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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-03-18 | Raptors +2 v. Cavs | 106-112 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #703 Tuesday 8* Toronto Raptors @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7:05 ET - The Raptors were knocked out of the post-season by the Cavaliers last season. Toronto was able to get some revenge with a huge home win in their first meeting with the Cavs this season. However, in the next meeting they lost at Cleveland after blowing a 15 point halftime lead. Not only does that make today a revenge game for Toronto, it also is a key game as the Raptors work toward their goal of securing the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference for the playoffs. Toronto is 9-3 ATS this season as an underdog. Cleveland is 17-42 ATS as a favorite this season. I also like the fact that the Raptors enter this game off of a loss and they haven't lost back to back games since mid-January. The Cavaliers recent run looks very impressive but, keep in mind, they've played a lot of bad teams the past few weeks. Now it is payback time for this road dog! 8* TORONTO |
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04-02-18 | Michigan v. Villanova -6.5 | Top | 62-79 | Win | 100 | 36 h 4 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #602 Monday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats (-) vs Michigan Wolverines @ 9:20 ET - After both favorites covered in the Final Four, don't be surprised if there is a lot of support for the underdog in this one. However, in typical contrarian fashion, I am backing the favorite here. Lets not forget Michigan's path to get here. They beat low seeded teams (Montana and Loyola), only beat Houston because the Cougars couldn't make free throws late, did blowout Texas A & M but barely got by a Florida State team that (for this season at least) has a photo of its likeness next to the word inconsistent in the dictionary. In all seriousness though, the Wolverines have not been nearly as impressive as the Wildcats have. I have said it before and I'll say it again, Villanova is a team on a mission ever since, after winning it all in 2016, they were bounced early from the tourney by Wisconsin last year. The Wildcats haven't been just beating teams, they've been dominating them. How many people felt good about Michigan winning the game yesterday (against an 11 seed!) when they were down 7 at the half? Or still down 5 past the midway point of the 2nd half? Give the Wolverines credit for the comeback win (and a cover that did burn me as I had the Ramblers) but Villanova is not Loyola and this one will likely be close for awhile (Michigan is strong defensively) but the Wildcats will ultimately pull away in convincing fashion. Villanova has not only won 10 straight games, they are on an 8-1 ATS run. Also, the Wildcats last 9 wins have all come by double digit margins. Look for this to be another one. 10* VILLANOVA |
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04-01-18 | Pacers v. Clippers OVER 215.5 | Top | 111-104 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 8 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Clippers vs Indiana Pacers @ 3:35 ET - When these teams met in Indiana a week ago, the Clippers shot 55% and yet they lost and the game stayed under the total. This is helping to give us solid line value with this total because the Pacers are off of another unique result too. Indiana is off of a win at Sacramento Thursday despite allowing 53.8% from the field. As you can see, the Pacers defense hasn't exactly been on point of late! The Clippers are on an under streak but there is a reason this total is as high as it is. It is more than just some "strange results" recently, it is also that the Clips are now back home where the over is 5-2 in their last 7 games as hosts. LA is still alive in the playoff race and the Pacers are still chasing the Cavaliers for the top spot in the Central Division. With that said there will be no let up from either team and a tight game late could also lead to some free throws and "scramble points" helping our cause. The Clippers have averaged 115.7 points per game in their last 7 home games. The Pacers have scored 106 points or more in 4 of their last 6 games and the Clippers are going to push the pace in this one as they seek revenge for last week's loss. 10* OVER the total in Los Angeles Clippers |
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04-01-18 | 76ers -2 v. Hornets | 119-102 | Win | 100 | 19 h 16 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Sunday 8* Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Charlotte Hornets @ 1:05 ET - While it is true that the 76ers are without Joel Embiid, it is also true that this team is about much more than just Embiid. Philadelphia is not only a 9-game winning streak, they've also covered 7 straight games! That said, the Sixers at this low number (as low as 1.5 as of Saturday) are even an option on the money line (priced as low as -125) to simply win this game and make it 10 in a row. Charlotte is at home and has a respectable home record this season but what do they really have to play for here? That said, looking at Philadelphia's remaining schedule, they know a #3 seed is certainly possible as they could pass Cleveland in the standings. In the month of March, Charlotte went 1-5 ATS at home! The Hornets also in a tough back to back spot here as they were at Washington yesterday. That ugly defeat was Charlotte's 3rd straight overall ATS loss. The Hornets are 2-9 ATS in the 2nd game of a back to back their last 11 occurrences. 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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03-31-18 | Kansas v. Villanova -5 | Top | 79-95 | Win | 100 | 25 h 33 m | Show |
THE College Game of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Game #814 Saturday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats (-) vs Kansas Jayhawks @ 8:45 ET - Kansas just beat Duke in overtime. That was a huge win and it took OT to get it. Now, of course, the Jayhawks have had ample time to hit reset and get ready for Villanova but the Wildcats have been the much more impressive team. Keep in mind Kansas has allowed about 44% from the field in their last 3 games. The Wildcats, on the other hand, have allowed 61 points or less in 3 of their last 4 games and Villanova has held their last 5 opponents to a combined 37% from the field. The Wildcats defense is simply fantastic and, on offense they have 6 key cogs in the rotation that all handle the ball very well and can score well which creates a match-up nightmare for the opposition. Having already faced the two toughest defenses (including uniqueness of Mountaineers) of the Big 12 (Texas Tech and West Virginia), Villanova is more than ready to take on the Jayhawks. Jay Wright is a helluva strong coach and this team has been on a mission ever since winning it all in 2016 but then getting bounced early by Wisconsin in last year's Big Dance. Villanova will not be denied and we're getting great line value here with the low number on this one. The Wildcats are a long-term 39-2 SU when they enter off of a game in which they allowed 60 points or less. They are locked in on D right now and most all of their wins have come by at least a half dozen points this season. In other words, you can be very comfortable laying this! All 7 of the Jayhawks losses this season came by at least 5 points. 10* VILLANOVAÂ |
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03-31-18 | Loyola-Chicago +5.5 v. Michigan | Top | 57-69 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 60 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #811 Saturday 10* Top Play Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (+) vs Michigan Wolverines @ 6:05 ET - The other match-up in the Final Four has a #1 seed matched up with another #1 seed and the line is the same as this line. Do you see my point? Here we have a #3 seed Michigan facing a #11 seed Loyola and we have the exact same line. So this is basically an invitation from the betting markets to take the much higher seed and lay a very small line. I am not buying it! The fact is that the odds makers (always very sharp and on top of their game) realize that this Loyola team is damn good and playing their best, most cohesive basketball of the season right now. The fact is that the odds makers had to put the line like this because they know they're going to have to keep the Michigan line low to balance the sharp money that will come in on the Ramblers. They fact is that Loyola has proven they can play with some top quality teams and if Michigan does defeat them I expect it to be by a single possession. Loyala has simply gone toe to toe with everyone they've faced. Michigan's record looks great but they haven't shot well in 2 of their last 3 games and also haven't shot well from beyond the arc in 3 of their 4 NCAA Tourney games. The Ramblers make a high percentage because they take quality shots and create good looks and high percentage chances. Loyola faced a tougher road to get this point and they've truly proven themselves. Michigan beat Houston by a single point and only because the Cougars didn't make free throws. The Wolverines beat the Aggies because of torrid hot shooting. But in their other game they faced Montana (much lower competition) and Florida State (a fragile, inconsistent team all season). This Ramblers team is anything but fragile or inconsistent! I'll gladly take the points and an outright upset will not surprise me in the least. 10* LOYOLA-CHICAGO |
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03-31-18 | Pistons v. Knicks OVER 211 | Top | 115-109 | Win | 100 | 21 h 15 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #803 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Knicks vs Detroit Pistons @ 5:05 ET - The last time the Knicks were in action they combined with the Sixers to give me one of the worst "Bad Beats" I'll likely have this entire calendar year in any sport. The teams combined for 130 points at halftime and yet the game (a big play for me) did not go over the total. It was a horrific beat and, suffice to say, I had my eyes out for when I could get some payback involving New York. Now the Knicks host a Pistons team that, though not officially eliminated, knows that the odds of a playoff berth are basically somewhere between minuscule and nothing. In other words, this is a late season match-up of two non-playoff teams and that means defense goes out the window. Look for for a free-flowing offensive showcase. The Knicks are 7-3 to the over this season when they enter a game having played each of their 3 prior games on the road. Also, New York is 6-2 to the over in Saturday games. The Pistons are 7-2 to the over this season when off of an upset win as an underdog. 10* OVER the total in New York |
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03-30-18 | Nuggets +3.5 v. Thunder | Top | 126-125 | Win | 100 | 25 h 14 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Friday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (+) @ Oklahoma City Thunder @ 8:05 ET - The Nuggets still fighting hard for a playoff spot. I know Denver enters off of back to back losses but they faced two of the hottest teams in the East - Philly and Toronto. Prior to those defeats the Nuggets had won back to back games and they enter this one on a 3-1 ATS run. Denver also has a rest edge here as they've been off since Tuesday while the Thunder are playing the 2nd game of a back to back as they will be coming into this one off of a game at San Antonio Thursday night. Oklahoma City is playing this game with revenge but they are 9-22 ATS this season when playing with revenge. Also, OKC is an ugly 2-13 ATS in divisional games this season. The Nuggets are 8-4 in divisional games this season. Combined edges of 43-15 (74%) favoring the road dog in this one. 10* DENVER |
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03-30-18 | Illinois-Chicago +9 v. Northern Colorado | Top | 71-76 | Win | 100 | 24 h 47 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #781 Friday 10* Top Play Illinois-Chicago Flames (+) @ Northern Colorado Bears @ 7 ET - The Bears are at home for this one but they are still over-priced in my opinion. Many will look at Illinois-Chicago's travel situation and Northern Colorado's hot ATS streak and they'll be all over the Bears here. I am going contrarian and grabbing the points with the hungry road dog in this Championship Game. The Flames have played a tougher schedule on the season and Illinois-Chicago has defended very well this season. UIC also have shut down the 3-ball very well in their last two games and this is what Northern Colorado has been relying on to achieve their blowout wins. The Bears aren't going to hit 17 of 30 threes in this one like they did against Sam Houston State Wednesday. Also, Northern Colorado has allowed 79.5 points per game their last 4 games. Teams can get spoiled when winning with offense. Subconsciously there is a tendency to let up on defense when things are going so well on the offensive end. This will prove to be the undoing of the Bears because they now face a Flames team that has allowed 61 points or less (and 33.3% or less from the field) in 2 of their last 3 games. From a technical aspect, I like the fact that UIC is 20-8 ATS in recent seasons (including 7-2 ATS and SU) this season in games with a posted total in the 150s. Look for the Flames defense to be the difference here. As a home fave of 6.5 to 9 points, Northern Colorado is on an 11-16 ATS run including 2-4 ATS in recent seasons. The Bears are over-priced here. 10* ILLINOIS-CHICAGO |
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03-29-18 | Bulls v. Heat OVER 210 | Top | 92-103 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #703 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Miami Heat vs Chicago Bulls @ 7:35 ET - With the Bulls having shot so poorly in many recent games I know I am going against the grain here. However, that is all part of being a contrarian and this is an excellent situation. The Heat are off of a huge win versus Cleveland where they held the Cavs to just 79 points. That is certainly noteworthy as Miami is 12-5 to the over (including 4-1 this season) when off of a game where they allowed 85 points or less. Also, as the Heat have been pushing hard to secure a playoff spot, they have been trending over. Prior to the low-scoring match-up with the Cavaliers, the over was 16-6 in Miami's 22 previous games. As for the Bulls, they were 5-1 to the over in their 6 games prior to getting obliterated by Houston and scoring only 86 points. As you would expect, Chicago struggles to stop quality teams and that has played a key role in the over going 25-13 in Bulls games versus teams with a winning record this season. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Miami |
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03-29-18 | Penn State v. Utah OVER 134 | Top | 82-66 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #711 Thursday 10* OVER the total in Utah Utes vs Penn State Nittany Lions @ 7 ET - 3 of the Nittany Lions 4 NIT games have gone under the total. However, a big win at Marquette thanks to hot shooting followed up by continued hot shooting here at MSG on Tuesday is what has Penn State in the NIT Championship. As a result, I feel we're getting great line value here because the results are similar for Utah. The Utes have stayed under the total in 3 of their 4 NIT games but they have shot the ball very well in their last 5 games. I just don't see Penn State as wanting this game to slow down too much. Couple that with Utah having shot 50% from the field in their last 5 games and you have the makings of an easy over here. The Utes, though they shot well overall, did not shoot the 3-ball well Tuesday versus Western Kentucky and that has led to value here. Utah is 6-3 to the over this season when off of a game where they were held under 32.2% from 3 point land. The over is 13-7 in Penn State's last 20 games versus teams with a winning record. 10* OVER the total in Utah |
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03-28-18 | Knicks v. 76ers OVER 220.5 | Top | 101-118 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #503 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Philadelphia 76ers vs New York Knicks @ 7:05 ET - Look for this to be a very entertaining game with a ton of points scored. The Knicks Trey Burke looks like and, at least for the last 4 games, plays like his idol Allen Iverson. That said, off of a 42 point performance (with 12 assists) at Charlotte Monday, look for another huge game from Burke here as he's certainly excited about playing in Philly. This is his first visit to the City of Brotherly Love since he took on an increased role with the Knicks after the All Star break. The Sixers are red hot again and have won 7 straight games. They certainly are excited about Markelle Fultz being back on the floor finally and he had 10 points, 8 assists, and 4 rebounds in just 14 minutes in the 76ers big win over Denver Monday. Philadelphia is averaging 118 points per game during their current 7-game winning streak and the way the Knicks have been scoring since the All-Star break (and coinciding with Burke's increased role) sets the stage for an easy over here. The Knicks have scored at least 104 in 11 of their last 16 games while the Sixers have allowed 105.4 in their last 5 home games. This one should get well into the 220s based on that as Philly opened up as a 14 point favorite and both of these teams are really feeling it right now in terms of execution on offense! The over is 3-0 this season in Knicks road games with a posted total of 220 points or more. The over is 13-6 when the 76ers enter a game on a winning streak of 3 or more games. 10* OVER the total in Philadelphia |
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03-28-18 | Illinois-Chicago +6.5 v. Liberty | Top | 67-51 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #723 Wednesday 10* Top Play Illinois-Chicago Flames (+) @ Liberty Flames @ 7 ET - Even though UIC is without leading scorer Dikembe Dixson, they've been without him for both games of this tournament already and are adjusting just fine by going guard-heavier with their lineup. The fact is that Dixson wasn't a high percentage shooter and Illinois-Chicago has clearly picked up the slack. Yes, Liberty is home for this game but I feel they are getting far too much respect here. The line has gone from Liberty -5 to as high as a -6.5 as of early gameday morning. The fact is that UIC played a tougher schedule than Liberty and Illinois-Chicago is also a solid team defensively just like Liberty is. In fact, UIC is allowing only 32.8% from three point land while Liberty has allowed 36.6% from beyond the arc this season. With that said, I feel we're getting excellent line value here with the big points. UIC is a long-term 46-26 ATS when playing with 5 or 6 days of rest between games and that includes 5-1 ATS (and SU) this season. Liberty is a long-term 3-8 ATS when they are off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. They're now going from facing a Central Michigan defense that played very little defense to facing a UIC team that is absolutely going to challenge their shots here. That said, Liberty is facing a much tougher test here and is over-priced. 10* ILLINOIS-CHICAGO |
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03-27-18 | Spurs v. Wizards +1.5 | Top | 106-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #762 Tuesday 10* Top Play Washington Wizards (+) vs San Antonio Spurs @ 7:05 ET - The Wizards are off of 3 straight losses and that is certainly worthy of note here as Washington has not lost 4 straight games this entire season! The Wizards are a long-term 9-3 SU (and 10-2 ATS) when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games. Washington also is playing this game with quadruple revenge as they've lost 4 straight versus the Spurs. This includes a loss last week at San Antonio where the Wizards gave up a big 3rd quarter run. Washington is 17-10 ATS as an underdog this season and I expect them to get revenge here. The Spurs are 14-23 SU on the road this season and have lost 8 of their last 9 away from San Antonio. 10* WASHINGTON |
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03-27-18 | Western Kentucky v. Utah | Top | 64-69 | Loss | -119 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #777 Tuesday 10* Top Play Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (-) vs Utah Utes @ 7 ET - This line, as of early gameday morning, has the Hilltoppers as a very small favorite. As a result, you can play the money line in the -120 range on this one and that is what I am recommending here. The Utes are the bigger name school and will attract some attention here as a small dog as a result. However, this Hilltoppers team is extremely talented and playing extremely well. As a result, we're getting fantastic line value in this one with the ability to just take Western Kentucky to win. The Hilltoppers have been ultra impressive on both ends of the floor. They are off of a 92-84 win at Oklahoma State and are 12-2 ATS this season when off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. They've shot the ball very well in the NIT and have averaged 83.3 points on 54% shooting from the field. Also, Western Kentucky has allowed 38.9% or less from the field in 4 of their last 5 games. Utah is on a long-term 4-8 ATS run in tournament semi-final games and, in recent seasons the Utes have compiled a 6-10 ATS run in games played on a neutral court. 10* WESTERN KENTUCKY |
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03-26-18 | North Texas v. San Francisco -3.5 | Top | 62-72 | Win | 100 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #742 Monday 10* Top Play San Francisco Dons (-) vs North Texas Mean Green @ 10 ET - Both teams faced a relatively easy path to reach this Championship Series of the CBI. However, don't be fooled by all the big points that North Texas has been putting up. They're facing a much tougher defensive test here. San Francisco played the tougher strength of schedule as their conference includes quality teams like San Diego and BYU and very strong teams like St Mary's and Gonzaga. I feel these tests during the season will help the Dons in terms of being ready to take down the Mean Green here. At home, San Francisco went 15-6 SU this season and that makes me very comfortable laying the short number here with the Dons. The Mean Green went just 6-11 SU in games away from home this season. 11 of their 17 losses this season came by 5 points or more. Also, long-term North Texas is 8-33 SU in road games and an incredibly poor 9-40 SU versus teams with a winning record. Look for the Dons to defend home court in Game 1 of this best of 3 series. 10* SAN FRANCISCO |
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03-26-18 | Knicks v. Hornets OVER 222 | Top | 128-137 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #733 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Charlotte Hornets vs New York Knicks @ 7:05 ET - Though it is not official yet, even though the Hornets have won 3 straight games, Charlotte is effectively eliminated from the post-season race and they know it. That said, I like to look at the over in late-season match-ups like this that are between two teams that are not going to the post-season. These types of late season ho-hum games tend to lead to plenty of offense and very little defense as there is certainly not a lot of incentive to get stops on the defensive end. That said, I like the fact that this total already has dropped from it's earliest number of 224 down to a 222 and I would not be surprised if it drops even further. With their upset win at Washington yesterday, New York has scored more than 100 in 7 of their last 9 games. The rarity about yesterday's win was that the Knicks didn't allow triple digits. In fact, NY entered that game having allowed 108 points or more in 15 of their last 18 games. Not much defense in those numbers! The over is 8-4 this season when New York is playing the 2nd game of a back to back. Also, when off of an outright upset win as an underdog, the Knicks are 10-5 to the over this season! The over is 5-0 in the Hornets last 5 home games and they've averaged scoring 118.7 points per game their last 10 at home! 10* OVER the total in Charlotte |
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03-25-18 | Blazers +3.5 v. Thunder | Top | 108-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
Divisional Game of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Game #713 Sunday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (+) @ Oklahoma City Thunder @ 7:05 ET - Portland is off of rare back to back losses at home. The Trail Blazers had been one of the hottest teams in the league and I look for them to bounce right back here. Portland is a PERFECT 5-0 SU their L5 games away from home. Overall, in their last 18 games, the Trail Blazers have lost ATS only 3 times! In their match-ups with the Thunder this season they are a PERFECT 3-0 SU and ATS. Oklahoma City enters this game quite hot also but if you look closely at what they've done, the Thunder just don't win against playoff level teams very often at all. A big part of the reason they've been on a hot streak is because of facing a weak schedule. Most all of their wins have come against teams that wouldn't be in the playoffs if the season ended today. In fact, the Thunder are just 4-8 SU their last 12 games against teams that are currently in a playoff position or just one game out (Denver). The point is that Oklahoma City has struggled when facing better teams and they're certainly facing one of those today. It is also noteworthy that the Thunder are just 9-21 ATS when playing with revenge this season and also an ugly 2-12 ATS in divisional games. Look for the Blazers to win outright for the 6th time in their last 6 road games and for the 4th time in their last 4 meetings with OKC. Grab the points but you shouldn't need them. 10* PORTLANDÂ |
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03-25-18 | Heat v. Pacers OVER 207 | 107-113 | Win | 100 | 9 h 0 m | Show | |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #705 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Indiana Pacers vs Miami Heat @ 5:05 ET - The over is 3-0 in the 3 meetings between these teams this season and that is even with the Pacers making only 1 of 18 from beyond the arc in the most recent meeting between these teams. Miami's game at Oklahoma City Friday stayed under the total but, prior to that, the Heat were on a 15-5 run to the over! I am well aware of the fact that Indiana is on a recent trend toward the under. However, their last 4 games have seen them allow an average of 49% from the field. In other words, don't be surprised when the Pacers recent trend of going under begins to reverse as there are already signs. I expect to get in on the front end of that cycle by grabbing the over in this one at it improves to 4-0 this season in meetings between these teams. 8* OVER the total Indiana |
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03-25-18 | Duke v. Kansas OVER 155 | Top | 81-85 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
Total of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Game #719 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kansas Jayhawks vs Duke Blue Devils @ 5:05 ET - This total may seem to be on the high side but, keep in mind, these are two of the most potent offenses in college basketball today. The fact that Duke is off of a game where they scored only 69 points and didn't shoot well simply helps to add even more value here. The Blue Devils faced the tough frustrating defense of Syracuse but, in their prior games Duke had scored 87 points or more in 3 of 4 games and they shot extremely well from the field overall and from 3-point land in all 3 of those game! The Jayhawks have averaged 81 points per game in their last 6 games and they have consistently shot the ball very well over their last 10 games. It is no wonder why the over has gone 7-3 in those 10 games as Kansas is playing their best basketball of the season on the offensive end and playing with a ton of confidence. The Jayhawks are averaging 81.4 points per game and the Blue Devils 84.4 points per game on the season. Ton of offense expected here as both teams believe they can outdo each other on the offensive end and you may be surprised to see a very fast pace to this game but that is what I am expecting based on the game management expected from these coaches for this match-up. This is going to be a back and forth shootout. The over is 10-2 this season in Blue Devils games versus non-ACC foes. The over is 6-2 this season when the Jayhawks are playing with 1 day or less of rest between games. 10* OVER the total in Kansas |
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03-25-18 | Texas Tech v. Villanova -6 | 59-71 | Win | 100 | 6 h 38 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #719 Sunday 8* Villanova Wildcats (-) vs Texas Tech Red Raiders @ 2:20 ET - The Red Raiders deserve credit for getting here no doubt but this is where it ends. Texas Tech was on an 0-8 ATS run before back to back ATS wins versus Florida and Purdue. That said, I am not sold on this team taking down a Wildcats team that is very hungry. After winning it all in 2016, Villanova was upset in the 2nd round by Wisconsin last year. They haven't stopped working toward their goal ever since and the way they rallied against a quality West Virginia team whose defense can be very tough to beat says a lot about this team. Keep in mind, that Mountaineers team beat this same Red Raiders team twice in the past month. Now is the time to fade Texas Tech as they are a bit over-rated and Villanova's 33 wins have only included 2 by less than 7 points. When the Cats win, they win by a solid margin more often than not and we're getting good line value with a small number here. Texas Tech is 1-9 SU and ATS versus Big East opponents long-term. The Wildcats are 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS in NCAA Tournament games and get the cash again here. 8* VILLANOVA |
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03-24-18 | Bulls v. Pistons OVER 210.5 | Top | 95-117 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #503 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Pistons vs Chicago Bulls @ 7:05 ET - The Pistons, though of course they wouldn't admit it, are coming to terms with the fact that they're not going to make the post-season. They're just too far back now. After a loss to the Rockets, Detroit has lost 11 of its last 15 games. I know the Pistons have some good recent stats on defense but I look for this to be a run and gun shootout on Saturday evening in Detroit. This is a match-up of two teams not going to the post-season and the Bulls quit playing defense a long time ago. Chicago has allowed 117.3 points per game their last 7 games. Detroit needs a breakout game on offense after a frustrating game at Houston. Of course facing the weak Bulls is going to allow the Pistons to enjoy a huge electric game on the offensive end. Chicago is off of a home loss to Milwaukee that went over the total and the over is 9-4 this season when the Bulls are off of a divisional game. The Bulls have averaged 107.7 points per game on offense their last 7 games and you can see why I am looking for a 120 to 108 type game here which, of course, equates to an early over. This will appear to be a bit of a contrarian play given the Pistons recent numbers on defense but you can see, per the above, why I am expecting an entirely different mindset for this one. 10* OVER the total in Detroit |
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03-24-18 | Wolves +7.5 v. 76ers | 108-120 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
Philly Special - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Saturday 8* Minnesota Timberwolves (+) @ Philadelphia 76ers @ 6:05 ET - Many are looking at the Sixers here since this is a back to back spot for the Timberwolves. However, Philly has been playing quite a few weak teams leading into this match-up and I expect the 76ers to struggle with a solid Western Conference foe here. Keep in mind, Minnesota is playing this game with double revenge. They lost their last game at Philadelphia and also got upset at home by the Sixers earlier this season. The Timberwolves allowed some big runs versus the Knicks last night but they clearly were looking ahead to this game and they did hang on for the all important win. Keep in mind, the Wolves have games on deck with Memphis, Atlanta, and Dallas. In other words, out of the 5-game stretch that began at New York last night, Phlly was on the only quality team on the slate for Minny. As a result, bank on the Wolves bringing their "A game" tonight. The Timberwolves are 6-3 SU and ATS when playing with home loss revenge this season. A lot of points expected here and the 76ers are 6-14 SU in home games with a posted total of 220 or more. 8* MINNESOTA |
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03-24-18 | Loyola-Chicago v. Kansas State -113 | Top | 78-62 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #514 Saturday 10* Top Play Kansas State Wildcats (-) vs Loyola (IL) Ramblers @ 6:05 ET - The Ramblers continue to be the story of the tournament but I just don't see that continuing here. Kansas State has allowed just 53.3 ppg in the tourney and their defense has limited the opposition to less than 34% from the field. Loyola is still alive in the tourney thanks to both strong shooting and clutch shooting. But the way the Wildcats are "locked in" on the defensive end right now, I just don't see the Ramblers as being able to maintain their unlikely run that has seen them hit better than 50% from the field in the tournament. Keep in mind, Loyola is allowing 46% from the field in the tourney so the Wildcats hold the D edge here based on current level of play and Kansas State certainly holds an edge in terms of strength of schedule they faced this season. With Loyola playing the role of "Cinderella Story" in this tournament, we're getting line value with the Wildcats and I won't hesitate to step in as the money line is available at a nearly "pick'em price" on K-State in this one. 10* KANSAS STATE |
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03-24-18 | Central Michigan v. Liberty -2 | 71-84 | Win | 100 | 5 h 8 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Game #518 Saturday 8* Liberty Flames (-) vs Central Michigan Chippewas @ 2 ET - Classic match-up of offense versus defense and, as a general in the post-season, defense wins. The Flames have allowed just 58.7 ppg on only 38.8% shooting from the field in their home games this season. The Chippewas have allowed 79.2 ppg on 47.0% shooting from the field on the road this season. Also, after the long layoff for both teams heading into this one, it will likely prove tough on the shooters in terms of having their usual "in-season" rhythm. With that said, this is another edge for Liberty since they're playing this game on their home floor. The Flames are a long-term 6-1 ATS when playing with 7 or more days of rest between games. Central Michigan is a long-term 4-13 SU (and 6-11 ATS) in road games with a posted total in a range of 140 to 144.5 points. 8* LIBERTY |
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03-23-18 | Nets v. Raptors OVER 221.5 | Top | 112-116 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #859 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Raptors vs Brooklyn Nets @ 7:35 ET - The Raptors and Nets just met early last week in Brooklyn and the game barely stayed under the total. In the Nets other 10 games dating back to their final game of February, the over is 7-3. As for the Raptors, they played very solid defense late in their win at Orlando Tuesday but they then suffered a tough beat at Cleveland Wednesday as they let that one get away from them late. Toronto may not have a lot of defensive intensity left after trying desperately to hang on in that revenge game at Cleveland (they just can't see to win there) and, keep in mind, this is the Raptors 6th game in 9 days! Toronto has allowed 52.7% or more from the field in 3 of their last 4 games. As for the Nets defense, they've allowed 110.4 points per game on the season. Brooklyn is 6-3 to the over when they enter a game having played each of their three prior games at home. The Raptors are 6-3 to the over in home games with a posted total of 220 points or more. This big total is absolutely justified and there won't be much D in this one! 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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03-23-18 | West Virginia v. Villanova -5 | Top | 78-90 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #872 Friday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats (-) vs West Virginia Mountaineers @ 7:25 ET - The Wildcats beat Alabama by 23 points despite hitting only 39.7% from the field. That certainly says a lot about just how good this Villanova team is. The Wildcats are 9-2 ATS in neutral court games this season and also 8-2 ATS in all NCAA Tournament games the past 3 tourneys combined. West Virginia has won and covered both their games so far in the tourney but they faced an Ohio Valley team and a Conference USA team. This is certainly a much stiffer challenge here and, keep in mind, the Mountaineers were only 9-9 SU their last 18 games prior to the Big Dance. As for Nova, they faced an SEC team Sunday and that is at least a tougher challenge than what West Virginia has faced so far. Also, the Mountaineers are 5-10 SU their last 15 as an underdog and 30 of the Wildcats 32 wins this season have come by a margin of 7 points or more. As you can, odds truly favoring a win for Nova by 7 or more and that gets us the cash here! We'll take it! 10* VILLANOVA |
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03-23-18 | Nuggets +1.5 v. Wizards | 108-100 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
Early NBA TV Blowout - Rickenbach NBA Game #853 Friday 8* Denver Nuggets (+) @ Washington Wizards @ 7:05 ET - The Nuggets are in a fight for a final playoff spot in the West. They also have revenge in this spot as they lost at home to the Wizards early this season. Denver has a poor season record on the road but they've actually won 5 of their last 9 road games and one of those losses was that tough recent multiple-OT loss at Miami. In other words, the Nuggets are a much better road team now than they were earlier this season. The Wizards have covered only 12 of their 35 home games this season. Also, Washington has lost 6 of their last 10 games overall and 4 of those 6 losses have come on their home floor. Look for the Nuggets to improve to 7-3 ATS this season when playing with home loss revenge. 8* DENVER |
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03-23-18 | Clemson v. Kansas -5 | 76-80 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #878 Friday 8* Kansas Jayhawks (-) vs Clemson Tigers @ 7:05 ET - Yesterday when I used Michigan in their blowout win over Texas A & M my analysis mentioned how the Aggies had basically played the "perfect game" versus North Carolina in their prior game and how that tends to be followed by a team falling flat in their next game. That is exactly what happened and the Wolverines dominated them last night. I look for a similar result here. Clemson played their "perfect game" versus Auburn in a blowout win Sunday and I expect them to come crashing down to earth big-time in this one. The loss of forward Donte Grantham (ACL) is going to be felt here as the Jayhawks frontcourt holds a big edge in this one in my opinion. The Tigers have shot the ball very well so far in this tourney but they certainly face a much bigger test Friday and, keep in mind, Clemson had been held to 58 points or less in 4 of their 7 games prior the Big Dance. As for the Jayhawks, they've scored at least 74 points in 10 of their last 11 games. Before allowing Seton Hall to shoot 45.3% Sunday, Kansas had held 5 of their last 7 opponents to 42.9% or less from the field. The Jayhawks are 8-2 SU (7-3 ATS) last 10 NCAA Tourney games while the Tigers are a long-term 3-5 SU and ATS in the Big Dance. Also, Clemson is 0-4 ATS last 4 versus Big 12 opponents. 8* KANSAS |
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03-22-18 | Texas A&M v. Michigan -2.5 | Top | 72-99 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #818 Thursday 10* Top Play Michigan Wolverines vs Texas A & M Aggies @ 7:35 ET - The Aggies played the perfect game versus North Carolina and now the public is so enamored with Texas A & M that the line on Michigan in this game is being driven down from as high as a -4 to where it is now seems headed for a -2. Sure the Aggies looked great but everything was falling in for them and coming up roses while the Tar Heels couldn't buy a bucket. It was just one of those nights but now everyone over-reacts and you know where the value is now. Keep in mind, the Aggies beat a Providence team in round one that is certainly a good team but not great. Now A & M faces a Michigan team that has won 11 straight games and has allowed less than 35% from the field so far in this tourney. The Wolverines had a very tough shooting effort in their tight win over Houston in the 2nd round but Michigan had previously shot 44% or better in 8 straight games! Keep in mind, the Aggies (prior to getting hot in the first two games of this tourney) were held under 39.4% from the field in 3 straight games. I am not sold on this Aggies team but the world is and that has created value that is truly off the charts here with a Wolverines team that was seeded #3 with good reason! Big value here. 10* MICHIGAN |
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03-22-18 | 76ers -7.5 v. Magic | Top | 118-98 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #801 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Orlando Magic @ 7:05 ET - The 76ers are in a back to back spot here but they got up huge last night versus Memphis and were able to rest up for tonight's game at Orlando. Also, the Sixers first two back to backs this season have seen them win both and average 115 points per game. The Magic just don't have the offense to keep up here. Orlando has lost 7 of their last 8 games. The Magic were held to 88 points or less in 5 of those 7 defeats. To put that in proper perspective, Philly has been held to 88 points or less just once this entire season. In fact, the 76ers have scored 98 points or more in 12 straight games. That's why odds are high that another Philly victory by a double digit margin is on tap here. The Sixers have won both meetings with the Magic this season by double digits and the average margin of those games was 15 points. Another rout here. Orlando 4-10 SU and ATS versus Atlantic Division opponents this season. The 76ers are 10-4 SU and ATS versus Southeast Division opponents this season. Philly is 16-10 SU and 17-9 ATS this season when off of a non-conference game. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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03-22-18 | Loyola-Chicago v. Nevada -118 | 69-68 | Loss | -118 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #816 Thursday 8* Nevada Wolf Pack (-) vs Loyola (IL) Ramblers @ 7:05 ET - The Ramblers have become everyone's underdog to root for in this tourney no doubt but sports betting is about value and winning and certainly not about rooting interest. That said, this is a fantastic line value on Nevada. The Wolf Pack just showed incredible resiliency in their come back win over Cincinnati. If they can come back from 21 down midway through the 2nd half against a top team like the Bearcats, there is no doubt that if Loyola is even fortunate enough to get a lead here in this game it certainly won't be insurmountable. Nevada is starting to believe and I know the Ramblers are a great story with their last second wins but that story ends tonight. The Wolf Pack played the tougher schedule and are a long-term 45-24 ATS versus teams with a winning record. The Ramblers have been very fortunate in their current 4-0 ATS run as their last three games have seen their opponent shoot 61.5% from the FT line in one game and 50% from the charity stripe in each of the other two games. Loyola actually allowed 48% from the field in their two NCAA Tourney games. The way Nevada shut down the Bearcats to make that huge game-ending run over the final 10 or so minutes of the game carries over here. The OT win over Texas and the amazing comeback versus a quality Cincy team shows that you're team of destiny is likely to be the Wolf Pack in this tourney, not the Ramblers as this one is NOT going to come down to a shot in the final seconds of the game. 8* NEVADA |
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03-21-18 | Nuggets -9 v. Bulls | Top | 135-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #761 Wednesday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (-) @ Chicago Bulls @ 8:05 ET - Yesterday this line was as high as double digits but as of early this morning it has settled in at -9 in most spots. Of course the majority are looking at this game and find it hard to justify laying this big of a spread on the road but, trust me, the odds makers knew what they were doing setting this line this high. This one has road rout written all over it. Denver is fighting for their playoff lives but off of back to back losses and that is why they will take out their frustration on a Bulls team that has nothing to play for at this point in the season. Also, helping our cause here is the fact that Chicago is quite banged up right now. Denver is 4-1 SU and ATS their last 5 meetings with the Bulls but only won by a single point in their non-covering win over the Bulls at home earlier this season. Chicago shot unusually well in that game and that won't happen again here. The Bulls have been held 45.1% or less from the field in 6 of their last 8 games. After the epic multiple-overtime loss at Miami Monday, Denver is fired up about responding huge here at Chicago. The Nuggets are a long-term 20-10 ATS after a game in which they allowed 130 points or more. The Bulls have lost 10 of their last 14 games and the Nuggets are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 wins. In other words, odds favor a big win and cover for the road fave in this one. 10* DENVER |
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03-21-18 | Western Kentucky +4.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 92-84 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #765 Wednesday 10* Top Play Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (+) @ Oklahoma State Cowboys @ 8 ET - Even though the Cowboys had a shot at the cover versus Stanford Wednesday, they certainly were fortunate to even have that end-game opportunity as they were unimpressive again. For the 4th straight game Oklahoma State was held under 41% from the field. I look for the cold shooting to catch up with them here because Western Kentucky comes into this game red hot. The Hilltoppers have shot better than 53.5% in each of their two games in this tournament and it is not like they played push-overs. Western Kentucky faced Boston College and USC. Also, prior to allowing 46.8% from the field against the Trojans, the Hilltoppers had held each of their 3 prior opponents to 38.5% or less from the field. Western Kentucky allowed just 59.3 points per game in those 3 contests. The Hilltoppers are 6-1 ATS as an underdog this season and also are 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS in all tournament games this season. The Cowboys are 2-9 ATS this season in games with a posted total in the 140s. Also, Oklahoma State has gone 0-3 ATS this season when playing with 1 day or less of rest between games. 10* WESTERN KENTUCKYÂ |
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03-21-18 | Hornets v. Nets OVER 221.5 | 111-105 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #757 Wednesday 8* OVER the total in Brooklyn Nets vs Charlotte Hornets @ 7:35 ET - When a team is giving up a lot of points but still winning the tendency is to still overlook the shortcomings of their defensive efforts. That said, look for Brooklyn to continue their recent trend of high-scoring games as they are off of back to back wins but have allowed an average of 117 points per game in their last 10 games (only 1 of those was an OT game). As for Charlotte, they have been playing at a faster pace than usual and that is why their opponents have averaged 97 field goal attempts per game their last 4 games! The over is 5-2 in the Hornets last 7 games and they've allowed 119.4 points per game in these contests - none of which went to OT. That said, and with Charlotte having now faded from the playoff picture, tonight's battle features two teams simply playing out the string on the season which means all offense and no defense will be a recurring them throughout this match-up. The over is 7-3 in Brooklyn's last 10 games. Also, the Nets are 14-9 to the over in home games with a posted total of 220 points or more. In other words, don't let the big number on this one scare you. The over is 9-4 the last 13 times Charlotte has faced a team allowing 106 points or more per game and I expect that trend to continue here. 8* OVER the total in Brooklyn |
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03-20-18 | Raptors v. Magic OVER 214 | Top | 93-86 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #651 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Orlando Magic vs Toronto Raptors @ 7:05 ET - Who would play defense in this one and why? The Raptors certainly have bigger fish to fry and the Magic are just playing out the string on the season. Orlando is off of a very ugly game versus Boston Friday which is helping to give line value here as that one fell well short of the total. The fact is that, prior to that game, the Magic had allowed an average of 112.7 points per game in their 3 prior games. Also, in their 5 prior home games, Orlando had averaged 113 points per game. These teams just met 3 weeks ago and the total opened up at a 220. With this one opening up a half-dozen points short of that, I'll gladly step in. The Raptors have allowed 54.2% from the field in their last two games and defense is unlikely to be a priority here with a huge game at Cleveland on deck for tomorrow night. The over is 8-4 this season when Toronto is off of an upset loss as a favorite. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Orlando |
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03-20-18 | Penn State +2.5 v. Marquette | Top | 85-80 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #665 Tuesday 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions (+) @ Marquette Golden Eagles @ 7 ET - Yes Marquette has home court edge but there is a reason they opened at nearly a pick'em in this game. Now that the line is all the way up to a 2.5 as of early gameday morning it is "go time" with this one. The big edge the Nittany Lions have here is on the defensive end. Additionally, Penn State is loaded with confidence because they've notched a number of significant victories away from home this season. PSU just got a big win at Notre Dame here in the NIT and, previous to this, the Nittany Lions defeated Ohio State 3 times this season (including on a neutral floor and in Columbus) and they also lost at Purdue by just 3 points! Penn State has proven multiple times that they can raise their level away from home against top quality competition. The Golden Eagles shoot the 3-ball well but so too do the Nittany Lions. The key is on the defensive end where Penn State has allowed less than 30.9% from beyond the arc in 4 of their last 6 games. By comparison, Marquette has given up 35% or more from three point land in 8 of their last 11 games! On the season the Golden Eagles are allowing a dozen points more per game than PSU is. The Nittany Lions are 10-4 ATS in tournament games and 7-2 ATS their last 9 games versus teams that averaged 77 points or more per game. Marquette is 6-12 ATS this season after allowing 80 points or more in their prior game. 10* PENN STATE |
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03-19-18 | Grizzlies v. Nets OVER 211.5 | Top | 115-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #611 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Brooklyn Nets vs Memphis Grizzlies @ 7:35 ET - I successfully used the over in Brooklyn when the Nets hosted the Mavericks Saturday and this is a very similar situation. You have two non-conference foes matched up and both teams playoff aspirations are long gone. Simply put this is the perfect type of match-up that lacks in intensity and that almost always features loosely played defense and up-tempo offense throughout. The fact that both the Grizzlies and Nets are off of wins also helps in this regard as that further lessens the likelihood of any intense defense being played here. The over is 15-5 the last 20 times these teams have met in New York. Also, Brooklyn enters this game having gone 6-3 to the over in their last 9 games. They've allowed 117.2 points per game in those 9 contests. The Grizzlies, prior to a very rare win Saturday, had allowed 115.3 points per game in their 3 prior games. When Memphis enters a game having played each of their 3 prior games at home, the over has gone 19-8. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Brooklyn |
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03-19-18 | Stanford v. Oklahoma State -7.5 | Top | 65-71 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #618 Monday 10* Top Play Oklahoma State Cowboys (-) vs Stanford Cardinal @ 7 ET - This is a #2 vs #3 match-up in the NIT and the line may seem high given the small difference in seeding between these teams. However, don't be fooled, the Cowboys should absolutely win this game by double digits. Oklahoma State shot very poorly versus Florida Gulf Coast in the opening round but still won that game by double digits. Given that the Cowboys are again at home and off of a rare poor shooting performance, I expect a big game from Oklahoma State on the offensive end. As for the other end of the floor, the Cowboys have been playing much better than the Cardinal. OSU has held 6 of their last 7 opponents to 41.7% or less from the field. Stanford, on the other hand, has allowed 44.7% or more in 5 of their last 6 games. The Cardinal have allowed 83 points or more in 4 of their last 6 games. The Cowboys have given up 68 points or less in 4 of their last 6 games. Oklahoma State has covered 6 of their last 7 games. Stanford is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 true road games. The Cardinal are 3-11 ATS their last 14 non-conference games. The Cowboys are 9-5 ATS this season in games with a posted total in the 150s and they get the job done again here. 10* OKLAHOMA STATE |
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03-18-18 | Florida State +6 v. Xavier | Top | 75-70 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #719 Sunday 10* Top Play Florida State Seminoles (+) vs Xavier Musketeers @ 8:40 ET - Here we go again. The odds makers, in the eyes of the public and therefore the betting markets, don't know what they're doing. After all, why would they make #1 seed Xavier only a 4 point favorite over the #9 seed Florida State? Guys I have said it many times before and I'll say it again. The odds makers are sharp. They know what they're doing. That doesn't mean that a method like this works all the time (because crazy things do happen in games from time to time as we all know) but the point is that this method does work quite often. That method is being contrarian and, of course, everyone has pounded on the #1 seed Musketeers here and driven this line all the way up to a 6 as of gameday morning. I'll gladly grab the other side and take the generous points. The Seminoles have more than enough to make up for the potential absence of Terance Mann and played Friday's game looking like the team they were early this season. Remember the Noles were 12-2 in early January after a win over North Carolina. This is a talented team that is very dangerous when they raise their game to another level and they proved that to be true again with their dominating effort versus Missouri in round one. Xavier is just 1-3 ATS in neutral court games this season and FSU is a long-term 6-1 ATS as a neutral court dog of 3.5 to 6 points AND all 6 of those wins were OUTRIGHT wins! Another potential upset here but at least a cover the way I handicap this one! 10* FLORIDA STATE |
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03-18-18 | Clemson v. Auburn -119 | Top | 84-53 | Loss | -119 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
Marquee Mauling - Rickenbach CBB Game #724 Sunday 10* Top Play Auburn Tigers (-) vs Clemson Tigers @ 7:10 ET - With this money line available at -120 as of early Sunday morning I would certainly recommend playing the money line for those of you that have access to it. Auburn went 21-6 SU this season versus teams with a winning record. Clemson went only 6-8 SU their last 14 games against teams with a winning record. Keep in mind that poor stretch for Clemson relates closely to the time period that Donte Grantham has been out. The forward was lost for the season with an ACL injury and Clemson was a different team when he was on the floor. Auburn is on a 5-game ATS losing streak but there is no spread to be concerned with here with this line at virtually a pick'em. That said, I look for Auburn to improve to 14-1 SU this season in non-conference games. 10* AUBURN |
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03-18-18 | Texas A&M v. North Carolina -6 | 86-65 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Game #710 Sunday 8* North Carolina Tar Heels (-) vs Texas A & M Aggies @ 5:15 ET - The Aggies shot the ball surprisingly well and still barely covered versus Providence in their round one win. I am not sold on Texas A & M just yet. Keep in mind they had been held under 39.4% from the field in each of their 3 games prior to the win over the Friars. Also, the Aggies had been held to 30% or less from 3-point land in 5 of their 7 prior games. Now Texas A & M faces a Tar Heels team that averages 82 points per game and is shooting 36.6% from beyond the arc on the season. UNC didn't cover against Lipscomb in the opening round but of course they didn't care, that was just a "win and move on" game and they were looking ahead to this tougher game that would be against Providence or the Aggies. Enter Texas A & M and North Carolina will be ready. They're playing their best basketball of the season and have won 10 of their last 13 games. The Heels non-cover versus Lipscomb was just their 4th ATS loss in those 13 games. Aggies 10-16 ATS as an underdog. UNC 18-3 SU and 15-6 ATS in March games. This is the time of year when the Tar Heels kick things up a notch and I really like them to make a run in this year's post-season as their entire starting five is made up of upperclassmen. 8* NORTH CAROLINA |
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03-18-18 | Thunder v. Raptors OVER 217 | Top | 132-125 | Win | 100 | 4 h 51 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #701 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Raptors vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 1:05 ET - The Raptors and Thunder have gone over the total in each of their last 4 meetings. Overall, Toronto is 20-8 to the over in their last 28 games against Northwest Division opponents. Keep in mind, the Raptors aren't going to play as intense of defense against non-conference opponents as they would against a division rival. The same holds true for Oklahoma City and I look for the over to improve to 6-3 in Thunder games versus Atlantic Division rivals this season. The over is 5-2 in OKC's last 7 road games. Toronto is 20-2 SU in their last 22 games and their dynamic offense has led the way. The Raptors have averaged 115.5 points per game in those contests. They are a 6.5 point favorite here. If they just hit their recent average and the odds makers are right about the spread in this one, you're talking about a game hitting 225 points. That said, we have plenty of value here for a top play and that is what I am going with. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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03-18-18 | Butler +3.5 v. Purdue | 73-76 | Win | 100 | 5 h 37 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #713 Sunday 8* Butler Bulldogs (+) vs Purdue Boilermakers @ 12:10 ET - The Bulldogs lost by 15 to Purdue in mid-December despite a huge edge in offensive rebounds and despite having 18 more field goal attempts. Butler is a long-term 26-9 ATS in NCAA Tournament games and that includes 5-1 ATS in recent seasons. Purdue is 5-12 ATS in games with a posted total in the 140s this season. Don't you find it interesting that the #2 seed Boilermakers opened as only a 3.5 point favorite over a #10 seed Bulldogs team? Precisely! You know where I am going with this. It is the type of contrarian play I love. The masses will be lining up on the small favorite and I am grabbing the points! 8* BUTLER |
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03-17-18 | Florida +2 v. Texas Tech | Top | 66-69 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
NCAA 2nd Round Game of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Game #533 Saturday 10* Top Play Florida Gators (+) vs Texas Tech Red Raiders @ 8:40 ET - The Gators had some slip-ups this season but when they come to play they can play with anybody. That said, their performance against St Bonaventure in Round 1 showed me they're ready to go here in the Big Dance. Keep in mind, Florida beat Cincinnati, Kentucky, and Texas A & M in the regular season plus also beat Gonzaga by 6 and lost to Duke by just 3 points! Texas Tech's 10 point win over Stephen F Austin is the perfect example of a deceiving final score as the Lumberjacks were really in that game most of the way against the Red Raiders. It was the 8th straight Texas Tech game where the Red Raiders did not cover and I expect this one to make it 9 in a row. Keep in mind, TT entered that game on a 2-5 SU run and that included losses to West Virginia twice and Kansas as well. The point is that the Red Raiders have had trouble against the top teams in the nation and they're in trouble again here in my opinion. Texas Tech is on a 5-13 ATS run against teams with a winning record! The Gators are a long-term 9-4 SU and 10-3 ATS versus Big 12 opponents and also an overall 12-4 ATS in games on a neutral court with a line between pick'em and +3. They get the job done again here! 10* FLORIDA |
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03-17-18 | Mavs v. Nets OVER 213.5 | Top | 106-114 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Brooklyn Nets vs Dallas Mavericks @ 7:35 ET - This is the ideal type of late season match-up and scheduling situation that I look for when it comes to finding what should be an easy over. Non-conference match-up, two teams eliminated from playoff contention already, and both teams in a back to back spot. The fact each of these teams were in action last night means tired legs on defense which means less effort trying to close out on shooters or make the switch on screens, etc. The fact that neither team has playoff pressure means plenty of free-flowing offense in this one. Both teams scored very well last night and I expect more of the same here. Brooklyn has gone over the total each of the last two times they've hosted the Mavericks and the Nets game at Dallas earlier this season also went over the total. There should be very little defense in this game! 10* OVER the total in Brooklyn |
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03-17-18 | Seton Hall +4.5 v. Kansas | Top | 79-83 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #527 Saturday 10* Top Play Seton Hall Pirates (+) vs Kansas Jayhawks @ 7:10 ET - The #1 seed Jayhawks are laying a very small number against the #8 seed Pirates. Of course you know what that means for a contrarian guy like me. When something looks "off" or "too easy" you know where I'll be more often than not...on the other side! Many will be lining up to lay a very small number with a top-seeded Kansas team but I believe the odds makers were very sharp in the way they set this line because Seton Hall is built well for an upset here. If the Pirates do fall short look for it to be by just a single possession (3 points or less). Seton Hall is loaded with upper classmen, is solid both in the frontcourt and backcourt, and they are hungry after first round exits from the tourney each of the past two seasons. Now, after getting past NC State in the first game, look for the Pirates to make some noise in this tourney. The Jayhawks have been hot but Seton Hall is on a 6-0 ATS run. Also, Kansas only got 4 points from their bench in the win over Penn Thursday. The Quakers hung around with the Jayhawks until midway through the 2nd half. The Pirates can do more than just "hang around" here and the thin bench of Kansas could do them in here especially with 7-footer Udoka Azubuike still dealing with a knee injury for the Jayhawks. The Pirates are a long-term 26-11 ATS as an underdog and Kansas is 0-3 ATS the last 3 times they've held an opponent to 66 points or less. They held Pennsylvania to 60 points Thursday. 10* SETON HALL |
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03-17-18 | Buffalo v. Kentucky -5.5 | 75-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Game #538 Saturday 8* Kentucky Wildcats (-) vs Buffalo Bulls @ 5:15 ET - With all due respect to the Bulls for a strong season and an upset win over Arizona Thursday, this is not the MAC! Yes, I know they just beat a Pac-12 team and certainly deserve credit for that but they shot lights out while Arizona made only 11% of their three pointers in that game! Now Buffalo faces an SEC school known for being a basketball powerhouse. I know it has been a "down season" by Wildcats standards but Kentucky is now playing their best basketball of the season. UK has won 8 of their last 9 games both SU and ATS and they're ready to make a run here in the Big Dance. Look for Buffalo to drop to 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS in games versus SEC opponents. As for the Wildcats, they are peaking at the right time and are 15-2 SU (and 13-4 ATS) in tournament games. 8* KENTUCKY |
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03-17-18 | Alabama v. Villanova OVER 148 | 58-81 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 49 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #525 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Villanova Wildcats vs Alabama Crimson Tide @ 12:10 ET - The Crimson Tide shot the ball very well in their win over Virginia Tech Thursday. This was the 3rd time in 4 games that they've shot at least 47.5% from the field. The issue for Alabama is on the other end of the floor where they've now allowed 84.5 points per game on 60% shooting from the field in their last two games. The high-powered Wildcats are ready to take advantage. Villanova is averaging 87 points per game this season and they're on a 13-3 run to the over in their last 16 games. The over is 4-1 this season when the Crimson Tide are off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more. On the season Alabama has trended under but the Wildcats are the better team and will dictate the tempo of the game here and they've trended over all season long. The Cats are 23-11 to the over on the season. 8* OVER the total in Villanova |
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03-16-18 | Syracuse +4.5 v. TCU | Top | 57-52 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
NCAA 1st Round Game of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Game #875 Friday 10* Top Play Syracuse Orange (+) vs TCU Horned Frogs @ 9:40 ET - TCU started the season 12-0 and then wrapped up the season going 9-11. The Horned Frogs numbers on offense are impressive but they leave a lot to be desired on the defensive end. Facing Syracuse is going to be a problem as the Orange play a unique style that is tough to prepare for when you're not use to seeing it. This games has a low total posted on it because the odds makers are expecting Syracuse to dictate the tempo. That said, it is certainly noteworthy that TCU is an ugly 4-7 SU in neutral court games with a posted total in the 135 to 139.5 range. Also, as a neutral court favorite of 3.5 to 6 points, the Horned Frogs have gone 2-6 ATS and all 6 of those losses were upset defeats which is what I am expecting here. It actually helps that the Orange had the play-in game on Wednesday and they certainly impressed in their ability to slow down a high-powered Arizona State offense. Syracuse should do the same thing to TCU here. The Orange will take advantage of a Horned Frogs team that will struggle with its shooting after the long layoff. Syracuse is 11-2 ATS (including 4-0 ATS in recent seasons) when they are a neutral court dog of 3.5 to 6 points. TCU went 1-4 SU this season when held to 68 points or less in a game and the Orange allowed 68 points or less in 22 of their 34 games this season. 10* SYRACUSE |
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03-16-18 | Nets v. 76ers -8 | Top | 116-120 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
Philly Special - Rickenbach NBA Game #804 Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Brooklyn Nets @ 7:05 ET - Though this is a back to back spot for Philadelphia, there is no shortage of motivation here and clearly the 76ers are the better team of course. This is the first time that the Sixers are hosting the Nets since Brooklyn thoroughly embarrassed them in a 141-118 loss last April. Philly owes it to their home fans to get payback for that one here and, of course, the Sixers need every win they can get right now as they battle for playoff positioning. The line on this one opened up at 11.5 but is all the way down to an 8.5 as of early Friday morning. Of course that has added to the value here and the Sixers are 20-10 ATS at home this season and 8-3 ATS their last 11 games versus teams that allow 106 points or more per game. Brooklyn is 1-11 SU (and 4-8 ATS) in divisional games this season and the 76ers avenge last season's embarrassing home loss and, though this is a back to back spot, they still crush the Nets. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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03-16-18 | Kansas State +1 v. Creighton | Top | 69-59 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #865 Friday 10* Top Play Kansas State Wildcats (+) vs Creighton Bluejays @ 6:50 ET - Creighton's overall numbers on the season look impressive but they rely heavily on outside shooting and that has not traveled well for them this season. The Bluejays are strong at home but on the road they've knocked down a more modest 34.8% of their threes while allowing 39.1% three-point shooting to their opponents. Creighton averages 77.2 ppg on the road while allowing 82.3 ppg away from home! While most all teams have a home/road dichotomy the Bluejays is at the far end of the spectrum and I will take advantage by backing Kansas State here. The Wildcats were no match for Kansas in the Big 12 tournament but, prior to that, the Cats had held 7 of their last 9 opponents to 67 points or less. That holds significance here as the Bluejays (prior to a tight loss in the Big East tournament) had allowed 83 points or more in 4 of their last 5 games. Creighton is 2-8 ATS their last 10 lined games. The Wildcats were 5-3 ATS their last 8 games away from home prior to the ugly loss to the Jayhawks. The Cats are 4-0 SU the last 4 times they've played with 5 or 6 days of rest between games while the Bluejays are just 2-2 SU as their shooting tends to go cold after a layoff. Also, Creighton is on an ugly 3-9 ATS run versus teams with a winning record. Going contrarian here. Give me the lower seed! 10* KANSAS STATE |
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03-16-18 | Murray State +10.5 v. West Virginia | 68-85 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #887 Thursday 8* Murray State Racers (+) vs West Virginia Mountaineers @ 4 ET - Plenty of veteran leadership in the form of upperclassmen on this Murray State team. Yes they come from the Ohio Valley Conference but these guys can play and they are loaded with confidence right now. That makes for a dangerous combination for West Virginia to contend with here. Sure, the Mountaineers played the tougher schedule on the season but the Racers enter this game having won 13 games in a row. Murray State has covered 4 games in a row and only 1 of their 5 losses this season came by more than 5 points. Keep in mind, West Virginia is only 9-9 SU since starting the season 15-1. The Mountaineers have allowed 50% from the field in their last 4 games. The Racers have only allowed about 40% from the field in their last 10 games! Murray State went 3-1 SU and ATS versus teams that average 77 points or more per game this season. West Virginia went 3-7 ATS this season versus teams that average 77 points or more per game. This could be one of the upsets many have been looking for and if the Racers do fall short I still expect it to be a game in which they keep it within single digits. 8* MURRAY STATE |
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03-16-18 | Butler -125 v. Arkansas | 79-62 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Game #871 Friday 8* Butler Bulldogs (-) vs Arkansas Razorbacks @ 3:10 ET - The line at the time of this posting is a 1.5 but you can get the Bulldogs on the money line at a -125 price so I would suggest laying the extra price to have Butler just to win the game SU if you have access to money lines. The Bulldogs are one of only 4 teams that beat Villanova this season. Also, Butler is a very balanced team as they are strong on both ends of the floor. The same certainly can not be said for Arkansas. Though the Razorbacks have a strong offense, they are weak on the defensive end. Yes some of the Bulldogs percentages on the defensive end aren't what you would expect but they can "dial it up" on defense and they faced very tough competition in the Big East. Arkansas allowed over 40.5% from three point land in 4 of their last 6 games and Butler held 8 of their last 12 under 35.8% from beyond the arc. The Bulldogs are 19-4 ATS in first round tournament games, 12-4 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 3 points or less, and 6-1 ATS when they enter a game on an ATS losing streak of 3 or more games. The Razorbacks went 3-11 ATS this season against teams that average 77 points or more per game and Arkansas is in trouble again here as they won't be able to stop the Bulldogs. 8* BUTLER |
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03-16-18 | Providence +2.5 v. Texas A&M | 69-73 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 42 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #867 Friday 8* Providence Friars (+) vs Texas A & M Aggies @ 12:15 ET - Friars 32-18 ATS L50 as an underdog. Providence covered 10 of last 15 games versus teams with a winning record. Overall, Friars covered 5 of last 6 games and the lone ATS loss narrowly missed covering. Providence has been playing very well on the defensive end. Aggies enter this game on just a 3-4 SU (and 2-5 ATS run!) and are over-rated in my opinion. After yesterday was nearly devoid of upsets, you're going to see a few more today on Friday and though this is only a "mild one" (10 seed over a 7 seed) it is an upset I am expecting. Grab the points just in case but Texas A & M likely to struggle again here. Aggies only 2-7 ATS (and 2-7 SU!) when off of a loss in conference action and Friars have played the tougher competition in recent games which has them battle-ready here! 8* PROVIDENCE |
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03-15-18 | Alabama v. Virginia Tech -2 | Top | 86-83 | Loss | -102 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Game #722 Thursday 10* Top Play Virginia Tech Hokies (-) vs Alabama Crimson Tide @ 9:20 ET - Time and time again when Alabama faced a big game it seems they tensed up and could not make shots. The Crimson Tide shooting performance to close out the season was abysmal and I don't foresee any reason that should change here as Bama faces the pressure of a "win or go home" situation. The Tide were held under 38% from the field in 3 of their last 5 games. Alabama averaged just 60.3 points per game in those 3 games. The Hokies certainly haven't been lighting up the scoreboard of late but they faced a slew of tough opponents and Virginia Tech at least shot 44% or better until they were held to 42% in their loss to Notre Dame in the ACC Tournament. The Hokies have wins over Duke, North Carolina, and Virginia this season. They have proven they can beat the best teams in the nation and I think they step up here and crush Alabama. The Crimson Tide have lost 6 of their last 8 games and Donta Hall is listed as questionable here. Hall leads the team in rebounds and blocked shots and is 2nd in scoring. Alabama is 0-4 ATS this season after allowing 80 points or more in their prior game. The Hokies are 14-5 ATS in first round tournament games and also went 7-2 ATS this season in non-conference games. Compared to the Crimson Tide, the Hokies are the much better shooting team including from three point land. 10* VIRGINIA TECH |
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03-15-18 | San Diego State v. Houston -4 | Top | 65-67 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #732 Thursday 10* Top Play Houston Cougars (-) vs San Diego State Aztecs @ 7:20 ET - On the surface, it would seem logical to grab the points with the team that has won 9 straight games and gone 8-1 ATS in the process. Of course, defying logic is a big part of being a contrarian and the fact is that the Aztecs are going to have their hands full with a Cougars team that is also playing their best basketball of the season. Houston, prior to losing by a single point to a quality Cincinnati team in their conference tournament, had won 10 of their 11 previous games. Both these teams play solid defense but the Cougars numbers are even better and, again, they face a tougher schedule than San Diego State does. Also, Houston is the much better shooting team from three point land in comparison with the Aztecs. San Diego State is a long-term 7-11 ATS (and 6-12 SU) as an underdog and only 3 of Houston's 27 wins this season came by less than 4 points. Only 2 of San Diego State's 10 losses came by less than 4 points. The Cougars are 5-1 ATS when off of a game where they were held under 60 points and they are also a perfect 4-0 ATS this season when off of a loss to a conference foe. 10* HOUSTON |
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03-15-18 | 76ers v. Knicks OVER 217 | Top | 118-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
Philly Special - Rickenbach NBA Game #705 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Knicks vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 7:35 ET - The 76ers kicked me hard on Tuesday when their game versus the Pacers did not go over the total. The game was perfectly on pace with the 1st quarter, 2nd quarter, 3rd quarter...ALL 3...being perfect for an over. Then came a dreadful 4th quarter that burned badly. I wasn't the only one getting burned as the Sixers did too! That dreadful performance cost them an important W in the standings. As a result, I look for Philly to take out their frustration on a dreadful Knicks team and that means plenty of points here! New York is 9-2 to the over in their last 11 games versus teams that average 106 points or more per game. The fact is that the Knicks just aren't playing defense any more and the over was 7-2 in their 9 games prior to a rare under versus Dallas Tuesday. As for the Sixers, they've averaged 113 points per game in their last 5 road games and they will not take their foot off of the gas after what happened against the Pacers! 10* OVER the total in New York |
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03-15-18 | Loyola-Chicago +2 v. Miami-FL | 64-62 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Game #735 Thursday 8* Loyola (IL) Ramblers vs Miami (FL) Hurricanes @ 3:10 ET - Miami played the much tougher schedule but this Loyola team is a very strong one on both ends of the floor. The concern for the Hurricanes is not only that they went just 4-4 SU in their last 8 games (Ramblers lost only 5 games all season), but it is also the fact that the Canes allowed 52.8% or higher from the field in 3 of the 4 wins! A lack of defense kills a team come tournament time and I like the way Loyola has played on that end of the floor. The Ramblers enter this game on a 10-game winning streak and have won 17 of their last 18. The lone loss came by just 2 points. By the way, the Hurricanes recent wins in their unimpressive 4-4 SU run their last 8 games have come by an average margin of just 2 points per game. That is why there is certainly some additional value by having the points in this one even though they're small. The Ramblers have allowed an average of just 54 points per game their last 5 games! Loyola is 15-1 SU their last 16 games against teams with a winning record. Miami is 4-10 ATS their last 14 games against teams with a winning record. This has the makings of an upset (11 seed over 6 seed) and that is why this line is where it is! Grab the small dog in this one! 8* LOYOLA (IL) |
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03-15-18 | Oklahoma +2.5 v. Rhode Island | 78-83 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 1 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #723 Thursday 8* Oklahoma Sooners (+) vs Rhode Island Rams @ 12:15 ET - The Rams have the better record by far, they are the higher seed, and this line is an enticing to the markets to take Rhode Island and lay the small number. Of course you know what that means where there appears to be an enticement on the board. It means it usually doesn't pan out and it certainly is something that bears digging deeper into. In this case, a huge key is that Oklahoma played a much tougher schedule than the Rams did. The strength of schedule edge that the Sooners had this season will serve them well in crunch time in this game. Though I don't expect it to last throughout the tournament, I do expect freshman phenom Trae Young to have a huge game here. Oklahoma is 9-3 SU in their last 12 March games and they went 10-2 SU in non-conference games this season. Though the Rams have the better defensive stats by far, Rhode Island is actually 2-5 ATS when facing a team that allows 77 points or more per game. Also, the Rams are 6-11 ATS when off of a loss in conference action. 8* OKLAHOMA |
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03-14-18 | Temple +10 v. Penn State | Top | 57-63 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
Philly Special - Rickenbach CBB Game #617 Wednesday 10* Top Play Temple Owls (+) @ Penn State Nittany Lions @ 8 ET - Yes the Nittany Lions are home and yes they won 20 games this season. However, Penn State displayed awful shooting in the Big Ten Tournament. The Nittany Lions averaged 36% from the field in their 3 Big Ten Tourney games. Now PSU hosts a Temple team that relishes the role of underdog and that shot very well in their conference tournament. The Owls shot 48% from the field and that included a match-up with Wichita State! Temple comes into this game with plenty of confidence after the way they battled with the Shockers and 6 of their last 10 losses have come by 8 points or less. On the season the majority of their losses were by 8 points or less and I love the big dog value we're being offered here in a game for Pennsylvania pride. As a road dog of 9.5 to 12 points Temple is 3-1 ATS and all 3 victories were SU upset wins! Also, the Owls are 11-3 ATS in tournament games the last 3 seasons combined. Yes PSU is definitely improved and they are at home here. But still are they truly 10 points better in this situation? I don't believe so. They've won only half of their last 4 home meetings with Temple. The Owls have won the other 6 meetings. So the point is that the Nittany Lions are only 2-8 SU their last 10 games versus Temple and I know that Penn State is improved and the Owls are down a little overall this season. But when you look at the way these teams shot in the conference tourneys too and how that is likely to carry over here, the road dog has some big scoring runs in them here. 10* TEMPLE |
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03-14-18 | North Carolina Central v. Texas Southern -5.5 | 46-64 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #610 Wednesday 8* Texas Southern Tigers (-) vs North Carolina Central Eagles @ 6:40 ET - After starting the season 0-13, the Tigers finished up the campaign going 15-6 their last 21 games. Of course Texas Southern had a brutal non-conference schedule filled with road games against top quality programs. I believe this will serve the Tigers well here and their strength of schedule was much tougher than that of North Carolina Central. Have to give the Eagles credit for getting here of course but they did get a rather favorable string of match-ups through their conference tourney with the only truly tough opponent coming in the Championship Game when they got by Hampton. Keep in mind, prior to their conference tourney, in their last 5 road games of the regular season, NC Central went 0-5 SU and ATS in road games. Of course this is a neutral site game but the point is that the Eagles couldn't do anything away from home and they'll have their hands full with taking a big step up in class (don't be fooled by Texas Southern's overall season record) and the Tigers should roll in this one. 8* TEXAS SOUTHERN |
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03-13-18 | Pacers v. 76ers OVER 211 | 101-98 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
Philly Special - Rickenbach NBA Game #523 Tuesday 8* OVER the total in Philadelphia 76ers vs Indiana Pacers @ 7:05 ET - Pacers games have recorded 7 straight unders but they have shot the ball very well in their last two games and averaged 105.5 points in those. Sixers games have recorded 6 unders in their last 8 games but they've shot better than 50% from the field in 4 of those 5 games. The point is that this total has already come down from an opener of 213.5 and it is understandable based on recent trending but the reality is both teams come into this game confident and shooting the ball very well. I'll happily step in and grab the resulting value. The over is a perfect 5-0 the last 5 times these teams have met in Philadelphia and I expect another one here as the 76ers have allowed 109.3 points per game their last 4 games. Also, I don't see the Pacers stopping the high-flying Sixers offense in Philly in this one either. The result should be a shootout. 8* OVER the total in Philadelphia |
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03-13-18 | Northern Kentucky v. Louisville -6.5 | Top | 58-66 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #547 Tuesday 10* Top Play Louisville Cardinals (-) vs Northern Kentucky Norse @ 7 ET - Big line move toward Northern Kentucky here based on the fact that Louisville certainly had higher hopes than the NIT and, of course, the Norse would love nothing more than to knock off a big in-state school. However, even if Northern Kentucky is up at the half here I would foresee Louisville crushing them in the 2nd half. The Cardinals can approach the NIT two different ways. Make a run at winning the whole thing or just lay down because they're disappointed about not being in the Big Dance. I am confident that the former not the latter will be the case and, once again, even if down at the half, these guys would wake up at halftime and crush the Norse in the 2nd half. They don't want to lose to a much smaller in-state foe. Of course the Cardinals have played a much tougher schedule than the Norse. Also, the Cards have the home court edge here. As a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points, Louisville has gone 8-1 SU and they only failed to cover twice in those 9 games! Before getting knocked out of the ACC Tourney in a game in which Virginia started on fire and the Cardinals hit a bad stretch of shooting in the first half, the Cards had gone 13-6 ATS in their 19 prior games. They bounce right back here. 10* LOUISVILLE |
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03-13-18 | Long Island +5 v. Radford | 61-71 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #543 Tuesday 8* LIU Brooklyn Blackbirds vs Radford Highlanders @ 6:40 ET - Big move toward Radford in this one and I understand based on their defensive numbers on the season. The Highlanders also played a slightly tougher schedule than LIU Brooklyn. However, the key to the value with the Blackbirds here is they have a veteran backcourt that is not going to be rattled by Radford's style of defense. In fact, I like Brooklyn's chances of breaking down the defense and getting some easy buckets in transition. The Blackbirds are loaded with confidence now after finishing the regular season strong and then making a big run through the conference tourney. LIU Brooklyn has won 5 straight games and they are shooting the ball very well. The Blackbirds have held 3 of their last 5 opponents under 35% from the field! Radford has not been shooting the ball well at all as they've been held to 36.2% or less from the field in 3 straight games. On the other end of the floor the Highlanders have allowed 39.5% or more in 5 of their last 6 games. The Blackbirds are 6-2 ATS (and SU!) their last 8 games as an underdog and are relishing that role again here! Radford is a long-term 4-12 ATS as a favorite and I love fading the masses here as the Highlanders are getting plenty of attention. Grab the generous points! 8* LIU BROOKLYN |
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03-12-18 | Spurs +12.5 v. Rockets | Top | 93-109 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #505 Monday 10* Top Play San Antonio Spurs (+) @ Houston Rockets @ 8:05 ET - The Spurs have been left for dead by many but they are still battling for their playoff lives and received some encouraging news about the impending return of Kawhi Leonard. That said, even though Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge are out for this game, San Antonio is going to put up a fight at Houston. The Spurs knocked the Rockets out of the playoffs last year but, of course, this season is entirely different and the fact is that Houston has already gotten revenge (twice) on SA during this season. That has the Spurs actually as arguably the more motivated team here and they will put up a helluva fight. San Antonio certainly has been in a slump but only 2 of their last 17 losses have come by more than a dozen points. With the Rockets James Harden wanting to take care of his ailing knee, I see Houston being careful not to over-exert themselves in this back to back spot. After blasting the Mavericks at Dallas last night, that led to extra value here. 15 of the Rockets last 22 wins, prior to crushing the Mavs, had come by a dozen points or less. The Spurs are 8-4 ATS (and SU!) this season when off of a loss by a double digit margin. The Rockets are a long-term 2-4 ATS (and SU!) when off of a game where they allowed 85 points or less. 10* SAN ANTONIO |
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03-12-18 | North Carolina A&T +11.5 v. Liberty | 52-65 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #513 Monday 8* North Carolina AT & T Aggies @ Liberty Flames @ 6 ET - I know that Liberty has the home court edge and that the play a tougher schedule than North Carolina AT & T does. However, the Flames missed out on a chance to go to the Big Dance because of a last second deep three-pointer at Radford in the conference tourney championship. That type of loss is very difficult to get over as Liberty had visions of the NCAA Tourney dancing in their heads before that gut-wrenching last second shot. I feel this opens up the door for the scrappy Aggies to make a good push early on in this game. That said, even if the Flames are able to recover and get the win I feel they'll struggle to win this by more than single digits. NC AT & T comes into this game having shot very well and averaging 78 points per game in their last two games. On the season they do average 75.6 points per game and Liberty is averaging just 71.2 points per game. Certainly the Flames are the better team defensively but I doubt they're going to be on top of their game after that disappointing loss at Radford. Keep in mind that Liberty had gone on a 5-8 SU run from mid-January through late February and they are simply over-priced here given the situation. 8* NORTH CAROLINA AT & TÂ |
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03-11-18 | 76ers -6 v. Nets | 120-97 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
Philly Special - Rickenbach NBA Game #815 Sunday 8* Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Brooklyn Nets @ 7:35 ET - Revenge game for the Sixers as they lost their only other game with the Nets this season in Brooklyn back on January 31st. Philly was an 8 point favorite for that one but lost the game by 8. Now, even though this situation is a much better one for the 76ers and even though they have revenge, they are only favored by a half-dozen in the rematch. I won't hesitate to lay the points here. The Sixers are off of a rare loss while Brooklyn is off of a rare win. Philly is likely to bounce back as, dating all the way back to Christmas, they have only had a losing streak of more than 1 game twice. The 76ers are 9-2 ATS the last 11 times when off of a loss. As for Brooklyn, they have only managed back to back wins 4 times this entire season! The Nets have allowed 118.6 points per game their last 5 games. The 76ers have allowed 107.2 points per game their last 5 games. Of course this is a difference of 11.4 points and I do expect the Sixers to take this game by double digits. When, in the 2nd half of a season, Philly faces a team that is averaging 106 points or more per game on the season, the Sixers have gone an incredible 25-5 ATS. Also, when entering a game off of 3 or more road games, Philly has gone 8-2 ATS this season. When, in the 2nd half of a season, Brooklyn faces a team that is averaging 106 points or more per game on the season, the Nets have gone an awful 5-24 SU. That certainly holds significance here because when the 76ers win they cover - 32-3 ATS in their 35 SU wins this season! 8* PHILADELPHIAÂ |
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03-11-18 | Pacers v. Celtics OVER 208.5 | Top | 99-97 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #813 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Celtics vs Indiana Pacers @ 7:35 ET - The over is 10-3 in Boston's last 13 games versus teams that are averaging 106 points or more per game. The over is 6-2 this season when the Celtics are off of a game where they scored 115 points or more. The Pacers have stayed under the total in 6 straight games and Indiana's most recent game with Boston was also an easy under. However, their 4 prior meetings with the Celtics all went over the total. Look for Boston, the home team, to dictate the tempo here and 7 of their last 8 games have gone over the total. The Pacers have averaged 105.3 points per game in their last 7 road games. Red hot Boston has won 6 of their last 7 games. The Celtics have averaged 116.9 points per game in their last 8 games. They have allowed an average of 113.5 points per game their last 4 home games and we're getting good value here with the low total on this one. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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03-11-18 | Houston +4.5 v. Cincinnati | Top | 55-56 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #827 Sunday 10* Top Play Houston Cougars (+) vs Cincinnati Bearcats @ 3:30 ET - Of course it goes without saying that the Wichita State team that Houston beat yesterday is certainly a much stronger team than the Memphis team that Cincinnati knocked off. The key to the value here is that the Bearcats expended a lot of energy in the 2nd half to beat the Tigers after a dismal first half effort that was truly inexcusable. For Cincinnati to have a first half like that in a semi-final game truly says a lot about whether or not the Bearcats can be trusted and the answer right now is a no. After back to back non-covering wins for Cincy, they are now 3-5 ATS in their last 8 games and, though they have revenge here they were held to 39% in their last meeting with the Cougars and they have not been shooting well recently either. After yesterday's performance, the Bearcats have been held to 41% from the field in their last 3 games combined. Houston has been at the other end of the spectrum. After scoring 77 against Wichita State yesterday, the Cougars have scored 77 points or more in 6 of their last 7 games. Houston is on a 7-2 ATS run and they've shot 40% or better from three point land in both meetings with the Bearcats this season. The Cougars are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with a winning record and I'll grab the points here as they are 4-2 ATS (and SU!) this season as an underdog. Upset potential certainly looms here! 10* HOUSTON |
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03-11-18 | Pennsylvania v. Harvard OVER 132 | 68-65 | Win | 100 | 5 h 43 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #819 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Harvard Crimson vs Pennsylvania Quakers @ Noon ET - Both of these teams games yesterday stayed under the total but they were games won by wide margins which means there were no late "scramble points" as the games were decided before the latter stages. In today's game you're likely to see a tight close game (of course you can see that by the small number posted on this one) and that means it should be close enough late that there will be some late fouls leading to free throw attempts for the team in the lead and quick shots by the team trailing. Couple that with the fact that these teams regular season games both went over the total with each team shooting well in each game, as well as the fact that the line on today's total has dropped significantly from the over and you have great value here. The over went 4-0 in Harvard's last 4 regular season games. The Crimson also wrapped up the season going 5-0 to the over in their last 5 games played away from home. The Quakers finished up the regular season on a 3-0 run to the over. 8* OVER the total in Pennsylvania |
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03-10-18 | St. Joe's +7.5 v. Rhode Island | 87-90 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
Philly Special - Rickenbach CBB Game #519 Saturday 8* St Joseph's Hawks (+) vs Rhode Island Rams @ 1 ET - The Rams actually were losing outright to VCU yesterday with about 5 minutes to go but rallied for the 9 point win. As for the Hawks, they dominated George Mason yesterday by holding their shooting under 30% overall from the field. St Joseph's has now held each of their last 3 opponents under 37% from the field and that included a big win at Rhode Island a week and a half ago. Of course the Rams are looking to avenge that loss here but the Hawks also certainly weren't happy about getting swept by Rhode Island in last year's series and are looking to return the favor this season by delivering an upset here in conference tourney action. St Joseph's is 9-5 ATS as an underdog this season and the Hawks are also a long-term 7-2 ATS in tournament semi-final games. The Rams didn't cover yesterday's game unless you played them very late in the 30 minutes are so leading up to tip-off. I played against them with VCU and the Rams were +10 and held in the +9.5 range for much of the morning. The point is that Rhode Island failed to cover yesterday for the 5th time in their last 6 games (1-5 ATS run) and I am going to go against them again right here as the Hawks stay hot! The ATS runs above combine for a 21-8 run! 8* St Joseph's |
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03-10-18 | Maryland-Baltimore County +11.5 v. Vermont | 65-62 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #549 Saturday 8* UMBC Retrievers (+) @ Vermont Catamounts @ 11 AM ET - Of course the Catamounts have all the history on their side in their match-up with the Retrievers and they also have the home court edge here. However, UMBC lost badly in both games with Vermont in the regular season and that has led to line value here. The Retrievers lost the two games by an average margin of 21.5 points even though they actually took a combined 5 more shots from the field in the 2 games. The point is that, just with hitting some more shots, the end results would have been much different and UMBC comes into this game as hot as they've been all season. They've won 10 of their last 12 games SU and covered both of their tourney games. Of course the Catamounts are also hot, as usual, as they've won 5 straight but they are just 1-1 ATS in tournament action and this will be, by far, their toughest match-up yet. I like the fact that the Retrievers are a long-term 8-2 ATS in tournament action while Vermont is a long-term 4-9 ATS in their games against teams with a winning record. This will be a much closer game than many are expecting. 8* UMBC |
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03-09-18 | Bulls v. Pistons OVER 212.5 | 83-99 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #803 Friday 8* OVER the total in Detroit Pistons vs Chicago Bulls @ 7:05 ET - The Pistons off of a tough OT loss versus Toronto on Wednesday and they have a long road trip on deck so they want to make sure and take care of business in this one. They don't play again until Tuesday after this one so Detroit won't hesitate to push the pace in this one and the Bulls sub-par defense is unlikely to present a challenge. Chicago has allowed 112 points per game their last 8. The Pistons have allowed 105 points or more in 11 of their last 13 games. Bulls are 4-1 to the over this season when off of 3 straight home games. 8* OVER the total in Detroit |
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03-09-18 | Providence v. Xavier -7.5 | Top | 75-72 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #858 Friday 10* Top Play Xavier Musketeers (-) vs Providence Friars @ 6:30 ET - The Friars are off of a hard-fought OT win over Creighton while Xavier blew right past St John's. That sets up the Musketeers well for pushing the pace and blowing right past Providence here. Xavier now on a 15-5 ATS run in neutral court games. 4 of the last 5 wins for the red hot Musketeers have come by a double digit margin. 10 of Providence's 12 losses this season have been by 9 points or more so, when they lose, they tend to lose big and of course I am not expecting a Friars upset here. In other words, this one has blowout written all over it. Providence is 0-4 ATS in a neutral court game with a posted total between 150 and 154.5 points. Each of the last 5 meetings between these teams has been decided by 9 or more points and I expect another one here. 10* XAVIER |
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03-09-18 | VCU +10 v. Rhode Island | 67-76 | Win | 100 | 6 h 59 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #829 Friday 8* Virginia Commonwealth Rams (+) vs Rhode Island Rams @ Noon ET - VCU lost the regular season match-up and failed to cover with a big key being the fact they got dominated on the glass. However, when you look at how these two teams rebounded during the season that edge doesn't make sense at all. In other words, don't look for a repeat of that here. Also, Virginia Commonwealth has triple revenge here including the fact they were knocked out of the conference tourney by Rhode Island last March after losing to them in February of last year as well. RI 5-11 ATS when off of a loss in conference action. VCU now 5-2 SU and ATS L7 conference tourney games. Payback time! 8* VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH |
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03-08-18 | 76ers +1 v. Heat | Top | 99-108 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #653 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Miami Heat @ 7:35 ET - The Sixers are available at +1 in some spots as of early gameday morning but the bottom line is that this game is roughly a pick'em so I am going to talk about some SU stats here. The fact is that the 76ers are playing this game with revenge for a loss in Miami that should never have happened and they know it. Though all the games had been close this season, Philly let that one get away and they know it never should have happened. Had they not blown the big lead Sixers would be 3-0 against the Heat this season. Close games or not, the 76ers have had the upper hand through most of the playing time between these two teams this season and it is not "old news" either as all of their meetings were in February. With that said, the Sixers are offering great line value here because their loss at Miami is one of only 3 losses they've had in their last 13 games. As for the Heat, their numbers have been nowhere close to that as they've won only 5 of their last 15 games! Sixers 9-3 SU and ATS versus Southeast Division teams this season. Miami is 1-9 SU last 10 versus teams that average 106 points or more per game. Combined stat of 18-4 SU favoring the 76ers here! I'll take it! 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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03-08-18 | San Diego State -3.5 v. Fresno State | Top | 64-52 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #719 Thursday 10* Top Play San Diego State Aztecs (-) vs Fresno State Bulldogs @ Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas, NV @ 5:30 ET - Not only is San Diego State playing this game with double revenge from the regular season, they also hold a huge edge because of a key injury for Fresno State. The Bulldogs recently lost senior guard Jaron Hopkins to injury. In the game he got hurt he had only played 12 minutes and Fresno State lost that game by double digits. In the games since, the Bulldogs scored only 54 points against Air Force and then they lost at New Mexico in OT. When Hopkins was rolling the Bulldogs were rolling - 5 straight wins and he averaged 17.6 points per game. Included in that stretch was a huge 20-point performance from him in the most recent win versus San Diego State. I look for his absence to make a huge difference in this rematch. The Aztecs come in red hot on a 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS run and that continues here as Fresno State remains winless ATS since the Hopkins injury. 10* SAN DIEGO STATE |
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03-08-18 | Boston College +4 v. Clemson | 82-90 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 58 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Game #663 Thursday 8* Boston College Eagles (+) vs Clemson Tigers @ Barclays Center in Brooklyn, NY @ 2:30 ET - At first glance this line might seem "off" to the casual observer as Clemson is ranked, well-rested, and went 22-8 this season and they're only laying 4 points to a Boston College team that was barely above .500 for the regular season and is now playing a 3rd game in 3 days. Don't be fooled though. The Eagles are now officially "in the zone" after they proved they could remain hot a 2nd straight day. Sometimes teams can get that first win but they don't really have the moxie to put together a run but this Eagles team is really starting to believe in themselves after wins over Georgia Tech and NC State in this tourney. Now, here is the biggest key of all though. The Tigers went 16-3 in the 19 games Donte Grantham played. Clemson is only 6-5 in the 11 games since he was lost for the season (ACL). Also, 2 of those wins came against Georgia Tech, 1 against Pittsburgh, and 1 against Wake Forest. Those are the 3 worst teams in the ACC. Yes, the Tigers got one big win (over NC) after Grantham got hurt but their other win was against Florida State which again showed their true disappointing selves in yesterday's loss to these Eagles. The point is that the Tigers (other than the win over the Tar Heels) really don't have a lot to show for their efforts since Grantham was lost for the season. His absence will loom large in today's game too with the way the upstart Eagles have been playing. Clemson 1-4 ATS last 5 games and I am grabbing the points but expecting the upset here! 8* BOSTON COLLEGE |
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03-08-18 | Louisville +7.5 v. Virginia | 58-75 | Loss | -108 | 4 h 15 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #661 Thursday 8* Louisville Cardinals (+) @ Virginia Cavaliers @ Barclays Center in Brooklyn, NY @ Noon ET - The Cardinals get their shot at revenge against the Cavaliers. Not only did Virginia win both games this season, they won the 2nd game in one of the craziest finishes of the season that resulted in a 1-point last second win at Louisville. The Cards enter this game on a 13-6 ATS run and, just as they showed again yesterday, they can get wicked hot with their outside shooting. That is a key to success against the Cavs stifling defense and the Cardinals were down only 5 in the final minutes of their loss at Virginia this season too. In summary, it was a rather tight road loss and a home defeat in the final second for the Cardinals and that is why I am grabbing the generous points being offered in this one on a neutral floor. 8* LOUISVILLE |
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03-07-18 | Raptors v. Pistons +5.5 | Top | 121-119 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #568 Wednesday 10* Top Play Detroit Pistons (+) vs Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - This is a very nice set up for the home dog to get the outright win which means certainly I love having the generous points being offered here. Toronto is in a back to back spot and off of a game they had no business covering last night. I know this all too well as I had Atlanta +13 last night. The Hawks were ahead OUTRIGHT at the end of each of the three quarters and then the fourth quarter so virtual insanity take place over the final 6+ minutes when Atlanta went from 3 down to losing by 16. In the books it looks like a blowout but of course it was anything but and is helping to give nice value here. When the Raptors are not in a back to back this season they have gone 41-13 SU. However, in the 2nd game of a B2B this season they are just 5-4 SU. You can see the huge variance there and the Pistons are seeking revenge for getting blown out by 29 at Toronto last week. Detroit is also hungry because they just ran into a buzzsaw in Cleveland when they faced the Cavaliers right after the Cavs had allowed 126 points in their prior game. Though the Pistons recent numbers don't look that great they have been on the road a lot. Now they're back home where they've won 7 of their last 10 games. Also, prior to the blowout defeat at Toronto, 3 of the 4 prior meetings between these teams had been decided by 5 or less points. Pistons payback here. 10* DETROIT |
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03-07-18 | Colorado State v. Utah State OVER 146 | Top | 65-76 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
Afternoon Contrarian - Rickenbach CBB Game #593 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Utah State Aggies vs Colorado State Rams @ 4:30 ET - The very first total that popped up on this (Monday) was a 150 and it has been dropping ever since. That is part of the reason I am calling this a contrarian play because the markets have moved this one down but I am going with the over. Even though Rams guard J.D. Paige is suspended, people often forget to look at more than just offensive stats when factoring in a player's absence. Coming into this season Colorado State felt that Paige and Prentiss Nixon combined to give the Rams one of the top defensive pairings in the backcourt in the MWC. Of course it has been a disappointing campaign for the Rams and defense has not been their strong suit! The absence of Paige only exasperates the defensive shortcomings in the backcourt. CSU has allowed 93.3 points per game their last 4 games - all losses. However, they've also had the Aggies number and always tend to play them tough. They scored 84 at Utah State in January and the Rams enter this game having truly had just one bad game on the offensive end in their last 6 games. They struggled badly at home against Boise State. In their other 5 games since early February, Colorado State averaged 80 points per game! Utah State has averaged 73 points per game on the season and has guards Koby McEwen and Sam Merrill both listed as probable for this game. Those are the Aggies two leading scorers and will give the Rams backcourt a lot of match-up trouble. The over is 7-2 in Aggies tournament games and the over is 15-5 in Colorado State's games as an underdog this season. 10* OVER the total in Utah State |
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03-07-18 | Boston College v. NC State -3 | 91-87 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 12 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Game #578 Wednesday 8* NC State Wolfpack (-) vs Boston College Eagles @ 2:30 ET - The Eagles got the early win yesterday over Georgia Tech but the Yellow Jackets got plenty of good looks at the basket and open shots. The problem for GT was just an inability to knock down shots and Boston College won't have that same luxury against a Wolfpack team that averages 81 points a game. NC State was particularly hot over the last 5 weeks of the season. In their 9 games since the calendar turned to February North Carolina State shot a combined 50% from the field. The Wolfpack are not great defensively but, keep in mind, the Eagles just don't have the offensive firepower to keep up with NC State and they're will be some tired legs after yesterday's game. BC just doesn't have much of a bench. Yesterday they only got a total of 22 minutes from the bench. That means the 5 starters averaged about 36 of the 40 minutes! The Wolfpack will run Boston College right out of the building in this one. 8* NC STATE |
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03-07-18 | Louisville v. Florida State -118 | 82-74 | Loss | -118 | 4 h 14 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #576 Wednesday 8* Florida State Seminoles (-) vs Louisville Cardinals @ Noon ET - Admittedly I got burned badly by FSU when they got a miracle cover versus Boston College in a game in which the Seminoles were absolutely the wrong side all the way. No one had any business cashing a ticket with the Noles over the Eagles Saturday but, it happens, and the smart thing is not to let that cloud the judgement of a future selection. In this case I actually going with the team that just burned me as I really like the way they match up with the Cardinals. They split their season series with Louisville but Florida State is the much better rebounding team and that held true in both regular season meetings. Also, in those 4 halves of basketball the Noles only lost 1 half. It was their home game versus the Cards where FSU blew a huge 13 point halftime lead. The Seminoles haven't forgotten how they let that one get away and they're ready for Louisville here. FSU underachieved late in the season (even in their miracle cover versus BC Saturday) but the Noles are a very talented bunch that now views the ACC Tournament as a second chance scenario for them. This is FSU's chance to make some noise and make a run and play the type of basketball they were expected to play the entire season not just in the spurts they did early in the season. Look for the Seminoles to make the most of it. This line is as low as a pick'em and FSU is on a 12-4 ATS run when on a neutral court with a line ranging from pick'em to +3. The Cardinals are playing with home loss revenge but are 1-7 SU L8 in that situation. 8* FLORIDA STATE |
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03-06-18 | Hawks +13 v. Raptors | 90-106 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #505 Tuesday 8* Atlanta Hawks (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 7:05 ET - The Raptors have won all 3 meetings with the Hawks this season. Toronto truly not even worried about this game as a result. That, of course, is when dogs can be at their most dangerous and Atlanta has been scrappy on the road the past two months. They only have a 5-4 ATS record to show for it but note that the Hawks loss by 23 at Indiana in their most recent away game was the only road loss by more than 11 points that Atlanta has suffered in their past 9 games. The scrappy Hawks are getting 13 in this spot and the disinterested Raptors have what they view as a much tougher game (Pistons) on deck for tomorrow. Toronto is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games but only 1 of the 5 was a win by more than 13 points. Also, this is an odd stat to put a lot of weight into but yet it has been consistent and supports this play: Raptors 11-21 ATS in Tuesday games including 2-6 ATS this season. Atlanta is 14-8 ATS on Tuesdays in recent seasons including perfect 3-0 ATS this season. Hawks are also 10-6 ATS playing with home loss revenge this season. 8* ATLANTA |
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03-06-18 | Wake Forest +5 v. Syracuse | Top | 64-73 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #521 Tuesday 10* Top Play Wake Forest Demon Deacons (+) vs Syracuse Orange @ 7 ET - This line has gone from a -3 to a -5 on Syracuse as the markets feel the odds makers have made some type of egregious error by having the 19-12 Orange as only a 3 point favorite over an 11-19 Demon Deacons team. It's never that easy guys and the odds makers knew what they were doing with this one. Wake Forest plays Syracuse tough. The Demon Deacons are only 1-2 in the last 3 meetings but all 3 games were close ones and the Orange have really struggled to knock down shots this season. Syracuse is averaging 67.6 points per game on just 41.9% shooting this season. The Demon Deacons are hitting 38.2% of their threes this season while the Orange are hitting only 32.3% from three point land. While it is true that, on the season, Syracuse has the better numbers on defense than Wake Forest, the Demon Deacons finished up the season strong and allowed an average of just 39% from the field in their last 3 games. The Orange defense really struggled more as the season went on and, prior to allowing just 40% in their regular season finale, Syracuse had allowed 44% or more from the field in 6 of their previous 8 games. Look for the Orange to drop to 1-5 ATS on the season in games against teams with a losing record. 10* WAKE FOREST |
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03-06-18 | Pittsburgh v. Notre Dame OVER 133.5 | 64-67 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 33 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Game #519 Tuesday 8* OVER the total in Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Pittsburgh Panthers @ 2:30 ET - No one will want the over here based on the Panthers long-term O/U numbers this season. However, prior to their ugly loss at Notre Dame last week, Pittsburgh's most recent road game saw them score 75 points on 50% shooting at Florida State. The Panthers were a bit of an anomaly this season as they actually shot better on the road than at home. Certainly 40% shooting from the field is not a fantastic percentage but the fact is that, prior to the big performance versus the Seminoles, the Panthers did average 40% from the field in their 4 prior ACC road games and that included match-ups at Clemson and Miami in addition to Duke and North Carolina! As for the Fighting Irish, after a loss at Virginia Saturday (done in by suffocating Cavaliers defense), they'll be happy to exploit the subpar defense of the Panthers. The over is 3-1 in Pittsburgh's conference tournament games in recent seasons. The Fighting Irish went 11-4 to the over this season as a favorite. 8* OVER the total in Notre Dame |
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03-06-18 | Georgia Tech +4 v. Boston College | 77-87 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 26 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #517 Tuesday 8* Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+) vs Boston College Eagles @ Noon ET - After standing by to let the markets do their thing they've now driven this line all the way up from Boston College being about a pick'em all the way up to a 4 point favorite. It is now "go time" with Georgia Tech here! The Yellow Jackets are 12-4 ATS in March games and 3-0 ATS in first round tournament games. The Eagles are 1-8 ATS in tournament games. The Yellow Jackets also looking to avenge an 8 point loss at Boston College early last month where they were outscored by 16 points in the 2nd half. The difference is the game was the Eagles hitting 11 of 23 three-pointers and it is highly unlikely they do that here in a neutral court game. Grab the generous points here. 8* GEORGIA TECH |
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03-05-18 | Pistons v. Cavs OVER 218.5 | Top | 90-112 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
Divisional Total of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Game #701 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Cavaliers vs Detroit Pistons @ 7:05 ET - The Cavaliers are banged up in the frontcourt and won't be able to prevent Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond and other Pistons from plenty of scoring in the paint. On the other end of the court Cleveland will exploit Detroit's perimeter defense. The Pistons have had one good game defensively (held Milwaukee to 87 points) in their last 6 games. In the other 5 games Detroit gave up hot shooting from the outside and allowed an average of 113.4 points per game. Overall, the Pistons have allowed 105 points or more in 9 of their last 11 games. Of course the Cavs issues on defense have been well-documented this season and they're allowing 110 points per game on the season. In their last 7 home games, Cleveland has allowed 119.3 points per game. The Cavaliers lost at Detroit in late January and the over is 19-9 this season when Cleveland is playing with revenge this season. Also, when off of a game where they allowed 115 points or more, the Cavs are a long-term 33-16 to the over. The Pistons game at Miami stayed under the total by a bucket but, prior to that, the over was 4-1 in Detroit's last 5 road games and the lone under was by a half point. Look for another wild one between these two divisional foes as they go over for the 4th time in the last 5 meetings! 10* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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03-05-18 | Bowling Green +7.5 v. Central Michigan | Top | 77-81 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #715 Monday 10* Top Play Bowling Green Falcons (+) @ Central Michigan Chippewas @ 7:05 ET - I had my eyes on Bowling Green for their first round game in the MAC Tournament since they got blasted on their home floor by Buffalo in their regular season finale. Of course the Bulls are in a class of their own this season as they dominated the MAC East but the fact is that anytime a team gives up 100 on their home floor, especially in their final game of the season, you know they're going to be geared up for a bounce back performance in their next game. The fact that this game is on the road means extra line value for the home shading factored in plus the fact that odds makers had to over-adjust some after the Falcons got blasted. Bowling Green did lose at home to Central Michigan in their regular season match-up but the Falcons led the Chippewas at the half in that game. Also, Central Michigan just had to play on Saturday due to a shooting on campus that moved their game from Friday to Saturday and from on-campus to another location 30 miles away. While they did win that game the Chips are now on short rest and have gone just 2-4 ATS the last 6 times they've played with 1 day of rest or less between games. Central Michigan is also 2-4 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points and all 4 of those losses have been outright upset defeats! Another one wouldn't surprise here but I am grabbing the generous points with the Falcons. They are 5-0 SU and ATS this season when playing with home loss revenge. 10* BOWLING GREEN |
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03-04-18 | NC-Wilmington v. Hofstra OVER 161 | 93-88 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #833 Sunday 8* OVER the total in UNC Wilmington Seahawks vs Hofstra Pride @ 8:30 ET - Defensively these are two very weak teams as the Pride allowed 47.7% from the field this season and the Seahawks allowed 47.9% from the field. Offensively neither team is afraid to get in a shootout as they each average about 80 points per game. The over is 8-0 in UNC Wilmington's March games in recent seasons and also 5-0 when they are playing with 7 or more days of rest. In other words, don't be surprised if the Seahawks are pushing the tempo here with their fresh legs. The problem is that they allow 83.4 points per game on average too! As for Hofstra, they are 9-1 to the over this season when facing a team that allows 77 points or more per game. The point is that the odds makers adjust the lines higher against poor defensive teams but they still haven't gotten it high enough most of the time. With the added value of this total already coming down a couple ticks this morning I'll gladly step in on the over in this one as I just don't expect much, if any, defense in this one! 8* OVER the total in UNC Wilmington |
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03-04-18 | 76ers -119 v. Bucks | 110-118 | Loss | -119 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #809 Sunday 8* Philadelphia 76ers Money Line (-) @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 8:05 ET - The 76ers are 9-2 SU their last 11 games. They also have revenge against the Bucks as they lost at Milwaukee in late January. Payback time here for the hotter team as one of the two losses the Sixers had in the past few weeks was also by just a single point when they gave up a late big shot at Miami. In other words, Philly could easily be 10-1 their last 11 entering this game and the Bucks are certainly at the other end of the spectrum. Not only is Milwaukee 0-4 SU their last 4, they also are 1-6 ATS their last 7 games! Also, while the Bucks already dispatched of the Sixers 5 weeks ago, they do have a divisional revenge game on deck at Indiana tomorrow. It was the Pacers who just beat the Bucks in Milwaukee Friday. In other words look for the hotter team to also be the more focused team tonight and the result should be a comfortable road win. This line is so low that the money line on the 76ers is in the -120 range as of early gameday morning so I would certainly grab that if you have access to it. 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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03-04-18 | Suns v. Hawks -3 | 112-113 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 11 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #802 Sunday 8* Atlanta Hawks (-) vs Phoenix Suns @ 3:35 ET - The Hawks were leading the Suns by 10 points with under 3 minutes to go in the game in Phoenix in early January. Atlanta ended up losing that game by a single point. Suffice to say it is time for some payback here! The Hawks are 17-6 ATS in non-conference games this season. Also, Atlanta is at least a respectable 4-4 SU in their last 8 home games plus they're on a 5-2 ATS run their last 7 games overall. The Suns are on a horrific 2-16 SU run their last 18 games. Also, many of those losses were blowout losses for Phoenix and they're certainly facing a motivated Hawks team here. The home team is 6-0 SU in the last 6 meetings between these teams and with the low number on this game any SU Hawks win is highly like to be also be an ATS Win. Lay it! 8* ATLANTA |
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03-04-18 | Temple v. Tulsa OVER 141 | 58-76 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 48 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Game #821 Sunday 8* OVER the total in Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs Temple Owls @ 3 ET - The Owls game at Connecticut Wednesday stayed under the total but had no business doing so. The teams combined for 138 points even though Temple shot 36% from the field and the Huskies shot 36.8% from the field. The point is that the proper pacing was there for an over and yet the game still barely stayed under even with horrific shooting. This has led to line value here as this total is nearly the same number that the Owls prior game was and yet the Golden Hurricane are playing with road loss revenge from losing a tight one at Temple in mid-January. Tulsa is 4-2 to the over when playing with road loss revenge and also a long-term 22-9 to the over (including 7-3 this season) when they are entering a game off of a win in conference action. The Golden Hurricane are also 12-6 to the over when off of a game where they allowed 60 points or less. Tulsa's defense has looked good against poor teams but struggled against better teams. Hence a 7-2 mark to the over the last 9 times the Golden Hurricane have faced a team with a winning record. The Owls are a perfect 4-0 to the over when they are a road dog of 3 points or less. Also, this season, Temple is 3-0 to the over in road games with a posted total between 140 and 144.5 points. I'll gladly back the double perfect system here. 8* OVER the total in Tulsa |
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03-04-18 | Cincinnati +3 v. Wichita State | 62-61 | Win | 100 | 4 h 7 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #815 Sunday 8* Cincinnati Bearcats (+) @ Wichita State Shockers @ Noon ET - After opening up at a pick'em, this line has gone all the way up to a 3. Of course everyone is jumping on Wichita State at home and that is leading to great line value with the revenge-minded Bearcats. Cincinnati wants this game badly after losing to the Shockers at home two weeks ago. That loss ended a long home winning streak for the Bearcats and they're hungry to avenge that loss early Sunday. Cincinnati is allowing just 57.2 points and 36.9% from the field this season. Wichita State allowing 71.1 points and 41.7% from the field. Look for the edge on defense and the high motivation factor to lead to a road win for the revenge-minded team here. The Bearcats have a straight-up mark of 13-1, 93% when off of a win in conference action this season. 8* CINCINNATI |
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03-03-18 | North Carolina v. Duke OVER 161.5 | Top | 64-74 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #613 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Duke Blue Devils vs North Carolina Tar Heels @ 8:15 ET - Blue Devils games have stayed under the total in 5 straight but much of that has had to do with who they played. Now they face their biggest rival, North Carolina, and things are always a lot tougher on the Duke defense when it is the Tar Heels they are facing. UNC has averaged 85 points per game in it last 3 games versus the Blue Devils. Duke's offense also seems to go into overdrive mode when facing the Tar Heels as well. The Blue Devils have averaged 84.5 points per game in their last 4 meetings with North Carolina. You can see why I am expecting this one to end up with at least 170 and yet we're dealing with a total down closer to the 160 range which is why this is a top play for me. The over is 7-2 in the Tar Heels last 9 games. UNC has averaged 87 points per game during this 9 game stretch. The over is 4-1 this season when North Carolina is off of a loss in ACC action. Look for the over to improve to 10-5 this season when the Blue Devils face a team that is averaging 77 points or more per game. 10* OVER the total in Duke |
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03-03-18 | Pistons v. Heat OVER 204.5 | 96-105 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #505 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Miami Heat vs Detroit Pistons @ 7:35 ET - The over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between these teams. The Pistons are 4-1 to the over in their last 5 road games. Detroit has allowed 118.2 points per game in those 5 contests away from home and last night's result at Orlando was further evidence that the Pistons continue to leave their defense at home. Miami also comes into this game with concerns on the defensive end. The Heat have allowed over 100 points in 9 of their last 11 games. However, very quietly Miami's offense has continued to ramp up production as they've scored over 100 points in 9 of their last 10 games. The over is 8-2 in the last 10 games for the Heat. The over is 5-3 this season when Miami is off of an upset loss as a favorite. Also, the over is a long-term 15-9 when the Heat are off of a game where they allowed 115 points or more. In other words, look for them to answer the call with a bigger game on offense here and that should not be a problem against the porous road defense of the Pistons. Detroit is also 4-2 to the over this season when they are in the 2nd game of a back to back and that 2nd game is on the road. More of the same here. 8* OVER the total in Miami |
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03-03-18 | Nuggets v. Cavs -4.5 | Top | 126-117 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #504 Saturday 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (-) vs Denver Nuggets @ 7:35 ET - The Cavaliers have done so poorly ATS this season (particularly at home) that you know a turnaround is coming and we're also getting line value as a result. This line was around a half-dozen points but has already dropped to a 4.5 as of early gameday morning and this is offering great line value on a Cleveland team that will be hungry. After losing at home to the 76ers Thursday night, the Cavs need a bounce back game and they're catching Denver at the perfect time to take advantage. The Nuggets are off of a win at Memphis last night so Denver is in a back to back spot here. Also, speaking of ATS struggles, the Nuggets have failed to cover 4 in a row but this is not the spot to rectify the situation. Denver is 6-11 ATS this season in games with a posted total of 220 or more. Cleveland is 17-7 SU in home games with a posted total of 220 or more and 39-21 SU long-term when off of an upset loss as a favorite. With those solid SU stats and the fact that this line is down to a 4.5 I feel very comfortable about an ATS win here as the Cavs are fired up to get back on track! 10* CLEVELAND |
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03-03-18 | Notre Dame v. Virginia -9 | Top | 57-62 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 0 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NCAAB Game #564 Saturday 10* Top Play Virginia Cavaliers (-) vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ 4 ET - Here is what people are talking about: Virginia is off of a miraculous last second win at Louisville. Notre Dame has Bonzie Colson back. Here what people are not talking about: The Cavaliers were knocked out of the ACC Tournament last spring by the Fighting Irish. It was the first time that Notre Dame had beaten the Cavaliers since joining the ACC. Also, Colson was good but not great in his first game back and that was against a very bad Pittsburgh team. So here is the takeaway: there is tremendous line value here with the Cavaliers in their home finale. They have revenge on their minds after what happened in the ACC Tourney last year. To put that game in proper perspective, the Cavaliers haven't allowed that many points (71) this entire season. The Cavs defense is going to bring their "A game" here. The Irish are smart enough to know this not a game to push Colson too hard in. They need him for the upcoming tournament games not for this one final regular season games. For the Cavaliers they are a very hard-working team and they want to send the seniors off the right way in their final home game. They'll be able to dominate defensively and the Cavaliers offensive production this season is much better than last year. Of course this is a big reason they're now the #1 ranked team in the nation and they're not getting the respect they should here. I'll gladly step in and take advantage. Notre Dame is just 4-8 ATS their last 12 games. The Cavaliers win at Louisville was a non-covering win and the Cavs haven't had 2 straight ATS losses this entire season. In other words, an ATS win for the home team as they avenge last season's loss. 10* VIRGINIA |
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03-03-18 | Boston College +8 v. Florida State | 76-85 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Game #545 Saturday 8* Boston College Eagles (+) @ Florida State Seminoles @ 2 ET - The Eagles beat the Seminoles earlier this season at Boston College. As a result, the Seminoles will be seeking revenge here. However, BC lost at Florida State by 32 points here last February and were knocked out of the ACC Tournament in a 22-point loss the prior year. In other words, Boston College still has some unfinished business in terms of dealing with FSU. The Eagles are off of a dominating home win versus Syracuse and only lost by a single point (for an easy cover) at Miami in their most recent road game. A recent 23-point blowout road win at Pittsburgh (as well as that gritty performance against the Hurricanes) gives the Eagles plenty of confidence heading to Florida State. Simply put, the Noles have been a disappointment as this season has gone on. They've now lost 4 of their last 6 games and Boston College can actually finish with a higher seeding in the ACC tournament than FSU by getting the upset win today. Florida State is on an 0-6 ATS run and though the Seminoles are a very lengthy team on defense they've still been giving up high shooting percentages and big points. Florida State has allowed 81.2 points per game their last 5 games! FSU is 3-8 ATS when they enter a game on an ATS losing streak of 3 or more games. The Eagles are 10-6 ATS in conference games this season. 8* BOSTON COLLEGE |
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