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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-26-16 | Texas-Arlington +2.5 v. Fordham | Top | 67-63 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
Top Play Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #531 Saturday - 10* Top Play UT-Arlington Mavericks (+) @ Fordham Rams @ 5 ET - This line has moved from UT-Arlington being the 2.5 point favorite to Fordham now being the 2.5 point choice. Of course this 5 point move has opened up phenomenal value on the Mavericks. UT-Arlington does not have the record that the Rams have so far on this young season but the Mavs have played the tougher schedule. Even though Fordham is from the Atlantic Ten and UT-Arlington is from the SunBelt, the Rams are expected to finish near the bottom of the A-10 as they lost their top two scorers from last season while the Mavericks are the clear choice for the #1 spot in the SBC as virtually everyone is back (including all 5 starters and key reserves) from last season's team. The Mavericks are on a 14-6 ATS run in non-conference game and are 9-2 ATS the last 11 times they have been a road dog of 3 points or less. Fordham is on a 19-36 ATS run in November games. 10* Top Play UT-Arlington plus the points on Saturday in very early evening action |
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11-25-16 | Raptors v. Bucks OVER 209.5 | Top | 105-99 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
Top Play Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #715/716 Friday - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Bucks vs Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - We are being offered significant line value here as this total has dropped a little early Friday morning and the fact is the over is 8-1 in the Raptors last 9 games and there is no reason to expect that trend to stop here. Toronto has scored at least 112 points in 7 of their 8 road games this season. They're visiting Milwaukee and the Bucks are off of a low-scoring home win but previously had scored at least 106 points in 6 of their first 7 home games this season. As you can see, the Raptors are a small road favorite here and a 112-106 type game certainly would not be a surprise and, given the numbers above, is actually quite likely! Milwaukee shoots much better at home than on the road while Toronto has shot better on the road compared to at home this season. This game is truly the perfect set-up for an over! When the Raptors are off of a non-conference game they have gone 6-1 to the over this season and 41-26 to the over the past 3 seasons combined. Toronto is also 7-1 to the over this season on the road while the Bucks are 7-1 to the over at home this season. With each team off of a win, they may overlook the defensive shortcomings that played a role in the Raptors losing 4 of 5 before Wednesday's win and the Bucks losing 5 of 6 before Monday's win. The result will be a fast-paced affair with plenty of open looks. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee Friday |
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11-25-16 | Southern Illinois +16 v. Minnesota | Top | 45-57 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
BLACK FRIDAY Best Bet - Rickenbach CBB Game #735 Friday - 10* Top Play Southern Illinois Salukis (+) @ Minnesota Golden Gophers @ 8 ET - Minnesota is off to a 5-0 start this season and I like the direction the Golden Gophers are headed. I already used them once this season (as a Free Pick) and cashed in easily. However, Minnesota seems to have an over-inflated pointspread here. This is not a good situational spot for them. The Golden Gophers are off of a hard-fought win over an SEC foe (Arkansas) and they have a tough ACC foe (Florida State) on deck followed by another SEC foe (Vanderbilt). With that said, the Salukis are not exactly commanding a lot of Minnesota's attention and I like what Southern Illinois is doing early this season. They did lose some key talent from last year's team but Rodriguez, Fletcher, and Vincent are all returning players and they have combined to give the Salukis solid backcourt play. The frontcourt was a big concern outside of the 6'7 senior forward O'Brien. However, not only is O'Brien off to a big start both with scoring and rebounding, the addition of junior college transfer Thik Bol has proven to be a huge addition to the frontcourt. Though he is "only" 6'8 he is a proven shot-blocking machine (102 blocks last year and averaged 4.9 blocks per game the prior season) and Bol has come in and averaged 9 rebounds and 2.8 blocks per game so far this season. This means the Salukis are a little more "complete" than expected early this season and couple that with the fact that they have shot the ball very well (51.2%) early this season and I expect Southern Illinois to stay within single digits of Minnesota throughout this game. In games with a posted total in the 150 to 159.5 range, the Salukis are on a long-term 5-1 ATS run. The Golden Gophers are only 17-30 SU (and 19-28 ATS) in their last 47 games against teams with a winning record. Yes, the Big Ten is tougher than the Missouri Valley Conference but this line is simply "too much" as Barry Hinson is the reigning MVC Coach of the Year last year and has his team ready to compete and make up for a loss to Arkansas on the 14th that was the Salukis only ugly loss so far this season. They know this is a "big game" opportunity for them while the Golden Gophers simply aren't highly motivated here. That keeps this one much closer than many are expecting and yes I know Minny has been playing solid defense early this season but I expect them to be flat here. 10* Top Play SOUTHERN ILLINOIS Friday evening |
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11-24-16 | New Mexico v. Virginia Tech OVER 153 | Top | 72-92 | Win | 100 | 6 h 50 m | Show |
RARE Tourney Top - Rickenbach CBB Game #525/526 - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Virginia Tech Hokies vs New Mexico Lobos @ Titan Gym in the Wooden Classic in Fullerton, CA @ 4:30 ET - Both of these teams are 3-0 but have played weak schedules. When this happens, a team's defense tends to relax as it's only natural because, when you're winning, it is easy to just keep rolling along and overlook any defensive shortcomings. That's because, to this point, they haven't cost you anything because you simply keep on winning due to facing out-classed foes. The significance in that here is that both these teams returned plenty of firepower this season in terms of returning starters and big scorers but both teams have had issues with being lax on the defensive end in recent seasons. Virginia Tech is particularly known for this and New Mexico is certainly known for playing a "run and gun" style as well. That said, the fact this total has dropped down from as high as a 158 to as low as a 153 is now offering us fantastic value on the over. The Hokies are 7-2 to the over on a neutral court in recent seasons and also 7-1 to the over in games where the total is in a range of 150 to 159.5 points. Also, New Mexico is 10-6 to the over when they are off of a game where they allowed 60 points or less. After holding in-state rival New Mexico State to only 59 points in their most recent game, look for the Lobos defense to now fall flat in this one after the big rivalry win. 10* OVER the total in the Virginia Tech game Thursday |
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11-23-16 | Old Dominion +16 v. Louisville | Top | 62-68 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
CBB Game of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Game #759 Wednesday - 10* Top Play Old Dominion Monarchs (+) vs Louisville Cardinals @ in Battle 4 Atlantis @ Imperial Arena in Nassau, Bahamas @ 9:30 ET - Louisville is a top ten team in the nation and the Cardinals have absolutely dominated their first three games of the season. That really helps us here in terms of line value because this is not a good spot for the Cardinals to run up a big score. The Monarchs like to play a methodical style on offense and they rely on their "length" on defense and they also crash the boards well. As you can see from the low total posted on this game, not a lot of points are expected in this one and I look for Old Dominion to keep this game much closer than many are expecting. The Monarchs did suffer a pair of key losses (Trey Freeman and Aaron Bacote) from last season's team but they've got some solid newcomers in the mix for this season and have good size in both the frontcourt and backcourt. Keep in mind this was a 25-win team last season and Jeff Jones is a veteran coach (entered this season 427-326 in 24 years!) and he is now 72-39 at Old Dominion as he works into his 4th season there. Louisville, of course, is well-coached under Rick Pitino. However, this will be the first game they get forced into really having to score significant points in the half-court game because Old Dominion certainly is not going to let them run wild in transition. This is a key because the Cardinals lost their top three scorers from last season's team. The Cards are 0-4 ATS L4 against Conference USA opponents while the Monarchs are 3-0 ATS L3 as a neutral court dog of 12.5 to 15 points. That's a combined 7-0 ATS mark that favored Old Dominion based on the opening number on this game. Now that the spread has moved even higher, there is even more value with a team that truly is a "dangerous dog" in a situation like this. One final note on this, both teams have had significant time off since their most recent game but that favors the underdog as, if shots aren't falling due to the layoff and each team has some rust, it also helps to keep this game closer than the inflated number. 10* OLD DOMINION |
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11-23-16 | Celtics v. Nets OVER 214 | Top | 111-92 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #713/714 Wednesday - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Brooklyn Nets vs Boston Celtics @ 7:35 ET - The Celtics are on a long under streak but the Nets are on a long over streak so something has to give here. The way this one has been set up, and the fact that Brooklyn is at home and will be happy to dictate the pace here, has me expecting a ton of points in this one. The Nets have allowed at least 124 points in 4 straight games! These teams combined for 239 points earlier this season when they met in Boston and a similar result in Brooklyn would not surprise. The Celtics have a much tougher match-up hosting San Antonio coming up Friday so I would not be surprised to see Boston completely willing to "run and gun" with the Nets in this one. The over is a perfect 4-0 this season when Brooklyn is off of a loss by a margin of 10 points or more in their prior game. The over is 6-2 in the Nets last 8 home games with a posted total of 210 points or more. Look for more of the same on Wednesday night. 10* OVER the total in Brooklyn |
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11-23-16 | Grizzlies -4.5 v. 76ers | 104-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #709 Wednesday - 8* Memphis Grizzlies (-) @ Philadelphia 76'ers @ 7:05 ET - The Sixers have been playing well at home but that is helping to keep this line lower than it should be. Keep in mind, the Grizzlies are a solid team and they are a defensive-minded team. That strong D of Memphis is going to be the difference-maker here. The Grizzlies have won and covered 5 straight games and they've allowed an average of only 75 points per game in their last 3 games! The Sixers are off of a 101-94 win over Miami and that marked the first time this entire season that Philadelphia has allowed less than 102 points in a game! As you can see, there is a big difference in the defensive prowess of these two clubs. Also, the 76'ers are only 1-5 ATS this season against teams with a winning record. Also, I want to mention a couple of straight-up records here because the line is rather small on this game. The Sixers are an unbelievably bad 3-83 SU in their last 86 games against teams with a winning record. The Grizzlies are 80-27 SU in the last 107 games where they were the favorite. In other words, the road fave has great odds (163-30, 85%) of winning this game and, that said, I'll gladly lay the small number with the Grizzlies. 8* MEMPHIS |
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11-23-16 | St. John's +7.5 v. Michigan State | 62-73 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #757 Wednesday - 8* St John's Red Storm vs Michigan State Spartans in Battle 4 Atlantis @ Imperial Arena in Nassau, Bahamas @ 7 ET - The Red Storm went 8-24 last year. The Spartans, as usual, are ranked as one of the top basketball teams in the country. That said, this opening line of 6.5 had to look funny to most casual observers. Of course the key here is that you and I aren't "casual observers" and truly there is value in grabbing the points in this match-up as it has already moved up to 7.5 - no surprise there. The Spartans are a quality team (of course) but, even with a 6 for 6 performance from downtown for Eron Harris (scored 31 points) they only snuck by Florida Gulf Coast by a single point and that says a lot right there! St John's is in their 2nd year under head coach (and former Red Storm star) Chris Mullin. There can be a lot of improvement in year 2 under a new coach and with the strong newcomers they have brought in, this Red Storm team is likely on a faster than expected upward trajectory. The fact they are off of their first loss of the season is giving us even more value here as St John's is very hungry for this shot to knock off a highly ranked foe on a neutral floor. The biggest issue for the Red Storm is depth but they truly are very talented and got a big boost with newcomers Marcus LoVett and Shamorie Ponds. The depth won't be such an issue here as it's early in the season and they are playing for just the 2nd time in 10 days. Michigan State is actually the team that could be a little "stretched out" here as this their 3rd game in 5 days. Grab the points and look for the Red Storm to be in this one all the way. A lot of talent and Mullin is making believers out of this team. 8* ST JOHN'SÂ |
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11-22-16 | Pelicans +8 v. Hawks | 112-94 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Tuesday - 8* New Orleans Pelicans (+) @ Atlanta Hawks @ 7:35 ET - Many will be looking at the Hawks here since they are back home where they've played well and they are looking to respond off of back to back losses. However, part of the problem for Atlanta has been poor point guard play. It has gotten so bad in fact that Hawks PG Dennis Schroder was benched in the third quarter of Atlanta's most recent game after missing all eight of his shots. The Hawks are going to have an issue in terms of matching up at the point guard position for this one because the Pelicans Jrue Holiday has been fantastic on both ends of the floor since he returned to the team two games ago. The New Orleans point man had been tending to a family matter but certainly has come back fully focused and ready to go as he has helped lead the Pelicans to victory in each of his first two games back. Look for Holiday to again be a difference-maker tonight and the Hawks could get caught looking ahead to a match-up with an Eastern Conference foe tomorrow as they will be traveling to Indiana to face the Pacers and begin a lengthy road trip. Atlanta has had a bad habit of overlooking "lesser" teams this season and has gone 2-4 ATS against teams with a losing record. Conversely, the Pelicans have been at their best against "quality" foes and have gone 5-2 ATS against teams with a winning record. Big value with the big points in this one. 8* NEW ORLEANS PELICANS Tuesday evening |
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11-22-16 | Toledo v. Middle Tennessee -3.5 | 70-80 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher Tuesday - Rickenbach CBB Game #520 Tuesday - 8* Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders (-) vs Toledo Rockets @ 7:30 ET - The Rockets have burned me twice early this season as they beat the spread against me by a point and a half the first time and a single point the 2nd time. The third time will be the charm as they are on the road to face a Middle Tennessee State team that beat them by 8 points last season on a neutral floor. The Rockets are a MAC team that really hasn't improved from last season while the Blue Raiders are a C-USA team that will battle UAB for the top spot in the 14-team conference this season. The key to the Raiders further improvement this season (won 25 games last season) is how quickly Arkansas transfer 6'8 Jacorey Williams "fit in" with the team. Surprisingly, Williams has already proven to be a great addition and he combines with guard Giddy Potts and senior forward Reggie Upshaw to give Middle Tennessee State a "Big Three" that is tough on the opposition. The Blue Raiders are in a great spot here to come up big as they are at home and off of an embarrassing loss. They lost to Tennessee State as MTSU simply "slipped up" and did not shoot the ball well nor did they defend well in that game. You can bet they will now bring a huge effort tonight and, keep in mind, the Blue Raiders had scored an average of 94.5 points per game in their first two games plus they held the opposition to under 43% from the field in each of their first two games. Middle Tennessee State is 10-4 ATS their last 14 games against teams averaging 77 points or more per game. Toledo, given those same parameters, is an ugly 2-8 ATS in recent seasons and a poor 24-43 ATS long-term. The point is, the Rockets won't be able to keep with the Blue Raiders in this one as MTSU bounces back with a huge scoring night at home. 8* Middle Tennessee State Tuesday evening |
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11-21-16 | Oklahoma State v. Connecticut UNDER 154.5 | Top | 98-90 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
Top TV Total Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #741/742 Monday - 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Connecticut Huskies vs Oklahoma State Cowboys @ 9 ET - This total has risen in ridiculous jumps today and I am happy to fade it. After opening up at 146.5 this total has risen to as high as 155.5 and I completely understand the move because Oklahoma State is averaging a ridiculous 107 points per game this season. Keep in mind, the Cowboys have only played 3 games this season and they haven't faced a team that is anywhere close to the quality of this UConn team. The Huskies also are known for playing solid defense. Connecticut has allowed an average of only 64.3 points per game this season and last season the Huskies allowed only 63.5 points per game on the full season. That was good for 14th in the nation. The fact is that they are a defensive-minded team and so far this season they have struggled on the offensive end where they are averaging only 61.3 points per game. That sets this one up to be a much tighter, low-scoring match-up than what many are expecting here. Oklahoma State was 10th in the Big 12 last season for scoring as they averaged only 66.5 points per game and they allowed 67.1 points per game last season which was good enough for 2nd in the Big 12. This total has been inflated by the unusual early season stats for the Cowboys and we can step in now and take advantage of that. This total, as noted above, has gotten run all the way up into the 150s and, keep in mind, even when totals have been in the 140 to 149.5 range for the Cowboys the under has gone 12-3 (80%) the last 3 seasons. The Huskies, when off of a non-conference game, have seen the under go 14-7 (67%) the last 3 seasons. 10* UNDER the total in the UConn game Monday night |
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11-21-16 | Celtics v. Wolves OVER 208 | Top | 99-93 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
Top Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #713/714 Monday - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Timberwolves vs Boston Celtics @ 8:05 ET - The Timberwolves are off of one of the ugliest games you'll ever see as they lost 93 to 71 at Memphis on Saturday. Look for Minnesota to respond in a big way as they are back at home for this one and they have averaged 110.5 points per game in their home games so far this season. The OVER is 11-7 when the T-wolves are off of a game where they were held to 85 points or less. Also, when off of an upset loss as a favorite (Minny was small fave Saturday), they have gone 13-5 to the OVER the past 3 seasons. The Timberwolves are hosting Boston and the Celtics are off of an ugly win (94 to 92) at Detroit Saturday. Though the C's have short poorly in recent games, the Minnesota defense has allowed 50.5% from the field in their last 7 games prior to take advantage to facing a poor 76'ers team and an offensively-challenged Grizzlies team. In other words, look for the Timberwolves to resume giving up big points tonight especially with the added focus on the offensive end after Saturday's embarrassing 71-point effort. The OVER is 3-1 in the last 4 meetings between these teams and Boston shot 50% from the field and averaged 117.5 points per game in the two meetings last season. More of the same here. 10* Top Play OVER in Minnesota Monday evening |
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11-21-16 | George Washington v. Georgia -4 | 73-81 | Win | 102 | 5 h 23 m | Show | |
TV Blowout Smash - Rickenbach CBB Game #762 Monday - 8* Georgia Bulldogs (-) vs George Washington Colonials @ CBE Hall of Fame Classic @ Spring Center in Kansas City, MO @ 7 ET - The Bulldogs already have a loss this season as they lost their season opener (against Clemson) while the Colonials are a perfect 3-0 this season. However, George Washington seriously hasn't played "anybody" yet this season and the fact that the Colonials have only made 41.1% of their shots from the field (considering the teams they've faced) is scary when you consider they're finally stepping up in class for this game. The Bulldogs are a team on the rise under head coach Mark Fox and even though they are off of a game where they faced an over-matched foe, it is still good news that they shot 52.8% from the field in that game. Note that the Colonials also faced an over-matched foe but they only shot 35.6% from the field and that was against Arkansas-Pine Bluff! That team is projected to be one of the worst teams in one of the worst conferences (Southwestern Athletic) in all of Division I college basketball. Look for the Bulldogs to shoot the ball much better than the Colonials in this one and they also have the added edge of already being battle-tested early this season. The fact that Georgia already has a loss (to Clemson) under their belt is a good thing here. George Washington is 3-7 SU (and 2-8 ATS) in their last 10 against SEC competition. The past two seasons, the Bulldogs are 9-4 (SU and ATS) when they are off of a game in which they scored 80 points or more. Off of an 84-78 win, the offense stays hot here for the Dawgs. 8* GEORGIA early Monday evening |
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11-20-16 | NC State v. Creighton OVER 158 | Top | 94-112 | Win | 100 | 9 h 0 m | Show |
Top Total Smash - Rickenbach CBB Game #559/560 Sunday - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Creighton Blue Jays vs NC State Wolfpack @ 8:30 ET in San Juan, Puerto Rico - This total opened up at a 160.5 and now has dropped to a 158. Of course this is because the markets see a total in the 160 range and immediately think under. However, this total was big for a reason. The Blue Jays are known for their emphasis on the 3-ball and they've been knocking down shots like crazy from beyond the arc this season. Creighton is hitting 48.5% of their three pointers this season. The weakness for the Blue Jays is rebounding and interior defense. That spells trouble against an NC State team tha thas some solid size inside and that has shot the ball extremely well (60%+) from inside the arc in their last two games. The Wolfpack and Blue Jays are both brimming with confidence as each team has won all 3 of their games and NC State is averaging 84 points per game and Creighton is averaging 90.3 points per game early this season. The over is 5-1 in Blue Jays neutral court games and 8-3 in the Wolfpack's neutral court games. I'll gladly test that combined 13-4 over mark in thise one. 10* OVER the total in Creighton game Sunday |
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11-20-16 | Pacers +10 v. Thunder | 115-111 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #505 Sunday - 8* Indiana Pacers (+) @ Oklahoma City Thunder @ 7:05 ET - With Paul George still dealing with an ankle injury it is no surprise that this line is double digits. However, the Thunder (in my opinion) continue to be over-rated and they're facing an Indiana team that is going to bring a huge effort Sunday evening no matter who is on the floor. The Pacers are off of an embarrassing home loss to the Suns and it was their 4th loss by 17 points or more on the season. What happened after their first 3? The Pacers got the win every single time. Now, I am not saying they're going to get the outright win here but I am saying that Indiana is going to give a tremendous effort here and I expect that to be enough to keep them "hanging around" in this game all the way through before eventually coming up just short and losing by single digits. The Thunder are off of an easy home win over Brooklyn so I would not be surprised to see a let up here and, keep in mind, OKC had failed to cover 4 of their 5 prior games. Oklahoma City is on a 6-14 ATS run and could easily get caught looking ahead to a Western road swing that starts Tuesday for OKC. The road team won both meetings last season and this looks like another dangerous spot for the Thunder as the road team gets it done once again. 8* INDIANA PACERS Sunday |
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11-19-16 | Mavs v. Magic OVER 178.5 | Top | 87-95 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #705/706 Saturday - 10* Top Play OVER 178.5 in Orlando Magic vs Dallas Mavericks @ 7:05 ET - Both these teams have had some pathetic performances on offense recently so this total has, of course, dropped from 184 all the way down to a 178.5 as of late morning Saturday. That means it's go time for me in this one as both teams, off of recent embarrassing performances, will be opening things up offensively in this one and I seriously doubt that either team will again be held below 90 points. Yes I know that Dirk Nowitzki is still hurt for Dallas and that the Mavericks have some other injury issues. However, these are still NBA level players that are capable of scoring the ball and let's take a look at these two defenses. Dallas, before yesterday's ugly loss at Memphis, had allowed at least 90 points in 9 of their first 10 games this season. The Magic, before back to back "snooze fests" had allowed an average of 104.1 points per game in their first 10 games. What this line move is saying is that the odds makers were dead wrong with the total they set and, trust me, the odds makers were aware of all the variables just like we are. It doesn't take much offensive efficiency to get over a total this low and I am all "over" (literally!) this one! 10* OVER the total in Orlando |
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11-19-16 | Toledo v. Wright State +3 | 82-78 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 59 m | Show | |
No Doubt Blowout Rout - Rickenbach CBB Game #726 Saturday - 8* Wright State Raiders (+) vs Toledo Rockets @ 7 ET - Toledo is coming off a non-covering win against Youngstown State. That is the same Penguins team that went 6-12 in the Horizon League last season and is projected to be dead last in the 10-team league this season. That said, a 5-point win over the Pens even though the game was in Toledo, doesn't bode well for the Rockets as they now are on the road to face a Wright State team that went 13-5 in Horizon League action last season and tied for 2nd place. The Raiders have a new coach in Scott Nagy and I already like what he's doing with this team that has some key go-to scorers as they already had Mark Alstork in place but Justin Mitchell and Grant Benzinger also have put up double digits in points early this season. The Raiders also got a big boost with the return of 6'8 senior Steven Davis. He missed last season but is already averaging 21 points this season! Coach Nagy had a great pedigree with his results at South Dakota State as he helped make them a Division 1 team and they made it to the NCAA Tourney 3 of the last 5 seasons and the NIT Tourney in one of the other two seasons. With the line move on this from a pick'em to now being able to get the Raiders at +3 on their home floor, there was no question about me pulling the trigger in this home dog spot. Wright State is 19-10 SU at home the past 2+ seasons and the Raiders are 7-3 SU after a game in which they scored 80 or more points. The Rockets are 4-8 ATS when off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more. Toledo was also very fortunate to get the cash in their opener against St Joe's as they were down 5 points very late in that game. The point is there is great line value with this home dog. 8* WRIGHT STATE RAIDERS Saturday |
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11-18-16 | Suns +7.5 v. Pacers | Top | 116-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Friday - 10* Top Play Phoenix Suns (+) @ Indiana Pacers @ 7:05 ET - The Suns have lost three straight games and allowed 120 points or more in all three defeats. The Phoenix players, of course, are well aware of this and fully focused on bouncing back on Friday and they are in the right place at the right time. The Suns have actually won 8 of their last 11 visits to Indiana and they catch the Pacers off of a huge win over the defending NBA champion Cavaliers. The Pacers caught a break as LeBron James sat out the game for Cleveland for rest. Speaking of breaks, the Indiana strength of schedule has not been as strong as what the Suns have faced so far this season and that also is leading to line value in this spot for Phoenix. The Suns have shot at least 49.4% from the field in 3 straight road games. The Pacers had shot only 41.7% from the field in their 3 games prior to a strong effort against the Cavaliers. After that big win, look for Indiana to fall flat here in what is anticipated to be a high scoring game. Note that the Pacers are 0-7 ATS this season in games with a posted total of 210 or more. The Suns are 4-1 ATS this season after a loss by 10 points or more in their prior game. The road team responds in this one and catches the home team in a flat spot. 10* PHOENIX SUNS Friday |
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11-18-16 | Georgia State +18.5 v. Purdue | 56-64 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
Big Ten Network Smash - Rickenbach CBB Game #521 Friday - 8* Georgia State Panthers (+) @ Purdue Boilermakers @ 7 ET - Georgia State has a lot of connections to basketball in Indiana. Panthers head coach Ron Hunter was a coach at IUPUI for many years. Also, star senior forward Jeremy Hollowell was heavily recruited in the Indiana area. The 6'8 low-post player will be a key to "evening out" the match-up inside against the Purdue big men. The biggest key to this play is the way the Panthers mix up defenses and keep opponents off-balance with a mix of full-court pressure and match-up zones. Yes, I know that Georgia State just got walloped at Auburn but they were only down by 5 at the half in that game and the biggest issue for the Panthers in that game is that they simply had a poor shooting game. Look for coach Hunter to have his team ready to respond here in s a game that means an awful lot to him with his Indiana connections. Though Purdue is looking to bounce back off of a loss, keep in mind that the Boilermakers just lost to the defending national champs. Purdue put an awful lot (physically and mentally) into that game and though they should have enough left-over to get the win here, I certainly don't see it being enough for the cover. Look for the Panthers to "hang around" in this one before ultimately losing the game by no more than a dozen points. 8* GEORGIA STATE Friday |
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11-17-16 | 76ers v. Wolves OVER 212 | Top | 86-110 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
TNT Top Play - Rickenbach NBA Game #707/708 Thursday - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Timberwolves vs Philadelphia 76'ers @ 8:05 ET - The Sixers rested their leading scorer, Joel Embiid last night (a home win over Washington) so he's ready to go tonight. Also, Jahlil Okafor will get some action again tonight after playing in last night's game. That means the Sixers are in good shape at the center position for this one. The key to this play is that it is a match-up of two of the youngest teams in the league. The younger players are known for taking time to jell as a unit and their inexperience results in not rotating properly on defense, not making switches when they should, etc. The result is generally wild, high-scoring games and it should come as no surprise that yesterday's win over the Wizards resulted in Philadelphia's 7th over in their last 9 games. As for Minnesota, they've gone over the total in 5 straight games. The Timberwolves are fired up off of a tight home loss to Charlotte Tuesday so there is no doubt they will be ready to push the pace and avoid turnovers as they play a much "cleaner" game on offense than they did against the Bobcats. That should be easy against a Sixers team that is one of the worst defensive teams in the league. By the way, the T-wolves are right there with Philly in terms of being among the worst teams on defense in the league. The over is 16-9 in Sixers road games where they are a dog of 9.5 to 12 points. Also, the 76'ers are a perfect 3-0 to the over against teams with a losing record this season. The Timberwolves are 3-0 to the over against non-conference opponents this season and I look for a 6th straight over for Minny tonight. 10* OVER in Minnesota Thursday |
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11-17-16 | Temple +4 v. Massachusetts | Top | 67-70 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
Top Insider - Rickenbach CBB Game #715 Thursday - 10* Top Play Temple Owls (+) @ Massachusetts Minutemen @ 7 ET - These are former Atlantic Ten rivals and though the players have changed the coaches can certainly remember the last time they met. Fran Dunphy is now in his 11th season as head coach at Temple and Derek Kellogg is entering his 9th season at Massachusetts. The Owls lost to the Minutemen in an A-10 Quarterfinals game in March of 2013 the last time these two coaches squared off. It is time for a little payback for Dunphy and his team comes in "fighting mad" off of their loss to New Hampshire on Monday. Certainly UMass comes into this game hungry as well since they are off of a loss to Ole Miss. However, as is typically the case with Massachusetts, they are all about the offense and still not getting the job done on the defensive end. The Owls allowed only 67.6 points per game last season and was good enough for 4th in the AAC last season. UMass allowed 75.8 points per game last season and that ranked them very near rock bottom in the Atlantic 10. This season the Minutemen have already allowed 83 points per game whereas the Owls got involved in a wild first game that did go to OT but in their 2nd game they held a good New Hampshire team (one of the best in America East) to only 57 points. Though 1-1 on the season (with one good offensive showing and one good defensive showing), Temple is expected to put it all together in this revenge spot. The Owls defense and their size advantage in the frontcourt (with more depth too) to be the difference maker in this one. After a game where Temple has allowed 60 points or less they've gone 21-6 straight-up and, after a game where they've scored 60 points or less, the Owls have gone 13-4 straight-up. That's a combined 34-10 angle in play here as they are actually getting a few points in this match-up since it's at UMass. The Minutemen are 6-12 SU (and 5-10 ATS) when off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more and, once again, their defense does them in at home tonight. 10* TEMPLE Thursday |
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11-17-16 | Northern Iowa +4 v. Arizona State | 82-63 | Win | 100 | 5 h 12 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Game #745 Thursday - 8* Northern Iowa Panthers (+) vs Arizona State Sun Devils at the San Juan Tipoff in Orlando, FL @ 4:30 ET - This line has gone from Arizona State -1 all the way to a -4 as of gameday morning. This is offering significant line value on Northern Iowa. Keep in mind that, even though the Panthers had some significant personnel losses from last season's team, the Sun Devils lost five players (Atwood, Blakes, Goodman, Jacobsen, and Spight) that combined for 43.3 points per game. Also 4 of those 5 averaged at least 4 rebounds per game as well. The big key here is that head coach Bobby Hurley is only in his 2nd year with the Sun Devils whiereas the Panthers Ben Jacobson has been at Northern Iowa now for more than a decade. Though they lost three starters, the Panthers do return a couple of key starters, a couple of key reserves, and they also added to the roster with four freshmen who redshirted last season plus added four others who are not true freshmen. This is a quality program that won 23 games last season and truly is not in a rebuild mode whereas Arizona State is only in the 2nd season under Hurley and has quite a ways to go yet. Also, the Sun Devils are 1-5 SU (and 1-4 ATS in neutral court games) while the Panthers are 13-3 SU (and 12-4 ATS) in neutral court games. 8* NORTHERN IOWA Thursday afternoon |
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11-16-16 | Texas-San Antonio v. Illinois-Chicago -7.5 | 78-86 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #530 Wednesday - 8* Illinois-Chicago Flames (-) vs UTSA Roadrunners @ 8 ET - UTSA lost a top scorer and leading assist man when Christian Wilson was arrested (again) and got suspended before this season started. Amazingly the Roadrunners have come up with a couple of road covers to begin their season but they've shot the ball very poorly and it catches up with them here against an Illinois-Chicago team hungry for a win after a tight loss began their season. UTSA has made just 34.6% of their shots from the field in their first two games this season and now is on the road for a third straight game. They won't be able to keep up with a Flames team that shot the ball very well (but came up just short by a bucket on the scoreboard) in their season-opening loss at San Francisco. The Flames will have the fresher legs for this match-up while the Roadrunners are playing their 3rd game in 6 nights away from home and could get caught looking ahead to their home opener. For UIC, this is their home opener and they will make the most of it. Both of these teams are off of poor seasons last year but the Flames have more continuity with more returning starters than the Roadrunners plus more continuity in coaching as UTSA has a new coach (Steve Henson) this season (rest in peace Brooks Thompson my friend) while Illinois-Chicago has Steve McClain now in his 2nd year at the helm. The Flames played a sloppy first game and shot poorly from the free throw line. You can bet (literally!) that they'll have all that cleaned up as they've had 5 days between games to get ready for this home opener. 8* Illinois-Chicago Wednesday |
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11-16-16 | Cavs v. Pacers +4.5 | Top | 93-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
Earliest Cash Top Play - Rickenbach NBA Game #502 Wednesday - 10* Top Play Indiana Pacers (+) vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7:05 ET - Tough spot for the Cavaliers after surviving a "war" with the Raptors last night and hanging on for the four point win. Cleveland, now in a back to back situation, has to face a tough Pacers team that has always given them trouble in Indiana. Yes, the Pacers have an ugly ATS mark early this season but a lot of that has to do with Indy being 0-5 ATS on the road. At home, the Pacers have a straight-up record of 5-1 on the young season. They're catching Cleveland at a great time as the Cavaliers big three played some significant minutes last night with LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, and Kevin Love all logging at least 34 minutes in yesterday's non-covering win over the Raptors. Cleveland not only made nearly 40% of their three pointers last night, the Cavs also made 31 of 50 (62%) of their shots from inside the arc. Even with all the hot shooting Cleveland barely got by the Raptors and that says a lot right here. Now, on the road and in a back to back spot, the hot shooting is unlikely to continue and the Cavs will be in a battle just to try and win (let alone cover!) this tough road match-up. The Pacers have covered each of the last four meetings between these teams in Indiana. Overall, Indy is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings with the Cavs. The Cavaliers are on a 7-16 ATS run as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. The Pacers are on a 22-12 ATS run in divisional games and will build off a confidence building effort against Orlando Monday where they held the Magic to just 69 points! It's always big to be welcoming the defending NBA champs to town and the Pacers want this game badly and are catching their division rivals at the perfect time - a tough scheduling spot for Cleveland. 10* Top Play INDIANA PACERS Wednesday |
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11-15-16 | Kansas +2.5 v. Duke | Top | 77-75 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #743 Tuesday - 10* Top Play Kansas Jayhawks (+) vs Duke Blue Devils in New York, NY @ 9:30 ET - The Jayhawks lost in OT on Friday in Hawaii as four players fouled out and they didn't play "Kansas D" in that game either. The Jayhawks allowed Indiana to connect on 48.4% of their three pointers and ended up losing the game by 4 points in the extra session. Kansas is going to respond in a HUGE way Tuesday night as coach Bill Self's Jayhawks had not lost a season opener in his 14 years with the team! They are fired up and ready to go here and what better opportunity for response than facing the #1 team in the nation? As usual, Duke is stacked this season but they faced a pair of weak foes to begin their season and now they will get truly tested tonight. The Blue Devils will be playing their 3rd game in 5 nights and they're facing a Jayhawks team that went 5-0 SU (and 4-1 ATS) the past two seasons when they are off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more. Long-term Kansas has a record of 66-13 SU (and 48-24, 67% ATS!) when off of a game where they gave up 80 points or more. Keep in mind that as "stacked" as Duke is, the Blue Devils are without three highly-touted newcomers for tonight's game. Missing Harry Giles, Jayson Tatum, and Marques Bolden was not a problem against the likes of Marist and Grand Canyon but the Jayhawks are an elite team. 10* Top Play KANSAS Tuesday |
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11-15-16 | Raptors +6.5 v. Cavs | Top | 117-121 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
NBA TV Top Play - Rickenbach NBA Game #701 Monday - 10* Top Play Toronto Raptors (+) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7:05 ET - The Cavaliers continue to be over-valued. Since a blowout win over the Knicks in their season opener, Cleveland has covered only once in their last eight games. They're facing a Raptors team with revenge on its mind as Toronto lost a tight one to the Cavs early this season plus got knocked out of last year's post-season by the eventual NBA champions. The Raptors loss to the Cavaliers was one of just two losses Toronto has on the season and it's no coincidence that those two games are the only two games in which the Raptors have shot under 44% from the field. Amazingly, the Cavaliers have been at the other end of the spectrum as they have been held under 42.5% from the field in 6 of their last 8 games. The Cavs have shot well from three point range and that is what has saved them. In their win at Toronto earlier this season the Cavaliers outscored the Raptors by 24 points from beyond the arc and yet they only won the game by 3 points. Toronto will get some payback tonight and, while the Cavaliers are playing for the 4th time in 6 nights, the Raptors have had two days off heading into this game. Toronto is 3-0 SU and ATS in road games this season while the Cavaliers are on an 0-5 ATS run in home games. Also, the Raptors are 4-0 ATS in games against teams averaging 99 points or more per game this season. That means we have combined systems of 12-0 ATS that are in favor of the road dog in this one. I'll take that any day of the week! 10* Top Play TORONTO RAPTORS Tuesday |
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11-15-16 | Michigan State +8 v. Kentucky | 48-69 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
ESPN Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach CBB Game #741 Tuesday - 8* Michigan State Spartans (+) vs Kentucky Wildcats in New York, NY @ 7 ET - Apparently the Spartans don't even need to show up for this game. The very first numbers to show up on this one had the Wildcats as a 4 point choice. They have since doubled to where Kentucky is now an 8 point favorite in this game. I am not buying it. Sure the Spartans were in Hawaii Friday and Manhattan is a long way from Honolulu! However, Michigan State has had plenty of time for travel and to adjust their body clocks. Both of these teams are rather young but Kentucky particularly is inexperienced on the floor and now playing at Madison Square Garden. Also, this situation isn't very favorable for the Wildcats from a scheduling standpoint either. They're already playing their 3rd game in 5 days and what is also concerning for Kentucky is they've made only 26.5% of their three pointers even though they've played two weak teams to start the season. Also, the Wildcats have allowed their foes to connect on 43% of their shots from the field while the Spartans held Arizona to just 38.5% from the floor in their season opening loss. That was a tough defeat for multiple reasons as Michigan State had jumped out to a 17-2 lead in the game plus they eventually lost it on a late coast to coast drive for the winning bucket. The point is that the Spartans, known for playing tough D and crashing the boards, are going to play with an extra edginess and grittiness for coach Tom Izzo tonight as they look to shake off that opening night loss. That makes the big points well worth grabbing in this spot. Kentucky is 1-5 SU and ATS in a neutral court game with a posted total between 150 and 154.5 points while the Spartans have a 9-2 SU record in those game. Sparty for the cover in this one! 8* MICHIGAN STATE Tuesday |
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11-14-16 | 76ers +11.5 v. Rockets | 88-115 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
NBA TV Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #509 Monday - 8* Philadelphia 76'ers (+) @ Houston Rockets @ 8:05 ET - The Rockets are still without point guard Patrick Beverley. His absence has severely hurt the defense of Houston as he his their best perimeter defender. The Rockets are allowing 106.7 ppg this season and that is only 1.5 points per game less than the Sixers allow. Of course Houston, even without Beverley, is a far better team than Philadelphia is but this is not a good spot for the Rockets. It is a "sandwich spot" as it is a meaningless game for the Rockets stuck between match-ups with two of their biggest rivals as Houston hosted San Antonio Saturday and has a big game on deck at Oklahoma City Wednesday. That is one big key to the value here but the other keys include the fact that the Rockets have only one win by more than 8 points this season. As for the Sixers, they've had some ugly losses but one pattern that has already emerged with the 76'ers early this season is that they don't have bad games back to back. When the Sixers are off of a loss by 7 points or more they've responded with a loss of 7 points or less every single time. This "system" is already a perfect 4-0 this season and one of those games was an outright win for Philly and two of them were defeats by only 2 point and 1 point, respectively. The Sixers enter this game off of an ugly loss at Atlanta and I look for them to improve to 5-0 ATS this season when off of a loss by a margin of 7 points or more. The Rockets are 14-26 (35%) ATS when off of a divisional game. Bad spot for Houston here and the 76'ers will "hang around" in this one which makes the big points a strong play here. 8* PHILADELPHIA Monday night |
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11-14-16 | Columbia v. St. Joe's -6 | 65-85 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #534 Monday - 8* St Joseph's Hawks (-) vs Columbia Lions @ 7 ET - Both teams are off of wins in their season openers but the Hawks win was more impressive even though I got burned by it in the non-covering win. I had St Joseph's but they blew a late 76-71 lead to settle for a 77-76 win as a 2.5 point choice. The reason it was more impressive than the Columbia victory is because the Hawks faced a MAC team (Toledo) while the Lions opened up with an America East foe (Stony Brook). Even though the Seawolves were off of a strong season they suffered huge player losses coming into this year and are expected to drop into the middle of the pack in the AEC. In other words, don't put a lot of stock into that win and keep in mind that Columbia is actually expected to finish near the bottom of the Ivy League this season. The Lions are going through a coaching transition (from Kyle Smith) to Jim Engles and Columbia also lost a senior group from last season that was the strength of this team. The Lions are having to replace their entire backcourt and that's never a good sign for early season success. With this line dropping from an opener of 7.5 in some shops to as low as a 6 now in some shops as of late morning Monday, I love backing the stronger team from the stronger conference at home as there is no reason the Hawks shouldn't win this game by double digits. The backcourt of the home fave will be the difference-maker here as, though they lost some key talent from last season's squad, the Hawks are still strong (particularly at the guard spot). 8* ST JOSEPH'S Monday |
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11-14-16 | Villanova v. Purdue OVER 148 | Top | 79-76 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #531/532 Monday - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Purdue Boilermakers vs Villanova Wildcats @ 7 ET - Purdue has one of the biggest frontcourts in the country and, as a result, there is no way that Villanova wants to turn this game into a half-court affair. The Wildcats are built well for being able to get quick points in transition and use their outstanding guard play to score big points in this one. In terms of the inside game, the Boilermakers are going to be able to score a ton of points in the paint including with second chance opportunities as their big men will certainly grab some offensive caroms in this one. The Cats put up 88 points in their season opener while Purdue scored 109 and the Mackey Arena will be rocking tonight for this HUGE game! The over is a long-term 14-6 in Villanova road games where their line ranges from pick'em up to a -3. Also, the over is 15-7 the last 3 seasons in all Wildcats road games. Additionally, the over is a long-term 15-5 in Nova road games where the posted total is in a range from 145 to 149.5 points. Tonight, with the Cats wanting to push the tempo and play small ball and the Boilermakers willing to engage in some running and quick transition points as they take advantage of the raucous atmosphere in West Lafayette, look for the over to improve to 8-4 in Purdue's last 12 games against Big East opposition. This should be a wildly entertaining early-season affair. 10* OVER the total in Purdue early Monday evening |
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11-13-16 | Nuggets +7 v. Blazers | Top | 105-112 | Push | 0 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #709 Sunday - 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (+) @ Portland Trail Blazers @ 9:05 ET - Even though this is a back to back spot for the Nuggets, it also is a revenge spot for Denver and I expect a huge effort from them here. The Nuggets lost at home to the Trail Blazers by a bucket on October 29th and that ruined Denver's home opener. Now it is time for payback in this spot and I'll gladly take advantage of a line that opened up as low as a 4 but is now all the way up to a 7 on gameday morning. Portland is 6-4 on the season but they're average margin of victory in the 6 wins is only 5.3 points per game and only twice out of all ten games this season have the Blazers won by more than 6 points. The Nuggets are a big value in this price range because in their 9 games this season they only have 3 losses by more than 3 points. In other words, as you can see from the above, the likelihood is that Denver is "in this one" all the way especially given the revenge angle here too. The Nuggets have been strong on the road this season with a 5-1 ATS mark while Portland has struggled in games projected to be high scoring as they are 1-5 ATS in games with a posted total of 210 or greater. Overall, the Trail Blazers are only 1-4 ATS in home games. Even though this is a back to back for the Nuggets they have two straight off days coming up after tonight's game so they will definitely leave it all on the floor tonight as they go for revenge. Blazers playing for 4th time in 6 nights so they are not exactly at their freshest either. 10* DENVER NUGGETS Sunday |
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11-13-16 | Yale +15 v. Washington | 98-90 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #725 Sunday - 8* Yale Bulldogs (+) @ Washington Huskies @ 7 ET - The last time I checked under any rocks I didn't find any odds makers. All kidding aside, the point is that odds makers don't live under rocks. It's not like they don't know what is going on with these teams when they set the lines. That said, this line on Washington has jumped like crazy on Sunday morning because of Makai Mason being out for the season with a bad foot injury. This news about Mason has been out since early in the week so it was factored into the opening number on this game. That opening number was -9 on the Huskies but it has since moved to -15. So what the markets are saying here is that the odds makers missed the mark by a ton with this one. That is rarely the case (odds makers missing badly just doesn't happen that often) and I am siding with the big dog in this match-up. Oftentimes in the first game after a star player gets hurt, the rest of the team rallies around his absence and many of the supporting cast tend to have their biggest games in situations like this. Though he was their best player, Mason was not the captain of the team and I look for senior guard Anthony Dallier, team captain, to rally the troops for this one. Coach James Jones has been at Yale for 17 years and he'll have his team ready to go in this one. Even though the Bulldogs lost a lot of talent from last year's team it is important to note that the Huskies also suffered three key player losses as Andrew Andrews, Dejounte Murray, and Marquese Chriss combined for 51 points and 17 rebounds per game last season! The Huskies get the win here but I am leaning with the odds makers in this one as this game should be decided by single digits. 8* YALE BULLDOGS Sunday |
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11-12-16 | Clippers -4 v. Wolves | 119-105 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #511 Saturday - 8* Los Angeles Clippers (-) @ Minnesota Timberwolves @ 8:05 ET - This line opened up at a -5.5 and it has already moved down to a -4 which is not a big surprise because the Clips are in a back to back spot and coming off of a revenging win at Oklahoma City last night. It was a non-covering win for the Clippers last night and I got burned by that game but I won't hesitate to take advantage of the line value (after the move this morning) and take advantage of backing an 8-1 Los Angeles team for whom no one played more than 36 minutes last night. The only reason the Clippers didn't cover in last night's win at Oklahoma City is because the Thunder hit a ridiculous 16 of 28 three pointers. The Clips continue to be one of the top teams in the league on defense early this season and they held OKC to just 22 of 60 from inside the arc last night! The Timberwolves are 2-5 on the season, a young team, and they are off of a rare win. Unlike the Clippers, the T-wolves aren't known for playing defense. That will be the difference in this match-up and the Clips have a home game on deck with Brooklyn so there certainly is no look-ahead here. Even after last night's tough loss (ATS), the Clippers are still 14-4 ATS (and 47-18 ATS long-term) when they are a road fave in a range of 3.5 to 6 points. The Timberwolves are 3-10 ATS (and 0-13 SU!) when they are off of a win by a double digit margin. With Minnesota off of a win by 16 points at Orlando Wednesday, look for them to add another L to that 3-10 ATS mark tonight. 8* LA Clippers Saturday |
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11-12-16 | Toledo v. St. Joe's -2.5 | 76-77 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 45 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #526 Saturday 8* St Joseph's Hawks (-) vs Toledo Rockets @ 7 ET - The opening line came out at -6 on this game. It's been hammered all the way down to -2.5 as of late morning Saturday. The reason for that is the fact that St Joseph's lost 3 key contributors from last season's team. However, let's not forget that Toledo did lose a pair of key contributors from their roster as well. The other key point is that it is not as if the odds maker is unaware of these player losses from last season and he hung a 6 on this game. St Joseph's is still at home for this game, they are still coached by a very solid head coach in Phil Martelli, and they still get some homegrown talent from the area that comes in and contributes right away. That said, I am not buying that Toledo is the better team in this match-up. They are a MAC team that is projected to be one of the weaker teams in the MAC again this season whereas St Joseph's does battle with teams like Dayton, Rhode Island, VCU, Davidson, LaSalle, and George Washington in the Atlantic 10. The Hawks went 22-8 in home games the past two seasons and Toledo has lost 11 of their last 14 games with a total posted in the 150s. That said, and with only having to cover a 2.5 here, my money is on the Hawks at home. 8* ST JOSEPH'S Saturday |
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11-11-16 | Indiana v. Kansas -6 | Top | 103-99 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
ESPN Top Play - Rickenbach CBB Game #776 Friday - 10* Top Play Kansas Jayhawks (-) vs Indiana Hoosiers @ 9:30 PM ET in Armed Forces Classic @ Joint Base in Pearl Harbor, Hawaii - The Hoosiers are ranked far too high in my opinion. Yes the Hoosiers are a very talented group but they didn't have a lot of time to jell together in the offseason and to try to create team chemistry as a group. Also, not having lone senior Collin Hartman for this game against Kansas certainly hurts IU. Including him with four key losses (Biefeldt, Ferrell, Williams, Zeisloft) from last season's team means the Hoosiers will be without 50.3 points and 18.8 rebounds per game for this season opener. Yes, there is a lot of talent that will be on the floor tonight for the Hoosiers but they're facing a stacked Kansas team that absolutely could win it all this season and, keep in mind, the Hoosiers allowed an average of 71.7 points per game last season with a positive point differential of only 5.7 points per game. The Jayhawks allowed only 67.6 points per game and they had a positive point differential of 13.7 points per game. Even though the Jayhawks lost a pair of top starters in Perry Ellis and Wayne Selden, Kansas returns three starters plus a pair of McDonalds All-Americans. One of those is Josh Jackson who, along with returnees Frank Mason and Devonte Graham gives the Jayhawks arguably the top trio of players in the nation once Jackson goes through the early season adjustment that is normal for a freshman at the collegiate level. Also, with 7 footer Udoka Azubuike joining 6'10 returnee Landen Lucas, Kansas should continue to dominate the boards (3rd in Big 12 for rebounding margin last year). The Jayhawks ranked in the top 5 in the nation last season for shooting percentage from the field overall and from 3-point land. Kansas has won the Big 12 regular-season championship 12 straight times and veteran coach Bill Self enters his 14th season with the Jayhawks. Svi Mykhailiuk could be a pleasant surprise as he is now in his 3rd season and could providing significantly bigger scoring off of the bench. Having Mason and Graham (strong defenders) back also helps in terms of the team defense and Kansas has a great shot at winning it all this season. Certainly I look for them to get their season off to a strong start as I feel Indiana is without question a Top 40 team but definitely not a Top 10 team. The Hoosiers are over-valued here until all their newcomers perhaps jell later in the season. Indiana is only 4-6 SU and ATS in tournament games. The Jayhawks are a stellar 15-3 SU (and 13-5 ATS!) in tournament games the past two seasons. Lay it! 10* KANSAS Friday |
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11-11-16 | Clippers -4.5 v. Thunder | 110-108 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 48 m | Show | |
NBA TV Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #711 Friday - 8* Los Angeles Clippers (-) @ Oklahoma City Thunder @ 8:05 ET - The Clippers have only lost one game so far this season and it was the Thunder who got the tight two-point win over them in Los Angeles a little over a week ago. That makes this a revenge spot for the Clips and we are getting line value here because of Oklahoma City's 6-2 record on the season. Keep in mind that the Thunder early season record has certainly been helped by a favorable schedule. Other than the upset win over the Clippers, OKC has 5 wins against teams that have a combined 12-27 record so far this season! Against Golden State and Toronto (a combined 11-4 record) the Thunder lost the games by a combined 36 points. Now they face another one of the league's top teams and Oklahoma City is likely to get throttled by the revenge-seeking Clips. Los Angeles has thrived in this situation historically. In fact, the Clippers are an incredible 47-17 ATS long-term (and 15-3 ATS the L3 seasons combined) when they are a road favorite in a range of -3.5 to -6 points! The Thunder are 11-21 ATS the L3 seasons combined on Friday nights. They get blasted again here as the powerful road fave gets their revenge. The point differential for LA this season is incredible as they are averaging 105 points per game while allowing only 88 points per game. All 7 of the Clips wins have come by at least 8 points. Lay it! 8* LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS Friday |
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11-11-16 | Michigan State -122 v. Arizona | 63-65 | Loss | -122 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
ESPN Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach CBB Game #773 Friday - 8* Michigan State Spartans (-) vs Arizona Wildcats @ 7 PM ET in Armed Forces Classic @ Joint Base in Pearl Harbor, Hawaii - The fact that Allonzo Trier is expected to miss this game tonight is a big loss for the Wildcats. The shooting guard is expected to be one of the top scorers in college this season. That severely hampers an Arizona backcourt that was already weakened by question marks at the point guard position. That said, strong backcourt play is key in early season college hoops action so, even though the Cats certainly have an advantage over the Spartans in the frontcourt in terms of size, Michigan State will hold the overall edge in this first game based on strong backcourt play. The Spartans backcourt is led by senior Eron Harris (big scorer, strong defender) and junior point guard Lourawls "Tum Tum" Nairn, Jr who is a solid distributor and also a top notch defender. The Spartans are 3-1 ATS in neutral court games where their line ranges from pick'em to -3. The Wildcats are on a 5-11 ATS run in neutral court games. 8* MICHIGAN STATE |
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11-10-16 | Bulls +2.5 v. Heat | 98-95 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
TNT Blowout - Rickenbach NBA Game #503 - 8* Chicago Bulls (+) @ Miami Heat @ 8:05 ET Thursday - The scheduling edge here certainly goes to Miami but sometimes these types of edges get "played up" too much and the value is truly with the team in the worse situation. Indeed this is a back to back spot for the Bulls while the Heat have been off since Monday. However, Chicago is hungry off of a loss last night and you know that Dwyane Wade has his sights set on having a huge performance in his first trip to Miami since becoming a Bull. The Heat are struggling early this season with just 2 wins in 6 games on the year and Miami is struggling to find perimeter shooting. This certainly has played a role in the Heat shooting only 41.8% from the field this season. Look for Miami to struggle to try and keep up with a Bulls team that is averaging 107.2 points per game on the young season. The only two wins the Heat have this season have come against Sacramento and Orlando. The Kings and Magic are projected to be among the worst teams in the league this season. The Bulls are only 4-4 on the season but have wins over Indiana and Boston and those are both playoff-level teams. Also, having the extra rest may not help a Miami offense that is struggling to find its rhythm early this season. The Heat also are already 0-2 SU and ATS when playing with 2 days of rest this season. The line here has moved from pick'em to Miami -2.5 and I'll grab the value on the other side of the move. 8* CHICAGO Thursday |
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11-09-16 | Bulls +3.5 v. Hawks | Top | 107-115 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA Game #711 Wednesday - 10* Top Play Chicago Bulls (+) @ Atlanta Hawks @ 7:35 ET - The Bulls have revenge on their minds here. They lost all 4 meetings with the Hawks last season. Chicago has lost each of it's last 3 visits to Atlanta and 6 of the last 7 meetings overall. How do they rectify the situation? The Bulls catching the Hawks at the right time is a big help and that is exactly what has happened here. Chicago is catching Atlanta off of a big revenging win at Cleveland last night. Not only is this a back to back spot for the Hawks but they also had to battle all night to get past the Cavaliers last night. That sets this situation up beautifully for a Bulls upset today as the Hawks will have trouble dealing with another quality opponent in the 2nd night of a back to back and with travel involved as the Hawks had to get back to Atlanta after last night's game. The Hawks held the Cavs Irving and Smith to a combined 13 of 40 from the field and Atlanta simply won't have much left in the tank after last night's solid defensive effort. From a situational standpoint, it just doesn't get much better than this. Grab the points. 10* CHICAGO Wednesday |
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11-09-16 | 76ers +12.5 v. Pacers | 115-122 | Win | 100 | 15 h 7 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA Game #709 Wednesday - 8* Philadelphia 76'ers (+) @ Indiana Pacers @ 7:05 ET - The 76'ers are off of an ugly loss to Utah Monday. Even though the Sixers are 0-6 on the season they have yet to have back to back blowout losses. Each time off of an ugly loss Philadelphia has responded with a strong effort which has resulted in a competitive game. That is also what I expect to be the case in this instance as well. Philly is at Indiana and getting plenty of points. The Pacers are only 3-4 on the season and only one of those victories has come by a double digit margin. Indiana enters this game on a 1-5 ATS skid. The Sixers are already 2-0 ATS this season when off of a loss by a double digit margin and also 19-12 ATS the past three seasons when they are off of a game where they were held to 85 points or less. After their ugly 109-84 loss to the Jazz on Monday, the Sixers keep this one much more competitive than many are expecting. Look for the 76'ers to play some small ball (and use that to their advantage) as one of their big men, Joel Embiid, is likely to sit this one out. 8* PHILADELPHIA Wednesday |
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11-09-16 | Wolves +3 v. Magic | 123-107 | Win | 100 | 15 h 51 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA Game #701 Wednesday - 8* Minnesota Timberwolves (+) @ Orlando Magic @ 7:05 ET - I lost with the T-wolves last night but the final score is deceiving as the game was much closer than the final margin. The end result of a loss leaves the Timberwolves still very hungry for a win and, even though this is a back to back spot, I like their chances against a struggling Orlando team. The Magic showed very little heart in the way they got blown out by 32 in the loss at Chicago Monday. Orlando had a strong first half but could do nothing right in the second half and they are proving early this season that they are a tough team to trust. The Magic are only 3-4 on the season and 2 of their wins came by 2 points or less. With this line climbing up early to a +3 for Minny, there is nice line value with the underdog. The first three losses that Minnesota had this season all came by 4 points or less. The T-wolves have been so close to turning the corner but again fell just short at Brooklyn last night as the Nets just simply were on fire from the field. The Timberwolves played a good game but Brooklyn won despite getting outshot by a double digit margin in attempts from the field. The Nets were hot from the field. For Minny, the good news is that tonight they are unlikely to run into that problem as the Magic are only hitting 41% from the field this season. Also, Orlando is making only 30.4% of their three pointers this season. Look for the Magic to drop to 0-4 ATS on the season as a favorite. A young team like the Timberwolves won't be greatly impacted by this back to back spot and they also have two off days on deck after this so they 'leave it all on the floor' tonight as they go for that elusive road victory. I expect them to get it but will certainly grab the points as the T-wolves have revenge on their minds after losing both match-ups with Orlando each of the past two seasons. 8* MINNESOTA Wednesday |
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11-08-16 | Wolves -4 v. Nets | Top | 110-119 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
Top Blowout Smash - Rickenbach NBA Game #503 Tuesday - 10* Top Play Minnesota Timberwolves (-) @ Brooklyn Nets @ 7:35 ET - Both of these teams have injury issues at the point guard spot but it is a much worse situation for the Nets in comparison with the Timberwolves. Already without star PG Jeremy Lin, the Nets are likely to be without Greivis Vazquez (back-up PG) tonight as well. Minnesota at least has 2nd year man Tyus Jones to man the point along with rookie Kris Dunn. Though Randy Foye is expected to finally play his first game of the new season tonight, the Brooklyn shooting guard is unlikely to be in top rhythm in his very first game back. That said, Minny can focus on double-teaming Brooks Lopez down low and this effectively shuts down the Nets offense. Brooklyn has been held to 95 points or less in 2 of their last 3 games. The T-wolves, with Karl-Anthony Towns, will have the best player on the floor tonight and he and his Minnesota teammates are hungry to get back into the win column after back to back losses. On deck for the T-wolves is another non-conference match-up while the Nets have a big game on deck with the cross-town division rival Knicks. Brooklyn has the much better ATS mark in comparison with the Timberwolves early this season but that is helping to give line value to a Minny team that won both meetings with the Nets by a double digit margin last season. Teams can grow complacent when on a long homestand and Brooklyn is 4-16 ATS (and 2-18 SU!) when they enter a game having played each of their three prior games at home. The Timberwolves are 24-13 ATS in their last 37 meetings with the Nets and they add another W to that tonight as they bounce back after back to back losses. 10* MINNESOTA |
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11-08-16 | Hawks +8.5 v. Cavs | 110-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
NBA TV Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Tuesday - 8* Atlanta Hawks (+) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 8:05 ET - Big revenge game for Atlanta after getting eliminated from the playoffs by Cleveland last spring. Though it certainly will be tough for the Hawks to win outright on the road against the Cavaliers, there definitely is significant line value with the points that are being offered here. The Cavs are 6-0 on the season but their last 5 wins have all come by 8 points or less. In fact, the average margin of victory in those 8 games is only 4.8 points! As for the Hawks, they are 4-2 on the season and their two losses came by only 7 points and 3 points, respectively. Each of the Cavaliers last 4 opponents have hit at least 45.2% from the field. As for the Hawks, they've held 4 of their 6 opponents to 43.5% or less from the field. Cleveland has been knocking down three pointers but the Hawks have been better from inside the arc and, with two full off days between games, the Cavaliers may have lost some of their rhythm from three point land. Each team has been off since Saturday. Atlanta is 46-22 SU (and 42-26 ATS) when off of a win by a margin of 10 points or more. The Cavaliers continue to be a money-burning team in November as they are on a 10-20 ATS run in November games including an ugly 0-3 ATS this season. Also, the Hawks are already 2-0 ATS agianst teams with a winning record this season so that is a combined 5-0 ATS mark in favor of the road dog in this one. 8* ATLANTA |
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11-07-16 | Jazz v. 76ers +7.5 | 109-84 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
Watch-n-Win Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #706 Monday - 8* Philadelphia 76'ers (+) vs Utah Jazz @ 7:05 ET - The Sixers are still seeking their first win of the season but they have been very competitive in home games. Philly is off of a 1 point loss to the NBA champion Cavaliers and that means that the 76'ers have now had 3 of 4 losses at home by an average of 3 points per game! Philly is hungry to get over the hump here as they have a road game on deck and that begins a stretch where 4 of the Sixers next 6 games are away from home. Getting that first win while still on their home floor is a big goal for Philadelphia and they are catching Utah at a good time. The Jazz are off of a win at New York yesterday and this is the first time this season that the Jazz have had to play road games on back to back days. Also, this will be Utah's 5th game in 7 days. It is a tough stretch for the road team here and Philadelphia is playing for just the 2nd time in 5 days so the 76'ers certainly will have the fresher legs tonight. The Sixers are 16-4 ATS against Northwest Division teams and 38-21 ATS in non-conference action as the teams from out west certainly don't bring a lot of motivation to these match-ups with a team that has been the worst in the Eastern Conference in recent seasons. 8* PHILADELPHIA 76'ERS Monday evening |
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11-07-16 | Rockets v. Wizards OVER 216 | Top | 114-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
#1 Top Play - Rickenbach NBA Game #703/704 Monday - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Wizards vs Houston Rockets @ 7:05 ET - The Rockets have a big game on deck at San Antonio so I don't expect their defensive intensity to be at it's best for this non-conference match-up with the Wizards. Houston has already allowed 50.6% or better from the field in 3 of their 5 road games this season. The Rockets gave up an average of 120 points per game in those 3 games. The Wizards will have John Wall back after he rested in their most recent game. Washington shot poorly on the road in their Saturday game as Wall sat out. The Wizards also shot poorly in their 2nd home game of the season but in their 1st one they shot 58.3% from the field and I look for the Wiz to bounce back after a day off followed rare, poor shooting on back to back nights. The Rockets also are looking to respond off a 112-97 loss at Atlanta Saturday and Houston has gone 24-15 to the over when off of a loss by a double digit margin. With this total dropping from it's opener there is even more value with the over and I will make this my first top of the season in what should be a very high-scoring affair with the Wizards also in a lookahead with Boston on deck. Not a lot of defense is likely to be seen in this non-conference match-up given the situation. 10* OVER the total in Washington Monday evening |
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11-06-16 | Nuggets +7.5 v. Celtics | 123-107 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #509 Sunday - 8* Denver Nuggets (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 7:35 ET - Many will be looking to fade the Nuggets here because they are in the 2nd night of a back to back situation while the Celtics have had 2 days off coming into this battle in Boston. However, no one played more than 29 minutes for Denver last night and the only reason the Nuggets were beaten badly is that they shot poorly. Denver was held to 33% from the field but they again won the battle of the boards and are averaging about a dozen more boards per game than their opponents so far this season. As for the Celtics, they are an ugly 8-14 ATS when playing with two days of rest and they have been outrebounded in 3 of their last 4 games. The deficit has been about 15 boards per game in those 3 games. What I especially like about this match-up is the value with the big points. All 5 of Boston's game this season have been decided by 6 points or less and, before yesterday's rare blowout loss, all of Denver's games this season had been decided by 5 points or less. With the Nuggets about a 7.5 point dog here, there is great value with the points. The Nuggets also have plenty of motivation here as they've lost both match-ups with Boston each of the past two seasons. 8* DENVER |
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11-05-16 | Kings v. Bucks OVER 204.5 | 91-117 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #713/714 Saturday - 8* OVER the total in Milwaukee Bucks vs Sacramento Kings @ 8:05 ET -Â The Kings are off of a game that stayed under the total that had no business being an under on Thursday. The total was a 197 and the game had 162 points through 3 quarters. The fact the game ended up being Sacramento's 4th under in their 6 games this season helps lead to line value here as this total is being kept lower than it should be. The Bucks are 4-1 to the over this season and will have no qualms about pushing the pace on their home floor. Also, Milwaukee hit 58% from the floor in their 125-107 win over Indiana and they have scored 110 points or more in 3 of their last 4 games. The Kings have allowed at least 102 points in 5 straight games. In road games with a posted total between 200 and 204.5 points Sacramento is on a 7-2 run to the over. Also, the last 4 meetings between these teams all went over the total. Like a typical non-conference match-up, the defensive intensity is not the same as you would see in, for example, a rivalry game. That said, look for plenty of open looks and open drives to the bucket in this one. 8* OVER in Milwaukee |
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11-05-16 | Wizards v. Magic OVER 199.5 | 86-88 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #707/708 Saturday - 8* OVER the total in Orlando Magic vs Washington Wizards @ 7:05 ET - The fact that the Wizards John Wall is expected to be given a day of rest in this back to back spot has resulted in a downward line move with this total. This has led to great line value on the over in this match-up. The Magic are off of a game that stayed under the total that had no business being an under on Thursday. The total was a 197 and the game had 162 points through 3 quarters. The fact the game ended up being Orlando's 3rd under in their last 4 games also helps lead to line value here as this total is being kept lower than it should be. The Wizards had a rare, strong defensive effort last night as they were in a revenge spot against Atlanta. Prior to that game though Washington was allowing 113 points per game and I look for their defensive struggles to resume tonight. The Magic have allowed 47.5% or better shooting from the field in 4 of their 5 games. Orlando is no defensive juggernaut despite the recent stretch of unders. The over is 23-16 in Wizards games in the 2nd of a back to back situation. Also, Washington is on a 25-15 run to the over in divisional games. The Magic are on a 9-5 run to the over when they are a home fave in a range of 3.5 to 6 games. 8* OVER in Orlando |
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11-04-16 | Blazers v. Mavs +2 | 105-95 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 6 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA Game #514 Friday - 8* Dallas Mavericks (+) vs Portland Trail Blazers @ 8:35 ET - Portland is playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and they just lost at New Orleans Wednesday to give the Pelicans their first win of the season. Now I look for the Trail Blazers to end up giving the Mavericks their first win of the season. Dallas has allowed just 95 points per game in their past two games but they've still come up short of a victory. Portland has allowed 115.2 points per game so far this season and the Blazers won't be able to match the defensive intensity of the hungry Mavs in this one. Portland has gone over the total in each of their five games this season and this style of play hasn't led to many positive results at the betting window in the past. When the Trail Blazers enter a game having gone over the total in each of their three prior games, they have gone 10-18 ATS (including 0-2 ATS this season). The Mavericks have covered 5 of their last 7 meetings with Portland and that includes all 3 of the meetings in Dallas. Off of 4 straight losses to open the season the Mavericks are the hungry home dog here and the Blazers aren't going to be able to match their defensive intensity. 8* DALLAS Friday |
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11-04-16 | Knicks +7.5 v. Bulls | 117-104 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Friday - 8* New York Knicks (+) @ Chicago Bulls @ 8:05 ET - Huge game for Joakim Noah and Derrick Rose as they return from New York to Chicago to face their former team. Both of these clubs, with all the changes in the off-season, are having struggles getting going early this season. Of course it has been worse for the 1-3 Knicks than the 3-1 Bulls but with the way Chicago's D is struggling, including on the perimeter in their loss @ Boston Wednesday, the points are the way to go here. The Bulls have allowed opponents to shoot 47% or better from the floor in 3 of their 4 games and Chicago faces a hungry Knicks team that has played the tougher schedule early this season. New York, off of an ugly home loss to Houston, is eyeing this big match-up on ESPN Friday night as an opportunity to right the ship. Look for Noah and Rose to lead the way as the Knicks improve on a 19-12 ATS mark in Friday night games the past 2 seasons. The Bulls have only gone 9-15 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points the past 2 seasons. 8* NEW YORK Friday |
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11-04-16 | Hawks v. Wizards -113 | 92-95 | Win | 100 | 5 h 58 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA Game #502 Friday - 8* Washington Wizards (Pick'em) vs Atlanta Hawks @ 7:05 ET - Would recommend playing this one on the money line since the price is basically a "pick'em" price range of -110. The Wizards shot 58% from the field in their loss Wednesday and it was their 3rd straight over as the offense is heating up. Washington has gone 16-8 the past two seasons when they enter a game on a streak of 3 or more consecutive overs. As a road dog of 3 points or less, Atlanta has gone 48-65 long-term and the Hawks are facing a Wizards team that has revenge on their minds after Washington lost at Atlanta in their season opener last week. It is payback time here as now the Wizards have the home court edge for the rematch. 8* WASHINGTON Friday |
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11-03-16 | Kings v. Magic OVER 197 | 94-102 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
Earliest Gem - Rickenbach NBA Game #701/702 Thursday - 8* OVER the total in Orlando Magic vs Sacramento Kings @ 7:05 ET - Neither one of these teams has been getting the job done on defense. The Magic were supposed to be improved in terms of interior defense but that hasn't shown up yet this season and now they'll be dealing with a fully focused and fired up DeMarcus Cousins of the Kings. The big man should have his way inside in this game and, at the same time, he may have to back on the other end of the floor because foul trouble cost Cousins and the Kings in their OT loss at Miami Tuesday as he fouled out and missed the overtime period. Sacramento wants to keep Cousins on the floor and their defense may have to sag a little in this game as a result and I expect Orlando to take advantage. The Magic have shot 45% from the field in their last two games so they are starting to find their rhythm after horrid shooting in the first two games of the season. The Orlando D has been an issue as 3 of their 4 opponents have shot at least 48.5% from the field. The Kings struggled to make shots against San Antonio in an early season match-up but in the other 3 games that made up their first 4 of the season, Sacramento knocked down at least 45.9% in all 3 games. Now, after an ugly shooting effort at Miami Tuesday, look for the Kings to resume knocking down their shots as they catch a Magic team off of their first win of the season. Another note about the total here is that, you can tell from the line on this game being so small (very nearly a pick'em) that a tight game is expected. A tight game can lead to a lot of fouling late and plenty of scramble points at the end as one team tries to stay within striking distance in the final minutes. The over is 29-16 in Kings games when they are off of a loss by 10 points or more. Also, the over is 45-29 when Sacramento is facing a team with a losing record. 8* OVER in Orlando Thursday |
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11-02-16 | Mavs +4 v. Jazz | 81-97 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA Game #515 Wednesday - 8* Dallas Mavericks (+) @ Utah Jazz @ 9:05 ET - What is worse than facing the Spurs in a front end of a back to back? Facing a winless, ultra hungry team in the 2nd half of that back to back situation after having to travel. Yes the Jazz were in San Antonio last night and now they're back home to take on a Dallas team that is 0-3 on the season but well rested and very hungry off of a 1 point loss. The Mavericks went 2-1 against the Jazz last season with the lone loss by just 2 points. Also, Dallas has gotten the straight-up win in 5 of their last 7 trips to Utah. The Mavs are 6-3 (SU and ATS) when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3 games or more. Also, the Mavericks have failed to cover only 14 of their last 41 against Northwest Division opponents. Utah has lost 18 of 31 when off of an upset loss as an underdog. Also, the Jazz are just 15-26 when off of a win by a double digit margin. Make no mistake about it, last night's Utah win over the Spurs was a big one. They will be flat here and the Mavericks will take advantage as they bring a huge effort in hopes of notching their first win of the season. 8* Dallas |
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11-02-16 | Pelicans +6 v. Grizzlies | 83-89 | Push | 0 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA Game #511 Wednesday - 8* New Orleans Pelicans (+) @ Memphis Grizzlies @ 8:05 ET - The Pelicans are winless on the season after a tight loss to Milwaukee last night. All their games have been tight (except the ugly loss at San Antonio) and, with that said, New Orleans is offering some nice road dog value here. Even though the Pelicans are in a back to back spot, the Grizzlies are also in a back to back spot and Memphis got blasted last night. The Grizzlies lost by 36 points last night and they are now playing their 4th game in 5 nights. Even though New Orleans is also in a back to back spot, they had two days off prior to facing the Bucks last night. Memphis is only 16-20 SU in divisional games the past two seasons and here they are being asked to cover a half dozen points. The Pelicans are on a respectable 59-44 ATS run as an underdog. Also, when off of an upset loss as a favorite, New Orleans has gone 19-11 ATS. When playing on back to back days the past two seasons the Pelicans went 22-15 ATS. 8* New Orleans |
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11-02-16 | Raptors v. Wizards +1.5 | 113-103 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 24 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA Game #502 Wednesday - 8* Washington Wizards (+) vs Toronto Raptors @ 7:05 ET - The Wizards swept the Raptors out of the post-season two seasons ago. The Raptors then got some measure of payback by sweeping the regular season series last year 4 games to 0. Needless to say it's now Washington that has payback on their minds and the Wizards are also playing their home opener tonight and have an 0-2 record on the young season. They will be hungry to get into the win column here and they are catching the Raptors off of a tight home win versus Denver and now playing their first road game of the season. The Wizards are 54-33 SU in home games the past two seasons. The Raptors are 31-47 ATS when off of a game where they scored 105 points or more. 8* Washington |
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11-01-16 | Kings +3.5 v. Heat | 96-108 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Game #709 Tuesday - 8* Sacramento Kings (+) @ Miami Heat @ 7:35 ET - Many will look at this match-up and see a back to back situation and figure the Kings are in trouble. However, Sacramento did a good job of limiting minutes with their player rotation in last night's loss at Atlanta and they have fresher legs than you would normally expect for a back to back spot. Also, the fact they blew the game in the fourth quarter last night has the Kings hungry for a bounce back as they eye a road win tonight. Sacramento is catching the Heat at the right time. Miami is already dealing with early season injury issues, they are off of back to back losses, and they are in a lookahead spot here. Up next for the Heat is a trip to Toronto and it is hard for Miami not to be looking ahead to that match-up with a Raptors team that knocked them out of the playoffs last season. Toronto got the best of the Heat in a series that went 7 games in the Eastern Conference semi-finals. While the Heat are looking ahead, the Kings are fully focused on this game as they look to get revenge for losing both match-ups with Miami each of the past two seasons. The Heat are 9-17 ATS in Tuesday match-ups the past two seasons. The Kings are 18-13 ATS in November games the past two seasons. 8* SACRAMENTO KINGS |
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11-01-16 | Rockets +9.5 v. Cavs | 120-128 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #701 Tuesday - 8* Houston Rockets (+) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 6:05 ET - Even though this is a revenge spot for the Cavs (lost at home to Rockets in late March), a team having revenge is not that big of a deal when that team went on to win the Championship in June. That said, there is big value with the big points being offered here. The Cavaliers are 3-0 on the young season but they haven't shot the ball very well in their last two games and, on the other end of the floor, they are allowing a higher and higher shooting percentage with each game so far this season. The Magic hit 45.2% from the field in Saturday's non-covering Cleveland win. The Rockets are 2-1 on the young season and the lone loss came by 6 points. Houston is doing a respectable job on the boards early this season while the Cavs have been outrebounded significantly in their past two games. James Harden (probable for tonight - ankle) and the Rockets are fired up about facing the defending champs. Look for Houston - 15-3 ATS on Tuesdays the past two seasons combined - to give the Cavs all they can handle here. Cleveland is 10-17 ATS in November games the past two seasons and this non-conference match-up is likely to have them looking ahead to all the Eastern Conference opponents that are up ahead on the schedule. 5 of the Cavaliers next 7 games are against Eastern Conference teams that were in the post-season last spring. 8* HOUSTON ROCKETS |
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10-31-16 | Bulls v. Nets OVER 211 | 118-88 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #503/504 Monday - 8* OVER in Brooklyn Nets vs Chicago Bulls @ 7:35 ET - Both of these teams are looking to push the pace under their respective head coaches. Fred Hoiberg is in his second year with the Bulls and, after making some personnel changes in the off-season, he now has the right players for the system he wants to run. Hoiberg's goal is a fast-moving, higher-scoring offense and the Bulls have already averaged 111.5 points in their first two games. Kenny Atkinson is in his first season with the Nets and one of the early goals, although it is definitely a rebuild phase for Brooklyn, is to push the pace. The Nets have averaged 109.3 points per game in their first three games this season. Each of the three meetings between these teams last season went over the total. Also, the over is an incredible 27-8 in Bulls games when facing Atlantic Division opponents. Look for the over to improve to 6-2 in Nets home games with a posted total of 210 or more. The number is big on this total, but it is absolutely justified. 8* OVER in Brooklyn |
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10-31-16 | Nuggets v. Raptors -7 | 102-105 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
NBA TV Blowout - Rickenbach NBA Game #502 Monday - 8* Toronto Raptors (-) vs Denver Nuggets @ 7:35 ET - Nice spot for Toronto to win big at home. Not only are the Raptors off of a home loss to Cleveland Friday, Toronto also has revenge on their minds here. They lost both games against the Nuggets last season. The Raptors lost in Denver by 19 in the most recent meeting and, prior to that, Toronto suffered a home loss by a single point to the Nuggets in the last meeting north of the border. It is payback time here and, though both teams are 1-1 on the season, the Nuggets are expected to be one of the weaker teams in the Western Conference this season while the Raptors are expected to be among the top teams in the Eastern Conference once again this season. Denver is only 7-13 SU in their last 20 games against teams from the Atlantic Division. Also, the Nuggets only got the ATS cover in 7 of those 20 games as well. As a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points, the Raptors have gone 14-4 SU. Their ATS success in that same point spread range has not been as good but, as you can see, the SU win is to be expected. That said, what about the cover this time around? The key here is that Toronto has the double revenge angle working in their favor. Once they get up big in this game they are not going to take their foot off of the gas because they learned their lesson in last year's match-ups with Denver. The Raptors, off of a loss, need to take care of business tonight and they have shot better, defended better, and also been less turnover prone (Tor 29, Den 41) compared to the Nuggets in the first two games of this season. All those edges should lead to a win by double digits for the Raptors on NBA TV Monday evening. 8* TORONTO |
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10-30-16 | Wizards v. Grizzlies +2.5 | 103-112 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
NBA TV Blowout - Rickenbach NBA Game #712 Sunday - 8* Memphis Grizzlies (+) vs Washington Wizards @ 8:05 ET - A key in NBA wagering success certainly involves looking at scheduling because it can create some favorable situations. However, sometimes when it seems a team has some big edge because of scheduling, everyone piles on and the line moves and then it actually creates huge value going the other way. That is precisely the situation here. The Grizzles are in a back to back as they were at New York last night while the Wizards are rested as they have been off since facing Atlanta on Thursday in what is Washington's only game so far this season. The key to the value here is that Memphis is fired up off of a loss (they did get to within two points of the Knicks before New York pulled away in the fourth quarter) and the Grizzlies did not have a single player log more than 30 minutes last night. That means we have legs that are fresher than normal for a back to back spot and we have a team that is hungry because they are off of a loss. The Grizzlies did win their first game of the season at home on Wednesday and they actually have won 16 of their last 20 home match-ups with the Wizards. The result of all of the above? Exceptional value on the home dog. I do feel that Washington is going to be improved this season but Memphis is 8-4 ATS as a home dog of 3 points or less and they won all 8 of those games straight up and they are fired up to bounce back off of last night's loss. They also are 29-18 ATS off of a game where they allowed 105 points or more. The Wizards are 6-10 ATS in Sunday games and that is no fluke. It has to do with how players prepare the day before a game and just keep in mind the Wizards were on the road on a Saturday night. They could be a little flat today and the Grizzlies will come out firing on all cylinders after getting off to a slow start at New York yesterday. 8* MEMPHIS |
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10-29-16 | Grizzlies v. Knicks -116 | 104-111 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
East-West Blowout - Rickenbach NBA Game #508 Â Saturday - 8* New York Knicks (-) vs Memphis Grizzlies @ 7:35 ET - The Knicks are off of a road loss. The Grizzlies are off of a home win. New York fell apart in the 2nd half of their game. Memphis rallied for the win in the final minutes of the 4th quarter of their game. The result of all this? Situational value for the hungrier team in their home opener. Simply put, the Knicks shot very poorly in their opening night loss at Cleveland. Now, after plenty of time work up energy and motivation off of that loss, New York finally has a chance to release all the pent up physical and mental energy on a Memphis team whom they want to beat after losing both match-ups with the Grizzlies each of the past two seasons. The Knicks have made a lot of changes coming into this season. Perhaps the best thing that could have happened to New York was to get embarrassed in their season opener. It is a wake-up call that nothing will come easy and the Knicks are going to give a hard fight against Memphis tonight. New York is on a 21-12 SU run when they are a favorite and with this line in the very short fave range we can get even more value by laying the small price on the money line in this one and, essentially, making this a "pick'em" line on this play. The perception of these teams is flawed right now because of the Game 1 results and I'll step in and take advantage. 8* NEW YORK KNICKS Saturday |
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10-28-16 | Cavs v. Raptors +3.5 | 94-91 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
ESPN Insider - Rickenbach NBA Game #702 Friday - 8* Toronto Raptors +3.5 vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7:05 ET - The last time these teams met it was May 27th at the Air Canada Centre and the Raptors ended up on the wrong end of a 113-87 blowout. That ended Toronto's season and they certainly haven't forgotten that embarrassing setback that occurred in front of their home fans and will be out for payback tonight. That said, I like the home dog value here with the Raptors as, keep in mind, the home team in this series won and covered every other game between these clubs last season. In the playoffs and regular season combined the home teams in this series were on an 8-0 SU and ATS run heading into that Game 6 match-up in the Eastern Conference Finals. Both teams got a win in their season opener this year and both clubs looked impressive. However, the Cavaliers had gone only 24-37 ATS in games played before the All Star break the past two seasons and after their big effort in their home opener (which included ring ceremony, etc) I don't expect the Cavs to be able to match the Raptors intensity in this one. Toronto is very hungry for this game and the Raptors went 32-9 at home in the regular season last year while the Cavs only went 24-17 in road games. I like the fact that Toronto outscored the Pistons in every single quarter of their season opener Wednesday. This was even with the Raptors having a rare off-night from 3-point land as they only made 3 of 18 from downtown. They'll improve on that tonight and they'll again "keep the hammer down" against a Cavs team that was only up by one possession on the Knicks at half-time of their season opener. Certainly Cleveland had an impressive second half but another slow start (on the road and against a quality revenge-minded foe) likely won't end with a Cavs W and that is what I am expecting here. 8* TORONTO RAPTORS |
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10-27-16 | Wizards +4 v. Hawks | 99-114 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Thursday - 8* Washington Wizards +4 @ Atlanta Hawks @ 7:35 ET - This line went from Atlanta -2.5 to the Hawks now being a 4 point favorite and that makes it "go time" with this play. The NBA is all about line value when it comes to the handicapping side of things. That said, it always looks so enticing to play those small favorites but, so often, they are a small favorite with very good reason. On opening night, none of the teams were favored by less than 5.5 points. However, last night there were 5 teams that went off the board as a favorite of 4 points or less. If you played all 5 of those favorites you went 1-4 ATS and those 4 losses against the spread were also outright losses! The point is that the reason Washington (missed playoffs last season) opened up as a small dog even though they are on the road at Atlanta (made it to 2nd round of playoffs last season) is a good reason! The Wizards have responded well to new coach Scott Brooks, Bradley Beal is now healthy, and the changes to the Hawks roster (adding Dwight Howard and losing Al Horford and Jeff Teague) are so significant that Atlanta is absolutely going to have to endure an "adjustment phase" early this season. I don't see them just hitting the floor running on all cylinders right away. Just like my play yesterday on Philly against OKC (never in doubt, covered from start to finish) I went against a team that lost significant personnel (Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka) from the prior season and I am doing the same thing here. Don't be surprised if the Wizards get the road "upset" here. 8* WASHINGTON plus the points Thursday evening |
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10-26-16 | Thunder v. 76ers +9 | 103-97 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
ESPN Insider - Rickenbach NBA Game #714 Wednesday - 8* Philadelphia 76'ers (+) vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 8:05 ET - What we saw last night with Golden State and the Knicks is similar to what we may see with the Thunder tonight. The fact is that teams that had a lot of off-season changes could struggle to find their rhythm early. New York hung around in the first half at Cleveland but then got blasted in the 2nd half and lost by 29. The Warriors were just plain awful all night and they got hammered by 29 on their home floor by San Antonio. The point is that I would not be surprised to see the Thunder struggle in their first game of the season as well and that makes fading them as 9 point road chalk very attractive. This is especially true when you consider that the Sixers, as bad as they have been in recent seasons, have still been known to rise up and cause good teams some problems. When the 76'ers are motivated and at home, they've been known to be a dangerous dog. The Thunder are going to go through a transition period with Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka both having departed the team. Don't get me wrong, the Thunder are still a quality team no doubt but a lot of the scoring load will now be on Russell Westbrook's shoulders and yet he is still also supposed to be a key distributor at the point position. That said, some adjustment time is likely early this season. Philadelphia is fired up about this opportunity to host a strong Western Conference opponent in a nationally televised match-up to open their season. Even though Ben Simmons got hurt in the preseason and is out until at least January, Joel Embiid is finally healthy and he and Dario Saric both looked strong in the preseason while big man Jahlil Okafor is also probable for tonight's game and that offsets the loss of Nerlins Noel to injury. Honestly with Embiid, Okafor, and Noel, the 76'ers had one too many big men. With one being out due to injury they'll be just fine. In terms of ATS history, Philadelphia has covered 3 of the last 4 meeting including each of the last two at home. The 76'ers are on a 15-4 ATS run against Northwest Division opponents and the Thunder are on a 5-15 ATS run against Atlantic Division opponents. Overall, in non-conference games, OKC is on an ugly 24-35 ATS run and the Sixers are on a solid 37-21 ATS run. Look for the Sixers to keep this game much closer than many are expecting as the Thunder look ahead to 5 straight Western Conference match-ups that are up next. Let's face it...could anyone blame OKC for overlooking Philly? 8* PHILADELPHIA 76'ers plus the big points Wednesday |
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10-25-16 | Knicks +9.5 v. Cavs | 88-117 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #501 Tuesday - 8* New York Knicks (+) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7:30 ET - I expect the Knicks to be a much improved team this season and this looks like a great spot to back them right away. They are getting big points because they are visiting the defending NBA champs on opening night. The key to the value here is that the Knicks now have Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah. These are two former Bulls that helped challenge the Cavs greatly in recent match-ups. It was mostly Rose last season as Noah was hurt for much of the year but the Bulls were tough on the Cavs last season. Also, remember that is was the prior season's post-season (May 2015) when both Noah and Rose were on the floor and though Chicago lost that series 4 games to 2, two of the losses came by 5 points or less. The Cavaliers aren't going to hit the floor hitting on all cylinders tonight (no NBA team does right away in the first game). With that said, they're going to be in for a dogfight from a hungry Knicks team that still has veteran Carmelo Anthony plus a rising young star in Kristaps Porzingis. New York can put up big points and has plenty of go-to options on offense and they will keep this game much closer than many expect. Keep in mind the Knicks have covered each of their last 3 visits to Cleveland. Even though the big ceremony will take place in Cleveland tonight for the World Champion Cavs, truth be told, there is more attention right now on the Indians in Cleveland as they take on the Cubs in Game 1 of the World Series. The Knicks are a real threat for an upset tonight and if the Cavaliers do pull away late, it is hard to work up to a double digit margin in a game that is tight all the way to latter stages of fourth quarter. The Knicks are hungry for a strong start after making big noise in the off-season. As for the Cavs, they are known for slow starts and are a combined 24-38 ATS in games prior to the All Star break the past two seasons. 8* NEW YORK KNICKS plus the big points Tuesday Night. |
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06-19-16 | Cavs +5 v. Warriors | Top | 93-89 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers +5 @ Golden State @ 8 ET - The pressure has now all been shifted to the Warriors. After being down 3 games to 1 in this series, the Cavaliers have battled back to knot the series up at 3 and force a Game 7. It would be a monumental failure for Golden State to lose this series on their home floor after being up 3 game to 1. The problem this is creating for the Warriors is the last thing that a team needs is pressure when they already were not shooting the ball well. Believe it or not Golden State has now been held to 42.1% or less from the field in 4 straight games! Conversely, Cleveland is feeling the positive energy of having given themselves a chance in an "anything can happen" Game 7 and the Cavs are riding a wave of emotions that has seen them shoot the ball very well the last 4 games in this series. The Cavaliers have shot at least 46.9% from the field in 4 straight games including an incredible 51.9% or better in 3 of those 4 games. The absence of big man Andrew Bogut in the middle will continue to be an impact for the Warriors interior defense here in Game 7 as well. The fact we are getting 5 points with the team that has won three of the last four games in this series by a double digit margin is a tremendous value given the situational momentum and pressure factors here as well. Look for the Cavaliers to get the upset win here but if they do fall short I expect it to be an epic finish decided by just one possession as the Cavs get the cash either way to finish 9-4 ATS this season in games where they are an underdog! *10* CLEVELAND |
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06-16-16 | Warriors v. Cavs -2 | Top | 101-115 | Win | 100 | 24 h 24 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers -2 vs Golden State @ 9 PM ET - With this line now settling in at a -2 as of Wednesday evening, it is "go time" for me with the Cavaliers. Even though Draymond Green is expected back for the Warriors, the absence of Andrew Bogut is likely to prove to be more impacting than many expect. Even though Bogut hasn't played a lot of minutes in these finals, he has played key minutes where he has a been a force in the paint on the defensive end and he's also been big with some key boards underneath as well. Another key is that Green certainly has been known to get himself into foul trouble and now Bogut is not available to help balance that. The biggest key of all for this game is LeBron James and Company being fired up (which they are!) about the opportunity to have this Game 6 at home and to be able to force an "anything can happen" Game 7. The Cavaliers also want to atone for a poor game in Game 4 on their home floor after they were so dominant for the home fans in their big Game 3 win in Cleveland. Even though Golden State got that win in Game 4 in Cleveland it is important to note that the Warriors have shot 42.1% or worse from the field in THREE STRAIGHT games now. The only reason they won Game 4 was because of some hot three point shooting. That is unlikely to be repeated here as the Warriors have been held to 33.3% or less from beyond the arc in 3 of the last 4 games. James and the Cavs are so hungry I just don't see them being denied for a 2nd time on their home floor in this series. Keep in mind, the Cavs had won 8 straight playoff home games in this post-season before that Game 4 loss. They respond tonight by NOT disappointing the home fans in the proverbial must win situation. *10* CLEVELAND |
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06-13-16 | Cavs +6 v. Warriors | Top | 112-97 | Win | 100 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers +6 @ Golden State @ 9 ET - Not only is Draymond Green expected to be out (suspension) for the Warriors but the Cavs LeBron James is fired up. Those two factors, in my opinion, are not properly factored into this line and there is tremendous line value with the Cavaliers as a sizable dog in a "win or go home" game. Certainly Cleveland disappointed in Game 4 but they will make up for it in Game 5. The Cavs are 16-6 straight-up this season when off of an upset loss as a favorite. The Warriors are only 8-8 ATS the past three seasons when off of an upset win as an underdog. The point is that the situational factors here favor the Cavaliers. Certainly Golden State is hoping to avoid a trip back to Cleveland but I see the hungriest Cavs team you've ever seen taking the floor tonight and I fully expect the outright win as they dominate the boards and get back to shutting down Stephen Curry like they were doing earlier in this series. The Warriors star had a breakout game in Game 4 but we've seen shooting slumps throughout this series for Curry and his teammates. That resumes tonight and Golden State will be in a dogfight tonight just to win this game...let alone get the cover. Grab the value with the points! *10* CLEVELAND |
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06-10-16 | Warriors v. Cavs -1.5 | Top | 108-97 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (-) vs Golden State @ 9 ET - The "knee-jerk reaction" here would be to back the Warriors as they may be expected to bounce back off of an embarrassing loss. However, the reality is that Golden State simply has not played that well on the road in this post-season. With their ugly loss at Cleveland on Wednesday, the Warriors have now lost 5 of their 8 post-season road games. Additionally, they really didn't play that well in 2 of the 3 road wins they did get. Their 7 point wins at Portland (on May 9th, should have blasted them) and at Oklahoma City (on May 28th, were down most of game) truly did not indicate any type of road dominance. The most dominating road win that Golden State has had in this post-season was when they blew out the Rockets in Houston on April 24th and that dominance was put on display in the second half AFTER Stephen Curry got hurt just before half-time. The fact is that Curry is not playing that well in this series and the Warriors are likely to be in trouble again in Game 4 as the Cavaliers are now 8-0 at home in the post-season with an average margin of victory of 22 points per win. The Cavs are simply a different team at home and the hunger of LeBron James and Company was on full display in Game 3 and I expect to see a repeat of the aggressive style in Game 4. Certainly this game is likely to be much closer than the Game 3 win but, that said, there is still great value only having to lay a very small number here with the Cavs. Look for the Cavaliers to continue dominating the glass and look for the Warriors shooting struggles away from home (under 41.5% from the field in 3 straight games) to continue Friday. *10* CLEVELAND |
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06-08-16 | Warriors v. Cavs OVER 205 | 90-120 | Win | 100 | 16 h 15 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* OVER 205 in Cleveland vs Golden State @ 9 ET - When you consider what happened in Game 2, it is hard to believe the Cavaliers actually led the Warriors very late in the 3rd quarter of Game 1. The fact is that Sunday's game was simply a "train wreck" for the Cavs and a return to Cleveland with an extra off day between games should do wonders for this team. LeBron James and company are, of course, very nearly "left for dead" at this point in the series but I don't see the will of James allowing this team to totally get trampled. If they do fail to get the win tonight and go down 3-0 in this series, I wouldn't see that happening without a huge effort on the offensive end in front of the home fans tonight. That said, whether or not Cleveland manages to get back into this series with a win in Game 3, I do expect plenty of offense from James and company in this one. The Cavs were thoroughly embarrassed in the 33 point loss on Sunday as they scored just 77 points. It's hard to believe that this is a Cleveland team that had scored at least 100 points in 26 of their last 29 games prior to this series. Look for the Cavs to respond in a big way tonight. The Cavaliers are happy to be back home where they have scored at least 99 points in 20 straight games. Before Sunday's ugly loss, the Cavs had been 6-3 to the over this season when off of a loss by 10 points or more. Look for them to respond big here. The over is 7-1 this season in Golden State games when the Warriors are off of a game where they held their opponent to 85 points or less. It is no fluke either as their record in that situation the past three seasons combined is 20-7 to the over! It is only natural to have a let up on defense after you've thoroughly dominated an opponent and that is what I expect to see tonight. The Warriors will still score plenty but their defense "lets down their guard" in this one. Expect a shootout here. *8* OVER in Cleveland |
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06-05-16 | Cavs +7 v. Warriors | Top | 77-110 | Loss | -115 | 47 h 39 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers +7 @ Golden State @ 8:05 ET - The Warriors won Game 1 of the Finals Thursday by 15 points so I have a quick question for you. How big was Golden State's lead when only a minute and a half was left in the 3rd quarter? It's a trick question of course! The Warriors weren't even winning the game at that point. Cleveland led the game with 13.5 minutes to go. The fact is that credit certainly should go to the Warriors for the way they pulled away but the Cavaliers have now shaken off any remaining rust from the layoff after knocking off the Raptors and the Cavs will be ready in Game 2. I don't expect Cleveland to again shoot 38% from the field and certainly their rebounding edge is worth mentioning as I expect that to continue. The Cavaliers are the hungrier team but turned the ball over too much in Game One and certainly faded down the stretch which is certainly atypical of a team led by LeBron James. The Cavs will respond as they've done many times before in situations like this. Since the last time they faced Golden State in regular season action (January 18th) the Cavaliers had been held to 40% or less from the field only 7 times. Cleveland won their next game 6 of the 7 times. Of course we don't have to get a SU win here to get the cash but that factor has me raising this selection to a top play as the value is certainly there with the points. In Game One the Cavs were only getting 5.5 or 6 points but now, as of Friday night at least, the Cavs are getting 6.5 or 7 points. It's a lot of value for the betting markets to be giving to a hungry dog that "hung with" the Warriors for 3 full quarters before falling apart in the 4th quarter Thursday. I don't see a repeat of the collapse in Game Two and it would not surprise me to see the Cavs when this outright as Kyrie Irving responds off of a tough game. Grab the significant points here. *10* CLEVELAND +7 |
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06-02-16 | Cavs +6 v. Warriors | Top | 89-104 | Loss | -115 | 57 h 49 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers +6 @ Golden State @ 9:05 ET Thursday - The Warriors snuck by the Thunder but it wasn't pretty. This is not the same Golden State that simply steamrolled opposition during the majority of the regular season. The Warriors have been tested both mentally and physically by having to come back from a 3-1 series deficit to knock off the Thunder. Certainly Golden State deserves credit for that but now they face a Cavaliers team that is healthier than ever with the Big Three of LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, and Kevin Love. Last year was so frustrating for Cleveland...thinking of what might have been. Now they finally get a chance (healthy!) to redeem themselves and they have a huge edge of being able to sit back and watch the Warriors having to throw everything they had at Oklahoma City just to get to this point while the Cavs were resting up and game planning for this opportunity. As result of this, I fully expect the Cavaliers to jump on the Warriors and hit them hard early in Game One. We get line value because of the Cavs being on the road and Golden State's home court edge certainly is not as dominant as it had looked. The Warriors at home had a few miracle covers, got upset by the Thunder in one game, and even barely got by the Blazers in GS when they closed out that series. Conversely, the Cavaliers are definitely playing their best basketball of the season. The Cavs are 12-2 SU in these playoffs and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 postseason games. LeBron and Company have been waiting for this opportunity for so long and don't forget that last season Kyrie Irving was only able to play in one game in these finals and Kevin Love missed all 6 games. LeBron James felt he had a lot on his shoulders in this series last year (to say the least) but now has his full supporting cast. The results should be a fantastic rematch and I expect the Cavs to "steal" game one but certainly am grabbing the points which offer exceptional value and that makes this one a Top Play for me. *10* Cleveland |
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05-30-16 | Thunder +7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 88-96 | Loss | -108 | 38 h 33 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Oklahoma City Thunder +7.5 @ Golden State @ 9 ET - There is no denying that the Thunder lost a heart-breaker in Game 6 on Saturday. They looked like the right side to have, no question about it, for all but the last few minutes of the game. If there is one team that has already shown multiple times this post-season that they could bounce back from a bad game without question, it is Oklahoma City. It would not surprise me to see the Thunder win this game outright at Golden State. The Warriors no longer have the same invincibility they had on their home floor before the post-season got underway. Additionally, the 7 point margin of victory for the Warriors in Game 6 helps lead to line value here because a turnover-plagued final few minutes of the game is what resulted in the Thunder giving that game away. It had no business being a 7 point final in favor of Golden State. The result of that though is additional line value here for Oklahoma City. Certainly it is highly unlikely that the Thunder are again going to get outscored 63 to 9 from three point land! That 54 point margin of difference from beyond the arc certainly played a large role in the outcome of the game as the Warriors made 21 of 44 three pointers while the Thunder made only 3 of 23. Oklahoma City has the resolve and the right match-up edges to beat the Warriors at Golden State. Even if they do fall short the last two OKC losses in this series have come by just single digits. Everyone has seen, throughout this postseason, that the Thunder are loaded with grit and determination. They now have lost back to back games to the Warriors and this is noteworthy because Oklahoma City has not lost three straight games in nearly SEVEN months! All the way back in early November is the only time this entire season that OKC has lost three straight games. If they do lose this one straight-up, I look for the Thunder to still get the cash but I absolutely expect them to play their toughest, strongest, grittiest game of the post-season and I look for them to dominate the boards and for the shooting stats from three point land to play out much differently in this one. Keep in mind, the Warriors had been held to 32% from beyond the arc in the past three games combined before the insane shooting night in Game 6. The Thunder are fired up after what happened on their home floor and they'll be regrouped and ready to win for the 6th time in 9 road games this postseason and, keep in mind, that's an impressive road stat when you consider that Golden State and San Antonio (OKC's prior series) were the two best home teams in the regular season! *10* OKLAHOMA CITY |
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05-28-16 | Warriors v. Thunder -2 | Top | 108-101 | Loss | -103 | 38 h 31 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Oklahoma City Thunder -2 vs Golden State @ 9:05 ET Saturday - Amazingly the Thunder have not lost back to back games since early April. Oklahoma City put up a good fight at Golden State in Game 5 Thursday night but they fell just short. Now we catch the Thunder off of a loss which is a situation that has seen them go 6-0 SU and 6-0 ATS dating back to early April. Oklahoma City won those 6 games by an incredible average margin of 24 points per victory! Included in this perfect run is a 28 point victory over Golden State in Game 3 of this series after dropping Game 2 on the road. I don't expect this game to necessarily be decided by such a blowout margin but I certainly like having Oklahoma City on their home floor laying only a bucket in a spot where they've dominated for many weeks. The Thunder have won 12 of their last 14 home games and the Warriors, once consider invincible, have lost 4 of their 6 road playoff games. Curry, Thompson, and Green combined to make only 5 of 19 three pointers in Game 5 and though that still managed to "cut it" on their home floor, that won't get the job done on the road in Game 6. The bad news for Warriors fans is that the Golden State shooting is unlikely to improve on the road. The Thunder play in a raucous arena where they control the tempo and their defensive stops really get the arena rocking. Oklahoma City has held Golden State to only 30% from three point land in the two games in OKC in this series so far. The Thunder had a huge rebounding edge in each of the two games played at Oklahoma City and Durant, Westbrook, and Roberson all had double digits in boards in Game 4 here. The Thunder have proven all along that they have the talent level and moxie to match up with the Warriors and OKC big man Adams, along with the defensive presence of Ibaka, continue to show the "grit" of the Thunder. With the hunger that all these players, led especially by Durant and Westbrook, have shown throughout these playoffs, I do not see these guys being denied on their home floor. Therefore, the short number here is truly a fantastic value and I look for the Thunder to advance to the NBA Finals as they once again "step up" on their home floor off of a loss. *10* OKLAHOMA CITY |
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05-27-16 | Cavs v. Raptors OVER 196 | Top | 113-87 | Win | 100 | 32 h 10 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* OVER 196 in Toronto vs Cleveland @ 8:35 ET Friday - A crazy fourth quarter prevented Game Five of this series from going over the total on Wednesday night. Even though the game was a Cavaliers blowout, it still should have had more scoring in the fourth quarter than it did and definitely was a crazy finish that frustrated totals players (like us) who seemed to have the right side of the total for nearly the entire game. To come right back with the over here certainly requires justification and we have that here. The Cavaliers had a poor effort in Game 3 at Toronto as it was almost as if they underestimated the Raptors after so handily winning each of the first two games at Cleveland. Other than that dismal 84 point effort, note that the Cavs have averaged 109.5 points per game in the other four games of this series. In other words, they'll "get theirs" Friday at Toronto as they look to close out the series. However, throughout these playoffs, the Raptors have already shown they are a different team when they are at home. Toronto has won 5 of their 6 home games in the past two series (with the Cavs now and with the Heat previously) and the Raptors have averaged 102 points per game in these home games. If we get the Raptors to the 102 mark they've been averaging at home (where they've been shooting much better than on the road) and the Cavs when this game by 6 points as they are forecast to, this game gets up into the 210 range for points. Of course the reason the total is being held so low here is because the odds makers have had to over-adjust due to some crazy finishes like we saw in Game Five that have helped lead the way to some unders in this series that should not have occurred. After getting embarrassed on Wednesday, look for the Raptors to come up with a huge effort in Game 6. However, the Cavaliers are certainly surging with confidence after the huge win and looking to close this out. Being that this is an elimination game and it is projected to be close late (based on the 6 point line) you can certainly expect late fouls and free throws to help our cause here, if even needed! The fact is I expect this one to fly over the total as the Cavs know they need to keep the "pedal to the metal" but the Raptors play with so much more confidence in the offensive end when at home. The over is 9-4 this season when Cleveland is off of a game where they held their opponent to 85 points or less. The over is 11-5 the last 3 seasons combined when Toronto is off of a game where they were held to 85 points or less. The Raptors also are 24-10 to the over the past three seasons combined when they are off of a loss by a double digit margin. *10* OVER in Toronto |
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05-26-16 | Thunder v. Warriors OVER 220 | 111-120 | Win | 100 | 23 h 57 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* OVER 220 in Golden State vs Oklahoma City @ 9 ET - Three of the four games so far in this series have stayed under the total. But Game Four was nothing short of ridiculous as the teams combined for 176 points through 3 quarters so they were on pace for about 235 points for the game. Inexplicably, Golden State fell apart with a 12 point performance in the fourth quarter and the game fell well short of going over as a result. This is helping to give us line value in Game Five because this total has come down some more and yet certainly the Warriors are unlikely to fall apart in the fourth quarter of this game. In fact, they're facing playoff elimination and they're on their home floor and they will battle this to the very end if the Thunder have the late lead. Of course, the Warriors are a 7 point favorite for a reason but, although I expect them to put up big points here, they have proven incapable of slowing down the Thunder. Oklahoma City has scored an average of 115 points per game in their three wins over the Warriors in this series and the Thunder are simply loaded with confidence right now as they are getting contributions from all over the floor. The last time Golden State was playing at home off of a loss in this series it was Game 2 and the Warriors but up 118 points in that win, their lone victory so far in this series. I don't see the Warriors going away without a fight and that means a huge performance should be expected from them tonight with offense leading the way as they will step up with a much better shooting performance now that they are back on their home floor. The over is 5-2, 71% this season when the Warriors are off of a loss by a margin of 10 points or more. They respond tonight but the Thunder hang right with them and that means a high-scoring shootout should be expected here. *8* OVER in Golden State |
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05-25-16 | Raptors v. Cavs OVER 199 | Top | 78-116 | Loss | -103 | 25 h 17 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play OVER 199 in Cleveland vs Toronto @ 8:35 ET - With the Raptors winning both games in Toronto we truly "have a series" now. Toronto has tied things up at 2-2 and is rolling with confidence (even on the offensive end) after scoring 102 points per game in those two games north of the border. As for the Cavaliers, they certainly are not lacking in confidence when it comes to putting points on the board. The Cavs bounce back from scoring only 84 points in Game 3 by scoring 99 in Game 4. Prior to being held under the century mark in these two games, the Cavaliers had scored at least 100 points in 20 straight games. Cleveland averaged 108 points per game during this 20 game stretch and they will be ready to explode (in a positive way) Wednesday night after the back to back losses at Toronto. The reason I am big on the total here and not on the side is that the Cavaliers are very likely to score big tonight but laying double digits with Cleveland doesn't sound particularly appealing considering the Raptors now all the confidence in the world that they can "hang with Cleveland". They proved that in Toronto and now they can carry that over to some better performances south of the border. The over is 6-3, 67% in the L9 Raptors playoff games where Toronto is in a series that is tied. The over is 6-3, 67% this season in Cavaliers games when they are at home and the total is posted between 195 and 199.5 points. Also, the over is 9-5 the last 14 playoff games where Cleveland is in a series that is tied. Additionally, with that game four over, the over is now 14-9 this season when the Cavaliers are playing with revenge. LeBron James and Company will have the pedal to the metal from start to finish in this one. But with the Raptors shooting better and playing with a lot more confidence, the way to go here is with the total and expect an absolute shootout! *10* OVER in Cleveland |
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05-24-16 | Warriors v. Thunder | 94-118 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 48 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* Golden State Warriors Pick'em @ Oklahoma City @ 9 ET - Just when you think it may be "over" for Golden State, look for them to fight back. I have been riding Oklahoma City throughout this post-season as they upset the Spurs when no one gave them a chance and now against the Warriors they may very well pull off the series upset as well. However, I expect this game to go to Golden State in full "bounce back" mode. I can use the "straight up" trends here rather than the ATS trends since the line is a pick'em and the SU results are especially noteworthy. The Warriors are 12-0 (10-2 ATS) this season when playing with revenge. Also, when off of an upset loss as a favorite, Golden State has gone 11-0 (8-2-1 ATS) this season. After a loss by 10 points or more, the Warriors are 6-0 (4-2 ATS) this season. When trailing in a playoff series the past few seasons, Golden State is a combined 5-0 SU and ATS! No matter how you look at it this is definitely a team that knows how to respond to a disappointing effort and certainly the 133 points allowed on Sunday has the full attention of coach Steve Kerr and this Warriors team. They will assuredly respond in Game 4 on Tuesday. Also note the following in-season trends for the Thunder that are "in play" tonight: Oklahoma City is 1-3 ATS when off of an upset win as an underdog and also 14-21 ATS after allowing 105 points or more in their prior game. *8* GOLDEN STATEÂ |
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05-23-16 | Cavs -5.5 v. Raptors | Top | 99-105 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers -5.5 @ Toronto @ 8:35 ET - After going 10-0 to open up the playoffs, the Cavaliers finally lost one on Saturday at Toronto. Of the Cavs most recent 9 wins, only 2 came by a single digit margin. With Cleveland 15-5 SU off of an upset loss as a favorite and 6-2 SU this season when off of a loss by a margin of 10 points or more, the Cavaliers can be expected to bounce back here. Certainly Toronto deserves credit for their fantastic performance in Game Three but you can bet (literally!) that the Cavaliers will make the appropriate adjustments. You can also bet that Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving aren't going to combine to again go 4 for 28 from the field like they did on Saturday! The Cavs still lead this series 2 games to 1 and the Cavaliers are 14-2 SU (and 10-6 ATS) the past three seasons combined when they are leading in a playoff series. The Cavs will make some changes to counter the production of the Raptors Bismack Biyombo who had a huge game on the board and on defense in Game 3. Toronto is 5-9 ATS this season (and 14-24 ATS the past three seasons) when they are off of an upset win as an underdog. Also, this is still a Raptors teams that has gone 8-19 ATS in all playoff games the past three seasons combined. If this game was in Cleveland the Cavs would be favored by at least double what the spread is for this one. Take advantage of the line value of the Cavaliers being on the road in a bounce back spot. It is payback time for LeBron James and company Monday. *10* CLEVELAND |
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05-22-16 | Warriors v. Thunder +3 | Top | 105-133 | Win | 100 | 78 h 41 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Oklahoma City Thunder +3 vs Golden State @ 8 ET Sunday - The long layoff between games two and three of this series is a huge benefit for the Thunder. The best thing for the Warriors after they blew out Oklahoma City in Game Two on Wednesday would have been to walk right back onto the court Friday and pick up right where they left off. Instead, based on a scheduling quirk, not only is the West off on Friday when you would have expected them to play next, they don't even play Saturday either. This a huge edge for the Thunder who have plenty of time to regroup and prepare to get back on track after Game Two got away from them. Oklahoma City was actually tied with the Warriors with about a minute and a half to go in the second quarter Wednesday when Golden State suddenly erupted. That big push right before half that opened up a solid Warriors lead of 7 points at the half changed the momentum of the game and the mindset of the Thunder who had battled so hard to stay with Golden State all the way in the first 23 minutes of the game just like they did in all 48 on Monday when they got that upset win over the Warriors. The Thunder now have had a full chance to regroup and are still happy they got the split in Golden State. Also, an angry Russell Westbrook (rough game two for him) is a focused Russell Westbrook and that means his "A game" will be brought to Game 3 on Sunday. Just like he did against the Spurs, Westbrook is capable of elevating his level of play and very nearly practically willing his team to victory. When the Warriors got blasted at San Antonio in the second round, they responded by winning the next game and gutting out the victory even though the game was at San Antonio. Now, they are in a "bounce back" mode again and they get this game on their home floor where the Thunder have won 10 of their last 12 games and the 2 losses came by a total of only 5 points. In the playoffs Golden State is only 2-2 on the road and they faced a Houston team wrought with team chemistry issues and a Trail Blazers team that only advanced because the Clippers lost both their star players (Paul and Griffin). The point is that the Warriors haven't exactly been "road warriors" in these playoffs and now they face a team with a ton of talent, a rebounding machine, and that plays with tons of heart and intensity especially when on their home floor. Look for the Thunder to even this up on Sunday night. Huge edge with the extra prep time for coach Billy Donovan and Company to regroup for this one. *10* OKLAHOMA CITY |
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05-21-16 | Cavs v. Raptors OVER 197.5 | 84-99 | Loss | -106 | 35 h 47 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* OVER 197.5 in Toronto vs Cleveland @ 8:35 ET - Tough beats for those who had the over in the first two games of this series. Inexplicably, the teams combined for just 37 points in the 4th quarter of game one and 42 points in the fourth quarter of game two. This left each game just one shot short of going over the total. Now in game three we are getting line value with this total having been adjusted downward. The total in the first game opened up at 202.5 and the second game the posted total rose as high as 199 before dropping before tip-off. The point is that this total should be higher than it is. Why? Because both of the first two games had no business staying under the total and there is a key factor as to why game three will go over the total. The Raptors are back home in Toronto and the Cavaliers are about a five point favorite for this one. Of course if this is a tight game late that means extra free throws for the team in the lead and extra three pointers being jacked up for the trailing team. The result should be a bit more of an "extended" game then what we've seen in the first two games of this series. Of course we shouldn't need any late "magic" in this one because I look for the Raptors Lowry and DeRozan to finally shoot better after struggling in the first two games of this series on the road. The Cavaliers are certainly going to get theirs Saturday! 10-0 in the playoffs and the Cavs have scored at least 100 points in 20 straight games and they are averaging 108 points in their last 25 games! The Raptors have averaged 104 points per game at home this season. The over is 24-9 in Raptors games the past three seasons when they are off of a loss by a double digit margin. The over is 24-14 in Cavaliers games when they are off of a win by 10 points or more. *8* OVER in Toronto |
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05-19-16 | Raptors v. Cavs OVER 198 | Top | 89-108 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* OVER 198 in Cleveland vs Toronto @ 8:35 ET - Game one of this series went over the closing number but it truly was an under for most all bettors as the game did not move below the eventual total of 199 until very late. A ridiculously low-scoring 4th quarter is the only reason that game didn't fly over the total as it certainly was on pace all the way through the first three quarters. Though tonight's game may indeed by decided by close to the dozen points that the Cavs are favored by, it should still end up being much closer than the 31 point Cavaliers blowout win in Game One. That will make certain that we see a much more competitive fourth quarter in this one. In other words, this time the high-scoring carries all the way through. The Raptors will respond after the embarrassing loss and the over is 10-4 this season (and 24-8 the last 3 seasons) when Toronto is off of a loss by a margin of ten points or more. Also, the over is 4-1 this season (and 11-4 the last 3 seasons) when the Raptors are off of a game where they were held to 85 points or less. The Cavaliers are 6-2 to the over this season in home games with a posted total between 195 and 199.5 points. Also, when off of a game where they held their opponent to 85 points or less, the over is 9-3 for Cleveland. The over is also 24-13 this season when the Cavaliers are off of a win by a double digit margin. After their biggest margin of victory ever in franchise history playoff action, it is only natural that the Cavs will suffer a bit of a letdown in defensive intensity for Game Two. *10* OVER in Cleveland |
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05-18-16 | Thunder +8.5 v. Warriors | 91-118 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 11 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* Oklahoma City Thunder +9 @ Golden State @ 9:05 ET - In the tradition of the "zig zag" theory I am quite sure most of the world is going to be lined up on the Warriors tonight. But, just like how I rode the Thunder in their road games at San Antonio I am recommending the same thing in Game Two of this series as what I recommended in Game One. Grab the generous points with Oklahoma City. What is being over-estimated here is how Golden State simply must bounce back at home after already losing a game in this series. Remember how the same things was being said about San Antonio (no way they lose on their home floor twice)? What is being underestimated here is that neither Andrew Bogut nor Steph Curry are truly 100%. The Warriors were a -6 with Bogut on the floor in game one and Golden State also was a -6 with Curry on the floor in game one. Curry even had an uncharacteristic 7 turnovers in the game. The worst news of all for GS is that Oklahoma City won Game One even though Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook shot a combined 17 of 51 (33%) from the field! That is SCARY news for the Warriors. Not one but BOTH of the Thunder stars had "off games" Monday and yet Oklahoma City still got the upset win AT Golden State. Wednesday could spell disaster for the Warriors. Why? Because the Thunder can be extremely aggressive, relentless, and relaxed all at the same time! Why is that? Because after today this series takes a break until Sunday at Oklahoma City. The Thunder have already "stolen" a game at Golden State. The extra rest coming up after tonight's game means that OKC can "go for the jugular" tonight and put a ton of pressure on the Warriors and a ton of energy into this contest. Durant and Westbrook played a lot of minutes in Game One and, with the way the scheduling works out, there is no reason they can't do it again in Game Two. As far as what I mean by "relaxed" there is no pressure on the Thunder here. None whatsover. They already got a win at GS. That means tonight I look for MORE of Durant's and Westbrook's shots to fall. They will be relaxed and in a better flow offensively and this spells trouble for Golden State. The only reason I am not going with a top play here is that I certainly do respect the Warriors here and I already had a big top play in going against them in Game One. However, I do absolutely feel that this is a great situation for the Thunder while the whole world is likely to line up on Golden State. Even more line value for dog players. Grab it. *8* OKLAHOMA CITY |
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05-17-16 | Raptors v. Cavs OVER 201.5 | Top | 84-115 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play OVER 201.5 in Cleveland vs Toronto @ 8:35 ET - The Cavaliers have had a long layoff. The best way to get going after a lot of time off is to have a home game against a team that just had a 2nd straight 7 games series. The Raptors have played 14 games in this post-season while the Cavaliers have played the minimum of 8 as the Cavs are off of back to back sweeps while Toronto has been pushed to the limit in each of their series. The way I see Game One playing out is the Cavs are looking to run the weary Raptors right out of the arena. The Cavaliers will push the tempo, get a lot of points in transition, and continue to knock down their three pointers! Cleveland's offensive production in the postseason has been insane and the home crowd will have the Cavaliers flying all over the floor in this game. The Raptors have seen their backcourt come alive as that keyed their ability to get past the Heat when that series tightened up. Also, they saw Bismack Biyombo step up huge in the paint in Game 7 and they got big point production from him filling in with the absence of Jonas Valanciunas being somewhat overcome. The Cavaliers are averaging 110 points per game in their home games in this postseason. The Raptors have allowed 98 points per game in their last 5 playoff road games. The average score of the last 4 meetings between these teams is Cleveland 109.5, Toronto 103.5 for a total of 213 points per game. This total moved down from it's opening number and this is offering even more value for the over. The Cavaliers want to make a statement in Game One and they will push the tempo on their home floor. The Raptors had their highest scoring road game in each playoff series in their first road game of the series. With the way the Cavs are scoring on their home floor, those two factors combine for what should be a shootout in Game One. *10* OVER in Cleveland |
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05-16-16 | Thunder +7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 108-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Oklahoma City Thunder +7.5 @ Golden State @ 9:05 ET - The Thunder continue to get very little credit for having dispatched of the Spurs. Remember that everyone was saying they couldn't wait to see San Antonio match-up with Golden State in the Western Conference Finals. The clamoring about the Spurs/Warriors impending series came even larger when SA annihilated OKC by 32 points in Game 1 of their 2nd round series. Of course now that the Thunder went on to win 4 of the last 5 games including each of the next two match-ups in San Antonio, everyone is just saying that the Spurs were old, coach Popovich has lost his abilities, etc. The point I am making is many just don't realize how good this OKC team is. The Thunder dominate the boards because they have big men like Adams and Kanter and Ibaka is a continued force defensively and on the glass. These are the guys you hear less about because, of course, Durant and Westbrook are the stars that get all the hype. The fact is that the Thunder are well coached (give Donovan some credit!) and are built well to give the Warriors some trouble in this series. The fact that one of Golden State's big men, Bogut, is likely to play tonight but is still trying to work his way back from an injury and Curry still may not be 100% combines to give even more value to the underdog Thunder here. The Warriors are certainly a phenomenal team but let's not forget that their first round opponent was a dysfunctional Rockets team filled with internal conflict and their 2nd round opponent was lucky to even be there. Why was Portland lucky? Because the injuries to the Clippers Griffin and Paul prevented what would have been a dandy of a 2nd round showdown between the Clips and the Warriors. The point is that Golden State hasn't really been tested yet but they're about to get tested fully by a full-tilt Thunder attack that has no fear of anyone. They are playing like a team that is possessed as they attack the boards and rotate well on defense, etc. I like hungry dogs and teams that feel like they are being given no respect. Everyone is already talking about how the NBA Finals will play out featuring the Cavs versus Warriors! The Thunder have heard and have plenty of motivation here...not that a shot at the NBA Finals isn't already motivation enough. An outright upset in Game One is what I expect but of course I am grabbing the available points. This is the game the Thunder could catch the Warriors a little overconfident. It is a fantastic situational play and that's why it gets my highest rating! *10* OKLAHOMA CITY |
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05-15-16 | Heat +4.5 v. Raptors | Top | 89-116 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Miami Heat +4.5 @ Toronto @ 3:35 ET - This series has been so tight with many close games that, first off, there is simply inherent value in having the points in this match-up. However, there is certainly some other strong reasoning for grabbing Miami in this one. Toronto simply relies too heavily on their backcourt and the overall poor shooting from their star guards has certainly hurt the Raptors throughout this series. Toronto's reliance on their backcourt has become an even bigger issue with the injury to big man Jonas Valanciunas as his absence means even more of the scoring load falls on the Raptors guards. Toronto has a history that does not bode well for a huge Game 7 match-up like this whereas the Heat have proven time and time again that they are resilient with Dwyane Wade leading the way. Miami has won 3 straight series where the Heat were down 3-2 in each series. This is part of a long-term run for Miami that has seen them go 7-1 in elimination games. Simply put, the Heat have shown they can be at their best when they are feeling the "heat". This is certainly not the case for the Raptors who, with Friday's loss, are now 2-6 all-time in games where they have a chance to eliminate their opponent. Overall, Toronto is 6-17 ATS in all playoff games the past three seasons. Conversely, the Heat are now on a long-term 36-20 run in second round playoff games. Miami is also 11-2 SU in Sunday games this season while Toronto is 5-10 ATS. If the Raptors eke out the win here it is likely to be by a single possession or on a last second shot. But, truly, there is every reason to believe the Heat win this game outright and certainly the line value (in this fiercely contested series) is with having the handful of points. *10* MIAMI |
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05-13-16 | Raptors v. Heat -4 | Top | 91-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Miami Heat -4 vs Toronto @ 8:05 ET - The Heat came back from 20 points down against the Raptors in Game 5 and that was on the road. Miami cut the Toronto lead from 20 all the way down to just 1 in the fourth quarter. That says a lot about this Heat team even though they ultimately fell short of the cover against the Raptors on Wednesday. Look for Miami to bounce back tonight on their home floor. Dwayne Wade was drafted all the way back in 2003 and only two times since then has an Eastern foe ever managed to win two games in Miami in a series. The Raptors already stole one in this series and I don't see them winning another one here. Toronto is an ugly 1-4 all-time in their series closeout opportunities away from home. The Heat are 7-1 the last 8 times they faced elimination and that includes already going 2-0 in that situation this season as they rallied from a 3-2 deficit to knock off the Hornets in round one of this post-season. The Raptors finally got big games from their key scorers in Game 5 but, overall, Toronto's highly regarded back-court has shot poorly in this series, and I look for the subpar shooting to resume now that the Raptors are back on the road for Game 6. Toronto is 0-6 all-time when leading in a playoff series including 1-5 ATS. Conversely, the Heat are on a long-term 27-18 SU and ATS run when trailing in a playoff series. The Heat have been playing excellent defense in this post-season and the small number on this game makes the home team well worth the investment as their 4 home wins in this post-season have come by an average margin of 21 points per game. *10* MIAMI |
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05-12-16 | Spurs v. Thunder +2 | Top | 99-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Oklahoma City Thunder +2 vs San Antonio @ 8:35 ET - All the talk in San Antonio was about how the Spurs would match up with the Warriors in the next series. Maybe the talk should have focused on how much Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, and Tony Parker have aged! Of course the Spurs have new younger talent like LaMarcus Aldridge and Kawhi Leonard but there is only so much those guys can do. What the Spurs have quickly found out is that the overall talent and athleticism of the Thunder - including stars Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook - could prove to be too much. Having to head for Oklahoma City in Game 6 and facing elimination, some may expect the Spurs to rally the troops but, after blowing a 13 point lead in Game 5 on their home floor, it is evident who wants this series more. That said, I don't see the Thunder blowing the opportunity to close this series out on their home floor. History is certainly not on the Spurs side here because coach Gregg Popovich has a 2-10 record...you read that write...just 2 wins in 12 chances when on the road in the playoffs and facing elimination. Many of those came by double digits and nearly all of them came by at least 7 points. That said, to be getting OKC as a home dog here means even more value because many times the Spurs have fallen well short in a spot like this. Aldridge started this series in fantastic fashion but has now struggled for three straight games. Danny Green had a big game 5 but it would be tough to duplicate that shooting effort on the road. He only made 30% of his threes on the road in the regular season and big scoring efforts from him have been infrequent this season. The Spurs have covered only 5 of their last 14 road games and 2 of those covers came against Memphis and 1 against Minnesota. San Antonio just hasn't been up to par against the better teams in the league and the Thunder certainly are roaring like a freight train right now and I don't see the Spurs being able to successfully stop them in Oklahoma City given the hunger this team has put on full display in coming back from a 2-1 series deficit. *10* OKLAHOMA CITY |
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05-11-16 | Blazers +13 v. Warriors | Top | 121-125 | Win | 100 | 16 h 47 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers +13 @ Golden State @ 10:35 ET - The Trail Blazers have had the lead at half in each of the last 3 games and the average margin was 10 points in favor of Portland! Give the Warriors credit for coming back to win 2 of those 3 games. However, all 4 games in this series have been decided by 12 points or less and one of those two aforementioned wins came in OT as Stephen Curry put on a ridiculous performance in the extra stanza. Arguably one of the greatest OT performances of all time. Curry though is actually part of the key as to why I like this play so much. I don't see Portland going away without a fight in this series. The Trail Blazers have shown plenty of heart and grit and while they are certainly disappointed about the Game 4 loss in OT they also are professional players that know their season is over if they do not win tonight. That said, I look for the Blazers to give another huge effort tonight and even if Golden State still manages to get a big lead and is up by say 15 points as we get into the latter stages of this game, do you really think Curry is going to be on the floor? Of course not! The Warriors need to protect their star players (in particularly that star) and that means if they are up big late in this game they definitely need to be sitting guys. They will start looking ahead at facing either OKC or SA in the Western Conference finals and Golden State will certainly be more concerned with staying healthy for that match-up rather than worrying about whether or not they win this game by 15 points or just 10 points or even high single digits for the final margin. The point is that all of the above is IF the Warriors are up huge. I honestly would not be surprised, based on how Game 4 played out WITH Curry on the floor, if the Blazers are in this game all the way. This is their season on the line and they dominated the glass in Monday's game but just got a little sloppy with too many turnovers in the game. Even with that it was still a game decided in OT. Portland is 9-4 ATS this season when playing with home loss revenge. Certainly Golden State has been a "covering machine" while the Trail Blazers have not but the Warriors certainly were fortunate in their Game 4 cover and that is helping to result in an inflated line here for Game 5. I'll gladly step in and take advantage of the big number as per the reasoning above. *10* PORTLAND |
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05-11-16 | Heat +4.5 v. Raptors | 91-99 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 2 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* Miami Heat +4.5 or 5 @ Toronto @ 8:05 ET - After opening up at Toronto -4 this line quickly moved to -4.5 and we are now seeing lines as high as -5 as of early gameday morning. The Raptors are getting the money as many expect them to bounce back on their home floor. However, let's not forget that 3 of the 4 games in this series have gone to overtime. Also, the one game that didn't was only decided by 4 points. Considering those factors as well as the absence of the Raptors Jonas Valanciunas being more costly than the absence of Hassan Whiteside in terms of how those two bigs had contributed early in the series, and you have the makings of some extreme line value here with taking the points. The Raptors backcourt continues to struggle as they've shot poorly for weeks now! Simply put, Toronto is nothing special and yet they're grabbing the money right now in this critical Game 5 situation. I'll gladly grab the team that has a history of more postseason success and is getting a handful of points here. Miami is 6-3 SU and ATS in 2nd round playoff games the past three seasons. The Raptors are 5-16 ATS in all playoff games the past three seasons. Also, the continued low-scoring trend in this series favors gritty Miami over the Raptors without Valanciunas. Miami is 13-5 SU when they enter a game off of 3 or more consecutive unders while the Raptors are 5-7 SU (and 2-10 ATS!) in the same situation. The Heat keep grinding tonight and the value is with the points until the Raptors can prove otherwise in this series. *8* MIAMI |
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05-10-16 | Thunder +7 v. Spurs | Top | 95-91 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Oklahoma City Thunder +7 @ San Antonio @ 8:00 ET - The Spurs are 43-2 SU at home and most of you have probably heard or are not surprised to hear that record as San Antonio's home dominance was well-documented this season. However, many of you might be surprised to know that the Spurs are only 6-10 ATS in their last 16 home games. Two of those ATS covers came at the expense of the Grizzlies in the first round. Memphis had a roster that was so depleted they honestly might have lost a series against the NCAA Champion Villanova Wildcats, let alone having to play the Spurs. By the way, the Spurs last 5 games against good teams (Golden State, Oklahoma City, and Toronto) saw San Antonio go just 1-4 ATS with 2 of the 4 losses being outright losses. I am not necessarily saying the Thunder win this game outright but it truly would not be a complete surprise. The original Big 3 of the Spurs: Parker, Ginobili, and especially Duncan are all showing their age. That said, are Leonard and Aldridge enough to get past Westbrook and Durant of the Thunder. I think this is going to be an epic battle the rest of the way and, in a game five that should be very tight, grabbing the big points is the way to go. Keep in mind, ever since that crazy first game where OKC got a wake-up call, the last 3 games have featured 2 Thunder wins and 1 Thunder loss by just four points. That game was decided on a late offensive rebound of a missed free throw for San Antonio. Had OKC grabbed that board, the Thunder would have had the ball with a chance to win or tie the game at the end of regulation. The whole point is that not a lot of margin separates these teams but the whole world is likely to be lining up on San Antonio in this one. True to form, I like to be a contrarian and it has served me well through the years. I'll grab the generous points as the Thunder know that, to advance, they still have to win a game in San Antonio. In other words, no let up here, no loss of emotional edge. The Thunder come out just as focused as the Spurs in this one. *10* OKLAHOMA CITY |
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05-09-16 | Raptors v. Heat -5.5 | Top | 87-94 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Miami Heat -5.5 vs Toronto @ 8 ET - All the games in this series have been tight but this looks like the game where all that changes. The injury issue with Jonas Valanciunas of the Raptors is a big deal. Yes, I am well aware of the Hassan Whiteside injury for the Heat and the fact that Chris Bosh has been a long-term absence for Miami. However, Valanciunas is truly a key, integral part of the Toronto interior and his production is going to be difficult to replace if he's unable to play for any significant amount of time (and he's out for this series). Couple that with the fact that the Heat are looking to bounce back off of a rare home loss and you have the makings of a home rout in this Game 4 match-up that is absolutely key for Miami to win to get back into this series. Keep in mind that the Raptors were up by 13 points very early in the 3rd quarter when Valanciunas got hurt. That means the Heat essentially won the 2nd half (nearly all of that half) of the game by 9 points as they went on to lose the game by 4 points. The significance in that is that, at home and seeking revenge and facing the Raptors without Valanciunas (out for the series) perhaps the Heat win this one by 9 points in each half and get an 18 point win! Honestly that result would not surprise as, even though Whiteside is an important piece to the Heat, Valanciunas is even more important to the Raptors. Toronto's win at Miami Saturday resulted in their 1st ATS cover in their last 7 games. The Heat had covered 10 of their last 15 games before the game three defeat. The Raptors are 5-15 ATS in all playoff games the last three seasons and 0-3 ATS when leading in a playoff series. Toronto is also 14-23 ATS when off of an upset win as an underdog. The Heat went 11-6 ATS this season when off of an upset loss as a favorite and are also 11-5 ATS this season when playing with home loss revenge. *10* MIAMI |
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05-08-16 | Spurs v. Thunder +1.5 | Top | 97-111 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Oklahoma City Thunder +1.5 vs San Antonio @ 8:00 ET - The Spurs snuck out the Game 3 win but I don't see the Thunder losing two straight on their home floor. Westbrook had an awful shooting night Friday and I don't foresee that being repeated here. Straight up trends can be discussed here because this line is right around the pick'em range and the Thunder have gone 11-2 this season when playing with home loss revenge. Also, when trailing in a playoff series the Thunder have gone 6-2 the past three seasons. One of the few roles that the Spurs have struggled in is that of the road favorite. They were somewhat fortunate to get the cover in Game 3 as Leonard got a huge offensive rebound for them off of a free throw miss. Otherwise the game likely would have ended with the Spurs losing on a last second three pointer or winning by no more than 2 points and many (including myself) had the +2.5 in that game with OKC. In this game 4 match-up the line is SA by 1.5 or 1 as of early gameday morning. Note that San Antonio was 7-13 SU and ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or less before notching that Game 3 win as a small road fave. So they bucked a 65% play against situation in Game 3 but the Spurs are unlikely to win again in a similar situation considering the Thunder have more than just home revenge on their minds. OKC knows that if they lose tonight the series is essentially over because winning 3 straight (including 2 more times in SA) is highly unlikely. That means tonight is the true definition of a must win. Now I don't just blindly play "must win" situations and certainly have played against them often in the past but, in this case, knowing the Thunder lost the turnover battle and rebounding battle in Game 3 plus shot poorly and yet still only lost the game by 4 points...I am backing the home team tonight. Westbrook has made just 26 of 75 shots in this series. That's not going to continue at home in Game 4. He had a huge statement game at home in Game 5 against Dallas and that finished the Mavericks off. That was a big game and he'll step up again here and help lead the way to another critical home win as the Thunder get back into this series by evening it up tonight. *10* OKLAHOMA CITY |
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05-08-16 | Cavs v. Hawks UNDER 203.5 | 100-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* UNDER 203.5 in Atlanta vs Cleveland @ 3:35 ET - With the Hawks trying to avoid the sweep and with the last two games flying over the total, this is the perfect spot to back the under. Atlanta knows they aren't going to win a game by getting into a shootout with the Cavaliers. That has already been proven time and time again in this series. The key for the Hawks is to use their strength, defense, to try and stay in this critical Game 4 with the Cavs and then steal the win late. The under is 7-3 this season in Cleveland's road games where the posted total is between 200 and 204.5 points. I am not particularly big on "day of the week" trends but one day I do tend to look at is Sunday trends because it has a lot to do with how teams handle Saturday nights! That said, it's worth noting that the Cavaliers are 23-13 to the under the last 3 seasons in Sunday games and this trend is an amazing long-term 129-68 to the under as well. The under is 6-3 in Hawks Sunday games this season and also 6-3 in all their playoff games this season. The under has gone 20-12 in Atlanta playoff games the last 3 seasons and 67-41 in Hawks playoff games long-term. On a losing streak of 3 games or more the Hawks have gone 15-8 to the under the past three seasons and, as noted above, they must turn to their defense here to avoid the sweep. The under is also 29-16 the last 3 seasons when Atlanta is playing with home loss revenge. The Hawks got completely dominated on the glass in game 3 and I look for a much better effort there as they limit the Cavs "easy, quick points" as much as possible in this crucial game 4 match-up. *8* UNDER in Atlanta |
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05-07-16 | Raptors v. Heat OVER 187 | Top | 95-91 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play OVER 187 in Miami vs Toronto @ 5:05 ET - Each of the first two games in this series went to overtime and were decided by 6 points or less. That said, I am not touching the side in this match-up as a Heat win by about a half dozen points would not surprise me in the least. In other words, I feel odds makers likely have the side pegged in this one. However, where I do feel that exceptional line value is being offered here is with this total. Yes, I am well aware of the fact that the first two games going to overtime helped them get to higher totals than the games should have. However, I am also well aware of the fact that Miami is fired up, has been a different team at home in these playoffs, and that Toronto's backcourt is due for a breakout game after struggling with their shooting so far in this series. Add it all up and there is great value with the over in this match-up. The Heat have averaged 108 points per game in their four home games so far in the post-season. This is no fluke either as Miami averaged an incredible 112 points per game in going 12-2 in their 14 regular season home games after the All Star break. The Game 5 loss the Heat had against the Hornets in round one where Miami was held to 88 points is the only time in the last 19 Heat home games that they were held under 101 points! That said, the law of averages (and the fact that the Heat are fired up off of a road loss) says that Miami should get to anywhere from 101 to 112 points in this one. Considering how tight this series has been and that the odds makers are unlikely to miss the spread by much in this one, that means we should have a game that totals anywhere from 196 points to 218 points. Again, I know the other games have been lower scoring and that the Raptors have not shot well. But the Heat are going to play a much cleaner game (much fewer turnovers) and are quite simply a different "animal" when on their home floor. By the way, the over is 14-5 the last three seasons in Miami home games with a posted total between 185 and 189.5 points. The over in Heat 2nd round playoff games is on a 5-2 run. The Raptors are 4-2 to the over when tied in a playoff series. *10* OVER in Miami |
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05-06-16 | Spurs v. Thunder +2.5 | Top | 100-96 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Oklahoma City Thunder +2.5 vs San Antonio @ 9:35 ET - In typical "zig zag" fashion, this line opened up with Oklahoma City favored by a point and a half and the Thunder are now as high as a two and a half point dog in this one. Of course everyone saw the Spurs fall just short at home on Monday and so the whole world couldn't believe the odds makers had the "gall" to favor the Thunder in Game 3. As a result, tons of support flooded in on the Spurs as there is no way the Spurs could lose back to back games, right? In my humble opinion, you better believe they could. San Antonio had a great regular season particularly at home and they play great "system" basketball. However, the Spurs Big 3 of Ginobili, Parker, and Duncan certainly isn't what it once was. As a result, guys like Kahwi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge fill the most important roles now. However, is this really going to be enough to carry the Spurs through this series when guys like Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are so determined for the Thunder. Oklahoma City is a confident group on their home floor and has had great success in recent home meetings against the Spurs. In fact, OKC is 6-2 SU and ATS in their last 8 meetings with the Spurs in Oklahoma City. As a road favorite of 3 points or less the past three seasons the Spurs are 7-13 SU and ATS! In road games this season with a posted total between 200 and 204.5 San Antonio has gone 3-8 ATS this season. The Thunder are 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS as a home dog of 3 points or less the past three seasons. They are playing with the mentality of an "underdog edginess" against the Spurs while San Antonio has been calling for Golden State ever since they swept an injury-ravaged Memphis team and then dominated the Thunder in the first game of this series. What Game Two did, with the tight Thunder win, was totally change the emotions and motivation of this series and I'll gladly fade the line move in this one because, ladies and gentlemen, we have a series on our hands here. This is going to be an all out war and the Spurs lost their moxie with the Game Two loss. *10* OKLAHOMA CITY |
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05-06-16 | Cavs v. Hawks OVER 198.5 | 121-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA *8* OVER 198.5 in Atlanta vs Cleveland @ 7:05 ET - After the "craziness" of Game 2 in Cleveland, many will be inclined to back the under in the Game 3 match-up and, in fact, there has been a drop from an opener of 200 down to a 198.5 as of gameday morning. I will fade the line move here and take advantage of the lower number. What bettors have to understand here is that the Cavaliers are the hottest three point shooting team in the league in this post-season and both the Cavs and Hawks are known for jacking up a lot of threes. That, of course, can have a huge impact on the total in an NBA game. Cleveland is the only team that still has not lost a playoff game this postseason. The Hawks will be fired up to respond on their home floor after losing each of the first two games at Cleveland. However, Atlanta's response tonight is not necessarily going to be one that greatly increases defensive efficiency. When a team is shooting like the Cavs are the problem is that if you commit to defending the 3 you invariably weaken your interior defense and that means more drives to the basket for easy buckets. The Cavs simply have so many weapons and so many ways to beat you. That is they they're the best team in the east. I don't like the side here as I do expect the game to be a close one but I do feel strongly that the Hawks will have to score plenty to keep up with the red hot Cavs and that will push this one over the total as Atlanta gets a boost from the home crowd. The Hawks averaged 103.4 points per game at home this season. The Cavs have averaged 107.3 points per game in their last 16 games and have NOT been held under 100 points in ANY of those 16 games. Line value here with this total and the Cavaliers are 23-12 to the over this season when they are off of a win by 10 points or more. The Hawks are 4-2 to the over when trailing in a playoff series. *8* OVER in Atlanta |
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05-05-16 | Heat v. Raptors OVER 187.5 | Top | 92-96 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play OVER 187.5 in Toronto vs Miami @ 8:05 ET - Winning in the NBA has a lot to do with value. The key here is that everyone is jumping on the under in this game because everyone who watched Game One knows that, of course, it should NOT have gone over the total. It only went over the total because of the ridiculous luck of a half-court shot that went in at the regulation buzzer. Herein lies the key. Whether or not Game One should have gone over the total or not is truly irrelevant. Each game is a standalone game and we must look at the situation for the game as well as the line value. In this case, the total for Game Two is down to a 187.5 and this is after the Game One posted total was as high as a 192.5 in some books. Also, the last regular season meeting these teams had a posted total in the 203 range. The point is that there is a lot of value with this total now dipping as low as it has. This is especially true when you consider that the home team is off of a loss and desperate for a win tonight to even up the series before heading south to Miami. Note that Toronto, the past three seasons combined, is 4-2 to the over when trailing in a playoff series and 6-2 to the over in home games with a posted total in a range of 185 to 189.5 points. As for the Heat, the past three seasons combined, the over is 5-1 in second round playoff games and also Miami is 8-4 to the over when they are leading in a playoff series. The Raptors push the pace in this one and Kyle Lowry (7 points in Game One) is going to respond after having one of his worst games in a long time. Clearly he's hurting some but to score only 7 points? He responds tonight and so do the Raptors and that pushes this one over this low total. *10* OVER in Toronto |
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05-04-16 | Hawks v. Cavs OVER 197.5 | Top | 98-123 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play OVER 197 in Cleveland vs Atlanta @ 8:05 ET - Game 1 stayed under the total despite the fact that the Hawks attempted 87 shots from the field. One of the issues was LeBron James not getting to the free throw line for the Cavaliers and I look for free throw attempts to be up in Game 2. There will be a deliberate effort to go to the rack and draw contact throughout this game. Though the Hawks have stayed under in 8 of their last 9 games, note that only 1 of those 9 games has totaled less than 193 points. In other words, the totals have certainly been "right there" for an over but have fallen just short. As for the Cavaliers, their recent unders also have fallen "just short" of going over and the downward move on this total is offering us great line value with the over in Game Two. The Cavaliers are 22-12 to the over this season when they are off of a win by a margin of 10 points or more in their prior game. The Hawks made a huge run late in Game 1 to make a game out of it in the fourth quarter but then the Cavs pulled away late. Look for Atlanta to build off of their comeback effort in game one with an even stronger effort tonight. The Hawks have averaged 102 points per game on the road this season while the Cavaliers have averaged nearly 107 points per game at home this season. Granted this is "playoff basketball" but knowing that the Cavaliers should get a few more "calls" here from the refs plus knowing that the Hawks are going to push even harder in Game Two after seeing their comeback attempt slip away in the latter stages of Game One will prove to be the difference makers in pushing this one over the total. The over is on a 28-13-1 run in match-ups between these teams in Cleveland and the Cavaliers will be pushing the pace even more tonight as there is no long layoff between games like there was before Game 1 for the Cavs. *10* OVER in Cleveland |
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05-03-16 | Heat +4.5 v. Raptors | Top | 102-96 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA *10* Top Play Miami Heat +4.5 @ Toronto @ 8:05 ET - On the one hand, the Raptors could be a little more relaxed now that they finally got out of the first round. On the other hand, this could be a big letdown spot for Toronto as they had so much emotion for their huge Game 7 with Indiana where the Raptors finally got over the frustration of recent playoff failures. I foresee the latter. While Toronto exhales a sigh of relief of finally getting a big Game 7 home win, the Heat will come into this game with their typical workmanlike mentality. Comparing the teams, Miami has been playing the much better defense and the Heat used this defense to create some blowout wins as their average margin of victory against Charlotte was 20 points! As for the Raptors, they barely snuck by Indiana. The 3 losses for Toronto came by an average margin of 15 points per game and 3 of the 4 wins came by only a single digit margin and that included the last two victories coming by 5 points or less. The Raptors concerns include the poor shooting of Kyle Lowry as his elbow injury is more of an issue then was previously expected. Also, Toronto is 0-3 in their last 3 Game One home games. Though the Raptors have won 5 of the last 6 regular season meetings with Miami, playoff basketball is a different "animal" and the Heat held Charlotte to 43% or less from the field in all 7 games. The Raptors allowed the Pacers to hit 45% or better from the field in each of the final four games in the series. That has a lot to do with Toronto's 0-4 ATS run and I expect a 5th straight loss for the Raptors at the betting window tonight. *10* MIAMI |
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