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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-06-21 | 76ers v. Bulls -3.5 | Top | 114-105 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
PA Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Chicago Bulls -3.5 vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 8:10 ET - Revenge game for Bulls. Yes they lost at Philly on Wednesday but it was because of sub-par shooting. It was absolutely a winnable game and I do not see them being denied in this game after they outrebounded the Sixers by a big margin but were outscored by 18 points from 3-point land. That was the difference in the game and the Bulls get some payback as the 76ers continue to deal with injury and quarantine issues and Embiid's knee is certainly nowhere near 100 percent right now either. 10* CHICAGO -3.5 |
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11-05-21 | Knicks v. Bucks OVER 217 | Top | 113-98 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Friday 10* Top Play OVER 217 in Milwaukee Bucks vs New York Knicks @ 7:35 ET - Bucks have been struggling to score in last two home games but I look for a breakout game on offense here as they make up for it in a big way. Milwaukee just scored 117 on road and carry that momentum into a much needed strong performance at home. I am aware of the injury situation but they should get Jrue Holiday back for this one as well. Knicks off low scoring loss at Pacers but were averaging 115 points per game before that and should bounce back here with plenty of offense. Over had been 5-2 in Knicks games and that trending resumes here. 10* OVER 217 in Milwaukee |
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11-04-21 | 76ers v. Pistons OVER 206.5 | Top | 109-98 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
PA Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 206.5 in Detroit Pistons vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 7:10 ET - Sixers in a back to back so could be a little flat defensively here after holding the Bulls under 100 last night. Also, Embiid may not play since it is a back to back. That means the Philly defensive middle could be impacted. I know Pistons not a good team but they allow a ton of points. Detroit has allowed 114 points per game last 5 games. So you can see if Philly wins by close to the line of -6 that would put this game at about 114-108 if Pistons continue to allow the average points they have been. The over is 6-1 L7 meetings including 4-0 L4 at Little Caesars Arena. More of the same here. 10* OVER 206.5 in Detroit |
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11-03-21 | Knicks v. Pacers -110 | Top | 98-111 | Win | 100 | 5 h 28 m | Show |
Early Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Indiana Pacers -110 vs New York Knicks @ 7:10 ET - Pacers are favored over Knicks even though Indiana is 2-6 SU this season and New York is 5-2. Big mistake by the odds makers right? Of course not! A big key here is that, after missing 3 games, Malcolm Brogdon will be back for Indiana tonight. He has big numbers for the Pacers early this season but has been out. Also Indiana is at home for this one and coming off a big win by a double digit margin. The Pacers needed a win and got it and now they get Brogdon back tonight. Though New York is 5-2 this season 3 of their 5 wins have come against teams that are a combined 5-18 on the season! The Pacers have double revenge here from two tight losses to the Knicks in their last two meetings. As for the Knicks, they could get caught looking ahead to their next game as they face the NBA Champion Bucks in Milwaukee on Friday. As for Indiana, they have a west coast road trip starting Friday so this game is ultra-important for them. I do not see them being denied. 10* INDIANA -110 |
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11-01-21 | Blazers +2.5 v. 76ers | Top | 103-113 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
PA Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #535 Monday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers +2.5 @ Philadelphia 76ers @ 7:10 ET - I liked this situation a ton even before Joel Embiid was set to rest but now with the 76ers big man expected to miss this game I especially like the underdog in this one. The Trail Blazers have been much better with Norman Powell in the lineup and they had won 2 of his 3 games by big margins before losing at Charlotte on Saturday. However, in that defeat the Hornets simply shot a ridiculous 48% from three point land and that was the difference in the game. Now Portland bounces back off that loss and note the Blazers are 3-0 SU and ATS in their last 3 games against Philly. Also, the Trail Blazers had won 3 of 4 (all by 19 or more points) before the loss at Charlotte. They also are catching Philly off huge revenge win over the Hawks as Atlanta had knocked the 76ers out of the playoffs last season. Set ups just do not get much better than this and now, with Embiid set to rest, this easily gets my highest rating. 10* PORTLAND +2.5 |
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10-31-21 | Jazz v. Bucks OVER 224.5 | Top | 107-95 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
NBA TV Blowout - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #527 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 224.5 in Milwaukee Bucks vs Utah Jazz @ 7:10 ET - I am aware that a few guys are out right now for the Bucks but I love the over in this match-up Sunday. Both teams are off low-scoring upset losses yesterday in which they were held under 100 points. Look for the focus for each team to be on the offensive end in this one after those dismal shooting performances. Note that last season's two meetings between these teams each flew over the total and the over is on a 16-7 run in last 23 meetings between these clubs in Milwaukee. The Bucks had allowed 117.5 points per game last 4 games prior to allowing just 102 to what is not a very good team, Spurs, yesterday. The Jazz are going to have a huge scoring effort here but note also that Utah has some impressive defensive numbers this season but now faces its toughest test yet this season. A road game in a back to back and facing the defending NBA champs. Look for a rather loosely played, wide-open non-conference match-up here and that means a lot of open looks and uncontested shots and easy buckets. I expect a very good pace to this game just like the two meetings last season and those each totaled 244 or more. 10* OVER 224.5 in Milwaukee |
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10-30-21 | Hawks v. 76ers -3 | Top | 94-122 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
PA Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #510 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers -2.5 vs Atlanta Hawks @ 7:40 ET - Though Joel Embiid is listed as questionable again with knee soreness, the big man has yet to miss a game for the Sixers this season. I certainly do not see him missing this one either as it is a huge revenge game for Philly. While one definitely does not want to just blindly play revenge, the fact is that the favored 76ers will want this game badly after losing in the playoffs to the Hawks last season in June. Note that the home team is 5-0 ATS in Atlanta's games this season and I look for that trend to continue here as Philly is known for being tough on their home floor. 76ers off a non-covering win versus Detroit in most recent game and that is keeping this line lower than it should be. Lay the small number and look for a big home win in this one as the road teams drops to 0-6 ATS in Hawks games on the season! 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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10-29-21 | Magic v. Raptors OVER 205 | Top | 109-110 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #561 Friday 10* Top Play OVER 205 in Toronto Raptors vs Orlando Magic vs 7:10 ET - The Magic, despite being very short-handed, continue to go over the total in their games. Part of the reason for this is that Orlando's defense has been very poor early this season. The Magic are allowing 115 points per game and are allowing high percentages from the field including from 3-point land. That said, if they give up 115 here but lose the game by 8 points as the posted spread is suggesting, that would put this total in the 222 range but we are working with an O/U that is much lower than that. I will take it because I believe the Raptors may not have their best defensive intensity for this game either. Toronto is off a home win versus the Pacers and they have a game on deck at Indiana tomorrow. The Raptors have allowed 105 points last 3 games. The Magic have scored 110 points or more in 2 of last 3 games. I know this game could be a bit ugly but still I feel this total is just too low given the situation. Orlando also is in the front end of a back to back as well and the over is 3-0 in last 3 meetings between these teams. More of the same expected here. 10* OVER 205 in Toronto |
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10-28-21 | Pistons v. 76ers OVER 212 | Top | 102-110 | Push | 0 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
NBA TV Blowout - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #549 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 212 in Philadelphia 76ers vs Detroit Pistons @ 7:10 ET - This total has dropped a lot because Jerami Grant is questionable for the Pistons and Joel Embiid is questionable for the 76ers. Keep in mind, when Grant did not play the last game, Kelly Olynyk moved into the starting five. Olynyk had a huge game and it flew over the total. Speaking of overs, the over is a perfect 6-0 in last 6 games between these teams. The Sixers have a big game with Atlanta on deck. Philly could easily look right past a Pistons team that is winless on the season. Additionally, if Embiid does not play that leave a gaping hole in the Sixers interior defense. Everyone always looks at points scored when guys are out but Embiid also matters on defense. That said, even if he does play he has not been moving that well. I look for this one to have plenty of scoring from both teams as Detroit faced a bad Bulls team in B2B games to open up the season and then finally faced a challenge with the Hawks and gave up 122. The Sixers will score plenty here too but note that they have allowed 110 points per game last 3 games and the line here is around a -10. That said, 120 to 110 sounds about right not me and that means the over improves to 7-0 in last 7 meetings between 76ers and Pistons. 10* OVER 212 in Philadelphia |
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10-27-21 | Hornets -5.5 v. Magic | Top | 120-111 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
Early Punisher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #529 Wednesday 10* Top Play Charlotte Hornets -5.5 @ Orlando Magic @ 7:10 ET - The Magic are still without a number of key players to begin this season. Not only is Orlando off to a tough 1-3 start to the season, the Magic have lost all 3 games by at least 17 points apiece and an average margin of defeat of 23 points! That said, it comes as no surprise that I like the Hornets to cover this rather short number that is in the range of a half-dozen points. Charlotte is off a home loss in OT versus Boston so they will be hungry to bounce back here as they had started the season 3-0 SU. I just don't see the short-handed Magic as being able to score enough to avoid a loss by a double-digit margin here. Keep in mind, Orlando is averaging only 98 points per game this season! The Hornets, not including OT, are averaging 120 points per game this season! Each of Charlotte's two road games this season resulted in wins by double digits. I fully expect this one will as well as the Hornets roll big on the road. 10* CHARLOTTE -5.5 |
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10-26-21 | Lakers -4 v. Spurs | Top | 125-121 | Push | 0 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #525 Tuesday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Lakers -4.5 @ San Antonio Spurs @ 8:40 ET - The Lakers should be fully focused here as they lost at home to the Spurs in most recent meeting. Los Angeles is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in last 4 meetings at San Antonio and the lone non-covering win was a win by 6 points which, as you can see from today's line, would get us the cash here. That said, I am laying the points here with the Lakers as LeBron James is on the injury report but I do expect him to play. Either way, I like LA here as the Spurs are not going to be a very good team this season. They lost too many key players and are rebuilding right now with young players. Also, the Spurs only SU win was over a Magic team missing a ton of their regulars. I know Lakers started slow this season and also are 0-3 ATS but I look for them to build off their first SU win of the season with another one here and I expect them to cover the small number here in the process. 10* LOS ANGELES LAKERS -4.5 |
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10-25-21 | Celtics v. Hornets OVER 223.5 | Top | 140-129 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #503 Monday 10* Top Play OVER 223.5 in Charlotte Hornets vs Boston Celtics @ 7:10 ET - Both teams in 2nd game of back to back. Both teams off wins in which they allowed less than 100 points. Historically I like overs a lot in situations like this and I expect some tired legs on the defensive end after giving big efforts to get low-scoring wins yesterday. Adding to the value here is that Jaylen Brown should be back after he missed yesterday's game. It was merely precautionary and Boston only wanted him to play one game of the back to back so this is it. Look for more of a run and gun type of game here after yesterday's grinders for each team. Both teams gave up plenty of points in their first two games this season so one should not over-react to yesterday's surprising results. 10* OVER 223.5 in Charlotte |
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10-23-21 | Bucks -6 v. Spurs | Top | 121-111 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks -6 @ San Antonio Spurs @ 8:40 ET - The Bucks just got absolutely destroyed at Miami. That means this is a bounce back spot for Milwaukee and they should have Jrue Holiday back for this one. Yes they are not 100% percent healthy yet for sure but that it is a big plus for them here to get Holiday back. While the Bucks also were off yesterday, the Spurs were at Denver. San Antonio coming off a game in high altitude where they expended a lot of energy. The Spurs in 2nd game of tough back to back and yes they did win their only home game so far but that was much better situation and they faced a bad Magic team missing a ton of starters. This situation is much different and features a very strong, and angry, Bucks team that is rested and in bounce back mode! 10* MILWAUKEE -6 |
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10-22-21 | Nets -3 v. 76ers | Top | 114-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
PA Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Friday 10* Top Play Brooklyn Nets -3 @ Philadelphia 76ers @ 7:40 ET - The Ben Simmons saga rolls on in Philly. A lot of pressure on Tobias Harris here as the Sixers are in the process of parting ways with Simmons plus Joel Embiid is now questionable for tonight's game with knee issues. That makes this a fantastic situation because Philadelphia is off a blowout win in their first game but it was against a bad Pelicans team while Brooklyn is off a blowout loss in their first game but they faced the defending champion Bucks. Not only off a loss at Milwaukee but also with an extra day of rest between games compared to Philly. The Nets also have double revenge here from losing their last two meetings with the Sixers last season. The road team is favored with good reason here! Lay it! 10* BROOKLYN -3 |
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10-21-21 | Mavs +2.5 v. Hawks | Top | 87-113 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
TNT Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Dallas Mavericks +2.5 @ Atlanta Hawks @ 7:40 ET - The Hawks are at home and had a decent record last season. That is leading to solid line value with the road dog in this one. Keep in mind, Atlanta was barely above .500 against Western Conference teams last season. Conversely, Dallas was 21-9 against Eastern Conference teams last season and that included 2-0 versus the Hawks. I still feel strongly that there exists an East-West dichotomy in the NBA and, until we see this dynamic change, there is always a bit of shading toward the West in my mind when it comes to East-West match-ups. That said, when I can get the team from the West on the road and getting points then I pay particularly close attention. Looking at this match-up, the Hawks also are a bit banged up while the Mavs appear healthy entering this one. I do expect an outright upset but will gladly grab the points as added insurance in this one. 10* DALLAS +2.5 |
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10-20-21 | 76ers -3 v. Pelicans | Top | 117-97 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
PA Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ New Orleans Pelicans @ 8:10 ET - The Sixers are eager to prove that life will go on without Ben Simmons. They want to put that entire nonsense behind them and press ahead. Joel Embiid and company will dominate here as the Pelicans are without Zion Williamson to open up the season. I know Brandon Ingram is going to play for New Orleans here but he was bothered by his knee as the preseason went on. Of course Williamson and Ingram are two key players for New Orleans. As for the 76ers being without Simmons, he honestly had become more of a distraction than anything else and hurt them in the post-season with his reluctance to take shots. Look for Embiid and Tobias Harris to help lead the way to a dominating road win here as the 76ers get payback for a loss here the last time these teams met at New Orleans. 10* PHILADELPHIA -3 |
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07-20-21 | Suns +180 v. Bucks | Top | 98-105 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 27 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #511 Tuesday 10* Top Play Phoenix Suns Money Line +180 @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 9:05 ET - The Suns have lost 3 straight games. Phoenix is 3-0 this year when entering a road game on a losing streak of 2 or more games. The Suns did not lose 4 straight games in the regular season and I do not see this happening in the post-season either. Yes we could grab the points here but the strong post-season trend of the points not mattering in almost every single game continues here in my opinion. Outright Suns win. Phoenix shot the ball extremely well in the Game 5 loss and they also were much better with the ball (finally) and did not lose the turnover battle after 3 straight games in which they did. They will call this a shocking upset but really it will not be. Remember Milwaukee went just 16-14 against the West this season. Phoenix went 21-9 against the East this season. The Suns also had the best road record in the NBA this season with a 24-12 mark. I love the huge dog value we are getting here in a must win spot for the road team. Looking forward to Game 7. Indeed I am confident we will see one! 10* PHOENIX +180 |
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07-17-21 | Bucks +148 v. Suns | Top | 123-119 | Win | 148 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher ML - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #509 Saturday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks Money Line +150 @ Phoenix Suns @ 9:05 ET - The Suns had it in their grasp. It was all theirs for the taking. Then they went to Milwaukee and let it slip away. Yes I know there are still games to be played but I now have major concerns about this Phoenix team. Losing Game 3 was understandable. Not bouncing back though and winning Game 4 was unacceptable. The Suns were supposed to be the better team. They had looked like the better team. But now check out some of these numbers as Phoenix has just not been the same team since the Game One win. The Bucks had 97 shots from the field in Game 4. The Suns had 78. Are you kidding me? An NBA Championship caliber team is off a loss and that is how they perform. How about turnovers? The last 3 games the Suns have more turnovers in every single came and this has accumulated to a total of 43 to 23 during this stretch. That means Phoenix has nearly twice as many turnovers! Milwaukee also has 29 more free throw attempts than the Suns in the last 3 games combined. Again, as they saying goes, the game is not played on paper but when you look at these stats in black and white it is very clear that the Bucks could (should?) have won each of the last 3 games and have a 3-1 lead in the series. In fact, one could argue that the only reason Phoenix won Game 2 is they had twenty 3-pointers made compared to just 9 for the Bucks! Will the Suns again make 20 of 40 three pointers in this home game? I highly doubt it! Finally, for the first time in this series, the road team not only covers the game but they get the outright win! Give me the plus money in this one. 10* MILWAUKEE +150 |
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07-14-21 | Suns +157 v. Bucks | Top | 103-109 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 11 m | Show |
Money Line Shocker - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #507 Wednesday 10* Top Play Phoenix Suns Money Line +157 @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 9 ET - Giannis had 17 free throw attempts for the Bucks Sunday while Phoenix only had 16 shots from the charity stripe. The Suns Devin Booker averaged 29 points in the first two games but then was a miserable 3 of 14 from the field in Game 3. Those two unusual stat variations will NOT be repeated Wednesday and I love the fact that the Suns, since late January, have gone 15-3 SU when off a loss. No points needed here. The Suns win outright and avoid the pressure of heading home with this series knotted at 2 games apiece. Unlike Milwaukee, Phoenix has shown the ability to win consistently on the road in this post-season. I do not see them losing two straight games. The Suns respond in a big way here and the extra time off between games benefited them as it took away some of the Bucks momentum. 10* PHOENIX Money Line +157 |
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07-11-21 | Suns +168 v. Bucks | Top | 100-120 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 34 m | Show |
Money Line Finals Game of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #505 Sunday 10* Top Play Phoenix Suns Money Line +170 @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 8:05 ET - The normal reaction is to expect the Bucks to bounce back on their home floor and get a win. Conventional wisdom says that will happen. In typical contrarian fashion though I love to buck conventional wisdom. I know the NBA would love to have a longer series but this is not looking good for the Bucks. What people are forgetting is how Milwaukee got to this point. They beat a Heat team and a Hawks team that play in the weak Southeast Division. They also beat a Nets team that dealt with significant injuries to 2/3 of its Big Three with both Harden and Irving dealing with injuries in that series. I just do not think the Bucks are in the same class as the Suns. They were down double digits entering the 4th quarter of each game in Phoenix. I know Milwaukee is a better team when at home but do you realize that the Suns have won 13 of 15 games including 6 of 7 on the road? Championship teams win on the road. The Bucks? They have lost 6 of last 9 road games and one of the three wins was in OT. I know...I know...Milwaukee is at home here but you get my point...the best teams know how to win on the road and that is a Championship-caliber team. All the pressure here is on the Bucks. They are down 2-0 in this series and, unlike when they faced the Nets in this same situation two rounds ago, the Suns are 100% healthy. By the way Milwaukee scored only 86 points in that game 3 win. Now they face a healthy Phoenix team. Also, the Suns have scored an average of 122 points in their last 3 games including 130 in most recent road game. I am going contrarian here and playing the loose and relaxed team that is playing with confidence and no pressure. No points needed. Upset time. Give me the big plus money return. 10* PHOENIX +170 |
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07-08-21 | Bucks +189 v. Suns | Top | 108-118 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 40 m | Show |
Money Line Mauling - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #503 Thursday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks Money Line +190 @ Phoenix Suns @ 9:05 ET - The Bucks are a perfect 4-0 SU the last 4 times they were off a loss. Milwaukee has played great defense after a game in which they tasted defeat as the Bucks allowed 91 points or less in 3 of those 4 victories. I expect a very strong effort from a hungry Milwaukee team and note that the Suns had alternated wins and losses in their 5 games prior to the victory to open up this series. The Bucks were outscored by 16 points at the free throw line in Game 1 but otherwise won the game by 3 points. There is great value here in my opinion. I know we could take the points at +5.5 as added insurance but as we have seen throughout this post-season, there have hardly been any games where the point-spread has matter. Since late May, as an example, the SU winner has also been the ATS winner in 14 of 15 Bucks games and 13 of 14 Suns games. I will grab the big plus money here. 10* MILWAUKEE +190 |
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07-06-21 | Bucks v. Suns -6 | Top | 105-118 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #502 Tuesday 10* Top Play Phoenix Suns (-) vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 9:05 ET -Â Giannis Antetokounmpo is doubtful for this game. The line still may look a little steep to most considering the Bucks have been winning some games without him. However, in typical contrarian fashion, I am on the other side of that thinking. I look for Phoenix to win this game by double digits. This is the toughest team the Bucks have faced in the post-season and they are on the road and they are not at full strength and likely without their best player. Blowout home win in the forecast here to get the finals underway. Suns on 10-3 ATS run. Milwaukee off a rare road win and cover and had been on 2-4 ATS run in road games. 10* PHOENIX |
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07-03-21 | Bucks v. Hawks -2.5 | Top | 118-107 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #562 Saturday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks (-) vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 8:35 ET - Giannis is more likely to miss this game than Trae Young. I just can't see Young missing a win or go home game while Giannis has the luxury of knowing there would still be a Game 7 at home in Milwaukee he can rest up for if the Bucks lose this game. Subconsciously, the Bucks could have a letdown here. They rallied the troops in the first game without Giannis on Thursday but I just don't see them again shooting 50 percent from the field without him like they did in Game 5. That said, regardless of who plays, I like the Hawks to get a big win here at home in Game 6. They did win Game 4 convincingly here without Young and even before Giannis got hurt in the 3rd quarter of that game, the Bucks were down by double digits for most of that game. Milwaukee has lost 4 of last 6 road games. The home team has won 4 of last 6 games between these teams and the Hawks held the Bucks to 39% from the field and 20% three pointers the last time these teams met in Atlanta. The home team, after being embarrassed at Milwaukee in Game 5, will respond big here in Game 6 regardless of who is on the floor. But, in that regard, the odds favor that it will be Young coming back for this one and not Giannis. Either way, the play here is the home team in a blowout. 10* ATLANTA |
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07-01-21 | Hawks +126 v. Bucks | Top | 112-123 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #541 Thursday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks Money Line +125 @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 8:35 ET - Highly doubtful that Giannis Antetokounmpo will play here and the news gets even worse. The Bucks had him up until he got hurt about 5 minutes into the 3rd quarter. Even with him they were down 10 points at that point in the game AND the Hawks were playing without Trae Young. The fact that there is a decent chance Young will be back tonight really makes this situation tough on Milwaukee. This is particularly true because Cam Reddish is now back for Atlanta and playing well also. The Hawks now have a ton of confidence, are the healthier team, and this line is VERY small on the Bucks at home for a reason. The odds makers are enticing the betting public with the idea of taking a traditionally great home team, Milwaukee, at a number as low as -2 this morning. In my opinion the sharps will be on the Hawks here and the public will be on the Bucks at home. That said, give me the Atlanta money line as we have just not seen many games at all in this post-season where the spread has mattered so I will grab some plus money with the Hawks to win SU. Look for Atlanta to continue their ultra impressive playoff run. The Hawks got embarrassed in their last game here at Milwaukee but this followed 3 straight road wins and they will get payback after being completely obliterated in Game 2 of this series. 10* ATLANTA +125 |
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06-30-21 | Suns +1 v. Clippers | Top | 130-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #531 Wednesday 10* Top Play Phoenix Suns (+) @ Los Angeles Clippers @ 9 ET - As you know, I am not fond of laying big juice or big points and, that said, this the perfect spot to take Phoenix to finish this series off. Since the Suns are on the road, we get great line value here with this line right around a pick'em and even available at +1 for Phoenix in some spots this morning. The Suns had won 10 of 11 prior to Monday's loss and I look for them to improve to 3-0 the last 3 times they were on the road and coming off a loss. The Clippers made 54.8% of their shots from the field and I certainly do not expect that to be repeated. In fact, LA made just 32.5% of their shots in the last game here. Considering that as well as the Suns being fired up off a loss and Los Angeles still without Kawhi Leonard, look for this series to end tonight. 10* PHOENIX +1 |
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06-29-21 | Bucks v. Hawks +7 | Top | 88-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
Money Line Mauling - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #522 Tuesday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks Money Line +230 vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 8:30 ET - Of course you can grab the Hawks at +7 if you prefer but I am grabbing the money line. I am glad we won with the Clippers last night as a plus points underdog but still kicking myself for not using their big plus money line like I did on Atlanta in Game 1 of this series when they won outright at nearly +300 odds. The fact is that the Hawks are off back to back losses now and they are 5-1 SU the last 6 times they have entered a game off consecutive losses. We are getting extra line value here because of the Trae Young injury situation but I would be shocked if he did not play and/or was not effective. Either way though I expect a huge response from the Hawks here and certainly do not expect the Bucks to shoot better than 50% from the field for a 3rd consecutive game either. Milwaukee has a solid home record but Atlanta's home record even better. Also, the Hawks were the better team for the first 3 quarters of Sunday's loss before blowing the game in the 4th quarter as they were flustered by the Young injury situation. That will not impact them here as it known he has a bone bruise and he and the Hawks rally the troops for this one. 10* ATLANTA Money Line +230 |
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06-28-21 | Clippers +5.5 v. Suns | Top | 116-102 | Win | 100 | 15 h 33 m | Show |
Western Conf Finals Game of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #511 Monday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Clippers (+) @ Phoenix Suns @ 9:05 ET - This series has featured tight games and I am expecting another one here. The Clippers lone win was by 14 points but their 3 losses were by a total of only 11 points! That said, we have some value with the 5.5 points being offered here as the Suns, despite going against an LA team playing without Kawhi Leonard, has struggled to put them away in each game. Phoenix has made just 20 of 78 three pointers in the last 3 games in this series and that included one at home of course. The Clippers actually have shot better at Phoenix from downtown in this series as they have made 33 of 81 three pointers in the 2 games played here. That said, don't be surprised if Los Angeles finds away to stay alive in this series with an upset win here in Game 5. However, if LA does fall short, look for the points to be enough for the all-important cover in this one. 10* LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS |
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06-27-21 | Bucks v. Hawks +165 | Top | 113-102 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
Money Line Mauling - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #502 Sunday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks Money Line +165 vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 8:35 ET - The Hawks did not just lose at Milwaukee in Game 2, they got absolutely annihilated in an embarrassing defeat at the hands of the Bucks. That said, the set up here is ideal as Atlanta is back at home and in response mode. Remember that, entering March, the Hawks were just 14-20 on the season. That means they wrapped up the regular season on a 27-11 run. In fact, when at home off a loss, Atlanta is 7-1 the last 8 times. Just like I did in Game 1 when we cashed with the big dog Hawks on the money line at nearly a 3 to 1 payback, I am shunning the points again for the bigger payout with the money line. The ATS winner has also been the SU winner in 12 of last 13 Bucks games. The ATS winner has also been the SU winner in 13 straight Atlanta games. The point is that if you like the Hawks to get the cover here, the odds strongly favor that you play the money line for the bigger payout as any ATS win also likely to be a SU win. This has actually been a strong pattern throughout this post-season in nearly all the series. More of the same here and I look for the hosts to improve to 8-1 SU the last 9 times they were at home off a loss. 10* ATLANTA money line +165 |
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06-26-21 | Suns v. Clippers OVER 218.5 | Top | 84-80 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #591 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Clippers vs Phoenix Suns @ 9:05 ET - Back to back unders in this series. The only time in this post-season that the Clippers have been at home following back to back unders, the game flew over the total. The only two times that the Suns have been on the road following a streak of 2 or more consecutive unders, each time the game flew over the total. That is a combined 3-0 over trend for these teams that is perfect in this post-season and that I expect to remain perfect here as well. Phoenix, off a loss, will be more aggressive in game 4 and should get more free throw attempts as a result. In Chris Paul's second game back, I expect improvement. Also, the Suns will certainly shoot better than the 39% they shot in game 3 from the field. I certainly don't see them continuing the poor outside shooting that has seen them hit just 16 of 58 threes in the last two games. Phoenix will be much better but LA is on their home floor and looking to even this series up and I see more of a high-scoring game like we saw in Game 1 as a result of the situation and the fact we have got Suns off a loss here. 10* OVER the total in Los Angeles Clippers |
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06-25-21 | Hawks +8 v. Bucks | Top | 91-125 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
East Conf Finals Game of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #581 Friday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks (+) @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 8:35 ET - Bad news for the Bucks here. The Hawks Bogdan Bogdanovic scored just 2 points on only 1 of 6 shooting in Game One as he was bothered by a sore knee and Atlanta still won the game outright. That said, I am grabbing the points here in Game Two for the same reasons I took the Hawks to win Wednesday's game outright as a +$300 money line dog. The only reason I am grabbing the points here is I would not be surprised to see the Bucks find a way to get a SU win here but I certainly don't see them getting that win by any kind of sizable margin. As mentioned in Wednesday's write-up, the Hawks are just feeling it right now and are playing with no playoff pressure on them. The Bucks, conversely, have a ton of pressure on them because of high expectations coupled with recent post-season disappointments. The loose and relaxed team is the Hawks and that makes for a very dangerous underdog. Atlanta is 6-2 SU on the road in the playoffs and they enter this game on an overall 4-1 SU run with the only loss in that stretch coming by just 5 points. The Bucks last 7 games have resulted in 3 SU losses and only 2 of the 4 SU wins for Milwaukee were by more than 4 points. You can see the value in having the points on your side with numbers like this and you know the Bucks will be geared up to not drop a 2nd consecutive home game. But again, this Hawks team is simply incredibly resilient and Trae Young right now is playing at another level that is simply phenomenal. 10* ATLANTA |
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06-24-21 | Suns v. Clippers OVER 221 | Top | 92-106 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #571 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Clippers vs Phoenix Suns @ 9:05 ET - I think we can all agree on one thing when it comes to the odds makers and that is...they do a damn good job of making the numbers on a daily basis. That said, the line on this game being in the pick'em range is likely "spot on" in terms of this being a tight game that could go either way late in the final minutes as we have seen with so many of these games in this post-season. That said, I feel we have excellent line value here with this total. The Suns are getting Chris Paul back tonight to lead this offense. Phoenix is buoyed by a 2-0 series lead here and winning Game 2 on a last-season shot. However, even with Kawhi Leonard still out for the Clippers, LA is certainly not going to just lay down here. That said, I am fully expecting a high-scoring game here as the Suns, with Paul back, will push the pace here and look to run the Clippers right out of the building. Keep in mind, Phoenix is on a 9-game winning streak. In the 7 games preceding the tight low-scoring win in Game 2, the Suns had averaged 119 points per game. No, none of those games went to OT either. That said, a 119-118 final here certainly would not be a complete shock and yet this total is in the 221 range. I feel we have a lot of good value in this low number because let us also not forget that Kawhi Leonard is a 2-time NBA Defensive Player of the Year. His absence is absolutely impactful to this D and now they face a healthy Suns team again with Paul coming back. This is going to lead to some extra scoring in my opinion as Phoenix pushes the pace but the Clippers come up big at home too. 10* OVER the total in LA Clippers |
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06-23-21 | Hawks +8.5 v. Bucks | Top | 116-113 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
Money Line Mauling - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #561 Wednesday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks Money Line +300 @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 8:35 ET - The Bucks beat a Nets team that was a giant mess. Kyrie Irving got hurt during series. James Harden was hurt for the key early part of the series and had no rhythm with his shooting when he came back. So basically Milwaukee beat a Brooklyn team that for much of the series was a shell of the team it should be. That does not mean the Bucks are not a rock solid team as they truly are one of the best teams in the league. But I feel strongly they are in for some "shock value" when they face Atlanta here. Yes I know the Hawks are a little banged up right now but they are not dealing with major injury issues like the Nets were. That said, Atlanta comes into this series having defeated a high-quality 76ers team that had their stars on the floor. The Hawks have plenty of momentum on their side and a confidence and a swagger that are both keys to winning on the road. Atlanta gets down double digits in a game that is still not a problem as they have shown throughout this post-season. But I actually expect the Hawks to get a great early jump on Milwaukee in this game and to play from ahead for much of the way. Trae Young is the Hawks superstar and he only played in ONE of the three games against Milwaukee in the regular season because of injuries during the year and he shot an uncharacteristic 3 of 17 in that one game. So Young essentially did nothing against the Bucks in the entire regular season series and yet Atlanta still went 1-2 in the 3 games. Also, the Hawks are on a 4-1 SU run in road games. The ATS winner has been the SU winner in 9 of Milwaukee's last 10 games. In other words, whoever you like ATS here you can certainly also feel confident about in terms of a SU win too and I am going for the big payback here. Grab the money line on the Hawks as they are rolling with confidence right now and are a cohesive group unlike the wounded and broken Nets team that the Bucks just played. 10* ATLANTA +300 |
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06-22-21 | Clippers v. Suns -5 | Top | 103-104 | Loss | -106 | 15 h 9 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #552 Tuesday 10* Phoenix Suns (-) vs Los Angeles Clippers @ 9:05 ET - Per the zig zag theory, the Clippers are the play here since they lost Game 1. However, in typical contrarian fashion, I am on the Suns here but it certainly is not without reason. I know Phoenix is still without Paul but the Clippers still being without Leonard is an even bigger factor. Also, I love the fact that the Suns won and covered the first game despite LA having nearly twice as many free throw attempts PLUS the fact that the Clippers outscored the Suns by 21 points from the 3-point line! Yes Los Angeles hit 20 threes compared to 13 threes for Phoenix and yet they still lost the game by half a dozen points! Keep in mind, the Suns are allowing only 100 points per game last 6 home games. The Clippers have allowed 115 points last 4 road games and are missing a key defender with the aforementioned absence of Kawhi. The Suns have won 8 games in a row and all have been by 6 or more points. Look for this one to fall into that category as well! 10* PHOENIX |
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06-20-21 | Clippers v. Suns OVER 221.5 | Top | 114-120 | Win | 100 | 6 h 6 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #535 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 221.5 in Phoenix Suns vs Los Angeles Clippers @ 3:35 ET - Kawhi Leonard out for the Clippers. Chris Paul out for the Suns. These are two key absences for Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. So what will happen here? Others will step up with them absent. Also, let's not forget about the impact on defense without guys like that on the floor. It changes multiple aspects. That said, people often just tend to look at points scored per game when looking at the absences of key personnel but truly they impact defense, defensive rotations, etc. as well. That said, with the Suns 3-2 to the over last 5 and Clippers 4-1 to the over last 5, I like the over in this match-up! The last two match-ups stayed under the total but had 116 and 110 points, respectively, at the half of each game and should have gone over. Each of the two meetings prior to that this season did go over the total. We're getting some line value here in my opinion as a result of all of the above. 10* OVER the total in Phoenix |
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06-19-21 | Bucks +2 v. Nets | Top | 115-111 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #521 Saturday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (+) @ Brooklyn Nets @ 8:35 ET - Normally I would suggest playing the money line here but at the time of this write-up at 8 AM ET on gameday morning, the money is only +110 but the spread is +2 and that gives enough value to grab the point spread in my opinion. Why I am looking for a Milwaukee win here? As long-time followers know I am a contrarian. These teams have met 9 times this season. 3 times in the regular season and 6 times in this playoff series. The home team has won all 9 games. Then the oddsmakers opened up the Bucks as 1.5 point road favorites here. The betting markets of course are saying the oddsmakers do not know what they are doing and the line has moved 3.5 points to where it is now Brooklyn that is a 2-point favorite. Keep in mind, the Nets are without Kyrie Irving and to me the Bucks sure look like the hungrier team. They are playing with a lot of intensity and passion right now. I know Brooklyn will dig deeper at home in this Game 7 but the hungrier team and healthier team will not be denied in Game 7 no matter the venue. The Bucks did a great job in the rebounding department and in terms of getting to the free throw line in Game 6 and they will do the same here and get the road win. 10* MILWAUKEE |
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06-18-21 | 76ers -3 v. Hawks | Top | 104-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
2nd Round Game of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #511 Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Atlanta Hawks @ 7:35 ET - The Sixers led by 18 going to the 4th quarter Wednesday and lost. They led by 13 at the half in Atlanta Monday and lost. After blowing back to back games the 76ers are in trouble as the Hawks are in the drivers seat now. However, Philadelphia knows that with one win tonight, the Sixers can force a Game 7 which would be in Philly. I do not see them being denied in that quest. Someone, or even a few players (the star talent is there) will step up for the 76ers in the fourth quarter of this game. This team should have a "going for the kill" mentality throughout the entirety of this game. The following is an excerpt from what I mentioned in a write-up earlier in this series on Philadelphia when they took a 2-1 series lead by winning Game 3 at Atlanta: "The Hawks played in a much weaker division this season than Philadelphia did. Note that Philly played in a tough Atlantic Division but still went 10-2 in the division. Also, the 76ers went 13-2 against the weak Southeast Division. The Hawks record was helped by the fact they went 9-3 in their own division. Against the Atlantic Division, Atlanta had a losing record at 7-8." All of that still holds true here and now you have the 76ers very angry after back to back losses and they are on the road so that is keeping this game at a very playable number - currently in the -3 range. Lay it! 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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06-17-21 | Nets +188 v. Bucks | Top | 89-104 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
Money Lin Mauling - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #501 Thursday 10* Top Play Brooklyn Nets Money Line +190 @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 8:35 ET - This play is very similar in thinking to my successful money line play on the Nets in Tuesday's game. The very first line to come out on this game was a 3.5 which means the game is expected to be quite tight. Yet, the line then moved the way of the Bucks to force it up into the -6 range and so the money line has also moved accordingly. So now we can get Brooklyn as a big money line dog even though the original point spread arrived at by the odds makers was telling us this should be a very close game. Couple that with the fact that so often in these playoffs - almost without fail - the team that has won SU has also won ATS. We have seen very few games where a team wins SU but does not also win ATS. Long-term, dating back to the regular season, the Bucks have been following this trend too. Here we get a chance to take a team at nearly 2 to 1 plus money odds and we're taking a team that has won 12 of 15 games! Yes Kyrie Irving is again out but James Harden will surely be much better tonight in his 2nd game back after being nothing short of awful on Tuesday. The Nets still won that game despite his struggles and that says a lot. Now I know this game is at Milwaukee of course but with Harden playing much better tonight and the Nets having swung momentum back in their favor, I am sensing a big upset win tonight. 10* BROOKLYN +190 |
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06-16-21 | Hawks v. 76ers -6 | Top | 109-106 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #582 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Atlanta Hawks @ 7:30 ET - The following is an excerpt from what I mentioned in a write-up earlier in this series on Philadelphia when they took a 2-1 series lead by winning Game 3 at Atlanta: "The Hawks played in a much weaker division this season than Philadelphia did. Note that Philly played in a tough Atlantic Division but still went 10-2 in the division. Also, the 76ers went 13-2 against the weak Southeast Division. The Hawks record was helped by the fact they went 9-3 in their own division. Against the Atlantic Division, Atlanta had a losing record at 7-8." All of that still holds true here and now you have Philly, after blowing a big lead in Game 4, all of the sudden knotted at 2 games apiece in this series but back home where they are known for dominating. The 76ers have one of the best combined home records in recent seasons among any of the teams in the league. Now of course we not only need the Sixers to win this game but also cover the spread. To put your mind at ease about this but, not sure if you have noticed in this post-season, the spread has hardly ever mattered. There have been very few games where the SU winner was not also the ATS winner. That trend dates back to the regular season in 76ers games to as only 1 of their last 14 games has seen the SU winner not also be the ATS winner. Look for the home team to get right back on track here and win this one in a blowout by a double digit margin. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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06-15-21 | Bucks v. Nets +175 | Top | 108-114 | Win | 175 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
Money Line Mauling - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #572 Tuesday 10* Top Play Brooklyn Nets Money Line +175 vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 8:30 ET - The odds makers knew James Harden and Kyrie Irving were not expected to play when they opened up this line at a -2 for Bucks. That line is indicating a very tight game of course and it is never shocking to see a +2 underdog win outright. That said, now that the markets have said the odds makers are clueless about doing their job and have caused this line to rise all the way to a -5 on Milwaukee, I am jumping in on the other side with Brooklyn. However, on the basis the odds makers are indeed quite sharp, I am not even taking the points, I will grab the big money line - range of +175 as of 9 AM ET - with the Nets in this one. This one has value, home court edge, coaching edge, and a hungry Nets team ready to prove the naysayers wrong after what happened in Game 4 at Milwaukee once Irving got hurt. These are still professionals that surround the lone remaining star, Kevin Durant, and watch them step up and help produce a "shocking" win over the Bucks. Per the odds makers original line, that should not be a shock at all but it will be to the betting markets and the masses after this insane line movement. In contrarian fashion I am calling for the upset here. 10* BROOKLYN Money Line +175 |
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06-14-21 | 76ers v. Hawks UNDER 226 | Top | 100-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #562 Monday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Atlanta Hawks vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 7:35 ET - I just do not see these teams again combining for an unusually high 71 free throw attempts again like they did in Game 3. I also do not expect the torrid shooting of the Sixers to continue on the road. It was very surprising that they did make 48% of their three pointers and 58% from the field overall Friday at Atlanta. The Hawks, now down 2-1 in this series, have to come out strong here but they have averaged only 106.5 points per game last two games. So, the point is, you have Atlanta buckling down a bit for a crucial Game 4 but also having struggled a bit to get big points. Look for a solid under here as, despite 3 of the last 4 meetings between these teams resulting in an over, the odds makers have held firm in the mid-220s range with this one for a reason! The point is this game will surprise many by being a bit more of a grinder. 10* UNDER the total in Atlanta |
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06-13-21 | Suns v. Nuggets +140 | Top | 125-118 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
Money Line Mauling - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #554 Sunday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets Money Line +140 vs Phoenix Suns @ 8:05 ET - I do not see the Nuggets being swept. No points needed as Denver avoids the embarrassment of a Game 4 loss on their home floor as that is no way to get swept out of the playoffs. The Nuggets actually had 14 more shots from the floor than the Suns did in Game 3 but lost the game by double digits because Phoenix shot very well and Denver struggled to make shots. From beyond the arc, the Nuggets shot about 12 percentage points less than the Suns and the same was true from the field overall. That said the play here is on the home team to win outright. Denver had won 4 of last 5 home games versus Suns prior to that loss. In fact, heading into this series, the Nuggets had won 9 off 11 SU overall versus Phoenix. Of course being without Jamal Murray is hurting them but they entered this series on a 7-3 SU run overall and, as hot as the Suns have been, Phoenix was just 4-4 SU last 8 road games prior to the Game 3 win Friday. Again, that victory was a fortunate one for the Suns in terms of much better shooting. Give them credit for the win of course but the Nuggets won some key hustle stat battles like offensive rebounds as an example and this team will not quit! 10* DENVER Money Line +140 |
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06-13-21 | Nets v. Bucks OVER 228 | Top | 96-107 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 0 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #551 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Bucks vs Brooklyn Nets @ 3 ET - After the horrific shooting in Game 3 there will be a turnaround in Game 4 for both teams. I know this series has been all unders so far but it does not make sense based on the pace of the games. That said, good pace again here plus much better shooting. I trust the Nets to bounce back and score much better here after the loss in Game 3. Also, the Bucks are known for shooting much better on their home floor and I fully expect that here after the unreal scoring result Thursday. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
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06-12-21 | Jazz +175 v. Clippers | Top | 106-132 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
Money Line Mauling - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #541 Saturday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz Money Line +175 @ Los Angeles Clippers @ 8:35 ET - The Clippers are at home and down 2-0 in this series and so automatically they must win this game, right? That is the common thinking of course but, as we all know from experience, common thinking is not what you want to have to make money long-term in sports betting and I see this spot as an excellent value spot for grabbing the Jazz. Note that Utah is on a 4-0 SU run on the road while the Clippers are on a 1-4 SU run in home games! Yet everyone will remember Los Angeles winning Game 7 of their series with Dallas in LA but forget they lost 4 straight home games preceding that. Of course this is why we get fantastic line value in this spot. Prior to that Game 7 win over the Mavericks, the road team in Clippers games had actually prevailed as the SU winner in 6 straight games and 9 of 11 games. How many times are you going to get a great team like Utah - on a 6-game winning streak and winners in 8 of 9 - at a +175 price? Exactly! I certainly respect the Clippers but feel the Jazz are the better team in this series and I look for them to continue to prove that with an upset win in Game 3 to take a stranglehold on this series as they shock the masses tonight. Note from June 4th to tonight this will be the 5th game for the Clippers while the Jazz enter this game having played only twice since their June 2nd series-clinching win over Memphis. The road team is also the team with the fresher legs in this one. 10* UTAH +175 |
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06-11-21 | Suns v. Nuggets OVER 222.5 | Top | 116-102 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #533 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Denver Nuggets vs Phoenix Suns @ 10:05 ET - The Nuggets are known for being much tougher to play against when at home and they show a strong tendency to score much better when on their home floor. After back to back frustrating performances on offense on the road in this series, I fully expect Denver to bounce back with a strong effort here and put up big points. They will need it because the Suns have been on fire offensively and that is why the over is on a 10-2 run in Phoenix road games. Prior to Game 2 of this series staying under the total, games between these teams were on an 8-4 run to the over and I look for that trend to quickly resume tonight. The Nuggets respond on their home floor but the Suns continue their red hot scoring trend away from home. 10* OVER the total in Denver |
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06-11-21 | 76ers -116 v. Hawks | Top | 127-111 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #531 Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers Money Line -115 @ Atlanta Hawks @ 7:35 ET - With the Sixers available at a -1 -110 on the spread I am going to suggest laying an extra 5 cents and grabbing them on the money line at -115 in this one. I know Atlanta has a good home record but here is something interesting to note. The Hawks played in a much weaker division this season than Philadelphia did. Note that Philly played in a tough Atlantic Division but still went 10-2 in the division. Also, the 76ers went 13-2 against the weak Southeast Division. The Hawks record was helped by the fact they went 9-3 in their own division. Against the Atlantic Division, Atlanta had a losing record at 7-8. The point is that the value here because this game is at Atlanta and we can take Philly just to win the game is too much to pass up on in my opinion. I am going with the better team on the road to avoid falling into a 2-1 series deficit here. Big game and having an extra day off between games - these teams last played Tuesday - also favors the road team with Embiid getting extra rest for his knee. The big man is capable of dominating any game and has already produced huge numbers in this series and will come up big here in my opinion. 10* PHILADELPHIA money line -115 |
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06-10-21 | Nets v. Bucks -3.5 | Top | 83-86 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #522 Thursday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks -3.5 vs Brooklyn Nets @ 7:30 ET - So far in this series, excluding 3 pointers, the Bucks have outscored the Nets by 19 points. That is crazy to think about, right? But it is true and it is even more crazy considering Brooklyn has been without James Harden. He is going to miss tonight's game too and I feel strongly that this is where it will catch up with the Nets. They are on the road facing an angry Milwaukee team and I expect a huge effort from the Bucks as Brooklyn's 3-point shooting finally settles back down from astronomical levels! In the regular season the Nets were only 20-16 SU in road games while the Bucks were 26-10 SU in home games. The home team has won and covered all 5 meetings between these teams this year and I look for that trend to continue tonight as the Bucks finally put forth a very strong effort and Brooklyn's ridiculously hot outside shooting finally cools. 10* MILWAUKEE |
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06-09-21 | Nuggets +200 v. Suns | Top | 98-123 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
Money Line Mauling - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #511 Wednesday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets Money Line +200 @ Phoenix Suns @ 9:30 ET - If you like Denver to cover in this game, and I definitely had this one circled after the Game 1 result, you may as well take a look at getting +200 on the money line. Why? Well, the ATS winner in the Nuggets last 10 games has also been the SU winner in all 10 games. In other words, the points have not mattered. In fact, dating back to May 1st, Denver has played 16 games and only 1 of the 16 was one in which the SU winner was not also the ATS winner. That was when the Nuggets won a game SU but lost ATS (they were favored by 6 and won by 5). Of course that is impossible to happen here as Denver is the dog so a SU win will be an ATS win. That said, why I am anticipating a SU win here? Well the Nuggets had won 5 of last 6 games played at Phoenix prior to Monday's loss. Also, Denver is 12-3 SU the last 15 times when off a SU loss. The Suns are 1-3 SU the last 4 times they have entered a game on a SU winning streak of 4 or more games. Phoenix is not going to shoot 54% from field again nor have a 17-5 edge in free throws either! Upset alert! 10* DENVER Money Line +200 |
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06-08-21 | Clippers v. Jazz -4 | 109-112 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #504 Tuesday 8* Utah Jazz (-) vs Los Angeles Clippers @ 10:05 ET - The Jazz have won 11 of 14 straight up and have a huge rest edge here. They have not played since June 2nd while the Clippers have played twice since then. Before those two wins for Los Angeles over Dallas to wrap up a 7-game series win, LA had lost 5 of 7 both SU and ATS. All 11 of Utah's wins in their 11-3 SU run have come by a margin of 7 or more points and I fully expect this one will too! Rest edge and home court edge will be huge and the Clippers could be fatigued in the thin air of Utah after that 7-game battle with the Mavericks took everything they had to advance. 8* UTAH |
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06-08-21 | Hawks v. 76ers -5.5 | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #502 Tuesday 8* Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Atlanta Hawks @ 7:30 ET - The 76ers will respond off the Game 1 loss. The Sixers had won 10 in a row at home prior to that loss. 9 of the 10 wins came by 7 or more points. The Hawks made twice as many three pointers in the game as Atlanta knocked down 20 from beyond the arc while Philadelphia made just 10. That is a 30-point variance from downtown and yet the Hawks only won the game by 4 points even with that 30 point edge beyond the arc. You get my point. Sixers roll by double digits. 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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06-07-21 | Bucks +2 v. Nets | Top | 86-125 | Loss | -121 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
TNT Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #581 Monday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (+) @ Brooklyn Nets @ 7:35 ET - The Nets are without James Harden but he went out in the first minute of Game One with a hamstring injury and yet Brooklyn still ended up building a huge lead and winning the game by 8 points. That said, the Bucks are in real trouble here, right? Actually I expect them to be able to make some solid adjustments now since they know Harden is out. Also the reason they lost Game One was they made only 6 of 30 from downtown while Brooklyn made 15 of 40 from beyond the arc. When you get outscored by 27 points from three point land you actually should lose the game by a lot more than 8 points. In other words, there were some things to like in the Game One performance for Milwaukee. The Bucks were the better rebounding time and did a better job of getting to the free throw line than did the Nets. That said, I will take the road team in anticipation of a big bounce back win here in Game Two. 10* MILWAUKEE |
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06-06-21 | Mavs +6.5 v. Clippers | Top | 111-126 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #573 Sunday 10* Top Play Dallas Mavericks (+) @ Los Angeles Clippers @ 3:35 ET - Too much line value to pass up on here in my opinion. The road team not only has covered all 6 games in this series they have won each game outright. That said, grabbing the Mavericks on the money line here is in a 6-0 / 100% perfect SU situation. But we can add insurance to our play by grabbing the points being offered with Dallas. The Mavs are currently a 6.5 dog in this one as of early game day morning and that is a big value. 3 of the 6 games in this series have been decided by single digit margins - an average of 6 points per game - and this should be another tight one here. I do expect the road team trend to continue but will grab the points as added insurance with this one. 10* DALLAS +6.5 |
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06-05-21 | Bucks +160 v. Nets | Top | 107-115 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
Money Line Mauling - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #561 Saturday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks Money Line +160 @ Brooklyn Nets @ 7:35 ET - The three games this season between these teams were all close games but having the points on your side did no good. The one time the dog won they won outright. The two times the favorite won they covered the small spread. That said, I like Milwaukee here and I will take them on the money line given the above. Keep in mind, the Bucks are the much more rested team here as they swept the Heat in the first round. Milwaukee has won 12 of last 14 games overall dating back to the regular season and that includes a 2-0 against the Nets in early May. I realize those games were at Milwaukee and that Brooklyn's Big Three is now healthy. However, the Bucks match up very well with the Nets and are offering a lot of line value here. I like looking for upsets in Game One of a series especially with a high quality team like the Bucks that is still very hungry after getting knocked out of the post-season last year and missing their shot to try to win it all. 10* MILWAUKEE Money Line +160 |
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06-04-21 | Clippers v. Mavs +127 | Top | 104-97 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
Money Line Mauling - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #558 Friday Top Play Dallas Mavericks Money Line +127 vs Los Angeles Clippers @ 9:05 ET - The road team is 5-0 in this series but I see that trend ending tonight as the Mavericks end the Clippers season. Last year in August in the post-season bubble, the Clippers entered a Game 6 with the Mavericks as the designated home team. Los Angeles got the win and ended their season. Now Dallas gets playoff payback for that the very next season and returns the favor with a Game 6 win tonight. The Mavericks are off a win in Game 5 and they have not had a standalone win since mid-April. In other words, when Dallas enters a game on a winning "streak" of 1 game they have won the next game each of the last 5 times and that includes when they won Game 2 of this series at LA after also beating the Clippers there in Game 1. Los Angeles enters this game on a 5-11 ATS run. Also, LA is on a 6-9 SU run. The Mavericks are the hotter team with runs of 12-5 SU and 8-5 ATS. No points needed here as each of the last ten games between these teams have been decided by 5 or more points. That said, rather than grabbing the 2.5 points here, the better value play is the money line. 10* DALLAS +127 |
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06-03-21 | Suns +2 v. Lakers | Top | 113-100 | Win | 100 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #543 Thursday 10* Top Play Phoenix Suns (+) @ Los Angeles Lakers @ 10:35 ET - Looking at this series and looking at Anthony Davis, you can see how there is a clear relationship. Davis had a sub-par game one and the Suns won that game. Angry and motivated, Davis and the Lakers bounced back with big performances in each of the next two games. Then, still dealing with some lingering injury issues Davis was not the same guy in Game 4 and then got another injury - groin - that knocked him out of the game. However, even before the new injury, you could see Davis was not the same guy. Why does this matter? Well, the Suns went on to win Game 4 after he exited and, again, he was not himself for the 1/2 game worth of minutes he was out there. Then, without him in Game 5, the Lakers got blasted. Now, even if he comes back in Game 6, Davis is dealing with multiple injury issues. That said, I see the Lakers as "without Davis" no matter what in this game. He was not the same player in Game 4 even before he got hurt. He was playing hurt already. Now dealing with a multiple-injury situation, Davis will not be capable of a dominating performance here and, as we have seen throughout this season, Davis is the key to this team NOT LeBron James! With all of the above said, I expect the Suns to take advantage of this situation and end this series tonight. I will grab the bucket just in case they fall just short but I do expect an outright win here. 10* PHOENIX +2 |
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06-02-21 | Hawks v. Knicks -115 | Top | 103-89 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
Money Line Game of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #532 Wednesday 10* Top Play New York Knicks Money Line -115 vs Atlanta Hawks @ 7:35 ET - The home team is 3-0 SU last 3 games in this series. Long-term it is a 5-1 SU run for the home team in match-ups between these teams. The Knicks lost both games at Atlanta but, prior to that, New York had won 5 of the last 6 meetings between these teams. I like the fact that the big difference in the last two games was the Hawks making more threes than the Knicks. With this game back in New York, the Knicks are likely to again even up that part of the equation. That said, better three point shooting from New York and rock solid defense from the hosts in an elimination game setting should lead to a comfortable home win in this one. The Knicks are 10-3-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings between these teams. 10* NEW YORK KNICKS -115 |
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06-01-21 | Celtics +12.5 v. Nets | Top | 109-123 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #521 Tuesday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics (+) @ Brooklyn Nets @ 7:35 ET - Just too many points in my opinion. When you look at the box score from Game 4 of this series you see that the Nets made a ridiculously high percentage of 3-pointers and also just a ridiculously high percentage of shots overall. The Celtics actually had more field goal attempts and free throw attempts in the game and yet ended up on the wrong end of a blowout loss. I am not saying that Boston will not again lose this game but I am saying that they will not lose it by a double digit margin. We are currently getting 12.5 points in this one and I expect the Celtics, playing for their season here, to stay within single digits against Brooklyn. I am aware of the injury situation for Boston and that this is not the same Celtics team we have seen in recent playoff years but this is still too many points in my opinion and I just do not see the road dog being put down here without a helluva fight. Grab the big points. 10* BOSTON |
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05-31-21 | 76ers v. Wizards +8.5 | Top | 114-122 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #512 Monday 10* Top Play Washington Wizards (+) vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 7:05 ET - The markets are on Philly in this one so waiting to game day morning paid off some in terms of additional line value here as this one is now up to an 8.5 and I am expecting the Wizards to play a strong game. You know Washington does not want to get swept out of the playoffs by losing this one on their home floor. Of course being motivated is not reason enough to win a game but I expect a hard-fought battle here and at least a cover in this one. Washington actually did find a way to cover Game 1 of this series and in the past two games they have combined for 13 more shot attempts to the Sixers. How did they lose both so badly? Well, the Wizards are a ridiculous 10 of 57 from three point land the past two games while the 76ers are an equally ridiculous (the other way) 26 of 54 from three point land. Neither one of these statistical variances is likely to continue into a third straight game and that means value here with the big dog as I expect the gap of the last two games between these two teams to be closed in a big way. The home dog will not go down without a very strong effort and I see that leading to at least a cover in this one! 10* WASHINGTON +8.5 |
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05-30-21 | Suns +6.5 v. Lakers | Top | 100-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #503 Sunday 10* Top Play Phoenix Suns (+) @ Los Angeles Lakers @ 3:35 ET - I have heard that Anthony Davis will play no matter what but could his sprained knee limit him a little bit here? Either way, the fact is the Suns are going to come out strong here after losing back to back games. Phoenix needs to be stronger on the boards and they know they can ill afford falling into a 3-1 hole in this series so I look for the Suns to play their best game of the series thus far. Maybe that still does not avoid the 3-1 series deficit but it should at least get us the cash here as they stay inside the number on this one. There were 3 times in the regular season in which the Suns entered a game off consecutive losses in which at least one of the losses was a road defeat. In all 3 instances, Phoenix won that game and I am expecting that record to reach a perfect 4-0 today but will grab the points as added insurance in this one. The Lakers are off back to back covers but this was on the heels of a 4-13 ATS stretch. It has been a very long time since Los Angeles has covered 3 straight and I do not expect that to change here either as LA falls short of the cover in this one. Look for the Suns to be very active defensively and extra aggressive on the boards in this one and I am expecting them to play a much more complete game after falling short in back to back games. 10* PHOENIX |
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05-29-21 | 76ers v. Wizards OVER 227.5 | Top | 132-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #575 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Wizards vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 7:05 ET - Russell Westbrook (questionable) or not, I do not expect the Wizards to again shoot 2 of 22 from three point land in this one! Washington will be much better in the offensive end at home but they can not stop Philadelphia. The 76ers have averaged 128 points per game in their last 4 against the Wizards. However, it is the wounded dog that bites the hardest (as the saying goes) and I fully expect Washington to hang around in this game which means they will have to score plenty of points to do so. The over was 3-0 in the Sixers last 3 games prior to the Game 2 match-up between these teams staying under the total. Also, the Wizards have scored an average of 130 points per game in their last 3 home games. Look for a very entertaining match-up in this one with plenty of points and that is whether Westbrook plays or not as Philly is known as being a team whose defense often does not "travel well"! 10* OVER the total in Washington |
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05-28-21 | Knicks v. Hawks OVER 211 | Top | 94-105 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
1st Round Total of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #561 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Hawks vs New York Knicks @ 7:05 ET - The Hawks are sure to respond at home off an ugly loss at New York in Game Two. However, New York has scored 55 points and 57 points, respectively, in the 2nd half of each of the first two games. So the Knicks might surprise and put up quite a fight in the 2nd half here but I expect the revenge-minded Hawks to put up a ton of points on their home floor. Atlanta has won 11 straight home games and has scored an average of 120 points per game in those 11 consecutive victories! The Knicks are known for solid defense and holding game scores down but I still feel that the 211 range this total is posted in will prove to be far too low. New York's last 6 meetings with Atlanta, prior to Game Two staying under the total, had produced 5 overs and just 1 under. Look for this high-scoring trend to resume here as the Hawks respond well at home but have trouble putting the Knicks away in the 2nd half. The spread in the range of a -4 seems about right given the way I handicap this game but I feel this total will prove to be far too low. The 6 preceding meetings, including 1 under in the bunch all totaled 212 or more and the last 5 regular season meetings had average halftime point totals of 124. With this being the post-season the totals have been adjusted down but I know how the Hawks want to play this game on their home floor and we should get a solid over here. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta |
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05-27-21 | Bucks v. Heat +2 | Top | 113-84 | Loss | -112 | 15 h 48 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #552 Thursday 10* Top Play Miami Heat (+) vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 7:35 ET - The Heat got blasted on Monday by 32 points but were outscored by 42 points from three point land! It was just "one of those games" where the Bucks were making everything and the Heat were cold from beyond the arc. Miami actually had 35 free throw attempts compared to just 20 for Milwaukee. The Heat will be much better here after dropping the first two games of this series in Wisconsin. Miami lost Game One by only a 2-point margin. Now they are a home dog of a bucket here in a must win game. I like the Heat to get back on track in a big way here. Miami had covered 13 of 17 before the ugly loss in Game 2. Also, the Bucks had failed to cover 7 of 8 before getting that blowout win. Payback time for the Heat as they get back into the series with a key win Thursday. 10* MIAMI |
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05-26-21 | Wizards v. 76ers -8 | Top | 95-120 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
1st round Game of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #542 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Washington Wizards @ 7:05 ET - In game one, the Wizards shot 56% from the field and 40% from three point land so your next question would be, okay how many points did Washington win by? Exactly...and yet the Wizards did not even win the game and barely covered as they lost by 7 points to stay just inside the number. The point of all this? Washington is in huge trouble if they can shoot like that and yet still not win the game. The Wizards had the better shooting numbers both inside and outside the 3-point line and yet still lost the game by nearly a double digit margin. That said, with the Sixers fully aware they need to D up even stronger, Philly wins this game by more than a dozen points in my opinion. The extra rest is another edge for the 76ers here as it is a key for Embiid to stay as healthy as possible and they are at home again and game one was on Sunday so two full off days in between. This is a big edge for Philly. Ride the home team to a cover here as the home team in 76ers games was on a 12-3 ATS run prior to their non-covering home win Sunday. That 80% run makes sense as Philly is known for struggling on the road but dominating as a host. Look for home domination in this one. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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05-25-21 | Celtics +9.5 v. Nets | Top | 108-130 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #531 Tuesday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics (+) @ Brooklyn Nets @ 7:35 ET - Yes the Nets covered Game 1 but the Celtics actually led by 6 points at the half. The teams ended up taking an equal amount of shots but poor overall shooting for Boston cost them the game and the cover. I expect Brooklyn will shoot better from three point land here and fully understand they are do for a bounce back in that regard. However, the Nets are going to see some adjustments from the Celtics who are known for making good game to game adjustments. I know it has not been the same Boston team we have seen in the past but they are well-coached and will be ready to go here and I simply do not see them losing this game by a double digit margin. I know Brooklyn has been hot but the Celtics had covered 3 straight prior to that loss and I feel the Nets are over-priced here. Market is favoring the home favorite and, in typical contrarian fashion, I am going the other way! 10* BOSTON |
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05-24-21 | Heat v. Bucks OVER 222.5 | Top | 98-132 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #521 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat @ 7:35 ET - With Game One staying under the total by a good margin, we have seen a line move for Game Two. The result is excellent line value with the over because the pace was absolutely there for an over in Game One. The problems included the Heat making just 16 of 49 shots inside the the arc, the Bucks making just 5 of 31 shots from outside the arc, and Milwaukee making just 60% of their free throws. All of these are very unusual statistics and, with a return to normalcy in Game Two, look for this game to feature enough scoring to go over a number that has been adjusted downward for this one! Entering that game Miami road games were on an 8-2 run to the over. Look for that trending to resume in this one! 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
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05-23-21 | Lakers v. Suns -2.5 | Top | 90-99 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
Pacific Div Game of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #514 Sunday 10* Top Play Phoenix Suns (-) vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 3:35 ET - Granted they would have another chance to make the post-season by facing Memphis but that does not change the fact the Lakers were fortunate to get past the Warriors in their play-in match-up. LA barely beat Golden State and I am well aware that the Lakers now have a winning streak going but 4 of their last 6 wins in the streak were against teams that did not end up making the playoffs. Now Los Angeles faces a major challenge here. Yes they beat Phoenix earlier this month but the Suns had won the prior two meetings this season by double digits. Also, this match-up is in Phoenix where the Suns went 27-9. This line has dropped from a 3 to a 2.5 and I feel we have fantastic line value here with the small home favorite. The Suns had a week off to rest up for this game and are healthy. With the Lakers now having Anthony Davis and James back on the floor again they are getting a lot of love from the betting markets but this is a very strong Suns team that has the rest edge and is on their home floor. Lay the small number. 10* PHOENIX |
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05-22-21 | Mavs +5.5 v. Clippers | Top | 113-103 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #509 Saturday 10* Top Play Dallas Mavericks (+) @ Los Angeles Clippers @ 4:35 ET - The Mavericks lost their regular season finale but how important was that game? Exactly! That said, it is playoff time now and Dallas entered that final game having won 12 of 15 games! The Mavs are out for revenge here from last year's playoff ouster at the hands of the Clippers. You can expect a very strong effort here as a result. I like the fact that Los Angeles is on a 3-8 ATS skid and I feel they are overvalued here with the line move from 4.5 now up to a 5.5 as of early game day morning. The Mavericks won 2 of the 3 meetings between these teams in the regular season and have plenty of confidence entering this post-season rematch. That makes for a very dangerous dog here. Give me the points! 10* DALLAS |
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05-21-21 | Grizzlies +175 v. Warriors | Top | 117-112 | Win | 175 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
Money Line Mauling - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #579 Friday 10* Top Play Memphis Grizzlies +175 @ Golden State Warriors @ 9:05 ET - The Grizzlies lost at Golden State Sunday but actually had 9 more shot attempts from the field. So what happened? Memphis made just 6 of 25 three pointers while the Warriors made 15 of 39 three pointers. Considering GS outscored the Grizz by 27 points from beyond the arc, it is a minor miracle that the game was decided by "only" a dozen points. That said, I feel we have some good value with the underdog here and feel that we are finally going to see an outright upset in this play-in tourney. So far the favorite has won every single game SU and though not all were ATS wins and I can not believe we will go all the way through this play-in tourney without a single upset. Look for the better defensive team (at least the team playing better defense of late for sure) in this match-up to get the outright win! Look for the Grizzlies team to take advantage of a Warriors team that let one slip away against the Lakers Wednesday night. Memphis off a momentum-boosting win over the Spurs that was a game featuring long stretches of dominance. The Grizzlies off a win while Golden State off a missed opportunity versus Los Angeles sets this one up well for an upset as the Warriors are feeling all the pressure here. 10* MEMPHIS Money Line +175 |
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05-20-21 | Pacers +134 v. Wizards | Top | 115-142 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
Money Line Mauling - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #575 Thursday 10* Top Play Indiana Pacers Money Line +135 @ Washington Wizards @ 8:05 ET - Incredibly all 4 hosts have won each of the play-in games SU even though the lines were rather small spreads on all games. I see that ending here. The Pacers looked great against the Hornets Tuesday and that helps them bring a ton of confidence and swagger into this game. The fact Washington won all 3 games in the regular season against Indiana actually only makes me like this one even more. It is a contrarian play all the way but, think about what the public will likely be doing here. They see all the home teams winning, they see the Wizards 3-0 against the Pacers this season, they see a small home favorite, etc. That said, not only do I want the dog here...I am taking them for the outright upset. No points needed. 10* INDIANA +135 |
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05-19-21 | Spurs +4 v. Grizzlies | Top | 96-100 | Push | 0 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #567 Wednesday 10* Top Play San Antonio Spurs (+) @ Memphis Grizzlies @ 7:30 ET - Good news for Spurs fans in this one! The game is AT Memphis! While that may seem like a facetious statement, the fact is that San Antonio went just 14-22 in home games this season and have proven to be a much better road team this season. More good news for Spurs fans is that the 3 games between these teams this season were not only ALL WON by the road team, the average margin of victory was 20 points per game! Not necessarily expecting a road rout here but I do expect the road team to find a way to get the outright win and, if they do fall short it should be by the slimmest of margins. That said, grabbing the points with the road dog in this one is the value play in my opinion as an outright upset certainly is possible, if not probable! The Grizzlies enter the post-season stumbling with a 4-9 ATS run! The Spurs went 23-13 ATS on the road this season. 10* SAN ANTONIO |
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05-18-21 | Hornets +3 v. Pacers | Top | 117-144 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 0 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #559 Tuesday 10* Top Play Charlotte Hornets +3 @ Indiana Pacers @ 6:40 ET - The Pacers wrapped up the season on a 7-0 ATS run while the Hornets wrapped up the season on an 0-5 SU run. That said, it looks awful easy to take Indiana -3 at home and fade Charlotte here does it not? Exactly! This is precisely why, in typical contrarian fashion, I am on the other side of this one! Give me the Charlotte team that no one else wants. However, this is certainly not a play without some strong reasoning behind it. For one thing, the Hornets won the last meetings with the Pacers this season by an average margin of 10 points per game and they dominated with a 20-10 turnover margin edge in the most recent meeting. For another thing, out of all 20 teams that either made the playoffs already or are in this play-in tournament, Indiana has the worst home record. In fact, the only other team even close to their 13-23 SU futility as a host is the Spurs out west. All other 18 teams have at least a .500 record at home on the season. So, the point is, some home court edge is baked into this line but the Pacers do not even deserve it. If I can take a team +3 against a team that is 13-23 at home plus that appears to have some match-up issues when facing this opponent, I will take that team every single time! Grab the points. 10* CHARLOTTE |
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05-16-21 | Rockets v. Hawks OVER 231.5 | Top | 95-124 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher NBA 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Hawks vs Houston Rockets @ 7:10 ET - The Hawks likely will be playing a meaningless game when this tips off. If the Knicks, favored by double digits, beat the Celtics in early action then New York locks up the #4 seed. That means Atlanta would be locked into the #5 seed. As for the Rockets, they had a bad season and so you are simply not going to see much defense from either team here given the situation. That said, we should see a ton of points in this on as I like the recent trending of Houston. They are off a SU win plus are on a red hot ATS run to close out the season and they have been doing it with offense, not defense. That is why the over is on a perfect 6-0 run in Rockets games. Also, the O/U is a white hot 9-1 in Houston's last 10 road games. More of the same here as the Hawks are likely to empty the bench in this one and I expect a lot of points as a result. This game simply highly likely to be played casually with a lot of open looks at the basket and plenty of run and gun looking for quick scoring chances. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta |
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05-15-21 | Bulls v. Nets OVER 234.5 | Top | 91-105 | Loss | -109 | 3 h 59 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #527 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Brooklyn Nets vs Chicago Bulls @ 1:10 ET - This game could be all about the "show" as the Nets can no longer win the top seed in the East as Philly locked that up yesterday but Brooklyn will have their Big 3 on the floor all at the same time in a rarity this season. With Harden, Durant, and Irving all available there should be plenty of points in this one. The Bulls are simply playing out the string on a disappointing season and will not put up much resistance here. At the same time, the Nets are unlikely to play intense defense as they save that for the playoffs. All that said though, Brooklyn is a double digit favorite here with good reason and I expect this one to turn into a high-scoring shootout. There is a reason this total is set so high even though recent match-ups between these teams have trended under and even though both these teams enter this game having been trending under in recent weeks. As long-time followers know, I am a contrarian and that continues here as this game should get nuts with the points and surprise a lot of people. 10* OVER the total in Brooklyn |
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05-14-21 | Cavs v. Wizards OVER 227 | Top | 105-120 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #501 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Wizards vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7:10 ET - The Wizards are a high-scoring team coming off an under which was preceded by 6 straight overs and, overall, a run of 9-2 to the over. I know Cleveland trends toward lower-scoring games but Washington is going to dictate the pace and flow of this game on their home floor. Also, the Cavaliers had averaged 112 points per game in 3 preceding meetings with Wizards prior to a poor 2nd half of scoring leading to their most recent meeting staying under the total. Washington hasn't exactly been playing stellar defense of late and their biggest concern appeared to be getting Russell Westbrook his triple-double record rather than winning games. In any event, Washington does still need one more win to lock up a spot in the post-season and I am sure they will look to "run and gun" their way to victory in this one. That means more points than usual from a short-handed Cleveland team simply playing out the string in a disappointing season. That means very little defensive intensity in this one and the Wizards will be happy to run up the score on the way to a playoff-clinching victory as it would cement them having a spot in the upcoming play-in tournament. 10* OVER the total in Washington |
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05-13-21 | Magic v. Hawks OVER 227 | Top | 93-116 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #567 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Hawks vs Orlando Magic @ 7:40 ET - Neither team shot well in Orlando's loss at Milwaukee Tuesday but the game still totaled 216 points. This followed a game in which the Magic allowed 128 points but the game stayed under the total. This was on the heels of a 12-2 run to the over in Orlando's games. One of the few unders in that stretch was a loss at Atlanta that was on pace for an over as of halftime but both teams shot poorly overall for the game. This ended a streak of 3 straight overs in this series and I fully expect the high-scoring ways to resume today. The Hawks are trying to secure the #4 spot in the East but they sure as hell are not playing defense in hopes of doing so. Now these tired defensive legs are playing the 2nd night of a back to back and 3rd game in 4 days and Atlanta has allowed 124.3 points per game last 3 games. The Magic have allowed 124 points per game last 4 games. Orlando has nothing to play for other than pride and the fast pace played at Milwaukee is very likely to be repeated here. Look for plenty of points as a result as both teams have been giving up a ton of points as of late. More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta |
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05-12-21 | Wizards v. Hawks -6 | Top | 116-120 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #552 Wednesday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks (-) vs Washington Wizards @ 7:10 ET - The Wizards will again be without leading scorer Bradley Beal. The Hawks, after allowing Washington back in the game with a horrific 4th quarter performance, will be much better defensively in this game in my opinion. Speaking of defense, that is something Washington does not believe in. All kidding aside, the Wizards have indeed allowed - NOT including OT points - 124 points or more in 5 of last 6 games. In fact, Washington has allowed 127.5 points per game in those 6 games and, again, that is taking OT points out of the equation! As for the Hawks, normally they have been pretty solid defensively and, keep in mind, this is an Atlanta team that has won 8 straight home games. By the way, the 1st 7 wins in that 8-game streak all were by a margin of 7 or more points. Also, the Hawks are off back to back high scoring games but this followed Atlanta allowing an average of only 109.3 points over an 8 game stretch. Certainly the Hawks have proven much more capable of playing some respectable defense in comparison with the Wizards. Now, after back to back high-scoring thrillers, I look for the home team to absolutely turn things up a notch on the defensive end in this one and get a big blowout home win as a result. 10* ATLANTA |
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05-11-21 | Nuggets v. Hornets OVER 218.5 | Top | 117-112 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #531 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Charlotte Hornets vs Denver Nuggets @ 7 ET - The over is 4-1 in last 5 meetings between these teams. Denver has scored at least 110 points in 8 of last 9 games. The Nuggets have averaged 118 points in those 8 games. The Hornets have scored 107 points or more in 7 of last 10 games. Overall, Charlotte has averaged 110 points per game in these 10 games. Given the history between these teams and the fact this is a non-conference match-up and the recent high-scoring trending for each team, this total is set too low. Grab the value on the high side of this one! 10* OVER the total in Charlotte |
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05-10-21 | Pacers v. Cavs UNDER 231 | Top | 111-102 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #520 Monday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Cleveland Cavaliers vs Indiana Pacers @ 7:40 ET - I know both these teams have been trending over of late but Cleveland has averaged only 97 points the last 3 games. Also, though the over has cashed in 4 of last 9 meetings and 2 of last 3 the two most recent totals averaged just 221 points and neither would have gone over given the current total (231) posted on this game. In other words, the O/U trend in this series could easily be 7 unders and 2 overs the last 9 games. Either way, with Indiana having a much tougher game (Philly) on deck for tomorrow night, I could easily see the Pacers taking a bit of an "off night" for their recent torrid scoring pace. That said, good value here with a very high total set on this game when you consider the recent low point totals produced by the Cavaliers on offense. The Pacers are only about a 7 point favorite here for a reason and the Cavs just do not score a whole lot. If the oddsmakers are right about this spread, that would mean Cleveland would have to score 112 for this game to go over the total. The Cavaliers have been held to 110 points or less in 14 of last 16 games! 10* UNDER the total in Cleveland |
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05-09-21 | Pelicans +4 v. Hornets | Top | 112-110 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
NBA TV Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #507 Sunday 10* Top Play New Orleans Pelicans (+) @ Charlotte Hornets @ 7:10 ET - The Pelicans showed a lot of heart and got big performances from the bench in their 2-point loss at Philly Friday. New Orleans was without Williamson, Ingram, and Adams in that game. Only Adams might be back tonight but, even if he does not play, I like the Pelicans a lot here. New Orleans proved against the 76ers that they are not going down without a fight as they work hard to keep their playoff hopes alive. I was particularly impressed with their performance in the hustle stats like rebounding, steals, and blocked shots. Look for the Pelicans, also seeking revenge for a home loss to Charlotte earlier this season, to give the Hornets all they can handle here. I am grabbing the points but expecting the outright upset. 10* NEW ORLEANS |
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05-08-21 | Pistons v. 76ers OVER 220.5 | Top | 104-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #569 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Philadelphia 76ers vs Detroit Pistons @ 7:10 ET - The Sixers could rest some players here, particularly Joel Embiid, coming off last night's game. However, keep in mind, people always seem to underestimate the defensive value of a player like that. So the total drops in cases like this but yet the weakened defense is an issue. Last night Philadelphia and New Orleans had a high-scoring game through early 4th quarter but then the game just died at that point and stayed under the total. Why? Because it ended up being a tight game late with key possessions featuring plenty of defense during the stretch run of the 4th quarter. I just do not see this game playing out that way. 7 of the last 8 meetings between the Pistons and 76ers have resulted in an over and I do not expect much defense in this one. Philly expended a lot of energy on the defensive end and now hosts a Detroit team that is simply playing out the string on the season. In other words, what do they care about defense? Exactly! So even though the Pistons come in on off a couple of unders and overall trending under in recent weeks, the play here is the over as these teams make it 8 overs in the last 9 meetings. 10* OVER the total in Philadelphia |
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05-07-21 | Pelicans v. 76ers UNDER 227.5 | Top | 107-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #548 Friday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Philadelphia 76ers vs New Orleans Pelicans @ 7:10 ET - The 76ers, not including OT points of course, have allowed just 99 points per game during their current 6-game winning streak. Philadelphia is favored by 9 here. A 108-99 final would fall 20 points below the current number posted on this game. Certainly I am not saying it will necessarily be that low-scoring but the Pelicans do have some injury issues here and Philly wants revenge for losing the 1st meeting between these teams this season. By the way, that game totaled only 195 points. The 76ers have lowly Pistons on deck for tomorrow so they will be fully focused on the defensive end in this one and the Pelicans have another non-conference match-up on deck for Sunday so New Orleans should bring a fully focused effort on the defensive end for this one as well. The Pelicans have stayed under in 6 of last 7 games and the only over in that stretch was an OT game. It did go over in regulation but not by much and the point is that the Pelicans recent averages were skewed a bit by the one outlier game last 7 games. The other 6 games saw New Orleans allow an average of 108 points and score 111 points on average. That is a 219 average and, again, well below the posted total on this game. 10* UNDER the total in Philadelphia |
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05-06-21 | Bulls v. Hornets OVER 217 | Top | 120-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #533 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Charlotte Hornets vs Chicago Bulls @ 7:10 ET - The O/U is a perfect 5-0 the last 5 times these teams have met at Charlotte. The Bulls have not been scoring well recently but they should get a big boost tonight. It will be the first time in a long time that both Lavine and Vucevic will be on the floor together. They are both expected to play tonight and you will see a different Chicago team tonight than you have seen in quite some time. Though I expect this to result in the Bulls scoring much better than they have been, I also expect the Hornets to score well. Charlotte has averaged 111 points per game last 6 home games. Bulls are favored here by a bucket or so for a reason. In other words, based on the above, you can why this game is likely to get into the mid-220s and yet we are dealing with a total in the 217 range as an opener. I will grab the value for a top play. 10* OVER the total in Charlotte |
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05-05-21 | Celtics v. Magic OVER 218.5 | Top | 132-96 | Win | 100 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #515 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Orlando Magic vs Boston Celtics @ 7:05 ET - The Magic are 14-4 to the over last 18 games. The Celtics are 5-0 to the over last 5 games. The most recent match-up between these teams resulted in an under but this followed a run of 3 straight overs in meetings between Orlando and Boston. Not only are the Celtics 5-0 to the over last 5 games, the Magic are 5-0 to the over last 5 home games. I am going to test these two perfect trends here and look for a very high-scoring game in this one as Orlando does tend to shoot the 3-ball much better when at home. The Celtics, not including OT, have averaged 120.5 points per game last 4 games. 10* OVER the total in Orlando |
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05-04-21 | Nets +2 v. Bucks | Top | 118-124 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
TV Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #505 Tuesday 10* Top Play Brooklyn Nets (+) @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 7:40 ET - Chance at immediate revenge for Brooklyn after losing a tight one at Milwaukee on Sunday. The Nets did outrebound the Bucks in that game but were done in by turnovers. Also, the Bucks were simply the better shooting team that night and, even with all that, the Nets still lost the game by just a very slim margin. I expect the Nets to shoot better tonight and get payback. Brooklyn is 5-1 SU this season when they enter a game off back to back losses. The Nets were on a 29-8 run prior to now suffering back to back defeats. They will respond here. The Bucks had lost 10 of 19 prior to now coming up with back to back wins. 10* BROOKLYN |
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05-03-21 | Magic v. Pistons OVER 213 | Top | 119-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #565 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Pistons vs Orlando Magic @ 7:10 ET - There are two teams that have already been eliminated from post-season contention in the Eastern Conference and here they are matched up against each other. The result? Very little defense because, seriously, who cares about this game? It should be played very freely and openly and the odds makers know this. They opened up this total higher than the closing line of the total in the first two match-ups. Both those games stayed under the total by a double digit margin. That said, why would this game have a higher total than those two games given the results of those games? Exactly! The point is that the odds maker knows the same thing we know here. There should not be a lot of defensive intensity in this one. By the way, the over is 13-4 in Orlando's last 17 games. More of the same expected here. 10* OVER the total in Detroit |
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05-02-21 | Nets +1.5 v. Bucks | Top | 114-117 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 60 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #549 Sunday 10* Top Play Brooklyn Nets (+) @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 3:40 ET - The Nets are off a loss but it was without Kevin Durant as he was rested. He'll be back for this one and Brooklyn is 9-0 SU the last 9 times when off a loss and here we can grab them without laying any points so I am testing this 9-0 situation. I know Giannis will be back for the Bucks here too but how healthy will he be? Also, the Nets won the first meeting and I know Harden played in that one and he is out for this one but Irving did not play in that one and he is back for this one. Plus Brooklyn won that game despite a 17-5 turnover deficit. That will not happen again with Irving on the floor in my opinion. Also, the Nets were strong on the glass in that one and I look for more of the same here. Keep in mind the Bucks are just 10-10 SU last 20 games. Couple that with the fact that Brooklyn has been so strong off a loss and you have the ideal set-up here. Many will be enticed to take the Bucks here as Milwaukee is known for being so strong at home but, there is plenty of reason as to why this game is priced this way and I am going contrarian and grabbing the Nets in this one as they get it done on the road. 10* BROOKLYN |
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05-01-21 | Pistons v. Hornets OVER 214 | Top | 94-107 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
Earliest Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #529 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Charlotte Hornets vs Detroit Pistons @ 7 ET - Long-time followers know I use this theory a lot. The theory I am talking about is that when a lot of players are out for teams the betting markets automatically adjust for the "points per game" that are out of the lineup when the reality is that defense, rebounding, and flow of the game is impacted too. A lot of times teams become a little disorganized and you see less structure and more of just going up an down the floor quickly and trying to get quick shots with good looks at the basket. That is what I expect to see here. I know the first meeting stayed under the total but that was largely because of one horrific quarter in terms of scoring. In EACH of the other 3 quarters the teams combined to put up least 52 points and average in the upper 50s per quarter. That said, also consider the lack of motivation for the Pistons to play much defense here. The season is almost over and it has been a bad one for Detroit so why would they aggressively D up here? Exactly! The Pistons have allowed 119 points per game last 8 road games. The Hornets have allowed an average of 111 points per game last 8 games overall. 10* OVER the total in Charlotte |
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04-30-21 | Hawks +9.5 v. 76ers | Top | 104-126 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
Earliest Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #513 Friday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks (+) @ Philadelphia 76ers @ 7:10 ET - The Hawks are off back to back blowout losses and the Sixers are off back to back blowout wins with the latter of the two coming on Wednesday when Atlanta got destroyed as a 9.5 point dog at Philadelphia. This line is the same as the line was Wednesday even though the 76ers won the game by 44 points. The odds makers must not know what they are doing, right? Of course that is not the case! The fact is that the Hawks should be healthier for this game and could even have Trae Young back on the floor which would be huge for them. Either way, with Atlanta having been embarrassed in two straight games and the Sixers rolling to back to back blowout wins, this is the perfect spot to bank on an underdog response and a favorite to fade. It is just natural for the motivation to be much higher for the Hawks here and as long as they stay within single digits, we cash our ticket. I fully expect that here. 10* ATLANTA |
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04-29-21 | Mavs v. Pistons OVER 214.5 | Top | 115-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #501 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Pistons vs Dallas Mavericks @ 7:10 ET - Each team has some injury question marks heading into this one but I feel that has given us solid line value heading into this one. The total has simply been set low to adjust for the injuries but both Porzingis and Richardson for Dallas have missed each of the last 3 games but were upgraded from doubtful to questionable for this one. Also, even without those guys, the Mavericks have averaged 116 points per game last 3 games. The Pistons Josh Jackson is not on the injury report for this one after missing Monday's game with an illness and so I am expecting him back for this one. Detroit has some extra confidence after getting the win over Sacramento on Monday. The Pistons have covered 6 of their last 9 games so, even though their season has been miserable, Detroit has been competitive recently. That also makes me like the over even more here and the Pistons have scored an average of 110 points last 13 games. Dallas is about an 8 point favorite here and you see the two scoring averages I mentioned above. 117 to 109 would sound about right for this game if the odds makers are right about the spread. Note that this final score would put the total double digits above what the odds makers have posted. In other words, line value! 10* OVER the total in Detroit |
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04-28-21 | Hawks v. 76ers -7.5 | Top | 83-127 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
Earliest Dominator - Rickenbach NBA 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Atlanta Hawks @ 7:05 ET - When you think of the Hawks you probably think of Trae Young. Atlanta's star point guard is absolutely the guy that makes this team go. That said, with Young out with an ankle injury, the Hawks are currently a shell of the team they normally are. Atlanta is off a 14-point loss at Detroit and now faces a much tougher test with this game at Philadelphia. Not only are the 76ers known for a being one of the best teams in the league when at home, they play this game with revenge for a loss by double digits at Atlanta earlier this season. The Sixers have been angry after some recent sub-par performances but are getting healthier again as evidenced by their 120-91 blowout win over the Thunder on Monday. They will continue to take out their frustration of some recent losses by pulverizing the next team in their path as well. This is the first of back to backs between these teams as they meet again on Friday so there is no lookahead here. The 76ers will be fully focused here as a result and that is bad news for a Hawks team that will really miss Trae Young in this one! 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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04-27-21 | Blazers v. Pacers OVER 234 | Top | 133-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
Earliest Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #553 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Indiana Pacers vs Portland Trail Blazers @ 7:10 ET - Neither of these teams has been playing particularly well on the defensive end to say the least. Indiana, not including OT points of course, has allowed an average of 119 points per game last 13 games. Portland has allowed an average of 115 points per game last 11 games. That only puts this game right around the number of 234 for the point total but that would be if this was an "average" game but I do not expect that to be the case here. This is a non-conference match-up which can bring a decrease in defensive intensity and both teams have proven, especially in recent games, they are happy to play at a faster pace. Look for a up tempo game here with both teams willing to employ the "run and gun" approach in this one. Both teams shot uncharacteristically poor from 3-point land in the first meeting and it stayed well under the total. That game total was 228 and it stayed under by 30 points as it totaled only 198. Yet here we have a total posted a half-dozen points higher even though the first game missed going over the total by a mile. What does that tell you? Exactly! The odds makers are quite sharp...but we are too! 10* OVER the total in Indiana |
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04-26-21 | Jazz -10 v. Wolves | Top | 104-105 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
Northwest Div Game of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #545 Monday 10* Top Play Utah Jazz (-) @ Minnesota Timberwolves @ 8:10 ET - The loss of Donovan Mitchell to an ankle injury is, no doubt, a big one for the Jazz. However, after they lost their first game without him to the Lakers (tough spot as was 2nd game of B2B) they got to face LA again in their next game and blasted them by double digits. Then their next game was a blowout win at Houston in which they destroyed the Rockets by 23 points. Now, after a home loss to the Timberwolves Saturday, the Jazz get a shot at immediate revenge with this game at Minnesota tonight. I am expecting a massive win here as they are determined to get payback and have already proven they can win by big margins against bad teams even when they are without Mitchell. The clincher for me is this nice little nugget about the Wolves. The last 7 times Minnesota entered a game off a SU win, the Timberwolves have gone 0-7 ATS! Blowout time! 10* UTAH |
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04-25-21 | Grizzlies v. Blazers UNDER 235.5 | Top | 120-113 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #522 Sunday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Portland Trail Blazers vs Memphis Grizzlies @ 4:10 ET - This game starts at 1 pm local time and sometimes you see some poor shooting in earlier start times particularly on a weekend. What I like the most about this situation is this total has just kept climbing and climbing in match-ups between these teams this season. I realize that the over is 3-0 last 3 meetings but now this total was posted at a 235.5 and it has simply gone too far in my opinion. Yes, these teams totaled 258 on Friday but I consider that to be an aberration. Note that Portland's 8 games preceding that one all totaled 225 points or less. 8 straight games with 225 points or less and now we are seeing a total posted on this game that is 10 points higher than that. I realize that the Grizzlies have been scoring a lot of points of late but the Trail Blazers will be ready to play some better defense here after allowing Memphis to shoot 53% from the field in a home loss for Portland on Friday. It is a revenge game for the Blazers and while I do not trust them to get the win because they have lost 4 straight games and 8 of 10, I do expect some better play on the defensive end in this one. Good value here on a total that has simply gone too far. 10* UNDER the total in Portland |
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04-24-21 | Raptors v. Knicks OVER 215 | Top | 103-120 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #501 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Knicks vs Toronto Raptors @ 1:10 ET - Each of the first two meetings between these teams this season have gone under the the total and that is keeping this total lower than it should be. Also, this total has made a downward move already which is offering us additional value. The O/U opened up at a 217.5 and is now down to a 215 as of early gameday morning. The last meeting was a 102-96 low-scoring loss for Toronto. However, the Raptors enter this game loaded with confidence courtesy of a 4-game winning streak which has seen them average 114 points per game! Speaking of confidence and winning streaks, New York has won 8 straight games and, not including OT points, has averaged 112.4 points per game during this winning streak. As you can see, if these teams just hit their recent averages you are looking at this game landing the 225 to 230 range and we are working with a total much lower than that. Also, small line on this game which means it is expected to be a tight finish which means we could some late scramble points - a lot of late fouling from the losing team followed by jacking up quick threes to try and close the gap. I do not think we'll need that but that also helps the value aspect of this play should it come down to that. The Raptors are 5-1 to the over the last 6 times they have been a dog and the Knicks are on a 5-1 run to the over their last 6 games. 10* OVER the total in New York |
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04-23-21 | Wizards v. Thunder OVER 229.5 | Top | 129-109 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #571 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oklahoma City Thunder vs Washington Wizards @ 8:10 ET - The Wizards have won 6 in a row and the Thunder have lost 12 in a row so, of course, this match-up caught my attention. However, just like I can't trust Oklahoma City to stay within 9 points here I also can't trust Washington to win by double digits on the road. Indeed a big number hung on this one by the odds makers in terms of the spread. What I do like here is the over because you have the stronger and hotter team on the road and you know they should score like crazy here and, at the same time, the home team should "get theirs" as they play loose and relaxed at home. Note that the Thunder are allowing 123 points per game during their losing streak. The Wizards are allowing 116 points per game last 10 road games. I could easily see this game getting to the 240 range and it is priced in the 230 range. Keep in mind, Washington has averaged 120.5 points during their current win streak and now take on a team not playing solid defense to say the least. Quite a track meet likely here. 10* OVER the total in Oklahoma City |
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04-22-21 | Suns v. Celtics +5.5 | Top | 86-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #556 Thursday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics (+) vs Phoenix Suns @ 7:10 ET - The Suns barely got by at Philadelphia and the 76ers were without two starters as Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris missed that game. Now Phoenix takes on a Celtics team that also has some injury issues but is expected to have both Kemba Walker and Marcus Smart back for this game. Also, it is the 2nd game of a back to back for Phoenix and the Suns are on a 1-3 ATS run in this situation. Additionally, the Celtics are in a great spot as they have had two days off after a home loss to Chicago. Look for Boston to have plenty of energy here. The Celtics are rested and ready to avenge their loss at Phoenix two months ago and also get back on track after losing to the Bulls. I am aware that Jaylen Brown is likely to miss this game but having Walker and Smart back will be big for this team and they are getting too many points at home in this one in my opinion. Lets take advantage and grab the value. The Celtics had won 6 in a row before their home loss Monday and I look for them to get right back on track here but will grab the points as added insurance in the event they fall just short of the outright win. 10* BOSTON |
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04-21-21 | Suns v. 76ers +1 | Top | 116-113 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
Earliest Dominator - Rickenbach NBA 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) vs Phoenix Suns @ 7:10 ET - This line is right around a pick'em and so we don't have to worry about a point spread. At the time of this posting the line is a +1 on the Sixers. Philadelphia enters this game off a home loss to the Warriors. That is noteworthy for multiple reasons. One is that Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris did not play but one, or both, should be back for tonight's game. But is also noteworthy because each of the last 7 times the 76ers have been at home and coming off a loss, they have gone 7-0 / 100% PERFECT straight-up. Certainly very strong odds as Philly is known for being very strong on their home floor and they have been particularly strong when off a loss! Look for this one to make it 8 in a row as they catch the Suns off another showdown against a top Eastern team and that was a one point win for Phoenix at Milwaukee. Also note that the Suns are 0-7 ATS the last 7 times they have entered a game off an ATS cover. So we have double 7-0 PERFECTION trends working in our favor here. I also like the fact that Philly lost at Phoenix earlier this season and also lost last season's home match-up with the Suns played in August with no fans. All signs pointing to a big home win here. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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04-20-21 | Magic v. Hawks OVER 218.5 | Top | 96-112 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA 10* OVER the total in Atlanta Hawks vs Orlando Magic @ 7:30 ET - This is typical as a few injury issues in this one and so the first move on the total is from 221 to as low as 218.5 and what makes me laugh about this is that you always see this even for lesser known players. The public just assumes "oh they are missing this guy averaging 10 points or game, etc" but never factor in maybe a guys absence hurts a teams defense or their rebounding as far as clearing the glass on defense, etc. All that said, the fact is that when a line moves I like to look for value on the other side and if it is there I take it. This is one of those cases. Orlando has gone over the total in 4 straight games and 8 of its last 10. The over is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings between these teams and 3 of the last 4 meetings at Atlanta have gone over the total. Magic allowing 119 points per game last 9 games. Hawks allowing 113 points per game last 6 games. Also, those two perfect trends above combine for a 7-0 / 100% double perfect situation we are testing here. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta |
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04-19-21 | Cavs v. Pistons OVER 213.5 | Top | 105-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
Central Div Total of the Year - NBA Rotation #501 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons @ 7:10 ET - When it gets late in the season I like to look at match-ups like this one for overs. These two teams are at the bottom of the central division. They are going nowhere this season and they know it. Where is the motivation to play defense? Exactly! Not only that, these teams have a history of high-scoring games when they match-up. Each of the last NINE meetings have gone over. That's right, a 9-0 / 100% PERFECT over run! Each team is allowing 111 points per game this season and about 48% from the field and 37%/38% from three point land. In other words, neither of these teams have been strong on the defensive end this season. I realize that this match-up does not feature the most skilled offensive players in the NBA to say the least but that is factored into this low posted total too which I feel strongly will prove to be far too low. 10* OVER the total in Detroit |
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04-18-21 | Pacers v. Hawks OVER 234.5 | Top | 117-129 | Win | 100 | 5 h 3 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - NBA Rotation #567 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Hawks vs Indiana Pacers @ 1:10 ET - The Pacers are off an under at Utah but, of course, the Jazz are known for playing tough defense particularly when at home and particularly when healthy. That was a great spot for the Jazz to go into shutdown mode. Now Indiana faces a team that is willing to run the floor with them and I am expecting plenty of points here. The Pacers were on an 8-3 run to the over in road games before that under at Utah. Also, 4 of the last 5 times Indiana has visited Atlanta, the result has been an over. The Hawks have not been scoring as well last few games but a lot of that had to do with who they were facing. Now they are hosting a Pacers team which has allowed an average of 122 points per game in regulation time of its last 8 games. The first total on this one off shore was a 238 and it has since dropped to a 234.5 which means additional line value here as well. The Hawks could get John Collins back for this one also. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta |
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04-17-21 | Jazz v. Lakers OVER 216 | Top | 115-127 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - NBA Rotation #555 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Lakers vs Utah Jazz @ 4:40 ET - I am aware of the injury situations with these teams but the first total released on this game was 219 and now we're seeing 216. This is leading to value with the over. The Jazz are in a back to back spot after hosting Indiana yesterday. That was the 5th time in last 7 games that Utah has allowed 111 points or more. Utah scored 119 yesterday and that is also their average points scored the last 8 games. You can see where I am going with this one. That right there is calling for a 119 to 111 final here in this one just like yesterday's game. Of course I am not saying that will be the score but just saying we could very easily be in the 230 range here which means a lot of value with this rather low posted total. Utah's most recent 2nd game of a back to back was a low-scoring win over the Thunder but their 5 preceding 2nd of 2 situations in a back to back saw each game total at least 225 points! The Lakers enter this game on a 5-1 run to the over. 10* OVER the total in LA Lakers |
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