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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-30-17 | North Texas v. Southern Miss -7.5 | Top | 43-28 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 2 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Southern Miss Golden Eagles minus the points over North Texas. These two teams have traded home wins (and covers) the past two seasons, with North Texas pulling the upset last season in Denton. This season, both teams are off to decent starts. Southern Miss has covered each of its three games this season (winning straight-up twice), including a 28-17 win two weeks ago at Louisiana Monroe (Southern Miss had last week off). North Texas is 2-2 (after going 5-8 last season), and won last week, at home, vs. UAB, but gave up 43 points in the process. And it has given up 54, 31 and 43 points in its three games this season vs. FBS (Division 1) schools. That doesn't bode well, here, vs. Southern Miss, as the Golden Eagles have cashed 86% since 1980 when playing with rest, if they owned a defense at least 11 ppg better than their foe. And North Texas is also 0-8 ATS when playing a rested opponent, if the Mean Green are priced from +4.5 to +11.5 points. Finally, Conference USA home teams are 27-11 ATS when rested, and playing with revenge vs. an unrested conference foe (including 21-5 ATS vs. .400 or better foes). Take Southern Miss. |
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09-30-17 | Iowa +3.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -109 | 84 h 30 m | Show |
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes + the points over Michigan State. Both the Hawkeyes and Spartans come into Saturday's game off losses. But Iowa played great in its defeat, with a narrow 2-point loss vs. Penn State. In contrast, Michigan St was blown out, 38-18, by Notre Dame. We'll take the points with Iowa, as it falls into 217-109 and 167-89 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams, in conference games, off a loss. Moreover, this is a series which has been dominated by the Hawkeyes. Since 1988, Iowa is 15-5-1 ATS vs. Michigan State, including 10-0-1 ATS when priced from +3 to +21 points! And Michigan State is a woeful 24-51 ATS off a loss, if its W/L percentage was .500 or better. Take Iowa. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-30-17 | Arizona State v. Stanford -14.5 | Top | 24-34 | Loss | -110 | 84 h 13 m | Show |
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Stanford Cardinal minus the points over Arizona State. Last week, we played on the Sun Devils as a 14.5-point underdog, and were rewarded with an outright win over Oregon. That leveled ASU's record at 2-2, and they'll now travel to Palo Alto to take on Stanford, which is also 2-2 following its 58-34 blowout of UCLA. We'll play against Arizona State, as it is a poor 0-8 ATS as road underdogs off an upset win vs. foes not off an upset win. Meanwhile, Stanford is a powerful 50-20 ATS in the regular season vs. conference foes, if it's off a win by 13+ points, and also covered the spread in that previous game. Take Stanford. |
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09-30-17 | Baylor +17 v. Kansas State | Top | 20-33 | Win | 100 | 84 h 44 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Baylor Bears + the points over Kansas State. Last week, the Bears played great, and almost upset the Oklahoma Sooners, as a 28-point underdog. They lost by just eight points, 49-41, but easily covered the spread by 20 points. Off that impressive game, I look for Baylor to once again get the cash as a double-digit underdog, as it is 14-3 ATS its last 17 conference games when getting 11+ points. And it's also an awesome 18-0 ATS since 2011 when coming off a double-digit cover in its previous game, provided it's not favored by 32+ points. Take the points with Baylor. |
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09-30-17 | New Mexico State v. Arkansas -16.5 | Top | 24-42 | Win | 100 | 81 h 23 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Arkansas Razorbacks minus the points over New Mexico State. The Aggies blew out Texas El Paso last week, 41-14, as a 17-point favorite. And that win extended New Mexico State's ATS run to 4-0 this season. The knee-jerk reaction might be to take the double-digits with New Mexico State, especially since Arkansas has yet to cover the pointspread this season. But consider that, since 1980, College Football underdogs of +14 or more points are an awful 37-62 ATS away from home off 4+ ATS wins in a row! And New Mexico State's a poor 5-12 ATS on the road off back to back covers. Take the Razorbacks. NCAA High Noon Hanging. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-30-17 | Northwestern +15 v. Wisconsin | Top | 24-33 | Win | 100 | 79 h 8 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Northwestern Wildcats + the points over Wisconsin. Northwestern bounced back off its upset loss at Duke in Week 2 to blow out Bowling Green, 49-7, in its third game. The Wildcats are now 2-1 SU, and will take on undefeated (3-0) Wisconsin, in Madison, on Saturday. The Wildcats also had last weekend off, and fall into a 93-34 ATS system of mine which plays on certain rested underdogs of +7 or more points. Additionally, Big 10 underdogs of 7+ points, with a winning record, have cashed 76.1% since 1980 when playing with rest vs. conference foes off back to back wins. Take Northwestern. Big 10 Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-29-17 | Nebraska -5.5 v. Illinois | Top | 28-6 | Win | 100 | 3 h 49 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Nebraska Cornhuskers minus the points over Illinois, as Illinois falls into several negative systems of mine, with records of 87-169, 37-107, and 75-176 ATS since 1980. Nebraska won its Big 10 opener last week vs. Rutgers, but failed to cover the 11-point spread, as it won by just 10, 27-17. Illinois, meanwhile, plays its conference opener tonight. So far this season, the Illini have not made many friends in Vegas, as they come into this game with a 1-2 ATS record, which is par for the course, as they have been a consistent money-burner over the years. Since 2002, Illinois is 65-96 ATS, including 33-64 when the pointspread was less than 11 points. Nebraska, on the other hand, has been solid as a road team vs. Big 10 Conference foes, including 8-2 ATS vs. foes off a loss. And the 'Huskers are also 42-24 ATS on the road when favored and not off a SU/ATS win. Take Nebraska. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-29-17 | Astros v. Red Sox UNDER 10 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 1 h 8 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Boston/Houston game. Charlie Morton gets the start for the Astros, and his ERA over his last three starts is 2.00. He's also 6-3 with a 3.00 ERA over his last 11 starts. He'll be opposed by Doug Fister tonight. Fister has had an up-and-down season, but did pitch well in his last start (5 1-3 innings, 3 runs, 0 walks and 9 strikeouts). Both pitchers also have good career numbers vs. their opponent: Fister's lifetime ERA vs. Houston is 2.77, while Morton's career ERA vs. Boston is 0.00. Take the 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-28-17 | Texas v. Iowa State +6.5 | Top | 17-7 | Loss | -115 | 43 h 35 m | Show |
At 8 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Iowa State Cyclones + the points over Texas. Iowa State comes into this game on a 3-game ATS win streak following its blowout victory at Akron (41-14) on Sept. 16. Texas also played 12 days ago, and suffered a tough 3-point loss at Southern Cal, 27-24. That defeat has placed Texas into 3 negative systems of mine, with records of 59-124, 79-142 and 217-336. Meanwhile, the fact that Iowa State is playing with a week of rest at home, and also with revenge, has triggered several very good systems on the Cyclones with records of 39-10, 50-22, 112-73, 107-56 and 43-23. Finally, the Cyclones have scored more than 40 points in each of their first three games this season. And NCAA home underdogs of 5+ points have cashed a super 91% since 1980 vs. conference foes if our home dog scored 40+ points in its three previous games. Take Iowa State. NCAA High Roller. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-25-17 | Nationals v. Phillies -140 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -140 | 4 h 45 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Washington Nationals. The Nats clinched home field advantage in the Division Series playoff round with their win yesterday vs. the Mets. And, though it's remotely possible to catch the Dodgers for the overall best record, it's so unlikely that there really isn't much left to play for over the next week. Tonight, Dusty Baker will hand the ball to AJ Cole, who will make his eighth start of the season. Unfortunately, his first seven didn't go so well (2-5, 4.43 ERA). He'll match up against Aaron Nola, who is 1-0 with a 3.31 ERA in his four previous starts vs. Washington this season. And the Phillies are a perfect 7-0 in Nola's home starts when he's worked on extra rest this season (he last started six days ago). And, in those seven games, Nola not only went 7-0, but his ERA was 1.27. Take Philly. High Roller Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-24-17 | Seahawks +3 v. Titans | Top | 27-33 | Loss | -125 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Seahawks + the points over Tennessee. The Seahawks have gotten off to a slow start this season. They lost, 17-9, at Green Bay in Week 1. And then only scored 12 points vs. a poor San Francisco team last week, but eked out a 12-9 victory. But we've seen this before with Pete Carroll's squad. Indeed, just last season, Seattle scored just 15 points over its first two games. And the previous year, it actually LOST its first two games outright, but still managed to go 10-6 that season. So, it's not yet time to panic. And, for technical support, consider that Seattle is an awesome 54-25-2 ATS after failing to score 20+ points in its two previous games, including a perfect 11-0 ATS under coach Carroll! Additionally, Tennessee falls into negative 23-59 and 48-95 ATS systems of mine. Take Seattle. Road Warrior Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-24-17 | Cubs v. Brewers +118 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Chicago Cubs. If the Brewers don't make the 2017 post-season, they can look no further than the evening of September 20. Coming into the final game of the Pirates series, the Crew had won three straight. And on Wednesday, they had a 4-3 lead in the bottom of eighth. Coach Craig Counsell decided to put his closer in for the infamous "four-out save." But that move backfired as Corey Knebel threw a ball away, which resulted in a run. And then he gave up a two-run, walk-off in the ninth to take the loss. Because of that, Knebel was unavailable the following night in the first game of this Cubs series, and the Brewers lost again late in the game. On Friday, Knebel was back on the mound, but lost again, and all of a sudden the Brewers were 5 1/2 games behind the Cubs in the Central and one game out in the Wild Card race. Yesterday saw yet another nail-biter between these two. However, the Brewers snatched victory from the jaws of defeat when Travis Shaw hit a walk-off HR in the bottom of the 10th to secure the "must-win," and now sit just one game behind the Rockies for the final Playoff berth. This afternoon, in the fourth and final game of the series, the Brewers have to deal with a very tough customer in LHP Jose Quintana, who has gone 6-3 with a 3.95 ERA since joining the Cubbies at the end of July. The good news, though, for Milwaukee is that it will hand the ball to Chase Anderson, who has been unbeatable over his last three starts. Anderson's ERA over those starts is 0.55, and his WHIP was 0.91. Milwaukee's 9-4 as an underdog this season with Anderson on the hill, while Quintana's teams have gone 8-13 as a road favorite when he's started. Take the Brewers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-24-17 | Texans +14 v. Patriots | Top | 33-36 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over New England. These two teams met in the Playoffs last season, and the Patriots came away with a 34-16 victory. And they also whitewashed Houston, 27-0, in the regular season last year. But we'll grab the points with the Texans, as they fall into an 18-0 ATS Playoff revenge system of mine. Moreover, New England's defense has greatly fallen off from last year's numbers. In 2016, it gave up just 15.6 ppg in the regular season. But through its first two games this season, New England is surrendering 31 ppg. That certainly augurs poorly for them. And with respect to this game, it's worth noting that favorites of -9 or more points are a soft 49-80 ATS since 1980 when they give up more than 24 ppg. Take Houston. Payback Payday. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-24-17 | Falcons v. Lions +3 | Top | 30-26 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over Atlanta. The Falcons suffered a brutal loss in last year's Super Bowl, as they collapsed after being up by 25 points over New England. And, generally speaking, the teams that lost the Super Bowl the previous season have a somewhat difficult time the next year. So far, Atlanta hasn't shown any ill effects, as it's 2-0 straight-up and 1-1 ATS. But I expect it to stumble on Sunday, vs. the undefeated Lions. Indeed, teams that lost the Super Bowl the previous year are a poor 4-27-2 ATS as non-division road favorites priced from PK to -4, including 1-12 ATS if their win percentage was .700 (or better). Even better: home underdogs of +3 or more points, with a winning record, off a SU/ATS road win are 64% ATS since 1980 vs. foes off a SU/ATS win. Take Detroit. NFL Roadkill. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-24-17 | East Carolina +4.5 v. Connecticut | Top | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 58 h 39 m | Show |
At 12 Noon on Sunday, our selection is on the East Carolina Pirates + the points over Connecticut. The hurricane season wrecked havoc on the College Football schedule, so we'll have a rare Sunday college football game this weekend. Interestingly, both teams have yet to cover the pointspread this season. East Carolina is 0-3 SU/ATS, while Connecticut is 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS. We'll grab the points with East Carolina, as UConn falls into a negative 44-124 ATS system of mine, which fades certain home favorites vs. teams with a losing ATS record. Additionally, East Carolina has excelled as road underdogs of less than 8 points, as it's 28-15 ATS in this role, including 11-0 ATS if it lost its previous game by 9+ points. Finally, Connecticut is a dreadful 0-7-1 ATS at home when PK/Favored since September 2012. Take the Pirates. High Noon Hanging. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-23-17 | Oregon v. Arizona State +14.5 | Top | 35-37 | Win | 100 | 45 h 59 m | Show |
At 10 pm, our selection is on the Arizona State Sun Devils + the points over Oregon. Oregon went 3-0 in its non-conference schedule, and now opens Pac-12 Conference play vs. Arizona State. It's true the Sun Devils are 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS this season. But Arizona State has played a much more difficult schedule than Oregon, as the Sun Devils' two losses were to San Diego State and Texas Tech, both of which are unbeaten on the season. We'll grab the double-digits with Arizona State, as ASU falls into an 89-38 ATS system of mine which plays on certain home dogs off 3 ATS losses. Also, the Sun Devils are a super 25-8-1 ATS at home vs. foes that covered by 10+ points in their previous game, including a perfect 8-0-1 ATS if ASA wasn't favored by 3+ points. Take the Sun Devils. NCAA High Roller. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-23-17 | Mississippi State v. Georgia -4 | Top | 3-31 | Win | 100 | 43 h 32 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Bulldogs minus the points over Mississippi State Bulldogs. Last week, we played on Mississippi State, and got the $$$ when it upset LSU, 37-7, as an 8-point underdog. Unfortunately for Mississippi State, it's cashed just 25% on the road over the past 25 years off an upset win (including 0-5 ATS its last 5). And NCAA teams are a woeful 0-13 ATS since 2005 off an upset win by more than 28 points, if they were a dog of more than 3 in that upset win, and they're now matched up against a conference foe off back to back wins. Take Georgia. NCAA Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-23-17 | Syracuse v. LSU -21.5 | Top | 26-35 | Loss | -110 | 67 h 10 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the LSU Tigers minus the points over Syracuse. LSU was upset by Mississippi State, 37-7, as an 8.5-point favorite last week, while Syracuse won at home, 41-17, over Central Michigan. But off their defeat -- where they failed to cover by 38.5 point -- I look for the LSU Tigers to rebound in a big way on Saturday evening. Indeed, teams off an upset loss are an awesome 51-20 ATS in the regular season if they failed to cover the spread by 35 or more points in their previous game, and their opponent is off a home win. The Tigers are also a super 13-4 ATS in non-conference games off a pointspread defeat by 14+ points, including 9-1 ATS at home. Take LSU. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-23-17 | San Diego State v. Air Force +3.5 | Top | 28-24 | Loss | -110 | 65 h 33 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Air Force Falcons + the points over San Diego State. The Aztecs pulled a huge upset last week when they won at home, 20-17, as an 8-point underdog vs. Stanford. That was also San Diego State's 2nd straight upset win, as they knocked off Arizona State on the road, 30-20, as a 3-point underdog the previous week. Unfortunately for the Aztecs, road favorites tend to have a difficult time following an upset win as a 6-point (or greater) home dog, as they've covered just 36% since 1980. Even worse: Air Force is 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS vs. conference foes off upset wins, while San Diego State is an awful 13-27 ATS off an upset win. Take the Falcons + the points. NCAA Underdog of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-23-17 | UL-Monroe +7 v. UL-Lafayette | Top | 56-50 | Win | 100 | 39 h 23 m | Show |
At 5 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana Monroe Warhawks + the points over the Louisiana Lafayette Rajin' Cajuns. The Warhawks lost last year to their rival, 30-3, so they'll be looking for some payback on Saturday. And, like many heated rivalries, the revenge-minded team in this series has gone 12-7 ATS, including 10-2 ATS as an underdog. Even better: the road team in this series is a perfect 15-0 ATS when not laying more than 4 points! Finally, Monroe checks into this game off back to back losses. But it's a sensational 20-5 ATS on the Conference road when it's lost its previous two games. Take Monroe + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-23-17 | TCU v. Oklahoma State -12.5 | Top | 44-31 | Loss | -105 | 62 h 60 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma State Cowboys minus the points over TCU. The Cowboys blew out Pittsburgh last week in the Steel City, 59-21. And the game wasn't even that close, as Okie State was up 49-7 late in the 2nd quarter before calling off the dogs. The Cowboys have now scored 59, 44, and 59 in their first three games this season. They've also won by margins of 35, 37, and 38 points. Not surprisingly, the Cowboys are a perfect 3-0 ATS. They'll now take on a fellow Top 25 foe in Big 12 Conference rival TCU. The Horned Frogs have lost the last two meetings to the Cowboys, and four of the five meetings since TCU joined the Conference in 2012. Based on their season statistics-to-date, the Cowboys fall into several of my best systems, with records of 111-43, 84-26 and 94-22 ATS. Additionally, Oklahoma State has been terrific following games in which it scored 50+ points, as it's 35-8 ATS since 1987, including 14-1 ATS if the Cowboys are in off back to back SU/ATS wins. The Cowboys are also 44-25 ATS when priced from -10.5 to -24 points. Finally, TCU is 4-10 ATS its last 14 games, while Big 12 Conference teams are a poor 48-78 vs. foes off a win that average 44+ points per game on offense. Take Oklahoma State. Big 12 Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-23-17 | Miami-OH +2 v. Central Michigan | Top | 31-14 | Win | 100 | 64 h 35 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Ohio Red Hawks plus the points over Central Michigan. The Red Hawks lost their third straight game ATS last week when they were upset, 21-17, by Cincinnati. But unlike their first three games (where they were favored), the Red Hawks are an underdog at CMU this Saturday. And Miami's 10-2 ATS their last 12 as an underdog. Even better: Mid-American Conference road underdogs are 60-34 ATS on a 3-game ATS losing streak. Take Miami. |
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09-23-17 | Central Florida v. Maryland -4 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 44 m | Show |
At 3 pm, our selection is on the Maryland Terrapins minus the points over Central Florida. Both of these teams were off last week (and Central Florida actually hasn't played since August 31, due to the hurricanes). Maryland comes in off impressive wins over Texas (51-41) and Towson (63-17), while the Knights triumphed in their initial game, 61-17, vs. Florida International. Last season, these two teams met in Orlando, and the Terps won, 30-24. I look for them to win again, as home favorites of -10 points or less (or PK) have covered 69.5% in the regular season since 1984 vs. non-conference foes. Additionally, Maryland is 28-13-1 ATS off back to back wins, when favored by more than 3 points. And they also fall into 300-205, 84-26 and 187-89 ATS systems of mine. Lay it. NCAA Non-Conference Game of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-23-17 | Ohio v. Eastern Michigan -2.5 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 62 h 6 m | Show |
At 2 pm, our selection is on the Eastern Michgian Eagles minus the points over Ohio. The Eagles had last week off following their upset win at Rutgers in Week 2. And they're a perfect 2-0 SU/ATS on the season. The Eagles have largely relied on their defense, which is giving up just 10 ppg on the season (Ohio, on the other hand, is giving up 24.67 ppg). We'll lay the points with Eastern Michigan, as home teams that give up 10.5 or less points per game, are 67% ATS since 1990 at Game 3 forward, if they're undefeated both SU and ATS, and not laying 4+ points. Take Eastern Michigan. |
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09-23-17 | Cubs v. Brewers +117 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 117 | 2 h 36 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over Chicago. The Brewers fell further behind the Rockies last night, as Colorado won, while Milwaukee lost in extra innings. With just eight days to go in the season, each game is critical at this point. This afternoon, it's Brent Suter vs. Kyle Hendricks. The Cubs have struggled in day games this season, with a 34-34 record (minus 21 games on the moneyline), compared to 52-33 under the lights. And, when Hendricks has started in the daytime, Chicago's 3-8. Suter, on the other hand, has a 1.17 daytime ERA. Furthermore, Suter has faced the Cubs once this season (back in July), and threw seven scoreless innings. He also has a 1.64 ERA over his last three starts. And Milwaukee's 21-10 when playing with double-revenge vs. an opponent this season. Take the Brewers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-22-17 | Giants v. Dodgers -215 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 19 h 2 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over San Francisco. The Giants just finished up a home stand, in which they went 4-4. But, now, it's back to the road where the Giants have compiled a 24-51 record this season (minus 26 games on the moneyline). And they've especially struggled as a road underdog of +150 or more (5-18 this season; 10-37 the last three years).  The Dodgers are 123-38 their last 161 (+34 games on the moneyline) as home favorites of -200 or more. Take Los Angeles. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-22-17 | Rockies -160 v. Padres | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 19 h 2 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Rockies over San Diego. The Rockies are hanging onto their Wild Card berth by a thread following their 4th straight defeat last night, 3-0, to the Padres. But I love them to snap their losing streak tonight, as they'll face Jordan Lyles on the mound. Lyles virtually never makes a quality start (he's had just one quality start among his last 14 starts), and his ERA this season is a nasty 8.78. In contrast, Jon Gray has had quality starts in six of his last seven outings, and brings a solid (especially for a Colorado pitcher) 3.75 ERA into tonight's contest. Lyles' teams have won just 35 of 105 games with him as the starter, including 9-34 when priced from +125 to +175. Take Colorado. |
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09-22-17 | Cubs v. Brewers +110 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 27 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Chicago Cubs. The Brew Crew lost a heartbreaker last night, but luckily stayed within a game of the Rockies, who fell once again to the Padres. We'll take Milwaukee to bounce back off its defeat, as it's 9-4 its last 13 following a loss, while the Cubs are a poor 12-16 on the season when priced between -125 and +125. Moreover, John Lackey has struggled on the road this season, with an ERA of 5.38. Take the Brewers. |
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09-21-17 | Rangers v. Mariners -150 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -150 | 20 h 15 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Texas Rangers. After taking the last three of a four game series from this Rangers club at the beginning of last week to move closer to a Wild Card spot, the Mariners then lost four straight games, including a sweep at the hands of the Astros. So with their post-season chances fading fast, the M's look to bounce back tonight as a pair of veteran southpaws go to the hill in a critical game in Seattle. James Paxton was cruising along with quality starts in nine straight outings before going down with an injury in early August. And in his return last Friday, Paxton lasted just 1 1/3 innings against the Astros. But one of Paxton's best outings was an eight-inning shutout performance right here against the Rangers back on April 15. The other veteran left-hander, Cole Hamels, will go to the mound for the Rangers tonight. Hamels has had a decent season in Texas (10-4 with a 3.96 ERA in 21 starts), however his team is 1-3 in his last four starts vs. the Mariners. Heading into Thursday, the Rangers are 3-7 in the last 10 meetings in Seattle, while Seattle's won seven of Paxton's last nine starts. Seattle's also 10-2 this season behind Paxton when priced from -125 to -175. Take the Mariners. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-21-17 | Rams v. 49ers OVER 39.5 | Top | 41-39 | Win | 100 | 27 h 1 m | Show |
At 8:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers to go 'over' the total, as it falls into 57-27 and 106-69 Totals Systems of mine. The Over/Under line on this game opened at 42, but has dropped considerably since then as a majority of bettors seem to be looking for a low-scoring contest. It's true that both defenses have played well this season (SF is giving up just 17.5 ppg, while the Rams are allowing 18 ppg). But I look for a relatively high-scoring game on Thursday, as NFL games have gone 'over' the total 314-231 (57.6) if the defenses of both teams gave up, on average, less than 18.5 ppg, and the over/under line was less than 40 points. Take the 'over.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-20-17 | Indians v. Angels +100 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Anaheim Angels over the Cleveland Indians. The Indians had an historic streak of 22 straight victories broken on Friday night by the Royals, but since that 4-3 loss, the Tribe has started another winning streak. And speaking of streaks, Cleveland has a pretty good one against tonight's opponent as well, as it's 9-0 in the last nine meetings with the Angels going back to June of last season. But streaks always come to an end, and I like the Angels on Wednesday night at home, as they're 225-176 (+41 games on the moneyline) when priced from +125 to -125 at home. And they're also 42-31 this season (+17 games on the moneyline) off a loss. Take the Angels. MLB High Roller Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-19-17 | Indians v. Angels -105 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 50 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Anaheim Angels over the Cleveland Indians. With Minnesota's loss last night, Anaheim has moved to within 1.5 games of the final playoff spot in the American League. Thus, tonight's game is ultra-critical for the Angels. They'll hand the ball to southpaw Tyler Skaggs, who comes into this game off his best performance of the season -- a 3-hit, 0-run, 7-inning effort vs. Houston. The Angels are 92-58 (+15 games on the moneyline) as a home favorite, and 14-7 off back to back games where they failed to register more than 5 hits. Take the Angels. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-19-17 | Dodgers -157 v. Phillies | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -157 | 16 h 15 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Philadelphia Phillies. The Dodgers just went into DC for what could be a preview of the NLCS and proceeded to beat the Nats in two out of three games. Now they travel north about 2 1/2 hours to face the Phillies in what you think would be an even easier series for them. However in game one on Monday with their ace -- Clayton Kershaw -- on the mound, the Dodgers lost to the Phils. They'll reload and try again tonight as their newest star pitcher, Yu Darvish, goes to the hill for his eighth start as a member of this team. Darvish's numbers certainly don't jump off the page at you -- 3-3 with a 4.34 ERA in just over 37 innings -- but he's still one of the more difficult RH veterans to face in the league and a strikeout artist at the age of 31. Darvish has never pitched in Philadelphia before, but he may find the ballpark and the young Phillies lineup very much to his liking. RH pitcher Aaron Nola has pitched very well of late, but six of his last seven starts have come against the Giants, Mets, Braves, and Marlins (three starts). So it's safe to say he is looking at a major bump in class tonight against the Dodgers, who have won an NL-best 93 games. The Dodgers have taken seven of the last 10 meetings. Meanwhile, Philly is an awful 66-119 (-22 games on the moneyline) when priced from +125 to +175. Take L.A. |
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09-19-17 | Cubs v. Rays -109 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 56 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs have won six straight, but tonight's starter, Mike Montgomery, has not participated in this success. Indeed, he's been bombed in his last two starts (9.00 ERA; 1.71 WHIP), and his teams are 5-16 off a win, with him on the mound. He'll be matched up against Chris Archer tonight. Archer has faced the Cubbies twice in his career (3.00 ERA), and the Rays won both of those starts. Take Tampa Bay. |
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09-18-17 | Lions v. Giants -3 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants minus the points over the Detroit Lions. Last week, the Giants scored just three points in a 19-3 loss at Dallas, while Detrolt put up 35 points in an upset win vs. Arizona. But I look for the Giants to bounce back at home, tonight, on Monday. Indeed, losing teams off a straight-up loss, and an ATS defeat by 8+ points, have covered 68% when favored (or PK) vs. winning foes off a straight-up win. Moreover, the Giants have cashed 67% as home favorites on Monday Night Football the past 34 seasons, while the Lions are an awful 27% the past 23 years on the road off an upset win, including 0-10 ATS if they covered the spread by more than 11 points in their previous game. Take New York. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-17-17 | Browns +8 v. Ravens | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 3 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over Baltimore. Last week, the Ravens stunned the Bengals, 20-0. Though that victory was no doubt impressive, the fact that the Houston Texans also embarrassed the Bengals at home, with a 13-9 victory this past Thursday, combined with the firing of Cincy's offensive coordinator, Ken Zampese on Friday, leads me to believe that Baltimore's victory was primarily a result of Cincy's internal problems. Cleveland, meanwhile, lost by 3 points to the Steelers in Week 1, but covered the point spread. And I look for the Browns to make it two straight covers in a row today. It's true that the Ravens won and covered both meetings last season. Unfortunately, home favorites off an upset division win have covered just 3 of 25 vs. revenge-minded division rivals not off an upset division win. Take Cleveland. NFL Division Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-16-17 | Troy -6.5 v. New Mexico State | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -115 | 64 h 46 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Troy State Trojans minus the points over New Mexico State, as the Trojans fall into 91-23, 165-92, 58-7 and 83-45 ATS Systems of mine. Both Troy St. and New Mexico St. are 1-1 this season after posting wins last last week. The Trojans blew out Alabama St, 34-7, at home, while the Aggies went on the road to upset their cross-state rival, New Mexico, 30-28. Unfortunately for the Aggies, Sun Belt teams are 0-9 ATS in home conference games off an upset win, if they're getting more than 3 points vs. foes also off a win. Additionally, the Aggies have been destroyed each of the last three years by Troy, and have lost by an average of 36 ppg. Take the Trojans. Conf. Game of the Year. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-16-17 | Cincinnati v. Miami-OH -5 | Top | 21-17 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 47 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Ohio Red Hawks minus the points over Cincinnati. To say that Miami will be out for revenge tonight is a massive understatement. That's because the Red Hawks have lost the last 11 meetings to the Bearcats. But they were underdogs in each of those 11 games. Indeed, the last time they were actually favored vs. Cincy was in 2005, and they blew them out, 44-16. They're favored again this year, and I love Miami to register another blowout, as it falls into a 60-28 ATS revenge system of mine. Additionally, it's worth noting the Bearcats are a horrid 28-48-2 ATS since 1984 away from home when installed as an underdog vs. non-conference foes, while Miami's 6-0 ATS its last 6 when playing with revenge vs. non-conference foes. Take Miami. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-16-17 | Clemson v. Louisville +3.5 | Top | 47-21 | Loss | -115 | 41 h 45 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Louisville Cardinals + the points over Clemson. The Cardinals and Tigers each recorded big wins last week. Louisville outlasted North Carolina, 47-35, while Clemson defeated Auburn, 14-6. Last year, the Tigers beat the Cardinals, 42-36, en route to a 14-0 Championship season. And the Tigers are off to a 2-0 SU/ATS start this season. But that sets up Clemson in a nasty situation on Saturday afternoon. Since 1981, defending National Champs are a woeful 0-9 ATS away from home, if they're off back-to-back SU/ATS wins, unrested, and not favored by 7+ points. That doesn't bode well for Clemson vs. Louisville. And neither does the fact that it hasn't given up 7+ points in either of its first two games. Indeed, since 1982, teams off back-to-back games where they didn't give up 7+ points, have covered just 9 of 48 road games vs. foes off a SU/ATS win by more than 7 points. Take Louisville. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-16-17 | Bowling Green v. Northwestern -21.5 | Top | 7-49 | Win | 100 | 39 h 22 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Northwestern Wildcats minus the points over Bowling Green. The Falcons and Wildcats are both 0-2 ATS on the season following upset losses by each team last week. Northwestern was drilled 41-17, by Duke, while Bowling Green lost, 35-27, to South Dakota. We'll lay the points with Northwestern, as favorites of -21+ points, off 21-point (or greater) upset losses, have covered over 65% of the time since 1983. Take Northwestern. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-16-17 | Tulsa v. Toledo -9 | Top | 51-54 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 32 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Toledo Rockets minus the points over Tulsa, as Tulsa falls into a negative 46-102 ATS system of mine which plays against teams with poor defenses. And the Golden Hurricane's defense has been a sieve so far this season, as it's given up over 50 ppg. Unfortunately for Tulsa, teams off wins, that give up more than 43.3 ppg (at Game 3 forward), have covered just 31% since 1980 if they won their previous game. Even worse: Toledo's been one of the best home teams (ATS) in College Football over the years, as it's gone 53-35 ATS its last 88, including 14-2 ATS vs. non-winning teams off a straight-up win. Finally, Toledo has cashed 73.6% vs. non-conference foes when priced as a favorite of 23 or less points. Take Toledo. NCAA Roadkill Winner! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-16-17 | LSU v. Mississippi State +7.5 | Top | 7-37 | Win | 100 | 39 h 45 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs + the points over LSU. Mississippi State is averaging 53 ppg after winning (and covering) their first two games by 49-0 and 57-21 counts.  Off those two big wins, we'll grab the points with Miss State, as teams off back to back SU/ATS wins have cashed 66% since 1980 if they average 45+ ppg, are matched up against an opponent off a SU win, and aren't favored by more than 3 points. Take Mississippi State. |
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09-16-17 | Louisiana Tech +7 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 23-22 | Win | 100 | 39 h 44 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs + the points over Western Kentucky. These two teams met in the Conference USA Championship game last season, and the Hilltoppers downed La Tech, 58-44. But I look for the Bulldogs to get a measure of revenge on Saturday, as teams playing with revenge from a post-season defeat are 27-11 ATS when priced from -3.5 to +7.5 points. Moreover, the Bulldogs were blown out at home last week, 57-21, by Mississippi State, while the Hilltoppers lost, 20-7, to Illinois. But La Tech is a super 10-0 ATS off a home loss, if they're playing an opponent also off a defeat. Take Louisiana Tech. |
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09-16-17 | Middle Tennessee State v. Minnesota -9 | Top | 3-34 | Win | 100 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Golden Gophers minus the points over Middle Tennessee State, as Minnesota falls into a 112-35 ATS System of mine. The Gophers are off to a 2-0 start this season, under 1st year coach PJ Fleck, following their blowout, upset win at Oregon State last week, 48-14 (as a 2.5-point underdog). And this is the first time in over 60 years that a Gophers squad has started 2-0 under a new head coach. Minnesota has dominated all facets of the game, as they outgained the Beavers last week, 411 yards to 225, and Buffalo, 408-262 the week before that. Now, Minnesota returns home for the last game on its non-conference slate. And the Gophers have excelled at home vs. non-conference foes over the years, and especially when matched up against non-winning foes. In that situation, Minnesota's 28-7 SU and 24-11 ATS. In the Blue Raiders' last game, 3rd year-QB Brent Stockstill (son of Middle Tennessee head coach Rick Stockstill) sustained an injury to his left (throwing) shoulder, but remained in the contest through its conclusion. He underwent an MRI earlier this week, but the results have not yet been made public. I do expect him to play, but don't necessarily expect him to be at full strength, so that's a negative for Middle Tenn. Moreover, even with Stockstill in the lineup, the Blue Raiders' offense has underwhelmed this season. Middle Tennessee is averaging just 18 ppg, on just 289 yards of offense. In contrast, Minnesota is averaging 32.5 ppg, on 409.5 yards per game.  It also doesn't hurt that coach Fleck has experience vs. this Stockstill-led Middle Tennessee squad, as his former team (Western Michigan) defeated Middle Tenn., 45-31, two seasons ago in the Bahamas Bowl. Finally, Conference USA teams are poor 8-41 SU and 18-31 ATS in the regular season vs. Big 10 Conference foes. Lay the points with Minnesota. HIGH ROLLER WINNER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-16-17 | UCLA v. Memphis +3.5 | Top | 45-48 | Win | 100 | 55 h 14 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers + the points over UCLA. The Bruins are 2-0 on the season, after crushing Hawaii, 56-23. That was UCLA's 2nd straight home game. The Bruins will take to the road for the first time this season, and they'll have the disadvantage of facing a well-rested Tigers squad, which was off last week after routing Louisiana-Monroe, 37-29, in their first game. I look for the Tigers to register an upset, as UCLA's a wallet-busting 14-34-1 ATS away from home off back to back wins, including 0-7 ATS vs. non-conference foes. And it's 0-9 ATS its last 9 after scoring more than 35 points in a SU/ATS Win the previous week. Additionally, the Tigers fall into a 17-0 ATS system of mine, based on their performance in their first game. Take Memphis + the points. NCAA High Noon Hanging. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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09-15-17 | Blue Jays -107 v. Twins | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Minnesota Twins. Their multitude of pitching injuries has meant that 44-year-old RHP Bartolo Colon is going to continue to have a job in the Twins rotation as they battle down the stretch for an AL Wild Card spot. That may be a good thing for Colon, but a bad thing for the Twins as the veteran is clearly past his prime and has been struggling this season. Colon is 6-12 with a 6.41 ERA in 24 overall starts, although he has been better since signing with the Twins after being released from the Braves. But Colon's recent Minnesota outings have not gone that well as he is 0-2 with a 6.91 ERA in his last three starts covering just 14 1/3 innings. The Blue Jays will go with LHP J.A. Happ. Happ has allowed just a single earned run in each of this last three starts and he'll be looking for some revenge tonight as on August 25, Happ took his 10th (and most recent loss) in a game that he really didn't pitch that badly in. This has been an incredibly one-sided series lately, as the Jays are 49-19 in the last 68 meetings. Even more telling for tonight's game is the fact that Toronto is 22-9 in the last 31 meetings in Minneapolis. Take the Bue Jays. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-15-17 | Cardinals +104 v. Cubs | Top | 2-8 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 16 m | Show |
At 2:20 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals. St. Louis is still hopeful of catching the Cubs for the NL Central Division title, and this series will go a long way toward determining that. Today, the Cards will had the ball to their ace, Carlos Martinez. He's dominated the Cubs this year, as he is 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA in three starts. And the Cards have also won 20 of their past 31 games. Meanwhile, Chicago is a poor 6-11 off a win by more than 5 runs. Take St. Louis. |
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09-15-17 | Cardinals v. Cubs UNDER 9 | Top | 2-8 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 16 m | Show |
At 2:20 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the St. Louis/Chicago game. The Cubs exploded for 14 runs against Seth Lugo and the Mets last night (and 17 runs the day before that). Unfortunately, the Cubs' offense generally underperforms off a win by more than 5 runs, as it's averaged just 3.5 runs per game (compared to 5.1 runs per game overall). And the Cubs' games have averaged just 7.4 runs after Chicago won by more than 5 runs in their previous game. This afternoon, of course, the Cubs won't be facing the likes of Seth Lugo; instead, they'll have to go against one of baseball's best pitchers in Carlos Martinez. Martinez has a 2.18 ERA over his last three starts. And St. Louis has gone 'under' in seven of its last eight games. The Cubs have also gone 'under' in 11 of 16 games this season at home, when priced as a favorite of -150 or less. Take the 'under'. |
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09-14-17 | New Mexico +15.5 v. Boise State | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 16 h 25 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico Lobos + the points over Boise State, as UNM falls into 195-134, 103-37 and 124-45 ATS Systems of mine. Let's take a look at our 195-134 ATS angle. That plays on road underdogs, priced from +3.5 to +17.5 points in conference games, off upset home losses, that have a win percentage of .333 (or better). Last week, New Mexico fell to 1-1 on the season when it lost at home, 30-28, to New Mexico State, as a 7.5-point favorite. But I love the Lobos to bounce back tonight, as they're 35-17-2 ATS off a home loss, including 10-1 ATS if they were upset in that previous home defeat. Even better: Boise's an awful 5-24 ATS its last 29 at home when laying 11+ points. Take New Mexico. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-14-17 | Royals +201 v. Indians | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 21 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Royals over the Cleveland Indians. The Indians now hold the record for the longest winning streak in the history of the American League and they have their sights set on the Major League record. But at some point, their good fortunes will come to an end, and there are some compelling reasons to think that it might be tonight against the Royals. For one thing, KC will send a very hot young pitcher to the mound in rookie RH Jakob Junis. Junis' numbers in his first season don't jump off the page at you at first glance (a 4.34 ERA for example) but he has caught fire of late. Consider the fact that Junis hasn't lost a game since June 29, and he's gone 5-0 in his last five decisions. Second, although that 4.34 ERA is far from ideal, it's down more than a run from the 5.66 number he had at the end of June. And Junis has given up more than two runs on just two occasions since that June 29 loss. The Tribe will go with RHP Josh Tomlin, and even though Tomlin looks to be just as hot as Junis lately, posting a 5-0 record with a 2.57 ERA in his last six starts, you have to consider the teams he's faced in those -- the Padres, Giants, Reds, White Sox, Tigers, and Orioles. Needless to say, this will be Tomlin's toughest assignment in a while. Finally, it's worth noting that, if this match-up had taken place three weeks ago, before the 21-game win streak, Cleveland would be favored -145, not the current price, north of -200. Admittedly, one can't ignore the 21-game win streak, but the point remains. If Cleveland was 16-5 its last 21, rather than 21-0, they wouldn't be favored by this price. Thus, there's significant value on the KC side. Take the Royals. MLB UNDERDOG of the YEAR. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-13-17 | Padres v. Twins UNDER 9 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 39 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres and Minnesota Twins 'under' the total. When the game in Minnesota between these two teams was over last night, the scoreboard looked more like it might have been a Vikings-Chargers game rather than Padres-Twins. Minnesota got their big bats out and did some yard work in completely dismantling the visitors by a score of 16-0. It's unlikely we'll see that kind of run production from the home team tonight, especially given that the pitching match-up is much better than it was yesterday. RHP Dinelson Lamet will go for the Padres opposite the Twins ace RH Ervin Santana. Lamet has had a serious run support issue lately. In his last four starts, Lamet has has allowed just seven runs in 22 2/3 innings, or an ERA below three runs. But in those four games, Lamet has gone 0-3 while the Padres are 0-4, largely due to the fact that they have managed a total of just three runs. Santana has faced the Padres a total of five times in his career (once with the Twins, twice with the Braves, and twice with the Angels) and the under is 5-0 in those. Take the 'under.' MLB Total of the Month. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-12-17 | Astros -129 v. Angels | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 16 h 57 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Los Angeles Angels. The combination of Houston's losing streak along with the incredible Cleveland winning streak has meant that the 'Stros have fallen behind the Tribe by one-and-a-half games in the battle for the top record in the A.L. and home field advantage in the post-season. So it might not be a good thing to be an Angels pitcher in this series after the 'Stros totaled just 15 runs in the four games this past weekend. Tonight will be the second start for newly-acquired Houston ace RH Justin Verlander, who was spared the Oakland series. Verlander made his Astros debut a successful one, allowing one run on six hits over six innings in a 3-1 victory over the Mariners in Seattle. The Stros are also 21-10 in the last 31 meetings with the Angels. Take Houston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-12-17 | A's v. Red Sox UNDER 9.5 | Top | 1-11 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Boston/Oakland game. The Red Sox may win the AL East when all is said and done, but can they really compete with the likes of the Indians and Astros with a five-man rotation that includes Doug Fister and Eduardo Rodriguez? On paper, it would seem the answer to that question is no. But the Sox have held on to their lead in the Division thanks to some solid performances from their less-than-ideal pitching staff. E-Rod will get his 21st start this evening coming off of a very nice effort in his last outing when he tossed six quality innings against the Blue Jays here at Fenway, allowing two runs on six hits with eight strikeouts and one walk in a 3-2 victory. A follow-up start against the team with the worst record in the league may be just what the LH needs to build some confidence heading into the final two weeks. He will surely have confidence, as his career ERA vs. Oakland is 1.69. Moreover, the A's should be due for an offensive let-down after an incredible weekend series in Houston in which they stunned the Astros by embarrassing them with a four-game sweep by a total score of 41-15. Take the 'under.' |
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09-12-17 | Orioles -123 v. Blue Jays | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -123 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Orioles over the Toronto Blue Jays. It's now or never for the Baltimore Orioles. After their fourth straight loss last night -- here at the Rogers Centre after being swept in Cleveland over the weekend -- the O's are now 3 1/2 games back in the AL Wild Card with a slew of other teams ahead of them. If they're going to make a run at a quickly-fading post-season spot, they're going to have to catch fire now. They certainly have the offense to do that, but the question -- as it's been all year -- is whether they have the pitching. The send their "Ace" to the mound tonight as RH Dylan Bundy goes for this 14th win in his 27th start. The good news is that in two previous starts against the Jays this season, Bundy has been dominant, going 2-0 with a 0.69 ERA, which means one run on nine hits in 13 innings with 14 strikeouts and just one walk. And in his previous start here in Toronto, Bundy threw six scoreless innings in an 11-4 beat-down back in April. Although Bundy has been far from perfect lately, the Orioles are 8-1 in his last nine starts. Take Baltimore. |
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09-11-17 | Dodgers -180 v. Giants | Top | 6-8 | Loss | -180 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
At 10:15 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the San Francisco Giants. The current struggles of the Dodgers may not be the greatest second-half fall-off in MLB history, but it's certainly worthy of being in the conversation. After a red hot streak put the Dodgers at an incredible 91-36 on August 25, the Boys in Blue have proceeded to lose 15 of their next 16 games heading into tonight. Nobody has been immune -- Yu Darvish, Rich Hill, or even Clayton Kershaw -- and the recent string of losses has meant that the red-hot Nationals are now within striking distance of seizing the best record in the National League away from L.A. The Dodgers will hit the reset button as they head into San Francisco to face the Giants in the first of three before heading east to face the aforementioned Nats in DC. And this is a huge step-down in class for Los Angeles when comparing the quality of opponents during its 1-15 stretch. Indeed, the four teams L.A. has played (Arizona, Milwaukee, Colorado, San Diego) have all been playing very good baseball. Arizona's won 16 of 19; Milwaukee 16 of 25; Colorado 6 of 7; and San Diego 8 of 13). San Francisco, on the other hand, has dropped five straight series, and is 4-12 over that time. RHP Kenta Maeda takes the mound in game one opposite RH rookie Chris Stratton. Stratton saw his streak of three consecutive quality starts come to an end in his last outing as he lasted just four innings against the Rockies, allowing three runs on eight hits with three walks in a 4-3 loss. The Dodgers are 5-1 in Maeda's last six starts during game one of a series as well as 9-2 in their last 11 road games vs. teams with a losing home record. Take L.A. High Roller Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-10-17 | Giants v. Cowboys -3.5 | Top | 3-19 | Win | 100 | 82 h 28 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points over New York. The Cowboys received welcome news when they learned that RB Ezekiel Elliott will be available for this key divisional contest vs. the Giants. And that was a key factor for me to pull the trigger on Dallas in this opener. It's true that the Giants upset the Cowboys in both meetings last season, to hand Dallas two of its three regular season losses. And it's also true that the Giants have won three straight in this series, overall. But NFC East division teams playing with revenge from 3+ losses to division rivals have gone 105-84-3 ATS since 1981, including 59-45-1 ATS at home. That bodes well for Jason Garrett's men on Sunday night. Even better: teams that won more than 10 games the previous season, and playing with revenge, have cashed 71% at home in Week 1 over the past 30 seasons, including 88% vs. division foes. Take Dallas. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-10-17 | Angels v. Mariners -122 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -122 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Los Angeles Angels. The Mariners made two "quiet" pitching acquisitions over the summer -- one at each of the two deadlines. At the August 31 deadline, the M's picked up Mike Leake from the Cardinals and that one barely caused a ripple. But if you think that went unnoticed, then how about Seattle's acquisition at the end of July of RHP Erasmo Ramirez from the Rays in exchange for former closer Steve Cishek?  For Ramirez, this is a homecoming of sorts, as the Mariners are the team that the Venezuelan originally broke into the league with back in 2012. Ramirez should pay some dividends for the M's down the stretch as he's posted a very nice 3.52 ERA in seven starts (down from his 4.80 number with Tampa) as Seattle is right in the thick of the Wild Card race. The Angels are a team that Ramirez is familiar with from his early days in Seattle, and probably a team he doesn't mind facing. In 11 career appearances (seven starts) vs. Los Angeles, Ramirez is 4-2 with a 2.19 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in just over 49 innings. Heading into Saturday, the M's are 7-0 in their last seven home games vs. teams with a losing road record. Take Seattle. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-10-17 | Colts v. Rams +3 | Top | 9-46 | Win | 100 | 157 h 19 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams minus the points over Indianapolis. It may seem strange that the Rams -- a team wich won just four games last season -- has been installed as a big favorite. But the Colts will be missing several key offensive players in this season opener. Chief among them, of course, is QB Andrew Luck. But Chester Rogers, Erik Swoope, Ryan Kelly and Ian Silberman are also injured. Frankly, I believe the Rams should be favored by even more points than they are. So, we'll lay the points with Los Angeles, as they also fall into my very best opening week angle, which is 34-12 ATS its last 46. Take the Rams. |
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09-10-17 | Astros -181 v. A's | Top | 2-10 | Loss | -181 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over Oakland. The A's have won the first three games of this series, but I love Houston to salvage a win in this final game. Houston will turn to its ace, Dallas Keuchel, who is 12-3 in his 19 starts, with a 2.88 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. His mound opponent will be righty Kendall Graveman. And Houston has feasted on righties this season, with a 68-35 record (compared to 18-21 vs. lefties).  Meanwhile, Oakland has struggled vs. southpaws (46-80, minus 34 games on the moneyline). Take Houston. |
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09-10-17 | Astros v. A's UNDER 9 | Top | 2-10 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the A's and Astros to go 'under' the total. Dallas Keuchel has had a lot of success vs. Oakland. The A's have won just five of the 15 games he's started against them, and seven of the last 10 have gone 'under' the total. Even better: this season, Keuchel's ERA in his daytime starts is 1.64. And 29 of his 47 career daytime starts have gone 'under' the total. Take the 'under.' |
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09-10-17 | Raiders v. Titans -1.5 | Top | 26-16 | Loss | -110 | 154 h 14 m | Show |
Our selection is on Tennessee. (Analysis to follow.) |
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09-10-17 | Ravens v. Bengals -2.5 | Top | 20-0 | Loss | -115 | 154 h 13 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals minus the points over Baltimore. The Bengals suffered through a miserable 6-9-1 season in 2016, after winning the AFC North division in 2015. But I love the Bengals to bounce back this season. And they should get the 2017 campaign off on the right foot, as they've won five straight home meetings vs. Baltimore, while the home team in this series is 17-6 SU and 14-8-1 ATS the last 23 meetings. Even better: the Bengals are 23-12-2 ATS as favorites of -3+ points in the regular season, and they also fall into an opening week angle of mine which is 40-22 ATS since 1980. Take Cincinnati. |
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09-09-17 | San Diego State v. Arizona State -3.5 | Top | 30-20 | Loss | -105 | 84 h 48 m | Show |
Our selection is on Arizona St. (Analysis to follow.) |
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09-09-17 | Rockies v. Dodgers -215 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -215 | 18 h 11 m | Show |
At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over Colorado. After not scoring 2+ runs in any of its previous four games, Los Angeles finally broke through with 4 runs last night. Unfortunately, they lost 5-4. But they finally did some good things at the plate, as they drew 6 walks, and had baserunners in every inning but the 9th). That should give them an added boost of confidence today, as they'll attempt to snap their losing streak. They'll have a decided advantage on the mound, as Colorado will hand the ball to Chad Bettis. Bettis has an unsightly 9.00 ERA in five road starts, and his career numbers vs. L.A. are pretty ugly, as well (6.49 ERA, 1.89 WHIP in five starts). Meanwhile, Alex Wood is 7-1 at home, with a 3.02 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. Take Los Angeles. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-09-17 | South Carolina v. Missouri -2.5 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -110 | 90 h 35 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Missouri Tigers minus the points over South Carolina. Last year, the Missouri Tigers suffered through a 4-8 season -- their first year under coach Barry Odom. But Mizzou got Odom's sophomore campaign off on the right foot, as it blew out Missouri State, 72-43, last week. In that game, Drew Lock compiled record numbers for a Missouri QB, as he threw for 521 yards and seven touchdowns, besting the previous marks of 480 yards and five TDs. Now, Missouri will welcome fellow SEC foe South Carolina to Columbia, and the Tigers have been installed as a small favorite. Like Missouri, the Gamecocks won their opener, in upset fashion over the NC State Wolfpack. Unfortunately for South Carolina, since 1980, single-digit road underdogs are an awful 23-39 ATS vs. conference foes that scored 60+ in their previous game, including 0-7 ATS if our road dog was off an upset win. That doesn't bode well for South Carolina this Saturday evening. And neither does the fact that South Carolina is an awful 4-9 ATS off an upset win, including 0-5 ATS vs. a foe off a SU win. Finally, SEC Conference teams are a poor 21.4% ATS since 1980 off an upset win over a non-conference foe, if they're matched up against a rival SEC Conference foe playing with revenge. With Missouri indeed playing with revenge from a 10-point loss to the Gamecocks last season, we'll lay the points with the Tigers. Take Missouri. NCAA Conference Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-09-17 | North Texas v. SMU -13 | Top | 32-54 | Win | 100 | 80 h 47 m | Show |
Our selection is on SMU. (Analysis to follow.) |
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09-09-17 | Marshall v. NC State -24 | Top | 20-37 | Loss | -101 | 88 h 51 m | Show |
At 6 pm, our selection is on the NC State Wolfpack minus the points over Marshall. NC State was stunned last week when it was upset, 35-28, as a 7.5-point favorite by South Carolina, while Marshall pulled an upset of its own against Miami-Ohio. The good news for NC State is that it generally rebounds at home off losses, as it's 48-34 ATS, including 18-6 ATS vs. foes off a SU/ATS win. More good news: since 1997, College Football teams off season-opening upset losses have cashed 83% vs. foes off season-opening upset wins! Last year, for example, Mississippi State rebounded off its Week 1 loss to South Alabama (as a 27.5-point favorite) to blow out South Carolina, which had upset Vanderbilt to open its season the week before. Finally, since 1996, Conference USA road underdogs off a SU/ATS win have cashed just 30.7% vs. non-conference foes. I look for the Wolfpack to bounce back BIG on this Saturday. Take North Carolina State. NCAA Football Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-09-17 | Tigers v. Blue Jays -155 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Detroit Tigers. If there's been a more injured pitcher over the last decade than Brett Anderson, we'd like somebody to point him out to us. Since he came into the league in 2009, the lefthander -- who is a pure starter and not a hybrid starter/reliever -- has had 30 starts only twice, in his rookie season and two seasons ago with the Dodgers. When he's healthy, Anderson can be devastatingly good, but he just can't stay healthy. Most of his early injuries centered around his elbow, but Anderson has also had major problems with his back (he had surgery on it), ankle, foot, and finger. The other thing Anderson has been known for -- not surprisingly given his injuries -- is moving around a lot. He's in his first stint with the Blue Jays who just signed him as a free agent a couple of weeks ago. He has two starts for Toronto, and so far...so good. Anderson is 0-1 with a 3.09 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in outings against two of the league's best offenses -- the O's and Red Sox. Tonight he'll face a Detroit lineup that's been decimated by deadline trades. Heading into Saturday, the Tigers are just 2-8 in the last 10 meetings in Toronto. Take the Jays. |
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09-09-17 | Buffalo v. Army -16.5 | Top | 17-21 | Loss | -108 | 74 h 49 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Army Black Knights minus the points over Buffalo. Last year, Army went into Buffalo, and was upset, 23-20, as a 13.5-point favorite. I look for the Black Knights to avenge that defeat, as they fall into 153-53 and 295-201 ATS systems of mine. Additionally, since 1980, .500 (or better) teams that lost the previous meeting on the road as a 10-point (or greater favorite), have cashed 80% vs. non-conference foes off a loss. Take Army. High Noon Hanging! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-09-17 | Northwestern v. Duke +3.5 | Top | 17-41 | Win | 100 | 73 h 48 m | Show |
Our selection is on Duke. (Analysis to follow.) |
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09-08-17 | Giants v. White Sox -111 | Top | 9-2 | Loss | -111 | 16 h 39 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the San Francisco Giants. Desperate for a leadoff hitter, the Nats took quite a gamble when they acquired Adam Eaton from the White Sox prior to this season. The gamble was packaging their #1 pitching prospect, Lucas Giolito in the deal that would send Eaton to DC. Now Eaton is on the shelf and the Nats appear to have a plethora of young OFs at their disposal. Meanwhile, Giolito -- who was the Nationals' first round draft pick in 2012 and considered their top prospect at the end of last season -- has started to shine for the Sox which may be difficult for the DC players and fans to stomach in the next few seasons. The big (6' 6") righthander is 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in three starts. Giolito's last start may have been his coming out party, as he was dominant in seven innings against the Rays, allowing one run on three hits with 10 strikeouts and one walk. He really seems to like his new home ballpark, and this will be his fourth straight start here. LHP Matt Moore gets the start for San Francisco. The Giants may have one of the worst winning percentages in the majors at .386 (54-86), but it's not nearly as bad as their number when Moore goes to the hill this season (8-19, .296). Take the White Sox. Interleague Game of the Week! As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-07-17 | Yankees v. Orioles -108 | Top | 9-1 | Loss | -108 | 4 h 34 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Orioles over the NY Yankees. This is a make-up game for the one rained-out last night. The Birds won in dramatic fashion Tuesday night, and have now moved to within one game of the 5th Playoff spot (currently held by the MInnesota Twins). Kevin Gausman will start for Baltimore, and we played on him in his last start -- a 1-0 win vs. Toronto. Gausman's thrown back to back scoreless games (6 innings last week; 7 2-3 innings two starts back), and also has a career 3.16 ERA vs. the Yankees. Sonny Gray, meanwhile, has struggled vs. Baltimore (1-3, 5.57 ERA), and also on the road (1-6 in nine starts). Finally, after facing southpaws in the first two games of this series, Baltimore will finally face a righty this afternoon. And the Orioles are 68-41 (+20 games on the moneyline) at home vs. righties. Take the Orioles. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-06-17 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -170 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -170 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Arizona Diamondbacks. The D-Backs continued to win yesterday -- even without All-Star Paul Goldschmidt in the line-up -- and stretched their win streak to 12 games. It was also Los Angeles' fifth straight loss, and 10th in its past 11 games. Notwithstanding those streaks, we're going to step in and take Los Angeles tonight. The Dodgers remain a great team. Indeed, they're 73-21 this season as a favorite priced at -150 or higher (+32 games on the moneyline). And Kenta Maeda, tonight's starter, is 8-1 in his 10 home starts this season, with a 3.12 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Meanwhile, Taijuan Walker has a 6.13 lifetime ERA vs. the Dodgers. And when he last met them, he gave up 4 earned runs in 5 2-3 innings. Take Los Angeles. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-06-17 | Royals v. Tigers UNDER 9.5 | Top | 13-2 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Royals and Detroit Tigers to go 'under' the total. Don't tell the Detroit Tigers team that showed up at Comerica Park last night that there is no longer any offense on the team. . The Tigers steamrolled the Royals -- who are playing for a Wild Card spot -- scoring 13 runs as Royals LHP Jason Vargas' struggles continued. There's no denying however that on paper, the Tigers are a mere shell of their former selves and it's highly unlikely you'll see this group put up a bakers dozen again anytime soon. Tonight, it will be veteran RH Jason Hammel for the visitors facing southpaw Matt Boyd of the Tigers. Hammel faced the Tigers twice last month and gave up just 4 earned runs in 12 innings. Likewise, in Boyd's July start for Detroit vs. KC, he also was fairly effective, as he gave up 3 runs over 6 innings. The Royals have gone 'under' in 12 of Hammel's 19 nighttime starts. Take the 'under.' |
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09-06-17 | Nationals -131 v. Marlins | Top | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Washington Nationals over the Miami Marlins. Last Thursday, Washington Nationals LHP Gio Gonzalez did something he hasn't done very often lately. He lost. Gonzalez faced the Brewers and red-hot RH Zach Davies in Milwaukee and he just didn't have his best stuff as he allowed five runs on eight hits in six innings and suffered his sixth loss of the season. It was the first time Gonzalez had lost a game in more than a month (July 19) and it broke string of five straight victories going back exactly one month. Gonzalez will look to start another streak tonight, and if he was going to hand-pick an opponent against which to get things going, it would probably be this one. Not only is the 31-year-old originally from the south Florida area, but he has dominated the Marlins this season. In four starts against the Fish, Gonzalez is 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 29 innings. In the three victories, the Nats have out-scored the Marlins by a total of 23-4, with two of those being right here at Marlins Park (including a 12-3 beat-down on June 20). With their win here last night, the Nats are now 7-0 in the last seven meetings. Take DC. |
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09-05-17 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -124 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -124 | 7 h 0 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over Arizona. We played on Zach Greinke last week, at home, vs. these Dodgers, and were rewarded with a blowout victory. Of course, Greinke's been the league's best starter at home for years now. But on the road, he's fairly mortal. This season is no different. Greinke's just 3-5 in 11 road starts, with a 4.28 ERA (compared to 13-1 at home in 16 home starts). Take Los Angeles. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-05-17 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox -181 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 1 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Toronto Blue Jays. After getting August off to a very hot start (13-2 in 15 games beginning on July 31), making it look like they might run away with the AL East, the Boston Red Sox have more recently been making things very interesting. They come into this important match-up tonight having lost eight of their last 12 games while their lead in the Division has dwindled to just 2 1/2 games over the Yankees. The Sox know that if the Yankees catch them, they will then be in a dogfight for the Wild Card with no less than seven other teams, so they would much prefer to be not let it get to that. Tonight, they'll have another game against the pesky Blue Jays. Veteran RH Marco Estrada goes to the hill for Toronto and Estrada has really struggled on the road in 2017, going 3-5 with a 5.58 ERA in 16 starts away from Toronto (vs. 4-3 and 4.73 in 12 home starts). The Sox will look to recover from a 10-4 beat-down yesterday, on Labor Day. And they'll turn to LHP Eduardo Rodriguez tonight. That bodes well for the home team, as the Blue Jays are hitting just .239 vs. southpaws this season. Take Boston. |
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09-05-17 | Brewers -134 v. Reds | Top | 3-9 | Loss | -134 | 4 h 1 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Cincinnati Reds. Zach Davies' surprising season continued last Thursday when he beat the Washington Nationals in Miller Park for his League-leading (tied) 16th victory. Davies threw seven strong innings, allowing two runs on six hits in the important 6-3 win which keeps the Crew within striking distance of the Cubs (not to mention very close in the Wild Card race as well). Davies will go for win #17 tonight in Cincinnati, a place where he's yet to win in two previous starts, despite pitching very well. In those starts, Davies allowed a combined three runs on eight hits in 12 innings. With his latest performance against the Nats, Davies has now allowed three runs in his last four starts covering 26 2/3 innings with 18 strikeouts and six walks. Davies last faced the Reds back on April 25 when he threw five scoreless innings, allowing six hits with six K's and one walk in a 9-1 rout. The real bad news for the home team tonight is that Davies has been much better on the road this season, going 8-1 with a sparkling 2.13 ERA in 14 starts away from Miller Park. The Brewers are 7-4 in the last 11 meetings. Take Milwaukee. |
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09-04-17 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -145 | Top | 13-0 | Loss | -145 | 24 h 19 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Arizona Diamondbacks. The D-Backs have now made it 10 wins in a row as they continue with one of the hottest streaks of the season for any team. Of course, the Dodgers know a little bit about hot streaks as the NL West Leaders won 11 straight of their own in July and went 32-5 between July 4 and August 18. Their current streak is one that the Dodgers would like to escape from however as they have gone 1-8 in their last nine overall coming into this crucial series against the second-place D-Backs. Rich Hill followed up his bizarre nine-inning, one-hit loss against the Pirates with a clunker against this Arizona club last Tuesday. That one was on the road (as was the Pittsburgh gem) but this one is at Dodger Stadium where the veteran LHP has an ERA that is more than a run lower than it is on the road (3.17 vs. 4.27). Although these games may be meaningless to the Dodgers in terms of their effect on their post-season seeding, L.A. would no doubt love to send a message to the D-Backs that they are still the team to beat in the NL. LH Robbie Ray will get the start for Arizona and the Dodgers are 26-6 in their last 32 games vs. teams with a southpaw starter, and 52-15 as a home favorite. Take L.A. MLB Game of the Month. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-03-17 | Texas A&M v. UCLA -3 | Top | 44-45 | Loss | -128 | 183 h 56 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins minus the points over Texas A&M. The Aggies have long been a much better pointspread team at home than away from College Station. And, perhaps, their worst pointspread role is as an underdog away from home when they're not off back to back losses. Since November 1999, they're a horrid 8-37 ATS, including 0-17 ATS when priced from +2.5 to +8 points. Yikes! That doesn't bode well for A&M on Sunday. And neither does the fact that they defeated the Bruins in College Station last season, 31-24. The Bruins are a solid 57% ATS when playing with revenge and favored by 4+ points. And they're an awesome 30-10 ATS at home vs. non-conference foes over the past 37 seasons when not laying 14+ points (and 9-1 ATS their last 10). Take UCLA. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-03-17 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies -118 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -118 | 3 h 39 m | Show |
At 3:10 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Rockies over the Arizona Diamondbacks. The D-Backs appear to be for real. They probably won't catch the Dodgers, but they're the hottest team in the Majors right now and poised to locked down the top Wild Card spot in the NL. With their 6-2 win here last night, the D-Backs have now won nine straight games and if the Rockies don't make the post-season, they might just want to blame Arizona, who has won five of the last six meetings. But this afternoon, the Rox might have their best chance to change their fortunes. That's because second-year RH German Marquez goes to the mound and Colorado is 9-0 in his last nine home starts. Marquez has come out of nowhere to put up double-digit wins and a solid 4.18 ERA for the Rox this season. He last faced the Diamondbacks here on June 20 and threw six strong innings, allowing one run on four hits in a 4-3 victory (although Marquez took a no-decision in that one).  RHP Zack Godley will go for the Diamondbacks and they are 1-5 in his last six starts during game three of a series. Even worse for Godley: he'll have to battle without Paul Goldschmidt in the starting lineup this afternoon. Take Colorado. MLB Game of the Week! As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-03-17 | Rays -161 v. White Sox | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -161 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Chicago White Sox. Matt Andriese was on his way to a possible breakout campaign in his third MLB Season when his 2017 was derailed by a bit of a strange injury at the beginning of June. The Tampa RH was diagnosed with something called a "stress reaction" in his right hip and was placed on the 60 day DL. He had gone 5-1 with a very strong 3.38 ERA in 13 appearances (12 starts) and had even notched a save in his only relief appearance when his season came to a halt. He's back this afternoon after a successful rehab assignment and after the trades they made, the White Sox are looking a lot like a minor league team right about now, so Andriese may feel like he's on that assignment when he steps to the mound today. There's no way to sugar-coat it, the Sox are a very bad team right now, even if their future might be bright in a few years. One of the players they are hoping will be a major piece for them down the road is Lucas Giolito. The big RH came to Chicago in the trade that sent Adam Eaton to the Nats and this will be his third start since getting recalled on August 22, and just his seventh start in his career. Unfortunately, he's had a quality start in just one of his first six starts. Take Tampa Bay. MLB Elite Info Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-02-17 | Vanderbilt v. Middle Tennessee State +5 | Top | 28-6 | Loss | -117 | 159 h 16 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders + the points over Vanderbilt. It's hard to have confidence in a Vandy squad installed as a road favorite in its season opener, given that the Commies have lost five straight season openers (by an average of 8.6 ppg) -- and they were favored in two of those five games. Meanwhile, Middle Tennessee has won its last four openers, by an average of 46.5 ppg. The Blue Raiders certainly hope that the "3rd time will be the charm" on Saturday. And that's because they've lost the past two seasons to the Commodores. Last year, the game was played in Nashville, and Vandy won 47-24, as a 3-point favorite. But that score was somewhat misleading, as the Blue Raiders, behind the arm of Brent Stockstill (the coach's son), actually out-yarded Vanderbilt, 495 to 344. But they lost the turnover battle, and also killed themselves with penalties. I love Middle Tennessee to avenge that loss and upset the Commodores on Saturday, as they fall into 38-18 and 80-43 ATS systems of mine. Take Middle Tennessee St. NCAA Roadkill Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-02-17 | Nationals -180 v. Brewers | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 16 h 9 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Washington Nationals over the Milwaukee Brewers. If the Nationals thought they were going to waltz into Miller Park and flex their muscles against what would seem to be an over-matched Brewers club, well they better think again. The Brewers took the first two games of this series behind the very strong starting pitching of Zach Davies and Jimmy Nelson. Tonight, however, things could get a lot harder for the Brewers' hitters as RHP Max Scherzer goes to the hill for the 26th time this season -- and second since returning from a minor neck injury. Scherzer leads all starters in the league in strikeouts with 230, K's per nine IP (12.4), WHIP (0.85), and is tied for the lead with two complete games. This will be Scherzer's first start at Miller Park of 2017, but he has pitched well here in the past, with a 3.27 ERA and 0.86 WHIP including 34 K's in 22 innings through four appearances (three starts) here. Most importantly, however, is the fact that Scherzer has pitched much better on the road this season. In 12 starts at Nationals Park, he is 5-3 with a 2.64 ERA, however in 13 starts elsewhere, Scherzer is 8-2 and 1.79. Take the Nats. MLB ROAD WARRIOR WINNER. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-02-17 | Kentucky -10 v. Southern Miss | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -115 | 155 h 25 m | Show |
At 4 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats minus the points over Southern Mississippi. Both of these teams went 7-6 last season. But the Wildcats will be the much better team this season, as they're returning 17 starters, while Southern Miss only returns 12. Kentucky has been installed as a double-digit road favorite in this season opener for both teams. And that doesn't bode well for the Golden Eagles, as double-digit home dogs are an awful 61-84, 42% ATS, in season openers, including 36% ATS if they had a winning record the previous season. These two teams also met in the season opener last year. That game was played at Kentucky, but Southern Miss upset the Wildcats, 44-35, as a 3.5-point underdog. I look for Kentucky to avenge that upset loss, as they fall into 55-14 and 59-30 ATS revenge systems of mine. Additionally, the Golden Eagles are an awful 3-10 ATS as home underdogs, priced from +7 to +20, while Kentucky is 30-2 straight-up, and 20-12 ATS when favored by 8+ points. Finally, since 1990, teams from major conferences (like the SEC) have cashed 58% when playing with revenge vs. foes from minor conferences (like Conference USA), provided our revenger isn't getting 14+ points. Lay the points with Kentucky. NCAA Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-01-17 | Colorado State +6.5 v. Colorado | Top | 3-17 | Loss | -110 | 136 h 32 m | Show |
At 8 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Colorado State Rams + the points over the Colorado Buffaloes. We cashed our NCAA Game of the Week on Colorado State -3.5 over Oregon State last Saturday, as CSU blew out the Beavers, 58-27. They'll have a big advantage vs. their cross-state rival, Colorado, as the Buffaloes won't have had any games yet this season to work out any kinks. Indeed, over the past 35 years, teams playing their first game have covered just 41% vs. foes that covered the point spread by 7+ points in their season opener the previous week. Even better: if our team playing its season opener is priced from -3 to -14.5 points, then our angle zooms from 59% to 83% (and 89% if our 'play-on' team (here, Colorado State), is playing with revenge). Speaking of revenge, it's not surprising that this "Centennial State" rivalry has seen the revenge-minded team generally get the cash. These teams have met every season for the past 22 years, and the team that lost the previous year has gone 15-5-1 ATS, including 8-0-1 ATS when priced from -3 to +6.5 points! With the Rams playing with revenge from a 44-7 loss last season, we'll pull the trigger on the underdog, and grab the points with Colorado State. NCAA Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-01-17 | Blue Jays v. Orioles -161 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 16 h 14 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Orioles over the Toronto Blue Jays. The O's had their seven game winning streak stopped on Thursday in the first game of this four-game set with the Blue Jays. Of course, if Kendrys Morales had sat out the game, then the O's streak would still be intact as the veteran DH was a one-man wrecking crew in Baltimore last night (3 HR, 7 RBI). If the O's are not only going to make it to the post-season, but get past the Wild Card round, they're going to have to get some stingy performances from their most talented starters -- namely Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman. Bundy did his part on Tuesday, throwing not only his best start of his career, but one of the best starts in the entire Majors in 2017. Now it's Gausman's turn. We've seen flashes of his immense talent in the past, now he just needs to find consistency. The good news is that Gausman and the O's -- together -- have had a lot of success against Toronto this season. Incredibly, this will be Gausman's fifth start of the season against the Jays, and he is 1-0 with a sparkling 1.99 ERA in those previous four starts coming into tonight. The most important stat however is that the Orioles are 4-0 in Gausman's 2017 outings vs. Toronto. Take Baltimore. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-31-17 | Titans v. Chiefs OVER 38 | Top | 6-30 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the KC Chiefs and Tennessee Titans to go 'over' the total. Last week, both of these teams' offenses went on holiday, as Kansas City mustered just 13 points, while Tennessee was even less effective, as it scored just seven in a 12-point loss to the Chicago Bears. Interestingly, both of these teams reached the 30-point mark in their previous game. I expect both offenses to bounce back and do much better tonight. And, for technical support, consider that Preseason games have gone 'over' the total 75% over the past 22 seasons if they involve two teams that scored at least 16 less points in their last game than they scored two games back. Take the 'over.' NFL Preseason Total of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-31-17 | Nationals v. Brewers -109 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 15 h 23 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Washington Nationals. Two of the hottest starters of the second half of the season will go to the mound in game one of this series tonight in Milwaukee. The Nationals come off of a lopsided, three-game sweep of the over-matched Marlins, but will face a decidedly better Brewers club after traveling to Milwaukee. The Nats will turn to their LH ace, Gio Gonzalez, who will go to the mound for his 27th start of the season. Gonzalez has been very good all season, but he's been especially brilliant since the All Star break, going 6-1 with a 1.46 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in eight starts since the mid-summer Classic. But not to be outdone, the Brewers have their own ace lately -- a right hander -- as 24 year old Zach Davies has been on fire, arguably just as much as Gonzalez has. Since the break, Davies is 5-3 with a 2.28 ERA in nine starts. Davies also has more wins than Gonzalez, logging a league leading 15 W's vs. Gio's 13. But if Gonzalez has some reason for concern tonight, it's mainly due to his poor efforts here in Milwaukee. In three career starts at Miller Park, the southpaw is 1-1 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in 15 innings. The Brewers are also 17-7 in Davies last 24 starts. |
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08-31-17 | Red Sox v. Yankees -132 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Boston Red Sox. The Yankees have dropped their last three games, but I love them to snap their slide tonight. CC Sabathia will get the start, and he's led the Yankees to wins in 8 of 9 starts this season following a loss. Even better: he's been on the mound in 12 division games this season, and the Yanks have won 10 of those games. Likewise, New York's 41-22 at home vs. division rivals the past two seasons. Boston, meanwhile, has underperformed this season vs. southpaws, as it's just 16-15 (minus 4.2 games on the moneyline), while scoring just 4.5 runs per game in those contests (the Yanks average 5.4 runs at home this year). Eduardo Rodriguez has an ugly 6.11 ERA over his last three outings, including a 7-0 pasting by the Orioles last Saturday. Take New York. |
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08-31-17 | Florida International +17 v. Central Florida | Top | 17-61 | Loss | -115 | 41 h 44 m | Show |
At 6 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Florida International Panthers + the points over Central Florida. Last year, these two teams met in Miami, and UCF blew out the Panthers, 53-14. And that continued the trend in this Sunshine State rivalry where the road team has not covered in of the last four seasons. This game will be played in Orlando, and I look for Florida International to avenge that loss here, as road teams playing with revenge from a game in which they gave up 50+ points have cashed 67% over the past 23 seasons in their season opener. Even worse: Central Florida is a wallet-busting 27% ATS since 1999 when priced between -7.5 and -23 points vs. a foe playing with revenge. Finally, over the past nine years, road dogs have cashed a staggering 72.2% of the time vs. non-conference foes when playing with revenge from a loss by more than 30 points (including 80% ATS if their opponent scored 50+ points in the previous year's meeting)!  Take Florida International + the points. NCAA Football Game of the Month for August. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-31-17 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks -105 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over the Los Angeles Dodgers. Zach Greinke has long been the best pitcher in baseball when playing in front of his home fans.  This year, Arizona is 13-2 behind Greinke, and his teams are also 108-38 (+51 games on the moneyline) his last 146 as a home favorite. It's not often one can get Greinke at home laying a short price. With Arizona on a 6-game win streak, and the Dodgers mired in a 4-game slide, we'll take Arizona this afternoon. |
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08-31-17 | Rangers v. Astros -175 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 3 h 49 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Texas Rangers. Texas has taken the first two games of this series. But Houston has a huge advantage on the mound this afternoon. The Astros will hand the ball to Collin McHugh, who has a 1.53 ERA over his last three sstarts. Houston is also 15-2 behind McHugh in division games, while Texas has lost Nick Martinez' last three starts. Take Houston. |
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08-30-17 | Mets v. Reds -130 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -130 | 17 h 49 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Reds over the New York Mets. The Reds broke a 14-game losing streak to the Mets in a big way last night at home, plating 14 runs on 15 hits in a 14-4 blow-out. They'll look to run their streak to two-in-a-row tonight as veteran RH Homer Bailey takes the mound against the Mets and RHP Rafael Montero. It remains to be seen which version of Bailey shows up on the mound tonight. However, after two straight starts against the Cubs (preceded by games vs. Milwaukee and St. Louis), one thing seems certain and that is that Bailey will get some major class relief tonight. The Mets are just a really bad team right now. And they just lost their second star-quality outfielder for the season when it was announced that Yoenis Cespedes and his injured hamstring will be shut down for the rest of 2017. It's hard to imagine Bailey being very concerned on the mound tonight facing the few healthy hitters that the Mets have left. Montero will look to turn around his recent dry spell (1-5 with a 5.33 ERA since July 2), but to do so he'll have to solve his home run problem and there is no shortage of long-ball threats in the Reds lineup these days. Bailey would like nothing more than to get at least one victory in front of his home fans this season (he's 0-4 here) and he may have no better chance to do so than tonight. Take Cincy. 10* play. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-29-17 | Tigers v. Rockies -141 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 18 h 1 m | Show |
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Rockies over the Detroit Tigers. When it comes to the 2017 Colorado Rockies, we're seeing some things that we're not used to from this team. Primarily, what were seeing is multiple rookie starting pitchers who have solid records and ERAs that -- while not being confused with Clayton Kershaw -- do not qualify them for the bottom of the league. There's Kyle Freeland, with his 11-8 record and team-leading 3.81 ERA; and Antonio Senzatela with his 10-4 record, despite the fact that he was relegated to the bullpen on more than occasion. Then there's tonight's starter, RH German Marquez. Marquez just might be the quietest starter in the NL who has amassed double digit wins. He's 10-5 with a solid (for Colorado) 4.18 ERA in 22 starts. None of these three rookies are over 24 years old, either. Tonight, Marquez will face the Tigers and, although he has a higher ERA here in Denver, he is 6-2 in 10 starts at Coors vs. just 4-3 in 12 starts elsewhere. Michael Fulmer is not following up his Rookie of the Year season of 2016 quite the way he had hoped as he is 10-11 with a 3.69 ERA in 24 starts. And now he has to find out what it's like to pitch in the thin air of Coors for the first time. Take the Rockies. MLB Roadkill Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-28-17 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays -114 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -114 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Boston Red Sox. Yesterday, Boston lost to Baltimore, and thus was swept at home in the weekend series, 3 games to none. The primary culprit in the loss was Boston's performance with runners in scoring position. The Red Sox were an ugly 1-for-13 in that situation, and stranded 13 baserunners in the game. Overall, Boston's dropped four in a row, and it won't get any easier tonight in Toronto. The Blue Jays will hand the ball to RHP Marcus Stroman, who we've backed a lot this season. Stroman's been especially strong at home, where his ERA this season is 2.63. Indeed, in his last 11 home starts, he hasn't given up more than three earned runs in any of those 11 games. The Red Sox are a poor 15-24 (minus 11 games on the moneyline) this season when priced +125 to -125 on the road (and 59-79 (minus 24 net games) the last three seasons). Take Toronto. MLB High Roller Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-27-17 | Bengals v. Redskins -3 | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 3 h 37 m | Show |
At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Washington Redskins minus the points over Cincinnati. We played against the Bengals last week, and took KC as our #1 Play of the Preseason, and got the cash when the Chiefs ripped the Bengals, 30-12, at Cincy. That dropped the Bengals to 1-1 in the Preseason. Things won't get easier this afternoon, as Washington checks in off back to back upset losses (vs. Green Bay and Baltimore). We'll fade Cincy today, as teams playing away from home, with a W/L percentage less than .750, are a miserable 26% ATS vs. foes off back to back upset losses, including 16% ATS when not getting 4+ points. Even worse: the Bengals are 2-14 ATS in the Preseason vs. foes off back to back losses, including 0-8 ATS when not laying more than 2 points. Take Washington. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-27-17 | Orioles v. Red Sox -134 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -134 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
At 1:35 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Baltimore Orioles. From the results of the first two games of this weekend series, you'd be hard pressed to tell which of these teams has a nice 3 1/2 game lead in the division and which one is fighting for the second Wild Card spot. The Orioles have come into Fenway and put an ole fashioned butt-whoopin' on the Red Sox through the first two, out-scoring them by 23-3 and out-hitting them by a staggering 30-10. The fun for the O's is likely about to stop however as LHP Wade Miley takes the mound for them in the series finale this afternoon. Miley actually pitched for Sox for the entire 2015 season so he is familiar with this ballpark, but the numbers for the most part are not pretty. The veteran southpaw has made 15 starts here and he has an ugly 4.82 ERA to show for them. Of course, he didn't have to face the Boston offense when he pitched here two seasons ago, but he has to face it today after two blowout losses. Boston RHP Doug Fister will try to keep the momentum going after the best start of his career, a complete-game, one-hit gem against the Indians last Tuesday which the Sox won, 9-1. The Orioles are 1-4 in Miley's last five road starts vs. teams with a winning record. Take Boston. Elite Info Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-26-17 | Raiders +3 v. Cowboys | Top | 20-24 | Loss | -110 | 111 h 44 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Raiders over Dallas. The Raiders were upset, 24-21, at home by the Los Angeles Rams last weekend. But I look for the Raiders to bounce back on Saturday, as underdogs off upset home losses have covered 59% in the preseason vs. foes off a SU win. Moreover, Oakland is 8-3 ATS on the road vs. the Cowboys in the Preseason. Take Oakland. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-26-17 | Chargers +2.5 v. Rams | Top | 21-19 | Win | 100 | 111 h 43 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers over the Los Angeles Rams. The Chargers' defense has given up 30.5 ppg so far, while their offense has mustered just 12 ppg. But I look for the Chargers to cover on Saturday, as teams that have been outscored by 6+ ppg, and have given up 30 ppg, have covered the pointspread 78% in the Preseason, in Game #3. Even better: the Chargers are 11-0-1 ATS vs. the Rams in the Preseason since 1992. Take the Chargers. |
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