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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-09-19 | Villanova +2 v. Marquette | 65-66 | Win | 100 | 5 h 20 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #651 Saturday 8* Villanova Wildcats (+) @ Marquette Golden Eagles @ 2:30 ET - This line opened up right around a pick'em and has risen now to as high as a -2 on Marquette. This is not a surprise to be as the Golden Eagles are at home and are 14-1 SU in home games this season. Also, that lone loss just happened as Marquette lost versus St John's on Tuesday. Though they rallied back in the 1-point loss lets not forget they were down 15 points to the Red Storm in the 2nd half of their game. Now perhaps Marquette was looking ahead to this showdown with Villanova but the Wildcats also might have been looking ahead when they had to go to OT to beat Creighton on Wednesday. There is an old handicapping adage that says don't play teams off of an overtime win. However, I am here to say that there is no doubt that the Wildcats enter this game feeling much more confident heading into Marquette off an 11 point win in comparison with how the Golden Eagles feel seeing their home winning streak end. Also, that St John's team that Marquette just lost to in Milwaukee is the same Red Storm team that Villanova hosted 5 weeks ago and beat by 5. The key story line there was the Wildcats were down by 13 early in the game and also trailed by 5 with under 3 and 1/2 minutes to go. Villanova outscored St John's by 10 over the final 3 and 1/2 minutes. Not to take anything away from Golden Eagles coach Steve Wojciechowski but Wildcats coach Jay Wright is 15 years his senior. The point is Wildcats still the stronger team at closing out games and Villanova is not yet ready to relinquish their seemingly annual spot as the top team in the Big East. The Wildcats lost at Marquette two years ago but that was because they shot 17.6% from three point land while the Golden Eagles shot 47.4% from three point land. Villanova still only lost that game by two points and I don't expect a repeat of that type of shooting performance here. In fact, Marquette has not had "the touch" from three point land in home games this season that they've shown in past seasons. Against St John's, Seton Hall, Wisconsin, UTEP, Kansas State the Eagles had sub-par shooting efforts from beyond the arc and the Wildcats know they can't let Marquette beat them with wide open threes. Nova has won 12 of the last 13 meetings between these teams and the lone loss came by just 2 points on a night when the Wildcats were shooting so bad they couldn't hit the ocean standing 20 feet from the water! That won't happen again here. 8* VILLANOVA |
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02-09-19 | Providence v. St. John's -6 | 70-56 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 41 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #612 Saturday 8* St John's Red Storm vs Providence Friars @ Noon ET - This line opened up at a 7.5 and is now down to a 6 as expected. That is why I have waited and let the markets do their thing. Many are looking at Providence here since they've won 3 straight games over St John's but "that was then and this is now". The key for the Red Storm coming into this season was the eligibility of Mustapha Heron. With Heron playing all season long St John's has been much better than many expected. He combines with Shamorie Ponds to give the Red Storm one of the best backcourts in the Big East. The weakness of St John's is size and depth in the frontcourt and that can be a problem against some teams in the Big East. However, Providence is also a guard-heavy team and their key big man is only a sophomore and I don't expect him to "go off" in this game as St John's 6'7 230lb Marvin Clark has enough size to make sure of that and he is a senior. One of the problems for the Friars is that, even though AJ Reeves is now back, he is still having a horrible time trying to get back into rhythm and has truly been unproductive. The Friars shooting percentage as a team has been atrocious in their last 4 games and it comes as no surprise that they enter this game having lost 3 straight SU and 3 of their last 4 ATS. The Red Storm are 10-2 SU at home this season and are going to make the most of what is just the 2nd home game they've had since mid-January! Providence is 3-7 ATS in conference action this season while the host here is 7-3 ATS in Big East games. Those trends continue here. 8* ST JOHN'S |
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02-08-19 | Nuggets v. 76ers -4.5 | Top | 110-117 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Game #502 Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Denver Nuggets @ 7:05 ET - Both these teams are looking to respond off back to back losses. Also, both the Nuggets and 76ers have fared well against the opposing conference this season. However, there are two key factors that strongly favor the Sixers here. First off, the huge trade with the Clippers that included Tobias Harris is going to lead to a ton of positive energy for Philly in this one. Secondly, that energy level is going to be boosted even higher here because this game is at Philadelphia with the home court edge being a huge factor in this one. The Nuggets are on an ugly 3-12 ATS run in home games! Conversely, the 76ers are a long-term 70-43 ATS in home games. Also, Philly has not lost 3 straight games this season. In other words, you can fully expect the bounce back here with a home victory. However, what about the all important cover? Philadelphia is 9-2 ATS this season when off a divisional game and they are fired up after the ugly loss to the Raptors. Also, the Sixers are 9-1 SU (and 8-2 ATS!) this season when off a loss by a double digit margin! Long-term the 76ers are 35-17 ATS when off a loss by a margin of 10 or more points! The Nuggets, of course, are also looking to bounce back here but they are an ugly 2-6 ATS this season when off an upset loss as a favorite. Also, Denver is an ugly 3-8 ATS in road games with a posted total of 220 points or more. While all 3 Sixers acquisitions from the Clippers are listed as probable for tonight, the Nuggets Gary Harris has been ruled out for this game and Paul Millsap is questionable with his ankle injury still a factor. The Sixers have held 9 of their last 11 opponents to 47% or less from the field. Denver has allowed their last 4 opponents to average 51.4% from the field! Look for the Nuggets to drop to 3-9 ATS this season when off a game in which they allowed 115 points or more. Home blowout here for Sixers rejuvenated with the Harris acquisition. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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02-08-19 | St. Louis v. St. Joe's OVER 131.5 | Top | 61-91 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach CBB Game #851 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in St Joseph's Hawks vs St Louis Billikens @ 7 ET - These teams have a history of playing to the under in recent meetings. However, there is plenty of reason to believe that this one snaps that trend. When these teams met three weeks ago at St Louis, the Hawks shot only 29.5% from the field and allowed the Billikens to shoot only 38.6% from the field. Even with those very ugly numbers the game totaled 125 points. This total, as of early game day morning, is currently as low as 131.5 points and I feel we're getting great value here when you consider the first result between these teams. The reason is because St Joseph's will look to increase the pace on their home floor and also it is highly unlikely that we'll see such poor shooting in the rematch. How unlikely? The Hawks have allowed at least 43% from the field in each of their five games since the loss at St Louis and 4 of the 5 games saw St Joseph's opponents shoot 46% or better from the field. The Hawks allowed 73.6 points per game in those 5 games. Also, St Joseph's other 7 games since mid-January (other than the ugly performance against the Billikens) have seen them held under 40% from the field just 1 other time. In the other 6 games the Hawks averaged 70.3 points per game. You can see why I am expecting this game to get to the 140 to 145 range tonight. The Billikens have allowed their last 3 opponents to average 48% from the field and St Louis has shot 42% or better in 3 straight games. The Hawks are hungry for revenge here and they know they can't afford to let the Billikens turn this game into a "grinder" so I expect a lot of pressure and that can turn into turnovers and quick transition points as well as breakdowns in defense when St Louis beats the pressure. In other words, there is going to be some quick scoring runs throughout this game in my opinion. The over is a perfect 3-0 when St Louis is a road favorite of 3 points or less. The over is 12-5 in St Joseph's February games. Also, the Hawks are 3-0 to the over as a home dog of 3 points or less. 10* OVER the total in St Joseph's |
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02-07-19 | Clippers +6 v. Pacers | Top | 92-116 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Game #575 Thursday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Clippers (+) @ Indiana Pacers @ 7:05 ET - This is one of my typical contrarian plays. The first line that popped up on this game was a -4 early this morning. Keep in mind this is after the public just watched the Pacers destroy the Lakers at home on Tuesday and hand LeBron James the worst loss of his career. Now Indiana is at home again and they're facing the "other" LA team that just traded away Tobias Harris (plus two other role players) to the 76'ers. So, of course, the betting masses are jumping all over the Pacers here and the line got driven up to a -6. I have said this many times before and will say it again here...actually, I will say two things. First off, anything can happen in any game but the key in this business is to always try and have the odds in your favor. That said, my second comment/question as I have stated before is - do you really think the odds makers are stupid? The point being that they are well aware of the impact of the trade. They certainly know Indiana is the home team in this game. Yet they set the line at a 4 with good reason. The betting markets jump all over it and now I am happy to fade the masses and grab the Clippers here. Watch LA "rally the troops" tonight while the Pacers get caught still feeling a little too good about themselves after the blowout of LeBron and Company on Tuesday. Keep in mind, Indiana is playing for the 3rd time in 4 nights. Also, prior to the win over the Lakers, the Pacers were on a 1-5 ATS run. Indiana is also 4-9 ATS this season after scoring 115 points or more. Long-term, the Pacers are an ugly 1-5 ATS (and SU!) when off a game in which they scored 130 points or more. In other words, don't be surprised if the Clips pull off the upset tonight. I am grabbing the "insurance" with having the points however and am happy to have a half dozen points on my side. The Clippers are 4-1 ATS their last 5 road games, on a 16-8 ATS run in February games, and are 20-11 ATS when they enter a game having played each of their 3 prior games on the road. 10* LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS |
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02-07-19 | Penn State v. Ohio State OVER 131 | Top | 70-74 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
TV Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #607 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Ohio State Buckeyes vs Penn State Nittany Lions @ 7 ET - This is a revenge game for the Buckeyes as they lost to the Nittany Lions in the Big Ten Conference Tournament in March. That said, Ohio State is not going to take their foot off the gas in this one and they are known for scoring very well on their home floor. The Buckeyes have averaged 77.3 points per game in their home games this season. However, something about Ohio State always seems to bring out the best in Penn State and the Nittany Lions have averaged 75 points per game in their last 4 games against the Buckeyes. I would not be surprised to see PSU trading buckets with OSU for much of this game and we should see some great scoring runs throughout this contest. The first total that popped up on this game offshore was 132.5 and it dropped to a 131 as of early this morning and I feel we have great value here with the over. Each of the last 5 meetings between these teams have totaled at least 135 points. The over is 8-3 in Penn State's last 11 visits to Ohio State. The over is also 5-1 in the Buckeyes last 6 home games entering this contest. Though the Nittany Lions have mostly trended under this season, the over is 3-1 the last 4 times Penn State has been a road underdog in a range of 6.5 to 9 points. The over is also 3-1 this season in Buckeyes home games versus teams with a losing record. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Ohio State |
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02-06-19 | Wizards v. Bucks OVER 230 | Top | 129-148 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #563 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Bucks vs Washington Wizards @ 8:05 ET - Huge total posted on this game but absolutely justified. The Wizards recently had one strong defensive game at home against Indiana. In their other 4 games since January 27th, Washington has allowed their opponent to shoot 50% or better from the field in all 4 games. The Wizards have allowed an average of 129 points per game in those 4 games. One of those games was at home against the Bucks and the game totaled 246 points. I would not be surprised to see a similar result tonight. Milwaukee did allow only 94 points in their next game but it certainly wasn't due to a lack of pace! The Bucks hosted the Nets and Brooklyn actually attempted 102 shots from the field but it was simply 'one of those nights' and the Nets made just 32.4% of their shots. While fast pace is expected again here, you can expect the Wizards will shoot very well. Washington has shot 49% from the field their last 4 games and averaged 116.6 points per game their last 5 games. The over is 17-7 this season in Wizards games against teams with a winning record. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
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02-06-19 | VCU -6.5 v. George Washington | Top | 60-50 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach CBB Game #795 Wednesday 10* Top Play Virginia Commonwealth Rams @ George Washington Colonials @ 7 ET - This line opened up at nearly double digits but, as of early game day morning, it has dropped to as low as a 6.5 in some big books. This is a great value add for us as we can get a Rams team that I do expect to win by double digits and yet we're laying only about a half-dozen points. Yes, Virginia Commonwealth is on the road here but that is actually part of the key to this play. What that does is keep the line manageable. Had the Rams been at home they would have opened up at around 15 points for sure. The other key about being on the road is that is often how revenge can best be served! VCU is absolutely out for revenge on this very court where they got thoroughly embarrassed last season by a final score of 80 to 56. For this season's rematch, Virginia Commonwealth enters with a solid 15-6 season while George Washington in currently struggling through an ugly 7-14 campaign. The Colonials are off a home win but that came against a bad Fordham team that is just 1-6 on the road this season. Prior to that win, George Washington had lost 5 of their 6 prior games and the average margin of defeat was 9.6 points in those 5 losses. The Rams are surging on an 8-2 SU run and the only two losses were at Rhode Island and Davidson. Those teams are a combined 17-2 SU at home this season! By comparison, the Colonials are 5-7 SU at home this season. By the way, the VCU wins in their 8-2 stretch their last 10 games have come by an average margin of 13 points per victory! The Rams are 20-9 ATSÂ in a road game where the total is 130 to 134.5 points. George Washington is 7-14 ATS when off a win in conference action! 10* VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH |
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02-06-19 | Connecticut v. Temple -3.5 | 63-81 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
PA Insider - Rickenbach CBB Game #782 Wednesday 8* Temple Owls (-) vs Connecticut Huskies @ 6 ET - Even though the Huskies Alterique Gilbert did shoot yesterday he did not participate in practice and the expectation is that he he will not play Wednesday at Temple and will instead return to action at Memphis Sunday. Gilbert is one of Connecticut's top players so his loss is significant. This one sets up very well for the Owls. The Huskies are 1-7 straight-up away from home this season and that includes 7 straight losses with 6 of the 7 coming by 6 or more points! I certainly expect the Owls to take this one by at least a half-dozen points. Part of the key to the value here is that Connecticut has covered 4 straight games and 6 of their last 7 so that is giving them some market respect while bettors are a little down on the Owls right now. That's because Temple is on a 2-3 SU and ATS run. What is important to note about that however is that the Owls, prior to a road win at Tulane in their most recent game, had tough match-ups with Houston and Cincinnati. Of course the Cougars and Bearcats are two of the top teams in the conference and Temple covered at Houston and just missed the cover at home against Cincinnati. The Owls looked like the right side nearly the entire game and should have won the game outright. This is Temple's first home game since they let that game against Cincy get away from them. The Owls are 'chomping at the bit' to make up for that defeat here and will take advantage of a short-handed Huskies team. I look for UConn to drop to 1-4 ATS the last 5 times they have been a road dog in a range of 3.5 to 6 points. The Owls are 7-1 ATS when, past the midway point of a season, they face a team that is averaging 77 points or more on the season. 8* TEMPLE |
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02-05-19 | Raptors v. 76ers -4.5 | Top | 119-107 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #554 Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - This is a great spot for the Sixers from a situational standpoint. Philly is off a loss and they have had two days off since that defeat and they have two days off after this game hosting the Raptors. In other words the 76ers are all in on this game and they're hosting a Toronto team that is expected to be short-handed with Kyle Lowry listed as doubtful (back). The home team is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these teams. 4 of those 5 wins have come by a double digit margin and, in fact, the average margin of victory has been 15 points in those 5 wins. Philadelphia got upset as a favorite at Sacramento Saturday but they are 6-2 ATS the last 8 times they've been off a SU loss. The Raptors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games with a posted total of 220 points or more. The Sixers are 27-16 ATS when playing with 2 days of rest between games. The 76ers are also 33-12 ATS when, in the 2nd half of a season, they are a facing a team that averages 106 points or more per game. Philly is looking to close the gap with Toronto in the Atlantic Division standings and I expect them to get the job done in a big way with strong situational edges here. Of course Lowry being likely to miss this game makes the spot an even stronger one as you know the former Villanova star would love to be playing in Philly tonight but is unlikely the Raptors are going to risk a lot with Lowry so close to the All Star break. Play PHILADELPHIA |
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02-05-19 | St. Joe's v. La Salle -1 | 69-83 | Win | 100 | 10 h 0 m | Show | |
PA Insider - Rickenbach CBB Game #602 Tuesday 8* La Salle Explorers (-) vs St Joseph's Hawks @ 7 ET - This is a big rivalry game in Philly and the home team has won both games each of the last two seasons. Yes, the Explorers have a poor record this season but they've won 3 straight games and I really like what I have seen from La Salle's playing rotation of late. They have meshed well and certainly the same can not be said for the Hawks. St Joseph's has won just 2 of their 5 games since losing star Lamarr Kimble to a hand injury. Keep in mind those two victories came at home and came against two of the worst teams in the Atlantic Ten. While it is true the Explorers also have a poor record, the fact is they are playing very well of late plus this game is AT La Salle. These are key factors as is the recent return to form of Saul Phiri. He has made 13 of 25 three pointers in his last 4 games and averaged 13.3 points per game during this stretch. Combining with Isiah Deas and Pookie Powell, the veteran guard combinations of the Explorers lead them to a home win here. Coming into this season St Joseph's was counting on Kimble as well as relying on contributions from Pierfrancesco Oliva (also out) and Anthony Longpre (questionable with a concussion). The healthier and more confident team gets the win here. 8* LA SALLE |
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02-05-19 | South Carolina v. Kentucky -15.5 | Top | 48-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach CBB Game #618 Tuesday 10* Top Play Kentucky Wildcats (-) vs South Carolina Gamecocks @ 7 ET - Long-time followers know I rarely lay big points and for me to do so requires exactly the ideal situation. This particular case is the text book example of a perfect time to lay big points with a favorite that is set up perfectly to absolutely crush their opponent by 20+ points. The very first number that popped up on this game yesterday afternoon was 18 and it is down to a 15.5 as of early this morning. Both teams are off wins but while Kentucky had a "growth game" for its, as usual, young roster by rallying for a win; the Gamecocks were off a wire to wire win but that was thanks to hitting an insanely high percentage of their three pointers. That won't happen again here. The Wildcats have been patiently waiting for this opportunity. Last season the Cats led the Gamecocks by 14 in the 2nd half and then they watched Chris Silva take over for South Carolina and lead them to the huge comeback win. It is payback time here and that is a key when laying big points. The point is that the Wildcats, even with a big lead, will not take their foot off the gas in this one and it is set up to be a home blowout. Kentucky's frontcourt will be a key in stopping Silva. Note that PJ Washington is now a sophomore and another big forward, senior Reid Travis was NOT with the Wildcats last season (he played his first four with Stanford). Travis has been a key player for Kentucky this season and will help Washington in slowing down Silva. As for the outside game of the Gamecocks, their three-point shooting will cool off quickly at Kentucky as the Wildcats have turned up the heat on defense (including perimeter defense) and that has played a key role in their 8 games winning streak. The Cats have covered 6 in a row too! Also, in the last 7 games of this 8-game winning streak they only had 1 poor game defensively. In the other 6 they allowed an average of only 53 points per game! Keep in mind, Kentucky is averaging 80 points per game at home this season. So if the Wildcats hold South Carolina to 53 and they hit their usual scoring average they win this 80-53. I honestly would not be surprised to see that and I do see this win coming by 20 points or more! 10* KENTUCKY |
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02-04-19 | Hawks +6 v. Wizards | Top | 137-129 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Game #533 Monday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks (+) @ Washington Wizards @ 7:05 ET - When you look at Monday's full NBA card you see the following teams favored: Spurs, Rockets, Pacers, Bucks, Nuggets, and Wizards. What sticks out when you look at the list? There is only one team with a losing record that is in that list and it is the team I am fading right here. Now I know the Hawks, of course, are not a great team. However, they are catching about a half-dozen points here against a Wizards team that is only 4-5 SU in their last 9 games and two of those wins came by 4 points or less. In other words, laying 6 points with Washington would result in a 2-7 ATS record their last 9 games. The Hawks are seeking revenge for a double digit loss when these teams most recently met, also in DC, in early January. Atlanta is wrapping up a 7-game road trip and, although they are still not home, the Hawks are happy to be back east again. Atlanta is 3-3 so far on this trip and is hell-bent on finishing with a winning road trip. They are going hard for the 4th win here and I expect them to be the more motivated team here. Interestingly, the Wizards have a game on deck at Milwaukee and that is the same Bucks team that they just got throttled by at home by a double digit margin Saturday. Could the Wizards overlook the Hawks? With Atlanta having a 17-35 record you better believe it! Look for the Hawks to improve to 8-4 ATS this season in road games with a posted total of 230 points or more. Washington is off an ugly loss to Milwaukee but is 2-8 ATS this season when off a game in which they allowed 130 points or more. 10* ATLANTA |
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02-04-19 | Louisville v. Virginia Tech -3.5 | Top | 72-64 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #852 Monday 10* Top Play Virginia Tech Hokies (-) vs Louisville Cardinals @ 7 ET - The line was as high as a -6 and has dropped to 3.5 as of early Monday morning. This line move is opening up great value on the home favorite here. I understand the move as the Hokies are off a dominating win over NC State Saturday while the Cardinals are off an ugly loss versus North Carolina the same day and so many bettors are playing the zig-zag theory here. Additionally, Virginia Tech will be without guard Justin Robinson again as he his out indefinitely with a foot injury. However, Robinson didn't play Saturday either and that was a 47-24 win at NC State! As for Louisville, they were at home on Saturday versus North Carolina but still had an ugly game and got dominated on the glass. Adding to the value with the Hokies here is the fact that they were swept by the Cardinals in last season's meetings and Louisville has won 5 straight over Virginia Tech! Coach Buzz Williams and his players are out for revenge (big-time!) on Monday night and being on their home floor certainly will help. The Hokies are 11-0 SU at Cassel Coliseum this season and they are beginning a three-game homestand with this revenge opportunity tonight. The Cardinals are just 4-4 SU this season in their games played away from Louisville. Only one of the Hokies 18 wins this season has come by less than 6 points and in fact, 15 of the 18 victories have come by a double digit margin. Look for another home blowout here. 10* VIRGINIA TECH |
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02-03-19 | Stanford v. California OVER 145 | Top | 84-81 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #833 Saturday CBB 10* Top Play OVER the total in California Golden Bears vs Stanford Cardinal @ 4 ET - Those who appreciate strong defensive play in college hoops might want to look elsewhere on Saturday. The Cardinal are allowing 74 points per game on the road this season. The Golden Bears are allowing 50% from the field, 38.5% from three point land, and 79 points per game on the season! Each of the last 3 regular season meetings between these teams has resulted in an over and this total on Sunday is low enough to fully expect another one. The over is 4-2 in Stanford's last 6 road games. The over is 4-2 in California's last 6 home games. The average points scored in the last 6 road games for the Cardinal is 151. For Cal, 5 of their last 6 home games have totaled at least 146 points. That is why the small drop on this total this morning carries even a little more significance for our purposes here. In terms of long-term trending, the over is 11-3 in Stanford's February games the last two years. The over is 4-1 when the Golden Bears are playing with 7 or more days of rest between games and also 4-1 when the Bears are a home dog in a range of 3.5 to 6 points. Look all these trends to continue here on Sunday afternoon. 10* OVER the total in California |
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02-03-19 | Thunder v. Celtics OVER 226 | Top | 129-134 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Game #527 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Celtics vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 2:05 ET - The recent match-up history between these teams has trended under and that is the direction many will be looking in this one as a result. However, the way these two have been playing of late and the fact this is a non-conference match-up (generally a little less defensive intensity in those), has me looking for a solid over in this match-up. Both teams are red hot. The Celtics have won 8 of their last 9 games and averaged 116 points per game in doing so. The Thunder have won 7 straight games and they've reached the century mark in each of their last dozen games. In fact, Oklahoma City has averaged 124 points per game in these 12 games. Two of those games did go to OT but if we remove those points for the Thunder they are still averaging, in regulation, 122 points per game those dozen games! The over is 10-2 in those 12 OKC games! The over is 7-2 in Oklahoma City's last 9 games versus teams that average 106 points or more per game. The over is 14-4 this season in Thunder games when they are coming off a non-conference game. The over is 13-5 this season when the Celtics face a team with a winning record. History says under but the current play of these two teams absolutely suggests otherwise. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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02-02-19 | Alabama v. Auburn -9 | Top | 63-84 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #746 Saturday 10* Top Play Auburn Tigers (-) vs Alabama Crimson Tide @ 8 ET - The Tigers have had to wait a long time for this rematch and I fully expect a home blowout here. Last March, in the SEC Tournament, Auburn led Alabama by double digits at the half. By virtue of a great shooting performance for the Crimson Tide and a horrible shooting performance for the Tigers, Alabama had a huge 2nd half and won the game by 18 points! It was a beatdown (outscored by 28 in the 2nd half) that Auburn most certainly has not forgotten and it is payback time here. The Tigers are the better team this season, they are at home, and they are playing with big-time revenge. That is why I am willing to lay a big number here as I feel strongly that Auburn will get a double digit lead here and then, because of what happened in March, the Tigers absolutely will keep their foot on the gas! The Crimson Tide are off a big win but that was at home against Mississippi State. Prior to knocking off the Bulldogs, Alabama had lost 4 of 6. The Tigers are a huge 10-1 this season and the lone loss was to Kentucky! The 10 home wins for Auburn have been games decided by a victory margin of 30.2 points! You read that right...THIRTY point margin of victory on average! Another home blowout expected here as the Tigers get revenge in a big way! 10* AUBURN |
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02-02-19 | Bucks v. Wizards OVER 227 | Top | 131-115 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Wizards vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 7:05 ET - The odds makers made a huge mistake, right? The first total that popped up on this game was a 231.5 on Friday afternoon. Of course with the history of unders between these teams and the perceived "mistake" the total has been driven down to a 227 as of early Saturday morning. I am happy to jump on the over and grab the added value here. The Bucks are off a very strong defensive effort to get a big win over Toronto, the top team in the East. Milwaukee entered that game having allowed an average of 111.5 points per game in their two prior games. As for the Wizards, they are off a surprisingly strong effort on the defensive end as they held the Pacers to 89 points in their win over Indiana. Prior to that, Washington had allowed 124 points per game in their two prior games. While one could argue that those were on the road, also note that prior to beating Indiana the Wizards allowed 126 points in their most recent home game. Both the Bucks and Wizards have been scoring a ton of points and now coming off big wins that involved huge defensive efforts I expect a letdown on D here and an all-out offensive onslaught in this game to result! Note that the over is 21-12 when Milwaukee is off an upset win as an underdog and that includes 3-1 this season. The Bucks are also on a 29-10 run to the over in Saturday games including 6-2 to the over this season. The over is 13-5 in Wizards home games with a posted total of 220 points or more this season. Washington is 6-1 to the over this season when playing with 2 days of rest between games. The Wizards are also on a 23-10 run to the over in Saturday games including 6-1 to the over this season. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Washington |
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02-02-19 | Texas Tech v. Kansas OVER 133 | 63-79 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach CBB Game #677 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Kansas Jayhawks vs Texas Tech Red Raiders @ 4 ET - This total is being kept on the low side because the Red Raiders have played in a lot of low-scoring "grinder" games this season. However, Kansas is going to dictate the pace in this game on their home floor and I expect that to lead to a solid over. The last 4 meetings between the Jayhawks and Texas Tech have all gone over the total. Also, the over is a perfect 7-0 in Kansas games with a posted total in the 130s. The Red Raiders have trended under this season but the over is 6-1 in Texas Tech's Saturday games. The over is 8-3 in Jayhawks home games this season. The Red Raiders enter this game having shot 53% from the field in their last two games but the Texas Tech defense has surrendered 44% from the field over the last 5 games. This reflects the fact that the Red Raiders defense has not been nearly as stifling as it was earlier this season. With Kansas looking to "explode" on offense after being stifled in back to back tough road games (held to 63 at Texas and at Kentucky) this one is set to fly over the total. The Jayhawks are averaging 81 points per game at home this season and get back on track here but look for the hot-shooting Red Raiders to match them bucket for bucket in this one. 8* OVER the total in Kansas |
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02-02-19 | Youngstown State +5.5 v. Detroit | 72-70 | Win | 100 | 5 h 2 m | Show | |
ATS Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #623 Saturday 8* Youngstown State Penguins (+) @ Detroit Mercy Titans @ 1 ET - The scrappy Penguins continue to be road warriors. Yes this is a match-up of two of the weaker teams in the Horizon League but these are the types of situations that can create great value with a hungry underdog and that is the case here. Youngstown State is off of an upset win at Oakland Thursday. The Penguins are now 3-1 ATS when they are a road dog of 5 or more points and all 3 of those wins were outright upsets! Youngstown State won at IUPUI and Wisconsin-Milwaukee in addition to the Thursday win. The Penguins will be extra hungry here as, even though Detroit Mercy is off back to back poor seasons, the Titans continue to have Youngstown State's number. Detroit beat the Penguins at Youngstown State in late December and now it is payback time. With each road win, the confidence of the Penguins continues to grow. Also, Youngstown State is 5-1 ATS when on short rest (1 day or less) this season while Detroit Mercy is 8-12 ATS when facing a team with a losing record after the mid-way point in a season. Look for the typical Titans late season fade to be in full effect here. Keep in mind, though Detroit Mercy is off a win they previously were 2-4 SU and ATS in their six prior games and their defense has been atrocious. The Titans allowed an average of 83.3 points per game in this 6-game stretch. Detroit fits the bill as a false favorite here and though I do expect yet another road upset for the scrappy Penguins, I will grab the points as added insurance should they fall a bucket or two short. 8* YOUNGSTOWN STATE |
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02-01-19 | Grizzlies v. Hornets -4.5 | Top | 92-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #582 Friday 10* Top Play Charlotte Hornets (-) vs Memphis Grizzlies @ 7:05 ET - The Hornets had a 6-8 January but 10 of their 14 games were on the road! Charlotte is a different team when they are at home. They've won 3 straight home games and the average victory margin in those games was 16 points. Also, the Hornets run at home goes further back than that. They're 7-1 in all home games since mid-December and the 7 wins all came by 9 or more points with an average victory margin of 15.6 per win! While Charlotte, despite a sub-.500 record, is battling for the top spot in the Southeast Division, the Grizzlies are 12 games below .500 and in the basement of the Southwest Division. Memphis also had let it be know that they were willing to take offers on a Conley/Gasol package but they were trying to unload Parsons contract as part of the deal. In any event, the point is that the Grizzlies are in disarray right now while the Hornets are batting hard for the division lead as we head closer to the All-Star break. Memphis has lost 16 of their last 18 games! The Grizzlies are 0-8 in their last 8 road games and they lost those games by an average margin of 13.8 points per defeat! The Hornets are 4-0 SU and ATS in the last 4 meetings between these teams and the very first line that popped up on this game yesterday was 6.5 but it has dropped to 4.5 and I am grabbing the great value with the small home favorite. 10* CHARLOTTE |
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02-01-19 | Northern Kentucky v. IUPU-Indianapolis +4 | 77-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
ATS Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #864 Friday 8* IUPUI Jaguars (+) vs Northern Kentucky Norse @ 7 ET - The very first line that opened up on this one had the Norse at only -2 and that line got driven up to as high as a -4 as expected. As per usual, I am on the other side of the move. Of course it looked for bettors to take 18-4 Northern Kentucky at such a low number against a 13-9 IUPUI team but the key here is home court. The Norse are just 3-6 ATS in road games this season. They're coming off a great defensive effort at home versus UW-Milwaukee but they are 1-5 ATS this season when off a game in which they allowed 60 points or less. Also, Northern Kentucky is just 2-7 ATS this season in games against teams with a winning record. The Jaguars are a long-term 25-10 SU in home games and that includes 8-2 this season. Also, IUPUI has revenge on their minds as they've lost all 3 games against the Norse in Horizon League action. Though the Jags lost at Northern Kentucky in late December, IUPUI actually had 13 more field goal attempts than the Norse but it was simply an extraordinary shooting night for Northern Kentucky. That is highly unlikely to be repeated on the road and it will be the Jaguars that are likely to have the better shooting night (thanks to their home floor) in the rematch. Keep in mind, compared to last season's team, the Jags now have a Vandy transfer (Camron Justice) leading the way and I can see him taking over in a big game like this. Look for the Jaguars to improve to a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS the last 3 times they've been a home dog of 3.5 to 6 points. I am grabbing the points! 8* IUPUI |
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02-01-19 | Michigan v. Iowa OVER 141.5 | Top | 59-74 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #861 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Iowa Hawkeyes vs Michigan Wolverines @ 7 ET - The fact this game is at Iowa makes a big difference. This is a contrarian play because Michigan is allowing just 56 points per game this season. If that average were to hold true and they win the game by 4 points as odds makers are calling for, you've got a 60-56 game that falls well short of this total. So the odds makers must have made a big mistake, right? Of course not! The fact is that Iowa is fully capable of putting up big points (they average 82 per game this season) and this is particularly true when they are at home where the shooters are even more comfortable. The over is actually 7-1 the last 8 times these teams have met at Iowa. The Hawkeyes also lost to the Wolverines in the Big Ten tourney last season so there is extra motivation here - and, by the way, that neutral site game also went over the total. The Hawkeyes enter this game off a defeat and the over is 4-0 this season when they are off a Big Ten loss. The over is 9-5 in Michigan's February games the past two years. The long-term trending of these games going over when the Hawkeyes are the host continues here. 10* OVER the total in Iowa |
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01-31-19 | Xavier v. Georgetown OVER 152.5 | Top | 73-80 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach CBB Game #635 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Georgetown Hoyas vs Xaviers Musketeers @ 8 ET - The last 7 meetings between these teams have all gone over the total. In addition to that perfect 7-0 O/U record, the over is 11-3 this season in Georgetown's games against teams with a winning record. The Hoyas are on an 8-1 run to the over in their last 9 games overall. Georgetown is averaging 87 points per game this season but their defense certainly has not been overly impressive. That is where Xavier will look to take advantage. The Musketeers are off a loss versus Marquette Saturday where they had a big lead but perhaps got a little too complacent with hit and they paid the ultimate price as the Golden Eagles rallied for the win. Xavier won't make the same mistake here and they'll push the pace all game long and certainly the Hoyas are proven to enjoy the "run and gun" game this season. The over is 4-1 in the Musketeers last 5 games. Xavier has struggled to stop the 3-point shot this season and the Hoyas are averaging 38% from beyond the arc in their home games. In other words, look for a high-paced shootout and I am happy to take advantage of the line move here too as this one opened up at a 155 but is down to a 152.5 as of early game day morning. 10* OVER the total in Georgetown |
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01-31-19 | Texas-San Antonio v. Western Kentucky -6 | 88-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
ATS Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #634 Thursday 8* Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (-) vs UTSA Roadrunners @ 8 ET - This is an ideal set-up. UTSA is off of their miracle win at home against Old Dominion Saturday where the Roadrunners were down huge late but had an unreal rally in the final minutes for the last second win. Now UTSA goes back on the road where they lost (and failed to cover) each of their past two games. In fact, home teams are now on a 6-0 ATS run in Roadrunners games. Adding to the value here is they're heading to Western Kentucky and this Hilltoppers team has revenge on its mind. Not only did the Hilltoppers lose at UTSA last season, they also were knocked out of the CUSA Tourney the prior spring. That makes this a double revenge spot and Western Kentucky is at home and has played a tougher schedule in comparison with the Roadrunners. The Hilltoppers are 10-5 ATS when facing a team with a winning record this season. Also, they won by 15 the last time they hosted UTSA. The Roadrunners are 1-3 ATS the last 4 times they've been a road dog of 6.5 to 9 points. That is the range that this one opened up in and now that it has dropped to a 6 there is even more value with the host as I am expecting a home blowout in this one. The Hilltoppers are off a loss but that game was at Louisiana Tech and now they are at home where they've won 4 of their last 5 including wins over St Mary's and Wisconsin in non-conference action. 8* WESTERN KENTUCKY |
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01-31-19 | Mavs +2 v. Pistons | Top | 89-93 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #571 Thursday 10* Top Play Dallas Mavericks (+) @ Detroit Pistons @ 7:05 ET - Though this is a back to back spot for the Mavericks, there are a couple of key factors as to why there is plenty of value here. First off, Dallas blew out the Knicks so easily last night that no one played more than 29 minutes. Secondly, that game was preceded by 2 off days. Also, up next for the Mavericks is a stretch that sees them with just 1 game in the first 5 days of February. In other words, Dallas will go all out here and they are a hot 5-0 ATS their last 5 games. Additionally, the Mavericks are actually on a 3-1 ATS run the last 4 times they've played the 2nd game of a back to back and that stretch included games at Portland, at Oklahoma City, at Philadelphia, and versus the Clippers. All 4 of those teams are much tougher opponents than this stumbling and bumbling dysfunctional Pistons squad. Detroit enter this game on a 5-12 SU run. Lets also not forget about the East/West factor. In non-conference games the Pistons are 7-10 SU this season. As for the Mavericks, with last night's blowout win, they are now 13-5 ATS in non-conference games. Also, Dennis Smith Jr had a triple double last night and the Mavs are a perfect 4-0 ATS in the 4 games since he returned to the lineup as he is a key running mate with Luke Doncic and this is a dangerous Dallas team when they are on the floor together. Of course the Pistons would like to get revenge for last week's loss at Dallas but the Mavericks are fighting even harder than Detroit has been when it comes to staying alive in their respective conference playoff races. The Pistons are 4-9 SU when off a double digit loss. The Mavs are 26-13 ATS against teams that allow 106 points or more per game. 10* DALLAS |
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01-30-19 | Mavs v. Knicks OVER 217 | Top | 114-90 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #555 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Knicks vs Dallas Mavericks @ 7:35 ET - The Mavericks are off a strong scoring effort but fell just short in their loss versus the Raptors Sunday. Dallas is 8-5 to the over this season when off a game in which they scored 115 points or more. Also, the Mavs are seeking revenge in this games as they lost when they hosted the Knicks earlier this season. As a result, look for Dallas to go hard here and not take their foot off the gas even if they get a big lead. The Mavericks are 5-2 to the over this season when playing with home loss revenge. As for New York, they didn't score well in their most recent home game but that was against defensive-minded Miami. Prior to that game the Knicks 4 prior home games saw them average 107.5 points per game. Also, their match-ups with Western Conference opponents are known for being high-scoring. The over is 10-5 this season in New York's non-conference games. Dallas has gone 5-2 to the over this season in games against Atlantic Division opponents. The Mavericks first game with the Knicks totaled 224 points and I fully expect a similar total to be amassed in the rematch as the situation is ideal for a high-scoring game. 10* OVER the total in New York |
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01-30-19 | Marquette v. Butler -2.5 | Top | 76-58 | Loss | -112 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Game #784 Wednesday 10* Top Play Butler Bulldogs (-) vs Marquette Golden Eagles @ 6:30 ET - To the casual observer this line will look "off" but it is truly anything but. The betting markets may be a little confused as to how a Top Ten Marquette team that has won 7 straight games can be in the range of a 3-point dog against a Butler team that has lost 6 of its last 9 games. After all, take a look at the records too: Golden Eagles (18-3, 7-1 Big East) and the Bulldogs (12-9, 3-5 Big East). Wow, the odds makers made a big mistake, right? Long-time followers know how I feel about that. Many will be lining up on Marquette here but sharps will be on Butler as this game has home rout written all over it. The Golden Eagles are off an improbable win at Xavier as they were down by double digits to the Musketeers in the 2nd half. How did they do it? Ridiculous 3-point shooting which won't be repeated here. Marquette made 56% of their three pointers Saturday and that was in a road game folks. The Golden Eagles previously had one other insane road performance when they knocked down 57.1% of their threes at Creighton in a game they still only won by 2 points. Other than that, Marquette has been held to 28% from beyond the arc in their other 3 true road games (at Georgetown, St. Johns, and Indiana). The Bulldogs are a tough team to face at Butler and they're knocking down 40% of their threes in home games this season. They have played at Creighton and have faced Villanova and St John's in their last 3 games. Battle tested and ready for a statement win tonight, the Bulldogs did beat the Red Storm by 9 and that is the same team that crushed these Golden Eagles by 20 before they began their 7 game winning streak which has not included facing Villanova. The point is that the Golden Eagles are a little over-rated right now and the odds makers and sharp bettors know this but the betting masses are still overly high on Marquette right now. Creates an interesting match-up tonight and I also like the fact that Butler is a perfect 3-0 ATS this season when they're at home off back to back ATS losses. Marquette is 17-27 ATS (including 2-4 ATS this season) when off a game in which they scored 80 or more points. The Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS their last 5 games against the Golden Eagles and they get the cash again on Wednesday evening. 10* BUTLER |
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01-29-19 | Bucks v. Pistons OVER 218.5 | Top | 115-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #541 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Pistons vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 7:05 ET - I know these teams have trended under in recent weeks. I am also aware of the fact that recent meetings between these teams each of the last few seasons have trended under the total as well. However, in typical contrarian fashion here, I am backing the over. Of course it is not without plenty of good reason. First off the Bucks have averaged 114.3 points per game in their 3 games against the Pistons this season. As for Detroit, though they struggled in their games at Milwaukee, they have averaged 107 points per game the last two times they've hosted the Bucks. The Pistons made 14 three pointers in their most recent home contest versus the Bucks and, like most teams, perform better on the offensive end when at home. Detroit is also well rested here and the over is 7-3 the last 10 times the Pistons entered a game with 3 or more days of rest between games. Look for the over to improve to 4-1 this season in Detroit's Tuesday games. As for the Bucks, they're fired up off a loss at Oklahoma City. Milwaukee is 29-14 to the over when off a game in which they allowed 115 points or more. The Bucks won't take their foot off the gas in this one against the Pistons. 10* OVER the total in Detroit |
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01-29-19 | Kansas v. Texas OVER 139 | Top | 63-73 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
Game of the Week total - Rickenbach CBB Game #619 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas Longhorns vs Kansas Jayhawks @ 7 ET - The very first total that popped up on this game was 141 yesterday. It has been adjusted down to as low as a 139 now. The last 7 meetings between these teams have all totaled at least 142 points. That's 7 straight game totals in match-ups between these teams that have eclipsed the total on this game. I understand the mindset that the Longhorns have to bounce back at home after giving up 98 points at Georgia in the Big 12/SEC Challenge this past weekend. However, Texas giving up high percentage shots on defense has been a recurring them in recent weeks. The O/U in Horns games is now 4-1 their last 5 and that includes 2-0 in home games. The Longhorns have allowed an average of 76.6 points per game during this stretch. As for Kansas, they employ a 4-guard lineup and of course that can cause some issues defending the paint and rebounding. The Jayhawks can score just fine though as they're averaging 77.3 points per game on the season. However, Kansas has allowed 72.5 points per game their last 4 games and the Longhorns have averaged 78 points per game in their last 3 meetings with the Jayhawks. That includes the 80-78 loss at Kansas two weeks ago. The over is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings between these teams. Also, the over is 7-0 in Jayhawks games with a posted total between 130 and 139.5 points. The Kansas over is also 9-3 this season when off a non-conference game. The over is 5-2 in the Longhorns last 7 home games. 10* OVER the total in Texas |
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01-29-19 | Ohio v. Northern Illinois -4.5 | 60-71 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #624 Tuesday 8* Northern Illinois Huskies (-) vs Ohio University Bobcats @ 8 ET - This line has dropped all the way from, in many books, opening as high as a 7 to getting bet down to a 4.5 as of early morning on game day. I do understand the move as everyone is looking at the revenge angle for the Bobcats here. The Huskies beat them at Ohio University in overtime in their MAC opener. However, the fact that Northern Illinois was able to erase a double digit deficit early in the second half of that game on the road at Ohio U is a bad sign for the Bobcats here. This game is being played at DeKalb and the Huskies are coming off a loss. That loss was not unexpected. After beating Buffalo, the best team in the MAC, Northern Illinois went on the road and was flat, as expected, and came up short at Akron. However, the Huskies are now back home and they are 7-1 SU (and 6-1 ATS) this season when coming off a loss this season. The Bobcats are a horrible team at the free throw line and that also tells you what kind of shooters they have. Ohio U, in road games this season, is making just 38.8% from the field (30% from beyond the arc) and just 62.8% from the free throw line. Northern Illinois is making 51.2% from the field at home (including 36% three pointers) and knocking down 72.3% from the charity stripe. The Huskies top four players all provide veteran leadership. I don't see them losing back to back games as that has happened only once this season. UNI is 6-1 ATS in home games and the Bobcats are 1-5 ATS in road games. All 8 Ohio U losses this season have come by 6 or more points. The Huskies only win this season by less than a 6 point margin was their 2-point upset win of the Bulls which was an accomplishment in and of itself. The point is that you can see why I am expecting the win and the cover for the home team in this one. 8* NORTHERN ILLINOIS |
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01-28-19 | Warriors v. Pacers OVER 226 | Top | 132-100 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #529 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Indiana Pacers vs Golden State Warriors @ 7:05 ET - The Warriors are off of an under but the over was 9-2 in Golden State's 11 prior games. The Pacers enter this game with a record of 10-4 to the over in their last 14 games. The teams combined for 232 points in their most recent meeting in Indiana. The Warriors have been red hot and scoring a ton of points. Golden State is averaging 129 points their last 12 games. If they hit that "average" here and win by 9 as the odds makers are projecting you're talking about a 129-120 game. I am not saying we're going to see 249 points here but I do feel that this number shows we have some great value with playing the over in this match-up. The Pacers have had just one bad game offensively in their last 7 games. In the other 6 games as a host since Christmas, Indiana has averaged 119 points per game. Truly one could make the argument this is going to be a 129 to 119 type of game. The over is 13-7 in Golden State's road games with a posted total of 220 points or more this season. The over is a perfect 3-0 the last 3 times Indiana has entered a game off a road loss. They bounce back with a strong performance on the offensive end on their home floor but they aren't going to stop a Warriors team that will go all out in looking to cap a perfect 5-0 road trip. Golden State won't hold back here as they have two off days on deck before facing the Sixers Thursday. Also, the Warriors are seeking revenge for getting swept by the Pacers last season so they won't take their foot off the gas either. 10* OVER the total in Indiana |
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01-28-19 | Duke v. Notre Dame +14.5 | Top | 83-61 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #852 Monday 10* Top Play Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+) vs Duke Blue Devils @ 7 ET - With the Blue Devils off that suffocating effort on defense in their win over the Yellow Jackets Saturday, and the Fighting Irish off a blowout home loss versus Virginia the same day, everyone is lining up on Duke here (line has gone from -13 to -14.5 as of early Monday AM). The Blue Devils did get guard Tre Jones back from injury and that helped them run their full court press against Georgia Tech. However, even though Notre Dame lost senior guard Rex Pflueger to injury earlier this season and have turned to freshman Prentiss Hubb at the point, they still have done a great job of not turning the ball over. To that point, Duke is turning the ball over 13 times per game this season while Notre Dame is averaging only 10 turnovers per game. I like having the big points here with an Irish team that is off a blowout home loss and now facing a Duke team that has been struggling badly with its outside shooting for a few weeks now. From beyond the arc, the Blue Devils have been shooting a very poor percentage. That makes it tough to create a big winning margin in games and it comes as no surprise that Duke is just 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games. By the way, in games in which Tre Jones has played it is an 0-3 ATS run for the Blue Devils! Also, Duke is 0-2 ATS the past two seasons in road games where they are favored in a range of 12.5 to 15 points. When playing with one day or less of rest between games this season the Blue Devils are 2-2 SU (1-3 ATS) this season while the Fighting Irish are 2-0 SU. I expect Duke to win this game but by single digits as the Irish give a huge effort after the embarrassing home loss to the Cavaliers Saturday. 10* NOTRE DAME |
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01-28-19 | Southern Utah v. Northern Arizona OVER 149 | 77-80 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show | |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach CBB Game #857 Monday 8* OVER the total in Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs Southern Utah Thunderbirds @ 2 ET - The Thunderbirds are allowing 80.2 points on the road this season. The Lumberjacks are allowing 76.9 points per game at home this season. There will be a good pace to this game and plenty of open looks at the basket based on the way these two teams play. Northern Arizona is off a rare low-scoring game but they faced Northern Colorado, one of the best teams in the Big Sky Conference. Similarly, Southern Utah is also off a game versus Northern Colorado and that stayed under the total. But the over was 6-1 in their 7 prior games in conference action. Also, when off a loss in conference action, the Thunderbirds are 20-11 to the over including a perfect 3-0 this season. Unlike Southern Utah, the Lumberjacks have more trends pointing toward the under in this match-up. However, Northern Arizona is knocking down 37.6% of their three pointers when at home and the Thunderbirds are allowing 37.4% three pointers on the road. That will prove to be a key to this match-up going over the total and both teams are poised to bounce back. Southern Utah was averaging 83.3 in their 4 games prior to the loss at Northern Colorado. The Lumberjacks had scored 81 points or more in 3 of their 4 games prior to their horrific effort on their home floor against Northern Colorado Saturday. Both teams will be happy to "run and gun" here after having just faced a tough Bears team. 8* OVER the total in Northern Arizona |
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01-27-19 | Raptors v. Mavs OVER 219 | Top | 123-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #517 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Dallas Mavericks vs Toronto Raptors @ 7:05 ET - Mavericks games have resulted in unders in 5 straight games and 13 of their last 15. So how I am playing this one? Contrarian of course and going over the total but it is with good reason. First off Dallas has looked much better in their last two games since Dennis Smith Jr returned. He and Luka Doncic give the Mavs a powerful 1-2 punch. As for the Raptors, Kawhi Leonard finally came back after 4 games off. Though the Raptors lost that game at Houston they did put up 119 points. With Toronto entering this game off back to back losses and Leonard able to quickly shake the rust off in his first game back, this one is likely to be played at a great pace with plenty of points. The Raptors have averaged 117 points per game in their last 13 games. They are favored by 5 points here. Toronto winning this game by 117-112 certainly would not come as a surprise and that is a full 10 points over the posted total on this game. The Raptors are 5-1 to the over in games against Southwest Division opponents this season. The Mavericks are 5-1 to the over in Sunday games this season. 10* OVER the total in Dallas |
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01-27-19 | Bucks +1.5 v. Thunder | 112-118 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #515 Sunday 8* Milwaukee Bucks (+) @ Oklahoma City Thunder @ 6:05 ET - The Thunder opened up as just a pick'em on their home floor. Of course they quickly became the popular choice of the betting markets on their home floor and the line has already moved their direction as of early Sunday morning. Look for the key to this game to be defense and that is where the Bucks have been the much more impressive team of late. Milwaukee has held 5 of its last 6 opponents to 41.9% or less from the field. Conversely, Oklahoma City is allowing opponents to hit 50.1% from the field their last 8 games! While it is true that the Thunder have won 4 straight games they are also just 5-5 their last 10 games. The Bucks have not only won 6 straight games, they've also gone 17-3 their last 20 games. 8* MILWAUKEE |
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01-27-19 | Iowa v. Minnesota OVER 151 | Top | 87-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach CBB Game #835 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Iowa Hawkeyes @ 5 ET - Iowa is averaging 82 points per game this season. Minnesota is averaging 80 points per game at home this season. The over is a long-term 17-9 when the Hawkeyes are off a Big Ten loss and that includes a perfect 3-0 this season. Also, when on the road in a game with a line ranging from pick'em to +3, Iowa has gone a perfect 3-0 to the over the past two seasons. Minnesota is 4-1 to the over the past two seasons in home games in which their line ranges from pick'em to -3. The Golden Gophers are also 3-0 to the over this season when off a game in which they were held to 60 points or less. Minny goes from facing the Big Ten's top defense (Michigan) to one of the Big Ten's worst (Iowa). The Hawkeyes go from facing a strong Michigan State defense to facing a Gophers D that, prior to the low-scoring grudge match with the Wolverines, had allowed 78 points per game in their 4 prior games. The Golden Gophers are allowing 38% three pointers at home this season and Iowa is a strong team from beyond the arc. This one turns into a shootout. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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01-27-19 | Seton Hall +8.5 v. Villanova | 52-80 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 24 m | Show | |
PA Insider - Rickenbach CBB Game #831 Sunday 8* Seton Hall Pirates (+) @ Villanova Wildcats @ 2:30 ET - The Wildcats have won 7 straight games but 4 of their last 6 victories have come by a margin of 8 or less points. Seton Hall is "only" 12-7 on the season but, after getting blown out by a margin of 23 points in their first loss of the season, the Pirates last 6 losses have come by an average margin of just 4 points per game defeat. 5 of the 6 defeats came by a margin of 5 or less points. Look for Seton Hall to truly fit the definition of a "tough out" in this match-up with the Wildcats. The Pirates are 5-2 ATS this season as an underdog. Villanova enters this game having covered 3 straight games but that is their longest ATS streak of the season. Prior to the win at Butler in their most recent game, the last 3 times the Wildcats entered a game on an ATS winning streak of 2 or more games, they failed to cover ALL 3 times! As for the Pirates, they are off back to back non-covers. That has happened 4 other times this season with Seton Hall. All 4 occurrences have resulted in the Pirates covering their next game. A perfect 4-0 ATS run. 8* SETON HALL |
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01-26-19 | 76ers v. Nuggets -9 | Top | 110-126 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #508 Saturday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (-) vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 9:05 ET - It is evident the Sixers are treating this as a "throw away" game. Joel Embiid is being given the night off even though Philadelphia has had two days off leading into this game and also has two days off coming up after this game. Jimmy Butler is dealing with a wrist injury that is likely to keep him out of this game. Also, Wilson Chandler is out with a hamstring injury. Of course he would have loved to go against his former team but that is not going to happen. As for his former team, the Nuggets, they are in a back to back spot here BUT it was a home game for Denver last night versus Phoenix and they rolled to an easy win. That 132 to 95 victory was so easy in fact that the Nuggets were able to rest a ton throughout the game. Speaking of fresh legs for tonight, Nikola Jokic did not play last night due to suspension. He is back tonight and will be particularly tough for the Sixers to handle without Embiid on the floor. This really sets up as an all-out rout in which the Nuggets can name the final margin and certainly I expect that margin to be at least a dozen! As I noted above, Philly is essentially conceding this game. Also, the Nuggets got swept by the 76ers last season so they'll keep their foot on the gas in this one. Denver is 17-8 ATS in home games this season. Philadelphia is 9-17 ATS this season after a game in which they scored 115 points or more. They were very fortunate to beat the Spurs Wednesday and now they get blasted here. 10* DENVER |
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01-26-19 | Kansas +6 v. Kentucky | Top | 63-71 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #705 Saturday 10* Top Play Kansas Jayhawks (+) @ Kentucky Wildcats @ 6 ET - I am always happy to back high-quality teams when they are undervalued because the betting markets have turned against them. Keep in mind the betting markets tend to have a short-term memory. That said, there is an anti-Kansas mindset right now because the Jayhawks have covered just 1 of 7 games since the calendar turned the page to 2019. However, Kansas is still a team that is 16-3 SU this season and two of those losses game by 4 points or less! Also, the Jayhawks have played a slightly tougher schedule than Kentucky. But right now it is the Wildcats that are getting the love from bettors not only because of an 8-4 ATS run but 3 straight covers. Again, the short-term memory! Now there is no disputing that Kentucky is a great team but lets not just hand this game to the Wildcats! Kansas has won the turnover battle by a combined 35-23 in their last two meetings. That has helped lead to the Jayhawks having 22 more shot attempts from the field in the last two games (both Kansas wins) in the last two meetings between these highly regarded basketball powerhouses. Kentucky is on a 9-15 ATS run in January games and they are over-priced here, in my opinion, because the Cats are on an ATS run while Kansas is on an overall ATS slide. The fact is, of course, the Jayhawks are highly talented and very well-coached. Of course they can rise up for a game like this and if they do fall short I expect it to only be by a bucket or two. Upset is very possible here! Kansas has failed to cover the spread in 3 straight games. That is the first time that has happened this season. It happened 3 times in the past two seasons and, every single time, the Jayhawks won and covered their very next game. Look for that to be the result this time as well. 10* KANSAS |
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01-26-19 | West Virginia v. Tennessee OVER 152 | 66-83 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Game #675 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Tennessee Volunteers vs West Virginia Mountaineers @ 4 ET - Of course the Mountaineers have a certain reputation for defense under coach Bob Huggins. However, West Virginia simply hasn't been the same team this season. Certainly it didn't help that they lost one of the nation's top defensive players, Sagaba Konate, to a knee injury. But, overall, their guard play on defense hasn't been there either this season. That is why the Mountaineers have allowed 85 points or more in 3 of their last 4 games. Also, West Virginia has allowed 5 of their last 6 opponents to shoot 47% or better from the field. I just don't see the Mountaineers slowing down the nation's #1 ranked team. The Volunteers are highly motivated after "learning their lesson" in nearly losing at Vanderbilt Wednesday. Now back home and with plenty of motivation to keep their foot on the gas and not suffer another scare, I look for a ton of points in this one. Tennessee is averaging 86.2 points per game this season but certainly their defense has slipped up a bit of late. The Vols have allowed 36% or better from three point land in 5 straight games. Also, the Volunteers have allowed overall 47% shooting from the field in their last 3 games. The over is 4-1 in the Vols last 5 games. The over is also 4-1 in the Mountaineers last 5 games. The over is also 4-1 in West Virginia's last 5 games against SEC opponents and the Mountaineers are 5-1 to the over long-term in games in which they are a road dog of 12.5 points or more. When off a win in SEC action Tennessee is 4-1 to the over this season. Also, the Volunteers are 4-1 to the over in a home game where the total is 150 to 154.5 points. 8* OVER the total in Tennessee |
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01-26-19 | Marquette v. Xavier +3 | 87-82 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 52 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #632 Saturday 8* Xavier Musketeers (+) vs Marquette Golden Eagles @ 2 ET - This is the type of classic situation that has worked very well for me through the years. Marquette is highly ranked and rolling and they are facing a Xavier team that has struggled in recent games and yet the Golden Eagles were as low as a 1 point favorite here when lines first came out. Of course that immediately got pushed higher and is as high as a -3 as of game day morning. I am on the other side of this one as per usual. Why? For one thing the Golden Eagles have played a very friendly schedule loaded with home games. Note that Marquette's two neutral site games saw them win by just 3 versus Louisville and lose by 9 to Kansas. In terms of true road games, the Golden Eagles have won at Georgetown and at Creighton but neither win was by more than 3 points. In their other 2 true road games they lost at St John's by 20 and at Indiana by 23. Yes that is the same Hoosiers team that looked like they didn't even belong on the same floor as Michigan in last night's home loss to the Wolverines. The point is I feel that Marquette has really not proved much of anything on the road this season and Xavier (after a tight loss to Providence Wednesday) is going to add to their solid 9-3 SU home record on the season. Naji Marshall is listed as a game-time decision for the Musketeers but I don't see him missing this game. The Musketeers have dominated this series when at home and that will prove to be the case again here. Don't be fooled by the line on this game. Upset time here but I'll grab the points as added insurance. 8* XAVIER |
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01-26-19 | Illinois v. Maryland OVER 144.5 | 78-67 | Win | 100 | 5 h 36 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #603 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Maryland Terrapins vs Illinois Illini @ Noon ET @ Madison Square Garden in New York, NY - This neutral-site game is part of the Big Ten's annual Super Saturday College Hoops and Hockey double-header. Though Maryland games have stayed under the total in 3 straight games, the Terrapins have faced some quality defenses to say the least. Prior to those 3 games, Terps games were on a perfect 7-0 run to the over. Also, the Illini are allowing 75.3 points per game this season which is dead last in the Big Ten. The most recent game for Illinois stayed under the total but that was versus defensive-minded Wisconsin. Prior to that one, Illini games were on a 3-0 run to the over. This total opened up as high as a 148 and is now down to as low as a 144.5 as of about 5 hours before tip-off. I am happy to grab the additional value here with the over as Maryland is looking for a break-out game and will run and gun after their 7 game win streak came to an end courtesy of a low-scoring loss at Michigan State. Of course the Illini are not the Spartans and the Terrapins bounce back big here. The Terps had averaged 77.3 points per game in their 9 games prior to scoring just 55 at Michigan State. The Illini loss versus Wisconsin saw Illinois score only 60 points which tied their lowest scoring output of the season. This is the type of situation today that will see both teams in full bounce back mode with an emphasis on quick baskets and getting their flow back on offense. The over is 6-2 this season when Illinois is off a Big Ten game. 8* OVER the total in Maryland (neutral site game) |
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01-25-19 | Butler v. Creighton OVER 153 | Top | 61-75 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #857 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Creighton Bluejays vs Butler Bulldogs @ 8:30 ET - The very first number that popped up offshore on this total was a 157 and it has since plummeted to as low as 152.5 in some spots. In typical contrarian fashion I am on the over here but it is, of course, not without reason. First off, Butler is 7-0 to the over this season in conference games. Secondly, Creighton is 3-0 to the over this season when playing with road loss revenge. The Bluejays lost at Butler earlier this month and that game was the 2nd straight in this series that flew over the total. Look for this one to make it 3 in a row. Creighton relies heavily on knocking down their 3-pointers and they are hitting 47.7% from beyond the arc in home games this season. Butler is also having a solid season from 3-point land as the Bulldogs are hitting 37.4% of their threes on the season. In fact, Butler has averaged better than 40% from three point land in their last 4 games and two of those games were on the road as well! Amazingly, the Bluejays have hit 40% or better from three point land in 9 of their 10 home games this season. The lone exception was against Ohio State and they still hit 36% against the Buckeyes! Creighton is loaded with shooters and they particularly like the "run and gun" approach when playing at home. Look for the over to improve to 10-5 this season in Bluejays games against teams with a winning record. Take advantage of the drop on this total from the opener. 10* OVER the total in Creighton |
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01-25-19 | Heat v. Cavs OVER 209.5 | Top | 100-94 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
Game of the Week Total - Rickenbach NBA Game #567 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Cavaliers vs Miami Heat @ 7:35 ET - The Heat are off back to back games where they were held under 100 points. The last 3 times that Miami has entered a game off back to back games where they scored 101 points or less, the Heat are a perfect 3-0 to the over in their next game. Facing a Cavaliers team that is a horrific 9-40 SU this season and allowing 114 points per game is certain to help Miami's offensive production get back on track. Keep in mind, the over is 2-0 this season Heat games versus the Cavs and Miami averaged 117.5 points in those two games. Also, prior to back to back unders for Miami in a pair of low-scoring losses, the Heat were on a 9-4 run to the over. Cleveland is on a 13-4 run to the over in their last 17 games. Also, the Heat are 8-4 to the over this season when off an upset loss as a favorite. Miami is also 13-8 to the over in their games against teams with a losing record this season. Cleveland is 8-2 to the over this season in Friday games. Also, the Cavaliers are a long-term 51-25 to the over when off a game in which they allowed 115 points or more. Look for Miami to get a big lead in this game and then coast to the win which means a very relaxed game without a lot of intense defense as this game progresses. That should lead to plenty of points and the Heat, off back to back losses, aren't going to slow down here even with a big lead. Take advantage of the low total posted on this one. Yesterday this total was high as a 211.5 when it first was coming up. It's dropped a bucket from there and was already a great value at that number. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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01-25-19 | Wizards v. Magic OVER 217.5 | 95-91 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #565 Friday 8* OVER the total in Orlando Magic vs Washington Wizards @ 7:05 ET - The Wizards are in a back to back after hosting the Warriors last night. Washington is 5-2 to the over this season in the second game of a back to back. Also, the Wizards are 7-2 to the over this season in divisional games. They're facing a Magic team that is on a 6-0 run to the over and that was off last night. That said, Orlando is likely to do plenty of "run and gun" in this game as they look to take advantage of a divisional foe that faced the World Champs last night. This should lead to a good pace in this game and I am expecting it to fly over the total. The Magic have been shooting the ball very well during this 6-game over streak. Solid and balanced scoring has also paced the Wizards during their current 9-2 ATS run their last 11 games (including covering vs Golden State last night). That said, both teams are "feeling it" right now and should remain hot in this one. The over is 15-8 this season in Wizards games in which they are an underdog. Also, the over is 7-2 in the last 9 Magic home games. More of the same expected here. 8* OVER the total in Orlando |
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01-25-19 | Michigan v. Indiana +4.5 | 69-46 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #852 Friday 8* Indiana Hoosiers (+) vs Michigan Wolverines @ 6:30 ET - I have said it before and I'll say it again...do you think the odds makers are stupid? The fact is the betting markets tend to jump on situations like this and this is when the true value is on the other side which is why I go contrarians. The Hoosiers enter this game on a 5-game losing streak. Also, the Wolverines have beaten Indiana 5 straight times and each of the last 4 victories have come by a double digit margin. That said, how can the odds maker open up with a -3.5 on Michigan in this one? Precisely! It is why I am on the Hoosiers as a dangerous home dog in this one. Keep in mind, the Wolverines have struggled particularly in their last 2 games and are on an overall 4-7 ATS run. Also, even though Indiana has lost 5 straight games, 4 of those were on the road. The Hoosiers are a very talented team but are quite young. Teams like this are much more dangerous on their home floor when their fans are behind them rather than when facing hostility on the road. Indiana lost their most recent home game but they were frustrated by the Nebraska defense. Prior to that defeat the Hoosiers were 10-0 SU at home this season. Also, Michigan's shooting has gone cold in the last two games. That is unlikely to suddenly cure itself on the road. The Wolverines are a long-term 15-24 ATS in road games with a posted total between 130 and 134.5 points. The Hoosiers are a long-term 15-9 ATS as a home dog in a range of 3.5 to 6 points. 8* INDIANA |
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01-24-19 | Warriors v. Wizards +10.5 | 126-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
TNT Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #558 Thursday 8* Washington Wizards (+) vs Golden State Warriors @ 8:05 ET - The Warriors have been playing great but this line is up to as high as a 10.5 after opening up at a 9 and Golden State has a much tougher game on deck (at Boston) next. Keep in mind, the Warriors very nearly ended up meeting the Celtics in last year's NBA Finals and Boston is still a threat again this year. Of course Washington is not perceived as a threat to go too far this year but, make no mistake about it, they are playing good basketball right now. That said, the Wizards confidence is growing with each win and that makes for a dangerous dog in a spot like this. That is especially true when a team is catching double digits like the Wizards are here. Note that Washington is 8-2 ATS (and 7-3 SU!) in their last 10 games. The Warriors, as hot as they've been SU, are still on a long-term unimpressive 7-9 ATS run. Golden State enters this game off B2B covers but they are 0-3 ATS the last 3 times they've entered a game on an ATS winning streak of 2 or more games. The Wizards are 5-1 ATS (and SU!) in a home game with a posted total of 230 or more points. 8* WASHINGTON |
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01-24-19 | Pelicans v. Thunder OVER 237 | Top | 116-122 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Game #559 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oklahoma City Thunder vs New Orleans Pelicans @ 8:05 ET - Anthony Davis is still out for the Pelicans. While the first two games he missed both resulted in unders I expect that trend to reverse here. Davis is one of the top defensive big men in the league and his absence will have the Thunder attacking the rim early and often in this one. Oklahoma City has been on a scoring tear and they love to play run and gun so I also don't expect too much of a concern from the Thunder in terms of paying attention to defense on the other end of the floor. In other words, this one results in a high-scoring shootout. The over is 5-2 this season when New Orleans is playing the 2nd game of a back to back. Also, the over is 7-1 in OKC's last 8 games overall. Though this total may seem too big, note that the Thunder are 10-3 to the over this season in games with a posted total of 220 points or more. Oklahoma City did lose at New Orleans last month so they are seeking revenge here and they are the healthier team (since Davis is out). That being the case, and catching the Pelicans in a back to back, I have no doubt that the Thunder will employ a game plan of running N.O. up and down the court all game long. Also, since it is a revenge game, OKC won't take their foot off the gas either and that means a ton of points scored in this one. Also, the Thunder have two off days on deck after this game so there is no holding back in this match-up. 10* OVER the total in Oklahoma City |
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01-24-19 | Michigan State -4.5 v. Iowa | 82-67 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #617 Thursday 8* Michigan State Spartans (-) @ Iowa Hawkeyes @ 7 ET - These teams have nearly equivalent records on the season but the Spartans have played a tougher schedule. The early movement has been toward the Hawkeyes here but I am going contrarian and laying the points with the road favorite. While it is true that this is a revenge game for Iowa and they are at home, it is also true that Michigan State is battle tested and has proven they are one of the top teams in the nation. Look for defense to be a key factor here as the Spartans allow only 36.6% from the field while the Hawkeyes are allowing 43.4% from the field this season. Iowa is 3-6 ATS this season in games with a posted total in the 150s. Also, the Hawkeyes are a long-term 1-7 ATS in home games with a posted total in a range of 155 to 159.5 points. The Spartans are on an 8-0 ATS run and also a perfect 8-0 SU and ATS this season in Big Ten games. Their roll continues on Thursday evening. After a lackluster 2nd half performance at home against Maryland on Monday, the Spartans drew the ire of their head coach and you can bank on them going hard for the full forty minutes in this one and that leads to a solid road rout. 8* MICHIGAN STATE |
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01-24-19 | Memphis v. Temple OVER 157.5 | Top | 76-85 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
Game of the Week total - Rickenbach CBB Game #609 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Temple Owls vs Memphis Tigers @ 7 ET - The very first total that popped up on this game yesterday afternoon was a 160 and not surprisingly the under starting getting hit and it has dropped as low as a 157.5 this morning. The fact is that this total may seem too big but Temple is at home and is going to get big points here but the problem is they are one of the worst teams in the AAC in a number of defensive categories. One they do excel in is steals which of course leads to a lot of transition points. However, a gambling mentality on defense (going for those steals) also can lead to open looks and easy scoring opportunities for the opposition when Temple fails to get the steal. Facing a Memphis team that is the top scoring team in the AAC means this game is going to be played with a great tempo for over players. The Tigers are averaging 84 points per game this season. The Owls are a 5 point favorite here. If Memphis hits their average and Temple wins by the margin the odds maker is suggesting you've got an 89-84 game that crushes the posted total by 15 points here. In other words, we've got some value here with this total in my opinion. The Tigers love to play up tempo basketball and the Owls will be happy to oblige on their home floor. Temple, prior to their 77-70 loss to Penn, had scored over 80 points in 4 of their last 6 home games. Memphis, other than neutral court games, has scored at least 76 points in every single game this season! That is another way to look at this total too. If the Tigers hit that mark of 76 (they've never failed to at home or in a true road game this season) and the Owls win by 5, you're already at 157 points here. Again, you can see why I am liking the value here in a game that many will perceive to have "too high" of a total. Memphis is 8-4 to the over this season in games against teams with a winning record. The Owls, since the calendar turned the page to 2019, have gone a perfect 6-0 to the over. Look for 7 straight here! 10* OVER the total in Temple |
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01-24-19 | Oakland v. IUPU-Indianapolis OVER 151.5 | 71-73 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 37 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #601 Thursday 8* OVER the total in IUPUI Jaguars vs Oakland Golden Grizzlies @ 11 AM ET - The Golden Grizzlies are allowing 81.6 ppg on the road this season. The Jaguars are scoring 86.2 ppg at home this season. Can we expect IUPUI might get to 84 points here based on those numbers? Yes. The current line on this game is right around a -3 for the Jags. Can we expect Oakland might put up 81? You bet! That's 165 points and that is well above the current total posted on this game. The point is that even if these teams fall short of expectations here in the scoring department, we've still got a great shot at cashing this. Both teams very content in looking for quick buckets and neither team's defense has been a strength this season. In other words a run and gun type game is quite likely in this one. The over is a long-term 46-26 in Jaguars home games and that includes 5-1 this season! The Golden Grizzlies last two road games stayed under the total but those games each totaled at least 150 points. In other words, they barely fell short and note that, prior to this, Oakland was on a 5-1 run to the over in their last 6 road games. You can why plenty of points are expected in this one. 8* OVER the total in IUPUI |
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01-23-19 | Spurs v. 76ers -4 | Top | 120-122 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #548 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs San Antonio Spurs @ 8:05 ET - The Sixers got blasted at San Antonio on December 17th when the Spurs caught Philly in the 2nd night of a back to back and, of course, away from home. This situation is much different now with the 76ers at home and having not had any back to backs recently plus not having any games on deck again until Saturday when a Western road swing begins. Philadelphia, in fact, will not be at home again for nearly two weeks to tonight they certainly want to "make this one count" and I foresee them getting payback at home. Finally Joel Embiid is not even listed on the injury report plus Jimmy Butler (wrist) was at practice yesterday. Ben Simmons (illness) was not but I don't see him missing this game with two full off days on deck after this. Look for the training staff to have Simmons ready to go here and it should be "all hands on deck" for Philly. Note that 76ers head coach Brett Brown and assistant coach Monty Williams both worked for the Spurs prior to coming to Philadelphia. Brown logged 11 seasons as an assistant coach under Popovich from 2002 to 2013. Williams not only played for the Spurs from 1996 to 1998, he also later served as vice president of basketball operations from 2016 to 2018 in San Antonio. The point is that there is plenty of incentive here for both the players and coaches to respond after that embarrassing loss in mid-December in SA. The Spurs enter this game on a 2-5 SU (and ATS) run. The Sixers are 28-11 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season. The 76ers also are 31-9 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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01-23-19 | Raptors v. Pacers OVER 218 | 106-110 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #537 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Indiana Pacers vs Toronto Raptors @ 7:05 ET - Kawhi Leonard is expected to rest tonight since the Raptors are in the 2nd game of a back to back. Leonard has multiple Defensive Player of the Year awards. Toronto is 6-3 to the over this season when playing the 2nd game of a back to back. The Raptors are also 7-3 to the over this season when they are an underdog. When Toronto enters a game having played each of their three prior games at home they are 3-0 to the over this season. Also, the Raptors are 13-4 to the over this season when they enter a game on a SU winning streak of three or more games. The Pacers have mostly trended under this season but that trend has started to turn around in recent weeks. Also, Indiana is 4-2 to the over this season when they enter a game with 2 or more days of rest. The Pacers are also 8-4 to the over this season when off a game in which they scored 115 points or more. Toronto has averaged 118 points per game their last 11 games. Indiana has averaged 117 points per game their last 12 games. The Raptors are 7-4 to the over during this stretch and the Pacers are 9-3 to the over during this stretch. More of the same in this one early Wednesday evening. 8* OVER the total in Indiana |
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01-23-19 | Tennessee -8.5 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 88-83 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #803 Wednesday 10* Top Play Tennessee Volunteers @ Vanderbilt Commodores @ 7 ET - Tennessee opened up favored by about a dozen points here. The line has dropped all the way down to as low as an 8.5 this morning as Vanderbilt is getting plenty of attention here as a home dog against their biggest rival and a foe that is currently the #1 team in the country! I also understand that the Commodores have defeated the Volunteers the last two times they have faced them in Nashville. Additionally, I am aware of the fact that the last time Tennessee rose to a #1 ranking their next game was at Vanderbilt and they lost! This was in 2018 but the Commodores were a #18 ranked team that season. This team is much weaker this season especially because their offense is having all sorts of issues without point guard Darius Garland (out for the season). Vandy is not shooting well at all and they are a young team that makes many mistakes. Conversely, Tennessee was on fire from the field before not shooting well in their tight win over the Crimson Tide Saturday. However, the Vols blew a 15 points lead against Alabama in that game so it is not as if it was a tight game all the way. Plus you saw that the Tide are a solid team after they thrashed a ranked Ole Miss team last night. After already having had their "scare" against the Crimson Tide and also being plenty wary of the Commodores, I look for the Volunteers to roll on the road in this one. The Vols are the much more experienced team and they are the much better team offensively. Vandy simply won't be able to keep up here. In terms of technical support, the Volunteers are 18-9 ATS in road games including a perfect 3-0 this season. Vanderbilt is 3-7 ATS this season in games against teams with a winning record and also a long-term 2-7 ATS when off a game in which they scored 60 points or less. 10* TENNESSEE |
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01-23-19 | Providence +3.5 v. Xavier | 64-62 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #781 Wednesday 8* Providence Friars (+) @ Xavier Musketeers @ 6:30 ET - Revenge has its spots in sports betting that is for sure. However, it tends to be one of the most over-played and over-used factors. That said, this appears to be one of those cases. Yes the Friars knocked the Musketeers out of the Big East Tournament last March. However, the fact is that Xavier is a bit down this season while Providence is arguably the better team this season. Yes I know the Friars have struggled of late but this is the perfect spot to "get healthy" with an upset win on the road and don't let the low line on the Musketeers fool you here. Xavier is just 2-3 SU in their last 5 games and one of those victories came by just a single point. Providence has faced a very tough schedule of late which has led to their 1-4 SU run. However, if not for the difference in 3-point shooting results in their game at Marquette Sunday, the Friars would have gotten the upset win. The fact is the Musketeers 3-point shooting has been awful and I look for Xavier to struggle badly in trying to stop Alpha Diallo and the Friars forward will be the best player on the floor in this game and lead the road team to victory. If they do fall short it will be by just a single possession in my opinion so grab the points in this one. 8* PROVIDENCE |
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01-22-19 | Blazers v. Thunder OVER 228 | Top | 114-123 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
NBA TV Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #531 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oklahoma City Thunder vs Portland Trail Blazers @ 8:05 ET - The Blazers are off a win at Utah last night that stayed under the total. Of course Jazz games are known for trending toward being lower scoring match-ups. However Portland was on a 5-1 run to the over entering last night's contest and I fully expect the high-scoring ways to resume at Oklahoma City tonight. Why? Because the Thunder certainly have been in run and gun mode for an extended stretch. With their big win at New York yesterday afternoon, OKC is on a 6-1 run to the over. Also, the Thunder are on a 13-6 run to the over this season as a home favorite. With this game played at a good pace and with some weary legs on defense considering this is a back to back spot, look for little resistance from the D for long stretches in this one. The recent over trending of both teams resumes in this one Tuesday. 10* OVER the total in Oklahoma City |
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01-22-19 | Villanova +1.5 v. Butler | 80-72 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
PA Insider - Rickenbach CBB Game #607 Tuesday 8* Villanova Wildcats (+) @ Butler Bulldogs @ 7 ET - The Wildcats have been relying heavily on a couple key players but that is where the scheduling situation here favors them. While Butler did have two days off leading into this game and has two days off after it, Villanova's scheduling situation is even better. They have been off for 3 days heading into this game and also have 4 full off days after this game. That means Wildcats coach Jay Wright has no limits with how much he plays his top guys in this one. Villanova is 12-2 SU in their last 14 games and the only two defeats came by just 3 points each. Suffice to say the Wildcats are a tough team to beat and I like having the dog in this match-up. Yes this is a revenge game for the Bulldogs considering Nova knocked them out of the Big East tourney last year. However, Villanova has lost their last two visits to Butler (including last season) and they are looking for road payback here. The Wildcats are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games away from home. Butler has won just 3 of its last 12 games SU versus the Cats. Look for the dog to prove they're still the team to beat in the Big East! 8* VILLANOVA |
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01-22-19 | Mississippi State v. Kentucky OVER 144.5 | Top | 55-76 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
Game of the Week total - Rickenbach CBB Game #603 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kentucky Wildcats vs Mississippi State Bulldogs @ 7 ET - Two very talented teams matched up here and they are loaded with balanced scoring. I don't see the Bulldogs as being able to slow down the Wildcats scorers at Kentucky. In fact the over is 5-0 in Mississippi State's last 5 road games at Kentucky. Though the Bulldogs won't be able to stop the Cats here, note that Mississippi State ranks 2nd in the SEC for number of 3-pointers made this season. Both of these teams have been lighting it up overall from the floor as well as from beyond the arc. Kentucky is averaging 80 points per game and the Bulldogs are averaging 79 points per game this season. Yes there will be some defensive intensity in this key SEC battle but note that this can also lead to turnovers and quick transition points and both of these teams have been lethal at making teams pay for mistakes. Overall, Mississippi State enters this game having gone 4-1 to the over in their last 5 games. Another key factor here is that the spread on this game has the Wildcats favored by about a half dozen points. This game is indeed likely to be quite close late and that means plenty of late fouls and trips the free throw line could result as the trailing team won't give up without a fight. Again, the ability of each team to knock down threes will also be key at that late stage in the game should we need "scramble points" like this in the final minutes. 10* OVER the total in Kentucky |
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01-21-19 | Rockets v. 76ers -5 | Top | 93-121 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
TNT Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #524 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Houston Rockets @ 8:05 ET - The 76ers are off a tough last-second loss to the Thunder on Saturday. Conversely, the Rockets are off an OT win and that was preceded by an OT loss. Look for Philly to take advantage of a Houston team that may not have a lot left in the tank after their big OT win over the Lakers Saturday. Additionally, the Sixers have been playing much better defense of late in comparison with the Rockets. Philadelphia has allowed just 41.5% from the field in their last 4 games. Houston has certainly been at the other end of the spectrum when it comes to defensive play in their last 3 games. The Rockets have allowed each of their last 3 opponents to shoot over 50% from the field! Also, Houston is still without Chris Paul and Clint Capela. As of early this morning Jimmy Butler is listed as questionable for the Sixers but it is with right wrist soreness and I expect he'll be upgraded to probable after this morning's shootaround. Also, 76ers big man Joel Embiid is probable with his continuing back issues. On that note, it has helped Philly that they haven't had any back to back situations recently and won't have one again until mid-February. The healthier team, the more rested team, the home team, and looking for revenge for losing last year's contest here versus the Rockets by a single point...all signs point to Philly getting a solid home win in this one. Houston is 1-6 ATS after a game in which they scored 130 points or more this season. The 76ers are 27-11 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season and also 30-9 ATSÂ versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season. All Sixers in this one! 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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01-21-19 | Nebraska v. Rutgers OVER 134.5 | Top | 69-76 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #857 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs Nebraska Cornhuskers @ 8 ET - I lost with Nebraska on Thursday when their much improved offense fell short against the stifling defense of Michigan State. After that result, I had a strong feeling I would be involved with the Cornhuskers again in their very next game and, sure enough, we've got great value here. The value in this one lies with the total. I know that this series with Rutgers has a recent history of staying under the total but Nebraska is going to have a breakout game on offense in this one but I am not about to lay a double digit spread on the road. This is one of those solid situations for an over as the road team is the superior team and highly motivated off a loss while the lesser team is at home where, as usual, most poor teams tend to score better. Rutgers will "get theirs" tonight but they're not going to be able to stop a Nebraska team that is averaging 77.7 points per game this season. Keep mind, the Scarlet Knights defense has not been as strong this season as it was last year and they're giving up a higher percentage on outside shots. The over is 3-0 this season when Nebraska is off a Big Ten loss. Prior to the Huskers ugly effort on offense versus the Spartans, they had shot 44% or better from the field in 12 straight games! The over was 5-1 this season in Rutgers Big Ten games before their low-scoring home loss to Northwestern. Including the loss to the Wildcats, the Scarlet Knights are allowing 75 points per game in Big Ten action this season. The Knights do shoot a little better when at home, the game versus Northwestern an exception, but they've also been getting lit up from beyond the arc and, overall, allowed 48% or higher from the field in 3 of their 4 games prior to the loss to the Wildcats. Look for the Huskers to get a big lead in this game and, because of being off a loss, they'll keep their foot on the gas but it is also natural to relax on defense with a big lead. The result should be a game that gets well into the 140s. 10* OVER the total in Rutgers |
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01-21-19 | Thunder v. Knicks +9.5 | 127-109 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 21 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #508 Monday 8* New York Knicks (+) vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 12:35 ET - The Thunder are off a dramatic last second win at Philadelphia Saturday. Also, Oklahoma City has a huge home game on deck tomorrow with division rival Portland. It would be very easy for OKC to look right past a 10-34 Knicks team and that will prove to be a mistake. New York has been playing better and has had 3 full days off since losing by just a single point to the Wizards in London. In fact, this will be just the 2nd game for the Knicks since the 13th. To say the least, they'll have the fresher legs in this match-up. Also, New York is on a 5-2 ATS run as they have been more competitive of late. Keep in mind, Oklahoma City was on a 1-5 SU and ATS run prior to the late win over the 76ers Saturday. Also, the home team is a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS in the last 3 meetings between these teams. Grab the big points with the home dog in this one. 8* NEW YORK |
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01-20-19 | Suns v. Wolves OVER 227 | Top | 114-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #503 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Timberwolves vs Phoenix Suns @ 7:05 ET - The Timberwolves are playing this game with revenge and that is a situation that has seen the over go 15-7 this season. The Suns are in a tough back to back spot as they were at Charlotte yesterday where they got crushed and allowed 135 points. This is nothing new as it has been a miserable season for Phoenix and they've allowed 121 points per game in their last 6 road games. The Wolves need a huge win to bounce back after back to back losses and with the Suns putting up little resistance, Minnesota can essentially name the score here. It will be a high-scoring win (likely by double digits as you can see with the big line posted on this game) for the Wolves in a run and gun type game. The over is 14-2 in the Timberwolves last 16 games and I expect another one here. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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01-20-19 | Florida State v. Boston College OVER 147 | Top | 82-87 | Win | 100 | 4 h 41 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #817 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston College Eagles vs Florida State Seminoles @ Noon ET - The over is a perfect 3-0 in the last 3 meetings between these teams. I also like having the lesser team, Boston College, at home in a situation like this. The Eagles should be able to score well since they're on their home floor but they have very little chance of slowing down the Seminoles in this one. That's because Boston College is a weak team defensively and Florida State enters this game off a loss and looking for a breakout game offensively. The Noles have faced tough match-ups recently at Pittsburgh, versus Duke, and at Virginia. Now the Seminoles can take advantage of facing a weaker foe with weaker defense. The over is 4-1 in Boston College's last 5 games. Also, the Eagles are 12-3 to the over when they enter game on a losing streak of 3 or more games. Overall, BC is on a long-term run of 25-10 to the over in home games. Florida State found it tough to score this season in only 3 games: at Pittsburgh, at Virginia, and on a neutral floor versus Villanova. In their other 14 games this season the Seminoles have averaged 82 points per game this season. They are a 7 point favorite. In other words if FSU scores like they normally do and the odds makers is right about the spread you have yourself an 82-75 type game which means this one should fly over by double digits. I'll take it. 10* OVER the total in Boston College |
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01-19-19 | Virginia v. Duke OVER 136.5 | Top | 70-72 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
ESPN Total of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #601 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Duke Blue Devils vs Virginia Cavaliers @ 6 ET - Once again the odds makers made a HUGE mistake, right? You guys know how I feel about the odds makers. Tremendous respect for the quality numbers they put out on games. That said, the last two meetings between these teams totaled just 120 points and 128 points. Yet, even though the Blue Devils also lost point guard Tre Jones to injury in their most recent game, this total opened up at a 140! The odds makers really screwed up, right? Hardly! The fact is people don't fully think about such things and Jones, even as described by his head coach, is a "defensive catalyst". On the flip side, in terms of offensive production, Duke is expected to have Cam Reddish back for this game and of course the Blue Devils are loaded with great offensive production including freshmen RJ Barrett (23.4 ppg) and Zion Williamson (21.2 ppg) - the two leading scorers in the ACC. Well aware of the Cavaliers defensive prowess but the Blue Devils have still averaged 64 points per game in their last two games against Virginia. Also, playing with home loss revenge from last season and arguably as dynamic as their offense has been this season, I look for the Blue Devils to get into the 70s in this one and Virginia will be right there with them! The Cavs are undefeated this season thanks, in part, to an offense that has averaged 74 points per game thus far. Look for the over to improve to 3-1 in Virginia's ACC games this season. The Blue Devils are 13-6 to the over when off a game in which they allowed 80 points or more. 10* OVER the total in Duke |
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01-19-19 | Thunder v. 76ers -2 | Top | 117-115 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #568 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 3:35 ET - The Sixers Joel Embiid is again on the injury report here as he continues to deal with a sore back. However, he got better in the 2nd half of Philadelphia's dominating win at Indiana on Thursday. The fact is I really don't see Embiid missing much time again until back to back type situations crop up again for Philly and that is not until mid-February. He should be ready to go here and, either way, I like the small number we're getting on the 76ers in this one as they are on their floor and hosting a Thunder team that is stuck in a slump. Oklahoma City has lost 5 of its last 6 games. Conversely, Philadelphia has won 7 of its last 9 games. Also, the Sixers defense has kicked into high gear in its last 3 games. As for OKC, their defense has been atrocious over their last 4 games. Additionally, the Thunder are a long-term 3-10 ATS after a game in which they allowed 130 points or more. This season Oklahoma City is 1-5 ATS after a loss by a double digit margin. The Sixers are a long-term 69-40 ATS in home games. Additionally, when past the midway point of a season and facing a team that allows 106 points or more per game, Philly is 27-10 ATS. When past the midway point of a season and facing a team that scores 106 points or more per game, the 76ers are 30-8 ATS. Look for a home rout in this day game Saturday. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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01-19-19 | Indiana v. Purdue OVER 143 | 55-70 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 38 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Game #633 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Purdue Boilermakers vs Indiana Hoosiers @ 2 ET - The over is a perfect 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these teams at Purdue. Also, the Boilermakers are averaging 83 points in home games this season and are loaded with confidence right now after their most recent road game (OT win at Wisconsin) was followed by a dominating home win over Rutgers. That is how young players grow in confidence and the shots really start falling well when teams are "in the zone" like Purdue is right now. They are on fire but they're facing a very talented rival in the form of Indiana on Saturday afternoon and I expect a shootout here. The Boilermakers certainly aren't known for defense as a strength and they catch the Hoosiers off a frustrating loss at Nebraska where they were stifled by the Cornhuskers zone defense. Now Indiana will "cut loose" against a Purdue team that is certainly more than willing to run and gun and, as noted above, a shootout results and for the 5th straight time in Hoosiers games at Purdue, an over results. The Boilermakers are off the aforementioned dominating win over the Scarlet Knights but the over is 15-8 when Purdue is off a game in which they allowed 60 points or less and that includes 3 of 4 having gone over this season! Overall, when the Boilermakers are a favorite they are 8-3 to the over their last 11 games. More of the same here. 8* OVER the total in Purdue |
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01-18-19 | Heat +2 v. Pistons | Top | 93-98 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #557 Friday 10* Top Play Miami Heat (+) @ Detroit Pistons @ 7:05 ET - The Heat just got blasted by 38 points on Tuesday at Milwaukee. The Pistons are off a dramatic overtime win versus the Magic on Wednesday. Set ups simply don't get much better than this. Miami is angry and ready to bounce back and all the stuff you're reading about guys saying stuff complaining about playing time will be turned into positive aggressive energy in this game. When you get embarrassed like the Heat players did on Tuesday against the Bucks, you respond! Also, the Pistons are only 2 games over .500 at home this season. It is not a huge edge for Detroit to be at home. Additionally, the Heat have been a better team on the road than at home this season and do have a winning record away from Miami. The Pistons were 3-10 SU in their 13 games prior to the OT win over the Magic. The Heat were 10-4 SU in their 14 games prior to getting blasted by the Bucks. Also, Miami is 6-1 ATS when playing with 2 days rest this season and also a superb 14-6 ATS as an underdog this season. The Pistons are 14-24 ATS (including 5-8 ATS this season) when off a game in which they allowed 115 points or more. The Heat are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 games between these teams and that streak adds another W on Friday! 10* MIAMIÂ |
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01-18-19 | Maryland +3 v. Ohio State | Top | 75-61 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #851 Friday 10* Top Play Maryland Terrapins (+) @ Ohio State Buckeyes @ 6:30 ET - This is a match-up of two teams going opposite directions and that means it is not going to be easy for the Buckeyes to turn things around. The Terrapins have been down big early in games and still found a way to win. Maryland has also had huge leads in games and then blown it in the 2nd half and still found a way to win. That is how a young team builds character and this Terps team is proving they are the real deal. They are 15-3 on the season and the 3 losses ALL came by 5 points or less. In other words there is no way to look at this match-up other than the fact that Maryland will, worst case scenario, be a threat to cover in the final minutes. However, I foresee them actually winning this game outright rather handily. The Buckeyes are struggling to find the right floor combinations with their players and the result has been ugly and confidence is now shaken after 3 straight losses. Granted Ohio State faced some tough competition but Maryland has also played just as tough of a schedule this season. Additionally, the "kicker" for me with this play is that the Terrapins got blasted by 22 points in last season's meeting. How did that happen? The Buckeyes outscored the Terps by 27 points from three point land because they made a ridiculous 58.6% of their three pointers. Of course had that not happened Ohio State loses the game by 5 points. You can see where I am going with this and the point is the Buckeyes are so discombobulated right now they truly are not functioning well enough to have some huge shooting game here. They are a mess. Ohio State is on an 0-3 SU run and 0-4 ATS run. Maryland has won 6 straight games SU. The Terrapins are set to improve to 5-0 ATS in road games this season while the Buckeyes shooting woes are unlikely to improve after a long layoff. From a technical standpoint that factor is also supported by this: Ohio State is 0-6 ATS when they enter a game with 5 or 6 days of rest between games. The road dog is barking loudly in this one and Coach Mark Turgeon gets revenge after his Terps were embarrassed here in Columbus by the Buckeyes and Coach Chris Holtmann in his first year with Ohio State last season. Payback time and the set up and current momentum of these teams make it an ideal situation. 10* MARYLAND |
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01-17-19 | Michigan State v. Nebraska +2.5 | Top | 70-64 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #634 Thursday 10* Top Play Nebraska Cornhuskers (+) vs Michigan State Spartans @ 8 ET - When the betting masses have the opportunity to take one of the top ranked teams in the nation at nearly a pick'em price against an unranked foe, they tend to jump all over it. In typical contrarian fashion, I am on the other side in a situation like this and taking advantage of the extra value offered by the line move in a spot like this. One of the big keys here is that Michigan State is still without guard Joshua Langord and another key player, guard Kyle Ahrens may be out again for this game or, at the very least, limited. That said the Cornhuskers are likely to hold a key edge in the backcourt in this match-up as they have big guards and have a size edge over the Spartans. This is especially true given the current injury situation in the Michigan State backcourt. In terms of some technical value here: the Spartans, versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games, have gone 5-8 ATS the past two seasons. The Huskers, versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games, have gone 8-2 ATS the past 2+ seasons. The Cornhuskers have won 20 straight games at home and Michigan State is facing the tough task of trying to win back to back road games and are now facing the stingiest D (60.8 ppg) in the Big Ten other than Michigan. Look for the home dog to get the upset in this one. 10* NEBRASKA |
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01-17-19 | 76ers +3 v. Pacers | Top | 120-96 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
TNT Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #543 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Indiana Pacers @ 7:05 ET - Early movement was on Indiana here as the Pacers (15-5 SU in home games) opened up as only a 2.5 points favorite over a 76ers team that is 10-12 SU in road games this season. It's easy, right folks? Ladies and gentlemen, it is never easy in this business and this is precisely the type of situation I look for. Looks like easy money on the small home favorite an you know what usually happens when something looks easy in this business! The fact is that the 76ers are playing with a ton of confidence right now and are also seeking revenge for a home loss versus the Pacers last month. That game in fact marked the 3rd straight time in this series that the road team has won and covered. Look for that streak to make it 4-0 here! The Sixers are an incredible 29-8 ATS when, in the 2nd half of a season, they're facing a team that averages 106 points or more per game. Philly is also 33-16 ATS when playing with home loss revenge. The Pacers are just 2-5 ATS their last 7 games. Also, Indiana is an ugly 1-4 ATS when off a game in which they scored 130 points or more. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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01-17-19 | Knicks v. Wizards UNDER 228 | 100-101 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #542 Thursday 8* UNDER the total in Washington Wizards vs New York Knicks @ 3:05 ET at O2 Arena in London, England - This total has gone from as low as a 225 to as high as a 228 and is now offering great value with the under. If you look at the history of NBA regular season games played overseas, you rarely see any games getting into totals this lofty. Keep in mind the players have been involved in lengthy travel, sightseeing, etc and are now playing in an unfamiliar arena and in an unfamiliar setting. It is not the type of situation that will tend to bring out the best in shooting ability. That said, I am well aware of the fact that the Wizards have been scorching the nets of late with hot shooting but, the point is, that is unlikely to continue today. Also, the Knicks are without one of their top scorers Enes Kanter and the Wizards are inching closer toward being a legitimate threat at sneaking into the playoff picture. The point is that Washington is not opposed to playing a little defense as they are seeing how important each victory is becoming. New York has averaged only 103.6 points per game their last 13 games. So lets say the odds makers are correct and Wizards win this game by 7. That means you're looking at a 111 to 104 type came here which is still under the posted total on this game by double digits. I just don't see this game getting to the lofty total that has been set when you consider all factors on this one. Also, each of the last 3 meetings between these teams have stayed under the total. Washington has stayed under the total in 3 of 4 this season when off a game in which they scored 130 points or more. The Knicks have stayed under the total in 6 of 9 this season when off a divisional game. 8* UNDER |
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01-16-19 | Magic +3.5 v. Pistons | Top | 115-120 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #525 Wednesday 10* Top Play Orlando Magic (+) @ Detroit Pistons @ 7:05 ET - Now that we are past the midway point of the season teams are certainly already beginning to look at the playoff picture. That said, both these teams are just outside the top 8 in the Eastern Conference and this game carries plenty of extra meaning as a result. This situation favors the Magic. We're able to get a handful of points with Orlando and they were at home and have had two days off and are playing with plenty of confidence after beating the Rockets and Celtics in their last two games. Conversely, the Pistons are playing their first game back East after a long road trip out west and Detroit has had only one day off between games. From a technical standpoint, note that the Pistons are a poor 4-9 SU and ATS when off a non-conference game. The Magic are 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS this season when off a game in which they scored 115 points or more. The road dog stays hot in this one and, should they fall short, look for it to be by just a bucket. 10* ORLANDO |
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01-16-19 | Iowa v. Penn State OVER 140 | Top | 89-82 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
Game of the Month Total - Rickenbach CBB Game #801 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Penn State Nittany Lions vs Iowa Hawkeyes @ 7 ET - We're getting line value here for a couple of key reasons. One is that the Hawkeyes Tyler Cook is likely a game-time decision and he leads the team in points and rebounds. I expect him to play but, even if he doesn't, Ryan Kriener has been playing much more recently and has now averaged double figures in 3 of his last 4 games. Iowa is averaging 81.7 points per game this season and has plenty of firepower. The other reason we've seen the posted total on this game drop (and another reason we're getting line value) is because the Nittany Lions have been in a scoring slump in Big Ten play. For one thing their games have included Michigan, Wisconsin and Michigan State. Those are 3 of the tougher defenses to face in the conference. Certainly Iowa does not fit into that category and note that Penn State coach Pat Chambers even said he wants to play fast and he wants to see his team scoring 70+ points per game like it often did last season. Considering that fact as well as this game being at home and facing another team that also doesn't mind playing fast, I am expecting plenty of points in this one. The over is 3-0 when Iowa's line ranges from pick to +3 and also the over is 9-3 when the Hawkeyes line ranges from pick to -3. You can see we're in that sweet spot here and the over is also on a 16-6 run in Iowa's January games. The over is 11-6 when Penn State, in game 15 or later in a season, is facing a team that averages 77 points or more per game. Also, the Nittany Lions Wednesday games are 10-4 to the over. 10* OVER in Penn State |
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01-15-19 | Wolves v. 76ers -6 | Top | 107-149 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #514 Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Minnesota Timberwolves @ 7:05 ET - The 76ers Jimmy Butler is facing his former team and Philly will take advantage of a Timberwolves team that is hurting. Minnesota will be, at the very least, hobbled in this one but could also be short-handed. The problem is a cluster injury situation as both injuries are at the point guard position. Starting PG Jeff Teague and veteran PG Derrick Rose are both listed as questionable for this game with ankle injuries. Keep in mind that the Wolves are an ugly 6-15 SU on the road this season while Philadelphia is a stellar 18-4 SU in home game this season. That said, a Sixers home victory is quite likely but what about the all-important spread factor? It should get there for us! 16 of Minny's last 20 losses have come by a margin of at least a half dozen points! Also, note that Minnesota is 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in road games with a posted total of 230 points or more. The 76ers are off a tight win at New York but are 8-2 SU and ATS when off a divisional game this season. Also, the Sixers are a long-term 22-11 SU (and 21-12 ATS) in home games with a posted total of 220 points or more. Look for a home blowout here! 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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01-15-19 | Seton Hall +2 v. Providence | Top | 63-72 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB #601 Tuesday 10* Top Play Seton Hall Pirates (+) @ Providence Friars @ 6:30 ET - This line opened up at a pick'em and it is also a revenge game for the Friars. That said, it comes as no surprise that bettors jumped on Providence at home and the line is now up to a -2 on the Friars. I am happy to grab the extra value with another contrarian play. The key here is that Providence has had trouble with their shooting and that is why they sorely miss freshman phenom (and 2nd leading scorer) AJ Reeves. The Friars have now lost 3 straight games and are coming off a heart-breaking double-OT loss at Georgetown. Of course those types of defeats are very tough to bounce back from. Also, Providence is starting to develop a "losers mentality" as that is what happens when you lose 3 straight tight games in conference action and you're missing one of your best players. Seton Hall will pounce on this and be very aggressive and take advantage tonight. Keep in mind, the Pirates have thrived in situations like this. Seton Hall is a perfect 6-0 ATS in games with a line ranging from pick'em to +3 and all 6 wins were outright upsets! As for the Friars, they've gone 4-8 ATS when off a game in which they allowed 80 points or more. That includes Providence going 1-3 ATS this season when in that situation. The teams are roughly equivalent on the defensive end but the Pirates hold the edge on the offensive end as the Friars continue to struggle with consistency on the offensive end as they continue to adjust to life without Reeves. He will be back but not yet! Seton Hall is off a loss and they haven't lost back to back games since mid-November. By the way, the Pirates last 4 losses have come by average margin of just 3 points. The points could come in handy here but I fully expect an outright win as the Pirates bounce back off a defeat. 10* SETON HALL |
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01-14-19 | Celtics -4.5 v. Nets | Top | 102-109 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
Early Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Monday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics (-) @ Brooklyn Nets @ 7:35 ET - The Celtics have a big game at home with Toronto on deck for Wednesday. However, there is no way they're looking past this game. That's because this is the finale of a 3-game road trip that has seen Boston go winless so far. The Celtics are hungry for a win and the Nets should provide the perfect punching bag for Boston to take out their frustrations after back to back losses at Miami and Orlando. The Celtics are 6-2 ATS in road games with a posted total of 220 points or more. The Nets enter this game having won 4 of their last 6 games. However, Brooklyn is 6-12 ATS after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games. Also, the Nets are just 4-7 ATS this season when off a road loss and they just got smashed at Toronto Friday. Also, Brooklyn has a long history of struggles versus the Celtics and the Nets are on a long losing streak versus Boston. If Kyrie Irving (questionable) does not play tonight, Terry Dozier will get the start and he has played better as a starter compared to when coming off the bench. Either way the Celtics are a much more stacked team in comparison with the Nets. Brooklyn has lost 13 of 19 games this season when facing a team with a winning record. Celtics respond big off back to back losses here. 10* BOSTON |
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01-14-19 | Nebraska +3 v. Indiana | Top | 66-51 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #865 Monday 10* Top Play Nebraska Cornhuskers (+) @ Indiana Hoosiers @ 6:30 ET - The very first lines that popped up on this game offshore Sunday afternoon had Hoosiers -1 and, not surprisingly, the betting masses jumped on Indiana at home and this line is now up to as high as a -3 as of early Monday morning. Of course I am contrarian and grabbing the road dog here. This game was priced this way originally with good reason as the Cornhuskers are the better team. I am well aware of the fact that the Hoosiers have been strong at home and the Huskers have had some struggles on the road. However, this is not going to go on forever and Nebraska is going to make a statement in this game. The Cornhuskers have beaten the Hoosiers in each of the last two meetings. Also, Nebraska is 15-8 ATSÂ as a road underdog or pick in recent seasons. The Huskers did win at Oklahoma State and Clemson and lost by just 2 points at Maryland. Indiana has been strong at home this season but, keep in mind, the Hoosiers won by just 2 points versus Northwestern and only 1 point versus Louisville. Indiana is 7-3 SU in their last 10 games but 4 of those 7 wins have come by 3 or less points. Again, there is value with having the dog here in an game in which Nebraska (preseason projections just behind Michigan State and Michigan in the Big Ten) has a great shot at the upset. The Hoosiers are just 4-8 ATS in recent seasons in games versus good defensive teams (allowing 64 points or less per game). 10* NEBRASKA |
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01-13-19 | Michigan State v. Penn State +8.5 | Top | 71-56 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #836 Sunday 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions (+) vs Michigan State Spartans @ 4:30 ET - The Nittany Lions are a much better team than their record shows. That said, there is great home dog value here with Penn State. After getting blown out by Wisconsin, PSU responded with a strong effort at Nebraska. Keep in mind, the Lions have been very competitive in nearly all their defeats this season except for the Badgers game. That said, though the Spartans have continue to play great even with Joshua Langford out, this is going to be a hard-fought game Sunday. The Nittany Lions are desperate for a Big Ten win and the home crowd will be ready for hosting one of the top teams in the nation. Will be a great atmosphere for Penn State to excel and they are well-coached under Patrick Chambers. Also note that Langord's back-up, junior Kyle Ahrens, is also dealing with an injury right now. The Spartans have been great at the betting window this season but went just 6-12 ATS in road games the prior two seasons and they are over-priced here. The Nittany Lions are 11-5 ATSÂ versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games in a season. Technical and situational value here with the home dog. 10* PENN STATE |
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01-13-19 | Bucks v. Hawks OVER 230.5 | Top | 133-114 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #583 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Hawks vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 3:35 ET - Once again the Bucks Giannis Antetokounmpo is listed as probable for this game and, hopefully, unlike Friday that will not change before game time and burn me. But either way, I look for the Bucks (Greek Freak or not) to have their foot firmly on the gas from the opening tip all the way to the final horn in this one. Milwaukee is off a loss at Washington and will take advantage of facing one of the worst teams in the league here. Of course that is why they are a double digit favorite but I don't like laying double digits on the road in the NBA and also feel Atlanta (off a big road win) will be able to stay hot and put up plenty of points in this one as they are back on their home floor. Of course at first glance this total looked a little on the high side when it opened up. This has caused the markets to move it down some and in typical contrarian fashion I am taking advantage of the additional value on the high side of this one. The fact is that the odds makers set this total big for a reason and I concur because the Bucks are going to push the tempo all game long and look to put a white-washing on the Hawks. The over is 26-15 when Milwaukee is off an upset loss as a favorite. The over is 13-8 in Bucks Sunday games. The over is a long-term 29-17 in Hawks games against Central Division opponents. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta |
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01-13-19 | Raptors -6.5 v. Wizards | 140-138 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #583 Sunday 8* Toronto Raptors (-) @ Washington Wizards @ 1:05 ET - On Thursday I lost my play going again the Wizards with the Bucks for two reasons. One big one was that Giannis Antetokounmpo went from being probable for that game to being out. Tough break for us. But even with him missing the game, Washington only won that game because they made a ridiculous 54.5% of their threes as they knocked down 18 of 33. The Wizards outscored Milwaukee by 15 points from beyond the arc and that was the difference in the win and in the cover. I'll get payback here because Washington can't keep shooting like this. They have not done this all season long and they now face a Raptors team that is playing what is just one of two games they have between the 8th and 16th. In other words, Toronto will be fully focused here and is also well-rested. That is bad news for a Wizards team that has been playing "over their heads" of late and is set to come back down to earth today. Washington, courtesy of winning 5 of their last 7 games, has the full attention of the Raptors. With Toronto being the best team in the East this season, I expect nothing less than a road rout here. The Raptors are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games against the Wizards. Washington is only 7-12 ATS in games against teams with winning record this season. 8* TORONTO |
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01-13-19 | Villanova v. Creighton OVER 149.5 | 90-78 | Win | 100 | 4 h 1 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #831 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Creighton Bluejays vs Villanova Wildcats @ Noon ET - As per usual, the Bluejays are known for their three point shooting ability and that has been particularly evident when on their home floor. Creighton is making nearly 50% of their three pointers on their home floor. That said, the Bluejays also again are known for lack of defense. If this game was at Villanova I wouldn't like the total as much because Creighton sometimes struggles with their shooting away from home. But with the Bluejays as the host I expect Creighton to score plenty here. The issue for them will be stopping the Wildcats and that is why I foresee this game flying over the total. Both meetings between these teams went over the total last season and Villanova is a long-term 20-7 in road games with a posted total between 145 and 149.5 points. In road games this season the Wildcats are 3-1 to the over. The Bluejays are 4-1 to the over this season when off a game in which they allowed 80 or more points. More of the same expected here! 8* OVER the total in Creighton |
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01-12-19 | Pistons v. Clippers -7 | Top | 109-104 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #564 Saturday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Clippers (-) vs Detroit Pistons @ 3:35 ET - The Clippers are off a blowout loss at Denver but previously were on an 8-2 ATS run. Now facing the slumping Pistons at home should allow the Clippers to get right back on track. Detroit did win at Los Angeles last season so the Clips also have some extra motivation but truly they don't even need that extra incentive considering they are off the bad loss to the Nuggets. The Pistons enter this game on a 2-9 SU and ATS run and they've allowed each of their last 3 opponents to shoot better than 51% from the field. In fact the composite of those three games was a field goal allowance rate of 54% for Detroit. Of course that kind of defense is not going to get the job done and that is particularly true when the opponent (in this case the Clippers) has held their last two opponents at home to 40% or less from the floor. Detroit is 2-9 ATS when off a non-conference game. Los Angeles is a superb 17-6 ATS this season as a favorite. Also, the Clippers are 11-3 ATS this season in home games with a posted total of 220 points or more. The Clips take advantage of facing a struggling foe and this is something they've been doing all season long. LA is 12-3 SU (and 11-4 ATS) this season in games against teams with a losing record. Another home rout is in the offing here. 10* LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS |
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01-12-19 | Drexel +4 v. NC-Wilmington | Top | 83-97 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 46 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #649 Saturday 10* Top Play Drexel Dragons (+) @ NC-Wilmington Seahawks @ 2 ET - This line is going to look a little "off" to those that don't follow college hoops very closely. I say that because the Seahawks have hammered the Dragons by a double digit margin in each of the last two meetings at NC-Wilmington. That said, many may feel it is a mistake that the Seahawks are priced so low here on their home floor but there is much more than meets the eye here. First off Drexel has enough size and bulk in the middle to help counter the Seahawks top weapon Davontae Cacock. Additionally, the Dragons just welcomed back point guard Kurk Lee. He was one of their top players last season and in addition to returning starters Alihan Demir and senior guard Troy Harper, Drexel has seen others step up while Lee has been out. Trevor John, Camren Wynter, and James Butler are combining to contribute 33 points per game. That said, Lee and Demir and Harper are all guys that can contribute 15 points a night. The Dragons are still flying "under the radar" right now but are truly the better team in this match-up as the Seahawks have been "on the fade" this season. In terms of technical support, the Dragons are 6-2 ATS in games with a posted total in the 160s. Also, Drexel has gone 3-1 SU and ATS this season in games against teams with a losing record. NC-Wilmington is 2-5 ATS in home games with a posted total in the 160s. Also, the Seahawks are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games against teams that allow 77 points or more per game. In a game projected to be a shootout, you can see why the situation favors the road dog. 10* DREXEL |
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01-12-19 | Ole Miss +6 v. Mississippi State | 81-77 | Win | 100 | 4 h 14 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #623 Saturday 8* Ole Miss Rebels (+) @ Mississippi State Bulldogs @ 1 ET - Winning changes everything. Ole Miss brought in Kermit Davis as their new head coach for this season but the Rebels (off a 12-20 season including 5-13 in SEC action) were still projected to be the worst team in the SEC this season. Of course off a bad year change was needed at Ole Miss and thanks to constant winning and returning a number of key players from last season's team has completely rejuvenated this program. That said, the Rebels certainly are going to be more than ready for this match-up with rival Mississippi State as the Bulldogs are ranked and of course it is not as if Ole Miss needed any additional motivation. These teams are fierce rivals and Ole Miss had held the upper hand in recent meetings but Mississippi State crushed them by 17 in their most recent meeting here. That said, payback is on order and, while it will be tough for the Rebels to win outright over the Bulldogs on the road, it is also is tough not to imagine this game being very tight and decided by just a bucket or two. Ole Miss enters this game on a red hot winning streak, SU and ATS. In terms of technical support for this play the Rebels are 13-1 ATS this season. Also, Ole Miss is 13-5 ATS long-term in a road game where the total is 150 to 154.5 points. The Rebels are also on a 13-6 ATS run in January games. The Bulldogs defense has not been at the level of the Rebels and Mississippi State has allowed more than 80 points in 3 of their last 4 games. To put that in proper perspective, note that Ole Miss has allowed 74 points or less in 12 of their 14 games this season! Look for the Bulldogs to drop to 0-3 ATS on the season when they are off a game in which they allowed 80 points or more. 10* OLE MISS |
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01-11-19 | Bucks -6.5 v. Wizards | Top | 106-113 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #545 Friday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (-) @ Washington Wizards @ 7:05 ET - The Bucks are a red hot 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games and they're certainly not going to slow down here. Being on the road is helping Milwaukee to stay focused and up next is a game at Atlanta so certainly there is no lookahead here. The Bucks also have extra motivation because the Wizards won the most recent meeting and that game was on Milwaukee's home floor. In fact, road dominance has been the theme in recent meetings between these foes as the away team is a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS and I'll gladly take advantage of the extra line value here since the typical "home factor" is factored into this line even though there has been no home court edge in recent meetings between these teams. The Wizards are off a ridiculously strong shooting performance against the Sixers in their most recent game. Off that huge upset win they'll fall flat here and the Bucks have too much talent and will pull away big as this game goes on and win it by double digits. Milwaukee is 6-2 SU and ATS in Friday night games this season. Washington is 0-9 SU (and 1-8 ATS) in Friday night games this season. Also, the Wizards are 1-5 SU and ATS this season against Central Division opponents. Last but not least, Washington is a poor 1-4 ATS this season when off an upset win as an underdog. 10* MILWAUKEE |
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01-11-19 | Wright State v. Northern Kentucky -5.5 | Top | 64-68 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #804 Northern Kentucky Norse (-) vs Wright State Raiders @ 7 ET - This is the only home game for the Norse between December 30th and January 24th. There is no doubt that Northern Kentucky wants to take advantage of this opportunity and who better to welcome to town than Wright State. The Norse have big-time revenge on their minds here as they won the regular season title in the Horizon League last season but they lost both games against the Raiders. They want payback here and I like the added line value here with this line dropping as of early game day morning. We can lay a rather small number to have the better defense and the home team in this match-up. Northern Kentucky has held opponents to 39.6% from the field this season while Wright State has allowed 46.3% from the field so far this season. Keep in mind, this is even with playing very similar early season schedules. Also, from 3-point land the Norse are allowing just 28.7% while the Raiders are allowing 39.5% from beyond the arc! Wright State is 1-5 SU (and 2-4 ATS) in road games this season. The Norse are 30-4 SU (and 23-11 ATS) in games the past 2+ seasons against teams with a losing record. 10* NORTHERN KENTUCKY |
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01-10-19 | Celtics -125 v. Heat | Top | 99-115 | Loss | -125 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
TNT Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #537 Thursday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics (-) @ Miami Heat @ 7:05 ET - The Celtics are such a small favorite here (-2) as of early game day morning, I would recommend playing the money line for those of you that have access to it. Even though this is a back to back spot for Boston, any concern about that is mitigated by the fact that last night's home win versus Miami was a blowout victory that allowed guys plenty of rest. There was not a single Celtic that played more than 29 minutes and most played 24 minutes or less. Since the calendar turned the page to 2019, Boston appears refocused and rejuvenated. With last night's win over the Pacers, the Celtics are a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in the new year and I fully expect their run to continue tonight. The Heat are on an 0-3 ATS run and we have a big coaching edge here with Boston's Brad Stevens over Miami's Erick Spoelstra. The Celtics, surprisingly, have suffered a tight loss in each of their last two games against the Heat - once in Boston and once in Miami. That said, payback is on order here! The Celtics are on a 21-9 SU run (and 19-11 ATS) in January games. Keep in mind too, the Atlantic Division is much stronger than the Southeast Division. The Heat are a 19-28 SU against Atlantic Division opponents while the Celtics are 33-16 SU against Southeast Division opponents. That includes Miami 2-4 SU this season and Boston 4-2 SU this season respectively. In a game where it is basically a matter of "pick the winner" with no spread involved I am grabbing the surging Celtics as the Heat drop to 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games while road team stays perfect in the New Year! 10* BOSTON |
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01-10-19 | Cincinnati v. Tulsa +6 | Top | 70-65 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #612 Thursday 10* Top Play Tulsa Golden Hurricane (+) vs Cincinnati Bearcats @ 7 ET - Home court means a lot in this match-up. More on that in a moment but first off the motivation factor. Two years ago the Golden Hurricane got crushed by the Bearcats in the AAC Tourney by a score of 80-61. As a result, the rematch last season at Cincinnati was a revenge game for Tulsa and the Golden Hurricane did play very well in that game and actually led at the half. However, the Bearcats ultimately prevailed by an 8 point margin but that was thanks to an absolutely insane shooting performance from 3-point land. Cincy made 15 of 22 (68.3%) three-pointers! Of course that is not happening again this season and this time the teams are meeting at Tulsa. I like the fact that the Golden Hurricane returned some key cogs from last season's team plus are getting some key contributions from unexpected sources so far this season. They have looked stronger than expected early this season and the Golden Hurricane are 9-0 SU in home games! The Bearcats are 0-3 ATS in true road games this season and 2 of of those were outright losses. I am expecting another one here but am grabbing the points with Tulsa as added insurance. Long-term Cincinnati is on a 1-4 ATS run in road games with a total in a range between 130 and 134.5 points. The Golden Hurricane are 3-1 ATS as home dog in a range of 3.5 to 6 points and all 3 wins were outright upsets! This will be a hard-fought battle where having the points is truly invaluable. The Golden Hurricane want this game badly and have the talent to get it on their home floor. If they fall short, I expect it to be by the slimmest of the margins and that means we still cash our ticket! 10* TULSA |
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01-09-19 | Bucks -116 v. Rockets | Top | 116-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #523 Wednesday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (-) @ Houston Rockets @ 8:05 ET - First off just want to mention this line, as of very early Wednesday morning, currently has the Bucks as a 1 to 1.5 point favorite. However for as low as nickel more (-115 price range) you can play Milwaukee on the money line just to get the SU win which is certainly what I would recommend doing for those of you with access to it. The Rockets are in a flat spot here as Houston just knocked off the Western Conference leading Nuggets on Monday. They did that thanks to hitting a ridiculous 22 of 47 three-pointers. Denver actually won the battle of the boards in that game and had 17 more shots from the field for the game but Houston simply hit a ridiculously high percentage of threes. That is unlikely to be repeated and, keep in mind, this is a Rockets backcourt that is still without Chris Paul and Eric Gordon. The hungry Bucks (lost both games versus Houston last season) will take advantage for the big road win. Both these teams give up a lot of points but note that Milwaukee is 21-8 SU this season against teams that allow 106 points or more per game. The Rockets are only 14-14 SU this season with that same parameter. Why expect Houston's shooting to go flat here? They are 4-8 ATS this season after a game in which they scored 115 points or more. The Bucks are 26-8 SU in games with a posted total of 220 points or more this season. 10* MILWAUKEE |
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01-09-19 | Houston v. Temple +1.5 | Top | 69-73 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #788 Wednesday 10* Top Play Temple Owls (+) vs Houston Cougars @ 7 ET - As long-time followers know I love to go contrarian and if you looked up contrarian in a sports betting dictionary that included an example, this game would be the perfect example. The Cougars are 15-0 this season and ranked. So the odds makers opened this game at very nearly a "pick'em" even though Houston still has not lost a game this season. Now, do you really think the odds makers are stupid? Of course they are not! They know, just as well as sharps like me know, this is a great spot for the Cougars to lose their first game. So while the masses are likely to back Houston as "they can't lose...they're undefeated, etc" the sharp money (including mine) is on the Owls. Why Temple? First off a road trip to Philly is NOT easy for Houston but certainly they made it look easy last year when EVERYTHING went their way and NOTHING went Temple's way in a blowout win by 21 points in February. The Owls haven't forgotten that home beatdown. Additionally, though Temple is "only" 11-3 this season while Houston is a sparkling 15-0, the Owls have played a much tougher early season schedule. That pays off BIG in this game and the home court helps key the win! The Cougars are 2-0 SU in road games this season but went just 12-10 SU away from home the past two seasons. The Owls are a solid 21-11 SU in lined home games the past 2+ seasons and that includes 5-0 SU this season. Give me a highly motivated home dog that is eager to give a conference foe the first blemish on their record this season. 10* TEMPLE |
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01-09-19 | Vanderbilt +2.5 v. Georgia | 63-82 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #781 Wednesday 8* Vanderbilt Commodores (+) @ Georgia Bulldogs @ 6:30 ET - This is a revenge game for the Commodores as they were knocked out of the SEC Tournament by the Bulldogs in March. Georgia enters this game after getting absolutely demolished by Tennessee. To say the Bulldogs confidence is shaken now heading into conference action is a major understatement after they failed their first test by a mile. While the Commodores are also off an SEC loss, it was a much more respectable one and certainly they might even have been peeking ahead at this revenge opportunity. Also, Vandy does have Kentucky on deck so they that to avoid a likely 0-3 start to SEC action, a win at Georgia Wednesday is critical as certainly knocking off the Wildcats is highly unlikely. This is one of those early season situations I love in conference action as Georgia is 9-4 ATS this season while Vanderbilt is 5-8 ATS this season. As a result there is some extra value baked into this line because of non-conference performance at the betting window when the reality is that the Bulldogs were projected to be one of the worst teams in the SEC this season. The Commodores are 4-2 SU and ATS when their line ranges from a pick'em to +3 in a road game. The Bulldogs drop to 2-5 ATS this season in games with a posted total in the 140s. Look for a road upset in this one but grab the points for added insurance. 8* VANDERBILT |
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01-08-19 | Nuggets +1.5 v. Heat | Top | 103-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Tuesday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (+) @ Miami Heat @ 7:35 ET - Last night the Nuggets saw the Rockets hit a ridiculously high percentage of their 3-points as Houston went 22 of 47 from downtown while Denver only made 7 of 29 from beyond the arc. That said, the team with the best record in the Western Conference went down in flames despite outrebounding the Rockets by double digits and despite having 17 more field goal attempts in the game. When you get outscored by 45 from three point land it is hard to win. Suffice to say that is not happening again tonight and I fully expect the Nuggets to bounce right back. The Nuggets were 16-4 SU in their 20 games prior to last night's loss by a dozen points. Denver now visits a Miami team that is only 3-3 SU their last 6 games and has covered only 2 of the 6 games. The Heat play in the weaker Eastern Conference and the particularly weak Southeast Division. Miami is 0-4 SU and ATS in Tuesday games this season. The Nuggets are 4-1 SU in Tuesday games this season and tonight they will improve to 5-2 SU and ATS in games against Southeast Division opponents. 10* DENVER |
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01-08-19 | St. John's v. Villanova -5.5 | Top | 71-76 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #626 Tuesday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats (-) vs St John's Red Storm @ 7 ET - The Red Storm are off to a great start this season and are ranked. However, they are now in the wrong place at the wrong time. Keep in mind, St John's (14-1) has played a much weaker schedule than Villanova (11-4) so far this season. Also, the Wildcats (accustomed to being the top team in the Big East) are now unranked while the Red Storm are ranked! Give credit to St John's for their strong start to this season for sure. However, Villanova not only is more battle-tested (long-term and this season due to tougher schedule), the Wildcats also have big-time revenge here. Last season in February Villanova lost at home to St John's as a 16 point home favorite. Suffice to say payback is on their minds here. The Red Storm simply had a great shooting night and also caught the Cats in a situation where they were back on the heels. Tuesday you can back on Nova being the team that is putting their opponent back on their heels! The Red Storm have gone just 14-23 ATS (including 2-5 ATS this season) in games with a posted total in the 140s and they simply won't be able to keep up with the revenge-minded Wildcats in this one. Villanova improves to 8-4 SU and ATS in games against teams with a winning record this season. Also, the Wildcats are a long-term 35-8 SU and 29-14 ATS in games against teams that average 77 points or more per game. 10* VILLANOVA |
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01-07-19 | Spurs -3 v. Pistons | Top | 119-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #575 Monday 10* Top Play San Antonio Spurs (-) @ Detroit Pistons @ 7:05 ET - The Spurs are surging and have won 4 straight games and 12 of their last 15. In terms of their ATS run it is even better as San Antonio is 13-2 ATS their last 15 games. The Pistons are certainly going the opposite direction as they are 4-13 SU since December 2nd. Also, Detroit enters this game on a 2-7 ATS run. That said, the Pistons aren't just losing they're also failing to cover and there is no questioning the Spurs motivation here. They were held to just 79 points in a loss at Detroit last season. As for the Pistons, they've been having trouble with slow starts in games but then fixed that by surging ahead early and leading Utah by 18 points in their most recent game. However, thanks to turnovers and overall poor play (a recurring them for Detroit), they blew the lead and lost to the Jazz. The fact is that the Pistons are a fragile team right now and facing a Spurs team that is firing on all cylinders certainly isn't going to help matters. Take advantage of the small line here and the lay the short number with SA on the road in this one. San Antonio is 4-1 SU and ATS this season after playing each of their 3 prior games at home. Look for the Spurs to improve to 10-5 ATS this season when off a win by a double digit margin. The Pistons drop to 2-7 ATS on the season when off a non-conference game as Detroit's 10-20 SU run in January games adds another loss to the ledger. Spurs get payback for ugly loss here last year. 10* SAN ANTONIO |
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01-06-19 | Pacers +3 v. Raptors | Top | 105-121 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
NBA TV Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #571 Sunday 10* Top Play Indiana Pacers (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 7:35 ET - This is a tough scheduling spot for the Raptors. They are off a revenge win at Milwaukee last night and now had to travel back home to face a revenge-minded Pacers team. Not only is Indiana the more rested team, they've won 6 straight games since a 3-point loss at Toronto on December 19th. The Pacers have now lost 4 straight to the Raptors so they are amped up about this revenge opportunity Sunday. Overall it is a 13-2 SU run for Indiana and their two losses came by a total of just 4 points! Great value with the road dog in this spot. Toronto is just 3-7 ATS against Central Division teams this season and 1-4 ATS in Sunday games. Indiana is 6-2 SU and ATS against Atlantic Division teams. Also, the Pacers are a fantastic 23-9 SU and 24-8 ATS in Sunday games. Here they catch the Raptors still celebrating that huge win over the Bucks last night. 10* INDIANA |
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01-06-19 | Memphis +9 v. Houston | Top | 77-90 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #823 Sunday 10* Top Play Memphis Tigers (+) @ Houston Cougars @ 6 ET - Long-time followers know I love seeking spots like this. The Cougars are a ranked team and undefeated while the Tigers are only 9-5 on the season and on the road here catching only single digits. Many will back an undefeated team in a spot like this but there are important keys as to why the Tigers are going to be a "tough out" for the Cougars. First off, Memphis has played a tougher schedule than Houston this season. Also, a key to winning on the road when the conference schedule rolls around is having a veteran team and being battle tested. The Tigers fit the bill in both regards. They returned their top four scorers from last season and all are now seniors. Additionally there is tremendous positive energy with this program as they brought in former NBA star Penny Hardaway at head coach and brought in a new influx of playing talent this season that already has led to some key contributions from new sources for Memphis. The Tigers losses this season have included LSU, Tennessee, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech. That is not exactly a slate of cupcakes and those experiences will serve the Tigers well in their first key conference battle of the new season. Note that Memphis is already 6-3 ATS this season in games against teams with a winning record. The Cougars do play great defense but the Tigers have the veteran skilled players to break down a defense like this. In fact, Memphis is 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS in their last 3 meetings with Houston and the lone loss came by just a single point. The Cougars are NOT shooting the ball well at ll this season and it will tough for them to build a significant margin here against a senior-laded Tigers team viewing this game as one of their BIGGEST of the season. 10* MEMPHIS |
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01-05-19 | Raptors +5.5 v. Bucks | Top | 123-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
NBA TV Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #553 Saturday 10* Top Play Toronto Raptors (+) @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 8:35 ET - The Raptors embarrassed the hell out of me at San Antonio on Thursday but sometimes in this business one can be dead wrong and that was the case with me when Toronto faced the Spurs. However, the Raptors look like a live dog in this spot. Yes I am aware of the continuing Kyle Lowry injury situation. However, the Raptors have now lost 3 straight against the Bucks, including both meetings this season, and it is absolutely payback time here. Milwaukee is in a back to back spot here and has gone 2-4 ATS in Saturday games this season. Also, the Bucks are a poor 1-5 ATS (and SU!) the last 6 times they were off a game in which they scored 130 or more points. The Raptors are 4-1 SU this season in Saturday games. Toronto is 3-1 SU when off a loss by a double digit margin. Also, the Raptors are 6-3 SU when playing with revenge this season but that includes not faring well against the Bucks this season. In other words, payback time here in a big way and I like having the points in a game the Raptors are bound and determined to win and do have a rest edge. 10* TORONTO |
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01-05-19 | Kansas State +12 v. Texas Tech | Top | 57-63 | Win | 100 | 4 h 35 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Game #645 Saturday 10* Top Play Kansas State Wildcats (+) @ Texas Tech Red Raiders @ 2 ET - I am well aware of the fact that the Wildcats, already without Dean Wade, have another senior (Kamau Stokes) listed as doubtful for this game. However, this is a horrible scheduling spot for the Red Raiders and a huge situational edge for Kansas State. While the Wildcats are off an embarrassing loss at Texas, the Red Raiders enter this game off a hard-fought road win at West Virginia. Also, Texas Tech has a huge game with Oklahoma on deck. In other words this is truly a sandwich game and flat spot for the Red Raiders. Additionally, the Wildcats have revenge on their mind as they were blown out by Texas Tech in both games last season. I like the talent on this Kansas State team and, right now, the Red Raiders continue to be over-valued. As a result, we can get a dozen points with the Wildcats in a game that is projected to be very low-scoring (posted total opened up in the 115 range!). With points at a premium in this one and the hungry and motivated defense ready to turn up the heat on defense, this game will be much closer than many are expecting. By the way, Texas Tech is on a 6-12 ATS run in January games. The Wildcats are a long-term 4-1 ATS in games with a posted total of 119.5 points or less. Give me the big dog in this one. 10* KANSAS STATE |
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01-04-19 | Wizards +7 v. Heat | Top | 109-115 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #531 Friday 10* Top Play Washington Wizards (+) @ Miami Heat @ 8:05 ET - We're getting to the point in the season where you're going to see trends start to reverse. The NBA season is almost at it's mid-point and this is the time of the season where it is a good idea to take a look at teams that have under-achieved at the betting window but that are playing better of late. I especially like to look for those teams when they're facing a team that has over-achieved at the betting window and also when I can have my team as a sizable underdog. That is the case here because, as of 7:30 AM ET, the Wizards are available as high as a +7 in some big shops. Washington is a poor 13-25 ATS on the season but enters this game off back to back wins and covers and there is a different feeling in the Wizards locker room as they head into this match-up against a divisional foe. The Heat are on a ridiculous 15-4 ATS run which you know can't continue. Miami is just not that strong of a team and the absence of Goran Dragic is going to catch up with them. The Heat are 2-2 SU their last 4 games and I expect another SU loss here but, of course, am grabbing the generous points being offered. The Wizards are 5-3 SU and ATS in divisional games this season while Miami is a poor 2-7 SU and ATS in divisional games on the season. Washington is already adjusting to life without John Wall plus remember they've only had Trevor Ariza for the past 8 games and he has already had games with highs of 24 in points, 9 in assists, and 8 in rebounds. He is a key contributor that will be a difference maker tonight. The Wizards are playing scrappy and hungry basketball right now and that is the kind of dog (with plenty of fight) you want on your side. 10* WASHINGTON |
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