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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-24-19 | Tigers v. Twins -300 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Detroit Tigers. After being mired in mediocre pitching numbers for years -- a roughly .500 record with ERAs around five runs -- Twins RH Kyle Gibson is finally having a productive campaign in his seventh season. Gibson is 11-6 (.647) with a 4.40 ERA and a career-best 2.96 K:BB ratio in 26 games (25 starts) covering 139 innings. Although Gibson's ERA is higher here at home than it is on the road, the 31-year-old has a substantially better record at Target Field (7-3) than he does when pitching elsewhere (4-3). The Tigers will go with the well-traveled RH Edwin Jackson. The 17-year veteran is in his second stint with the Tigers (he pitched for Detroit in 2009) and it's pretty clear at this point that the 35-year-old's best years are well behind him. In 11 games (eight starts) in 2019 with Toronto and Detroit, Jackson is 3-6 with an 8.46 ERA in just under 45 innings. The Twins are 22-5 (+10 games on the money line) in their last 27 as a favorite of -200 or more. Take Minnesota. |
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08-24-19 | Phillies -118 v. Marlins | Top | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Miami Marlins. After a promising 2018 campaign -- his third in the Majors -- in which he won 11 of 24 starts, expectations were pretty high for Phillies' RHP Zach Eflin coming into 2019. So far it's been a lost season for the 25-year-old who has managed a record of just 7-11 with a 4.57 ERA in 25 appearances (21 starts). But Eflin also knows that if he turns it around the rest of the way and helps his team get to the post-season, it will erase everything he's done up to this point. Tonight would be a great time to get started with that turnaround as Eflin faces the 46-81 Marlins for the fourth time this season. After a disastrous July (0-4 with an 11.88 ERA) Eflin was relegated to the bullpen to start August and has responded nicely. Eflin's pitched better this month and deserves another starting shot especially in light of the recent news that Jake Arrieta has been lost for the season (elbow). The Marlins won a shootout here in Miami last night, but they are still just 19-42 in their last 61 games vs. NL East opponents. Take the Phillies. |
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08-24-19 | Yankees v. Dodgers -144 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the New York Yankees. The Dodgers were blown out, 10-2, last night. And that was the first time all season they lost at home with Hyun Jin Ryu on the mound. Today, they'll look to bounce back with Tony Gonsolin getting the start opposite CC Sabathia. And we'll go against the Yankee southpaw, as Sabathia has an 11.92 ERA in his last three starts (all New York losses). Even worse for New York: it's 4-17 its last 21 as road underdogs of +150 or less, while the Dodgers are 13-1 in daytime home games, and 51-17 overall at home this season. Take the Dodgers. |
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08-23-19 | Tigers v. Twins -200 | Top | 9-6 | Loss | -200 | 19 h 38 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Detroit Tigers. If the Twins are going to make a deep run in the post-season -- whether it's as a Division Champ or a Wild Card -- they will need their aces to step up. That includes RHP Jose Berrios. The 25-year-old Puerto Rican has been getting knocked around a bit in the month of August (0-1 with a 8.44 ERA in three starts). If something is going to help Berrios bounce back, then it might just be a start at home against the Tigers. In eight career games vs. Detroit (seven starts), Berrios is 4-1 in 36 innings -- although the ERA is quite high. One of those victories was earlier this season -- April 14 to be exact -- when he threw 6 2/3 quality innings, allowing just two runs on four hits with seven strikeouts and one walk in a 6-4 Twins win. And in 11 home starts this season, Berrios is 5-2 with a 3.27 ERA in just under 72 innings. The Tigers are 2-6 in the last eight meetings at Target Field and 4-12 in the last 16 meetings overall. Take the Twins against Drew VerHagen (6.67 ERA; 1.82 WHIP) and the Tigers tonight. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-23-19 | Royals v. Indians -168 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 18 h 37 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Kansas City Royals. The Indians return home after a rain-shortened loss last night in the third game of their series in Queens. They not only get TO step down in class by facing the Royals this weekend, but they also get to use a DH once again. Game 1 will feature RHPs Jakob Junis (KC) and rookie Zach Plesac. Plesac's debut season has been a success so far as the 24-year-old is 6-4 with a 3.53 ERA in 15 starts. He certainly shouldn't mind facing the Royals for the fourth time this season. In his three previous starts vs. KC (the most he's had against any team), Plesac is 2-0 with a 2.30 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in just under 16 innings. After a promising rookie campaign in 2017, Junis has really struggled last year and now in 2019. He went 9-12 with a 4.37 ERA in 30 starts last year and so far this season, the 26-year-old is 8-11 with a 4.78 ERA in just under 151 innings. And in five starts vs. Cleveland in 2019, Junis is 1-3 with a 6.52 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in 29 innings. Finally, the Royals are 8-25 in the last 33 meetings in Cleveland. Take the Tribe.  MLB Roadkill Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-22-19 | Rockies v. Cardinals -132 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
At 7:45 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Colorado Rockies. There's no question that Cards' RH Miles Mikolas has taken a big step backwards from his breakout season of a year ago. For one thing, Mikolas' W/L ledger of 2019 (7-13) is almost the inverse of what he did in 2018 (18-4). And his ERA is 4.30 compared to the 2.83 stat he posted last year. But despite his numbers, the Cards know that Mikolas can still contribute to their final month and playoff push, and they will keep putting him out on the mound every five or six days. Two of his three starts this month have been on the road where Mikolas has had most of his struggles this season. He's back home for start number 26 and in his last six starts here at Busch Stadium, Mikolas has been brilliant. Over that span, he has allowed just nine runs (seven earned) in 37 2/3 innings while the Cards are 4-2 in those. That's an ERA of just 1.67 over that span, which includes Mikolas' only complete game of the season, a 7-0 shutout of the Pirates on July 15. The Rox are also a poor 17-39 in the last 56 games vs. St. Louis, and 6-21 in their last 27 road games. Take the Cardinals. MLB Roadkill Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-22-19 | Jaguars +3 v. Dolphins | Top | 7-22 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 33 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over the Miami Dolphins. The Jaguars come into this game with the worst offense, thus far, in the Preseason. The Jaguars have only mustered 10 points thru two games, while they have given up 53. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against Jacksonville tonight as a small underdog vs. Miami, especially given that the Dolphins are 2-0 ATS. But consider that, since 1992, NFL teams that have scored less than 14 points in their two previous preseason games have covered the spread 69% of the time (and 80.7% if their opponent wasn't undefeated in the preseason). And 0-2 teams have covered 70% since 1983 as an underdog (or PK) vs. teams that were undefeated ATS. Take Jacksonville. NFL Preseason Game of the Year. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-22-19 | Redskins -2.5 v. Falcons | Top | 19-7 | Win | 100 | 16 h 5 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Washington Redskins over the Atlanta Falcons. The Atlanta Falcons are 0-3 SU/ATS this preseason, and come into tonight's game installed as a home underdog vs. Washington, which is 0-2 SU/ATS. We'll lay the points with the Redskins, as NFL teams (like Atlanta) have been poor in their fourth preseason game, if they were 0-3 SU/ATS in their first three games. Indeed, since 1993, they've covered just 29.7% of the time, including just 13% ATS if their opponent was off back-to-back losses itself. Take Washington. NFL Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-22-19 | Panthers +3.5 v. Patriots | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -107 | 16 h 2 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers over the New England Patriots. The defending Super Bowl Champs come into tonight's game off back to back upset wins over Detroit and Tennessee. But off those two victories, we'll fade New England tonight, as defending Super Bowl Champs have covered the spread just one of 11 preseason games since 1983 off back to back wins when the line was 6 points or less. And road teams (like Carolina) off upset home losses in Week 2 have covered 70% since 1983 vs. foes off upset wins. Take the Panthers + the points. NFL Road Warrior Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
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08-22-19 | Indians +130 v. Mets | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 41 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the New York Mets. When the Indians look back on the 2019 regular season -- especially if they don't win the AL Central -- the game from last night will be one they wish they could have back. Late Wednesday, the Tribe took a 3-2 lead in the top of the 10th inning and then put normally reliable closer Brad Hand on the mound in the bottom of the inning for what seemed like a sure save. But Hand gave it up and the Mets walked off in front of their delirious home crowd. Now Cleveland reloads with rookie RH Aaron Civale set to make his fifth start of the season. The 24-year-old has made the most of his opportunity to join the Cleveland rotation in the wake of all the pitching injuries the team has endured. Civale has done little wrong so far, posting a 1.50 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 3.67 K:BB ratio in 24 innings. The Mets will go with veteran RH Noah Syndergaard in his 25th start of the season. For whatever reason, most of Syndergaard's struggles have come here at home this season, where he has a 4.23 ERA in 12 starts (vs. 3.49 on the road). Take Cleveland in an underdog role. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-21-19 | Brewers +101 v. Cardinals | Top | 5-3 | Win | 101 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
At 7:45 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the St. Louis Cardinals. After two part-time seasons in the Brewers bullpen -- with a two-year gap in between -- RHP Adrian Houser was not on anyone's radar coming into 2019. But after being more-or-less forced into action as a starter due to their numerous injuries, Houser is now an important part of Milwaukee's team as it prepares for a prolonged fight for the post-season down the stretch. The 26-year-old is 5-5 with a 3.76 ERA in 27 games -- including 10 starts -- coming into tonight. His ability to start games as well as fill in when needed in long relief should prove valuable over the final six weeks. The Cards will go with veteran RHP Adam Wainwright, who is having a so-so season at 9-8 with a 4.33 ERA in 23 starts so far. The Brewers look to salvage the last game of this three-game series and they are 7-2 in their last nine in the third game of a series after losing each of the first two. Meanwhile, despite their back-to-back victories over the Crew, the Cards are still just 2-5 in their last seven vs. teams with a winning record. Take Milwaukee. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-21-19 | Nationals -145 v. Pirates | Top | 11-1 | Win | 100 | 18 h 31 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Nationals over the Pittsburgh Pirates. If the Nats' management thought that the three relief pitchers they picked up at the trade deadline -- Strickland, Elias, Hudson -- would mean the end of their bullpen woes, then they better think again. Washington's pen once again ruined a great start -- this time from Stephen Strasburg -- as the Pirates scored four runs in the 8th inning to beat the Nats, 4-1, on Tuesday. Of course, if the Nats' offense had put up anywhere close to the number of runs they'd been producing lately, then four runs wouldn't have mattered. In their previous three games, DC plated a total of 43 runs -- a club record -- before falling flat last night. They'll reload for tonight as LHP Patrick Corbin takes the mound for the 26th time this season -- his first with Washington. Corbin has been a welcome addition to the rotation, going 9-5 with a 3.34 ERA, including a complete game shutout back on May 25. In his only other start vs. the Bucs this season, Corbin threw seven innings of one-run, four-hit ball with 11 strikeouts and one walk back on April 12. Take the Nats. |
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08-21-19 | Mariners v. Rays -285 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Seattle Mariners. When Charlie Morton left one of the best teams in baseball -- the Astros -- after the best season of his career and joined the Rays via free agency, there were probably only two people who thought he could improve on 2018: Morton and his Agent. But sure enough, 26 starts into the season and Morton is 13-5 (only two wins away from his 2018 total) with a career-best (and league-leading) 2.77 ERA in 156 innings. Start number 27 will come this afternoon at home against a Mariners team that is almost 20 games under .500 (54-73). Although his record at Tropicana Field is only .500 (6-6), Morton has a sparkling 2.86 ERA here in 15 starts covering just over 94 innings. And so far this season, Morton is 6-3 with a 2.50 ERA in 12 starts at his new home. He also won his only other start against the Mariners this season and he's 5-2 with a 2.93 ERA in 12 afternoon starts coming into today. Despite their victory here last night, the M's are just 8-26 in their last 34 road games vs. teams with a winning home record. Lay the big price with Tampa. |
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08-20-19 | Brewers -109 v. Cardinals | Top | 4-9 | Loss | -109 | 18 h 1 m | Show |
At 7:45 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the St. Louis Cardinals. There was little the Brewers' bats could do against the Cards' pitching Monday night as three St. Louis hurlers combined on a one-hitter in a 3-0 shutout. This is a huge series for both teams, but it's the Brew Crew who are feeling the pressure, now three games behind in the three-way NL Central race. Milwaukee will send LHP Gio Gonzalez to the mound for the 12th time this season. It is hoping that the veteran southpaw can recreate the magic he displayed after he came to the Brewers at the end of last August. In his five 2018 starts after the trade from the Nationals, Gonzalez went 3-0 with a 2.13 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in just over 25 innings. Re-signed as a free agent after being released by the Yankees at the end of April, Gonzalez has been solid so far with a 2-1 record and 3.81 ERA in his 11 starts. His only other start against the Cards as a member of the Brewers -- last September -- resulted in a lopsided 12-4 Milwaukee victory. The Brew Crew is 7-1 in Gio's last eight starts vs. winning teams and 4-1 in his last five on the road. Take Milwaukee. MLB Road Warrior of the Month!  As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-19-19 | 49ers v. Broncos -1 | Top | 24-15 | Loss | -125 | 160 h 1 m | Show |
At 8 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Denver Broncos minus the points over the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers opened their preseason last weekend with a 17-9 victory over the Dallas Cowboys, while Denver was upset, 22-14, as a 2-point favorite at Seattle. Unfortunately for San Francisco, since 1983, teams that opened the Preseason with a win have gone 0-8-1 ATS in their next game if they played on Monday Night Football away from home, and were matched up against an opponent off a straight-up loss. Meanwhile, the Broncos are a stupendous 12-0 SU/ATS in the Preseason off an upset loss since 2002 (and 19-2-1 ATS since 1983). Lay the points with Denver. NFL Preseason Monday Night Football Game of the Year! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-19-19 | Brewers +120 v. Cardinals | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 43 m | Show |
At 7:45 pm, our selection is on the Milwakee Brewers over the St. Louis Cardinals. After scoring just one run in on Friday night in DC, the Brewers exploded and plated 23 in the final two games of the series. They come into this critical series in St. Louis hoping they can continue their production at the plate. Two young righthanders with very similar numbers will face each other tonight in this NL Central Match-up. The Home team sends Dakota Hudson and his 11-6 record and 3.85 ERA to the mound while the Crew comes in with Zach Davies who is 8-5 with a 3.74 ERA in his 23 starts. In four previous career starts here, Davies has no record, but he has a solid 3.68 ERA with 15 strikeouts and just four walks in 22 innings. On the other side, Hudson has five appearances against the Brewers -- including two starts -- and he is 0-1 with a 7.15 ERA in just over 11 innings. The Brewers are 19-13 (+14 games on the money line (+43.75% ROI)) as a road underdog with Davies starting in his career. Take Milwaukee. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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08-18-19 | Saints +3 v. Chargers | Top | 19-17 | Win | 105 | 132 h 0 m | Show |
At 4 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints + the points over the Los Angeles Chargers. This is a rematch of last year's Preseason contest which was won, in convincing fashion, 36-7, by New Orleans. We used the Saints in last year's game as our #1 Play of last year's Preseason, and we will take the Saints once again. It's true that the Saints opened the Preseason with a 34-25 home loss to the Vikings. But the Vikings have put an emphasis on Week 1 Preseason games under coach Mike Zimmer, as they're 6-0 SU/ATS since he became head coach, so there's no great shame in losing last week to Minnesota. The Chargers, in contrast, have not fared well in the Preseason under coach Anthony Lynn, as they're 3-6 SU/ATS, including a 17-13 defeat at Arizona last week. Since 1985, road underdogs have cashed 61% off a loss in which they gave up more than 31 points. That bodes well for New Orleans. As does the fact that the Saints are a fantastic 44-20-2 ATS on the road in the Preseason. Take New Orleans + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-18-19 | Indians -127 v. Yankees | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the New York Yankees. LHP CC Sabathia has been nursing a sore knee since the end of July, which was his third trip to the IL this season. The Yankees' rotation depth -- or lack thereof -- means that Sabathia is still a regular member of the starting five when he's healthy, despite a very sub-par campaign so far (5-6 with a 4.78 ERA). The 39-year-old will get his 18th start of the season this afternoon and it will be against an Indians lineup that's capable of putting up a ton of runs (e.g., 19 in the case of Thursday's game). The Tribe will turn to one of its most reliable starters of late as RHP Mike Clevinger goes to the hill for his 13th start. Like Sabathia, Clevinger has spent some considerable time on the IL this season. But unlike him, he has been on fire since returning the last time on June 28. Particularly impressive is what Clevinger has done in his four road starts since coming back, allowing six earned runs on 20 hits in 27 innings (a 2.00 ERA). Clevinger's only other start at Yankee Stadium was also a good one -- two runs on one hit in 7 1/3 innings last May. Take the Tribe. MLB Elite Info Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-18-19 | Padres v. Phillies +106 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the San Diego Padres. It doesn't get more dramatic than what took place here at Citizens Bank Park on Thursday night. Down by five runs entering the bottom of the ninth, the Phillies came back with six runs -- highlighted by a Bryce Harper walk-off grand slam -- to beat the Cubs. Perhaps that will help motivate this team which, despite being five games over .500, still seems to be struggling to find its groove. The Phillies picked up a veteran LHP in Jason Vargas from the Mets at the trade deadline and, although he's given them some quality innings in his three starts since coming over, the 36-year-old is still looking for his first win in a Phillies uniform. That could come today against a mostly over-matched Padres club which is starting to look towards next season at this point. Vargas has a winning record vs. San Diego, going 3-2 with a 4.00 ERA in six career starts vs. the Padres. In fact, the last one came just two starts before he was shipped off from the Mets, as Vargas threw six one-hit, shutout innings on July 23 in a 5-2 NYM win over SD. Take the Phillies. MLB High Roller Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-17-19 | Mets -202 v. Royals | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Kansas City Royals. Jacob deGrom will toe the rubber for the Mets tonight, and he's been as consistent as any pitcher in the game. Over his last 15 starts, he's given up 2 earned runs or less in 14 of those 15 games. For the season, his ERA is 2.68, with a WHIP of 1.06. And it's 1.42 and 0.94 over his last 3 outings. Jake Junis will get the ball for the Royals and, unlike deGrom, his ERA is approaching five runs a game (4.80), and is north of five runs a game at home (5.64). The Royals have been at their worst as a big underdog, as they're 23-65 (minus 20 games on the money line), when priced from +175 to +250. Take the Mets. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-17-19 | Browns v. Colts -3 | Top | 21-18 | Loss | -110 | 108 h 59 m | Show |
At 4 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts minus the points over the Cleveland Browns. The Browns won their Preseason home opener last week in blowout fashion, 30-10, over Washington. Meanwhile, the Colts were upset on the road, 24-16, by the Buffalo Bills. But I love Indianapolis to bounce back at home on this Saturday. Indeed, teams have covered 70% since 1983 in their Preseason home openers off an upset loss, if they're matched up against an opponent off a SU/ATS win in their home opener.  Additionally, the Browns are a horrid 1-8 ATS in the Preseason off a double-digit win, while the Colts are 7-2-1 ATS vs. foes off a 20+ point victory. Take Indianapolis. NFL Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-17-19 | Cubs -140 v. Pirates | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
At 1:35 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Pittsburgh Pirates. It's LHP Steven Brault's fourth season in the Majors -- all of those with the Pirates. In his rookie campaign, Brault made most of his appearances as a starter, but after that, he switched to the bullpen. Now the 27-year-old southpaw is back in the rotation, having made 11 of his 17 appearances as a starter this season. His ERA may be the best that it's been since he came into the league, but at 4.33, Brault is still a work in progress for Pittsburgh. The biggest problem for Brault has been his walk rate, as the former 11th round draft pick of the Orioles has issued 36 free passes in 70 2/3 innings (a 4.6 walk rate). Veteran LHP Jon Lester will go for the Cubs and although Lester's numbers are not what they've been the past several seasons, the 35-year-old southpaw is still dangerous. And it doesn't hurt his chances that Lester is 10-6 with a 3.18 ERA in 20 career starts vs. the Bucs. The Pirates are also just 2-10 in their last 12 home games. Take Chicago. |
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08-17-19 | Indians +146 v. Yankees | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the New York Yankees. This is a great pitching match-up today in the Bronx. James Paxton will start for the Yankees, and he's won his last three starts (2.89 ERA; 0.96 WHIP). But, not to be outdone, Cleveland starter Zach Plesac is 3-0 in his last seven starts, and the Indians have won all seven of those games (3.11 ERA). It's true that Plesac has been installed as an underdog this afternoon, but the Indians have gone 4-1 in his five underdog starts this season. Meanwhile, Paxton has burned money as a favorite this season (and also in his career). And as a home favorite of -150 (or more), his teams have gone 17-18 (minus 18 games on the money line). The Indians are 25-14 vs. lefties, 9-4 their last 13 as underdogs, and 44-20 their last 64 overall. Take the Indians. |
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08-16-19 | Astros -187 v. A's | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -187 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Oakland Athletics. In one of the biggest upsets ever (and the biggest upset on record over the last 15 years), the Astros lost to the Orioles five days ago with their ace, Justin Verlander, on the mound as a -475 favorite (some books had Houston favored by -525). If that won't motivate you to come back in your next start, then nothing will. Verlander goes to the hill tonight in Oakland, and he loves pitching there, as he is 8-4 with a 2.65 ERA in 13 starts covering just over 88 innings at the Coliseum. And the other thing about the future Hall of Fame pitcher is the fact that Verlander gets stronger as the season progresses. The 36-year-old is 100-55 (.645) with a 3.25 ERA in 193 starts after the break compared with 119-72 (.623) with a 3.44 ERA in 251 starts before. The A's rank 13th in the American League in hitting vs. right-handers, batting just .239 vs. them this season. And they're 16-40 in the last 56 meetings with Astros overall, and 7-21 in the last 28 meetings in Oakland. Take Houston. MLB Road Warrior Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-16-19 | Giants v. Diamondbacks -128 | Top | 10-9 | Loss | -128 | 15 h 48 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over the San Francisco Giants. These two teams -- neither of which will make the post-season barring a miracle -- have identical records after 122 games (61-61). The Giants got the bragging rights on Thursday, shutting out the D-Backs by a lopsided 7-0 score. Tonight it will be veteran RHP Jeff Samardzija going for the Giants in his 25th start of the season. The D-Backs will counter with veteran RHP Mike Leake. Leake was acquired by Arizona at the trade deadline from Seattle and, although he's struggled in his first two Diamondbacks starts, he has plenty of time to turn it around to post some solid numbers with his new club. The 31-year-old has faced the Giants 11 times in his career (10 starts) -- mostly from his time in Cincinnati. And although the ERA is a bit high at 4.62, he has a 5-2 record against them in just over 64 innings. The Giants are 2-7 in their last nine games following a win, and Samardzija's teams are a horrid 33-59 behind him when he's worked on an extra day or two of rest, as well as 16-28 after he allowed two earned runs or less in each of his two previous starts. Take Arizona. |
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08-16-19 | Bears +2.5 v. Giants | Top | 13-32 | Loss | -110 | 87 h 28 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Chicago Bears over the New York Giants. The Giants opened their Preseason with a nice 31-22 home win over their cross-town rivals, the Jets. The Giants will now welcome the Bears into the Meadowlands. And Chicago should be in an ornery mood after losing its home opener, 23-13, to Carolina. We will fade the Giants, as they've covered just 17 of their last 54 as a Preseason favorite/PK, including 0 of 7 since 2016. Moreover, NFL teams have cashed just 39% in the Preseason as a home favorite off a win in their home opener, if they're matched up against a foe off a SU loss. Take the Bears. NFL Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-16-19 | Dodgers v. Braves -112 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Pittsburgh Pirates. Last night, the Cubs lost a game that they led 5-0 after 7 innings. Unfortunately, they gave up 1 in the eighth, and six in the ninth -- capped by a Bryce Harper grand slam -- to fall to the Phillies, 7-5. That dropped Chicago's record to 64-57 on the season, and it is now in a virtual tie with the Cardinals for the NL Central division lead (with Milwaukee just one game behind). The Cubs will attempt to bounce back tonight when they visit the cellar-dwelling Pirates. The Buccos are an awful 2-9 their last 11, and 6-25 their last 31. Yikes! It's true that Kyle Hendricks had his worst start in over a year his last time out (vs. Cincinnati). But before that shellacking, he had been on a great streak where he gave up 2 runs or less over seven straight games (2.34 ERA; 0.96 WHIP). I view his last outing more as an anomaly than anything else, and I love Hendricks to rebound tonight. Take the Cubs. |
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08-16-19 | Cubs -133 v. Pirates | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -133 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Pittsburgh Pirates. Last night, the Cubs lost a game that they led 5-0 after 7 innings. Unfortunately, they gave up 1 in the eighth, and six in the ninth -- capped by a Bryce Harper grand slam -- to fall to the Phillies, 7-5. That dropped Chicago's record to 64-57 on the season, and it is now in a virtual tie with the Cardinals for the NL Central division lead (with Milwaukee just one game behind). The Cubs will attempt to bounce back tonight when they visit the cellar-dwelling Pirates. The Buccos are an awful 2-9 their last 11, and 6-25 their last 31. Yikes! It's true that Kyle Hendricks had his worst start in over a year his last time out (vs. Cincinnati). But before that shellacking, he had been on a great streak where he gave up 2 runs or less over seven straight games (2.34 ERA; 0.96 WHIP). I view his last outing more as an anomaly than anything else, and I love Hendricks to rebound tonight. Take the Cubs. |
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08-15-19 | Mets +114 v. Braves | Top | 10-8 | Win | 114 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Atlanta Braves. The Mets were five games under .500 (50-55) and 11 games out of first place on July 28 when they acquired RHP Marcus Stroman from Toronto. So naturally, that move -- when many thought the Mets would be sellers and not buyers -- raised a lot of eyebrows. But there appeared to be a method to the madness as New York has gone 12-4 since then and is now only a 1/2 game out of the NL Wild Card. Stroman gets his 24th start of the season (third with the Mets) tonight and although it hasn't been pretty so far with his new team, Stroman's ERA is still solid and he boasts one of the lowest HR rates of any pitcher in the league right now. RHP Julio Teheran goes for the Braves and he's struggled recently against the Mets. In his last two starts against them (both this season), Teheran is 0-1 and has allowed eight earned runs on 13 hits in 7 1/3 innings. In contrast, Stroman has two previous starts vs. Atlanta and he is 2-0 with an outrageous 0.71 ERA in just under 13 innings. Finally, the Mets are 6-1 in their last seven road games vs. LH starters. Take New York. MLB Underdog of the Month. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-15-19 | Cubs -139 v. Phillies | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -139 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Philadelphia Phillies. It's been a topsy-turvy season for Cubs RHP Yu Darvish. The 32-year-old came out of a gate with three consecutive months of an ERA right around five runs and he posted just two wins in his first 17 starts. But then Darvish started to settle down, winning just as many games (2) in his next seven starts, while lowering his ERA more than 1/2 run to 4.43. And his WHIP this season is a very strong 1.18. Darvish's only other start as a Cub against the Phillies was earlier this season when he registered a quality start on May 20, allowing three runs on four hits in six innings. Even better: for his career, his ERA vs. Philadelphia is 1.96, with a 0.98 WHIP. The Phillies picked up southpaw pitcher Drew Smyly as free agent back on July 21. Smyly has a 3.83 ERA in four starts since joining the Phillies, which is not bad considering he sports an ugly 1-5 record along with an 8.43 ERA in 13 games (nine starts) overall in 2019. Still, we will go against Smyly tonight, and fade Philly off its blowout win last night, as the Phillies are 1-5 in their last six games following a victory. And they're a wallet-busting 8-28 this year vs. pitchers with a WHIP of 1.25 or better. Take the Cubbies. MLB High Roller Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-14-19 | Cubs +108 v. Phillies | Top | 1-11 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 30 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Philadelphia Phillies. Tonight will be LHP Cole Hamels' first start in Philly since he left there mid-way through the 2015 season. Hamels didn't visit Citizens Bank Park during his years with Texas, and he hasn't been there as a member of the Cubs either (until tonight). After a losing campaign in 2018 (9-12 with a 3.78 ERA in 32 starts), Hamels has rebounded nicely this season. Through his first 19 starts, the 35-year-old is 6-3 with a 3.09 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in just under 108 innings. If Hamels was the old guard when he left the Phillies, RHP Aaron Nola is the new. Nola definitely has the stuff to be an ace, but he's struggled in his career against the Cubs. In four starts against Chicago covering 24 2/3 innings, Nola has an ugly 5.11 ERA. And in his only home start against them (last September), he allowed four runs in 5 2/3 innings in an 8-1 blowout loss. Chicago is 13-5 in Hamels' last 18 starts and 9-2 in his last 11 vs. teams with a winning record. Take the Cubs. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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08-14-19 | Twins v. Brewers -103 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Minnesota Twins. The Brewers collapsed in the 8th inning last night when Josh Hader gave up a 2-out, 3-run Home Run to Marwin Gonzalez, and fell, 7-5, to the Twins. This afternoon affair will pit Twins RHP Kyle Gibson against Milwaukee southpaw Gio Gonzalez. We will go against Minnesota, as Gibson has struggled vs. Milwaukee. He's made five starts, with his teams winning just once, and his ERA in those games was 5.70. Even worse: the Twins have been under water this season vs. lefty starters, as they're 14-13 (minus 2.4 games on the money line), compared to 58-34 (+17.4 games on the money line) vs. righties. And they're 7-9 (minus 2.4 games on the money line) vs. the National League (compared to 65-38, +17.4 games on the money line vs. the American League). Gio Gonzalez has been strong this season for Milwaukee, as his ERA is 3.20, with a 1.16 WHIP. And in his last three starts, his ERA is 2.29 and his WHIP is 0.95. The Brewers are 98-55 (+19 games on the money line) as a home favorite. Take Milwaukee. Interleague Game of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-12-19 | Diamondbacks +104 v. Rockies | Top | 8-6 | Win | 104 | 20 h 46 m | Show |
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over Colorado. The Rockies won yesterday, but the wins have been few and far between for them since the end of June, and they currently sit in last place in the NL West Division. They're 9-26 their last 35 games (since June 30) and are also 2-11 off a win (since June 21). Of course, when you keep trotting Peter Lambert out to the mound every five days, it's not surprising that your team isn't winning. The Rockies are 1-8 in his last nine starts. And he's given up 40 runs, and put on 77 baserunners in 43 innings over this stretch (8.37 ERA; 1.79 WHIP). Tonight, Lambert will face Merrill Kelly and the Diamondbacks, and have been installed as a small favorite, as of this writing. That bodes well for the D-Backs, who are an awesome 79-56 as an underdog priced from +100 to +150 (+41 games on the money line). And Arizona's also 23-16 (+11 games on the money line) in nighttime road games. The Diamondbacks are now 3 games out of the playoff picture, with 44 games remaining, so they know they have to take advantage of these games vs. cellar-dwelling teams. Take Arizona. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-12-19 | Red Sox -110 v. Indians | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 1 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Cleveland Indians. If the Red Sox can somehow make the playoffs and they award a team MVP for the season, they just might want to consider giving it to LHP Eduardo Rodriguez. Sure, the ERA is a little high at 4.17 and the walk rate is up while the strikeout rate is down from last season. But all E-Rod knows how to do, it seems, is win. He will almost certainly break his personal mark for victories in a season (13) as he sits with a 13-5 record coming into tonight's critical game in Cleveland. And although he's only faced them twice in his career, Rodriguez doesn't seem to mind pitching against the Indians. In those two prior starts, E-Rod is 1-0 with a 2.63 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in just under 14 innings. Rookie Zach Plesac gets his 14th start for the Tribe. He's pitched well this season, but six of his last eight starts have come against the Orioles, Tigers (twice), and Royals (three), so it's a step-up in class tonight. The Sox are 4-1 in their last five games vs. AL Central teams. And they are 6-0 in Rodriguez's last six vs. the Central, and 15-3 in his last 18 nighttime starts. Take Boston. MLB Road Warrior Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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08-11-19 | Diamondbacks +200 v. Dodgers | Top | 3-9 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over the Los Angeles Dodgers.  Yesterday, we had a big play on the Dodgers with Kenta Maeda vs. Alex Young but today we're going to switch gears, and play on the huge road underdog.  Despite the fact that L.A. is 10-0 in Ryu's home starts this season, we're going with Arizona and newly-acquired RHP Mike Leake. Leake has always been a durable starter, which is a big reason why he's always been a much-sought-after trade target, it seems, every year. Indeed, since 2012, Leake has started at least 30 games every season, and he's once again headed to that number again in 2019. Leake's first start for the D-Backs on August 6 (against the Phillies) was pretty good. Arizona won the game and, in fact, Leake's teams have now won each of his last four starts. Meanwhile, Ryu comes into today's game off a stint on the Injured List because of a sore neck. He also landed on the Injured List back in April for a groin injury. Unfortunately, Ryu's first start upon his return from that injury was a 5-0 setback on April 20 to the Brewers. I'm generally not a fan of playing on pitchers (especially big favorites) in their initial start after being injured. And I love Arizona as a big underdog today. Take the D-Backs. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-11-19 | Cubs +122 v. Reds | Top | 6-3 | Win | 122 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds have been a bit of a thorn in the side of the Cubs lately, taking five of the last nine meetings including a 5-2 victory on Saturday. Chicago will try to get some revenge this afternoon, sending LH Jon Lester to the mound for his 23rd start of the season. Lester led the league with 18 victories in 2018. And although he won't reach that number this season, he is still a valuable member of the Cubs' rotation with a 9-8 record and 4.39 ERA coming into this afternoon's start. Lester has a 3.53 ERA in eight career starts at Great America Park, and this season he has really benefited from daytime outings. In 13 starts under the lights, Lester is 5-5 with a 5.13 ERA. However in nine afternoon starts, he is 4-3 with a 3.28 ERA in just under 50 innings. And Lester has also had quality starts in three of his last four outings vs. the Reds, while the Cubs are 4-1 in his last five vs. Cincy. And his teams have won 14 of 17 vs. the Reds in his career. Take the Cubs. |
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08-11-19 | Yankees -169 v. Blue Jays | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Toronto Blue Jays. Yankees RHP Masahiro Tanaka was cruising along with a very good season until a start against the Red Sox in London on June 29. That turned out to be the veteran Japanese pitcher's shortest (and worst) start of the season and Tanaka's campaign since then has been a real struggle. But if there's anything that could possibly turn Tanaka's second half around, it is likely a start against the Blue Jays. In 19 career starts vs. Toronto, Tanaka is 12-5 with a 2.88 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in just under 116 innings. Those 12 victories represent the most that Tanaka has logged against any MLB club. And the Yankees are 4-1 in Tanaka's last five starts vs. the Jays going back to September of 2017.  Despite his recent struggles, the Yanks are still 14-9 in Tanaka's starts this season and 9-1 in his last 10 trips to the hill. New York is also 18-6 in Tanaka's last 24 road starts vs. teams with a losing record. Take the Yankees. |
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08-10-19 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -178 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 18 h 57 m | Show |
At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over Arizona. Los Angeles lost a heartbreaker in extra innings last night. It looked like L.A. was going to take Game 1 of this series, as it had a 2-0 lead going into the 9th inning. But Arizona's Carson Kelly tied the game up with a 2-run HR off Kenley Jansen, and then he finished the job in the 11th inning with a solo shot off Julio Urias. I love L.A to bounce back, as the Dodgers have been spectacular at home this season, with a 46-16 record (+18 games on the money line). And Kenta Maeda has also been at his best in Chavez Ravine, as he's 5-3 in 10 home starts, with a 3.22 ERA and a sparkling 0.92 WHIP! Take Los Angeles. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-10-19 | Indians v. Twins -135 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 18 h 48 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Cleveland Indians. Jake Odorizzi is having a breakout campaign in his second season with the Twins. The 29-year-old RH is 12-5 with a 3.61 ERA in 22 starts so far. And those 12 victories represent a career high. His attempt for win number 13 is perhaps his most important start of the season so far. That's because the Indians -- who were once far behind the Twins -- are now tied with them in the race for the AL Central Division title. In two previous starts vs. Cleveland this season, Odorizzi has only allowed two earned runs on four hits in 11 1/3 innings (a 1.59 ERA). And Minnesota is 15-4 in Odorizzi's last 19 starts overall, 8-2 in his last 10 at home, 5-1 in his last six vs. AL Central opponents, and 5-0 in his last five following a quality start in his last outing. The Tribe had oft-injured starter Danny Salazar back -- finally -- but his return lasted only one start, and now Salazar is back on the IL with a groin injury. Enter -- once again -- RHP Adam Plutko. The Indians' soft-tosser has just 36 strikeouts in 59 1/3 innings and that could spell real trouble against the home run-happy Minnesota lineup. The Twins lead the Majors with 224 round trippers. With the Twins having lost four straight (the last two to tonight's opponent) and finally having the Tribe catch up to them, I expect Minnesota to rise to the occasion tonight. Take Minnesota. AL Central Game of the Year! As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-10-19 | Cubs -105 v. Reds | Top | 1-10 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 57 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Cincinnati Reds. Cubs veteran RHP Kyle Hendricks' overall numbers this season may only seem merely "good" (8-8 with a 3.06 ERA in 21 starts), but over his last three starts, Hendricks has been outstanding. The 29-year-old is 1-0 (the Cubs are 2-1) with a 0.98 ERA and 0.76 WHIP over those last three outings covering 18 1/3 innings. Start number 22 will come tonight against a team which Hendricks has dominated in his career. In 16 starts vs. the Reds, Hendricks is 6-2 with a very solid 3.29 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. The Cubs are also 15-5 in Hendricks' last 20 starts following a quality start in his last outing. Take Chicago. MLB Road Warrior Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-10-19 | Nationals +101 v. Mets | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 56 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Washington Nationals over the New York Mets.  After sweeping the Giants in San Francisco, the Nats came into Queens last night and fell flat in the first game of this series against the Mets. But that's somewhat to be expected after a grueling six-game west coast road trip. Look for the visitors to be better prepared and rested tonight as LHP Patrick Corbin takes the mound for his 24th start of the season. Corbin signed a huge six-year free agent contract with the Nationals in the off-season and, so far at least, the 30-year-old has not disappointed. Corbin is 9-5 with a 3.43 ERA in 23 starts in his first year in DC and that's not bad considering he is a #3 starter behind aces Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg. Corbin has also done well against the Nats' division opponents, as Washington is 6-1 in his last seven starts vs. the NL East. The Mets will go with RHP Noah Syndergaard and they are a poor 1-4 in his last five home starts vs. Washington. Finally, the Nationals are 54-26 in the last 80 meetings in New York. Take Washington. |
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08-10-19 | Rangers +185 v. Brewers | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over Milwaukee. In this interleague match-up between the Rangers and Brewers, we'll take the road team, and go against Milwaukee's Adrian Houser. The Brewers have lost six of his eight starts this season (he's 0-5 in those eight games), and Houser has a 6.82 ERA in those eight games. Yikes! Even worse: the Brewers are a wallet-busting 5-9 (minus 7 games on the money line) this season in interleague games, while the Rangers are 31-27 (plus 9 games on the money line) their last 58 interleague contests. Take Texas. |
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08-09-19 | Rays -124 v. Mariners | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Seattle Mariners. Known for their use of "openers" -- a strategy which started last season -- the Rays have to reach even deeper into their bag of pitching tricks with Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow on the DL. Enter LHP Jalen Beeks. Beeks is a middle reliever who only had one previous start this season -- an ugly effort that lasted 3 2/3 innings back on July 22. But that was against the Red Sox and since Beeks has been quite effective out of the bullpen for the Rays, they're going to give him another shot tonight in a much softer spot against the 48-68 Mariners, in pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park. Beeks is 5-1 with a 3.77 ERA so it would seem he's earned this chance at another start. Seattle LHP Marco Gonzales has had his second straight successful season as a full-time starter, going 12-9 with a 4.32 ERA in 24 starts so far. But his ERA here at home is almost a full run higher (4.76) than it is on the road (3.88). And the Mariners are 1-5 in their last six games overall, and 1-5 in Gonzales' last six vs. teams from the American League East. Take Tampa. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-09-19 | Pirates v. Cardinals -134 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 18 h 17 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Pittsburgh Pirates. Chris Archer joined the Pirates in the second half of last season in a trade which sent Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows to Tampa Bay. The veteran RH had all kinds of promise with the Rays, but could just never harness it and reach the potential that so many thought he had. So he became the Pirates' latest reclamation project. The Bucs have a way of taking veteran starters and turning them around (think Edinson Volquez, Ivan Nova, Francisco Liriano, AJ Burnett). But for whatever reason, it hasn't happened with Archer. After an okay 2018 stint (3-3; 4.30 ERA in 10 starts), Archer has regressed significantly this season and is just 3-8 with a 5.35 ERA in 20 starts. And although his numbers are not bad at home this season (3-4; 3.98), they absolutely stink on the road, where he's yet to win a game (0-4; 7.14 in nine starts). The Cards will go with RHP Dakota Hudson who, although he has the same record as Archer (3-8), has a very nice 3.98 ERA in his 22 starts. Finally, Pittsburgh is a wallet-busting 8-20 in the last 28 meetings with St. Louis. Take the Cards. |
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08-09-19 | Braves -140 v. Marlins | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 17 h 11 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Miami Marlins. There is no bigger enigma among MLB starters than the Braves' RHP Julio Teheran. Teheran hasn't had a winning season since 2015 (four seasons ago) and yet he is four games over .500 (73-69) for his career. And in the seasons in which he's had the fewest wins (2016 and this season so far), Teheran puts up his best ERAs of the past five years (3.21 in 2016 and 3.46 this season). He rarely strings back-to-back victories together (last time was June 8 & 13), although the Braves have won four of his starts in a row on two separate occasions this season. But one thing that he has been consistently good at throughout his career is pitching in Miami. In 12 starts here, Teheran is 6-4 with a 3.22 ERA in just under 73 innings. And after a 1-0 blanking over them on July 5, the Braves have now won each of Teheran's last four starts vs. the Fish going back to July of last season. Atlanta is also 37-16 in the last 53 meetings with Miami while the Marlins are 1-5 in LHP Caleb Smith's last six starts vs. winning teams. Take the Braves. |
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08-08-19 | Falcons +3.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 27-34 | Loss | -104 | 89 h 37 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons + the points over Miami. The Falcons were winning last Thursday for much of the 2nd half, but lost, 14-10, in the waning moments on a deflected 15-yard touchdown pass. The silver lining for Atlanta was that it out-yarded Denver, 261-188. And I love the Falcons to bounce back as a road underdog in this week's game, at Miami. The Falcons have a big advantage just by playing in last week's Hall of Fame Game. Indeed, since 1983, underdogs off a preseason loss have covered 68% vs. foes playing their first preseason game. Take the Falcons. NFL Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-08-19 | Angels v. Red Sox -245 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 23 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Los Angeles Angels. Chris Sale's prayers have apparently been answered. After his last three starts came against the Rays and Yankees (last two), Sale gets a reprieve with a home outing against the team that he's perhaps dominated more than any other in his career. In nine appearances -- including seven starts -- against the Halos, Sale is 6-0 with a sparkling 1.23 ERA and 0.72 WHIP in just over 51 innings. This will be Sale's first start of the season against the Angels, and no doubt with the type of season he's had to this point, he is very much looking forward to it.  The Angels are winless in their last six overall, 0-5 in their last five road games, 0-6 in their last six vs. the Sox, and 3-8 in the last 11 meetings with them in Fenway. Despite their recent struggles, the Red Sox are a super 42-17 in their last 59 home games vs. teams with a losing record, and 80-22 (+26 games on the money line) when favored by -200+. Meanwhile, the Angels are an awful 52-88 (minus 29 games on the money line) vs. winning foes. Take Boston. Mound Mismatch Massacre! As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-07-19 | Phillies +130 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 47 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Arizona Diamondbacks. Perhaps the bad news for Phillies fans at the trade deadline -- although this remains to be seen -- is that the only starters they picked up were Drew Smyly and Jason Vargas. The good news is that they really didn't give up anything to get these two veteran southpaws. So it was a pair of low-risk moves for them which keeps their deep minor league pipeline intact. It will be Vargas getting his 20th start of the season tonight. His first Phillies start was very good -- a 6 1/3 inning quality outing in which he allowed just two runs on five hits with five strikeouts and one walk against the White Sox last Friday. Vargas is a work-horse who should give the Phils plenty of innings the rest of the way as they try to reach the post-season for the first time in almost a decade (2011). Despite the loss last night, the Phillies are still 5-2 in their last seven road games vs. teams with losing records. Take Philadelphia. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-07-19 | Royals v. Red Sox -280 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 19 h 4 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Kansas City Royals. With a 13-5 ledger, Red Sox southpaw starter Eduardo Rodriguez has the exact same record he posted in 2018. The difference of course is that E-Rod has probably seven more starts left this season. Number 24 will come tonight against the Royals in Fenway where he's 6-1 with a 3.92 ERA in 11 starts this season. The biggest thing going for Rodriguez tonight is the fact that he's pitching against the Royals. KC is the worst hitting team vs. left-handers in the American League this season. Let's take a look at some of the Royals' numbers: .235 BA, .297 OBP, and .677 OPS vs. southpaws in 2019. Moreover, the Royals are just 2-8 in the last 10 meetings with the Sox while Boston is 24-3 in Rodriguez's last 27 starts vs. teams with a losing record. The Sox are also 11-1 in Rodriguez's last 12 starts vs. teams from the American League Central. Take the Red Sox. |
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08-07-19 | Braves v. Twins -103 | Top | 11-7 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Atlanta Braves. Two lefty starters -- one a veteran and one a youngster -- will go to the mound opposite each other this afternoon in the final game of this interleague series, which just happens to be all knotted up at a game apiece. The veteran will go for the home team as Martin Perez gets his 20th start of the season for Minnesota. Perez's ERA has been a bit high (4.58), but you can't argue with his 8-4 record so far. Obviously, he's been the beneficiary of the extraordinary offense that his team has produced this season. Perez has pitched better throughout his career in the afternoon (19-18; 4.38) than he has under the lights (32-35; 4.74). And he's enjoyed his new home park (4-2; 4.35 in 12 games) more than he's liked being on the road this season (4-2; 4.91). Despite their road win on Tuesday night, the Braves are just 5-9 in their last 14 interleague games, while the Twins are 5-2 in their last seven interleague home games vs. teams with a winning record. And the Twins are also 25-11 this season when favored by -150 or less. Take Minnesota. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-06-19 | Cardinals +172 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Los Angeles Dodgers. When Miles Mikolas went 18-4 with a 2.83 ERA in 32 starts last season -- his first in the Majors since 2014 -- he took everyone except perhaps himself by surprise. After a season like that -- Mikolas finished sixth in the NL Cy Young voting -- it is certainly not surprising for the 30-year-old RH to have a regression in 2019. But after monthly ERAs of 5.29 (April), 3.57 (May), and 4.15 (June), Mikolas had his best month in five July starts, posting a 2.93 ERA in 30 2/3 innings. He will try to keep it going in August as Mikolas gets his first start of the season at pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium tonight against the best team in the NL. The good news for him and the Cards tonight is that St. Louis is 6-1 in Mikolas' last seven starts vs. NL West teams, 13-3 in his last 16 starts following a team loss in their previous game, and 12-4 in his last 16 starts vs. teams with a winning record. Take the Cards. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-06-19 | A's +127 v. Cubs | Top | 11-4 | Win | 127 | 18 h 46 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Chicago Cubs. Monday's Game 1 of this series featured a little bit of everything, including a home run by Oakland's Nick Martini with a big group of family watching from the bleachers (Martini is from nearby Crystal Lake, IL). And with Craig Kimbrel placed on the IL, the Cubs experimented with a slew of options in the late innings before David Phelps finally got the last out to preserve a one-run victory. Tonight will feature a pair of veteran southpaws as Jon Lester gets the start for the home team while Brett Anderson goes for the A's. That bodes well for Oakland, as it's 19-7 vs. lefty starters this season. It's true that Anderson posted 11 wins in his rookie season as a 21-year-old in 2009 and hasn't matched that total since. However, he's 9-7 with a 4.04 ERA in 22 starts this season, and will likely best those 11 victories from a decade ago.  The good news for tonight is that, although he pitches in one of the most pitcher-friendly home parks, Anderson has done by far his work this season on the road. In 11 starts away from Oakland, Anderson is 5-2 with a 3.49 ERA (vs. 4-5 and 4.65 in 11 at home). And his road success leads us to this stat: The A's are a perfect 6-0 this season as a road underdog with him on the mound. Take the A's. MLB Road Warrior Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-05-19 | Nationals +113 v. Giants | Top | 4-0 | Win | 113 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
At 9:45 pm, our selection is on the Washington Nationals over the San Francisco Giants. With their ace Max Scherzer still on the shelf with a strained back muscle, RHP Erick Fedde will get another start for the Nats tonight -- his 10th of the season. It's somewhat lost in his 1-2 record and 4.67 ERA that Fedde was a 1st round draft pick of the Nats back in 2014 out of UNLV. Every start is critical for the team right now, as DC tied with the Phillies -- seven games behind the Division-leading Braves. The Giants will go with RH Jeff Samardzija. And although the veteran has had a resurgence this season after back-to-back disappointing campaigns, the Giants are just 6-16 in Samardzija's last 22 starts vs. teams with a winning record. Take the Nationals. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-05-19 | Phillies -102 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 37 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Arizona Diamondbacks. The last time we saw Phillies RH pitcher Vince Velasquez, he was playing right field in the 15-inning game against the White Sox on Friday night. And not only was he playing the outfield, but Velasquez was starring out there, throwing out Jose Abreu at the plate and then almost repeating the feat an inning later (and also making a diving catch just for good measure). But despite his heroics, the 27-year-old is back where he belongs tonight -- on the mound. Velasquez will get his 14th start of the season tonight and it will come against the D-Backs as the Phils embark on a week-long west-coast road trip. Velasquez's career numbers vs. Arizona are solid (3.93 ERA), and the Phillies are 10-3 in his last 13 starts on grass, and 7-1 in their last eight games following a loss. Take Philadelphia. |
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08-05-19 | Braves -102 v. Twins | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -102 | 18 h 7 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Minnesota Twins. In what is a possible World Series Preview, the Braves come into Minneapolis for the first time since 2016 for a three-game, inter-league series with the Twins. Game 1 will feature two of these teams' best RH starters this season as the Braves' Mike Soroka (10 victories; 2.37 ERA) will face Minny's Jake Odorizzi (12 wins; 3.73 ERA). But as good as the Twins have been lately (this season and last), they've struggled in inter-league situations against really good teams. In fact, they are 6-13 in their last 19 interleague games vs. teams with a winning record. But there's one main reason to like the Braves tonight. Soroka is 2019's best road starter and it's not even close. In 11 starts away from Atlanta, the 22-year-old is 6-0 with a 1.20 ERA in just under 68 innings. That 1.20 ERA is the best road number in the Majors -- better than Scherzer, Verlander, deGrom, or Ryu. Not surprisingly, the Braves are 18-4 in Soroka's last 22 starts and 12-2 in his last 14 on the road. Take Atlanta. |
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08-04-19 | Red Sox -105 v. Yankees | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the New York Yankees. Most teams have maybe a single veteran southpaw that's capable of winning 15 games in their rotation -- if they're lucky. The Red Sox have three in Chris Sale, Eduardo Rodriguez, and David Price. The problem is that the one who figured to be the ace (Sale) is having a horrible season, and the other two are just "okay" so far. Although their ERAs are a bit high, the good news for both E-Rod and Price is that they have solid winning records (a combined 20-9). It will be Price this evening in this National TV game getting his 21st start of the season for the Sox. Price is 7-3 with a 3.86 ERA and a career-best 10.8 strikeouts per nine innings. And, combined with his 2.5 walk rate, this results in a solid 4.24 K:BB ratio. His only other start of 2019 here in Yankee Stadium was a good one as Price went 6 1/3 innings, allowing just two runs on six hits with six strikeouts and one walk in an 8-5 BoSox victory. The Red Sox are a solid 16-7 in Price's last 23 starts vs. AL East teams. And in his career, his teams are 105-49 (+37 games on the money line) vs. division rivals. Take Boston. TV Game of the Week. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-04-19 | Cardinals +125 v. A's | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Oakland Athletics. Few people noticed when the A's pulled off a minor trade at the deadline, acquiring RHP Tanner Roark from the Reds in exchange for a non-descript minor league player (with some cash going Oakland's way to offset Roark's $10M salary). It's somewhat ironic that Roark's first start for his new team is against one of his former division rivals in the Cardinals. The Cards will have the added advantage today of a designated hitter as the game is being played in the Coliseum. Roark is essentially putting up the same type of mediocre numbers that he has for the past two seasons, going 6-7 with a 4.24 ERA in 21 starts. The Cards will go with veteran RHP Adam Wainwright. The 37-year-old's numbers are eerily similar to those of Roark (7-7 with a 4.47 ERA in 20 starts). However, Wainwright has been very successful in inter-league starts in his career, going 14-10 with a 3.73 ERA in 37 games (31 starts) vs. AL clubs. Moreover, the Cards are 5-0 in Wainwright's last five starts, 74-38 in his daytime starts (+21 games on the money line), and 40-27 (+19 games on the money line) as an underdog. In contrast, Roark's teams are 2-9 (minus 11 games on the money line) in his daytime starts at home, and 8-15 (minus 13 games on the money line) as a home favorite. Take St. Louis. MLB Underdog of the Week! As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-04-19 | Brewers +132 v. Cubs | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
At 2:20 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Chicago Cubs. The Brewers lost again on Saturday and now they are only two games over .500 and falling further behind in the race for the NL Central Crown. A fight for the Wild Card spot against the likes of the improved Nationals and Phillies will be very tough and will likely leave the Brewers on the outside looking in, so they need to win these Division games. Today it will be up to RHP Adrian Houser to right the ship. Multiple injuries to the starting staff have given the 26-year-old an opportunity to fill in for now. Houser is 4-4 with a 3.99 ERA in 24 appearances, including seven starts and those are pretty good numbers for a spot starter. The Cubs will go with RHP Yu Darvish. After an injury-shortened 2018 in which he made only eight starts, Darvish is back and healthy this season. The only problem is that Darvish's control issues are back as well. In 121 innings, Darvish has walked 51 batters and as a result, he is just 3-5 with a 4.46 ERA in his 22 starts. The Cubs are also 1-4 in Darvish's last five starts vs. winning teams (and his teams are 4-10, minus 12 games on the money line, in his last 14 in this situation). Take the Brew Crew. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-03-19 | Padres v. Dodgers -245 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the San Diego Padres. In his third season in the league, RHP Walker Buehler has arrived. The 25-year-old ace is 9-2 with a 3.38 ERA in 20 starts and Buehler made his first All-Star team last month just for good measure. It doesn't hurt his cause that Buehler plays for the best team in the National League. However, there's no denying the talent in his 6' 2" frame. Buehler gets his 21st start of the season tonight against a Padres team that he's already had much success against. In two career starts vs. the Pads, Buehler is 2-0 with a sparkling 0.69 ERA and 0.54 ERA in 13 innings. He'll try to build on that tonight at home, where Buehler has yet to lose this season, going 4-0 with a 2.78 ERA in nine starts (vs. 5-2 and 3.94 in 11 starts on the road). Despite their victory last night, the Padres are just 16-42 in their last 58 meetings with L.A. here at Dodger Stadium. Take Los Angeles. |
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08-03-19 | Reds v. Braves -126 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Cincinnati Reds. If Dallas Keuchel couldn't be a member of the Astros -- who right now look like the best team in the AL -- he's probably happy to be a member of the Braves. The Braves have a really good offense, and Atlanta will likely be the Dodgers' biggest threat in the NL this post-season. Keuchel may only be 3-4 in his first eight starts with Atlanta, but it's only a matter of time before he turns that record around. His ninth start will come tonight at home against a Reds team that is six games under .500 right now. Keuchel apparently loves pitching in his new home ballpark as he has posted a 2.66 ERA here in three starts, covering just over 20 innings (vs. 4.71 in five starts elsewhere). And in his only previous appearance against the Reds, Keuchel threw seven quality innings, allowing just two earned runs on five hits with six strikeouts and no walks. The Reds are 4-10 in their last 14 road games, while the Braves are 5-1 in their last six games vs. teams with a RH starter. Take Atlanta. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-03-19 | Brewers +125 v. Cubs | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
At 2:20 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Chicago Cubs. Say what you want about veteran southpaw starter Gio Gonzalez and his inconsistent play throughout his career. But since he's joined the Brewers at the end of last August, the 33-year-old has been one of Milwaukee's best pitchers. Gonzalez is 5-1 with an ERA around three runs in 13 starts since joining the Brew Crew. Gonzalez will get his ninth start of the season this afternoon against the Cubs in Wrigley Field, and he definitely doesn't mind these daytime starts. In 106 previous starts under the sun, Gonzalez has logged a 44-29 record (.603) compared with an 85-69 record (.552) under the lights. He didn't face the Cubs last season, but in two starts vs. them in 2019, the Brewers are 2-0 and Gonzalez is 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA (two runs in 15 innings) and a 0.75 WHIP. The Brewers are 6-1 in Gonzalez's last seven starts while the Cubs are 2-9 in their last 11 games vs. a lefthanded starter. Take Milwaukee as the road underdog this afternoon. NL Central Division Underdog of the Month! As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-03-19 | Red Sox +125 v. Yankees | Top | 2-9 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 32 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox in Game 1 of the Double Header. Chris Sale will get the start for Boston in this afternoon game vs. Domingo German (the same pitching match-up seen in last Sunday night's game in Boston). We actually played against Chris Sale in that game, and took Domingo German +158, and easily cashed in a 9-6 New York victory. Indeed, we've played against Sale a lot this season -- with much success -- when he's been installed as a big favorite. But we'll take Sale in this re-match, as I look for him to snap his 3-game losing streak to the Yankees this season. It's a bit confounding that he hasn't had the success this season which he has enjoyed in the past (his career ERA vs. the Yankees is 2.65 in 18 starts). The good news is that the Red Sox have been able to get to German. In the 26-year-old hurler's three starts vs. Boston, he's compiled a 6.10 ERA. Take the Red Sox. |
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08-02-19 | Royals v. Twins -235 | Top | 9-11 | Win | 100 | 17 h 43 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Kansas City Royals. With arguably the most potent offense in baseball -- they are probably going to break the MLB single-season HR record -- the Twins understandably didn't acquire hitters at the trade deadline. But they did address one of their weaker areas -- the bullpen -- by acquiring relievers Sergio Romo (Marlins) and Sam Dyson (Giants). Starters such as veteran LH Martin Perez, who goes in his 19th start tonight, will appreciate the team's job of bolstering the bullpen so his quality efforts aren't wasted. Perez is 8-4 with a 4.38 ERA in a season that has been quite a resurrection for the 28-year-old, who spent his first seven years with the Rangers. Perez will match up against the Royals and RHP Glenn Sparkman, who was absolutely dreadful in his last outing. He allowed eight runs on nine hits in a 9-1 defeat vs. the Indians. And that performance lowered Sparkman's ERA to 5.25. KC is 2-8 in its last 10 trips here, and 1-6 in RHP Glenn Sparkman's last seven road starts. Take the Twins. MLB Roadkill Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-01-19 | Cubs v. Cardinals -121 | Top | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 19 h 28 m | Show |
At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Chicago Cubs. Who is the hard-luck pitcher of the last month? That's easy -- in the NL anyway. Cards RH Jack Flaherty hasn't won a start since May 14, yet the 23-year-old has a 2.48 ERA in five July starts coming into tonight. (The Cardinals, though, have won the last two times that Flaherty has gone to the hill.) Flaherty gets start #22 tonight and it will come at home against the Cubs and veteran LHP Jon Lester. Road trips have not been friendly to Lester recently as the Cubs are 1-5 in Lester's last six road starts. The Cubs got help for their offense at the deadline, acquiring Tony Kemp (Houston) and Nicholas Castellanos (Detroit) to bolster their outfield. But they didn't do anything to improve their relief pitching, which has a current ERA of 4.20. Despite their victory on Wednesday, the Cubs are now just 1-4 in their last five meetings in St. Louis. Meanwhile, the Cards are 32-12 when priced as a favorite of -150 or less, while the Cubs have lost 11 of 16 with Lester when priced as a road underdog of +150 or less. Take St. Louis. MLB Division Game of the Month! As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-31-19 | Cubs -108 v. Cardinals | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 18 h 28 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over St. Louis. Kyle Hendricks will get the start for the Cubs, and he has been other-worldly vs. St. Louis, dating back to September 12, 2016. Hendricks has made 10 starts over this time vs. St. Louis, and has gone 7-0, with a 2.30 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. Even better: the Cubs won all 10 of those starts! I look for Chicago to run this streak to 11 in a row tonight. Take Chicago. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-31-19 | Giants +121 v. Phillies | Top | 5-1 | Win | 121 | 17 h 40 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Philadelphia Phillies. After a 9-15 record with a 4.42 ERA in 2017 and then 1-5 and 6.25 in an injury-shortened 2018, Jeff Samardzija was almost forgotten heading into this season. But we've seen a resurgence from the 34-year-old RHP in 2019 and all of a sudden, Samardzija is relevant again. The overall numbers may not seem that dominating (7-8 with a 3.95 ERA in 21 starts) but for the month of July, Samardzija is 3-1 with a 2.48 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in just under 33 innings and he's one of the major reasons that the Giants are in the NL Wild Card picture. He's also one of the main reasons that the Giants may not be so quick to move LH ace Madison Bumgarner now. This is Game 2 of a series between two teams that are in very similar situations at this point. RHP Vince Velasquez gets the start for the Phillies. He's won just three times in 22 games this season (12 starts). And the Phils are just 6-14 in Velasquez's last 20 home starts vs. teams with a winning record. Take the Giants. MLB Dog of the Week! As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-31-19 | Diamondbacks v. Yankees -129 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over Arizona. The Yankees lost a rare game at home last night, as Arizona defeated them, 4-2. That lowered New York's fantastic record at Yankee Stadium to 38-18. This afternoon, the Yankees will hand the ball to Masahiro Tanaka, who has been installed as a small favorite vs. Zack Greinke. New York's been at its best at home when priced between -125 and -175, as it's 17-3 this season (including 4-0 behind Tanaka), and 62-25 (+23 games on the money line) the past three years. Meanwhile, Greinke's teams are an awful 25-40 (minus 10 games on the money line) in his career when priced as a road dog of +150 or less. Take the Yankees. |
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07-31-19 | Braves v. Nationals +105 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
At 12:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Nationals over the Atlanta Braves. Nats #4 starter, Anibal Sanchez will get his fourth start of the season against the team that he pitched for in 2018. The veteran RH had another strong outing last time against the Dodgers, going seven innings, allowing just one run on three hits with six Ks and one walk. As he's often been, Sanchez was very efficient, throwing just 89 pitches in the seven innings and it's outings like that which can pay big dividends down the stretch, especially in September when things will likely be very tight in the NL East. Start number 20 comes this afternoon at home where Sanchez has done his best work in 2019, going 2-1 with a 3.40 ERA in nine starts (vs. 4-5 and 3.83 in 10 on the road). A less experienced pitcher might get frustrated that he hasn't notched more victories given how well he's pitched, but not Sanchez. He knows that his job is to keep his team in the game as long as possible, and the improved bullpen play of the Nats means the wins will eventually come. The Nats are 8-3 in Sanchez's last 11 starts, and we'll back the home team today. Take Washington. |
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07-30-19 | Brewers +111 v. A's | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Oakland Athletics. Four Brewer starters are now on the shelf as Gio Gonzalez (shoulder), Jhoulys Chacin (oblique), and Brandon Woodruff (also oblique) have joined Jeff Nelson on the Injured List. This leaves only Zach Davies and Chase Anderson as healthy members of the rotation. It also opens the door for some others, notably RH Jordan Lyles, whom the Brewers just acquired from the Pirates for minor league pitcher Cody Ponce. And also today's starter, Adrian Houser (4-4, 4.19 ERA), who has bounced back-and-forth from reliever to starter. We'll take the road underdog tonight, as the Brewers are an awesome 44-27 (+15 games on the money line) off a blowout loss by more than 3 runs. Take Milwaukee. |
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07-30-19 | Dodgers -145 v. Rockies | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 10 m | Show |
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over Colorado. Julio Urias will get the start for L.A. tonight, and be matched up against fellow southpaw, Kyle Freeland. The Rockies have not done well this season with Freeland on the hill, as they're 5-10. And they're also a poor 1-5 this season as a home underdog priced from +125 to +175 (and 5-12 the past 3 seasons in that role). Meanwhile, the Dodgers are a solid 37-19 (+9 games on the money line) when priced from -125 to -175, and 8-3 vs. the Rockies this season. Take the Dodgers. MLB Road Warrior Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-30-19 | Rays v. Red Sox -135 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -135 | 8 h 60 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Tampa Bay Rays. Now at age 33, David Price is on the downside of his career. But the veteran southpaw is showing that he still has plenty of quality pitching left in his arm. Despite the shortcomings of the Boston bullpen this season, Price is 7-4 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 19 starts. Compare his numbers to those of Chris Sale and Rick Porcello. This is a revenge situation for Price, who pitched well in his last start against the Rays on the road (6.0 IP; 3 ER; 8K's; 2 BBs) but took the loss and now he gets the Rays at home tonight. Price has done by far his best work at Fenway this season, going 3-1 with a 2.89 ERA in seven starts here vs. 4-3 and 4.13 in 12 on the road. The Sox are also 41-15 in Price's last 56 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance, and 19-9 in Price's last 28 starts vs. teams with a winning record. And, for his career, Price is 6-6 with a 3.23 ERA in 18 games (17 starts) against the Rays. Take the Red Sox. |
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07-30-19 | Braves +101 v. Nationals | Top | 11-8 | Win | 101 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Washington Nationals. Less than a week after the Nats optioned RHP Erick Fedde to the Minors, they are having to recall him again so he can start this game tonight. That's a good thing for the Braves as the 26-year-old third-year pitcher is taking the rotation spot of Max Scherzer. So Atlanta won't have to face the three-time Cy Young winner as Scherzer recovers from a mild back strain. Having just dropped back-to-back games to their two Division Rivals, the Braves certainly welcome a chance to get a win against Fedde rather than arguably the best pitcher in the game. And they will send their most experienced starter to the mound as RHP Julio Teheran gets his 23rd start of the season tonight. Teheran enjoys pitching in Nats Park as the veteran is 5-3 with a 3.42 ERA in 11 starts covering 71 innings here. And the Braves are 6-1 in his last seven starts vs. teams from the NL East. Finally, the Nats are just 3-9 in Fedde's last 12 home starts while Atlanta is 24-12 in its last 36 road games. Take the Braves. |
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07-29-19 | Dodgers -129 v. Rockies | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -129 | 17 h 26 m | Show |
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Colorado Rockies. With their starting roster relatively healthy and a comfortable lead in their Division, the Dodgers are one team that doesn't have to worry too much about the trade deadline this week. Sure, they might pick up some lesser players (a solid set-up man or middle-inning reliever, for example) but they don't have to mortgage their future for a star -- something a lot of other teams might be doing over the next three days. Coming off of a successful trip to DC -- the Dodgers took two of three from the Nats -- they will turn to one of their steadiest performers tonight in Colorado. RHP Kenta Maeda is 7-7 with a 3.81 ERA in 21 games -- 20 starts -- coming into this road start. Some pitchers dread going into hitter-friendly Coors Field, but not Maeda. In 10 appearances -- seven starts -- the veteran is 5-1 with a 3.12 ERA and 1.09 WHIP here in just over 40 innings of work. And the Dodgers have dominated this series, going 21-8 in the last 29 meetings (6-2 in the last eight here in Denver). Take the Dodgers. MLB Road Warrior Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.Â
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07-28-19 | Yankees +170 v. Red Sox | Top | 9-6 | Win | 170 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Boston Red Sox. MLB and the networks have to love tonight's prime-time match-up featuring the best rivalry in baseball. And the pitching match-up is great, RHP Domingo German going into Fenway to face LHP Chris Sale. The interesting thing is that each of these aces has an ERA of right around four runs, which is not what one would expect, given the talent of these two veteran hurlers. Sale's 5-9 record and 4.00 ERA are a far cry from where his numbers usually are (12-4 with a 2.11 ERA last season). And for the first time in the last eight seasons, Sale was not selected as an All-Star. Yet, despite this rather obvious fall-off that Sale is experiencing, few people in Boston seem to be concerned. We've actually gone against Sale several times this season (with great success), and we'll do so again tonight. For technical support, consider that Boston is only 3-7 in Sale's last 10 home starts ,while the Yanks are 8-2 in German's last 10 road starts (and 10-1 in his last 11 vs. AL East teams). Take the Yankees. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-28-19 | Giants -113 v. Padres | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 39 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the San Diego Padres. Up until a few weeks ago, it was a forgone conclusion that the Giants would be moving Madison Bumgarner at the trade deadline -- which is basically upon us at this point. But a huge surge from the team has got the Giants thinking that perhaps they should hold on to their most accomplished pitcher. The Giants are an incredible 18-5 in their last 23 games coming into this afternoon. And this series finale features none-other-than Mad Bum in his 23rd start of the season. The amazing thing about this hot streak when it comes to Bumgarner is that the veteran southpaw really hasn't contributed when you look at his W/L ledger. Bumgarner hasn't won a start in almost a month (June 30) but the Giants are 5-1 in his last six starts going back to June 25 and that's really what's important. Despite their win on Saturday night, the Padres are just 1-8 in their last nine home games while the Giants are 10-2 in their last 12 road games. Take San Francisco. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-28-19 | Orioles v. Angels -200 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Anaheim Angels over Baltimore. After defeating (arguably) the best team in baseball -- the L.A. Dodgers -- in back-to-back games to start the week, the Angels have had a letdown vs. (arguably) the worst team in baseball -- the Baltimore Orioles. Baltimore has won the first three games of this 4-game series. But I love Anaheim to get back into the win column on this Sunday afternoon. One reason is that Orioles RHP Dylan Bundy has not performed well vs. the Angels over the last two seasons (9 1-3 innings, 10 runs (8 earned), 7.71 ERA, 1.50 WHIP). And the Orioles are also at their worst vs. RHP starters (95-189, minus 76 games on the money line). With Felix Pena penciled in as the Angels starter, we'll back the home team today. Pena is 8-3 on the season, with a 1.20 WHIP. And he leads Anaheim in wins, innings pitched (89 2-3) and strikeouts (96). Take the Angels. |
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07-28-19 | Twins -186 v. White Sox | Top | 11-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Chicago White Sox. We played on the Twins in Game 1 of this series, and easily cashed in a 10-3 blowout. And we'll come back with Minnesota this afternoon to close out the series in similar fashion. Today, the White Sox will hand the ball to Dylan Covey. Unfortunately, he's been dreadful in his last two starts, as he's given up 11 runs over 6 2-3 innings (14.85 ERA). And over his last 24 starts, he's 2-16 (the White Sox are 3-18), with an ERA of 6.69. Not surprisingly, Covey struggled against Minnesota over this stretch, as he faced them twice, and got shelled both games (0-2, 6.75 ERA). He'll be opposed by Kyle Gibson today. And Gibson has had tremendous success vs. Chicago, as he's 8-4 in his 15 career starts, with a 2.82 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. And that 2.82 ERA is Gibson's lowest such number vs. any American League team. Take the Twins. |
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07-28-19 | Rays -146 v. Blue Jays | Top | 10-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over Toronto. This is a rematch of a game played in Tampa between these clubs on May 27. In that game, Yonny Chirinos threw 5 shutout innings en route to an 8-3 victory over Aaron Sanchez and the Blue Jays. Sanchez struggled a bit in that start, as he put on eight baserunners in just three innings. Even worse: his ERA at home this season is 5.23, while it's 6.06 in all of his 22 starts. In contrast, Chirinos has a 3.12 ERA in his 15 starts, including 2.84 on the road. Finally, Tampa's 23-12 as a road favorite this season, while the Blue Jays are a wallet-busting 9-21 as a home underdog. Take the Rays. |
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07-28-19 | Braves v. Phillies -130 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Atlanta Braves. After going 6-0 over the first two months of the season (12 starts), the Phillies' Aaron Nola has been the hard-luck pitcher of the league. Despite having lowered his ERA from 4.18 to its current 3.64 number over his 10 starts since the end of May, Nola has won just twice (2-2). He's pitched well in his last three (a 3.00 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 18 innings) but doesn't have a victory to show for it. But if you're Nola and the Phillies, you realize the important thing is whether or not the team is winning when you go to the mound. And that's certainly been the case lately as the Phils are 5-1 in Nola's last six starts. And that includes his best start of the season -- eight innings of shutout ball on July 2 in a game his team would win 2-0 here at home. The opponent that day was the same as today -- the Braves. Nola has also yet to lose this season in afternoon starts, going 4-0 with a 3.74 ERA in eight outings before the sun goes down. Finally, the Phils are 26-9 in Nola's last 35 following a Quality Start in his previous game. Take Philly. |
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07-27-19 | Cubs +106 v. Brewers | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 22 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Milwaukee Brewers. If the Cubs are going to make another deep playoff run, they're going to need their veteran starters to come through in the final two months of the season. This of course includes 35-year-old LHP Jon Lester. Lester was scratched from his last scheduled start this past Wednesday when he fell ill on the road, so this is a very important step for him and it comes at a crucial time against a rival which is hot on their heels -- just one game back in the Division. The good news for Lester is that he was superb in his only other start vs. Milwaukee this season. Back on May 12, he allowed 0 earned runs over 6 2-3 innings, and the Cubbies won, 4-1. In his career, Lester has made nine starts vs. Milwaukee, and he has a 2.35 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. Even better: in his career, Lester has gone 31-13 when pitching with at least 2 extra days of rest. Take Chicago. MLB Road Warrior Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-27-19 | Braves v. Phillies +118 | Top | 15-7 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 24 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Atlanta Braves. The Phillies will almost certainly be in the market for a starting pitcher over the next week and one of the guys who will be looking over his shoulder is 25-year-old RH Zach Eflin. Eflin hasn't been horrible. But given that the Phils were expecting him to be a solid #3 or #4 option in the rotation, he's been a disappointment. Perhaps knowing that he might be on a short leash will give Eflin some motivation tonight at home against the Braves. The good news on that front is that Eflin is 2-1 with a very nice 3.46 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in four career starts vs. Atlanta, and the Phillies are 3-1 in those four. Also, despite his recent struggles, Eflin has pitched well at home this season as he is 5-3 with a 3.88 ERA in eight starts here at Citizens Bank Park -- and the Phillies are 7-3 in his last 10 outings here. And even though they won here last night, the Braves are still just 1-5 in their last six in Philadelphia. Take the Phillies. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-27-19 | Diamondbacks -124 v. Marlins | Top | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 9 m | Show |
At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over Miami. The D-Backs' young southpaw, Alex Young, has been terrific in his four starts this season. He's 3-0, with a 2.66 ERA and 0.73 WHIP. And this is a very good match-up for him tonight, as the Marlins are an awful 36-63 (minus 16 games on the money line) vs. lefty starters. They're also a poor 17-30 (minus 7 games on the money line) as a home underdog. Take Arizona. |
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07-27-19 | Yankees +134 v. Red Sox | Top | 5-9 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Boston Red Sox. There's no arguing what CC Sabathia's legacy in professional baseball will be. The 39-year-old southpaw is a certain Hall Of Fame player and could be one of the last pitchers we see with 250 MLB victories. But Sabathia would like to go out a winner. And being that he's a Yankee, he just may be able to do that, and a second World Series ring this year is not all that far-fetched. He's had some tough outings lately, but it hasn't helped his cause that four of his last five starts have come against the Twins and Rays. He faces another good team this afternoon, but one against which he's had a lot of success. Sabathia has 18 victories and 4.15 ERA over his career against the Sox and there aren't many starters in the league that can say that. Boston is 2-5 in its last seven home games vs. RH starters and the Yanks are 13-6 in Sabathia's last 19 following a team loss. Take New York. |
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07-26-19 | Giants +142 v. Padres | Top | 2-1 | Win | 142 | 20 h 31 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the San Diego Padres. Don't look now, but the Giants are a game over .500 and only 3 1/2 games back in the NL Wild Card race. This throws quite a monkey wrench into the plans of the team that many thought would finish in last place. It is widely assumed that the Giants are shopping their ace, LH Madison Bumgarner, but the team's recent success may cause a change of heart for them. But it's not just Bumgarner who has facilitated the recent turnaround for the Giants. The offense has been on fire lately and other pitchers have stepped up their game. One of those is RH Jeff Samardzija. The 34-year-old veteran is just 7-8 with a 4.08 ERA overall but for the month of July, Samardzija is 3-1 with a 2.70 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in four starts covering just under 27 innings. Start number 21 will come tonight in San Diego against the Padres, a team he's had more success against than any other, going 9-3 with a 3.38 ERA in 19 games (17 starts) against them. And in 10 games (nine starts) at Petco park he is 5-2 with a 2.42 ERA. Take San Fran. MLB Road Warrior Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-26-19 | Rangers v. A's -109 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 27 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Oakland A's over Texas. The A's lost yesterday to the Rangers. But I love them to bounce back tonight, as they're 61-25 (+25 games on the money line) as a home favorite, while the Rangers are a poor 15-29 (minus 8 games on the money line) as a road underdog. Daniel Mengden will get the start for Oakland today, and the A's are 22-10 in his last 32 starts! He'll be opposed by veteran RHP Lance Lynn, whose teams have lost 27 of his last 42 road starts (minus 12 games on the money line). Take the A's. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-26-19 | Yankees -127 v. Red Sox | Top | 5-10 | Loss | -127 | 16 h 30 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over Boston. Andrew Cashner, who was acquired two weeks ago in a trade with Baltimore, will get the start for the home team tonight. Unfortunately for the Red Sox, he's lost his last four decisions to the Yankees. And his team lost all three of his starts vs. New York this season. In contrast, James Paxton has never lost to the Red Sox, with a 3-0 record and 1.62 ERA in five career starts. In his lone outing vs. Boston this season, Paxton shut out the BoSox over eight innings, with 12 strikeouts, in an 8-0 victory. Take the Yankees. |
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07-26-19 | Braves -123 v. Phillies | Top | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 16 h 25 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Philadelphia Phillies. The Braves apparently knew what they were doing when they selected Mike Soroka in the first round (28th pick) of the 2015 draft. After a first season in which the 21-year-old RHP showed flashes of how good he could be when he went 2-1 with a 3.51 ERA in five starts, Soroka -- who still has his rookie status intact -- has taken it to the next level in 2019. In 17 starts, Soroka is 10-2 with a 2.46 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in just over 102 innings. He suffered a bad beat in his last start but that was against the Nationals at home and tonight Soroka is pitching in Philadelphia for the first time. The Phillies were struggling mightily early on this season and although they've turned it around somewhat in the last month, the team that many picked to win the Division still isn't where it needs to be. As good as Soroka's overall numbers have been, he's been an absolute terror on the road this season. In nine starts away from Atlanta, Soroka is 6-0 with a 1.13 ERA in 56 innings. Take the Braves. |
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07-25-19 | Twins -142 v. White Sox | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 42 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Chicago White Sox. It appears that Twins RHP Jose Berrios has ascended to the level of ace in 2019. In his fourth season in the Majors, the 25-year-old Puerto Rican is putting up the best numbers of his career. But we probably still haven't seen the ceiling for him as he is just about to enter his prime. In 20 starts covering just under 128 innings, Berrios is 8-5 with a 2.96 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and a career-best 3.93 K:BB ratio. Berrios appears to be the perfect pitcher to have arrived at just the right time for a team which is taking just about everyone by surprise this season. Start #21 will come against the division rival White Sox -- a team he has dominated throughout his career. In 11 lifetime starts vs. Chicago, Berrios is 8-2 with a 2.21 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in just over 73 innings. Those eight victories are also the most that he's logged against any team in the Majors. The Sox will go with RHP Lucas Giolito, and they are 3-9 in his last 12 home starts vs. teams with a winning record. Minnesota is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings with the Sox, and we'll back it on the road tonight. Take the Twins. MLB Road Warrior Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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07-24-19 | Angels v. Dodgers -188 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -188 | 19 h 38 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Los Angeles Angels. It seems that Ross Stripling is willing to fill any pitching role that the Dodgers throw at him. The 29-year-old RH has been both a starter and reliever in all four of his Major League seasons so you have to believe that by now Stripling is okay with transitioning between the two. He started 2019 in the rotation, then moved to the bullpen at the end of the first month, but was summoned back to starting duties by the end of June. He's performed well enough to stay in the rotation since then and will get start number 12 tonight at home against the Dodgers' cross-town rivals from Anaheim. And the fact that this is a home game for the Dodgers means the Angels won't get the benefit of the DH tonight. Stripling likes pitching in interleague games as he is 6-2 with a 2.91 ERA in 17 games (five starts) vs. teams from the AL. Meanwhile, the Angels are 2-6 in their last eight interleague road games vs. teams with a winning record. Take the Dodgers. |
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07-24-19 | Yankees v. Twins -103 | Top | 10-7 | Loss | -103 | 17 h 37 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the New York Yankees. The Twins apparently knew what they were doing when they acquired veteran RHP Jake Odorizzi from the Rays in February 2018 for nothing more than a non-descript minor league infielder. They no doubt noticed that although Odorizzi hadn't been setting the league on fire, he was a workhorse who rarely missed a start in the last four seasons (2014-2017). And he's still under a very team-friendly contract through 2020. Sure enough, in this, his second season in Minnesota, Odorizzi is breaking out, having already matched his career high in wins (11), with a 3.18 ERA (also career-best) and his first All Star nod. With acquisitions like that, it's no wonder Minny is on top in the AL Central. Start number 20 comes tonight against his old nemesis from the AL East and Odorizzi's 4.06 career ERA against them (16 starts) isn't bad when you consider the Yankee lineups since he's been in the league. The Yanks won last night, but this has been a very host-friendly series lately with the home team winning eight of the last 11 meetings. Take the Twins. |
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07-24-19 | Royals v. Braves -188 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -188 | 16 h 47 m | Show |
At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Kansas City Royals. Julio Teheran must be thinking "what do I have to do in this league to get a winning record?" After three straight seasons of winning ledgers (2013-2015), the 28-year-old RH -- whose talent is rarely questioned -- has had three straight non-winning campaigns and is on track for another one in 2019. Perhaps an inter-league start against one of the worst teams the AL has to offer can put Teheran on the winning track. But just because Teheran hasn't been ringing up the W's doesn't mean his team hasn't benefited. The Braves are 14-7 in his starts this season including 4-0 in his last four, and Teheran has only allowed five ER in 21 combined innings in those. The Royals will go with second year RHP Brad Keller. After going 9-6 with a 3.08 ERA in his rookie season, Keller has taken a step backwards in 2019, logging a 6-9 record with a 4.18 ERA in 21 starts. The Royals are also a poor 4-11 in their last 15 interleague games vs. teams with a right-handed starter. Take the Braves. |
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07-24-19 | Red Sox v. Rays -109 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
At 12:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over Boston. In this EARLY game between AL East division rivals, we'll play on the homestanding Rays vs. David Price and the Red Sox. Boston has leapfrogged Tampa to take over 6th place in the American League following its wins in the first two games of this series. Yesterday's game was a heartbreaking loss for the Rays, who left the bases loaded in the bottom of the 9th inning. I look for Tampa to salvage the 3rd game of this series, as they will have the edge on the pitching mound today. Boston's veteran LHP Price has not been effective over his last three starts (5.14 ERA; 1.57 WHIP), even though two of those games were against the Orioles and Tigers. This afternoon, he'll have a much tougher match-up against Tampa and its RH ace, Charlie Morton. At home this season, Morton is 5-1 with a 2.80 ERA. And he also shut out Boston over six innings in his last game against the Red Sox (April 27, in Boston). Finally, he's also 4-1 in his daytime starts, with a 2.45 ERA. Take the Rays. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-23-19 | A's +147 v. Astros | Top | 4-3 | Win | 147 | 18 h 40 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Houston Astros. It's hard to imagine a match-up of two more surprising starters this season than this one. The A's and RHP Mike Fiers (9-3 with a 3.64 ERA in 21 starts) go into Houston to face the Astros and LHP Wade Miley (8-4 with a 3.25 ERA in 20 starts). We'll give the advantage to Fiers, who has had winning campaigns in three of his last four seasons (assuming he finishes 2019 above .500 which it seems he definitely will). No team in the American League has plated more runs against lefties this season than the A's, who have scored 159 runs vs. southpaws coming into tonight. And they're hitting .270 vs. lefties as a team which is third-best in the league.  The A's are also 21-8 in their last 29 games overall, but perhaps even more impressive is the fact that they are 21-9 in their last 30 road games. Finally, they are 5-0 in Fiers' last five starts following a team loss in their previous game. Take Oakland. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-23-19 | Red Sox v. Rays +154 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 40 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Boston Red Sox. The Orioles just took two of three from the Red Sox over the weekend, capping off the unlikely series outcome with a combined one-hitter on Sunday afternoon. So Boston decided to take out its frustration on the Rays on Monday, plating nine runs in a lopsided 9-4 victory here in St. Pete. Now they will try to make it two in a row, sending their #1 starter, LHP Chris Sale to the mound tonight. But it hasn't been a typical Chris Sale campaign so far as the 30-year-old southpaw ace is just 4-9 with a 4.05 ERA in 20 starts this season. The Rays will go with RHP Yonny Chirinos, who has better numbers this season than Sale. Chirinos is 8-5 with a 3.29 ERA in 20 appearances -- including 14 starts -- coming into tonight. And over his last three starts, Chirinos has a 4.26 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 19 innings, vs. 5.51 and 1.41 in 16 1/3 innings for Sale in his last three. The Sox are also an ugly 0-4 in Sale's last four starts vs. teams with a winning record. Take the Rays. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-22-19 | Rangers +116 v. Mariners | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 22 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over the Seattle Mariners. The battle for bragging rights in the Lone Star State has been no contest lately. The Astros swept the Rangers in Houston over the weekend, which was on the heels of two straight wins that Houston earned in Arlington a week earlier. The good news for the Rangers is that they don't have to see the Astros again until a final two-game series in Houston in mid-September. This week, they'll start with a series in Seattle against the Mariners. And that's a match-up which has been much better lately for Texas. The Rangers have taken seven of the last eight meetings with the M's going back to the end of April. RHP Adrian Sampson will get the start tonight. Though he's hardly a household name, the 27-year-old has done some very good things for the Rangers this season. This will be his first start of the season vs. Seattle, but last September he had a quality start against the M's (6 2/3 IP; 2ER). The Mariners will counter with RHP Marco Gonzales, and they are 1-3 in his last four starts vs. Texas. Seattle is also a wallet-busting 7-23 in its last 30 home games vs. teams with winning records. Take the Rangers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-22-19 | Cubs -111 v. Giants | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -111 | 21 h 57 m | Show |
At 9:45 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over San Francisco. Both of these teams are red-hot at the moment. The Cubs are 9-3 over their last 12 games, while San Francisco is 15-3 over its last 18. Unfortunately for San Francisco, it has to hand the ball to RHP Shaun Anderson this evening. Anderson has made 12 starts, and his ERA is 4.87, with a 1.50 WHIP. Even worse: over his last three starts, he's compiled an 8.78 ERA with a 2.10 WHIP. That doesn't bode well for San Francisco in this game. Nor does the fact that the Cubs are a solid 111-74 (+14 games on the money line off a loss). Take Chicago behind its 27-year-old hurler, Alec Mills. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-22-19 | Yankees -109 v. Twins | Top | 6-8 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 22 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Minnesota Twins. Two former Yankee pitchers went into the Hall of Fame on Sunday (though it didn't help the current team, which lost to the Rockies that afternoon). The next pinstriped hurler to get inducted -- if the Hall continues to exclude Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte -- just might be LH CC Sabathia. But, first things first. And since Sabathia is still in the NY rotation, he's going to no doubt focus on the job at hand -- and the very real possibility of a second World Series Ring. Tonight he takes the hill in Minneapolis against a very good Twins club (who we played on yesterday, but also one against which he's done very well. In 39 career starts vs. Minny, Sabathia is 20-9 with a 3.09 ERA in just over 262 innings. The Yanks are also 12-2 in Sabathia's last 14 starts vs. the Twins. Take New York. |
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07-21-19 | A's v. Twins -139 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Oakland Athletics. When evaluating RHP Michael Pineda's 2019 season, it's a matter of the glass being half-empty or half-full. On the half-empty side is the fact that Pineda has only managed to log a 6-5 record with a very mediocre 4.38 ERA in his 18 starts covering just under 99 innings. But on the half-full side is Pineda's pinpoint control and the fact that he's only walked an average of 1.5 batters per nine IP, resulting in a very nice 1.16 WHIP and 5.44 K:BB ratio. The other enigma this season is Pineda's poor record at home (just two wins in 10 starts) vs. on the road (4-2 in eight starts), contrasted against his ERA which is almost a full run better here at Target Field (3.98 vs. 4.87). But the biggest reason to like Pineda and the Twins today is his record vs. Oakland. In six career starts vs. the A's, Pineda is 4-1 with a 2.75 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 36 innings. The Twins are also 6-1 in Pineda's last seven starts following a team loss in their previous game. Take Minnesota. |
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07-21-19 | Rangers +134 v. Astros | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over the Houston Astros. What kind of odds could you have gotten on Lance Lynn leading the League in wins this season? Well, we are almost two-thirds of the way through, and Lynn is doing just that, with 12 victories against just five defeats, in 20 starts. The veteran RHP has a chance to reach 20 when the season comes to an end -- a mark which seems to be harder and harder to attain these days. We've seen quite a bit of the future of Astros pitching lately, and this afternoon is no different as 25-year-old Rogelio Armenteros will get the start at home. Armenteros has earned this start -- his first in the Majors -- on the strength of his performances out of the bullpen this season. In three relief appearances, the Cuban RHP has a 2.00 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in nine innings. However, his numbers this year as a starter in the Minors do not instill confidence for this debut as he was 4-5 with a 5.05 ERA in 13 starts at the AAA level. The Rangers are a solid 9-5 in their last 14 against RH starters and 5-1 in Lynn's last six starts. Take Texas in an underdog role today. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-21-19 | Cardinals +102 v. Reds | Top | 3-1 | Win | 102 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Cincinnati Reds. Following a breakout campaign in his second MLB season last year, many thought Jack Flaherty would take the next step in 2019. That 2018 campaign included eight wins, a strikeout rate of almost 11 per nine IP, and a fifth place finish in the Rookie of the Year balloting. But 2019 hasn't seen any improvement for the hard-throwing RHP, at least when it comes to the W/L record (4-6) and ERA (4.41). But there are several signs that Flaherty can still have a successful season by the time things wrap up. For one thing, his strikeout rate per 9 IP is still elite at 10.0 and he is walking less hitters this season which has resulted in an improved K:BB ratio (3.29 vs. 3.05 in 2018). And he's only 23 years old. Start #20 will come this afternoon in Cincinnati vs. a Reds team against which he has a 3.09 career ERA. Flaherty also loves daytime outings, with a 3.20 ERA in 17 career afternoon games (vs. 4.35 in 35 under the lights). The Reds will go with RHP Anthony DeSclafani and they are 3-7 in his last 10 starts. Take the Cards. |
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