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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-30-16 | Oregon State +13 v. Arizona | Top | 63-80 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAAB Game #659 - *10* Oregon State Beavers +13.5 @ Arizona @ 9:30 ET Saturday - The last time the Beavers faced the Wildcats the game was also in Arizona and Oregon State was thoroughly embarrassed as they scored just 34 points. The Beavers had split the prior two games with Arizona and both games were decided by 5 points or less. I look for another tight one on Saturday night. Not only is Oregon State looking to make amends for their prior visit to Arizona, the Beavers are also off of a game where they allowed Arizona State to shoot nearly 60% from the field. Prior to this atrocious effort defensively, the Beavers had actually been playing quite well on defense. holding 6 of their 8 prior opponents to 43.5% or less from the field. The Wildcats are hungry to get back on track at home after a home loss to Oregon. However, the Cats have lost two straight and four of their last seven games. Three of their last four opponents have shot 45% or better from the field. The coach is even questioning the leadership and hunger of his team after the recent back to back losses including rare home loss. Though that certainly makes this a bounce back spot for the Wildcats the problem is that they've been struggling recently despite shooting lights out from the field. Oregon State is capable of playing stifling defense and slowing this game down some. That's going to make it difficult for a frustrated Arizona team to get out and run the way they want to in this game. My money is on the Beavers being able to keep this one tight throughout as the Wildcats are really feeling the pressure right now and are unlikely to shoot as well as they had been as the pressure mounts as the losses mount. Oregon State has revenge on their minds here, they also are ticked off about the poor defensive effort against Arizona State, the Beavers have no pressure as they have "nothing to lose" here, and I look for them to go hard and remain competitive throughout this game. Prior to the ugly loss to the Sun Devils, four of the Beavers first six losses this season were by single digits. The Beavers are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS when playing with one day of rest or less this season while Arizona is 2-3 SU and 2-3 ATS when playing with the same parameters. In other words, this one should be a dogfight and I'll gladly grab the generous points as Oregon State is off of a blowout loss which is much easier to recover from then the heartbreakers that Arizona has recently suffered. |
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01-30-16 | Spurs v. Cavs +2 | Top | 103-117 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers +2 vs San Antonio @ 8:35 ET Â Saturday - In the first game after the coaching change the Cavaliers struggled as they shot an ugly 37.2% from the field. Since that tough first game Cleveland has responded by winning three straight and shooting 51% from the field in the three games combined. They beat a respectable Pistons team on the road last night and Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love, and LeBron James all scored at least 20 points. The "Big Three" have only recently all been healthy and all playing together and the results are starting to show. Detroit's coach raved about how well the Cavs played last night and commented about the fact that he couldn't blame his team for last night's loss the Cavs were simply that good. I don't see any of that changing tonight for Cleveland either. The Cavaliers are at home and playing with revenge as they host a Spurs team that defeated them by four points down in San Antonio earlier this month. Payback is on order here and San Antonio's road games over the past five weeks that have come against winning teams have included Houston and Golden State. The Spurs lost both games and got absolutely annihilated by the Warriors. Of course Cleveland also was recently thoroughly embarrassed by Golden State but the way the Cavs are now playing with James, Love and Irving leading the way and complemented by others giving solid contributions, I see huge value with the small home dog here. The Spurs are 6-11 SU and ATS in their last 17 games as a road favorite of 3 points or less. Cleveland is 4-1 ATS as an underdog this season and 13-6 ATS this season in their games against teams with a winning record. The Cavaliers are 18-3 at home this season and, as amazing as the Spurs have been at home this season, let's not forget they have already been beaten 7 times on enemy floors this season. That means in their stiffest road challenges they fall short quite often and I look for that to be the case again tonight. |
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01-30-16 | Wizards v. Rockets -3 | 123-122 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* Houston Rockets -3 vs Washington @ 8:05 ET Saturday - Even though Houston is in a back to back spot here the situation is actually quite positive for the Rockets. They faced a tough Thunder team in Oklahoma City last night and took the loss. Prior to that game Houston also lost against a very strong Spurs team in San Antonio. These two road losses against NBA elite were preceded by a stellar 9-3 run in the Rockets prior 12 games. The point is that the Rockets have proven this month that they have turned the corner and they are taking advantage of weaker foes. That said, the Wizards certainly fall into the category of weaker foe. Washington has been struggling of late and the Wizards simply are not playing fundamentally sound basketball. Washington has lost five of their past six games and they've given up 106 points or more in all five of those losses. The Wizards are showing no signs of turning things around and a road game in a tough venue against an angry foe is unlikely to help matters for Washington. The Wizards are 2-6 ATS this season in games with a posted total of 210 points or more and I look for Washington's faulty defense to let them down once again in this one. Houston is 13-7 ATS this season in games with a posted total of 210 points or more and the Rockets are also a solid 12-4 SU (and 10-6 SU) when they enter a game having played each of their three prior games on the road. Houston makes the most of the home court edge tonight. |
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01-30-16 | Washington State +12 v. UCLA | 50-83 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAAB Game #623 - *8* Washington State Cougars +12 @ UCLA @ 7 ET Saturday - UCLA is seeking revenge here but there are many reasons to fade the Bruins in this spot. One is that the Cougars have matched up well with UCLA in recent meetings as Washington State has covered each of the last three meetings and got the outright upset in two of those! The Bruins are an ugly 3-11 ATS as a favorite this season and UCLA again appears to be overpriced in this spot. The Bruins have lost 6 of their past 10 games and, although this game is a revenge game for UCLA, they have a much bigger revenge game on deck. Up next for UCLA is their most hated rival (USC) and the Trojans did beat the Bruins earlier this season so it's hard for UCLA to keep their full focus on this game. The Bruins have not won a game by a double digit margin since before Christmas and that was against McNeese State! Washington State is no McNeese State and I look for them to continue their streak of playing very well against UCLA and the Cougars should keep this one to a single digit margin throughout. 7 of the 11 losses Washington State has this season have come by a margin of 11 points or less and their solid offense (48.6% from the field) will keep them in this game through the final whistle. |
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01-30-16 | Alabama v. South Carolina OVER 134.5 | Top | 64-78 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAAB Game #595 - *10* Top Play OVER 134.5 in South Carolina vs Alabama @ 6 ET Saturday - South Carolina plays this game with big time revenge as less than three weeks ago the Gamecocks faced the Crimson Tide at Alabama and were held to 50 points and suffered their first loss of the season. Since that dreadful performance from the South Carolina offense, the Gamecocks have averaged 78 points per game game in their last four games. The 78 points is also the season average for the Gamecocks but the point is that South Carolina is also scoring well in conference action. The only time that the Gamecocks have been held under 69 points of offense in their 7 SEC games this season was the ugly loss at Alabama. With that said, I look for South Carolina to push very hard in this game as they look to secure a blowout win on their home floor. The reason that leads me to the over is because the Crimson Tide, under coach Avery Johnson, came into this season wanting to be a higher-scoring team. Coach Johnson wanted to make sure his team could play more of an uptempo style when needed. As expected, this has been necessary at times on the road in the SEC and the 3 Crimson Tide conference games away from home have all gone over the total. Alabama is allowing an average of 76 points per game on the SEC road and they aren't going to slow down the revenge-minded Gamecocks here. However, I do expect the Crimson Tide to do a great job of hanging with South Carolina in this one as Alabama's six losses since late November have come by a margin of 8 points or less in five of the six defeats. That means expecting a 76-68 type of game here is spot on. The over is 5-1 in South Carolina home games where they are a favorite of 6.5 to 9 points and I look for the over to improve to 4-0 in Alabama's SEC road games this season. |
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01-29-16 | Wolves v. Jazz OVER 194.5 | Top | 90-103 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play OVER 194.5 in Utah vs Minnesota @ 9:05 ET Friday - Minnesota is a very young and athletic team that thrives on pushing the tempo. The Timberwolves know that their best chance to get an upset win on the road is to force the Jazz to play at a faster pace than they'd like. Utah, playing with revenge here from a loss at Minny in late December, may be a little more aggressive than usual on offense anyway because the Jazz are looking at make amends for a horrific shooting performance last month against the T-wolves. Utah comes into this game having shot 49% or better in 2 of their last 3 games and the Jazz haves scored at least 101 points in 6 of their past 7 games. Minnesota has erupted for an average of 112 points per game in their past three games. The Timberwolves are hitting better than 50% of their shots from the field in their past six games combined and couple that with a Utah team putting up some big points in recent games and you have the perfect combination for seeing this game fly over the low total. The past three seasons combined, Minnesota is on a 17-9 run to the over in road games where they are a dog in a range of 6.5 to 9 points. Overall, in road games this season, the Timberwolves have gone 14-7 to the over. When off of a divisional game this season. the over is 6-3 in T-wolves games. With Utah averaging 106 points per game in their last 7 games and with Minny also certainly loving to "run and gun" I look for a very high-scoring entertaining match-up between these two teams that both are struggling this season and yet that both have kicked things up a notch in recent games. *10* Top Play OVER in Utah |
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01-29-16 | Cavs -4 v. Pistons | 114-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* Cleveland Cavaliers -4 @ Detroit @ 7:35 ET Friday - The "knee-jerk reaction" here is to back the Pistons at home because the Cavaliers have a big game on deck with San Antonio tomorrow night. However, the fact that the Cavs lost at Detroit earlier this season (without Kyrie Irving that night) has me backing Cleveland in this revenge spot. LeBron James and Company don't like losing (as evidence by their 32-12 record on the season) and they are hungry about getting revenge against a divisional foe tonight. The Cavs are certainly "on the uptick" after a recent home loss at the hands of the Bulls. The Cavaliers simply had a horrific shooting night against Chicago but the Cavs have responded by shooting "lights out" in their next two games. In fact, the Cavaliers have scored at least 114 points and shot at least 50.5% from the field in three of their past four games. The Cavs, prior to their loss at Detroit early this season, had won each of the three prior match-ups with the Pistons and Cleveland won those games by an average margin of nearly 10 points per game. Look for Cleveland, highly motivated here (James also fired up because of the allegations relating to his involvement in the firing of their coach) to get an absolutely huge road win tonight. Detroit is off of an easy win over the Sixers but has gone 4-7 ATS this season when they are off of a win by a margin of 10 points or more. Cleveland is 12-6 ATS this season in their games against teams with a winning record and the Cavs will certainly bring their "A game" tonight in this revenge situation. *8* CLEVELAND |
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01-29-16 | Princeton v. Brown +8 | Top | 83-59 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAAB *10* Top Play Brown Bears +8 vs Princeton @ 6 ET Friday - This is a tough spot for Princeton. Since January 9th, a tight win at Penn, the Tigers have played just one game. That was a win over a "cupcake opponent" as Princeton routed an over-matched Bryn Athyn team in non-conference action. This long layoff without any significant competition is really going to hurt the Tigers tonight as they return to Ivy League action. Further complicating the situation for Princeton is the fact that they are on the road tonight and have another road game (a big one) on deck for tomorrow. Saturday the Tigers will be at Yale and the Bulldogs are considered to be the "team to beat" in the League this season. With all of the above factors, it won't be a surprise when Princeton is not fully prepared to do battle with the Bears tonight. After all, Brown is easy for the Tigers to overlook since the Bears have a 5-11 record on the season and since Princeton has won each of the last four meetings between the teams. What I like about Brown in this spot is that they had to battle Yale last Friday and the Bears got thoroughly embarrassed on their home floor. Prior to that defeat though, Brown's last four losses (including another one against top Ivy team Yale), came by an average margin of just 4.8 points per defeat! The Bears went 2-4 in that six game stretch and all 4 losses were by a single digit margin. That said, look for Brown to take advantage of a very favorable situation tonight and, even if they don't spring the outright upset here, I do expect the Bears to keep this one very close. Brown is 4-2 ATS this season in their games against teams with a winning record. Also, when off of a loss in conference action the past two seasons, the Bears had a 10-5 ATS mark. Princeton is 1-4 ATS this season when off of a non-conference game. The last three seasons combined, the Tigers are 0-4 ATS as a road favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. *10* Top Play BROWNÂ |
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01-28-16 | UAB v. Western Kentucky +3.5 | Top | 62-69 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAAB Game #736 - *10* Top Play Western Kentucky Hilltoppers +3.5 vs UAB @ 7:30 ET - First off, this line looks a little funny doesn't it? A 17-3 UAB team is a small favorite against a 10-10 WK team. Long-time followers know that I have a tendency to be a contrarian and, certainly, in this case, I believe that the Blazers are screaming to be played here and, of course, that means I am on the Hilltoppers! Why would Western Kentucky be such a small dog here against mighty UAB? It has a lot to do with the revenge angle for sure. The Blazers knocked the Hilltoppers out of the conference tourney last spring by a single point. Needless to say Western Kentucky will be rocking tonight in anticipation of a big home win to get their revenge. The Hilltoppers have an 8-1 straight-up record on their home floor this season and WK is a fantastic 34-8 in home games the past three seasons combined. UAB is an ugly 0-5 ATS this season in games with a posted total in the 140 to 149.5 point range. The Blazers also have struggled in the role of small road favorite in recent seasons with a combined 2-5 ATS mark the past three seasons as a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points and that record includes 4 outright losses! I would not be surprised to see another outright upset tonight. Western Kentucky is playing their first home game in nearly 3 weeks so, needless to say, the Hilltoppers are fired up and they have averaged 82 points per game on their home floor this season. The Blazers are the better team defensively but UAB will struggle to slow down the Hilltoppers on their home floor. Western Kentucky highly motivated here and fully capable of another big performance on their home floor! |
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01-28-16 | Nuggets +6.5 v. Wizards | 117-113 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* Denver Nuggets +6.5 @ Washington @ 7:05 ET - The Nuggets have now covered 7 of their last 9 games as they snuck in for the cover at Boston last night. Though that game was very close to the spread I look for tonight's ATS win to come much easier for Denver as last night the Nuggets were flustered by the defense of the Celtics as evidenced by the 20 turnovers that Denver committed. Tonight the Nuggets will take advantage of facing a subpar Wizards defense that is certainly not known as being tenacious in the same manner that Boston was last night. Washington is struggling badly now with four losses in their past five games including four ATS losses in those five games. In a home game with a posted total between 205 and 209.5 points the Wizards are 1-5 ATS this season. The Nuggets are 8-3 ATS when they are off of a non-conference game and Denver has failed to cover the spread just once in their last four meetings with Washington. |
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01-28-16 | Hawks v. Pacers OVER 201.5 | Top | 92-111 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play OVER 201.5 in Indiana vs Atlanta @ 7:05 ET - Atlanta has put together some impressive stats on defense lately but the Hawks have also played quite a few weak foes. I look for this to be a tough test for Atlanta tonight as it's a back to back for the Hawks and they are facing a solid Pacers team. Indiana is off of a tight, low-scoring loss against the Clippers on Tuesday but, previously the Pacers had averaged 106.3 points per game in their 7 prior games. Indiana has been willing to play at a fast pace too as their opponents prior to the Clips game, had average 89 field goal attempts per game. Indiana beat Atlanta earlier this season in a low-scoring match-up but each of the three prior match-ups went over the total. That was the Hawks only game this season against a Central Division opponent that has stayed under the total. Each of the other 5 match-ups all went over the total. Also, the Hawks are off of an upset loss as a favorite and this situation has resulted in an 8-5 mark to the over. Atlanta also has revenge on their minds due to the early season loss to Indiana and this situation has seen the Hawks go 12-6 to the over this season! Atlanta will respond after last night's poor effort on their home floor and they are 5-1 to the over the last 6 times the Hawks have been held to 97 points or less. The Pacers also will be looking to respond after their poor effort on their home floor on Tuesday and Indiana has gone over 5 straight times when they are off of a game where they were held to 94 points or less. |
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01-28-16 | Cincinnati +2 v. Connecticut | 58-57 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAAB Game #719 - *8* Cincinnati Bearcats +2 @ Connecticut @ 7 ET - Cincinnati has been knocked out of the conference tourney each of the last two years by the Huskies. Do you think the Bearcats may have had this game at Connecticut highlighted on their calendars for awhile? Of course they did! This is a key revenge opportunity for Cincy and I expect them to make the most of it against UConn. The Bearcats come into this game surging with confidence because, although their strength is defense, Cincinnati is coming off of back to back hot shooting games that has seen the Cats average 86.5 points per game in winning their past two games. The Huskies come into this game off of three straight wins but they have shot the ball very poorly as UConn has been held to 36.2% or worse from the field in four of their past six games. The Huskies are 2-4 ATS in conference action this season and Connecticut has gone 0-2 SU and 0-2 ATS the past two seasons when they are at home in a price range of pick up to a -3. The Bearcats have done well with momentum in conference action as they are 3-1 ATS when off of a conference win this season and they have a 24-9 SU record when off of a conference win the past three seasons combined. Of course I am playing the Bearcats expecting the upset but will grab the small number available just in case we need the points but I don't expect to! |
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01-28-16 | Charlotte v. Florida International OVER 148.5 | Top | 72-69 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAAB Game #721 - *10* Top Play OVER 148.5 in Florida International vs Charlotte @ 7 ET - Charlotte has an ugly record on this season but, not only have the 49ers won two straight games to build confidence, these guys can put up a ton of points in a hurry. Charlotte has averaged 85.4 points per game in their last 8 games. The problem for the 49ers is they are not particularly fond of playing defense. Charlotte is allowing 81.4 points per game on the season. That is why I like the over so much in this match-up as there is no reason that either team should be kept below 80 points in this game. The 49ers held Western Kentucky to 25% shooting from three point land but previously had allowed their last five opponents to each connect on 44.4% or better. That spells trouble as Charlotte now faces a Panthers team that loves to play at a frenetic pace and set up open looks for its potent offense. Florida International has seen 5 of their last 7 games go over the total as the Panthers have averaged 76 points per game. FIU has been shooting the ball very well during their current 7-2 winning run and the opportunity to face a Charlotte team that focuses on offense means things should be wide open for the Florida International offense once again tonight. The over is 3-1 (75%) in Panthers home games this season. The over is 14-5 in Charlotte road games where their line ranges from a pick to a +3. The over is also 17-7 in 49ers road games where the posted total is in a range of 145 to 149.5 points! |
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01-27-16 | Hornets +5.5 v. Jazz | Top | 73-102 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Charlotte Hornets +5.5 @ Utah @ 9:05 ET - The Jazz are getting a lot of attention today but many are apparently losing sight of the fact that Utah has lost 5 of their past 7 games both straight-up and against the spread! The Hornets are certainly coming off of a hard-fought win at Sacramento but that victory over the Kings was on Monday so Charlotte has had some time to recuperate and get ready for tonight's battle at Utah. With that win the Hornets have now won 3 straight games and Charlotte also has covered the spread in 6 of their last 8 games. The Hornets are 5-2 ATS this season and 20-7 ATS the past three seasons as a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points which is where this line was before it started to move even higher offering even more value to Charlotte. It is hard to say where this line will settle but Utah is 8-23 straight-up (and has covered just 11 of the 31 games) when facing a team that is averaging 99 points or more per game this season. The Jazz seek revenge for a tight loss at Charlotte this month but don't overlook the fact that the Hornets scored just 66 points in an embarrassing loss at Utah in their most recent visit here. If that's not enough motivation for Charlotte to perform well tonight than nothing is! In all seriousness, the Hornets with significant underdog line value are the play here at Utah tonight. This is a case of two teams that have been trending in opposite directions in recent weeks and the Jazz will have to battle hard just to win this game let alone cover the sizable spread. |
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01-27-16 | Clippers v. Hawks OVER 207 | 85-83 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* OVER 207 in Atlanta vs LA Clippers @ 8:05 ET - The Clippers are off of a tight road win last night that featured a very low-scoring 4th quarter at Indiana. Of course the Pacers don't mind playing at a slower pace and that's what happened last night and the Clips got the very tight road win and it stayed under the total. Tonight I look for the Hawks to try and run the Clippers right out of the arena. Atlanta knows that is not a bad strategy as they catch LA playing not only in a back to back but also playing their 5th game in 7 days! Atlanta loves to push the tempo at home where they have averaged 109 points per game in their last 7 games. Also, the Hawks are coming off of a big road win at Denver where they exploded for 119 points. The over is 9-5 this season when Atlanta is off of a game where they allowed 105 points or more. Also, the Hawks have gone over 75% of the time (3-1) this season when they are a home favorite of 3 points or less. The over is 10-5 the last 3 seasons in Clippers games when they are a road dog of 3 points or less. Of course a tight game late means extra fouls and free throw trips and I foresee this turning into quite the high-scoring battle in Atlanta tonight as the Clips have been playing well even without Blake Griffin. The over is 13-5 the last 18 meetings between these teams in Atlanta. Look for another wild one tonight as Chris Paul and J.J. Redick continue their hot shooting in the absence of Griffin. |
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01-27-16 | South Florida v. Tulane OVER 126.5 | Top | 73-60 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAAB Game #539 - *10* Top Play OVER 125.5 in Tulane vs South Florida @ 8 ET - These teams combined for 151 points when they met at South Florida two weeks ago. Sure the Bulls and Green Wave have been unimpressive this season and sure they both have low scoring averages. However, what often happens when two bad teams meet is that they just "go off" on offense as they know this is a rare "winnable game" on their schedule. What helps add value to this theory Wednesday is that South Florida is off of a confidence-building win at Houston where the Bulls "went off" for 71 points. Tulane is off of an ugly 97-75 loss at Cincinnati marking the third time in their last five games that the Green Wave have allowed not only 50% or better from the field but, also, 50% or better from three point land! Tulane is 3-1 to the over this season when the total is in a range of 120 to 129.5 points. The Green Wave also are 4-2 to the over this season when they are off of a loss in conference action. South Florida likes to push the tempo when they are facing a weak foe and that is why they are 11-5 to the over the last 3 seasons when they face a team with a losing record. Look for the over to improve to 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these teams! |
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01-27-16 | Nuggets +8.5 v. Celtics | 103-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* Denver Nuggets +8.5 @ Boston @ 7:35 ET - Denver is off of an ugly 14 point home loss to Atlanta on Monday as the Hawks shot lights out while the Nuggets struggled. Simply put, it was just 'one of those nights' and I look for Denver to bounce back in a big way tonight as, prior to the Atlanta game, the Nuggets had covered four straight games and were on a 6-1 ATS run long-term. Boston is in a tough spot here. Not saying they won't win this game but the Celtics are now facing a Western Conference foe after back to back Eastern Conference foes on their two game road trip and they have a 'home and home' set with Orlando on deck. Boston is off of a big 25-point win over Washington and the Celtics could easily overlook the Nuggets with their 17-28 record on the season. Boston is off of three straight wins but they are 1-3 ATS this season when they enter a game on a winning streak of three games or more. As for the Nuggets, Denver is 7-3 ATS this season when they are off of a non-conference game and, after 'letting their guard down' at home against Atlanta, the Nuggets know they need to 'bring it' on the road at Boston if they want to get the win over the Celtics. Denver has revenge here as they lost both games to Boston last season and those defeats came by a combined margin of just five points. Look for another very close game here and that means huge line value with the big points and the Nuggets! |
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01-27-16 | DePaul +14 v. Butler | 53-67 | Push | 0 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAAB Game #531 - *8* DePaul Blue Demons +14 @ Butler @ 7 ET - Ever since a couple of blowout losses in mid-December the Blue Demons have been a different team. The wins have still been tough to come by but DePaul has been playing much better and has been much more competitive. With that said, this line is over-inflated and I like the value here with the big dog. The Blue Demons are coming off of a tight road win at Marquette a week ago. Though this was preceded by a 1-7 stretch since mid-December only one of those 7 losses came by more than 12 points and that was against a highly-ranked Xavier team. The fact is that the Blue Demons have been battling hard with opponents with the other 6 losses coming by an average margin of 8.5 points per game. I look for DePaul to also keep this game to a single digit margin as they bring in some extra confidence thanks to the road win over the Golden Eagles. The Blue Demons are on a 5-1 ATS run as a road dog of 12.5 to 15 points. Also, DePaul is on a stellar 8-2 ATS run when they are off of a win in conference action. Butler is 1-5 ATS this season in conference action. Also, the Bulldogs have just one cover in their last seven games as they continue to be over-valued. Butler has only had two straight-up wins in those seven games! That said, they don't need a blowout win tonight; they just need a win and I look for the Bulldogs to grind out a win by a single-digit margin. |
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01-26-16 | Wyoming +7 v. Fresno State | Top | 60-71 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAAB *10* Top Play Wyoming Cowboys +7.5 @ Fresno State @ 10 ET - The Cowboys are expected to have their star, Josh Adams, back on the floor tonight after he served a one game suspension. Even without Adams, Wyoming battled hard against Boise State Saturday and it was a 4-point game late. The Cowboys (a 7 point dog in that one) lost by 10 but considering Adams was out it was a truly valiant effort. I like the heart and fight I see from this team and the hunger that stems from the type of head coach they have. He gets the most out of his players and I look for Adams to be "chomping at the bit" tonight to get back on the floor and he could lead them to an outright upset win on the road in this one. If the Cowboys do fall short the generous points should be plenty for the cover. Wyoming's last 9 losses (prior to the loss to the Broncos) had been decided by an average margin of 6.4 points per game. The Cowboys play very competitive basketball and are difficult to blowout. This is especially true in a spot like this where Wyoming is off of back to back home losses and now gets their best player back on the floor and ready to go. Fresno State is off of a tight one point win at Air Force in their most recent game. The Bulldogs have not shot the ball well in their past two games and three of their past four wins have come by an average margin of victory of just 3.7 points. Fresno State's struggling offense will struggle to put away an upstart Cowboys team that has averaged 70 points per game in their past three games. Also, Wyoming is 7-2 ATS as an underdog this season and 9-3 ATS in their games against teams with a winning record this season. Fresno State, the past three seasons, is 1-5 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. Once again, the Bulldogs are overpriced here and the value is with a very hungry road dog ready to 'leave it all on the floor' tonight. |
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01-26-16 | Wizards v. Raptors OVER 204 | Top | 89-106 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play OVER 204 in Toronto vs Washington @ 7:35 ET - Washington got pummeled last night by Boston. As I predicted here, the Wizards were a little flat-footed after the long break due to the East Coast snowstorm. Well it will be a different story tonight. After scoring just 91 points last night, the Wizards now will be very ready to go in Toronto Tuesday. Washington previously had averaged 107 points per game in their nine prior games. The problem for the Wizards continues to be their defense which has allowed at least 100 points in six of their past seven games. Washington now takes on a red hot Toronto team that has won 8 straight games and the Raptors have averaged 105.4 points per game in their past 11 games. These teams have played lower scoring games when they've met so far this season but the situation here dictates a much faster pace between these hated rivals as the Raptors are still fired up about getting swept out of the post-season last spring by Washington while the Wizards will be ready to go after losing all 3 of the regular season meetings so far this season. The Raptors have recorded just 5 unders in their past 18 games. The Wizards are 16-7 to the over this season in games where they are an underdog. In road games this season Washington has gone 12-6 to the over. When playing on back to back days the over is 7-2 for the Wizards this season. Also, the over is 12-5 this season when Washington is off of a game where they allowed 105 points or more. Wizards will push the pace to bounce back from their loss last night but Toronto will continue their red hot offensive onslaught tonight and that should lead to an easy over here. |
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01-26-16 | Suns v. 76ers OVER 204.5 | 103-113 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* OVER 203.5 in Philadelphia vs Phoenix @ 7:05 ET - The Suns have not scored very well of late but a lot of that had to do with the competition they faced. Their homestand featured three teams that all have winning records on the season - Indiana, San Antonio, and Atlanta. Phoenix now takes to the road and visits and abysmal Sixers team in Philly. This should bring out the best in the Suns recently dormant offense but don't be surprised if the 76'ers match Phoenix bucket for bucket in this one. Let's face it, this is a match-up of two teams that have had poor seasons so look for a lot of offense here as it should simply be a run and gun affair to see who can outscore the other. The Sixers have been playing an uptempo game of late and are averaging 105.2 points per game in their last 5 games. The Suns are giving up 110.2 points per game in road games this season but the Sixers allow 106.2 points per game at home. This one should be an absolute track meet and Philadelphia is 13-7 to the over in home games this season and 13-8 to the over this season when they are off of a loss by a double digit margin. The Suns are 15-10 to the over games where they are an underdog this season and Phoenix is also a perfect 3-0 to the over when they enter a game with two days of rest between games. Each of the last two games in Philly between these clubs went over the total and the last game in Phoenix totaled 208 points. This one should fly over the total Tuesday. |
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01-26-16 | Texas Tech +14.5 v. Oklahoma | 67-91 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAAB Game #739 - *8* Texas Tech Red Raiders +14.5 @ Oklahoma @ 7 ET - The last time the Red Raiders visited Oklahoma it was one of the worst performances in Big 12 history as Texas Tech lost 81 to 36. Needless to say that performance a year ago nearly to the day has not been forgotten by the Red Raiders. 36 points! Texas Tech's other recent games with the Sooners the past two season featured an 8 point win at Oklahoma and two home losses by single digit margins. That said, I feel this spread is significantly inflated and there is big line value with the Red Raiders who will be highly motivated after what happened here last year. Texas Tech is 3-1 ATS the past three seasons in games with a posted total between 150 and 159.5 points. Also, the Red Raiders are a respectable 8-5 ATS in their games against teams with a winning record this season. The Sooners have covered just 2 of their 7 Big 12 games this season. Also, Oklahoma is an ugly 6-15 ATS long-term as a home favorite of 12.5 to 15 points. |
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01-26-16 | Virginia v. Wake Forest +6.5 | 72-71 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAAB Game #766 - *8* Wake Forest Demon Deacons +6.5 vs Virginia @ 7 ET - Something looks funny with this line, doesn't it? The Cavaliers are one of the top teams in the country and yet they are only laying about a half dozen points against a Demon Deacons team that has been struggling. Don't be fooled by the line as Wake Forest is the play here. The last time these teams met at Wake Forest the Demon Deacons were thoroughly embarrassed in a 70 to 34 loss. It was one of their worst performances in team history. Needless to say, this game has been circled on the calendar for Wake Forest for a long time and there is no better way to erase the bitter memory of that defeat than to come up with a huge upset win tonight. I am not necessarily predicting the outright win here but I am predicting a very tight game where there is huge value with these points. Remember that prior to the huge beatdown the Demon Deacons suffered at home, Wake Forest had gone into Virginia in February of last year and very nearly pulled off the outright upset as an 18 point dog! The Demon Deacons have won 12 of the last 14 when hosting Virginia. Wake Forest is 7-4 ATS as an underdog this season while the Cavaliers are 0-5 ATS on the road this season. Virginia is off of back to back key conference home wins but they have lost three straight games outright on the road. The Cavs were favored in each game and they lost each game. This could be deja vu but either way I do see the Demon Deacons getting the cash. |
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01-25-16 | Pistons +2 v. Jazz | Top | 95-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Detroit Pistons +2 @ Utah @ 9 ET - The Jazz are hosting the Pistons at the wrong time. Detroit is fired up after their Saturday loss at Denver as a 4.5 point favorite. The Pistons have responded well in this situation so far this season and I expect that to be the case again tonight as Detroit adds to an ATS mark of 8-1 this season when they are off of an upset loss as a favorite. While the Pistons are off of a loss the Jazz are actually off of a big win but it came against a horrible Nets team in Brooklyn. Prior to that victory for Utah on the road, the Jazz had lost four of their last five games. The Jazz have had two days off between games but often Western Conference teams struggle in the first game back home after a road trip to the East Coast. I look for that to be the case again tonight. Also, the Jazz are 11-17 ATS this season against strong offensive teams (those averaging 99 points or more per game). Utah also is 10-18 ATS the past three seasons when they enter a game with two or more days of rest between games. Once again holding true to the theory that sometimes rest = rust. The Pistons defeated the Jazz earlier this season in Detroit but they lost both match-ups last season and that included, of course, the lone match-up in Utah. That said, a little 'road revenge' is on order for Detroit tonight and, as they've done all season long, they respond when they are off of an upset loss in their prior game. *10* Top Play DETROIT |
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01-25-16 | Kansas +2 v. Iowa State | Top | 72-85 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAAB *10* Top Play Kansas Jayhawks @ Iowa State @ 9 ET - Recently I made a big play on the Wildcats of Kentucky when they were on the road and needed a big win because they were hearing it from their critics. They got the job done and gave me an easy win. This circumstance here is quite similar. The Jayhawks have been hearing it from their critics after some recent struggles and they need to 'answer the call' by coming up with a big road win in a venue that is certainly known as 'not an easy place to play'. With all due respect to Iowa State, the Cyclones have knocked Kansas out of the Big 12 Tourney each of the past two seasons and the Jayhawks have had this game circled on their calendar for a long time. Kansas has won three of the four regular season meetings between these teams the past two seasons so, of course, that included a road win here at Iowa State and I look for another one tonight. With losses in two of their past four games and with failing to cover all four of those games, Kansas seeks a 'signature win' tonight and that means motivation will be very high as the Jayhawks also seek revenge for those two tournament defeats at the hands of the Cyclones the past two seasons. Iowa State is off of three straight victories as they enter this game but Iowa State has struggled defensively against better teams. In their games against Oklahoma (twice), Baylor and Texas the Cyclones allowed an average of 88 points per game! The Jayhawks have held 10 of their past 15 opponents to 67 points or less and they will be highly motivated to play one of their best defensive games of the season tonight at Iowa State. *10* Top Play KANSAS |
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01-25-16 | Celtics +2.5 v. Wizards | 116-91 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* Boston Celtics +2.5 @ Washington @ 7 ET - Having not played since Wednesday (due to the snow storm that paralyzed DC starting Friday evening), this is a tough spot for the Wizards. Washington is likely to not be as sharp as they normally would as there is a point where too much of a good thing can be a problem. In this case I am talking about too much rest. Having not played a game in five days, rest can oftentimes turn to rust for a team and that is what I expect from the Wizards tonight. The concern is magnified by the fact that Washington already had not been playing well at home because, before the win over the Heat Wednesday, the Wizards had lost five of their last six home games! Now Washington is hosting a confident and fresh Celtics team tonight. Yes, Boston did play yesterday but the game was in Philly against the hapless Sixers so the Celtics didn't have to work too hard in earning the victory by a 20 point margin over the 76'ers. Boston has won 5 of their past 7 games and the Celtics have averaged 112 points per game in their last 8 games. Look for the rusty Wizards to have trouble keeping up with a Celtics offense that has been putting up some big numbers on offense in recent games. Boston is 11-1 ATS the past three seasons in road games with a posted total of 210 points or more. The Celtics are also 33-14 ATS in the second game of back to backs the past three seasons. The Wizards are 2-4 ATS in games with a posted total of 210 or greater this season. Washington is also an ugly 2-6 ATS this season when they are off of a win by a margin of 10 points or more. |
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01-25-16 | Penn State +8.5 v. Ohio State | 46-66 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAAB *8* Penn State Nittany Lions +8.5 @ Ohio State @ 7 ET - As a road dog of 6.5 to 9 points the Nittany Lions have gone 6-2 ATS the past three seasons combined. Penn State is off of a tight home loss to Wisconsin where the Lions were held to just 60 points. The Nittany Lions are 3-1 straight-up and have just 1 ATS loss this season in the 4 occurrences this season where Penn State was off of a game where they were held to 60 points or less. Look for them to respond against the rival Buckeyes tonight as Ohio State's recent struggles continue. The Buckeyes have lost three of their past four games and they've given up an average of 82 points per game during this rough stretch. Look for Ohio State to drop to 0-3 ATS this season as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. Two seasons ago Penn State won both match-ups with the Buckeyes but Ohio State then took both games against the Nittany Lions last season so a little payback is on order. Good line value here with the generous points being offered. |
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01-24-16 | Clippers v. Raptors -1.5 | Top | 94-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Toronto Raptors -1.5 vs LA Clippers @ 6:05 ET Sunday - The Clippers are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and they have lost 2 of their past 4 games with the Blake Griffin injury definitely having an impact. That said, the play here is on a rested and healthier Raptors team that has won and covered each of the last three match-ups between these teams. Toronto brings a 7 game winning streak into this game and the Raptors have covered 6 of those 7 games. The Raptors are 12-7 ATS this season in their games against teams with a winning record. While Toronto has been at their best against strong teams it is unlikely the Clips are going to "turn the corner" here as LA has gone 4-8 ATS when they are off of a game where they allowed 105 points or more. Look for the Raptors to stay hot here at home (where they are 14-6 this season) while the Clippers drop to 0-4 ATS in Sunday games this season. |
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01-24-16 | Iona v. Fairfield +4.5 | 91-98 | Win | 100 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAAB *8* Fairfield Stags +4.5 vs Iona @ 3:30 ET Sunday - Line looks funny, doesn't it? Considering that Iona has won 5 straight games against Fairfield and has an average margin of victory of 15 points per win, this line does indeed look off. Don't fall for the trap. While it may look enticing to grab the Gaels here as a short road favorite, they are slumping miserably right now. Even though Jordan Washington is expected back for this game, Iona has struggled since the Monmouth debacle that resulted in his suspension. The Gaels are still trying to get their 'mojo' back and I don't see that happening on the road where they have won just 2 of 9 games this sesaon! Iona has just ONE cover in their past TEN games. The Gaels have not defended the 3-ball well at all in their past four games and the Stags have some sharpshooters than can take advantage from beyond the arc. Fairfield comes in with a 10-6 SU mark in their last 16 games and the winning is starting to breed some confidence for a Stags team that is ready to resume the winning on their home floor. They are 6-3 at home this season but lost their most recent home game and also have revenge on their minds here as they look to avenge the earlier loss at Iona in early December. The Stags are catching Iona at the right time to take advantage as the Gaels slumping ATS ways continue. Both teams have just one day of rest heading into this game but Fairfield has the homecourt edge plus the Stags will capitalize on Iona's struggles in this situation this season as the Gaels are 0-5 ATS when playing with one day or less of rest. |
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01-24-16 | Purdue v. Iowa OVER 143.5 | Top | 71-83 | Win | 100 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAAB *10* Top Play OVER 143.5 in Iowa vs Purdue @ 1 ET Sunday - The last time these teams met in Iowa they combined for 87 points by the half and the game totaled 159 points by the final horn. I look for a similar result on Sunday. We are getting some line value here as already this total has moved downward off of it's 145 opener. A lot of this likely has to do with the fact the teams combined for just 133 points when they met at Purdue early this month. There is plenty of support for predicting a much higher scoring game in the rematch. The Hawkeyes have continued their winning ways but the result is they are starting to relax some on the defensive end. Iowa has allowed shooting percentages of 46.3% and 48.4% in their last two games. These two games each totaled 153 points or more as the Hawkeyes offense has made up for their shortcomings on the defensive end. Iowa is averaging 81.6 points per game this season and Purdue is not far behind with 79.5 points per game. The Boilermakers have scored at least 70 points in five straight games while the Hawkeyes have scored at least 70 points in 13 straight games. I realize this is a key Big Ten battle but I just don't see other defense being able to slow down the talented playmakers these teams each possess. The over is 3-1 in Purdue games this season when they are off of a win in conference action. The over is also a long-term 30-19 in Boilermakers games when they are playing with home loss revenge. The over is 7-3 in Iowa games when they are a favorite and the over is a perfect 3-0 in Hawkeyes home games with a posted total between 140 and 144.5 points this season. When Iowa is in a 'running and gunning' phase they normally maintain it. The over is 21-10 the past three seasons when the Hawkeyes are off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. |
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01-24-16 | SMU v. Temple +7 | 80-89 | Win | 100 | 4 h 14 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAAB *8* Temple Owls +7 vs SMU @ Noon ET Sunday - I continue to capitalize on the fact that SMU is a little over-rated right now. Yes, the Mustangs are undefeated on the season but they have failed to cover 4 of their past 6 games. This is a tough road trip for them to the northeast and they face the hungry Owls who have revenge on their minds from losing all three match-ups with the Mustangs last year. That included getting knocked out of the AAC tourney in March by Southern Methodist. Temple is 6-2 ATS as an underdog this season and the Owls are 9-3 ATS in their games against teams with a winning record. SMU is 2-4 ATS this season when they are off of a win against a conference foe. The home dog Owls are completely capable of putting the first blemish on the Mustangs unblemished record but, even if they fall short, the generous points should be enough for the cover here. Ever since they got blasted by Houston in early January, the Owls have responded by playing stellar defense and they now have covered five straight games. Look for that ATS streak to reach a perfect 6-0 for Temple in snowy Philly on Sunday. |
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01-23-16 | Bucks +5.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 99-116 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks +5.5 @ New Orleans @ 7:05 ET - The Bucks fell just short of the cover last night in Houston. Though this is a back to back spot for Milwaukee it involves only a short trip from Houston to New Orleans, the Bucks had two days off before facing the Rockets, and Milwaukee is a stellar 9-2 ATS this season when playing the second game of a back to back. Also, the Bucks are 9-1 ATS in road games with a posted total between 205 and 209.5 the past three seasons combined. Milwaukee is 11-6 ATS this season in their games against teams with a losing record and the Bucks are also 4-1 ATS this season when they enter a game having played each of their three prior games on the road. The Bucks will be hungry after last night's loss and they have been playing quite well. They catch the Pelicans at an ideal time as New Orleans is off of back to back wins but has a big game on deck with a division rival, Houston, on deck. That makes this a nice flat spot for the Pelicans and I plan to take advantage. As a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points the past three seasons, New Orleans has gone 3-12 ATS. Also, in non-conference action the Pelicans have gone 4-10 ATS this season. Look for New Orleans to get caught looking ahead to Monday's divisional game as they overlook this Eastern Conference opponent. Grab the road dog value with the Bucks and the points! |
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01-23-16 | Maryland +3.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 65-74 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAAB Game #661 - *10* Top Play Maryland Terrapins +3.5 @ Michigan State @ 6:30 ET - Some will look at this game and say that Michigan State is in bounce back mode and they will bounce back due to the recent defeats and that the Spartans haven't looked this bad in a long time so coach Tom Izzo will have them ready to go and to get back on track. However, I see this game much differently and love the line value here with the road dog. There is tremendous pressure on the Spartans right now. Michigan State needs a win and they need it badly and this is putting a lot of stress on a team that hasn't exactly responded well to stress this season. Just look at all the tight losses the Spartans have had and you will see they don't do well in crunch time. That said, to be getting 3.5 points here with the better team and a team that is also seeking revenge is absolutely a huge value. Last year in the conference tourney the Terrapins lost to the Spartans and you can bet they had this rematch circled on their calendars. Maryland had won the two regular season meetings between the teams and that, of course, included a win at Michigan State so they certainly won't be intimidated by playing here on Saturday evening. The Terps look much improved since the last meeting between these teams while the Spartans continue to struggle and just haven't shown the same defensive skills and rebounding strength that prior Spartans teams have shown. That doesn't bode well for Michigan State getting by one of the top teams in the country Saturday evening. The past three seasons Maryland is 17-8 ATS in games with a posted total in a range of 140 to 149.5 points. The Terps are also 12-6 ATS in Saturday games the past three seasons. This season Maryland is 4-2 ATS in their games against teams with a winning record and I certainly expect them to be at their best in this huge Big 10 battle. The past three seasons Michigan State is 1-4 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. Also, the Spartans are 2-5 ATS in Big 10 games this season and 0-3 ATS when off of a loss to a conference foe. In other words, don't look for the bounce back here as the struggles for Sparty are likely to continue. Grab the generous points with the Terrapins! |
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01-23-16 | UCLA +8.5 v. Oregon | 72-86 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAAB Game #597 - *8* UCLA Bruins +8.5 @ Oregon @ 4 ET - Nice set up to back the big dog Bruins here. UCLA is off of a big win at Oregon State and scored very well for a 6th straight game. Even though this is a back to back road spot for the Bruins they had two days off between games which is always a plus and UCLA also showed a lot of resiliency in bouncing right back after a disappointing loss to their biggest rival, the USC Trojans back on the 13th. The Ducks don't have nearly the fresh legs that the Bruins do here and Oregon is off of a big home win against USC on Thursday. Today's game will mark the Ducks 2nd game in 3 days and I look for them to be a bit taxed here. Oregon is 7-16 ATS in January games the past three seasons combined. The Ducks, of course, are a solid team but the one type of team they have struggled against this season is those that can also put up big points. Just like Oregon, UCLA is a high-scoring team and the Ducks are 2-4 ATS this season against teams that average 77 points or more per game. UCLA is on a long-term 15-4 ATS run as a road dog of 6.5 to 9 points. Also, the Bruins are 19-10 ATS the past three seasons when coming off of a victory in a conference game. After knocking off the Beavers on Wednesday, look for UCLA to also get the cash against the Ducks Saturday. |
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01-23-16 | Michigan v. Nebraska OVER 140.5 | Top | 81-68 | Win | 100 | 6 h 53 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAAB Game #553 - *10* Top Play OVER 140.5 in Nebraska vs Michigan - Both these teams have been scoring like crazy and neither one has been showing a particular affinity for playing a lot of stifling defense either. That said, the way to go here is the over. The Cornhuskers are 11-3 to the over this season and the Wolverines are 12-4 to the over. Both Nebraska and Michigan are a solid 5-1 (83%) to the over this season in conference match-ups. The Huskers are off of a big upset win at Michigan State on Wednesday so I don't expect them to be too focused on defense here are teams are often a little flat in terms of defensive intensity when they are off of a huge upset victory like that. The Huskers have now won 4 straight games and have shot 50% or better from the field in all four games. Nebraska has averaged 81 points per game during this hot streak and I don't expect Michigan's defense, particularly on the road, to be successful in shutting them down. The Wolverines have failed to cover 3 of their past 4 games and a lot of that has had to do with playing lackluster D. Michigan has allowed about 48% from the field in their past four games and given up an average of 76 points per game during this stretch. However, like the Huskers, the Wolverines have been scoring well and, in fact, they have scored 70 points or more in TEN straight games. In other words this game should easily get past the 140 mark today. *OVER* |
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01-23-16 | Ball State +7 v. Eastern Michigan | 88-87 | Win | 100 | 3 h 24 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAAB Game #537 - *8* Ball State Cardinals +7 @ Eastern Michigan @ 11:30 AM ET - A lot of line value for the road dog in this one. Ball State has the better record on the season and the Cardinals have revenge from a home loss to Eastern Michigan in their most recent meeting which was last March. Of course significant home court weighting is being added to this line and yet the road team has won three of the last four meetings between these teams. Even if the Cards fall short of the outright win here, the generous points should be more than enough for the cover. Ball State enters this game off of a loss but it was to one of the top teams in the MAC - Kent State. Prior to that defeat the Cardinals had won 5 of their last 6 games and the only loss came by a slim six point margin. The Eagles enter this game having lost four of their past six games and that includes defeats in two of their last three home games. Eastern Michigan is not playing as well on defense as Ball State has been and I look for that to be a key difference maker here. Couple that with the value of the points and the Cardinals being hungry off of a loss plus playing with revenge and you have the makings of a tight game at Eastern Michigan early Saturday. Ball State is 4-2 ATS this season as an underdog. The Eagles are 0-4 ATS in Saturday games this season and also 0-4 ATS this season when they are off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. That makes this a 'double perfect' go against situation! Grab the points with Ball State. |
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01-22-16 | Bucks +3 v. Rockets | Top | 98-102 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks +3 @ Houston @ 8:05 ET - The Rockets have lost two straight games and they are currently mired in a 1-4 ATS slump. Houston also has a big game on deck with the in-state rival Dallas Mavericks and Dwight Howard is expected to miss tonight's game in hopes of healing up his ankle. The Rockets are dealing with some other injury issues as well and just because they lost to Detroit Wednesday it does not mean you should expect a bounce back here. Houston is actually an ugly 1-11 ATS this season when they are off of an upset loss as a favorite this season. The Rockets are also 4-12 ATS in non-conference action this season and the impact of facing an Eastern Conference foe is magnified in strength here due to the big divisional game on deck as noted above. As for the Bucks, they are well-rested here and they enter this game having won three straight games. Also, Milwaukee has covered 6 of their past 7 games. The Bucks are 18-11 ATS this season when facing teams that are allowing 99 points or more per game this season. Milwaukee has lost both match-ups with Houston each of the past two seasons and, with these four straight losses in this series, there is no doubt the Bucks will be focused on getting a revenge win tonight. Look for the Bucks, who have been playing solid defense while also shooting well, to continue their big surge Friday. |
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01-22-16 | Jazz -5.5 v. Nets | 108-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* Utah Jazz -5 or -5.5 @ Brooklyn @ 7:35 ET - A match-up of two struggling teams but the Nets are certainly in far worse shape than the Jazz. Utah comes into this game off of back to back losses. However, the Jazz are 33-17 (66%) ATS the past three seasons when they are off of a game where they allowed 105 points or more. The Nets are simply a huge mess and things have not improved even since they made the coaching change. Brooklyn is on a 1-9 (10%) run both straight-up and ATS. That makes me very comfortable in fading them tonight as they continue to not only lose but to get pounded! The Nets last ten games have all been decided by six points or more and most have been blowout losses by double digits margins of defeat. I look for another one of those tonight as the Jazz are hungry to get back on track and they'll leave it all on the floor tonight. That's because Utah's next game is scheduled at Washington Saturday but that game is likely to be postponed due to the expected blizzards conditions in DC. |
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01-22-16 | St. Peter's +7.5 v. Iona | Top | 58-64 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAAB *10* Top Play St. Peter's Peacocks +7.5 @ Iona @ 7 ET - Iona is a mess right now and I'll gladly challenge them to cover the inflated number here considering the circumstances. The Gaels 110-102 loss to Monmouth a week ago has Iona rattled. The Gaels lost to Rider as a four point favorite Sunday and that was the only loss they suffered. One of their top players, Jordan Washington, is still serving the final game of his two game suspension tonight. That resulted from his actions in the big game against Monmouth and, again, the entire Iona team seems to be a bit frazzled right now. St Peter's won the last match-up between these teams (last March) and the Peacocks also have covered each of the last two meetings at Iona. That said, St Peter's does bring confidence into this match-up. They won't be intimidated by Iona and that is even more true with the Gaels missing a key frontcourt player (Washington). St Peter's enters this game having won 5 of their last 7 games and the only two losses came by 3 points or less. The Peacocks have been playing better defense in comparison with Iona. St Peter's has held six of their past seven opponents to 37.3% or less from the field! Conversely, the Gaels are allowing an average of 90 points per game in their last three games! Iona is 0-4 ATS this season in games with a posted total in the 140s. St Peter's is 7-1 ATS as an underdog this season and the Peacocks are again undervalued here! Grab the points! |
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01-21-16 | Grizzlies -1.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 102-101 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 2 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Memphis Grizzlies -1.5 @ Denver @ 9:05 ET - In a home game with a posted total between 190 and 194.5 the Nuggets have gone 0-3 ATS this season and 0-6 ATS the past three seasons combined. That doesn't bode well for this match-up with Memphis. The Grizzlies are a master at slowing games down to the tempo they want. Memphis comes into this game having won 5 of their past 6 games and they've covered the spread in four of those five victories. Also, the Grizzlies have limited four consecutive opponents to 77 shots or less from the field. The Nuggets, even though they are at home, have been struggled no matter the venue. Denver has lost six of their past nine home games. On Thursday, Denver is facing a Grizzlies team that has beaten them three straight times by an average margin of 16 points per victory! Memphis enters this game off of a six game homestand and the Grizzlies are a perfect 4-0 straight-up and solid 3-1 ATS when they enter a game having played each of their three prior games at home. On deck for Memphis is a match-up with the hapless Timberwolves so there certainly is no lookahead here. Also,the Grizzlies have the rest edge on the Nuggets here as Memphis had two days off between games and they've gone 26-8 straight-up (and tonight's line is only -1.5) when they enter a game having had two days of rest between games. |
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01-21-16 | Kentucky -1.5 v. Arkansas | Top | 80-66 | Win | 100 | 21 h 27 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAAB Game #725 - *10* Kentucky Wildcats -1.5 @ Arkansas @ 7 ET - The Wildcats need to get back on track after some recent poor efforts. All the talk about how "down" Kentucky is has really led to some nice line value here with the Cats as now this line is well below where it would have been a few weeks ago. While the downturn in level of play recently for the Wildcats is certainly "some" cause for concern, the fact is that Kentucky has an incredible level of talent and they can turn things back on in a hurry. Look for them to be ready Thursday night as it's the perfect venue for them to right the ship. The Wildcats want to silence all the doubters and here they are taking on an Arkansas team known for it's tough venue and also known for having given the Cats some trouble in the past. In other words, there is no way that Kentucky will overlook the Razorbacks and I look for them to have a huge game at Arkansas Thursday night. The Wildcats have gone 7-1 straight-up (and this line is only -1.5) when they are off of a loss to a conference foe. With the Wildcats off of a loss against Auburn, the situation is perfect for backing Kentucky as they get back on track off of a rare defeat. The Cats have bounced back to win after each of their first three losses this season and I look for them to take that record to 4-0 tonight. The Razorbacks are 2-4 ATS this season in games with a posted total in a range of 150 to 159.5 and they will struggle to keep up with a Wildcats team that will have the pedal to the metal throughout this game Thursday. |
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01-20-16 | Pistons +3 v. Rockets | Top | 123-114 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Detroit Pistons +3 @ Houston @ 8:05 ET - Great spot for the Pistons. They catch the Rockets just getting back from a two game road trip out west that featured back to back games in LA on Sunday and Monday. Detroit is off of a home loss to the Bulls and the Pistons, as you would expect on their home floor, were favored in that game. The significance in that is we should expect a bounce back from Detroit in this game and the Pistons have bounced back in this situation all season long. Detroit is 7-1 SU and 7-1 ATS when they are off on upset loss as a favorite. The Pistons are also 6-1-1 ATS when off of a divisional game and 7-3 SU and 7-3 ATS when off of a game where they allowed 105 points or more. The Rockets are an ugly 4-11 ATS in non-conference games this season. Houston has failed to cover in 4 of their last 6 home games and the first game back after a west coast road trip always tends to be the toughest. Before the Bulls shot a ridiculous percentage from the field at Detroit Monday, the Pistons had held 6 of their 8 prior opponents to 95 points or less. Contrast this with a Rockets team that has given up 104.5 points per game in their last 6 home games. Grab the line value here with the highly motivated, dangerous road dog in this one. Houston struggled to stop the Clippers in LA on Monday and that turned into an overtime battle that further strengthens this situation for Detroit to hold the edge here. The Rockets are an ugly 7-16 ATS after allowing 105 points or more. Houston also is an ugly 9-14 ATS in home games this season. |
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01-20-16 | Indiana State +3 v. Southern Illinois | Top | 66-79 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAAB Game #543 - *10* Top Play Indiana State Sycamores +3 @ Southern Illinois @ 8 ET - The Salukis have been a surprise early this season but now we take advantage of the line value that has resulted from the early season success for Southern Illinois. The better team is a 3-point dog here and I see big value with the Sycamores in this spot. They are off of a loss at Wichita State that served as a bit of a wake up call and they can't wait to get back on the floor after that ugly loss on Sunday. Looking at the season stats you can see that Indiana State has been the much better team on defense in comparing with Southern Illinois - just look at FG % allowed - an edge of 41% compared to 44%. Also, the Sycamores come into this game having allowed 41.8% or less from the field in their last five games. Indiana State had covered 7 straight games before their loss to the Shockers and the Sycamores are again undervalued here. Conversely, the Salukis are over-valued due to their surprising early season results. They rely too heavily on their star player and that will catch up with them as they face tougher defenses in conference action - like they are facing tonight - that are fully focused on making sure they don't get beat by the one they know is the key weapon for the Salukis. Note that even though Southern Illinois has been winning that is creating a false sense of security because truly their defense has not been playing that well. Southern Illinois has allowed 46.6% or better from the field in 4 of their last 5 games. The only exception in the five game stretch was when they faced an awful Bradley team. In other words, look for the Salukis to be challenge by another solid team tonight and the defensive edge goes to the Sycamores in a large way in this match-up. Southern Illinois is off to a good start in conference action but they truly have taken advantage of facing the lower tier teams in the MVC (other than Wichita State who blasted them). With that said, there is now value created because this 16-3 Salukis team is not nearly as good as their record would lead you to believe and I look for the Sycamores to defeat them for a FIFTH straight time and improve to 11-2 ATS this season in games against teams with a winning record. |
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01-19-16 | Houston +13 v. SMU | Top | 73-77 | Win | 100 | 27 h 11 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAAB Game #749 - *10* Top Play Houston Cougars +13 @ SMU @ 9 ET Tuesday - The Mustangs Keith Frazier is now officially leaving the Mustangs but already, in the time since he's been out, his impact on some of the other key scorers for SMU has been evident. Their numbers are down and the Mustangs now enter this game off of an ATS cover that is helping to give us line value here. SMU won by 15 on the scoreboard at Tulane but the Mustangs had to pull away late in that game and it was not an impressive win as SMU was held to just 60 points in the game. Now, on Tuesday, the Mustangs take on a Houston defense that ranks nearly as highly as SMU's defense does. That said, this game is likely to be an all out war that truly could go either way and yet we're getting 13 points because SMU is off of another cover and remains undefeated on the season. Getting double digits with a 13-4 Cougars team that plays solid defense is a great line value. Everyone is gunning for the Mustangs right now and the Cougars have the talent level to get it done. Even in recent match-ups with SMU, Houston has been "right there" more often than not as four of the last five meetings have seen the Cougars either win the game outright or lose the game by 7 points or less. SMU continues to be overvalued at home and they are 1-5 ATS in home games so far this season. Houston is 5-2 ATS as a road dog between 12.5 and 15 points. The value here with the Cougars in this one should be evident from the opening tip as their tenacious defense and the Mustangs continued scoring struggles (without Frazier managed only 60 versus Tulane and 59 versus Cincinnati) are the perfect combo. |
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01-19-16 | Bucks +5.5 v. Heat | Top | 91-79 | Win | 100 | 26 h 47 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks +5.5 @ Miami @ 7:35 ET - This scheduling spot favors the Bucks in a big way as they had two days off prior to this game and Milwaukee has two days off after this game. Conversely, the Heat have yet to have two straight off days since the end of December. Whether it is the schedule or not that is causing it, the fact is that the Heat are wearing down. Miami has lost four of their last five games and the Heat have been held to 90 points or less in three of the five games. They now host a Bucks team heading the other direction as Milwaukee has won four of their past six games and the Bucks have covered five of those six games. The road has been kind to Bucks backers of late as Milwaukee has gotten the cash in 7 of their past 10 games away from home. While the Bucks next game is not until the 22nd and is against a non-conference foe, the Heat have a big game at Washington on deck tomorrow night. The Heat are 2-5 ATS against Central Division opponents this season and this scheduling situation is making it highly unlikely that they will be able to improve upon that tonight. Look for the Bucks recent surge to continue Tuesday and, in doing so, Milwaukee makes it five straight wins and ATS covers in their last five match-ups with Miami! |
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