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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-18-13 | Tampa Bay Rays +101 v. Baltimore Orioles | 10-6 | Win | 101 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #969 Tampa Bay Rays over Baltimore Orioles (4:05pm ET) The Tampa Bay Rays are playing good baseball winning seven of their last nine games after beating the Orioles 12-10 last night. Today they'll look to beat up on the Orioles again with right-hander Roberto Hernandez. I like what Hernandez has done so far this season as he has a solid K/BB ratio and has a groundball rate over 51%. He has given up a high rate of home runs, but he's definitely improved overall as a pitcher and this should end up being the best year of his career. The Rays always get the best out of their pitchers and they liked what they saw from Hernandez the moment he took the mound in the spring. On the other side is starter Jair Jurrjens, who was brought in during the offseason to fight for a rotation spot. He didn't win a job and was demoted to the minor leagues to open the season. He's getting a chance now due to some injuries in the Baltimore rotation, but it won't be easy for him to stay in the big leagues. He struggled mightily last season with the Braves with a 6.89 ERA and his stuff clearly wasn't the same after dealing with some injuries. He had mediocre results in the minors, so I'm not sure he's going to be able to return to his old form of a couple of years ago. Tampa Bay has been swinging the bats very well lately, so I'd be surprised to see Jurrjens get past five innings in this one. Take the Rays here.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-17-13 | Kansas City Royals -113 v. Oakland A's | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #925 Kansas City Royals over Oakland A's (10:05pm ET) Jarrod Parker hasn't been himself this season for the Oakland A's. He enters today's start at 2-5 with a 6.86 ERA and 1.84 WHIP in eight starts. His biggest problem has been his control, as he's walking 4.9 batters per nine innings and his strikeout rate has declined from last season. He's battled some neck injuries, which obviously is affecting him more than he is leading on. Today he goes up against a Royals team that is swinging the bats pretty well lately. In their last series in Anaheim, the Royals scored 22 runs as they took two of three from the Angels. Kansas City will also have their ace James Shields on the mound today and he probably won't need very much run support. Shields is one of the best in the American League and comes in with a 2.48 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in his first season with Kansas City. He's also great at going deep into games as he's averaging over seven innings per start. That makes it much easier for the Royals bullpen, which has some great arms at the backend. Until Parker shows that he's back to his form from last season, he's going to be on the fade list. With Shields going, you couldn't get a much bigger starting pitching edge for the Royals. Take Kansas City today as our 10-unit Game.
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05-17-13 | Tampa Bay Rays +105 v. Baltimore Orioles | 12-10 | Win | 105 | 8 h 0 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #919 Tampa Bay Rays over Baltimore Orioles (7:05pm ET) After a slow start to the season, the Tampa Bay Rays are finally starting to click. Despite dropping their last two games, they have won six of eight and are hitting the ball very well. They've average 5.9 runs per game over their last 17 contests and will look to keep it going against a struggling pitcher in Jason Hammel today. He has a 5-1 record on the season, but Hammel isn't pitching nearly as well as he did in 2012. His strikeout rate is down to 6.3 per nine innings from 8.6 last year. His walks are also up and he's not keeping the ball down like he has in the past. All of that has translated into a 4.93 ERA, which is a run and a half higher than last season. His career ERA is 4.78, so it's quite possible that last year was the aberration and that the Hammel were seeing this season is representative of the pitcher that he really is. I expect the Rays to jump on his early and for Jeremy Hellickson to pitch well enough to keep a dangerous Orioles lineup at bay. Take Tampa Bay here.
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05-15-13 | Boston Red Sox v. Tampa Bay Rays -118 | 9-2 | Loss | -118 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #922 Tampa Bay Rays over Boston Red Sox (7:10pm ET) We have a great pitching matchup today in Tampa as Jon Lester pitches for the Red Sox against David Price of the Rays. A quick glance at the numbers of these two and it looks like Lester (2.73 ERA) is pitching much better than Price (4.78 ERA). But a closer look at the peripheral statistics shows that both of these pitchers are in line with their career marks in K/BB ratio and their groundball percentages. Small sample sizes can yield some unusual results, and with just eight starts to your name a lot of weird numbers can pop out in regards to ERA. We know who each of these guys is by now and they are very similar in talent and ability with a small edge to Price. I think the ERA numbers are keeping this line down too low and I think getting Price at home as such a low price is a steal. Take the Rays here.
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05-15-13 | Seattle Mariners +110 v. New York Yankees | 12-2 | Win | 110 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #919 Seattle Mariners over New York Yankees (7:05pm ET) We've been riding the Hisashi Iwakuma train for quite some time and it's paid off handsomely. The 32-year old right-hander has only made 24 starts in his young career, but he's made all of them count. So far in 2013 he's been one of the best pitchers in the majors at 4-1 with a 1.74 ERA and 0.74 WHIP. He's done it by striking out nearly a batter per inning and rarely giving up a free pass. Today he'll face a depleted Yankees team that is missing half of its regulars. Sure the Yankees have been winning game still, but they've been doing it with smoke and mirrors and I don't think it's sustainable. Phil Hughes goes for the Yanks today and his skill set doesn't suit Yankees Stadium very well. He is a fly ball pitcher in a park where home runs occur more frequently than most. Hughes got shelled in his last outing in Kansas City allowing six runs in 5 2/3 innings. That was after a few good performances, so who knows what we'll see from him today. I like the Mariners to win this one behind an underrated Iwakuma today.
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05-14-13 | Seattle Mariners +108 v. New York Yankees | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
5-unit Play Take #965 Seattle Mariners over New York Yankees (7:05pm ET) Two aces hook up in Yankee Stadium tonight as the New York Yankees host the Seattle Mariners. While both Felix Hernandez and CC Sabathia are sure to enter the Hall of Fame after their careers are over, only one of these guys is still pitching like a Hall of Famer. Felix Hernandez signed a huge $175 million contract in the offseason, which at the time was the biggest in history for a pitcher. He has earned every penny so far at 5-2 with a 1.53 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in eight starts. The biggest improvement in King Felix's game is the reduction in his walks from 2.2 per nine innings in 2012 to 1.2 in 2013. At age 27 he is entering his prime years and has more room to get even better for the Seattle franchise. The same can't be said of 32-year old CC Sabathia. The big right-hander is still posting good numbers with a 3.23 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, but all of his peripheral statistics are declining and he's wearing down a bit from his huge inning workloads over the last several seasons. He also can't expect to get a ton of run support at the moment as the Yankees are an absolute mash unit with six regulars out of the lineup. They've still managed to score a decent amount of runs, but they can't expect to keep getting great production from guys like Vernon Wells and Travis Hafner. The Yankees had to travel yesterday after playing a doubleheader in Cleveland so they might not be 100% focused in this one either. Seattle, meanwhile, had the day off yesterday so they should be well rested. I love the pitching matchup today and the situation makes it even better. Play the Mariners as our 5-unit selection.
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05-14-13 | San Francisco Giants v. Toronto Blue Jays -129 | Top | 6-10 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #980 Toronto Blue Jays over San Francisco Giants (7:05pm ET) I don't think very highly of the Toronto Blue Jays at the moment, but they are certainly better than their 15-24 record indicates. I also don't like the way that today's start R.A. Dickey is pitching either, but he is much better than his 5.06 ERA indicates. In order to find value on a game, you have to look past the pure numbers and project ahead. With Dickey and the Jays, I think the betting markets have given up on them after continuously failing to meet expectations. We know this team has talent, so now is the time to jump aboard and take advantage of some great prices. Today's game at home versus the Giants presents such an opportunity. The Giants go with lefty Barry Zito today and that's good news for the Jays. Over the past few years, Zito has been horrendous on away from San Francisco. In fact, in 2013 Zito has a 0.55 ERA at home and a 14.21 ERA on the road. His numbers obviously aren't going to continue to be that extreme, but the point is clear - Zito really struggles away from the pitcher's ballpark that he is accustomed to. The Jays have a very tough lineup to navigate and I'd be surprised if Zito can get through more than five innings today. I like the Jays at home as a short favorite here.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-13-13 | Chicago White Sox -115 v. Minnesota Twins | 3-10 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #913 Chicago White Sox over Minnesota Twins (8:10pm ET) It's been a really tough year for the Chicago White Sox so far. They are currently in last place in the American League Central and there's isn't much optimism on the South Side of Chicago. The Sox are last in the American League in runs scored and it appears that age is catching up with this squad in a hurry. However, they do have some bright spots on their team and one of them is today's starter Hector Santiago. The scrappy right-hander was moved into the rotation from the bullpen to take over for Gavin Floyd and he's impressed. He's only allowed one run in two starts and both of them were on the road. His K/BB ratio in those games was 14-4 and he looked very comfortable despite the fact that he only has six career starts. Today he'll pitch on the road again versus the Minnesota Twins. Minnesota has played better than expectations this season, but they go to war with a guy that's really been struggling of late. Left-hander Pedro Hernandez comes in with a 5.96 ERA and 1.68 WHIP and has a terrible K/BB ratio. He also has problems keeping the ball down and has yielded more than his fair share of home runs. He's the kind of guy that a weak White Sox lineup will gladly welcome. With the huge edge in the starting pitching department today, I like Chicago as a small road favorite.
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05-13-13 | Milwaukee Brewers v. Pittsburgh Pirates -145 | 5-1 | Loss | -145 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #902 Pittsburgh Pirates over Milwaukee Brewers (7:05pm ET) The Pittsburgh Pirates are quickly establishing themselves as one of the better teams in baseball. They just swept the Mets to make it 19-10 in their last 29 games and they're inching closer to the Cardinals in the National League Central race. I like this Pirates team as they play baseball the right way and win games the way that you should - with a solid starting rotation, timely hitting and a lockdown bullpen. Pirates ace A.J. Burnett takes the ball today and he's been one of the best pitchers in the league thus far in 2013. He has a 2.57 ERA and 1.08 WHIP to go along with an amazing strikeout rate of 12.1 batters per nine innings. Simply put, he's been dominant in nearly every start. The Milwaukee Brewers come to town for this one and they are a free swinging bunch. That should help Burnett as he encourages lots of swings and misses. Marco Estrada will be tasked with slowing down the Pirates today. The right-hander has been up and down in 2013 and finds himself with a 6.05 ERA and 1.50 WHIP on May 13. He has better stuff than that, but his biggest problem has been giving up the home run ball. That doesn't bode well for him because the Pirates are near the top of the National League in homers. The Pirates have been a much better team at home over the last few seasons and I like their chances today with one of the best pitchers in the majors on the mound.
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05-13-13 | New York Yankees G2 +110 v. Cleveland Indians G2 | 7-0 | Win | 110 | 4 h 50 m | Show | |
3-unit Play for Game #2 of the Doubleheader Take #921 New York Yankees over Cleveland Indians (3:05pm ET) The New York Yankees and Cleveland Indians play two today and we like the pitching matchup for the second game. It's always hard to project what the lineups will be in the second game of a doubleheader, but the advantage for the Yankees on the mound appears big enough to warrant a play. Left-hander Vidal Nuno of the Yankees was recently brought up and this will be the first start of his major league career. He dominated the competition in the minor leagues at just about every stop he has made. In his four starts at Triple-A this season, Nuno went 2-0 with a 1.54 ERA and a strikeout rate of 10.0 batters per nine innings and only 0.80 walks per nine innings. It's tough to project how certain players will translate into the majors, but it's always good to catch a guy who is pitching in a nice groove when he is promoted. On the side is Indians youngster Trevor Bauer. He's spent most of his season in the minor leagues as well, but the results haven't been as good. Bauer has also made a couple of starts in the big leagues in 2013 and neither of them were very good outings. He walked a total of 13 batters in 10 innings of work while only striking out seven. He also wasn't able to pitch past the fifth inning in either start and that will be big today as the bullpens may get overworked in the doubleheader. The Yankees are the play here in the second game.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-12-13 | Atlanta Braves v. San Francisco Giants +101 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 101 | 5 h 0 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #960 San Francisco Giants over Atlanta Braves (4:05pm ET) Tim Lincecum wasn't the same pitcher that we were accustomed to seeing last season. He struggled with a 5.18 ERA and 1.47 WHIP and his control was horrid. He showed up big in the postseason however, and many thought we'd see a return to form for the two-time Cy Young award winner. But he had a tough spring and then walked 11 batters in his first two outings in the regular season. But since then Lincecum has been very good. In his last five starts, the right-hander has a 34-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio and has slowly regained his confidence. He has still yielded some big innings, keeping his ERA higher than usual, but he's definitely on the right track. The opposite can be said of Atlanta Braves starter Kris Medlen. In the second half of 2012, Medlen was the hottest pitcher in all of baseball and the Braves had won 23 straight games in which he started. But in 2013 he's looked very ordinary on the mound. His strikeout rate is down 20% and his walks have nearly doubled from last season. What he did last season was simply not sustainable and his results this year are probably more in line with the skill set he owns. The Giants dominated the last two games against the Braves by a combined 18-3 score and will look to make it three of four in the series. They are 14-7 at home so far this season, which is more wins at home than anyone in baseball. It's hard to believe that they're underdogs in this one, so we'll take Lincecum and the Giants.
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05-12-13 | Baltimore Orioles v. Minnesota Twins -101 | 6-0 | Loss | -101 | 3 h 4 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #972 Minnesota Twins over Baltimore Orioles (2:10pm ET) The Baltimore Orioles are a better team than the Minnesota Twins, but I like the pitching matchup today for the Twinkies. They go with Scott Diamond, a southpaw who is one of the most underrated pitchers in the American League. Last season he went 12-9 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, and he's putting up similar numbers so far during the 2013 campaign. He doesn't throw hard but he excels at keeping hitters off balance and has excellent control for a youngster. Wei-Yin Chen starts for Baltimore and I haven't liked what I've seen from him so far this season. His ERA is at 3.40 at this point, but his strikeout rate is way down from last season and his groundball rate is considerably worse than last season. Chen is a deceptive pitcher and part of the reason that he was so good last year was that no one had seen him pitch and his delivery is tough to pick up. The league is making the proper adjustments and I expect him to struggle at times in 2013. He's already gotten knocked around by a few teams this season, but he's been fortunate to avoid some big innings. It's just a matter of time before he flounders, so we'll take Minnesota with a solid pitcher in Diamond today.
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05-12-13 | San Diego Padres v. Tampa Bay Rays -143 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 3 h 34 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #980 Tampa Bay Rays over San Diego Padres (1:40pm ET) The Tampa Bay Rays delivered a crushing come from behind victory in the bottom of the ninth yesterday against the San Diego Padres. Evan Longoria smacked a 2-run homer off of Huston Street to win the game in dramatic fashion. Those games can really demoralize a team, especially when things haven't gone as planned early on in the season. For the Rays it could be the boost that they need as they've been under .500 all season until notching the win yesterday to put them at 18-18. Many had the Rays as the best team in the American League East before the season started, and I still think that may be the case when it's all said and done. Right-hander Roberto Hernandez goes for Tampa today and he's been solid despite some tough luck at 1-4 with a 4.66 ERA. Hernandez has yielded quite a few home runs despite the fact that he generally keeps the ball down. His strikeout-to-walk ratio has been the best of his career and it's just a matter of time before he turns that into positive results. Now's the time to be proactive and jump on Hernandez before it happens. Take the Rays here at a modest price at home with some momentum after yesterday's big win.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-11-13 | Philadelphia Phillies -101 v. Arizona Diamondbacks | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #911 Philadelphia Phillies over Arizona Diamondbacks (8:10pm ET) Despite what the records say, I think this Philadelphia Phillies team is a little bit better than the Arizona Diamondbacks. Their lineups are both very balanced and both teams have a couple of guys in the lineup that can take advantage of mistakes. In the bullpens, I like the Phillies options better as they have a dependable back end guy in Jonathan Papelbon. The D-backs are working with Heath Bell as the closer right now and that's not going to end well. As for the starting pitchers in today's game, the Phillies are better there as well. Cliff Lee is sort of a forgotten man and is still one of the best pitchers in the National League. He's 3-2 with a 3.26 ERA and 1.07 WHIP and still has excellent control. Opposing Lee will be right-hander Trevor Cahill. I like what Cahill brings to the mound. He's a smart pitcher that doesn't make many mistakes and is about as consistent as they come. However, he rarely dominates a game and that might be what Arizona needs from him if Lee is on top of his game tonight. This will be a good game to watch, but I think the Phils come out on top in the end.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-11-13 | Pittsburgh Pirates +105 v. New York Mets | 11-2 | Win | 105 | 3 h 7 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #901 Pittsburgh Pirates over New York Mets (1:10pm ET) The Pittsburgh Pirates are playing some great baseball against good competition this season. They've had one of the toughest schedules in the National League so far and they're 18-10 over their last 28 games. The only weak link for this team has been shaky starting pitching at times, but they'll get a good shot in the arm with the return of Francisco Liriano from the disabled list. The hard-throwing left-hander was acquired by the Pirates in the offseason and was counted on to make a big contribution this season. That hasn't changed, and based on his minor league rehab numbers we should expect to see results right away. In his three Triple-A starts, Liriano went 2-0 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. But more impressively, he posted a 23-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He'll go up against a New York Mets team that really struggles against left-handers, which should help ease him back to the big leagues. Jon Niese goes for the Mets and he's been a train wreck lately. His ERA is at 4.66 and he's walking nearly as many batters as he's striking out in his first seven starts. He definitely doesn't look like his usual self on the mound. I have the Pirates favored in this one, while the markets say they're the underdog. Plenty of value on Pittsburgh today.
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05-10-13 | Oakland A's v. Seattle Mariners -129 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #978 Seattle Mariners over Oakland A's (10:10pm ET) One of the best kept secrets in baseball is Seattle right-hander Hisashi Iwakuma. He doesn't get a lot of attention in the rest of the country, but Iwakuma has put up some excellent numbers so far in his young career. He's 3-1 with a miniscule 1.61 ERA and 0.76 WHIP in seven starts in 2013. Last year he went 9-5 with a 3.16 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. The league certainly hasn't figured him out yet, so we'll continue to be on his side. He goes up against a potent Oakland A's lineup today, but one with some casualties in the lineup. On the disabled list for the A's are Coco Crisp, Josh Reddick and Chris Young, leaving them with a depleted outfield. Youngster Dan Straily pitches for Oakland and he has some good stuff too. However, he hasn't been able to translate that into very good results as he comes in with a 5.94 ERA in three starts. I like this Seattle team a lot and think they are better than what their record indicates. I like Iwakuma even better and I don't think he is getting enough respect by the betting markets. Take Seattle as a small home favorite today.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-10-13 | New York Yankees +105 v. Kansas City Royals | 11-6 | Win | 105 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #971 New York Yankees over Kansas City Royals (8:10pm ET) Phil Hughes is in a groove. In his last four starts, the right-hander has a 1.93 ERA and 1.00 WHIP to go along with a 30-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He's a guy that has struggled with confidence over his career, but he is beaming right now. Today he draws a Kansas City Royals team that he has fared very well against in his career, so I expect a big performance from him. Wade Davis is the Royals' starter in today's matchup. He's about an inconsistent as it gets, throwing absolute gems in some starts and having disasters in others. He certainly can't be trusted and is someone I'd prefer to be on the other side of. The Yankees are underdogs here that seems like a mistake. Take New York.
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05-10-13 | Milwaukee Brewers +133 v. Cincinnati Reds | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #955 Milwaukee Brewers over Cincinnati Reds (7:10pm ET) Rookie phenom Toni Cingrani goes up against a dangerous Milwaukee Brewers lineup tonight in Great American Ballpark. The 23-year old southpaw has been impressive so far, but this will be his stiffest test yet. The Brewers have one of the most potent lineups in the National League and they destroy left-handed pitching. Cingrani has posted a 2.63 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in four starts since being called up to replace Johnny Cueto, but it doesn't take long before the league takes notice and starts making adjustments. I like what Cingrani has brought to the table since being promoted, but the Brewers should put some pressure on him tonight. They'll send right-hander Yovani Gallardo to the hill, someone capable of shutting down the opposition when he's on his game. Gallardo hasn't been sharp in all of his starts this season but I like him in the underdog role because he dominate at times. The Brewers have also welcomed back third basemen Aramis Ramirez recently, making their offense a little bit better than what it was. The Reds are a better team overall, but I just have a strong hunch that Cingrani is due for some major regression and the Brewers are the kind of team that could hang a crooked number. Take Milwaukee.
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05-10-13 | Pittsburgh Pirates -107 v. New York Mets | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #953 Pittsburgh Pirates over New York Mets (7:10pm ET) We're six weeks into the 2013 season, and the Pittsburgh Pirates have been impressive in the early going. They are a respectable 18-15, but are 17-10 in the last 27 games after a slow start and have played a very tough schedule. The only bad team that they've played so far was the opening series against the Cubs and they've played St. Louis six times and the Braves, Nationals, Reds, Dodgers, Brewers, Mariners, Phillies and Diamondbacks for a series each. They've held up well over that stretch due to solid starting pitching, timely hitting and a superb bullpen. They have a big edge in the starting pitching department today as left-hander Wandy Rodriguez squares off against righty Shaun Marcum. Rodriguez is a steady force in the Pirates rotation, always keeping his team in the game and dominating at times. He's 2-2 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.09 WHIP thus far in 2013, but I expect those numbers will get a touch better based on his career marks. Marcum has been a disaster this season. After battling injuries from last season that carried forward into 2013, the 31-year old holds a 7.20 ERA and 2.10 WHIP in three appearances. He's obviously a better pitcher than that, but Marcum still might not be 100% on the mound so we'll take advantage of that here. The Pirates are the better team in every phase of the game and this line should be at least 20 cents higher. The play is Pittsburgh.
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05-08-13 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Chicago Cubs +105 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 56 m | Show | |
10-unit Play Take #954 Chicago Cubs over St. Louis Cardinals (2:20pm ET) National League Central rivals battle today in Wrigley Field as the Chicago Cubs host the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cubs are playing a little bit better lately going 8-7 in their last 15 games. They've gotten some really good efforts from their starting rotation this season, and Carlos Villanueva is responsible for quite a few of those. The right-hander comes in with a 2.85 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in six starts in 2013. He looks better than he ever has and the main reason is that he's keeping the ball down a lot more than he has in the past. His groundball rate is at 48% compared to only 36% last season. He also had reduced his walk rate by nearly 30% and has avoided the big inning. He'll face a tough Cardinals lineup, but it's not as potent as it has been in the past few years. Jake Westbrook toes the rubber for St. Louis and he's put up some great numbers on the surface. He comes in with a 1.07 ERA, but that is deceiving as he carries a 1.40 WHIP and is walking nearly as many batters as he strikes out. His strand rate is an unrealistic 90%, so needless to say he's been fortunate in 2013. The Cubs don't have a lineup that strikes fear into opposing pitchers, but it's improving by the day as young hitters like Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo mature. The Cubs are at home today and we'll take them as the underdog in this spot.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-07-13 | Miami Marlins v. San Diego Padres -172 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #906 San Diego Padres over Miami Marlins (10:10pm ET) The Miami Marlins could set records for futility this season offensively. So far in 2013, they're averaging only 2.97 runs per game. Put them in a pitcher's park in San Diego and take away their best hitter Giancarlo Stanton, and all of a sudden it becomes nearly impossible for this squad to plate any runs. Last night they were shutout in the first game of the series against the Padres, and it won't be much easier for them tonight. The Marlins are hitting only .219 against southpaws this season, and they'll have to face lefty Eric Stults. Stults is a crafty pitcher that has some pretty good stuff and isn't getting much attention in a smaller market. He has some potential to be a good pitcher and should be able to shut down the Marlins with ease. Miami counters with right-hander Alex Sanabia, who has really struggled this season with a 4.67 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. The Padres don't have great offensive numbers on the surface, but remember that they play in a tough pitcher's park and they were also without Chase Headley and Carlos Quentin for a significant chunk of this season. We're actively looking for the chance to play against the Marlins, and today provides us with a good opportunity. San Diego is the play here.
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05-07-13 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Tampa Bay Rays -127 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -127 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #918 Tampa Bay Rays over Toronto Blue Jays (7:10pm ET) How long does it take before you can call the Toronto Blue Jays a bad baseball team? They have one of the most talented clubs in baseball, but have really scuffled since the season started and are now just 12-21. Most people around the game think the Jays will eventually snap out of it and be competitive, but I'm not so sure. They have been outscored by a whopping 46 runs this season in only 33 games. That's 29th in the majors, ahead of only the pathetic Houston Astros. Even the Marlins have played their opponents closer in overall run differential, and that says a lot. Toronto is struggling in every phase of the game and today they send one of their worst starting pitchers to the mound. Left-hander J.A. Happ doesn't deserve to be in a starting rotation for a team that expects to win. The 30-year old is walking 5.1 batters per nine innings and has a low 29% groundball rate. He's been lucky to manage a 3.98 ERA, but he's heading for some regression soon. In his last outing he walked seven batters in 3 2/3 innings and was lucky to only let two men cross the plate. The Rays are a patient team at the plate and will make Happ work for everything he gets. Don't be surprised if he has another short outing today. Roberto Hernandez pitches for the Rays and he's been really good for his new club in 2013 despite a high ERA. The right-hander is striking out nearly a batter per inning and is keeping the ball on the ground to the tune of a 52% rate. His numbers will improve as he starts to catch some breaks. The Rays offense has finally started clicking and should be able to give him some solid run support today versus Happ. Take Tampa Bay as our 10-unit Game today.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-06-13 | Arizona Diamondbacks -106 v. Los Angeles Dodgers | Top | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #955 Arizona Diamondbacks over Los Angeles Dodgers (10:10pm ET) It hasn't been pretty for the Los Angeles Dodgers so far this season, and this past weekend it got much worse. After a huge spending spree and several big name acquisitions, the Dodgers find themselves just a half game from the cellar in the National League West after getting swept by their rival the San Francisco Giants over the weekend. The offense has been the biggest problem, as they're 14th in the NL in runs scored. And they suffered another blow when Hanley Ramirez went back on the disabled list and Adrian Gonzalez has been nursing a bad neck recently. Today they'll try to halt a four-game losing streak with left-hander Chris Capuano. The 34-year old veteran is coming off the disabled list where he was with a calf injury for a couple of weeks. He made a rehab start, but he still may not be 100%. He'll face a gritty Arizona Diamondbacks team that comes in at 16-15 so far in 2013. Arizona is a deep team with a balanced lineup and should be able to give Capuano some problems. Trevor Cahill pitches for the D-Backs and he's about as reliable as it comes. He will never dominate a game, but he always gives his team a chance to win. With a struggling lineup facing him, he should be able to hold them to just a couple of runs. We'll take Arizona in this one as the Dodgers morale is at a season low.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-05-13 | Tampa Bay Rays +102 v. Colorado Rockies | Top | 8-3 | Win | 102 | 5 h 19 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #929 Tampa Bay Rays over Colorado Rockies (4:10pm ET) The Tampa Bay Rays and Colorado Rockies play the rubber game of their three-game interleague series this afternoon in Coors Field. When you stack up the numbers between these two clubs, the Rockies look to have the upper hand on the surface. However, the season is young and what's more important is projecting the future and not looking too closely at the past due to a small sample size. This Rockies team has overachieved through the first month of the season. They have seven regulars batting over .300 and have scored 21 runs more than the next best team in the National League. Some of that has surely been aided by Coors Field, but even so they're playing above their normal abilities. Their team OPS is nearly 70 points higher than anyone else in the league and that's just not sustainable for a long season. We've already seen the Rockies start to stumble a bit lately. After a red hot 13-4 start, the Rockies are just 5-8 since and they haven't scored more than four runs in any of their losses. On the mound today for the Rockies will be Jhoulys Chacin. This will be his first start off the disabled list, which is always a tough situation the first time out. He'll go up against Alex Cobb of the Rays. Cobb is putting together a really nice season with a 2.55 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in his five starts. He keeps the ball down, which will be big in Coors Field where the ball flies over the fence with ease at times. When you bet on the Rays, you always know that you're going to get a max effort and a team that plays the game the right way. They are always excellent on defense and they have the best manager in the game in Joe Maddon. Those intangibles are definitely worth something, and it's not always in the line. The line on this game should be closer to -140 for the Rays than even according to our model, so we are on Tampa for our 10-unit MLB Game of the Year!
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05-05-13 | Boston Red Sox v. Texas Rangers -143 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 13 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #924 Texas Rangers (-145) over Boston Red Sox (3:05pm ET) If we're talking about the best pitchers of 2013 so far, Yu Darvish has to be at the top of the list. The Japanese import is 5-1 with a 2.33 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in his six starts. He is also striking out 13.5 batters per nine innings and flirted with a perfect game in the first week of the season. He may not be able to keep this pace up for the entire season, but right now he is in absolute groove. The betting markets have definitely picked up on it, and Darvish has been priced fairly expensively in his starts recently. However, today we get the opportunity to play him in a reasonable price range as he goes up against the team with the best record in baseball - the Boston Red Sox. There's no question that the Red Sox are for real, but they haven't faced too many ace pitchers this season. And they surely haven't faced anyone pitching as well as Yu Darvish. Jon Lester gets the ball for Boston and he's had a good season so far. However, he hasn't looked as sharp in his last two outings against Toronto and Oakland. In 11 2/3 combined innings of work in those games, Lester only has a 10-8 K/BB ratio and has given up nine runs. He'll look to bounce back today, but that won't be easy against a lineup full of mashers in Arlington. The Rangers are 10-4 at home this season and I like them to get the job done behind the hottest pitcher in the game right now.
The following selection is our 7-unit MLB Game of the Year |
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05-04-13 | St. Louis Cardinals -113 v. Milwaukee Brewers | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #953 St. Louis Cardinals over Milwaukee Brewers (4:05pm ET) One of the National League's hottest starting pitcher takes the mound today for the St. Louis Cardinals. Adam Wainwright has been nothing short of amazing in the beginning of the 2013 campaign. He's 4-2 with a 2.03 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in six starts on the season. He's also only walked three batters in 44 1/3 innings of work, against 43 strikeouts. In addition, Wainwright has fared well against the hitters he'll see in today's Brewers lineup. The same can't be said for Milwaukee's starter Yovani Gallardo. No team has dominated him like the Cardinals have in his career. Earlier this season he yielded six runs in 5 1/3 innings in a loss at St. Louis. It hasn't been a good season for Gallardo overall as he's been up and down with a 4.25 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. His strikeout rate is down from 9.0 batters per nine innings to only 5.0. And to top it all off, Gallardo was arrested for DUI a couple of weeks ago. These teams are very similar apart from the starting rotations. They both top notch offenses and bullpens that have been shaky in 2013. We like the Cardinals today for the huge edge in the starting pitchers.
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05-04-13 | Seattle Mariners +117 v. Toronto Blue Jays | 8-1 | Win | 117 | 3 h 53 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #969 Seattle Mariners over Toronto Blue Jays (1:05pm ET) It's hard to write a talented team off in the beginning of May, but in the case of the Toronto Blue Jays it's getting very close. At 10-20 through the first 30 games, the Jays just don't seem like they're playing very hard out there. They added a ton of new pieces to this club in the offseason, so there's some that believe that the team chemistry isn't all there. Whatever the case, this team just isn't getting good production from anyone. Many thought that this would be the most potent offense in the American League - they currently 13th in runs scored. They were also thought to have a solid starting rotation with reliable veterans - their starters ERA thus far is 5.36 and ranks 14th in the league. Many of their players are putting numbers up well below their marks from last season, but they also had several players who posted career bests last year, so regression was probably in order. The Seattle Mariners are a better club than the Blue Jays and they also have the much better starting pitcher on the mound today. Yes, Hisashi Iwakuma is a better pitcher than R.A. Dickey right now. When Dickey is in a groove like was last year with the Mets, there is almost no one better. But he's definitely not in one this season with the Jays as he comes in with a 4.50 ERA and 1.31 WHIP against the tougher league. Iwakuma is a rising star who doesn't get much attention pitching in Seattle, but he should. He's started the 2013 season with a 1.67 ERA and 0.69 WHIP in his first six outings. And last season he had a stellar rookie campaign with a 3.16 ERA, so this is no fluke. You won't be getting underdog prices for Iwakuma for long, so now is the time to take advantage.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-03-13 | Seattle Mariners -126 v. Toronto Blue Jays | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #915 Seattle Mariners over Toronto Blue Jays (7:05pm ET) The season is young, but based on the numbers it's hard to argue that the Toronto Blue Jays are any better than the Seattle Mariners. Both teams are near the bottom of the league in runs scored, but the M's have had much better efforts from their starting rotation and bullpen this season. Throw King Felix and Ricky Romero into the equation and all of a sudden you can make a strong case for Seattle being a prohibitive favorite here today. Felix is on top of his game right now. In his last three outings, he has a 0.82 ERA and 0.77 WHIP to go along with a 28-2 K/BB ratio. For the season he has a 1.90 ERA, so he's been fairly consistent. Romero, on the other hand, is one of the worst starters in the American League and couldn't even make the Toronto rotation in the spring. Last season he was 9-14 with a 5.77 ERA and had several meltdowns early in games. His control was all over the place and he lost more confidence as the season wore on. There will be a lot of people watching to see how he does in his first start of the season tonight, so the pressure will be on. Based on recent history, you can't expect Romero to rise to the occasion. The M's are the play here.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-03-13 | Washington Nationals v. Pittsburgh Pirates -121 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
5-unit Play Take #906 Pittsburgh Pirates over Washington Nationals (7:05pm ET) One of the hottest starting pitchers in baseball gets the ball today in Pittsburgh. A.J. Burnett has been clicking since Opening Day and holds a 2.83 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in his six starts in 2013. Most impressive, however, is his strikeout rate of 12.3 batters per nine innings - well above his career mark. In addition, he's faced some of the best offenses in the National League this season and hasn't allowed more than three runs in any one start. He'll go up against a struggling Washington Nationals offense today at home. The Nats are just 13th in runs scored in the National League this season and are without Ryan Zimmerman for this one. Bryce Harper and Jayson Werth are also banged up and playing at less than 100%. The Pirates are 15-7 in their last 22 games and they've played some really tough teams during that stretch including the Diamondbacks, Reds, Cardinals, Braves and Brewers. I wasn't sure if I was buying into Pittsburgh before the season, but they've made me believers so far. To top it all off, this team does all of the little things to win games like playing good defense, running the bases well and matching up well out of the bullpen. The Pirates are also a great team at home over the last few years. Our 5-unit Game is Pittsburgh.
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05-02-13 | BOS RED SOX -125 v. Toronto Blue Jays | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #961 Boston Red Sox over Toronto Blue Jays (7:05pm ET) Two teams heading in opposite directions square off today in Toronto. The Blue Jays are 10-18 and fading fast after big expectations were placed on them to begin the season. Nearly everyone is their entire lineup is struggling at the same time, and that's just the way it goes sometimes. Hitting can be infectious and it goes both ways. For the Red Sox, it's going the right way as they are one of the hottest hitting teams in the league right now. They come in 2nd in the American League in runs scored and their best hitter David Ortiz is on a rampage since returning from the disabled list. Big Papi is hitting .487 with three home runs and 15 RBIs in just 10 games since his return. The Red Sox will also send a red hot pitcher to the mound in Ryan Dempster. The veteran right-hander has a 3.30 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in his five starts. More impressive is his strikeout rate of 12.9 batters per nine innings, which is well above his career mark. With the way the Jays are struggling right now, it's hard to envision them scraping together too many runs against him. J.A. Happ will be tasked with the job of holding Boston at bay, and that won't be easy for the southpaw. He's a fringe starter who doesn't have great stuff and has had trouble keeping a spot in the rotation throughout his career. All signs point to a Red Sox victory here today.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-01-13 | Tampa Bay Rays -108 v. Kansas City Royals | 8-9 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #925 Tampa Bay Rays over Kansas City Royals (8:10pm ET) I've never been a big fan of Rays starter Jeremy Hellickson, but I like how he's progressing from year to year. So far in 2013, he's increased his strikeout rate by almost 20% and has cut down on his walks. He doesn't throw really hard but has deceptively good stuff and works both sides of the plate. His ERA hasn't reflected it, but Hellickson is getting better and that's bad news for the rest of the league. He also has owned the Kansas City Royals in his short career, holding them to a combined .482 OPS. Hellickson should get some good run support today as the Rays offense has come alive in the last couple of weeks after a slow start. They also draw a struggling starter in Luis Mendoza of the Royals. The right-hander comes in with a 5.14 ERA and is walking 5.9 batters per nine innings. He's bounced around between the starting rotation, bullpen and the minor leagues in his career and hasn't found his niche. With several other options, Mendoza has a short leash and I'm not expecting him to keep his job. The Royals are an improving team and I like their chances this season, but not with Mendoza on the mound. Hellickson and the Rays is the right side in this one.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-01-13 | San Diego Padres -115 v. Chicago Cubs | 2-6 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #909 San Diego Padres over Chicago Cubs (8:05pm ET) If you don't know much about Padres right-hander Andrew Cashner, it's time to start learning. The 26-year old throws 95+ mph and has excellent stuff. He's battled injuries for a good portion of his career, which has stunted his growth a bit. But he's healthy now and looking to establish himself as a mainstay in the San Diego rotation. He started the year in the bullpen as the Padres wanted to ease him into action, but was inserted into the rotation less than two weeks ago. In his two starts, Cashner has a 3.00 ERA and 0.90 WHIP to go along with his 10-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He has the kind of stuff and makeup to be an ace in this league and now is the time to be betting him until the word is out. He'll face a weak hitting Cubs lineup today that is 13th in the National League in runs scored. I'd be surprised if the Cubs can get many off of Cashner as they are a free swinging bunch that will have trouble making contact with Cashner's heat. Chicago will send right-hander Scott Feldman to hill. The 30-year old is 1-3 with a 3.92 ERA in four starts so far in 2013. However, his peripheral numbers have been pretty bad as he's walking as many batters as he's striking out and his WHIP is 1.65. It's just a matter of time before Feldman's ERA blows up based on how he's pitching. The Padres lineup is a lot better than it was earlier in the season as they have Carlos Quentin back from suspension and Chase Headley back from injury. They're 12th in runs scored now, but they should creep up to the middle of the pack shortly. The Padres are the better team in every facet of the game and should be a bigger favorite in this one.
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04-30-13 | Los Angeles Angels +105 v. Oakland A's | Top | 6-10 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #975 Los Angeles Angels over Oakland A's (10:05pm ET) After a marathon game last night that went 19 innings, the Angels and A's are back at it again tonight in Oakland. The bullpens were taxed to the maximum in yesterday's game, so the starting pitchers are extremely important today. And when you look at it from that angle, the Angels have a big advantage today. Jarrod Parker of the A's hasn't been himself in 2013. At 0-4 with an 8.10 ERA and 2.14 WHIP, the young right-hander is in danger of losing his job in the rotation. It was just a year ago that Parker was amazing as a rookie. My guess is that he has some kind of injury going on, but it could be all mental at this point as well. Whatever the case, he's really struggling and not the kind of guy you want to count on to get you six or seven innings when you really need it. The Angels' Garrett Richards has put together a nice season so far early on. He started out in the bullpen but was moved to the rotation because of injuries. He comes in with a 3.65 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 24 2/3 innings and has really improved his control this season. He's walking about 50% less batters than in 2012 and also inducing about 10% more groundballs. With that kind of improvement, he'll likely be holding onto a spot in the rotation for quite a while. Los Angeles is going to ask him to pitch deep into the game today and I think he will be up to the task. Take the Angels today.
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04-29-13 | Colorado: T Chatwood v. Los Angeles: T Lilly -145 | 12-2 | Loss | -145 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
6-unit Play Take #914 Los Angeles Dodgers over Colorado Rockies (10:10pm ET) No one expected the Colorado Rockies to be sitting in first place in the National League West at the end of April, nor did they expect the Los Angeles Dodgers to be struggling just to get to .500. But it's early on, and way too early to make any definitive conclusions about these teams. The Rockies have played an easier schedule and I don't see them continuing to get solid efforts from their starting pitching like they have. They have some weak links and today's starter Tyler Chatwood is certainly one of them right now. The right-hander was called up to fill in for the injured Jhoulys Chacin last week, and he was torched in his first outing against the Braves. His biggest problem has always been his control as he's walking nearly as many hitters as he's striking out in his short career. The Dodgers bats haven't been scoring many runs this season, but most of that has to do with not getting hits with guys on base. I think they'll turn that around because their lineup is too good to struggle for long. I also like today's starter for Los Angeles Ted Lilly. He was really impressive in his first outing of the season last week, striking out seven batters and allowing only one run against the Mets. The line on this game would have been closer to -180 at the beginning of April, so I think we're getting great value based on how the perceptions of these teams has changed. The Dodgers are the play for our 6-unit Game..
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-28-13 | Los Angeles Angels v. Seattle Mariners -110 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 10 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #978 Seattle Mariners over Los Angeles Angels (4:10pm ET) The Seattle Mariners are a strong play today and it's almost entirely based on the pitching matchup. Hisashi Iwakuma has been one of the best kept secrets in the American League ever since he was called up last season. In 2013, he is 2-1 with a 1.99 ERA and 0.73 WHIP in five starts and sports a terrific 29-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio. It won't be long before this guy starts getting more attention, but the fact that he plays for a bad ballclub in Seattle helps us take advantage of it for a bit longer. He'll face off against the Los Angeles Angels and ex-Mariner Jason Vargas this afternoon. Vargas has really struggled with the Angels in his first four starts. He has a 5.82 ERA and 2.03 WHIP while walking just as many batters as he's struck out. The Angels' offense and bullpen also haven't lived up to expectations so far in 2013, so Vargas is probably going to need to pitch a gem today versus Iwakuma to have any shot. We get a great low price on the Mariners here today at home.
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04-28-13 | Baltimore Orioles v. Oakland A's -140 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 5 h 4 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #976 Oakland A's over Baltimore Orioles (4:05pm ET) The Oakland A's and Baltimore Orioles were the two biggest surprises in baseball last year. This year they're not sneaking up on anyone, but they both have still managed to stay above .500. But the A's have another surprise up their sleeves for 2013 and it's been Bartolo Colon so far. The 39-year old right-hander is pitching like a Cy Young candidate at 3-0 with a 2.42 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. He's also walked only one batter in 26 innings of work thus far! With control that good in pitcher's ballpark in Oakland, Colon can continue to have great success. His counterpart Miguel Gonzalez has put up good numbers this season and last season, but his peripherals haven't been as good as his ERA. He's due for some regression and I wouldn't be surprised if a strong hitting Oakland lineup jumps all over him. The A's lead the entire MLB in runs scored and that is really impressive considering where they play their home games. They've been struggling a bit lately, but that allows us to get a lower price here today. Take the A's.
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04-28-13 | Chicago Cubs -113 v. Miami Marlins | 4-6 | Loss | -113 | 2 h 9 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #953 Chicago Cubs over Miami Marlins (1:10pm ET) We get one more opportunity to bet against the Marlins at a reasonable price as the Cubs look to complete the four-game sweep in Miami. The Marlins offense is epically bad. They are scoring only 2.6 runs per game and have produced four runs or less in 20 of their 24 contests this season. That's good news for Cubs' starter Carlos Villanueva, who is on a nice roll right now. The right-hander came over from the American League and has really settled in nicely in the Cubs rotation. He enters today's game with a 1.53 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in four starts and has cut his walks by roughly 40% from last season. The Marlins will go righty Ricky Nolasco today on the bump. Nolasco has had a frustrating career as his numbers don't ever equate with the type of stuff that he has. That is probably attributable to his mental makeup, causing him to meltdown in crucial situations. The Cubs don't have a great offense, but they have enough good bats to keep Nolasco on edge. I like Chicago once again today.
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04-27-13 | Chicago Cubs -128 v. Miami Marlins | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #907 Chicago Cubs over Miami Marlins (7:10pm ET) The Chicago Cubs go for a third straight win in Miami as they take on the Marlins on Saturday night. And when the Cubs are beating up on you, you know your team is bad. Things have gotten pretty ugly for the Marlins organization in recent days. Owner Jeffrey Loria ruffled some feathers in the clubhouse when he dictated the pitching rotation for a doubleheader in Minnesota earlier in the week. The players didn't like it and it may have gotten under the skin of a team that was already struggling to begin with. The Cubs have an edge in the pitching matchup today as southpaw Travis Wood takes on youngster Alex Sanabia. The Marlins really struggle with lefties and Wood is pitching pretty well right now. Sanabia is only 24-years old and has a lot to learn at the big league level. I question if he's ready to pitch in the majors and I doubt if he'd be up here if he was on any other team. The Cubs should take advantage as they have a few good hitters in their lineup that have been swinging the bat well. Take the Cubs in this spot today.
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04-27-13 | Pittsburgh Pirates +111 v. St. Louis Cardinals | 5-3 | Win | 111 | 7 h 0 m | Show | |
5-unit Play Take #905 Pittsburgh Pirates over St. Louis Cardinals (4:15pm ET) We have a big series in St. Louis this weekend between the Pirates and Cardinals. Both teams are playing good baseball right now, fighting with each other and the Reds for supremacy in the division. I wasn't very high on this Pittsburgh team before the season began, but they've really impressed me against a tough schedule so far. Their lineup is in the middle of the pack as far as scoring runs, but that's exactly where they want to be with the starting rotation and bullpen that they've put together. Right-hander A.J. Burnett takes the mound for the Pirates today and he doesn't require much run support. He has a 2.79 ERA and 1.14 WHIP to go along with a dominating 42-11 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 2013. He's also been very consistent in each of his five starts, including a game two weeks ago when he shut down the Cardinals throwing seven innings allowing only one hit and no runs. The Cards will counter with Jake Westbrook, who has had a strange start to the year. While he holds a 1.25 ERA, Westbrook has gotten into all kinds of trouble as he's walked 5.8 batters per nine innings. He's managed to avoid any home runs, but he can't continue to give up free passes at this rate. If he's able to keep this game close, St. Louis still isn't home free as their bullpen has been a mess for most of the season. The Pirates, meanwhile, have gotten some great efforts from the back end of their pen. Their closer Jason Grilli, is 9-for-9 in save chances and sports a perfect 0.00 ERA in 10 innings of work. I don't see any other way but to play the Pirates here today, and it's our 5-unit Game.
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04-26-13 | Philadelphia Phillies +115 v. New York Mets | 4-0 | Win | 115 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #955 Philadelphia Phillies over New York Mets (7:10pm ET) The New York Mets host the Philadelphia Phillies in the first of a three-game set that features two pitchers going in opposite directions. Kyle Kendrick has bounced back and forth between the starting rotation and bullpen for the last five years with the Phils. He's always had pretty good stuff, but he needed some work on the mental side of his game. He finally seems like he's figured things out this season and it looks like he's in the rotation to stay now. Kendrick comes in with a 3.28 ERA in his four starts with an improved K/BB rate and a better GB/FB ratio. He's 29-years old, which is right around the age that pitchers start to peak and with the confidence he's built up I think he is a reliable starting pitcher. Conversely, Dillon Gee comes in with a 5.95 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in his four starts this season. His strikeouts are down, his walks are up and he's yielding more flyballs. This is on the heels of last season where he showed pretty good improvement in his second full season with the Mets. Gee could be dealing with a hidden injury or maybe the league has made the proper adjustments against him. Whatever the case, he's not pitching well. I have the Phillies offense and bullpen rated above the Mets, and with the pitching matchup today I like Philadelphia even more. We'll play them here as underdogs.
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04-25-13 | Chicago Cubs -109 v. Miami Marlins | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #907 Chicago Cubs over Miami Marlins (7:10pm ET) I'm not sure how watchable tonight's game between the Chicago Cubs and Miami Marlins is, but it does provide us with an excellent wagering opportunity. The Marlins are the worst team in baseball according to my ratings and it's not close - and that includes the Astros. Miami has averaged only 2.57 runs per game thus far and is on pace to break all kinds of offensive records in futility. And the real kicker is that their best player, Giancarlo Stanton, is mired in a slump batting only .200 with no home runs and only three RBIs on the season. When it comes to pitching, the Marlins aren't much better. They have a team ERA of 4.50, which puts them 14th in the National League. The bullpen has been a disaster and the team isn't playing very good defense either. While the Chicago Cubs aren't anything special, they are light years ahead of the Marlins in every phase of the game. Today's starter Edwin Jackson has some of the best stuff in the game but has been inconsistent. However, he has an excellent strikeout rate this season (up roughly 20%) and he's keeping the ball on the ground much more frequently than he ever has. That's a recipe for success and the Marlins lineup should make things even easier on him today. The Marlins match up with right-hander Kevin Slowey. The veteran has pitched pretty well for the Miami so far, but I question whether he can keep it up for an entire season. I had this line over -130, so we have a solid play on the Cubs today.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-24-13 | Milwaukee: M Estrada -116 v. San Diego: E Volquez | 1-2 | Loss | -116 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #963 Milwaukee Brewers over San Diego Padres (10:10pm ET) The Milwaukee Brewers have won nine straight games after beating up on the Padres for a second straight night yesterday. They'll go for the sweep today with right-hander Marco Estrada on the hill. The 29-year old has been a solid pitcher for Milwaukee with a 4.08 ERA and 3.64 ERA over the last two seasons, respectively. His biggest problem has been giving up the long ball and that hasn't changed this season. In 24 innings of work he has already given up six home runs in 2013. The good news for Estrada is that he will be pitching in the spacious Petco Park today. Given his fly ball tendencies, this is the perfect park for him and his skill set. His opponent will be the erratic Edinson Volquez, who comes into today's game at 0-3 with an 8.84 ERA and 2.13 WHIP. It doesn't get much worse for a starting pitcher and a few more starts like that will likely earn him an invitation back to the minor leagues. The Brewers offense has been swinging the bats well lately, so I don't expect Volquez to last more than five innings today. The Brewers try to make it 10 straight wins today and I think they get the job done.
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04-24-13 | New York Yankees v. Tampa Bay Rays -121 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #976 Tampa Bay Rays over New York Yankees (7:10pm ET) The Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees go head-to-head in the rubber game of their three-game set tonight in Tampa. Both of these teams look a little different than they did last season; the Yankees because of injuries and the Rays due some offseason moves. Somehow the Yankees have managed to stay near the top of the American League in runs scored without four of their major contributors. That simply won't last as they can't expect guys like Francisco Cervelli, Vernon Wells and Travis Hafner to continue to produce at the rate that they are. The Rays, on the other hand, are near the bottom of the league in runs and that won't last either. They have too good of a lineup from top to bottom with proven commodities. That's the trick with early season numbers. You want to utilize them to help interpret what's happening and try to project the rest of the season, but it's also not a big enough sample to make any hard conclusions. That's where analytical reasoning comes in. The Yankees aren't this good offensively and the Rays aren't this bad either. That gives us a little bit of value today as the line on Tampa seems a bit short given the pitching matchup of Andy Pettitte and Alex Cobb. Take Tampa here.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-22-13 | New York (A): C Sabathia v. Tampa Bay: M Moore -114 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #968 Tampa Bay Rays over New York Yankees (7:10pm ET) We have a good pitching matchup between the Yankees and Rays as CC Sabathia goes up against Matt Moore. It's the veteran versus the youngster, and I think the youngster is a little bit better right now. Sabathia has not been a very good early season pitcher in his career. He is the kind of pitcher who needs to find a groove to get going, and April is a bit early to get things all figured out. His velocity is down several miles per hour and he's gotten himself into a few jams in some of his starts so far. He's managed to keep his ERA low at 2.57, but don't let that fool you. None of his peripheral stats are very good compared to his last few seasons and he isn't in rhythm yet. However, Moore looks like he has found his as he's 3-0 with a 1.00 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 2013 so far. He's also striking out 10 batters per nine innings and is gaining confidence in each start. Many have projected this to be a breakthrough season for the 23-year old and they might be right. He has great stuff and an organization around him that has brought along some pretty good young pitchers over the years. I also love betting this Rays team because they do all of the little things right - defense, baserunning, managerial decisions, etc. Tampa is also coming off of a big three-game sweep of the Oakland A's. I like them to keep the momentum going and knock off Sabathia and the Yanks today.
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04-22-13 | Oakland A's v. Boston Red Sox -125 | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #964 Boston Red Sox over Oakland A's (6:30pm ET) The Boston Red Sox have the best record in the American League at 12-6 thus far. This is in sharp contrast to last season where they finished 69-93 in a nightmare season. What's changed? Everything. They had one of the worst starting rotations in the league last season and now they have one of the best. Their bullpen was a disaster last season and this year they've figured it out. That had tons of injuries within their daily lineup last season and now they are mostly healthy. The Red Sox are here to stay and we've done very well backing them in the early going. Today they start a three-game set with the Oakland A's in Fenway Park. Left-hander Felix Doubront gets the ball for Boston and he's thrown the ball pretty well despite his 4.50 ERA. He has struck out 13 batters in his first 10 innings of work and has so far avoided any big innings. His mound opponent is A.J. Griffin of the A's. Griffin had a great rookie campaign last year in half of a season, but I'm not sure he can repeat it the second time seeing some of these teams. So far in three starts in 2013, his strikeout rate is down almost 20% while his walk rate is up over 50%. Sophomore slumps are real, and we could see one here with Griffin as the league adjusts to him. The Red Sox are only a small favorite here today and I still think are a bit underrated after a fast start. Take them here today.
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04-21-13 | Minnesota: S Diamond v. Chicago (A): G Floyd -138 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -138 | 4 h 59 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #924 Chicago White Sox over Minnesota Twins (2:10pm ET) The Chicago White Sox host the Minnesota Twins in the second game of a rain-shortened two-game set today. Both teams have had trouble scoring runs this season as the White Sox are 12th in runs and the Twins 15th in the American League. These teams have been led more by their pitching in 2013, which is a bit surprising given the rosters. Today's starters Gavin Floyd and Scott Diamond are both reliable middle of the rotation guys that give you good innings. I like Floyd better though as he's been pretty consistent in getting AL hitters out over the last few seasons. This is only Diamond's second full season and although he put up some good numbers as a rookie, it's always tougher to face the league for the second time around so he may be in store for a sophomore slump. The main reason I like the White Sox today though is their superb bullpen. They are tops in the league with a 1.74 ERA this season and have several great options to turn to in the late innings. Minnesota has put up good numbers in the pen too, but their guys aren't quite as proven and I'd be surprised if they're still this good at season's end. Chicago is the better ballclub and should grind out a victory today at home versus the Twins.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-20-13 | Oakland A's v. Tampa Bay Rays -125 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #974 Tampa Bay Rays over Oakland A's (7:10pm ET) There's no question that A's starter Jarrod Parker is struggling right now. All pitchers have their down periods, but it's the severity of this slump that raises some serious eyebrows. In three starts this season, Parker is 0-2 with a 10.80 ERA and a 2.66 WHIP! He has easily been the worst pitcher in the major leagues this season so far and that leads to the next question - why? The young right-hander was solid as a rookie last year at 13-8 with a 3.47 ERA in 29 starts. I do believe in sophomore slumps, but this is pretty extreme. My guess is that he's hiding and injury or maybe has some personal issues going on. Whatever the explanation, Parker is definitely a pitcher to bet against right now. The Tampa Bay Rays will get the chance to take advantage and they could really use the help. They've been struggling to score runs lately, but this is a good lineup that will get it going soon. Jeremy Hellickson will back them up and he's coming off of a great effort in Boston earlier this week. The right-hander pitched seven innings while allowing only one run with nine strikeouts and one walk. The Rays can't be held down for very long and I like them to get the victory today.
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04-20-13 | Cleveland Indians -106 v. Houston Astros | 19-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
5-unit Play Take #975 Cleveland Indians over Houston Astros (7:10pm ET) We've stayed away from betting against the Houston Astros this season, but today's game versus the Cleveland Indians provides us with a great opportunity. You won't see them priced this low very often, especially against a team that is as good as the Cleveland Indians are. Scott Kazmir will make his first start in two years today for the Tribe, and this is a perfect lineup to get acclimated with. The Astros are free swingers and lead the league in strikeouts by a huge margin. Kazmir has good stuff and if he's anything close to what he was a couple of years ago, he'll be a mainstay in the rotation for Cleveland. The Indians also boast a pretty talented lineup and I expect them to put up some runs this season. Despite the numbers right now, the Indians will certainly score more runs than the Astros by year's end. The Indians also boast a better bullpen and have a better defense. Philip Humber goes for the Astros today and he's one of the worst starters in baseball. He had a 6.44 ERA with the White Sox last season and he's striking out only half of the batters that he did last year. So give the Indians the starting pitching edge as well. I like the Indians in this game as they are better than the Astros is every facet of the game, and we've made this our 5-unit Game.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-19-13 | Detroit: A Sanchez -114 v. LA Anaheim: T Hanson | 1-8 | Loss | -114 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #927 Detroit Tigers over Los Angeles Angels (10:05pm ET) The Los Angeles Angels are really struggling right now at 4-10 on the season, and Tommy Hanson isn't necessarily the guy you want on the mound to help turn things around. Hanson hasn't been the same since he was bitten by the injury bug two seasons ago. The once promising ace of the Braves finished last season with a 4.48 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in the National League. Things certainly haven't been any easier on the Junior Circuit as he's had two poor efforts to begin the 2013 season. It also won't help that he goes up against one of the most dangerous lineups in the Detroit Tigers. Detroit has been shut down in its last two games scoring only two combined runs in 23 innings of baseball. They are too good to be held down for long and a dose of Hanson should be just what they need. Anibal Sanchez goes for the Tigers and he is rock solid at the back of their rotation. I like the Tigers to keep the Angels down tonight.
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04-19-13 | St. Louis Cardinals -114 v. Philadelphia Phillies | 1-8 | Loss | -114 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #903 St. Louis Cardinals over Philadelphia Phillies (7:05pm ET) Roy Halladay has been one of the best pitchers of his generation. He is definitely a Hall of Famer and will be remembered as such. However, right now he would struggle to get Triple-A hitters out. In his three starts this season, the veteran right-hander is 1-2 with a 7.63 ERA and 1.57 WHIP. His velocity is down and he doesn't look recognizable on the mound. As a result, he's changed from a bet on pitcher to a bet against one. He'll face an unforgiving Cardinals lineup that will take advantage of any mistakes at the plate. The Phillies haven't give much run support so far this season at 10th in the league in scoring. They'll face southpaw Jaime Garcia in this one. Garcia is gradually getting better and I like the fact that he doesn't get a ton of attention, as he is somewhat of a hidden gem. He has a career 3.37 ERA and this season he is under 2 at 1.86. He has great stuff and a heavy left-handed Phillies lineup is going to struggle to get many runs on him today. The Cardinals have the better starting pitcher right now and a much better offense. Put those together and the line seems a bit short. Take St. Louis to get the victory here.
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04-19-13 | Atlanta Braves -121 v. Pittsburgh Pirates | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -121 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #901 Atlanta Braves over Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05pm ET) The Atlanta Braves are the hottest team in baseball with a record of 13-2 on the season. They've mashed the ball offensively, leading the league with 29 home runs with Justin Upton amassing nine of them. Last night they tattooed opposing Pirate pitchers for four dingers. They definitely take their cuts at the plate so you'll probably see lots of hot offensive stretches with this team throughout the season. When they're making contact, they will bludgeon people. When they don't, they will struggle to score runs. I generally like staying away from team's that everyone knows is playing well, but I think they have a chance to do some serious damage to today's starter for the Pittsburgh Pirates Wandy Rodriguez. The left-hander has been struggling with a hamstring injury and skipped his last turn in the rotation. He wasn't very effective in his two starts before that so there's no telling how good Wandy will be on the mound today and how many innings he can give them. For the Braves it will be the dependable Tim Hudson. The 37-year old is no longer dominant but he keeps this team in the game nearly every time out. With the way the Braves are swinging the bats, he should have no problem picking up a win today. Go Braves!
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04-18-13 | St. Louis Cardinals -110 v. Philadelphia Phillies | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #955 St. Louis Cardinals over Philadelphia Phillies (7:05pm ET) We have what looks like it could be a great pitcher's duel between the St. Louis Cardinals and Philadelphia Phillies. Based on the names alone, Adam Wainwright versus Cole Hamels certainly feels like a prime time matchup. But a closer look reveals that it could be a big mismatch. Adam Wainwright has been spectacular in his three starts in 2013 with a 2.05 ERA and 1.00 WHIP to go along with a terrific 24-0 strikeout-to-walk ratio. It doesn't get much better than that, but the same can't be said for Hamels. The left-hander hasn't won a game in his three starts with a 7.56 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. His control has been awful as Hamels is walking twice as many batters as his normal rate. There hasn't been any talk about mechanical issues or an injury, but something clearly isn't right with Hamels right now. It could be that he's not throwing to him normal catcher Carlos Ruiz, who is still suspended from last year. With the way Wainwright is throwing, the Phillies aren't going to be able to get too many runs today - especially since they've been swinging the bats poorly. That puts even more pressure on a struggling Hamels and I think this one could get ugly as a result. Take the Cardinals today at a very small price.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-18-13 | San Francisco Giants -113 v. Milwaukee Brewers | 2-7 | Loss | -113 | 2 h 54 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #951 San Francisco Giants over Milwaukee Brewers (1:10pm ET) The 2013 campaign is less than three weeks old, but it's already been a long season for Yovani Gallardo. In his first three starts, the right-hander is 0-1 with a 6.61 ERA and 1.78 WHIP. More alarming is that his strikeout rate is down over 45% from last season and his velocity isn't up to his standards. And to top it all off, Gallardo was arrested on Monday and charged with a DUI. Amidst the struggles on the mound and distractions off the field, his head clearly can't be in the right place. He also doesn't have much help following him in the bullpen. Their new closer Jim Henderson has been solid, but he's pitched on back-to-back nights and likely won't be available today. That leaves them with some undesirable options in the pen. On the other side is Matt Cain and the San Francisco Giants. I'm not a huge fan of the Giants overall, but I like Cain. He's gotten off to a tough start on the season with a 5.94 ERA, but his peripheral statistics are still good and he's the same pitcher as he always has been. This play is more of a fade against Gallardo, but we get a good Giants club that should get the win today.
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04-17-13 | Detroit Tigers +102 v. Seattle Mariners | 2-1 | Win | 102 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #923 Detroit Tigers over Seattle Mariners (10:10pm ET) We have a great pitching matchup tonight as Max Scherzer squares off against Felix Hernandez. These are two of the best that the American League has to offer, but only one of these guys is on top of his game right now. Max Scherzer is coming off a spectacular outing against the A's in which he struck out 11 batters while only walking one in six innings of work. King Felix, however has struggled in his last two outings giving up four runs in each. Hernandez is generally one of those pitchers who gets into a groove and is unhittable for weeks at a time. Luckily for the Tigers, he hasn't found that groove yet and he's been very human in the early going. The Tigers offense is also miles ahead of the Mariners offense in every way. Detroit is 3rd in the league in OPS currently while Seattle is 14th. Don't expect those figures to change much throughout the season as this is pretty close to where they'll end up. We'll take Scherzer as an underdog as much as we can, so we're on the Tigers here.
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04-17-13 | San Francisco Giants v. Milwaukee Brewers -117 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #908 Milwaukee Brewers over San Francisco Giants (8:10pm ET) It's a good time to be taking a look at the Milwaukee Brewers because they're stock is pretty cheap right now. The Brew Crew comes in at just 4-8 on the young season, but this team is better than that. They have one of the better offenses in the National League even without a couple of their regulars who are injured. Their biggest problem this season has been in the bullpen where they've had trouble closing out some games late. However, they have moved southpaw Jim Henderson into the closer's role and he's done a fine job so far with a 1.50 ERA in six appearances and is 2 for 2 in save chances. Kyle Lohse will start today for Milwaukee and he's been great so far with his new team despite not participating much in the spring. In his two outings, Lohse has a 2.08 ERA and 0.85 WHIP and hasn't walked a single batter yet. This is on the heels of a season in which the right-hander went 16-3 with a 2.86 ERA. This guy has transformed his career and is now an All-Star caliber pitcher, but not many believe it. He wasn't even signed until late in the spring, so he's definitely pitching with a chip on his shoulder this season. His mound opponent will be Ryan Vogelsong of the San Francisco Giants. I'm not too high on Vogelsong as his numbers are always inflated by pitching in an extreme pitcher's park in San Francisco. I also think the Giants are a bit overvalued as a team right now due to a hot start and the fact that they're the World Series Champions. Take the Brewers at home here to win their second straight against the Giants.
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04-16-13 | Boston Red Sox -105 v. Cleveland Indians | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #965 Boston Red Sox over Cleveland Indians (7:05pm ET) If it feels like we've been on this Boston Red Sox team quite a bit this season, you're right. This is sixth time we've been on this team in 2013 and we are 4-1 thus far with the only loss being a ninth-inning heartbreaker to the Orioles. The Red Sox are a complete team with no glaring weaknesses. They have a formidable lineup that is balanced from top to bottom. They have a plus bullpen and an excellent group of starting pitchers. Today's starter Felix Doubront is probably one of the least heralded of their rotation, but he has solid stuff and I expect him to keep in ERA somewhere in the high 3's in 2013. He strikes out more than a batter an inning and has a good feel on the mound for a 25-year old. He'll face an improved Indians lineup, but one that Doubront has held at bay in this shorter career. The Tribe is also without leadoff man Michael Bourn today, who injured his hand on Sunday. The erratic Ubaldo Jimenez pitches for Cleveland in this one, and he's had a very difficult time of it against Boston in his career. He has a 6.97 ERA in two starts this season and he doesn't seem to have figured things out after last season disaster. It's hard to believe the Red Sox aren't getting much respect from the betting markets, but we'll continue to take advantage.
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04-15-13 | Chicago (A): G Floyd +125 v. Toronto: M Buehrle | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #913 Chicago White Sox over Toronto Blue Jays (7:05pm ET) Mark Buehrle goes up against his former team as the Toronto Blue Jays host the Chicago White Sox tonight. Buehrle has had a really tough time in his first couple of starts with the Jays, getting torched in both of his outings against the Indians and Tigers. The White Sox also have a lineup that does well against left-handers, which will make it even tougher on the veteran. The Jays are in some trouble right now and are feeling the pressure at 5-7 to begin the season. Expectations were really high for this club after all of the acquisitions they made in the offseason. But they've had some tough breaks losing Brett Lawrie to injury in the spring and now Jose Reyes, who could miss as much as three months. Those are two key pieces to this Toronto lineup and they don't have the depth to compensate for it. The White Sox send out one of the more dependable starters in the league in Gavin Floyd. He hasn't had a great start to the 2013 campaign, but his 5.56 ERA is deceiving because he's actually had a really nice K/BB ratio and is inducing more groundballs than ever. That tells me that he's pitching well and just not catching that many breaks. He's the better starting pitcher today and I like the White Sox to win this one behind him.
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04-14-13 | Detroit: A Sanchez -118 v. Oakland: J Parker | 10-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 5 m | Show | |
5-unit Play Take #973 Detroit Tigers over Oakland A's (4:05pm ET) The Detroit Tigers finally ended the Oakland A's long winning streak yesterday and they may be ready to start one of their one. Anibal Sanchez gets the ball for Detroit today and he's easily the most overlooked pitcher on their staff. Sanchez is a top tier starter that could be a #1 starter on many teams in the major leagues. But with Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and Doug Fister in the rotation, Sanchez kind of gets lost in the shuffle. So far in 2013, the right-hander has a 1.50 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in two starts. He's only 29-years old which is coming up on the peak years for starting pitchers. Don't be surprised if he puts together the best season of his career in 2013. His mound opponent Jarrod Parker is really struggling right now. In his first two starts he has a 6.48 ERA and has six walks with only two strikeouts. Those numbers are horrid and may indicate that something is wrong with Parker. Whether it's an injury or a mechanical adjustment, Parker needs to get right and facing the treacherous Tigers lineup is not going to be the answer. I like Detroit to come out on top today.
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04-13-13 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Kansas City Royals -126 | 3-2 | Loss | -126 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #924 Kansas City Royals over Toronto Blue Jays (7:10pm ET) Expectations were high for both the Kansas City Royals and Toronto Blue Jays coming into the 2013 season. Each team made some big moves in the offseason and really wanted to compete for a division championship. That obviously put some extra pressure on each ballclub, and one team has struggled with that the pressure while the other has faltered. The Royals are 6-3 on the young season and are playing with lots of confidence. One of the main reasons is the guy who takes the mound today for them - James Shields. He's been a great leader in the clubhouse and is a guy that the team can count on to give a top notch performance every time he trots out to the mound. He's been very good in his first two starts punching out 14 batters with no walks in 12 innings of work. On the other, the Toronto Blue Jays have been playing poorly with the added pressure. This team feels very much like the Marlins situation last year when everyone expected them to be this great team and it never panned out. Ironically enough, the Jays traded for some of the same guys that the Marlins added last season - Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle. In addition, they traded for Josh Johnson and today's starter R.A. Dickey. Dickey has been a disaster so far for Toronto posting an 8.44 ERA and 1.97 WHIP in his first couple of starts. He is a rhythm pitcher who is lights out when he has it and garbage when he doesn't. Right now he certainly doesn't have it, so we'll take Shields and the Royals in this one.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-13-13 | Cincinnati: J Cueto -150 v. Pittsburgh: J Locke | 1-3 | Loss | -150 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
8-unit Play Take #907 Cincinnati Reds over Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05pm ET) Good matchup for the Cincinnati Reds as they go up against inexperienced left-hander Jeff Locke of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Locke has only made 11 starts in his big league career, bouncing back and forth between the majors and minor leagues the last couple of seasons. He has a career 5.84 ERA and the Pirates aren't 100% sure that he's quite ready yet. Locke didn't look too good against the Dodgers in a pitcher-friendly park in Los Angeles. And if he thought that lineup was tough, he's going to be really impressed with what the Reds bring to the dish. Cincinnati crushes left-handed pitching over the last couple of seasons and their offense has been hitting on all cylinders in 2013 as they're third in the National League in runs scored thus far. It also won't hurt that the Reds ace Johnny Cueto is on the mound for this one. It took me awhile to become a Cueto believer, but the guy is a legitimate Cy Young candidate every season and just seems to get a little better each year. He's throwing the ball with a little more velocity lately and that will make him even deadlier on the hill. All signs point to a Reds winner today.
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04-13-13 | Chicago (A): C Sale -128 v. Cleveland: Mcallister | 4-9 | Loss | -128 | 5 h 50 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #917 Chicago White Sox over Cleveland Indians (4:05pm ET) The Chicago White Sox have quite a few holes on their team. The bottom half of their lineup is fairly weak, they are short one or two arms in the bullpen and the starting rotation could use another strong arm to balance things out. But one guy who makes up for a lot of those shortcoming is today's starter Chris Sale. The 24-year old southpaw is one of the best up-and-coming pitchers in the American League and he still has a lot of room to improve. That's a scary thought for the rest of the league and the Cleveland Indians won't have much fun facing him today. Sale has pitched well against the Tribe in his short career and there's no reason to expect that to change today as he has dominated in his first two starts of the season. The Indians will counter with Zach McAllister. The right-hander is a decent young pitcher that has a little bit of potential, but he needs some seasoning. He spent six seasons in the Yankees farm system and a couple with the Indians before finally breaking into the majors for good last year. He went 6-8 with a 4.24 ERA and did a decent job giving his team a shot to win every game. Unfortunately for the Indians, they're going to need better than that to win today and I just don't think McAllister is capable of totally shutting someone down yet. This one should be easy for the White Sox.
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04-13-13 | Detroit: Verlander v. Oakland: B Anderson +110 | 7-3 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 49 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #920 Oakland A's over Detroit Tigers (4:05pm ET) The Oakland A's are simply on a roll. They've won nine straight games and are going for 10 this afternoon against the Detroit Tigers. It won't be any easy task as they go up against the best in the game in Justin Verlander. However, Verlander hasn't thrown that great in his first two starts and the A's might be catching him at the perfect time before he gets into a groove. Oakland also has an ace of their own to battle Verlander and that is left-hander Brett Anderson. The 25-year old is a dark horse candidate for the Cy Young this season if he can stay healthy as he has excellent stuff. Both of these teams can mash the ball and they might be the best two offenses in the American League. So I think that this game will come down the bullpens and that's where the A's have a decided advantage. The Tigers pen has been struggling in the late innings all season and this game should be very tight. I like the A's to win it in the late innings, just like they did last night.
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04-12-13 | Detroit: M Scherzer -110 v. Oakland: B Colon | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
10-unit Play Take #973 Detroit Tigers over Oakland A's (10:05pm ET) Today's game between the Detroit Tigers and Oakland A's might feature one of the lowest prices you are going to see all season with Max Scherzer on the hill. The big right-hander was probably the best pitcher in baseball down the stretch last season and is coming into his own as a starting pitcher. He was on many people's Cy Young candidate list before the season, but this game certainly isn't priced like it. He goes up against veteran Bartolo Colon today in Oakland. Colon is a decent pitcher who keeps his team in the game, but the Detroit lineup is scary good and I don't think he has enough stuff to shut them down. Oakland has won eight straight games, but I think their streak ends today against one of the American League's best.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-11-13 | Texas Rangers v. Seattle Mariners -154 | 4-3 | Loss | -154 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
2-unit Play Take #914 Seattle Mariners over Texas Rangers (10:10pm ET) We all know that Felix Hernandez is one of the best pitchers in the game. He's been excellent since he broke into the league in 2005.What he hasn't been able to do, however, is amass a great winning percentage. He's just 99-77 in his nine seasons as the Mariners haven't given him much run support over the years. That is starting to change as Seattle finally has a lineup capable of winning some games by itself. Mike Morse was brought over in a trade with Washington and they also added Kendrys Morales and Raul Ibanez. This team isn't going to lead the league in runs scored, but they should be somewhere in the middle of the pack which is good enough to get wins if they can get good efforts from their starters. The Rangers have a tough lineup to navigate, but I think this team is a bit overrated based on the fact that they play in a good hitter's park. Losing Josh Hamilton is also pretty big and I'm not sure this team is going to crush the ball like they have been in recent years. If King Felix just has an average game the M's should pick up a win today at home. Take Seattle here.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-10-13 | Baltimore Orioles v. Boston Red Sox -135 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -135 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #972 Boston Red Sox over Baltimore Orioles (7:10pm ET) We've been riding the Boston Red Sox pretty hard this season and are 3-for-3 so far. I still think that the betting markets are underrating just how much this team has improved over last year when they won only 69 games. There bullpen is definitely better after making some key additions in the offseason, and adding Ryan Dempster in the starting rotation is a plus as well. Dempster is a gamer who always puts up better numbers than what his stuff looks like in person. Anyone who can win more games than he loses pitching for the Cubs definitely has my respect. Today he'll go up against the Jake Arrieta and the Baltimore Orioles. Arrieta is a young up-and-coming pitcher that has good stuff, but he still has a lot to learn at the big league level. In 24 games last season he posted a 6.20 ERA and had a propensity for giving up the long ball. He certainly has better stuff than his ERA indicates, but he's still a below average pitcher at the moment and is a guy that a balanced Red Sox lineup should take advantage of. I think the Orioles are also getting a little too much credit as a team based on what they did last year. They're going to struggle to win anywhere near the 93 games they won in 2012, and I'm projecting them for the basement in the AL East. Take the Red Sox at home at a good price that you won't see for long.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-09-13 | Colorado Rockies +130 v. San Francisco Giants | 6-9 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #913 Colorado Rockies over San Francisco Giants (10:15pm ET) Today's play on the Colorado Rockies isn't so much of an endorsement of their team as it is a play against Tim Lincecum and the Giants. Betting against Lincecum was one of the wisest investments of 2012 and it appears as if he's fooling people again considering how big of a favorite he's posted as. The fact that he pitched well in last year's World Series has some thinking that he's turned the corner, but he had an awful spring and his velocity still isn't anywhere close to where it was when he was winning Cy Young awards. Until we see some signs that Lincecum has it all together, we'll be on the other side a lot.
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04-09-13 | Tampa Bay Rays +120 v. Texas Rangers | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #919 Tampa Bay Rays over Texas Rangers (8:05pm ET) The line on this game is a bit of a head-scratcher. The Rangers will send out rookie Nicolas Tepesch to make his career debut against the Tampa Bay Rays. Tepesch was a bit of a surprise making the Rangers rotation in the spring. Most thought that he would get more seasoning in the minor leagues before being called up either later this season or in 2014. But he's here now and it will be interesting to see what he can do. His future is certainly bright but it will be tough to expect a whole lot from him in his first big league start. The Rays are one of the best teams in the league at putting together scouting reports, and I'm pretty confident that they will have a good gameplan against Tepesch even though they haven't seen him before. The Rays will go with right-hander Roberto Hernandez in today's game. He looked good in his first start of the season and Joe Maddon really likes his stuff. The Rays have done amazing things with their starters over the last few seasons, so I'm confident that they see some huge potential in Hernandez and that he'll be a productive major league starter. The Rays are also one of my favorite teams to bet on because they do all of the little things on the diamond that win you baseball games. They play great defense, run the bases well and make excellent in-game managerial decisions. I actually had the Rays as a slight favorite in this one according to my numbers, so we'll gladly take them as an underdog.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-09-13 | Atlanta Braves v. Miami Marlins +155 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
2-unit Play Take #906 Miami Marlins over Atlanta Braves (7:10pm ET) Anyone who even half way pays attention to baseball knows that the Miami Marlins are bad. But to be this big of an underdog at home versus a pitcher who is struggling right now is certainly a bit of an overreaction this early in the season. That struggling pitcher is Kris Medlen of the Atlanta Braves, and his numbers haven't been pretty since the beginning of the spring. In six starts in Spring Training, Medlen posted a 7.23 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. He followed that up with a mediocre effort against the Phillies in his first regular season start. He's certainly not the pitcher that he was down the stretch last year when he was untouchable. The Marlins have left-hander Wade LeBlanc going for them today. The 28-year old right-hander had a good spring and sports some pretty good stuff on the mound. The Braves don't have a lineup built to hit southpaws, so I think they'll struggle to put runs on the board in this one. This game should be close enough to warrant a small play on the large home underdog. Take the Marlins.
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04-09-13 | New York Mets v. Philadelphia Phillies -179 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
2-unit Play Take #904 Philadelphia Phillies over New York Mets (7:05pm ET) The Philadelphia Phillies are off to a slow start this season at 2-5. Their pitching staff has been atrocious as the starters have a combined 6.75 ERA while the relievers are worse at an ERA of 7.79. But the good news is that they have a guy on the mound that can take care of that problem today - Cliff Lee. The left-hander was dominant in his last start throwing eight innings of shutout ball while striking out nine and walking none. There's no reason to believe that the 34-year old won't throw another strong seven or eight innings and giving way to closer Jonathan Papelbon to shut it down. Their opponent the New York Mets will give it their best shot with right-hander Dillon Gee today. Gee had a rough spring and wasn't exactly sharp in his first outing of the regular season against the Padres. The Phillies have been swinging the bats pretty well, so I like their chances to knock Gee around early and often. The line on this game is rich, but there's still value to be had on Philadelphia.
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04-09-13 | New York (A): A Pettitte -125 v. Cleveland: C Carrasco | Top | 14-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #917 New York Yankees over Cleveland Indians (7:05pm ET) The New York Yankees are a beleaguered squad right now with half of their everyday lineup on the disabled list and very few good options on the bench to plug in. However, if there's a team out there that can face the pressure of having to perform without all of their weapons, it's the Yankees. This is where playing in New York actually works to your advantage. No one is expecting much from this team right now and they have the chance to prove everyone wrong. They have a guy on the mound that knows something about winning under desperate circumstances and that's Andy Pettitte. The 40-year old left-hander can still pitch as he posted some of his best numbers in half a season last year. He was sharp in his 2013 debut and he still has good enough stuff to win close to 20 games if he stays healthy. He'll get a Cleveland Indians lineup full of left-handed bats, which should make it even easier on him in this one. I like what the Indians did in the offseason, but they are going to have a tough time of it today. Their starter Carlos Carrasco is making his first start in two seasons after he had Tommy John surgery. He looked pretty good in the spring but you can expect plenty of nerves today as he hasn't pitched since September 2011. The Yankees offense isn't spectacular with all of the injuries, but they showed that they can still mash scoring 11 runs against Cleveland yesterday. I like the Yankees to beat up on the Tribe again today.
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04-08-13 | Baltimore Orioles v. Boston Red Sox -142 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 18 m | Show | |
Doc
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04-07-13 | Boston Red Sox +125 v. Toronto Blue Jays | 13-0 | Win | 125 | 2 h 58 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #917 Boston Red Sox over Toronto Blue Jays (1:05pm ET) The Boston Red Sox are a vastly improved team and you can already see the confidence in watching them play. At this time last season they were dealing with a host of injuries, turmoil in the clubhouse and a manager they couldn't stand. Now they're more relaxed and more focused at the same time. Today they'll send their ace Jon Lester to the mound. Lester had an excellent spring and it carried over to his first start of the season when he shut down the Yankees on Opening Day. He's coming off of a terrible 2012 campaign, but he worked on his mechanics a little bit in the offseason and has returned to his old form. He'll go up against a guy that looks to be on the other end of the spectrum. Dickey won the NL Cy Young in 2012 and hasn't seemed to find his way in 2013 yet. Moving over to the Toronto Blue Jays is a brand new experience for the knuckleballer as he needs to learn a new league and get comfortable with his new catchers. Clearly it's taking him some time as he had a bad spring and didn't look comfortable in his first start of the season where he surrendered four runs and walked four in just six innings of work. The Jays lineup also may be without star Jose Bautista for a third straight day. He's struggling with an ankle injury and that is a huge hole in the middle of the order. The starting pitching matchup favors Boston today and without Bautista they probably have the better lineup as well. Take the Red Sox as an underdog this afternoon.
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04-06-13 | San Diego Padres +132 v. Colorado Rockies | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #961 San Diego Padres over Colorado Rockies (8:10pm ET) The Colorado Rockies have an awful starting rotation this season. But no matter how bad it gets, resurrecting Jon Garland from the dead just doesn't seem like a wise decision. Garland has only made nine starts since the end of the 2010 season as he's battled injuries and ineffectiveness. I give him credit for trying to make a comeback and persevering, but he picked the wrong place to make it happen. Garland is a fly ball pitcher that pitches to contact. Those are two qualities that don't translate well in Coors Field - the site of his 2013 debut. It could get really ugly for the veteran, so the Colorado bullpen better be ready. Pitching for San Diego is former A's starter Tyson Ross. He had a very tough year in 2012 with Oakland, but a lot of that to do with an abnormally high BABIP and strand rate. He's a groundball pitcher and that should suit him well today. We should see plenty of runs in today's contest, but I like the Padres to score more of them. Take San Diego in this spot.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-06-13 | Washington Nationals v. Cincinnati Reds -111 | 7-6 | Loss | -111 | 2 h 52 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #952 Cincinnati Reds over Washington Nationals (1:10pm ET) The Washington Nationals are everyone's favorite World Series pick in 2013, and with good reason. They are probably the most complete team in the major leagues and feature some of the most exciting young players that the game has to offer. With that being said, in the betting markets we're looking for value. You're rarely going to find it with a team like Washington as all of their accolades are already accounted for, and the value is often times on the other side. We have a situation like that today where the Cincinnati Reds are not getting enough respect at home with a more favorable pitching matchup. Ross Detwiler is a crafty left-hander that has quietly put up pretty good numbers in his career. However, the Reds crush left-handed pitching and especially at home. On the other side is right-hander Mike Leake. He wasn't supposed to crack the Reds rotation, but with Aroldis Chapman returning to his closer role, Leake was inserted into the fifth slot. Leake was disappointed that he originally wasn't going to be in the plans for a rotation spot, so I think he'll come in with a chip on his shoulder early on in the season proving that he belongs. The Reds won 15-0 against the Nats yesterday, and I think we'll see how carry over today as the Reds cruise again.
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04-05-13 | St. Louis Cardinals +111 v. San Francisco Giants | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 39 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #903 St. Louis Cardinals over San Francisco Giants (4:35pm ET) The San Francisco Giants won the World Series last season, and Barry Zito was a big reason why. The left-hander was 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA in three starts during the playoff run and he won Game 1 of the World Series. That's what people have fresh in their minds and it has a bigger impact on the line than it should. Most people forgot that Zito almost lost his job in the rotation during the regular season and was almost left off of the playoff roster entirely. The last two seasons have not been productive for Zito during the regular season. In 45 games, the 34-year old has a combined 4.54 ERA and has seen a sharp decline in his strikeout rate. He doesn't have the dominant curveball anymore and I'd be surprised if he keeps his job in the rotation for the entire season. He gets quite a challenge tonight facing the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cards still have one of the most potent lineups in the National League after finishing second in runs scored in 2012. Hurler Jake Westbrook takes the hill for St. Louis tonight. He's an extreme groundball pitcher, which should be a strong advantage against a Giants team that makes good contact. I made the line on this game St. Louis -120, so we have plenty of value on the away team here.
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04-04-13 | Detroit Tigers -135 v. Minnesota Twins | Top | 2-8 | Loss | -135 | 3 h 31 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #959 Detroit Tigers over Minnesota Twins (1:10pm ET) There weren't many starting pitchers who threw better than Rick Porcello did during Spring Training. The 24-year old righty went 4-1 with a 3.00 ERA and 0.75 WHIP, in addition to posting 21 strikeouts and no walks. That's pretty impressive and this could be the year that Porcello finally breaks through and realizes his potential. He was one of Detroit's most highly touted prospects when he broke into the big leagues, and this will be his fifth season. He'll go up against a weak-hitting Minnesota Twins lineup today. Last year the Twins were 10th in the American League in runs scored - and that was with Denard Span and Ben Revere, who have both departed. I like the fact that Porcello gets an easier lineup to deal with in his 2013 debut, as it could be a huge confidence builder for him. Even if Porcello runs into some trouble, he is backed by one of the best offenses in all of baseball. Returning from injury is Victor Martinez, who didn't play a single inning last season for the Tigers. He's an offensive machine and slots in right behind Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder. Detroit also added outfielder Torii Hunter, who had one of his best seasons last year. New addition Mike Pelfrey will be tasked with trying to slow down the Tigers lineup. The right-hander is returning from reconstructive elbow surgery last year, so there's no telling if his arm strength is going to be up to snuff or not. Even if it is, Pelfrey comes over from the National League where posted a career 4.36 ERA in eight seasons with the Mets. Coming to the American League won't be any easier, and he's going to get a nice welcome by the Tigers today. Take Detroit in what has the makings of a blowout.
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04-04-13 | Los Angeles Angels +108 v. Cincinnati Reds | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 47 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #971 Los Angeles Angels over Cincinnati Reds (12:35pm ET) Today's game between the Los Angeles Angels and the Cincinnati Reds is a potential World Series matchup in October. The first two games of the series were very tight, with each team winning one making this the rubber match of the series. The Angels made a huge splash in the offseason by signing outfielder Josh Hamilton away from the Rangers. The Angels already had the best offense in baseball on a park-adjusted basis in 2012. Adding Hamilton makes this lineup scary good and we should see plenty of scoring outbursts this season. They haven't smacked the ball around too much over the first two games of the series, but you can't keep good hitters down for long. The Angels will get a crack at Reds hurler Bronson Arroyo today. The 36-year old right-hander is certainly on the downside of his career and he's never been much better than mediocre with a career 4.23 ERA and less than dominant stuff. He is a crafty pitcher, but the Angels are smart hitters and I expect them to knock out Arroyo before the 6th inning.
Los Angeles sends right-hander Joe Blanton to the mound. Despite putting up a 4.71 ERA last season, Blanton actually pitched very well. He posted the best strikeout rate of his career and lowered his walk rate. Unfortunately his strand rate was low, which means he was unlucky in when he gave up his hits. I expect a big year for Blanton who has the potential to be a solid mid 3's ERA pitcher. He'll face a Reds lineup that is without Ryan Ludwick, who was injured in the season opener. Cincinnati also doesn't hit right-handers very well as their lineup is stacked with right-handed bats. All signs point to Angel's victory today in Cincinnati and we love the underdog price tag. |
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04-03-13 | Philadelphia Phillies v. Atlanta Braves -132 | Top | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #908 Atlanta Braves over Philadelphia Phillies (7:10pm ET) We keep a list of pitchers to fade based on the Spring Training results, and Roy Halladay tops the list for 2013. The 35-year old right-hander posted a 6.06 ERA and 1.84 WHIP in six spring games against major leaguers. He also walked nine batters in 16.3 innings of work and his velocity was down 4-5 mph. There was absolutely nothing positive about Halladay's spring and it would be difficult to imagine that he can just flip the switch for the regular season. And to add even more of a challenge for Roy, he'll go up against his nemesis the Atlanta Braves today. Over the last three seasons, Halladay is only 3-3 with a 4.84 ERA against the Braves - his second worst mark in the National League in that time frame.
The Braves will counter with left-hander Paul Maholm today. The 30-year old came over from the Cubs last season in a trade and fit in very well with Atlanta. Maholm put up sensational numbers in the spring going 4-1 with a 1.53 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in seven starts. Many pitchers have come to the Braves from other teams and turned into studs, and I think Maholm can do the same. The Phillies don't hit southpaws very well, and there's a chance that Ryan Howard may not be in the lineup with a lefty taking the hill. If Maholm can get this game into the 7th inning, the Braves should have no problem finishing the game off with the best bullpen in the league. Craig Kimbrel is as close to automatic as you can get, and he has several quality setup men in front of him. This price seems much to low given Halladay's struggles, so we'll take Atlanta at home today as our 10 unit game. |
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04-02-13 | San Francisco Giants -101 v. Los Angeles Dodgers | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #955 San Francisco Giants over Los Angeles Dodgers (10:10pm ET) No team received as much attention in the offseason as the Los Angeles Dodgers did. After acquiring Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford and Josh Beckett from the Red Sox last season, the Dodgers went out and signed the most sought after starting pitcher on the market in Zack Greinke. Another signing that received much less attention was the signing of Korean pitcher Hyun-Jin Ryu, who will make his big league debut today for Los Angeles. Ryu wasn't pursued by as many teams as Yu Darvish was last season, as there are some question marks about how his stuff will translate in the major leagues. Darvish was roughed was pretty good in his first start of his MLB career last year, and we might see the same with Ryu if his nerves get the best of him.
The Giants are the defending champions and they kept virtually their entire roster intact for the 2013 season. However, they should benefit by having regulars Marco Scutaro and Hunter Pence for an entire season. Many people didn't realize that the Giants were the best hitting team in the National League last season on a park-adjusted basis. They led the league in runs scored on the road with their balanced lineup that seemingly always makes contact. Madison Bumgarner takes the ball for San Francisco today and he's dominated Dodgers' hitters over the last couple of seasons. The left-hander is poised for a big season in his fourth season in the bigs after posting three straight low 3 ERA seasons. Despite the additions by the Dodgers, the Giants still have a better lineup, a better bullpen and the more proven starting pitcher. This is an easy play on the Giants against the rookie. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-01-13 | Philadelphia Phillies +104 v. Atlanta Braves | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #911 Philadelphia Phillies over Atlanta Braves (7:10pm ET) We have a great season opening matchup between division rivals as the Atlanta Braves host the Philadelphia Phillies. Most of the prognosticators out there have pegged the Braves as a serious contender for the playoffs, with many picking them to secure a wild card spot in the National League. There's plenty to be excited about in adding the Upton brothers in the offseason and keeping the rest of the roster virtually intact after winning 94 games last season. However, neither of the Upton's had a particularly good season last year and there are question marks surrounding whether or not they'll ever be able to reach their full potential. I think the expectations may be a little bigger than what the Braves are capable of. Today's starter for Atlanta is Tim Hudson. The 37-year old is the veteran of the staff and definitely knows how to pitch, but his best years are clearly behind him. Last season he posted his worst ERA in seven seasons and his strikeout rate of 5.1 per nine innings was the worst of his professional career. He is a groundball specialist, and his groundball rate has slowed down considerably last season as well. This may the year that Hudson contemplates how much he has left in the tank, as I expect a 4.00+ ERA.
The Braves will go up against Phillies hurler Cole Hamels today. Unlike Hudson, Hamels is entering the prime of his career at the age of 29. He posted the best K/BB ratio of his career last season and finished at 17-6 with a 3.05 ERA. He's a serious Cy Young contender for 2013 and I'd put him in the top three favorites. Many have questioned whether the door has been closed on the Phillies as a contender in the National League. They are clearly a veteran team with many players declining, but I think they have one more run left in them. Chase Utley and Ryan Howard both missed significant time last season, and this team still won 81 games. They also added Michael Young to play third base, and that is a huge upgrade over the tandem that played their last season. The Phils also made some great additions to the bullpen at the end of last year and they should be among the best in the National League at shutting down opponents in the late innings. Don't' count out this Phillies team just yet. They can win this division still and I think they start the season off on the right foot with a victory against Hudson and the Braves. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-01-13 | Boston Red Sox -102 v. New York Yankees | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 2 h 51 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #915 Boston Red Sox over New York Yankees (1:05pm ET) Opening Day has finally arrived and what better way to welcome a new season than a matchup between two of baseball's biggest rivals - the Yankees and Red Sox. The Yankees come into today's opener as a complete mash unit. First basemen Mark Teixeira and centerfielder Curtis Granderson both suffered injuries during Spring Training and will miss at least the first month of the season. Alex Rodriguez was already out following hip surgery in the offseason and Derek Jeter is not quite ready yet after rehabbing an ankle injury. Not only is that four regulars out of action, but it's four former All-Stars. And this isn't a particularly deep Yankees squad, so the replacements include Vernon Wells, Eduardo Nunez and Jayson Nix. That's in addition to losing Nick Swisher, Raul Ibanez, Eric Chavez and Russell Martin in the offseason. Those four losses accounted for 80 home runs last season. Needless to say, the current lineup for New York is going to struggle to score runs on a consistent basis. They do have their ace CC Sabathia on the mound today, but he's known to be a slow starter in April so we probably won't see vintage Sabathia.
The Red Sox had a good offseason, completely rebuilding their team in a matter of months after losing 93 games last season. They went out and signed Shane Victorino, Mike Napoli and Jonny Gomes to improve the lineup, and added Joel Hanrahan and Koji Uehara to bolster the bullpen. In addition, they will start rookie phenom Jackie Bradley in leftfield. Bradley terrorized pitchers in the Spring Training and was easily the best player out there for the Red Sox. As a result, I expect marked improvement from Boston in run scoring and run prevention. Speaking of run prevention, starting pitcher Jon Lester will trot out to the mound today in an effort to wipe the slate clean. He had a horrid 2012 season that he doesn't want to remember, posting a 4.82 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in 205.3 innings of work. He was fairly unlucky last season with lots of his batted balls falling for hits, but he also saw a big decline in his strikeout rate. However, he found some flaws in his mechanics last season that he addressed in the spring. The results - a 0.75 ERA and 0.50 WHIP with 20 strikeouts and 4 walks in 24 innings of work. It's only Spring Training, but those are outstanding numbers and I expect a big bounce back season from Lester in 2013. I really like the additions that Boston made in the offseason and I find it difficult to believe that the Yankees will be able to keep pace with all of their injuries. Take Boston in the underdog role today. |
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10-28-12 | San Francisco Giants v. Detroit Tigers -143 | 4-3 | Loss | -143 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
3 Unit Play Take #908 Detroit over San Francisco (8:05pm est): Getting a nice discount here on the Detroit Tigers due to some of the rumors that Max Scherzer isn't fully healthy. Nothing could be further from the truth here for him as the right-hander with filthy stuff has been electric of late again. Scherzer is coming off a 10 strikeout performance against the Yankees his last start out and has allowed just one earned run in his last three outings. In fact his ERA in his last eleven trips to the hill is an unbelievable 1.39 overall and better yet he hasn't allowed over three runs in any of those starts either. The Tigers are 12-4 in his last 16 starts and are 8-2 at home with Scherzer on the hill versus a team with a winning record. Overall the Tigers have won 41 of their last 56 home games.
The San Francisco Giants have caught every break so far in this series and it's really been a story of what the Tigers haven't done and not as much what the Giants have. Look no further than last night's game to see an example of that as Tigers pitcher have overpowered Giants hitters, striking out 12 guys last evening which is a nice accomplishment considering the fact the Giants strike as little as any team in the league. On the other end of things Detroit's offense was once again not stepping up in big posts and had more to do with their failures than what Giants starter Ryan Vogelsong did in the game as Vogelsong actually walked four and struck out only three in what was a start where he didn't have his best stuff. Matt Cain takes the hill in this one and he has been nothing special so far in the playoffs with a post-season ERA of 3.52 overall. The Tigers and their fans are looking for anything to get themselves going, an early run, a lead, something but it hasn't happened yet. Betting it will here in this one and when it does I am expecting them to settle in a bit and play their game. Play Detroit tonight. |
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10-25-12 | Detroit Tigers v. San Francisco Giants +109 | 0-2 | Win | 109 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
1-Unit Play. Take #904 San Francisco over Detroit (8 p.m., Thursday, Oct. 25) The Giants are hot and while I don't think that they are going to sweep this series I definitely think they are going to win it 4-1 or 4-2. This team is on fire right now. They are strong at every position on the roster and they are playing great baseball. The Tigers were a disappointment for much of the year and they just don't do enough of the little things necessary to win these types of games. This is more of a macro play on the Giants since I released my series play on them yesterday. I don't understand this number at all and I think that San Fran is severely undervalued in this series. Take the Giants.
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10-21-12 | St. Louis Cardinals v. San Francisco Giants -121 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
3 Unit Play. #924 Take San Francisco -120 over St. Louis (7:35 p.m., Sunday Oct 21 FOX) Why not pick the home team in this big Game #6! San Francisco wins this game in front of their home crowd and again the Giants get outstanding starting pitching. Look for the Giants to hit Carpenter early and if the Giants score first this game will go to a Game #7.
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10-19-12 | San Francisco Giants v. St. Louis Cardinals -155 | 5-0 | Loss | -155 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
7-unit Play Take #920 St. Louis Cardinals over San Francisco Giants (8:07pm EST) It ends tonight! It's close out time for the St. Louis Cardinals in Game 5 of the National League Championship Series. The Cards lead the San Francisco Giants 3-1 in the series and are just one game away from their second straight trip to the World Series, where they would face the Detroit Tigers. St. Louis has been excellent in pressure situations and today's game is big because they don't want to travel back to San Francisco for a potential Game 6 and 7. Lance Lynn gets the ball for the Cardinals. While the 25-year old right-hander was a little shaky in his two postseason starts, he was in good form down the stretch after being placed back into the starting rotation. I don't expect him to throw a gem tonight, but the good news is that he doesn't have to. Lynn should get plenty of run support with the Cardinals hitters going up against Barry Zito of the Giants.
It's hard to believe that manager Bruce Bochy is giving Zito another start in the postseason. His regular season didn't warrant getting any innings in the playoffs and he certainly didn't improve his case during his only postseason outing. Zito had a 4.15 ERA and 1.39 WHIP during the regular season while pitching in an extreme pitcher's park. In his only postseason start, Zito lasted only 2 2/3 innings and couldn't locate any of his pitches. He'll also be at a disadvantage against the Cardinals, as they hit southpaws very well. This is definitely not the guy that the Giants want on the mound to keep their playoff hopes alive. The Cardinals have outplayed the Giants in every way during the series so far, and I don't expect anything to change tonight in St. Louis. The Cardinals appear to have destiny on their side once again with another trip to the World Series. Take St. Louis as our 7-unit Playoff Game. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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10-18-12 | New York Yankees -114 v. Detroit Tigers | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -114 | 5 h 42 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #917 New York Yankees over Detroit Tigers (8:05pm EST) A day off. Sometimes that's all a team needs to regroup and clear their minds. Down 3-0 in the series, the New York Yankees could use definitely use any kind of break to thwart the momentum of the Detroit Tigers. Yesterday's rain out may have provided that as the teams showed up to the park to find out that the game was postponed until Thursday. If you're the Yankees, you have the guy you want on the mound in CC Sabathia. He's been the horse for this team for years and has been pitching well of late. Over his last five starts (including two in the postseason), Sabathia is 4-0 with a 1.51 ERA and 0.77 WHIP. His strikeout-to-walk ratio over that span is 44-7. It certainly doesn't get much better than that. He'll also go up against a Tigers team that really struggles against left-handed pitching, making Sabathia even more comfortable on the mound.
On the other side will be right-hander Max Scherzer for the Tigers. The 28-year old enjoyed his best season to date but it didn't end the way that he wanted. Scherzer suffered from weakness in his pitching shoulder down the stretch and also injured his ankle during a postgame celebration. He wasn't the same after he came back. His velocity was down several miles per hour on his fastball and he couldn't go deep into the game. The Tigers are reporting that he is fine now, but I'd be surprised if he can go more than six innings today. That means we'll get a heavy dose of a Tigers bullpen that hasn't exactly been reliable this postseason. There's no longer very much pressure on the Yankees in this series as almost everyone has penciled the Tigers into the World Series. They should play better as a result and get a win this afternoon. Take the Yankees at a small price. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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10-14-12 | St. Louis Cardinals +120 v. San Francisco Giants | 6-4 | Win | 120 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #903 St. Louis Cardinals over San Francisco Giants (8:05pm EST) The National League Championship Series gets underway tonight as the San Francisco Giants host the St. Louis Cardinals. St. Louis comes into the series on a major high after winning a dramatic Game 5 in Washington in the NLDS when they scored four runs in the ninth inning to win 9-7. That was on the heels of a great wild card win against the Braves, where an infield fly call aided the Redbirds in advancing. This team clearly doesn't quit, as they pulled several games out of their hat last postseason as well. I'm expecting some of their momentum to carry into tonight's game as they look to capitalize on the team's energy. Pitching for the Cardinals will be right-hander Lance Lynn. The 25-year old has bounced back and forth between the starting rotation and bullpen lately, but he's in the rotation to stay now with the injury to Jaime Garcia. Lynn had a great season going 18-7 with a 3.78 ERA and 1.32 WHIP while his role with the team changed several times. He's pitched better as a starter this year and had a nice run down the stretch in the regular season as a starting pitcher. In his last four starts, Lynn went 4-0 with a 2.19 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. He'll face a Giants lineup that has been very inconsistent at the plate lately.
Madison Bumgarner gets the ball for San Francisco tonight. The left-hander put together a nice 2012 campaign at 16-11 with a 3.37 ERA, but he really struggled down the stretch. Over his last seven starts of the regular season, the southpaw went 2-4 with a 6.23 ERA. His control was spotty as he walked 17 batters during that span. His woes continued in the playoffs as he only lasted 4 1/3 innings while surrendering four earned runs in his only start in the NLDS against the Reds. The Cardinals don't have the kind of lineup that allows a pitcher to straighten things out. There's no doubt that they're aware of Bumgarner's struggles and will be patient while he struggles with command. St. Louis also hits left-handers very well, so it's going to be even tougher on Bumgarner. I'd be a little surprised if he can make it past five innings in this one. I like the Cardinals to jump out to an early lead and hold on for a Game 1 victory. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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10-12-12 | St. Louis Cardinals +126 v. Washington Nationals | Top | 9-7 | Win | 126 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #941 St. Louis Cardinals over Washington Nationals (8:35pm EST) It's Game 5 of the National League Division Series between the St. Louis Cardinals and Washington Nationals tonight in the nation's capital. Each team has won two games in this series, but in very different ways. In the two games that the Cardinals won, they absolutely dominated by a combined score of 20-4 behind their potent lineup. The Nationals won each of their games by the slimmest of margins - one run. And those wins included a late rally in the 8th inning to win one game and a walk-off home run in the bottom of the ninth in another. Those were both coin flip games that the Nats came out on top. Needless to say, they're lucky to still be alive in this series.
Adam Wainwright will go up against Gio Gonzalez in tonight's showdown. From a pure numbers standpoint, Gio had a little bit better year than Wainwright did in 2012. However, Wainwright was much better in the second half of the season as he was slow to recover from Tommy John surgery early on. Gonzalez scuffled a bit down the stretch and was much better in April and May. Wainwright has also pitched in many more big games that Gio has, and experience like that is invaluable in pressure situations like this one. The Cardinals as a team have also been through this before (most notably last season) and that should be an advantage over a Nationals team that hasn't even appeared in the playoffs before. There aren't really many reasons to like Washington in this game. The Cardinals are swinging the bats better in this series, have the starting pitcher in better current form, and have more playoff experience as a team. It's hard to believe St. Louis is an underdog in this one, as I have them as a slight favorite. We'll gladly take the price on St. Louis here to advance. |
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10-10-12 | San Francisco Giants v. Cincinnati Reds -140 | 8-3 | Loss | -140 | 5 h 22 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #928 Cincinnati Reds over San Francisco Giants (4:07pm EST) Game 4 of the National League Division Series goes this afternoon in Cincinnati where the Reds get another chance to eliminate the San Francisco Giants. Cincinnati has dominated this series thus far, outscoring the Giants 15-4 combined in the first three games. Homer Bailey turned in a gem in yesterday's game as he took a no-hitter into the seventh inning. Unfortunately the Reds offense didn't do their part and the Giants were able to win it 2-1 in extra innings. Dominant pitching has been the story for the Reds this series, and today Mike Leake will be called on to keep that going. Leake wasn't even on the playoff roster until Johnny Cueto was injured in Game 1. As a result, I think he'll be pitching with a chip on his shoulder today. Leake had an up and down season at 8-9 with a 4.58 ERA and 1.35 WHIP, but he was very unlucky. His home run rate was enormous for the amount of flyballs that he threw and that statistic usually regresses to the mean. With just average luck on home runs, his ERA is probably in the mid-3's this season.
The Reds will go up against southpaw Barry Zito in today's game. It's somewhat surprising that the Giants selected Zito as the fourth starter for this series when Tim Lincecum probably had the best second half of anyone in their rotation. Zito was 15-8 on the season, but his ERA was at 4.15 and his WHIP was 1.39 -and those numbers were in an extreme pitcher's park. At this point in his career, he's definitely a liability on the mound and not the guy you want pitching trailing the series 2-1. On top of that, the Reds were much better against left-handed pitching this season. Their OPS against right-handers was only .710, but against lefties they were 60 points better at .770. That was the biggest righty/lefty split in the league. I don't expect either one of today's starting pitchers to make it through six innings, so the bullpens will be a huge factor. That's an advantage for the Reds as they have several dominant arms in their pen including flame-thrower Aroldis Chapman. The Giants pen isn't terrible, but if this one is close in the late innings, I like the Reds to pull it out. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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10-07-12 | Washington Nationals v. St. Louis Cardinals +100 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 32 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #910 St. Louis Cardinals over Washington Nationals (3:07pm EST) Game 1 of the National League Division Series between the St. Louis Cardinals and Washington Nationals gets underway this afternoon. Due to the new playoff quirks this season, the game will be played in St. Louis even though the Nationals hold the top seed. The Cardinals come in with some momentum after winning the inaugural one-game wild card showdown against the Atlanta Braves after a nice stretch run to end the regular season. Adam Wainwright gets the ball for St. Louis in this one. The right-hander was 14-13 with a 3.94 ERA and 1.25 WHIP during the regular season, but he came on strong in the second half. Wainwright came back from Tommy John surgery to begin the season and it took him a little while before he was 100% and comfortable on the mound. From July 1st on, he had a 3.19 ERA and 1.16 WHIP and returned to the form that Cardinal fans were accustomed to. Wainwright faced the Nats in his last start of the season and shut them down allowing only one run in six innings of work while striking out five and walking one.
Gio Gonzalez goes for Washington and will have the unenviable task of facing the most potent lineup in the National League. The southpaw comes in with sparking numbers at 21-8 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. But unlike Carpenter, Gonzalez had a red hot start to the season and hit a few rough spots late in the season. He did a good job of suppressing runs in his last six starts of the season, but his strikeout-to-walk ratio and other peripheral statistics showed some regression. Bottom line, Gonzalez was a much better pitcher in April than he is right now. The Cardinals definitely have the edge in the hitting department, ranking 2nd in the National League in runs scored despite playing in a pitcher's park. The Nationals swung the bats better as the season went on, but they didn't win the division because of their offense. I like the fact that the Cardinals come in after winning the wild card game on Friday, and the Nationals have been sitting for almost four days. That should be an advantage for St. Louis, especially given that the Nats had to travel for this game. I expect Wainwright to pitch a good game today and the Cards offense to push across enough runs against Gonzalez to get the win in Game 1. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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10-05-12 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Atlanta Braves -167 | 6-3 | Loss | -167 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #902 Atlanta Braves over St. Louis Cardinals (5:07pm EST) If you have the choice of just one starter in a must-win situation, Kris Medlen probably wouldn't have been a name you would have thrown out there a couple of months ago. But since he joined the Braves' rotation, the 26- year old right-hander has been nothing short of amazing. In his 12 starts, Medlen is 9-0 with a 0.97 ERA and 0.80 WHIP and his strikeout-to-walk ratio is 84-10. No one is dominating hitters like he is right now. To top it all off, the Braves have won Medlen's last 23 starts dating back to last season - a major league record. That's correct, the Braves are 23-0 in his last 23 starts. That's quite a trend and should give the team tons of confidence heading into this evening's matchup. He'll go up against a dangerous Cardinals lineup, but one that hasn't hit as well down the stretch as they did earlier on in the season.
St. Louis will rely on the arm of Kyle Lohse to get them into the next round. It's a questionable decision as Adam Wainwright was available with plenty of rest. Lohse is 16-3 with a 2.86 ERA in 2012, but he's caught quite a few breaks with a low batting average on balls in play and low home run rate on fly balls. Lohse also has been known to feast on the weaker opponents. In fact, the Cardinals are also only 7-17 in Lohse's last 24 starts against teams with winning records. Many Cardinals fans would have preferred Wainwright in this spot, so it will be interesting to see how the decision plays out. Either way, I don't know if it will matter with the way that Medlen is throwing the ball. The Braves also have one of the best bullpens in the league and should be able to nail down the game once Medlen is done. St. Louis, on the other hand, has had a shaky bullpen all season long and that could be a problem. The line on this game is high but it's well warranted. The Braves should be closer to -200 in this wild card game, so we get some value on Atlanta. |
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10-03-12 | Texas Rangers v. Oakland A's -106 | Top | 5-12 | Win | 100 | 4 h 26 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #968 Oakland A's over Texas Rangers (3:35pm EST) The regular season is finally coming to end, but there is still meaningful baseball today in Oakland. The American League West division is up for grabs as the Texas Rangers and Oakland A's come into today's matchup with identical 93-68 records. What a season it has been for the A's. Nobody expected them to contend with a payroll less than half of the Rangers and one-third of the Angels, but they're here now. The key to the success of the A's has been the development of their young pitching, and today's starter A.J. Griffin is one of those guys. The rookie right-hander has only played half of the season, but has made a huge impact filling in for injured starters. He comes in at 7-1 with a 2.71 ERA and 1.05 WHIP on the season and no start is bigger than the one he is making today. Today's game will decide who the division winner is and who the wild card is.
Ryan Dempster gets the ball for the Rangers this afternoon. He was acquired from the Cubs near the trade deadline to bolster the team's starting rotation. Since the acquisition, Dempster has had a bit of trouble adjusting to life in the American League. His ERA in the AL is only 4.64 ERA to go along with a 1.39 WHIP. The Rangers will need to give him plenty of run support today, but I'm not confident that they are going to be able to do that. The Rangers offense gets a bit overrated playing in Arlington, and they are only 6th in the AL in runs scored on the road while Oakland is actually 3rd. As a result, the stadiums these teams play in are actually masking the fact that the A's have a better offense than the Rangers. If you're measuring momentum at this point, the A's are off the charts right now and Texas is slumping. Oakland is 50-25 since the All-Star break for an amazing .667 winning percentage. The Rangers, meanwhile, have been sputtering down the stretch going 16-16 in their last 32 contests. Oakland is simply the better team right now, they have the better starting pitcher on the mound today and they're at home. Why this line isn't at least -130 is beyond me. Take Oakland this afternoon as our Game of the Day. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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10-02-12 | Los Angeles Angels v. Seattle Mariners +110 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 110 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #930 Seattle Mariners over Los Angeles Angels (10:10pm EST) It's official - the Los Angeles Angels have been eliminated from playoff contention. After Oakland's victory last night over Texas, the Angels were dealt with the reality that all of their big spending in the offseason hasn't paid off yet. There was a lot of pressure on this team to win, but that's no excuse for not making the postseason. I don't expect the team's heart to be in today's game against Seattle given the circumstances. They're likely to sleep walk through these last two regular season games as they look ahead to the offseason. Today's starting pitcher for the Halos is Dan Haren. It's been a difficult season for the 32-year old. He's fought off injury issues for the first time in his career and comes in at 12-12 with a 4.32 ERA and 1.29 WHIP - his worst numbers in eight years. His mound opponent is right-hander Hisashi Iwakuma. The rookie has flown under the radar this season posting some really good numbers. He's 8-5 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.28 WHIP on the season and has gotten better in each start. In his last eight starts, Iwakuma is 5-2 with a 2.06 ERA. The M's definitely have the better starting pitcher going today and are at home. Throw in the fact that the Angels will be a bit deflated and that adds up to a nice underdog play on Seattle today.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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10-01-12 | Los Angeles Angels v. Seattle Mariners -106 | 8-4 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #980 Seattle Mariners over Los Angeles Angels (10:10pm EST) The linesmakers seem to be overcompensating in today's matchup between the Seattle Mariners and Los Angeles Angels. Sure the Angels really need a win here to keep their slim playoff hopes alive, but they're going up against one of the game's best tonight. The Angels are currently three games behind the A's for the last wild card spot with only three games remaining and would need an absolute miracle to take it. They would need to sweep Seattle this series, hope Oakland gets swept at home versus Texas and then beat the A's in a one-game tiebreaker. That's a total of seven games that they need to go their way. I'm sure the Angels aren't going to just give up, but they know their backs are up against it. It's not going to be an easy go of it today versus Cy Young candidate Felix Hernandez. King Felix is 13-8 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 2012. He's coming off of back-to-back great pitching performances against these very same Angels and the Orioles. C.J. Wilson will be tasked with trying to keep the Mariners at bay today. He hasn't been sharp in his last few outings. Over his last three starts, Wilson has a 6.23 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. His last start was against the M's and he only went 5 1/3 innings while allowing three earned runs. Getting Hernandez at a -105 price at home is almost always a good bet unless he's going up against another ace, which he is not. The Angels are getting just a little bit too much credit from the oddsmakers today because they're still technically in the playoff chase. That adjustment isn't warranted, and we'll be on the side of Seattle.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-30-12 | Washington Nationals v. St. Louis Cardinals -135 | 4-10 | Win | 100 | 2 h 55 m | Show | |
6-unit Play Take #910 St. Louis Cardinals over Washington Nationals (2:15pm EST) Today's game between the St. Louis Cardinals and Washington Nationals features one team that really needs a win and another that is likely to be resting a few guys today. The Dodgers are on the heels of the Cardinals after winning again last night, narrowing the wild card gap to just two games. Needless to say, the Cardinals are going to pull out all of the stops to get a victory today. Statistically speaking, the Cardinals are the second best team in the National League with a +110 run differential. They've struggled in close games this season due to a porous bullpen, but have seemed to straighten things out there. Today's starter for St. Louis is Lance Lynn. Since being re-inserted into the rotation, Lynn is 3-0 with a 0.93 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. His strikeout-to-walk ratio over that span is 21-6. He's starting to make a case for a starting spot in the playoffs, and I think we get his best effort again today.
The Nationals have the division virtually wrapped up with a magic number of one with four games remaining for both Washington and Atlanta. Davey Johnson has already been quoted as saying that he's going to rest his guys a bit down the stretch so that they're fresh for the playoffs. Sunday is usually a day that some of the regulars get a day off, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a player or two sitting. Southpaw Ross Detwiler takes the ball for the Nats in this one. He's been hot and cold this season and is coming off a miserable performance in Philadelphia where he gave up five earned runs in five innings. Detwiler is up to the highest innings count of his career, so I think he's a bit wore down at this point. Washington is also only 5-17 in Detwiler's last 22 starts as a road underdog. This is a big game for St. Louis and I think they get the job done today. This is our 6-unit Game of the Day. |
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09-28-12 | Tampa Bay Rays -113 v. Chicago White Sox | 1-3 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #927 Tampa Bay Rays over Chicago White Sox (8:10pm EST) Yesterday wasn't quite the nail in the coffin for the White Sox, but it certainly felt like it. A tough 3-2 loss at the hands of the Tampa Bay Rays moved the White Sox to two games behind the Tigers in the American League Central. It was the eighth loss in nine-game for Chicago as they've let the late season pressure get to them. The Rays, meanwhile, have now won eight games in a row and are within two games of the final wild card spot. You can't count out this Rays team after what they did last year. They have one of the best managers in the game and he has his squad hitting on all cylinders right now.
Right-hander Jeremy Hellickson will try to extend the Rays' streak today. The 25-year old has been locked in for quite some time now. In his last eight starts, Hellickson has a 2.36 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. Due to poor run support, he's only notched two victories during that stretch but I like his chances today against a deflated White Sox club. Gavin Floyd takes his turn in the rotation today for Chicago. It's been a tough season for Floyd at 10-11 with a 4.56 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. He's been battling the injury bug and hasn't looked right on the mound all season. Chicago is also 0-6 in Floyd's last six starts as an underdog. Much like yesterday, we like the Rays because they are playing much better baseball at the moment and have the advantage on the mound. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-27-12 | Tampa Bay Rays -106 v. Chicago White Sox | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
5-unit Play Take #973 Tampa Bay Rays over Chicago White Sox (8:10pm EST) It's do or die time for the Tampa Bay Rays and Chicago White Sox with only one week left in the regular season. The Rays are currently three games behind in the wild card race. The White Sox are currently one game behind the Detroit Tigers in the American League Central race. I trust the Rays more down the stretch for a couple of reasons. First of all, Tampa has been playing much better baseball lately. They've won seven in a row and are 33-21 in their last 54 games, and are finally healthy after missing several key players throughout the season. The White Sox, meanwhile, have dropped seven of eight games and subsequently blown a strong division lead. The Rays also have one of the best managers in the game in Joe Maddon, and he led his team to a miraculous run down the stretch last season to earn a postseason berth. The White Sox have a rookie manager in Robin Ventura. He's had a good season, but he hasn't been through this as a manager before. As a result, I expect the Rays to perform a bit better in this pressure-packed four-game series that begins tonight.
The Rays will have a decided edge on the mound with James Shields going up against Jake Peavy. They don't call him Big Game James for nothing. The right-hander has continuously come up huge in big games like tonight and is in the midst of a nice run right now. In his last three outings, Shields has a 1.61 ERA and 0.72 WHIP to go along with a 21-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He's locked in at the moment while his opponent Peavy hasn't looked too hot. In his last five starts, the right-hander has a 5.34 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. Peavy got off to a great start in 2012, but the innings are wearing on him and he's not finishing strong. Not surprisingly, the Sox are 0-6 in Peavy's last six starts as an underdog. With the way the Rays and Sox are playing right now, the line on this one should be much higher. Take Tampa Bay as our Game of the Day. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-26-12 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. San Diego Padres -120 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #902 San Diego Padres over Los Angeles Dodgers (6:35pm EST) We've been riding the Padres bandwagon for quite some time now and it's paid off. Since the All-Star break, San Diego is 40-27 and has done a good job of playing spoiler down the stretch. Clayton Richard gets the ball for the Pads today and he loves pitching in Petco Park. On the road, Richard carries a hefty 4.64 ERA but it goes all the way down to 2.75 pitching in his home park. The Dodgers struggle against southpaws, so he'll have another advantage against their lineup today. Los Angeles sends right-hander Aaron Harang to the hill in this one. It hasn't been pretty for the 34-year old of late. In his last five starts, Harang hasn't complete six full innings in any of them and his ERA is 4.62 during that span. Even more discouraging, his strikeout-to-walk ratio in those five starts is only 13-12. He's either wearing down from a long season or battling a hidden injury. In any event, he's definitely someone you want to be fading at this point. The Dodgers are actually 0-7 in his last seven starts against teams with losing records. San Diego has been a juggernaut at home lately at 24-7 in their last 31 games in Petco. The Padres are just a better team right now and I have no problem laying this short price against a pitcher who can't locate his pitches right now.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-24-12 | Arizona Diamondbacks -149 v. Colorado Rockies | 2-4 | Loss | -149 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #907 Arizona Diamondbacks over Colorado Rockies (8:40pm EST) When is it over? That's what the Colorado Rockies keep saying about the 2012 regular season. They've been in the cellar of the National League West for the entire season and have endured a host of injuries to key players. At the moment, the disabled list includes Troy Tulowitzki, Todd Helton, Michael Cuddyer and Ramon Hernandez to name a few. Carlos Gonzalez is also nursing a hamstring injury and likely won't play tonight. The Rockies have dropped nine straight games and have lost their focus entirely. The games must go on however, and today they will go with right-hander Tyler Chatwood on the mound. The 22-year old doesn't appear to be ready for the major leagues yet. He checks in at 4-5 with a 5.73 ERA and 1.73 WHIP and has really struggled with his control. He's walking nearly as many batters as he's striking out on the season. The Rockies were giving him a shot to earn a spot in the rotation for next season, but the experiment has gone for a little bit too long.
The Diamondbacks are 77-75 on the season and are technically still alive for the last wild card spot. They have too many teams to pass to win it, but as long as the team feels like there is a tiny chance to do it you'll see maximum effort. Trevor Cahill pitches today for the Diamondbacks. He's been their most consistent starting pitcher all season. Cahill is 12-11 with a 3.89 ERA and 1.30 WHIP and consistently pitches quality games. He's allowed more than four earned runs only once in his 30 starts this season, which is remarkable given that he pitches in a hitter-friendly park in Arizona. Today he'll basically face a Triple-A lineup for the Rockies with all of the injuries that they are battling. If Cahill keeps them under that four-run mark, the D-Backs should be fine in this one. Take Arizona tonight. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-23-12 | Atlanta Braves v. Philadelphia Phillies -160 | 2-1 | Loss | -160 | 2 h 25 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #966 Philadelphia Phillies over Atlanta Braves (1:35pm EST) Today's game between the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves features one team hanging on for dear life in the playoff hunt and another that is trying to sew things up. The Phillies are four games in back of the second wild card spot, but they definitely haven't given up on the season. I give this team a ton of credit for continuing to compete despite an awful start to the season and numerous key injuries. They're true gamers and today they send the ultimate gamer to the mound in Cliff Lee. The southpaw had a very rocky beginning to the 2012 campaign and spent some time on the disabled list battling injuries. But he came back strong and is posting his usual numbers with a 3.27 ERA and 1.13 WHIP on the season. Over his last five starts, Lee has been locked in at 4-0 with a 1.02 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. His strikeout-to-walk ratio over that time is 33-3. Cliff Lee is definitely back and 100%.
Veteran Tim Hudson is one of the most respected pitchers in the National League. The guy knows how to pitch and has had a stellar career. However, he is slipping at age 37 and I've downgraded him significantly this season. He comes in at 15-6, but he's been fortunate to receive good run support and to pitch in front of an excellent bullpen. Hudson's ERA is at 3.77, his highest mark since 2006. His strikeout rate is at the lowest point in his entire career at 5.1 per nine innings. He's also inducing less groundballs than normal, which is his trademark and the biggest reason for his success. Clearly Hudson isn't the same pitcher that he once was, while Cliff Lee is. The markets don't seem to be as convinced as I have this game at close to -180. The Phillies need to win to stay alive in this race and I think they'll get it done behind their hottest pitcher today. |
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