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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-25-20 | Pelicans +7.5 v. Lakers | Top | 109-118 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans + the points over Los Angeles. New Orleans has won 8 of 11, with its only three defeats to the Rockets, Bucks and Thunder -- all Playoff teams. And the Pelicans will look for their 3rd straight win tonight -- all on the road -- against a Lakers team also playing well, with five straight wins. We'll grab the points, as New Orleans is 14-3 ATS off back to back road ATS wins. And it also falls into a 207-130 ATS system which plays on certain revenge-minded teams off back to back SU/ATS wins. Take New Orleans. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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02-25-20 | Alabama v. Mississippi State -4 | Top | 73-80 | Win | 100 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs minus the points over Alabama. This is a huge revenge game for Mississippi State, which lost by 21 to the Crimson Tide last month. I love the Bulldogs tonight, as they also come into this game off an 87-75 upset loss to the Texas A&M Aggies. And SEC Conference teams are a solid 44-24 ATS when playing with revenge from a 20-point (or worse) loss in the season's first meeting, if they also lost their previous game, straight-up, and their opponent was off a straight-up win. Moreover, Miss State is 47-27 ATS off a double-digit road loss, while Alabama is a dreadful 18-39 ATS as a road underdog of 7 or less points vs. foes off a point spread defeat. Take the Bulldogs minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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02-25-20 | Blue Jackets v. Wild -158 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 44 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Wild over Columbus. The Wild have played well in their first four games for new coach Dean Evason, notwithstanding their 2-2 record. Indeed, they've out-shot their four opponents, 139-107, and out-hit their foes 83-73. If Minnesota continues its energetic play, the wins will certainly follow. Columbus, on the other hand, surely feels snakebit right now. The Blue Jackets snapped their 8-game losing streak last night with an overtime win against Ottawa. Unfortunately, the Jackets suffered injuries to both forward Riley Nash and goalie Elvis Merzlikins. And they now have 11 regulars in street clothes. We'll take the homestanding Wild, as they're 39-20 (+19 games on the money line) after allowing more than two goals in back-to-back games. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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02-25-20 | Bucks v. Raptors +1.5 | Top | 108-97 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors + the points over Milwaukee. The Raptors have been installed as a home underdog tonight, notwithstanding the fact that they've won 17 of their last 18 games (12-6 ATS), including a most-impressive 127-81 win over Indiana on Sunday. Even better: the Raptors are 34-22 ATS vs. the league's better teams (with win percentages greater than .625), while the Bucks have fared poorly as a favorite of 4 points or less (9-20 ATS). And, finally, the Raptors are an incredible 13-0 ATS their last 13 at home after not giving up more than 90 points in their previous game. Take Toronto. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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02-25-20 | Miami-OH v. Kent State -9 | Top | 61-74 | Win | 100 | 5 h 43 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Kent State Golden Flashes minus the points over Miami-Ohio. The RedHawks upset Kent in Oxford last month, 77-74. But we'll take the Golden Flashes in the re-match, as they're 31-1 straight-up, and 26-4-2 ATS when Pk'em or favored against a .585 (or worse) opponent, and playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season. It's true that Miami is on a 3-game ATS win streak. Unfortunately, it's a wallet-busting 10-24 ATS off three ATS wins, including 0-8 ATS if its opponent was off a home loss. Take Kent State minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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02-25-20 | Iowa v. Michigan State -8 | Top | 70-78 | Push | 0 | 5 h 41 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Michigan State Spartans minus the points over Iowa. These two teams are tied (along with three other teams) for 2nd place in the Big 10 Conference, with 10-6 records (Maryland leads with a 12-4 mark). Both teams come into this game off a win. The Spartans blew out Nebraska by 21 points last Thursday, while Iowa defeated Ohio State by nine on the same night. We'll lay the points with the Spartans tonight, as they've dominated the Hawkeyes here, in East Lansing, with a 20-1 record since 1994 (15-6 ATS). Even better: at home, Michigan State has compiled an incredible 64-23-4 ATS record when not favored by double-digits, if the Spartans were well-rested, and had at least the three previous days off. Lay the points with Michigan State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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02-25-20 | TCU v. Iowa State -2.5 | Top | 59-65 | Win | 100 | 5 h 40 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Iowa State Cyclones minus the points over TCU. The Cyclones come into this game off back to back blowout losses to Kansas (91-71) and Texas Tech (87-57), while TCU is off an upset win over West Virginia. I love Iowa State to rebound from those defeats, as it plays this game with revenge from a two-point loss in Fort Worth last month. And college basketball favorites have cashed 67% since 1990 off back-to-back 20-point losses, if they played with revenge from a loss earlier in the season, and their opponent was off an upset win. Take Iowa State. |
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02-25-20 | Kentucky v. Texas A&M +6.5 | Top | 69-60 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 39 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Texas A&M Aggies + the points over Kentucky. The Aggies are playing great basketball, as they come into this home game off three straight upset wins. We'll grab the points with Texas A&M, as it's 39-22 ATS its last 61 as a home underdog. And Kentucky is a poor 2-13 ATS off 3 straight wins. Take Texas A&M + the points. |
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02-25-20 | Duke v. Wake Forest +11.5 | Top | 101-113 | Win | 100 | 5 h 39 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons + the points over Duke. The Blue Devils thrashed Wake Forest, 90-59, in the season's first meeting. We'll take the home underdog tonight, as .390 (or better) revenge-minded, double-digit home dogs have cashed 63% since 1991 if they lost the season's first meeting by 25+ points. Take Wake Forest. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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02-24-20 | Suns v. Jazz -7.5 | Top | 131-111 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 27 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Phoenix. The Jazz come into this game off a double-digit, upset loss to Houston, on Saturday. But off that defeat, we'll look for Quin Snyder's men to rebound here, at home, on Monday. Indeed, Utah's 35-12 ATS if it was favored off a double-digit home loss, and its foe was not off a double-digit loss. Even better: the Jazz have won eight straight in this series (6-2 ATS), and 15 of 16 (10-5-1 ATS) over the last five seasons. Lay the points with Utah. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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02-24-20 | West Virginia -5 v. Texas | Top | 57-67 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 22 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers minus the points over Texas. These two teams met earlier this year in Morgantown, and Bob Huggins' men blew out the Longhorns by 38 points. But I doubt that overconfidence will be an issue this evening. After all, West Virginia just lost to TCU, 67-60, in Fort Worth, on Saturday. And it had also blown out TCU earlier this season, in Morgantown, 81-49. Overall, the Mountaineers have now dropped four of their previous five games. Of course, two of those four losses were to Top 3-ranked Kansas and Baylor, so there's no shame in losing to each of those teams. West Virginia is a fantastic 39-18 ATS in competitive games with point spreads less than 10 points, if WVU is off a point spread defeat. And Texas is a poor 4-12 ATS off back to back wins, including 1-7 ATS at home. Take WVU minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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02-23-20 | Celtics v. Lakers -6.5 | Top | 112-114 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
At 3:35 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over Boston. The Celtics embarrassed the Lakers, 139-107, at Boston, on January 20. But we'll lay the points with the revenge-minded Lakers this afternoon, as NBA favorites of 4+ points, with a win percentage greater than .706, have covered 72% in the Regular season since 1990, when playing with revenge from a loss by more than 24 points. Take the Lakers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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02-23-20 | Blackhawks v. Stars -188 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Stars over Chicago. The Blackhawks upset Nashville, 2-1, on Friday, while Dallas was upset here at home, 5-1, by the Blues. That loss snapped a 6-game streak by Dallas in which it earned at least a point in each game (5-0-1). But I love Dallas to bounce back this afternoon, as it's 66-32 off a home loss by more than 2 goals, and 14-2 its last 16 home games after allowing more than 4 goals in its previous game. Meanwhile, the Blackhawks are a miserable 9-20 (minus 11 games on the money line) off a division win. Take Dallas. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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02-22-20 | Rockets v. Jazz -2 | Top | 120-110 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Houston. The Rockets had last night off following their 135-105 blowout of Golden State to kick off their post-All-Star Break campaign. The Jazz, on the other hand, were stunned last night by the Spurs, here in Salt Lake City. San Antonio won outright as a 9-point road underdog, 113-104. We'll take the Jazz to bounce back tonight, as Utah is 27-10 ATS as a home favorite off an upset loss by 9+ points, while Houston is 1-12 ATS on the road off a 30-point win, if their opponent is off an ATS defeat. Take Utah minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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02-22-20 | The Citadel +15 v. Western Carolina | Top | 84-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on The Citadel + the points over Western Carolina. The Bulldogs played very well in defeat when these two teams met in Charleston, back on January 4. Western Carolina won that road game, 86-82, but didn't cover the 7-point spread. We'll take the Bulldogs in the rematch as a double-digit underdog, as the Catamounts are an awful 13-29-1 ATS as a home favorite of more than six points. Take The Citadel. |
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02-22-20 | California v. Washington -9 | Top | 52-87 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
At 6 pm, our selection is on the Washington Huskies minus the points over California. The Golden Bears snapped their 4-game losing streak with an upset win over Washington State on Wednesday, while Washington was upset by Stanford two nights ago. But off its upset road win, we'll fade California this evening, in Seattle, as the Bears are an awful 28% ATS over the last 30 years off an upset road win, if matched up against a conference foe off a SU loss. And Washington is 22-7 ATS at home off an upset loss, including 12-1 ATS when priced from -1.5 to -12 points. Take Washington. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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02-22-20 | Rhode Island v. Davidson -2.5 | Top | 75-77 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
At 5:30 pm, our selection is on the Davidson Wildcats minus the points over Rhode Island. Davidson lost to the league's doormat, St. Joseph's, on Tuesday, so it will be looking to redeem itself this evening. Also, the Rams defeated the Wildcats by 11 points in the season's first meeting, in Kingston. But all of this sets up today's play, as Davidson is a fantastic 23-12 ATS when playing with revenge, including 9-1 ATS off a loss. Take the Wildcats. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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02-22-20 | Wyoming v. Air Force -7.5 | Top | 78-72 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Air Force minus the points over Wyoming. The Falcons enter this afternoon's game on a horrid 9-game point spread losing streak, and are now 9-18 ATS. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are 13-12 ATS. The knee-jerk reaction might be to fade the ice cold Falcons. But consider that NCAA Teams on 9-game (or worse) ATS losing streaks have covered 59.1% over the last 30 years vs. foe with a winning ATS record. Take Air Force minus the points. |
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02-22-20 | Florida State v. NC State +2 | Top | 67-61 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
At 4 pm, our selection is on the North Carolina State Wolfpack + the points over Florida State. The Wolfpack have been installed as a home underdog this afternoon, and they're 14-6 ATS their last 20 as home dogs vs. foes off a win, including an upset victory over Duke in their most recent game. Additionally, revenge-minded ACC home underdogs have gone 179-131 ATS vs. conference foes off back to back conference wins. Take North Carolina State + the points. |
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02-22-20 | Hofstra v. Delaware +1.5 | Top | 78-62 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Delaware Blue Hens + the points over Hofstra. This is a great match-up between two teams that have already reached the 20-win mark. Delaware earned victory #20 with a 22-point win as a home underdog vs. Northeastern, on Thursday. And conference underdogs, off 20-point upset wins over conference foes, have cashed 165 of 291 since 1990. Take the Blue Hens. |
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02-22-20 | William & Mary v. James Madison +3 | Top | 78-74 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
At 4 pm, our selection is on the James Madison Dukes + the points over William & Mary. The Dukes will play their 3rd straight home game today, after dropping their first two on this home stand. We'll grab the points with James Madison, as William & Mary's an awful 0-19 ATS away from home vs. conference foes with a win percentage between .255 and .450 that are off back-to-back ATS losses. Take James Madison + the points. |
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02-22-20 | Tennessee State v. Morehead State +1 | Top | 63-66 | Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
At 3 pm, our selection is on the Morehead St. Eagles + the points over Tennessee St. The Tigers were blown out, 83-62, at Eastern Kentucky, on Thursday. And that extended the Tigers ATS Record away from home to 4-16 ATS their last 20. This afternoon's game is also on the road, in Morehead. And it will also be Morehead State's final home game of the season. And we'll take the Eagles + the points, as they fall into a 59-33 ATS "last home game" system of mine, as well as a 76-45 ATS revenge angle. Take Morehead St. |
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02-22-20 | Northern Kentucky v. Youngstown State +3 | Top | 61-59 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
At 2 pm, our selection is on the Youngstown State Penguins + the points over Northern Kentucky. The Penguins upset Wright State, 88-70, as a 5-point home underdog in their previous game. And that was Youngstown's eighth straight ATS win as a home underdog (and 15th of their last 18). Even better: the Penguins are now 20-7-1 ATS their last 28 as an underdog (regardless of the venue), including 6-1 ATS if they lost earlier in the season to their opponent. Take Youngstown St. + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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02-22-20 | Capitals -195 v. Devils | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -195 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Capitals over the New Jersey Devils. With their home loss as a strong favorite on Thursday night, the Capitals have now gone down to defeat in three straight games. Not only that, but Washington has also lost its lead in the Metropolitan Division for virtually the first time all season as the red-hot Penguins have caught the Caps with 80 points. But despite all of the bad news coming out of DC, with more than a quarter of the NHL season left to play, there is no reason to panic. For one thing, the Caps are 100% healthy right now and are there aren't many teams in the league that can say that. Second, DC has already made one trade to shore up its defense, acquiring Brenden Dillon from the Sharks for two future draft picks. And the Caps could very well make at least one more before the trade deadline. A Saturday matinee in New Jersey to play the last-place Devils should definitely put the Caps back on the winning track. The Devils have won four of their last seven, but those victories have come against the Sharks (26-34), Blue Jackets (30-32), Red Wings (15-47), and Kings (22-39). The Caps are 8-3 in their last 11 games as a road favorite, while the Devils are 8-19 in their last 27 vs. teams from their own division. Take Washington. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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02-22-20 | Eastern Michigan v. Ball State -6 | Top | 55-64 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Ball St. Cardinals minus the points over Eastern Michigan. The Eagles have won and covered their last three games, including a 21-point blowout of Kent St., as a 2.5-point underdog. Unfortunately for the Eagles, they've covered just 51 of 127 games off back to back wins, and are also 7-26 ATS their last 33 off back to back wins, when priced from +3.5 to +6.5 points. Take the Cardinals. |
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02-22-20 | Missouri v. Arkansas -6.5 | Top | 68-78 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Arkansas Razorbacks minus the points over Missouri. The Razorbacks lost two weeks ago to Missouri, in Columbia, 83-79. And they've lost five straight, overall, coming into this game. But Arkansas has always played MUCH BETTER at home than on the road. Indeed, the Razorbacks are an awful 115-173 ATS their last 288 on the road. But they're also a super 62-35-2 ATS at home off a road loss. Take Arkansas minus the points. |
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02-22-20 | Kansas +2 v. Baylor | Top | 64-61 | Win | 100 | 5 h 39 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Kansas Jayhawks + the points over Baylor. The Jayhawks will be out for revenge this afternoon, as they lost at home to Baylor by 12 points last month. We'll grab the points with Kansas, as it's covered 78% over the last 30 years when playing on the road with revenge from a home defeat. Meanwhile, Baylor's covered just 12 of 35 home games vs. revenge-minded foes that sought revenge from a home defeat earlier in the season. Take Kansas + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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02-22-20 | Tennessee v. Auburn -6 | Top | 66-73 | Win | 100 | 5 h 35 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Auburn Tigers minus the points over Tennessee. The 13th-ranked Tigers look to rebound off their two losses to Missouri and Georgia. But those were road games; today's game is at home. And the Tigers are a solid 75% ATS since 2002 in SEC Conference games off back to back SEC road losses. Take Auburn. |
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02-21-20 | Wild v. Oilers -109 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -109 | 18 h 53 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Edmonton Oilers over the Minnesota Wild. The Oilers come into tonight having won four of their last six games, with victories over the Hurricanes, Panthers, Blackhawks, and Predators. Perhaps more importantly, the two losses came to the Lightning and Bruins and there isn't a lot of shame losing to those two teams these days. Their loss to the Bruins was the most recent one, and it came in overtime here at Rogers Place where the Oilers are 17-12-2 this season. They will take a step down in class tonight with the Wild coming to town for the first time since December of 2018. Minnesota is just 11-15-2 in 28 games away from Minneapolis this season, and this series has been very friendly toward the home team, which is 5-2 in the last seven meetings (including a 6-5 win by Minnesota, back on Dec. 12). Edmonton's offense has come alive a bit recently as the Oilers have averaged 3.22 goals per game so far this month (nine games). That ranks them in the top 10 in the NHL for scoring in February (fifth best in the Western Conference). Finally, the Oilers are 11-5 (+9 games on the money line) in their last 16 games when revenging a same season loss against an opponent. Take Edmonton. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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02-21-20 | Green Bay v. Detroit +1 | Top | 84-67 | Loss | -115 | 1 h 32 m | Show |
At 7:00 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Titans minus the points over Wisconsin Green Bay. The Titans are on a 5-game losing streak (1-4 ATS), including back to back upset losses here, at home, to Cleveland State and Youngstown State. But off those two upsets, we'll step in and take Detroit as a small, 1-point favorite, as it's covered 63% over the last 18 years as a favorite in conference games off an upset loss. And it's covered 61.1% at home off back to back SU/ATS losses when playing with revenge. Take Detroit. |
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02-21-20 | Brown v. Columbia +1.5 | Top | 72-66 | Loss | -109 | 1 h 32 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Columbia Lions + the points over Brown. The Lions enter tonight's game on a 7-game losing streak (3-4 ATS), including a 72-66 defeat at Brown back on February 1. But the good news for Lions' fans is that they're 50-32 ATS vs. Ivy League foes if the Lions were off back to back losses, including 39-19 ATS when playing with revenge. Take Columbia. |
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02-21-20 | Buffalo v. Kent State -3 | Top | 104-98 | Loss | -105 | 1 h 31 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Kent State Golden Flashes minus the points over Buffalo. Kent State was blown out by 21 points, as a 2.5-point road favorite, by Eastern Michigan, on Tuesday, which was Kent's worst game (ATS) this season. The culprit was Kent's shooting percentage (29.1%), which was the lowest percentage (by far) it shot this season. But immediately before this game, Kent had its second-best shooting performance of the season (53.1%) in a 15-point blowout win vs. Ohio. So, it's best to just chalk up Tuesday's debacle to "variance." We'll look for Kent State to bounce back this evening, as it falls into 48-14 and 37-7 ATS angles of mine which play on certain teams off loss vs. foes off wins. Take Kent State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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02-20-20 | Flyers v. Blue Jackets -120 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -120 | 16 h 32 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Columbus Blue Jackets over the Philadelphia Flyers. This is the second half of a home-and-home series between two Eastern Conference teams that are very close in the standings. Right now, the Flyers are in the Playoff picture with 73 points (3rd place in the Metropolitan), while the Jackets are on the outside-looking-in, despite having totaled just one less point, at 72. The Flyers easily won the first game at home, 5-1, despite registering only 15 shots on goal in the game. The Jackets pulled starting goalie Elvis Merzlikins and replaced him with Matiss Kivlenieks, but neither one performed well. Look for Columbus to bounce back strong tonight at home, where they are 18-11-3 this season. The Flyers on the other hand have struggled all season on the road, with just 13 victories in 31 games. Finally, the Flyers are 5-11 (minus 7 games on the money line) in their last 16 games after a blowout victory by more than 3 goals. Take the Blue Jackets. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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02-20-20 | Belmont v. Morehead State +12 | Top | 80-67 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 24 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Morehead St. Eagles + the points over Belmont. The Bruins have won and covered each of their last five games, while the Eagles are off back to back SU/ATS losses. The knee-jerk reaction, then, might be to lay the points with red-hot Belmont, which already defeated Morehead St. by 18 points. But be careful. Indeed, since 1990, double-digit favorites have covered just 38%, if they were off back to back SU/ATS wins, and their opponent was a revenge-minded, losing team off back to back SU/ATS losses. And, along the same lines, Belmont has only covered 36% since 1990 vs. revenge-minded foes off back to back SU/ATS losses. Take Morehead St. + the points. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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02-19-20 | Tulsa v. Houston -10 | Top | 43-76 | Win | 100 | 16 h 7 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars minus the points over Tulsa. I expect the 22nd-ranked Cougars to be in an ornery mood tonight. They lost in overtime at SMU, 73-72, on Saturday (which was their 2nd straight point spread loss). And they also will play this game with revenge from a 63-61 loss at Tulsa -- a game in which Houston went the final 5:32 without a field goal! But the Cougars had won the previous five games (4-1 ATS) in this series prior to that loss. And Houston's an awesome 43-23-4 ATS as a favorite (or PK) when playing with revenge against a conference foe, including 25-9-4 ATS if the Cougars owned a better conference record. Finally, the Cougars are 8-1 ATS off back to back ATS defeats. Lay the points with Kelvin Sampson's men. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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02-19-20 | Coyotes v. Stars -148 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Stars over Arizona. The Stars have recorded at least a point in each of their five previous games (4-0-1), and I look for them to continue their solid play tonight, at home, where they're 17-11 on the season. The Coyotes did just win back-to-back home games over Washington (3-1) and the Islanders (2-1). But that doesn't bode well for the visiting team, as Arizona's an awful 23-56 after not giving up more than 2 goals in each of its two previous games. Even worse, the Coyotes' last win in Dallas was more than eight years ago. Dating back to 2012, they've dropped 12 straight road games here to the Stars! Take Dallas. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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02-18-20 | Oklahoma State v. West Virginia -10.5 | Top | 47-65 | Win | 100 | 15 h 0 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers minus the points over Oklahoma State. Tonight, the Mountaineers will welcome the Cowboys to Morgantown. And Okie State has not been a good traveler, as it's 52-75 ATS as a road underdog of +4 or more points. The Mountaineers are on a rare 3-game SU/ATS losing streak, while the Cowboys are off back to back upset wins. But WVU is a super 9-3 ATS its last 12, and 21-13 ATS its last 34, off 3 straight point spread defeats. And Oklahoma State is a poor 43-64 ATS off a home win vs. a conference foe. Take the Mountaineers minus the points. Good luck as always...Al McMordie. |
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02-17-20 | Lightning v. Avalanche +106 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 41 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Avalanche over the Tampa Bay Lightning. 10-game winning streaks are difficult in any professional sport, and the NHL is no exception. But right now, Tampa has done exactly that and, needless to say it is the hottest team in the league as a result. Certainly, we don't mind that, as the Lightning were our preseason choice (at 7-1 odds) to win this year's Stanley Cup, and they will probably end up with the league's #1 record by season's end. Tonight, the Bolts look for #11 in a row at a place where they were beaten soundly back in October, 6-2. The explosiveness of the Avalanche goal-scoring has been well-documented with what is likely the best #1 line in the game (MacKinnon, Landeskog, Rantanen). But as good as they are overall, this group is even better when playing here at the Pepsi Center. In 28 home games, the Avs are averaging 3.71 goals per game -- the best such number in the Western Conference (compared with 3.41 in 29 road contests). The Avs have been riding the back of their excellent veteran goalie Phillipp Grubauer for most of the season. But Grubauer went down with a lower body injury on Saturday and likely won't suit up tonight. However, the Avs have a more-than-capable back-up in 29-year-old Pavel Francouz. Colorado is 51-38 (+14 games on the money line) vs. the Eastern conference, and it's 46-33 (+14 games on the money line) after allowing more than 2 goals in back to back games. Take Colorado. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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02-16-20 | Blues -105 v. Predators | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Blues over the Nashville Predators. With a little more than 1/4 of the season to go, the Blues are set to defend their Stanley Cup Title. But although last year's Champs are leading their division once again, it is a very close race at this point with both the Stars and Avalanche breathing down the Blues' necks. You don't see many four-game losing streaks if you follow St. Louis' hockey club, but that's the current situation coming into tonight. It's only the second time this season that the Blues have lost four in a row, and they didn't lose a fifth straight back in October when in the same situation as tonight. The other factor that plays into this game is that it is an immediate revenge situation as the Blues lost to this Predators team in their last game (at home) just last night. The Blues are 23-12 in their last 35 when playing with double revenge, and are 8-2 their last 10 off 3+ losses. Take the Blues. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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02-15-20 | Predators v. Blues -131 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -131 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Blues over Nashville. The Blues are on a rare 3-game losing streak after dropping a 6-5 decision to the Golden Knights on Thursday. Tonight, they'll welcome Nashville to Enterprise Center, and will seek to avenge two losses to the Predators earlier this season. We'll play on the defending champs, as St. Louis has gone 8-1 its last nine off three straight losses. And it's also 23-11 when playing with double-revenge. Take the Blues this afternoon. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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02-14-20 | Devils v. Hurricanes -230 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 2 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Hurricanes over the New Jersey Devils. The Devils won their game on Thursday, 4-1, and held their opponents to just 26 shots in the process. But before we declare New Jersey's hockey team a contender once again, let's consider who they were playing. The Devils beat the Red Wings -- a team which has won a total of five road games all season -- at home, in New Jersey. And that's hardly something to brag about. Sure, if the Devils were in the Atlantic Division, there would be two other teams with worse records. But they're in the Metropolitan, and they're in the cellar there by a wide margin. Tonight they play a road game against a Division opponent which is fighting for a playoff spot. The Hurricanes return home after a very tough four-game road trip. But, when one considers the competition (St. Louis, Arizona, Vegas, and Dallas), the fact that they went 2-2 is impressive. So, not only will Carolina step down in class tonight, but it's also a revenge situation as the Devils won here in Raleigh when these two teams last met, back in November. Finally, the home team is 6-1 in the last seven meetings, while the 'Canes are 6-2 this season after not scoring 2 goals in their previous game. Take Carolina. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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02-13-20 | Islanders v. Predators -137 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Nashville Predators over the New York Islanders. The Predators followed up their Stanley Cup Finals run in 2016-2017 with two straight first-place finishes in their division (only to lose in the first and second rounds of the playoffs the last two seasons). But this year, the Preds are languishing a bit, currently sitting in 6th place in the Central. Tonight the Preds return home from a four-game road trip (that saw them go 2-2) for their first game at Bridgestone Arena since February 1. If there's anything that can get the Predators back on the winning track, it just might be a game here against the Islanders. Nashville has won each of the last four meetings with New York going back more than two years (February 5, 2018), including the last meeting here on October 13, 2018 when the Preds took an easy 5-2 victory. The Predators are coming into this game off of two days of rest and they are 4-0 in their last four games with at least that many days off in between. Also, the Preds have lost their last two games by identical 5-3 scores, and they are 12-3 (+8 games on the money line) in their last 15 games after allowing three or more goals in two straight (and 40-14 in their last 54 in those situations). Take Nashville. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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02-12-20 | Bucks v. Pacers +2 | Top | 111-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers + the points over Milwaukee. The Bucks have won five straight, and own the league's best record, at 46-7, while Indiana has lost its last six in a row. But there are several reasons why I love the Pacers to get back into the win column tonight. The most obvious, of course, is that Milwaukee will play tonight's game without Giannis Antetokounmpo, who will be at home with his family following the birth of his son, Liam, on Monday. There's no doubt the Bucks are still a dangerous team without Antetokounmpo, but the fact remains that Indiana has outscored Milwaukee in their two games this season when he wasn't on the court, but was outscored by 47 points when he was on the court. And that leads us to our second reason: the Pacers are 139-76 ATS when rested, and playing with revenge, if they were off a loss, and their opponent was off a win. Finally, Milwaukee has covered just 11 of 38 off 3+ wins, if their opponent was rested, and off back to back SU/ATS losses. Take Indiana + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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02-11-20 | Red Wings v. Sabres -230 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Sabres over the Detroit Red Wings. The only thing worse than a bad team is a bad team with a bunch of injuries. That pretty much describes the Detroit Red Wings right now. This once proud franchise is languishing at the bottom of the league and it likely wouldn't be in much of a different position if the team was healthy. But the Wings are anything but healthy currently with no fewer than nine skaters who have missed time due to various injuries. Although Detroit will likely get two of those players back for this game tonight, this team is still a long way from competing. The Sabres have some injury challenges right now as well, but they are a much better club than the Wings and they've done by far their best work at home this season where they have a winning record (albeit slightly at 15-10-4). The Sabres were without both of their top two goalies in their last game on Sunday -- a 3-2 loss to the Ducks -- but they should have Carter Hutton back between the pipes tonight as he returns from missing time for personal reasons. The Sabres are 5-2 in the last seven meetings with the Red Wings going back to November of 2018. Detroit has won just five road games (of 27 total) all season. Take Buffalo. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.Â
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02-10-20 | Heat -6 v. Warriors | Top | 113-101 | Win | 100 | 17 h 27 m | Show |
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat over the Golden State Warriors. The Heat lost for the 3rd straight time (both SU and ATS) last night when they fell, 115-109, at Portland. They'll play the 4th game on their 6-game road trip tonight, in Oakland. And they'll no doubt be happy to face a Warriors squad they blew out by 17 in Miami earlier this season. And the Warriors have been awful this season vs. winning teams, as they're 1-21 straight-up vs. foes with a winning record (and 2-8 ATS vs. winning foes when not getting more than 11 points). Meanwhile, Erik Spoelstra's men are 42-17-2 ATS when they were on a 3-game ATS losing streak, including 11-0 ATS in this situation since Nov. 3, 2017. Lay the points with Miami. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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02-09-20 | Clippers -7.5 v. Cavs | Top | 133-92 | Win | 100 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over Cleveland. Doc Rivers certainly wasn't happy with his team's effort last night. L.A. was favored by as many as 10 points, but lost outright by 27 points to a Timberwolves team which hadn't won in almost a month. Tonight, the Clippers will have a great opportunity to redeem themselves, as they'll face a Cavaliers team which they beat by 25 points less than four weeks ago. I expect another blowout, as .682 (or better) NBA clubs have bounced back to cover the spread 75% of the time in the regular season since 1990 off horrible losses, in which they failed to cover by 35+ points. Take Los Angeles. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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02-08-20 | Morehead State v. Eastern Illinois -7 | Top | 65-71 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
At 4:15 pm, our selection is on the Eastern Illinois Panthers minus the points over Morehead St. The Eagles won the first meeting in Morehead, 69-66, back on January 11. And they enter this afternoon's game on a 3-Game SU/ATS win streak after defeating SIU-Edwardsville, 58-49, on Thursday. We'll lay the points with Eastern Illinois, as it's covered 67% since 2001 as a favorite vs. foes off 3 SU/ATS wins. Even better: College Basketball home favorites of more than 6 points, on a 3-game losing streak, have covered 63% over the last 30 years, if playing with revenge from a road loss earlier in the season, and their foe was on a 3-game SU/ATS win streak. Take the Panthers. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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02-07-20 | Wild v. Stars -175 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -175 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Stars over the Minnesota Wild. It seems like only yesterday that Devan Dubnyk was the goalie that could do no wrong between the pipes for the Minnesota Wild. As recently as last season, the five-time All Star was still putting up stellar numbers, with a 2.54 GAA and .913 saves pct in a league-leading 67 games. But something has gone amiss this season with the now-33-year-old net-minder (a 9-15 record with a 3.40 GAA in 25 games) and a new star has emerged in goal. 32-year-old journeyman and St. Paul native Alex Stalock is the flavor of the month it seems and Stalock was stellar again last night as the Wild beat the Canucks, stopping 24 of 26 shots. But the fact that he played last night means that Minnesota must turn again to the shaky Dubnyk tonight in a very tough match-up in Dallas. The Stars have been very solid here at home and they'll look to continue their dominance over the Wild, having taken five of the last seven meetings. And this has been a very host-friendly series lately, with the home team taking each of the last four meetings (with Dallas being victorious in the last three played here at AA Center). Finally, the Wild have significantly underperformed on back-to-back nights, having gone 3-13 in their last 16 games playing without rest. Take the Stars. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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02-06-20 | Sharks v. Oilers -161 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -161 | 18 h 16 m | Show |
At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Edmonton Oilers over the San Jose Sharks. The Sharks beat the Flames in their last game, 3-1, but it was only their ninth road victory (in 26 tries) and their first in their last six road games. They stay on the road tonight traveling to Edmonton and although this particular venue has been good to the Sharks lately, Edmonton has really heated up in the New Year. The Oilers have won seven of 10 games overall since January 4 and have gone 4-1 in their last five here at home. Already without their #1 Center, Logan Couture (ankle) and #2 Tomas Hertl (knee surgery), the Sharks became even thinner at that position over the weekend when Joel Kellman went down with a lower body injury in the game against the Lightning. Although his injury is not considered to be long-term, Kellman will not be available tonight. That will not help an offense that has been anemic on the road this season, averaging just 2.27 GPG in 26 games away from San Jose (third-worst road output in the NHL). The Oilers were shut out by an improving Coyotes team in their last, 3-0, however they are 9-3 this season following a loss by three or more goals. Meanwhile the Sharks are 2-6 in their last eight games following a win and 1-5 in their last six vs. winning teams. Take Edmonton. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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02-05-20 | Nuggets v. Jazz -7 | Top | 98-95 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 54 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Denver. These Northwest division rivals met last week, and the Nuggets upset Utah, 106-100, as a 2.5-point home underdog. In that game, Utah was unrested, as it played at San Antonio the night before, while Denver was rested. The tables are turned for this game, as Utah has not played since Saturday, while Denver hosted Portland last night. We'll lay the lumber with Utah, as the Jazz are 104-71 ATS when rested, and matched-up against an unrested foe off a win. Take Utah. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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02-05-20 | Pacers +6 v. Raptors | Top | 118-119 | Win | 100 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers + the points over Toronto. The Raptors have won 11 straight games. But 9 of the 11 wins were against teams that won't be going to the Playoffs. Their only two impressive wins in this stretch were against the OKC Thunder and Philadelphia 76ers. Tonight, the Raptors will play the first of back-to-back games against the Pacers, with the re-match on Friday in Indianapolis. We'll grab the points with the Pacers, who come into this game off back to back home upset losses to New York and Dallas. And Indiana is a super 69% on the road since 1990 off back to back upset losses when playing a foe off a SU/ATS win. Take Indiana. |
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02-05-20 | Suns -2.5 v. Pistons | Top | 108-116 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over the Detroit Pistons. The Suns have dropped three straight games (both SU and ATS). But those three games were all against foes with a better W/L record. Tonight, the Suns will get a relative breather when they face the 18-34 Pistons. Phoenix is a super 59-37-3 ATS when favored on the road vs. a foe with a worse W/L record, including 21-6-2 ATS if the Suns are off a SU/ATS loss, while Detroit is 5-14 ATS as a home dog vs. a foe with a better W/L record. Phoenix also falls into 144-84 and 100-54 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off back to back losses. Take the Suns. |
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02-04-20 | Blackhawks v. Wild -125 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Wild over Chicago. The Wild were crushed, 6-1, at home by Boston. But we'll take the Wild to bounce back tonight. And, for technical support, consider that the Wild are 46-35 (+14 games on the money line) off a loss by more than 3 goals (including 4-1 this season), and 10-5 after allowing 6+ goals. Take Minnesota. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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02-04-20 | Hurricanes v. Blues -130 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Blues over the Carolina Hurricanes. The Defending Stanley Cup Champions have hit a bit of a mid-season skid. But as bad as their current slump is -- they've lost five out of their last six overall -- if you ask the Blues they would probably tell you that they'd rather go through this in late January/early February than in March. So, it's not a time to panic for a team which still has the best record in the Western Conference. And, if there's a match-up that could begin a turnaround for the home team tonight, it just might be a visit from the Hurricanes. St. Louis is 4-1 in the last five meetings with Carolina, and are 5-2 in the last seven meetings in the Gateway City. The Hurricanes squeaked out a home win in their last game, 4-3 in a shootout, but they are 0-4 in their last four games away from Raleigh. Finally, the Blues are 30-19 (+6 games on the money line) in their last 49 off back-to-back losses. Take the Blues. |
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02-04-20 | Avalanche -173 v. Sabres | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Avalanche over the Buffalo Sabres. What started as a very promising season for the Sabres in the first month, has gone downhill quickly after that. And it's gotten even worse, lately. The main reason for this continued slide is very easy to put into words: mounting injuries. The Sabres looked for sure like they had found their goalie for the foreseeable future in 26-year-old Swede Linus Ullmark, who was having a breakout campaign in his fifth NHL season. Then last Tuesday, Ullmark went down awkwardly in Buffalo's game against Ottawa having sustained a lower-body injury that will likely keep him out for three-to-four weeks. But their net-minder is just the tip of the ailment iceberg for the Sabres. Buffalo has at least seven other regulars who will miss tonight's game due to injury or illness and at least three of them are on defense. That's not a good thing against one of the most potent offenses in the league. Even worse: the Sabres are off a home win over Columbus, but are an awful 14-32 (-13 games on the money line) in their last 46 games after a home victory. Take the Avalanche. |
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02-03-20 | Baylor v. Kansas State +7.5 | Top | 73-67 | Win | 100 | 17 h 7 m | Show |
At 9 pm, on ESPN2-TV, our selection is on the Kansas State Wildcats + the points over the Baylor Bears. Baylor's 19-1, and ranked #1 in the country, while K-State is 9-12 on the season. But the Wildcats have covered their last three games, and now fall into an 86-48-8 ATS 'momentum' system of mine. What we want to do is play on any home underdog off 3 ATS wins, with a strong home court (that has won at least 32 of its previous 40 home games), if it was playing an opponent off a SU win. Take Kansas State + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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02-02-20 | Nuggets v. Pistons +3 | Top | 123-128 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
At 12:35 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Pistons + the points over Denver. The Nuggets earned an impressive, 127-115, win at Milwaukee on Friday to snap the Bucks' 9-game win streak. That was Denver's 2nd straight upset win (it also upset Utah on Thursday). But off those two big wins, we will fade the Nuggets in Detroit this afternoon. The Nuggets are a horrible 29-55 ATS on the road off a point spread win, including 5-23 ATS as a favorite. And NBA teams have covered just 35.5% since 1993 off a double-digit upset win over a .740 (or better) foe, if they were a double-digit underdog in that upset win. Take Detroit + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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02-01-20 | SE Missouri State +6 v. Eastern Kentucky | Top | 57-70 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
At 4 pm, our selection is on the SE Missouri State Redhawks + the points over Eastern Kentucky. The Colonels are on a 4-game win streak. But three of those four wins were on the road. Now, they're back home where they've NOT performed well over the years. Indeed, Eastern Kentucky is an awful 44-70-1 ATS here at home in Richmond, including 10-29 ATS as a favorite of more than 5 points off a win. Even worse: the Colonels come into this game off a 99-86 victory over Tennessee-Martin. But they're 2-14-1 ATS off a double-digit win, including 0-8-1 ATS vs. foes off a loss. Take the Redhawks + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-31-20 | Capitals -185 v. Senators | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Washington Capitals over the Ottawa Senators. The Senators notched a rare win on Tuesday, as they defeated Buffalo, 5-2. And that was just Ottawa's 6th win in 25 road games this season. Washington, meanwhile, dropped a home game to Nashville, 5-4. Interestingly, that was the eighth straight win by Nashville vs. Washington. Braden Holtby was once again shaky in goal for the Caps in that loss, and he accepted much of the blame after the game. The good news for Caps fans is that Holtby won't be between the pipes tonight as the Caps will turn to their much more consistent rookie, Ilya Samsonov. Samsonov has some stellar numbers -- a 15-2-1 record with a 2.06 GAA and .927 saves pct. -- and is clearly the goalie of the future. The question for the Caps is when will that future begin, as Samsonov and Holtby continue to share the load almost equally. Samsonov, though, was in goal in the last meeting with the Sens as the Caps took an easy 6-1 win at home, making it seven straight victories in a row for Washington over Ottawa. That bodes well for Washington tonight. As does the fact that Ottawa's an awful 0-11 following a win over a division foe by more than a goal. Take Washington. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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01-30-20 | Appalachian State +2 v. Arkansas State | Top | 71-64 | Win | 100 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Appalachian State Mountaineers + the points over Arkansas St. The Red Wolves are on a 5-game ATS win streak, including outright upset wins in each of their last three games. Unfortunately, teams (like Arkansas State) off five straight ATS wins and 3 straight upset wins have covered just 42 of 103 games since 1990. Even worse: the Red Wolves are 0-5 ATS as a favorite vs. Appalachian St, while the Mountaineers are a solid 37-24 ATS vs. foes off back-to-back SU/ATS wins. Finally, Appalachian State falls into several of my favorite NCAA systems, with records of 165-82, 125-65 and 144-67 ATS since 1990. Grab the points with the Mountaineers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-29-20 | West Virginia v. Texas Tech -2 | Top | 81-89 | Win | 100 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Texas Tech Red Raiders minus the points over West Virginia. The Red Raiders play tonight's game with revenge from a 66-54 loss in Morgantown on January 11. And West Virginia has gone 3-1 SU/ATS since that game, including back-to-back SU/ATS home wins over Texas and Missouri last week. Unfortunately for the Mountaineers, tonight's game is away from home. And the Mountaineers have covered just 14 of 46 games away from home, if they were off back-to-back ATS wins. Lay the points with Texas Tech. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-29-20 | Chattanooga v. Samford +3 | Top | 92-84 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Samford Bulldogs + the points over Chattanooga. This is a big revenge game for Samford, which was handed its worst loss of the season by the Moccasins, 105-67, earlier this month. We'll grab the points with the home underdog, as Chattanooga's a disastrous 6-27-1 ATS when favored (or PK) over a revenge-minded opponent which it defeated by more than 10 points in the previous meeting. Take Samford + the points. |
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01-29-20 | Vanderbilt +21 v. Kentucky | Top | 62-71 | Win | 100 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Vanderbilt Commodores plus the points over Kentucky. Vanderbilt's on a seven-game losing streak (including 0-5 ATS its last five). That's the bad news. The good news -- at least for tonight's game -- is that double-digit SEC Conference underdogs, off 4 ATS defeats, are 30-12 ATS vs. conference foes not off 4 ATS losses. Vanderbilt also falls into 119-54, 417-228 and 38-10 ATS systems of mine. Take the Commodores + the points. |
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01-28-20 | Richmond v. VCU -8.5 | Top | 68-87 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Commonwealth Rams minus the points over Richmond. These two rivals are located less than 6 miles apart in the city of Richmond. And the Spiders have not had much success vs. the Rams, including 8-18 ATS when playing away from their home gym. This season, both of these teams have identical 15-5 records, and 5-2 Atlantic 10 Conference records. The Rams did get off to an AWFUL start "in Vegas" this season, as they opened with a 4-13 ATS record. But they're 3-0 SU/ATS since that horrid start, including an 11-point road win at La Salle on Saturday. I look for VCU's resurgence to continue this evening, as VCU is a super 29-15 ATS in conference games as a favorite off back to back wins. And it also falls into a 338-216 ATS "momentum" system of mine which plays on certain favorites of more than 4 points off back-to-back wins. Take the Rams to blow out Richmond. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-27-20 | Ducks v. Sharks -135 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 21 h 28 m | Show |
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the San Jose Sharks over the Anaheim Ducks. If the Ducks are going to make a run at the post-season in the second half -- and avoid their second straight losing season after making the playoffs in six straight -- they're going to have to find a way to win on the road. Anaheim is basically a .500 team at home (11-12) but away from Honda Center, the Ducks are awful. Their 15 losses in regulation tie them for worst in that category in the Western Conference (Minnesota). The Sharks are in a similar situation, but actually have a winning record at home while taking just eight of 25 on the road. Tonight's game is in the Sharks' home arena and that's a good thing for them when it comes to this series lately. The hosts have dominated, taking each of the last four meetings going back to the Fall of 2018. And overall, the Ducks are just 5-13 in the last 18 meetings here at the SAP Center and 3-9 in the last 12 meetings overall. The Ducks do come into this game off back to back road wins. They beat a good Hurricanes team, 2-1, in OT in their most recent game, but are just 2-7 in their last nine after not giving up 3+ goals in their previous game. And the Ducks are also 3-13 in their last 16 games following a win. Take San Jose. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-26-20 | Evansville +13 v. Valparaiso | Top | 65-67 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
At 5 pm, our selection is on the Evansville Purple Aces + the points over Valparaiso. The Aces have lost their last 7 games -- both SU and ATS, including a 73-50 defeat at home to Drake, on Wednesday (and a narrow, 2-point loss to Valparaiso on Jan. 4). But this long SU/ATS losing streak has created great point spread value for this game, and has triggered several great systems of mine, with records of 164-90, 118-54, 416-228, 157-76 and 523-381 ATS since 1990. Additionally, Missouri Valley Conference teams are a solid 103-71 ATS as double-digit road underdogs, if they lost the season's earlier meeting. And Evansville is 7-1 ATS vs. conference foes, if the Aces lost by 20+ points at home in their previous game. Take the Aces + the points. |
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01-26-20 | UCLA v. Oregon -12.5 | Top | 75-96 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
At 5 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks minus the points over UCLA. The Bruins won the first leg of their 2-game road trip when they upset Oregon State, 62-58, as a 9-point road underdog. And that was the Bruins' 2nd straight win, overall. Unfortunately, UCLA is a poor 18-37 ATS off a road conference win, if they also won 2 games back. And the Ducks are an awesome 42-21-1 ATS vs. foes off an upset win, including 18-4 ATS when playing with revenge. With the Ducks, indeed, having revenge from a pair of losses last season, we'll lay the points with Oregon. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-26-20 | Maryland v. Indiana -1 | Top | 77-76 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Hoosiers over Maryland. Both of these teams own identical 15-4 records, and 5-3 conference records. Earlier this month, the Terrapins won Round 1 when they defeated Indiana in College Park, 75-59, as a 6.5-point home favorite. But we'll take the Hoosiers in this re-match, as .750 (or better) revenge-minded favorites, off back to back SU/ATS wins, have gone 146-95 ATS at home since 1990. Take Indiana. |
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01-25-20 | St. Joe's +6 v. George Washington | Top | 69-85 | Loss | -111 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
At 4 pm, our selection is on the St. Joseph's Hawks + the points over George Washington.  The Hawks were blown out, 73-60, at home on Tuesday by VCU. And that was their 6th loss in their last seven games. And they're just 4-15 on the season. But the Hawks are an awesome 32-9-1 ATS on the road off a double-digit loss, including 15-2 ATS if their previous game was at home. And St. Joseph's also falls into 2 of my favorite systems, with records of 43-9 and 195-96 ATS since 1990. Take the Hawks + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-24-20 | Wisconsin v. Purdue -4 | Top | 51-70 | Win | 100 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Purdue Boilermakers minus the points over Wisconsin. Matt Painter's men dropped their second straight game, 79-62, on Tuesday vs. Illinois. But we'll lay the points with Purdue tonight, and look for it to bounce back in a big way vs. a Wisconsin team off an 82-68 victory vs. Nebraska. Purdue is a solid 34-14-2 ATS off a double-digit loss, including 10-2 ATS off back to back losses, if now matched-up against a Big 10 Conference foe. Purdue's 19-3 SU and 17-5 ATS at home vs. the Badgers, and it's also 12-0 ATS in the regular season vs. Wisconsin when priced from -3 to -9. Lay the points with the Boilers. |
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01-23-20 | Louisiana Tech v. Middle Tennessee +10.5 | Top | 80-73 | Win | 100 | 16 h 14 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Middle Tennessee St. Blue Raiders + the points over Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs were upset, 51-50, at home by North Texas on Saturday. And they're now a double-digit road favorite here in Murfreesboro. Unfortunately for the Bulldogs, road favorites of -9 (or more) points are a terrible 23-51-2 ATS off an upset loss at home. And Middle Tenn is a solid 123-96 ATS at home, including 5-0 ATS as an underdog of more than 6 points in conference games. The Blue Raiders fall into 448-266 and 487-320 ATS systems of mine. Take Middle Tenn + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-22-20 | Nuggets v. Rockets -8 | Top | 105-121 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets minus the points over Denver. The Rockets collapsed two nights ago, as they were outscored by 21 points in the 4th quarter to lose to OKC by five, 112-107. We'll take the Rockets to rebound off that loss, as they'll benefit by facing an injury-riddled Nuggets squad tonight. Starters Paul Millsap, Gary Harris and Jamal Murray all are sidelined for Denver. And it's not as if Denver's had much success vs. Houston even when fully healthy. Indeed, Houston's now won seven straight home games vs. Denver (5-2 ATS), and is 11-2 SU and 9-4 ATS in the last 13 games, overall. Lay the points with Houston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-22-20 | Lakers -11 v. Knicks | Top | 100-92 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the LA Lakers minus the points over New York. The Lakers had their worst defeat of the season when they fell to Boston, 139-107, on Martin Luther King, Jr. Day. We'll lay the points tonight with L.A., as the Lakers are 107-78 ATS on the road in non-division games vs. losing teams off a point spread win. And LeBron James' teams have gone 74% ATS in his career as a road favorite of -6+ points off an upset loss. Take the Lakers. |
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01-22-20 | Kings +1.5 v. Pistons | Top | 106-127 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings over Detroit. The Kings have lost five straight games after falling in overtime at Miami on Monday. But they're an awesome 19-4 ATS on the road off a road loss, if they're off back to back losses, overall. Take Sacramento. |
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01-21-20 | Wyoming +24 v. San Diego State | Top | 55-72 | Win | 100 | 24 h 38 m | Show |
At 11 pm, our selection is on the Wyoming Cowboys + the points over San Diego St. The Aztecs, at 19-0, remain the country's lone unbeaten team. But we will grab the double-digits with Wyoming, which has lost its last six games. The Cowboys play with revenge from a 20-point loss to San Diego St. less than two weeks ago. And Mountain West conference road underdogs of more than 13 points have gone 42-18 ATS vs. foes off back to back wins, if our road underdog was playing with revenge. Even better: undefeated teams, with a 19-0 or better record, have covered just 35.1% since 1990 at home, including 20% vs. foes with a .455 (or worse) win percentage. Wyoming also falls into two of my favorite College Basketball systems, that are 194-94 and 94-37 ATS since 1990. Take the Cowboys. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-20-20 | Pacers v. Jazz -6.5 | Top | 88-118 | Win | 100 | 16 h 15 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Indiana. We played on the Jazz two nights ago, and easily got the $$$ when they blew out Sacramento, 123-101. Meanwhile, the Pacers won in Denver vs. the Nuggets last night for their fifth straight win. We'll come right back with Utah on Monday, as it seeks revenge from a 19-point loss in Indianapolis earlier this season.  And the Jazz fall my best revenge system, which is 78-19 ATS since 1990. Even better: Utah's 16-2 SU its last 18, and 11-2 ATS its last 13. Finally, Utah is an awesome 67-35 ATS when rested, and playing an unrested foe off back-to-back wins. Take the Jazz. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-20-20 | Thunder v. Rockets -6.5 | Top | 112-107 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
At 5:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets minus the points over Oklahoma City. These two teams met 11 days ago in Oklahoma, and the Thunder came away with a 113-92 victory, as a 3-point home underdog. We'll take the Rockets in this re-match, as they're 24-13 ATS when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season, including 11-1 ATS if they failed to cover the spread by more than 18 points in that defeat. Houston also falls into a 197-128 ATS revenge system of mine. Take the Rockets. |
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01-20-20 | Magic -4 v. Hornets | Top | 106-83 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
At 5:05 pm, our selection is on the Orlando Magic minus the points over Charlotte. The Magic stumbled badly in their last two games -- at the Clippers and at the Warriors -- as they lost by 27 and 14 points, respectively. But Orlando had covered seven of eight prior to those two games. The loss at Golden State was particularly embarrassing, as the Warriors were on a 10-game losing streak entering that game. But teams off upset losses to foes on long losing streaks tend to bounce back in their next game, and the Magic fall into a 60.8% ATS system of mine which plays on such teams. Orlando's 14-6 ATS as a road favorite of less than 6 points, while Charlotte's an awful 20-36-2 ATS off a loss by 7 or more points. Take the Magic. |
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01-19-20 | Packers v. 49ers -7.5 | Top | 20-37 | Win | 100 | 17 h 0 m | Show |
At 6:40 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points over Green Bay. Last week, we played on the Packers and were rewarded with a 28-23 victory over Seattle. And that was Green Bay's 6th straight win, overall. Unfortunately, its win streak should come to a screeching halt this weekend, as it falls into a negative system, which is 5-35 SU and 9-31 ATS. What we want to do is play AGAINST any underdog of +3 (or more) points off 5+ wins, if it's now playing a foe with a winning record. And even though there's nothing wrong with 31-9 ATS, we can improve our situation to 16-0 SU and 15-1 ATS by solely going against teams that don't average 24.85 points per game on offense. It's absolutely true that Green Bay will certainly want to avenge its blowout loss here earlier in the season. But revenge-minded NFL teams have performed very poorly in Conference Championship road games, as they've gone 16-28 ATS. Also, the 49ers are 11-1 SU and 8-3-1 ATS as home favorites priced from -3 to -7.5 points in the Playoffs. And NFL favorites, priced from -3.5 to -9.5 points have gone 30-15 ATS in Conference Championship games. Take the 49ers minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-18-20 | Kings v. Jazz -9.5 | Top | 101-123 | Win | 100 | 15 h 6 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Sacramento. The Jazz are one of the league's hottest teams, with 15 wins in their last 17 games (11-4-2 ATS), though they did lose their most recent game this past Thursday, at New Orleans. In contrast, the Kings are mired in a 3-12 SU and 4-11 ATS stretch. But Utah's an awesome 32-6 SU and 27-10-1 ATS at home when both it, and its foe were off losses (including 15-1-1 ATS when priced from -4.5 to -10 points). And it also falls into a 73% ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off SU/ATS losses. Take Utah. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-18-20 | East v. West -3 | Top | 31-27 | Loss | -100 | 49 h 4 m | Show |
At 3 pm, our selection is on the West minus the points. The West has dominated the East-West Shrine game of late, with 4 straight wins. And, in those four games, the East squad has averaged 9.7 ppg. That doesn't bode well for the East team on Saturday. Nor does the fact that the East's three QBs are Tommy Stevens (Miss State), Kevin Davidson (Princeton) and James Morgan (Florida International). In contrast, the West has the best QB (Mason Fine, North Texas) on its roster, along with Tyler Huntley (Utah) and Kelly Bryant (Missouri). Lay the points with the West in the Shrine game on Saturday. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-17-20 | Ducks v. Hurricanes -220 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -220 | 17 h 51 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Hurricanes over the Anaheim Ducks. After winning three straight games here at home, the Hurricanes have now lost two on the road coming into tonight. But the first of those two was against the best team in the league (the Caps) and last night's defeat was a very unfortunate bad beat in Columbus. Despite out-shooting the Blue Jackets by a lopsided total (34-18) and outplaying the hosts through 60 minutes, the 'Canes somehow lost 3-2. Goalie Petr Mrazek certainly should take some of the blame as he made just 15 saves on 18 shots. And tonight Mrazek will be watching from the bench as James Reimer gets the call in net. Anaheim hasn't been to Carolina in over a year (November of 2018) when the 'Canes lost a tough one in OT, 2-1. This will be the second and last meeting of these two this season and it's a revenge situation for Carolina which lost in Anaheim back on October 18, 4-2. It's not the best situation for the Ducks right now as they are 1-5 in their last six vs. teams from the East and 1-5 in their last six vs. those from the Metropolitan Division. And although the 'Canes have to turn right around after their loss in Columbus, they are 4-0 in their last four playing on zero days' rest. They are also 6-1 in their last six vs. teams from the Pacific Division. Take Carolina. As always, good luck...Al McMordie
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01-16-20 | Hurricanes -131 v. Blue Jackets | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -131 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Hurricanes over the Columbus Blue Jackets. This is a huge revenge game for Carolina, which has lost both prior meetings to the Jackets this season. But we'll take the Hurricanes to avenge those defeats, as they come into this game off a rare shutout loss, 2-0, to the Capitals on Monday. But Carolina is a perfect 3-0 this season off a shutout defeat. Coincidentally, the Blue Jackets come into this game off back-to-back shutout wins. Unfortunately, Columbus is a poor 3-7 this season after allowing less than 3 goals in each of their two previous games.  Take Carolina. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-16-20 | Quinnipiac v. Manhattan -1.5 | Top | 57-69 | Win | 100 | 1 h 14 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Manhattan Jaspers minus the points over Quinnipiac. The Jaspers' leading scorer, Tykei Greene (12.1 ppg), has been upgraded to 'probable' for tonight's game. And that's all I needed to pull the trigger on Manhattan, as Manhattan falls into a 125-55 ATS 'momentum' system of mine which plays on certain teams off upset wins.  The Jaspers have gotten off to a 3-1 start in MAAC play this season, even though they've been underdogs in three of their four games, including an upset win as a 2.5-point home dog vs. Siena their previous game. Manhattan's 55-34 ATS off a conference win, while the Bobcats are a poor 9-17 ATS off back to back wins, including 2-10 ATS if their last win was by double-digits. Lay the points with Manhattan. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-15-20 | Spurs v. Heat -5 | Top | 100-106 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat minus the points over San Antonio. The Spurs came back from an 18-point deficit to stun the Raptors on Sunday, 105-104. San Antonio was a 5-point underdog in that game. However, the Spurs are still a horrible 4-42 straight-up, and 19-26-1 ATS when installed as a road underdog of +4 or more points. Meanwhile, the Heat are 44-17-2 ATS off back to back losses when playing an opponent off a SU win. Take Miami. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-14-20 | Canucks v. Jets -130 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 10 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Winnipeg Jets over Vancouver. Winnipeg was blanked, 1-0, at home on Sunday by Nashville. And that was the Jets' 2nd shutout loss this season. The first time was back on November 12, when the Avalanche defeated Winnipeg, 4-0. Winnipeg bounced back nicely in its next game, as it won at Florida, 4-3, as a +150 underdog. And that's been par for the course for the Jets, as they're an awesome 8-0 (+9 games on the money line) the past 3 seasons after a shutout loss, and also 7-1 this season after scoring less than 2 goals in their previous game. Even better: Vancouver will be playing its 3rd game in 4 nights, and it's a poor 17-26 in that scheduling situation. Take Winnipeg. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-13-20 | Clemson +6.5 v. LSU | Top | 25-42 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
At 8 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Clemson Tigers + the points over LSU. In last year's College Football playoff, we had a big play on the Clemson Tigers +5 over Alabama -- a game easily won by Clemson, 44-16. And tonight's game is cut from a similar cloth. In my analysis last season, I wrote that it is very rare to get a big underdog in a bowl game which not only has the much better defense, but also the much better offensive/defensive rushing statistics. That was the case last year, and it's also the case this season. Clemson's defense is a staggering 10.14 ppg better than LSU's. And its offensive yards per rush (YPR) is 1.5 yards better, while its defensive YPR is 0.5 yards better. NCAA football underdogs that own the better defense, as well as the better YPR statistics are currently on a 68.4% ATS run in the bowl games. That bodes well for the Clemson Tigers tonight. As does the fact that, at Game 10 forward, .928 (or better) teams have cashed 64% as underdogs of +4 (or more) points. Finally, it's certainly true that the SEC Conference has been the best in College Football over the last several years. And in Bowl games, the SEC has been terrific as an underdog (8-0 ATS the last 3 seasons). But as a favorite, the SEC teams have fallen short lately, including 0-10 ATS their last 10 when priced from -3 to -7 points off a win! Take the Clemson Tigers + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
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01-12-20 | Clippers v. Nuggets -1 | Top | 104-114 | Win | 100 | 17 h 40 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over the LA Clippers. The Clippers finished their 4-game home stand with back-to-back wins over the Knicks and Warriors, but they failed to cover the spread in each game. Los Angeles will now travel to the Pepsi Center to play a Nuggets team which surely will be in an ornery mood following its upset loss yesterday. And perhaps the Nuggets were looking ahead to this match-up vs. the Clippers when they played the Cavaliers last night. Because, clearly, Denver didn't show up. The Nuggets were favored by 12.5 points, but lost, 111-103, to the woeful Cavs. And that's continued a trend this season where the Nuggets have lost to many of the league's worst clubs (e.g., Kings, Hawks, Pelicans (twice), Wizards). Denver, typically, has bounced back from such embarrassing losses, as they've gone 6-0 the past two years after losing to a team with a win percentage below .300. Also, some good news for Denver, tonight is that the Clippers' Paul George won't suit up due to a hamstring injury. Even better: the Nuggets have won and covered nine of the last 12 meetings here vs. the Clippers, including 21 and 27-point victories last season. Finally, the Clippers are an awful 3-23 straight-up, and 4-22 ATS as a single-digit underdog (or PK) in non-division games, if the Clippers won their previous game, straight-up. Take Denver minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-11-20 | Oklahoma v. Iowa State -2.5 | Top | 68-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Iowa State Cyclones minus the points over Oklahoma. The Cyclones were blown out by Kansas, 79-53, on Wednesday, and fell to 0-2 in Big 12 Conference play. But I love them to bounce back tonight, here at home, vs. Oklahoma. ISU has been installed as a small home favorite. And the Cyclones are an awesome 43-22 ATS as single-digit home favorites off a conference defeat. Moreover, the Cyclones have dominated the Sooners, with a 33-16 ATS record, including 9-2 ATS their last 11. Finally, Iowa State falls into 29-2, 41-11 and 123-61 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off back to back losses. Take Iowa State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-10-20 | Penguins v. Avalanche -154 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -154 | 17 h 15 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Avalanche over the Pittsburgh Penguins. Leave to the Penguins to come up with a hot young goaltender virtually out of nowhere. They did it a few years ago when Matt Murray first hit the scene and the then-21-year-old contributed to his team winning a couple of Stanley Cups. Now with Murray struggling somewhat, it's young Tristan Jarry who is the latest phenom between the Pittsburgh pipes. But the 24-year-old has lost two of his last three starts and is beginning to look mortal and it could be a case of the league finally catching up to him the way it did with Murray. So it appears the visitors will give their young net-minder a rest tonight and go with Murray for just his second start in the last 13 days. And Colorado's Pepsi Center is a tough place for a rusty goalie to get his wheels back as the Avalanche are averaging 3.90 goals-per-game here, which is the second-best home number in the league (Tampa's #1 at 4.14). The hosts have dominated this series lately with the home team winning each of the last four meetings going back more than two years (December 18, 2017). The Avs did lose their last game, 5-3, in New York to the Rangers. But they are 10-3 (+8 games on the money line) in their last 13 after allowing 4+ goals in their previous game. Take Colorado. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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01-09-20 | Celtics +2 v. 76ers | Top | 98-109 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics + the points over Philadelphia. We played on Boston last night vs. San Antonio, and were on the wrong side of that game, as the Spurs blew out the Celtics, 129-114. But off that loss, I look for Brad Stevens' men to rebound tonight against their division rival. And Boston will catch a break, as Sixers big man, Joel Embiid, will be sidelined for tonight's game (and the foreseeable future) with a dislocated finger. In Embiid's stead, tonight, will be veteran power forward Al Horford, who played the last three seasons in Boston. Unfortunately for Philadelphia, Horford's best days are now behind him, as he's shooting a career-worst 45% from the field. And, yes, it's true that this will be Boston's 5th game in seven nights. But since Stevens assumed the coaching duties in 2013, the Celtics are a jaw-dropping 14-0 ATS as a road underdog when playing their fifth game in seven nights. Additionally, the Celtics are 16-6 ATS under Stevens in the regular season when playing with double-revenge. Take Boston + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-08-20 | Jets v. Maple Leafs -185 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -185 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Maple Leafs over the Winnipeg Jets. Lofty expectations for the Maple Leafs this season were initially met with some very underwhelming results. Through their first 23 games, the Leafs went 9-14. But since that point (the third week of November), this team has been on a tear, as Toronto has reeled off 15 victories in its last 21 contests. This is the type of offensive juggernaut that the coaches and fans expected from the likes of John Tavares, Auston Matthews, and Mitch Marner. And, speaking of coaches, perhaps it was the change behind the bench when the Leafs replaced veteran coach Mike Babcock with Sheldon Keefe that made the difference as the newcomer is 15-5-1 since taking over. Matthews is second in the league in goals scored with only David Pastrnak of the Bruins besting his total of 29. The Leafs have an excellent chance to keep their fortunes going tonight against a Jets team that they've dominated lately. Toronto is 5-1 in the last six meetings with Winnipeg going back to February 2017. Moreover, Winnipeg is just 1-6 in its last seven games vs. teams with a winning record. Take Toronto. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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01-05-20 | Seahawks v. Eagles UNDER 45 | Top | 17-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
At 4:40 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Philadelphia/Seattle game. These two teams met earlier this season -- here in Philly -- and the Seahawks won a very low-scoring game, 17-9. And that's been par for the course for Philadelphia here, as the Eagles have now gone 'under' the total in their last six (and in 24 of their last 34) home games. And they've also gone 'under' the total 7-1-1 in their last nine home NFL Playoff games. Additionally, the 'under' is 33-18 in competitively-priced games with point spreads less than 3. And this game (to go 'under') also falls into a 23-3 Totals system of mine, which is statistically-based. Take the 'under.' Good luck, as always, Al McMordie. |
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01-04-20 | Bills v. Texans OVER 43.5 | Top | 19-22 | Loss | -103 | 23 h 24 m | Show |
At 4:35 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Buffalo/Houston game. The Buffalo Bills have now played six straight games that totaled 41 or less points. And outside of their two games vs. Miami, none of their other 14 games equaled the posted total for this game. And it's not just on the defensive side of the ball where points are hard-earned; the Bills, themselves, have scored just 6, 17, and 17 in their three previous games. The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for yet another low-scoring Buffalo game on this Saturday. But knee-jerk reactions are often the wrong move. Indeed, teams (like Buffalo) that scored 42 or less points over their three previous games have gone 'over' the total 75 percent of the time over the last 26 seasons. And these two teams also fall into 57-33 and 53-32 Totals systems of mine. Take the 'over.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-03-20 | 76ers +4.5 v. Rockets | Top | 108-118 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 36 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers + the points over Houston. Brett Brown's Sixers were blown out by the Pacers on Tuesday, 115-97. And that was Philly's 3rd straight loss, overall -- all on the road. But I look for the 76ers to bounce back in the underdog role tonight, at Houston, as NBA road teams have gone 281-228 ATS in the regular season off a double-digit SU/ATS loss, if they weren't getting more than 6 points, and their opponent was off a straight-up win, including 42-14 ATS vs. .625 (or better) non-division foes. Even better: rested NBA road teams have gone 179-122 ATS in the regular season off 3 straight road losses, if now playing a winning opponent. Take the 76ers + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-02-20 | Texas-Arlington -3 v. Arkansas State | Top | 73-52 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Texas Arlington Mavericks minus the points over Arkansas State. The Mavericks hope to win the Sun Belt Conference this season (after finishing 2nd the past two seasons). The Mavs were the preseason #2 pick to win the Sun Belt Conference this season, in part, because they returned five starters from last year's team which went 12-6 inside the conference. But they've gotten off to an 0-2 start, after road losses at Georgia State (last season's champ) and Georgia Southern (12-6 last season). I look for them to break through tonight, and earn their first conference win, against a Red Wolves team which returned just one starter from the team which finished ninth (7-11) in the league last season. Arlington is 53-32-4 ATS off a loss. And it also falls into a super 73.2% ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off back to back losses. Take Texas Arlington minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-01-20 | Predators +104 v. Stars | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
At 2:05 pm, our selection is on the Nashville Predators over the Dallas Stars. The Cotton Bowl will be only the third venue in the state of Texas to host a regular season NHL game today when the puck drops for the 12th Winter Classic (Reunion Arena and American Airlines Center being the other two). It is the first time a hockey game will be played here as the Predators come into Dallas for the first time since Game Six of the first round of the Western Conference Playoffs last April. Dallas won that series (they lost in the second round) so not only are the Preds looking for some revenge from that but also from the only previous meeting of these two this season as the Stars won 4-1 in Nashville just a little more than two weeks ago. The Predators are 39-21 (+11 games on the money line) in their last 60 games revenging a same season loss vs. an opponent, so the revenge situation works well for them. They've lost two in a row, but they were both against a red-hot Penguins team, 6-4 and 5-2, and the Preds are 7-1 in their last eight (and 35-12 their last 48) immediately after allowing more than 2 goals in each of their two previous games. Finally, it's worth noting that the road teams have gone 8-2-1 in the first 11 Winter Classics. Take Nashville. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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12-31-19 | Butler v. St. John's +4 | Top | 60-58 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the St Johns Red Storm + the points over Butler. These two teams met here last February, and the Johnnies upset Butler, 77-73, as a 3.5-point home dog. At the time of that game, both teams had losing 5-6 records in Conference play. But both teams look to be improved this season. Butler's 12-1, while St. John's is 11-2 SU and 7-4-1 ATS thus far. Butler's been installed as a road favorite, once again. But we'll take the home team tonight, as .800 (or better) home dogs, with a winning ATS record, have cashed 60% over the last 30 years vs. foes off a SU/ATS win. Moreover, Butler's a dismal 5-16 ATS away from home vs. conference foes, including 1-12 ATS with revenge. Take St. John's. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-30-19 | Yale v. North Carolina -6.5 | Top | 67-70 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the North Carolina Tar Heels minus the points over Yale. The Tar Heels have been installed as a single-digit home favorite vs. the Bulldogs. And, over the years, the Tar Heels have dominated non-conference foes here in Chapel Hill. Since 1990, North Carolina's gone 149-16 straight-up, and 101-62-2 ATS in its lined games at home vs. non-conference opposition. And if UNC was playing a top-level opponent with a win percentage greater than .750, then UNC has been even better -- 52-3 straight-up, and 39-16 ATS, including 12-1 ATS when priced from -3.5 to -10! Take North Carolina minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-29-19 | Islanders +104 v. Wild | Top | 3-1 | Win | 104 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the NY Islanders over Minnesota. The Wild exploded for six goals at Colorado, on Friday, as they won their second straight game. This evening, they're back home, and will welcome the Islanders to Xcel Energy Center. The Isles lost, 5-2, at Chicago on Friday. And that was their 3rd straight loss, overall, as they succumbed, 3-2, on Monday to Columbus, and 6-5 to Anaheim two days before that. I look for New York to rebound this evening, as it's a super 19-4 after not scoring 3+ goals in either of its two previous games. Even better: the Wild are a dreadful 7-21 (minus 20 games on the money line) off a win over a division rival. And Minny's also 25-41 (minus 23 games on the money line) after scoring 3+ goals in back to back games. Take the Islanders. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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