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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-05-16 | Mariners +100 v. Astros | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #919 Seattle Mariners over Houston Astros (8:10pm EST) The Astros are struggling out of the gate with a 10-18 mark thru 28 games. They'll eventually figure out as they're just too talented to struggle long-term. But right now, they aren't producing much offense and their pitching staff has been horrendous. That pitching mess has forced Houston to take Chris Devenski from the bullpen and place him into the rotation. It was a move that the Astros didn't anticipate making this early, so I question whether Devenski is really ready for this role. He hasn't put up great numbers in the minors and he still has a lot to learn at the big league level. The Mariners are a nice early season surprise and I think they're here to stay. New GM Jerry Dipoto turned over half of the roster in the offseason and his moves are paying off already. He's stressed on-base percentage and defense - two areas where you can sometimes find undervalued players. These new guys have jelled well together early on and I think Seattle has a legitimate chance to win the AL West in 2016. Wade Miley gets the ball for them today versus the Astros. Miley has a bulky 5.06 ERA, but his peripheral numbers are much better. He's also coming off of a complete game shutout last time out versus the Royals. It was his most impressive outing in a couple of years, so that should be a nice confidence booster for Miley. Take Seattle in this one. |
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05-05-16 | Brewers v. Reds -106 | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #906 Cincinnati Reds over Milwaukee Brewers (7:10pm EST) Two awful starting pitchers will take the mound in today's game between the Brewers and Reds. Chase Anderson and Alfredo Simon are struggling mightily and are two of the most unreliable guys in the NL at the moment. If we call that a virtual wash, I think the Reds are the better team otherwise. Despite some early season struggles, they should score more runs than the Brewers with a nice middle of the order of Phillips, Votto and Bruce. The Reds also play good solid defense, something that isn't always reflected in the betting lines. Both bullpens are a mess, but long-term I trust the pieces that the Reds bring to the table. These are two rebuilding teams, but the Reds roster gives them a better shot in 2016. Take Cincinnati today. |
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05-04-16 | Rockies -112 v. Padres | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 4 h 58 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #957 Colorado Rockies over San Diego Padres (3:40pm EST) Big pitching edge on the mound this afternoon for the Colorado Rockies in their series finale with the San Diego Padres. Tyler Chatwood has made some huge strides this season after a couple of lackluster years in Colorado. He comes in with a 2.73 ERA and has shown excellent command of his pitches. His last start in Arizona against a potent D-backs offense was particularly impressive. Chatwood didn't allow a run in 6.1 innings of work and was able to earn the win. On the other side is youngster Cesar Vargas for the Padres. The 24-year old right-hander was in the Yankees system and put together some decent years in the minors. However, I'm not sure he's ready for the big leagues just yet. He's struggling with his control and that could be the undoing for Vargas. The Rockies have an improved lineup and I think they have a real shot at contending for a playoff spot this season. They're much better than the rebuilding Padres and we'll gladly lay this small price. Take the Rockies today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-03-16 | Dodgers v. Rays -135 | 10-5 | Loss | -135 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #926 Tampa Bay Rays over Los Angeles Dodgers (7:10pm EST) He hasn't received much attention, but Matt Moore has been one of the better stories early on in the 2016 campaign. The talented left-hander was coming off of a pair of injury-riddled seasons that saw him make a total of just 14 big league starts. So far this season, Moore has bounced back nicely with a 3.66 ERA and 1.03 WHIP to go along with a wonderful 35-7 K-BB ratio. Even more impressive is the fact that Moore has faced several tough offenses in his five starts and hasn't allowed any big innings. The Rays need to pick up their offense a little bit, but they have more firepower in the lineup this year to do that. Corey Dickerson has provided some nice pop and there are four players who already have hit at least four home runs. The Dodgers have lost six of seven and have really struggled to plate runs. They've scored just 11 times in those seven games and their only win was 1-0 win behind Clayton Kershaw. With the way Moore is throwing, it's hard to imagine the Dodgers getting back on track tonight. Take the Rays to get the win at home tonight. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-02-16 | Nationals v. Royals -115 | 2-0 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #970 Kansas City Royals over Washington Nationals (8:15pm EST) Interesting matchup on Monday night as the Kansas City Royals host the Washington Nationals in the first of three games. These teams don't meet often given that they play in opposite leagues. In fact, the last time the Nats visited Kansas City was 2013. It's usually an advantage for the home team when they host an opponent that isn't too familiar with their park and the surroundings. The AL has also dominated the NL in recent years, as the NL teams usually don't have an adequate hitter to step into the designated hitter role. The Nationals send left-hander Gio Gonzalez to the mound for his fifth start of the season. He comes in with a stellar 1.42 ERA, but that's been aided by a fortunate .243 BABIP and a higher than normal strand rate. One of Gonzalez's strengths is his propensity to avoid the home run ball. He's had one of the lowest home run rates in the majors over the last three years. However, given that Kaufman Stadium is a big park and the Royals' game doesn't center around power, that's a wasted advantage for Gonzalez tonight. Edinson Volquez goes for the Royals tonight as he looks to shake of a rough outing last time out. He gave up eight earned runs in his last start in Anaheim, but his season numbers are still very solid. With one of the best defenses behind him and a lights out bullpen, I think Volquez and the Royals will be victorious today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-02-16 | Braves v. Mets -200 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
2-unit Play Take #956 New York Mets over Atlanta Braves (7:10pm EST) After a slow start to the 2016 campaign, the New York Mets have found their groove with a 13-3 mark over their last 16 games. Their pitching staff is doing exactly what everyone expected, but it's their lineup that has some people turning their heads. The Mets' lineup has been absolutely mashing of late, led by Michael Conforto. The 23-year old outfielder has started coming into his own with a .342 average to go along with four home runs and 18 RBIs. The scouts said he could hit, but nobody thought it would come this fast and be this good. He's been hitting in the three-hole ahead of Yoenis Cespedes and that changes the entire dynamic of their lineup. Today they face Mike Foltynewicz and the Braves to open the series. Foltynewicz was just brought up from the minors to fill a spot in the rotation. He had solid numbers in his Triple-A outings, but his last two seasons in the big leagues have been hideous. The 24-year old has a 5.64 career ERA and really struggled with keeping the ball down and his control. With the way the Mets are hitting, it could be a very short outing for the Foltynewicz today. Take the Mets to get the job done. |
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05-01-16 | Nationals v. Cardinals -107 | 6-1 | Loss | -107 | 3 h 10 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #908 St. Louis Cardinals over Washington Nationals (2:15pm EST) Max Scherzer is struggling to find the strike zone so far in 2016. He comes into today's game with an unimpressive 4.35 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in five starts. Scherzer is striking out only 8.7 batters per nine innings, down from 10.9 last season. His walk rate sits and 3.5 versus only 1.3 last year. Something is not right, whether it's mechanics or an undisclosed injury. But things could get ugly today for Scherzer as he faces the highest scoring team in the league right now - the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cards have been scoring runs in bunches, but surprisingly their pitching has let them down so far this season. Today's starter Carlos Martinez certainly hasn't let anyone down, as he enters today's game 4-0 with a 1.93 ERA. The Nats lineup has been productive as well, but they still need more protection for Bryce Harper to score consistently. I like Cardinals to win today to avoid the sweep. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-30-16 | White Sox v. Orioles -153 | 8-7 | Loss | -153 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #972 Baltimore Orioles over Chicago White Sox (7:05pm EST) The Chicago White Sox are off to a nice start at 16-8 on the season, but it's way too early to consider this team a contender. The offense still has plenty of holes and ranks 11th in the American League in OPS (9th in runs scored). The pitching has carried this team thus far, but there are several guys that just can't sustain their early season success. One of those guys is today's starter Mat Latos. The White Sox took a chance on him in the offseason and it's paying dividends so far. Latos is 4-0 with a miniscule 0.74 ERA and 0.82 WHIP. However, he's been aided by a ridiculously low .167 BABIP and 0.37 HR rate per nine innings. His K-BB ratio is an unimpressive 13-7 in 24.1 innings of work. Clearly regression is coming for Latos, and in a big way. He'll go up against a dangerous Orioles lineup that has been swinging the bats extremely well. They're tops in the league in OPS and has a league-leading 31 home runs in 2016. Their lineup is built perfectly for Camden Yards, where their thumpers can take advantage of the friendly dimensions. Baltimore is an impressive 9-1 at home so far this season. Kevin Gausman will toe the rubber for the O's today and he looked good in his first start back from the disabled list. By the end of the season, I think Gausman will be the ace of this team. I like the Orioles to get the job done here today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-29-16 | Tigers v. Twins -110 | 9-2 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
5-unit Play Take #924 Minnesota Twins over Detroit Tigers (8:10pm EST) It's been a slow start for the Minnesota Twins, but it's way too early to start downgrading teams significantly after a small sample. The Twins have a dynamic young lineup that is going to score some runs. They've been striking out way too much in the early going, but they get a pitcher they can handle today. Tigers' right-hander Michael Fulmer will make his major league debut in this one. He's put up solid minor league numbers, but the projections on him are a bit mixed. He's had trouble with command and his fastball isn't overpowering. In his three Triple-A starts this season, Fulmer has a mediocre 4.11 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. Minnesota sends right-hander Phil Hughes to the hill for his fifth start of the year. So far in the early going Hughes looks closer to the pitcher he was two years ago than last year. He's keeping the ball down and avoiding the home run ball that has plagued him at time throughout his career. That will be important today versus the Tigers, who bring plenty of thump in their lineup. The good news for the Twins is that Target Field is not an easy park to hit home runs and it looks like the wind will be blowing in for today's contest. The Twins find a way to get job today in our Game of the Week. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-28-16 | Phillies +144 v. Nationals | 3-0 | Win | 144 | 5 h 12 m | Show | |
2-unit Play Take #955 Philadelphia Phillies over Washington Nationals (4:05pm EST) One of the surprise teams of the 2016 baseball season is the Philadelphia Phillies. They are 11-10 and have several youngsters ahead of schedule in their development plans. One of those guys is today's starting pitcher Aaron Nola. The 22-year old right-hander has posted some monstrous peripheral stats so far this season, averaging 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings against only 1.7 walks. He's struggled a bit with runners on base to bloat his ERA, but make no mistake - Nola is developing into a legitimate ace in this league. Today he gets the Washington Nationals, who are off to a 14-6 start thru 20 games. However, the Nats have played the easiest schedule in baseball thus far. All 20 games have been against teams that are likely to lose 90+ games this season, so we still really don't know how good they are. Tanner Roark gets the ball for them today. He's pitched well for the Nats so far, but I'm not a huge of his stuff and think he's going to be inconsistent this season. The value is with the Phils here today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-27-16 | Marlins +174 v. Dodgers | 2-0 | Win | 174 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #913 Miami Marlins over Los Angeles Dodgers (10:10pm EST) The Miami Marlins are off to a slow start and they decided to shake things up by bringing up starting pitcher Justin Nicolino to take the spot of Jarred Cosart in the rotation. Cosart really labored in his first three starts with a 7.98 ERA and 15 walks in just 14.2 innings of work. Nicolino gets the nod now and many think he has the stuff to be a very good middle-of-the-rotation starter for a long time. He made 12 starts with the big club last season and posted a sturdy 4.01 ERA and did a nice job of pitching to contact in a big park. Today he gets a Dodgers lineup that hasn't quite clicked yet offensively. Los Angeles is ninth in the NL in OPS and has hit just 15 home runs in their first 20 games. Scott Kazmir toes the rubber for the Dodgers and he's really been struggling with his stuff in the early going. Kazmir owns a 6.63 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in his four starts. He's been nursing a thumb injury that is clearly affecting his mechanics, so it's surprising the Dodgers haven't let him skip a turn in the rotation yet. Meanwhile we'll look to take advantage with a play on Miami tonight. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-26-16 | Orioles v. Rays -121 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
3 Unit Play. Take #970 Tampa Bay Rays -125 over Baltimore Orioles (7:10 PM, Tuesday, April 26) The Tampa Bay Rays will look to extend their win streak to three games when they take on the Baltimore Orioles at Tropicana Field in Tampa, FL on Tuesday night. Jake Odorizzi (0-1, 3.97 ERA, 1.28 WHIP) will get the start for the Rays and he will be opposed by Ubaldo Jimenez (1-1, 3.71 ERA, 1.59 WHIP), who is scheduled to get the call on the hill for the Orioles. The Rays have posted a 5-1 record in their last six home games where they faced a team with a losing record on the road and they have gone an excellent 4-1 in Odorizzi's last five home starts. The Orioles, on the other hand, have struggled a bit in the spot they are in here tonight as they have gone just 2-6 in their last eight games after scoring two runs or less in their previous contest and they have lost their last six games on the road where they faced a team with a losing record. Throw in the fact that the Rays have gone an excellent 8-2 when their opponent scored two runs or less in their last game and we'll lay the small price with them here to get the win over Baltimore on Tuesday night. |
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04-25-16 | Astros +141 v. Mariners | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #924 Seattle Mariners over Houston Astros (10:10pm EST) We rode the Seattle Mariners yesterday to an easy 9-4 winner and we'll look to turn the trick again on Monday. Yesterday we mentioned how much we like the new regime under GM Jerry Dipoto, as he overhauled the roster to give the team a much better chance at succeeding. So far the M's are off to just a 9-9 start, but that's not bad considering all of the new faces they had to bring together in such a short period of time. Tonight the talented Taijuan Walker gets the ball for Seattle. His stuff is amongst the best in the league and he's starting to figure out the mental side, which is scary for opposing hitters. Walker comes in with a 1.50 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in first three starts of the season - all against teams that are over the .500 mark right now. He has only walked two batters over his 18 innings of work and his groundball rate has improved substantially from 39% to 56%. The Houston Astros are off to a terrible 6-13 this season and absolutely nothing has gone right. Last night they lost 7-5 to the Red Sox and had to jump on a plane to head all the way up to Seattle. After a discouraging week, the last thing the Stros needed was another demoralizing loss. It's hard to gauge exactly where the collective heads of this team are at right now, but it hasn't been pretty on the field so far. Houston goes with Doug Fister today as they look to turn things around. Fister owns an ugly 5.94 ERA in his first three outings and is only striking out 4.9 batters per nine innings. With the Astros struggling, we'll back the M's behind Walker's hot start. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-25-16 | Pirates v. Rockies -124 | 6-1 | Loss | -124 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #904 Colorado Rockies over Pittsburgh Pirates (8:40pm EST) This handicap is about as straight-forward as it gets. Pittsburgh Pirates' starter Jeff Locke just doesn't deserve another start in a Pirates uniform, or any other uniform for that matter. If you're making a list of the worst starting pitchers in baseball, he's certainly in the discussion. Locke comes in with a 7.24 ERA and a hideous 2.63 WHIP over his first three starts. Even more troubling is the fact that those three outings were against the Padres, Brewers and Reds. Today Locke goes into Coors Field, where it's hard to imagine him having any kind of success. In fact, I'd be shocked if he makes it past the fourth inning. Colorado is off to a nice start and today's starter Chad Bettis is one of the hidden gems that isn't getting any attention in the early going. Bettis is 2-0 with a 3.33 ERA and has a pitching style that actually can be effective in Coors. No reason to analyze this game any further. The price is cheap on the Rockies today at home. |
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04-24-16 | Mariners +104 v. Angels | 9-4 | Win | 104 | 2 h 4 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #975 Seattle Mariners (+110) over Los Angeles Angels (3:35pm EST) The Seattle Mariners hired GM Jerry Dipoto in the offseason and he came in and overhauled about half of the roster after coming aboard. That sounds drastic, but this Mariners team really needed a fresh start and I really like most of the moves that Dipoto made. One of his better moves was firing manager Lloyd McClendon and bringing on Scott Servais to manage this team. Servais was a former catcher in the big leagues, and they tend to do a very good job as managers. Another move was bringing in starting pitcher Wade Miley, who goes today for the M's. Miley was a great buy-low type of acquisition after he struggled in Boston last year. Some players don't perform as well in a big media market, so I think Miley will fit right in with a low-key Seattle club. He comes in with an ugly 8.04 ERA, but Miley's peripheral numbers tell a much better story. He's striking out 9.2 batters per innings, while walking just 2.3 batters. The reason his ERA is so high is due to an unheard of .480 BABIP so far in 2016. That will certainly regress and we should see Miley's ERA drop down below the 4.00 mark eventually. Today he gets an Angels team that is in dire need of someone to step up in their lineup outside of Mike Trout and Albert Pujols. The Halos are dead last in runs in the American League, averaging less than 3.0 runs per contest at the moment. That's certainly not going to cut it, and I think Miley gets back on track against them today. Take Seattle. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-23-16 | Pirates +106 v. Diamondbacks | 1-7 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #909 Pittsburgh Pirates over Arizona Diamondbacks (8:10pm EST) We rode the Pittsburgh Pirates to a victory yesterday (our 4th straight) and today we'll go back to the well with the Buccos once again. One of the reasons yesterday led to a play was the development of Jon Niese under the tutelage of pitching coach Ray Searage. Well today we have another fine example in right-hander Juan Nicasio. Many thought Nicasio was done after fighting through injuries and ineffectiveness for a couple of years. But the Pirates took him in during the offseason and he had one of the best springs of any pitcher in the majors. He hasn't quite sparkled yet in the regular season, but there are signs that it's coming. Nicasio is striking out 10.2 batters per nine innings and is now pitching in front of an elite defense. The team isn't asking much of him. Just go five or six innings and keep the team in the game. Then turn it over to one of the best bullpens in the league and the Pirates will take their chances. That's been the recipe for Pittsburgh over the last few seasons and it's worked extremely well. Arizona has been playing really good baseball lately, but I'm not sold on Rubby De La Rosa as a starting pitcher. He has really good stuff, but his mental game just isn't there and I think he's better served as a relief pitcher with less to worry about. Take the Pirates to win again today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-22-16 | Pirates +120 v. Diamondbacks | 8-7 | Win | 120 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
5-unit Play Take #959 Pittsburgh Pirates over Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40pm EST) One of the most important guys in the Pirates organization is pitching coach Ray Searage. He's turned around the careers of several pitchers, including guys like Francisco Liriano, Edinson Volquez, A.J. Burnett and J.A. Happ. This year the Pirates acquired a couple of more projects, including today's starter Jon Niese. It's not that Niese was particularly bad over the last few seasons. His contributions were certainly adequate for the Mets. But the Pirates saw more in him, and that's one of the reasons why they parted ways with a solid second baseman in Neil Walker. Niese has looked good in his first three starts with Pittsburgh. He owns a 3.50 ERA and has increased his strikeout rate considerably from the last couple of seasons. Time will tell if Searage can make significant improvements for Niese, but I wouldn't bet against it. Today Niese draws the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Snakes are coming off of an impressive four-game sweep in San Francisco where they outscored the Giants 20-10 overall. Normally you'd look at that as positive momentum going forward, but I think we could see a bit of a letdown as they head back home today. I still think the absence of A.J. Pollock is going to hurt Arizona more than most think. He's the guy that gets the offense going and I don't think Paul Goldschmidt can do it all on his own. Take Pittsburgh as a small underdog in this one. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-22-16 | Dodgers v. Rockies +114 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 114 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #958 Colorado Rockies over Los Angeles Dodgers (8:40pm EST) The Colorado Rockies were picked by many to bring up the rear in the NL West this season. But so far the Rockies have held their own and there's reason to believe they can sustain their success. One of the biggest reasons why is shortstop Trevor Story, who leads the majors with eight home runs after virtually coming out of nowhere. Adding him to the order with Carlos Gonzalez and Nolan Arenado make this lineup one the scariest in the league for opposing pitchers. Left-hander Scott Kazmir will face that lineup today in Coors Field, and the forecast says the wind will be blowing out. Kazmir has struggled mightily in his first three starts with the Dodgers, posting a 6.43 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 14 innings of work. He's given up three home runs already this season, and that's a huge problem that isn't likely to go away in Coors. Colorado sends youngster Jon Gray to the bump in his first outing with the big club this season. Gray started nine games for the team last season and pitched fairly well despite a poor ERA. He struck out nearly a batter an inning and that's important in a spacious park where hits fall in everywhere. The Rockies had the day off yesterday to prepare for this game, which is important for getting some guys rested up. Meanwhile, the Dodgers had to travel in from Atlanta after an extra innings in against the Braves. Colorado finds a way to win today's matchup. Take the Rockies as our April Game of the Month. |
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04-21-16 | Pirates -137 v. Padres | 11-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #909 Pittsburgh Pirates over San Diego Padres (9:10pm EST) The Pittsburgh Pirates need to get back on track and they have the right guy on the mound to turn things around. Gerrit Cole gets the ball today and he's been the consistent force in the Pirates rotation since he was called up a few years ago. He owns a 3.09 career ERA and an impressive 40-22 record to go along with it. Today he faces a Padres lineup that he matches up extremely well with. San Diego just doesn't have any left-handed thumpers in their lineup, so Cole should have his way today. The Pads are averaging just 2.88 runs per game at home this season, and if you exclude Coors Field they are averaging just 2.33 runs overall for the season. Obviously that's not going to get it done. James Shields toes the rubber for them today, but he hasn't been his usual self for over a year. Shields has an ERA of almost 4.00 since coming over the National League, despite throwing in an extreme pitcher's park in Petco. His control has been a major issue as he's walking nearly 50% more batters than he did in the American League. He's 34 years old and clearly his skills have diminished. The Pirates will get to Shields, and if this game is close late, the Buccos have a big advantage in the bullpen. Take Pittsburgh today. |
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04-21-16 | Blue Jays v. Orioles -101 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #920 Baltimore Orioles over Toronto Blue Jays (7:05pm EST) The Baltimore Orioles are 9-4 and leading the AL East in the early going. But most aren't buying into the O's success, and they certainly haven't received much respect in the betting markets. Baltimore is an underdog at home today with arguably their best pitcher on the hill - Chris Tillman. After a tough 2015 campaign, Tillman has seemingly figured out what made him successful in the years prior. He carries a 5.11 ERA thus far in 2016, but that doesn't tell the story. His peripheral numbers are popping nicely, including a career-best 8.0 strikeout rate and a career-low 2.2 walk rate. It's early, but Tillman looks more confident on the mound and his stuff is sharper than it's been in two years. Today he faces a tough Blue Jays lineup, but the good news is that they aren't as potent against right-handers as they versus lefties. Marco Estrada makes his third start of the season for Toronto and he's been solid thus far. He comes in with a 2.77 ERA, but some regression is in order as his underlying numbers just don't support his success. The Orioles lineup doesn't get the pub that the Jays' lineup does, but Baltimore can mash with the best of them. They are second in the AL in runs scored (Toronto is currently fifth), and lead the way with 25 home runs. They love hitting in Camden Yards as this ballpark suits their hitters extremely well. They also have one of the best managers in baseball in Buck Showalter, and a superb bullpen that doesn't give up the lead late. These teams are closer than most people think overall. Take the Orioles as home underdogs today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-20-16 | Tigers v. Royals -105 | 3-2 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #976 Kansas City Royals over Detroit Tigers (7:15pm EST) After going to two straight World Series and winning the championship last year, you'd think that the Kansas City Royals would get some respect. But nope, they didn't. Oddsmakers set the over/under on seasons wins for the Royals at 84 at most spots and it didn't move much after being posted. The Royals have virtually the same roster that they have for the last two years, yet for some reason nobody thinks they can do it again. One change they did make was bringing in Ian Kennedy to help solidify one of their weak spots - the starting rotation. Kennedy is a reliable right-arm that is almost assured of giving Kansas City 200+ innings and keeping the team in the game in most starts. Well he's done better than that so far, with a ridiculous 0.66 ERA and 0.73 WHIP in his first two outings. He's obviously not going to keep that up, but I think Kennedy is going to thrive with a fantastic defense behind him and a spacious ballpark that caters to his flyball tendencies. Today he gets the dangerous Detroit Tigers lineup. There aren't any easy outs to be had, but the good news is that Detroit's lineup is loaded with right-handed batters. Jordan Zimmermann throws for the Tigers and has been brilliant so far with his new team as well. Zimmermann hasn't allowed a single run in his two starts. However, the peripheral numbers aren't that good when you look closely. For instance, Zimmermann has just seven strikeouts in 13 innings of work versus six walks. That kind of ratio isn't going to cut it long-term, especially against a team like the Royals. I like Kansas City at the short price today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-19-16 | Cubs v. Cardinals -118 | 2-1 | Loss | -118 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #910 St. Louis Cardinals over Chicago Cubs (8:15pm EST) Yes the Cubs are rolling and it's tough to go against them, but today presents a situation that we can't pass up. The Cubs lineup is loaded with left-handed batters, so they are going to have their fair share of struggles against southpaws at times this season. And today they face a southpaw that is coming off of a career-best performance. Jaime Garcia just threw a complete game shutout versus the Brewers in which he struck out 13 batters against just one walk. And, oh yeah, he allowed just one hit. That's a dominating performance and his confidence should be at an all-time high. The Cubs counter with Jason Hammel who sports a tremendous 0.75 ERA in two outings in 2016. However, Hammel has gotten himself into quite a bit of trouble in both starts. He's managed to strand 93% of runners, which just isn't close to being sustainable. The advanced metrics point toward an ERA closer to 5.00 than they do to his current ERA. As a result, regression is in order for Hammel. This is a big game for the Cardinals, who don't want to fall too far behind the Cubs this early in the season. I think they get to Hammel and ride a strong performance from Garcia again. Play St. Louis here. |
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04-19-16 | Nationals v. Marlins +133 | 7-0 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #904 Miami Marlins over Washington Nationals (7:10pm EST) One of the best ways to make money betting on baseball in April is to take advantage of some early overreactions. The Washington Nationals are off to a quick 9-3 start to the season and everyone has them labeled as the team to beat in the NL East now. The Marlins have struggled at just 4-7 and there are all kinds of question marks about their roster now. But these teams are much closer in talent than their records indicate and we get some value by backing the home underdog as a result. Adam Conley goes for Miami and he's quietly developing into a fine pitcher. He's pitched just 17 games in his young career but it's easy to see that he has electric stuff that will baffle hitters endlessly. In his last outing against the Mets, Conley pitched six shutout innings to go along with nine strikeouts and just one walk. Now's the time to bet Conley while he is still flying under the radar. He gets a tough test in the Nats today, who will send Stephen Strasburg to the hill. I see some Strasburg in Conley's game, so this will be a great game to take in. Play the Marlins as home underdogs. |
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04-19-16 | A's v. Yankees -163 | 3-2 | Loss | -163 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #918 New York Yankees over Oakland A's (7:05pm EST) Late addition, so not a full-write up. This one basically comes down to a huge pitching edge for the Yankees in this one. Eric Surkamp really shouldn't being making meaningful starts yet for Oakland, yet he's in the rotation due to injuries. Michael Pineda is a proven commodity that I can trust in Yankee Stadium, with a great backend backing him up. This is also a long trek across the United States for the A's to play on the East Coast. Play New York here. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-18-16 | Nationals v. Marlins -155 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #954 Miami Marlins over Washington Nationals (7:10pm EST) The Washington Nationals got off to a red hot 9-1 start to the season, but yesterday they were dealt a crushing 10th inning loss to the lowly Phillies. Nats' closer Jonathan Papelbon yielded two runs in the bottom of the 10th with two outs to blow the lead after Bryce Harper had homered in the top of the inning. It's the kind of loss that could put a halt to their momentum, as they had to immediately job on a plane and head to Miami. But they're not just taking on the Marlins, they are facing their ace Jose Fernandez. The young right-hander has one of the better arms in the game and could be the very best when pitching at home. The Marlins are 23-4 in Fernandez's last 27 home starts, including 12-2 in the last 14 against teams with winning records. He obviously is comfortable in a nice pitcher's park and isn't afraid of who he is going up against. The Nats counter with Tanner Roark, who is back in the rotation after pitching out of the bullpen last year. His stuff hasn't looked very good so far in 2016 despite a 2.45 ERA. His K-BB ratio is a subpar 7-6 in 11 innings of work and he's yielded 13 hits. He's pitched himself out of a few jams, but he can't keep walking that tightrope for much longer. The Marlins have a dangerous lineup and they've yet to really explode in a game at home this season. Today could be that day. We're on the Marlins here. |
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04-18-16 | Mets -177 v. Phillies | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #951 New York Mets over Philadelphia Phillies (7:05pm EST) No pitcher in baseball has come out of the gates stronger than Noah Syndergaard of the Mets. In his first two outings, the hard-throwing right-hander owns a 0.69 ERA and 0.92 WHIP to go along with an amazing 14.5 strikeout rate per nine innings. That's domination. Today Syndergaard will look to do it again in Philadelphia against the Phillies. The Mets offense has started a little bit slow, but they aren't going to need much to support Syndergaard. I actually think two or three runs will be plenty considering the Phils' inept offense. This is a big line to lay this early in the season, but there's still some value as this one should be closer to -200. Take the Mets to get the job done with relative ease. |
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04-17-16 | Tigers v. Astros -124 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 2 h 44 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #922 Houston Astros (-130) over Detroit Tigers (2:10pm EST) We missed yesterday with the Astros, but are going back to them today to make amends. Houston jumped out to a quick 3-0 lead on Justin Verlander last night, but was unable to score the rest of the game. I think they can jump out to a similar type of lead today against Tigers' starter Anibal Sanchez, who is struggling mightily with his control. Sanchez has six walks in just 10.2 innings of work this season against just seven strikeouts. That ratio isn't going to cut it at the big league level. Sanchez faces a tough Astros lineup today in one of the better hitters' parks in Minute Maid. Houston counters with Mike Fiers, who I like to make some big improvements this season. This is his first full season in a Houston uniform and they've done well in the area of developing younger pitchers. Let's take the better team and better pitcher today at a reasonable price. Go Houston! Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-16-16 | Tigers v. Astros -128 | 5-3 | Loss | -128 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #976 Houston Astros over Detroit Tigers (7:10pm EST) There was some chatter before the 2016 that Justin Verlander was back. He finished the 2015 season reasonably strong and had a decent spring, having many believe that we'd see a dominant hurler once again. But I didn't buy it and his first two starts of the campaign have been a disaster. Verlander owns a brutal 8.71 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in his two outings against mediocre offenses (Pittsburgh and Miami). He's still missing his spots frequently and leaving far too many hittable balls in the zone. He has four walks in 10.1 innings of work against just seven strikeouts. Needless to say, he's got a long way to go before we can start talking about the old Verlander again. Today he'll get a tough test in the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park. The Astros have a ton of power and that serves them well considering the ball travels well in their home park. Verlander is a flyball pitcher and has given up his fair share of long balls the last few years. Houston counters with Collin McHugh, who bounced back in his last start after a nightmare debut. The Tigers have a dangerous lineup, but they have a ton of right-handed bats in their lineup. That should the right-hander McHugh from a matchup standpoint. The Astros are the better team overall, have a better pitcher on the mound, and are at home. This line should be at least 15-20 cents higher, so we're all over Houston in this one. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-15-16 | Diamondbacks -137 v. Padres | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
5-unit Play Take #913 Arizona Diamondbacks (-135) over San Diego Padres (10:40pm EST) It's been a rough start to the season for Zack Greinke and the Diamondbacks. The team is just 3-7 and Greinke comes in with a robust 9.90 ERA. I think the D-backs were a bit overrated coming into the season with all of their offseason moves, but right now might be a good time to buy low on this team. Paul Goldschmidt is hitting just .242 and they've had problems scoring runs consistently, but this was the highest scoring team in the National League last season outside of Colorado. They will come around. We also know that Greinke's ERA is going to be about one-third of where it currently sits. He's one of the 10 best pitchers in baseball and his excellent track record speaks for itself. Greinke faces the Padres today in San Diego, which is a great place to get back on track. The Pads' offense has been atrocious outside of Colorado this season and they looked absolutely lost at the plate yesterday against Phillies starter Vincent Velasquez. The young right-hander struck out 16 Padres batters in a complete game shutout. He allowed just three hits all day and didn't walk a single batter. Hitting performances that bad can sometimes carry over into the next game and that's good news for Greinke. I like Arizona in an easy one here today. |
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04-15-16 | Royals v. A's -112 | 4-2 | Loss | -112 | 7 h 0 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #928 Oakland A's (-115) over Kansas City Royals (10:05pm EST) Several years back the Oakland A's were criticized for signing Scott Kazmir coming off a series of injuries that kept him away for baseball for quite some time. It turned out to be a masterful move by GM Billy Beane as Kazmir was one of the best left-handers in the league in Oakland. This past offseason, the A's came under fire once again for signing Rich Hill under similar circumstances. They saw Hill throw the ball great last September and decided it was worth the risk to bring him in for a 1-year, $6 million deal. Most teams weren't willing to take a chance on Hill based on his track record, but I think we could have another Kazmir here. Hill has looked impressive in his first two outings, posting a 3.12 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. In his last start versus the Mariners, Hill struck out 10 batters in just six innings of work while walking just one. Today he goes up against a Royals team that has a tough lineup, but Hill has shown that he can be a strikeout pitcher or someone who pitches to contact. Kansas City wins a lot of games with its amazing bullpen, but Oakland is one of the few teams that come close to matching what they have in the late innings. Sean Dolittle, Ryan Madson (who was with the Royals last year), Liam Hendriks and John Axford are quite a quartet that should help the A's win plenty of games late. The A's aren't being valued very highly based on an unlucky 2015 campaign, so there is value with Oakland here. Play the A's. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-13-16 | Orioles +121 v. Red Sox | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 40 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #921 Baltimore Orioles over Boston Red Sox (7:10pm EST) The Baltimore Orioles are 7-0 to start the season and still don't seem to be getting any respect. They're underdogs today with a much better pitcher on the mound. Yes it's Red Sox, who have picked by many to win this division, but they're going to have to prove it to me before I anoint them. I still think Boston has clubhouse issues with guys like Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez around, and that could hold them back from being a playoff team. The Orioles, on the other hand, have had a great chemistry for years under manager Buck Showalter. They're probably the scrappiest team in baseball, and never seem to get credit for what they do. Ubaldo Jimenez will get the ball for the O's today and he was brilliant in his last outing versus the Twins. Ubaldo went seven strong innings while allowing just one earned run, to go along with nine strikeouts and no walks. When he's on, he's amongst the best in the game and this could be the beginning of a nice run for him. Boston counters with the struggling Joe Kelly. No one questions Kelly's stuff on the mound, but he's never been able to put it all together from the mental side. He posted a hefty 4.82 ERA last season in a Red Sox uniform and was promptly bombed in his first start of the 2016 season. The O's lineup is one of the most dangerous in the league and they'll be licking their chops tonight versus Kelly. Take Baltimore as a small underdog. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-12-16 | Indians v. Rays +117 | 1-5 | Win | 117 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #964 Tampa Bay Rays (+120)Â over Cleveland Indians (7:10pm EST)Â Once upon a time Matt Moore was a #1 prospect that had ace written all over him. Then injuries and some control issues got in the way, and Moore is now thought of more as a bust than anything else. However, Moore is still only 26 years old and starting pitchers usually don't peak until they have logged quite a few innings. Moore is healthy now and looked absolutely fantastic in the spring. His biggest issue has always been his high walk rate, but during Spring Training Moore only walked a total of three batters in 13.1 innings of work. He had an exceptional 3.38 ERA and 0.90 WHIP, and his confidence seemed to be at an all-time high. He then followed that up with a solid debut against a very tough Blue Jays lineup last week. He went just five innings, but only walked one batter and allowed five hits and three runs. He'll have a much easier time of today against an Indians lineup missing one of their top threats in Michael Brantley. The Indians have logged just four games so far due to rain-outs on their schedule. Corey Kluber gets the ball today and he did not look very good in his season debut last week versus the Red Sox. He'll likely bounce back today, but he started last season a bit slow as well. The Rays' lineup is much improved with the additions of Corey Dickerson, Logan Morrison, Brad Miller and Steve Pearce. Dickerson has already homered three teams and seems like a legitimate cleanup hitter that the team has really missed for quite some time. The Rays are a decent-prized home underdog today and I think there's value there. Play Tampa Bay. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-11-16 | Royals v. Astros -130 | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
5-unit Play Take #916 Houston Astros over Kansas City Royals (8:10pm EST) The Houston Astros were just two innings away from going to the ALCS last season and had a four run lead to boot. But the Kansas City Royals didn't give up and were able to execute one of their patented comeback wins to knock off the Stros. The Houston players have had a bad taste in their mouths for the entire offseason, and today they'll look to exact some revenge. Collin McHugh takes the ball for the Astros as he looks to rebound from a miserable outing last time out versus the Yankees. He gave up six runs while recording just one out before being pulled in Yankee Stadium. McHugh should be much more comfortable in Houston for the team's home opener today. He'll face the Kansas City Royals in game where the Astros match up really well. The Royals thrive in big stadiums where their speed and defense can take center stage. Kaufman Stadium is the perfect place for them. But when they go on the road, that's not always the case. Minute Maid Park is a much smaller park built for hitters - power hitters to be exact. And wisely, that's what the Astros have loaded up on. All nine guys in their lineup can hit the ball hard, and that serves them well at home. The Astros were 53-28 at home last season, which was the best mark in the American League. Making matters worse for the Royals today, they'll send right-hander Chris Young to the hill. Young is a flyball pitcher who's style was tailor made for Kaufman Stadium. He could run into some problems against Houston's lineup of sluggers in a hitter-friendly environment. I like the Astros to win this game in rather easy fashion. |
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04-11-16 | Padres v. Phillies -128 | 4-3 | Loss | -128 | 3 h 21 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #902 Philadelphia Phillies over San Diego Padres (3:05pm EST) Baseball is a funny sport where a small sample can really make you look foolish. Case in point is the San Diego Padres. They opened the season at home against the Dodgers and were shutout in all three games by a combined score of 25-0. It didn't take long for people to tag them as the worst offense in the National League. Then they went into Colorado and promptly put up 13 and 16 runs in the first two games of that series - each an easy victory. They dropped the finale, but people are no longer talking about how bad their offense is. In fact, San Diego is now sixth in the league in runs scored so far this season. But ballpark effects are huge in baseball, and games in Coors Field can be discarded almost as much as games played on the moon. The conditions are completely different and you can't expect any carryover. The Padres travel across country now to Philadelphia to start a series with the Phillies. Philadelphia is coming off of two straight wins against the Mets and their pitching was sensational in both contests. They were able to hold a pretty good New York lineup to zero runs and two runs in those games. Aaron Nola gets the ball for the Phils today and he might be the best of their young bunch. Nola was great in his rookie season, where he made 13 starts going 6-2 with a 3.59 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. And he certainly looked like he could be even better this season after an impressive performance against the Reds in his 2016 debut. He went seven innings while allowing just four hits and one run, while striking out eight batters with no walks. The Padres are still going to have a really tough time scoring runs in a non-Coors environment, and I think Nola gets the best of them today. Take the Phillies here. |
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04-09-16 | Astros -144 v. Brewers | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #929 Houston Astros over Milwaukee Brewers (7:10pm EST) The Houston Astros made a blockbuster move in the offseason when they traded five prospects to the Phillies in return for flamethrower Ken Giles. Many tabbed Giles as the missing link to this Astros team, especially after they blew a late lead in the ALDS against the Royals last year. However, another great move by the Astros they got far less attention was the signing of Doug Fister. The veteran starter had a down year with the Nationals last season posting a 4.19 ERA in just 103 innings of work. Part of the problem was injury issues that led to a dip in his velocity. This spring with the Astros, Fister was injury-free and his velocity was back to pre-2015 levels. That's great news for Houston who was able to nab Fister at a bargain one-year deal for $7 million. Today he'll make his Astros debut in Milwaukee against the Brewers. Milwaukee is in the process of rebuilding and it's definitely going to get worse before it gets better. Their two best players, Ryan Braun and Jonathan Lucroy, are getting shopped around after unloading power threat Khris Davis to the A's a month ago. Wily Peralta goes for the Brewers in this one and he'll have his hands full against a powerful Astros lineup. Houston hit the second most homers in the majors last season, just two behind the potent Blue Jays club. Miller Park is known for home runs, so Astros hitters have a great chance to hit some dingers in this series. That includes young superstar Carlos Correa, who has already blasted three home runs in his first three games of the 2016 campaign. I think the Astros will be a little too much for Peralta too handle, and Fister should be pitching with a nice cushion most of the game. Take Houston as our MLB Game of the Week. |
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04-08-16 | Cubs -130 v. Diamondbacks | 2-3 | Loss | -130 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #959 Chicago Cubs over Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40pm EST) The Chicago Cubs couldn't have had a better start to their 2016 season. They are 3-0 and have averaged nearly 10 runs per game in the process. Starting pitchers Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester were dominant in the first two games and John Lackey looked good after he settled down last night. The bullpen has also been excellent and Joe Maddon seems to be pushing all of the right buttons in the early going. Jason Hammel toes the rubber today for the Cubbies after a pretty good spring. Hammel had a strong 24-6 K/BB ratio, which is probably the most important indicator for a pitcher in the spring. He was outstanding in the first half of 2015 before losing his rhythm in the second half. He posted a 3.74 ERA overall last season and a 3.47 ERA the year prior to that, and the Cubs will certainly take similar numbers in 2016. Arizona counters with southpaw Robbie Ray in today's matchup. He had a nice season in 2015 with a 3.52 ERA in a tough environment to pitch in. His stuff is definitely good enough to take another step forward this season, but his mental game probably still needs a little bit of work. With a subpar bullpen, the Diamondbacks' starters are going to feel the pressure of having to go deep into games this season. They are also without one of their stars in A.J. Pollock and that's a bigger loss than most give it credit for. The Cubs are rolling right now and I don't see them letting up in today's game. Take Chicago. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-07-16 | Rangers v. Angels -114 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #918 Los Angeles Angels over Texas Rangers (10:05pm EST) Good early season spot here for the Los Angeles Angels as they host the Texas Rangers. The Halos had a rough opening series against the Cubs that probably made them look worse than they really are. The Cubs will do that to a lot of teams this year. The Angels had a day off to get back on track and now face the Rangers who come in after a tough 9-5 loss to the Mariners in Arlington yesterday. Texas closer Shawn Tolleson blew a ninth inning lead in the game, yielding five runs without recording a single out. Derek Holland makes the start for the Rangers today, and he still hasn't returned to his old form after suffering through some injuries the last couple of seasons. He's only made a total of 15 starts over the last two seasons, so it's difficult to project exactly what he's going to give this team. Most are banking on him becoming the former All-Star pitcher, but I will need to see it for a few starts before I believe it. Hector Santiago will make his 2016 debut in this one for the Angels. He's put together four straight seasons with an ERA of 3.75 or under, yet still doesn't get much credit as a starting pitcher. In fact, he had to fight to make the crowded Los Angeles rotation this season. He's consistently proven the doubters wrong and I expect him to churn out the same type of numbers in 2016. The Angels offense is still centered on Mike Trout and Albert Pujols, and that's a nice foundation to build from. The supporting cast isn't as strong as most fans would like, but I do think it's a bit underrated. Guys like Kole Calhoun and C.J. Cron are just good, solid baseball players. And the addition of shortstop Andrelton Simmons is going to be a game changer for the Angels' pitchers. He's the best defender in all of baseball and that acquisition isn't getting near enough pub. We're going with the Angels today with the better starting pitcher and a lineup that is probably a bit better than most experts think. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-07-16 | Cubs -148 v. Diamondbacks | 14-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #907 Chicago Cubs over Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40pm EST) The best team in baseball heads to Arizona to take on the Diamondbacks on Thursday night. The Chicago Cubs have been tabbed by many as the team to beat in 2016 and for very good reason. Their young offense projects to be tops in the National League, they have one of the better rotations from top to bottom and their bullpen is as deep as they come. But one of the underrated aspects of the Cubs is their amazing depth, which gives mastermind Joe Maddon plenty of options for lineups and strategic moves throughout the game. When you give the best manager in the game all of the ingredients he needs, you can expect excellence. John Lackey was one of three big acquisitions for the Cubs in the offseason, and he may have been the most important one. Lackey brings postseason experience and a tenacity about him that raises the level of play for his teammates. He had a career year with the Cardinals in 2015 (a 2.77 ERA) and has aged well in the National League. Expect Lackey to be locked in like its Game 7 of the World Series tonight, which he has already won with the Angels - as a rookie! The Arizona Diamondbacks made quite a bit of noise in the offseason adding Zack Greinke, Shelby Miller and Jean Segura to an already young and up and coming roster. But they suffered a huge blow before the season when centerfielder A.J. Pollock went down with a severe elbow injury that could cost him the season. He was the igniter for this team and I don't think his injury is being talked about enough. He's worth 4-5 wins all by himself and I think the D-backs are going to suffer without him this season. Rubby De La Rosa gets the ball for Arizona and he's had an inconsistent career thru the age of 27. He has a career 4.51 ERA and hasn't been able to control the long ball in Chase Field. With the Cubs power lineup, I'm guessing we'll see a couple of bombs when he's on the mound. The Cubs are the far superior team and should get the job done today. |
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04-06-16 | Tigers v. Marlins -147 | 7-3 | Loss | -147 | 5 h 25 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #976 Miami Marlins (-150) over Detroit Tigers (4:55pm EST) There are very few certainties in life - death, taxes and possibly Jose Fernandez pitching in Marlins Park. He's not perfect, but Fernandez is an amazing 23-3 at home over his last 26 starts. He's one of the best in the game and the Detroit Tigers will have a tough time against someone they haven't ever faced. The Tigers are also hugely disadvantaged without designated hitter Victor Martinez in their lineup. He pinch hit yesterday and hit a home run, but replacing a few of his at bats with the pitcher spot really hurts this offense. Anibal Sanchez gets the ball in today's game as he faces his former team. Sanchez hasn't been the same since suffering through a host of injuries the last couple of years. He dealt with a couple of ailments in the spring and it's still not clear if he's 100% yet. Last year he posted a whopping 4.99 ERA and fell victim to the long ball 29 times. The Marlins brought in the fences this season, so we should see a lot more home runs this season. Giancarlo Stanton went yard in his first game last night and remains the biggest home run threat in the league. Miami won't need much offense to back up Fernandez today. Two or three runs should be enough and that shouldn't be a problem against Sanchez. Take Miami to get the job done. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-05-16 | Red Sox v. Indians -104 | 6-2 | Loss | -104 | 1 h 50 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #924 Cleveland Indians over Boston Red Sox (4:10pm EST) This matchup got rained out yesterday, but there's no reason we don't like it again today. Aces David Price and Corey Kluber will toe the rubber for the Boston Red Sox and Cleveland Indians. This will be Price's debut for the Red Sox after signing a 7-year, $217 million contract over the winter. There's no question that he's one of the best pitchers on the planet, and there's no need to go over his resume. But his mound opponent is nearly just as good and gets nowhere near the amount of attention. Kluber has quickly developed himself into one of the best pitchers in the game over the last couple of seasons. He strikes out 10 batters per nine innings and his peripheral numbers support and ERA in the 2's. Pitching in Cleveland has created a bit of an undervalued asset, but Kluber will be right there in the Cy Young race along Price all season long. Both of these teams are being projected to have much better campaigns than last season and several experts have both teams atop of their respective divisions at season's end. While I think that's possible, I think Cleveland has a much better chance of making that happen. Cleveland has the pitching. Their problem in years' past has been a subpar lineup and some shaky defense. The lineup is improved with the additions of veterans Mike Napoli, Juan Uribe and Rajai Davis. The defense also is going to improve substantially with a full season of Francisco Lindor at shortstop. The Tribe also has a healthy Yan Gomes behind the dish, and he's one of the best in the game at his position when you take into account offense and defense. The outfield has questions, but I like what I've seen from rookie Tyler Naquin in the spring so far. Boston still has some chemistry questions with the likes of Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez clogging up the payroll. Sandoval is riding the bench with a near $100 million contract, and Hanley is going to switch to a brand new position in first base. Sure the Red Sox have a nice collection of young talent, but are they in the right kind of environment to thrive is the question. I think Boston manager John Farrell has his hands full with the amount of varying personalities on this team. |
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04-05-16 | Astros -116 v. Yankees | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 1 h 47 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #921 Houston Astros over New York Yankees (1:05pm EST) The season opener in Yankee Stadium is a rematch of last year's AL Wild Card game between the Astros and Yankees. We even have the same two starting pitchers on the hill facing off in Dallas Keuchel and Masahiro Tanaka. The Astros won that game last year 3-0 as Keuchel dominated the Yankees lineup in his six innings of work. I don't expect today to be much different as Keuchel's pitching style is perfect for Yankee Stadium. He keeps the ball down and has one of the highest groundball rates in the league, which is huge in a park where the ball jumps out of the yard. The Yankees also feature a lot of left-handed bats in their regular lineup, giving southpaw Keuchel another edge. Tanaka's second season in the majors wasn't nearly as good as his debut season. He had a 2.77 ERA in his rookie campaign and was nearly a run higher last year at 3.51. Some of that could have been due to some injury issues Tanaka dealt with, and we're still not sure he's 100% since he decided to pass on surgery. The Astros have a ton of long ball threats in their lineup, so they should enjoy hitting in Yankee Stadium. Tanaka had some issues with gopher balls in 2015, so it could be a tough day for him. No team has as much upside as Houston does with the likes of Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, George Springer, Carlos Gomez, Tyler White and more. They have been tabbed as the team to beat in the AL West and they deserve that designation. Take the Astros behind Keuchel to get the job done in New York once again. |
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04-03-16 | Blue Jays v. Rays -113 | 5-3 | Loss | -113 | 5 h 2 m | Show | |
7-unit Play Take #904 Tampa Bay Rays (-110) over Toronto Blue Jays (4:05pm EST) The 2016 season is finally here and we see a great opportunity right of the gate in this afternoon's matchup between the Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays. The Jays made big headlines last season with their potent offense and memorable postseason run. Even though they didn't play in the World Series, who will forget the Jose Bautista bat flip against the Rangers. The offense is intact and there's no question that they'll be a force to be reckoned with once again. However, they weren't as dangerous against right-handers as they were against southpaws last season. And today they'll face one of the best righties in the American League in Chris Archer. The Tampa ace faced Toronto six times last season and pitched extremely well in five of those six starts. Archer didn't allow more than two earned runs in those five outings. Toronto's lineup full of right-handed power will find it tough to hit it out of a spacious Tropicana Field against Archer. I really like what the Rays did in the offseason to improve their offense. They added Corey Dickerson, Logan Morrison, Steve Pearce and Brad Miller to bolster an underrated group. Last season, Tampa was 14th in the AL in runs scored. However, they were a much better hitting team than that once you dug into the numbers a bit. The Rays were seventh in the AL in batting average, ninth in on-base percentage and 11th in OPS. They struggled a bit in clutch situations, but that generally doesn't carry over from year to year. They'll face the diminutive Marcus Stroman in today's opener. Stroman got a lot of publicity after coming back from injury and pitching well during the Jays' postseason run. But I don't think he's quite to the ace level people are making him out to be just yet. He doesn't even have a full season of major league work under his belt and has thrown just 157 innings in his young career. Yes he's looked good, but he's at the point now where hitters start to make adjustments against him. While Stroman certainly looks like he could be the real deal, I expect some struggles from him at times during 2016. I like the Rays to grab an Opening Day victory at home today versus Toronto. |
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10-17-15 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Kansas City Royals +150 | 3-6 | Win | 150 | 4 h 19 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #956 Kansas City Royals over Toronto Blue Jays (4:05pm EST) We cashed a ticket with the Royals last night in Game 1, and we like them again in Game 2 for many of the same reasons. David Price and Yordano Ventura go at it in an afternoon tilt in Kaufman Stadium. Price didn't look sharp in his only postseason start versus the Rangers. His schedule is also a bit off after he came out of the bullpen for three innings in Game 4 of the ALDS on Tuesday. The Royals hit really well against top-tiered pitcher this season, including their most recent contest versus Price in the regular season. They roughed him up for five runs in 6.1 innings of work, and only struck out once versus him on the day. Ventura has been extremely sharp over the last couple of months for Kansas City. His control has improved and you can see the confidence in his eyes on the mound. Toronto isn't an easy lineup to navigate, but things may be a bit easier for him today. That's because the Jays bats were cooled off last night by Edinson Volquez and the bullpen. Edwin Encarnacion also was injured in the game and is questionable for today's matchup. That would be a huge factor if he's not in the middle of the lineup. As we mentioned yesterday, Kansas City has the better bullpen, better defense, they have more speed and possess a lot of the intangibles that championship teams have. Throw in the postseason experience, and the Royals just aren't getting enough respect at the moment. This line is about 20-25 cents too high, so we'll gladly scoop up Kansas City as the home underdog here. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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10-12-15 | Toronto Blue Jays -128 v. Texas Rangers | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 10 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #927 Toronto Blue Jays over Texas Rangers (4:05pm EST) The Toronto Blue Jays are still alive after a big Game 3 win in Arlington last night. This isn't a team you want to give any extra confidence to, and their 5-1 victory last night did just that. 40-year old R.A. Dickey will take the mound in Game 4. He's had a decent 2015 campaign, posting a 3.91 ERA in 33 starts while eating 214.1 innings. He was better in the second half than he was in the first, with his knuckler looking strong. Dickey won't have to be spectacular, as there's a good chance he'll get plenty of run support from the best offense in baseball. The Jays will get to tee off on left-hander Derek Holland in this contest. Holland has been a punching bag of late, with a gruesome 7.62 ERA and 16-14 K-BB ratio in his last five starts. And if that wasn't bad enough, Toronto absolutely crushed southpaws this season. They posted a .818 OPS on the season versus left-handers, which was tops in the big leagues. It's hard to imagine Holland getting past the fifth inning in this matchup, and by then the game might be out of hand. Take the Blue Jays to even up this series and head back to Toronto. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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10-08-15 | Houston Astros v. Kansas City Royals -133 | 5-2 | Loss | -133 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #904 Kansas City Royals over Houston Astros (7:35pm EST) We won't go on and on about the Royals again (see write-ups above), but there is one additional reason that they should flourish in Game 1 - Yordano Ventura. The young fireballer once again is in good form, and is pitching like the guy we saw in last year's postseason. He has a big edge over Collin McHugh, so this line should be at least 15-20 cents higher given the Royals strengths everywhere else. Take Kansas City in this one. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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10-06-15 | Houston Astros -108 v. New York Yankees | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
10-unit Play Take #931 Houston Astros over New York Yankees (8:05pm EST) There was one team the Yankees didn't want to see in the Wild Card game, and it's the Houston Astros. That's because they knew they'd be seeing Houston left-hander Dallas Keuchel. Not only has the 27-year old put together a Cy Young type of season, but he has dominated the Yankees both times he faced them in 2015. Keuchel is 20-8 with a 2.48 ERA overall, but against the Yankees he hasn't given up a single run in 16 innings of work. He's 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.63 WHIP between his starts against them at home and at Yankee Stadium this season. New York has a lineup loaded with left-handers, so Keuchel has a huge edge in facing them. He also is the perfect pitcher for Yankee Stadium and its home run tendencies. Keuchel keeps the ball down better than just about any pitcher in the majors with a 63% groundball rate. That will limit the potential for home runs on Tuesday and make it difficult on lefties trying to take advantage of the short dimensions in right field. The Astros offense will go up against Masahiro Tanaka of the Yankees, which is no easy task either. However, Tanaka hasn't been as dominant as he was last season and he's had some issues pitching at home at times. The Astros have a dynamic lineup with lots of big personalities, and I think they will shine with the spotlight on. Take Houston to win the one game playoff and move on to the ALDS. |
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10-03-15 | Chicago Cubs -159 v. Milwaukee Brewers | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #911 Chicago Cubs (-160) over Milwaukee Brewers (7:10pm EST) The Chicago Cubs are a young team, but they certainly aren't feeling the pressure of the pennant race down the stretch. Chicago is 13-4 over its last 17 games and still has a shot to host the NL Wild Card game if they finish up the season with a couple of more wins (depending on how the Pirates fare). Right-hander Kyle Hendricks will take the mound in this one, and he's really been under the radar this season pitching behind guys like Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester. However, Hendricks has established himself as a solid middle-of-the-rotation arm with a 3.33 xFIP and an exceptional 159-43 K-BB ratio on the season. The Cubs have been flashing some great leather of late, and their offense is taking it up a notch as well. The only weak spot at times has been a shaky bullpen, but Joe Maddon has done a great job of pushing the right buttons lately. The Brewers are already thinking about the future as they have plugged in a bevy of young arms to get them some experience in the big leagues. One of those guys is today's starter Tyler Wagner. In his first two major league outings, Wagner has been absolutely bludgeoned to the tune of an 11.74 ERA and 2.61 WHIP. In 7.2 innings of work, the youngster has walked five while only striking out two. It's clear that Wagner isn't ready for the show, but the Brewers are letting him take his lumps. The Cubs should have no problem taking advantage, as they notch another victory today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-27-15 | Atlanta Braves +116 v. Miami Marlins | 5-9 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 36 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #903 Atlanta Braves over Miami Marlins (1:10pm EST) Two terrible baseball teams square off on Sunday afternoon in Miami as the Marlins host the Braves. There are deficiencies all over the field for these two clubs, but I think there's some value on the road team based strictly on the starting pitcher matchup. Shelby Miller is only 5-16 on the season, but you can't really blame him for any of it. He has a very good 3.00 ERA and has kept his team in nearly every single game this season. He's received absolutely no run support, and his bullpen hasn't done him any favors in preserving leads. However, the luck has to turn for Miller at some point, and I see a good opportunity today against the Fish. The offense in Miami has been horrific with Giancarlo Stanton in the middle of the lineup. He was supposed to possibly return in the last few weeks, but that was put to bed as he progressed slowly. Tom Koehler gets the ball for Miami today, and he's been not someone you can count on. His peripherals point to a much higher ERA than the 3.94 mark he currently sports, and he's had lots of problems with control of late. Over his last four starts, Koehler has walked 14 batters. This game could go either way, but I'd prefer to be on the side getting plus money with the better pitcher on the hill. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-20-15 | Philadelphia Phillies v. Atlanta Braves -137 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 2 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #952 Atlanta Braves (-140) over Philadelphia Phillies (1:35pm EST) The Atlanta Braves go for the sweep against the Phillies today at home. This is the battle of the two worst teams in the NL, but they are still in different leagues as far as talent. Yes they are separated by just three games in the standings, but the lineup the Phils are putting out there on a nightly basis is just atrocious - especially with Ryan Howard hurting. The Braves have some promise, and I think they can turn it around in the next couple of years. Big edge on the mound today for Atlanta with Julio Teheran against Aaron Nola. Teheran has had a lackluster year, but he's shown signs of getting better over the last month or so. Nola is still learning and will have some bumps in the road before he figures it out. Take Atlanta at home today. |
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09-18-15 | Cincinnati Reds +112 v. Milwaukee Brewers | 5-3 | Win | 112 | 3 h 25 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #957 Cincinnati Reds (+100)Â over Milwaukee Brewers (8:10pm EST) Everyone knew the Cincinnati Reds were going to trade away Johnny Cueto at the trade deadline. The only question was what kind of haul they would receive in return. They sent Cueto to Kansas City and received three young left-handed pitchers in the deal. It's still too early to evaluate them as a whole, but we'll get a close look at one of the pitchers they acquired in Brandon Finnegan today. This will be the first career start for Finnegan, as he's worked strictly from the bullpen at the big league level thus far. Finnegan made a name for himself in last year's playoffs, and the expectations are that he could be a rotation mainstay for years to come. He has tremendous stuff and I expect him to be pumped up for his first career start against the Brewers on Friday. The Brewers will counter with a youngster of their own in Zach Davies. The 22-year old right-hander has struggled in his first three starts, posting a 6.60 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. His control has been the main problem, as he's walked eight batters in only 15 innings of work. It doesn't as if Davies is quite ready for the big time, but the Brewers are obviously going to let him take his lumps as they're out of contention. I give the Reds a big advantage on the mound today, and that's the direction we'll go as they carry an underdog price. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-13-15 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Cincinnati Reds +125 | 9-2 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 11 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #904 Cincinnati Reds (+125) over St. Louis Cardinals (1:10pm EST) The Cincinnati Reds are going for the four-game sweep against the St. Louis Cardinals today. The Reds have outscored Cards by a whopping 20-3 in this series thus far. Sunday probably features the best pitching matchup for Cincinnati as Raisel Iglesias looks to extend his hot run on the mound. Over his last seven starts, the young right-hander has a strong 54-12 K-BB ratio. On the other side is Michael Wacha, who is coming off of a start in which he gave up six earned runs against the Cubs. His strikeouts have been down over the last few weeks as the innings may be catching up to him. Cincinnati has a better offense than St. Louis, and the better option in the ninth inning in Aroldis Chapman. This line should be much lower, so we'll take the Reds as home underdogs. |
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09-04-15 | San Francisco Giants v. Colorado Rockies -105 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
7-unit Play Take #962 Colorado Rockies (-110) over San Francisco Giants (8:40pm EST) The San Francisco Giants are in a freefall, and it's coming at the worst possible time. They've lost six straight games, including an 11-3 drubbing at the hands of the Rockies yesterday. After getting swept by the Dodgers earlier this week, it appears that the Giants have lost their focus for 2015. They have nothing to be ashamed of after winning three world championships in five seasons. But it looks like fading San Francisco the rest of the way might be a profitable endeavor. The Giants have been really banged up of late, and are currently without one of their leaders and best players in Hunter Pence. Matt Cain and Joe Panik are also on the disabled list, and several other guys on the field just aren't 100%. Chris Heston will make the start tonight after it was thought he'd be bumped from the rotation for ineffectiveness just recently. He's made it past the fifth inning in just one of his last five starts, and has a 5.79 ERA over that span. His 12-13 K-BB ratio in those five outings is even more troublesome. There's no way Heston is going to all of a sudden figure things out in Coors Field against a dangerous Rockies lineup. Chances are he won't get past the fifth inning again. That means Jorge De La Rosa should be in a good position to get a win if he shows up with his usual stuff. This hasn't been the best year for De La Rosa, but he's always liked pitching in Coors. The Giants are just 2-13 in their last 15 road games, and Coors is one of the toughest environments to play in. The Rockies are an amazing 53-15 in De La Rosa's last 68 home starts. Those are some strong trends that can't be overlooked. I don't trust Heston or the Giants right now, so the Rockies at home are the play. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-31-15 | Tampa Bay Rays -114 v. Baltimore Orioles | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 31 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #965 Tampa Bay Rays over Baltimore Orioles (7:05pm EST) The Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles are starting to drift out of the playoff hunt in the American League. This is an important series for both teams, as it's basically do or die time. And in a big game to open the series, I'm not sure there are many better options than Chris Archer of the Rays. The 26-year old has put together an excellent season with a 2.88 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 27 starts. He's coming off a 12-strikeout and 11-strikeout game, so Archer is certainly in good form at the moment. The Orioles have dropped nine of 10 games and appear to be in free fall mode. They'll look for Wei-Yin Chen to stem the tide today. He's had a solid season overall for the O's, but isn't someone who is going to win a game for you. In only one of his 25 starts did he totally shut down his opponents (zero runs allowed) this season. They're going to need him to be at his very best to have a chance in this game. I just don't think you can pass up on Tampa with their ace on the hill against a reeling O's team at this price. Take the Rays here. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-27-15 | Baltimore Orioles v. Kansas City Royals -130 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 45 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #968 Kansas City Royals over Baltimore Orioles (2:10pm EST) The Kansas City Royals have the best record in the American League, but you wouldn't know it by looking at the lines on their games each day. Kansas City is rarely a high-priced favorite, and a lot of that has to do with their less than stellar starting rotation. No one likes to bet on an inferior pitcher. But in the case of the Royals, it makes sense. That's because the Royals are so good in every other area of the game. They have one of the best bullpens in all of baseball, a dynamic defense and they do all of the little things that win you baseball games. Those don't always get factored in the betting line, but there's a reason this team in 28 games over the .500 mark. Today they are modest favorites at home against the Orioles. Yordano Ventura goes up against Chris Tillman, which is actually a small advantage to the Royals. But when you factor in the rest of the team, it's hard to make sense of the line. Home field alone is worth 15-20 cents, so this line is basically saying that the Royals are just ever-so-slightly better than the O's overall. And we all know that's not the case. The Royals are a lot better. I also like the way Ventura is throwing the ball of late, as he's seemed to finally find his groove. Take Kansas City here. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-26-15 | New York Mets -142 v. Philadelphia Phillies | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
2-unit Play Take #901 New York Mets (-145) over Philadelphia Phillies (7:05pm EST) The New York Mets are a force to reckoned with in the National League. Not only is their frontline starting pitching the best group of young arms in the game, but their offense is turning into a juggernaut as well. Over their last five games, the Mets have scored 55 runs - an average of 11 per game! All five were wins. Through acquisitions, call ups and some guys getting healthy, their lineup is completely different looking than it was earlier in the year. That's great news for a pitching staff that didn't need a ton of help. One guy that will appreciate the run support is Bartolo Colon, who has been inconsistent at best this season. The 42-year old veteran comes in with a 4.90 ERA on the season, but he will go up against a weak Phillies lineup that is missing their best hitter. Rookie Maikel Franco has had a fantastic season, but is now on the disabled list with a wrist injury. The Phillies have a ton of young hitters in the lineup now, and that should play into Colon's hands as he utilizes deception more than anything. The Phils counter with rookie Jerad Eickhoff in this one. He looked pretty good in his major league debut last time out. But let's not put too much stock into one outing, as the Mets will surely take a close look at the youngster on film. Eickhoff owned a 4.25 ERA in 18 appearances in Triple-A, and I wouldn't expect him to do any better than that at the big league level. With the way the Mets are swinging the bats at the moment, I'd be surprised if Eickhoff makes it past the fifth innings. Take red hot New York to get the job done once again today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-25-15 | Boston Red Sox +122 v. Chicago White Sox | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #973 Boston Red Sox over Chicago White Sox (8:10pm EST) It's been a terrible season once again for the Boston Red Sox. This will be their third last place finish in four years, and it's caused a management shakeup in the process. The simple reason that this team failed is that their big free agent signings just didn't come though. One of their acquisitions was left-hander Wade Miley. A solid middle-of-the-rotation arm for the Diamondbacks, Miley was counted on for consistency and innings in Beantown. But for nearly the entire season, it's been Miley's inconsistency that has plagued him. However, over his last four starts, Miley has seemingly turned a corner. He has posted a respectable 3.33 ERA and 1.07 WHIP to go along with a strong 24-5 K-BB ratio over that span. Now that the pressure is off, I think Miley is comfortable and has found a nice groove. The White Sox season has pretty miserable as well, as they could never find their identity. The offense, or lack thereof, has been a huge source of problems throughout the 2015 campaign. Their 14th in the AL in runs scored, ahead of only the Rays. But their defense has been even worse, and their bullpen hasn't been pretty either. The starting pitching has been the only positive for the White Sox this season, and today's starter Jose Quintana certainly fits that bill. He's been rock solid once again with a 3.60 ERA, although his numbers are down a bit from last season. With the way Miley is throwing right now, you have to give him the edge in this matchup. In analyzing the rest of the team, the Red Sox are a bit better team overall as well. As a result, this line is about 10-15 cents too high. Take Boston as our Game of the Week. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-19-15 | Chicago White Sox v. Los Angeles Angels -132 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #970 Los Angeles Angels over Chicago White Sox (10:05pm EST) The Los Angeles Angels hadn't been playing well lately. But it appears all they needed was a visit from the Chicago White Sox to get back on track. The Halos have taken the first two games of the series, and they half two left versus Chicago. Wednesday's matchup features two pitchers that aren't exactly having banner seasons - Jered Weaver and Jeff Samardzija. Weaver has battled some injury issues, so he could be given somewhat of a pass with his 4.78 ERA. Samardzija, on the other hand, has the same 4.78 ERA but has been healthy all season. In fact, Samardzija is seemingly in the midst of his worst stretch of his entire career right now. Over his last three starts, the tall right-hander is 0-3 with a 12.92 ERA and 1.89 WHIP. That's about as ugly of a stat line as you'll see for a starting pitcher. Both teams have struggled offensively this season, but the Angels clearly have more potential given that Mike Trout and Albert Pujols are still in the middle of their lineup. The bullpens may play an important role in this one as well, and we'll give the nod to Los Angeles there as well. Playing at home, it's hard to understand why the Angels aren't bigger favorites here. Take Los Angeles. |
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08-15-15 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. New York Mets -106 | 5-3 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #952 New York Mets over Pittsburgh Pirates (7:10pm EST) The New York Mets have been one of the hottest teams in baseball of late, and their ballclub has improved tremendously from earlier on in the season. They are 16-9 over their last 25 games to take over first place in the NL East. Before the deadline, they added four important pieces - Yoenis Cespedes, Kelly Johnson, Juan Uribe and Tyler Clippard. All of them have made big contributions and they've also gotten a couple of guys back from injury recently. Starting pitching has been one of the major strengths of this team. Jon Niese doesn't get much attention because he's not one of the young studs, but he's been very solid since cracking the Mets rotation in 2009. He comes in with a 3.46 ERA on the season and has looked very impressive over his last three outings. The Pirates just find ways to win baseball games, but I don't think they're as good as their 67-46 record indicates. I'm also not a huge fan of today's starter Charlie Morton. His strikeouts are down significantly and that's probably why we've seen the rise in his ERA to 4.48 on the season. The Pirates are a little banged up right now without Josh Harrison, Jordy Mercer and Starling Marte (questionable for today). The Mets are an unbelievable 42-19 at home this season, and I think they notch another win today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-14-15 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. New York Mets -114 | 3-2 | Loss | -114 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #902 New York Mets over Pittsburgh Pirates (7:10pm EST) The New York Mets have won 14 of 18 to catapult themselves into first place in the NL East. It's been a complete team effort as the starting pitching has been dominant, the offense has finally come around, the defense is tops in the league and the bullpen has closed out games. The trades that the Mets made before the deadline have had a huge impact, as Yoenis Cespedes, Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe have all contributed significantly. They also got Michael Cuddyer and Travis d'Arnaud back from injury recently, which were nice boosts. All in all, New York is in a really nice position and is definitely the favorite to beat out the Nationals in the division. They begin a series at home versus the Pirates on Friday night. Pittsburgh comes in after an intense series with the Cardinals, so they might not be as focused as the Mets are right now. Bartolo Colon and J.A. Happ will square off, which is basically a wash. I like the Mets in this matchup because they are hitting on all cylinders offensively right now and they've been fantastic at home this season. The Mets are an unbelievable 42-18 in Citi Field this season, which is the second best record in baseball. Conversely, Pittsburgh is just 27-28 on the road. The value is on the Mets tonight. |
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08-14-15 | Chicago Cubs -101 v. Chicago White Sox | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 5 m | Show | |
10-unit Play Take #929 Chicago Cubs over Chicago White Sox (4:10pm EST) No team is hotter right now than the Chicago Cubs. They've won 13 of 14 games overall to propel them into the second wild card spot in the National League. The young hitters are really starting to come into their own at the same time, so this club is only going to better down the stretch. Kyle Schwarber has provided a huge boost over the last couple of months, as he is batting .330 and has already cranked eight home runs in just 104 at bats. The starting pitching has also been phenomenal and today's starter Kyle Hendricks has been a huge reason why. Since June 30, Hendricks is 4-1 and owns a 2.55 ERA and a 45-12 K-BB ratio. He doesn't get much attention pitching behind Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta and Jason Hammel, but Hendricks is quickly developing into one of the best back-of-the-rotation starters in the league. The Cubs also sport one of the better defenses in the National League, a part of the game that doesn't get factored in enough. The White Sox haven't really had a terrible season at 54-58, but they've been extremely fortunate to avoid injuries this season. In fact, none of their regulars have spent time on the disabled list in 2015. Former Cub Jeff Samardzija gets the ball in today's crosstown matchup for the Sox. He has had an ugly season no matter how you slice and dice it, and his last two outings were particularly brutal. He lasted only 4.2 innings in each of those starts, allowing nine runs and seven runs respectively. With the way the Cubs are swinging the bats, he might not last even that long today. The White Sox took two out of three from the Cubs in Wrigley several weeks back, and I think the Cubs return the favor in US Cellular in this series. Take the Cubs to take the first game behind an improving Hendricks. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-13-15 | Washington Nationals -127 v. San Francisco Giants | 1-3 | Loss | -127 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #959Â Washington Nationals over San Francisco Giants (10:15pm EST)Â It's been a tough season for Nats right-hander Stephen Strasburg. Not only has he battled through an oblique strain to get back on the field, but he's also had terrible luck while he's been on the mound. Strasburg owns a .345 BABIP, which is amongst the highest levels in baseball. He's also stranded only 65% of baserunners this season - one of the lowest marks amongst qualifiers. Both of those numbers should regress towards the mean and result in a huge improvement over his 4.76 ERA from here on out. In fact, his strikeout and walk rates are still very good at 9.9 and 2.4 respectively. They're not as dominant as last season, but Strasburg is still capable of being elite. And we saw that in his last start against the Rockies. He pitched seven innings in that outing and struck out 12 batters without issuing a walk. He also gave up just three hits and one run while earning himself a win. If he can build off of that, the Giants are going to be in big trouble on Thursday. San Francisco is currently without Angel Pagan, Joe Panik and Nori Aoki. Those are three big losses considering that they aren't a particularly deep squad this season. They were shut out 2-0 at home on Wednesday afternoon against Scott Feldman and the Astros. They'll have a much tougher task on Thursday against Strasburg. That means the pressure will be on right-hander Ryan Vogelsong to keep the Nationals offense at bay. That's asking a lot from the veteran who has really been subpar over the last couple of seasons. He comes into this one with a 4.26 ERA, and that's probably as low as it gets at this point in his career. All signs point to Washington in this one. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-12-15 | Los Angeles Angels -123 v. Chicago White Sox | 2-3 | Loss | -123 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #919 Los Angeles Angels over Chicago White Sox (8:10pm EST) Andrew Heaney is making the Angels' management look good so far. Many fans were upset with the team for trading away Howie Kendrick for an unproven pitcher, but those critics have been silenced. The 24-year old southpaw is 5-1 with a 2.45 ERA since being called up. His great control at a young age has been the key to his success, as Heaney is walking only 1.4 batters per nine innings in his eight starts. He hasn't been as sharp in the last couple of outings, but rookies have to make a lot of adjustments at the big league level. He has a great pitching coach and I'm confident he can stay ahead of the hitters with his stuff. The White Sox have had one of the worst offenses in all of baseball this season. Outside of Jose Abreu, there isn't anyone in the lineup that scares you. They are dead last in the AL in OPS and only the Rays have scored less runs than the Sox. John Danks toes the rubber for Chicago in his 22nd start of the season. It's kind of amazing that Danks has managed to keep a spot in the rotation over the last couple of years despite some very poor numbers. From 2012 to 2015, Danks has posted ERAs of 5.70, 4.75, 4.74 and 4.79, respectively. Being patient with a veteran is one thing, but not allowing some of the younger talent to have a chance on a non-contending team is ridiculous. The Angels are the much better team and have a far superior option on the mound on Wednesday. Take the road team here. |
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08-12-15 | Texas Rangers +105 v. Minnesota Twins | 1-11 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
2-unit Play Take #923 Texas Rangers over Minnesota Twins (8:10pm EST) Everyone knew the fallout would come eventually. After a surprising first half of the season, the Minnesota Twins have finally come back down to earth. They are just 6-16 over their last 22 games with no end in sight. They'll send a struggling Mike Pelfrey to the hill on Wednesday against the Rangers as they look to get back on track. Pelfrey is coming off one of his worst performances of the season last time out, when he gave up seven earned runs in 3.2 innings to the Indians. The Rangers offense is pretty good with everyone healthy now. Prince Fielder has re-emerged as a superstar and Mitch Moreland is coming into his own. Toss in some of the others like Josh Hamilton, Adrian Beltre, Shin-Soo Choo and Elvis Andrus, and you have a formidable lineup. Nick Martinez gets the ball for Texas as he looks to get back on track. I don't have a ton of confidence in him, but he has much better stuff than Pelfrey and a better defense behind him. Martinez should get plenty of support and the Rangers should come out on top. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-11-15 | Atlanta Braves v. Tampa Bay Rays -176 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #978 Tampa Bay Rays over Atlanta Braves (7:10pm EST) Big mismatch here on Tuesday night as the Rays host the Braves. The American League has destroyed the bad teams in the National League this season, and this game should hold true to that form. Williams Perez goes for the Braves and he's been about as bad as it gets in his last four outings. His ERA over that stretch is 8.57 and he has a putrid 12-10 K-BB ratio in 21 innings of work. He definitely belongs in the minor leagues (Double-A not Triple-A), but the Braves are out of contention and letting him work out his problems at the big league level. Tampa Bay counters with right-hander Erasmo Ramirez. Many had written off Ramirez after some shaky times with the Mariners. But the Rays have a way of improving pitchers unlike any other team in baseball. That's the reason they've stayed around the .500 mark despite a torrent of injuries this season. If Tampa were in the National League, I think they'd be in the playoff hunt right now. Take the Rays in this one to get an easy win. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-10-15 | Baltimore Orioles v. Seattle Mariners +113 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
2-unit Play Take #914 Seattle Mariners over Baltimore Orioles (10:10pm EST) It's been a disappointing season in Seattle, but the team isn't giving up. The Mariners have won five of seven and seem to be a much looser bunch than they were earlier in the season. They'll begin a three-game series versus the Orioles starting tonight. This is the last stop on a nine-game West Coast trip for the O's, so they might be a bit more fatigued than usual. Wei-Yin Chen gets the ball for Baltimore, while Vidal Nuno goes for the M's. Most would say clear advantage for the O's, but I don't think the difference is as big as most think. I like Nuno's stuff and think he can turn into a usable starting pitcher at the big league level. He's proved that he has good stuff working out of the bullpen this year. He has a nice 2.52 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 22 appearances and a strong K-BB ratio. His only problem is a low groundball rate, but that shouldn't affect his as much in Safeco Field. We've seen the Mariners offense wake up over the last few weeks, and a lot of that has to do with the re-emergence of Robinson Cano. He's been fighting some stomach issues, and now appears to be back to his old form. This game should be closer to pick em, so we'll gladly take the Mariners as a home underdog here. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-08-15 | Philadelphia Phillies v. San Diego Padres -200 | 4-2 | Loss | -200 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
2-unit Play Take #914 San Diego Padres over Philadelphia Phillies (8:40pm EST) It's been a disappointing season for the San Diego Padres, but the team hasn't put their heads down. Surprisingly, GM A.J. Preller decided to keep the team intact at the trade deadline. It's probably not the smartest long-term move, but I think it was somewhat of a confidence booster for the players. The Pads are 11-9 since the All-Star break and have been a good second half team over the last several years. Today they'll face the worst team in baseball - the Philadelphia Phillies. Before trading away Cole Hamels, Jonathan Papelbon and Ben Revere, this was the worst team in the league by a wide margin. But now, we're approaching Triple-A level. Somehow the Phils have managed to play decent baseball of late, but the bottom will soon be falling out in a hurry. Adam Morgan will go for Philadelphia in this contest as he looks to find a groove. His peripheral numbers are absolutely awful in his seven starts, with a meager 4.9 strikeout rate per nine innings versus a 3.1 walk rate. He also has a putrid 29% groundball rate, which is the lowest in the league. The Padres have a very capable lineup, so this one could get ugly for Morgan early on. Tyson Ross has been as solid as they come for San Diego the last couple of seasons, and he's throwing it really well at the moment. This one has Padres written all over it. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-08-15 | Baltimore Orioles v. Los Angeles Angels -147 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -147 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #928 Los Angeles Angels over Baltimore Orioles (9:05pm EST) Ubaldo Jimenez has had some unbelievable pitching performances throughout his career, as well as some absolute duds. In fact, his career has been marred by inconsistency. He looked like he might be turning a corner this season, but Jimenez is back to his old tricks once again. Up until his last four starts, Jimenez had an ERA in the low 3's with no blowups. But over his last four outings, he has an abysmal 10.61 ERA and 1.71 WHIP. He may eventually snap out of this funk, but now is the time to fade Jimenez. The Angels have been swinging the bats better of late, and I like their pickups before the trade deadline. David Murphy, Shane Victorino, and David DeJesus aren't stars, but collectively they add quite a bit of firepower to the offensive attack - especially considering who they replaced. Garrett Richards will take the ball for the Halos. He's been rock solid once again in 2015 after a breakthrough season last year. The Angels shouldn't need a huge effort from Richards, as the offense should do most of the work against Jimenez today. This line about 10-15 cents too low, so take Los Angeles as our Game. |
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08-08-15 | San Francisco Giants v. Chicago Cubs -138 | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 5 h 14 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #904 Chicago Cubs over San Francisco Giants (4:05pm EST) The Chicago Cubs enter Saturday's contest against the Giants as one of the hottest teams in baseball. They've won eight of nine contests and have taken over the lead in the Wild Card race over the Giants in the process. The Cubs will look to win their third straight over the Giants in this series and I think they have a great shot at doing it. Kyle Hendricks takes the ball for Chicago and he's quietly been developing into one of the best back-of-the-rotation starters in the National League. Hendricks comes in with a 3.67 ERA on the season and I've noticed him tweaking some things over the last couple of months to make him even more effective. The Giants are playing their ninth game of a 10-game road trip, and I think it's starting to wear them down. They've looked a little off during their last couple of games in a series that is way too important to lose focus. Matt Cain makes the start for San Francisco as he tries to find his old form. The veteran right-hander has a bulky 4.91 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in six starts since returning from the disabled list. The Giants are going to need a big effort from Cain in this game, and I don't think he can come through. The bullpen has also been worked a lot lately, and the results have been mediocre at best. This game is the Cubs' to lose. Take Chicago to win its ninth game in ten tries today. |
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08-07-15 | Cincinnati Reds +121 v. Arizona Diamondbacks | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
2-unit Play Take #961 Cincinnati Reds over Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40pm EST) We've backed the Reds quite a bit this season, and overall they've made us some money. Yes they are 10 games under the .500 mark, but they have a great offense and their defense is one of the best in baseball. Their starting rotation is definitely lacking, but they don't ask for much from them. If they can get six solid innings, they are happy to leave it to their bullpen. They've got one of the best 1-2 punches in the pen in J.J. Hoover and Aroldis Chapman, and will win nearly every game that they lead late because of it. Raisel Iglesias takes the mound for Cincinnati and I like his stuff in the little I've seen of him. He's definitely gaining confidence as he learns the ropes in the big leagues in his rookie season. He'll face a tough Arizona Diamondbacks lineup on Friday, as the Snakes have been one of the top offenses in the league for most of the season. It's the pitching that has let Arizona down, and that could be an issue again today. Chase Anderson just returned from the disabled list, and this will be his first start back. He was dealing with a triceps issue, so we'll see if he's 100% or maybe a little bit rusty. Either way, I doubt Arizona will let him pitch deep into the game. That will expose a shoddy bullpen that has been mediocre at best in middle relief. The Reds are certainly worth grabbing at this price. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-07-15 | Los Angeles Dodgers -132 v. Pittsburgh Pirates | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -132 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #953 Los Angeles Dodgers over Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05pm EST) It's not often that you are going to get Clayton Kershaw at a price this low, and especially not when he's in the midst of a scoreless innings streak of 37. After a slow start to the 2015 season by his standards, Kershaw is now looking better than ever. The Dodgers as a team have also been playing really good baseball, winning six of their last seven heading into this series. Pitching has been the key during the run, as the starters are going deep into games and the bullpen is shutting the door. The Pirates are a formidable opponent for sure, but they've benefitted somewhat from one of the easiest schedules in baseball thus far. They're also a bit banged up at the moment with Josh Harrison and Jordy Mercer on the disabled list. They brought in Aramis Ramirez from the Brewers, but I'm not sure that's much of an upgrade from what they already had. Gerrit Cole gets the ball for Pittsburgh and he's having a tremendous season. He checks in at 14-5 with a 2.29 ERA in 21 starts. This should be a fun one to watch, but you can't pass up the best pitcher in baseball at this kind of price the way he's throwing it right now. |
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08-06-15 | San Francisco Giants v. Chicago Cubs -118 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #912 Chicago Cubs over San Francisco Giants (8:05pm EST) A big series gets underway in Wrigley Field as the Cubs host the Giants in the first of four games. These teams are separated by just a half game in the wild card race as we enter the final third of the season. This matchup couldn't have come at a better time for the Cubs as they've won six of seven. They also manage to avoid Madison Bumgarner in this series as he pitched yesterday. Thursday's matchup will feature Chris Heston versus Jason Hammel. Both hurlers are having very good seasons, but each has struggled of late. I give a slight edge to Hammel today, as I think he can right the ship sooner than the rookie. Heston may be hitting the proverbial wall that first year pitchers often times do. He's thrown 130.2 innings this season, and the Giants probably want to limit him to 180 or so this season. Chicago's offense has been swinging the bats well, so I think they could bounce Heston early from this one. Take the red hot Cubs at home to win the first game of this important series. |
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08-06-15 | Kansas City Royals v. Detroit Tigers -104 | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 2 h 38 m | Show | |
2-unit Play Take #913 Kansas City Royals over Detroit Tigers (1:05pm EST) Before the season started, you could have expected that this would be a big late season matchup. But the Royals have a comfortable lead in the AL Central, while the Tigers were sellers at the trade deadline. They were able to score some big time prospects in dealing away David Price and Yoenis Cespedes. With Miguel Cabrera still on the disabled list, that's three of Detroit's top five players not a part of this one. While the market has surely adjusted the Tigers rating downward, I don't think they lowered them enough. This lineup just isn't as dangerous with Cabrera and Cespedes in the middle. Yordano Ventura gets the ball for this one as he looks for his seventh win. It hasn't been a great season for the youngster, but his peripheral numbers show that the skills are all there. All the Royals need is for Ventura to get them through six innings, and the dominant bullpen can take over from there. Anibal Sanchez has struggled this season as well, and once again he has better secondary numbers to show that improvement is coming. The Royals offense is clearly the better of these two, however, as they've consistently put runs on the board all season long. Throw in the exceptional defense and the strong fundamentals, and it's hard not to like Kansas City at this price. Play the Royals. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-04-15 | Seattle Mariners -111 v. Colorado Rockies | Top | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #929 Seattle Mariners over Colorado Rockies (8:40pm EST) Once again the American League is beating up on the National League. Coming into today's action, the AL leads the NL by 11 games in interleague play. While the top teams in the NL are certainly holding their own, it's the bottom feeders that have really struggled against the AL. The Rockies are a miserable 2-13 against AL teams this season, including an 8-7 loss to the Mariners last night. These two squads will go at it again on Tuesday as Vidal Nuno and Jonathan Gray square off. This will be the first start of the season for both of these young hurlers. Nuno has made 21 appearances out of the bullpen for Seattle, and has posted an impressive 2.02 ERA. Going through the lineup multiple times is obviously a lot tougher than throwing one inning at a time, but Nuno does have plenty of experience as a starting pitcher. He's been pitching as a starter all through the minors and broke into the league as one in 2014 making 28 starts. He has good stuff has really improved in the area of putting guys away this season. He has a strong 9.6 strikeout rate per nine innings and is walking just a hair over two batters per nine. Pitching in Coors is no easy task, but I expect Nuno to hold his own for at least six innings today. Gray makes his big league debut in this one for the Rocks. He has been one of the top pitcher's in Colorado's system for a couple of years, so there will be lots of eyeballs on the youngster. Gray has great stuff but he couldn't really put it all together at Triple-A this season. He had a 4.33 ERA in 21 games and struggled with his command frequently. I trust Nuno over the rookie, and this Mariners team is the better team all around. Take Seattle at a gift of a price. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-04-15 | Tampa Bay Rays +122 v. Chicago White Sox | 11-3 | Win | 122 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #923 Tampa Bay Rays over Chicago White Sox (8:10pm EST) Great matchup in US Cellular Field tonight as the Chris Sale and the White Sox host Chris Archer and the Rays. These are two of the leading candidates for the AL Cy Young this season, so we should see a similar game as yesterday's one run win by Tampa Bay. Both starters will go deep with minimal damage, and the bullpens will end up deciding it. I trust Tampa's bullpen a little bit more, as well as the late game tactical decisions by manager Kevin Cash as opposed to Robin Ventura. The reason that the Rays have managed to stay around .500 this year with so many injuries, is that they do all of the little things right. Fundamentals, defense, baserunning, managerial decisions, you name it and Tampa does it. That's what is going to win today's matchup, so we're on the Rays here. |
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08-03-15 | Tampa Bay Rays +114 v. Chicago White Sox | 5-4 | Win | 114 | 9 h 14 m | Show | |
10-unit Play Take #965 Tampa Bay Rays over Chicago White Sox (8:10pm EST) The line on Monday's game between the Tampa Bay Rays and Chicago White Sox is hard to figure out. Tampa Bay is the better team, has the better pitcher on the mound and gets the check mark when it comes to intangibles and managing. I think it really comes down to the lack of respect that Tampa Bay gets no matter what the circumstances are. Sure this team has some holes, but they can certainly pitch and they do all of the little things right to help them win baseball games. Nate Karns get the ball on Monday, and he's quietly been one of the most consistent and effective starters in the American League. He enters today's game with a 3.37 ERA and is striking out 8.3 batters per nine innings. The Tampa Bay pitching staff has been the best in baseball at developing young arms, so it's no surprise that Karns has come out of nowhere to become the solid starter he is. The White Sox have been playing better baseball of late, but this still isn't a good ballclub overall. The starting pitching is good, but everywhere else they are deficient. Defensively is where they fall extremely short, as the Sox are near the very bottom in baseball in defensive efficiency. With Karns going up against Jose Quintana, there's a good chance this game will be tight and come down to the bullpens. If that's the case, give Tampa the edge there too. Take the Rays as underdogs here. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-03-15 | New York Mets -113 v. Miami Marlins | 12-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #957 New York Mets over Miami Marlins (7:10pm EST) The Mets won a big series against the Nationals over the weekend, and have catapulted themselves back into first place in the NL East as a result. That has to be a huge confidence builder for this team. Throw in a couple of big additions before the trade deadline (Yoenis Cespedes and Tyler Clippard) and New York has lots of momentum entering this series against the Marlins. The same can't be said of Miami, who hasn't found its rhythm all season long. Things have only gotten worse since General Manager Dan Jennings stepped into the dugout to manage the team. Giancarlo Stanton is also still on the disabled list, and that leaves a huge void in the middle of the lineup. Bartolo Colon and Tom Koehler will take the mound in this matchup, and while Koehler checks in with the better ERA on the season, I think Colon is the better pitcher. His peripherals are better and he has a better defense behind him with the Mets. The addition of Clippard also gives the Mets one of the best bullpens in the league. Take New York to get the win here. |
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08-02-15 | Seattle Mariners -122 v. Minnesota Twins | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 2 h 18 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #921 Seattle Mariners over Minnesota Twins (2:10pm EST) Mike Pelfrey is back. After impersonating a good pitcher earlier this season, Pelfrey is finally throwing up beach balls for his opponents to hammer. Over his last five starts, the 31-year old has a bulky 6.84 ERA to go along with a lousy 12-9 K-BB ratio. On the season, Pelfrey is striking out just 4.3 batters per nine innings. That's not going to get it done at the big league level, and it's somewhat surprising that he's still in the Twins rotation. This isn't the same last place team that can let guys work through their problems. They are currently in a wild card spot in the AL and have to give themselves the best chance to win. But we're betting that the Mariners can take advantage. They send Hisashi Iwakuma to the mound for his ninth start of the season. Injuries have hampered the right-hander, but his peripheral numbers have been solid despite a high 5.10 ERA. Iwakuma knows how to pitch and should have few problems with a weak Twins lineup. This is a big mismatch on the mound and I think the M's get the victory here. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-02-15 | Kansas City Royals +134 v. Toronto Blue Jays | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 22 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #913 Kansas City Royals over Toronto Blue Jays (1:05pm EST) The Toronto Blue Jays made the big headline moves before the trade deadline, picking up Troy Tulowitzki and David Price. It gives them a shot to make the playoffs, but it's certainly not a given. This team still has its flaws, and they are probably going to be overvalued by the betting markets following the big moves. The bullpen couldn't hold down the lead yesterday and that's been a recurring problem in 2015. That puts extra pressure on their starting pitchers, and they haven't handled it well. R.A. Dickey toes the rubber for the Jays today, and it's been a rough season for the veteran. Dickey owns a 4.27 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, but it's his 5.5 strikeout rate per nine innings which is particularly troubling. The Royals don't strike out often, so we should see plenty of balls in play against Dickey. The Royals have the best record in the AL, but still aren't respected as the top team. They have consistently been only small favorites or underdogs, as is the case today. Kansas City is still the better squad between these two, and they have the pitching edge with Edinson Volquez on the mound. Play the Royals. |
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08-01-15 | San Francisco Giants v. Texas Rangers -120 | 9-7 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #980 Texas Rangers over San Francisco Giants (8:05pm EST) After tons of speculation and rumors, Cole Hamels was finally dealt before the trade deadline earlier this week. It's a bit surprising that he didn't end up with a contender, but that is the Rangers' gain. He'll fit in well in Texas and I expect him to bring a spark to this team. He'll face a familiar foe in the Giants today as he makes his first start in Arlington. The Giants are playing good baseball, but just had their streak broken last night. Chris Heston has had a wonderful rookie season for the Giants. But I think he's starting to hit a wall and could struggle in these last two months. Young pitchers always have to make adjustments to stay ahead of the hitters, and I think Heston is at that point. The Rangers have a tough lineup to navigate and it's finally 100% healthy. I expect them to knock Heston out early today and get the win. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-01-15 | Chicago Cubs -118 v. Milwaukee Brewers | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #957 Chicago Cubs over Milwaukee Brewers (7:10pm EST) The Brewers have been playing good baseball of late, but all of that momentum is gone after the team unloaded several key veterans before the trade deadline. Gone are Carlos Gomez, Mike Fiers and Aramis Ramirez, which has the Brew Crew in full rebuild mode. The Cubs send Kyle Hendricks to the mound for this one and he's quietly been one of the best back of the rotation starters in the National League. Hendricks carries a 3.81 ERA into this game, and is getting better in each start. Over his last six outings, the right-hander has a 2.43 ERA to go along with a 34-8 K-BB ratio. Take the Cubs to win their fourth straight today. |
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07-31-15 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Houston Astros -150 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -150 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #928 Houston Astros over Arizona Diamondbacks (8:10pm EST) For some reason not everyone is a 100% believer in the Houston Astros just yet. They've led the AL West for virtually the entire 2015 season and outscored their opponents by over 70 runs this season. Still they aren't getting priced like a legitimate contender. Add in a couple of big trades before the deadline, bringing in Carlos Gomez, Mike Fiers and Scott Kazmir. Still, no respect. The fact is, this Astros team might have a better shot in winning the American League than anyone else. They don't really have any glaring weaknesses, and most of their roster is very young and improving by the day. One guy who isn't young is today's starter Scott Feldman. One of the grizzled veterans, Feldman has been solid but unspectacular over the last few seasons. He won't go out and win the game all by himself, but he's also not going to lose it for you either. The Astros offense has had a nice boost after calling up the highly-touted Carlos Correa, and the addition of Gomez should being a similar spark. They'll face a Diamondbacks team that is certainly overachieving in 2015. Nobody expected Arizona to be hovering around the .500 mark this late in the season. I think we'll see them tail off a bit down the stretch, however, as the team eyes the future of the franchise. This line is almost 20 cents too low, so Houston is a huge 7-unit selection for us. |
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07-31-15 | Tampa Bay Rays +108 v. Boston Red Sox | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #917 Tampa Bay Rays over Boston Red Sox (7:10pm EST) The Boston Red Sox have been out of contention for quite some time and it's going to be a long final two months for them. I think a big part of the problem for the Red Sox is the makeup of their team. I don't see the same chemistry as was previously there, and it's costing them on the field. The Tampa Bay Rays, meanwhile, have been scratching and clawing to stay around .500 mark all season long. They've certainly exceeded the expectations of most and still have an outside chance at the postseason. It's pretty amazing what Tampa has done with their starting pitchers over the years. They seemingly can turn any hurler into an above average asset. That's the case with Erasmo Ramirez - today's starter. The Mariners basically gave him away and now he's producing in a big way. He comes in 8-4 with a 3.74 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 22 games. His walk rate is down drastically from last season and he just seems more comfortable on the mound. On the other side is Boston starter Eduardo Rodriguez. The young right-hander showed flashes of brilliance earlier this season, but lately he's been erratic on the mound. I think he has a bright future in Beantown, but right now he's just trying to learn and there will be plenty of bumps along the way. We'll take the Rays as the underdog in this matchup. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-30-15 | Los Angeles Angels +133 v. Houston Astros | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
2-unit Play Take #943 Los Angeles Angels over Houston Astros (8:10pm EST) This has been a great series between the Los Angeles Angels and Houston Astros as the teams battle for AL West supremacy. These teams are separated by just one game in the standings and I expect a dogfight all the way down to the final week of the season. Both of these clubs have been improving themselves as we approach the trading deadline, with the Halos adding three veteran outfielders to the mix. The Astros brought in Scott Kazmir, who will be taking the hill today. Kazmir put up excellent numbers in Oakland, but a large part of his success was pitching in O.co Coliseum. He's going to have to earn it in Houston. His peripherals also don't fully support his ultralow ERA. Los Angeles counters with Matt Shoemaker, who has been much better of late and is coming off of his best performance of the season. Last time out against the Twins, Shoemaker threw six scoreless innings while punching out 10 batters and allowing just two hits. Mike Trout may miss this game, which would be a huge loss obviously. But either way, we see value with the Angels at this price. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-29-15 | Cincinnati Reds +160 v. St. Louis Cardinals | 1-0 | Win | 160 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #909 Cincinnati Reds over St. Louis Cardinals (8:15pm EST) We scored big with the Reds yesterday and will look to cash another ticket with them today. It's hard not to like the improvements that Anthony DeSclafani has made this season in Cincinnati. The young right-hander is gaining confidence in each start and has some elite skills that will keep him in the rotation for years to come. DeSclafani throws in the low to mid-90s and has a nice slider that has increased in velocity the more he has used it. The Cardinals lineup is solid, but unspectacular. They're missing Matt Adams and John Jay, but their depth has plugged the gaps with decent players. The Reds have the advantage offensively, they play better team defense, and they also have the edge in the 9th inning with Aroldis Chapman. This line should be about 10-15 cents lower than where it is now. Take Cincinnati at the underdog price. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-28-15 | Cincinnati Reds +143 v. St. Louis Cardinals | 4-0 | Win | 143 | 8 h 12 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #957 Cincinnati Reds over St. Louis Cardinals (8:15pm EST) This one is all about value, as everyone knows the Cardinals are a far superior team to the Reds. But Mike Leake is an underrated starting pitcher, and he's surprisingly been much better on the road during his career. St. Louis has Jaime Garcia coming off the disabled list for this one, and you never know how rusty a guy is going to be when that's the case. The Reds have a better lineup than the Cardinals without question. And if the game comes down to the ninth inning or later, give Cincinnati the edge there as well with Aroldis Chapman being as close to automatic as it gets. The line on this game should be roughly 10 cents lower, so we'll grab Cincinnati and put our confidence in Leake to do his usual on the road. |
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07-28-15 | Chicago White Sox v. Boston Red Sox -129 | Top | 9-4 | Loss | -129 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #966 Boston Red Sox over Chicago White Sox (7:10pm EST) Neither of these teams is going to be playing into October this season, but that doesn't mean we can't find some value in the matchup. From an offensive standpoint, the Red Sox are clearly the better of two teams. They've scored roughly 70 runs more than the White Sox on the season and have more proven bats in their lineup from top to bottom. It also appears that Adam LaRoche will miss tonight's game for Chicago due to personal issues. On the mound, Jeff Samardzija and Wade Miley will duel it out. Both pitchers have struggled this season, but Samardzija is slightly better in looking at the numbers overall. However, the White Sox have really struggled in 2015 against left-handers. In fact, they are batting just .226 against lefties with a .269 OBP. That gives Miley the nod, and we'll also give Boston the check mark when it comes down to the bullpens. Throw in defense, intangibles and home field advantage, and it's hard to understand why Boston isn't a bigger favorite today. The White Sox have won five straight games, but that's not something to put too much stock into on the baseball diamond. Take Boston here. |
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07-28-15 | Washington Nationals v. Miami Marlins -113 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #954 Miami Marlins over Washington Nationals (7:10pm EST) Since coming into the league in 2013, Jose Fernandez has been one of the best pitchers in baseball. When he's pitching at home, he's been the very best pitcher. At Marlins Park, Fernandez is an amazing 14-0 with a 1.17 ERA in his career. On Tuesday he'll look to extend his home streak against the Washington Nationals. If they were playing in any other division in baseball, the Nats would be fighting for their collective playoff lives, but luckily they reside in the National League East. This team has a lot of flaws that get overlooked, starting with their defense. No one in the National League plays defense worse than the Nats do, and it's cost them many games this season. The Nats also aren't playing with a full deck at the moment, with Ryan Zimmerman, Denard Span and Jayson Werth on the disabled list to name a few. That's putting a ton of pressure on Bryce Harper to continue to produce astronomical numbers. Luckily he has come through, but it's foolish to expect Harper to continue mashing like he has when pitchers can pitch around him now. Jordan Zimmermann toes the rubber for Washington in this game and he hasn't quite been himself this season. His numbers are certainly respectable, but his ERA is over 60 points higher than last season and he's striking out nearly 20% less batters. You won't find Fernandez this cheap at home very often. Take the Marlins. |
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07-27-15 | Colorado Rockies v. Chicago Cubs -162 | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #902 Chicago Cubs over Colorado Rockies (8:05pm EST) The Chicago Cubs were just swept by the lowly Philadelphia Phillies over the weekend. If that's not a wake-up call, I don't know what is. The Cubs had been in the driver's seat for the second wild card most of the season, but now find themselves 2.5 games behind the Giants. They'll need to get things turned around quickly if they want to stay in the race, and I think they will. Kyle Hendricks gets the ball for the Cubbies today and he's been sharp over the last month. In his last five starts, Hendricks has a miniscule 1.69 ERA and 0.91 WHIP to go along with a very strong 30-5 K-BB ratio. He's one of the better #4 starters in the league and probably deserves more attention than he gets. The Cubs offense has been sputtering a bit of late, but they have too many good hitters to stay down for long. They'll get left-hander Jorge De La Rosa of the Rockies on Monday night. De La Rosa has had a mediocre season overall with a 4.62 ERA in 16 starts. He hasn't been helped much by the defense behind him, which ranks near the bottom in all of baseball in defensive efficiency. That's certainly a strength for the Cubs, who are near the top of the defensive ranks. Both teams have had their problems in the bullpen this season, but the Cubs also get the check mark their because of their depth. All in all, the Cubs are the better team in nearly every category and are at home for this one. This price is a little bit bigger than we normally play, but Chicago is still the right side. |
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07-26-15 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Seattle Mariners +103 | 5-8 | Win | 103 | 5 h 56 m | Show | |
2-unit Play Take #978 Seattle Mariners over Toronto Blue Jays (4:10pm EST) After a very rough start to his 2015 campaign, Taijuan Walker has certainly figured things out. Over his last 10 starts, the young right-hander is 6-2 with a 3.53 ERA and an unthinkable 65-4 K-BB ratio. He's struggled a bit in the last few starts, but those were against the Tigers twice and the Angels - which are forgivable. Walker was one of the most highly touted young pitchers in baseball coming into this season, and I think we'll see him make even more strides down the stretch this season. He'll have his hands full with a tough Blue Jays lineup today, but they aren't as potent against right-handers. They've also sputtered on the road at times, so I think Seattle has a great shot to win this one as a home underdog. Veteran Mark Buehrle has posted some solid numbers this season, but as always, he's very hittable if you're patient at the plate. Seattle is playing better baseball of late, so I think they get the job done today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-23-15 | Milwaukee Brewers -132 v. Arizona Diamondbacks | 3-8 | Loss | -132 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #905 Milwaukee Brewers over Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40pm EST) The Milwaukee Brewers aren't giving up on the season despite a horrific start to the 2015 campaign. They are 17-7 over their last 24 games and are healthier than they have been all season long. Mike Fiers takes the bump for Milwaukee in this one and he's been their most steady starting pitcher this year. The deceptive right-hander owns 3.97 ERA and is striking out 8.9 batters per nine innings. He'll face a tough Arizona lineup today, but Fiers should have the advantage. The D-Backs haven't seen him since April 2013, and Fiers isn't an easy guy to pick up due to his unusual mechanics. As a result, he should pitch well the first time or two through the batting order. Arizona counters with rookie right-hander Zach Godley, who will be making the first start of his career. Godley wasn't all that impressive in the minor leagues in Double-A. He made three starts there and amassed a 5.14 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. Arizona may be rushing him a bit to see what they have, because he's never even pitched in Triple-A. The Cubs had Godley in their system and traded him away in the Miguel Montero deal in the offseason. Given that the Cubs don't have much top level pitching in their system, I wouldn't expect they'd give up Godley if they thought he was going to be a big league starter. The Brewers aren't an easy lineup to navigate in your first career start, so we could see a crooked number early on. Take the red hot Brewers to get the job done in this one. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-22-15 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Kansas City Royals -129 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 0 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #980 Kansas City Royals over Pittsburgh Pirates (8:10pm EST) We'll play Kansas City once again today after picking up the win yesterday 3-1 over Pittsburgh. The betting markets seem to have these teams rated fairly evenly, and I couldn't disagree more. The Royals play in a much tougher league and their numbers are better across the board in every category except for starting pitching. However, the pitching matchup in this one actually favors the Royals, as Edinson Volquez squares off against Charlie Morton. Volquez has fit in nicely in his first season in Kansas City, with an 8-5 record and 3.28 ERA in 19 starts. Having a superb defense behind him has surely boosted Volquez's confidence. Morton checks in with a 4.34 ERA despite pitching against a pretty weak schedule of opponents in his 10 starts. Should this game come down to the bullpens, the Royals surely have the advantage as they still have the best 7-8-9 combination in the late innings. Kansas City gets the money in this one. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-22-15 | Cleveland Indians v. Milwaukee Brewers -107 | 7-5 | Loss | -107 | 3 h 59 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #974 Milwaukee Brewers over Cleveland Indians (2:10pm EST) The 2015 season won't go down as a good one for the Milwaukee Brewers. But that doesn't mean that this team is giving up. The Brew Crew is 17-6 over its last 23 games, including a recent sweep of the streaking Pittsburgh Pirates. One of the reasons that Milwaukee is playing their best baseball of the season is that they are now 100% healthy. They endured injuries to several key players in the first half of the season and this isn't a deep team that can sustain that. Kyle Lohse takes the ball in this one as he looks to turn around his 2015 campaign. Lohse is 5-10 with a hefty 6.10 ERA, but his peripheral numbers aren't all that different from the last couple of seasons. He's been hampered by a terrible 64% strand rate and more of his fly balls are making it over the fence. Both of those metrics should regress towards the mean and we'll see improvement by Lohse as a result. His last game in Dodgers Stadium was encouraging as Lohse gave up only two runs while striking out six batters with no walks. The Cleveland Indians aren't necessarily having a banner season either. Expectations were high for Cleveland, but the offense hasn't been what the team had hoped for and the defense has been downright awful. Rookie Cody Anderson takes the hill for them today and he's been fantastic in his four starts. He carries a miniscule 0.89 ERA into today's game in 30.1 innings of work. But there's no way he can sustain anything remotely close to that with his low 3.3 strikeout rate per nine innings. That would be dead last in the majors if he maintained that ratio for the rest of the season. To his credit, he doesn't walk many. But you can't survive in the big leagues today with so few strikeouts. The Brewers have been swinging the sticks well of late, so I think they give Anderson the first thumping of his career. Take the Brewers at home today. |
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07-21-15 | Texas Rangers +113 v. Colorado Rockies | 9-0 | Win | 113 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #929 Texas Rangers over Colorado Rockies (8:40pm EST) If you're putting together a list of the worst starting pitchers in all of baseball, you'd have to put Kyle Kendrick near the top of the list. He comes into tonight's game at 3-10 with a 5.94 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 18 starts. Yes he pitches in Colorado, but Kendrick has been bad wherever he has thrown in 2015. He has a 5.52 ERA on the road, which includes plenty of pitcher's parks in the NL West. The only reason he still has a place in the rotation is because the Rockies just signed him in the offseason for $5.5 million. Tonight he'll face a dangerous Texas Rangers lineup, so this one could get really ugly really fast. The Rangers send left-hander Matt Harrison to the bump in his second start of the season. He was rusty in his first outing, but I expect him to pitch much better this time around. There's no way he's any worse than Kendrick, but that's how this game is getting priced by the betting market. Take Texas to get the job done. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-21-15 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Kansas City Royals +111 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 111 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #928 Kansas City Royals over Pittsburgh Pirates (8:10pm EST) It's not often you're going to see the American-league leading Royals as an underdog at home. Yes they're going up a tough pitcher in Gerrit Cole, but nobody has performed better against ace pitchers than the Royals have this season. They make a ton of contact and are rarely dominated via the strikeout. The Pirates are certainly a good baseball team, but one thing to point out about them is their weak schedule to this point. They've played one of the softest schedules in all of baseball to this point, and now will face an extremely tough schedule the rest of the way. The Royals send Jason Vargas to the hill in this one, who is mediocre at best. But Kansas City doesn't win games because of their starting pitching. It's their offense, bullpen and defense and really carries the load. Take Kansas City. |
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07-20-15 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Kansas City Royals -123 | Top | 10-7 | Loss | -123 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #968 Kansas City Royals over Pittsburgh Pirates (8:10pm EST) The Kansas City Royals host the Pittsburgh Pirates in the opener of a series that should be very entertaining. These two teams play similar brands of baseball, despite playing in different leagues. It's just that the Royals do it a little bit better than the Pirates do. Kansas City has the best record in the American League - five games better than the next closest team. That's impressive given how tough the league is this season without any really bad teams (Seattle at 42-50 has the worst record). The Royals have made their bettors nearly 20 units of profit this season, which is tops in all of baseball. Given that their starting rotation is mediocre at best, they don't attract as much money in the betting markets as some of the other top teams. That case applies to tonight's matchup, as Yordano Ventura pitches for the Royals against A.J. Burnett of the Pirates. Burnett is clearly having the much better season, but there are eight other guys on the field. Ventura has one of the best defenses in all of baseball behind him and an even better bullpen to close things out. Kansas City has also made major strides offensively this season, providing a lot more power than a season ago. The Pirates have been inconsistent at the dish, and it's worth noting they they've played one of the softest schedules up to this point. Put it all together, and the Royals are the superior team and should get a W in this one. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-19-15 | Chicago Cubs -148 v. Atlanta Braves | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #913 Chicago Cubs over Atlanta Braves (5:05pm EST) The Chicago Cubs have finally arrived and there's still room on the bandwagon before the betting markets fully adjust. The Cubs have one of the youngest teams in the big leagues and they are getting better every day. I expect a big second half from this squad, assuming the offense can become a bit more consistent. The starting rotation has been the strong point of this squad and today's starter Jake Arrieta certainly has played a big role in that capacity. Arrieta is probably a top five starter in the National League, but he doesn't always get priced that way. The right-hander is 10-5 with a 2.66 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 18 starts this season. One of the least talked about aspects of this Cubs team is their outstanding defense, which ranks tops in baseball as far as efficiency. That makes their pitchers even better and gives them a huge extra edge on the diamond. I wouldn't be surprised to see this Atlanta Braves team fall apart in the second half of the season. They exceeded expectations in the first half, but they can't expect to get the same kind of production from guys like Cameron Maybin and Kelly Johnson. The same can be said of today's starting pitcher Shelby Miller. He enters today's game with a 2.38 ERA, but his peripheral numbers point to an ERA in the mid-3's at best. The patient Cubs lineup should be able to get some good swings on Miller in this one. The Cubs are the better team in every facet, including in the starting pitcher matchup. And one final note, the Braves are missing their best player in Freddie Freeman, who is currently on the disabled list with a wrist injury. Take the Cubs to get the job done as our Game. |
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07-19-15 | Tampa Bay Rays -105 v. Toronto Blue Jays | 0-4 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 52 m | Show | |
5-unit Play Take #917 Tampa Bay Rays over Toronto Blue Jays (1:05pm EST) We played the Tampa Bay Rays yesterday and they cashed a ticket for us as a sizable underdog. We'll go back there today as Tampa sends their ace Chris Archer to the mound. No pitcher has taken a bigger step forward than Archer has this season, as he's probably the frontrunner in the AL Cy Young race at the moment. Archer is 9-6 with a 2.74 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 19 starts. What's more impressive is his 10.9 strikeout rate per nine innings, which is amongst the league leaders. The Blue Jays have the best lineup in baseball, but they don't hit right-handers nearly as well as they do lefties. Archer has faced Toronto three times this season and Tampa has won all three meetings. Archer's ERA in those games - a miniscule 0.41 in 22 innings of work. It just doesn't get much better than that, so it's safe to say that Archer owns the Blue Jays. Marco Estrada takes the ball for Toronto and he's certainly proven to be hittable against almost everyone. He was strong in the pen for the Jays early on this season, but as a starter he is mediocre at best. The Rays are the better overall team and should be bigger favorites in this game. Take Tampa Bay. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-18-15 | Tampa Bay Rays +132 v. Toronto Blue Jays | 3-2 | Win | 132 | 2 h 36 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #967 Tampa Bay Rays over Toronto Blue Jays (1:05pm EST) Good matchup here between a team that is undervalued against one that is overvalued. The Tampa Bay Rays continue to get no respect. Despite hanging around in the AL East race all season long, no one thinks that the Rays have a chance to actually win yet. They've been ravaged by injuries all season, particularly in their starting rotation. But they keep plugging guys in and competing on a nightly basis. The Jays have gotten plenty of attention with their high-octane offense in 2015. They lead baseball in runs scored by a hefty margin, and have several big bats that can do damage. But the fact of the matter is the Rays have the exact same record as the Jays at 46-46. When you break down the strengths and weaknesses, I give Tampa Bay a slight edge overall. The pitching matchup certainly favors Tampa in this one with Erasmo Ramirez going up against R.A. Dickey, so the value is on the underdog. Take Tampa Bay here. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-17-15 | New York Mets +115 v. St. Louis Cardinals | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
2-unit Play Take #909 New York Mets over St. Louis Cardinals (8:15pm EST) We'll continue to take Noah Syndergaard at these plus prices until he starts getting the respect he deserves. Syndergaard is quickly developing into one of the most intimidating pitchers in baseball at the ripe old age of 22. In 2015, he's 4-4 with a 3.11 ERA and 1.11 WHIP to go along with a strong 9.7 strikeout rate per nine innings. The scary part is that Syndergaard is still learning and is getting better and better in each start. The Cardinals welcome Matt Holliday back to the lineup for this game, but they are still missing Matt Adams and Jon Jay. St. Louis is one of the teams that overachieved the most in the first half, and I don't think they will cruise as easily as they have been. They certainly can't continue to prevent runs at the rate that they have been. Yes they have a solid rotation and a good bullpen, but nearly everyone on their staff is having an above average season. Lance Lynn is one of those guys as he enters this contest with a 2.90 ERA in 16 starts. Lynn, however, has been fighting through injuries and hasn't been as sharp of late. The Mets don't have a great lineup, but I think they get just enough runs to get Syndergaard the support he needs. Take New York. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-17-15 | Los Angeles Dodgers +105 v. Washington Nationals | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #903 Los Angeles Dodgers over Washington Nationals (7:05pm EST) The second half officially begins and there's no better way to start it than with the best team in the National League at a great underdog price. The Los Angeles Dodgers don't have the best record in the league, but this is the most complete squad in the NL. They have the best hitting on a park-adjusted basis, a very good defense, and one of the best bullpens around. Today's starter Mike Bolsinger has also done an excellent job filling in for the injured Hyun-Jin Ryu this season. In 13 starts, Bolsinger owns a nice 3.08 ERA and he has earned every bit of it. The 27-year old right-hander is striking out 8.5 batters per game and is inducing groundballs 59% of the time. He'll face a banged up Washington Nationals lineup that will be without Anthony Rendon, Ryan Zimmermann and Denard Span today. Those are three key pieces to the Nats' success and it means that even more pressure will be placed on Bryce Harper. There's no question that Harper is the first half NL MVP, but he's not going to get a ton of pitches to hit until this team is healthy. Jordan Zimmermann toes the rubber for Washington and he hasn't been as sharp as usual this season. His ERA is 60 points higher than last season and all of his peripherals have taken a hit - especially his strikeout rate. Zim is striking out only 6.5 batters per nine innings in 2015, which is nearly 25% lower than his 8.2 mark last season. He's not the same pitcher and could be fighting through an injury issue that isn't public yet. There's value with the Dodgers today and we expect them to pull out the win to start the second half out on the right foot. |
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