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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-25-17 | Oregon +7.5 v. Kansas | Top | 74-60 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Saturday 10* Top Play Oregon Ducks (+) vs Kansas Jayhawks @ 8:45 ET - Everyone is likely to be lining up on Kansas here and you know what that means. In typical contrarian style I'll grab the generous points with Oregon here. Riding the momentum of a tight hard-fought win over one of the hottest teams in the country (Michigan), look for the Ducks to give the Jayhawks all they can handle here. Oregon is not only 32-5 on the season, 3 of the Ducks last 4 losses have come by 4 points or less. This team just doesn't get blown out. While I certainly do respect Kansas, they got an easy draw with Cal Davis in the opening round. Then, their win over Michigan State looks great on paper (20 point margin) but that game was much closer than that throughout the first half and all the way through about the mid-point of the 2nd half before the Jayhawks pulled away. Keep in mind too, that wasn't a "typical" Spartans team either as it was definitely a down year for Michigan State basketball. Now, after a blowout win over Purdue, the fact that Kansas truly hasn't been tested for a full 40 minutes in the tourney could actually hurt them here. What is going to happen when the shots aren't falling so easily for the Jayhawks? Keep in mind they've shot 53% or better from the field (and 40% or better from three point land) in all 3 games of the Big Dance. The last time the Jayhawks had a more "normal" shooting performance they lost to TCU in the Big 12 tourney. Look for Kansas to "come back down to earth" in this one as their other-worldly shooting comes to an end against a solid defensive team. I know the Ducks defense is not the same without Chris Boucher but they've done an admirable job in this tourney and will certainly be fired up and dialed in for an opportunity against a #1 seed. While Kansas could get caught peeking ahead to what they feel would be a showdown with another #1 seed (Gonzaga) unless an upset occurs prior to this game, the fact is that the Jayhawks may underestimate just how strong this Oregon team is. The Ducks are 11-3 ATS this season (and 25-12 ATS the L3 seasons combined) in games against teams that average 77 points or more per game. The Jayhawks are 5-8 ATS this season in games with a posted total in the 150s. Too many points here in my opinion and the dog will be a "tough out" for Kansas! 10* OREGON |
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03-25-17 | Raptors +1 v. Mavs | Top | 94-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
No Doubt Blowout Rout - Rickenbach NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Toronto Raptors (+) @ Dallas Mavericks @ 8:35 ET - Even though this is a revenge spot for the Mavericks (lost ugly at Toronto two weeks ago), the Raptors simply are too dominant on the glass for the Mavs. In the last two meetings Dallas has been outrebounded by a combined 42 boards. Also, Toronto comes into this game having won 4 straight games and they've outrebounded their opponents by a combined 56 rebounds in their last 3 games. The Mavericks are off of a win but they failed to cover 5 of their 7 prior games and they've been outrebounded by 85 caroms in their last 6 games. Look for the rebounding edge to again be a key here as the Raptors dominate the boards. Toronto has been shooting the ball better than Dallas of late as the Mavericks seem to be wilting under the playoff pressure quite often while the Raptors (truly quite secure in their playoff position) are playing relaxed and confident and shooting the ball quite well again as they've rebounded from a recent slump. Toronto is 5-2 SU and ATS this season when off of an upset win as an underdog. The Raptors are also 14-7 ATS (and 15-6 SU) when off of a game where they won by a double digit margin. As for the Mavericks, they are 3-6 ATS against Atlantic Division opponents this season. Also, the Mavs are only 11-19 SU against teams with a winning record this season. 10* TORONTO |
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03-25-17 | Xavier v. Gonzaga OVER 145 | 59-83 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Saturday 8* OVER the total in Gonzaga Bulldogs vs Xavier Musketeers @ 6:05 ET - The Bulldogs scored just 61 points in their win over West Virginia Thursday. However, Gonzaga is known for following up a poor effort on offense with a very strong one. In the regular season, when the Bulldogs were off of a game where they scored 74 points or less (happened 7 times) they responded by averaging 93.3 points per game in their next game. After facing teams known for playing some solid defense (West Virginia and Northwestern) plus sleep-walking through the first half of their tourney opener (because they were not enthused about facing South Dakota State), Xavier looks like the perfect opponent for Gonzaga to put on a clinic on offense! The Musketeers are not known for their defense but, on the thing is for certain, this team has been red hot on offense for weeks! Xavier has shot over 48% from the field in 7 of their last 9 games and that includes knocking down at least 50% from the field in all 3 games so far in the Big Dance. The Musketeers are 23-14 to the over in Saturday games the last 3 seasons combined and the Bulldogs are on a long-term run of 28-16 to the over in NCAA tournament games! After facing the wrong opponents for "run and gun" on offense look for this match-up with Xavier to turn into a track meet with plenty of offense! 8* OVER the total in Gonzaga |
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03-25-17 | Jazz v. Clippers OVER 202 | 95-108 | Win | 100 | 6 h 30 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Saturday 8* OVER the total in Los Angeles Clippers vs Utah Jazz @ 3:35 ET - About two weeks ago the Clippers and Jazz matched up and the game went over the total. It's also been about two weeks since the Jazz have been on the road against a Western Conference foe and that is a significant fact because the over is a PERFECT 6-0 in Utah's last 6 road games against Western Conference opponents. Also, Utah has allowed 110 points per game in their last 5 road games against opponents from the West. The Clippers are off of a loss and were held under 100 points. They'll be hungry to bounce back here and the over is 6-1 the last 7 times that Los Angeles was off of a game where they were held to 99 points or less. The Clips have averaged 114.7 points per game in those 7 games! The over is 9-4 in Utah's last 13 games against teams with a winning record. Look for the over to improve to 6-3 this season in LA's games against teams that allow an average of 98 points or less per game. 8* OVER the total in Los Angeles Clippers |
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03-24-17 | UCLA v. Kentucky +1 | Top | 75-86 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
Game of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Friday 10* Top Play Kentucky Wildcats (+) vs UCLA Bruins @ 9:35 ET - Kentucky has lost back to back games to UCLA - December of 2016 and December of 2015 - and this is even though the Wildcats took 14 more shots from the field in this season's match-up and 13 more shots from the field in last season's match-up. What happened? The Bruins simply shot "lights out" in each game. I don't expect a repeat of that here. The Cats have really dialed things up a notch on defense as the season has gone on and they've held 8 of their last 11 opponents under 41.9% from the field. While both teams have improved since they met in early December this season, the young Wildcats really needed the extra time to mature and that will pay huge dividends in this rematch. Also, unlike Kentucky, UCLA hasn't exactly been "dialed in" on defense. Conversely, the Bruins have allowed at least 43.7% from the field in 3 straight games and UCLA also has not been defending the 3-ball nearly as well as Kentucky has. The Bruins have allowed an average of 78 points per game in their last 3 games. The Wildcats haven't allowed 78 points in game in ANY of their last 12 games. Kentucky has, in fact, allowed 67 points or less in 9 of its last 12 games. UCLA has all the glitzy offensive stats so they are a popular choice but defense wins games like this at this point in the season and the Wildcats have truly come along way and definitely defend the perimeter much better than the Bruins do. UCLA is 11-8 SU in tournament games the past 3 seasons but UK is 17-2 SU in this same stretch and the Wildcats have greatly matured as this season has gone on. This is a double revenge spot for the Cats and I don't see them being denied. Lets not forget they obliterated the Bruins 83-44 three years ago and, after suffering tight losses in each of the last two meetings, though this won't be that type of blowout I do see the Wildcats winning this one large as they get their revenge when it counts the most! 10* KENTUCKY |
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03-24-17 | South Carolina v. Baylor OVER 135 | 70-50 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
Insiders Edge - Rickenbach CBB Friday 8* OVER the total in Baylor Bears vs South Carolina Gamecocks @ 7:25 ET - South Carolina has a strong reputation for its defense but they over is now 11-5 in the Gamecocks last 16 games and truly they have faded as the season has gone on. South Carolina has allowed an average of 73 points per game in their last 4 games and the Gamecocks have allowed 71 points or more in 9 of their last 12 games. On the other end of the floor South Carolina has been red hot in the Big Dance with 90.5 points per game scored so far in the tourney. I don't think Baylor is going to have a lot of success in shutting them down. The Bears have seen each of their last 4 games go over the total as they've allowed an average of 71 points per game. Baylor has been shooting red hot over their last 6 games (5 went over) and they've also knocked down over 40% of their three pointers in 3 of their last 4 games. The over is 5-2 in Baylor's last 7 games against SEC competition. As for South Carolina, the over is 10-5 in their last 15 games against teams with a winning record. Look for the over to improve to 5-0 in the Bears last 5 games as the high-scoring trending continues for both of these teams. The Gamecocks are riding high after the upset of Duke and have a ton of confidence right now but Baylor won't go away quietly and has plenty of big scoring options. The result should be a back and forth high-scoring affair played at a good pace. 8* OVER the total in Baylor |
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03-24-17 | Cavs v. Hornets OVER 212.5 | 112-105 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA Friday 8* OVER the total in Charlotte Hornets vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7:05 ET - The Cavaliers are looking to bounce back off of a loss but Cleveland's recent domination of Charlotte ensures that the Hornets certainly aren't going to back down here. As a result, expect a back and forth high-scoring game here as the Cavs have allowed each of their last 3 opponents to shoot 51% or better from the field. The Hornets have averaged 111 points per game in their last 5 home games and they'll be tough to stop here but don't look for the Charlotte defense to enjoy much success against the Cavaliers either. Cleveland has averaged 112.6 points per game in their last 5 games against the Hornets. The total on this game opened up in the 215.5 range and is now down to a 212.5 as of mid-morning on gameday. This is offering even more value to the over and the over is a hot 4-1 (80%) this season when Charlotte enters a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more. Also, the over is 9-4 (69%) this season when the Cavaliers are off of an upset loss as a favorite. After their disappointing defeat at Denver, the Cavs will fired up and employing plenty of "run and gun" in this one. 8* OVER the total in Charlotte |
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03-24-17 | Pistons v. Magic +4 | 87-115 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA Friday 8* Orlando Magic (+) vs Detroit Pistons @ 7:05 ET - The Magic had a bad fourth quarter and lost to the Hornets Wednesday. Now this line has gone from an opener of 2.5 on the Pistons all the way up to a -4 as of mid-morning on gameday. Detroit has lost (and failed to cover) 5 of its last 6 games. The Pistons shots just aren't falling and, as a result, they're feeling all the pressure here. Conversely, the Magic come into this game loose and relaxed and playing with nothing to lose as they certainly don't have to worry about any playoff pressure! That makes for an ultra dangerous home dog in a spot like this and I like the fact that the Magic had won 4 of their last 7 home games before falling apart late against Charlotte Wednesday. Look for Orlando to bounce back and take advantage of a Pistons team that's been held to 44.3% or less from the field in 6 straight games! Detroit is 3-6 SU (and ATS) when off of a game where they allowed 115 points or more. Also, on the season, the Pistons are an ugly 12-23 ATS in road games. I smell an upset here but I am happy to grab all the points I can get. 8* ORLANDO |
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03-24-17 | Nuggets +2 v. Pacers | Top | 125-117 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA Friday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (+) @ Indiana Pacers @ 7:05 ET - Both teams dealing with playoff pressure right now as they work hard to secure a post-season berth. However, the Nuggets are dealing with the pressure much better than the Pacers and that's why you shouldn't be "fooled" by the interesting line that was posted on this game. Considering Denver is only 13-20 SU in road games this season and Indiana is 25-10 SU in home games this season, why would the Pacers have opened up at very close to the "pick'em range" in this game? Of course it is with good reason but many will feel the odds makers made a mistake here or simply "giving this one away" for the Pacers. It just doesn't work that way folks and I actually like to look for games like this for the sole intention of playing the other side. Here are the "real" keys for this one. Indiana is on a long-term 7-13 (35%) straight-up run their last 20 games. The Nuggets are 8-4 SU (and 9-3 ATS!) in their last 12 games. This is a classic case of two teams going in opposite directions but the betting markets, as usual, are likely to be slow to adjust. That is when you can find significant value which is what I believe we have here. The Pacers have been held under 44.7% from the field in 6 of their last 7 games. The hot-shooting Nuggets have knocked down over 48.7% from the field in 9 of their last 12 games! Denver is also on a 4-0 ATS run against the Pacers and a long-term 19-8 ATS run against Central Division opponents. Even though the Nuggets full season numbers are not impressive (in terms of defense), note that Indiana is 8-17 ATS (32%) in their games this season against teams that are allowing 106 points or more per game! The Pacers offense simply won't be able to keep up with the hot shooting Nuggets in this one. 10* DENVER |
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03-23-17 | Suns v. Nets UNDER 224.5 | 98-126 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Thursday 8* UNDER the total in Brooklyn Nets vs Phoenix Suns @ 7:35 ET - It is getting so late in the season now that some teams simply just don't care. Phoenix has now lost 5 straight games and 7 of their last 8. The Suns have averaged only 101 points per game in their last 7 games and this has led to 7 straight unders for Phoenix! The Suns are simply not shooting well and there is no reason to expect that to change tonight as Phoenix just doesn't have a lot of "fire" in them at this late juncture in the season. Brooklyn, like the Suns, is also generally known for very high scoring games but they've had just 3 overs in their last 8 games as the Nets have been held to 105 points or less in 6 of their last 8 games. Brooklyn has not shot well at all in their last 3 games - under 43.5% in those games. Phoenix has been held under 44% from the field in 5 straight games! The very first number that popped up on this total was 219 and the markets have now pushed it all the way up to 224.5 as of mid-morning gameday. The under is 4-1 (80%) the last 5 times that Brooklyn was off of an upset win as an underdog. The under is 8-3 in Phoenix games in March and, as noted above, it's "that time of year again" for the Suns as they wind down a disappointing campaign and the under is now 30-12 in March games for the Suns the past 3 seasons combined. More of the same Thursday evening. 8* UNDER the total in Brooklyn |
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03-23-17 | Raptors +4.5 v. Heat | Top | 101-84 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Toronto Raptors (+) @ Miami Heat @ 7:35 ET - While I successfully played against the Raptors Tuesday because their playoff seeding is highly unlikely to change a great deal, that doesn't mean there are not going to be games that Toronto will be "up for" as the regular season winds down and this is one of those! The Raptors lost at Miami by 15 points a little less than 2 weeks ago and that sets this rematch up perfectly for revenge. Even though the final margin looked ugly it had a lot do with Toronto getting outscored by 27 points from three point land as they had a horrific night shooting the 3-ball. The Raptors did win the battle of the boards in that game and had 16 more field goal attempts than the Heat in that one. Even though Serge Ibaka is likely to miss tonight's game he shot very poorly against Miami two weeks ago and was also not a big factor on the boards. With that said, his absence from tonight's game is unlikely to have the impact that many are expecting. With this line having already moved from a 3 up to a 4.5 excellent line value is being offered with the road dog. The Raptors have a SU record of 24-13 this season (and 86-34 the L3 seasons combined) in their games against teams with a losing record. The Heat are 12-21 SU this season (and 49-74 the L3 seasons combined) in their games against teams with a winning record. Miami also has a big game at Boston on deck while the Raptors have a non-conference foe up next. 10* TORONTO |
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03-23-17 | West Virginia v. Gonzaga -3 | Top | 58-61 | Push | 0 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
TBS Early Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Thursday 10* Top Play Gonzaga Bulldogs (-) vs West Virginia Mountaineers @ 7:35 ET - In their first game of the tourney Gonzaga simply underestimated South Dakota State (who could blame them?) and they ended up having a poor first half. The Bulldogs responded by blowing out the Jackrabbits by 16 in the 2nd half. That momentum carried right into the game against Northwestern where Gonzaga blew out the Wildcats by 18 points but then, with big lead in hand, really let up in the 2nd half and failed to cover again as a big favorite. Now, certainly West Virginia is better than both of these teams, but for Gonzaga to be laying only 3 here definitely relates to them coming off of back to back non-covers. Now we can get a 34-1 team that basically needs to just win the game to get the cover and, keep in mind, this is a Bulldogs team that outscored its opponent by a combined 34 points over 40 minutes between the 2nd half of their first game and the first half of their second game in this tourney. Look for Gonzaga to put it all together as they will be fully focused and they know they were in for a war with the Mountaineers. The Bulldogs defense will be ready to play a full forty in this one and West Virginia allowed Iowa State to shoot 54% in the Big 12 championship game and then followed that by allowing Bucknell (yes, Bucknell!) to score 80 in the first round of the Big Dance. Had the Mountaineers not shot "lights out" against Notre Dame they wouldn't even be here for this game. Of course West Virginia has played the tougher schedule than Gonzaga on the season but the Bulldogs have the strength of a winning mindset that has been built by a 34-1 season and by being very well coached under Mark Few. The Mountaineers were on a 1-6 ATS run before the win and cover over the Fighting Irish and I feel West Virginia is again being over-valued here. The Bulldogs defense has allowed 41.3% or less in 19 of its last 20 games. The Mountaineers defense had allowed 43.5% or more in 6 of their last 9 games before holding Notre Dame to 40.7% from the field on Saturday. Have not been as impressed this season, as I typically am, with a Bob Huggins coached defense and I see them getting knocked out of the tournament tonight. Mountaineers are 4-10 ATS in games with a posted total in the 140s this season while the Bulldogs are 14-4 ATS with the same parameters this season. 10* GONZAGAÂ |
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03-23-17 | Michigan -118 v. Oregon | 68-69 | Loss | -118 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
CBS Early Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Thursday 8* Michigan Wolverines (-) vs Oregon Ducks @ 7:05 ET - Michigan has been on a tremendous run ever since their plane skidded off the runway and caused major travel issues heading into the Big Ten tourney. The Wolverines seemed to be banded together by the experience and went on to win the Big Ten tournament and now are carrying that momentum right into the Big Dance. I have the Wolverines pegged as my "sleeper team" for the Big Dance because of the way the bracket was laid out and the fact that they would likely end up with Oregon in this spot. The Ducks are not the same team without Chris Boucher as he is a key defensive presence for them. Oregon has allowed 77 points per game and 51% shooting from the field in their last 3 games. Keep in mind the two most recent games were against Iona and Rhode Island. Now the Ducks face a red hot Wolverines team that is Big Ten tested and struggles could ensue here for Oregon. Michigan's defense did not play well at against Oklahoma State but the Cowboys have a very potent offense and the Wolverines did do a solid job against Wisconsin in the Big Ten championship game and then again coming up with a respectable effort against Louisville over the weekend. Look for another solid effort on that end of the floor in this one while Oregon's D against struggles without Boucher. The Wolverines have averaged 80 points per game their last 7 games and they've shot the ball very, very well. All 7 of those games were wins and I look for another one here! 8* MICHIGAN |
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03-22-17 | Hawks +7 v. Wizards | Top | 100-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks (+) @ Washington Wizards @ 8:05 ET - Both these teams have been struggling with recent losses but, as a result, that means we are getting extra line value with the revenging team that is on the road and therefore catching inflated points here. The Hawks lost by 26 points versus the Wizards in late January and that game was at Atlanta! Needless to say some home loss revenge is on order here and now they're being given points against a division rival that has covered just TWICE in their last 11 games! Though Atlanta is also in a slump I question whether Washington should really be this big of a favorite against a tough division rival whose road record this season is just as good as their home record (Hawks 2 games over .500 both away from home and at home). The Hawks have some injury issues but not enough to justify the Wizards being priced in the way they are tonight. This is not an uncommon time of year for Washington to be struggling. The Wizards are now 15-26 ATS in March games the past 3 seasons combined. The Hawks are 25-16 ATS the L3 seasons combined when they are playing with home loss revenge. Also, Atlanta is off of a loss at Charlotte and the Hawks are 9-4 ATS (and 10-3 SU!) this season when they are off of a divisional game. 10* ATLANTA HAWKS Wednesday evening |
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03-22-17 | Hornets v. Magic +5 | 109-102 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Wednesday 8* Orlando Magic (+) vs Charlotte Hornets @ 7:05 ET - The Magic lost by 40 points at Charlotte a little less than 2 weeks ago. Even though Orlando's post-season aspirations are long gone, as professionals, players will get up for a game like this. Not only do the Magic have a chance to play spoiler here and put a major dent in the last bit of playoff hopes that the Hornets still have, this game also comes against a division rival. Couple that with the embarrassing 121-81 defeat at Charlotte on the 10th of the month and you have the perfect ingredients for a huge effort from Orlando in this one. Also, Charlotte has a big home game on deck as the defending champs will be in town as LeBron James and company pay a visit. The Hornets will certainly be up for that game against the Cavs but it would not surprise me to see them a little flat tonight as they face the Magic. Charlotte is on a 3-11 ATS run against teams with a losing record. Also, the Hornets are off of back to back big divisional wins over Washington and Atlanta and Charlotte is only 3-8 ATS this season when off of a divisional game. Also, the Hornets are an ugly 3-8 ATS this season when they are off of a game where they held their opponent to 90 points or less. I am grabbing the classic "ugly dog" in a highly motivated spot! 8* ORLANDO MAGIC early Wednesday |
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03-22-17 | Illinois +3.5 v. UCF | 58-68 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 2 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Wednesday 8* Illinois Illini (+) @ Central Florida Golden Knights @ 7 ET - Central Florida rallied for the win at Illinois State Monday after being down big. Now, after expending a lot of energy for that road win over the Redbirds, it will be interesting to see how the Golden Knights respond here. I expect them to struggle against a Big Ten foe that, as you would expect, has a tougher strength of schedule than UCF has faced this season. Even with some recent wins, Central Florida is only 9-7 their last 16 games and more than half of those wins came by 5 points or less. Couple that with the fact that the Golden Knights are taking a step up in class to face the Illini here and I like the value being offered to underdog Illinois. The Illini have won and covered 7 of their last 10 games. Though they lost their most recent game as an underdog that defeat came at the hands of a Michigan team that is one of the hottest teams in the country! Note that prior to losing to the Wolverines, Illinois was not only 4-0 ATS (but also 4-0 SU!) the last 4 times they were an underdog. Don't be surprised if the Illini pull off another upset here as they certainly are playing their best basketball of the season and they're catching the Knights off of an exhausting road win. Illinois has the added confidence of winning their last two games by an average margin of victory of 20 points per game. The Illini are 4-1 SU this season when off of a game where they allowed 60 points or less. Also, they are 7-3 SU the L3 seasons combined when playing with 1 day or less of rest between games. Central Florida is 3-6 SU with those same parameters. Look for the Illini to advance but grab the points. 8* ILLINOIS early Wednesday evening |
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03-21-17 | Georgia Tech +5.5 v. Ole Miss | Top | 74-66 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Tuesday 10* Top Play Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+) @ Ole Miss Rebels @ 9 ET - This line opened up at a -4.5 for Ole Miss and the Rebels have quickly moved up to being a -5.5 point favorite. The line on this one may look a little "funny" considering that Ole Miss has covered 5 straight games and the Rebels straight-up records at home are 13-5 this season and 34-14 the last 3 seasons combined. Georgia Tech has awful straight-up records on the road of 2-10 this season and 9-27 the last 3 seasons combined. That said, how could Ole Miss be such a short favorite here? As long-time followers would expect I am on the contrarian side here and grabbing the Yellow Jackets but certainly it is a selection that is not without strong merit! Georgia Tech is on a 12-3 ATS run against teams with a winning record. Also, the Jackets are on an 8-2 ATS run against teams that average 80 points or more per game. Georgia Tech comes into this game on an 8-2 ATS run overall and, looking at their last 11 games, defense has certainly played a key role. The Yellow Jackets have held 8 of their last 11 opponents under 39% from the field! As for the Rebels, they are off of a big upset win at Syracuse but allowed 80 points and are allowing an average of 78 points per game over their last 13 games. By comparison, Georgia Tech has allowed 65 points or less in 8 of their last 11 games. Look for the Yellow Jackets to drop the Rebels to 16-22 SU when they are off of a game where they scored 80 points or more but I am grabbing all the points I can get in this one should the Jackets fall just short of the outright upset. 10* Top Play GEORGIA TECH Tuesday night |
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03-21-17 | Warriors v. Mavs OVER 207 | Top | 112-87 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
Bulldogs Best - Rickenbach NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Dallas Mavericks vs Golden State Warriors @ 8:35 ET - These teams met on December 30th and that game stayed under the total. However, prior to that, each of the last 4 meetings between these teams went over the total. The Mavericks are still fighting to have a shot at a playoff berth and they'll go hard tonight. The issue for the Mavs is they'll struggle to stop a Golden State offense that is starting to knock down shots at a high percentage again. They've adjust to life without Kevin Durant and have averaged 117 points per game in their last 3 games. The Warriors have hit 55% of their shots from the field in those 3 games and Golden State also has hit a high percentage of their three points over their last 4 games. Look for the Warriors to stay hot tonight but not also that Dallas has scored at least 111 points per game in 2 of their last 3 games and shot over 50% from the field in those 2 games plus over 40% from three point land in those two match-ups. The Mavericks have averaged 107 points per game in their last 5 home games and that recent hot shooting was coming on the road so don't look for them to slow down here. In fact, the Mavs have won 13 of their last 17 home games so they come into this match-up with plenty of confidence and won't hesitate to push the pace here. Dallas, after the midway point of a season, when facing a team that averages 106 points or more per game, has gone 18-10 to the over. Also, they've played 6 Tuesday games this season and ZERO have stayed under the total. 10* OVER the total in Dallas Tuesday night |
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03-21-17 | Bulls +6.5 v. Raptors | 120-122 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Tuesday 8* Chicago Bulls (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 7:05 ET - While the Raptors are very nearly locked into their playoff position - unlikely to catch Boston and unlikely to drop below Indiana - the Bulls are fighting for their playoff lives right now. Chicago is part of a grouping of 4 teams in the East - currently seeded from 7th to 10th - that are all only separated by 1.5 games in the standings. That makes this game critical for the Bulls and they are catching Toronto at a good time as the Raptors are off of a big win over the Pacers (the closest team to them in the standings). Chicago has certainly had the Raptors number with 11 straight wins over Toronto and an 11-0 ATS run for the Bulls in their match-ups. Chicago has had the past two days off and is 7-3 SU and ATS this season when they enter a game with two days of rest between games. The Bulls are also 24-14 ATS (and 27-11 ATS) the L3 seasons combined when playing with 2 days of rest between games. Chicago also now has a few games under their belt without Dwyane Wade as they adjust to life without the veteran player who is now out for the season with a fractured elbow. The Raptors are known for playing down to their level of competition and, off of that big win over Indiana, and with a strong Miami team on deck, don't be surprised if Toronto again falls short here. The Raptors are 6-11 ATS in their last 17 games against teams with a losing record. 8* CHICAGO BULLS Tuesday evening |
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03-20-17 | Warriors v. Thunder OVER 221 | Top | 111-95 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
TNT Top Game - Rickenbach NBA 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oklahoma City Thunder vs Golden State Warriors @ 8 ET - With Kevin Durant out for Golden State, this match-up will lack some of the defensive intensity that otherwise would be present. As a result, look for Oklahoma City to push the tempo extremely fast in this game as they look to create quick scoring chances against the KD-less Warriors. As for GS, their best bet will be red hot outside shooting, as usual, and Golden State comes into this one having shot a ridiculous 59% from the field in their last two games combined. Those blowout wins averaged 119.5 points per game and the Warriors now face a Thunder team that has won 5 straight games and is averaging 115 points per game in their last 6 games. That means a 118-116 type game (right in line with the current point spread on this game) would not be a surprised in this match-up and that is a double digit margin over the current total posted on this game. The result? Value for us! There have been just 4 unders in the last 16 games for the Thunder and I certainly like having 75% odds in our favor for the over in this one! OKC has shot 50% or better from the field in 4 straight games and 5 of their last 6. The Warriors are heating up again on offense and that includes shooting the 3-ball very well in their last 3 games combined. The Warriors are known for victimizing the Thunder from 3-point land and have averaged 15 three pointers per game in the last 5 meetings. With Golden State coming into this one hot, look for more of the same tonight as both teams "go off" with huge point totals amassed! 10* OVER the total in Oklahoma City |
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03-20-17 | Akron v. Texas-Arlington OVER 153 | Top | 69-85 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in UT-Arlington Mavericks vs Akron Zips @ 8 ET - UT-Arlington is 13-0 in home games this season and averages a ridiculous 85 points per game! However, this will be far from a "cakewalk" for the Mavericks because the Zips are a high-scoring team that shoots surprisingly well on the road. Akron is known for their 3-point shooting prowess and, even on the road, knock down 38.3% of their three pointers. UT-Arlington won't hesitate to push the pace at the home and this one sets up well to be another shootout. The Mavericks are off of a 105-89 win at BYU and are sky-high with confidence right now. The Zips are on a 6-2 run to the over in true road games and a fantastic 24-12 to the over in all road games the past 3 seasons combined. As a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points Akron has gone 4-1 to the over. Overall, the over is 20-11 in UT-Arlington home games the past 3 seasons combined. Also, in home games where the posted total is between 150 and 154.5 points the over has gone a perfect 4-0. The Zips are 20-5 their last 25 games and, in a match-up featuring two very hot teams, both off of upset wins, the teams are brimming with confidence and the focus will be on the offensive end and less about intense defense. This is what happens when teams are rolling and confident like these two teams are. 10* OVER the total in UT-Arlington |
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03-20-17 | 76ers +5 v. Magic | 109-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Monday 8* Philadelphia 76'ers (+) @ Orlando Magic @ 7:05 ET - The 76'ers just keep on covering. They won versus Boston yesterday and, even though this is a back to back spot for Philly, yesterday's game was an early afternoon start so the travel situation is truly not bad. Also, the Sixers have been a covering machine in the 2nd game of back to backs too with a 6-1 ATS mark in their last 7. Overall it's been an incredible 31-9 ATS run for the 76'ers. Philadelphia is also on a 6-0 ATS run against teams that allow 106 points or more per game while Orlando is on a 1-8 ATS run against teams that give up 106 points or more per game on average. Even though Jahlil Okafor hurt his knee in yesterday's game and is questionable tonight, the Sixers were -11 in the 12 minutes he was on the floor versus the Celtics. That means they were +17 with their "small ball" lineup and that should bode well for success against the Magic as well. Orlando is back from a west coast road trip and east coast teams often struggle in the first game back after traveling out west. Also, Nikola Vucevic is having issues with his achilles and that is likely to impact him if he plays tonight. The Magic are on a 10-18 ATS run overall and Orlando is off of an upset win as an underdog (at Phoenix Friday) and they are 5-10 ATS and 1-14 SU this when off of an outright win as a dog. Since Orlando is the fave here we can include SU stats in the equation and combining that 1-14 mark with the Sixers 6-0 ATS run noted above and Orlando's 1-8 ATS run noted above (both against poor defensive teams) we have a combined 28-2 (93%) mark favoring the 76'ers here! 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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03-20-17 | UCF v. Illinois State -5.5 | 63-62 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Monday 8* Illinois State Redbirds (-) vs Central Florida Golden Knights @ 7 ET - Tough spot for Central Florida away from home. As a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points the Golden Knights are on a long-term 6-16 ATS run. Illinois State is a perfect 16-0 SU at home this season. The Redbirds shook off a long layoff by shooting the ball extremely well against Cal-Irvine last week. Illinois State will now be playing just its 2nd game in the last 2 weeks while UCF will be playing for the 4th time in the last week and a half. Certainly not a brutal schedule for the Golden Knights but, at the same time, no one could argue the strong point that Redbirds have the fresher legs and certainly shook off the rust well against the Anteaters Wednesday. Central Florida has only covered 4 road games in 12 tries this season and the Golden Knights last 5 road losses have come by an average margin of 11.8 points per defeat. In 4 of their last 5 road games, UCF has been held to 40% or less from the field. The Redbirds shoot the ball very well in home game, including from three point land. Illinois State is riding an overall 21-2 winning run and Central Florida has a SU record of 19-34 the past 3 seasons combined when facing a team with a winning record. The Redbirds have won 14 of 18 games against teams with a winning record. Not enough value being given to the Birds home court here and they should win this one going away! 8* ILLINOIS STATE |
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03-19-17 | Cincinnati +4 v. UCLA | Top | 67-79 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach CBB Sunday 10* Top Play Cincinnati Bearcats (+) vs UCLA Bruins @ 9:40 ET - The Bearcats are allowing just 61 points per game on the season. That tough defense coupled with the resolve of a team not happy about again having to go west for tourney time (despite a fantastic season) makes Cincinnati a very tough team to face in this spot. UCLA will have its hands full with a team that is 23-3 in its last 26 games. The Bearcats have allowed just 38.5% shooting on the season. The Bruins have played a tougher schedule this season (but not by a big margin) and UCLA has allowed at least 43.7% from the field in 3 of their last 6 games. Their D may not be ready for the grudge match that Cincy can turn this game into because the Bruins certainly did not impress in their win over Kent State. Had they not shot the ball ridiculously well, UCLA likely would not have pulled away from the Golden Flashes the way they did. Of course Cincy will present a much more difficult challenge and the Bearcats were fantastic (against a much more formidable foe than Kent State) when they won huge Friday over Kansas State. That was a quality Wildcats team that Cincinnati knocked off and coach Mick Cronin is doing a fantastic job with this team. The Bruins are a little banged up and that has this one set up perfectly for an upset. The Bearcats are a long-term 7-3 ATS as a neutral court dog in a range of a 3.5 to 6 points and all 7 of those wins were OUTRIGHT victories. Could this be another upset? I am grabbing all the points I can get my hands on but an outright win for Cincy is the expectation. In terms of the cover if the Cats fall short, note that UCLA is only 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with a winning record. Also, the Bruins are 3-7 ATS in games with a posted total in the 150s this season and UCLA is 3-8 ATS when off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more. Look for the Bruins to drop to 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games. 10* CINCINNATI |
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03-19-17 | Rhode Island v. Oregon OVER 140 | Top | 72-75 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
Bulldog's Best - Rickenbach CBB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oregon Ducks vs Rhode Island Rams @ 7:10 ET - The Ducks were already on a strong run to the over but the value in overs involving Oregon is even stronger since the loss of key defensive post presence Chris Boucher. The Ducks game versus Iona flew over the total and, prior to that, Oregon also allowed 58% shooting from the field against Arizona. It has been 3 straight overs for the Ducks and the over is 8-1 in their last 9 games. The Rams are coming off of a result that also bodes well for another over here. Rhode Island put up 84 points on Creighton despite only connecting on 19% of their three pointers! That says a lot right there! The Bluejays put up 72 points on the Rams despite shooting a modest 40% from the field and 30% from three point land. With Boucher out for the Ducks, Rhode Island will enjoy success in the paint against Oregon but I certainly don't expect the Rams defense to be able to slow down the high-flying Ducks as they've scored at least 80 in 4 of their last 5 games. The over is 4-2 in Rams neutral site games this season and the over is 9-5 in the Ducks last 14 games against teams with a winning record. The Rams are averaging 74 points per game this season and the Ducks are averaging 80 points per game on the season but this total is being held down because each team has some decent defensive stats. But the key is the Boucher injury for Oregon and the fact that the Rams defense is not use to facing the elite level of offensive playmakers that a team like the Ducks brings to this match-up. 10* OVER the total in Oregon |
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03-19-17 | Wolves v. Pelicans OVER 208 | 109-123 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Sunday 8* OVER the total in New Orleans Pelicans vs Minnesota Timberwolves @ 6:05 ET - Each of the last 5 meetings between these teams in New Orleans has resulted in an over. Overall, 6 straight meetings in this series have resulted in an over. The Pelicans come into this game having gone over the total in 3 of their last 4 games. New Orleans has allowed at least 112 points in 3 of their last 4 games and they've averaged scoring 116 points in these 4 games. I expect more of the same Sunday as Minnesota also comes into this game red hot again on offense. The Timberwolves have seen each of their last 3 games go over the total and Minnesota is averaging 109.3 points per game in those 3 games. The T-wolves have allowed 115 points per game in these 3 games. The over is 9-2 this season when Minny enters a game on an over streak of 3 games or more. The over is 74-45 in New Orleans home games the past 3 seasons combined and also 26-16 when off of a win by a double digit margin. Off of their big win by 16 points versus the Rockets Friday, the Pelicans offense stays hot and helps to send this one flying over the total. 8* OVER the total in New Orleans |
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03-19-17 | Michigan State +8 v. Kansas | 70-90 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Sunday 8* Michigan State Spartans (+) vs Kansas Jayhawks @ 5:15 ET - Most will be lining up on top-seeded, experience-laden Kansas here. But how can you discount a Tom Izzo coached team that, though loaded with freshmen, has now had a full season to mature those players? The Spartans looked fantastic in knocking off a Miami team that was quite solid this season. The Hurricanes even had a win over Duke this season and the fact that Sparty came back from an early 12 point deficit against the Canes says even more about this Michigan State team. The Spartans may be young but they are uber-talented and, even though they are only 4-3 in their last 7 games, those 3 losses all came by 5 points or less. Now they are getting 8 points against a Kansas team that certainly is a high-quality team but that also benefited from (in my opinion) a down year in the Big 12. In terms of the better Big 12 teams, note that Kansas did go a combined 3-1 against Baylor and West Virginia but all 3 wins came by 5 points or less. Overall, the Jayhawks have struggled as a favorite this season (10-17 ATS) and they are on a 1-5 ATS run the last three seasons combined in neutral court games with a posted total in a range of 145 to 149.5 points. In a neutral court game with a posted total in the 145 to 149.5 range, the Spartans have an incredible long-term mark of 13-5 ATS. Also, this season, Michigan State has gone 9-3 ATS in their games against teams that average 77 points or more per game. These teams are actually quite similar and, though the Jayhawks have an experience edge, the Spartans are about as dangerous of a young dog as a team could have to face. Sparty is maturing quickly and that makes them extra tough in a spot like this where everyone is counting them out and they are so talented and playing with nothing to lose. I love well-coached dogs in spots like this. Grab the big points! 8* MICHIGAN STATE |
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03-19-17 | Wichita State v. Kentucky -4.5 | 62-65 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 35 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Sunday 8* Kentucky Wildcats (-) vs Wichita State Shockers @ 2:40 ET - With all due respect to Wichita State, their strength of schedule is just not on par with that of Kentucky's. That is why, when I hear the talking heads discussing all the metrics and why Wichita State is poised for the upset I just shake my head. Level of competition is perhaps more important than any other stat when looking at how teams match up. That's not to say the Shockers can't pull off the upset here because, as we all know, anything can happen in any given game. However, the point is that the odds of that are actually rather slim. The Wildcats have played a far tougher schedule and come into this game having won 12 straight games. Also, taking a look at Kentucky's 30 wins this season, all but one have come by at least 5 points. The lone exception (out of 30!) was a 3-point win over North Carolina. Again, no disrespect to Wichita State, but the Shockers are not the Tar Heels! The concern for Wichita State in this match-up is they're going to have to shoot very well to keep up with the potent Wildcats offense. Causing concern in that regard is that the Shockers have been held under 40% in 3 of their last 4 games. The Shockers had a big rebounding edge over Dayton Friday and that was a key to their victory. They won't have that same edge over a 'stacked' Kentucky team. Also, the Wildcats are 21-2 SU in their games against teams that allow 64 points or less per game so, as good as the Shockers defensive stats are, don't look for Wichita State to hold this team down for very long stretches! Wichita State is on a 7-16 ATS run in all tournament games. 8* KENTUCKY |
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03-18-17 | Iowa State v. Purdue +1 | 76-80 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach CBB Saturday 8* Purdue Boilermakers (+) vs Iowa State Cyclones @ 9:40 PM ET - Iowa State is an athletic team that scores a lot of points but isn't known for hard nosed defense or the ability to get a lot of key stops. That said, I like Purdue, able to be physical and strong in the paint, to dictate the flow of this one. If the Cyclones struggle to hit outside shots in this one they're in trouble because they won't find many open lanes to the bucket nor much space in the paint against a Boilermakers team that will also have a huge edge on the glass in this match-up. With a big rebounding edge, physical defense, and the confidence of a team that has lost to no one other than red hot Michigan since January, this Purdue team is going to be a tough out in this match-up and I don't see the softer team from the Big 12 as being able to get it done here. The Cyclones red hot current run has been keyed by hot shooting but they'll face the toughest defense they've seen since West Virginia early this month and that was a loss for Iowa State. Keep in mind, the Boilermakers offense is not too shabby either! The Boilers average 80 points per game and that is noteworthy because Iowa State, when past the midway point of a season and facing a team that averages 77 points or more per game, has a long-term record of 39-71 straight-up! The Boilermakers are a stellar 11-1 SU (and 9-1 ATS) in their games this season against teams that are averaging 77 points or more per game. 8* PURDUE |
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03-18-17 | Jazz -5.5 v. Bulls | 86-95 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Saturday 8* Utah Jazz (-) @ Chicago Bulls @ 9:05 ET - Though it may seem a little uncomfortable laying sizable points on the road, is the perfect spot to do just that. Utah is fired up off of a loss and they catch the Bulls playing the 2nd game of a back to back and also it's the 5th game in 7 days for a Chicago team that used a lot of energy trying to rally from a big deficit at Washington last night. The Bulls have lost 7 of their last 8 games. The Jazz had won 6 of their last 7 before the loss at Cleveland Thursday. Utah is playing this game with home loss revenge and that is a situation that has seen them go 37-13 (74%) ATS the last 3 seasons combined! Also, the Bulls are an ugly 14-27 ATS in Saturday games the past 3 seasons combined and also 10-19 ATS in games against Northwest Division opponents. Road rout should result here. 8* UTAH |
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03-18-17 | Middle Tennessee v. Butler -2.5 | 65-74 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
Bulldog's Best - Rickenbach CBB Saturday 8* Butler Bulldogs (-) vs Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders @ 7:10 ET - MTSU would be fun to root for. They are the lowest remaining seed in the tourney (#12) and it's always fun to root for the underdog. However, sports betting isn't about having fun or rooting for the "fun choice" it's about finding value and making money. In this case, I feel the Blue Raiders are getting way too much respect. I know they are veteran team. I know they are a battle-tested team. But this is still a Middle Tennessee State team whose home is Conference USA and that is a conference that is loaded with weak teams. The schedule for the Blue Raiders is nothing like what Butler faces and I look for the Bulldogs to win this one going away. MTSU's points allowed average of 63.6 on the season certainly is impressive but keep in mind the level of competition and also keep in mind this fact: Butler, a defensive powerhouse in their own right as well, has excelled against other top defending teams. The Bulldogs are 17-5 ATS the last 3 season (including a perfect 6-0 ATS this season) when they are facing an opponent who allows an average of 64 points or less per game. The Bulldogs also are 5-0 ATS the past 3 seasons combined in NCAA Tournament games. With the markets favoring MTSU in this game (and a downward line move as a result) the small fave is offering extreme line value here. I'll take it with a solid Big East foe and fade a CUSA foe that is highly unlikely to again hit 54% from three point land like they did against Minnesota Thursday! 8* BUTLER |
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03-18-17 | Blazers +3.5 v. Hawks | 113-97 | Win | 100 | 6 h 1 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Saturday 8* Portland Trail Blazers (+) @ Atlanta Hawks @ 6:05 ET - The Blazers are off of a huge win over the Spurs at San Antonio but that was back on Wednesday so they'll have no problem being ready to go here. The motivational factor helps as they lost at home versus the Hawks last month. Since that loss the Trail Blazers went 3-1 at home. Portland is also 3-1 in their last 4 road games and I like their chances here against a slumping Hawks team. Off of a home loss the Hawks have now failed to cover 10 of their last 13 games since knocking off the Blazers in Portland. As you can see, Atlanta has been in a downward spiral since the very game that is creating this nice revenge spot for the Blazers here. While many will likely look to fade the Trail Blazers since they are off of an upset of the Spurs, Portland is actually 23-11 SU (and 21-13 ATS) the L3 seasons combined when off of an upset win as an underdog. The Hawks are only 18-28 ATS as a favorite this season and their recent 3-10 ATS slump continues here. 8* PORTLAND |
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03-18-17 | Northwestern +11.5 v. Gonzaga | 73-79 | Win | 100 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Saturday 8* Northwestern Wildcats (+) vs Gonzaga Bulldogs @ 5:15 ET - The Wildcats have only lost 3 games by more than 10 points this entire season. Even though Gonzaga is the #2 team in the nation, Northwestern has faced the tougher schedule this season (by far) because of playing in the Big Ten. Now the Bulldogs go from facing an overmatched South Dakota State team (remember that team wasn't even strong in its own weak conference - Summit League) to facing a Wildcats team that has wins over Big Ten teams like Michigan and Wisconsin this season. Keep in mind, we don't need Northwestern to win this game either we just need them to keep it to single digits and I don't see the Cats getting blown out here. Thursday's final score versus Vandy was close but Northwestern showed a lot of moxie in hanging on after giving up a 15 point lead. As for Gonzaga's win over the Jackrabbits, the Bulldog's trailed for nearly the entire first half against a team that had no business even being in the Big Dance. This game will be much closer than many are expecting and the Wildcats are dangerous as their confidence grows with each big step they step. Finally in the Big Dance, the win over Vanderbilt was huge. The Cats are 9-2 ATS this season (and 22-8 ATS the L3 seasons combined) in non-conference action. This will be the 12th time in the last 20 years that Gonzaga has been a neutral court favorite of 9.5 to 12 points and they've had just 4 covers so far. Look for them to be 4-8 ATS after today's game is in the books! Too many points here! 8* NORTHWESTERN |
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03-18-17 | Wisconsin +6.5 v. Villanova | 65-62 | Win | 100 | 5 h 19 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Saturday 8* Wisconsin Badgers (+) vs Villanova Wildcats @ 2:40 ET - Tough match-up for Villanova and that is why you see the #1 team in the nation priced as such a small favorite in this spot. Don't be surprised if the Badgers pull off the upset here and that is where there certainly is great value with grabbing all the points you can get in this one. Wisconsin has experience, size, and shooters. They're playing with a chip on their shoulders after losing the Big Ten Tourney to Michigan. The Badgers have all the right ingredients, including recent trips to the Sweet Sixteen, to spring to the upset here. It is so tough to repeat as champs and that is the challenge facing the Wildcats right now. They just don't have the same fire burning inside them that they did last year and, as strong as coach Jay Wright is, he's struggling to get this team to play with the sense of urgency they need to at this time of year. They managed to survive the 1st round as they woke up in the 2nd half but but the Badgers are a tough draw for the Cats and certainly won't be as forgiving in the 2nd half as 16th seeded Mount Saint Mary's was. Villanova enters this game on a 6-10 ATS run while Wisconsin has covered 4 of its last 5 with the only non-cover being the loss to Michigan and the Wolverines are simply in the midst of a magical run right now. Athletic and talented big men with good size plus the experience factor and the hot shooting of Koenig all make the Badgers a dangerous underdog here. Look for the Wildcats to drop to 1-5 ATS this season when facing an opponent that is allowing an average of 64 points or less per game on the season. Look for tough D from the Badgers here. 8* WISCONSIN |
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03-17-17 | Raptors v. Pistons -4 | 87-75 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Friday 8* Detroit Pistons (-) vs Toronto Raptors @ 7:35 ET - The Raptors are off of a home loss to the Thunder and are now back on the road where they are on a 2-6 ATS skid. Making matters worse for Toronto is the fact that they are likely in the wrong place at the wrong time. Detroit is coming off of embarrassing back to back losses at Cleveland and then versus Utah and the Pistons are fired up about a bounce back effort here. Detroit got a 1 point win at Toronto last month but revenge has not played out well at all for the Raptors this season. Toronto has gone 2-9 SU and 3-7-1 ATS this season when playing with home loss revenge. The Pistons are a solid 13-8 ATS when off of a loss by a double digit margin this season. Also, the past 3 seasons combined, Detroit is a strong 15-8 ATS when they are off of a game where they were held to 85 points or less. The Pistons were on a 10-2 (SU and ATS!) run in home games before the embarrassing loss to the Jazz Wednesday. Look for a big bounce back here as the Raptors road misery continues! 8* DETROIT |
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03-17-17 | Celtics v. Nets OVER 215 | Top | 98-95 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
Market Mover - Rickenbach NBA Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Brooklyn Nets vs Boston Celtics @ 7:35 ET - The very first total that popped up on this game was a 223 yesterday and this total has now dropped a full 8 points to 215. Of course the line move is because Isaiah Thomas is expected to miss for the Celtics tonight. However, Brooklyn is one of the worst teams in the league (particularly on defense) this season and when Thomas missed earlier this season and the Celtics faced a weak foe (Orlando), Boston scored 117 points. I expect a very "loosely played" contest tonight as Boston lets up some on the defensive end after back to back big wins while Brooklyn simply continues to "run and gun" as they're certainly just "playing out the string" on the season. The Nets last 3 games have totaled an average of 230 points. The Celtics are off of a 117 point performance versus Minnesota. Also, in Boston's last 4 road games they have allowed at least 109 points in 3 of the 4 games. The over is 9-4 this season when the Celtics are off of a win by a margin of 10 points or more. The over is 15-7 this season when the Nets are facing a team that averages 106 points or more per game on the season. Keep in mind, Brooklyn is allowing 114 points per game on the season and this is a back to back spot for the Nets. Look for the over to improve to 8-4 this season when the Nets are in the 2nd game of a back to back. 10* OVER the total in Brooklyn |
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03-17-17 | Wichita State v. Dayton OVER 143.5 | Top | 64-58 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Dayton Flyers vs Wichita State Shockers @ 7:10 ET - Certainly I have plenty of respect for both of these defenses but both of these teams have potent offenses with veteran leadership and both clubs shoot the 3-ball extremely well. That said, and with a drop on the total from the 148 range to the 143 range, I won't hesitate to step in large on the over in this one. The Flyers finished the season with back to back losses and much of that had to do with struggles on defense. In fact, Dayton has now allowed at least 45.5% from the field in 3 of its last 4 games. Also, the Flyers have given up 70 points or more in 8 of their last 9 games. Wichita State has won 15 straight games and they average 82 points per game on the season. The Shockers, before their 71-51 win over Illinois State, had scored 77 points or more in 12 of their 14 prior games. Wichita State has knocked down at least 42% of their threes in 7 of their last 9 games. The Flyers have hit at least 40% of their threes in 8 straight games! This is hot shooting folks that is simply not normal! That's why I'll gladly fade the line move here because I also expect this game to be close enough late that there will be plenty of opportunity for "scramble points" with late threes from the team trailing and plenty of free throws from the team in the lead. The over was 11-0 in Dayton's 11 games prior to getting bounced out of the A-10 tourney. The over was 4-1 in Wichita State's last 5 regular season games prior to the MVC tourney. The over is 12-6 long-term when the Shockers enter a game off of 7 or more days of rest. As for the Flyers, the over is 4-2 this season in games where they were an underdog. 10* OVER the total in Dayton |
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03-17-17 | Rhode Island v. Creighton +1.5 | Top | 84-72 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
First Round Game of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Friday 10* Top Play Creighton Bluejays (+) vs Rhode Island Rams @ 4:30 ET - Creighton has gone from being a 2 point fave here to a 1.5 point dog as of early gameday morning. Of course the Blue Jays are not the same team without Mo Watson BUT the key is that they've had plenty of time to adjust to life without their point guard and they've actually started to gel without their floor leader. They made it all the way to the Big East Championship before losing to Villanova, the defending champs. Getting wins over Providence and Xavier to earn the right to play the Wildcats was big for the confidence of this Bluejays team heading into the Big Dance. Creighton has played a tougher schedule than has Rhode Island but the betting markets are basically saying the committee was wrong in making the Bluejays a 6 seed and the Rams an 11 see and that the odds makers were wrong in making Creighton the favorite in this match-up. As long-time followers know, I'd rather side against the public and this Rhode Island team may have already used up its good fortune in winning the A-10 championship. They certainly caught a break with Dayton getting knocked out of that tourney and they beat VCU for the championship as Virginia Commonwealth simply had a horrific shooting performance and still only lost the game by 7 points. I am not sold on Rhode Island being at quite the same level as Creighton based on level of competition faced and I look for the Rams to drop to 0-4 SU and ATS in their last 4 against Big East teams. Look for the Bluejays 7-footer to also enjoy success against a smaller RI frontcourt. By the way, the Blue Jays are 13-0 SU in non-conference action this season. I expect that record to go to 14-0 here as Rhode Island used up their "mojo" in winning the A-10 Tourney. 10* CREIGHTON BLUEJAYS |
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03-17-17 | Jacksonville State v. Louisville -19.5 | 63-78 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 55 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Friday 8* Louisville Cardinals (-) vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks @ 2:45 ET - I am well aware of the fact that Jacksonville State head coach Ray Harper was previously with Western Kentucky and, as a result, has some familiarity with Louisville and head coach Rick Pitino. However, even with a more talented team (Hilltoppers) from a more talented conference (SunBelt) coach Harper and company still got crushed in their meetings with the Cardinals and I don't see Louisville taking their foot off of the gas in this one. Off of a disappointing loss to Duke in the ACC tourney, the Cardinals are anxious to get rid of the taste of that bitter defeat and march onward in their next opportunity, the Big Dance, after a one-year hiatus last year due to a self-imposed ban. As you can see, there are multiple reasons for Pitino and company to bring a ton of energy, effort, and motivation to this game. Making this play even stronger is the fact that the Cardinals have performed very well as a large favorite this season. This line has dropped from the low twenties down to under 20 and that is offering even more line value here too. Louisville, as a favorite of 14 points or more, has gone 7-1 ATS this season! The Gamecocks just don't have the talent level to compete for a full 40 minutes here and the Cardinals won't hesitate to give them a full dose of their pressure defense. Jacksonville State did lose by 26 points in games against Missouri State and Maryland this season. The Cards are 4-1 ATS when they are off of a loss to a conference rival and 9-2 ATS in non-conference games this season. Huge talent disparity here. 8* LOUISVILLE |
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03-17-17 | Oklahoma State v. Michigan OVER 153.5 | 91-92 | Win | 100 | 4 h 11 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Friday 8* OVER the total in Michigan Wolverines vs Oklahoma State Cowboys @ 12:15 ET - Michigan comes into the tourney with a ton of confidence after what they accomplished in the Big Ten tourney. Oklahoma State can put up points with anyone though and that is why a shootout should be expected here. The Cowboys defense has been shredded for 89 points per game in their last 3 games and that led to a 3-0 run to the over for OSU heading into the Big Dance. Oklahoma State is 4-0 to the over in neutral site games this season. Michigan wrapped up the season (including Big Ten Tourney where they took home the Championship) by going 8-1 to the over. The Wolverines shot at least 50% from the field in 6 of their last 9 games. The Cowboys scored at least 80 points in 14 of their last 17 games! Both teams shoot the 3-ball very well with Oklahoma State at 40% on the season and Michigan at 38% from downtown on the season. Surprisingly, the Wolverines allowed only 57 points in their Big Ten Championship victory over Wisconsin but that had more to do with a struggling Badger offense than it did with Michigan's defense. It is noteworthy because the over is 22-9 the L3 seasons combined when Michigan is off of a game where they allowed 60 points or less. Also, the Wolverines are 17-6 to the over in games where they are a favorite. Oklahoma State's "average game" this season totals 162 points and we should see at least that here as I have a ton of respect for the Cowboys scoring abilities but also know that the Wolverines are on fire right now and loaded with confidence and their offensive production will not be stopped. 8* OVER in Michigan |
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03-16-17 | Florida Gulf Coast v. Florida State OVER 147 | Top | 80-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Florida State Seminoles vs Florida Gulf Coast Eagles @ 9:20 ET - Look for plenty of fireworks on offense in this one. Florida Gulf Coast is averaging 79.4 points per game this season but they won't be able to stop a Florida State offense that averages 82.5 points per game. This is the 3rd trip to the Big Dance in the last 5 years for the Eagles and they made a lot of noise as "Dunk City" a few years back. Though this team has changed its mantra from that time they are still a team that can put up a ton of points but with a defense that will struggle against ACC level competition. The over is 4-1 in the Eagles NCAA Tourney games and, long-term the over is 12-6 in Florida Gulf Coast games in non-conference action. The over is 3-1 the last 3 seasons in Noles games where they are a neutral court favorite in a range of 9.5 to 12 points. FSU enters this game on a 5-game under streak but they have allowed 71 points or more in 7 of their last 9 games. The Eagles offense has been hot (81 points per game) in their last 7 games so I would not be surprised to see an FSU win in the 87-75 ranger here which is a full 15 points above the current total posted on this game. The over is 6-2 this season in games where Florida State was favored by 11 points or more! The Seminoles averaged scoring 96.6 points per game in those 8 games. They'll score plenty here as well but the athleticism of Florida Gulf Coast will allow them to score plenty as well in a match-up that should play out as a very fast-paced affair. 10* OVER the total in Florida State |
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03-16-17 | Jazz v. Cavs OVER 206 | Top | 83-91 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
TV Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Cavaliers vs Utah Jazz @ 7:05 ET - The Jazz shut down the Pistons at Detroit last night but previously had allowed 50% or better from the field in 5 of their last 8 games. Also, after a blowout win, it is only natural that a team has a tendency to unconsciously decrease defensive intensity. As a result, Utah is 15-5 to the over this season when they are off of a win by 10 points or more. The Jazz had allowed 108 points or more in 6 of their last 8 games before yesterday's domination of Detroit. Utah now faces the red hot shooting of the Cavaliers. Cleveland comes into this game having averaged 118.7 points per game in their last 3 games. The Cavs have averaged 54% from the field in these 3 games. Also, what is interesting is that the Cavaliers defense has allowed at least 96 shots from the field in each of its last 3 games. There will be plenty of scoring opportunities for both clubs in this one and 14 of the last 19 meetings between these teams in Cleveland have resulted in an over. Look for more of the same in this one and I'll take advantage of a line drop here that has already seen this total go from an opener of 210 down to as low as a 206 as of Thursday morning. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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03-16-17 | Xavier v. Maryland -130 | Top | 76-65 | Loss | -130 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
Blowout Rout - Rickenbach CBB Thursday 10* Top Play Maryland Terrapins (-) vs Xavier Musketeers @ 6:50 ET - Both teams started hot and then struggled late in the season but for different reasons and that is the key to the value being offered here. The 6th seeded Terrapins are laying a very small number (so small in fact that I would recommend grabbing the value on the money line here) even though they're taking on an 11th seeded Xavier team that was worried late in the season about even getting an invite. The Musketeers were worried with good reason because they lost 7 of their last 10 games. This rough stretch for Xavier came after Edmond Sumner was lost to a knee injury at the end of January. Over their last 10 games of the season the Musketeers 3 wins included 2 against DePaul. The Blue Demons finished the season 9-23. In other words, the only impressive thing that Xavier has done over the past 5 weeks is beat Butler. The Bulldogs had been hot from three point land and then had a bad shooting performance against Xavier and, as a result, the Musketeers won by 5 points. Not impressed at all with what this Musketeers team has done without Sumner and Maryland comes into this one fired up after coach Turgeon laid into them after a completely unacceptable performance against Northwestern in the Big Ten tourney. The Terps did struggle down the stretch but, unlike Xavier, they have their key personnel on deck for this game and they've been much better on the defensive end than the Musketeers this season. Xaviers is 3-9 ATS as an underdog this season and 2-7 ATS when off of a loss in conference action. The Terrapins are 14-4 SU the L3 seasons combined when they are off of a loss in conference action. Turgeon has his team in full bounce back mode again here. 10* MARYLAND |
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03-16-17 | Middle Tennessee v. Minnesota +1 | 81-72 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Thursday 8* Minnesota Golden Gophers (+) vs Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders @ 4 ET - The Blue Raiders upset Michigan State last March in a #15 versus #2 match-up in one of the biggest upsets ever. As a result, in my opinion, Middle Tennessee State is getting way too much respect here! This is #12 versus #5 match-up and the 12th seeded Blue Raiders are now a favorite after the very earliest of lines had Minnesota a 3 point choice. Keep in mind, the Golden Gophers are playing close to home and are use to traveling to Wisconsin to face the Badgers in Madison. This game is in Milwaukee and Golden Gophers have battled in the strong Big Ten all season long. Conversely, the Blue Raiders have toiled away in the abyss that is otherwise known as Conference USA. Over the past 5 weeks, UAB (one game over .500 on the season) is the only team with a winning record (other than Marshall) that MTSU has faced. Minnesota has been doing battle with teams like Wisconsin, Maryland, Michigan State, Michigan...you get my point! I know Middle Tennessee State returned a lot of talent from last year's team but after what happened in March with Michigan State last year, you can bet that Minnesota is fully focused on MTSU and will not overlook this team. That's bad news for the Blue Raiders because the Golden Gophers play very solid defense and they'll be ready to bounce back after a rare poor effort versus a red hot Michigan team Saturday. The Gophers have a long-term mark of 10-3 SU and ATS against CUSA opponents. Middle Tennessee State has only covered 4 of 10 games this season when off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. The Blue Raiders 30 wins look great on paper but strength of schedule is a big difference maker in this match-up. The Golden Gophers will be ready! 8* MINNESOTA |
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03-16-17 | Princeton +6.5 v. Notre Dame | 58-60 | Win | 100 | 5 h 44 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Thursday 8* Princeton Tigers (+) vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ 12:15 PM ET - A 12th seeded Ivy League team has upset a 5th seed in 2 of the past 3 years with Yale over Baylor last year and Harvard over Cincinnati three years ago. Of course we don't need an upset to get the cash here but the point is that the Ivy League is often underestimated in terms of their ability to step up on a stage like this. Notre Dame coach Mike Brey has said this is the best defensive team he has had in his tenure with the Fighting Irish but they allowed 51% to Florida State and 61% to Duke in their last two games of the ACC Tourney. I know the Tigers are certainly not the Seminoles or the Blue Devils but Princeton certainly also has the confidence of a team that has won 19 straight games and that rallied from a double digit second half deficit to get by Penn in OT and have a chance to win the Ivy League title, which they did, with a win over Yale. Princeton coach Mitch Henderson played on Tigers teams that notched big wins in the Big Dance and he has this team playing extremely well. They won't be intimidated in this situation and don't be surprised if their solid defense, determination, grit, and fearlessness go a long way in this one. The Tigers have a long-term mark of 12-6 ATS against ACC teams. The Fighting Irish have a long-term mark of 4-10 ATS (and 3-11 SU!) in neutral court games with posted total in the 130 to 134.5 range. 8* PRINCETON |
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03-15-17 | USC v. Providence +2.5 | Top | 75-71 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
First Four Best Bet - Rickenbach CBB Wednesday 10* Top Play Providence Friars (+) vs USC Trojans @ 9:10 ET - This line opened up at a pick'em and has moved to USC -3 and, of course, much of this has to do with revenge as the Trojans lost to the Friars in the Big Dance last year. Of course revenge is important in handicapping but sometimes it has a tendency to be overplayed and this results in value on the other side. That is precisely the case here. This isn't a "normal" in-season revenge situation. This is a "win or go home" game and just because the Trojans have motivation to avenge last year's loss it does not mean the Friars aren't also motivated. They want to advance! Providence has unfinished business from last year's Big Dance and they are ready to roll in this tourney. Keep in mind, 7 of the 10 Big East teams made the tournament and the reality is that the Friars played just as tough of a schedule as USC did this season. Also, even though Providence won by just a single point in last year's tourney meeting with the Trojans, they actually took 10 more shots from the field and 11 more shots from the free throw line. The point is that the Friars would have won much more easily had they shot better than 40% and had USC not shot a ridiculous 54% from the field and 46% from three point land. The Trojans are only 3-6 ATS (and 2-7 SU!) in their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. This is in stark contrast to a Friars team that is a solid 13-9 SU (and stellar 17-5 ATS!) in their games against teams with a winning record. This is a classic case where revenge has been over-played and resulted in value on the other side. I'll take it! Grab all the points you can get but the Friars do have a great shot at the outright "upset" here. 10* PROVIDENCE |
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03-15-17 | Blazers v. Spurs OVER 210 | Top | 110-106 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Antonio Spurs vs Portland Trail Blazers @ 8:05 ET - Even though this is a back to back for the Trail Blazers they'll still have plenty of fresh legs. That's because no one had to play extended minutes last night at New Orleans because Portland had a dreadful performance and got blown out. The Blazers managed just 77 points because they shot only 30% from the field in one of the worst performances by any team this entire season in the NBA. Needless to say a bounce back can be expected here and they catch the Spurs in a bit of a downward cycle on the defensive end. Looking at the Spurs last 5 games, they had one strong performance (against Golden State) but allowed an average of 104 points per game (and 47% shooting from the field) in the other 4 games combined. Portland is now off of back to back unders but they had gone over the total in 7 straight games prior. The Trail Blazers defense is a definite weakness and they've allowed 113 points per game in their last 3 games against the Spurs. Each of Portland's last two games at San Antonio have gone over the total and, overall, the over is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings between these teams. The Blazers, when past the midway point of a season and facing a team that averages 106 points or more per game, have gone 20-8 to the over! After last night's nonsense look for a typical Trail Blazers game tonight and the Spurs will be willing to "run and gun" a bit here as they were off yesterday and have 2 off days on deck after this game. 10* OVER the total in San Antonio |
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03-15-17 | Jazz v. Pistons +3.5 | 97-83 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
Double Burial - Rickenbach NBA Wednesday 8* Detroit Pistons (+) vs Utah Jazz @ 7:35 ET - Calling his a rare Double Burial situation as the Pistons not only got crushed by the Cavaliers last night (128 to 96), they also lost at Utah 110 to 77 in mid-January. Those two ugly losses make this the perfect spot to back Detroit in revenge mode. I am well aware of the fact that this is a back to back spot for the Pistons but their most recent back to back saw them upset the Cavaliers (also as a home dog) back on Thursday. Now they are a home dog to a Jazz team that is off of a huge win versus the Clippers and also has a big game on deck at Cleveland to face the defending champion Cavaliers tomorrow night. Detroit is on a 10-2 (SU and ATS) run since January 1st in home games. Going a little further back it is a 13-3 SU run for the Pistons in home games. The Jazz, prior to their big win over the Clips, had failed to cover 8 of their last 13 games. Utah also has failed to cover 3 of its last 4 road games. The Pistons are 7-2 (SU and ATS) against Northwest Division opponents this season but one of those losses was the aforementioned burial at Utah in January. Couple that with last night's burial at Cleveland and the Pistons are in double burial bounce back mode here. They'll be hungry and I look for them to get revenge at home but will gladly grab the generous available points. 8* DETROIT |
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03-15-17 | North Carolina Central v. UC-Davis +3.5 | 63-67 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Wednesday 8* UC-Davis Aggies (+) vs North Carolina Central Eagles @ 6:40 ET - Similar to my play on Kansas State last night, this is another situation where I feel like we have the coaching edge with Jim Les and the Aggies. Coach Les led Bradley, his alma mater, to the Sweet 16 ten years ago and the veteran coach has done a great job with UC-Davis this season. The Aggies have played a tougher schedule on the season then have the Aggies. I know North Carolina Central got hot at the right time to make it through their conference tourney and earn this bid. However, they play in a very weak conference and the Eagles, prior to the conference tournament, suffered a loss to Savannah State and then one of the nation's worst teams, North Carolina AT & T, to wrap up the regular season. Give the Eagles credit for then getting the job done when they had to in the conference tourney but those 2 losses definitely show a few "chinks in the armor" heading into this one. I know LeVelle Moton was coach of the year for the MEAC this season but it truly is a weak conference and getting Cal-Davis plus some points here is an added bonus. The Big West Conference, though certainly not a powerhouse, is stronger than the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference and the Aggies faced tougher competition to get here. The Eagles have the better record and that is what is impacting this line and giving us some solid line value. 8* UC-DAVIS |
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03-14-17 | Kansas State +1 v. Wake Forest | Top | 95-88 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
First Four Best Bet - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Kansas State Wildcats (+) vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons @ 9:10 ET - No disrespect intended to the Demon Deacons Danny Manning but, in my opinion, the Wildcats (with Bruce Weber at the helm) have a significant coaching edge in this match-up. Weber will be coaching in his 3rd Big Dance in 5 seasons with Kansas State. They're taking on a Wake Forest team that is a combined 43-51 (and only 16-38 in ACC) since Manning took over as the head coach. The Demon Deacons allowed at least 47.5% from the field in 5 of their last 7 games and, keep in mind, this was all during a crucial stretch for Wake Forest as they were trying to get to 20 wins. They know they were somewhat fortunate to even make the Big Dance as they finished with 19 wins. The point about the above though is that they needed strong D and it just wasn't there that often down the stretch. That doesn't bode well for their chances here as they now take on a Kansas State team that allowed only 54.3 points per game over their last 3 games as they really turned up the heat on defense. The Wildcats won 3 of their last 4 games (and went 4-0 ATS) with the lone SU loss coming by just a single point versus West Virginia. Wake Forest also finished the season on a hot run thanks to some strong shooting but they've been off since Wednesday and that very well could have cooled their hot shooting touch. Not only that but if the Wildcats continue to play defense like they have been, the Demon Deacons will really struggle to regain any type of offensive flow in this one. 10* KANSAS STATE |
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03-14-17 | Blazers v. Pelicans OVER 216.5 | Top | 77-100 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
Western Conference Total of the Year - Rickenbach NBA 10* Top Play OVER the total in New Orleans Pelicans vs Portland Trail Blazers @ 8:05 ET - Both of these teams have been involved in some OT games of late so that has to be factored into the handicap of this total of course. However, even after eliminating overtime from the equation, Portland has averaged 112 points per game in regulation time of their last 9 games. As for the Pelicans, they struggled on offense (as most teams do) against the Spurs and Jazz. However, other than a disappointing effort against Toronto, the Pelicans other 4 games dating back to February 26th have seen them score at least 105 points in all 4 games. New Orleans averaged 109 points per game in those 4 games. Look for more of the same in this game as the Pelicans are home where there have allowed an average of 107.4 points per game in their last 5 games. The Trail Blazers are on the road where they had allowed over 49% from the field in 4 of their last 6 games before taking advantage of facing a bad Suns team at Phoenix on Sunday. The over is 64-42 the last 3 seasons combined when Portland is an underdog. Also, the over is 73-44 in New Orleans home games the last 3 seasons combined. The Pelicans are also 8-3 to the over this season (and 29-16 to the over the past 3 seasons) when they are facing a Northwest Division opponent. A big total was set on this game but, as you can see from all of the above, it was absolutely justified. Also, with both teams off of a win, "hunger" on the defensive end simply will not be there tonight. Look for these teams to go over the total for the 4th time in their last 5 meetings. 10* OVER the total in New Orleans |
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03-14-17 | Pistons +8 v. Cavs | 96-128 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA 8* Detroit Pistons (+) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7:05 ET - This is a revenge spot for the Cavaliers but, of course, the odds makers know that too and they had to put an over-inflated number on Cleveland just to get balanced action on this game. We'll take advantage by grabbing the under-valued Pistons on the other side. Detroit comes into this game having won and covered 12 of their last 18 games. The Cavs have been at the other end of the spectrum of late as they are on a 3-6 SU and ATS run their last 9 games. Over their last 6 games the Cavaliers have been outrebounded by an average of 5 boards per game and they've turned the ball over 79 times while forcing just 49 turnovers. The Pistons have outrebounded their opponent in 6 straight games and, in their last 7 games, they've forced 99 turnovers while they've had just 52 turnovers of their own! The Cavaliers are just 19-36 ATS in divisional games the past 3 seasons and this season they are 6-12 ATS when they are off of a game where they allowed 115 points or more. The Pistons have the rest edge here and they are 8-1 SU (and 7-2 ATS) when playing with 2 days of rest between games. Detroit also is on an 8-2 ATS run against teams that are allowing 106 points or more per game on the season. The Pistons are still in search of securing a playoff spot as they have a ways to go so there certainly will be no let up here. Look for the road dog to remain red hot Tuesday. 8* DETROIT |
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03-14-17 | Mount Saint Mary's +1.5 v. New Orleans | 67-66 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Tuesday 8* Mount Saint Mary's Mountaineers (+) vs New Orleans Privateers @ 6:40 ET - I like the fact that the Mountaineers had to battle adversity after a 1-11 start this season. Mount Saint Mary's loaded their early season schedule with tough competition and it put them in an ugly spot early this season but it also made them stronger for their conference run. The Mountaineers finished the season on an 18-4 run and earned this spot in the big dance by virtue of winning the Northeast Conference tourney. Solid D down the stretch run was a key for Mount Saint Mary's and I like the fact that New Orleans allowed 46% or better from the field in 2 of their last 3 games against teams with a winning record. The Privateers got hot at the right time but the Mountaineers also hold an experience edge as they've been to Dayton in recent seasons for the First Four experience. Mount Saint Mary's won here in 2008 but lost here in 2014 (and Jamion Christian was their coach then too). Christian and company are ready to make amends for that 2014 loss today. History is certainly not on the side of the Privateers here as they are a long-term 14-26 SU (and 12-28 ATS) in all tournament games. Neither team plays in a powerhouse conference but the Southland Conference was particularly weak this season in my opinion. As a result, I like the fact that New Orleans is a bit "surprised" to be here after their run through the conference tourney while the Mountaineers should prove to be a little more focused on the task at hand. The Privateers were not expected by many to get by both Sam Houston State and Texas A & M Corpus Christi to get here .8* MOUNT SAINT MARY'S |
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03-13-17 | Mavs v. Raptors OVER 195.5 | Top | 78-100 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Raptors vs Dallas Mavericks @ 7:35 ET - The first number that popped up when the lines came out had this O/U pegged at 200. The total has moved down to a 195.5 and that's understandable given the fact that the Mavericks are on a 10-2 run to the under and the Raptors are on an 18-7 run to the under. However, the key here is both teams are off of particularly poor shooting performances and I expect a big bounce back given the situation. The Raptors are desperate to stop a recent free-fall in the standings and the Mavericks are fighting to stay alive for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. That said, with each team off of a loss where they were held under 38% from the field, look for a big bounce back effort here. The Raptors, when off of a game where they held to 38.0% or less from the field have gone 3-2 to the over in their next game. Though the 3-2 is nothing phenomenal in terms of the record, the key is that the Raptors scored an average of 108 points per game in those 5 games. As for the Mavs, when they are held to 38.0% or less from the field, they have gone 3-1 to the over in their next game. Also, Dallas is averaging 106.6 points per game in their last 5 games but also allowing 103 points per game in their last 7 road games. I see no reason that either team should fail to get to 100 here given the situation. By the way, Toronto has allowed over 100 points in 5 of their last 6 games. The over is 3-1 this season in Raptors games when they enter the game on an under streak of 3 games or more. The over is also 17-10 in Raptors non-conference games this season. More of the same on Monday. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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03-13-17 | Bulls +7 v. Hornets | 115-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA 8* Chicago Bulls (+) @ Charlotte Hornets @ 7:05 ET - Everyone saw the Bulls take a beating yesterday at Boston because they simply couldn't buy a bucket throughout the first half of that game. For Chicago, it was extremely ugly and I look for the Bulls to redeem themselves tonight at Charlotte. Not surprisingly, the Hornets are already up to a 7 point favorite after opening up at a -5 for this game. Of course much of that has to to with the beating that Chicago took yesterday at Boston. I'll grab the extra value with the Bulls here as Chicago still has playoff hopes alive (actually sitting a little in front of the Hornets right now) and they certainly aren't going to lay down in Charlotte! Adding to the value for this play is the fact that Chicago just scored a season-low in points with just 80 yesterday and they are 6-2 ATS this season when off of a game where they scored 90 points or less. By the way, the only two ATS losses in those record were a 2 point win and a 2 point loss. That said, had the Bulls been at the number they are for tonight's game in those two contests, the record would be a perfect 8-0 ATS on the season. The point is, expect a bounce back from Chicago here! Also, the Bulls are 3-2 SU in the 2nd game of back to backs since the calendar turned to 2017 and both losses came by 5 points or less. Working with the number on tonight's game, the Bulls would be 5-0 ATS in the 2nd game of back to backs on the year. Even though Charlotte has revenge from a loss at Chicago in early January, the Hornets are only 12-18 ATS when playing with revenge this season. Charlotte is also an ugly 6-10 SU and ATS when off of an upset loss as a favorite and they suffered a home loss versus New Orleans Saturday. The Bulls may not wow you with their record and current losing streak but the Hornets aren't exactly known for taking care of business when they're supposed to. In fact, Charlotte is 11-20 ATS on the season (including 3-10 ATS their last 13) when they are facing a team with a losing record. 8* CHICAGO BULLSÂ |
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03-12-17 | Knicks v. Nets OVER 220.5 | 112-120 | Win | 100 | 6 h 42 m | Show | |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #875 Sunday 8* OVER 221 in Brooklyn Nets vs New York Knicks @ 6:05 ET - Another horrific 4th quarter did in the Knicks yesterday and they have now stayed under the total in 2 straight games and 8 of their last 9. Whether or not New York's losing ways continue Sunday, at least their scoring woes should be helped by facing the worst defense in the league. Brooklyn is allowing 114 points per game on the season and is happy to be back home after a long road trip. The over is 6-3 this season in Brooklyn home games with a posted total of 220 points or more. The Knicks are 9-3 to the over this season when playing the 2nd game of a back to back. Also, New York is 4-1 to the over when they enter a game having played each of their 3 prior games on the road. Look for a loosely played affair with plenty of offensive fireworks as there is truly no reason for defensive intensity given the current state of these two teams at this point in the season. Keep in mind this is on top of the fact that both these teams play horrible defense even when they are "trying". More of the same here! 8* OVER the total in Brooklyn |
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03-12-17 | Heat +5 v. Pacers | Top | 98-102 | Win | 100 | 6 h 39 m | Show |
NBA TV Blowout ATS Rout - Rickenbach NBA Game #873 Sunday 10* Top Play Miami Heat (+) @ Indiana Pacers @ 6:05 ET - The Pacers are a popular choice today and that's understandable based on the situation involving Miami. On the surface, Indiana looks like the play. But when you look further into this situation, the Heat won so easily versus Toronto yesterday that key players were able to get significant rest and did not have to log big minutes. Also, Miami had two days off prior to that win over the Raptors. The Heat also have the added benefit of having two days off after this game. In other words, the situation is not nearly as bad as a "normal" back to back and, by the way, Miami has gone 10-2 ATS this season when playing the 2nd game of a back to back. Also, the Heat come into this one having won and covered 4 straight games and, of course, Miami has been one of the hottest teams in the league now for quite some time. They're taking on an Indiana team they've beaten 4 straight times and one of their two losses against the Pacers that preceded that run came by just three points. Also, Indiana comes into this game having lost 10 of their last 14 games. The Pacers are off of a loss to the division rival Bucks and are only 5-8 ATS when off of a divisional game this season. The Heat are 8-0 SU and ATS in their last 8 games played against teams with a winning record and they'll stay red hot here. 10* Top Play MIAMI |
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03-12-17 | Bulls +7.5 v. Celtics | 80-100 | Loss | -109 | 3 h 30 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #871 Sunday 8* Chicago Bulls (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 3:35 ET - Chicago has lost and failed to cover 4 straight games. However, Boston just got back from a west coast road trip and that first game back is often the toughest. The Celtics have been struggling too as they have lost 3 of their last 4 and overall have won just 4 of their last 10 games. Only twice in their last ten games has Boston won by a margin of more than 6 points. That said, there is good value here with a hungry Bulls team. Chicago gets fired up after a losing streak like they've been on. In fact, the Bulls are 6-1 ATS this season (and 15-4 ATS the L3 seasons) when on a losing streak of 3 games or more. The Celtics are only 2-6 ATS this season when they enter a game having played each of their 3 prior games on the road. Grab the ugly dog in this one. 8* CHICAGO |
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03-12-17 | Cincinnati +2 v. SMU | 56-71 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 17 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #891 Sunday 8* Cincinnati Bearcats (+) vs SMU Mustangs @ 3:15 ET - Many will look at this game and recall that the Mustangs, currently on a 25-1 run, suffered their lone loss during that streak at the hands of the Bearcats. However, one should not forget that Cincinnati is actually the team seeking revenge here as SMU avenged the January 12th loss at Cincy with a February 12th home win. Now, ironically, the teams again meet on the 12th of the month and this time it's in March for the AAC Championship Game. The Bearcats are off of a foul-filled win over the Huskies yesterday while the Mustangs pulled away from the Golden Knights yesterday despite not being able to get point production in the paint. That will be a difference maker here because the Bearcats are going to turn up the heat on defense and if SMU again struggles to get points in the paint and also face tough perimeter defense from Cincinnati, points will be tough to come by for SMU. The Mustangs hot shooting run ended yesterday as they had been red hot from the field in their 3 prior games but, though they did knock down threes very well yesterday they finally were held "in check" inside the arc by Central Florida. That is significant here because the 37% that the Bearcats allowed from three point land yesterday was the first time in 6 games that they've allowed better than 33% from beyond the arc. Cincy will be focused on closing out on the three point shooters for SMU in this one and the biggest key of all is the depth advantage of the Bearcats. Considering this is a 3rd game in 3 days scenario, the fact that SMU only played 6 players in yesterday's win over UCF and got 0 points from their bench, the Bearcats deeper rotation gives them an edge in this tourney finale. 8* CINCINNATI |
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03-12-17 | Michigan v. Wisconsin OVER 127.5 | 71-56 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 5 m | Show | |
CBS Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #889 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Wisconsin Badgers vs Michigan Wolverines @ 3 ET - The Wolverines have been red hot but certainly they have not been getting the job done on the defensive end. It's been the Michigan offense that has led the way as the defense has actually allowed 46% or more from the field in 3 straight games and 5 of their last 6. Couple that with the fact that the Wolverines will be playing for the 4th straight day and that Wisconsin has scored an average of 73 points per game so far in his tourney and you have the right ingredients for a high-scoring match-up here. The Wolverines have been so hot on offense (81.5 points per game last 4 games) that even a top defense like the Badgers is unlikely to shutdown the high scoring. Also, don't be surprised if the Badgers play this with a little faster pacing than what you generally see in Wisconsin games because they know they have the fresher legs in this match-up. Not only is Michigan off of a tight battle with Minnesota that was their 3rd game in 3 days, the Badgers had an easy rout of Northwestern yesterday that allowed them to use more of their bench. As a result, Wiscy has the fresh legs here that will have them pushing the pace a little more as they look to wear down Michigan. The Wolverines are 7-1 to the over in their last 8 games. The Badgers are 3-1 to the over in their last 4 games played away from Madison. We get the benefit of a low total here because the Badgers are involved and I see huge value here based on Michigan's recent surge and the fact they did knock down 19 of 44 threes in the two regular season games with Wiscy. Hot shooting, good pacing, confident shooters, it all adds up to what should be a solid over in the Big Ten championship game. 8* OVER the total in Wisconsin |
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03-12-17 | Rhode Island v. VCU | 70-63 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 17 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #884 Sunday 8* Virginia Commonwealth Rams (pick'em) vs Rhode Island Rams @ 12:30 PM ET - Rhode Island knocked off Virginia Commonwealth by double digits in a home game two weeks ago. One look at the box score shows you there were some strange results in that game unlikely to be repeated and VCU should get their revenge here. VCU only made 1 of 15 three pointers! They also got severely outrebounded and these teams are actually equal in terms of the quality of their rebounding game on the season. Rhode Island also made 80% of their free throws as they went 31 of 39 even though they're only hitting 65% on the season. VCU did do a good job of forcing turnovers and has won the turnover battle 30 to 16 in the past two meetings. The point is that, simply with a return to the norms for shooting and rebounding, VCU would easily win a rematch at Rhode Island and yet here we are getting them at a pick'em price on a neutral floor. I'll take it! RI, with their win and cover yesterday, is still only 7-7 ATS in tournament games the past 3 seasons combined. VCU, with their win and cover yesterday, is now 14-5 ATS in tournament games the past 3 seasons combined. Payback time Sunday! 8* VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH |
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03-11-17 | Iowa State v. West Virginia -3 | Top | 80-74 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #750 Saturday 10* Top Play West Virginia Mountaineers (-) vs Iowa State Cyclones @ 6 ET - The Mountaineers barely got by Kansas State yesterday in an ugly game. Now they have an opportunity today to do what they've not yet done and that is earn a Big 12 Title. West Virginia last won a conference title back in 2010 when they were in the Big East. Look for the Mountaineers to make the most of this opportunity and a key edge here is that we are getting extra line value based on yesterday's results. The tight West Virginia win coupled with Iowa State's blowout win over an out-classed TCU team has definitely impacted the betting markets for this game. The fact is that the Mountaineers present a match-up issue for the Cyclones and they have won and covered 4 straight in this series. West Virginia has dominated the boards in recent meetings and they certainly have the edge on defense and on the glass when you compare these teams. The Mountaineers are off of back to back non-covering wins and only once this entire season have they failed to cover in 3 straight games. The Cyclones have been on a strong ATS run and that has forced the odds makers to adjust the number here as Iowa State will get a lot of public support here. The result is exceptional line value for a Mountaineers team hungry for their first-ever Big 12 title. West Virginia is 13-4 SU when playing with 1 day or less of rest between games the past 3 seasons combined as their style is conducive to success as their pressure defense wears down teams in short rest situations. The Mountaineers are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams that average 77 points or more per game. Again, their defense being the key in that regard and I look for Iowa State to drop to 0-5 SU and ATS in their last 5 meetings with the Mountaineers as the match-up troubles haven't gone away! 10* WEST VIRGINIA |
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03-11-17 | Knicks v. Pistons -6.5 | Top | 92-112 | Win | 100 | 5 h 59 m | Show |
Early ATS Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #706 Saturday 10* Top Play Detroit Pistons (-) vs New York Knicks @ 5:05 ET - This looks like a typical spot where one would want to fade Detroit. They are off of a big win versus the defending NBA Champs and it is a trip to Cleveland that is on deck for the Pistons so they are truly in a division rival sandwich her involving the Cavaliers. However, one should not overlook the fact that the Pistons are currently fighting for their playoff lives so truly I just see no way possible that Detroit is going to overlook the Knicks here. That is especially true when they know it will be very tough to win at Cleveland Tuesday. Also, the fact that the Pistons have two days off after this means they can certainly put all energy and focus and attention into this game. The Knicks are having another "train wreck" season and, besides the enticement of fading a bad team here, it is certainly also worth noting that the home team has won each of the last 5 meetings between these teams. The Pistons are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games against teams that allow 106 points or more per game. Also, the Knicks are on a surprising 3-7 ATS run against teams with a losing record. The Pistons are hungry to get back to .500 and continue to make strides toward a playoff berth. 10* DETROIT |
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03-11-17 | Jazz v. Thunder -123 | 104-112 | Win | 100 | 3 h 27 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #702 Saturday 8* Oklahoma City Thunder (-) vs Utah Jazz @ 3:05 ET - When Utah was last at OKC they were favored by 2.5 points and now they are a 2 point dog even though, since that tight loss, the Jazz have won 4 of 5 while the Thunder have lost 4 of 5. Don't be fooled. Lay the points with Oklahoma City. The reason for the somewhat "strange line" is the banged up backcourt of the Jazz and that will likely prove to be a limiting factor in this one for Utah. Both teams are off of a big win so that evens out with OKC off of a win over SA and the Jazz off of a win over Houston. The Thunder should see a huge game from Westbrook here with Utah's injury situation being an issue for sure. Oklahoma City is 24-9 SU and 23-10 ATS in home games this season. The Thunder also are 11-6 SU and ATS when off of a win by a double digit margin. The Jazz are an ugly 4-12 SU (and 5-11 ATS) as an underdog this season and the low number on the money line here has me suggesting you play that one this way to make both a 1 and 2 point victory for the Thunder a win for us in the pocketbook too! Utah is off of a rare, high-scoring win and the Jazz have gone 2-7 ATS (and 1-8 SU) the last 3 seasons combined when they are off of a game where they scored 115 points or more. It all adds up to a very favorable situation for the home team in this one. 8* OKLAHOMA CITY |
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03-11-17 | UCF +8.5 v. SMU | Top | 59-70 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 12 m | Show |
Afternoon ATS Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #741 Saturday 10* Top Play Central Florida Golden Knights (+) vs Southern Methodist Mustangs @ 3 ET - SMU has had a fantastic season but, not only has won an amazing 24 of 25 games, the Mustangs also were 20-5 ATS this season before falling short in yesterday's non-covering win. Southern Methodist blew a huge lead in that game and, even though they hung on for the win, the self-doubt will be in the back of their minds here as they now take on a team fully capable of upsetting them. That said, I'll gladly grab the big points here. The Golden Knights nearly upset the Mustangs in a 5-point home loss in their regular season meeting and they are strong inside including big man 7'6 300 pound Tacko Fall. The fact he was able to play just limited minutes in yesterday's huge win for the Knights means fresh legs here for him in this big game with SMU. The Golden Knights shot the ball very well yesterday but their defense and rebounding is a key to their success. That will also be a key to keeping this game much closer than many are expecting. The Mustangs incredible ATS record is helping to inflate their line for a game like this and I'll take advantage on the other side. UCF, after yesterday's blowout win, is a perfect 6-0 ATS in tournament games the past 3 seasons combined. SMU is now a long-term 6-15 ATS in conference tournament games after losing the killer instinct in yesterday's game. It will be hard for the Mustangs to get that killer instinct back against a Golden Knights team that could very easily grind out an upset win here. That said, give me the big points in this one! 10* CENTRAL FLORIDA |
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03-11-17 | Davidson +4 v. Rhode Island | 60-84 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 52 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Game #733 Saturday 8* Davidson Wildcats (+) vs Rhode Island Rams @ 1 ET - With the Wildcats off of an upset of top-seeded Dayton yesterday, everyone will be looking to play the Rams here. However, oftentimes when there is an upset there can be something "flukey" about the game like an insane hot shooting night overall or a big night from three point land or a turnover filled game. That was not the case yesterday and, simply put, Davidson is playing fantastic basketball right now. The Wildcats opened up as only a 3-points dog here for a reason and, as expect, the public is all over Rhode Island here and has driven the line up to a 4 as of early gameday morning. Give me the value with a Davidson team that knows it is only 2 wins away from punching their ticket to the big dance. The Wildcats are playing with a ton of confidence and they won't stop giving 110% effort today and the fact that it is their 3rd game in 3 days is actually part of what is fueling their fire. This team could have folded when the Flyers made a big comeback on them yesterday and put them at a 3-point deficit late but the Wildcats proved their resiliency. Having lost both regular season match-ups with Rhode Island, Davidson is highly motivated by revenge here too and only fell short by 3 points when these met a week ago and that game was at Rhode Island. The Rams have not been shooting well from three point land in recent games and were horrible at the free throw line today. Both items could be significant factors in this game Saturday. Fade the masses! 8* DAVIDSON |
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03-11-17 | Albany NY v. Vermont OVER 130 | 53-56 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 7 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #763 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Vermont Catamounts vs Albany Great Danes @ 11 AM ET - This is the America East Championship and this year's match-up features long-time rivals both playing great ball. The key to the value here, in my opinion, is that the Great Danes shot very well at Vermont two weeks ago but lost 62-50. Look for them to push the pace more as they know the "slow game" attack certainly didn't work out well for them against the Catamounts. Albany has put up 81 points per game in their last 3 games as they continue to shoot the ball well. Vermont has made a lot of noise with only allowing 41 points per game in the America East playoffs thusfar. But this 3rd and final match-up will prove to be a much tougher test for their defense as they face a red hot offense. The key for the Catamounts to prevail though is their own red hot shooting as they have shot the ball very well and averaged 80 points per game in their two post-season games so far. Both of these teams shoot the ball well and with the total at 130, I see value in a game that is going to play out at a much faster pace than the two regular season meetings. If it wasn't, why would the odds makers hang a 130 on a match-up that averaged only 110.5 points per game in the two regular season meetings? Precisely! Jump on this and look for both teams to continue their hot shooting and certainly not to be looking to milk the clock. The Catamounts (winners of 20 straight) are confident at home and the Great Danes (winners of 7 of 8) know they must change their approach from the meeting here two weeks ago. 8* OVER the total in Vermont very early Saturday |
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03-10-17 | Pacers v. Bucks OVER 206 | Top | 85-99 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #509 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Bucks vs Indiana Pacers @ 8:05 ET - This total has dropped tremendously. Yesterday it was a high as a 210.5 and it's now down to as low as a 204.5 as of nearly noon ET on gameday. I got burned by the Bucks over when they faced the Knicks Wednesday and everything looked great at halftime and then fell apart in the 2nd half. That said, I won't hesitate to come right back with it here. The Pacers are off of a big win over Detroit (115-98) and that big win could leave them a little flat on the defensive end for this one. The over is 8-4 this season when the Pacers are off of a divisional game. As for the Bucks, they have now stayed under the total in 3 straight games and the only time that happened this season it resulted in an over in the very next game and long-term the over is 91-68 in that situation for Bucks games. Milwaukee's games have recently being staying under but it certainly hasn't had much to do with stellar defense! The Bucks have allowed 46.4% or more from the field in 8 of their last 9 games. The strength for Milwaukee, particularly at home, is their offensive production, and the Bucks have won 4 straight games and averaged 107 points per game. Indiana will be seeking to avenge a 116-100 home loss to the Bucks last month and you can bet the Pacers will put up much more than 100 in this one. By the way, the first meeting between these teams this season totaled 232 points. Given tonight's situation, look for the over to improve to 3-0 this season in match-ups between these teams. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee Friday |
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03-10-17 | Magic +8 v. Hornets | 81-121 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Friday 8* Orlando Magic (+) @ Charlotte Hornets @ 7:05 ET - Ugly dog theory in full effect here. I know the Magic may not appear overly attractive on the surface but there is value here because the Hornets are laying big points even though they had lost 6 of their last 7 home games prior to a win over Indiana Monday. Charlotte promptly followed up that rare home win with a loss at Miami Wednesday and this is a Hornets team that has covered the spread just 6 times in their last 21 games. Also, when off of a divisional game (just faced Heat), the Hornets have gone 2-6 SU (and 1-7 ATS) this season. Also, Charlotte has gone 10-20 ATS this season in their games against teams with a losing record. In other words, the Hornets are known for playing down to the level of competition. Orlando is off of a home win versus Chicago and the Magic have been playing much better, after a tough stretch, as the Magic have now covered 4 of their last 6 games. Orlando has lost each of the 2 prior meetings with the Hornets by an average margin of defeat of 20 points per game so a little payback is on order here. While Charlotte is playing with playoff pressure as they look to stay alive, the Magic are playing loose and relaxed. Also, if the Hornets are able to get a big lead in this game don't be surprised if they allow a backdoor cover as they will be wanting to save their legs for tomorrow's match-up with New Orleans. Simply no incentive for a blowout on the part of the Hornets here while the Magic do have revenge incentive in this match-up. That is why this should prove to simply be too many points! 8* ORLANDO |
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03-10-17 | Duke v. North Carolina UNDER 155.5 | Top | 93-83 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Game #570 Friday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in North Carolina Tar Heels vs Duke Blue Devils @ 7 ET - Duke's win over Louisville yesterday flew over the total but the Blue Devils now face a North Carolina team fully capable of playing strong defense just as they displayed in yesterday's win versus a solid Miami team. Many were probably surprised to see this total open up at 155 given the fact that this season's match-ups involving Duke and UNC averaged 168.5 points per game. So, of course, the odds makers made a big mistake here didn't they? I jest of course because long-time followers know how I feel about odds makers and "mistakes" as more often than not it is the market movement that proves to be a mistake. In this case this total has already made an upward move this morning and the value was already with the under in my opinion because this ACC Tourney battle should feature plenty of solid defense. Duke/UNC is always a big match-up but especially when meeting in the tourney and that is going to make for a very intense game where getting defensive stops will carry more emphasis than usual for each team. Before the win versus the Hurricanes yesterday, the Blue Devils had held 5 of their last 5 opponents to 41.5% or less from the field. Duke is 15-7 to the under the past 3 seasons combined in all tournament games. The Blue Devils also are 8-4 to the under when revenging a road loss and 14-8 to the under when playing with 1 day or less of rest. The Tar Heels are 5-2 to the under this season when playing with 1 day or less of rest between games. Also, the under is 17-8 this season in UNC's games against teams with a winning record. 10* Top Play UNDER the total in North Carolina Friday  |
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03-10-17 | Alabama +3.5 v. South Carolina | Top | 64-53 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Game #555 Friday 10* Top Play Alabama Crimson Tide (+) vs South Carolina Gamecocks @ 3:30 ET - Alabama is coming off of a blowout win versus Mississippi State yesterday and is playing very well on both ends of the floor. Of course the Crimson Tide have been known for their defensive play in SEC action under coach Avery Johnson this season and that allows them to "grind it out" and win a game like this against the Gamecocks. Alabama already won at South Carolina in an epic 4-OT battle earlier this season and the Crimson Tide are now playing even more competitively than they were then. Bama has covered 4 of their last 6 games and they held Mississippi State to 39% from the field yesterday and this was after holding each of their three prior opponents to shooting percentages of 32% or less! The Gamecocks have lost 4 of their last 6 games and have failed to cover 8 of their last 9 games. Even though they play solid defense, South Carolina struggles on the offensive end and that could spell trouble against a Bama team that is getting more and more confident on the offensive end with strong performances in recent games. The Tide catch the Gamecocks in a spot where too much rest could actually be a factor and cause some rust. South Carolina is 0-2 ATS the past 3 seasons and 12-24 ATS long-term when they enter a game having been off for 5 or 6 days prior. That is a long-time to not play and stay sharp and it could be an issue here with a team that is already known for it's struggles shooting the ball. Look for the Crimson Tide to improve to 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings with South Carolina. 10* ALABAMA |
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03-10-17 | Michigan State v. Minnesota +1 | 58-63 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
Daytime Rout - Rickenbach CBB Game #520 Friday 8* Minnesota Golden Gophers (+) vs Michigan State Spartans @ 2:30 ET - Of course Michigan State will be a popular choice here based on their storied history of successes in college basketball and certainly, in recent seasons the Spartans also have a big post-season edge in comparison with Minnesota. However, there was a change that took place for the Golden Gophers this season. This team has shown a lot of resilience as, after a great 15-2 start to the season, they got tripped up by these same Spartans and that started a 5-game losing streak for Minnesota. As that losing streak wore on it looked like that would be it for Minny but they responded by then winning 8 straight games. Though they lost at Wisconsin in their season finale, the Golden Gophers were simply in the wrong place at the wrong time as the Badgers, given the situation, were in a foul mood and desperate for a home win. Prior to that loss, the Gophers had won 3 straight road games and, looking at the season as a whole, they've certainly played better away from home (6-5) then has Michigan State (5-11). The Spartans are also 2-4 (SU and ATS) in neutral court games this season. The Gophers are 8-1 SU (and 7-2 ATS) when playing with road loss revenge this season. After getting embarrassed at Michigan State by an 18 point margin in January (after also losing by a single point to Sparty in Minny in December), look for the Golden Gophers to respond in a big way here. The Spartans are off of an easy win over Penn State yesterday but they previously had lost 7 of their last 8 away from home and now get challenged in a back to back. 8* MINNESOTA |
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03-10-17 | Michigan +3.5 v. Purdue | 74-70 | Win | 100 | 5 h 14 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #517 Friday 8* Michigan Wolverines (+) vs Purdue Boilermakers @ Noon ET - Everyone jumping on Purdue early here as the line has already moved from a 2 to a 3.5 as of early gameday morning. However, the Wolverines showed just how resilient they are (and simply how well this team is playing right now) with their win over Illinois yesterday after some significant travel troubles just to get to DC yesterday. Now, with the Wolverines in a back to back spot and with Purdue playing with revenge from a loss at Michigan just 2 weeks ago, the ranked (#13) Boilermakers opened up as only a 2 point choice over the Wolverines on a neutral floor. Of course the odds makers know what they're doing and the reason this line opened so small has a lot to do with how well Michigan has been playing as well as the fact that Purdue has only played 1 game in the month of March and could be a little rusty here. Last, but certainly not least, the Wolverines do have revenge on their minds here as they were knocked out of the Big Ten tourney convincingly in a 17-point loss to the Boilermakers last March. Time for a little payback here and Michigan, after yesterday's easy win over the Illini, is now 10-4 ATS in all tournament games the last 3 seasons combined. Purdue, like the Wolverines, relies heavily on the 3-ball and they have been held to 33.3% or less from three point land in 5 of their last 7 games so the Boilermakers shooting has tailed off. Having played only once in the first 9 days of March isn't doing Purdue any favors here in terms of getting their gameday stroke back either. The Wolverines are shooting the ball very well in recent games and playing with a ton of confidence. Look for that to carry into this game as well. 8* MICHIGAN |
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03-09-17 | Clippers +2.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 114-98 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
No Doubt Blowout Rout - Rickenbach NBA Game #705 Thursday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Clippers (+) @ Memphis Grizzlies @ 8:05 ET - Memphis is seeking revenge for a loss at LA in early January. However, each of the two prior meetings were taken by the road team and there is actually plenty of reason to expect the "road edge" to return here. The fact is that the Grizzlies are struggling as they are currently on a 3-6 run (both SU and ATS). Also, even though the Clippers are in a back to back here and Memphis is playing with rest, the Grizzlies are a surprising 1-7 (SU and ATS) when they enter a game with 2 days of rest between games. Additionally, the fact that the Clips lost by 16 at Minnesota last night will have them fired up here. The Clippers were on a modest 7-4 winning run prior to the loss to the Timberwolves. Also, when playing the 2nd game of a back to back, the Clips are actually 34-19 SU the past 3 seasons combined. In 2017, when off of a loss where the Clippers have been held to less than 100 points (as they were last night at Minny), they have won their next game all 4 times. I look for that SU mark to improve to 5-0 here and that means the added points we are getting here should prove to just be a bonus. 10* LA CLIPPERS |
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03-09-17 | Cavs v. Pistons +6 | 101-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #702 Thursday 8* Detroit Pistons (+) vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7:35 ET - "Everybody and their brother", as the saying goes, will be piling on Cleveland here since they are off back to back losses. Of course that is why this line has been driven from as low as the Cavaliers -3.5 all the way up to now as a high as Cavs -6 as of gameday morning. This has opened up exceptional line value on the Pistons here because, keep in mind, it's about more than back to back losses for Cleveland here. The fact is that the Cavaliers are in the midst of a 2-4 stretch that has seen them go 1-5 ATS at the betting window! This team is simply struggling right now and they are on the road and facing a division rival who is off of a loss and has not lost back to back games since January! The Pistons were on an 11-5 ATS streak before their ugly 17 point loss at Indiana last night. Look for Detroit, even though this is a back to back spot, to get right back on track here as they have gone 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games against teams that allow 106 points or more per game. Also, the Pistons are 12-7 ATS this season when off of a loss by a double digit margin. The Cavaliers are only 11-19 ATS against teams with a losing record on the season. Also, even when off of an upset loss as a favorite, the Cavs have gone 4-7 ATS this season. The Cavs knocked Detroit out of the post-season last April and so these games always have extra meaning for the Pistons. The home team has easily covered each of the first two match-ups this season and I look for that trend to continue here. 8* DETROIT |
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03-09-17 | Tulane +5.5 v. Tulsa | Top | 60-66 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
Situational Shocker - Rickenbach CBB Game #801 Thursday 10* Top Play Tulane Green Wave (+) vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane @ 6 ET - If you operate under the theory that the sports books make huge mistakes and give away money it doesn't take long to get crushed in this business. That said, there are certainly no "sure things" in this industry but, at the same time, when something looks too good to be true I will definitely look to fade it. That is certainly the case here when you look at the American Athletic Conference Tourney action for Thursday. UConn (added benefit of home edge and 9-9 in AAC this season) is favored by 14 over SFla (1-9 in AAC this season). Makes sense based on records and home court. Temple, slightly better than East Carolina, is a small favorite of about 5 points. Another one that makes sense looking at records. Then, you have this game where Tulsa (seeking 'right back' revenge for a home loss just days ago), was only a -4.5 point favorite when lines came out yesterday even though Tulane was 2-15 in AAC action and had only 5 wins on the entire season before the Green Wave upset the Golden Hurricane Sunday. Keep in mind Tulsa is nearly a .500 team on the season and Tulane is regarded as one of the worst teams in CBB. So, did the sports books decide to give away money here with Tulsa? Why are they favored in the same price range as Temple even though they're facing the cellar dweller of the AAC and also playing with home loss revenge? I'll gladly play my often-used role of contrarian in this match-up as I look for an upset. Keep in mind, Tulsa really faded down the stretch with 8 losses in 10 games and I would not be surprised to see them still come out flat here because they simply "don't have it" this season. Frustrating season for them after starting 12-8 before the poor ending. The only Golden Hurricane wins since January came against East Carolina and South Florida (two of the worst teams in the AAC). That doesn't give Tulsa a big boost of confidence here considering they're facing a team that has proven it has some match-up edges over them. Over their last 9 games combined Tulsa is allowing a very high shooting percentage as their defense has seemingly quit as the season has gone one and become very disappointing. As for the Green Wave, they are rejuvenated after the win over Tulsa Sunday and will come in relaxed and confident as nothing is expected of them and that often makes for the most dangerous of underdogs! The Green Wave are 5-3 ATS this season against teams with a losing record while the Golden Hurricane are on a horrific 1-10 ATS run in March games. Fade the masses in this one! 10* TULANE |
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03-09-17 | New Mexico +1.5 v. Fresno State | 60-65 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #785 Thursday 8* New Mexico Lobos (+) vs Fresno State Bulldogs @ 5:30 ET - This is similar to my play on Air Force yesterday. The line really made no sense on the Falcons and Cowboys yesterday and so I faded what looked like a "sure thing" by playing against Wyoming. This one is a similar situation because the Lobos come into the tourney off of a win but had previously lost three in a row while the Bulldogs come into the tourney red hot as they are winners of five straight games. Couple that with the fact that New Mexico is 2-9 ATS in all tournament games the last 3 seasons combined and Fresno State is 13-4 ATS against teams with a winning record this season and today's line truly doesn't make sense. So how can we back the Lobos here? For one thing they did have a tougher strength of schedule than did the Bulldogs on the season. Also, the Lobos are playing this game with road loss revenge and that is a situation that has seen them go 3-1 (both SU and ATS) this season. New Mexico is the stronger team at the free throw line and that can be a key in tourney action where there is more emphasis on earning buckets inside and drawing fouls in the paint. Also, the Bulldogs are just 2-5 SU in their last 7 neutral court games and they did not play at UNLV this season while the Lobos did play at the Thomas & Mack Center earlier this season and they did shoot well in that game. Some interesting edges here for the underdog in this one and that will prove to be the difference with another contrarian play. 8* NEW MEXICO |
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03-09-17 | Seton Hall v. Marquette OVER 150.5 | Top | 82-76 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
Daytime Total Rout - Rickenbach CBB Game #729 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Marquette Golden Eagles vs Seton Hall Pirates @ 2:30 ET - After opening up at a 153.5 this total has dropped down to a 150.5 as of early gameday morning. This should prove to be another nice situation where there is value in fading the move. The Golden Eagles are known for hot shooting and big offensive production with very little attention paid to defense or rebounding. The result is some very high-scoring games and, even though the Pirates certainly pay more attention to defense, Seton Hall's recent results show trending that is likely to result in an easy over here. The Pirates, prior to their 70-64 season-ending win at Butler, had allowed 5 straight opponents to hit 46% or better from the field! Seton Hall, in this five-game stretch before wins over Georgetown and Butler to wrap up the regular season, had allowed 78 points or more in 4 of 5 games! The Pirates have been shooting the ball well (46% or better) in 5 of their last 6 games and it is unlikely the Golden Eagles will be able to slow them down. Marquette has allowed opponents to hit 47% or better in 10 of their last 13 games. Of course the key for the Golden Eagles is an offense that is again on fire from three point land with shooting a ridiculous 50% or better from beyond the arc in each of their last 4 games to wrap up the regular season. The past three seasons combined, the over is 16-9 when Marquette is off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more and the Golden Eagles are also on a 9-3 run to the over in tournament games. Seton Hall is on a 7-3 run to the over in March games and the Pirates went 4-1 to the over this season in games with a posted total in the 150s. Look for another wild one here! 10* OVER the total in Marquette (game played at MSG in NY) |
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03-09-17 | Illinois v. Michigan -5 | 55-75 | Win | 100 | 6 h 45 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #720 Thursday 8* Michigan Wolverines (-) vs Illinois Illini @ Noon ET - Michigan has dropped down from an opener of -6.5 to a -4.5 as of very early gameday morning. I like the value with, in my opinion, the far superior team that is also battle tested. The Wolverines are 9-4 ATS in tournament games the past 3 seasons including 2-0 SU and ATS in a regular season tourney early in the season. The Illini have a losing record (both SU and ATS) in tournament games the past 3 seasons and that includes an 0-2 mark straight-up and against the spread in an regular season tournament early this season. Illinois had been playing well late this season but lose all momentum with an inexcusable effort at Rutgers in their regular season finale. The Wolverines come into this one flying high with wins in 6 of their last 8 games and Michigan has been shooting "lights out" in recent games. Of course, this is nothing new as the Wolverines are averaging 48% on the season including 39% from three point land and, while Michigan's numbers hardly drop off on the road, note that Illinois is only hitting 42% from the field and 33% from beyond the arc in road games this season. As an underdog the past three seasons combined, the Illini have gone 16-30 ATS and 11-35 SU. The Wolverines have gone 41-13 the past 3 seasons when they are favored and are laying a very manageable number. Even though Illinois plays this game with road loss revenge, the Illini are an ugly 2-6 (SU and ATS) when in that situation this season. More of the same expected very early Thursday. 8* MICHIGAN |
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03-08-17 | Knicks v. Bucks OVER 211 | Top | 93-104 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
Insiders Edge - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Bucks vs New York Knicks @ 8:05 ET - This total opened up at a 213 and has already dropped by a bucket - down to 211 - as of early gameday morning. While certainly not a big move I'll gladly grab the value on the other side of the move because I was already looking "over" in this one. Both teams are off of wins, both teams play little defense, and both teams were off yesterday so they have fresh legs. The Bucks have their offense rolling again as they've won 3 straight games and averaged 108.3 points per game in the process. The Knicks also come into this one strong, in terms of offensive production, as they've averaged 105 points per game in their last 5 road games. New York is allowing 109 points per game on the season and the Bucks allow 105 points per game so far on the season. The Bucks had allowed their last 7 opponents to average 50% from the field before finally holding their most recent opponent in check. However, that had more to do with facing the tanking Sixers moreso than any type of stellar defense on the part of Milwaukee. The over is 22-11 in Bucks home games this season and the over is 9-4 this season when New York is off of an upset win as an underdog. After the Knicks got the outright win at Orlando Monday, look for even less emphasis than usual (which is not much) for New York in this one. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
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03-08-17 | Georgetown v. St. John's OVER 153 | Top | 73-74 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #569 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in St John's Red Storm vs Georgetown Hoyas @ 7 ET - The Red Storm get the advantage of playing this Big East tourney game on their home floor. That should certainly help the St John's offense and they do have a number of dangerous scoring options but the problem for the Red Storm continues to be a lack of commitment on the defensive end. This plagued them constantly and, no matter how much they talk about it, the players just don't buy into it. St John's has potent weapons on offense but no real stoppers on the other end of the floor. This is part of the reason that the Red Storm have allowed opponents to shoot 51% or better in 5 of their last 7 games. St John's has allowed an average of 88 points in those 7 games and that included an 86-80 home loss to the Hoyas two weeks ago. Georgetown shot very well in that game and, surprisingly, has shot 49% or better from the field in 5 of their last 7 road games and they shot at least 53% from the field in 4 of those 5 games. As a result, the Hoyas come into this game confident and willing to push the pace and the Red Storm certainly love that style, particularly when on their home floor. The result should be a rather easy over in this one. The over is a perfect 4-0 this season in Hoyas games where they are facing a team that allows an average of 77 points or more per game on the season. The Red Storm, over the past 3 seasons combined, are 5-2 to the over in March games and also 6-3 to the over in games with a posted total in the 150s. Look for more of the same in this one. 10* OVER the total in St John's |
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03-08-17 | Air Force +6.5 v. Wyoming | 83-68 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #549 Wednesday 8* Air Force Falcons (+) vs Wyoming Cowboys @ 4:30 ET - The opening number on this game was only 4.5 and this this is despite the Cowboys finishing with a much better overall record and conference record than the Falcons. Also, Wyoming did defeat Air Force in both regular season meetings. That said, it's no surprise that the action of the betting markets has already moved this to a 6.5 as of early gameday morning. In typical contrarian fashion, I am on the other side of this line move. The original line may have looked a little "off" but the fact is that the Falcons can win this game. Though Air Force lost the two regular season match-ups with the Cowboys, they did attempt 9 more shots from the field in each game. Simply put, Wyoming shot better than the Falcons did in the two meetings but I expect that to change here. This game is being played at Las Vegas in the home arena of UNLV and it is at this location that Wyoming lost to the Rebels and shot just 19% from three point land. The Falcons also lost at UNLV but only by a 2 point margin and Air Force shot 36% from beyond the arc in that game. With the Falcons not winning a single road game this season, no one will want them here and that is just how I like it as we are getting solid line value with a team that matches up quite well with Wyoming. The Cowboys, other than the win at Air Force, only went 1-7 SU in their other 8 MWC road games. Wyoming is 10-18 ATS when off of a win in conference action, 6-16 ATS against teams with a losing record, and a long-term 3-12 ATS in first round tournament games. Air Force is 5-2 ATS this season after 3 or more consecutive losses and the Falcons are 6-2 ATS this season when off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more. 8* AIR FORCE |
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03-08-17 | Stanford -3 v. Arizona State | 88-98 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #553 Wednesday 8* Stanford Cardinal (-) vs Arizona State Sun Devils @ 3 ET - With the Cardinal having lost both regular season match-ups with the Sun Devils the set-up here is already quite nice but when you dig deeper into what happened in those two games you have to like the odds of Stanford avoiding a 3-0 sweep even more! Arizona State outscored the Cardinal by a total of 42 points from the 3 point line in the 2 games and yet the Sun Devils only won each game by a margin of 6 points or less. Come tourney time (and in this case playing in an unfamiliar arena), the 3 point shot often doesn't fall as well and that could significantly hurt ASU because they rely so heavily on it. Another key match-up note here is that Stanford completely dominated the boards (49-27) in the 2nd meeting between these teams this season and that game was at Arizona State! The Cardinal, in comparison with the Sun Devils, are definitely the far superior team when it comes to rebounding. Arizona State is an ugly 1-9 ATS the L3 seasons combined in games played on a neutral court and that includes 0-5 ATS this season. The Cardinal are 10-5 straight-up in all tournament games the last 3 seasons combined. Stanford does come into this game having lost 3 straight games but that is a situation that has seen the Cardinal go 3-0 ATS this season and, though below ASU in the standings, Stanford is favored here by the odds makers with plenty of good reasoning! Look for the Cardinal roll big and get their revenge. 8* STANFORD |
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03-07-17 | Blazers v. Thunder UNDER 223.5 | Top | 126-121 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
NBA TV Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #702 Tuesday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Oklahoma City Thunder vs Portland Trail Blazers @ 8:05 ET - The Thunder were rolling with 4 straight wins and then went on the road and lost all 3 games including the opener of the trip at Portland. That makes this a revenge spot for Oklahoma City but where I see the best value in this one is with the total. The Thunder are preaching defense as they prep for this match-up as they allowed 48.8% or better in each of the 3 games on their recent road trip. Oklahoma City got a little help in terms of having a good shot at being able to slow down the Trail Blazers tonight because of a scheduling quirk that came up last night. Portland was at Minnesota for a big game with the Timberwolves but it was cancelled due to poor floor conditions. The Blazers came into that game having won back to back games and having averaged 119 points per game in their 3 games last week as they averaged a ridiculous 53% from the field in those 3 games. Look for last night's cancelled game to throw off the timing of the Portland offense for tonight's game. When you're rolling a shooting well you want to keep on playing and that was an odd situation in Minnesota last night that will throw this team out of kilter a bit. That said, there is also added value here because this total opened at a 222 and is already up to a 223.5 as of early gameday morning. The under is 16-6 this season when the Thunder are playing with revenge. Look for more of the same in this one as a result similar to the 105-99 final the last time OKC hosted the Trail Blazers would not surprise me. 10* UNDER the total in Oklahoma City |
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03-07-17 | Pittsburgh -120 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 61-59 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
ACC Slaughter - Rickenbach CBB Game #711 Tuesday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Panthers (-) vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ 7 ET - The line at the time of this posting is right around a -1 or -1.5 so I am going to recommend a play on the money line (currently a -120 or -125) as it is worth it to me to make 1 a win number for us. It may seem funny to some, given the position of these teams in the ACC standings (and the fact that GT is 4-0 ATS against Pitt in ACC action) to see Pittsburgh open up as the favorite here. However, the odds makers do have it right. There are a couple of keys to this play. The Panthers have played the tougher full season schedule in comparison with the Yellow Jackets. Also, Pitt is led by a couple of seniors who know that "this is it" for them. Those seniors are their leading scorers and they have struggled recently. However, this ACC Tourney is their "last hurrah" if you will and they're going to go all out and they should prove to be difference-makers down the stretch in this game. I just don't see the Panthers being denied as they play this game with revenge from a loss at Georgia Tech last week and as they look to "make a little noise" in this tourney one last time with Michael Young and Jamel Artis leading the way. Pittsburgh is 9-3 SU as a favorite this season so, even though they've had a tough season overall, the Panthers have gotten the W's when expected to. Georgia Tech is 7-13 SU as an underdog this season and Pitt won't be denied here as Artis and Young come up huge in crunch time one last time. 10* PITTSBURGH |
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03-07-17 | NC State v. Clemson OVER 151 | 61-75 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 10 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #707 Tuesday 8* OVER the total in Clemson Tigers vs NC State Wolfpack @ Noon ET - The first numbers that popped up on this total were in the 156 range and now the O/U has dipped down to almost 150 in some spots as of about 4 hours before tipoff. This line move has opened up some added value in a game that is not likely to feature a lot of defense. The Wolfpack are playing with revenge from a road loss at Clemson last week. That is significant here because NC State has gone 5-2 to the over this season (and 14-5 to the over the past 3 seasons combined) when they are playing with road loss revenge. Also, the over is 9-4 in Wolfpack games played on a neutral floor the past 3 seasons combined and NC State is 8-4 to the over this season in games where the posted O/U is in the 150s. In other words, when the total looks a little on the high side it has proven to be justified in being a big number more often than not. The over is 5-2 in Tigers tournament games the past 3 seasons combined and, this season, Clemson is 3-0 to the over when off of a win in conference action. The Tigers are averaging 75 points per game on the season and the Wolfpack give up 80 per game on average but also have solid production on the other end of the floor where NC State is averaging 78 points per game. Both teams have been very poor on the defensive end down the stretch run of the season and I expect more of the same in the ACC Conference Tourney opener early Tuesday. 8* OVER the total in Clemson |
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03-06-17 | Warriors v. Hawks OVER 214 | Top | 119-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA Game #509 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Hawks vs Golden State Warriors @ 7:35 ET - The Warriors game should have gone over the total yesterday and didn't. The end game results were crazy the way it played out in the final minute or so at New York. As for the Hawks, they completely blew their game by getting outscored 7-0 to finish the game after having built up a 6-point lead with about a minute and a half to go in the game versus Indiana. Look for Atlanta to be more aggressive on offense after that poor effort versus the Pacers yesterday and the Warriors will happily oblige as they love run and gun fast paced affairs. Golden State called a time out about 6.5 minutes into yesterday's game. They had been struggling with their shooting in recent games and it continued early in yesterday's game. The Warriors had only 10 points in the first 6.5 minutes. From that point on, after the time out, Golden State scored 102 points in less than 3.5 quarters of play. That projects out to about 120 points and I expect the Warriors to carry that momentum into today's game while the Hawks offense also gets back on track after scoring just 96 points yesterday's game. Keep in mind, prior to yesterday's loss, Atlanta had shot the ball very well in three straight games and averaged 114.7 points per game. The total on this opened up around 216.5 yesterday and has dropped as low as 213.5 as of early gameday morning. Of course recent unders in this series have helped drive that move but the situational set-up here is trending toward a wide-open affair here with plenty of offense and I love the extra line value this move on the total has given us. The Hawks are in the middle portion of a 6 game homestand and the over is 94-62 when Atlanta enters a game having played each of their 3 prior games at home. Both these teams have played to a lot of unders recently but I like the direction that the Warriors are heading with their offense after yesterday's strong performance the last 41+ minutes and I like the fact the Hawks offense had been on fire in recent games and will bounce back after yesterday's tough loss to Indiana. 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Monday |
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03-06-17 | Knicks v. Magic OVER 210.5 | 113-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Monday 8* OVER the total in Orlando Magic vs New York Knicks @ 7:05 ET - The Knicks over had so many chances late in yesterday's game (versus Golden State) and New York simply fell apart at the end. The Knicks hurt themselves (and me) late in that game and I won't hesitate to come right back with the over in this one after that game yesterday had no business staying under the total based on the end-game scenario that played out. Taking on Orlando, allowing 106 points per game on the season, should help New York finish stronger tonight. The Knicks are 10-4 to the over against Southeast Division opponents this season. Also, New York and Orlando both came into yesterday's action on long "under streaks" and that's why, even though the Knicks are allowing 109 points per game this season (and the Magic allow 106), this total opened up at a 210 rather than the 215 range where it belongs. I'll take advantage of the value here because Orlando's big blown lead at Washington yesterday (allowed Wizards to come back from 17 down) is going to have the Magic never taking their foot off of the gas in this game. Orlando attempted 35 threes in yesterday's game and both they and the Wizards each nailed 14 three-pointers yesterday. Look for another wild one here in Orlando as this game will have a good pace after each team comes in off of disappointing losses where they know they needed to be more aggressive on the offensive end late in the game. 8* OVER the total in Orlando |
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03-06-17 | Heat +9 v. Cavs | 106-98 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA Game #503 Monday 8* Miami Heat (+) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7:05 ET - Cleveland lost by 28 at Miami on Saturday so now, automatically, the Cavaliers are the play here in the eyes of most people. Being a contrarian, I am not "most people" and the fact is that the Cavs are not the same team without Kevin Love. The Cavaliers enter this game on a 2-3 SU (1-4 ATS) run and the 2 wins each came by 7 points or less. That said, the Heat would be on an 0-5 ATS run at the price range they are being bet up to in this game. This line, after being as low as a 7.5 yesterday, is already up to a 9 on gameday morning and this is offering fantastic line value with a Miami team that is fighting for their playoff lives and certainly won't let up here! The Heat are 18-4 SU their last 22 games and only 1 of the 4 losses have come by double digits (just barely, defeated by 11 at Orlando). With that said, the value we are getting here with a hungry Miami team against a Cavs team that is still suffering from a bit of "World Champion hangover" is simply too good to pass up on. The World Champs are only 14-11 SU their last 25 games. They'll certainly pick up the intensity in the post-season but, until then, spots like this are perfect to fade them. Even when playing with revenge this season, the Cavs are just 6-6 ATS and an uninspiring 7-5 SU. Against teams with a losing record, the Cavaliers are 11-18 ATS this season. Cleveland is also an ugly 6-11 ATS this season when off of a game where they allowed 115 points or more. The Heat are 7-1 ATS when they are off of a game where they scored 115 points or more and they've covered 6 straight games against teams with a winning record. The Heat lost by 30 in their last visit here (early this season) and they haven't forgotten that beating either. 8* MIAMI plus the big points Monday |
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03-06-17 | Central Michigan v. Kent State OVER 167 | Top | 106-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #531 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kent State Golden Flashes vs Central Michigan Chippewas @ 7 ET - The first total that popped up on this game yesterday was 170.5 and, of course, alarm bells went off for some as a result. Sure enough, the early action on this total has moved it down to a 167 and I can completely understand the move as the total does seem big compared to the norm. The key here is that Central Michigan is not the norm as they average 88 points per game but also allow an average of 87 points per game. In the only regular season meeting between these teams, also here at Kent State, the teams went to OT tied at 83. That said, without OT, that game would not have gotten past the current O/U posted on this rematch. However, what I have seen from the Chippewas in recent games is an even further disregard for defense than the way they were playing earlier in the season. The Chips have allowed 5 straight teams to hit at least 50% from the field against them. In their last 6 games, Central Michigan has allowed an average of 96.2 points per game! The Golden Flashes should indeed score at will in this game. Yes, some of Kent State's recent results would cause concern about their scoring abilities but they faced some tougher teams (and certainly tougher defenses) than what they will face in the form of Central Michigan tonight. The over is 13-4 in Chippewas games where they were an underdog this season. Also, 7 of the Chips last 8 games against teams with a winning record have gone over the total! As a home fave of 6.5 to 9 points, the Golden Flashes are 4-1 to the over this season. 10* OVER the total in Kent State Monday |
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03-05-17 | Minnesota v. Wisconsin -7 | Top | 49-66 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #836 Sunday 10* Top Play Wisconsin Badgers (-) vs Minnesota Golden Gophers @ 6 ET - This is another classic contrarian situation for me. In a game that certainly means a lot to both teams, many will be grabbing what appears to be generous points with the team that certainly has been the hotter team. Minnesota has won 8 straight games and has gone 7-1 ATS during this red hot run and yet the Golden Gophers are as much as a 7.5 point dog in this one as of early gameday morning? This is even though the Badgers have lost 5 of their last 6 and are on a 1-7 ATS run! It is 'head-scratchers' like these that tend to most bettors up and I fully believe the sharp money here will prove to be on the Badgers. Already we're seeing some early line movement toward Wiscy even though most of the bets are coming in on Minny. Of course that tells you where the big money is flowing and I like the fact this game means a ton for Wisconsin in addition to being Senior Day in their regular season finale. The Gophers haven't won here in Madison in nearly a decade and I don't see that changing today. As far as the Badgers covering the spread here, they actually led Iowa by 9 very late in their most recent game before an unusual late-game implosion led to them losing outright to the Hawkeyes. Prior to this defeat, Wiscy was 14-1 at home this season and they'll be ready to get back on track Sunday evening. The Badgers are allowing just 56 points per game at home this season. The Golden Gophers, by comparison, have allowed 71 points or more in 9 of their last 11 games! Even with their win and cover versus Nebraska Thursday, Minnesota is still just 2-6 SU and ATS in their last 8 March games. By comparison, the Badgers had won 13 of their last 16 March games before the ridiculous loss to the Hawkeyes. Look for a huge response from the home team here as the Badgers add to a perfect 6-0 mark (SU) and 5-1 ATS record this season in home games with a posted total in the 130 to 134.5 point range. 10* WISCONSIN BADGERS minus the points Sunday evening. |
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03-05-17 | Illinois-Chicago +6 v. Green Bay | 79-70 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
March Madness - Rickenbach CBB Game #857 Sunday 8* Illinois-Chicago Flames (+) @ Wisconsin-Green Bay Phoenix @ 5 ET - The Phoenix have beaten the Flames both times this season, both times last season, and 3 times the prior season when they also knocked them out of the Horizon League tourney. Now these teams are matched up again in the conference tourney and, even though Wisconsin-Green Bay has won 14 of its last 20 and Illinois-Chicago has lost 9 of its last 12, the Phoenix were favored by as little as 5 points in the first lines that were out yesterday. Something looks 'suspicious' doesn't it? The fact is that the Flames have a great shot at the upset here. UIC is off of a horrible shooting performance at Wright State in their final regular season game and scored just 49 points. This season, when the Flames are off of a game where they been held under 70 points, they have gone 6-1 ATS in their next game. Illinois-Chicago is 23-10 ATS long-term in conference tournament games. The Phoenix are only 15-18 ATS in their last 33 conference tourney games. After getting embarrassed by 38 points last Sunday at Wright State (and being 7-3 ATS when they enter a game off of 5 or 6 days of rest between games), the Flames bounce back strong here today. UIC has the revenge angle working strongly in their favor and, in each of the last 5 meetings between these teams the Flames have never trailed by more than 2 points at halftime. They've had some 2nd half collapses but with the backcourt depth of UWGB hurt by the absence of Trevor Anderson (4-5 ATS in L9 games without him), look for the Flames to finally get over the hump in this match-up. If they do fall short look for it to be only by a bucket or two. 8* ILLINOIS-CHICAGO FLAMES plus the points Sunday |
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03-05-17 | Warriors v. Knicks OVER 220 | Top | 112-105 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
ABC Daytime Blowout - Rickenbach NBA Game #823 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Knicks vs Golden State Warriors @ 3:35 ET - Of course the big story out of Golden State has been the recent loss of Kevin Durant to injury. However, what has also made headlines is some surprisingly poor shooting performance for key players like Steph Curry and Klay Thompson. Needless to say, a bounce back looms because the Warriors are a stacked team that is certainly about much more than just KD. That said, I am looking for the sub-par Knicks defense to be the perfect antidote for the Warriors. Look for a huge performance from GS shooters today as they take advantage of a Knicks D that has had some better performances of late only because they've faced some weak teams (Philly twice and Orlando) as well as a struggling Raptors team. Prior to this, the Knicks had given up 111 points or more in 8 of their 10 previous games. The Warriors, prior to the ugly 94-87 loss at Chicago, had allowed 107 points or more in 10 of their 13 prior games. Golden State is well rested for this one and they will happily push the pace and look to put up a ton of points and get their shooters back on track. The Warriors are 9-1 to the over in their 10 games this season where they enter off of 2 days of rest. GS has been off since Thursday. The over is 4-2 in New York's home games with a posted total of 220 points or more. Also, Knicks games are 20-11 to the over this season when they are facing a team with a winning record. 10* OVER the total in New York Sunday afternoon |
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03-05-17 | Pacers v. Hawks -145 | 97-96 | Loss | -145 | 4 h 22 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #822 Sunday 8* Atlanta Hawks (-) vs Indiana Pacers @ 1:05 ET - The money line is so low on this one right now at -145 that I would suggest playing the Hawks on the money line rather than laying the -3. Of course playing the latter means we need Atlanta to win by 4 to cash our ticket so playing the former opens up 1, 2 and 3 as win numbers for us and there is enough value in this low money line to do just that. I certainly like the fact that this line opened up at a -4 yesterday and has come down some. With yesterday's number we would have needed Hawks to win by 5 to cash our ticket. The key here is that everyone remembers Atlanta's loss to Cleveland Friday when the Hawks gave up 135 points but of course the Cavaliers had a ridiculous 25 three-pointers in that game. The point is that the Cavs had 16 points from the free throw line, 44 from inside the arc, and a ridiculous 75 points from outside the arc. That type of ridiculousness is not going to be repeated here and, keep in mind, Atlanta still ended up losing that game by only 5 points. The Pacers are off of a hard-fought loss at San Antonio Wednesday and that was their 8th loss in their last 10 games. Even though Indiana is playing this game with home loss revenge, the Pacers are an ugly 16-26 ATS (and 12-30 SU) the last 3 seasons when playing with ome loss revenge. The Hawks are 9-3 SU and ATS this season in their games against teams from the Central Division. 8* ATLANTA on the money line very early Sunday |
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03-04-17 | Clippers -130 v. Bulls | Top | 101-91 | Win | 100 | 15 h 6 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Saturday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Clippers (-) vs Chicago Bulls @ 8:35 ET - With Chicago seeking revenge for a loss at Los Angeles earlier this coupled with the fact that the Clippers are in back to back but the Bulls were off last night, many will be backing the home team here. However, in typical contrarian fashion I am lining up on the other side. The Clips are fired up after a turnover-filled loss at Milwaukee last night. LA knows that was an unacceptable performance against the Bucks as it was also ugly at the free thrown line. The Clippers also were done in by Milwaukee shooting lights out in last night's game. After all of that, the Clip should respond in a big way at Chicago and they're catching the Bulls at the right time to get the job done. Chicago is off of a big home win versus Golden State as they got the upset of the Warriors as a sizable home dog. The Bulls are 14-25 ATS the past 3 seasons combined when they are off of an upset win as an underdog. Also, Chicago is 2-5 SU and ATS this season when they are off of a game where they allowed 90 points or less. The Clippers are 55-28 SU in non-conference games the past 3 seasons combined and, for only the 3rd time this season, LA has failed to cover the spread in 4 straight games. This entire season, the Clips have never had a 5-game ATS losing streak and I don't expect that to change today given the strong motivation for the Clippers after last night's ugly performance at Milwaukee. 10* LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS |
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03-04-17 | San Francisco v. Santa Clara +1.5 | Top | 69-76 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
March Madness - Rickenbach CBB Game #664 Saturday 10* Top Play Santa Clara Broncos (+) vs San Francisco Dons @ 6:30 ET - At first glance this line looks a little off. The Dons have 20 wins on the seasons and the Broncos are only a game over .500 on the season! However, the reason the line is so low (and likely to encourage "action" on San Francisco here) is because both these teams are 10-8 in their conference games this season. The "tipping point" for me in terms of backing the Broncos in this match-up is more than just the 3 point loss at San Francisco last month resulting in a "revenge factor" here. The fact is that the Broncos have been very hot with their shooting touch of late while the Dons have truly been ice cold in many of their recent games. Couple that with the fact that this game is played at a neutral site (Orleans Arena in Las Vegas) and you have the makings of a strong edge toward the Broncos here. Retaining shooting touch is tough for teams to do when away from home and that will exasperate an already tenuous situation for San Francisco in this one. The Dons shot a more "reasonable" 43% from the field in their final regular season game but that was against league-worst Pepperdine. In their previous 4 games, San Francisco was held between 24.7% and 37.5% from the field in all 4 games. The Don't haven't truly shot the ball well in the past 4 weeks as their last hot shooting game was all the way back on February 4th. As for the Broncos, they have shot between 46.5% and 63.9% in 4 of their last 5 games. Santa Clara had won 3 of its last 4 games before running into St Mary's (one of the top teams in the conference) and I look for them to get rolling again after that loss to the Gaels. The Broncos won the first match-up between these teams by 14 points this season. Then, despite being down by 20 points at half-time at San Francisco, the Broncos came all the way back in the eventual 3-point loss to the Dons. It is evident they match up well with SF. More of the same here. 10* SANTA CLARA |
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03-04-17 | Pistons -4.5 v. 76ers | 136-106 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Saturday 8* Detroit Pistons (-) @ Philadelphia 76'ers @ 6:05 ET - Philadelphia, though truly starting to tank the season, is off of a win last night versus the Knicks. That victory snapped a 3-game losing streak for the Sixers. Overall, the 76'ers had lost 11 of their last 16 games prior to last night's win. Now, in a tough back to back scheduling spot, Philly hosts a Detroit team that is well-rested (off since Wednesday) and also fired up (off of a 23 point loss). The Pistons had won 8 of 12 before that ugly loss at New Orleans and that was a strange loss for Detroit as they took 25 more shots from the field than the Pelicans and yet still managed to lose ugly. Poor shooting from three point land and insanely bad shooting from the free throw line were big difference-makers in the game. Look for the Pistons to take advantage of facing a weak foe today as they bounce back on Saturday. Detroit is 5-1 in their last 6 games against the 76'ers and all 6 games were decided by a margin of at least a dozen points! The Pistons are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS when playing with 2 days of rest between games this season. 8* DETROIT |
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03-04-17 | Massachusetts v. St Bonaventure -8 | Top | 56-60 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
Atlantic 10 Game of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Game #572 Saturday 10* Top Play St Bonaventure Bonnies (-) vs Massachusetts Minutemen @ 4 ET - Seeding can play an important role in how far a team can go in the A-10 Tourney. With that said, the Bonnies are fully focused on not only getting a big W on Senior Day but also locking up the #5 seed for the upcoming tournament. They can accomplish both objectives Saturday and they're facing the right team to get a blowout win. Massachusetts is 4-13 ATS in conference action this season. Also, the past 3 seasons combined, UMass has gone 1-7 ATS in March games. The Minutemen defense has particularly struggled over the last 8 games. During this stretch, Massachusetts has given up 80 points per game and their 6 losses during this 2-6 stretch have come by an average margin of 13 points per defeat. Only 1 of the 6 losses was by less than 8 points. The Bonnies are off of a loss coming into this one and that carries a lot of significance in terms of this play because St Bonaventure has not lost back to back games since mid-November! The Bonnies are 9-0 SU the last 9 times they've been off of a loss. In terms of covering the spread, it is noteworthy that St Bonaventure is 7-2 ATS in those 9 games and the only 2 ATS losses were both wins by double digit SU margins! In other words, the Bonnies would have covered a single digit spread in each case! After opening up at a 10 yesterday this line has moved down to an 8 and this has led to even more value here with St Bonaventure. Look for the Bonnies to improve to 7-2 ATS their last 9 games played in March. 10* ST BONAVENTURE Â |
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03-04-17 | Georgia +7 v. Arkansas | 67-85 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Game #543 Saturday 8* Georgia Bulldogs (+) @ Arkansas Razorbacks @ 2 ET - Georgia, still playing without big man Yante Maten, showed a lot of heart in their comeback win versus Auburn earlier in the week. However, after getting a late 6 point lead that would have given them the cover, the Bulldogs allowed the Tigers to score the final 5 points of the game in the non-covering win. I like backing Georgia in their preferred role Saturday as they are an underdog in this one. The Bulldogs have gone 10-2 ATS as an underdog this season and they still have some hope for making the NCAA Tourney so they will be going "all out" at Arkansas this afternoon. The Razorbacks are off of a loss at Florida and are now 4-7 ATS in March games the past 3 seasons combined. The Hogs allowed the Gators to shoot better than 50% from the field and Arky has now allowed at least 50% from the field in 6 of their last 12 games! While the Razorbacks are allowing 44% from the field in SEC action, the Bulldogs are allowing only 41% and I'll grab the defensive-minded underdog that is very well-coached under Mark Fox. Only 3 of the Bulldogs last 9 losses have come by more than 7 points and the Dogs have gone 13-9 SU during this stretch. In other words, last 22 games have resulted in only 3 losses by more than 7 points. The hungry Bulldogs will have plenty of fight in them again today as the last time they faced Arkansas away from home it was a double digit loss in the 2015 SEC tourney. 8* GEORGIA |
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03-04-17 | Indiana v. Ohio State OVER 147 | 96-92 | Win | 100 | 5 h 11 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #519 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Ohio State Buckeyes vs Indiana Hoosiers @ Noon ET - Even though these teams are mired near the bottom of the Big Ten standings, Ohio State will bring a strong effort on Senior Day and the Buckeyes certainly will not let up as they look to avenge an 85-60 loss at Indiana last season. As for the Hoosiers, they are averaging 80 points per game this season but defense is generally an afterthought. In games with a posted total in the 140s, the over is 10-5 in Hoosiers games this season. As a road dog of 3 points or less, Indiana has a long-term mark of 14-7 to the over. For the Buckeyes, as a home fave of 3 points or less, the over is 4-1 this season. The over is 14-6 in Ohio State's games against teams with a winning record this season. Indiana is allowing 80 points per game on the road this season but the Hoosiers to have plenty of scorers and as a result, both of these teams have a great shot at getting to 80 points in this game. 8* OVER the total in Ohio State |
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