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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-25-21 | Predators v. Hurricanes -186 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Hurricanes over the Nashville Predators. This series seemed as though it might be a runaway when the first-place Hurricanes easily won the first two games at home and the Predators looked over-matched. But Nashville put it together in Games three and four and now the series is tied heading back to Raleigh tonight. And while this is starting to have the makings of a seven game series, the fact that Nashville will have to win at least one road game is not a good thing for the Preds, as the home team has won 10 straight in this series. And Nashville is also just 2-12 in the last 14 meetings here in North Carolina. Moreover, the Hurricanes are 10-5 (+3 games on the moneyline) in their last 15 coming off two or more consecutive road losses, while the Predators are 2-12 (-14 games on the moneyline) in their last 14 immediately after two straight wins by a single goal. Take Carolina. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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05-25-21 | Blue Jays +157 v. Yankees | Top | 6-2 | Win | 157 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the New York Yankees. The Jays were swept in four games by the Rays, who have now won 11 in a row. Now, the Blue Jays go to the Bronx for three straight to play a surging Yankees team on their home turf. It's true that Toronto's hitters will be facing a hot pitcher tonight, who is coming off of a no-hitter in his last start. But there is reason to believe that Yankees veteran RH Corey Kluber will regress this evening after his May 19 no-no. First, that achievement was at the Rangers' new Globe Life park, and it was the second no-hitter that's already been thrown at that apparent pitchers' paradise in Arlington, TX. Second, in eight career starts vs. the Jays, Kluber is 2-3 with a 4.47 ERA in just over 44 innings. Third, the Yankees hitters will have to face LH Steven Matz, who has a 5-2 record on the season (including 4-1 in his five road starts). We'll take the underdog Blue Jays tonight, as they are 6-2 in the last eight meetings of these two teams. Take Toronto. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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05-24-21 | Blazers v. Nuggets -1 | Top | 109-128 | Win | 100 | 41 h 1 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets over the Portland Trail Blazers. The Trail Blazers have not had much playoff success over the years, as they're 68-103 ATS their last 171 including 32-53 ATS on the road. But Portland went into Denver in Game 1 of this series, and pulled the upset, 123-109, as a 1-point dog. We'll fade the Blazers in Game 2, as .700 (or worse) road teams up 1-0 in a playoff series are 0-9-2 ATS if matched up against a division rival, and not getting 7+ points. Additionally, the Nuggets are 5-0-1 ATS their last six, and 36-11-1 ATS their last 48 at home, off a home loss by more than 10 points, provided the Nuggets weren't getting more than 2 points in their current game. Take the Nuggets to level this series at 1-game apiece. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-24-21 | Mariners v. A's -159 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -159 | 15 h 26 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Seattle Mariners. The A's Frankie Montas became a full-time starter in 2018 and after a successful campaign that season and the year after, it seemed as though the sky would be the limit for the then-26-year-old. But the shortened 2020 season was pretty much a disaster for Montas. In 11 starts covering 53 innings, the RHP went 3-5 with a 5.60 ERA and that's certainly not the results the A's wanted coming off of that productive 2019 season. The good news now is that all of Montas' numbers this season are improved from last. In nine starts covering 47 innings, Montas is 5-3 and he has a 3.46 K:BB ratio (45 strikeouts and 13 walks). The 4.79 ERA that he's posted is far from ideal, but after a rough April (2-2 with a 6.20 ERA in five starts), Montas has really made it count this month, going 3-1 with a sparkling 3.22 ERA in four starts covering just over 22 innings. The A's are 13-2 (+10 games on the moneyline) in Montas' last 15 starts as a home favorite. Take Oakland. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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05-24-21 | Lightning v. Panthers +100 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Florida Panthers over the Tampa Bay Lightning. Florida's first-round of the 2021 NHL playoffs is a case of good news/bad news. The bad news is somewhat obvious. The Panthers are down in this series by 3-1 and need a win to stay alive. The good news is that despite the fact that they lost both previous games here at home, the Panthers took Game 3 in Tampa, and are 20-10 here at home this season. It's perhaps easy to forget that the Panthers finished ahead of the Lightning in the Central Division by four points and also that they took the regular season series, five games to three. Florida has a way of bouncing back strong after having defensive lapses. The Panthers are 15-5 (+10 games on the moneyline) in their last 20 after allowing three or more goals in two straight and 14-5 (+9 games on the moneyline) in their last 19 after allowing four goals or more in their previous contest. Take Florida. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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05-24-21 | Rockies v. Mets -130 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -130 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Colorado Rockies. The Rockies are averaging 2.8 runs per game, and hitting .209 on the road. So, perhaps it's no surprise they've won just two of their 19 games away from Colorado (including 0-7 when priced as an underdog of +150 or less, and 0-10 when the O/U line was less than 8 runs). We'll play against the Rockies in the Big Apple tonight, as the pitching match-up will feature two southpaws: Austin Gomber vs. David Peterson. Gomber's road ERA also leaves a lot to be desired, as he's given up 24 runs (22 earned) in 31 innings (6.35 ERA). The Rockies are 1-5 in his six road starts. Peterson's been effective at home this season, as his ERA is 3.95, with a 1.02 WHIP. And the Mets have won 6 of his 8 home starts, dating back to last season. Take New York. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-23-21 | Oilers -125 v. Jets | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -125 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Edmonton Oilers over the Winnipeg Jets. In what is probably the biggest surprise of the NHL post-season so far, the Winnipeg Jets have take a 2-0 lead on the road against a heavily-favored Oilers team. Never mind that Edmonton has the consensus #1 player in the world in F Connor McDavid, but they also featured the most productive defenseman this season in 29-year-old Tyson Barrie (48 points in 56 games). Now the Oilers have to win two on the road just to even the series and it starts tonight at the Bell MTS Place, a venue that's been pretty good to them this season. In the last five meetings here, the Oilers are 4-1, including taking the last three by a combined score of 12-2. And the Oilers are also 8-1 on the road off a loss, while the road team is now 5-0 in the last five meetings between these rivals. The Jets have now won four in a row but that may not bode well for tonight as they are 1-6 (-7 games on the moneyline) in their last seven immediately following a four-game unbeaten streak. Take the Oilers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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05-23-21 | Astros -168 v. Rangers | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -168 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
At 2:35 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Texas Rangers. After the Rangers' bats went dormant for a couple of games last week, they decided to wake up big time in this weekend series with their division rivals. Texas plated seven on Friday in a 7-5 extra innings win and then did one better on Saturday, putting an 8-4 hurting on the 'Stros behind two home runs by Rookie-of-the-Year favorite Adolis Garcia. The Cuban slugger has come out of nowhere to put up monster numbers in the first couple of months. If Houston is to turn things around this afternoon, they will need RHP Cristian Javier to quiet the Texas hitters. Javier is following up his excellent rookie season with an even better campaign so far in 2021. Through his first eight starts covering 44 innings, Javier is 3-1 with a 3.27 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 53 strikeouts vs. 15 walks for a 3.53 K:BB ratio. He threw seven quality innings against Texas two starts ago at home in a 4-3 Houston victory. The 'Stros are also a perfect 6-0 in Javier's six career starts as a favorite of at least -150. Take Houston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie
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05-22-21 | Canadiens v. Maple Leafs -165 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 2 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Maple Leafs over the Montreal Canadiens. The Canadiens surprised the favored home team in Game 1, beating the Maple Leafs in a very close 2-1 contest. Despite the disappointing loss, Toronto comes into Game 2 knowing that they out-played the Habs for most of the 60 minutes and they came out ahead in the shots department, 36-30. Montreal's win was its first in the last six games going back to May 5 and that included two straight losses to this Toronto club on May 6 and 8. But the Habs have a way of letting down after a big defensive effort, as they are 1-6 in their last seven after allowing two goals or less in their previous game. For the Leafs, Jack Campbell was very good in his NHL Playoff debut in goal, which wasn't a surprise given his strong season. The Maple Leafs are 10-1 (+9 games on the moneyline) in their last 11 revenging a home loss, and 23-11 (+17.2 games on the moneyline) when trailing in a playoff series, while Montreal is a poor 8-16 off a win, and 13-20 (minus 8.9 games on the moneyline) when leading in a playoff series. Take Toronto. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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05-22-21 | Twins v. Indians -168 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Minnesota Twins. Shane Bieber will start for the Indians this afternoon, and he brings a super 2.70 ERA in his home starts into this contest. Even better: Bieber will make this start with an extra day of rest, and his teams are 19-8 (+9 games on the moneyline) in his career when he's had an extra day or two of rest. Meanwhile, Twins' righty, Kenta Maeda, has a horrid 6.75 road ERA, with a 1.58 WHIP. And his ERA balloons to 6.23 in his daytime starts. Dating back to last season, the Twins have lost seven of his last nine starts, including a 7-4 loss at Cleveland less than four weeks ago. Take the Indians. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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05-22-21 | Astros -185 v. Rangers | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -185 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Texas Rangers. In a three game series against the visiting Yankees, the Rangers were swept and out-scored 11-4 and they didn't plate a run in the final two games. And on Wednesday, they were no-hit by former teammate Corey Kluber. So last night the Rangers took out their frustrations on the Astros in the first of this three-game series. Last season, Houston RHP Lance McCullers Jr. did something he hadn't been able to do in his first four seasons in the league. The 27-year-old made 11 starts which -- in the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign -- amounted to a full season of work. None-the-less, the veteran wants to prove he can do it under normal conditions, which means 30 starts, and he is on track to do just that. So far, in eight starts covering 46 2/3 innings, McCullers is 3-1 with a very nice 2.70 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, and he has allowed just 28 hits with 52 strikeouts. The Astros are also 7-2 (+6 games on the moneyline) in McCullers last nine day starts. Take Houston. |
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05-22-21 | White Sox +175 v. Yankees | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the New York Yankees. This is a great match-up today -- at least on paper -- between the two of the top teams in the American League. The White Sox will hand the ball to Dylan Cease, who has a 2.41 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over eight starts. And his ERA in his three daytime starts is 1.80. Cease's mound opponent this afternoon will be Gerrit Cole, who has a 2.03 ERA on the season, with a superb 0.78 WHIP. But Cole also had his worst outing of the season earlier this week at Texas, as he gave up five runs in five innings, in a 5-2 loss. The only good news for Cole was that he got into the record books with his 61st straight strikeout without issuing a walk. This afternoon, Cole will attempt to bounce back against Chicago. But his career ERA vs. the Pale Hose is 6.00. And Cole's teams are also 2-5 his last seven (minus 6.8 games on the moneyline) as a home favorite priced from -150 to -200. Take the White Sox as a big underdog on Saturday. |
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05-21-21 | Jets v. Oilers -162 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -162 | 17 h 12 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Edmonton Oilers over the Winnipeg Jets. The Jets surprised the Oilers in Game 1 here in Edmonton, taking what seemed a somewhat lopsided 4-1 victory. And if you think most of the blame on Edmonton's side must lie with goalie Mike Smith, you may be mistaken. Despite only facing 20 shots, Smith actually stopped all but two of them with the game knotted at 1-1 through most of the 60 minutes of play. Yes, Smith was out-played by the brilliant Connor Hellebuyck, but there were two empty net goals at the end of the game that made the score look more one-sided than it really was. So while the result was obviously disappointing for the Oilers and their fans, they go into Game 2 knowing that they out-shot their opponents by 33-20 and that it was just the first time they lost back-to-back games in a couple of months (March 13 & 15). Despite their win on Wednesday night, the Jets are still just 2-6 in the last eight meetings with Edmonton, and an awful 2-10 off 3+ wins in a row. Meanwhile, Edmonton is 15-4 off back to back defeats, and 22-13 (+14.4 games on the moneyline) when playing with revenge from a home loss by 2+ goals. Take the Oilers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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05-21-21 | Mets +101 v. Marlins | Top | 6-5 | Win | 101 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Miami Marlins. The Marlins return home after shutting out Philadelphia, 6-0, yesterday behind Sandy Alcantara, while New York had Thursday off following its road trip to Atlanta, where it won two of the three games. The pitching matchup tonight will feature veteran Marcus Stroman for New York, while rookie RHP Jordan Holloway will toe the rubber for the Marlins. And although Holloway has been effective out of the pen (10 1-3 innings of scoreless ball), he's NOT been effective as a starter (0-2, 6.75 ERA, 6 2-3 innings). That doesn't bode well for Miami tonight. Nor does the fact that New York's won five of the last six meetings here in Miami, and has outscored Miami by an average of 2.83 rpg in those six road games. The Marlins are 53-75 (minus 11 games on the moneyline) at home, and 51-80 inside the division. Even worse, they're 89-120 (minus 21 games on the moneyline) off a blowout win by more than three runs, and 29-44 after allowing less than three runs. Take New York. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-21-21 | Red Sox v. Phillies -146 | Top | 11-3 | Loss | -146 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Boston Red Sox. Aaron Nola is having another outstanding season for the Phillies, even if it doesn't always show in the won-lost column. The 27-year-old RHP has a 3.64 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and career-best 6.78 K:BB ratio (61 strikeouts and nine walks) in his eight starts covering 54 1/3 innings. Tonight will be a challenge for sure against a very good Boston lineup, but it seems as though Nola often rises to the level of his competition. And in fact, he has a pretty good history against this Red Sox club. In three career starts against Boston covering 22 innings, Nola is 1-0 with a sparkling 1.64 ERA and 0.77 WHIP with just 12 hits allowed. The fact that he gets this start at home doesn't hurt his chances either as Nola has a career 35-17 record with 2.90 ERA in 77 starts here at Citizens Bank Park (vs. 26-26 and 4.13 in 73 starts on the road). The Phillies are 12-4 (+6 games on the moneyline) in Nola's last 16 starts as a favorite of -125 to -175. Take the Phillies. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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05-20-21 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays -129 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -129 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Boston Red Sox. If you were to guess which starting pitchers were tied for the lead in the American League with five victories, Toronto LH Steven Matz and his 4.29 ERA in eight starts would probably not be on your list. But despite that somewhat inflated number, Matz has been very effective this season for his team. And it certainly doesn't hurt that the Jays have one of the best offenses in the game right now. And given that last season was one to forget for the 29-year-old southpaw (0-5 with a 9.68 ERA in nine games -- six starts), the 4.29 number represents a huge turnaround. The Mets traded Matz to the Jays after the 2020 season and Matz certainly has not looked back. Start number nine will his second career outing against the Red Sox. One of the other AL pitchers with five wins is Matz's mound opponent tonight, Boston's Nick Pivetta. Pivetta also came over to the AL East from the NL East (Phillies), and has made two career starts vs. the Jays. Unfortunately, his team lost both of those starts, and his career ERA is 5.40, covering 11 2/3 innings against Toronto. Take the Blue Jays. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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05-20-21 | Penguins v. Islanders -108 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Islanders over the Pittsburgh Penguins. Unlike last season's playoffs, when all the games were played at a neutral site, this season's games are being played at the home rinks of the various teams. And some teams (like the New York Islanders and Pittsburgh Penguins) have out-performed at home this season. Indeed, the Penguins were 22-6 at home in the regular season, but just 15-13 (minus 3 games on the moneyline) on the road. Likewise, New York is 21-7 at home this year, including a perfect 6-0 against teams that outscore their opponents by at least a half-goal. That bodes well for New York tonight. As does the fact that the Isles are a super 33-20 (+14 games on the money line) after scoring less than two goals in their previous game. With the Islanders off a 2-1 loss to Pittsburgh in Game #2, we'll take the Islanders at home tonight, on Thursday. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-19-21 | Brewers -173 v. Royals | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -173 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Kansas City Royals. We're barely a month into the season and it seems like Brewers RH starter Corbin Burnes has already made enough history for an entire career. Burnes set the Major League record for the most strikeouts to start a season without issuing a single walk (58). Not surprisingly, his numbers so far this season are off the charts - a 1.57 ERA, 0.64 WHIP and 15.2 strikeout rate per nine innings. So it's somewhat surprising that Burnes has a losing record (2-3) in his six starts covering just over 34 innings. He'll try to even that record tonight in his second inter-league start of the season (Burnes opened 2021 with a dominant start against the Twins). His only other start against the Royals was a scoreless six inning outing last season in Miller Park and Burnes should find pitcher-friendly Kauffman Stadium to his liking. Despite their loss on Tuesday, the Brewers are 6-2 in the last eight meetings with the Royals. And they will no doubt be happy to see Brad Keller (and his 9.20 home ERA) on the mound tonight. Keller has made one start vs. the Brew Crew, and it wasn't successful, as he gave up five runs over five innings (9.00 ERA), in a 5-3 defeat. Even worse: Kansas City is a wallet-breaking 31-60 (minus 14 games on the moneyline) as an underdog priced from +125 to +175. Take Milwaukee. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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05-19-21 | White Sox -139 v. Twins | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Minnesota Twins. The White Sox are atop the Central division, with a 25-16 record, while the Twins are in the basement, with a 14-26 mark. Chicago has been installed as a road favorite this afternoon, and that bodes well, given its 44-16 record when priced from -125 to -175. Even better: Lucas Giolito has led his teams to wins in 28 of 44 road games in his career (+21 games on the moneyline). Meanwhile, the Twins are a poor 8-16 this season in afternoon games, while Matt Shoemaker's clubs have won just 12 of his 32 daytime starts. Take the White Sox. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-18-21 | Wild v. Golden Knights -159 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 12 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Vegas Golden Knights over the Minnesota Wild. With their 1-0 overtime victory over the Knights in Game 1 on Sunday, the Minnesota Wild made it 12 wins in 17 meetings with Vegas since the Knights came into the league in 2017. That's a pretty dominant advantage and you can bet that if Vegas could have hand-picked someone else to play in the first round, it probably would have. But the Knights won 40 games in the regular season and they only lost five home games in regulation, so they have to put all that recent history behind them and just focus on what they do best and they should be able to even this series on the Strip tonight. If the Knights can take one thing from Game 1 and use it for momentum tonight it's the fact that they dominated play on Sunday, out-shooting the visitors by a lopsided 42-30 margin. Only the play of Wild goalie Cam Talbot kept that game close. The Knights are 8-3 (+6 games on the moneyline) in their last 11 games after getting shutout in their previous contest (and 39-17 after scoring 1 goal or less), while the Wild are an awful 3-10 off a shutout win. Take Vegas to turn the tables on Minnesota tonight. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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05-18-21 | Pirates v. Cardinals -119 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 3 h 37 m | Show |
At 7:45 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Pittsburgh Pirates. It's early in the season still, but the hard-luck pitching award just might have to go the Cardinals' John Gant. The 28-year-old has a 1.83 ERA in seven starts covering just over 34 innings, and yet Gant's record is just 2-3. Perhaps a start against the 17-23 Pirates will help to turn Gant's fortunes around. Pittsburgh's JT Brubaker has also put up some pretty gaudy numbers this season. In seven starts, the 27-year-old RH is 3-2 with a 2.58 ERA in just over 38 innings. But he already has a start against the Division-leading Cards and that one was Brubaker's worst start of the season as he allowed three runs on seven hits in just five innings. This has been one of the most lopsided series in the National League recently as the Cardinals are 20-6 in the last 26 meetings. And the Pirates are 23-48 in the last 71 meetings here at Busch Stadium. The Pirates are also 1-6 (-5 games on the moneyline) in Brubaker's last seven road starts. Take the Cardinals. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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05-18-21 | Islanders v. Penguins -130 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Penguins over the New York Islanders. Four of the first seven 2021 NHL playoff games have gone to OT and a fifth easily could have. If this second game of the Pittsburgh-New York series heads there, it's likely bad news for the Pens, who lost Game 1 and need to dominate tonight before this series heads to Long Island. The Pens could get a huge boost by the return of C Evgeni Malkin who's been battling a lower body injury, but even if the 34-year-old can't re-join his team, Pittsburgh should still have enough firepower to level this series. Despite their victory on Sunday, the Isles are just 2-6 in the last eight meetings with the Pens and 16-35 in the last 51 here at the Igloo. The Isles will likely get #1 goalie Semyon Varlamov back tonight, which will be welcomed, even though Ilya Sorokin performed very well in Game 1. But I don't think that will be enough, as Pittsburgh is 17-4 (+12 games on the moneyline) in its last 21 revenging a loss vs. an opponent. And it's 15-2 at home off a loss in its previous game. Take the Penguins. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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05-18-21 | Red Sox +120 v. Blue Jays | Top | 0-8 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 30 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over Toronto. The Red Sox come into this game off a 1-run loss to the Angels, and have been installed as a road underdog tonight with Eduardo Rodriguez on the hill. Rodriguez faced Toronto earlier this year, and got the win in a 4-2 Boston victory. His mound opponent then, was also the same as tonight (Hyun-Jin Ryu). Ryu gave up 4 runs over 5 innings in that game, and has a career 5.81 record vs. the Red Sox in four starts. He's 0-3 in those four games. Finally, Boston is 8-1 its last nine as an underdog, and 87-63 its last 150 off a loss. Take the Red Sox. |
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05-18-21 | Marlins v. Phillies -173 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 2 h 58 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over Miami. zack Wheeler gets the ball for the Phillies today, and he brings a 2.85 ERA and 1.02 WHIP into the contest. He's also 8-3 vs. Miami in 15 starts, with a 1.87 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. The Phillies are a stellar 14-2 as a home favorite priced from -125 to -175, and 25-11 after allowing 9+ runs in their previous game. Take the Phillies. |
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05-17-21 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -190 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 40 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over Arizona. Los Angeles will hand the ball to Walker Buehler tonight. And all Buehler has done in his last 5 starts vs. the Diamondbacks is give up just 6 earned runs over 28 2-3 innings (1.88 ERA), with 36 strikeouts and just 25 baserunners (0.87 WHIP). Not surprisingly, the Dodgers went 4-1 in those five starts. Buehler will face Arizona's veteran southpaw, Madison Bumgarner. Earlier in Bumgarner's career, he was a Dodger killer, as he won 13 of his first 18 decisions. But lately, he's struggled vs. Los Angeles, as he's won just 2 of his last 11 decisions, including 0-5 since 2018. The Dodgers are a powerful 45-13 (+19 games on the moneyline) as a home favorite, priced from -175 to -250, while the Diamondbacks are a horrible 39-130 (minus 55 games on the moneyline) as a road underdog, priced from +175 to +250. Take Los Angeles tonight. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-17-21 | Indians +125 v. Angels | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 2 m | Show |
At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Los Angeles Angels. Two relatively unknown lefthanders go opposite each other in this Monday night match-up of AL clubs. But don't feel bad for not knowing who Sam Hentges is. The rookie southpaw was a fourth round pick by Cleveland seven years ago and it seemed like he would be destined for life as a long reliever in the Majors this season and perhaps for his career. But fifth starter Logan Allen struggled mightily and was finally demoted which opened up a rotation spot and it appears Hentges has it -- at least for now. Hentges was given the chance to start his first MLB game on May 12 and he blanked the Cubs over four and two-thirds innings while striking out six. So his second start this evening is not surprising. The Indians are 35-16 in the last 51 meetings including 8-2 in the last 10 here in Anaheim. The Angels will go with LHP Patrick Sandoval who has a career record of 1-9 in his three seasons with the team (22 games including 15 starts). Take the Tribe. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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05-17-21 | Predators v. Hurricanes -179 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Hurricanes over the Nashville Predators. With most of the focus being on the Maple Leafs, Lightning, Knights, Penguins, Capitals, and Avalanche, the Carolina Hurricanes have quietly put together one of the best seasons on record. Their 80 point total (36-12-8) is more than all but two teams in the league (Vegas and Colorado) and they only lost three games at home in regulation all season. Their first round series comes against a Predators team that many didn't think would be in the post-season right now. They finished the regular season strong, winning four of their last five games, including their last two against this 'Canes club to punch their ticket to the playoffs. But despite those two victories to end the regular season, the Preds are just 3-13 in their last 16 games vs. Carolina including 0-4 in their last four meetings here in Raleigh. Nashville is just 6-16 (-13 games on the moneyline) in their last 22 coming off of two consecutive wins against a Division rival. Take the Hurricanes. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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05-17-21 | Bruins -129 v. Capitals | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Boston Bruins over the Washington Capitals. The Caps prevailed in Game one of this series in OT, but that important home victory came with a price. Up 1-0 and seemingly in control of things, goalie Vitek Vanecek sprawled to make a save on Jake DeBrusk but instead gave up the tying goal and remained face down on the ice. He was helped off with an obvious lower-body injury and the veteran Craig Anderson had to fill in for the Caps the rest of the game. Although Anderson acquitted himself well the rest of the way, he will have to carry the load for the Caps tonight and maybe beyond and that's a lot to ask of a 40-year-old third string goalie who has appeared in a total of four regular season games for his team. On the other side, Tuukka Rask was brilliant for the Bruins and he'll no doubt get the call again tonight in net for Game two. Normally the veteran goalie in a game, Rask is seven years Anderson's junior. Rask has a career 51-42 record with a 2.20 GAA in 93 NHL post-season starts. Take Boston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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05-16-21 | Nuggets v. Blazers -11 | Top | 116-132 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over Denver. If the Trail Blazers win this game, they will avoid the dreaded play-in round, and be seeded #6 in the Western conference. Denver also would like to win, but their benefit of securing the #3 seed rather than the #4 seed isn't as great as Portland's. It's true that Denver won its 3rd straight game (and 2nd straight by double-digits) when it defeated Detroit, 114-103, on Friday. But the Nuggets are a poor 3-14 ATS off back to back double-digit wins. Meanwhile, Portland falls into a 28-6 ATS division revenge angle of mine which plays on certain revenge-minded home favorites of -6 (or more) points in the regular season.  Lay the points with the Trail Blazers. |
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05-16-21 | Clippers -7.5 v. Thunder | Top | 112-117 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over Oklahoma City. The Thunder have lost 23 of their last 24 games, and are clearly pointing ahead toward the draft lottery. They've lost their last five games by 21, 39, 28, 16 and 16 points. Los Angeles still has an incentive to win this game for playoff positioning, and will also look to remove the stench from a 122-115 loss at Houston on Friday. The Clippers are 22-7 ATS their last 29 on the road off a loss. Take the Clippers minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-16-21 | Cavs v. Nets -15 | Top | 109-123 | Loss | -112 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Cleveland. The Cavs have not been competitive down the stretch, as they've lost 12 of 13 games, including a 15-point defeat at the hands of Washington, on Friday. Interestingly, the Nets have dropped both meetings this season to the woeful Cavaliers. And they lost each by 12 points! With that as a backdrop, we'll take Brooklyn to close out their season with a big win this evening. Brooklyn falls into a 166-98 ATS revenge angle of mine, while Cleveland is a nasty 13-31 ATS off a point spread defeat this season, and 27-48 ATS off a loss by 15+ points. Take the Nets. |
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05-16-21 | Rockets v. Hawks -11 | Top | 95-124 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks minus the points over Houston. The Rockets are 17-54 this season after upsetting the Clippers to snap a 7-game slide. But faithful followers know I love playing against bad teams off wins. And this is a great spot to do so, given it's Houston's final road game of the season. The Rockets fall into a 13-57 ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams in late season games, while Atlanta applies to a 120-55 ATS 'momentum' system, based on its 116-93 victory over Orlando on Thursday. Lay the points with the Hawks. |
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05-16-21 | Cardinals +115 v. Padres | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the San Diego Padres. San Diego has taken the first two games of this 3-game series, so it will be up to lefty Kwang-Hyun Kim to help the Redbirds avoid the sweep. Kim has thrived in the underdog role, as the Cardinals are a sensational 7-1 with him on the hill, when dressed up as the dog. San Diego will also turn to a southpaw this evening, as rookie Ryan (son of David) Weathers will toe the rubber for the Padres. We'll go against the young pitcher, as St. Louis is 5-2 this season vs. lefties, while the Padres are a poor 29-37 (minus 14 games on the moneyline) vs. opposing lefty starters. |
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05-16-21 | Grizzlies v. Warriors -4.5 | Top | 101-113 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over Memphis. The Grizzlies won their fifth straight game on Friday, with a 1-point triumph over Sacramento. They'll now travel to San Francisco to play a critical game (for both teams) vs. Golden State. Because of the importance of this afternoon's game, Warriors' coach Steve Kerr rested his stars on Friday because this Sunday game would be for "all the marbles" anyway. But the Warriors won that Friday game, 125-122. That was the Warriors' fifth straight win and cover, and I look for them to stretch their streak to six straight this afternoon. The Warriors fall into an 84-45 "Last Home Game" system of mine, while Memphis applies to a negative 48-76 ATS "Last Road Game" system which goes against certain teams in their final road game that are headed to the playoffs. And Memphis is also a wallet-breaking 24-42 ATS off 5+ wins. Take the Warriors minus the points. |
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05-16-21 | Royals v. White Sox -149 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 3 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Kansas City Royals. After a red hot start, the Kansas City Royals came back down to earth and most people probably figured that they were done winning meaningful games for the season. But here we are on Sunday afternoon with KC having won two of the first three games of this series against the mighty White Sox. But today it will be a tall order as the Sox send out one of their brightest young stars -- and they have quite a few -- in RHP Dylan Cease. After some uninspiring results in his first two seasons in the Majors, Cease has flourished in 2021 so far. In seven starts, the 25-year-old is 2-2 with a 2.80 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and a strikeout rate of 12.5 per nine IP. Cease still has to cut down on his free passes but if he can do that -- and it seems as though he's starting to -- he could be one of the dominant starters in the league. Despite their taking two of three so far, including last night, the Royals are still just 4-14 in the last 18 meetings with the White Sox. Take Chicago. |
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05-16-21 | Braves v. Brewers -106 | Top | 9-10 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Atlanta Braves. The Braves go for a three-game sweep this afternoon after beating Milwaukee on Friday and Saturday. Yesterday's loss dropped the Brewers record to .500 for the first time in over a month. This afternoon it will be up to RHP Freddy Peralta to keep his team at or above the .500 mark. It's hard to have a better start than Peralta did in his last outing as he held the Cardinals to just one hit in seven innings with eight strikeouts and one walk. But his bullpen couldn't seal the deal and so Peralta will hope for a better outcome today against Atlanta and young RHP Huascar Ynoa. That last start lowered Peralta's ERA down to 2.77 in seven starts covering 37 innings with a 0.95 WHIP (Peralta also has two innings of relief under his belt). Peralta has always done by far his best work here in Milwaukee. In 40 career games (13 starts) at Miller Park, Peralta is 12-3 with a 2.93 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 160 strikeouts in just under 120 innings. Take the Brewers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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05-16-21 | Mets -112 v. Rays | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -112 | 4 h 2 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Tampa Bay Rays. One of the big questions surrounding players who opted out of playing in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic was whether they would be able to come back and be effective after a year off. Well, Mets' veteran RHP Marcus Stroman has answered that question with an emphatic "yes I can." Stroman's first season in New York was the second half of 2019 (after 5 1/2 with the Blue Jays) and he was solid if nothing else (4-2 with a 3.77 ERA in 11 Mets starts). And now after a voluntary year off, the 30-year-old is having one of his best campaigns, going 2-2 with a 2.03 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in seven starts covering just over 40 innings. Stroman is very familiar with the Rays and Tropicana Field from his years in the AL East. In six starts at The Trop, he is 4-1 with a 3.40 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in just under 40 innings. And, finally, the Mets do some of their best work recently before the sun goes down as they are 8-4 in their last 12 games during the day. Take New York. |
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05-16-21 | Hornets v. Wizards -6 | Top | 110-115 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 58 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Washington Wizards minus the points over Charlotte. This season finale is important to each of these two teams because of playoff positioning. But we'll take the homestanding Wizards, who play this game with revenge from a double-digit home loss to the Hornets on March 30. The Wizards are 51-33 ATS when playing with revenge, including 17-9 ATS this season. Moreover, Washington won its previous game, 120-105, on Friday vs. Cleveland. And the Wizards are 11-1 ATS this season off a double-digit win. Lay the points. |
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05-16-21 | Celtics v. Knicks -10.5 | Top | 92-96 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 58 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Knicks minus the points over Boston. Last night, the Knicks defeated Charlotte, 118-109, in overtime, and they'll now take on the Boston Celtics, who are locked into the #7 seed after winning yesterday vs. the Timberwolves. That win by the Celtics snapped their four-game losing streak, which was important for Brad Stevens' team. But off that win, I expect a less intense effort by the Celtics this afternoon, given there's really nothing to play for. New York lost by two points in the previous meeting vs. Boston, but is 15-6 ATS when playing with revenge this season. And the Knicks also fall into 74-37 and 64-34 ATS "Last Home Game" systems of mine. Take New York minus the points. |
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05-15-21 | Braves v. Brewers +106 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Atlanta Braves. It's the battle of the Andersons as Atlanta's Ian Anderson -- a RHP -- squares off against the Brewers and veteran southpaw Brett Anderson. After years of various injuries, Brett Anderson finally had a healthy campaign in 2019. In 31 starts that season, the then-31-year-old went 13-9 with a 3.89 ERA. And given all of the frustration he had in recent years before that, it must have felt like a Cy Young campaign to him. But despite that success in Oakland, the A's granted him free agency after that season and the Brewers signed him to a one-year contract. We all know what happened in 2020. So, when Anderson made it through the short season healthy and with decent results, the Brewers signed him again to a bargain basement $2.5 million contract for this season. So far, so good in 2021, as Anderson is 2-2 with a 3.54 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in five starts. Anderson's teams are 21-9 (+15 games on the moneyline) in his last 30 starts under the lights. Take the Brewers. As always good luck...Al McMordie.Â
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05-15-21 | Giants -121 v. Pirates | Top | 6-8 | Loss | -121 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
At 6:35 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Giants' Johnny Cueto came into this season off of two consecutive forgettable campaigns in 2019 and 2020. So it would have been easy to write him off as washed up at the ripe old baseball age of 35. You could do that with a lot of pitchers, but not with Cueto, who we've seen come back from what seemed like the end of his career before. The RH is having one his best seasons since he won 18 games and was an All Star in 2016. In four starts, Cueto is 2-1 with a 3.52 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and he has a 4:1 K:BB ratio in 23 innings. But the most important stat of all for tonight has to do with what Cueto has done in his career in Pittsburgh. In 18 starts here at PNC Park, Cueto is an incredible 12-2 with a 2.03 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 120 innings. No doubt this is Cueto's favorite place to pitch based on those numbers. And the Giants like it here too recently as, despite last night's 11-inning loss, they are 9-5 in the last 14 games in the Steel City. Take San Francisco. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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05-15-21 | Bulls v. Nets -11 | Top | 91-105 | Win | 100 | 6 h 39 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Chicago. The Bulls were officially eliminated from the Playoffs last night when the Washington Wizards bested the Cleveland Cavaliers, 120-105. Chicago will now travel to play the Nets, who are still locked in a battle with Milwaukee for playoff seeding. These two teams met earlier this week in the Windy City, and the Nets won that game, 115-107. That was, ironically, the same score of the teams' first meeting this season -- but that game was won by Chicago. We'll take the homestanding Nets, as they fall into a 27-3, 90% ATS late season system of mine, which is based on their current win streak. Even better: coach Steve Nash has stated that his All-Star triumvirate of Kevin Durant, James Harden and Kyrie Irving will all play in this game. And it will be the first time this troika has played together vs. the Bulls, and just the 8th time all season they all suited up for a game. Take Brooklyn to blow out Chicago. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-14-21 | Cardinals v. Padres -165 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 23 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the St. Louis Cardinals. Joe Musgrove has been a bit of an enigma so far this season. The 28-year-old RHP is in his first year in San Diego after being traded from the Pirates back in January. Despite some very dominant underlying statistics including a 3.00 ERA in seven starts with a 7.71 K:BB ratio -- and the fact that he threw the first no-hitter of the season in Texas back on April 9 -- Musgrove is just 2-4 in the W/L column. That wouldn't be unusual if it weren't for the fact that Musgrove plays for the Padres -- a team considered to have one of the best offensive lineups in the majors this year. Musgrove will try to even out that won-lost ledger a bit tonight with a start against the Cards. Although they have one of the best records in the NL, the Cards' schedule has been mostly vs. NL Central teams with some NL East clubs sprinkled in. The only West team St. Louis has faced so far is the Rockies, so this will be one of its first tests against a club with a winning record. Take the Padres. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-14-21 | Phillies +136 v. Blue Jays | Top | 5-1 | Win | 136 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Toronto Blue Jays. As a reliever, Phillies RH Vince Velasquez's season got off to a rough start. After three straight appearances out of the bullpen, the 28-year-old had posted a 9.00 ERA and had a 9:8 K:BB ratio. But Velasquez got a chance to start on April 23 and hasn't looked back. In four starts, Velasquez is 1-0 with a 3.20 ERA with 21 strikeouts and eight walks -- a far cry from those relief numbers. He tries to build on it today in start number five against the Jays -- a team against which he's had past success. In three career starts vs. Toronto, Velasquez is 2-0 with a 3.94 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 16 innings. This will be the first meeting between these two this season. However, the Phils took three of four when they met last September. The Jays' relief pitching has been pretty good, but their starting pitching ERA so far is 4.70, which is fourth-worst in the AL. Finally, consider that the Phils have been playing to the level of their competition lately as they are 7-0 in their last seven vs. winning teams. Take the Phillies in the underdog role tonight. |
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05-14-21 | Yankees -180 v. Orioles | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Baltimore Orioles. The Yankees got thumped by the Rays last night in Tampa, 9-1. If there's a cure for the boys in pinstripes after a lopsided loss like that, it's likely a weekend series against the Orioles in Baltimore. The Yankees are 39-12 in the 51 meetings with the O's but even more impressive is their 21-6 record in the last 27 games here at Camden Yards. Making Baltimore's task even harder tonight is the fact that two-time Cy Young award winner RH Corey Kluber will get the start for the visitors. Sure, the now 35-year-old's skills have eroded from when he was considered among the top three starters in baseball, but Kluber still knows how to get young players out (and the Orioles lineup is loaded with young, inexperienced players). In eight career starts vs. Baltimore covering 56 innings, Kluber is 4-1 with a 2.73 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 6.8 K:BB ratio. Take the Yankees. |
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05-13-21 | 76ers v. Heat +1.5 | Top | 94-106 | Win | 100 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat over the Philadelphia 76ers. These two teams played back-to-back games in January, and the Sixers won both meetings. But both were in Philadelphia. And each game was played when the Heat was playing awful basketball. The defending Eastern conference champs got off to a 7-14 start (6-13-1 ATS), but they've been playing very good basketball since. Indeed, over its last 48 games, Miami is 31-17 SU and 26-21-1 ATS). This will be Miami's final home game of the season, while it will also be the 76ers' final road game. And that set of events has triggered a very good 99-59-4 ATS "last home game" system of mine, which has gone 26-7-2 ATS since 2013, as well as a second "last home game" system which has cashed 84 of 129 since 1991. Although both of these teams would certainly like to win tonight's game for playoff positioning, it's less important to the 76ers, as they only need to win one of their final three games to secure the conference's #1 seed. And Philly has two very winnable home games vs. the Magic on deck. The Heat, on the other hand, are locked in a three-way battle for home court advantage with the Hawks and Knicks. And Miami has a difficult finishing schedule with road games at Milwaukee and Detroit on the weekend. I look for Miami to get the win tonight. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-12-21 | Blazers +3.5 v. Jazz | Top | 105-98 | Win | 100 | 15 h 24 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers + the points over Utah. After dropping seven of eight games in April, the Blazers have caught fire. Since April 27, they've won eight of nine, including 5-1 SU/ATS on the road. Tonight, they'll be in Salt Lake City to take on the league's #1 team, Utah. Portland has yet to defeat Utah this season, but the Jazz are currently playing short-handed, as Donavan Mitchell and Mike Conley remain sidelined. Portland blew out the Spurs (124-102) and Rockets (140-129) at home in their last two games -- both at home. And that bodes well for Portland tonight, as it's 27-10 ATS on the road off back to back home wins, including a perfect 8-0-1 ATS when priced from +3 to +5.5 points. Finally, the Jazz are a wallet-breaking 5-24-1 ATS vs. double-revenging foes, if the Jazz were not favored by 7+ points. Take the Trail Blazers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-12-21 | Cardinals v. Brewers -160 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the St. Louis Cardinals. The Brew Crew will hand the ball to RHP Brandon Woodruff this evening. And he's dominated the Cards in his career, with a 3-1 record, 2.45 ERA, and 1.01 WHIP. His most recent start (Sept 26, 2020) was his best, as he struck out 10 Cardinals over eight innings, and allowed just two hits and one walk, en route to a 3-0 shutout win. Woodruff's mound opponent will be John Gant. Unfortunately for St. Louis, Gant has made three starts vs. the Brewers in his career, and the Cards lost all three. His ERA vs. Milwaukee is 4.61, while his WHIP is a dreadful 1.83. We'll take Milwaukee as a home favorite tonight, as they're 24-8 their last 32 behind Woodruff, when installed as a favorite, including 16-4 at home. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-11-21 | Angels v. Astros -145 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Los Angeles Angels. Lance McCullers, Jr. will get the start for Houston tonight. And all McCullers has done this season is throw quality starts in five of his six outings, including his previous match-up against this Angels team, on April 25. In that game, the Houston RHP gave up just two runs in six innings, on three hits and two walks. For his career, McCullers has a super 3.20 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 14 starts vs. the Angels, which is in line with his overall 2021 stats (3.58 ERA; 1.16 WHIP). Meanwhile, his mound opponent, Shohei Ohtani, has a 7.72 ERA and 2.14 WHIP in three career starts vs. Houston. But the clincher is that Los Angeles has won just 21 of 76 games vs. American League pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 (or better). Take Houston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-11-21 | Mavs v. Grizzlies +2.5 | Top | 104-133 | Win | 100 | 4 h 60 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies + the points over the Dallas Mavericks. Memphis comes into this game off back-to-back wins over Toronto and New Orleans, and now sits just a half-game behind Golden State for the all-important #8 seed in the Play-In Round. Likewise, Dallas is playing well, with four straight wins. And the Mavericks also triumphed over Memphis in the first two meetings this season. But we'll take the revenge-minded Grizzlies as a home underdog tonight, as they're 21-12 ATS as an underdog this season. Even better: Memphis is 21-1 ATS at home when playing with revenge vs. an opponent off a win, provided Memphis was not favored by more than 2 points. Take the Grizzlies. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-11-21 | Canucks v. Jets -164 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Winnipeg Jets over the Vancouver Canucks. The Jets have already wrapped up a spot in the post-season, and will finish either 3rd or 4th, depending on whether the Montreal Canadiens can catch them. Winnipeg is only one point ahead of Montreal (but has played one less game), so it will do everything possible in its last two games to hold onto that position. The Canucks won't be skating in the post-season, as they've fallen to the cellar of the Division and will have to rebuild in the off-season. Last night, though, Vancouver didn't mail it in, as they defeated the Jets, 3-1. But I love Winnipeg in this rematch, as Vancouver is still just 7-20 in the last 27 meetings and 3-10 in the last 13 meetings in Winnipeg. And the Canucks are also a dreadful 13-24 off a road win. Meanwhile, Winnipeg is 33-19 (+25 games on the moneyline) off a division loss. Take the Jets. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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05-11-21 | Blue Jays -110 v. Braves | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 11 m | Show |
At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Atlanta Braves. Bryse Wilson will get the ball for the Braves tonight, while veteran lefty, Robbie Ray, will start for Toronto. Interestingly, these two teams already met three times earlier this season in Dunedin, Florida - the Blue Jays' home away from home. Toronto swept that series, three games to none, including a 13-5 blowout behind Ray (6 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 H) on April 30. And, subsequent to that game, Ray went out and led his team to a 9-4 victory at Oakland (6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H). Over his last three starts, his WHIP is a super 0.91 (18 2/3 IP, 17 H, 0 BB, 23 K). So, Toronto will have a nice advantage on the mound tonight, as Braves' RHP Bryse Wilson brings a 6.75 ERA and 1.91 WHIP into the contest. Ray's teams are a solid 14-8 when he's worked with an extra day or two of rest; 19-12 as a road favorite; and 22-12 in his nighttime starts. Take the Blue Jays. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-10-21 | Rangers v. Giants -141 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 31 m | Show |
At 9:45 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Texas Rangers. Whatever is in the water in the San Francisco Bay, it is enabling the Giants to resurrect veteran pitchers whose careers appear to be on a serious downslide. Witness former Orioles/Braves RHP Kevin Gausman and former Reds prospect Anthony DeSclafani, each enjoying incredible success here in San Francisco. It seems we can also add to that list former Braves/Dodgers southpaw Alex Wood. After being left to the MLB scrap heap following a 2018 trade by the Dodgers, Wood floundered the next two seasons with Cincinnati (2019) and then back in L.A. (2020), before becoming a free agent who failed to attract much interest. Enter the Giants who signed him to a team-friendly one-year deal and -- all of a sudden -- Wood is flourishing again. In four starts, the 30-year-old is 3-0 with a 1.96 ERA and 0.78 WHIP in 23 innings. And he also has a career 0.64 ERA in two starts vs. Texas. Meanwhile, the Rangers are 48-80 (minus 15 games on the moneyline) on the road, including 0-5 in their last five inter-league road games. And they're 1-4 in the last five meetings here in San Francisco. Take the Giants. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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05-10-21 | Pelicans v. Grizzlies -9.5 | Top | 110-115 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 55 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points over New Orleans. The NBA's Western conference has a great race between the Grizzlies and Golden State Warriors coming down the stretch. Both teams have lost 33 games and, as it now stands, would meet each other in the 'play-in' round should the season end today. But there will be a significant advantage conferred to the team which finishes with the better record, as it will only have to win one of two 'play-in' games, while the team with the lesser record will have to win two 'play-in' games to advance into the conference quarterfinals. So, these final games are ultra-important for Memphis. We'll lay the points tonight, as the Grizzlies play with revenge from a 31-point blowout loss to New Orleans earlier in the season. And NBA teams with a better record than their opponent, have gone 71-48-2 ATS if they were playing with revenge from a 25-point (or worse) defeat, and their opponent was off a SU/ATS win. With the Pelicans in off an upset win over Charlotte on Sunday, we'll fade Stan Van Gundy's men tonight. Take Memphis. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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05-10-21 | Lightning +110 v. Panthers | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 52 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the Florida Panthers. Both teams will be highly motivated for this final regular season game. If Florida secures at least one point, then it will have home ice advantage over Tampa in the opening round of the playoffs. But if the Lightning win in regulation, and earn two points, then they'll leapfrog Florida into second place, and host the Panthers for the first two playoff games. In Saturday's game, the Panthers dominated, and won by a 5-1 score. But off that blowout loss -- Tampa's 2nd straight defeat -- we'll take the defending Stanley Cup champs tonight. The Lightning are a super 7-0 on the road off back to back losses, and 38-19 when playing with revenge. And they're 28-4 after not scoring 2+ goals in their previous game. Finally, the Panthers are 36-53 (minus 20 games on the moneyline) after winning by more than three goals in their previous game. Take the Lightning tonight. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-09-21 | Rays +102 v. A's | Top | 4-3 | Win | 102 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Oakland Athletics. Two starters who weren't on anyone's radar prior to the start of the season will face off this afternoon in pitcher-friendly Oakland (now RingCentral) Coliseum. And while the A's LH Cole Irwin doesn't have much in the way of pedigree, Tampa Bay southpaw Shane McClanahan does -- and then some. McClanahan was a first-round selection by the Rays in the 2018 amateur draft out of the University of South Florida which just happens to be in Tampa, so he didn't even have to pack a suitcase. Even though he didn't pitch past the AA level in the Minors, the Rays felt that McClanahan was ready and they promoted him to make his Big League debut this season. So far, the 24-year-old has not disappointed, allowing two earned runs on seven hits with 10 strikeouts and two walks in his two starts covering eight innings. The Rays lost here last night as a favorite, however they are 6-1 in their last seven games as a road underdog. Take Tampa Bay. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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05-09-21 | Padres -152 v. Giants | Top | 11-1 | Win | 100 | 3 h 39 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over San Francisco. The Padres (along with the Dodgers and Yankees) were expected to be among the sport's top three teams this season. But they've all gotten off to slow starts. In contrast, the Giants were expected to be below .500, but have sprinted out to a 20-13 record. Yesterday, San Francisco won its second straight game. But it's 3-6 this season off back to back wins. San Diego has yet to announce its starting pitcher, but it appears as if Chris Paddack will be activated after being out for COVID19 protocols. If Paddack can't go, then Ryan Weathers or Dinelson Lamet would be candidates to make the start. Paddack was pitching well before being sidelined, with a 2.94 ERA over his last three starts. But regardless of who gets the ball for San Diego, we'll back the Padres off back to back upset losses on the road vs. a division rival. Take San Diego. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-09-21 | Blue Jays v. Astros -141 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 4 h 21 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Toronto Blue Jays. Veteran RHP Zack Greinke may have a lost a step or two compared with the All Star form he exhibited in his prime. But the 37-year-old still knows how to get batters out better than most starters in the league and as he will be a free agent at the end of the season, Greinke wants to demonstrate that he can still be an effective starter. He hasn't missed a beat so far in 2021, starting seven games while logging a competitive 3.76 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in just under 41 innings. This will be his first start of the season vs. Toronto, a team he's faced 12 times in his distinguished career (10 starts). The Jays #1 pitching prospect, 24-year-old RH Nate Pearson will make his season debut this afternoon after a groin injury delayed his MLB season (he pitched for Toronto in 2020). Although he is very talented, it is likely that Pearson will need a start or two to shake off the cobwebs. The 'Stros are 17-7 (+8 games on the moneyline) in Greinke's last 24 first-half starts. And Greinke's teams have gone 159-88 (+44 games on the moneyline) in his home starts. Take Houston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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05-08-21 | Nets -3.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 125-119 | Win | 100 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Denver. We played against Denver last night, and got the $$$ with the Utah Jazz, who won, 127-120, as a 4.5-point home favorite. "Out of the frying pan, and into the fire" would certainly apply to Denver's situation tonight, as it has to go from playing the league's #1 team to a game against a rested Nets squad. And, to make matters worse, the Nets have lost their last four games SU/ATS, so they'll be in an ornery mood tonight. Denver is a poor 52-96-1 ATS at home when playing without rest. And it's 0-8 ATS its last eight (and 8-29 ATS its last 37) against the Nets, if it wasn't favored by 5+ points. Take Brooklyn. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-08-21 | Dodgers -160 v. Angels | Top | 14-11 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Los Angeles Angels. The defending World Series champs haven't gotten off to a good start this season. And tonight, they'll hand the ball to their veteran southpaw, Clayton Kershaw, as he'll start on three days rest for the first time in five seasons (and first time ever in the regular season). Of course, the reason Kershaw will be starting on such short rest is that he had his shortest start of his career this past Tuesday vs. the Cubs. Kershaw threw just 39 pitches in one inning, and the Cubs scored four runs against him en route to a 7-1 victory. We'll take the Dodgers to bounce back on this Saturday, as Angels starter Dylan Bundy has led his teams to victory in just one of his last five starts vs. the National League, and nine of his last 27 home starts. Take the Dodgers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-08-21 | Blue Jays +131 v. Astros | Top | 8-4 | Win | 131 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Houston Astros. Steven Matz was a second round draft pick of the Mets way back in 2009. The New York native made his Major League debut in 2015 and proceeded to play the next six seasons in New York. Expectations were sky high but those expectations were never realized. So, this past January, Matz was dealt to Toronto where he has begun his second chapter with the Blue Jays. Matz's 4.78 ERA in six starts this season is a bit misleading as he also has a 4-2 record. And Matz has made four starts where he has allowed three earned runs or less. Having spent all of his previous six seasons in the National League, this will be Matz's first career start vs. the Astros. Take the Blue Jays. |
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05-08-21 | Lightning -108 v. Panthers | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the Florida Panthers. These two teams are tied in the division standings for second place, with a two-game series at Florida over the next three days to decide which of the teams will have home ice advantage in the first round of the playoffs. Florida got the better of Tampa Bay in the last meeting, as it won, 5-3, at Tampa on April 17. And the Panthers are currently riding a 4-game win streak. Still, we will play on the Lightning tonight, as they're 11-3 this season, and 38-18 their last 56 when playing with revenge.  Meanwhile, the Panthers are an awful 67-83 (minus 24 games on the moneyline) off 3+ wins. Take Tampa. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-08-21 | Reds v. Indians -112 | Top | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over Cincinnati. These two pitchers are going in opposite directions -- at least when you look at the win column. In Aaron Civale's six starts this season, the Indians have won five of the six games. And Civale's ERA is 3.20, with a 1.04 WHIP. In contrast, the Reds have dropped five of Luis Castillo's starts, including each of his last four. And his ERA is an ugly 6.07, with a 1.61 WHIP. Even worse: dating back to last season, the Reds have lost 15 of his 21 starts (and eight of his last 10 road starts). And, finally, Cincy is a horrid 22-44 in competitively-priced road games, when priced from -125 to +125. Take Cleveland. |
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05-08-21 | Brewers -117 v. Marlins | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Miami Marlins. The Marlins put a hurting on the Brewers at home on Friday night and now the Crew will try to get some revenge in this Saturday rematch. RH Adrian Houser will get his seventh start of the season for Milwaukee. After a a 2020 campaign that he would like to forget (a 1-6 record in 12 games with a 5.30 ERA), Houser has rebounded nicely this season. In six starts covering just under 31 innings, Houser has logged a 2-3 record with a 3.52 ERA. Miami's upset victory on Friday extended the Brew Crew's losing streak to six coming into tonight's game. In two previous games vs. the Marlins (one start), Houser is 1-0 with a 3.12 ERA and 0.92 WHIP with 14 strikeouts and two walks in 8 2/3 innings. Despite their loss on Friday night, the Brewers are 4-1 in the last five meetings with the Marlins in South Florida. And Miami is a woeful 15-28 in its last 43 games vs. NL Central opponents. Take the Brewers. |
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05-08-21 | Padres -131 v. Giants | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -131 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over San Francisco. We played on the Giants as a home underdog last night, and got the cash as the Giants got to Blake Snell early, and ended up winning 5-4. Today, San Diego will hand the ball to Joe Musgrove, who will seek to avenge his loss to the Giants and RHP Kevin Gausman last Sunday. We also played on the Giants and Gausman in that game last weekend, but we will switch gears and take San Diego this afternoon. For technical support, consider that Gausman is a wallet-breaking 26-38 (minus 15 games on the moneyline) when pitching on an extra day or two of rest. Meanwhile, Musgrove's teams have gone 8-3 when priced as a road favorite of -150 (or less). Take the Padres to bounce back this afternoon. |
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05-07-21 | Knicks v. Suns -6 | Top | 105-128 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points with New York. Last week, we took the Suns at the Knicks, and were rewarded with an 8-point win, 118-110. And we'll come right back with Phoenix in this rematch. The Suns were upset by Atlanta, 135-103, on Wednesday. But they're 45-14 ATS their last 59 off an upset road loss. Take Phoenix. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-07-21 | Spurs -2.5 v. Kings | Top | 113-104 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Sacramento. San Antonio dropped its fifth straight game on Wednesday, 126-94, at Utah, while the Kings won for the fourth straight time, 104-93, at Indiana. The Spurs are in the 10th spot right now, and need to stay ahead of Sacramento and New Orleans to qualify for the play-in round. Coming into tonight, the Spurs are 1.5 games in front of the Pelicans, and 2.5 games clear of Sacramento. This game is the only match-up left on the schedule which pits two of the three teams, so this game will be critical in determining which of the three teams earns a post-season berth. We'll take the Spurs minus the points, as the Silver and Black have gone 42-12 ATS as a favorite off a loss by 18+ points, if their opponent was off a point spread win in its previous game. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-07-21 | Avalanche -273 v. Kings | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Avalanche over Los Angeles. The Avalanche are in a tight battle with the Minnesota Wild for home ice advantage in the Playoffs' opening round, so they will remain focused down the stretch of this season. Tonight, Colorado will look to bounce back off a loss to the San Jose Sharks, 3-2, on Wednesday. But, if history is any indication, the Avs will bounce back, as they're 12-4 this season off a loss. Los Angeles has won its last two games, but is a wallet-breaking 7-13 (minus 5 games on the moneyline) its last 20, and 28-50 (minus 11 games on the moneyline) its last 78, off a win in its previous game. And the Kings are 11-24 (minus 9 games on the moneyline) their last 35 off a road win. Take Colorado. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-07-21 | Padres v. Giants +128 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 128 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
At 9:45 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over San Diego. Anthony DeSclafani is quietly having a solid season for San Francisco. He's made six starts, and has compiled a 2.00 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. Even better: in his two home starts, he's yet to allow a run, and has allowed just 11 baserunners over 15 innings (0.73 WHIP). Blake Snell has been merely pedestrian this season, as his ERA is 3.51, while his WHIP is 1.48. On the road, those numbers take a severe hit, as his Road ERA is 7.50, and his Road WHIP is 2.33. The Giants are 10-3 this season at home; 9-2 off a loss; and 9-6 as an underdog. Take San Francisco. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-07-21 | Rays v. A's -125 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Oakland A's over Tampa Bay. Rich Hill has been ineffective this season, as his ERA is 6.40. And, away from home, it's 12.00. In contrast, southpaw Sean Manaea will attempt to lead the A's to victory in his sixth straight start, as the A's have won each of his last five outings, by a combined score of 30-12. One of those victories was against this Tampa Bay team, on April 26, when Manaea gave up just 1 run over five innings. That game lowered his career ERA vs. Tampa to 3.67. Meanwhile, Hill's 1-2 in three starts vs. Oakland, with a 5.25 ERA. Take the A's. |
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05-07-21 | Nuggets v. Jazz -3 | Top | 120-127 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Denver. The Nuggets blew out New York, 113-97, on Wednesday, for their 18th win over their last 22 games. But off that 16-point blowout, we will fade the Nuggets tonight, as they're 16-38 ATS on the road off a win by more than 8 points. Lay the points with the Jazz. |
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05-07-21 | Cavs +10.5 v. Mavs | Top | 90-110 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers + the points over Dallas. The Cavaliers come into this game on an 8-game SU/ATS losing streak, and will play the Mavericks twice this weekend (today, and Sunday). We'll grab the points with Cleveland in this game, as rested road underdogs off a SU/ATS loss, and 7 ATS losses in a row, are a solid 88-54-3 ATS, including 29-10 ATS vs. foes playing their third game in four nights. And that's the situation here, as the Mavericks played last night vs. Brooklyn, as well as on Tuesday, at Miami. Take Cleveland + the points. |
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05-07-21 | Mariners +110 v. Rangers | Top | 5-4 | Win | 110 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Texas Rangers. When we last saw the Mariners on the baseball field, it was on Wednesday afternoon and they were being no-hit over nine innings by John Means in a 6-0 drubbing by the Orioles. Means might just be the best pitcher in the AL right now and there is no John Means-caliber pitcher starting games for the Rangers currently. It appears the M's are now using a six-man rotation and tonight it will be RH Chris Flexen taking the ball. Far from a household name, the 26-year-old has been quietly effective this season, going 2-1 with a 3.33 ERA in five starts covering 27 innings. Most importantly, Seattle is 4-1 in Flexen's five trips to the hill. This weekend series marks the first meetings of these two teams this year and the Mariners have dominated play between them recently. In the last seven meetings, Seattle is 7-0 going back to last August 21. Take the Mariners. |
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05-06-21 | Hawks v. Pacers +6 | Top | 126-133 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers + the points over the Atlanta Hawks. Atlanta comes into tonight's game off a 3-game SU/ATS sweep of its home stand, including a blowout win last night over Phoenix. Meanwhile, the Pacers check in off back to back SU/ATS wins. We'll take Indiana tonight, and go against the Hawks, as unrested NBA road teams off 3 SU/ATS home wins are a poor 31% ATS vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS losses. Take the Pacers as a home underdog on Thursday. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-06-21 | Nets -4 v. Mavs | Top | 109-113 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Dallas. The Nets were drilled, 115-98, earlier this season by Dallas, so they will seek revenge in this rematch in Texas. And they're 45-22 ATS on the road when playing with revenge, so that bodes well for the Nets tonight. It's true that Brooklyn comes into this game off 3 straight losses. But .650 (or better) road favorites have covered 57% over the last 31 years as road favorites of 3+ losses. Take Brooklyn. |
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05-06-21 | Bulls -2 v. Hornets | Top | 120-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bulls minus the points over Charlotte. The Bulls are favored on the road tonight, even though they have a worse record than Charlotte, and have dropped each of their last four games, SU/ATS. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the home underdog Hornets. But consider that NBA road favorites (or PK), that are off back to back SU/ATS losses, have covered the spread 67% since 1990 against .400 (or better) foes that have a better W/L record. More good news for Chicago: leading scorer Zach Levine (27.5 ppg) should return to action tonight. Lay the points with Chicago. |
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05-06-21 | Devils v. Islanders -240 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -240 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Islanders over the New Jersey Devils. It seems not that long ago, the Islanders were the team to beat in the East Division. Fast forward and now the team that calls Long Island home is sitting in fourth place, although the Isles have locked up a coveted playoff spot. But the last thing you want to do is go into the post-season having lost a string of games to bad teams, yet that's exactly what the Isles are faced with tonight if they drop this one to the Devils. They come in having been swept in a pair by the Buffalo Sabres. So you can bet that, although the Isles don't have to win in these final few games, they certainly want to (and need to) if they're to go into the playoffs on the right note. They're in a great position tonight to do just that as the Devils are 2-12 in the last 14 meetings here on the island and 1-7 in their last eight games as a road underdog. New York is 30-18 (+12 games on the moneyline) in its last 48 immediately after allowing three or more goals in two straight games. Take the Isles. As always, good luck...Al McMordie
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05-06-21 | Blue Jays v. A's +123 | Top | 10-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
At 3:35 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Toronto Blue Jays. Another Major League Baseball season and another over-achieving Oakland A's team. The team that always seems to do more with less is doing it again in 2021. The A's won the first two games of this four-game series to bump their record to 19-12 and their lead in the AL West to 2 1/2 games. The pitching depth is once again one of the best in the Majors as a healthy RHP Mike Fiers didn't even get his first start until April 30 when manager Bob Melvin decided to go to a six-man rotation. But now the 35-year-old veteran's presence as a starter is even more important as the team just put LH Jesus Luzardo on the IL with a broken finger. Fiers' first outing was solid, as he threw six innings, allowing three runs on six hits in a quality start against Baltimore. He should be able to build on that today especially since he's back here at home where he has an amazing 15-5 record and 3.43 ERA in 33 career games (32 starts) covering 189 innings. Take Oakland. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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05-06-21 | Brewers -115 v. Phillies | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 55 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over Philadelphia. The Brewers will hand the ball to RHP Brandon Woodruff this afternoon, and all he's done this season is go 2-0 in six starts, with a 1.80 ERA and 0.80 WHIP. The Brewers have won five of his six starts this season, including a 6-5 win over the world champion Dodgers his last time out. Even better: Woodruff is 2-0 in his career vs. the Phillies with an ERA of 0.50, and a WHIP of 0.55. In his three starts vs. the Phils, he's allowed just three hits in 18 innings, and has struck out 18. Take Milwaukee this afternoon. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-05-21 | Kings v. Pacers -5.5 | Top | 104-93 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers minus the points over Sacramento. The Pacers were defeated, 154-141 by the Wizards on Monday, while Sacramento won last night, 103-99, in Oklahoma City. That was Sacramento's 3rd straight win, and 8th cover (against just two ATS losses) in its last 10 games. When these two teams met in Sacramento earlier this season, the Kings upset the Pacers, 127-122. But I love Indiana to turn the tables tonight, as it's 22-11 its last 33 as a revenge-minded favorite. And it's 49-24 ATS off a loss by 13+ points, if it's now matched up against a .400 (or better) foe. Take the Pacers minus the points. Good luck as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-05-21 | Indians v. Royals +145 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Royals over the Cleveland Indians. Brady Singer is having a nice season for the Royals, as he's made five starts, and has a 3.09 ERA in those games. Indeed, if you take away Singer's first start of the season, in which he gave up five runs in 3 1-3 innings, then his ERA is a fantastic 1.35, with a WHIP of 1.00. Singer's made two starts in his career (both last season) vs. Cleveland, and KC has gone 2-0 in those games, and Singer's ERA was 1.38, with an 0.61 WHIP. Take the Royals as a big home underdog tonight. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-05-21 | Golden Knights -118 v. Wild | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Vegas Golden Knights over the Minnesota Wild. Since the end of March -- more than a month now -- the Golden Knights have turned to a goalie strategy that not many teams have employed recently in NHL. Specifically, since March 27, Vegas has alternated between Robin Lehner and Marc-Andre Fleury for 20 games. Other teams may want to take note, as the strategy has been successful with the Knights posting a 14-6 record during that time. As a result, Vegas has catapulted past Colorado into first place in the West. This is a revenge situation tonight as the Wild beat the Knights on Monday, 6-5. That game had Lehner in net for Vegas, so we should expect to see Fleury this evening. That win makes five in a row for the Wild over the Knights so you can be sure that Vegas wants to put a stop to the bleeding. Allowing five goals in the last last game may be just what the doctor ordered for Vegas in this one as it is 5-0 in its last five after allowing five or more goals in its previous game, and it's 64-37 after allowing more than 3 goals in its previous game. Meanwhile, the Wild are a dismal 13-23 (minus 17 games on the moneyline) after scoring more than three goals in each of their three previous games. Take the Knights. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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05-05-21 | Astros +127 v. Yankees | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the New York Yankees. The first game of this series went to the Yankees in pretty dominating fashion on Tuesday and now the 'Stros will try to even the score. Despite a career ERA of 2.78 and 10 games now under his belt (four of them starts), RHP Luis Garcia is still searching for his first MLB victory. Garcia gets start number four in his sixth appearance this season and the 24-year-old Venezuelan righthander will pull out all of the stops in hopes of getting that first career win. The Yanks will go with LHP Jordan Montgomery who is 1-1 with a 4.39 ERA in just under 27 innings of action. Montgomery goes in start number six tonight and it will be his fourth career outing vs. the Astros (all starts). In those three previous starts vs. Houston, Montgomery has posted an 0-1 record with a 4.63 ERA in 12 1/3 innings. This could be a very good match-up for Garcia and his team as the Astros are 64-33 (+11 games on the moneyline) in their last 97 games vs. teams with a LH starter. Take Houston |
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05-05-21 | Diamondbacks +138 v. Marlins | Top | 0-8 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over the Miami Marlins. The D-backs will hand the ball to Luke Weaver, while Miami will start RHP, Pablo Lopez. Unfortunately for the Marlins, Lopez has been a big money-burner in his career, as his teams have won just 17 of his 49 starts (minus 11 games on the moneyline). Even worse: Lopez's ERA in his career starts vs. Arizona is 4.50. The Diamondbacks are 6-2 this season as a road underdog priced from +125 to +175 this season, and we'll take the live underdog this evening. |
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05-05-21 | Giants -105 v. Rockies | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
At 3:10 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Colorado Rockies. The Rockies will start Jon Gray on this Wednesday, while the Giants will hand the ball to Logan Webb. Gray has had scant success vs. the Giants in his career, as he's 1-6, with an ERA of 6.16, and an ugly 1.70 WHIP. And Gray's teams have gone 3-9 in his 12 starts vs. the Giants. In contrast, Webb is 1-0 in three starts vs. Colorado, including a quality start (5 IP, 3 ER) in a no-decision back on April 10 of this year. The Giants are 28-15 their last 43 vs. losing teams (+13 games on the moneyline), and 8-1 this season in day games. Meanwhile, Colorado is a poor 4-7 in afternoon starts. Take San Francisco. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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05-04-21 | Warriors v. Pelicans -2 | Top | 103-108 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans over the Golden State Warriors. Last night's loss to the Warriors may have been New Orleans' death knell, as it now trails the 8th-seeded Warriors by four games, and the 10th-seeded San Antonio Spurs by 2.5 games, with just seven to play. Tonight, the Pelicans will get another crack at Golden State in the 2nd of this 2-game series. And New Orleans knows it must win this home game, as it faces an extremely difficult schedule down the stretch. After tonight, the Pels will hit the road for 5 straight games -- all against teams currently qualifying for the Playoffs. And then New Orleans will come back home to face the Lakers to end the regular season. We'll take New Orleans tonight as a small favorite, as they fall into a 64% ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams in the 2nd of a back to back set against the same opponent. Additionally, the Warriors are 30-50 ATS their last 80 games off a SU win. Take New Orleans. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-04-21 | Dodgers -225 v. Cubs | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -225 | 4 h 40 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Chicago Cubs. With Monday's scheduled game postponed, these two clubs will play a double-header today with Clayton Kershaw scheduled to start the first game and new Dodger Trevor Bauer slated to go in the night-cap. That's a double nightmare for most teams as these two have four Cy Young awards between them (though Chicago was able to get to Kershaw in Game 1). RH Bauer had that rare feat in his last start -- an eight inning complete game. It may sound good at first, but despite being the only pitcher to go for his team that day, it means they also lost the game, something Bauer's offense would like to rectify tonight. Under the new rules, each game of a double header will now only be seven innings, so Bauer could easily throw another complete game -- hopefully with a different outcome. Last year as a member of the Reds, Bauer had a 2.08 ERA in two starts vs. Chicago. Take L.A. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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05-04-21 | Penguins -165 v. Flyers | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Penguins over the Philadelphia Flyers. After an impressive two game road sweep of the Capitals over the weekend, the Penguins tied, and then passed the Caps to take over sole possession of first place in the East Division. And with its next series against the lowly Flyers, Pittsburgh figured to maintain that lead. So what happened? The Pens proceeded to get thumped by the Flyers last night in Philadelphia, 7-2, while the Caps man-handled the Rangers -- as they seem to do often these days -- and now the two teams are tied again. Don't forget about Boston either as the red-hot Bruins have won four straight and are only three points back. It's a quick turnaround as the Pens and Flyers meet again 24 hours later with the home team going for the sweep. The Pens specialize in revenge situation as they are 15-3 (+12 games on the money line) in their last 18 revenging a loss vs. an opponent and 13-2 (+11 games on the moneyline) in their last 15 when it's a same season revenge. Take the Pens. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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05-04-21 | Islanders -260 v. Sabres | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -260 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Islanders over the Buffalo Sabres. Last night, the Isles were stunned, 4-2, by Buffalo, as Michael Houser -- a career-minor league goalie -- won his NHL debut. In that game, Houser stopped 34 New York shots, and the Sabres fought back from a 2-0 second period-deficit to garner the victory. That win snapped the Sabres 4-game losing streak. Unfortunately, though, it's 1-10 its last 11 off a win, 11-27 off a win by 2+ goals, and 21-38 (minus 14 games on the moneyline) after scoring more than three goals in its previous game. With the Isles 10-2 in the last 12 meetings, we'll the New York tonight. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-04-21 | Astros +111 v. Yankees | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the New York Yankees. Both of these teams had Monday off with the Yankees winning on Sunday (a 2-0 shutout) while the Stros dropped a tough 5-4 decision. Veteran RHP Zack Greinke will go for the Astros tonight and this is already the 37-year-old's seventh start of the season. Greinke would like to put the last start behind him as it was his shortest of the season (four innings). But even when Greinke doesn't have his best stuff, he still can put his team in a position to win, as evidenced by the fact that Houston is 8-1 in his last nine starts. Greinke's main struggles have come at home this season, as he is 0-1 with a 6.89 ERA in three Houston starts covering just under 16 innings. However, in the same number of starts on the road, Greinke has been killing it, going 2-0 with a 0.86 ERA in 21 innings. The Astros are also 18-8 in Greinke's last 26 starts following a Houston loss. Finally, the Stros also love having a day off as they are 31-9 (+16 games on the moneyline) in their last 40 after a rest day. Take Houston in an underdog role tonight. As always, good luck...Al McMordie
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05-03-21 | Knicks v. Grizzlies -3.5 | Top | 118-104 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 2 m | Show |
At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies minus the points over the New York Knicks. The Knicks won (and covered) again on Sunday, as they blew out the Houston Rockets, 122-97. That was New York's 14th ATS win in its last 15 games played. Tonight, New York will be saddled with playing without rest, while Memphis will be rested following its shocking loss on Saturday at Orlando. Memphis was up by nine points entering the 4th quarter, but fell, 112-111, to the Magic. But off that loss, Memphis falls into an 83% ATS (since 1991) system of mine which has won 14 in a row. Even better: the Grizzlies lost in overtime, 133-129, earlier this year at New York (also blowing a 15-point lead in that game), but are 36-21 ATS, 63%, when playing with revenge from an upset defeat. Meanwhile, the Knicks are 4-14 ATS, 22%, on the road vs. a foe it upset in the previous meeting. And, finally, revenge-minded teams that gave up 125+ points in an upset loss are 102-68 ATS, 60%, when playing an opponent off a SU/ATS win. With Memphis in off a game where they blew a big lead, and playing with revenge against an opponent that also mounted a big comeback win, I fully expect the Grizzlies to be ultra-focused tonight. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-03-21 | Blazers v. Hawks -1 | Top | 114-123 | Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks over the Portland Trail Blazers. Damian Lillard & Co. went into Beantown yesterday, and upended the Celtics at TD Garden, 129-119. That was Portland's 4th straight win (and cover), which sets up our play tonight. The Hawks have been dominant over the years here, in Atlanta, vs. opponents off 4+ wins, as they're 72-46 ATS, including 28-8 ATS vs. unrested foes. And they're also 41-27 ATS at home when rested, and not laying 7+ points vs. unrested Western conference foes. Finally, the Blazers are a wallet-busting 13-30 ATS vs. revenge-minded, winning Eastern conference foes when Portland isn't getting 3+ points. Take the Hawks. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-03-21 | Ducks v. Blues -230 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 59 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Blues over the Anaheim Ducks. The Ducks just finished a four-game set with SoCal rival, Los Angeles, in which the Ducks took two of the last three games. But Los Angeles is in 7th place in the division. Against the division's top five teams, Anaheim is 0-8 its last eight, and 4-20 its last 24. The Blues come in off of a huge three-game series with the Wild in which they prevailed in two of the games. All three games were decided by one goal with the last two needing overtime. There likely won't be as much drama tonight as St. Louis hosts the first of two against the Ducks, a team they've beaten in six of the last eight meetings. But those two Anaheim wins came in the last two meetings back in late March so now, after more than a month, the Blues are looking for some revenge. The Ducks are a hurting team right now, with no fewer than eight of their regulars either on the IR or out of action due to some sort of ailment. Every game is huge for St. Louis which currently sits in fourth place -- a playoff spot -- but only three points ahead of fifth place Arizona with seven games left (the Coyotes have only four to play). The Ducks are 12-27 (-16 games on the moneyline) in their last 39 coming off of a home victory. And they're 0-10 this season if they won at least two of their three previous games. Take the Blues. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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05-02-21 | Knicks v. Rockets +9.5 | Top | 122-97 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets + the points over New York. The Knicks come into this game off a 17-point blowout win over Chicago at Madison Square Garden - their 13th ATS win in 14 games. But this will be a difficult task for New York as it's favored by a huge amount on the road. And it's the biggest number New York has been favored by on the road since March 21, 2014, which is troubling considering the fact that it's 6-18 ATS its last 24 as a road favorite of more than 6 points. We played against Houston last night, and got the $$$ with Miami, in a 26-point blowout. The Rockets will once again play at home tonight, and we'll grab the points with Houston, as I look for them to bounce back today. Indeed, home teams that lost by 15+ points at home the previous day, have cashed 69% since 1990 when matched up against opponents off a SU/ATS home win. Take the Rockets + the points. |
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05-02-21 | Heat -5 v. Hornets | Top | 121-111 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat minus the points over Charlotte. Miami won its second straight game last night, with a 124-107 blowout of Cleveland. It will seek its 3rd straight win and cover tonight, as it travels to Charlotte to play the Hornets. It's true that Charlotte has defeated Miami in each of the first two meetings this season. But double-revenging road favorites (or PK) have cashed 59% in the regular season since 1990 if they were off a SU win. Take Miami. |
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05-02-21 | Kings v. Mavs -7.5 | Top | 111-99 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over Sacramento. These two teams met six days ago, and the Mavs were upset on the road, 113-106, by Sacramento. Dallas hasn't lost since, and it eked out a 1-point win against Washington last night. Today, Dallas will go for its 4th straight win and cover, and has been installed as a big favorite vs. the Kings, who upset the Lakers on Friday. Unfortunately for Sacramento, it's covered just 50 of 122 games off a win, if it was a road underdog against a revenge-minded foe. Take Dallas. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-02-21 | Lightning -1.5 v. Red Wings | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 goals over Detroit. Yesterday, the Red Wings upset Tampa, 1-0, in a shootout. But the final score belied the complete dominance by the Lightning. Tampa outshot Detroit by a 33-15 count, which only tells part of the story. Bad luck befell the Lightning, as they hit four posts, and also had a goal overturned due to goaltender interference. The result was a shutout defeat. But that bodes well for the Lightning this afternoon, as they're 27-4 in their last 31 games after scoring less than two goals. Take Tampa Bay. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-01-21 | Nuggets v. Clippers -4.5 | Top | 110-104 | Loss | -112 | 16 h 34 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over the Denver Nuggets. These two Western conference rivals are battling it out for 3rd place, so this game will go a long way toward determining the teams' playoff seeding. We'll go against Denver off its double-digit victory against Toronto, and take Los Angeles to bounce back off its 109-101 defeat at Phoenix on Wednesday. That was the Clippers' second straight defeat. But each of those losses was on the road; tonight's game is at home. And L.A. is a solid 45-20 ATS off a loss, including 10-1 ATS when favored by 7 or less points against a winning team. Meanwhile, Denver is a horrid 15-38 ATS away from home off a win by 9+ points. Take the Clippers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-01-21 | Golden Knights -200 v. Coyotes | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Vegas Golden Knights over Arizona. Last night, the Coyotes shut out Vegas, 3-0, here in Phoenix. We'll take Vegas in this rematch, as it's 45-25 off a road defeat, including 15-3 if it lost its previous game to a division rival. Moreover, after scoring less than two goals in its previous game, Vegas is 37-18 its last 57, including 10-4 off a shutout defeat. Take the Golden Knights. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-01-21 | Pelicans -3.5 v. Wolves | Top | 140-136 | Win | 100 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans minus the points over Minnesota. These two teams met three weeks ago, and Minnesota thoroughly embarrassed New Orleans, 135-105, as an 8-point underdog. That 30-point loss was the first time in franchise history that New Orleans lost by 30+ points as a favorite of -5 (or more) points. But we'll lay the points with the Pelicans tonight, as favorites have covered 62.6% since 1990 when playing with revenge from a 15-point (or worse) upset loss as an 8-point (or greater) favorite. Take New Orleans. |
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