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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-01-21 | Blues v. Wild -139 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Wild over the St. Louis Blues. The Blues have certainly had the Wild's number, of late. St. Louis not only won the first two games of this 3-game set, but also won two other games earlier in April, for a 4-game win streak vs. Minnesota, overall. But I love the Wild to snap this losing streak tonight, as it's a solid 26-11 when playing with revenge from four losses, and a perfect 6-0 this season off back to back defeats. Take Minnesota. |
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05-01-21 | Warriors -7.5 v. Rockets | Top | 113-87 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over Houston. The Rockets come into this game off an upset win over the Milwaukee Bucks, 143-136, while Golden State checks in off 2 SU/ATS losses. We'll lay the points with the Warriors tonight, as Golden State is 33-17 ATS off back-to-back SU/ATS losses, if it was playing an opponent off a win. Even better: NBA home teams not favored by 7+ points, have cashed just 32% since 1991 off an upset home win as a 7-point (or greater) underdog, if they were playing an opponent off a SU loss in their current game. Take the Warriors. |
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05-01-21 | Dodgers -122 v. Brewers | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -122 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Milwaukee Brewers. Dustin May will get the start for the champs tonight, and he will no doubt want a better result than the one he was dealt in his last start. That was six days ago against the Padres. May pitched six innings, and gave up just one run, on two hits, with 10 strikeouts. Yet the Dodgers lost that game, 8-7, in extra innings. May has a more-than-respectable 2.53 ERA on the season, in four starts. But he only has one win to show for it. I expect him to get back into the 'win column' on this Saturday, as the Dodgers are a fantastic 14-7 in his 21 career starts, and 20-8 (+9 games on the moneyline) off back to back losses. Meanwhile, his mound opponent, Brandon Woodruff, has a career ERA of 6.96 in his starts vs. Los Angeles. Take the Dodgers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-01-21 | Penguins v. Capitals -106 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Capitals over the Pittsburgh Penguins. These two played a classic Caps-Pens game on Thursday, with the Pens winning in overtime, after 60 minutes of back-and-forth hockey with basically the same number of shots on each side. So if the Caps need something to swing it to their favor tonight in the rematch, then perhaps that something just might be named Alex Ovechkin. Ovechkin hasn't played since April 22 due to a lower body injury, but he may make his return tonight.   Meanwhile, the Penguins will still be without star center Evgeni Malkin, who is out indefinitely with a lower body injury. This is a super situation for Washington, which is a perfect 8-0 in its last eight games revenging a home loss vs. an opponent. And the Penguins are 10-13 (-10 games on the moneyline) in their last 23 games off a road win against a division rival. Take the Caps. |
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05-01-21 | Indians v. White Sox -173 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Cleveland Indians. The White Sox ran into reigning AL Cy Young winner Shane Bieber last night and, if not for one bad inning, they might have been able to pull it out. Despite losing the game, 5-3, the Sox out-hit Cleveland. Unlike the Indians, Chicago features not one pitching ace, but two. Lance Lynn may not be quite as flashy as #1 starter, Lucas Giolito, but the 33-year-old RH can be just as dominant. And he already boasts a complete game shutout this season. But after his most recent start, Lynn was placed on the 10-day IL for a trapezius strain, retroactive to April 17. He will return this afternoon to get his fourth start of the season. Lynn's numbers are among the best of any pitcher in the league as he has logged a 0.92 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 13.50 K:BB ratio (27 Ks with 2 walks). In five career starts vs. Cleveland, Lynn has a 1.41 ERA and 1.03 WHIP, with 41 strikeouts in 32 innings. Finally, Lynn's teams are 18-8 (+10 games on the moneyline) in his last 26 home starts. Take Chicago. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-30-21 | Jazz +4.5 v. Suns | Top | 100-121 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 9 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz + the points over the Phoenix Suns. We're coming down to the wire in this NBA season, so this game will go a long way toward determining the #1 seed in the Playoffs. Currently, Utah resides in first place, while Phoenix is just one game behind. This has been an underdog-oriented series of late, as the dog has cashed each of the last four meetings. Tonight, Utah's the underdog, primarily because it will play without All Stars Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley. But there's still enough firepower on Utah's roster to get the 'W.' Indeed, the Jazz scored 154 points on Wednesday (the most points scored by an NBA team this season), in a 49-point blowout of the Sacramento Kings. We played on the Jazz in that game, and will come right back with them tonight. For technical support, consider that .720 (or better) NBA road underdogs of 2+ points have covered 73.6% in the regular season since 1990 when playing with double revenge. Take the Jazz + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-30-21 | Sharks v. Avalanche -265 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 4 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Avalanche over the San Jose Sharks. The Avalanche lost, 5-2, on Wednesday to their biggest rivals in the Division -- the Golden Knights. And that defeat placed Colorado six points behind Vegas for first place. With only one game left to play vs. the Knights, it's imperative that the Avs win games like the one they're playing tonight. The Sharks are just 20-24-5 and sit 21 points behind Colorado, so they're not a threat but can still play the role of spoiler. The good news is that the Avs have dominated this series recently, winning five of the last six meetings overall and going 5-0 in the last five here at Ball Arena. The Avs are also dangerous right after they get beat like they did on Wednesday. In their last 13 games following a loss by three or more goals, the Avs are 11-2. Meanwhile, the Sharks are 7-12 (-6 games on the moneyline) in their last 19 immediately off a win against a division rival. Take Colorado. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-30-21 | Red Sox -160 v. Rangers | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Texas Rangers. There are few starters that can throw the ball as hard as Red Sox RH starter Nathan Evolaldi. The 31-year-old's fastball regularly averages close to 100 mph and so far in 2021 his velocity has stayed exactly the same as it was the previous two seasons. Limited by injuries in prior campaigns, Eovaldi appears to be healthy now and is having very nice start to the year, posting a 3.77 ERA in five starts covering 28 2/3 seasons with 27 strikeouts and just five walks. Start number six will be his third career outing against the Rangers. In his previous starts vs. Texas, Eovaldi has logged a 3.00 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 12 innings. Texas beat the Red Sox and former Rangers southpaw starter Martin Perez last night here at Globe Life Park. But Eovaldi is not a left-hander and the Rangers are 1-10 in their last 11 games vs. a right-handed starter. Despite their loss last night, the Sox are still 16-6 in the last 22 meetings with the Rangers. Take Boston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-30-21 | Cardinals v. Pirates -105 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
At 6:35 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Pirates over the St. Louis Cardinals. The Royals over the in the AL are the biggest surprise in the Majors this year with a 15-8 record coming into tonight. But almost as impressive is the job that the Pirates have done in the senior circuit. The team that many people predicted would be MLB's worst are an incredible 12-12 as we end the first month of the season. Pittsburgh always seems to find a way to develop very good young pitchers -- even if they don't end up sticking around very long. Tonight the Bucs will take on their division rivals and showcase another one of those talented young hurlers in RH JT Brubaker. In four starts, Brubaker is 2-1 with a 2.01 ERA and 0.94 WHIP with 23 strikeouts and five walks in just over 22 innings. This will be Brubaker's first career start vs. the Cards, although he threw two scoreless relief innings against them previously. The Cards will go with RHP John Gant, who has a sparkling 2.25 ERA in his four starts -- but who also has issued 13 walks in 20 innings. Those free passes will catch up to him at some point this season. The Bucs are 11-8 (+8 games on the moneyline) in their last 19 games vs. RH starters. Take Pittsburgh. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-29-21 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -149 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over the Colorado Rockies. RHP Luke Weaver was traded from the Cardinals to the Diamondbacks at the end of the 2018 season and he proceeded to have a very nice campaign the following year. In an injury-shortened 2019 season, Weaver went 4-3 with a 2.94 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 12 starts covering just over 64 innings. But his second year in the desert didn't go nearly as smoothly. Maybe it was the pandemic or maybe it was something else, but 2020 is a year that Weaver would likely want to erase. In 12 starts, he went 1-9, leading the league in losses, with a 6.58 ERA in 52 innings. So far, 2021 has been somewhere in between those last two campaigns. But in Weaver's only start this season -- out of four total -- here at Chase Field, Weaver was brilliant vs. the Reds, tossing seven one-hit, shutout innings with eight K's and one BB in his only victory. He returns tonight to face the 9-15 Rockies. The home team is 5-2 in the last seven meetings of these two, while the favorite is 7-2 the last nine. Take the D-Backs. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-29-21 | Pelicans -8.5 v. Thunder | Top | 109-95 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans minus the points over the Oklahoma City Thunder. Two nights ago, the Thunder snapped their 14-game losing streak with an upset win over the Boston Celtics. But off that rare victory, we'll fade OKC as a home underdog on Thursday. Indeed, home dogs of +8 (or more) points off an upset win have covered just 33% since 1991 vs. non-division foes off a straight-up loss. Take the Pelicans. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-28-21 | Jazz -9 v. Kings | Top | 154-105 | Win | 100 | 16 h 41 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Sacramento. The Kings upset Dallas, 113-106, on Monday, while the Jazz come into this game off back to back upset losses -- both to the Minnesota Timberwolves. We played on Utah in its last game and (unfortunately) lost. But we'll come right back with the Jazz tonight, as Sacramento is a terrible 19-40 ATS at home off a SU/ATS win, when it is playing an opponent off a SU/ATS loss. And NBA favorites are 71.1% ATS since 1991 off a SU loss as a double-digit road favorite, if they're playing an opponent off a win. Take Utah. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-28-21 | Padres -158 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 12-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Arizona Diamondbacks. NOTE: There's been a pitching change on the Arizona side, but we will still be on San Diego with David Weathers. We played on the Padres and Weathers last Friday as a +160 underdog vs. the Dodgers, and got the $$$ in a 3-2 victory. Here, the Padres have been installed as a road favorite vs. Arizona, and we'll once again back the rookie southpaw. Weathers has been sensational in his two starts, as he has yet to allow a run, and has surrendered just two hits and three walks in 9 1/3 innings. And both of those starts were against the best team in baseball -- the Los Angeles Dodgers -- and also one of the best pitchers, Walker Buehler. Tonight, Weathers will get a relative breather by facing Arizona and Riley Smith. Take the Padres. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-28-21 | Oilers v. Jets +102 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Winnipeg Jets over Edmonton. The Oilers thrashed the Jets on Monday, 6-1. And that was Winnipeg's fourth straight defeat, overall. But the Jets have generally been a reliable bet to bounce back off a bad game, as they're 59-35 (+24 games on the moneyline) off a loss, and 21-14 (+9 games on the moneyline) off a loss by 4+ goals. That bodes well for the Jets on Wednesday. As does the fact that Edmonton is a soft 45-61 (-20 games on the moneyline) after scoring 6+ goals in its previous game. Take Winnipeg. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-28-21 | Reds v. Dodgers -196 | Top | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Cincinnati Reds. We were 7-2 yesterday, but one of our two defeats was in this match-up. Cincinnati came back to win that game, 6-5. And that was the 2nd straight loss suffered by the Dodgers. We'll once again back the defending champs here, at home, as they'll hand the ball to their veteran lefty, Clayton Kershaw. Although Kershaw stumbled in his first start of the season, in hitter-friendly Colorado, he's been lights-out since. In his last four starts, he's surrendered just 4 runs and 16 hits in 26 innings, with 29 strikeouts and just 3 walks. He'll face Cincy's RHP, Sonny Gray, who comes into this game off a loss at St. Louis, in which he gave up 5 runs, and 9 baserunners in just 3 2-3 innings. Gray's ERA on the season is 7.87, and his WHIP is a dreadful 2.12. One of Kershaw's best situations, historically, has been pitching in the daytime, as the Dodgers are 80-28 (+35 games on the moneyline) in his daytime starts. Meanwhile, the Reds are an awful 34-56 (minus 26 games on the moneyline) in the afternoon. Take Los Angeles. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-27-21 | Reds v. Dodgers -225 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -225 | 17 h 40 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Cincinnati Reds. Walker is an ironic first name for a pitcher with a 21 to 1 K:BB ratio. Having said that, the Dodgers' young RH stud, Walker Buehler, would probably trade those stellar stats for some more wins. Bueher has had exactly two regular season victories since the end of the 2019 season despite being one of the best young hurlers in the game for a large portion of that time. Buehler gets a chance for season win number two tonight against the Reds, a team against which he has a career 1.47 ERA and 0.87 ERA, in just over 18 innings. Buehler's lone victory over the Reds came here at Dodger Stadium where he has a career record of 12-4 with a 2.39 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in 203 innings. That 2.39 ERA is almost a run-and-a-half lower than his road number of 3.84. The Dodgers are 14-1 (+10 games on the moneyline) in Buehler's last 15 starts as a home favorite of -200 or more. Despite their win on Monday, the Reds are still just 3-7 in their last 10 games vs. NL West teams, and they're a horrid 50-63 (-23 games on the moneyline) off a win. Take L.A. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-27-21 | Hurricanes -127 v. Stars | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Hurricanes over the Dallas Stars. The Hurricanes lost here last night, 4-3, in overtime. But off that defeat, we'll take the visitors in this rematch. Carolina is 8-1 on the road following a 1-goal loss to a division rival. And it's also 10-6 off a loss, generally. Meanwhile, the Stars are a poor 29-39 (minus 20 games on the moneyline) after back-to-back division wins. Take Carolina. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-27-21 | Panthers -124 v. Predators | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Florida Panthers over the Nashville Predators. The Preds blew out the Panthers, 4-1, last night. But that big loss places Florida in several of its best situational roles tonight, and Nashville in its worst. To wit: Florida is 31-16 its last 47 after allowing 4+ goals in its previous game. And it's 13-5 its last 18 off a loss. With respect to the Predators, they're 22-36 (minus 26 games on the moneyline) off back to back wins. And they're a soft 17-25 (minus 12 games on the moneyline) after allowing less than 3 goals in each of their two previous games. Take Florida to bounce back on Tuesday. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-27-21 | Nets -6.5 v. Raptors | Top | 116-103 | Win | 100 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Toronto. These Atlantic division rivals met six days ago here, in Tampa (the Raptors' home base for the season), and the Raptors prevailed, 114-103. That game, though, was a good set-up for Toronto, as it was well-rested, while the Nets had played the previous night. And neither Kevin Durant nor James Harden played for Brooklyn in that game. Durant is healthy again, and Brooklyn is currently riding a two-game win streak, with impressive wins over Boston and Phoenix. The Nets are a super 44-21 ATS on the road when playing with revenge. Take Brooklyn minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-27-21 | Marlins v. Brewers -152 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Miami Marlins. Last night, the Marlins were the first team to find success against Milwaukee RHP Corbin Burnes, as they ran roughshod over the Brewers, 8-0. But off that blowout loss, we'll back Adrian Houser and the Brew Crew tonight, as Milwaukee's 68-35 (+26 games on the moneyline) when playing with revenge from a home upset loss, while Miami is an atrocious 34-59 (minus 22 games on the moneyline) after scoring 8+ runs. Additionally, Milwaukee is a solid 256-136 (+23 games on the moneyline) as a home favorite priced at -150 (or higher), while Miami is a poor 108-177 (-20 games on the moneyline) as a road dog priced from +125 to +175. Take Adrian Houser and the Brewers today. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-27-21 | Bucks -9 v. Hornets | Top | 114-104 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Charlotte. The Bucks were stung by the Hornets in the last meeting, as Charlotte upset them, 127-119. But with revenge on its mind, and also off an upset loss in its previous game, we'll look for Milwaukee to bounce back this evening.  And Charlotte's win a few weeks ago must be taken with a grain of salt, as Giannis Antetokounmpo didn't play in that game.  But the MVP is back on the court now, and scored 31 points on Sunday vs. Atlanta. Milwaukee's 45-20 ATS as a road favorite, priced from -5.5 to -10.5 points, while Charlotte is a horrible 46-89 ATS at home vs. non-division foes playing back to back road games, if such foe failed to cover the spread in its previous game. Lay the points with the Bucks. |
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04-27-21 | Blazers -4 v. Pacers | Top | 133-112 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over the Indiana Pacers. Portland plays this game with revenge from a 24-point upset home loss to these Pacers on January 14. And that bodes well for the Blazers, as they've cashed 75% over the last 31 years as a favorite of -2 (or more) points, when playing with revenge from a double-digit home loss. And, notwithstanding its loss to Indiana in January, the Trail Blazers are still 13-3 ATS vs. the Pacers in the last 16 meetings, including 6-1 here in Indianapolis, and 7-0 ATS if Indy was off back to back SU/ATS wins. Lay the points with Portland. |
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04-27-21 | Bruins -111 v. Penguins | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Bruins over the Pittsburgh Penguins. These two teams played about as close a game as can be played on Sunday with the Penguins finally prevailing, 1-0 at home. The rematch is tonight and you can bet that with the Bruins falling even further behind in the East -- and with the Rangers trailing them by only four points -- the visitors will come out much more physically than they did in the first game. Despite the loss, Boston still has the upper hand in the season series, leading four games to three with tonight being the last meeting of the season. However, Pittsburgh is still without the services of Evgeni Malkin, a critical piece of the Penguins' overall structure (and Malkin hasn't played a game since March 16 against these Bruins). When teams hold the Bruins' offense down, the Bruins typically rebound in the next game, going 8-1 in their last nine immediately after scoring two goals or less. Boston is also 6-0 in its last six following two or more consecutive losses. Take the Bruins. |
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04-27-21 | Islanders +102 v. Capitals | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Islanders over the Washington Capitals. The Caps did what no other team has been able to do this season, and that's to hand the Islanders back-to-back home losses. Tonight's game will instead be played in the nation's capital, and we'll back the revenge-minded Islanders. New York is a solid 16-6 when playing with revenge from a home loss, and 26-16 off back-to-back losses. Take the Islanders. |
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04-26-21 | Coyotes v. Sharks -100 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the San Jose Sharks over the Arizona Coyotes. Tonight, the Sharks will try to snap their losing streak, which reached 8 games with their 6-3 home loss to the Minnesota Wild on Saturday. Meanwhile, their opponent tonight, Arizona, comes into this game off a 4-0 shutout of the Los Angeles Kings at Staples Center. Unfortunately, the Coyotes are a poor 36-62 (minus 22 games on the moneyline) off a division win, and 35-61 (minus 18 games on the moneyline) off a road win. Additionally, San Jose generally rebounds off blowout home losses, as it's 71-48 (+20 games on the moneyline) off a home loss by more than two goals. Take the Sharks. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-26-21 | Jazz -10 v. Wolves | Top | 104-105 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Minnesota. These two teams met two nights ago in Salt Lake City, and the T-Wolves stunned the Jazz, 101-96, as a 12-point underdog. And even more stunning is the fact that the 17-44 Timberwolves also defeated the 44-16 Jazz in the season's first meeting -- also in Salt Lake -- as a 9.5-point underdog, 116-111. But with revenge from those two losses, we'll lay the points with Utah tonight, as double-revenge-minded road teams have cashed 90% over the last 31 seasons if they owned a win percentage at least 33% greater than their opponent. Even worse for the T-Wolves: in the regular season, teams playing back to back games against the same opponent are a horrible 23.8% ATS since 1995 if they won the first meeting on the road as an underdog of 7 (or more) points. As faithful followers know, I love playing against bad teams off wins. And Minnesota is a wallet-breaking 5-17-1 ATS off an upset win, including 0-12 ATS when priced as an underdog from +6 to +17 points. Take Utah to blow out Minnesota. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-26-21 | Suns -2.5 v. Knicks | Top | 118-110 | Win | 100 | 3 h 52 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over New York. The Knicks come into this game off nine straight wins, including double-digit upset wins over Atlanta (137-127) and Toronto (120-103) in their last two. Unfortunately for New York, underdogs off back to back double-digit upset wins, in which they scored 120+ points, have gone 0-10 ATS. Take Phoenix to blow out New York. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-26-21 | Hurricanes -116 v. Stars | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -116 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Hurricanes over the Dallas Stars. If not for two overtime losses to two of the best teams in Division, the Hurricanes would be 5-0 in their last five games coming into tonight. On April 19, the 'Canes dropped a tough 3-2 decision to the Lightning and then on the 24th, they lost 4-3 in OT, this time to the Panthers. They revenged the Tampa loss one night later on April 20. But they won't get the chance to do the same thing to Florida as, instead, the Canes have to travel to Dallas to take on the Stars. This is a great match-up for Carolina, which is 5-1 in the last six meetings with Dallas going back to the start of the season. The Hurricanes are also a solid 14-6 in their last 20 games coming off a one-goal loss to a division rival, and 10-5 in their last 15 coming off a loss. Take Carolina. |
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04-26-21 | Lakers -10 v. Magic | Top | 114-103 | Win | 100 | 2 h 24 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over the Orlando Magic. The Lakers come into tonight's game on a 3-Game SU/ATS losing streak. But those three losses were to the Utah Jazz and Dallas Mavericks (twice). Tonight's game is against the Orlando Magic, who are on a 5-game SU/ATS losing streak (and who have lost 11 of their last 12 games). The problem for the Magic is that they've had a "red carpet" defense of late. Four of their last five opponents have shot 50% from the floor. The Magic are an atrocious 4-17-1 ATS at home vs. foes off a loss, including 1-10-1 ATS as an underdog. Lay the points. |
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04-26-21 | Hawks v. Pistons +4.5 | Top | 86-100 | Win | 100 | 2 h 24 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Pistons + the points over Atlanta. These two teams have already met twice this season, with each game won by the Hawks. But both games were competitive (Detroit lost by eight, 128-120, on December 28, and in overtime on January 20), and both games were in Atlanta. Tonight's game is in the Motor City, and we'll grab the points with the home underdog. The Pistons are competing hard this season for coach Dwane Casey, and they're at their best when they're off an ATS loss, as they're 20-5 ATS in that situation, including 8-1 ATS as a home underdog. Atlanta will be at a scheduling disadvantage tonight, as it will be unrested, and playing its 3rd game in four nights (and fifth game in seven nights). Meanwhile, the Pistons are rested. And revenge-minded NBA teams off a loss have cashed 59.2% ATS vs. unrested foes off a win that were playing their 3rd game in four nights. Take the Pistons. |
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04-26-21 | Avalanche -157 v. Blues | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -157 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Avalanche over the St. Louis Blues. The Avs, Knights, and Wild have all locked up a spot in the post-season but that doesn't mean they can cruise for the next eight games. Vegas has wrested first place away from Colorado and that could be a big deal with the likelihood of fans in the stands come playoff time. So don't look for the Avs to take a breather heading into the final 18 days of the season as they desperately would like to leapfrog the Knights to get back into first place. They are looking for revenge tonight in the third game of a three-game set in St. Louis. This is the rubber match, as Colorado took the first one on Thursday, then the Blues returned the favor on Saturday, scoring five goals in the process. That loss snapped a five-game win streak for the Avs who are hoping to get more players back from the COVID-19. The win on Saturday also snapped five straight for the Avs in this series. For technical support, consider that the Avs are 11-0 in their last 11 when revenging a same-season loss vs. an opponent. Take Colorado. |
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04-25-21 | Padres +111 v. Dodgers | Top | 8-7 | Win | 111 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Los Angeles Dodgers. It's hard to believe that L.A.'s Dustin May is only 23 years old. The big (6' 6") fire-balling RH pitches with the kind of confidence that makes it seem like he's been doing it for many years. May is following up his excellent sophomore season, in which he went 3-1 with a 2.57 ERA in 12 games (10 starts), with another fantastic campaign -- at least so far -- in 2021. In three starts covering 15 1/3 innings, May is 1-1 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.11 WHIP with 22 strikeouts and only four walks (a 5.50 K:BB ratio). But even May's great numbers don't compare with what San Diego's Joe Musgrove is doing. The Padres' righty has trotted out to the mound in four games this season, and has given up just 3 runs over 26 innings (1.04 ERA), including a no-hitter vs. Texas. And Musgrove's K:BB ratio is a jaw-dropping 12.33 (37 K, 3 BB), while his WHIP is 0.53. In all of baseball, only Milwaukee's Corbin Burnes is putting up better numbers in 2021. So far, in this hotly-contested Southern California rivalry, we're 3-0 this season. Last Sunday, we took Blake Snell as a home underdog, and easily won. We also played on the Padres as a big underdog with David Weathers this past Friday, and got the $$$. And then we came back with the Dodgers last night, and won with Trevor Bauer. Tonight, there's only one way to look with Musgrove installed as an underdog. Take the Padres. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
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04-25-21 | Bruins -110 v. Penguins | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
At 3:05 pm, on NBC TV, our selection is on the Boston Bruins over the Pittsburgh Penguins. There are few teams in the league as hot as the Penguins right now. Pittsburgh has won six of its last eight games and it's been having all of this success despite the loss of C Evegeni Malkin who continues to miss time due to a lower body injury. The Pens actually took over first place in the East briefly after they beat the Devils yesterday afternoon -- that is, until the Caps won later in the day and jumped back on top. Boston currently sits in fourth place, six points behind the Caps. But Boston has also played two less games than each of the other three contenders. Don't be surprised if the final eight games is a real back-and-forth between the Caps, Pens, Bruins, and Isles who have separated themselves from the rest of the pack in their Division. So this is a quick turnaround for the Pens. The Bruins come into today's game also off a loss to the Sabres but they are still 21-10 in the last 31 meetings with the Pens. Take Boston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-25-21 | Celtics -8 v. Hornets | Top | 104-125 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Charlotte. This series has been dominated lately by the Celtics, as they've won the last four meetings by 21, 26, 17 and 30 points. Even better for Boston: it's 16-3-1 ATS over the last 20 meetings, including 10-1 ATS if the Hornets were off a win, and 7-0 ATS if Boston was laying 7+ points. Boston does come into this game off a SU/ATS loss to the Brooklyn Nets, but it's a solid 34-18-2 ATS as a rested favorite, away from home, off a loss. Meanwhile, the Hornets are a wallet-busting 24-47-2 ATS at home off a SU/ATS win, if matched up against a rested, non-division foe off a loss. Lay the points with the Celtics. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-25-21 | Nationals v. Mets -145 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Washington Nationals. When Taijuan Walker came into the league in 2013, the then-20-year-old Mariners' RH was touted as one of the top pitching prospects in the game. And in the first couple of seasons -- with a small sample size -- it appeared that he might fulfill that promise. But serious injuries derailed Walker's ascension to the top of the Major League pitching ladder. In a comeback season in 2020, Walker finally blossomed. And at age 27 there still seemed to be plenty of opportunity ahead if he can stay healthy. Walker pitched a full season of 11 starts and posted a very nice 2.70 and 1.16 WHIP in 53 1/3 innings with the Mariners and Blue Jays before signing a free agent contract with the Mets this past February. Walker has followed that up with a 3.21 ERA in three starts so far in 2021. Here at home, Walker has posted a 2.61 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in two starts covering 10 1/3 innings. And his teams have won eight of his last 10 starts. He'll match up against a struggling Patrick Corbin this afternoon. Washington's veteran lefty has a 10.95 ERA, and a 1.86 WHIP. Even worse, dating back to last season, the Nats have lost 10 of his last 11 starts. Finally, the Nationals are just 4-9 in the last 13 meetings here at Citi Field. Take the Mets. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-24-21 | Padres v. Dodgers -141 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the San Diego Padres. When these two teams played six days ago in San Diego, the two starters that went to the mound were the same ones that are scheduled for tonight's game. We played on San Diego in that game last Sunday, and LHP Blake Snell and the Padres prevailed, 5-2. Now, Snell will face off once again opposite the Dodgers' latest ace, RH Trevor Bauer, and we'll switch gears, and take Los Angeles tonight. The 30-year-old Bauer won the NL Cy Young award last season and now he will have a great opportunity to win the top pitching award in back-to-back seasons, as he's playing for the best team in his career. Bauer is 2-0 with a 2.42 ERA and 0.62 WHIP through his first four starts covering 26 innings for the Dodgers. Despite all of the Padres' recent success, let's not forget that they are 17-41 in the last 58 meetings with the Dodgers and 20-48 in the last 68 meetings here at Dodger Stadium. Finally, Snell's teams are 8-12 (-12 games on the moneyline) in their last 20 road games. Take the Dodgers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-24-21 | Capitals v. Islanders -130 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -130 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Islanders over the Washington Capitals. The Caps and Islanders played what has been a rare type of game recently on Thursday night. After 65 minutes of play at the Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, neither team had scored and the game went to a shootout. The Caps prevailed to take over the outright lead in the MassMutual East Division which points to a crucial game tonight as the Isles try to gain revenge. The Isles picked up RW Kyle Palmieri at the trade deadline from the Devils, and so far the 30-year-old has not disappointed in his eight games with the club. This series has not been kind to the visitors recently as Thursday's Caps victory was the first win for the road team in the last six meetings of these two. Revenge situations are generally a good thing for the Islanders as New York is 5-1 (+4 games on the moneyline) in its last six revenging a home loss vs. an opponent. Moreover, the Caps are 12-15 (-5 games on the moneyline) off a one-goal win over a division rival. Take the Islanders. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-24-21 | Brewers -108 v. Cubs | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
At 2:20 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs have had their offensive issues this season -- a team batting average of .215 -- but they didn't have any issues on Friday. Chicago blasted the Brewers by a 15-2 final, knocking starter Brett Anderson out of the game after just 1/3 of an inning. This afternoon, it will be Freddy Peralta going for Milwaukee. The veteran RH was a strikeout machine when he entered the Majors in 2018 and he has improved his punch-out numbers every year since. Peralta posted a ridiculous strikeout rate of 14.4 last season and so far in 2021 he has actually bettered that number, ringing up an absurd 15.5 batters every nine innings he's been on the mound. Being on the road doesn't seem to bother the Brewers as the Crew is 7-2 in its last nine road games coming into Saturday. They're also 6-3 in their last nine day games. Meanwhile, the Cubs are 4-9 (-7 games on the moneyline) in their last 13 games against teams with a RH starter. Take Milwaukee. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-23-21 | Reds -106 v. Cardinals | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -106 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Reds over the St. Louis Cardinals. The Reds may be glad to get out of Cincy, and even happier about the fact that they don't have to see the Diamondbacks for a while. It was an ugly three-game series at home against Arizona as the D-Backs swept the Reds, plating 27 runs in the process. Tonight, Busch Stadium is the venue and the Reds will turn to veteran RHP Sonny Gray to get them out of their funk. Gray had a delayed start to his season due to a back issue but appears to be fully recovered now. His first start was six days ago against the Indians and, as expected, Gray was a bit rusty and limited in his pitch count, but he didn't do badly. Expect things to improve tonight and, if Gray can work efficiently, he should stay on the mound longer than the 4 1/3 innings he lasted against Cleveland. Despite the Cards' dominance in this division, this has been a good match-up for the Reds who are 5-2 in the last seven meetings. The Reds are also 5-1 in their last six vs. division opponents. Take Cincy. As always, good luck...Al McMordie
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04-23-21 | Predators -121 v. Blackhawks | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Nashville Predators over the Chicago Blackhawks. The Blackhawks prevailed over the Preds on Wednesday, 5-4, but it took overtime to do it. And it also took a huge effort by Chicago goalie Malcolm Subban, who faced 40 shots by the Predators attackers and stopped 36 of them. On Friday, the Blackhawks may turn to #1 net-minder Kevin Lankinen for this 2nd game of this three-game set vs. Nashville (though it's also possible Subban will play back-to-back games). Regardless of who is between the pipes, we'll be on Nashville. With respect to Subban, he has a below average 89.7 Saves Pct. at home this season. Meanwhile, Lankinen is a 25-year-old rookie from Finland who has played in 33 of the Blackhawks' 47 games but the heavy workload may be taking its toll on him. Lankinen has allowed 19 goals in his last five starts for a GAA of 3.80 over that span. He also gave up five goals on just 22 shots faced in his last start, which was the first game of this series in Nashville, on April 19. For technical support, consider that the Blackhawks are 7-16 (-8 games on the moneyline) in their last 23 after winning at home vs. a division rival. Take the Predators. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-23-21 | Flyers v. Rangers -165 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Rangers over the Philadelphia Flyers. It's been a season to forget for the Flyers and you can sum up the problem in two words -- defense and goaltending. As in a complete lack of both. The Flyers have a team GAA of 3.48 this season and that's worse than the Ducks, Sabres, and Devils and, if not for the Senators, it would be the highest in the league. Don't be surprised if there are changes made in the off-season (and likely some coaching changes as well). In fact, with the defense this team has had it's a testament to the Philly offense that the Flyers have managed to win 20 of 45 games this season. The goaltending did show up last night as the Flyers beat this Rangers club, 3-2, although they allowed 35 shots, so the defense was still lacking. This is a quick turnaround and that's not been a good scenario lately for Philly as it is 0-4 in the last four games on zero days of rest. The Rangers are also 6-2 in their last eight home games. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-22-21 | Padres +160 v. Dodgers | Top | 3-2 | Win | 160 | 18 h 57 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Los Angeles Dodgers. Rookie southpaw Ryan (son of David) Weathers earned another start after his solid performance last week vs. the Dodgers (and mound opponent, Walker Buehler). In that game -- the first of 19 regular season games between these SoCal rivals -- Weathers gave up 0 ER in 3 2-3 innings, and allowed just 1 hit and 2 walks. San Diego ended up falling to the Dodgers, 11-6, in extra innings, and lost two of the three games in that series. We played on the Padres as a home underdog in the third game of that series against the Dodgers' Trevor Bauer, and got the $$$ when the Padres pulled off the mild upset. San Diego is a bigger underdog today. Indeed, it's the biggest price on San Diego yet this season. And we'll take the live underdog, as the Padres are 10-9 (+7.4 games on the moneyline) when priced as a road underdog of +150 or more. Take San Diego. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-22-21 | Marlins v. Giants -137 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 32 m | Show |
At 9:45 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Miami Marlins. Whereas NL teams like the Braves, Cardinals, and Nats have struggled this season, the Giants and Marlins have done much better than expected. The Giants even have a winning record. And even though the Marlins are still under the .500 mark, they are very close and seem like they've been in just about every game they've played regardless of the outcome. For the Giants, they're finding success with their veterans leading the way...guys like Posey, Belt, and Cueto. On the other hand, it's been mostly young guns for the Fish. So it's fitting that tonight's pitching match-up features an eight-year MLB veteran for the Giants in RH Aaron Sanchez vs. a second-year rookie in LH Daniel Castano. It's true that Sanchez is still looking for his first win of 2021, but he has pitched well enough to have at least two victories at this point, posting a 2.45 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in his three starts covering just under 15 innings. It won't hurt Sanchez tonight that Oracle Park has not been friendly to the Fish lately, as Miami is just 1-4 in its last five tries here. Take the Giants. |
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04-22-21 | Pistons v. Spurs -8.5 | Top | 91-106 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Detroit. This game will be the 2nd in two nights for Detroit, and also its fifth game in seven nights. Unfortunately for Detroit, the Spurs have generally done well vs. unrested teams, as they've gone 100-73 ATS. But those numbers zoom to 25-9 ATS if the Spurs are off an upset loss, including 5-1 ATS if San Antonio's foe was playing its fifth game in seven nights. Last night, Gregg Popovich's crew were embarrassed here, at home, by the Miami Heat, 107-87. We'll play on the Silver and Black to rebound this evening, as San Antonio is 41-12-2 ATS as a favorite off a loss by more than 17 points, when matched up against a foe off an ATS win. Take San Antone. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-22-21 | Mariners v. Red Sox -163 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -163 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Seattle Mariners. Here are two teams that were expected to be also-rans in their respective divisions. It's early, but so far the Mariners and Red Sox have been two of the biggest surprises in the AL this season. Seattle is 11-7 and sitting fairly comfortably in second place in the West while the Red Sox, at 12-7, are all alone atop the East. Boston is pretty good at grabbing starting pitchers off the MLB scrap heap and bringing them back to life. The Sox did it three seasons ago with Nathan Eovaldi. And now Eovaldi is having his best season ever -- albeit in a small sample size. But the latest reclamation project is 28-year-old RH Nick Pivetta. Pivetta was toiling in Philly as a middle reliever when Boston picked him up last August and he hasn't looked back, assuming a full time rotation job, while going 2-0 in three starts with a 3.68 ERA. Pivetta's teams are 7-1 in his last eight starts as a home favorite. Meanwhile, the Mariners are a wallet-busting 17-40 in the last 57 meetings in Boston.  Take the Red Sox. |
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04-21-21 | Wolves v. Kings -5 | Top | 125-128 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 47 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings minus the points over Minnesota. These two teams met here, in Sacramento, last night. And the Timberwolves came away with a 134-120 upset win. Unfortunately for Minnesota, unrested teams off upset wins the previous day, have covered just 37% since Dec. 21, 1990, if they scored more than 130 points in that upset win. Moreover, Minnesota is a poor 27-46-1 ATS off an upset road win, including 6-21 ATS when priced between +3 and +8 points. Take the Kings. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-21-21 | Pistons v. Mavs -12.5 | Top | 117-127 | Loss | -112 | 16 h 16 m | Show |
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over Detroit. The Mavs were upset by Sacramento, here at home, in their previous game, while Detroit upset the Cavaliers in its most recent game. That bodes well for the Mavericks, as they're 116-72 ATS off a loss when playing an opponent off a win. Lay the points. |
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04-21-21 | Hawks +2 v. Knicks | Top | 127-137 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 46 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks + the points over the New York Knicks. Last night, New York covered the point spread in its 10th straight game. But we'll fade New York tonight, as home teams have covered just 13% of the time off 10+ ATS wins in the regular season, if they also covered the spread by 5+ points in their previous game. Take Atlanta + the points. |
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04-21-21 | Diamondbacks v. Reds -166 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -166 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Reds over the Arizona Diamondbacks. This game will follow the resumption of yesterday's suspended game (which Arizona was winning, 5-4, in the top of the 8th inning). The listed pitchers are Tyler Mahle and Merrill Kelly. Mahle came into the Majors in 2017 as a 7th round pick of the Reds with (not surprisingly) with very little fanfare. His first three seasons in the league did little to change the lack of excitement around him as the RH posted some uninspiring numbers over that span. But in 2020, the then-25-year-old Mahle very quietly put a nice little season together with a 3.59 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 10 games (nine starts), while improving his strikeout rate to a career-high 11.3 per nine innings. That is, until this season when Mahle has become even more of a K machine, punching out over 14 batters every nine innings thus far, in his three starts covering 14 innings. Mahle gets start number four this evening, and it will be his second of the season vs. the D-Backs. In his first outing on April 9, he went four scoreless innings in a 6-5 Cincy victory. Mahle has also done his best work at home lately as the Reds are 4-0 in his last four starts here at Great American Ball Park. Take Cincinnati. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-20-21 | Rangers v. Angels -198 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 19 h 51 m | Show |
At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Angels over the Texas Rangers. We will forgive Shohei Ohtani for only having one start in 2021 up to this point. The 26-year-old Japanese superstar has been busy crushing balls, driving in runs, and even stealing the occasional base as a DH this season. There may not be much argument anymore that Ohtani is more valuable to this club as an everyday hitter. But given the state of the Angels' rotation and the fact that Ohtani is probably good enough to be a #3 starter on most teams, he will continue to get regular starts assuming he's healthy. Start number two for the RH comes tonight against a Rangers team which has had some production issues lately (notwithstanding Monday's 6-run outburst). Veteran RHP Jordan Lyles will get the start for Texas and, although his ERA (4.70) is better than last season, that's not saying much. In 2020, Lyles led the league with 45 earned runs allowed, which resulted in a scary 7.02 ERA. And his teams are a horrid 24-50 (minus 13 games on the moneyline) as a road underdog in his career starts. Despite their victory yesterday, the Rangers are still just 1-5 in their last six games vs. RH starters, and 44-75 (minus 17 games on the moneyline) their last 119 on the road. Take Los Angeles. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-20-21 | Hurricanes +102 v. Lightning | Top | 4-1 | Win | 102 | 2 h 16 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Hurricanes over the Tampa Bay Lightning. Tampa Bay won last night against Carolina, 3-2, but we'll take the 'Canes in this rematch. Carolina is a fantastic 13-5 this season vs. winning teams, and 25-12 (+11 games on the moneyline) when playing without rest. It's also 28-17 off a division loss. Meanwhile, the Lightning are a poor 16-17 (minus 13 games on the moneyline) after winning its previous game in overtime. Take Carolina. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-20-21 | Giants v. Phillies -151 | Top | 10-7 | Loss | -151 | 16 h 18 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the San Francisco Giants. Logan Webb is a perfect example why you need to ignore spring training statistics. Webb's numbers this spring were completely off the charts -- one run on seven hits in 17 innings (a 0.53 ERA) with 22 strikeouts and two walks. Pretty impressive, right? The only problem is that the 24-year-old Giants RH has a career MLB ERA of over five runs, and a career WHIP of over 1.50 (his minor league numbers weren't much better for the most part). And so far this season, Webb is 0-1 with a 4.76 ERA in three appearances, including two starts, covering 11 1/3 innings. He has a tough assignment tonight as well, having to face a Phillies team which will put a proven starter on the mound in veteran RH Zach Wheeler. Wheeler is 1-2 with a 3.00 ERA in three starts covering 18 innings. The Giants took the first game of this three-game series last night, but the Phillies are still 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these two here at Citizens Bank Park. Take Philadelphia. |
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04-20-21 | Dodgers -190 v. Mariners | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Seattle Mariners. Los Angeles lost back-to-back games for the first time last night. The Dodgers certainly had their chances, but were unable to get the key hits they needed to mount a comeback win. In the 9th inning, Mookie Betts was hit in his forearm by a pitch, so it would not be a surprise if he is held out of this afternoon game. But we'll still back the defending champs today, as Seattle is an awful 27-49 (minus 14 games on the moneyline) vs. left-handed starters, and 27-64 (minus 16 games on the moneyline) as underdogs of +150 (or more).  And Julio Urias is one of the best (and one of my favorite) lefties in baseball. The Dodgers are 3-0 behind Urias this season and, in his career, are 10-3 (+4 games on the moneyline) as road favorites with him on the mound. Take the Dodgers. |
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04-19-21 | Dodgers -190 v. Mariners | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -190 | 15 h 10 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Seattle Mariners. While most of the attention on the Dodgers' stacked pitching staff has been heaped on Trevor Bauer, Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler, young Dustin May just goes out and does his thing. And May's thing is striking out hitters with some of the nastiest pitches in the league. At the end of the day, it might be May who actually possesses the best pure stuff on this team. It's for that reason that the Dodgers will be cautious with the 23-year-old RH and he will likely be on a strict pitch count in most, if not all of his starts. May has a stellar 1.74 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in two starts covering 10 1/3 innings. And start number three will come tonight against the Mariners in the first of a two-game series. Not surprisingly, tonight will be May's first career appearance vs. Seattle and it's a good bet that pitcher-friendly Safeco Field will agree with the young fireballer. May is undefeated (3-0) with a 1.93 ERA in eight games (five starts) against AL opponents. Take the Dodgers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. Â
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04-19-21 | Brewers +136 v. Padres | Top | 3-1 | Win | 136 | 15 h 9 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the San Diego Padres. The Padres salvaged their series with their Division rivals L.A. by taking Game 3 on Sunday (and beating last season's Cy Young Award winner in the process). But one day later they have to face another one of the NL's best in the Brewers' RH Brandon Woodruff. And Milwaukee comes into this three-game series with quite a chip on its shoulder after losing two of three to the lowly Pirates. Woodruff has improved his numbers every year he's been in the Majors. And so far 2021 is no different as the 28-year-old has posted a terrific 2.12 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in three starts covering 17 innings. Perhaps most important is he has yet to give up a home run and has a 6.33 K:BB ratio (19 Ks and 3 walks). RH Joe Musgrove did hurl the first no-hitter in the league this season (and first in Padres history) but his numbers vs. the Brewers are not good. In five career starts, covering 29 1/3 innings against the Crew, Musgrove is 0-2 with a 6.14 ERA. Take Milwaukee in this underdog role. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.Â
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04-19-21 | Senators v. Flames -200 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -200 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Calgary Flames over the Ottawa Senators. The Flames lost to the Canadiens in their previous game by a tough 2-1 final despite out-shooting the Habs and limiting them to just 20 shots on goal. The loss snapped a three game win streak by Calgary and defense has not been the problem for the Flames as they have allowed just 90 shots over their last four games (an average of just 22.5 per game over that span). Now they get Ottawa, which just shut out the aforementioned Habs, 4-0, on Saturday. The Sens are the opposite of the Flames, having allowed 32.5 shots per game which is the fourth-highest number in the league this season. That, combined with the fact that the home team is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings, would seem to make this the perfect match-up for the Flames to get back on track. The Flames are 9-1 (+9 games on the moneyline) revenging two straight losses, in which they scored one goal or less. And the clincher is that the Senators are a horrid 0-19 in their last 19 games coming off a win by more than a goal over a division rival. Take Calgary. As always, good luck...AL McMordie.
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04-18-21 | Dodgers v. Padres +112 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 112 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Los Angeles Dodgers. Tonight is a chance for Blake Snell to get some revenge. Snell was on the mound against the Dodgers in last year's World Series Game 6 -- the final game of the series that was won by L.A. despite Snell pitching brilliantly. And this afternoon, the 28-year-old southpaw will have arguably a better team behind than he did when he was starting for the Rays last fall. The Padres finished last season with the second-best record in the NL and they have improved themselves over the off-season and figure to give the Dodgers -- favored by everyone to return to the World Series -- a run for their money. Snell has a 4.35 ERA through his first three starts but that number is a bit misleading. He lasted less than an inning in his last start which was in Pittsburgh rather than pitcher-friendly Petco Park. In his two starts here, Snell has allowed two earned runs in 9 2/3 IP with 16 K's. Snell's teams are also 14-6 (+3 games on the moneyline) in his last 20 home starts. And he has a career 2.25 ERA vs. the Dodgers in three starts. Los Angeles will hand the ball to RHP Trevor Bauer this afternoon. Unfortunately, Bauer is a dismal 0-4 vs. the Padres with an ERA north of 5 runs a game. Finally, Snell's teams are 27-19 (plus 8 games on the moneyline) with him on the hill, when the odds range from +125 to -125, while Bauer's teams are a poor 18-25 (minus 8 games on the moneyline) on the road in the same price range. Take the Padres. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-18-21 | Pelicans +2.5 v. Knicks | Top | 112-122 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans + the points over the New York Knicks. It's often said that "all good things must come to an end," and that's the case today with the Knicks ATS win streak. Dating back to April 3, New York has covered its last eight games. But New York is a horrid 0-12 ATS if it was on a 7-game (or better) ATS win streak, and wasn't getting 6+ points in its current game. This is also a rematch of a game won by the Knicks, 116-106, in New Orleans this past Wednesday. But New York is a wallet-breaking 34.6% ATS over the last 31 years as a favorite of more than 2 points against a non-conference foe it upset in the previous meeting earlier in the season. Finally, New Orleans comes into this game off back to back upset defeats. However, the Pelicans are 8-1 ATS their last 9 off two straight upset losses. Take the points with New Orleans. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-18-21 | Cardinals v. Phillies -176 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 60 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the St. Louis Cardinals. There's no doubt that Aaron Nola is the ace of the Phillies' staff, but with starters like Zach Wheeler and an improving Zach Eflin by his side, the team is hoping that the 27-year-old RH won't have to shoulder as much of the load this season. Although he's still looking for his first win, Nola is putting up his normal ace-like numbers with a 3.45 ERA, 10.3 strikeout rate, and 6.00 K:BB ratio through his first three starts. He's had plenty of success against the Cards in his career, going 4-2 with a 2.35 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in six starts vs. St. Louis covering just over 38 innings. This afternoon is the rubber match of a three-game series and, despite the Cards victory on Saturday, the Phillies are 5-2 in the last seven meetings and 4-2 in the last six here at Citizens Bank Park. The Phils are also 19-7 (plus 6 games on the moneyline) in Nola's last 26 starts as a home favorite of at least -150. Meanwhile, the Cards are 6-11 in their last 17 as an underdog of +150 or higher. Take the Phils. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-17-21 | Blackhawks -138 v. Red Wings | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 16 h 22 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Blackhawks over the Detroit Red Wings. The Capitals had been coveting the Red Wings most talented forward, Anthony Mantha, for some time and on the final day of the trade deadline, Washington worked a deal for the 6' 5", 240 lb winger. Detroit got two nice players in Richard Panik and Jakub Vrana, but the two of them together don't add to what Mantha brought to the ice on a nightly basis. But the Wings also let go several defensemen before the deadline and in the long run that could have a bigger impact than the loss of Mantha. They face a Blackhawks team tonight that looks like it will be fighting for a playoff spot right down to the wire. The Hawks are in fifth place in the Central -- one point ahead of the Stars -- and they hope to pick up two points tonight in a revenge situation, as the Wings prevailed on Thursday, 4-1. The Hawks are 9-3 in the last 12 meetings, and 4-2 in the last six here in Detroit. Meanwhile, the Wings are a poor 5-15 in their last 20 after allowing one goal or less in their previous game. Take Chicago. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-17-21 | Giants +120 v. Marlins | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 22 m | Show |
At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Miami Marlins. Remember Aaron Sanchez? The RHP broke into the Majors in 2014 as a 21-year-old with the Toronto Blue Jays. Sanchez went on to post three solid seasons culminating with his 2016 campaign in which he went 15-2 with a league-leading 3.00 ERA and an All Star selection. But in the three seasons that followed, Sanchez went 10-23 with an ERA right around five runs as he struggled to get back to the form he displayed in his early years. Now with the Giants, Sanchez is looking to resurrect his career. And so far 2021 has been a return to form for the 28-year-old. It's a small sample size, but in two starts covering 10 innings, Sanchez has posted a 2.70 ERA, with three ER on nine hits, with seven strikeouts and only one walk. RHP Sandy Alcantara will get the start for the Marlins this evening. Miami is 7-14 in Alcantara's last 21 home starts. And the Marlins are also a wallet-breaking 46-71 (-13 games on the moneyline) in their last 117 home games. Take the Giants. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-17-21 | Indians +121 v. Reds | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Cincinnati Reds. RHP Triston McKenzie pretty much burst on the scene in the COVID-shortened 2020 season for the Indians. In eight games -- six starts -- the 23-year-old string bean (he's listed at 6'5" and 165 lbs) posted some solid numbers with a 3.24 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 42 strikeouts and nine walks, in 33 1/3 innings. McKenzie started out 2021 with a relief appearance and then got a start his next time out, last Monday, against the White Sox. He's lined up for his second start this afternoon against Sonny Gray and the Reds. It will be Gray's season debut as the veteran RHP has been hampered by a back injury which limited his Spring training to just two innings. With Trevor Bauer gone to the Dodgers, Gray has the talent to become the co-number one starter on the team this season, but he will likely need a few starts to get to that level. Despite their surprising early success this season, the Reds are just 33-52 (-23 games on the moneyline) in their last 85 day games. Take the Indians. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-16-21 | Heat -1.5 v. Wolves | Top | 111-119 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 3 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat minus the points over the Minnesota Timberwolves. This will be Miami's final game in its 4-game road trip. And, after losing back to back games against Phoenix and Denver, Miami will no doubt be happy to play the NBA's worst team tonight. Minnesota has won just 14 of its 56 games this season. And, since 1990, losing teams are a poor 43% ATS as home dogs in non-division games vs. rested, winning teams off back to back losses. Additionally, Miami is 25-6 ATS away from home off back to back SU/ATS losses. Take the Heat. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-16-21 | Indians v. Reds -107 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Reds over the Cleveland Indians. The Reds will hand the ball to Jeff Hoffman tonight, while Cleveland will start Logan Allen. This will be Allen's first road start this season. And he's been a much worse pitcher away from home (8.10 ERA) compared to his outings at home (3.60 ERA). Hoffman will be making his second start at home, and his first one was brilliant, as he gave up just 1 run over 5 innings, in a 12-1 Cincy victory vs. the Cardinals. Overall, the Reds have won their last five at home. And that bodes well, especially given that Cleveland is a poor 18-24 (minus 7.4 games on the moneyline) on the road, when priced from +125 to -125. Take the Reds in this opening game of this 3-game series. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-16-21 | Cardinals v. Phillies -135 | Top | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 14 h 4 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the St. Louis Cardinals. The final game of Philadelphia's series against the Mets was postponed due to weather on Thursday, and that does three things for the Phils. First, it allows them to skip meeting the best pitcher in NL in Jacob deGrom (although we actually liked the value of Eflin as a +220 underdog yesterday). Second, it gives RHP Zach Eflin an extra day of rest, which is not a bad thing, as the Phillies are 19-13 after a day off, while St. Louis is a poor 10-21 in the same situation. And, third, Eflin is now favored, and the Phillies are 18-10 (+4.4 games on the moneyline) as a favorite, with him on the mound. Eflin has been very good in his two starts so far this season. In 13 innings, he has a 3.46 ERA with 10 strikeouts and only two walks. The Cards will go with veteran RH Carlos Martinez who began life in the Majors as a starter before transitioning to the bullpen and is now back in the rotation. To say that Martinez's return to the rotation has been rough would be a big understatement. Last season, C-Mart started five games and went 0-3 with a 9.90 ERA. And so far through two starts in 2021, he is picking up where he left off in 2020, with an 0-2 record, 6.30 ERA, and 1.40 WHIP. St. Louis is also 1-4 in the last five meetings and 2-5 in the last seven in Philly. Take the Phils. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-16-21 | Flames v. Canadiens -130 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Montreal Canadiens over the Calgary Flames. The Canadiens decided to exercise caution at the trade deadline, and were calculated in their player moves. Montreal did make some substantial deals, but didn't go crazy and mortgage its future in the process. The Habs brought in veteran C Eric Staal, and only gave up a third and fifth rounder in return. Then they shored up their defense by acquiring Jon Merrill from Detroit and Erik Gustafsson from the Flyers. Certainly, these are not earth-shattering moves, but they may be enough to take them to the next level this upcoming post-season. Tonight, they will seek revenge against the Flames, who beat them on Wednesday, 4-1. That victory was Calgary's third in a row, following on the heels of a four-game losing streak. Unfortunately for Calgary, it is 5-14 (-14 games on the moneyline) in its last 19 off a road blowout win by three or more goals, while the Habs are 10-3 (+7 games on the moneyline) in their last 13 off of a home blowout loss. Take Montreal. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-15-21 | Bucks -4.5 v. Hawks | Top | 120-109 | Win | 100 | 1 h 17 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks over the Atlanta Hawks. Giannis Antetokounmpo has just been upgraded to 'probable,' so we'll put the trigger on the Bucks. Both teams do come into this game on win streaks. The Bucks routed the Magic by 37, and the Timberwolves by 25. Meanwhile, Atlanta's won its last three in a row, including back to back upset wins over Charlotte and Toronto in their last two. Generally speaking, I like to go against teams off back to back upset wins, and especially if they're matched up against foes also in good form, off back to back wins, themselves. Dating back to 1990, our teams off back to back upset wins are a poor 166-228 ATS. That doesn't bode well for Atlanta tonight. Nor does the fact that the Hawks have lost 11 of the last 12 meetings, straight-up, vs. Milwaukee. And Atlanta's only win was by a single point, 136-135, in overtime. Finally, Atlanta's a poor 20-39 ATS as home dogs off a win, if they're matched up against a non-division foe. Lay the points with Milwaukee. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-15-21 | Panthers v. Lightning -155 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 36 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the Florida Panthers. The Central Division is the most competitive in the league with three teams tied for the lead with 58 points as of this writing. Although the Lightning is one of those teams, the Defending Cup Champions have still suffered some bad losses this season. But none of Tampa's defeats has been any worse than what the Predators did two nights ago, crushing the Bolts by a 7-2 final. Back-up goalie Curtis McElhinney was in net for the Lightning in that one and the coaches opted not to pull him even when things got out of hand, presumably so they would have a fresh Andrei Vasilevskiy for tonight. McElhinney doesn't see much time in place of Tampa's #1 man and Tuesday showed why. We played on Florida in its last game, but it took overtime against a banged-up Stars team for the Panthers to break their three game losing streak with a 3-2 victory, on Tuesday. The Lightning are a super 32-8 (+19 games on the moneyline) in their last 40 immediately following a loss by more than a goal in their previous game. Take Tampa. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-14-21 | Ducks v. Sharks -168 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -168 | 18 h 13 m | Show |
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the San Jose Sharks over the Anaheim Ducks. The only way to describe the Sharks' last game against this Ducks team is as a complete embarrassment. The Sharks were not only beaten by the worst team in the Division, but they were also shut out, 4-0. Even if the Sharks won't go down as the only team to get blanked by the Ducks this season -- Anaheim has also done the deed to the Knights, Coyotes, and Wild -- it was still a game it would like to forget. However, if there was a positive takeaway from Monday night's debacle, it was that San Jose out-shot Anaheim by a lopsided 46-21. With Devan Dubnyk having departed San Jose via trade, Martin Jones is now the main man in goal and no doubt he will be looking for some redemption tonight after a poor performance on Monday. A shutout may have been welcomed by Anaheim, but it doesn't bode well for the Ducks tonight as they are just 2-6 in their last eight after blanking their opponent (0-3 in their last three in those rare situations). Meanwhile, San Jose is 45-18 at home off a home loss by more than two goals, and 10-4 off a shutout defeat. Take the Sharks. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-14-21 | Mavs -1.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 114-113 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 16 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks over the Memphis Grizzlies. The Mavs come into tonight's game off back to back home losses, including an 18-point blowout at the hands of the Philly 76ers. I love Dallas to rebound off those defeats, and get the W tonight at Memphis. Indeed, the Mavs are 24-6 straight-up, and 23-6-1 ATS their last 30 as road favorites of less than 7 points, including a perfect 4-0 ATS off back to back losses. Even better: Dallas is a terrific 77-39-1 ATS off a loss by 14+ points. And it's 116-71 ATS off a loss, if its opponent was off a straight-up win. Take the Mavericks. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-14-21 | Tigers v. Astros -230 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -230 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over Detroit. After dropping Games 1 + 2 in this three-game series, the Astros will look to salvage things with a win in Game 3, tonight. Lance McCullers, Jr. will get the start for the Astros, and he's been a model of consistency in his two starts this season. McCullers went five innings in each start, and also gave up just one run, two hits and three walks in both of those starts! Tonight, McCullers will face a Tigers team, which will hand the ball to Michael Fulmer. Unfortunately for Detroit, Fulmer is 0-2 in his career vs. Houston, with an ERA north of 6 runs per game, and a WHIP of 1.79. The Tigers are a dreadful 43-133 (minus 32 games on the moneyline) as an underdog of +200 (or higher), and 11-28 (minus 13 games on the moneyline) after allowing 2 or less runs in their previous game. Take Houston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-14-21 | Phillies -113 v. Mets | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the New York Mets. Like any MLB starter, the Phils' RH Zack Wheeler wants to win every time he goes out to the mound. But the 30-year-old has got to feel an additional incentive whenever he faces the Mets. It was New York, after all, which decided to not give Wheeler a contract extension in 2019 after he had been there for his first seven MLB seasons. And when that contract season came to a head, Wheeler had just completed his second straight winning campaign and looked for certain like a pitcher who New York would want to lock up. But, instead, Wheeler was granted free agency and he ended up signing with the Phillies -- a move that no doubt he is happy with now. Wheeler went 4-2 with a 2.92 ERA in 11 starts in 2020. And he started out this season with a bang, tossing seven innings of one-hit ball in a shutout win against Atlanta. The Mets beat this Phillies team in both games of the double-header on Tuesday, but they are just 25-46 (minus 16 games on the moneyline) in their last 71 games as an underdog of +150 (or less). Take the Phils. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-14-21 | Reds -110 v. Giants | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
At 3:45 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Reds over the San Francisco Giants. Yesterday, we played on the Giants behind Kevin Gausman, and were rewarded with a 7-6 come-from-behind victory. Today, we'll switch gears, and take the road team, Cincinnati. The Reds will hand the ball to RHP Tyler Mahle, who has been terrific this season. Mahle has made two starts, and threw four shutout innings last Friday at Arizona, and gave up just two earned runs over five innings vs. the Cardinals, back on April 3. Today, Mahle will match up against the Giants' Johnny Cueto, who has a career 4.50 ERA vs. the Reds. Cincy is 11-6 behind Mahle, when installed as a favorite. Take the Reds. |
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04-14-21 | Cubs v. Brewers -160 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
At 1:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Chicago Cubs. The Brewers' Corbin Burnes has been as effective as any pitcher in baseball through his first two starts. He's faced the Twins and Cardinals, and has given up just 1 run over 12 1-3 innings, while allowing just two baserunners (!!!), and striking out 20 batters. Today, Burnes will take on Jake Arrieta and the Cubs. Chicago's a poor 26-38 on the division road, and 140-284 (minus 42 games on the moneyline) as an underdog of +150 (or higher), while Milwaukee is a dominant 255-134 (+25 games on the moneyline) as a home favorite of -150 (or more). Take the Brewers this afternoon. |
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04-13-21 | Reds v. Giants -102 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 16 h 19 m | Show |
At 9:45 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Cincinnati Reds. Buck Showalter may be a well-liked personality around baseball, but it seems that the verdict is in when it comes to his handling (and that of his coaches) of pitchers when he was managing the Orioles. RHs Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman were two of the hottest prospects coming up for the O's at about the same time and they could never get on track in their time in Charm City. But now that they've both left, Bundy and Gausman are blossoming on the West Coast -- looking like the pitchers the O's thought they could be. Gausman is now in San Francisco and he broke out big last season in 12 games (10 starts), and so far he looks even better at age 30 this season. In his two starts, Gausman sports a 1.32 ERA and 0.73 WHIP with 11 K's and 3 BBs in just under 14 innings. Start #3 comes tonight against the surprising Reds and their ace, RH Luis Castillo. Unfortunately for Cincy, it is 0-5 in Castillo's last five starts as an underdog/PK). Meanwhile, Gausman's teams are 31-18 (+9 games on the moneyline) at home in his starts, when priced as a favorite of -150 or less. Take the Giants. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-13-21 | Panthers -108 v. Stars | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Florida Panthers over the Dallas Stars. The NHL trade deadline has passed and while the Panthers were fairly active -- picking up four players in an effort to fortify their line-up for the playoffs -- the Stars basically did nothing. Dallas' management probably figures it's been a lost season at this point with a plethora of injuries, so it doesn't make much sense to mortgage the future in an attempt to right the ship in the final month. Admittedly, the Stars' injury situation is a little bit better than it was a month ago, but they still have no fewer than a half-dozen regulars out of action. The Panthers have been solid on the road this season (12-8-1) and, at 56 total points, they currently sit just two points behind division co-leaders Carolina and Tampa. That makes games like tonight's revenge match-up even more important. Despite Dallas' win on Saturday, 4-1, Florida is still 5-2 in the last seven meetings. The Panthers are also 6-1 in their last seven after scoring less than two goals in their previous game, and 29-15 after giving up more than three goals. Finally, from a scheduling standpoint, the Panthers have an advantage, in that they've been off since Saturday, while Dallas will be playing its 3rd game in four nights (after losing to Nashville on Sunday). The Stars are a wallet-busting 14-32 when playing their 3rd game in four nights. Take Florida. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-13-21 | Indians -100 v. White Sox | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Chicago White Sox. We're less than two weeks into the season, but you'd be hard-pressed to get a pitching match-up in the AL as good as this one the rest of the year. When it comes to American League hurlers, it doesn't get much better than RHPs Shane Bieber of the Tribe and Lucas Giolito of the White Sox. Bieber won the AL Cy Young in the 2020 shortened season, while Giolito finished seventh. Neither one of these aces was at his best in his season debut, which is not surprising. What is surprising is that a Cleveland offense, which figured to be in rebuilding mode in its first season without superstar SS Francisco Lindor, has actually been fairly productive so far. Dating back to last season, the Indians have won six of the last seven meetings vs. Chicago, and two of those victories came in Bieber vs. Giolito match-ups, like tonight. The White Sox are 9-13 in Giolito's last 22 home starts, as well as 2-7 in his last nine starts as a home underdog (or PK). Meanwhile, Cleveland is 24-11 in Bieber's road starts. Take the Indians. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-13-21 | Hawks v. Raptors -1 | Top | 108-103 | Loss | -105 | 1 h 7 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors. It has just been announced that Trae Young will not play for Atlanta, so that's enough for us to pull the trigger on the Raptors. Take Toronto tonight. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie |
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04-12-21 | Rockets +13 v. Suns | Top | 120-126 | Win | 100 | 17 h 29 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets + the points over the Phoenix Suns. We played on Houston last Monday vs. these Suns, and got the cash when the Rockets lost by just three points, 133-130, as a 14-point home underdog. And we also played on the Suns in their last game, which was an easy win for us vs. the Wizards (134-106). Tonight, we'll once again take Houston as a double-digit underdog, as it comes into this game off back to back blowout losses, at the Clippers, and at the Warriors. But Houston is a solid 91-59 ATS on the road as an underdog off back to back ATS losses, including 39-17 ATS when playing with revenge. And Phoenix is a horrid 9-29 ATS as a favorite of 9+ points, if it was off a win, in which it covered by 9+ points. And the Suns are also 0-7 ATS their last seven vs. Houston, if the Suns were off a double-digit win. Take the Rockets + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-12-21 | Tigers v. Astros -225 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -225 | 16 h 34 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over Detroit. Zack Greinke will get the ball tonight, as he looks to stop the bleeding for Houston, after it dropped its last two games on Friday + Saturday to the Oakland A's. The good news for Houston is that Greinke is as good as any pitcher in baseball when installed as a favorite, as his teams have gone 196-112 in his career, including 36-8 (+19 games on the moneyline) when priced as a favorite of -200 (or more). Meanwhile, Detroit is 42-133 (minus 34 games on the moneyline) as an underdog of +200 (or more). Finally, Houston is 31-6 its last 37 when playing with a day off. Take the Astros. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-12-21 | Angels -112 v. Royals | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 33 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Angels over the Kansas City Royals. For years, the Angels had Mike Trout's bat in the line-up and not a whole lot more. Sure, future Hall of Famer Albert Pujols put in some very good seasons alongside Trout, but the offense was missing that spark plug to go with the best player in the game. But those days may be over and Trout may finally have some major help in the top half of the order in the form of Japanese star Shohei Ohtani. In his fourth season in the Majors and with his injuries apparently behind him, the 26-year-old Ohtani is having a Trout-like campaign so far in 2021, showing both power at the plate and speed on the basepaths. Tonight, it will be veteran RH Alex Cobb getting his second start for L.A. as the Halos try to come back from a big 15-1 loss on Saturday. The Angels are 4-2 in the last six meetings and will face the Royals' Brady Singer, who was hit hard by the Rangers in his 2021 debut (3 1/3 IP, 6 R, 5H, 3 BB). KC is a poor 13-25 when priced from -125 to +125. and 67-106 (minus 13 games on the moneyline) vs. RHP. Take L.A. |
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04-12-21 | Nationals v. Cardinals -133 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -133 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
At 7:45 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Washington Nationals. The fluid state of the Cards' rotation gives opportunity to talented pitchers who want a chance to show their stuff as a starter. Enter 28-year-old RH John Gant. Gant was a star out of the bullpen in 2019, going 11-1 with a 3.66 ERA despite not starting a single game (he also threw in three saves). Then in a short 2020 campaign, Gant showed that the previous year was no fluke as he posted a 2.40 ERA in 17 games, although his W-L record took a hit. Those numbers, combined with elbow injuries to Mikolas and Hudson, have enabled Gant to get a shot at starting. And in his first effort he didn't disappoint, throwing four scoreless innings in a Cards win over Miami last Tuesday. Normally a second start against a team like the Nats for someone like Gant might be concerning, but Washington seems to be in total disarray right now with a 1-5 record after a late start to its season due to COVID. The Nats are also 17-40 in their last 57 trips to St. Louis. Take the Cards. |
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04-11-21 | Bucks -8.5 v. Magic | Top | 124-87 | Win | 100 | 18 h 42 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over the Orlando Magic. Milwaukee's banged-up right now, as many key players (Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday, Donte DiVincenzo, Brook Lopez, Khris Middleton) missed its last game -- a 127-119 loss to Charlotte. The good news tonight is that Milwaukee should still have its way with the Magic, regardless of which Bucks players suit up for this game. Orlando's lost four straight, and 17 of 21. And it's an awful 16-33 ATS its last 49 vs. .595 (or better) foes. Milwaukee, meanwhile, is 34-17 ATS vs. sub-.650 foes, if Milwaukee lost its previous game. Finally, over the last 31 years, road favorites with a win percentage greater than .600, have covered 65% off 3 SU/ATS losses, if matched up against a non-division foe. Lay the points with Milwaukee. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-11-21 | Rangers v. Islanders -118 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 43 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Islanders over the New York Rangers. These two teams met on Friday, and the Rangers blew out the Isles, 4-1, in Uniondale. But I love the Isles to avenge that home loss, back at home this afternoon. The Islanders are 13-3 this season vs. losing teams, and also a perfect 6-0 at home after giving up 4+ goals in their previous game. The Rangers, meanwhile, are an awful 10-23 (minus 11 games on the moneyline) off a win by more than 2 goals, and 13-28 off a road win. Take the Isles to bounce back on Sunday. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-11-21 | Reds -110 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Reds over the Arizona Diamondbacks. Roughly 10 games into the MLB season, there have been some surprising performances. But none have been more surprising than that of the Cincinnati Reds. After an off-season that saw their best player -- pitcher Trevor Bauer -- sign a free agent contract with the Dodgers, most people figured that 2021 would be a rebuilding year at best. And it still could be. But right now the Reds are sitting alone in first place in the NL Central with a 6-2 record. Tonight will be the rubber game in this three-game set with the D-Backs. And RH Jose DeLeon will get his second start for the Reds after a solid outing first time out in a Reds win over the Pirates last Monday. RH Luke Weaver also gets his second Arizona start of 2021. Once a promising prospect with the Cards, Weaver saw things completely unravel last season with the D-Backs as he went 1-9 with a 6.58 ERA in 12 starts. Despite the loss last night, Cincy is 4-2 in the last six meetings here in Arizona. Take the Reds. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-11-21 | Hawks -2 v. Hornets | Top | 105-101 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks minus the points over Charlotte. These two teams are surprisingly having strong seasons, as they sit in the 4th (Charlotte) and 5th (Atlanta) spots in the Eastern conference. So, this game is critical for playoff positioning. We'll take the Hawks, as they fall into a 145-66 ATS revenge system of mine, after losing, 113-105, to the Hornets in the last meeting. Additionally, the Hawks are 11-3 ATS when playing with revenge from a road loss. And, since 1990, they've cashed 67% as road favorites vs. winning teams, if Atlanta was playing with revenge from an upset loss. Lay the points with Atlanta. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-10-21 | Wizards v. Suns -11.5 | Top | 106-134 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over the Washington Wizards. Yesterday, the Wizards upset Golden State, 110-107, as a 4.5-point road underdog. But off that upset win, we'll fade Washington in the Valley of the Sun tonight, as Phoenix is playing with revenge from a 128-107 upset loss to Washington earlier this season. The Suns are 33-18 ATS this season -- an NBA best -- and they're doing their best work at home, where they've covered the spread by 3.37 points per game. The Suns are 15-5 ATS their last 20 at home, and they also fall into a 58-22 ATS system of mine which plays on certain .673 (or better) teams playing with revenge from losses by more than 20 points. Finally, since 1997, Phoenix has covered 63% at home off a loss vs. foes off upset road wins. Take Phoenix to blow out Washington. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-10-21 | Wild -108 v. Blues | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -108 | 19 h 9 m | Show |
At 5:05 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Wild over the St Louis Blues. Last night, the Wild suffered one of their worst defeats in the history of the franchise when they lost, 9-1, to St. Louis. But off that huge embarrassing loss, we'll take Minnesota to bounce back on Saturday afternoon. Indeed, the Wild generally do just that, as they're 32-22 after allowing 6+ goals in their previous game, and 20-8 their last 28 (+13 games on the moneyline) off a loss by more than 4 goals. And they're 10-2 when playing with revenge from a loss by more than 3 goals. Take the Wild over St. Louis. Good luck, as always.....Al McMordie. |
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04-10-21 | Phillies +128 v. Braves | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 15 m | Show |
At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Atlanta Braves. After four MLB seasons where his performance as a starting pitcher ranged from poor to average, there were signs that RH Zach Eflin had turned a corner in the shortened 2020 campaign. In 11 games last season (10 starts), the 27-year-old posted career bests in ERA (3.97), WHIP (1.27), K rate (10.7) and K:BB ratio (4.67). In his only start so far in 2021, Eflin continued to shine, throwing seven sparkling innings, allowing one run on four hits with eight Ks and one walk. Eflin tries to keep it going tonight in his 11th career start against the Braves. And despite his lean early years in the league, Eflin is 5-3 with a nice 3.22 ERA vs. a very good Atlanta team in those 10 starts covering 58 2/3 innings. And in four previous starts here at Sun Trust Park, Eflin is 3-1. Despite their loss here last night, the Phillies are still 6-2 in the last eight meetings with the Braves. More importantly, the Phillies are 8-1 in Eflin's last nine starts going back to August 18, 2020. Take the Phils. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-10-21 | A's v. Astros -150 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -150 | 15 h 1 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Oakland Athletics. Nobody knew how the Astros would perform this season, being that they will face hostile fans at virtually every road venue since they were caught in a cheating scandal. But so far, this Houston team seems to have used the adversity to its advantage, getting off to a 6-2 start. And while the road fans may not be very friendly to them, the 'Stros will be greeted with nothing but love here at Minute Maid Park this season. RH Jose Urquidy didn't start pitching for the 'Stros until 2019 so he has been somewhat immune to the controversy and that's probably fine with him. More importantly, the 24-year-old is a very talented player with a bright future. After a very solid rookie season, Urquidy landed a full-time rotation spot in the shortened 2020 season and responded with a 2.73 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in five starts covering just under 30 innings. The A's may have taken game one of this series last night, but they are still 1-6 in the last seven meetings with Houston. Take the Astros. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-09-21 | Nationals v. Dodgers -275 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Washington Nationals. When L.A. signed free agent Trevor Bauer this year it added one of the top arms in the game to an already dangerous roster. Almost as important however is that the addition of the NL Cy Young winner also takes some of the pressure off the younger studs on the Dodgers' deep pitching staff -- most notably Julio Urias and today's starter, RHP Walker Buehler. Buehler had a solid first start, throwing six quality innings in a Dodger win over Colorado. That start was in hitter-friendly Denver, so there's no doubt Buehler is looking forward to his 2021 home debut this afternoon in the Dodgers' home opener. It comes against a team that has had many challenges even though the season is only eight days old. The Nats' opening series with the Mets was postponed due to COVID. And they dropped two of three to the Braves this week as the rust was evident. The Dodgers are 18-4 (+7 games on the moneyline) in Buehler's last 22 starts when favored -200 (or higher), and 119-52 (+32 games on the moneyline) their last 171 vs. righties. Meanwhile, Joe Ross has not delivered in the underdog role (9-18, minus 7 games on the moneyline). Take L.A. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-09-21 | Yankees -135 v. Rays | Top | 5-10 | Loss | -135 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
At 3:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Tampa Bay Rays. If the Rays could pick a starter to face on their season home opener, they likely would not choose RH Corey Kluber. Sure, the veteran -- who is beginning his first season with the Yankees after playing for the Rangers in 2020 -- is not the pitcher he was back in his Cy Young days. But the 34-year-old is still dangerous and capable of giving his team six+ quality innings every five days. More importantly, Kluber is 5-2 with a 2.67 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in 10 career starts vs. Tampa covering 64 innings. Kluber got his Yankee career off to a solid start, throwing four innings while allowing one ER on five hits with five K's against the Jays last Saturday. Once a crafty southpaw who could get guys out with his off-speed pitches, 41-year-old Rich Hill is now on the downside of his career and could have a tough time in his first season in Tampa. New York is 11-4 (+6 games on the moneyline) in its last 15 coming off a one-run loss to a division rival. Take the Yanks. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-08-21 | Lightning -204 v. Blue Jackets | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 28 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the Columbus Blue Jackets. If you're a Lightning fan, you may be a bit concerned over the team's recent struggles, but it's certainly no reason to panic. After all, this is a club that usually saves its major problems for the playoffs -- last season notwithstanding. The fact that Tampa has lost five of its last seven games may not look that good on the surface, but there are plenty of reasons to think it will be the conference favorite heading into the post-season, which begins in a little more than a month. First, there is the fact that this is a very healthy team going into the final month of the season. And, second, despite their stumbles of late, the Bolts still feature the top net-minder in the game in veteran Russian Andrei Vasilevskiy, who is sporting the best numbers of his career (2.00 GAA; .931 Sv Pct). This is a revenge situation for the Bolts and they are 8-2 in their last 10 revenging a loss as a favorite; 26-9 off a road loss; and 31-8 (+18 games on the moneyline) in their last 39 after a loss by two or more goals. Meanwhile, the Blue Jackets are a wallet-busting 13-21 (minus 12 games on the moneyline) off a home win, in which they scored more than three goals. Take Tampa. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-07-21 | Grizzlies v. Hawks -2 | Top | 131-113 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks minus the points over Memphis. The Grizzlies and Hawks both played last night. Memphis went into Miami, and upset the Heat, 124-112, for its 3rd straight win (and 5th straight cover). Meanwhile, Atlanta defeated New Orleans here, at home, 123-107, for its fourth straight win and cover. We'll go against Memphis tonight, as this will be its 3rd road game in four nights. And NBA teams that were playing their 3rd road game in 4 nights, have covered just 37% over the past 31 seasons if they were off two wins, and matched up against an opponent with a better W/L record, which was off back to back SU/ATS wins. The Hawks are a super 105-56-4 ATS at home in the regular season vs. foes off 3+ wins, including 31-8-2 ATS its last 41 if its opponent was unrested. Take Atlanta. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-07-21 | Mets v. Phillies -150 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the New York Mets. The Phillies got their season off to a 4-0 start, sweeping the Braves in three games and then taking the first of this series on Monday, despite the presence of Jacob deGrom on the mound for New York. The Phils finally lost on Tuesday, but they come back this afternoon with their ace, RHP Aaron Nola. The 27-year-old was in mid-season form in his first start last Thursday against Atlanta, throwing 6 2/3 quality innings, allowing two runs on six hits with six Ks and no walks. And if there's one thing Nola likes, it's starting games against the Mets. In 16 starts vs. New York, Nola is 8-2 with a 3.30 ERA, including 114 strikeouts and only 75 hits in just over 95 innings. Throughout his MLB career, Nola has loved pitching in his home park. In 72 starts here at Citizens Bank, Nola is 33-17 with a 2.98 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 455 2/3 innings (vs. 25-23 with a 4.02 ERA in 68 starts elsewhere). The Mets are also a woeful 6-20 in their last 26 games as a road underdog of at least +125. Take Philly. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-07-21 | Blue Jays -183 v. Rangers | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -183 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
At 2:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Texas Rangers. Two seasons ago, Hyun Jin Ryu had a ridiculous season with the L.A. Dodgers, almost winning the NL Cy Young award while leading his team to yet another NL West Division title. Ryu signed with the Jays as a free agent in December of that year and proceeded to have another outstanding, albeit shortened, campaign in 2020 with Toronto. Now with an even better team around him, and a full season with which to work, Ryu may be poised to do with the Jays what he did with the Dodgers. His first start of 2021 was solid (5 1/3 IP; 2 ER; 5 Ks; 0 BBs) and he looks to follow that up this afternoon with another good outing. Ryu's career record in day games is even more dominant than his overall numbers. In 39 daytime starts covering 227 innings, the veteran LHP is 21-9 with a 2.66 ERA with 222 strikeouts and only 40 walks. And Ryu's teams are 10-2 (+8 games on the moneyline) in his last 12 daytime starts. Take the Blue Jays. |
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04-07-21 | Twins -165 v. Tigers | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Detroit Tigers. The Twins are my pick this season (at 22-1 odds) to win the World Series, so we will no doubt be on the Twins often this season. Today, we'll back Minnesota's veteran righty, Kenta Maeda. In his first start of the season, Maeda was effective, as he gave up just 1 run in 4 1-3 innings vs. the Brewers. Here, Maeda will be matched-up against the Detroit Tigers' Matt Boyd. This is a favorable spot for Minnesota, as Detroit is a horrible 25-64 (minus 27 games on the moneyline) as a home underdog, while Maeda's teams are 36-19 (+ 8 games on the moneyline) when priced from -125 to -175. Take the Twins. |
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04-06-21 | 76ers v. Celtics +1 | Top | 106-96 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics + the points over Philadelphia. These two teams met earlier this season in Philadelphia for a back-to-back set. And the 76ers won each of those two games, by 8 and 12 points, respectively. But this game is in Boston, and we'll take the homestanding Celtics to avenge those defeats. Boston comes into this game off back-to-back blowout wins over Houston (118-102) and Charlotte (116-86), and has gone 5-2 ATS its last seven. That bodes well for Brad Stevens men tonight, as they're 56-23 ATS off a home blowout win by more than 20 points. And they're 32-12 ATS at home when not favored by 3+ points, including a perfect 9-0 ATS off back to back SU/ATS wins. Philadelphia, meanwhile, has dropped four of its last five to the point spread. And the 76ers are a poor 8-22-1 ATS as road favorites vs. .500 (or better) foes off a win, including 0-7-1 ATS if their foe was playing with revenge. Take the Celtics. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-06-21 | Rays -145 v. Red Sox | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -145 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Boston Red Sox. People in Pittsburgh lament the fact that the Pirates let Gerrit Cole go to the Yankees via free agency. But a much bigger gaffe by the Bucs was a year earlier when they traded Austin Meadows, Tyler Glasnow, and uber-prospect Shane Baz to Tampa for Chris Archer. We still have no idea what the Pirates thought they were going to do with Archer but sure as heck know what the Rays have been able to do with Glasnow and Meadows. Tonight, the 6'8", 27-year-old RHP gets his second start after a stellar 2021 debut last Thursday in which he threw six innings of one-hit, shutout ball in a 1-0 Tampa win over the Marlins. The Sox bounced back last night in game one of this series (after being swept by the Orioles) but this team has more question marks at this point than it does answers. And last year the Rays gave the Sox all kinds of trouble, taking seven of the 10 meetings. The Rays are 12-3 (+9 games on the moneyline) in Glasnow's last 15 road starts. Take Tampa. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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04-06-21 | Bruins -120 v. Flyers | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Bruins over the Philadelphia Flyers. Boston won the first five meetings between these two teams this season, but faltered last night, when it lost, 3-2, in overtime. But off that loss, we'll take the Bruins to resume their winning ways vs. Philadelphia. Carter Hart will be in goal tonight for the Flyers, and he's 0-2-2 with a 5.32 GAA and an awful .843 Saves Pct. vs. Boston this season. The Bruins are a solid 10-5 this season off a loss, and 39-28 when playing with same-season revenge. Meanwhile, the Flyers are a wallet-busting 209-240 (but minus 76 games on the moneyline) off a road win. Take the Bruins. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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