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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-19-16 | Astros v. Orioles +102 | 15-8 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 39 m | Show | |
6-unit Play Take #916 Baltimore Orioles (-110) over Houston Astros (7:05pm EST) After making a strong surge in the middle of the season to get within two games of the Rangers, the Astros have fallen on hard times again and are back to barely above the .500 mark.  The Stros have lost five in a row and are now 10.5 games out of first place and the body language from the club just isn’t very good right now. There’s a ton of talent on their roster, but something has clearly been missing from this squad in 2016. Collin McHugh gets the ball tonight in Camden Yards against the Orioles. He’ll have his hands full against a tough O’s lineup, especially considering all of their left-handed power. In addition, left-handed hitters have an advantage in Camden due to its dimensions. Baltimore left-hander Wade Miley will make his 23rd start of the season today. He’s really struggled for the majority of the campaign, but his peripheral numbers point to an improvement in his ERA going forward. The O’s have been downright dominant at home this season, sporting an AL best 40-19 home record. This line is at least 15-20 cents too low, so we’re on Baltimore as our Game of the Week. |
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08-18-16 | Mets v. Giants -154 | 7-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #962 San Francisco Giants over New York Mets (10:15pm EST) The New York Mets and San Francisco Giants are both really struggling right now. The Mets are just 13-21 over their last 34 games, while the Giants are currently on a 9-21 run since the All-Star break. However, I’m only confident in one of these two teams turning it around and that’s the Giants. San Francisco is a veteran-laden team that has been through a lot of these ups and downs together before. They are healthier now than they have been all season and things will turn at some point. For the Mets, however, it’s not that easy. They’ve been repeatedly battered by injuries and are missing five regulars from the lineup right now, including star Yoenis Cespedes. They’ve dropped all the way to 60-60 and the team morale is definitely at its lowest point in a couple of years. The Mets haven’t gotten off to very good starts to a series of late, dropping Game 1 in their last seven series. Jacob deGrom and Madison Bumgarner go at it in this matchup, and that’s a slight edge to the Giants. The Giants are 8-3 in Bumgarner’s last 11 home starts. Take San Francisco here. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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08-17-16 | Mariners v. Angels -141 | 4-3 | Loss | -141 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #924 Los Angeles Angels over Seattle Mariners (10:05pm EST) The Los Angeles broke their 11-game losing streak yesterday and that’s a huge monkey off their back. Teams that break losing streaks usually respond well immediately after a win as the pressure is gone and the team can focus better. Tonight they face the Mariners again, and the Halos have a huge edge on the mound. The Mariners send rookie Cody Martin to the hill for his first start of the season. He’s worked a little bit in the bullpen (5 appearances) and doesn’t flash particularly good stuff. He only struck out five batters in 10 innings of work and hasn’t really ever posted great minor league numbers at any level.  The Angels send left-hander Tyler Skaggs to the bump today. Skaggs has been solid overall in his four starts this season after returning from an injury. Last time out, however, Skaggs was rocked to the tune of seven runs against the Indians. Most importantly, Skagg’s velocity is up in the mid-90’s (highest of his career) and that makes it really tough on opposing left-handers.  The Angels aren’t as bad as their 50-69 record makes them appear. They’ve only been outscored by a total of 35 runs this season. That’s the same run differential as the Yankees, who are three games above the .500 mark right now. Value on the Halos in this one. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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08-16-16 | Cardinals v. Astros -157 | 8-5 | Loss | -157 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #982 Houston Astros over St. Louis Cardinals (8:10pm EST) The St. Louis Cardinals are coming off of tough four-game series against the rival Cubs, and now they head to Houston to start a series against the Astros. St. Louis hasn’t played consistent baseball all season, and part of the problem is they haven’t been playing with a full deck at any point during the 2016 campaign. The injuries just keep piling up, with Matt Holliday the latest casualty after being hit on the hand by a pitch in Chicago. The Cardinals have been one of the deeper teams in baseball over the last decade or so, but that depth has been tested a little too much lately. Most would agree that the Cards have underachieved this season, but the same can be said of the Astros. They’re just four games above the .500 mark and out of the playoff picture at the moment. But from a sheer talent perspective, Houston is one of the better teams in the league. They got off to a horrid 17-28 start to the season, but since then have been playing like a 90+ win team. A pair of left-handers will go at it in Houston as Dallas Keuchel goes against Jaime Garcia. Slight edge goes to the reigning Cy Young award winner Keuchel today. Throw in Houston’s strong 34-26 home record and I think we get a little value with the Astros in this one. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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08-16-16 | Twins v. Braves +120 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #978 Atlanta Braves over Minnesota Twins (7:10pm EST) Two of the worst teams in baseball square off in Atlanta tonight as the Braves host the Twins. It hasn’t been a good season for either club, but these teams clearly haven’t given up. The Braves are 11-8 over their last 19 contests and are playing their best baseball of the season. Atlanta has a lot of quality young talent and they might be a little fresher than some of the more veteran teams at this point in the season. The Twins haven’t been playing that poorly since the All-Star break either, registering a .500 record since then. They too have some good young talent and it’s starting to come along nicely. Ervin Santana gets the ball for Minnesota today as he looks to continue his solid 2016 campaign. Santana comes in with a 3.62 ERA and 1.23 WHIP and has been locked in over the last month or so. The Braves trot out rookie Joel De La Cruz who has put up decent numbers between the starting rotation and bullpen. I don’t see much of an edge on either side in this game, so we’re going with the home underdog Braves today. |
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08-13-16 | Reds +111 v. Brewers | 11-5 | Win | 111 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #911 Cincinnati Reds (+120) over Milwaukee Brewers (7:10pm EST) The Brewers are currently four games ahead of the Reds in the standings, but I’m not sure they’re the better team right now. Milwaukee had a pretty strong first half of the season, but after trading away Jonathan Lucroy and Jeremy Jeffress at the trade deadline, things have fallen apart. The Brew Crew is 4-7 since August 1st and those games were against the Padres, Diamondbacks, Braves and Reds – four of the worst teams in the league. Clearly the team has been affected after losing one of their leaders. The Reds, meanwhile, have been playing some pretty good baseball since the All-Star break. They are 15-10 since the break and have a lot of young guys trying to make impressions for the future. The pitching matchup today, Dan Straily versus Zach Davies, is about as even as it gets. So I think this line is just too high given how these teams have been playing. Take the Reds. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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08-12-16 | Astros v. Blue Jays -124 | 5-3 | Loss | -124 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #966 Toronto Blue Jays over Houston Astros (7:05pm EST) Francisco Liriano makes his home debut for the Blue Jays tonight against the Astros. Liriano has had a terrible 2016 campaign overall, but a fresh start might be just what he needs to get back on track. He looked much better in Kansas City last time out and Toronto has done a good job of working with their starting pitchers over the last couple of seasons. The Jays have catapulted to the top of the AL East with a nice 11-6 run over the last few weeks. The Astros, meanwhile, have been fading sharply after gaining significant ground on the Rangers in the AL West. Houston is just 6-11 over their last 17 games. This first game of this trip is going to be particularly tough given that they played a doubleheader yesterday in Minnesota and now must travel over the border for tonight’s game. Youngster Joe Musgrove gets the ball for the Astros in the second start of his career. He was impressive last time out against the Rangers, but this will be his first taste of pitching on the road in the big leagues. The Blue Jays lineup has been clicking on all cylinders, so Musgrove will be challenged. Toronto is a strong 34-25 at home this season, and the Astros have struggled on the road. This line is just too low, so we’re all over the Jays here. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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08-11-16 | Cardinals v. Cubs -150 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #908 Chicago Cubs over St. Louis Cardinals (8:15pm EST) The Chicago Cubs are red hot and I don’t think they’re getting priced as high as they should be. The Cubbies have won nine straight and 12 of 13 and they look like the team people were raving about in April and May. They’re now on pace for 103 wins and the Cubs could put the nails in the coffin for St. Louis in this four-game series in Wrigley. The Cards haven’t had a good season and they’ve really struggled against the upper echelon teams. Carlos Martinez and Jon Lester will square off in today’s matchup. Martinez has been knocked around in his last two starts, allowing seven runs last time out versus the anemic Braves and four runs in Miami the start before. Control has been a big issue for Martinez all season and he’s walked quite a few batters. The Cubs have the most patient hitters in baseball, so they could make it hard on Martinez today. In addition, the wind is slated to be blowing out of Wrigley today – another advantage for the powerful Cubs lineup. Lester has been pretty consistent all season long with an ERA below 3.00 for the entire campaign. He doesn’t need to be dominant today to get the win. Take the Cubs against their arch rivals. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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08-10-16 | Orioles v. A's +115 | 0-1 | Win | 115 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #972 Oakland A’s over Baltimore Orioles (10:05pm EST) We see some value on the home underdog today as the A’s host the Orioles. Oakland has been playing much better baseball of late and is .500 since the All-Star break. They’re giving a lot of young guys a chance and it seems to have sparked the club. Baltimore has been near the top of the AL East for most of the season and been underrated by many. However, most of their damage has been done at home this season. The O’s are just 24-32 on the road and only 4-10 in their last 14. Yovani Gallardo gets the ball for Baltimore today and he’s been a disaster in his 14 starts in 2016. Gallardo owns a 5.47 ERA and 1.65 WHIP and is walking nearly five batters per nine innings. On the road, he’s been even worse, posting a 6.75 ERA and allowing batters to hit .294 against him. Ross Detwiler will make his first start of the season today for Oakland. He wasn’t very effective as a reliever, but I think Detwiler is a guy that is much better suited for the rotation. It sometimes takes him a bit to settle in, and he features a nice arsenal of pitchers that can keep hitters off balance the second and third time through the order. I think the A’s get the job done in this one. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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08-10-16 | White Sox v. Royals -104 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #970 Kansas City Royals over Chicago White Sox (8:15pm EST) The 2016 season is basically over for the Chicago White Sox and Kansas City Royals. After decent starts to the campaign, both clubs have fallen apart over the last couple of months. The question is how they will finish, and I have more confidence in the Royals than the Sox. Kansas City is just one year removed from their second straight World Series appearance. This is the same cast and the only reason they’ve struggled is because of the injury issues. They’re still missing some key guys, but this team has too much character to just fold up shop and go home. The White Sox, on the other hand, have had a drama-filled season that started with the abrupt retirement of Adam LaRoche and the more recently endured the Chris Sale uniform fiasco. The players have grown weary of the happenings around the team, and I expect a lackluster effort in the season’s final two months. The starting pitcher matchup favors Chicago today, but that’s almost always the case for teams the Royals play against. Kansas City has still been very good at home this season, posting a 34-21 record in Kaufman Stadium. Take the Royals today at the low price. |
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08-09-16 | Padres v. Pirates -139 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #902 Pittsburgh Pirates over San Diego Padres (7:05pm EST) It’s been a mediocre season in Pittsburgh, but this isn’t the kind of team that is going to just give up down the stretch. We’re seeing discounted lines for the Pirates lately and today is certainly no exception. They’re at home versus an awful Padres team and are laying only -135. It’s not like San Diego has any kind of advantage on the mound, as Luis Perdomo and Chad Kuhl have been equally unimpressive in their first seasons. We’re keeping this one simple. The Pirates have just been downgraded too far, and this line is too good to pass up. Take the Pirates. |
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08-09-16 | Rays v. Blue Jays -182 | 9-2 | Loss | -182 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #914 Toronto Blue Jays over Tampa Bay Rays (7:05pm EST) The Toronto Blue Jays have been coming on strong over the last couple of months after a slow start to the 2016 campaign. It took some time for their bats to heat up, but now they’re clicking on all cylinders. Part of the issue earlier in the season was staying healthy, and now they’ve finally got their regular lineup intact. Tonight they’ll face southpaw Drew Smyly of the Rays. The Blue Jays have hit lefties really well the last couple of seasons and especially at home. This hasn’t been a very good season for Smyly, as he comes in with a 3-11 record and a hefty 5.14 ERA in 21 starts. It’s tough to pinpoint exactly how he’s pitching this poorly after a couple of really good seasons, but my guess is that he’s pitching through some sort of injury that hasn’t been disclosed. Marco Estrada gets the ball for the Jays and he’s been lights out in 2016. The All-Star hurler owns a 2.92 ERA and has been exceptional pitching at home despite the fact it’s built for hitters. In 63.2 innings at home, Estrada has a 2.69 ERA and hitters are batting just .172 against him. He’ll face a Ray’s lineup that is pretty banged up and has been struggling to consistently plate runs all year. Take Toronto. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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08-07-16 | Twins v. Rays -126 | 6-3 | Loss | -126 | 2 h 37 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #916 Tampa Bay Rays (-135) over Minnesota Twins (1:10pm EST) The Tampa Bay Rays traded Matt Moore away at the deadline because they were dealing from an area of strength. Not many teams have the depth at starting pitcher like the Rays do. Once Moore was dealt, Tampa slid Matt Andriese back into the rotation after spending some time in the bullpen. Andriese has been amazing this season, posting a 2.72 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 76 innings of work. He flies a bit under the radar, so I think we get decent value backing him today. The Twins counter with right-hander Kyle Gibson, who just hasn’t been able to figure it out in 2016 after a solid season last year. He comes in at 3-6 with a 4.94 ERA in 14 starts and last time out was one of his worst outings of the season. He gave up six runs in 4.2 innings of work versus the Indians. Both of these teams are playing for the future, but Tampa has the better overall roster and could be a bit of a surprise down the stretch. They really have been unfortunate this season with injuries and in close games. Take Tampa to win this one at home. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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08-06-16 | Indians v. Yankees +140 | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 24 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #964 New York Yankees over Cleveland Indians (1:05pm EST) Yes the New York Yankees traded away three important pieces at the trade deadline. Yes they are playing more for future than the present. And yes they probably aren’t as motived as they’ve been in recent years. But this is still a veteran-laden squad that isn’t just going to roll over in these last two months. The Yanks beat up the Tribe 13-7 yesterday and they’ll look to turn the trick again this afternoon. CC Sabathia gets the ball for New York in this one. His numbers are mediocre, but Sabathia is having his best season in four years. The Indians don’t hit left-handers as well and southpaws have an advantage in Yankee Stadium due to the dimensions. Corey Kluber goes for the Tribe. He’s put up really good numbers, but I think this price is just a bit too high. The Yanks have been really good at home this season (31-23) and I like the matchups today. Play the Yankees. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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08-05-16 | Phillies v. Padres -109 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #912 San Diego Padres over Philadelphia Phillies (10:40pm EST) Both the Philadelphia Phillies and the San Diego Padres are playing for the future. But it certainly doesn’t appear that the Padres are dogging it the rest of the way in 2016. San Diego is a respectable 9-10 since the All-Star break and just won a series versus the Brewers where they outscored them by a combined 21-9 score. Getting rid of Matt Kemp last week might have been a blessing in disguise for the Pads. Kemp was a terrible defender in the field and didn’t have the kind of clubhouse attitude that you want on a young team. The Phillies have had a solid season overall, but they are in a tough spot tonight. This will be their 10th road game in their last 13 games. They just played back-to-back extra innings games in Philadelphia versus the Giants, and now travel cross country to begin this series. No question, their bullpen is going to be a bit fatigued today as well as some of the position players. Meanwhile, the Padres had a day off yesterday and that’s a pretty big advantage this time of year during the dog days of summer. The Phils have a small advantage as far as the starting pitchers go, but I don’t think that’s enough to justify where this line is at. San Diego should be a decided favorite, so we’ll gladly take the Pads as our Game of the Week. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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08-04-16 | Giants -125 v. Phillies | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 55 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #953 San Francisco Giants over Philadelphia Phillies (1:05pm EST) The San Francisco Giants haven’t played well in the second half of the season, which was one of the reasons they tried to make some moves at the trade deadline. The Giants didn’t do a ton, but they did bring in starting pitcher Matt Moore to help solidify the rotation. Moore has had a solid, but unspectacular, season at 7-7 with a 4.08 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 21 starts. But remember, that came against the mashing lineups of the AL East. Now he moves to the NL West, where the ballparks are bigger and the lineups are much easier to navigate. Pitchers who go from the AL to the NL often times have a lot more success, and I think Moore stays true to reform in that regard. The Phillies lineup shouldn’t give him any problem today, as they’ve struggled to plate runs all year. Only the Braves have scored less runs than Philadelphia has this season, so Moore should be able to settle into his new team nicely. The Phils counter with Vincent Velasquez today, who hasn’t been as good recently as he was earlier in the season. His strikeout rate has dropped off a bit and he’s been walking a lot of batters. Over his last three starts, Velasquez has walked a total of 10 batters. He may be hitting that rookie wall, so the Giants have a good chance to get to him today. Take San Francisco here. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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08-02-16 | Pirates v. Braves +162 | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #954 Atlanta Braves over Pittsburgh Pirates (7:10pm EST) Lots of shake up on the Pirates roster over the last several days and it’s a bit hard to figure out exactly what direction the team is headed now. Gone are Francisco Liriano and Jon Niese, and most importantly closer Mark Melancon. They didn’t get a lot in the way of major league ready players in those deals, so it appears that they’re playing for the future. That’s a little bit perplexing considering they aren’t far behind in the wild card race, so the team might be feeling a bit deflated right now. They start a series in Atlanta tonight as ace Gerrit Cole makes his 16th start of the season. The big right-hander is 6-6 with a 2.78 ERA in 2016, but he has a mediocre 1.25 WHIP and 7.5 strikeout rate per nine innings. Cole certainly has amazing stuff, but I don’t think he’s fully mastered just how to utilize it yet. The Braves are certainly playing for the future, but they did make an interesting move that brought in Matt Kemp a few days ago. He makes the Braves offense immediately better and might force teams to pitch to Freddie Freeman a little bit more often now. This line is just a little bit too high given the recent developments, so we’re on Atlanta. |
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08-02-16 | Rangers v. Orioles +109 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 109 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #966 Baltimore Orioles over Texas Rangers (7:05pm EST) The Texas Rangers made some huge moves at the trade deadline, bringing in Carlos Beltran, Jonathan Lucroy and Jeremy Jeffress. That’s a lot of talent and there’s no question that the Rangers are a better team with the additions. However, I think it could inflate their lines a little bit too much in the short-term. Today they’re favored in Baltimore against an Orioles team that has been amazing at home. In 2016, the O’s are 37-16 in Camden Yards – best in the big leagues. Yes they’re at a disadvantage as far as starting pitchers go in this game, but that’s almost always the case for Baltimore. Yu Darvish and Dylan Bundy go for their respective squads and both have been good in limited action. But if this game is tight late, the O’s have a big advantage in their bullpen. The middle relief is very good and when it comes to closers there might not be a better one in baseball. Zach Britton has a 0.00 ERA since the end of April and is at a miniscule 0.60 on the season. He’s producing an amazing 80% groundball rate to go along with 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings. The O’s also have an edge when it comes to the lineup, so it’s a bit surprising they are underdogs today. Take Baltimore. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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08-01-16 | Royals v. Rays -125 | 3-0 | Loss | -125 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #908 Tampa Bay Rays over Kansas City Royals (7:10pm EST) There’s a chance that Chris Archer could be dealt today, but for right now he’s still in a Tampa Bay Rays uniform. He hasn’t had a very good season, but his last two starts have been very encouraging on the road against the Dodgers and Rockies. He struck out 19 batters in those two outings versus two walks, while posting a 2.08 ERA. Today he’ll face the worst offense in the American League in the Kansas City Royals. It’s been an injury-plagued campaign for the Royals, who find themselves as potential sellers on the last day of the trading deadline. Kansas City is without two of their top bullpen arms right now – Wade Davis and Luke Hochevar. Mike Moustakas is also on the disabled list and this team just doesn’t feel like the same one that went to the World Series just a year ago. Danny Duffy takes the mound for the Royals today. He’s put together a really good season overall with a 3.22 ERA in his time in the rotation and the bullpen. The Rays, however, hit much better against southpaws and should have a pretty strong lineup advantage today. I think the Rays are actually the better team right now given the injury situation and the mindset of these two ballclubs. Play Tampa today. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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07-31-16 | Red Sox v. Angels -114 | 5-3 | Loss | -114 | 3 h 27 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #978 Los Angeles Angels over Boston Red Sox (3:35pm EST) Great opportunity this afternoon to back an under the radar pitcher in Tyler Skaggs. The 25-year old left-hander just made his season debut on Tuesday in Kansas City and he looked sharp. Skaggs went seven innings without allowing a run, on three hits and just one walk. That followed up two unbelievable efforts in Triple-A in which Skaggs struck out 26 batters over his last two starts in just 12.2 innings of work. Obviously his stuff is electric right now and his velocity is as good as ever according to the radar gun in his last start. He’ll have a tough Red Sox lineup to deal with in this one, but they haven’t been clicking as well lately. Boston counters with knuckleballer Steven Wright, who seems to finally be coming back down to earth after an impressive first half of the season. Wright owns an ugly 6.29 ERA over his last six starts and has gotten past the sixth inning in just one of those outings. Boston is just 2-7 over their last nine games and has been decimated with injuries in their bullpen. Closer Craig Kimbrel is out in addition to Koji Uehara, and Junichi Tazawa has been banged up recently as well. I like the Angels to take this one at home today. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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07-30-16 | Red Sox -125 v. Angels | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #927 Boston Red Sox over Los Angeles Angels (9:05 PM, Saturday, July 30) The Boston Red Sox will look for back to back wins over the Los Angeles Angels when the two teams meet at Angel Stadium in Anaheim, CA on Saturday night. Drew Pomeranz (8-8, 2.84 ERA, 1.12 WHIP) will get the start for the Red Sox and he will be opposed by Hector Santiago (9-4, 4.28 ERA, 1.31 WHIP), who is scheduled to get the call on the hill for the Angels. Boston has posted a 7-3 record in their last ten games following a win and they have gone an excellent 15-7 in their last 22 games where they faced a team from the AL West Division. The Angels, on the other hand, have struggled a bit in here tonight as they have gone just 3-7 in their last ten Game #3's of a series and they have lost 18 of their last 25 games versus a team from the AL East. They are also just 2-6 in their last eight home games where they faced a left handed starter and they are an awful 3-9 in their last twelve games after scoring two runs or less in their previous contest. Throw in the fact that the Sox are a perfect 4-0 in their last four games where they faced a left handed starter and that Pomeranz has held Mike Trout and Albert Pujols to a .100 average (2/20) combined and we'll lay the small price with them here to get the road win in Anaheim on Saturday night. |
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07-29-16 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -128 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #966 Toronto Blue Jays (-130) over Baltimore Orioles (7:05pm EST) Huge series gets underway in Toronto as the Jays host the Orioles in the first of three games tonight. These two teams are separated by just 1.5 games at the top of the AL East standings, but I think the Jays are the more complete team at the moment. The lineup is finally hitting to its potential for Toronto and their starting pitching has really been a huge surprise this season. Marco Estrada is one of the guys who have been as dependable as they come with a 2.94 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in his 17 starts. His peripherals don’t fully support his ERA, but he’s always been one of those guys who just knows how to pitch and can outperform his numbers. The Orioles have had a great season, but most of their damage has been done at home in Camden Yards. The O’s are an impressive 37-16 at home this season – the best mark in all of baseball. With all of that left-handed power in their lineup, they really thrive in Camden. But on the road it’s a different story, posting a subpar 21-27 mark. Kevin Gausman goes for Baltimore today. Based on his high ceiling, Gausman has been priced like an ace for most of the season despite a 2-7 record and a mediocre 3.77 ERA. That’s the case today as the Jays are just small favorites at home despite the home/away records of these clubs. Take Toronto here. |
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07-27-16 | Angels +102 v. Royals | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #965 LA Angels over Kansas City Royals (8:15pm EST) There’s no pitcher in baseball that has made the strides that Matt Shoemaker has during the 2016 season. After getting off to a terrible start to the campaign that saw his ERA over 9.00 in the beginning of May, Shoemaker has posted a 2.84 ERA since. His split-finger pitch is one of the toughest pitches in all of baseball to square up and it’s been the key to his exceptional strikeout rate. Today he’ll face a struggling Royals team that looks to be throwing in the towel on the season. Kansas City is hoping to trade away assets as the team lacks the spark they’ve had in each of the last two seasons. Left-hander Danny Duffy gets the ball for the Royals today and he’s had a nice season bouncing back and forth between the rotation and bullpen. However, the Halos have been swinging the bats well and they have fared particularly well against southpaws this season. Albert Pujols is looking like his old self of late and that’s given the Angels some life. There’s no way Kansas City should be the favorites in this one, despite being at home with a better record. Shoemaker is pitching at an elite level and he should lead the Angels to victory in this one. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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07-26-16 | Mariners v. Pirates -120 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #918 Pittsburgh Pirates over Seattle Mariners (7:05pm EST) The Pittsburgh Pirates have had a challenging season, but they are a scrappy bunch and have managed to get to four games above the .500 mark. They’re squarely in contention and things are looking brighter. One of the more positive signs of late is Francisco Liriano’s last outing versus the Brewers. He struck out 13 batters in 6.2 innings of work – easily his most impressive performance of the 2016 campaign. Overall it hasn’t been a good season for the veteran left-hander, but he’s been a streaky pitcher throughout his career and this could be the beginning of a nice run. He’ll face a Mariners team that doesn’t match up well against southpaws, so Liriano should have the edge. The M’s have been disappointing after a great start to the season. The pitching staff has been the biggest issue and today’s starter Felix Hernandez certainly hasn’t been his usual self. Hernandez has managed a decent 3.23 ERA, but all of his peripherals have slipped including a subpar 7.1 strikeout rate per nine innings. He still knows how to pitch, but King Felix is more hittable than ever. The Pirates also have one of the better home field advantages in baseball and Seattle isn’t very familiar with PNC Park. That’s a subtle edge that is the icing on the cake in this game. All signs point to the Pirates today. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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07-25-16 | Phillies +142 v. Marlins | 4-0 | Win | 142 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #951 Philadelphia Phillies over Miami Marlins (7:10pm EST) Good spot here to back an underdog Phillies team in Miami. The Marlins just dropped an important series to the Mets and may be a bit unfocused as they take on an inferior opponent. Jarred Cosart returns to the rotation for the Fish after missing several months with an oblique injury. Cosart was atrocious in his three major league starts back in April and his rehab work in Triple-A hasn’t been that good either. In 10 starts in New Orleans, Cosart had a terrible 5.3 K rate and a 4.4 walk rate per nine innings. His ERA was 4.09 but he definitely deserved worse. It’s a little perplexing that the Marlins are giving Cosart a chance right now, with the club in the thick of a pennant race. The Phils are obviously playing for the future, but they’re rebuilding efforts are well ahead of schedule with several players turning in solid seasons. One of those guys is today’s starter Jeremy Hellickson, who comes in at 7-7 with a 3.84 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 20 starts. Teams are scouting Hellickson right now for a potential trade, and that tells you a lot about how much improvement he’s made in 2016. This line is just too high given the matchup. Take Philadelphia. |
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07-23-16 | Rangers v. Royals +106 | 7-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #976 Kansas City Royals (+105) over Texas Rangers (7:15pm EST) Everyone is counting out the Kansas City Royals once again, but this team has overcome far greater odds. The Royals are just a game over the .500 mark, but are still within striking distance of a wild card if they can finish strong. While the Royals have struggled mightily on the road this season, they have been elite at home with a 31-15 record. Kaufman Stadium is a spacious park and Kansas City’s defense is a perfect fit for their dimensions. That should help Yordano Ventura today, who hasn’t been his usual self in 2016. He comes in with a 4.97 ERA in 18 starts, but there is a bright spot. In his last two starts, Ventura has seemingly found his groove. He went seven innings in each start and posted an ERA of 3.21 to go along with an 11-2 K-BB rate. He’ll face a Rangers team that has been a bit fortunate to be where they are, and that is now reeling. Texas is in first place in the AL West despite have a dead even run differential on the season, 2.5 games head of the Astros who are at +44 runs overall. The Rangers are just 4-14 in their last 18 games, as they’re pitching staff has really been exposed. Cole Hamels has been the steadiest arm in their rotation, but even he hasn’t been as good as his ERA indicates. It’s hard to believe the Royals are underdogs in this game, so we’re going in that direction here. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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07-22-16 | Cubs -152 v. Brewers | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. Take #909 Chicago Cubs over Milwaukee Brewers (8:10 PM, Friday, July 22) The Chicago Cubs will look for their third win in their last four games when they hit the road to take on the Brewers at Miller Park in Milwaukee, WI on Friday night. Jason Hammel (8-5, 3.34 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) will get the start for the Cubs and he will be opposed by Jimmy Nelson (6-7, 3.39 ERA, 1.37 WHIP), who is scheduled to get the start for the Brewers. Chicago has posted a 9-3 record in their last twelve games following a day off and they have gone an excellent 50-21 in their last 71 games where they faced a team with a losing record dating back to the 2015 season. The Brewers, on the other hand, have struggled a bit in the spot they are in here tonight as they have gone just 2-5 in their last seven home games and they have lost six of Nelson's last eight starts. Throw in the fact that the Cubs have gone 8-2 in their last ten head to head meetings with the Brewers and we'll lay the price with them here to get the road win in Milwaukee on Friday night. |
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07-20-16 | Rays -101 v. Rockies | 11-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 12 m | Show | |
5-unit Play Take #925 Tampa Bay Rays over Colorado Rockies (3:10pm EST) It hasn’t been a good season for Chris Archer and the Tampa Bay Rays. The team sits in last place in the AL East and Archer comes in at 4-13 with a bulky 4.68 ERA. But this is currently one of the most undervalued teams in baseball, and we should be able to cash in with Tampa numerous times in the second half. First off, Tampa has been extremely unlucky so far in 2016. They’re just 7-13 in one run games and they’ve been unlucky in their runs sequencing which has cost them big time as well. The Rays have also endured a ton of injuries to key players this season. However, the Rays are much healthier now and I wouldn’t be surprised if they play .500+ baseball the rest of the way. Archer certainly has struggled, but he’s been unlucky as well. His HR/FB rate is 60% above his career norm and he’s yielded a BABIP that’s 25 points above where he usually is. Those numbers tend to regress as the season progresses, so we should see a significant decline in his ERA in the second half. Today he’ll take on the Rockies in Colorado. After a nice start to the 2016 campaign, the Rockies have fallen off over the last few weeks. They are just 6-11 in their last 17 contests and their last three series were against the Phillies, Braves and Rays – not exactly top flight competition. Jorge De La Rosa toes the rubber for Colorado and he’s yet to settle in with a 5.50 ERA that he’s completely deserved. The Rays are the better team and have the better pitcher on the mound today. Take Tampa at a great price. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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07-19-16 | Brewers v. Pirates -140 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #954 Pittsburgh Pirates over Milwaukee Brewers (7:05pm EST) A quick look at the standings in the NL Central shows the Pirates at just 47-45 on the season with a -2 run differential overall. That's not exactly what Pirates fans expected coming off of three straight playoff appearances. But I think there's still hope for Pittsburgh, as they've addressed some of the issues they had earlier in the season. The bullpen has been shaken up some as well as the starting rotation in an effort to get in some younger talent. One of the guys they promoted is today's starter Jameson Taillon. The young right-hander has been pretty impressive in his five starts, posting a 3.86 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. He has a lively fastball and a plus curveball to go along with it that keeps hitters off balance. Today he gets the struggling Milwaukee Brewers. The Brew Crew is getting ready to unload some assets before the trade deadline and the team knows it. They are just 9-18 over their last 27 games and have been particularly bad away from home. The Brewers are just 16-29 on the road this season, which is the third worst record in baseball. Pittsburgh has one of the best home field advantages in the game and I think they're underpriced today. Play the Pirates. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-18-16 | Rangers +109 v. Angels | 5-9 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #917 Texas Rangers over Los Angeles Angels (10:05pm EST) The Texas Rangers have held the best record in the American League for a good part of the season, yet they still aren’t getting much respect. Money has poured in against Texas in many of their games and everyone expects this team to eventually implode. I don’t see it. Yes they’re starting pitching is a mess and they have some holes on the roster, but so does everyone else in the league. There are a lot of bright spots on this squad and they’re better than the betting public thinks. Today they’re an underdog to the last-place Angels. The season has long been over for the Halos so there’s a good chance they trade away an asset or two at the trade deadline. A.J. Griffin and Nick Tropeano will do the honors today on the mound. Both pitchers have had solid seasons with weak peripherals that point to regression. I actually prefer Griffin here as he’s really only had one bad outing all season and it was his last time out before the All-Star break. He’s one of those guys who just knows how to pitch and gets you out with less-than-stellar stuff repeatedly. The Angels offense is nothing special and I prefer the Rangers bullpen if this game is tight late. All signs point to the Rangers today as underdogs. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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07-17-16 | Red Sox v. Yankees +112 | 1-3 | Win | 112 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #978 New York Yankees over Boston Red Sox (8:05pm EST) The Sunday Night ESPN Game of the Week features one of baseball’s storied rivals as the Yankees host the Red Sox. Fans in New York want the Yankees to begin trading away veteran assets for younger pieces that will contribute in the near future, and management seems to be split over whether that’s the best course of action. I have a feeling that the Yankees veterans are going to make the decision tough for management as they’ve been playing much better baseball the last two months. Masahiro Tanaka and David Price toe the rubber for their respective squads and surprisingly Tanaka has the edge right now. It hasn’t been a good first season in Beantown for Price and it could be all of those innings finally catching up with him. The Yanks just need to keep this game close until the late innings, where they gain a distinct advantage with Dellin Betances, Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman lurking. These teams are closer than most people think, and we’ll go with the Yankees at home at a good price. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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07-16-16 | White Sox v. Angels -155 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #928 Los Angeles Angels over Chicago White Sox (9:05pm EST) James Shields has had a tough 2016 season, but some are pointing to his last three starts as reason for hope. I’m not buying it. Yes Shields has put up a nice 2.21 ERA over his last three outings, but his peripheral numbers tell the real story. He still has major control issues and continues to leave the ball up in the zone. The only thing that has been better in his last few starts is his ability to strand runners. He’s still getting himself into jams, but has been fortunate to escape on several occasions. Since joining the White Sox, Shields has a 7.68 ERA and he’s deserved every bit of it. Today he takes on a mediocre Angel’s lineup, but I’m not sure it matters who he is going up against. Triple-A teams could probably knock Shields out early the way he’s pitching over the last two months. On the other side if Matt Shoemaker, who has turned himself into a really nice starting pitcher this season. Not many hurlers have improved as much as Shoemaker has during the 2016 season. His seasonal numbers don’t show it, but you can see a huge difference in his stuff and the K-BB ratio is vastly improving. Don’t be surprised if Shoemaker is the ace of the staff heading into next season. The White Sox are a team on the decline and I think Shoemaker makes easy work of them today. Take the Halos here. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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07-15-16 | Red Sox v. Yankees -107 | 5-3 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 0 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #966 New York Yankees over Boston Red Sox (7:05pm EST) The big talk in New York hasn’t been about the Yankees 2016 chances, but instead is about who they can trade away to make this a better team in the near future. But at 44-44, I don’t think the Yanks are giving up just yet in 2016. There are a lot of veterans on this team and I think they could force the organization to make some tough choices at the end of July. Heck, the Yanks are only 5.5 games behind the Red Sox right now and that gap could be even narrower by the weekend. New York is also eight games over the .500 mark since May 6, and remember that they didn’t have Aroldis Chapman active yet then. The Yankees know that they just have to keep the games close until the seventh inning, when the big three bullpen arms can win or save the game for them. Today’s matchup features two struggling hurlers – Eduardo Rodriguez and Michael Pineda. Both starters had forgettable first halves and I expect much better results from both of them. However, I’m much more confident in Pineda as he owned a dominant 10.7 strikeout rate per nine innings and was quite unlucky in regards to batted balls. Rodriguez, on the other hand, posted an 8.59 ERA in six starts and probably deserved every bit of it given his weak peripherals. The Yankees have the edge on the mound all the way into the bullpen, and that’s where we are going today. Play New York. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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07-10-16 | Nationals +120 v. Mets | 3-2 | Win | 120 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #901 Washington Nationals over New York Mets (1:10pm EST) The top two contenders in the NL East square off in the final game before the All-Star break. This is a huge matchup that represents a two-game swing in the standings. It certainly feels like the Nats are slowly pulling away for good, as the Mets just can’t stay healthy. Lucas Duda, David Wright and Yoenis Cespedes (could pinch it) are all injured on the offensive side of things. As for the pitching staff, Matt Harvey (out for the season) and Noah Syndergaard are also hurt. Even today’s starter Steven Matz is dealing with bone chips in his throwing shoulder, so the Mets have to be careful with him the rest of the season. Meanwhile, the Nats are healthy minus Ryan Zimmerman, who has been struggling anyways. Although they are still fairly close in the standings, the run differentials tell a better story for these two squads. The Nats come in at +104 runs on the season, while the Mets are sitting at just +22 at the moment. And with the Mets’ current injuries, that gap figures to widen even more in the second half. Washington is just a better team all around period. Gio Gonzalez gets the ball today for the Nats and he matches up well against the Mets lineup who struggles versus southpaws. In fact, the Mets are 13th in the NL in runs scored versus left-handers in 2016. Matz might not be 100% today, so they may have to rely on a bullpen that hasn’t been at its best of late. All signs point to the Nationals in this one. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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07-09-16 | Angels v. Orioles -121 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 19 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #968 Baltimore Orioles over Los Angeles Angels (7:05pm EST) AMERICAN LEAGUE GAME OF THE YEAR. The Baltimore Orioles have been atop the American League East for most of the season, but they still aren't getting much respect in the betting markets. Manager Buck Showalter has consistently helped the O's exceed expectations over the last few seasons and they've been a great team to back because of it. Once again they're undervalued as a smallish favorite over a last place Angel's team. Most bettors are afraid of backing the Orioles starting pitchers, but they don't realize that they don't need great starting pitching to win games. The O's have a tremendous offense, they play above average defense and boast one of the best bullpens in baseball. They just need their starters to keep them in the game, and that's exactly what they've done so far in 2016. At home, Baltimore has been an absolute force to be reckoned with. They enter today's action at 31-14 in Camden Yards and have put up some crooked numbers along the way. The Halos are playing for the future and will be sellers when the deadline comes in a couple of weeks. Los Angeles does have a small edge as far as starting pitchers go in this matchup, but the O's dominate in every other department. Lay the small price with the O's in our Game of the Year. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-08-16 | Diamondbacks v. Giants -148 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #914 San Francisco Giants over Arizona Diamondbacks (10:15pm EST) The San Francisco Giants were picked by many to represent the National League in the World Series this season, and right now they could be the frontrunners. Since May 11th, the Giants are 37-15 while the Cubs continue to struggle. With all of the new additions to their squad, it took some time to jell but now the Giants are certainly hitting on all cylinders. One of those new additions was Jeff Samardzija, who takes the mound today. Samardzija has gotten better as the season has gone on, so we have to give some credit to pitching coach Dave Righetti. Righetti has a great reputation for getting the best out of his pitchers and Samardzija has bounced back nicely after a terrible season with the White Sox. Things aren’t going so well for the Diamondbacks. At 38-49, their season is close to over and it doesn’t look like A.J. Pollock is coming back. That’s a huge disappointment considering Arizona won the offseason with the big additions of Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller. Patrick Corbin goes for them today and he hasn’t been able to get completely on track after a good showing last year. The Giants are good-sized favorites here today, but I think the line should be even higher. Play San Francisco. |
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07-08-16 | Rays v. Red Sox -115 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #920 Boston Red Sox over Tampa Bay Rays (7:10pm EST) The Boston Red Sox haven’t been playing their best baseball of late, going 14-18 over their last 32 contests. That streak has seen some truly abysmal pitching performances, including a 21-2 loss last week to the Angels. But as bad as Boston has played of late, the Tampa Bay Rays have done them one better. Tampa has a horrendous 3-19 record over their last 22 games and most of the losses haven’t even been close. In fact, only one of those 19 losses was by a single run. The rumors are already surfacing about who the Rays will trade away at the deadline, and one of the guys being talked about is today’s starter Chris Archer. Things haven’t gone well for Archer in 2016, as he’s 4-11 with a bulky 4.50 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. Last season he was in contention for the AL Cy Young, but his mechanics haven’t been right all season and he could be fighting through an injury. Sean O’Sullivan gets the ball for Boston and he certainly hasn’t been good either. O’Sullivan owns a 6.61 ERA in four games, but he has been unfortunate with a 61% strand rate and .368 BABIP. He doesn’t need to be perfect in this one to get the win. It’s hard to believe we can get the Red Sox at such a cheap price at home versus a team that is on a current 3-19 run. But that’s exactly what we have today, so go Red Sox. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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07-07-16 | A's v. Astros -123 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -123 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #968 Houston Astros over Oakland A's (8:10pm EST) We've been riding the Houston Astros quite a bit lately and there's no reason to stop now. The Stros are 29-11 over their last 40 contests, including a current 14-3 hot streak the last couple of weeks. Today they start a series against the lowly A's, who come into today's game 16.5 games out of first in the AL West. Oakland players know that their team is going to be a seller come the trade deadline, so it's tough to imagine them being particularly focused right now. The All-Star break is just a few days away and some of these guys are probably looking forward to some time off. Houston, on the other hand, clearly doesn't need a break as they're the hottest team in baseball right now. The A's have the pitching edge in today's game (Rich Hill versus Doug Fister), and that allows us to pick up a reasonable price on a hot team at home. Houston has been one of the better home teams in baseball the last couple of seasons and we'll call their number again today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-06-16 | Mariners v. Astros -135 | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #926 Houston Astros (-135) over Seattle Mariners (8:10pm EST) The red hot Houston Astros look to keep the momentum tonight versus the Seattle Mariners. The Stros are 28-11 over their last 39 contests while getting great efforts offensively and from the pitching staff. It’s to understand why this team struggled so much early in the season, but this finally looks like the team we saw in last year’s playoffs. Mike Fiers gets the ball for Houston on Wednesday and he’s pitching better now than he has all season. In his last four starts, Fiers is 3-0 with a spectacular 1.57 ERA. He’ll certainly regress at some point, but he doesn’t need to be perfect to get the win today. Seattle is sending left-hander Wade LeBlanc to the mound for this third start of the season. He’s looked good in his first two outings with a 1.50 ERA in 12 innings of work. However, with a career 4.40 ERA, the 31-year old isn’t going to keep it up for long. The Astros are a tough team to keep at bay in Minute Maid Park, as they have plenty of power in a stadium where the ball carries. Last season the Astros were 53-28 at home, which was the best mark in the AL. They’re on their way to a similar home record this season. Take the Astros to get the win today. |
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07-05-16 | Padres v. Diamondbacks -138 | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #962 Arizona Diamondbacks over San Diego Padres (9:40pm EST) Two of the dregs of the NL West go at it on Tuesday night in Arizona as the Diamondbacks host the Padres. These two teams have virtually identical records, but I'm fairly certain the D-Backs will be the better squad in the second half of this season. They've caught some unfortunate breaks throughout the first half with poor health and have their fair share of close losses as well (2-5 in extra innings). The Padres will likely be dismantling their squad some time before the trade deadline and that cant' be good for clubhouse chemistry right now. Big edge for Arizona today on the mound with Zachary Godley against Christian Friedrich. Overall these two hurlers are on the same level, but Arizona hits left-handers really well and the Padres aren't as good against righties. If it comes down the bullpens, the Snakes probably have an even bigger edge. San Diego recently traded away closer Fernando Rodney, who was having a really good season. They just don't have too many reliable arms in that pen now, while Arizona can call on several arms to get outs. Value with the Diamondbacks here. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-04-16 | Royals v. Blue Jays -180 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #926 Toronto Blue Jays over Kansas City Royals (7:10pm EST) It's difficult to go against the defending champs because they seem to have a way of surpassing expectations and consistently winning games they shouldn't. But the Kansas City Royals do have a pretty big chink in their armor - they aren't very good on the road. Kansas City is just 16-27 away from home this season versus 27-11 at home. Last season wasn't as extreme, but it's clear that the Royals have some big advantages playing in Kaufman Stadium. It's one of the biggest outfields in baseball and they have excellent outfield defenders who can get go get em out there. They also don't bring much in the way of home run power offensively, so the stadium plays to their strengths in that regard as well. Today they go into the Rogers Center, which is about as diametrically opposite as you can get. Balls fly out of that stadium and whoever hits the most home runs usually walks away victorious. The Blue Jays are starting to swing the bats much better and is one scary team right now for opponents. Toronto will have a big edge on the mound today with Aaron Sanchez going up against Edinson Volquez. Sanchez is 8-1 with a sparkling 3.08 ERA and a strong 8.2 strikeout rate. Volquez, on the other hand, comes in struggling with a 4.80 ERA and 1.43 WHIP on the season. Over his last three outings, Volquez has a hideous 10.29 ERA. The price is a little steeper than we usually like, but all signs point to an easy Toronto win today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-03-16 | White Sox v. Astros -131 | 4-1 | Loss | -131 | 2 h 25 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #970 Houston Astros over Chicago White Sox (2:10pm EST) Two teams going in opposite directions square off on Sunday afternoon as the Astros host the White Sox. Houston is a red hot 13-3 over their last 16 games and 26-10 over their last 36 contests. This is the team that everyone expected to see in 2016 and they're getting tremendous effort on both sides of the ball. Chicago is mired in a slump that has them at 18-30 since mid-May. Today is the rubber game of the three-game set between these two as Collin McHugh and Jose Quintana battle it out on the mound respectively. The Astros prefer left-handed pitchers and they're especially tough to deal with at home in Minute Maid. Last season the Astros were a spectacular 53-28 at home and so far this season they are a strong 23-16. We'll go with the better team playing their best ball of the season. Play the Astros. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-02-16 | Orioles v. Mariners -142 | Top | 6-12 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #924 Seattle Mariners over Baltimore Orioles (10:10pm EST) We rode the Seattle Mariners yesterday to an easy victory and we'll look their direction once again today for many of the same reasons. The Orioles are having a great season, but almost all of their damage has been at home in Camden Yards. They are 18 games over .500 at home versus three games under .500 on the road. Safeco Field isn't built for power hitters, which is what Baltimore brings. The M's have a more balanced lineup that can manufacture runs when needed. The pitching matchup today is decidedly in the M's favor as James Paxton takes the hill against Tyler Wilson. Paxton has shown amazing stuff since being called up a month ago. He's increased his velocity significantly and is striking out 10.6 batters per nine innings. Paxton has been a bit unlucky with only a 65% strand rate and .415 BABIP, but his peripheral statistics are pointing to a future ERA under the 3.00 mark. He won't be flying under the radar for long, so we'll take Seattle here. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-30-16 | Indians v. Blue Jays +105 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #914 Toronto Blue Jays over Cleveland Indians (7:10pm EST) The Blue Jays offense hasn't hit its stride yet in 2016, but a trip to Colorado may have them headed in the right direction. The Jays scored 24 runs in three games in Colorado and now head back home to take on the red hot Indians. Toronto has one of the better home field advantages in baseball, but has actually played the fewest amount of home games in the AL so far this season. R.A. Dickey makes the start for the Jays and he's given most of the Indians hitters' problems in the few times they've faced him. Carlos Carrasco goes for the Tribe and he's coming off of a complete game shutout against the Tigers last time out. He threw 117 pitches in that game (his season high), so we could see a bit of a hangover against a difficult lineup. The Indians have won 12 games in a row and that has forced linesmakers to inflate this line a little bit. I don't like going against extreme streaks, but getting a plus price at home is too good to pass up for Toronto. Play the Jays. |
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06-29-16 | Orioles -137 v. Padres | Top | 12-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
10-Unit Play. Take #971 Baltimore over San Diego (3:40 p.m., Wednesday, June 29) Baltimore is looking to complete a quick 2 game sweep of the Padres as Yovani Gallardo returns to a National League Park where he has spent most of his career. Gallardo hasn't been great on the road so far this year as he owns an ERA of 9, but he has faced 3 lineups (Kansas City, Boston, Texas) that are more formidable than the Padres. The Orioles have won 6 games in a row and they will be facing Christian Friedrich who has gotten knocked around at Petco Park. Friedrich is 2-1 with a 5.57 ERA at home this season and he allowed 6 runs over 6 innings in his last start at home in a 7-5 loss to the Nationals. Baltimore has averaged 7 runs per contest in their 6 game streak and I think they will be able to produce again tonight. The Orioles are 4-1 in their last 5 inter league games versus a left handed starter while the Padres are 1-5 in their last 6 inter league games versus a right handed starter. I like Baltimore to get out of town with another win under their belt. Best of Luck - Strike Point Sports |
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06-28-16 | Marlins v. Tigers -105 | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #918 Detroit Tigers over Miami Marlins (7:10pm EST) Mike Pelfrey and the Tigers go up against Adam Conley and the Marlins tonight in Detroit. It hasn't been a very good season for Pelfrey with a 4.91 ERA, but at least manager Brad Ausmus is realizing that it's that third time through the order that's getting Pelfrey in big trouble in each start. Ausmus is pulling Pelfrey earlier and earlier handing it over to a bullpen that's been improving of late. That's because fireballer Shane Greene has done a fantastic job of bridging the gap in middle relief. The Tigers have been one of the better home teams in baseball over the last five years and it will be even bigger today against a team that isn't as familiar with Comerica Park. The AL has also dominated the NL over the last decade in interleague play and it still isn't fully showing up in the lines. Conley is coming off of eight shutout innings in his last start, but it's not as impressive as it appears. First off, it was against the Braves. Secondly, he only struck out four batters in those eight frames. The Tigers offense is going to give Conley some matchup problems today, as they hit left-handers extremely well. I like Detroit in this one. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-26-16 | A's -115 v. Angels | 6-7 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 52 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #927 Oakland A's (-110) over Los Angeles Angels (3:35pm EST) Sonny Gray is 3-6 with a 5.20 ERA and GM Billy Beane is worried that the trade value of his ace isn't anywhere near the level is was just a year ago. Oakland clearly will be a seller come the trade deadline, and it will be interesting to see if Gray gets moved. A lot will depend on his new few starts. The good news for Oakland is that Gray is showing signs of his former self lately. In his last outing, the 26-year old went six innings against the Brewers and yielded just one earned run while striking out seven against only one walk. He a bad game against Texas in the start before, but the two outings prior to that were both solid in Cincinnati and Houston. The talent is clearly there, and I think we're starting to the see Gray finally getting comfortable in 2016. He'll face a subpar Angel's lineup that is highly dependent on Mike Trout and Albert Pujols putting up monster numbers. Trout has held up his end of the bargain, but the 36-year old Pujols isn't providing the protection that the Angels are paying for. That means teams can pitch around Trout and try to let someone else in the lineup beat them. And so far that strategy has worked well with the Halos in the bottom half in the AL in runs scored. Hector Santiago gets the ball for Los Angeles and he's having the worst season of his career with a 4.99 ERA in his 15 starts. Santiago has been lucky in the past with lower ERAs than he's deserved according to his peripheral numbers, but this season it's finally catching up with him. This line is about 10-15 cents too short, so we're on the A's here. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-25-16 | Blue Jays -117 v. White Sox | 10-8 | Win | 100 | 3 h 55 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #967 Toronto Blue Jays over Chicago White Sox (2:10pm EST) The White Sox come into today's game winners in three of their last four games, but we've seen enough of them to know that they're dealing with some pretty big issues. After a red hot start to the season, the White Sox have one of the worst records in baseball since early May. Their hitting hasn't been able to consistently produce and the bullpen has blown several late leads in games that appeared to be well in hand. The defense has also been extremely lacking since Austin Jackson went to the disabled list. Even the strength of the team, the starting rotation, has been a weak spot of late. Miguel Gonzalez takes the hill today and he's been inconsistent at best with a 4.29 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 10 games. His control has been spotty and today he faces one of the more feared lineups in the league. The Jays haven't produced anywhere near last year's levels, but they can still put up double-digits on a bad pitcher. Knuckleballer R.A. Dickey goes for Toronto and you know pretty much what you're getting with him. He's not going to win you the game, but he'll be able to navigate a subpar White Sox lineup today. Toronto is the superior team here and they get the job done. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-24-16 | Astros v. Royals +109 | Top | 13-4 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 31 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #926 Kansas City Royals over Houston Astros (8:15pm EST) The defending world champs take on the red hot Houston Astros tonight in what should be a really good game. Kansas City still doesn't get much respect after going to the World Series for two straight seasons. They are on pace for 87 wins this season and are right in the hunt for a playoff spot in the AL once again. Yet they are underdogs at home versus a team they've played better than so far in 2016. In addition, the Royals are an outstanding 25-8 at home this season. That's the best home record in baseball and it's pretty clear why they are so dominant in Kaufman Stadium. The big spacious outfield is a big advantage for the Royals who play the best outfield defense in the majors. Edinson Volquez gets the ball for Kansas City tonight and he's probably been their most consistent starting pitcher over the last two years. He's not going to go out and dominate, but he almost always keeps his team in the game. That's all you need when you have one of the best bullpens in baseball. On the other side is left-hander Dallas Keuchel for the Stros. It's been a really tough year for Keuchel, who took home the AL Cy Young award last season. He enters today's action with a robust 5.32 ERA in 15 starts. The Astros have been one of hotter teams in the league of late, but if anything that is making this line even more out of whack. The value is definitely with the Royals here and that's where we'll go with our Game of the Week. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-23-16 | Padres -104 v. Reds | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #953 San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds (7:10pm EST) Two bad teams go at it tonight in Cincinnati, but that doesn't mean it isn't a good betting opportunity. The Padres come in at just 30-43 on the season, but they've clearly played better baseball over the last three weeks. They're 10-10 over their last 20 contests, which have featured some pretty good teams. It seems like the comments from their owner saying what an embarrassment they are, have sparked the team in some way to play better. I'm not sure how long it will last, but for right now it seems like a confident bunch. Christian Friedrich gets the assignment on the hill today and he's really looked comfortable in the San Diego rotation. He's made seven starts and has a tidy 3.15 ERA. He's coming off of his worst start of the season last time out versus the Nationals, but I think he bounces back with a good effort against the Reds. Cincinnati is clearly a peg below, as they've been outscored by a whopping 103 runs through 72 games thus far. A lot of the veterans are struggling on this team and it's trickling down to the entire roster. Joey Votto has been banged up a bit and he might not play today, which would be a huge loss in the lineup. Pitching has been the biggest problem for the Reds, and today's starter John Lamb hasn't helped matters. He comes in at 1-4 with a 4.75 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in nine starts. Lamb has flashed some signs of brilliance at times, but he just hasn't been consistent from start to start or inning to inning for that matter. The Pads are swinging the bats pretty well lately, so I expect them to give Lamb problems today. San Diego is the better team overall and they're playing better baseball at the moment. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-21-16 | Rockies v. Yankees -170 | 8-4 | Loss | -170 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #968 New York Yankees over Colorado Rockies (7:05pm EST) Last week the Rockies took two from the Yankees in Colorado, and now the Yanks look to return the favor in New York. Home field advantage is really big in interleague games as opponents don't play in those stadiums often and the familiarity factor is low. That will give the Yanks an edge today, but they're already the better team overall. New York is 8-5 over their last 13 games and the hitting is finally coming around after an extremely slow start to the 2016 campaign. The starting pitching has been erratic, but they're not asking for a lot from them. If they can just get thru six innings while keeping the team in the game, they can turn it over to the three-headed monster of Dellin Betances, Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman in the late innings. The Rockies have played a bit over their heads this season and I think regression is in order. Their defense and bullpen are big question marks - two areas that aren't always reflected in the betting line. Chad Bettis gets the ball for them today and he's been shaky all season long. I'm a little surprised they are sticking with him in the rotation, but my guess is he could get yanked after another poor outing today versus the Yankees. Take New York to get this one. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-20-16 | Cardinals v. Cubs -156 | 3-2 | Loss | -156 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #908 Chicago Cubs over St. Louis Cardinals (8:05pm EST) John Lackey faces his former club for the third time this season, and he's relished his opportunities the first couple of times around. Lackey has a 1.93 ERA in those two outings and has been on a really nice roll since the beginning of May overall. Actually since then he's been one of the best pitchers in baseball and has fit in nicely with this young Cubs team. There's no question that the Cubs are the best team in baseball and it's somewhat surprising that the market is still pricing their games at these reasonable levels. The Cubs are 25-8 at home this season and that equates to lines north of -300. Of course they aren't going to quite maintain that pace all season, but anytime their lined under -200 you have to take a close look. St. Louis isn't nearly the team that they have been over the last few seasons. Today's starter Jaime Garcia also hasn't been as good as he was in 2015 and his strikeout rate has been abysmal over his last six outings (just 12 strikeouts over his last six starts). The Cubs are swinging the bats extremely well and they've owned St. Louis this season. Take the Cubs to get the win here today. |
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06-20-16 | Orioles v. Rangers +109 | 3-4 | Win | 109 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #920 Texas Rangers over Baltimore Orioles (8:05pm EST) For some reason the Texas Rangers haven't received much respect in the betting markets over the last several weeks. In every game money is coming against them, but they continue to deliver victories. Texas has won six straight games and is 21-6 over their last 27 contests. They're getting contributions from all 25 guys on their roster and the team chemistry is amazing. Texas certainly still has its holes, but there's no way they should be an underdog at home today. The Orioles are in a tough spot here, flying in for a makeup game in between series at home in Baltimore. Kevin Gausman takes the hill for the O's and he's had some major issues on the mound over the last few weeks. In his last five starts, Gausman is sporting a 6.15 ERA and hasn't made it past the sixth inning in any of those outings. He's faced some tough opponents during that stretch, but navigating the Rangers lineup is certainly no walk in the park either. The value is with the Rangers here today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-19-16 | Tigers v. Royals -105 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 60 m | Show | |
5-unit Play Take #972 Kansas City Royals (-105) over Detroit Tigers (2:15pm EST) It didn't get a ton of attention, but the Detroit Tigers were dealt a pretty big blow a few days ago when J.D. Martinez crashed into a wall and injured his elbow. Martinez will miss four to six weeks, and a potent Tigers lineup won't be the same. Yes they still have firepower, but Martinez was probably the most underrated player on the team and his production never got the credit it deserved. He hit 38 home runs last season and was on pace for 30+ again in 2016. Today they go up against a Royals team that is playing extremely well at the moment. Kansas City is 7-1 over their last eight contests and is coming off of two straight impressive wins over the Tigers by scores of 10-3 and 16-5. Needless to say, the Royals bats have finally woken up. Detroit clearly has an edge in starting pitching today with Jordan Zimmerman going up against Chris Young, but it's not as big as it appears. Zimmermann has really struggled since the beginning of May and with the way the Royals are swinging the bats, I don't expect him to last long. That means bullpens could be a big part of this contest, and if that's the case you want to be on the Royals. Kansas City has also been phenomenal at home this season at 24-8 - the best record in baseball. You won't see them this cheap at home very often, so that's where we'll go in our Game of the Week. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-18-16 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies +155 | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 46 m | Show | |
2-unit Play Take #902 Philadelphia Phillies over Arizona Diamondbacks (3:05pm EST) Two teams with nearly identical records meet today in Philadelphia as the Phillies host the Diamondbacks. The Phils are several steps ahead in their rebuild but for some reason no one really believes it. They've made huge strides this season, mostly on the pitching side of the ledger. The starting rotation and back end of the bullpen are vastly improved as they went from the bottom of the league team ERA to middle of the pack now. Today's starter Jerad Eickhoff has been one of the big contributors in the rotation, posting a 3.40 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 13 starts in 2016. He came over in the Cole Hamels trade from Texas and has been even better than the Phils could have hoped for so far. Zack Greinke gets the ball for the D-Backs. After a slow start to the season, Greinke is clearly getting comfortable and has pitched closer to his usual self over the last few weeks. He still hasn't put together back-to-back dominating starts, so we have him a notch below where everyone else likely does. It's been a miserable season for Arizona, who went all in this offseason and now seem like they're likely to be sellers at the deadline. Arizona isn't much better than Philadelphia and this line is way too high. Take the Phillies as generous home underdogs today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-17-16 | Angels -138 v. A's | 2-3 | Loss | -138 | 10 h 25 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #973 Los Angeles Angels over Oakland A's (9:35pm EST) We get a bargain price on the hottest pitcher in the big leagues today. Matt Shoemaker has been doing a great Clayton Kershaw impression over the last few weeks, and hasn't received the attention he deserves. Over his last five starts, the 29-year old right-hander has a 1.88 ERA and 0.83 WHIP. More impressively, Shoemaker has a devastating 48-1 K-BB ratio over that span. He's throwing his dominant splitter a lot more these days and opponents just can't pick it up. I expect Shoemaker to continue dominating and we'll look to ride him for more profits. He gets a weak A's lineup that has been abysmal of late. Yesterday, Colby Lewis of the Rangers was throwing a perfect game against them until two outs in the eighth inning. And Lewis isn't exactly an All-Star caliber pitcher. Shoemaker will have his way today, and the Angels should get him plenty of runs against a struggling Kendall Graveman of Oakland. Take the Halos here. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-14-16 | Reds +114 v. Braves | 3-1 | Win | 114 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #905 Cincinnati Reds over Atlanta Braves (7:10pm EST) The Atlanta Braves are clearly the worst team in baseball, and when they are the favorite, you need to take a close look at fading them. Most people put the Cincinnati Reds in the same pile as Atlanta - terrible, rebuilding team with no hope in 2016. Sure the Reds are no playoff team this season, but they are light years ahead of Atlanta in one big area. Offensively, the Reds can actually hit a little bit. Guys like Adam Duvall, Zack Cozart and Eugenio Suarez are having terrific breakthrough seasons for the Reds. Put them around veterans like Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce and Billy Hamilton, and you actually have a nice lineup. The same can't be said of Atlanta, who ranks dead last in runs scored in baseball. On the surface, the Braves have a pitching edge today with Julio Teheran going up against Brandon Finnegan. However, Atlanta has really struggled against lefties this season. In fact, the Braves are hitting a meager .221 against southpaws in 2016 - the worst mark in baseball. We'll fade the worst team in baseball today and gladly accept a plus price. Go with the Reds here. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-12-16 | Padres +158 v. Rockies | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 11 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #909 San Diego Padres over Colorado Rockies (4:10pm EST) There isn't a tougher place to make your major league debut than Coors Field. Tyler Anderson will face that challenge today when he faces the Padres. The young left-hander wasn't a highly-touted arm, so it's a bit surprising seeing him up here so soon. Anderson has pitched well in the minors this season, but his peripheral numbers weren't as good in Triple-A after he was promoted. He struck out just 6.9 batters per nine innings in his three starts in Triple-A this season, and you would expect that to be even less against big league hitters. And in Coors Field, if you can't get many strikeouts, you are in for a long day pitching in one of the most spacious parks in baseball. The Padres don't have a fantastic lineup, but they do hit well against left-handers. They've scored the second-most runs against southpaws in the NL this season despite playing half of their games in an extreme pitcher's park. San Diego will trot Christian Friedrich to the mound for this sixth start of the season. He's been impressive thus far at 3-1 with a 2.57 ERA. His control has been spotty, however, and that could be an issue today. I think he can outpitch the rookie and navigate his way through five or six quality innings versus the Rockies. Take San Diego at a decent underdog price. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-11-16 | Tigers v. Yankees -119 | 6-1 | Loss | -119 | 9 h 37 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #974 New York Yankees over Detroit Tigers (7:15pm EST) The New York Yankees are back on track and playing some of the best baseball in the American League at the moment. The Yanks are 15-8 over the last few weeks and their three-headed monster in the bullpen is pitching lights out. New York just needs to play their opponents even thru the first six innings and they're in really good shape. Masahiro Tanaka makes the start today for the Yankees and he's certainly capable of pitching well enough to keep them in the game until the late innings. Tanaka comes in with a 2.76 ERA 1.01 WHIP in 12 starts this season. He's pitching more to contact now, but he's done a fantastic job of avoiding the home run ball in 2016. That's an important factor pitching in Yankee Stadium, especially against a team that slugs like the Tigers do. Justin Verlander gets the ball for Detroit, and he's been pitching well of late. He's certainly never going to be the same guy we saw a few years ago, and he probably gets a little too much respect in the betting markets for his past accomplishments. I expect both starters to pitch well, but when it gets to the late innings the Yankees have a big advantage over the Tigers. Take the red hot Yankees at home at a pretty low price. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-10-16 | Marlins v. Diamondbacks -128 | 8-6 | Loss | -128 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
5-unit Play Take #912 Arizona Diamondbacks (-145) over Miami Marlins (9:40pm EST) If you're making a list of pitchers to consider fading on a regular basis, Justin Nicolino of the Marlins is probably going to be on it. The young left-hander has managed a 4.37 ERA, but his peripheral numbers are hideous and things are likely to get worse. Nicolino is striking out just 3.6 batters per nine innings. Yes, that's correct. Nicolino has the lowest strikeout rate in the major league for pitchers with more than 40 innings of work. That's not going to cut it at the big league level, especially considering his walk rate isn't very good either. Luckily Nicolino pitches in a big ballpark in Miami, but that's not the case today. There's a good chance that Chase Field will expose Nicolino in a big way today. Patrick Corbin makes the start for the Diamondbacks, his 13th of the season. It's been a disappointing 2016 campaign for him so far, but his last year against the Cubs was very encouraging. He went seven innings in Wrigley while allowing just two earned runs on five hits. This line is about 10 cents too low, so we're on Arizona today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-09-16 | Pirates v. Rockies -113 | 5-11 | Win | 100 | 5 h 14 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #968 Colorado Rockies over Pittsburgh Pirates (5:10pm EST) There aren't too many situational spots in baseball where you can find an edge, but today's game between the Pirates and Rockies definitely contains one. This is a make-up game due to a rain out earlier in the year, so it's a single game that is being played on what should have been an off day for both teams. No big deal for the Rockies, as they're the home team today and are starting a homestand after wrapping up a series in Los Angeles yesterday. But for the Pirates, they are traveling in from Pittsburgh to play this game and then will head right back to Pittsburgh for another series on Friday. That's a long roundtrip for one game, and it's going to be somewhat difficult on the players. Colorado will have the starting pitching edge in today's game with Chad Bettis going up against Jeff Locke. Bettis and Locke have similarly bad numbers, but remember that Bettis pitches in Coors Field when he's at home and Locke pitches in a friendly PNC Park. Bettis also posted better number last year and is still improving at age 27. If this game is close late, the Pirates bullpen could be at a disadvantage. They haven't had a good season overall, and they've used some of their best guys a little too much lately. Play Colorado today as a small home favorite in a really good spot. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-07-16 | Red Sox v. Giants +115 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #980 San Francisco Giants over Boston Red Sox (10:15pm EST) A great interleague series gets underway in AT&T Park as the Giants host the Red Sox starting on Tuesday night. These are clearly two of the best teams in baseball, but they certainly do it in different ways. The Red Sox mash teams to death with their amazing lineup and hope that the pitching is just good enough to keep the opponents at bay. The Giants utilize a more steady approach that combines a good pitching staff, solid defense and a balanced lineup. Both approaches have obviously worked out well, but I think the Giants' success is a bit more sustainable as they don't rely on one particular facet of the game to win, and they have some of the intangibles that other teams covet. Today we have a pitching matchup of Rick Porcello and Albert Suarez. Porcello is having a nice comeback year for Boston, but he's regressed a bit in his last few outings. Porcello has a 5.79 ERA over his last four starts and has struck out just 16 batters in 23.1 innings of work. Suarez isn't a highly-touted prospect, but the Red Sox have never seen him and he doesn't have much of a track record to gauge yet. The Giants should have a decent home edge in this one, as Boston doesn't come often to visit. Value with San Francisco here. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-06-16 | Rockies v. Dodgers -144 | 6-1 | Loss | -144 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #908 Los Angeles Dodgers over Colorado Rockies (10:10pm EST) The Los Angeles Dodgers have received quite a bit of criticism in 2016 and I don't think that it's warranted. The Dodgers are on pace for 87 wins and are right in the hunt for a playoff spot in the NL. Sure they aren't as good when Clayton Kershaw isn't pitching, but the offense is starting to heat up and the bullpen has been light outs lately. Today they're at home versus the Colorado Rockies and it's hard to understand why this line is so low. The Rockies have been spiraling downward over the last few weeks and the rumors are starting to surface about who will get traded away next month. Colorado is just 5-13 over their last 18 games as the offense has sputtered. Mike Bolsinger takes the mound for the Dodgers against Tyler Chatwood for the Rockies. On paper, the edge goes to Chatwood, but the margin isn't as big as it appears when you look at the peripheral numbers. Given that and the current form of these two teams, we're all over the Dodgers at this price. |
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06-06-16 | Rays -113 v. Diamondbacks | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show | |
10-unit Play Take #919 Tampa Bay Rays over Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40pm EST) The Arizona Diamondbacks won the offseason, but that usually doesn't mean much come the regular season - just ask the 2015 San Diego Padres. Arizona signed prized free agent Zack Greinke, traded for Shelby Miller and also acquired Jean Segura over the winter. But so far the D-Backs have a 25-34 record to show for it and it's not a big surprise to me. There are just far too many holes on this Arizona squad, and they've been exacerbated by the injuries to A.J. Pollock and David Peralta. The starting rotation has been a disaster at times and today's starter Robbie Ray certainly has had his struggles. He comes in 2-4 with a 4.74 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in 11 starts. At home it's been even worse, and the left-hander owns a hideous 6.93 ERA in Chase Field this season. He'll face a Tampa Bay Rays team that is struggling right now with 11 losses over their last 14 games. However, the Rays have hit really well against lefties this season. The Rays have a .811 OPS against southpaws in 2016 - the second best mark in the AL behind just the Red Sox. They just give Chris Archer plenty of support today, which he may need. It hasn't been a good year for Archer, who was coming off of a Cy Young caliber 2015 campaign. I think he'll get it going at some point soon, and the Diamondbacks might be the team to get him going. Not many guys have seen much of Archer and he's not an easy guy to pick up right away. He doesn't have to be his best today to pick up the win, so we're on the Rays here. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-05-16 | White Sox v. Tigers -130 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 1 h 26 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #966 Detroit Tigers over Chicago White Sox (1:10pm EST) Justin Verlander isn't the same pitcher he was a few years ago when he was winning Cy Young awards, but he certainly is a lot better than the guy we've seen over the last two years. Over his last five starts, the big right-hander has a sparkling 1.91 ERA and 0.77 WHIP to go along with 44 strikeouts. His control still isn't what it used to be, but Verlander is definitely in a really nice groove and he goes up against a weak-hitting White Sox lineup today. Chicago is just 10th in the AL in runs scored and they will probably be without two-thirds of their starting outfield today as Austin Jackson and Melky Cabrera are both doubtful. Jose Quintana gets the ball for the Sox and he's put together quite a season in 2016. Quintana owns a 2.13 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 11 starts, but he hasn't been nearly as good in his last three outings. He also likely won't pitch all nine innings, and that could be a problem for a struggling White Sox bullpen. Last week they blew three late leads versus the Royals, including a six-run lead in the bottom of the ninth. Detroit clearly has the edge offensively and they've also been one of the best home teams in the league over the last five years. Take the Tigers at a reasonable price here. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-04-16 | Brewers v. Phillies -107 | 6-3 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 14 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #904 Philadelphia Phillies (-110) over Milwaukee Brewers (4:05pm EST) Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-03-16 | Mariners v. Rangers -132 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #974 Texas Rangers over Seattle Mariners (8:05pm EST) Yu Darvish is back and he certainly didn't show much sign of rust in his first start back from Tommy John surgery on Saturday. He went five innings against a really good Pirates lineup and yielded just one run on three hits and a walk. Darvish struck out seven Pittsburgh batters and looked like the same guy we've seen dominate the league three years. Today he draws the Seattle Mariners in a showdown for first place in the AL West. The Rangers are battling through some injuries and a suspension right now, but so are the Mariners to be honest. Neither team is 100%, but I really like the depth of this Texas team a lot more than I do for Seattle. Over the last few years, no team has been more banged up the Rangers have, yet they've continued to get production from the next man up time after time. Case in point this season is Nomar Mazara, who has a legitimate chance of taking home the AL Rookie of the Year hardware. Today's price on Darvish at home is probably the lowest you're going to see all season long. If he continues to pitch like he did in the past, you'll have a hard time finding him less than -170 going forward. So I think there's value here with some still worried about Darvish shaking off some rust. Play Texas at a bargain price. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-03-16 | Yankees +112 v. Orioles | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #965 New York Yankees over Baltimore Orioles (7:05pm EST) After a very slow start to the 2016 campaign, the New York Yankees are finally playing like their fans expect. The Yanks are 16-11 since May 5th and finally have a healthy squad at full strength. Several hitters have missed time this season along with closer Aroldis Chapman. Nathan Eovaldi goes for the Yankees tonight and he's quietly putting together a really nice season. He's 6-2 with a 3.71 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 10 starts thus far. Even more impressive, Eovaldi is striking out a career-high 8.5 batters per nine innings and he's cut his walk rate significantly from last season. Eovaldi has even increased his groundball rate a couple of ticks in 2016. There are rumors that Eovaldi is being coveted by other teams if the Yankees decide to look towards the future at the trade deadline, but there's no way they are parting with such a powerful arm. Over his last three outings, Eovaldi has a sparkling 1.00 ERA and 0.78 WHIP so he's definitely found his groove. He'll have his hands full with a tough Baltimore lineup tonight, but I think Eovaldi is up for the challenge. The O's have exceeded expectations so far in 2016 and I don't think they can continue to play at this type of pace. Their starting rotation has been much better than anticipated, but we're already starting to see some regression there. Chris Tillman is one of those guys that came out guns a blazing, but we've seen him come back down to earth of late. Tillman has walked nine guys over his last three outings and had his second-worst outing of the season last time out in Cleveland. The Yankees are one of the few teams that Baltimore doesn't have an advantage against in the late innings if the game is tight. The trio of Dellin Betances, Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman can be counted on if the Yanks have the lead after six innings. Take New York as our big 10-unit MLB play today. |
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06-02-16 | Brewers v. Phillies -110 | 4-1 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #906 Philadelphia Phillies over Milwaukee Brewers (7:05pm EST) The Phillies have been sputtering of a bit of late, but I still think they've been largely overlooked this season. At 26-27, this Phillies squad is well ahead in the rebuilding schedule and I wouldn't be surprised if they finish the season within striking distance of the .500 mark. One of the main reasons is their tremendous pitching staff, which includes today's starter Jerad Eickhoff who came over in the Cole Hamels trade last year. Eickhoff is only 2-7 so far in 2016, but his ERA isn't bad at 4.07 and he has a nice K-BB ratio. He doesn't have overpowering stuff, but the guy knows how to pitch and I think he can be a successful middle-of-the-rotation starter for years to come. Eickhoff definitely has the leg up over Brewers starter Chase Anderson right now. Anderson hasn't been able to figure it out in 2016, posting a 5.00 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 10 starts. He pitched against the Phillies back in late April and the results were not good. Anderson gave up six runs in four innings on eight hits and four walks. The Phils don't have a really potent lineup, but they obviously saw something they liked in Anderson's approach. This price is too low, so we're going with Philadelphia today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-01-16 | Tigers v. Angels +102 | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #968 Los Angles Angels over Detroit Tigers (7:05pm EST) There's a starting pitcher that is flying under the radar in today's game between the Tigers and Angels, and it's probably not the guy you think. Michael Fulmer has had a nice start to his career with Detroit, but it's Matt Shoemaker that should be getting the attention right now. Shoemaker is coming off of back-to-back brilliant starts, but it's being masked by a terrible start to the season. Shoemaker is just 3-5 with a bulky 5.96 ERA in nine starts, but he's certainly figured things out in the last two outings against the Astros and Orioles. In those starts, Shoemaker has given up a total of two runs in 15.2 innings of work while allowing just 10 hits. Even more impressive, he's struck out a total of 23 batters while walking zero. Clearly Shoemaker has figured some things out mechanically and I expect another big effort tonight versus the Tigers. Fulmer has put together a nice rookie season so far, but things are only going to get tougher for him as the league adjusts. We'll take the Angels as a home underdog here. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-31-16 | Pirates v. Marlins -130 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #904 Miami Marlins over Pittsburgh Pirates (7:10pm EST) Two aces go at it on Tuesday night but there's one who definitely stands out in this matchup. Jose Fernandez had a slow start to his 2016 campaign, but he's finally gotten into a nice rhythm with four great starts in a row. Over his last four outings, Fernandez is 4-0 with a sparkling 1.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP to go along with 43 strikeouts. Fernandez has also been amazing at home throughout his career and the Marlins are a spectacular 25-2 over his last 27 starts in Miami. There's no question he's amongst the best pitchers in the game and he's getting even better. On the other side is Gerrit Cole, who is putting together another really good season in Pittsburgh. Cole is 5-3 with a 2.53 ERA in nine starts, but his peripheral numbers are weaker this season. His strikeouts are down 15% from last year, he's walking 40% more batters, and his groundball rate is way down. He's been lucky to get out of quite a few jams this season, but eventually the numbers are going to catch up to him. Miami has a bigger edge on the mound than meets the eyes, and there's plenty of value at this price. Take the Marlins at home. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-30-16 | Rangers +134 v. Indians | 9-2 | Win | 134 | 7 h 37 m | Show | |
10-unit Play Take #967 Texas Rangers over Cleveland Indians (6:10pm EST) The Texas Rangers are sitting in first place in the AL West, but it doesn't seem like they're getting very much respect in the betting markets so far. Texas has routinely been an underdog or small favorite in games they look like the better team. Today's game is another great example, as Texas is a decent-sized underdog against the Cleveland Indians in a pitching matchup that is fairly even. Derek Holland goes up against Josh Tomlin this evening for their respective squads. Tomlin is having a better 2016 so far, but based on track records these pitchers are on relatively equal footing and I think this one comes down to other areas such as offense and bullpens. These teams have scored nearly the exact same runs this season on offense, although the Tribe is missing Michael Brantley right now who hasn't played much in 2016. The Cleveland bullpen has been much better, but I think Texas has made the right moves in shoring things up. They demoted ex-closer Shawn Tolleson and also brought up fireballer Matt Bush from the minor leagues. I think we'll see big improvement from the Texas pen going forward. This line is about 10-15 cents too high, so we'll take the underdog. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-30-16 | Red Sox v. Orioles +108 | 7-2 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 60 m | Show | |
5-unit Play Take #964 Baltimore Orioles over Boston Red Sox (1:35pm EST) The Boston Red Sox have grabbed a lot of attention in the AL East so far this season, and for good reason. The Sox are in first place with a 30-20 record and have had the best offense in baseball while doing it. But the Baltimore Orioles are only one game behind Boston and it doesn't look like they're going away. The O's are flying under the radar a bit at 28-20 and have surprisingly done it with some pretty good pitching. Baltimore is ranked 4th in the AL in staff ERA. Their bullpen is ranked second with a 2.50 ERA behind just the Royals. Tyler Wilson makes the start today for Baltimore and he's done a nice job stepping into a role that no one expected for him before the season. Wilson owns a 3.80 ERA and 1.13 WHIP overall in nine games, splitting his duties between the rotation and bullpen. Today he gets a true test against the Red Sox, although he did pitch three scoreless innings in Fenway in relief back in April. Boston counters with knuckleballer Steven Wright, who has been a great story in 2016 so far. He's another guy that wasn't counted in for the rotation, but has been terrific with a 2.52 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in nine starts. Boston is going to need him going to go deep into today's game, because their bullpen has been worked pretty hard coming into this series. In Toronto they went into extra innings on Sunday and actually went to starter Clay Buchholz in relief in the 9th inning. Closer Craig Kimbrel threw 39 pitches the other day, so he may not be available today. Add it all up, and I like Baltimore to get a win here at home. |
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05-29-16 | Yankees -108 v. Rays | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 1 h 2 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #919 New York Yankees over Tampa Bay Rays (1:10pm EST) When Kevin Kiermaier went down for the Tampa Bay Rays last week, there wasn't much press covering it. In most people's eyes, he's an average player at best that doesn't make much of a difference. Well those people couldn't be more wrong. Kiermaier has been the best defender in baseball over the last couple of seasons, and Tampa's defense with and without him has been amazing. Kiermaier has tremendous range in centerfield and covers the gaps to make the leftfielder and rightfielder better. In 2015, Kiermaier saved an unheard of 42 runs patrolling the outfield. That equates to approximately four wins he contributed with just his glove alone. Clearly the Rays are a far worse team without him, and I don't think that's in the betting line. Today Jake Odorizzi is on the hill for Tampa and he's been not having as good a season as his 3.46 ERA indicates. His Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) ERA is 4.25 and he's seen a dip in his strikeouts from prior years. He'll be facing the Yankees today and they've played good baseball over the last couple of week. The Yanks are 14-8 over their last 22 games and the improved pitching has been the key. Nathan Eovaldi is one of the guys that has stepped up his game with back-to-back really good outings against the Diamondbacks and Blue Jays. We'll go with the better team right now with the better starting pitcher. Take the Yankees at a gift of a price. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-28-16 | Tigers v. A's -112 | Top | 3-12 | Win | 100 | 6 h 45 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #970 Oakland A's over Detroit Tigers (4:05pm EST) Two unproven starting pitchers square off today in Oakland as the A's host the Tigers. Matt Boyd has just been called up for his first start in 2016. He pitcher for the Blue Jays and Tigers last season and looked completely lost on the mound for the majority of his starts. Boyd posted a 7.53 ERA and was really plagued by the home run ball, yielding an unheard of 2.7 per nine innings. The A's have some pop in their bats and could knock Boyd out of this one early on with the long ball. Left-hander Jesse Hahn gets the ball for Oakland in his fifth start of the season. Hahn has put together two very good seasons at the big league level but has had a tough time staying healthy and keeping his spot in the rotation. His numbers this season aren't great so far, but he's managed a 4.07 ERA and I think the best has yet to come for this 26-year old. The Tigers struggle with southpaws, so Hahn will be in the driver's seat for today's start. If this game is close late, I also give a big edge to the Oakland bullpen. They have several guys to call on, while the Tigers have struggled finding consistency amongst their arms. I like Oakland to get the win today at home at a reasonable price. |
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05-27-16 | Giants +109 v. Rockies | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #911 San Francisco Giants over Colorado Rockies (8:40pm EST) No one is hotter than the San Francisco Giants are right now. The Giants are 13-1 over their last 14 games with their lone loss coming against Jake Arrieta and the Cubs. After a slow start, all of the new parts are melding together nicely and this is looking like a team built to make yet another World Series run. Much like the overall club, Matt Cain struggled early on but has figured it out lately. Over his last three starts, Cain has a 1.71 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 21 innings of work. Those starts were against the Blue Jays, Diamondbacks and Cubs, so he was certainly tested and passed with flying colors. Today he has another tough assignment pitching in Coors Field against the Rockies offense. Colorado is off to a better than expected start, but I don't think they can sustain it as their pitching is overachieving. Tyler Chatwood is one of those guys throwing much better than his career numbers. He comes in at 5-3 with a 3.02 ERA in 9 starts. However, his home/road splits are amongst the worst in all of baseball on the home side. On the road Chatwood has a sparkling 0.53 ERA, but at home in Coors he owns a horrid 6.65 ERA. It's tough to understand how the red hot Giants are underdogs in this one, so we'll go that direction here. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-27-16 | Dodgers +111 v. Mets | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #905 Los Angeles Dodgers over New York Mets (7:10pm EST) The time has come for Julio Urias to make his major league debut. There's been a ton of anticipation building for the 19-year old and many think he has future ace written all over him. Those are lofty expectations for the first starting pitcher to debut as a teenager since Felix Hernandez in 2005. While I think he'll have some bumps in the road this season, I expect Urias to impress tonight. First of all, he'll be facing a Mets lineup that hasn't hit lefties that well this season. New York is just 13th in the NL in hitting against southpaws this season and they'll be going up against one they've never seen today. Lefties are usually a little tougher to pick up right away, so Urias should have a big advantage the first couple of times through the Mets order. In Triple-A this season, Urias is 4-1 with a ridiculous 1.10 ERA and 0.78 WHIP. He has 44 strikeouts versus just eight walks in 41 innings of work. That's domination. The Mets will trot out Jacob deGrom for this one and he hasn't been his usual self. His last few outings have been really shaky and deGrom has a subpar 16-7 K-BB ratio over his last four outings. His velocity is down and there could be a mechanical issue lingering there. The Dodgers lineup doesn't have any easy outs, so deGrom will have his hands full today. I like the Dodgers in this one behind the youngster Urias. |
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05-27-16 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays -125 | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
5-unit Play Take #916 Toronto Blue Jays over Boston Red Sox (7:05pm EST) This selection is a simple regression to the mean type of thought process that usually reaps benefits. The Boston Red Sox are sky high right now at 29-18 and the best record in the AL. Meanwhile, the Toronto Blue Jays are below the .500 mark thru 49 games - not exactly where we saw things before the season. I see the Red Sox taking a step back for a couple of reasons. First off, their hitting has been unbelievable and they simply won't be able to sustain it for a full season. Boston has been lucky to avoid a lot of the ace pitchers so far and they've played in a ton of hitter-friendly parks so far in 2016. They've also played 28 home games already (tops in the league), while playing just 19 on the road thus far. Toronto's bats are starting to wake up and we all know what they're capable of once they get rolling. They also can mash a lot more at home in the Rogers Centre where they are today. Big advantage on the mound in this matchup for the Jays as Aaron Sanchez goes up against Joe Kelly. Sanchez is coming into his own and has future star written all over him. He's 4-1 with a 3.20 ERA with much improved peripheral numbers over his rookie season in 2015. Kelly has had plenty of chances to figure it out with the Cardinals and BoSox and just hasn't been able to put it all together. I think Toronto knocks him out early and cruises to a relatively easy here. Take the Blue Jays in our Game of the Week. |
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05-26-16 | Diamondbacks v. Pirates -159 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 2 h 39 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #952 Pittsburgh Pirates over Arizona Diamondbacks (12:35pm EST) Not many teams have made bettors more profit than the Pittsburgh Pirates have over the last 3+ years. If you have bet for the Pirates in every single game going back to the start of the 2013 season, you'd be up nearly 55 units. Once again in 2016 they are making bettors money as Pittsburgh is under the radar with the Cubs getting all of the attention in the NL Central. The big surprise with the Pirates is how well they've been hitting so far, as they're third in the NL in runs scored and first in OBP. If they can keep that up and get their pitchers going a little bit, they're going to be very tough to beat. Gerrit Cole doesn't need to make any adjustments, as he's been very solid once again. The young right-hander is 5-3 with a 2.79 ERA and is coming off of three straight brilliant starts against the Rockies, Cubs and Cardinals. Today he gets the D-backs, who are really hurting without A.J. Pollock and David Peralta in the outfield. Paul Goldschmidt has no protection in the middle of the lineup and he's getting pitched around a lot. Goldschmidt is hitting a paltry .241 and seems to be feeling the pressure of having to deliver in a hapless lineup. Southpaw Patrick Corbin goes for Arizona and he's having a down season after looking really good in 2015 coming off an injury. Until he figures it out, Corbin is someone we're looking to fade. Take the Pirates at home to get the win today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-25-16 | Angels v. Rangers -113 | 9-15 | Win | 100 | 3 h 45 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #916 Texas Rangers over Los Angles Angels (2:05pm EST) It's somewhat hard to believe, but Colby Lewis has finally figured it out. At the age of 36, Lewis is having the best season of his lackluster career. He's 3-0 with a 2.75 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in nine starts in 2016. Yes it's still early, but in watching him pitch on several occasions you can see the improvement in his stuff and the confidence growing. The crazy thing is that Lewis just keeps improving in each start and is working on a streak of five straight outings in which he completed seven innings of work and allowed 2, 3, 2, 2 and 0 runs respectively. Even more impressive, Lewis has walked a total of just two batters in those 35 innings of work. And it's not like he faced a bunch of inferior opponents in those starts, as he went up against the Blue Jays twice along with the Astros and White Sox in that stretch. He also faced the Angels a few weeks ago and held them in check. Today he'll get the chance to do it again. The Halos have been playing well, but it's only a matter of time before all of the injuries take a toll on this team. They're playing without shortstop Andrelton Simmons, closer Huston Street and outfielders Daniel Nava and Craig Gentry along with a few others. This isn't a deep team and the bottom half of their lineup is Triple-A quality at the moment. Hector Santiago will toe the rubber for Los Angeles and he's coming off of a horrible performance against the Orioles last time out. Santiago lasted just 2.2 innings while allowing four runs on three home runs. I've never been a big fan of his pitching style. The Rangers lineup has been getting the job done of late and has plenty of thump to get to Santiago today. Take Texas at home in game where we see plenty of value. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-24-16 | Blue Jays v. Yankees -125 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #964 New York Yankees over Toronto Blue Jays (7:05pm EST) Good spot today to the play the Yankees as they are at home versus the Blue Jays on Tuesday night. Nathan Eovaldi goes for the Yanks and he's had electric stuff so far in 2016. His ERA doesn't reflect it yet, but Eovaldi is throwing the ball extremely well with a healthy 45-10 K-BB ratio to go along with a strong 55% groundball rate. Those numbers will serve him well in Yankee Stadium, especially against a tough Jays' lineup. Toronto sends knuckle-baller R.A. Dickey to the mound today. Dickey is just 2-5 with a 4.50 ERA and nothing really stands out in his peripheral numbers. Yankees Stadium isn't the ideal place for him either as the home run ball has gotten him far too many times. The Yankee bats are finally coming around and that's more than the Blue Jays can say at the moment. Somehow Toronto is ranked just 7th in runs scored in the AL after demolishing big league pitching last year when they led the majors by a wide margin. On the surface this line looks about right, but a deeper dive shows the Yanks are the right side. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-23-16 | Padres v. Giants -170 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #908 San Francisco Giants over San Diego Padres (10:15pm EST) The San Diego Padres suffered a crushing 9-5 loss in extra innings yesterday against the Los Angeles Dodgers. The game went 17 innings (nearly two full games), so there may be a couple of guys getting the night off in this one. If not, it's hard to imagine the Padres are going to be at full strength. They'll have a tough time with right-hander Johnny Cueto, who has fit in really nicely with the Giants. Cueto is 6-1 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.10 WHIP and has seemingly improved in each starts as he's gotten more comfortable with Buster Posey behind the plate. The Pads counter with Drew Pomeranz, who has put together a nice season in San Diego so far. He's 4-4 with a 1.96 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in eight starts. However, unlike Cueto, his peripherals don't' really support his ERA. Pomeranz is walking 4.1 batters per nine innings and that's eventually going to get him in trouble. He also doesn't keep the ball down enough and is vulnerable to the long ball in the right ballpark. The forecast calls for the wind blowing out tonight in AT&T, so the Giants will put that to the test. San Francisco is on a really nice roll going 10-1 over their last 11 games, with the only loss against Jake Arrieta and the Cubs. The Padres have lost five of seven and there are already trade rumors swirling around for Matt Kemp and some of the San Diego pitchers. Take the Giants to get the job done tonight. |
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05-23-16 | Indians v. White Sox -106 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #922 Chicago White Sox over Cleveland Indians (5:10pm EST) The Chicago White Sox have been of the biggest surprises of the 2016 season so far. They enter today's matchup at 26-18 atop the AL Central a little past the one-quarter mark of the season. Most are expecting this team to come down to earth a little more, but I think they have staying power. The offense is getting better as they are in the middle of the pack after finishing at the very bottom last year in the AL in runs scored. That's all they need with their pitching staff and defense. One of the biggest reasons the Sox have improved so much is their stellar defense, which leads the AL in defensive efficiency. A lot of that credit goes to Adam Eaton in RF, who has been the best defender in baseball in 2016. Mat Latos has been a nice surprise in the Chicago rotation so far. He's struggled in his last couple of starts, but overall he's been a huge bargain at just $3 million for the season. The Indians send young right-hander Michael Clevinger to the hill for this one. This will be only his second ever big league start and he was a little shaky in his debut last week against the Reds. This is a low price for the division-leading White Sox, so we'll look that way today in the first game of the doubleheader. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-22-16 | Indians +113 v. Red Sox | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 29 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #967 Cleveland Indians over Boston Red Sox (1:35pm EST) Danny Salazar is quickly developing into an ace pitcher for the Indians and he's not getting quite enough recognition right now. The young right-hander is 4-2 with a 1.80 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in eight starts for the Tribe this season. Even more impressive, Salazar is striking out nearly 11 batters per nine innings. He gets a red hot Boston Red Sox lineup today, but they haven't faced an arm like this yet. Boston goes with Rick Porcello, who is having a nice 2016 season as well. Porcello is 6-2 with a 3.51 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in his eight starts. Last season Porcello had the worst season of his career with a 4.92 ERA in his first year in Boston. The real Porcello is probably somewhere between last year's numbers and this year's. This line is just too high with this pitching matchup. Salazar is at another level and can win this game all by himself if he's on. Take the Indians today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-21-16 | Rockies +123 v. Pirates | 5-1 | Win | 123 | 6 h 27 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #906 Pittsburgh Pirates over Colorado Rockies (4:05pm EST) For three straight years the Pittsburgh Pirates have earned a wild card spot in the National League. And thus far, it looks like they'll be doing that once again. But this year is a bit different as the Pirates are winning in different ways. In previous years, they relied heavily on their pitching and defense to win them baseball games. This season, it's clearly the offense doing most of the damage. The Pirates are second in the National League in OBP and have plated the fifth most runs despite playing in a tougher run-scoring environment. The pitching will eventually come around as Ray Searage is simply one of the best pitching coaches on the planet. He's turned around many struggling arms throughout his career and one of his latest projects is Jon Niese. The veteran lefty is sporting an ugly 5.28 ERA in eight starts so far, but progress is being made. He just put together back-to-back quality starts and is getting more confident under Searage. Today he'll face a dangerous Rockies lineup, but one that isn't quite the same on the road as they are in Coors Field. Tyler Chatwood goes for the Rockies and he's had a pretty good 2016 campaign thus far. But his track record is extremely shaky and I tend to trust the back of the baseball card a little more than the small sample we've seen this season. The Pirates have been one of the better teams at home over the last 3+ seasons, while the Rockies have been one of MLB's worst road teams over the last several years. Take Pittsburgh at home laying a short price today. |
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05-21-16 | Indians +132 v. Red Sox | 1-9 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 16 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #921 Cleveland Indians over Boston Red Sox (4:05pm EST) It was a shocker that Trevor Bauer didn't start the season in the Indians rotation this year. He's been improving every year and is one of the hardest working guys in baseball off the field. Due to some injuries, Bauer is back where he belongs and he's taking advantage of the opportunity. He has a 3.47 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in his four starts and his stuff has been really good. He'll face an extremely talented Red Sox lineup today, but Bauer is one of those pitchers that gets more amped up for the better teams. He should be at his best today and I think the Tribe will give him plenty of support against Joe Kelly. You have to think that Kelly is just one bad start away from losing his spot in the rotation. Last season he posted a miserable 4.82 ERA in 25 starts and showed very little to get excited about. This season he's at a whopping 9.35 ERA in three starts and has had a tough time locating his pitches. The Indians will take advantage today and get the win. |
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05-19-16 | Indians v. Reds +120 | 7-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 5 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #920 Cincinnati Reds over Cleveland Indians (7:10pm EST) The battle of Ohio series continues as the Reds host the Indians tonight. Josh Tomlin toes the rubber for the Indians, and this is probably one of the last places he'd like to pitch. Great American Ballpark is known as a big home run park and Tomlin has had tons of trouble with dingers throughout his career. In fact, the 31-year old right-hander has yielded 1.5 home runs per nine innings over his career. This year is even worse as Tomlin has allowed a robust 1.8 homers per nine. The Reds don't have a ton of thump in their lineup, but guys like Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips and Jay Bruce will pose problems for Tomlin. On the other side is rookie Tim Adleman for Cincinnati. The rookie has been solid in three starts with the big club, going 1-1 with a 3.38 ERA in 16 innings of work. The Tribe is short-handed right now with Michael Brantley on the disabled list. He's the guy that makes the offense go, so the Indians have had trouble scoring runs without him. This line is about 10-15 cents too high, so we're taking the home underdog Reds here. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-18-16 | Mariners +102 v. Orioles | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #969 Seattle Mariners over Baltimore Orioles (7:05pm EST) Two first place teams go at it in this one as the Orioles host the Mariners. Both squads are exceeding expectations, but I only think one of these teams has a legitimate chance at postseason play. The O's are leading the way in the AL East, but I just don't see them keeping it up with the problems they have in their rotation and with some of the holes in their lineup. Yes they club lots of home runs, but they also strike out a ton and have problems getting guys on base before hitting those bombs. They're certainly a dangerous team, but not one that consistently win games throughout the course of the regular season. The Mariners went through an overhaul in the offseason and I like what new GM Jerry Dipoto has put together. The M's are one of the more balanced teams in the AL with speed, power, on base guys and consistent hitters. If I had to predict the winner of the AL West right now, I'd say it will be Seattle. Today's starters are a lot like the teams overall. Both Chris Tillman and Taijuan Walker have good numbers so far, but I'm much more confident in Walker maintaining his success. He's one of the most talented pitchers in the league and is getting better in every start at the tender age of 23. We've seen enough of Tillman to know what he is, so regression is definitely in order for him. We'll gladly take Seattle at the plus price, taking the better team and the better pitcher. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-17-16 | Giants v. Padres +160 | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #912 San Diego Padres over San Francisco Giants (10:10pm EST) The San Francisco Giants were picked by many to be World Champions before the season. It is an even-numbered year, so it does make some sense. But so far, the Giants have looked a little shaky on several fronts. First off, the bullpen has struggled quite a bit with a 4.01 ERA despite pitching in a friendly pitcher's park. Two key pieces are on the disabled list and several guys have been ineffective in the early going. The defense has also been a concern, as they rate towards the bottom in defensive efficiency after placing near the top last year. Today's starter Madison Bumgarner has also been a tad worse than usual, although he still is pitching at an All-Star level. It's just that he hasn't had those dominating performances that we've been accustomed to seeing. His walk rate is up considerably and it could be that the heavy workloads of years past are catching up with him. The San Diego Padres aren't exactly tearing it up at 17-22, but they are playing hard and have bounced back after a really slow start to the season. I like what I've seen from starter Colin Rea so far in 2016. He came close to a no-hitter a couple of starts ago and seems to be building confidence from start-to-start. He still needs to get a lot better with his control, but his stuff is good enough to stay in the rotation for a long time. This line is just too high, so we'll take the Padres as a big home underdog here. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-17-16 | Cubs -182 v. Brewers | 2-4 | Loss | -182 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #907 Chicago Cubs over Milwaukee Brewers (8:10pm EST) It's tough to find value on a team that gets the attention that the Chicago Cubs have gotten this season, but they've still lined the pockets of their backers more so than any other team in baseball so far. Tonight we see another opportunity to put some money behind the Cubs. Kyle Hendricks gets the ball for the Cubbies and he might be one of the most undervalued starting pitchers in baseball. He's the #5 guy in the rotation, but he's quickly turning into a frontline starter. Hendricks comes in with a 3.03 ERA in six starts and his peripheral numbers say that he's been even better. Hendricks has tremendous control and walks just 1.8 batters per nine innings while inducing groundballs at the astronomical rate of 62%. That should help him tonight in Milwaukee, where the ball can carry if you don't keep it down. The Brewers are in the midst of a rebuild and don't have their eyes very focused on 2016. They are 16-22 on the season and it's probably only going to get worse once they start looking to move Ryan Braun and Jonathan Lucroy. Chase Anderson makes his eighth start for the Brew Crew today and it hasn't been pretty for him thus far. Anderson sports a hefty 6.11 ERA and has already allowed nine home runs in just 35.1 innings of work. He's seemingly gotten worse as the season as wore on, so he could be dealing with an undisclosed injury or a mechanical issue. That's not good news as he faces the National League's best offense in the Cubs today. Chicago can beat you in so many ways at the plate, as they have excellent plate discipline, great baserunning and lots of power. Take the Cubs behind the underrated Hendricks today. |
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05-14-16 | Tigers v. Orioles -128 | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 17 h 20 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #974 Baltimore Orioles (-130) over Detroit Tigers (7:05pm EST)Â The Detroit Tigers are reeling right now and the betting markets have been a little slow in reacting. The Tigers are just 1-10 over their last 11 contests and their offense is mostly to blame. Coming into the season, Detroit's lineup was being talked about in the same discussion with the Blue Jays and Cubs. They added Justin Upton to insert around the likes of Miguel Cabrera, JD Martinez and Victor Martinez to name a few. But things aren't clicking and part of the problem is that most of these guys are past their prime. They were all great hitters but they aren't the same. Baltimore starter Mike Wright will get the chance to face the Tigers on Saturday in his sixth start of the season. He comes in with a 5.83 ERA in 29.1 innings, but his peripheral numbers indicate he's been a bit unlucky. Wright has an inflated .352 BABIP, a low 65% strand rate, and has a respectable K-BB ratio. As a result, there's little doubt his ERA will improve. The Tigers counter with the struggling Anibal Sanchez today. The 32-year old veteran is having his second consecutive season with a 5.89 ERA that is fully earned. Sanchez is walking 5.4 batters per nine innings and hasn't been able to locate his pitches in any of his starts. His confidence appears shaken and it could have something to do with a shoulder issue he had in the spring. Whatever the case, the opportunistic Orioles offense should take advantage. They have lots of left-handed power, and that should suit them well in Camden Yards against a righty. Take the O's to get the victory today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-13-16 | Cardinals v. Dodgers -108 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 21 h 52 m | Show | |
914 Los Angeles Dodgers (-110) over St. Louis Cardinals (10:10pm EST)Â The Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-12-16 | Giants v. Diamondbacks -103 | 4-2 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #956 Arizona Diamondbacks over San Francisco Giants (9:40pm EST) Zack Greinke had a tough time adjusting to his new team in April, but he's starting to figure it out. Over his last two starts, Greinke has looked like his old self with just two earned runs allowed in each. Today he'll face a Giants lineup that he has had good success against in his career. Not a single Giants regular has a career OPS over .759 against Greinke. Johnny Cueto gets the ball for the Giants. He's been pitching well for his new team with a 4-1 record and 3.02 ERA in seven starts. Both of these teams are a bit banged up at the moment. Outfielders A.J. Pollock and David Peralta are out for Arizona. San Francisco has two key bullpen arms on the shelf as well as Angel Pagan. With two aces dueling it out, this game could come down to the bullpens. Normally I'd give the Giants an edge there, but with the injuries and ineffectiveness they've had I have to give the check mark to Arizona there. Take the Diamondbacks to get the win at home today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-11-16 | Phillies +104 v. Braves | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #905 Philadelphia Phillies over Atlanta Braves (7:10pm EST) For some reason the linesmakers still have the Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves on nearly equal footing despite what we've seen in the first month of the season. The Phils are off to a great start at 19-14 and would qualify for the postseason if the season ended today. And with the way their starting rotation has been throwing, I think they can be somewhat competitive all season long. The Braves, on the other hand, are just 7-24 to start the 2016 campaign. They are clearly in the early phases of a rebuild that looks like is going to take quite some time. Today's pitching matchup is Jerad Eickhoff versus Jhoulys Chacin - two pitchers that are off to pretty strong starts to the season. However, we've seen Chacin long enough to know that he probably isn't going to continue striking out over a batter per inning. Eickhoff, though, is young and might be ahead of schedule as far as being successful in the major leagues. He's was one of the key pieces in the trade of Cole Hamels to Texas last year. This line is just too low, so we are all over the Phils here. |
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05-11-16 | Royals v. Yankees -144 | 7-3 | Loss | -144 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #922 New York Yankees over Kansas City Royals (7:05pm EST) The New York Yankees have taken care of business in the first two games of this series and there's no reason to believe they won't do it again tonight. The Royals dipped below the .500 mark for the first time in three years the other day and they don't seem to be as focused as usual. It could be the dreaded World Series hangover that has plagued champions for years. But I think it has more to do with their starting rotation just not showing up this season so far. The Royals starting pitchers have a 4.57 ERA this season and none of the five seems to be confident right now. That includes today's starter Yordano Ventura, who could be the biggest mess of them all. The young flamethrower is coming off of back-to-back horrendous outings in which he went four innings and allowed five earned runs in each. The problem has been his control, as Ventura has issued 11 walks over those two starts. The Yankees offense hasn't been good so far in 2016, but they do have some patient hitters that can take advantage of the struggling Ventura. They've also woken up in this series, with a total of 16 runs in the first two contests versus the Royals. Michael Pineda hasn't been sharp for the Yanks either, but his peripheral numbers point to some improvement on the horizon. Pineda is also coming off of his best start of the season against the Red Sox. Play the Yankees at home today. |
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05-11-16 | Blue Jays +114 v. Giants | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 36 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #925 Toronto Blue Jays over San Francisco Giants (3:45pm EST) It's still a little bit early to make confident assessments, but both the Toronto Blue Jays and San Francisco Giants are off to slow starts. The Jays dominating lineup from last year isn't hitting like they should be, but their pitching staff has exceeded expectations. There's no doubt that the lineup will eventually hit, and when that happens, this team will be scary once again. For the Giants, it's been a myriad of problems including a terrible back end of the rotation, a lack of power in the lineup and some really bad defense. The defense has been the most troubling, as they are dead last in defensive efficiency and have been particularly bad in the outfield. Those types of problems are hard to fix as they have a set lineup of veterans that isn't going to change much going forward. Madison Bumgarner gets the ball for the Giants today and he's been solid but not quite as good as he usually is. The Jays counter with their ace Marcus Stroman. The young right-hander has pitched well this season in some tough hitter's parks, and I think he is going to be one of the better pitchers in the AL when it's all said and done. I have more faith in Toronto turning things around and see some value with them today at this price. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-10-16 | Mets v. Dodgers +105 | 2-3 | Win | 105 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #962 Los Angeles Dodgers over New York Mets (10:10pm EST) Jacob deGrom comes into today's start at 3-1 with a 1.99 ERA, but there's cause for alarm. His strikeouts are way down from 9.7 per nine innings to just 6.3 because of a sizable dip in his velocity. DeGrom has even admitted that he's still tinkering with his mechanics and trying to get back to last year's form. It could have something to do with the time he missed for an injury and a personal issue earlier this season. But until he figures it out, deGrom is a bit of an overvalued commodity in the market place. The Dodgers send left-hander Alex Wood to the hill. He's been struggling as well with a 5.14 ERA on the season, but I like what I saw in his last two outings. Wood has a brilliant 16-1 K-BB ratio in his last two starts and seems to have figured things out. The Dodgers and the Mets have both been struggling a bit to plate runs this year, but I have a lot more confidence in the Los Angeles because of their balanced lineup. I'm not sure why the Mets are insistent on putting David Wright in the #2 or #3 hole, but he needs to bat lower in the lineup at this point in his career. Take the Dodgers at home today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-09-16 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies -142 | Top | 10-5 | Loss | -142 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #908 Colorado Rockies over Arizona Diamondbacks (8:40pm EST) Every MLB team has played at least 30 games so far and now is about the time that we can start to get a decent gauge on what each team has going for it. One team that has caught my eye so far is the Colorado Rockies. They're only 15-16 overall, but the Rockies are playing much better baseball than they have the last couple of seasons. One of the main reasons is the improvement in their pitching staff. Today's starter Tyler Chatwood is one of a few Rockies pitchers who have made some nice strides in 2016. He comes in with an excellent 2.15 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in six starts. Chatwood didn't allow a single run over his last two outings, including an eight-inning masterpiece last time out versus the Padres. He allowed just three hits and a walk while striking out seven. Chatwood's game also fits well into Coors Field, as he likes to keep the ball down in the zone. His groundball rate is current at a very nice 52% on the season. He'll face an Arizona lineup that has been struggling a bit without their spark plug in A.J. Pollock. The D-Backs did just sweep the Braves after dropping six straight, but Atlanta is the worst team in the sport right now. Archie Bradley will toe the rubber for Arizona, and he looked horrendous in his only outing of the season on April 18th against the Giants. Bradley couldn't make it through the 5th inning, and walked four batters while striking out just two in allowing five earned runs. He'll have his hands full against a Rockies lineup that is even more dangerous this season with the red hot rookie Trevor Story. The 23-year old shortstop is second in the NL in home runs, behind only teammate Nolan Arenado. The Rockies as a team are third in the NL in runs scored. Colorado also one of the better home field advantages in baseball. They're off to a slow start (4-8) in Coors Field this season, but it's early on. Take the Rockies to earn the victory today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-08-16 | Rays +116 v. Angels | 3-1 | Win | 116 | 2 h 58 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #975 Tampa Bay Rays (+115) over Los Angeles Angels (3:35pm EST) The Tampa Bay Rays once again are a little under the radar this season. They've been around the .500 mark all season, but I think they're primed for a big run at some point. The Rays have the most talented pitching staff in the American League and there's not a particularly close second. Today they send Matt Andriese to the hill, who they brought up from the minors for this spot start. Andriese is a guy that could be in a lot of other teams' rotations right now. It just happens to be the Rays don't have a long-term spot for him. Andriese's minor league numbers aren't super flashy, but he has sneak good stuff and his mental game is ahead of the curve. He'll face an Angel's lineup that is really hurting without anyone to protect Mike Trout. They send struggling Nick Tropeano to the hill in this one, who is walking 5.9 batters per nine. Yes he has a nice 3.42 ERA, but regression is in order when your control is that bad. Take the Rays to get the job done here today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-07-16 | Phillies +110 v. Marlins | Top | 4-3 | Win | 110 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #909 Philadelphia Phillies over Miami Marlins (7:10pm EST) No one expected much from the Philadelphia Phillies this season. They are in the midst of a challenging rebuilding effort which has the eyes on the future of the franchise. So after coming out of the gates fast, many have dismissed the hot start by the Phils. However, I think they have some staying power given the nice core they've developed and could be well ahead of schedule. Odubel Herrera and Maikel Franco don't get much national attention, but they certain to be future All-Stars in this game. I also really like their starting rotation overall. Aaron Nola, Vincent Velasquez and Jerad Eickhoff all have high ceilings and should anchor the staff for years to come. Today's starter Jeremy Hellickson is the elder statesmen at age 29. He doesn't have the stuff the other guys at the top have, but he keeps the team in the game and doesn't make many bad mistakes. It's also extremely encouraging to see his strikeout rate up at 9.5 per nine innings right now - a huge increase from last year's 7.5 rate. He'll face a Marlins lineup that is without their energy guy in speedster Dee Gordon. Without a good table-setter at the top, guys like Giancarlo Stanton just aren't as dangerous. Hellickson should be plenty of run support today as the Marlins are trotting out Tom Koehler to the mound in today's matchup. Koehler has been atrocious in five starts this season, amassing a 7.25 ERA and 1.93 WHIP in 22.1 innings of work. He's struggled with his command and has pitched his worst with runners on base. The Phils don't have a particularly balanced lineup, but even they should be able to get to Koehler today. Take Philadelphia as our Game of the Week selection. |
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