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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-29-17 | Suns v. Pistons OVER 217 | Top | 107-131 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Pistons vs Phoenix Suns @ 7:05 ET - The Suns finally held a team under 100 points yesterday but that's because it was the miserable Bulls. That win in Chicago marked just the 5th time this season that the Suns have managed to hold their opponent under 110 points. After the first 4 times, Phoenix allowed at least 113 points in their next game with all 4 games going over the total as the Suns allowed an average of 124 points in those 4 prior occurrences. I look for a similar result here as Detroit comes into this one off of a strong performance on offense as they scored 118 points at Boston. The Pistons shouldn't have any trouble scoring at least that tonight against the Suns and its a non-conference match-up which generally means less attention on defense. Detroit has, in fact, allowed at least 51% shooting from the field in 3 of their last 4 games so Phoenix is likely to be "trading buckets" with the Pistons for quite awhile in this one. Even with yesterday's under, the Suns are still 7-2 to the over this season in non-conference games. Also, the Pistons most recent home game was against the division rival Cavs and stayed under the total but, prior to that, they were on a 4-0 run to the over in home games! 10* OVER the total in Detroit |
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11-28-17 | Heat +5 v. Cavs | 97-108 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
NBA TV Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Tuesday 8* Miami Heat (+) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7:05 ET - A lot of line value here as the Cavaliers are in a back to back spot. Even though Cleveland has won 8 straight games, their schedule has been quite friendly of late. Now the Cavs are in what is their 4th back to back spot so far this season. In the first 3 they have not only lost all 3, they were favored by an average margin of 10 points and yet they lost each game outright by an average margin of 15 points! That means the Cavs are 0-3 ATS in this spot this season with an average cover for the opposition by a 25 point margin! As you can see, the Heat not only have a great shot at the cover here but also an outright victory by a sizable margin. Cleveland is off of a huge win at Philly last night but the 76ers did outrebound them and had 10 more shots from the field in the game. Philadelphia just simply couldn't hit their shots last night while the Cavaliers rolled. Cleveland is 0-9 ATS at home this season and 2-12 ATS as a favorite. Eventually some of these numbers will certainly start to reverse but this isn't the time for any changes to begin. It is a back to back spot with travel involved for the Cavs and this is the same situation they have struggled in all 3 times this season. Miami comes into this game off of a day of rest yesterday and they've won 3 straight games heading into this match-up. Also, the Heat have won each of their last 3 meetings with Cleveland as well. Miami is 16-9 ATS when on a winning streak of 3 games or more and the Heat get the job done again here. 8* MIAMI |
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11-28-17 | Iona v. Ohio -3.5 | 93-88 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #550 Monday 8* Ohio University Bobcats (-) vs Iona Gaels @ 7 ET - The Gaels haven't played since the 19th. Rest can lead to rust and it certainly hasn't treated Iona well through the years. When the Gaels enter a game on rest of 7 days or more, they have a SU record of 8-19. Though Iona is still projected to be at the top of the MAAC this season, they have lost some key players the past two seasons and aren't quite at the level they were in recent seasons. The Gaels are near the bottom of the rankings so far this season in terms of shooting percentage allowed (49.1%) and their rebounding margin (-8.6 per game). That certainly doesn't bode well for a rusty Iona team coming off of a long layoff and going on the road and knocking off a revenge-minded Ohio U. team. The Bobcats led the Gaels at half at the Hynes Athletic Center in New Rochelle, NY last season but ended up losing a tight game. It is time for payback here and Ohio University is happy to have this contest at home. The Bobcats are on a 30-7 SU run in home games and also 22-3 SU in their last 25 games against teams with a losing record. The Bobcats are "feeling it" right now after their hot shooting effort versus Mount Saint Mary's Friday and they are 19-7 SU and 16-7 ATS when off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. 8* OHIO UNIVERSITY |
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11-28-17 | Baylor +5 v. Xavier | 63-76 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #511 Monday 8* Baylor Bears (+) @ Xavier Musketeers @ 6:30 ET - I love fading streaks like this. The Musketeers have won 33 straight non-conference home games. However, here they are hosting a Bears team that is just as strong as they are. Also, Xavier has a huge game on deck as their annual Crosstown Shootout versus Cincinnati is on tap for Saturday. The Musketeers are also off of a loss to Arizona State this past weekend in the Las Vegas Classic and the 102 points allowed to the Sun Devils certainly exposed the weakness of the Xavier defense. The fact is that, under coach Chris Mack, there is a history of teams that struggle early in the season but then are extremely tough outs late in the season. This looks like a repeat of that and I love the value being offered here with Baylor getting sizable points. The Musketeers would like to avenge last season's loss in Waco but the Bears did beat them by 15 points in that game and I feel that Xavier still has not closed the gap all the way. In other words, even home court isn't enough to necessarily get the Musketeers the win here (especially with the Bearcats on deck) and Baylor getting significant points is the way to go here. Xavier is 6-11 ATS after a game in which they allowed 80 points or more. The Musketeers also are 1-6 ATS in home games with a posted total in a range of 140 to 144.5 points. The Bears are 7-3 ATS against Big East opponents. 8* BAYLOR |
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11-27-17 | Wisconsin +8.5 v. Virginia | 37-49 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach Game #725 Monday 8* Wisconsin Badgers (+) @ Virginia Cavaliers @ 9 ET - The Badgers are certainly a "step down" from where they have been but they will get better as the season goes on and a big win over UW-Milwaukee helps get some positive momentum going for a Wisconsin team that had lost 3 straight games by an average margin of just 5.7 points per game. Virginia, of course, is the better team and they are at home but this game (as you can tell from the total) is projected to be a rather low-scoring affair and I expect the Badgers to be able to hang around in the type of game they generally thrive in - a low-scoring grinder! We are getting extra value here because the Cavaliers are 6-0 on the season and also have covered 5 straight ATS. In my opinion, this is the toughest match-up they have faced this season and yet the line is inching higher. I won't hesitate to step in on the big dog side. The Badgers are 20-12 ATS after allowing 60 points or less in their prior game. Wisconsin also is a long-term 20-10 ATS against ACC opponents. The Badgers additionally are 7-3 ATS when facing solid defensive teams (allowing 64 points or less per game). Virginia is a long-term 11-19 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points including 1-3 ATS the past 2 seasons. The Cavs win but don't cover here! 8* WISCONSIN |
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11-27-17 | Nets +17 v. Rockets | 103-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Monday 8* Brooklyn Nets (+) @ Houston Rockets @ 8:05 ET - Just too many points here. The Rockets, of course, are the better team and are at home but the Nets are quietly playing extremely competitive basketball. Brooklyn won at Memphis last season and, despite playing a number of quality teams like Portland (twice), Cleveland, Golden State, and Denver, the Nets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games. Also, Brooklyn has only lost 1 game this entire season by more than 13 points and that was exactly a month ago to the day in October and now the Nets are getting 17 here. It's just too much. The Rockets don't have any incentive to run up the score here. If anything, Brooklyn is the more motivated team as they lost at home by 25 to Houston when they most recently met (back in January). Note that the Nets had covered each of the prior 3 meetings. Also, yesterday was just the 2nd time in 5 games that Brooklyn didn't shoot over 50% from the field. The Nets held the Grizzlies to just 88 points and they are 5-1 ATS when off of a game where they allowed 90 points or less. Also, Brooklyn is a perfect 7-0 ATS this season in games against teams that score 106 points or more per game. The Nets also are 7-1 ATS in games against teams with a winning record. The Rockets are just 1-4 ATS against Atlantic Division teams this season (again, the motivation just isn't there against a non-Western Conference foe). Also, Houston is just 17-31 ATS as a home fave of 12.5 to 18 points. 8* BROOKLYN |
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11-26-17 | Missouri +7.5 v. West Virginia | 79-83 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #531 Sunday 8* Missouri Tigers (+) vs West Virginia Mountaineers in Advocare Championship Game at HP Field House in Orlando, FL - The Tigers have the experience, depth, and backcourt to properly deal with "Press Virginia". Of course the Mountaineers are off of a blowout win over Central Florida but that is part of what is driving the crazy value here as this line is way over-priced when you consider what Missouri brings to the hardwood here and the fact that this is a neutral court game. Keep in mind the Tigers returned 4 starters and they are much better than what last season's record would lead you to believe. New head coach Cuonzo Martin already has this team believing! Remember that he was hired in early March and the Tigers had one of the best recruiting classes in the entire nation for this season! West Virginia is certainly a great team and that is why they're ranked of course but Missouri is still flying under the radar a bit. This is a Tigers team that is hitting 37% of their threes this season and the Mountaineers were allowing 42.3% three pointers before holding UCF to a ridiculous 1 of 12 performance in that insane blowout win over the Golden Knights Saturday which has resulted in an inflated market perception of West Virginia here. The Mountaineers are 0-3 ATS against SEC opponents. The Tigers are 15-4 ATS in neutral court games with a posted total between 145 and 149.5 points. That's a combined 18-4 (82%) ATS spot favoring the dog here. 8* MISSOURI |
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11-26-17 | Nets +5.5 v. Grizzlies | 98-88 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Sunday 8* Brooklyn Nets (+) @ Memphis Grizzlies @ 6:05 ET - Considering Brooklyn is only 2-7 on the road it looks almost "too easy" to take Memphis at home laying a rather small number here. However, you know looks can be deceiving and that is what my contrarian crusher plays are all about! In this case, upon closer inspection, you'll see why the Nets are actually a great play here! Not only has Memphis lost 7 straight games (SU and ATS!), the Grizzlies are 4-11 in their last 15 games with only 2 wins by more than 5 points! In other words, Memphis would have to do something they've only done TWICE in their last 15 games to beat us here. I like my chances with a Nets team that has covered 7 of its last 9 games while truly playing competitive basketball versus the likes of the Cavaliers, Warriors, Celtics, Nuggets, and Blazers. Brooklyn enters this game off of a high-scoring loss versus Portland. That is significant here as the Nets are 5-0 ATS this season when off of a game where they scored 115 points or more. The Grizzlies have trouble matching up with teams like Brooklyn that are consistently involved in high-scoring games. Sure the Nets defensive numbers will impress no one but check this out: Memphis has gone 0-6 ATS this season when facing a team that allows 106 or more points per game! That means we have an 11-0 ATS combined spot here that favors the road dog. 8* BROOKLYN |
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11-25-17 | Southern Utah +25 v. UNLV | 82-101 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
Hidden Gem - Rickenbach CBB Game #799 Saturday 8* Southern Utah Thunderbirds (+) @ UNLV Rebels @ 10 ET - Southern Utah head coach Todd Simon was an assistant at UNLV. He is now entering his 2nd season with the Thunderbirds and last year they lost to the Rebels by only 8 points. Simon certainly knows the program well and now he also has a player, Jamal Aytes, who used to play for UNLV as well and will be up for a huge game here. A lot of "inside edges" here and, of course, the Runnin' Rebels are the better team but coach Simon has a number of returning starters plus transfer players and incoming freshmen that are already contributing significantly early this season. Last year, the Thunderbirds had Randy Onwuasor who has since transferred out but the Southern Utah leading scorer last season actually did not shoot well in the game against UNLV while his teammates shot 50% and contributed most of the key scoring. Both the Thunderbirds and Runnin' Rebels have played soft schedules early this season. UNLV is certainly the superior team but will they be fully focused here? I doubt it! Coming off of the Thanksgiving Holiday and with a tougher match-up on deck (Northern Iowa) and then a huge game (Arizona) after that, I don't expect UNLV to be in "shutdown mode" here and Southern Utah hangs around as a result. The Thunderbirds are 6-3 ATS in games with a posted total in the 160s. UNLV is on an 8-16 ATS run in Saturday games. 8* SOUTHERN UTAH |
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11-25-17 | Pelicans +11.5 v. Warriors | 95-110 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Saturday 8* New Orleans Pelicans (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 8:35 ET - With the Warriors off of a 49-point home win over the Bulls last night this one is a no-brainer, right? Actually it is anything but because Kevin Durant (ankle) is listed as doubtful for tonight's game and the Pelicans big men will take advantage. New Orleans is on the road again but with their blowout win at Phoenix last night they were able to rest guys. The Pelicans are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games and New Orleans is also 5-0 ATS against Pacific Division opponents this season. The Warriors are 3-8 ATS off of a game where they scored 115 points or more. The Warriors won all 4 meetings last season and the first meeting this season with New Orleans but the Pelicans have only lost 1 of those games by more than 10 points. Couple that with the fact that Durant is hurting and you have the makings of a much closer game than many are expecting here. 8* NEW ORLEANS |
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11-24-17 | Bulls v. Warriors OVER 214 | 94-143 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
NBA TV Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Friday 8* OVER the total in Golden State Warriors vs Chicago Bulls @ 10:35 ET - Golden State is angry coming off of that loss at Oklahoma City Wednesday night. Now they are back home for the first time in a week and a half and will look to take out their frustration on a lesser foe. While I do expect the Warriors to put up a ton of points tonight, I do not expect their defense to be in lockdown mode. Keep in mind, they have a much tougher game on deck with New Orleans tomorrow plus they did put in a lot of effort versus the Thunder Wednesday. In other words, this Friday game is likely to be an offensive showcase for the Warriors. The Bulls are off of back to back poor shooting performances but I expect them to get plenty of open looks in this one as the game goes on. The fact is that the Warriors are likely to get up about 20 points and then invariably complacency on defense sets in. That means the Bulls may finally break out of their scoring slump. The last 3 times the Bulls were held to 90 points or less they are a perfect 3-0 to the over. The last 7 times the Warriors have been held to 117 points or less they are a solid 5-2 to the over. Also, off of an upset loss as a favorite, the Warriors are 4-0 to the over this season. Combining the two perfect trends above we have a double perfect spot of 7-0 favoring the over in this one. I'll take it. 8* OVER the total in Golden State |
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11-24-17 | Pelicans v. Suns +6.5 | Top | 115-91 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
Situational Slam - Rickenbach NBA Friday 10* Phoenix Suns (+) vs New Orleans Pelicans @ 9:05 ET - The Suns may not be a very good basketball team but they are catching the Pelicans at the perfect time for an upset. Combining that with the fact that Phoenix is at home and also catching a half-dozen points and you have a great value spot for a home dog. New Orleans is in a horrible scheduling spot as they are off of their huge upset win over San Antonio and the Pelicans now have Golden State on deck. That said, it is certainly a difficult spot for New Orleans to be too concerned with Phoenix. As for the Suns, they are hungry off of a home loss to the Bucks and this the final home game for Phoenix until December 7th so they want to make the most of it! The Pelicans game against the Warriors is tomorrow at Golden State so the situation truly couldn't be much worse after they also dominated the Spurs Wednesday. New Orleans is 5-10 ATS (and 4-11 SU) when off of a game where they allowed 90 points or less. The last 4 games between these teams have been decided by an average margin of just 2.25 points per game. Tremendous home dog value here. 10* PHOENIX |
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11-24-17 | Duke v. Texas +7.5 | Top | 85-78 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
ESPN Top Game - Rickenbach CBB Game #580 Friday 10* Texas Longhorns (+) vs Duke Blue Devils @ 5:30 ET @ Phil Knight Invitational in Portland, OR - The Longhorns had a very disappointing campaign last season but they are a different team this season with Mohamed Bamba on board. The 6'11 center is a freshman and sure NBA draft pick. He combines with junior Dylan Osetkowski (6'9 - 250) to give the Longhorns some solid size in the paint this season. Osetkowski had to sit out last season after transferring from Tulane. Matt Coleman has proven to be a great find at point guard and he joins scorers Kerwin Roach and Andrew Jones to give the Horns a solid backcourt. Of course Duke is the #1 team in the country but this is a lot of points for a young Blue Devils team to lay against a Texas team that had 3 straight seasons of 20 or more wins before last season's disappointment. The Longhorns are already 4-0 this season. Duke is 6-0 but the strength of schedule for each of these undefeated teams is about the same and I love the line value of the big dog here. Duke is still a young team, as they showed in yesterday's disappointing first half versus Portland State and when the Blue Devils were tested earlier this season the final score was a bit of a phony final. Duke beat Michigan State by 7 points but the Spartans shot 50.8% from the field while the Blue Devils were held to 39.5% shooting! The Horns are 6-3 ATS as a neutral court dog of 6.5 to 9 points and also on a 13-7 ATS run after a game in which they held their opponent to 60 points or less. Duke is over-valued often and is on a 7-10 ATS run in tournament games. That means we have a 29-17 ATS spot favoring the Longhorns here. 10* TEXAS |
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11-24-17 | Eastern Michigan +9 v. Indiana | 67-87 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 39 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #527 Friday 8* Eastern Michigan Eagles (+) @ Indiana Hoosiers @ 4:30 ET - With Eastern Michigan having a lot of newcomers (including a handful that already had at least 2 years of Division 1 ball under their belts) it was hard to say how the Eagles would perform early this season. Although the competition certainly has been rather soft, the fact that Eastern Michigan is 4-0 and has won every game by double digits plus their defense has held their opponent under 41% shooting in all 4 games certainly says a lot. These Eagles are jelling quicker than expected. Also, it's not like 3-2 Indiana has played a contingent of heavyweights either early this season. In fact, 2 of the 3 wins that the Hoosiers have came against the same team and by virtually identical margins as 2 of the Eagles 4 wins. The point is that we're getting a lot of line value here with the big dog Eagles as this game means a ton to Eastern Michigan. As for Indiana, they have got a huge game with Duke in less than a week plus then Big Ten conference action begins after that. The Eagles defense has been impressive early this season and they are the much more rested team as they have been off since Sunday while the Hoosiers just played Wednesday. Eastern Michigan is 2-0 ATS as a road dog of 6.5 to 9 points and 2-0 ATS when playing with 5 or 6 days of rest between games. The Hoosiers are 3-6 ATS when playing with 1 day or less of rest between games and 2-5 ATS on Fridays. That means we have angles of a combined 15-5 (75%) favoring the Eagles. 8* EASTERN MICHIGAN |
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11-23-17 | Vanderbilt +6.5 v. Virginia | 42-68 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 30 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #729 Thursday 8* Vanderbilt Commodores (+) vs Virginia Cavaliers @ Barclays Center in Brooklyn, NY @ 4 ET - The Commodores have yet to cover a game this season but that is helping to give some extra line value here and Vanderbilt is 3-0 ATS the past two seasons when they have entered a game on an ATS losing streak of 3 games or more. Also, this is a low total which tells you of course that this game will be played with points at a premium and Vandy is 33-20 ATS long-term in games with a posted total in the 120s. The Cavaliers are on a long-term run of 33-47 ATS in all tournament games and I look for Virginia to drop to 1-4 ATS when they are a neutral court favorite in a range of 6.5 to 9 points. The Commodores lost by just 4 points to USC in their most recent game and the Cavs have a huge game on deck with Wisconsin. Truly the set up here and the motivational factors are largely in favor of the sizable road dog. I am grabbing all the points I can get but an outright upset would not be a complete surprise! 8* VANDERBILT |
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11-22-17 | Clippers v. Hawks OVER 209 | Top | 116-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Hawks vs Los Angeles Clippers @ 7:35 ET - The Clippers are off of an ugly turnover-filled game against the Knicks. The Hawks are off of a typical grinding game against the Spurs. However, now these two struggling teams face off and they are both in a situation they view as a winnable game. Keep in mind, Los Angeles has lost 9 straight while Atlanta has the worst record in the NBA. With that said, a winnable game is a big deal and I look for these two to push the pace in this one as each goes hard for that much needed victory. The Clippers are 3-0 to the over when off of an upset loss as a favorite. The Hawks have played a road-heavy schedule and that is significant to the value here as they are 5-1 to the over in home games this season. This total has been on a downward move since it was posted and you know what that means. Even more value here. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta |
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11-22-17 | Appalachian State +2.5 v. James Madison | Top | 99-105 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Game #529 Wednesday 10* Top Play Appalachian State Mountaineers (+) @ James Madison Dukes @ 4 ET - Even though the Mountaineers and Dukes are both returning from tournaments, the Dukes were in the Bahamas and lost their final game while the Mountaineers Puerto Rico tourney was relocated and so their final game was in South Carolina. Also, that final game was a win for Appalachian State and the 3-2 Mountaineers have looked much better than the 1-4 Dukes early this season. We're getting line value because this game is at James Madison and because the Dukes are seeking revenge. The reason they won't get revenge is that the Mountaineers are the superior team that has also shown great resiliency with the strong second half performance against UTEP keying that win. I expect another such effort here. I also like the fact that Appalachian State had tough match-ups with Western Michigan and Iowa State prior to that game. As for James Madison, ever since their game against an overmatched foe in their season opener, they've shot very poorly and their defense has not impressed either. This will be the Dukes 4th game in 6 days too. For the Mountaineers they have the rest edge and also are riding the momentum of their win over UTEP! James Madison is on a 5-17 ATS run in non-conference games. 10* APPALACHIAN STATE |
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11-22-17 | Eastern Kentucky v. Eastern Washington -113 | 62-83 | Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #570 Wednesday 8* Eastern Washington Eagles vs Eastern Kentucky Colonels @ 2 ET @ T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV - Eastern Washington has certainly been "up and down" early this season but they did step up for a big win over Stanford and the Eagles have played a tougher schedule than Eastern Kentucky. I also like the fact that the Colonels have issues in the back-court right guard with 3 guards, including Asante Gist, all listed on the injury report. Even if Gist plays he won't be near 100% with the way his foot is bothering him. The Colonels only tough match-up this season was against Mississippi State and Eastern Kentucky allowed 85 points in that game. Eastern Washington has been done in by some hot shooting from the opposition in recent games but at least comes into this game battle tested as the line in their last 4 games has averaged +11. As you can see, unlike the Colonels, the Eagles have consistently faced tough competition and that will pay off here. Also, Eastern Kentucky is 6-11 SU when playing with one day of rest or less between games. The Eagles are 25-11 SU when they are a favorite. 8* EASTERN WASHINGTON |
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11-22-17 | Tennessee v. Purdue -8.5 | 78-75 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 47 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #550 Wednesday 8* Purdue Boilermakers (-) vs Tennessee Volunteers @ Noon ET in Bahamas (Battle for Atlantis) - The Boilermakers have more games under their belt than the Volunteers. Purdue already 4-0 on the season and Tennessee is only 2-0 and the Vols have played a weaker schedule. At least Purdue has faced Marquette. Also, the Volunteers have been off for over a week and that could effect their play here. As for the Boilermakers, they just played on Saturday and are shooting the ball very well now and should maintain their hot shooting considering it is just a short break. Also Purdue's summer trip to Taiwan for the World University games really benefited them as well. Tennessee is 0-4 ATS as a neutral court underdog of 6.5 to 9 points. The Boilermakers are 3-0 ATS against SEC competition in recent seasons. Double perfect 7-0 ATS spot working in our favor here. I'll take it! 8* PURDUE |
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11-21-17 | Bulls v. Lakers OVER 210.5 | 94-103 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 36 m | Show | |
NBA TV Smash - Rickenbach NBA Tuesday 8* OVER the total in Los Angeles Lakers vs Chicago Bulls @ 10:35 ET - The Lakers have gone over the total in 3 straight games. Those 3 games have averaged about 228 points per game and I expect a similar result here. The Bulls just have not been playing defense. Chicago has allowed 50% or more from the field in 5 of their last 6 games. As a result the over is 4-2 in the Bulls last 6 games and I am expecting another one here. Chicago has shot about 46.5% the last two games and confidence is up on the offensive end. Also, the Bulls though are fired up about not putting away the Suns when they had a chance in Phoenix Sunday so they'll keep their foot on the gas this time in terms of production on offense. The Lakers are averaging 116.3 points per game their last 3 games so I look for Los Angeles to score right along with them in this one. The game should be played at a good pace as it is a non-conference match-up that should feature plenty of run and gun. 3 of the last 4 meetings (including both here in LA) have gone over the total. The over is 15-9 when the Lakers are off of a game where they scored 115 points or more. Look for the over to improve to 6-3 in Chicago's road games this season as both teams employ plenty of "run and gun" in this one. 8* OVER the total in Los Angeles Lakers |
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11-21-17 | CS-Northridge -120 v. SE Missouri State | 59-74 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 7 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Game #729 Tuesday 8* Cal State Northridge Matadors (-) vs Southeast Missouri State Redhawks @ 3 ET in Cancun, Mexico - I know this is a match-up involving smaller schools but sometimes this is where the best value is found. Cal State Northridge has the edge in size, experience, and depth. Also, the Matadors are off of a tough OT loss to George Mason that has them fired up for this game. The Redhawks youth and inexperience has led to some tough stretches with untimely turnovers, too many fouls from poor positioning on defense, and an inability to get key buckets with needed. The Matadors will prove to be too much for this young Southeast Missouri State team that still needs some seasoning. Cal State Northridge has built their team with transfers and I like what I am seeing early this season. Look for the Matadors to improve to 3-0 ATS on the young season. The Redhawks don't have the shooters to match up with the Matodors either! 8* CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE |
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11-20-17 | Jazz v. 76ers OVER 210.5 | Top | 86-107 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
Earliest Cash Top Play - Rickenbach NBA Monday 10* OVER the total in Philadelphia 76'ers vs Utah Jazz @ 7:05 ET - The Jazz scored 125 points in their blowout win at Orlando Saturday. Utah is 7-3 to the over when they are off of a game where they scored 115 points or more. The over is 8-3 in the last 11 games for the Jazz and they've really picked up the pace on this road trip. Overall, the over is 4-0 in Utah's last 4 games away from home. The 76'ers are off of a home loss to Golden State. The Philly defense was crushed for 124 points and the over is now 8-2 in Philadelphia's last 10 games. As a favorite this season the over is 4-1 in Sixers game and, when off of a non-conference game, the over is 7-1 in Philadelphia's games. The Sixers are averaging 112.5 points per game their last 11 games. The Jazz are averaging 110.8 points per game their last 4 road games. When these teams met in Utah the game barely stayed under the total even though the Jazz shot only 30% from the field. In fact, Utah attempted 99 shots in that game! They'll get some payback here, at least in terms of better offensive production. However, the upstart 76'ers will be scoring big right along with them. The result should be a shootout. 10* OVER the total in Philadelphia |
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11-20-17 | Richmond +7.5 v. UAB | 63-50 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Game #749 Monday 8* Richmond Spiders (+) vs UAB Blazers @ 5 ET @ John Gray Gymnasium in George Town, Cayman Islands - The Spiders did burn me but I won't hesitate to come right back with them in this match-up in the Cayman Islands Classic. Richmond has simply been done in by unbelievably hot shooting by their opponent in their first two games. That is why the Spiders sit at 0-2 on the season. The Blazers are a perfect 3-0 on the season but have faced a very weak schedule. This line opened around a 5 and is now as high as a 7.5 as of early Monday morning. The result is great line value here. Richmond is not only 0-2 to the start the season but it was an embarrassing home loss that opened up their season. Under head coach Chris Mooney, the Spiders had been 10-1 in season openers. Suffice to say, you are going to see an angry Richmond team take the floor early Monday evening after their losses to Delaware and Jacksonville State to begin the season. Even though the Spiders are a notch down from last season's team, they are still projected to finish in the middle of the pack in the Atlantic 10. Even though guard Khwan Fore is out for the Spiders, they still have a very talented backcourt which is the strength of their team. Look for that to be the difference in this game as Richmond responds after an embarrassing start to the season. The Spiders are 6-2 SU when playing with 5 or 6 days of rest between games. The Blazers are 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS in all neutral court games. 8* RICHMOND |
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11-19-17 | Bulls +3 v. Suns | 105-113 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Sunday 8* Chicago Bulls (+) @ Phoenix Suns @ 8:05 ET - The Bulls are 3-10 this season and the Suns are 6-11 and yet Phoenix is only favored by 3 at home? Looks "funny" doesn't it? Long-time followers know how I feel about "strange" lines and the fact is that the Suns being favored only by the home court edge should tell you something since Phoenix has twice as many wins as Chicago so far this season! The moral of the story is don't fall for the trap! I am looking for the Bulls to get the outright upset here but happy to grab the points. Chicago has failed to cover only twice in seven road games this season and they also have momentum off of a win. The Suns are on a 15-27 ATS run as a favorite and also are just 10-25 SU when off of an upset win as an underdog. After winning as a sizable dog versus the Lakers at Los Angeles Friday, Phoenix will fall flat in this one! 8* CHICAGO |
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11-19-17 | Fordham +5 v. Tulane | 55-63 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
FTM Blowout Rout - Rickenbach CBB Game #771 Sunday 8* Fordham Rams (+) @ Tulane Green Wave @ 7:30 ET - The Rams just couldn't hit shots versus Florida State's defense Friday but they face a much weaker foe in Tulane Sunday evening! The Green Wave are 3-0 and Fordham is 1-2 but the Rams have played the tougher schedule. That is why this line is much smaller than many would expect. As usual, I like to "Fade The Masses" which is what the FTM stands for and I'll grab the 1-2 Rams getting only a handful of points. Look for their tenacious defense to be the difference and they are angry off of their loss to the Seminoles. Tulane is 1-12 SU and 1-10 ATS in games against teams that are allowing 64 points or less per game! 8* FORDHAM |
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11-18-17 | Texas-Arlington +8 v. BYU | 89-75 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
FTM Blowout Rout - Rickenbach CBB Game #527 Saturday 8* Texas-Arlington Mavericks (+) @ Brigham Young Cougars @ 9:30 ET - UT-Arlington upset the Cougars in March so this is a revenge game for BYU. As a result, everyone is lining up on Brigham Young here and I am happy to FTM here which means Fade The Masses! Even though the Mavericks lost some star power from last season's team, the Mavs still have the inside-outside combo of Kevin Hervey and Erick Neal. Also, BYU's Nick Emery left the team. The Cougars are certainly a quality team but the Mavericks are a dangerous and well-coached underdog as Scott Cross does a great job with this program. Texas-Arlington is again projected to be near the top of the SunBelt Conference. Though Brigham Young comes from the tougher West Coast Conference, the losses of Eric Mika and Emery are big for this team. Also, BYU is 1-6 ATS when off of a game where they allowed 60 points or less. The Mavericks are an incredible 46-22 ATS as an underdog! Grab the points! 8* TEXAS-ARLINGTON |
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11-18-17 | Bucks v. Mavs +7.5 | 79-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Saturday 8* Dallas Mavericks (+) vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 9:05 ET - The Mavs were up big on the Timberwolves at the half yesterday but then blew the game and ended up losing big. The key though is that Dallas was able to get a lot of rest in the 2nd half of the game because Minnesota pulled away. That means that, even with this being a back to back spot for the Mavericks, it is not a bad spot to back the hungry home dog. Milwaukee comes in hot on a 4-game winning streak but they could look right past this non-conference foe that sports an ugly record. Also, the Bucks are just 1-3 in their last 4 road games. With this being the Bucks only road game in a span of nearly a dozen days, this match-up has "trap game" written all over it. 8* DALLAS |
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11-17-17 | Pistons v. Pacers OVER 209.5 | Top | 100-107 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach Friday NBA 10* Top Play OVER the total in Indiana Pacers vs Detroit Pistons @ 7:05 ET - The Pacers are off of a big win at Memphis but their defense continues to be an issue. Indiana has allowed their opponents to hit at least 50% from the field in 6 of their last 8 games. Also, one of those 2 "better" games on defense the Pacers still allowed 47.8% from the field. Indiana has allowed 107 points or more in 7 of their last 8 games. The Pistons are off of a low-scoring loss at Milwaukee and will be fired up here. That defeat ended a stretch of 5 straight wins for Detroit and the Pistons allowed 110 points per game in those 5 games. Overall, Detroit has won 8 of its last 10 games and they've averaged 110.3 points per game in those 8 victories. The over is 4-1 in the Pistons last 5 games and 5-3 in the Pacers last 8 games. The over is 4-2 this season in Detroit's games against teams with a losing record. Look for the over to improve to 6-3 in Pacers games this month as the Pistons were held to 35.3% from the field versus the Bucks Wednesday and Detroit is 3-0 to the over this season when off of a game where they held under 43% from the field. 10* OVER the total in Indiana |
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11-17-17 | Fordham +15 v. Florida State | 43-67 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #775 Friday 8* Fordham Rams (+) @ Florida State Seminoles @ 6 ET - The Rams are a different team since Jeff Neubauer took over as head coach. Now in his 3rd season at Fordham, there has been a big transition with an emphasis on defense. Even though the Rams have played a couple of teams that are not on par with FSU to start this season, their defense has nonetheless been impressive. Fordham is allowing just 36% from the field and they are 1-1 with their lone loss coming by a single point. Even though Florida State is the better team and certainly highly likely to get the win here, the points are simply too much in my opinion. The Seminoles lost 4 starters from last season's team and also could get caught looking ahead to a much tougher match-up as they have Colorado State on deck for Sunday. The Noles are only 4-11 ATS in games with a posted total in the 140s. Also, Florida State is 5-10 ATS in all neutral court games and in those where they are favored by 12.5 points or more they are 0-4 ATS. 8* FORDHAM |
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11-16-17 | Rockets v. Suns OVER 228 | Top | 142-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
TV Top Play - Rickenbach NBA Thursday 10* OVER the total in Phoenix Suns vs Houston Rockets @ 10:35 ET - Both teams play fast. Their pace is among the fastest in the league. The Rockets are off of a home loss to Toronto and that means they won't take their foot off of the gas in this game against out-classed Phoenix. Houston has gone over the total in 6 of their last meetings versus the Suns and Phoenix comes into this one well-rested. The Suns have been off since Monday and Phoenix is an incredible 18-3 to the over when they are playing with 2 days of rest between games. Also, when playing against a team that averages 106 points or more per game, the Suns are on a 32-14 run to the over. Both these teams have been weak defending the 3-ball as the Rockets are allowing 38.8% and the Suns are allowing 38.2% this season. Neither team is interested in slowing this game down and that should lead to an absolute shootout in this one with plenty of "run and gun". 10* OVER the total in Phoenix |
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11-16-17 | Xavier +3.5 v. Wisconsin | 80-70 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #515 Thursday 8* Xavier Musketeers (+) @ Wisconsin Badgers @ 8:30 ET - A lot of books opened this one up at -1 on the Badgers. The line has driven all the way up to a -3.5 and of course everyone is liking Wisconsin on their home floor and with a big frontcourt edge. However, how healthy is Ethan Happ? One of the best players in the nation is definitely expected to play tonight but his knee is bothering him and it will be interesting to see how he fairs in Wisconsin's first big game of the new season. Keep in mind, the Badgers are a fantastic basketball program but they are replacing the majority of their starters from last season. Also, Xavier comes into this game not just with revenge but MAJOR revenge as they lost to the Badgers on a last-second shot in tourney time in March of 2016. The Musketeers have waited a long time for this rematch and they'll make the most of it. They have key returning talent from last season's team and of course they are ranked in the top 20 for a reason. We are simply getting line value here because the Badgers have an incredible reputation especially on their home floor. I'll grab the generous points being offered to Xavier. The Musketeers are on a 21-11 ATS run in non-conference games and also are 12-6 ATS in road games with a posted total between 145 and 149.5 points. The Badgers are on a 4-9 ATS run in all games with a posted total between 140 and 149.5 points. 8* XAVIER |
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11-15-17 | Creighton +4.5 v. Northwestern | 92-88 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #735 Wednesday 8* Creighton Bluejays (+) @ Northwestern Wildcats @ 9 ET - Let's see...the Wildcats are ranked and they are at home and they returned 4 starters from last season's team AND yet they opened up as low as a 3 point favorite in most books! Yes indeed Northwestern looks like an easy choice given all the above plus the fact that the Bluejays lost some key pieces from last season's team. You guys know it is NEVER that easy and I smell an upset here. The line has already bolted up to a 4.5 in most spots and I am happy to grab Creighton as a contrarian pick. These typically work well throughout the season. I have had a RARE rough start to the season but, rest assured, it will turn and when it does it will be in a big way! Creighton is known for hot shooting and they've hit 41.4% of their threes this season and Northwestern has allowed 41.9% of three this season. At the same time the Wildcats have hit only 29.7% of their threes while the Bluejays are allowing just 29.4% from beyond the arc this season. The Jays hot shooting and the fact that it is now the Wildcats with a target on their back will be all the difference here. Keep in mind, Northwestern had NEVER been in a preseason Top 25 poll in school history until this season and this is the Cats first tough test. I don't expect it to go well and, of course, the Bluejays are very well coached under Greg McDermott who turned down an offer from Ohio State to remain at Creighton. Do you think he did that aimlessly? Of course not! The Bluejays will continue to impress. 8* CREIGHTON |
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11-15-17 | Pacers v. Grizzlies -4 | Top | 116-113 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
Top Play Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Wednesday 10* Memphis Grizzlies (-) vs Indiana Pacers @ 8:05 ET - This line keeps dropping and I'll gladly step in. Memphis is all the way down to a 4 point favorite as of early game day morning. The only edge that the Pacers truly have is on the offensive end but the problem with that angle here is that they been held to average of only 99 points per game their last 3 games as they've shot under 45% in 2 of their last 3 games. The fact is that the Grizzlies have the far superior defense and also, of course, have the home court edge. The home team is actually a fantastic long-term 26-14 (65%) ATS in the last 40 meetings between these teams. Also the Pacers have allowed 47.8% or better from the field in 6 of their last 7 games including 5 straight games of at least 50%. Conversely, the Grizzlies are allowing just 43.1% shooting on the season! Also, Memphis has been better on the offensive end of late as well. The Grizzlies have shot over 47.5% from the field in 5 of their last 6 games and the one game they didn't reach that mark they shot a solid 46% from the field. The Grizzlies are 56-37 SU run in home games and the Pacers are on a 36-59 SU run in road games. With this line all the way down to a -4 I like my odds of not only the home win but also the cover. Additionally, Indiana is 0-3 SU and ATS this season when off of a game where they allowed 115 points or more. 10* MEMPHIS |
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11-14-17 | Raptors +7 v. Rockets | Top | 129-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
NBA TV Top Play - Rickenbach Tuesday NBA 10* Toronto Raptors (+) @ Houston Rockets @ 8:05 ET - This line looks a little "funny" at first glance and you know what that generally leads to! The fact is that this may be a bit of a contrarian play as most will want to back a red hot Houston team at home and laying a small number against a Raptors team that is only playing .500 ball in their last 10 games. The key to the advantage here is that Toronto has not played back to back games a single time this entire season. In fact, the Raptors enter this game having played just 7 games in the last 17 days! Conversely, the Rockets are playing for the 3rd time in 4 days and their 4th game in the last 6 days! The road team has won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these teams (SU and ATS). Toronto was favored at Boston Sunday but lost by a single point. The Raptors are 24-12 SU when off of an upset loss as a favorite. Whether or not Toronto gets the outright win here, I do expect them to drop the Rockets to 28-40 ATS in non-conference action! The Raptors have the fresher legs and they've faced the tougher schedule so far this season. 10* TORONTO |
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11-14-17 | Michigan State +2.5 v. Duke | 81-88 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach CBB #527 Tuesday 8* Michigan State Spartans (+) vs Duke Blue Devils @ 7 ET @ Chicago, IL (Champions Classic) - First off I generally like to play the #2 team in a match-up of #1 versus #2 but, of course, the key is if the value is there. In this case the value most certainly appears to be there with the #2 ranked Spartans. While Michigan State returned 4 starters this season, the Blue Devils are starting 4 freshmen! Also, even though this is a neutral site it certainly favors the Spartans in terms of proximity to their campus. I also like the fact that Duke is such a small favorite here even though they've beaten Michigan State 6 times. Remember, it is NEVER that easy. In other words, many will play the Blue Devils here and lay the short number just banking on the fact that Duke has won 6 straight over the Spartans. However, the reason the line is so low is because the experience factor and revenge factor certainly favors Michigan State in a big way. In terms of technical factors, the Spartans are 13-7 ATS (and 15-5 SU!) when off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. Duke is 8-12 ATS on a neutral court and I look for the Blue Devils to drop to 0-3 ATS (and SU!) when they are a favorite of 3 points or less neutral court. Duke is also only 3-6 ATS when playing on a Tuesday. When these teams met two years ago the Blue Devils were favored by double digits. Don't be fooled by this line. Look for the Spartans to win outright but grab any points you can get (some 2.5 out there at time of this posting). 8* MICHIGAN STATE |
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11-13-17 | Cavs v. Knicks OVER 218.5 | 104-101 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach Monday NBA 8* OVER the total in New York Knicks vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7:35 ET - The Knicks have gone over the total in 5 of their last 7 games and that comes as no surprised considering they have shot an insane 51.2% from the field during this red hot shooting stretch of 7 games. The Cavaliers have also been quite hot in their last 6 games and all 6 went over the total. I look for Cavs totals to improve to 7-0 to the over their last 7 games as Cleveland is shooting 49.6% from the field during this hot shooting stretch their past 6 games. Neither team has been playing particularly well on the other end of the floor so far this season. Yes, the Knicks allowed only 92 in their most recent game but previously they had allowed 110.3 points per game in their last 6 games! The Cavaliers allowed "only" 104 points in their most recent game but, prior to that, the Cavs had allowed 112 points or more in 10 straight games - an incredible stretch! Not only is the over 6-0 this month in Cleveland's games, the Cavaliers are now 24-9 to the over in November games! Look for the Knicks to improve to 4-1 to the over this season when they are off of a non-conference game! 8* OVER the total in New York |
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11-13-17 | La Salle v. Pennsylvania -118 | Top | 75-71 | Loss | -118 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
Top Play Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Game #722 Monday 10* Pennsylvania Quakers (-) vs LaSalle Explorers @ 7 ET - The Explorers returned all 5 starters from last season's team and, in their opener, took on a weak MAAC team (St Peters) that returned only 2 starters from last season's team. LaSalle shot lights out in their opener while the Peacocks struggled. Now the Explorers take on a much tougher foe as they face a Philly rival that has 4 starters back. Pennsylvania has defeated LaSalle each of the last two seasons and they are off of a season-opening loss that has them fired up here. The Quakers lost by 8 at Fairfield as the Stags shot very well in the game and Penn couldn't hit their shots. I like to look for a reversal of fortunes in games like this. Everything went right for LaSalle in their opening win, everything went wrong for Pennsylvania in their opening loss. Now this match-up of Philly teams plays out much differently than many expect. The Explorers are actually 0-6 ATS in road games with a posted total in the 140 to 144.5 range. LaSalle also is 1-6 ATS when they are off of a game where they allowed 60 points or less. The Quakers are 3-0 SU and ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less. 10* PENNSYLVANIA |
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11-13-17 | Jacksonville State v. Richmond -3 | 94-61 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 13 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #750 Monday 8* Richmond Spiders (-) vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks @ Noon ET - Richmond is off of an embarrassing home loss to open their season. They lost to the Delaware Friday and allowed the Fightin' Blue Hens to build a 33-point lead in that game. It was a sell-out home opener for the Spiders and, though they rallied in the 2nd half, Richmond still lost 76-63 when the final horn sounded. Under head coach Chris Mooney, the Spiders had been 10-1 in season openers. Suffice to say, you are going to see an angry Richmond team take the floor early Monday to host Jacksonville State. Even though the Spiders are a notch down from last season's team, they are still projected to finish in the middle of the pack in the Atlantic 10. As for the Gamecocks, they play in the weaker Ohio Valley Conference. Certainly the OVC is not without merit but it still is not on par with the A-10. Although Jacksonville State rolled in their opener, it had a lot to do with playing a team they were far superior to as they faced Tennessee Wesleyan in their season opener. Even though guard Khwan Fore is out for the Spiders, they still have a very talented backcourt which is the strength of their team. Conversely, Jacksonville State's weakest link is arguably the backcourt. Look for that to be the difference in this game as Richmond responds after an embarrassing home opener. The Gamecocks are 9-27 SU in games where they are an underdog and this is a very small number to lay with Richmond. The Spiders are 20-11 SU in games where they are a favorite. 8* RICHMONDÂ |
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11-12-17 | Yale +15 v. Wisconsin | 61-89 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
Dominator Special - Rickenbach CBB Game #521 Sunday 8* Yale Bulldogs (+) @ Wisconsin Badgers @ 6 ET - The Badgers are off of a huge win over South Carolina State but that is a team from the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference that is actually projected to finish toward the bottom of that weak conference. Now Wisconsin hosts a Yale team that is projected to be at the top of the Ivy League standings when all is said and done this season. I am aware of the fact that the Bulldogs are without guard Makai Mason but they did play better than the final score indicates in their season opening loss at Creighton. Of course the Bluejays are a solid team and tough to play in Nebraska but also Yale was simply done in by red-hot shooting from Creighton in that game! As for Wisconsin, they actually only led SC State by 11 points mid-way through the 2nd half before they went on a big 10-0 run that sealed the game in the eventual blowout win. Now the Badgers (whom lost 4 starters from last year) face a much tougher test Sunday. Wisconsin, of course, is still a far superior program to that of Yale but the Bulldogs can absolutely hang around in this game and have enough size and length inside to not be totally overwhelmed by the Badgers here. I expect Wiscy to win of course but I expect that win to be by 10 or less. Wisconsin is 4-9 ATS in games with a posted total in the 140s and the Badgers are 3-9 ATS in November games. Yale is a long-term 30-14 ATS when they are off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more. Also, the Bulldogs are 31-20 ATS as a road dog of 12.5 or more points. 8* YALE |
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11-12-17 | Heat +3.5 v. Pistons | Top | 103-112 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 60 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Sunday 10* Top Play Miami Heat (+) @ Detroit Pistons @ 4:05 ET - The Heat have faced a tougher schedule than the Pistons but they aren't getting much respect here as early indicators are that the public is all over Detroit in this match-up. I love getting teams like Miami plus the points. The Heat have been a different teams since Hassan Whiteside returned to the lineup and their defense is far superior to that of the Pistons. Detroit has allowed opponents to hit 49.6% from the field in their last 6 games. Miami has allowed opponents to hit only 41.1% from the field in their last 8 games! The key to the value here is the Pistons are 4-0 their last 4 games and 7-1 their last 8 games but that is taking attention away from a Heat team that is a solid 4-2 SU their last 6 and 4-1 ATS their last 5. Miami is off of an upset win at Utah but the Heat are actually a fantastic 24-10 ATS when coming off of an outright win as an underdog. The Pistons are 4-11 ATS (including 0-2 ATS already this season) when they are on a winning streak of 3 games or more. Grab the points here! 10* MIAMI |
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11-11-17 | Grizzlies v. Rockets OVER 210.5 | 96-111 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach Saturday NBA 8* OVER the total in Houston Rockets vs Memphis Grizzlies @ 8:05 ET - The Rockets have gone over the total in 5 straight games. Houston has been red hot with their shooting and, as usual, they are not playing very well on the defensive end. The Rockets have allowed 48.7% from the field in their last 5 games. What is surprising here and what is adding the value of this play is that the Grizzlies defense has not been nearly as strong as it usually is. Memphis has allowed 46.9% from the field in their last 4 games. The Rockets are averaging 119.8 points per game their last 5 games and the Grizzlies are averaging 104.3 points per game in winning 2 of their last 3. Memphis is off of an upset win at Portland and the over is 23-13 when they are off of an outright win as an underdog. The Rockets have lost both games against the Grizzlies this season but now they face them while they're red hot and the over is 3-1 when Houston is playing with revenge this season. Also, when on a winning streak of 3 or more games, the over is 22-13 in Rockets games. 8* OVER the total in Houston |
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11-11-17 | St. Joe's v. Toledo | 87-98 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 58 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #727 Saturday 8* St Joseph's Hawks (-) @ Toledo Rockets @ 7 ET - The Hawks are returning all their starters from last season but I am aware of Shavar Newkirk and Charlie Brown being out for this game. The key is they are still in far better shape than a Rockets team that lost 3 starters. Also, Toledo was counting on production from Willie Jackson and he is out due to eligibility issues. The Rockets may improve as the season goes on but, early on, they're counting on too many new pieces. That is why this line is a pick'em even though it is a revenge game for the Rockets (lost last year by a single point). Another key to the value though is that Toledo was down by 5 late in that game (line was St Joe's -2.5) so it was a bit of a tough beat that the Hawks lost that game. St Joseph's backers who lost that game will get some payback here. St Joe's is on a 17-7 ATS run in road games. The Hawks roll here. 8* ST JOSEPHSÂ |
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11-10-17 | Hawks v. Pistons OVER 208 | 104-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach Friday NBA 8* OVER the total in Detroit Pistons vs Atlanta Hawks @ 7:05 ET - These teams are 6-0 to the over in their last 7 meetings (one push). Also, the Hawks come into this match-up having gone over the total in 5 straight games. Atlanta has averaged 108.6 points per game their last 5 games but the Hawks have allowed 116 points per game their last 5 games. Both Atlanta and Detroit have shot very well from three point land so far this season. The Pistons have certainly been the better team on defense but look for the Hawks to really push the tempo in this one. Atlanta has fresh legs as they have been off since Monday. Both teams are missing some frontcourt players for this contest and that does a couple things that helps the over. It allows for more drives to the bucket and it also increases the odds that each team will rely more on outside shooting as well instead of just pounding the rock inside. The result is a good quick pace with plenty of threes being fired up. The Pistons are averaging 112.3 points per game in their last 4 home games and the Hawks just don't play much defense at all. Atlanta will again emphasize the offensive end (as they've been doing all season long) and the result is likely to be another loss by about the average margin they've been losing by. Looking at their last 5 games, as summarized above, the Hawks are scoring 108.6 but allowing 116. That would put this game right near the spread but well over the total and that's why my play here is on the over as 225 would truly not be a surprise. Look for the over to improve to 4-1 in the Pistons last 5 home games. Also, the over is 9-5 when Detroit enters a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more. Look for the over to improve to 4-0 in Atlanta's games against teams with a winning record this season. 8* OVER the total in Detroit |
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11-10-17 | Texas A&M v. West Virginia -6 | 88-65 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
ESPN Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Game #518 Friday 8* West Virginia Mountaineers (-) vs Texas A & M Aggies @ 6 ET - Give the Aggies a few games and they're going to be a much better team but, right now, they are without 6'10 forward Robert Williams and 6'1 point guard J.J. Caldwell. Williams is a tremendous front court player that was projected to a first round NBA draft pick had he not decided to return to the school. Caldwell redshirt freshman but the Aggies are counting on him greatly as a distributor on the offensive end and a key defender on the perimeter. Williams is suspended for two games to start the season and Caldwell is suspended for 4 games to begin this season. Even though the Mountaineers are without forward Esa Ahmad for the first semester due to eligibility issues, his loss is much less impacting than what the Aggies are dealing with their first few games. With that said, there is great line value here with the Mountaineers laying only a half-dozen points. They are among the top ten teams in the nation and they take on a short-handed Aggies team that arguably shouldn't even be ranked in the top 25. This game is being played on a neutral floor at Rammstein Air Force Base in Germany. In this Armed Forces Classic on a neutral floor the defense of 'Press Virginia' is likely to be even more troublesome for the Aggies. Texas A & M turned the ball over 23 times last season in their loss to the Mountaineers. In that game West Virginia won by only 4 points but they blew a 20 point lead in the game. They won't make the same mistake here. Look for the Mountaineers to again get up big and this time they'll stay up big. The Mountaineers are 6-1 ATS in November games. The Aggies are 5-11 ATS as an underdog. Also, Texas A & M is 5-14 ATS in games where the total is posted in a range of 130 to 139.5 points. 8* WEST VIRGINIA |
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11-09-17 | Cavs v. Rockets OVER 228 | Top | 113-117 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
Top Play Dominator - Rickenbach Thursday NBA 10* OVER the total in Houston Rockets vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:05 ET - Will anybody be playing defense in this game? The Rockets have the better numbers on the season but, in their last 5 games, Houston has allowed 47.2% from the field. Also, in the Rockets last two home games they've allowed 112.5 points per game. Of course the Cavaliers defense has been so bad this season that it's making headlines! That's what happens when you're allowing 114 points per game, 48.5% field goal percentage, and 41.9% three pointers! The Cavs defense is in trouble here as the Rockets are well rested and those fresh legs are ready to add to a 3-game run that has seen Houston average 125 points per game. Of course the key to the over here is the fact that Cleveland's offensive production is also "through the roof" of late! The Cavaliers are averaging 119 points per game their last 4 games and all 4 went over the total. Houston is also on a 4-0 run to the over! The Rockets are also 16-8 to the over when off of a game where they scored 130 points or more. The Cavaliers are 19-9 to the over in games with a posted total of 220 points or more. Also, Cleveland is 25-11 to the over when they are off of a game where they allowed 115 points or more. 10* OVER the total in Houston |
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11-09-17 | Pelicans +5.5 v. Raptors | 118-122 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA Thursday 8* New Orleans Pelicans (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 7:35 ET - The Raptors have failed to cover 3 of their last 4 games and also won't be fully focused on New Orleans as Toronto has a big game at Boston on deck. For the Pelicans, they have won and covered each of their first 3 games on this 4-game road trip and they are eager to complete the perfect run with one more win tonight. New Orleans is the team with the motivation tonight as they have lost each of their last 4 meetings with the Raptors including losing by just 2 points in their most recent visit to Toronto. New Orleans has a powerful front court and should dominate the paint and the glass in this match-up. Also, the Pelicans are 3-1 (SU and ATS) in non-conference games this season. The Raptors historically have struggled against teams that can really "fill it up". Against teams that average 106 points or more per game, Toronto has gone 15-22 SU in recent season and is an ugly 26-64 SU long-term! I'll gladly take the points here! 8* NEW ORLEANSÂ |
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11-09-17 | Lakers v. Wizards -10.5 | 95-111 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
Rickenbach Thursday NBA 8* Washington Wizards (-) vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 7:05 ET - The Wizards are off of a 14 point home loss to Dallas. That means they missed the spread by nearly 25 points in that game as they were favored by close to double digits in that one! Washington will be ready to make amends for that horrific effort and they'll do it by getting revenge over a Lakers team that snuck out a 3-point win over the Wizards two weeks ago in Los Angeles. The Lakers lost by double digits at Boston but the 11 point loss could have been much worse as the Celtics scored 107 points even though they only shot 38.8% from the field in that game. That says a lot right there! The Lakers are on a 36-50 ATS run in road games. The Wizards are 52-35 ATS when playing with revenge and also 17-10 ATS when off of an upset loss as a favorite. This home team is angry and ready to initiate a beating on a LA team in the 2nd night of a back to back. The Wizards won't take their foot off of the gas here. 8* WASHINGTON |
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11-08-17 | Knicks +5.5 v. Magic | 99-112 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash Wednesday - Rickenbach NBA 8* New York Knicks (+) @ Orlando Magic @ 7:05 ET - The Knicks are in a back to back spot here but the key is that New York has a ton of momentum right now and their starters really didn't play a ton of minutes last night. That is always a key to look at when analyzing a back to back situation and the Knicks 5 starters averaged just 29 minutes each and not a single player in the 9 man rotation played more than 36 minutes. New York's shooting has been on fire and, riding the momentum of last night's come from behind win, the Knicks head to Orlando with a ton of confidence. New York has won (and covered) 6 of its last 7 games. The Knicks have averaged 111.4 points per game during this 7-game stretch. The Magic have been at the other end of the spectrum of late. Orlando is off of back to back losses and have averaged just 85.5 points per game in those two defeats. While it is true that the Magic will be the more rested team here, the fact is that when a team needs to get it's shooting touch back not playing games actually can be a detriment. Orlando hasn't had a good shooting game since LAST Wednesday! As for the Knicks, they are so hot right now with their shooting that the best thing for them is to keep playing and, keep in mind, Kristaps Porzingis was held under 30 points last night for just the 3rd time in 10 games this season and yet New York still got the win. The 7'3 Knick is averaging 30 points per game this season and shooting the ball very well and that hot shooting continued last night though he finished with 28 points. The road team has won and covered each of the last 3 meetings between these teams and the Knicks overall went 3-1 SU and ATS versus the Magic last season. New York is 4-0 SU and ATS against teams that allow 106 points or more per game this season. The Magic are 0-3 SU and ATS against Atlantic Division opponents. Look for those trends to remain perfect here as the Knicks continue to be an early season surprise! 8* NEW YORK KNICKS |
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11-07-17 | Hornets +1 v. Knicks | Top | 113-118 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
Top Play Dominator - Rickenbach Tuesday NBA 10* Charlotte Hornets (+) @ New York Knicks @ 7:35 ET - Charlotte opened up as a -2 here even though the Hornets are only 1-4 (both SU and ATS) in road games this season and the Knicks are 4-2 (both SU and ATS) in home games this season. Must be some kind of mistake here, right? Of course that's why there has been a big early move toward New York here but, as I have stated many times before, the odds makers know what they are doing! In other words, the Hornets opened up as a favorite here for a reason and, after the move that has taken Charlotte from a -2 to a +1 here, I have no hesitation in going with a top play here. Keep in mind, the Knicks are off of a huge come from behind win versus the Pacers where New York rallied from a huge deficit in the 2nd half. Also, the Hornets have revenge here from losing both games at New York last season with each defeat coming by 3 points or less. The Knicks have a game at Orlando on deck for tomorrow while the Hornets, after yesterday's off-day, have two more days off after this game. Charlotte is off of back to back losses and the last one was by 18 points. Look for the Hornets to improve to 3-0 (SU and ATS) this season when off of a loss by a double digit margin. The Knicks are 10-26 SU when off of an upset win as an underdog and New York won't have enough left in the tank after that surprising rally against the Pacers Sunday. 10* CHARLOTTE |
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11-07-17 | Pelicans +1 v. Pacers | 117-112 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Tuesday 8* New Orleans Pelicans (+) @ Indiana Pacers @ 7:05 ET - The Pacers are hoping to bounce back after consecutive losses. However, the concern for Indiana is they've allowed their opponents to shoot 50% from the field in 3 straight games! As for the Pelicans, they've been at the other end of the spectrum as they have been playing fantastic defense and have held each of their last two opponents under 39% from the field. Couple that with the fact that the New Orleans big men down low are going to cause all sorts of trouble for the Pacers and you have a fantastic value spot to back the Pelicans in this one. Indiana is toward the end of a 6 games in 9 days stretch while New Orleans comes into this one rested after back to back days off the past two days. The Pelicans are on a 14-7 ATS run versus Central Division opponents and they are also 4-2 (SU and ATS) on the road this season. The Pacers are on a 27-38 ATS run in non-conference games and have a big divisional game against the Central Division leading Pistons tomorrow at Detroit! Tough spot for Indiana and a great spot to fade them with the Pelicans as they continue to be "road warriors" early this season. 8* NEW ORLEANS |
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11-06-17 | Celtics v. Hawks OVER 204.5 | 110-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Monday 8* OVER the total in Atlanta Hawks vs Boston Celtics @ 7:35 ET - The Hawks are off of a huge upset win at Cleveland yesterday. Even though Atlanta's defense has been a glaring weakness early this season, the Hawks hot streak on the offensive end has been quite impressive. I don't see that coming to an end now that they're back on their home floor for this one tonight. The Hawks have shot 46.4% from the field in their last 4 games and averaged 109 points per game during this stretch. The Celtics should have no problem scoring at will in this game as the Hawks have allowed an average of 117.5 points per game the last 4 games. Boston, like Atlanta, is off of a win yesterday. Certainly the Celtics defense has been impressive early this season but I don't expect them to fare well in this back to back spot of consecutive road games and facing a Hawks team that is loaded with confidence right now. Keep in mind, Boston viewed the Orlando game as a much tougher game than this one. Likewise, Atlanta viewed the match-up with LeBron James and company as a bigger game than this one. The point is, especially with both the Hawks and Celtics off of wins yesterday, it is only natural that there will be a bit of a let-up on defense in this one given the situation. The over is 4-0 in the Hawks last 4 games. The Celtics only back to back situation this season saw Boston allow their season high in points (108) and that game went over the total. Look for a similar result in this one! 8* OVER the total in Atlanta |
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11-05-17 | Grizzlies -130 v. Lakers | Top | 102-107 | Loss | -130 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA 10* Top Play Memphis Grizzlies (-) @ Los Angeles Lakers @ 9:35 ET - The Grizzlies line is starting to move from a 2 to a 2.5 but also, if you have access to the money line, that is available as low as a -130 and certainly is the best option here if you can get that. Even though this is a back to back for the Grizzlies, keep in mind they have gone 22-14 ATS when playing the 2nd night of a back to back. Also, their game yesterday was a day game and it was right here in LA on this very same floor. The Grizzlies shot well in the game and now Memphis is looking at those very same rims and same shooting backdrop tonight. They're facing a Lakers team that is off of a rare big win as Los Angeles crushed Brooklyn by double digits Friday. That is noteworthy here because the Lakers are 6-13 ATS (and 4-15 SU) when off of a win by a double digit margin! Comparing these two teams, Memphis is the much better team defensively and they also shoot the 3-ball better than the Lakers too. Even though this is a back to back for the Grizzlies, they did have 2 full days off prior to this. The Lakers are playing their 3rd game in 4 days so the rest factor is not necessarily in LA's favor here. I also like the fact that Memphis has a 3-game winning streak and a 2-game winning streak already this season. Coming off of a single win (yesterday) I look for that to begin the next streak for the Grizzlies. As for the Lakers, they are off of a win and they have yet to win back to back games this season. I'll gladly challenge them to do that here! 10* MEMPHIS |
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11-05-17 | Hawks v. Cavs OVER 218 | 117-115 | Win | 100 | 5 h 24 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Sunday 8* OVER the total in Cleveland Cavaliers vs Atlanta Hawks @ 3:05 ET - The Hawks have gone over the total in 3 straight games. All 3 games totaled at least 223 points. Atlanta has allowed 49% shooting in those 3 games and now they face a Cavaliers team that has been red hot with their recent shooting performances. The Cavs have averaged 118.5 points per game in their last 2 games and have shot 53% from the field. The fact that Cleveland won their most recent game and the fact that they are shooting "lights out" means that their biggest weakness of late will continue to not get enough attention. The Cavs defense has simply been poor! They've allowed 117.3 points per game their last 7 games. Opponents have made 50.4% of their shots from the field in their last 3 games against Cleveland. All 4 meetings between these teams went over the total last season. The Cavs are 22-9 to the over when facing poor defensive teams (allowing 106 points or more per game) and the Cavaliers are also 7-1 to the over when they're off of a game where they scored 130 points or more. 8* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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11-04-17 | Mavs v. Wolves OVER 214 | Top | 99-112 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach Saturday NBA 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Timberwolves vs Dallas Mavericks @ 8:05 ET - The Timberwolves are off of an under but it was their first of the season through 8 games as they've been an "over machine" so far. The Mavericks are also off of an under but they had gone over the total in 3 straight games prior to last night's low-scoring battle with New Orleans. Even though that game was low-scoring it had a lot to do with poor shooting for the Mavs and Pelicans. That said, with Dallas off of back to back poor shooting games, I look for them to get back on track tonight at Minnesota as the Timberwolves are allowing 113 points per game on 51% shooting this season! The Mavericks are allowing 107.4 points per game on 48% shooting this season. These teams have trended under in recent meetings but the situation here dictates a high-scoring shootout! 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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11-03-17 | Rockets -8 v. Hawks | Top | 119-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
Top Play Dominator - Rickenbach Friday NBA 10* Houston Rockets (-) @ Atlanta Hawks @ 7:35 ET - The key with laying sizable points in basketball is that motivation is a key. Of course the Rockets are the much better team than the Hawks as that is why they opened up as 8-point favorites here even though this game is at Atlanta. That said, is the motivation there for a blowout win? In this case it is there to the 7th power! Ironically, the Hawks have lost 7 straight games this season as they prepare for this match-up and the Rockets have lost 7 straight games to Atlanta! That includes sweeps each of the past two seasons where the Hawks got the ATS cover in all 4 games too! As you would expect with these results, Houston has plenty of motivation here. The Rockets got their shooters rolling in their huge 22 point win at New York on Wednesday and now they take on an Atlanta team that just doesn't have the firepower to keep up with them. This Hawks team is absolutely a shell of the former Atlanta teams that used to give the Rockets trouble. Atlanta's 7-game losing streak has featured 5 defeats by double digit margins and I expect another one here. The Hawks just got blasted by the 76ers by 10 points on Wednesday and Atlanta is 0-4 SU and 0-4 ATS when off of a loss by double digits this season. Long-term the Hawks are 18-27 (40%) ATS in this situation. Atlanta is allowing 109 points per game this season and the Rockets are 28-19 ATS and 39-8 SU the L3 seasons combined when they are facing a poor defensive team (allowing 106 points or more per game). The Rockets are seeking revenge here so they won't let up and they blast the Hawks by double digits in this one! 10* HOUSTON |
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11-02-17 | Warriors v. Spurs OVER 216 | 112-92 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
TNT Dominator - Rickenbach Thursday NBA 8* OVER the total in San Antonio Spurs vs Golden State Warriors @ 8:05 ET - This total has gone from nearly 220 down to a 216 as of early gameday morning and I love the value being offered here. The Spurs have been without Tony Parker and, most importantly, Kawhi Leonard. San Antonio also has been without Joffrey Lauvergne, a role player. The point is that without all these missing pieces I feel you're going to see Golden State dictate the pace and flow of this game even though it is being played in San Antonio. The Warriors are shooting a ridiculous 52.6% from the field including 40.4% from beyond the arc! That is why Golden State is averaging 121 points per game. The Spurs defense has been struggling recently as they've allowed 49.5% from the field in their last 4 games! San Antonio has allowed 104.8 points per game in those 4 games but it only gets tougher here with the high-flying Warriors in town. Yes, this is a revenge game for San Antonio but they are short-handed and will struggle to slow down a "stacked" and red-hot Warriors team. Look for the over to improve to 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these teams. The over is 17-6 in the Spurs last 23 games as an underdog. The over is a solid 6-2 in Golden State's games this season. The over is also 26-16 when the Warriors enter a game with 2 days of rest between contests. They are rested here with fresh legs and they know the best way to defeat the Spurs is to create a fast-paced game filled with transition opportunities. The Warriors will do just that! 8* OVER the total in San Antonio |
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11-01-17 | Rockets v. Knicks OVER 212 | Top | 119-97 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
ESPN Top Play Dominator - Rickenbach Wednesday NBA 10* OVER the total in New York Knicks vs Houston Rockets @ 8:05 ET - The Knicks are hot and have won 3 straight games. This is New York's first 3 game win streak of this season but the past two seasons combined they've gone 7-1 to the over when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more. Surprisingly, the Rockets have trended under the total early this season but they are 15-7 to the over the past 2+ seasons in their games against Atlantic Division opponents. Generally not a lot of defensive intensity in match-ups like this and, keep in mind, the Rockets have averaged 123.5 points per game in their last two games against the Knicks. Houston made 36 of 95 three pointers in those 2 games versus New York last season. As for the Knicks, they did hit 40% of their threes when they hosted the Rockets last season and New York comes into this game having averaged scoring 112.3 points per game in their last 3 games. Also, at home this season the Knicks have not been held below 107 points. The Rockets are allowing 104.2 points per game on the road this season. Houston has not shot the ball well their past few games but that is unlikely to continue against a Knicks team not known for defense. The Rockets are likely to be angry and lighting it up from downtown tonight after their home loss to Philly and the Knicks - riding the confidence of a 3-game winning streak - should stay hot on the offensive end. The result should be a shootout here as the Knicks improve that aforementioned "over trend" to 8-1 the last 9 times. 10* OVER the total in New York |
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11-01-17 | Bucks +3.5 v. Hornets | 121-126 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
Contrarian Dominator - Rickenbach Wednesday NBA 8* Milwaukee Bucks (+) @ Charlotte Hornets @ 7:05 ET - This is a contrarian play because many will look at this as a bad spot for the Bucks since they were in action versus Oklahoma City last night and now are traveling plus losing an hour due to going to the East Coast. However, the fact is that Milwaukee is playing their 3rd game in 4 nights (just like Charlotte is) and the Bucks (just like the Hornets) actually got some rest last night! What do I mean by that? Milwaukee's key players did not have to log a lot of minutes because the Bucks got blasted by the Thunder yesterday. Milwaukee was down by double digits early and was down by 20+ going to the 4th quarter. That type of game means the starters got plenty of rest and it also means it is going to be a fired up and angry Bucks team that takes on the Hornets tonight. Milwaukee has won each of its last 3 meetings with the Hornets and the Bucks also are a perfect 3-0 ATS in the last 3 meetings in Charlotte. The Hornets enter this game off of back to back wins and I am glad to challenge them to win their 3rd straight as they're also playing their 4th game in 6 nights. It may surprise some people to see who actually ends up tiring as this game goes on! As for the Bucks, they are off of a loss and they haven't lost back to back games yet this season! Also, Milwaukee is 2-0 SU and ATS against the Southeast Division this season while Charlotte is 0-2 SU and ATS against the Central Division. Grab the generous points here but I don't expect to need them. 8* MILWAUKEE |
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10-31-17 | Suns +4.5 v. Nets | Top | 122-114 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
Contrarian Dominator - Rickenbach Tuesday NBA 10* Top Play Phoenix Suns (+) @ Brooklyn Nets @ 7:35 ET - The Suns have been a different team since the coaching change. They have covered 3 in a row and they were a dog in all 3 games and won 2 of the 3 outright. Phoenix is definitely putting more emphasis on defense and they've held their last 3 opponents to 43% from the field. The Nets are the same old no-defense Brooklyn team we're used to seeing. The Nets have allowed 5 of their 7 opponents to make at least 48% of their shots from the field! Brooklyn is allowing 118.3 points per game! While the Suns full season points allowed look nearly as bad as the Nets, keep in mind Phoenix has allowed only 105.7 points per game in their last 3 games which of course are the games since the coaching change. The Suns also have plenty of motivation here because they've been swept by Brooklyn each of the last two seasons and each loss last season came by at least 18 points. It's time for payback and Phoenix is well rested since they've been off since Saturday. Conversely, the Nets are playing their 5th game in 8 nights and have yet to have back to back off days this entire season (that finally happens after this game). Though the marketplace appears to be tempted to back Brooklyn here as they expect a response off of a bad loss, the Nets are actually 17-47 SU (26-38 ATS) when off of a loss by double digits! I am expecting the upset here but, should the Suns fall short, I expect it to be by no more than a bucket. 10* PHOENIX |
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10-30-17 | Spurs +3.5 v. Celtics | 94-108 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
NBA TV Dominator - Rickenbach Monday NBA 8* San Antonio Spurs (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 7:35 ET - The Spurs have won 10 straight meetings with the Celtics. San Antonio also has won each of their last 6 visits to Boston. The Spurs finally got a taste of their own medicine yesterday as they took control, as usual, in the 4th quarter and were up by 9 with under 7 minutes to go. However, this time San Antonio was on the wrong end of the late 4th quarter push and the Pacers ended up getting the 3 point win in Indiana. Even though this is a back to back spot for the Spurs it helps that yesterday's game was an afternoon game and it also helps that San Antonio has two days off after this game. Hungry from back to back losses, you can bet (literally!) that the Spurs are going to go very hard in this one. That said, I like the additional line value here as this line has been pushed higher as the morning has gone on. Boston has won 4 straight (both SU and ATS) but they are 11-27 ATS when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more. The Spurs, despite losing outright as a sizable road favorite yesterday, are still 46-25 ATS in game played in the first half of a season. They were again off to a fast start this season (prior to this 2-game skid) and I expect they'll get right back on track tonight. 8* SAN ANTONIO |
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10-30-17 | Nuggets v. Knicks OVER 209 | Top | 110-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach NBA 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Knicks vs Denver Nuggets @ 7:35 ET - I like playing overs when two teams come in rolling with confidence and scoring a lot of points. When this happens it is only natural that a team lets up on defense because they are so focused on continuing their offensive onslaught and they have the added confidence factor of "who needs defense when nobody can stop us from scoring" as their mentality. That is the case here for the Knicks as they've won two straight games and averaged 110.5 points in their last two games. That included New York's big upset win at Cleveland last night. As for the Nuggets, they've also won back to back games and they've averaged 114.5 points per game. Keep in mind that Denver, other than the easy win over a hapless Sacramento team, has allowed an average of 107.2 points per game in their 5 contests against teams not named the Kings. As for the Knicks, they were allowing 108.7 points per game in their first 3 games this season and I am not sold on them necessarily having a defensive resurgence just because the Nets and Cavs both had poor shooting nights against them. Also, the Knicks have allowed an average of 129 points per game in their last two games versus Denver. Both match-ups went over the total last season and the Nuggets are a long-term 14-6 to the over in their games against Atlantic Division opponents. Also, the over is 29-16 in Denver's games when they are off of a game where they scored 115 points or more. Couple that with the Knicks being in a back to back and off of a huge upset win on the road and I expect a shootout tonight with an overall lack of effort on the defensive end. 10* OVER the total in New York |
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10-29-17 | Knicks v. Cavs OVER 208.5 | 114-95 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach Sunday NBA 8* OVER the total in Cleveland Cavaliers vs New York Knicks @ 7:05 ET - The Knicks are off of a win versus the Nets where they allowed just 86 points. However, this has certainly been the exception rather than the norm for New York as they were allowing 109 points per game in their first 3 games this season. Also, the Knicks allowed 118 points per game versus the Cavaliers in last season's 4 meetings. The Cavs come into this one fired up off of a loss as they were defeated 123-101 at New Orleans yesterday. Cleveland is 22-10 to the over when they are off of a game where they allowed 115 points or more. Also, the Cavaliers are 2-0 to the over this season when they are off of an upset loss as a favorite and they're also 2-0 to the over this season when they are facing a team with a losing record. The over is 10-6 when New York is off of a game where they allowed 90 points or less. As you can see, we have combined factors favoring the over to the tune of 36-16 in this one! 8* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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10-28-17 | Celtics -120 v. Heat | 96-90 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
Defensive Dominator - Rickenbach Saturday NBA 8* Boston Celtics (-) @ Miami Heat @ 8:05 ET - I had the Heat against the Spurs in their most recent game and I got burned. Until Hassan Whiteside comes back, Miami's rebounding and defense is leaving a lot to be desired. While the Celtics have a positive rebound differential of 3 per game, the Heat are at a rebounding deficit of 5 per game. Also, Miami is allowing opponents to shoot 48.5% from the field and 43.2% from three point land. By comparison, Boston is allowing only 44.1% from the field and just 30.4% from beyond the arc. The Celtics are 32-19 SU against poor defensive teams (allowing 106 points or more per game). The Heat are 11-18 SU against strong defensive teams (allowing 98 points or less per game). The Celtics also have won 7 straight games against Miami. More of the same here. 8* BOSTON |
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10-27-17 | Nets +2.5 v. Knicks | Top | 86-107 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach Friday NBA 10* Top Play Brooklyn Nets (+) @ New York Knicks @ 7:35 ET - Brooklyn is averaging 121.2 points per game this season while the Knicks are averaging 93.3 points per game on the young season. Of course the Nets defense is a different story but that doesn't change the fact that the Knicks are winless both SU and ATS while Brooklyn is 4-1 ATS and 3-2 SU on the season. The Nets have lost both their road games this season but, of course, this isn't much of a "road game" here considering the game is in New York! Also, it is the first divisional game of the season for Brooklyn so there is no way they'll be flat here even though they're off of a win versus the Cavs on Wednesday. The Nets have covered 4 games in a row while the Knicks are still seeking their first cover. Also, Brooklyn has won each of its last two meetings with New York and the Knicks just are not getting good backcourt play. That is why, even though the Nets are without guard D'Angelo Russell tonight, the Knicks don't have the backcourt firepower to take advantage. This total is hovering around the 220 mark and New York is 0-7 ATS in home games with a posted total of 220 or more in recent seasons. The Nets are 4-0 ATS this season in games with a posted O/U equal to 220 or greater! 10* BROOKLYN |
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10-26-17 | Mavs v. Grizzlies -8 | Top | 91-96 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
Earliest Cash Top Play - Rickenbach Thursday NBA 10* Memphis Grizzlies (-) vs Dallas Mavericks @ 8:05 ET - This line yesterday was a -4 and that game was at Dallas and now the rematch is in Memphis in this rare back to back same team, different city match-up. The fact that the Grizzlies are now available at -8 (at the time of this posting) is a bargain because that is saying that home court is only worth 2 points...Memphis being a -6 on a neutral floor...and that is not right. Home court is worth more than 2 points and the Grizzlies are hungry for revenge here. Last night's loss was their first of the season and the Dallas win was the Mavericks first of the season. There is also another little tidbit that, though not huge, certainly also carries some value here. The Grizzlies do not want to play Chandler Parsons on back to back nights as he hasn't been medically cleared for that so he DID not play last night and WILL play tonight. As for the Mavericks, Devin Harris played last night (first game since shooting death of brother) but was not expected to travel with the team for this game. This personnel variance for each team in the Thursday rematch certainly leads to more home fave line value! The Mavericks are allowing opponents to make 48.7% from the field and 36.1% from three point land while the Grizzlies are holding opponents to 41.7% from the field and 30.7% from beyond the arc! Memphis is 22-13 ATS when playing back to backs while the Mavericks are 13-20 SU in back to backs. Remember that all 3 of the Grizzlies wins this season have come by 8 points or more and that includes winning at Houston and also knocking off the defending champ Warriors here in Tennessee! 10* MEMPHIS |
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10-25-17 | Grizzlies v. Mavs +4 | Top | 94-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
Top Play Dominator - Rickenbach Wednesday NBA 10* Dallas Mavericks (+) vs Memphis Grizzlies @ 8:35 ET - Memphis is 3-0 SU and ATS this season. Dallas is 0-4 SU and ATS this season. Mavericks have no chance, right? Actually the inverse is true. The Mavs are extremely hungry for their first win of the season and they know it need to come against the Grizzlies because otherwise Dallas will be staring an 0-6 in the face. That's because tonight's game is followed by another match-up with the Grizz in Memphis tomorrow! While the Grizzlies rallied from a double digit 4th quarter deficit against the Rockets in Houston to get an improbable road win, the Mavs are off of an embarrassing home loss to Golden State. Dallas is 31-17 ATS when off of a loss by a double digit margin. The Grizzlies are 4-16 ATS when they enter a game on a streak of 3 or more consecutive unders. Also, Memphis is 14-27 (both SU and ATS) when off of a divisional game. Even though the Mavericks are also a divisional opponent the Grizzlies are justifiably more concerned with the Rockets than the Mavs and I see tonight's game as a flat spot for Memphis. Keep in mind, this is just the 2nd road game of the season for the Grizzlies and they were down by 10 points late in the game against the Rockets before their huge game-ending run. 10* DALLAS |
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10-25-17 | Spurs v. Heat +4 | 117-100 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
Rickenbach Wednesday NBA 8* Miami Heat (+) vs San Antonio Spurs @ 8:05 ET - The Spurs continue to do the unthinkable and grind out wins (and tight covers) despite not having Kawhi Leonard or Tony Parker available. Now they also saw role player Joffrey Lauvergne get hurt and he provides a big body that gets key rebounds and gives LaMarcus Aldridge a rest. While Lauvergne is not a key player, you may be surprised at how he impact the playing rotation of San Antonio for tonight's game in terms of big men. Certainly this helps Miami as the Heat are still without the injured Hassan Whiteside. I really like the hungry home dog here hosting a Spurs team that has seemed to have everything break their way late in games this season. That changes tonight as the Heat look to win their 3rd straight. Good value spot here as the Heat have not covered a game yet while San Antonio has yet to suffer an ATS loss. The Spurs are 36-43 ATS when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more. The Heat are 13-7 (65%) ATS against teams from the Southwest Division and there certainly is "history" between the Heat and Spurs! 8* MIAMI |
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10-25-17 | Nuggets v. Hornets OVER 210 | 93-110 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
Rickenbach Wednesday NBA 8* OVER the total in Charlotte Hornets vs Denver Nuggets @ 7:05 ET - The Nuggets have had 3 straight unders to start the season but they've allowed 106 points or more in 2 of their 3 games and are coming off of a game where they scored 104 points. The Hornets have also begun their season with 3 straight unders but a ridiculous 4th quarter (for the offensive production of both Charlotte and the Bucks) in Milwaukee Monday is the only reason they didn't record their first over of the season. The fact is that teams are averaging 92 field goal attempts per game against the Hornets so the pace is there. Now it's time for the points to match the pace and it will in this game. The over is 44-29 in Hornets games against teams with a losing record. Also, the over is 38-21 in Nuggets non-conference games. Match-ups that are inter-conference tend to play out with less defensive intensity than intra-conference match-ups and I expect plenty of "run and gun" in this one. 8* OVER the total in Charlotte |
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10-24-17 | Pacers +11 v. Wolves | Top | 130-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
Top Play Dominator - Rickenbach Tuesday NBA 10* Indiana Pacers (+) @ Minnesota Timberwolves @ 8:05 ET - The Timberwolves are over-priced here. I am well aware of the fact that the Pacers are still without Myles Turner but they've been without him since he got hurt in their season opener and Indiana is off of a tight 4-point loss in their most recent game. The Pacers are getting big scoring from Victor Oladipo. They can hang tight with a Timberwolves team that they certainly are catching at the right time. Minnesota is off of a huge win at Oklahoma City on Sunday. That was a big upset win for Minny and they are 10-21 SU when off of an outright upset win as an underdog. Also, the Wolves are 9-18 ATS short-term (and 46-73 ATS long-term) when off of a game where they scored 115 points or more. Also, Minnesota is known for playing down to the level of competition as they are 25-48 ATS in games against teams with a losing record. The Pacers are at the other end of the spectrum against teams with a winning record as they are on a 50-34 (60%) ATS run! Indiana also is 17-7 ATS when playing with 2 days of rest between games. The Pacers are 3-1 in their last 4 meetings with Minnesota and the road team is a perfect 4-0 ATS in those games! 10* INDIANA PACERS |
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10-24-17 | Knicks +9 v. Celtics | 89-110 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
Rickenbach Tuesday NBA 8* New York Knicks (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 7:35 ET - The Knicks were up by 21 points versus Detroit Saturday in the first half but blew the big lead and ended up losing by 4. They know they need to focus more on defense and rebounding and I like their chances to stay inside an inflated number here. The Celtics, without Gordon Hayward now for the season, are relying on a deep rotation of players and that may help them when they're facing a tired opponent. But, in this case, they're facing a New York team that has been off since Saturday and doesn't play again until Friday. The Knicks will go "all out" here and are hungry off of a loss. Also, the road team has won each of the last 3 games (both SU and ATS) between these two divisional rivals. That said, it is also hard to expect the Celtics to win this game by double digits when they're making only 41.8% of their field goal attempts early this season. Boston is on a 13-20 ATS run in divisional games and I it certainly appears they are again over-priced here. The Celtics also have a "revenge game" at Milwaukee on deck for Thursday. The Bucks beat the C's and ruined their home opener Wednesday. 8* NEW YORK KNICKS |
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10-24-17 | Nets v. Magic OVER 229 | 121-125 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show | |
Rickenbach Tuesday NBA 8* OVER the total in Orlando Magic vs Brooklyn Nets @ 7:05 ET - This total looks huge of course but it is truly not big enough. It opened up at 229 and Orlando is averaging 117 points per game this season and Brooklyn is averaging 124.3 points per game on the young season. I like the fact that both teams saw their first two games go over the total but are now coming into this game off of an under. The fact is that each team saw their opponent have a rare "off" shooting night in their most recent game. The pace was still for an over but the shooting percentage of the opponent simply didn't get the job done. This leads to value in a spot like this and the over is 8-4 in Orlando's games with a posted total of 220 or more. Also, the over is 16-5 in Magic games when they are playing with 2 days of rest between games and Orlando is off of that huge upset win at Cleveland on Saturday. The over is 11-6 in Brooklyn's road games with a posted total of 220 or more. Also, the Nets are 26-14 to the over when facing a team that allows 106 points or more per game. 8* OVER the total in Orlando |
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10-23-17 | Raptors +3 v. Spurs | Top | 97-101 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
Rickenbach Monday NBA 10* Top Play Toronto Raptors (+) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 8:35 ET - The Spurs are the popular choice here and I love to fade the masses. Yes, San Antonio is off to a 2-0 start but they pulled away very late to beat a Minnesota team that is still learning how to close out games and they then faced a Bulls team that is certainly having some issues and in-fighting right now. Now the Spurs take on a Raptors team that has had 48 or more wins each of the last 4 seasons and San Antonio is still without Tony Parker and, most importantly, Kawhi Leonard. Having won their first two games by a combined 51 points, abeit against weak competition (Bulls and Sixers), Toronto does roll into SA with plenty of confidence for this one. Keep in mind the Raptors are shooting better from the field (including from 3 point land) in comparison with San Antonio early this season. The Spurs are below .500 ATS (49-52 record) when facing a team with a winning record and the Raptors are fantastic 43-18 SU when off of a game they won by a double digit margin. Very confident and ready to make a statement in their first truly challenging game this season, the road team rolls in this one! 10* TORONTO |
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10-23-17 | Grizzlies v. Rockets -7.5 | 98-90 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
Rickenbach Monday NBA 8* Houston Rockets (-) vs Memphis Grizzlies @ 8:05 ET - Yes the Rockets are without Chris Paul but they were -13 with him on the floor in their upset win over the Warriors on opening night. Houston has also gone 2-0 without him as he has missed the past two games. Don't get me wrong, Paul is a fantastic player but the point is that others are filling in for very well. Look for the Rockets on Monday to take advantage of a Memphis team playing their first road game of the season. Also, the Grizzlies are coming off of a huge upset win over the Warriors on Saturday. Memphis has lost their last two games against the Rockets by an average margin of 19.5 points per game. The Grizzlies are on a 35-48 ATS run against teams with a winning record and I like the fact Houston is catching them off of an upset win over the defending champs. Keep in mind, the Rockets only non-cover this season was after they upset the Warriors at Golden State. 8* HOUSTON |
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10-23-17 | Hornets v. Bucks OVER 203.5 | 94-103 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
Rickenbach Monday NBA 8* OVER the total in Milwaukee Bucks vs Charlotte Hornets @ 8:05 ET - The Bucks are 3-0 to the over this season while the Hornets are 2-0 to the under this season so something has to give here. The fact is that Milwaukee, at home, is going to dictate the tempo and they have the NBA's leading scorer leading the way. With Charlotte banged up, I just don't see anyone slowing down Giannis Antetokounmpo (38.3 ppg) and the Bucks! Milwaukee is happy to push the tempo right now and Antetokounmpo continues to fire away and attack on offense which is also opening up great open looks for his teammates as he commands so much attention. In games played in the first half of a season, the Bucks are on a 44-25 run to the over. The Hornets are riding high after their big win over the Hawks and that 18-point win is noteworthy here because Charlotte is 30-15 to the over when they are off of a win by a double digit margin. Bucks games are averaging 214.7 points per game this season and I expect more of the same here! 8* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
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10-22-17 | Pelicans -3.5 v. Lakers | 119-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
Western Conf Dominator - Rickenbach Sunday NBA 8* New Orleans Pelicans (-) @ Los Angeles Lakers @ 9:35 ET - Another nice set up here for many reasons. First off the Pelicans are off of a loss but they faced the NBA Champion Warriors and they actually led Golden State by 15 points in the first half of that game. While New Orleans is coming into this one hungry off of a loss the Lakers are feeling satisfied off of a win Friday. That win, however, was at Phoenix, and the Suns don't play defense. Keep in mind, when Lonzo Ball and these Lakers faced the defensive-minded Clippers in their opener on Wednesday, the Lakers were dominated. The Clippers had too much size inside and Ball was out-classed by Patrick Beverley. This will prove to be another tough match-up for Ball and the Lakers because the Pelicans have another former UCLA star (Jrue Holiday) whom will match-up with Lonzo. Look for the highly motivated Holiday to win this battle. Also, in the paint, New Orleans has a huge edge with the big bodies of DeMarcus Cousins and Anthony Davis. The early drop on this line also gives added value with the small road fave here. The Lakers are 2-6 ATS when off of a game where they allowed 130 points or more. Both these teams enter this game 1-1 but the Pelicans have played the much tougher schedule. Grab the line value here as the Pelicans get revenge for April's loss in the most recent meeting in Los Angeles. 8* NEW ORLEANS |
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10-22-17 | Wolves v. Thunder OVER 209 | 115-113 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Sunday 8* OVER the total in Oklahoma City Thunder vs Minnesota Timberwolves @ 7:05 ET - After scoring just 34 points in the first HALF at Utah last night, you're sure to see a HUGE response from the Thunder in this one! They've scored a total of 158 points - for an average of 26.3 points per quarter in their other 6 quarters of action early this season. The Timberwolves are off of a win versus that same Jazz team Friday and Minnesota did reach triple digits in the game. However, they've shot just 44% so far this season from the field and I expect a breakout game from the Wolves offense in this one as Oklahoma City's focus is on the offensive end after scoring just 87 point in last night's loss. It leads to what should be a shootout here and so I'll gladly take advantage of the downward line move on the O/U in this one. The Timberwolves first road game this season went over the total and they are on a 48-31 run to the over in road games. 8* OVER the total in Oklahoma City |
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10-21-17 | Spurs v. Bulls +9.5 | 87-77 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
Market Analytics - Rickenbach Saturday NBA 8* Chicago Bulls (+) vs San Antonio Spurs @ 8:05 ET - The Spurs got the win and cover versus the Timberwolves on Wednesday in San Antonio. However, that game was very tight until the final minutes and the final score is quite deceiving. This has resulted in some additional line value here because this is still an SA team that is without Kawhi Leonard and Tony Parker right now. The Bulls are hungry off of their 17 point road loss at Toronto Thursday and definitely want to come up with a big effort in their home opener. What could be better than winning a home opener against a highly respected team like the Spurs? I am not saying that will happen but, you get my point! The Bulls want this one and SA is still a banged up team. By the way, the Spurs are only 3-5 SU when off of an upset win as an underdog and now, after a mild upset of Minnesota, San Antonio is laying nearly double digits on the road. Chicago is 64-51 ATS when off of a game where they allowed 115 points or more. 8* CHICAGO |
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10-20-17 | Jazz v. Wolves -4 | Top | 97-100 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
Top Play Annihilation Friday - Rickenbach NBA 10* Top Play Minnesota Timberwolves (-) vs Utah Jazz @ 8:05 ET - The Timberwolves actually led the Spurs with 5 minutes to go in the 4th quarter. They also were down just 1 point with 4 minutes to go when they missed a 3-pointer that would have given them a 2 point lead. Anyway calling San Antonio an "easy win" Wednesday didn't watch the game very closely as it certainly could have gone either way in the final minutes. In any event, this Minnesota team is well coached and also has added a ton of talent. They've got much more of a veteran presence than the young teams they've had in recent seasons. The result is likely to be a solid season and while they're moving up the Jazz are on their way down. Yes Utah won 51 games last season but they also had Gordon Hayward. You're already seeing what is happening to Boston after they acquired Hayward but he got hurt just 6 minutes into the season opener. The Celtics have seen that no Hayward has left quite a hole. Certainly Utah will be a different team without him. The Jazz did win their home opener but that was against a Denver team projected to be dead last in the division this season. Now Utah is on the road and they've gone 18-50 SU and have covered just 28 of 68 ATS when they are an underdog. That said, I am very comfortable laying the small number with the Timberwolves in their home opener. Minny is on a 45-31 ATS run in games against teams with a winning record and the Wolves are looking for payback here as they've lost 3 of 4 to the Jazz each of the last two seasons. Utah has a home game with OKC tomorrow and they'll be looking ahead to that match-up as they get down by double digits in this one in my opinion. 10* MINNESOTA |
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10-19-17 | Knicks v. Thunder OVER 213.5 | 84-105 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
TNT Smash Pass Thursday - Rickenbach NBA 8* OVER the total in Oklahoma City Thunder vs New York Knicks @ 8:05 ET - Kristaps Porzingis is probable for the Knicks and he is a key scorer for them. Joakim Noah, mostly known for defense and rebounding, is suspended for 12 games to start the season. Carmelo Anthony is now a member of the Thunder and would love nothing more than to "pour it on" against his former team here. Of course Oklahoma City's Russell Westbrook would love nothing more than to feed him, pile up assists, and help in the demolition of Melo's former team. With the line around a dozen points, that's the reason I am on the over here rather than the side. I do expect OKC to win big but once you start getting into double digits with a line in the NBA it can get a little "dicey" as to how the game plays out in the final few minutes. One thing I do know though is that I don't expect the Thunder to ever take their foot off of the gas in this one and that means it will be played at a frenetic pace. OKC is out to make a statement here in their first game of the season and these two teams both were in the top 5 in the NBA for field goal attempts per game last season. The Knicks averaged 88.5 and the Thunder averaged 87.4 shots per game. In other words there will be plenty of "run and gun" in this game. Both games last year totaled at least 215 points and the last 3 match-ups between these teams have averaged 228.7 points per game. Great value here considering the factors above and with this line currently 213.5 at the time of posting this play. 8* OVER the total in Oklahoma City |
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10-18-17 | 76ers +7 v. Wizards | 115-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach Wednesday NBA 8* Philadelphia 76'ers (+) @ Washington Wizards @ 7:05 ET - The 76'ers were a sizable dog in all 3 match-ups with the Wizards last year. Not only did the Sixers cover 2 of the 3 games, they won the 2 games outright as a big dog each time. Also, in the lone loss, Philly was tied at Washington at half-time. The point is that the 76'ers did just fine "hanging with" the Wizards last season and now that they've substantially "closed the gap" this season and are likely to be a .500 team, this line seems very generous. The upstart Sixers are loaded with young talent and they are ready to go. Look for Philadelphia to immediately make a statement here in Game 1 with the ESPN cameras rolling. Joel Embiid is probable and he was only available for 31 games last season. Ben Simmons will also be on the floor after missing all of last season and he is considered a strong candidate for Rookie of the Year in the NBA this season. Additionally, Markelle Fultz is probable and he was a top draft choice in this year's draft. Yes indeed the Sixers are stacked and they are healthy and, with Gordon Hayward's injury last night being a devastating low for Boston, don't be surprised if the Sixers actually end up challenging the Raptors and Celtics for the top spot in the Atlantic this season. Philly has that much talent so the key will be remaining healthy. Also, coach Brett Brown is a strength as he came up as an assistant with Spurs coach Gregg Popovich. Now Brown finally has the pieces intact. This team is going to surprise some people and, if they do fall short against the Wizards, look for it to be by only a bucket or two as the Sixers have a great shot at the upset here. I am grabbing the generous points. 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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10-17-17 | Celtics +3.5 v. Cavs | 99-102 | Win | 100 | 15 h 28 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach Tuesday NBA 8* Boston Celtics (+) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:05 ET - Kyrie Irving, former Cav, now in a Celtics uniform. Isaiah Thomas, former Celtic, now in a Cavs uniform. The difference is that Thomas won't be playing tonight. He's out for possibly 2 months dealing with an ankle injury. Additionally, Cleveland's LeBron James is dealing with an ankle injury. I do expect James to play tonight but I don't expect him to be 100%. I know the Cavaliers will have Derrick Rose at point guard tonight but he's truly not quite the same player he was before the injury issues. Remember there was a span of 3 seasons there where played a total of only 49 games! I also look for the Gordon Hayward acquisition to pay off big dividends for Boston as he averaged 22 points a game for Utah last season. The road team has dominated at the betting window in match-ups between these teams in recent season. In last year's playoff series, won 4-1 by Cleveland (and giving Boston a revenge factor here), the road team covered all 5 games. Dating back to last April it is a perfect 6-0 ATS run for the road team in meetings between these teams. Look for 7 in a row tonight! 8* BOSTON |
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06-12-17 | Cavs +9 v. Warriors | Top | 120-129 | Push | 0 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach Monday NBA 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 9 ET - After getting embarrassed by 21 points in Game 4 at Cleveland on Friday the Warriors have to bounce back here, right? Not necessarily! In fact, Golden State is laying a sizable number here even though they are 1-5 ATS this season when off of a loss by 10 points or more. While it is likely that the Warriors close out the series tonight, it would not be a complete shock if the Cavs got the upset win. They've done it before here at Golden State in spots very similar to this one. However, the real key is the line value because lets not forget that Cleveland, at halftime, was only down by 8 to the Warriors in Game One and just 3 to the Warriors in Game Two here. Then the Cavs should have won Game Three were it not for blowing a sizable lead very late. Now, with the added confidence of having won Game Four, look for the Cavs to be able to stay close with Golden State all the way in this one. As you can see, they've "been right there" with the Warriors for much more of this series than what the final scores would lead you to believe but the odds makers simply have to keep this number big on Golden State because the public is likely to be all over them in "bounce back mode" here. In addition to that 1-5 ATS mark for the Warriors off of a double digits loss, also note that the Cavs are 22-10 SU (and have had just 12 ATS losses in those 32 games) when off of a win by a margin of 10 points or more. Momentum is huge when it comes to ATS covers and the Cavaliers have it and will seize the moment here. 10* CLEVELAND plus the big points Monday night. |
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06-09-17 | Warriors v. Cavs +200 | Top | 116-137 | Win | 200 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA Friday 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (+200) vs Golden State Warriors @ 9 ET - I am actually recommending playing this one on the money line. You get 2 to 1 odds by playing Cleveland on the money line and I just don't see the Cavaliers getting swept on their home floor. LeBron James and Company are certainly going to do everything in their power to avoid being a part of history as the Warriors look to become the first team ever to go all the way through the post-season without a loss. While the Game 3 loss was certainly demoralizing for the Cavs, there are no tomorrows should they lose Game 4. In other words, look for the Cavaliers to use Game 3 as added motivation and added confidence. How can they get confidence from that final outcome? It is because they had the very late lead in that game and lets also not forget that Cleveland rallied from a 3-1 series deficit last season to win the championship. They know they face long odds but certainly the Cavs are just taking it one game at a time and the one thing they don't want to have happen is for the Warriors to make history on the Cavaliers home floor. The Warriors shot a ridiculous 48.5% from three point land in Game 3 on the road. That certainly was the difference in the game and it is highly unlikely to be repeated in Game 4 as I just don't see another huge performance from beyond the arc coming again in Game 4. The Wednesday performance was other-worldly! Look for Golden State to drop to 4-8 ATS on Fridays this season while the Cavaliers improve to 13-4 ATS in Friday games. Also, the Cavs do have a long-term mark of 7-2 SU (and 6-3 ATS) in home games with a posted total of 220 points or more and that is even after the crazy finish leading to a loss in Game 3. I am grabbing the Cavaliers on the money line in this one and expecting to triple our money tonight thanks to the 2 to 1 odds! 10* CLEVELAND money line +200 |
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06-07-17 | Warriors v. Cavs UNDER 227 | Top | 118-113 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach Wednesday NBA 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Cleveland Cavaliers vs Golden State Warriors - In the typical zig zag of the markets throughout a playoff series now this total has shot back up. That is offering us significant line value here as Golden State is 18-9 to the under in road games with a posted total of 220 or more this season. Generally speaking, the Warriors have more offensive hiccups on the road than at home. In other words, if there is going to be game where the shots aren't falling so well for Stephen Curry and Company, look for it to be this game. The Cavaliers will come out fired up at home and in an 0-2 hole. They must go into shut-down mode on defense as much as possible and look to get the Warriors out of their rhythm - at least as much as that is possible. I look for LeBron James and Company to do just that. Even with the over in Game 2, the under is 12-5 this season (and 36-17 the last 3 seasons combined) in Cavaliers games as an underdog. Also, the Cavs haven't recorded back to back overs in a series since Games 1 and 2 of the Toronto series in very early May. After allowing 132 points on the road in Game 2 to the Warriors, look for the Cavaliers to bring a defensive mindset this one and play very aggressively to limit easy scores for Golden State. The result should be a total falling well short of this number in Game 3 Wednesday night. 10* UNDER the total in Cleveland |
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06-04-17 | Cavs +9 v. Warriors | Top | 113-132 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
ABC Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Sunday 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 8 ET - The Cavaliers have no chance in this series. At least that is prevailing public opinion after the way Game 1 played out. Of course we all know how it usually plays out after the public gets one-sided about things after one game. The point is that the value is clearly with the road dog in this one. The opening line on this game was a 7 and it is now up to a 9. The Warriors turned the ball over just 4 times in Game 1 while the Cavaliers turned it over 20 times. Do you really think that the Cavs are again going to lose the turnover battle 20-4? Do you really think that a LeBron James Cleveland team that also has Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love is just going to lay down in Game 2 after getting embarrassed in Game 1? The Cavaliers were on an 8-0 ATS run away from home before the ugly loss Thursday at Golden State. That was their first non-cover away from Cleveland since in nearly TWO MONTHS - April 9th! Look for the Warriors to drop to 3-10 ATS on the season in Sunday games! They've been feeling a little too good about themselves with their perfect record in this post-season and don't you think beautiful Saturdays in California have a little something to do with that ugly Sunday ATS record for the Warriors? Trust me the Cavaliers certainly have been all business after what happened in Game 1. They'll make some adjustments. Grab the big points. 10* CLEVELAND |
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06-01-17 | Cavs +7 v. Warriors | Top | 91-113 | Loss | -105 | 52 h 21 m | Show |
THE Game of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (+) @ Golden State Warriors @ 9 ET - Both teams have had a long layoff but the Warriors layoff has been particularly long heading into this one. Also, the Cavaliers have responded extremely well after a long layoff in this post-season as they blew out the Raptors and Celtics in Game 1 of each of those series. Certainly this is to take nothing away from Golden State. They definitely have proven they are more than capable of blowing teams out but even though they have revenge from last year's Finals loss to the Cavs, Cleveland comes into Game 1 very hungry here as LeBron James and Company are tired of all the talk about being such a huge dog in this match-up. That is tremendous motivation for the defending champs and, even if they do fall short in Game 1 I would expect it to only be by a bucket or two. I know the Cavaliers got the benefit of facing the Celtics with Isaiah Thomas getting hurt in the series but the Warriors faced the Spurs without Kawhi Leonard after the midway point in Game 1 AND then San Antonio ALSO lost Tony Parker to injury. San Antonio just didn't have anybody left (let's not forget Tim Duncan of course was already retired and SA just not what they once were). The point is that the Cavs faced arguably a tougher test to get here than the Warriors. For all the talk of all the weapons that Golden State has (certainly formidable) let's not forget that LeBron James has a healthier cast around him this season and they've got Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love (healthy!) for star power plus plenty of tremendous role players. They're just not even being given a shot here and remember the Spurs were up HUGE here in GS in Game 1 before Leonard got hurt. LeBron and Company are well aware of the +7 that has been assigned to them here and they'd love nothing more than to make a statement here in Game 1. The Cavaliers are going to bring a ferocious attitude to the floor for this game and I expect Game 1 goes to the wire with an outright upset not surprising me in the least. 10* CLEVELAND |
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05-25-17 | Cavs v. Celtics +11 | Top | 135-102 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics (+) vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:30 ET - I know Kyrie Irving is going to play and his ankle is not "that" big of a deal. However, there is no denying that if the Cavaliers are fortunate enough to have a big lead late in this game they have to start thinking about the Warriors and making sure nobody gets hurt or, in the case of Irving, injures something further. With that said, this is a lot of points for Cavs on the road and I see this game being decided by single digits. Keep in mind, Boston was thoroughly embarrassed on their home floor in this series and, that said, even if they are unable to extend the series by getting an upset win at home tonight, they damn sure want to at least put on a respectable showing for their home fans. Without Isaiah Thomas, the Celtics have looked like a different team and Cleveland even admitted they are still having trouble adjusting to the way Boston is playing sans Thomas. Of course the Cavs don't have to even admit that as it has truly been apparent. The Celtics rallied for the big upset win on the road in Game 3 and for much of Game 4 (even into the 4th quarter) appeared to have a great shot at another upset Tuesday. The fact is that everyone (including bettors) are anxious for the NBA Finals between Cleveland and Golden State to start and many are looking for a close-out game here for the Cavs. That is reflected in this line going from an 8.5 to as high as an 11 and while the Cavaliers may indeed get the close-out win here, I just don't see it coming at a big margin. These series has looked much different since Brad Stevens (a good coach) has made some key adjustments to make things much more competitive after abhorrent performances early in this series in Boston. The Celtics are 11-5 ATS (and SU) this season when off of a loss by 10 points or more and the Game 4 final score does not properly reflect how close that game was. The result is tremendous line value here and, as a result, I am going with my highest rating in this one! 10* BOSTON |
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05-23-17 | Celtics +15.5 v. Cavs | Top | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
TNT Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics (+) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:30 ET - Boston made significant adjustments in Game 3 and guys stepped up with Isaiah Thomas out. The Celtics not only covered that game but also got the huge upset win. Now most everyone will be running to the Cavaliers here expecting LeBron James and company to respond in a huge way here. However, while Cleveland is certainly likely to respond and get a W here are they really going to win this one in complete blowout fashion? To me this line is far too high when you consider that Boston has their sights set on making a series out of this. Keep in mind, they're already guaranteed of getting a Game 5 on their game floor so they know they can still battle and make something out of this series. Also, once the mighty has fallen once it can cast a little bit of doubt upon a team. In other words, the Cavs don't have the same "unbeatable" aura flowing around them the way they did before getting upset in Game 3 Sunday. In terms of ATS stats, since the All Star break, the Cavs only once have had a single ATS standalone loss. In other words, when they are off of a defeat at the betting window, it almost always has started a streak of ATS losses and I expect that to be the case here as well. The Cavs were on a 6-0-2 ATS run before Sunday's loss but prior to this ATS hot streak, the Cavaliers were on a long-term 9-18-1 ATS run. Could this be the start of their next big decline at the betting window. I certainly am glad to test that theory with the big points being offered here. The Celtics are on a long-term 16-6 ATS run as a road dog of 12.5 or more points. Cleveland is on a 15-25 ATS run when playing with home loss revenge. 10* BOSTON plus the big points Tuesday evening |
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05-22-17 | Warriors v. Spurs UNDER 217 | Top | 129-115 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Monday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in San Antonio Spurs vs Golden State Warriors @ 9 ET - The Spurs were able to run with the Warriors for awhile in Game 3 Saturday and even were within 4 points in the 3rd quarter. However, San Antonio is just not healthy and the Spurs quickly found out that, no matter who is on the floor, it is simply a mistake to try and "run and gun" with the Warriors. It's just not going to work! Golden State is the much healthier team and has far too many weapons. With that said, the Spurs still are not going to go down without a fight, at least not on their home floor. That is why I see Game 4 staying under the total. I know all 3 of the games so far have gone over the total in this series (and overs have dominated overall in recent NBA playoff action) but the fact is that the Spurs must slow things down some tonight. Couple that with the fact that the numbers on totals are continuing to become more and more inflated and you certainly have some line value here. The under is 29-17 in Golden State's road games this season and the under is 31-20 when the Warriors are off of a game in which they scored 115 points or more. The Spurs, the last 3 seasons combined, have gone 43-29 to the under in their games against teams that average 106 points or more per game. That's because SA knows how to slow things down and turn up the heat on defense and that is truly their only hope here in a "win or go fishing" Game 4 that could ultimately define their finish to the season. The Spurs go hard here but it will be defense that they'll have to lean on and that's why my only play tonight is on the total. 10* UNDER the total in San Antonio |
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05-21-17 | Celtics v. Cavs OVER 213.5 | Top | 111-108 | Win | 100 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach Sunday NBA 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Cavaliers vs Boston Celtics @ 8:30 ET - This total took a big drop because of Isaiah Thomas now being out. I'll step in and take advantage as it is highly unlikely that the Celtics have another horrific shooting effort as they shot just 37.2% from the field in Game 2. Of course the Cavaliers have been putting up insane numbers and while they are highly unlikely to score 130 again (Cavs won Game 2 by a 130-86 final) I truly don't expect them to slow down much considering they're fired up to be playing on their home floor for the first time in 2 and 1/2 weeks! By the way, the over is a perfect 5-0 this season when Cleveland is off of a game where they scored 130 points or more. As for Boston, the over is a long-term 5-2 when they are off of a game where they allowed 130 points or more. As a road dog of 12.5 points or more, the Celtics have gone 15-7 to the over long-term. The Cavaliers are an incredible 49-26 to the over this season when they are a favorite. Take advantage of the lower total here as the O/U move has helped add great value here. Others will fill in as Thomas now sits out. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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05-20-17 | Warriors v. Spurs +7 | 120-108 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 24 m | Show | |
Contrarian Special - Rickenbach Saturday NBA 8* San Antonio Spurs (+) vs Golden State Warriors @ 9 ET - The Spurs, under coach Gregg Popovich, have long been known as a "character team" in the NBA. The way San Antonio lost on Tuesday (got down huge early and never recovered) totally threw "character" out the window. The Spurs, without Kawhi Leonard, seemed to have self-doubt from the opening tip and they gave a horrific effort in that game. That, of course, is unacceptable to coach Pop and the Spurs and you can bank on a huge effort Saturday night in front of a raucous home crowd in San Antonio. The ugly loss Tuesday was bad enough but the fact that SA has had to wait so long for their next game to try and get rid of the bad taste in their mouth from Game 2 means you're going to see an extremely intense and focused effort from the Spurs in Game 3 Saturday night. There is no doubt the Warriors are loaded with talent and certainly are the healthier team but, after the 36 point shellacking the Spurs were handed Tuesday night, look for this game to be decided by only a bucket or two as San Antonio is far too proud to go away without a fight under coach Popovich. The Spurs had everything, and I mean EVERYTHING, called into question after their effort Tuesday. That is the kind of embarrassing loss that will bring out the best in a team in the next game especially given the circumstances here. In our favor is the extra time off for the Spurs to regroup, the fact they are down 2-0 in the series, and the fact they are now back home. Look for SA to improve to 9-3 ATS this season as an underdog while the Warriors drop to 2-5 ATS when playing with 3 or more days of rest this season. 8* SAN ANTONIO |
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05-19-17 | Cavs v. Celtics +6.5 | Top | 130-86 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Friday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics (+) vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:30 ET - The Celtics didn't come this far and battle so hard for home court edge only to get trampled in both games on their home floor to open up this series. In other words, after a "wake up call" in Game 1 on Wednesday, look for Boston to respond in a big way on Friday in Game 2. The Celtics were on a 9-2 ATS run before getting blown out by double digits Wednesday. Boston is 10-4 ATS (and SU!) when off of a loss by 10 points or more this season. While I do indeed expect that the Celtics will win this one outright, I am absolutely going to grab the generous points being offered. Boston is 77-52 ATS the last 3 seasons combined when playing with revenge. As for the mighty Cavaliers, they managed to win Game 1 despite making only 35.5% of their three pointers. That is significant because that type of shooting performance has been an ominous sign for the Cavs in recent months. When Cleveland is held under 38% from three point land in their prior game they have a 2-9 ATS record in their next game! The Celtics will turn up the heat on defense in this game and make the proper adjustments and I look for this game to go right down to the wire which means excellent line value with the generous points being offered here. 10* BOSTON |
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05-17-17 | Cavs v. Celtics +5 | Top | 117-104 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
TNT No Doubt ATS Blowout Rout - Rickenbach NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics (+) vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:30 ET - The Cavaliers have been off for a week and a half. I know the Cavs were off for a week before they met Toronto and yet they still blasted the Raptors by double digits in that game. However, the Celtics are not the Raptors AND this game is on the road! Look for Cleveland to struggle to put away the top-seeded Celtics here. I do expect Boston to win this game outright but I'll gladly grab the generous points being offered. The Celtics might be a little sore and/or tired after their 7-game battle with the Wizards. However, Boston unless comes into this game with momentum and should play crisp basketball tonight while the Cavaliers could be a little disjointed after the long lay-off. Cleveland is facing one of the higher-scoring teams in the league and, interestingly, the Cavs are 10-13 ATS (and SU!) in games this season against teams that are averaging 106 points or more per game. The Celtics are playing this game with home loss revenge from an embarrassing loss in Boston in early April. This season the Celtics are 23-13 SU and 21-13 ATS when playing with revenge! Ton of respect for the Cavs but they opened up as a 3-point favorite here with good reason and yet everyone has jumped all over them and pushed this line higher. Boston coach Brad Stevens is an excellent coach and the Celtics fought hard to earn the #1 seed and home court edge in the East. They certainly aren't going to easily relinquish it. Look for the Celtics to come out very strong here as the Cavaliers struggle to get back into proper game flow. 10* BOSTON |
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05-16-17 | Spurs v. Warriors UNDER 210 | Top | 100-136 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
Total Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Golden State Warriors vs San Antonio Spurs @ 9 ET - Already without Tony Parker, the Spurs are now also very likely to be without Kawhi Leonard for this one Tuesday. Though both these players are key contributors on defense, there is no denying that Parker is a key catalyst on offense and Leonard is San Antonio's #1 scorer. With that said, the Spurs know they must turn this Game 2 affair into a slow-down, grind-it-out style of game if they have any hopes of springing the huge upset. The Warriors simply have too many weapons for SA to risk getting into a shootout with Golden State. The Spurs also want to do the best they can to keep the crowd out of it. Of course when they lost Leonard to injury in Game 1 there was a little bit of "shell shock" and the Spurs had trouble recovering from that and they blew a huge lead. Now, going into Game 2, coach Popovich and company has had time to adjust and game plan properly and the Spurs know that this is the hand they are dealt with. In other words, it's an entirely different game planning for the Spurs for Tuesday night and I look for them, as usual, to execute it very well under coach Pop's tutelage. The result should be a low-scoring affair as the Warriors can certainly play some D too (allowed only 43% shooting from the field this season) and the Spurs, before Game 1's tight defeat, had held their opponent to 96 points or less in 4 of their last 7 games. That included their stifling defensive effort against the Rockets in Game 6 on the road where they held Houston to 75 points. Certainly the Warriors aren't the Rockets but you understand why the Spurs D can be expected to "rise up" for this one! The under is 9-4 in Warriors conference final games and the under is 42-27 in Spurs games when they are facing teams that average 106 points or more per game. 10* UNDER the total in Golden State |
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05-15-17 | Wizards v. Celtics OVER 209.5 | 105-115 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
Total Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Monday 8* OVER the total in Boston Celtics vs Washington Wizards @ 8 ET - After two days off, finally Game 7 is here and the early market action has been to the under. However, the Wizards generally know only one way to win and that is offense. Yes, they gutted out an insanely tight Game 6 victory that was low-scoring but that was the exception rather than the norm. Going on the road for this highly anticipated Game 7, Washington knows the best way to get the crowd out of the game is to get a solid early lead. The Wizards can do that by running and gunning early and that is a big part of the "style" that Washington plays on the road. That's why the Wizards are 31-16 to the over in road games this season. Also, Washington is 29-12 to the over when playing with two days of rest between games over the past three seasons combined. With fresh legs and relishing the underdog role (25-13 to the over as an underdog this season), look for the Wizards to come out firing on all cylinders in this one! By the way, 15 of the Wizards last 20 games against teams that average 106 points or more per game have gone over the total. The Celtics are 11-6 to the over this season when playing with 2 days of rest between games. After not playing aggressive enough offensively in Game 6, look for Boston to be very aggressive on their home floor here in Game 7. The last 6 times that the Celtics have been held to 42.9% or less from the field they've averaged 112.5 points per game in their next game. Also, the over is a perfect 6-0 the last 6 times that the Celtics were held to 43% or less in their prior game. Look for these trends to continue here and I'll take advantage of the early morning downward line movement on this total. 8* OVER the total in Boston |
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05-14-17 | Spurs v. Warriors -10 | Top | 111-113 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Sunday 10* Top Play Golden State Warriors vs San Antonio Spurs @ 3:30 ET - Even though the Warriors won the most recent meeting between these teams (by 12 at San Antonio in late March), Golden State still has revenge on their minds heading into this one. The only time this season that the Warriors hosted the Spurs this season, it was Golden State's home opener and they got embarrassed in a 29 point loss. Home loss revenge is a pretty strong motivator and there is another reason to expect the Warriors to show no mercy here. They want to set the tone for this series. Golden State wants to flex their muscles in Game 1 and not give the big dog Spurs any chance to get any momentum going early in this series. This line may look big at -10 but the odds makers opened this one up at double digits with good reason. The Warriors are 8-0 in the post-season and 7 of the 8 wins have come by a double digit margin! As for the Spurs, each of their 6 games with the Rockets was decided by double digits except for the lone OT game. It was that OT loss for Houston that took the wind out of their sails and left them dead in Game 6. No excuse really for that but the Rockets were no match for SA in Game 6 and that helped to create some line value because everyone watched the Spurs blowout the Rockets in that series-clinching road win. The Spurs are 2-4 ATS this season when off of an upset win as an underdog. San Antonio is also 5-9 ATS when off of 2 days or more of rest. The Warriors are on a powerful 14-7 ATS run in games against teams with a winning record and, after what happened at Oracle Arena on October 25th, the Spurs have their full attention! 10* GOLDEN STATE |
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05-12-17 | Celtics v. Wizards UNDER 216 | Top | 91-92 | Win | 100 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Friday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Washington Wizards vs Boston Celtics @ 8 ET - The over is 4-1 so far in this series so it may seem a little "uncomfortable" to back the under but this is an elimination game. Anything can happen in an elimination game (as we saw last night with the Spurs holding the high-powered Rockets to 75 points on their home floor). The point is, I expect the Wizards to not be able to play with the same "free-flowing" mentality here as they face the pressure of elimination. As for the Celtics, they've averaged only 95.5 points per game in the two games played at Washington in this series. Game 3 in Washington stayed under the total. Game 4 in DC only went over the total because both teams shot "lights out" from three point land. The teams actually averaged only 83 shots from the field in the two games played in Washington in this series. That is a slower pace than what we've seen in the games played at Boston in this series. The fact the Wizards are facing elimination also changes the complexion of this one. Washington knows they must again slow down Thomas like they did in Games 3 and 4 on their home floor. The other complementary players for Boston are less likely to have big games here like they did with the ridiculous hot shooting when they are were on their home floor. Keep in mind, the Celtics made only 39.7% of their shots in the two games here and the Wizards were held to just 38.5% Wednesday. Before the over in Game 4 of this series, the under was a perfect 4-0 in Celtics road games in this post-season. Look for that trend to resume here on Friday night. By the way, Boston is 13-7 to the under on Fridays this season. 10* UNDER the total in Washington |
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05-11-17 | Spurs v. Rockets UNDER 214 | 114-75 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
Total Contrarian - Rickenbach NBA Thursday 8* UNDER the total in Houston Rockets vs San Antonio Spurs @ 8 ET - This series is certainly grinding down towards "crunch time" and it should result in another tight game in Game 6. Keep in mind, the Spurs and Rockets have combined for just 46 points in their last 17 minutes of basketball. They only had 31 points combined in the 4th quarter of Game 5 and then just 15 points in the 5 minute OT session. This is the point in a series when fatigue sets in and the Rockets used only a 7 man rotation in Game 5 with 6 of the players combining to average 40 minutes. In fact 4 of the 5 starters did log at least 40 minutes in that game. Maybe the Rockets do rise up and win this game and perhaps even cover (the answer on that is with my 10* Top Side play for tonight) but the fact is I expect this to be a tighter, lower-scoring game. The series began it's shift into tough, "grind it out" basketball when it was a 2-2 series and a one point game heading to the 4th quarter of Game 5. Everyone is feeling the pressure, amping up the defensive intensity and Spurs coach Gregg Popovich is going to be very careful about the tempo of this game. He doesn't want the Rockets getting out in transition and his offensive game plan will be predicated on the fact that he doesn't want missed shots with long rebounds leading to easy, open looks for Houston in transition. Also, I don't the think weary Rockets are going to be necessarily capable of just "running and gunning" tonight. This should be "playoff basketball" at it's finest tonight and the result should be a solid under. I am calling this a contrarian play because there have been so many overs in this series (although Game 5 was damn lucky for over players - OT) and because there have been so many overs in recent playoff games across the NBA. The over is on a 5-0 run in NBA playoff action as there has not been an under since Saturday. That streak ends here as both teams dial up some defense in the first game of this series where a team is facing elimination. 8* UNDER the total in Houston |
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05-11-17 | Spurs +7.5 v. Rockets | Top | 114-75 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
Texas Insider - Rickenbach NBA Thursday 10* Top Play San Antonio Spurs (+) @ Houston Rockets @ 8 ET - Even though the Rockets are at home and should have won Game 5 outright (rather than just covering in OT), the fact is that the emotional and physical drain on Houston is big right now. That loss in Game 5 really strung the Rockets emotionally. From a physical standpoint Houston went with just a 7-man rotation Tuesday and 6 of those players combined to average 40 minutes in the grueling overtime affair. In fact 4 of the 5 starters did log 40 minutes or more. It's starting to take a toll on the Rockets and I look for this to once again be another tight match-up that could go either way late in the fourth quarter. That said, there is huge line value with the big points being offered in this one and the word here in San Antonio (I have resided in this area for many years) is that Kawhi Leonard's ankle is not an issue at all. The Spurs are 7-2 ATS as an underdog this season. The Rockets are on a 2-7 ATS run in home games. Fade the line move and grab the big points being offered in this one! 10* SAN ANTONIO |
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05-10-17 | Wizards v. Celtics UNDER 216 | Top | 101-123 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Boston Celtics vs Washington Wizards @ 8 ET - Having not played since Sunday, Boston has had two days off to think about the fact that allowing an average of 118.5 points per game to the Wizards just might have had something to do with the Celtics getting blown out in both games in Washington. In other words, look for some solid defense here from the home team as they need to get back on track in this series and they need to turn to their defense to do it. Give some credit to the Wizards defense too as, surprisingly, they have figured out a way to slow down Isaiah Thomas as they've held the Celtics point guard in check the last two games and this has slowed down Boston. The Celtics have averaged just 95.5 points per game in the last two games. Things definitely got "chippy" with this series in the two games down in DC and I expect that to continue here. Keep in mind Game 3 totaled only 205 points and Game 4 only went over the total because both teams shot a ridiculously high percentage of 3 pointers in that game as they combined to go 23 of 52. Look for a return to normal here and Boston is still 13-7 to the under in all playoff games in recent seasons and also 9-4 to the under this season when off of a loss by 10 points or more. Back at home, and off of getting "blitzed" in DC in both games, the Celtics turn up the heat on defense in this one and they will dictate the tempo which will be a little less "chaotic" than what has been the case so far in this series! 10* UNDER the total in Boston |
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