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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-02-16 | Thunder +8 v. Spurs | Top | 98-97 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Oklahoma City Thunder +8 @ San Antonio @ 9:35 ET - After getting completely steamrolled by the Spurs in Game One, I expect a huge response from the Thunder in Game Two. San Antonio simply could not miss on Saturday as the Spurs were simply on fire from the floor. The game was decided by halftime and the Thunder are fully prepared to respond in Game Two. You can bet (literally) that the Spurs won't again shoot 61% from the floor and 60% from three point land. It was simply "one of those nights" and, not to take anything away from the Spurs, the Thunder are not that "bad" of a team. In fact, when off of a loss by a margin of 10 points or more, Oklahoma City has gone 4-1 SU this season. After allowing 105 points or more this season, the Thunder have gone 25-10 SU. Now, I am certainly not saying that I expect the Thunder to win this game outright as, let's not forget, the Spurs have gone an insane 43-1 at home this season. But, what I am saying is that I expect this game to be decided by no more than a couple buckets. It wasn't like the Thunder had a problem with rebounding or turning the ball over too much in Game One. Again, it was just "one of those nights" and Westbrook, Durant, Ibaka and company will be ready to respond big tonight. Getting off to a great start and keeping the wild San Antonio crowd from getting so raucous early will key what I expect to be a tight, back and forth game tonight. Coach Donovan is a great coach and he will make adjustments for Game Two. When leading in a playoff series the Spurs have gone 10-8 SU and 9-9 ATS the past three seasons combined. When trailing in a playoff series the Thunder have gone 5-2 SU and 4-2-1 ATS the past three seasons. The Spurs are expected to ultimately prevail in this series but it's far from over yet and the Thunder should give one of their best efforts of the entire season tonight after the ridiculous way Game One played out. *10* OKLAHOMA CITY |
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05-02-16 | Hawks +8 v. Cavs | 93-104 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* Atlanta Hawks +8 @ Cleveland @ 7:05 ET - The Cavaliers demolished the Hawks in last year's post-season and that is what is still fresh in everyone's minds. The key to things being different this spring is the Hawks stellar defense as they have been a top defensive team that came on very strong at the end of the season as well. The key to things being particularly different in Game One of this second round series is that the Cavaliers are off of a long layoff. The Cavs swept Detroit in round one and so LeBron James and Company have had a full week off heading into this Monday game. No matter how much you practice or simulate games there is no such thing that compares to the actual game and Cleveland, as a result, is very likely to have some rust here in Game One. Rust won't be an issue for the Hawks as they wrapped up their series with the Celtics on Thursday. Atlanta got a big road win at Boston to wrap up that series and having 3 days off coming into this series is perfect for the Hawks. It's enough time to rest but it's not so much time off that it becomes an issue of losing your rhythm. The latter of which is absolutely what I expect to see happen for Cleveland here in Game One. The Hawks fantastic defense has held 9 of their last 15 opponents under 39.9% from the field! This is quite a contrast in comparison with Cleveland who has allowed 8 consecutive opponents to hit at least 43.5% from the field. Look for the Hawks to be confident on the road here after the big road win at Boston to finish up that series. Atlanta is 51-29 ATS the past three seasons when they are off of a win by a margin of 10 points or more. As for the Cavaliers, they are 9-19 ATS this season when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more. Cleveland may manage to get the home win here but if they do, it is likely to be by a very slim margin as the Hawks have the scheduling edge here and want to prove they are not the same team that the Cavaliers so easily dispatched of last season. *8* ATLANTA |
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05-01-16 | Pacers +5.5 v. Raptors | Top | 84-89 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Indiana Pacers +6 @ Toronto @ 8:05 ET - Forget pointspreads for a minute...let's just talk about some straight-up numbers in this one. The Pacers have won 2 of the last 3 games. They won 2 of the 3 games in Indiana and one could also argue that they should have won 2 of the 3 games in Toronto. Remember the Pacers blew Game 5 here in Toronto as they had a big double digit lead going to the 4th quarter. Indiana showed their resolve and bounced back by getting the home win in Game 6 so that they could force this Game 7. The value that gives us here is that the Pacers have the momentum in the series, they have the confidence of knowing they can win at Toronto (won one here but should have won two), and they've got the psychological factor working in their favor too as the Raptors have such a negative stigma about failing in the playoffs including in Game Sevens on their home floor. Now, all of the above said, this should be simply a fantastic game where it would not surprise if Indiana is the team that ends up advancing. That said, in a series where home court has really proven to not be that big of a deal, if you're going to give me the team with the momentum, the better frame of mind (postseason failures in Toronto's mind), and you're going to give me a half dozen points too...I am going to jump all over that anytime! That is why this is a top play as I look for Paul George to come up huge once again for the Pacers. Indiana is now 8-5 ATS in first round playoff games while the Raptors are 4-12 ATS in first round playoff games the past three seasons. Toronto will be feeling the pressure just win this game...let alone get the cover. I look for a Pacers upset but will grab all the available points in this one. *10* INDIANAÂ |
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05-01-16 | Blazers +9.5 v. Warriors | 106-118 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* Portland Trail Blazers +9.5 @ Golden State @ 3:35 ET - Of course it's hard to fade the Warriors when they are hot as they have been but there are a couple of key factors that lead to great value here. One of course is the fact that Stephen Curry is out for Golden State in game one. The other, and perhaps most important, is that the Warriors go from facing a dysfunctional Rockets team to a Trail Blazers team playing with plenty of heart and confidence. Of course the Blazers were able to take advantage of Clippers injuries as the series went on but there is no questioning the fact that the makeup of this team is much different than that of the Rockets team that the Warriors so easily disposed of. This has led to fantastic line value for the underdog Blazers in this one as they have the talented backcourt to match-up well with Golden State on the perimeter (especially in a game where Curry is out). For comparison's sake just look at what Portland did to the Clippers after Chris Paul went out (yes I know Blake Griffin got hurt too but he was out for significant time anyway recently) and compare this with how the Rockets performed against the Warriors after Curry got hurt before half of Game 4. The point is that Golden State, sans Curry, is in for a much bigger challenge here than they got from the Warriors. Big dog value in this one. *8* PORTLAND |
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04-30-16 | Thunder +6.5 v. Spurs | Top | 92-124 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Oklahoma City Thunder +6.5 @ San Antonio @ 8:35 ET - The Spurs are 42-1 at home this season and only laying 6.5 points here so they must be the play here, right? Not likely although that is precisely what the odds maker is banking on here to balance the action as, in my opinion, the smart money comes in on the Thunder in this one. Oklahoma City is one of the few teams that has proven to be a tough match-up for the Spurs in recent meetings. The Thunder covered all 4 games with the Spurs this season and though the Spurs won the two home games they were both tight victories. Oklahoma City's tandem of Westbrook and Durant, when healthy, are capable of terrorizing opponents. They come into this series well-rested after easily dismantling the injury-depleted Mavericks. The Spurs also are well rested after easily crushing the even moreso injury-ravaged Grizzlies. The fact that San Antonio wasn't even tested in the first round could be bad news here as they just really faced no adversity and were never challenged because Memphis was so short-handed. At least the Thunder had the 'excitement' of losing game two on their home floor. Oklahoma City responded by winning 3 straight games by an average margin of 18 points per victory to dispatch of Dallas. The Thunder went 7-2 ATS in Saturday games this season and are 16-6 ATS in Saturday games the past three seasons combined. Of course this match-up is billed as offense (OKC) versus defense (SA) and that may not bode well for the Spurs (at least at the betting window) as San Antonio has gone 14-21 ATS in their last 35 games against teams averaging 99 points or more per game on the season. The Spurs take such a huge jump up from facing the injury-ravaged Grizzlies to the fully healthy (and ultra talented) Thunder that I would not be surprised to see a Game One upset. At the very least, look for the road dog cover in this one. *10* OKLAHOMA CITY |
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04-29-16 | Heat v. Hornets OVER 190 | Top | 97-90 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play OVER 189 in Charlotte vs Miami @ 8:05 ET - There have been 3 straight unders in this series as the Hornets have stifled the Heat ever since Miami got the two big home wins to open up this series. Even though Game 6 is in Charlotte, it's do or die for the Heat and they know they have to push the offense tonight or their season is over. Why is the offense so critical to Miami? Because the Heat have learned the hard way that they are not going to win a knockdown dragout slugfest with the Hornets. The tighter low-scoring games are favoring Charlotte and the Heat must do something about it tonight. Give credit to the Charlotte defense but also it is a fact that Miami has missed plenty of open looks and easy buckets in the last 3 games. More of those will be falling tonight and, if the Heat are close late (even remotely close) there will be plenty of late fouling and jacking up three pointers as the Miami season is on the line tonight. Even with three straight unders in this series, the over is still 16-9 in Heat playoff games the last 3 seasons combined. Also, the over is 6-1 in Hornets games this season when they enter a game on a run of 3 or more consecutive unders. Charlotte got Nicolas Batum back in game five and he scored 24 points in game one of this series. Now that he's got a game under his belt, Batum may very well erupt again on offense for the Hornets in game six. For the Heat, a huge effort all the way around tonight but they won't stop Hornets team on their home floor that has averaged 102.6 points per game in this series. *10* OVER in Charlotte |
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04-29-16 | Raptors v. Pacers -2 | 83-101 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* Indiana Pacers -2 vs Toronto @ 7:35 ET - Pacers blew a big lead and lost at Toronto in Game 5. Normally that type of defeat is extremely tough to come back from but this situation is very different. Indiana is now back home, they are facing elimination, and they have had two full days of rest to prepare to play their "biggest game of the year" tonight. The Pacers are 12-4 ATS when playing with two days of rest this season and I expect a fresh Paul George to "go off" tonight and lead the way to a Pacers home win. Indiana already faced a "must win" situation in Game 4 of this series when they got down 2 games to 1 and "had to win" at home in Game 4. The result was a dominating 100-83 victory for the Pacers. By rallying on their home floor that night they got back in the series and they can do the same thing tonight to stave off elimination. The Raptors also are battling the post-season "demons" of past exits from the playoffs and that weighs heavily on teams in this situation. With Toronto's non-covering Game 5 win, the Raptors are now 4-11 ATS in playoff games the past three seasons combined. Toronto feels the added pressure here as they had a 3-8 SU mark in playoff games heading into this series with the Pacers. *8* INDIANAÂ |
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04-28-16 | Hawks v. Celtics OVER 197.5 | Top | 104-92 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play OVER 197.5 in Boston vs Atlanta @ 8:05 ET - 4 of the 5 games in this series have stayed under the total but that is giving us some nice value here for multiple reasons. One key is that the posted total continues to drop in this series. Note that tonight's total opened up at a 197 and 3 of the 5 games in this series have totaled 199 points or more and the most recent game fell just short of this range with a total of 193 points scored. The point is that we're getting line value here just based on the downward line move from earlier in the series. Another key to the value here is simply that the pace has been good for overs throughout most of this series. The fact is that shots just weren't falling but we've all seen what happens when the shots start to fall as the Hawks poured in 110 points in Game 5 once they started knocking down shots from all over the floor. Atlanta has had an average of 90 field goal attempts per game in this series. Boston has averaged about 89 shots from the field per game. Yes, one of the 5 games did go to overtime but that lone game has not skewed the average much. The point of all this is that both teams are firing away on offense and in an elimination game there is no doubt that both teams will be pushing for all four quarters in this one. Boston scored well and shot the ball much better in their two home games in this series and are happy to be back home. Atlanta wants to close this series out now and is completely filled with confidence after getting the big win in Game 4 where the Hawks offense simply went "off" and rolled to a dominating win. The over is 9-5 this season when Boston is off of a loss by a margin of 10 points or more. Also, the over is 11-4 the last three seasons in Celtics home games where the posted total is between 195 and 199.5 points. The Hawks have had just 11 unders the last 28 times they have been off of a game where they held their opponent to 85 points or less. In other words, look for the Celtics offense to get right back on track here but look for Atlanta to match them bucket for bucket in what should be a high-scoring back-and-forth affair. *10* OVER in Boston |
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04-27-16 | Blazers v. Clippers OVER 197 | Top | 108-98 | Win | 100 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* OVER 197 in LA Clippers vs Portland @ 10:05 ET - With Chris Paul now out for this series and Blake Griffin suddenly out for the post-season, the line move (of course!) has been toward Portland and the under. The thing that is getting ignored based on the line move on the total is that the Clippers have played a motion offense when Paul has been out this season and that motion offense actually has resulted in high-scoring games. The betting markets often look at just the impact of "lost points" when All Stars are out but what really should be given consideration is the impact on the pace of the game as well as how it can impact a team's defense. The Clippers defense is certainly not as strong with those two guys off of the floor. As for the offense, not only can the motion offense again be successful, I look for huge games from other players that are hungry to step up in the absence of these two stars for the Clippers. The fact this game is at home helps as the Clips will have the home fans on their side and I look for an up-tempo game with the Clippers pushing hard to continue the trend of the home team winning each game in this series. The result should be a rather easy over! In road games with a posted total between 195 and 199.5 points, the Trail Blazers are 17-6 to the over the past 3 seasons combined. Each game in this playoff series has stayed under the total and that has helped lead to exceptional line value here as the tempo has actually "been there" for an over in prior games. The Blazers are averaging 87 field goal attempts per game while the Clips have averaged 86 field goal attempts in the last 3 games and they scored 115 points in the first game. *10* OVER 197 in LA Clippers |
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04-27-16 | Hornets v. Heat UNDER 193 | 90-88 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* UNDER 193 in Miami vs Charlotte @ 8:05 ET - This series is starting to turn into an "old-school, hard-nosed" Eastern Conference playoff series. The last two games have averaged just 175 points and I look for more of the same tonight. The Heat are back home and they'll want to control the pace on their home floor. Miami has attempted 79 shots or less from the field in Games 2 through 4 in this series. As for Game 1, the Heat held the Hornets to only 65 shots from the field. The point is, Miami will look to again keep the pace of the game down and this should be another "grind it out" affair. The under is 5-2 this season when Miami is off of a game where they were held to 85 points or less. The under is also a stellar 26-13 this season when the Heat are playing with revenge. They want their payback against the Hornets tonight after what happened down in Charlotte and the Heat know the best way to get it is to grind out a victory tonight. *8* UNDER 193 in Miami |
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04-26-16 | Celtics +7 v. Hawks | Top | 83-110 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Boston Celtics +7 @ Atlanta @ 8:35 ET - The home team has won all four games in this series but that could change tonight. I am certainly grabbing the generous points here but would not be surprised to see the Celtics win outright at Atlanta Tuesday. Simply put, the Hawks failed miserably in Game 4 of this series. They saw Boston make adjustments in Game 3 and then still failed to respond appropriately in Game 4. This is a bad sign for Hawks fans that Celtics coach Brad Stevens is simply staying one step ahead of Atlanta in adjustments throughout this series. Granted, the Game 4 win was an overtime win for the Celtics but that was the kind of "bounce back game" that the Hawks should have won "going away". It's not a good sign the way they struggled. Let's not forget what coach Stevens did at Butler in the college ranks as he relished the "dog role" in leading the Bulldogs to becoming a force despite being a mid-major program. The Celtics have shown marked improvement in Stevens' three seasons with them and this appears to be culminating in what could be a first round upset in the making in this series with the Hawks. Boston has covered 3 of the first 4 games in this series and the Celtics are 18-12 as a road dog of 6.5 to 9 points under Stevens. The Hawks are now 10-17 ATS in playoff games the past three seasons and 41-61 ATS in playoff games long-term. When tied in a playoff series the Celtics have a long-term mark of 21-10 SU while the Hawks have a long-term mark of 9-13 ATS. *10* BOSTON +7 |
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04-26-16 | Pacers v. Raptors OVER 191.5 | 99-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* OVER 191.5 in Toronto vs Indiana @ 6:05 ET - Amazingly the first four games of this series have stayed under the total. With Toronto off of a bad road loss at Indiana and now back home looking to get back on track, the Raptors are absolutely going to push the pace tonight. Toronto is 22-7 to the over when they are off of a loss by a margin of 10 points or more. The Raptors also are 10-3 to the over when they are off of game where they scored 85 points or less. That includes a perfect 3-0 to the over this season. Toronto is also 3-1 to the over when tied in a playoff series. The Pacers are 17-6 to the over in road games where the posted total is between 190 and 194.5 points. That includes 3-0 to the over this season. That means we're testing double perfect 3-0 angles by going with the over Tuesday and we'll gladly do just that as the Raptors shot just 36.5% on the road at Indiana in Game 4 and that most certainly will not be repeated here. *8* OVER in Toronto |
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04-25-16 | Mavs v. Thunder OVER 205 | Top | 104-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play OVER 205 in Oklahoma City vs Dallas @ 8:05 ET - After a surprising 85-84 win in Game 2 for Dallas at OKC, the Mavericks decided to change things up. They changed their defensive schemes some and also added some full court press to their repertoire. The result? The Mavs gave up an average of 125 points per game in the two home losses to the Thunder. Now Dallas would surely like to change things back...but it's too late. The Thunder have all the confidence, Kevin Durant is off of a rare poor game, Oklahoma City is back home ready to atone for a loss in their most recent home game, and the Thunder will control the pace in this game as they look to put a beating on the Mavs. Similar to my play yesterday on the OVER in Memphis when the Grizzlies were facing elimination against a much superior foe, the Mavs have little chance of slowing the Thunder down. At the same time, the Mavericks know the only way to stay in the game is to hit some big threes and employ a little run and gun of their own. They know they are NOT going to be able to stop the Thunder at home. Oklahoma City is too "ticked off" about the Game 2 loss for that to happen. Keep in mind, OKC has averaged 119 points per game in their three wins in this series and I see them winning tonight by a big margin...very close to the posted number on this game. That means a 120-105 type game. Right at the spread but over the total by 20 points. We'll take that any day any time. Look for a huge performance from the Thunder as they want to put the burial on the Mavs in what has become a "chippy" series. Look for the over to go to 8-4 in OKC first round playoff games. The over is 10-6 in Dallas first round playoff games and the Mavericks won't quit firing up shots until the final whistle in this one because they know their season ends with a loss tonight. *10* OVER in Oklahoma City |
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04-25-16 | Heat +2.5 v. Hornets | 85-89 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* Miami Heat +2.5 @ Charlotte @ 7:05 ET - The Hornets feel like they have found the "elixir" after defeating the Heat by double digits on Saturday. However, all that happened is that Miami had one of their worst shooting nights of the season, Charlotte had one of their best games ever as far as fewest turnovers (3), and the Hornets shot extremely well from the free thrown line while the Heat struggled there. The point is that Miami outrebounded Charlotte, got to the free throw line more, and now is highly motivated for Game 4 as they are coming off of a loss. The Nicolas Batum injury situation is still a concern for the Hornets and, while the stars seemed to align for Charlotte in Game 3, they are unlikely to be so fortunate tonight. Miami is fired up and will make the appropriate adjustments here. The Heat are 9-3 SU when leading in a playoff series and they had won 6 straight first round games before the loss Saturday. The Hornets are 1-7 SU when trailing in a playoff series and they had lost ten straight playoff games before the win in Game 3. The Heat went 14-6 SU (and 13-6-1 ATS) when off of a loss by 10 points or more this season. The Hornets quickly come back down to earth tonight after rallying around the Batum ankle injury situation in Game 3. Back to reality in Game 4. *8* MIAMI |
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04-24-16 | Hawks +2 v. Celtics | Top | 95-104 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks +2 @ Boston @ 6:05 ET - The Hawks had a big lead in Game One but then blew it late and had to hang on for the 1 point win. Atlanta then dominated Game Two and won by 17 points. In Game Three, the Celtics made adjustments plus had the home court edge and they were the ones that got the big lead. However, the Hawks battled all the way back to tie the game and this was near the midway point of the fourth quarter. The point is that Boston played very nearly their "perfect game" on Friday and yet they still almost blew the game and lost it. I feel we're getting exceptional line value here with the Hawks again getting +2 on the road in Game 4 when one considers how Game 3 played out. You can bet that Atlanta will make adjustments to counteract what the adjustments that Celtics coach Brad Stevens was able to put to work Friday night. Hawks coach Mike Budenholzer will have his team ready to go here and Atlanta will continue to take advantage of Avery Bradley being out for the Celtics. Look for the Hawks to draw plenty of motivation from the Game 3 loss as well as from the exploits (and extracurricular activity) of Isaiah Thomas. Boston had lost 6 straight first round playoff games before the win Friday night. The Hawks have won 27 of their 46 games against teams with a winning record this season. The Celtics, the past three seasons combined, have lost 81 of 121 games against teams with a winning record. Take the better team, the healthier team, the revenge-minded team, and getting points here. Extreme line value. *10* ATLANTA |
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04-24-16 | Spurs v. Grizzlies OVER 183 | 116-95 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* OVER 183 in Memphis vs San Antonio @ 1:05 ET - Look for the Spurs to "push" the pace a little bit more today as they want to make sure they put the final nail in the coffin of the Grizzlies today. San Antonio knows they'll have plenty of time to rest after this game so I do expect a full "road rout" effort here from the Spurs. However, I am not fond of laying big points, particularly on the road, and that's why my play here is the over rather than the side. Memphis did makes some adjustments heading into Game 3 and the results included some better looks at the basket and the Grizzlies scored 87 points which is their highest point total so far in the series. I do expect Memphis to push the pace here as this is an "all out, leave it all on the floor" type of game. Even if down by double digits late you may see fouling and then hoisting of three pointers for Memphis to try and crawl back into the game. That's because it's a win or go home game for the Grizzlies and they certainly will give it their all, even with limited personnel, in what absolutely is likely to be the final game in front of their home fans for this season. I like the fact that Memphis shot better in Game 3 and also hit the boards hard. I also expect the pace to stay "up tempo" as the Grizzlies have now averaged 84 shots per game from the field in the past two games. The Spurs are hot from three point land and they won't hesitate to put a beating on the Grizzlies here given the opportunity as, like I said above, rest is what awaits them. Push the tempo, get a big road win, and move on. That is the mantra for the Spurs. They are 5-1 to the over as a road favorite of 12.5 points or more the past 3 seasons. The Grizzlies are 5-0 to the over this season when they enter a game off of 3 or more consecutive unders. Game 3 did stay under the total compared to the closing line. I expect no questions about where this total ends compared to the opening line, closing line, and all points in between as this one should easily cruise past the numbers. *8* OVER in Memphis |
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04-23-16 | Thunder v. Mavs +9.5 | Top | 119-108 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Dallas Mavericks +9.5 vs Oklahoma City @ 8:05 ET - Statistically a bit of a crazy result in Game 3. The Mavericks took very nearly as many shots as the Thunder did from the field and the Mavs hit 47.4% of those shots and yet they lost the game by almost 30 points! So what happened? The Thunder were on fire from three point land while the Mavs struggled from beyond the arc. OKC (15 of 27) outscored Dallas (6 of 24) by 27 points from three point land. That type of statistical discrepancy is certainly unlikely to be repeated again today but the big Oklahoma City win Thursday is helping to keep this line higher than it should be. The Mavs are in an excellent spot as a big road dog and I look for them to put up their best fight of the series in today's game. The Mavericks felt the Thunder were a little "too physical" in in the win on Thursday. That said, Dallas will be looking to redeem themselves with a "not in our house" mentality in Game 4 Saturday night. Keep in mind that the Mavs had won 8 of their last 11 games before that embarrassing loss. Also, the Thunder had lost 6 of their last 10 before that big win. Oklahoma City is 13-20 ATS this season after a win by 10 points or more and the Thunder have a 4-7 ATS mark as road faves of 6.5 to 9 points this season. The Mavericks are 14-6 ATS against Northwest Division opponents this season and the Mavs are 13-5 ATS this season when off of a loss by a margin of 10 points or more. Huge response from the home team in this one. *10* DALLAS +9.5 |
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04-23-16 | Raptors v. Pacers OVER 193 | 83-100 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* OVER 193 in Indiana vs Toronto @ 3:05 ET - With the first three games staying under the total I like my chances with this over in Game 4. The Pacers need to respond big after laying a "dud" on their home floor in Game 3. The Raptors want to keep the pressure on Indiana and will continue to push the tempo after scoring 99.5 points per game in the past two games. Note that the Raptors had 94 shot attempts from the field in Game 4. The Pacers know they need to get more open looks and get easier shots like they did in Game 1 when they rallied and scored 100 points at Toronto. Indiana had averaged 125 points per game in their last 3 home games before the ugly effort versus the Raptors Thursday. I look for a huge response from the Pacers here. But their D can't stop Toronto with the way the Raptors have been playing lately. That's why the over is the play here. The over is 4-2 in Toronto road games with a posted total in the 190 to 194.5 range this season and I look for the over in Raptors Saturday games to be 8-2 (80%) on the season after this Saturday match-up goes into the books! *8* OVER 193 in Indiana |
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04-22-16 | Hawks +3 v. Celtics | Top | 103-111 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks +3 @ Boston @ 8:05 ET Friday - It is a great value to have the Hawks as an underdog in this match-up. With Avery Bradley hurt for the Celtics, Boston was able to make a bit of a "surprise run" in the second half of Game One. However, other than that, it truly has been domination for Atlanta so far in this series. The Hawks saw what happened in the 2nd half of Game One and made the appropriate adjustments and they dominated Game Two just like they dominated the first half of Game One. Without Bradley, the Celtics backcourt is truly hurting and the Hawks play such stifling defense that it has truly frustrated Boston. The C's will be trying to bounce back on their home floor but, keep in mind, Boston has lost 7 straight first round playoff games. The two days off between games actually helps Atlanta more. The Hawks have had a chance to rest up and, unless the Celtics catch Atlanta in a spot where they are a little "weary" or "banged up", they are unlikely to get a win in this series as the Hawks impose their will. Boston is 4-10 ATS this season when playing with two days of rest between games while Atlanta went 6-3 ATS (and 7-2 SU) with two days rest this season. The Hawks went 5-2 ATS this season after allowing 85 points or less in their prior game. Also, the past three season combined, the Hawks are 50-28 ATS after a win by a margin of 10 points or more. *10* ATLANTA Friday |
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04-22-16 | Cavs v. Pistons OVER 200 | 101-91 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* OVER 200 in Detroit vs Cleveland @ 7:05 ET Friday - These teams had combined for 108 points at the half in Game Two and yet it stayed under the total with only 89 points totaled in the second half. That was due in large part to the Pistons being held to just 37 points in the second half. At home for Game Three, Detroit should be able to score much more consistently throughout the game Friday. The fact that there is so much "trash talk" going between these teams is only going to strengthen the production on offense. That's because each team is going to be trying to outdo the other with showmanship and talking back and forth. I do expect the Pistons to shoot better at home but I don't expect them to be able to slow down the healthy and high-powered Cavs who are really clicking with James, Love, and Irving all together for this year's post-season run. The over is 7-3 this season in Cleveland games where they are a road fave in range of 3.5 to 6 points. The over is 21-11 this season in Cavs games when they are off a win by a margin of 10 points or more. As for the Pistons, as a home dog in a range of 3.5 to 6 points the past three seasons they have gone 12-4 to the over. The Pistons also are 17-9 to the over this season (and 57-36 to the over the last three seasons combined) when they are off of a game where they allowed 105 points or more. *8* OVER in Detroit Friday |
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04-21-16 | Raptors -1 v. Pacers | 101-85 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* Toronto Raptors -1 @ Indiana @ 7:35 ET - The Raptors need to take back home court advantage after blowing game one of this series on their home floor. Yes Toronto evened the series up with their win over the Pacers in game two but the Raptors know their work is not finished. That said, I look for an intense effort from Toronto tonight as, with two days off coming into this game, they know their best chance to "steal one" down in Indiana is in Game Three. Game Four will come up on a short turnaround as that game goes Saturday afternoon. A big key so far in the series is that the Raptors have dominated the glass. Also, Toronto has made just 9 of 37 three pointers so far in this series. While their rebounding edge is likely to continue (full season stats show that this is an area they can dominate over the Pacers), the three point shooting struggles are unlikely to continue. Toronto has made 46 of 113 (41%) from beyond the arc in their last five regular season meetings with Indiana. The Pacers have lost 14 of their last 22 games against teams with a winning record. Conversely, the Raptors have won 16 of their last 23 games against opponents with a winning record. Also, Toronto has a straight-up record of 20-8 this season when off of a win by a 10 points or more. All of the above records are SU records which are "open for business" considering this line is basically a "pick em". Off the big win Monday, look for the Raptors roll to continue as they improve to 21-8 when in this situation. *8* TORONTO |
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04-21-16 | Thunder v. Mavs OVER 196.5 | 131-102 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* OVER 196.5 in Dallas vs Oklahoma City @ 7:05 ET - Crazy series so far and each of the first two games stayed under the total. The Mavericks shot 29.8% from the field in the first game. Then, in the second game, all star Kevin Durant of the Thunder had one of the worst shooting performances in decades for a guy taking 30+ shots from the field! With that said, I look for the Thunder to push the tempo in this game tonight after losing Game Two on their home floor. This will force the Mavs to play more of an up tempo game tonight but that is something that Dallas is okay doing, particularly when they are playing at home. Look for a "run and gun" affair tonight. The Thunder are 10-2 to the over this season when they are a road favorite of 6.5 to 9 points this season. Oklahoma City is also 3-0 to the over this season (and 27-12 to the over long-term) when they are off of a game where they were held to 85 points or less. The Mavericks are 28-19 to the over when playing with two days of rest between games. Also, Dallas is 3-0 to the over the past two seasons when a playoff series has been knotted up. The Mavs also are a perfect 4-0 to the over in games where they are a home dog of 6.5 to 9 points. That means we are testing 3 angles between these teams that have combined to go a perfect 10-0. Love this situation! *8* OVER in Dallas  |
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04-20-16 | Blazers +8.5 v. Clippers | Top | 81-102 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers +8.5 @ LA Clippers @ 10:35 ET - The Trail Blazers lost by twenty in game one but they really didn't play all that poorly. They simply got outshot on a night when everything was falling for the Clippers. The Clips hit 53.8% from the field while the Blazers were held to 39.8% from the field on Sunday. Prior to that loss, the Blazers last 7 meetings with the Clippers had only resulted in Portland losing the game by more than 6 points twice. In other words, the value is there with big points like this being offered. Even with Blake Griffin back for the Clippers some will argue the Clips had a better rhythm without him on the floor and the point is that this is still a #4/#5 playoff match-up. That said, I think the points being offered here are quite generous. The Blazers didn't get what they need from their shooters in game one and have had two full off days to prepare for the rematch tonight. Portland needed the time, the Clippers would have just as happily taken the court the very next night. That said, the Clips are likely to lose some of the momentum with the layoff here. The Clippers are 3-9 ATS this season when playing with two days of rest between games. The Trail Blazers are 10-4 ATS this season with two days of rest between games. Also, after a loss by a margin of ten points or more this season, Portland went 13-8 ATS. It is again bounce back time for the Blazers tonight. *10* PORTLAND |
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04-20-16 | Pistons v. Cavs OVER 201 | 90-107 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 0 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* OVER 201 in Cleveland vs Detroit @ 8:05 ET - With the first game going over the total many will now look to the under in game two. That is simply a natural reaction in the playoffs. The zig-zag theory. However, in this case I think the game one result is a sign of things to come in this series and particularly tonight since the Cavs are still at home. Cleveland wants to push the tempo. They want to attack the paint and then look to hit the open man outside for good looks at open threes. With Love, Irving, and James all healthy they Cavaliers are ultra dangerous and coach Lue has continually stated his desire to attack in this match-up with Detroit. That said, with some better shooting, the Cavaliers certainly could have scored much more than the 106 points they ended up with in Game One. The Cavs took 88 shots from the field but definitely didn't shoot lights out as they also only hit 34% of their threes. The evidence in terms of the type of tempo they want to play is there though and it ended up being the 6th over in the Cavaliers last 8 games. For Detroit it was their fourth over in their last five games and the Pistons have made 31 of 62 threes (50%!) in their last two games against the Cavs. The over is 17-8 this season (and 57-35 the L3 seasons) when the Pistons are off of a game where they allowed 105 points or more. The over is 23-16 the L3 seasons in Cavaliers games when they are off of two days of rest between games. The rested Cavs continue to be aggressive and attack and push the tempo in game two. *8* OVER in Cleveland |
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04-20-16 | Hornets +5 v. Heat | 103-115 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 0 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* Charlotte Hornets +5 @ Miami @ 7:05 ET - The Hornets got jumped on by the Heat in Game One and Charlotte ended up down huge to Miami by the end of the first quarter. The best thing for the Hornets after an ugly loss like that was to have two full days off to "regroup" for the rematch in Game Two. Rest assured, the Hornets will be ready tonight. As "ugly" as Game One was for Charlotte, they did play the Heat "even" in quarters two and three. The Hornets simply "stunk it up" to open up the game and then they close it out in the fourth quarter (game already decided) by letting the back-ups play. The Hornets and Heat typically play tight games and the result on Sunday will certainly prove to be an aberration as this series goes on. The Heat shot a ridiculous 57.6% from the field in Game One while the Hornets shot an equally ridiculous 43.1% from the field. The odds makers kept the line on this game in the same range as it was for the first game despite the Heat dominating the Hornets. Of course the odds makers know what they're doing in that regard...and we do too...Charlotte climbs back into this series with an outright win tonight or, at the very least, gets the cover by losing this game by no more than bucket or two. Miami is 31-41 ATS the past three seasons after a game where they scored 105 points or more. The Hornets are 12-5 ATS this season after a loss by a margin of ten points or more. Bounce back time. *8* CHARLOTTE |
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04-19-16 | Celtics v. Hawks OVER 205.5 | Top | 72-89 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play OVER 205.5 in Atlanta vs Boston @ 7:05 ET - It is interesting that the odds makers opened this total right at the same number as the total in the first game considering that Avery Bradley is out for this one. The Celtics point guard has a hamstring injury. In my opinion, even though the first game stayed under, the reason the total stayed the same even with Bradley out is that the odds maker is seeing the same thing we are. The first game stayed under even though the second half saw the teams combine for 118 points. Also, the Celtics took 102 shots from the field in game one! The teams combined to make just 16 of 62 three pointers in game one and yet it almost went over the total. The teams will continue to play at a fast pace but the shots should fall in at a better rate as it would take some really poor shooting from three point land to do worse than the game one point total. The extra rest between games (haven't played since Saturday) also means fresh legs in this one. The over is 9-5 the season in Hawks home games where they are a favorite in a range of 6.5 to 9 points. The over is 100-72 long-term in Celtics road games where they are a dog in a range of 6.5 to 9 points. Each of the three prior meetings between these teams had gone over the total before game one stayed under. The over trend resumes here. *10* OVER in Atlanta |
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04-18-16 | Mavs v. Thunder OVER 200 | Top | 85-84 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* OVER 200 in Oklahoma City vs Dallas @ 8:05 ET -Â Shorter write-ups today due to bad storms here in Texas. I realize that the Mavericks have injury issues. However, I also realize that they took 84 shots from the field on Saturday but only connected on 25 of them. That's an insane 29.8% shooting percentage. Things will certainly improve for the Mavericks Monday and Oklahoma City may be "lulled to sleep" by the game one blowout. This will make it even easier for the Mavs to have a much bigger night on offense. This line has moved down significantly and this offering great value on the over. The Thunder are averaging 113 points per game in their last 17 games. They are a 13 point fave here. We should see a 113-100 type game. The Thunder defense will let up. This is what often happens after a dominating performance like OKC had in game one. The Mavs are 4-2 to the over the past two seasons when trailing in a playoff series. The Thunder were 5-2 to the over in first round playoff games before the surprising game one result. Look for a return to "normalcy" tonight as many more shots will be falling in this one. The teams combined for a pathetic 16 of 53 showing from three point land in game one. Look for both teams to knock down more threes now that the game one "feeling out" process is over for each team. *10* OVER in Oklahoma City |
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04-17-16 | Grizzlies v. Spurs OVER 189.5 | Top | 74-106 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play OVER 189.5 in San Antonio vs Memphis @ 8:05 ET - The Spurs are expected to absolutely dominate the short-handed Grizzlies. However, to do that San Antonio certainly does not have to rely on stifling defense. This is particularly true at home. The Spurs can simply play a loose and relaxed game and "run up the score" on the Grizzlies to get their home fans fired up right away for what many believe will be a long postseason run for San Antonio this season. The reason I am not playing the side here is because "running up the score" is absolutely achieved if the Spurs win this game by 16 which is right around where the line is. That said, I don't see the Spurs holding the Grizzlies below 87 points in this game. This first game should have a good pace to it as the Spurs push the tempo and look to impose their will on offense to set the tone in this series. Coach Popovich wants balanced scoring and will use quick passes and a lot of movement without the ball for players to keep open for easy and high-percentage shots and of course we also know how the Spurs are known for "catching fire" at home from three point land! So a 103-87 game gets us there but I honestly expect a 111-95 type game in this match-up. The Spurs can get up big and then will start resting for game two. The over is 3-1 this season in Memphis road games where they are a dog of 12.5 to 18 points. The over is also 11-6 this season in San Antonio home games where they are a favorite of 12.5 to 18 points. The Grizzlies are playing this game with home loss revenge and that is a situation that has seen the over go 26-17 the last three seasons combined. The over is 9-5 in Spurs first round playoff games the past two seasons. *10* OVER 189.5 in San Antonio |
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04-17-16 | Hornets +4.5 v. Heat | 91-123 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* Charlotte Hornets +4.5 @ Miami @ 5:35 ET - Two very evenly matched teams. Sure the Heat have the home court edge in game one but the road team has won each of the last two meetings between these clubs. Also, four of the last six meetings between these teams have been decided by 5 points or less. Charlotte is a fantastic 23-10 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 6 points the past three seasons and, by the way, 18 of those 23 covers were outright wins! I am still recommending grabbing the points in this one but an outright upset would not surprise in the least. Miami, in home games with a posted total in a range of 195 to 199.5 has gone 3-7 ATS (and 3-7 SU!) this season. Also, the Heat ATS record in that range the past 3 years is an ugly 10-17 ATS. Nicolas Batum is ready to go for the Hornets today after sitting out 3 of the last 6 games. Also, the last 4 games he's played in he only averaged 24 minutes per game but I look for him to be back up to his typical contributions today and that will help the Hornets as they look for the game one upset today. *8* CHARLOTTE |
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04-16-16 | Celtics +5.5 v. Hawks | Top | 101-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Boston Celtics +5.5 @ Atlanta @ 7:05 ET - Boston lost a couple of games at Atlanta this season simply because the Hawks just shot "lights out" from three point land. The Hawks are a solid 3-point shooting team but they hit 17 of 33 in one game and 12 of 24 in another game. This is ridiculously hot shooting that is hard to duplicate. Note that in their other two games against Boston this season Atlanta was held to a combined 10 of 40 from beyond the arc. Not surprisingly, the Celtics outscored the Hawks by a combined 207 to 202 in those two games. In their most recent visit to Atlanta a week ago, the Celtics led at the half and were only down a bucket going into the 4th quarter. The eventual 11 point margin of victory for the Hawks had a lot to do with them scoring 51 points from three point land. As you would expect, Boston will be focused on playing better perimeter defense in this one. That Hawks ATS win was one of just two covers that Atlanta had in their final eight games of the season. The Celtics won 9 of their final 13 games this season and can play excellent defense when they "step it up" as they've shown that at times this season. Now that the playoffs are here, look for them to step it up for sure. I expect Avery Bradley, Marcus Smart, and Jae Crowder to provide solid perimeter defense after what happened here last Saturday. The Celtics are 23-13 SU and ATS when playing with revenge this season. Atlanta is 9-14 ATS in all playoff games the past two seasons. *10* BOSTON |
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04-16-16 | Pacers +7 v. Raptors | 100-90 | Win | 100 | 4 h 5 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* Indiana Pacers +7 @ Toronto @ 12:35 ET - Indiana is 30-14 SU (and 28-16 ATS) the past three seasons when playing with two days of rest between games. The Pacers will be rested and ready to go here against a Raptors team that is 14-18 ATS the past three seasons when playing with two days of rest between games. Toronto was hot to close out the regular season so they are a popular choice here. However, Indiana, unlike the Raptors, have made deep postseason runs before. They come into this series with confidence and Paul George is playing well enough that he is going to draw in the Raptors defense. This will open things up for the other Pacers to step up and I look for guys like Monta Ellis and George Hill to have a big game here in the series opener. The Pacers have held the Raptors under 37% from the field in 2 of the last 3 meetings. In the one game they didn't, Indiana did hold Toronto to just 68 field goal attempts. The Pacers defense is not being given as much respect as it should and they held opponents to 33% from three point land while the Raptors allowed 37% beyond the arc. The Raptors have won just 3 of their last 11 playoffs games and they got the cash in just 2 of those 11 games. All the pressure is on the Raptors here to erase past playoff disappointments and I would not be surprised to see Indiana get a game one upset and I certainly see value in the big points. *8* INDIANA |
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04-13-16 | Nuggets +10 v. Blazers | Top | 99-107 | Win | 100 | 15 h 36 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Denver Nuggets +11 @ Portland @ 10:35 ET - If Dallas loses to San Antonio in the early evening action Wednesday then the Trail Blazers will already have the #5 seed for the post-season and that will render this game meaningless. However, even if the Mavs do defeat the Spurs, the Blazers aren't necessarily going to run up the score here on Denver. Yes, I am well aware of the series dominance that Portland has had over the Nuggets. However, the Trail Blazers have not been playing well defensively of late. The Blazers have split their last four games and during this stretch Portland has allowed an average of 116 points per game with opponents shooting 51.3 percent overall and 49.4 percent from 3-point range. Remember Denver is still a dangerous team on offense (102 points per game this season) and also remember that EACH of the last five meetings between these teams has been decided by 7 points or less. Another key to keep in mind about this inflated line is that Portland certainly wants to stay healthy as they prepare for the post-season. Even if this game ends up being a game that does matter to them (in terms of their quest for the #5 seed) it does not mean that all the starters are going to be on the floor if the Blazers do get a sizable lead late in the game. Portland is pulling their guys IF they are even fortunate enough to be up by double digits late in this game. With all that said, I do NOT see the Blazers as being very likely to win this game by double digits. For the Nuggets this is a division rival going to the post-season while they'll be staying home and watching it on TV. That is motivation for Denver here and the Nuggets have gone 6-1 ATS this season (and 17-5 ATS the last 3 seasons!) as a road dog of 9.5 to 12 points! *10* DENVER |
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04-13-16 | Pelicans v. Wolves UNDER 213.5 | 109-144 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* UNDER 213.5 in Minnesota vs New Orleans @ 8:05 ET - The Pelicans started to have some significant injury issues in mid-March. Not surprisingly, playing short-handed, New Orleans then went on a run where they had 7 unders in 8 games. Most recently, the trend did flip as their last 3 games went over the total but a lot of that had to do with playing teams that did not care about winning. Their opponents were just "playing out the string" on the season. That will assuredly not be the case tonight. The Timberwolves had won three straight games before an embarrassing home loss against Houston on Monday and Minnesota absolutely wants to respond here and finish their season the right way. Even though the T-wolves were eliminated from the playoffs long ago, this young team is building for the future and they do not want to disappoint the home fans in their final game of the season. The under had resulted in 8 of Minny's last 11 games before they allowed 129 points to the Rockets in a disgusting performance. They will atone for that ugly defeat tonight. While I don't trust them to win by double digits (hence I am avoiding a side play here) I do feel strongly that they will play well enough on the defensive end to keep this game well under the total. The Pelicans roster has been so decimated with injuries that they only scored 93 points against the Sixers! The under is 28-11 in New Orleans road games this season! The under is also 14-8 this season when the T-wolves are off of a loss by 10 points or more. Minny will play some D tonight. *8* UNDER In Minnesota |
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04-12-16 | Thunder v. Spurs OVER 203 | Top | 98-102 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play OVER 203 in San Antonio vs Oklahoma City @ 8:05 ET - This game truly means nothing to either team. That means both teams will be resting players in this one as each team's playoff positioning is locked. Before the Spurs lost at home to Golden State, San Antonio had a chance at the 41-0 home season mark. With that opportunity now gone, I don't expect to see a lot of defense in tonight's game. The Thunder got a huge home win yesterday and tonight's game means nothing to them in the standings. As a result, don't look for much defense from Oklahoma City tonight either. With these teams potentially on track to meet in a round two playoff series, neither team will want to show much tonight in terms of rotations on defense, etc. This game should simply be a run and gun affair lacking in defensive intensity and where the back-ups are allowed to "have their day". That means plenty of open looks, three pointers, uncontested drives to the bucket, etc. The Thunder had gone over the total in five straight games before their game against the Lakers stayed well under the total last night. The Thunder are averaging 114 points per game in their last 6 games. The over is 11-6 this season in OKC games against Southwest Division opponents. The over is 40-26 long-term in Spurs games when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3 games or more. The Spurs would like to get back into the win column here but they're not going to risk serious injury to do it. Neither will the Thunder. This game should involve plenty of open looks on offense with loosely played defense given all the variables impacting how this one will play out. The result should be a very high-scoring game with some of the bench players having their biggest games of the season. *10* OVER in San Antonio |
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04-11-16 | Rockets v. Wolves +3.5 | Top | 129-105 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Minnesota Timberwolves +3.5 vs Houston @ 8:05 ET - What type of the team is the last type of team you want to face late in the season when you are chasing a playoff spot? It is a young team like the Timberwolves that is playing loose and confident. Minnesota is absolutely a dangerous dog in this spot. The T-wolves have won three straight games and all 3 of those wins came on the road and included the big upset of the Warriors at Golden State. Minny now hosts a Houston team that continues to be shaky. The Rockets finally pulled away from the Lakers yesterday but they allowed 110 points. This was the 3rd time in their last 4 games that the Rockets allowed 110 points or more! Houston now goes on the road in what is essentially a must win situation and they have to take on a young, rested Timberwolves team. Minnesota hasn't played back to back games since late March and they will take advantage of catching the Rockets in this back to back. Houston is 6-13 ATS in the second game of back to backs this season and that includes 12 outright losses! They'll be lucky to win this game let alone cover the spread because Minnesota is playing very loose and confident right now and that means shots are falling and the T-wolves are relishing the opportunity to play spoiler here against an old nemesis as the Rockets have owned the T-wolves in series history. This game is projected to be very high scoring and Minny is 17-9 ATS in games with posted total of 210 or greater this season. Also, don't be concerned about taking them off of an upset win. The Timberwolves are 10-6 ATS this season when off of an upset victory as an underdog. I expect them to notch another upset win here but will grab the points because if they do lose I would expect it to be by a single possession. *10* MINNESOTA |
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04-11-16 | Hornets +7 v. Celtics | 114-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 0 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* Charlotte Hornets +7 @ Boston @ 7:35 ET - The Celtics and Hornets are both known for their strong play at home this season. As a result, everyone is jumping on Boston here and I feel that will prove to be a huge mistake. What it has done is driven up the line on the Celtics and this is offering fantastic underdog line value for Charlotte. This is a late-season battle for home court edge in the post-season so it is a huge game for both teams. The Hornets play this game with quadruple revenge as the Celtics have taken each of the last four meetings! You can bet that Charlotte is ready to respond after losing a pair of early season match-ups in December on their home floor. The Bobcats lost at Washington yesterday but they are 7-3 (70%) SU this season when off of an upset loss as a favorite. Also, when off of a loss by 10 points or more this season, the Hornets have responded by going 11-5 ATS in their next game. When off of a divisional game this season Charlotte has gone 9-4 ATS. The Celtics have failed to cover 12 of their last 18 games. In fact, in their last 18 games, Boston has only FIVE wins by more than SEVEN points. As you can see, there is great line value here with the underdog and the Hornets have gone 11-4 SU in the 2nd game of back to back games this season. After an embarrassing loss at Washington, the Hornets respond today. *8* CHARLOTTE |
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04-11-16 | Wizards v. Nets +6 | 120-111 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* Brooklyn Nets +6 vs Washington @ 7:35 ET - With Washington off of their big win versus Charlotte and Brooklyn off of their ugly loss at Indiana, the whole world seems to be lining up on the Wizards in this one and you know what that means for me. I generally look at things from a contrarian standpoint and I expect the Nets to show up in a big way here. I know that the Wizards would like to get to .500 and I know that other players on the roster are hoping to step up their game with both Beal and Wall hurting. However, I also know this...the Wizards definitely were not short on motivation when they needed wins to make the playoffs and they didn't accomplish that. Just winning to get back to .500 is not nearly the motivation that a playoff berth is. The Wizards are 4-8 SU and ATS in their last 12 road games. They are also 3-10 ATS this season when off of an upset win as a underdog. While it is also true that the Nets have been struggling recently, it is also true that their recent schedule has been dominated by road games. Look for Brooklyn to respond in a big way now that they are back home. The Nets have won 3 of their last 5 home games and let's not forget that this is just their SIXTH home game in their past 25 games! The Nets schedule has been dominated by road games the past SEVEN weeks! They stunk it up at Indiana yesterday and it was evident that the Pacers wanted it more. Tonight I feel strongly it will be evident that the Nets are the team that wants it more. They got embarrassed Sunday. Tonight at home they use that as motivation and they also respond well to being back on their home floor. *8* BROOKLYN |
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04-10-16 | Warriors +5.5 v. Spurs | Top | 92-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Golden State Warriors +5.5 @ San Antonio @ 7:05 ET - Spurs Coach Popovich always says what he means...and he means what he says. The point is that if he tells you he could care or less about finishing this season with a home record of 41-0, he absolutely means it! With that said, there is more concern for each team here about getting someone hurt than there is about going out and trying to impose their will on an opponent. As a result, I see great line value here with the underdog Warriors. They are getting nearly half dozen points and I just don't see the Spurs being able to pull away by any significant margin in this game. For one thing San Antonio will be "holding back" for the post-season and, for another thing the Warriors are simply loaded with hot outside shooting. This means a game that may be more "casually" played than many are expecting should result in being advantageous to the team that does more damage from downtown. Neither team is likely to be attacking in the paint and going to the rim consistently and risking getting an inadvertent hard foul. That just doesn't make sense. With that said, the outside shooting is likely to be a critical factor in this game and, overall, the Warriors are the better shooting team. Additionally, they are coming off of rare poor shooting at Memphis last night. That is highly unlikely to be repeated tonight. Golden State has shown a penchant all season long for responding, much more often than not, with a strong shooting night from three point land when they are off of a game where they struggled from outside the arc. In terms of ATS stats for this one, the Spurs have failed to cover the spread in 14 of their last 19 games. The Warriors are 10-6 ATS the past three seasons as a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points. The Warriors also are 17-2 SU when in the 2nd night of a back to back this season. *10* GOLDEN STATE |
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04-10-16 | Jazz v. Nuggets +6 | 100-84 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* Denver Nuggets +6.5 vs Utah @ 5:05 ET - This is another situation where, once again, some of these teams that need to win are simply being overvalued. The Jazz are trying to close in on locking down a playoff spot but they continue to struggle. Utah has lost each of its last two games and overall, has gone only 4-4 in its last 8. The Jazz are facing a division rival who will be home for the playoffs. As a result, the Nuggets will of course want to play the role of spoiler against the Jazz. Denver is off of a win versus San Antonio and even though the Spurs sat most of their key players the Nuggets certainly can use that victory as a confidence boost heading into what is their home finale this afternoon. Denver will be able to play both "loose" and confident in this game while the Jazz will be "tight" and feeling the pressure of needing a win to boost their post-season chances. Denver will be playing their fourth straight home game and the Nuggets are 11-4 ATS this season (and 22-11 ATS the past three seasons) when they enter a game having played each of their three prior games at home. The Nuggets will be gunning for the upset here and if the Jazz are able to gut out a win here I don't expect this game to be decided by just a possession or two. In other words, excellent line value here with the big points. *8* DENVER |
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04-10-16 | Lakers v. Rockets OVER 211 | 110-130 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* OVER 211 in Houston vs LA Lakers @ 3:35 ET - Houston needs to win but they've been needing to win for a long time and yet have struggled to get the job done. That is why the Rockets are now on the brink of missing out on the NBA playoffs. Even though I do expect Houston to get the job done against the Lakers today, I feel like the spread on this game is right about where it should be. Where I see the value is on the total as the Rockets continue to struggle with defensive lapses and allowing second chance points due to weak rebounding. This has led to the Rockets allowing 108.3 points per game in their last 12 games. I would not be surprised to see this game end up a 122-108 Rockets win. Right at the number on the spread but well over the total on the O/U. Houston will not slow down in this game even when they get up large. That's because the Rockets have simply blown too many games lately and they must keep the hammer down in this one. This should lead to a great pace that is conducive to an over this afternoon at the Toyota Center. The Rockets are coming off of a game where they shot 57% from the floor but they didn't push the tempo enough to get the win as they had just 74 shot attempts. Prior to this game Houston had the same problem against the Mavericks but this followed a game against Oklahoma City where the Rockets attempted 102 shots from the field and got the win. The Lakers porous defense is not going to slow this game down and that means it should be a run and gun affair. The over is 30-15 this season in Rockets games where they are favored. They also are 22-9 to the over the past three seasons in April games. Houston is also 9-3 to the over when playing with two days of rest between games and the Rockets Sunday games are 6-2 to the over this season. Fresh legs for the home team in this one. The Lakers have had just 16 unders in their 39 road games this season. *8* OVER in Houston |
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04-10-16 | Hornets v. Wizards +5 | 98-113 | Win | 100 | 4 h 18 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* Washington Wizards +5 vs Charlotte @ 12:05 ET - The Hornets are fighting for playoff positioning while the Wizards are simply closing out a disappointing finish to the season. That means this one should be easy for Charlotte, right? Actually it should prove to be anything but that as Washington will put up a fight on their home floor against a hated division rival. The Wizards look to play the role of spoiler here and hurt the Hornets chances of getting a home field edge in the first round of the playoffs. Motivation is key in late season NBA match-ups and the home dog Wizards are being given a lot of value in this one as a home dog because Charlotte is the team with the need to win. The Hornets lost for most of their backers Friday as they won by 14 and were favored by 14.5 or more until just a couple hours before game time when they dropped to 14. This ATS loss drops Charlotte to 5-9 ATS in their last 14 games and the Hornets are again overvalued here. Even with John Wall injured, the Wizards are going to put up a tremendous fight at home in this one. Washington is 6-2 ATS as a home dog of 3.5 to 6 points in the last three seasons combined. The Wizards are also 21-7 ATS in April games the last three years combined. *8* WASHINGTON |
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04-09-16 | Celtics +5.5 v. Hawks | Top | 107-118 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Boston Celtics +5.5 @ Atlanta @ 7:35 ET - Huge game in terms of home court implications in the post-season. Sure this is a back to back spot for Boston but their win last night was well in hand entering the fourth quarter and so no one had to play excessive minutes for the Celtics. Boston is now in good shape for the 2nd game of the back to back and they are 38-17 ATS in this situation the past three seasons combined. The Celtics also are 11-4 SU and ATS against Southeast Division opponents this season. The Hawks come into this game on a 1-4 ATS run. The Celtics have won four straight games and eight of their last ten. The Hawks have been playing solid defense but the Atlanta offense could be a difference maker tonight. The Hawks have been held to 42.6% from the field in their last 7 games. The Celtics have been at the other end of the spectrum with 47.2% shooting during their current 4 game winning streak. Boston is loaded with confidence right now and the Hawks will be in a fierce battle just to win this game...let alone cover the significant points! Don't be surprised if turnovers play a key role tonight as well. The Celtics have forced 74 turnovers in their last 4 games while the Hawks have forced just 58. Also Atlanta has turned the ball over 62 times in their last 4 games while Boston has turned it over only 49 times. Celtics just might pull off the upset here but certainly they should be "in this one" all the way which means the points should prove to be more than enough here. *10* BOSTON |
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04-08-16 | Knicks v. 76ers OVER 201 | Top | 109-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play OVER 201 in Philadelphia vs New York @ 7:05 ET - Big wins have been few and far between for the Sixers this season but they had the advantage of facing a dilapidated Pelicans team on Tuesday and Philly got just their 10th win of the season. It also was only the 5th time this season that the 76'ers had a win by more than ten points. After the first four, the over has gone 3-1 in the very next game. Also, the over is 5-1 in Philadelphia's home games with a posted total in the 200 to 204.5 range this season. Look for the Sixers and Knicks to combined to go over the total for the 4th time in their last 5 meetings. There is simply no reason to have a lot of defensive intensity in this one. Both teams are wrapping up disappointing seasons and both clubs will simply be content to allow the "young bucks" to "run and gun" in this one. The Sixers held New Orleans to 93 points on Tuesday but Philly was motivated to get their 10th win of the season as they saw the Pelicans as a golden opportunity to do just that. Prior to that game, Philadelphia had allowed an average of 110 points per game in their last 12 games. As for New York, the Knicks come into this game off of a loss at Charlotte where they allowed 111 points. NY had been trending under for an extended stretch prior to the game against the Bobcats going over the total. Now, off of that loss, with a chance to pile up points against the league's worst team, look for New York to push the tempo tonight. The over is 7-4 in Knicks road games with a posted total in the 200 to 204.5 range this season. Also, when New York enters a game having played each of their prior games at home, the over has gone 10-6 the past three seasons combined. Look for another high-scoring shootout here as both teams focus on offense in this one. The Sixers look to build off of a rare victory while the Knicks know they can also post up huge numbers against a weak defense tonight. The Sixers have scored at least 102 points in 5 of their last 7 games and the Knicks should easily top the century mark in this one too. *10* OVER in Philadelphia |
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04-07-16 | Suns v. Rockets OVER 213.5 | Top | 124-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play OVER 213.5 in Houston vs Phoenix @ 8:05 ET - After a frustrating finish to last night's game for the Rockets I look for them to explode tonight against a weaker foe. I don't like laying big points and the Suns can put up points in a hurry and that is why the play here is the over rather than Houston. The key is that the Rockets know they "let one get away" versus the Mavericks last night. Their offense failed them late but they certainly aren't going to face any tough defense tonight. The Suns are simply "playing out the string" on the season and they are happy to "run and gun" right along with the Rockets in this one. The message out of Houston is that they were frustrated last night because the Mavericks forced them to slow down. Rest assured, the Suns don't care to slow things down and don't have the defensive match-ups necessary to even slow things down against the high-powered Rockets. The over is 11-3 this season in Houston's games when they are off of a divisional match-up. Also, the over is 21-9 in Rockets April games the past three Aprils combined. As a favorite this season, Houston has gone 29-15 to the over. In the 2nd game of a back to back the Rockets have gone 13-5 to the over this season. As a road dog of 9.5 to 12 points, Phoenix has gone 4-1 to the over this season. Even though the Suns have stayed under the total in 4 straight games they were 4-1 to the over this season when entering a game on an under streak of 3 games or more heading into their surprising under at Atlanta. The fact is the Suns allow big points nightly and the Rockets are going to push the tempo Thursday. *10* OVER in Houston |
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04-06-16 | Rockets -2 v. Mavs | Top | 86-88 | Loss | -102 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Houston Rockets -2 @ Dallas @ 9:35 ET - Big battle in the Western Conference playoff race and the Rockets are ready. Houston has had two days of rest leading into this game and they are 8-3 ATS this season (and 27-10 ATS the past 3 seasons) when they are playing with two days of rest between games. The Rockets are off of a win against the Thunder and that was the third playoff team they've defeated in their last five games. The other two wins were against Cleveland and Toronto, two of the top teams in the Eastern Conference. The significance in this is that the Rockets have been able to get the job done against some top tier teams lately. For the Mavs this is has NOT been the case. Even though the Mavericks deserve some kudos for putting together a 4-game wining streak, the victories have come against three non-playoff teams and one slumping playoff team (Detroit). Prior to this 4-game run Dallas had lost 10 of their last 13 games. This included losing 7 of the 9 games against playoff-bound teams. That is precisely a key factor as to why the Rockets are favored in this match-up even though they are on the road at Dallas. The Mavs have consistently struggled in big games against playoff-level competitors. Houston has won 7 of the last 9 meetings between these clubs and that includes knocking Dallas out of the playoffs last April. Simply put, the Rockets have the Mavs number. *10* HOUSTON |
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04-06-16 | Pistons v. Magic OVER 208.5 | Top | 108-104 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play OVER 208 in Orlando vs Detroit @ 7:05 ET - The Pistons game at Miami fell under the total yesterday and it was their fourth straight under. Detroit went into last night's game on a trend of 10-2 to the over when they entered a game on a streak of three or more consecutive unders. Even though this is a back to back spot for the Pistons, look for them to put up a bunch of points tonight. Detroit, in the 2nd game of a back to back, has averaged 109 points per game in the last 9 occurrences. The Pistons will be forced into an up-tempo game tonight because that's the style the Magic have been playing. They've averaged 118.6 points per game and gone 4-1 SU and ATS in their last 5 games. Four of Orlando's last five home games have gone over the total. As strong as the Magic offense has been, the defense has been equally as weak! Orlando has allowed an average of 108 points per game in their last 17 games. The Pistons gave up 107 points yesterday and the over is 15-8 this season (and 55-35 the last 3 seasons combined) when Detroit is off of a game where they allowed 105 points or more. Also, when off of a loss by a margin of 10 points or more, the Pistons are 40-27 to the over the past three seasons combined. Each of the last 4 meetings between these teams has resulted in an over. Look for that streak to reach 5 in a row tonight! *10* OVER in Orlando |
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04-05-16 | Spurs v. Jazz OVER 184.5 | Top | 88-86 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play OVER 181.5 in Utah vs San Antonio @ 9:05 ET - Because the Spurs are likely to rest guys tonight this total has fallen like a rock. This is offering fantastic value for the over because the fact is that this game is likely to be lacking in defensive intensity. The Spurs have a big game with Golden State on deck. They don't have to be concerned with protecting their unblemished home record here since this is a road game. Also, San Antonio's playoff position is set at #2 because there is no way they will catch the Warriors. With all that said, there is simply no motivation here for the Spurs to try and play stifling defense. I expect this game to be very loosely played and that mean Utah (who is battling for a playoff spot) can look to take advantage and should score much better than they have in recent meetings with the Spurs. In terms of San Antonio's offensive efficiency, a lot of it has to do with the system they play. That said, even though many starters may be resting, let's not forget that the Spurs still put up 107 points against Toronto in their most recent game and that one was heavy on back-ups. Also, the Spurs have averaged 112.3 points per game in their three games with the Jazz this season. Utah has picked up the pace on offense and they've won 5 of their last 6 games thanks in part to averaging 103 points per game in these six games. The Jazz are 11-6 to the over in their last 17 games in the month of April. The Spurs, like the Jazz, have also won 5 of their last 6 games and not a single one of those games finished under a total of 188 points. *10* OVER in Utah |
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04-05-16 | Pelicans v. 76ers -2.5 | 93-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* Philadelphia 76'ers -2.5 vs New Orleans @ 7:05 ET - Philadelphia is favored with good reason today. How can a 9-68 team be favored over anybody you might ask...the answer is that the Pelicans are in a world of hurt right and the Sixers being a small home favorite in this spot is absolutely justified. New Orleans is basically missing nearly every key player they have and half the roster is done for the season. Tonight they visit Philly where the entire city is still abuzz with the delight of Villanova's fantastic national championship win last night. The Sixers are very hungry to get their 10th win of the season and avoid matching the dubious mark of having only 9 wins in a season set by a 76'ers team many years ago. To summarize, tonight's game features a very motivated and much healthier team hosting an unmotivated team that has also been crippled by injuries. New Orleans did just beat Brooklyn Sunday but that game featured unusual shooting percentages as the Pelicans hit 55% from the field while the Nets hit just 39%. That is a statistical anomaly that won't be repeated here. Look for New Orleans to drop to 5-13 ATS this season when they are off of an upset win as an underdog while the 76'ers improve to 21-8 ATS in non-conference games on the season. The Sixers are also 6-1 ATS the past three seasons (including 3-0 ATS this season) when they are a home favorite of 3 points or less. *8* PHILADELPHIA |
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04-04-16 | Villanova +3 v. North Carolina | Top | 77-74 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAA *10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats +3 vs North Carolina @ 9:15 ET - The mighty Tar Heels will sway the masses on this one but the upstart Wildcats seem to be on a magical ride that's not going to stop. One of the biggest keys here is that this is a cavernous arena which is a different "setting" in comparison with a typical basketball arena. It certainly didn't bother the Wildcats on Saturday as they were on fire with their shooting from all over the floor including from three point land. The shooting beyond the arc here could be a key in this match-up because 3-point shooting has been a weakness for UNC this season and North Carolina did make only 23.5% of their threes in the win over Syracuse. That marked the 5th time in their last 6 games that the Tar Heels were held to 33.3% or worse from beyond the arc. On the season UNC only made 32% of their threes. Not only did Villanova better that by hitting 36% of threes on the season, the Nova shooters have been on fire for weeks now! The Cats hit 61% from three point land in the complete annihilation of the Sooners on Saturday. That marked the 8th time in their last 11 games that the Wildcats have shot at least 41% from three point land. In 6 of their last 10 games the Cats have shot at least 45% from downtown! Indeed the Wildcats are on fire and do have the look and feel of a team of destiny this season. Similar to the '85 Villanova team that surprised the nation with their run to the national title led by head coach Rollie Massimino. The play on Villanova for the title today certainly has some solid ATS angles to support it. The Wildcats the past three seasons combined are 31-12 ATS in non-conference games and 53-25 ATS in their games against teams with a winning record. Also, when off of a game where they held their opponent to 60 points or less, the Cats are 40-6 SU and 30-14 ATS. The Tar Heels are indeed facing a strong defense today as the Wildcats continue to play fantastic on that end of the floor as well. Look for North Carolina to drop to 1-5 ATS this season in their games against teams allowing 64 points or less on the season as Nova should take the Championship tonight. Grab the points "just in case" it is a Wildcats loss by a point or two. *10* VILLANOVA |
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04-03-16 | Celtics v. Lakers OVER 208.5 | Top | 107-100 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play OVER 208.5 in LA Lakers vs Boston @ 9:35 ET - The Lakers and Celtics are both off of games that stayed under the total. However, LA had previously gone over the total in 4 of their last 5 games and certainly there has been no emphasis on defense as the Lakers have allowed 6 straight opponents to connect on at least 47.7% of their shots from the field. The Celtics enjoy playing at a fast pace and this is evidenced by the fact they've allowed an average of 112 points per game in their last 3 games on this road trip. This is the finale of a 5 game road trip for Boston and they scored 120 points in their most recent road trip finale (at Phlly) two weeks ago. They can again take advantage of facing a weak opponent and roll up some big points in this road trip finale as well. Neither team will be emphasizing defense in this one. The Lakers have fresh legs as they play their first game after three full off days. The over is 10-5 the last three seasons and 89-62 long-term when the Lakers enter a game having 3 or more days off between games. The over is 16-10 in Celtics non-conference games this season. Also, Boston is off of their huge upset win of Golden State on Friday night. That handed the Warriors their FIRST home loss of the season. It would not be surprising to see the Celtics defense be a little flat after that monumental win. Long-term numbers also support this as the over is 25-16 the past three seasons when Boston is off of an upset win as an underdog and certainly that was a huge upset. *10* OVER in LA Lakers |
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04-03-16 | Thunder v. Rockets +3 | 110-118 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* Houston Rockets +3 vs Oklahoma City @ 3:35 ET - The Thunder have won 9 of their last 10 games and, from that standpoint, this certainly is a contrarian play. However, the key here is that Oklahoma City really is now beginning to think about health and resting players prior to the post-season. They've already got themselves pretty well set in terms of playoff seeding and now it's just a matter of health and staying in a good rhythm heading into the playoffs. As for the Rockets, there certainly can be no let up here. Houston is battling for their playoff lives and needs to bounce back off of the home loss to Chicago. Prior to that defeat the Rockets had notched a big road win at Cleveland and, with this game being their only game in the first five days of April, I expect Houston to be fully focused here even though they have a date with the Mavs (key battle in playoff race) coming up on Wednesday. Houston is a fantastic 7-3 ATS this season (and 26-10 ATS the last 3 seasons) when they enter a game off of two days of rest. The Rockets are also a solid 18-11 ATS this season (and 56-31 ATS the last 3 seasons) when they are off of a non-conference race. Houston has covered 11 of their past 17 games against teams with a winning record while Oklahoma City has gone an ugly 11-22 ATS this season in games against teams with a losing record. The Thunder also are a poor 12-22 ATS in road games this season while the Rockets are a stellar 7-2 ATS (and SU!) the last 3 seasons when they are at home with a line ranging from pick'em to +3. *8* HOUSTON |
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04-03-16 | Mavs v. Wolves +3 | Top | 88-78 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Minnesota Timberwolves +3 vs Dallas @ 3:35 ET - Ever since the All Star Break the Timberwolves have managed to avoid the long losing streaks that made the first half of the season so ugly for Minnesota. Since early February, when the Wolves enter a game on a losing streak of two games, they've won the next game 3 of 4 times. Minny comes into this game off of back to back losses and I look for a big response as the T-wolves have a 3-game road trip on deck after this game. Minnesota would love to play the role of spoiler here as Dallas has had the Timberwolves number for many years and the Mavericks are now battling for their playoff lives. The T-wolves will undoubtedly "leave it all on the floor" tonight as they go for the upset win before heading west for a tough 3-game road trip. Minnesota is a young team but full of energy and will be ready to push the tempo against a Dallas team that is in a lookahead spot here as they have a huge game with Houston on deck. The Rockets are one of the teams that the Mavericks are battling with for a playoff spot so it's nearly impossible for the Mavs to avoid looking ahead to that big match-up in Big D. Dallas is off of an upset win at Detroit and the Mavericks are 5-8 ATS this season (and 13-22 ATS the last 3 seasons) when off of an upset win as an underdog. With injuries continuing to be a nagging issue for the Mavs, the healthier team here has a great shot at the upset. For the 4th time in the last 5 occurrences, the Timberwolves respond to back to back losses by notching a victory. *10* MINNESOTA |
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04-02-16 | Syracuse +9.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 66-83 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAA *10* Top Play Syracuse Orange +9.5 vs North Carolina @ 8:45 ET -Â This game is being played in a football venue. This makes for a cavernous setting and this absolutely could work against the Tar Heels in this match-up. The Orange live and die with the success they have on defense with their 2-3 zone. The best way to beat Syracuse at the style of defense they play is with the three ball. Against the Orange, the 3-pointer (and hot outside shooting overall) is the "kryptonite" if you will. This is a double whammy for North Carolina in this match-up because, first off, UNC does NOT shoot well from three point land and, secondly, this venue is going to make it tough on teams to have success with outside shots. That means the Tar Heels are going to be forced to work inside and though that is a strength of North Carolina it is also the strength of the Syracuse defense. The Orange use their length and athleticism and positioning on defense to frustrate opponents when they try to come into the middle. I feel the venue is a big edge favoring Syracuse Saturday. The 12 NCAA Tourney games that have been played at the NRG Stadium in Houston have resulted in less than a 30% success rate from beyond the arc! The Tar Heels also were the worst three point shooting team in the ACC this season! The Orange are an incredible 10-0 ATS the past three seasons when playing with 5 or 6 days of rest between games. The Tar Heels are 9-10 ATS with those same parameters. Syracuse is 7-1 ATS in neutral court games this season. North Carolina is 4-8 ATS this season in games with a posted total in the 140 to 149.5 range this season. Look for the Orange defense to frustrate the Tar Heels offense in this one and that will make this a much closer game than what the spread is calling for. *10* SYRACUSE |
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04-02-16 | Pacers v. 76ers OVER 203 | Top | 115-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play OVER 202.5 in Philadelphia vs Indiana @ 7:35 ET - The Sixers game stayed under last night but this one has all the makings of an over plus we get to take advantage of the line move with this total having been pushed down as of early gameday morning. The Pacers are fired up after losing back to back games and I expect Indiana, as a result, to keep the pedal to the metal throughout this contest as they seek a playoff spot. Philadelphia is "playing out the string" on another miserable season so they will be happy to be involved in a fast-paced up-tempo game with very little intensity on the defensive end. The over is 9-2 this season in 76'ers games where they are a home dog of 9.5 to 12 points. Also, the over went 12-3 in Sixers April games the past two years. The over is also 12-3 long-term in Pacers games where Indiana is a road favorite of 9.5 to 12 points. The Pacers keep talking about trying to get things going on the defensive end but it just has not happened as Indiana has allowed an average of 107 points per game in their last four games. Philly has allowed 108 points per game at home this season and the Sixers have been scoring well at home since the All Star break. The Sixers are off of disappointing back to back losses to Charlotte and one of those games was at home. However, Philly had averaged 102 points per game in their 11 prior home games. The over is 10-5 in 76'ers games against Central Division opponents this season. The Pacers have played 20 games in the past two Aprils and only 7 of those stayed under the total. *10* OVER in Philadelphia |
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04-02-16 | Villanova -2 v. Oklahoma | 95-51 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAA *8* Villanova Wildcats -2 vs Oklahoma @ 6:05 ET - This game is being played in a football venue. This makes for a cavernous setting and this absolutely could work against the Sooners in this match-up. Oklahoma relies heavily on the 3 ball and the 12 NCAA Tourney games played at the NRG Stadium in Houston have resulted in less than a 30% success rate from beyond the arc. The Sooners get a high percentage of points from three pointers and they could struggle with the shooting background and unusual setting for this Final Four match-up. The Wildcats rely much less on the three pointer and also have revenge on their minds in this one. These teams met very early this season in a neutral court match-up and Villanova got embarrassed in the 23 point loss to the Sooners. That defeat was, by far, the worst loss the Wildcats have had this season. They're now playing their best basketball of the season and they catch an Oklahoma team that certainly is a stellar unit but that definitely has been a bit overvalued all season long. The Sooners are off of back to back covers but this was preceded by a 6-19 ATS run! Nova has gone 52-25 ATS the past three seasons combined in their games against teams with a winning record. Oklahoma has gone 10-18 ATS this season in their games against teams with a winning record. The Cats have the guard play necessary to do a solid job against Sooners star guard Buddy Hield and that will be the difference maker here. *8* VILLANOVA |
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04-01-16 | Morehead State +4.5 v. Nevada | Top | 82-85 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
Rickenbach College Hoops *10* Morehead State Eagles @ Nevada @ 9 ET - The Eagles rallied against the Wolf Pack Wednesday but still fell short. It was amazing they only lost by 9 points though because there was incredible statistical anomalies when you look at this game. Morehead State went 1 of 16 from three point land while Nevada went 6 of 10 from beyond the arc. Both of those stats are unusual and highly unlikely to come even close to being repeated here. Additionally, the Eagles took 69 shots from the field compared to just 44 shots from the field for the Wolf Pack. It's hard to lose a game by 9 points when you take 25 more shots than your opponent. That said, the line in this final game is right where it was in Game 2 of this series and I feel that is offering excellent line value for the underdog. The Eagles had won 11 of their last 12 games before dropping Game 2 of this series. Also, Morehead State has 18 steals so far in this series while Nevada has had just 7 steals. Despite the loss Wednesday, the Eagles are 9-3 ATS as an underdog this season. Also, as a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points, the Eagles are 6-2 ATS the past three seasons combined and 23-10 ATS long-term. Look for the Eagles to shoot much better tonight and I expect them to score the upset win but certainly will grab the generous points here. *10* MOREHEAD STATE |
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04-01-16 | Raptors v. Grizzlies OVER 197 | 99-95 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* OVER 197 in Memphis vs Toronto @ 8:05 ET - Not only is the over 25-13 in Memphis home games this season, there is a "tightener" in there that brings the over to a perfect 7-0 in Grizzlies home games. 7-0 is the record for overs in Memphis home games when the posted total is in the 195 to 199.5 range as tonight's total is. Overall, the Grizzlies come into this game on a 10-4 run to the over as they've allowed 8 of their last 9 opponents to connect on at least 47% of their shots from the field. The over is also on a perfect 4-0 run in Raptors games as Toronto has averaged 107 points per game during this hot streak on offense. I don't see that trend slowing down here. In their games against teams with a winning record this season, Toronto has gone 21-12 to the over. The past three seasons combined, in road games with a posted total between 195 and 199.5, the over is 18-9 in Raptors games. In April the past two seasons the over has gone 17-8 in Toronto games. It's the time of year when teams are making playoff pushes and the Grizzlies defense seems to have taken a backseat to a focus on offensive production. Memphis has gotten to triple digits in 5 of their last 6 games but the defense has allowed 107.4 points per game in the last 9 games. Look for more of the same here. *8* OVER in Memphis |
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03-31-16 | Nets +14 v. Cavs | Top | 87-107 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Brooklyn Nets +14 @ Cleveland @ 7:05 ET - Many will look to Cleveland here as they get LeBron James back after resting him against Houston and certainly the Cavaliers will be motivated after blowing a huge, late 20-point lead against the Rockets plus having lost at Brooklyn last week. However, the problems for the Cavs are many. James did have a big game against the Nets last week and yet Cleveland still lost. In other words, his return tonight may not mean all that much. Should the Cavaliers get the win tonight? Of course. But getting the cover is a whole other matter. The Cavs just aren't getting much lately out of their 2nd, 3rd, and 4th scoring options. Cleveland also hasn't responded all that well to the coaching change either. With all of that said, the Cavaliers are likely going to struggle to completely dominate a Nets team that is coming off of an ugly loss. Brooklyn had been playing very hard and had been playing ultra-competitive basketball before their embarrassing loss to the Magic Tuesday. The Nets had been on a 15-10 ATS run before back to back ATS losses to the Heat and Magic Monday and Tuesday. In the 24 games before the blowout defeat at Orlando, the Nets had lost just TWICE by more than the 14 point spread that is being offered tonight. The Nets, the loss to the Magic notwithstanding, just don't stop battling, and they should keep this game within a single digit margin as the Cavs struggles (currently a 2-7 ATS run) continue. The Cavaliers are an ugly 12-23 ATS this season in their games against teams with a losing record. Also, Cleveland is 0-5 ATS as a home favorite of 12.5 to 15 points this season! Look for the Nets to improve to 4-1 ATS this season as a road dog of 12.5 or more points. *10* BROOKLYN |
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03-30-16 | Morehead State +4.5 v. Nevada | Top | 68-77 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
Rickenbach College Hoops *10* Top Play Morehead State Eagles +4.5 @ Nevada @ 9 ET - The Eagles got the win in Game 1 of this best of 3 series but they did not get the cover. That is helping to give some nice line value here because Game 1 truly showed that Morehead State has some match-up edges they can exploit against the Wolf Pack. Tonight's game may indeed be another tight one and the value is with the generous points being offered here. Morehead State went 9-2 ATS as a dog this season. Also, the Eagles are 6-1 ATS as a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points the past three seasons. Their long-term record as a 3.5 to 6 point road dog is a fantastic 23-9 ATS. As you can see, Morehead State has a history of being undervalued and that is the case again tonight. After allowing 80 points or more in a game, the Eagles have responded by going 4-1 ATS in their next game. That is a full season record whereas the Wolf Pack have gone 2-5 ATS this season when they are off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more. Morehead State is the much better shooting team from three point land and yet they were outshot in that area in Game 1 and yet still won the game. With "normal" three point shooting tonight the Eagles can easily get the upset win on the road as they also have strong guard play that takes great care of the basketball. Nevada is just 23-40 SU in their games against teams with a winning record the past three seasons. Also, even though the Wolf Pack are playing this game with road loss revenge, they have gone 8-14 SU when avenging road losses the past three seasons combined. Nevada may sneak out the win thanks to their home floor tonight but, if they do, I look for the victory to come by just a single point and I certainly would not be surprised to see the Eagles win this one outright. *10* MOREHEAD STATE |
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03-30-16 | Suns v. Bucks OVER 211.5 | Top | 94-105 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play OVER 211.5 in Milwaukee vs Phoenix @ 8:05 ET - A big total posted on this game but it's absolutely justified. The Suns and Bucks are both just "playing out the string" to wrap up the season. This of course can lead to some lackluster efforts on the defensive end as there certainly is no playoff pressure involving these two teams. Phoenix has given up 110.3 points per game in their last 11 games with only one of those eleven finishing with less than 102 points allowed. The Bucks had a few good performances on defenses in recent weeks but as the losing resumed so too did the lack of defensive focus. As a result, Milwaukee has allowed 109.7 points per game in their last three games. The Bucks are off of an ugly home loss against Charlotte and the over is 17-7 this season in Milwaukee games when they are off of a loss by 10 points or more. Also, as noted to above, when playing "meaningless" games things can get a little crazy in terms of big scoring outbursts and the over is 35-20 in Bucks games the past three seasons when they are playing in the latter half of the season against a team with a losing record. Milwaukee certainly has fresh legs here as they haven't played since Saturday and the over is a long-term 57-37 in Bucks games when they are playing with three or more days of rest. Phoenix will be happy to "run and gun" here and the over is 9-5 in their road games with a posted total of 210 points or more this season. Look for very little defense with these two teams both riding losing stretches coming into this game and simply trying to put up some impressive numbers on offense here late in the season. *10* OVER in Milwaukee |
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03-30-16 | Hawks +1.5 v. Raptors | 97-105 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* Atlanta Hawks +2 @ Toronto @ 7:35 ET - The Raptors Kyle Lowry had his elbow drained after Toronto got drilled by Oklahoma City on Monday night. The All Star has shot just 26% from the field in his last 4 games and clearly is bothered by his elbow. Not surprisingly, the Raptors have lost 3 of these 4 games and, overall, Toronto is on a 1-4 ATS run. The Raptors will have their hands full tonight with a revenge-seeking Hawks team. Atlanta has won 14 of their last 17 games but one of those 3 defeats came here at Toronto. That means it is time for a little payback. The Hawks have been playing stellar defense throughout this 5-week run of success and I look for Atlanta to frustrate Toronto tonight. The Raptors have been held to 43.2% or less from the field in 4 of their last 5 games. Toronto's victory over the Hawks three weeks ago was the first time in the last 5 meetings that the home team had notched the victory. This series has been dominated by the road team in recent victories. The combination of the Hawks defense, the Lowry situation, and the revenge factor is why this line is so low on Toronto. Don't fall for the trap. The road team has the key edges in this spot. By the way, the Hawks are 23-15 SU and ATS this season in their games against teams with a winning record. They will bring their "A game" again Wednesday. *8* ATLANTA |
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03-29-16 | Thunder -2.5 v. Pistons | Top | 82-88 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 @ Detroit @ 7:35 ET - While many seem to be trying to pick the spot where the Thunder winning streak comes to an end, including thinking it would be at Toronto last night, I just don't see any reason to fade a red hot Oklahoma City team right now. The Thunder have now won 8 in a row and they demolished the Raptors so handily last night that they were able to rest their key players more than usual as the game went on yesterday. That means Oklahoma City will still have plenty of energy left for this battle with the Pistons tonight and the Thunder also know that they have only one game coming up in the next four days so there is every reason to "leave it all on the floor" tonight. Even though Detroit has a respectable record this season their recent hot streak has been helped by playing a lot of weak teams. The Pistons had won five straight before getting demolished by the Hawks Saturday but the five game winning streak included four non-playoff teams. Couple that with the fact that, prior to the five game winning streak the Pistons had lost five of their eight prior games and you can see why I am absolutely willing to fade Detroit with the hottest team in the league Tuesday. Oklahoma City has won four of the last five meetings between these teams and that includes each of the last two in Detroit. The Pistons have won the money just 9 times in their last 24 games against teams that are averaging 99 points or more per game on the season. Tonight Detroit hosts the 2nd best offense in the league as only Golden State scores more than the Thunder. *10* OKLAHOMA CITY |
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03-29-16 | Cal-Irvine +1.5 v. Columbia | Top | 67-73 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
Rickenbach College Hoops *10* Cal-Irvine Anteaters +1.5 @ Columbia @ 7 ET - Cal Irvine has gotten the job done on the road throughout the CIT Tourney. The CollegeInsider.com tournament will crown the tourney champion on Tuesday night in New York. Though the homecourt edge goes to Columbia, the Anteaters have displayed an "us against the world" mentality throughout this tournament as they've had to battle for wins on the road. I look for UC Irvine to get the job done one more time on the road tonight. The Anteaters have held their opponents under 39% from the field in 7 of their last 9 games. This stellar defense has led the way to UC Irvine notching victories in 8 of those 9 games. Columbia also has been hot with wins in 7 of their last 9 games but they have allowed their opponents to hit 50% or better from the field in 4 of those 9 games. The Anteaters have played a tougher schedule than have the Lions and yet UC Irvine, and their better defense, comes in as the dog in this match-up thanks to the location of the game. The way the Anteaters have been playing, they have been true "road warriors" so the location tonight should not be an issue. The better team wins and UC Irvine is 9-0 SU (and 7-2 ATS) when they are off of a game where they allowed 60 points or less. The Lions have a long-term mark of 9-18 ATS when they are at home with a posted line of pick'em to -3. *10* CAL-IRVINE |
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03-28-16 | Nets +10 v. Heat | Top | 99-110 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Brooklyn Nets +10 @ Miami @ 7:35 ET - Miami is off of a win (and they edged out the spread for the cover) in their win over Orlando Friday. However, prior to this ATS win, the Heat had failed to cover 6 of their last 9 games. Before the 11 point win over the Magic, Miami had allowed 3 of their last 5 opponents to hit 52% or better from the field. Their defense has certainly been inconsistent of late and the Nets have shot the ball quite well in many of their games over the past five weeks. This has led the way to a 10-6 ATS run and Brooklyn is a dangerous dog as they've averaged 108.6 points per game in their last 7 games. Off of back to back home wins over Cleveland and Indiana, the Nets confidence has been growing late in the season and they won't be intimidated at all about playing in Miami. In fact, in this series, the road team has won 5 of the last 7 meetings and, in the only two meetings won by the home team each game was decided by 6 points or less. The Nets will be "in this one" all the way too. Brooklyn is 8-4 this season as a road dog of 9.5 to 12 points. Against teams averaging 99 points or more per game, the Nets have covered 14 of the last 21. In games with a posted total of 210 points or more, the Heat have gone 1-3 SU and ATS this season! When off of a game where they scored 105 points or more, Miami is 27-38 ATS the last 3 seasons combined. The Heat continue their lack of focus on defense and the upstart Nets only have 3 losses by more than 10 points in their last 22 games! Look for another tight defeat here and that gets the dog the cash. *10* BROOKLYN |
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03-28-16 | Northern Illinois v. UC-Santa Barbara -4.5 | Top | 63-70 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
Rickenbach College Hoops *10* Top Play UC-Santa Barbara Gauchos -4.5 vs Northern Illinois @ 5:30 ET - John Green is going to miss this tournament but the Gauchos still have plenty of the firepower necessary to knock off the Huskies. Northern Illinois won only 3 of their 14 road games this season while UC-Santa Barbara went 12-8 on the road this season. As you can see, the team more likely to go on a tournament run away from home would be the Gauchos. UCSB went 10-3 ATS as a favorite this season and they are laying a very small number of points here. This is thanks to Green's absence which, as noted above, is not going to be a big detriment to a team that averaged 78.5 points per game in their last 6 games. UC-Santa Barbara won 9 straight games before losing to Hawaii in the Big West tourney. Even with that non-covering loss the Gauchos bring an 8-2 ATS run into the Vegas 16 Tourney. While UCSB was strongest late in the season, Northern Illinois went on a late season fade and lost 9 of their last 14 games. The Huskies haven't won a game away from DeKalb, IL since January 12th! When playing with 7 days or more of rest, Northern Illinois is 0-4 SU (and 1-3 ATS) the last three seasons. The Gauchos have a history of playing their best ball at this time of year with a 44-25 ATS long-term mark in March games! They also went 4-1 ATS this season when off of a loss versus a conference rival. The loss to Hawaii certainly disappointed the Gauchos but they can erase some of that disappointment by getting the Vegas 16 Tournament off to a good start and I expect them to do just that. *10* UC-SANTA BARBARA |
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03-28-16 | Tennessee Tech +7 v. Old Dominion | 59-75 | Loss | -101 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
Rickenbach College Hoops *8* Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles +7 vs Old Dominion @ 3 ET - Old Dominion is known for their solid defense and the ability to frustrate opponents as a result. However, having not played in over 2 weeks I don't expect the Monarchs to absolutely be at their best in terms of rotations on defense. That said, the more dangerous offense, Tennessee Tech in this case, absolutely could spring the upset in this game. Certainly if the Golden Eagles do fall short, the generous points should be enough for the cover. Tennessee Tech averaged 78.6 points per game this season. While the Las Vegas 16 (which actually ended up with 8 teams) is quite a disappointment for Old Dominion, the Golden Eagles are excited to make the most of this opportunity. The last three seasons combined, the over is 11-5 in Tennessee Tech games with a posted total in the 130s. Also, in their 4 games the last 3 seasons against teams allowing an average of 64 points per game or less, the Golden Eagles have gone a perfect 4-0 ATS. Old Dominion is an ugly 2-7 ATS this season in non-conference games. Also, the Monarchs are 0-3 ATS this season when they are off of a game where they scored 60 points or less. Old Dominion is 6-11 ATS this season in their games against teams with a winning record. Look for the Monarchs to struggle just to win this game (let alone cover it!) against a talented Golden Eagles team that gets most of it's production from seniors and juniors (in other words, an experienced group). *8* TENNESSEE TECH |
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03-27-16 | Notre Dame v. North Carolina OVER 154.5 | Top | 74-88 | Win | 100 | 15 h 24 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAA *10* Top Play OVER 154.5 in North Carolina vs Notre Dame @ 8:45 ET - We are getting some line value with this low total because Notre Dame is off of a "dogfight" win over Wisconsin that totaled just 117 points. Of course the Badgers love to play "slow it down" basketball and that keyed this low-scoring game. Tonight's game should be anything but that as the Tar Heels will push the pace just like they did in their huge win over Indiana that totaled 187 points Friday. The game between ND and UNC did stay under the total two weeks ago in the ACC Tourney. However, the Fighting Irish had a horrific shooting performance in that game. I don't expect that to be repeated here. In fact, Notre Dame had averaged 79 points per game in their 3 prior meetings with North Carolina. As for the Tar Heels, they have averaged 76.5 points per game in their last 4 meetings with the Irish. Currently the UNC offense is functioning at its highest level as the Heels have ripped off 3 straight wins in the Big Dance courtesy of a torrid shooting that has seen them average 90 points per game. The Tar Heels much maligned 3 point shooting actually was on fire against the Hoosiers Friday and also, UNC has shot well from beyond the arc in their past two meetings with Notre Dame. The over is 6-2 this season when the Irish are an underdog and also 5-2 this season when ND is playing with 1 day or less of rest between games. The over is also 11-3 the past three seasons combined when Notre Dame is off of a game where they allowed 60 points or less. The over is 14-9 this season when the Tar Heels are off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. Also, the over is 17-8 the past three seasons in UNC games played on a neutral court. Look for the over to improve to 7-2 in Tar Heels in NCAA Tourney games with another shootout on Sunday night. *10* OVER in North Carolina |
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03-27-16 | 76ers +20.5 v. Warriors | Top | 105-117 | Win | 100 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Philadelphia 76'ers +20.5 @ Golden State @ 8:05 ET - You know the Warriors have had this game circled on the calendars! All kidding aside, the hapless Sixers certainly present "low priority" to a Golden State team with it's sight set on another NBA title. That said, this line is simply too high. When these teams met in Philly the Warriors only won by 3 points. In their most recent meeting prior to that Golden State only won by 5 points. Granted things certainly "could" get ugly in a meeting between the best and worst teams in the NBA but I don't foresee this getting "that" out of hand. The Sixers have been competing hard even though the losses keep piling up. Last night Philadelphia was down big to the Trail Blazers entering the fourth quarter but then closed the gap to only lose by 3 points. In fact, even though the Sixers are 1-17 in their 18 games the past 5 weeks, not a single one of those 17 losses has come by more than 20 points. The 76'ers have covered 4 of their past 6 road games. Also, the Warriors come into this game having failed to cover 3 of their past 4 games overall. Golden State has a back to back coming up starting with hosting Washington Tuesday and then visiting Utah Wednesday. That said, the Warriors certainly have no need to run up the score here and actually will be looking just to notch a "comfortable win" and then move forward. As a home favorite of 18.5 points or more the Warriors have gone just 1-4 ATS. The Sixers are 19-8 ATS this season in non-conference games and 7-2 ATS in games against Pacific Division opponents. *10* PHILADELPHIA |
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03-27-16 | Syracuse +8 v. Virginia | Top | 68-62 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAA *10* Top Play Syracuse +8 vs Virginia @ 6:05 ET - You can tell by the low total posted on this game that it's expected to be a low-scoring "grind it out" type affair. This favors the big dog. If the Orange just get on a few "runs" in this game where they knock down some big threes or are able to get some quick points in transition, they absolutely have the shot at an outright upset in this game. With that said, there certainly is great line value with the big points here based on the success of the 2-3 zone defense that Syracuse employs. The Orange have certainly been. literally, "in the zone" in this tournament thusfar as they have allowed an average of just 54 points per game in the 3 games! Prior to going on a 3-0 run in the Big Dance to reach this point, the Orange did lose their final three games before this tournament. However, all 3 of those losses came by 5 points or less and that is precisely what I would expect here should Syracuse fall short in their upset bid tonight. The Orange are on a 13-5 ATS run and have certainly been a different team since Jim Boeheim returned to the bench after serving a 9-game suspension earlier in the regular season. Surprisingly, Virginia has been getting the job done with their offense in this tourney. The defense has allowed the opposition to make at least 51% of their shots in 3 of their last 5 games dating back to their final pair of ACC Tourney games. The point is that that Cavaliers haven't been at their best on the defensive end and I like grabbing the team playing the better defense plus getting the big points here! The Cavs have also allowed 39% or better from three point land in 4 of their last 6 games! When off of a game where they scored 80 points or more, Virginia has gone 1-5 ATS this season. Also, the Cavaliers are 3-6 ATS this season when playing with one day or less of rest between games. The Orange are 6-1 ATS in all neutral court games this season and are 5-1 ATS this season when playing with one day or less of rest between games. *10* SYRACUSE |
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03-26-16 | Hornets -3 v. Bucks | Top | 115-91 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Charlotte Hornets -3 @ Milwaukee @ 8:35 ET - Both of these teams are off of losses last night but there is no doubt it is the Hornets that are more likely to bounce back and get the W in this back to back situation. Charlotte has not lost back to back games since late January. Since then, the Hornets had won 19 of their last 24 games before suffering the 7 point loss at Detroit last night. Charlotte now takes on a weaker foe tonight and I look for the Hornets to get right back on track and improve on solid records against Central Division opponents. Charlotte is 11-5 ATS this season (and 33-17 ATS the L3 seasons) in their games against Central Division opponents. In road games with a posted total between 200 and 204.5 points this season, the Hornets are 8-3 ATS. The Bucks are a horrible 1-7 ATS this season in home games with a posted total between 200 and 204.5 points this season. Milwaukee's loss last night was their 4th straight defeat and 3 of the 4 losses have been by a margin of at least 9 points. In fact, going further back, the Bucks last 7 losses have only included one defeat by less than 8 points! When the Bucks lose they tend to lose big and they are hosting an angry Hornets team Saturday! Charlotte has won and covered each of the last 4 games in Milwaukee and this series has truly been dominated by the road team in recent seasons. Look for that trend, favoring the Hornets tonight, to continue here. *10* CHARLOTTE |
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03-26-16 | Villanova +2.5 v. Kansas | Top | 64-59 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAA *10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats +2.5 vs Kansas @ 8:45 ET - Of course there is no doubt that Kansas is a fantastic team. Certainly I am not going to try and argue against that .However, one thing i can say with the utmost certainty is that Villanova has faced the tougher match-ups so far in this tourney. That said, not only have the Wildcats won those games they've absolutely crushed the opposition. When you look at who Kansas has played, the Jayhawks got an easy first round game with Austin Peay, then took advantage of a UConn team that had "used up all their bullets" in some earlier miracle wins that also took a lot out of the Huskies, and finally Kansas faced a Maryland team that made a habit out of inconsistency and underachievement this season. The point is that these match-ups are in stark contrast to a Wildcats team that faced a tough Iowa team and then an even tougher Miami team and yet Nova dominated both match-ups. The Cats have won 8 of their last 9 games and the lone loss during this stretch came by just 2 points. The Villanova offense is on fire with hitting 57% or better from the field in all 3 tourney games. Conversely Kansas has seen their shooting percentages drop with each successive match-up in the Big Dance as the Jayhawks have gone from 56% to 49% to 47% and they now face their toughest match-up yet. Kansas has gone 16-19 ATS the last 3 seasons in their games against teams averaging 77 points or more per game. Over this same stretch the Wildcats have gone 14-8 ATS with the same parameters. One of the big difference makers coming into the tourney was expected to be 3-point shooting for each of these teams. The Jayhawks excel at it and the Wildcats do not. However, Villanova is "in the zone" to say the least as, overall, they've shot at least 41% from three point land in 7 of their last 9 games and the Wildcats have been particularly hot in the tournament. As for the Jayhawks, they've been held to 37.5% or less from three point land in 5 of their last 6 games including all 3 of their NCAA Tourney games. It appears as if nothing may slow down the Wildcats freight train right now. Their confidence with their hot shooting is simply sky high. *10* VILLANOVA |
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03-26-16 | Hawks v. Pistons OVER 203.5 | 112-95 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* OVER 203.5 in Detroit vs Atlanta @ 7:35 ET - The Hawks are off of an under yesterday despite attempting 97 shots from the field. The Pistons allowed 93 shots yesterday and 98 shots in their prior game so, as you can see, the pacing in tonight's game is very likely to be fast. Look for an uptempo game with both teams in the 2nd game of a back to back situation and with both clubs off of wins. It's only natural in a situation like this when off of a victory and with some tired legs that the defensive intensity drops off. The Pistons have seen the 2nd game of a back to back situation go over the total each of the last 4 times it has occurred. The Hawks have seen the 2nd game of a back to back situation go over the total in 3 of the last 4 occurrences. For Atlanta the long-term record is 35-25 to the over in this situation. Detroit has some other nice trending angles at play here as well. The over is 74-40 in Pistons home games the past three seasons combined. The over is also 16-5 the past three seasons in Detroit games when they enter a game having played each of their three prior games on their home court. Also, when off of a game where they allowed 105 points or more, the Pistons have gone 15-7 to the over this season and 55-34 to the over the last 3 seasons combined. *8* OVER in Detroit |
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03-26-16 | Oklahoma v. Oregon OVER 151.5 | 80-68 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAA *8* OVER 151.5 in Oregon vs Oklahoma @ 6:05 ET - Oklahoma is off of an under but they scored 77 points in their win over Texas A & M and the Sooners are averaging 77 points per game in their last 7 games (a 6-1 SU run) and OU is averaging 80.5 points per game on the season. They're facing the top seeded Ducks who are also off of an under despite piling up 82 points against Duke. Oregon is averaging 79 points per game on the season and the Ducks have averaged a fantastic 83 points per game during their current 11 game winning streak. Oregon has so many weapons all over the floor and is willing to play at a fast pace. Oklahoma has arguably the top backcourt in the entire nation and also is happy to push the tempo. That means a game where each team his the 80 point mark should not be a surprise at all. Just like Friday's game between North Carolina and Indiana a "high total" attracted some "under money" and yet the game went over by nearly 30 (we had the over in that one), I look for a similar situation tonight. High posted total but well deserved and this game should get into the 165 range. We get a little value since each of their games went under the total in the Sweet Sixteen round. 8 of Oklahoma's 13 non-conference games have gone over the total this season. When Oregon is on a neutral court with a line of pick'em to -3 the over has gone 12-3. *8* OVER in Oregon |
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03-25-16 | Indiana v. North Carolina OVER 158.5 | Top | 86-101 | Win | 100 | 28 h 34 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAA *10* Top Play OVER 158.5 in North Carolina vs Indiana @ 9:55 ET - This total opened up at a 160 and, not surprisingly, dropped down about a bucket as many simply see that "160 range" as a whole other threshold. In my mind, the big total here is absolutely justified and I expect these teams to get into the 170 to 180 range Friday. Each team is averaging in the low 80s on the season. Each team is playing with a high level of confidence so they are willing to push the tempo. North Carolina has the size inside to get some big production in the paint while the Hoosiers red hot shooting from all over the floor, including a season mark of 41.6% from THREE point land, can key some huge productive runs for Indiana. The Hoosiers had a couple of tough road games in the first half of February where they shot poorly but they have shot very well overall ever since then. In their current 7-1 run their last 8 games Indiana has averaged 79 points per game and shot better than 50% from the field. The Tar Heels have shot at least 47% from the field in 8 of their last 13 games and let's not forget they face some tough competition in the ACC! That said the Heels could have a huge breakout game against a Big Ten defense that gave up 94 points to Duke earlier this season. The over is 24-14 in Indiana's last 38 non-conference games. The over is 4-1 the last 3 seasons in North Carolina neutral court games where the Tar Heels are a 3.5 to 6 point favorite. Â The over is 10-5 in Heels non-conference games this season. Also, the over is 4-1 this season (and 12-5 the last 3 seasons) in UNC games when they enter after 5 or 6 days of rest. Fresh legs here, dangerous offensive weapons, and a desire to push the tempo. *10* OVER in North Carolina |
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03-25-16 | Gonzaga -4 v. Syracuse | 60-63 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 15 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAA *8* Gonzaga Bulldogs -4 vs Syracuse @ 9:40 ET - Gonzaga is on fire and they already crushed two solid opponents in knocking off Seton Hall and Utah. Let's not forget the Pirates knocked off Villanova so Seton Hall is certainly no slouch and they were playing at their highest level of the season. The Orange got fortunate in that they faced a Middle Tennessee State team in the round of 32 that was off of a huge upset in the first round. Also, prior to Syracuse's win over Dayton in the first round,the Orange had lost 3 straight games and 5 of their last 6 games. The tough stretch earlier this season could be "written off" as coach Jim Boeheim being out for a 9 game suspension. However, the slump at the end of the season has no excuse and now that the Orange are facing one of the hottest teams going I look for Syracuse's season to come to an end. Gonzaga has won 7 straight games and they also have not lost the cash in any of those 7 games. The Bulldogs averaged 81 points per game in those 7 games and Gonzaga, unlike the Blue Raiders, have the weapons and skill sets to overcome the 2-3 zone defense of Syracuse. The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in tournament games this season and Gonzaga has a 21-4 SU record in all tournament action their last 25 games. The Zags have a solid defense and the hot shooting offense also certainly has what it takes to dominate a Syracuse team that had a nice run but now faces their toughest match-up. *8* GONZAGA |
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03-25-16 | Bucks v. Hawks OVER 203 | Top | 90-101 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 36 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play OVER 203 in Atlanta vs Milwaukee @ 8:05 ET - The Hawks are off of a huge divisional win at Washington on Wednesday and now have a tough road game on deck at Detroit. In between, Atlanta is hosting Milwaukee and it won't surprise me to see the Hawks lacking in defensive intensity as they face the Bucks. After all, it is quite easy to overlook a 30-42 team like Milwaukee when you are in a true "sandwich spot" in your schedule. With that said, an easy over should result Friday as the Bucks are also off of a divisional game (at Cleveland) Wednesday. When off of a divisional game this season Milwaukee has gone 9-2 to the over. Also, the over is 6-1 this season in Hawks home games with a posted total between 200 and 204.5 points. After opening up at 206.5 this line quickly dropped to a 203 and is offering even more value on the over as a result. Atlanta has allowed 105.4 points per game in their last 5 games and the over is 4-1 in those games. The surging Hawks offense has averaged 112 points per game in their last 6 games and the over is 9-4 in Atlanta games this season when they are home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. The Hawks did lose to Milwaukee last month and the over is 18-12 in Atlanta's games this season when they are playing with revenge. Both of their match-ups this season have gone over the total and I look for another one here. The over is 9-4 in Bucks games against teams from the Southeast Division this season. Not a lot of defensive intensity in this one leads to an up and down fast-paced game. *10* OVER in Atlanta |
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03-25-16 | Iowa State +5 v. Virginia | Top | 71-84 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 40 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAA *10* Top Play Iowa State Cyclones +5 vs Virginia @ 7:10 ET - The long layoff here may not help Virginia. They are 0-6 ATS the last 3 seasons when they enter a game on 5 or 6 days of rest. Sure the Cavaliers play solid defense but they're now facing a white hot team that has been on fire with its shooting for many weeks now. The Cyclones have hit at least 50% from the field in 8 of their last 11 games. Iowa State is on a 5-1 (83%) run and they held their opponents to 61 points or less in 3 of those games. The Cavaliers have been hot as well but their biggest key to winning games is their defense and the Cavs have actually allowed 46% or more from the field in 3 of their last 4 games. Virginia can struggle at times in games projected to be higher scoring. In fact the Cavs have a long-term mark of 32-54 ATS in games with a posted total in the 140 to 149.5 range. Head coach Tony Bennett has done a great job in Virginia but this Iowa State has the right strengths on offense to give the highly regarded Cavaliers defense some headaches. The Cyclones are also a sparkling 16-4 straight-up and 14-4 ATS in all tournament games the past 3 seasons combined. When playing with 5 or 6 days of rest, unlike the Cavs, the Cyclones have excelled. They've gone 11-1 SU and 7-3 ATS the past three seasons. With all due respect to Virginia and their solid defense, the Cyclones have had extra time to prepare for this match-up and are still highly motivated by their untimely ouster at the hands of UAB in last year's dance. These Cyclones are on a mission and have a veteran group that will be able to handle all that the Cavs defense can offer and Virginia does not have the weapons to keep up on offense. *10* IOWA STATE |
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03-25-16 | Wolves +8 v. Wizards | 132-129 | Win | 100 | 25 h 37 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* Minnesota Timberwolves +8 @ Washington @ 7:05 ET - With their win over the Kings on Wednesday the Timberwolves have now covered 4 straight games and 7 of their last 9. Minnesota has shot better than 50% from the field in 3 of their last 4 games and have continued to show there is no quit in this team! The Wizards are still battling hard for a postseason spot but the home loss to Atlanta was a crushing defeat for Washington. The Wizards failed to get the cash for the 7th time in their last 11 games. While many will look for a bounce back effort from Washington here, the problem is that the Wizards beat the T-wolves in Minny earlier this month. Minnesota is seeking revenge and they are 17-10 ATS this season (and a fantastic 48-26 ATS the last 3 seasons) when playing with home loss revenge! The Wizards are 7-13 straight-up this season when off of a loss by a margin of 10 points or more. A lot of points expected here and the Timberwolves are 13-7 ATS this season in games with a posted total of 210 points or more. The Wizards are 10-15 ATS this season in games with a posted total of 210 points or more. *8* MINNESOTA |
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03-24-16 | Jazz v. Thunder OVER 197.5 | Top | 91-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play OVER 197.5 in Oklahoma City vs Utah @ 8:05 ET - The Jazz have been involved in a long-term stretch where they are going under with great frequency. However, back to back situations tend to change things up. Utah has averaged 100 points per game in the 2nd game of a back to back in all such situations since the All Star break. The Jazz won't be able to dictate the tempo here as the Thunder will take care of that on their home floor and Oklahoma City is averaging 110 points per game on the season! Also, OKC has averaged 119 points per game in their last 5 games. On the defensive end the Thunder have allowed at least 107 points in 3 of their last 4 games. With a big game with the Spurs on deck I would not be surprised to see Oklahoma City lacking some in terms of defensive intensity tonight. With that said, there is little doubt that the Thunder will push the tempo on offense and look to run the Jazz right out of the arena tonight. OKC is well aware of the fact that Utah is off of a grueling game that was a last second win at Houston last night. That leads to the Thunder gladly pushing the tempo tonight and trying to force the road-weary Jazz to keep up. Based on all the numbers I noted above, there is no reason not to expect a 110 to 100 type game which gets us well above the posted number here. The Thunder have only had ONE home game in their last DOZEN home games total less than 199 points. Great value with this low total here. There is a history of unders in this series but, from a situational standpoint, the over is set up perfectly in this particular match-up. *10* OVER in Oklahoma City |
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03-24-16 | Texas A&M +3 v. Oklahoma | Top | 63-77 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAA *10* Top Play Texas A & M Aggies +3 vs Oklahoma @ 7:35 ET - I guess one could argue certainly that Oklahoma is "due" but I still don't think that justifies the line move we're seeing in this game. If the Aggies miracle win against Northern Iowa had occurred just a couple days ago I might feel differently about backing Texas A & M here. However, the fact is that since the big come from behind victory came on Sunday, the Aggies have had a full 3 days off to rest and recuperate both physically and mentally after the huge win over the Panthers. There will be no letdown here and the Aggies now have the added advantage of knowing that certainly "anything is possible" in this tourney and, indeed, they may be a team of destiny this season. The "due factor" for Oklahoma is huge but I don't buy into that theory here. The Sooners have failed to cover 7 straight games and are on a 2-11 ATS skid. They are facing an Aggies team that had covered 8 of their last 10 games prior to the non-covering win over Northern Iowa. Texas A & M has held 4 of their last 5 opponents to 39% or less from the field. The Sooners defense has actually been heading the wrong direction as they have allowed 43% o better from the field in 6 of their last 7 games. The Sooners are 1-5 ATS in NCAA Tourney games the past three seasons combined. The Aggies have a long-term mark of 9-5 ATS in NCAA Tourney games. This season Oklahoma failed to cover their only game against an SEC foe while the Aggies were a perfect 4-0 against Big 12 opponents this season! *10* TEXAS A & M |
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03-24-16 | Miami (Fla) v. Villanova -4 | 69-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAA *8* Villanova Wildcats -4 vs Miami @ 7:10 ET - The Wildcats take a lot of threes. That said, knocking down threes with great regularity can key some dominating performances for Villanova. Right now the Cats are certainly in the zone as they've hit better than 41.1% from three point land in 6 of their past 8 games. Villanova dominated Iowa last weekend and the Wildcats did it with red hot shooting. Building on confidence as they finally shook the "second round jinx" that had plagued them, this Cats team fully believes "this is the year". Let's not forget that Nova did hold down the #1 spot in the country for a time this season. The Hurricanes have had a favorable draw in the Tourney thusfar and I believe they will get a "reality check" today. The Canes faced an overmatched MAC team (Buffalo) in the first round and yet only won the game by 7 points. The Hurricanes then faced a Wichita State team that had to be running on fumes on all the effort to win their play-in game and then their first round game. The Shockers just didn't have much left. Give the Canes credit for taking care of business but let's not forget they had failed to cover 4 straight games before getting the cash against Wichita State. Also, two of those four games were straight-up losses to Virginia and Virginia Tech. Look for another straight-up loss for Miami today and note that the Wildcats have only ONE WIN (out of 31 victories!) this ENTIRE season that came by less than FIVE points! If you like the Cats to win this game (with their solid defense and hot shooting, who wouldn't?) than certainly you like them to get the cover! *8* VILLANOVA |
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03-23-16 | Hawks -1 v. Wizards | Top | 122-101 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks -1 @ Washington @ 7:05 ET - The Hawks get a shot at revenge here after faltering against the Wizards on Monday. Atlanta had won 10 of their last 12 games before they fell by 15 hosting Washington on Monday. The Hawks suffered a letdown on defense in the loss to the Wizards and I expect a focused effort as they regroup on that end of the floor in the rematch Wednesday. Atlanta had been winning with defense as they had held 8 of their last 12 opponents under 39.4% from the field. That is a fantastic long-term stellar run and Washington's 50.5% mark on Monday was the first time a team had shot better than 46.4% against the Hawks in over a month! You can bet that Atlanta is ready to respond in a huge way tonight in this opportunity for divisional revenge. The Wizards had covered just 3 of their 9 prior games before they got the big win over the Hawks Monday. Also, dating back to their playoff series last May, the Hawks had won four straight games over the Wizards before suffering the ugly loss Monday. Atlanta has had the Wizards number and I look for a return to that tonight. Washington is an ugly 3-9 ATS this season when they are off of an upset win as an underdog. Also, prior to beating Atlanta, the Wizards had been on a 4-8 SU (and ATS) run in their last 12 games against teams with a winning record. The Hawks are the better team, they are extremely motivated, and we get good line value because they are on the road. That raises the level of this play to top play status. *10* ATLANTA |
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03-23-16 | Florida +2 v. George Washington | Top | 77-82 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
Rickenbach NIT *10* Top Play Florida +2 @ George Washington @ 7 ET - I rode the Colonials to victory in their easy win over Monmouth on Monday. However, it is now time to fade George Washington as they take a major step up in class here. GW is now hosting a tough SEC team and the Colonials have a long-term mark of 2-7 SU and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games against SEC opponents. Simply put, they go from facing an over-rated Monmouth team to facing an under-rated Gators team. Florida is solid and appears to be a team that is absolutely on a mission in the NIT after missing out on the Big Dance this season. The Gators have won 4 of their last 5 games straight-up and they have not lost the money in any of those 5 games ATS. Florida has been doing it with defense as they have held 3 of their last 4 opponents under 39.5% from the field! This season, the Gators are 9-5 ATS in road games and 8-4 ATS in non-conference games and 4-1-1 ATS in tournament games. The past two seasons George Washington has been a home fave of 3 points or less just twice and they lost both games straight-up. The Colonials history of struggles against SEC foes will rear it's ugly head again today. Unlike Florida, George Washington's defense has been suspect of late. Sure the Colonials shutdown an overmatched Hawks team Monday but, prior to that, GW had allowed 5 of their 6 prior opponents to shoot 49% or better from the field. One final note here, as you would expect the Gators faced a tougher schedule this season in comparison with the Colonials. *10* FLORIDA |
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03-22-16 | St. Mary's +4.5 v. Valparaiso | Top | 44-60 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
Rickenbach NIT *10* Top Play St. Mary's Gaels +4.5 @ Valparaiso @ 7 ET - St Mary's plays in the West Coast Conference. We've all seen what fellow conference members Gonzaga (Big Dance) and Brigham Young (NIT) are doing in the post-season. The point is that the Gaels come from a conference that produced three solid teams and I believe that St Mary's is being undervalued here. Sure this is a road game for them but, in the regular season, the Gaels beat Gonzaga in both games before then losing to the Bulldogs in the West Coast Conference Tournament. St Mary's also split in their games with a tough BYU team during the regular season. This is a very strong St Mary's team that has hit 50% from the field the last 11 games while also holding 7 of those 11 opponents under 42% from the field. The Gaels are facing a Crusaders team that played in a much weaker conference, Horizon League, in my opinion. Valparaiso was challenged only by Green Bay, Milwaukee, Wright State, and Oakland in that conference. They did go 6-3 in the 9 games against those teams but 3 of those 6 wins came by 4 points or less. St Mary's is better than all of those teams. The point is that had Valpo being laying 4.5 points in all of their games against those teams they would have gone 3-6 ATS. The Crusaders now taking on a tougher opponent than all four of those and yet they are laying 4.5 points. It's too much! This game could very easily be a Gaels outright win and, if it's not, I see it being a game decided very late and likely by just one possession. That means we are getting great value here with a dangerous underdog and the Gaels are 12-1 SU this season in non-conference games. St Mary's is also 19-10 ATS in non-conference games the past three seasons combined. The Gaels are also 11-6 ATS this season in their games against teams with a winning record whereas the Crusaders are just 3-7 ATS in their last ten games against teams with a winning record. You can tell by the low total on this game that it is expected to be a dogfight and Valparaiso is an ugly 2-5 ATS the past three seasons in home games with a posted total between 130 and 134.5 points. *10* ST MARY'S Â |
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03-21-16 | Georgia Tech v. South Carolina -4 | Top | 83-66 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
Rickenbach NIT *10* Top Play South Carolina Gamecocks -4 vs Georgia Tech @ 9 ET - This is another one of my "contrarian" plays if you will. The Yellow Jackets, of course, are an ACC team and there is a lot of noise right now about the ACC because of their huge representation at The Big Dance with six teams in the Sweet Sixteen! That is going to have many looking at Georgia Tech plus the points in this match-up. The other thing that makes this a contrarian play on South Carolina is that the Gamecocks report is filled with suspensions. Lucky for the Gamecocks, the suspensions didn't effect them against an overmatched High Point on Tuesday but I also don't expect it to effect the here either. The missing players are back-ups and so the key group of Gamecocks is still on the floor. The biggest impact is on depth but considering that South Carolina has had five full off days in between games the lack of depth is a non-issue here. Lets not forget that the Gamecocks have a SU record of 16-2 in home games this season while the Yellow Jackets went 6-9 SU in away games. With that said, the line is short enough here that any SU win is likely to equate to an ATS win as well. Of Georgia Tech's last 13 losses only 3 came by 3 points or less. Of South Carolina's 25 wins this season only 2 came by 3 points or less! The Gamecocks are 14-0 SU in non-conference games this season and 9-1 ATS! *10* SOUTH CAROLINA |
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03-21-16 | Warriors v. Wolves +12 | Top | 109-104 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Minnesota Timberwolves +13 vs Golden State Warriors @ 8:05 ET - As expected, the whole world is lining up on the Warriors here since they are off of a loss at San Antonio on Saturday. However, note that the last two times that Golden State was off of a loss they have not covered the spread either time in the next game. One time the Warriors won by 6 points and the other time by 3 points. Both of those victories are a long way off from covering a spread of a dozen plus points here at Minnesota Monday. Another factor here is that the Warriors always have a target on their backs and you know the Timberwolves will be up in a big way for tonight's game as they look to do the unthinkable - score a monumental upset. One thing one must give the Timberwolves credit for is that they do not give up. Against the Rockets on Friday, Minnesota never stopped trying and they stayed inside the big number with late threes leading the way. That was the T-wolves  5th cover in their last 7 games. Tonight's game is Minny's first home game in nearly two weeks so there is no doubt they'll be ready to go here and they are 47-26 ATS the last 3 seasons combined when they are playing a game with home loss revenge. The Wolves lost here at home by 13 points in November and look to avenge that defeat tonight. Minnesota has covered 11 of their last 15 games against teams with a winning record. Also, the Warriors are on an ugly 3-7 ATS run away from home. Certainly Golden State should win tonight but this margin is too much on the road against a T-wolves team playing hard and knocking down threes. *10* MINNESOTA |
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03-21-16 | Spurs v. Hornets +6 | 88-91 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* Charlotte Hornets +6.5 vs San Antonio @ 7:05 ET - The Spurs are off of their biggest win of the season. No doubt about it. If you're not in the San Antonio area you just can't even imagine how badly the Spurs and the fans wanted that game against Golden State. Of course the Spurs are now 35-0 at home this season but they now take to the road for this match-up at Charlotte. San Antonio is 24-10 in road games this season. The Hornets are 26-11 in home games this season. Charlotte is also off of a home loss to Denver Saturday while the Spurs enjoyed their big home win over the Warriors Saturday. The point is that this game tonight favors the Hornets from a situational standpoint PLUS the Hornets are just as strong at home as the Spurs are on the road PLUS the Hornets are getting more than a half-dozen points here too! Additionally, Charlotte has not lost two in a row since late January! In other words, off of a loss the Hornets have been a great play and I look for the Hornets to get the job done again tonight. After tonight's game Charlotte embarks on a lengthy road trip with no home games remaining this month. That means the Hornets will make the most of this opportunity on their home floor tonight. Charlotte has covered 8 of their last 11 games versus teams with a winning record while the Spurs have covered just 6 of their last 13 against teams with a winning record this season. This little one game road trip is definitely a "quirk" in the schedule for San Antonio and they could get caught still relishing in their victory over the hated Warriors. That leaves the door wide open for a Hornets upset Monday and I'll definitely grab the points here. *10* CHARLOTTE |
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03-21-16 | George Washington +3.5 v. Monmouth | 87-71 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NIT *8* George Washington Colonials +4 @ Monmouth @ 7 ET - Monmouth is on everyone's radar right now because they were considered one of the biggest snubs of March Madness since they were relegated to the NIT instead of the Big Dance. As a result of all the attention being given the Hawks, I feel there is great value in going against Monmouth and grabbing a solid George Washington team plus a handful of points. The big noise about the Hawks was their upset wins of UCLA, USC, Georgetown, and Notre Dame. Of those teams, the only one still playing is the Fighting Irish who narrowly escaped with a one point win over Stephen F Austin yesterday in the NCAA Tourney. With all that said, the "upsets" Monmouth had in the regular season may not be so impressive after all. Additionally, George Washington has played a much tougher schedule this season than did Monmouth. Also, the Colonials were knocked out of the Atlantic 10 Tourney in a tight loss to St Joseph's. The Hawks went on to win the tourney and make it to the Big Dance where they knocked off Cincy in the first round and very nearly upset Oregon (the class of the Pac 12 - unlike UCLA and USC) in the 2nd round. The point is that George Washington can hang with the best of teams and I don't put Monmouth up in that category. I feel this Metro Atlantic team is certainly a solid basketball team but this is still the MAAC we're talking about and I think all the hype about Monmouth has caused that key factor to be a bit overlooked by the betting markets. There were 6 twenty win teams in the Atlantic 10 this season whereas Monmouth only had one true challenger in the MAAC which was Iona who knocked them out of the MAAC Tourney. Great value with the underdog against an over-hyped favorite in this one. *8* GEORGE WASHINGTONÂ |
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03-20-16 | Hawaii v. Maryland -7 | Top | 60-73 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAA *10* Top Play Maryland Terrapins -7 vs Hawaii @ 7:10 ET - Hawaii got by Cal in the first round as the Golden Bears multiple issues (off the court) and an injury (in practice to a key player) ended up playing a larger role than expected. Unlike an "out of sorts" California team, it will be a "fired up" Maryland team taking the floor against the Rainbow Warriors in this one. The Terrapins played an excellent first half against South Dakota State on Friday but they then "let up" in the 2nd half and it nearly cost them the game and certainly cost them the cover. That simply serves to ensure the likelihood of a "full forty" effort from the Terps on Sunday. Maryland knows this is their "new lease" on life here in the Big Dance after suffering through a late season slump that cost them a chance at a Big Ten regular season title. After then getting bounced from the Big Ten Tourney, this Terrapins team wants to make a run and has their chance to make a big statement with a match-up with Kansas looming up ahead. That means this ultra-talented and yet oft-underachieving Maryland team should have their "A game" ready for Sunday. Hawaii played such a weak schedule that there is great value in fading them here as they are being given a little too much respect by the markets after knocking off a Cal team that, as noted above, proved to be disoriented in the first round. Look for the Terrapins to improve to 8-2 ATS (and 18-5 ATS long-term) in neutral floor games with a posted total in the 140 to 144.5 range. *10* MARYLAND |
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03-20-16 | Middle Tennessee v. Syracuse OVER 130.5 | Top | 50-75 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAA *10* Top Play OVER 129 in Syracuse vs Middle Tennessee @ 6:10 ET - Middle Tennessee State's explosion for 90 points against Michigan State certainly was not a complete fluke. The Blue Raiders have now scored at least 79 points in 3 of their last 4 games and have shot at least 54.7% from the field in ALL 3 of those games! The Blue Raiders are simply hot right now and also full of confidence after knocking off the Spartans. Certainly I am well aware of the tough defense that Syracuse can play with their 2-3 zone and I am also well aware that this could frustrate the Blue Raiders a bit early on in this game. However, Middle Tennessee State has some good size inside and this includes a true power forward in Reggie Upshaw. His ability to cause havoc in the middle of the zone defense that the Orange will employ is why I see the Blue Raiders as being able to break down this defensive scheme. The ability of MTSU to get some big points in the paint will force the zone to collapse some and that will open up some good looks for the dangerous outside shooters that the Blue Raiders have. MTSU is "feeling it" right now but their defense is nothing to write home about. The Blue Raiders have allowed at least 47% from the field in 7 of their last 12 games. The few defensive "gems" they had were against very bad teams. Against teams with a winning record, MTSU has given up at least 73 points in 6 of the last 7. Syracuse has scored at least 70 in five straight games and that was against tougher defenses than what they will face today. With this line set at around a half dozen for this game we also could see late fouls in a tight game leading to nice free throw opportunities as well. The fact is there is no reason this game shouldn't end up being a 75 to 70 type game which gets us well over the posted total here. MTSU coach Kermit Davis will have his team prepared to attack the Syracuse zone defense and there is no quit in these Blue Raiders so, even if they struggle with it early, they will get it figured out early enough to put up a bunch of points in this game. The Orange have a well-earned reputation for their defense but the over is 4-1 in all their tournament games this season and the over is 9-3 in their tournament games the last 3 years combined. Another one is very likely to occur Sunday. *10* OVER in Syracuse |
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03-20-16 | Clippers v. Pelicans +8 | Top | 105-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play New Orleans Pelicans +8 vs LA Clippers @ 6:05 ET - I am well aware of the fact that the Pelicans have some "personnel issues" to say the least as they prepare for this Sunday game. However, I am also well aware that, when Anthony Davis sat out the 2nd half against Portland on Friday, the Pelicans made their big run against the Blazers and got back into the game. There are plenty of players ready to step up in today's game and they catch the Clippers in a tough back to back spot so that is another edge for New Orleans here. While the Pelicans were off yesterday the Clips were at Memphis. The Grizzlies were a short-handed team that the Clippers should have destroyed but the Clips simply continue to have issues not playing up to their potential. LA has now lost 4 of their last 6 games and the Clippers are on an ugly 1-5 ATS run during this stretch. The Pelicans are a PERFECT 7-0 ATS the last 3 seasons as a home dog of 6.5 to 9 points. New Orleans will undoubtedly be up for this "statement game" and the Clippers can't help but look past the Pelicans as the Clips have a game at mighty Golden State up next on their schedule. What is amazing about the undefeated home dog ATS mark noted above for New Orleans is the fact that they have won 5 of those 7 games straight-up! The Clippers have struggled as road faves in the 6.5 to 9 point range with a 3-11 ATS mark the past three seasons and 9-21 ATS long term. The Clips also are on an 3-6 ATS run in games against teams with a losing record as LA has a big problem with being properly focused for their games. That will prove to be their downfall once again here as the Pelicans get big games from Holiday and Anderson (each scored 30 Friday) once again on Sunday. *10* NEW ORLEANS |
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03-20-16 | VCU +7 v. Oklahoma | 81-85 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAA *8* Virginia Commonwealth Rams +7 vs Oklahoma @ 5:15 ET - A lot of value for the underdog Rams here. VCU is 21-9 ATS this season. Coincidentally, Virginia Commonwealth is also 21-9 ATS the past three seasons when they are in a game with a posted total in the 140s. In all tournament games this season (includes regular season tourneys), VCU is 5-1 ATS. Virginia Commonwealth also has historically been "money in the bank" in the NCAA Tourney with a long-term 14-3 ATS run going in the Big Dance. The Sooners are 1-5 ATS this season when playing with one day or less of rest. Also, Oklahoma is 1-5 ATS in all tournament games this season (includes regular season tourneys). The Sooners continue to be over-valued as they are on a 3-12 ATS run in games against teams with a winning record. The 25-10 Rams can put up big points in a hurry. VCU is averaging 77.1 points per game this season and the Sooners also are on a 2-7 ATS run in their games this season against teams averaging 77 points or more per game on the season. Oklahoma got a favorable draw in the tourney with Cal State Bakersfield in round one and yet their ATS futility continued as they failed to cover the spread for the 19th time in their last 26 lined games! OU does have great guard play as there is no denying their solid backcourt. However, VCU continues to thrive with pressure defense and is again built well with a solid backcourt of their own. The Rams had tight losses to Wisconsin, Duke, and Cincinnati this season as the average margin of defeat was just 5 points per loss. The point is that this team can (and will) play tough with anyone in the nation. *8* VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH |
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03-20-16 | Stephen F Austin +1.5 v. Notre Dame | 75-76 | Win | 100 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAA *8* Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks +1.5 vs Notre Dame @ 2:40 ET - In what looks like a "gift" from the odds makers I am sure many will be backing the Irish in a big way on Sunday. After all, it's a chance to lay a very small number with a 6th seeded Notre Dame team facing a 14th seeded Stephen F. Austin team. Looks too easy doesn't it? Exactly! Don't fall for the trap here. The Lumberjacks are a veteran-laden team and a very cohesive group. They have won 21 games in a row and share the ball very well on offense - which led to 19 assists per game during the regular season for one of the top marks in the country. One of the Lumberjacks key concerns is their size but, in that regard, the Irish are a favorable match-up for them. Also, Notre Dame is not known for playing particularly strong defense and after a rare big effort against Michigan (held them to 40% from the field) they could struggle with the precise ball movement of the SFA offense. Amazingly the Irish only beat the Wolverines by 7 points even though ND shot a fantastic 58% from the field in that game. That says a lot right there and is a concern for Notre Dame heading into this game as the Irish had been held to 36% or less from the field in 3 of their 5 prior games. ND is only 23-34 ATS as a favorite the last 3 years and certainly all the pressure is on them in this game. Conversely, the Lumberjacks come into this game loose and continuing to relish the underdog role. SFA allows just 31.9% from 3-point land while the Irish have allowed 37.5% from beyond the arc this season. Look for that to be a difference maker Sunday. *8* STEPHEN F AUSTIN |
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03-20-16 | Iowa v. Villanova -6.5 | 68-87 | Win | 100 | 4 h 6 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAA *8* Villanova Wildcats -6.5 vs Iowa @ 12:10 ET - Because of what has happened to the Wildcats in recent 2nd round appearances (heartbreak) there is no doubt that Villanova will be ready for this match-up with a stumbling Iowa team on Sunday. Yes I used the word "stumbling" because the Hawkeyes are fortunate they even got there. It took a late putback - in overtime no less - to get past Temple in the first round. That is the same Owls team that Nova destroyed by double digits at Temple in the regular season. Iowa's non-cover against the boys from Philly now leads to an even worse non-cover against the bigger boys from Philly. Villanova is no Temple and the Hawkeyes have failed to cover 8 of their last 9 games! The Wildcats have certainly not been a "covering machine" but they haven't been on Iowa's levels. The Cats are 7-7 ATS in their last 14 games and Villanova is on a 13-2 straight-up run. Daniel Ochefu's ankle was much better in the big win over UNC-Asheville Friday. That big win has the Wildcats now sitting at 9-4 ATS this season (and 27-12 ATS the L3 seasons) in non-conference action. The Hawkeyes are 1-5 ATS this season (and 3-14 ATS the L3 seasons) in neutral court games. Look for the Cats to finally shake the 2nd round "jinx" that has plagued them in recent trips to the Big Dance. *8* VILLANOVA |
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03-19-16 | Connecticut v. Kansas -8 | Top | 61-73 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAA *10* Top Play Kansas Jayhawks -8 vs Connecticut @ 7:45 ET Saturday - Congrats to UConn on a great run. Ever since the Huskies improbable 4-OT win over Cincinnati in the AAC Tourney Connecticut certainly has had the feel of a "team of destiny" to say the least. However, a team destined for success in the AAC Tourney they may have been but the Huskies are about to get a reality check in the Big Dance on Saturday in my opinion. The only reason the Huskies are even here is because they got a favorable draw in the round of 64 by facing a Buffaloes team that had 8 losses in the Pac-12. Connecticut snuck by Colorado to get to this point but, even in their win over the Buffs, the fact that the Huskies allowed Colorado to hit 45% from the field is certainly a concern. UConn was held under 44.5% from the field for the 7th time in their past 10 games. They now face an ultra-talented and extremely potent Jayhawk offense. Kansas has made at least 50% of their shots from the field in 11 of their last 16 games! Kansas enters this game on a 15 game winning streak. The Jayhawks have averaged 80.3 points per game during this streak and are averaging 82.2 points per game on the season. Only 4 of the 15 wins came by less than 9 points. For the Huskies, as neutral court dog of 6.5 to 9 points they only got the upset twice in the last seven such games. That said, a SU loss here is likely to equate to an ATS win for the Jayhawks as they have 31 wins on the season and only 7 were non-covers. As a neutral court favorite of 6.5 to 9 points Kansas is 29-6 SU and, looking at the 29 wins their ATS mark was 20-8-1 ATS in those games! With UConn having won the whole thing in 2014 you can bet that have the full attention of the Jayhawks who are the top team in the country when they are fully focused and playing at a high level. That will be the case again Saturday and I look for this one to be an absolute no doubt blowout rout. *10* KANSAS |
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03-19-16 | Rockets +7 v. Hawks | Top | 97-109 | Loss | -102 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Houston Rockets +7 @ Atlanta @ 7:35 ET Saturday - This is a revenge game for the Rockets and the Hawks are getting too much respect here. Yes, Atlanta has certainly been hot but they've taken advantage of a favorable schedule. The Hawks now have back to back divisional games on deck with a home and home set against the Wizards on deck. Will Atlanta be fully prepared for a tough Rockets team they beat in Houston earlier this season? I doubt it. The Rockets also are getting some line value here because they should have covered last night but fell short when Minny went a ridiculous 3 for 3 on late 3-pointers. The Rockets led that game by double digits for much of the game including in the final minute. After burning their backers with an "unusual finish" last night I see Houston as a great value play tonight as a sizable dog. The Hawks defense had been leading the way for them in recent games but they have let up some in the past two games and have given up 106 points per game. That spells trouble against a Houston team that has won 5 of their past 7 games. Atlanta is 10-15 ATS in games with a posted total of 210 points or more the past three seasons combined. Included in that number is an ugly 5-8 ATS mark when those games are home games for the Hawks. The Rockets are 13-8 ATS in road games with a posted total of 210 points or more this season. Houston has covered 8 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning record. The Rockets have featured red hot shooting of late and are averaging 113.4 points per game the last 7 games. They'll give Atlanta all they can handle here. *10* HOUSTON |
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03-19-16 | Nuggets +8.5 v. Hornets | 101-93 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* Denver Nuggets +9 @ Charlotte @ 6:05 ET Saturday - The Nuggets are off of a rare ugly loss at Atlanta as Denver rarely loses by a big margin. They've now failed to cover 2 straight games and the significance in that is the fact that the Nuggets had been on an 8-2 ATS run prior to these two losses at the betting window. Denver's overall straight-up record on the season may not be impressive but the point is that, when they do lose, it tends to be a tight defeat. More of the same here on Saturday. The Hornets are over-valued here as they are absolutely in a big sandwich spot. They are off of a divisional win over the Heat. It was a tight, hard-fought victory and, additionally, the Hornets have a big game on deck with the Spurs. Even though San Antonio, like Denver, is a non-conference foe that is a 'statement game' on deck that certainly has Charlotte's attention. As a home fave of 6.5 to 9 points the Hornets are 5-8 ATS the past three seasons. In games against Northwest Division opponents this season Charlotte has covered just 3 of 9 games! The Nuggets are 6-3 ATS so far this month and are 28-14 ATS in March games the past three seasons combined. Denver has covered 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record and this looks like a great spot for a Nuggets upset. Certainly the points are well worth the taking. *8* DENVER |
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03-19-16 | Indiana +3.5 v. Kentucky | 73-67 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAAB *8* Indiana Hoosiers +3.5 vs Kentucky @ 5:15 ET - The Hoosiers still remember the heart-breaking 2012 loss to Kentucky and they finally get their shot at revenge on Saturday. Look for Indiana to use aggressiveness in the paint to attack one of the few weaknesses that the Wildcats have. As always, Kentucky is ultra-talented but they have been pushed around some in the paint at times and I expect Indiana to be very aggressive down low in this game. Of course the key edge for the Wildcats has been point guard Tyler Ulis but the sophomore will be matched up with Hoosiers senior star guard Yogi Ferrell. This is a key battle that Indiana has a great shot at winning which is why I see solid line value with the points in this one. A ton of points is expected in this one as you can tell by the posted total on this game. What is interesting about that is that it just might play right into the hands of the Hoosiers. Indiana is a phenomenal 14-1 straight-up this season in games played with a posted total in the 150s. The Wildcats have only gone 4-4 straight-up in games with a posted total in the 150s. In non-conference action this season Kentucky has gone just 5-9 ATS and the Hoosiers went 11-3 SU in non-conference games this season and getting a few points here. Those points are well worth the taking. *8* INDIANA |
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03-19-16 | Yale +6.5 v. Duke | 64-71 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAA *8* Yale Bulldogs +6.5 vs Duke @ 2:40 ET Saturday - The almighty powerful Duke opened up at just a 6 point favorite against 12th seeded Yale. Think about that for a second...it doesn't even seem plausible, does it? The feeling here is that the low line is absolutely justified and is an open invitation for public money to flood in on the Blue Devils. That money flow has already started as the line is up to a 6.5 as of early gameday morning. I would not be surprised to see the line climb even higher but I am pulling the trigger right now. The Bulldogs lost at Duke by 19 points back in November. Note that Yale was only down by 2 points to the Blue Devils at the half in that game. Also, the Bulldogs are a perfect 7-0 ATS the last three seasons combined when they are playing with road loss revenge. Yale also is now 8-1 ATS the last three seasons combined in all tournament games after their upset of Baylor in the first round. Duke fell short of the cover against NC-Wilmington Thursday and is now on a 6 game ATS losing streak dating back to the regular season. Also, the Blue Devils are now 0-7 ATS in games played on a neutral court this season. Also, when playing with no rest or just one day of rest this season, Duke has gone 1-5 ATS. The Bulldogs have a veteran, cohesive group and this game is likely to go down to the wire which means there is superb line value with the points. *8* YALE |
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03-18-16 | Blazers -1 v. Pelicans | 117-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* Portland Trail Blazers pick'em @ New Orleans @ 8:05 ET Friday - Ideal situation here. Portland is a solid team but they've played a tough schedule of late and this has caused their recent overall tough stretch. The Trail Blazers will bounce back and get back on track. They've had recent losses to teams like Golden State, Oklahoma City, and San Antonio. The Blazers faced the Spurs in Texas last night but will bounce back even though this is a back to back because Portland will take advantage of facing a lesser foe. Plus the Trail Blazers are certainly catching the Pelicans at a great time as New Orleans is off of a rare, upset win. The Pelicans had lost 8 of their last 9 before notching the victory at Sacramento to wrap up a West Coast road trip. New Orleans is an ugly 3-10 ATS this season when off of an upset win as an underdog. The Trail Blazers are 20-11 ATS (and SU) this season when facing a team with a losing record. The Blazers are also 20-11 ATS when off of a game where they allowed 105 points or more. By the way, the Pelicans 3 year mark when off of an upset win as an underdog is also ugly. It's 16-28 ATS. Last, but certainly not least, the Blazers have revenge for a 26 point loss suffered in their last trip to New Orleans which was all the way back on December 23rd. Payback time here as the Trail Blazers had won 8 of the 9 prior meetings. True series dominance. *8* PORTLAND |
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