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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-29-20 | Astros +159 v. Twins | Top | 4-1 | Win | 159 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
At 2 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Minnesota Twins. There's no doubt which team, and which pitcher has had the better 2020 season. And that's Minnesota and Kenta Maeda. But Houston should not be discounted. Yet, that's exactly what the bettors are doing. As of this writing, the price is up 20 cents from the opening odds, and 67% of the bets are going on Minnesota. It's hard for me to pass up Houston and Greinke at this price. After all, Houston's 29-6 (+18 games on the moneyline) when playing with rest. And Greinke's 8-5 as an underdog of +150 or less. And, of course, Minnesota's lost an MLB-record 16 straight playoff games since 2004. So, yes, it's true that Maeda's Twins were 8-3 in his 11 starts this season, and he led the league with a 0.75 WHIP. But it's also true that, in his only start vs. Houston in his career, he was bombed for 5 runs in 5 1-3 innings (a 14-0 Astros win). Take the underdog Astros. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-28-20 | Lightning -165 v. Stars | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 16 h 54 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the Dallas Stars. Game 5 of this Stanley Cup Finals was one for the ages. With their backs against the wall, the Stars somehow managed to survive yet again despite being out-shot and out-played by the Lightning. And once they were able to get the game into overtime, they seemed to be energized to a different level. Dallas prevailed 9:23 into the second overtime period on the second goal of the game by Corey Perry to stay alive and take this series to a sixth game. Like he has done much of these Playoffs, the Stars' goalie Anton Khodobin kept them in the game and you have to wonder if he has it in him to do it again. While this is a 3-2 series, the games really haven't been that close. The Bolts have out-shot the Stars in all five of the games, and they hold a cumulative advantage in that category of 175 to 135. Tampa is 64-25 (+25 games on the moneyline) in its last 56 immediately following a loss. Look for the Lightning to wrap up their second Stanley Cup Championship tonight. Take the Bolts. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-27-20 | Lions +6 v. Cardinals | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over Arizona. The Lions are 0-2 (so, what else is new?) to start the year -- the 7th time in 15 seasons they've started 0-2. But they've been able to move the ball, as they've scored 21+ points in both games (vs. Chicago and Green Bay). And 0-2 SU/ATS teams have cashed 60% in Week 3 vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins. Even better: Detroit is 37-11 ATS on the road off a loss by more than 12 points, while Arizona is 8-18 ATS at home vs. foes with a W/L percentage less than .140. Finally, since 1980, road teams off back to back SU/ATS division losses have cashed 60% vs. non-division foes off back to back SU/ATS wins. Take Detroit. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-27-20 | Raiders v. Patriots -6.5 | Top | 20-36 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over the Las Vegas Raiders. Last week, the Patriots went into a difficult Seattle venue, and lost to the Seahawks, 35-30, as a road underdog. Meanwhile, the Raiders christened their new Allegiant Stadium with a 34-24 comeback win over New Orleans. Unfortunately for the Raiders, they will have to face an ornery Patriots team which will not want to fall to 1-2. And New England is an awesome 10-0 SU and ATS off a straight-up loss when playing an .833 (or better) opponent off a win. Finally, NFL road underdogs off back to back wins, in which they tallied more than 30 points, have cashed just 31.4% since 1980 vs. foes off a SU/ATS loss. Take the Patriots. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-27-20 | Rams v. Bills -1 | Top | 32-35 | Win | 100 | 1 h 19 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills over the Los Angeles Rams. This line opened at -3, and has come way down -- to the point where I want to now step in and take the home team. I had no interest in laying 3 points, but the value now squarely rests on the Bills. Indeed, Buffalo falls into a great system of mine which is 74-33 ATS since 1981 which plays on certain winning teams not laying more than 1 points. Yes, Buffalo failed to cover the spread last week in its win over the Dolphins. But it still won, and is 2-0 on the season. And the Bills also are 50-22 ATS at home off a point spread loss, if they're playing a foe off a SU win. Meanwhile, the Rams are 2-0, following their upset win last week vs. Philly. Unfortunately, winning teams are a soft 256-332 ATS on the road off upset wins, provided they weren't laying more than six points. Take the Bills at home. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-26-20 | Troy v. BYU -14 | Top | 7-48 | Win | 100 | 17 h 52 m | Show |
At 10:15 pm, our selection is on the BYU Cougars minus the points over Troy. Both of these teams come into tonight's affair off blowout wins on the road. The Trojans trounced Middle Tennessee St. in Murfreesboro, 47-14, while the Cougars annihilated Navy, 55-3, in Annapolis. One difference, though, between the teams. BYU has had the last 19 days off, while Troy played last Saturday. We'll lay the points with the Cougars, as rested NCAA home favorites, of less than 40 points, are 128-76 ATS in non-conference home games, if they own a win percentage greater than .750. Take the Cougars. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-26-20 | Stars v. Lightning -155 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -155 | 15 h 51 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the Dallas Stars. We cashed again last night on Tampa Bay (we've now played on the Lightning in each of their last 20 games), and won't get off them tonight, given that they might hoist Lord Stanley's Cup. Indeed, I released the Lightning as my NHL futures pick a year ago, prior to the season, at 7-1 odds, and it was one of my two favorite futures bets in the past 20 years (along with Virginia (2019) in NCAA basketball, at 22-1 odds). Game 5 of the 2020 Stanley Cup Finals will have an interesting wrinkle, as it will be played with no rest after a grueling, overtime Game 4 that went late into Friday night. When the smoke cleared, it was the Bolts who emerged with a 5-4 victory and a 3-1 series lead, needing just one more to clinch their second-ever Stanley Cup. Last night's defeat was painful for the Stars, who had three separate leads in the game (1-0, 2-0, and 3-2) but simply couldn't put the incredibly pesky Bolts away. And the penalty which set up Tampa's game-winning goal was questionable, too. It's not known as of this writing whether the Lightning will rest goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy to go with back-up Curtis McElhinney, but we're not going to let that possibility interfere with our selection as the Bolts have consistently shown that they can win without key players on the ice this entire post-season. This will be the second back-to-back game for Tampa in these playoffs, and it won the first one 7-1 over Boston. During the regular season, Tampa was 8-3 in 11 games with no off-day. Take the Lightning. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-26-20 | Florida State +11.5 v. Miami-FL | Top | 10-52 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles + the points over Miami-Fla. Miami defeated Louisville, 47-34, last Saturday. But it gave up over 500 yards to Louisville, which outgained Miami, 506 to 485. The Hurricanes, though, benefited from three Louisvlle turnovers, and that was the Cardinals' undoing. Meanwhile, the Seminoles had last week off to lick their wounds following a season-opening loss to Georgia Tech on Sept. 12. There's no doubt that Florida State will be enormously motivated to bounce back today, especially given that it's playing with revenge from a 17-point defeat to these Hurricanes last season. We'll grab the double-digit with Florida State, as rested, revenge-minded teams, off a season-opening loss, have cashed 66% since 1980 vs. unrested foes. Even better: the underdog in this rivalry has gone 26-12-1 ATS over the last 40 years. Take Florida State + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-26-20 | Cubs v. White Sox -150 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Chicago Cubs. By now, most baseball followers know that the Nationals traded their #1 pitching prospect, RH Lucas Giolito, to the White Sox for OF Adam Eaton. But what they may not know is that the Nats included another talented righthander in that deal. That pitcher was former (2016) first round draft pick Dane Dunning. The 25-year-old is making his MLB debut this season for the Sox and it has to be at least a little bit painful for the Nats to not only see Giolito doing so well, but also now Dunning developing nicely for Chicago. The former Florida Gator will get his seventh start tonight and it will be first vs. the Sox cross-town rivals. Dunning has done by far his best work in his new home ballpark, going 1-0 with a 2.20 ERA in three starts covering 16 1/3 innings here at Guaranteed Rate Field (vs. 1-0 and 4.30 on the road). The Cubs will go with LHP Jon Lester and the White Sox are an incredible 13-0 in their last 13 games vs. southpaw starters. Take the Sox. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-26-20 | Astros -194 v. Rangers | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -194 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Texas Rangers. The Astros will turn to Lance McCullers tonight, and he's been spectacular over his last two starts. McCullers faced this Rangers team on Sept. 16, and threw seven scoreless innings (2 hits, 0 BB, 8 K), and he followed that up with 6 2-3 innings of shutout baseball at Seattle. He'll match up against veteran RHP Kyle Gibson tonight, and Gibson has a horrid 5.87 ERA in 11 starts (7.18 ERA at home). In his last outing, Gibson was bombed for 7 earned runs in 4 innings at the Angels. Houston is 101-44 (+21 games on the moneyline) as a favorite of -125 (or more) on the road, while Texas is a wallet-busting 43-79 (-8 games on the moneyline) as a home dog, priced from +150 to +200. Take Houston. |
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09-26-20 | Marlins v. Yankees -185 | Top | 4-11 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Miami Marlins. The Yankees are no strangers to finding a kid somewhere down south and signing him as a 16-year-old before anyone else can grab him. A case in point is now-21-year-old Deivi Garcia. The Yanks signed Garcia out of the Dominican Republic five years ago and this season the RHP is making his debut in pinstripes. For the most part, it's been a successful coming-out party as Garcia is 2-2 in five starts so far. The 4.88 ERA may seem a bit high, but Garcia also has a K:BB ratio above 5:1 as he has punched out 26 hitters and walked just 5 in 27 1/3 innings of work. Garcia had back-to-back strong seven-inning outings against a very good Blue Jays lineup but then threw in a bit of a clunker against the Red Sox in his last. But that was Garcia's first start at Fenway Park, and Fenway can be difficult for pitchers who have never thrown there. The Marlins just punched their post-season ticket with their win over this Yankee club yesterday, so a letdown could be in order this afternoon. Take the Yanks. |
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09-25-20 | Lightning -152 v. Stars | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the Dallas Stars. As if the Lightning's fortunes couldn't get any better, they got captain Steven Stamkos back on the ice for the first time in seven months and as if that wasn't enough, Stamkos scored on his first shot of the game. But it would also be his only shot as Stamkos didn't play in the final seven minutes of the first period and then didn't play the rest of the game, having apparently re-aggravated his injury. But it didn't matter much as the rest of the Bolts players stepped up in his absence and Tampa cruised to a 5-2 victory to take a 2-1 series lead heading into tonight's crucial Game 4. It was Tampa's most complete game of the series as the Bolts out-shot the Stars by 32-24 and out-played them on both ends of the ice, knocking Dallas goalie Anton Khudobin out after two periods. It's unclear whether Stamkos will suit up tonight, but the truth is that it may not matter if the Bolts continue to play like they have. Tampa is 46-21 in its last 67 after a win by more than two goals, while Dallas is 8-12 this season off back to back losses. Take the Bolts. As always good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-25-20 | Padres -148 v. Giants | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -148 | 5 h 42 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, in Game 1 of the double-header, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over San Francisco. The Padres will hand the ball to RHP Dinelson Lamet tonight, while the Giants will start southpaw Tyler Anderson (3-3, 4.53 ERA). Lamet's been consistently brilliant this season. He's made 11 starts, and has a 2.07 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. And, most importantly, the Padres win when he starts, as they've won his last six outings, and nine of his 11 this season. In those 11 starts, he's given up 1 earned run or less in eight of them, while he gave up 2 runs once, and 3 runs twice. He's in great form, as he has had 32 strikeouts against just four walks and 11 hits in his last three games (20 2/3 innings), for an 0.87 ERA, 0.72 WHIP and 8:1 K/BB ratio. And his numbers have been solid against the Giants, as he has a career 2.70 ERA vs. SF. Meanwhile, Tyler Anderson's teams have won just 12 of his 39 starts vs. division rivals. Take San Diego. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-24-20 | A's v. Dodgers -200 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Oakland Athletics. The future of the NL West may someday belong to the San Diego Padres, but for now it's the Dodgers who reign supreme. Los Angeles has clinched its eighth straight Division Crown and it will also finish with the League's best record in this shortened season. But nobody knows better than the Dodgers that those eight pennants have resulted in zero World Series rings and it's now been more than 30 years since they have won it all. If they're going to do it this year, they're going to need to stay as healthy as possible. That's been problematic for young RH ace Walker Buehler. But the good news is that it's been a blister problem that has sidelined the 26-year-old and those are normally very manageable. Buehler gets his first start since September 8 tonight and no doubt he will be carefully watched. He's been a beast in inter-league games, going 3-0 with a 2.74 ERA in eight starts covering just under 43 innings vs. teams from the American League. Take L.A. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-24-20 | Lakers -6 v. Nuggets | Top | 114-108 | Push | 0 | 15 h 20 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over Denver. The Nuggets got back into the series with a blowout win over Los Angeles on Tuesday. We stayed away from that Game, but will jump back into the fray tonight, and play on the Los Angeles Lakers. Since 1990, #3-seeded NBA teams are a poor 37-57-3 ATS after upsetting their opponent in the previous playoff game. Even better: LeBron James teams are a jaw-dropping 21-0 straight-up, and 17-4 ATS as a favorite in the Playoffs vs. foes off back to back ATS wins. Lay the points with the Lakers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-24-20 | Astros -125 v. Rangers | Top | 12-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Texas Rangers. Houston's magic number to clinch a playoff spot is down to 2. So, if the Astros win tonight, and the Angels lose, Houston would qualify for the playoffs. We'll play on Houston, which is now 100-43 (+22 games on the moneyline) as a road favorite of -125 (or more). Meanwhile, Texas is 14-31 (minus 10 games on the moneyline) as an underdog. Take the Astros. |
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09-24-20 | White Sox +113 v. Indians | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Cleveland Indians. With a long-sought post-season spot now secured, it seems that the White Sox are going to be cautious with some of their veteran starters. And none more-so than the southpaw leader of the rotation, Dallas Keuchel. The former Astros-Braves veteran appears to be on some type of a pitch count, having not allowed a run in his last three starts, but also only having thrown a total of 14 innings in those (5 IP, 5 IP and 4IP in his last one). That last start was a gem as he held the Reds scoreless while the Sox beat them and ace Trevor Bauer 4-0 in what would be a no-decision for Keuchel. This shows how confident the Sox are in their bullpen right now and rightly so. Chicago relievers are 16-8 with a 3.69 ERA on the season so far. The Indians batting order has struggled mightily against LHP this season, hitting just .227 against them (fourth-worst in the AL). Chicago is 19-8 in its last 27 games vs. teams from the AL Central. Take the White Sox. |
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09-24-20 | Cubs -180 v. Pirates | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -180 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
At 1:35 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Pittsburgh Pirates. Cubs RHP Alec Mills gets his second start since tossing his first career no-hitter on September 13. Not surprisingly, Mills' first start since the no-no was a bit of a let-down as the Cubs were soundly beaten 8-1 (and we cashed our highest-rated play of the season in that game on the Twins). But that outing last Saturday was against one of the best offenses in the league, and Mills really didn't pitch that badly (4 ER in 6 IP with 7 Ks and 1 BB). He gets a significant break tonight by facing the Pirates. Just how bad is the Bucs' hitting this season? They are batting a paltry .214 (somehow not the worst in the league -- CIN @ .211) and their OPS is an MLB-worst .619 which is almost 20 points below the next team. Somehow, Mills lost to this team back on September 3, but that means this afternoon is a revenge situation as well.  Pittsburgh will go with RH Chad Kuhl and to say that the Cubs are a problem for him is an understatement. In 11 previous games (10 starts) vs. the Cubs, Kuhl is 1-6 with a 6.75 ERA. Take Chicago. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-23-20 | A's +151 v. Dodgers | Top | 6-4 | Win | 151 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Los Angeles Dodgers. Sean Manaea's much-anticipated season got off to a rocky start as the 28-year-old RHP went 0-2 with a 7.65 ERA through his first five starts. But after that point, Manaea got hot and reeled of four straight wins, allowing just one run in each and lowering his ERA more then three runs to 4.46. Manaea's string got snapped in his last start on September 15, but that was at Coors Field so we'll give the Oakland ace a mulligan on that one and look for him to start a new streak tonight in Los Angeles. Unlike Coors, Dodger Stadium is a good place for Manaea to get back on track as his only other start here was a good one (5 IP; 2 R; 5 K; 1 BB).  The A's are on a high right now, having just clinched their first Division Title since 2013. The Dodgers will go with LHP Julio Urias and that may not be the best thing against this A's team. Oakland has been feasting on southpaw pitching lately, going 9-2 (+6 games on the moneyline) in its last 11 games vs. LHs. Take the A's. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-23-20 | Lightning -150 v. Stars | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the Dallas Stars. After getting pushed around pretty bad in Game 1, the Tampa Bay Lightning made some adjustments before Game 2. Those adjustments paid off as Tampa built a 3-0 in the first period and was able to hold on for a 3-2 victory that evened this series at a game apiece. Tampa achieved two important things in the process of winning Game 2. First, unlike Game 1, the Bolts didn't let the Stars dictate the game with their physical play. And it seemed like every time one of Dallas' physical players -- and there are quite a few of them -- hit someone, they got hit back. Second, the Lightning were able to get to Stars' goalie Anton Khudobin early and often in building that 3-0 lead, and that could turn out to be the key to this series. It also won't hurt that Dallas suffered a key injury on Monday night, with Blake Comeau leaving the game in the 2nd period. The Stars generally have not responded well to close losses. In their last 52 games following a defeat by one goal, the Stars are 25-27 (-7 games on the moneyline). Take the Lightning. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-23-20 | Brewers v. Reds -150 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Reds over the Milwaukee Brewers. These two NL Central clubs are locked into a tight race with the Giants and Phillies for the final two Wild Card berths in the National League. Tonight's match-up favors the home team, as Trevor Bauer has a spectacular 1.80 ERA in 10 starts this season, while Adrian Houser's ERA in his 10 starts is north of 5 runs per game (5.33). Bauer faced the Brewers twice this season, and pitched well, with a 3.65 ERA over 12 1-3 innings, and 20 strikeouts, against just 13 baserunners (1.05 WHIP). In contrast, Houser's ERA vs. the Reds is 6.23, with a WHIP of 1.53. In his lone start vs. Cincy this season, he was bombed (4 runs, 4 IP, 10 baserunners). Take the Reds. |
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09-23-20 | White Sox +142 v. Indians | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Cleveland Indians. When White Sox RHP Lucas Giolito threw his first career no-hitter on August 25 against the Pirates, he saw his ERA for the season drop from 3.89 to 3.09. But that seemed to be the high point (or should we say low point) as in Giolito's four subsequent starts, his ERA has risen back to 3.53. But the good news is that although he hasn't come close to duplicating that August 25 accomplishment, Giolito has leading his team to victory. In fact, the White Sox are 3-1 in those four starts and it's safe to say that his team wouldn't have clinched its first post-season appearance since 2008 if not for the work that Giolito has contributed. Now a start opposite Shane Bieber is not easy to say the least, but the Cleveland ace hasn't been at his best recently, allowing six earned runs in his last two starts with one of them resulting in his first loss of the season. Giolito's teams are 18-9 (+18 games on the moneyline) in his last 27 starts as a road underdog. Take the White Sox. |
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09-22-20 | Phillies -189 v. Nationals | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -189 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
At 3:05 pm, in Game 1 of the doubleheader, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Washington Nationals. It's been a yo-yo type of season for Phillies RH ace Aaron Nola. Two starts ago on September 11, Nola had his best outing of the season, tossing seven scoreless innings, allowing three hits with 10 strikeouts and no walks in an 11-0 rout of the Marlins. But the 27-year-old followed that up last time out with a clunker against the Mets, allowing five runs in 5 1/3 innings. And that's the type of campaign it's been for Nola so far -- a good start/bad start pattern for the most part. That bodes well for this afternoon affair against the Nats in Game 1 of a DH. What also bodes well for him is his winning record and 3.56 ERA in 10 starts covering just under 56 innings here in DC. Last night's loss here ended what had been a six-game winning streak for the Phillies over the Nats -- all this season. The Nats will go with RHP Austin Voth (7.17 ERA; 1.67 WHIP) and they are 5-14 (-13 games on the moneyline) in his 19 starts. Even worse: they're 10-27 against righty starters (-22 games on the moneyline) this season. Take Philly. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-21-20 | Saints v. Raiders +6 | Top | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 14 h 4 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Las Vegas Raiders + the points over New Orleans. Last seasons, the Saints won 13 games. But NFL teams that won 13+ games the previous season have covered just 43 of 108 road openers when installed as a favorite. Last Sunday, the Raiders went into Charlotte, and defeated the Carolina Panthers, 34-30. Off that win, we'll play on Las Vegas in its home opener tonight. Since 1980, winning teams, off a SU/ATS win, have cashed 65.3% at home on Monday Nights. Even better: the Saints are 3-10 their last 13 road openers, and they're an awful 0-7 ATS their last seven road openers when favored by 3 or more points. Take Las Vegas + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-21-20 | Stars v. Lightning -147 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the Dallas Stars. When the Lightning looked across the ice Saturday night, it probably seemed like looking into a mirror. If the Stars showed favored Tampa one thing in Game 1, it's that the Bolts will be facing a very different type of team than they saw in the last round. While the Isles tried to beat Tampa with tight checking and defense, the Stars will be using a much more open-ice, offensive style of hockey. And in Game 1 at least, they gave the Bolts a taste of their own medicine, so to speak, and came away with a 4-1 victory. The good news for Tampa is that the only real difference-maker for Dallas was goalie Anton Khudobin who had to be at his very best once again (35 saves). And while the Stars held a shot advantage through the first two periods, Tampa totally dominated in the last 20 minutes, and out-shot Dallas by a whopping 22-2 -- but just couldn't break Khudobin. Tampa is 40-12 (+23 games on the moneyline) in their last 52 following a loss by two or more goals, and 10-1 this season after not scoring two goals in their previous game. Take the Bolts. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-21-20 | Cubs -160 v. Pirates | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Pittsburgh Pirates. Nobody can argue that Cubs' LH Jon Lester is now in the twilight of his career. But having said that, crafty southpaws have a way of hanging around in the Majors if they can prove to still be useful out on the mound every five days (or in relief if necessary). And despite some numbers that are tailing off, Lester has shown that he can definitely be a useful starter. Like in his last start last Wednesday when the 36-year-old held a strong Indians offense in check long enough (five innings in this case) for his team to get the win. Tonight, the Cubs will face a much weaker opponent, as the Bucs have won just once in their last 13 games. In his career, Lester is 12-6 with a 3.30 ERA in 25 starts vs. the Bucs, including a 6-3 record (in 12 starts) here in Pittsburgh. The Cubs are 5-1 in the last six meetings and they are also 14-5 (+10 games on the moneyline) in Lester's last 19 starts after he allowed no more than two ER in his two previous games. Take Chicago. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-21-20 | Phillies -150 v. Nationals | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -150 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Washington Nationals. The free agent pool for starting pitchers wasn't all that deep at the end of last season and with Gerrit Cole out of reach, the Phillies decided to gamble on former Mets' RHP Zack Wheeler. Gamble is the right word too because $120 Million is quite a bit for a guy with a record barely over .500 and ERA around four runs, especially when he's already 30-years-old. But right now the Phils are looking pretty smart with their decision to lock up the former first round pick (Giants). In nine starts, Wheeler is 4-0 with a 2.62 ERA and 1.08 WHIP 58 1/3 innings. It certainly looks as if the Phillies are getting their money's worth so far. After back-to-back starts against his former team, Wheeler will get his second start of the season against the Nats. The first one was near flawless as Wheeler tossed 6 2/3 scoreless innings, allowing just three hits in a 3-0 Phils victory. The Nats are 9-26 (-22 games on the moneyline) in their last 35 games vs. RH starters. Take Philly. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-20-20 | Nuggets +7.5 v. Lakers | Top | 103-105 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets + the points over Los Angeles. We played on the Lakers in Game 1, and were rewarded with a 126-114 victory, as a 7-point favorite. We'll switch gears tonight, and grab the points, as .600 (or better) underdogs, at the quarterfinal round forward, have cashed 60% in Game 2 of an NBA series off a SU loss in Game 1. Additionally, the Nuggets are a terrific 36-13-1 ATS when not favored by 3+ points, if they lost by more than five points in their previous game, including 12-1 ATS vs. foes off back to back wins. Take the Nuggets + the points in Game 2. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-20-20 | Twins v. Cubs -147 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -147 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Minnesota Twins. When veteran Yu Darvish signed a six-year, $126 Million contract with the Cubs before the 2018 season, many were skeptical. And then when Darvish got injured and proceeded to go 1-3 with a 4.95 ERA in just eight starts, the skeptics appeared correct. But now that contract is looking like a bargain. Darvish's 2019 may seem somewhat ordinary (6-8 with a 3.98 ERA in 31 starts), but when you look at the second half of last season (4 wins with a 2.76 ERA and 0.81 WHIP) and then what he's done so far in 2020, all of sudden you're talking Cy Young-type stuff. In his first 10 starts this season, the RH is 7-2 with a 1.86 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. He looks to continue his dominance tonight against the Twins and an inter-league start just might do that. In 21 starts vs. the opposite League, Darvish is 10-3 with a 3.06 ERA and he has a 1.77 ERA in three starts vs. Minnesota. The Cubs are 6-1 (+5 games on the moneyline) in Darvish's last seven night games. Take Chicago. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-20-20 | Ravens v. Texans +9 | Top | 33-16 | Loss | -130 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over the Baltimore Ravens. Last year, the Ravens demolished Houston 41-7, as a 3.5-point favorite, which was Houston's worst loss in its franchise history when it had a winning record at the time of the game. So, Houston's going to be out for revenge, here at home, on this Sunday afternoon. We'll grab the points with the Texans, as they fall into a 62.7% ATS revenge system of mine which plays on certain revenge-minded teams that had a winning record the previous season. Additionally, since 1980, home dogs of +6 or more points have cashed 67% if they were off a 14-point (or worse) defeat in Week 1, and their opponent was off a 14-point (or greater) victory. Take Houston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-20-20 | Chiefs v. Chargers +10 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers + the points over Kansas City. We played on the Chiefs in their home opener last week, and they rewarded us with a 34-20 victory over Houston. And that extended the record of defending Super Bowl champs to 14-4-2 ATS in season openers since 2001. Unfortunately, defending champs are a horrid 3-13 ATS in Week 2 as a road favorite after winning their season opener, including 0-6 ATS vs. foes off a straight-up win. And .501 (or better) home underdogs have cashed 64.1% over the past 41 years when playing with revenge vs. an opponent off a SU/ATS win. This is a perfect letdown spot for the Chiefs, and especially because Kansas City also has a Monday Night game next week vs. the Baltimore Ravens, their closest competitor for AFC Conference supremacy. Take the Chargers + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-20-20 | Washington Football Team v. Cardinals -7 | Top | 15-30 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals minus the points over Washington. Both of these teams pulled off upsets in Week 1. The Cards took down a very good 49ers team, 24-20, while Washington defeated Philly, 27-17 (after initially falling behind, 17-0). It's exceptionally hard to pull off back to back upsets to start the NFL season. Indeed, underdogs of more than 5 points in Week 2, that won outright as an underdog of more than 5 points in Week 1, have gone 1-28 straight-up, and 10-18-1 ATS. That doesn't bode well for Washington on Sunday. Nor does the fact that, since 1980, NFL teams that won 25% (or less) of their games the previous season have gone 0-17 SU and 4-13 ATS as an underdog of 4+ points off an upset win in Week 1. We'll lay the points with Arizona, as I look for the Cardinals to rout Washington. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-20-20 | Blue Jays -101 v. Phillies | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 45 m | Show |
At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Philadelphia Phillies. There haven't been many trades during this short season, but one that seemed to make a lot of sense for both teams was when the Mariners sent veteran RHP Taijuan Walker to the Blue Jays for a player to be named later. With the M's not going anywhere this season it was logical for them to move their one-time top pitching prospect who is due to be a free agent at the end of the season. And it makes sense for the contending Jays to have another seasoned arm in their rotation. Walker is only 27, after all, and it seems as though he can make an impact for this young Jays team that has a shot at the playoffs. Walker had a 4.00 ERA in five starts for Seattle, but since coming east he has logged a sparkling 1.56 ERA in four starts covering 17 1/3 innings with the Jays. Walker has a 3.30 ERA in 10 previous inter-league starts and the Phillies have never seen him before. Philadelphia is 8-11 (-6 games on the moneyline) in its last 19 day games. Take Toronto. |
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09-20-20 | Indians -190 v. Tigers | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Detroit Tigers. Carlos Carrasco is having a very nice comeback campaign having posted a 3.27 ERA over 10 starts covering 55 innings. That 3.27 number -- if the season were to end today -- would be the lowest ERA that Carrasco has logged since 2014 and the second-lowest of his MLB career which began 11 years ago. The only number that's been elusive for Carrasco so far is victories as he is just 2-4 heading into this afternoon. A start against the Tigers could help get Carrasco on the winning track. The veteran RH has 11 victories in 30 games (24 starts) covering just under 142 innings vs. Detroit -- the second-most that he has logged against any team (KC - 12). Despite their struggles at time this season and their loss here last night, the Indians are 26-8 in their last 34 road games against teams with losing records and 14-3 (+10 games on the money line) in their last 17 as a road favorite of -125 or more. Detroit is 11-22 in its last 33 vs. Division opponents. Take the Tribe. |
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09-20-20 | Lions +7 v. Packers | Top | 21-42 | Loss | -140 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over Green Bay. The Packers upset the Vikings in Week 1, 43-34, while Detroit fell to Chicago, 27-23. And that loss by Detroit was after it led by 17 points in the 4th quarter. Green Bay is favored by almost a touchdown, but it's not defeated Detroit by 7 or more points in any of the last six meetings (and by more than 7 points in any of the last 10 games). The Lions are 4-2 straight-up in the last six games, and won by an average of 12 points per game. We'll grab the points with Detroit, as NFC North division teams are a fantastic 63-33-4 ATS off a loss when matched up against a division foe off a win, including 25-9 ATS on the road. Even better: the Packers are 1-9 ATS their last 10 off a SU/ATS road win. Take Detroit. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-20-20 | 49ers -7 v. Jets | Top | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points over the New York Jets. Last season, the Niners lost just three games. So, it was a bit of a surprise last week when they were upset at home by the Arizona Cardinals. The good news for San Francisco is that favorites in Week 2, off an upset loss in Week 1, have cashed 63% over the last 40 years, if they had a .750 (or better) W/L record the previous season. Additionally, the Niners are 8-0 ATS as a road favorite of -5 (or more) points off an upset loss as a 3-point (or greater) favorite. Take the Niners. |
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09-20-20 | Falcons +3.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 39-40 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons + the points over Dallas. Both the Falcons and Cowboys suffered Week 1 losses last Sunday. Atlanta was upset, 38-25, at home by Seattle, while Dallas fell by three on the road to the L.A. Rams. We'll grab the points with the Falcons, as road teams have cashed 65.9% over the past 40 years if they were upset in their season opener, and lost by 10+ points. Additionally, the Falcons fall into 48-9 and 57-17 ATS systems of mine that play on certain road teams off blowout losses. Take Atlanta + the points. |
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09-20-20 | Jaguars v. Titans -7.5 | Top | 30-33 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans minus the points over Jacksonville. The Titans have dominated their AFC South division rival in Nashville, as the Titans have won six straight (4-1-1 ATS), with the last two by margins of 22 and 21 points. Since 1999, the Titans are 16-5 SU and 13-7-1 ATS at home vs. Jacksonville. Last Sunday, the Jaguars stunned Indianapolis, 27-20, as a touchdown underdog. We'll look for a letdown today, as NFL road underdogs off an upset win by 7+ points over a division rival, are a soft 83-128-4 ATS. Lay the points with the Titans. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-20-20 | Bills v. Dolphins +6 | Top | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Miami Dolphins + the points over Buffalo. Each of these teams were involved in games with double-digit margins of victory last Sunday. Miami lost by 10 to New England, while Buffalo won by 10 over the NY Jets. The Bills, though, have been a horrible team off a double-digit win over a division rival, as they've covered just 12 of 50 since 1981. Meanwhile, Miami falls into 133-70 and 295-223 ATS systems of mine that play on certain divisional home underdogs vs. unrested winning opponents. Take the Dolphins + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-19-20 | Twins -125 v. Cubs | Top | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 2 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Chicago Cubs. Chicago's Alec Mills threw the second no-hitter of the MLB season in his last start. And while the first one -- by White Sox ace Lucas Giolito -- was not surprising, Mills' accomplishment came out of left field (pun intended). Mills was a 22nd round pick of the Royals back in 2012 who, in his last two seasons at AAA Iowa had amassed a record of 11-16 with an ERA around five runs. And prior to last Sunday's no-no vs. the Brewers, Mills was 4-3 with a 4.74 ERA in 43 2/3 innings for the Cubbies. The Twins will go with veteran RHP Michael Pineda tonight. After missing all of 2018, Pineda had a very strong come-back season in 2019, going 11-5 with a 4.00 ERA and so far he's building on that in 2020. In three starts, the 31-year-old is 1-0 with a 3.57 ERA and an outstanding 20 strikeouts vs. just four walks in 17 2/3 innings. In 18 career inter-league starts, Pineda is 8-4 with a 2.91 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in just over 105 innings (vs. his overall career ERA of 4.03). The Twins are 8-1 behind Pineda when priced as a favorite of -150 or less, while the Cubs are a poor 28-41 (minus nine games on the moneyline) when priced as an underdog of +150 or less. Take Minnesota. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-19-20 | Stars v. Lightning -145 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -145 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the Dallas Stars. It's been five days since the Dallas Stars wrapped up their series with the Golden Knights to reach their second Stanley Cup Finals ever (and first in 20 years). But the Lightning are fresh off of their six-game series win over a gutsy Islanders team, and if they don't miss a beat on the ice it could be bad news for Dallas. I don't expect Tampa to suffer in any way, as it's 61-23 (+23 games on the moneyline) when playing its 4th game in seven days. And, despite the number of close results on the scoreboard in Tampa's Eastern Conference Finals series, most of the games weren't really that competitive. The only thing that kept New York in Thursday's game (and some of the others) was the amazing play of goalie Semyon Varlamov who spent most of his time looking like he was facing a firing squad. If the Stars are even the least bit flat coming into tonight, it could be a long evening for them. The Bolts are 32-9 their last 41 after allowing one goal (or less) in their previous game. Take Tampa. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-19-20 | Central Florida -7.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 49-21 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Central Florida Knights minus the points over Georgia Tech. Not much was expected of the Yellow Jackets this season, as they were picked to finish last in the ACC preseason poll. But Georgia Tech stunned Florida State in Tallahassee last week, as a 13-point underdog. Unfortunately for the Yellow Jackets, teams off an upset conference road win to start the season generally have letdowns their next game, as they've covered just 35% over the past 41 years. The Knights are 19-6-1 ATS their last 26 when priced from -5.5 to -21.5 points. Lay it. |
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09-19-20 | Appalachian State v. Marshall +5.5 | Top | 7-17 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Marshall Thundering Herd + the points over Appalachian State. Both Marshall and App State opened their 2020 campaigns with solid wins. Marshall blew out Eastern Kentucky, 59-0, while the Mountaineers took care of Charlotte, 35-20. We'll fade Appalachian State, as Sun Belt Conference favorites, with a .500 or better record, are an awful 0-12 ATS their last 12 (and 1-17 ATS their last 18) as favorites vs. non-conference foes off a straight-up win. Take Marshall. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-19-20 | Navy +7 v. Tulane | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on Navy + the points over Tulane. The Midshipmen were blown out at home in their first game of the season, 55-3, by BYU, as a 1.5-point underdog. Meanwhile, Tulane went into South Alabama, and defeated the Jaguars by three points, 27-24. The fact that Navy lost to BYU should not have come as a surprise, as the Midshipmen are 8-16 their last 24 home openers. But Navy's gone 12-5-1 ATS its last 18 road openers, and it's 119-65 ATS its last 184 away from Annapolis, including 33-8 ATS off a home defeat. Take Navy to rebound this afternoon. Grab the points. |
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09-18-20 | Padres -170 v. Mariners | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Seattle Mariners. Despite everything that's going on right now, it's a good time to be a member of the Padres (or a fan). San Diego's young baseball team is looking like the 2nd best club in the National League right now and what seemed like an impossible feat only a few weeks ago -- catching the Dodgers -- is now within grasp. While L.A. has to go into Denver (always dicey) this weekend, the Padres get three games vs. Seattle. Also, San Diego will be designated as the "road" team in this series, but each game will be played in San Diego, as Seattle's air quality was deemed unsafe, due to the fires, so the games were moved away from Seattle. Starting things out on the mound will be RHP Chris Paddack. Paddack was looking like a sure-fire ace heading into this season after a 2019 in which he won nine games with a 3.33 ERA, but he's struggled a bit so far. But while his ERA is high at 4.74 (in 10 starts), Paddack's walk rate has actually improved (to a low 1.6 free passes per nine innings) and his K:BB ratio has increased as a result (5.78). A start vs. Seattle should be just what Paddack needs. The Pads are 7-3 in the last 10 meetings. Take San Diego. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-18-20 | Nuggets v. Lakers -7 | Top | 114-126 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over Denver.  The Nuggets come into this game off back to back upset wins to defeat the Clippers in seven games. Unfortunately for Denver, NBA teams off back to back upset wins have only cashed the opening game of a series eight of 29 games since 1991. That doesn't bode well for Denver. Nor does the fact that LeBron James' teams have gone 50-27 ATS in his career when they were favored by 2+ points, provided they were not leading in the series. Finally, teams off back to back playoff wins have only covered 24 of 63 games if they were an underdog away from home, and they were off back to back covers by 10+ points. Take Los Angeles minus the points in Game 1. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-17-20 | Bengals v. Browns -6 | Top | 30-35 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns minus the points over Cincinnati. The Browns were roasted, 38-6, in Week 1 by the Baltimore Ravens. But I love Cleveland to rebound on this Thursday night vs. its AFC North division rival, Cincinnati. The last thing any NFL teams wants to do to start a season is go 0-2, and especially if each of its first two games are division contests. Indeed, over the last 30 years, favorites have cashed 70.3% in division games in Week 2, if they lost to another division foe in Week 1, including 8-0 SU and 7-0-1 ATS the last eight. That bodes well for Cleveland tonight. As does the fact that NFL teams that failed to cover the spread by 23+ points in Week 1, have rebounded to go 21-7 ATS in Week 2 vs. an opponent also off a loss, if our team was not getting 10+ points. Take Cleveland minus the points. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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09-17-20 | Lightning -160 v. Islanders | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the New York Islanders. With the 2-1 defeat on Tuesday night that went into the 92nd minute of play, the Lightning have now played five overtime games since the playoffs began. Tuesday's was the first one in which they came up on the short end. In their last two OT contests (Boston on August 25 and 31), the Bolts came back in the next game to win easily (7-1 against the Bruins and 8-2 in Game 1 of this series). Tampa will be looking to make it three in a row and, by doing so, it will punch its ticket to its first Stanley Cup Finals in five years to take on the Dallas Stars. Once again in Game 5 the Bolts out-shot their opponents like they have in every game of this series, save one (Game 2) , and they appeared to dominate play throughout most of the OT affair. It was the first time the Lightning had been held to a single goal since Game 2 of the Columbus series. But the good news for tonight is that they are 43-8 in their last 51 after scoring two goals or less in their previous game. Take Tampa. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-17-20 | Heat v. Celtics -2.5 | Top | 106-101 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Miami. The Celtics lost Game 1 in overtime, 117-114, and now trail the Miami Heat 1-0 in the series. We'll lay the points with Boston as it's 23-13 ATS when it trails by exactly one game in a Playoff series, including 16-5 ATS away from home. Even better: Boston is 50-30 ATS its last 80 vs. the Heat, including 26-9 ATS when the line was between +4.5 and -4.5 points. And, finally, teams off a SU/ATS win to open a series have cashed just 36% over the last 31 years if they scored more than 115 points in their Game 1 victory. Take Boston minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-17-20 | Indians -272 v. Tigers | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Detroit Tigers. In his last start, Indians' RHP Shane Bieber did something he doesn't do very often. The leading candidate for the AL Cy Young took his first loss of the season in his 10th start and so he is now 7-1 on the season. But in true Bieber style, the 25-year-old still had a quality start, tossing seven innings of five-hit, three-run ball against a very good Twins lineup. He gets rewarded tonight by getting his second start of the season against the Tigers. Overall Bieber is 4-1 with a 1.82 ERA and 0.78 WHIP in five career starts vs. Detroit so the Cleveland ace stands a good chance of redeeming himself tonight in Detroit. If those numbers seem dominant, check out his career stats here at Comerica Park: 3-0 with a 0.83 ERA and 0.60 WHIP in three starts covering 21 2/3 innings. If there's anything that can get Cleveland out of its current funk, it's a series against Detroit. The Tribe is 42-9 in the last 51 meetings overall and 22-5 in the last 27 in the Motor City. Take Cleveland.Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-16-20 | Indians -119 v. Cubs | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -119 | 16 h 19 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Chicago Cubs. There was a time not that long ago when Jon Lester was one of the top half-dozen southpaw starters in the League. It appears that those days are behind him as Lester is struggling for the second consecutive year. Lester did turn things around a bit in his last start, throwing six shutout innings against a very good Brewers line-up, allowing just three hits with eight punch-outs and two walks. But his offense did nothing and the Cubs lost 1-0. For the season, Lester has an ERA north of five runs. And at home, the ERA balloons to 9.00, with a 1.63 WHIP in four Wrigley Field starts. Aaron Civale will get the start for the Tribe, and he has a 3.88 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in nine starts, including 3.43/1.09 in interleague games. Cleveland is a super 12-5 this season as a road favorite, and 25-14 their last 39 vs. NL Central division foes. Take the Indians. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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09-15-20 | Nuggets v. Clippers -7.5 | Top | 104-89 | Loss | -102 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over Denver. The Clippers surely did not expect this quarterfinals series to last this long. But here we are, and the Clippers now have their backs against the wall. I expect them to react well to the pressure, and to take care of business tonight. It's true that Denver showed its mettle by coming back from large deficits twice in the last two games. Still, NBA teams are a dreadful 26-46 ATS off back to back upset wins, if they were an underdog of 8+ points in those two victories. Meanwhile, the Clippers are 12-0 SU and 11-1 ATS off a straight-up loss, if priced between -4 and -8 points. Take Los Angeles. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-15-20 | Nuggets v. Clippers UNDER 208 | Top | 104-89 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Denver Nuggets/Los Angeles Clippers game. This will be the Nuggets' fourth straight "Game 7" dating back to last year's playoffs. In 2019, the Nuggets played Game 7s vs. the San Antonio Spurs and Portland Trail Blazers. This season, Denver downed Utah in a Game 7 earlier this month, and now it will play another decisive game tonight. Each of Denver's other Game 7s easily went 'under' the total -- and by very large margins. Its game vs. San Antonio sailed under by 31.5 points; the Portland game went under by 15; and the Game 7 win over Utah went under by 59.5 points. These two teams have gone under 4-0-2 in the last six meetings, and 21-9-3 under in the last 33 meetings. Finally, the 'under' falls into 87-47 and 63-33 Totals systems of mine. Take the 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-15-20 | Dodgers -122 v. Padres | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the San Diego Padres. Tony Gonsolin was a 9th round pick of the Dodgers in the 2016 Amateur draft so you wouldn't think given the depth on this team that he would make much of an impact four years later. But here we are and Gonsolin is now a 26-year-old second-year rookie who looks like he could be a fixture in this rotation for the foreseeable future. After posting a solid 4-2 record and 2.93 ERA in his time split between starting and relieving in 2019, Gonsolin now looks like a serious breakout candidate for a club that has some of the deepest pitching in the Majors. In six appearances this season (five starts) Gonsolin is 0-1 but he has posted a 1.57 ERA and 0.84 WHIP with 28 strikeouts and six walks in 28 2/3 innings coming into tonight. The Padres are having a great season to be sure, but they are still 5-14 in their last 19 games as a home underdog. The Dodgers are 7-2 in the last nine meetings in San Diego. Take Los Angeles. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-15-20 | Islanders v. Lightning -170 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -170 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the New York Islanders. Before the season, we tabbed Tampa Bay as our Futures pick to win the Stanley Cup (at 7-1 odds). And it was one of my two favorite Futures picks over the last 20 years (the other was my pick on Virginia in College Basketball at 22-1 odds, which won in 2019). After a dominating 4-1 victory in Game 4, the Tampa Bay Lightning are one win away from their first Stanley Cup Finals in five years. It seems as if there's little the Islanders can do at this point to stop the Bolts, especially considering that no matter how well goalie Semyon Varlamov plays, Tampa's Andrei Vasilevskiy is just that much better. Simply put, Vasilevskiy is the best net-minder in the world right now and it's really not close. Not that they needed any more help, but the Lightning got the services of Brayden Point back in Game 4. However they used him somewhat sparingly and it would show the Isles how confident they are if they didn't even put their talented forward on the ice tonight in an effort to ensure that he's 100% healthy for the Cup Finals. Tampa feeds off of dominant victories like the one it had in Game 4. The Bolts are 47-16 (+21 games on the moneyline) in their last 63 games after allowing one goal or less in their previous game. And they're also not prone to letdowns, as they're 119-64 (+14 games on the moneyline) off a win. And they're 11-4 when leading in a Playoff series. Take Tampa Bay. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-14-20 | Titans v. Broncos +3 | Top | 16-14 | Win | 103 | 16 h 3 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over Tennessee. It's tough to make money going against the Broncos at home when they're an underdog, or a short favorite. Indeed, since 1981, Denver's gone 50-22 ATS at home when not favored by more than 2 points. Even better: Denver's 28-11 ATS its last 37 home openers when not favored by double-digits, including 5-0 ATS as an underdog! The Broncos have also dominated the Titans, with a record of 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Take Drew Lock & Co. to upset the Titans. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-14-20 | Stars v. Golden Knights -168 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -168 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Vegas Golden Knights over the Dallas Stars. If they Knights are going to get back to the Stanley Cup Finals for the second time in three seasons, then they're going to have to do it by way of a three-game win streak. But despite being down 3-1 to the Stars in this series, there is some good news. For one thing, all three of their losses have been by a single goal while in their lone victory, the Knights won 3-0. Second, they have matched or bested the Stars in shots on goal in all four of the games played and in Game 4, Vegas out-shot Dallas by 13 (33-20). They just have to find a way to get the better of Dallas goalie Anton Khudobin who has been their MVP in the playoffs. Add C/LW Roope Hintz to the Stars' list of walking wounded as he left Game 4 with an undisclosed injury and likely won't be available tonight. That's the second key Dallas Forward to go down with an injury in this series. The Knights are 8-1 (+8 games on the moneyline) in their last nine after losing two straight by one goal. Take Vegas. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-14-20 | Steelers v. Giants +6 | Top | 26-16 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Over the years, Pittsburgh has significantly underperformed as road favorites of -2 or more points vs. non-division foes. Since 1980, they've covered just 24 of 76 games. Additionally, dating back to 1983, home underdogs of +5 or more points have cashed 59% in September if it was Week 1, or they were not off a straight-up loss. Yesterday, we saw the two big home underdogs (Jacksonville, Washington) pull off major upsets. And I look for another upset by the Giants on Monday Night Football this evening. Take the points with New York. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-13-20 | Lightning -140 v. Islanders | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the New York Islanders. The Isles finally put together 60 minutes of solid, physical hockey, resulting in their first win of this series, 5-3, on Friday night. A loss in Game 3 would have all but doomed New York in its quest for its first Stanley Cup Finals appearance since 1984. The Isles still have quite a hill to climb (more like a mountain) as Tampa goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy had an off night in Game 3, and the chances of him having another in succession are small. The Bolts could get a huge lift this afternoon from the possible return of Brayden Point. The dynamic young center missed Game 3 after having to leave Game 2 with an injury but he's been skating with the team. Even without him, Tampa was in the game almost the entire time and easily could have won if the puck had bounced its way in the third period. The Bolts are 12-2 (+9 games on the moneyline) in their last 14 after losing their previous game by two or more goals (39-12, +22 games, in their last 51). Take Tampa. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-13-20 | Indians +129 v. Twins | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 53 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Minnesota Twins. When MLB teams draft 18-year-old high school pitchers, those players usually end up either on another team by the time they reach the Majors, or they simply never get there. But in the case of RHP Triston McKenzie, patience may be paying off -- and in a big way. Cleveland made McKenzie its first-round pick in the 2015 Amateur Draft and now, five years later, he has finally made his MLB debut. With the young pitchers they've had come up recently, the Indians were able to take their time with McKenzie and that may prove to be valuable in the long run. So far, McKenzie has been dazzling, posting a 2-0 record with a 2.57 ERA in four starts covering 21 innings and he has a superb 5.20 K:BB ratio (26 Ks vs. six walks). This will be his first start vs. the Twins and it's safe to say they will represent the most potent offense he's seen. But he should be up to the task. Cleveland is 11-3 in its last 14 road games vs. RH starters. Take the Tribe. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-13-20 | Clippers -8.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 98-111 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, in EARLY action on this Sunday, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over Denver. The #3-seeded Nuggets upset Los Angeles in Game 5 to force this sixth game. But it's still an uphill climb for Denver, as it trails 3-games-to-2 in the series. We'll go against Denver this afternoon, as #3-seeded Playoff teams are a dismal 35-57-3 ATS off an upset playoff win. And the Clippers are 11-0 SU and 10-1 ATS their last 11 away from home, if they lost their previous game, and are favored by 4 (or more) points. Lay it! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-13-20 | Seahawks v. Falcons +1.5 | Top | 38-25 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons over the Seattle Seahawks. These two teams met last season here in Atlanta, and the Seahawks came away with a 27-20 victory. But Atlanta was ravaged with injuries for that game, and was actually installed as a 7.5-point home underdog. The two teams are much more even in talent for this game, and I have 83-49, 66-35 and 86-53 ATS systems on the Falcons. Moreover, the Seahawks have always done great in their home opener, and extremely poorly in their road opener. Dating back to 1999, the Seahawks have covered just 4 of 21 road openers. Meanwhile, they're 13-4 ATS their last 17 home openers. Similarly, the Falcons are a fantastic 17-4 ATS their last 21 home openers, but 4-12 ATS their last 16 road openers. I expect those two trends to stay true to form this afternoon. Additionally, over the last 16 seasons, in Week 1, non-division home teams have cashed 63% when playing with revenge from a home loss to a non-division foe the previous season. Take Atlanta. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-13-20 | Packers v. Vikings -1 | Top | 43-34 | Loss | -128 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings minus the points over Green Bay. Last year, both of these teams made the playoffs, but the Packers defeated Minnesota in both regular season meetings. I love Minnesota to avenge those defeats, as they fall into a division double-revenge system of mine which is 23-6 ATS since 1987, including a perfect 15-0 ATS when priced from -2 to -7 points! Even better: the Packers are 1-7 straight-up, and 1-6-1 ATS when getting 2+ points from a division rival it defeated twice the previous season. Finally, the Vikings are a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS their last five home openers, while the Packers are a poor 4-7 ATS their last 11 road openers. Lay the points with Minnesota. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-12-20 | Coastal Carolina v. Kansas -6.5 | Top | 38-23 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 59 m | Show |
At 10 pm, our selection is on the Kansas Jayhawks minus the points over Coastal Carolina. Last season, the Chanticleers went into Lawrence, and upset the Jayhawks, 12-7, as a 7-point underdog. We'll lay the points with Kansas in this rematch, as Big 12 Conference teams have cashed 73% over the last 20 years at home when playing with revenge vs. non-conference foes. Even better: Kansas is an awesome 33-6 SU and 25-14 ATS when favored by 3 or more points, including 6-1 ATS when playing with revenge. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-12-20 | Astros v. Dodgers -142 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -142 | 16 h 51 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Houston Astros. The Dodgers had a rare Friday off last night and now begin a two-game series against the team that beat them in the World Series three years ago. But this is a better team than that one (or the one that lost the series again the following season). And, in fact, it just might be the best Dodger team in a very long time (which could bode well for us, as the Dodgers were our Futures pick to win the World Series at 4-1 odds). No National League club has finished the season with a winning percentage over .700 since 1909, but L.A. has a chance to do it (although this accomplishment in 2020's shortened season would have an asterisk associated with it). LHP Julio Urias has successfully made the transition from starter-reliever to full-time rotation member. In eight starts, the 24 year-old is 3-0 with a 3.86 ERA and almost a strikeout per inning. Urias has never faced the Astros before, including the 2017 World Series as he was not on that roster. But he loves pitching here at home where he has a 7-3 record and a 3.21 ERA in just under 121 innings. And the Dodgers are 13-4 (+7 games on the moneyline) behind Urias at home, when priced from -125 to -175. Finally, Houston is 3-14 in its last 17 road games. Take L.A. As always, good luck...Al Mcmordie. |
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09-12-20 | Western Kentucky +12.5 v. Louisville | Top | 21-35 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 40 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers + the points over Louisville. These two Bluegrass State rivals met in Nashville last season, and the Cardinals came out on top, 38-21, as a 10.5-point favorite. That was the 11th straight time Louisville has defeated Western Kentucky, dating back to 1982. So, there's nothing the Hilltoppers' coach, Tyson Helton, will want more than to end that losing streak tonight. Both of these teams had rebirths last season under 1st-year coaches. Helton led the Hilltoppers to a 9-4 record, following a 3-9 campaign in 2018. And Scott Satterfield guided Louisville to an 8-5 record after the Cards went 2-10 in 2018. One of the things I love to do in College Football is to play on certain revenge-minded teams, and the Hilltoppers fall into several of my better revenge angles, with records of 129-72, 22-6, 72-31, 58-22 and 80-37 ATS. The Cardinals have been installed as a double-digit favorite, but they're a wallet-busting 5-15 ATS their last 20 as a home favorite of more than 10 points. And they're 3-14 ATS their last 17 as a home favorite, priced from -6 to -13.5, vs. non-conference foes. Grab the points with Western Kentucky. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-12-20 | Tulane -10.5 v. South Alabama | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Tulane minus the points over South Alabama. Last week, the Jaguars went into Hattiesburg, and upset Southern Miss, 32-21, as a 12-point underdog. Prior to that win, the Jaguars had not won away from home in 15 games. South Alabama will be back home for this game, but I don't believe a 2nd straight upset is in the offing. Indeed, the Jaguars fall into two negative "letdown" systems of mine that go against certain teams off upset wins that have records of 106-181 and 67-113 ATS since 1980. The Jaguars are an awful 35.7% ATS at home off a straight-up win, while Tulane has cashed 75% as a favorite vs. foes off upset wins. And the Green Wave's coach, Willie Fritz, has gone 28-13 ATS as a favorite in his career, whether here at Tulane (since 2016), or at Georgia Southern before that (2014-15). Take the Green Wave to blow out South Alabama. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-12-20 | Braves -110 v. Nationals | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Washington Nationals. After scoring 36 runs over their two previous games, the Braves "only" scored 7 runs last night, but lost 8-7 in 12 innings to the Nationals. Tonight, we'll take the Braves to bounce back behind rookie RHP Ian Anderson, who is 2-0 this season, with a 2.40 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. Washington will counter with southpaw Patrick Corbin, who is having a down season, with a 2-4 record, and 4.34 ERA. Washington has now dropped Corbin's last five starts, and is also 2-7 his last nine starts as an underdog. The Braves are outscoring their opponents by 1.15 runs per game this season. And that bodes well for them this evening, as Washington is a poor 10-23 at home vs. foes that outscore their opponents by 1+ runs per game. Take Atlanta. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-11-20 | Indians v. Twins +102 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 102 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Cleveland Indians. This is a great matchup tonight between the Twins' Kenta Maeda, and Cleveland's undefeated (7-0) Shane Bieber. The two teams are separated by just a half-game in the standings, as Cleveland (26-18) has one less win than does Minnesota (27-18), so this is a critical series for Playoffs seeding purposes (both should eventually make the expanded Playoffs). We'll take the homestanding Twins, as Maeda's home ERA is an impressive 1.80, with a microscopic 0.40 ERA. The Twins have won all of his home starts this season, including a 3-0 shutout of these Indians on August 1. And Maeda also was victorious in his lone start at Cleveland (August 24) when he held the Indians to just one run over eight innings, and struck out 12 batters. Cleveland's a poor 29-46 (minus 18 games on the moneyline) on the road vs. American League starting pitchers with an ERA of 3.40 (or better), and was no-hit for 7 2-3 innings last night by rookie Brady Singer. Take Minnesota. |
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09-11-20 | Red Sox v. Rays -228 | Top | 1-11 | Win | 100 | 5 h 20 m | Show |
At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Boston Red Sox. Two seasons removed from his Cy Young campaign and it appears that Blake Snell is back to being close to what he was in 2018. 2019 was for the most part an injured and lost season for the 27 year-old LH ace, but so far this season, Snell has shown some of the form that won him 21 games with a league-leading 1.89 ERA two seasons ago. In eight starts, Snell is 3-1 with a 3.74 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 3.75 K:BB ratio in just under 34 innings. That 3.75 ratio is actually better than the one he put up in his Cy Young campaign and the best so far in his five MLB seasons. The good news for him tonight is that Snell has more victories (six) against the Red Sox than he has vs. any other team in the league. In 11 games vs. Boston (all starts), Snell is 6-3 with a 2.83 ERA in just over 57 innings. And southpaws have been posing quite a problem for Boston lately as the Sox are 4-13 (-9 games on the moneyline) in their last 17 games vs. LH starters. Take Tampa. |
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09-11-20 | Phillies -145 v. Marlins | Top | 11-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
At 5:10 pm, in Game 1 of the double-header, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Miami Marlins. After Aaron Nola won 17 games and finished 3rd in the Cy Young balloting for the Phillies in 2018, many people expected an even bigger season the following year. But that didn't happen and 2019 was a bit of a regression for the then-26-year-old RH ace. But so far, 2020 has seen a similar performance to the one that Nola put up two seasons ago. In eight starts, Nola is 3-1 with a 2.74 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 5.15 K:BB ratio (67 strikeouts vs. 13 walks). Those last two numbers are the best of Nola's career to this point. The Marlins will go with first-year southpaw Trevor Rogers (1-0; 3.00 ERA in three starts). The Phillies are 5-1 in their last six games vs. lefthanded starters. Meanwhile the Marlins are 2-6 in their last eight home games vs. teams with a winning record. Finally, the Phillies are 12-2 (+9 games on the moneyline) in their last 14 as a favorite of -125 to -175. Take Philadelphia. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-10-20 | Texans v. Chiefs -9 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 15 h 59 m | Show |
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Houston. Last January, these two teams met in the quarterfinals, and we had a play on Kansas City minus 8.5 points, and also had our NFL Total of the Year on the over 51. The Texans jumped out to a 24-0 lead, but then collapsed, and lost 51-31. One of the things I highlighted last season in my breakdown of that Playoff game was that Houston was the only team -- of the 12 that qualified for the post-season -- which had a negative scoring differential. And they also had the 2nd-worst defense of any Playoff team, as they gave up 24.06 ppg in the regular season. Yes, it's a new season, so Houston's defensive numbers don't carry over to this year. Still, it's worth noting that the Chiefs have dominated teams that allow 23.66 points or more, as they're 32-8 SU and 26-13-1 ATS their last 40. Some may look for a Super Bowl hangover in Week 1, but that theory has never actually been validated by the data. Indeed, defending Super Bowl champs are on a 16-3 SU and 13-4-2 ATS run in Week 1 since 2001. Kansas City also falls into 11-0, 47-14, 82-49 and 65-28 ATS systems of mine. And it ended last season on an 8-0-1 ATS run. I won't step in front of this freight train at home, even with most of the seats empty. Lay the points with the Chiefs. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-10-20 | Reds v. Cubs +127 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 127 | 15 h 53 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Cincinnati Reds. In his last start, the Reds' RHP, Sonny Gray, didn't make it out of the first inning, as he gave up 6 runs, 5 hits, 3 walks, in just two-thirds of an inning.  The Reds are a poor 13-20 (minus 14 games on the moneyline) vs. right-handed starters this season (compared to 5-4 vs. lefties). And they're 74-110 (minus 20 games on the moneyline) on the road. Take the Cubs as a home underdog. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-10-20 | Royals v. Indians -200 | Top | 11-1 | Loss | -200 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Kansas City Royals. The Royals pulled off a big upset on Wednesday, beating the Indians and starter Carlos Carrasco, 3-0. Of course when you can't score runs, it doesn't matter how good your starting pitching is -- and Carrasco really couldn't do much more than he did last night. But KC can't put southpaw Danny Duffy out there again tonight, so instead it will go with rookie RH Brady Singer. Singer might be a star one day, but that won't be 2020, as the 2018 first-round draft choice has struggled through eight MLB starts so far. Singer is 1-4 with a 5.58 ERA and 1.44 WHIP, with just a 2.40 K:BB ratio (36:15) in over 40 innings coming into tonight. Cleveland will go with RHP Aaron Civale who, like his teammate Carrasco, had a bad beat in his last start, with a no-decision in a 4-3 loss to the Brewers, despite a quality effort. Look for a bounce back tonight. The Indians are 19-9 in their last 28 home games vs. teams with a RH starter. Take Cleveland. |
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09-10-20 | Astros +132 v. A's | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Oakland Athletics. Jose Urquidy pretty much came out of nowhere in the latter half of last season to post some pretty eye-popping numbers for the Astros. In nine appearances, the then-24-year-old RH went 2-1 with a 3.95 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with 40 strikeouts and seven walks in 41 innings (a 5.7 K:BB ratio). Urquidy's anticipated 2020 debut was delayed by an undisclosed injury and as a result, his first start was -- in a word -- underwhelming (two runs on four hits in 3 2/3 innings). That first start was against the Angels in Anaheim and now start number two comes this afternoon in Oakland, a much friendlier place for young starting pitchers and it will be Urquidy's first start here. The A's will go with LH Sean Manaea. And the 'Stros are 45-15 in their last 60 games vs. southpaw starters and 39-14 in their last 53 road games vs. lefthanders. Houston is also 79-39 (+11 games on the moneyline) in its last 118 daytime games. Take the Astros. |
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09-09-20 | Astros v. A's -165 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Oakland A's over the Houston Astros. Southpaw rookie Jesus Luzardo will face the team against which he earned his first Major League win, back on August 9. In that game, Luzardo held the Astros to 2 runs and 5 hits over 5 2-3 innings, en route to a 7-2 victory. Oakland is a solid 90-39 (+31 games on the moneyline) as a home favorite, including 52-16 (+23 games on the moneyline) at -150 or more. Meanwhile, Houston is 6-13 on the road, including 2-7 as an underdog. Take the A's. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-09-20 | Islanders v. Lightning -162 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the New York Islanders. If this was supposed to be a close Finals Series with a lot of back-and-forth play then somebody forgot to tell the Lightning before Game 1. In the biggest rout of the post-season since they did basically the same thing to the Bruins about two weeks ago, the Bolts blitzed the Isles, 8-2 in a game that was basically over almost as soon as it started. New York tried everything, including replacing its goalie but nothing helped. The Isles have to regroup now but clearly they need another formula from the one they employed on Monday night. Tampa goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy didn't have his best stuff in Game 1 (two goals allowed on 24 shots) but he didn't have to. And the scary thing for New York is that Tampa generally doesn't have letdowns after games like that. In fact the Bolts are 21-9 (+6 games on the moneyline) in their last 30 after a blowout win by four or more goals. They're also 11-2 in their last 13 after a five-game win streak. Take the Lightning. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-09-20 | White Sox -157 v. Pirates | Top | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Pittsburgh Pirates. It may seem like the White Sox got one very talented pitcher -- Lucas Giolito -- from Washington in exchange for OF Adam Eaton back at the end of 2016. But now the trade may begin to look even more lopsided as the other pitcher the Nats sent to Chicago -- RH Dane Dunning -- could be a blossoming star, just like Giolito turned out to be. After all, the 25-year-old Dunning was a first round choice of the Nationals in the 2016 Amateur draft. And although it's taken him longer to get to the majors than Giolito, Dunning may be ready to break out. In three starts in his first MLB campaign, Dunning has posted a 3.86 ERA with 18 strikeouts in 14 innings. He's still looking for this first Major League win, but that could easily come tonight against the 14-26 Pirates. The Pirates somehow beat this team last night, 5-4, but they are just 2-11 (-9 games on the moneyline) in their last 13 interleague contests. Take the White Sox. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-09-20 | Yankees -133 v. Blue Jays | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 23 m | Show |
At 6:35 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Toronto Blue Jays. The Yankees are in the midst of a 5-15 stretch, but I love them to bounce back this evening. New York will have a decided advantage on the mound with Deivi Garcia (3.37 ERA) vs. Tanner Roark, given Roark's 5.75 ERA and 1.78 WHIP in his seven starts this season. And at home, those numbers deteriorate to 7.00 ERA and 2.00 WHIP. That's pretty ugly. New York is 76-40 as a favorite of -150 or less (+26 games on the moneyline), and they're 7-1 this season when the Over/Under is 10+ runs. Take the Yankees. |
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09-09-20 | Raptors v. Celtics UNDER 209.5 | Top | 125-122 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Toronto Raptors/Boston Celtics Game 6. The first five games of this series have each gone 'under' the total, which has driven down the number from 217.5 in Game 1 to 210 for this Game 6. Some may take the 'over' today because of the relative "value,", but consider that each of the five games have also gone 'under' 210, as well. Indeed, the average score of the five games in this series has been just 201.4 points. The Celtics have now played seven straight 'unders' and 10 of their past 11, while the Raptors have gone 'under' in seven of eight. And, dating back to the 2018 post-season, the Celtics have gone 'under' in 21 of 28 Playoff games, including 15-1 'under' when priced from 205 to 219. This will be another low-scoring game. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-09-20 | Raptors +3.5 v. Celtics | Top | 125-122 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors + the points over the Boston Celtics. The Raptors were blown out by 22 points on Monday night, so they are in a MUST-WIN situation tonight. I love the Raptors to bounce back, as they've gone 11-1 SU/ATS off a loss by more than 11 points. Additionally, .600 (or better) teams have cashed 79% in Game 6 of the quarterfinals, if down 3-games-to-2, and off a double-digit loss. Grab the points with the Raptors. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-09-20 | Royals v. Indians -187 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -187 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Kansas City Royals. Carlos Carrasco's return this season from a bout with cancer is nothing short of miraculous. If he had come back to get some part-time relief innings that would be considered enough of a success. But that fact that he's a full-time starter logging quality innings after what he went through is really quite remarkable. In eight starts covering 42 innings Carrasco has a 3.43 ERA and 52 strikeouts. The only stat that's been troubling for the 33-year-old righthander is his walk rate as Carrasco has issued a career-high 4.3 free passes on average every nine innings. Carrasco also only has two victories in his eight starts but perhaps getting the ball against KC tonight will help change that. In 26 games (21 starts) covering 128 1/3 innings vs. the Royals, Carrasco is 12-7 and those 12 wins represent the most that he's had vs. any team. The Indians are 55-18 (+11 games on the money line) in their last 73 home games as a favorite of -200 or more. Take Cleveland. |
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09-08-20 | Dodgers -220 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 10-9 | Win | 100 | 15 h 26 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Arizona Diamondbacks. Whether it was his nagging finger blister or some other reason, Walker Buehler got off to a very rough start this season. After four starts, the Dodger RH ace had a 5.21 ERA and was still looking for his first victory and his first quality start. He got both in his next start at the end of August, and then followed that up with five scoreless innings against these D-Backs in a home outing six days ago. So, if teams thought the Dodgers and their league-best .714 winning percentage were scary before, just think about how they feel now with Buehler potentially hitting his stride. He'll get his second start in a row vs. Arizona -- this time at Chase Field -- but that shouldn't matter. In two previous starts here, Buehler is 1-0 with a 1.93 ERA and 16 strikeouts with two walks in 14 innings. Overall, Buehler is 1-0 with a 2.61 ERA in seven starts vs. Arizona. The Dodgers are also 22-7 (+8 games on the moneyline) in Buehler's last 29 starts vs. division opponents. Take Los Angeles. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-08-20 | Stars v. Golden Knights -159 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Vegas Golden Knights over the Dallas Stars. Whatever we were expecting from Game 1 of this series, what we got was an old-fashioned defensive battle. When the smoke cleared, it was the Stars' first period goal which made all the difference in an unlikely 1-0 victory over favored Vegas. A total of only 50 shots on goal were fired in the entire 60 minutes (25 for each side). It was the exact same strategy that the Stars employed to take down the heavily favored, and offensively superior Avalanche. But if the you're Vegas, the worst thing you can do now is panic and start changing lines. When they were shut out by the Canucks in Game 6 as a heavy favorite, the Knights simply re-grouped to turn the tables in a 3-0 Game 7 victory. The Knights will get a big boost tonight from the return of tough, physical forward Ryan Reeves, who is back after a one-game suspension. Vegas is 8-3 in its last 11 after being shut out. Take the Knights. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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09-08-20 | Yankees +106 v. Blue Jays | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
At 6:35 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Toronto Blue Jays. J.A. Happ spent the better part of six seasons with the Toronto Blue Jays during two different stints there (2012 - 2014 and 2016-2018). Arguably, the veteran southpaw had his best years with the Jays (he won 20 games with them in 2016 at the age of 33) so it must be at least a little bitter-sweet when he has to face them now. After two straight starts against the Mets, Happ will go opposite his old team for the sixth time since coming to New York, and the first time this season. Happ's numbers this season may not jump off the page at you (1-1 with a 4.68 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in five starts covering 25 innings) but he has a way of being effective even when he doesn't have his best stuff. Call him the quintessential "crafty lefty." The Yankees are 20-9 (+10 games on the moneyline) in Happ's last 29 road starts and 27-11 (+11 games on the moneyline) in his last 38 nighttime starts). Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-08-20 | Rays -156 v. Nationals | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -156 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Washington Nationals. Who would have imagined just two years ago that, in September of 2020, the Rays would be prohibitive favorites in DC against the mighty Nationals? Well, as crazy as this season has been, it's even crazier when you consider who the contenders and pretenders are at this stage. With Boston never getting out of the box, the Yanks faltering, and Toronto still at least a year away from being a true contender, the Rays are the overwhelming favorites to win the AL East. Tampa's roster is full of bargain players, and Ryan Yarbrough is a good example. He's not going to win a Cy Young anytime soon, but the 3rd-year southpaw (on a 1-year contract for about $500K) is a very good pitcher who can fill spots in the rotation and provide valuable innings in relief. This evening, he'll get start number eight after coming off the DL for a groin injury. Yarbrough is 16-7 with a 3.44 ERA in 43 night games (17 starts). And he's also 16-5 with a 3.32 ERA in 37 career road games. Take Tampa. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-07-20 | Clippers -9 v. Nuggets | Top | 113-107 | Loss | -101 | 17 h 36 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over the Denver Nuggets. The Clippers were upset by the #3-seeded Nuggets, 110-101, on Saturday. But off that upset win, we will fade Denver in this Game 3. Since 1990, #3-seeded NBA teams have been awful off an upset playoff win, and especially when installed as an underdog of more than 5 points. In that role, they've gone 2-25 straight-up, and 7-19-1 ATS. Even better, Kawhi Leonard's teams have gone 24-1 straight-up, and 19-6 ATS their last 25 off a loss by more than eight points, including 7-0 ATS their last seven. Lay the points with Doc Rivers' men. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-07-20 | Islanders v. Lightning -146 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 16 h 34 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the New York Islanders. There's quite a contrast in the way these two teams got to this point. The Lightning rolled past the over-matched Bruins in five games, winning four straight after losing the opener and out-scoring Boston 13-4 in the final three. Meanwhile, the Islanders had a back-and-forth, seven-game nail-biting series with the Flyers, finally putting it all together in Game 7 with a no-doubt victory. And while Tampa won't get the services of its leader, Steven Stamkos back for this series (so says the team currently), it will have Nikita Kucherov (high stick to the face) ready to go tonight and that's very good news. But the man of the hour would seem to be Tampa's all-everything goaltender, Andrei Vasilevskiy. There's little doubt now that the 26-year-old is the best netminder in the game, never mind the best left in the playoffs. It's hard to imagine the Isles having much of an answer to him. The Bolts are 10-2 in their last 12 games vs. teams from the Metropolitan division, and Tampa's also 13-2 this season (and 35-14 their last 49) when they've won their four previous games. Take Tampa Bay. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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09-07-20 | Tigers v. Twins -205 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Detroit Tigers. When the Twins signed Michael Pineda to a two-year contract at the bargain price of $10 Million back in 2017, they knew they were getting some damaged goods and that Pineda would be a work in progress. And despite a rocky road in 2018 and 2019 that included just 26 starts, some nagging knee issues, and a drug suspension, the Twins thought enough of the veteran RHP to give him another two-year contract last year. It seems like Pineda has been around forever so it's hard to believe that he's just 31-years-old. Pineda is off the restricted list, healthy and ready to contribute. And his opponent this afternoon is, coincidentally, the team against which Pineda last earned an MLB win. That was last September, and he gave up just 5 hits and 1 BB over six innings, en route to an 8-3 victory. Today, Pineda will match up against RHP Michael Fulmer. Fulmer has gone from being the AL Rookie of the Year in 2016, at age 23, to basically being an afterthought just four years later. Fulmer has no wins, and a 7.27 ERA in six starts, covering 17 1/3 innings in 2020. Detroit also is 5-13 (-8 games on the moneyline) in Fulmer's last 18 daytime starts. Take Minnesota. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-06-20 | Rockets v. Lakers -5.5 | Top | 109-117 | Win | 100 | 14 h 4 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over Houston. In LeBron James' storied career, his teams (Cleveland, Miami, Los Angeles) have been terrific in the NBA Playoffs when they were favored by at least 2 points, and were not winning the series. Dating back to his first season in the Playoffs (2006), LeBron's teams have gone 61-14 straight-up, and 48-27 ATS, including 7-0 straight-up and 5-2 ATS when down 1 game to none. That's one reason I love LeBron & Co. to bounce back off their dismal effort on Friday. Another is that teams seeded #3 (or worse) and installed as underdogs of more than 5 points away from home, have covered just 71 of 183 games off an upset playoff win. Take the Lakers in Game #2. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-06-20 | Stars v. Golden Knights -160 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -160 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Vegas Golden Knights over the Dallas Stars. While most people probably expected the Knights to be here in the Western Conference Finals, the fact that the Stars made it this far is somewhat of a surprise. It's Dallas' first trip here in over 10 years (2008) and the Stars made it by basically beating the Avalanche at their own game. But Colorado was at a distinct disadvantage without its #1 goalie, Philipp Grubauer who missed almost the entire series with an injury, leaving the team to rely on its #2 and #3 net-minders, neither of whom were very effective in the end. That's a problem the Knights don't have as not only do they have a strong veteran goalie who's been here before in Marc-Andre Fleury, but they also have one of the best in the game in Robin Lehner. This is probably the match-up the Knights wanted as they are 6-1 in the last seven meetings with the Stars, while Dallas has won just 16 of 37 games (minus 10 games on the moneyline) off a game in which they scored more than four goals. Take Vegas. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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09-06-20 | Astros -145 v. Angels | Top | 5-9 | Loss | -145 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Los Angeles Angels. Southpaw Framber Valdez will get the start for Houston today, and all he's done this season is compile a 2.77 ERA, including 1.23 on the road. Over the last three seasons, he's made four starts vs. the Angels. He's given up just seven runs over 23 innings (2.74 ERA), while striking out 25, and allowing just 12 hits. Meanwhile, his mound opponent, Jaime Barria, has a career 4.59 ERA vs. Houston. And Barria's teams have won just two of his seven starts vs. Houston. Take the Astros. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-06-20 | Padres -110 v. A's | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Oakland Athletics. Few pitchers have benefited more from their offense this season than Oakland's Mike Fiers. The 35-year-old RH has some pretty scary numbers -- 10.2 hits allowed per nine innings, a 1.91 K:BB ratio, a 1.43 WHIP and an ERA of almost five runs. Yet somehow Fiers is 4-1 in his seven starts. And when you look at his run support, you can understand why he's had that much success. The A's have scored an amazing 7.1 runs on average per 27 outs that Fiers has pitched this season. Those numbers simply aren't sustainable and at some point the won-lost record is going to reflect Fiers' poor pitching stats. It could start to unravel this afternoon against one of the best offenses in the Majors. San Diego's 233 runs scored through their first 41 games is tops in baseball. The Padres lost last night to the A's and LH Sean Manaea but they are still 17-9 (+7 games on the moneyline) in their last 26 games vs. RH starters. Take San Diego. |
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09-06-20 | Bucks +2 v. Heat | Top | 118-115 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks + the points over Miami. The Heat will aim to go 8-0 SU/ATS in the playoffs with a win and cover this afternoon. But their long SU/ATS win streak has led to a big movement in this point spread. If Miami was an underdog once again (they were a 5-point underdog in the series' first three games), I would consider grabbing the points. But they're a small favorite now. Consider that underdogs up 3-games-to-none have gone 14-4-1 ATS. However, small favorites of less than 3 points (or PK) have only covered 4 of 13 when up 3-games-to-none. We'll grab the value with Milwaukee, and fade the Heat. For technical support, also consider that, over the last 29 years, sub-.666 teams off an upset win that had covered their previous seven games have cashed just 47 of 139 games. Take Milwaukee. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-06-20 | Nationals v. Braves -112 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Washington Nationals. Call it what you want -- World Series Curse, target on their back, etc. -- but it doesn't look like there's any way the Nats are going to repeat as MLB Champs. In fact the way things are going, they'd be very lucky to finish the season with a .500 record and out of the cellar of the NL East. Sure, they were way under .500 early on in 2019, but this is different as we're already 2/3 of the way through 2020. Injuries have played a huge role in the Nats' demise and it seems like almost no player has been spared at this point. That has to be music to the ears of Braves veteran RHP Josh Tomlin, who won't face Starlin Castro -- out for the season -- and also likely won't see OFs Adam Eaton or Juan Soto who are questionable with minor injuries but who will both likely get the day off. Atlanta likes these afternoon affairs this season as the Braves are 7-1 (+7 games on the moneyline) in their last eight day games. They are also 20-4 in their last 24 as a favorite. |
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09-05-20 | Islanders -124 v. Flyers | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the New York Islanders over the Philadelphia Flyers. You can sum up another come-from-behind Flyers victory on Thursday to force this seventh game in two words -- Carter Hart. The young goaltender was outstanding when he needed to be, amidst an onslaught of pressure from a superior Islanders offense for most of the game's five periods. When the smoke cleared, and Ivan Provorov had won it for Philly, Hart had made a remarkable 49 saves and was the unquestionable MVP for his team. On the other end, Semyon Varlamov had his second shaky performance in a row so I wouldn't be surprised if Barry Trotz tabbed Thomas Greiss to be in net for New York tonight. But we've seen Hart struggle after a huge effort before, so if the Isles keep the pressure up like they did on Thursday, they should find themselves in the East Finals against the Lightning. Indeed, they've been without a doubt the better team in this series. One of my favorite stats of this year's Playoffs is that New York is 10-5 in the Playoffs, and has yet to lose by more than 1 goal. In other words: they've played well enough to have won every single game. For the Playoffs, they've outscored their foes 50-31, while the Flyers have actually been outscored 33-27, even though they've won seven of 12 games.  So, New York's outscored its foes by an average of 1.26 gpg, while the Flyers have been outscored by 0.5 gpg. New York's a super 33-25 off back to back losses (+10 games on the moneyline). Take the Islanders. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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09-05-20 | Yankees -232 v. Orioles | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -232 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over Baltimore.  New York's won 18 of the last 19 meetings with Baltimore here, at Camden Yards. Tonight, they'll hand the ball to Gerrit Cole, who had won 20 consecutive regular season decisions, dating back to last year, before dropping his last two outings. Cole's ERA is 2.29 vs. the Orioles, and his teams are 3-0 vs. Baltimore in his three career starts, including a 9-3 victory earlier this season at Camden Yards. Keegan Akin will make his second career start tonight after joining the rotation following the trade of Tommy Milone to the Braves. Akin was effective two years ago in AA ball for the Bowie Baysox, but struggled somewhat at AAA Norfolk last year, as he was 6-7, with a 4.73 ERA. It's true that Cole has "not been himself" over his last two starts (9 runs in 10 innings) -- so much so that he watched videotape to see if he was tipping his pitches (but didn't find anything). The most important thing is that he's healthy, so his poor outings are not injury-related. And it also must be noted that his last two outings were against the Rays and Braves, who are both leading their divisions. Cole's teams are 34-5 when favored by -200+ in his last 39 starts. Take New York. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-05-20 | Blue Jays -130 v. Red Sox | Top | 8-9 | Loss | -130 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over Boston. The Red Sox are a horrid 2-13 this season (and 9-23 their last 32) as a home underdog, and 7-22, overall, as an underdog this season. They'll hand the ball to RHP Ryan Weber this evening. Unfortunately, he's not been effective this year, as he's 0-2 in four starts, with an 8.36 ERA and 2.00 WHIP. He's given up six home runs, and walked nine batters, in just 14 innings this season. Even worse, in his career, his teams have won just one of his nine starts, when he's been installed as the underdog. Chase Anderson will start for Toronto, and he's been extremely consistent. In his five starts, he gave up exactly 1 earned run in four of them. And he's had just four walks, and given up just two home runs in his 19 2-3 innings. Take Toronto. |
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09-05-20 | Brewers v. Indians -112 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
Seven starts into the season, and Indians RH Aaron Civale has matched his record from all of 2019 (3-4). And despite his ERA being considerably higher so far this season (3.72 vs. 2.34) there are some other positive trends. Perhaps the most telling improvement for the 25-year-old is his control. Last season, Civale walked 2.5 hitters per nine innings on average. So far this season, Civale has cut that number by more than half, averaging just 1.2 free passes per game. So it's not too surprising that his ERA has gone up since he's putting more pitches over the plate. But at the same time, Civale has increased his strikeout rate this season almost a K per inning from 7.2 (2019) to 8.4. These improvements have a lot to do with Civale having tossed his first career complete game three starts ago at Pittsburgh, in a 6-1 victory over the Pirates. Cleveland lost to this club on Friday but is still 6-2 in its last eight interleague games vs. teams with a losing record. Take the Tribe. |
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09-04-20 | Padres v. A's -139 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -139 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the San Diego Padres. Oakland's starter tonight is LH Jesus Luzardo. There are plenty of young starters on the A's roster, but none is hyped any more than the 22-year-old from Lima, Peru (by way of Florida). Luzardo burst on the MLB scene last season with a 1.50 ERA in six relief appearances. And although his numbers aren't as eye-popping in 2020, Luzardo has become a full-time member of the rotation and he's making the most of it so far. In seven games -- five starts -- Luzardo has a 2-1 record with a 3.74 ERA and 34 strikeouts in 33 2/3 innings. The A's are 88-37 (+32 games on the moneyline) as a home favorite. Take the A's. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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