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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-25-16 | Nebraska +1 v. Penn State | Top | 55-56 | Push | 0 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAAB #729 - *10* Top Play Nebraska Cornhuskers +1 @ Penn State @ 7 ET - The Cornhuskers should have Shavon Shields back on the floor tonight and that is a great boost as he's their star player. However, Andrew White III is also listed as probable for tonight's game for the Huskers and that is also a big boost because he lit up Penn State when they visited Nebraska two weeks ago and Shields was out so White took over. Now with Shields and White likely to be working in tandem tonight, I am expecting a big road win for the Cornhuskers. This is one of those nice situations where the line will look "off" to many but the contrarian play is the way to go. In this case, Penn State is playing with revenge and is at home where they've gone 9-3 this season and the Nittany Lions are hosting a Huskers team that has gone 3-6 in road games this season and the line is roughly a pick'em in this game. Looks off doesn't it? Looks easy to take the Nittany Lions doesn't it? The keys here are the return of Shields, the confidence of White against the Lions, and the fact that Penn State is off of back to back wins while Nebraska is off of back to back losses since these teams met on the 13th. The Nittany Lions might overlook the Huskers after having scored a huge upset win over Iowa in their most recent home game. Penn State has been held under 39% from the field in 5 of their past 8 games as their shooting has struggled. Conversely, Nebraska had shot 48% or better in 7 of their past 11 games before a poor performance against the Buckeyes on Saturday. Look for the Huskers to respond after that poor effort. *10* Nebraska |
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02-25-16 | Delaware v. Drexel -3 | 64-74 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAAB #714 - *8* Drexel Dragons -3 vs Delaware @ 6 ET - This is an "ugly game" in terms of being a battle to get out of the basement in the Colonial Athletic Conference. I see solid line value here with Drexel. The Dragons have played a road heavy schedule this season and they are hungry to finish up the season with a pair of home wins. As ugly as the season has been for Drexel, they have covered 2 of their past 3 games heading into this match-up and the Dragons are off of a big road win at William and Mary Saturday. That gives Drexel momentum coming into this revenge game with the Fightin Blue Hens. Delaware knocked off the Dragons earlier this season but these teams have split their season series each of the past two seasons and I expect that to be the case again this season with these conference rivals. The Fightin Blue Hens have won just 2 of their 16 road games this season and Delaware also has covered just 7 of its past 21 games! The Fightin Blue Hens are off of another ugly performance as they scored just 50 points in a 25 point loss at James Madison Saturday. Delaware has won the last two match-ups at Drexel and, prior to this, the Dragons had won 12 of their last 16 home match-ups with the Fightin Blue Hens. It's payback in a big way here between these rivals as the Dragons have revenge for the loss at Delaware two weeks ago as well as the fact that they have lost each of the past two home match-ups with the Fightin Blue Hens. Since these teams met two weeks ago, Drexel has gotten their offense back on track in their past three games while Delaware has struggled with it's shooting and the Fightin Blue Hens are 2-4 ATS and 1-5 SU when off of a game where they were held to 60 points or less. It's an "ugly" match-up but it is offering excellent line value with the home team minus the short number. |
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02-24-16 | Wisconsin +7.5 v. Iowa | Top | 67-59 | Win | 100 | 15 h 26 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAAB #559 - *10* Top Play Wisconsin Badgers +7.5 @ Iowa @ 9 ET - Iowa still controls their own destiny in the Big Ten but they face a tough slate of teams to wrap up the regular season. It begins right here with a Badgers team that has been at the top of their game for many weeks now and will present a huge challenge to the Hawkeyes. Wisconsin has enjoyed plenty of success at Iowa so they certainly won't be in awe of the Hawkeyes 13-0 record in home games this season. Also, Iowa seems to be feeling the late season pressure as they have failed to cover three straight games and had outright losses in two of those three games. The Hawkeyes have had a full week off heading into this game but sometimes all that rest is not such a good thing. In fact, the past three seasons Iowa has a straight-up record of only 5-4 when playing with 5 or 6 days of rest. Also, their long-term ATS record when playing with 5 or 6 days of rest between games is 18-39 ATS. That is ugly and the lack of game action tends to hurt a team that relies so heavily on connecting with their outside shots. Having already been struggling in terms of knocking down their longer range shots, a week off isn't going to help matters. That will spell trouble against a Badgers team rolling with confidence as Wisconsin has won 8 of their last 9 games and had covered 7 straight games before coming up short at the betting window in their last two games. The Badgers had a rare "off night" with their shooting performance at Michigan State last Thursday but Wisconsin did knock off Maryland on the road prior to that game and then responded to the Spartans loss by getting back on track with a home win over Illinois. The Badgers hot shooting coupled with big production in their inside game with a pair of solid frontcourt players makes them a dangerous, hungry dog in a spot like this. Wisconsin is 11-5 ATS the past three seasons as an underdog. Also, this season, when off of a win in conference action the Badgers are 7-1 ATS. The "rust factor" for the Hawkeyes hurts them with the long layoff and Wiscy's long-term success at Iowa continues. *10* Wisconsin |
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02-24-16 | Lakers v. Grizzlies OVER 205.5 | Top | 119-128 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play OVER 205.5 in Memphis vs LA Lakers @ 8 ET - The Lakers, as bad as these team certainly still as you can tell from their SU record, is actually on a 7-1 ATS run. So, why not back them here? The problem with that is that the Lakers defense is still atrocious. Most recently, the Lakers have allowed 51% or better from the field in four straight games. That is the kind of defense that can lead to some huge hot scoring runs for the opposition and Memphis is primed for a breakout game here after they were soundly beaten at Toronto in a loss by double digits Sunday. Memphis was averaging 108 points per game and shooting the ball very well overall in their last 7 games before that ugly loss to the Raptors. The Lakers have allowed an average of 118 points per game in their past 4 games. So, how has LA been getting all these "covers" recently? Their offense of course and that will be the key again tonight which is why I look for this one to fly over the total. The over is 8-2 in the Grizzlies last 10 games against teams with a losing record. The over is 19-10 in Memphis home games this season. The over is 6-3 in the Lakers last 9 games against teams with a winning record. The Lakers know nothing but offense, the Grizzlies don't have to focus on "buckle down" defense in a game where they know their opponent is over-matched. Look for a fast-paced high-scoring shootout in Memphis. *10* OVER. |
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02-24-16 | Hornets +8.5 v. Cavs | 103-114 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* Charlotte Hornets +8.5 @ Cleveland @ 7 ET - While it is true that this is a revenge game for Cleveland, it is also true that the Hornets are playing their best basketball of the season and this game is likely to go down to the wire. Charlotte has won 7 of their past 8 games and 10 of their past 13 games. The only loss the Hornets have in their past 8 games came by just three points. Charlotte is well rested here and has gone 6-2 ATS this season and 22-10 ATS the past three seasons when playing with two days rest. The Hornets also are 8-3 ATS this season and 30-15 ATS the past three seasons in their games against Central Division opponents. The Cavaliers are off of a home loss to Detroit and now have failed to cover 6 of their past 9 games. Once again they are over-priced here. *8* Charlotte |
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02-24-16 | George Washington v. Richmond OVER 147.5 | Top | 73-61 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAAB #525 - *10* Top Play OVER 147.5 in Richmond vs George Washington @ 7 ET - The early line move on this total has been downward from an opener of 150 to the 147.5 it sits it as of early Wednesday morning. The fact the total opened at 150 is a bit of a key number in the sense that this is when college totals tend to look a little high to average observers. In my mind this was some "bait" thrown out there by the odds makers and it's been taken as the early action has come in on the under to drive this total down. I'll take advantage on the other side of this move with the over. Even though the first match-up between these teams was a double overtime game, the teams did combine for a solid 148 points in regulation. I look for this one to get well above that in the 40 minutes. Richmond has nothing to lose here and will play a loose game with an attacking style on the offensive end. George Washington is seeking revenge for the double-OT home loss to the Spiders and, for the Colonials, this is a key game due to their lofty standing in the Atlantic-10 standings. George Washington needs this win and they win games with offense, not defense, so this match-up will feature both teams being happy to push the tempo. Don't be fooled by the paltry 50 points that the Colonials allowed on Sunday as that game against the worst team in the Atlantic-10. Prior to that game, George Washington had allowed high shooting percentages and an average of 74 points per game in their three prior games. The offense of the Colonials has been clicking as they've shot the ball well in 5 of their past 6 games and they come into Richmond with plenty of confidence after putting up 90 versus LaSalle Sunday. The Spiders defense has been ripped to shreds in their past two games but they have shot at least 51.8% from the field or better in each of their past 4 games. Perfect set-up for a nice over here with two confident offenses squaring off in what should be a "run and gun" affair. The over is 5-1 in Colonials games this season when they are off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. The over is 16-9 in George Washington games the past three seasons when they are off of a game where they allowed 60 points or less. The over is 7-3 in Richmond's home games this season. The over is 8-2 in Spiders games the past three seasons when they enter a game on an ATS losing streak of 3 games or more. Richmond has failed to cover each of their last 3 games and look for tonight's game to see both teams pushing the pace for the victory in this match-up with a "pick em" line. *10* OVER |
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02-23-16 | Rockets +5 v. Jazz | Top | 114-117 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Houston Rockets +6 @ Utah @ 9 ET - The Rockets have won 3 straight in this series and 10 of the last 12. This includes having won 4 of the past 6 meetings in Utah. That said, though the Jazz have the home court "edge" here I look for them to struggle to put away the Rockets in this match-up. Houston is "dead set" on making a big push here after the All Star break as they know it is absolutely necessary. While Utah will already be playing their 4th game since the break, the Rockets are in much better shape in terms of rest as this will be just their 2nd game since the break. Houston hit the boards hard and played solid defense in their game on Friday as they held the Suns to 36.6% from the field and outrebounded Phoenix as well. The Jazz seem to have lost some of their defensive "mojo" as they allowed Portland to have a huge 2nd half against them on Sunday. Additionally, prior to the win over the Celtics, Utah had allowed 3 straight opponents to hit at least 47.6% from the field. Having some issues on defense is a big concern with the high-powered Rockets coming to town. Houston has scored 108 points or more in 11 of their past 15 games. By contrast, Utah has only reached that figure 3 times in their past 12 games. This game is projected to be rather high scoring and the Rockets have won 12 of 21 road games with a posted total in the 200 to 204.5 range while the Jazz have lost 16 of 21 home games where the posted total is in the 200 to 204.5 range. Of course, as impressive as those SU numbers are, the beauty here is that Houston doesn't even need the SU win to get the cover here and I look for them to improve to 19-6 (76%) ATS in Tuesday games while the Jazz fall to 4-9 ATS this season when they are off of a game where they scored 105 points or more. |
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02-23-16 | Pelicans +5 v. Wizards | 89-109 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* New Orleans Pelicans +5 @ Washington @ 7 ET - The Pelicans have won 4 of their past 5 games and are motivated for a sweep of the Wizards here after Washington took both games over New Orleans last season. The Wizards got victories in their first two games after the break but then got blasted by 20 in Miami in what was a tough scheduling spot for Washington. Though many might look for the bounce back from the Wizards here, a higher scoring game is expected and Washington is an ugly 3-6 SU and 3-6 ATS in home games with a posted total of 210 or more this season. When facing teams that average 99 points or more on the season, the Wizards have lost 7 of their past 9 games. The Pelicans appear to be on a mission and have been crashing the boards hard and shooting the ball very well in their first two games since the All Star break. They are looking to make it 5 out of 6 with another win here and the road team has covered 5 straight match-ups between these teams. In the Wizards last 13 games they only have 3 wins by more than a 3 point margin. Look for them to be challenged just to win this game let alone to cover the spread. The Wizards have been outrebounded significantly in 4 of their last 5 games and, with the way the Pelicans are crashing the boards since the All-Star break, that could again be an issue for Washington tonight. Look for the Pelicans to give another huge performance as they look to make it 5 wins in their last 6 games. |
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02-23-16 | Vanderbilt +4 v. Florida | 87-74 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAAB #727 - *8* Vanderbilt Commodores +5 @ Florida @ 7 ET - Of course, based on the road and home record of these teams it looks easy to take the home team in this one. Always remember...it's never that easy. It doesn't necessarily mean that Vanderbilt is a lock tonight as certainly there is no such thing. However, the point is that the odds makers know what they are doing and the reason that the Florida line is so small here is because the Gators are not shooting the ball well at all right now and they'll be hosting a Commodores team that is extremely hungry and wants to have a shot at The Big Dance. Vanderbilt has been surging with wins in 8 of their past 12 games. The Commodores have shot the ball very well over their past six games and have averaged 80 points per game during this solid 4-2 stretch. Vanderbilt also has been playing well on the other end of the floor too as they have held the opposition to 38% or less from the field in 5 of their past 6 games. The Gators, conversely, are not shooting the ball well at all right now. Florida has been held under 39.7% in 4 of their past 5 games and it's been a rough 2-3 stretch for the Gators as they also have not defended the 3-ball well in their last 6 games overall. Florida has just 1 cover in their past 6 games while Vandy has covered 2 of their last 3. The Gators are playing with road loss revenge but are just 4-8 ATS the past three seasons in this situation. Also, these teams have split their last 4 meetings but both of Florida's wins came by just three points. The Gators are 1-4 ATS the past 3 seasons as a home favorite in a range of 3.5 to 6 points. Vanderbilt is 14-7 ATS in February games the past 3 seasons while Florida is 7-14 ATS in February games the past three seasons. Big value with the points as Vandy is the hotter team with the more confident shooters as they remain red hot from the field. |
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02-23-16 | Rhode Island v. Davidson OVER 149.5 | Top | 54-65 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAAB #711 - *10* Top Play OVER 149.5 in Davidson vs Rhode Island @ 6 ET - With these teams in the middle of the pack and looking forward to the Atlantic 10 Tournament, this game should be played out as a "wide-open affair" early Tuesday evening. That means not a lot of defensive pressure and plenty of open looks and both of these teams can "score it" as they have proven time and time again this season. Rhode Island is averaging 70 points per game this season and Davidson is averaging 80 points per game on the season. Those averages put this game close to the posted total but what should push it well over is the situation. Not only the expectation of a fast-paced game, it is the fact the Rams have shot the ball very well in their past five games and averaged 74 points per game. The Rhode Island defense has allowed each of their past three opponents to hit better than 50% from the field. Davidson has shot "lights out" in three of their past four games but also has allowed 52% or better from the field in three of their past four games. The Wildcats have gone over the total in each of their past two games while the Rams have gone over the total in five straight games. The over is now 15-6 in February games for Rhode Island the past three seasons combined. Davidson is averaging 84 points per game at home this season but overall, on the season, the Wildcats allow an average of 79 points per game. Davidson will dictate the pace of this game at home and I look for a wild one as the over improves to 4-0 this season in Wildcats' Tuesday games. |
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02-22-16 | Iowa State +5.5 v. West Virginia | Top | 87-97 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAAB *10* Top Play Iowa State Cyclones +5.5 @ West Virginia @ 9 ET - I faded West Virginia on Saturday and got the easy win with Oklahoma as the underdog Sooners won outright by double digits on the road. One of the keys I noted in that game was the nagging injury situations impacting the backcourt of the Mountaineers and I mentioned how this was impacting West Virginia's ability to execute and play the style they like to play. I believe this will again be an issue again on Monday night and that is bad news as the Mountaineers are hosting a Cyclones team that has gotten back closer to full strength with the expected return of Jameel McKay. Iowa State has been shooting the ball extremely well and that makes them an ultra dangerous underdog in a spot like this. The Cyclones have hit at least 51.5% from the field in four straight games. From three point land, Iowa State has connected in the "high 30's" in each of their last two games and this was preceded by a stretch where the Cyclones connected on at least 50% of their threes in 3 of 4 games. This type of hot shooting can give fits to an aggressive defense like the Mountaineers possess. Additionally, the fact that injuries have effected the depth and abilities of West Virginia to play "their style" is also certainly impacting. The Mountaineers have lost 3 of their past 4 games and Iowa State is playing this game with home loss revenge as one of their only two home losses this season came versus West Virginia. It's payback time Monday. The Cyclones are looking to improve to 4-0 SU and ATS when playing with one day or less of rest this season. Look for Iowa State to build off of their win Saturday and improve to 17-5 SU when playing with one day or less of rest over the past three seasons. The Cyclones won here in their last visit and had taken three straight games in the series before the loss to the Mountaineers 3 weeks ago. I expect Iowa State to get their revenge but will grab the points as the value is certainly there with the generous points in this one. |
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02-22-16 | Raptors -4 v. Knicks | Top | 122-95 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Toronto Raptors -4 @ New York @ 7:35 ET - The Raptors lost a tight game right before the All Star break and then had a disappointing effort on the road right after the break as well. Toronto, at home, "righted the ship" yesterday and played solid defense and got a big home win over Memphis. The Raptors not only "talked the talk" they also "walked the walk" yesterday and Toronto looks refocused, re-energized, and is saying the right things heading into this match-up at New York on Monday. Even though the Raptors beat the Knicks recently in Toronto, they won't lose focus here on the road at New York. That's because Toronto is hungry to end a 2-game road losing streak. Prior these back to back road losses, the Raptors had won three straight on the road. The Knicks, though they are at home, will prove to be no match tonight as the Raptors intensity level will be high. New York is off of a win but it came against a struggling Timberwolves team. Prior to this victory, the Knicks had lost 11 of their past 12 games. In other words, New York is going nowhere fast and I like the edges I see here with the Raptors laying such a small number on the road. We can take advantage of the initial line move too as it has come down from a -5 to a -4. New York is an ugly 1-4 ATS this season, and 6-13 ATS the past three seasons, when they are a home dog of 3.5 to 6 points. The Knicks also have lost 7 straight (and gone just 2-5 ATS) in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. The Raptors are 8-1 SU (and 7-2 ATS) in games against divisional opponents this season. Look for Toronto to prove again that they are clearly the top team in the Atlantic Division. |
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02-22-16 | Virginia +1.5 v. Miami (Fla) | 61-64 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAAB *8* Virginia Cavaliers +1.5 @ Miami @ 7 ET - The Cavaliers may be a small underdog here but the fact is the Cavs have a penchant for garnering motivation by being the dog. Virginia is 8-1 ATS as an underdog over the past three seasons. The Cavs, thanks to stifling defense, have been red hot of late. The Cavaliers have won 8 of their past 9 games and they are going for their fifth straight cover in Monday's match-up at Miami. Though the Hurricanes are 13-1 at home this season, Virginia already has big road wins at Pittsburgh and at Louisville. The Cavaliers also lost by just a single point at Duke in a recent clash with the Blue Devils. The combined home record of those 3 teams so far this season is 44-6. The point is that the Cavaliers have already proven on multiple occasions this season that they can get the job done in the toughest of venues. The Hurricanes have failed to cover 7 of their past 12 games and their defense, as shown in the loss at North Carolina Saturday, is nowhere close to the level of defensive efficiency that the Cavs have displayed this season. Particularly in recent weeks, the gap in terms of level of defense in comparing Virginia and Miami has grown considerably. In what is a key battle in the ACC standings I'll grab the hotter team with the superior defense. Even though the Hurricanes are playing with revenge, they are only 3-7 ATS over the past three seasons when they are playing with road loss revenge. |
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02-21-16 | Jazz +3.5 v. Blazers | Top | 111-115 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Utah Jazz +4 @ Portland @ 9:05 ET - Utah plays this game with revenge from a 14 point loss at Portland last month. The Jazz had previously covered each of their last two visits to Portland and that included an outright win over the Trail Blazers last April. Utah comes into this game having won 8 of their past 10 games and they are fully focused on this divisional road opportunity as it is their only road game over a span of about a week and a half. The Jazz are catching the Blazers are the perfect time to spring the road 'upset' as Portland just knocked off Golden State by an insane 32 point margin on Friday. It was just one of those nights when everything 'clicked' for the Trail Blazers. Oftentimes when a team is off of a huge win like that (a 40 point cover), they come crashing back down to earth in ugly fashion in their next game. That is absolutely what I am expecting here. Prior to their win over the Warriors, the Blazers had allowed 3 of their past 4 opponents to hit 47% or better from the field. Utah's solid performance on defense against Boston Friday was the 5th time in their last 8 games that the Jazz have held their opponent to 43.3% or less from the field. Look for defense to play a key role in tonight's game and look for Portland to get caught still celebrating their big win over the #1 team in the NBA. The Trail Blazers have a long-term mark of 68-101 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. The Blazers enter this game on a 4 game winning streak but, prior to the win over the Warriors, Portland was 1-5 ATS this season when entering a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more. The Jazz are 15-8 ATS when playing with revenge this season. Also, Utah is 9-5 ATS when they are off of a win by a margin of 10 points or more in their prior game. Look for the Jazz to roll again tonight. |
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02-21-16 | Temple +4 v. Houston | Top | 69-66 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAAB *10* Top Play Temple Owls +4 @ Houston @ 7 ET - The Owls have circled this two game road trip (Houston and then Tulsa) for multiple reasons. One is that they know that an 0-2 on this same trip last year cost them a trip to the NCAA Tourney. Another is the astonishing and embarrassing home loss they suffered against the Cougars on January 2nd. Temple lost that game by 27 points and the Owls now seek retribution in the payback opportunity at Houston. Temple is off of a home loss (albeit to a top team, Villanova) Wednesday, and the Owls will be fired up here after that loss and after what the Cougars did to them on January 2nd. In between the loss to the Cougars and the loss to the Wildcats, a span of nearly 7 weeks, the Owls only lost two games and those two defeats each came by 3 points or less. Hence, you can see the value here in getting Temple +4 in full on revenge mode. Houston has been hot but they have proven on more than one occasion that they're certainly not unbeatable at home. In fact, the Cougars have lost 2 of their past 6 games at home. Temple is 12-5 ATS in their games against teams with a winning record this season. The Owls also have thrived in the underdog role this season with an 8-3 ATS mark this season. Look for Temple to play their "game of the year" in this fantastic situational spot Sunday. |
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02-21-16 | Cavs +3 v. Thunder | 115-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* Cleveland Cavaliers +3 @ Oklahoma City @ 3:35 ET - Many will be looking at the Thunder in this game based on the situation but the numbers just don't support it. The Thunder do have revenge against the Cavaliers because of a loss in Cleveland back in December. However, Oklahoma City is an ugly 5-12 ATS this season when playing with revenge. Also, the Thunder are off of an upset loss to Indiana on Friday and were a significant favorite in that game. However, Oklahoma City is a putrid 1-9 ATS this season when they are off of an upset loss as a favorite. On Sunday afternoon, the Thunder are hosting a Cavaliers team that seems to be "a team on a mission" over the past month. Cleveland has won 11 of their past 14 games and the Cavs are also a sparkling 5-1 ATS as an underdog this season. LeBron James and Company thrive off of the underdog mentality and use that to their advantage. The Cavaliers are also 14-9 ATS this season in their games against teams with a winning record. The Thunder have failed to cover 8 of their last 11 games overall and Oklahoma City has failed to cover 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. While the Cavs have been very focused on the defensive end, the play of the Thunder of late has left a lot to be desired in terms of the performance on defense. I expect this to be the case again on Sunday and there is solid line value here with Cleveland plus the points. |
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02-21-16 | Detroit +14 v. Valparaiso | 74-90 | Loss | -106 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAAB *8* Detroit Titans +14 @ Valparaiso @ 2:30 ET - Detroit got embarrassed on their home floor last month by the Crusaders. That 18 point margin of defeat was one of the largest that the Titans have suffered this season. In fact, since the calendar turned the page to 2016, Detroit has played 16 games and that ugly loss to Valparaiso is the only game that the Titans have lost by a margin greater than 8 points. That said, some payback is on order for Sunday's game against the Crusaders. Now certainly Valparaiso is the superior team and the Crusaders are very likely to get the straight-up win here. However, the point is that there is every reason to believe this game will be much closer than the first one. Detroit comes into this game having won 6 of their last 7 games. That is definitely a confidence builder. The Titans also are catching Valparaiso at the perfect time as the Crusaders are off of a hard-fought 86-84 win over Oakland which solidified Valparaiso's billing as the top team in the Horizon League. Off of that key victory, and with tough road battles at Milwaukee and Green Bay on deck, it is easy to envision the Crusaders overlooking the Titans here. Also going in our favor Sunday is the fact that Valparaiso has been getting over-valued as the season has gone on. Their non-covering win versus Oakland was the 4th ATS loss for the Crusaders in their past 5 games. Valparaiso has failed to cover 3 of their last 4 games against teams with a winning record. Also, Detroit is a PERFECT 5-0 ATS this season when playing with home loss revenge. |
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02-21-16 | La Salle v. George Washington OVER 137.5 | 50-90 | Win | 100 | 4 h 6 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAAB *8* OVER 137.5 in George Washington vs LaSalle @ Noon ET - The last meeting between these teams was a year ago at LaSalle. The Colonials were a small favorite in that game and yet lost it outright by double digits. That means a little payback is on order for early Sunday action with George Washington hosting the Explorers. This means a high-scoring contest can be expected here because the Colonials are going to push the tempo as they look to exact revenge in a big way. The key to the play on the over here is that LaSalle, despite their poor record on the season, comes into this game with some confidence. This confidence for the Explorers comes not only from last year's solid win over the Colonials but also because LaSalle just knocked off St Bonaventure and put up 71 points in the process on Wednesday. The Explorers have averaged 66 points per game in their last 5 games but, prior to the win over St Bonnie, LaSalle had allowed 83.5 points per game in their 4 prior games. They won't be able to slow down the Colonials today either and I am looking for a 85-70 type game. George Washington is on a long-term run of 6-3 to the over when they are a home favorite in a range of 15.5 to 18 points. The Colonials are also 4-1 to the over this season when they are off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. After rolling at Duquesne Wednesday in a game totaling 155 points, look for another fast-paced game Sunday. |
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02-20-16 | Bucks +9 v. Hawks | 117-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* Milwaukee Bucks +9 @ Atlanta @ 7:35 ET - The Bucks and Hawks are both off of losses last night where each got sloppy with the ball and were done in by turnovers. Milwaukee blew a fourth quarter lead in their game but there really was no excuse for Atlanta to lose their game as they took on a short-handed Miami Heat team. With that said, the value today is with the Bucks as the Hawks continue to struggle with consistency while the Bucks, having nothing to lose and playing very relaxed, will absolutely "bring it" tonight and should stay well within range of the upset throughout this game. The Hawks have allowed two of their last three opponents to connect on at least 49% of their shots from the field. Atlanta also is in a bit of a lookahead here as they have Golden State up next. Even though that is a non-conference opponent, the Warriors are the top team in the league and the Hawks could look right past a 22-33 Milwaukee team. That will prove to be a mistake as the Bucks are 9-5 ATS in the 2nd game of a back to back this season. Also, Milwaukee is a stellar 9-2 ATS the past three seasons combined in road games with a posted total in the 205 to 209.5 point range. The Hawks have shown they overlook teams as they are 11-15 ATS this season in their games against teams with a losing record. Also, Atlanta has lost the 2nd game of a back to back 3 of the last 4 times it has occurred over the past month. Take the big points with the hungry dog here as Atlanta is still trying to sort itself out and is overpriced here. |
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02-20-16 | Kentucky v. Texas A&M | 77-79 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAAB Game #577 - *8* Kentucky Wildcats +1 @ Texas A & M @ 6:30 PM ET - Texas A & M finally got back into the win column on Tuesday but they had to pull away late against Ole Miss and I feel strongly that all is still not well in Aggieland. Let's not forget that the Aggies had lost four straight games prior to that win over the Rebels. Also, Texas A & M, before beating Mississippi, had failed to cover 6 of 7 prior games. They now take on a Kentucky team that has been playing fantastic defense as the Wildcats have held 9 of their past 10 opponents to 41.1% or less from the field. Contrast that with a Texas A & M team that, prior to the win over the Rebels, had allowed each of their 6 prior opponents to hit at least 40% from the field. The Wildcats have truly dominated some opponents with their defense and, in looking at the other end of the floor, the Cats just have too many weapons on offense in my opinion. The Aggies had failed to cover 6 straight SEC games before pulling away late in the win over Ole Miss to get the cash. Texas A & M has not shot well in 4 of their last 6 home games. Also, the Aggies are 2-4 ATS this season when off of a win in conference action. Kentucky is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record this season. The Wildcats are 10-1 SU this season when the posted total on their game is in the 140 to 149.5 range. Also, Kentucky is 8-3 ATS in Saturday games this season and they "bring it" again in a game they know they have to have to maintain top status in the SEC. |
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02-20-16 | Oklahoma +3.5 v. West Virginia | 76-62 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAAB Game #583 - *8* Oklahoma Sooners +4.5 @ West Virginia @ 4 PM ET - This is a revenge game for West Virginia but injuries to their backcourt are a concern. Both Jaysean Paige and Daxter Miles Jr. are banged up right now. This effects the depth of the Mountaineers and also effects the style of basketball they like to play. West Virginia needs healthy guards and a full complement of personnel to be able to slow down the Sooners offense like they did in Oklahoma. What was impressive about that win for OU is that they managed to get the win over the Mountaineers even though they shot just 33% from the field. That alone says a lot about just how strong the Sooners are and, coming off of a pair of recent losses, I am looking for a huge effort from Oklahoma here in a game they know they must have as they need to get back on track. 4 of the 5 losses that Oklahoma has this season have come by 5 points or less and I expect that if OU does not get the outright win here on the road that it is a game likely decided on the final possession and, as a result, the Sooners get the cash either way. The injury situation for West Virginia, even if Paige and Miles play, is absolutely significant because neither guy is 100% and they really need to be against this talented (and angry) Sooners team. Oklahoma is 3-1 ATS as an underdog this season and they get the job done again here in bounce back mode. |
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02-20-16 | Pittsburgh v. Syracuse -3 | 66-52 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 43 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAAB Game #544 - *8* Syracuse Orange -3 vs Pittsburgh @ 2 PM ET - This is a fantastic situation made even stronger by the fact that this line has come down from a -5 to a -3 as of early Saturday morning. The Orange have lost 3 straight games to Pittsburgh. That includes a loss in Syracuse last season and it also includes a loss to the Panthers at Pitt earlier this season. This is a "triple revenge" spot for the Orange and I expect them to make the most of it. The situation is perfect to do just that. Pittsburgh is struggling badly right now and they were fortunate they even won their most recent game. The Panthers were at home against Wake Forest and that is a game they should have dominated and yet they were lucky they even won the game - in multiple overtimes no less! Pittsburgh has now failed to cover back to back games and, prior to the win over the Demon Deacons, the Panthers had lost 3 straight games and 6 of their last 9 games overall. While Pittsburgh has floundered, Syracuse has been coming on strong. The Orange loss at Louisville on Wednesday was preceded by wins in 8 of Syracuse's last 9 games. Also, the Orange had covered 7 of those 9 games. Syracuse will quickly respond off of the loss and we're getting extra line value here because so many put so much weight into one game - the ugly Orange loss to the Cardinals. Syracuse has won 9 of their last 10 home games where the posted total is in the 135 to 139.5 range and the line here is only a -3 so look for that SU mark to improve to 10-1 while at the same time resulting in a nice ATS cover. The Panthers are 1-4 ATS this season when they are off of a win against a conference rival and Pittsburgh is 6-19 ATS the past three seasons when they are off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. |
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02-20-16 | Xavier -4 v. Georgetown | 88-70 | Win | 100 | 5 h 44 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAAB Game #519 - *8* Xavier Musketeers -4 @ Georgetown @ Noon ET - Xavier has one home loss this entire season. It came at the hands of the Hoyas nearly one month ago to the day. You know what that means today! The Musketeers will be ready to avenge their only home loss of the entire season and there is on better way to do that than to exact revenge on an opponents home floor. We get line value because Xavier is on the road and that helps to strengthen the value that is available here with a Musketeers team that is 23-3 on the season. Note that in the first match-up between these teams Xavier lost despite having 17 more field goal attempts. For the game, the Musketeers had 33% more field goal attempts than did Georgetown. It was simply "one of those strange games" where the Hoyas shot lights out while the better team, Xavier, had a very poor night with their shooting. The Musketeers do have a big game on deck with Villanova but there is no way they are going to look past a team that handed them their only home loss this season. Couple that with the fact that Georgetown has struggled and lost 5 of their last 6 games and failed to cover 6 of their past 8 games, and you have solid line value here with Xavier minus the short number on the road. Look for the Hoyas to drop to 0-4 ATS in home games with a posted total in the 145 to 149.5 range while the Musketeers improve to 13-4 ATS in road games with a posted total in the 145 to 149.5 range. You can tell by the total that this is expected to be a higher scoring game and, historically as you can see, that favors the Musketeers at the betting window. |
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02-20-16 | Memphis v. South Florida +7.5 | 71-80 | Win | 100 | 4 h 35 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAAB Game #510 - *8* South Florida Bulls +7.5 vs Memphis @ 11 AM ET - Not only did Memphis beat the Bulls by 15 points at home last month, the Tigers also handed South Florida one of their ugliest home losses of the season in last season's 75-48 Memphis rout. It was a Valentine's Day massacre last year but this year's game with South Florida as the host is the perfect set up for some retribution. The Tigers are unlikely to be on top of their game with this very early start time. An early game like this can have a tendency for each team to come out a little sluggish and, of course, that favors the underdog. Also, the Tigers have a huge game on deck as they host SMU on Thursday. Don't be surprised if Memphis gets caught looking ahead to that game as they did lose to the Mustangs earlier this season. As for South Florida, another disappointing overall season means this is one of the few games the Bulls have left to "make a little noise" in an otherwise uneventful season. South Florida will be gunning for the upset here. Coming off of a win at East Carolina Tuesday gives the Bulls some positive momentum heading into this game and South Florida has covered 5 of their last 7 games. The Bulls most recent home game was their ugliest home effort of the season as they were trounced by SMU. Couple that with last year's ugly home loss to Memphis and there is no doubt that South Florida is going to be highly motivated for this early Saturday match-up. The Tigers are only 2-6 in road games this season and they are 1-4 ATS this season when off of a win in conference action. The Bulls have fared well against the spread this season when facing high scoring teams as they are 6-2 ATS in games against teams averaging 77 points or more per game this season. South Florida stays inside the number again today and, in fact, just might pull off the upset win here! |
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02-19-16 | Iona v. Monmouth -4.5 | Top | 83-67 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAAB *10* Top Play Monmouth Hawks -4.5 vs Iona @ 10 ET - Not surprisingly, the whole world seems to be lining up on Iona (the revenge seeking Gaels) as of early gameday morning. However, the Hawks are the far superior team and also have the advantage of home court in this one. Yes, the first game between these two teams ended up having a relatively tight, crazy finish but one should not overlook the fact that Monmouth had led that game by 20 points in the 2nd half! Now, at home, and still ticked off by some of the post-game antics of Iona (including statements from the Gaels coach), the Hawks will be ready to get another win in this heated series. The first victory came by 8 points but that was on the road. I look for a double digit margin in this rematch. Monmouth still remembers getting knocked out of the MAAC Tournament by Iona last spring. The Hawks, even though they got some road revenge last month, will make the most of this opportunity to blow out an overmatched foe and get some home revenge this month! Monmouth is 5-0 ATS this season in games with a posted total in the 160 to 169.5 range. The Hawks are also 10-1 ATS this season in games against teams with a winning record. Iona is a putrid 1-5 ATS this season (and ugly 5-17 ATS the past three seasons) as an underdog. The 15-10 Gaels will prove to be no match for a 22-5 Hawks team that is much improved from last season while Iona has been on the decline this season. Look for Monmouth to drop the Gaels to 2-7 ATS this season in their games against teams with a winning record. |
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02-19-16 | Hornets v. Bucks | 98-95 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* Charlotte Hornets +1 @ Milwaukee @ 8:05 ET - The Bucks managed a couple of tight wins before the All Star break but Milwaukee had previously lost 7 of their past 8 games prior to the two victories. The Bucks now host a Bobcats team that has won 9 of their past 13 games. I see good line value being able to get a surging Charlotte team in a pick 'em price range while being able to fade a Bucks team that simply had a couple of fortunate victories heading into the All Star break. The Hornets have won each of the past three meetings between these teams in Milwaukee and also has revenge on their minds after losing to the Bucks in Charlotte last month. The Hornets are 7-3 SU and ATS in their games against Central Division opponents. Charlotte also is 5-2 ATS this season in road games with a posted total in the 200 to 204.5 range. The Bucks are 1-3 ATS in home games with a posted total in the 200 to 204.5 range. Milwaukee has a SU record of 20-78 in their last 98 games against teams with a winning record. Look for newly acquired Courtney Lee to have an immediate impact and help lead the way as the Hornets look to continue their playoff push tonight. |
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02-19-16 | Pacers v. Thunder OVER 215 | Top | 101-98 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play OVER 215 in Oklahoma City vs Indiana @ 8:05 ET - The Pacers were once known for their solid defense but that's simply not the case anymore. Indiana went into the break having allowed their opponents to connect on 46% or better of their shots in 5 of their last 7 games. 3 of those 5 games saw the Pacers opponent hit at least 50% from the field. On the season Indiana is allowing 102 points per game in road games. Overall, 6 of the Pacers last 7 opponents have hit the century mark. Now Indiana must, on the road, try to contain a Thunder team that has the #2 ranked offense in the entire league. The Thunder entered the break red hot too as Oklahoma City has scored an average of 119 points per game in their last 8 games (this was a 7-1 streak for the Thunder thanks to their potent offense). OKC has gone over the total in 7 of their past 10 games. The Pacers have gone over the total in 6 of their past 8 games. Indiana has averaged 107 points per game in their last 6 road games and this has included some impressive shooting performances away from home. With as confident as the Thunder are on their home floor they'll be willing to run and gun and this will force the tempo of this game very high. The Pacers will have no choice but to try and match them with offensive efficiency. As a result, don't be surprised if the spread in this game hits close to the number but look for the total to fly over. The Pacers are 5-2 to the over this season against Northwest Division opponents. Indiana is also 7-2 to the over the past three seasons when they enter a game off of 3 or more days of rest. The Thunder, with their ultra talented and ultra potent offense, will take advantage of another poor defensive team as they are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games against teams allowing an average of 99 points or more per game. |
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02-19-16 | Pistons +1 v. Wizards | 86-98 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* Detroit Pistons +2 @ Washington @ 7:05 ET - The Wizards got me last night. The Jazz played a very sloppy game and while Washington certainly deserves some credit for last night's win, this is still not a team I am impressed with. Also, off of an upset win as an underdog (Wizards ended up being a small dog last night), Washington has gone 2-8 ATS this season. The Pistons will be playing their first game since prior the All Star break when they lost as a home favorite against Denver. Detroit has been waiting quite awhile for their chance to get back on track and they are fired up and fully rested for tonight's game. That said, this is a team that is 9-1 ATS this season when they are off of an upset loss as a favorite. Also, tonight's game (as usual in a Washington game) is expected to be higher scoring and Detroit is on a long term 25-12 ATS run in games where the posted total is 210 or greater. With the Wizards playing the 2nd night of a back to back and off of an upset win, and with the Pistons well-rested with fresh legs and healthier bodies after the break PLUS being off of an upset loss as a favorite, Detroit is the play here and I'll gladly grab the extra line value as this game has already gone from a pick'em to a +2 for the Pistons. |
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02-19-16 | Harvard +7.5 v. Columbia | 76-90 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAAB *8* Harvard Crimson +7.5 @ Columbia @ 6 ET - Unbelievably the Crimson are 0-8 ATS in conference play this season. However, Harvard is off of a decent performance against the top team in the Ivy League, Yale, and the Crimson won their prior game versus Brown. Harvard failed to cover in the 6 point win over the Bears but the fact that they are off of a straight-up win and then a respectable effort against the Bulldogs has me eyeing an elusive "cover" for the Crimson Friday. The first match-up that Harvard had with Columbia was decided by just a single point and the Crimson are looking to avenge that tight loss Friday. Columbia is off of a loss to Princeton and has now failed to cover any of their last four games. Even though Harvard has had some trouble on the offensive end this season, Columbia has given up 75 points per game in their last 4 games. The struggling Lions defense should allow for Harvard to "stick around" in this revenge game and I just don't see Columbia ever truly pulling away in this game. That makes the generous points well worth the taking. After their tough, high-scoring loss to Princeton, look for the Lions to drop to 1-4 ATS this season when off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. Columbia will overlook a Harvard team that is much better than their record would lead you to believe. |
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02-18-16 | Maryland v. Minnesota +10.5 | Top | 63-68 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAAB Game #532 - *10* Minnesota Golden Gophers +10.5 vs Maryland @ 8 ET - For Minnesota, this is truly their game of the year. With a disappointing 6-19 season wrapping up over the next few weeks, the last chance the Golden Gophers have to really make some noise would be to knock off a top tier team like Maryland. They are catching the Terrapins at the right time to do just that. The Terps are off of an ugly home loss to Wisconsin. While it would be normal to look for a bounce back in a spot like this, the trouble for Maryland is the fact that they have not been shooting the ball well from the outside and now they'll be without a big man down low tonight. That will exasperate the situation because points won't come as easily in the paint for the Terps either. Since covering their first Big Ten road game this season the Terrapins have not had a single road cover by a margin of more than a point in Big Ten action. They are over-valued again here as the Gophers can absolutely hang within single digits here. As ugly as Minnesota's overall record is this season they certainly have been competing of late. The Golden Gophers have 5 covers in their last 8 games overall. Also, 2 of the 3 non-covers were games decided by single digits. In other words, the likelihood of a blowout here, especially in a big game on Minnesota's home floor, is highly unlikely. Maryland is just 1-5 ATS this season in their games against teams with a losing record. Also, the Terrapins were held under 60 points for the first time this season in their loss to Wisconsin Saturday. The past two seasons, when the Terps were off of a game where they were held to 60 points or loss, they only went 3-7 ATS in their next game. As strong as Maryland has been at times this season, this is a tough spot for them as they could look ahead to upcoming big games and they also are still hanging their heads about the loss to Wiscy. The Terrapins also only have a 4-3 SU record on the road this season and only a 12-15 road record the past three seasons combined. They'll be battling just to win this game...let alone cover it! Grab the big points with a game that truly is THE GAME for Minnesota as they look at this as a chance to make noise in an otherwise disappointing season. |
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02-18-16 | Jazz +1 v. Wizards | Top | 89-103 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Utah Jazz +1 @ Washington @ 7:05 ET - The Jazz had won 7 straight games before suffering a tight loss in their final game before the all star break. Look for Utah to bounce right back here. The Jazz have been a different teams since Derrick Favors returned from injury. Favors was having issues with his back and, since his return, Utah has now won 7 of 9 with him in the lineup. The Jazz also recently were happy to welcome the return of Rudy Gobert to the floor. In games with both Favors and Gobert in the starting five, Utah has won 13 of 20 games this season. The Wizards have one of the top offenses in the Eastern Conference but their defense continues to be an issue. Washington also has been getting dominated on the boards in the month of February. The Wizards have lost 9 of their past 13 games and, in the Eastern Conference, only Brooklyn and Philadelphia have less home wins than Washington. The reason this game is in the pick'em range is because the Wizards have shown time and time again this season that their home court edge is practically non-existent. The Jazz are the hotter team and, even though the all star break can hurt a team's momentum, the fact that Utah is off of their first loss since January 25th makes this the perfect spot to back them. Look for the Jazz to get revenge for losing both games to Washington last season as the Wizards drop to 0-5 SU and ATS in their games against Northwest Division opponents this season. |
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02-17-16 | Boise State +3.5 v. New Mexico | 78-80 | Win | 100 | 13 h 28 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAAB *8* Boise State Broncos +3.5 @ New Mexico @ 10 ET - Revenge is a great angle to play but it is not one you can just blindly buy into each and every time it comes up. In this case, the situation does indeed look "ripe" for a solid winner. Here we have the better team, the Broncos, playing with revenge and they are an underdog because of being on the road. That is the ideal scenario in my opinion. Boise State won both match-ups with the Lobos last season but then lost at home to New Mexico in their first meeting this season. In that game the Broncos had 14 more shot attempts from the field but simply had an "off" shooting night while the Lobos hit a surprisingly high percentage of their shots that night. That helps to give us line value tonight as a repeat of these types of statistical anomalies is highly unlikely. Additionally, the Broncos were knocked out of the conference tourney by the Lobos two years ago. Couple that with the home loss from last month and you can see why Boise State will absolutely be ready to go tonight. The Broncos are 6-0 SU and ATS the past three seasons when they are playing with home loss revenge. The Lobos are 7-12 ATS in February games the past three seasons combined. The Broncos are off of back to back hot-shooting games from three point land and they should get the revenging road win at New Mexico as the Lobos have been struggling to knock down threes in their first four games of this month. Ever since the first Boise State match-up New Mexico's shooting has cooled off. The Broncos will keep them cold in the rematch tonight. |
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02-17-16 | Duke +6.5 v. North Carolina | 74-73 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAAB *8* Duke Blue Devils +7.5 @ North Carolina @ 9 ET - Too many points here in a huge rivalry game. Sure North Carolina has revenge on their minds as they have lost each of the last three meetings between these teams but I just don't see the Tar Heels being able to attain any type of significant margin in this game. The Blue Devils have only lost 6 games all season and 4 of those 6 games were decided by 5 points or less. Duke is brimming with confidence right now as they are off back to back key wins over Louisville and Virginia. North Carolina is also off of back to back wins but the victories came against a slumping Pitt team and a down-trodden Boston College team (whom the Tar Heels barely beat). Prior to the consecutive victories, UNC lost back to back games against Louisville and Notre Dame. Overall, in North Carolina's last 6 games there have been just two victories by more than five points. This is going to be a fierce battle like it usually is when these two teams match-up and I would not be surprised to see it decided by a single possession. That is why the big value here is with the generous points. North Carolina is an ugly 5-11 ATS this season in their games against teams with a winning record. Duke is 7-3 ATS as an underdog the past three seasons combined and 6 of those covers have been outright wins! |
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02-17-16 | Seton Hall +2.5 v. Georgetown | 72-64 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAAB *8* Seton Hall Pirates +2.5 @ Georgetown @ 9 ET - The Hoyas are off what was truly a miracle cover at Providence as they were down huge in that game before mounting a fierce comeback to get the cash in their loss to the Friars Saturday. While that ATS win looks good in the overall records when analyzing Georgetown it caught my eye as an opportunity to fade them in their very next game. While the comeback was nice for Hoyas backers that day, the big hole that Georgetown dug in the game was indicative of just how unstable this team is this season. The Hoyas also entered that game on Saturday having failed to cover 5 of their 6 prior games. Wednesday Georgetown is seeking revenge for a loss at Seton Hall back on the 6th of this month. The Hoyas lost that game by 8 points despite holding the Pirates to just 37% from the field in that game. That doesn't bode well for what can be expected for Georgetown tonight because that was the lowest FG % that Seton Hall had recorded in a month. In other words, don't expect a repeat tonight and adding fuel to the fire for the Pirates tonight is the fact they are off of a loss versus Butler last week. Seton Hall had previously covered 7 straight games and I look for the Pirates to get right back into the ATS win column tonight. Georgetown has a poor history of 6-16 ATS when the Hoyas are at home with a line of pick'em to -3. The Pirates are 8-1 ATS as dog this season and they are 6-1 ATS the past three season when they enter a game with 6 or more days of rest. Seton Hall has been off for a week and will take advantage by utilizing their fresh legs tonight. |
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02-17-16 | Villanova -8.5 v. Temple | 83-67 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAAB *8* Villanova Wildcats -8.5 @ Temple @ 7 ET - Under normal circumstances a #1 ranked team like Nova might get caught overlooking an unranked foe like Temple. However, that won't be the case here because of the Big 5 rivalry in Philly. This is a huge rivalry game in Philadelphia and the Wildcats will certainly not be short on motivation as a result. In my eyes, the Cats already had their "slip up nerve rattled game" that often comes with a #1 ranking. That happened in their poor effort versus St John's Saturday. With that ugly effort out of the way, look for the Wildcats to dominate Wednesday. Villanova won last season's meeting by 23 points. Yes that game was at home but, even in the prior season, the Wildcats won big by 16 points at Temple. The Owls just don't have the talent level that the Cats do. That is why you're seeing a big line here with Villanova. Yes Temple has been hot lately but they take a major step up in level of competition here. The Owls have losses to Houston, Wisconsin, and North Carolina, that came by an average margin of 22.3 points per game. Another ugly defeat looms here as Villanova improves to an incredible 20-1 SU and 17-4 ATS in February games over the past three seasons. |
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02-17-16 | Massachusetts +2 v. Fordham | Top | 66-76 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAAB *10* Top Play Massachusetts Minutemen +2 @ Fordham @ 7 ET - UMass is 3-6 on the road this season and Fordham is 11-4 in home games this season. Those are straight-up records and yet the Rams are only a two point favorite over the Minutemen as the host on Wednesday night. Line looks funny, doesn't it? Exactly! Don't be fooled by the "strange" line. Fade the masses here as they will all want to back the short home favorite when the reality is that Massachusetts is likely to get revenge for the home loss they suffered at the hands of Fordham last month. That is the only win the Rams have in their past six games as their shooting continues to struggle. In 4 of their past 5 losses Fordham has been held to 41.5% or less from the field. Also, the Rams aren't exactly tearing it up on the other end of the court either. Fordham has allowed at least 50% shooting from the field in each of their past 4 losses! That doesn't bode well for the Rams as they now try to slow down a UMass team that has won 3 of their past four games. The current combined record of the 3 teams that the Minutemen beat is 48-29 so these certainly weren't "gimme wins" by any stretch of the imagination. Massachusetts is averaging 76 points per game on the season while Fordham has been held to 67 points or less in 9 of their past 13 games. The Rams are 9-19 ATS (and 4-24 SU!) the past three seasons in games with a posted total in the 140 to 149.5 range and Fordham simply won't be able to keep up with a UMass team surging with confidence right now after totaling 177 points in their past two games. The Minutemen are a solid 5-2 ATS the past three seasons combined when they are playing with home loss revenge. |
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02-17-16 | Dayton v. St. Joe's UNDER 143.5 | 70-79 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAAB *8* UNDER 143.5 in St Joseph's vs Dayton @ 6 ET - This total has jumped up from an opener of 140 to a total of 143.5 as of early gameday morning. This is offering exceptional line value on the under. This is a key battle in the Atlantic 10 Conference featuring the two top teams and I look for defense to be the key emphasis on each side. St Joseph's has allowed 66 points or less in 7 of their past 9 games. Dayton has give up 66 points or less in 5 of their past 6 games. Last year's match-up totaled just 132 points. The season before the teams met three times (including the conference tourney) and none of the games totaled more than 137 points. In fact, the two regular season meetings averaged just 124.5 points per game. The Hawks are off of a big game offensively but will face a much tougher defense tonight and the under has cashed in 6 of 8 times when St Joseph's is off of a game where they scored 80 points or more this season. When the total is in the 140 to 149.5 range the past three seasons for these teams, the under has come in 16 of 27 times for the Flyers and 15 of 24 times for the Hawks. |
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02-16-16 | Ole Miss +9.5 v. Texas A&M | Top | 56-71 | Loss | -101 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAAB Game #545 - *10* Top Play Ole Miss Rebels +9.5 @ Texas A & M @ 9 ET - The Aggies have lost four straight games and they are certainly looking for a big bounce back and are very happy to be back on their home floor tonight. However, just because odds are decent for a Texas A & M win tonight it does not mean that the Aggies are going to cover an inflated spread. The Aggies have not only lost four games in a row straight-up, Texas A & M also has failed to cover the spread in 6 of its last 7. Ole Miss comes into this game on the opposite end of the spectrum as the Rebels have covered 6 of their past 7 games. Ole Miss has won 4 of their past 6 games and, even though that was preceded by a four game losing streak, the Rebels have not lost a game by more than 9 points since a 22 point loss at Kentucky in their first game of the new year. That said, Texas A & M is no Kentucky! Look for the Rebels to challenge the Aggies throughout this game as Ole Miss has been growing in confidence with each SEC win they've been able to notch in recent weeks. In covering 6 of their past 7 games, the Rebels have been shooting the ball very well from three point land and the Aggies are unlikely to be able to pull away in this game as a result. Texas A & M is 4-8 ATS the past three seasons in games with a posted total in the 140 to 149.5 range as high-scoring games favor the opposition. That said, Ole Miss is fully capable of putting up big points and has scored at least 71 points in 11 of their past 12 games since that ugly loss to Kentucky. The Rebels are 4-1 ATS when off of a SU win in conference action and, while the Aggies are feeling the pressure, Ole Miss comes into tonight's game loose and relaxed. That is the most dangerous type of dog to face. Rebels are in this one all the way. |
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02-16-16 | Bowling Green v. Northern Illinois OVER 136 | 60-71 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAAB Game #539 - *8* OVER 136 in Northern Illinois vs Bowling Green @ 8 ET - This line has dropped down quickly from an opener near 140 and this is offering substantial value on the over because these are not the Huskies of old. Northern Illinois used to be known for ugly basketball but they had a surprisingly solid start this season and the offense has led the way. That said, with the Huskies being at home tonight, I look for them to control the tempo here in what should be a very fast-paced game with Bowling Green. Northern Illinois has gone over the total in 6 straight games. The Huskies are averaging 74.4 points per game this season but their defense has certainly been an issue of late. Northern Illinois has allowed an average of 82 points per game in their last 6 games. The Falcons also are certainly not defensive stalwarts as they've allowed 72 points or more in 9 of their last 11 games. Like Northern Illinois, Bowling Green has been dealing with a recent losing streak in MAC action (the Huskies finally snapped their recent streak) but the Falcons did score 68 points in each of their past two defeats. While their most recent road loss featured an ugly performance on offense, Bowling Green had previously averaged 80 points per game in their four prior road games. As a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points this season, the Falcons are 3-1 to the over. The Huskies are 9-3 to the over in conference action this season. Look for another wild one tonight as they build off their victory Saturday and look to run and gun their way past a Falcons team that has lost 5 straight games. The Huskies will be aggressive tonight as they look to take advantage of facing a lesser foe tonight. |
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02-16-16 | Wake Forest +11 v. Pittsburgh | 96-101 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAAB Game #501 - *8* Wake Forest Demon Deacons +11 @ Pittsburgh @ 7 ET - On one hand, this is a revenge game for Pittsburgh as they lost at Wake Forest March 1st last year. However, the prior spring the Panthers knocked the Demon Deacons out of the conference tournament so you can bet that Wake Forest will be ready to go tonight. The Demon Deacons came into this season with expectations that they were the most improved team in the ACC. However, after some impressive victories early this season in non-conference action, Wake Forest certainly has disappointed in conference action. But in this case the Demon Deacons are being given generous points by a Pittsburgh team that is having issues of its own. The Panthers have lost 3 straight games and 6 of their last 9. As it stands now, Pittsburgh is just 6-6 in the ACC and, in looking at their five most recent conference wins, three have come by 5 points or less. The Panthers also have big games on deck with Syracuse, Louisville, and Duke up ahead. Pittsburgh needs to get back into the win column Tuesday and I feel they will but that doesn't mean they will cover this inflated spread. The Panthers have allowed 48.6% FG shooting in conference games this season. By comparison, the Demon Deacons have allowed 45.7% FG shooting in ACC action. Overall, on the season, Wake Forest has played the tougher schedule as they had a tough non-conference slate. That said, and coupled with this Panthers team not having the defensive and rebounding prowess of prior teams, this line absolutely is going to be a challenge for Pittsburgh to cover. Wake Forest comes into this game having shot at least 44% from the field in their past three road games and they will not go away quietly in this one. |
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02-15-16 | Oklahoma State v. Kansas OVER 142.5 | Top | 67-94 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAAB *10* Top Play OVER 142.5 in Kansas vs Oklahoma State @ 9 ET - Kansas lost at Oklahoma State by 19 points as a 9 point favorite last month. Needless to say, the Jayhawks will have revenge on their minds tonight and I certainly expect them to get it. However, that is why the line is quite big on the side here with Kansas and, in my opinion, the significant line value in this match-up is on the total. The Jayhawks offense has been an absolute machine of late and they will look to run the Cowboys right out of Allen Field House tonight. Kansas has connected on at least 46.3% of their shots from the field in each of their last 6 games. The Jayhawks have had a lot of unders recently as they have been playing some solid defense to say the least. However, Kansas will have trouble slowing down the Cowboys as OSU ran with the Jayhawks in the first match-up and put up 86 points and they will be happy to "run and gun" again tonight. Oklahoma State has been involved in some ugly low-scoring games lately so the ability to turn this into a wide-open fast-paced affair will be met with open-arms by the players even though it will frustrate the Cowboys coach. The fact is, Kansas will dictate the pace in this game at home and the Jayhawks want to get their revenge by turning this game into a rout. That is why the value is with the over in this match-up. Kansas is a PERFECT 6-0 to the over the past three seasons combined when they are a home favorite of 12.5 to 15 points! Oklahoma State is a PERFECT 2-0 to the over this season when off of a win against a conference foe. The Allen Field House will be rocking tonight with plenty of transition points and quick buckets and I look for an 85-70 type game in favor of the Jayhawks. *10* OVER in Kansas Monday. |
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02-15-16 | NC State v. Virginia OVER 129.5 | 53-73 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAAB *8* OVER 129.5 in Virginia vs NC State @ 7 ET - Since scoring just 55 points in a loss at North Carolina a month ago, NC State has been in "high gear" on offense. The Wolfpack come into tonight's game at Virginia having averaged 82 points per game in their past 7 games. Each of NC State's last 6 games have gone over the total as defense hasn't exactly been a strong suit for the Wolpack of late. NC State has allowed each of their last 3 opponents to hit at least 47% from the field. The Wolfpack have given up an average of 83 points per game in their last six games. Virginia is well known for playing solid defense and they have given NC State problems in recent meetings. However, the Wolfpack offense has been functioning at the highest level seen in quite some time. NC State won't be able to stop the Cavaliers offense but the Wolfpack will be able to keep the pressure on in this game as their hot shooting has built a lot of confidence. NC State also has been getting a lot of production in the paint and that will help ensure they score much better than they have in past meetings with the Cavs. Virginia has shot an incredibly consistent 48% or better from the field in 7 of their past 8 games. The Cavaliers are off of a last-second loss at Duke on Saturday and Virginia also has huge games coming up with Miami, North Carolina, and Louisville still up ahead on the docket. After the Duke game and with the Tar Heels up next, I just don't see the Cavs having the defensive intensity to completely shutdown the Wolfpack offense in this one. But certainly Virginia is going to score a pile of points against the porous NC State defense and that means this one should fly over the low total. *8* OVER in Virginia Monday. |
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02-14-16 | Evansville v. Loyola-Chicago OVER 133 | Top | 74-73 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAAB Game #855 - *10* Top Play OVER 133 in Loyola-Chicago vs Evansville @ 4 ET - Evansville held a players only meeting after their home loss to Illinois State on Thursday. The Purple Aces were a 10 point fave in that game and yet lost OUTRIGHT by ten points! You can bet that Evansville will be ready to go Sunday. The Purple Aces know they need to do a better job of finishing around the basket and they'll also be happy to push the tempo in this game as they look to get easier shots by causing mayhem for the Ramblers in the transition game. The reason I am backing the over here rather than Evansville is because I think Loyola-Chicago, especially because they are on their home floor, will be "right there" with the Purple Aces throughout this game. The Ramblers are off of back to back wins and those both came on the road. That, of course, builds confidence and now Loyola-Chicago is back home where they've shot at least 48.9% from the floor in each of their past three games. In fact, before the disappointing performance on offense in the ugly win at Bradley, the Ramblers offense had shot over 50% from the field in their last three games overall. Loyola-Chicago is brimming with confidence right now and the first match-up between these teams this season totaled 140 points and the rematch, considering the situation for each club entering this match-up, should easily get to that number again. Each of these teams has gone over the total in 5 of its past 7 games and it will be the offenses leading the way again Sunday. In road games with a posted total between 130 and 134.5 points, the over is a long-term 21-6 in Evansville games! The past three seasons combined, when revenging a road loss versus an opponent, the over is 11-6 in Loyola-Chicago games. Evansville pushes the pace of this game and the Aces are an incredible 50.3% from the field on the season! |
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02-14-16 | Syracuse v. Boston College +11.5 | 75-61 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 27 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAAB Game #848 - *8* Boston College Eagles +11.5 vs Syracuse @ 1 ET - The Eagles are a classic "Ugly Dog" and I see them getting the job done here. The Eagles poor record on the season means few, if any, want to invest in them and this often ends up resulting in an inflated line on the other side. This is exactly what we have here as Syracuse is laying about a dozen points even though they are on the road and in a true lookahead situation. The Orange are off of a big win over Florida State in their most recent game and now have games on deck at Louisville and hosting Pittsburgh on deck for this week. The combined record of these three teams - FSU, Lvl, and Pitt - is 52-19. The record for Boston College so far this season is 7-17. Do you really think Syracuse is going to be fully focused on BC here? Of course not! That spells trouble for the Orange today because the Eagles have built a little confidence with some respectable performances recently. Boston College only lost to the Tar Heels - yes THOSE Tar Heels - by only 3 points in the Eagles most recent game. That was the 2nd cover in the past three games for BC as they also battled hard with Virginia in a recent road game and easily covered an inflated spread. The Eagles have NOT lost the cash in any of their last three home games and they will want to make another statement today (like they did against UNC earlier this week) because, let's face it, that's all the Eagles are playing for right now. The biggest headline they could make at this point in a disappointing season is to knock off a solid ACC foe. Look for Boston College to again put up a hard-fought battle on their home floor and stay well within this inflated number as Syracuse drops to 4-8 ATS as a road favorite in a range of 9.5 to 12 points. The Orange are also an ugly 3-9 ATS the past three seasons when off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. |
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02-13-16 | Gonzaga +6 v. SMU | Top | 60-69 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAAB Game #659 - *10* Top Play Gonzaga Bulldogs +6 @ SMU @ 10 ET - Gonzaga is surging and SMU is fading fast. This is why, even though the Bulldogs are on the road here, Gonzaga is well worth the investment as the Mustangs have lost all of the swagger from their 18-0 start. SMU has now lost 3 of its past 5 games and they are hosting a Bulldogs team that is 20-5 on the season and has not a single game by more than 5 points this entire season. So, as of Saturday morning, with this line sitting at +5.5 or +6, Gonzaga is getting points in a range that would make them 25-0 ATS on the season. The Bulldogs simply do not get blown out and I certainly don't expect them to lose by much at all here either...if they even lose at all. The Mustangs padded their record with a lot of cupcake opponents early this season. Conversely, Gonzaga scheduled (and battled hard with) a lot of tough opponents in the non-conference portion of their schedule. I look for this to bode well in terms of being fully prepped for the situation they are walking into Saturday. Yes, SMU is 12-1 at home this season but Gonzaga is a solid 10-2 away from home this season and the Bulldogs are clearly playing the better basketball of these two teams right now. The Mustangs have struggled to close out tight games and I look for that to continue to be an issue in a match-up Saturday that is going to be difficult for the Mustangs to build any type of sizable margin in the game. The Bulldogs are 23-12 ATS the past three seasons when playing with one day or less of rest. The Mustangs are an ugly 2-7 ATS in home game this season and SMU again appears to be overpriced here. *10* Gonzaga. |
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02-13-16 | Tulsa +8 v. Connecticut | Top | 73-75 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAAB Game #651 - *10* Top Play Tulsa Golden Hurricane +8 @ Connecticut @ 8 ET - The Golden Hurricane are being offered some extreme line value here and I won't pass it up. Certainly Connecticut has revenge on their minds here but they are simply not a strong team on offense and that makes it difficult for the Huskies to cover spreads in this range. UConn scored just 51 points in their loss at Tulsa earlier this season and the Huskies are an ugly 1-7 ATS the last three seasons when they are a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. This is simply a tough price range for a UConn team that prides itself on defense and struggles to put up big points. Another key angle here with regards to the value on Tulsa in this match-up is the fact that the Golden Hurricanes were knocked out of the AAC Conference Tourney last year by Connecticut. Tulsa also lost in their most recent visit to UConn and that was an ugly loss by 25 points nearly a year ago to the day. That said, a little paypack is on order here and the Golden Hurricane are surging with confidence after their win at SMU on Wednesday. Tulsa has averaged 79 points per game in their last three games and all three opponents were solid AAC teams. This does not bode well for a Huskies team that has struggled in home games against quality opposition. Connecticut lost home games to Cincinnati and Temple and only averaged 55 points per game in those two games. The Huskies may get the win this time over a quality foe at home but I don't see them winning this game by more than one or two possessions. *10* Tulsa. |
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02-13-16 | Wisconsin v. Maryland -9 | Top | 70-57 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAAB Game #606 - *10* Top Play Maryland Terrapins -9 vs Wisconsin @ 6:30 ET - Many may look at the revenge angle here for Wisconsin and will be backing the Badgers. However, this truly has all the makings of a blowout win for Maryland. The fact that the Terrapins only beat Wisconsin by 3 in Madison is part of the key to this game. The Terps were up by 8 with less than a minute and a half to go in the game. Maryland let Wiscy back in it over the final minute plus of the game and narrowly escaped with the 3 point victory. Rest assured, the Terrapins learned their lesson and Maryland won't let the Badgers hang around in this game. The Terps will take advantage of a Badgers team that doesn't shoot well at all on the road. In fact, Wisconsin is averaging 62.6 points per game on the road this season while the Terrapins average  solid 80 points per game at home. Coincidentally, a victory in the range of a 15 to 20 point margin of victory is what I would expect here. The Badgers have taken advantage of a friendly schedule recently (with easier road opponents and getting the tougher opponents at home) and the result has been a 6-game winning streak. All this has done is set up Wiscy with false confidence heading into a game in a venue that will result in a complete mismatch for the Badgers Saturday. They don't have the athleticism to keep up with Maryland and Wisconsin does not shoot well enough on the road to keep up with the Terrapins. The fact that Maryland nearly lost at Wiscy after blowing a late 8 point lead in Madison last month ensures that the Terrapins will keep the hammer down late in this game. Instead of allowing an 8 point lead to get whittled down this time that lead will turn into an ever bigger lead and the blowout will be on and will stay on. Maryland is off of an easy win over a non-conference opponent so their lineup is well rested and the Terps have a 6-18 Minnesota team on deck so the Terrapins will absolutely put everything they have into this game Saturday and that's bad news for an over-matched Badgers team. *10* Maryland |
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02-13-16 | Virginia +2 v. Duke | 62-63 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAAB Game #631 - *8* Virginia Cavaliers +2 @ Duke @ 4:30 ET - The Blue Devils have such an incredible history in home games that they are likely to be a popular choice in this match-up with highly-ranked Virginia on Saturday. The key to the value with the road dog here includes the fact that the Cavaliers are seeking revenge for a home loss they were dealt by Duke last January. This is the first meeting since then and the Cavs certainly come into this one red hot and ready to go. Virginia not only has shot better than the Blue Devils this season, the Cavaliers also are superior on defense and certainly they have turned things up a notch in recent games. The Cavs have won 7 straight games and, in covering 3 of their past 4 games ATS, the Cavaliers have held all 4 opponents to 39% or less from the field. To properly put that into perspective, Duke has allowed 10 of its past 12 opponents to hit at least 42% from the field. The fact that Virginia is finally realizing that they must play stifling defense to get where they want to go this season and achieve their goals is leading to some fantastic line value here with the Cavaliers. By taking the Cavs, we have the revenge angle, the vastly superior defense, the hotter team, and we're getting a few points to boot! Duke has already lost at home to Syracuse and Notre Dame and Virginia is superior to both of those teams. Grab the points with the Cavaliers. |
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02-13-16 | Georgetown +4 v. Providence | 72-75 | Win | 100 | 4 h 27 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAAB Game #505 - *8* Georgetown Hoyas +4 @ Providence @ Noon ET - With their victory at Georgetown two weeks ago, Providence has taken three straight games in this series. However, all three Friars wins have been by 4 points or less. Not only do the Hoyas have revenge on their minds here, Georgetown is also catching Providence at the perfect time for the upset. The Friars have lost three straight games since the win over the Hoyas. Providence has struggled on offense this season and this has been particularly true of late. Additionally, the Friars are not known for their defensive prowess so when the offense struggles, Providence struggles. Georgetown certainly has the superior defense in this match-up and the Hoyas also have the "triple revenge" angle working in their favor here. Georgetown enters this game off of a confidence boosting 92-67 win on Monday. The Hoyas defense will be the difference maker in this one and Georgetown is 9-4 straight-up this season in games with a posted total in the 140s. Providence is 5-8 ATS in home games this season and the Friars will be in a fierce battle just to win this game...let alone earn the cover. In other words, the value is with the road dog plus the points. Expect a Georgetown upset but grab the points just in case. |
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02-12-16 | Pennsylvania +9.5 v. Columbia | Top | 53-63 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAAB *10* Penn Quakers +9.5 @ Columbia @ 7 ET - Penn just swept their weekend set with Dartmouth and Harvard for the first time since 2008. The Quakers, a young team, have certainly started to jell as the season has gone on. That makes Penn a very dangerous dog in this spot. There is no quit in these Quakers and they've been hitting the boards hard and winning the rebounding battles as well as cutting down on the turnover issues that plagued them early this season. Penn's overall record may not be that impressive but the key here is the growth of the team and the confidence they now have heading into this weekend as well as the fact that many of their early season defeats were tight losses. 6 of their 10 losses dating back to late November have come by 6 points or less. This includes a pair of OT losses. One of those OT losses was to a tough Princeton team and the Quakers also have another tight loss (by just 4 points) to a solid Temple team this season. The point is that it is going to be tough for Columbia to pull away in this game. Even though the Lions split their games this past weekend they were somewhat fortunate to even get that split. The defense for Columbia was bad in each game as they were lit up for 50%+ from the field overall (as well as from beyond the arc!) in both games. The Lions also could "relax" a little this weekend now that they are finally back home and this means a sagging defense against a foe they could easily overlook since Penn has a losing record on the season and Columbia has Princeton on deck Saturday night. Big value with the hungry and surging road dog in this one! Grab the points with Penn for a *10* Top Play Friday. |
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02-11-16 | Iowa +2.5 v. Indiana | Top | 78-85 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAAB Game #755 - *10* Top Play Iowa Hawkeyes +2.5 Â @ Indiana @ 9 ET - Not surprisingly, the whole world has jumped on Indiana early in this one. The line has gone from as low as a pick'em to the Hoosiers now being favored by 2.5 points. Of course everyone is looking at the perfect home record Indiana has and is feeling this is a "gift" from the odds makers. Of course there is no such thing and I see even bigger value with this play now that the Hawkeyes are getting a few points. Iowa won at Indiana last season so there is certainly no intimidation factor here. Also, the Hawkeyes come into this game having won 16 of their past 18 games. One of those losses came by just a single point. That is why there is such huge value with Iowa in this spot. The Hawkeyes are the better team defensively. Iowa also has the deeper bench. The Hoosiers will try to bounce back tonight after the loss at Penn State on Saturday but, make no mistake about it, that was a crushing Big Ten loss for Indiana. That is the type of defeat that is toughest to bounce back from as the Hoosiers (a 9 point favorite) certainly had no business losing that game. However, disappointing their backers is nothing new for Indiana as they have failed to cover 3 of their past 4 games and I again feel they are getting to much respect from the betting public in this match-up. Don't fall for the trap here. There is a reason this line opened near pick'em even though the Hoosiers are undefeated at home this season. Iowa continues to fly under the radar and yet they are 8-3 ATS in Big Ten action this season. Look for yet another solid cover tonight. |
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02-11-16 | Illinois State +9 v. Evansville | 70-60 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAAB Game #751 - *8* Illinois State Redbirds +9 @ Evansville @ 9 ET - The Redbirds lost by double digits to the Purple Aces last month and that game was at Illinois State. With that said, why should we expect things to change at Evansville? Amazingly, the Redbirds lost by 11 to the Purple Aces despite having 75 shot attempts in the game compared to just 44 for Evansville. This is another one of those statistical anomalies that is serving to give us line value in the rematch. Now, since Evansville is hosting the Redbirds and already won by double digits at Illinois State, many will expect the Purple Aces to roll at home. That is unlikely to be the case. The Redbirds come into this game having won 5 of their past 6 games since the frustrating loss to Evansville. Also, Illinois State has covered 4 of its past 5 games and the lone defeat they've had in this stretch came by a single point. Tonight the Redbirds are a 9 point dog at Evansville. This is huge line value as the Purple Aces come into this game slumping. They are off of a big win versus Missouri State that covered but previously had gone 1-4 ATS since the win over the Redbirds. Also, Illinois State's confidence is sky high after knocking off Wichita State Saturday and overcoming an unusually poor shooting night in that game. Look for the Redbirds to bring forward some of that same defensive intensity tonight as their D got all the credit for the win over the Shockers. Look for a repeat of another big effort on that end tonight. The Purple Aces are 2-5 ATS this season when they are off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. |
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02-11-16 | Wizards +1.5 v. Bucks | Top | 92-99 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Washington Wizards +1.5 @ Milwaukee @ 8:05 ET - The Bucks barely held on to beat Boston on Tuesday and this was just the 2nd win for Milwaukee in their last 9 games. This is the final game before the All Star Break and Washington is intent on earning the series sweep against the Bucks for the season. Not only have the Wizards won all 3 meetings this season, Washington has taken 8 of the last 10 meetings between the teams. The Bucks welcomed back a couple players in Tuesday's game against the Celtics but neither contributed much and Milwaukee was very fortunate to escape with the victory. Now Milwaukee must try to match-up with a red hot John Wall. He and his Wizards teammates have created some significant match-up issues for the Bucks this season and I look for that to continue to be a problem tonight. Wall has been red hot for the Wizards and, overall, Washington has shot a sparkling 49.3% from the field in their last 6 games combined. The Bucks shot surprisingly well against the Celtics on Tuesday but previously Milwaukee had been held to 43% combined in their prior two games. The Wizards have won the cash in 6 of their last 8 road games and I expect them to enter the break with a fourth straight ATS cover in all games overall. Look for Washington's dominance of Milwaukee to continue tonight and, overall, the Wizards are 7-2 ATS against Central Division opponents this season. The Bucks are 1-4 SU and ATS in their last 5 games against teams averaging 99 points or more per game on the season and Milwaukee simply won't be able to keep up with the potent offense of the Wizards Thursday. |
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02-11-16 | Pelicans v. Thunder OVER 219.5 | 95-121 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* OVER 218.5 in Oklahoma City vs New Orleans @ 8 ET - With the sad news of the tragic car accident taking the life of Monty Williams' wife last night it is hard to imagine the Pelicans are going to be very focused on defensive game planning tonight. This already had the makings of an offensive onslaught and the odds makers opened the game up at 220.5 for a reason. The fact it has now dropped a bucket from there is adding even more line value for the over in this match-up. The over is 5-1 in the last 6 Pelicans games against teams averaging 99 points or more per game on the season. Simply put, New Orleans struggles to get stops against the offensive elite. That said, the Thunder certainly fall into that category as Oklahoma City has piled up an average of 119 points per game in their last 7 games. The Thunder have gone 6-1 during this run and the over is 7-2 in their last 9 games. Oklahoma City won't be holding back tonight as it is the final game before the All Star break so I look for a wide-open offensive-minded affair tonight. The over is 6-2 in Oklahoma City's last 8 games against teams averaging 99 points or more per game this season. The over is 8-2 in the last 10 Thunder games against teams from the Southwest Division. There is simply unlikely to be much defensive intensity from either squad tonight and the over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 meetings overall and 3-0-1 in their last 4 meetings in Oklahoma City. The under is 12-2-1 in the Pelicans last 15 games overall. Look for an absolute shootout Thursday night. |
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02-11-16 | Wisc-Milwaukee +6 v. Oakland | 93-85 | Win | 100 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAAB Game #723 - *8* Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers +6 @ Oakland @ 7 ET - This is a revenge game for the Panthers and I see huge value with them getting a half dozen points on the road. UW-Milwaukee suffered a home loss to Oakland last month by 3 points and that was largely due to some ridiculous three-point shooting by the Golden Grizzlies. They knocked down 11 of 17 threes while the Panthers hit a more normal 10 of 34. The point is that Oakland scored more from three point land even though they took half as many shots. That is certainly a statistical anomaly that is unlikely to be repeated here and, keep in mind, the difference was just 3 points (ironically) in that game. Now the Panthers are on the road seeking revenge but that should not be cause for concern. UW-Milwaukee is a fantastic 7-2 ATS on the road this season. In fact, the Panthers have only two losses this entire season that have come by more than 4 points. As for Oakland, they have produced an incredible ATS record this season so the odds maker has no choice but to now inflate their lines. The key to me going against the Golden Grizzlies here is not only the line value but also the fact the few losses Oakland has had this season have come (as you would expect) when they take a step up in class and the Panthers are absolutely one of the top teams in the Horizon League. Don't be surprised if UW-Milwaukee gets the outright win here and certainly the value is with taking the points here with the road dog Panthers. |
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02-10-16 | San Jose State +15.5 v. UNLV | Top | 61-64 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAAB #569 - *10* Top Play San Jose State Spartans +15.5 @ UNLV @ 10 ET - It is no secret that the UNLV basketball program has had issues this season. The key here is that the Runnin' Rebels are not showing any real signs of turning things around and I expect they will have their hands full in dealing with a surging San Jose State team tonight. While the Spartans have won two straight (including an upset win over a solid Fresno State team), they have had a full week off to prepare for this game with a slumping Rebels team. UNLV has lost three straight games both SU and ATS and they've been trying to work in some new defensive looks. The problem is that it is not going well as the Runnin' Rebels have allowed 99 points per game in their past two games. UNLV truly has not had a solid performance defensively in the past two and a half weeks. As for the Spartans, they've started to jell well as a solid unit and San Jose State has held their last two opponents to just 53.5 points per game and a combined shooting percentage in the 31% to 32% range. This gives the Spartans some solid momentum and confidence heading into this match-up with UNLV and the big points appear to be well worth it considering the situation. The Spartans have covered 3 straight games and eight of their last ten. The Rebels came into the season with much higher expectations and yet have not been able to live up to those and they are constantly (and unsuccessfully) having to make changes on the fly. In conference action this season, UNLV has only one win by more than 12 points. I don't see them getting another one here. The Rebels are 2-4 ATS this season when off of a loss in conference action. A big bounce back is unlikely here. The Spartans are 9-4 ATS in their games against teams with a winning record this season. Also, on the season, San Jose State is 3-0 ATS when they're off of a game where they allowed 60 points or less. *10* on Spartans with the big points here! |
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02-10-16 | Missouri +17 v. Vanderbilt | 71-86 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAAB Game #559 - *8* Missouri Tigers +17 @ Vanderbilt @ 9 ET - The Tigers have had another tough season to say the least but the fact is that the Commodores are simply over-priced here. Missouri has covered each of their past two games. After a tough, tight home loss to Ole Miss last Wednesday, the Tigers then showed some resolve in battling hard at Alabama on Saturday. Even after getting down big early in the second half, Missouri kept "pushing it" against the Crimson Tide and eventually lost by single digits. The Tigers are showing they have no quit and I like the big points here against a Vanderbilt team that is a money-burning 3-8 ATS in SEC action this season. In SEC action the Commodores don't have a single win by more than a margin of 18 points and, with the way the Tigers are battling right now I think this line is definitely inflated today. Vanderbilt has been very sloppy in recent games and turnovers are a concern. That's going to be a problem in "putting away" Missouri in this match-up. The Commodores shot much better than the Rebels in their 7 point loss at Ole Miss on Saturday and that says a lot about the other problems that Vandy is having on the floor right now. In home games with a total in the 135 to 139.5 point range the Commodores are on a long-term 11-20 ATS run. Vandy is 1-3 ATS when off of a loss to a conference foe so they have struggled to bounce back off of SEC defeats thusfar. Also, the past three seasons combined, Vanderbilt has lost 5 of 6 games when they are off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more. Look for the Tigers to get their third straight ATS cover here as the recent suspensions have actually helped this Missouri team as they have played better now that the off-court issues have been handled. |
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02-10-16 | Raptors v. Wolves +6.5 | Top | 112-117 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Minnesota Timberwolves +6.5 vs Toronto @ 8:05 ET - Minnesota had been playing much better before their home loss to New Orleans on Monday. That defeat on their home floor was simply a 'dud' and just 'one of those nights' and I look for the Timberwolves to bounce right back tonight. Prior to that defeat, the T-wolves were on a 6-2 ATS run. Minnesota has outrebounded each of their last five opponents and that margin has been double digits twice. Minny is a young team but simply is playing hard and the units have grown more cohesive as the season has gone on. This has paid off for sharps in terms of cashing a few more tickets at the window lately and, after the 'dud' versus the Pelicans, the Timberwolves are likely to bounce back strong tonight. The Raptors have dominated this series of late and that makes it easy for Toronto to underestimate Minnesota. That will prove to be a mistake as the Raptors are off of an easy win at Detroit but that was preceded by a 1-4 ATS run in their past 5 games. In fact, the win over the Pistons was the first time since January 28th that the Raptors had defeated an opponent by more than seven points. The Timberwolves won't be an easy match-up for Toronto. The Raptors are 9-15 ATS when they enter a game having played each of their three prior games on the road. Toronto had allowed 104 points per game in their first three games of this road trip and the Raptors were fortunate that they shot a ridiculous 56% from the floor in their win over Detroit. The Timberwolves have been shooting the ball extremely well and, in their last five home games, they've averaged 112 points per game! They will be tough for Toronto to put away here and I am forecasting the outright upset here but I will grab the generous points being offered! *10* |
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02-10-16 | Nuggets +6 v. Pistons | 103-92 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* Denver Nuggets +6 @ Detroit @ 7:35 ET - The Nuggets are fired up off of a tight loss at Brooklyn on Monday. Denver had previously covered 7 straight games and was on a long-term 13-2 ATS run. This is the last chance for the Nuggets to get into the win column before the All Star break and they've got the right match-up to do it. Detroit is on a 6-10 SU and 6-10 ATS run their last 16 games. The Pistons have allowed about 55% shooting from the field in their last two games and this is nothing new as Detroit has allowed at least 100 points per game in 7 straight games. The Pistons have allowed an average of about 107 points per game during this stretch. The Nuggets, before their loss to the Nets, had allowed 96 points or less in 3 of their past 4 games. Denver is 13-4 ATS when off of a non-conference game this season and has gone 17-9 ATS in all road games this season. While the Pistons do put up a lot of points, the Nuggets have covered 8 of their past 9 games against teams averaging 99 points or more per game on the season! Detroit is on a 9-16 ATS run as a home fave of 3.5 to 6 points and 12 of those 16 losses were outright defeats! In going 4-7 in their past 11 games the Pistons had only 1 win by more than 6 points and that was against the league-worst 76'ers! In other words, as you can see, there is a ton of line value here with underdog Denver as we are able to challenge Detroit to do something they've only done once in their past 11 games...and the Nuggets aren't the Sixers! |
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02-10-16 | Spurs v. Magic +8 | 98-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* Orlando Magic +8 vs San Antonio @ 7:05 ET - The Spurs did get the win and cover at Miami last night. That was despite allowing 57% shooting. San Antonio, already without Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili, has a tough situation here because of a back to back. As mentioned above, the Spurs got the cover last night and it's certainly worth noting that in 3 of their last 4 back to back situations San Antonio has FAILED to cover both games. It's tough to do and, after getting the cash last night, I look for the Spurs to fall short tonight. The Magic played tough with the Spurs in their recent meeting in San Antonio but they simply fell short in the fourth quarter. That is a scenario that is unlikely to be repeated here. The Magic were down just five points to the Spurs on February 1st and then got outscored by 10 points in the fourth quarter. But, on the road and in a back to back, I am not expecting such a significant "end game edge" for San Antonio here. Orlando has been playing much better of late with covers in 5 of their past 6 games. The Magic are off of an upset win on the road at Atlanta Monday and Orlando is an incredible 8-1 ATS this season when off of an outright upset win as an underdog. In other words, the Magic have been solid at sustaining momentum. Orlando is also 8-3 ATS this season when off of a game where they scored 105 points or more. Against the Western Conference this season the Magic have gone 13-5 ATS. Look for another big non-conference COVER on Wednesday. |
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02-09-16 | Spurs v. Heat +7 | 119-101 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *6* Miami Heat +7 vs San Antonio @ 8 ET - The Spurs have had an insane ATS record this season and finally the odds makers have adjusted properly and San Antonio has no longer been the ATS machine it was earlier this season. The Spurs failed to cover at home against the Lakers on Saturday and their covering road win at Dallas had followed a stretch of three straight non-covers on the road. Overall, the Spurs bring a 3-5 ATS run their last 8 games into tonight's match-up at Miami and I look for San Antonio to drop to 1-4 ATS their last 5 road games. The Heat are fired up as they are off of a tough home loss to the Clippers Sunday and Miami has revenge on their minds here as they lost both match-ups with the Spurs last season and that was after having losing in the NBA Finals 4 games to 1 in June of 2014. When the Spurs are in town, it is always a big deal to Miami and the Heat will be ready to go tonight. Miami had covered 6 of 7 before the home loss to the Clips. Also, the Heat have already won 5 of 7 against Southwest Division opponents this season. The Spurs recent ATS fade on the road continues here. |
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02-09-16 | Celtics -4.5 v. Bucks | 111-112 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *6* Boston Celtics -4.5 @ Milwaukee @ 8:05 ET - This is simply a case of two teams heading in opposite directions right now and I see nothing that is likely to change the recent patterns of these teams tonight. In fact, the return of OJ Mayo for the Bucks could "throw off" the current player rotation for the Bucks even more. That's bad news when you consider just how "fluid" Boston's offense has been of late. The Celtics have won 4 straight games and 9 of their last 10 as their offense has led the way. Boston is off of another huge performance as they put up 128 points on Sacramento on Sunday. Milwaukee has been going the other direction as they have lost 5 straight games and 7 of their last 10 as their offense has faltered. Even though their defense kept them in the game at Utah Saturday you may be surprised to know that the Bucks are an incredibly ugly 4-20 ATS the past three seasons when they are off of a game where they allowed 85 points or less! The Celtics are 15-9 ATS when they are off of a game where they scored 105 points or more and Boston has won 15 of their 21 games against teams with a losing record this season. With a non-conference home game on deck there is no way the Celtics will overlook this Eastern Conference foe and the Celtics domination of losing teams this season continues Tuesday night. |
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02-09-16 | Wizards v. Knicks OVER 207 | 111-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *6* OVER 207 in New York vs Washington @ 8:05 ET - Washington's defense continues to be an issue and that will be a problem tonight at New York as the Knicks are hungry to make a statement in their first game since firing coach Fisher. Coach Rambis will step in on an interim basis and though he was certainly known for a bruising style on the floor in his playing days, tonight's game is all about the Knicks getting their flow back on the offensive end. Against a Washington team allowing 100 points or more in 12 of their past 14 games, that certainly should not be a problem. The issue for the Knicks will be slowing down the Wizards on the other end though. That's because Washington has averaged 107.3 points per game in their last 7 road games. The Wizards can score well but they just can't stop anybody. Hence my play on the over in tonight's match-up. Washington has only recorded 5 unders in their past 15 games. The over is 19-9 this season in Wizards games where they are an underdog. Also, when Washington enters off of two days rest, the over is 6-1 this season and 24-11 the past three seasons! The over is 16-7 in Knicks games the past three seasons when they are off of an upset loss as a favorite. After losing to the Nuggets and then firing their coach, look for New York to run and gun tonight! |
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02-09-16 | Northwestern v. Ohio State OVER 132 | 63-71 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAAB Game #739 - *6* OVER 132 in Ohio State vs Northwestern @ 8 ET - The first game between these teams finished well under the total but the Wildcats actually took 67 shots in the game! Northwestern simply had a very poor shooting night as they scored just 56 points despite having plenty of opportunity for big buckets throughout the game. The Cats come into this game having rolling for 76.5 points per game in their past two games. Northwestern comes into this rematch confident as a result of the recent big point production. The problem for the Wildcats recently has been on the other end of the floor. They had a strong defensive effort against a poor Minnesota team but, in their three prior games, the Cats allowed an average of 83.3 points per game! The Buckeyes will take advantage as they are on their home floor and anxious to bounce back after back to back losses against two tough teams - Maryland and Wisconsin - that slowed down their production on offense. Ohio State had averaged 77 points per game in their 5 home games prior to the home loss to Maryland. That said, their offense should get right back on track against the Wildcats. The over is 4-1 this season when Northwestern is off of a game where they allowed 60 points or less. The over is 3-0 the past two seasons when Ohio State is a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. Also, the over is 3-1 this season in Buckeyes games when they are off of a loss to a Big Ten foe in their prior game. |
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02-09-16 | Xavier v. Creighton +1.5 | 56-70 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAAB Game #744 - *6* Creighton Blue Jays +1.5 vs Xavier @ 8 ET - The line certainly looks funny here and long-time followers know what I am doing as a result. We're fading the masses who will line up on Xavier with their 21-2 record on the season and basically being installed as a "pick em" in this game. The Musketeers are a highly-ranked team and facing an unranked Creighton team and yet basically just being asked to win the game here. Look for Xavier to prove to be "fools gold" in this match-up. The Musketeers have faced some weaker Big East foes recently and that has allowed some bad habits to develop on defense. Xavier has allowed an average of 82.5 points per game in their past two games and the Musketeers are allowing a combined average of nearly 50% shooting from the field in their past three games! Creighton was able to get their offense going in their most recent game at home and that gives them confidence heading into a big home match-up with Xavier. The Blue Jays want this game badly and are known for putting up some huge performances on their home floor. They have played the Musketeers very tough in recent seasons including a one point home loss last year and a big road win at Xavier. The season prior the Blue Jays knocked the Musketeers out of the Big East tourney. Xavier is 3-11 ATS the past three seasons when they are off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more. Creighton is 5-1 ATS this season in games against teams averaging 77 points or more. |
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02-09-16 | Michigan State v. Purdue +1 | 81-82 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAAB Game #718 - *6* Purdue Boilermakers +1 vs Michigan State @ 7 ET - This game is in a "pick em" range and I love taking the lower ranked team in a match-up like this especially when they are at home. No doubt the Boilermakers will be motivated for this game as the Spartans have won each of the meeting the past two seasons. Purdue catches Michigan State at a good time as the Spartans are off of a big win over the in-state rival Wolverines. The Boilermakers are off of a rare loss and the final score is not indicative of how tough Purdue played at Maryland on Saturday as the game was much closer than the final score would lead you to believe. The Boilermakers have not lost two straight games this entire season and, after that road loss, I look for them to bounce back strong on their home floor tonight. Both Michigan State and Purdue are allowing just 63 points per game this season but the Boilermakers are a perfect 5-0 ATS this season when facing teams that are allowing 64 points or less per game. The teams' offenses are each averaging in the 78 to 80 point range this season and the Spartans are an ugly 2-5 ATS this season in their games against teams averaging 77 points or more per game. |
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02-08-16 | Nuggets -2 v. Nets | 104-105 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* Denver Nuggets -2 @ Brooklyn @ 7:35 ET - Though this is a back to back spot for the Nuggets they are 7-4 ATS in the second game of back to backs this season. Also, Denver did play early yesterday and there is not any significant travel issue for tonight's game because Denver was already in New York for the match-up with the Knicks yesterday. The Nuggets now face a Nets team that has lost 16 of its past 20 games as they are off of a loss to the lowly Sixers on Saturday. Brookyln has shown a pattern of 1 win followed by 5 straight losses ever since the New Year. That means that the loss to the Sixers is likely just the first of 5 straight defeats for a Nets team that has simply struggled badly all season. Conversely, the Nuggets are surging and have been huge at the betting window too with 6 straight covers and an overall 12-2 ATS run. The past three seasons the Nuggets are 7-0 straight-up when they are a road favorite of 3 points or less. Denver went 5-0 ATS (two games pushed) in those 7 match-ups. Look for Denver to improve to 5-0 ATS against Atlantic Division foes and 12-5 ATS in non-conference match-ups as the Nuggets continue to be under-valued when facing teams from the weaker divisions that are back east in comparison with the tough competition that Denver faces out west. Brooklyn is on a 3-10 SU (and 4-9 ATS) run in their last 13 games as a home dog of 3 points or less. The Nuggets lost both games with the Nets last season and this included a 28 point beatdown in Denver in the most recent match-up a year ago. This ensures that the Nuggets will have the proper focus here and that means a road rout should ensue on Monday night. |
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02-08-16 | Clippers v. 76ers OVER 205.5 | Top | 98-92 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play OVER 205.5 in Philadelphia vs LA Clippers @ 7:05 ET - The Clippers are off of a big win at Miami yesterday that fell just short of the total. Give credit to the Clips for playing solid defense but that is unlikely to be the case again today. This is a back to back spot for Los Angeles and they have a much tougher test on deck with Boston so it's hard to imagine the Clippers will be focused on a big defensive effort against the 8-43 Sixers. One thing is for certain though, the Clippers offense has been flowing just fine without Blake Griffin and the Clips will have no trouble with the porous defense of Philly. The Clippers have averaged 125.3 points per game in their 3 match-ups with the 76'ers the past two seasons. This is the final one for this season and the Clips scored 130 in LA against the Sixers earlier this season. Philadelphia, although still awful on defense, has had much better flow on offense since the acquired Ish Smith and he's expected to be back tonight after missing Saturday's win over Brooklyn. The Sixers have averaged 102.2 points per game in their last 11 games. They have allowed 108 points per game in their last 16 games however. With the Clippers scoring at will tonight and the Sixers willing to run and gun like young teams typically do on their home floor, I see no reason this game shouldn't get up into the 210-220 range. Not a lot of defense should be expected from either team considering the situation. The Sixers most recent home game stayed under the total but, prior to that, the over was 15-8 in 76'ers home games on the season. That trend toward overs at home resumes Monday night. *10* OVER in Philadelphia |
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02-08-16 | Louisville v. Duke OVER 147 | 65-72 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAAB *8* OVER 147 in Duke vs Louisville @ 7 ET - The over is 5-1 in Cardinals road games this season. Though the Cards are off of a game where they allowed just 47 points it had a lot do with facing a horrible Boston College team. Now Louisville visits the most powerful offense in the conference. Duke is averaging 90.5 points per game at home this season and the Cards strong defensive performance against the Eagles certainly "won't hold much water" against the Blue Devils tonight. In fact, the over is 5-3 in Cardinals games this season when they are off of a game where the allowed 60 points or less. Duke has shot the three ball very well in each of their last two games but their defense hasn't exactly been "setting the world on fire" of late. The Blue Devils have given up an average of 78 points per game in their past 6 games and have not defended the perimeter well. 6 of Duke's last 7 opponents have combined to hit a very high percentage of 3-pointers. The one team, Georgia Tech, that the Blue Devils did manage to shut down from three point land still shot the ball very well and put up 71 points on Duke. The Blue Devils rely on their potent offense to win games for them and this should be a run and gun affair completely unlike the last meeting between these teams in Louisville a year ago. That one stayed under the total very easily but, at Duke tonight, this rematch flies over the total as the Cardinals also continue the hot shooting that has defined their road games this season. |
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02-08-16 | St. John's +14.5 v. Georgetown | Top | 67-92 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAAB *10* Top Play St John's Red Storm +14.5 @ Georgetown @ 7 ET - Both of these teams will be hungry tonight but the feeling here is that the Hoyas are simply desperate for a win and certainly haven't been playing like a team that would be poised for a blowout victory. Georgetown has lost 5 of their past 7 games. The two wins that the Hoyas had during this 7 game stretch came by a combined margin of 10 points. Georgetown is also on an 0-5 ATS run entering Monday's action. The Hoyas are allowing an average of 74 points per game in their last six games and they're playing a St John's team that truly challenged Xavier in their most recent road game. The Red Storm lost to the Musketeers by just 7 points. This game followed a game where they battled hard with Villanova before falling by 15 points in the 2nd half. Georgetown is certainly no Villanova this season and I look for it to be difficult for the Hoyas to created a lot of separation in this game. The Hoyas have struggled to find their rhythm on offense and the defense simply isn't what it use to be. In other words, this is not the Georgetown of seasons past. St John's was off of back to back covers against powerful Xavier and Villanova before getting thoroughly embarrassed on Saturday against Butler. That ensures the proper focus here for the Red Storm as they just suffered their worst loss since November. Oftentimes a team struggling with a losing streak like St John's is proves to be better off on the road than at home. The pressure to finally win a game is far greater at home. That said, the Red Storm have been shooting the 3-ball quite well in recent games and have battled hard with some top tier competition. I look for them to stay within single digits tonight against a Hoyas team that is not playing like the same Hoyas team that beat the Red Storm by 20 earlier this season. St John's is on a long-term 14-8 ATS run as  road dog of 12.5 to 15 points. The Red Storm also is 7-4 ATS the past three seasons when playing with home loss revenge. Also, I mentioned the ugly loss to Butler above and the Red Storm are 4-1 ATS this season when they are off of a game where they were held to 60 points or less. While some may look for a Georgetown response here, the fact is that this line is inflated and the Hoyas are on a long-term ugly 10-20 ATS run when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3 games or more. |
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02-07-16 | Utah +6 v. Oregon | Top | 66-76 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAAB *10* Top Play Utah Utes +6 @ Oregon @ 4 ET - Not surprisingly the whole world is likely to flock to Oregon here. I certainly thing the line looks a little funny and, being a contrarian, that means I am all over the Utes in a big way here. The Ducks are 14-0 at home this season and 46-5 in home games the past three seasons combined and yet they opened up as a 5.5 point favorite in this game! Strange, isn't it? Especially when you consider that Oregon blasted the Utes in Utah by 18 points just 3 weeks ago! The fact is that it is "never that easy" in this business and what I see in this particular match-up is that the low number on the game is justified because I wouldn't be surprised at all if Utah wins this game outright. The Utes have a powerful inside game but were limited by the Ducks in the first match-up because of the defense of Chris Boucher. Even though Boucher is likely to play in today's game, he does have an issue with an ankle injury right now. The Utes have lost four straight games against Oregon (including in conference tourney last spring) and this is a significant revenge game for Utah to say the least! Utah is ticked off after a last second loss at Oregon State Thursday and will be fired up to get back into the win column as they had won five straight games previously. The Utes had played solid defense in three straight games before the debacle against the Beavers. Also, Utah has been shooting the ball very well since the home loss to the Ducks. It's payback time on Sunday and I feel this is the perfect spot for revenge with Oregon getting a little over-confident thanks to their current hot streak. As a home fave of 3.5 to 6 points the Ducks are on a 2-4 ATS run. The Utes are on a 4-1 ATS run as a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points. Grab the points with Utah for a *10* Top Play Sunday. |
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02-07-16 | Houston v. Tulsa OVER 141 | 63-77 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAAB *8* OVER 141 in Tulsa vs Houston @ 3 ET - The Cougars knocked off the Golden Hurricane in Houston by an 81-66 count about a week and a half ago. That game went over the total and there is no reason to doubt that the rematch in Tulsa will also go over the total. The Cougars might be without Rob Gray again on Sunday but, on Monday, they put up 71 points on SMU and that was without Gray. That game was the 4th time in their last 5 games that the Cougars had scored at least 71 points and shot at least 46.4% from the floor. Overall, the Cougars are averaging 76.4 points per game in their last five games. The Cougar defense has been somewhat suspect though as they have allowed 73.4 points per game in their last 7 games. Of course Tulsa is going to be fired up here as they seek revenge and the Golden Hurricane have scored at least 75 points in 4 of their past 7 games. The exceptions were the unusual result at Houston and then low-scoring games with Tulane (an awful team, ugly game) and Connecticut (a solid team that loves to play half-court games). In this match-up, it should be all about the run and gun as both teams will be happy to get up the floor quickly in transition in this game. We are getting some line value here because Tulsa's recent home games were against teams that like to slow it down. The last time the Golden Hurricane hosted a team similar to Houston (SMU), the game totaled 150 points. A similar result Sunday can be expected in Tulsa. |
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02-07-16 | Clippers v. Heat OVER 195.5 | Top | 100-93 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 15 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play OVER 195 in Miami vs LA Clippers @ 2:05 ET - There is no denying that Miami has been an 'under team' this season. However, I look for a high-scoring game here on Sunday as the Heat trend toward unders is reversing. Before their tight win at Charlotte Friday, Miami's last 5 games had resulted in 3 overs. The Heat have averaged 101 points per game in their past 6 and they're hosting a Clippers team that has picked things up on offense with the absence of Blake Griffin. The Clips have relied more and more on Chris Paul and JJ Redick and the result has been a red hot offense that has averaged 109 points per game in their past 4 games. 12 of the past 16 match-ups between these teams in Miami have resulted in overs. The first match-up the Heat had with the Clippers this season just barely stayed under the total and Miami has gone 3-1 to the over this season in their other match-ups with Pacific Division teams. With the history these teams have in Miami and the way each offense has been performing of late, I look for another over on Sunday. This is the 6th Sunday game the Clippers have had this season and, so far, only one has stayed under the total. As a road dog of 3 points or less only 5 of 17 Clips games the past three seasons have stayed under the total. Also, the Clippers are off of a big win at Orlando and, only 5 of 15 times this season has a Clips game gone under the total when they are off of a big win by 10 points or more in their prior game. Look for both offenses to stay hot at Miami Sunday. |
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02-07-16 | Hawks v. Magic +3 | 94-96 | Win | 100 | 5 h 16 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* Orlando Magic +3 vs Atlanta @ 1:05 ET - Orlando has lost four straight games to Atlanta so this is a huge revenge spot for the Magic hosting the Hawks. The Magic have been battling hard but still falling short in many of their recent games. After beating Boston, Orlando has lost three straight even though they've taken a total of 27 more shots than their opponents in out-shooting them in each of the past three games. The hard work will pay off and the Magic are hosting a Hawks team that is off of a big win over Indiana Friday. Atlanta won the game despite getting out-rebounded by 20 boards in the game! The Hawks were fortunate as hot shooting definitely bailed them out. However, prior to a hot shooting win at Philadelphia (and who doesn't dominate the Sixers?), Atlanta had been held to a shooting percentage of 43% or less in 6 of their past 8 road games. The Hawks also have been held to 43.3% or less from the field in 2 of their past 3 visits to Orlando. Atlanta is known for enjoying the "nightlife" on Saturday nights and has gone 6-14 ATS in Sunday games the past three seasons combined. Conversely, Orlando is 3-1 ATS in Sunday games this season. The Magic are also 3-1 ATS as a home dog of 3 points or less this season. Orlando is the hungrier team in this match-up and with this being the front end of a home and home set the Magic know they need to take this game tonight because it is not easy to win in Atlanta. Value to the hungry home dog in this one. Grab the points. |
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02-06-16 | St. Mary's v. San Diego OVER 127.5 | Top | 60-43 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAAB Game #683 - *10* Top Play OVER 127.5 in San Diego vs St Mary's @ 9 ET - San Diego is well-known as a lower-scoring team and that, of course, is what is keeping this total quite low. The key to the value here with the over in this game is that St Mary's is off of a rare loss. The Gaels just suffered what was only their third loss in 21 games this season and they are none to happy about it. At halftime of their game at BYU, St Mary's had the lead and was on pace for scoring 74 points. The end result? The Gaels only finished with 59 points in the game and lost badly to the Cougars. As a result I look for a huge push from St Mary's today in terms of the tempo. After their prior two losses this season the Gaels responded with big efforts and got the win plus the game flew over the total each time as St Mary's averaged 85.5 points per game in those two games. San Diego is off of a low-scoring slugfest win over Pacific on Thursday. Prior to that game though, the Toreros had struggled on defense in 4 of their 5 prior games. Just look at the field goal percentage allowed in those 4 games and you'll see what I am talking about. Also, San Diego was on a 5-1 run to the over before the ultra-low-scoring win over the Tigers on Thursday. The Toreros have struggled defensively against good teams and that is why the over is on a 3-0 run in San Diego games against teams with a winning record. The over is also on a 4-1 run in St Mary's road games where the posted total is in a range of 120 to 129.5 points. With the Gaels ready to respond off of their 59 point performance Thursday, this one should fly over the total. |
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02-06-16 | Mavs +6.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 114-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Dallas Mavericks +6.5 @ Memphis @ 8:05 ET - The Grizzlies are off of a hard fought win at New York last night as Memphis was very nearly upset by the Knicks and it took a minor miracle in the final seconds for the Grizzlies to cover that game. Although Dallas was also in action last night there was nothing hard fought about their game as the Mavs were down big early and essentially cruised to an ugly loss to the Spurs. Dallas rested their key players as last night's game was decided rather early. That means fresh legs for the Mavericks here while the Grizzlies are likely to be spent from last night's hard battle in New York. Memphis has fared well in the second game of back to back games this season but the Mavericks beat the Grizzlies in their most recent meeting and Memphis is only 5-9 ATS when playing with revenge this season. The Mavericks are looking to move to 3-0 both SU and ATS this season when they are a road dog of 6.5 to 9 points. Also, Dallas is 9-4 ATS this season when off of a loss by 10 points or more. The Mavericks have lost three straight games but they are 4-1 SU and ATS the past three seasons when they enter a game on a losing streak of three games or more. Dallas is on a long-term 24-14 ATS run in games played at Memphis and this one sets up perfectly. The Mavs are getting sizable points, have the motivational edge off of a loss last night, and have the fresher legs based on the way last night's games played out for these two teams. |
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02-06-16 | North Carolina -3 v. Notre Dame | Top | 76-80 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAAB Game #639 - *10* Top Play North Carolina Tar Heels -2.5 @ Notre Dame @ 7 ET - Huge revenge game for North Carolina. Not only did the Tar Heels lose to the Fighting Irish at home last season, they then proceeded to lose to Notre Dame in the conference tournament championship game last spring. It's payback time here and the Heels are catching the Irish at the right time to impose their will. The Fighting Irish have lost two of their past three games and are consistently getting beat off the dribble. Notre Dame's coach provided a little bulletin board material too by stating there is no longer any "intimidation factor" for the Fighting Irish when facing the Tar Heels. Not smart to make a statement like that and I look for North Carolina to be fired up on Saturday. Other than dominating defensive efforts against a bad Boston College team (twice) and Georgia Tech (once) the Irish have not performed well at all on defense in conference action. You know the Tar Heels are going to "bring it" on that end of the floor Saturday as they seek revenge and, unlike an Irish team that has failed to cover 9 of its last 13, North Carolina has a sparkling 19-3 straight-up record on the season and every single one of those victories has come by at least five points. When UNC is in a price range of pick 'em to -3 they have gone 3-0 ATS the past two seasons. February is "crunch time" in the ACC and the Tar Heels are on an 11-5 ATS run in February games while the Fighting Irish are on a 5-10 ATS run in February games. Also, if you're looking for ND to bounce back just because they are off of an ACC loss, note that the Irish are 5-13 ATS the past three seasons when off of a loss in conference action. |
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02-06-16 | Butler v. St. John's +10.5 | 89-56 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAAB Game #606 - *8* St John's Red Storm +11 vs Butler @ 4:30 ET - Here is another classic case of an ugly dog providing solid line value. The Red Storm, with their poor record on the season, are flying under the radar right now and that's just how I like it. St John's has covered each of their last two games and each match-up was with a tough opponent. The Red Storm got the cash versus Villanova and then at Xavier. They played fantastic defense at home against the Wildcats and then got their offense rolling on the road against the Musketeers. This home game against Butler absolutely could be the game they put it all together with solid play on both ends of the floor. However, even with just being strong on one side of the floor in each of their last two games, the Red Storm have managed to cover each time. Don't blame the Bulldogs for being flat in this game either. Butler is off of a big win against Georgetown and has a big game at Seton Hall on deck. With that said, this is the perfect spot to back the Red Storm. It is a classic "sandwich spot" for Butler and I look for a sluggish game from the Bulldogs and a game that will therefore be much closer than many are expecting. Butler is an ugly 1-5 ATS on the road this season and the Bulldogs are on a long-term 4-14 ATS run as a road favorite of 9.5 to 12 points. St John's gets some payback for the ugly loss at Butler last month. This game will be highly competitive today. |
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02-06-16 | Rutgers +18 v. Nebraska | 63-87 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAAB Game #553 - *8* Rutgers Scarlet Knights +18 @ Nebraska @ 2 ET - Rutgers showed a lot in their triple overtime loss to Illinois on Wednesday. Certainly that was a frustrating loss and ridiculous non-cover for the Scarlet Knights as they had the game covered as a dog (of course) at the end of regulation and at the end of each of the first two overtime periods. Inexplicably, the Knights lost the game by 9 points in the third overtime and failed to cover the spread. Their long losing streak in conference action coupled with that "shouldn't have been" non-cover on Wednesday is helping to drive some nice line value with Rutgers here. Rest assured, this team has some added confidence after the way they battle the Illini on Wednesday. Also, the Scarlet Knights have had an adequate recovery period since that grueling game. That means that Nebraska could be in for quite a dogfight here. The Cornhuskers are still licking their wounds after coming up just short in their home loss to Maryland on Wednesday. That was a big game for Nebraska and they also have a big game at Wisconsin on deck. That said, it will be very tough for the Huskers to focus completely on a 6-17 Rutgers team Saturday and that makes this a nice "big dog" spot for the Scarlet Knights. Rutgers was embarrassed by the Cornhuskers last month and the Knights are 6-3 ATS the past three seasons combined when they are revenging a blowout loss that came by 20 points or more. Nebraska is 2-5 ATS as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points. Overall, the Cornhuskers are on a 6-12 ATS run in Saturday games the past three seasons combined. Don't be surprised if Rutgers keeps this game to a single digit margin! |
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02-06-16 | Marquette v. Xavier UNDER 149.5 | 82-90 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 54 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAAB Game #536 - *8* UNDER 149.5 in Xavier vs Marquette @ Noon ET - Look for Xavier to tighten up the defense after giving up 83 points to St John's on Wednesday. The Musketeers know they won't be able to get a win versus Marquette with the same type of effort on that end of the floor. The Golden Eagles did struggle on Wednesday at Seton Hall as they managed just 62 points against the Pirates. That's good news for under players here as Marquette's struggles are likely to continue on the road against the top team in the conference. The Golden Eagles also will be working hard for a stronger performance on the defensive end as Marquette had been playing solid defense in each of their prior 4 games before a huge letdown effort at Seton Hall. The under is a perfect 4-0 in the last four meetings between these teams and both teams come into this one off of a disappointing efforts on the defensive end so I look for the focus to absolutely be there in this early game on Saturday. The Golden Eagles lost at home to Xavier last month and 9 of the last 12 games that Marquette has played with home loss revenge have resulted in an under. The under went 11-5 in Xavier's February games the past two seasons as that is always "crunch time" in the conference schedule. They need a big effort here on the defensive end (and so too does Marquette) and this game should easily stay under the inflated total. |
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02-05-16 | Celtics +7 v. Cavs | 104-103 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* Boston Celtics +7 @ Cleveland @ 7:35 ET - The whole world is likely to line up on Cleveland here because they are off of a loss. However, the right side should absolutely be the Celtics plus the points in this one. Boston has been playing very well with 7 wins in their past 8 games. Going further back the run is 10 wins in their last 13 games. Also, even when the Celtics have lost they have been ultra-competitive. Since the calendar hit 2016 the Celtics have played 19 games and only one of those games was a loss by more than 6 points! That means if you had Boston +7 in every game since January 1st you would have an 18-1 ATS record! That's how competitive this team has been and they'll certainly be ready to go tonight. Not only did Boston suffer a home loss against Cleveland back in mid-December, the Celtics also were swept out of the playoffs by LeBron and Company last spring. Boston is playing much better basketball now than they were back in mid-December and back in the spring of last year. With that said, there is excellent line value here and I am grabbing the points with the highly motivated road dog in this one. In road games with a posted total of 210 or more, the Celtics are 5-0 ATS this season and a phenomenal 12-1 ATS the past three seasons combined. Though the Cavs defeated Boston earlier this season, Cleveland has a 3-8 ATS mark this season in their other games against Atlantic Division opponents. |
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02-05-16 | Grizzlies v. Knicks +3.5 | Top | 91-85 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play New York Knicks +4 vs Memphis @ 7:35 ET -Â The whole world is likely to line up on Memphis here because the Knicks are off of another loss last night and are now in a tough back to back spot. However, a few key factors are being overlooked here and are providing excellent line value for the Knicks. First off, Memphis has a big game on deck tomorrow night as they face the division rival Mavericks. Dallas enters tonight's action right behind the Grizzlies in the divisional standings. Second key factor is that the Knicks showed a tremendous amount of heart and resilience at Detroit last night. New York came all the way back from a 27 point deficit to actually take the lead in the latter stages of the game. The Pistons barely snuck out the win over the Knicks and New York showed they are going to play hard no matter what the score is. That said, look for a faster start from the Knicks at home tonight after struggling to hit shots early at Detroit last night. New York has suffered some recent losses at home but has faced a very tough schedule. Prior to this tough stretch the Knicks were 13-8 at home on the season. The Grizzlies are off of a win at New Orleans on Monday but previously had gone 3-8 in their 11 prior road games. The 3 wins away from home came against teams that currently have a combined home record of 29-45. In other words, the Grizzlies certainly have not proven to be road warriors and, with the lookahead to the game with the Mavs also proving to be a distraction, I expect Memphis to struggle just to win this game. If Grizzlies do win this game look for it to be by 3 or less as the Knicks will turn this one into a dogfight. Memphis is 3-6 ATS this season when off of a win by a margin of 10 points or more. New York lost to the Grizzlies last month on the road and now the Knicks should get revenge on their home floor as they are 22-11 ATS this season when playing with revenge. |
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02-04-16 | St. Mary's v. BYU OVER 151.5 | Top | 59-70 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAAB Game #759 - *10* Top Play OVER 151.5 in BYU vs St Mary's @ 9 ET - The Cougars lost at St Mary's on New Year's Eve and they have already stated what they need to do to get revenge on Thursday night at home where they are 10-0 this season. BYU wants to attack on both ends of the floor. They know they must not allow the Gaels to slow the game down and turn it into a half court affair. The best odds for the Cougars to get a big home win tonight are if they push the tempo, play attacking defense, rebound well, and then look to get quick points in transition. Of course all of these key variables are attributes the Cougars try to employ each game at home and this has led to Brigham Young averaging 90.4 points per game on their home floor this season. I do not anticipate that the Gaels are going to be able to slow them down. The Cougars put up 74 points at St Mary's 5 weeks ago and that was even with a subpar shooting night that saw BYU connect on only 41.7% of their shots from the floor. BYU is shooting 48.3% from the field in home games this season and the Gaels are hitting a ridiculous 53.2% of their shots from the field on the season. This has led to a 78 points per game average for St Mary's on the year and their inside-outside game (thanks to having a talented big man down low) will again lead to big points tonight. There is no reason that each team can't get into the 80s tonight and that would push this one easily over the total. The Cougars are 11-3 to the over this season when they are off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. BYU's offense gets the job done again tonight but St Mary's hangs right there with the Cougars throughout and that spells O-V-E-R! |
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02-04-16 | Knicks v. Pistons OVER 202 | Top | 105-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play OVER 202 in Detroit vs New York Knicks @ 7 ET - New York has stayed under the total in 4 straight games and 6 of their last 7 but the Knicks and Pistons have combined to go over the total in each of their past three meetings. Detroit enters this game off of an under but previously the Pistons had recorded just 2 unders in their last 12 games. Detroit is hungry to bounce back after a low-scoring loss at Boston while New York is also hungry to get back on track after a low-scoring home loss versus the Celtics. Both the Pistons and Knicks will want to push the pace in this one after being held to 95 points and 89 points, respectively, in their defeats at the hands of Boston. Detroit is known for upping the tempo on their home floor where the over is 65-36-4 in their last 105 games. Coming into this game, the Pistons have averaged 108 points per game in their last 8 home games. The over is on a 30-16-1 run in Detroit's games against Atlantic Division opponents. Also, the over is 15-8 in Pistons games where they are favored this season. The Knicks certainly aren't known for playing stellar defense and New York is 7-2 to the over this season and 26-13 to the over the past three seasons combined when they are off of a divisional game. After that tight divisional battle with the Celtics, look for a very loose and uptempo game to be played tonight at Detroit and that is why this is a *10* on the OVER! |
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02-04-16 | Ohio State +6 v. Wisconsin | 68-79 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAAB Game #713 - *8* Ohio State Buckeyes +6 @ Wisconsin @ 7 ET - The Buckeyes are off of their tight loss to Maryland and have had plenty of time now to rest up and recuperate as they now prepare for a huge revenge game. Undoubtedly Ohio State has not forgotten about the 72-48 beatdown they suffered at the hands of the Badgers in their most recent meeting. To top off the revenge factor that was a home game for the Buckeyes. That makes this the ideal spot to back Ohio State getting a half-dozen points at Madison. Yes, Wisconsin certainly is tough at home but the Badgers are off of a big home win over Illinois where they really had to buckle down on defense and yet Wisconsin still only own the game by 8 points. Though the Badgers have won four straight games the average margin of victory has been just 4.5 points per win. The Buckeyes are 3-0 ATS this season when they are off of a loss in conference action. Ohio State is on a long-term 21-12 ATS run as a road dog in a range of 3.5 to 6 points and that includes 3-1 ATS the past three seasons. Conversely, the Badgers have played 4 games the past two seasons as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points and they did not get the cash a single time as Wisconsin went 0-3-1 ATS in those games. Grab the points with the hungry, revenging road dog in this one. |
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02-03-16 | Maryland v. Nebraska +6 | Top | 70-65 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAAB *10* Top Play Nebraska Cornhuskers +6 vs Maryland @ 8:30 PM ET - Nebraska is certainly not a basketball powerhouse but the Cornhuskers are catching the Terrapins at the perfect time for an upset. Maryland is coming off of a tight win at Ohio State on Sunday and now has a big game on deck Saturday as the Terps will be hosting Purdue. Maryland can't help but get caught looking ahead and the Terrapins have only gone 2-2 in their past four road games and the two road wins each came by five points or less. That means we have great line value here with the home dog Huskers. Look for Nebraska to make some adjustments as their problems on defense relate to not having a lot of size in the middle but I look for them to make some adjustments and it also helps that Maryland's 6'11 Diamond Stone has been struggling recently. He's totaled just 25 points on 35% shooting in his last three games. Should his struggles continue Nebraska could pull off the upset here. Even if Stone does have a bigger game against the Cornhuskers smallish post players I still look for Nebraska to do enough to stay inside the generous point spread being offered here. The Huskers are off of back to back non-covers but previously Nebraska had covered 5 in a row in Big Ten action. The Cornhuskers have been shooting the ball very well in conference action as they are hitting at a 48.7% clip compared to 45.5% from the floor for Maryland. This hot shooting of the Huskers makes them particularly dangerous as a home dog and last year's games were both close as each was decided by 4 points or less. The value with the home dog leads to a Wednesday *10* TOP! |
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02-03-16 | Magic v. Thunder OVER 211.5 | Top | 114-117 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play OVER 211.5 in Oklahoma City vs Orlando @ 8:05 ET - Orlando is off of an under as they faced a top tier defense on the road at San Antonio on Monday. Prior to that game, the Magic had recorded an over in 5 straight games. Now they take on a Thunder team that definitely has a penchant for high-scoring games. Oklahoma City's match-up versus Washington on Monday stayed under the total but they previously had gone over the total in 5 straight games. Tonight's game is very interesting because the Thunder could get caught looking ahead to their huge showdown that looms as their next game. Oklahoma City is at Golden State on Saturday and I expect this to result in less intense effort than usual on the defensive end as the Thunder get caught looking ahead to tougher games. I look for this to make for an "open invitation" for this non-conference match-up to turn into a "run and gun" affair with Orlando. The Magic are not particularly fond of playing defense and they're facing an OKC team that is averaging 110 points per game this season and 121 points per game in their past four games! The Magic were averaging 106.2 points per game in their past 5 games before losing to the Spurs Monday. I look for Orlando to bounce back with a huge scoring effort tonight. When these teams met earlier this season the game went to double overtime but 234 points were scored BEFORE the two overtime periods and I look for another wild one tonight in Oklahoma City which means one thing only...OVER! |
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02-03-16 | St. John's v. Xavier OVER 148 | 83-90 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAAB *8* OVER 148 in Xavier vs St John's @ 6:30 ET - St John's is one of the worst defenses in the Big East but caught a break Sunday when Villanova had a rare "off" shooting performance. Prior to that game against the Wildcats, the Red Storm had given up an average of over 80 points per game in their last 11 games. I look for Xavier to "go off" in this game with a huge performance on offense as their bench is known for huge production and yet had one of their worst games of the season when they did not score well in the 74-66 win at St John's last month. Xavier is averaging 80 points per game on the season and they've scored at least 84 points in more than half of their last 19 games. With that said, getting up in the 90s here for the Musketeers would not be a huge surprise. Additionally, the Red Storm are certainly not known for being a juggernaut on offense but St John's has shot the three ball well in 5 of their last 6 games. The Red Storm can at least keep the final score a little more respectable with a big performance from beyond the arc. I don't expect St John's to see a lot of pressure defense around the perimeter in this game as Xavier is likely to get caught looking ahead to their games against stronger foes like Marquette, Creighton, Butler, Providence, Georgetown, and Villanova. The Musketeers will happily just cruise to a 90-70 type win in this game and that has me looking only one way in this one...OVER! |
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02-02-16 | Celtics -2.5 v. Knicks | Top | 97-89 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Boston Celtics -2.5 @ New York @ 7:35 ET Tuesday - This is a classic case of two teams heading in opposite directions and the situation is also strengthened by the fact that a revenge angle favors the team that has been hot. Boston had won five straight games (and 8 of their last 10) before they lost at Orlando on Sunday. The loss to the Magic this weekend coupled with the fact that the Celtics lost at New York in their most recent meeting on January 12th ensures that Boston is going to bring an extremely intense effort to this game on Tuesday. Look for the Celtics to take advantage of a Knicks team that has been playing sloppy basketball lately and has lost 5 of their past 6 games. Going further back it's a 3-7 run for New York since they got the win over the Celtics three weeks ago. New York has been held to 95 points or less in four of their past six games and they will not be able to keep up with a Boston team that has averaged 112.6 points per game in their last 12 games. The Celtics have scored at least 109 points in all but one of those dozen games. Boston is on a long-term 41-29 ATS run when they are off of a game where they scored 105 points or more. New York certainly would be looking to bounce back here after an ugly loss in their most recent game. However, the Knicks pattern in this situation in recent seasons has not been good. New York's straight-up records are 3-9 this season and 18-54 the past three seasons when they are off of a loss by a margin of 10 points or more. In other words, look for the Knicks recent struggles to continue tonight at home against Boston. |
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02-02-16 | Georgetown +5.5 v. Butler | 76-87 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAAB *8* Georgetown Hoyas +5.5 @ Butler @ 7 ET Tuesday - People are certainly buying into the "revenge angle" here for Butler as the line has been driven up from a 4.5 to a 5.5 as of early Tuesday morning. That said, I see great value with the underdog Hoyas in this spot. Georgetown has won 5 of the past 6 meetings between the teams and they covered 4 of those 6 games. The only loss that the Hoyas had came by a margin of just 6 points and that was in a neutral floor game played during a Thanksgiving weekend. Butler is known for being strong on their home floor but that doesn't mean they get the cash here. In fact, the Bulldogs have only covered 1 of their past 9 games overall and three of the non-covering games were here on their home floor. Butler continues to be over-rated and, in their only two home games against quality Big East competition they lost each game. The Bulldogs lost home games to Villanova and Providence. As for Georgetown, they will be ultra-hungry for this game after a tight home loss to the Friars on Sunday. Speaking of tight losses, though the Hoyas 13-9 overall record on the season is not that impressive, 7 of Georgetown's 9 losses have come by a margin of 6 points or less. The Hoyas are playing ultra-competitive basketball right now and the Bulldogs have shown already that they are vulnerable on their home floor this season. Georgetown is 6-3 ATS in conference action this season and the Hoyas are 14-7 ATS when they are off of a loss to a conference foe. The Bulldogs are 1-6 ATS in conference games this season and Butler has a 2-7 ATS mark in games against teams with a winning record this season. |
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02-02-16 | Akron v. Ohio OVER 147 | Top | 80-68 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAAB *10* Top Play OVER 147 in Ohio vs Akron @ 7 ET Tuesday - The early move on this total has been downward from an opener of 150.5 all the way down to a 147 as of early Tuesday morning. That adds even more value to a fantastic spot for an over. The Zips have won four straight games and have shot the ball very well from three point land in all four of these victories. Akron has averaged 79 points per game during this hot streak and three of the four games went over the total. The Zips defense struggled in three of the four games and this was against weaker teams than what Akron is faced with tonight. Ohio University has been strong at home all season long and the Bobcats 10-1 mark on their home floor has been keyed by an offense averaging 78.5 points per game at home this season. Ohio's most recent game stayed under the total but 5 of the prior 7 games had gone over the total. The Bobcats allowed 82.4 points per game in those five games and there really is no reason that tonight's game should be anything less than an absolute shootout! Both teams shoot the 3-ball very well and Ohio U's defense beyond the arc has struggled badly this season. The over is 6-2 this season in Akron's games against teams with a winning record. Also, in a line range of a pick'em to a -3 the Zips last 7 games resulted in 6 overs. The over is 7-3 this season in Ohio's games against teams with a winning record this season. Also, in games with a posted total in a range of 140 to 149.5 points, the Bobcats last 19 games resulted in 14 overs! |
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02-01-16 | Bulls +4.5 v. Jazz | Top | 96-105 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 21 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Chicago Bulls +4.5 @ Utah @ 9:05 ET - The Bulls got "blown out" at LA by the Clippers yesterday but a lot of it had to do with the Clips hitting a ridiculous 52% from three point land. In fact, the Bulls were outscored 51 to 15 from beyond the arc because the Clippers hit 17 of 32 threes. Chicago had won four of their past five road games before yesterday's disappointing result and I look for them to bounce right back at Utah tonight. The Jazz do have 4 wins in their past 7 games but they've beaten all the weak (or struggling) teams. The victories for Utah have come against Minnesota, Charlotte, Brooklyn, and the Lakers. None of those teams will be making the post-season come April. That said, Utah is certainly not on par with the recent opponents the Bulls have faced which has included all winning teams in their last eight games except for the Lakers. Look for battle tested Chicago to take advantage of an out-classed Jazz team that is over-priced here due to being on their home court. Even though Utah is playing with two days of rest they have only won 3 of 10 games this season in that spot and have a long-term 10-19 ATS mark with these parameters. As for the Bulls, they are 16-7 SU (and 14-9 ATS) in February games the past two seasons and they are focused on making the most of this lengthy road trip that began last week. The Bulls have excelled on long road trips in recent seasons and I would "chalk up" yesterday's game to insanely hot three point shooting for the Clippers. Chicago should bounce back tonight against a weaker foe that has struggled in recent games when stepping up in level of competition. The Jazz have feasted on weaker teams lately and this will lead to overconfidence tonight that shouldn't even be there for a Utah team with a losing record on the season. The Bulls jump on Utah early in this one and then hang on late is my prediction but I'll grab the points in case Chicago falls just short of the outright win I am predicting. |
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02-01-16 | NC State v. Florida State OVER 147 | Top | 73-77 | Win | 100 | 16 h 17 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAAB *10* Top Play OVER 147 in Florida State vs NC State @ 9 ET - The over is 6-2 in NC State's last 8 games. The Wolfpack have been shooting very well from beyond the arc in their past 4 games and this has helped lead the way to an average of 81 points per game in their last 4 games. The issue for NC State has been not getting enough stops on the defensive end. The Wolfpack have a 2-7 mark in ACC action and a big reason for that record is that NC State has allowed 80 points per game in their 7 conference losses. Trying to slow down Florida State tonight is certainly likely to be an issue. The Seminoles are averaging 84 points per game on 50% shooting in games on their home floor this season. Florida State already put up 85 points in a road win at NC State last month and the Noles are fully capable of another big performance with more hot three point shooting (9 of 17 in the first meeting) in tonight's contest on their home floor. The over is 4-2 the past three seasons and 37-25 long-term in NC State games where they are playing with home loss revenge. The Wolfpack lost 85-78 to the Seminoles last month and another high-scoring game is on tap tonight as I look for NC State to shoot much better from three point land in this match-up. They've been "feeling it" from beyond the arc in recent games as noted above and the FSU defense may not be all that great tonight as they "relax" against a team they've already beaten this season. |
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02-01-16 | Cavs v. Pacers +5 | 111-106 | Push | 0 | 14 h 21 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* Indiana Pacers +5 vs Cleveland @ 7:05 ET - The Cavs have been hot but the Pacers are offering a lot of line value here as a sizable home dog. Indiana is catching Cleveland at the right time to spring the upset as the Cavaliers are off back to back big wins. The Cavs last two games have come against a division rival and against one of the NBA's elite (San Antonio) in a revenge spot. With that said, it's difficult to maintain such a high emotional level in three straight games and I look for LeBron James and Company to fall short tonight. The Cavs are an ugly 7-14-1 ATS the past three seasons combined as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. Cleveland is only 18-27 ATS against divisional foes the last three seasons combined as they are consistently overvalued in these spots. The Cavs also are 7-11 ATS this season when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more. Indiana is off of back to back home wins but has a two-game road trip on deck so they know how critical this game is and, of course, have plenty of hatred toward the division rival Cavs. The home team has won each of the last five meetings between these teams and even if the Cavaliers do pull off the road upset here, the last four meetings have been decided by an average of just 4.5 points per game. Cleveland will have trouble getting much of a margin on the Pacers in Indiana. The Pacers have been at their best against the better teams in the league and that has led to a 16-5 ATS record this season in games against teams with a winning record. In divisional action this season Indiana is 7-2 ATS and I look for another solid cover tonight. |
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01-31-16 | Virginia Tech +9 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 71-90 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAAB *10* Top Play Virginia Tech Hokies +9 @ Pittsburgh @ 6:30 ET - The Panthers are off of a loss to Clemson so, certainly, they will be looking to bounce back. However, the Hokies are known for playing Pitt very tough and Virginia Tech, despite their recent straight-up losses, are on an ATS streak because the Hokies continue to play everyone tough. Certainly the tight losses can be tough on a team's moxie but Virginia Tech did beat Virginia earlier this month and they also won at Georgia Tech as a big dog two weeks ago. The point is that the Hokies have truly thrived at being competitive each and every game and have a few hard-fought upset wins to show for it as well. Virginia Tech is 7-1 ATS in the month of January and that means they have been giving headaches to ACC competition. Pittsburgh is just 1-5 ATS this season in games where the posted total is a range of 140 to 149.5 points. The Panthers may struggle to put away a Hokies team that has shot 45% or better from the field in 4 of their past 5 games. Also, Virginia Tech will take advantage of a Pittsburgh team that has lost two of three games and is starting to feel the pressure. You know the pressure is mounting when a team is putting too much pressure on itself and the shooting percentage falls. The Panthers have been held to 39.3% or less from the field in 3 straight games and 4 of their last 5 games. Also, the once vaunted Panthers defense has allowed 47% or better from the field in six of their past seven games. Pittsburgh is on a 12-28 ATS run in home games and they once again are over-priced on their home floor. We'll grab the generous points. |
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01-31-16 | Celtics v. Magic +4.5 | Top | 114-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Orlando Magic +4.5 vs Boston @ 6:05 ET - This one definitely fits the description of an "ugly dog" theory as Orlando certainly is not attractive at all. The Magic have lost 12 of their past 13 games. Also, Orlando has failed to cover 12 of their past 14 games. Boston comes into this game having covered 7 of their past 10 games and the Celtics are riding an overall 5 game winning streak. The key to this play though is that no matter how hot one team has been and no matter how cold another one is, these are still professional and prideful athletes playing this game they love. That said, after getting embarrassed at Boston on Friday night, you can bet that the Magic are going to make the most of this opportunity to "return the favor" on their home floor on Sunday. The home teams have absolutely dominated in this series and, even if Orlando doesn't manage to get the outright win on their home floor, I look for them to lose by no more than one possession in this game. Even though the Magic have been losing games most of them have been ultra competitive and it is going to be hard for Boston to pull away in this game as they are going to face a fired up Orlando team. Prior to getting embarrassed by the Celtics, 7 of the prior 8 losses for the Magic had come by a single digit margin. They have been on the cusp of getting back into the winners' circle and I look for Orlando to do just that tonight in this revenge spot. But I recommend grabbing the points just in case the Magic do fall a little short of the upset win. Orlando is 8-3 ATS in divisional games this season. Boston is 2-4 ATS this season when they enter a game on a winning streak of three games or more. |
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01-31-16 | Wichita State v. Evansville OVER 138.5 | Top | 78-65 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAAB *10* Top Play OVER 138 at Evansville vs Wichita State @ 4 ET - The Purple Aces have proven time and time again that they are absolutely capable of shooting "lights out" especially when they are on their home floor. Evansville lost at Wichita State early this month and that game stayed under the total. However, the Aces lost by just three points to the Shockers and Evansville has the confidence on their home floor to push the pace a little more. I look for the Purple Aces, who are averaging 82 points per game at home this season, to push the pace in this one as they look to exploit the friendly confines of their home arena. Evansville is averaging 83 points per game at home this season and has shot 53.4% overall at home with a sizzling 39.2% accuracy rate from beyond the arc. This is a big game in Missouri Valley Conference action and the Shockers certainly will be ready to go as well. Wichita State is averaging 74.5 points per game this season and the Shockers have averaged 72.5 points per game in their last 6 meetings with the Aces. Evansville has really closed the gap in terms of talent level between these teams and that's why the recent series dominance of Wichita State is unlikely to continue. These teams first meeting was decided by just 3 points and I look for another close game here and one that is played at a fast pace as the Purple Aces will be hustling down the floor and jacking up threes - something they excel at. With that said, this game should easily eclipse the total! |
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01-31-16 | Bulls +5.5 v. Clippers | 93-120 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* Chicago Bulls +5.5 @ LA Clippers @ 3:35 ET - E'Twaun Moore got the start as he took Tony Snell's spot at small forward in the lineup in Thursday's game. It was evident that Moore definitely played a role in speeding up Chicago's pace in their 114-91 blowout win over the Lakers. That was the beginning of a seven-game road trip for the Bulls and Chicago comes into this one well-rested as that Thursday game has been their only game in the past 5 days. With four off days in their last five and with "only Utah" on deck I look for the Bulls to push the tempo here against the Clippers. The Clips have been trying to get by on defense as they continue to deal with absence of Griffin. On offense the Clippers have relied on the hot shooting of Paul and Redick. The issue about that relating to today's game is that Bulls guard Jimmy Butler has done a great job defending Redick and that has limited Redick to some ugly shooting in recent meetings. Look for the solid defense of the Bulls to be a difference maker here as the Clips offense will struggle to score enough to put away a Bulls team that has been on a scoring surge in road games. Chicago has averaged 107.4 points in their past ten road games. The Bulls are a great value getting the big points here at LA. The Clippers are on an 8-17 ATS run as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. Also, this season, when off of a win by a margin of 10 points or more, the Clippers have gone 4-9 ATS in their next game. Chicago has straight-up marks of 4-2 this season (and 23-10 the past three seasons) when they are playing with two days of rest. The rested Bulls are a great value as a sizable road dog in this spot. |
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01-31-16 | Maryland v. Ohio State +5 | 66-61 | Push | 0 | 5 h 39 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAAB *8* Ohio State Buckeyes +5 vs Maryland @ 1 ET - The Buckeyes are seeking revenge and they are catching the Terrapins at the perfect time to get it. Maryland is off of a key Big Ten win over Iowa on Thursday night and now face an Ohio State team that is ready to atone for an absolute beatdown (100-65) that the Buckeyes suffered at Maryland two weeks ago. As you can see from that score, nothing went right for the Buckeyes that night but they are now back home where they've gone 11-3 this season. Also, in terms of ATS records, the Buckeyes are a perfect 6-0 ATS in home games with a posted total in a range of 135 to 139.5 points so far this season. Going further back that record is 12-3 ATS the past three seasons and 38-17 ATS long-term. Also, when playing with revenge for a blowout loss of 20 points or more, Ohio State has an impressive long-term record of 8-2 ATS. Maryland's spread-covering victory over the Hawkeyes was just their 2nd ATS win in their past 6 games (the other was the blowout of the Buckeyes). With that said, the Terps haven't exactly been on top of their game of late and I see strong home dog value here with a Buckeyes team fully capable of turning up the heat on defense in this one. Ohio State is fired up about erasing the bad taste of giving up 100 points to the Terrapins two weeks ago and I look for a huge effort from the Buckeyes here and that means great line value with the home dog points. |
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01-31-16 | Villanova v. St. John's OVER 136.5 | 68-53 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 34 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NCAAB *8* OVER 136.5 at St John's vs Villanova @ Noon ET - Villanova will be fired up after their first loss in conference action in over a year. Imposing their will against a rebuilding St John's team that is still seeking it's first conference win of the season should not be a problem for the Wildcats. However, I am certainly not fond of laying 20 points on the road no matter what the situation. What I do like in this situation is the over. The Red Storm will not be able to slow the frenetic pace that the Wildcats will employ in this game. Last season the Cats averaged 97.5 points per game against St John's and I look for this game to be another case of the Red Storm just being "along for the ride" per se. The Red Storm have had some ugly performances on offense of late. However, St John's has made at least 37.5% of their threes in four of their last five games. The best shot the Red Storm have at hanging around in this game is to get hot from beyond the arc and knock down some threes because Villanova can be expected to get some easy twos throughout this game with plenty of points in transition and plenty of open looks as St John's does not match up well with the Wildcats. The over is 22-6 in Villanova's last 28 road games! St John's, when off of a game where they were held to 60 points or less, has gone 11-4 to the over the past three seasons. |
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