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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-29-16 | Celtics v. Cavs UNDER 216 | Top | 118-124 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
TNT Total Annihilation - Rickenbach 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Cleveland Cavaliers vs Boston Celtics @ 8:05 ET Thursday - Cleveland has not shot well at all in their last two games as they were held under 40% from the field in each game. The focus in tonight's game for the Cavaliers, coming off of a loss at Detroit, is to take high percentage shots and improve on the defensive end which certainly will also be the focus of the Celtics as they have allowed 111.3 points per game in their last 3 games. The fact that the most recent meeting between these teams (in early November) totaled 250 points is helping to give us line value here. The posted total on this re-match Thursday is very high and, keep in mind, 8 of 11 prior meetings between these clubs had stayed under the total. Also, the Celtics are on a 5-1 to the under this season in road games with a posted total of 210 points or more. Even though the Cavs are allowing an average of 103 points per game this season, it is certainly noteworthy that the Celtics are 14-6 to the under this season in their games against teams who allow an average of 99 points or more per game. Cleveland is on a long-term run of 36-19 to the under in their games against Atlantic Division teams. The Cavaliers will be "geared up" on defense off of the loss and I see the under improving to 3-1 this season in games where the Cavs are off of a loss by 10 points or more. 10* UNDER in Cleveland |
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12-29-16 | Evansville +7.5 v. Illinois State | 50-62 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #535 Thursday - 8* Evansville Purple Aces (+) @ Illinois State Redbirds @ 8 ET Thursday - The Purple Aces certainly lost a lot of key cogs from last year's roster. However, Evansville is still a quality team with a quality coach and they had some key replacements coming in including a transfer player that had sat out last season and now has been one of the Aces top contributors so far this season. What has impressed me about Evansville is that they've come out this season like a team with something to prove (due to all the roster turnover) and after an early adjustment phase they've certainly turned things up a notch. The Purple Aces are entering their conference opener on a 7-game winning streak. Also, two of the four losses that Evansville had earlier this season came by 4 points or less. Here we are getting a sizable amount of points considering that the Redbirds, though considered a top MVC team for this season, are only 6-4 so far on the young season. Illinois State did not shoot the ball well in the Hawaii tourney they just returned from and if they're shots aren't falling early in this game they could be in trouble here. The Purple Aces, thanks to a 7 game winning streak, are a very confident team and they've drained at least 46% of their shots from the field in 10 of their last 12 games! Also, the Aces were only held under 68 points twice in their last dozen games. Confident, scoring a lot of points, and out for revenge (Evansville lost at home to Illinois State last season plus the Redbirds knocked them out of the MVC tourney 2 years ago), the Purple Aces make for an ideal "dangerous" underdog! I am grabbing all the points I can get here! 8* EVANSVILLE |
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12-29-16 | Tennessee +9.5 v. Texas A&M | 73-63 | Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #539 Thursday - 8* Tennessee Volunteers (+) @ Texas A & M @ 7 ET Thursday - Head coach Rick Barnes is in his 2nd season at Tennessee. Though the Volunteers are certainly still rebuilding, they did notch a few victories over SEC rivals like Florida, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt last season. Though not a traditional SEC rival like those, Texas A & M is a team that absolutely has the full attention of coach Barnes. Keep in mind, he was at Texas for 15+ season before coming to Tennessee so he knows the Aggies very well as the Longhorns and Texas A & M are the biggest rivals in the state of Texas due to their many years together in the same conference. That said, even though a few things have changed, you can bet that this game, especially with it being the SEC opener, means an awful lot to coach Barnes and he's had a full week to prepare for this match-up. The Aggies have a slightly better record than the Vols so far this season but Tennessee has played the tougher schedule. Also, the Volunteers are 4-1 ATS as an underdog this season and 4-1 ATS in games against teams with a winning record. The Vols are also a perfect 3-0 ATS in road games this season. The Aggies are only 1-3 ATS this season in their games against teams with a winning record and they are 0-2 ATS this season when off of a game where they allowed 60 points or less. The Vols battled hard at home last season against Texas A & M but fell just short in the 4-point loss. Barnes almost got the W against his long-time rival in that match-up. Even if he does fall short again, look for the Volunteers to at least get the cover here. 8* TENNESSEE |
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12-28-16 | Suns +15 v. Spurs | 98-119 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA 8* Phoenix Suns (+) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 8:35 ET - When you win the way the Spurs did on Christmas Day (down late in 3rd but then rally in 4th quarter to win big) it can mask other issues. The fact is that San Antonio shot the ball "lights out" in that game as they started out insanely hot from the field and then finished ultra hot from the field as well. The problem is that San Antonio did allow the Bulls to not only get back in that game but also take that lead rather late through the third quarter. Of course all is forgotten when you go on to win the game by 19 points but San Antonio has been quite "leaky" on defense and they just haven't had to "pay for it" yet because they've been so hot on offense. Though I don't expect the Suns to win this game outright I certainly feel the points are far too much. Yes, Phoenix is off of a loss at Houston but they have outrebounded 4 straight opponents and hustle play like that could play a key role in making the Suns a dangerous dog tonight. The Spurs aren't going to keep knocking down shots at the ridiculous clip they did against the Bulls and with being happy with a Christmas Day win and with having a tougher foe (Portland) on deck, this is a bit of a "sandwich spot" for San Antonio where I don't expect them to go all out nor to be fully focused. The Spurs have allowed their last 3 opponents to combine for over 45% from the field but they haven't felt the pain of that because their own offense has been ridiculously hot. Plain and simple, Phoenix is hungrier here and these points are way too big. The Suns are 8-4 ATS this season (and 38-23 ATS the past three seasons) when off of a loss by 10 points or more. 8* PHOENIX |
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12-28-16 | Iowa +13.5 v. Purdue | Top | 67-89 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - CBB Game #755 Wednesday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Iowa Hawkeyes (+) vs Purdue Boilermakers @ 8:30 ET - Many of you will recall that I used Iowa against Iowa State about 3 weeks ago in a game where nobody wanted the Hawkeyes as certainly it was the Cyclones that "made sense" in that match-up. The same key aspect in that game applies in this one as well. Even though Iowa is likely to have a "down year" and not be the team they've been in recent seasons, this is still an in-state rivalry game and there is no doubt that the Hawkeyes are going to bring their "A game" in this one. Iowa certainly has been playing solid defense of late and that has helped lead the way to a 5-game winning streak and 4-0-1 ATS run. The Hawkeyes have held 4 of their last 5 opponents (including Iowa State!) under 36% from the field. While I do expect Purdue to get revenge here (they lost both match-ups last season), I do not expect the Boilermakers to win by a sizable margin. With this line having jumped from 11.5 to 13.5 this morning, it has made this situation even stronger in favor of the big road dog. Purdue's only challenging games this season (where they weren't a double digit fave or it was not a non-lined game) have seen the Boilermakers go just 1-2 with a 5-point win over Notre Dame and losses to Louisville and Villanova. Now, of course, I am not saying that the Hawkeyes are on par with those teams but the point is that this is a quality Big Ten basketball program that is going to bring a huge effort and that will very likely lead to this one playing out to a similar margin (5 points) seen in the Fighting Irish game. By the way, the Boilermakers did allow at least 48% from the field in all 3 of those games. The Hawkeyes have really stepped up their defensive efforts recently (spurred on by the win over Cyclones) and I look for that trend to continue here. Purdue has a long-term 4-8 ATS mark in games with a posted total in the 150 to 159.5 range. The Hawkeyes enter on a 4-0-1 ATS run and stay hot at the cashiers window tonight! 10* IOWA |
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12-28-16 | Nets +9 v. Bulls | Top | 99-101 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA 10* Top Play Brooklyn Nets (+) @ Chicago Bulls @ 8:05 ET Wednesday - Both teams are off of wins but look for the Nets to be the more motivated team here. After all, the Bulls beat a division rival (Indiana) and will be facing the Pacers again on Friday. That said, it is difficult for Chicago to get excited about this game. As for Brooklyn, you better believe they'll be ready. They were thoroughly embarrassed by 30 points AT HOME on Halloween night. When a team takes a beating like that in front of their home fans they don't forget about it. That was a "special" home loss to say the least but the Nets numbers are good even in "non-special" situations. Brooklyn is 6-2 ATS this season when playing with home loss revenge! As for the Bulls, they finally stepped up on defense (against Indiana) Monday and got the win. However, Chicago is 1-2 ATS (and 0-3 SU!) this season when off of a game where they held their opponent to 85 points or less. The Bulls are also known for "playing down" to the level of their competition and have gone 41-58 ATS their last 99 games against teams with a losing record. The Nets want this game. The Bulls are already looking ahead to another match-up with Indiana. Grab the generous points with the hungry big dog here. 10* BROOKLYN |
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12-28-16 | Nebraska v. Indiana -15.5 | 87-83 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
Big Ten Network Smash - CBB Game #738 - Rickenbach 8* Indiana Hoosiers (-) vs Nebraska Cornhuskers @ 6:30 ET Wednesday - While the points look big here, keep in mind this is Indiana's Big Ten opener and they have a conference game on deck. In other words, there will be no let-up from the Hoosiers in this one and, that said, they have the talent level and depth to absolutely bury Nebraska. Indiana has 10 wins this season and 8 of those came by a margin of 22 points or more. The only two victories that the Hoosiers have had by smaller margins came against North Carolina and Kansas. Of course those are two of the top programs in the nation so smaller victory margins in those games was understandable. That said, the Cornhuskers should be another team to join Indiana's "22 point club" as the Hoosiers get another win by at least that margin here. Indiana averages 89 points per game this season and the Huskers average 69 points and just don't have the offensive firepower to keep up here with all the weapons that the Hoosiers have. Most concerning for Nebraska here is that their defense has regressed. Even though their last 4 games have included easy opponents like Southern U and Gardner Webb, the Huskers have allowed more than 50% from the field against their last four opponents combined. With depth and with this being a conference opener, the Hoosiers should win this one going away and will never really take their foot off of the gas here. By the way, Indiana's D (38% from the field) has also been fantastic this season. The Cornhuskers are on an 18-35 ATS run against teams with a winning record and 0-3 ATS when playing with 7 or more days of rest between games. The Hoosiers are 5-2 ATS at home this season and on a 13-7 ATS run in December games. They have also won and covered each of the last 3 meetings between the teams. 8* INDIANA |
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12-27-16 | Thunder v. Heat OVER 205.5 | Top | 106-94 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
NBA TV Top Total - Rickenbach NBA 10* Top Play OVER the total in Miami Heat vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 7:35 ET Tuesday - Victor Oladipo is likely to still be out for this contest at Miami Tuesday night but the Oklahoma City guard has been out for each of the last 4 Thunder games and all 4 went over the total. OKC is averaging 114.4 points per game in their last 5 games. Their defense has allowed 108 points per game in their last 7 games. Though, in general, Miami has a tendency to play lower-scoring games, the Heat have recently been involved in some hot-shooting games as well. Before their low-scoring loss at New Orleans, Miami had shot 51% or better in 3 of their last 6 games. Also, the Heat defense has not been what it once was. They still hold that reputation and every once in awhile will come up with a big game but Miami, before that low-scoring loss to the Pelicans, had allowed more than 100 points in 15 of their last 19 games. That said, the way Russell Westbrook has been playing, I don't see the Heat slowing down the Thunder here. Of course the big key to the play on the over here is that fact that OKC does give up points in bunches and I am expecting more of the same on Tuesday! The Thunder haven't had to play a back to back in two weeks so they have fresh legs here. The Heat have had 3 days off leading into this one so they'll also be ready to push the pace after scoring just 87 at New Orleans Friday. 10* OVER the total in Miami Tuesday |
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12-27-16 | Rutgers v. Wisconsin OVER 125 | 52-72 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
Big Ten ESPN2 Smash - Rickenbach CBB 8* OVER the total in Wisconsin Badgers vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ 7 ET Tuesday - The Badgers allowed only 37 points in their game against Florida A & M Friday and that is helping to give us some line value here as the markets have reacted by dropping this total from an opener of 128 all the way down to a 125 as of early gameday morning. The fact is that the Badgers do play strong defense but also their offensive is under-rated. This Wisconsin team is averaging 78 points per game and they've scored at least 67 points in all but one of their games this season. Though Rutgers has faced a weaker non-conference schedule than the Badgers have, the Scarlet Knights have built up confidence with their 11-2 start this season and they are averaging 73.4 points per game this season. As a road dog of 12.5 or more points the Scarlet Knights have gone 12-2 to the over the past three seasons. Including in that number is a perfect 3-0 tightener when they are a road dog in a range of 18.5 to 24 points. Also, in Big Ten action for Rutgers the past two seasons, the over went 25-12. In games with a posted total in the 120s the past two seasons, the Scarlet Knights went 5-1 to the over. Each of the last two meetings between these teams went over the total and Rutgers has scored at least 66 points in 11 of their 13 games this season. A lot of value with this low total here as Rutgers has scored at least 61 points in all their games this season and, even against the Badgers the last two seasons they were never held to less than 57. That means if Wiscy does hold the Scarlet Knights to 57 but wins this one by 20 as they are projected to, then that gets this game total to the mid-130s. 8* OVER in Wisconsin Tuesday |
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12-26-16 | Suns +13 v. Rockets | 115-131 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA 8* Phoenix Suns (+) @ Houston Rockets @ 8:05 ET Monday - These teams just met last week in Phoenix and the Rockets won by 14 points. That is why it may seem a little surprising that the Rockets aren't favored by even more here in Houston as they now host the Suns. However, don't fall for the "trap" here. Houston is in a bad situational spot here. They have a big game with Dallas on deck tomorrow. Certainly it has been a tough season for the Mavericks but the Rockets and Mavs are divisional in-state rivals and so their games are always "big" for Houston. The Rockets come into this game having failed to cover 3 of their last 4 games and the field goal percentage they've allowed has gotten gradually worse in each of their last 4 games. In other words, lax Rockets defense is starting to cost them and it is showing no signs of improving. That said, I like the hungry "nothing to lose" underdog Suns here as Phoenix has shot progressively better from the floor in each of their last 4 games. Coming off of a win (albeit against Philadelphia) is a confidence booster for the Suns and the road team has gotten the cash in each of the last 4 meetings between these teams. In fact, Phoenix has recorded an outright win in 2 of its last 3 visits to Houston and the Rockets have won 3 straight at Phoenix. Houston is 1-3 SU (and 0-4 ATS!) this season when coming into a game with 2 days of rest. Look for the Rockets to again struggle to find their rhythm after a layoff and the result here will be a game in which the Suns should stay within single digits throughout. 8* PHOENIX SUNS Monday |
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12-26-16 | Mavs v. Pelicans OVER 196.5 | Top | 104-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA 10* Top Play OVER the total in New Orleans Pelicans vs Dallas Mavericks @ 8:05 ET Monday - This total has moved downward this morning and that has opened up even more line value on the over in this match-up. I am well aware of the fact that Dallas has mostly been an "under team" this season but the Mavericks have allowed 50% shooting from the field in their last 8 road games combined so it's not like they're playing stellar defense away from home. Additionally, they're now visiting New Orleans and the Pelicans are 12-2 to the over in home games where the total is between 195 and 199.5 points this season! Overall at home, New Orleans is on a incredible run of 66-35 to the over the past 3 seasons combined. The Pelicans final game before the Christmas break did stay under the total but they shot a ridiculous 37% from the field in that win. Look for them to bounce back here. The last 5 times that New Orleans is at home and off of game where they were held under 40% from the field, they have averaged 104.6 points per game in their next game. In other words, a big response on offense can be expected from the Pelicans here and, considering that they had lost 11 of 15 before that win over Miami Friday, you can fully expect the Mavericks to hang right with New Orleans in this game. That is precisely why it should fly over the total as well. Look for these teams to make it 4 overs in the last 5 meetings in New Orleans in this match-up Monday evening. Overall, the Pelicans are averaging 105 points per game in their last 9 games but they're also giving up an average of 110.7 points per game in their last 9 games! 10* OVER the total in New Orleans Monday |
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12-26-16 | Hornets v. Nets +7 | 118-120 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA 8* Brooklyn Nets (+) vs Charlotte Hornets @ 7:35 ET Monday - Ugly home dog which is very attractive here in the first day after what was a Christmas break for most teams. Charlotte hasn't played since Friday and so I don't expect them to just hit the court "firing on all cylinders" on Monday after the lay-off. The Hornets are 0-5 ATS this season in games with a posted total of 210 points or more. Also, Charlotte has gone 1-6 ATS this season in their games against Atlantic Division opponents. Brooklyn is playing this game with home loss revenge as they lost here against the Hornets on November 4th and the Nets have gone 5-2 ATS this season when playing with home loss revenge. Brooklyn has covered 6 of the last 8 meetings between these teams and did get the cash in that early November meeting which also saw them installed as a sizable home dog. Charlotte is off of a big win over Chicago Friday and now has back to back divisional games on deck after this one. That makes this a true "sandwich spot" for the Hornets where they are off of a big game and have big games on deck and, therefore, could easily overlook a 7-22 Nets team. That is what I am counting on! 8* BROOKLYN |
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12-25-16 | San Francisco +5 v. San Diego State | Top | 48-62 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
Tourney Top Play - Rickenbach CBB 10* Top Play San Francisco Dons (+) vs San Diego State Aztecs in Diamond Head Classic @ Stan Sheriff Center in Honolulu, HI @ 8 ET Sunday - The Dons have certainly exceed expectations early this season and the way they've won their two games in this Diamond Head Classic certainly says a lot about this team. They beat Utah with a strong offensive performance (shot 52.5% and won 89-86) and then beat Illinois State with a huge effort on defense (held Redbirds to 30.3% and won 66-58). San Francisco is now 10-2 on the season and their two losses have come by 6 points or less. That said, getting 5 points with the Dons in the Diamond Head Classic Championship Game is the way to go here. San Francisco has played a similar strength of schedule to that of San Diego State and they are only 7-4 on the season. The Aztecs faced weaker competition in this tourney however as they were a 20 point favorite in one game and also were favored in the other. The Dons were a sizable dog in both of their games in this tournament. The Aztecs were on a 1-5 ATS run before their win Friday and the losses of Winston Shepard and Skylar Spencer have been tougher to overcome than most expected. The Aztecs are on a 2-11 ATS run in December games the past three seasons and the Dons are on a 6-1 ATS run in neutral court games the past three seasons. Give me the points with the highly motivated underdog (lost 2 prior meetings with Aztecs) that is surging with confidence right now. 10* SAN FRANCISCOÂ |
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12-25-16 | Wolves v. Thunder OVER 210.5 | Top | 100-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
Christmas Day Top Total - Rickenbach 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oklahoma City Thunder vs Minnesota Timberwolves @ 8:05 ET - Oklahoma City's games have totaled 215 points or more in 4 straight games and have gone over the total in 3 consecutive games. They have shot over 50.5% from the field in 3 of their last 4 games. As for Minnesota, 3 of their last 4 games have totaled at least 214 points. The Timberwolves have allowed 105 points or more in 12 of their last 14 games. The Thunder defense has sagged off lately and I highly doubt they will pick up in intensity on, of all days, Christmas Day. OKC has allowed an average of 106.2 points per game their last 9 games and I look for a wild one today as both teams continue to allow way too many open looks from the outside and easy drives through the paint on the inside. The T-wolves were favored in their loss versus Sacramento Friday and the over is 15-7 the past three seasons when Minnesota is off of an upset loss as a favorite. The Thunder have averaged 109.6 points per game in their last 5 games versus the Timberwolves so this one sets up well with plenty of run and gun expected. 10* OVER in Oklahoma City |
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12-25-16 | Bulls +9 v. Spurs | Top | 100-119 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
Christmas Day Top Side - Rickenbach NBA 10* Top Play Chicago Bulls (+) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 5:05 ET - The Spurs have revenge here as they lost at Chicago earlier this month. However, this is a tough spot for San Antonio as they just got back from a West Coast road trip and will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days. Additionally, by virtue of being at home on Christmas Day they have a few more distractions with all the Christmas festivities taking place at this time of year and having had the ability to be home with their families by virtue of being a host on Christmas Day. The last three games between these teams have been decided by an average of 5 points per game with no game decided by more than 8 points. This spread is inflated because the Bulls have struggled recently but I expect them to step up here off of the disappointing loss at Charlotte Friday. Last year on Christmas Day 4 of the 5 dogs got the cash and the lone fave that covered barely got the cash. It is difficult for teams to blow each other out in the difficult setting that is a Christmas Day game. That said, the value is with the underdog again in this one. This will be the Spurs 4th straight Christmas Day game and they've lost each of the prior three while the Bulls have won on Christmas Day each of the last three years. 10* CHICAGO BULLS |
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12-23-16 | Wizards v. Bucks -3 | Top | 96-123 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
NBA Game #712 Friday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (-) vs Washington Wizards @ 8:05 ET - This is a perfect set-up. The Bucks have revenge here for a December 10th loss at Washington. The Wizards ended that game on a ridiculous 11-0 run and Milwaukee certainly hasn't forgotten about it. The Bucks are entering this game on a 2-game losing streak but the losses came against Cleveland and Milwaukee played the Cavaliers very tough in both of those games. This is the front end of a home and home between these teams so the Bucks are now fully focused on the Wizards and they catch them off of a big road win at Chicago. That sets this one up nicely and the home team has won each of the past four meetings between these clubs by 5 points or more. Even though Washington has fared surprisingly well this season (3-0 ATS) when off of an upset win as an underdog that is traditionally the type of victory that leaves a team flat in the next game. The Wizards entered this season having gone 9-17 ATS the past two seasons when off of an upset win as an underdog. The Bucks will be the hungrier and more motivated team as they seek revenge tonight. Milwaukee is 11-4 SU and ATS in home games with a posted total of 210 points or more and the odds makers are calling for another high-scoring one here as you can see. I'll gladly lay the small number with the Bucks who have also gone 3-1 SU and ATS this season as home fave of 3 points or less. 10* Top Play MILWAUKEE |
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12-23-16 | Warriors -7 v. Pistons | 119-113 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
NBA Game #705 Friday - Rickenbach 8* Golden State Warriors (-) @ Detroit Pistons @ 7:35 ET - Even though this is a back to back spot for the Warriors I don't expect any let-up here. Golden State's win at Brooklyn last night made it 6 straight wins for the Warriors. Even though they have a date with Cleveland (NBA Finals rematch) on deck, the Pistons also have the Cavaliers on deck and that is a big division rival for Detroit. The problem for the Pistons here is that they beat Golden State in their last visit to the Motor City. That 18 point win in January for Detroit certainly has not been forgotten by the Warriors and it is payback time on Friday. The most concerning thing for the Pistons is not the fact that they have lost 4 straight games but the fact that they've lost those games by an average of 18.5 points per game and all 4 were decided by a double digit margin! 5 of the last 6 wins for the Warriors were decided by 8 points or more and their average margin of victory has been 19.3 points per game. You can see why I am expecting a blowout here and, again, the Warriors having the Cavs on deck is certainly a factor BUT Golden State has revenge on the Pistons and that will prove to be the most important factor tonight. The Warriors are 16-1 this season after a win by double digits and 13-1 in their games against teams with a losing record. Those are SU marks but you can see, from the numbers above, why I am expecting the Warriors to take this one by close to 20 points. Blowout time here. 8* GOLDEN STATE |
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12-23-16 | Bulls +4 v. Hornets | 91-103 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
NBA Game #701 Friday - Rickenbach 8* Chicago Bulls (+) @ Charlotte Hornets @ 7:05 ET - The Hornets will be the popular choice here as they had 2 full days off prior to this game and they have 2 full days off after this game. However, a scheduling situation like that (especially when coming off of back to back wins) can also lead to complacency and I look for the Bulls to be the far hungrier team in this one. Chicago is off of a loss and also has double revenge working in the favor here as they suffered a home loss to the Hornets in their most recent match-up also suffered a loss in their last visit to Charlotte too. The Hornets are on a 1-5 ATS skid and had lost 4 straight games before the aforementioned back to back wins. Look for the hungry and motivated Bulls to improve to 7-3 ATS this season in their games against teams with a winning record. 8* CHICAGO |
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12-23-16 | Georgia v. Oakland +2 | Top | 79-86 | Win | 100 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - CBB Game #742 Friday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Oakland Grizzlies (+) vs Georgia Bulldogs @ 7 ET - Nice situational aspects to this one. Oakland is off of a tough loss to in-state rival Michigan State. The Bulldogs are off of an easy win over in-state rival Georgia Tech. Georgia has had to travel. Oakland has stayed in their home state. The situational advantage is clearly in favor of the Grizzlies here and they also have revenge for a tight loss to Georgia in last year's meeting which also took place in December. The past three seasons combined the Bulldogs are an ugly 5-13 ATS when off of a game where they allowed 60 points or less. Long-term that run is an ugly 48-77 ATS with those same parameters so, as you can see, it's no fluke. As for Oakland, the Grizzlies have gone 22-8 ATS the past three seasons combined when they are an underdog. In their games against teams with a winning record, Oakland has gone 27-13 ATS. The Grizzlies have shot surprisingly poor in back to back games that occurred on back to back days. Now, after a day of rest, Oakland will be ready with fresh legs and I look for their hot shooting (in the high 40's with FG % their first 10 games this year) to resume tonight at home. Note that the Bulldogs have been held to 64 points or less in 3 of their 4 games played away from Georgia this season. More of the same here. 10* Top Play OAKLAND |
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12-23-16 | Stephen F Austin v. Southern Miss OVER 134 | 67-64 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
Total Dominator - CBB Game #751 Friday - Rickenbach 8* OVER the total in Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles vs Stephen F Austin Lumberjacks in Diamond Head Classic @ Stan Sheriff Center in Honolulu, HI @ 6:30 ET - Both these teams are off of unders yesterday in this tourney as Stephen F Austin faced Tulsa and had a rare, horrible shooting performance in the 74 to 51 loss to a 6-4 Golden Hurricane team that has been playing solid defense. Southern Mississippi also had a tough shooting night as they faced a 6-4 San Diego State team that has been playing great defense much of this season. The Golden Eagles were held to just 51 points on awful shooting from the floor. Prior to that game Southern Miss had another poor shooting performance against a Mississippi State team that is now 8-3 on the season. The point is that after facing tough defenses both teams are likely to get back on track on the offensive end today as they now face each a weaker defense and a losing team. After each scored 51 points yesterday, both will be looking to light it up today and I expect a good pace with plenty of open looks in this game. Keep in mind, both of these picks are allowing an average of 73+ points per game on the season. Neither team has defended well as the Lumberjacks and Golden Eagles are allowing 46.9% and 45.9%, respectively, from the field this season. Stephen F Austin had averaged scoring 80 points per game in their 4 games prior to yesterday's loss. The Lumberjacks are 11-5 to the over in games where they are favored and they have a great history in games where they have had 1 day or less of rest - a 22-2 SU mark. Of the 3 such games that had an O/U posted, all 3 went over the total. Look for Stephen F Austin to dictate the tempo in this one and there will be plenty of offense for both club's following yesterday's ugliness. 8* OVER the total in the Southern Miss game |
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12-22-16 | LSU +10 v. Wake Forest | Top | 76-110 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
CBB Game #531 Thursday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play LSU Tigers (+) @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons @ 9 ET - This line has gone from 8 to now double digits and the situation is offering exceptional value on the big dog. LSU only lost by 6 points to Wake Forest last season and yes this game is now on the road rather than at home but the fact is that the Tigers were outscored by 18 points on 3 pointers and that was the difference in the game. The Demon Deacons knocked down 8 threes in last season's match-up while LSU was held to an uncharacteristic 2 of 14 performance from three point land. Both teams come into this season's match-up with 8 wins but the Demon Deacons are off of a disheartening loss to Xavier in a game Wake Forest badly wanted. The fact is that Wake Forest is still a young team and that shows a lot of promise for the future but they still have struggled this season in games where they've had a chance to make a statement. They got the cover at Xavier but they lost the other two games both SU and ATS in which they've been dogs this season. Now, of course I realize Wake Forest is not a dog here but the point I am making is that they truly don't have a "signature win" yet this season as they also lost to Villanova and Northwestern. Now certainly LSU has had it's share of issues, including last year's frustrating finish but the fact is this is still a solid SEC program and I am going to challenge Wake Forest to not only win this game but to blow out the Tigers. I just don't see that happening. The Demon Deacons haven't proven capable of dismantling an opponent on the level of LSU yet this season and the Tigers have some added confidence from an 8-2 start this season and I expect them to stay within single digits all the way in this one. Overall, LSU has shot the ball just as well as Wake Forest this season and their defense has been even slightly better than that of the Demon Deacons. LSU is on a long-term run of 19-11 ATS as a road dog of 6.5 to 9 points and now this line has even moved up into double digits! A lot of points expected here and Wake Forest is 9-16 ATS (and 7-18 SU) in games with a posted total in the 150s. The Tigers are in this one all the way. 10* LSU TIGERS |
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12-22-16 | DePaul +3 v. Wyoming | 58-72 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
CBB Game #561 Thursday - Rickenbach 8* DePaul Blue Demons (+) vs Wyoming Cowboys in Las Vegas Classic @ Orleans Arena in Las Vegas, NV @ 8:30 ET - The Cowboys burned me recently when they had a surprising blowout win over Cornell but quickly came back down to earth with a non-covering win over Troy in their next game. Not including the blowout win over the Big Red, Wyoming's other 3 recent wins have come by an average margin of victory of just 5 points per game. The 2 opponents, besides Troy, were Montana and Colorado Christian. The point is that Wyoming is not exactly a dominant team and yet they sit at 9-2 on the season and are now laying points in a neutral site game against a quality DePaul team. The Blue Demons, though annually near the bottom of their conference, come from the Big East which is loaded with basketball talent. DePaul struggles in conference action as a result but non-conference action is a different story. The Blue Demons have a winning record in non-conference games the past 3 seasons combined and that includes a 7-4 mark so far this season. Wyoming is on a 13-22 ATS run as a favorite and the Blue Demons have seen forward Tre'Darius McCallum continue to "step up" this season and the backcourt tandem of Eli Cain and Billy Garrett, Jr (both 6'6 guards) will give the Cowboys some match-up issues. Cain has been shooting very well while Garrett continues to get to the free throw line with great regularity and this has given defenses problems trying to stop the drive but respect the perimeter shooting of DePaul's outside shooters. The Cowboys strong early start (albeit against weak competition) is masking the fact that this is still a team in rebuild mode. 8* DEPAUL BLUE DEMONSÂ |
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12-22-16 | San Diego v. North Texas -6 | 69-68 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
CBB Game #528 Thursday - Rickenbach 8* North Texas Mean Green (-) vs San Diego Toreros @ 8 ET - San Diego has won 4 straight games and they have covered 3 straight games. However, the Toreros schedule has been weak this month. On the season, when a dog of 5 points or more, San Diego has lost all 3 games and all were double digit defeats with an average margin of defeat of 17 points per loss. The Mean Green are 6-2 SU at home this season and, like the Toreros, have played mostly a weak early season schedule. However, I like the fact that North Texas is catching San Diego in their first trip east of Arizona. The point is that this won't be an easy travel spot (especially right before Christmas) for a Toreros team that has only won 6 of 27 road games the past 3 seasons combined. The Mean Green, in home games with a posted total in the 135 to 139.5 range, are on a 3-1 SU (and ATS) run. North Texas won, but was disappointed with their effort on defense, Tuesday and the Mean Green will respond Thursday with a huge effort in what is their final game until New Year's Eve. 8* NORTH TEXAS |
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12-22-16 | Magic +5.5 v. Knicks | Top | 95-106 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Month - NBA Game #501 Thursday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Orlando Magic (+) @ New York Knicks @ 7:35 ET - The Knicks were down 8 to the Pacers at home on Tuesday and then finished the game on an insane 27-12 run to sneak out a 7 point win as, coincidentally, a 5.5 point favorite at home. New York is in the same point spread range for this one on Thursday and I see value in fading them after their miracle cover over Indiana Tuesday. The Knicks had lost 3 straight prior to that win. Also prior to that victory, 6 of New York's last 10 wins had been decided by 4 points or less. The point is that even when the Knicks do win it is often by the slimmest of margins and they're going to have their hands full with Orlando here. The Magic have won 2 of their last 3 meetings with the Knicks and that includes a visit to New York. However, Orlando enters this game with revenge on their mind after losing their most recent visit to New York - in February. The Magic are off of a confidence-boosting win at Miami Tuesday and that outright upset win brought them to 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games away from home as they truly have been road warriors over the past 5 weeks! The Knicks are on a long-term 13-28 SU run against teams from the Southeast Division and they'll have trouble just winning - let alone covering - in this battle with a motivated underdog. New York is in a bit of a sandwich spot here as they are off of the big comeback win over Indiana and then have a big division rivalry game with Boston on deck for Christmas Day. Great spot for the dangerous dog and I'll take it. 10* Top Play ORLANDO MAGIC |
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12-21-16 | Rockets -6 v. Suns | Top | 125-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
NBA Game #711 Wednesday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Houston Rockets (-) @ Phoenix Suns @ 9:05 ET - The Rockets are off of a brutally bad beat last night at home against the rival Spurs. Houston led the game by 13 points with under 5 minutes to go and yet still lost the game. Amazingly San Antonio hit 12 of 23 three pointers while Houston hit an insanely bad 6 of 38 three pointers last night. Needless to say the Rockets are ticked off about the loss last night as they know they let one get away that they should have easily won despite the statistical anomaly on three point shooting. Houston is facing the right team to get back on track as the Suns are only 8-20 on the season. Also, only 4 of the 20 losses that Phoenix has had this season have come by less than 6 points. Blowout defeats are normal for the Suns and they're hosting a Rockets team that is 11-3 ATS this season in road games with a posted total of 210 points or more. Houston is also 11-3 ATS this season in their games against teams with a losing record. Also, even though this is a back to back spot for Houston, the Rockets have gone 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS when playing the 2nd night of a back to back. The Suns have covered just 3 of their last 12 games! Also, the road teams has won 6 of the last 7 meetings between these teams so home court has meant very little. That said, this is also a revenge game for the Rockets as they lost at home to the Suns in April in their most recent meeting. 10* Top Play HOUSTON |
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12-21-16 | Wizards +4 v. Bulls | 107-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
NBA Game #707 Wednesday - Rickenbach 8* Washington Wizards (+) @ Chicago Bulls @ 8:05 ET - The Bulls are off of a 113-82 win over the Pistons but Chicago hit a ridiculous 60% from the field in that game. Prior to that insane shooting performance the Bulls had lost 3 straight games averaged only 87 points per game. As for the Wizards, they are coming off of a loss but previously had won 3 straight games and averaged 116 points per contest. That sets this one up perfectly as we get extra line value with the hotter team as the markets tend to have short-term memory and will be looking more at what just happened in the most recent game. Washington has revenge here for a loss at Chicago earlier this season and the Wizards had won 2 of the 3 prior meetings including a big road win at Chicago last season. Washington is 10-6 ATS this season when playing with revenge while the Bulls are 5-8 ATS when playing against teams with a losing record this season. Also, against Southeast Division opponents, Chicago is on a long-term 12-29 ATS run and they are off of that big win inside their division against Detroit. That makes this a flat spot for the Bulls while, conversely, the Wizards are coming in hungry off of a loss and plus playing with revenge! 8* WASHINGTON |
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12-21-16 | Thunder v. Pelicans OVER 207 | 121-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
NBA Game #709 Wednesday - Rickenbach 8* OVER the total in New Orleans Pelicans vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 8:05 ET - The Thunder offense is back on track with 111 points per game in their past two games. The Pelicans come into this game averaged 107.3 points per game in their last 6 games. Couple these factors with the fact that this total has dropped with early market movement and it is "go time" with the over in this one. New Orleans likes to run and gun and the Thunder are happy to "join in" on that style of play. Prior to Oklahoma City's loss to Atlanta, 8 of their last 12 games had seen their opponent attempt at least 90 shots from the floor. Also, the Thunder loss to the Hawks was the 3rd time in the last 4 games that OKC has allowed their opponent to make at least 53.7% of their shots from the field. Of course New Orleans is not known for their defense so that sets this one up to be a shootout played at a frenetic pace. The over is a perfect 3-0 in the last 3 meetings between these teams in New Orleans. Of course that should not be a huge surprise because the over is an incredible 65-34 in Pelicans home games. Also, when the Pelicans are a home dog of 3 points or less the over has gone 12-5. The over is also a perfect 4-0 this season (and 23-11 the past three seasons) when New Orleans is off of a win by a margin of 10 points or more. After their big win at Philly last night, the Pelicans keep rolling on offense tonight. 8* OVER in New Orleans |
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12-21-16 | St. John's +13 v. Syracuse | 93-60 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show | |
CBB Game #721 Wednesday - Rickenbach 8* St John's Red Storm (+) @ Syracuse Orange @ 7 ET - Syracuse just absolutely demolished Eastern Michigan on Monday 105-57. However, so often, after a blowout win like that where everything breaks your way, things can be come so much tougher in the next game. That said, tonight's game is truly the perfect set-up for such struggles as the Orange are facing a Red Storm team that has been a bit of a nemesis for them. That means Syracuse has two battles to fight tonight. One is fatigue as the Orange will be playing their 3rd game in 5 nights. The other battle is in trying to knock off a St John's team that has defeated them by 12 points in each of the last two meetings. As for Syracuse being able to absolutely dominate tonight and cover this large spread, note that the Red Storm have covered 9 of the last 11 meetings between these teams. Also, the Orange have Tyler Lydon listed as questionable for tonight's game. Syracuse is only 4-8 ATS when they are off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. Also, St John's has been at their best in their toughest games this season as they have already covered 4 of 6 against teams with a winning record. More of the same for the Red Storm this evening. 8* ST JOHN'S |
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12-21-16 | Nebraska-Omaha +13.5 v. Pittsburgh | 75-94 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 33 m | Show | |
CBB Game #771 Wednesday - Rickenbach 8* Nebraska-Omaha Mavericks (+) @ Pittsburgh Panthers @ 7 ET - Those who follow my CBB closely know there are two key reasons why I am fading the Panthers here. One is that Pittsburgh absolutely burned me badly this past weekend against Rice. Those who played it late got a win with Rice at +10.5 but it was a loss in my books for certain as I released it at +9.5 and what a burner it was. The Owls were in the game all the way and then Pitt did pull away late but still it was an 8 point game with about 30 seconds to go when Rice then missed BOTH free throws and Pitt followed by making BOTH free throws. It was the only way I could lose that play and I'll be damned if it didn't happen. Anyway, the other reason I am involved as followers know is that I do like taking high-scoring big dogs and Nebraska-Omaha certainly fits that description as they were top 5 in the nation for pace last year and are averaging 83 points per game so far this year. This gives us two chances to win a play like this essentially because part of it is that the Mavericks can score well enough to hang around all game long. However, part two is that even if the Mavs do get down by 15 to 20 points there is that opportunity for late scoring runs to get them in the backdoor. I expect Omaha to hang around in this game as Pittsburgh shot a ridiculous 64.4% from the field against Rice and yet still only won by 10 points. It is no fluke either as the Panthers also shot 54.5% from Buffalo a few games back and yet only beat the Bulls by 5 points. Of course the reason is that the Panthers D just isn't what it use to be and they will have their hands full with the Mavericks here. Omaha thrives in games like this with an 11-5 ATS mark in road games with a posted total in the 160s. The Panthers are on a 14-31 ATS run as a favorite and they are again over-priced here. 8* NEBRASKA-OMAHAÂ |
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12-21-16 | Oakland v. Michigan State -6 | Top | 65-77 | Win | 100 | 6 h 53 m | Show |
CBB Game #728 Wednesday - 10* Top Play Michigan State Spartans (-) vs Oakland (Mich) Grizzlies @ 7 ET - The Grizzlies are 9-2 on the season and the Spartans are only 7-5. However, Michigan State has played a very tough early season schedule while Oakland has played a very weak early season schedule. That is skewing the market in this one and it has led to exceptional value with the Big Ten team who is far too proud to not bring a huge effort tonight against this Horizon League team. This is an in-state match-up and the Spartans have won all 13 meetings the past 20 years. That said, we're getting exceptional line value here with this one dropping all the way down to a -6 on Michigan State. Take a look at the last two meetings as an example of the disparity between these teams in terms of talent level and how that translates to how the games play out on the floor. In last season's meeting the Grizzlies actually led by 13 at the half. However, the Spartans then outscored them by 19 points the rest of the way. In the prior season's meeting Michigan State was up by 13 points at half and then outscored them by another 13 in the 2nd half in the 26 point win. The fact is that, even if one perceives this to be a "down season" for the Spartans, they have dominated the Grizzlies in the past and they don't have to be truly "dominant" for us to get the cash in this one. That has me raising this one to Top Play level. The Spartans are 4-2 ATS this season in their games against teams with a winning record. Michigan State will be ready to respond off of a loss to Northeastern Sunday and they have the rest edge over Oakland here as the Grizzlies just did battle with Northeastern yesterday! Plus the Grizzlies have another game on deck before Christmas (versus Georgia Friday) while this is the Spartans only chance (before the Christmas break) to respond off of a disappointing loss. 10* MICHIGAN STATE |
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12-20-16 | Creighton -8 v. Arizona State | Top | 96-85 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
TV Top Play - CBB Game #541 Tuesday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Creighton Blue Jays (-) @ Arizona State Sun Devils @ 9 ET - Laying 8 on the road against a Pac-12 team with a good reputation may seem a little "scary" on the surface but this is the perfect spot for the Blue Jays. They just survived a scare at home (against Oral Roberts) and snuck out a 1-point victory. Creighton doesn't play again until after Christmas and you can be sure that they learned the lesson in their tight win over Oral Roberts and now will be be prepared to blowout the Sun Devils in this one. Arizona State beat the Blue Jays at Creighton by a bucket last December so this is a revenge game for the road fave here. Creighton is the better team on defense and an inconsistent Sun Devils team went from bad to worse as their starting small forward recently left the team. The Blue Jays only scored 66 points against Oral Roberts Saturday and the only other two times they have been held under 80 points this season they responded with big wins in their next game and scored over 100 points in each contest. This included a big win over another Pac-12 team, Washington State, and that certainly is an indication of what to expect for Creighton tonight at Arizona State. The Blue Jays have covered 5 of 7 this season against teams with a winning record. The Sun Devils have gone an ugly 2-5 ATS against teams with a winning record. Revenge is on order tonight at Arizona State as the dangerous Blue Jays offense (53.8% from the field, 89.3 points per game, 44.4% from beyond the arc) responds off of a rare, poor performance. 10* Top Play CREIGHTON |
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12-20-16 | Spurs v. Rockets +1 | Top | 102-100 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
NBA TV Blowout Smash - NBA Game #516 - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Houston Rockets (+) vs San Antonio Spurs @ 8:05 ET - The Spurs are off of a huge win over the Pelicans on Sunday on a night in which Tim Duncan's jersey was retired. San Antonio now travels the short distance to face Houston and I don't think they'll have enough left in the tank to get past a Rockets team that has its sight set on revenge. The Rockets lost to San Antonio in early November and that was the 4th time in 5 games that the Spurs have defeated Houston. The Rockets will have something to say about that tonight as they come into this game having won 10 straight games and they are fired up about the fact that they haven't defeated the Spurs in Houston since Christmas of last year. The Rockets have played a tougher schedule than San Antonio so far this season and Houston is 9-2 ATS (and 10-1 SU) when playing with revenge this season. Also, the Rockets are 13-1 SU (and 12-2 ATS) when they are off of a game where they allowed 105 points or more. I am aware of the Clint Capela injury for Houston but they are so highly motivated for this game and so well-rested (2 days off between games) that they'll make up for the absence of this gritty "hustle" player. The Spurs have covered 4 straight games but they've faced some weak opposition during this stretch and, prior to that, San Antonio had failed to cover 9 of its 13 prior games. The value here is with the home team as the line has now moved the other way to increase the value on a team that has revenge and a 10-game winning streak and home court all on their side! 10* Top Play HOUSTON |
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12-20-16 | Pacers +5.5 v. Knicks | 111-118 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
Early Contrarian Crusher - NBA Game #509 Tuesday - Rickenbach 8* Indiana Pacers (+) @ New York Knicks @ 7:35 ET - The Pacers don't even have to win this game for us to cash our ticket. That said, it is certainly noteworthy that Indiana comes into this match-up having won 7 straight games against the Knicks. The Pacers are likely catching New York at the right time too because the Knicks have lost 3 straight games and just returned home from a grueling 5-game trip out west. Coming back east after a lengthy road trip to the west is often very tough on teams in the first game back home and I fully expect that to be the case with the Knicks tonight. New York's defense is fading of late as they have allowed 47% or better from the field in 4 of their last 6 games. As for the Pacers, they have allowed just 40.3% from the field in their last 5 games combined. Look for Indiana to continue to rely on solid D as they look to make it 8 straight over the Knicks tonight. New York is 5-13 SU (including 0-2 this season) when they enter a game having played each of their three prior games on the road. 8* INDIANA |
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12-20-16 | Richmond v. James Madison OVER 131.5 | 75-55 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
Early Total Dominator - CBB Game #527 Tuesday - Rickenbach 8* OVER the total in James Madison Dukes vs Richmond Spiders @ 7 ET - This total has dropped from an opener of 135.5 to as low as a 131 as of gameday morning. It is a good value on the over because both teams games have averaged around 140 points a game so far this season so, in my opinion, the move on this total went 4.5 points the wrong way as it should have moved higher. Last year James Madison beat Richmond 87 to 75 so this is a revenge spot for the Spiders. While I don't expect the team to again combine for 162 points I do expect Richmond to push the tempo in this one as they are hungry for revenge in this in-state rivalry game. The Spiders are averaging 72.2 points per game in their last 6 games and the Dukes are off of a loss at Appalachian State but, prior to that game James Madison had scored at least 67 points in 6 of their last 8 games. Of their last 7 games with an O/U posted on the match-up, 6 of the 7 totaled at least 134 points. The over is 10-3 in Richmond's games with a posted total in the 130s and also 12-4 when the Spiders are a road fave in a range of 3.5 to 6 points. Also, the over is 8-4 when Richmond is facing a team with a losing record. The over is 7-4 when James Madison is a home dog in a range of 3.5 to 6 points. Also, the over is 4-1 when the Dukes enter a game on an ATS losing streak of 3 games or more. Before their loss to Appalachian State stayed just under the total, 5 of the Dukes last 6 games with an O/U posted had gone over the total. More of the same here. 8* OVER the total in James Madison |
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12-19-16 | Pistons v. Bulls UNDER 196 | 82-113 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
Black-n-Blue Punisher - NBA Game #706 Monday - Rickenbach 8* UNDER the total in Chicago Bulls vs Detroit Pistons @ 8:05 ET - Both teams are on losing streaks so that means no let-up on defensive intensity here as each team knows they can ill afford to relax on the defensive end. The Bulls are off of a loss to Milwaukee where they shot 30.4% from the field. The Pistons are off of a loss to Indiana where they shot 38.1% from the field. I don't expect any dramatic changes here as the under is now 6-2 in Detroit's last 8 games and 5-1 in Chicago's last 6 games. On the season the Pistons have a triple perfect totals system in effect here. Detroit is 3-0 to the under when off of a divisional game, 4-0 to the under in divisional games, and 6-0 to the under when off of an upset loss as a favorite. The Bulls have a quadruple perfect totals system in effect here. Chicago is 1-0 to the under as a home fave of 3 points or less, 3-0 to the under when playing with 2 days of rest, 5-0 to the under when off of a divisional game, and 2-0 to the under when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3 games or more. Add it all up and you have combined edges here that favor the under to the tune of 24-0, 100% PERFECT this SEASON! I like my chances here with the under in a game that is unlikely to feature many easy points around the basket as these division rivals have great disdain for each other. 8* UNDER in Chicago |
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12-19-16 | Eastern Michigan +12.5 v. Syracuse | 57-105 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
Watch-n-Win Crusher - CBB Game #711 Monday - Rickenbach 8* Eastern Michigan Eagles (+) @ Syracuse Orange @ 7 ET - As always, Syracuse is a "dangerous" team but they lost a lot of firepower (to say the least!) from an Orange team that was in the Final Four last season. The key to the value here is that last year's team is still fresh in the memory of the marketplace and Syracuse continues to have a tendency of being over-priced. I believe that is precisely the case here as the Orange are priced at more than a dozen in this one against an Eastern Michigan team that is one of the top teams in MAC. Yes, of course, the MAC is not the ACC but the point is that this Eagles team has a veteran-laden roster with strong guard play and a key to being competitive against a Jim Boeheim coached team is having veteran floor leaders and a solid backcourt. The Eagles have that covered and I look for them to be a tough "out" for the Orange tonight. Even though Syracuse is off of a loss this is a tough scheduling spot as they just played on Saturday. Yes it is true that Eastern Michigan also just played on Saturday as well but, keep in mind, the Eagles aren't the ones being asked to cover a large number in this game! Eastern Michigan is shooting 47% on the season and averaging 85 points per game. Certainly the Eagles defense is not on par with that of the Orange but their offense is dangerous and they can trade buckets with the Orange throughout this game. I look for Syracuse, off of a loss, to be content to "grind out a win" here and I don't see them covering this large number against a talented Eagles team. Also, the Orange have another game (St John's) on deck for Wednesday so this is part of a 3 games in 5 days stretch for Syracuse and Boeheim will manage the players' minutes accordingly. Conversely, Eastern Michigan has a small school on deck and that game is not until Thursday so the Eagles are "all in" for this game tonight! The Orange are 0-3 ATS this season in their games against teams with a winning record while the Eagles are already 3-1 ATS on the season. Those trends continue here. 8* EASTERN MICHIGAN |
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12-18-16 | Western Michigan +12.5 v. Washington | 86-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 0 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - CBB Game #531 Sunday - Rickenbach 8* Western Michigan Broncos (+) @ Washington Huskies @ 8 ET - The Broncos and Huskies both are below .500 so far this season and certainly the Huskies are the better team from the bigger conference. However, I view this as a very difficult spot for Washington to cover a large impost. They've been off for over a week. So too have the Broncos but they're not being asked to cover a big number like the Huskies are. The last time Washington had a week of rest they then got blasted by 27 against Gonzaga as they had their worst shooting night of the season. They're a rather young team which can make the time off even more difficult. As for Western Michigan, they returned four starters from last season's team and they're early season schedule has been just as difficult as the Huskies so don't underestimate them here. Both teams lack in terms of defense but the Broncos can put up big points and that will allow them to trade buckets with the Huskies throughout this game in my opinion. The points are simply too much here for Washington in what is a challenging situation for an offense to be in rhythm. The Broncos are 7-4 ATS in their games against teams averaging 77 points or more per game. Washington is on a 4-7 ATS run in games after having 5 or 6 days of rest between games. 8* WESTERN MICHIGAN |
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12-18-16 | Pelicans +13 v. Spurs | 100-113 | Push | 0 | 8 h 31 m | Show | |
Divisional Dominator - NBA Game #513 Sunday - Rickenbach 8* New Orleans Pelicans (+) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 7:05 ET - Tonight the Spurs will have a retirement ceremony for Tim Duncan so certainly it will be a big night at the AT & T Center in San Antonio. Also, I am well aware of the Anthony Davis injury situation (currently listed as questionable) for the Pelicans. The fact is that the Spurs haven't been blowing teams out with any regularity at all this season and this line is inflated due to both of the reasons noted above. Also, the Spurs do have a huge game on deck with the rival Rockets in Houston and New Orleans did not have Jrue Holiday available in the first match-up between these teams earlier this season. The Spurs won that game by 19 points and that is one of only 2 home wins by more than 10 points that San Antonio has this entire season. They've struggled to pull away in many of their wins and they're going to face an angry Pelicans team here. New Orleans is not happy about their blowout loss at Houston Friday (Davis was pulled half-way through 3rd quarter as a precaution) and they'll be fired up to get back on track tonight. New Orleans is 14-5 ATS in Sunday games the past three seasons. The Spurs are a different team without Duncan and San Antonio has gone only 4-7 ATS at home this season and just 1-3 ATS when playing with 2 days of rest. The Spurs want this win badly because of Duncan tonight and that pressure could lead to an "off" shooting night. Don't be surprised if the Pelicans keep this game much closer than many are expecting. 8* NEW ORLEANS |
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12-17-16 | Pacers v. Pistons -3.5 | Top | 105-90 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
Never Lost Top Play - NBA Game #704 Saturday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Detroit Pistons (-) vs Indiana Pacers @ 7:05 ET - The Pistons lost at Washington last night but the Wizards simply shot lights out as they hit a ridiculous 57% of their shots including 48% (12 of 25) from beyond the arc. Detroit, even though this is a back to back, is happy to be back home tonight. On the season they are 5-0, 100% ATS was a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. The Pistons will have extra fire and motivation for this game because they did lose their last home game (by 18 points) to the lowly Sixers so Detroit will bring a huge effort for the home fans tonight. The Pistons are hosting a Pacers team that is only 3-10 ATS on the road this season. The home team has taken each of the last three meetings between these teams and the average margin of victory in the last four meetings has been 13.5 points. I am very comfortable laying the small number with the home team in this one! 10* Top Play DETROIT PISTONS Saturday |
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12-17-16 | Rice +9.5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 73-83 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
Non-Conf Game of the Month - CBB Game #747 Saturday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Rice Owls (+) @ Pittsburgh Panthers @ 7 ET - There is no doubt about it that even though these teams are both 8-2 on the season, the Panthers have played the much tougher schedule. However, with winning comes a lot of confidence and the Owls are filled with confidence right now. Keep in mind, this is a Rice team that returned their top five scorers from last season's team plus they brought back Marcus Jackson who had missed all of last season. So, essentially, the Owls brought back 6 top scorers as in the 2014-15 season, Jackson had averaged 14.5 points per game. Even though the Panthers have a decided edge in the frontcourt in this match-up, the weakness of Pittsburgh is that they do have some vulnerability to athletic backcourts and the Owls are certainly 'stacked' in that department! Not only is Rice full of confidence with an 8-2 record, note that their two losses came by a TOTAL of just three points! The Panthers are coming off of a full week off as they have not played since last Saturday when they defeated Penn State. That makes this a tough spot for Pittsburgh because it is tough to just hit the court and be firing on all cylinders after a long layoff and so being asked to win by 10 points or more here is asking a lot! 5 of the Panthers 8 wins this season have come by 8 points or less. They're not known for blowing teams out and lost key personnel from last season's team. Pittsburgh is actually on an ugly 12-23 ATS run in home games and poor 14-30 ATS run as a favorite. The Owls are a perfect 3-0 ATS as an underdog this season and head coach Mike Rhoades is in his 3rd season now and this team is starting to put it together as many teams often do when in the 3rd campaign of a coaching transition. 10* RICE OWLS plus the points Saturday evening |
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12-17-16 | Cornell +10 v. Wyoming | 78-97 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - CBB Game #739 Saturday - Rickenbach 8* Cornell Big Red (+) @ Wyoming Cowboys @ 6 ET - The Cowboys will likely be a popular choice Saturday because Cornell has not played since November 30th! However, this is the "annual exam break" that the Big Red have and so it is not something they are completely unfamiliar with. Also, Cornell returned 97% of their statistical contributors from last season's team in terms of minutes, points, assists, and rebounds. The point is that this is more of a veteran team and they are familiar with having this long layoff between games. The Big Red have won 2 of their last 4 games and in the 0-3 stretch that started their season they lost those games by an average margin of just 7 points. That is significant here because Wyoming has not been blowing out teams this season. The Cowboys, though 7-2 on the season and though having played an easier schedule than Cornell, have seen their last 6 wins come by an average margin of only 6.7 points per game and NONE of the wins came by more than a dozen points. Also, it is hard to blowout an opponent when a team has had extra rest and the Cowboys have been off since playing last Saturday. When Wyoming enters a game having had 5 or 6 days of rest between games they have gone 0-5 ATS! Also, speaking of a failure to blowout lesser foes, the Cowboys are known for overlooking teams as they are 4-15 ATS the past three seasons in their games against teams with a losing record. First year Cornell coach Brian Earl (a star player at Princeton not too long ago) has brought a new energy and new attitude to this Big Red team and a trip to Spain in August (went 3-0) helped this team bond quicker with its new coaching staff. I know the Big Red record does not look good so far this season but they are starting to turn the corner and this team will not quit and that makes for a dangerous dog in a spot like this with Wyoming likely coming in sluggish. The Big Red are 28-14 ATS long-term in December games and they add another W to that record here. 8* CORNELL BIG RED early Saturday evening |
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12-17-16 | Arizona +3.5 v. Texas A&M | 67-63 | Win | 100 | 3 h 14 m | Show | |
High Noon Showdown - CBB Game #767 Saturday - Rickenbach 8* Arizona Wildcats (+) vs Texas A & M Aggies @ Lone Star Shootout @ Honda Center in Houston, Texas @ Noon ET - Even though this neutral site location certainly favors the Aggies in their home state, it still is not Texas A & M's home court. Don't be surprised if that ends up being an issue for A & M because they'll be facing arguably the toughest defense they've seen all season and I look for the Aggies to struggle to knock down shots in this one. After this line opened up at a pick'em it has now gone as high as a -3.5 on the Aggies and I see huge value on the underdog Wildcats as a result. Arizona, under Sean Miller, is well-coached and coming off of an easier portion of their schedule that allowed them to rest up some after a grueling start to the year. Though they are young, Arizona is playing extremely well and also has good size to match-up well with the Aggies solid frontcourt. That is another key to this match-up and is an area that the Cats should enjoy success in. The Wildcats have held 7 of their last 9 opponents to 40% or less from the field. The Aggies just allowed South Carolina State (!) to hit 43.8% from the field and, in their most recent game against a tougher team (ULCA), Texas A & M allowed the Bruins to hit 47.5% from the field. The Wildcats also are the better three point shooting team in comparison with the Aggies and Arizona defends the 3-point shot much better than A & M as well. The Wildcats are 3-0 SU and ATS against the SEC the past three seasons. Texas A & M is only on a 5-5 ATS run in December games while the Wildcats have dominated with an 11-6 ATS mark and 15-2 SU mark in the month of December. 8* ARIZONA WILDCATS early Saturday |
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12-16-16 | South Dakota +4 v. Portland | Top | 82-85 | Win | 100 | 22 h 6 m | Show |
Dam City Classic - CBB Game #525 Friday - 10* Top Play South Dakota Coyotes (+) vs Portland Pilots @ Moda Center in Portland, OR @ 8:30 ET - The Pilots returned much of their playing rotation from last season's team but they have a rookie head coach in former NBA player Terry Porter. The Coyotes lost all 5 starters from last year but are a bit of a "hidden gem" as coach Craig Smith (in his 6th season) brought in 3 Division 1 transfers prior to this season. That is a big edge for South Dakota as they brought in Matt Mooney (from Air Force), Carlton Hurst (from Colorado State), and Trey Dickerson (from Iowa). Keep in mind those guys are from much bigger programs than the Summit League that the Coyotes play in and even bigger schools than the West Coast Conference where Portland resides. That said, I am not surprised that South Dakota is already 7-2 ATS this season and I would also not be surprised to see them upset Portland in this game. Even though this game is being played in Portland it is not the Pilots home venue. That said, don't expect the Pilots offense to necessarily light it up here from downtown and they do rely heavily on their three point shooting. The Coyotes thrive in games projected to be higher scoring. In games with a posted total in the 140 to 149.5 range, South Dakota has gone 12-5 ATS the past three seasons while the Pilots have a 4-12 SU record in games with a posted total in that same range over the same time period. Also, both of these teams come in with extra rest and the Coyotes are 4-1 ATS when playing with 5 or 6 days of rest. The Pilots are on a 6-12 ATS run when playing with 7 or more days of rest. Also, when off of a game where they scored 80 points or more, Portland has gone 0-2 ATS this season and an ugly 4-13 ATS the past three seasons combined. The Pilots are off of a big win but previously had lost 3 of their last 4 games. The Coyotes come into this game having covered three straight games. Look for them to make it 4 straight as they are playing very well (and with confidence) under coach Smith who just celebrated his birthday with the team and now this will be the proverbial "icing on the cake" here. 10* SOUTH DAKOTA Friday night |
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12-16-16 | Lakers v. 76ers -1 | Top | 100-89 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 42 m | Show |
ESPN Blowout Rout - NBA Game #516 Friday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76'ers (-) vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 8:05 ET - The Lakers have lost (and failed to cover!) all 8 of their games so far this month. There is no reason for that to change here. Yes, it is "only" the Sixers Friday night so, on the surface, it looks like this would be an ideal spot for the Lakers to snap their streak. However, the Sixers were playing quite well until coming up just short of the cover Wednesday. Admittedly, the 76'ers didn't deserve to cover that game as their defense allowed the Raptors to hit 47.1% from the field. However, prior to that ATS loss, the Sixers had covered 3 straight games and held all 4 opponents under 39.4% from the field. Unlike Philadelphia, Los Angeles has not been playing good defense. Prior to holding Brooklyn to 38.4% from the field on Wednesday, the Lakers had allowed their last 7 opponents to average a combined 50% from the field. It is no wonder that LA has been struggling badly and the home team did win both match-ups between these teams last year and the Sixers are hungry. Philly had enjoyed back to back road wins before the home loss to Toronto so they look to make up for that defeat Friday night. Philadelphia is 9-5 ATS this season when off of a game where they allowed 105 points or more. Also, the Sixers have gone 6-3 ATS against teams with a losing record this season. The Lakers have played 4 games against Atlantic Division opponents this season and they have not gotten the cash in a single game. Look for that trend to continue tonight. The Lakers are playing their 4th game in 6 nights while the Sixers are playing just their 3rd game in 8 nights. The fresh legs get the cash on their home floor tonight. 10* Top Play PHILADELPHIA 76'ers Friday night |
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12-15-16 | Pacers v. Pelicans UNDER 210.5 | 95-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
Total Dominator - NBA Game #702 Thursday - Rickenbach 8* UNDER the total in New Orleans Pelicans vs Indiana Pacers @ 8:05 ET - The Pelicans have totaled 3 overtime periods in just their last 5 games alone and that certainly has skewed their stats as it has inflated the point totals. New Orleans comes into this game off of a 113-109 home loss but note that it was Golden State whom they faced. The Pelicans will look to shore things up on defense after that home loss to the Warriors and that has been evident in situations like this throughout this season. When New Orleans is off of a game where they allowed 105 points or more, the under has gone 10-4 in their next game! Also, prior to the Golden State game, the Pelicans had shot less than 40% from the field in 4 of their last 5 games. As for the Pacers, they come into this game off of an ugly 95 to 89 loss at Miami last night. I had the over when Indiana faced Charlotte in their prior game but that play came up short. Last night's loss to the Heat shows that also stayed under the total shows which direction this Pacers offense is likely to be headed for awhile. They are banged up now and also playing their 8th game in 12 days so they may not have their best "shooting legs" on offense to say the least! It's been a tough schedule for Indiana the past two weeks. In their last 4 road games the Pacers have only shot a combined 42% from the field. With both these teams off of losses and looking to bounce back the defense from both teams should be solid here. The under is on a 16-8 run in this series in games played at New Orleans and last season both games (including the one in Indiana) totaled 177 points or less in each game. 8* UNDER the total in New Orleans Thursday |
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12-15-16 | UCF v. George Washington -3 | 59-74 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - CBB Game #712 Thursday - Rickenbach 8* George Washington Colonials (-) vs Central Florida Knights @ 7 ET - The Knights were already worried about a thin bench coming into the season and now the injuries to B.J. Taylor (#1 scorer) and Chance McSpadden (solid reserve) have exasperated the situation. Central Florida is off to a surprisingly strong start this season but they are coming off of a loss where they scored just 49 points and that could be a sign of things to come with Taylor out. Making this situation even worse for the Knights thin rotation is the fact that this will be their 3rd game in 5 days. UCF got blasted at home by the Colonials last December and now they have to face them at George Washington this December. The Colonials have won 4 of their last 5 games (including a big upset win of Temple). The only loss during this stretch was to Florida State and George Washington was a double digit dog for that game so it was expected. This is the Colonials "time of year" and they are proving it once again with their high level of play this month. They are 15-3 SU (and 10-6 ATS) in December games the past three seasons combined. The Knights are on a 5-8 ATS run in December games and they're really hurting without B.J. Taylor. George Washington won by 17 at Central Florida last season and while I expect this game to be closer, the margin should still be plenty for the cover. 7'6 300 lb Tacko Fall has certainly emerged in his sophomore season for the Knights but the Colonials have good size all over the floor and they did a great job against Fall in last season's match-up too. 8* GEORGE WASHINGTON Thursday |
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12-14-16 | Celtics v. Spurs OVER 200.5 | Top | 101-108 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
ESPN Game of the Month - NBA Game #519 Wednesday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Antonio vs Boston @ 9:35 ET - The Celtics, without Isaiah Thomas, blew out Orlando in a game that ended up being their 5th over in the last 7 games. However, that has been followed by back to back games where Boston has let big leads get away and each of those two games stayed under the total. As a result, look for the Celtics to "push" all night long in San Antonio tonight. Boston knows they must keep pushing and can't try to sit back on a lead. Of course facing the Spurs ensures that getting and maintaining a lead won't be easy. San Antonio is now 19-5 on the season after the blew out Brooklyn in a game in which they put up 130 points on the scoreboard. After the home loss to Orlando in late November, much was being made of the Spurs struggles at home this season. As a result, San Antonio is pushing a lot more at home and they've scored an average of 118.5 points per game game in their two games at the AT & T Center since the loss to the Magic. Look for the high-scoring trend to continue Wednesday as these Spurs are truly not the defensive-minded Spurs of old. They just aren't the same without Tim Duncan in the middle and Coach Popovich has even gotten a bit "softer" in his ways with this team. Off of an easy win over the Nets, the Spurs have even more reason to "relax" some on defense in this one. For the third straight time when these teams match up, look for an over to result. The Celtics are averaging 104.5 points per game this season and the over is 8-5 this season in Spurs games against teams averaging 99 or more points per game. Also, the over is a perfect 2-0 in SA's games against teams from the Atlantic Division. Boston has had two days off since the loss at Oklahoma City and I look for the Celtics to improve to 3-1 to the over this season in games where they enter with two days of rest. 10* OVER the total in San Antonio |
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12-14-16 | Kings v. Rockets -9.5 | 98-132 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
100% Never Lost System - NBA Game #514 Wednesday - Rickenbach 8* Houston Rockets (-) vs Sacramento Kings @ 8:05 ET - The Rockets are off of a non-covering win versus Brooklyn Monday. The significance in this is the fact that it was the 25th game for Houston this season and they have yet to have back to back ATS losses. Every time the Rockets have come off of an ATS loss they have covered their next game and I look for that trend to improve on the 7-0, 100% ATS mark on the season with another cover tonight. Houston is 9-2 ATS against teams with a losing record this season and they also have gone 11-2 ATS this season when they are off of a game where they allowed 105 points or more. The Kings are off of a rare win as they had lost 5 of their 6 prior games. The rare victory sets Sacramento up perfectly to get blown out here. When the Kings are off of a win by 10 points or more this season, they have gone 0-4 ATS! Also, in December games the past 3 seasons, Sacramento is on a combined 9-23 ATS run. Note the perfect trends above combine to make this an 11-0, 100% perfect ATS spot to play on the Rockets and against the Kings. 8* HOUSTON |
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12-14-16 | Wisc-Milwaukee v. Ohio OVER 139 | Top | 69-71 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - CBB Game #523 Wednesday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play OVER the total in Ohio University Bobcats vs Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers @ 7 ET - Wisconsin-Milwaukee is coming off of a loss at Loyola-Illinois where the Panthers allowed a ridiculous 67.5% shooting percentage from the field. Certainly UW-Milw would like to improve on that here but the problem is that they were repeatedly beaten in the paint. Not only are the Panthers small in the post they are facing an Ohio University team that has good size down low and absolutely is fully capable of dominating them in the paint just like Loyola-Chicago did on Saturday. The one thing the Panthers do have going for them is some hot shooting and this includes hitting 40% or better from three point land in four straight games. The Panthers have averaged 74.7 points per game in their 3 games prior to an ugly loss to Loyola-Illiniois. Look for Wisconsin-Milwaukee to continue the hot shooting and put up big points here but they won't be able to stop the Bobcats inside game. Ohio U is averaging 78..6 points per game this season but, as hot as their offense has been, the Bobcats are getting lax on defense and, in their last two lined games they've allowed at least 46.7% from the field and an average of 88.5 points per game. The over is 6-2 in Panthers games this season and also 14-5 the past three seasons combined in games with a posted total in the 130 to 139.5 range. Also, when off of a game where they scored 60 points or less, the Panthers have gone 3-0 to the over this season. The over is 7-3 in the Bobcats last 10 Wednesday games and this midweek match-up is conducive to another one flying past the number. 10* OVER the total in Ohio University |
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12-14-16 | St. Joe's +8 v. Princeton | 76-68 | Win | 100 | 7 h 40 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - CBB Game #525 Wednesday - Rickenbach 8* St Joseph's Hawks (+) @ Princeton Tigers @ 5 ET - Both teams are 4-4 so far this season. Although Princeton is at home for this one and the Tigers have the better defensive stats on the season, they have played the easier schedule. In other words, St Joseph's is undervalued here. They are getting significant points even though they've faced some tough competition and have gone 14-5 ATS in game with a posted total in the 130 to 139.5 range the past 3 seasons combined. Certainly the Hawks are in rebuilding mode after losing their 3 leading scorers from last season's team. However, St Joseph's turned the corner with their win at Drexel Sunday and that helps build confidence for this "still developing" team that is certainly well-coached under Phil Martelli who is in his 22nd year with the Hawks in Philly. The fact that St Joseph's has failed to cover 5 straight games is helping to inflate this line. Princeton has struggled every time they've stepped up in level of competition this season. The Tigers only wins are against Liberty, Hawaii, Rowan, and Lafayette. You may think Hawaii was a "big win" but Princeton was a double digit favorite for a reason in that one. Hawaii is only 4-5 on the season and their wins were against weak teams. The Tigers did return their full rotation from last year's team and that certainly helps them but this is still "Ivy League basketball" and the boys from Philly will have something to say about that in this ultra early game Wednesday. Princeton is on a 6-12 ATS run in non-conference action the past 3 seasons combined and they again appear to be over-priced here. 8* ST JOSEPH'S |
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12-13-16 | Wolves v. Bulls -7 | Top | 99-94 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
ESPN Best Bet 10* - NBA Game #706 Tuesday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Chicago Bulls (-) vs Minnesota Timberwolves @ 8:05 ET - The Bulls have had two full off days leading into this game so they are rested and ready physically. They lost both match-ups with the Timberwolves last season so they certainly are ready psychologically as well. The motivation is there, the fresh legs are there, and Minnesota is struggling badly. Not only are the T-wolves just 6-18 on the season, they have lost 8 of their last 9 games heading into this one. Also, Minnesota is on a 6-31 SU (11-26 ATS) run in December games. They're facing a Bulls team that is off of back to back wins but just had their first non-covering win of the season. Chicago's first 12 wins this season all were covers as well but they were a big home favorite versus Miami on Saturday and fell short of the cover. The Bulls are 22-8 SU (and 19-11 ATS) the past 3 seasons when they are playing with 2 days of rest between games. They have won and covered in this situation both times this year (2-0 SU and ATS) and Minnesota has gone 0-3 (SU and ATS) in road games with a posted total between 205 and 209.5 points this season. So here were are testing a combined 5-0, 100% ATS spot this season and certainly the situational factors are there for a Bulls blowout win. 10* Top Play CHICAGO BULLS Monday evening |
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12-13-16 | Temple +16.5 v. Villanova | Top | 57-78 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
PA Insider 10* - CBB Game #713 Tuesday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Temple Owls (+) @ Villanova Wildcats @ 7 ET - This is one of those Big Five games in Philly and this one is being played on the Main Line as Villanova does battle with Temple. With those not from the area or not familiar with the "Big Five" series it certainly is a big deal in the Philadelphia area. This is why, even though Villanova is currently ranked #1 in the nation and also are the reigning NCAA Champs, I have no qualms about backing the Owls in this spot. Temple won't be intimidated all in this big game and the points are simply too much here as I expect the Owls to be able to stay within single digits throughout this game. They recently welcomed back senior guard Josh Brown and he's gradually been increasing his minutes (and his overall production) in each of the four games since returning from the injury to his left Achilles. In his absence, Shizz Alston has done a great job with the ball handling and that has made the rotation even deeper in the backcourt. Daniel Dingle is a solid swingman who is a great defender and then big man Obi Enechionyia is having a huge season with big scoring (including knocking down big threes) and his rebounding and shot blocking. The point is that, while Temple is certainly not on the same level as Villanova (of course!), they definitely are a well-rounded team with good inside-out balance and they are very well coached under Fran Dunphy who is in the 28th year of his career. The Owls play solid defense and they also (just like Villanova) are knocking down 39% of their threes so far this season. The 3-ball also helps big dogs to "hang around" in a game and I like the balanced attack of Temple to make them a dangerous dog in this one. The Owls are already 5-0 ATS as an underdog this season and they've gone 9-2 ATS the last 3 seasons combined in their games against teams that are averaging 77 points or more per game. The Wildcats are 1-4 ATS this season as a favorite of 14 points or more. 10* Top Play TEMPLE OWLS Tuesday evening |
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12-12-16 | South Carolina v. Seton Hall -2.5 | Top | 64-67 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
Bulldog's Best - CBB Game #520 Monday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Seton Hall Pirates (-) vs South Carolina Gamecocks @ 9 ET - The Gamecocks rallied, as teams often do, in their first game without star player, forward Sindarius Thornwell, who is current suspended. South Carolina "rallied the troops" and everyone was anxious to "pick up the slack" and the Gamecocks won 70-54 in their first game without him. That brings South Carolina to a perfect 8-0 on the season. However, that win came against Florida International and it was over a week ago. Not only could there be some "rust" here for the Gamecocks, they also are facing a much tougher foe in what will be just their 2nd game without Thornwell. Seton Hall is a solid 7-2 on the season and the Pirates brought most everybody back from the team that knocked off Villanova in the Big East tourney last spring. The point is that this is a solid Big East team that also, unlike South Carolina, has all hands on deck! Seton Hall will be playing their 4th game so far this month so, unlike the Gamecocks, there will be no rust for the Pirates. Seton Hall wrapped up a Hawaii trip on Wednesday so they've had ample time to come back and adjust their body clocks as they've had the ideal amount of rest leading into this game. Enough time off to be rested but not so much that they're not game-ready! The Pirates are amped up about an opportunity to knock off a ranked, undefeated foe. They'll be the hungrier team tonight in a game where South Carolina will really miss Thornwell. The Gamecocks have a long-term mark of 5-14 ATS when playing with 7 or more days of rest. The Pirates are 13-3 ATS when they are off of a game where they allowed 60 points or less. 10* Top Play SETON HALL PIRATES Monday night |
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12-12-16 | Bucks v. Raptors -7.5 | Top | 100-122 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - NBA Game #504 Monday - 10* Top Play Toronto Raptors (-) vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 7:35 ET - The Raptors have been a "covering machine" this season and, at some point, there is sure to be a correction. However, this is not likely to be that point. Toronto has had two full off days leading into this one and they have the "lowly" Sixers on deck. The Raptors are 4-1 SU and ATS when playing with two days of rest this season. The Bucks situation is quite different as they are off of a loss at Washington that was a hard fought defeat and Milwaukee will now be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. Also, on deck for the Bucks is a home and home set with the Bulls and Chicago is a key division rival of Milwaukee. The Bucks are 25-65 SU in their last 90 games against teams with a winning record and this line has crept down to a 7.5 and, of course, the lower it gets the more likely any SU win will also be an ATS win. Many of the Raptors recent wins have been blowout wins so I am very comfortable stepping in at this level. Toronto's last 8 wins have come by an average margin of victory of 20 points per game! Most of the Bucks losses this season have been close but the rested Raptors have the fresh legs in this one and 8 of the Raptors 9 home wins this season have come by at least 9 points. Lay it! 10* Top Play TORONTO RAPTORS early Monday evening |
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12-12-16 | Hornets v. Pacers OVER 210 | 94-110 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 49 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - NBA Game #501/502 Monday - Rickenbach 8* OVER the total in Indiana Pacers vs Charlotte Hornets @ 7:05 ET - The Pacers have won 5 of their last 8 games even though their defense has not been as sharp. When that starts to happen (winning despite not playing solid D) there is a tendency to subconsciously "let up" on defense. Not surprisingly, the over is 6-2 in Indiana's last 8 games. The Pacers have allowed a field goal percentage of 48.7% or more in 3 of their last 4 games. They're hosting a Charlotte team that has gone 5-1 to the over in their last 6 road games. Indiana has allowed an average of 115 points per game in their last 6 games. The Hornets have allowed an average of 107.3 points per game in their last 6 road games. This total is hovering right around the 210 mark and the over is 9-5 in the Pacers 14 games with a posted total of 210 or higher this season. The Hornets are 3-0 to the over this season in their games with a posted total of 210 points or higher. Charlotte is also 5-1 to the over the past three seasons in road games where they are an underdog of 3 points or less down to a pick'em. Look for the over to improve to 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these teams. 8* OVER the total in Indiana early Monday evening |
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12-12-16 | Auburn v. Boston College +10 | 71-72 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - CBB Game #518 Monday - Rickenbach 8* Boston College Eagles (+) vs Auburn Tigers @ 6:30 ET - The Tigers certainly are the better team but they've been off since December 3rd and, in fact, this will be just the 2nd game for Auburn since they played on November 29th. This is the kind of "lull" in the action that can lead to "rust" and that certainly makes it difficult to win by a double digit margin in a neutral site game against an ACC foe. Boston College is definitely one of the worst teams in the Atlantic Coast Conference but they have an edge here in that they are a 3-point shooting team (39% on the season) and they are playing their 4th game in the past 10 days. The Eagles, unlike the Tigers, are in a good playing "rhythm" and I expect them to hang tough in this game. After this one Boston College has a weak team on deck and that game is almost a full week away so they certainly want to make this one count. The Eagles have lost two straight but both defeats came by 8 points or less. Auburn has won 3 of their last 4 but all 3 wins came by a margin of 7 points or less. In games with a posted total in the 140s the Tigers have gone 9-16 (36%) ATS. The Eagles are a long-term 7-3 (70%) ATS in neutral court games with a posted total between 145 and 149.5 points. 8* BOSTON COLLEGE early Monday evening |
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12-11-16 | UC-Irvine +18 v. St. Mary's | 53-84 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - CBB Game #735 Sunday - Rickenbach 8* UC-Irvine Anteaters (+) @ St Mary's Gaels @ 8 ET - Clearly the Gaels - ranked team from a bigger conference - are the better team in this match-up. However, I am using the same premise I used earlier this week when Colorado upset Xavier and that's "unbeaten letdown". The Musketeers had just suffered their first loss of the season and while many looked for them to bounce back, Xavier was sluggish and ended up losing outright to the Buffaloes. Now, in this case, I certainly don't expect an outright upset, but I do expect this game to be much closer than many expected. Keep in mind, St Mary's just lost by 14 points as a 15 point favorite so the Gaels were way off the mark. That was on Thursday and now this will be just their 2nd game this month so it's not completely surprising that St Mary's is having some issues with being a little "rusty" so far in December. They're taking on a Cal-Irvine team that is off of a game against a weak foe but the blowout win still helps in terms of confidence-building and the Anteaters shot the ball very well in that game. UC-Irvine is actually playing better defense (in terms of FG % allowed) so far this season in comparison with the Gaels. Also, the Anteaters have lost the last two match-ups with St Mary's by a TOTAL of only 13 points and here they are getting more than that in this game. With the low O/U number posted on this game you can see that a low-scoring game is expected here and I just don't see the Gaels getting the margin they need to cover this. Note that St Mary's is already 0-2 ATS a home fave of 12.5 points or more this season. The Anteaters thrive at the betting window in games like this as they are 8-2 ATS in games against teams that are allowing less than 64 points per game. Look for a tight, low-scoring battle to make the big points the way to go in this one. 8* UC-IRVINE ANTEATERS Sunday evening |
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12-11-16 | Celtics +3.5 v. Thunder | 96-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
Half Off Special - NBA Game #703 Sunday - Rickenbach 8* Boston Celtics (+) @ Oklahoma City Thunder @ 7:05 ET - The Thunder are off of a loss and another loss is likely here as the Thunder have been one of the streakiest teams in the NBA this season. Oklahoma City has not had a 1 game winning "streak" this season. Also, the Thunder have had just one 1 game losing "streak" this season. OKC has been a very "patterned" team with 4 winnings streaks of at least 2 games and 2 losing streaks of at least 3 games. The Thunder are off of a loss Thursday versus Houston and, while many may look for the bounce back here, it is likely that another streak is building. Oklahoma City will face an angry Boston team as the Celtics are off of a loss two. Even though they will again be without Isaiah Thomas, Boston has played quite well even though he's been out. The Celtics simply shot the ball very poorly in Thursday's loss to the Raptors and that was the difference in the game. Boston is 9-4 ATS on the road this season and 11-3 ATS as a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points the last 3 seasons combined. Oklahoma City is 2-4 (SU and ATS) in their games against teams with a winning record this season and they are 7-17 ATS the past three seasons combined in their games against Atlantic Division opponents. 8* BOSTON CELTICS plus the points Sunday |
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12-10-16 | Bucks +4.5 v. Wizards | 105-110 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
Contrarian Smash - NBA Game #503 Saturday - Rickenbach 8* Milwaukee Bucks (+) @ Washington Wizards @ 7:05 ET - Even though this is a back to back spot for the Bucks they are still in a "play on" situation here. That's because Milwaukee blew a 20 point half-time lead at home against the Hawks last night. The Bucks players will be fired up after the way they let that game get away from them in the 3rd and 4th quarters and most everyone logged less than 30 minutes in the game so Milwaukee will be a little fresher here than you might expect for a back to back. Also, the Wizards are off of a comeback win Thursday and with the Bucks off of a big blown lead last night, they'll be hungry to get revenge against a Wizards team that has given them trouble in recent meetings. Milwaukee will be looking to avenge 4 straight losses at Washington. The Wizards are only 2-5 ATS against teams with a winning record this season and also only 2-5 ATS in games with a posted total of 210 points or more this season. Even though this is a back to back for Milwaukee it is the first one they've had since mid-November so they should still have "fresh legs" tonight. Also, the Bucks are 5-2 ATS in games with a posted total of 210 points or more this season. 8* MILWAUKEE BUCKS plus the points in early evening action Saturday |
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12-10-16 | Connecticut v. Ohio State -9 | Top | 60-64 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
Top Play Smash - CBB Game #564 Saturday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Ohio State Buckeyes (-) vs Connecticut Huskies @ 6 ET - Big revenge game for OSU as they got embarrassed in a 20-point loss to Connecticut last season. The Huskies simply shot "lights out" in that game and that was the difference as the Buckeyes only made 35.7% of their shots and UConn topped 60% which, of course, is very unusual. The set up for this game Saturday is perfect because there is much more to it than just the revenge angle. The Buckeyes are off of an embarrassing home loss to Florida Atlantic. Ohio State lost that game by a bucket and they were a 20-point favorite in the game! The Buckeyes were clearly looking ahead to this game. As for the Huskies, they are off of a huge upset win over Syracuse. That makes Connecticut ripe for a letdown here and that was the 2nd straight game that the Huskies have shot poorly and have been held under 53 points. Both of these clubs are solid defensively but Ohio State is the much better team on offense with better shooters and better overall point production. In road games with a posted total of 130 to 134.5 points, the Huskies have gone 5-18 ATS. With the low total posted on this game you can see that the odds maker are expecting a bit of a grudge match here and Connecticut simply won't be able to keep up with Ohio State on the score board. The Buckeyes are 7-1 SU (and 46-7 SU long-term) in home games with a posted total in a range of 130 to 134.5 points and OSU is fired up for revenge here. That said, I am forecasting not only the SU win but a big, dominating revenge win by double digits. 10* Top Play OHIO STATE BUCKEYES for a Smash of the spread in this one early Saturday evening |
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12-10-16 | Wichita State v. Oklahoma OVER 140.5 | 76-73 | Win | 100 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - CBB Game #547/548 Saturday - Rickenbach 8* OVER the total in Oklahoma Sooners vs Wichita State Shockers @ 4 ET - Both teams have a lot of new faces this season but production has been strong with each team averaging 80+ points a game so far this season. With this total dipping down from 146 to a 140 there is excellent line value on the over in this one. With the youth on each team their defensive rotations to the ball and switching off of screens, etc. is not always at its best early in the year and there are a lot of scorers for each team that can "fill it up". The Sooners tougher games this season (Wisconsin, Clemson, Northern Iowa) have seen them allow 76 points per game. Wichita State allowed 77 points in their most recent tough match-up as they faced Michigan State. Since that game, on the other end of the floor, the Shockers have shot the ball very well and have averaged 81 points per game. The Sooners also have been on fire and have shot the ball very well in their past three games and this includes nailing a high percentage of threes which has been a strong trend for Oklahoma so far this season. Of course success with the 3-ball is a key to winning overs and the over is 3-0 in the Sooners last three games and 2-0 in Wichita State's last 2 non-home games. The over is 9-4 in Oklahoma's December games the past three seasons combined and the Shockers are on a long-term 5-1 run to the over in games against Big 12 teams. In a non-conference match-up featuring two teams that are not very familiar with each other, look for the offensive skills to be tough to stop here in what should be a shootout! 8* OVER the total in Oklahoma Saturday afternoon |
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12-10-16 | Wisconsin -4.5 v. Marquette | 93-84 | Win | 100 | 5 h 5 m | Show | |
Rivalry Rout - CBB Game #537 Saturday - Rickenbach 8* Wisconsin Badgers (-) @ Marquette Golden Eagles @ 2 PM ET - Revenge game for the Badgers as they lost a tight one to the Golden Eagles last December. Wisconsin attempted 20 more shots than did Marquette in that game but the Eagles simply shot lights out and that was the difference in the victory - albeit just a two point margin. The Badgers are the more experienced team in this year's match-up and they come in shooting the ball very well as Wisconsin has made at least 49% from the field in 4 straight games. Marquette has also shot the ball well but the Badgers have faced the tougher competition. In the Golden Eagles three most recent games against tougher competition they were held to 46% against Georgia and 40% in each of their games against Pittsburgh and Michigan. Note that Wisconsin's recent hot streak shooting has included games against Oklahoma and Syracuse. The Badgers also should hold a big rebounding edge in this match-up. Wisconsin is 5-1 SU (and 4-2 ATS) as a favorite this season. The Golden Eagles are on a 13-27 ATS run in home games and are an ugly 5-11 ATS when off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more. 8* WISCONSIN BADGERS minus the short number Saturday |
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12-09-16 | Georgia Southern v. Minnesota OVER 142 | Top | 49-86 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
Big Ten Network Smash - Rickenbach CBB Game #719/720 Friday - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Georgia Southern Eagles @ 9 ET - The Golden Gophers have some impressive defensive numbers so far this season but those were impacted by a grudge matches with Vanderbilt and Southern Illinois and then playing weak foe (non-lined game) when they faced Mount St Mary's. In the Golden Gophers other 6 games they have allowed an average of 73.5 points per game. Georgia Southern is a SunBelt Conference team that returned all starters and can put up big points. The weakness for the Eagles is they can't stop a talented team like the 8-1 Golden Gophers from also putting up big points. Minnesota has averaged 75.7 points per game this season. Georgia Southern has averaged 78.6 points per game this season and, like most SunBelt teams, they are not afraid to push the pace and play up-tempo. As a road dog of 12.5 points or more, the Eagles have gone 5-0 to the over the past three seasons. In all road games during that stretch Georgia Southern was a solid 18-7 to the over. In non-conference action the Eagles have gone 6-1 to the over in recent seasons and also 8-2 to the over when off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. The Golden Gophers have gone 6-1 to the over the past three seasons when they are a home favorite of 12.5 points or more. With the drop on this total (opened up at 146 yesterday), there is even more line value with the over in this match-up. Both teams are comfortable to push the pace in this match-up and the Eagles returned all their offensive firepower from last season. 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Friday |
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12-09-16 | Magic +7 v. Hornets | Top | 88-109 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
Southeast Divisional Game of the Month - NBA Game #701 Friday - 10* Top Play Orlando Magic (+) @ Charlotte Hornets @ 7:05 ET - The Magic are off of one of the worst performances as they lost by 30 points at Boston. That is the kind of performance that absolutely fires up a team for their next game and, keep in mind, Orlando had been playing very competitive basketball prior to the beatdown at the hands of the Celtics. The Magic had won and covered 4 of their 5 prior games. Also, looking further back, Orlando had gone 6-5 in their 11 prior games and the average margin of defeat in the 5 losses was just 4.2 points. The fact is that Orlando had been in every game their past 11 and I fully expect them to be in this one too after the embarrassing blowout loss at Boston. Note that Orlando is a perfect 3-0 ATS this season in road games with a posted total between 200 and 204.5 points. Also, the Magic failed to cover in their last visit to Charlotte but, prior to that, Orlando had covered each of their prior visits. This has been a road-dominated series at the betting window with the road team getting the cash 6 of the last 8 games. The Hornets are off of a double digit win but they pulled away late for the 10 point victory and the final score certainly is deceiving in terms of how the game truly played out. Charlotte is now off of back to back wins and covers but previously had covered only 2 of their 9 prior games. The Hornets only sank 34% of their shots against Detroit Wednesday. As a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points, Charlotte has gone just 5-8 ATS and they've also covered just 3 of 8 games against teams with a losing record this season. 10* Top Play ORLANDO MAGIC plus the points Friday |
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12-08-16 | Spurs v. Bulls +4.5 | Top | 91-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
RARE TNT Top - NBA Game #512 Thursday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Chicago Bulls (+) vs San Antonio Spurs @ 9:35 ET - The Spurs still get a ton of respect from the odds makers and the betting markets and are certainly still one of the top teams in the NBA. However, this team is clearly not the same team since Tim Duncan retired and Manu Ginoboli and Tony Parker arent' getting any younger. Also, coach Gregg Popovich has lost a little bit of his "fire" since Duncan retired and the result is that the Spurs just aren't dominating the way they use to. In fact their having to scratch and claw their way to many of their wins and now they're in the wrong place at the wrong time. The home team has swept the season series between the Bulls and Spurs each of the last two years and Chicago comes into this game fired up off of 3 straight SU and ATS losses. This was preceded by an 8-2 ATS run for the Bulls. For the Spurs, they are off of a rare big win (by 14 at Minnesota) Tuesday as they had previously gone just 3-8 ATS in their 11 prior games. With San Antonio off of a big double digit win and Chicago off of three straight losses, look for the Bulls to be the hungrier team here. Chicago has gone 9-4 SU (and 10-3 ATS) the last 3 seasons when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3 games or more. 10* Top Play CHICAGO BULLS plus the points Thursday night |
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12-08-16 | Iowa State v. Iowa +5.5 | 64-78 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
Rivalry Rout - CBB Game #520 Thursday - Rickenbach 8* Iowa Hawkeyes (+) vs Iowa State Cyclones @ 8 ET - How can Iowa possibly make up for last season when they blew a 20 point lead at Iowa State? As the saying goes, turnabout is fair play! The Hawkeyes are again the unranked team, but they are now at home, and battling their ranked in-state rival. Iowa State comes into this game with the better record and certainly (on paper) would seem to be the play in this game. However, as the Cyclones well know, the game isn't played "on paper" and just like they rallied for an improbable win over the Hawkeyes last season, don't be surprised if underdog Iowa is the one getting the last laugh this season. That crazy win (came with 9 seconds left) last season was the 3rd straight win for the Cyclones in this series. Iowa State has never won 4 straight in the series. Also, although the Cyclones have certainly been the better team on defense so far this season, the Hawkeyes can put up big points (just like Iowa State does) and you can bet that Iowa is going to bring their most intense defensive effort so far this season in tonight's huge rivalry game. Certainly the Hawkeyes are very well coached under veteran Fran McCaffery. Iowa State has gone 3-7 ATS in road games with a posted total of 155 to 159.5 points. The Cyclones are also 1-4 ATS against teams with a losing record and, surprisingly, are also a long-term 6-13 ATS when they face a poor defensive team (allowing an average of 77 points or more per game). Iowa is 12-6 ATS as a home dog of 3.5 to 6 points and also is 31-8 SU in home games the last 2+ seasons. Revenge time. 8* IOWA HAWKEYES plus the points Thursday |
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12-08-16 | Nuggets +5.5 v. Wizards | 85-92 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 29 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - NBA Game #501 Thursday - Rickenbach 8* Denver Nuggets (+) @ Washington Wizards @ 7:05 ET - The Nuggets overlooked the Nets last night and didn't start "playing" until it was too late. Denver did come all the way back from a huge deficit and had the ball with a chance to tie it late but they turned it over and blew that opportunity. Overall, they know they let a game get away last night that they had no business losing. Teams respond strong after games like that and that means the Wizards are going to get Denver's best effort tonight because the Nuggets know they can't afford another slow start. Look for Denver to jump on the Wizards from the opening tip. The Nuggets are still 8-3 ATS on the road this season and 21-11 ATS the last 3 seasons combined when they are on the road and the posted total on the game is 210 points or more. The Wizards are 1-5 ATS this season in games with a posted total of 210 points or more. Also, Washington is off of a divisional game (home loss to Orlando) and they are 1-4 SU and ATS when off of a divisional game this season. The fact is that a Northwest Division foe is not going to get the same attention an Atlantic Division foe will get from the Wizards and, in fact, Washington is on a 7-14 ATS run in games against teams from the Northwest Division the past three seasons combined. 8* DENVER NUGGETS |
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12-07-16 | Creighton -4 v. Nebraska | 77-62 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
Rivalry Rout - CBB Game #745 Wednesday - Rickenbach 8* Creighton Blue Jays (-) @ Nebraska Cornhuskers @ 9 ET - The Blue Jays are undefeated so far this season and they undoubtedly will get tripped up soon but I don't see that happening tonight and will take advantage of the downward line move that has occurred on this one. Creighton has held the upper hand in this series with Nebraska for many years. Currently the run for the Blue Jays is 15-5 ATS the last 20. Certainly the Cornhuskers would love nothing more than to be the ones to put the first blemish on Creighton's unbeaten season record thusfar. However, this Huskers team does not even look as strong as others that the Blue Jays have dominated in recent meetings. The Cornhuskers lost their two best players from last season, Andrew White and Shavon Shields, and are truly a young team in terms of scholarship players. The way Creighton has been shooting the ball this season, and the fact they're use to playing at Nebraska every other season, means another night of "raining threes" is quite likely as the Blue Jays are knocking down an average of 10 three pointers a game so far this season! Creighton's 3-point shooting has cooled off of late but they're still on fire inside the arc and, amazingly, have made at least 50% of their shots from the field in all 8 of their games this season. For comparison sake note that the Huskers have been held under 42.5% from the field in 4 straight games! The Cornhuskers are also 14-39 SU and 17-33 ATS the past three seasons combined in their games against teams with a winning record. Creighton is off of a non-covering win against Akron but, with the small number on this game, and with a 15-5 SU mark in this series with Nebraska too, I look for the Blue Jays to get right back into the ATS win column here. 8* CREIGHTON BLUE JAYS minus the short number Wednesday night |
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12-07-16 | Xavier v. Colorado +3 | 66-68 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - CBB Game #748 Wednesday - Rickenbach 8* Colorado Buffaloes (+) vs Xavier Musketeers @ 9 ET - After opening up right around a pick'em this line has shot all the way up to -3 on Xavier. I will take the contrarian role in this one as I expect Xavier to suffer from "unbeaten letdown" in this one. Before their loss (by 15 points at Baylor) Saturday, the Musketeers were off to a 7-0 start and flying high. However, other than against Northern Iowa (whom they played twice and whom is fine playing methodical basketball) and Buffalo (who was over-matched), the Musketeers defense truly has not been all that impressive this season. In 4 of the 5 "other games" not played against the Panthers or Bulls, the Musketeers allowed at least 76 points. Also, in all 5 of those games, Xavier did allow at least 41.5% shooting from the field. For comparison sake, note that the Buffaloes have allowed just 37.6% from the field on the season. Coach Tad Boyle is doing a fantastic job with the recruiting and player development he has done at Colorado and, keep in mind, they returned most everyone from last year's NCAA Tourney team. As for Xavier, they certainly are still hurting some without the services of senior guard Myles Davis. Certainly the Musketeers want to bounce back off the loss they just suffered but that is tough to do on the road and facing a quality Pac-12 team. Colorado is looking for that "marquee" early season win and this is easily their biggest home game prior to conference play getting underway. In other words, the Buffaloes are fully focused on the task at hand here and I look for the Musketeers to drop to 2-5 ATS the L7 times they've been a road favorite of 3 points or less. The Buffaloes have an 18-7 ATS mark as a home dog of 3 points or less and all 18 wins were outright wins! 8* COLORADO BUFFALOES plus the small number Wednesday night |
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12-07-16 | Nuggets -4.5 v. Nets | Top | 111-116 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
Top Play Annihilation - NBA Game #705 Wednesday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (-) @ Brooklyn Nets @ 7:35 ET - The Nets have lost 10 of their last 11 games. The key thing about Brooklyn is they often don't just lose, they get annihilated. 7 of the Nets 10 losses have come by a margin of at least 17 points which is actually quite incredible when you think about it. They're just not even in a lot of their games. All 10 of the losses during this 1-10 stretch have come by at least 5 points which is what makes Denver even a more attractive play here since they are a short favorite of less than 5 points at the time of this posting. The Nuggets have done well as travelers for their backers as Denver is 8-2 ATS away from home this season! Also, the Nuggets have fared particularly well in games that are projected to be high-scoring as they are 4-0 ATS this season in road games with a posted total of 210 or more. This total is well above that as the Nets are one of the worst defensive clubs in the league. Denver is also a perfect 4-0 ATS against Atlantic Division opponents this season. The Nuggets results of late don't look that great but keep in mind that was against some tough opponents. They have taken care of business against weaker foes like recent road games at Philadelphia and Phoenix. The last key here to this pick is that the Nets have swept the home and home season series from the Nuggets each of the past two seasons and last year's two Brooklyn wins each came by only a single point. Teams don't forget tight losses like that and that ensures proper focus from the road fave here and a big revenge win can be expected. 10* Top Play DENVER NUGGETS minus the short number Wednesday evening |
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12-07-16 | Pistons +5.5 v. Hornets | 77-87 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - NBA Game #701 Wednesday - Rickenbach 8* Detroit Pistons (+) @ Charlotte Hornets @ 7:05 ET - The Pistons are off of a big divisional win over Chicago yesterday so many will be looking to fade them here. However, Detroit is actually 26-10 ATS the past 3 seasons when they are off of a divisional game so it truly has not slowed them down. Also, the Pistons are 4-1 SU and ATS against Southeast Division opponents this season and Detroit has played a tougher schedule than Charlotte so far this season. The Pistons come into this game on a 6-2 run (both SU and ATS) and they're facing a Hornets team that is off of a win and cover at Dallas but that had previously gone just 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS their last 9 games. Clearly this match-up is a case of two teams heading in opposite directions and Charlotte has not fared well in this role either. As a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points, the Hornets are on an 8-15 ATS run including 0-4 ATS this season! Grab the line value here with the road dog. 8* DETROIT PISTONS plus the points early Wednesday evening |
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12-06-16 | 76ers +8 v. Grizzlies | 91-96 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - NBA Game #507 Tuesday - Rickenbach 8* Philadelphia 76'ers (+) @ Memphis Grizzlies @ 8:05 ET - Many will look at the Grizzlies here because of the Sixers perennial losing, the 76'ers current losing streak, and the fact that Joel Embiid will likely not play tonight after playing last night in Philadelphia. That is why this is a contrarian play but the fact is that Philly is in a better "position" here than the Grizzlies are and plus their getting a good number of points as well so there is great underdog value. Memphis got a 110-108 win at New Orleans but it certainly did not come without a price. The Grizzlies had to go to double-overtime to get it and they were already short-handed. That said, a Memphis team that only dressed 10 players last night and that had 5 players log 40 minutes or more in last night's game is not in a good spot here. The Grizzlies will be tired and also could get caught being complacent here too. After all, they're at home now and hosting a 4-17 Sixers team so what's there to worry about? Of course that is where the trouble starts and I would not be surprised to see the 76'ers spring the upset here but certainly the value here is in grabbing the big points. Philadelphia is 40-25 ATS in non-conference games the past three seasons and the 76'ers are 7-4 ATS this season when playing with home loss revenge. Memphis is 4-7 ATS the past three seasons as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points and the Grizzlies are 0-3 ATS against Atlantic Division opponents this season. Add it all up and you have a 57-33 (63%) ATS spot in favor of the road dog in this one. 8* PHILADELPHIA 76'ers Tuesday |
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12-06-16 | Knicks v. Heat OVER 204 | Top | 114-103 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
Total of the Month - NBA Game #505/506 Tuesday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play OVER the total in Miami Heat vs New York Knicks @ 7:35 ET - This series has been an "under" series historically. That said, why the big total posted on this game? Exactly! The big total is absolutely justified. Knicks games are averaging 211 points this season and they should dictate the tempo in this game. They are the healthier team, they come into this match-up having won 8 of their last 11, but they are weak when it comes to interior defense. That means a big game in the paint from Miami's Hassan Whiteside can absolutely be expected here. The over is "only" 4-2 in the Knicks last 6 road games but the two unders in that stretch averaged 206 points a game. In other words, New York simply doesn't get involved in low-scoring games. This is especially true on the road where they try to push the pace and dictate the tempo so as to not fall into complacency (as can sometimes happen at home). The Heat are off of a loss that stayed under the total but 3 of their prior 4 games went over the total and Miami averaged 107 points per game but allowed 107.5 points per game during that 4-game stretch. Look for more of the same here in game that should cruise over the total by double digits. The over is 3-1 this season in New York games against Southeast Division opponents. Also, the past 3 seasons combined, the over is 5-2 when the Knicks enter a game on a winning streak of 3 games or more. 10* OVER the total in Miami Tuesday |
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12-06-16 | East Carolina +20.5 v. Virginia | 53-76 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - CBB Game #529 Tuesday - 8* East Carolina Pirates (+) @ Virginia Cavaliers @ 7 ET - I am well aware of the fact that the 7-2 Pirates have played an easy schedule so far this season and that the 7-1 Cavaliers are off of their first loss of the season and that it was also a rare home loss for Virginia. However, one can not ignore the fact that East Carolina knew they had to improve their defense coming into the season and they have done just that. The Pirates are allowing only 59.2 points per game and have held opponents to 34.7% from the field which, coincidentally, is the exact same percentage as the vaunted Cavaliers defense has allowed. Now, once again, I am certainly mindful of the fact that East Carolina has not played the level of competition that the Cavs have. Also, I know that the Pirates certainly are not nearly the level of team that Virginia is. However, East Carolina is playing solid defense, they are one of the nation's leading teams in rebounding, and they are getting 20+ points here as a big dog that could very well play out as an ugly, low-scoring grudge match (note the low O/U posted on this game). The Cavaliers offense has been held to 63 points or less in 3 straight games and the Pirates can absolutely hang around in this one. East Carolina has gone 9-2 ATS as a road dog of 18.5 to 24 points. Virginia has gone 4-7 ATS as a home favorite of 18.5 to 24 points. This number is simply too big and it's offering great line value on a scrappy underdog that is hustling this season (note the numbers on defense and on the boards). 8* EAST CAROLINA plus the big points Tuesday |
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12-06-16 | Old Dominion +10.5 v. Rhode Island | Top | 39-51 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
Contrarian Top Play - CBB Game #527 Tuesday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Old Dominion Monarchs (+) @ Rhode Island Rams @ 7 ET - Old Dominion is known for playing solid defense and crashing the boards. Those two variables tend to make the Monarchs a dangerous dog and, in this case, Old Dominion is the benefactor of too many points. The Rams are off of a loss at Providence Saturday and that is inflating this line as Rhode Island is in a bounce back spot here. The problem with the "bounce back" angle on the Rams here is the fact that the Friars are a huge rival of theirs and to again lose (and it was a tight loss) to their in-state rival is a bitter pill to swallow. Rhode Island will be doing good just to muster enough energy just to win this game, let alone cover it, after they truly "gave it their all" Saturday at Providence. Keep in mind the Rams are on a 1-5 ATS run as they've only gone 3-3 SU in their last 6 games and, by the way, Rhode Island did not have a single win by more than 9 points in this stretch and the average margin of those 6 games was just 6 points. Old Dominion is allowing only 58.6 points per game this season and their two losses were to LSU and Louisville. Both defeats came by only 6 points and they were a huge dog against the Cardinals. The Monarchs won't be intimidated here - just like they weren't against Louisville) and Rhode Island is not only off of the tough loss to the Friars, they also have a solid 7-1 Houston team on deck. This is a definite flat spot in the schedule for the Rams. Yes, I know Old Dominion beat Rhode Island last year so there is a revenge factor here for the Rams but, trust me, Saturday's game meant a ton to Rhode Island and they are a deflated team which makes it difficult to cover a big spread. Even if the Rams win here it will likely be a tight win. Look for Rhode Island to drop to 4-10 ATS in Tuesday games while the Monarchs improve to a perfect 5-0 ATS as an underdog. 10* Top Play OLD DOMINION MONARCHS plus the big points Tuesday. |
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12-05-16 | Grizzlies v. Pelicans -4 | 110-108 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
Situational Slaughter - NBA Game #710 Monday - Rickenbach 8* New Orleans Pelicans (-) vs Memphis Grizzlies @ 8:05 ET - It looks funny to see a 13-8 Grizzlies team open up as a 6.5 point dog against a 7-14 Pelicans team, doesn't it? Of course the whole world jumped all over Memphis in this match-up and the line quickly dropped to as low as a 3.5 in some spot. I am 'fading the masses' as usual in this one as the line has settled in right around a -4 on New Orleans and I see great line value for the Pelicans in this situation. The Grizzlies are off of a very late win (and 1/2 point cover) that they rallied to get against the Lakers Saturday night. Memphis is still hurting without the services of Mike Conley at point guard. Now the Grizzlies face an angry Pelicans team that is off of back to back losses. The consecutive defeats included one at home where New Orleans had won 5 straight. Speaking of 5 straight, the Grizzlies won all 4 match-ups with the Pelicans last season and also won the first match-up this season. In other words, payback is on the minds of New Orleans in this one as they also look to start their next big home winning streak. The Pelicans are 10-5 ATS when playing with revenge this season and the Grizzlies defense has regressed recently as they have allowed 105 points per game in their last 5 games. New Orleans did lose at Oklahoma City yesterday but they simply had an "off" shooting night at 36.7% from the field. When the Pelicans are off of a shooting performance under 40% this season (4 times) they have averaged 110.5 points per game in their next game. That' significant here because the Grizzlies, sans Conley, are unlikely to be able to score enough to keep up in this one. Lay the short number with the Pelicans. 8* NEW ORLEANS PELICANS Monday evening |
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12-05-16 | CS-Northridge v. St. John's OVER 166 | 70-76 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 2 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - CBB Game #723/724 Monday - Rickenbach 8* OVER the total in St John's Red Storm vs Cal State Northridge Matadors @ 6:30 ET - St John's is off of a win at Tulane Friday and they put up 95 points in the game and shot lights out. Now they are at home as a double digit favorite and matched up against a team they know they should score 100 against. Cal State Northridge comes into this game off of a big win as well. The Matadors are known for playing an up-tempo game and they put up 79 points in Saturday's win versus Idaho State. Cal State Northridge has already put up at least 78 points in 6 of their 8 games this season. The Red Storm are a 13 point favorite in this game at the time of the write-up. The point is that you're looking at "at least" a 91-78 game based on those numbers and that is why the odds makers had this correct when they opened up the total at 169. The key to the value now is not only the drop to the 166 but the fact that both teams coming into this game confident off of a win, shooting the ball very well, and there is a tendency to overlook defense in a spot like this. This game is all about a "run and gun" affair and both teams are also hitting 40% of their three pointers so far this season. The over is a perfect 4-0 in Matadors games where they are an underdog this season. The over is a perfect 2-0 in Red Storm games against teams with a losing record so far this season. Cal State Northridge is allowing an average of 90.5 points per game this season but they've gotten some big contributions from a couple of key newcomers and the Matadors, even though they can't stop anybody on defense, will continue to pile up points on the scoreboard. I know this total is a big one, but it should soar past the number. 8* OVER the total in St John's early Monday evening |
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12-04-16 | Bowling Green v. Cincinnati OVER 129.5 | Top | 56-85 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
Top Play - CBB Game #517/518 Sunday - Rickenbach 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Bearcats vs Bowling Green Falcons @ 8 ET - Both these teams have been "under" teams this season but that is helping to give us some solid line value on the over in this match-up. That's because of the situational edges here that will play a key factor in this one. The Bearcats are known for their solid defense but it's easy for them to overlook a weak MAC team in this particular spot because Cincinnati is off of a hard-fought low-scoring win over Iowa State and they have a big game with Butler on deck. That said, it will be hard for the Cats to get excited about defensive intensity in this one. As for the Falcons, they do like to play at a fast tempo and their offense got a boost of confidence with averaging 88 points per game in their last 2 games. Those were non-lined contests but facing weaker foes helped Bowling Green get their offense going and, as for the other end of the floor, the Falcons have allowed an average of 76 points per game in their 5 lined games. Cincinnati has already eclipsed the 83 point mark twice this season against weaker competition and the Bearcats did put up 83 when they faced the Falcons last year. Based on spread on this game and the key factors relating to the Cats being willing to just run and gun with the Falcons quite a bit in this one, this should play out as an 83 to 63 type game which puts it well over the total. Bowling Green is a fantastic 10-2 to the over when they are off of a game where they allowed 60 points or less. 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati |
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12-04-16 | Kings v. Knicks OVER 208.5 | 98-106 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
NBA Smash Special - NBA Game #505/506 Sunday - Rickenbach 8* OVER the total in New York Knicks vs Sacramento Kings @ 7:35 ET - This line has gone from a 211.5 to a 208.5 and this has helped further add to the value with the over in this set-up. I expect plenty of offense in this one as it is a non-conference match-up and both teams go back into conference action after this game. In other words, there is no reason to expect a lot of defensive intensity in this one and I like the pace that both teams have been playing at lately. The Kings simply haven't shot the ball all that well at times but they have averaged 88 field goal attempts per game in their last 5 games. The Knicks have averaged 93 field goal attempts per game in their last 6 games. Don't be surprised if this turns into a "run and gun" affair and, keep in mind, the Knicks are averaging 108 points per game in their last 9 games but they're allowing 107 points per game on the season! New York is off of an upset win as a underdog (they closed as a 2.5 point dog versus Minny) and the over is 3-1 this season when the Knicks are off of an upset win. More of the same here. 8* OVER the total in New York |
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12-03-16 | Bulls -3 v. Mavs | Top | 82-107 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
Top Play Annihilation - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Game #711 Saturday - 10* Top Play Chicago Bulls (-) @ Dallas Mavericks @ 8:35 ET - This line went all the way from an opener of -7 down to as low as a -3 and this is offering tremendous line value on the Bulls. Yes I know Chicago is off of a big win at Cleveland and this is a back to back spot. However, they did lose BOTH games with the Mavericks last season so a little payback is on order tonight. Even though Wade is out for the Bulls, the Mavs are still without Nowitzki. Also, we're still talking about a Dallas team that is only 3-15 on the season and only 1 of their 18 games has been decided by less than 5 points! In other words, the odds are certainly in our favor that the Bulls not only win this game but also win it by 5 points or more. Chicago is currently on a red hot 8-2 ATS run and they've covered 2 of 3 this season when off of an upset win as an underdog while Dallas is 2-5 ATS when off of a loss by double digits. In other words, a Mavericks bounce back here is unlikely and that is why I expect the Bulls to get their revenge even though they are off of the big win over the Cavs. 10* Top Play CHICAGO BULLS |
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12-03-16 | Lakers +2.5 v. Grizzlies | 100-103 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Game #709 Saturday - 8* Los Angeles Lakers (+) @ Memphis Grizzlies @ 8:05 ET - The Lakers got blasted 113-80 at Toronto last night. The Grizzlies are off of a hard-fought come from behind win over the Magic Thursday. One could argue that the Lakers will have more "left in the tank" than Memphis even though it is LA that is in a back to back spot. Los Angeles certainly is highly motivated after last night's embarrassing result and they've gone 4-2 straight-up this season when off of a loss by 10 points or more. The Lakers have only failed to cover once in those six games! The Grizzlies have been hurt by injuries (especially the loss of point guard Mike Conley) and they have a divisional opponent (New Orleans) on deck. This line was a pick'em and then moved all the way up as high as a -3 on the Grizz. This line looked funny, didn't it? Don't be fooled. Fade the move and grab the hungry underdog that is ready to respond off of last night's embarrassment where, keep in mind, only two players logged more than 25 minutes and no one logged more than 35 minutes. 8* LOS ANGELES LAKERS |
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12-03-16 | Akron +14.5 v. Creighton | Top | 70-82 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
Top Ten Top Play - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Game #787 Saturday - 10* Top Play Akron Zips (+) @ Creighton Blue Jays @ 8 ET - The Blue Jays are off to such a fantastic start (7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS, 46.5% 3-pointers) that the odds makers have had to over-adjust. The result is fantastic line value in this spot. Akron certainly has played a weaker schedule than has Creighton. However, the Zips were one of the top teams in the MAC last season and they will be again this season. We are getting extra line value here because, even though Akron is 6-1 SU on the season they are only 1-3 ATS. The fact is that the Zips match up very well with the Blue Jays and that means this game is likely to play out much closer than many are expecting. Akron, like Creighton, loves the 3-ball. The Zips, like the Blue Jays have great size in the paint. Also, both teams have deep rotations. The result will be a very evenly matched contest and the kicker is that Creighton has a big game with in-state rival Nebraska on deck while Akron has an unexciting match-up with Coppin State up next. The result will be the Zips definitely "leaving it all on the floor" tonight and they're excited about this opportunity against a Top Ten and I expect them to make the most of it. Creighton snuck out a cover over Buffalo Tuesday but they face a much tougher MAC team in this match-up and the Blue Jays are simply over-priced here. 10* Top Play AKRON ZIPS |
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12-03-16 | Rhode Island -2 v. Providence | 60-63 | Loss | -119 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
Rivalry Rout - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CBB Game #765 Saturday - 8* Rhode Island Rams (-) @ Providence Friars @ 4:30 ET - Big revenge game for Rhode Island. This is a huge rivalry but Providence has certainly held the upper hand in recent meetings. That is a key as to why the Rams are the play here. Not only are they highly motivated, they also are the deeper team with more experience and depth in comparison with the Friars. Look for star guard E.C. Matthews to have a big game as he has been "streaky" with his shooting so far this season as he is still recovering from a torn ACL early last season. Certainly they Rams have been holding him back a bit to save him for the upcoming conference schedule but they will take the reins off of him for this huge rivalry game and I expect a strong effort from him. Certainly the Rams have plenty of other scoring options as they returned most of their key contributors from last season and already have 5 guys averaging double digits (or close to it) this season. By contrast the Friars rely heavily on Rodney Bullock (22 ppg) and you can bet he will be the focus of the RI defense. As a team Providence is shooting 43.2% from the field while the Rams are at 49.3% from the field. The Rams are 12-6 ATS in games with a posted total in the 120s while the Friars are 8-19 ATS in games where they are a home dog of 3 points or less. 8* RHODE ISLAND RAMS |
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12-02-16 | Wolves v. Knicks -2 | 114-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
Contrarian Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #508 Friday - 8* New York Knicks (-) vs Minnesota Timberwolves @ 7:35 ET - The very first lines that popped up on this game when released yesterday showed the Knicks at -4.5 and they've quickly come down from there and are now all the way down to a -2 as of early Friday morning. I understand the move because this is a chance for "right back revenge" for the Timberwolves as they just lost to the Knicks in Minnesota on Wednesday. However, just because I understand the move doesn't mean that I agree with it. The fact is that the Knicks are 7-3 SU and ATS in home games so far this season while the T-wolves are 2-7 SU and ATS in road games so far this season. Couple that with the fact that the Knicks have "only" another Western Conference foe on deck and you have the makings of some solid small home fave line value with New York in this game. Keep in mind the Knicks strength of schedule has been tougher than Minnesota's has so far this season and also New York beat the Timberwolves Wednesday despite a huge disparity in free throws as the T-wolves got all the calls on their home floor. New York has now won 3 straight match-ups with Minny and the Timberwolves are 2-6 ATS an underdog this season while the Knicks are 5-1 ATS as a favorite. The "revenge angle" on the T-wolves has ended up giving us line value on the Knicks and, keep in mind, even with playing with revenge Minnesota has a SU record of 36-91 the past 3 seasons and this line is so small that any NY win should also end up being a cover. 8* NEW YORK KNICKS Friday evening |
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12-02-16 | Duquesne +15 v. Pittsburgh | 64-55 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #519 Friday - 8* Duquesne Dukes (+) vs Pittsburgh Panthers @ PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh @ 7 ET - This is a city rivalry game and, although the Panthers have certainly dominated the series, that doesn't make it any less important for the Dukes players. Rest assure, Duquesne wants this game badly. The chance to beat their "big brother" is always a huge game for the Dukes and though I feel they will fall short of the outright win here, I do expect Duquesne to keep this one to a margin of single digits. The Dukes are catching the Panthers at an ideal time as Pitt can't help but to be "still celebrating" their big upset win over Maryland in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. Now the Panthers come into this game as a large favorite and the early line move has seen this one jump from 13.5 to 15 points. I like the extra value that is giving us with the big dog here. Duquesne is seeing Nebraska-transfer Tarin Smith run the floor and handle point-guard duties. Also, even though they lost 4 starters from last season's team, the Dukes have seen other guys step up this season including a number of newcomers. Granted, Duquesne is still certainly not on the level that Pitt us but they are going to bring their "game of the year" effort to this one tonight and that should be more than enough for he cover. Keep in mind, Pitt has a new head coach in Kevin Stallings and, though the Panthers are a solid 6-1 on the season, they haven't shown a penchant for absolutely murdering over-matched foes. The Panthers only beat Yale by 5 and Eastern Michigan by 3. Also, they certainly took their foot off of the gas against a clearly out-classed Gardner Webb team which, by the way, that 19 point win was the only win that Pitt has by more than 14 points this season. Off the huge win over the Terrapins, look for Pittsburgh to fall a little flat here. The Panthers are on a 13-28 ATS run as a favorite, 2-12 ATS when off of a game where they allowed 60 points or less, and on a 1-8 ATS run in their games against teams with a losing record. Duquesne is off of an embarrassing loss to UMBC but they are 13-8 ATS when off of a game where they allowed 80 points or more and the Dukes only loss by a double digit margin this season was against Kentucky and, of course, the Dukes were expected to get hammered in that game. This rivalry game plays out tighter than expected tonight. 8* DUQUESNE DUKES early Friday evening |
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12-01-16 | Magic v. Grizzlies +1.5 | 94-95 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #708 Thursday - 8* Memphis Grizzlies (+) vs Orlando Magic @ 8:05 ET - This is a contrarian play as many will likely be looking to fade Memphis since they are in a back to back spot and were in Canada last night battling with the Raptors in Toronto. Also, the Grizzlies are very short-handed right now due to injuries including, most important, point guard Mike Conley. However, no one played excessive minutes for Memphis last night and I liked what I saw from this hungry team in a tough environment. Now, back home and facing a much weaker foe, the Grizzlies should get back into the win column tonight. Memphis catches Orlando off of a big upset win at San Antonio Tuesday. The Spurs had a rare off-night shooting as they knocked down only 36.8% from the field. By the way, that is another key edge here because the Magic are off of an unusual result defensively while the Grizzlies were victims of a night where Toronto knocked down 14 of 28 three-pointers and hit a ridiculous 55.1% from the field. Trust me that was not all on the defense and the fact is that the Grizzlies are a solid club defensively and the unusual results from each of these teams most recent game is what is leading to line value here with Orlando as a road favorite. Note that the Magic have covered only 1 of 8 games when favored this season! The Grizzlies are a fantastic 4-0 (both SU and ATS) when playing the 2nd game of a back to back. 8* MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES Thursday Night |
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12-01-16 | Monmouth -9 v. Quinnipiac | 91-72 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
MAAC Attack - Rickenbach CBB Game #731 Thursday - 8* Monmouth Hawks (-) @ Quinnipiac Bobcats @ 7 ET - Perfect set-up here. Monmouth was at the top of the MAAC last season and should end up there again this season as they returned 4 starters and the majority of their key reserves from last season's team that reached the 2nd round of the NIT Tourney after just missing out on the Big Dance. As for Quinnipiac, they are known more for their ice hockey than basketball and, the Bobcats finished near the bottom of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference last season and and are likely to end up in a similar position this season. The key to the set-up here is that, even though the Hawks are off of a win, they had their worst defensive performance so far this season and they'll be ready to respond tonight with conference action getting underway. The Hawks are allowing only 67.7 points per game (and just 39.7% shooting from the field) and this is in stark contrast with a Bobcats team that is off of a shocking upset win over Indiana State. Don't put too much into that win over the Sycamores. Indiana State was in a flat spot and ended up getting beat by the hungrier team. The fact is that it was the first win of the season for a Quinnipiac team that doesn't play good defense. The Bobcats have allowed 85.8 points per game (and 50.2% shooting from the field). The Hawks won both match-ups with the Bobcats last season by at least 14 points in each game and we're getting line value here because of Quinnipiac's upset win which actually makes them "ripe for the picking" here as the better team, the Hawks, are fully capable of again dominating this match-up and Monmouth certainly is going to be hungry for the conference opener after a poor defensive effort. Hawks coach King Rice will have his team ready to go here. The Hawks are on a 22-11 ATS run in road games. The Bobcats are 10-20 ATS when off of a game where they scored 80 points or more. 8* MONMOUTH Thursday evening |
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11-30-16 | UC-Irvine +3.5 v. Santa Clara | Top | 58-55 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
Top Play Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #577 Wednesday - 10* Top Play Cal-Irvine Anteaters (+) @ Santa Clara Broncos @ 10 ET - This line has moved from as low as a 1 on Santa Clara all the way up to where even a few postings at 4 were popping up. In any event, this line move has opened up some great line value on UC-Irvine. The Anteaters are looking to move to 4-0 in this series and the Broncos are over-valued. Even though both teams are 3-4 on the season, Cal-Irvine has played the tougher overall schedule. Also, even though Anteaters are without star guard Luke Nelson, others have certainly picked up the slack in his absence. The injury to KJ Feagin of the Broncos might be the bigger story here anyway. He was a key for the Broncos coming into the season as the top point guard and off of a surprisingly strong freshman campaign. Though new coach Herb Sendek has an impressive resume and will do a great job at Santa Clara, it always takes time to get the right pieces in place and, right now, he's just trying to manage some improvement on a team that lost 20 games last season. UC-Irvine went 28-10 last season and, though they lost a lot of key contributors from last season's team, they did return a number of key reserves plus they are getting a boost with the newcomers that coach Russell Turner brought in. The big edge the Anteaters have here is in the paint and the Broncos are known for their struggles with interior defense and rebounding in recent years. That weakness will again be a glaring one in tonight's game as I expect Santa Clara to drop their 4th straight in this series. The Anteaters are 19-8 ATS in road games with a posted total in a range of 120 to 129.5 points. The Broncos are 1-4 ATS (and SU!) as a home fave of 3 points or less and that is where this line has settled out. 10* Top Play CAL-IRVINE |
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11-30-16 | Spurs v. Mavs +9 | 94-87 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA Game #514 Wednesday - 8* Dallas Mavericks (+) vs San Antonio Spurs @ 8:35 ET - The Spurs just aren't the same team they use to be. Yes, I know they are 10-0 on the road to start this season but last night's home loss dropped them to 4-4 in San Antonio this season and the big key here is this line. Note that the Spurs last 8 wins have only included 1 that came by a margin of more than 9 points. As you can see, there is great value in this line. Looking at the Spurs last 14 games, they have gone 10-4 and if you were to have a +9 in those 14 games you would have a record of 10-3-1 ATS in fading the Spurs. Certainly Dallas has had some issues so far this season and they will be without Dirk Nowitzki tonight. However, Deron Williams is back and getting healthier and the Mavs got a big win versus New Orleans Sunday that helps give them some confidence as they look to make it two straight at home. While the Mavericks are rested and at home, the Spurs are in a back to back spot and on the road. Also, the San Antonio defense just has not been anything close to what it use to be in recent seasons. Last night the offense also got bogged down against Orlando's defense and you know the Mavericks D will "bring it" tonight against one of their most hated rivals. The Mavs have won 2 of the last 4 home games with SA and one of the two losses came by just 5 points. 2 of the last 3 meetings in San Antonio also have been decided by just 5 points. These teams are known for getting into tight, hard-fought battles when they meet and the Spurs have only covered 2 of 6 games against teams with a losing record so far this season. 8* DALLAS |
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11-30-16 | Wizards +6 v. Thunder | 115-126 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 13 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NBA Game #507 Wednesday - 8* Washington Wizards (+) @ Oklahoma City Thunder @ 8:05 ET - The line may seem a little low here but the "smallish" number is absolutely justified here as Wizards head coach, Scott Brooks, certainly remembers being fired by the Thunder not that long ago. There is extra motivation here for Brooks and he will have Washington to ready to go in this one. They face a Thunder team that is led by the all-everything Russell Westbrook who has truly taken over since Kevin Durant went to the Warriors. However, this will be the 6th game for Oklahoma City in the past 9 days and you have to wonder how much Westbrook and the Thunder have left in the tank. He was completely exhausted after Monday's win over the Knicks in New York. Even though the Thunder have won 3 straight, the scheduling situation favors the Wizards as they are playing just their 4th game in the last 9 days. Also, Washington has won 4 of their last 6 and, after a sloppy win over Sacramento (far too many turnovers) look for point guard John Wall to be up for the challenge of facing Westbrook tonight. When off of a non-conference game the Thunder have gone just 2-6 ATS this season and 26-41 ATS the past three seasons combined. The Wizards are 3-1 ATS this season when off of a non-conference game. 8* WASHINGTON |
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11-30-16 | Knicks v. Wolves OVER 211.5 | Top | 106-104 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
Rickenbach NBA Game #509/510 Wednesday - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Timberwolves vs New York Knicks @ 8:05 ET - Both of these teams are known for subpar defense and with each team coming off of an off-day yesterday they have fresh legs ready to push the pace on offense in this one Wednesday. The Timberwolves have allowed at least 50.6% from the field and at least 112 points in 3 of their last 4 games. The Knicks have allowed an average of 107 points per game in their last 7 games. New York has been happy to push the pace (95.5 field goal attempts per game in their last 4 games). Minnesota also has pushed the pace well with 85.4 shot attempts per game in their last 5 games. Each of the Knicks last 3 road games have resulted in overs. 4 of the Timberwolves last 6 home games have resulted in overs. The over is 5-2 the last 7 when Minny is off of a game where they allowed 105 points or more. The over is 20-13 when the T-wolves are off of a divisional game. As a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points, the Knicks are 13-8 to the over the past 3 seasons combined. Look for more of the same tonight as these teams get into another high-scoring shootout as they have both been playing particularly weak defense of late. 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota |
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11-30-16 | James Madison +7 v. Charlotte | 56-65 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 44 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #525 Wednesday - 8* James Madison Dukes @ Charlotte 49ers @ 7 ET - This line has gone from a 4.5 to a 7 in favor of Charlotte and I completely understand the line move (James Madison is winless on the season). However, this is a classic case where we are getting extra line value because of "going against the grain" and it is absolutely justified here. The 0-6 Dukes have played a tougher schedule so far this season in comparison with the 49ers who are 4-2 so far this season. Also, Charlotte plays in Conference USA and is projected to end up in about the 10th or 11th spot in the 14-team conference this season. The significance in that from my perspective is that I have resided in the San Antonio area for many years now and am quite familiar with the level of play of the UTSA Roadrunners and they are projected to finish "neck and neck" in that 10th/11th spot in the conference this season. The quality of UTSA basketball has not been that strong in recent seasons and so, the point is, we are getting excellent line value here in fading this move. Keep in mind, James Madison is projected to finish near the top of the Colonial Athletic Association this season and, though certainly not a powerhouse conference, the Dukes are off of a 21-11 year and hungry for more this season. They are adjusting to the coaching change but did return the majority of their team (including 4 of the 5 starters) from last season's team. After getting blown out by Rice and losing a tight one to Old Dominion (both are more talented C-USA teams in comparison with Charlotte) look for the Dukes to take advantage of the step down in level of competition here. James Madison is on a 20-7 ATS run in road games while Charlotte has gone 28-40 ATS when playing with one day or less of rest and this is also the 49ers 3rd game in 5 days. Big rest edge to the Dukes in this one. 8* JAMES MADISON |
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11-29-16 | Buffalo v. Creighton OVER 154 | 72-93 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show | |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach CBB Game #737/738 Tuesday - 8* OVER the total in Creighton Blue Jays vs Buffalo Bulls @ 8:30 ET - Creighton is off of their worst shooting performance from beyond the arc this season and yet they still scored 82 points. That shows you just how potent this Blue Jays offense is and, after connecting on only 27.6% of their three pointers against Loyola-MD, look for Creighton to resume the hot shooting tonight. The Blue Jays are averaging 91.8 points per game and they're facing a Bulls team that allowed Xavier, the toughest opponent they've faced this season, to put up 86 points on them. The odds makers have this line right around a 20 and if Creighton hits their average of 92 that means 72 would be expected of the Bulls and that pushes this one clear of the current total of 154 (as of early Tuesday morning) by a double digit margin and that has me "in play" in this one. Even though CJ Massinburg has been out for the Bulls, Blake Hamilton and Willie Connor are both very strong perimeter players. Look for the over to improve to 10-5 in Buffalo's last 15 Tuesday games and 7-3 in the Blue Jays last 10 games where they have been a home favorite of 12.5 points or more. Creighton is not known for their defensive intensity as they are allowing 74.8 points per game so far this season and have not held any of their first six opponents under 40% from the field and I expect this one to be a fast-paced "run and gun" affair and will take advantage of the initial downward movement on this total. 8* OVER the total in Creighton |
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11-29-16 | Pistons +3 v. Hornets | 112-89 | Win | 100 | 14 h 49 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #701 Tuesday - 8* Detroit Pistons (+) @ Charlotte Hornets @ 7:05 ET - Though is has been a tough start to the season for the Pistons in their road games (1-8 SU and ATS), this is the perfect spot to change all that. Detroit has had two days off since an ugly road loss followed solid back to back home wins. While the Pistons are rested for this game, the Hornets are off of a big road win at Memphis last night and tonight's game is not only a back to back for Charlotte, it is their 4th game in 5 nights! It is also the Hornets 8th game in 12 days so this has truly been a tough part of the schedule for Charlotte. The Hornets are 0-3 ATS when in the 2nd game of a back to back this season. The Pistons are already a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS against Southeast Division opponents this season. Before the ugly loss at Oklahoma City, the Pistons had gone "only" 4-4 in their 8 prior games but 3 of the 4 losses were by 3 points or less. Detroit has certainly been "on the cusp" of late and they "break through" tonight in this very advantageous scheduling spot. 8* DETROIT |
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11-29-16 | Pittsburgh +4 v. Maryland | 73-59 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
ESPN2 Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #713 Tuesday - 8* Pittsburgh Panthers (+) @ Maryland Terrapins @ 7 ET - The Terrapins are undefeated (7-0 on the season), at home, and they opened as only a 4-point favorite in this one. Something definitely looks "funny" here and you know where that had me looking of course, right? The other side! The fact is that Maryland lost so much from last season and, outside of Melo Trimble there certainly is a ton of talent but it is going to take awhile to piece everything together. That said, the reason the Terps are undefeated this season is they've faced an easier schedule than Pittsburgh has and Maryland has managed to win some tight games. 5 of their 7 wins have come by an average margin of victory of only 3.8 points! Keep in mind, this is even though the Terrapins early-season schedule certainly has not been overly tough. Now the Terps have to deal with a hungry Panthers team that is looking to establish themselves under new head coach Kevin Stallings - a 24-year veteran coach in his first year with Pittsburgh. The Panthers only loss so far this season was to a strong SMU team and Pitt has shot the ball well (at least 44% from the field) in 5 straight games. The Terrapins have been held under 40.5% from the field in 3 of their 7 games. Maryland is on an 11-19 ATS run in non-conference games, 12-22 ATS run in home games, and the Terps are already 0-3 ATS as a favorite this season. The Panthers as a dangerous dog with plenty of returning talent from last season are offering significant line value here. 8* PITTSBURGH |
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11-28-16 | Butler v. Utah OVER 142 | Top | 68-59 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #523/524 Monday - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Utah Utes vs Butler Bulldogs @ 9 ET - Both teams are undefeated as the Bulldogs are 6-0 and the Utes are 4-0 so far this season. What I like about that is that oftentimes winning streaks will mask defensive shortcomings. When a team is winning you feel like you can do no wrong no matter how you're playing and the key here is that both teams are full of confidence on the offensive end too. Utah has shot 49.8% from the field this season and averaged 89 points per game while Butler has shot 50% from the field and averaged 80.2 points per game game so far this season. The Utes have great numbers on defense but, keep in mind, they have played a super easy schedule. The toughest 'test' so far for Utah was against Cal-Riverside Friday and the Utes did allow 67 points in that game. The Bulldogs are going to give the Utes defense an even tougher test but Butler will also find that Utah is capable of big scoring runs at home. Both teams are playing with so much confidence offensively that there will be no reluctance to push the tempo and to take shots early in the shot clock. I expect the pace of this game to therefore be very conducive to a solid over. There is an infusion of youth and new talent for each of these teams and that means defensive breakdowns when facing guys who are strong off of the dribble and can create open looks for others. The over is 9-3 in Utah's November games the past 3 seasons combined and the Utes are also 18-9 to the over in non-conference games with a posted O/U the last 3 seasons. Look for more of the same tonight as Butler's productivity on offense has been impressive this season but the Utes, at home, will hang right with the Bulldogs all the way through this one. The result is a high-scoring, up-tempo affair. 10* Top Play OVER the total in Utah |
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11-28-16 | Jazz v. Wolves +2.5 | Top | 112-103 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
THE Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #510 Monday - 10* Top Play Minnesota Timberwolves (+) vs Utah Jazz @ 8:05 ET - This line has gone from a pick'em to a -2.5 with Utah and that is adding to the value here with home dog Minnesota. The Timberwolves will be ultra hungry tonight as they are off of a loss at Golden State Saturday and also have triple revenge against the division rival Jazz as they lost each of the final 3 meetings last season. Minny is happy to be back home where they have been a much tougher team. Though the T-wolves are only 3-4 at home, all 3 wins came by at least a 24 point margin while 3 of their 4 home losses came by 7 points or less. Minnesota appears to be catching Utah at the right time to exact revenge. The Jazz are off of back to back win and covers but this has happened 3 times already this season and, every single time, Utah has lost their next game and failed to cover (an 0-3 SU and ATS mark this season in this situation). As you would expect with a young team, the Timberwolves tend to perform better when they are at home with the support of the home fans. As for the Jazz, they are playing with two days of rest here but sometimes rest can lead to rust and, in fact, Utah has failed to cover 20 of the last 32 times they have entered a game with 2 days of rest between games. The home team has won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these teams and those 3 home wins each came by at least 13 points. Look for "home cooking" to once again be the key in this one and I'll gladly fade the early line move here. 10* Top Play MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES |
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11-27-16 | Pelicans v. Mavs +4.5 | 81-91 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
Contrarian Smash - Rickenbach NBA Game #712 Sunday - 8* Dallas Mavericks (+) vs New Orleans Pelicans @ 7:05 ET - New Orleans had been on a hot streak but after suffering a loss at Portland Friday it could be tough for the Pelicans to just shift right back into overdrive again. That said, no one will want Dallas here but that is precisely why I do. New Orleans is unlikely to get their momentum back until they get back home. This is still a Pelicans team that has only won 2 of its 8 road games. At the same time, they now face an angry Mavericks team that has been blown out in back to back games and will be ready to respond here. Yes, I know it's been an ugly season so far for the Mavericks but, after back to back thorough beatings, this is the point where professional pride kicks in. With the big line move toward New Orleans here, it has opened up even more value on the home dog in a spot where they will give their "A game" and that should be enough for the cover if not the outright upset. Look for the Mavs to improve to 3-0 ATS this season and 18-10 ATS the past three seasons combined in Sunday games. Note that the Pelicans are 0-3 ATS (and SU!!!) as a favorite this season. 8* DALLAS MAVERICKS plus the points Sunday evening |
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11-27-16 | San Jose State v. Washington State -8.5 | Top | 88-76 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
ATS Blowout - Rickenbach CBB Game #726 Sunday - 10* Top Play Washington State Cougars (-) vs San Jose State Spartans - Both of these clubs are projected to finish at the bottom of their respective conferences but that's where the key difference is in this match-up. Washington State plays in the tough PAC-12 while San Jose State is at the bottom of the Mountain West. The Cougars have a distinct size edge in this match-up and the last time these teams met, two years ago, Washington State rolled by 29 points. This one is unlikely to be quite that easy but I certainly expect the Cougars to get this by double digits and the line has dropped from a 10.5 to an 8.5 which is offering us even more line value with the big home fave here. Washington State will be fired up off of a loss as they had held 3 of their first 4 opponents to 39% or less from the field. Also, the Cougars have shot the ball very well on the other end of the floor with a 49.2% mark so far this season. The Spartans on the other hand have been held under 44% from the field in each of their last three games while allowing at least 50% from the field in 3 straight games. This is a mismatch and, though the Cougars may again struggle in PAC12 games this season, this is another non-conference match-up where they can absolutely dominate. The Cougars are 17-7 ATS as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points and now this number has dropped even lower offering more value! San Jose State is on a 7-13 ATS run in non-conference games. 10* WASHINGTON STATE minus the big points Sunday evening |
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11-26-16 | Spurs v. Wizards +6.5 | Top | 112-100 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
NBA TV Top Play - Rickenbach NBA Game #504 Saturday - 10* Top Play Washington Wizards (+) vs San Antonio Spurs @ 7:05 ET - Even though this is a back to back for both teams, the Wizards actually had 3 full off days before knocking off Orlando yesterday. For the Spurs, it's been quite a different story as this will be their 4th game in 6 days. Look for fatigue to be a factor in this one. Also, even though the Spurs are on a winning streak, they had covered only 4 of their 11 November games prior to yesterday's win at cover at Boston. San Antonio had to rally back from an early deficit to get the 6-point road win over the Celtics and it will be interesting to see how much they have left in the tank after that "big push" yesterday to get the road win. The Spurs have lost SU and ATS in each of their past two visits to D.C. Also, the Wizards have gone 4-1 ATS as a home dog of 3.5 to 6 points and now this line has crept up even higher which is giving even more line value to the home team in this one. Washington has won 3 of its past 4 games and the Wizards last 6 losses have been by an average of just 7 points. They're in this one all the way and the points should be enough to get the all-important cover. 10* Top Play WASHINGTON WIZARDS plus the points early Saturday evening |
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