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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-09-12 | Cincinnati Reds v. Milwaukee Brewers -105 | 2-1 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 22 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #902 Milwaukee Brewers (-110) over Cincinnati Reds (1:10pm ET) The Milwaukee Brewers pounded the Cincinnati Reds 8-3 last night and the two teams are right back at it again this afternoon for the rubber game of the series. Zack Greinke starts for the Brewers and he has been unbelievable in Miller Park ever since he joined the Brewers. There are no sure things in sports, but Greinke at home is as close as it gets. Since he joined the team, the Brewers are 20-0 with Greinke on the mound. That's not a typo - the Brewers have won 20 straight when Greinke starts in Miller Park. So far this season Greinke has a 1.80 ERA at home and a 7.20 ERA on the road. Last year wasn't as extreme but he still had one of the biggest splits in the league. Greinke has had some anxiety issues in the past and it's clear that he's a much more comfortable pitcher at home and it leads to better results. The linesmakers aren't factoring this into the line and we'll take advantage of that today.
The Reds counter with Johnny Cueto in today's game. Cueto comes in with a sparking 1.31 ERA and 4-0 record but his numbers are a little bit deceiving. The 26-year old right-hander has been extremely fortunate in giving up a lot fewer long balls than usual as his fly ball rate is a lot higher than it was for him last season. His strikeouts are also down from last season and he doesn't look quite as sharp as he was during certain stretches of last year. The Reds offense has also ben sputtering and is only ranked 9th in the National League, down from 2nd last year. Milwaukee has also had some issues scoring runs at times as well, but they shouldn't need many today with Greinke taking the ball. I usually don't focus much on trends, but when you see a 20-0 run it's hard to ignore it. Take the Brewers at an extremely small price as they look to keep this impressive streak alive. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-08-12 | St.Louis Cardinals +117 v. Arizona Diamondbacks | 6-1 | Win | 117 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
9-unit Play Take #961 St. Louis Cardinals over Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40pm ET) The St. Louis Cardinals look to strike again in the second game of the series versus the Arizona Diamondbacks. Last night the Cardinals jumped out to a 7-0 lead against the Diamondbacks and held on for a 9-6 win. The Cardinals haven't missed a beat so far after losing franchise player Albert Pujols in the offseason. In fact, they have the best run differential in the major leagues at +65 runs and are arguably the best overall team in baseball. The offense is even more potent than it was last season as they're averaging 5.43 runs per game compared to 4.70 last year. It's definitely the most balanced lineup in the National League and they've even been without Lance Berkman for most of the season. The Cardinals have also been treated to great performances by their starting pitchers so far and Jake Westbrook certainly is one of them. Westbrook came into camp this year looking like a man on a mission. He lost 20 pounds in the offseason and it definitely helped him on the mound as he's off to one of the best starts of his career. Westbrook carries a 2.12 ERA into this contest and he has cut his walk rate down by nearly 40% from last season. He's going to deeper into games as well and that's taken some of the pressure off the bullpen.
The Diamondbacks have been hovering around the .500 mark all season and clearly haven't been able to sneak up on anyone like they did last year. The offense hasn't seemed to click yet and a big reason is the struggles of Justin Upton, who is batting .234 on the season so far with only three home runs. Chris Young is also still on the disabled list and he was having the best April of his career when he was shelved. Tonight's starter for Arizona is Ian Kennedy. The 28-year old right-hander put up a career year last season going 21-4 with a 2.88 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. That's a hard act to follow up and he's understandably falling a little short of those numbers so far in 2012. However, the biggest concern for Kennedy in the early season is that his velocity is down considerably from last season. It's possible that he might be nursing some kind of injury that hasn't been disclosed because he shouldn't be dropping off at this stage of his career. If that's the case, then Kennedy should be a good fade for a while, especially with the D-Backs offense not producing. Going up against possibly the best team in baseball who has a red hot pitcher is a tall task and I don't like Arizona's chances the way they're playing. The Cardinals are the underdogs here and I'll gladly scoop up that price every time. |
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05-08-12 | Texas Rangers v. Baltimore Orioles +116 | 10-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #968 Baltimore Orioles (+115) over Texas Rangers (7:05pm ET) The linesmakers and betting public still isn't buying the Baltimore Orioles yet. At 19-10 the O's are sitting atop the American League East division and have the second best run differential in the American League at +23 runs. And it's not like they've played a weak schedule so far as they've faced the Yankees and Blue Jays two different times and have also played the Red Sox. The Orioles are for real and they're going to be in the thick of things for quite some time. They have a good offense, underrated starting pitching and an unbelievable bullpen. One of those underrated starting pitchers is Jake Arrieta, who takes the ball tonight. The young right-hander is developing into a fine pitcher in his third season in the majors putting up a 3.52 ERA so far in 2012. He's increased his strikeout rate and has cut his walks by more than half from the last two years. Arrieta is also coming off the best performance of his career when he dominated the Yankees in Yankee Stadium throwing eight shutout innings while striking out nine and walking none. He'll go from facing one difficult lineup to another as he goes up against the Texas Rangers tonight. At least for this one, he'll be at home.
The Rangers have been the best team in the American League so far after getting off to a red hot start in the season's first two weeks. They've cooled off since then as they're only 4-6 in the last 10 games. However, due to their hot start, the market is still valuing them a little too high. Today they send a struggling Neftali Feliz to the hill. Feliz comes in with a 3.81 ERA but has very poor peripheral numbers that will eventually catch up with him. He's walking 4.9 batters per nine innings while only striking out 6.2 per nine. That ratio is extremely dangerous. He also has had a very fortunate .194 batting average on balls on play when the league average is almost 100 points higher. Most of that is due to random luck and will even out as the season goes along. Bottom line, Feliz is a pitcher whose ERA should be closer to 5 instead of in the 3's. The Orioles have a lot of heavy hitters in the lineup and that should bode well as Feliz has given up four gopher balls in his last four starts. Take the Orioles as home underdogs in a game that they win at least 50% of the time, giving us great value. |
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05-07-12 | Boston Red Sox -114 v. Kansas City Royals | 11-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #919 Boston Red Sox over Kansas City Royals (8:10pm ET) It hasn't been a pleasant season for the Boston Red Sox so far. They've faced a multitude of injuries, have watched their pitching staff get torn to shreds and have questioned the hiring of manager Bobby Valentine. Things looked like they were starting to get back on track for them when they reached .500 at 11-11. However, they've dropped five straight since then including getting swept at home by the Orioles. I didn't think this team was going to be as good as most did before the season, but I also know that they're not going to be this bad all year. One of the nice surprises for this team so far has been Felix Doubront. The 24-year old left-hander won a spot in the rotation this spring and hasn't disappointed. He only has a 5.19 ERA on the season, but his underlying statistics tell a completely different story. Doubront has struck out 10.4 batters per nine innings but has had a little bit of bad luck on the amount of batted balls that have fallen for hits against him. He should have an ERA in the mid-3's which gives us a nice opportunity to play him today against a Royals team is struggling at the plate.
Jonathan Sanchez takes the ball for Kansas City today and when he's on the mound, nobody knows what to expect. Sanchez is a talented pitcher who has been a mystery for his entire career, but this year he's taken it to new levels in his first year in Kansas City. Sanchez's strike out rate is down over 30% this season to only 6.0 batters per nine innings while his walk rate has climbed to 7.7 per nine. He's lost any semblance of control that he had before and hasn't completed more than five innings in any of his five starts this season. His velocity is also down and the Royals have acknowledged that they are working with Sanchez on improving some of his mechanics. That's not a good sign when a starting pitcher is tinkering with his mechanics during the season and the results have shown it as he's put up a 5.24 ERA. The Red Sox are missing some key players offensively, but they still have Pedroia, Gonzalez and Ortiz in the middle of that lineup and those guys feast off of weak pitchers. The Royals are also only 2-12 at home this season. The Red Sox should break their streak tonight and put a win on the board against Sanchez and the hapless Royals. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-07-12 | Atlanta: T Hanson v. Chicago (N): Samardzija +115 | 1-5 | Win | 115 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #906 Chicago Cubs over Atlanta Braves (8:05pm ET) It's going to be a long season for the Chicago Cubs. Their offense is going to struggle to score runs, their bullpen will falter often and there will be bumps in the road for a lot of their young guys. However, one of the bright spots on this team is starting pitcher Jeff Samardzija. Converted from the bullpen during the spring, Samardzija has relished his new role and is dominating National League hitters. He is 3-1 with a 3.41 ERA and is striking out 9.1 batters per nine innings. He throws really hard, has an amazing arsenal of pitches and is getting more comfortable on the mound in each start. His biggest improvement from when he was a reliever is that his control is much improved as he's cut his walk rate in half. He's just starting to get some attention, but at the moment is an undervalued commodity in the baseball marketplace.
The Atlanta Braves come into Chicago today and oppose the Cubs with right-hander Tommy Hanson. Hanson doesn't quite look like the same pitcher as last season after his shoulder injury at the end of last season. He's lost some velocity on his fastball and had to change his mechanics a bit to compensate. His strikeout rate is down and his walk rate is up, resulting in a 3.74 ERA which is about a half run higher than where he's been in his career. Hanson is still a good pitcher, but I don't think he's All-Star caliber anymore and the market seems to think that he is. The Braves are definitely a better team than the Cubs in almost all areas, but starting pitching is the great equalizer in baseball and the Cubs have the much better one right now. Samardzija is developing into an ace and I don't think you'll see him as an underdog at home too often after everyone else figures out just how good this kid is. |
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05-06-12 | Miami: R Nolasco v. San Diego: J Wieland +114 | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 6 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #962 San Diego Padres over Miami Marlins (4:05pm ET) With about one month in the books, this is the time of the season to really start focusing on who some of the overvalued and undervalued teams are based on the underlying statistics. How these teams are viewed in the marketplace has a direct impact on the money lines, and some of these lines get a little bit too skewed based on the relatively small sample of games that has been played. One team that has seemingly been disregarded due to their poor record is the San Diego Padres. At 9-19 in the cellar of the National League West, the market seems to have labeled this team as one of the worst in baseball. However, the Padres have had a little bit of bad luck in more ways than one this season. First of all, they've dealt with a handful of injuries that has forced them to shuffle their lineup a bit early on. Guys are finally getting comfortable with their roles and I think they'll be better for these injuries in the long run. In addition, the Padres have struggled in close games and extra inning games. Even with their current numbers, they should have a few more wins if they just had average luck. I'm not saying that San Diego is a playoff team, but they are better than what most people think.
One team that has continuously been overvalued this season is the Miami Marlins. There was a ton of hype for the Marlins coming into the 2012 season based on their acquisitions of Reyes, Buehrle and Bell, new manager Ozzie Guillen and the new ballpark. People expected them to compete for a division title so the lines reflected that. They're 13-14 currently, but have actually outperformed their underlying statistics and shouldn't even have that many wins. The linesmakers are still valuing them as a 90-win team and this team just isn't that good. Today's matchup is a great example as the Marlins should not be favored in San Diego today with the pitching matchup of Ricky Nolasco and Joe Wieland. I have both pitchers rated very similarly with no big edge either way. San Diego has the better bullpen and the Marlins offense is really not much better than the Padres once you factor in the park effects of playing in Petco. Bottom line, San Diego should be favored today but the public thinks that the Marlins will turn things around at that San Diego is one of the worst teams in baseball. Neither is true so we'll take advantage and take the value with the Padres today. |
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05-04-12 | Minnesota Twins v. Seattle Mariners -135 | 3-2 | Loss | -135 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #980 Seattle Mariners over Minnesota Twins (10:10pm ET) The Seattle Mariners host the Minnesota Twins to start off a three-game series tonight. The Twins come in with the worst record in baseball at 6-18 and haven't done anything well. Their starting pitching has struggled mightily with a whopping 7.06 ERA, they're 13th in the American League in runs scored and they haven't played the field that well defensively. All that has led to a -50 runs differential, the biggest deficit in baseball. The Twins are obviously in the rebuilding mode, although they really don't have a lot of young players to build around. With 138 games still left to be played, it's going to be a long season for Minnesota and its fans. Carl Pavano takes the ball today for the Twins and he hasn't been the same pitcher that he was back in 2010 when he was a legitimate ace for a good club. He has a 4.91 ERA in 2012 but what's more troubling is that his velocity is way down from the last couple of seasons. His fastball used to average right around 90mph but has been barely above 86mph this season. That's a huge drop off that usually leads to destruction for aging pitchers. Pavano is 36-years old and his career is probably a lot closer to being over than even he may realize.
Seattle is also in rebuilding mode with their team, but they're doing it the right way. They have plenty of young talent in Jesus Montero, Dustin Ackley and Justin Smoak to name a few. They have helped Seattle improve their offense from easily the worst in the American League last season to 9th in the league in 2012. That's a pretty big jump in one season and I think this team will improve as the season moves along and some of their younger players get more at bats. Today's starter for the M's is Jason Vargas. The 29-year old left-hander looks like he might finally be coming into his own this season. He comes in with a 3.38 ERA but that's even more impressive when you see that five of his six starts have been on the road this season. His strikeout numbers are up, his stuff looks better and I think this will be a career year for Vargas. The Twins have dropped 9 of 10 and things are pretty dire at the moment. They're 3-10 on the road this season and they could be without Justin Morneau tonight who is nursing a wrist injury. Seattle is better than Minnesota in every area and I think they'll take this one tonight. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-04-12 | Chicago (A): J Peavy v. Detroit: D Smyly -107 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #968 Detroit Tigers over Chicago White Sox (7:05pm ET) There's no question that the Detroit Tigers have let their fans down so far in 2012. Almost everyone had pegged the Tigers to run away and hide in the American League Central division after adding Prince Fielder to a team that already won 95 games last year. However, the Tigers started out very slow last season at 12-17 before things started to click. This team is extremely talented and is going to eventually get things going this year too - I have no doubt. One of the few bright spots on the team so far this season has been rookie Drew Smyly. The 22-year old left-hander has dominated the American League in his first four starts of his career with a 1.23 ERA and 22 strikeouts in 22 innings. He has great mound presence and should be a fixture in the Detroit rotation for years to come. This will be the first time the White Sox have seen him, which should give Smyly the leg up for at least the first couple of times through the batting order.
The White Sox counter with Jake Peavy, who has put together a very nice season of his own so far. He's 3-1 with a 1.67 ERA and has seemed to regain his old form that he had with the Padres. However, the Tigers did face him a few weeks back when these teams met in Chicago and that should be helpful for Detroit hitters. Teams that face the same starter twice in a short period of time generally perform a little bit better as they can adjust to his stuff quicker. The White Sox are only averaging 4.00 runs per game on the season and they are going to struggle to plate runs all year. They have a lot of holes in the lineup and rely far too heavily on Paul Konerko, who is a streaky hitter in his own right. The Tigers have had their struggles at the plate as well this season, but that's more of an aberration that anything else as they have two studs in the middle of the lineup and some pretty good supporting cast members. With the much better offense, a strong home field advantage and a draw as far as starting pitchers go, the Tigers have the edge in this matchup. |
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05-03-12 | New York Yankees -130 v. Kansas City Royals | 3-4 | Loss | -130 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
5-unit Play Take #915 NY Yankees over Kansas City Royals (8:10pm ET) The New York Yankees head to Kansas City to take on the Royals in the first of a four-game set tonight. The Yankees definitely have a bad taste in their mouths after losing two out of three games to the Orioles at home. They scored a grand total of two runs in the entire series and I'm sure that was on their minds as they flew into Kansas City last night. Tonight they'll get a chance to redeem themselves in what looks to be a favorable matchup for them offensively. They will be facing southpaw pitcher Danny Duffy. Duffy started off the season strong with a 3.63 ERA in his first three outings. However, he had some elbow problems that caused him to miss his last scheduled start. He says that he is fine but the Yankees aren't the kind of lineup that you want to test out an injured elbow against. On top of that, the Yankees absolutely brutalize left-handed pitching. Last year they were tops in all of baseball against lefties and they have virtually the same lineup this season.
The Royals will be facing an unfamiliar foe today in New York starter David Phelps. The 25-year old rookie is making his first start of his career after making six appearances out of the pen previously. The Yankees thought enough of him to place him into the rotation after seeing his great stuff do wonders in long relief. He'll be facing a Royals lineup that is 12th in the American League in runs scored so it will be a nice way for Phelps to settle into his first major league start. Since Kansas City has never seen him, he should have the leg up early in the game. All Phelps has to do is keep the Yankees in the game as they have a huge edge in the bullpen department. The Yankees have arguably the best pen in the game and have a 2.03 ERA on the 2012 season. The Royals have had a couple of key injuries in their pen and have managed to hold it together in the meantime, but there's nobody out there that scares anybody. This is about as low a price as you'll probably see for the Yankees against the Royals, so I think it provides some great value as our Game of the Day today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-02-12 | Cleveland Indians +120 v. Chicago White Sox | 6-3 | Win | 120 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #977 Cleveland Indians over Chicago White Sox (8:10pm ET) Looks like we may have another case of the wrong team being favored in tonight's game between the Cleveland Indians and Chicago White Sox. After throwing the 21st perfect game in major league baseball history, Phil Humber was shelled in his last start against the Red Sox. He surrendered eight hits, nine runs (all earned) and walked three in his five innings of work. That is generally the case, as pitchers going to the mound after throwing a perfect game or no-hitter will struggle in their subsequent starts. It's something physiological and it takes a while before they return to their normal form. The fact that Humber is relatively fresh off of his perfect game is also inflating the line on this game a bit too. Humber didn't all of a sudden turn into a better pitcher, so no need to upgrade our rating on him.
The Indians counter with a better starting pitcher in Josh Tomlin tonight. Tomlin is a soft-tosser with extremely good control. It's big new when he walks a batter as he only had 21 in 165 innings last season. The White Sox struggle against these type of pitchers because they don't have much discipline and are very aggressive at the plate. I'm also not convinced that the White Sox lineup is good enough to keep this team around .500 all year. There are plenty of holes in the lineup and Paul Konerko can't put the entire team on his shoulders all season long. The Indians have a much more balanced attack and nearly everyone is young and improving. Take the Tribe to get the victory tonight on the Southside. |
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05-01-12 | Philadelphia Phillies +112 v. Atlanta Braves | 4-2 | Win | 112 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
10-unit Play Take #905 Philadelphia Phillies over Atlanta Braves (7:10pm ET) We have one of the hottest starting pitchers in baseball going today and he's the underdog in this matchup. Cole Hamels and the Philadelphia Phillies are coming to Atlanta to play the Braves in the first of a three game set. There isn't anyone in the major leagues pitching much better than Hamels at this point in the season. The 28-year old left-hander is 3-1 with a 2.73 ERA and 1.03 WHIP on the young season. What's more impressive though is his strikeout and walk totals in his four starts. He's struck out 37 batters while only walking a total of three. He's been dominating with pinpoint control and that's a scary combination. He's needed to pitch better this season because the Phillies offense has struggled to put runs on the board. However, they have shown some signs of breaking out of their slump lately, as they're average 4.71 runs per game over the last seven contests.
The Braves send another pitcher to the mound who has been throwing the ball well in Brandon Beachy. The right-hander has put up stellar numbers with a 1.05 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in his four starts. However, there are some indicators that he might not be pitching as well as he did last year when he had a 3.68 ERA. His strikeouts per nine innings is down over 30% and he's gotten lucky on the number of balls in play that have dropped for hits. He's still a very good pitcher, but nowhere close to the Cole Hamels level. Another big advantage that Hamels will have today is that he's a southpaw. The Braves normal lineup is stacked with left-handers and they obviously don't hit lefties as well as other teams do because of it. The Phillies offense shouldn't need to put too many on the board today as Hamels should cruise in this one. You won't find pitchers as hot as Hamels as underdogs very often, so take advantage and play Philadelphia today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-28-12 | Tampa Bay: J Niemann v. Texas: C Lewis -159 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #980 Texas Rangers (-155) over Tampa Bay Rays (8:05pm ET) The Texas Rangers have been on an absolute mission this season at 15-5 in their first 20 games. Everything has clicked as the starting pitching has been sensational, the hitting has been superb and the bullpen rock solid. The Rangers own the biggest run differential in the league at +51 runs and no one in the American League is close. Colby Lewis takes the ball today and he's probably the hottest Texas starter right now. In his first four starts, Lewis is 2-0 with a 2.03 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. He's increased his strikeout rate, but more importantly has only walked one batter in 26 2/3 innings on the season. With that kind of control and a great strikeout rate, you don't get yourself into too many jams.
The Tampa Bay Rays counter with right-hander Jeff Niemann today. Niemann is a solid #5 starter and does everything asked of him by Joe Maddon. He's not going to go out there and dominate the opposition but is generally able to keep his team in the game. That's usually good enough, but when you're facing the hottest team in all of baseball in their home stadium, you need a dominant performance to win the game. The Rays haven't been on a very good team on the road historically and Arlington is a very tough place to play. They got a win against the Rangers last night, but that was with their ace James Shields pitching. I don't think Niemann has good enough stuff to slow down a Ranger offense that is tearing the cover off the ball right now. Add that to the dominance of Lewis lately and I see a game where the line should be close to -200. With the line at only -155 I see some good value on the Rangers tonight. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-28-12 | Detroit: D Smyly v. New York (A): F Garcia -117 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -117 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #972 New York Yankees over Detroit Tigers (4:05pm ET) The New York Yankees look to take another one from the Detroit Tigers this afternoon in the Bronx. Last night the Yankees roughed up ace Justin Verlander and scored a couple of late runs against the Tigers bullpen to get the victory 7-6. Today the Yankees will get a much easier test in rookie Drew Smyly. The young left-hander has made a statement in his first three starts with a 1.13 ERA in his 16 innings pitched. However, he did find himself in some trouble in each of his starts but was able to avoid disaster by pitching well with runners on base. Eventually that will catch up with him and the Yankees lineup will put him to the test today. The Yanks hit left-handers very well and they are patient enough to take what Smyly gives them. Yankee Stadium is a tough place to pitch and being a rookie, I'm sure Smyly will have some jitters early on.
The Tigers have been in absolute funk dropping five straight and seven of their last eight games. Their starting pitching has been bad and the bullpen certainly hasn't done them any favors. Offensively they've gotten plenty of chances, but just haven't been able to cash in with runners on base. Several Tiger hitters are mired in a slump. Going into Yankees Stadium and getting a win is tough, but when you're already scuffling it's even harder. Freddy Garcia pitches for New York today and although his ERA is sky-high at 11+, his peripheral numbers are good and you know exactly what you'll get from the veteran. He'll keep the Yankees in it and put in enough innings to turn it over to the back end of the bullpen. With Detroit struggling and a rookie on the mound in Yankee Stadium, I like New York to get a win. |
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04-27-12 | Boston Red Sox -107 v. Chicago White Sox | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #927 Boston Red Sox over Chicago White Sox (8:10pm ET) The Boston Red Sox are starting to heat up. After a miserable 4-10 start to the season, the Red Sox have won four straight games and Bobby Valentine is off the proverbial hot seat for the meantime. The bullpen really struggled to start the season and was the biggest reason for the team's slow start. Over the last four games that has changed as the pen has only allowed one run in 11 2/3 innings pitched. Daniel Bard was one of the arms in the pen that helped out, but that was only temporary as he's on the mound to start again tonight against the Chicago White Sox. Bard was in the bullpen for the entire 2011 season and did so well that the Red Sox made him a starter this season and he's pitched well so far. He has had a little bit of a problem with walks, but I think he's going to get more comfortable as a starter as time goes on and learn how to harness his pitches and be more efficient. The White Sox are a good team to get some experience against as they've struggled to put runs on the board at times this season.
Chicago is averaging 4.17 runs per game but consistency has been their biggest issue so far. When they score less than four runs, the White Sox are 0-7 and when they score four runs or more they are 10-2. They have some free swingers in their lineup, so it's likely that they'll see some uneven results all season long. John Danks pitches for Chicago today and he hasn't looked like himself yet this season. He comes in with a 5.11 ERA and he's thrown a lot more balls outside of the strike zone than he normally does. I'm not sure if it's mechanical or if there's a possibly underlying injury, but Danks doesn't look very good and he's facing a BoSox lineup that can absolutely bury you if you're not right. The Red Sox are averaging 5.53 runs per game despite missing key guys with injuries in each game. That just speaks to their depth and balance in the lineup, as there are a handful of guys that can really do some damage. With Boston on a roll and Danks struggling, it's going to be hard for the White Sox to get a lead in this game and hold onto it. Take Boston to keep things moving along and add another win to their streak. |
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04-26-12 | TOR B-JAYS v. Baltimore Orioles +109 | 2-5 | Win | 109 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #962 Baltimore Orioles over Toronto Blue Jays (7:05pm ET) The Baltimore Orioles haven't been getting any respect despite a good start to the season. At 11-7, the O's are sitting in first place in the American League East and have been one of the pleasant surprises in baseball so far. They obviously aren't going to stay in first place in the toughest division in baseball all season, but I think this team has some decent talent and has proven to me that they can compete and maybe stay around .500 for awhile. A lot of their success has been attributed to some great starting pitching, something they have lacked for the last decade or so. Today's starter Brian Matusz has actually gotten off to a bit of a rocky start at 0-3 with a 7.98 ERA, but he's also faced the Yankees, Blue Jays and Angels, two of which were on the road. He's a very talented pitcher that has shown flashes of greatness but hasn't put it all together yet. He's going to need a strong performance tonight to stay in the rotation as Baltimore has some arms in the minor leagues that can step in if he continues to struggle. He'll face a Toronto lineup that he saw last week and I think he'll make the necessary adjustments to put together a solid six innings of work today.
The Blue Jays go with rookie right-hander Drew Hutchison tonight. Hutchison wasn't supposed to be up in the majors this quickly, but with injuries to the staff he has been brought into the mix. He looked a little shaky in his first start against a weak hitting Kansas City team last week, and tonight he'll face a Baltimore lineup that is very aggressive. The Orioles have an all-or-nothing type of approach at the plate and that sometimes leads to very big innings against weaker pitchers. The Orioles are going for the sweep today and I think they are still providing some good value with the market still not believing in their success. Matusz has started slow, but I don't his skill set has been factored into this line, thus there's value with the Orioles today. |
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04-25-12 | New York (A): P Hughes +118 v. Texas: S Feldman | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #927 New York Yankees over Texas Rangers (8:05pm ET) You won't find the Yankees as a solid underdog against a spot starter very often, but tonight that exact opportunity presents itself. Due to a rain out over the weekend, the Rangers are sending Scott Feldman to the mound today to fill in. Feldman has started before and was a part of the Rangers rotation from 2008 to 2010. However, there's a reason that he's no longer in that rotation and that's because his career ERA is 4.74. Tonight he'll be facing a Yankees lineup that will be chomping at the bit after getting shutout yesterday by Yu Darvish. The Yankees don't get shut down very often and they usually bounce back strong after a performance like that, which will increase on the pressure on Feldman even more tonight.
Phil Hughes goes for New York tonight and he hasn't been very good so far this season. In this three starts he's posted a whopping 6.75 ERA but he has shown some pretty good stuff. He's striking out 10.13 batters per nine innings and his mound presence is not bad. He's got some unlucky breaks on batted balls, so I expect him to turn it around today. He should be even more focused knowing that he could lose his spot in the rotation if he continues to slip up. Andy Pettitte is slated to be inserted into the Yankees rotation at some point in May and that means someone will be demoted to the bullpen or the minor leagues. Hughes has been there before and has stated clearly that he wants to be a starter. He'll have a challenge tonight with a very tough Texas lineup. However, I think the Rangers have been getting a little bit too much attention with their hot start and that is inflating this line. The Yankees offense is every bit as good as the Rangers and tonight they'll prove it. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-25-12 | Los Angeles Angels -106 v. Tampa Bay Rays | 2-3 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #925 Los Angeles Angels over Tampa Bay Rays (7:10pm ET) Today's matchup between the Los Angeles Angels and Tampa Bay Rays features two pitchers who are going in opposite directions. C.J. Wilson has a smile from ear to ear after signing a 5-year, $77.5 million contract with the Angels in the offseason. He finally made it big by putting together a couple of great seasons in Arlington with the Rangers after being converted from a relief pitcher. Now he has to deliver to earn that money and so far he's done a pretty good job going 2-1 with a 2.37 ERA in his first three starts. He fits in well with the other veterans in the Los Angeles clubhouse and I expect him to put together another fine season.
Jeremy Hellickson for the Rays, on the other hand, is a completely different story. Hellickson captured the American League Rookie of the Year award last season with a 13-10 record and 2.95 ERA. However, his numbers were a bit deceiving as his peripheral statistics weren't nearly good enough to support that ERA. As a result, some regression was expected this season and we're starting see that a bit this season. While Hellickson has still managed a 3.26 ERA, his strikeout rate has fallen and his walk rate has increased significantly. He's now averaging more walks per nine innings than strikeouts and that is a disaster waiting to happen. A good offensive team like the Angels should be patient enough to take advantage of Hellickson's struggles and I fully expect them to. The Angel bats have been a little quiet so far this season and a lot of that has to do with Albert Pujols who has yet to homer so far this season and only has four RBI in 17 games. Nobody has any doubt in their mind that Pujols will break out of his slump soon and tonight seems like a perfect night to do that. The Rays also have the second worst bullpen in baseball with a 7.49 ERA on the 2012 campaign. So if Hellickson gets in trouble, it's not likely that things are going to get any better for Tampa Bay. Take the Angels here as they have the better starting pitcher and bullpen, and an offense that is just waiting to explode. |
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04-25-12 | Philadelphia Phillies -101 v. Arizona Diamondbacks | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 54 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #907 Philadelphia Phillies over Arizona Diamondbacks (3:40pm ET) There's no question that the Philadelphia Phillies are a completely different team offensively without Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. They actually weren't all that impressive last year when they ranked 7th in the National League at 4.4 runs per game. This year, however, they are downright awful at 2.9 runs per game which ranks them 15th in the league ahead of only the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates. They're obviously not going to be quite this bad all year, but they've managed to stay in most ballgames due to their excellent starting pitching. Today they have one of the hottest pitchers in the league on the mound in Cole Hamels. The 28-year old lefty is in a contract year and he's certainly pitching like it. In his first three starts of the season, Hamels has baffled hitters with 23 strikeouts and only 2 walks in 18 1/3 innings. His ERA is at 2.95 currently but should be even lower based on his peripheral numbers. The way he's pitching right now you immediately think shutout when he takes the ball.
Despite their poor numbers on the season, the Phillies' bats have woke up a bit in this series as they have put 13 runs on the board in the first two games combined. Tonight they'll have the Diamondbacks' Trevor Cahill. Cahill came over from the A's in the offseason and while he's put up decent numbers thus far, he doesn't look 100% comfortable on the mound and his velocity is down from last season. Part of it might be adjusting to a new team and new league, so it might just take time for him to get comfortable. In the meantime, the Phillies can take advantage as they look to build some momentum offensively. If Hamels pitches like he has been, he should be able to go seven or eight innings in this game and eventually hand it to one of the best closers in the game - Jonathan Papelbon. The Phillies should only need to put a couple of runs on the scoreboard to take this one and I think they'll be able to do that off of Cahill. Take Philadelphia as our Game of the Day. |
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04-24-12 | Atlanta: M Minor -112 v. Los Angeles: A Harang | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #965 Atlanta Braves over Los Angeles Dodgers (10:10pm ET) Good matchup tonight as the Atlanta Braves look to avenge last night's loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers got the best of them yesterday 7-2 behind a solid pitching performance by Chris Capuano. Both the Braves and Dodgers have started the season on the right foot backed by solid starting pitching and some great offensive output. Atlanta leads the National League in runs scored and is average 5.47 runs per game. They have a well-balanced lineup with speed, power and contact hitters that put the ball in play. The Dodgers are fourth in the National League averaging 4.41 runs per game. However, their production has been largely due to the red hot starts by Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier. They don't have too many weapons in their lineup, so when one or both of their studs finally cools off, I think it's going to be difficult for the Dodgers to score runs consistently.
The man in charge of slowing down Kemp and Ethier tonight is left-hander Mike Minor. The 24-year old has started the season very nicely with a 3.10 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in winning two of his first three starts. He absolutely shut down a good Diamondbacks offense in his last outing pitching eight innings of five-hit ball while striking out nine and walking none. He's clearly reached a new level this year and I've upgraded him a couple of notches in my pitcher ratings. I like his chances to keep the Dodgers at bay as he can focus his efforts on the two guys who do most of the damage. The Dodgers send right-hander Aaron Harang to the hill to oppose the Braves. Harang was acquired in the offseason to help fill out the rotation and he's done alright in his first three starts, but he's almost 34 years old and isn't going to have the kind of results that he did a few years back in Cincinnati. He doesn't throw very hard anymore and relies on deception and craftiness to get by. He's going to have trouble fooling the best hitting team in the league, and I'd be surprised if he makes it past the sixth inning today. The Braves have the better starting pitcher today, the much better offense and a superior bullpen. With everything going for them, the Braves are the right side at an extremely small price. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-24-12 | Washington: G Gonzalez -119 v. San Diego: C Richard | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #963 Washington Nationals over San Diego Padres (10:05pm ET) The Washington Nationals begin a three game series in San Diego tonight as they take on the Padres.The Nats have been one of the most impressive teams in baseball so far this season with a 12-4 mark to start off the 2012 campaign. The driving force behind the quick start has definitely been the starting pitching. Coming into tonight's game, Washington's starters have a 1.82 ERA and hitters are batting a paltry .186 against them. One of the great pitchers in that group is southpaw Gio Gonzalez, who was acquired in the offseason from the Oakland A's. Gonzalez comes in with a 2.04 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and is averaging a whopping 10.70 strikeouts per nine innings. There's no question that he fits in well in D.C. and hasn't had any trouble adjusting to life in the National League. Right now he's in a groove and you don't want to get in his way.
Left-hander Clayton Richard will oppose the Nationals today. Richard has gotten off to a very slow start to the season with a 5.89 ERA and was torched in his last two outings for eight runs in each. Richard pitches to contact and this year opponents have hit the ball hard against him, including four home runs in his first three starts. The Nationals are looking for a spark on offense and facing a struggling pitcher might be exactly what they need. Richards has also had a tough time against Washington in his career, dropping his last four starts against them. Additionally, dating back to last season the Nationals have now won 14 of their last 17 road games. Tonight they'll be road warriors again as they should take down the Padres with a red hot starting pitcher in Gonzalez. |
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04-23-12 | SFO GIANTS GM1 -151 v. NY METS GM1 | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 3 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #921 San Francisco Giants over New York Mets (4:10pm ET) It's Game 1 of the doubleheader between the San Francisco Giants and New York Mets this afternoon. Tim Lincecum goes for the Giants today and he's had a difficult start to his season to say the least. He's posted a 10.54 ERA in his first three starts and his velocity is down significantly from last year. However, the market seems to be overreacting a bit on this one as Lincecum has still put up some great peripheral numbers striking out 10.54 batters per nine innings and walking only 2.63 batters per nine innings. He's given up an inordinate amount of hits on his balls in play, but that will come back down to earth. Lincecum is still an All-Star caliber pitcher and we'll see him step up with all of the doubters out there now. He's backed by a much improved offense from last year as well. The Giants were easily the worst offensive team in the National League last year and broke some records for futility in the process. This year they have Buster Posey back as well as some other key cogs, and they find themselves in the middle of the pack in offense now.
The Mets are a decent team that is stuck in really tough division, so they'll almost surely finish in the cellar in the National League East. While I think they'll be competitive, their starting pitcher for today's game doesn't belong in the big leagues. The 41-year old journeyman barely made the Mets roster this season and has been shoddy in relief so far putting up a 5.40 ERA and 2.20 WHIP in six appearances. He's only started six major league games since the start of 2009 and he likely will only be able to go about five innings today. That means the Mets will be relying on a struggling bullpen to keep them in the game today. New York has a bullpen ERA of 4.43 this season, which is good enough for 14th in the National League. It's going to be a tough Game 1 of the doubleheader for the Mets in today with the huge pitching disparity. Luckily for them, they'll get a second crack at it in the evening. Take San Francisco in Game 1 this afternoon. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-21-12 | Texas Rangers G1 v. Detroit Tigers G1 -103 | 10-4 | Loss | -103 | 3 h 12 m | Show | |
10-unit Play Take #970 Detroit Tigers over Texas Rangers (1:05pm ET) The Detroit Tigers' Rick Porcello is starting to grow up in front of our very own eyes. I know we're only a couple of weeks into the season, but Porcello is visibly a much better pitcher than he has been in his first few seasons of his career. He's still only 23 years old but has already logged 91 career starts in the major leagues and is gaining experiencing quickly. This season he is off to an excellent start with a 1.84 ERA and 0.89 WHIP and has only walked one batter in 14 innings of work. His velocity is up and his mound presence is much better than it ever has been. Today he'll go up against a difficult lineup in the Texas Rangers. However, they are not near as daunting to face on the road as they are in Arlington. In 2011, they were ranked only 7th out of 14 teams in runs scored on the road in the American League. It's clear that they take advantage of the hitter-friendly park in Arlington much more so than most people think.
Left-hander Matt Harrison pitches tonight for Texas and he's gotten off to a good start as well. In his first two starts he has posted a 0.64 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. However, those starts were against two horrendous lineups - the Twins and the White Sox. I think Harrison is much closer to his career ERA of 4.36 and will end up near there by season's end. The Tigers are one of the best home teams in baseball over the last few years and that can't be underestimated. Porcello is a much better starting pitcher than Harrison and the offenses and bullpens are about a draw for these teams. As a result, we see some nice value for the Tigers at an extremely short price at home in the first game of the doubleheader today. This is our Game of the Day so take full advantage. |
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04-21-12 | Miami Marlins v. Washington Nationals -166 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 11 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #904 Washington Nationals (-160) over Miami Marlins (1:05pm ET) The torch has been passed for the best starting pitcher in baseball, and the recipient is Stephen Strasburg. At the tender age of 23, Strasburg has put himself at the top of the elite pitchers in baseball with his exceptional stuff and moxie on the mound. He's only made 20 starts in his major league career but has posted a 2.35 ERA and 0.97 WHIP and has averaged almost 11 strikeouts per game in the process. He simply dominates and there's no reason believe that he won't keep doing it as long as he stays healthy. What's most remarkable about him is his consistency, which makes him a great bet if the price is relatively low. You can count on him to keep his team in the game no matter what as he never self-destructs on the mound.
The Marlins made a bunch of high-priced acquisitions in the offseason but so far they haven't quite lived up to expectations at 7-7. The season is still young but you get the sense that the team chemistry isn't quite as good as was expected and the team isn't jelling like everyone thought it would. Manager Ozzie Guillen couldn't even make it a full two weeks before getting suspended and he has just continued where he left off in Chicago. One of the biggest problems with Miami has been scoring runs as they've only scored more than five runs on three occasions in their first 15 games so far. The last thing a struggling lineup needs to see is a stopper like Strasburg so I expect their woes to continue for at least one more game. The Marlins go with Anibal Sanchez, who is a decent pitcher, but all the Nationals need is two or three runs off of him and they should get the win today. You won't see Strasburg priced at only -160 at home for much longer, so we'll take advantage while we can today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-19-12 | Atlanta Braves -125 v. Arizona Diamondbacks | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #909 Atlanta Braves over Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40pm ET) The Atlanta Braves are starting to heat up winning seven of their last eight games after starting the season 0-4. The main reason is that they've been swinging the bats very well averaging 6.9 runs per game over their current run. Some of it was the return of Chipper Jones who adds another weapon in the middle of the lineup, but the entire Atlanta offense is dangerous from top to bottom. They are predominant left-handed hitting lineup, so they excel against right-handers and they'll see one today. Josh Collmenter pitches for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Collmenter has really struggled to start the season pitching only seven innings in his two starts and putting up 12.86 ERA and 2.00 WHIP. He was batting some forearm tightness in the spring and it's definitely carried over into the regular season.
The Diamondbacks offense may not be able to help out much today as they have two of their best players suffering through injuries. Chris Young was just placed on the 15-day disabled list with a slight tear in his shoulder and superstar Justin Upton is battling soreness in his left thumb. He is questionable tonight but if he plays probably won't be 100%. The D-backs will be a facing a tough lefty in Mike Minor today. Minor is 1-1 with a 4.05 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in his first two starts and should be improved as this is his third full season with Atlanta. The Braves also hold a strong advantage in the bullpen, with the best 7-8-9 guys in the league from last year still intact. It's going to be an uphill battle for Arizona today, so I like the Braves to cruise in this one. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-18-12 | Philadelphia: C Lee v. San Francisco: M Cain +103 | 0-1 | Win | 103 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take San Francisco Giants over Philadelphia Phillies (10:15pm ET) The Philadelphia Phillies and San Francisco Giants play the rubber game of the series tonight at AT&T Park. It's been a pretty good series so far with a couple of good pitching performances by each team and today could be the best matchup of the series. Cliff Lee is on the bump for the Phillies and Matt Cain pitches for the Giants. Lee is about as consistent as they come and you can pencil him in for an ERA in the neighborhood of 3.00 every season and he will keep his team in nearly every game. However, that's going to be a little bit harder to do this in the first half of the season as Philadelphia is among the worst hitting teams in the National League without Ryan Howard and Chase Utley. I still don't think that fact is fully accounted for by the linesmakers for some reason, so in the meantime, we'll take advantage.
Matt Cain recently signed the biggest per season contract by a right-handed pitcher ever and he has certainly started earning his paychecks as he nearly pitched a perfect game in his last outing. He yielded just a lone single to the pitcher in that game as he went the distance in a win against the Pirates. He's quickly moving up the list of the best pitchers in baseball but still has some value since he's not the same household name as some of his peers. The Giants will score some runs this year after a historically bad offensive season last year. I also think their bullpen is underrated after losing Brian Wilson because they have depth and plenty of good arms. With the Giants at home for this one I really think the line should be closer to -120 so plenty of wiggle room to play this one. |
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04-17-12 | Philadelphia Phillies v. San Francisco Giants -135 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take San Francisco Giants over Philadelphia Phillies (10:15pm ET) The Philadelphia Phillies take on the San Francisco Giants in a matchup that is very different than it was last year. The Phillies are a completely different team without Ryan Howard and Chase Utley and it's definitely shown as they've only average 3.4 runs per game in their first 10 games of the season. Philadelphia just doesn't have the depth to replace guys like that and there's too much pressure on guys like Jimmy Rollins and Hunter Pence now. If the Phillies want to win games now, it's going to be with their starting pitchers. They have the best rotation in baseball, but today they have #5 starter Joe Blanton on the mound. Blanton has always been good enough to stay on a major league roster, but he's never harnessed the talent that he has. He's posted ERAs of 5.01 and 4.82 in his last two major league seasons and it's hard to imagine that he'll ever regain the form he had when he was a member of the A's.
The Giants had a historically bad offense last season but it's already shown major improvement this season averaging 4.5 runs per contest. The main reason is the presence of Buster Posey in the lineup on a daily basis. He missed most of last season and is almost fully recovered now, and that changes the whole dynamic of the lineup. Madison Bumgarner pitches for the Giants today, just days after signing a 5-year extension. He has posted great numbers in his first two seasons and has plenty of more upside to come. It will be hard to beat his 3.21 and 3.00 ERA in the last two seasons, but he is talented enough to pull it off. The Giants just lost closer Brian Wilson for the entire season, but I don't see that as being as big a problem as most do because they have a deep pen and several candidates to take over closer duties. I still rate the Giants bullpen as better than the Phillies. Thus, the Giants have the better starting pitcher today, the superior offense, a slightly better bullpen and home field advantage. All things considered, we get a good price on this one at only -135 for San Francisco. |
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04-17-12 | Tampa Bay: J Niemann +135 v. Toronto: R Romero | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take Tampa Bay Rays over Toronto Blue Jays (7:05pm ET) The Tampa Bay Rays meet the Toronto Blue Jays in what should be an interesting game. Right-hander Jeff Niemann pitches for the Rays and I think he might be one of the most underrated pitchers in the American League. His career ERA has hovered around 4.00, but he has great stuff and has the misfortune of facing the great offenses in the American League East for nearly half of his starts. He has had some really good peripheral stats recently and looks like he could be ready to break out. He pitched a lot better than his ERA indicated in his first start of the season at Detroit where he allowed three runs in five innings. He struck out six batters while yielding only two walks and hour hits. Toronto is not as good against right-handed pitching and their best hitter, Jose Bautista, is struggling a little bit as well.
The Blue Jays counter with left-hander Ricky Romero. Romero has great stuff and many people think he can be a Cy Young candidate this season. I don't think he's quite put it all together quite yet though. He pitched decent in his first two starts, but Tampa Bay excels against lefties and this will be a tough assignment for him today. So far on the young season, Tampa is batting .311 against lefties and is averaging 5.32 runs per game. The Rays are 6-2 in their last eight meetings in Toronto and I think they get the job done again today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-15-12 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Colorado Rockies -105 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 43 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #912 Colorado Rockies over Arizona Diamondbacks (3:10pm ET) The Colorado Rockies are riding high after a 8-7 comeback win in the bottom of the ninth against the Arizona Diamondbacks last night. Todd Helton hit a two-run walk-off home run to win to give the Rockies their third win of the season. It's going to be a tough one to forget for D-Backs closer J.J. Putz, who was one out away from getting the save. Arizona will try and come back from that one with Trevor Cahill today. Cahill was acquired in a trade with Oakland in the offseason and there have been some questions about his arm ever since coming over. His velocity was down in the spring and he had some major control problems in his first start of the season versus San Diego allowing six walks. It can be tough for some pitchers to adjust to a new league, so it may just take a little bit of time for Cahill to get it going. In the meantime, he is definitely a bet-against pitcher.
The Rockies will go with rookie Drew Pomeranz this afternoon. Pomeranz had an amazing spring in which he posted a 0.53 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in five starts. He was untouchable but the Rockies decided to skip his turn in the rotation due to off days to give his arm some rest and keep his innings down for the season. As a result, this will be his first start of the 2011 season. He got a taste of the big leagues last year when he started four games, but he's likely here to stay now and has a very bright future. He has demonstrated great command at the minor league level and has some nice groundball tendencies for a youngster. Over the last decade or so, the Rockies have been the best home team in baseball relative to their road performance. Their definitely is a big difference playing in the thin air of the higher altitudes and Rockies always seemingly use it to their advantage. This will be the first time the Diamondbacks will see Pomeranz, so that will be a huge edge for Colorado as well. Add in the momentum from last night and a struggling Cahill, and everything adds up to a play on Colorado as our Game of the Day. |
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04-14-12 | Oakland: T Milone -105 v. Seattle: H Noesi | 0-4 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 34 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #979 Oakland A's (+100) over Seattle Mariners (9:10pm ET) This will be the sixth meeting between the Oakland A's and Seattle Mariners on the young season. These two clubs kicked off the regular season in Japan and should know each other fairly well by now. I think the oddsmakers have the wrong team favored in this matchup however. I have the Oakland offense rated as slightly better than the M's, the Oakland bullpen significantly better, and a big edge to the A's in today's starters. Rookie Tom Milone pitches for Oakland and he was extremely impressive in his A's debut. He went eight full innings without allowing a run and only gave up three hits against the Royals earlier this week. He came over to the A's from the Nationals in the Gio Gonzalez trade in the offseason. The A's love his stuff and he's just the type of pitcher that they usually go after. He's not physical impressive and doesn't dominate hitters, but he has great control and just knows how to pitch. He's 25-years old and I think he'll make a home for himself in the A's rotation for many years to come.
Seattle counters with a young pitcher of their own today - Hector Noesi. He was also acquired via trade, in the deal that sent Michael Pineda to the Yankees. Noesi is also 25-years old but has much less upside than Milone based on all of the prospect reports. He pitched 56 innings last year with the Yankees out of the pen and posted a 4.47 ERA and 1.51 WHIP. In his first start of the season, he was shelled by the Rangers yielding seven runs in three innings. He may end up being a decent major league pitcher, but I think Noesi is a ways away still. The A's are the better team here today and should get the win. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-14-12 | Cleveland Indians +122 v. Kansas City Royals | 11-9 | Win | 122 | 6 h 43 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #977 Cleveland Indians (+125) over Kansas City Royals (7:10pm ET) The Cleveland Indians go up against the Kansas City Royals in an effort to win their second straight in the series. They won yesterday by putting up seven runs in the first inning against Kansas City's Luke Hochevar, then holding on for a 8-3 final. Cleveland hasn't had too much trouble scoring runs this season despite Grady Sizemore being out. Their lineup is mostly young and getting better by the day. They even added Johnny Damon for insurance, although he won't be ready for about two weeks. Today's starter is 23-year old Jeanmar Gomez. Gomez had a great spring and made his way into the Indians rotation due to injuries. He has very good control and induces a lot of groundballs, which is a great skill that most young pitchers have to learn. The American League hasn't seen much of him as he only pitched 58 innings last year, so I expect him to do well early on this season.
Many of the so-called experts tabbed the Royals as a potential surprise team that could possibly compete for the American League Central title this year. They have a lot of young talent, especially in the everyday lineup, but I still think this team is a year away. Clearly they have the talent offensively, but none of it is developed yet and they don't have much going for them in rotation or the bullpen . They made a risky move in the offseason bringing in Jonathan Sanchez, today's starter. Sanchez has had an up and down career and has never reached his full potential due to injuries and work ethic. He had a rough spring and there were reports that his velocity was down a bit. He's exactly the type of pitcher that you want to bet against when you can get a good price as an underdog because he's so inconsistent. The Indians are the superior team offensively and in the bullpen, so if Gomez can just pitch Sanchez to a draw, the Tribe should take this one. |
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04-14-12 | Tampa Bay: Hellickson v. Boston: C Buchholz -131 | 5-13 | Win | 100 | 2 h 28 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #974 Boston Red Sox (-130) over Tampa Bay Rays (4:05pm ET) The Boston Red Sox look to start some momentum as they host the Tampa Bay Rays in game two of their series. With new manager Bobby Valentine at the helm, the Red Sox started the season a little bit slow at 1-5, but they bounced back with a big win against the Rays yesterday 12-2. It's the kind of victory that Boston needed as the pressure was mounting and they definitely took out some of that frustration yesterday. There's no question that the Red Sox can still hit as they have arguably the best lineup in all of baseball when healthy. While they're averaging nearly five runs a game this season, 24 of their 34 runs scored have been in two of their seven games. Obviously things are going to smooth out a little more and that's going to lead to more victories. Clay Buchholz goes for the BoSox in this one. He stumbled a bit in his first start of the season as it was his first regular season outing since June 16 after going on the DL with a stress fracture in his back. However, Buchholz had a solid spring and has proclaimed that he feels great. Now that the butterflies are gone, I expect him to put up numbers similar to last season when he had a 3.48 ERA. He was even better the previous season when he had a ridiculous 2.33 ERA.
Jeremy Hellickson pitches today for the Rays after having a scary moment earlier this week. During batting practice, Hellickson was struck in the head with a line drive and had to go to the hospital. Everything checked out alright for the young right-hander, but he was definitely shaken up and you have to wonder if it will have any effect on the mound today. Hellickson was the American League Rookie of the Year last season as he took the league by storm. As is generally the case, he should experience a bit of a sophomore slump the second time around. I think the Red Sox will carry over some momentum from yesterday's big win and swing the bats well against Hellickson. Take the Red Sox at a pretty short price at home today. |
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04-14-12 | Baltimore: J Hammel +155 v. Toronto: H Alvarez | 6-4 | Win | 155 | 2 h 27 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #971 Baltimore Orioles (+150) over Toronto Blue Jays (4:05pm ET) The Baltimore Orioles will try to win another one in Toronto against the Blue Jays this afternoon. The O's took game one of the series 7-5 last night with an impressive offensive performance and some great relief pitching. Baltimore has one of the better lineups in the American League but they get lost in the shuffle with the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays and Blue Jays in their division. They have lots of slugging power with Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, Mark Reynolds, J.J. Hardy and Chris Davis. There are also a lot of strike outs in that lineup, but when they do make contact with the ball, it usually goes a long way. On the mound for Baltimore is right-hander Jason Hammel. The 28-year old had a fantastic debut in an Orioles uniform earlier this week when he beat the Twins going eight innings and yielding only one run. He only surrendered two hits in that game and had great stuff. The American League hasn't seen him much so he'll have a chance to take advantage of that until the second time around.
The Blue Jays can definitely hit as well and their lineup can be scary when everyone is clicking. But it's not head and shoulders above the Orioles lineup and is very inconsistent. Today's starter for the Jays is 21-year old Henderson Alvarez. Alvarez came up to the majors last year and was pretty impressive in posting a 3.53 ERA in 10 starts. That's even better than Toronto expected of him based on his age. I expect him to struggle a little bit more in his second year after most teams have seen him. The Orioles went up against him twice last year so they definitely have the book on Alvarez. With such a potent lineup, the Orioles are going to win some games simply by putting up some crooked numbers. I like the matchup of Hammel vs. Alvarez and that's the main reason I see value in the line at +150. That's just too big of a price for a 21-year old pitcher to be favored by, so the Orioles are the play here. |
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04-13-12 | Milwaukee Brewers +117 v. Atlanta Braves | Top | 8-10 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #911 Milwaukee Brewers over Atlanta Braves (7:35pm ET) The Milwaukee Brewers take on the Atlanta Braves in the first of a three-game set tonight. Things have not started out well for the Braves so far in the early season as they've stumbled out of the gate with a 2-4 record. One of the biggest problems has been their lack of production and endurance from their starting pitchers. In Atlanta's first six games, no starting pitcher has worked more than five innings. The Braves bullpen was heavily taxed last year, and they're already starting that trend again this season. While that may not affect them as much early in the season, it is still a huge red flag. Today's starter Jair Jurrjens worked less than five innings in his first start in New York against the Mets. His velocity is down and he appears as if he still isn't fully recovered from the injuries he endured last year. It wouldn't surprise me if a DL stint is in the cards for Jurrjens at some point very soon, but we'll probably get a few bad starts out of him that we can take advantage of first.
The Brewers have opened the season at 4-3 and are still adjusting to life without Prince Fielder. This team still has a very capable lineup that is going to be in the upper half of the National League in runs scored when all is said and done. Mat Gamel won't produce at the same level as Fielder at first base, but he's definitely underrated, and the addition of Aramis Ramirez is going to increase the production at third base by a wide margin. This team also has lots of speed and runs the bases very well, which are underappreciated skills that win you ball games. The biggest strength of this team is the back end of their bullpen. That group was devastatingly good last season and they're all back again this year. Today's starter is left-hander Randy Wolf. The 35-year old veteran put together a very nice 2011 season with a 3.69 ERA and 13-10 mark. He had a great spring and a very solid first start of the season, so there's no reason to believe that he can't replicate last year's success with the Brewers. We have a huge edge in starting pitching today and a huge edge offensively for the Brewers. As a result, I think the bookmakers have the wrong team favored in this one. As a result, take Milwaukee as our Game of the Day. |
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04-12-12 | Miami: M Buehrle -105 v. Philadelphia: J Blanton | 1-3 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #957 Miami Marlins over Philadelphia Phillies (7:05pm ET) The Miami Marlins and Philadelphia Phillies meet in the rubber game of a three-game series today. These two teams are the class of the division in my eyes and they should have some good battles all season long. But right now, the Marlins are the better team. With Ryan Howard and Chase Utley out with injuries, the Marlins have a much more potent offense than the Phillies do and that's the difference. Of course Philadelphia has the best rotation in the league, but that's not a factor today as the Phils go with Joe Blanton. Blanton made one appearance in the bullpen to start the season but is set at the #5 spot in the rotation as long as he can keep the Phillies in games. He's not going to get a ton of run support early on so he will have extra pressure on him to perform. Last year he turned in a 5.01 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in an injury-shortened season. He's a better pitcher than that but by how much is the question?
The Marlins hand the ball to veteran Mark Buehrle tonight. Buehrle turned in a pretty good outing in his Marlins debut against a tough Reds lineup yielding only two runs in six innings of work. I think he's going to fit in well with the reconstructed Marlins team and should put up even better numbers in the National League. There isn't much firepower in that Phillies offense and I expect Buehrle to pitch his usual quick game and keep the hitters off balance. Take the Marlins to win today and take the series from the Phillies. |
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04-11-12 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. San Diego Padres -117 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #908 San Diego Padres over Arizona Diamondbacks (6:35pm ET) The Arizona Diamondbacks are starting this season where they left off and have jumped to the top of the National League West with a 4-0 mark. After a sweep of the Giants, they took an extra innings contest from the Padres last night 4-2. Today they'll be up against it as they go with their #5 starter Joe Saunders. The left-hander put together a flukish-type season last year posting a 3.69 ERA, which was about a half run better than his career ERA. He doesn't have any flashy skills and I fully expect his ERA to be back in the 4's again this season. Today will be particularly challenging as he faces a mostly right-handed San Diego Padres lineup that loves southpaws.
The Padres are off to a sluggish start at 1-4 but their best pitcher goes today in left-hander Cory Luebke. Luebke posted a stellar 3.29 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in his rookie season last year. He struggled a bit in his last start but the Dodgers lineup struggles against lefties and they don't have much punch to begin with. Outside of Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier everyone else is very young or below average. In analyzing the respective offenses, defenses and bullpens of these teams they are about a draw. However, San Diego gets the big nod when it comes to starting pitching today and they will enjoy home field advantage. Take the Padres at a pretty good price here today. |
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04-10-12 | Kansas City: D Duffy +102 v. Oakland: G Godfrey | Top | 3-0 | Win | 102 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #973 Kansas City Royals over Oakland A's (10:05pm ET) Interesting matchup between two youngsters today as the Kansas City Royals take on the Oakland A's.Left-hander Danny Duffy has been a highly touted prospect of the Royals for a couple of years now and he has finally earned a full-time spot in the rotation. He struggled last season in half of a season when he posted a 5.64 ERA and 1.61 WHIP. However, he showed some signs of greatness and came back in the spring this year and pitched extremely well. He seems like a quick learner and I expect him to get off to a fast start. Going up against Oakland is a nice way to ease into the season as they have a lot of holes in their lineup. In Oakland's first five games, they've only scored 16 runs total and are relying on young starting pitching and a decent bullpen. Meanwhile, the Royals looked impressive taking two out of three from the Angels over the weekend. Many of the experts are saying that this Royals team is ready to break out and compete in the American League Central, so there's finally a buzz in Kansas City.
Oakland counters with 27-year old Graham Godfrey. The right-hander broke into the majors for the first time last year pitching in five games. He wasn't projected to make the rotation this year, but injuries to two of Oakland's starters moved up his timetable and he probably isn't quite ready yet. The Royals lineup is still pretty young, but they do have a lot of talent and some guys who can mash. Knowing that you won't have a lot of run support puts extra pressure on Godfrey that he doesn't need. The Royals have the better starting pitcher today and the slightly better team so we'll gladly scoop them up as an underdog tonight. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-10-12 | Tampa Bay: M Moore v. Detroit: R Porcello -104 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 1 h 29 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #964 Detroit Tigers (-120) over Tampa Bay Rays (1:05pm ET) The Tampa Bay Rays head to Detroit to take on the Tigers in the first of a three-game set. Both of these teams come in with perfect records as they were very impressive in their first series of the season. The Rays swept the Yankees with some timely hitting, solid starting pitching and excellent team defense. Joe Maddon did a great job of putting the shift on and positioning his players for each specific batter at the plate. He's the best in the business at doing that and it saves his team lots of runs. Tampa Bay sends rookie Matt Moore to the hill in this one. The 22-year old left-hander was impressive in the playoffs last season and is one of Tampa's prized prospects. While the expectations are enormous for Moore in his first season, I think he'll hit a few bumps in the road while he's getting his feet wet. He has a tall task today facing the potent Tigers lineup in Detroit. It's not exactly the matchup you want your youngster to have for his first start of the season and I think he'll struggle early on.
The Tigers are coming off of a sweep against the Red Sox over the weekend. They won two of the games in their last at bat and dominated another, but overall they were clearly the much better team on the field. The potent Tigers offense put 26 runs on the board in the three-game and was fueled by the best one-two punch in the game - Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder. One of the major strengths of this team that doesn't get talked about as much is their bullpen. They have one of the best closers in the game in Jose Valverde, one of the best 8th inning guys in Joaquin Benoit and a host of other setup men that just get the job done. As for starting pitching, today they go with their #4 starter Rick Porcello. The young 23-year old right-hander had a disappointing year last season, but he has the skills to be great and I think this is the year he starts to figure things out. This will be his fourth full season in the major leagues and he reportedly worked very hard in the offseason and has the velocity on his fastball up a few miles per hour. His Spring Training numbers were great and I think we'll see a continuation of that today in Detroit. The Tigers are one of the best home teams in baseball and any time you can get them at a short price like today, especially against a rookie pitcher, you take it. |
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04-09-12 | Chicago (A): C Sale +100 v. Cleveland: J Tomlin | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #915 Chicago White Sox over Cleveland Indians (7:05pm ET) The Chicago White Sox head into Cleveland to take on the Tribe to open the series. Neither one of these teams has a great shot to challenge the Tigers this season, and we've already seen the reasons why in the first few games of the season for both of these teams. The White Sox struggled to score runs against the Rangers in their opening series, plating only six runs in the three games combined. It's going to be a work in progress for these guys and they will struggle to score at times all season. The White Sox are much better equipped in the starting rotation this season, and today they go with someone who I think is going to be a huge surprise this year. Chris Sale is a 23-year old left-hander who has been in the bullpen the last couple of seasons and is now getting a shot at the rotation due to his enormous talent. He made the most of his opportunity in the spring putting up a ridiculous 28-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 28 innings pitched. He has great stuff and I think he's going to dominate as a starting pitcher.
The Indians let two games slip through their fingers in their first series against the Blue Jays this weekend. They held late leads and ended up blowing them in extra innings due to poor pitching out of their pen. There are a lot of holes in the lineup and it showed as the team struggled to score when they needed it most. Their bullpen also is a mess right now and there's no one guy that can be fully trusted. Josh Tomlin pitches for the Indians today and he had a miserable spring with a 6.18 ERA and 1.73 WHIP. He may be experiencing a bit of a sophomore slump as he enters his second full season. So there's not much for Cleveland to hang their hat on right now. I expect Sale to pitch well in this one and the White Sox to get to Tomlin enough times to make it matter. Good price for the White Sox in this one. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-08-12 | San Francisco: M Cain -122 v. Arizona: Collmenter | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -122 | 5 h 30 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #965 San Francisco Giants over Arizona Diamondbacks (4:10pm ET) The Arizona Diamondbacks go for the sweep today against the San Francisco Giants after winning two tight games on Friday and Saturday. These teams are pretty evenly matched and it should be a good race in the National League West all season long. I know it's early, but this is the first important game for the Giants as they don't want to get off to an 0-3 start against their chief division rival. They have the right guy on the mound to turn things around in Matt Cain. The 27-year old just signed the richest contract for a right-handed pitcher ever and now he gets his chance to prove that he is worth it. He had an excellent spring and looks like he is completely locked in already. It will be hard to repeat his season last year when he posted a 2.88 ERA, but he's entering his prime and has all of the tools. The Giants are also going to score a lot more runs this season with Buster Posey back for an entire season and the arrival of rookie Brandon Belt. Their offense last year was record-breaking bad and this year they take a huge leap forward to being a middle-of-the-pack type offense.
The Diamondbacks had a great surprise season last year but they're not going to sneak up on anybody this time around. They got career years from a few guys last year and you can't count on that again. Josh Collmenter pitches for the D-Backs today and he has had a rocky spring. He has been experiencing some forearm tightness and it's translated into poor results on the mound. He had a gaudy 9.95 ERA in Spring Training and only struck out six batters in 19 innings. He has extra pressure on him to perform because phenom Trevor Bauer is waiting in the wings in the minor leagues, and he can be brought up at any moment. I would be surprised if Collmenter lasts past the fifth inning today, as the Giants lineup is no longer a joke. Take San Francisco and Matt Cain at a gift of a price for our Game of the Day. |
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04-08-12 | New York Yankees -102 v. Tampa Bay Rays | 0-3 | Loss | -102 | 2 h 59 m | Show | |
2-unit Play Take #973 New York Yankees over Tampa Bay Rays (1:40pm ET) The New York Yankees are also in danger of getting swept today in Tampa Bay against the Rays.I don't think the Yankees are panicking yet, but I think they're starting to realize that the Rays have a team that may be put together better than their own. It's a gut check game and manager Joe Girardi is going to do whatever he can to avoid the heat in New York by winning this one. Phil Hughes pitches for the Yankees today and he has been impressive in this return to the rotation. He's always had the talent and determination, but injuries have plagued him. I think he'll make the best of his opportunity and show everyone why he was so highly touted at one point. There's been nothing wrong with the Yankees bats as they've scored six runs in each of the first two games and we should continue to see that all season. There's not a single easy out in the entire lineup and they make the opposing pitcher earn it in every at bat.
Tampa Bay counters with Jeremy Hellickson. The right-hander will be 25 years old today as he heads into this second full season. With the kind of season Hellickson put together last year, I would be surprised if he didn't have a sophomore slump of some sort in 2012. Last year he was 13-10 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.15 WHIP en route to AL Rookie of the Year honors. Now that the league has seen him a couple of times, he will need to adjust a bit to continue to produce at a high level. He has already showed some signs of trouble in the spring and it's going to be tough to get it all together against the Yankees lineup. The Bronx Bombers will put the pressure on Hellickson early on and if they can hold a lead into the 7th inning, I like our chances with the best bullpen in baseball. Take the Yankees as a live underdog as they look to avoid the sweep today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-07-12 | Minnesota: F Liriano -105 v. Baltimore: T Hunter | 2-8 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #923 Minnesota Twins over Baltimore Orioles (7:05pm ET) Two of the weakest American League squads take the field today, but that doesn't mean that there isn't money to be made here. The Minnesota Twins took a huge step backwards last year after dominating the American League Central for quite a few years. One of the biggest reasons for their horrible year in which they finished 63-99 was injuries to their two biggest stars - Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. They're both back this season and that immediately transforms the Twins lineup from one of the worst in the majors to somewhat respectable. Minnesota should also get a shot in the arm from what looks to be a fully healthy Francisco Liriano. The once proud ace had a horrible 2011 campaign as he was pitching with several ailments and finished with a 5.09 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. In the spring he looked dominant again and posted a 2.33 ERA in his seven starts. While it was only Spring Training, it seems like Liriano is definitely healthy and focused on getting back on track.
The Baltimore Orioles are trying to avoid their seventh straight 90-loss season in 2012. The O's have generally put a decent lineup on field, but their problems have stemmed from awful pitching. There have been quite a few pitching prospects that were highly touted over the last few seasons, but none of them have seemed to pan out once they reached the major league level. Today they go with another previously highly-touted pitcher in Tommy Hunter. The 25-year old right-hander broke in with the Texas Rangers but his talent never materialized and the Orioles took a flyer on him. He's shown some signs of potentially breaking out, but based on the recent history with this team, don't count on it. Huge edge for the Twins in the starting pitcher department today, and I think that makes the difference. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-07-12 | St Louis: Wainwright v. Milwaukee: Z Greinke -120 | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 44 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #906 Milwaukee Brewers over St. Louis Cardinals (4:05pm ET) Great pitcher's duel on paper this afternoon when the Milwaukee Brewers host the St. Louis Cardinals, but one starting pitcher definitely has the upper hand. Zack Greinke had an excellent first season with the Brewers last year and he followed that up by adding a new cut fastball in the spring and blowing hitters away with it. Greinke is an old-school type pitcher that is always looking to improve his game and be more efficient. He's in the prime of his career and now that he's been here a year I think he'll settle in even more and deliver better results. The Brewers lineup took a huge hit when Prince Fielder went to the American League, but that might be getting a tad overrated. Some of the loss was mitigated by picking up free agent Aramis Ramirez to play third base and the improved defense they'll have on the left side of the infield with him and Alex Gonzalez. Mat Gamel, Fielder's replacement, is also extremely talented and is expected to put up some decent numbers. And of course Ryan Braun, Rickie Weeks and Cory Hart are still around, so this is still a very good offense. Add that to the stellar bullpen that Milwaukee retained from last year's team, and you can see why some people are picking them to repeat as National League Central champions.
The Cardinals took quite a hit of their own when Albert Pujols also decided to switch leagues and play for the Angels. He was the heart and soul of the team much like Fielder, but they did a decent job of replacing some of his production by bringing in Carlos Beltran. I don't think the Cardinals are going to be quite as potent as last year as they got really big years from Lance Berkman and Matt Holliday that will be hard to repeat at their age. I also think the loss of manager Tony LaRussa and pitching coach Dave Duncan is going impact this team a lot more than has been discussed. Those were two of the greatest minds in the game and they definitely contributed significantly to the Cardinals success during their long tenures. Adam Wainwright pitches for the Cardinals in this matchup. He's coming off of Tommy John surgery so it's hard to say whether or not he's actually back to 100%. He put up decent numbers in the spring, but his dominance looked a little down as he wasn't striking out batters with regularity. He might need 5-10 starts before he finds his groove again and I think the Brewers will jump on him early here. And with Greinke and an excellent bullpen behind them, they're not going to need to score very many today. Don't forget that the Brewers were 57-24 at home last season and that they are 17-0 in Greinke's last 17 home starts. Those are powerful numbers to only be laying -120 with Milwaukee. |
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04-07-12 | Toronto: B Morrow -105 v. Cleveland: U Jimenez | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 2 h 45 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #917 Toronto Blue Jays over Cleveland Indians (1:05pm ET) The Toronto Blue Jays take on the Cleveland Indians in an early afternoon tilt. From an attitude perspective, these two teams couldn't be any farther apart right now. The Blue Jays had the best spring record (24-7) in all of baseball and saw lots of improvement from some of their younger players. The Cleveland Indians had the worst spring record (7-22) in baseball and left camp with a lot of question marks. In the first game of the season, the Indians led the Blue Jays the entire game and ended up blowing a 4-1 lead in the ninth to eventually lose in 16 innings 7-4. It was a gut wrenching loss for the Indians who have already been dealt a few tough blows, one of them being the injury to Grady Sizemore.
You would also be hard-pressed to find two starting pitchers who have as drastically different springs than today's starters Brandon Morrow and Ubaldo Jimenez. Morrow seems to be finally harnessing his talent and showed it off in the spring with a sparking 0.52 ERA and 0.75 WHIP. Jimenez experienced all kinds of issues with his mechanics and posted a 7.43 ERA and 1.96 WHIP in his seven spring starts. It all came to a head in his last start when he intentionally plunked former teammate Troy Tulowitzki to prove a point. Although he wasn't thrown out of the game, Jimenez was eventually suspended for five games and he was supposed to miss this start. He's currently appealing the suspension so he will be out there for this one, but don't expect him to turn everything around just because it's the regular season. He is an absolute mess right now and Toronto's dangerous lineup is not the team you want to face to calm things down. This one could get very ugly, so take the Jays at an excellent price. |
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04-06-12 | Los Angeles: Billingsly v. San Diego: C Luebke -125 | 6-0 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
10-unit Play Take #958 San Diego Padres over Los Angeles Dodgers (10:05pm ET) The San Diego Padres host the Los Angeles Dodgers in the second game of a three-game series to start the season. The Dodgers got the best of the Padres yesterday afternoon 5-3, but their bullpen was taxed as Clayton Kershaw had to come out of the game with flu symptoms after only three innings of work. Today they go with right-hander Chad Billingsley, who is far from reliable for going deep into the game, which they need tonight. Billingsley was just 11-11 with a 4.21 ERA last season in a spacious Dodgers stadium. While he's more talented than his numbers demonstrate, he hasn't put it all together mentally to stay consistent from start to start. He got off to a rough start last year and with the spring he had it looks like it might be that way once again. I'm also skeptical that the poor Dodgers offense from last season is going to be any better this time around. You can't expect Matt Kemp to put up any better numbers than he did last year and you can probably say the same for Andre Ethier. There's still a lot of easy outs in the Dodger lineup and that's not going to change until the new management group starts spending some money and making some moves.
The Padres send southpaw Cory Luebke to the mound in this one. Luebke was one of the great surprises of 2011, posting a 3.29 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in his rookie campaign. I think he can put up similar numbers again as his flyball style is well-suited for the large Petco Park. They're lineup is also going to be better this year with the additions of Yonder Alonso and Carlos Quentin (out for a month). They now have a good mix of veterans and youngsters and they should be able to score enough runs to stay in most games, especially with their strong bullpen. The Padres get the nod across the board in this one as they have the better starting pitcher, a slightly better offense, a superior bullpen and they're at home. Take San Diego at a nice price tonight. |
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04-06-12 | New York (A): C Sabathia v. Tampa Bay: J Shields +120 | 6-7 | Win | 120 | 3 h 16 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #964 Tampa Bay Rays over New York Yankees (3:10pm ET) It's the big market bullies versus the small market intellects in today's matchup. The New York Yankees had a rather uneventful offseason by their standards. They did add Hiroki Kuroda and Michael Pineda to the starting rotation, and Andy Pettitte came out of retirement. And there's no question that the added depth in the starting rotation is going to make this team better overall in the regular season. However, the everyday lineup and bullpen is mostly the same from last year and most of them are on the wrong side of their prime. As a result, we should see a little drop off in production from the rest of the team. I also expect to see a little drop off in production in the performance of today's starter, CC Sabathia. He's thrown 230+ innings for five consecutive seasons and, although he is a beast on the mound, all of those innings are going to eventually affect even him. He had a poor spring performance in the Grapefruit League and we might see some carryover into April until he's in his normal groove.
The Tampa Bay Rays are one of my favorite teams to watch and bet on because they always give maximum effort and they have one of the smartest managers in the game. Joe Maddon is excellent in dealing with his players, getting them prepared for their opponents, and positioning them to succeed. He has probably his most talented team ever and the expectations are high in Tampa this season. They made a couple of moves in the offseason to improve their lineup, bringing back Carlos Pena at first base and adding Luke Scott to DH. Evan Longoria is also ready to breakout and is being touted as a major MVP candidate by many. There's no one the Rays would like to have on the mound today for a big opening day start than James Shields. Big Game James lives for these types of games and put together are a very nice spring in preparing for the season. I like his chances to outduel Sabathia in Tampa, where the Rays have a stronger home field advantage than most. |
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04-05-12 | Toronto: R Romero -120 v. Cleveland: J Mastersn | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 37 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #913 Toronto Blue Jays over Cleveland Indians (3:05pm ET) You can't put a ton of stock into what you see in Spring Training, but it's hard not to walk away impressed with what you saw out of the Toronto Blue Jays this spring . They were24-7 in Grapefruit League play and easily had the best record of all 30 clubs. They're a talented club that is waiting for a lot of players to break out, and we saw some good indicators of that over the last month or so. Third-basemen Brett Lawrie had one of the best springs of anyone, and young pitchers Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow had dominant springs that displayed their progression from last season. The Blue Jays are a team that I liked a lot last year as they were much better than their record indicated due to playing in the difficult American League East. If they were playing in any other division in baseball, there's a good chance that they would have made the postseason. This year they get the benefit of an extra wild card spot being added, so there chances will be much better. Their record still won't be as good as it should be based on their talent with a hard schedule, so you should continue to get some decent value playing this team.
As impressive as the Blue Jays were this spring, the Cleveland Indians were on the opposite end of the spectrum. First they got the news that Grady Sizemore was injured and will miss the opening of the season - again. At the end of Spring Training, Ubaldo Jimenez decided to take out some frustration on his ex-teammates by intentionally beaning superstar Troy Tulowitzki in an exhibition game. In between all of that the Indians were downright awful on the diamond, going 7-22 in the Cactus League, good enough for the worst record in the spring. There are a ton of question marks for this team beginning in the outfield, where the loss of Sizemore created a huge whole. The starting rotation was also pounded all spring long, including today's starter Justin Masterson. Masterson posted a 9.00 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in five spring starts, following a season in which he actually got Cy Young consideration. While he obviously won't be that bad come the regular season, there could be some issues with Masterson and I would bet that he gets off to a slow start. Spring Training games don't count for anything once the regular season begins, but they can give you a little sneak peek into the strengths and weaknesses of certain teams. The Blue Jays are poised to be a playoff contender all season long and they played like it in the spring. The Indians had a ton of questions heading into the season and none of them were answered over the last month, and they even created some new ones. Masterson seems a little off his game and the Blue Jays will be sending out Ricky Romero, who is ready for a breakout campaign this year. Take the Jays at a short price against the Tribe today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-05-12 | Philadelphia: R Halladay v. Pittsburgh: E Bedard +155 | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 6 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #904 Pittsburgh Pirates over Philadelphia Phillies (1:35pm ET) Opening Day has finally arrived and we get the battle of Pennsylvania to start off the season. Let's start with the Philadelphia Phillies as there is certainly more to talk about with them. They easily had the worst offseason of any team in baseball with the news that Ryan Howard's rehab had some setbacks and that Chase Utley will open the season on the DL for an indefinite period of time. While it's going to hurt any team enormously when your two best hitters go down, it hurts the Phillies even worse because they haven't found quality replacements. Jim Thome is a Hall of Famer, but he's a shell of himself and can't play defense at first. Freddy Galvis is slated to fill in for Utley and he wasn't projected to be in the Phillies plans this year so he's a huge risk. With the injuries, I have this Phillies offense as one of three worst in the National League. They have a veteran presence in the lineup, but besides Hunter Pence, everyone is past their prime and declining in production. Luckily for Philadelphia they have the best starting rotation in the majors, and today they'll send out arguably the best pitcher in the game in Roy Halladay. There's no need to get into the resume Halladay as everyone knows his story, but he is going to be turning 35 next month and I expect some regression this season.
There's not a whole lot to say about the Pittsburgh Pirates except that things seem the same as they always do. They have a young, promising lineup with lots of upside, but they still need to prove it. That's been the hard part for the organization, as so many of their young kids haven't panned out over the last 10-15 years. I'm not sure that this roster is any different, but I do think Andrew McCutcheon is going to be a superstar and they've surrounded him with enough talent that I think this team will be able to score some runs this season. The problem with the Pirates is going to be their starting pitching again. Today we'll get to see one of their better ones, so that won't be a problem in this matchup. Erik Bedard, who was picked up in the offseason, is going to take the hill. Bedard has one of the more talented arms in baseball and has been good when he's been able to stay on the field, which hasn't happened often. I think Bedard can hang with Halladay in this one, especially given the dreadful Phillies lineup that they're putting on the field. This isn't the same Philadelphia team that went to the World Series when you take Howard and Utley out of the equation. They're going to struggle to score runs against quality arms and today they face one. The price on this game is really high for a home underdog, and I think Halladay is getting inflated a bit as is usually the case for the top pitchers in the game. Play the Pirates in today's season opener. |
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03-28-12 | Seattle: F Hernandz -127 v. Oakland: B McCarthy | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 18 h 58 m | Show |
The 2012 regular season kicks off tonight in an international style, as the Seattle Mariners and Oakland A's clash in Tokyo, Japan. It's been a long anticipated start to the season as we've had quite an offseason with plenty of player movement, drama and intrigue. Every team's fans are filled with renewed hope at the start of the season and that's a good thing for the teams tonight. Both the Mariners and A's are in rebuilding mode and it's safe to say that neither team has a real shot at the post-season this year with the heavyweights in the American League.
However, I really like the team that the Mariners have started to build with plenty of young talent in the everyday lineup. The highly-touted Justin Smoak, Dustin Ackley and Mike Carp all had a decent amount of at bats last year as they broke into Seattle's lineup. They'll be the nucleus of the team in the future along with Jesus Montero, who was acquired in a trade with the Yankees in the offseason. While none of these players are even close to their primes yet, this offense isn't going to be as putrid as it has been in the last few seasons with this kind of talent. The Mariners are also anchored on their pitching staff by Felix Hernandez, today's starting pitcher. King Felix has earned his nickname as he's been one of the best in the American League for the last five years. He loves the spotlight and that suits him perfectly tonight as he'll be pitching in front of a huge crowd at the Tokyo Dome. There's no question that the Mariners will have some home field advantage tonight as Japan is in love with Ichiro. He is a national hero and one of the most famous people in the country despite playing in Seattle. It seems like the Mariners have been really looking forward to coming to Japan ever since the break of camp in February, and this is a big series for them with all of the Japanese media attention that has been around this team for quite some time. For the Oakland A's, on the other hand, things aren't quite as exciting. They are definitely in the rebuilding phase as well, but there's not nearly as much talent on this roster at this point and it's clear that this team is a few years away from being competitive. They did make a huge splash in the offseason by bringing in Yoenis Cespedes from Cuba, but he's very raw and probably isn't going to be very productive right away. Tonight's starter for Oakland is Brandon McCarthy. He's had a rocky spring and recently had an issue with his middle fingernail on his right hand, so we could see some control issues from him if he wasn't able to address it properly. It doesn't seem like the A's are quite as excited about this two-game series in Japan as the Mariners are. With King Felix pitching and a talented young lineup behind him, I think the Mariners are a much better team than the A's. Throw in the Japan angle and some home field advantage because of it, and I think the Mariners are clearly the play tonight. |
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10-27-11 | Texas Rangers v. St. Louis Cardinals -115 | Top | 9-10 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #964 St. Louis Cardinals (-115) over Texas Rangers (8:05pm EST) The St. Louis Cardinals have their proverbial backs against the wall in Game 6 of the World Series tonight. But they definitely have the right guy on the mound tonight as Jamie Garcia takes the ball in an effort to keep the Cardinals alive. Garcia has been amazing at home this season with a 2.55 ERA in Busch Stadium. He pitched great in Game 2 against the Rangers, going seven full innings and not allowing a single run in a game the Cardinals eventually squandered in the ninth inning. In that game, Garcia only allowed three hits and a walk while striking out seven in his seven innings of work. He will once again be opposed by right-hander Colby Lewis for the Rangers. Lewis pitched pretty well in Game 2 as well, but did get into some trouble.
Overall, the Cardinals have played better than the Rangers in this series and it's unfortunate that they're down 3-2. They have scored more runs than the Rangers, have outhit the Rangers and have simply been the better team. The linesmakers still don't think they are the better team and we'll take advantage of it today. The Cardinals will be in desperation mode and I think they will focus well tonight and get the win. |
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10-19-11 | Texas Rangers v. St. Louis Cardinals -118 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #952 St. Louis Cardinals over Texas Rangers (8:05pm EST) The World Series begins tonight in St. Louis, one of the least likely destinations after looking at the standings just a few weeks ago. The Cardinals are definitely playing with some house money, while the Texas Rangers were expected to get this far by many. The Rangers made it to the Series last season, falling to the San Francisco Giants in five games. As a result, all of the pressure appears to be on Texas to win it and even more so in Game 1. This should work to the advantage of St. Louis, a team that's very loose and playing their best baseball of the season.
I like going with dominant aces in the beginning of a playoff series and we have one tonight in Chris Carpenter. C.J. Wilson is a fine pitcher as well, but Carpenter loves the spotlight and gets up for the big games (see Game 5 of the Phillies series). The perception is that the Rangers are a much better hitting team, but that's just not the case when you break it down. The Rangers were ranked 3rd in baseball in runs scored, while the Cardinals were right behind at 5th. Throw in a red hot Pujols and the Cardinal lineup is even more formidable than they have been all season. I think we'll see some blowouts in this series due to the high-powered offenses, so it's up to the starting pitchers to minimize the damage before getting into the respective bullpens. I like getting Carpenter at home for a very short favorite price in this situation. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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10-14-11 | Milwaukee Brewers v. St. Louis Cardinals -120 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #920 St. Louis Cardinals over Milwaukee Brewers (8:05pm EST) With the National League Championship Series now tied at 2-2, Game 5 is extremely important for the Milwaukee Brewers and the St. Louis Cardinals. However, it's just a little bit more important for the Cardinals in my opinion. With this being the last game in St. Louis and Games 6 and 7 in Milwaukee, this turns into a must win for the Cardinals since the Brewers are so good in Miller Park. At first glance of the pitching matchup today, it appears as if it is rather even. But, when you look a little bit deeper, it's definitely advantage Cardinals. Zack Greinke goes for the Brewers and has had an excellent season at 16-6 with a 3.83 ERA. However, when you look closer at his splits, he has a 4.70 ERA away from home. He simply doesn't have the same confidence on the road as he does in front of the fans in Miller Park. Part of that could be due to his mental makeup, as he's struggled with confidence and anxiety in the past. Jaime Garcia has a similar home-road split after a deeper dive into the numbers. The left-hander is 13-7 with a 3.56 ERA on the season, but when he pitches in front of the home fans his ERA is a much better 2.55. You generally don't see pitchers with such a large split discrepancy. As a result, I believe the line on this one should be much higher. Milwaukee was happy to win Game 4 last night to force the series back to Miller Park for at least one more, but the Cardinals will be the more focused team in tonight's game in St. Louis.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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10-10-11 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Milwaukee Brewers -134 | 12-3 | Loss | -134 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #908 Milwaukee Brewers over St. Louis Cardinals (8:05pm ET) Game 2 of the National League Championship Series gets underway tonight after the Brewers got the victory last night 9-6 to open the series. We've been riding the Brewers when they're at home for quite some time, and there's no reason to jump off the train now. The Brewers are 61-24 at Miller Park this season, including a 4-0 mark in the playoffs. No team in baseball has as powerful of a home field advantage but the line doesn't seem to reflect it. The Brewers go with right-hander Shaun Marcum tonight, who is 13-7 with a 3.54 ERA in his first season with Milwaukee. St. Louis opposes him with right-hander Edwin Jackson, who is 12-9 with a 3.79 ERA in his season with the White Sox and Cardinals. Slight edge to the Brewers in the starting pitching matchup and that continues on into the bullpen as the Brewers have better options at their disposal for the 7th, 8th and 9th innings. I've said it before but will reiterate it again - don't underestimate the energy that the Brewers fans provide for their team. They haven't lost a playoff game yet in Miller Park and I don't expect it to happen today. The Brewers should take a 2-0 lead before heading back to St. Louis for three games, which could get interesting.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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10-08-11 | Detroit Tigers -107 v. Texas Rangers | 2-3 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #901 Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers (8:05pm ET) Game 1 of the American League Championship Series gets underway as the Texas Rangers host the Detroit Tigers. This is a good spot for the Tigers as they have plenty of momentum coming off of their dramatic Game 5 win against the Yankees just two nights ago. Riding that high should carry into the beginning of this series as the team definitely played about as well as they could have in knocking off the Bronx Bombers. It also doesn't hurt that they'll be trotting out their ace in Justin Verlander. This year's American League Cy Young helped the Tigers win a pivotal Game 3 in the last series and carried the team at various points during the regular season. At 24-5 with a 2.40 ERA, he simply put together on of the best seasons by a starting pitcher in the last 30 years.
Conversely, Texas comes into this series with three full days of rest after knocking off the Rays in four games this past Tuesday. They go with left-hander C.J. Wilson who has put together a nice season of his own. Wilson went 16-7 with a 2.94 ERA during the regular season, but did falter in the opening game of the series with the Rays giving up six earned runs in five innings of work in a 9-0 loss. He also didn't pitch all that well in the postseason last year so it could be that he's just not cut out for the spotlight when the pressure is on. The Texas bats will look to pick him up, but it's tough to tell how well they'll be swinging it with a few days off. I expect there to be a little bit of rust, which will make it that much tougher to score on Verlander. Detroit won the season series 6-3 in their nine meetings and I expect them to get off to a good start in this series. Take the Tigers backed by the best pitcher in the American League. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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10-05-11 | Milwaukee Brewers v. Arizona Diamondbacks -105 | 6-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #982 Arizona Diamondbacks over Milwaukee Brewers (9:35pm ET) The momentum has seemingly shifted as the Arizona Diamondbacks dominated the Milwaukee Brewers in Game 3 of the National League Division Series last night by a score of 8-1. It shouldn't be much of a surprise that the D-backs didn't give up without a fight as they were one of the scrappiest teams in baseball, coming from behind in numerous tough situations throughout the season. In addition, the Brewers don't play nearly as well on the road and are the only team in the playoffs with a losing record away from home. Arizona is now back in the series and will be playing in the comfort of Chase Field once again today. Left-hander Joe Saunders takes the ball for the D-backs in this one. Saunders has put together a decent season at 12-13 with a 3.69 ERA. While he doesn't possess outstanding stuff, he knows how to pitch and he shut down Milwaukee in his only start against them this season holding them to only two runs in seven innings. He's opposed by fellow southpaw Randy Wolf. The crafty 35-year old has put together a very similar season at 13-10 with a 3.69 ERA. Wolf faced Arizona twice this season and surrendered nine earned runs in only 13 1/3 innings of work, both which resulted in losses.
Everything points to a Diamondbacks win tonight as they have the momentum, are at home versus a weak road team, and they have a slight edge in the starting pitching department. This series will be heading back to Milwaukee for a decisive Game 5. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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10-03-11 | New York Yankees v. Detroit Tigers -122 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 18 m | Show | |
3 Unit Play. #970 Take Detroit -125 over New York Yankees (8:35p.m., Monday October 3 TBS)
The Tigers stole Game #2 and now the Tigers get Justin Verlander at home which is always a good thing. The Yankees have struggles in Detroit and the Yankees are 1-4 in their last 5 games in Detroit and the Tigers are 5-1 in their last 6 home playoff games. Tonight the Tigers go up 2-1 in this series and we believe the Yankees are in trouble against the Tigers. |
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09-27-11 | Toronto Blue Jays +105 v. Chicago White Sox | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
10-unit Play Take #975 Toronto Blue Jays over Chicago White Sox (8:10pm ET) The 2011 season can't end soon enough for the Chicago White Sox, and especially for Ozzie Guillen who got a head start yesterday. Given his demands, the White Sox released Guillen from his contract on Monday night and he is reportedly interested in taking over the Marlins managerial job for the 2012 campaign. Things had gotten ugly in Chicago over the last few months as Ozzie and General Manager Kenny Williams didn't quite see eye to eye on several personnel issues. It was clear that the White Sox were growing tired of Ozzie's antics and the fact that the team wasn't winning made the relationship untenable. The White Sox players were able to get their manager one last victory on Monday night in his send-off game. After an emotional farewell to a manager that the players had grown to respect, it's likely that the Sox will be a little down for today's matchup as the dugout just won't be the same.
The White Sox send left-hander Mark Buehrle to the mound for this one. Buehrle has had his usual solid season but has been struggling lately. Over his last four starts, the White Sox ace is 1-3 with a 9.28 ERA and has only 11 strikeouts and 8 walks. It's been rumored that this may be Buehrle's last season with the team and it's possible that the long-time veteran is losing his focus. This is easily Buehrle's worst stretch in two years and he hasn't looked like himself recently. He's opposed by rookie Henderson Alvarez of the Blue Jays today. Alvarez is the opposite of Buehrle at this point - a hungry youngster looking to impress and earn a spot in the club's rotation for next season. Alvarez has turned a few heads already with his amazing stuff. The highly-touted right-hander has started nine games and has put up a very respectable 3.65 ERA and has surrendered more than four runs only once so far. The White Sox have never seen Alvarez before so he'll definitely have a leg up early in the game. The Blue Jays are currently at 80-80 and would love to finish the season above .500 for the second consecutive year. The White Sox have just been an absolute mess on and off the field down the stretch. The Blue Jays will clearly be the more focused team in this one and will prevail as my Underdog Play of the Year! Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-26-11 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Milwaukee Brewers -195 | 9-8 | Loss | -195 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #910 Milwaukee Brewers over Pittsburgh Pirates (8:10pm ET) The Milwaukee Brewers take on the Pittsburgh Pirates in the opening game of the last series of the 2011 regular season. The Brewers have the National League Central division clinched but this final series is huge for playoff positioning. The Brewers need to stay ahead of the Diamondbacks in order to secure the #2 seed and home field advantage in the first round of the playoffs. In addition, if the Cardinals find a way to win the wild card, the Brewers will need to have a better record than Arizona to avoid playing the vaunted Phillies in the first round of the playoffs. As a result, the Brewers will be giving it their all to win these final games of the season. For the Pirates, who knows what kind of effort that they will give. The Pirates have been abysmal in the second half of the season at 24-45 since the All-Star break. They've been playing more of the young guys for the last few weeks and it's clear that the focus is on the future and not on today.
Milwaukee starts right-hander Shaun Marcum in today's matchup. Marcum is 13-7 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.12 WHIP on the season. Marcum has been excellent against the Pirates this season with a 1.31 ERA in three starts. The Pirates send struggling Charlie Morton to the mound to oppose the Brew Crew. We've cashed a lot of tickets betting against Morton in the second half of the season as he hasn't looked right for quite some time. In his last five starts Morton is 1-4 with an ERA at an even 5.00. He has lost his control walking 17 batters in his last 27 innings and his strikeouts are way down. Morton has also been horrendous in his career against Milwaukee. In addition, the Brewers take care of business against the weaker squads as they are 41-11 in their last 52 games against teams below .500. The Brewers need this game and I expect them to take it rather easily. |
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09-21-11 | Atlanta Braves v. Florida Marlins -122 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
10-unit Play Take #962 Florida Marlins over Atlanta Braves (7:10pm ET) The Atlanta Braves take on the Florida Marlins in a game that they desperately need to hold onto their wild card lead. I normally wouldn't look to back a team that doesn't have much to play for against a team that is fighting for their playoff lives, but today's matchup favors the Marlins. There's one primary reason that Florida is the right side today and that is Javier Vazquez. Vazquez has been pitching out of his mind lately. In his last four starts, the right-hander is 4-0 and has only yielded one run for a scant ERA of 0.31. His strikeout-to-walk ratio over that span is 27-3 - pure dominance. If you want to go back to his last seven starts, Vazquez's strikeout-to-walk ratio is a staggering 53-5 and his ERA rises to just 1.84. It's clear that he has put some of his early season control problems behind him as he can't pitch any better than he has recently. He also gets to face a Braves lineup that has looked pathetic over the last couple of weeks. Over their last 18 games, Atlanta has only averaged 3.44 runs per game.
On the mound for the Braves will be Derek Lowe. The veteran right-hander is going in the opposite direction of Vazquez lately. In this last three starts, Lowe is 0-3 with a 10.12 ERA and 2.48 WHIP. It appears that Lowe may be getting fatigued or could be dealing with an undisclosed injury as his velocity is down and his control has been a mess the last few weeks. With all of the injuries sustained to the Braves rotation, Lowe is likely taking one for the team down the stretch. This is a great spot for the Marlins to take advantage as they have been struggling a bit themselves. They now have their young star Mike Stanton back in the lineup to provide some punch in the middle. The Braves are just 7-19 in Lowe's last 26 starts on normal rest. The Marlins would love to play spoilers here and knock the Braves out of the playoffs. With a red hot Vazquez on the hill, there's no doubt that they have a great shot to do it today. As only a small favorite at home, there is tremendous value on the Marlins and that's why this is my Game of the Month. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-20-11 | San Diego Padres +105 v. Colorado Rockies | 2-1 | Win | 105 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #911 San Diego Padres over Colorado Rockies (8:40pm ET) The San Diego Padres go up against the Colorado Rockies in Coors Field today. There's only one more week left in the 2011 season as these teams look ahead to the offseason soon. The Rockies may have been caught looking ahead to the offseason a little bit too early as they have dropped five straight games and are 4-10 in their last 14 contests. Part of the problem has been a host of injuries that have plagued Colorado over the last few weeks. A total of nine of nine Rockie hitters are either out or questionable for today's game - a list of that includes the team's top three hitters in Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez and Todd Helton. It's clear that this team needs some R & R during the offseason, but in the meantime they have been inserting several of their minor league prospects into the daily lineup. Unfortunately for them they have to face Padres ace Matt Latos today. Latos has been on a roll lately with a 3.00 ERA in his last three starts and a 24-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He experienced a bit of a sophomore slump earlier this season but has bounced back with a strong second half.
Opposing Latos will be Jhoulys Chacin. The young right-hander is 11-12 with a 3.73 ERA in his second full season with the Rockies. Chacin has had a rough second half of the season posting a 4.76 ERA with only three wins to his name. In watching his last couple of starts, he's shown a lack of focus and his control has suffered. The Rockies are 3-11 in Chacin's last 14 starts as a team. This will also be the first time the Rockies won't finish above .500 at home since 2005. On the other hand, the Padres are actually better on the road than they are at home this season. All signs point to San Diego in this matchup and getting them as an underdog is great value. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-19-11 | Atlanta Braves -110 v. Florida Marlins | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #953 Atlanta Braves over Florida Marlins (7:10pm ET) The Atlanta Braves head into Miami to take on the Florida Marlins in the first of a very important three-game series. The Cardinals are hot on the heels of the Braves, and are now sitting only 3.5 games back in the wild card race. Every game from here on out is the most important of the season for the Braves to maintain their lead. Today's matchup features rookie left-hander Mike Minor. In his 13 starts this season, Minor has gone 5-2 with a 4.11 ERA and has filled in nicely when the Braves needed it most. He wasn't even supposed to be in the rotation this season, but injuries to Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson have forced the Braves to promote some of the youngsters a little early and it has worked out. The Marlins send right-hander Ricky Nolasco to the mound to oppose the Braves. Nolasco is 10-11 with a 4.42 ERA and has never got on track this year. These two pitchers squared off against one another last week in Atlanta and Minor got the best of it in a 4-1 Braves victory.
The Marlins offense has struggled mightily of late, averaging only 2.39 runs per game in their last 10 contests. They've had quite a few players banged up recently, including a season-ending injury to shortstop Hanley Ramirez and a lingering hamstring injury to outfielder Mike Stanton. It's hard to imagine that the team is very motivated right now as they sit in the cellar in the National League East division at 69-84. The Marlins are also 17-38 in their last 55 home games. They've been lucky to draw even 5,000 fans per game lately, so the support is definitely not there for the team. The Braves are 9-3 in their last 12 games as a road favorite. This is an important game for the Braves and I expect them to deliver. Take the Braves at a short price today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-14-11 | St. Louis Cardinals -147 v. Pittsburgh Pirates | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 2 h 53 m | Show | |
5-unit Play Take #903 St. Louis Cardinals over Pittsburgh Pirates (12:35pm ET) The St. Louis Cardinals are hanging on for dear life in the National League Central and Wild Card races. They're 6.5 games out of first for the division and 4.5 games out of the wild card spot. With only a little more than two weeks remaining it's certainly a long shot, but they still have a shot and they're not going to give up without a fight. The Pittsburgh Pirates, on the other hand, gave up a long time ago. Since their brief reign atop the National League Central division on July 19th, the Pirates have gone 16-37. These are more like the Pirates that we've come to know over the last 20 years, while the first half of the season now appears to be an aberration.
Throwing for the Cardinals in today's matinee is right-hander Edwin Jackson. Jackson has five quality starts in a row and seven in nine starts as a Cardinal. He didn't receive a decision Friday, but he's 4-2 with a 3.39 ERA since coming over from the White Sox before the trade deadline. The Pirates counter with youngster Charlie Morton. Morton's spot in the rotation was skipped last time around due to his recent ineffectiveness. Over his last three outings, he has gone 0-3 with a 7.71 ERA and has yielded 11 walks in 14 innings of work. It's clear that Morton hasn't been right as he's really struggled with his control and his velocity has been down. I don't expect him to automatically turn things around with a few extra days off, especially against a superb Cardinal lineup. This is the last game of a nine-game homestand for the Pirates as they'll be heading on a West Coast road trip tonight. As a result, they might not be fully into this one with their bags packed for one more long trip this season. The Cardinals are staying in the state of Pennsylvania as they face the Phillies next. This game means much more to the Cardinals than it does the Pirates, and I expect that to reflect on the scoreboard. That's why this is my Game of the Week. |
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09-13-11 | Arizona Diamondbacks -125 v. Los Angeles Dodgers | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #963 Arizona Diamondbacks over Los Angeles Dodgers (10:10pm ET) The magic number for the Arizona Diamondbacks is only eight as they look for another win against the Los Angeles Dodgers today. The Diamondbacks have been the surprise story of baseball this season as they have taken control of the National League West division and are heading to the playoffs barring a miracle run by the Giants. Many of the so-called experts had predicted a last place finish for Arizona, but they have silenced all of their critics. At 85-62, the team is now trying to secure the #2 seed in the National League so they can gain home field advantage for the first round of the playoffs.
Right-hander Ian Kennedy pitches for the D-backs today and he is a legitimate Cy Young candidate at 19-4 with a 2.90 ERA on the campaign. It's certainly been a breakout season for Kennedy but he still hasn't received the amount of attention he deserves, especially by the linesmakers. But that's ok, as we'll take advantage of that in this one. The Dodgers go with right-hander Chad Billingsley to oppose the Diamondbacks. Billingsley is having a mediocre season and has been struggling even more as of late. In his last four starts, he has a 6.30 ERA and has walked 13 batters in only 20 innings. And none of those starts were against great lineups. The Diamondbacks lineup will be much more challenging as they're the 9th ranked offense in baseball and have been averaging 5.58 runs per game in their last 10. The Dodgers offense is only ranked 23rd and they are without the services of stud outfielder Andre Ethier, who suffered a season-ending knee injury last week. The Dodgers are only 36-35 at home this season while the Diamondbacks are an excellent 40-35 away from home. So the fact that this game is in Dodger Stadium doesn't provide as much of an advantage as it should. The Diamondbacks are 9-3 in their last 12 games as a road favorite and 23-9 in their last 32 games overall. The line on this game should be much higher for an ace pitcher like Kennedy, so we'll take the Diamondbacks at an extremely generous price. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-09-11 | Los Angeles Dodgers +112 v. San Francisco Giants | Top | 2-1 | Win | 112 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #965 Los Angeles Dodgers over San Francisco Giants (10:15pm ET) Two of the National League's best starting pitchers face off in today's matchup between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Francisco Giants. Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers faces Tim Lincecum of the Giants. Kershaw will get heavy Cy Young consideration this season as he is 17-5 with a 2.45 ERA and is among the leaders in strikeouts. Without him it's hard to imagine where the Dodgers would be this season. He's broken several losing streaks for the team and has salvaged many series for the Dodgers when they otherwise would have been swept. In addition, he's one of the most consistent starters in baseball. Lincecum knows what it's like to win the Cy Young, but this season hasn't been a normal one for him. While he's put up a very respectable 2.75 ERA, he's only 12-12 and has lost control of the strike zone at many different times. In his last three starts, Lincecum has yielded 12 walks and given up 10 earned runs, all of which were at home. Clearly he's not the old Lincecum, and he's in the middle of a slump.
Offensively speaking, the Dodgers have a significant leg up on the Giants. The Dodgers offense is nothing special, besides of course MVP-candidate Matt Kemp, as they only average 3.97 runs per game. But over their last 20 games, they've averaged 5.90 runs per game and have been winning games handily. On the other hand, the Giants offense is not only the worst offense in baseball, it's the worse offense in decades. The Giants only average 3.35 runs per game and they have been even worse of late. On top of that, they have several key players that are out or questionable for this one. The Giants are 2-12 in the first game of the series in their last 14 tries. They are also deflated after basically being knocked out of the National League West race, and it's not likely they'll be fully focused. The Dodgers have the better starting pitcher and much better offense in this game and are tabbed as the underdogs by the linesmakers. The value is with the Dodgers for my Game of the Week. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-08-11 | Atlanta Braves G2 +102 v. New York Mets G2 | 5-1 | Win | 102 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
10-unit Play Take #915 Atlanta Braves over New York Mets GAME 2 (7:10pm ET) This is the second game of a doubleheader today between the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets. This was supposed to be a day off for these teams, but they are making up a couple of rainouts and now have to play twice today. The Braves will be the much more motivated club in this matchup, especially given that they were just swept by their rivals the Phillies. They need to get back on track down the stretch so they can enter the playoffs with some momentum. The Mets are coming off a series win against the Marlins but they really have nothing to play for compared to the Braves. I think this distinction will be enhanced even more since this will be the second game of the day.
The Braves send rookie Julio Teheran to the mound in this game. Teheran is the number one prospect in the Braves entire system and has already been tabbed as the ace of the Braves pitching staff for years to come. This will be only the third start of the young right-hander's career and without much of a scouting report out on him yet, I would expect that he puts up some good numbers. He's dominated each level of the minor leagues and this is the natural progression for him. The Mets counter with a rookie of their own in today's matchup - Dillon Gee. However, this rookie has been on the scene for the entire season and it's clear that the book is out on Gee. The youngster started 2011 strong, but has been regressing as the season has gone along. In this last three starts, Gee has posted a 9.20 ERA and has 9 walks. It's possible that the innings have taken a toll on Gee and that his arm isn't conditioned for later in the season. That comes with experience, but in the meantime the Braves can take advantage. I love the Braves at an extremely short price against an unmotivated Mets team. Play this game as action. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-07-11 | New York Mets -116 v. Florida Marlins | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #959 New York Mets over Florida Marlins (5:10pm ET) The New York Mets meet the Florida Marlins in the rubber game of the series in Miami today. Although the Mets are only slight favorites, they have a clear advantage in every phase of the game in this matchup. Starting with the starters, it's knuckleballer R.A. Dickey for the Mets against Brad Hand of the Marlins. Dickey has been a model of consistency all season long with a solid 3.60 ERA and a low walk rate of 2.2 batters per nine innings. He's gone at least six innings in 11 straight starts and has only given up more than four earned runs three times in his 28 starts this year. On the other hand (no pun intended), Brad Hand is a rookie making only the tenth start of his young career, but he's struggled. In his first nine starts, he's 1-5 with a 4.23 ERA but has walked the same amount of batters that he has struck out. He's managed to get out of more than a few jams, but it's just a matter of time before the free baserunners catch up with him.
The offenses of the Marlins and Mets have similar seasonal statistics, but there are some key injuries right now that will significantly influence today's lineups. The two best hitters for the Marlins, Hanley Ramirez and Mike Stanton, are out for today's game. Ramirez went out with a season-ending injury recently and Stanton has been struggling with a hamstring injury for the last few days. The Marlins have been playing more minor leaguers to audition for next year lately, and that will be even more prevalent with the absence of their two stars. The Mets are finally healthy, as shortstop Jose Reyes is back at the top of the lineup and he's the spark plug that makes the offense go. The Marlins are at home, but that's not much of an advantage for them as no one is coming to the ballpark and they have one of the worst home records in baseball at 28-43. In addition, the Mets are actually one of the better road teams in baseball at 39-35. With the much better starting pitcher, better lineup and no real home field advantage, the Mets should be much bigger favorites in this one today and get the win. |
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09-05-11 | New York Mets v. Florida Marlins -130 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take New York Mets/Florida Marlins UNDER 8 (7:10pm ET) Today's game between the New York Mets and the Florida Marlins features two starting pitchers that have been on a roll and two offenses that aren't quite the same as they were earlier in the season. When you add it all up, it's a great opportunity for an Under to hit today. Left-hander Chris Capuano starts for the Mets in this matchup. Capuano has started to find a nice groove in his last couple of starts and seems like he has returned to his old form where he was an All-Star with the Brewers. In his last couple of starts he's posted a 1.29 ERA and has a 17-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio, including a complete game shutout against the Atlanta Braves. The Florida Marlins go with right-hander Javier Vazquez, who has been a different pitcher since the middle of June. In this last 14 starts, Vazquez has allowed more than three earned runs only once and his ERA is a stellar 2.44. He too has regained some of his dominance from previous seasons he had with the Braves and Expos.
Neither one of the lineups for these teams is great, but they're not terrible either - definitely middle of the pack. However, one thing for sure is that they aren't as potent as they were earlier in the season. Gone from the Mets lineup is Carlos Beltran, who departed to San Francisco, and Daniel Murphy, who suffered a season-ending knee injury. Jose Reyes has also been out of the lineup off and on due to injuries and there's no telling if he is truly 100%. The Marlins lineup is minus Hanley Ramirez, who has called it quits this season after a nagging shoulder injury, and Mike Stanton is questionable today. These are all key players that will definitely impact the total in today's game. With two hot starting pitchers going today, it's hard to envision a lot of runs crossing the plate. In these teams' last six meetings, the record for the Under is 5-1. I'll call for another here today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-04-11 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Chicago Cubs -130 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 3 h 21 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #912 Chicago Cubs over Pittsburgh Pirates (2:20pm ET) The Chicago Cubs host the Pittsburgh Pirates today and try to avoid a three-game sweep in Wrigley Field. The Cubs send right-hander Randy Wells to the mound today to stop the bleeding and he's stepped up for the team lately. The 29-year old went 0-3 with a 7.38 ERA in his first nine starts after returning from injury this year, but he's gone 5-1 with a 3.42 ERA over his last eight outings, holding opponents to a .214 average during that span. In his last outing against the Giants, Wells threw a complete game shutout, allowing only two hits and a walk. His confidence is sky-high now and he's seemed to regain the form he has two years ago when he won 10 games as a rookie with a 3.05 ERA. The Cubs are 7-0 in Well's last seven starts with five days of rest, which he has today.
Charlie Morton opposes the Cubs in today's matchup and has hasn't been himself of late. After starting the season strong, Morton has lost some of his control and isn't throwing as hard. Morton has lost back-to-back starts for the first time all season while compiling an 8.38 ERA. I've been fading Morton over his last few starts and it's paid off. He also doesn't fare as well on the road as the Pirates are only 7-24 in Morton's last 31 starts dating back to last season. Morton has had a rough time against the Cubs in his career with a 5.68 ERA in five appearances. Neither the Cubs nor the Pirates have been hitting the ball well lately as both teams have averaged fewer than four runs for the last couple of weeks. On the season, the Cubs are the better overall hitting team and with all of their guys healthy, definitely put out the more formidable lineup. With the starting pitcher in better current form, the better lineup and playing at home, the Cubs should be a much bigger favorite in this one. The value is definitely with the Cubs and that's why this is the Game of the Week. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-03-11 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. San Francisco Giants -146 | 7-2 | Loss | -146 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #966 San Francisco over Arizona Diamondbacks (9:05pm ET) The season is on the line for the San Francisco Giants as they host the Arizona Diamondbacks in game two of this crucial series. The Giants won last night 6-2 cutting the Diamondback's lead in the National League West to five games. The situation is dire for the Giants as they really need a sweep in this series to give them a chance to compete down the stretch. Luckily for them, there's no pitcher they'd rather have on the mound than their ace Tim Lincecum. The freak, as he is affectionately called, is fourth in the National League with his 2.58 ERA and third in strikeouts with 193. Unfortunately he hasn't received the run support from his teammates and is only 12-11 on the season. However, Lincecum seems to rise to the occasion against top competition as the Giants are 15-5 in Lincecum's last 20 starts against versus teams with a winning record. Needless to say, he's a game and is able to turn it up a notch when the pressure is on, as it will be today.
The Giants counter with right-hander Ian Kennedy in today's game. Kennedy has had an unbelievable year in his own right, but he is not nearly as feared as Lincecum. With the pressure on, it's difficult to predict how he will perform. The Diamondbacks team has beaten up on weak competition and has struggled against some of the top flight teams this season. In fact, they are 0-5 in their last five games against teams with winning records. The Giants are 40-30 at home this season and are 9-4 versus Arizona this year overall. The bottom line is that the defending World Series champions need this game more than the Diamondbacks do and with their ace on the hill, it's hard to see them going down without a fight. I like the Giants to get a win in a low-scoring pitcher's duel at a decent price. |
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09-01-11 | Tampa Bay Rays +136 v. Texas Rangers | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #967 Tampa Bay Rays over Texas Rangers (8:05pm ET) Today's game between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Texas Rangers offers up a perfect blend of great pitching and great hitting. The great pitching starts with Tampa Bay's Jeff Niemann. The right-hander continues to dominate as he is 8-1 with a 2.57 ERA in his last 12 starts. Over that stretch he's faced many tough lineups - Boston twice, New York, Toronto, Detroit, Milwaukee and St. Louis. It's clear that Niemann isn't just some flash in the pan and that he's reached a new level. Today he'll go against another tough lineup in the Rangers. Texas is a great hitting team wherever they are, but are excellent in Arlington where they average 6.12 runs per game. However, they are without power-hitting outfielder Nelson Cruz for this one.
The Rangers starter today is left-hander C.J. Wilson. Wilson is 13-6 with a 3.29 ERA in 2011, but he hasn't fared as well against some of the better hitting lineups. Against the American League East, Wilson is 2-5 in his last seven starts. The Rays feast on left-handed pitching, averaging 4.86 runs per game. They've also been playing well of late and may have fooled themselves into thinking that they can catch the Yankees or Red Sox for a wild card spot. The Rangers are very good at home with a 43-28 record, but the Rays are one of the best road teams in baseball with a 39-30 mark. It will be interesting to see how this game plays out with two quality pitchers and offenses. I can envision a 2-1 pitcher's duel or a 9-8 hitter's fest. Either way, I think the Tampa Bay Rays come out on top. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-31-11 | San Diego Padres v. Los Angeles Dodgers -145 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 39 m | Show |
3-unit Play Take #902 Los Angeles Dodgers over San Diego Padres (3:10pm ET) Today's afternoon matchup between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Diego Padres features starting pitchers that are on opposite ends of the spectrum. The Dodgers' Ted Lilly is back to his old self after struggling with an injury for the first part of the season. The crafty left-hander has an impressive 2.20 ERA in his last five starts to go along with his 28-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio. On the other hand, San Diego's Wade LeBlanc has struggled for most of the season between the minor leagues and the big leagues. The southpaw is 2-3 with a 5.02 ERA on the season and nearly half of his starts have been in pitcher-friendly Petco Park. He probably isn't major league starter material yet but the Padres are giving him a chance to get some experience as they are out of contention.
The Dodgers offense has been hitting on all cylinders lately, a far cry from how they've been hitting for most of the season. Over their last 12 games they have averaged 6.41 runs per game, most of which has come on the road. They've been led by MVP-candidate Matt Kemp who has posted sensational numbers and has been on a tear of late. Kemp is batting .321 with 31 home runs, 101 RBI, 87 runs scored and 35 stolen bases, and there are still close to 30 games remaining on the schedule. The Padres offense has been plain bad all season long, but the last six games have been especially challenging. In five of their last six contests the Padres have scored either 0 or 1 runs. The Dodgers are 19-5 in their last 24 games as a favorite while the Padres are 7-16 in their last 23 games as a road underdog. The Dodgers are clearly the better team in today's matchup and they should be able to get the job done in Dodger Stadium this afternoon. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-30-11 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Houston Astros +115 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 115 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #958 Houston Astros over Pittsburgh Pirates (8:05pm ET) The Houston Astros take on the Pittsburgh Pirates today in the second game of a series that doesn't count for much more than pride (unless of course there's money to be made). The Houston Astros have been sitting in the basement of the National League Central for the entire baseball season. They are currently 45-90, which is the worst record in all of baseball. However, they've been playing baseball a lot differently of late than they did earlier in the season. They brought up a handful of minor leaguers up to the bigs, several of which were immediately placed into the everyday lineup. The thought was that the Astros would get a chance to see these guys place so they could gauge their talent for next season and the future. But a funny thing happened along the way - the Houston Astros actually started winning with a team filled with minor leaguers. They've been hitting a lot better, pitching much better and have an overall better attitude. While they haven't necessarily been playing like a first place major league team, the Astros have been very competitive over the last couple of weeks. Over their last 13 games, Houston is 7-6 and they have played the Giants in two separate series as well as the Cubs and Rockies. The youth has rejuvenated this squad and it has certainly showed as this is the team's best stretch of the 2011 season.
The Pittsburgh Pirates, on the other hand, have been spiraling out of control ever since they had a brief taste of first place in the National League Central back in mid-July. Since then they have gone 11-28 and have struggled offensively and on the mound. The pressure of winning got to the Pirates and they have proved that they're not quite ready to make that next step. Today's starter for Pittsburgh, Charlie Morton, has put together a very nice season at 9-7 with a 3.63 ERA. However, he hasn't looked the same in his last six or seven starts. He has struggled with his control and seems to be losing some velocity. There could be an underlying injury or his season pitch count be beginning to take its toll on him. Whatever the case, Morton isn't right. The Astros counter with right-hander Henry Sosa. The 26-year old is making his fifth start of the season and has been pretty good so far. He hasn't surrendered more than four earned runs in any of his outings and has kept his team in each game. He faces a Pirates team that is 23rd in the major leagues in scoring runs and that has lost its focus at the plate over the last six weeks. There's some enthusiasm in Houston and definitely some hope for the future. The team is playing well and is having some fun for the first time all season. The Pirates find themselves sliding further and further in the National League Central and haven't been competitive for quite some time. The Astros are the underdog in this matchup, but it sure seems like they should be the favorite. |
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08-28-11 | Los Angeles Angels v. Texas Rangers -115 | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show | |
5-unit Play Take #980 Texas Rangers (-115) over Los Angeles Angels (8:05pm ET) The Texas Rangers and Los Angeles meet on the Sunday night game of the week for what is the most important game of the season for both teams. The Rangers currently have a slim 2-game lead in the American League West division after dropping one to the Angels last night. Every time the Angels have gotten close to first place this season, the Rangers have found a way to knock the Angels back down. Today's starter Colby Lewis will try to do that again today for Texas. Lewis is 11-9 with a 4.07 ERA in 2011, very respectable considering that he pitches in a hitter's ballpark in Arlington. He goes against a subpar Angel lineup that has never really gotten into a rhythm all season long. The Angels are 20th in runs scored in the major leagues and don't have anyone in their lineup having a great year. They've been looking for some of their youngsters to step up and it hasn't quite happened as they imagined.
The Angels counter with their ace Jered Weaver. The young right-hander is having a Cy Young-type season at 15-5 with a 2.02 ERA. However, he is throwing on only three days of rest in this one, which is usually very detrimental for starting pitchers. He's also been tailing off of late and hasn't shown the same stuff that he did earlier on in the season. His velocity is down a bit and it appears that all of the pitches he has thrown this season could be catching up to him. Weaver faces an extremely tough group of Ranger hitters who rank third in all of baseball in runs scored. The Rangers are especially good at home with a 41-27 mark on the season. Another edge that the Rangers have in this one is in the bullpens. The Rangers have better setup men and definitely have a better closer in Feliz. If you look inside the numbers, the Rangers are clearly the better team overall as their run differential on the season is +95 runs while the Angels are only at +24 runs. The Rangers have also been their best this season when the Angels are breathing down their necks, so I expect them to bring their A-game in this one. Weaver is tough but he's not invincible, especially on the road in a tough environment like Arlington. It's not very often you're going to see such a short price on the Rangers at home, so you have to take advantage when it's there. That's why I've made the Rangers my Game of the Week selection. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-27-11 | Tampa Bay Rays -123 v. Toronto Blue Jays | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 2 h 53 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #921 Tampa Bay over Toronto Blue Jays (12:05pm ET) Although these two squads won't be making a playoff appearance in 2011, this game is interesting on a couple of different levels. For starters, Luis Perez of the Toronto Blue Jays is coming off the first start of his career in which he took a no-hitter into the 6th inning and didn't surrender a run to the Oakland A's. Not a bad transition for guy that had been coming out of the bullpen all season long. However, don't expect it too last into today's start. Once you throw a game like his last one, you get noticed. The book will be out on Perez and it's going to be much more difficult this time around - not to mention that it will be against a much tougher lineup. Tampa Bay averages 4.77 runs per game versus left-handed pitchers on the season, which is much better than they fare against righties.
The Rays send Jeff Niemann to the hill to battle against the Jays lineup, and he has been sensational for the last two months. In his last nine starts, Niemann is 6-1 with a 2.07 ERA and a 59-16 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The highly touted young right-hander is finally coming into his own. The Jays don't hit righties nearly as well as lefties, so I'd be surprised if Niemann has much trouble with the Toronto lineup. The Rays are 12-5 in their last 17 games and don't seem to be handing playoff spots to the Red Sox and Yankees quite yet. Although it's highly unlikely that they'll get into the race, the Rays aren't going down without a fight. The Blue Jays are content with just taking a look at some youngsters for next year. With the much better starting pitcher and the extra motivation, the value lies with the Rays. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-26-11 | Los Angeles Angels v. Texas Rangers -111 | Top | 7-11 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #976 Texas Rangers over Los Angeles Angels (8:05pm ET) For the second time in as many weeks, the Los Angeles Angels and Texas Rangers hook up in a crucial series that will help decide the American League West division. The Rangers got the best of the Angels last time around as they won 3 out of 4 games and nearly swept the series if it weren't for a walk-off home run. In the first game of this series, Dan Haren takes the ball for the Angels. Haren didn't face the Rangers last time, but he did a little over a month ago and was shelled for seven runs in 4 1/3 innings. The right-hander has pieced together a nice season but the innings and pitch count are starting to get high for the veteran who has a history of breaking down in the final stretch of the season. Only three pitchers in all of baseball have thrown more pitches than Haren, all of them considerably younger. With the pressure-packed intensity in today's matchup, the pitches may weigh more heavily on an overused right arm. Not that a potent Ranger lineup needs much of an edge being ranked the third best offense in baseball, but they'll certainly take it today.
The Rangers are very difficult to beat at home because they average 6.24 runs per game in Arlington and are accustomed to triple-digit temperatures night in and night out. For the 2011 season, Texas is 40-25 at home. Derek Holland pitches for Texas tonight and he is 11-5 on the season with a 4.42 ERA. He's won five of his last six decisions and seems to be locating his pitches much better than he did earlier in the season. He beat the Angels last week and nearly went the distance holding the Halos to only three runs. Last week Texas almost put the Angels away for good in the American League West, but this weekend they put the nails in the coffin. It starts with a win tonight. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-22-11 | Atlanta Braves v. Chicago Cubs +120 | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #960 Chicago Cubs over Atlanta Braves (8:05pm ET) The Atlanta Braves are going to the playoffs this season barring a complete meltdown and the Chicago Cubs are certainly not. Not that this should be a surprise to anyone, as history has shown that the Braves run a better organization than the Cubs year in and year out. However, what may come as a surprise is how well the Cubs have actually been playing lately. The Cubs are 14-6 in their last 20 games, making a late season run after they've already been out of contention in typical Cub fashion. Nonetheless, the Cubs have been hitting the ball very well, averaging 5.12 runs per game over their recent run. They incurred a handful of injuries to some of their regulars earlier in the year, but now that they have their complete lineup healthy they have been living up to their full potential. The Cubs will face off against right-hander Jair Jurrjens of the Braves today. Jurrjens had an excellent start to his season with an ERA hovering around 2 for the first couple of months until a knee injury derailed him. He hasn't been the same since. In his last 5 outings, Jurrjens has gone winless with a 6.52 ERA and very poor control.
Veteran Ryan Dempster takes the ball for the Cubs today. The right-hander has been in absolute groove after a rocky couple of first months in 2011. Since June 8, Dempster is 6-3 with a 3.02 ERA. He also pitches much better in Wrigley Field, with a 3.71 ERA on the season. The Braves offense has been hit or miss this season as they rely on the home run quite a bit. They're only 14th in all of baseball in runs scored and several of the players they counted on have had subpar seasons. The Cubs are 13-5 in Dempster's last 18 starts and I expect that trend to continue today. |
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08-22-11 | Detroit Tigers v. Tampa Bay Rays +130 | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #968 Tampa Bay over Detroit Tigers (7:10pm ET) The Detroit Tigers head into Tampa Bay for the beginning of a four-game series with the Rays in what appears to be a great pitching duel today. Cy Young front-runner Justin Verlander goes for the Tigers and he's been nothing short of sensational all year long. He's 18-5 with a 2.31 ERA and leads the majors with 204 strikeouts. He absolutely has some of the nastiest stuff in the game, but the good news for Tampa Bay backers is that's already factored into the line on the game. What might not be completed factored in is how well Jeff Niemann of the Rays has been pitching of late. While he's been floating under the radar a little bit, Niemann has gone 7-0 with a 2.15 ERA in his last 10 starts - not too shabby for a back-end of the rotation starter. The primary reason for Niemann's success is his pinpoint control. He's walking far fewer batters than he did earlier this season and earlier in his career.
Needless to say, runs will be very hard to come by today. The Tiger offense is slightly ahead of the Rays offense, but playing in Tampa should negate most of that advantage. The Tigers are a much better team at home than they are on the road over the last few years. This game could come down to the bullpens in the late innings, another area where the teams have very similar numbers. If you're looking at team defense and team speed, that advantage has to go to the Rays. All things considered, this game is fairly even with a slight edge to Verlander. However, you don't get rich backing the best pitchers in baseball because the price is too high. If that were the case, then we'd all be rich because it's obvious Justin Verlander is the goods. However, you can get rich if you can find the good pitchers that no one is talking about, and that is why there is value with Jeff Niemann. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-21-11 | Florida Marlins +123 v. San Diego Padres | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 20 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #913 Florida Marlins over San Diego Padres (4:05pm ET) The Florida Marlins and San Diego Padres are similar in many ways. Both are sitting in last place in their respective divisions after wallowing through a season in which they had expectations to be somewhat competitive. They both have very mediocre offenses and both have a couple of starting pitchers that are young and up and coming. Two of those young guns go in today's matchup - right-hander Anibal Sanchez for the Marlins and left-hander Cory Luebke for the Padres. However, Sanchez has the decided advantage over Luebke for a variety reasons, which is why I give the Marlins the advantage in this afternoon's game.
To begin, Sanchez is much more seasoned as this is his sixth season in the big leagues while Luebke is just a rookie. Sanchez has been improving every year and this is his best season yet with 9.33 strikeouts per nine innings versus only 2.55 walks per nine innings. His ERA hasn't fully reflected the improvement in his skills, but there's no argument that he is more effective at retiring batters than ever. This is only Luebke's eleventh start of the season and things are only going to continue to get more difficult as he starts to face teams for a second and third time around. His sparkling 2.99 ERA is also somewhat diminished by the fact that he pitches in Petco Park, a pitcher's haven. The Marlins are 6-2 in their last 8 starts versus left-handed pitchers and the Padres are 20-41 in their last 61 starts against right-handers. With similar offenses and bullpens in a pitcher's park, I expect this game to come down to starting pitching. I'll take the more experienced youngster who has shown improvement versus the rookie who has yet to deal with any adversity. The Marlins are an underdog today and have some definite value. |
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08-21-11 | Toronto Blue Jays +113 v. Oakland A's | 1-0 | Win | 113 | 5 h 19 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #929 Toronto Blue Jays over Oakland Athletics (4:05pm ET) Today's matchup features one of the most underrated teams in major league baseball against one of the biggest underachievers this season. And it's not very hard to figure out who is who.
The Toronto Blue Jays have had a really good season, but you wouldn't know that by just watching mainstream media such as ESPN or FOX Sports. The Jays have a 64-62 mark on the year, but are unfortunately overshadowed in the American League East by the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays. Fourth place teams just don't get a lot of recognition, but if Toronto were playing in any other division in baseball they'd probably be in contention for a playoff spot of some sorts. The Blue Jays have the fourth best offense in all of baseball, averaging 4.7 runs per game on the season. They've struggled on the pitching end, but playing a third of your games against the offenses in New York, Boston and Tampa Bay takes its toll. Today's starter for the Jays, Luis Perez, makes the first start of his career. Perez has been used as a reliever in his first big league season and has been quite effective at it. The left-hander has a 3.71 ERA in 29 appearances and is striking batters out at the rate of 7.63 per nine innings. He throws pretty hard and can get it over 95mph when he really rears back. I love playing relievers that are making their first start because they usually want to show that they can start in this league and they perform well. Perez faces an Oakland offense that had been red-hot as of late, but is starting to fizzle a bit. They've only scored seven runs in their last three games. Oakland was projected to be in contention in the American League West this year but things haven't quite worked out as planned. The young starting pitchers and bullpen have pitched fairly well, but none of the young talent in the everyday lineup has stepped up until lately. Oakland starter Guillermo Moscoso steps to the mound in this matchup today. He's been on my list of overrated pitchers for quite some time. His stuff is just average but he has managed to go 6-6 with a 3.48 ERA on the season for the A's. His strikeout rate is low and he has struggled with control in many of his starts, finding ways to narrowly escape. A lineup the caliber of the Blue Jays should be able to easily expose Moscoso and put some runs on the board. Toronto is looking to close out the season above .500 and finish strong, while the A's just want the season to be over with. I'll take the better team as an underdog here today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-20-11 | Cincinnati Reds -101 v. Pittsburgh Pirates | 3-5 | Loss | -101 | 6 h 31 m | Show | |
5-unit Play Take #820 Cincinnati Reds over Pittsburgh Pirates (4:10pm ET) It wasn't long ago that both the Cincinnati Reds and the Pittsburgh Pirates were in contention in the National League Central. But a few weeks of subpar baseball and a red hot run from the Brewers has turned these teams into spoilers from here on out. The Reds have the talent to win, evidenced by their division crown last season, but have definitely underachieved during the 2011 campaign. With the pressure now off, it wouldn't surprise me if the Reds make a decent run down the stretch to finish above .500 with the team that they have. The Pirates, on the other hand, have been played above their heads up until about three weeks ago when they briefly led the division. They've been in a tailspin ever since going 5-18 in their last 23 contests and it hasn't been pretty. It's clear that the air has been sucked out Pittsburgh as far as baseball is concerned, and the hope that they had for the future has faded.
The Reds start left-hander Dontrelle Willis for today's game. Willis has seemingly regained some of his dominance in Cincinnati, but is doing it a little differently. He's made some adjustments from his old wind-up and is now pitching strictly from the stretch and it has been working. Dontrelle has made seven starts and has amassed a 4.08 ERA, but more importantly has regained his control. In his prior comeback attempts with the Tigers and the Giants, Willis struggled to keep the ball in the strike zone averaging between an exorbitant 6-8 walks per nine innings. So far this season, Willis has his walk rate down to 3.18 per nine innings, which is in line with the numbers he posted in his heyday with the Marlins. The Pirates have struggled to put runs on the board lately, averaging 3.26 in their last 10 games. And over the years, left-handers have proven difficult to hit in PNC Park. As a result, there's no reason to believe that they're going to be able to get to Willis today. The Pirates counter with Charlie Morton in today's game. Morton has been a solid contributor to the Pirate rotation in 2011. However, he's been a much better pitcher on the road this season than he has been at PNC Park. He's also made an improbable improvement in his results from last season when he posted an ERA of 7.57, to this season where he's at 3.43. The truth is that his true skills are somewhere in the middle. The Reds have one of the best lineups in baseball, ranking sixth in all of baseball in runs scored. Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips and Jay Bruce are the heart and soul of the team and each of them are having good seasons. Morton isn't dominant and I expect the Red lineup to be patient and wait for good pitches to hit to score their runs. The Reds have the better starting pitcher, the better lineup and the better overall team. With the price at even, there's no question the value is on Cincinnati today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-19-11 | Seattle Mariners -111 v. Tampa Bay Rays | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -111 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #919 Seattle Mariners over Tampa Bay Rays (7:10pm ET) The Seattle Mariners invade Tampa Bay to take on the Rays in the first of a three-game weekend set. Since they ended their 18-game losing streak roughly three weeks back, the Mariners are actually playing decent baseball. They're 10-9 since July 27th in a stretch that included series with the Yankees, Angels, Rangers, Blue Jays and Red Sox - not exactly easy pickings, but they've held their own. They've been hitting the ball much better and playing better fundamental baseball overall. Today's starter is one of the best in all of baseball - Felix Hernandez. The young right-hander has been dominating American League hitters for over six years and will for years to come. Due to lack of run support, Hernandez is only 11-10 with a 3.38 ERA in his 26 starts in 2011. However, he is one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball and has gone at least five innings in every one of his starts this year. The Rays struggle against right-handers and have had very little luck again King Felix over his career. Hernandez has lost to the Rays only once in eight starts and has posted a 2.28 ERA.
Tampa Bay sends youngster Wade Davis to the hill in today's matchup. Davis was a prized possession in the Rays system for quite some time before coming up with the big club for good two years ago. However, instead of improving on his pitching since he has come up to the majors, Davis has been slowly regressing. He's 8-7 with a 4.60 ERA this season and has seen his strikeout rate drop dramatically over the last two seasons. It's hard to say whether it's mechanics or lack of confidence, but Wade Davis is not the same pitcher that he was in the minor leagues. He's been even worse of late with a 6.04 ERA in his last four outings. Seattle has infused some new talent into their lineup lately from the minors and has been swinging it well. I would expect them to take advantage of a struggling Davis and put enough runs on the board to get a win for their ace, which shouldn't take much at all. I love the short price on one of the premium pitchers in baseball. That's why this is my Game of the Week, which I cashed in on easily in my last two weeks as well as my Game of the Month. |
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08-18-11 | Florida Marlins +125 v. San Diego Padres | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #959 Florida Marlins over San Diego Padres (10:05pm ET) There's nothing at stake for today's game between the Florida Marlins and the San Diego Padres, and that means good news for Javier Vazquez. Vazquez, today's starter for the Marlins, has had a rocky career and has often times crumbled under the pressure of the spotlight. He struggled in two different stints in New York with the Yankees, didn't reach his potential with the White Sox in Chicago, but pitched very well in the smaller markets in Montreal and Atlanta. Now with the Marlins, and the spotlight off again in Miami, Vazquez has excelled over the last two months. He got off to a slow start to the season, but in his last 11 starts, Vazquez has put up a 2.36 ERA and has an excellent strikeout-to-walk ratio of 57-13. As the season winds down and with the Marlins completely out of contention, there's no reason to believe that there will be any pressure for Vazquez to perform and he should be able to maintain his current form without problems.
The Padres counter with right-hander Tim Stauffer in today's matchup. Stauffer is 7-9 with a 3.53 ERA and has filled a gap nicely in San Diego's rotation this season. However, his numbers aren't as impressive given that he pitches in one of the best pitcher's parks in baseball. In addition, the workload may be starting to take its toll on Stauffer. He has thrown 153 innings this season, which far exceeds his innings pitched over the last several seasons, and it's beginning to show in his results. In his last outing, Stauffer surrendered nine earned runs in only three innings of work in a loss to the Reds. He has given up a total of eight home runs in his last two starts as well. This generally happens to less experienced starters this time of the season and you have to use that to your advantage as a handicapper. Neither of the offenses in this game is very overwhelming and the composition of the bullpens is fairly similar as well. As a result, this game should primarily come down to the performance of the two starting pitchers. With Vazquez pitching as well as he is and Stauffer starting to show some signs of possible fatigue, I'll take the Marlins as a nice underdog. |
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08-15-11 | New York Mets +101 v. San Diego Padres | 5-4 | Win | 101 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #911 New York Mets over San Diego Padres (10:05pm ET) The New York Mets are not a very good baseball team right now, but the good news is that the Padres are even worse. San Diego has been sitting at the bottom of the National League West for most of the season and there haven't been very many positive things to talk about. The team has struggled to score runs all year as they rank 26th in runs scored and no one in their lineup can claim that they're having an above average season. Their starting rotation has put up decent numbers, but mostly because of the ballpark that they pitch in. Today's starter, Aaron Harang, is the team leader in wins at 11 and has posted an ERA of 3.95. However, he has a 4.65 ERA away from Petco, proving that the ballpark has benefitted him greatly this season. He has also gotten off to a bad start in August in his first two starts. He's definitely past his prime and nowhere near the pitcher he was with the Reds a few years ago.
The Mets' season hasn't quite played out the way they would have liked but much of that has to do with the injuries that they have endured. They've still managed to stay competitive and were above .500 as late as last week before hitting a 5-game skid. Despite the setbacks, they have still fielded a top-10 hitting team and several of their starters have put together nice seasons. R.A. Dickey, today's starter for New York, has put up good numbers this season but has been unlucky on the won-loss side as his record is only 5-11. With a 3.75 ERA, the knuckleballer has put together another solid season after his impressive campaign for the Mets last season. One of the great things about betting on Dickey is that you know what you're going to get each start. Dickey is one of the most consistent starters in the National League as he hasn't allowed more than four earned runs in his last 16 starts. He keeps his team in the game and gives the bullpen a break by almost always working at least six innings. I expect him to do that again today against a weak-hitting Padres lineup. The Mets offense will take care of the rest and get the Mets the win today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-15-11 | St. Louis Cardinals -121 v. Pittsburgh Pirates | 2-6 | Loss | -121 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #901 St. Louis Cardinals over Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05pm ET) The Pittsburgh Pirates have finally come down to earth and are playing more like the Pirates that we have come to know over the last 20 years. After ascending to first place in the National League Central a few weeks back, albeit for a very short time, the Pirates have since gone 5-19 and have really struggled to score runs. Over that stretch the Pirates have only average 3.17 runs per game as a lot of the youngsters are now experiencing the pressures of expectations. That has St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Jake Westbrook licking his chops. Westbrook is 9-6 with a 4.74 ERA but he pitches much better on the road surprisingly. His ERA at Busch Stadium is 5.96 while it's well over two runs lower at 3.54 away from home. He's also gotten better as the season has progressed, posting an ERA of 3.96 in July and 3.21 so far in August.
The Pirates starter today is right-hander James McDonald. While he has been steady for most of the season for the Pirates, McDonald hasn't very fared very well of late as he's 0-2 with a 6.00 ERA in his last three starts. Seems like the same story for the entire Pittsburgh pitching staff as everyone is struggling at the same time currently. He faces an impressive St. Louis offense that's ranked 4th in the major leagues in runs scored. The Cardinals are also 8-3 in their last 11 games as a road favorite. They are playing well right now and are fighting to win the National League Central, while the Pirates are just plain not fighting at all. I'll take the Redbirds at a small price in this one. |
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08-13-11 | Tampa Bay Rays v. New York Yankees -138 | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 4 h 48 m | Show | |
5-unit Play Take #922 New York Yankees (-140) over Tampa Bay Rays (4:10pm EST) The New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays square off in the second game of this series in Yankees Stadium this afternoon. After one of their more disappointing performances at the plate in yesterday's loss to David Price, the Yankees look to pick it back up today against a much easier opponent on the mound. The highly-touted right-hander Jeremy Hellickson throws for the Rays today. Hellickson has posted pretty good numbers in his young career but he hasn't been as effective as most would think. While posting a very respectable 3.05 ERA in his 20 starts, Hellickson's strikeout rate has dropped over two batters per nine innings from last season and his walk rate has jumped well over one batter as well. In addition, Hellickson is stranding runners at an unbelievable rate this season. It's very difficult to continue preventing runs if you always have runners on base, especially with a lower strikeout rate. It's even more daunting when you have the likes of the Yankee lineup hitting with runners on base. The Bronx Bombers have been a tear at the plate lately averaging 6.57 runs per games in their last 14 matchups, all without the help of the injured A-Rod. Several players in the Yankee lineup have stepped up to fill the void of the missing superstar and don't expect them to let up following a disappointing loss with their ace on the hill yesterday.
Phil Hughes pitches for the Yankees today in this one and this is going to be one of the most important starts in his career. Joe Girardi commented on Thursday that the Yankees are going back to a five-man rotation starting next week. The two men competing for the fifth spot are A.J. Burnett and, you guessed it, Phil Hughes. As a result, I expect big things today for the talented right-hander who hasn't been able to put it together this year after battling back from injuries. He doesn't need to throw no-hitter kind of stuff because the Rays lineup is just not as formidable as it has been in recent years. Longoria has not been the same, Upton is struggling and several other role players haven't even hit their weight this season. I expect Hughes to go roughly six innings and turn it over to a very effective Yankees bullpen, and eventually to Mariano Rivera. Now Rivera has had some struggles of this own lately and the media has been pouncing on him. However, I'm not betting against Mariano to blow another save given his credentials, especially with the extra motivation after this past week. Rivera will close this one out and thinks will back to normal in the Bronx. Take the Yankees at home (where they are 39-24) at a price that you might not see this low the rest of the season in Yankee Stadium. This is my Game of the Week, which I easily hit last week in addition to my Game of the Month. I know value when I see it, and we have plenty of it in this matchup. |
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08-12-11 | New York Mets v. Arizona Diamondbacks -156 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #964 Arizona Diamondbacks over New York Mets (9:40pm EST) The New York Mets are crumbling. They've taken more punches than Rocky Balboa this season and they just can't hang in anymore. The latest in the long list of casualties is star shortstop Jose Reyes, the heart and soul of the Mets. Reyes went down with a hamstring injury last week on the same day that Daniel Murphy suffered a season-ending knee injury. This was shortly after the Mets shipped Carlos Beltran to the San Francisco Giants and waved the white flag on the season. New York is 3-8 in their last 11 and you get the feeling that if the Mets had the choice to just end the season right now, they would oblige.
The Mets go with rookie right-hander Dillon Gee today, making his 19th start of the season. Gee had a very impressive start to his season, but the National League seems to have finally caught on to the youngster lately. In his last six starts, Gee has a 5.20 ERA and has shown a lack of control by walking 16 batters in those starts. It's hard to imagine that Gee is going to improve much down the stretch based on what we've seen of him. Facing the 8th ranked offense in baseball today definitely won't be the recipe. The Arizona Diamondbacks can't complain about their situation. They sit atop the National League West division at 64-53 in a season where they were projected to be a last place team by some. They've exceeded expectations but have still managed to stay somewhat under the radar. That will change soon, but now's a good time to get on board before everyone else does. Right-hander Ian Kennedy pitches tonight for the D-backs and I absolutely love watching this guy pitch. He knows how to work a hitter and when to throw the right pitch. This is a breakout season for him as he's 14-3 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. But he, like the Diamondbacks teams, still isn't getting all of the respect he deserves. As a result, you're getting a great pitcher and a great team at a relatively low price in this matchup. |
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08-10-11 | Milwaukee Brewers v. St.Louis Cardinals -127 | 5-1 | Loss | -127 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
3 Unit Play Take #964 St. Louis Cardinals over Milwaukee Brewers (8:15pm ET) I played the Cardinals last night and they came up just short in extra innings in the first game of this big series. I like them again tonight for many of the same reasons, especially since they need this game to stay in the race. The two starting pitchers throwing in this matchup are not nearly as good as the two that went last night so we should see even more runs today. Left-hander Randy Wolf pitches for Milwaukee and while he has put up serviceable numbers this season, he doesn't overpower anyone and strong lineups usually get to him. He faced St. Louis last week and surrendered five earned runs in six innings of work, striking out only two batters. The Cardinals has also offense has been clicking, scoring six runs per game over their last 10 contests.
St. Louis sends Jake Westbrook to the hill and he has been pitching better than he has all season over his last five starts. He has posted a 3.19 ERA over that stretch and three of those starts were on the road. His underlying statistics say that he is better than his overall season ERA and I expect him to be an important piece to the Cardinals playoff run down the stretch. One of the biggest factors in this series is the home field advantage as Milwaukee has struggled on the road with a 25-35 mark. The Cardinals are also an amazing 39-20 at home against teams with winning records in their last 59 games. St. Louis needs this game more than the Brewers do and I expect the Cardinals to put a big number on the board in Busch Stadium for this one and get the W. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-10-11 | Kansas City Royals +127 v. Tampa Bay Rays | 7-8 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
3 Unit Play Take #975 Kansas City Royals over Tampa Bay Rays (7:10pm ET) I've said it before, but things are looking up in Kansas City. Their talented young hitters are finally coming through and they have a solid above-average major league lineup finally. There's plenty to be excited for the future and this team is has been playing well lately. The Royals are 11-9 in their last 20 games and have starter Felipe Paulino on the mound. Paulino has great stuff and has used it to strike out a career high 8.59 batters per nine innings this season. He came over from Colorado earlier in the season and has been very steady for Kansas City. In his 12 starts in the American League, the right-hander has only yielded more than 4 runs once, and that was only 5 runs allowed.
Starting pitcher Wade Davis goes for the Tampa Bay Rays and he has had a rough go of it this season. The once highly-touted prospect has gotten worse in each of his three seasons and many around baseball are now questioning whether or not he has what it takes to succeed in the major leagues. Davis' strikeout rate has deteriorated to only 4.4 batters per nine innings, less than half of his rate in the minor leagues and in his first major league season two years ago. It appears that he needs to change something drastic or else he's going to find himself back in the minor leagues again. In his last three starts he has 6.16 ERA, including a game against Kansas City where he gave up six runs in 5 1/3 innings. The Rays offense has also struggled for most of the season and they average only 4.1 runs per game against right-handers. Their last four games have been particularly bad as they have only averaged 2.5 runs per game. The Royals have the better starting pitcher in this matchup, the better offense and the better bullpen. On top of all that, they seem to have a new energy with some of their youngsters now in the majors playing as regulars with the big club. I love the Royals at an underdog at a nice price. |
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08-09-11 | Milwaukee Brewers v. St. Louis Cardinals -119 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -119 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
3 Unit Play Take #910 St. Louis Cardinals over Milwaukee Brewers (8:15pm ET) This is another huge series between the top two teams in the National League Central. As the Pirates and Reds have drifted away in the last few weeks, these two teams have separated themselves by playing some great baseball of late. The Brewers come in as winners of 20 of their last 28 while the Cardinals are 7-3 in their last 10. There are a lot of similarities between these two teams starting with the top-notch offenses. Both are in the top ten as the Cardinals rank fourth in runs scored in the majors while the Brewers rank ninth. These offenses also step it up a bit against right-handers, so we should expect to see some runs scored in this one. Slight edge to the Cardinals with a little bit better numbers and Rickie Weeks is on the disabled list for the Brewers.
The starting pitching staffs are also very good for both of these squads and we have a nice matchup today. Shaun Marcum goes for the Brew Crew and Edwin Jackson pitches for St. Louis. Marcum comes in at 10-3 with a 3.54 ERA but has had a lingering issue with his hip that affects him at times. He has also struggled against the Cardinals this season giving up nine runs in 13 innings of work. Edwin Jackson came over in a trade with the White Sox just recently and should be a welcome addition to the Cardinal rotation. He got shelled in his last outing against the Brewers but he's an underrated pitcher that has shown flashes of brilliance throughout his career. I expect him to put it all together in a much easier league to pitch in now. When it comes down to the bullpens, the Cardinals have better numbers overall but the Brewers addition of K-Rod helps. Overall, I'll give a slight edge to the Cardinals in pitching for today. The Brewers have struggled on the road this season at 24-35. The Cardinals haven't been dominant at home, but they obviously have a decent home field advantage. Both of these teams are hot and this is the start of a really big series that has playoff implications. The Cardinals have the slightly better hitting and pitching in this matchup and they're at home, so I'll take them at a small price in a game that they need more than the Brewers do. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-07-11 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. Arizona Diamondbacks -107 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 22 m | Show |
10 Unit Play Take #916 Arizona Diamondbacks over Los Angeles Dodgers (4:10pm ET) I'll be completely honest. It took me awhile to become an Arizona Diamondback believer this season. Up until just recently I thought they were playing over their heads and would eventually come back down to earth. Their offense has been sensational all season long and their starting pitchers have been maturing must faster than expected. It doesn't hurt that they play in a weaker National League West division, but I'm now a believer. This team is good enough to go to the postseason and possibly make a little noise if they get there. Ian Kennedy is one of the reasons why this team has exceeded expectations so far and he is the starter for the D-backs today. The former Yankees top prospect is finally coming into his own and has been mowing down National League hitters to the tune of a 3.14 ERA to go along with his sparkling 13-3 record. He's been particularly effective in his last four starts sporting a 1.50 ERA with a 28-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The sky's the limit for this right-hander and he doesn't get nearly enough credit for what he is accomplishing this season.
The Los Angeles Dodgers counter with left-hander Clayton Kershaw, who is no slouch in his own right. In his fourth major league season, Kershaw has established himself as one of the best in the National League. With a 2.68 ERA, an average of nearly 10 strikeouts per innings and a 13-4 record, you have to put Kershaw in the Cy Young race. He's also been on a tear over his last five starts with a 0.71 ERA and a 39-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio. So what we've established so far is that we have two excellent starting pitchers in this matchup, and both of them are pitching extremely well. I'll give a slight edge to Kershaw as he puts up better numbers, but remember that he pitches in LA while Kennedy pitches in Phoenix. As a result, the discrepancy is not as big as it seems due to the differences in the ballparks. Throw in the home field advantage in this game and you've got a fairly even matchup. However, we're forgetting one key element in this game - the offenses. Arizona averages 4.62 runs per game against left-handers while the Dodgers only average 3.65 runs per game against right-handers. That's nearly a one-run advantage per game, which is huge. Based on that fact, the D-backs should be a much bigger favorite in this one. And don't forget, the D-backs are sitting in first place with everything in the world to play for and the Dodgers have been out the race for months and are more worried about their financial solvency than they are about winning baseball games. The value definitely resides with the Diamondbacks today. |
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08-07-11 | Toronto Blue Jays -135 v. Baltimore Orioles | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 45 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play Take #917 Toronto Blue Jays over Baltimore Orioles (1:35pm ET) The Toronto Blue Jays are one of the Top 10 teams in baseball. Their record wouldn't indicate so, but if the Blue Jays played in another division, they'd likely be in the playoff hunt and sitting 10+ games over .500. However, they just happen to play in one of the best divisions of all-time and have to struggle just to compete against teams that spend twice as much money as they do. That being said, it's easy to find value on the Jays if you catch them in the right spot. Today's one of those games as left-hander Ricky Romero pitches for Toronto. Romero has turned in a marvelous 2011 campaign with a 2.98 ERA and 1.20 WHIP pitching against the best offenses in baseball. He's coming off back-to-back masterpieces, including a win against Baltimore on July 27 where he surrendered only four hits and no runs in 8 1/3 innings. He was also very impressive in his other start against Baltimore earlier in the year.
Right-hander Alfredo Simon starts for the Orioles in today's game. This will only be his sixth start of the season and while he has put up serviceable numbers, he's still very raw and learning how to utilize all of his skills. He faced off against Toronto on July 27 and gave up three runs in five innings and didn't look overly impressive. Going up against a potent Blue Jay lineup the second time around should prove to be even more difficult for this youngster as hitters will adjust to him. Toronto ranks 5th in all of baseball in runs scored and may have the most valuable player in the American League in Jose Bautista. The Orioles offense came into 2011 with high expectations after the signing of several veteran hitters, but they have sputtered and are only the 19th ranked offense in baseball. They are missing several key players with injuries and have only averaged 3.50 runs per game in their last 10. This is one of those plays where everything points to one team, in this case being the Toronto Blue Jays. They have the better starting pitcher throwing, the much better offense, the better bullpen and even have a better defense. The line on this game should be at least 15-20 cents higher. The Blue Jays are a good road team and they should have no problems in Camden Yards for this contest. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-06-11 | Atlanta Braves v. New York Mets +115 | Top | 7-11 | Win | 115 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
10 Unit Play Take #962 New York Mets over Atlanta Braves (7:10pm ET) Whether or not the New York Mets are in the playoff hunt, they always get up for a series against their nemesis the Atlanta Braves. The Mets are playing spoilers for the rest of the season and there's nobody's season that they'd love to spoil more than the Braves. New York sends Jonathon Niese to the mound tonight, and he has done everything that has been asked of him this season. The left-hander is 10-8 with a 3.94 ERA and has averaged 7.75 strikeouts per nine innings while only walking 2.61 batters per innings. He's on my short list as one of the most underrated starting pitchers in the National League and he should step it up a notch against an arch rival. The Mets offense is also a bit underrated ranking 7th in all of baseball in batting average and 4th on on-base percentage despite a sea of injuries throughout the season. They've scuffled during their current five-game losing streak but they catch a struggling Tommy Hanson in this game. Hanson is as solid as they come but hasn't been right in his last four starts with a 6.56 ERA. Hanson also lost his only start to the Mets all season.
The Braves offense is without their leader and stating catcher Brian McCann. McCann is the team's best hitter and has been missed since he went on the disabled list. Nate McLouth is also out, taking away yet some of the depth, and Chipper Jones may be back but can't be counted on to be 100%. This team has been very inconsistent scoring runs throughout the season and I expect them to struggle against Niese as they only average 3.17 runs per game against southpaws. In their last 10 games they've been equally as bad, averaging only 3.23 runs per contest. With Niese on the hill, I'd be surprised if the Braves muster up more than 3 runs in tonight's game. I'll take the value in the home underdog here. |
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08-04-11 | New York Yankees -108 v. Chicago White Sox | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
10 Unit Play Take #965 New York Yankees over Chicago White Sox (8:10pm ET) The New York Yankees have dominated this 4-game series so far, winning the first three games by a combined score of 27-9, including an 18-7 winner last night. In doing so, the Yankees have sucked all of the life out of the Chicago White Sox, who are now 6.5 games out of first in the American League Central and are fading fast. There's a huge psychological edge for the Bronx Bombers here as they can take advantage of a defeated Chicago team. Even White Sox Manager Ozzie Guillen has seemingly thrown his hands up in the air and claimed that he doesn't have the answers.
New York looks to Ivan Nova in his second start after coming back from a brief stint in the minor leagues. He was impressive in his last outing yielding only two runs in seven full innings against Baltimore. In watching his last start, it seems like he may have all of his mechanics straightened out now and be on his way to getting back on track. The Yankee offense is without A-Rod, which is a huge loss but it hasn't shown lately as the Pinstripers have averaged 9.3 runs per game in their last 6 games, all of which were victories. There are just too many weapons on offense to account for on this squad. The White Sox go with right-hander Philip Humber, who has been one of most steady starting pitchers in the American League. However, Humber has been struggling lately with an 8.79 ERA in his last three starts and it seems like the former Yankee may be wearing down a bit in the second half. His strikeout rate has also been decreasing compared to previous years and that is starting to catch up with him. The Yankees feast on struggling starters and this is a great spot to do it. The White Sox lineup will likely be without Paul Konerko who injured his calf the other day. Konerko is the heart and soul of the White Sox offense and the lack of his presence is a huge loss. All signs point to the Yankees to complete the four-game sweep and the price is right at only -115. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-04-11 | Texas Rangers v. Detroit Tigers +138 | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 50 m | Show | |
3 Unit Play Take #962 Detroit Tigers over Texas Rangers (1:05pm ET) This early afternoon matchup is the last of a three-game series where the Detroit Tigers have played well enough to capture the first two games by one-run each. The Texas Rangers are definitely reeling at 3-7 in their last 10 games, and only a game in front of the Los Angeles Angels in the American League West. This is the last game of a 6-game road trip for Texas and they'll be happy to be heading home to try and right the ship. That should give the Tigers a leg up, especially since they are one of the best home teams in baseball over the last 3 years.
Alexi Ogando starts for the Rangers and he has been exceptional in his first year as a starter, but he's getting into unchartered territory. He's up to 125 innings pitched, which far exceeds the workload he had been accustomed to as a reliever previously. In addition, he's thrown at least 102 pitches in each of his last five starts and there's no doubt he has to be a little bit gassed. It's also not likely that the Rangers offense is going to pick up all of the slack either as they only average 3.92 runs per game on the road this season. The Tigers counter with Brad Penny, who is trying to regain his form from prior years. While he has struggled at times, he has stayed healthy all season and given the Tigers 127 reliable innings. He won his only start against the Rangers this season, holding them to only three runs in 6 2/3 innings. The Tiger offense has been one of the top offenses in the American League all season and they are even better at home where they average 4.70 runs per game. The Rangers are 5-16 in their last 21 in Detroit and I expect the Tigers to bring out the brooms in this one. The Tigers are a great play as an underdog here. |
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08-03-11 | Baltimore Orioles v. Kansas City Royals -119 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
10 Unit Play Take #926 Kansas City Royals over Baltimore Orioles (8:10pm ET) The future is bright for the Kansas City Royals. They have one of the best young lineups in baseball, including some potential cornerstones in Alex Gordon, Billy Butler and Eric Hosmer. The young infusion of talent has catapulted the Kansas City offense from one of the worst in the American League over the last five years now to one of the better ones, averaging a respectable 4.39 runs per game in a year where runs have been hard to come by for everyone. Things are finally starting to look up and this team has an energy about them that should keep them competitive down the stretch and into next season. Another young talent that the Royals have is right-hander Luke Hochevar, who is the starter in tonight's game. Hochevar was a highly touted prospect in the Royals system but has struggled since being placed in the rotation three years ago. He has great stuff and has finally been showing it lately, posting a 3.26 ERA in his last three starts against Boston, Tampa Bay and Minnesota. In watching a few of his recent starts, he definitely has more confidence on the mound and is locating his pitches better.
The Baltimore Orioles, on the other hand, have been going in a different direction of late after starting the season very strong. The O's are 10-26 in their last 36 games, as Baltimore's aging veterans seemed to have called it a season and are mailing it in every night. This team was built to compete now, but residing in the American League East makes that very difficult. The Orioles send right-hander Jeremy Guthrie to the hill in this one. Guthrie has been serviceable over the years, but he is not overpowering and has struggled this season at 5-14. He has been more solid of late, but he has thrown a ton of pitches in his last 4 outings averaging 109 pitches per game. He's never been a consistent 100+ pitch guy and I expect that his arm might be a little tired coming into this matchup. I biggest advantage here is the Royals have a respectable 28-30 home record while the Orioles are only 17-35 on the road. That's the worst road record in all of baseball. Another overlooked aspect in handicapping baseball is the bullpen. The arms that are available in the pen for the Royals have a combined ERA of 3.41, where the Orioles are almost a run higher at 4.34. With the starting pitchers in this matchup, the bullpens are going to be very important and will likely get 3+ inning of work each. I love the Royals in this spot as these teams are clearly going in different directions right now, and they have nearly every advantage in this matchup. That's why the Royals are my pick for the Game of the Month. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-03-11 | Chicago Cubs -105 v. Pittsburgh Pirates | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
3 Unit Play Take #909 Chicago Cubs over Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05pm ET) The Pittsburgh Pirates are starting to feel the pressure of expectations and they have not responded well at all since they had a short stint in first place in the National League Central nearly two weeks ago. The Pirates have lost their last 5 games and are 3-10 in their last 13. It's hard to blame the youngsters as they haven't been in this position before and don't know what it feels like to be in a race. To make matters worse, the Pirates send a struggling Charlie Morton to the mound. Morton has a 5.95 ERA in his last 4 starts and has had a noticeable dip in his velocity. The Pirates haven't been helping matters offensively, averaging only 3.31 runs per game during their 13-game skid.
Matt Garza goes to the bump for the Chicago Cubs, and he has been solid all season long. Garza is striking out a career-high nine batters per game on the season and has kept his ERA in the 3's despite a bad defense behind him. The Cubs lineup is also a bit rejuvenated as they are finally 100% healthy and have been hitting the ball well scoring 22 runs in their last 3 games. Many thought that the Cubs would trade away several of their top players before the deadline, but the Cubs stood pat and are insistent on competing the rest of the way. There's really no pressure on the Cubs right now and they played very well in this same situation last year down the stretch. I look for the Cubs to get to Morton early in this one and put up a crooked number. |
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08-02-11 | Arizona Diamondbacks +140 v. San Francisco Giants | 6-1 | Win | 140 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
3 Unit Play Take #965 Arizona Diamondbacks over San Francisco Giants (10:15pm ET) Nobody expected the Arizona Diamondbacks to be in the National League West race this season, but all of a sudden they find themselves in the middle of a big series against the San Francisco Giants. Sitting only one game out of first place after an impressive lashing of Matt Cain last night, the D-Backs now believe they can win this division. It won't be easy, as they have to face the freak Tim Lincecum tonight, but they are riding high with confidence right now. Arizona has somewhat quietly put together a nice season by assembling the third best offense in the National League and developing a couple of nice arms in their rotation. One of those arms, Daniel Hudson, pitches tonight for the D-Backs. Hudson came over in a trade from the White Sox last season and he has been one of the mainstays of the rotation ever since. In his short career, the right-hander has managed an ERA of 3.28 and a WHIP of 1.16 and has shown a mastery of the strike zone allowing only two walks per nine innings. The fact that he has gotten little attention helps us in this one as he faces one of the big names in the sport.
Tim Lincecum has built up a reputation as one of the best and it is well-deserved. However, he hasn't been the same pitcher this season and he hasn't been throwing the ball quite as well of late. While his ERA and WHIP numbers have been good, a closer inspection of his last few games shows he has struggled with control. He has 15 walks in his last 25 outings and the number of pitches he has thrown this season may be catching up with him. Lincecum has thrown over 100 pitches in 19 of his 22 starts, many times going over the 110 mark. With all of the torque he puts behind each and every pitch with his unusual delivery, it's no wonder that he isn't as effective in August and September throughout his career. We'll use that fact to our advantage in this one and take a quality team at a great dog number. |
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08-02-11 | Minnesota Twins +154 v. Los Angeles Angels | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
3 Unit Play Take #977 Minnesota Twins over Los Angeles Angels (10:05pm ET) Ervin Santana is riding high after throwing the first no-hitter of his career last Thursday against Cleveland. He's always had electric stuff and he finally put it all together in one outing to fully dominate for nine innings. But pitchers coming off of a no-hitter have historically struggled in their next start and Santana has consistently shown throughout his career that he is wildly inconsistent from start to start. This is a contrarian play for me, as the public will be all over the Los Angeles Angels in this one given the Santana fanfare. The price definitely reflects it, as the Minnesota Twins are easily getting an extra 10 cents or so.
After a miserable first two months, the Twins have quietly posted a 33-21 mark in their last 54 games. That's over .600 baseball and they have been battling the injury bug all season long, so you have to give the Twins some credit as they haven't given up. Brian Duensing starts for Minnesota tonight and he has been pitching well as of late, sporting a 3.45 ERA in his last five outings. He has been a respectable pitcher for the Twins since he broke into the rotation last season but he doesn't get much attention. In other words, he's exactly the kind of guy that you want to back as an underdog in this spot. The Twins hitters have also been helping out their starters quite a bit over the last couple of months, climbing up from one of the worst hitting teams in the American League in the beginning of the season now back to respectability. I expect them to take advantage of a Santana, who figures to have some kind of letdown after the no-hitter. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-02-11 | St. Louis Cardinals +116 v. Milwaukee Brewers | 8-7 | Win | 116 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play Take #959 St. Louis Cardinals over Milwaukee Brewers (8:10pm ET) The St. Louis Cardinals enter this matchup with a must-win type mentality as they fell to 3.5 games behind the Milwaukee Brewers last night in the first of the 3-game series. The Cardinals made vast improvements to their team before the trade deadline and seemed to have filled some of the holes to make them a more complete squad. They have all of the pieces, now they just need to execute down the stretch. The Cardinals go with Jaime Garcia, who has been their most consistent starter all season long and has the stuff to eventually take over as the team's ace. He has a 3.14 ERA this season and a 1.25 WHIP, very solid for the second-year left-hander. He comes into a big spot in Milwaukee with a chance to show that he can win big games for St. Louis.
The Brewers lead the National Central division, but have been sort of doing it with smoke and mirrors this season. While they sit 12 games over .500, they have only outscored their opponents by a total of 9 runs all season! They've been winning a lot of close games and have had a lot of breaks go their way. It's hard to maintain that for an entire season, and I like going against trends of this nature. Shaun Marcum pitches for the Brew Crew and he has not been 100% for the last few weeks. Marcum has been nursing some shoulder stiffness, but has still managed to put together decent outings in his last several starts. However, there's no telling when it could resurface and really affect his velocity. Additionally, the Cardinals hit right-handers very well, averaging 4.95 runs per game. I expect the potent Cardinals lineup will keep Marcum on the ropes for most of this one in a desperate situation. The Brewers offense is without a key cog in starting second basemen Rickie Weeks. Weeks was injured against the Cubs last week and is expected to miss 2-6 weeks, which is a huge blow to the middle of the lineup. The Brewers already struggle against lefties, only averaging 3.90 runs per game, so runs will be hard to come by in this one. I'll take the better hitting team with the better starting pitcher, in a must-win game type game. |
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08-02-11 | Florida Marlins v. New York Mets -127 | 4-3 | Loss | -127 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
3 Unit Play Take #956 New York Mets over Florida Marlins (7:10pm ET) There isn't much at stake for these two clubs who sit in the middle of the National League East division, firmly behind the Phillies and the Braves in third and fourth place. Neither one of these teams is going to make the playoffs, but they surely haven't given up this season as both have played great baseball over the last couple of weeks. Although the New York Mets have dropped their last 3, they had won 8 of 11 before that and have seemed to find a spark as several of their key players have come back from injuries. With Jose Reyes and David Wright in the lineup, the Mets have an extra hop in their step average 5.6 runs per game over their last 10 games. Despite trading away Carlos Beltran, things aren't so bad in New York. The Mets go with left-hander Chris Capuano on the hill in this game. He has sort of been a forgotten man after being ravaged by injuries upon leaving the Brewers two years ago where has was an All-Star. He has seemed to regain most of his form lately and is flying under the radar this season.
Rookie left-hander Brad Hand is the starter for the Florida Marlins today, making only his seventh start of his career. While he has posted a nice ERA of 2.73 in his first six outings, don't be fooled by this shallow statistic. Hand is averaging over six walks per nine innings, while only striking out an average of five. His batted balls have only fallen for hits 15% of the time, which is roughly half the normal average. Needless to say, he has caught a lot of breaks early on in his career. This will catch up with him as the Mets lineup has the horsepower to do some serious damage. I won't be surprised at all if Hand doesn't make it to the fifth inning. The Mets are undoubtedly the right side in this matchup. |
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08-02-11 | Texas Rangers v. Detroit Tigers -105 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
10 Unit Play Take #968 Detroit Tigers over Texas Rangers (7:05pm ET) The Detroit Tigers and Texas Rangers begin an important 3-game set in Comerica today. Both teams are on top of their respective divisions, but both hold very narrow leads with teams breathing down their necks. These are the series where teams can make statements and prove to themselves that they are playoff worthy. The Tigers go with hard-throwing Max Scherzer, who has been very sharp in his last 4 starts. Scherzer has posted a 1.95 ERA in that stretch with a 22-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He has been fighting inconsistency all year but finally seems to be getting into a nice groove. Scherzer is also a vastly better pitcher at home this season and the Tigers are one of the better home teams in baseball with a 31-24 record. With the pressure on for this series, I think home field advantage plays an even bigger role.
The Rangers on the other hand, have been banged up lately and are without Julio Borbon and Adrian Beltre, who are both on the disabled list. Nelson Cruz and Elvis Andrus are also hurting and aren't likely to be 100% if they do play in this game. In addition, the Rangers offense just isn't the same on the road, averaging only 3.9 runs per game. Texas sends Colby Lewis to the mound for this matchup, who hasn't been nearly as good as he was last season. His strikeouts are down significantly and he hasn't been able to induce as many groundballs, leading to mediocre results. I expect the Tigers to jump on him early and get into the Rangers pen before long. I like the home team at a very small price in this important statement series. |
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