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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-15-18 | Reds v. Pirates -138 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #902 Pittsburgh Pirates over Cincinnati Reds (7:05pm EST) Surprise surprise. Matt Harvey eventually came back down to earth in a Reds uniform. He's been rocked in three straight starts and he's been one of the streakier pitchers in baseball throughout his young career. We're going to continue fading Harvey today with the Pirates. No one gives Pittsburgh much respect, but they are a bunch of grinders that really play the game the right away. Go Pirates. |
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06-14-18 | Rays +163 v. Yankees | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #965 Tampa Bay Rays over New York Yankees (7:05pm EST) Blake Snell continues to impress this season. The 25-year old is 8-3 with a 2.30 ERA while striking out 9.7 batters per nine innings. The Rays just seem to know how to develop young pitchers and Snell is reaping a ton of the benefits. He matches up well with the Yankees on Friday. Left-handers have an advantage in Yankees Stadium with the short porch in right field. The Yanks haven't been hitting on all cylinders and still have the best record in baseball, which is scary. But I think this is too good of a price to pass up with Snell. Play Tampa. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-13-18 | Rangers v. Dodgers -165 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #930 Los Angeles Dodgers over Texas Rangers (10:10pm EST) Cole Hamels was once an elite pitcher in the game. Times have changed. The 34-year old left-hander is now league-average at best. Don't be fooled by the 3.86 ERA for Hamels this season. He's been fortunate, as his FIP is 5.37 in 79.1 innings of work. Texas really should be in rebuild mode. They're sitting at 27-42, dead last in the difficult AL West, but are holding onto quite a few veterans that could be moved elsewhere before the deadline. The Dodgers had an awful start to the season, but they've rallied. Los Angeles is 18-6 over their last 24 games coming into today's contest. Kenta Maeda goes for the Dodgers and he's been brilliant. Maeda owns a 2.83 FIP and has a tremendous 68-18 K-BB ratio. He doesn't get much attention, but he deserves too. This line is about 20 cents too short, so we're all over the Dodgers today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-12-18 | Nationals v. Yankees -160 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 0 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #976 New York Yankees over Washington Nationals (7:05pm EST) Lots of reasons to like the Yankees on Tuesday as they take on the Nationals. First off, the Yanks have the best record in baseball at 42-19. And they're doing it without much production from Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez and Didi Gregorius. When those guys get it going, this Yankees lineup is going to be a force to be reckoned with. They're already second in baseball in runs scored. The New York bullpen has also struggled mightily this season despite a lot of big names. It will get better, much better. CC Sabathia gets the ball for New York. He's 3-1 with a 3.59 ERA and has been much more effective at home than on the road. Yankees Stadium favors southpaws with the short dimensions in right field. Washington counters with Tanner Roark, who has put up similar numbers as Sabathia this season. The Nats have been banged up but they could be getting back Daniel Murphy and Ryan Zimmerman soon. But don't expect those guys to produce at the outset. They'll have some rust and it could be ugly in their first few games. I like the Yankees here. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-11-18 | Padres +165 v. Cardinals | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #905 San Diego Padres over St. Louis Cardinals (8:15pm EST) The San Diego Padres are a legitimate contender in the National League West. They're just 5.5 games out of first place and are 9-3 in their last 12 contests. On Monday they start a series with the Cardinals. St. Louis hasn't quite clicked on all cylinders just yet. Something feels like it's missing but it's hard to put a finger on. They're clearly the third best team in the division and with several aging players, it could make things more challenging going forward. I like the pitching matchup today for San Diego (Jordan Lyles vs. Jack Flaherty). This price is a bit too high, so we're on the Pads. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-11-18 | Cubs v. Brewers +109 | 7-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #904 Milwaukee Brewers over Chicago Cubs (8:10pm EST) Last season it looked like the Cubs had made themselves a nice trade when they brought in left-hander Jose Quintana. But after a strong beginning with the Cubs, Quintana's performance began to deteriorate. That has carried into the 2018 season as Quintana still hasn't found his old self on the mound. He currently owns a mediocre 4.20 ERA and his peripherals don't offer much in the way of improvement. On Monday, Quintana takes the hill as the Cubs start a big series in Milwaukee against the Brewers. These are the types of games that Chicago envisioned Quintana winning for them. It hasn't turned out that way and I don't see him all of a sudden figuring things out against a tough Brewers lineup. Milwaukee goes with Junior Guerra who is quietly having a real nice season with a 2.83 ERA. I like the Brewers today. |
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06-09-18 | Mariners v. Rays -135 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 16 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #926 Tampa Bay Rays over Seattle Mariners (4:10pm EST) Blake Snell is no long a future MLB ace - he already is one. The 25-year old southpaw is 7-3 with a 2.36 ERA and he's still getting better. Snell has one of the best curveballs in the game and has the pitching acumen of a cagey veteran. On Saturday he'll go up against the Seattle Mariners. What a season it has been for the first place M's. They're 40-23, but they're run differential is barely ahead of the amount of games they are above the .500 mark at just +23. Clearly, Seattle has had plenty of good fortune to get to this point. I'm worried about the lineup continuing to produce without Robinson Cano. There are several guys hitting above their abilities and that's not going to last all season. Felix Hernandez goes in this one and I think he's closer to hanging it up than people think. King Felix has a 5.33 ERA and his peripherals continue to deteriorate. At this point he's just hurting his team. Take Tampa in our Saturday big play. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-08-18 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies -103 | 9-4 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #962 Colorado Rockies over Arizona Diamondbacks (8:40pm EST) Zack Greinke isn't the same pitcher he used to be. The 34-year old right-hander is 4-4 with a 3.44, very respectable, but it's not the dominant Greinke of old. On the road, Greinke has really been a mess with a 6.14 ERA. No one has a bigger home/road split than Greinke over the last five years. Today he has to pitch in Coors Field and I don't think it's going to be pretty. The Rockies are one of the best home teams annually. This season, they're just 11-16 however. That's going to change. Colorado has the bats to take advantage of Coors Field and it's only a matter of time before they start clicking. I like the Rockies at home. |
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06-08-18 | Astros v. Rangers +177 | 7-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #974 Texas Rangers over Houston Astros (8:05pm EST) Justin Verlander has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season. With a 1.24 ERA, there's no question that he's the leader in the AL Cy Young race. However, Verlander has been a little bit less dominant in the last couple of starts and this might be an opportunity to pounce. The Rangers are in last place in the AL West, but that's not a terrible thing given the strength of the other four teams - all of whom are above the .500 mark. Doug Fister goes today and he's been solid for Texas. He has a horrid 1-6 record but it's clearly not his fault. The veteran right-hander has a 4.14 ERA and deserves a better fate. Take the Rangers. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-06-18 | Orioles +109 v. Mets | 1-0 | Win | 109 | 18 h 32 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #978 Baltimore Orioles over New York Mets (1:10pm EST) The Baltimore Orioles have been a complete disaster this season. They have the worst record in the sport. But while they’re a really bad team overall, they are absolutely horrific on the road. The O’s are 7-23 away from home this season and they’ve struggled in every phase of the game. Dylan Bundy is slated to go on Wednesday. He comes in 3-7 with a 4.46 ERA and that is after a tremendous start to the season. I have a feeling that Bundy isn’t 100% healthy because he looked very sharp in early April and has been a train wreck since the end of the April. The Mets haven’t been hitting much, but they’re outscoring the Orioles, who play in Camden Yards. Zack Wheeler take the mound for the Mets. He carries a bulky 5.14 ERA, but his peripherals are much better. Wheeler has a 3.88 FIP and is striking out more than a better per inning. I’ll take him over Bundy right now and I think the Mets have a better supporting cast. Throw in home field advantage and this line is about 20 cents too short. Play the Mets on Wednesday. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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06-05-18 | A's -140 v. Rangers | 4-7 | Loss | -140 | 25 h 46 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #917 Oakland A’s over Texas Rangers (8:05pm EST) I’m not sure why Matt Moore still has a job in the Texas rotation, but we’ll look to take advantage on Tuesday. Moore is 1-5 with a 7.85 ERA in 47 innings of work. Moore is getting hit hard. Opposing batters have a .396 BABIP and Moore has a putrid 39-23 K-BB ratio. The A’s lineup has produced in 2018 with several young guys developing quickly. They’re in the top half of the league in runs scored and I think the offense is going to keep getting better. Sean Manaea takes the hill for Oakland in this one. I love his approach as he’s come through in a big way this season with a 3.60 ERA despite a low strikeout rate. He’s a pitcher’s pitcher. Most would stay away from this game given the high price tag on the road, but I think it should be even higher. Take the A’s here. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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06-04-18 | Diamondbacks -101 v. Giants | 3-10 | Loss | -101 | 26 h 17 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #953 Arizona Diamondbacks over San Francisco Giants (10:10pm EST) Another spot to fade Derek Holland presents itself in Monday’s game between the Diamondbacks and Giants.  Holland is 3-6 with a 4.94 ERA and he’s pitched in quite a few pitcher-friendly parks in 2018. He hasn’t posted an ERA below 4.91 in the last four years and at age 31, he’s certainly past his prime and isn’t likely to get any better. The Giants are an aging team is struggling to keep up in today’s environment that focuses on youth and the home run ball. Arizona seems to be back on track after a really rough stretch. They’ve won four of five and are now back atop the National League West division. Zack Godley gets the ball for the Snakes and I like his stuff. He’s been inconsistent throughout his young career, but if he can cut down on the walks, he’ll be a legitimate middle-of-the-rotation starter. Play Arizona. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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06-03-18 | Rays -105 v. Mariners | 1-2 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 24 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #925 Tampa Bay Rays over Seattle Mariners (4:10pm EST) There are lots of reasons to like the Rays on Sunday and it starts with Blake Snell. The 25-year old left-hander has one of the best curveballs in the game and owns a 7-3 record and 2.56 ERA in 12 starts this season. He’s a future ace that is only going to get better as he learns how to pitch. On the other side is a former ace in Felix Hernandez. King Felix isn’t exactly royalty anymore, however. He comes in with a horrid 5.83 ERA – his worst of his career. His velocity and stuff are way down and I’m not sure it’s going to get much better for the former Cy Young. Tampa has turned some heads this season as they’ve hovered around the .500 mark in a tough AL East division. The Mariners have turned even more heads, posting a .600+ winning percentage and the third best record in the AL. I think regression is coming though. The Mariners are only +14 in run differential, which indicates they should only be a few games over the .500 mark rather than where they’re at. The loss of Robinson Cano also cannot be overstated. Tampa is the better team and has the better pitcher going in this one. Take the Rays. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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06-03-18 | Marlins v. Diamondbacks -131 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 47 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #912 Arizona Diamondbacks over Miami Marlins (4:10pm EST) We cashed a big ticket with the Diamondbacks last night over the Marlins and we'll look to do it again tonight. For some reason, the Marlins are getting more respect than they should in the betting markets. This is a team with the worst run differential in all of baseball and there's no one within striking distance. They're bad. The D-Backs have been in a funk, but they're starting to turn it around and a series against Miami helps matters. Not the best of pitching matchups here for Arizona, but Matt Koch won't need to go more than five innings. Take the Diamondbacks. |
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06-03-18 | Indians -106 v. Twins | 5-7 | Loss | -106 | 3 h 40 m | Show | |
2-unit Play Take #919 Cleveland Indians over Minnesota Twins (2:10pm EST) What a job Mike Clevinger has done this season in the rotation. The cagey right-hander is 4-2 with a 3.14 ERA while only striking out 7.6 batters per nine innings. While some regression is in order, Clevinger is good an inducing weak contact so his numbers are somewhat sustainable. The Indians should also expect the bullpen to get considerably better as they're posting some of the worst numbers in all of baseball. But when they're in the lead, it's Andrew Miller and Cody Allen at the backend and I still have confidence in them despite the rocky start. I'm not much of a believer in the Twins. They are underachieving in the eyes of many this season, but this is about what I expected. Take the Tribe on the road today. |
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06-02-18 | Marlins v. Diamondbacks -168 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
5-unit Play Take #964 Arizona Diamondbacks over Miami Marlins (10:10pm EST) Zack Greinke at home has been one of the best bets in baseball in recent years and nothing has changed in 2018. Greinke owns a miniscule 1.69 ERA in Chase Field this season, and a 6.14 ERA pitching on the road. Greinke's anxiety issues are well-documented and pitching at home seems to put him at ease. He has some of the biggest home/road splits of anyone I've seen. Greinke will face a weak Marlins lineup, ranked dead last in baseball in runs scored, in Saturday's matchup. Miami goes with youngster Caleb Smith who has been solid in 2018 with a 3.51 ERA. Smith has good stuff but he's clearly pitching over his head based on his minor league track record. Regression is coming. The price on this game is relatively low given Smith's early season success, but I like the Diamondbacks behind Greinke here. Take Arizona in our MLB Game of the Week. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-01-18 | Indians -115 v. Twins | 4-7 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 19 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #921 Cleveland Indians over Minnesota Twins (8:10pm EST) Carlos Carrasco is one of the most underrated starting pitchers in baseball. While getting overshadowed by Corey Kluber on his own team, all Carrasco has done is post four straight seasons with ERA’s at 3.63 or lower. His numbers are down a bit this season, but I like to focus on the bigger picture. Carrasco is easily a top 10 pitcher in the game, but he rarely gets priced that way. Both of the Indians and Twins have been struggling in 2018, but I like the chances for the Tribe to break out of it more quickly. Cleveland has the better lineup and their bullpen can’t get any worse than it has been in 2018. Jose Berrios goes for the Twins today. He’s put up solid numbers so far but I’m not convinced he’s a front-of-the-rotation type arm. Cleveland has won four straight and is playing their best baseball of the season right now. Take the Indians in Friday’s matchup. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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05-31-18 | Rangers +143 v. Mariners | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #971 Texas Rangers over Seattle Mariners (10:10pm EST) Mike Minor is better than his 5.63 ERA indicates and the Rangers are a better team than their 24-34 mark indicates. Texas has won their last two games and are 6-3 in their last nine contests. They've been riddled with injuries this season and are getting healthier, but Adrian Beltre and Elvis Andrus are still out. Seattle is without Robinson Cano and Dee Gordon, who are even bigger losses. Take the Rangers today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-31-18 | Rays +131 v. A's | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 47 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #963 Tampa Bay Rays over Oakland A's (3:35pm EST) The Oakland A's played one of their worst games on the season yesterday. They failed to get a hit in six innings against Nate Eovaldi and mustered just one in three innings against the bullpen. Oakland also committed four errors in the field in their 6-0 loss to the Rays. These two teams go at it again today. After a demoralizing loss yesterday, I think the A's might have a little hangover effect. They'll go up against right-handed starter Ryne Stanek of the Rays, who will likely go just an inning or so. It's part of the new strategy that Tampa is deploying to set themselves up better later in the game. It seems to be messing with the heads of opponents, so it is working to some extent. Oakland goes with Daniel Mengden, who is 5-4 with a 2.85 ERA in 11 starts. His peripherals say that he's been fortunate, as he's produced a .246 BABIP and given up less home runs than he should have. I like Tampa as the underdog in this game. |
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05-30-18 | Giants v. Rockies -160 | 7-4 | Loss | -160 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
2-unit Play Take #910 Colorado Rockies (-160) over San Francisco Giants (8:40pm EST) We easily connected on our Colorado over San Francisco selection (11-4) yesterday and we're going back to it tonight for many of the same reasons. Derek Holland goes for the Giants and it's a wonder that he still has a job. He owns a 4.73 ERA in 10 starts and that's his best mark in four years. I will be shocked if he finishes the season in the rotation and has an ERA less than 5.00. The Rockies go with Jon Gray today and he's been extremely unfortunate in 2018. While he has a 5.40 ERA, his peripherals say it should be in the low 3's. He has an impressive 71-16 K-BB ratio but has been hindered with a high .368 BABIP and a poor 64% strand rate. Those numbers will get better and his ERA will come down in a hurry. Take Colorado in this matchup. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-30-18 | Cubs -122 v. Pirates | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -122 | 24 h 24 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #905 Chicago Cubs over Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05pm EST) The Chicago Cubs haven’t hit their stride yet in 2018. But they’re still sitting in second place in the NL Central and have the best run differential in the National League by a pretty healthy margin. The offense has been terrific thus far and the bullpen has been lights out as well. It’s the starting rotation that has been the biggest problem in Chicago, but that won’t be an issue on Wednesday. Kyle Hendricks gets the ball for the Cubs and he’s rock solid once again with a 3.16 ERA in 11 starts. He isn’t flashy but he doesn’t walk many and knows how to induce weak contact. The Pirates counter with Joe Musgrove, who will make just his second major league start this season. Musgrove was terrific in his debut with the Pirates last time out versus the Cardinals. He went seven innings without allowing a run and issues just five hits and a walk. I think too much emphasis is being placed on that one start, however, as the line for this game is about 10-15 cents too low. Take the Cubs on the road as small favorites here. |
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05-29-18 | Giants v. Rockies -140 | 4-11 | Win | 100 | 27 h 32 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #958 Colorado Rockies over San Francisco Giants (8:40pm EST) The Colorado Rockies are a first place baseball team, yet they’re still struggling to get respect from the betting markets. Meanwhile, the San Francisco Giants have been below the .500 mark all season and have been priced like a playoff team at times. But the Giants’ veterans are mostly past their prime and I see this team getting worse before it gets better. The Rockies have a huge edge in the starting pitcher department Tuesday (Kyle Freeland over Jeff Samardzija) and have the home field advantage. Nobody has played more road games than the Rockies and that will play to their advantage going forward. This price is at least 10-15 cents too low, so we’re on Colorado in Coors Field on Tuesday. |
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05-28-18 | Marlins v. Padres +106 | 7-2 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 11 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #908 San Diego Padres over Miami Marlins (4:10pm EST) You won’t see the Miami Marlins favored on the road very often this season and for good reason. Miami is on pace for well over 100 losses and they have the worst run differential in baseball. Caleb Smith, who has been their best starter, gets the ball for this contest. He’s 3-5 with a 3.83 ERA, but his control has been spotty at times. Smith never put up great numbers in the minor leagues so I think he’s due to come back down to earth soon. The Padres are in the cellar of the difficult NL West but they haven’t played terrible baseball. They’ve looked much better recently and I think this team will be capable of contending soon. Eric Lauer goes for the Pads here and he comes in with a bulky 6.67 ERA. But most of that damage took place in two starts – one in Coors Field and the other against the Cardinals. San Diego believes in his arm and I do too. Take San Diego as home underdogs on Monday. |
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05-28-18 | Astros v. Yankees +110 | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 39 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #916 New York Yankees over Houston Astros (1:05pm EST) Justin Verlander and the Houston Astros come to New York for a big series with the Yankees. The Astros just got done with a big four-game series in Cleveland. Yesterday's game went 14 innings (a 9-8 loss) and the Astros went through eight pitchers. Now they'll look to get off the mat against a tough Yankees team. Verlander has been amazing this season at 6-2 with a 1.08 ERA in 74.2 innings. His control has been excellent, but he's also been fortunate with a .209 BABIP and 89% strand rate. His peripherals point to an ERA around 3.00, so regression is on its way. The Yankees have the bats to do some damage obviously and they're healthier now than they have been all year. Domingo German takes the ball for Bronx Bombers. He hasn't put up great numbers in limited work, but he's not going to be asked to go past the fifth inning. German will turn it over to a great bullpen and if he can keep it close, this game sets up well for the Yanks. The Yankees swept the Astros earlier this month in Houston and might be in the Astros heads a bit. Take New York in Monday's game. |
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05-28-18 | Blue Jays +170 v. Red Sox | 3-8 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 38 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #917 Toronto Blue Jays over Boston Red Sox (1:05pm EST) David Price still hasn't figured it out in a Boston uniform. He's gone from one of the very best pitchers in baseball to a middle-of-the-rotation arm. Linesmakers, however, are still treating him like an ace. Price has a 4.08 ERA and is striking out less than a batter per inning. He'll go up against the Toronto Blue Jays on Monday. The Jays have hit better than I expected this season and I think they get to Price. Mookie Betts is also questionable for the Red Sox, which would be a huge loss. Take Toronto at this big price. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-27-18 | Reds v. Rockies -147 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 16 h 28 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #958 Colorado Rockies over Cincinnati Reds (3:10pm EST) This is the game where it hits the fans for Matt Harvey. I’m not a believer that he has all of a sudden figured things out after getting traded to the Reds. His 2.57 ERA with Cincinnati is not indicative of how he’s pitched in his three starts with them. Harvey has a 4.12 xFIP in those games and benefited from a .231 BABIP and 88% strand rate. Now he goes to Coors Field where his low groundball rate is going to hurt him badly. The Rockies are quietly in first place in the NL West despite playing more road games than any team in baseball up to this point. Since they have one of the biggest home field advantages in the game, that bodes well for Colorado going forward. German Marquez gets the ball for the Rockies in this one. He comes in with a 4.62 ERA but that’s mostly due to a couple of poor outings in Coors. The Rockies should be favored by at least 20 cents higher in this one. Take Colorado. |
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05-26-18 | Astros v. Indians +100 | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #922 Cleveland Indians (+100) over Houston Astros (7:15pm EST) It's not often you can back Carlos Carrasco as a home underdog. Of course, they're going up against the red hot Astros, but it's not against Verlander or Cole. Lance McCullers gets the ball for this one. He's put together a very good season at 6-2 with a 3.20 ERA in 10 starts. Carrasco's numbers are just a touch worse, but I rate him a bit higher overall. The Indians are also one of the better home teams in baseball in recent years. This should be a fun match up, but I like the Tribe at this price. |
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05-26-18 | White Sox +123 v. Tigers | 8-4 | Win | 123 | 22 h 32 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #915 Chicago White Sox over Detroit Tigers (4:10pm EST) It’s going to be tough making money backing the Chicago White Sox this season, but Saturday presents us with a rare opportunity to do so. They take on the Tigers in Detroit. The Tigers are currently about five games better than the White Sox and have a much better run differential. But don’t expect that to last. Detroit has lost five of their last six and have started to struggle plating runs without Miguel Cabrera in the lineup. They’ll go up against Hector Santiago of the Sox here. Santiago has struggled on the mound in 2018, but I’ve been seeing some positive signs lately. Francisco Liriano pitches for the Tigers. He has a nice 3.42 ERA, but it’s not well-deserved. Liriano has a 4.97 xFIP and is striking out just 6.3 batters per nine. That rate isn’t going to cut it in today’s baseball. These two teams are much closer than their records indicate, and I actually think the White Sox are better when the Tigers are without Cabrera. Take Chicago in this one.
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05-26-18 | Diamondbacks v. A's -161 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 31 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #930 Oakland A's (-160) over Arizona Diamondbacks (4:05pm EST) Things have completely unraveled for the Diamondbacks. They've dropped 13 of 15 and are now just 26-24 after a great start to the 2018 campaign. Meanwhile, the A's have quietly put together a solid 26-25 record when expectations were low. That's especially impressive given they play in the difficult AL West with the Astros, Mariners and Angels. Clay Buchholz goes for Arizona tonight in his second start of the season. He yielded just one run in five innings last time out, but he struck out just two batters. The stuff didn't look to be there, so I think Oakland hits him hard. Take the A's. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-25-18 | Twins v. Mariners -177 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #974 Seattle Mariners over Minnesota Twins (10:10pm EST) James Paxton isn't a budding ace. He's already there. Despite the lack of notoriety, Paxton is one of the top 10 pitchers in the game. He has tremendous stuff and is striking out 11.3 batters per nine innings. Last season he posted a 2.98 ERA in 136 innings and this season he's 3-1 with a 3.30 ERA. I don't think we've seen his best yet. The Mariners are 29-20 and they've played a lot more road games than most teams at this point in the season. They're legitimate playoff contender. The Twins are not. Despite playing the worst division in baseball, Minnesota is three games under .500 more than a quarter of the way through the season. Fernando Romero gets the ball for them today and he's not nearly as good as the 1.66 ERA indicates. He has a 4.20 xFIP and has had some control issues. Take Seattle in this one. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-24-18 | Astros v. Indians +117 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #912 Cleveland Indians over Houston Astros (6:10pm EST) The Cleveland Indians have put together a mediocre season up to this point. They're just 24-23 coming into today, although that is good enough for the top spot in the AL Central. But the Tribe are showing some signs of life. They just completely an impressive two-game sweep of the Cubs in which their staff allowed just one run. The bats are also starting to wake up. This team is too good to stay around the .500 mark for much longer. Houston is 32-18 and clearly the best team in baseball. They've won six of seven and have looked impressive in doing so. However, I don't think they are justified laying this price in Cleveland. Charlie Morton has been great at 6-0 with a 1.94 ERA, but his peripherals show that he's been fortunate. He deserves an ERA over 3.00 at this point. Mike Clevinger goes to the mound for the Tribe. Clevinger has been terrific with a 2.87 ERA. He has a tremendous groundball rate and he knows how to pitch to contact. I like Cleveland as the home underdog. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-22-18 | Marlins v. Mets -119 | 5-1 | Loss | -119 | 24 h 38 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #906 New York Mets over Miami Marlins (7:10pm EST) The Mets stumbled mightily after a red hot start to the season, but they seem to have it back together now. New York swept the Diamondbacks over the weekend and host the Marlins for the second game in a three-game set. Zack Wheler is slated to get the ball in this one for the Mets. He’s really struggled with his control in 2018, but his numbers are better than they appear at first glance. Wheeler’s 5.92 ERA is due to some misfortune given his .324 BABIP and 68% strand rate. Two starts have contributed to most of the damage against Wheeler this season. I expect him to improve as the season goes on and he gets more comfortable as it’s still been less than a year since he returned from Tommy John surgery. The Marlins are a mess and I think it’s going to get worse before it gets better for them. They will likely be trading away for valuable pieces before the deadline and the attitude around the team isn’t great with Derek Jeter at the helm. Take the Mets to win this one at home at a very short price. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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05-21-18 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers +105 | 2-4 | Win | 105 | 24 h 52 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #958 Milwaukee Brewers over Arizona Diamondbacks (7:40pm EST) This selection is all about how these two teams are playing right now. I think this is a fairly even matchup given the starting pitchers and the overall talent on both teams. However, the Brewers come in with a 12-6 record in their last 18 games. The Diamondbacks, on the other hand, have dropped 10 of 11 overall. Baseball is a streaky sport and that affect is even stronger in 2018 with all of the strikeouts and home runs we have seen. Zack Greinke also has some of the worst road splits in the game today, so don’t expect a great game from him. Play the Brewers at the small price at home. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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05-20-18 | Dodgers v. Nationals -135 | 7-2 | Loss | -135 | 2 h 10 m | Show | |
2-unit Play Take #910 Washington Nationals over Los Angeles Dodgers (1:35pm EST) The Los Angeles Dodgers are a lost team right now. Checking in at 18-26 the Dodgers, the Dodgers are already seven games back in the NL West. Last year's deep run all the way to Game 7 of the World Series may be partially responsible. Injuries have also been a big factor. Whatever the case, they're running into a red hot Nationals team in D.C. The Nats are 13-3 in their last 16 games overall and pitching is the main reason. Stephen Strasburg is slated to go on Sunday and he's raised his game to another level starting in the second half of last season. Strasburg is 5-3 with a 3.28 ERA to go along with an exceptional 68-13 K-BB ratio. Alex Wood goes for Los Angeles. Wood has taken a step back from last season's amazing numbers as all of his numbers are down across the board. Take the Nats to get the job done on Sunday here. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-19-18 | Rockies -117 v. Giants | 4-9 | Loss | -117 | 5 h 0 m | Show | |
5-unit Play Take #953 Colorado Rockies over San Francisco Giants (4:05pm EST) Jon Gray is turning into an ace pitcher for the Rockies. His 4.85 ERA this year is scaring bettors away, but don't let it fool you. Gray has a 2.97 xFIP and is pitching even better than the did last year when he went 10-4 with a 3.67 ERA. Gray is striking out 10.2 batters per nine innings and he's only walked 12 batters in 52 innings. It's even more impressive given the fact that five of his nine starts have been in Coors Field. He'll face an underperforming Giants team that has trouble consistently scoring runs this season. The age of this team is really showing, and I see them becoming the Detroit Tigers in a couple of years, maybe sooner. Chris Stratton gets the ball for San Francisco today. There's not much to like from him and his 4.88 ERA, despite pitching in a pitcher-friendly environment at home as well as other very friendly parks in the NL West. Take Colorado this win this one in our MLB Game of the Week. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-18-18 | Rockies +103 v. Giants | 6-1 | Win | 103 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #913 Colorado Rockies over San Francisco Giants (10:15pm EST) When Derek Holland takes the mound and you can find this low of a price to bet against him, you have to take a close look. I've taken a close look and there are plenty of reasons to like the Rockies on Friday. Colorado has been much better than the Giants this season despite playing a ton of road games already. The Rockies have played 26 of their 44 games away from Coors and have posted a 24-20 record. I also like what Kyle Freeland has done for Colorado this season. Freeland has a 3.42 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in eight starts and seems to have taken a big step forward from a successful rookie campaign last year. I think he's a rotation mainstay for years to come. Play Colorado at the attractive price here. |
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05-18-18 | Yankees v. Royals +161 | 2-5 | Win | 161 | 25 h 28 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #924 Kansas City Royals over New York Yankees (8:15pm EST) The Yankees have shown that they are a force to be reckoned with. They’re now the favorite to win the World Series at several sportsbooks, and for good reason. That being said, there’s no way CC Sabathia should be this big of a favorite on the road against anyone. The 37-year old veteran has a scant 2.23 ERA in seven starts, but he’s been extremely fortunate. The team has played tremendous defense behind him and Sabathia’s xFIP is 4.11 (hint: regression is coming). The Royals have dug themselves a big hole, but I don’t think they’re as bad as their record indicates. They’ve had some injuries, including Salvador Perez, who is now back in the lineup. I really like what I’ve seen from Royals starter Jakob Junis, who’s 4-3 with a 3.53 ERA in eight starts. Take the Royals as the big home underdog on Friday. |
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05-18-18 | Padres v. Pirates -125 | 3-2 | Loss | -125 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #904 Pittsburgh Pirates over San Diego Padres (7:05pm EST) The betting line on this game is just too low given what we've seen this season. The Pirates are sitting atop of the NL Central and they've earned it. The Pirates have outscored their opponents by 32runs in 2018 and they've been getting stronger as the season progresses. The Pirates have won eight of 10 and are an impressive 15-6 at home this season. The Padres are sitting in the NL West cellar at 17-28 and that's while playing the most home games in baseball. 29 of the Padres' 45 games have been played at Petco and now they're on the road for a long 10-game road trip. Tyson Ross and Ivan Nova take the mound in this game. Ross has better numbers in 2018, but I have more confidence in Nova under the tutelage of Pittsburgh pitching coach Ray Searage. The guru of pitching has ways of transforming guys and he's made some positive changes in Nova's approach since he came over to the Pirates. Play Pittsburgh at the short price at home. |
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05-17-18 | Tigers v. Mariners -163 | 3-2 | Loss | -163 | 26 h 19 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #968 Seattle Mariners over Detroit Tigers (10:10pm EST) The Detroit Tigers are currently holding their own at 19-23 in the early going. But don’t expect it to last for long. They’ve had the ball bounce their way in the early going and regression is going to come. Miguel Cabrera is still out and he’s a huge loss in the middle of an already weak lineup. Miguel Gonzales and the Mariners will face the Tigers on Thursday night in Seattle. Gonzales has a bulky 5.31 ERA, but his peripherals are much better. He has a tremendous 41-8 K-BB ratio and an xFIP of 3.09 in his eight starts. Matt Boyd goes for Detroit and he’s been a lot worse than his 3.21 ERA indicates. His xFIP is at 5.04 due to a low .242 BABIP and an unsustainable low home run rate. The Mariners should win this game rather easily and that’s where we’re going on Thursday. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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05-16-18 | Reds v. Giants -145 | 6-3 | Loss | -145 | 21 h 32 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #904 San Francisco Giants over Cincinnati Reds (3:45pm EST) I’m not buying the Matt Harvey turnaround in Cincinnati. Harvey had a good debut with the Reds but lasted four innings and Harvey struck out just two batters. He’s not putting the work in that he needs to, and I don’t think a change in scenery is going to change that. The Reds have been playing better of late, but now Joey Votto is banged up and that’s a huge potential loss. I’m not big on the Giants’ strategy of going older and trying to win now. They are still a couple of guys short of being a playoff team, but they’re miles ahead of the Reds in the talent department. I like what I’ve seen from rookie starter Andrew Suarez. He has a strong 23-4 K-BB ratio in 21.2 innings of work and looks the part. The Reds are getting some attention after a four-game sweep in Los Angeles, but I think that had more to do with the Dodgers’ struggles than anything else. Take the Giants at home in this one. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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05-15-18 | Indians -126 v. Tigers | 8-9 | Loss | -126 | 25 h 47 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #963 Cleveland Indians over Detroit Tigers (7:10pm EST) The Detroit Tigers are currently within striking distance of the Indians for first place in the AL Central. It wasn’t supposed to be this way, but don’t worry – it will change soon. The Tigers have a lot of aging veterans and some of their guys are going to break down. Miguel Cabrera is already on the disabled list and that’s a huge loss to the lineup. We’re also seeing guys like Victor Martinez slow down and there are several holes in the lineup on a daily basis. The Indians have started slowly but Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor have really kicked it into high gear lately. The offense is starting to pick up some steam and I think the Tribe could be at the beginning of a big run. Josh Tomlin and Francisco Liriano get the ball for their respective teams on Tuesday. Tomlin has been horrific in the early going with an 8.06 ERA in 25.2 innings of work. The good news is that he can only get better from here. The bad news is that he isn’t striking many guys out, although he should be helped out by the Tigers lineup. Liriano checks in with a 3.35 ERA, but his peripherals point to a much worse pitcher. I like the Indians to get this one. |
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05-15-18 | White Sox v. Pirates -138 | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #976 Pittsburgh Pirates over Chicago White Sox (7:05pm EST) The Chicago White Sox have the worst record in MLB and there are still a lot of bumps in the road ahead for them. There are many more prospects in the pipeline that will be brought up. While that could bode well for the future, it's probably going to hurt the team in the near term. Reynaldo Lopez goes for the Sox tonight and he's posted a 2.44 ERA in 44.1 innings of work. That sounds great on the surface, but Lopez has a 5.54 xFIP. That means he has deserved an ERA in the mid-5's due to an incredibly low BABIP of .202 and an 83% strand rate - both unsustainable. Trevor Williams goes for the Buccos. Williams has also been fortunate with his 3.13 ERA, but his overall peripherals are better and he's going to get more support from his teammates. The Pirates are six games above .500 and has been great at home with a 13-8 record. Take Pittsburgh today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-14-18 | Mariners +106 v. Twins | 1-0 | Win | 106 | 24 h 58 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #915 Seattle Mariners over Minnesota Twins (7:10pm EST)  The Minnesota Twins are 17-18 this season, which doesn’t appear to be all that bad on the surface. However, when you consider they’re playing in a division that includes the Tigers, Royals and White Sox, it’s been a disaster so far for Minnesota. The Twins have struggled outside of the AL Central in 2018 and they’ve been outscored by 16 runs overall. Jake Odorizzi takes the mound on Monday as the Twins host the Mariners. Odorizzi is 3-2 with a 3.83 ERA, but his FIP is at 5.53 as he’s been fortunate with a .243 BABIP and 83% strand rate. Regression is coming for Odorizzi. Seattle is flying a little under-the-radar right now in third place in the AL West. They’re 22-17 and have been especially good away from home at 14-9. Wade LeBlanc gets the ball for the M’s in this one. He’s having a very solid season and was recently put into the rotation after good work in the bullpen. LeBlanc has excellent control and has been able to avoid the home run ball for the most part this season. Seattle is the much better ballclub here and they have the edge on the mound. Play the Mariners. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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05-13-18 | Nationals v. Diamondbacks -130 | 6-4 | Loss | -130 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
7-unit Play Take #964 Arizona Diamondbacks over Washington Nationals (8:05pm EST) This is the Sunday Night ESPN game - a scene that the Diamondbacks aren't too familiar with. Arizona has the best record in the National League and they look the part. They're going to be fired up for this game with a little extra energy than usual. Zack Godley is an under-the-radar pitcher that should be a good bet in 2018. The Nationals are struggling to score runs without Daniel Murphy, Ryan Zimmerman and Adam Eaton on the disabled list. Jeremy Hellickson goes for Washington. He's been good in the early going, but he's been fortunate with a .237 BABIP and 80% strand rate. Regression is coming for the 31-year old right-hander. I like the Snakes to win this game at home and the price is right for a big 7-unit MLB selection. |
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05-13-18 | Giants v. Pirates -149 | 5-0 | Loss | -149 | 2 h 53 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #956 Pittsburgh Pirates over San Francisco Giants (1:35pm EST) No one gave the Pirates a chance before the season to be competitive. After trading away Gerrit Cole and Andrew McCutchen, everyone figured this would be a 70-win team. Instead, the Pirates are seven games above .500 in the early going and have more than held their own. The Pirates play in the difficult NL Central and have a +28 run differential in 2018. Right-hander Ivan Nova has been solid since he was acquired from the Yankees in 2016. His ERA this season is a bit high at 4.84, but his peripherals show he should be in the low-4's. Nova's control has been excellent and he's a much better pitcher than the Giants' Derek Holland. It's hard to believe that Holland still has a job in the big leagues. He owns a 5.66 ERA this season in 35 innings of work. Last season he checked in with a 6.20 ERA and the two seasons before that he posted ERA's just below 5.00. If Holland gets blasted today, this could be the last start of his career. Play the Pirates at home this afternoon. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-12-18 | Mariners -110 v. Tigers | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
6-unit Play Take #933 Seattle Mariners over Detroit Tigers (7:35pm EST) The Detroit Tigers have been a mediocre ballclub so far in 2018, but don't expect it to last. This team is bad and they still could lose 100 games despite a decent start. Miguel Cabrera has been on the disabled list for a while and the offense just isn't the same without him. Age has caught up with this team and I've been looking to fade them at reasonable prices. On Saturday the Mariners are in Detroit with Felix Hernandez taking the hill. King Felix is no longer the same. He's 4-3 with a 5.28 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in his eight starts and his strikeouts are down and walks up. This is about as bad as it has been for him in his career, so I'm buying low. I expect King Felix to bear down and show some improvement, especially against a weak-hitting Tigers lineup. Take the Mariners at the cheap price in our big 6-unit MLB play. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-12-18 | Braves -135 v. Marlins | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
5-unit Play Take #907 Atlanta Braves over Miami Marlins (7:10pm EST) The Atlanta Braves have arrived and I think they're here to stay. They have a dynamic young lineup without any major weaknesses. Youngsters Ozzie Albies and Ronald Acuna have been fantastic at the top of the order and Freddie Freeman and Nick Markakis are hitting well in the third and fourth spots. The Braves are tops in the NL in runs scored and I think they can maintain it. Miami is on pace for over 100 losses and I think things are going to get even worse. They're dealing with a roster full of guys that should be in Triple-A. I like the Braves' starting pitcher Michael Soroka. The 20-year old has been solid (3.27 xFIP) in two starts and the league is going to struggle against him the first time they see him. Miami's Jarlin Garcia has also been good in his rookie campaign, but he's coming off of a start against the Cubs where he gave up seven runs in four innings of work. Play the Braves today. |
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05-12-18 | Giants v. Pirates -127 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
5-unit Play Take #906 Pittsburgh Pirates over San Francisco Giants (7:05pm EST) Something happened to Jeff Samardzija a few seasons ago and he just hasn't been able to regain his old form. He has a 6.62 ERA in 17.2 innings this season. Samardzija is walking 6.6 batters per nine and that's not going to cut it at the big league - or any level for that matter. The Giants are an aging team and I don't think their lineup is dynamic enough to compete in today's baseball. The Pirates have played steady baseball all season long and are just a game out of first place in the tough NL Central. Take Pittsburgh at home with the small price tag. |
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05-10-18 | Braves -120 v. Marlins | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 25 h 43 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #903 Atlanta Braves over Miami Marlins (7:10pm EST)  Don’t look now but the Atlanta Braves are leading the NL East and have the best run differential in the National League. They’ve done it with their youngsters, led by Ozzie Albies and Ronald Acuna. Albies already has 10 home runs and Acuna is hitting nearly .330 and has shown some pop as well. Don’t forget that this team also has Freddie Freeman in the middle of the order and Nick Markakis, who is putting up MVP-type numbers in the early going. Add in some role players like Ender Inciarte, Kurt Suzuki and the newly-promoted Jose Bautista, and you have one hell of a lineup. Mike Foltynewicz takes the mound on Thursday against the Marlins. Folty is having a solid season at 2-2 with a 3.65 ERA while striking out 10.5 batters per nine innings. Miami doesn’t have the worst record in baseball at the moment, but I’m confident they will at season’s end. There are just too many players on this roster that belong in Triple-A. Caleb Smith goes for the Marlins and he’s been pitching really well of late. However, any time you can fade the Marlins at a price this low, you have to strongly consider it. I like Atlanta on Thursday. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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05-09-18 | Diamondbacks +111 v. Dodgers | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 39 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #959 Arizona Diamondbacks over Los Angeles Dodgers (10:10pm EST)  Since the second half of last season, the Diamondbacks have been a much better baseball team than the Dodgers. They’ve built up an eight-game lead in the NL West this season and I’m convinced that Arizona is going to maintain that position for most of the season. They have the better pitching staff and the offenses are close to a wash. The Diamondbacks have also been tremendous defensively and I like the back-end of their bullpen more than the Dodgers. Patrick Corbin takes the mound in Los Angeles on Wednesday to face the Dodgers. Corbin has been nothing short of amazing in 2018. He’s 4-0 in seven starts while posting a 2.15 ERA and 0.76 WHIP. He has 60 strikeouts versus just nine walks on the season and hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of his seven starts. Alex Wood pitches for the Dodgers in this one. Wood has been solid but not spectacular in 2018. He’s 0-3 with a 3.83 ERA and has good peripheral numbers. However, Corbin is the better pitcher and the Diamondbacks are the better overall team. The wrong team is favored in this one, so we’re on Arizona. |
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05-09-18 | Tigers v. Rangers -137 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 3 h 14 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #962 Texas Rangers over Detroit Tigers (2:05pm EST) The records don't show it, but the Rangers are a better baseball team than the Tigers. It's still early where sample sizes aren't big enough to make any conclusions. Texas has been pretty banged up in the early going and now the Tigers are dealing with a big injury to Miguel Cabrera. Not having Miggy in the lineup is a huge loss for Detroit and I don't think the betting markets are fully taking it into account. Bartolo Colon gets the ball for Texas today and he's been great in 2018. The 44-year old owns a 3.29 ERA and has only walked three batters in his 38.1 innings of work. He clearly knows how to pitch because his stuff is nothing special at his age. Detroit goes with Francisco Liriano - a guy that actually has decent stuff but has never been much of a ?pitcher.? I like the Rangers at home in this game. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-08-18 | Mariners -119 v. Blue Jays | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #915 Seattle Mariners over Toronto Blue Jays (7:05pm EST) This one is all about James Paxton. He's one of the best pitchers in baseball that you don't hear about. Any time you can get him in this price range, you have to consider pulling the trigger. Play the M's over the Jays here with Paxton on the hill. |
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05-08-18 | Red Sox +187 v. Yankees | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #911 Boston Red Sox over New York Yankees (7:05pm EST) The best rivalry in baseball is featured today as the Yankees host the Red Sox. When these two teams get together, a lot of the numbers can be thrown out of the window. That's one of the reasons that I think the betting line on this game is ridiculous. The Red Sox are 25-9 on the season and the Yanks are still nearly two-dollar favorites. Yes the Yankees have been on fire, but how about what the Red Sox have done? Drew Pomeranz and Luis Severino battle in this contest. That looks like a big edge for New York, but it's not as big as it appears. Take Boston at the sweet price. |
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05-07-18 | Tigers v. Rangers +107 | 6-7 | Win | 107 | 21 h 15 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #960 Texas Rangers over Detroit Tigers (8:05pm EST) Don’t be fooled by the mediocre play of the Detroit Tigers in the early going. This isn’t a mediocre team. They are an extremely bad team that has been exceeding expectations. They’ve started to regress recently and the injury to Miguel Cabrera has been big. He changes the entire lineup and he’ll be out of action on Monday as well. That’s good news for Texas starter Matt Moore. It hasn’t been pretty for Moore over the last couple of seasons, but I think there’s value on him following his worst performance of his career last time out. Moore gave up 10 earned runs in just four innings on 11 hits in Cleveland. It was ugly and the type of performance that is going to have bettors running the other way. Buying low is a strategy that has proven to work in baseball and this is a terrific spot to demonstrate it. Play the Rangers at home as a small favorite. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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05-06-18 | Marlins v. Reds -109 | 8-5 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 18 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #910 Cincinnati Reds over Miami Marlins (4:10pm EST) Dan Straily makes his second start of the season on Sunday afternoon in Cincinnati. Straily missed most of April with a right forearm strain. In his first outing, Straily was downright awful. He yielded four runs in four innings while walking four batters and striking out just one. It looks like he’s going to need a couple more starts to shake off the rust. The Marlins have the worst roster in baseball and I’m confident that they’ll be at the very bottom of the standings come September. Half of the guys on the big league club should be playing in Triple-A. Right now the Reds are at the bottom of the league, but they have had some positive signs recently. The lineup has been better of late and I think the firing of their manager was a wake-up call of sorts for the Reds. Take Cincinnati at home in this one. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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05-05-18 | Pirates v. Brewers -101 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #956 Milwaukee Brewers over Pittsburgh Pirates (7:10pm EST) It appears as if the betting markets assume that last season was a fluke for the Brewers. They won 86 games last season and they added Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich with minimal losses. They're on pace for an even better 2018 campaign, but the markets just aren't buying. Milwaukee is a home underdog tonight in a game against an overachieving Pirates team. It's not like Pirates' starter Jameson Taillon is blowing hitters away this season. He has a 4.83 ERA and has struggled with the home run ball. Jhoulys Chacin gets the ball for the Brew Crew. He has struggled in 2018 but not many more than Taillon has. The wrong team is favored in this game. Take Milwaukee here. |
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05-05-18 | Marlins v. Reds -118 | 6-0 | Loss | -118 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #958 Cincinnati Reds over Miami Marlins (7:10pm EST) The Cincinnati Reds have the worst record in the sport, but they're not the worst team in baseball. That honor would go to the Miami Marlins. The Marlins have the worst run differential in the National League and are fielding a roster filled with minor leaguers. It's only going to get worse for Miami, while I see some near-term promise for the Reds. Caleb Smith and Tyler Mahle match up in this contest and there's no big advantage either way there. Take the Reds at home today at a discounted price. |
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05-05-18 | Giants v. Braves -144 | 11-2 | Loss | -144 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #964 Atlanta Braves over San Francisco Giants (7:10pm EST) I wasn't earlier this season, but I'm not a believer in the Atlanta Braves. Ozzie Albies is the real deal at 21 years of age and phenom 20-year old Ronald Acuna is even better. The future is bright in Atlanta, but so is the present. Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis, Ender Inciarte, Dansby Swanson and more all round out a great lineup that is producing better than just about anyone in the National League. The Braves go with Brandon McCarthy is this one and I think he's an underrated starting pitcher. He's 4-0 with a 3.09 ERA and has had a decent career bouncing around the league. The Giants are just too old to compete on a daily basis. It's going to get a lot worse for them before it gets better. The Braves are the much better team and I think they take this one easily. |
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05-05-18 | Twins -105 v. White Sox | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #971 Minnesota Twins over Chicago White Sox (7:10pm EST) It hasn't been going well for Twins starter Lance Lynn. He comes into Saturday's start with a horrid 8.37 ERA and is walking 8.8 batters per nine innings. But there are some signs that it's going to turn. Lynn has yielded a .349 BABIP and is stranding just 65% of runners. Both of those figures should regress to the mean and lower Lynn's ERA. He'll go up against a weak White Sox lineup that is 13th in the American League in runs scored and hitting just .242 on the season. Left-hander Hector Santiago is slated to go for Chicago. He's come out of the bullpen for most of the season and has put together a solid 3.48 ERA. However, his peripherals aren't nearly as good and his xFIP is 5.37. Starting is also tougher than coming out for just an inning. The Twins are the much better team and I think they earn the win behind Lynn on Saturday. |
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05-05-18 | Tigers v. Royals -141 | 3-2 | Loss | -141 | 5 h 11 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #968 Kansas City Royals over Detroit Tigers (4:15pm EST) The Detroit Tigers are off to a halfway decent start but don't expect it to last. They just have too many holes in the lineup and there aren't many guys you can trust on the pitching staff. You certainly can't trust today's starter Jordan Zimmermann. He comes in with a 5.81 ERA, and that's an improvement over what he did last season (6.08 ERA). The Royals aren't playing particularly well, but I think there's value in buying them low right now. Salvador Perez is back in the lineup and that's a big boost both offensively and defensively. Play Kansas City. |
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05-04-18 | Dodgers -113 v. Padres | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #913 Los Angeles Dodgers over San Diego Padres (9:10pm EST) If you don't know the name Walker Buehler yet, you better brush up. The talented young hurler for the Dodgers has some wicked stuff, including one of the better curveballs that you'll see. He's put up some nice numbers (1.80 ERA and 9.9 strikeouts per nine) in his first two starts of his career and I expect him to have a big advantage the first time through the league. The Padres counter with a young gun of their own in Joey Lucchesi. He has a 2.78 ERA in six starts, but five of those outings were in pitcher's parks. The Dodgers have been scuffling in the early going, so this is an opportunity to get them at a cheap price. Take Los Angeles at the low price here. |
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05-04-18 | Tigers v. Royals -127 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
5-unit Play Take #924 Kansas City Royals over Detroit Tigers (8:15pm EST) Right now the Detroit Tigers are ahead of the Kansas City Royals in the standings. Don't expect it to last. Detroit has gotten some great production from the pitching staff this season, but many of the guys on the staff are outpitching their peripherals. That's the case for Friday's starter Francisco Liriano. The veteran left-hander is 3-1 with a 3.38 ERA in 29.1 innings of work. However, his opponents have a .215 BABIP and that's not sustainable. Liriano's xFIP is 4.88 and that's more in line with his ERA numbers over the last two seasons. Kansas City has Salvador Perez back in the lineup and that's a huge boost to a team that has been struggling. Ian Kennedy has improved his numbers from last season and I think he can be a stalwart in the Royals rotation this season. This line is about 10-15 cents too short, so we're on Kansas City. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-04-18 | Pirates v. Brewers -106 | 6-4 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
2-unit Play Take #910 Milwaukee Brewers over Pittsburgh Pirates (8:10pm EST) Nick Kingham too a perfect game into the 7th inning in the last game and instantly made a name for himself. Now that everyone has been put on notice, it's time to fade the rookie hurler. The betting lines are treating Kingham like he's a top-level prospect. But the fact is that Kingham has been in the minor leagues for eight years and is 26 years of age. His stuff isn't flashy and it's now even known he can be a big-league pitcher yet. The Brewers counter with Junior Guerra in Friday's matchup. It looks like Guerra might be rounding back into the form he was in two years ago. The right-hander has a 0.82 ERA in four starts and looks confident on the hill. It's surprising that his line isn't considerably higher. Take Milwaukee at home. |
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05-04-18 | Red Sox v. Rangers +170 | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #920 Texas Rangers over Boston Red Sox (8:05pm EST) Bartolo Colon is doing some amazing things at 44 years of age. He's 1-0 with a 2.87 ERA in 31.1 innings and came close to throwing a perfect game against the vaunted Astros. He's not going to be intimidated against a hot hitting Boston lineup today. This is just too big of a home underdog price to pass up on. Take Texas in this one. |
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05-04-18 | Giants v. Braves -143 | 9-4 | Loss | -143 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #908 Atlanta Braves over San Francisco Giants (7:35pm EST) The Atlanta Braves have arrived. Ozzie Albies has turned into a force to be reckoned with in the National League and Ronald Acuna looks like he's going to be even better. Add in one of the most underrated hitters in the game in Freddie Freeman and some nice role players like Ender Inciarte, Nick Markakis and Dansby Swanson, and you have one of the best hitting teams in baseball. It's clear that the Braves' future is bright and that future is already underway in 2018. On the other end of the spectrum is the San Francisco Giants. This is a team on the decline. They're going to be amongst the dregs of the league in a couple of years. Mike Foltynewicz gets the ball for the Braves against Chris Stratton for the Giants. That's an edge for Atlanta. I think the Braves are the right side here. |
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05-03-18 | Tigers v. Royals -111 | 6-10 | Win | 100 | 4 h 49 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #960 Kansas City Royals over Detroit Tigers (2:15pm EST) The Tigers have a lot better record than the Royals do right now, but I'm fairly confident that won't be the case come season's end. The Royals have the better pitching staff and getting Salvador Perez back in the lineup is bigger than most people realize. Miguel Cabrera is banged up for Detroit and could miss today's game. The line should be 20 cents higher, so we're all over Kansas City. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-02-18 | Padres +128 v. Giants | 4-9 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 36 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #903 San Diego Padres over San Francisco Giants (3:45pm EST) I see a big pitching edge this afternoon in this one. The Padres send Clayton Richard to the mound and the Giants go with Derek Holland. Their numbers are similar so far in 2018, but don't expect that to last. Holland is really struggling out there and his stuff has deteriorated. Richard hasn't looked great, but he's gone up against some tough lineups and hasn't gotten much help defensively. The Padres are closer to the Giants than what the betting markets rate them. Go San Diego today. |
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05-01-18 | A's +105 v. Mariners | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #977 Oakland A's over Seattle Mariners (10:10pm EST) Felix Hernandez is a King no more. He's on the downside of his career and it's going get worse. He comes into today's matchup against the A's with a 4.96 ERA and his strikeouts per nine is down to 7.1 in a season where K's are all the rage. It's tough to ignore what Oakland has done this season. They could be legitimate Wild Card contenders as their young group is growing up fast. I like the A's in the underdog role against an aging Felix. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-01-18 | Orioles v. Angels -173 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #976 Los Angeles Angels over Baltimore Orioles (10:05pm EST) If you're making a list of the worst performing starting pitchers of 2018 so far, Alex Cobb has to be near the top of the list. The Orioles off-season acquisition has a 13.11 ERA and a 2.83 WHIP in his three starts. Cobb has just four strikeouts and has given up 20 runs. Today he'll face a vastly improved Angels lineup featuring Shohei Ohtani. The Angels counter with Nick Tropeano and I love his arsenal of pitches. Take the Halos to come out on top today. |
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05-01-18 | Yankees +156 v. Astros | 4-0 | Win | 156 | 21 h 0 m | Show | |
 4-unit Play Take #971 New York Yankees over Houston Astros (8:10pm EST) Tuesday’s game in Houston features what I think could be the ALCS matchup come October. The Yankees and Astros are both off to great starts and they have the rosters to sustain it. Justin Verlander toes the rubber for Houston and he’s been terrific at 4-0 with a 1.36 ERA and 10.9 strikeouts per nine innings. He’s fit in well with the Astros, but he’s also been very fortunate so far in 2018. Verlander is stranding a ridiculously high 95% of runners and hitters have managed just a .198 BABIP against him. Both of those numbers are going to regress heavily going forward. Verlander’s xFIP is 3.55 and I think that’s more indicative of the pitcher he is at this point in his career. Jordan Montgomery goes for the Yanks. He’s been very solid at 2-0 with a 3.76 ERA in 26.1 innings of work this season. New York won’t ask him to win the game for them. He just needs to keep them in it so the Yanks can take advantage of their strong bullpen late. The Yankees have won nine straight games (through Sunday) as well, so there’s that. Play New York in the underdog role on Tuesday.
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04-30-18 | Padres +138 v. Giants | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #911 San Diego Padres over San Francisco Giants (10:15pm EST) The San Francisco Giants got themselves back to the .500 mark yesterday, but there are still many signs of trouble. They've been outscored by 19 runs overall for the season and the offense has really struggled to get it going. The additions of Andrew McCutchen and Evan Longoria haven't paid dividends yet. This is one of the oldest teams in MLB and I think it's going to just get worse as the season goes on. The Padres are off to a slow 10-19 start, but I see signs of life and improvement along the way. Today's starter Eric Lauer didn't have a good showing in his major league debut in Coors Field. But that's understandable and I think Lauer bounces back in a much more pitcher-friendly park. Jeff Samardzija gets the ball for the Giants. He's had two shaky outings in a row and has walked seven batters in 8.2 innings of work. I don't think Samardzija has shaken all the rust of from his injury just yet. Play San Diego here. |
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04-30-18 | Blue Jays v. Twins -115 | 7-5 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #922 Minnesota Twins over Toronto Blue Jays (8:10pm EST) The Blue Jays are off to a strong start to the 2018 campaign, but don't count me in as a believer. With Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki down, the Jays have been making it work with production from a lot of guys who are still unproven. Their offense has been on a tear, but I don't see it continuing. The Twins, meanwhile, are just 1-9 in their last 10 games and the pitching has really gotten pounded. Despite these trends, money has come in strong on the Twins today. That's a good indication given the circumstances. Take Minnesota at home. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-29-18 | Diamondbacks v. Nationals -118 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 10 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #954 Washington Nationals over Arizona Diamondbacks (1:35pm EST) The Washington Nationals are a banged up team right now. They’re without Daniel Murphy and Anthony Rendon as well as a couple of pitcher as well. The good news is that Adam Eaton is slated to be back for Sunday’s game. Bryce Harper hasn’t been seeing many good pitches to hit without his normal protection, but there’s nothing wrong with taking walks. Robbie Ray goes for the D-Backs in this one and he’s been struggling in the early going. Ray has a 5.13 ERA and has walked 17 batters in 26.1 innings. On the other side is Gio Gonzalez for the Nats. Gonzalez is putting up solid numbers once again with a 3.04 ERA while striking out nearly 10 batters per nine innings. He’s 32 years old but hasn’t lost his stuff yet. I think Washington’s injuries are getting overly adjusted in this line. Take the Nationals to win this game at home. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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04-28-18 | Dodgers -117 v. Giants | 3-8 | Loss | -117 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
2-unit Play Take #913 Los Angeles Dodgers over San Francisco Giants (10:05pm EST) Walker Buehler and Chris Stratton are scheduled to go for the first game of the doubleheader between the Dodgers and Giants. It's hard not to love Buehler's stuff. He throws extremely hard and has a tremendous curve ball to pair along with it. I think the league is going to struggle against Buehler the first time through. His stuff is not easy to pick up and he seems comfortable on the mound at just 23 years of age. The Giants have really been struggling to plate runs, even after the additions of Andrew McCutchen and Evan Longoria. They're dead last in the NL in runs scored and I'm not sure how this aging team turns it around. Play the Dodgers in Game 1 of the doubleheader behind Buehler. |
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04-28-18 | Tigers v. Orioles -113 | 9-5 | Loss | -113 | 25 h 14 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #922 Baltimore Orioles over Detroit Tigers (7:05pm EST) It’s been a miserable start to the season for the Baltimore Orioles. They’re in the cellar of the AL East and they’re only winning about a quarter of their games. It’s going to get better. In fact, it really can’t get much worse. The lineup is surprisingly struggling to plate runs for the O’s. I think they get it going soon, especially at home where their lineup usually thrives. With the Tigers in town, Baltimore should get some pretty good hacks in. Francisco Liriano goes for Detroit. He’s been solid thus far at 2-1 with a 3.13 ERA but his peripherals point to problems. Liriano is walking 4.7 batters per nine innings and has a 4.70 FIP. Regression is coming. The O’s counter with Andrew Cashner, who also has been fortunate to earn himself a 3.60 ERA. However, I believe in Cashner as he’s only 31 years old and has shown some flashes after a couple of injury-riddled seasons. Before the season, this line would have been at least 20 cents higher. We’ll buy low on the Orioles right now and sell the Tigers decent start. Take Baltimore. |
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04-28-18 | A's +195 v. Astros | 0-11 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
2-unit Play Take #923 Oakland A's over Houston Astros (7:10pm EST) The Houston Astros are playing great baseball. Everyone expected it and they're getting the job done. That starting rotation has been ridiculous. Three of the five guys have sub-2.00 ERA's and Keuchel is still at a very respectable 3.10 ERA. The fifth guy is today's starter Lance McCullers Jr. The 26-year old right-hander owns a 4.67 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in five starts. His control has been spotty and he hasn't faced that tough of competition so far - the Rangers, Padres, Twins, Mariners and White Sox. The A's might be the toughest lineup he's seen all season and they are swinging the bats really well right now. Oakland is 9-2 in their last 11 games. The A's are also two games above .500 on the season despite going up against a pretty tough schedule to start the season. Daniel Mengden goes for the A's today. Mengden has come into his own this season. In five starts, he has a 3.86 ERA and a 2.81 FIP. He has walked just three batters in 30.1 innings and has been able to avoid the home run ball. This line is at least 15 cents too high, so we're on the underdog A's. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-27-18 | White Sox v. Royals -115 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 3 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #976 Kansas City Royals over Chicago White Sox (8:15pm EST) The Kansas City Royals aren’t the same team they’ve been in recent years. They lost their two best players from last year’s roster in Eric Hosmer and Lorenzo Cain. They were also without Salvador Perez for some time, who just came back from an injury. Getting Perez back was big and they still have Mike Moustakas, who is putting up phenomenal numbers so far. Kansas City has the worst record in the American League, but I don’t expect that to continue. That’s because their opponent on Friday, the Chicago White Sox, are worse. Chicago has one of the youngest teams in baseball and there are holes all over the roster. They’re on the right track from a rebuilding standpoint, but it’s going to get worse before it gets better. The Royals have a big edge on the mound here with Danny Duffy going up against Reynaldo Lopez. Duffy has started slow, but he’s one of the more underrated arms in the league. Lopez comes in with a 1.50 ERA in four starts, but he’s been extremely fortunate. He has a 4.23 FIP and a 5.01 xFIP. He’s stranded a ridiculous 91% of runners and has a 7% HR/FB rate – both of which are unsustainable. Take Kansas City here at home. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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04-27-18 | Rangers +136 v. Blue Jays | 6-4 | Win | 136 | 6 h 7 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #967 Texas Rangers over Toronto Blue Jays (7:05pm EST) This is a play mostly based on Mike Minor, who is off to a nice start for Texas. I think he has the chance to be a legitimate #2 man in the rotation with his stuff if he stays healthy. The Blue Jays are without Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki - two of their best players. The Rangers are beat up a little bit too, but this line is about 15 cents too high. Take the Rangers. |
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04-26-18 | Rays v. Orioles -116 | 9-5 | Loss | -116 | 6 h 4 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #914 Baltimore Orioles (-120) over Tampa Bay Rays (7:05pm EST) The only way you're going to see that there's value on the Orioles on Thursday night is if you believe that Dylan Bundy is a much better pitcher than Chris Archer. Count me in as a believer. Bundy has finally realized the potential that O's fans have been talking about for over three years. He enters this game with a 1.42 ERA and a 2.00 FIP. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is 40-9 and he looks as confident as ever on the mound. Archer, meanwhile, seems lost on a terrible Rays team. His ERA is sitting at 6.59 and his strikeout rate is down significantly from the last two years. He'll face a tough Orioles lineup that is built for Camden Yards. Both teams have really struggled offensively, but I trust Baltimore's bats much more in this game. Play the Orioles. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-25-18 | Cubs +117 v. Indians | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 60 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #977 Chicago Cubs over Cleveland Indians (7:10pm EST) The Chicago Cubs aren’t off to the best start this season from a record perspective, but the underlying numbers are solid. The Cubs have the third best run differential in the National League and have been without Anthony Rizzo for a good part of April. Rizzo is back in the lineup now and the Cubs have been clicking since he has. The Cubs are built to compete in an American League park with Kyle Schwarber as the designated hitter, which allows them to line things up better from a defensive standpoint and get more playing time from their strong bench. Jon Lester goes for the Cubs on Wednesday and he’s coming off of his best performance of the season against the Cardinals (six innings, no earned runs, two hits and a walk, seven strikeouts). The Indians counter with Trevor Bauer, who has been solid but his still having some control issues. You don’t see the Cubs as an underdog at this price often, so we’re going with them Wednesday versus the Tribe. |
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04-25-18 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies -107 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #958 Philadelphia Phillies over Arizona Diamondbacks (7:05pm EST) It didn't take long for Jake Arrieta to get acclimated to his new team. The 32-year old right-hander is 2-0 with a 2.04 ERA in three starts with the Phillies coming into Wednesday. He'll go up against a Diamondbacks lineup that has been struggling to score runs of late. Arizona is 11th in the National League in runs scored and is hitting just .225 as a team. Zack Greinke gets the ball for the D-Backs. He hasn't looked very sharp in 2018 overall and his two road starts were especially bad. Greinke has a 7.15 ERA on the road, where he has struggled for years. There may be no pitcher in baseball that has wider home/road splits than Greinke over the last five years. The Phillies are 13-4 in their last 17 games and we like them again today. |
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04-23-18 | A's -123 v. Rangers | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 25 h 59 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #963 Oakland A’s over Texas Rangers (8:05 pm EST) The Texas Rangers are a banged up unit right now. They’re missing their double play combination of Rougned Odor and Elvis Andrus along with a few arms from their pitching staff. They’ve had to plug several guys into the lineup who just aren’t ready and it’s led to a rough 8-15 start to the 2018 campaign. On Monday, Texas lefty Matt Moore toes the rubber against the A’s. Moore has fallen apart in recent years and it’s surprising that he’s still making starts in the big leagues every five days. Moore posted a 5.43 ERA in 2015, a 4.08 ERA in 2016, a 5.52 ERA in 2017 and has started 2018 with a 5.59 ERA. His control has gotten gradually worse and there doesn’t seem to be any signs of hope for the 28-year old. Meanwhile, the A’s are off to a solid 11-11 start and have won six of their last seven overall (including two of three over Boston). Both their pitching and hitting are clicking right now. Trevor Cahill goes for Oakland and he’s coming off of a really nice effort the last time out versus the White Sox (7 innings, 0 runs, 5 hits and 8 strikeouts). Oakland is the right side in Monday’s game. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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04-21-18 | Nationals -112 v. Dodgers | 0-4 | Loss | -112 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #963 Washington Nationals over Los Angeles Dodgers (9:10pm EST) Stephen Strasburg has finally reached the elite level. He's always been high on potential, but last year he put it all together going 15-4 with a 2.52 ERA. He's going to be close to an auto-bet for me with lines this low, especially against struggling teams like the Dodgers. Play the Nationals here at the short price. |
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04-21-18 | Blue Jays v. Yankees -143 | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 16 h 35 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #966 New York Yankees (-145) over Toronto Blue Jays (1:05pm EST) I’m not a believer in the Toronto Blue Jays. They’re off to a fantastic 12-6 start to the season, but there are several guys in the lineup putting up unsustainable numbers. The Jays are third in the AL in home runs, but are led by Yangervis Solarte (4), Aledmys Diaz (4) and Steve Pearce (3). Those guys aren’t going to keep connecting on dingers at that kind of rate. The Yankees are a little banged up right now and it’s hurt their early season performance. However, the offense has stepped it up in recent games and Giancarlo Stanton and Gary Sanchez aren’t going to bat near the Mendoza line all season long. They get to tee of on Marcus Stroman on Saturday afternoon. The young right-hander comes in with a 7.98 ERA and has had horrible control in the early going. He’s walked 10 batters in 14.2 innings of work and his velocity is down significantly since last season. Jordan Montgomery has been solid for the Yanks, but it’s the bullpen behind him that is the real asset. So far New York has a mediocre 4.30 bullpen ERA. By season’s end, they’ll be near the top five in the baseball. There’s just too many talented, hard-throwing relievers. We’re selling high on the Blue Jays and buying low on the Yanks. Take New York at home on Saturday. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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04-20-18 | Nationals v. Dodgers -138 | 5-2 | Loss | -138 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #914 Los Angeles Dodgers over Washington Nationals (10:10pm EST) It's not often you can bet Clayton Kershaw at home for a price this low. Kershaw has been his usual dominant self so far this season, posting a 1.73 ERA and striking out 10.7 batters per nine. On the other side if Max Scherzer and the Nationals. Scherzer has been dominant as well with a 1.33 ERA in his four starts. The offense probably won't muster much today, but I'm much more confident in Kershaw throwing up zeros in Dodgers Stadium. One run could win this game and I like Los Angeles. |
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04-20-18 | Giants v. Angels -134 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -134 | 28 h 32 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #930 Los Angeles Angels over San Francisco Giants (10:05pm EST) The San Francisco Giants had big problems scoring runs last season. They finished 14th in the National League in runs scored last year. So they decided to add Andrew McCutchen and Evan Longoria in the offseason in an effort to shore up the offense. It hasn’t worked. The Giants are now dead last in the National League in runs scored and McCutchen and Longoria have played poorly. This is an aging team that has finally hit the proverbial wall in their playing careers. On the other hand, the Angels have been sparked by Shohei Ohtani and the team is off to a great 13-5 start. There are no longer any holes in the lineup and Mike Trout doesn’t have to do it all by himself. Andrew Heaney goes to the hill for the Halos on Friday. Heaney has been injured for the majority of the last two seasons and now he’s as healthy as he has been since 2015 when he posted a 3.49 ERA in 18 starts. He struck out seven batters in five innings of work in his only start this season and I think he’s going to be an asset to the Angels’ rotation. Derek Holland goes for the Giants. Holland doesn’t deserve a spot in a big-league rotation, but when Madison Bumgarner went down with an injury, San Francisco was desperate. Holland has a terrible 4.60 ERA in three starts this season, despite all of them being played in strong pitcher-friendly parks. He won’t last much longer in the rotation. Take the Angels in our MLB Game of the Week. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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04-20-18 | Indians v. Orioles +109 | 1-3 | Win | 109 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
5-unit Play Take #918 Baltimore Oriole over Cleveland Indians (7:05pm EST) Dylan Bundy is an ace. There, I said it. The betting markets aren't valuing him like one yet, but Bundy has turned the corner in a big way so far in 2018. The young right-hander has 1.40 ERA in 25.2 innings of work this season and is striking out 10.9 batters per nine innings. His swinging strike percentage has jumped from 11.4% to 16.3% and he looks much more comfortable on the mound. Trevor Bauer is off to a good start to the season for the Tribe, but I'm not fully buying it. He's been marred by inconsistency throughout his career and he still has control problems frequently. The O's are a tough out at home in Camden Yards with their powerful lineup. The Indians were just in Puerto Rico and played a marathon game with the Twins that lasted 16 innings. They had the day off yesterday, but I still think there could be some lingering fatigue. Play Baltimore. |
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04-18-18 | Red Sox +111 v. Angels | Top | 9-0 | Win | 111 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #925 Boston Red Sox over Los Angeles Angels (10:05pm EST) Two teams off to hot starts will square off in Anaheim as the Angels host the Red Sox. The Angels are an impressive 13-4 to open the 2018 campaign and have a +39 run differential. The Red Sox are even better at 14-2 with a +51 run differential. Much of the success of the Angels is because of phenom Shohei Ohtani. The Halos are 10-1 in games in which he appears as a hitter or pitcher. Without him, just 3-3 overall. Ohtani won't be in the lineup tonight due to a blister problem. The BoSox go with Rick Porcello and he's been amazing this season, going 3-0 with a 1.83 ERA in 19.2 innings of work. Tyler Skaggs has been equally as good for the Angels going 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA in 16 innings. I believe more in Porcello and I think Boston sports the better lineup as well. And with no Ohtani, the Angels are a mediocre bunch. Take the Red Sox tonight. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-17-18 | Dodgers v. Padres +172 | 7-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #964 San Diego Padres over Los Angeles Dodgers (10:10pm EST) It's been a tough start to the season for the Los Angeles Dodgers, but it should be a huge surprise. We've seen how a deep playoff run can affect teams early on in the following season. The Dodgers will get it going at some point, but right now they're a fade or a pass. The Padres aren't off to the start they wanted, but I still think this team is miles better than the version over the last couple of season. Eric Hosmer (should be in the lineup today after back issues) brings some veteran leadership to a team that needs it, along with plenty of energy and enthusiasm. Alex Wood is slated to go for Los Angeles, and I think he's overrated after a career year in 2017. There's no way he's touching anything close to 16-3 with a 2.72 ERA this year. In fact, he carries a 5.09 ERA from his first three starts into today's outing. This line is about 15-20 cents too high, so we're on the Pads. |
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04-17-18 | Astros v. Mariners +170 | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #978 Seattle Mariners over Houston Astros (10:10pm EST) We've been against the Astros often this year and have been very successful. We faded the Astros the last two night and came way victorious both times, including as a +290 underdog with Texas and Bartolo Colon. Tonight, we do it again as we ride the Mariners as home underdogs. Until these prices calm down, we'll continued fading Houston. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-17-18 | Cardinals v. Cubs -121 | 5-3 | Loss | -121 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
2-unit Play Take #960 Chicago Cubs over St. Louis Cardinals (8:05pm EST) This game was originally scheduled for Monday but was postponed until Tuesday night. Adam Wainwright is no longer a big-league pitcher, but the Cardinals aren't willing to accept that reality. In 2016, the veteran right-hander posted a 4.62 ERA. In 2017, it increased to 5.11. In his first two starts of 2018, Wainwright has a 5.06 ERA. At 36 years of age, it's clear that Wainwright just doesn't have it anymore and needs to either try a bullpen role or hang it up. The Cards are still putting him out there, and the Cubs couldn't be happier. Chicago has lit Wainwright up in recent years and they'll get the chance to do it again Tuesday night. The temperature is going to be low in this one, but that didn't stop the Cubs from scoring 14 runs on Saturday against the Braves. The Cubbies came back from a 10-2 deficit in that game, and that could be the spark this team needs to get focused. Tyler Chatwood goes in this one and I think he's going to be one of the more underrated #5 guys in baseball. His numbers in Colorado were always skewed due to the altitude, but just look at his road numbers last season (3.49 ERA). The Cubs deserve to be bigger favorites on Tuesday. |
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04-16-18 | Astros v. Mariners +105 | 1-2 | Win | 105 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #922 Seattle Mariners over Houston Astros (10:10pm EST) We've done well going against the Astros in the early going and we'll continue to pick our spots against them throughout the early going. Tonight presents another great opportunity. After getting baffled by Bartolo Colon last night (he nearly threw a perfect game against them), they'll go up a sharply contrasting James Paxton. I think Paxton will eventually win a Cy Young. He throws about as hard as anyone coming from the left side and has some nasty movement. He doesn't get a ton of attention in Seattle, but this is a guy you could probably bet every time out and make money for the season. The Astros counter with Dallas Keuchel, who hasn't been sharp in his first three starts overall. Take Seattle as the home underdog. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-15-18 | Rangers +295 v. Astros | 3-1 | Win | 295 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #977 Texas Rangers over Houston Astros (8:05pm EST) We scored big with the Rangers yesterday in Houston as they came through in extra innings 6-5. Tonight the betting line is even higher with Justin Verlander on the hill for the Astros. Verlander has been locked in ever since he joined the Astros, but the line tonight is beyond reasonable for a game in mid-April. Yes, Texas is banged up and the Astros are loaded, but everyone already knows it. We'll go against the public and back the Rangers once again. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-14-18 | A's v. Mariners -106 | 8-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #928 Seattle Mariners over Oakland A's (9:10pm EST) The Mariners are flying under the radar this season in a big way. With the Angels doing what they're doing in the AL West, along with the defending World Champion Astros, no one is paying attention to Seattle. That will change in my opinion. The M's are off to a great 7-4 start and are getting contributors up and down the lineup. They're much better than the Oakland A's, who they host tonight. Kendall Graveman and Marco Gonzales toe the rubber in this one. I like Seattle. |
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04-14-18 | Phillies v. Rays -112 | 9-4 | Loss | -112 | 22 h 24 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #930 Tampa Bay Rays over Philadelphia Phillies (6:10pm EST) The Tampa Bay Rays haven’t gotten off to a great start but they have the one you can rely on going to the mound on Saturday. Chris Archer has a 5.94 ERA in his three starts so far in 2018, but he’s pitching much better than that. Archer is striking out a whopping 11.9 batters per nine innings and has a 3.22 xFIP. He’s been unfortunate in stranding only 64% of baserunners and has given up more home runs than normal. He’ll settle down and I think the Phillies are a team he matches up well against. The Phils counter with veteran Jake Arrieta. I don’t see Arrieta faring as well in a Phillies uniform. His stuff has been declining the last two years and he no longer has an excellent defense behind him backup him up. I don’t like the start that Philadelphia has had this season under new manager Gabe Kapler. Kapler has made some big errors in the early going and his team has made some comments indicating they’re not happy with him thus far. Tampa should be a tad better favorite in this game, so we’re on the Rays Saturday. |
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04-14-18 | Rangers +195 v. Astros | 6-5 | Win | 195 | 5 h 16 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #923 Texas Rangers over Houston Astros (4:05pm EST) The Rangers were the only team that believed in Mike Minor as a starting pitcher this offseason. After a season in which Minor was lights out of the bullpen, posting a 2.55 ERA, his suitors wanted him to stay put. However, Texas took a chance and so far, it's paying off. Minor has a 2.53 ERA in his first two starts and is striking out 10.1 batters per nine. He was effective years ago in the Braves rotation, and I think he can replicate that success. The Astros are clearly the best team in baseball, but the betting lines are way overcompensating for that fact. You don't make money betting on the team everyone knows is the best. You make money by finding good opportunities to bet against them. I like our chances today, so we're on Texas. |
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04-13-18 | Pirates -128 v. Marlins | 2-7 | Loss | -128 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
5-unit Play Take #959 Pittsburgh Pirates over Miami Marlins (7:10pm EST) It's a bad situation in Miami. The Marlins had one of the best outfields in the game last season with Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna and Christian Yelich. All three were traded away in the offseason. The Marlins are tearing it down once again and it's ugly this time. There are several players on the roster that are asking to be traded to a better situation. There is a lot of youth on the team and the focus isn't there. Chad Kuhl and the Pirates come to town on Friday. Kuhl has a 5.06 ERA in his first two starts, but that doesn't tell the story of how well he has pitched. Kuhl struck out 11 batters against just three walks in his 10.2 innings of work and has a 3.33 FIP. He has underrated stuff and I think Kuhl will be a good bet-on pitcher this season. Take the Pirates over the Marlins in our MLB Game of the Week. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-12-18 | Angels -134 v. Royals | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
2-unit Play Take #915 Los Angeles Angels over Kansas City Royals (8:15pm EST) Things are going well for the Angels. They have the best player in the world in Mike Trout, they are getting production from all over the lineup and Shohei Ohtani is hitting eighth in the order. On the other end of the spectrum, the Royals are really struggling without Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain and Salvador Perez (injured). This one is priced right for the Angels. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-12-18 | Pirates v. Cubs -162 | 6-1 | Loss | -162 | 19 h 49 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #912 Chicago Cubs over Pittsburgh Pirates (2:20pm EST) If you were to make a list of underappreciated starting pitchers in baseball, Kyle Hendricks would be near the top of the list.  While he doesn’t even register 90 mph on the radar gun, Hendricks holds the second-best career ERA amongst all active starting pitchers who qualify. He nearly won the Cy Young a couple of years back and is brilliant at inducing weak contact. He’ll go up against the Pirates on Thursday afternoon in Wrigley Field. Pittsburgh is off to a great start to the 2018 season, but they’ve played a pretty weak schedule and don’t figure to keep it up. Losing Andrew McCutchen and Gerrit Cole is going to hurt and they don’t have a ton of organizational depth. The Cubs are off to a mediocre start to the season, but this is their first home series as they had an awkward road trip to start the season. Take Chicago at home here. |
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04-11-18 | Reds +109 v. Phillies | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #959 Cincinnati Reds over Philadelphia Phillies (7:05pm EST) I'm a big believer in Luis Castillo for the Reds. He has a great arm and posted an impressive 3.12 ERA last season in 15 starts. He's off to a tough start, but it's not due to his stuff. He's still striking out nearly a batter an inning and looks confident on the hill. The Phils are sort of a mess with new manager Gabe Kapler really struggling early on in his career. Kapler has made several big mistakes and seems to be putting the stat sheet ahead of the players in the dugout. I don't think this marriage will end well. Take Cincinnati in the underdog role. |
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