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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-09-17 | Rockets +5.5 v. Spurs | Top | 107-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
Texas Insider - Rickenbach NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Houston Rockets (+) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 8 ET - The Rockets got their transition game going in Game 4 and they also got their three point shooting back on track. Both teams have each won on their opponents home court but the difference now is that the Spurs being without Tony Parker is absolutely a big deal. San Antonio managed to rise up in Game 3, their first game after he got hurt. But the Rockets then made the proper adjustments on how to attack the Spurs without Parker and, of course, Game 4 was a full display of just how successful those adjustments can be. Of course it's a bit of cat and mouse here as SA coach Gregg Popovich will most certainly have his team ready to go here and will make some adjustments after getting blown out in Game 4. However, one thing is for certain, Pop's ability to truly "replace" his floor leader Parker is just not there. This is a glaring hole for the Spurs and yet this line is set right near where it was in Games 1 and 2 here in San Antonio. How can that be? It's because the betting public likes to play the "zig zag" theory and many will be backing the Spurs here to bounce back off of the ugly Game 4 loss. The fact that the dynamics surrounding Game 5 are much bigger than anything a "zig zag" can properly address is why we're getting amazing line value with the Rockets here. I'll take it! Grab the points as Houston is 12-5 ATS as an underdog this season. By the way, the Spurs are only 4-6 ATS this season and 10-15 ATS the past 3 seasons combined when they are off of a loss by a double digit margin. San Antonio will certainly be looking to bounce back but I just don't see it sans Parker and with the Rockets fully prepared to maintain the momentum. Keep in mind they blasted the Spurs in SA in Game 1 to start this series. 10* HOUSTON ROCKETS |
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05-08-17 | Warriors v. Jazz +8.5 | Top | 121-95 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - NBA Monday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz (+) vs Golden State Warriors @ 9 ET - The Jazz are going to fight hard (just like the Raptors did yesterday) as they look to avoid the series sweep on their home floor. Even though Toronto did fall short yesterday, they got the cover for some and pushed for others. In this case Utah is being given an even bigger number in comparison with the Raptors and there is solid line value here with this hungry home dog. The Warriors managed to pull away very late in Game 3 but that has also created line value for Game 4 because this line is a bucket higher even though the Jazz were "right there" with Golden State in the fourth quarter before a late run for the Warriors sealed Utah's fate. The Jazz are 39-16 ATS the last 3 seasons when playing with home loss revenge and they are still 7-3 ATS in all playoff games this season. Also, Utah is 8-4 ATS (and SU!) when off of a loss by a double digit margin this season. The Jazz are definitely going to go hard tonight and look to notch that highly sought home win to extend this series and avoid the sweep. Even with Saturday's win, Golden State is only 3-6 ATS this season in games against teams that allow an average of 98 points or less per game. The Warriors very well could stamp their ticket to the Western Conference finals tonight but the points are simply too much here as I anticipate this one going to the final horn. 10* UTAH JAZZ |
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05-07-17 | Spurs v. Rockets -5.5 | Top | 104-125 | Win | 100 | 23 h 20 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NBA Sunday 10* Top Play Houston Rockets (-) vs San Antonio Spurs @ 9 ET - Surprisingly the Spurs were able to get an upset win on the road at Houston in Game 3 even without Tony Parker and even after a huge fourth quarter in Game 2 had propelled them to a massive home court win. Sometimes teams are able to rise up in the first game after a star goes down as everyone is so highly motivated to perform huge and make up for the star's absence. However, those teams then often fall flat in the 2nd game. That is not the only thing going in our favor here however as the other big key is the Rockets are still at home and they are coming off of a dreadful shooting performance and a 2nd straight blowout loss. Sometime a good team will lose bad once but when they lose bad in back to back games there is no doubt about the effort their going to bring in Game 3 of such a scenario. Houston is 9-3 ATS this season when playing with home loss revenge. The Rockets are also 14-4 SU (and 12-6 ATS) when off of an upset loss as a favorite. Harden needs some help from his teammates after he was the only big scorer for the Rockets in Game 3. Similar to how others stepped up for the Spurs in the first game without Parker, look for others to step up for the Rockets to help provide more balanced scoring in a must win scenario in Game 4. Houston can ill afford to go back to SA down 3-1 in this series. Keep in mind, this is not the Spurs of the "Dynasty Years" and I look for San Antonio to drop to 4-8 ATS their last 12 games when leading in a playoff series. 10* HOUSTON |
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05-07-17 | Celtics +5 v. Wizards | 102-121 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 51 m | Show | |
TNT Early Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Sunday 8* Boston Celtics (+) @ Washington Wizards @ 6:30 ET - After making only 35% of their shots and getting thoroughly blown out in Game 3 (thanks to a 22-0 1st quarter run for the Wizards), look for the Celtics to respond in a big way here. They just couldn't make any shots Thursday but Boston is 9-3 SU and ATS this season when off of a loss by 10 points or more. Look for Isaiah Thomas to get back on track after a very tough performance for him in Game 3. He's been so hot in the post-season and he'll be ready to be aggressive again as the Celtics make some adjustments to counteract what the Wizards were successful in putting together in Thursday's win. I am well aware of Washington's 4-0 home record so far in this post-season but the Wizards don't exactly have a storied playoff history in 2nd round playoff games. Their long-term runs included 5-14 SU in 2nd round playoff games (including 3-6 in recent seasons) and 8-17 SU when trailing in a playoff series. The Celtics are the better team defensively and they'll bounce back in Game 4. Even with that Game 3 loss, Boston is still 31-15 SU the last 3 seasons combined in games against teams that allow 106 points or more per game. The physicality is on the increase in this series and the Celtics will come out strong and have gone 21-12 SU this season when playing with revenge. 8* BOSTON |
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05-07-17 | Cavs v. Raptors +7 | 109-102 | Push | 0 | 19 h 40 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Sunday 8* Toronto Raptors (+) vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 3:30 ET - With professional pride on the line, the Raptors are going to do everything in their power to avoid the sweep and get a W Sunday. The beauty of this situation though is in terms of the line value. The Raptors don't have to get an outright win for us to get the cash and the fact is that this line is truly inflated as it has moved as high as +7 as of Saturday evening. Keep in mind the Raptors were only down 2 heading to the 4th quarter of Game 3 on Friday. So how in the world did Toronto end up losing that game by 21 points? The explanation is really quite simple and it also is a reason that we're getting tremendous line value in Game 4 because the unusual results are highly unlikely to be repeated. The Raptors Tucker made 1 of his 2 three pointers and the rest of the team was 1 of 16 from beyond the arc. For the Cavs, Irving made only 1 of 5 from beyond the arc but the rest of the team was an absolutely insane 12 of 18 from three point land. When a team gets outscored by 33 points from beyond the arc, they are going to have trouble to say the least! Those ridiculous results are leading to big-time line value here. I'll take it! The Cavaliers have covered just 3 of 10 Sunday games this season and this is a rather early start. The Raptors are 30-15 SU at home this season and I expect them to respond here even if Lowry is out again. 8* TORONTO |
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05-06-17 | Warriors v. Jazz +5.5 | Top | 102-91 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 25 m | Show |
ABC Blowout ATS Rout - Rickenbach NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz (+) vs Golden State Warriors @ 8:30 ET - The Jazz went 29-12 at home in the regular season. Though they're down 0-2 in this series they certainly showed plenty of fight at Golden State and did get the cover in each game. Some of the adjustments that Utah made in the 2nd half of that game certainly paid off and the Jazz were able to close within as close as 6 in the fourth quarter. Grabbing some momentum from those adjustments as well as the fact that they now get a game on their home floor, I would not be surprised to see Utah get the outright upset here but certainly there is value with the generous points being offered. Even though he's listed as probable, Draymond Green's knee injury is something that the Warriors can afford to be careful with and rest him some as they are working toward a long playoff march. As for the Jazz, there is no time to waste and, though George Hill is questionable for this game, I would be surprised if he is not back out there running the offense for Utah in this one and that will be a big plus. Either way, I am grabbing the home dog here. The Jazz are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games versus the Warriors. Also, Utah is 8-3 ATS (and SU!) this season when off of a loss by a margin of 10 points or more. Tonight I look for the Jazz to improve to an incredible 8-2 ATS in this post-season. Look for the Warriors to drop to 2-7 ATS this season in games played against teams that allow an average of 98 points or less per game. 10* UTAH JAZZ plus the points Saturday evening. |
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05-05-17 | Spurs v. Rockets -4.5 | Top | 103-92 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 26 m | Show |
Western Conf Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA 10* Top Play Houston Rockets (-) vs San Antonio Spurs @ 9:30 ET - After getting embarrassed in the 4th quarter at San Antonio Wednesday night, the Rockets will be ready to respond here. The Spurs found that their small ball lineup worked well even without Tony Parker on the floor after he got hurt early in the 4th quarter. Even though Parker is now out for the post-season, the Spurs still have others that can step in and maintain the small ball attack in Game 3. However, what is unlikely to happen is for the Spurs to again shoot 54.5% from the field. That said, the Spurs could be in trouble willing to play a game where the winning team is in the 120s. The fact is that even though this series is 1-1, the way it's being played thusfar certainly favors the Rockets. Houston loves to get involved in high-scoring shootouts and they'll hold the upper hand in this one at home. The Rockets had won 6 of 7 before the loss Wednesday. The Spurs barely got by a Memphis team that was without Tony Allen in round one and then San Antonio got pounded in Game 1 of this series before responding in Game 2. One game certainly does not sure all that ailed the Spurs and there will be points in this game where they'll certainly miss the veteran leadership of their floor general, Tony Parker. The Spurs were on a 5-8 ATS run before the big win in Game 2. The Rockets are 25-7 SU (and 21-11 ATS) this season when off of a game where they allowed 115 points or more. Bounce back time for the Rockets here. 10* HOUSTON |
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05-05-17 | Cavs v. Raptors +3 | 115-94 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 57 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Friday 8* Toronto Raptors (+) vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7 ET - After getting embarrassed on the road in each of the first two games in this series the Raptors respond big here. Toronto has won 8 of its past 10 home games. The Cavaliers aren't going to be able to maintain the ridiculously high clip at which they hit three pointers in the first two games of this series now that the Cavs are on the road. Late in the season Cleveland had some very tough shooting nights from beyond the arc when on the road. The Cavaliers are 6-0 in the playoffs but only 2 of those wins came on the road. Also, the Cavs went only 4-9 SU on the road in their last 13 regular season games away from home. Look for Cleveland to fall to 18-26 ATS in road games this season as the Raptors respond large here. Toronto has only had one home game since the 18th. The 18th was a 6 point win over the Bucks and the the Raptors destroyed Milwaukee at the Air Canada Centre on the 24th by 25 points. In other words, Toronto is thrilled to be back home and will make the most of this opportunity with LeBron James and company in town. In last year's post-season series between these teams the home team won each of the first 5 games before the Cavs then blew out the Raptors for the series-clinching Game 6 victory. The Raptors haven't forgotten that defeat and, for the 8th time in the last 9 post-season games between these foes, I look for the home team to get the job done. 8* TORONTO |
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05-04-17 | Jazz v. Warriors OVER 204 | Top | 104-115 | Win | 100 | 24 h 47 m | Show |
Total Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Golden State Warriors vs Utah Jazz @ 10:30 ET - The first game in this series stayed under the total but not by much and that was with the teams combining to make only 16 of 58 three pointers! In other words, if just one of the teams would have had a "normal" night from three point range, there is no way the game would have failed to go over the total. The 106 points scored by the Warriors marked just the 2nd time in their last 11 games that Golden State has been held under 109 points. In fact, in the other 9 games the Warriors averaged 121 points per game. No matter how much the Jazz try to slow them down, particularly tough to do in Oakland, the Warriors are going to get their points. That said, with the downward adjustment on this line and the fact that one (if not both) of the teams is likely to shoot better from three point land means there is exceptional line value here. The over was 7-3 in the Warriors last 10 games prior to Game 1 of this series staying under the total. The over is 4-1 the last 5 times the Jazz have been off of a game where they were held to 95 points or less. Utah averaged 105.2 points per game in those 5 games and I look for them to push hard in this game but once again, the Warriors offensive machine isn't going to be stopped and that should lead to a very high-scoring Game Two. 10* Top Play OVER the total in Golden State |
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05-04-17 | Celtics +5.5 v. Wizards | 89-116 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 38 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Thursday 8* Boston Celtics (+) @ Washington Wizards @ 8 ET - Once again fading what is likely to be public perception here. Most everyone is likely to load up on Washington because they are down 2 games to 0 and now back home and basically in 'must win' mode. Of course we all know that the pressure can actually be nearly insurmountable when a team truly 'must win' and I don't expect the Wizards to react well here. They never should have lost Game 2 but they blew a big early lead and then lost ugly in OT. That is a tough loss to bounce back from and Washington doesn't exactly have a good pedigree of recent success. The Wizards are 2-6 in 2nd round playoff games in recent seasons and 4-14 long-term! As for the Celtics, they simply seem to be riding high no matter the scenario they are faced with and are already 6-2 (SU and ATS) in this post-season despite the tough times Isaiah Thomas has dealt with because of his sister's passing. The Wizards are simply an awful team on defense and this includes being bad at defending the 3-point ball. They have allowed 49.4% or more from the field in 9 of their last 18 games. It is truly no wonder that Washington is on a 6-10 ATS run. As for the Celtics, since dropping the first two games to the Bulls they've responded with a 6-0 SU and ATS run! Boston is 26-16 ATS on the road this season. Versus team that average 106 points or more per game, the Wizards have a history of having trouble. They've gone 28-59 SU and 34-51 ATS in those games. More of the same here as the Wizards deficiencies on the defensive end continue to be an issue. 8* BOSTON |
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05-03-17 | Rockets +5.5 v. Spurs | Top | 96-121 | Loss | -107 | 26 h 23 m | Show |
TNT Blowout ATS Rout - Rickenbach NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Houston Rockets (+) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 9:35 ET - Again, the "zig zag" theory is in effect here and yet I'll gladly be a contrarian and step in on the other side of it. Many will be looking to back the Spurs after the ugly loss in Game One. However, I rode the Rockets to victory there and, as I mentioned in my write-up for Monday's game, San Antonio is just not the team they use to be. I firmly believe that had the Grizzlies had Tony Allen available for that first round series, the Spurs would not have even got past Memphis! Now the Spurs have quickly found out they have their hands full with this uber-talented scoring machine filled with lethal three point shooters. The Rockets simply are too much for the Spurs and, though San Antonio will surely make adjustments and will look to respond here on their home floor, that still is no guarantee of victory and certainly no guarantee of a cover. Let's face it, the Rockets are better than they use to be, and the Spurs are just not the same team they were a few short years ago. Kawhi Leonard is an amazing player for San Antonio but just look at the production the Spurs have gotten from the key that is supposed to be their 2nd best player, LaMarcus Aldridge. He hasn't scored more than 20 points in a game since March 23rd and had a very poor Game One performance. The Rockets are relishing the underdog role they are in for this series and they are 12-4 ATS an underdog this season. Houston is also 6-2 SU in recent seasons when leading in a playoff series. The Spurs are on a 2-5 (SU and ATS) run in 2nd round playoff games. After a loss by 10 points or more San Antonio went just 3-6 ATS this season. After allowing 115 points or more the last 3 seasons combined the Spurs are only 4-6 SU! They aren't necessarily going to bounce back here like many expect them to. The last 5 games between the Rockets and Spurs have featured only one Spurs win by more than 2 points and that one came by just 6. I'll take the points with a team that gives SA some major "match-up issues". 10* HOUSTONÂ |
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05-03-17 | Raptors v. Cavs -7 | 103-125 | Win | 100 | 24 h 36 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Wednesday 8* Cleveland Cavaliers (-) vs Toronto Raptors @ 7:05 ET - As usual the "zig zag" theory will be played here by most and, as a result, many will go running to the Raptors and looking for them to bounce back here. The problem with that theory? Toronto is just not that at the same level that this Cavaliers team is and, the last time I checked, this game is still being played at Cleveland. In other words, it's a tough spot for the Raptors to bounce back considering they aren't playing the Bucks anymore. These are the defending champs and Toronto put just enough of a scare into Cleveland (with some big scoring runs in Game One) that there is no way the Cavs aren't going to keep the pedal to the metal tonight. Overall, the Cavaliers had huge leads multiple times in the win on Monday and ultimately settled for an 11 point win and I expect another double digit win here. Toronto is 4-7 ATS when trailing in a playoff series. Overall, after getting blown out in Game One, the Raptors are 10-21 ATS in all playoff games. Cleveland is an incredible 18-3 SU when leading in a playoff series and taking a look at the Cavaliers last 25 SU wins they have covered 20 of them! That's an 80% ATS clip in Cavs victories dating back to late January. The Raptors are an insane 2-28 ATS in their last 30 losses so, as you can see, when Toronto loses SU they tend to lose ATS as well! In other words, unless you think the Raptors are winning this outright, better not be backing them and I'll back a Cavs team that is clicking on all cylinders again and has gone 17-2 SU against Atlantic Division opponents this season. 8* CLEVELAND |
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05-02-17 | Jazz +13 v. Warriors | Top | 94-106 | Win | 100 | 33 h 33 m | Show |
Top Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 10:30 ET - The Warriors are, of course, the superior team. But that doesn't mean they're going to crush the Jazz in Game One. After having more than a week off there is just no way that Golden State is going to be clicking on all cylinders here in Game One on Tuesday night. At the same time, the Jazz are riding the momentum of their series win over the Clippers where they got the big Game 7 victory on the road on Tuesday. In fact, that was the 8th time in the last 9 Utah games that the road team has gotten the cash. The road team has also been a big money winner in Golden State's recent games with the away team getting the cash in 9 of their last 13 games. Look for the fact that the Jazz have been playing consistently while the Warriors are off of a long layoff to be a huge difference maker here. Also, Golden State is only 2-4 ATS this season when facing a team that allows 98 points or less per game and the Utah D is rock solid. I look for the Jazz to improve to 6-2 ATS in the post-season with this one decided by single digits as they keep this one much closer than many people are expecting. The Warriors rely so heavily on their outside shooting and I just don't see them being strong in that department after the long lay-off. 10* UTAH JAZZ |
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05-02-17 | Wizards v. Celtics OVER 218 | 119-129 | Win | 100 | 30 h 56 m | Show | |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Tuesday 8* OVER the  total in Boston Celtics vs Washington Wizards @ 8 ET - The quick reaction here in the "zig zag" theory that many bettors employ in the NBA playoffs would be to back the under after all the hot shooting that we saw in Game 1 of this series sent the Sunday game flying over the total. However, the Wizards have now scored 111 points in back to back games and they've allowed 111 points or more in 3 of their last 5 games. Washington is simply not known for playing solid defense but they can put up big points in a hurry when they're hot and, right now, they've been feeling it as they continue to ride the momentum of three straight solid performances on the offensive end. The Wizards won the final two games of their series with Atlanta thanks to big offensive production and then had a huge 1st half against the Celtics before their shooting cooled off in the 3rd quarter. Boston has won 8 of their last 10 games and averaged 111.4 points per game in the 8 wins. The over is 6-0 in Celtics Tuesday games and the over is 7-2 in Wizards Tuesday games. Versus teams that average 106 points or more per game Washington is on a 12-3 run to the over. Overall, the Wizards road games are 29-16 to the over this season. There have been only 3 unders in the Celtics last 12 home games and they'll be pushing hard to get the 2-0 series lead here and they certainly showed in game one that they are not afraid to push the pace with the Wizards. Keep in mind Boston scored 123 points Sunday even though the Celtics didn't score a field goal for the first 6 minutes of the game. 8* OVER the total in Boston |
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05-01-17 | Rockets +6 v. Spurs | Top | 126-99 | Win | 100 | 16 h 33 m | Show |
TNT Blowout ATS Rout - Rickenbach NBA Monday 10* Top Play Houston Rockets (+) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 9:35 ET - The Spurs barely got by a Memphis team that was without their top defender Tony Allen. My strong opinion is that the Spurs would not have advanced if Allen had not been hurt for the Grizzlies. Memphis played them tough in the regular season and then gave them hell in the post-season even without Allen! I have said it before and I'll say it again, because I reside in the San Antonio area and I follow this team closely. The Spurs are not what they use to be. Certainly they are still a talented, solid team that is well coached but I don't believe they have what it takes to go far in the post-season. Now the Spurs go from facing a short-handed Grizzlies team that barely got into the playoffs to facing one of the best in the west as they host the Rockets. The road team won 3 of the 4 meetings straight-up in the regular season and the road team did go a perfect 4-0 ATS in the season series! One meeting was decided by 6 points and the other three were each decided by only 2 points! You can see why I like having the points in this one and I also like the fact that the Spurs lost 4-2 in their most recent trip to the 2nd round and they also went just 2-4 ATS in that series. With Tim Duncan retired and Manu Giinobili no longer the X factor he once was, too much is expected of Kawhi Leonard. The Rockets weaponry will prove to be too much (at least in Game 1) and I'll gladly fade the line move as the betting markets have pushed this line higher! The Rockets won their most recent 2nd round playoff series, are 4-1 (SU and ATS) when playing with 3 or more days of rest between games and I look for them to improve to a fantastic 13-4 ATS as an underdog this season as they continue to thrive in that role! 10* HOUSTON |
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05-01-17 | Raptors v. Cavs -6.5 | 105-116 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Monday 8* Cleveland Cavaliers (-) vs Toronto Raptors @ 7:05 ET - Sometimes too much rest can lead to rust. Will that be that the case for the veteran Cavaliers here? I don't think so! The defending NBA champs are certainly accustomed to all sorts of scenarios and how to handle them. You don't become the champions of the league if you don't have the ability to adjust and to adapt. That said, the extra rest won't be rust for the Cavs. Instead, look for their fresh legs to have benefited greatly from the time off. The past 3 seasons combined the Cavaliers have gone 14-4 SU (and 11-7 ATS) when playing with 3 or more days of rest between games. Also, Cleveland knocked Toronto out of the post-season last year and all 4 Cavs wins came by at least 19 points per game! In fact, the Cavaliers average margin of victory in that series was 28.5 points per win! Cleveland will want to set the tone early in this series and that means a very aggressive and relentless approach in Game One and I see them winning this one by double digits to make a statement. Toronto got by the Bucks in round one but Milwaukee was lacking in playoff experience. In round two the Raptors get a reality check about the caliber of opponents they're really supposed to face in the playoffs and I expect it to take Toronto so some time to adjust going from facing a team that had a losing record in the regular season to facing one of the elite teams in the league. With the Cavs rested and raring to go, look for the Raptors to drop to 10-21 ATS in playoff games the past 3 seasons combined. 8* CLEVELAND |
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04-30-17 | Jazz v. Clippers OVER 190.5 | Top | 104-91 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Clippers vs Utah Jazz @ 3:30 ET - The 3 games played in Los Angeles in this series have all stayed under the total and, overall, there have been back to back unders in this series as both Games 5 and 6 stayed under the total. That is noteworthy because, in terms of the odds of a 3rd straight under occurring in this series, the Jazz when off of back to back unders have not had a 3rd straight under the last 6 weeks! The Clippers have not recorded 3 straight unders in their games since prior to the All Star break! The games in this series have been tight ballgames with the 6 games all decided by single digits and the average margin of victory being 5 points. The key with that is that another close game is likely in Game 7 and that likely will lead to fouling and trips to the free throw line late in the game as each team knows "there is no tomorrow". Whoever is down is going to be willing to foul even if down 8 or 10 points with only a minute to go. Look for plenty of late "scramble points" in the final sequences of this one but, the fact is, those points may not even be needed here. The Jazz have averaged 100 points per game in the last 4 games in this series and the Clippers are going to grab the momentum from staving off elimination in Game 6 as they now enjoy their home floor in Game 7. That said, don't be surprised if both teams get to triple digits in this one! The Jazz allowed the Clippers to connect on 49.4% of their shots from the field in Game 6. The last 3 times the Jazz have allowed a team to hit 45.4% or better from the field the over is a perfect 3-0 in their next game. 10* OVER the total in Los Angeles Clippers |
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04-30-17 | Wizards +4.5 v. Celtics | 111-123 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 49 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Sunday 8* Washington Wizards (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 1:05 ET - Washington's first round opponent was a tough Atlanta team. Boston's first round opponent was a Chicago team that had the Celtics in an 0-2 hole (at home no less!) before the Bulls lost Rajon Rondo to injury for the series. Chicago's loss of a key contributor ended up being the key to Boston winning 4 straight games. The point is that I am more impressed with how the Wizards got here in comparison with how the Celtics got here. The road team got the cover in 5 of the 6 first round games in the Boston series and in each of the last two games in the Washington series. Look for those trends to continue here as the Celtics are 3-15 ATS this season when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more. The Wizards are 8-3 ATS when off of an upset win as an underdog. 8* WASHINGTON |
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04-28-17 | Celtics v. Bulls +2.5 | Top | 105-83 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
Playoff Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Friday 10* Top Play Chicago Bulls (+) vs Boston Celtics @ 8:05 ET - The Bulls lost the turnover battle big in Wednesday's Game 5 and that certainly was a factor in them ending up on the wrong end of a 11-point game. Chicago knocked down 50% of their shots but they could not overcome the turnover differential and they'll need to play a much cleaner game tonight. With the Celtics not shooting well - 19 off 77 from three point land the last 2 games - they are fortunate to still be up in this series. The poor shooting catches up with Boston here. The Bulls will go "all out" at home in hopes of forcing a Game 7 and Chicago plays solid defense when fully focused. Full focus will certainly be at the forefront for the Bulls in this one and they are 7-2 SU and ATS this season (and 16-5 ATS and 15-6 SU the last 3 seasons combined) when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3 games or more. The Celtics are a horrible 2-15 ATS this season when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more. Also, Boston is 6-11 ATS this season when off of a win by a double digit margin. The Bulls have shot well in each of their last two road games with the Celtics but, surprisingly shot poorly in the 2 home games in this series. That has led to line value here as the Bulls are actually a home dog now in this one. Even with Rajon Rondo still out, the Bulls have more than enough weapons to force a Game 7 with a big home W tonight. 10* CHICAGO BULLS |
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04-28-17 | Wizards v. Hawks -3 | 115-99 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 52 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Friday 8* Atlanta Hawks (-) vs Washington Wizards @ 7:35 ET - The home team has won all 5 games in this series and I see no reason for that trend to stop here. The Hawks have actually out-rebounded the Wizards in 4 of the 5 games in this series. The only reason Atlanta lost Game 5 on the road at Washington was because the Hawks shot only 41% from the field. The Hawks have shot 48.3% in their last 5 home games and outscored by double digits in each game in Atlanta while losing only by single digits in each of their losses at Washington. In many respects, the Hawks have deserved a better fate than being down 3-2 in this series but, in any event, that is helping to keep this line lower than it should be and I look for Atlanta to roll at home and force a Game 7. The Hawks are on a 9-4 ATS run while the Wizards have slumped to a 5-8 ATS mark their last 13 games. Washington is 11-23 SU the last 34 times they've been an underdog and I look for another loss in that role here. With the low number on the Hawks, that SU Wizards loss should also equate to a solid ATS cover for the home team. 8* ATLANTA |
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04-27-17 | Spurs v. Grizzlies +4 | Top | 103-96 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 6 m | Show |
TNT Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Memphis Grizzlies (+) vs San Antonio Spurs @ 9:35 ET - I lost a tough one Tuesday when the Spurs pulled away late to get the cover as a double digit fave over the Grizzlies in Game 5 of this series. However, the Spurs finally got some points from Manu Ginobili and they shot a ridiculous 14 of 28 from three point land. Memphis responded at home in both Games 3 and 4 after losing Games 1 and 2 and I expect the Grizzlies to again come up big on their home floor in Game 6 after coming up short in Game 5. Each of the last 3 games in this series have gone over the total and the Grizzles are 19-10 SU (and 18-11 ATS) the last 3 seasons combined when they enter a game on an "over streak" of 3 games or more. The Spurs are only 4-6 SU (and 3-7 ATS) the last 3 seasons combined when they are leading in a playoff series. Spurs had lost 5 of their last 7 (SU and ATS) before getting the big win in Game 5 that was largely attributable to red hot three point shooting. The odds of that continuing here just are not that good and the Grizzlies have been fired up ever since their head coach's tirade about the officiating after Game 2. There is no way that Memphis is going to stop fighting in Game 6 as it's "win or the season is over" for the Grizzlies. Dating back to the regular season and including this series so far, the home team has a perfect 7-0 ATS mark in the Spurs last 7 games. Look for more of the same Thursday as San Antonio has not had a hot shooting night on the road since they shot 48% from the field at Minnesota over a month ago! The Grizzlies "D up" hard in this one. 10* MEMPHIS |
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04-27-17 | Raptors +1.5 v. Bucks | 92-89 | Win | 100 | 20 h 35 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Thursday 8* Toronto Raptors (+) @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 7:05 ET - The Raptors are fired up about closing out a playoff series in Game 6. They're well aware of their poor history in this situation as they are 0-7 SU (and 1-6 ATS) when leading in a playoff series. Toronto is sick of hearing about that and doesn't want to let Milwaukee extend this to a 7th game. Luckily for the Raptors, this is the right team for Toronto to face to have a great shot at erasing the bitter taste of past defeats. The Bucks have lost 7 straight playoff series and the last 6 all have come in the first round with the final defeat in each of the last two appearances coming in a Game 6. That said, the Bucks aren't exactly loaded with post-season experience to fall back on. Look for the Raptors to improve to 12-3 SU (and 10-5 ATS) this season when playing with two days of rest. Also, Toronto is 19-8 SU (and 17-10 ATS) when off of a win by a double digit margin. The Bucks have been out-rebounded in this series and have now lost 3 of the last 4 games. Their only two wins came when the Raptors were held to 36% or less from the field. How likely is that here? Not too likely! The Raptors were held to 36% or less from the field 3 times in their 82 regular season games. Note also that the Bucks Khris Middleton was ill Wednesday and missed practice. If he's not 100% this further weakens a Milwaukee team that has been outscored by 36 points in the last two games! 8* TORONTO |
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04-26-17 | Bulls +8 v. Celtics | Top | 97-108 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 21 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Chicago Bulls (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 8:30 ET - The Bulls aren't done yet. I know they just lost two straight at home to the Celtics and are still trying to adjust without Rajon Rondo, but the fact is Chicago won both games at Boston to open up this series. Additionally, the Bulls started out dominating the boards in this series and that domination has continued throughout. With just slightly better shooting, the Bulls just aren't going to lose this game by double digits. That said, there is tremendous line value with  the big number posted on this game. Keep in mind, Boston's Sunday win in Game 4 of this series was the 1st cover in the last 4 times the Celtics were off of a game where they allowed 100 points or less. I look for the Bulls to respond in a big way here after scoring under 100 in back to back home games. Look for Boston to drop to 1-4 ATS the last 5 times they've been off of a game where they held their team under the century mark. The Celtics are an ugly 4-10 ATS this season when playing with 2 days of rest between games. The Bulls are a fantastic 8-4 ATS this season when playing with 2 days of rest between games. Look for the Celtics to drop to 17-27 ATS in home games this season while the Bulls improve to 29-19 ATS as an underdog this season. Big dog value being offered here as the Bulls are off of back to back losses and haven't lost three straight games since early March. They'll make some adjustments here sans Rondo. 10* CHICAGO |
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04-26-17 | Hawks +5.5 v. Wizards | 99-103 | Win | 100 | 21 h 59 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Wednesday 8* Atlanta Hawks (+) @ Washington Wizards @ 6 ET - The home team has won and covered all 4 games of this series but there is a reason the odds makers are holding this number right in line with where it was in the first two meetings in this series in Washington. The fact is that the home dominance in this series is likely to be busted in Game 5. The Hawks have now won the battle of the boards in 3 of the 4 games and they've also cut down on the turnover issues that plagued them earlier in this series. Atlanta is 81-58 ATS in their games against teams with a winning record and, overall, the Hawks come into this game having covered 8 of their last 12. The Wizards are on a 10-17 ATS run entering this game and I believe the fact that this line opened up right in line with Games 1 and 2 of this series is an open invitation to take Washington. We all know what happens when something looks too good to be true...it usually is and I see the Hawks turning this series on its ear with a big upset win on the road but I'll grab the points here just in case. 8* ATLANTA |
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04-25-17 | Grizzlies +10 v. Spurs | Top | 103-116 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 7 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Memphis Grizzlies (+) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 9 ET - The Spurs are getting heavily played again as this line is already up to double digits. Do you remember the Big 3 of the Spurs? Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, and Tony Parker. Why do I mention this? Duncan is now retired. Ginobili is 0 for 15 in the series and still hasn't scored a single point. As for Parker, he did bounce back to play his best game of the series in Game 4 but he was held scoreless in Game 3 and his assists are way down in the post-season. The reason I mention all this is because the Spurs true star now (and arguably their only star), Kawhi Leonard scored 43 points in Game 4 and, guess what, San Antonio still lost! This is bad news for the Spurs because they just aren't the team they use to be. I know they had a great regular season but it's playoff time and for a team like Memphis (without the defender - Tony Allen - that was going to be key in slowing down Leonard) to be as tough on SA as they have been, it shows just how far the Spurs have fallen. Making the situation even worse for San Antonio is that they've now given Memphis the confidence that comes with back to back wins. Ever since the Memphis coach went off on all the officials after Game 2 you've seen a different Grizzlies team and they won't stop on Tuesday night. Memphis is now 9-4 SU and ATS in games against teams that allow 98 points or less on the season. Also, the Grizzlies thrive on the underdog role and building momentum from it. They are 12-8 ATS (and 14-6 SU!) when off of an upset win as an underdog this season! The Spurs are just 4-9 ATS this season when playing with 2 days of rest between games and though they should get the home win tonight it's very likely to be an all out war decided by single digits. That said, grab the big points in this one. 10* MEMPHIS |
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04-25-17 | Thunder +7.5 v. Rockets | 99-105 | Win | 100 | 22 h 10 m | Show | |
TNT Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Tuesday 8* Oklahoma City Thunder (+) @ Houston Rockets @ 8 ET - The Rockets blew out the Thunder by 31 points in Game 1 of this series. Since then, every single game has been tight with none of the last 3 games being decided by more than 4 points. I certainly don't see that changing here in what is a "win or go home for the summer" game for Oklahoma City. As strong as Houston is, the fact is that the Thunder (ever since the game 1 "reality check") have put up quite a fight in this series and I certainly don't see that stopping here! OKC shot better from the field than the Rockets in Games 3 and 4 and they've shot better from three point land in 3 of the 4 games in this series. Oklahoma City has proven to be that they're not going to go away quietly and these points are simply too much for Tuesday's Game 5. The Rockets were on a 1-10 ATS skid before covering both games at Oklahoma City. The Thunder are 7-2 ATS when playing with home loss revenge this season and they'll be looking to bounce back after coming up just short in Game 4. Also, the Rockets are 2-4 ATS this season (and 14-23 ATS the L3 seasons) when off of an upset win as an underdog. If Nene Hilario hadn't gone 12 for 12 from the field the Rockets would not have won that Game 4 and I look for them to struggle to put away this resilient Thunder team Tuesday as Russell Westbrook does everything he can to send this series back to OKC. 8* OKLAHOMA CITY |
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04-24-17 | Wizards v. Hawks -130 | Top | 101-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
TNT Blowout ATS Rout - Rickenbach NBA Monday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks (-) vs Washington Wizards @ 8 ET - After opening up at a -3 this line has come down down to a -2 and also the money line is even an option here with that price dropping as low as a -130 in some spot as of early gameday morning. The fact is that Atlanta's Game 3 domination was no fluke and I'll gladly grab them again here. The Hawks only made 59% of their free throws in Saturday's win. In other words, had they shot a more "normal" free throw percentage the blowout would have been even worse. They won the battle of the boards and have dominated the glass overall in this series. Also, Atlanta finally reversed the turnover battle and got the better of the Wizards in that department. This comes as no surprise as Washington is a different team when on the road. The Wizards are now 4-8 SU their last 12 road games - a span of 6 weeks. Even though many will be looking for a bounce back from Washington off of a bad loss, they're actually only 21-28 SU when off of a loss by double digits the past 3 seasons combined. Also, this season when the Wizards are an underdog, they've only gone 11-22 SU! Atlanta normally does a good job of maintaining the momentum off of a big win as they're 53-29 SU the last 3 seasons combined when off of a win by a double digit margin. Also, at home the Hawks are on a 94-43 SU run the last 3 seasons combined. Also, with Atlanta's win in Game 3, they've now won 5 straight home games and haven't tasted defeat on their own floor in the past 4 weeks. I don't see that changing here. 10* ATLANTA |
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04-24-17 | Bucks +6 v. Raptors | 93-118 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 7 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Monday 8* Milwaukee Bucks (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 7 ET - Off of an embarrassing home loss where the Bucks shot just 37% from the field and had 20 turnovers Sunday, look for Milwaukee to respond here. These teams have alternated wins and losses in this series and I wouldn't be surprised to see that trend continue. The Bucks are 9-2 ATS the last 11 times they are off of a loss by 6 points or more and they were drilled by 11 in Milwaukee on Sunday. That big Raptors road win was their first ATS cover in this series and Toronto is still just 3-12 ATS in 1st round playoff games the last 3 seasons combined. As usual, look for the Raptors to have trouble with developing consistent success. Not only has playoff success been elusive for Toronto but, over the last 4 weeks, they've only had back to back covers once. Even if the Raptors do get the SU win here look for the half dozen points they're laying to prove to be too much! 8* MILWAUKEE |
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04-23-17 | Celtics v. Bulls +3 | Top | 104-95 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Sunday 10* Top Play Chicago Bulls (+) vs Boston Celtics @ 6:30 ET - The Rajon Rondo injury is certainly impacting to the Bulls but it is also far from being insurmountable. I look for Chicago to bounce back in a big way at home after getting embarrassed at home on Friday. Certainly that final score looks ugly as the Bulls fell by 17 points to the Celtics but Boston knocked down 46% of their three pointers and outscored Chicago by 33 points from beyond the arc. That's your ballgame right there and that is highly unlikely to be repeated on Sunday. The Celtics won big in Game 3 despite being outrebounded (they've lost badly on boards in this series) and despite attempting just 7 free throws! Now you can see why I am expecting Chicago to prevail in Game 4. They will respond at home after the embarrassing home loss. Keep in mind, the Bulls had covered 4 straight and 12 of their last 16 before losing Friday. Also, the Celtics had failed to cover 9 of their last 12 before the big win in Game 3. The Bulls are 28-18 ATS as an underdog this season. The Celtics are 5-12 ATS this season when off of a win by 10 points or more. Even with the win Friday, Boston is still just 3-10 SU in playoff games the last 3 seasons combined. Look for the Bulls to improve to 7-3 SU and ATS in their last 10 playoff games as they are poised to bounce back and win outright here but certainly I will grab the points being offered. 10* CHICAGO |
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04-23-17 | Rockets +1.5 v. Thunder | Top | 113-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Sunday 10* Top Play Houston Rockets (+) @ Oklahoma City Thunder @ 3:30 ET - The Rockets don't want to give the Thunder any hope in this series and that means they certainly can't afford to lose another tight one at Oklahoma City. Houston can't allow the Thunder to tie it up and I like the Rockets chances to take the 3-1 lead here. Keep in mind, the Thunder shot 55.4% from the field (including 47.4% from three point land) and the Rockets were held under 46% from the field plus misfired on 25 of their 35 three pointers and yet Houston still only lost Game 3 by a bucket! That says a lot right there and I expect a more "normal" shooting performance tonight. The noteworthy aspect of that is the fact that OKC had been held to 43.5% or less from the field in 10 of their last 12 games before the offensive explosion on Friday night. As for the Rockets, they haven't been held below 45.8% from the field in any of their last 4 games. Also, on the season, Houston is the better three point shooting team so the Game 3 result certainly was a bit of an aberration. The Rockets are 10-4 ATS this season as an underdog. Houston is also 19-11 ATS when off of a game where they allowed 115 points or more. OKC is 7-14 ATS this season (and 17-35 ATS the L3 seasons combined) in games with a posted total of 220 points or more. The Thunder also are 22-37 (SU and ATS) the last 3 seasons combined in games against teams that average 106 points or more per game. 10* HOUSTON |
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04-23-17 | Cavs v. Pacers +4 | 106-102 | Push | 0 | 6 h 0 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Sunday 8* Indiana Pacers (+) vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 1 ET - Devastating loss for sure the way the Pacers lost Game 3 to the incredible Cavs comeback. However, a closer look at the boxscore reveals why I won't hesitate to back the home dog in Game 4 as I expect Indiana to fight incredibly hard to avoid getting swept out of the post-season. The Pacers don't want this to happen on their home floor and now, about that boxscore. Cleveland's comeback was keyed by the fact they made a ridiculous 21 of 44 three pointers! Simply put, that's not happening again and, even with that insane shooting performance the Cavaliers only won the game by 5 points. Note that Indiana outrebounded the Cavs, made more shots from inside the arc, and made more free throws. The fact that Cleveland made 21 three pointers was the difference in the game and the likelihood of that happening again rests somewhere between slim and nil. Keep in mind the Pacers had covered 8 straight games before that ATS loss. Also, the Cavaliers had covered just 5 of their last 18 games before that miracle win and cover. The Cavs are 7-13 ATS this season when on a winning streak of 3 games or more. The Pacers are 6-3 ATS this season when they are on a losing streak of 3 or more games. 8* INDIANA |
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04-22-17 | Wizards v. Hawks -2.5 | Top | 98-116 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks (-) vs Washington Wizards @ 5:30 ET - The Hawks lost the turnover battle in each of the first two games and that proved to be the difference maker in the two losses, each by single digits. They truly had a great shot at winning the 2nd game outright but lost the game and the cover late in that one. Look for Atlanta to respond now that they're back home where they've won 4 straight games and also covered 3 straight. The home team has won 6 of the last 7 meetings between these teams and all the games have been decided by at least 3 points. The low line here makes sense considering the Wizards were favored by about 5 or 6 at home but the fact is the low number gives great line value to a solid home team. Atlanta is 93-43 SU in home games the last 3 seasons combined. The Wizards are 11-21 SU the last 32 times they've been a dog. That said, any SU loss is likely to also result in an ATS loss for Washington here considering the low number posted on this game. The Hawks are 3-1 ATS the last 4 times they've been held to 40.5% or less from the field. After a poor shooting performance in Game 2, and hungry and highly motivated for a win to get back in this series and avoid the 'death wish' of a 3-0 hole, look for thee Hawks to respond and get the big home win here. 10* ATLANTA |
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04-22-17 | Raptors +2.5 v. Bucks | 87-76 | Win | 100 | 6 h 57 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Saturday 8* Toronto Raptors (+) @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 3 ET - The last 6 times the Raptors have been held under 40% from the field they've responded every single time with a win, a perfect 6-0 SU mark. Toronto did win the battle of the boards again in Game Three and I look for them to be even more aggressive tonight after the embarrassing loss at Milwaukee by 27 points in Game 3. The Raptors are 6-3 SU this season when off of a loss by a double digit margin. The Bucks are 7-18 ATS the last 3 seasons when they are off of a game where they allowed 85 points or less. The Raptors are known for "ups and downs" in playoff series but, as they've done in the past, they'll make the proper adjustments and come up huge in Game Four after that embarrassing Game 3 loss. Look for the Raptors to improve to 7-0 SU the L7 times they've been held under 40% from the field but I'll also gladly grab the couple points being offered here in case they fall just short in a heart-breaker. 8* TORONTO |
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04-21-17 | Rockets +2.5 v. Thunder | Top | 113-115 | Win | 100 | 14 h 60 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Friday 10* Top Play Houston Rockets (+) @ Oklahoma City Thunder @ 9:30 ET - Oklahoma City took 19 more shots from the field in Game Two compared to the Rockets and also had fewer turnovers and won the battle of the boards. However, the end result was a loss for the Thunder and that certainly doesn't bode well for Game Three for OKC. The problem for Oklahoma City is they're just not shooting well at all right now. The Thunder have been held to 43.5% or less from the field in 7 straight games and 10 of their last 12. The Rockets are at 49% so far in this series and even though Houston has been held under their season average of 36% from three point land, the Rockets have still managed to win both games. You know a big game from Houston's outside shooters is coming and, that said, when the markets zig I am glad to zag as most everyone is likely to be backing the Thunder here at home since they're in an 0-2 hole and now back home. This ignores the fact that, sans Durant, the Thunder are just 1-5 and the lone OKC win came by just 2 points. That said, giving the Rockets the 2.5 or 3 points they're getting in this match-up, Houston would be on a 6-0 ATS run their last 6 versus Oklahoma City. In fact, the Rockets are on a 10-3 ATS run the last 3 seasons combined versus OKC and that includes 5-1 ATS in games played at Oklahoma City. The Thunder are 5-15 SU this season in games with a posted total of 220 points or more and I again expect the Rockets offensive potency to prove to be took much for OKC here. Westbrook is simply being asked to do too much with this team. Look for the Rockets to improve to 11-4 ATS as an underdog this season. 10* HOUSTON |
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04-21-17 | Celtics v. Bulls -115 | 104-87 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Friday 8* Chicago Bulls (-) vs Boston Celtics @ 7 ET - The Celtics are 3-10 ATS this season and 11-24 ATS the last 3 seasons combined when playing with 2 days of rest. Boston also is an ugly 2-8 ATS when they are off of 3 or more consecutive home games. Look for the Celtics, outplayed so far in this series (the 0-2 deficit is not a fluke), to struggle in their first road game in nearly 2 full weeks! As for the Bulls, they are a fantastic 8-3 ATS this season and 27-12 SU the last 3 seasons combined when playing with 2 days of rest. I am referencing a SU streak here because the line on Chicago is low enough here that I would actually recommend playing them on the money line in this match-up. That line is currently in the -110 to -120 range as of very early Friday morning and that is offering great line value here. The Bulls are on a 10-4 ATS run in playoff games while the Celtics are on a 2-10 SU run in playoff games and are in trouble here after not being able to win either game in Boston. Truly Chicago looked like the better team in Boston as they won the battle of the boards and had fewer turnovers than the Celtics. Whether or not it was the distraction of Thomas' sister untimely passing, the fact is that Boston is just not right and the Bulls are a great value at this price on their home floor. 8* CHICAGO |
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04-20-17 | Spurs v. Grizzlies +4 | Top | 94-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Memphis Grizzlies (+) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 9:30 ET - Of course the Memphis head coach made some headlines with his comments about the officiating after Game Two and got fined $30K for said comments. One could argue it may end up being the best $30K he's ever spent! I jest of course but there is some truth to my statement. The Grizzlies are fired up, they are back home, they should get some calls tonight, and let's not forget that Memphis split the season series with the Spurs as they won both games at home. In fact, including regular season and post-season, the home team has now won 6 straight match-ups between these teams! Of course the absence of Tony Allen has hurt the Grizzlies here against the Spurs in this series but this is the do or die game for Memphis as they have chance to either make the series "interesting" tonight or they fall into a 3-0 hole. I believe the former will prove true but I am grabbing the points in case the Grizzlies fall just short and lose a close one. The fact is that Memphis is going to go "all out" tonight and the Spurs, even with the win in Game 2, are still just 4-4 SU (and 3-5 ATS) when leading in a playoff series. The Grizzlies respond big here and I do like for the free throw disparity gap to be closing in a big way in tonight's game. That had a big role in the Spurs only attempting 61 field goals compared to 82 for the Grizzlies and yet San Antonio still won the game by a double digit margin. Big changes coming tonight. 10* MEMPHIS |
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04-20-17 | Raptors +2 v. Bucks | 77-104 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Thursday 8* Toronto Raptors (+) @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 8 ET - Give the Bucks credit, not only did they win Game 1 but they kept battling back in Game 2. The telling statistic though is that the Bucks biggest lead in the entire game was 3 points. The Raptors led most of the way and led the game by as much as 13 points. Toronto kept pulling away but then the Bucks would battle back each time. However, while the Raptors shot 48% from the three point line and from inside the arc, the Bucks made 47% of their threes but only 39% from inside the arc. Toronto, after being challenged by Milwaukee with the loss in Game One, came out with a much stronger game in Game Two and neither team is likely to be so hot from three point land in this one. In other words, advantage Raptors as they've made some adjustments that paid off with easier 2-point buckets for them and tougher shots for the Bucks. Of course it looks easy to back the Bucks here at home since they're laying such a short number and had a solid home record this season but, keep in mind, the Raptors road record was just as strong as the Bucks record in Milwaukee. Also, Toronto is 6-1 SU when tied in a playoff series in recent seasons while Milwaukee has a long-term mark of 3-9 SU in the playoffs when they are tied in a playoff series and truly they don't have the recent experience level in post-season that the Raptors have. Toronto also has been red hot long-term with 13 wins in their last 16 games while the Bucks have lost 5 of their last 8. The home team will be the popular choice tonight and long-time followers know how I feel about "popular" choices! 8* TORONTO |
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04-19-17 | Hawks +5.5 v. Wizards | Top | 101-109 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks (+) @ Washington Wizards @ 7 ET - The Hawks, after losing game one despite outrebounding the Wizards and earning 22 more free throw attempts and having the stronger bench play, will make the proper adjustments in game two. The two day break should favor Atlanta and they're plenty familiar with John Wall and company and can't let them run wild like they did in the 3rd quarter on Sunday. That was the difference maker in the game as the Hawks looked strong in the first half. Atlanta is 27-11 SU when playing with 2 days of rest between games. Also, prior to the game one result, the dog had gotten the cash in 5 of the last 7 meetings between these teams. The Hawks 4 prior visits to Washington had resulted in 1 outright win and two losses by 4 or less points. Good value with the points here considering that Atlanta, before a meaningless season finale, had gone 6-2 SU with one of the 2 losses by just a bucket. Washington had gone just 8-9 SU to wrap up the regular season and 5 of their last 9 wins this season came by 5 points or less. The defense of the Wizards let them down late in the season while the Hawks defense had tightened things up to close out the season. In other words, don't overreact to the Game 1 result. The Wizards took Game 1 but I certainly would not be surprised to see the Hawks even this up with an outright win and there is definitely added value with the generous points being offered. Looking at the last 14 games between these teams there has not been a single occurrence where one has beaten the other by more than 4 points in back to back games. I like those odds! 10* ATLANTA HAWKS |
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04-18-17 | Bulls +7 v. Celtics | Top | 111-97 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Chicago Bulls (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 8 ET - The normal reaction here would be to back the Celtics at home and looking to avoid going into an 0-2 hole in this series. However, Boston showed some very concerning signs in Game One and even if Chicago doesn't again get the upset here, the points should prove to be enough for the cover. Boston got dominated on the glass on Sunday and they've been losing the battle of the boards far too often of late while the Bulls are on a streak where they've been a rebounding machine the past few weeks. Chicago also has been playing rock solid defense with only 89.4 points allowed per game in their last 5 games. Boston has struggled at times on the defensive end late in the season and that was expected to potentially change come playoff time but perhaps the added distraction of Isaiah Thomas' sister having passed away in a car accident is impacting the team. In any event, the Bulls certainly look like the hungrier, fresher team and Chicago is on a 9-4 ATS run in playoff games while the Celtics are on a 2-9 SU run in playoff games! The Bulls are 27-17 ATS as an underdog this season while Boston is 2-7 ATS this season when they enter a game having played each of their three prior games at home. Look for the hungry road dog to be in this one all the way. They're aggressive, they've got some key veteran players, and they're confident as they've won 8 of their last 10 games. 10* CHICAGO |
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04-18-17 | Bucks v. Raptors -7.5 | 100-106 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Tuesday 8* Toronto Raptors (-) vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 7 ET - The last 5 times the Raptors have been held under 40% from the field they've responded every single time with a win and cover, a perfect 5-0 ATS mark. Toronto did win the battle of the boards in Game One and I look for them to be even more aggressive tonight after losing at home by double digits Saturday. The Raptors are 9-4 ATS this season when playing with 2 days of rest between games. The Bucks are 6-18 ATS the last 3 seasons when they are off of a game where they allowed 85 points or less. The Raptors are known for Game One struggles in playoff series but, as they've done in the past, they'll make the proper adjustments and come up huge in Game Two. 8* TORONTO |
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04-17-17 | Grizzlies v. Spurs OVER 188 | Top | 82-96 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
SA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Antonio Spurs vs Memphis Grizzlies @ 9:30 ET - The Grizzlies only scored 52 points in the final 3 quarters of Saturday's loss and yet the game still went over the total. I certainly expect Memphis to shoot the ball better in Game 2 but, as mentioned in my Game 1 pick on the Spurs, the absence of Tony Allen is really hurting the Grizzlies defense. San Antonio erupted for 111 points in Saturday's easy win and I expect another explosion on offense tonight. The series takes two days off after tonight's game and the Spurs want to make another statement before the series heads to Memphis. That said, San Antonio isn't going to take their foot off of the gas in this one and, with the Grizzlies unlikely to be held to such an awful performance from the field again, this one should fly over the total. This season, when the Spurs allow 85 points or less in a game, the over is 5-1 in their next game. The Grizzlies are a perfect 5-0 to the over the last 5 times they've been held under 100 points in a game. Take advantage of the low total posted on this game as well as the downward line move as it has opened up some nice line value on the over in this one. 10* OVER the total in San Antonio |
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04-17-17 | Pacers +7.5 v. Cavs | 111-117 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Monday 8* Indiana Pacers (+) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7 ET - With the Pacers one point loss at Cleveland on Saturday, Indiana is now a perfect 7-0 ATS in the month of April. I see no reason to not keep riding the Pacers and their ATS streak. The Cavaliers are at the other end of the spectrum as they're currently on a 5-12 ATS run. Keep in mind, Cleveland failed to cover Game One of this series despite shooting 54% from the field and that says a lot right there. The Cavs are highly unlikely to again shoot that well tonight. Cleveland is now 6-11 ATS this season (and 20-39 ATS the last 3 seasons) in divisional games. The Pacers are 6-2 ATS in all playoff games in recent seasons. Indiana is also 2-0 SU and ATS when trailing in a playoff series and long-term the Pacers are 27-15 ATS when trailing in a playoff series. After coming up just short in Game One, Indiana will go even harder in Game Two and should the Pacers again fall short of the upset, the points should prove to be more than enough here. 8* INDIANA |
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04-16-17 | Bulls v. Celtics -6 | Top | 106-102 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Sunday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics (-) vs Chicago Bulls @ 6:30 ET - The markets reacted, as expected, to the news that Isaiah Thomas' sister tragically passed away in a car accident early Saturday morning. Now a line that was as high as a -8 has dropped to a -6. This is as if bettors have intimate knowledge of the family, how close knit they are or are not, and how Thomas will react to this. News flash: they really don't know any of this. That said, Thomas is going to play Sunday and I expect his teammates to also rally around him and I also can tell you that when looking at some of the historical events with this family and Thomas being on the East Coast and his sister on the West Coast I think it is evident that this is not going to be nearly as impacting as many think it would be. In any event, I would have been fine laying 8 here but am even happier to lay just 6. By the way, I don't mean to make light of the passing of someone in the Thomas family. I express my condolences on that. I am just saying it's unlikely to be anywhere as impacting to Thomas as some think it may be. If anything it is likely to drive he and his Celtics teammates (on his behalf) to play even harder on Sunday evening. I know the Bulls made a nice late season push and have some playoff veterans. However, I also know that the Celtics earned this #1 seed and are now being severely undervalued even though they have the home court edge. The Celtics went 11-6 ATS against Central Division opponents this season. The Bulls went 3-8 SU (and 4-7 ATS) this season when off of a game where they allowed 90 points or less. The home team has won each of the last 7 meetings between these teams and the average margin of victory has been 8 points. Look for the home team to get it done again and 11 of the Celtics last 14 wins have been by 7 points or more. 12 of the Bulls last 15 losses have come by 7 points or more. 10* BOSTON |
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04-16-17 | Blazers v. Warriors OVER 219.5 | Top | 109-121 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Golden State Warriors vs Portland Trail Blazers @ 3:30 ET - This total was as high as a 223 and now has dropped below 220. I like the added value on the over here in a game where the Warriors are unlikely to take their foot off of the gas. This is a playoff rematch from last May and 4 of those 5 games went over the total. Also, all 4 of their regular season match-ups this season totaled at least 224 points. The Trail Blazers averaged 108 points per game in the regular season and the Warriors averaged 119 points per game in their home games. There is no reason this game can't be a 123-108 type game which would have it landing right around the current point spread of -14.5 in favor of Golden State. That would also have it going over the total by about a dozen points which is why this selection is a top play for me. Excellent line value here and the over is 15-8 this season when Portland has faced a team that averages 106 points or more per game. Also, should this total creep back up again, the Blazers are 14-8 to the over in games with a posted total of 220 points or more this season. The Warriors are averaging 126 points per game in their last 6 meetings with the Trail Blazers and they want to make a statement here at home in Game One which means plenty of run and gun with big points expected here. 10* OVER the total in Golden State |
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04-16-17 | Hawks +5 v. Wizards | 107-114 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 27 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Sunday 8* Atlanta Hawks (+) @ Washington Wizards @ 1 ET - Look for defense to be the difference maker here. The Wizards big weakness is defense and they allowed their opponents to hit at least 49.4% from the field in 15 of their last 23 games! As for the Hawks, they have held their opponents to less than 46.3% from the field in 18 of their last 26 games. Washington finished up the season on an 8-9 run and 4 of the 8 wins came by 5 points or less. Atlanta, before a meaningless season finale where they benched their starts, won 6 of their last 8 games and one of the two losses came by just a bucket. Even though the Wizards took 3 of the 4 regular season meetings, two of the three wins came by 4 points or less. Also, they've met only once since late January and the Hawks truly have turned things up a notch on defense during their late season run while the Wizards defensive shortcomings became even more apparent in their late season fade. Grab the value with the dangerous, defensive-minded road dog here. 8* ATLANTA |
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04-15-17 | Grizzlies v. Spurs -9.5 | Top | 82-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Saturday 10* Top Play San Antonio Spurs (-) vs Memphis Grizzlies @ 8 ET - Memphis gave the Spurs some trouble in the regular season and, as a result, we're being given some line value here. Let's not forget that in the post-season last year San Antonio ripped the Grizzlies by an average margin of 22 points per game in an absolute shellacking of Memphis. While the Spurs are not necessarily the same team as last year, they are still unquestionably one of the league's best teams and, in game one, they host a Grizzlies team that relies on physical play and defense to overcome it's offensive shortcomings. That said, Memphis has a major problem here as they lost Tony Allen to injury in their final regular season game. He is a veteran defensive stalwart that the Grizzlies absolutely had to have to have a real shot at slowing down Kawhi Leonard. With Allen out, Leonard is going to run roughshod over the Grizzlies and let's also not forget the Spurs are one of the top three point shooting teams in the league. This one is likely to quickly turn into a home rout as San Antonio takes advantage of an Allen-less Grizz team that lost 9 of its last 12 games. Memphis went 1-11 SU (and ATS!) when playing with 2 days of rest this season. The Spurs are 9-2 in the last 11 meetings with the Grizzlies and the average margin of victory in those 9 games was 15.7 points per win! Look for another home rout here! 10* SAN ANTONIO |
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04-15-17 | Bucks v. Raptors OVER 199 | Top | 97-83 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
Total Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Raptors vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 5:30 ET - Fresh legs here for both teams of course with 2 days off before the playoffs begin. That is noteworthy in this case as the over is 10-2 this season when the Raptors enter a game with 2 days off between games. I like the fact that this total has dropped from an opener of 203.5 down to a 199 as of early gameday morning. This is offering us solid line value in this spot. Toronto is off of an under in their most recent game but previously had gone over the total in 6 of their last 8 games. The Bucks had some unders late in the season but their better defensive games had a lot to do with the opposition. In fact, in their last 3 road games against playoff teams, Milwaukee has allowed an average of 109 points per game! In the Raptors last 8 home games, they've allowed an average of 107 points per game. You can see why I am liking the value here with this over as all hands are on deck for both teams and the Raptors are a different team when at home in the post-season. They can put up huge points and get red hot from the outside and this has been particularly true when playing north of the border! The Raptors are 26-15 to the over in home games this season and also went 18-9 to the over in their games against teams with a winning record. The Bucks wrapped up the regular season with an ugly loss but are 14-7 to the over this season when off of a loss by a double digit margin. Take advantage of the line value here. Raptors are going to run and gun in this game and force Milwaukee to match their fast tempo. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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04-15-17 | Pacers +8.5 v. Cavs | 108-109 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Saturday 8* Indiana Pacers (+) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 3 ET - The defending NBA champs have struggled on defense this season and they also come into this game having lost 4 straight games. Conversely, the Pacers come into this match-up having won 5 straight games and certainly are the hungrier team. That hunger factor is very important and I see that being a limiting factor here in Game 1 for the Cavaliers who arguably come into this series with a "cavalier" attitude in terms of a "been there, done that" approach. It's going to be hard for that "approach" to get the job done (at least in Game 1) when the Pacers are going to come in with a huge push of energy and emotion after they fought their way into the playoffs with a red hot season-ending run. Indiana is full of confidence right now and they are 31-17 ATS against divisional foes the last 3 seasons combined. The Cavs are 20-38 ATS versus divisional foes the last 3 seasons combined and they are an ugly 3-15 ATS when off of a game where they scored 85 points or less. I know Cleveland comes into this game thinking they can "flip a switch" and everything will immediately be "alright" but that is unlikely to be the case against this determined and highly motivated Pacers team that has covered 6 straight games to begin April! 8* INDIANA |
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04-12-17 | Wolves v. Rockets OVER 226 | 118-123 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Houston Rockets vs Minnesota Timberwolves @ 8:05 ET - This should play out more like an All-Star game than anything else. Minnesota lost the last game they really cared about (home finale) last night and will simply do tonight what this young team has done for much of the season (run and gun with very little defense). The Rockets are locked into their playoff seeding and will simply get their guys some minutes and certainly the focus will not be on intense defense but rather on staying sharp with the outside shooting and quick scoring ability that characterizes this Houston team. The last time these teams met they combined for 272 points and no that game did not go to overtime! The Rockets have allowed an average of 118 points per game in their last 9 games. The T-wolves have allowed an average of 114 points per game in their last 15 games. Minnesota is 22-9 to the over (including 11-4 this season) when they are off of an upset loss as a favorite. The Rockets are 11-6 to the over this season in their games against Northwest Division opponents. 9 of the last 10 meetings between these teams have gone over the total and this one has "run and gun" written all over it. 8* OVER the total in Houston |
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04-12-17 | Mavs +8 v. Grizzlies | Top | 100-93 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Dallas Mavericks (+) @ Memphis Grizzlies @ 8:05 ET - The Mavericks will likely play without Dirk Nowitzki and Jose Juan Barea tonight and, as a result, this line has jumped tremendously. This is even though Memphis has no concern about this game whatsoever and the Grizzlies head coach admitted he is spending zero time worrying about the Mavericks and all of his focus is going into their upcoming playoff opponent, the Spurs. The hungry role players that will be on the floor tonight for Dallas are playing their final game of the the season. Conversely, the Grizzlies players (including the bench) are excited about the upcoming post-season and are just trying to stay sharp in tonight's game. I give the Mavericks a great shot at winning this game outright as the players who are on the floor tonight will be giving it their all and looking to close out the season with a win while the Grizzlies only concern is staying healthy for a big match-up with the Spurs coming up. By the way, Memphis has lost 8 of their last 11 games and have gone 1-10 SU and ATS this season when playing with two days of rest between games. The Mavericks are 15-10 ATS this season when off of a double digit loss and they'll be the more focused team in tonight's game. Grab the big dog value in a game where distracted Memphis just isn't likely to score enough to get a big cover no matter who the Mavs have on the floor. The Grizzlies have only reached triple digits 4 times in their last 11 games! This should be an ugly game where there is solid line value with the big points! 10* DALLAS plus the points Wednesday evening |
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04-11-17 | Nuggets +1.5 v. Mavs | Top | 109-91 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (+) @ Dallas Mavericks @ 8:35 ET - The Nuggets playoff hopes got dashed by a last second super long three pointer against the Thunder and, as disappointing as that is, Denver knew their post-season chances were slim. The fact is, the way they lost to OKC is going to have the Nuggets fired up here. That was their final home game of the season and Oklahoma City ruined it for them. What is the only thing that Denver can do now to make up for it per se? They can beat the Mavericks in their home finale and at least ruin someone else's. You can bet (literally!) that the Nuggets are geared up to do just that here. Look for a strong effort from the road team here as they look to avenge a 20 point loss in their only other visit to Dallas this season. It's time for redemption and they want to do to the Mavs what the Thunder just did to them. The Nuggets had covered 4 straight and 11 of 15 before that loss. Conversely, the Mavericks come into this game having lost 4 straight and 8 of their last 9. The Mavs have seen each of their last 3 games go over the total as they've allowed an average of 113 points per game with some sub-par defense included! The past 3 seasons combined, when the Mavericks are on a 3-0 run to the over, they have gone 8-16 ATS! The D is just not there for the Mavs right now, and the Nuggets will bring their D in the Big D tonight as they look to let out some frustration. Look for the Nuggets to improve to 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games against teams with a losing record. 10* DENVER |
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04-11-17 | Thunder +4 v. Wolves | 100-98 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
NBA TV Blowout ATS Rout - Rickenbach NBA Tuesday 8* Oklahoma City Thunder (+) @ Minnesota Timberwolves @ 8:05 ET - The Timberwolves have lost 11 of 14 games. Granted the Thunder got Russell Westbrook his record and also are locked into their seeding for the post-season so they have little to play for here. However, the T-wolves only have 3 wins in their last 14 games and 2 of those wins came by only a single point. Also, Minny just lost to the Lakers as a 6 point favorite. Even with OKC resting some guys and letting back-ups get plenty of minutes here, think of how bad the Lakers are and how many of them would actually beat out guys that are on the Thunder roster. The point is that this line is inflated given the talent of depth of Oklahoma City as well as the fact that they're motivated by a 10 point loss in their last meeting with the Timberwolves. OKC is 10-3 ATS when off of a divisional game and 6-3 ATS when off of an upset win as an underdog. The Thunder also are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 games against teams that allow 106 points or more per game. The Timberwolves are 13-22 ATS as a favorite this season and 25-42 ATS the last 3 seasons combined. They are a young team that has trouble closing teams out and the Thunder will surprise here as they get revenge even with guys sitting and resting. The bench steps up. 8* OKLAHOMA CITY |
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04-10-17 | Wizards +3.5 v. Pistons | 105-101 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA Monday 8* Washington Wizards (+) @ Detroit Pistons @ 8 ET - I realize that the Pistons are closing out The Palace of Auburn Hills. However, Detroit is also closing out another disappointing campaign where they've fallen short of the post-season. That said, even though the Wizards are going to rest some guys as they're preparing for the playoffs and are locked into position, Washington also wants to get some momentum back and strengthen it's bench play as it prepares for the first round of playoff action. That being the case, 4 losses in their last 6 games is not going to cut it and the Wizards know they must start playing better. I look for a strong effort from the road team here and the fact that Washington has gone from a 3.5 point favorite to a 3.5 point dog in this match-up is huge in terms of the line value. The Pistons are in a back to back here and have gone 5-11 ATS (and 3-13 SU) in the 2nd game of a back to back this season. The Wizards are 22-14 SU (and 23-13 ATS) when playing with revenge this season and, unlike Detroit, they were off yesterday. 8* WASHINGTON |
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04-10-17 | Hornets +7 v. Bucks | Top | 79-89 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA Monday 10* Top Play Charlotte Hornets (+) @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 8:05 ET - The Bucks just clinched a playoff spot and I know they have some motivation to win here because of seeding for the playoffs but I also know they're laying big points here considering the Hornets just got eliminated from the post-season over the weekend and would love nothing more than to upset the Bucks tonight. Charlotte will be motivated by the opportunity to push the Bucks down a little in the standings. Keep in mind, this is a unique situation as Milwaukee just got in this past weekend and Charlotte just got knocked out over the weekend. That makes this a bit of a revenge spot for the Hornets who also do have true revenge here because they lost at home to the Bucks two weeks ago. The road team has covered 6 straight meetings in this series and the away team has notched the outright SU win on the road in 5 straight meetings. Even though the Bucks are expected to have Malcolm Brogdon back tonight his back may flare up on him again and he is truly not 100% and, also, Giannis Antetokounmpo is still dealing with an illness. That is why, even though Kemba Walker of the Hornets may not play tonight, I still like the road dog to put up one helluva fight in this game and that should be enough for the road cash even if they fall short of the upset win. It's payback time here. 10* CHARLOTTE |
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04-10-17 | Pacers v. 76ers +9 | 120-111 | Push | 0 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA 8* Monday Philadelphia 76'ers (+) vs Indiana Pacers @ 7:05 ET - The Pacers need to win as they still haven't locked up a post-season spot while the 76'ers have been eliminated for a long time. That said, Indiana just has to be the play here, right? As usual, the old "must win" scenario is very over-priced and the market has pushed it even higher. The Pacers are now laying 9 points on the road and, keep in mind, Indiana is only 12-28 in road games this season and the 76'ers have gone 17-23 at home. Also, this is Philly's home finale so they are certainly are not going to just "lay down" for this game. Give me the big home dog here! The Sixers are 21-12 ATS (including a perfect 3-0 this season) when off of a game where they scored 85 points or less. The Pacers are 6-11 ATS in games against Atlantic Division opponents and, as noted above, the home/road dichotomy is huge here as Indiana has gone just 15-25 ATS in road games this season while the 76'ers have gone 26-14 ATS in home games this season. 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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04-09-17 | Mavs +1.5 v. Suns | Top | 111-124 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Sunday 10* Top Play Dallas Mavericks (+) @ Phoenix Suns @ 6:05 ET - The first numbers posted on this one had Dallas as a 2.5 point favorite and they are now a 1.5 point underdog as of early Sunday morning. With a full 4 point move here we are even getting more line value in a game where the Mavs are highly motivated and catching the Suns at the right time for a big win. Keep in mind, Phoenix is off of their huge win over Russell Westbrook and company as they knocked off the Thunder by a 120-99 final on Friday night. Prior to that win the Suns had lost 13 straight and they could definitely come out a little flat here. Dallas has lost two home match-ups with Phoenix this season as they Mavericks only win over the Suns was a victory in a neutral site game played in Mexico. Phoenix is 2-11 SU in Sunday games this season while the Mavericks are 9-1 SU (and 10-0 ATS!) in Sunday games this season. I don't use a lot of "day of the week" trends but the Sunday trends are worth paying attention too because the Sunday games involves two key factors. That is, how a team handles things the night before (being that it is a Saturday night) and then how they prep for what is generally an earlier than usual tip-off the next day. As you can see from those numbers above, Dallas has handled it well this season and Phoenix certainly has not. Also, going further back, the last 3 seasons combined Dallas is 24-11 SU in Sunday games while Phoenix is 11-27 SU! The Mavs will be hungry to bounce back after their home loss to the Spurs Friday and the Mavericks are 14-8 ATS this when off of a loss by a double digit margin. The Suns are off the huge win over the Thunder and Phoenix has gone 8-13 ATS (and 5-16 SU) this season when off of a game where they scored 115 points or more. I'll gladly fade them in this spot as the Mavericks are out for revenge. 10* DALLAS |
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04-09-17 | Thunder v. Nuggets -4.5 | 106-105 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Sunday 8* Denver Nuggets (-) vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 5:05 ET - Denver is still alive in the playoff race and the team they're chasing, Portland, is off until tomorrow. That means nothing is going to change the mindset of the Nuggets here. They're going to go hard and try to stay alive as they know their playoff hopes, though slim, are still there. They could be catching the right team at the right time. The Thunder would like to help Russell Westbrook get his triple double record but, other than that, the main concern of Oklahoma City right now is to just stay healthy. That was evident in the 21 point beating that they just took at Phoenix on Friday night. Now the Thunder face a motivated Nuggets team and Denver has a long losing streak in this series and are highly motivated by that as well as the playoff implications. The Nuggets have covered 4 straight games and the Thunder are on a 4-6 ATS run overall and have failed to cover 9 of their last 14 road games as well. OKC is 4-12 SU (and 5-11 ATS) in games with a posted total of 220 or more this season. The Nuggets are 23-15 ATS in games with a posted total of 220 or more this season. Denver is off of a big win over New Orleans Friday and they are 13-8 ATS when off of a win by a margin of 10 points or more this season. Look for the Nuggets to improve to 7-2 ATS in Sunday games this season. 8* DENVER |
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04-08-17 | Heat +6 v. Wizards | 106-103 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Saturday 8* Miami Heat (+) @ Washington Wizards @ 7:05 ET - I am well aware of the fact that this is a tough back to back spot for the Heat. But these things must be treated differently late in the season. A back to back at this time of the year is not the same as one early in the season or mid-season. In this case for Miami, after falling just short at Toronto last night, it's do or die time. The Heat need to win and keep their playoff hopes alive. Until their playoff chances are pronounced dead they are not going to stop fighting. That said, I see great line value here. Washington's defensive inadequacies continue to do them in. The Wizards are off of a non-covering win at New York and are now on a 6-14 ATS run. Even if they win this game versus Miami (and certainly the Heat are the more motivated team) they may not cover this inflated number. The Wizards are 14-10 in their last 24 games but only 4 of the 24 games was a Wizards win by double digits. They just don't blow teams out very often and Miami is a dog by half a dozen here and that's a sizable spread for them. Even though the Heat have cooled off and are only 10-7 in their last 17 games, only 2 of those 17 games resulted in a Miami loss by more than 4 points. The Heat are 12-2 ATS in the 2nd game of a back to back this season. They're also on an 11-1 ATS run in games against teams with a winning record. Look for the Wizards long-term ATS woes to continue here as the Heat are once again playing their "game of the year" as wins are so critical for them right now. 8* MIAMI |
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04-08-17 | Bucks v. 76ers +6.5 | Top | 90-82 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76'ers (+) vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 7:05 ET - The Sixers were held to a ridiculous 36.3% from the field in Thursday's home game versus the Bulls and still only lost the game by 12 points. I expect Philly to bounce back and shoot much better here and that's bad news for a Bucks team that is simply playing pathetic and inexcusable basketball right now. Milwaukee hasn't even managed to punch their ticket to the playoffs just yet because they've lost 3 straight games. Overall it's an 0-4 ATS run for the Bucks and they've averaged just 84 points per game in their last two games and yet they've allowed 106.4 points per game in their last 7 games. It looks like Milwaukee is falling back into old habits and the Sixers are a dangerous home dog when they're motivated. That said, the Bucks have had the 76'ers number in recent meetings in Philly and the Sixers will be out for some payback here. This is especially true with Philadelphia coming off of back to back embarrassing performances at home. The 76'ers played awful defense in one game and had awful offense in the next. They still have covered 11 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record and are 20-8 ATS this season when playing with home loss revenge. Also, the Sixers are 19-8 ATS when off of a loss by a double digit margin. The Bucks are an ugly 5-11 ATS against Atlantic Division foes this season. Also, Milwaukee is 16-27 ATS in their games against teams with a losing record this season. The Bucks underestimate the 76'ers here and I smell an upset but will certainly grab the generous points. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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04-07-17 | Heat +5.5 v. Raptors | 94-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Friday 8* Miami Heat (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 7:35 ET - Toronto has Kyle Lowry back but is beating a Pistons team that has lost 10 of 12 games really that great of a sign for the Raptors? Toronto had to rally just to get the win and the Pistons had been in an awful slump. Now the Raptors host a Heat team that is desperately hanging on to it's post-season hopes and that means they'll be very tough for Toronto to put away here. I would not be surprised to see Miami get the outright upset win they need but certainly there is value with the points being offered here. The Heat have been at their best in spots like this as they are on a 10-1 ATS run against teams with a winning record. Miami got an upset win at Charlotte Wednesday that they desperately needed. While that may seem like it makes this a good spot to fade them, the fact is that in a late-season spot like this with their playoff lives on the line, there is no way the Heat are going to come out flat here. Also, when off of an upset win as an underdog this season, Miami has gone 13-5 ATS this season! The Raptors are on an 11-18 ATS run in April games and, although Toronto still has some home court playoff seeding implications at stake here, they won't be able to match the intensity and will of a Heat team that is playing for their lives right now. That makes the dangerous, revenge minded dog the play here and the Heat are 10-5 ATS this season when playing with home loss revenge. 8* MIAMI early Friday evening |
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04-07-17 | Hawks +12 v. Cavs | Top | 114-100 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
NBA TV Blowout ATS Rout - Rickenbach NBA Friday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks (+) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7:35 ET - The very first number that came out on this game was a -9 for Cleveland and now the Cavaliers are all the way up to being a 12 point choice in this game. I'll gladly grab the value on the other side with the Hawks plus the big points. Atlanta is likely to be without Paul Millsap but, keep in mind, the Cavs are expected to be without Tristan Thompson and that hurts since they don't have Andrew Bogut whom they had high hopes for before he got hurt a month ago. The interior defense of the Cavaliers is going to be impacted here and I look for Dwight Howard and company to take advantage. This game has meaning for both teams so I expect plenty of intensity from both teams and a much closer game than many are expecting here. Keep in mind, the road team has won 4 straight meetings between these teams. Atlanta is seeking revenge for a hard-fought 5-point home loss to the Cavaliers in their most recent meeting. The Cavs are suddenly receiving a lot of love because they just trounced Boston but the Hawks are also coming off of a win over the Celtics. Also, let's not forget that Cleveland had lost 11 of their last 18 games before their recent 4-game winning streak. By the way the 4 victories have included wins over the Magic and 76'ers (2 very poor teams) as well as a 5-point win over Indiana. This is simply too many points in a game that means a lot to Atlanta. The Hawks have won 3 of 5 after a tough recent stretch and one of the two losses came by just a bucket. The point is they should hang tough in this one throughout. The Hawks are 16-10 ATS as an underdog this season and 11-4 ATS in divisional games. The Cavaliers are 7-12 ATS this season when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more. 10* ATLANTA |
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04-06-17 | Nets +2.5 v. Magic | 107-115 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Thursday 8* Brooklyn Nets (+) @ Orlando Magic @ 7:05 ET - Both teams are eliminated from post-season contention but the comparison ends there because Brooklyn is still playing hard but Orlando certainly is not. The Nets have won 3 straight and covered 13 of their last 17 games. The Magic have lost 5 straight and they've covered just 3 of their last 13 games. Orlando does have a home game on deck with Indiana and they may "rise up" in a game like that since they may be able to hurt the Pacers post-season chances. However, in a game like this, there is simply no reason for the Magic to be excited as they host a team they've beaten in 5 of the last 6 meetings. As for the Nets, not only are they still giving some strong effort on the floor, they are motivated by the late-season visit here last year where the Magic pummeled them 139-105 in a game where Orlando did not seem to let up. Look for the Nets to return the favor on the road this time around. The Magic have failed to cover 12 of their last 13 games against teams that allow 106 points or more per game. Also, on the season, Orlando is 1-7 (SU and ATS) in games with a posted total of 220 points or more. The Nets are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 games with a posted total of 219 points or more and I look for a road upset in this one but will grab the available points. 8* BROOKLYN NETS early Thursday evening |
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04-06-17 | Bulls -6 v. 76ers | Top | 102-90 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Chicago Bulls (-) @ Philadelphia 76'ers @ 7:05 ET - The Sixers beat the Bulls in Chicago two weeks ago but much has changed since then. Philly is showing that they have officially thrown in the towel on the season. Yes, the lack of a shot at post-season has long been determined but at least Philadelphia was playing with some pride. However, they enter this game having lost 4 straight and the 76'ers have allowed a ridiculous shooting percentage of 56.5% from the field in their last 3 games. They now face a Bulls team seeking revenge and still alive in the playoff race. I highly doubt that Philadelphia is going to be able to match the intensity of Chicago in this one. The Bulls had won 4 straight before the loss to the Knicks and Chicago will bounce back here. They know they have 4 very winnable games to wrap up the regular season and they know it's basically a "win and your in" situation for them. The Bulls only shot 38% at New York Tuesday and they are 3-0 ATS the last 3 times they've been held under 41% from the field. Also, Philly is unlikely to shoot 55% like they did at Chicago two weeks ago. The 76'ers last 9 games featured the aberration that was the win at Chicago and, other than that, the 8 games saw the Sixers shoot a combined 42.7% from the field. Philadelphia is 8-15 ATS (and 3-20 SU) when they enter a game off of 3 more consecutive overs. The 76'ers also are now 1-15 SU in April games the past 3 seasons combined. The Bulls get the win here and I look for a big cover too as they improve upon a 31-20 ATS mark in their last 51 games against Atlantic Division opponents. Revenge time here. 10* CHICAGO early Thursday evening. |
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04-05-17 | Thunder v. Grizzlies OVER 202 | 103-100 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach NBA 8* OVER the total in Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 8:05 ET - I lost with my over involving OKC last night but the Bucks were simply pathetic. Scoring only 79 points in that game was a complete embarrassment for then. The Thunder, even with taking their foot off the gas and Russell Westbrook getting rest due to Milwaukee's horrible effort, still scored 110 points. I look for Oklahoma City to have another big game on offense tonight but I expect the Grizzlies to score right along with them. Memphis will be looking to have a breakout game after having to face the determined defense of the Spurs. The playoff positioning of both the Thunder and Grizzlies is very nearly "set" so I don't expect a lot of defensive intensity in this one. Look for a free-flowing game and the Thunder did score 114 points the last time they faced Memphis. As for the Grizzlies, they scored 114 points the last time they hosted Oklahoma City. Â Both these teams have been trending "under" of late but I prefer to be a contrarian and the Thunder are 14-8 to the over in April games and have stayed under the total just 7 times in 21 games when they enter a game having played each of their three prior games at home. Now embarking on a 4-game road trip after a 3-game homestand, look for the Thunder team to be in full "run and gun" mode here as they look to help Westbrook break Oscar Robertson's record for most triple double performances in a season! 8* OVER the total in Memphis |
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04-05-17 | Heat v. Hornets -125 | 112-99 | Loss | -125 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Wednesday 8* Charlotte Hornets (-) vs Miami Heat @ 7:05 ET - After the first numbers yesterday on this game were -3, the line dropped substantially. In fact, it got so low that Charlotte can be had on the money line for a very low price in this one and that make it well worth it to put a Hornets win by 2 or 1 into the win column with this one. Of course Charlotte is in a tough back to back here as they battled hard and ultimately lost at Washington last night. But truly the Hornets season is on the line and that means this isn't a "normal" back to back. Also, Charlotte is hosting a Miami team that has lost 4 of its last 6 games. Also, when the Heat are without Dion Waiters (ankle injury) they have struggled this season and have lost 5 of the 8 games he's missed. Especially in crunch-time they are missing his late-game offense and I don't see the Hornets again struggling late after they blew a big early lead yesterday at Washington. Now, back home and fired up, look for the hotter team (Hornets 7-3 last 10 games) to get right back on track. Adding fuel to the fire, Miami knocked Charlotte out of the playoffs last season and the Hornets lost the most recent regular season match-up with the Heat after winning the first two. The Hornets are still 10-4 (SU and ATS) in divisional games this season and the Heat have actually lost 6 of 9 games this season when playing with 2 days of rest. In other words, Miami's rest edge may not be as big as you would think. Hornets keep their season alive with a home win tonight. 8* CHARLOTTE |
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04-04-17 | Bucks v. Thunder OVER 211 | 79-110 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 55 m | Show | |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Tuesday 8* OVER the total in Oklahoma City Thunder vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 8:05 ET - Given where Oklahoma City's position is in the standings are they really more concerned about wins and losses or giving Russell Westbrook the opportunity to break Oscar Robertson's all time triple double record? No matter where you stand on that question, the fact is that plenty of "run and gun" should be expected in this game Tuesday. The Thunder are off of back to back home losses and need to respond. The Bucks are off of a home loss to Dallas and they talked about their lack of defensive intensity in that game. However, does that mean "under" here? Not necessarily as the Bucks use their defense to fuel fast breaks going the other way and that leads to quick, easy points in transition the other way. The point is that Milwaukee can be expected to push the pace in this one and, at that same time, no team really enjoys success in slowing down Westbrook and company. This is especially true when the Thunder are off of back to back home losses. The Bucks are on a 4-1 run to the over in their last 5 games. Also, each of Milwaukee's last two visits to OKC have gone over the total. The over is 8-4 this season when the Bucks are off of an upset loss as a favorite and they'll respond off of the home loss to the Mavericks. As for the Thunder, the over is 14-7 in their last 21 April games. More of the same on this early April night as the over improves to 6-1 in Milwaukee's Tuesday games this season. 8* OVER the total in Oklahoma City |
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04-04-17 | Hornets +4 v. Wizards | 111-118 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 49 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Tuesday 8* Charlotte Hornets (+) @ Washington Wizards @ 7:05 ET - This is a classic case of "hot versus not" and, at the same time, it is also a game that means much more to the Hornets than the Wizards. Sure, Washington would like to get back on track after a disappointing finish to their road trip. But the first game back after a West Coast road trip is often the toughest one on an East Coast team and the Wizards just wrapped up playing 4 games in 6 days out West by getting blasted by 24 points at Golden State. Washington has now lost 3 straight games and they're playoff positioning at this point is really not giving them any huge motivation for winning games. Conversely, Charlotte has been playing "desperate" basketball of late as they are fighting hard for a playoff berth. The Hornets have won 3 straight games and 7 of their last 9. Also, Charlotte has gone 10-3 SU and ATS in divisional games this season. Off of an upset win at Oklahoma City many may want to fade the Hornets here but Charlotte is actually a perfect 3-0 SU this season when off of an upset win as an underdog. Also, the Wizards have covered only 5 games in their last 18 so it's not like their streak of sub-par play is only short-term. The fact is that Washington continues to be over-valued and they've covered only 1 home game since February 28th. The Hornets have not enjoyed success in recent trips to DC so there is no shortage of motivation here as they continue to fight for a playoff spot. The hungrier hot team catches the Wizards still reeling and needing more time to recover from their west coast road trip. 8* CHARLOTTE |
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04-03-17 | North Carolina -118 v. Gonzaga | Top | 71-65 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
CBS Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Monday 10* Top Play North Carolina Tar Heels Money Line (-) vs Gonzaga Bulldogs @ 9:20 ET - Most of the Tar Heels shot very poorly Saturday and yet North Carolina still beat a very solid Oregon team. That says a lot about just how strong UNC is and the fact that they could lead an entire second half but falter late on free throws and yet still win the game shows that, indeed, this just might be the Tar Heels year. North Carolina opened up as a 2 point choice here but the line has moved down so far now that a "near pick'em" price is available on the money line for UNC in this game. The Tar Heels have played quite well on the defensive end throughout the tourney but they don't get the hype that the Bulldogs do and, keep in mind, Gonzaga faced a much weaker schedule this season in comparison with North Carolina. Of course this total is set high which certainly is reflective of the fact that both these teams have tremendous firepower on offense. Interestingly, the Bulldogs have played 7 games with a posted total of 150 or more this season and they only covered 1 of the 7 games! Also, as great as their regular season ATS numbers were, Gonzaga has covered only 1 of its 5 NCAA Tourney games and, of course, the competition is even tougher now as they face a championship-caliber opponent. I respect the Bulldogs but still feel they are over-valued as they got lucky to catch South Carolina (instead of Duke) and Xavier was not as strong as prior Musketeers teams. Gonzaga really steps up in class now and I don't see them upsetting the Tar Heels. Odds are that UNC shoots MUCH better than they did Saturday and that should key a rather comfortable win here. 10* NORTH CAROLINA |
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04-03-17 | Blazers +2 v. Wolves | Top | 109-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Monday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (+) @ Minnesota Timberwolves @ 7 ET - The Trail Blazers opened up as the favorite here but are now a 2 point dog. Of course many are looking at the fact that Minnesota is seeking revenge and would love to play the role of spoiler here. However, the Timberwolves just don't play enough defense to get the stops necessary to stay in front of the Trailblazers. The Blazers have won 6 straight games and 14 of their last 17. The Wolves have lost 7 of their last 9 games. Minny has only won 1 game in it last 7 meetings with Portland and that victory came by a single point. In other words, give the Blazers +2 (the line on this game as of early gameday morning) and they would be on a 7-0 ATS run in games against the T-wolves. The other reason people are likely fading Portland has to do with Jusuf Nurkic being out but Noah Vonleh got extra minutes against Phoenix as a result of Nurkic's absence and he scored 14 points and had 13 rebounds. The Blazers still have enough firepower to get past a Wolves team that has allowed a ridiculous 54% from the field during their current 2-7 streak their last 9 games. Look for more of the same Monday. The Trailblazers are 9-3 SU (and 8-4 ATS) in divisional games this season and 4-0 SU and ATS the last 4 times they've been off of a game where they scored 130 points or more. The Timberwolves are 4-8 SU in divisional games this season and 4-10 ATS when off of a game where they scored 115 points or more. 10* PORTLAND |
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04-02-17 | Mavs +6 v. Bucks | Top | 109-105 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach Sunday NBA 10* Top Play Dallas Mavericks (+) @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 3:35 ET - This line looks "funny" to me and long-time followers know how I feel about "strange" lines. They are usually set that way for a reason. In this case, the line on this game opened up with the Bucks as "only" a 5.5 point favorite even though Milwaukee has won 14 of 17 games and are at home hosting a Mavericks team that has lost 4 straight games and 8 of its last 11. The line appears even more "questionable" when one considers that not only are the Bucks the much hotter team but Dallas has gone 9-26 in road games this season. That said, in typical contrarian fashion, I am on the Mavs here. Now, as always, there is support for the contrarian decision. Even though the Bucks are motivated to improve their position in the playoff standings, the Mavericks are even more motivated to make sure they stay alive in the race for a post-season spot. Certainly things are looking bleak for Dallas but I don't see them stopping the fight until the final bell on their season has been rung. The Mavericks have gone 10-6 ATS their last 16 games against teams with a winning record. Also, the Mavs are a phenomenal 9-0 ATS (and 8-1 SU) in Sunday games this season! Could an outright upset be in the offing here? The Bucks are just 2-5 SU (and an ugly 1-6 ATS) in Sunday games this season. Milwaukee also is only 16-25 ATS in their games against teams with a losing record this season. Additionally, the Bucks are 6-16 ATS in recent season (and 52-93 ATS long-term) when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more. Grab the points! 10* MILWAUKEE plus the points Sunday. |
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04-02-17 | Hornets v. Thunder OVER 214 | 113-101 | Push | 0 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Sunday 8* OVER the total in Oklahoma City Thunder vs Charlotte Hornets @ 3:05 ET - This total opened up at a 216.5 and has dropped to as low as a 213.5 as of early game day morning. I see value with the over in this one as I don't see the Thunder slowing down Kemba Walker but I also doubt the Hornets are going to be able to stop Russell Westbrook. Couple that with the fact that both these teams are fighting for playoff reasons - Charlotte just hoping to get in and Oklahoma City trying to remain 6th seed in west - and you have a match-up that should lead to a fast-paced affair. The Thunder will dictate the tempo at home and, after a bad finish (41 points in 2nd half) against the Spurs Friday night, there is now doubt that OKC will keep the "pedal to the metal" throughout this game in terms of the pace. Thunder games in April have gone over the total in 13 of 20 the past 2 seasons. The Hornets enter this game having gone over the total in 6 straight games! These last 6 games have been part of a 6-2 stretch for Charlotte so they are unlikely to change what's been working for them. In other words, look for the high-scoring games to continue! The over is 6-3 this season in Hornets games against Northwest Division opponents and the last time these teams met they totaled 235 points in early January. More of the same today. 8* OVER the total in Oklahoma City Sunday. |
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04-01-17 | Oregon v. North Carolina -4.5 | Top | 76-77 | Loss | -118 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Saturday 10* Top Play North Carolina Tar Heels (-) vs Oregon Ducks @ 8:35 ET - Off of a blowout win versus Kansas where everything seemed to fall into place for the Ducks, it is the perfect time to fade them. Lets not forget Oregon won their three prior games in the tourney as follows: Faced a weak MAAC team (Iona) in the opener, beat Rhode Island by only 3 as 4.5 point choice, and rallied late to beat Michigan by a single point. Give credit to the Ducks for their hard work and effort but they now face their first truly tough test of the tourney as they face a North Carolina team that has a ton of experience in situations like this. The Tar Heels have faced a tougher schedule than the Ducks this season and UNC just beat a very strong Kentucky team. I know I was in the minority on this but I had the Wildcats winning the whole thing this season. Would not have surprised me in the least. The key to the value here is the Tar Heels beat the Wildcats despite making only 3 of 20 three pointers and they also had some issues with turnovers. In Oregon's win over the Jayhawks the Ducks knocked down 11 threes while Kansas made only 5 of 25 from downtown. So Oregon outscored Kansas by 18 points from downtown while UNC got outscored by 12 points from three point land yet both are off of wins. By taking the 3's out of the equation the Tar Heels would have beat Kentucky by 14 while the Ducks would have lost to Kansas by 4. I don't expect UNC to again shoot so poorly from three point land and the Ducks hot shooting is unlikely to continue as the long layoff between games doesn't help. Also, prior to the Wildcats hitting 36.8% of their threes against UNC, the Tar Heels had held 6 of their last 10 opponents under 29.3% from three point land. The Heels are 5-2 ATS as a neutral court fave of 3.5 to 6 points. The Ducks are 2-10 ATS long-term in neutral court games with a posted total in the 150 to 154.5 range. 10* NORTH CAROLINA |
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04-01-17 | South Carolina v. Gonzaga OVER 138 | 73-77 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Saturday 8* OVER the total in Gonzaga Bulldogs vs South Carolina Gamecocks @ 6:05 ET - I used the over in the Gonzaga game last weekend and was dealt a tough beat to say the least. The total on the game was in the 145 range and the Bulldogs combined with Xavier for 88 points at halftime. In other words, the game was on pace for 176 points but inexplicably ended up totaling 142 points. We'll get some payback here because even though both these teams can play some defense, the real reason the Gamecocks have made it this far in the tourney is the fact that their offense has started to function at a very high level. The over is 3-1 in South Carolina's four games in the Big Dance as they've averaged scoring 82 points per game and they've shot around 48% from the field in these 4 games! Though known for defense, the Gamecocks have allowed 70 points or more in 3 of their last 4 games and they'll have their hands full with Gonzaga here. The Zags average 83 points per game on the season and, after hanging 83 points on the Musketeers, their offense is heating up again. Shooting percentages from three point land for the Bulldogs have gone from below 27% in their first two games of the tourney to 40% and 50%, respectively, in their two most recent tourney games. The over is a long-term 10-4 in Gonzaga's games against SEC competition and the Bulldogs are also 18-6 to the over in neutral court games with a posted total in the 135 to 139.5 range. As for the Gamecocks, their last 10 games against teams that average 77 points or more per game have seen 7 of the 10 result in an over. In other words, South Carolina's defense is good but, in case of strength on strength, they've been overpowered at times. Look for both teams to score very well here. 8* OVER the total in Gonzaga |
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04-01-17 | Hawks +4.5 v. Bulls | Top | 104-106 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
NBA TV Blowout ATS Rout - Rickenbach NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks (+) @ Chicago Bulls @ 5:05 ET - The Bulls are still fighting for a playoff spot but the Hawks haven't clinched theirs either. That said, I am backing an Atlanta team that is rejuvenated and got a little bit of their swagger back thanks to back to back wins. Yes, it is true that the wins came against bad teams (Suns and Sixers) but sometimes that's all it takes for a team to get back into rhythm. Keep in mind, the Bulls are off of back to back wins but, prior to that had been struggling just like the Hawks had. Also, Chicago's most recent win was a big one as they knocked off the defending champs (and division rival) Cavaliers. When off of an upset win as an underdog the Bulls have gone 7-12 SU this season and 16-28 ATS the L3 seasons combined. Even though Chicago is playing this game with home loss revenge the Bulls have gone 4-8 ATS (and 3-9 SU) this season when they are looking to avenge a home defeat. Against southeast division opponents the last 3 seasons Chicago is a combined 17-35 ATS. The Hawks are 10-4 ATS against central division opponents this season and, even though they come into this game with their offense still struggling a bit, Atlanta has been very impressive on the defensive end. The Hawks have held teams to a combined 41% from the field in their last 6 games! By comparison, the Bulls haven't held a team below 44% in any of their past 5 games. Don't be surprised if this is an upset win but certainly I am grabbing the generous points available in this one. 10* ATLANTA |
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04-01-17 | Lakers +14.5 v. Clippers | 104-115 | Win | 100 | 5 h 13 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Saturday 8* Los Angeles Lakers (+) @ Los Angeles Clippers @ 3:35 ET - When you have the worst record in your conference and the season is almost over, there are very few games that will motivate you. That is why when motivation does come up it is very often a very strong "play on" situation as the team very often will have plenty of mental energy for the game and will outwork their unsuspecting foe. That is is the case here with the Lakers as their face their LA rivals one last time for the season. Keep in mind the Lakers have been the "punching bag" of the Clips for some time now in recent seasons but they did get an upset win over the Clippers on Christmas Day. Since then though, the Lakers lost twice to the Clippers and a little payback is on order here. Now I am certainly not saying the Lakers are going to upset the Clips here but the generous points should be plenty for us to get the cover in a game that is likely to be decided by single digits. Tough spot for the Clippers here as they are playing their 3rd game in 4 days. Also, what has been unimpressive about the Clips recently is that their defense has allowed 49.4% shooting from the field in their last 3 games. Now they face a Lakers team that has knocked down at least 46.7% from the field in 5 of their last 6 games. In 3 of those 5 solid shooting efforts the Lakers shot better than 50.5% from the field. With their shots continuing to fall and the Clippers guilty of being lackadaisical on defense once again (who can blame them for being disinterested in this one), look for the Lakers to hang around in this game. The Clips are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with a losing record while the Lakers are going to go all out in one of their last games of the season that really carries much meaning for them. The early start likely to make it that much more difficult for the Clips to pull away in a game that is their 3rd in 4 days. 8* LOS ANGELES LAKERS |
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03-31-17 | St. Peter's v. Texas A&M Corpus Christi +4.5 | Top | 62-61 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Friday 10* Top Play Texas A & M Corpus Christi Islanders (+) vs Saint Peter's Peacocks @ 9 ET - As I wrote in my selection involving the Islanders Wednesday over Maryland - Baltimore County and the "funny line", the reality is that TXAMCC is the better team. I respect UMBC especially their star guard but the Islanders have a little better inside-out game going with their two top scorers and I look for that to be a difference maker here. Also, the Isles have held 5 of their last 6 opponents under 42.5% from the field. This is in stark contrast to a UMBC team that has allowed 13 of their last 17 opponents to hit over 45% from the field. Defense and, in my opinion, a little better balanced offense, will prove to be the difference makers in this one. Now, St Peter's certainly has better numbers on defense in comparison with UMBC. However, prior to an ugly 49-44 win over Texas State where the Peacocks made just 31.8% of their shots from the field, their defense in their two previous games away from home saw them allow over 45.6% from the field in each game. Overall, in 3 of their last 4 games, St Peter's has allowed over 34.7% from three point land. Texas A & M Corpus Christi is 16-1 at home this season and 41-6 at home the last 3 seasons combined. Those are SU records and I love the fact that his line opened up at St Peter's -1.5 but the Peacocks already are up to a 4.5 point choice in this game as of early gameday morning. Even though St Peter's just throttled Furman Wednesday, the Paladins were without their head coach as he abruptly took another job over the weekend and that threw the team into disarray. Give the Peacocks credit for taking advantage of Furman's bad situation but St Peter's now face an Islanders team that seems to be a team of destiny in this tournament. The Isles have won their last 4 games by an average margin of 15 points per game even though they were a dog in 3 of those games and only a 2 point fave in the other. Their peeking at the right time and have the right mix of guys (and leadership) to take home the prize tonight. That said, I'll gladly grab the line value with the points being offered here. The Peacocks have gone 22-27 on the road the L3 seasons combined. Look for the Islanders to finish the season 17-1 at home but grab the available points. The Isles only have one loss by more than 3 points in the last 2 months! 10* TEXAS A & M CORPUS CHRISTI |
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03-31-17 | Pistons +10 v. Bucks | Top | 105-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
Rickenbach Friday NBA 10* Top Play Detroit Pistons (+) @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 8:05 ET - The Pistons, though their playoff hopes are slim, certainly aren't going to quit on the season as long as they still have a mathematical shot at the post-season. That said, last night's win (albeit a non-cover) was a big one for Detroit and they aren't going to slow down tonight. Couple that with the fact that this line has been consistently moving up since it first came out (we're now getting double digits with the Pistons) and you have a great value spot for a big dog play. Detroit has lost their last two games against the Bucks by a combined 38 points so revenge is on order here. Even though this is a 4th game in 5 nights situation for the Pistons they can worry about rest later. They have 4 days off coming up after tonight's game and they know this game is basically their season when it comes to playoff chances. That said, this can't be looked at as a "normal" 4 games in 5 nights situation. When teams playoff hopes are on the line this isn't treated in the same way as a "4th in 5" situation played in December or January, as an example. Also, as hot as the Bucks have been they've not made a good home favorite when in this price range. In fact, Milwaukee is 1-8 ATS their last 9 home games where they are favored by more than 4 points. Look for the Bucks to drop to 5-12 ATS in Friday games this season as the division rival Pistons come into this game with their season on line and knowing they don't play again until Wednesday. It's now or never for the hungry road dog in this one. 10* DETROIT |
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03-31-17 | 76ers v. Cavs OVER 217 | 105-122 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA Friday 8* OVER the total in Cleveland Cavaliers vs Philadelphia 76'ers @ 7:35 ET - The regular season in NBA is almost over. The Cavaliers started the season with 3 straight unders. Since those early results 5 months ago, the Cavs have had only one other stretch this entire season where they've had 3 straight unders. Cleveland enters this game off back to back unders and, as you can see from the above, the strong odds are that they snap the streak and an over results tonight. The Cavaliers will be fired up as they are off of an upset loss as a favorite and that is a situation that has seen them go 10-5 to the over this season. Also, the Cavs have lost 3 straight games and that's only happened 3 other times this season and every single time Cleveland has won their next game and every single time it went over the total. Look for that 3-0 mark to the over to improve to 4-0 tonight as the Cavaliers are fired up and will take advantage of one of the weaker defensive teams in the league. The Sixers particularly struggle with their D on the road as they've allowed an average of 110 points per game away from home this season. In this spot, given the situation, look for the Cavs to put up about 120 and if the odds makers are right about the spread, that makes this a 120-110 type game that easily flies over the number. The Cavs have averaged 119 points per game this season when they are off of 3 straight losses so getting to 120 or more (especially considering it's Philly they're facing) is certainly very attainable. The over is 21-10 the L3 seasons combined when the Cavaliers face a team that allows an average of 106 points or more per game. 8* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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03-31-17 | Nuggets v. Hornets -2 | 114-122 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA Friday 8* Charlotte Hornets (+) vs Denver Nuggets @ 7:05 ET - Though both teams have slim post-season hopes at this point in the season, the key to the value here is the home court factor as well as how each of these teams is current playing. Momentum is certainly on the side of the Hornets who have won 5 of their last 7 games to keep their shot at a playoff berth alive. As for the Nuggets, they are off of a second straight loss and it was of the back-breaker variety at Portland. Denver trails the Blazers in the playoff race at that was a key game and the defeat was the Nuggets 4th in their last 6 games. I expect this to lead to the demise of Denver down the stretch run as that demoralizing loss really took a lot out of this Nuggets team. Charlotte won in Colorado earlier this month and now I expect them to again come up big here at home as the Hornets improve to 7-2 ATS against Northwest Division opponents this season. As for the Nuggets, though they play this game with home loss revenge, they are only 5-10 ATS (and an awful 2-13 SU) when playing with home loss revenge this season! 8* CHARLOTTE |
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03-31-17 | Coastal Carolina +8.5 v. Wyoming | 59-83 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Friday 8* Coastal Carolina Chanticleers @ Wyoming Cowboys @ 7 ET - I went with the Cowboys in Game 2 of this series and, as expected, the Chanticleers had trouble adjusting their game in Wyoming. Coastal Carolina shot very poorly and also got out-hustled as the Cowboys were very hungry after losing Game 1. Now, in the winner takes all Game 3, look for the Chanticleers to play much better as they have adjusted to playing here. I am not saying their going to win the championship but I am saying they should stay easily inside this inflated number. Keep in mind, so far in this series the Chanticleers have taken 21 more field goal attempts than the Cowboys. Simply put, Coastal Carolina just needs to shoot better in Game 3 and also rebound better like they did in Game 1. Coastal Carolina does have 10 less turnovers than Wyoming in this series and I look for them to be in Game 3 all the way. Grab the big points! The Chanticleers are 4-0 ATS when revenging a road loss this season. The Cowboys are only 3-3 SU this season when they are off of a game where they allowed 60 points or less. Also, all 3 of those Wyoming wins came by 6 points ore less and the average margin of victory was just 3 points! 8* COASTAL CAROLINA |
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03-30-17 | Georgia Tech +3.5 v. TCU | Top | 56-88 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Thursday 10* Top Play Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+) vs TCU Horned Frogs @ 8 ET - Impressive win for TCU over Central Florida Tuesday. However, prior to that game, the Horned Frogs had allowed opponents to shoot 49% or better from the field in 3 of their last 4 games. By comparison, Georgia Tech's win over Cal State Bakersfield was the 5th straight game (and 10th out of last 13) where the Yellow Jackets have held their opponent under 39.8% from the field. A hard-working hustling team that plays solid defense and is also getting a handful of points in this match-up is absolutely the play here. Georgia Tech is on a 14-3 ATS run in their last 17 games against teams with a winning record. Also, the Yellow Jackets are now 11-4 ATS in March games the past 3 seasons combined. Very well coached and the players have bought into the system at Georgia Tech and their performance on the court has proven that. The Horned Frogs are on a 7-12 ATS run in their last 19 games against teams with a winning record this season and TCU's defense is simply not on par with that of the Yellow Jackets and that will prove to be a big difference maker in this match-up. 10* GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS |
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03-30-17 | Nets v. Pistons -6 | Top | 89-90 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Detroit Pistons (-) vs Brooklyn Nets @ 7:35 ET - The Pistons are on a losing streak but most of those defeats came on enemy hardwood. Detroit did lose their most recent home game but only by a single point to Miami and this is a Pistons team that is still 23-15 in home game this season. Thursday they host Brooklyn and the Nets are an ugly 6-30 on the road this season. We're getting line value here because of Detroit's recent losing streak and the fact that the Nets have played a little better of late. Even with Brooklyn having won 3 of their last 5 games should a team that has won only 16.7% of its road games this season really be only a +6 in this spot. This line was as high as a +7 in some spots yesterday but has come down as of very early Thursday morning and this has led to great line value with the hungry Pistons on their home floor. Detroit has been given a little extra life in terms of their playoff hopes because Indiana has lost two straight games. In other words, the Pistons certainly aren't going to stop fighting at this point and I look for them to get back on track at home in a big way Thursday after the tough one point loss to the Heat Tuesday. Detroit also plays this game with double revenge as they lost both games with the Nets this season but both of those games were in Brooklyn. The home team has now taken 5 of the last 6 meetings between these teams and I expect more of the same here. The average margin of victory in the Pistons victories the last two times they've hosted the Nets was 14 points and I expect a similar result here which is why this play is getting my Top Play rating. Brooklyn is 8-13 ATS when off of an upset loss as a favorite and they just got upset by the 76'ers Tuesday. The Pistons are 8-3 ATS this season when they are on a SU losing streak of 3 games or more and I look for them to "stop the bleeding" in a big way Thursday night. 10* DETROIT PISTONS |
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03-29-17 | Coastal Carolina v. Wyoming -8 | 57-81 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Wednesday 8* Wyoming Cowboys (-) vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers @9 ET - The Chanticleers won game one of this Best out of Three series. Even though guard Shivaughn Wiggins has already missed half the season, there is no doubt that his absence hurts Coastal Carolina's depth and things have gone from bad to worse in the injury department for the Chanticleers. In addition to Wiggins (season-ending knee injury), guard Colton Ray St-Cyr is expected to miss tonight's game and forward Demario Beck is listed as questionable for this match-up at Wyoming. St-Cyr and Beck are both dealing with knee injuries. Depth is important for the Chanticleers as they head to revenge-minded Wyoming for this one and Coastal Carolina just doesn't have it for this one. I expect them to get down by double digits in this one and then, because they know they still have a Game 3 to look forward to, look for the Chanticleers to start to rest up bodies for that game and this one will likely remain a blowout rather than Coastal Carolina inching closer late. Look for the Chanticleers to drop to 1-4 ATS as a road dog of 6.5 to 9 points while the Cowboys improve to 10-0 SU (and 7-3 ATS) in home games where they are a fave of 6.5 to 9 points. When Wyoming is at home off of a loss they have won 7 of 8 games this season and I look for the Cowboys to add another W to that mark Wednesday! 8* WYOMING |
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03-29-17 | Bucks v. Celtics -8 | 103-100 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA Wednesday 8* Boston Celtics (-) vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 7:35 ET - The Bucks are off of a rather "crazy" road win at Charlotte last night as Milwaukee simply shot lights out including hitting a ridiculous percentage of their threes. Note that the Hornets played a clean game with only 4 team turnovers and the Bucks scored just 2 fast break points in the game. In other words Milwaukee certainly wasn't forcing turnovers nor scoring in transition. But the fact is that its hard to lose a game when your team hits 14 of 30 three pointers plus hits 73% from inside the arc and that what Milwaukee did last night. Needless to say everything was falling the Bucks way last night and I feel that Boston may remain a little under-valued tonight as a result. After all, the Celtics are currently holding the top record in the Eastern Conference and they are at home and rested with only a bad Orlando team on deck. Boston has won 7 of its last 8 games and are 11-4 ATS against Central Division opponents this season. The Bucks were on a 3-5 ATS skid before last night's insane shooting performance and Milwaukee had been held under 44.4% from the field in 5 of their last 6 games before the big win at Charlotte yesterday. The Bucks are 4-11 ATS against Atlantic Division opponents this season and I look for Milwaukee to drop to 6-11 ATS on the season when off of a game where they scored 115 points or more. The Celtics have won 3 straight meetings with the Bucks including a blowout win by 15 the last time they hosted Milwaukee. 8* BOSTONÂ |
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03-29-17 | Hornets +6.5 v. Raptors | Top | 110-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Charlotte Hornets (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 7:35 ET - The Hornets are off of a tough home loss to Milwaukee as the Bucks simply shot lights out including hitting a ridiculous percentage of their threes. Charlotte played a clean game with only 4 team turnovers and the Hornets allowed just 2 fast break points. But its hard to win when a team hits 14 of 30 three pointers plus hits 73% from inside the arc. Needless to say everything was falling the Bucks way last night and Charlotte is a little under-valued tonight as a result. The Hornets are trying to stay alive in the playoff race and had won 4 of 5 before last night's disappointing results. Though the Raptors have won 4 of the last 6 meetings between these teams, 3 of the 4 wins came by a margin of 6 points or less. Toronto has allowed 48% shooting from the field in their last 4 home games while the Hornets have allowed 45.5% or less in 3 of their last 4 road games. Over the past 5 weeks Charlotte has gone 6-2 ATS when off of a loss and, coming off of an ATS loss last night, note that only 2 times this entire season have the Hornets failed to cover both games of a back to back situation. Look for the road team to prove to be the hungrier team as Raptors 6 straight wins will have them looking right past the Hornets here. 10* CHARLOTTE |
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03-29-17 | Hawks v. 76ers OVER 208.5 | 99-92 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Philadelphia 76'ers vs Atlanta Hawks @ 7:05 ET - The Hawks have been an under team this season and that includes when they are in the 2nd game of a back to back too. However, Atlanta came into this season having gone 26-14 (65%) to the over when in the 2nd game of a back to back the past two seasons combined and I expect both teams to be relaxed on defense in this one as they are each coming off wins last night. The Sixers are 12-5 to the over when playing the 2nd game of a back to back this season. Also, the 76'ers and Hawks have combined to go over the total in 5 of their last 6 meetings. I am well aware of the fact that Atlanta has been trending under of late but, given the situation here for both clubs, this one should be a wide-open affair with plenty of run and gun. 8* OVER the total in Philadelphia |
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03-28-17 | TCU v. UCF OVER 131.5 | 68-53 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 5 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Tuesday 8* OVER the total in Central Florida Golden Knights vs TCU Horned Frogs @ 9:30 ET - Central Florida is known for their tough defense but, in this NIT Tournament they've had the benefit of facing an Illinois team going through a coaching transition and an MVC team (Illinois State) that was very inconsistent on offense late in the season. Prior to those two wins, the Golden Knights did allow 72 points per game in their games against Colorado and SMU and I would not be surprised to see a similar result tonight. TCU comes into this one rolling with confidence as they've scored 82 points or more in 4 of their last 6 games and that included tight wins over Iowa and Kansas. The issue for the Horned Frogs is their defense and I expect UCF to take advantage. Texas Christian, prior to their 82-68 win over Richmond, had allowed 82 points or more in 3 of their last 4 games. Also, TCU did allow the Spiders to connect on 49% of their shots from the field and, prior to that game, the Frogs had allowed 46.7% or better from three point land in three straight games. In the month of March the Golden Knights have shot the ball very well from beyond the arc so don't be surprised if that becomes a factor in this one as well. Look for the over to improve to 5-0 in TCU's neutral court games this season in what should be a very entertaining match-up at Madison Square Garden in NY, NY tonight. 8* OVER the total in Central Florida |
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03-28-17 | 76ers v. Nets OVER 222 | Top | 106-101 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Brooklyn Nets vs Philadelphia 76'ers @ 7:35 ET - Seriously, is anybody going to play defense in this one? Why bother? Both teams long ago eliminated from post-season contention and now meeting in a meaningless late-season game. Also, both teams have fresh legs as they were off yesterday. The Sixers are allowing 110 points per game in road games this season and the Nets are allowing 113 points per game in all games this season. Even though these teams have had some recent unders heading into this game, the 76'ers have allowed an average of 90 FG attempts per game in their last 3 games and the Nets have allowed an average of 95 field goal attempts per game in their last 4 games. As you can see, neither team has been slowing down the pace nor preventing their opponent from having plenty of scoring opportunities. I look for more of the same tonight and Brooklyn is 16-9 to the over this season in games with a posted total of 220 points or more. Also, the Nets are a long-term 23-13 to the over in games against teams that allow an average of at least 106 points per game. The Sixers just got hammered at Indiana and they are 17-8 to the over this season when off of a loss by 10 points or more. Also, Philadelphia is 13-6 to the over in their last 19 games against teams with a losing record on the season. Look for more of the same tonight. 10* OVER the total in Brooklyn |
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03-28-17 | Bucks v. Hornets -3 | 118-108 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA Tuesday 8* Charlotte Hornets (-) vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 7:05 ET - This seems to be a popular revenge spot but, honestly, does it really matter that Milwaukee has revenge here? The Hornets have won 3 straight times over the Bucks and all 3 of those games were in Milwaukee and the Bucks couldn't get their revenge there either. Milwaukee is on a 3-13 ATS run in games against Southeast Division opponents. Also, the Bucks defense has been on the decline again of late as they've allowed 49% from the field in their last 5 games. The Hornets defense has struggled in their last 2 games but previously had held their opponents under 46% from the field in 8 of their 10 prior games. Charlotte is off of a big win over Phoenix, scoring 120 in the victory, and they are a stellar 8-3 ATS this season when off of a game where they scored 115 points or more. Though the Hornets playoff chances are slim, they're not dead yet and I look for them to improve to 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games with a big home win here. 8* CHARLOTTE |
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03-28-17 | Wolves +4.5 v. Pacers | 115-114 | Win | 100 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA Tuesday 8* Minnesota Timberwolves (+) @ Indiana Pacers @ 7:05 ET - From late January through early February, the Pacers were hot and won 7 straight games. However, from then until March 24th, Indiana lost 14 of 21 games! Now, coming off of another rare win (albeit against the lowly Sixers), the Pacers appear to be in the perfect spot to fade them! This is a team that hasn't won back to back games in 7 WEEKS! They are laying a short number here but don't be fooled. The road team has covered each of the last 5 meetings between these teams. The Timberwolves do come into this one on a losing streak (6 games both SU and ATS) but they are looking to avenge a home loss to the Pacers in January and Minnesota is 47-33 ATS when playing with home loss revenge. Indiana is 7-11 ATS this season when off of a win by a double digit margin. Also, the Pacers are an ugly 15-24 ATS when facing teams with a losing record this season. The Indiana bench has been thinned with Robinson and Jefferson out plus Stuckey unlikely to play tonight. With the Pacers playing again tomorrow night and this being part of a stretch of 7 games in 11 days for Indiana, I look for the Timberwolves to wear them down in this one. 8* MINNESOTA |
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03-28-17 | CS Bakersfield +2.5 v. Georgia Tech | 61-76 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Tuesday 8* Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners (+) vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ 7 ET - Out of the NIT Final Four teams it is Bakersfield that is the most obscure. The other semi-final game matches up TCU and Central Florida and certainly everyone is familiar with Georgia Tech as well. The key though is that sometimes the least known commodity is the strongest commodity and I believe that is precisely the case here with the Roadrunners. Cal State Bakersfield has the highest RPI of the 4 remaining teams in the NIT Tournament. Also, the Runners are the only team remaining that has the same coach, Rod Barnes, that they had last season. There is some continuity here with the Bakersfield program that the other teams are still trying to build up to. Barnes is in his 6th season with the Roadrunners and the veteran coach has led Cal State Bakersfield to a combined 49-17 record the past two seasons. The Runners are surging in this tournament with three straight road wins to get to this huge opportunity at Madison Square Garden in New York. While the Yellow Jackets have also been impressive in getting here (I used them at Ole Miss in their most recent game), Georgia Tech had 2 home games in the NIT before having to face the Rebels on the road. Also, the three teams that the Jackets faced to get to this point are all weak defensive teams. That helped the Yellow Jackets offense get back on track but they now face a stout defense and I do not expect this to go well for Georgia Tech. Look for the Jackets long-term scoring problems to resume here as Bakersfield has held 6 of its last 7 opponents to 35.5% or less from the field. The Roadrunners are 9-3 ATS in neutral court games while GT is 4-8 ATS (and SU) in neutral court games where they are a fave of 3 points or less. 8* CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD |
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03-27-17 | Cavs +5 v. Spurs | Top | 74-103 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
TNT Blowout ATS Rout - Rickenbach NBA Monday 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (+) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 8 ET - The Cavaliers seek revenge for a home loss to the Spurs two months ago. Cleveland comes into this game off of a home loss to Washington. That is significant because the regular season is almost over and yet there have been only 4 times this entire season that the Cavaliers have had a losing streak of 2 games or more. In other words, look for the Cavs to respond here. Cleveland was off yesterday and they have two days off after tonight's game so you can bet that LeBron James and company are going to go 'all out' in terms of the effort for tonight's revenge game. Though the Spurs certainly won't overlook the Cavs, San Antonio does have big games against Western Conference foes Golden State, Oklahoma City, Utah and Memphis on deck. The Warriors are up next on Wednesday and the Spurs are still hopeful of catching them for the #1 seeding in the West so that is a huge game. San Antonio has been hot but, keep in mind, they are only 11-18 ATS this season when they enter a match-up on a winning streak of 3 games or more. The Cavs are 8-3 SU this season when off of a loss by a margin of 10 points or more. The Cavaliers are also 61-31 SU the last 3 seasons combined when they are playing with revenge. I won't be surprised if they get the upset win on the road here and they are 37-18 SU when off of an upset loss as a favorite. That said, after the loss to the Wizards, look for the Cavs to bounce back here. Grab the points for the added "insurance" as I don't see the Spurs winning this by more than one possession if they even win it all! 10* CLEVELAND |
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03-27-17 | Magic v. Raptors OVER 206 | 112-131 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Monday 8* OVER the total in Toronto Raptors vs Orlando Magic @ 7:35 ET - The Raptors are off back to back unders where they held their opponent under 100 points in each game. That is significant because it has only happened 7 other times this season and each time it happened the next game went over the total. Not only is this a 7-0 situation to the over but the games have blasted past the O/U with an average of 224 points scored. Orlando comes into this game well-rested as they have been off since Friday and that is significant because the Magic are 7-2 to the over this season when playing with 2 days of rest between games. Even though Orlando held Detroit to 87 points Friday, a repeat of that feat is unlikely here. That's because, prior to that game, the Magic allowed 114.3 points per game in their last 7 games. As for the Orlando offensive production, they have scored 102 points or more in 6 of their last 7 games. Look for another solid shooting performance from the Magic here but they are unlikely to slow down a Raptors offense that averages 111 points per game when at home this season. 8* OVER the total in Toronto |
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03-27-17 | Wyoming -110 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 81-91 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
CBI Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Monday 10* Top Play Wyoming Cowboys (-) @ Coastal Carolina Chanticleers @ 7:30 ET - This is the first game of a best out of three series that will crown the CBI champion for 2017. With Coastal Carolina at home for the opening game, we are able to get line value with Wyoming as we can get them at a pick'em price in this one. The Cowboys are only 3-9 SU in true road games this season but they've played tougher competition than the Chanticleers have. The fact that Wyoming is 8-4 ATS in true road games this season shows that they have played up to the level of competition. Even though Allen Edwards is a new head coach with the Cowboys, Wyoming truly "didn't miss a beat" this season as he had already been on the staff the past 5 seasons as an assistant. Edwards is a solid basketball mind and has proven the team has bought into this methods as they've caught fire at the right time. The Cowboys have won three straight games and covered 7 of their last 8 games and they've shot 49% or better in 5 of their last 7 games. Wyoming also has held their last two opponents under 37% from the field. The Chanticleers had been playing good defense but they took a step up in competition when they faced Loyola Chicago last week and, though they won that game, they allowed the Ramblers to hit 50% from the field. Also, let's not forget that Coastal Carolina got obliterated by UT-Arlington 74-51 in the conference tourney. The Cowboys are 13-3 SU (and 11-3 ATS) in non-conference games this season and Coastal Carolina only went 8-14 SU this season against teams with a winning record while the Cowboys went 15-5 ATS! 10* WYOMING |
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03-26-17 | Pelicans v. Nuggets -5 | Top | 115-90 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
No Doubt Blowout Rout - Rickenbach NBA Sunday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (-) vs New Orleans Pelicans @ 8:05 ET - Some teams handle playoff pressure well and others handle it poorly. This season, the Nuggets certainly fall into the first category! Denver has won 6 of its last 8 games as they look to secure a post-season berth in the West and the Nuggets have also been a covering machine as they are on a 11-4 ATS run their last 15 games. Look for Denver to take advantage here of facing a Pelicans team that is in a tough scheduling spot. While the Nuggets are fully focused on this game as it is their only home game between March 22nd and April 7th, New Orleans is in a much different situation here. The Pelicans are off of a divisional loss (at Houston) Friday and they have a game at Utah tomorrow night. So New Orleans is in the midst of a 3 games in 4 night stretch and tonight's game and tomorrow's game are both played in high altitude. In other words, rather than gasping for air tonight as the game goes on, if the Pelicans are down big the smarter thing to do is to conserve energy and save it for tomorrow night's game at Utah. I just don't see the Pelicans staying within the rather small number here given the situation. Keep in mind, New Orleans is going to have to "run and gun" to keep up with the Nuggets here and the Pelicans are 2-6 SU their last 8 road games with a posted total of 220 points or more while Denver is 11-6 SU (and ATS) in home games with a posted total of 220 points or more. The Pelicans have lost 4 of their last 6 road games and are also 5-9 SU (and ATS) when off of a divisional game this season. The Nuggets are on an 11-4 ATS run in games against teams with a losing record and will take advantage of facing a Pelicans team that has gone just 11-24 SU on the road this season. 10* DENVER |
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03-26-17 | 76ers +8.5 v. Pacers | 94-107 | Loss | -101 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Sunday 8* Philadelphia 76'ers (+) @ Indiana Pacers @ 6:05 ET - The 76'ers are on an incredible 17-4 ATS run after a big upset win at Chicago Friday. While the first though would be to fade Philadelphia off of an upset win like that, the Sixers have proven time and time again this season that you simply should not fade them in a spot like this! Philly is 18-7 ATS off of an upset win as an underdog this season. Also, the 76'ers are 5-1 (ATS and SU!) when off of a win by a double digit margin this season and 9-2 ATS when they are off of a game where they scored 115 points or more. While Philly is playing loose and relaxed at this late juncture of the season, the Pacers have been feeling the pressures of playoff positioning. Indiana is an ugly 7-14 SU their last 21 games! Also, the Pacers come into this game on a 2-6 ATS run and they'll be doing good just to win this game let alone cover the spread! Versus teams that allow 106 points or more on the season, Indiana has gone 8-18 ATS. Also, the Pacers are an ugly 4-10 ATS in games against the Atlantic Division this season. Wins have been few and far between for Indiana for quite some time now and, in the entire month of March, the Pacers have had just 2 wins of more than 7 points. That said, I like my chances with the Sixers continuing to relish their underdog role and the opportunity to play spoiler. The 76'ers should again be in this one all the way! 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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03-26-17 | Kentucky v. North Carolina UNDER 160 | Top | 73-75 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
Total of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Sunday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in North Carolina Tar Heels vs Kentucky Wildcats @ 5:05 ET - When these teams met in December it was a highly anticipated match-up of two ranked foes that each had one loss on the season. That said, the impetus was not there for playing a lot of defense. Sure, both teams wanted to win but it wasn't a situation where the loser goes home and the winner goes to the Final Four and has a shot at the national championship. That said, look for this game to play out much differently than the 103-100 wild game that was played at a neutral site earlier this season. The Wildcats have really turned up the defensive intensity to get to this point but did not fare well defensively against UCLA and yet still held the high-flying Bruins to 75 points. Prior to that game, Kentucky had allowed 67 points or less in 9 of their last 12 games. Also, the Wildcats had held 7 of their 9 prior opponents under 41.9% from the field. The under is now 8-1 in Kentucky's last 9 NCAA Tournament games and the Wildcats are on an incredible streak this season of 9 straight unders when facing a team that averages 77 points or more per game! Long-term, when UK is a neutral court dog of 3 points or less, the under has gone 10-2. This will be a fierce battle with a lot more defense than was seen when these teams met 3 months ago! North Carolina, of course, wants revenge for that defeat and the under is 3-1 this season when UNC is playing with road loss revenge. Also, when off of a game where they scored 80 points or more, the Tar Heels have gone 16-7 to the under this season. Before allowing 80 points to Butler, the Heels had held 7 of their last 9 opponents to 67 points or less. Both teams will be feeling the pressure here and shots won't be falling nearly as easily as they did in the first meeting this season. The first game was about bragging rights while this match-up is about a shot at a national championship. You'll see the difference on the floor in this one and I see this game landing in the 140s which makes this total (opened up at 156 but now in the 160 range) a great value for us. 10* UNDER the total in North Carolina |
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03-26-17 | Thunder v. Rockets OVER 231.5 | Top | 125-137 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
TV Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Rockets vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 3:35 ET - The very first numbers that popped up on this total were 235. Of course the markets couldn't believe what they saw and it has already been bet down to a 231.5 but I am here to tell you...believe it! The huge total posted here is absolutely justified. Oklahoma City is red hot on offense right now and has shot 50% or better from the field in 6 of its last 8 games. The Thunder scored 122 against Philly Wednesday and, in their two prior road games, OKC exploded for at least 122 points in each game! The Rockets, of course, are one of the top scoring teams in the league and they are certainly not known for their focus on defense. With a huge game on deck with Golden State this certainly doesn't look like a spot for anything to change for Houston. They'll continue to play their all O / no D style and that means both teams are likely to get to at least 120 in this one in what should be a highly entertaining game with a ton of points. The Rockets are averaging 120 points over their last 14 games but they've also allowed 114 points per game in their last 8 games. The over is 10-4 this season (and 33-17 the L3 seasons) in Rockets games against Northwest Division opponents. Oklahoma City's last two visits to face the Rockets have both gone over the total and I expect another one here as this one is all about the "run and gun" offensive efficiency of each team. 10* OVER the total in Houston |
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03-26-17 | South Carolina v. Florida -3.5 | Top | 77-70 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Saturday 10* Top Play Florida Gators (-) vs South Carolina Gamecocks - These teams split their two regular season meetings but the game that the Gamecocks won at home saw the Gators go 0 for 17 from three point land. Of course that is not going to happen again here and South Carolina only won that game by 4 points despite that ridiculous result from beyond the arc for Florida. The Gators got revenge with a home win by 15 points and I like Florida's chances of another big win here. The Gamecocks are here because they faced a "no defense, no rebounding" Marquette team early on in the tourney and then, later on, a Baylor team that was known for choking in big games this season. Certainly South Carolina still deserves credit for being here and for knocking off Duke. However, any team can occasionally really rise up for one big game and get the big upset win. It happens. What I see in the Gamecocks though is a team that had lost 6 of 9 games and gone 1-9 ATS in its 10 games prior to the Big Dance. What I see in the Gators is a strong, consistent team that played a tougher schedule than South Carolina this season and that has won 13 of its last 16 games and covered 11 of those 16 games! The Gamecocks are 23-36 ATS against SEC foes the last 3 seasons combined and, though they have road loss revenge here, they are 0-2 ATS in that situation this season. The Gators have struggled in the underdog role this season but they are 19-8 ATS as a favorite this season and they get the job done again on Sunday! 10* FLORIDA |
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03-26-17 | Nets +7 v. Hawks | 107-92 | Win | 100 | 4 h 26 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Sunday 8* Brooklyn Nets (+) @ Atlanta Hawks @ 1:05 ET - The Hawks will most assuredly be a "public play" here and, as long-time followers know, I love to fade the "popular" choice. The key here is this line just "jumped off the page" today because when you see a playoff-caliber team with a winning record at home and facing a team that is 42 games under .500 (Nets are 15-57) and yet only laying 6.5 points you have to wonder what is going on. I can tell you what is going on though! The Hawks are in a massive funk and feeling the pressure of really taking a plunge in the playoff picture. That is why Atlanta has been shooting poorly and they've now lost 6 straight games. Here they are hosting a Brooklyn team that has not had to worry about the post-season for a long time and they are simply playing loose and relaxed basketball. Though they lost at Washington Friday, the Nets did shoot 52.4% from the field and they also shot well it was just a 5 point loss here at Atlanta less than 3 weeks ago and that was back when the Hawks were playing a little better. Now Brooklyn can take advantage of a slumping Hawks team that just got back from a road trip and is 1-4 (SU and ATS) this season when they enter a game having played each of their three prior games on the road. Keep in mind, the Nets had covered 8 of their last 10 games prior to the ugly loss to the Wizards. They'll bounce back here against a floundering Atlanta team. 8* BROOKLYN |
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