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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-14-19 | Thunder v. Pacers OVER 219 | Top | 106-108 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #561 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 7:05 ET - The Thunder are off a win versus Brooklyn yesterday that stayed well under the total as I know all too well. I won't hesitate to come right back with the over today. Oklahoma City had a horrific start on the offensive end yesterday and that set the tone for the entire game. Now on the road and in a back to back spot, the Thunder know they can ill afford another slow start. I look for OKC to hit the floor running in this one and we should see a good pace throughout. Oklahoma City is 16-6 to the over this season when coming off a non-conference game. I am well aware of the fact that, like the Thunder, the Pacers have been trending under of late. However, the Pacers have scored an average of 125 points per game in their last 4 home games versus teams from the Western Conference. The over went 3-1 in those 4 games. Indiana, going further back, is 6-2 to the over the last 8 times the Pacers have been a host in non-conference action. More of the same expected here. 10* OVER the total in Indiana |
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03-14-19 | St. Joe's -119 v. Duquesne | Top | 92-86 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
Atlantic 10 #1 Top Game - Rickenbach CBB Game #693 Thursday 10* Top Play St Joseph's Hawks (-) vs Duquesne Dukes @ 6 ET - This is another one that many view as an odd line. The Hawks opened up as the favorite here even though St Joseph's is 5 games over .500 while the Dukes are 7 games over the .500 mark on the season! Must be some kind of huge mistake by the oddsmakers, right? Of course that is not the case and the fact is that we've got great value here with the small line on a St Joseph's team that has played a tougher schedule in comparison with Duquesne this season. Also, the Hawks have revenge for a 1 point road loss to the Dukes two months ago. Duquesne has allowed opponents to shoot 49% or better in 4 of their last 6 games. St Joseph's has held their last 4 opponents to a combined shooting percentage under 40% from the field. The Hawks went 11-5 SU this season as a favorite. Also, St Joseph's is a long-term 20-13 ATS when off a loss in conference action including 4-1 ATS their last 5. The Dukes are on a 2-5 SU and ATS run in games played on a neutral court. Long-term Duquesne is an awful 22-42 ATS and 16-51 SU in games played in the month of March. 10* ST JOSEPH'S |
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03-14-19 | Creighton v. Xavier +2.5 | 61-63 | Win | 100 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #684 Thursday 8* Xavier Musketeers (+) vs Creighton Bluejays @ 2:30 ET - The earliest line on this game yesterday was a -1 on Creighton. The Bluejays have since risen to as high as a 3-point favorite in this one. I'll gladly fade this move. Both these teams enter on hot streaks but this is another match-up where I like the difference in terms of recent play on defense. Xavier is 6-1 SU and ATS their last 7 games and the Musketeers have allowed approximately 40% from the field in those 7 games. Creighton enters this game on a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS run their last 5 games but the Bluejays have allowed approximately 45% from the field in their last 6 games. Another key to the value here is that the Musketeers Naji Marshall has been upgraded to probable for this game. The Bluejays are playing this game with road loss revenge but that is a situation that has seen Creighton go 1-5 SU and ATS this season! The Musketeers are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these teams. That stretch includes a SU loss but ATS cover in the 2017 Big East tournament and now Xavier gets their shot at tourney revenge. I fully expect them to take advantage of it. 8* XAVIER |
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03-13-19 | Nets v. Thunder OVER 230 | Top | 96-108 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
TV Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #553 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oklahoma City Thunder vs Brooklyn Nets @ 7:05 ET - I looked like a fool with my play on the over in Brooklyn on Monday but I don't know if I have ever seen something like this in my life! The Nets gave up just 75 points even though they allowed the Pistons 97 field goal attempts! Detroit simply was horrific with their shooting as they made just 27.8% of their shots from the field! Truly unreal and also noteworthy here as the over is a perfect 4-0 the last 4 times the Nets were off a game in which they allowed 75 points or less. Brooklyn's pace has certainly been conducive to overs of late even though overs have not been cashing in. The Nets have allowed an average of 101 field goal attempts in their past two games and 97.2 FG attempts their last 11 games! The Thunder certainly have no qualms about getting into high-scoring shootouts with teams but, like the Nets, they are off of a bit of an unusual game. They played the defensive-minded Jazz and Utah and Oklahoma City both failed to reach the century mark in that game. The over is 18-9 in Brooklyn's last 27 games against Northwest Division opponents. The over is 13-7 in Oklahoma City's home games with a posted total of 220 points or more this season. The over is 4-1 the last 5 times the Thunder were off a game in which they held their opponent under 100 points. 10* OVER the total in Oklahoma City |
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03-13-19 | Wyoming v. New Mexico OVER 145.5 | Top | 68-78 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #635 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New Mexico Lobos vs Wyoming Cowboys @ 4:30 ET - These teams just met at Wyoming on Saturday and the game totaled 169 points. The Lobos totaled 81 points and the amazing aspect of that is that New Mexico had 7 players that played 17 minutes or more in the game and 4 of the 7 combined to make just 9 of their 35 field goal attempts. Even with poor shooting from 4 guys whom each had at least 7 field goal attempts, New Mexico still put up 81 points on the scoreboard. Both the Lobos and Cowboys are two of the worst teams defensively in the Mountain West in terms of points allowed. Also, Wyoming has built up confidence (particularly on the offensive end) based on recent performances. The Cowboys have won back to back games for the first time this season and Wyoming has averaged scoring 80.3 points per game their last 3 games. On the season the Lobos have averaged 76 points per game so I expect plenty of points in this one. New Mexico has averaged 92 points per game in their last 4 meetings with Wyoming. The Cowboys have scored 75 points or more in 3 of last 4 meetings with Lobos. Also, in the last 3 meetings NOT played at New Mexico (either at Wyoming or at neutral site) the Cowboys have averaged scoring 92.3 points per game! The over is 3-0 in Wyoming's last 3 games overall. The over is 4-1 this season in Lobos games with a posted total of 148 or less. This one falls into that category and after opening as high as a 147 has dropped to as low as a 145.5 as of early this morning. That is a value add I won't pass up. 10* OVER the total in New Mexico |
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03-13-19 | Miami-FL +7.5 v. Virginia Tech | 56-71 | Loss | -104 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #623 Wednesday 8* Miami Hurricanes (+) vs Virginia Tech Hokies @ 2:30 ET - Of course the Hokies have the advantage of being rested while the Hurricanes are in a back to back spot after beating Wake Forest yesterday. However, lets not forget the impact of Justin Robinson's foot injury for the Hokies. The Virginia Tech senior guard, prior to his injury, scored 17 points in just 19 minutes in the first meeting with Miami. He has been out since then and, prior to their season finale (also against Miami), the Hokies had won just 5 of 9 games with the 4 most recent of those victories all coming by a single digit margin. Yes, I know the Hokies beat the Canes by a double digit margin in the season finale but that game was at Virginia Tech and the Hurricanes went just 6 of 29 from beyond the arc while the Hokies knocked down 14 of 26 threes. Of course that means that Virginia Tech had 24 more points (in a 14 point win!) from 3-point land even though they took 3 less shots. The fact is that the Hokies are the better 3-point shooting team BUT they are not that much better! Virginia Tech simply was extra hot in their two wins over the Canes this season. However, the Hurricanes have now shot the ball quite well from beyond the arc in 6 of their last 9 games. Also, Miami had defended the 3-ball quite well in 7 of 9 games prior to the Hokies big effort against them last week. I also like the fact that the Hurricanes are 13-4 ATS this season when playing with road loss revenge. Virginia Tech is just 1-4 ATS in Wednesday games this season. Also, the Hokies are 3-8 ATS this season when off a win in conference action. 8* MIAMI |
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03-12-19 | Cavs v. 76ers OVER 221.5 | Top | 99-106 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Game #535 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Philadelphia 76ers vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7:05 ET - The Cavs are off a big upset win over the Raptors last night. Don't be surprised if they are a little flat on the defensive end tonight. The 76ers are rested after a big win over Indiana Sunday. In that game the Sixers really turned the heat up on defense in the 2nd half to eventually pull away and win by double digits. As they now face one of the worst teams in the NBA and also have 2 more off days on deck after this. I would not be surprised to see Philly lacking in defensive intensity tonight as well. The last 3 meetings between these teams all went over the total and they averaged 242.7 points per game. As you would expect with that type of average, all 3 games flew over the total! The Cavaliers enter this game on a 7-3 run to the over. Cleveland is 11-5 to the over this season in games against Atlantic Division opponents. As a home favorite of 12.5 points or more, the 76ers are 3-1 to the over this season. The Sixers have averaged scoring 124 points per game in their last 3 games against the Cavs. The Cavaliers have scored an average of 121.3 points per game in their last 3 visits to the City of Brotherly Love. Look for more of the same in this one as it crushes the posted total. 10* OVER the total in Philadelphia |
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03-12-19 | Notre Dame -122 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 78-71 | Win | 100 | 5 h 28 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #603 Tuesday 10* Top Play Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-) vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ 2:30 ET in ACC Tournament at Spectrum Center in Charlotte, NC - This line opened up at a -2.5 on Notre Dame even though the Fighting Irish went just 3-15 in ACC action while the Yellow Jackets finished the ACC regular season campaign with a 6-12 mark. Of course this means the odds makers made an egregious mistake, right? That is what the betting markets would lead you to believe as they drove the line down to as low as a -1 and the money line (best play here in my opinion) fell down to the -120 range. In typical contrarian fashion I am against the move here. Keep in mind, Notre Dame only split with Georgia Tech this season but the Irish had 13 more field goal attempts than the Jackets in the road match-up and 10 more in the home match-up. The reasons for the advantage in attempts were edges in rebounding and in turnovers. I look for those areas to continue to be factors here and the Fighting Irish will take advantage of their additional scoring opportunities to advance in the ACC tourney. The Irish went 11-3 SU this season as a favorite. In the past 2+ seasons the Fighting Irish are 21-3 SU when facing a team with a losing record. The Yellow Jackets are playing with road loss revenge here but that is a situation that has seen them go 1-8 SU this season! Georgia Tech is also 1-5 SU in their last 6 games on a neutral court. 10* NOTRE DAME |
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03-12-19 | Wake Forest v. Miami-FL -6.5 | 71-79 | Win | 100 | 4 h 31 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #602 Tuesday 8* Miami Hurricanes (-) vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons @ Noon ET in ACC Tournament at Spectrum Center in Charlotte, NC - This line has gone from 7.5 to 6.5 as many are finding it hard to trust the Hurricanes in this price range. However, they become a little easier to trust when you consider that Wake Forest is on a 4-14 SU run and one of those four wins was when they hosted Miami. The Canes have road loss revenge here and that is a situation that has seen Miami go 12-4 ATS in recent seasons! Also, 12 of the aforementioned 14 Demon Deacons losses have come by a margin of 8 or more points! The Hurricanes are off a loss by a double digit margin at Virginia Tech but Miami entered that game on a 6-3 ATS run. Also, 11 of the Canes 13 wins this season have come by a margin of 7 or more points. Wake Forest is a long-term 8-21 SU (and 9-20 ATS) in conference tournament games and I look for those trends to resume here as they get bounced in the first round. 8* MIAMI |
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03-11-19 | Pistons v. Nets OVER 221 | Top | 75-103 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 59 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Brooklyn Nets vs Detroit Pistons @ 7:35 ET - The Nets have stayed under the total in 4 straight games. However, Brooklyn has scored an average of 118 points per game their last 3 games. But, as a result of the under streak, the posted total on this one already dropped from an opener of 222.5 down to a 221 overnight heading into Monday. The Pistons come into this game off an under but, prior to that, the over was 9-1 in Detroit's last 10 games! Also, the over is 10-5 this season in Pistons games against Atlantic Division opponents. Detroit has averaged scoring 121 points per game in its last 4 games. The over in Nets game improves to 14-8 the last 22 times they've entered a game on an under streak of 3 more consecutive games. Both teams have been scoring very well and that continues here. 10* OVER the total in Brooklyn |
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03-11-19 | Western Michigan v. Central Michigan -9.5 | Top | 67-81 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #870 Monday 10* Top Play Central Michigan Chippewas (-) vs Western Michigan Broncos @ 7 ET - Central Michigan just played at Western Michigan Friday. Though the game was decided by a 7 point margin, the Chippewas led the game by 15 points at the half. Keep in mind, this followed a 21 point beating that the Chips put on the Broncos when they hosted them in early February. Now, in conference tournament action, the Chippewas again are the host and another beating is likely here. Central Michigan is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a losing record. Also, the Chips are 11-4 ATS this season when off a game in which they scored 80 or more points. This line dropped from an early opener of 11 down to a 9.5 as of overnight heading into Monday. Western Michigan, versus teams that average 77 points or more, has gone 2-8 ATS this season. The Broncos are a long-term 7-14 ATS in first round tournament games. Western Michigan also is a poor 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games played in the month of March. All signs point to a home blowout here. I normally don't lay big points but the edges here are too strong. Keep in mind the Chippewas won the turnover battle 20-8 when these teams met here last month! 10* CENTRAL MICHIGANÂ |
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03-10-19 | Pacers v. 76ers -5.5 | Top | 89-106 | Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Game #506 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Indiana Pacers @ 3:35 ET - It looks like Joel Embiid will be back for this game. Even though the Sixers got blown out by the Rockets in their most recent game they truly were done in by poor shooting. If they had just shot "normal" Philly would have won the game outright. Instead it was a blowout loss but that helps with the line value here actually. The 76ers are a very manageable favorite against a Pacers team that they blew out by 24 in the most recent meetings at Indiana. The Pacers are on a poor 3-11 ATS run in their last 14 road games. The Sixers are very hungry for a win here and will be rejuvenated by the expected return of Embiid and the fact this game is at home. Philly is off back to back losses and they are a perfect 4-0 SU when off B2B straight-up losses this season. Indeed, the 76ers have not lost 3 straight games this entire season and I don't expect that to change here. Indiana is playing this game with home loss revenge but that is a situation that has seen them go 2-5 ATS this season. The Sixers are 36-18 ATS (including 9-3 ATS this season) when off a loss by a double digit margin. Also, Philly is 74-46 ATS long-term in home games. Look for a blowout by the host in this one with a winning margin by double digits expected. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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03-10-19 | Connecticut v. East Carolina OVER 141.5 | Top | 82-73 | Win | 100 | 6 h 0 m | Show |
The Total of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Game #839 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in East Carolina Pirates vs Connecticut Huskies @ 2 ET - Two of the worst teams in the American Athletic Conference matched up in this season finale. Allowing too many points has been a big part of the problem for both teams. The Huskies tend to forget their defense at home when they have hit the road this season! Connecticut held the Shockers to 65 points at Wichita State in their most recent road game but previously had allowed 77 points per game in their 4 prior road games. The Huskies gave up at least 73 points in all 4 of those road games. As for East Carolina, they've allowed 72 points or more in 7 straight games. In those 7 games, the Pirates have allowed an average of 81.6 points per game. Look for both teams to play very loose in this season finale. Certainly the Pirates are the lesser of the two teams but East Carolina's games had gone over the total in 4 straight games prior to their ugly loss at Wichita State. In those 4 games the Pirates averaged scoring 75.3 points per game. Look for both teams to get into the 70s in this one as it flies over the total. On the season Connecticut is allowing 78 points per game when on the road. The Pirates are allowing 74 points on the season in all their games. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in East Carolina |
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03-10-19 | Houston v. Cincinnati -2 | 85-69 | Loss | -106 | 3 h 25 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #836 Sunday 8* Cincinnati Bearcats (-) vs Houston Cougars @ Noon ET - The Cougars already celebrated their big home win over SMU Thursday as that clinched them at least a share of the American Athletic Conference regular season title and #1 seed in the upcoming conference tournament. I expect Cincinnati to prove to be the hungrier team here as they can tie Houston for the regular season conference title by notching a win here. The Cougars cut the nets down at the Fertitta Center after their win over the Mustangs Thursday. The Bearcats are seeking revenge for a loss at Houston last month. Look for home court to be a huge difference-maker here. Cincinnati is 16-1 SU at home this season. The line on this game is only a -2 on the Bearcats. The fact that Houston is higher-ranked and also has the better record means they will still attract plenty of attention from the markets here and that is helping keeping this number very manageable on the Cats. Cincinnati had 13 more shots from the field in the loss at Houston earlier this season but the shots simply were not falling for the Bearcats. Look for them to fall much better on their home floor early Sunday. Cincinnati is 16-1 SU after being held to 60 points or less in a game. Also, the Bearcats long-term run at home is 49-2 SU. Houston is 0-2 ATS this month. 8* CINCINNATI |
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03-09-19 | Tulsa v. Memphis OVER 155.5 | Top | 63-66 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #707 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Memphis Tigers vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane @ 9:30 ET - Many will look at this total and feel it is too big but I see plenty of value here with the over. Memphis has locked in their seeding for the upcoming AAC Tourney and now at home on senior day. The Tigers are loaded with seniors and will be able to play a loose and relaxed game with no pressure. That will equate to plenty of points in this one as Tulsa certainly is fine with a fast-paced style as well. The first meeting between these teams this season saw the teams combine for 174 points. The Golden Hurricane scored 95 in that game and they enter this game off a confidence-boosting win versus East Carolina. They put up 91 points in that game and even though the Pirates are a bad team, having a huge performance like that does wonders for the confidence of scorers. In other words, look for Tulsa to again be lighting up the scoreboard in this one but, at the same time, Memphis is going to have a huge game in their home finale. The Tigers are off a bit of a grinder at Cincinnati but that is typical Bearcats basketball. Now Memphis will go back into run and gun mode for this one and the Tigers had averaged 90 points per game in their 3 games prior to the loss to Cincy. The Golden Hurricane are 5-1 to the over this season when off a game in which they scored 80 or more points. Tulsa is 4-0 to the over this season in games against teams that average 77 points or more per game. The Tigers are 8-3 to the over in Saturday games this season. 10* OVER the total in Memphis |
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03-09-19 | Wizards v. Wolves OVER 241 | Top | 130-135 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #573 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Timberwolves vs Washington Wizards @ 8:05 ET - The over is a red hot 11-2 in the Wolves last 13 games. The over is 12-2 in the Wizards last 14 games. This is a back to back spot for Washington and they are 29-13 to the over their last 42 when in the 2nd game of a back to back. The Wizards are 9-1 to the over in Saturday games this season. Minnesota is playing this game with revenge and that is a situation that has seen them go 21-9 to the over this season. Also, the Timberwolves are 7-0 to the over in games against teams from the Southeast Division this season. Minnesota is 18-6 to the over when off a game in which they allowed 130 points or more. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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03-09-19 | Michigan +3.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 63-75 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
The Game of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Game #649 Saturday 10* Top Play Michigan Wolverines (+) @ Michigan State Wolverines @ 8 ET - Both teams have some injury situations but here is the key with that. The lone guy on the report for Michigan is Charles Matthews. Yes he is a starter and a solid player but he struggled and went 1 for 8 from the field with, overall, a very ugly stat line on the game, when these teams met two weeks ago in Ann Arbor. That was his 2nd straight poor game and now, without him, Michigan has won back to back games and played very well. In the loss to the Spartans two weeks ago the Wolverines actually had 10 more field goal attempts than Michigan State but were done in by some sub-par shooting and Matthews was a key contributor to that. With the Spartans currently without Joshua Langford for the season plus Nick Ward (hand) and Kyle Ahrens (back) also having issues, I would argue that the Wolverines injury situation is currently much better than that of the Spartans. At the same time, the fact this game is at Michigan State means we get additional line value as we can grab Michigan as a significant dog here. I'll gladly challenge the Spartans to win this game by more than a single possession (current line 3.5) as the fact is I expect the Wolverines to get their revenge. Michigan had won 3 straight in this series prior to the loss two weeks ago. Michigan State is on a 6-14 ATS run in Saturday games. The Spartans are on a 4-8 ATS run in March games. Michigan is on a 17-2 SU run in March games. The Wolverines also are on a sparking 14-6 ATS run as an underdog! 10* MICHIGAN |
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03-09-19 | Texas Tech v. Iowa State +2.5 | 80-73 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 6 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #628 Saturday 8* Iowa State Cyclones (+) vs Texas Tech Red Raiders @ 2 ET - This is a revenge game for the Red Raiders and Texas Tech has been the much hotter team in recent weeks in comparison with the Cyclones. Also, the Red Raiders are highly ranked. That said, the odds makers opened this line at roughly a pick'em (earliest lines that came out) and, as expected, everyone is jumping all over Texas Tech in this match-up. You know what usually happens when that happens! With that said, in typical contrarian fashion I am grabbing home dog Iowa State in this one. The Cyclones are expected to have Marial Shayok back for this game. Even if he doesn't play I look for Iowa State to get the win on their home floor for senior day. Keep in mind, Shayok is a senior. If he is able to go, he's going hard for this for senior day. If he can't go, the rest of the players go hard for the senior who could not get on the floor for this game. Even though the Cyclones have been on a bit of a downward cycle, they also know they can play spoiler here as the Red Raiders are seeking a win and hoping to secure the Big 12 regular season title. Texas Tech is 2-5 ATS (including 0-2 this season) when they're playing a game with home loss revenge. Iowa State is 12-3 SU in home games this season. Also, the Cyclones are 3-1 SU and ATS this season when they are off a game in which they allowed 80 or more points. 8* IOWA STATE |
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03-08-19 | Wizards v. Hornets OVER 233.5 | Top | 111-112 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #551 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Charlotte Hornets vs Washington Wizards @ 7:05 ET - The over is 14-2 in Washington's last 16 games. This is a key divisional battle but I just don't see how this game won't go over the total as both teams have been trending over and they've also trended over in their recent match-ups. 5 of the last 6 meetings between these teams have gone over the total. Charlotte's most recent game stayed under the total but they entered that game having gone over the total in 9 of their 12 prior games. Also, the Hornets most recent game ended up with a ridiculously low total of points scored. Charlotte managed only 84 points against the Heat on Wednesday and the over is a perfect 5-0 this season when the Hornets are off a game in which they were held to 93 points or less. Charlotte held the Heat to just 91 points on Wednesday and the Hornets are 5-0 to the over the last 5 times they are off a game in which they held their opponent under the century mark. Charlotte's divisional games are 8-4 to the over this season. Washington is 9-3 to the over in divisional games this season. The over is 13-6 in Wizards games with posted total of 230 points or more. In other words, though this total may appear to be big, it will prove to once again be not big enough. 10* OVER the total in Charlotte |
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03-08-19 | Minnesota v. Maryland -7 | Top | 60-69 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #854 Friday 10* Top Play Maryland Terrapins (-) vs Minnesota Golden Gophers @ 7 ET - With the Terrapins off back to back losses and the Golden Gophers off back to back wins, the set up here is perfect. We're getting value with a number kept lower than it should be considering this is a situation where Minnesota should get blown out on the road at Maryland. The Terrapins are 6-2 ATS this season when off a SU loss. Also, Maryland has not lost 3 straight games all season. Keep in mind, the Terrapins last two games were at Penn State and then hosting Michigan. Certainly those are not easy match-ups. Also, Maryland is now hosting a Minnesota team that, prior to winning their most recent road game, had lost 6 in a row away from home. The average margin of defeat in those road losses for the Golden Gophers was 11 points! Minnesota is a long-term 18-33 ATS as road dog in a range of 6.5 to 9 points. In games with posted total ranging from 131 to 139.5 points, the Terrapins are on a sparkling 9-1 ATS run. The host in this one is the much better shooting team and also the better team defensively. Factoring all that in there is great value being offered here with this very manageable line. 10* MARYLAND |
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03-07-19 | Pacers v. Bucks OVER 220.5 | Top | 98-117 | Loss | -106 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #547 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Bucks vs Indiana Pacers @ 8:05 ET - The Pacers are off an under versus the Bulls Tuesday but they actually allowed 93 field goal attempts in that game. A poor shooting night for Chicago helped insure that the game did not go over the total. However, Indiana entered that game on a 5-1 run to the over. As for the Bucks, they are also off of an under. Milwaukee had a poor shooting night at Phoenix Monday. Despite 95 field goal attempts, the Bucks game versus the Suns stayed under the total. Certainly the proper pace was there for an over and that is nothing new in recent Milwaukee games. The Bucks entered that game on a 4-1 run to the over. 2 of the last 3 meetings between the Pacers and Bucks in Milwaukee have gone over the total. The Bucks are happy to be back home and I expect a huge game from them on the offensive end after that shot poorly in back to back games to wrap up their road trip. The over is 27-16 when Milwaukee is off an upset loss as a favorite. Look for the over to improve to 8-4 this season when the Bucks enter a game with two days of rest between games. Indiana is playing this game with home loss revenge and I look for the Pacers over to improve to 5-2 this season when in that situation. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
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03-07-19 | Temple +1.5 v. Connecticut | Top | 78-71 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #603 Thursday 10* Top Play Temple Owls (+) @ Connecticut Huskies @ 7 ET - While it is true that the Owls have a huge game on deck, they are also well aware of the fact that the game versus Central Florida will become much less important if they don't take care of business at Connecticut. The Huskies certainly have not been the same team since Jalen Adams got hurt. UConn is coming off a win versus South Florida Sunday but that victory was preceded by 6 straight losses. Dating all the back to December 22nd, the Huskies have managed back to back wins only ONCE! You can see that, after the win over the Bulls, the odds favor a loss here versus the Owls. As for Temple, they are off a non-covering win versus Tulane. What is noteworthy about the Owls season is they have had only one standalone victory this entire season. In other words, when they get a W it is normally the beginning of a nice streak for Temple and they are hell-bent on closing the season with 3 straight victories. Before even worrying about the Saturday match-up with UCF, the Owls know they need this one. All signs point to them getting it. The Owls are 4-0 SU and ATS this season as a road dog of 3 or less points. The Huskies are 1-3 SU this season when off a game in which they scored 60 points or less. Connecticut is also 6-12 SU (and 5-13 ATS) when in that situation the last few seasons. UConn has been held to 63 points or less in 5 straight games and also managed only 63 in the first match-up with Temple this season. The Owls have scored 70 points or more in 7 of their last 8 games. 10* TEMPLE |
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03-06-19 | 76ers -5 v. Bulls | Top | 107-108 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #539 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Chicago Bulls @ 8:05 ET - Both teams in a back to back spot here. This line opened up at a -6 and dropped to a -5 on Philly. Although the Bulls have won some games recently those victories have almost all come over poor teams with losing records. One exception was the Celtics but Boston was in a funk at the time. The fact is that Chicago is an ugly 4-24 SU this season in games against teams with a winning record. The 76ers are a solid 17-6 SU this season in games against teams with a losing record. You can see why the likelihood is high that the Sixers get the win. That said, the pointspread dropping to a -5 offers significant value here. 38 of the Bulls 46 losses this season have come by a margin of at least 5 points. Philadelphia has had a lot of rest prior to this back to back situation so that sets them up well. Yesterday's win over Orlando was just the 3rd game for the 76ers in the past 8 days. The Bulls, conversely, will be playing for the 4th time in 6 days. Chicago is 6-14 ATS (1-19 SU!) in their last 20 home games that had a posted total of 220 points or more. The Sixers are on a 23-12 ATS run in March games. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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03-06-19 | LSU +1.5 v. Florida | Top | 79-78 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #787 Wednesday 10* Top Play LSU Tigers (+) @ Florida Gators @ 7 ET - This is a triple revenge spot for the Tigers. Not only did they lost to the Gators in their meetings each of the last two seasons, LSU also lost this season's first match-up (in OT) versus Florida two weeks ago. The fact is that the Tigers are a perfect 8-0 on the road in SEC action this season and have been playing extremely well overall with only two losses in their 19 games dating back to mid-December. The Tigers have one of the best point guards in the nation and behind him is a freshmen who played very well during his recent two game absence. The depth of LSU at the point is a key to why this offense functions as well as it does. While the Gators are averaging only 68.3 points per game on the season, the Tigers have averaged 81.8 points per game this season. The Gators are off a home loss to Georgia. Of course that should mean a bounce back is expected here. However, Florida has been on a money-burning stretch for an extended stretch now as they've failed to cover 9 of their last 12 games. LSU is on a 4-1 SU and ATS run as a road dog of 3 or less points. The Gators are 3-11 ATS in home games this season. Florida motivated here by hopes of an NCAA Tournament bid this season but Tigers highly motivated by revenge as well as being in the driver's seat for finishing at the top of the SEC standings for the regular season. 10* LSU |
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03-05-19 | Rockets v. Raptors OVER 226.5 | Top | 107-95 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 24 m | Show |
TNT Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #519 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Raptors vs Houston Rockets @ 8:05 ET - The Rockets burned me bad on Sunday, though they beat the Celtics at Boston. The problem was that Houston scored extremely well each of the first 3 quarters but then in the 4th they didn't even total half the amount of points they did in any of the first 3 quarters. The result was a painful bad beat with the over in that situation Sunday and I won't hesitate to come right back with the over here after that was one of the worst beats of the season for sure. The total on this game at Toronto opened up at a 228.5 but has dropped to a 226.5 as of very early Tuesday morning. This is offering us great line value here. The Raptors have gone over the total in 5 of their last 7 games. Toronto is off a loss at Detroit where they scored only 107 points. Prior to that poor effort they had scored 118 points or more in 12 of their last 16 games. The Rockets were held to 115 at Boston due to a horrific 4th quarter but Houston entered that game having scored 118 points or more in 9 of their 12 prior games. You can see from these numbers why it is logical to expect this game to get to the mid-230s and yet the posted total has dropped to mid-220s. In terms of technical value, the over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between these teams. Toronto also has revenge here and that is a situation that has seen them go 13-5 to the over this season. The Raptors also are 7-1 to the over this season in their games against Southwest Division opponents. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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03-05-19 | Xavier v. Butler OVER 138 | Top | 66-71 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #601 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Butler Bulldogs vs Xavier Musketeers @ 6 ET - Butler's game at Villanova stayed under the total but they entered that game having gone over the total in 4 straight games. All signs point to the over trend resuming here. The Bulldogs have allowed 49% or more from the field in 3 of their last 4 games. Also, Butler has allowed 48% or more from the field in 7 of their last 10 games. On Tuesday they are hosting a Xavier team that has been red hot with their shooting. The Musketeers have averaged well over 50% from the field in their last 4 games and also have been consistently knocking down close to 40% of their threes during this stretch. The over only went 2-2 in those 4 games and Xavier is on a long-term under trend but that is helping keep this total lower than it should be. In fact it opened up as high as 140 but is now down to a 138 as of early Tuesday morning. This has led to even more value with the over. The last 6 meetings between these teams have seen 5 go over the total. The Musketeers are on a long-term 9-5 run to the over in games with a posted total in the 130s. Also, Xavier is a long-term 9-5 to the over as a road dog in a range of 3.5 to 6 points. When off a win against a Big East foe this season the Musketeers are 5-2 to the over. Also, there is a "tightener" in all this and that is that Xavier is a perfect 5-0 to the over the last 5 times they've been on the road in a game with a posted total between 135 and 139.5 points. Butler is 8-1 to the over the last 9 times they've been a home favorite in a range of 3.5 to 6 points. In home games with a posted total between 135 and 139.5 points, the Bulldogs are on a 6-1 run to the over. 10* OVER the total in Butler |
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03-04-19 | Texas v. Texas Tech -8 | Top | 51-70 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #868 Monday 10* Top Play Texas Tech Red Raiders (-) vs Texas Longhorns @ 9 ET - The Longhorns are still without the suspended Kerwin Roach. Though they won Saturday versus Iowa State, they lost their two prior games without him. I know this spread may seem "big" but it is not without support. The Longhorns and Red Raiders have a huge rivalry and the Horns had dominated Texas Tech in games played in Austin prior to the Red Raiders road win earlier this season. How does that relate to this game? The fact is that Texas Tech won't hesitate if given the chance to blowout the Longhorns in Lubbock. I feel this one is set up perfect for that to happen as the Horns do battle without their leading scorer. Texas has scored very well in their last two games but I consider that an aberration as they shot the ball ridiculously well. Prior those two games the Horns had averaged just 66.7 points in their 3 prior games and now they face the top defense in the Big 12. Texas Tech enters this game having won 7 in a row and 6 of those wins came by at least a dozen points! Though the Red Raiders most recent home win came by just 4 points, their 4 most recent home wins prior to that each came by 19 points or more! The Longhorns are 3-10 SU and 5-8 ATS their last 13 games with one day of rest or less between games. The Red Raiders, same parameters, are 8-4 SU and ATS their last dozen and that includes a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS this season! Additionally, Texas Tech is 7-0 SU (and 5-1-1 ATS) as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points in recent seasons. Red Raiders are highly motivated for #1 spot in Big 12 and put a beating on the short-handed Horns here. 10* TEXAS TECH |
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03-04-19 | Nuggets +1.5 v. Spurs | Top | 103-104 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #505 Monday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (+) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 8:35 ET - The Spurs are 3-0 ATS in their last 3 meetings with the Nuggets and that includes covering both match-ups this season. Those games took place in late December. The Spurs were favored by 4 when they hosted the Nuggets the day after Christmas. Now, the first lines that popped up on this game yesterday afternoon had Denver as a 2 point favorite. Of course the markets are jumping all over the perceived "mistake" and have now moved the line to San Antonio being the favorite. I understand the perception but that doesn't mean I agree with it! The Nuggets are only a game over .500 in road games this season while the Spurs are 24-7 on their home floor this season. But I am here to tell you that the Nuggets are the much better overall team in comparison with this season's version of the Spurs. Yes San Antonio is off back to back wins but they previously lost 7 of their 8 prior games. I know those games were on the road but the Spurs also got blown out by double digits by the Nets and Knicks! Catching one of the best teams in the league now off back to back losses and we're not even having to lay any points (thanks to being on the road and thanks to the market action), the Nuggets are the play here. They led the Spurs by double digits at half when these teams most recently met but had a rare bad game in terms of turnovers and allowed San Antonio to close that gap in the 2nd half and lose by just 3 points. That result also now giving us some line value here as the Nuggets have substantial edges all over the floor in this match-up. The last 6 times the Nuggets have entered a game on a losing streak of 2 or more games SU, they've gone 5-1 SU and I expect another win here in that situation. The Spurs, prior to back to back covers against the Pistons and Thunder, had gone 1-10 ATS in their 11 previous games! By the way, San Antonio was outshot by a combined 16 shots from the field in the games against Detroit and OKC. That catches up with the Spurs in this one and the Nuggets pull away as this game gets into the latter stages. 10* DENVERÂ |
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03-04-19 | Mavs v. Nets OVER 224 | 88-127 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Monday 8* OVER the total in Brooklyn Nets vs Dallas Mavericks @ 7:35 ET - The Mavs are off a game where they shot 30.6% from the field and scored just 81 points. The Nets are off a game where they shot 35.2% from the field and scored only 88 points. That has many looking to the under in this match-up. In typical contrarian fashion, I am looking the other way! Prior to Brooklyn's most recent ugly game, the over was 7-2 in the Nets last 9 games. Also, the Mavericks are on a 3-0 run to the over in their last 3 road games. The over is a perfect 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these teams. The over is 8-3 in the Nets last 11 games against teams with a losing record (Dallas currently 8 games under .500). The over is also an incredible long-term 21-8 (including 8-1 this season) when the Nets face a Southwest Division opponent. More of the same on Monday! 8* OVER the total in Brooklyn |
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03-04-19 | Virginia -5.5 v. Syracuse | 79-53 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #863 Monday 8* Virginia Cavaliers (-) @ Syracuse Orange @ 7 ET - This line opened at a 7 and is now down to a 5.5 as of early Monday morning. We're getting great line value here with the road favorite. This game carries plenty of meaning for the Cavs as they can maintain the #1 ACC spot by winning their final two games. That's because Virginia has the tiebreaker over the Tar Heels by virtue of beating North Carolina earlier this season. As for the Orange, certainly Syracuse can be a tough team and that is particularly true at home. However, Tony Bennett's Cavaliers are known for giving the Orange problems and I expect that to continue here. The Cavs are 9-1 SU and ATS in road games this season. Syracuse is 1-4 SU and ATS this season against teams that allow 60 points or less per game. Virginia, of course, is known for the stifling defense. As for the Orange, they are actually off a great effort on the defensive end in their win over Wake Forest. However, Syracuse is 0-5 ATS the last 5 times they were off a game in which they allowed 60 or less points. 8* VIRGINIA |
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03-03-19 | Rockets v. Celtics OVER 225 | Top | 115-104 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #575 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Celtics vs Houston Rockets @ 3:35 ET - The very first number that popped up on this total offshore yesterday was a 229.5 and now, as of early this morning, the total has dropped down to as low as a 225 in many books. I understand the market perception here as the Celtics are known for their defense but lets not forget this is still a non-conference match-up. I like overs in non-conference match-ups as a general rule because you generally don't see the same defensive intensity you see in, for example, a key divisional battle. The last two meetings between these teams, including the match-up this season in Houston, have each totaled 240 points or more. The Rockets enter this game having averaged 118 points per game their last 13 games. Boston's last two home games have stayed under the total but, prior to this, the Celtics were on a 5-0 run to the over in home games. Also, even including their last 2 games (unders), Boston has allowed an average of 112 points per game in their last 11 games overall. Since the All Star break a Celtics offense that had been red hot before the break, has had its share of struggles. However, on Sunday they will take advantage of a Rockets defense that is allowing 111 points per game this season. This is the Celtics 3rd game of their homestand and I look for them to light it up. The Rockets have allowed 114.3 points per game in their last 6 games. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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03-03-19 | Wichita State v. SMU OVER 139 | 67-55 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 5 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Game #819 Sunday 8* OVER the total in SMU Mustangs vs Wichita State Shockers @ 2 ET - SMU is off a very low-scoring game but that had a lot to do with who they faced as they got involved in a defensive battle with Cincinnati. Keep in mind, prior to this, the Mustangs were on a 6-2 run to the over. Also, when the Mustangs match up with the Shockers it has been points aplenty. The 3 meetings between these teams all went over the total and all 3 games totaled over 160 points! Wichita State, like SMU, also enters this game off on under but only 2 of their 7 prior games had stayed under the total. The Shockers had a poor shooting game versus Connecticut but previously had shot the ball very well in 3 of their 4 prior games. Look for the hot shooting to resume here. This total has dropped to as low as a 139 but is a little higher in some books (and likely will rise again) and Wichita State is 9-2 to the over in road games with a posted total in a range of 140 to 144.5 points. 8* OVER the total in SMU |
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03-03-19 | Tulane v. Temple OVER 146 | Top | 69-80 | Win | 100 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #821 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Temple Owls vs Tulane Green Wave @ 2 ET - There is unlikely to be very much defensive intensity in this match-up. The Owls are one of the top teams in the AAC while the Green Wave are the worst team in the conference. We're getting a little extra line value here because this season's first match-up between these teams stayed under the total. Keep in mind, the over was on a 5-0 run prior to that. Tulane is also a long-term 17-5 to the over when playing with home loss revenge. The Green Wave also are 4-1 to the over this season as a road dog of 12.5 or more points. Temple is 9-4 to the over in home games this season. Also, the Owls are a long-term 4-1 to the over when facing teams that allow an average of 77 points or more per game. The Green Wave enter this game having allowed 82.3 points per game their last 7 games. Tulane has averaged a respectable 73.7 points per game their last 3 games. Temple has scored 81 points or more in 5 of its last 6 home games in American Athletic Conference action. The Owls have allowed 74.6 points per game their last 5 games. You can see why I am expecting this game to get into the 150s or even 160s early Sunday afternoon. 10* OVER the total in Temple |
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03-03-19 | Blazers -2 v. Hornets | 118-108 | Win | 100 | 3 h 30 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #573 Sunday 8* Portland Trail Blazers (-) @ Charlotte Hornets @ 1:05 ET - The Trail Blazers are on a 6-0 ATS run. However, they are off a tight SU loss (at Toronto) in their most recent game. That serves as plenty of motivation here as Portland had entered that game winning 5 straight. Look for the Blazers to resume the winning here. They catch the Hornets off a big road win at Brooklyn. Prior to that win Charlotte had lost 7 of their 9 previous games. The Hornets surely want revenge here as they got thrashed by the Blazers at Portland in January by 31 points. However, the Trail Blazers enter this game fired up after the loss to the Raptors and I don't see them being denied here. They are the vastly superior team to the Hornets and we get line value here since this game is at Charlotte. Lay the short number with the road favorite in this one. 8* PORTLAND |
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03-02-19 | Warriors v. 76ers +5 | Top | 120-117 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #564 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) vs Golden State Warriors @ 8:35 ET - This line opened up at a -4 on the Warriors and quickly jumped up to a -5 as the markets are loving backing Golden State here since they have revenge from earlier this season. Also, with Joel Embiid and Boban Marjanovic out for the Sixers that has captured attention as well. What is getting overlooked however is that the Warriors are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and Klay Thompson is dealing with a sore knee. They may rest him here. Additionally, the Sixers are at home and playing for just the 2nd time in 5 nights. This is part of a stretch where Philadelphia plays only 3 games in 8 days as they have two more days off after this game. From a scheduling standpoint this situation is a great one for Philly and you know that the Wells Fargo Center will be rocking with the defending NBA champs in town. The Sixers are hungry to prove they are a legitimate threat for the NBA title. Even without Embiid, this team is highly talented with Jimmy Butler, Ben Simmons, Tobias Harris, and JJ Redick. The betting public loves the Warriors but Golden State is on a 2-10 ATS skid. The Sixers are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS against Pacific Division opponents this season. The 76ers are 6-2 SU in their last 8 games overall and one of those two losses came by just points. We're catching 5 here and the home dog Sixers have a great shot at the outright upset as the Warriors have lost 4 of their last 6 SU. One of those two Golden State SU wins came by just two points. Grab the generous points being offered here. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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03-02-19 | North Carolina -4.5 v. Clemson | Top | 81-79 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Game #665Â Saturday 10* Top Play North Carolina Tar Heels (-) @ Clemson Tigers @ 6 ET - Clemson is at home here and they've gone 12-3 at home this season while North Carolina is 10-3 away from home on the season. Of course that is what is keeping this line lower than it should be. I expect the Tar Heels to blast the Tigers here. There are a number of key factors that support that theory. One of which is that UNC lost here by 4 last season. Clemson hit 15 of 30 threes in that game. That had a lot to do with it and the Tar Heels had won 10 straight over the Tigers before that game. In other words, this is a big-time payback spot. In games against the ACC teams that currently have 20 wins, North Carolina lost to Virginia but beat Duke, Virginia Tech, NC State (twice), and Florida State. Now lets talk about how Clemson has done in facing top tier teams. The Tigers did beat Virginia Tech but they have lost to Florida State (twice), Duke, Virginia, and NC State. You can easily see that when it comes time to step in big games this season the Tar Heels have risen to the occasion while the Tigers have faltered. Look for that to be the case again Saturday. UNC still has a shot to finish at the top of the ACC if they win out and, if you were worried about motivation here, the fact the Tar Heels lost here last season dismisses that notion. As for Clemson they are surely motivated too but they have proven time and time again this season they can not beat the top tier teams in the ACC. In fact, I should have mentioned the other two 18-win teams - Syracuse and Louisville. Clemson lost to both of them as well. So the over-rated Tigers are 1-7 against top ACC competition. The Tar Heels beat Syracuse and went 1-1 against Louisville. So the deserved #5 team in the nation is a combined 7-2 against top ACC competition. Considering these factors, plus revenge, plus a short number to lay here, and we've got tremendous value here with the road favorite. Clemson is 0-7 SU and 2-5 ATS as an underdog this season. The Tar Heels are 9-2 SU and ATS in road games this season. 10* NORTH CAROLINA |
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03-02-19 | Rutgers v. Iowa -8.5 | 86-72 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #698 Saturday 8* Iowa Hawkeyes (-) vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ 5 ET - Iowa’s head coach Fran McCaffery has been suspended for two games for berating an official after the ugly loss to Ohio State in the Hawkeyes most recent game. The good news for the Hawkeyes is the assistant coaches who will take over for the next two games include guys with head coaching experience and they've also each been on his staff the past 9 seasons. Additionally, McCaffery is still leading practices and film sessions and will even be in the building for this game as there is a ceremony for Hawkeyes senior Baer taking place Saturday. Of course Iowa is going to be hungry for multiple reasons here. They're not happy about the fact they just lost by 20 to Ohio State and certainly that led to the anger which further led to their coach's tirade which further led to his suspension. The Hawkeyes want to respond here after all the ugliness from the Buckeyes game and this is the final home game for Iowa. Where they hold a big edge here in this match-up is not only the home floor factor but also the fact that the Scarlet Knights struggle to defend the 3. Also, the set up is perfect with Iowa off an ugly loss and Rutgers off a rare win. The Scarlet Knights had lost 5 of 6 prior to winning their most recent game. The Hawkeyes are 7-1 ATS this season when off a game in which they allowed 80 or more points. Also, Rutgers hasn't played since Sunday and they are 2-5 ATS (including 1-3 ATS this season) when playing with 5 or 6 days of rest between games. Iowa is also 9-4 ATS in recent seasons when facing a team with a losing record. That is combined trends of 21-7 / 75% in favor of a home blowout in this one. 8* IOWA |
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03-02-19 | Butler v. Villanova OVER 137 | 54-75 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
PA Insider - Rickenbach CBB Game #647 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Villanova Wildcats vs Butler Bulldogs @ 2 ET - The over is a perfect 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these teams. While it is true that Wildcats have been having some shooting struggles recently, it is also true that they have allowed opponents to shoot an average of 50% from the field against them in their last 3 games. Also, being at home again here helps the Villanova offensive production and they've scored 80 points or more in each of their last 4 meetings with Butler. The Bulldogs enter this game on a 4-0 run to the over in their last 4 games. As a road dog of 6.5 to 9.5 points in recent seasons Butler has gone 2-0 to the over. Since December 1st, when the Wildcats enter a game off back to back unders and their line is in a range from pick'em to a favorite of any size, they have gone 4-0 to the over. Combined perfect trends of 15-0 in favor of another high-scoring game involving these Big East foes. 8* OVER the total in Villanova |
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03-01-19 | Blazers +5 v. Raptors | Top | 117-119 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #541 Friday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - Both teams are off wins over the Celtics. Even though the Raptors have an extra day of rest here in comparison with the Blazers, the fact is that the win over Boston was a much bigger victory for Toronto than Portland. Of course that is because the Celtics are divisional rivals of the Raptors. Note that the first 12 times this season that Toronto has been off a divisional game, they've covered their next game just 3 times. That is a poor 25% ATS rate for the Raptors when off a divisional game this season and, again, that win over Boston wasn't just "any" divisional game! Some will be looking to Toronto to get revenge here too because they lost the first game at Portland this season. However, that game against Boston meant a helluva lot more to the Raptors than this game does. Also, Toronto swept the Trail Blazers last season so it is Portland that is now looking to return the favor this season. The Blazers enter this game red hot as they are on a 5-0 SU and ATS run. As for the Raptors, they had failed to cover 5 straight games before the big win over the Celtics. Look for Toronto to drop to 4-9 ATS in Friday games this season while the Blazers add to an impressive record in March games that is 25-6 SU and ATS the past two seasons! Also, the Trail Blazers are 6-2 ATS (and 8-0 SU!) against Atlantic Division opponents. 10* PORTLAND |
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03-01-19 | Hornets v. Nets OVER 228 | 123-112 | Win | 101 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #545 Friday 8* OVER the total in Brooklyn Nets vs Charlotte Hornets @ 7:35 ET - This total opened up at a 231 yesterday and now we're seeing numbers as low as 227.5 as of early Friday morning. Great value with the over here as both of these teams love to jack up threes and I am expecting a true "run and gun" affair in this one. These team just met Saturday and that game totaled 232 points. That brought the over to a fantastic 10-3 in Charlotte's games versus Atlantic Division opponents this season. The Hornets enter this game on an overall 7-3 run to the over in their past 10 games. The Nets are off a high-scoring home loss to Washington and the over is now 6-2 in their past 8 games. Also, the over is 7-2 in Brooklyn's last 9 games against teams with a losing record. The Nets are allowing 113 points per game at home this season and Charlotte is allowing an average of 115 points per game on the road this season. This has the makings of a shootout that should approach 240 points. 8* OVER the total in Brooklyn |
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03-01-19 | Rhode Island v. Dayton -7 | Top | 72-70 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #860 Dayton Flyers vs Rhode Island Rams @ 7 ET - The earliest number on this game was a -9 yesterday. As of this morning the line is down to a -7 on Dayton. I understand what the markets are looking at here. This is a revenge spot for the Rams considering the Flyers routed them on their home floor 3 weeks ago. However, the thought that Rhode Island automatically bounces back and gets the cover here is not that well-founded. The fact is last season the Rams beat the Flyers by double digits in both games! In other words, how these games play out has a lot to do with the talent of each team each season and, this year, it is the Flyers turn to get the sweep! They lost by 25 at Rhode Island last season and also were beaten by the Rams by 14 in Dayton. Again, the same season revenge is over-played. If anything, it is the Flyers (the far superior team this season) that really has revenge here as they remember what happened on their home floor last season. Another key to the value here is Dayton is off a game against one of the Atlantic Ten's worst teams and has another weak foe on deck. In other words, the Flyers are fully focused on the Rams here. Dayton has been shooting the ball extremely well and that includes from beyond the arc particularly when on their home floor. Rhode Island is off a rare win where they shot the ball well but they faced a bad George Washington team. Prior to that victory, the Rams were held to 37.5% or less from the field in 5 straight games! RI went 0-5 SU and ATS in those games. Rhode Island is 2-9 SU and ATS in their 11 lined road games this season. The Flyers are 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS in their 8 line games against teams with a losing record this season. Home blowout on tap in this one! 10* DAYTON |
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03-01-19 | Columbia v. Brown -4.5 | 80-77 | Loss | -112 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #852 Friday 8* Brown Bears (-) vs Columbia Lions @ 5 ET - This line has dropped from an opener of 7.5 yesterday to a 4.5 as of early this morning. Brown is 11-2 at home this season. Columbia is 2-9 on the road this season. Those are SU numbers and of course we need to cover the spread here. But those are still powerful numbers and with the line now becoming very short on this game, I am comfortable that we'll get the ATS win. The Lions are 1-7 SU in their last 8 games and those 7 losses came by an average margin of defeat of 8 points per loss. The Bears are off a 3 point win over Dartmouth Saturday but that is just the 2nd time in 11 home wins that this season that the margin of victory was less than 5 points. Brown's other 2 Ivy League home wins had each come by 8 or more points. Columbia allows 40% three pointers on the road this season while the Bears are knocking down 37.4% of their threes at home this season and have been particularly hot from beyond the arc in recent home games. The line move here has led to great line value with the small home favorite. Lay it! 8* BROWN |
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02-28-19 | 76ers +8 v. Thunder | Top | 108-104 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Game #539 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Oklahoma City Thunder @ 8:05 ET - With big men Joel Embiid and Boban  Marjanovic sidelined for this one, there has been a huge jump in the line. The very first number that was posted offshore yesterday was a 5 and now this line is up to an 8. Keep in mind, the Sixers still have ton of talent on the floor with Ben Simmons, Jimmy Butler, Tobias Harris, and JJ Redick. Also, Jonah Bolden and Mike Scott are capable of putting up some solid numbers with both Embiid and Marjanovic expected to be out for this game. We're getting a ton of value here with the big points being offered. The Thunder stole one from the Sixers last month in Philly and the 76ers haven't forgotten that game. The fact is that Oklahoma City has had the Sixers number in recent years but of course this season is the best 76ers team they've faced in a long time. Again, even with Embiid and Marjanovic out, I don't see this being an easy win at all for the Thunder. Philly is hell-bent on getting revenge here and Oklahoma City is on an 0-4 ATS skid as the only SU win they have during this stretch came by a single point. For those of you that like statistical odds too, the fact is that there is an interesting pattern with Philly this season. They have 39 wins on the season and, amazingly, they have had only 3 standalone wins. What I mean by that is when the Sixers are off a win that followed a loss they almost always follow it with another win. They have 14 streaks of 2 or more wins. They have had only 3 occurrences where they produced just a single win and all those were in calendar year 2018. In other words, don't be surprised if Philadelphia shocks and gets the outright upset win here but, of course, I am grabbing the points with the 76ers as added insurance! The Sixers are 36-17 ATS including 5-1 ATS (and SU!) this season when playing with home loss revenge. The Thunder are 1-9 ATS (and 3-7 SU!) when off a division game. Could be a shocker in OKC tonight. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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02-28-19 | Old Dominion +1.5 v. Texas-San Antonio | Top | 65-64 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
TV Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #667 Thursday 10* Top Play Old Dominion Monarchs (+) @ UTSA Roadrunners @ 8 ET - They were ahead by 17 points with under 3:10 to play. They were ahead by 8 points with under 1:20 to play. They were ahead by 6 points with under 45 seconds to play. They were ahead by 4 points with under 35 seconds to play. They ended up losing the game by a single point. Of course I am talking about the Monarchs first match-up with the Roadrunners which also took place at UTSA and was played in late January. That makes this a major revenge spot for Old Dominion as that game was truly one of the most insane finishes of the entire college basketball season and the Monarchs were on the wrong end of it. Because this game is again at San Antonio we're getting line value here as we don't even have to lay any points to have Old Dominion with big-time revenge on their side. Why are they again meeting in San Antonio? It is because Conference USA made a decision to go to a bonus play-in system this season which then sets the seeding for the upcoming conference tourney. There are 3 groups of seeds and Old Dominion and UTSA are in the group that is seeded 1 through 5. That means Monarchs and Roadrunners can each finish as high as #1 or as low as #5 in the seeding for the upcoming tourney. Old Dominion already won their first game Saturday. For UTSA, this is their first game of the play-in schedule. Not only do the Monarchs badly want revenge here, they also are going for the #1 seed in the tourney. Old Dominion has proven themselves as the top team in CUSA this season and they will show that on the floor in San Antonio tonight. The Monarchs have won 11 of their last 12 games and the lone loss was the ridiculous 1-point defeat at UTSA. The Roardrunners are just 5-5 their last 10 games and that includes that miracle win over Old Dominion. I am well aware of the fact that UTSA is on a 10-game winning streak on their home floor. But that is all the more incentive for the better team in this match-up as they get payback in a major way tonight. Also, the Roadrunners will be very rusty here as they have not played since the 16th - a span of nearly two weeks! 10* OLD DOMINION |
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02-28-19 | Xavier v. St. John's -5.5 | 84-73 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #602 Thursday 8* St John's Red Storm (-) vs Xavier Musketeers @ 6:30 ET - This is a final home game situation for the Red Storm and sets up extremely well. I know the Musketeers have been hot but I don't see them being able to rise up again here. After 4 straight upset wins, including knocking off the defending champs in their most recent game, Xavier falls short here. The Musketeers have had St John's number in recent seasons but last season they led them by only 4 at the half in Xavier before going to out to blow them away in the 2nd half and win by 28 points! The Red Storm have not forgotten that embarrassing defeat and now get a chance for revenge at home. St John's has only lost one game at Carnesecca Arena and that was a game in which leading scorer Shamorie Ponds did not play. I am aware of the fact that 2nd-leading scorer Mustapha Heron misssed the most recent game for the Red Storm and is questionable with a knee injury here. However, I don't expect him to miss this final home game situation and feel he merely needed to rest the knee. Now having not played a game in over a week, Heron should be good to go here. However, even if he misses this one, St John's just knocked off Seton Hall without him on Saturday. Many will look at this game and feel that the points look too big but this game is priced this way with good reason. Even with some recent success, the Musketeers are still just 3-6 SU and ATS in road games this season. The Red Storm, including games both at Carnesecca Arena and Madison Square Garden, are 13-3 at home this season. 10 of Xavier's 13 losses this season have come by a margin of 7 or more points. Lay it! 8* ST JOHN'S |
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02-27-19 | Rockets v. Hornets OVER 226.5 | Top | 118-113 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
Early Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Charlotte Hornets vs Houston Rockets @ 7:05 ET - The Rockets are healthy and in rhythm again. Even so, their last 3 games have remained under the total. That is helping to keep this total lower than it should be. This one opened up at a 228 yesterday and has dropped to as low as a 226.5 as of early this morning. Houston has scored an average of 118 points per game in its last 7 road games. Charlotte is off an under versus Golden State but the Hornets entered the Warriors game having gone 6-2 to the over in their 8 prior games. Charlotte has averaged 118 points per game in it last 5 home games. You can see why I am expecting this game to get into the mid-230s! The Hornets lost by double digits to the defending champs on Monday and they are 9-4 to the over this season when off a loss by a margin of 10 points or more. Each of the Hornets last 3 games have totaled at least 231 points. 3 of Houston's last 4 games have totaled at least 230 points. 10* OVER the total in Charlotte |
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02-27-19 | Tennessee -4.5 v. Ole Miss | Top | 73-71 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
Early Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #795 Wednesday 10* Top Play Tennessee Volunteers (-) @ Ole Miss Rebels @ 7 ET - This is a great value situation because everyone is a little down on the Vols right now while the Rebels have been getting a little extra attention thanks to some recent winning. Here is the key with those Ole Miss wins however. The Rebels have won 5 of their last 6 games but 2 of the wins came against Georgia. The Bulldogs are 1-13 in SEC action! The most impressive win would be over Auburn (7-7 in SEC) but the other two of the five wins came against A & M (5-10) and Missouri (3-12). In other words, Ole Miss has been helped by their schedule of late. As for the Volunteers, they have faced a tough schedule and the blowout loss at Kentucky recently is still fresh in the minds of the betting public. Also, Tennessee is off a very tight OT loss at LSU in their most recent games. So while it is true that the Vols have lost 2 of their last 3 games it is also true that those defeats came against a pair of teams that are EACH 13-2 in SEC action! Prior to the SU and ATS loss at LSU, Tennessee had been a perfect 4-0 ATS the last 4 times they enter a game on an ATS losing streak of 3 or more games. They get back on track in a big way here against an Ole Miss team that is over-valued right now. The Rebels have been a hot ATS team this season but they are on a long-term 8-14 ATS run in February games and the fade is on here! The Volunteers have won and covered 3 straight against Mississippi and get the job done again here in a road rout. 10* TENNESSEE |
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02-27-19 | Maryland v. Penn State OVER 135.5 | 61-78 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #781 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Penn State Nittany Lions vs Maryland Terrapins @ 6:30 ET - The over is 5-0 in the Nittany Lions last 5 games. They allowed 76 points at Illinois Saturday. Prior to that, Penn State's 4 previous games in this stretch saw them allow a combined 50% from the field. Game after game the Lions have proven susceptible on defense and now they face a dangerous and very athletic Terrapins team that will score very well on them. The key to the value with the over here is that Maryland is in a sandwich spot and I suspect their defense, as a result of the situation, is not going to be at its best in terms of intensity. The Terrapins are off a big home win versus Ohio State and have another home game, a huge one, on deck versus Michigan. This is a tough spot for Maryland and all the stellar results on defense that we've seen from them in recent games are likely to take a hit here. Keep in mind, Penn State is playing with a ton of confidence on the offensive end of the floor. The Nittany Lions have scored an average of 85 points per game in their last 3 home games and YES that includes backing out their overtime period versus Purdue. That is the other impressive thing about the PSU scoring surge at home is that it has included games against the Boilermakers, Nebraska, and Michigan. Those teams collectively allow an average of about 63 points per game but the Nittany Lions blew those averages away. The over is 14-7 for Penn State when they are off a win versus a conference rival and that includes 3-0 this season. Also, the Nittany Lions are 5-2 to the over this season when playing with road loss revenge. That game totaled just 125 points at Maryland but this game will play out much differently per all the above. 8* OVER the total in Penn State |
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02-26-19 | Magic v. Knicks OVER 216 | Top | 103-108 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
Game of the Week Total - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Knicks vs Orlando Magic @ 7:35 ET - The Knicks are building confidence and that lends itself to a high-scoring game versus the Magic here. New York is off a big win over the Spurs Sunday. The Knicks have now won 2 of their last 3 games and also, New York has gone over the total in 2 of its last 3 home games. The Magic show strong defense to the marketplace as their field goal percentage allowed has been low in recent games. However, Orlando is off a huge upset win at Toronto on Sunday. In other words, this is a flat spot for the Magic as they go from facing the best team in the east to now facing the worst team in the east. Also, the pace for high-scoring games has certainly been there of late for Orlando. In the last 11 Magic games, the average field goal attempts for their opponents has been 92. Also, remember the upset win over the Raptors I just mentioned? The over is 13-3 this season when Orlando is off an outright upset as an underdog! Also, when the Magic are off a win by a double digit margin this season, the over has gone 10-4. As for the Knicks, the over is 2-0 the last two times they've been an underdog to Orlando. I look for another high scoring one here as the Knicks are installed as a sizable home dog here and bring another huge effort. 10* OVER the total in New York |
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02-26-19 | Toledo +1 v. Ball State | Top | 80-72 | Win | 100 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Game #617 Tuesday 10* Top Play Toledo Rockets (+) @ Ball State Cardinals @ 7 ET - The Rockets have only lost 2 home games all season. Why am I mentioning home games when they are on the road here? I mention it because one of the two home losses Toledo had was to the best team in the MAC, Buffalo. However, the other home floor defeat was at the hands of these Cardinals. In other words, it is payback time. Actually that payback has been a long time coming too! Ball State has beaten the Rockets five straight times. Some will look at this line and say it is easy just to take the Cardinals on their home floor to get the win. As you know, nothing is ever that easy and I love the value here we're getting with revenge-minded Toledo. Keep in mind, Ball State has been struggling for an extended stretch. The Cardinals have lost 9 of their last 13 games SU and 10 of their last 13 ATS. Ball State has been held under 40% from the field in 3 straight games and has shot 19% from 3-point land in their last 3 games as well. In other words, the Cardinals are slumping badly. The Rockets are offering significant value here because they are on an 0-3 ATS run at the betting window and that has the betting markets holding a negative opinion of them at the moment. Keep in mind this is a Toledo team that has already surpassed the 20 win mark this season. Additionally, since early January back to back losses to Ball State and Buffalo, the Rockets have won 9 of their past 12 games! Toledo is 4-2 SU and ATS in their last 6 road games. When off a SU win versus a conference foe this season, the Rockets have gone 6-2 SU and ATS. The Cardinals are 2-8 ATS when off a game in which they scored 60 or less points. That includes Ball State going 0-3 ATS and SU this season in this situation. More of the same here. 10* TOLEDO |
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02-25-19 | 76ers +1.5 v. Pelicans | 111-110 | Win | 102 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Game #575 Monday 8* Philadelphia 76'ers (+) @ New Orleans Pelicans @ 8:05 ET - Yes the Sixers are without Joel Embiid right now but this is still a team that is loaded with talent and yet coming off an embarrassing home loss. The 76ers lost to Portland by 15 points on Saturday. In other other words Philly is going to be read to go here. The earliest line on this game had Philadelphia favored by 1.5 points but now they are a dog by 1.5 points. As long-time followers know I love going against line moves like this and the set up here is very strong. Note that the Sixers are 9-2 ATS (and 10-1 SU!) this season when off a loss by a double digit margin. As for the Pelicans, if they win this game (by looking at the low number) odds are they get the cover. In other words, outside of a 1-point win, any Charlotte win would also be a cover based on this number. Why is that significant? Because the Pelicans are coming off a win here and they have not followed a SU win with a win and cover after ANY of their last 6 wins! Not only is that 0-6 run working in our favor here (and the Sixers 10-1 run favoring us too) but also note the simple fact that the Pelicans had lost 11 of their last 16 games before beating the Lakers Friday. New Orleans is also 1-6 SU this season when off an upset win as an underdog. From a situational standpoint, this is a great situation filled with value. 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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02-25-19 | Warriors v. Hornets OVER 233.5 | Top | 121-110 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
Early Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #565 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Charlotte Hornets vs Golden State Warriors @ 7:05 ET - The Warriors are fired up off a loss in which they scored 112 points. That point total may not seem that bad but, keep in mind, Golden State entered that game having averaged 125 points per game their 4 prior home games. Now the Warriors are on the road and ready to run and gun their way to their typical success. I expect the result to be a solid over here at Charlotte. The Hornets have gone over the total in their last 3 games. Also, in home games, Charlotte is on a 4-0 run to the over and has averaged 119.5 points per game in those 4 contests as a host. The Hornets are 5-2 to the over this season against Pacific Division opponents and I look for Charlotte to improve to 8-4 to the over this season when off an upset loss as a favorite. Keep in mind, like the Warriors, the Hornets are off an outright loss as a favorite in their Saturday game. As for Golden State, the over is 13-5 when they are facing a team with a losing record this season. Also, the Warriors are 5-1 to the over this season against Southeast Division opponents and 15-8 to the over in road games with a posted total of 220 points or more. 10* OVER the total in Charlotte |
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02-25-19 | Notre Dame v. Florida State -12.5 | Top | 61-68 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #862 Monday 10* Top Play Florida State Seminoles (-) vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ 7 ET - I successfully played against the Noles on Saturday with North Carolina and the Tar Heels delivered the beating I expected. Now it is the Seminoles turn, however, to be on the right side of a thrashing. To many bettors this line will look to big but Florida State should win this game by 20. Certainly FSU is fired up and they have but one loss on their home floor this season while Notre Dame has managed only 2 road wins this season. You can see who is very likely to win this game but, now, what about the all-important cover? As long-time followers know I rarely lay big points. When I do it has to be a situation where my team is not going to take their foot off the gas. That is the case here. Florida State didn't just lose on Saturday, they got embarrassed. Back home now with a quick turnaround chance to redeem themselves and with the eyes of the College Basketball World on them, the Seminoles are going to put on a show in this one! They are highly talented, so much moreso than the Irish, and had won 8 in a row SU (7-1 ATS) prior to the loss to UNC. As for Notre Dame, they are on a 3-11 SU run and 4-11 ATS run. 3 of their last 6 losses have come by 15 points or more. The Seminoles last 3 wins all came by 13 points or more. The average margin of those victories was 19 points. This line was as high as 13.5 and has dropped to a 12.5 in early market activity. I like the value here in a game I expect FSU to win by 20. The Fighting Irish are 3-9 ATS last 12 times they were off a game in which they were held to 60 points or less. The Seminoles are a long-term 9-4 ATS as a home favorite in a range of 12.5 to 15 points. 10* FLORIDA STATE |
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02-24-19 | Spurs -8.5 v. Knicks | Top | 118-130 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #559 Sunday 10* Top Play San Antonio Spurs (-) @ New York Knicks @ 7:35 ET - The Knicks are the worst team in the NBA. Yes, this is a significant number of points to lay on the road, especially with a team that has been struggling ATS. However, the Spurs did play quite well at Toronto Friday and that is why they got the cover and very nearly got the outright win. Keep in mind that was with LaMarcus Aldridge scoring only 6 points and certainly he was not himself in that game. Aldridge has been upgraded to probable for this game. Considering he is highly likely to play much better and considering the Spurs are hungry for a win and facing an awful Knicks team, you can see why I am expecting a road win by a double digit margin in this one. The Spurs are on an 18-9 ATS run in Sunday games including 4-2 ATS this season. San Antonio is on an 18-8 ATS run against Atlantic Division foes including 5-1 ATS this season. Even though the Knicks are off a double digit loss and would love to bounce back here, note that New York is 9-19 ATS this season when they are off a game which they lost by a margin of 10 points or more. Note also that this will be New York's 29th home game this season. So far the Knicks have only 9 ATS covers this season on their home floor! The Spurs are hungry and they know they need this game tonight as tomorrow's game at Brooklyn is a much tougher match-up than this one. Coach Gregg Popovich has the troops ready for this one. 10* SAN ANTONIO |
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02-24-19 | Magic +9.5 v. Raptors | 113-98 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #555 Sunday 8* Orlando Magic (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 3:35 ET - The Raptors are off a revenge minded win over the Spurs on Friday. It was a hard-fought game and you know former Spurs Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green wanted that game badly. Now the Raptors have another revenge game here but it is not nearly as motivating as the game against the Spurs was. That said, once again I look for a SU win for the Raptors but a non-covering win just like we saw in the game versus San Antonio on Friday. The fact is that Toronto is known for playing to the level of their competition. The Raptors enter this game having failed to cover 4 straight games. Also, Orlando has covered both match-ups this season and the Magic enter this game with plenty of confidence. That's because Orlando, prior to a tight 1-point home loss to Chicago on Friday, had won and covered 5 straight games and 7 of their last 8. The Magic are 8-2 ATS in Sunday games this season and also a superb 10-1 ATS versus Atlantic Division opponents this season. Not only are the Raptors off a huge win versus the Spurs, they have a massive game (versus Boston) on deck for Tuesday. From a situational perspective this is a horrible spot for Toronto. Also note that the Raptors are 5-12 ATS this season when off a game where they allowed 115 points or more. 8* ORLANDO |
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02-24-19 | Villanova v. Xavier OVER 136 | Top | 54-66 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach CBB Game #827 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Xavier Musketeers vs Villanova Wildcats @ 1:30 ET - Great value with this low total in my opinion. Each of the last 3 meetings between these teams have totaled at least 154 points and the posted total on this one has gone from a 137.5 to a 136 as of early game day morning. I like the fact that Villanova is off back to back losses (and has lost 3 of their last 4 games) and is very hungry for a strong performance. The Wildcats won't take their foot off the gas in this game even if they end up getting a double digit lead. Based on the current line (Nova -6), you can see that is a distinct possibility. As for Xavier, they aren't exactly known for their defense. The Musketeers are allowing 71.6 points per game this season. Also, Xavier has allowed an average of 90 points per game in their last 3 games against the Wildcats. That might have you wondering if one of those games went to OT. No, none of the 3 games were OT games. Musketeers simply won't be able to stop the fired up Wildcats here but I do look for Xavier to score very well. The Musketeers are averaging 75.5 points per game at home this season and the Wildcats defense has not been as strong this season. Villanova is allowing an average of 74 points per game in their last 6 road games! The over is 7-3 this season in Wildcats road games. Also, when off a loss in conference action, Villanova is 6-3 to the over their last 9 games. Xavier is 4-1 to the over this season when off a win in conference action and they come into this game with some added confidence thanks to a 3-game winning streak. Also, the Musketeers are 9-4 to the over their last 13 games with a posted total in the 130s. Look for another one here! 10* OVER the total in Xavier |
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02-24-19 | SMU v. UCF -6.5 | 48-95 | Win | 100 | 5 h 33 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #822 Sunday 8* Central Florida Knights (-) vs SMU Mustangs @ Noon ET - This line opened up at a 7.5 and has now dropped to as low as a 6.5 as of early game day morning. That means additional value here in what is a great spot for Central Florida. The Knights are coming off a loss at Cincinnati. That certainly holds significance here as UCF has not lost back to back games all season long! Central Florida did get the cover as a dog at Cincinnati but fell short of the SU win but the Knights have now covered 4 in a row ATS. They certainly have been heading the opposite direction of SMU. While the Mustangs are off a win and cover versus Connecticut Thursday, Southern Methodist had previously lost 7 of their last 8 SU and 9 of their last 11 ATS! Though the Mustangs have revenge here, they are 0-4 ATS when playing with home loss revenge this season. SMU is also 0-4 ATS when off a win in conference action! The Knights are a fantastic 29-3 SU and 21-9-2 ATS long-term when a home favorite in a range of 6.5 to 9 points. Lay the points here. 8* CENTRAL FLORIDA |
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02-23-19 | Rockets v. Warriors OVER 233 | Top | 118-112 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #549 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets @ 8:35 ET - We're getting line value here with the total dropping from 237.5 yesterday afternoon to 233 this morning. Part of the reason for the line move is the James Harden injury situation. Should he not play here I still am fully comfortable with this play. However, I really would be surprised if the does not go. Facing the Warriors in a huge game and coming off a loss Thursday - so a day of rest in between - look for Harden to go here. For the next two weeks after this game the Rockets will be facing Eastern Conference teams. Truly this is Houston's last big game for awhile. Not only are they facing the World Champs, it is the same team that knocked them out of the playoffs last season. This is a double revenge spot however for the Warriors as Houston has gotten the best of them in each of the first two meetings this season. The last meeting went over the total and, though it did go to overtime, keep in mind the teams did have 238 at the end of regulation. Look for another wild one Saturday night on ABC. Also, the over is 8-3 this season in Rockets games against Pacific Division opponents. I look for the Warriors over to improve to 11-6 this season when they are playing a game with revenge. After losing both regular season match-ups this season, the Warriors are NOT going to take their foot off the gas here no matter what the score is. So take advantage of the drop on this total and look for a high-scoring shootout! 10* OVER the total in Golden State |
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02-23-19 | Delaware v. Drexel -3 | Top | 60-68 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
PA Insider GOW - Rickenbach CBB Game #694 Saturday 10* Top Play Drexel Dragons (-) vs Delaware Blue Hens @ 5 ET - One of the Blue Hens best players is guard Kevin Anderson. Keep in mind he was a Rookie of the Year for the Colonial Athletic Association. Anderson, a sophomore, has missed the past two games with a knee injury. He is listed as questionable here but even if Anderson does play how effective would he be? Keep in mind he has a history of knee problems as he missed all but 11 games of his rookie season because of a knee injury. Delaware certainly wants to be careful with him and his absence or ineffectiveness really hurts the Blue Hens. They have been without him the past two games and they had to go to double OT to beat a bad Towson team and then they followed that up by losing to James Madison. The Blue Hens beat the Dragons earlier this season at Delaware but only by a single point and Anderson had 16 points in that one point win. Without Anderson, or with him limited, the Blue Hens certainly could be in trouble with the rematch being at Drexel. The home team is a perfect 7-0 SU in this series. Granted there have been some tight wins in that run but the Dragons are favored by just 3 points here. That certainly bears mentioning as 9 of Delaware's 12 losses this season have come by 6 or more points this season. As for Drexel wins, only 1 of the 12 has come by a margin of less than 4 points. Look for the Blue Hens to drop to 2-7 ATS this season in Saturday games. The Dragons are 8-1 SU and ATS as a favorite this season! 10* DREXEL |
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02-23-19 | Florida State v. North Carolina -7 | 59-77 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #668 Saturday 8* North Carolina Tar Heels (-) vs Florida State Seminoles @ 3:45 PM ET - This is classic case of misguided market perception. It also follows the zig zag theory where when the markets go one way it is actually best to go the other way. In this case, the entire sports betting world watched North Caroline beat Duke on Wednesday so, of course, now everyone wants to fade the Tar Heels in this perceived "flat spot". There are multiple problems with that theory. First off, there is no way in hell that UNC is going to be flat when they're on their home floor and facing a highly regarded and ranked opponent. Adding fuel to the fire for North Carolina here is the fact that they lost to FSU last season. It was a painful loss too as the Heels simply couldn't make their shots. UNC had TWENTY more shots from the field than the Seminoles but lost the game by a single point due to a rare off shooting night. Now, instead of playing this game at Florida State, the Tar Heels get the Noles at home. Contrary to market perception here (line opened at 8 and and has dropped as low as 6.5) there is plenty of reasoning to expect the Tar Heels win this game by a double digit margin in a home blowout! The Seminoles are a quality team for sure but they're averaging 73 points per game on the road this season and North Carolina is averaging 89 points per game at home this season. That's a 16-point variance and that is a margin of victory I expect here for the Tar Heels. Even if slightly sluggish in first half (off the Duke win) the Heels will be reminded at halftime of what happened at Florida State last season. 8* NORTH CAROLINA |
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02-23-19 | Indiana State v. Missouri State OVER 130 | Top | 61-67 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 48 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Game #631 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Missouri State Bears vs Indiana State Sycamores @ 2 ET - This total opened up in the 135 range and has dropped to the 130 range. When these teams met last month the posted total was 148. This is the type of major adjustment I look for. Of course the Bears have been trending under all season long but the odds makers factored that into their opening number (135) already. Now the betting markets have forced the total to adjust another 5 points. This is how you get extra value in a situation like this because the numbers don't bear out that this game will finish below 130. The Sycamores are off a RARE gem on defense where they allowed just 50 points but that game was at home. In their last 4 road games, Indiana State has allowed an average of 80.5 points per game! Missouri State is off an embarrassing 63-43 home loss. That's right, the Bears scored just 43 points in their most recent game and it was at home. Prior to that Missouri State had scored at least 65 points in each of their 4 prior games. So here you have a situation where the road team is off one of their best defensive performances (rare) of the season and the home team is off one of their worst offensive performances (rare) of the season. The result here is tremendous line value. The first meeting this season stayed under the total but prior to that these teams had gone over in 5 straight meetings. Also, the over is 5-1 the last 6 times the Bears were the host in this series. 10* OVER the total in Missouri State |
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02-23-19 | Blazers v. 76ers -2 | 130-115 | Loss | -109 | 3 h 16 m | Show | |
PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Game #532 Saturday 8* Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Portland Trail Blazers @ 1:05 ET - The home team has won 8 straight games in this series. Couple that with the fact that this line is a very short number (thanks to Joel Embiid being out) and you have great value with the home side in this match-up. Keep in mind the Sixers also have revenge here from being thoroughly embarrassed at Portland in late December. The 76ers were down 29 points at the half and lost that game by a margin of 34 points. Philly is 24-7 SU at home this season. The Trail Blazers are on a 9-16 ATS run in February games and, prior to their win at Brooklyn Thursday, had lost 5 of their last 7 road games both SU and ATS. 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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02-22-19 | Nuggets v. Mavs OVER 218.5 | Top | 114-104 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #527 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Dallas Mavericks vs Denver Nuggets @ 8:35 ET - The Nuggets are a solid 16-8 to the over in their last 24 games. This total opened up at a 220 and has dropped to a 218.5 as of early this morning. We're getting good value here considering that the last two meetings between these teams in Dallas went over the total. Also, in their only meeting so far this season (at Denver) the teams combined for 244 points (and had 143 at the half). Don't be surprised if another shootout erupts tonight as I also like overs when it is the weaker team that is at home. In this case that is the Mavericks of course and, as you would expect, they shoot better when at home. As for Denver, they are one of the top teams in the league and score quite well most nights on anybody anywhere! The over is 10-4 in the Nuggets last 14 games against teams that are allowing an average of 106 or more on the season. The over is 20-10 in Denver's last 30 February games. All signs point to the over improving to 3-0 in the Mavs last 3 games. 10* OVER the total in Dallas |
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02-22-19 | Clippers v. Grizzlies +2 | 112-106 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 52 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #526 Friday 8* Memphis Grizzlies (+) vs Los Angeles Clippers @ 8:05 ET - As of early this morning the Clippers are favored by as little as a point and a half. Keep in mind, Los Angeles is currently in a playoff spot and 5 games above .500 while the Grizzlies are 13 games under .500 and next to last in the Western Conference. The odds makers must be "way off" on this one, right? Long-time followers know how I feel about that, as a general rule, and I am going contrarian here and going with the "ugly home dog" theory in this one. In terms of support for this play, Memphis is 3-2 SU (5-0 ATS!) in their last 5 home games. Overall the Grizzlies are on a solid 7-2-1 ATS run. The Clippers are off a SU (and ATS) win and they've been in a pattern of "win one / lose one" for awhile. Also, since the calendar turned the page to 2019, LA has managed only 2 ATS win streaks, each just 3 games. The home team has won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these teams. The Clippers had a blowout 134-107 win versus Phoenix before the All Star break and are a long-term 5-11 ATS when off a game in which they scored 130 points or more. 8* MEMPHIS |
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02-22-19 | Columbia v. Pennsylvania -7.5 | Top | 79-77 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach CBB Game #860 Friday 10* Top Play Penn Quakers (-) vs Columbia Lions @ 8 ET - The Quakers are still in the hunt for finishing in the top 4 of the Ivy League and qualifying for their post-season tourney. The Lions are the worst team in the conference by far. With Penn also entering this game off a tough OT loss to Harvard last week, the set up is perfect here for a home blowout win. Admittedly the Quakers have underachieved in Ivy League action thus far but they entered last weekend having had just one home game in league action thus far. Penn's schedule has been tough to say the least. They nearly pulled off the much-needed 2-0 sweep last weekend but back to back OT games (they beat Dartmouth in OT Friday) proved to be too much as you would expect. The Crimson are a tough team to face in a spot like that. Penn was 6-2 at home prior to losing to Harvard and now will take advantage of a facing a Columbia team that is just 1-8 in road games this season. I am well aware of the fact that the points seem high here but we've now seen this line drop from a 9 to a 7.5 and we're being offered great value here as the Quakers are ready for the much needed big blowout win that can keep their season alive. Keep in mind, Penn gets Cornell (5-3 in league action) tomorrow! I am well aware of the fact that both these teams are known for playing in tight games but I am calling for a win by double digits here as the Lions have shot poorly in back to back games and those were both at home! As for the Quakers, they had shot very well in 3 of their 4 games prior to the tough back to back OT situation. The hot shooting resumes tonight for the home team. 10* PENN |
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02-22-19 | Harvard v. Brown +2 | 79-88 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #854 Friday 8* Brown Bears (+) vs Harvard Crimson @ 7 ET - This line was as low as a pick'em and has now moved as high as a -2.5 on Harvard as of early this morning. The reason for the move is that the Crimson have dominated the Bears not just in recent seasons but an entire decade. Considering that as well as the fact that Harvard is 6-2 in Ivy League action and Brown is only 3-5 in conference action this season, a major mistake has been made here by the odds makers, right? Of course long-time followers know how I feel about that and the fact is that the Bears have been viewing this game as the perfect opportunity to finally end their long losing streak against Harvard. Keep in mind, the Crimson are only 5-6 on the road this season while Brown is a solid 9-2 at home. Also, Harvard's most recent game was an emotional OT win over Penn. Additionally, the Crimson have a huge game on deck tomorrow at Yale. Of course the Bulldogs have the best record (7-1) in the Ivy League and it will not be a surprise to see Harvard looking right past a Brown team they have dominated. Lets be honest here...the concern for the Crimson is already the 1-2 battle between themselves and Yale tomorrow. Perfect scenario for an upset win here. 8* BROWN |
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02-21-19 | Heat v. 76ers -6.5 | Top | 102-106 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Game #502 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Miami Heat @ 7:05 ET - The fact that the Sixers are without Joel Embiid for this one is keeping this line to a very manageable number considering Philly is on their home floor and the Heat have been struggling. The 76ers, even without Embiid, are still the much more talented team here. Philadelphia has Ben Simmons, Tobias Harris, Jimmy Butler, and JJ Redick. Additionally, the Sixers new reserve big man Boban Marjanovic will step up with Embiid being out. Philly is 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS the last 7 times they've hosted Miami. Of course the Heat have revenge here as they were ousted from the playoffs by the Sixers last spring but, keep in mind, they had that revenge on their mind earlier this season too when they hosted the 76ers and yet they still lost by double digits at Miami! The Heat enter this game having lost 6 of their past 8 games. The Sixers are off a win and have won 14 of 21 in the New Year. Philly did lose their most recent home game but had won 9 of 12 prior on their home floor. 8 of the 76ers last 9 wins have come by 7 or more points and I see every reason to expect another win by at least that margin tonight! 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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02-21-19 | UCF +8 v. Cincinnati | 55-60 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #601 Thursday Central Florida Knights (+) @ Cincinnati Bearcats @ 7 ET - Losing is one thing...getting completely annihilated is another thing altogether. The last time the Knights visited Cincinnati they found themselves down 33-13 at the half. UCF went on to lose that game 77 to 40. Central Florida went 0 for 14 from three point land and the Bearcats made 10 threes. Simply put, it was just one of those nights that can happen from time to time but, rest assured, the Knights haven't forgotten and they look to atone for that loss here. This is the first time these teams have met since that game and it is again in Cincinnati. While I don't necessarily expect an outright upset win here in terms of revenge for UCF, I do expect Central Florida to be much more competitive. That means great line value here with the spread on this game currently sitting at +8. Keep in mind, even though Cincinnati is 9-1 SU their last 10 games, the Bearcats only won 3 of those games by more than 8 points and one of those was by 11 and another by 10. In other words, there is every reason to believe that UCF will be "right there" with this number throughout this game and I believe their highly motivated effort means this one is decided by more than a half-dozen points. The Knights are allowing just 61.8 points per game on the road this season! You can tell by the low total on this game (has dipped into the 120s) that a tight, defensive struggle is quite likely which means even more value with the generous points being offered. 8* CENTRAL FLORIDA |
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02-21-19 | Michigan v. Minnesota OVER 131.5 | Top | 69-60 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Game #607 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Michigan Wolverines @ 7 ET - The Wolverines are known for defense. However, Michigan also has been known for having some sub-par performances on the road. That said, the Golden Gophers offensive production also has been much better when at home. Combining those factors we've got great value here with a low total posted on this game. The first meeting between these teams this season stayed well under the total but both teams had horrible shooting nights. Prior to that game however, the over was 3-0 in the 3 prior meetings and those games averaged 157 points. Now, consider this as well. The total in the first game between these teams was posted at 137. Now, because of the low-scoring result in that match-up, we're seeing totals as low as 131.5 for this game as of early this morning. This is more than 5 points less than the first match-up even though the fact that this game is at Minnesota means it should be higher scoring. Keep in mind, the over is 8-4 the last 12 times the Golden Gophers have hosted the Wolverines. Also, Michigan has allowed 71.3 points per game in their last 3 road games. As for Minnesota, they've had one ugly recent performance at home versus Wisconsin. However, other than that, the Golden Gophers have averaged 80.3 points per game in their last 6 home games! Minnesota is a much more confident team when at home and their shooting stats show that. Also, the over is 10-5 in Golden Gophers home games this season. More of the same expected here. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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02-20-19 | Massachusetts v. George Washington OVER 136 | Top | 67-79 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #801 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Massachusetts Minutemen vs George Washington Colonials @ 7 ET - This is a type of late-season match-up that I look for when looking for games that should turn into a shootout. Here you have two teams both have disappointing seasons, with a history of high-scoring games when they meet, both shooting the ball well of late, and both struggling on the defensive end of late. Seriously, who is really to going to play intense defense here? There is just no high motivation for defense in this match-up and the 'kicker' for me was confirming that UMass guard Luwane Pipkins (hamstring) did upgraded from questionable to probable. I do expect him to be good to go here. The over is a perfect 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these teams and all 5 games totaled at least 150 points. The Minutemen have shot over 40% from three point land in their last 3 games combined. However, Massachusetts has allowed 80 points or more in 2 of their last 3 games and they have allowed red hot hot shooting for their opponents in each of their last 3 games (despite the Davidson game being an ugly score, the shooting was there). As for George Washington, they've shot 40% or better from three point land in 3 straight games and all 3 went over the total. The Colonials, however, have allowed 82.3 points per game in their last 3 games as they surrendered hot shooting over this 3-game stretch. The over is 15-8 when UMass is off a game in which they allowed 80 or more points. Also, February games for the Minutemen are on a 15-3 run to the over. The over is 9-3 this season in George Washington games with a posted total in the 130s. Also, the Colonials are 10-2 to the over when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games. Ideal set-up here for a shootout. 10* OVER the total in George Washington |
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02-20-19 | Villanova -5.5 v. Georgetown | 73-85 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
PA Insider - Rickenbach CBB Game #781 Wednesday 8* Villanova Wildcats (-) @ Georgetown Hoyas @ 6:30 ET - The Wildcats are off a loss at St John's Sunday where they blew a huge first half lead. The Red Storm, in my opinion, are well-coached and they are also very physical and tough. That was the difference in the 2nd half of that game (I had St John's as a premium pick in that one). This match-up is completely different and the results show it. Villanova has thoroughly dominated Georgetown time and time again in recent years. The Wildcats have a huge coaching edge with Jay Wright over the Hoyas Patrick Ewing. Also, Georgetown has the misfortune of facing Nova when they are angry off a loss. The Wildcats are 7-1 ATS this season when off an ATS loss and only lost back to back games ATS once this season and that was three months ago! The Hoyas could be rusty here as they haven't played in a week while the Wildcats are going to hit the floor running and should be firing on all cylinders from the opening tip. Villanova can't wait to get back on the floor after what happened at St John's. The Wildcats are 30-16 ATS in games with a posted total in the 140s and 53-30 ATS in games against teams with a winning record. Georgetown is playing this game with road loss revenge but that is a situation that has seen them go 6-14 ATS. Also, the Hoyas are on a horrific 13-31 ATS run in home games. Road rout expected here. 8* VILLANOVA |
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02-19-19 | Maryland v. Iowa OVER 147 | Top | 66-65 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
Big Ten Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #625 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Iowa Hawkeyes vs Maryland Terrapins @ 8 ET - The earliest total that first popped up on this game was a 151.5 and now, as of early game day morning, the total has dropped to as low as a 147 in some books. I am happy to grab the extra value here. The over is 2-1 in the last 3 meetings between these teams and the lone under did total 150 points. In other words, at the current number posted on this game, the over would be a perfect 3-0 in the last 3 meetings. Look for the over to improve to 7-4 the last 11 times that Maryland has been on the road with a line ranging from a pick'em to a +3. The Terrapins have not had an over since mid-January - a stretch of NINE straight games. Their highest posted O/U in their last 5 games has been a 138. So the odds makers were fools to set this total at 151.5 as an opener, right? You guys know how I feel about this. When something looks "off" to the betting public it is usually for good reason! Keep in mind, Iowa is at home here and loaded with confidence as they continue to find ways to win games even when it takes late game "magic". That said, the Hawkeyes will continue to play at a fast pace here and will dictate the pace of this game with the Terps. Iowa's most recent game, at Rutgers, resulted in an under, but the over was 5-2 in the Hawkeyes 7 prior games. That's because Iowa averaged 81 points per game during that stretch and that is perfectly in line with their season average for points per game! The Hawkeyes are one of the highest-scoring teams in the Big Ten and are averaging 83.3 points per game at home this season. The over is 7-1 the last 8 times the Hawkeyes have been at home with their line ranging from a pick'em to a -3. Look for a shootout here. 10* OVER the total in Iowa |
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02-19-19 | Dayton +3.5 v. Davidson | 74-73 | Win | 100 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #601 Tuesday 8* Dayton Flyers (+) @ Davidson Wildcats @ 6 ET - The Wildcats are 12-0 at home this season and opened up as low as a 2.5 point favorite in this one. The current line on Davidson, no surprise to me, is currently up to 3.5 early game day morning. I would not be surprised if it goes higher. As usual I am in the contrarian position here and simply reminding you that the odds makers are very sharp. They opened this one with a very low number on the Cats for the same reason I like the Flyers in this match-up. That is, Dayton has a great shot at the upset here. Note that it has been over a month since Davidson hosted an Atlantic Ten team as strong as this Flyers team. The Wildcats won their two toughest home games in conference action but both were in early January and both involved their opponents have uncharacteristically poor shooting nights from three point land. Davidson beat VCU and Duquesne but the Rams and Dukes combined to shoot about 20% from beyond the arc and the Wildcats won those two games by an average margin of just 5.5 points. The point is that now Davidson hosts a strong Dayton team that is really "feeling it" right now in terms of their shooting. The Flyers have shot "lights out", including from downtown, in each of their last two games. Also, Dayton has built up some road confidence thanks to going 3-1 in their last 4 road games and with the two most recent road wins coming by an average margin of 27 points per game! The Flyers are off a 1-point loss at VCU and that holds significance here as they are 4-0 (SU and ATS) the last 4 times they were off a SU loss. 8* DAYTON |
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02-18-19 | Illinois v. Wisconsin OVER 135 | Top | 58-64 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
TV Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #853 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Wisconsin Badgers vs Illinois Illini @ 8 ET - The Illini are off a low-scoring upset win at Ohio State. Illinois is now 6-3 SU in their last 9 games. Also, prior to that rare low-scoring result with the Buckeyes, the Illini were on a 7-2 run to the over in their 9 previous games. One of the few ugly games during that stretch was when they lost at home to Wisconsin. In fact, other than the low-scoring win over the Buckeyes and the low-scoring loss to the Buckeyes, the Illini have scored 71 points or more in all their games since mid-January. In fact, in those 7 games Ilinois has averaged 81 points per game. Keep in mind, versus Wisconsin, the Illini should have scored just fine but they were completely off in that one. Illinois shot just 35.5% from the field, 54.5% from the free throw line, and 19% from three point land! Not only that but the Badgers Ethan Happ was limited by foul trouble and had one of his worst games of the season. Note that, even with all that, the game still totaled 132 points! That is why I feel we're getting great line value here with the low total posted on this one. Illinois is playing with a lot more confidence now than they were a month ago when these teams met in Champaign. I expect the Illini to get their fair share of points as a result but, keep in mind, this is still a team that is allowing 77 points per game on the road this season. The strength of Illinois certainly is not defense. Also, the Badgers have long been known for dominating the Illini and have scored an average of 75 points in the last 3 meetings. Wisconsin is 4-1 to the over when playing with 5 or 6 days of rest between games. The Badgers are 4-1 to the over as a home favorite in a range of 9.5 to 12 points. Illinois is 4-1 to the over as a road dog in a range of 9.5 to 12 points. 10* OVER the total in Wisconsin |
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02-18-19 | Virginia v. Virginia Tech +6.5 | 64-58 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #852 Monday 8* Virginia Tech Hockies (+) vs Virginia Cavaliers @ 7 ET - This line opened up as low as Virginia -3.5 but, as of early Monday morning, the line is now up to as high as -6.5 on the Cavaliers. That is because the Hokies have no chance in this match-up. I am being sarcastic of course. I love fading line moves like this and am very happy to be getting 3 more points than what the odds makers said I should be getting with Virginia Tech. You get my point? Grab the points here and take advantage of the extra points being offered! Why? First off the Hokies get this rematch at home. Yes Virginia Tech got blasted at Virginia in mid-January but the Hokies have been playing better defense of late. Also, they've gone to a "matchup zone" type of defense that has helped limit opponents scoring. Virginia Tech is sure to employ plenty of that again in this match-up and, keep in mind, the Cavaliers just faced a type of zone defense against Notre Dame Saturday and they barely won the game. Not only did the Cavs beat the Fighting Irish by only 6 points, that game was a home game for Virginia. They face a much tougher task here and I feel strongly that the Cavaliers will be locked into a fierce battle just to avoid the upset tonight let alone win this game by more than a half dozen points! You knew Virginia's hot ATS run couldn't last all season and, sure enough, they are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games. Virginia Tech is 5-0 SU and ATS the past two seasons when revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more. Also, the Hokies are 4-1 SU and ATS the past two seasons as a home dog of 3.5 to 6 points. Now we're even seeing 6.5 starting to pop up on this one. I'll take it! 8* VIRGINIA TECH |
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02-17-19 | Villanova v. St. John's +4 | Top | 65-71 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach CBB Game #828 Sunday 10* Top Play St John's Red Storm (+) vs Villanova Wildcats @ 5 ET - Great line value here as a line that opened up as low as a -1.5 on Villanova is all the way up to as a high as a -4 on the Wildcats as of early Sunday morning. This is great home dog line value being offered to the Red Storm. While it is true that St John's lost the first meeting this season (at Villanova), the Red Storm actually had a double digit lead in the 2nd half of that game! Also, though the Wildcats are off an 18-point win versus Providence that game was much closer than that for much of the contest. In their prior game, Nova had to rally to still lose by a point at Marquette. The point is that the Cats continue to be a covering machine but they've truly been quite fortunate in recent contests and here is where that luck runs out. I actually expect an outright upset here for the Red Storm but, of course, am grabbing the generous points being offered as added insurance. Note that St John's Shamorie Ponds has had great success against the Wildcats in his career and also is known for huge performances in big games. Additionally, he is coming off a rare poor game and the fact that the Red Storm still won that game (versus Butler) says a lot. The fact is that St John's is very talented (much more than just Ponds) and they also play physical basketball and the Wildcats have been having trouble on the boards for long stretches in recent games. This one will be a fierce battle and I see the Red Storm taking advantage of this marquee opportunity on their home floor against a ranked rival. 10* ST JOHN'S |
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02-17-19 | Seton Hall v. Creighton -4 | 81-75 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 18 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #822 Sunday 8* Creighton Bluejays (-) vs Seton Hall Pirates @ 3 ET - This is a revenge game for the Bluejays as they lost at Seton Hall last Saturday. That defeat is a part of a 3-game losing streak that has seen Creighton struggle with a shooting slump. However, all 3 games were on the road. Keep in mind, the Bluejays are a much better shooting team when at home. In fact, Creighton won their most recent home game 76-54 versus Xavier behind a huge shooting performance at home. The Bluejays have been playing well defensively. Look for that to continue here and then the difference in the game will be Creighton again finding their shooting stroke at home. The Bluejays are off back to back ATS losses but previously had covered 4 of their last 5 games. The Pirates enter this game on a 5-game losing streak in road games. The average margin of defeat for Seton Hall in road games this year is 11 points. A double digit loss is what I expect in this one as well based on the situational aspects of this match-up. 8* CREIGHTON |
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02-17-19 | Wichita State v. Cincinnati OVER 132 | 62-72 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #813 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Cincinnati Bearcats vs Wichita State Shockers @ 1 ET - The Bearcats are in a sandwich game situation as they are off a huge game at Houston and have a big game versus Central Florida on deck. This type of situation is unlikely to bring forth a great effort on the defensive end from Cincinnati. However, I do expect plenty of points here from the Bearcats at they are off a loss (SU and ATS) to the Cougars and they are 6-2 to the over the last 8 times they were off an ATS loss. Cincinnati is averaging 77.7 points per game when off an ATS loss and they just had their lowest scoring game (58 points) of the season and will be ready to respond here. The only time the Bearcats were held under 60 points this season, they responded to the 59-point effort by scoring 93 points! The Shockers enter this game off back to back unders but, prior to that, were on a 6-3 run to the over. Wichita State enters this contest with some added confidence as they've won 4 straight games (SU and ATS). The Shockers have averaged 76.5 points per game during this 4-game winning streak. You can see why I am expecting plenty of points in this one. Their first meeting this season totaled only 121 points and that is helping to keep this total lower than it should be. These two teams are in entirely different situations heading into this match-up in comparison with the first meeting. The result will be a much higher scoring game in the rematch. 8* OVER the total in Cincinnati |
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02-16-19 | Fresno State v. New Mexico OVER 147.5 | Top | 81-73 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #719 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New Mexico Lobos vs Fresno State Bulldogs @ 7 ET - The over is a perfect 3-0 in the last 3 meetings between these teams. The first meeting this season at Fresno State saw the Lobos score 70 points despite shooting only 31.9% from the field. Both teams were horrible from beyond the arc in that game too as they combined for a ridiculously bad 12 of 57 performance from three point land. The point is that, even with all that poor shooting, the game totaled 152 points. Why? Because these teams are known for playing at a great pace in their meetings and, keep in mind, the two prior meetings saw those games average 175 points! This is also the type of situation I love to look for with overs. You have the lesser team, New Mexico, at home and seeking revenge. The Lobos are averaging 80 points per game at home this season. They'll look to win this game with a red hot shooting night and they are known to "run and gun" at home. Of course Fresno State is happy to play the same pace here as they are off a low-scoring win versus Boise State but the Bulldogs previously scored an average of 80 points per game in their 4 prior games. The Lobos confidence at home is very high right now as they have scored 83 points or more in 4 of their 6 home games since the 1st of the year. Look for the over to improve to 4-1 this season in Lobos games with a posted total in the 140s this season. The over is a perfect 3-0 the last 3 times Fresno State has played at New Mexico. The Lobos give the Bulldogs all they can handle here and the result is a shootout. 10* OVER the total in New Mexico |
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02-16-19 | La Salle +7.5 v. St. Louis | 49-62 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
PA Insider - Rickenbach CBB Game #687 Saturday 8* La Salle Explorers (+) @ St Louis Billikens @ 5 ET - Five weeks ago La Salle hosted St Louis and the line was the Billikens -4.5 on the road. Now they are at home hosting the Explorers so one would naturally expect St Louis to be favored by double digits here. They are not and, trust me, it is no mistake. This is a classic case of hot versus cold and I also like the fact that La Salle is healthier now than they were in that mid-January match-up. Additionally, they might get freshman Jack Clark back for this game and he has been a key contributor in limited action this season. The Explorers enter this game having won 5 of their last 6 games. The Billikens are in a letdown spot as they are off a win that snapped a 1-5 stretch (both SU and ATS) and they have a full week off after this game before another big game with Dayton. Will St Louis make the mistake of overlooking La Salle and trying to "coast" in their upcoming break? I would not be surprised to see this one play out exactly like that as the Billkens already won at La Salle this season plus have dominated recent meetings with the Explorers in St Louis. The situational aspects of this one mean that we have great value with the big road dog in this one. The Explorers are 6-1 ATS in road games this season and 4-1 ATS this season when off a win over a conference foe. The Billikens are 3-6 ATS this season after allowing 60 points or less in their prior game. St Louis is also an ugly 6-12 ATS as a favorite this season. 8* LA SALLE |
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02-16-19 | Clemson v. Louisville OVER 131.5 | 55-56 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 44 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #609 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Louisville Cardinals vs Clemson Tigers @ Noon ET - A total that was as high as a 134 has now dropped to as low as a 131.5 as of early Saturday morning and I love the value with the over here. The markets are being influenced by some great efforts on defense in recent Clemson games. However, look for Louisville to dictate the pace of this game at home. The Cardinals are fired up and looking to bounce back off back to back losses including a home loss to Duke. Louisville is averaging 78 points per game this season while the Tigers are averaging 70 points per game on the season. Also, this game is projected to be a rather tight game (current line is Cardinals -4.5) and when you have a tight game late you see more free throws. Both these teams are solid at the free throw line. These teams met at Clemson last season and that game wen over the total and their most recent meeting here at Louisville also resulted in an over. The over is 19-11 when the Tigers are a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points. The over is 5-2 when Louisville is a home favorite in a range of 3.5 to 6 points. Also, the Cardinals are a long-term 33-18 to the over in conference games and 12-6 to the over in February games. These trends continue here. 8* OVER the total in Louisville |
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02-15-19 | St. Joe's +11 v. Davidson | 72-80 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
PA Insider - Rickenbach CBB Game #853 Friday 8* St Joseph's Hawks (+) @ Davidson Wildcats @ 7 ET - This is a revenge game for the Wildcats and they are at the top of the Atlantic Ten standings while the Hawks are down near the bottom. However, this game is likely to prove troublesome for Davidson. They may get their revenge but I expect their win to be by single digits. The Wildcats have a huge game on deck with Dayton. The Flyers are just a game behind Davidson. Though the Wildcats certainly want revenge for their one point loss at St Joseph's last month, the fact is that is hard for Davidson not to already have Dayton on their mind. The Hawks just lost some bench depth with the Lodge injury and he joins an injury list that includes Kimble and Oliva. However, Lodge is a back-up and neither Kimble or Oliva were available for the first game against the Wildcats either. The Hawks are off a horrific shooting effort versus St Bonaventure Tuesday as they were held below 30% from the field. That has happened only twice before this season. Each time, St Joseph's covered their next game. Also, the Hawks allowed 51% from the field. Each of the last 4 times that St Joseph's has allowed 49% or better from the field, they've covered their next game all 4 times! The point is that this is a bounce back spot for the Hawks off a very ugly game and they don't play again for a full week after this one. In other words, St Joseph's is absolutely going to go all out here in a huge effort with a chance to again knock off the team that is at the top of the A-10 standings! The Wildcats are 9-2 SU in Atlantic Ten action but only 2 of those 9 wins have come by more than 11 points. Grab the generous points being offered to the Hawks in this one! 8* ST JOSEPH'S |
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02-15-19 | Buffalo -2.5 v. Toledo | Top | 88-82 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach CBB Game #877 Friday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bulls (-) @ Toledo Rockets @ 7 ET - This is a revenge game for the Rockets and, of course, they are happy to have the rematch at home. However, coming into this season Toledo was projected by most to be only about the 3rd best team in the MAC West. As for the MAC East, Buffalo was expected to be the top team there and they have met those expectations. The point is that the Bulls are doing what was expected of them while the Rockets have overachieved a bit. Overall on the season Buffalo has played a slightly tougher schedule too. These key factors, in my opinion, are combining to give us some solid line value here with the Bulls as a very short road favorite in this one. Sure the Rockets want revenge badly here but, keep in mind, this game is ultra-important to Buffalo too! It is not just about the Bulls being a Top 25 team and wanting to remain in the rankings, it is also the fact that Buffalo is currently battling with Bowling Green for the top spot in the East Division of the MAC. The Rockets have been helped by the fact that they play in the West which is the weaker division of the MAC this season. Also, note that the Bulls are a long-term 23-8 ATS in road games in which their line ranges from pick'em to a -3. As for Toledo, they could be a little rusty here with some extra time off leading into this game and the Rockets have covered just 3 of their last 9 games when they enter a match-up with 5 or 6 days of rest between games. The Bulls are 3-0 SU and ATS in the last 3 meetings between these teams and they make it 4 in a row here. 10* BUFFALO |
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02-14-19 | Hornets v. Magic OVER 214.5 | Top | 89-127 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #523 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Orlando Magic vs Charlotte Hornets @ 7:05 ET - The Hornets are off a loss at Indiana Monday but held the Pacers to just 99 points. The over is a perfect 4-0 the last 4 times Charlotte is off a game in which they held their opponent under 100 points. The Magic are off a big road win at New Orleans where they held the Pelicans to 88 points. The over is a perfect 7-0 the last 7 times Orlando is off a game in which they held their opponents to 90 points or less. The pacing for an over has certainly been there in recent Magic games as they've allowed their opponents more than 90 field goal attempts in 7 of their last 8 games. Also, Orlando has had at least 90 field goal attempts in 7 of its last 9 games. The Hornets have fared extremely well against the Magic in recent seasons and, before being held to just 32.2% from the field by the Pacers Monday, Charlotte had scored 115 points or more in 3 of their last 4 games. Orlando's win at New Orleans was an upset win as they were a dog to the Pelicans. That certainly holds significance here as the Magic are a perfect 11-0 to the over when off an outright win as an underdog. That means we have over trending of a combined 22-0 here supporting this play. 10* OVER the total in Orlando |
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02-14-19 | Drexel v. James Madison OVER 147 | Top | 69-71 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach CBB Game #611 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in James Madison Dukes vs Drexel Dragons @ 7 ET - When Drexel travels away from Philly they have shown a strong tendency for leaving their defense at home! The Dragons have allowed insane numbers on the road: 82.8 ppg, 51.6% from the field, and 42.9% from 3-point land! Another weakness of Drexel is they have a weak bench so their starters tend to get over-used. However, they are all very capable scorers (all 5 averaging in double digits on the season) and the Dragons starting five is well-rested here. Drexel hasn't played since Saturday and they shot 53.7% from the field against the College of Charleston but the Dragons also allowed 52.5% from the field in a 2-point loss that totaled 170 points. We have great value with the rather low total posted on this one as Drexel has shown a tendency all season long to get involved in very high-scoring games away from home. James Madison is likely to oblige the "run and gun" style in this one as the Dukes, even though they allowed only 66 points at Towson, allowed 51.1% shooting! James Madison has allowed 49% or better from the field in 5 of their last 7 games. The Dukes, prior to holding Towson to 66, allowed an average of 79.5 in their 6 prior games. The over was 5-2 in James Madison's 7 games prior to the Towson game staying under the total. The Dukes are averaging 76.6 ppg at home this season and have revenge from losing at Drexel this season and from getting knocked out of the conference tourney by the Dragons a year ago. That means they won't take their foot off the gas here but Drexel can match them bucket for bucket. In other words, plenty of points in this one! 10* OVER the total in James Madison |
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02-14-19 | Kent State v. Western Michigan OVER 149.5 | 82-63 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #689 Thursday 8* OVER the total in Western Michigan Broncos vs Kent State Golden Flashes @ 5 ET - It has been a very rough season for the Broncos but they have some momentum now as they enter this game off a home win versus Northern Illinois. That game versus the Huskies went over the total and Western Michigan is now 6-0 to the over in their 6 home games. That is an impressive streak dating all the way back to late December. As for the Golden Flashes, they're certainly having a much better season than the Broncos but Kent State is off an ugly loss. After scoring just 53 points in an ugly loss at Akron, the Golden Flashes are going to now take advantage of a Western Michigan team that has allowed an average of 83.7 points per game in its last 10 games! Kent State is off back to back unders but prior to this the over was on a 9-4 run in Golden Flashes games. Also, this is just the 4th time this season that Kent State has had back to back unders and the over is a perfect 3-0 in this situation this season. Look for another one here as the Flashes bounce back from an ugly loss but the Broncos, at home and off a confidence-boosting win, match them bucket for bucket! 8* OVER the total in Western Michigan |
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02-13-19 | 76ers -9 v. Knicks | 126-111 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Game #509 Wednesday NBA 8* Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ New York Knicks @ 7:35 ET - The Celtics Gordon Hayward whom has averaged ONE made three-pointer per game went 6 for 7 from beyond the arc last night which was undoubtedly the difference in the game. Boston won at Philly by 3 points and Hayward had 15 more points than usual from beyond the arc. Flip that around to normal and the Sixers win the game by a DOZEN points. In any event, sometimes crazy stuff does happen in these games and, as a result of last night's nonsense, you're going to see a HIGHLY motivated Philadelphia team taking the court in New York tonight. While the Knicks have another game tomorrow before the All Star break, this is it for the Sixers. After this game Philly doesn't play again until a full WEEK from Thursday. In other words Philly is going to make this one count and I expect them to take advantage of a very bad, and downtrodden, Knicks team. New York has lost 17 straight games. The last two losses have been tight defeats but 12 of the 15 prior losses in this streaks have all come by 9 or more points. When Philly wins, they generally cover. In fact the Sixers ATS record is 22-3 (88%) in their last 25 SU wins. Per all of the above stats you can see why that if one expects Philly to win SU one can also expect them to win ATS. This game has road rout written all over it and I don't see the 76ers being denied. 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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02-13-19 | Pistons +5.5 v. Celtics | Top | 110-118 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Game #505 Wednesday 10* Top Play Detroit Pistons (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 7:35 ET - The Celtics Gordon Hayward whom has averaged ONE made three-pointer per game in his CAREER went 6 for 7 from beyond the arc last night which was undoubtedly the difference in Boston's upset win over the 76ers. The Celtics won at Philly by 3 points yesterday and Hayward had 15 more points than usual from beyond the arc. Flip that around to normal and Boston loses the game by a DOZEN points. In any event, sometimes crazy stuff does happen in these games and, as a result of highly unlikely shooting result leading to an emotional upset win for the Celtics, this is pure and simple a flat spot for Boston. Of course that is why odds maker opened this line up with the Celtics favored by less than a half dozen points even though they are on their home floor. Keep in mind Kyrie Irving has been out for Boston and I would be very surprised to see him return tonight considering this is the Celtics final game before the All Star break. The smart thing to do is to let him continue to rest his knee and have continued rest then through the break. Boston had failed to cover 3 straight games before the unlikely upset win last night. Conversely, the Pistons enter this game having won (and covered) 4 straight games. Detroit also has covered its last two games against the Celtics and has the size in the paint to give Boston some trouble. This is especially true when the Pistons have a significant rest edge like they do here. The Celtics are 3-5 SU (and 2-6 ATS!) this season in the 2nd game of a back to back. Detroit is playing with a lot of confidence right now and has done well all season when in a situation like this. That is, the Pistons are 8-5 ATS (and 10-3 SU!) when off a game in which they scored 115 points or more! This one has upset written all over it and I am happy to grab the generous points being offered. 10* DETROIT |
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02-13-19 | Providence v. Villanova -11 | Top | 67-85 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach CBB Game #782 Wednesday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats (-) vs Providence Friars @ 6:30 ET - I got burned going against the Friars on Saturday with the Red Storm. No one expected that St John's would be without Mustapha Heron in that game but it made me feel like a fool when he was listed as the key player in my write-up and then 30 minutes before the game it was announced he wouldn't play. How important was he? Heron came back last night and scored 28 points in the OT win for the Red Storm over Butler. The point is that Providence, though they still deserve credit of course for the Saturday win, were very fortunate that Heron didn't play as it resulted in St John's being completely out of rhythm in that game. Now the Friars, after being in the right place at the right time, are in a complete 180 situation and are in the wrong place at the wrong time! Villanova is at home and coming off a one point loss at Marquette on Saturday. SU losses have been rare for the Wildcats this season and they are known for responding after a defeat. Nova is 3-0 ATS the last 3 times they were off a SU loss. This spread is double digits but it is justified. The Cats led the Friars by 18 points at halftime at Providence early last month. The Friars, at home, were able to claw back into the game in the 2nd half. However, on the road, that will not happen and this is particularly true when you consider the angry mindset of the Wildcats team they are facing here. Providence is 8-10 ATS this season against teams with a winning record. Villanova is 14-6 ATS this season against teams with a winning record. The Wildcats turn this into a home blowout. 10* VILLANOVA |
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02-12-19 | Celtics v. 76ers -6 | Top | 112-109 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #574 Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Boston Celtics @ 8:05 ET - The 76ers are a much different team than the ones that the Celtics have dominated in recent meetings. Not only did Boston knock Philly out of the playoffs in 5 games in May, the Celtics also have won each of the first two meetings this season. However, not only were those games at Boston and this one is in Philadelphia, the Sixers also are now stacked. Not only do they now have a "Big Four" with Embiid, Simmons, Butler and Harris, the 76ers also still have JJ Redick and the sharp-shooter is currently red hot from beyond the arc. They are loaded with weapons while the Celtics are actually down a key one today as Kyrie Irving (knee) has been downgraded to out for this game! Boston is 9-17 ATS this season in road games and also just 3-6 ATS as an underdog this season. All 3 of those wins were outright upset wins. In other words, the Celtics have not covered a single game this season that they've lost SU as an underdog. That said, note that Philly is quite likely to get the SU win here. The 76ers are 23-6 SU at home this season. In other words, the odds are heavily stacked in our favor here for a Sixers win and cover. In terms of technical support for the 76ers, Philly is 35-13 ATSÂ versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - when the Sixers are facing them in the 2nd half of the season. Overall the 76ers are a fantastic 72-43 ATS long-term in home games. The Celtics have been slumping and are on a 5-11 ATS run and Boston is in the wrong place at the wrong time. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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02-12-19 | St Bonaventure v. St. Joe's -1 | Top | 76-51 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #602 Tuesday 10* Top Play St Joseph's Hawks (-) vs St Bonaventure Bonnies @ 6:30 ET - This line was as high as a -3 on St Joseph's early on when lines first came out yesterday afternoon. It has since dropped to very nearly a pick'em and this is offering superb line value on the home team. This is a big-time revenge game and I look for the Hawks to get home revenge in this one just like they did when they blasted the Billikens on Friday. Earlier this season St Joseph's had lost at St Louis and shot just 29.5% from the field in the embarrassing loss. The Hawks got payback in Philly Friday. Similar situation here. St Joseph's lost badly at St Bonaventure and shot 29.1% in the defeat and now it is payback time in Philly as they host the Bonnies. Though the Hawks are short-handed, including being without Lamarr Kimble, that problem is mitigated by the fact that St Joseph's enters this game with 3 days off and they have 2 days off after this. In other words, it is no problem to fully utilize all hands on deck fully in this one and that worked just fine when they blasted St Louis by 30 on Friday. The Hawks are catching the Bonnies at the right time as St Bonaventure has been held to below 30% from the field (including horrific 3-point shooting performances) in each of their last two games. Off back to back losses, St Bonaventure has scored an average of just 53 points per game in their last two games. The Bonnies are just 4-9 SU on the road this season while the Hawks are a solid 9-3 SU at home this season. St Bonaventure is just 2-4 SU and ATS this season when off a game in which they were held to just 60 points or less. The Hawks are a perfect 3-0 SU this season in a home game where the total is 135 to 139.5 points. 10* ST JOSEPH'S |
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02-11-19 | Hornets +5.5 v. Pacers | 90-99 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #555 Monday 8* Charlotte Hornets (+) @ Indiana Pacers @ 7:05 ET - It looks easy to take the Pacers on their home floor here and, of course, that is what many are doing as the early line has gone from -4 to as high as a -5.5 as of early game day morning. Of course you know what happens when something looks easy. Everyone sees a Pacers team that has won 5 straight games and has a 37-19 record on the season and is hosting a Hornets teams that has an overall losing record on the year. It was easy to predict what would happen here in terms of line movement and now I am stepping in on the other side of the move and grabbing the extra value. Charlotte is hell-bent on getting revenge here after they got embarrassed by 25 points in their most recent match-up here at Indiana about 3 weeks ago. Charlotte had won and covered each of their two prior meetings with the Pacers before losing the most recent game 120-95. Look for the Hornets to improve to 10-5 ATS (and SU) against Central Division opponents with an upset win here. However, I am happy to grab the available points as added insurance should they fall short of the upset. Indiana has shot the ball extremely well the last 3 games but it is such a high percentage (55%) it is certainly not sustainable and the Pacers have been held to a combined 43.7% from the field the last two times they've hosted the Hornets. Similar result expected here! 8* CHARLOTTE |
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02-11-19 | Knicks v. Cavs OVER 210.5 | Top | 104-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #553 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Cavaliers vs New York Knicks @ 7:05 ET - The very first numbers that popped up on this total offshore were as high as a 212.5 in some books. It has since moved down about a bucket from the opener and I like the value here that we're getting in a game where neither team is highly motivated to play much defense. That's because the Cavaliers and Knicks are both in the running for the #1 spot in the NBA draft and are simply playing out the string on very disappointing seasons. I am well aware of the fact that New York has been on a long-term trend of unders and that the Cavs have also been trending under. However, there is plenty of reason to believe that this one plays out quite loose and high-scoring. Cleveland has allowed 114.6 points per game in their last 11 home games. The over is 11-5 in the Cavaliers last 16 home games. The Knicks are allowing 115.7 points per game in their road games on the season! Both teams have unimpressive offensive production but when defenses are this bad there is going to be plenty of quality looks at the basket. This is especially true in a game that is likely to be played a little "loosey goosey" with very little attention to detail on defense. Look for the over to improve to 8-4 this season in Cavaliers games against Atlantic Division opponents and also the over improves to 4-1 in the rare situation of the Cavs being a favorite in a game. Two bad teams, not a lot of defense, and a shootout breaks out in this one! 10* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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02-11-19 | Virginia v. North Carolina OVER 142 | Top | 69-61 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach CBB Game #855 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in North Carolina Tar Heels @ 7 ET - There are 3 teams that are clearly the top teams in the ACC. That group includes these two matched up here as well as Duke. There is no doubt that the Tar Heels are very similar in style to the Blue Devils. This is the only regular season meeting between North Carolina and Virginia. That said, lets look at how the Cavaliers fared against Duke this season. They just had their 2nd match-up of the season on Saturday. The Blue Devils scorched the Cavs from three point land. In the prior meeting this season, at Duke, the Cavaliers held Duke in check but gave up too much inside. That is why the Blue Devils averaged 76.5 points per game this season in their two games against the vaunted defense of Virginia. Note that UNC is averaging 88.3 points per game on the season. You can see where I am going with this. The fact is the Tar Heels are going to "get theirs" in this game in terms of scoring plenty of points. They do not want to let UVA control the tempo here and, since this game is at North Carolina, I do expect the Tar Heels to have quite a say so in the tempo of this game. The Heels will look to run and gun and create quick transition scoring opportunities. The Cavaliers defensive mindset is still shaken from getting blitzed by Duke and now they have to face a team that is averaging even more points per game than Duke this season. This is a tough match-up for the Cavs but I do expect them to score plenty. Virginia has shot 47% from the field on the road and averaged 70 points per game away from home this season. The over is 4-1 in the Cavaliers last 5 games against teams with a winning record. The over is 3-1 in Tar Heels home games with a posted total between 140 and 144.5 points. North Carolina wants revenge for last season's ACC Tourney loss to the Cavaliers and the Tar Heels know they will NOT get revenge by playing a plodding slow style here. In other words, this game has "up tempo" written all over it! 10* OVER the total in North Carolina |
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02-10-19 | Magic v. Hawks OVER 223 | Top | 124-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #547 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Hawks vs Orlando Magic @ 7:35 ET - The Magic are off a huge upset win at Milwaukee last night as they held the Bucks to just 83 points. You know it will be easy for them to now fall flat on the defensive end of the courts as they go from facing one of the best teams in the East to facing a team that is nearly 20 games under .500 on the season. Yes the Hawks are a division rival but it is not much of a rivalry when a team is having an awful season. Atlanta did put up 120 points yesterday against Charlotte but the Hawks, even though they were at home, allowed 129 points. As bad as that sounds it is truly not that unusual. The over is 10-4 in Atlanta's last 14 games and a lot of it has to do with porous defense as well as playing at a fast pace. The Hawks have now allowed an average of 122 points per game their last 14 games. The Magic are favored by a bucket here. So if the Hawks continue to play as they have been for the past month now and allow 122 here and the odds maker is right about the spread (as they so often are) this could be a 122-120 game. That puts us nearly 20 points over the posted number on this game. The total was as high as a 226 with early numbers but has been pushed down to a 223. In typical contrarian fashion, I am on the other side of the move in this one! Prior to yesterday's dominating road win at Milwaukee, the over was actually on a 4-1 run in Orlando's last 5 games away from home. How likely is another "grinder" for the Magic after yesterday's low-scoring win? VERY unlikely! The over is 8-1 this season in Orlando games when the Magic are off a game in which they allowed 90 points or less. Look for a shootout here! 10* OVER the total in Atlanta |
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02-10-19 | Georgia Tech v. Notre Dame OVER 128 | Top | 59-69 | Push | 0 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach CBB Game #837 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ 6 ET - There is a long history of match-ups between Notre Dame and Georgia Tech staying under the total. That continued in this season's earlier match-up at Georgia Tech 3 weeks ago. The Yellow Jackets are known for getting involved in low-scoring grinder type games. Looking at the final score of 63-61 in the Jackets win over the Fighting Irish 3 weeks ago it looks like Georgia Tech was very successful in slowing down Notre Dame. However, when one digs a little deeper one finds that the Irish actually attempted 65 shots in the game including 30 three pointers! So it wasn't really the tempo of the game that kept it under the total, it was the fact that the Irish shot very poorly in that game. I don't expect a repeat of that here. The Fighting Irish are not offensive juggernauts but they do average a solid 73 points per game when at home this season. They also are allowing 68 points per game at home. It will be Notre Dame, on their home floor, dictating the pace in this game and I expect us to get well above the 128 that is currently posted on this one. You can see that Fighting Irish games tend to total around 140 points and they're very likely to shoot much better in this rematch. Also, the over is a long-term 29-16 (including 6-2 in recent seasons) when the Irish are a home favorite in a range of 3.5 to 6 points. The over is 6-3 when Georgia Tech enters a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games. 10* OVER the total in Notre Dame |
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02-10-19 | Cincinnati v. Houston -4 | 58-65 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #830 Sunday 8* Houston Cougars (-) vs Cincinnati Bearcats @ 4 ET - Solid line value here with Houston at home. The Bearcats have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these teams even though there has been a statistical anomaly that would suggest otherwise. The Cougars have had more field goal attempts in all 3 of those games versus Cincinnati but have fallen short due to buckets not falling. The 3 meetings last season saw Houston have 25 more field goal attempts than the Bearcats yet they won only one of the games. Also, the Cougars lost the most important one (by a single point) when Cincy knocked them out of the conference tourney. It is payback time here. Houston is a perfect 3-0 ATS this season as a home favorite in a range of 3.5 to 6 points. Cincinnati is 0-3 ATS this season in games with a posted total in the 120s. Also, the Bearcats are on a 2-6 ATS run as an underdog. The Cougars are 13-2 SU (and 10-5 ATS) in February games and they get their revenge here. 8* HOUSTON |
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02-10-19 | Lakers v. 76ers -6.5 | 120-143 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Game #544 Saturday 8* Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 3:35 ET - How are good are the Sixers now after all the Tobias Harris trade? Truly, they are quite stacked and they proved that in the win over one of the top teams in the league when they won and covered against the Nuggets on Friday. What was most impressive about the win is that the Sixers Big Four of Harris, Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons, and Jimmy Butler averaged only 15.8 points in that game. The bench scored 20 points. So what was the key to victory? The Sixers "forgotten" fifth starter as JJ Redick absolutely "went off" for a season high 34 points and was 6 for 7 from three point land. The way that game played out shows just how dangerous this Philly team can be as they truly have weapons at all 5 positions. The fact that Embiid was battling illness and made just 4 of 17 from the field and yet the 76ers still won and covered says a lot. The scary thing for opponents is that they will likely be even better today as this will be their 2nd game together with Harris as a starter and Boban Marjanovic and Mike Scott coming off the bench. Philadelphia is 22-6 SU at home this season. What about the all important cover? Dating back to late November, Philly has 21 wins and they only failed to cover in 3 of the 21 victories. In other words, when the Sixers win, they almost always get the cash. They're catching the Lakers at the perfect time for a big win as they catch LA off the big upset win at Boston. Los Angeles is still just 12-15 SU on the road this season and when they lose they rarely get the cash! The Lakers have managed the cover in only 3 of their 27 losses this season! This game has home blowout written all over it. 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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02-09-19 | Duke v. Virginia -114 | Top | 81-71 | Loss | -114 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter GOW - Rickenbach CBB Game #714 Saturday 10* Top Play Virginia Cavaliers (-) vs Duke Blue Devils @ 6 ET - The Cavaliers have just one loss this season and it came at Duke. In that game the Cavs made just 3 of 17 three pointers which certainly was a key factor. Now, of course, one could argue that the Blue Devils only made 2 of 14 three pointers and that make it a mute point. However, the reason I would dispute that is that Duke was t home for that game! They couldn't make threes against the nation's #1 ranked defense and it is unlikely that will improve on the road for sure! As for the Cavaliers though the story is certainly different as they now get their shot at the Blue Devils in Virginia. The Cavs are averaging 9 three pointers per game and hitting 42.1% from beyond the arc when on their home floor this season. Overall on the season the Cavs are hitting 39.4% from three point land while the Blue Devils have struggled to a 30.8% this season from downtown. Now I know that Duke has, surprisingly, shot better from outside on the road compared to at home this season but they're now going to a raucous arena in Virginia and facing the nation's #1 defense. The Cavaliers want this game badly and, in my opinion, they are not going to be denied. They came into this season projected by many to finish above Duke in the ACC and they can earn that billing by knocking off the Blue Devils in this huge rematch. Duke is 1-4 ATS in games with a posted total in the 130s. The Blue Devils are 0-3 ATS in their last 3 games against teams that are allowing an average of 64 points or less on the season. The Cavaliers are 22-4 SU (and 20-6 ATS) in games with a posted total in the 130s. Look for a defensive battle which will suit the Cavs very well and they get payback. The line on this game has dropped to as low as a -1 which has opened up good value on the money line for those of you that have access to it - as low as the -115 range. 10* VIRGINIA |
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02-09-19 | Spurs v. Jazz OVER 221 | Top | 105-125 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #517 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Utah Jazz vs San Antonio Spurs @ 5:05 ET - The over is 8-1 in the Spurs last 9 games. The over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these teams and that includes 4-1 the last 5 times they've met in Utah. The Jazz are a long-term 10-3 to the over in home games with a posted total of 220 or more. In other words, though a big total like this on a game in Utah is quite rare, don't let the big total scare you away from the over. The Spurs have been putting up huge points but can't stop anybody. Also, the Jazz are seeking revenge for a loss at San Antonio in the most recent meeting between these teams. Keep in mind, Utah has been known for some huge shooting performances at home this season and that includes putting up 139 the last time they hosted the Spurs. Also, the over is 12-1 this season in San Antonio's road games with a posted total of 220 points or more. As you can see with both of these teams, when big totals are posted on their games, it has proven to be justified nearly every time and I feel strongly that will be the case again here. The desperate Spurs have lost 3 straight games so they're not going to back down here but they'll have to do it with offense because their defense has had plenty of issues of late and that means this one turns into a shootout. 10* OVER the total in Utah |
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