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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-03-13 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Los Angeles Angels -161 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #920 Los Angeles Angels over Toronto Blue Jays (9:05pm ET) Jered Weaver is back. After missing six weeks with a fractured elbow, the crafty right-hander has come back stronger than ever. In his last seven starts, Weaver is 4-1 with a 1.31 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. It does not get much better than that and today he'll look to keep it going against the Toronto Blue Jays. The Jays' offense has been a disappointment this season to say the least. Many thought this would be a top three offense in the American League with the additions of Jose Reyes and Melky Cabrera. But they found themselves just in the middle of the pack on a park-adjusted basis. Right-hander Esmil Rogers goes for Toronto and will try to keep the Angels hitters at bay with one of the hottest pitchers in baseball on the other side. Rogers has been up and down this season and has started 11 games and come out of the bullpen 23 times. He's flashed some great stuff in some of his starts, but others he seemingly is lost on the mound. He's still learning how to pitch as most of his career has been spent in the minor leagues even though he is nearly 28 years old. The Angels have been hitting the ball well lately, so Rogers will have his work cut out for him against a dangerous lineup. Neither of these teams has their heads up right now with the way their respective seasons have gone, but with the way Weaver has been throwing he has value at this price.
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08-03-13 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Cincinnati Reds -154 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #958 Cincinnati Reds over St. Louis Cardinals (7:10pm ET) The Cincinnati Reds didn't appear ready for the St. Louis Cardinals in the series opener yesterday, as they were crushed 13-3. But that was certainly a wakeup call for a team that really needs some big wins to validate their playoff hopes and fuel them down the stretch. Today they get a much more favorable pitching matchup as they go up against right-hander Jake Westbrook. The 35-year old has been doing it with smoke and mirrors all season, but there's no way he can maintain an ERA anywhere near the 3.18 he has now. He's been very fortunate to avoid the home run ball and is stranding an unusually high rate of runners on base. He's currently walking more batters than he is striking out, which is a recipe for disaster - especially against a patient Reds team. Tony Cingrani gets the ball for the Reds and he's been very solid as a rookie. The southpaw is 4-1 with a 2.90 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 17 games in 2013. His best start of the season was his last one against the Dodgers in Los Angeles. He went seven innings without allowing a run and surrendered just one hit and one walk while striking out 11. But even better, he hasn't faced the Cardinals this season, so Cingrani will have a huge advantage. He's very deceptive and hard to pick up the first couple of times around, so even a good St. Louis lineup could be baffled today. This is a lot bigger game for the Reds than it is for the Cardinals after yesterday's thrashing. We'll take Cincinnati at home with the much better pitcher today.
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08-02-13 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Cincinnati Reds -115 | 13-3 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 12 m | Show | |
1 Unit Play. Take #958 Cincinnati Reds over St. Louis Cardinals (7:10pm ET) The St. Louis Cardinals are a shell shocked squad right now. Coming off a tough sweep in Atlanta last weekend, the Cardinals then headed into the biggest series of the season in Pittsburgh. It only got worse from there as the Cardinals have lost the first four against the Pirates heading into Thursday
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08-02-13 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Boston Red Sox -185 | 7-6 | Loss | -185 | 4 h 14 m | Show | |
1 Unit Play. Take Boston over Arizona (7:10 pm MLB.tv) This is an early line way play from Doc
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08-01-13 | Seattle Mariners -110 v. Boston Red Sox | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 45 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #917 Seattle Mariners over Boston Red Sox (7:10pm ET) The Seattle Mariners have cooled off a bit, but they are still an undervalued commodity in the betting markets. They are 15-9 in their last 24 games and have brought home bettors over six units during that stretch. Today they send their ace Felix Hernandez to the hill to take on the Boston Red Sox. Hernandez has been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the last few years, but this year he is taking it to another level. He
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08-01-13 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Pittsburgh Pirates -111 | Top | 13-0 | Loss | -111 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #904 Pittsburgh Pirates over St. Louis Cardinals (7:05pm ET) The Pittsburgh Pirates look to earn a rare five game sweep of the St. Louis Cardinals tonight in PNC Park. This was the biggest series for the Pirates franchise in 20+ years and they are definitely answering the bell. They came into the series down 1.5 games in the NL Central and now have a 2.5 game lead coming into today's contest. Right-hander Charlie Morton goes for Pittsburgh and he's done a fine job after being inserted into the rotation mid-season due to injuries. He comes in 3-2 with a 3.59 ERA and 1.29 WHIP and hasn't had a really bad outing in his eight starts. The Cardinals have not been hitting the ball lately and are now without team leader Yadier Molina, which will hurt significantly on offense and defense. St. Louis is averaging a meager 1.4 runs per game over the last seven games. St. Louis will turn to Joe Kelly as they look to stop the bleeding. Kelly has pitched out of the bullpen for most of the season but was added to the rotation about two weeks ago. He's pitched alright but surely won't be able to give the Cardinals more than five or six innings. That leaves three of four innings for the shaky bullpen in the late innings - where the Pirates thrive. Pittsburgh has one of the best bullpens in baseball, so if this one is close late in the game the Pirates are big favorites. Pittsburgh has too much momentum here and I think they complete the five-game sweep tonight.
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07-31-13 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Tampa Bay Rays -172 | 7-0 | Loss | -172 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #978 Tampa Bay Rays over Arizona Diamondbacks (7:10pm ET) Smart personnel decisions, the best manager in the game and fundamentally sound baseball. Those are three of the main reasons that the Tampa Bay Rays have excelled over the last few years despite being one of the lowest payroll teams in baseball. They don't have tons of superstars and they don't get a lot of attention, but that's why the Rays can provide some value on the betting side of things. Today they are at home versus an Arizona Diamondbacks team that has been sputtering of late. Arizona has lost 8 of 12 and has seen their NL West slip away to the red hot Dodgers. Today they go up against a tough right-hander in Jeremy Hellickson of the Rays. The 26-year old is 10-3 with a 4.48 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 21 starts this season. He's increased his strikeout rate and decreased his walks from last season and his ERA will come down with a little more luck. He's pitched his worst with runners on base and has registered one of the worst strand rates in the league at just 69%. Left-hander Wade Miley will toe the rubber for the Diamondbacks. He's put together another pretty solid season - nothing sensational but he keeps his team in the game every time out. However, the Rays the best in baseball against southpaws so Miley will have his work cut out for him. The Rays also have a big home field advantage that is amplified given the fact that the D-Backs don't come to Tropicana Field often. All signs point to a Tampa Bay winner today and that's where our money is.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-30-13 | New York Mets v. Miami Marlins -120 | 4-2 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #912 Miami Marlins over New York Mets (7:10pm ET) The New York Mets take on the Miami Marlins in a game featuring the two best teams in the NL East over the last six weeks. That's right, the Mets and Marlins have both played over .500 ball since the middle of June and neither seems to be rolling over for the opposition despite the fact that they aren't in contention. Both teams are also getting their young guys in the lineup to gain some experience for next season. Today's starting pitchers Zack Wheeler and Nathan Eovaldi both fit that description and should provide a nice glimpse into the future for both clubs. I like both of these pitchers, but the publicity for Wheeler has been so overblown that his lines are getting inflated. Eovaldi is the much better pitcher at this point but he is hidden in Miami and most don't know his name quite yet. He has more experience than Wheeler at this point and better peripheral statistics as well. I also like the direction that Miami's lineup is going. They have a healthy Giancarlo Stanton and have brought along some new youngsters like Christian Yelich and Ed Lucas, who seem to be fitting in pretty well so far. I think these teams will play about even the rest of the 2013 season, but with Miami at home in this one with the better starting pitcher, I think we get some value backing them today.
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07-30-13 | Washington Nationals +120 v. Detroit Tigers | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 37 m | Show | |
10 Unit Play. Take #927 Washington Nationals over Detroit Tigers (7:05pm ET) We have a great pitching matchup in Detroit tonight as Anibal Sanchez and Stephen Strasburg duel it out. Sanchez has put up very good numbers for the Tigers this season, but lately he hasn
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07-30-13 | St. Louis Cardinals G1 v. Pittsburgh Pirates G1 -155 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 24 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #906 Pittsburgh Pirates over St. Louis Cardinals (7:05pm ET) The biggest series of the season for the Pittsburgh Pirates went off with a bang last night as the Bucs won 9-2 in front of a packed house in PNC Park. The atmosphere was electric and you could feel the Pirate players feeding off of it early on. I expect more of the same today as the Cardinals are reeling a bit after getting swept by the Braves in a series where they scored a combined three runs and now getting crushed by the Pirates to open an important four game series. It was bound to happen eventually. The Cardinals were fortunate to be where they were with their unsustainable hitting with runners on base and in scoring position. Now the regression is coming and I think it will come hard. We're playing the Pirates in both games of the doubleheader today for this reason. The pitching matchups also favor Pittsburgh today with A.J. Burnett going up against Lance Lynn and Tyler Lyons dueling Brandon Cumpton. The Pirates are trying to prove they belong and I think they have a much better chance of sweeping this doubleheader than the Cardinals do. Take Pittsburgh in both games of the doubleheader today.
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07-29-13 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Pittsburgh Pirates -140 | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 26 h 1 m | Show | |
2 Unit Play. Take #952 Pittsburgh Pirates over St. Louis Cardinals (7:05pm ET) A huge showdown series starts tonight in Pittsburgh as the Pirates host the St. Louis Cardinals in the first of four games between the top two teams in the National League Central. The Cardinals currently have the best record in baseball, but the Pirates are right behind them just two games back. The general consensus is that the Cardinals have more staying power and that the Pirates could fade back a bit in the division race. I simply don
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07-29-13 | Chicago (A): J Danks v. Cleveland: Mcallister -164 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 12 m | Show | |
1 Unit Play. #962 Take Cleveland over Chicago White Sox (7:05 pm) This is an early line value play.
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07-29-13 | Tampa Bay Rays -113 v. Boston Red Sox | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 31 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #967 Tampa Bay Rays over Boston Red Sox (7:05pm ET) This is a makeup game due to rain last Thursday, but a very important one between the Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox. These two teams have been neck and neck lately in the division and that's due to the Rays torrid run since the end of June. Tampa Bay is a scorching 21-4 in their last 25 games and starting pitching has been the main ingredient to its success. Their starter's ERA during the run is under 2.40 and their WHIP is below 1.00. David Price has definitely contributed to that success as he has thrown three complete games in his last four starts and has a 1.76 ERA over his last five starts. He's one of the best pitchers in the game today and is only going to get better. Left-hander Felix Doubront gets the ball for the Red Sox today. He's pitched fairly well this season, but the Rays hit southpaws extremely well so he'll have his work cut out for him. This is a pitching rematch of last Wednesday, when Price and the Rays came out on top 5-1. I don't expect much to change today and we'll back the red hot Rays at a short price with their best pitcher on the hill.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-27-13 | Pittsburgh Pirates -146 v. Miami Marlins | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show | |
3 Unit Play Take #955 Pittsburgh (-150) over Miami (7:10 pm ET)
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-27-13 | Minnesota Twins v. Seattle Mariners -137 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -137 | 21 h 24 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #972 Seattle Mariners over Minnesota Twins (4:10pm ET) The Seattle Mariners have continued to put money in our pockets and today we get another great opportunity to back them. The M
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07-27-13 | Tampa Bay Rays -114 v. New York Yankees | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 3 h 21 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #967 Tampa Bay Rays over New York Yankees (1:05pm ET) As hot as the Mariners have been, the Tampa Bay Rays have been even hotter. After last night
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07-25-13 | Cincinnati: M Latos v. Los Angeles: Z Greinke -128 | 5-2 | Loss | -128 | 27 h 23 m | Show | |
1 unit play. Take #964 Los Angeles Dodgers over Cincinnati Reds (10:10pm ET) The Los Angeles Dodgers look to keep their momentum going as they come back home to host the Cincinnati Reds in a four game series. As of Wednesday night, the Dodgers are 22-5 in their last 27 games and have taken over first place in the National League West. The offense has been unstoppable after adding Yasiel Puig to the mix and getting Hanley Ramirez and several other players back from the disabled list. Their starting pitchers have also taken it up a notch and the relievers have done their jobs in closing out the late innings. It
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07-25-13 | Minnesota: K Correia v. Seattle: H Iwakuma -185 | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
1 Unit Play. #978 Take Seattle over Minnesota (10:10 pm MLB.tv) Never like to lay this much but this is a pitching mismatch and we cannot afford to pass this up. Seattle still has visions of getting to the .500 mark and in order to do that they most beat up on the bad teams especially when they are playing at home.
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07-24-13 | Philadelphia Phillies +160 v. St. Louis Cardinals | 3-11 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 19 m | Show | |
1 Unit Play. Take #957 Philadelphia Phillies over St. Louis Cardinals (8:15pm ET) The Philadelphia Phillies have some tough decisions to make over the next week or so. The trade deadline is approaching fast and the Phils are in the unenviable position of deciding between going for it now or possibly adding some pieces for the future. As a result, the next few games are crucial as it appears that GM Ruben Amaro Jr. is going to wait until the deadline to make a determination. Today they go up against a very good St. Louis Cardinals team
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07-24-13 | Tampa Bay Rays -107 v. Boston Red Sox | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #921 Tampa Bay Rays over Boston Red Sox (7:10pm ET) The Tampa Bay Rays seem to be the forgotten team in the American League every year. When talks about World Series contenders take place, the Rays are often excluded due to their small market status. But the Rays are right there every year and 2013 is no exception. Tampa Bay now finds itself just 1.5 games out of first after winning 18 of their last 21 games. They are the hottest team in baseball and people are finally starting to pay close attention to Joe Maddon's squad. But that doesn't mean that the betting markets have priced them correctly. The Rays are only small favorites today in Boston despite sending one of the best pitchers in baseball to the mound in David Price. Since returning from the disabled list, all Price has done is go 3-1 with a 1.97 ERA and 0.75 WHIP. Even more impressive, he has a K/BB ratio of 23-1 in those four starts. Clearly Price is back to his old self after missing two months, and he'll be fresher than most other starters for the second half. Boston counters with southpaw Felix Doubront. He comes in 7-3 with a 3.92 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 18 games this season. He's been fairly steady for the BoSox this season, but Tampa Bay has been red hot and feasts on left-handed pitching so I don't expect him to get past the five inning mark today. The Rays are playing unbelievable baseball right now and they should be able to get a win with their best pitcher on the mound.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-24-13 | Cleveland Indians v. Seattle Mariners +100 | Top | 10-1 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 28 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #920 Seattle Mariners over Cleveland Indians (3:40pm ET) Until the Seattle Mariners are taken seriously, we will continue to call their number at the betting window. The M's are an underdog at home versus a team that they are playing much better than right now and probably will have a better record than very shortly. The Mariners are now 16-9 in their last 25 games despite playing the toughest schedule in the majors during that span. Two left-handers take the hill in today's matchup - Scott Kazmir and Joe Saunders. Both of them are better pitchers than their surface stats give them credit for, but Saunders is a totally different pitcher in Seattle than he is anywhere else. In 2013, his ERA is over two runs better at home versus the road at 3.11. Kazmir has had a nice comeback this season, but he's slipped up enough lately to heed some warning. He's walked three batters in each of his last three outings and his strikeouts have been declining steadily as the season has worn on. Coming into this season, Kazmir had pitched a total of only 1 2/3 innings in two seasons, so it would understandable if the 92 innings he's thrown this season is starting to take its toll. We'll continue to ride the streaking Mariners today.
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07-23-13 | Cleveland Indians v. Seattle Mariners -111 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #978 Seattle Mariners (-110) over Cleveland Indians (10:10pm ET) This may sound like a broken record based on our selections over the last couple of weeks, but we like the Seattle Mariners. They are a perfect value team that flies under the radar and they've certainly proved that recently. They are 15-9 in their last 24 games despite playing the toughest schedule in baseball during that stretch. The M's don't look like much on paper, especially offensively, but when you consider the fact that they play in one of the best pitcher's parks in baseball they aren't too bad. We'll continue to put our money on the line with them while they're hot and not getting any respect.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-23-13 | Tampa Bay Rays +140 v. Boston Red Sox | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 30 m | Show | |
2 Unit Play. Take #965 Tampa Bay Rays over Boston Red Sox (7:10pm ET) Big series in Boston as the Red Sox host the Tampa Bay Rays in a battle for first place in the American League East. The Rays have made up lots of ground over the last month of the season. They
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07-22-13 | Cleveland: U Jimenez v. Seattle: A Harang -110 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #926 Seattle Mariners over Cleveland Indians (10:10pm ET) They don't get much attention in the betting markets, but that's how we like it. The Seattle Mariners are quietly on the one of the best runs in the majors over the last three weeks. At 14-9 in their last 23 games, it doesn't sound like much of a run. But when you consider who they have played, it's spectacular. Over that stretch, they played against some of the toughest teams in the majors including the A's, Pirates, Rangers, Reds, Red Sox and Angels. To start the second half they squashed the hapless Astros with ease in a three-game sweep. The combined score in the series was 26-14. The Mariners now head back home to take on the Cleveland Indians in a three-game set. Right-hander Aaron Harang will toe the rubber for them. He's had an up and down season at 4-8 with a 5.38 ERA, but his peripheral numbers point to a much better pitcher than that. His WHIP is just 1.29 and he has had excellent control walking just 1.6 batters per nine innings. His home run rate is higher than he would like, but that shouldn't come into play as much in Safeco Field today. And due to that fact, Harang has pitched much better at home all season long as his ERA is over a run lower there. As inconsistent as Harang has been, the Indians' Ubaldo Jimenez can top it. The 29-year old right-hander has pitched some absolute gems this year and followed them up with some extremely short outings. You never know what you'll get from him, but I expect the hot swinging bats of the Mariners to produce coming off a series in which they scored 26 runs. Seattle is in a groove right now and we get a gift with this small price on them at home. I'm a believer, take the M's.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-21-13 | Tampa Bay Rays +110 v. Toronto Blue Jays | 4-3 | Win | 110 | 2 h 16 m | Show | |
3 Unit Play. #966 Take Tampa Bay +110 over Toronto (Sunday 1:05 pm MLB.tv)
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07-20-13 | Philadelphia Phillies -122 v. New York Mets | 4-5 | Loss | -122 | 16 h 37 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #901 Philadelphia Phillies over New York Mets (1:10pm ET) The trading deadline is near, but it doesn
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07-19-13 | Seattle Mariners -117 v. Houston Astros | 10-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
1-unit Play Take #975 Seattle Mariners (-120) over Houston Astros (8:10pm ET) Two teams that are clearly playing for the future face off today in Houston as the Astros host the Seattle Mariners. Neither one of these teams had a particularly good first half of the 2013 season, but no one expected them too. The Astros are on pace to lose 100 games this season and are at the bottom of my team rankings. They are one of the youngest teams in the majors and are really just looking to improve and get their youngsters some playing time. The Mariners, on the other hand, started playing a little bit better towards the end of the first half and may finish stronger than expected. It's a veteran team that isn't going to just roll over for their opponents every day and they showed that recently. The M's are 11-9 in their last 20 - a stretch of games that included series against the A's, Pirates, Rangers, Reds, Red Sox and Angels. It doesn't get much tougher than that and Seattle stood tough. Left-hander Joe Saunders goes for Seattle today. While it's not always pretty to watch, Saunders is a gritty veteran that knows how to pitch to major league hitters. He comes in at 8-8 with a 4.24 ERA on the season and really started to come on in the last couple of months. In fact, in his last 10 starts Saunders has surrendered more than one earned on just two occasions. His ERA in that stretch - a cool 2.37. The Astros definitely have some holes in their lineup and I expect Saunders to do a good job of keeping the youngsters off balance. Take Seattle tonight.
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07-19-13 | Atlanta Braves v. Chicago White Sox +125 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 44 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #980 Chicago White Sox over Atlanta Braves (8:10pm ET) The second half of the season is here, and for some teams It
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07-14-13 | Los Angeles Angels v. Seattle Mariners -126 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 51 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #928 Seattle Mariners over Los Angeles Angels (4:10pm ET) It's been a miserable season for the Los Angeles Angels and their backers have been punished to the tune of -18 units this season. It's been two steps forward then two steps back all season long for the Halos as every time they build some momentum it comes crashing down again. Frustration has been building and I'm sure several players on that team can't wait to get to the All-Star break. Today's starting pitcher Joe Blanton probably fits that mold as he has had a very difficult first half. In 18 starts in 2013, Blanton is just 2-11 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. He's struggled to avoid the home run ball and the big inning. On the other hand, Mariners right-hander Hisashi Iwakuma has put together a stellar season. He's 7-4 with a 2.97 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. That's on the heels of a rookie season in which he posted a 9-5 record with a 3.16 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. There's no doubt about it - Iwakuma is for real. But he doesn't get the respect he deserves pitching on a bad team, so there is often some good value to be had with him on the mound. Today is one of those days, so we're on Seattle here as they look for the sweep.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-14-13 | Colorado Rockies v. Los Angeles Dodgers -131 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -131 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #910 Los Angeles Dodgers over Colorado Rockies (4:10pm ET) The red hot Los Angeles Dodgers host the Colorado Rockies to close out the final series before the break. The Dodgers have found every which way to win ball games over the last few weeks, catapulting themselves from the cellar of the NL West up to second place. They are 17-4 in their 21 games and are now just 2.5 games out of first place. Right-hander Ricky Nolasco will be entrusted to keep the momentum going today. The 30-year old was just acquired a week ago and he looked comfortable in the Dodger uniform from the get go. He shut down the Diamondbacks, holding them to just one run in seven innings to go along with five strikeouts and no walks. The Rockies lineup hasn't been producing much over the last couple of weeks with several guys banged up. They're starting to get healthier but things have yet to click for them. Nolasco should get a friendly welcome in Dodgers Stadium and I expect Los Angeles to come out on top today and keep their momentum going.
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07-14-13 | Toronto Blue Jays +120 v. Baltimore Orioles | 4-7 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 8 m | Show | |
1 Unit Play. Take #921 Toronto Blue Jays over Baltimore Orioles (1:35pm ET) We have a good matchup of an underrated pitcher versus an overrated pitcher today in Baltimore. The Toronto Blue Jays
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07-13-13 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Chicago Cubs +110 | 4-6 | Win | 110 | 20 h 29 m | Show | |
1 Unit Play. Take #954 Chicago Cubs over St. Louis Cardinals (7:15pm ET) The trade deadline is just a couple of weeks away and the guy that is drawing the most attention is Chicago Cubs starter Matt Garza. The 29-year old right-hander has battled a couple of injuries in the last two seasons, but he appears to be back and better than ever. In his last five starts, Garza is 4-0 with a 0.97 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. Even more impressive, four of those starts were on the road. Today he
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07-12-13 | San Francisco Giants -108 v. San Diego Padres | Top | 10-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #911 San Francisco Giants over San Diego Padres (10:10pm ET) As we head into the final weekend series before the All-Star break, two teams that can't wait for a few days off match up tonight. The San Diego Padres host the San Francisco Giants in the second game of their four game series at Petco. There probably isn't a team in baseball that has been playing worse than the Giants or Padres have been playing over the last couple of weeks. The Padres are fresh off 10-game losing streak while the Giants are 2-14 after Wednesday's loss to the Mets. But somebody has to win today and I like the chances for the Giants. The Padres are nursing several key injuries to their everyday lineup right now, while the Giants recently got some of their guys back. Out are Yasmani Grandal, Jedd Gyorko, Cameron Maybin and Yonder Alonso for the Pads. Those are four significant contributors for San Diego and are the main reason that they've really struggled to plate runs. They'll also be sending Sean O'Sullivan to the mound, who will be making his first major league start since 2011. The young right-hander has spent most of his career in the minors but is getting a shot to show what he's got today. He hasn't been particularly impressive against weaker competition, so it's tough to picture him having success at the highest level. The Giants are a smart hitting team and should be patient enough to put some pressure on the youngster in the early innings. Chad Gaudin gets the nod for the Giants, and he's been solid since being moved from the bullpen to the starting rotation. He's made five starts and has an ERA of 2.86 and a 0.99 WHIP. That's much better than anyone expected from a guy that's spent the last three years in the pen. And I like his chances of keeping it up against a depleted Padres lineup. Take the Giants today laying a small price.
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07-11-13 | Colorado Rockies v. Los Angeles Dodgers -156 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #962 Los Angeles Dodgers over Colorado Rockies (10:10pm ET) When you're hot you're hot. The Los Angeles Dodgers are 15-3 in their last 18 games and are finally back to .500 after a miserable start to their season. The crazy part is that their amazing run has got lots of attention but the betting markets don't seem to believe in them. They were underdogs during each of their three games in Arizona and they promptly swept them by the combined score of 19-7. The Colorado Rockies come into Los Angeles and they are not playing very good baseball at the moment. They've dropped 10 of 15 and are falling fast in the National League West race. The line on this game is about 25 cents lower than I had it pegged, so we'll continue to ride the Dodgers train until they fail us.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-11-13 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Chicago Cubs +120 | 0-3 | Win | 120 | 23 h 17 m | Show | |
Take #956 Chicago Cubs (+125) over St. Louis Cardinals (8:05pm ET) When the St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs play you can almost throw the records out the window. One of the biggest rivalries in the sport, Cubs-Cards has seen some memorable games over the years and both teams bring plenty of intensity to the ballpark. That has waned a bit in the last few years with the struggles of the Cubs, but Theo Epstein has this franchise heading in the right direction. In fact, the Cubs actually moved into positive territory in run differential after their win on Tuesday. That
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07-10-13 | Boston: F Doubront v. Seattle: A Harang +120 | Top | 11-4 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 27 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #954 Seattle Mariners over Boston Red Sox (10:10pm ET) The Red Sox and Mariners battle today in Seattle in the third game of their four game set. There
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07-10-13 | Los Angeles Dodgers -104 v. Arizona Diamondbacks | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
2-unit Play Take #909 Los Angeles Dodgers over Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40pm ET) The Los Angeles Dodgers go for the sweep tonight in Arizona against the Diamondbacks. We're going to keep this one short as the handicap is very straight forward. The betting markets have simply not been giving the Dodgers enough credit during their recent run. They are 14-3 in their last 17 games and have come from last place to just 2.5 games out of first in the National League West in three short weeks. Yasiel Puig has been the catalyst and Los Angeles has also gotten much healthier as a team. Today we have two southpaws going at it as Hyun-Jin Ryu faces Tyler Skaggs. I give the Dodgers a slight edge there and they are clearly hitting the ball better recently. The Dodgers should be favored in this one, so we'll gladly take the even money wager.
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07-09-13 | Los Angeles Dodgers +103 v. Arizona Diamondbacks | 6-1 | Win | 103 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #959 Los Angeles Dodgers over Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40pm ET) The Los Angeles Dodgers have finally figured it out and they've been a freight train ever since they did. Over their last 16 games they are 13-3 and have made improvements in a variety of ways. First, they are much healthier right now than they have been all season long. Matt Kemp is still on the disabled list, but they have back Zack Greinke, Hanley Ramirez and Carl Crawford - all guys who missed significant time in 2013. They also brought up Yasiel Puig, who has had one of the best debuts in the history of baseball as he's batting .409 in his first 33 games of action. He's brought an energy that has permeated throughout the entire organization and it's infectious. The Dodgers also just traded for Ricky Nolasco, who will take the mound today in Arizona. He's a solid back of the rotation guy who can eat innings and is an improvement over their other options. Nolasco comes in 5-8 with a 3.85 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, which aren't bad numbers pitching for a struggling Marlins team. He'll have an easier time of it in Los Angeles with a team behind him that can explode for runs at any time. Nolasco will face a Diamondbacks in today's matchup. The D-Backs have been in first place for most of the season, but the Dodgers have been coming hard and putting pressure on them each and every day. The Dodgers got an easy winner last night and I expect them to continue their run today.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-08-13 | New York Mets -106 v. San Francisco Giants | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #911 New York Mets over San Francisco Giants (10:15pm ET) We're past the halfway point of the 2013 season and the New York Mets' Matt Harvey is still dominating big league hitters on a consistent basis. In fact, if the Cy Young were being given out right now, Matt Harvey would be able to make a heck of a case that he deserves it. He comes in 7-2 with a 2.27 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in 18 starts. His strikeout rate is off the charts at 10.3 batters per nine innings and he's walking less than two batters per nine innings. He doesn't have any weaknesses and today he will face a San Francisco Giants team that has really scuffled at the plate for the last few weeks. Over their last 20 games the Giants are averaging just 2.2 runs per game, which is dead last in the majors over their time frame. The next closest team has scored 17 more runs than the Giants over that span! So Matt Harvey is absolutely the last guy the Giants want to see tonight. On the other side, Tim Lincecum will be in charge of holding down the Mets hitters. Lincecum has had another inconsistent campaign in 2013, registering a 4.66 ERA in 17 starts. That is on the heels of a season in which he held a 5.18 ERA and where he was demoted to the bullpen in the playoffs. Lincecum is in danger of losing his job once again, and I fully expect it to happen shortly. He just doesn't have the control anymore and can't avoid the big inning. The Mets don't have a powerful offense by any stretch of the imagination, but Lincecum almost always allows at least three or four runs no matter the opponent. Take New York behind Matt Harvey here at a very short price.
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07-07-13 | Detroit Tigers v. Cleveland Indians +120 | 6-9 | Win | 120 | 3 h 34 m | Show | |
2-unit Play Take #970 Cleveland Indians over Detroit Tigers (1:05pm ET) Today is a big game for the Cleveland Indians. They are hosting the Detroit Tigers in a four game series and have already dropped the first two, falling to 3.5 games out of first in the American League Central. This game has the feel of a must win contest and they get a pretty favorable pitching matchup to make it happen. Right-hander Doug Fister takes the hill for the Tigers. He's a very solid pitcher overall, but definitely a couple notches below the rest of the rotation with the likes of Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and Anibal Sanchez. Fister has looked terrible recently, sporting a 7.16 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in his last three outings. The Indians have an underrated lineup that can do some damage. They are 4th in AL in runs scored with a balanced attack that doesn't feature any easy outs. They should be able to produce enough runs to make a game of it, and if they can stay close into the late innings the Indians have a huge advantage. The biggest weakness of this Tigers team is the bullpen, which has cost them lots of games in 2013. They still haven't figured out who can consistently close out games. So don't be surprised if the Tribe get a come from behind victory late in this one. Take the Indians as a home underdog in a game that they really need today.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-06-13 | Colorado: D Pomeranz v. Arizona: W Miley -161 | 1-11 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #914 Arizona Diamondbacks over Colorado Rockies (10:10pm ET) The Colorado Rockies are falling apart after a very nice start to the 2013 season. But since mid-April, they are just 29-41 in 70 games. That's right about the same winning percentage that they had last season, so this team really hasn't improved as much as people think in 2013. They're also playing without Troy Tulowitzki and Dexter Fowler right now, and Carlos Gonzalez is also banged up. Those are there three best hitters and that's tough to overcome for any team, much less a bad one. A pair of southpaws will go to battle as Drew Pomeranz and Wade Miley take the mound. Pomeranz might have better stuff than Miley, but at this point in their careers Miley is clearly the better pitcher. The D-Backs have also won five of the last six starts Miley has made against the Rockies. Arizona won 5-0 in last night's game against the Rockies and I think this game has a good chance of playing out the same way with all of the injuries that Colorado is dealing with. Take the Diamondbacks in this one.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-06-13 | Los Angeles Dodgers +149 v. San Francisco Giants | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #907 Los Angeles Dodgers over San Francisco Giants (7:15pm ET) The Los Angeles Dodgers are one of the most talented teams in all of baseball. But up until a couple of weeks ago, that didn't matter. But after a 12-4 run the Dodgers are now just 3.5 games out of first place in the NL West and is one of the hottest teams in the league. Today they'll send out one of their most underrated players to the mound in Stephen Fife. The young right-hander has been impressive in his seven starts after being added to the rotation. He comes in with a 2.83 ERA and 1.21 WHIP and has a very solid K/BB ratio. He does a good job of keeping the ball down and I expect him to keep his job in the rotation all season. He'll face a slumping San Francisco Giants club that hasn't hit a lick over the last couple of weeks. They're just 4-15 in their last 19 games and have averaged less than three runs per game during that stretch. Madison Bumgarner has been the ace of the Giants staff this season, and he'll be tasked with trying to slow down Los Angeles today. He's going to have to be nearly perfect to keep his team in the game today with the way the Giants are swinging it. We'll bet that he's not and take the red hot Dodgers in the underdog role.
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07-06-13 | San Diego Padres v. Washington Nationals -199 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 7 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #906 Washington Nationals over San Diego Padres (4:05pm ET) If you're a Washington Nationals fan, you can feel it coming. We're 86 games into the season and the Nats have yet to go a significant run. That is despite the fact that they have one of the best rotations in baseball, a solid lineup and plenty of good arms in the bullpen. But it already may have begun as Washington has won their last two games behind consecutive offensive outbursts. They scored eight runs in each of their last two contests after putting up 13 runs on Sunday and 10 on Monday. The offense has been the biggest problem area for the Nats this season, so this stretch is significant. They'll get plenty of chances to score more runs today as they go up against Padres right-hander Jason Marquis. Don't let his 9-4 record and 3.74 ERA fool you. His WHIP is all the way up at 1.47 and he's walking nearly as many batters as he's striking out. And most of his starts this season have been in Petco Park - a pitcher's haven. The Padres will have their work cut out for themselves when they're at the plate as they will face Jordan Zimmermann. He is putting up Cy Young type of statistics in 2013 and is entering the prime of his career. San Diego has lost seven straight games and their offense has been the main culprit. They've averaged only 1.7 runs per game in those contests and it's not going to get any easier versus Zimmermann. The price is big but it should be even bigger on this game. Take the Nats.
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07-05-13 | Atlanta Braves v. Philadelphia Phillies -147 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #954 Philadelphia Phillies over Atlanta Braves (7:05pm ET) Two veteran starting pitchers go at it as the Philadelphia Phillies kick off a weekend series with the Atlanta Braves. Tim Hudson and Cliff Lee have been solid pitchers for quite some time, but only one of them has continued his dominance. Cliff Lee is a like a fine wine - he's been getting better with age. His last couple of seasons have been excellent and this season he's putting up some of the best numbers of his career at the age of 34. So far in 17 starts he's 9-2 with a 2.59 ERA and 0.97 WHIP and he still has excellent control walking only 1.5 batters per nine innings. In only two of his starts he has allowed more than three earned runs, so he is giving his team a shot to win each and every game. He'll face a Braves lineup that has had a hard time hitting him in the past, so I expect that continue today. Hudson has stayed in pretty good health and managed to keep a spot in the Atlanta rotation at the age of 37. However, he hasn't been nearly as effective as he was a few years back. He's having his worst season ERA wise since 2006 and the Braves have lost more games than they've won when he's been on the mound. I think this Braves ballclub is overrated even though they've been sitting atop the NL East for the entire season. Since getting off to a hot start in April at 12-1, they are just 37-35 in the 72 games since. They have some glaring holes in the lineup and have been extremely inconsistent in scoring runs. I like the Phillies today at home behind on of the NL's best pitchers.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-03-13 | Tampa Bay Rays -142 v. Houston Astros | 1-4 | Loss | -142 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #969 Tampa Bay Rays over Houston Astros (8:10pm ET) The Tampa Bay Rays and Houston Astros go head-to-head in the third game of their four game series this evening. Roberto Hernandez gets the ball for the Rays and despite some poor numbers on the surface, I've really liked what I've seen from the right-hander. He's striking out 7.4 batters per nine innings and has kept his walk totals low at just 2.1 per nine. He also induces plenty of groundballs and has good stuff overall. His problem has been avoiding the home run ball, which should be less of an issue against a weak hitting Astros team that lacks power. Houston has really struggled to score runs lately, as they are averaging just one run per game over their last five contests. This series has been ugly so far as the Rays won the first two games by a combined score of 20-0. That's complete domination and I expect it to continue today in Houston. Take the Rays in this game.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-02-13 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Los Angeles Angels -123 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #930 Los Angeles Angels over St. Louis Cardinals (10:05pm ET) Two teams going in opposite directions square off today in Anaheim as the Angels go up against Cardinals. The Angels have won six straight games and are inching closer to contention each day. Their offense has really woken up, averaging 6.3 runs per game during the run. The Cardinals, meanwhile, have lost six of eight and have fallen out of first place in the NL Central. The Cardinals had been fortunate to be where they were due to some unsustainable hitting with men in scoring position this season. Despite what the numbers tell you about both of these teams for the season, the Angels are the better team right now and they also have the better starting pitcher throwing today. Jered Weaver missed the first month of the season and has been slow to regain his old form. However, he pitched a gem in his last outing in Detroit when he allowed just a single run in seven innings against one of the best lineups in baseball. That was a huge boost to his confidence and I expect that to carry over into today's outing. The Cardinals haven't seen much of Weaver and he's a hard guy to pick up due to his delivery. That should give him a huge edge the first couple of times through the batting order. Take the Angels today at home as they look to extend the winning streak to seven games.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-02-13 | Cleveland Indians +103 v. Kansas City Royals | 6-5 | Win | 103 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #917 Cleveland Indians over Kansas City Royals (8:10pm ET) We're at the midpoint of the 2013 season and the Cleveland Indians are sitting in first place. That's right; the Tribe is all alone on top ahead of the mighty Detroit Tigers with 82 games in the books. Cleveland is a balanced team with a good lineup, good bullpen and a few good starters in the starting rotation. One of those guys is today's starter Corey Kluber. He doesn't get the respect that he deserves, but neither does Cleveland so it's not a big surprise. The right-hander is 6-5 with a 4.16 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, but he's shown significant improvement as the season has went on. His last start was a bit rocky in Baltimore, but he's allowed more than three earned runs only three times this entire season. His K/BB ratio since the middle of May is an impressive 53-8. He's faced most of the tough offense in the AL during that span including starts against the Orioles, Rangers, Rays, Red Sox and Tigers. He isn't well-known yet, but I'm guessing most baseball fans will know who this guy is by season's end. But for right now, he's an undervalued asset and I expect him to pick up a win against an inept Kansas City Royals team today.
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07-01-13 | San Diego Padres +123 v. Miami Marlins | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #958 Miami Marlins over San Diego Padres (7:10pm ET) It was very difficult to respect this Miami Marlins team earlier this season when they were on pace for 120 losses, but things have changed. After being decimated by injuries and dropping tons of close games in April and May, the Marlins are back to respectability once again. The Fish are 16-10 over their last 26 games and one of the reasons why is today's starting pitcher Jose Fernandez. The 20-year old phenom is 4-4 with a 2.98 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 15 starts this season. He's part of the hope for the future and gives them a chance to win every game he pitches right now. He'll go up against the San Diego Padres today in the final game of a four-game series between these two clubs. The Marlins have won two out of three so far after hitting a dramatic walk off grand slam to win it in the 9th inning yesterday afternoon. It's the kind of game that provides enough energy to carry over into the next game or two. Jason Marquis will throw for the Padres today and he's been abysmal in 2013. He has a nice 9-3 record and decent 3.99 ERA, but his WHIP is at 1.44 and his control has been terrible. He's walking 5.04 batters per nine innings, which his amongst the worst in the league. In addition, most of his starts this season have been in Petco (11 out of his 16), which is a huge pitcher's park that has allowed him to escape lots of problems. He won't have that security blanket today, and I think a mediocre Marlins lineup can expose him. The Marlins are playing well and they have a huge edge in the starting pitcher department today. Take Miami at home.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-30-13 | Chicago Cubs +104 v. Seattle Mariners | 7-6 | Win | 104 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #929 Chicago Cubs over Seattle Mariners (4:10pm ET) Two erratic starting pitchers go at it today in Seattle as the Mariners host the Chicago Cubs. Edwin Jackson has been known as a very inconsistent pitcher throughout his entire career, and this season is no exception. He comes in 3-10 with a 5.84 ERA in 15 starts, but his peripheral numbers point to a much better pitcher than that. He's striking out 8.0 batters per nine innings and walking 3.6. His groundball rate is above 50% and he's not giving up a ton of home runs. His problem has been pitching with men on base, but that's mostly unlucky and should regress towards his overall numbers. He'll face a very weak Seattle lineup that is dead last in the American League in runs scored and is without Franklin Gutierrez and Michael Morse today. The Mariners send right-hander Jeremy Bonderman to the mound. Bonderman has been out of the league for three years and finally cracked a major league rotation this season. Despite a decent ERA, he hasn't pitched well in five starts. He's only striking out 3.0 batters per nine innings and is walking the same amount. In his last two starts, he's walked a total of six batters while only striking out two. The Cubs don't have a great lineup, but I expect them to get a few runs of Bonderman today. It's hard to know what to expect from both of today's starters, but Jackson has the better stuff and we'll side with the Cubs today.
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06-30-13 | Cincinnati Reds v. Texas Rangers -150 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
5-unit Play Take #926 Texas Rangers over Cincinnati Reds (3:05pm ET) The Texas Rangers host the Cincinnati Reds in the rubber game of their three game set this afternoon. And we'll have the best pitching matchup of the day as Yu Darvish goes against Mat Latos. Both pitchers are having excellent seasons and they should continue that today as they go up against lineups that aren't too familiar with them. Neither pitcher has ever faced the other team, but I think that favors Darvish a lot more than Latos. Darvish has a huge arsenal of pitches and is difficult to pick up, while Latos throws hard but isn't really that deceptive. The Rangers have also been playing great baseball lately as they are 9-3 in their last 12 games - all of which were against teams over .500 on the season. The Reds, meanwhile, are just 2-6 in their last eight games and this is the end of a three-city road trip for them. They are flying back home for a game on Monday, so they might not be as focused as usual today. Take Texas in this matchup.
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06-29-13 | San Francisco Giants -103 v. Colorado Rockies | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 6 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #955 San Francisco Giants over Colorado Rockies (4:10pm ET) It's been a difficult year Matt Cain of the San Francisco Giants, but things are starting to come together. The veteran right-hander comes into today's start in Colorado with a 5-4 record and 4.45 ERA on the season, but his last four starts have been the old Cain. He has a 2.02 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in those outings and his control has been getting a lot better. He hasn't walked a single batter in his last two outings and has 18 strikeouts to his name. Pitching in Coors Field won't be easy, but he has an excellent track record against the Rockies' regulars in his career so I expect him to pitch well today. The Giants haven't been swinging the bats very well lately, but a lot of that had to do with injuries. Pablo Sandoval and Marco Scutaro were both out for a bit, but they have returned and are contributing again. Jorge De La Rosa gets the ball for Rockies. He's had a nice season, but he hasn't looked as sharp recently walking three batters in each of his last three starts. The Rockies will also be without the heart and soul of their team today - Troy Tulowitzki. His absence hurts on both the offense and defense and in the clubhouse. I'll take Cain and the Giants in this one.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-28-13 | Milwaukee Brewers v. Pittsburgh Pirates -180 | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
Take #902 Pittsburgh Pirates over Milwaukee Brewers (7:05pm ET) The Pittsburgh Pirates have the best record in the major leagues. Yes, that
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06-27-13 | Cleveland Indians +120 v. Baltimore Orioles | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
Take #961 Cleveland Indians over Baltimore Orioles (7:05pm ET) One of the hottest pitchers in baseball that no one knows about goes again tonight for the Cleveland Indians. Right-hander Corey Kluber has raised his game in 2013 and is 6-4 with a 3.68 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. He
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06-25-13 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Houston Astros +143 | 13-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
Take #974 Houston Astros over St. Louis Cardinals (8:10pm ET) It
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06-24-13 | Philadelphia Phillies -111 v. San Diego Padres | 3-4 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 45 m | Show | |
Take #903 Philadelphia Phillies over San Diego Padres (10:10pm ET) Cliff Lee may not be a member of the Philadelphia Phillies after the trade deadline is over, but it hasn
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06-23-13 | Los Angeles: C Capuano v. San Diego: A Cashner -155 | 3-1 | Loss | -155 | 5 h 12 m | Show | |
Take #962 San Diego Padres over Los Angeles Dodgers (4:10pm ET) One of the keys to finding value in the betting market is identifying good young pitchers who are off the radar screen. Andrew Cashner of the San Diego Padres is one of those guys, as he
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06-22-13 | Minnesota Twins v. Cleveland Indians -146 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #920 Cleveland Indians over Minnesota Twins (7:15pm ET) He's one of the hottest starting pitchers in baseball and most baseball fans couldn't pick him out of a lineup. His name is Corey Kluber and he's been amazing in his last six starts for the Cleveland Indians. During that stretch the right-hander has a 2.19 ERA and 1.00 WHIP to go along with an exceptional 40-6 K/BB ratio. There's no telling if Kluber can keep this up for an entire season, but right now he's untouchable. The Minnesota Twins don't have a daunting lineup, so there's no reason to believe they can break through against the youngster. The Indians have been playing great ball lately winning seven of their last nine and their pitching has been the main reason. Over those nine contests, they have held opponents to an average of just 2.33 runs per game. They face right-hander P.J. Walters for the Twins today and he doesn't have very good stuff. He's only had five starts this season and has managed to keep his team in the game in most of them, but he's not the type of guy that will dominate. I like the Indians to get an easy win today.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-21-13 | Texas Rangers -102 v. St. Louis Cardinals | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #977 Texas Rangers over St. Louis Cardinals (8:15pm ET) Two of baseball's best go at in a rematch of the epic 2011 World Series. What the St. Louis Cardinals have been doing on offense has simply been amazing in 2013.They lead the majors in runs scored, but it's how they are doing it that is mind-boggling. They are only 11th in home runs in the NL, but they are hitting a ridiculous .340 with runners in scoring position. That's 65 points higher than the next best team in the league! Their on-base percentage with runners in scoring position is .410 - which is 36 points higher than the second best. This has obviously been the key to their success in 2013, but the fact is they simply cannot sustain that level of success going forward. There is going to be obvious regression and that should supply us with some value in the near future. The Texas Rangers will get a crack at them today, and I like the pitching matchup for them. A pair of left-handers face off as veteran Derek Holland goes against rookie Tyler Lyons. Holland is having a banner year in 2013 while Lyons has had his bumps in the road for sure. I made the line on this game close to -120 for the Rangers, so we'll gladly take them at close to a pick em price here.
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06-21-13 | Tampa Bay Rays +105 v. New York Yankees | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #963 Tampa Bay Rays over New York Yankees (7:05pm ET) It's been a tough season for the New York Yankees, as they have incurred more significant injuries than any other team in baseball. With more than half of their normal lineup out of commission for a majority of the season so far, most experts predicted that this team would be spending some time in the cellar of the American League East. They've remarkably managed to stay afloat at 39-33 thru their first 72 games, but it's slowly starting to catch up with them. The Yankees are just 2-7 in their last nine games and they just placed Mark Teixeira and Kevin Youkilis back on the disabled list recently. They can't keep counting on utility players to contribute like regulars and I don't think they can manage to stay competitive until they start to get some bodies back. The Tampa Bay Rays haven't played to their full potential yet in 2013, but they are in a good position to make a run. They have one of the best lineups in the AL, have solid starting pitching that can only improve on a poor start overall and have some good arms in the bullpen. Today's starter Roberto Hernandez is a prime example of why the Rays are only 38-35. The right-hander is 4-7 with 5.02 ERA in 13 starts, but his peripheral numbers are pretty good. He's striking out 7.8 batters per nine innings and only walking 2.4. He also keeps the ball down and has a good groundball rate. He's been unlucky with the long ball, but Hernandez is definitely a pitcher that should be able to shave at least a run off of his ERA going forward. Today's a good day to start against a depleted Yankees lineup that is struggling to score runs. Take the Rays in the underdog role today.
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06-20-13 | Seattle: F Hernandz -107 v. LA Anaheim: T Hanson | 9-10 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #921 Seattle Mariners over Los Angeles Angels (10:05pm ET) The Seattle Mariners and Los Angeles Angels wrap up their four-game series tonight in Anaheim. The Angels have taken two of the first three after winning a close 1-0 game last night. These teams are separated by just a half game in the standings, but for some reason the Angels are still getting a little bit too much respect in this matchup. One of the best pitchers in all of baseball is going for Seattle in Felix Hernandez, and this game is virtually set at a pick em price. King Felix is 8-4 with a 2.32 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 15 starts this season. Those are the best numbers of his career and his K/BB rate is also at a personal best. He's definitely backing up that huge contract he received in the offseason, raising his game yet another notch. The Angels will go to battle with right-hander Tommy Hanson in this one. It's been a difficult season for the 26-year old. He comes in at 4-2 with a 3.94 ERA, but his WHIP is at 1.45 and his strikeouts are way down from his norm at just 6.1 per nine innings. He's never been the same pitcher after a series on injuries with the Braves, which is why they shipped him out of town. And the Braves usually don't let good pitching talent go, so don't expect Hanson to return to his old form. The Angels obviously feature a more potent offense, but it hasn't performed like it should in 2013. The pitching matchup advantage for Seattle is big enough to warrant a play on them at this price.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-19-13 | Chicago White Sox -128 v. Minnesota Twins | 4-7 | Loss | -128 | 9 h 14 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #971 Chicago White Sox over Minnesota Twins (8:10pm ET) It hasn't been a good season for the Chicago White Sox. At 29-39 they find themselves in the cellar of the American League Central with little hope for the future. But one guy they know they can count on going forward is their young ace Chris Sale. The 24-year old is 5-5 with a 2.43 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in 12 starts this season. He's been even better than that of late posting a 1.19 ERA in his last six outings against some pretty good offenses. That includes an absolute gem in his last outing when he struck out 14 batters in eight innings without allowing an earned run. He'll face a Minnesota Twins team today that also hasn't fared very well against left-handers. In fact, the Twins are 14th in the AL in runs against southpaws. The Twins send right-hander Kevin Correia to the hill today. He's nothing special and has really struggled against the White Sox regulars throughout his career. With the Sox struggling, the price is relatively low on this game even though Sale is getting the ball. The value is on Chicago here.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-18-13 | RAYS GM1 +110 v. RED SOX GM1 | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 31 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #931 Tampa Bay Rays over Boston Red Sox (1:05pm ET) Game 1 of a doubleheader gets underway in Fenway Park as the Red Sox host the Rays. The pitching matchup is a rematch of a game last week in Tampa as Alfredo Aceves goes up against Chris Archer. Boston won that game 2-1, but the game could have easily gone either way as both starters were unimpressive. Aceves walked more batters than he struck out (4 versus 3) and couldn't find the strike zone at times. Archer threw 103 pitches in just four innings of work as he struggled with his control as well. As far as sheer talent, Archer has a big edge over Aceves. I also think Archer is a bit more ready for the big leagues than Aceves is at this point. The Rays usually don't rush guys up to the majors unless they're confident they can produce, so we'll trust their judgment with Archer based on their track record. Offensively speaking, these teams are very evenly matched. Boston is 1st in runs scored and Tampa Bay is 4th. After taking into account park factors, they grade out almost identical. I also think the bullpens are a draw, so this game should come down to which starting pitcher performs better. As we discussed, Archer should outshine Aceves, so we're on the Rays at a nice underdog price.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-16-13 | Philadelphia Phillies +104 v. Colorado Rockies | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 19 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #913 Philadelphia Phillies over Colorado Rockies (4:10pm ET) It wasn't a very pleasant start to the 2013 season for Cole Hamels, but he appears to have things figured out now. Four of his last five outings have been quality starts and his K/BB ratio is a sensational 35-2 over that span. He's has a tough assignment in the Colorado Rockies today, but they'll be without their leader Troy Tulowitzki. The star shortstop was just placed on the disabled list with a rib injury and will be sidelined for about a month. Jhoulys Chacin throws for the Rockies today and he's been mediocre since the end of April. The Phillies are the play in this one.
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06-16-13 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Texas Rangers -184 | 7-2 | Loss | -184 | 3 h 15 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #924 Texas Rangers over Toronto Blue Jays (3:05pm ET) We generally don't bother with favorites in this price range, but we'll make an exception today. We have one of the most lopsided pitching matchups of the season in this game as Chien-Ming Wang goes up against Derek Holland. The 33-year old Wang has battled injuries and ineffectiveness for the last several years and most thought his career was done coming into the season. He's getting a shot with the Jays due to injuries and he didn't look very good in his last start. His velocity was way down and he surrendered five earned runs while walking three batters and only striking out three against a bad White Sox offense. The Rangers offense is a bit down this season, but there's no reason to believe they can't get at least five against Wang in this one. And if that's the case, they should have no problem getting the win with Holland going. He's pitched at an All-Star level this season by improving every part of his game. He doesn't get as much attention as he should with Yu Darvish stealing lots of headlines, but Holland could definitely be the ace on many other teams. This was should be an easy win, so we'll play the Rangers in Arlington.
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06-16-13 | Chicago White Sox v. Houston Astros +115 | 4-5 | Win | 115 | 2 h 19 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #922 Houston Astros over Chicago White Sox (2:10pm ET) The Houston Astros go for their third consecutive win over the Chicago White Sox today in Minute Maid Park. The Stros came away with two one-run victories in the first two games of this series and have been playing a lot better baseball since a horrid April. They are actually 15-14 over their last 29 games and you can see the young guys really improving on this squad. Most of them weren't ready for the big leagues in April, but were forced into action without many veterans around. Their confidence is definitely growing and you should continue to see improvement from them throughout the season. Dallas Keuchel gets the ball for Houston this afternoon and he's been really solid of late. In his last three starts, the southpaw has a 1.89 ERA and 1.05 WHIP to go along with a 13-2 K/BB ratio. Chicago counters with a lefty of their own in Hector Santiago. He's been back and forth between the bullpen and the starting rotation, and that can be difficult for a youngster. I like the way this Astros team is playing and I think they get the victory today.
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06-15-13 | Washington Nationals v. Cleveland Indians +121 | 7-6 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #980 Cleveland Indians over Washington Nationals (7:15pm ET) The Cleveland Indians host the Washington Nationals in an Interleague battle. Both teams come into today's contest at 33-33 after the Indians took the first game of the series on Friday night. For Washington, it's been a very frustrating season as the expectations were extremely high on this team. They were supposed to be the best in the NL and take another step forward in 2013. It hasn't worked out that way, and the main reason is their lack of offense. The Nationals are 14th in the NL in runs scored with 3.52 per game, ahead of only the lowly Marlins. They also are particularly bad against left-handers so far in 2013 and that's bad news since they go up against one in Scott Kazmir today. Washington has just a .584 OPS against southpaws this season, which is the worst in the major leagues. Kazmir is pitching better than expected in his comeback effort in 2013. While his ERA is above 5.00, he is striking out 9.1 batters per nine innings and has gotten his velocity up to where it needs to be for him to be effective. He's caught some tough breaks with a .362 batting average on balls in play, so we should see better results from him going forward. Washington sends Jordan Zimmermann to the hill today, which will be a tough matchup for the Indians. He's 9-3 with a 2.00 ERA and 0.89 WHIP this season, but his peripherals don't support it. He has been lucky on batted balls in play at .229 and his strikeout rate is only 5.8 per nine. While Zimmermann is definitely improved this season, some regression is in order for him. I like the home team today.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-14-13 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. San Diego Padres -120 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #914 San Diego Padres over Arizona Diamondbacks (10:10pm ET) There's clearly something wrong with Arizona Diamondbacks starter Trevor Cahill. In his last four stars, the normally reliable right-hander is 0-3 with a 7.94 ERA and 1.68 WHIP. It's easily the worst stretch he's had in two years with Arizona as his strikeout-to-walk ratio during that stretch is only 8-6. He may be fighting through an undisclosed injury or his mechanics could be a little off. Either way, the San Diego Padres should get some good whacks tonight. The Padres come in as winners of seven of their last nine contests and the offense has been a big reason. They've averaged 5.2 runs per game in those nine contests and haven't been held under three runs in any of them. Southpaw Eric Stults takes the hill for San Diego tonight. He doesn't get a lot of attention, but is a solid middle of the rotation arm. He's 5-5 with a 3.53 ERA and 1.15 WHIP and should have a big edge tonight against an Arizona lineup that struggles against lefties. The Padres have also been very good in Petco this season at 19-14. All signs point to the Pads in this matchup.
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06-14-13 | St. Louis Cardinals -138 v. Miami Marlins | 4-5 | Loss | -138 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
2-unit Play Take #907 St. Louis Cardinals over Miami Marlins (7:10pm ET) The St. Louis Cardinals have put together quite a season so far in 2013. They have the best record in the big leagues at 43-23 and also hold the best run differential at +102. Today they are an even better team as they get back right-hander Jake Westbrook from the disabled list. Westbrook was having a sensational season when he went down with an elbow injury. Through his first six starts, the right-hander was 2-1 with a miniscule 1.62 ERA. His peripheral numbers weren't as good, but his propensity to keep the ball down in the zone is the key to his success and his groundball rate is at a whopping 61%. Westbrook looked amazing in his two rehab starts in the minor leagues before coming back. He had a 1.69 ERA and struck out 10 batters with no walks. Today he'll face another lineup that is minor-league quality in the Miami Marlins. Miami has really struggled to score runs at an average of just 2.98 runs per game - dead last in the majors. Making matters even worse, Miami hitters have also struggled mightily against Westbrook over his career. Rookie Jose Fernandez pitches for the Marlins in this one, and he's been one of the few bright spots for the team this season. However, he hasn't faced a lineup like the Cardinals feature and I expect Fernandez to struggle as the season goes on due to his early success as a rookie. Once you do well in this league, everyone starts to pay attention and study your weaknesses. The Cardinals are one of the best organizations in the sport, and I fully expect them to find the chinks in the armor for Fernandez. Take the Cardinals in this spot.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-13-13 | Cincinnati Reds v. Chicago Cubs +120 | 5-6 | Win | 120 | 2 h 26 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #954 Chicago Cubs (+115) over Cincinnati Reds (2:20pm ET) The Chicago Cubs aren't going anywhere in 2013, but there are plenty of bright spots on this team and the future is promising. One of those bright spots is staff ace Jeff Samardzija. At 28-years old, the right-hander is becoming one of the better pitchers in the National League. He is amongst the strikeouts leaders in 2013 and comes in with a 3.18 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 13 starts. He has struck out at least seven batters in five straight starts, including a complete game shutout against the White Sox in which he allowed only two hits and two walks. He doesn't get the recognition he deserves because he's on a bad team, and that gives us a little bit of value today. He'll face the Cincinnati Reds in this one, and they are loaded up with right-handers in the lineup which is an advantage for Samardzija. I also think the Cubs are underrated as a team as their run differential on the season is only -18 and they're 13 games below .500. Those numbers don't quite add up and the main reason is the Cubs have struggled in one-run games going 7-14. As long as the Cubs don't start trading away too many parts, I think they'll be better with just neutral luck (instead of bad luck) going forward. The Reds are a solid club but I think the Cubs get the job done today in Wrigley.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-12-13 | Houston: J Lyles +140 v. Seattle: Bonderman | 6-1 | Win | 140 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #927 Houston Astros over Seattle Mariners (10:10pm ET) The Houston Astros clearly aren't having a great season at just 22-44 thru their first 66 games in 2013. They're on pace for over 100 losses, but that's what everyone expected from this young team that is rebuilding their franchise. That's certainly factored into the betting line, but most people aren't paying attention to the fact that this team is vastly improved from the start of the season. They are 12-14 in their last 26 games and 15 of those were on the road. They are extremely young and a lot of these guys belong in the minor leagues, but they're getting big league experience and that's helping them progress even faster in some respects. Tonight they should get some good swings against a starting pitcher that doesn't belong in the major leagues - Jeremy Bonderman. The right-hander hasn't pitched since 2010 with the Tigers and he's getting a chance with the Seattle Mariners due to their lack of depth in the rotation this season. He's made two starts so far and struck out a grand total of three batters in 10 2/3 innings of work. His ERA in those outings is 6.75 and I don't expect it to improve from there. Jordan Lyles goes for the Astros and he has been one of Houston's better pitchers this season. He's 3-1 with a 4.03 ERA thus far and has a good knack for keeping the ball down and inducing plenty of groundballs. He doesn't need to be perfect in this one, as the Astros should be able to put plenty of runs on the board off of Bonderman. Kendrys Morales is also likely out of action for the M's today, and he's one of the more potent bats in their lineup. Take Houston at a nice underdog price against one of the AL's worst starters.
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06-11-13 | New York Yankees +101 v. Oakland A's | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #975 New York Yankees at Oakland A's (10:05pm ET) The New York Yankees have been a mash unit this season, but the troops are slowly coming back. Mark Teixeira and Kevin Youkilis are back in the daily lineup and Curtis Granderson isn't far behind. It's amazing that New York was able to stay afloat without so many key parts, but they have a lot of veterans and leadership on this team and it's definitely shown. CC Sabathia is one of those leaders, and despite a few bumps here and there he looks like he finally has it together. He pitched a complete game in his last outing while striking out nine and walking just one. He did allow four runs, but the Yankees jumped out to an early 6-0 lead and Sabathia cruised from there. In the outing before that, Sabathia struck out 10 batters with no walks against the Red Sox. He won that game as he only allowed one run in 7 1/3 innings. His velocity has also been steadily climbing since the end of April and that's a good sign for the tall left-hander. Bartolo Colon and the Oakland A's will face the Yankees tonight. Colon has put up solid numbers this season but he'll have his hands full with a Yankees lineup that features lots of lefties. He faced the Yankees earlier this season and surrendered three runs in just 5 1/3 innings in a loss. He's been throwing the ball very well lately, but he doesn't throw hard and relies on pinpoint control. The Yankees have a veteran lineup that has seen Colon plenty of times before, so they know what they're up against and have had good results against him in the past. Both of these teams come into today's game playing good baseball. The Yankees have won six out of seven and the A's are 18-5 in their last 23 contests. I give the Yanks the edge with the better starting pitcher and the better bullpen in case things are tight in the late innings. Play New York as our 10-unit Game.
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06-09-13 | San Francisco Giants v. Arizona Diamondbacks -135 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -135 | 5 h 15 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #960 Arizona Diamondbacks over San Francisco Giants (4:10pm ET) The Arizona Diamondbacks host the San Francisco Giants in the rubber game of the series this afternoon. They don't get a lot of attention, but the Diamondbacks have been leading the National League West for most of the season. They are a balanced team without any big superstars, but they don't have any big weaknesses either. They're also very deep and have been able to stay atop the division despite missing several key players for large chunks of time. One of the guys who have stepped in due to injury is today's starter Tyler Skaggs. And just like the replacements before him, he has fit in beautifully. In his first two starts he is 1-0 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.03 WHIP with a 13-3 K/BB ratio. Skaggs was a highly touted prospect in the system that couldn't make the team in the spring due to the ascension of Patrick Corbin, but he clearly has some talent. He may never be demoted back to the minor leagues again if he can continue to pitch like this. The Giants will have their hands full with Skaggs today, especially since Pablo Sandoval is getting a day off. He's been nursing a foot injury, so San Francisco is letting him rest in this one. Reliever Chad Gaudin gets the ball for the Giants today. He is filling in for the injured Ryan Vogelsong in the rotation. Gaudin filled in well as a starter last time out, but I don't think he has the stamina to go more than five or six innings on a regular basis. He hasn't been a regular starter since 2007, so the expectations are certainly low. The Diamondbacks are the better overall team and have the better starting pitcher throwing today. They're also at home, so we get a steal of a price in this one.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-08-13 | New York Yankees v. Seattle Mariners +121 | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 11 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #924 Seattle Mariners over New York Yankees (4:10pm ET) The Seattle Mariners host the New York Yankees in the third game of their four-game series this afternoon. Last night the Yankee bats were miffed by the arm of Jeremy Bonderman, who hasn't pitched since 2010. They managed to score only one run in the game and had just four hits in an embarrassing effort. Today they'll go up against a crafty left-hander in Joe Saunders. He's not going to overpower anyone, but the 31-year old knows how to pitch - especially in Seattle. He's always posted great numbers in Safeco, and now that he's with the M's nothing has changed. His ERA at home this season is a miniscule 2.25, and the road he has a 9.00 ERA. Those are obviously extreme and will regress towards one another, but you get the point. Saunders likes pitching in spacious ballparks since he doesn't have the stuff to strike people out. The Yanks go with left-hander Andy Pettitte in this one. Pettitte has been banged up this season and still may not be 100%. He came off the disabled list in his last start and wasn't very effective, going only 4 2/3 innings and allowing three runs and issuing three walks. He's also almost 41 years old and clearly past his prime. I like the home underdog Mariners in this one.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-07-13 | Baltimore Orioles v. Tampa Bay Rays -105 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #970 Tampa Bay Rays over Baltimore Orioles (7:10pm ET) The AL East is as good as advertised with a four-team race going on at the moment. Two of those teams are the Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays, who begin a three-game series tonight in Tampa. These teams are very evenly-matched as they're separates by just 1.5 games in the standings and only two runs in run differential for the season. In looking at the starting pitching matchup for today, I give a slight nod to the Rays. Jason Hammel pitches for the O's and he's had a disastrous season in 2013. He enters today's contest with a 5.43 ERA and 1.51 WHIP to go along with a mediocre K/BB ratio. Last year he had what he thought was a breakthrough season, but it's starting to look more like an anomaly as his career ERA is 4.82. The Rays go with rookie Chris Archer, who most of the Oriole hitters haven't seen yet. That should give him the edge the first couple of times through the lineup before he turns it over to the bullpen. The Rays have also been one of the better home teams in the majors for the last several years. This year is no exception as they check in at 17-10 in their first 27 games. The value is with Tampa Bay in this matchup.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-07-13 | Pittsburgh Pirates -109 v. Chicago Cubs | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 4 h 56 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #951 Pittsburgh Pirates over Chicago Cubs (2:20pm ET) The Pittsburgh Pirates have their best team in over 20 years and this will be the year they are above .500 at season's end. They have a good lineup, a phenomenal bullpen and some good arms in the rotation. One of those arms is left-hander Francisco Liriano. The 29-year old missed the first few weeks of the season, but since coming back he's been pitching better than ever. He comes into today's start with a 2.17 ERA and 1.21 WHIP and is striking out a ridiculous 12.1 batters per nine innings. He's also walking fewer batters than usual and inducing ground balls at a higher rate. Expect him to continue his domination today as he faces a Chicago Cubs lineup that really struggles against southpaws. The Cubs will go to battle with a left-hander of their own - Travis Wood. He's putting together a nice season in his own right, but he's been fortunate to post a 2.75 ERA. His strikeout and walk rates are very average and he doesn't keep the ball down either. He's just an averaged pitcher disguised as someone who looks improved. We should see some regression from Wood the rest of the season and I think the Pirates lineup can get that started this afternoon. Even if Wood keeps the Cubs close, the game probably comes down to the bullpens. That's where the Cubs have given away countless games over the last couple of seasons and 2013 is no exception. The Cubs bullpen ranks 14th in the National League in ERA while the Pirates rank 2nd. The Pirates have the edge in all departments in this game and barely favored. That puts us on Pittsburgh as our 10-unit Game for June.
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06-06-13 | Minnesota Twins v. Kansas City Royals -134 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #920 Kansas City Royals over Minnesota Twins (8:10pm ET) The Kansas City Royals haven't been swinging the bats very well of late, but today they get just what they need to get things going. Mike Pelfrey is on the mound for the Minnesota Twins in this one and he's simply been one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball this season. The right-hander is 3-6 with a 6.66 ERA and 1.77 WHIP in 11 starts this season. He's only striking out 4.6 batters per nine innings and could be on the verge of losing his job in the rotation. On the other side is Wade Davis, who doesn't have great numbers either with a 6.16 ERA and 1.88 WHIP. However, Davis is much more likely to turn things around as he has good stuff and is striking out 7.9 batters per nine innings. For Davis, his problems are mostly above the shoulders. He looked good in his last start in Texas despite giving up six runs, as he had eight strikeouts without issuing a walk. In projecting these pitchers for the rest of the season, Davis is much better than Pelfrey and we get home field advantage on top of it. Take the Royals today.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-05-13 | Texas Rangers v. Boston Red Sox -126 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -126 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #970 Boston Red Sox over Texas Rangers (7:10pm ET) When the Boston Red Sox were getting a lot of publicity due to their turnaround earlier on the in the season, the names Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz were being tossed around for the primary reason. However, veteran pitcher John Lackey has been pitching fantastic as well but has sort of been lost in the shuffle. Coming into today's start, the 34-year old has a 2.96 ERA and 1.18 WHIP to go along with his 8.9 strikeout rate per nine innings. Those numbers are even better than the version of Lackey before his big injuries. It's only been eight starts, but I think it's safe to say that Lackey is back. He'll go up against a tough Texas lineup today, but one that's not as potent as it's been in the past. The Rangers are just 7th in the AL in runs scored, which isn't very impressive given that they play in a hitter-friendly environment. They're also without Ian Kinsler right now and Adrian Beltre is also banged up. Texas will counter with Alexei Ogando, who is coming back from a bicep injury. The Rangers aren't 100% sure that Ogando should stay in the rotation due to his inconsistency, as he might be a better fit in the bullpen where he excelled last season. I would have to agree, as Ogando has trouble with the batting order the second and third time around. The Red Sox have been swinging the bats very well lately, which will make things even harder on Ogando today. Boston leads the AL in runs scored and 41 runs in their last five games, including a 17-run barrage last night. The price on this one is just a little bit too low. Take Boston at home here.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-04-13 | Minnesota Twins v. Kansas City Royals -130 | 3-0 | Loss | -130 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #920 Kansas City Royals over Minnesota Twins (8:10pm ET) Now that we're past the one-third mark of the 2013 season, it's a little bit easier to flag some of the undervalued and overvalued baseball teams based on what we've seen so far. For instance, the Minnesota Twins come into today's matchup at 25-29 on the season and on a pace to win 75 games. But if you start to evaluate the team a bit closer, you can see that they've simply been overachieving. They have one of the worst starting rotations in the AL at 14th with a 5.51 ERA. Their offense ranks just 10th in run scored. They are also a terrible defensive team. So how are they winning so many games? The bullpen. Their pen ranks 2nd in the AL with a 2.87 ERA and has been the backbone of this team since the beginning of the season. However, bullpen statistics are the most fickle stat there is and past performance is not always predictive of future success. They don't have many proven arms out there, so it's reasonable to assume that they are going to regress from this point on. And if that happens, this team won't have any strengths at all and we'll see them start to drop in the standings to where they belong. The Kansas City Royals are on the other end of the spectrum. They are currently in last place in the AL Central at 23-31, but they don't deserve to be there. Their run differential is only -9 on the entire season and they have lost a lot of close games. In fact, they are just 7-12 in one-run games this year. Based on their underlying numbers, they should be very close to .500 at this point, and that's likely what we should expect going forward. So that leaves us with an undervalued Royals team going up against an overvalued Twins team today. Throw in a favorable pitching matchup for the Royals with Luis Mendoza going up against Samuel Deduno, and you can see how we get to a play on Kansas City at home today. Play the Royals.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-03-13 | Arizona Diamondbacks +145 v. St. Louis Cardinals | 1-7 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #957 Arizona Diamondbacks over St. Louis Cardinals (8:15pm ET) It's a battle of first place teams as the St. Louis Cardinals host the Arizona Diamondbacks today in Busch Stadium. We have two consistent starting pitchers going at it in this one and two offenses that know what to do with the bat. Trevor Cahill is one of the most consistent pitchers in all of baseball over the last two seasons. In his last 35 starts dating back to last season, Cahill has yielded more than four earned runs just one time. That is really amazing when you think about it. As a result, he's kept his team in every game and that is huge for a well-rounded team like Arizona. Lance Lynn has been pretty good since earning a rotation spot to begin the 2012 season. His ERA last season was 3.78 and this season he's improved to 2.91. His mound presence is fantastic and he's been good enough to finally convince the Cardinals that he's never going back to the bullpen to make way for any of their young talent. Overall, I grade these two pitchers similarly. However, Cahill has better career numbers against the Cardinals than Lynn does against the D-backs, so slight edge to Arizona there. As for the offenses, these two teams are very close once again. The Cardinals are 3rd in the National League in runs scored, while Arizona is 6th. However, Arizona has a higher OPS and they've dealt with more injuries earlier in the year. When it comes to bullpens, Arizona has clearly outperformed the Cardinals this season and defensively Arizona is the better team as well. All in all, these teams are very evenly-matched so we'll gladly take +140 with Arizona today.
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06-03-13 | Colorado Rockies +130 v. Cincinnati Reds | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #955 Colorado Rockies over Cincinnati Reds (7:10pm ET) Tyler Chatwood appears as if he's finally figured things out at the big league level. The right-hander is 3-0 with a 2.12 ERA and 1.28 WHIP on the season and that includes half of his starts in Coors Field. While he still has a lot to prove to stay in the rotation, he's come a long way. His career ERA coming into this season hovered around 5.00 and he had no confidence. He looks much more comfortable out there now and he's shown a great ability to keep the ball down and induce plenty of groundballs to the tune of a whopping 58% groundball rate. That really comes in handy in home run parks like Coors and Great American Ballpark, where today's game is being played. Veteran Bronson Arroyo goes for the Cincinnati Reds today. The 36-year old can still pitch but his skills are slowly eroding. He relies a lot more on his control as he doesn't have the stuff he once did. The Rockies have hit well against Arroyo in his career and today should be no different. The Rockies have really turned some heads this year, and one of the reasons is their outstanding bullpen work. The bullpen unit has been near the top of the league all season long despite the fact that they pitch in a hitter-friendly environment at home. Today's game should be a tight one, and could very easily come down to the bullpens. As a result, we'll take the Rockies today in this one.
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06-02-13 | Boston Red Sox v. New York Yankees -110 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #928 New York Yankees over Boston Red Sox (8:05pm ET) It's the ESPN Sunday Night Game of the Week as the New York Yankees host the Boston Red Sox. This is the rubber game of the series as these teams split the first pair in two games that weren't very close. The Yankees haven't been playing very good baseball of late as they've dropped six of seven and have been struggling to put runs on the board. But that's sure to change as the Bronx Bombers just welcomed back Kevin Youkilis and Mark Teixeira on Friday. The replacements for New York have done pretty well overall given the vast amount of injuries to the team, but these are definitely major upgrades and it changes the entire complexion of the infield. In short, expect the bats to start waking up and the Yankees to put more runs on the board. Hiroki Kuroda goes for the Yanks today and he's put together another solid season. The 38-year old veteran is 6-3 with a miniscule 2.39 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 11 starts in 2013. Unlike his teammate Phil Hughes, Kuroda is fit to pitch in Yankees Stadium as he's good at keeping the ball down and avoiding the home run ball in a park where the ball jumps. Clay Buchholz gets the ball for the BoSox and he's had a nice year as well at 7-0 with a 1.73 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. However, Buchholz missed his turn in the rotation last time around due to a collarbone injury. He's giving it a shot tonight, but there's no guarantee that he's 100% for this one. Even if Buchholz pitches well, I think this will be a close game that comes down to the bullpens. And if that's the case, the Yankees have a huge edge with Robertson and Rivera in the 8th and 9th innings. Take the Yankees at home tonight.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-01-13 | Boston Red Sox +106 v. New York Yankees | 11-1 | Win | 106 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #975 Boston Red Sox over New York Yankees (7:15pm ET) The biggest rivalry in the sport takes place on Saturday night as the New York Yankees host the Boston Red Sox in the second of their three-game set. The Yankees took the first game behind a strong performance from CC Sabathia, but it's not likely we'll see anyone dominating like that today. Felix Doubront goes up against Phil Hughes in a matchup where the pitcher who makes the least mistakes will probably emerge victorious. Both of these pitchers are very inconsistent, but I like Doubront over Hughes today for a couple of reasons. First, he's left-handed and that's important in Yankee Stadium with the short porch in right field for left-handed batters. Doubront is also much better than his 5.29 ERA indicates. He's had some awful luck on batted balls in play and his strand rate can use some improving as well. Doubront is striking out 9.7 batters per nine, so you know he has the stuff - it's just a matter of harnessing it for him. Hughes shouldn't be allowed to pitch in Yankee Stadium any more. He's a fly ball pitcher and that doesn't bode well in a park where the ball jumps out of the yard. His career numbers are terrible in the Bronx and a good Red Sox lineup will take advantage. Both of these teams are banged up offensively, but there should still be plenty of fireworks in this rivalry. But my money is on Doubront faring better than Hughes and the BoSox getting the win.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-01-13 | New York Mets -107 v. Miami Marlins | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 3 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #951 New York Mets over Miami Marlins (4:00pm ET) The Miami Marlins are on pace to lose nearly 110 games and it could be even worse if they don't get healthy soon. Baseball's most embarrassing team is winning just 25% of its games and their disabled list is starting to stack up. They currently have a dozen players on the list and most notably superstar Giancarlo Stanton. The Fish are averaging only 2.76 runs per game in 2013 and without Stanton their lineup is Triple-A grade. The linesmakers and betting markets haven't quite caught up to just how bad this team is, evidenced by the fact that they are still down 20 units on the season as a team. Today's line also doesn't reflect it as they are basically even with the Mets. Now the New York Mets aren't a great team at 22-30 on the season, but they have much more talent than the Marlins do. In fact, they just swept the Yankees in four games earlier this week in impressive fashion. The starting pitching matchup does favor Miami today as they send rookie Jose Fernandez to the mound. He's been one of very few bright spots on this club, but his last three starts haven't been as good. The league is catching up and I don't expect much more success in his first season on a team without any support. In all other areas, the Mets are clearly the better squad. Take the Mets at a gift price against one of the worst teams in the modern era.
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05-31-13 | Washington Nationals -106 v. Atlanta Braves | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #909 Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves (7:30pm ET) The Washington Nationals haven't been playing to their talent level this season at just 27-27. However, there are still over 100 games remaining in 2013 and I feel like this team has it in them to eventually turn this ship around. This weekend is a good place to start as they go up against the first place Atlanta Braves starting on Friday night. Stephen Strasburg gets the ball for the Nats and he's coming off of his best outing of the season last time out. He pitched a season high eight innings against the Phillies allowing just one run while strikeout out nine and walking none. He hasn't been as sharp as he was last season, but this might be the start he needs to get himself over the hump. Rookie Julio Teheran will pitch for the Braves in this one. He has lots of potential but is still trying to figure things out at the major league level. The Braves are also extremely depleted in their bullpen with three of their top guys out. That could be a huge factor if Teheran struggles, or if the game is tight in the late innings. I like Strasburg and the Nats to notch a win today in Atlanta.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-30-13 | Seattle Mariners -116 v. San Diego Padres | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 9 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #955 Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres (3:40pm ET) The final game of the four-game set between the Seattle Mariners and San Diego Padres goes today in Petco Park. This is easily the best pitching matchup of the series as Felix Hernandez goes up against Andrew Cashner. There's no question that Cashner is a rising star. He throws in the upper nineties and has great moxie on the mound. However, he is still learning how to pitch and that's why he only has a 4.00 career ERA at the age of 26. King Felix, on the other hand, is in the prime of his career and is one of the top three pitchers in the game today. He has a 2.54 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 11 starts in 2013, and continues to get better. He's on pace to post the best strikeout totals of his career and his walks are down significantly from prior seasons. The Mariners and Padres have similar teams offensively and in the bullpen, but the difference today will be starting pitching. The line on this game seems extremely short for the Mariners, so they're the play here.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-29-13 | Oakland A's v. San Francisco Giants -123 | Top | 9-6 | Loss | -123 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #930 San Francisco Giants vs. Oakland A's (10:15pm ET) The San Francisco Giants and Oakland A's shift their series to AT&T Park on Wednesday night. Right-hander Tim Lincecum goes up against southpaw Tommy Milone in what should be a good game. Lincecum has pitched much better than his 4.75 ERA indicates. His biggest problem has been his control and avoiding the big inning. He's striking out 9.5 batters per nine innings and is getting enough groundballs, so I think he can overcome the occasional walk with the kind of stuff he has. His mound presence has also been a lot better than it was last season. The Giants have been swinging the bats well and are the best offense in the National League on a park-adjusted basis. They should be able to give Milone some problems, as he's a much different pitcher away from home. He had some of the biggest home/road splits last season and that's carried forward into this season. Both of these teams have good team chemistry and send out two capable starters to the hill today. I just like this Giants team more than the A' s and prefer Lincecum at home to Milone on the road. San Francisco is the play.
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05-29-13 | Boston Red Sox -117 v. Philadelphia Phillies | 3-4 | Loss | -117 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #905 Boston Red Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies (7:05pm ET) If you're looking for early candidates on the Comeback Player of the Year Award, John Lackey might be a good place to start. The 33-year old veteran has battled injuries the last two seasons, but he's finally healthy and looking like his old self. In seven starts in 2013, Lackey has posted a 2.72 ERA and 1.13 WHIP and is striking out more than a batter per inning. His velocity is checking in where it was in years past and his confidence appears to be back. He'll face a depleted Philadelphia Phillies squad today that is without team leaders Chase Utley and Carlos Ruiz. Ryan Howard also isn't 100%, leaving the Phils without much firepower. Kyle Kendrick pitches in this one. He's had a decent season so far, but his last two starts have not been very good. In his last two outings he has only three strikeouts and eight walks in 11 innings of work. Both were losses and he gave up a combined nine earned runs. Those were his two worst starts of the season, so something may be a little off with Kendrick's mechanics. Boston is the better team in just about every respect and they have the better starting pitcher today. That puts us on the Red Sox at this short price.
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05-28-13 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Kansas City Royals -106 | 4-1 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #968 Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals (8:10pm ET) The Kansas City Royals host the St. Louis Cardinals in the second of their four-game cross-city series. The Cardinals come in with the best record in baseball at 33-17, but are they that good? There's no question that this is a solid baseball team, but they've been a bit fortunate to carry the best record in the majors in our eyes. While they are third in runs scored in the National League, they are only 13th in home runs and 9th in total bases. They're doing a good job of hitting with runners on base, but once that normalizes you'll see a drop off in runs. They have some aging veterans in that lineup too and it's difficult to see them holding up over the entire season without some drop off. The Cardinals are probably a playoff-bound team, but not the best team in baseball like they are being priced. The Royals haven't been playing very well lately, but they have just the right guy on the mound to get things turned around. Right-hander Ervin Santana is having one of the best seasons of his career in his first season in Kansas City. He has a 3.14 ERA and is walking only 1.3 batters per nine innings, which is 60% less than he walked in 2012. Santana is a momentum type pitcher and right now he has it. The Cardinals send out rookie Tyler Lyons tonight. The 25-year old left-hander wasn't supposed to be in the big leagues this season, but has been called up with the injuries in the rotation. He hasn't been impressive in the minor leagues and I think he'll struggle in just his second big league start. Take Kansas City here.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-27-13 | San Diego Padres v. Seattle Mariners -114 | 0-9 | Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show | |
10-unit Play Take #922 Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres (4:10pm ET) The first rule of Interleague play is to look towards the American League team first. The AL has dominated the NL for years, evidenced by their dominant record against them for the better part of a decade. The Padres and Mariners both look like mediocre below .500 teams with similar records on paper. But by virtue of playing in the tougher league, the M's have played a tougher schedule and that counts for something. Today we'll see two struggling pitchers take the mound - Clayton Richard and Aaron Harang. Richard is 0-4 with an 8.54 ERA and 2.05 WHIP and is making his first start off the 15-day disabled list today. He's walking 5.8 batters per nine innings, while only striking out 4.4. That's about as bad as it gets. On the surface Harang hasn't looked much better with an 8.58 ERA in six starts. But his WHIP is down at 1.55 and he's striking out 8.6 batters per nine innings while only walking 1.6. With numbers like those, his ERA will surely come down and rest somewhere in the 4's. Seattle is the better ballclub overall and has a better pitcher going today. Throw in the fact that they're at home and we get a great price in this one.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-26-13 | New York Yankees v. Tampa Bay Rays -128 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 3 h 43 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #972 Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees (1:40pm ET) The Tampa Bay Rays host the New York Yankees today in an effort to avoid a three-game sweep. Somehow the Yankees have managed to stay atop the American League East division despite an onslaught of injuries on a weekly basis. They have had more players lost to injury than anyone else this season and it hasn't been close. Some of the guys they are relying on couldn't even make the rosters on bad teams, so I expect some regression from this team going forward. The Rays need this game badly and even moved up Alex Cobb in the rotation so that he could face the Yanks in this series. Cobb has been Tampa's best starting pitcher this season and is emerging as a star in this league. He comes in at 5-2 with a 2.73 ERA and 1.13 WHIP and boasts a strong 8.2 strikeout rate per nine innings. CC Sabathia goes for New York and he's clearly not the same pitcher as he has been in year's past. His velocity is down and so are his strikeouts. His ERA is the highest since 2005 for the 32-year old. Sabathia is still a good pitcher, but he has had trouble with good hitting teams and the Rays definitely fit that mold. I like Cobb and the Rays to get the win today.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-25-13 | Philadelphia Phillies v. Washington Nationals -143 | 5-3 | Loss | -143 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
5-unit Play Take #908 Washington Nationals over Philadelphia Phillies (7:15pm ET) The season is not quite playing out like the Washington Nationals and Philadelphia Phillies wanted so far. Both teams have been hovering around .500 for the entire 2013 campaign and haven't been able to get any type of run going. But I think these teams are about to start heading in different directions. The Phillies are a veteran team that lacks depth and needs everyone to stay healthy to compete. But in the last few weeks they've lost ace Roy Halladay, starting catcher and leader Carlos Ruiz and the heart and soul of the team in Chase Utley. These are the backbones of this ballclub and there's no telling what kind of effort you're going to see from this team going forward. Even Ryan Howard hasn't been 100% lately, leaving this team really struggling to score any runs in recent games. Today they'll go up against Dan Haren, who has been a bit shaky in his first season with the Nationals. However, he has been very unlucky in several of his starts as far as the amount of hits given up with runners in scoring position and hits that have fallen in. His K/BB ratio is actually very good and his velocity is even better than it was in the last couple of seasons. Haren should be better going forward, just like the rest of the Nationals. This team has really been scuffling since the pressure was put on them as the team to beat in the National League in the preseason. But this team has too many every day players heading into their primes to be struggling, so it's just a funk that won't last all season. The Nats have also suffered with several injuries to Ryan Zimmerman, Bryce Harper, Jayson Werth, Wilson Ramos and Danny Espinosa. But I think they are at about rock bottom at the moment, as the pressure has subsided and the team gets refocused. Today's a good day to put up a crooked number as they go up against rookie right-hander Jonathan Pettibone. Take Washington here as our 5-unit Game.
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05-25-13 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Milwaukee Brewers -123 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -123 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #906 Milwaukee Brewers over Pittsburgh Pirates (4:10pm ET) Not all trends in baseball mean anything, but today we have one that is worth looking at. Since 2006, the Pittsburgh Pirates are just 10-50 in their 60 games in Miller Park. That is the worst such mark of any team versus any other team away from home during that span. These are just two strong home teams, so it makes some sense that the Brewers have done really well against the Pirates and can expect the domination to continue. Two fairly weak starting pitchers square off in this one, so I'm expecting this game to be decided more by the offenses than anything else. The Brewers and Pirates have scored about the same number of runs this season, but Milwaukee hits much better against left-handers and they are facing southpaw Jeff Locke today. The Brewers have a potent lineup that may feature three All-Stars this summer - Ryan Braun, Jean Segura and Carlos Gomez. Don't forget that they also have Aramis Ramirez and Rickie Weeks as well. This one could turn into a slug fest and I like the Brewers chances to outslug the Pirates if that's the case. Take Milwaukee at a very acceptable price given the history.
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05-24-13 | Colorado Rockies v. San Francisco Giants -144 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -144 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #964 San Francisco Giants over Colorado Rockies (10:15pm ET) The San Francisco Giants host the Colorado Rockies as the two teams begin a three-game set in AT&T Park this weekend. These teams met last week in Colorado and the Rockies took three of the four games in that series. However, the Rockies are a very tough team to beat in Coors Field, so I expect this series to be a complete 180 from last week. Both teams have identical 26-21 records overall, but the Giants are 17-8 at home this season while the Rockies are just 10-12 on the road. The Giants are also better than the Rockies in every phase of the game. They have the better starting pitcher today, the better bullpen, they play better defense and they also have a better offense after taking into account park effects. Tim Lincecum is the Giants starter and he's looked really good overall despite a few rough outings. His peripheral numbers have improved from last season and he's slowly getting back to his old form. Tyler Chatwood goes for the Rockies and he's been a great bet against guy during his career. He's struggled with his confidence and I've never really liked his stuff very much. This game has the Giants written all over it.
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05-24-13 | Baltimore Orioles v. Toronto Blue Jays +101 | 10-6 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #966 Toronto Blue Jays over Baltimore Orioles (7:05pm ET) The Toronto Blue Jays haven't lived up to expectations so far in 2013, but the tide is starting to turn. The Jays have won seven out of 10 games and the offense is really starting to click. During those 10 contests, they have averaged 6.4 runs per game against some pretty good pitching staffs. Today they'll go up against right-hander Chris Tillman of the Orioles. Tillman comes in with a 3.52 ERA in nine starts, but he's been fortunate. His strand rate is very high at 83% and he's walking more than a batter more per nine innings than he did last season. It's time for some regression and a dangerous Blue Jays lineup should be able to arrange that. The Jays go with a rookie making his debut today in Sean Nolin. The young lefty has put up exceptional numbers in the minor leagues. He'll be tough for the Orioles to face since they've never seen him and probably won't have much of a book on him yet. Toronto is rolling and I think they get the job done today as a home underdog.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-22-13 | Detroit: Verlander v. Cleveland: U Jimenez +135 | 11-7 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #972 Cleveland Indians over Detroit Tigers (7:05pm ET) We have a great divisional showdown between the Cleveland Indians and Detroit Tigers this evening. The teams are separated by only 1.5 games in the standings and the Indians are starting to prove that they're in this for the long haul. The Tribe has won five of six and has had some dramatic wins in the process. There is an energy around this team that seems to be contagious and they feel a lot like last year's Baltimore Orioles and Oakland A's teams. They just get the job done when everything is on the line. Today they get a tough matchup with Justin Verlander on the mound for Detroit. But Verlander hasn't been himself over his last couple of starts. He was pounded around in Arlington for eight runs and gave up five walks and four runs to Cleveland last week in the start before that. Verlander will surely right the ship at some point, but this is a great spot to fade him. Ubaldo Jimenez gets the ball for the Indians and he's been amazing lately. In his last four starts he is 3-0 with a 1.90 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, including a gem against the Tigers last week. Jimenez hasn't been the most consistent pitcher over the last couple of seasons, but he's more confident than he's been in a long time and that is enough to get us to the window with this one. Take the Indians as a home underdog here.
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05-22-13 | Cincinnati Reds v. New York Mets -104 | 7-4 | Loss | -104 | 4 h 40 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #952 New York Mets over Cincinnati Reds (1:10pm ET) One of the best young pitchers in the game goes today in CitiField as the New York Mets host the Cincinnati Reds. Matt Harvey has been one of the biggest stories in baseball this season. The 24-year old is 5-0 with a 1.55 ERA and 0.72 WHIP in nine starts this season and has struck out more than a batter per inning. He hasn't had a single bad outing all season long and that kind of consistency is what you're looking for at the betting window. The Mets are a bad baseball team overall which is why we see a low price on this game. But this team is completely different with Harvey on the mound. Not only does he shut down the opposition, but he also places some extra pressure on the opposing pitcher to step up his game. Mat Latos will be that guy today. Latos has put together a good season overall, but over his last three starts he's been a bit shaky. He has a 5.12 ERA in those outings and two of them were against the Cubs and Marlins - not exactly offensive juggernauts. I expect Harvey to continue to dominate here today and get the win.
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05-21-13 | Tampa Bay Rays -137 v. Toronto Blue Jays | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #915 Tampa Bay Rays over Toronto Blue Jays (7:05pm ET) One of the more underrated pitchers in the American League takes the mound today in Toronto and it's not Ramon Ortiz. At 25-years old, Alex Cobb is making a name for himself. He put together a solid season and a half coming into 2013, and this year he's raised his game several levels. He's 4-2 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.17 WHIP and is every bit as good as those numbers indicate. He's striking out 8.8 batters per nine innings and has only given up 12 free passes in 53 innings of work. He's also a groundball machine and has a good plan against every batter he faces. He'll go up against a talented but underachieving Blue Jays lineup today. The Jays are just 11th in the AL in runs scored and have scored just four runs more than the Houston Astros. Ortiz will be tasked with slowing down a hot hitting Tampa Bay Rays team today. The Rays have averaged 6.2 runs per game in their last 21 games after a slow start to the season. Ortiz is 40-years old in two days and hasn't pitched more than 35 major league innings in a season since 2007. His career ERA is 4.90 and he surely isn't in his prime at this point. This one could get really ugly, as the Rays should cruise to a victory.
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05-21-13 | New York Yankees +106 v. Baltimore Orioles | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #917 New York Yankees over Baltimore Orioles (7:05pm ET) Phil Hughes has given up 13 runs in his last two starts and has a ridiculous 18.47 ERA in those outings. In the four starts previous, he had a 1.93 ERA and a 30-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio. But that's who Hughes is - an inconsistent pitcher who has more than his share of ups and downs. But one thing can definitely be said for Hughes is that he shouldn't be allowed to pitch in Yankee Stadium. He's a right-handed fly ball pitcher, and that's not good in a stadium with a short porch in right field. Today we get him on the road, where he's been more comfortable his entire career. The Baltimore Orioles are sliding a bit lately, losing six straight games. I didn't think this team was as strong as advertised last season, and expected significant regression in 2013. After a hot start, I think we're starting to see it. The ageless Freddy Garcia will get the ball for the O's today, and that's not a good sign. Sweaty Freddy has a 5.51 ERA and is only striking out 3.3 batters per nine innings. He's just a stopgap filling in for injuries right now, so Baltimore would be happy to just get five innings from him each start. The Yankees offense has been surprising this season given all of their injury problems. Now they're starting to get guys back, and that's scary for the rest of the league as the Yankees are in first place at the moment. If this game should happen to come down to bullpens, the Yanks have an advantage there with Robertson and Rivera in the 8th and 9th. I like the Yanks to continue their hot start and get the win today.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-20-13 | Washington Nationals v. San Francisco Giants -138 | Top | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #962 San Francisco Giants over Washington Nationals (10:15pm ET) It's been a tough year for San Francisco's Ryan Vogelsong. At 1-4 with an 8.06 ERA and 1.84 WHIP he's been one of the worst pitchers in the National League. Manager Bruce Bochy has already hinted that this might be his last chance to save his job in the rotation. Vogelsong has never been a great pitcher, but has always gotten the job done and put up decent numbers over the course of his career. He's 35-years old, so he's obviously past his prime, but I think he can get it together and still be effective for the Giants. His peripheral numbers indicate an ERA in the mid-4's, so he is obviously experiencing some bad luck during this stretch. He's pitching at home today and that's where he's been most comfortable over the last few seasons. He'll face a Nationals lineup that hasn't been able to produce much this season. Washington is 13th in runs scored in the league and they're without Jayson Werth and maybe Bryce Harper today. Washington is just 3-6 in their last nine games and this will be their fourth different city in nine days. They're also going with reliever Zach Duke as their starting pitcher today to replace the injured Ross Detwiler. Duke has an 8.40 ERA in nine relief appearances this season and barely made the Washington roster to begin with. He's only pitched one complete season over the last four years, so he's obviously struggled to keep it together recently. I like Vogelsong to come up with a strong start today and get the win over the Nationals.
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05-19-13 | Detroit Tigers v. Texas Rangers -115 | Top | 8-11 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #928 Texas Rangers over Detroit Tigers (8:05pm ET) It's the ESPN Sunday Night Game of the Week, and we have a good one. Derek Holland and the Texas Rangers host the Detroit Tigers in a battle between division leaders. Holland has really elevated his game in 2013, improving from a 4.67 ERA last season to a 2.93 ERA this season. He's done it by increasing his strikeout rate and significantly reducing his walk totals. Manager Ron Washington has pointed to Holland's enhanced work ethic as the reason for his success. Right now the confidence level for the 26-year old is at an all-time high and that will come in handy against a difficult Detroit lineup. The Tigers lead the American League in runs scored, but they don't have a lineup built to hit lefties very well. The Tigers have also had some trouble scoring runs in Arlington, especially in this series where they've averaged only 2.7 runs per game in the first three contests. The Rangers have averaged 6.0 runs in this series. Right-hander Doug Fister goes for the Tigers and he's as steady as they come, but hasn't been dominant in 2013. The Rangers lineup is not easy to navigate either and they've been swinging it well of late. In their last eight games, the Rangers have averaged 6.4 runs per game. This should be a fun game to watch, but I like Holland over Fister and the way that the Rangers are swinging the bats.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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