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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-17-12 | Baltimore Orioles v. Minnesota Twins -106 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #976 Minnesota Twins over Baltimore Orioles (8:10pm EST) Two young pitchers square off in Minnesota today as the Twins host the Baltimore Orioles. Zach Britton was just called up by the O's a few days ago to make his first start of the 2012 season. The 24 year-old had a spot in the Baltimore rotation last season and pitched decent going 11-11 with a 4.61 ERA. However, he had some injury issues earlier in the year and that basically put him back in the minor leagues to start the season. He's had a hard time recovering and the team still isn't quite sure if he's ready to face big league pitching again. He'll face a tough Twins lineup today that thrives on hitting left-handed pitching. Minnesota is second in the American League in OPS against southpaws, behind only the Yankees. They also are following up on a 19-7 thrashing of the Orioles last night in which they accumulated 20 hits in a game for the third time this season, which leads the majors.
The Twins counter with rookie pitcher Sam Deduno. The 29-year old rookie has spent quite a bit of time in the minor leagues and is finally getting a chance to enjoy the big leagues and show the Twins what he's got. In his first start last week, he pitched well in Arlington against a potent Rangers lineup. He allowed only three runs in 5 1/3 innings and was in line for a win until the bullpen blew the game for him. He'll have a much easier time of it tonight at home in Minnesota against a free-swinging Orioles lineup. Baltimore has really struggled to put runs on the board lately and is averaging only 2.8 runs per game over their last seven contests. Deduno should be more comfortable in this one at home, while Britton may be a little more nervous on the road for his first start of the season. I like the way the Twins have been playing over the last six weeks and they've proven to be a better ballclub than Baltimore of late. Take Minnesota in this one. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-16-12 | Houston: J Happ +114 v. San Diego: K Wells | Top | 2-0 | Win | 114 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #908 Houston Astros over San Diego Padres (10:05pm EST) Two of the National League's worst square off today as the San Diego Padres host the Houston Astros. The Padres check in at 36-54 while the Astros are even worse at 33-56. Both teams are building for the future, but the games must go on in the meantime. Houston has slowly started to build a decent collection of arms in the starting rotation, and J.A.H app is one of those pieces. At 29 years old he's one of the elders on the staff, but he's definitely showed some signs of finally figuring things out. Happ is 6-9 with a 5.14 ERA, but don't let that tell you the whole story. He has a career high strikeout rate of 8.6 per nine innings and has also tempered his walk rate down to his career low at 3.4. He's inducing more groundballs than ever and his pitches are more refined. The only key ingredient he is lacking is more confidence, but that is slowly coming along. I expect to see a breakthrough second half for Happ and better numbers than he's posted in his young career.
Kip Wells was promoted to the major leagues a few weeks ago out of desperation. San Diego has incurred several injuries to its pitching staff and Wells was one of the few experienced players in the minor leagues that they thought could step right in. He didn't really deserve the chance to pitch again in the major leagues after his three year hiatus. Wells had a 4.97 ERA in Triple-A and his peripheral numbers were even worse. But the Padres brought him up anyways and today he'll make his fourth start of the season. He's posted a solid ERA at 2.50, but there are plenty of warning signs that Wells will find his way back to the minor leagues once again. He currently is walking more batters than he is striking out, and no pitcher can survive that for long. His fastball velocity is also down less than 90 mph and his stuff isn't all that impressive. He's throws a lot of junk up there and he's been fortunate to avoid disaster in his first three outings. Neither one of these offenses is very good, but the Astros have a slight leg up on the Padres. However, the Astros have lost 13 of their last 14 games, so the linesmakers were forced to put the Padres as the favorite in this one. Based on the pitching matchup, however, the Astros should be the favorites in this contest. Take Houston as an underdog tonight as we get some value with a struggling team. |
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07-16-12 | Seattle Mariners -103 v. Kansas City Royals | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #923 Seattle Mariners over Kansas City Royals (8:05pm EST) We might have the worst starting pitcher in all of baseball on the mound in today's game between the Seattle Mariners and Kansas City Royals. It's unbelievable that Jonathan Sanchez is still in the rotation for the Royals, but he's at it again tonight versus the Mariners. Sanchez comes in at 1-5 with a miserable 6.75 ERA. He is walking 7.4 batters per game, which is a major league worst for qualifying starters. He's had mechanical problems and has lost some of his velocity. He's spent time of the disabled list and there's a good chance that he's still injured. So why is Jonathan Sanchez still pitching for a team that has aspirations for getting back into the hunt in the American League Central? That's a great question that nobody can really answer.
What's even more egregious is the fact that the linesmakers have inserted Sanchez as a favorite in today's game. His opponent Jason Vargas is having a good season at 8-7 with a 4.08 ERA and the Mariners aren't so bad that they can't take advantage of a weak pitcher. Kansas City is also one of the worst home teams in baseball at 15-25 while the Mariners aren't terrible on the road at 20-26 this season. Not much more to analyze in this contest. The linesmakers made an error on this one and we'll take advantage by playing Seattle tonight against probably the worst starter in the majors right now. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-14-12 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Milwaukee Brewers -140 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -140 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #908 Milwaukee Brewers over Pittsburgh Pirates (7:10pm EST) The Pittsburgh Pirates are the darlings of the league right now. At 48-38, the Pirates stand atop the National League Central after 20+ years of futility. But are they for real? The Pirates' winning recipe this season has been riding a couple of strong starters at the front of the rotation and relying on an amazing bullpen to finish things off. Throw in an MVP-caliber season from Andrew McCutcheon and you have the pillars upon which the Pirates are built. However, things are going to get very difficult for the Pirates going forward and there's a good chance that we see everything that they've built up start to crumble. The bullpen currently has the best ERA in all of baseball at 2.63. Bullpens are generally very fluid and with a collection of unproven arms making up their staff, it's unfair to ask the bullpen to continue to perform the way that it has up until now. We'll definitely see some regression in the second half from this group and it could be significant. The story is similar for McCutcheon. Holding a .367 batting average with 19 home runs and 61 RBI, he's definitely one of the leading candidates for league MVP. However, he's earning more respect from opposing pitchers by the day and it's unlikely that he's going to see any good pitches with runners on base from here on out. The Pirates will need the rest of the lineup to step it up if they want to continue to win. That's asking for a lot considering that most of Pittsburgh's lineup is batting below .230 on the season.
Today Pittsburgh will be sending one of their weakest arms to the hill in Kevin Correia. The right-hander is 5-6 with a 4.34 ERA and has a dismal 3.4 strikeout rate per innings. He'll go up against the promising Marco Estrada of the Brewers. Estrada is 0-3 with a 4.06 ERA, but his peripheral numbers are very encouraging. The 29-year old is averaging 9.7 strikeouts per nine innings and a walk rate of only 1.8. In his last three outings, Estrada has looked sharp with a 3.00 ERA and a 21-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The Brewers offense is very solid at home, where they are 2nd in runs scored in the National League. The Pirates struggle away from home and have had one of the most drastic home/road splits in baseball for the last several years. Don't buy the hype - the Pirates will fade and now's a good time to take advantage. Take Milwaukee in this one as our Game of the Month. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-14-12 | New York (N): R Dickey +102 v. Atlanta: T Hanson | 7-8 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 27 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #903 New York Mets over Atlanta Braves (4:05pm EST) No matter how well he pitches, R.A. Dickey will never get the respect that he deserves. He doesn't blow anyone away with a 95-mph fastball and he isn't a 22-year old rookie with major upside. He's a 37-year old veteran that has bounced around the league, but one thing is for sure - Dickey is one of the best pitchers in baseball right now. It's hard for people to accept the fact that a 75-mph knuckleballer can continue to baffle major league hitters, but he's done it all season long and it's time to believe. At 12-1 with a 2.40 ERA and 0.93 WHIP, Dickey is the current leader in the National League Cy Young race and there are no indications that will change. His opponent today is Tommy Hanson. Hanson was once thought of as the future ace of the Braves, but things haven't quite worked out that way. The 25-year old right-hander in his fourth big league season and has regressed each year. His ERA in his rookie season was 2.89 followed up by years of 3.33 and 3.60 in his next two seasons. This year he has a 3.73 ERA and has struggled with his mechanics a bit. His velocity is down from last year and his strikeout numbers have taken a huge hit as a result.
The Braves have not been very good at home this season at 21-22, while the Mets are a solid team on the road at 20-21 thus far. The Mets are also 19-7 in Dickey's last 26 starts overall dating back to last season. It's hard to believe that we get one of the best pitchers in baseball at an underdog price today, but that's the case in this one. Play the Mets this afternoon. |
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07-13-12 | Oakland A's +125 v. Minnesota Twins | 6-3 | Win | 125 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #977 Oakland A's over Minnesota Twins (8:10pm EST) Baseball is back after a four day break and today we get a good matchup between the Oakland A's and Minnesota Twins. Both of these teams were playing really inspired baseball heading into the All-Star break. The Twins were 21-17 over their last 38 games and could have easily swept Texas in their last series if their bullpen would have performed a bit better. The A's come in even better at 17-8 in their last 25 contests, fueled by the best pitching staff in the American League. Neither club is likely to enter into the playoff picture this season, but that doesn't mean that they won't continue playing well and try to spoil the chances of their competition.
The wildly inconsistent Francisco Liriano takes the mound for the Twins today. Liriano was a train wreck earlier in the season with an ERA in the 9's and was eventually sent to the bullpen to figure things out. He responded well and was one of the best starting pitchers in June when he returned to the rotation. However, he has slipped up in his last two starts with 10 walks in 12 innings of work and it appears that he might have lost his mojo for the moment. This has been the story of Liriano's career - on again off again with no consistency. When he's on, he can be one of the best in the league, but when he's off he pitches like he doesn't even deserve a spot in the minor leagues. Based on his control issues over the last couple of games, you definitely don't want to be backing Liriano as a favorite. The A's have been winning ball games primarily because of their pitching staff this season. So many youngsters have exceeded expectations for this team and A.J. Griffin might be another guy you can add to that list. While he only has three starts on the season, Griffin has looked impressive sporting a 1.50 ERA against three pretty good teams in Boston, Texas and San Francisco. This will by far be his easiest opponent thus far, especially considering the fact that the Twins don't hit right-handers as well as they do against lefties. The Twins have not been a very good home team this year at 17-25, while the A's are a respectable 19-23 on the road in 2012. This is a good spot for the A's as Liriano shouldn't be priced this as this high of a favorite. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-08-12 | Seattle: F Hernandz -112 v. Oakland: B Colon | 1-2 | Loss | -112 | 7 h 18 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #925 Seattle Mariners over Oakland A's (4:05pm EST) Last game before the All-Star break as the Seattle Mariners take on the Oakland A's. It's been a disappointing first half for the Mariners at 36-50 in last place in the American League West. Their hitting has been atrocious and they've had to rely on inconsistent starting pitching to carry the load. Today's starting pitcher Felix Hernandez has had a few bouts with inconsistency this season, but right now he is locked in. In his last three starts, King Felix has a 2.11 ERA and 0.98 WHIP to go along with an impressive 31-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His counterpart on the mound will be the 39-year old Bartolo Colon. This will be Colon's second start back after being placed on the disabled list with an oblique injury. Overall he's 6-7 with a 4.05 ERA and generally pitches well enough to keep his team in the game. He'll need to be a little bit better than that today with Hernandez on the other side, and with an Oakland offense behind him that struggles to score runs often.
Neither one of these offenses is impressive as Oakland is last in the American League in runs scored and Seattle is second to last. Both bullpens are solid, but I think this game comes down to the starting pitching. King Felix is in outstanding form and Colon is fresh off of an injury, so I give a huge edge to the M's here tonight. The Mariners are 7-2 in their last 9 games as a road favorite and I like them in that situation again in this matchup. Take Seattle at a decent price with their ace on the hill. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-07-12 | Atlanta Braves v. Philadelphia Phillies +100 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
At 37-48, there are a lot of people starting to count the Phillies out this season. They currently sit in last place in the National League East and 13 games behind the first place Nationals. Philadelphia has struggled to win ballgames, but they've also caught a lot of bad breaks in the process. The loss of Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Roy Halladay, probably their top three players, challenged the depth of this team and they simply couldn't make up the difference. However, they just got their two big sticks back in Utley and Howard, and Halladay isn't too far away. With their top two hitters back in the lineup, this isn't the same Phillies team that is in last place right now. Before the season started, most have projected this team to win more than 90 games and compete for another World Series. Now that they're mostly healthy, this may be a 90-win team disguised as a last place squad.
Joe Blanton takes the ball for Philadelphia today. He's one of the most underrated starting pitchers in the league as he's simply been unlucky for almost two years now. With a batting average on balls in play of .362 and .301, respectively over the last two seasons, Blanton should have an ERA in the mid 3's rather than close to 5. He has immaculate control as he's only walked 15 batters in 104 innings of work in 2012, and his strikeout rate of 7.7 per nine innings is nothing to breeze over. Blanton has the skills to pitch well and win games, but he just needs to avoid the bad breaks. Today he'll face a Braves lineup that he dominated in his last outing against them. In early May, Blanton pitched a complete game shutout in Atlanta allowing only three hits and no walks. It was easily his most impressive performance of the season and he'll surely have confidence today seeing them again. The Braves counter with Tommy Hanson on the mound in this one. Hanson simply hasn't been the same pitcher that he once was. Between recovering from a late season injury that he incurred last year and changing some of his mechanics as a result, Hanson lost some of the life on his fastball. His strikeouts have dropped about 20% and he's giving up the long ball more often than before. In his only start against the Phillies this season, Hanson surrendered four runs in 3 2/3 innings of work. His counter Joe Blanton is in much better form right now, and I like the Phillies offense to make a splash with Howard getting more comfortable in his return. Take the Phillies at home today at even money. |
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07-07-12 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Chicago White Sox -137 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show | |
For some reason the Chicago White Sox don't get the respect that they deserve. At 46-37, the Sox are in first place in the American League Central and have won eight of their last nine games. It's been a complete team effort as Chicago has hit the ball extremely well, received great contributions from their starters and has watched their bullpen shut games down in late innings. One of their starters who has really got things going is Gavin Floyd, who will be on the mound today. Floyd struggled early on but in his last three outings he has a sparkling 1.93 ERA. He recently credited his success with a very small change in his mechanics, and the light bulb just went on for him.
Toronto's starter Ricky Romero has been going in the opposite direction of late. In his last two starts he has a 16.00 ERA with nine walks in nine innings. Romero has simply lost control of his pitches and doesn't know where the ball is going. While he probably won't lose his job given the amount of injuries the Jays have on their staff, he clearly needs to be sent down to the minor leagues to work on his mechanics. With a red hot White Sox lineup, Romero could easily get into trouble early again and leave it up to one of the worst bullpens in baseball to finish up. This one could get out hand and we'll take Chicago in this one. |
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07-06-12 | Seattle: K Millwood v. Oakland: T Milone -150 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
It's not very often that you see the Oakland A's as favorites this high, but for today's matchup that price is well warranted and should even be a bit higher. They'll be facing the Mariners, and it's been tough going in Seattle recently. The M's are just 14-24 in their last 38 games for a winning percentage of only .368. Hitting has been the main problem as Seattle is 29th in runs scored over the last three weeks. Only the lowly Dodgers (without Kemp and Ethier) have scored less runs than the Mariners over that stretch. It's not going to be easy for them tonight as they face left-hander Tommy Milone. Seattle has been awful against southpaws this season and Milone is also one of the best home pitchers in all of baseball this season. O.co Coliseum seems like it was built for Milone - a fly ball pitcher who pitches to contact and frustrates opposing hitters with off-speed junk. The left-hander has amassed a miniscule 0.99 ERA at home this season and has a 5-1 record. With the way Seattle has been struggling at the dish, they might have trouble even putting one run on the board tonight.
That will make it a tall order for right-hander Kevin Millwood tonight, who is in charge of holding down the A's offense. Millwood isn't even 100% healthy as he is still fighting off a groin injury he incurred a couple of weeks back. Oakland has been one of the hottest hitting teams in the American League over the last month or so. Yoenis Cespedes is healthy again and back in the lineup and Josh Reddick has been tearing the cover off the ball with 19 home runs. The A's have also won 10 of their last 11 games against right-handed starters. This is going to be an uphill battle for Seattle tonight and I just don't see how they are going to get it done. Take Oakland in what looks like it should be an easy winner. |
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07-06-12 | Minnesota: F Liriano +145 v. Texas: M Perez | 5-1 | Win | 145 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
The Minnesota Twins have quietly been playing some inspiring baseball over the last month. They're 18-13 over their last 31 games and have fought their way back to respectability. The impetus for the run has clearly been their hitting. During their run, the Twins are averaging 5.2 runs per game. A lot of that has to do with staying healthy as both Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau have stayed healthy together for their longest stretch in nearly two years. The unexpected emergence of Trevor Plouffe has also been a huge lift in the middle of the lineup as he has 19 home runs. Today's starting pitcher Francisco Liriano has also been instrumental in Minnesota's recent success. Over his last seven outings, the left-hander has dominated the opposition with a 2.95 ERA while striking out 46 batters in 44 2/3 innings. Liriano has always been a very streaky pitcher and when he's on, you definitely want to be on his side. When he eventually cools off, you want to be on the other side.
The Texas Rangers might not be all their cracked up to be. After getting off to a red hot start in April, they're only 33-27 in their last 60 games overall. That's just mediocre baseball for a team that everyone has been touting as the best in baseball for quite some time. Their hitting has held up fine, but they've had trouble holding the opposition down - especially over the last couple of weeks. Over their last 12 games they've given up 6.3 runs per game, going 6-6 over that span. They just got swept by the White Sox in Chicago where they were outscored by a combined score of 26-7. The team has to be a little deflated right now as we head into the All-Star break in a few days. Due to several injuries in their rotation, the Rangers hand the ball to rookie Martin Perez in tonight's game. He wasn't slated to be in the major leagues this season, but with four key arms on the disabled list for Texas, they had no choice. Martin throws hard and has decent stuff, but he's only 21 years old and by all accounts is still learning the basics about how to pitch at a high level. With the way the Twins have been hitting lately, it's going to be a tough time for the rookie pitching in a hitter's park in Arlington. I think both teams have about the same chance to win this one tonight, so we'll take the Twins with the plus money. |
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07-06-12 | New York Yankees -113 v. Boston Red Sox | 10-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
GAME OF THE WEEK: Baseball's best rivalry heats up again as the New York Yankees face the Boston Red Sox this weekend in Fenway. This is only the second series of the season between these teams, as they will hook up 16 times from here on out. The Yankees have clearly been having a much better season than the Red Sox so far. At 49-32, New York leads the difficult American League by a healthy margin of 5.5 games over the Orioles. Their hitting has been steady all season at close to the top of the league and they've received excellent production out of their bullpen. The only weak spot for the Yankees at times has been their starting pitching, which is primarily due to injuries. Sabathia, Pettitte and Pineda are all on the disabled list but that won't be an issue today as the Yankees send out one of their most consistent starters in Hiroki Kuroda. Kuroda has fit in well with New York and hasn't let the media attention change the way he goes about his business. He enters today's game with a 3.17 ERA and 1.22 WHIP and is coming off of his best outing of the season last time out. He beat the White Sox in his last start by going seven innings without allowing a run and posted 11 strikeouts and no walks. Over his last seven outings collectively, Kuroda is 5-1 with a 1.65 ERA as he's clearly found a groove with his new club.
The Red Sox season has been a painful one, but they're still holding onto hope. At 42-40 they're in the hunt, but they need to make a run soon before there are too many teams ahead of them to pass. The biggest problem for the BoSox this season has been getting consistent effectiveness from the starting rotation. Today's starter Josh Beckett has been one of the disappointing ones, as he still hasn't been able to put it all together in 2012. He's 4-7 with a 4.06 ERA and his strikeout numbers are down over 30% from last season. Part of the problem has been nagging injuries and the other part may be a bit of a lack of motivation, as Beckett has shown in the past that he isn't always as focused mentally as he needs to be. Whatever the issue, it's apparent that Beckett isn't 100% and that is certainly good news for a powerful Yankee lineup. In an odd trend, the road team in this series has fared much better than the home team in recent years. The Yankees have won 16 of the last 23 games in Fenway Park and they'll look to try and bury the Red Sox in this four-game set this weekend. They have a huge edge in the starting pitching department today and that's enough to play the Yankees here tonight at a virtual pick em price. This is our Game of the Week. |
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07-05-12 | Baltimore: J Arrieta +136 v. LA Anaheim: G Richards | Top | 7-9 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
The Baltimore Orioles and Los Angeles Angels start a four-game series tonight in Anaheim. The Orioles won two of three from the Mariners in their last series to improve to 44-37 this season. Many thought that this team would have started fading by now, but they continue to find ways to win games with contributions coming from everyone on their roster. Baltimore expressed a commitment to winning last week when they traded for Jim Thome from the Phillies. He fits nicely in their DH spot and is a solid left-handed stick that they could use in the lineup. The Orioles have been struggling at the plate recently, averaging only 3.1 runs per game over their last 18 contests, so the addition of Thome should provide a nice boost. He's also a great guy in the clubhouse and someone who the younger players could lean on when the pennant chase heats up later in the year. The Orioles will face rookie Garrett Richards of the Angels today. Richards has pitched well in his first full season going 2-1 with a 2.81 ERA in his six games. However, he's coming off of his worst outing of the season in which he gave up 10 runs (5 earned) in only 4 1/3 innings in a loss to the Blue Jays. It generally gets tougher as the season goes along for young pitchers as the league makes adjustments to them and learns their weaknesses. Baltimore has some dangerous hitters that swing for the fences, so Richards could easily find more trouble in this one.
The Angels come in playing great baseball over the last two months after a horrible start to the season. However, they have dropped four of their last six games and might be cooling off a bit. This is the Angels' first game back home after a nine-game road trip, so they will probably be a bit weary for this one as they flew in from Cleveland last night. They'll go up against right-hander Jake Arrieta in this matchup. Arrieta's ERA isn't pretty this season in the high 5's, but he has good peripheral numbers that indicate a great chance for improvement. He's averaging 7.9 strikeouts per nine innings and only 2.6 walks - a very solid 3-1 ratio. He also has a good groundball rate at 43% and has increased the velocity on his fastball. Those numbers look more like a guy with a sub-4 ERA, and that's how we'll value him in this one. I have the price on this game in the 120's, so plenty of value on the underdog. Take the Orioles tonight. |
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07-04-12 | Baltimore Orioles -103 v. Seattle Mariners | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 7 m | Show |
The Baltimore Orioles and Seattle Mariners square off in the rubber game of the series tonight in Safeco Field. The Mariners have struggled to score runs in their home park all season long and are hitting an absurd .199 in Safeco in 2012. Tonight they'll face Chris Tillman of the O's who was just called up from the minor leagues to make this start. Tillman has spent parts of the last three seasons with the big league club, but this will be his first start on the 2012 campaign. The 24-year old right-hander has been pitching well recently allowing only two earned runs in his last three starts at Triple-A Norfolk. More impressively, he has a 23-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in those outings. With the Mariners bats ice cold, he gets a nice transition back to the major leagues.
Seattle will counter with right-hander Hector Noesi in this one. To say it nicely, Noesi has been a mess this season. At 2-10 with a 5.69 ERA, it's hard to believe he is still in the rotation but Seattle doesn't have many other options. Over his last six starts, Noesi has completely lost his confidence and has a 7.67 ERA and a weak 22-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Baltimore has a dangerous lineup and it wouldn't be surprising to see them knock out Noesi very early in tonight's game. The Mariners are 2-8 in Noesi's last 10 starts as an underdog. The Orioles have won 7 of 8 against teams with a losing record. Take the O's tonight as we get a very good price for a complete mismatch. |
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07-04-12 | Philadelphia Phillies -120 v. New York Mets | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 2 h 8 m | Show | |
The Philadelphia Phillies look to bounce back against the New York Mets in a Fourth of July matinee matchup. The Mets took it to the Phils 11-1 last night to push Philadelphia to their lowest point of the season at 36-45. The season has been a disaster for the Phillies, who sit in the cellar of the National League East. Everyone is ready to shovel dirt on the grave of Philadelphia, but this team has tons of talent and a lot of heart. I don't think they're going to give up this easily and they'll find a way to at least make things interesting. Today they'll look to get Cliff Lee his first win of the season. It's hard to imagine that Lee is winless on July 4th, but he's had some control problems, hasn't received much run support or bullpen help and has spent time on the disabled list. However, he's still one of the best pitchers in the National League despite the issues that he's encountered this season. He'll face a Mets lineup that is 3rd in the league in runs scored, but isn't nearly as good against left-handed pitching. The Mets are hitting just .244 against southpaws and Lee is about as good as it gets.
As far the Mets, things can't get much better. They check in at 44-37, currently in the second wild card position. Nobody thought that they'd be here this far into the season, but they've proved everyone wrong so far. For today's handicap, it's important to understand how this team got to where it is today. And it doesn't take long to figure out that the backbone of this team has been its wonderful starting pitching. R.A. Dickey, Johan Santana, Jon Niese and Dillon Gee are all having All-Star caliber seasons. You can't take it all away from the hitters, but there's no question that these four men have put the Mets in position to make a run of it in 2012. The fifth man currently in the rotation is Chris Young, who is starting today. Young made a comeback to the major leagues this season after everyone had counted him out. Young has missed most of the last three seasons with injuries and stepped into the Met rotation on June 5. He has made five starts and a couple of things are clear. First, he's a gritty competitor that does his best to keep his team in the game. Secondly, and more importantly, he doesn't have very good stuff anymore. He throws his fastball less than 84mph and it's a big effort for him in every single at bat. He's managed to keep his ERA down to 3.30 so far, but with a strikeout rate of only 5.4 per nine innings and a groundball rate of only 29%, he's due for a major correction. The Phillies are a fairly disciplined team that won't be fooled by a lot of the junk that Young throws up there. Young isn't conditioned to go very deep into the game at this point and is being watched closely by the New York staff. As a result, we should see a decent amount of the Met bullpen arms in this one. That's good news for the Phillies as the Mets come in with the worst bullpen ERA in the league at 4.93. The Phillies have a big edge in the starting pitching department today and they have the more complete lineup with Chase Utley back in the mix. Don't be fooled too much by the records of these teams as Philadelphia will be the better team from here on out. Take the Phils here as a small favorite. |
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07-03-12 | San Diego Padres +140 v. Arizona Diamondbacks | Top | 9-5 | Win | 140 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
The San Diego Padres face the Arizona Diamondbacks in a matchup of young guns. There has been a ton of hype surrounding the call up of the D-Backs phenom Trevor Bauer. He has been touted as a potential ace for the rotation and was the most prized possession in the Arizona system. After plenty of fanfare, the 21-year old finally made his major league debut in Atlanta last week and the outcome was bittersweet. Bauer pitched well enough to keep his team in the game, but the D-backs pulled him out of the game after four innings due to a groin injury. The team says that Bauer is fine and that it was strictly precautionary, but the last thing a youngster wants in the back of his mind when he's on the mound is a potential injury scare. He finished with a mediocre stat line of two earned runs allowed in the four innings of work, with three strikeouts and three walks. This kid has the potential to be amazing at some point, but I think the hype machine may have him a bit overrated at this point.
While Bauer has been getting a ton of hype in recent weeks, there's not enough of it going around for Andrew Cashner. The 25-year old right-hander was moved from the bullpen into the starting rotation as the Padres think that he has good enough stuff and a nice repertoire of pitches. They sent him down the minors to be stretched out for his new role, and he dominated going 2-0 with a 1.88 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. He also struck out 23 batters while only walking three down on the farm. Last week Cashner was promoted back to the big leagues and he continued his torrid run. He allowed only two earned runs in 6 1/3 innings while punching out nine batters and only walking one. While he didn't get the victory, his team got the win and much of that was due to the great performance of the youngster. While he hasn't gotten the kind of attention the Bauer has received, Cashner has great stuff and has the potential to be an ace someday as well. He'll obviously have a tough test tonight in a hitter's park against a pretty good lineup, but I think he's going to surprise some folks and ruin the home debut for the rookie Bauer. |
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07-03-12 | LA Anaheim: D Haren v. Cleveland: Mcallister +106 | 5-9 | Win | 106 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
Two teams seemingly going in opposite directions matchup today in Cleveland as the Indians host the Los Angeles Angels. The Angels have been the hottest team in baseball over the last six weeks going 30-14, which is the best mark in baseball during that stretch. Albert Pujols finally broke out of his slump, the Angels bullpen completely turned things around and their solid starting pitching has held up pretty well. The problem with the Angels' current hot streak from a betting standpoint is that everyone expected it and it's been well documented. Consequently, there isn't much value to be gained playing on the Angels. The opposite can be said of the Indians, who are in a mini slump right now. After a strong start to the 2012 campaign, the Tribe is only 13-18 in their last 31 games. Again, many people out there expected them to eventually struggle as they were winning ugly and taking home a lot of close games. So what do we make of this is the question.
With the public perception high on the Angels right now and down on the Indians at the moment, it seems as if the line on this game has been set a bit too high. The Angels clearly aren't as good as they've been playing over the last six weeks and the Indians aren't as bad as they've been performing for the last month or so. As these teams regress more towards their normal means, I think we have a line on this game that has Cleveland favored. Dan Haren goes for the Angels and it's been a difficult season for him. He comes in at 6-7 with a 4.53 ERA and 1.37 WHIP, easily his worst season since he broke into the big leagues. Lingering back problems have hindered Haren at times this season and from watching him pitch you can tell that he's not 100% out there. He'll be opposed by rookie Zach McAllister of the Indians. The 24-year old has looked confident in his five starts this season and is 2-1 with a 3.82 ERA against some pretty good competition. So far he's faced Baltimore, Detroit, Seattle, Boston and the White Sox. I like the Indians in this game as I think they have the better starting pitcher and are at home in Progressive Field. Take the Tribe here. |
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07-02-12 | Cincinnati Reds v. Los Angeles Dodgers -104 | 8-2 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #912 Los Angeles Dodgers over Cincinnati Reds (10:10pm EST) There's no question that information is the key to winning at sports betting. However, in today's Internet age everyone has access to nearly all of the same information, so it's those who apply it properly that come out on top. Often times we see information being used incorrectly or factors overcompensated for in the marketplace. Today's game between the Cincinnati Reds and Los Angeles Dodgers fits into that category. It's no secret that the Dodgers have struggled to score runs lately. Over their last seven games they've only scored a total of 10 runs and have been shut out an amazing five times. The loss of Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier has clearly taken a toll on their production, but they're not completely hopeless. The struggles of Los Angeles have been well documented over the last week resulting in a strong overreaction in the betting marketplace. Sure the Dodgers offense isn't going to be as good without their two best hitters, but they're also not going to be this bad. They have some decent major league hitters in that lineup remaining and last night they showed that they can still swing the bats. They tallied eight runs in a win against Dillon Gee and the Mets on Sunday Night baseball. Tonight they go up against a below average starter in Homer Bailey of the Reds. Bailey is 5-6 with a 4.42 ERA this season and it's starting to look like he will never be able to meet the lofty expectations placed on him when he came up with the Reds in 2007. He almost seems to be comfortable with the fact that he's going to be mediocre at best and there are no signs that he is improving.
The Dodgers send right-hander Chad Billingsley to the mound tonight. The 27-year old is 4-7 with a 4.18 ERA in 2012 and has struggled with inconsistency at times. However, he'll be facing a right-handed dominant lineup tonight, and that should bode well for him. The Reds also may be without star first baseman Joey Votto in this one as he injured his knee the other day and is questionable today. While everyone knows that the Dodger offense has been struggling, very little attention has been given to the fact that the Reds have had difficulties plating runs lately too. Over their last 12 games, the Reds are only averaging 3.1 runs per game and they're not the same away from home. The line on this game is definitely swayed heavily by the public's overreaction of the Dodgers' struggles. Los Angeles simply shouldn't be close to even money at home when the two teams have nearly identical records and they have the better starting pitcher on the hill. Take the Dodgers tonight. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-01-12 | Philadelphia Phillies -105 v. Miami Marlins | 2-5 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 37 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #951 Philadelphia Phillies over Miami Marlins (1:10pm EST) Very interesting matchup today in Miami as the Philadelphia Phillies take on the Marlins. Both teams have vastly underachieved this season, and the same can be said for today's starting pitchers. Ricky Nolasco of the Marlins has been one of those pitchers that fans have waited for to bust out. He has great stuff and a world of talent, but now at 30 years old, everyone is realizing that Nolasco probably will never put it all together. He's 6-6 with a 4.78 ERA this season and is one of the most inconsistent pitchers in the league. Two starts ago he was bombed for nine earned runs in 3 1/3 innings against the Red Sox. He followed that up with a gem against the Cardinals where he didn't allow a run in 6 2/3 innings. That's been the career of Ricky Nolasco. He can't be trusted, especially when he's in the favorite role.
Joe Blanton has had a similar career but did enjoy a little bit of success back in his days with Oakland. He's 7-6 with a 4.87 ERA on the 2012 campaign, but there are signs that Blanton may be turning the corner. In his last five starts, Blanton is 3-1 and the owner of an extremely impressive 34-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He's still struggled with runners on base and his ERA hasn't been pretty as a result. However, the skills are there and he's pitched well enough to deserve a better fate. As is the case with today's starting pitchers, the Marlins and Phillies have underperformed for their talent level in 2012. The Marlins made huge acquisitions in the offseason and find themselves with only a 37-40 record. The Phillies were the favorites to win the National League by most experts this season and they check in with an even worse record at 36-44. The Phillies, however, at least have a bit of an excuse and that's the injury bug. Ryan Howard has been out all season long, Chase Utley just returned earlier this week after missing the first three months and they've been without Roy Halladay for over six weeks - and that just covers the superstars. The Phillies are starting to get healthy and it's do or die time for them. They'll have to make a run now or else they'll be selling assets at the trade deadline. The Phillies have won Blanton's last four starts and the Marlins are only 1-6 in Nolasco's last seven starts as a home favorite. Blanton is in good form right now and I have a lot more trust in him shutting down the opposition than I do for Nolasco. Take the Phillies to win this game today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-30-12 | Boston Red Sox v. Seattle Mariners +142 | 2-3 | Win | 142 | 14 h 25 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #930 Seattle Mariners over Boston Red Sox (10:10pm EST) The Seattle Mariners take on the Boston Red Sox tonight in Safeco Field. Josh Beckett makes his return to the mound for the Red Sox after missing a few starts while on the disabled list for a shoulder injury. Shoulder issues are tricky and more times than not it takes a couple of starts before a pitcher gets back his velocity and control. It hasn't been a very good year for Beckett anyways, as he's only 4-7 with a 4.14 ERA. His stuff just hasn't been as good as usual as he's only striking out 6.4 batters per nine innings, which would be a career low. He may eventually find his way this season, but in the meantime he's somebody you want to be fading.
Rookie Erasmo Ramirez gets the call today for the Mariners. The 22-year old right-hander has had some encouraging starts this season and is coming off an eight inning, one run performance against Oakland where he struck out 10 and walked only one. He's striking out 7.4 batters per nine innings while only walking 2.2, a nearly 3-1 ratio. That's great command for a young hurler, but certainly not a surprise when you look at his minor league numbers. He'll face a tough Boston lineup today, but he's pitching in a great pitcher's haven in Safeco, which should give him some extra confidence. In fact, Safeco is the most difficult park for hitters this season as the opposition is only batting .218. Clearly the Red Sox are the better team overall, but it's not often you'll find a home underdog at a price of +135 when the opposing pitcher isn't at the top of his game. Beckett is merely an average pitcher at best right now, and Ramirez is an up and coming youngster that is building confidence. Take the Mariners as we see some great value in this matchup. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-30-12 | Cincinnati: M Latos -120 v. San Francisco: B Zito | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #905 Cincinnati Reds over San Francisco Giants (4:05pm EST) Two first place teams square off as the Cincinnati Reds battle the Giants in San Francisco. Both teams come in playing very good baseball of late. The Reds have won 23 of their last 38 games and still have a lot of room for improvement on the offensive side. The Reds check in at right in the middle of the pack in the National League at 4.3 runs per game. That's a far cry from last season when they were second in the league in runs scored. They have basically the same collection of hitters, so I think we'll see them get back to their form from last season in due time. The reason that they've attained a record of 42-34 is their solid starting pitching and a great bullpen. They're fifth in the league in ERA at 3.50 and have one of the best closers in baseball in Aroldis Chapman. When they get the bats swinging well, they are going to be a very difficult team to beat. Mat Latos gets the ball for the Reds today. The talented right-hander has had a shaky season, but he's found a bit of a groove lately and is pitching his best baseball right now. In his last start he struck out 13 batters in a complete game effort where he only allowed one run. He's been keeping the ball down in the zone in his last few starts, something that he wasn't doing earlier in the season when he really struggled.
The Giants come in winning six of their last eight games and find themselves at the top of the National League West. Their recipe has been similar to the Reds, as they have relied on good pitching from both their starting rotation and their bullpen. The hitting is coming around, but they are still only ranked 10th in the league in runs scored. Barry Zito gets the nod in this one for San Francisco. He hasn't been good since he joined the Giants in 2007 and this year is no different. He has a 4.00 ERA, but his peripheral numbers are terrible, so we should see that ERA spike up shortly. The Reds beat up left-handers pretty good and there's little doubt that they'll be able to knock out Zito before he completes five innings. The Reds have won their last five starts with Latos on the mound as a favorite. The Giants, on the other hand, are only 6-14 in Zito's last 20 starts as an underdog. Huge mismatch on the mound today and that's where the value lies. Take the Reds to win their second straight against the Giants today, in our Game of the Day. |
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06-30-12 | Chicago (A): J Peavy v. New York (A): H Kuroda -122 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 16 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #920 New York Yankees over Chicago White Sox (1:05pm EST) It's another showdown of first place teams as the New York Yankees host the Chicago White Sox in the third game of this four-game set. The White Sox have had the upper hand in the first two games in this series winning by scores of 4-3 and 14-7. There's no question that the Yankees don't like getting embarrassed in front of their own fans, and that's exactly what happened last night. They'll be focused and locked in for this one after that debacle.
We have a good pitching matchup this afternoon as Jake Peavy takes on Hiroki Kuroda. Peavy is 6-4 with a 2.84 ERA and 0.99 WHIP this season. He's been good all season long, but lately he's been leaving more pitches up in the zone. He's lucky because he hasn't paid for his mistakes as those balls haven't went for home runs. However, if he leaves anything up in the zone today, there's a good chance that it finds the stands. Yankees Stadium on a hot day is a hitter's haven and there's a good chance we'll see a few dingers in this one. Kuroda is 7-7 with a 3.40 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 2012. He's done a good job of keeping the ball in the stadium while pitching at home this season. In Kuroda's eight home starts, he's only yielded five home runs. He knows how to pitch in Yankee Stadium and I think that gives him a slight edge over Peavy today. Today's game is a rather easy handicap, as the Yankees hold an advantage over the White Sox in the big three categories. They have the better starting pitcher, the better offense and the better bullpen. Throw in another decent sized edge for home field advantage, and this line should be above the -150 range with all things considered. That's a big enough edge for us to be on the Yankees here as they look to avenge two straight losses to the White Sox. |
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06-29-12 | Philadelphia Phillies +104 v. Miami Marlins | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #953 Philadelphia Phillies over Miami Marlins (7:10pm EST) It's do or die time for the Philadelphia Phillies. At 36-42 in last place in the National League East, the Phils need to make some noise right away or else they'll be sellers at the trading deadline looking ahead to next year. They got a big shot in the arm the other night when Chase Utley returned to the lineup after missing the first three months of the season. All he did was go 3-5 with a home run in his debut, hitting in the third spot in the lineup. There's no question that having him in the lineup will improve an already above average offense, and will help the team defensively. Veteran Cliff Lee takes the mound for Philadelphia today looking for his first win of the season. Lee has deserved better as he hasn't pitched that badly this season. His ERA is at 3.72, which is much higher than his career mark, but his peripheral numbers are all nearly identical. He's been plagued by a high .320 average on balls in play, but that will come down as the season progresses.
Josh Johnson takes the ball for the Miami Marlins in this matchup. He's had a good season despite a higher ERA as well. With a 3.96 ERA, Johnson has suffered some of the same bad luck as Lee as his opponents have a .348 average on balls in play. I give Lee a slight edge over Johnson today as he has much better career numbers and is far less erratic than his counterpart. The Marlins team has also just been a disaster recently. At 4-17 in their last 21 games, Miami has gone from a serious playoff contender to a team that is lost and without hope. The offense has been the biggest culprit during this stretch as they are only average 3.1 runs per game. They've also experienced several bullpen implosions as closer Heath Bell has a 6.35 ERA on the season. The Marlins have lost their last seven games against left-handed starters and today they face on the league's best. The return of Utley should provide the spark to get this Phillies team rolling and it starts with a victory over the struggling Marlins today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-28-12 | San Diego: A Cashner +105 v. Houston: D Keuchel | Top | 7-3 | Win | 105 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #907 San Diego Padres over Houston Astros (8:05pm EST) In most people's eyes, the Houston Astros have exceeded expectations so far in 2012. Before the season, most had projected them as the worst team in baseball and penciled them in for close to 100 losses. But is this team really that much better than people expected right now? At 32-43 thru 75 games, the Astros are on pace to go 67-95 for a full season - not very far off from the 100 losses that everyone expected. And in their last 28 games, they are only 10-18 for a winning percentage of .357. So things are definitely headed in the wrong direction and they might just end up being the worst team in baseball when it's all said and done. The hitting is improved from last season, but they're still only ranked ninth in the National League. The bullpen, led by Brett Myers, started the season very strong but has been terrible lately. They now have a 4.55 ERA on the season, good enough for 13th in the league. Today's starter for Houston is rookie Dallas Keuchel. The 24-year old left-hander made his major league debut in Arlington 10 days ago and pitched well enough to keep the Rangers to just one run in five innings. He followed that up with a complete game performance against the Indians in which he only allowed one run again. That's not a bad start for a rookie, but he only has one way to go from there and that is down. Now that he has pitched a couple of quality games at the major league level, you can bet that the Padres will have him well-scouted and will be prepared in the batter's box against him. Keuchel didn't even pitch this well in the minor leagues this season as he had a 4.26 ERA in 13 starts - another reason to expect some regression.
It's been a tough road for the Padres this season, but there are some reasons for optimism. The team is 27-49 through 76 games, but they are 8-9 over their last 17 games and have been in nearly game in that stretch. Their improvement coincides with the return of Carlos Quentin from the disabled list. Quentin missed the first two months of the season with a knee injury, but since coming back he's hitting .325 with six home runs and 14 RBI. Clearly having him in the middle of the lineup makes it a more difficult lineup to navigate and helps the hitters around him. San Diego also has one of the better bullpens in the National League, which always seems to be the case. Another bright spot for the Padres this season comes from out of that bullpen and into the starting rotation. Andrew Cashner, who was acquired from the Chicago Cubs in the offseason, will make the start today. The right-hander pitched in the bullpen with the Cubs last year and in the beginning of this season for the Padres. However, the Padres think he has good enough stuff and a good variety of pitches to be more effective as a starter. And based on his recent results, I think they might be right. Cashner was sent to the minor leagues to be stretched out for his new role, and he simply dominated the competition. In three starts, he went 2-0 while posting a 1.88 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. More importantly, he struck out 23 batters while only walking three. Cashner was a highly-rated prospect in the Cubs organization when he came up, and I think he will live up to those expectations as a member of the Padres. The Padres are a playing a little bit better than what their current record indicates and the opposite can be said for the Astros. San Diego is the better team going forward and they also have the better youngster in this pitching matchup today. We'll gladly accept this underdog price tag on the Padres in this one. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-27-12 | LA Anaheim: J Weaver v. Baltimore: J Hammel +120 | 13-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #978 Baltimore Orioles over Los Angeles Angels (7:05pm EST) Good pitching matchup tonight in Baltimore as Jason Hammel and the Orioles host Jered Weaver and the Los Angeles Angels. Hammel has been a pleasant surprise this season after being acquired in the offseason from Colorado. The right-hander is 8-2 with a 2.61 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 14 starts this season. He's also coming off his best outing of the season where he pitched eight innings without allowing an earned run while striking out 10 batters and walking none. One of the keys to success for Hammel this season has been his ability to keep the ball down in the zone and induce plenty of ground ball outs. His 53% groundball rate is nearly 10% higher than last season. He also is striking out 8.7 batters per game, which is a 40% improvement from last season. Hammel will be opposed by Jered Weaver today. This is Weaver's second game back after being placed on the disabled list with a back injury. He pitched well in his first start back against the Giants but he wasn't dominant. Weaver's numbers are impressive and are right in line with what he accomplished last season being the runner-up in the Cy Young voting. I think it may take a couple of starts before Weaver is back in top form, so we probably won't see his best stuff tonight and he will be on a close watch for pitch count.
Hammel looks like he'll get a spot in the All-Star game this year, but he still isn't enough respect from the betting markets. The Orioles are an underdog at home with Hammel on the mound, which doesn't make a lot of sense here. Weaver is only a slightly better pitcher than Hammel right now, but the Orioles have a better offense, better bullpen and are playing this game in Camden Yards. Baltimore has won Hammel's last four starts and I think they make it five today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-26-12 | Pittsburgh: E Bedard v. Philadelphia: V Worley -139 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #902 Philadelphia Phillies over Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05pm EST) The Philadelphia Phillies host the Pittsburgh Pirates in the second game of the series between these in-state rivals. The Phillies took last night's game 8-3 behind a quality pitching performance by Joe Blanton and a steady flow of offense throughout the game. The Pirates have been one of the surprise teams this season at 38-34, but a closer look into the numbers indicates that they might be fooling some people. The Pirates have a -10 run differential on the season, but have been a bit on the lucky side going 17-12 in one run games. They've also played one of the weakest schedules in all of baseball as they play in the NL Central and had a very favorable Interleague schedule against the AL Central. Those are easily the two worst divisions in baseball. The Phillies are stuck playing in a difficult NL East and had to match up against the AL East in Interleague. Those are the two toughest divisions in all of baseball. The Phillies are only 35-40 through their first 75 games, but if they were playing the Pirates schedule that would very likely be well above .500 right now. The imbalanced schedule has long been a problem in Major League Baseball, and next year the problem will be solved with the Astros heading to the American League and everyone playing a balanced schedule. However, this season still poses plenty of scheduling differences and that provides a great opportunity for bettors.
Today's start Erik Bedard hasn't been quite right for the last few weeks. He started out the season very strong in his first six starts with a 2.65 ERA and a corresponding 37-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio. However, in his seventh start on May 9, Bedard came out of the game with back spasms after just the first inning. Since that start, Bedard has a 5.59 ERA and a mediocre 32-18 strikeout-to-walk ratio in seven outings. It's not clear if he is still pitching through some pain or not with his back spasms, but he definitely isn't the same pitcher that he was earlier on in the season. The Phillies counter with right-hander Vance Worley tonight. The 24-year old is probably the most underrated member of the Phillies rotation and has put together a solid season after blowing away the National League in his rookie campaign last year. He comes in with a 2.78 ERA and 1.25 WHIP to go along with a 61-23 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The Pirates are still struggling to score runs and are ranked 15th in the National League offensively. The Phillies are slowly starting to get healthier and their production has improved as the season has gone along. The Phillies have won 25 of the last 33 meetings between these teams in Philadelphia. I like the Phillies to get to Bedard early and often today and for Worley to pitch a solid game behind the home fans. Take Philadelphia tonight. |
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06-25-12 | Chicago White Sox v. Minnesota Twins +115 | 1-4 | Win | 115 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #972 Minnesota Twins over Chicago White Sox (8:10pm EST) American League Central rivals square off tonight in Minnesota as the Twins take on the Chicago White Sox. The pitching matchup in this one features two starters going in opposite directions. Francisco Liriano of the Twins began the season about as poorly as you possibly could in his first six starts. He went 0-5 with a 9.45 ERA and simply could not locate the strike zone on a consistent basis. The Twins put him in the bullpen to work out his mechanical issues and he did well enough to earn a second chance in the rotation. Since being placed back in the starting five, Liriano has a 2.67 ERA and a very respectable 35-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Liriano has always been one of those on-again off-again type of pitchers, but he's definitely on right now. The same can't be said of White Sox hurler Jake Peavy. The 31-year old right-hander was having a nice comeback year to start the season, but he hasn't looked as sharp lately. Despite holding his opponents down on the scoreboard, Peavy's strikeouts have declined sharply over his last four starts and he only has a 19-13 strikeout-to-walk ratio over that span. As a result, he's relying on some luck and his fielders quite a bit in preventing runs right now. That won't last for long unless he makes the changes to improve on his ratios.
The Twins lineup is finally healthy again as they've sustained several injuries this season - most notably to Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer. When those guys are both in there, the lineup has an entirely different feel and the Twins' production is above league-average. That's the case tonight, so Peavy should have his hands full in this one. The White Sox just added Kevin Youkilis to the team in a trade with the Red Sox yesterday. It's still not certain if he'll be in the lineup tonight or not, but it will be interesting to see if Youk can bounce back after a rough start and help out Chicago this season. The White Sox could use another solid bat in the lineup to help protect Konerko and Dunn. The White Sox won yesterday 1-0 in extra innings against the Brewers in Chicago, but then had to hop on a plane immediately to head to Minnesota to start a seven-game road trip. The first game of a road trip is usually a little bit tougher, and especially when it's against a red hot pitcher like Liriano. With Peavy's stuff noticeably dropping off, I think the Twins will jump out to an early lead and their bullpen should be able to nail it down the way they've been going lately. Take Minnesota as a home underdog tonight. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-25-12 | Detroit: R Porcello +141 v. Texas: J Grimm | 8-2 | Win | 141 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #969 Detroit Tigers over Texas Rangers (8:05pm EST) There is no question that the Detroit Tigers have been a huge disappointment this season. They are 35-37 so far and sit in only third place in the weak American League Central. The good news is that they are only three games back in the division and they haven't had any semblance of a long winning streak yet. Last year the Tigers were slow out of the gates starting out 12-17 before ending up with 95 victories when things were all said and done. This year's version of the team has even more talent and I think they have a strong run in them still. The marketplace has definitely downgraded the Tigers considerably, and now we're starting to see some attractive lines on them as underdogs. Today is one of those instances, as Detroit comes into Arlington as a +140 underdog against a rookie pitcher for the Texas Rangers.
Justin Grimm is that rookie and this will only be the second start of his major league career. Nobody expected Grimm to be starting any games for the Rangers this season but, with three of their starting pitchers currently on the disabled list, Grimm was given a chance last week. He pitched reasonably well against the Astros but he'll be facing a much more potent lineup today. Rick Porcello will be in charge of trying to keep the Rangers at bay tonight. The 23-year old right-hander has thrown some encouraging starts of late and he generally pitches well enough to keep his team in the game. He has given up more than four earned runs only twice this entire season thus far. The Rangers have a tough lineup but Porcello has plus stuff and should be able to keep them guessing. The Rangers dominated Interleague play going 12-3 against the weak National League teams. However, in their last 32 games against American League teams they are only 14-18. After a red hot start to the 2012 season, the Rangers seemed complacent with a big lead in the American League West, but all of a sudden the Angels are on their tail. With a rookie pitcher on the mound for Texas, this line just feels too high. Take the Tigers tonight. |
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06-23-12 | New York Yankees -145 v. New York Mets | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #967 New York Yankees over New York Mets (7:15pm EST) The Subway Series is heating up as the New York Mets finally defeated the Yankees last night - their first win in four chances this season. Mets reliever added some fuel to the fire as he called out the Yankees as a collection of chickens in an interview before the game. Apparently it didn't quite fire up the Yankees as much as it should as they lost 6-4 and Francisco closed it out in the ninth. However, the Yanks have a good shot for revenge tonight as they have a favorable pitching matchup in this one. Ivan Nova takes the ball for the Bronx Bombers and he has found a nice groove of late. In his last three starts, Nova is 3-0 with a 0.79 ERA and a 15-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He's seemed to learn to keep his fastball down in the zone more often as he's cut down on the number of fly balls and home runs allowed from earlier on in the season. Soft-tossing Chris Young heads to the mound for the Mets in this one. Young is making his fourth start of the season in his comeback bid after missing most of the last two seasons with injuries. Young knows how to pitch, but his stuff is clearly not as good as it was years ago. He's only throwing his fastball at 84mph, which makes it difficult to get any strikeouts. As a result, he's only averaging 4.1 strikeouts per nine innings. With a patient-hitting team like the Yankees, Young will definitely get himself in some trouble and without the ability to strike someone out, it will be hard to stop the bleeding.
The Yankees have dominated Interleague play again this season with a 10-3 mark, including a 3-1 record versus the Mets. The American League is just too much too handle for the National League and they've proved it for eight straight seasons. The Yankees are also 24-6 in Nova's last 30 starts dating back to last season. With the pitching matchup we have on the mound, I expect the Yankees to take this one easily. |
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06-23-12 | Atlanta Braves v. Boston Red Sox -138 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #970 Boston Red Sox over Atlanta Braves (7:15pm EST) The Boston Red Sox have been through a lot of adversity this season, but they haven't stopped fighting. At the 70-game mark of the season, Boston is 36-34 and right in the middle of things in the difficult American League East. That's despite going through a difficult managerial change this season that has caused some turmoil in the clubhouse and dealing with a multitude of injuries to several key players. Bobby Valentine has a unique management style and quite frankly it doesn't jive with the personalities of the Red Sox players. There was definitely friction at the outset, but I think the players are finally adjusting and everyone just wants to play baseball. Nobody in baseball has put more players on the disabled list than the Red Sox have in 2012. They lost their entire starting outfield and were without Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis off and on as well. But the Red Sox have persisted and are still ranked as the second best offense in all of baseball. They've also turned things around in their bullpen, which was a complete disaster the first two weeks of the season and now is a strength. The starting pitching has been spotty this season and today's starter Franklin Morales had to step into a starting role due to the injury to Josh Beckett. Morales has worked exclusively in the bullpen since 2009. He was effective in a middle relief role this season so the Red Sox utilized him as a starter last Sunday night against the Cubs and Morales proved that he belonged. In five innings of work, Morales gave up two earned runs while striking out nine and walking none. He pitched better than just about everyone expected and his confidence has to be sky high right now.
The Braves counter with rookie Randall Delgado today. Delgado has had a decent rookie campaign at 4-7 with a 4.12 ERA, but more was definitely expected of him. Today he'll go into a hostile environment in Boston and I think it might be a little more than the rookie can handle. The Red Sox have been swinging the bats well average 6.3 runs per game over their last eight contests, and now that they've finally told Youkilis that he's going to be riding the bench, they have their optimal lineup out there every day. The Braves are only 3-8 in Delgado's last 11 starts and I'm not sure the rookie's confidence is in the right place at the moment. Take the Red Sox as a small favorite at home today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-22-12 | Milwaukee Brewers +120 v. Chicago White Sox | 1-0 | Win | 120 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #921 Milwaukee Brewers over Chicago White Sox (8:10pm EST) We have a classic pitcher's duel lined up today in Chicago as the White Sox host the Milwaukee Brewers. Veteran Zack Greinke goes up against youngster Chris Sale as two power arms look to shut down the opposition. Over the last few seasons Greinke has established himself as one of the best pitchers in the game. He doesn't get a lot of attention pitching in Milwaukee, but his numbers speak for themselves. Since joining the Brewers at the beginning of 2011, all he has done is go 23-8 with a 3.58 ERA and average 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings. And don't forget, he won the 2009 AL Cy Young award with the Royals, so he can pitch against American League teams as well. This is only Chris Sale's first season as a starting pitcher, but he's quickly made a reputation for himself around baseball. The big left-hander has a devastating fastball and has some qualities that remind some of Randy Johnson. He's 8-2 with a 2.46 ERA (third in the AL) and 1.00 WHIP so far in 2012, and he's still learning each and every start. However, it will get tougher on him as the rest of the league adjusts to his style and sees him more often.
Both Milwaukee and Chicago are ranked fourth in their respective leagues in runs scored, as they both possess a bevy of power bats in their lineup. I don't expect either team to get much traction against today's starters, however. The bullpens are subpar for both teams, but they shouldn't get many innings in today. Weighing everything, this game is a virtual toss up in my eyes. Chicago might warrant being a very slight favorite with home field advantage, but the price on this game is just too high. Greinke should never be a +125 dog to anyone that isn't one of the best teams in baseball. The White Sox are a good team, but at 36-33 they're nothing special. Take the Brewers in what should be a great game today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-21-12 | Tampa Bay Rays +125 v. Washington Nationals | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
10-unit Play Take #925 Tampa Bay Rays over Washington Nationals (7:05pm EST) The Tampa Bay Rays know how to win baseball games. Sometimes it feels like they do it with smoke and mirrors, but after several years of success, they are no fluke. The Rays are 38-30 this season and are right in the mix in the difficult American League East. They have the best manager in the game in Joe Maddon and a group of players that puts the team first before individual accomplishments. Many thought that this team could crumble when Evan Longoria went out with a hamstring injury over six weeks ago. The Rays, however, have held steady without their star third baseman going 24-22 in his absence. Tampa has been able to keep it together with excellent starting pitching and a solid bullpen. Today's starter Matt Moore had a bit of a shaky start to the season, but he's finally got his confidence back. Over his last four starts, Moore is 3-1 with a 2.42 ERA and a 31-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Earlier on in the season, the expectations were high for the 22-year old, which put a lot of extra pressure on him. But he's seemed to have found his comfort zone now and his amazing stuff is taking the league by storm.
The Washington Nationals have finally found success this season and are leading the National League East with a 39-27 record. Their recipe for success has been the same as for the Rays - excellent starting pitching and a dependable bullpen. Washington leads the major leagues with a 3.03 ERA and is third in strikeouts. Today's starter Gio Gonzalez is one of the main reasons for the success as he's 8-3 with a 2.52 ERA and is averaging 11.1 strikeouts per nine innings. Clearly the National League was the right place for him as he was never this sharp in Oakland. So we have two excellent starting pitchers going today who are both in good current form and two bullpens that can close out games. As a result, I think this game is going to come down to the offenses - and that's where Tampa Bay has the big advantage. The Rays are a middle of the pack kind of offense without Longoria, averaging 4.3 runs per game. The Nationals, however, have struggled to put runs on the board all year as some of their big guns are having miserable seasons. Washington is 13th in the National League is runs per game at only 3.8 thus far, and they have struggled mightily against left-handed pitching this season. The Rays should be able to put more pressure on Gonzalez in this one and he'll be the first one to crack in a game that looks to be a pitcher's duel. Joe Maddon and the Rays always seem to find a way to win these types of games, so they are the play today with a nice underdog price tag. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-20-12 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. Oakland A's -115 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #930 Oakland A's over Los Angeles Dodgers (10:05pm EST) The Oakland A's have quietly been playing some pretty good baseball lately, winning six of their last seven games. Their resurgence has been fueled by their offense, which has averaged 6.6 runs per game during the current run. The A's offense is ranked last in the American League in runs scored, but it's encouraging to finally see some of their young players step up and realize some of their potential. I'd be surprised if this is still the worst offense in the league by the time we're at the All-Star break. Today's starter for Oakland is Tommy Milone. The rookie left-hander is having a respectable season at 6-5 with a 4.48 ERA, but he has one of the most extreme splits in the major leagues. The soft-tosser is 2-4 with a 7.42 ERA and .317 opponent's average on the road, but is 4-1 with a 0.98 ERA and .186 opponent's average at the O.Co Coliseum. It's not unusual for rookies to pitch a lot better at home for obvious reasons, but Milone is clearly taking advantage of his home ballpark better than most. He is an extreme fly ball pitcher, which can spell trouble in some of the smaller parks around the league, but in Oakland that bodes well for him as there is plenty of room to operate in the outfield. Milone certainly won't maintain that extreme of a home/road split all season, but he's definitely someone you want look at a closely when he's pitching in Oakland.
The Los Angeles Dodgers are one of the surprise teams of 2012 at 42-26 and in first place in the National League West. However, the team taking the field tonight isn't exactly the same one that got the Dodgers to this point. MVP Matt Kemp has been on the disabled list for the last few weeks and the lineup just isn't nearly as potent without him. Over their last 25 games, the Dodgers are actually only 12-13. Today's starting pitcher Nathan Eovaldi is new to the Dodger's rotation, stepping in with the injury to veteran Ted Lilly. Eovaldi is a 22-year fireballer that has a lot of upside, but is still learning to pitch. He's looked fairly impressive in his four starts this season, but the team has yet to register a win with him on the mound. The way that Oakland has been hitting the ball, they should be able to get to the youngster in this one. The Dodgers, without Kemp, will have a tough time with Milone. Take the A's at a modest price today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-20-12 | Cincinnati Reds v. Cleveland Indians -123 | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #916 Cleveland Indians over Cincinnati Reds (7:05pm EST) The Cleveland Indians are looking for the sweep against their intrastate rivals the Cincinnati Reds today. The Tribe won on a dramatic walk off home run by Asdrubal Cabrera in the bottom of the 10th last night. It was a big momentum type of game for them and that should carry over into today's game. Justin Masterson will look to stay sharp on the mound today for Cleveland. In his last two starts, the right-hander has pitched 14 innings with a 0.64 ERA and a 15-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Earlier in the season, Masterson was having some problems locating some of his pitches but he looks to be back in the form he was last season when he was competing for the AL Cy Young award. The Reds have also struggled a bit with righties this season so it's going to be tough sledding for them with a locked in pitcher like Masterson.
The Reds send veteran Bronson Arroyo to the bump today. Arroyo is having a good season at 3-4 with a 3.84 ERA and 1.26 WHIP, but the question is if he can sustain it or not. It's hard to imagine that at age 35 Arroyo is getting any better. Last year, he turned in a 5.07 ERA and in the previous two seasons he was in the high 3's but had really bad peripheral numbers. I think we'll see some regression from Arroyo and an ERA in the mid-4's by the time it's all said and done this season. Cleveland's lineup has underachieved this season, but a lot of their struggles have been due to an onset of injuries. They're slowly starting to get everyone back and I think their offense has the potential to be very good. The Indians have done well in the favorite spot dating back to the end of last season and are 26-12 in their last 38 as a favorite. With Masterson pitching the way he is, the Tribe have a great chance to complete the sweep. |
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06-20-12 | Minnesota Twins +115 v. Pittsburgh Pirates | 2-1 | Win | 115 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #917 Minnesota Twins over Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05pm EST) The Minnesota Twins take on the Pittsburgh Pirates in a game where it appears that the wrong team is favored. First things first, the Twins are an American League team and the Pittsburgh Pirates are from the National League. That shouldn't be news to anyone, but for some reason the linesmakers continue to over value teams from the NL and under value teams in the AL. The AL has dominated the NL so far in Interleague play this season and this has been going on for years. Cleary the AL is the superior league and if the Twins were in the National League Central, they'd probably have a winning record and be favored here today. However, the Twins come in at only 26-40 while the Pittsburgh is 35-31 so far, giving the false impression that the Pirates are a better baseball team.
Francisco Liriano goes up against Erik Bedard in today's matchup, and it's been a tale of two seasons for both of these starters. Liriano began the year about as badly as you could. He had an ERA north of 7 in his first six starts and was eventually moved to the bullpen in a desperation move to turn things around for him. He pitched pretty well out of the pen, so the Twins gave him a second chance in the rotation and he looks like a completely different pitcher now. In his four starts since rejoining the rotation, Liriano has a 3.04 ERA and a 29-10 strikeout-to-walk ratio - a far cry from his numbers earlier in the season. This is the Liriano that everyone expected and, now that he's found his groove, he's definitely a pitcher worth backing. It's been the complete opposite story for Mr. Bedard this season. He started out the season very strong in his first six starts with a 2.65 ERA and a corresponding 37-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio. However, in his seventh start on May 9, Bedard came out of the game with back spasms after just the first inning. Since that start, Bedard has a 6.39 ERA and a 25-16 strikeout-to-walk ratio in six outings. It's not clear if he is still pitching through some pain or not with his back spasms, but he definitely isn't the same pitcher that he was earlier on in the season. In comparing these offenses of these teams, the Twins are leaps and bounds ahead of the Pirates. Pittsburgh comes in not only as the worst hitting team in the major leagues, but they are on pace to set several records for futility in the Live Ball era. The Twins are only 12th in the American League in runs scored, but their two best hitters (Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer) have both missed time this season and the Twins lineup is completely different when those two are suited up. Mauer is questionable today but all indications are that he's going to be in the lineup. This is your classic bad American League team being better than an average National League team situation. Flip flop the leagues for these teams and the records would probably flip flop as well. Don't be fooled, the Twins are the better ball club and have the starting pitcher who is in much better current form. Take Minnesota as the underdog in a game where they should clearly be the favorites in my eyes. |
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06-19-12 | Tampa Bay Rays -137 v. Washington Nationals | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #959 Tampa Bay Rays over Washington Nationals (7:05pm EST) The Tampa Bay Rays invade the nation's capital tonight to take on the Nationals in the first of three. We have quite a mismatch on the mound today as David Price goes up against Chien-Ming Wang. At age 26, Price has established himself as one of the best pitchers in the American League. He is 8-4 with a 3.01 ERA and is inducing groundballs at a 54% rate, which is 10% better than this career average. It's clear that Price is finally learning how to pitch instead of just throwing. He was good enough to get by with just his great stuff before, but now he's even more dominant and confident. It's hard to believe given his reputation, but I think Price might be a bit undervalued still. Wang is making just his fourth start of the 2012 campaign after coming back from a hamstring injury in the spring. His control has been off since his return and his fastball velocity is way down from his normal levels. He walked five batters in his last outing and has yet to make it past the fifth inning in a start yet this season. Tampa Bay's lineup is pretty average without Evan Longoria, but they are smart hitters and will take advantage of a struggling pitcher when they face one. Wang may eventually get back to his old form, but the linesmakers are pricing the game as if he already has.
The Rays are 20-6 in their last 26 games with Price on the mound as a road favorite. They have a huge edge in the starting pitching department today and swing the bat much better than the Nationals do. This one could get ugly as the Rays look like the clear choice here. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-18-12 | Kansas City Royals v. Houston Astros -118 | 7-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #908 Houston Astros over Kansas City Royals (8:05pm EST) The Houston Astros host the Kansas City Royals in the first of a three-game set tonight. The Royals are coming into this game after a dramatic 15-inning win in St. Louis yesterday afternoon. However, the win was a costly one as the bullpen was taxed heavily with every arm being utilized. They also used quite a few bullpen arms in their previous game against the Cardinals on Saturday night as they gave up 10 runs. As a result, the Royals will be asking starting pitcher Jonathan Sanchez to pitch deeper into the game than usual tonight. That could be a big problem though, as Sanchez has been batting bicep tendinitis for the last few weeks and this is only his second start after coming back from the disabled list. The left-hander has had lots of control issues this season and those problems are exacerbated by the fact that he's still dealing with that injury.
J.A. Happ pitches today for the Astros and he's been one of the more underrated pitchers in the National League this season. Happ is only 4-7 with a 5.33 ERA, but he is actually pitching well and has very solid peripheral numbers. He is striking out 9.4 batters per nine innings while walking only 3.7, but his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is unusually high at .349 this season. Since a lot of that is driven by luck, that average will drop and we'll see a corresponding decrease in his ERA. Happ has really good stuff and I think he's capable of being a 15-game winner at some point in the future. He'll be facing a tired Kansas City lineup today as they played 15 innings yesterday and then had to fly into Houston immediately afterwards for this series. The first game of an Interleague series is always tough on the road team, not only for the travel, but for the fact that they are usually coming into a city and stadium that they're not used to seeing. The Royals haven't played in Houston since 2009, and since it's a more difficult ballpark to play in with some of the quirks in the outfield, that should help the Astros. The Royals are the better ball club overall, but this is a great situational play for the Astros. They catch a struggling Sanchez in a game where they'll likely see him pitch longer than he should, and the Royals will be pretty fatigued after a marathon game yesterday and then traveling into a new city. Happ is also the much better starting pitcher, so take the Astros today at a small price. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-17-12 | San Francisco Giants +100 v. Seattle Mariners | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #975 San Francisco Giants over Seattle Mariners (4:10pm EST) The Seattle Mariners and San Francisco Giants square off in the rubber match of the series. Madison Bumgarner takes the ball for the Giants today and he has had some lights out performances recently. Over his last five starts, the left-hander has had a 12K/0BB, 11K/0BB and 10K/1BB outing. That's sheer domination and it seems like Bumgarner might be reaching a new level. Bumgarner is 8-4 with a 3.08 ERA on the season and he's only 22 years old so his ceiling is still even higher. The Mariners will counter with Felix Hernandez. King Felix hasn't been the same pitcher that were used to seeing this season. At 4-5 with a 3.70 ERA and 1.31 WHIP, this is his worst year statistically since 2007. His velocity has been down and he's also had to fight through some back issues recently. His last start was pushed back and he basically missed a turn in the rotation. His results were not good as he yielded five runs in six innings while only striking out three and walking three. His two performances prior to that were almost as bad, so it's clear that Felix isn't 100% at this point.
Offensively speaking, this Giants team is a bit underrated while we could say the opposite for the Mariners. The Giants are currently only ranked 11th in the National League in runs scored, but there are a couple of compelling reasons that they will improve significantly. First, the Giants have endured several key injuries so far in 2012. Pablo Sandoval was out for about a month and is now back in the lineup. They also have had to sit Buster Posey down for a few games here and there for minor injuries and rest. Aubrey Huff has missed some as well as some of the other infielders. Now that they're getting healthy again, this lineup should be deeper and see more production. Secondly, the Giants are hitting a scant .182 with two outs and runners in scoring position on the season. This is one of the key stats that leads to runs scored and the Giants will undoubtedly improve on this terrible average throughout the season. They're getting them on base, but just need to do a better job of knocking them in. The Mariners are 11th in the American League in runs scored, but they have the worst OPS in the league they'll likely drop down even further. They have a severe lack of power in their lineup which makes it even more difficult to put together big innings. The Giants have won 13 of their last 19 games overall and the Mariners are 25-60 in their last 85 games against left-handed pitchers. Bumgarner is in much better form than Hernandez right now and the Giants are swinging the bats better, so they should take this one. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-17-12 | New York Yankees -116 v. Washington Nationals | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 3 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #961 New York Yankees over Washington Nationals (1:35pm EST) The weekend's best series is set to wrap up this afternoon in Washington D.C., where the New York Yankees look for the sweep against the Nationals. There was a lot of hype in the nation's capital about this series, as it was the most highly anticipated series that this city has seen since the team has relocated. For the Nationals, this series was about making a statement and validating their red hot start to the season against one of the American League's best. So far they have failed. They lost a heart-breaking game 5-3 yesterday in 14 innings. They had several chances to win in extra innings, but came up just short. Now they'll try to salvage the series today to avoid being swept by the Bronx Bombers.
Today's starters are Ivan Nova for the Yankees and Edwin Jackson for the Nationals. Nova remains one of the more underrated pitchers in the American League as he has much better stuff than his ERA indicates. He's shown great command this year and his strikeouts are way up from last year. If Nova were in the National League, I could see him being a top of the rotation kind of guy. Against a tough American League East division, he still holds his own. Edwin Jackson is about as erratic as they come. He has no-hitter kind of stuff on some days and on other days he can't get past the third inning. He'll go up against one of the toughest lineups in the major leagues today, and one that is very patient at the plate. That doesn't bode well for a pitcher like Jackson that loses his control at times. The Yankees walked nine times yesterday and they might be in line to get quite a few more today. The Yankees are now 17-5 in their last 22 games and seem to be getting all of the breaks. I respect the Nationals as a good baseball team, but if they were in the American League I think they'd be in the middle of the pack. The Yanks have the better starting pitcher today, the better offense and the better bullpen. We get a near pick em price in a game that should be almost -130, which is great value on New York and the reason we made it our Game of the Day. |
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06-17-12 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Cleveland Indians -133 | 9-5 | Loss | -133 | 4 h 23 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #956 Cleveland Indians over Pittsburgh Pirates (1:05pm EST) A quick look at the records of the Cleveland Indians and Pittsburgh Pirates might lead you to believe that they are about the same. However, a closer look into the numbers proves differently. At 33-31, the Pittsburgh Pirates sit in second place in the National League Central only 4.5 games behind the Cincinnati Reds. They've managed to stay around .500 all season due to some solid starting pitching and an overachieving bullpen. Their pen has the second best ERA in the National League, but none of their relievers are proven commodities and their peripheral stats are much worse once you dig in. As a result, don't expect their bunch of no name relievers to keep this up all season long. They have put together a pretty good starting rotation, but today's starter Brad Lincoln is not one of the good ones. He was moved into the rotation from the bullpen because of injuries and it's clear that he isn't as comfortable in his new role. As a reliever, Lincoln had a 0.45 ERA and held opposing batters to a .171 batting average. As a starter, he has a 6.91 ERA and batters are hitting .312 against him. Some guys take a while to adjust to starting a game and others just aren't cut out for it period. It appears as if Lincoln fits the description of one of those two. The Pirates offense isn't likely to carry Lincoln today as they are still ranked as the worst offense in all of baseball, and might end up being one of the worst offenses that we've seen in the Live Ball era. The Pirates average 3.2 runs per game and they desperately need someone else in their lineup besides Andrew McCutcheon to produce.
The Cleveland Indians have been flying under the radar a bit this season despite being above the .500 mark from the beginning. There are a lot of skeptics that think this team will regress just like they did last year after a solid start, but I don't think it's going to happen this season. Cleveland has put together a deep roster that has been able to sustain quite a few injuries already this season. They've been without Grady Sizemore for the entire 2012 campaign, and have also seen sluggers Travis Hafner and Carlos Santana spend time on the disabled list as well as some of their role players. Despite the injuries, Cleveland is in the middle of the pack of the American League offenses and they should only improve from there when everyone is 100%. Their starting pitching has been horrendous this season and they can only go up from here. But this Cleveland team is a fundamentally sound team that plays pretty good defense and runs the bases well. They do all of those little things that you don't see in the box score, and that goes a long way to winning baseball games. Today's starter for the Indians is Jeanmar Gomez. The 24-year youngster has been scuffling a bit this season but he's still learning and we should see incremental improvement in each start. The Pirates are one of the worst road teams in baseball over the last few seasons and with their woeful lineup, I expect Gomez to give us a good outing today. The Indians are clearly a better team than the Pirates and they play in the much tougher league. Most people don't account too much for the differences in leagues for Interleague play, but the advantage is significant. Getting a solid American League team at home at a -130 price against a below average National League team is a steal. Take the Tribe here today. |
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06-16-12 | Philadelphia Phillies -101 v. Toronto Blue Jays | 5-6 | Loss | -101 | 3 h 18 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #903 Philadelphia Phillies (-105) over Toronto Blue Jays (1:05pm EST) The Philadelphia Phillies have endured a nightmarish season in 2012 thus far. It started when they found out that they'd be without their top two sluggers, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, for at least the first half of the season. Then they started playing games and it hasn't gotten much better up to this point. At 31-35, the Phillies find themselves in the cellar of the difficult National League East. However, as bad as things have gone, the Phils are only 4.5 games away from a wild card spot and they will eventually be getting back their studs - including Roy Halladay, who has shelved with a shoulder injury a few weeks ago. None of what has happened thus has changed the way that today's starting pitcher goes about his business. Cliff Lee is still searching for his first win this season at 0-3 due to poor run support and some spotty bullpen work. However, his numbers are right in line with his career marks and he continues to pitch well enough to earn wins. The Phillies offense has really turned it up a notch over the last six weeks or so after a miserable April. They've moved up from 15th in the National League in runs scored at the end of April all the way to 5th in the league in runs.
The Blue Jays will go with left-hander Ricky Romero in this one. Romero has been somewhat of a mystery over the last couple of seasons. There have been times where he looks like a Cy Young type of pitcher and other times where he seems like he doesn't belong in a major league uniform. Right now he's experiencing the latter as he's given up at least four runs in four straight starts, including a performance in which he issued seven walks. Luckily for him the team has given him good run support to boost him to a 7-1 record. He can't expect to be bailed out by his offense every start, especially today with Cliff Lee on the other side. Romero will need to step up big to win this game and I don't think he has it in him quite yet. The Phillies have won 11 of their last 17 road games and I think they steal another one away from home here tonight. Take the Phillies behind one of the best pitchers in the majors at a very good price. |
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06-16-12 | New York Yankees -117 v. Washington Nationals | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 17 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #905 New York Yankees over Washington Nationals (1:05pm EST) The Washington Nationals host the New York Yankees in the marquee matchup of the weekend for Interleague play. The Yankees handed the Nationals a defeat yesterday 7-2 behind a good performance by Phil Hughes. Both of these teams have been playing excellent baseball recently and both sit atop their respective divisions, which are the two best divisions in baseball. Needless to say, this could be a potential World Series matchup in October. As a result, the intensity in this series will be increased and we should see the best these two teams have to offer. The Yankees started the season a bit slow by their standards, as several players in the lineup got off to horrible starts. They also endured some poor performances from their starting pitchers and had to shake things up in the rotation a bit. The Yankees have worked through those issues and they won't be a factor today. New York has averaged 5.3 runs over their last 21 games, en route to a 16-5 record over that stretch. And today's starting pitcher Andy Pettitte has returned to the Bronx to help solidify a staff that needed some stability. All Pettitte has done in his six starts since coming back is go 3-2 with a 2.81 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. More importantly, his strikeout and walk rates are nearly the best of his entire career and he's found a way to induce even more groundballs. I don't think anyone expected Pettitte to be quite this effective at age 40, but he's definitely found the fountain of youth.
The Nationals have led the National League East for most of the season and the main reason is their excellent starting rotation. The National starters have a combined 2.94 ERA, which is easily tops in the major leagues. One of the pitchers responsible for that success is today's starter Jordan Zimmermann. Zimmermann has a 2.91 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in his 12 starts this season, but his record stands at only 3-5 so far. That leads us to the biggest weakness on this Washington club - their offensive production. The Nationals rank 12th in the league in runs scored and is something that they'll have to improve upon if they want to be legitimate contenders. They thought that the return of Michael Morse from the disabled list would spark their offense, but he's only hit .229 so far and is still trying to find his rhythm. Bryce Harper has exceeded all expectations for the Nats, but he certainly can't do it all himself as he's the only one in the lineup having an above average season right now. I'm just not sure how much longer the starting pitchers can continue to dominate for Washington, so they'll need their offense to step up and I'm just not sure that they're capable. |
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06-15-12 | Miami Marlins v. Tampa Bay Rays -143 | 0-11 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #964 Tampa Bay Rays over Miami Marlins (7:10pm EST) Matt Moore was one of the most highly touted prospects we've seen over the last few years and last year he delivered for Tampa Bay in a big way during his brief call up. Coming into this season, the expectations were even bigger as some thought he could be the staff ace on a ballclub that has several of them. But at age 22, those expectations put a lot of pressure on Moore and he struggled out of the gate. The left-hander posted a 5.73 ERA in his first six starts of the season and there was speculation that he could be sent back down to the minor leagues for some fine tuning. However, the Rays stuck by him and Moore responded with a 3.44 ERA in his next six starts and had several dominating performances. He clearly is gaining confidence and pitched a solid game in his last outing in Miami against the same Marlins that he will face today. In that game, Moore struck out nine batters while only walking two. He surrendered four runs but kept his team in the game and was able to pick up the win.
Carlos Zambrano has had an up and down season, but you wouldn't expect anything less from the volatile veteran. Zambrano's career has been marred by inconsistency and this season is no different. Zambrano started the season out strong in his first eight starts, but things have fallen apart over his last four outings. In Zambrano's last four starts, he has a 7.71 ERA and has given up 10 bases on balls. In his last outing, he lost to the Rays in Miami by yielding seven earned runs in less than three innings of work. He'll have to bounce back today against the very same Rays team, which is no easy task after facing them just five days ago. The Marlins offense also has suddenly hit the skids averaging a miniscule 1.89 runs per game over their last nine contests - and all of those games were at home. It's tough to figure out why this team hasn't hit much this season, but some of it may have to do with adjusting to the style of new manager Ozzie Guillen. The fiery skipper handles his players a lot differently than most managers and it may be affecting this team's performance on the field. We had this same exact pitching matchup last week in Miami and the Rays came out on top 13-4. This one is in Tampa, where the Rays have one of the best home field advantages in baseball over the last few years. The betting market hasn't caught up to the fact that Moore is improving significantly and that Zambrano and Marlins offense have hit nearly rock bottom. Take Tampa Bay at a very generous price today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-15-12 | Cincinnati: B Arroyo v. New York (N): D Gee -123 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -123 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #952 New York Mets over Cincinnati Reds (7:10pm EST) The New York Mets host the Cincinnati Reds as the two teams begin a three-game weekend series in CitiField. Nobody expected the Mets to compete this season as they were picked by nearly everyone to finish dead last in the National League East. But they currently find themselves at 35-29 in second place in their division after a very impressive three-game sweep of the Tampa Bay Rays. One of the biggest surprises has been the production that the Mets have received from their lineup, which ranks fourth in runs scored in the National League. Despite having a handful of regulars on the disabled list for virtually the entire season, the Mets have received contributions from a few unlikely sources to put quite a few runs on the board. Now that they're getting healthy, this lineup has even more potential to keep producing at a high rate. Today's starter for the Mets is Dillon Gee. This is the second full season for the 26-year old right-hander and he's demonstrated that he's a very quick learner. Gee increased his strikeout rate over 30% from his rookie season and has reduced his walks by over 40%. He has also added percentage points to his groundball rate, which has helped to get him out of some jams. His ERA is roughly the same as it was last year at this point, but there's no question that Gee is much improved and his ERA will soon be dropping accordingly with his peripheral statistics.
It's been somewhat of a resurgence so far this season for Bronson Arroyo of the Reds. The 35-year old veteran had been declining in the past few years, but he seems to be bucking the trend a bit so far in 2012. Through 12 starts this season, Arroyo is 2-4 with a 3.79 after posting a 5.07 ERA last season. You generally don't see pitchers decline for several years in their mid-30's and all of a sudden break out of it. My guess is that we'll see the old Bronson Arroyo again soon and that the beginning of the season is more of a mirage. The Reds hitting has been disappointing this season at only 9th in the league in runs a year after finishing 2nd in runs scored. Besides Joey Votto, nobody in their lineup is having a very good season and they've struggled with runners in scoring position. Until someone else in the lineup emerges, you can't count on the Red's offense to carry this team. The Mets have gone 16-5 in their last 21 games against a right-handed starter and have won 7 of 10 at home. New York has the better starting pitcher in this game as well as the better overall lineup. Add that to their home field advantage and all of a sudden you're betting a game at -125 that should be over -140. Take the Mets as we get excellent value in this spot. |
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06-14-12 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Baltimore Orioles -105 | Top | 6-12 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #912 Baltimore Orioles over Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05pm EST) The Baltimore Orioles look for the sweep against the Pittsburgh Pirates in Camden Yards today. The O's won the first two games of the series 8-6 and 7-1 as they flexed their muscle at the plate. The Orioles continue to prove the skeptics wrong as they improved to 36-26 on the season, just one game out of first in the toughest division in baseball. It's clear by now that they aren't going anywhere anytime soon and will be contenders for the foreseeable future. The Orioles lineup also just got a boost as former All-Star second basemen Brian Roberts returned from the disabled list a couple of days ago and was inserted into the leadoff spot. While he isn't going to be the same player he once was, he still gives the O's a spark plug at the top of the order and is an upgrade at the position. Today's starter for Baltimore is Tommy Hunter. The 25-year old right-hander has had an up and down season, but he had a very encouraging start last time out against the Phillies. He went seven innings in that start allowing only three earned runs without issuing a walk. One of the keys to success for Hunter this season has been his increased groundball rate as he's finally starting to learn that keeping the ball on the ground will reduce his home run rate, which has been a problem for him in his career. I expect another quality start for Hunter today as he goes up against the worst lineup in baseball. The Pirates have been abysmal averaging only 3.2 runs per game on the season - dead last in the major leagues. They have four regulars batting under .230 and the only player having an above average season is Andrew McCutcheon.
The Orioles will face Pittsburgh starter Erik Bedard, who they should be pretty familiar with. Bedard pitched with the Orioles for the first five years of his career before arm injuries got the best of him. Bedard has tried to rejuvenate his career in Pittsburgh and is having a decent season at 4-6 with a 3.59 ERA. However, Bedard still may be battling an injury to his back as he was removed from a game on May 9 with back spasms after only one inning. Since that start, Bedard has a 4.88 ERA and a mediocre 24-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio in five starts. In his six starts prior to the injury, Bedard posted a 2.65 ERA and a 37-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio. It's not clear if he is still pitching through some pain or not, but he definitely isn't the same pitcher that he was earlier on in the season. The Orioles lineup is tough enough to face when you're on top of your game, but if you're struggling it's a very tall order. Baltimore has also hit left-handers very well this season and has won their last five games against southpaw starters. The Pirates better enjoy their 32-29 record, because I don't think they'll be above .500 for very much longer. Take the Orioles to get the sweep today as we should see another instance of the American League getting the best of the National League. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-13-12 | San Diego Padres +135 v. Seattle Mariners | 1-0 | Win | 135 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #979 San Diego Padres over Seattle Mariners (10:10pm EST) The Seattle Mariners host the San Diego Padres in a game that probably won't draw much interest from anyone outside of the fans of these teams. However, that doesn't mean that there isn't a good opportunity to make some money here. The Padres are clearly having a bad season at 21-41 through the first 62 games. They've had some very disappointing seasons from their starting rotation, their lineup hasn't produced much and the bullpen has let them down late in the game on several occasions. But there are some signs that things are starting to turn a bit in San Diego and that this team is better than what their record indicates. Offensively, the Padres are currently ranked 15th in the National League in runs scored ahead of only the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates. But the Padres are starting to get some of their injured players back and are hitting the ball well of late. Over their last 10 games, the Padres' offense is the sixth best in baseball. Much of their success can be traced to the return of Carlos Quentin, who missed the first two months of the season. Since returning roughly two weeks ago, Quentin is hitting .432 with five home runs and 10 RBIs. He changes the whole dynamic of the lineup and I expect to see much better production from San Diego in the meantime.
Due to injuries and some struggling arms, the Padres acquired right-hander Jason Marquis from the Minnesota Twins. It was clearly a desperation move, but Marquis has found success in the National League previously and he'll be much more comfortable in a pitcher-friendly park. He pitched very well in his first outing with the team last week going six innings while only allowing two earned runs with six strikeouts and one walk. He'll go head-to-head with Hector Noesi of the Mariners. Noesi has been plagued by inconsistency this season and comes in with a 2-6 mark and 5.99 ERA on the season. He is an extreme fly ball pitcher and those pitchers have a hard time succeeding because of the long ball. The Mariners offense is nothing special at 11th in the American League in runs scored. They could be even lower if not for a flukish 21-run performance against the Rangers about two weeks ago. Both of these teams today are bad, but I think the Padres are the more undervalued team right now and aren't far off from the Mariners level. As a result, I think this game is priced a bit too high and I like the Padres in this one. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-13-12 | New York Mets +136 v. Tampa Bay Rays | 9-1 | Win | 136 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #963 New York Mets over Tampa Bay Rays (7:10pm EST) We have a great pitcher's duel lined up in today's game between the New York Mets and Tampa Bay Rays. R.A. Dickey is clearly the hottest pitcher in all of baseball right now. Over his last four starts, the 27-year old knuckleballer is 4-0 with a 0.29 ERA and a 38-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio. You can't put up numbers much better than that and it will likely be the most dominant stretch you'll see by a starting pitcher all season long. Dickey's season numbers are amazing as well, as he's 9-1 with a 2.44 ERA and 1.04 WHIP on the 2012 campaign. If the Cy Young voting were right now, Dickey would surely be getting a very close look. The amazing thing is that Dickey still isn't getting very much respect by the betting markets. How often do you see a Cy Young caliber pitcher as a +135 underdog?
Part of the reason that the Mets are such a big underdog is that they're going up against David Price of the Rays. Price is having a fine season at 8-3 with a 2.40 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, but he's definitely not in the same form as Dickey is right now. The Rays offense has also been struggling mightily without their leader Evan Longoria. Over their last 20 games, Tampa statistically has the worst offense in the major leagues. Several of their regulars are experiencing career-worst production and the team has had to rely on their pitching to carry them. It's hard to imagine the Rays' offense suddenly waking up against a dominating knuckleballer who is pitching lights out right now. They also struggled against the soft-tossing Chris Young yesterday in an 11-2 loss to the Mets. The Mets have won Dickey's last five starts as an underdog and that's where they find themselves today. This line is clearly too high and we'll gladly take a shot on Dickey and the Mets to do it again. |
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06-13-12 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Baltimore Orioles -140 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #956 Baltimore Orioles over Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05pm EST) The Baltimore Orioles look to earn another victory against the Pittsburgh Pirates today in Camden Yards. The O's took last night's game 8-6, fueled by the return of second baseman Brian Roberts to the lineup. Roberts had missed the first two months of the season with a severe concussion, but he looked like he didn't miss a beat going 3-4 in the leadoff spot. He provides lots of energy and will instantly make this a better offense going forward. The Orioles are 6th in the American League in runs scored, but a host of injuries has hampered them lately, so getting Roberts back is big. At 35-26 on the season, Baltimore is still proving all of the skeptics wrong as they find themselves firmly in the middle of the American League East hunt.
The Pirates also find themselves in the mix of their division, the National League Central. Pittsburgh is only one game off the pace at 32-28 on the season, but they have been doing it with smoke and mirrors. The Pirates have the worst offense in all of baseball averaging only 3.2 runs per game. The only hitter not having a bad year is centerfielder Andrew McCutcheon. Their bullpen has vastly overachieved this season with the best ERA in the National League, but that can't be expected to continue. Overall, the Pirates have a run differential of -19 in 2012. Instead of being four games over .500, they should be about four games under .500 based on their differential. The Pirates are 17-10 in one-run games this season, a good indication that they will regress once they run out of luck. The pitching matchup today is fairly even, with Kevin Correia going up against Brian Matusz. Neither pitcher has been consistent at all this season, but Matusz has more upside and better stuff. The Orioles definitely have a much better offense and are playing at home today. The Pirates have been one of the worst road teams in baseball over the last several years, so it's a bigger advantage than normal for Baltimore. The line on this game doesn't make a lot of sense based on the facts. The Orioles have a much better team overall and they play in the most difficult division in baseball. The Pirates have been getting tons of breaks and play in one of the weakest divisions in baseball. Take the Orioles here today as we have at least 20 cents of value. |
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06-12-12 | Washington Nationals v. Toronto Blue Jays -153 | 4-2 | Loss | -153 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
8-unit Play Take #904 Toronto Blue Jays over Washington Nationals (7:05pm EST) The Toronto Blue Jays look to bounce back against the Washington Nationals tonight after dropping the first game of the series yesterday. At 31-30, the Blue Jays are an underrated commodity in the betting marketplace. They have played in the toughest division in baseball for over a decade and seem to always fly under the radar despite playing above .500 baseball. I've always contended that the Blue Jays could probably win half of the divisions in baseball and would benefit the greatest by moving out of the American League East. Now with an additional wild card team added to the playoffs, I think Toronto could have a legitimate shot to break through this season. Today the Jays send 22-year old Henderson Alvarez to the mound. The crafty right-hander doesn't strike out many batters, but he's a groundball machine and knows how to pitch to contact effectively. He comes in with a 3.76 ERA this season after posting a 3.53 ERA in his rookie season last year. He was a highly touted prospect in the Toronto organization for several years and I expect him to continue to improve at his young age. Today he'll face a mediocre Washington lineup that ranks 13th in the National League in runs scored. With the addition of Michael Morse back in the lineup and the promotion of Bryce Harper, the Nationals have a better lineup than they did earlier in the season, but it still lacks depth and balance.
The Blue Jays will be facing Chien-Ming Wang in today's game. Wang returned from the disabled list a couple of weeks ago and he doesn't look like he's even close to 100% yet. His fastball has been clocked around 87 mph, which is over 3.5 mph less than where he was last year and over 5 mph less than the last time he was actually effective back in 2009. This is just not the same sinkerball pitcher that was with the Yankees a few years ago. I'd be surprised if Wang can maintain his spot in the rotation all season long, as Washington has some other viable options in the system. Today Wang will face a tough challenge against one of the best lineups in baseball, and he's on the road. The Blue Jays are 9-4 in their last 13 games as a home favorite and they should get the job done today against a recovering pitcher. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-11-12 | New York Yankees -109 v. Atlanta Braves | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #953 New York Yankees over Atlanta Braves (7:10pm EST) A new series starts today as the Atlanta Braves host the New York Yankees. These teams have nearly identical records, but with the disparity of the talent in the leagues it's safe to say that the Yankees are the much better overall team. The Yankees have also won 13 of their last 17 contests and have rocketed up the standings to within 0.5 games of first place in the difficult American League East division. Ivan Nova throws for New York in this one. Nova (7-2) is one of the more underrated pitchers in the league as his ERA is much higher than it should be based on all of his peripheral numbers. He's won three straight starts and always has his team in the ballgame. The Yankees have won 17 of their last 23 interleague games following their sweep of the rival Mets over the weekend. They've also won 12 of the last 17 against Atlanta overall.
Rookie Randall Delgado goes for the Braves today. Delgado has been solid in his rookie campaign, but this will be his toughest test yet. The Yankees are a very patient team and they run the counts deep to keep pressure on the opposing pitcher. Delgado has had spotty control at times, so there's a good chance that he finds himself in a couple of jams because of free passes. The Braves are only 10-21 in their last 31 games that are the first game of a series. That tells me that they're not preparing for their opponents very well in the scouting department. The Yankees have the better starting pitcher today, the better lineup and the better bullpen. With all of the advantages and the line at only -110, I like the Yankees in this one. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-10-12 | Texas Rangers -130 v. San Francisco Giants | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 5 h 22 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #925 Texas Rangers over San Francisco Giants (4:05pm ET) It's the rubber game of the series this afternoon between the Texas Rangers and the San Francisco Giants. These teams have identical records at 34-26 but are worlds apart as far as playing ability. Playing in the American League, the Rangers have much more difficult competition, but it's even more pronounced when you dig into the actual schedules. Based on run differentials, the Giants have played the easiest schedule in all of baseball so far in 2012 while the Rangers have faced the 6th toughest schedule overall. If the Rangers were in the NL West instead of the AL West, they'd likely be at least five or six games better than the Giants right now. The Rangers also currently own a +66 run differential while San Francisco's is only +10. The Rangers have struggled a bit in close games while the Giants have played better when the game is tighter. Those types of things generally regress towards the mean as the season goes on, so we'll see the Rangers pull away as long as they stay healthy.
The Rangers have a very dangerous lineup and are tops in baseball with 315 runs scored on the season. They also have one of the best bullpens in all of baseball, evidenced by their 2.84 bullpen ERA that ranks second in the American League. Their problems have come in the starting rotation, where injuries and inconsistency have plagued them. As a result, relief pitcher Alexi Ogando has been placed into the rotation to help shore things up. Ogando was a member of the rotation last season and did really well in that role, but was bumped due to the promotion of Neftali Feliz at the beginning of the spring. Now with Feliz on the disabled list, Ogando has moved back into his familiar spot. The 28-year old right-hander is having a great season with a 2.27 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. He's averaging 9.4 strikeouts per nine innings and only allowing 2.0 walks per nine. I don't expect him to have any problem transitioning since he's been here before and knows what it takes to be a starting pitcher. Tim Lincecum gets the ball for the Giants today in AT&T Park. Lincecum has been a hot topic of discussion all season long as he's struggled with consistency. He's 2-6 with a 5.83 ERA and 1.52 ERA in 2012 and clearly isn't the same Lincecum that we're all used to seeing. He's lost a couple of miles per hour off of his fastball and has really struggled with walks in almost every start this season at a rate of 4.8 per nine innings. That has led to some big innings against the former All-Star and there's no telling when he'll get things figured out. The Rangers are probably the last lineup you want to see when you're struggling this badly, as each batter in their lineup puts pressure on opposing pitchers. The Giants are 5-16 in Lincecum's last 21 stars overall. The Rangers are a better team than the Giants in every which way, and they should coast today with a struggling Lincecum going. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-09-12 | Kansas City Royals v. Pittsburgh Pirates -143 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 12 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #972 Pittsburgh Pirates over Kansas City Royals (7:15pm ET) One of the hottest pitchers in all of baseball takes the mound in today's matchup between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Kansas City Royals. Pittsburgh's James McDonald is having a great season at 5-2 with a 2.14 ERA but has been even better over his last eight starts. Over that stretch, the 27-year old right-hander is 5-1 with a 1.78 ERA and has a 65-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He's always been a great talent, but it seems like he has finally put it all together and is an elite class now. He'll be facing a struggling Kansas City lineup today that has only averaged 2.7 runs over its last seven games. The Royals have been horrible all season with runners in scoring position and have missed out on tons of chances, which just goes along with being a young team sometimes.
The Pirates don't score very many runs either, but their offense has been producing of late. They've won four of their last five games and have averaged 5.4 runs over that stretch. They'll be going up against Kansas City right-hander Vin Mazzaro. Mazzaro wasn't supposed to be in the Royals rotation this season, but with injuries to Danny Duffy and Jonathan Sanchez, he was forced into action. He's pitched ok in his first two starts, but he only went five and six innings respectively, so the bullpen will likely be taxed a bit today. Mazzaro's biggest problem is that he doesn't strike many guys out and doesn't throw enough groundballs. That means a lot of balls are in the air, which is a dangerous proposition for any pitcher. The Royals are only 3-13 in their last 16 road interleague games. The Pirates, on the other hand, are 5-1 in their last six home interleague games. The combination of a red hot McDonald and a struggling Kansas City offense takes the pressure off the Pirates hitters. Pittsburgh won't have to score very many today and they should get an easy winner because of it. Take the Pirates as our Interleague Game. |
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06-09-12 | Toronto Blue Jays +125 v. Atlanta Braves | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 52 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #961 Toronto Blue Jays over Atlanta Braves (4:05pm ET) We have a nice matchup today between a team that I believe is underrated versus a team that I feel is overrated. The Toronto Blue Jays never get enough credit as they're buried in the difficult American League East where the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays and even Orioles get more press than they do. The Jays are 30-28 on the season, but clearly they are a lot better ballclub than that. If they were playing in another division, they'd likely be leading it or very close. It's not really fair, but they've just had to deal with the toughest teams in baseball in their division for years and for that reason have been flying under the radar. Today they send rookie Drew Hutchison to the mound. Hutchison has been solid in his nine starts this season going 5-2 with a 4.35 ERA against some tough competition. Not only does he have really good stuff, but his mental approach is far beyond his age and he is very well-composed on the mound. He'll go up against a good Braves lineup, but one that has been in a funk over the last several weeks. They also are without Chipper Jones and possibly Freddy Freeman today - two mainstays in the lineup.
The Atlanta Braves are 33-25 on the season but I don't think they can maintain that pace all year. They have decent hitting, but the lineup isn't overpowering. Their bullpen is mediocre this season and none of their starting pitchers are having that great of a season. Tommy Hanson pitches for Atlanta in this one and he's definitely having a bit of a down year. He's 6-4 with a 3.71 ERA, but his strikeouts are down and walks are up from last season. He doesn't have that dominating kind of stuff anymore after an injury last year, but is good enough to keep his team in the game. Today he'll face a tough Toronto lineup that features Jose Bautista, who is starting to heat up. In Interleague play, I always like getting a good American League team at a nice underdog price since the American League dominates every year. Today is one of those opportunities as I think the Jays are a better overall team than the Braves. |
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06-08-12 | Tampa Bay Rays +100 v. Miami Marlins | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #913 Tampa Bay Rays over Miami Marlins (7:10pm ET) It's the battle of Florida as the Miami Marlins host the Tampa Bay Rays tonight. Jeremy Hellickson of the Rays will face a Miami offense that was absolutely shut down in their last series against the Braves. Miami batted .172 in the series and were outscored 21-3 in the three games. The 25-year old right-hander is 4-2 with a 2.69 ERA on the season in his second full year with the Rays. There's definitely no sophomore slump for Hellickson as he's improved in every area of his game, including increasing his strikeout rate and decreasing his walks. This will be the first time Miami has seen Hellickson, which is going to make it a difficult spot for them today. In addition, Miami went 2-4 against Tampa Bay last season, and batted .159 while losing the last four meetings.
The Marlins will give the ball to Ricky Nolasco, who has surrendered 18 runs in 9 1/3 innings while losing his last three starts to the Rays. Nolasco isn't having a very good season in 2012 as his control has been spotty and he's turned in mediocre numbers as a result. He's given up at least three earned runs in each of his last five starts, and only one of them was a quality start. The Marlins are just 1-6 in Nolasco's last seven starts as a favorite. The Rays have dominated interleague play recently and are 13-6 in their last 19 games against the National League. The American League has continually shown that they are the superior league in interleague play and any time you can get an underdog price with a good American League squad you have to take a close look. I like the Rays in this one as they have a huge edge in the starting pitching department. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-08-12 | New York Mets v. New York Yankees -143 | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #908 New York Yankees over New York Mets (7:05pm ET) Interleague play is back again this season and the Mets and Yankees will square off in the first of three on Friday night in Yankee Stadium. This is an interesting game from several different angles. First off, both of these teams are in the thick of things in their respective divisions, which isn't always the case when these teams hook up in the Subway Series. The Mets are 32-26 and only 1.5 games out of first in the NL East and the Yankees are 31-25 and 0.5 games out of first in the AL East. As a result, this series will be even more intense as these rivals fight to keep pace with their division foes.
The even bigger story is that Johan Santana pitches for the Mets today in his first start since his 134-pitch no hitter last week. The Mets gave Santana six days of rest, but Santana has thrown back-to-back complete games now and he is off of shoulder surgery last season. As a result, we don't know how effective he will be today and how long he will be able to last. I would assume that the arm is going to be a little bit tired and a good Yankees lineup should be able to get to him. He'll probably only go five or six innings today, and that means that the Yankees will get to feast on the worst bullpen in baseball. The Mets relievers have a 5.38 ERA this season and have blown a multitude of games this year. Hiroki Kuroda starts for the Yankees in this one. He's been a bit disappointing this season, but has still managed a 3.82 ERA in his 11 starts. He's been on a nice roll lately and in this last three starts has a 2.21 ERA. The Mets offense has been a bit surprising this season, but I don't expect them to keep it up all year as they have the highest team batting average on balls in play. That means they're getting a bit luckier than most on some balls dropping in that usually don't, and that generally regresses towards the mean as the season progresses. Having to bat designated hitter also hurts the Mets a bit as well, as they're not as deep as the Yankees are. The Yankees have dominated interleague play recently going 21-8 against teams with winning records. The Mets are 2-5 in their last seven interleague games overall. The Mets are in trouble today with Santana's arm that probably won't go very deep into the game, and I like the Yankees at this price. |
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06-07-12 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Cincinnati Reds -167 | 5-4 | Loss | -167 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #960 Cincinnati Reds over Pittsburgh Pirates (7:10pm ET) It's hard to believe that the Pittsburgh Pirates are in second place in the National League Central and three games behind the first place Cincinnati Reds. The big question is can they sustain it. A closer look at the numbers emphatically says no. First things first, the Pirates are 28-27 on the season but are sporting a negative run differential of -23 runs on the season. They're 15-10 in one run games, which accounts for a big part of the discrepancy, and you can't expect them to continue to win those games at a 60% clip. They also have the worst offense in the major leagues by a large margin. Coming into today's game, the Pirates are averaging a mind-boggling 3.15 runs per game this season. Clearly, they've been relying on their pitching staff to get the job done and they have for the most part so far. However, it's going to be tough to rely on today's starter Kevin Correia. The 31-year old right-hander is 2-5 with a 4.19 ERA on the season and his strikeouts are all the way down to 3.1 per nine innings while his walk rate is 3.0. It's hard to stay in the major leagues with so few strikeouts, especially when you're issuing so many free passes. The Reds are a good enough hitting team and should give Correia plenty of trouble in this one.
Mike Leake gets the ball for the Reds today and he's been on a nice little roll. Over his last four starts, Leake has a 2.19 ERA and a 28-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The Reds won all four of those games. Leake had some control issues earlier on in the season, but he's seemed to iron them all out and is pitching with lots of confidence. The Pirates have been one of the worst road teams in baseball over the last few years and I like Leake's chances to shut them down again today. And if Leake can hold the Pirates down until the late innings, the Reds have the best reliever in baseball right now in Aroldis Chapman. Chapman has still yet to allow an earned run in 28 innings this season, so it's safe to say that any lead is safe heading into the ninth inning. I have this game lined over -180, so we still get some good value despite a high line. Take Cincinnati today. |
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06-07-12 | Baltimore Orioles +133 v. Boston Red Sox | 0-7 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #971 Baltimore Orioles over Boston Red Sox (7:10pm ET) The Baltimore Orioles go for the sweep today in Boston against the Red Sox. The first place Orioles looked great in the first two games of this series, beating the BoSox 2-1 and 8-6. They've proved that they can beat you with their bats or with their pitching arms depending on the type of game it is. Today they will most likely rely on their bats as they go up the struggling Clay Buchholz of Boston. Buchholz has been a complete disaster this season with a 6.58 ERA and 1.73 WHIP, but has somehow managed a 5-2 record. His control has been all over the place and he's had six different starts where he has walked three batters or more so far. It's clear that he isn't 100% recovered from his lower back injury that ended his season last year. The Red Sox have been patient with him mostly because they don't have many other options, especially with Daniel Bard being demoted to the minors a few days ago. The Orioles have such a dangerous lineup and it's hard to imagine them not putting at least four or five runs on Buchholz in this one.
Brian Matusz is in charge of trying to shut down a good Red Sox lineup today. The 25-year southpaw has tons of talent but still hasn't been able to quite put it all together at his young age. He's shown flashes of it, and when's he on it's a beautiful thing to watch. Matusz is definitely improving as the season has gone on and is 2-1 with a 2.29 ERA and a 21-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his last three starts. He had a dominating performance against Boston two weeks when he allowed only one earned run in 6 1/3 innings while striking out nine batters. I think he'll give the Red Sox some more problems again today, but he doesn't have to be perfect as the Orioles should give him plenty of good run support. Baltimore has won seven of the last nine against Boston. This is a matchup of a first place team and a last place team, which before the season had started people would automatically have assumed to be the Red Sox in first and the Orioles in last. However, the tables have turned and the O's are the better ballclub now, so we'll gladly take them as a solid underdog today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-07-12 | New York (N): R Dickey -129 v. Washington: C Wang | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 2 h 57 m | Show | |
5-unit Play Take #951 New York Mets over Washington Nationals (1:05pm ET) You normally don't classify knuckleball pitchers as dominant, but in the case of R.A. Dickey you have to make an exception. The 27-year old right-hander is 8-1 with a 2.55 ERA and 1.06 on the season, which are great numbers. However, what he's done over his last three starts is even more amazing. Dickey is 3-0 with a 0.39 ERA and has struck out 30 batters while only walking one. It doesn't get any better than that and some of his success can be traced to his new variations of his knuckleball which includes a rising knuckleball that he's been working on. He was named the Player of the Week last week and deservingly so. The Washington Nationals haven't faced Dickey yet this season and that will be a big advantage for him as you don't see knuckleballers every day.
The Mets hitters should be licking their chops as Chien-Ming Wang starts for the Nationals today. Wang missed the first month of the season with an injury and it's going to take time for him to shake off the cobwebs and pitch at a normal level. His last outing was his first start of the year and he surrendered four earned runs in four innings in Miami. There are still questions as to whether or not Wang can be an effective major league pitcher and he hasn't made it through a full season since 2007 with the Yankees. The Mets have been hitting the ball well lately and they may get an extra boost today as Jason Bay was activated from the disabled list and is expected to be in the lineup today. The Mets have won Dickey's last six starts and they should make it seven given his current form. Take New York as our Game of the Week. |
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06-06-12 | Toronto Blue Jays -116 v. Chicago White Sox | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
10-unit Play Take #923 Toronto Blue Jays over Chicago White Sox (7:10pm ET) The Toronto Blue Jays look for back-to-back wins against the White Sox tonight in Chicago. The pitching matchup features veteran Brandon Morrow against rookie Jose Quintana. Morrow is having a breakthrough year for the Jays at 6-3 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. He's an extremely talented pitcher that has always been able to strike hitters out with his stuff but couldn't put it all together to be a complete pitcher. In fact, last year he led the American League with 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings, but his ERA was a whopping 4.72. This year he came in with a different mentality, focusing less on striking out hitters and more on being efficient. It's worked beautifully as is putting up the best numbers of his career. More importantly, he looks even more confident on the mound and is adjusting well to his new approach.
Jose Quintana wasn't supposed to be in the White Sox rotation but was called up after John Danks was injured. The 23-year old left-hander has pitched ok in his first two starts, but he only lasted into the fourth inning in his last start in Tampa Bay. It's clear that the White Sox are keeping a close eye on his pitch count and don't want to wear out the rookie or ruin his confidence. That means we should be seeing quite a bit of the bullpen today in Chicago, which should bode well for the Blue Jays. The White Sox bullpen has been getting the job done but they're very young and have had their moments this season. Toronto has the third best offense in the American League this season and I think they'll be able to get to the rookie southpaw early on and then move onto the bullpen arms thereafter. The White Sox have had an offensive surge lately, but a lot of those runs have been scored in US Cellular Field. The Cell has been very favorable for hitters again this season, which minimizes the actual production that Chicago has had. They also might be without Paul Konerko today, who was taken out of the lineup yesterday just before the game for an undisclosed reason. The Blue Jays have absolutely owned the White Sox in recent years, going 24-8 in the last 32 meetings. Today they own a huge advantage in the starting pitcher matchup and have the much better offense to go with it. I like the Jays at a very reasonable price today. |
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06-06-12 | Tampa Bay: A Cobb v. New York (A): I Nova -140 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #918 New York Yankees over Tampa Bay Rays (7:05pm ET) Two American League East rivals take the field today as the New York Yankees host the Tampa Bay Rays. The Yankees took the first game of the series last night 7-0 behind a dominating performance by Andy Pettitte. He shut down a Rays offense that has really been struggling of late. Over their last 20 games, the Rays have averaged only 4.1 runs per game, which is 13th in the American League over that span. Injuries have played a major part in Tampa Bay's woes - especially the loss of Evan Longoria. The team has managed to stay afloat with some good pitching, but I don't think they can keep it up for much longer.
Youngster Alex Cobb will be counted on today for the Rays. This will be the 24-year old's first trip to Yankee Stadium, which is a stressful environment for anyone. Cobb has put up decent numbers in his first three starts of the season with a 3.71 ERA. However, he has been known to have some issues with control at times. The Yankees are a very patient hitting team and will take free passes if they are given away so I expect him to find some trouble today. Ivan Nova pitches for the Yankees in today's matchup. Nova's surface stats aren't very good, but he's run into some bad luck with a .361 batting average against on balls in play. He's striking out 8.3 batters per nine innings and only walking 2.9. As long as he keeps that up, he'll put together a very solid season. The Yankees are also 21-6 in Nova's last 27 starts overall, and he's beaten the Rays the last five times he has faced them. The Yankees lineup should expose Cobb early on and Nova will be good enough to keep a struggling Rays' offense down. Take the Bronx Bombers this evening. |
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06-05-12 | Atlanta Braves v. Miami Marlins -130 | 11-0 | Loss | -130 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #958 Miami Marlins over Atlanta Braves (7:10pm ET) Today's matchup between the Miami Marlins and Atlanta Braves features two teams going in opposite directions. The Marlins are 23-9 in their last 32 games and have surged to a first place tie in the National League East. They're lineup has been hitting after a very slow start in April, they have been getting quality starts from the rotation and their bullpen has absolutely shut the door. With all of the new additions that this team made in the offseason, it took a little of time for the chemistry to form, but manager Ozzie Guillen has this team focused now. Anibal Sanchez has been Miami's most dependable starter this season and he'll get the ball today. With a 2.57 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and over a strikeout per inning pitched, Sanchez is definitely on track to be an All-Star in 2012. The 28-year old right-hander always had the talent but it seems like he's finally putting it all together this season. He's turned in a quality start in all but one of his 10 starts this season and looks to have finally found the consistency that eluded him for first few years of his career.
The Braves, on the other hand, have really scuffled of late dropping nine of their last 12 games overall. Their bats have gone quiet after a hot start and that can be blamed partially on a handful of injuries that they have suffered. However, I'm not sure that this Braves lineup is quite as good as advertised. They have pretty good balance throughout the lineup, but they don't have that one guy that scares you and that can carry the team on his back when they're down. Veteran Tim Hudson makes the start today for Atlanta. Hudson is getting up there in age at 36 years old, and it's starting to show a bit. He's 3-2 with a 4.60 ERA this season and his strikeout rate has declined quite a bit from his career average. The betting market looks to be valuing Hudson like him old self and I'm not buying it. The Marlins are a solid 16-10 at home this season and I think they get the job done today in the first game of the three-game series. They're in much better form right now than the Braves and have the much better starting pitcher at this stage in their respective careers. The price is very reasonable given the circumstances, so take the Marlins here. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-04-12 | St.Louis Cardinals v. New York Mets -102 | 5-4 | Loss | -102 | 1 h 21 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #902 New York Mets over St. Louis Cardinals (1:10pm ET) The New York Mets look to complete the four-game sweep of the St. Louis Cardinals this afternoon in Citi Field. This series has been absolutely ugly for the Cardinals as they were no-hit by Johan Santana, shut out by R.A. Dickey and held to only one run against Jon Niese so far. One of the big problems for the Cardinals right now is that they aren't healthy. Lance Berkman has been on the disabled list for a while and they are also without John Jay, Skip Schumaker and Matt Carpenter. Carlos Beltran and David Freese have also missed some time due to injuries recently, but they are back now. The Cardinals are fairly deep, but it's tough to produce when you have so many guys out on a day-to-day basis. It makes it tough to stay consistent and clearly it's thrown the Cardinals off their game. Today they'll try to salvage the series against another tough pitcher for the Mets - Dillon Gee. Gee has been on a roll over his last three starts going 2-0 with a 2.66 ERA and a 20-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Overall Gee has looked like a much better pitcher this season as he's striking out about 30% more batters than he did last year and has cut his walks by 40%. He also has increased his groundball rate, which has helped get him out of some tough jams this season.
The Cardinals are reeling at 7-16 in their last 23 games. As we mentioned above, injuries have been a huge part of it, but the games must go on. The marketplace is still giving St. Louis a little bit too much credit based on their hot start to the season and the Mets should be the clear favorite today. Kyle Lohse gets the ball for the Cardinals and he's having his typical season. He's a quality pitcher that usually keeps his team in the game but he doesn't overpower anyone and you can get to him if you're swinging the bats well. Over their last 10 games, the Mets offense has certainly fit that bill as they're averaging 5.7 runs per game. The Mets are also 25-9 in their last 34 games versus a right-handed starter and I think they keep the momentum going to complete the four-game sweep today. Take the Mets at a very low price today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-03-12 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. Colorado Rockies -120 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #962 Colorado Rockies (-120) over Los Angeles Dodgers (3:10pm ET) The Colorado Rockies host the Los Angeles Dodgers in the rubber game of the series this afternoon. Balls have been flying out of Coors Field lately and today's starters will be under pressure from the get go. The last six games in Colorado have yielded 87 runs, for an average of 14.5 runs per contest. I think today's game will be determined by which pitcher can avoid the home run ball and one pitcher has a distinct advantage over the other in that department. Alex White of the Rockies has been a groundball machine this season with a groundball rate of over 54%. He also has kept his walks down to 2.2 per nine innings. Lots of groundballs and few walks is a perfect combination in Coors Field and makes him a great fit for the Rockies rotation. That's in stark contrast to the type of pitcher that Nathan Eovaldi is for the Dodgers. Eovaldi is a fly ball pitcher and that suits him well in Dodgers Stadium, but will be a problem today. This will be the first start in Coors Field for the 22-year old rookie, and he will quickly learn why it has the reputation that it does.
The Dodgers offense is missing some significant pieces from the lineup as Matt Kemp is on disabled list along with Juan Rivera, Mark Ellis and Juan Uribe. That's four starters out today in a game where they're going to need to put up big runs to win. The Rockies are without their leader Troy Tulowitzki but everyone else is healthy and Colorado has been absolutely ripping the ball. Over their last six games, the Rockies have average 9.2 runs per game. Take the Rockies today at a good price at home. |
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06-03-12 | Pittsburgh Pirates +107 v. Milwaukee Brewers | 6-5 | Win | 107 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #959 Pittsburgh Pirates (+105) over Milwaukee Brewers (2:10pm ET) We're going to keep this one brief as there isn't much explanation needed besides the fact that James McDonald is on the mound and he has been tabbed as an underdog by the bookmakers. Cleary they haven't been watching him lately. McDonald is 4-2 with a 2.20 ERA and 0.96 WHIP on the season, and he's been even better in his last five starts. McDonald has 39 strikeouts and only eight walks in his last five outings, which has led to a sensational 1.54 ERA over that span. The Pirates obviously don't score very many runs, but they won't need to score many today to get a win. The Brewers come in at 24-29 on the season, a few games back of the Pirates. They've had problems with starting pitching and with the bullpen this season and those aren't just going away. It's hard to imagine why they're the favorites in this matchup, but we'll take advantage and ride the red hot pitcher for the Pirates.
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06-03-12 | Atlanta Braves v. Washington Nationals -136 | 3-2 | Loss | -136 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #902 Washington Nationals (-135) over Atlanta Braves (1:35pm ET) As we close in on the one-third mark of the 2012 season, it's clear that the Washington Nationals are real contenders in the National League. At 30-21, they are leading the NL East and have arguably the best starting rotation in the league. One of those members in the rotation is Gio Gonzalez. After coming over from the Oakland A's in the offseason, Gonzalez has dominated NL hitters to the tune of 7-1 with a 2.04 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. He's also striking out 11.5 batters per nine innings, which is tops in the league, and has cut back his walks. You couldn't ask for anything more if you're a Nationals fan and it looks like Gio is just entering his prime. The Nats will also get a nice boost as Mike Morse came off of the disabled list yesterday after missing the first two months. He was immediately inserted into the cleanup spot and should have a dramatic impact on the lineup since he was their best overall producer last season.
The Atlanta Braves have been in a downward spiral losing nine of their last 11 outings. The offense has slowed significantly since a hot start to the season. They were shut down by Stephen Strasburg yesterday and today won't be any easier as they go up against a tough left-hander in Gonzalez with a heavy left-handed lineup. They also might be without Brian McCann today who is scheduled for a day off to rest. The Braves send Tommy Hanson to the bump today. Hanson has not been sharp this season by his standards as he comes in with a 5-4 mark and 3.84 ERA. His strikeout numbers are down and his walks are up from last season. He had some mechanical issues in the spring that he was working through after his injury last year, so that could still be having an effect on his results. Either way, this isn't the dominating Hanson that we're used to seeing. The Nationals are a stellar 16-8 at home this season and Washington has won six straight between these clubs, including a sweep in Atlanta last week. I think this line should be closer to the -150 range, so we get some good value on the home team today. |
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06-03-12 | Boston: D Bard v. Toronto: D Hutchisn -107 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #970 Toronto Blue Jays (-110) over Boston Red Sox (1:05pm ET) Today's matchup between the Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays features one pitcher that has been extremely disappointing this season and another one who has been a pleasant surprise. Moving Daniel Bard from the bullpen into the starting rotation was supposed to be a no-brainer decision. However, nine games into his new role as a starter has everyone questioning whether or not Bard can cut it as a starting pitcher in the major leagues. Bard is 5-5 with a 4.56 ERA and 1.54 in 2012, but the biggest problem has been his control. He is walking 5.2 batters per nine innings and has pitched himself into far too many jams. The pressure has to be mounting for Bard as he knows that the next start he makes could end up being his last if he doesn't improve.
The Blue Jays' Drew Hutchison wasn't supposed to be in the starting rotation in 2012 - it just worked out that way. An injury to Dustin McGowan forced Toronto's hand in bringing up Hutchison, and the rookie has responded in a big way. The 21-year old right-hander is 4-2 on the season and is coming off his best performance of the season. He pitched seven scoreless innings in his last start against Baltimore while striking out nine batters. He seems to be getting more and more comfortable in each start and I expect him to respond well again at home today. The Jays have won seven of their last 10 at home and they have a good enough lineup to give Bard trouble today. Take the Jays at a very reasonable price. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-02-12 | Minnesota Twins v. Cleveland Indians -135 | 7-4 | Loss | -135 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #928 Cleveland Indians over Minnesota Twins (7:15pm ET) The Cleveland Indians host the Minnesota Twins this evening in the second game of the series. The Indians crushed the Twins yesterday 7-1 and today's pitching matchup is even more favorable. Josh Tomlin goes for the Tribe and he's had a decent season despite a 4.99 ERA. He has increased his strikeouts over 40% from his career levels and is getting even more groundball outs than he did before. His ERA will undoubtedly shrink as the season goes along as Tomlin has been throwing well and is gaining confidence. The Indians have also been swinging the bats well lately averaging 5.5 runs per game over their last six ballgames. They are dealing with some injuries right now but have a fairly deep bench and guys have stepped up and delivered.
The Twins send youngster P.J. Walters to the hill tonight. Walters is 27-years old and this is the first time that he's been given a real chance to stay in a rotation in his career. His age is telling as he definitely would have had an opportunity at a younger age had he shown more in the minors. However, the Twins are desperate and have been bringing up some of their young pitchers because of injuries. I like going against young pitchers on the road as they are usually a bit more nervous and can crumble under the pressure. The Twins lineup has been improving but is still abysmal and ranked 13th in the American League. The Twins are 16-36 in their last 52 road games and the Indians are 15-6 in Tomlin's last 21 home starts. It's hard to figure out why the line on this game is so low when Cleveland has the better starting pitcher, better offense and better bullpen. We'll take full advantage and play Cleveland tonight. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-02-12 | Boston: F Doubront -115 v. Toronto: K Drabek | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 35 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #917 Boston Red Sox (-110) over Toronto Blue Jays (1:05pm ET) I haven't been a big supporter of the Boston Red Sox this season, but they have a good opportunity today against the Toronto Blue Jays. The Red Sox go with starter Felix Doubront, who has easily been their most consistent pitcher this season. He's 5-2 with a 3.86 ERA in his 10 starts this season. More impressively, he's striking out 9.5 batters per nine innings and looks to be getting more confident in each start. He earned a spot in the rotation this spring and many thought he'd be the biggest question mark in the rotation, but it's been the complete opposite as he's been the most dependable arm the Red Sox have. Boston has clawed its way above .500 after a miserable start to the season mostly because of their excellent hitting. The Red Sox are 2nd in the American League in runs scored and that is despite several key injuries that they've experienced this season. It just goes to show you how much depth Boston has in its organization.
Kyle Drabek of the Blue Jays has received quite a bit of respect in the betting marketplace despite some poor numbers this season. It seems like everyone is rating him based on his potential, when in fact he isn't even close to realizing it. Young pitchers take time to develop, but the fact of the matter is that Drabek is currently 4-5 with a 4.55 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. He was rocked in his last start in Texas giving up nine earned runs in three innings of work. The Blue Jays can't afford for Drabek to be pulled early again as they have the second worst bullpen in the league. And with the way the Red Sox have hit lately, the Jays may be in for some trouble. I like Boston in this one as Doubront is light years ahead of Drabek, the Red Sox swing the bats better and they have the better bullpen. |
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06-01-12 | Oakland A's v. Kansas City Royals -147 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
9-unit Play Take #976 Kansas City Royals over Oakland A's (8:10pm ET) The Kansas City Royals host the Oakland A's tonight in the first of a three-game weekend series. The A's had a very good start to the 2012 season as they were 22-21 after their first 43 games. It was clear based on the numbers that the A's were overachieving, and they have dropped eight straight games since. The biggest problem for Oakland is the lack of production from the lineup. The A's are averaging only 3.2 runs per game, dead last in the American League. They've scored a total of 12 runs during their eight game skid and have been shutout three of those times. It won't get any easier for them today as they go up against a red hot pitcher for the Royals in Felipe Paulino. Paulino comes in with a 2.03 ERA on the season and is striking out 9.9 batters per nine innings. He is one of those pitchers that gets hot and cold, but he's definitely on fire right now making him a great play.
The Royals offense is very underrated as they are ranked 8th in OPS in the league, but have only scored the 11th most runs. Basically that means that they've been unlucky in situations with runners in scoring position or with two outs and runners on. That generally evens out over the course of a long season so we should see some improvement. They've scored 27 runs over their last five games (5.4 runs per game), so they're clearly already showing some signs. They get to face the 39-year old Bartolo Colon today. Colon has been bad over his last four starts with a 8.55 ERA and only two strikeouts in 20 innings. Colon has the reputation of not giving 100% effort if things aren't going well, so there's a good chance he doesn't break out of this slump right away with the A's struggling. The Royals have won four of their last five overall and I think they make it five out of six today against an A's team that looks helpless right now. Take Kansas City here as our MLB Game of the Day. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-31-12 | Detroit Tigers +130 v. Boston Red Sox | 7-3 | Win | 130 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #905 Detroit Tigers over Boston Red Sox (7:10pm ET) The Detroit Tigers look to salvage a game in the four-game set against the Boston Red Sox that wraps up tonight. The Red Sox have won the last three behind some timely hitting but the games have been close. They have the right guy going tonight to do it in Max Scherzer. Scherzer has thrown back-to-back dominating performances to earn wins in each of his last two outings. He has a ridiculous 24 strikeouts and only one walk in those two starts. His recent success can be attributed to some mechanical changes he's made since working with Detroit pitching coach Jeff Jones. Scherzer has a 5.67 ERA in 2012, which is why the Tigers have been marked as a decent sized underdog here tonight, but he's a much better pitcher right now than he was earlier in the season when he was blasted in a couple of starts.
Josh Beckett has also been clearly off his game this season and I don't like him being favored this big against a quality arm like Scherzer. Beckett wasn't close to beating Detroit on April 7, getting tagged for a career high-tying five homers - two apiece from Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera - in a 10-0 loss. Scherzer is in better form right now and the Tigers have better bullpen arms behind him than the Red Sox do. The Red Sox are really banged up and can now add Dustin Pedroia to the list of the walking wounded. They are without their entire starting outfield currently, but the loss of Pedroia is a huge one as he's the glue that keeps this team together. I had the line on this game about 20 cents lower, so we receive some good value on the underdog in a game that is very evenly matched. Take Detroit in this one. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-30-12 | New York (A): I Nova -102 v. LA Anaheim: E Santana | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
10-unit Play Take #979 New York Yankees over Los Angeles Angels (10:05pm ET) The Los Angeles Angels host the New York Yankees looking for the series sweep today. The Angels have won eight straight games and their offense has finally started to wake up. However, momentum is not as crucial in baseball as it is in other sports and I think the Angels are getting a little too much credit right now. They're still only 26-25 on the season and way behind the pace in the difficult American League. The Yankees have underachieved as well at 26-23, but they don't have as many question marks as the Angels do and today they have the better starting pitcher going. Ivan Nova is probably one of the most underrated pitchers in the league even though he comes in with a 5.46 ERA in nine starts this season. Nova has an extremely high .369 average on balls in play that will surely come down and he's striking out a batter per inning. He also has good control and doesn't get into trouble walking many batters. Based on his skill set and peripheral statistics, Nova should have an ERA in the 3's so we'll take advantage of some favorable lines in the meantime. The Yankees also provide plenty of run support for Nova evidenced by his 5-2 mark in 2012 despite the high ERA.
Ervin Santana throws for Los Angeles today and he hasn't quite been himself this season. He's walking more batters than he ever has in his entire career and issued seven free passes in his last start in Seattle in only five innings of work. There could be a mechanical issue going on with Santana or just a confidence type of thing. Either way, the Yankees are one of the most patient teams in the American League and they will definitely make him throw strikes. I'm just not sure he can do that, and it's going to put more pressure on the mediocre Angels offense. Despite some good hitting lately, the Angels are still ranked 10th in the league in offense and have some holes in the lineup. They also have questions remaining in the bullpen, which should come into play today with Santana pitching. Overall, the Yankees are just in a different class than the Angels. They have the better offense, better starter today and the better bullpen. New York is also 20-6 in Nova's last 26 starts overall. I love the fact that we get them as an underdog tonight. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-29-12 | Detroit Tigers -154 v. Boston Red Sox | 3-6 | Loss | -154 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
8-unit Play Take #921 Detroit Tigers over Boston Red Sox (7:10pm ET) Large favorites on the road usually aren't a smart way to make money, but today's game is an exception as we see lots of value in the Detroit Tigers today. Justin Verlander goes today for the Tigers. Coming off a Cy Young and MVP year in 2011, everyone expected there would be some regression in his performance since he put up unbelievable numbers across the board. Well, everyone was wrong as his numbers this season are even better so far. Verlander has lowered his ERA to 2.15 and is walking fewer batters than he did last season. He nearly pitched a no-hitter two starts ago and can't be throwing the ball any better than he is currently. On the other side of the coin, Red Sox starter Daniel Bard has struggled with his control all season long as is pitching much worse than expected after moving into the rotation this season. At 4-5 with a 4.69 ERA and 1.56 WHIP, Bard is in jeopardy of losing his spot in the rotation. He is walking more batters than he strikes out and has seemingly lost his confidence over his last few starts. In his last four starts, Bard has a 6.94 ERA and has walked 17 batters while only striking out eight.
We probably couldn't find a pitching matchup with two pitchers on the complete opposite end of the spectrum like we have today. The Red Sox can still hit, something that the Tigers are still searching for, but Boston is missing their entire outfield and is counting on some guys that might not be big league ready. Detroit won't need to put too many on the board today with Verlander going and Bard will definitely give away a couple of freebies. This is a big price today, but well warranted for a play on Detroit. |
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05-28-12 | Kansas City: N Adcock +130 v. Cleveland: J Tomlin | 5-8 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 17 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #975 Kansas City Royals over Cleveland Indians (4:05pm ET) Today's game between the Kansas City Royals and Cleveland Indians features a nice angle that I always like to take a look at when handicapping a game. Josh Tomlin of the Indians makes his first start off of the disabled list which he was placed on because of a wrist injury. Generally speaking, the first start back from an injury isn't as productive for a starting pitcher and it is usually cut a bit shorter by the manager to avoid any further complications. That bodes well for the Royals as we still don't know if Tomlin is 100% and the Cleveland bullpen has really struggled this year with a 4.29 ERA, which is 12th in the American League. The Indians also come into this game as a bit of a mash unit without Carlos Santana, Travis Hafner, Grady Sizemore and possibly Asdrubal Cabrera. That's four of Cleveland's top hitters and will no question affect their results offensively.
The Royals have been a solid team on the road in 2012 so far registering a 14-10 mark. They are fresh off a nice series win against the red hot Baltimore Orioles and now head into Cleveland to face an Indians team that was just swept by the White Sox. The Royals go with youngster Nathan Adcock today, and he's looked pretty sharp so far. He has a 2.33 ERA in 19 1/3 innings pitched this season between starting and relief. He'll get a break today with Cleveland's injuries and I like his chances to go deep into this one. The Royals bullpen has also been pretty good with a 3.28 ERA and is much more reliable than the Indians. Take the Royals today as the price on this is just too high. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-28-12 | Chicago White Sox +102 v. Tampa Bay Rays | 2-1 | Win | 102 | 5 h 26 m | Show | |
10-unit Play Take #973 Chicago White Sox over Tampa Bay Rays (3:10pm ET) Two talented young southpaws take the hill for this afternoon's game between the Chicago White Sox and Tampa Bay Rays. One southpaw has started to realize some of his potential early on while the other one is still trying to find his groove in the major leagues. Chris Sale was placed into the rotation this season after excelling a bullpen role last season and he has lived up to all of the expectations plus some so far. Sale is 5-2 with a 2.50 ERA and 1.05 WHIP and is an intimidating force on the mound. He has a similar pitching style to Randy Johnson and has some pretty nasty stuff that hitters are still trying to catch up with. Matt Moore, on the other hand, had many more expectations than Sale but hasn't been able to match the hype so far. Moore has been pretty wild in his nine starts this year and is 1-4 with a 5.07 as a result. He walks nearly five batters per every nine innings and just hasn't pitched like most people thought he would. However, let's remember that he's only 22 years old and has a lot to learn at the big league level still. I think the game is being priced with his potential and not his actual results, as Sale is much further along in his development than Moore is at this point.
The Tampa Bay offense has been more productive than Chicago's this year, but they have several key players on the disabled list. Evan Longoria, Desmond Jennings and Jeff Keppinger are injured as well as several reserve players. With the current lineups for today's game, I'd say that these offenses are fairly evenly matched. With the much better starting pitcher going, I think the White Sox should be favored in this one so we'll grab some value with them in this game. |
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05-26-12 | Colorado Rockies v. Cincinnati Reds -144 | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
5-unit Play Take #962 Cincinnati Reds over Colorado Rockies (7:15pm ET) The Cincinnati Reds are on a roll after a slow start to the season. They've won six of their last seven games and are now alone atop the National League Central division at 25-20. All areas of the team are clicking right now as the starters are going deep into the games, the bullpen is maintaining the lead and the hitters are getting timely hits. This is what Reds fans envisioned before the season began and I believe that this is the Reds team that you're going to see for the rest of the season. Mike Leake takes the mound for the Reds today. Leake got off to a rough start and is 1-5 with a 5.32 ERA on the season. However, he's looked really good in his last two starts yielding only two earned runs in 14 innings against the Braves and the Mets. He has good stuff and still has a 2-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, so I think he'll be able to right the ship in the long-term. The Reds are scoring runs right and the bullpen is lights out, so all Leake has to do is pitch an average game and Cincinnati has a great shot to win. The Reds also made the decision to put Aroldis Chapman into the closer's role last week. He hasn't given up an earned run all season long, so it's fairly safe to say that if the Reds are leading after eight innings, they'll be ok.
The Colorado Rockies are an abysmal baseball team on the road. At 7-13 in their first 20 games, only two teams have a worse record away from home in all of baseball. It's always been that way for the Rockies so this shouldn't be much of a surprise. As a team, they are batting only .222 on the road with a .285 on-base percentage. They'll look to Jeremy Guthrie today on the mound, which hasn't been working out well lately. Guthrie came over from the Orioles in trade for Jason Hammel that now makes the Rockies look like fools. Hammel is pitching great and Guthrie has an absurd 5.55 ERA so far in 2012. Part of the reason that Guthrie is struggling is because he's been pounded in Coors Field, but it's obviously a lot more than just that because his strikeouts are down over 40% from last year and his walks are up over 40%. It could be something mechanical or maybe he is nursing an injury that hasn't been reported yet. Either way, he's not right and is someone to take a strong look at fading. The Rockies are 17-41 in their last 58 games versus a team with a winning record dating back to last season. That's pathetic and with a struggling pitcher on the mound today, it's hard to figure out how they can make a game of this one. Take the red hot Reds today as our Game of the Day. |
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05-26-12 | Kansas City: F Paulino +115 v. Baltimore: W Chen | 4-3 | Win | 115 | 6 h 35 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #973 Kansas City Royals over Baltimore Orioles (4:05pm ET) Every once in a while you can catch a red hot pitcher on a roll and throw most of the other handicapping out the window. Felipe Paulino is that pitcher and the minute we saw him as an underdog today, we knew there was value. Paulino has been simply amazing since returning from an elbow injury a few weeks ago. Over his first four starts, Paulino is 2-1 with a 1.42 ERA and is striking out 10.4 batters per nine innings. And he hasn't exactly faced chopped liver in those starts going up against the Yankees twice, the Orioles and the White Sox. He blew away the Orioles in Kansas City 10 days ago going seven innings without allowing a run while striking out nine. Paulino has always been labeled as a talented pitcher with tons of potential, but it appears that he finally might be putting it all together and realizing some of that potential.
As we have said recently, this Orioles team is a bit overrated at this point and we're looking to play against them when the opportunity is there. Their run differential of +20 signals a team that should be just a few games over .500 instead of their 29-17 mark. They'll send Wei-Yin Chen to the mound today for his ninth start of the season. This is Chen's first season in the big leagues as he previously pitched in Taiwan. He has some very deceptive stuff, but that generally doesn't last long in the United States once the book is out on you. He started the season with four great starts and a 2.31 ERA, but in his last four starts his ERA is 4.50 as the hitters finally have some tape to watch. He'll need to make some adjustments if he wants to succeed here, so now is a great time to be on the other side of him. The Royals have been road warriors this season with a 12-10 mark away from home. Take Kansas City as an underdog today with a dominant Paulino on the mound against an overrated Baltimore team featuring a struggling starter in Chen. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-25-12 | New York (A): I Nova -142 v. Oakland: T Ross | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #927 New York Yankees over Oakland A's (10:05pm ET) Have the New York Yankees lost their touch? At 23-21 on the season and in fourth place in the American League East , many fans in New York are questioning if this teams has what it takes to make the playoffs. However, consider this - the Yankees lost starter Michael Pineda before the season, haven't had outfielder Brett Gardner for most of the season, are without the greatest relief pitcher of all time in Mariano Rivera and his replacement in David Robertson, they have received almost zero production from Mark Teixeira so far. Amidst all of that, they are still above the .500 mark and are only 4.5 games behind the first place Orioles. It's hard to imagine things getting too much worse, so I think the Yankees are worth backing in the meantime. Today they send underrated Ivan Nova to the mound. Nova is 4-2 with a 5.69 ERA, but has been extremely lucky on batted balls in play giving up a hit over 39% of the time. That will regress and Nova's ERA will settle down in the low 4's before you know it. He has been lucky to get good run support, however, and if that continues it could be clear sailing for Nova today.
The A's aren't quite as good as their 22-23 mark would indicate. They have a -20 run differential of the season and they still have some gaping holes in their lineup - especially with Yoenis Cespedes still out with a hand injury. Manny Ramirez comes back next week, but I'm not sure how much he will help them either. The A's rely heavily on their pitching staff, primarily the bullpen. They may need some extra help from the pen today as Tyson Ross is pitching and he's been very inconsistent this season. The A's are 1-4 in Ross's last five starts and the Yankees have won 10 of the last 11 in Oakland overall. That's not a good combination and I think the Yankees cruise to an easy winner tonight on the West Coast. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-25-12 | Washington Nationals +146 v. Atlanta Braves | 7-4 | Win | 146 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #909 Washington Nationals over Atlanta Braves (7:35pm ET) The Washington Nationals head into Atlanta to take on the Braves in the first game of a three-game weekend series. This is an important series as the Nationals lead the National League East by one game over Atlanta currently. The Braves come into today's game after getting swept in a four game series in Cincinnati versus the Reds. The Braves only scored a total of eight runs in that series and have had problems getting many baserunners lately. Part of the problem is that Chipper Jones and Brian McCann have been out of the lineup and they both are still questionable for today's game. It won't get too much easier for them today as they face left-hander Ross Detwiler. Detwiler is 3-3 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.20 WHIP on the season and has solidified a spot in the Washington rotation. The Braves lineup features a lot of lefties, so it will be even tougher for them to break out of their slump against a southpaw today.
The Nationals will be facing Tim Hudson tonight. Hudson is making his sixth start of the season as he missed the first month with a herniated disc injury. His numbers are typical of his usual results so far, but he'll need to be extra sharp tonight with the offense struggling behind him. The Nationals bats have come alive over the last 13 games as they've average 4.4 runs per game. That doesn't sound like a lot, but it is considering they were averaging a full run less than that to start the season. The arrival of Bryce Harper has certainly helped along with a healthy Ryan Zimmerman at third base. The Nationals had a day off yesterday which should help them in the middle of this tough road trip. Washington has endured a lot this season, but they are a resilient bunch and still find themselves as the second best team in the National League. I think they'll find a way to get a win today as a nice underdog as well. |
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05-25-12 | Kansas City: B Chen +115 v. Baltimore: J Hammel | 2-8 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 31 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #917 Kansas City Royals over Baltimore Orioles (7:05pm ET) The Baltimore Orioles are no longer sneaking up on anyone. With a 28-17 record that is tops in the American League, all of baseball is on notice that these guys can play. Now that Orioles have a bull's eye on their backs, the pressure will be turned up a notch. Baseball is a streaky sport and sometimes you have to know when to ride a team and when to jump off. They haven't faltered much yet, but I think it may be time to jump off the Orioles before they come back down to earth a little bit. Baltimore's best pitcher Jason Hammel takes the ball today, but is a definite warning sign for him. He's had a problem with his knee that has been lingering for the last couple of weeks. He had a minor knee procedure done recently and got it drained on Monday, but it's something that he said he's going to have to deal with for some time. That's not good news for the Orioles as he's put up some great numbers to the start the season. However, it's unfair to expect him to be at his best today and that gives an advantage to the Royals hitters.
Kansas City left-hander Bruce Chen toes the rubber for the Royals today. The 34-year old veteran is putting together a solid season and almost always keeps his team in the game. Over his last three starts, Chen is 3-0 with a 2.75 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. He has a 16-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio over those starts and has definitely found a nice groove. The Orioles offense has been solid all season long but they're a little big banged up right now and some of their regulars are starting to cool off a bit. The Royals have an edge over Baltimore in a lot of undervalued areas such speed, defense and the bench and those definitely count for something and usually aren't factored into the line. I think the Royals are an undervalued team overall and are better than their 17-26 record. The Orioles bandwagon will be slowing down and I think know is a good time to jump off and look the other way. |
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05-24-12 | Atlanta Braves v. Cincinnati Reds -115 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #954 Cincinnati Reds over Atlanta Braves (7:10pm ET) The Cincinnati Reds look to complete the four-game sweep against the Atlanta Braves tonight. We cashed a ticket on them yesterday and like them again today for a lot of the same reasons. They're built like a winning ballclub with good starting pitching, a great bullpen and some really good hitters in the middle of the lineup. Today's starter is right-hander Homer Bailey. The 26-year old is coming off of back-to-back impressive starts as he got a win in the Bronx against the Yankees and shut down the Braves in Atlanta. Over those two starts his ERA is 2.77 and he has a 10-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio - not bad numbers against two high-powered offenses. Bailey is still building confidence at his relatively young age and those were two big confidence builders. Today he faces the Braves again, but he might catch a break as Chipper Jones is out and Brian McCann is still nursing the flu. The Braves have also been struggling to score runs of late averaging only 2.25 runs per game over their last five contests.
The Reds will face rookie Randall Delgado in this one. The 22-year old right-hander has had decent results in his first year in the big leagues so far, but his biggest problem has been his control. He's walking 4.7 batters per nine innings and that will lead to trouble unless he can bring that down or induce more groundballs than he is currently. Delgado faced the Reds 10 days ago and pitched well, but that was their first time seeing him so the hitters should be better prepared this time around. The Reds are also 16-7 in their last 23 games against right-handed pitchers. The Reds go for their seventh straight victory tonight and I think they get the job done. |
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05-24-12 | San Francisco Giants v. Miami Marlins -154 | 14-7 | Loss | -154 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #956 Miami Marlins over San Francisco Giants (7:10pm ET) Anibal Sanchez has been one of the best pitchers in the National League this season and today he'll look to get the Marlins a bounce back win over the San Francisco Giants. He has a 2.32 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and is striking out over a batter an inning. He's easily been one of the top five pitchers in the National League this season but has still flown under the radar a bit which provides us with a good opportunity today. Sanchez only has a 2-2 record on the season because the Marlins bats were asleep for the first few weeks of the season. However, they've turned it around lately and have averaged 4.7 runs per game in their last 19 contests. There was a lot of player movement for this team in the offseason, in addition to a brand new manager in Ozzie Guillen, and I think it just took a while for things to click in Miami. Overall, the Marlins are an outstanding 16-6 in their last 22 games and are clearly one of the hottest teams in baseball.
Things haven't been going quite as well for the Giants who have come out of the gate at 23-21 when expectations were very high on this team. They have sustained a few big injuries, including Brian Wilson and Pablo Sandoval, but this team has still underachieved for a variety reasons. One of the problems is that their starting pitching just hasn't been quite as good as it was last year. Today's starter Ryan Vogelsong appears as if he's having a better season than last year but that's not the case. His ERA is low at 2.27 but it's only a matter of time before it climbs much higher. Vogelsong is walking more batters that last season, striking out less and has been lucky on batted balls in play. Based on all of his peripheral data his ERA should be over 4.00, so we expect to see it closer to that number when it's all said and done. The Giants offense also doesn't help much as they're in the bottom half of the league and the injury to Sandoval makes things even worse. The Marlins are playing great baseball right now and a have a red hot pitcher on the mound at home. The price is a tad higher than what I'm generally comfortable with, but everything lines up in this game and we still have good value on Miami. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-23-12 | Atlanta Braves v. Cincinnati Reds +105 | 1-2 | Win | 105 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #908 Cincinnati Reds over Atlanta Braves (7:10pm ET) The Cincinnati Reds look to sweep the Atlanta Braves tonight after winning the first two of the series on Monday and Tuesday. The Reds have quietly managed a 23-19 record this season, good enough for second place in the National League Central only a half game behind the Cardinals. The Reds don't win baseball games by dominating in any particular area, but instead they have a solid starting staff, good bullpen and good offense. Today's starter fits into that category as he's been as solid as they come so far in 2012. Bronson Arroyo is 35-years old but he's seemed to have found a fountain of youth with a 3.46 ERA in his first eight starts. He's also increased his strikeout rate nearly 25% from last season and cut his walks by half. He's pitching smarter at his older age and keeps hitters off balance, which has kept his team in every ballgame he has pitched. He faces a tough Braves lineup today but they've struggled recently with only eight runs in their last four contests. They also might be without Chipper Jones and Brian McCann in this one as both are listed as questionable today.
The Braves Tommy Hanson pitches his 10th starts of the season today. Hanson has been a different pitcher than he as in the past and is definitely not as sharp. After injuries plagued him last year, he had to change his mechanics a bit and he's sacrificed some effectiveness in the process. His strikeouts have dropped from last year and his walks have increased, but he is still managing a respectable 3.31 ERA. He has been a little bit lucky however, as he hasn't yielded very many home runs on his fly balls. Once that rate normalizes, there's a good chance we'll see some regression in the ERA. He'll face a Reds offense that hasn't been producing as frequently as last season, but statistically speaking they have faced the second toughest group of pitchers this season, so that should turn around soon. The Reds are 15-7 in their last 22 games versus a right-hander, and the Reds have won five of the last six in the series between these two. Take the Reds in a nice spot as a home underdog today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-22-12 | Detroit Tigers +106 v. Cleveland Indians | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #969 Detroit Tigers over Cleveland Indians (7:05pm ET) Today's line on the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Indians definitely has me shaking my head a little bit. It's amazing that Ubaldo Jimenez of the Indians is still getting this much respect despite his horrendous start to the 2012 season. So far Jimenez has some of the worst pitching numbers in all of baseball with a 5.09 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in eight starts. He's also walking more batters than he strikes out on the season, which is an absolute recipe for disaster. Jimenez has had all sorts of problems with his mechanics ever since coming over to the Indians last year, which has affected him mentally and more importantly cut into this velocity on his fastball significantly. This is simply not the same pitcher that pitched for the Rockies, but the market somehow thinks that he's going to return to his old form as he's favored in this game.
Now when you look at Rick Porcello's numbers for the Tigers you might think he's been just as bad this season, but you'd be wrong. He does come in with a 5.12 ERA, but his WHIP is significantly lower at 1.40 and he actually has good peripheral statistics. Porcello's strikeout-to-walk ratio is at a career high at 3-1 and his velocity is way up from his previous seasons. He's given up an inordinate amount of home runs based on the number of fly balls he's served up, and that has artificially jacked up his ERA to an inflated level. There's no doubt in my mind that Porcello is at least a full run better than his current ERA and is a much better pitcher than Jimenez. Now the Tigers offense has underperformed this season, but they are still averaging more runs per game than the Indians are. And over their last six games, the Tigers have averaged 5.5 runs per game so there are signs that they're coming around. The Tigers has won 10 of the last 11 versus the Indians and they are 9-3 in Porcello's last 12 starts against them - two pretty strong trends. I have this line at about -120 for the Tigers so lots of value to be had on Detroit in this one. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-22-12 | New York Mets v. Pittsburgh Pirates -124 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -124 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #952 Pittsburgh Pirates over New York Mets (7:05pm ET) We were successful jumping on the Pirates yesterday in the first game of the this series, and tonight's matchup looks like an even better opportunity. Starting pitcher James McDonald goes for Pittsburgh and he's raised his game to a brand new level this season. The 27-year old right-hander owns a 2.68 ERA and 1.01 WHIP while increasing his strikeouts and reducing his walks to career best marks. One of the biggest problems for McDonald in the past was his confidence, but he seems to be extremely confident now especially over his last four starts. During that stretch McDonald has struck out 36 batters in 27 2/3 innings and has only walked seven. Two of those starts were on the road and he faced some decent opponents in those four games, so I don't consider it a fluke whatsoever. McDonald is also supported by a great bullpen that leads the National League in ERA at 2.48. The offense has obviously been the biggest problem for the Pirates but they do have some talented pieces and they can't perform any worse than they have so far.
As we discussed yesterday, the New York Mets are a little bit overrated at 22-20 on the season as their run differential is now at -32, which is worse than the Pirates. Their lineup is a mash unit right now and David Wright is single-handedly carrying the offense. If McDonald can focus on neutralizing Wright today, he should have no problems with the rest of the lineup. Knuckleballer R.A. Dickey opposes the Pirates in this one. He's having a solid season but he obviously doesn't dominate anyone with a knuckleball. He's had a rough time of it on the road this season with a 5.40 ERA away from New York. The Mets really need their starting pitchers to go deep into games due to their poor bullpen, and that puts extra pressure on them to perform. The Mets bullpen ERA is 5.11, which is dead last in the National League and no one can really be counted on. Pittsburgh is a solid home team at 11-8 this year and has always been a lot better in PNC Park than they have been on the road. With the way McDonald's pitching this season and with the #1 bullpen behind him, I don't think the Mets will get too many runs to cross the plate. If the Pirates can knock Dickey out relatively early and get into that Mets pen, they should take this game rather easily. That was the blueprint yesterday and they were successful. Take the Pirates as we look to cash a ticket on them two games in a row. |
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05-21-12 | New York (N): J Santana v. Pittsburgh: E Bedard -105 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #904 Pittsburgh Pirates over New York Mets (7:05pm ET) The Pittsburgh Pirates host the New York Mets in the first of a three-game series tonight in PNC Park. Left-hander Erik Bedard toes the rubber for the Pirates and he's quietly posted some really good numbers this season despite a poor 2-5 record. The veteran 33-year old has a 3.07 ERA and 3-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio so far in 2012. Bedard is extremely talented and has the ability to be one of the top pitchers in the game when he's healthy. He seems like he's close to 100% so I expect a great season from him despite the Pirates offense. While Pittsburgh is last the in the major leagues in runs scored, they have a few nice pieces in their lineup. Andrew McCutcheon is already a star and Neil Walker, Jose Tabata and Pedro Alvarez certainly have the potential to be really good players. The good thing about how badly the Pirates have hit so far is that they only have one way to go. The market is valuing them extremely low despite the fact that the Pirates have been competitive at 19-22. They have a very good bullpen, good arms in the rotation and an offense that will get better.
The Mets have managed to keep the season together despite experiencing quite a few injuries early on. They're missing three regulars from their starting lineup and have a couple of starting pitchers on the disabled list now as well. The Mets have managed to still win games by getting timely hits and holding on to some close wins. They probably won't be able to maintain that considering their -31 run differential on the season. That's only one run better than the Pirates and is a much better indicator of how good a team really is. Today's starter Johan Santana is back after a couple of major injuries and appears as if he's on his way. He comes in with a 2.89 and is striking out 9.5 batters per nine innings, which are both numbers that are very similar to his dominant days before the injuries. However, you have to take note that Santana's velocity is way down from those days and he's had to become more of a crafty pitcher to get batters. He can definitely still be successful that way, but it's hard to imagine he can keep his numbers where they are at without blowing people away. I expect some regression from him from as hitters adjust to him. The Pirates have won their last five home games against a left-hander and I expect them to continue that streak today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-20-12 | St Louis: K Lohse -110 v. Los Angeles: Billingsly | 5-6 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 0 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #951 St. Louis Cardinals over Los Angeles Dodgers (8:05pm ET) The St. Louis Cardinals take on the Los Angeles Dodgers in ESPN's Sunday Night Game of the Week. The Dodgers have taken the first two games of this series so St. Louis will be looking to avoid the sweep in this one. Kyle Lohse pitches for St. Louis and he's off to possibly the best start of his long career with a 5-1 record, 2.70 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. The 33-year old right-hander has increased his strikeout rate, reduced his walks and just looks like a more confident pitcher on the mound. He'll be facing Dodgers lineup that is without their main cog Matt Kemp. Kemp changes the whole dynamic of the lineup as they go from an above average lineup with him to a below average lineup without him. The Dodgers are also without three other starters today - Mark Ellis, Juan Uribe and Juan Rivera. Not many teams are going to produce much without four regulars, especially when one of those players is an MVP candidate.
The Cardinals come in with some injuries of their own without Lance Berkman, Allen Craig and John Jay. However, the Cardinals are one of the deeper teams in baseball and can plug in players that are nearly as good from their bench. They've been fighting injuries all season long, but that hasn't stopped them from being the #1 ranked offense in the National League. They'll face off against the struggling Chad Billingsley today. Billingsley has been a mess over his last three outings going 0-2 with a 6.43 ERA and 2.29 WHIP. He's never been a very consistent pitcher and is prone to getting hot and cold streaks during the season. He's definitely experiencing the latter and that provides us with a good opportunity to fade him today. The Cardinals are 16-5 in Lohse's last 21 starts and I like their chances to add another win to that streak today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-19-12 | Oakland A's +125 v. San Francisco Giants | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 4 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #907 Oakland A's over San Francisco Giants (4:05pm ET) The Oakland A's meet up with the San Francisco Giants in the second game of the interleague series between these natural rivals. The A's have quietly put together a very nice season at 20-20 on the year when everyone had predicted them to be in the cellar of the American League West this season. They've done it with great pitching, some timely hitting and solid fundamental baseball. It doesn't seem like the bookmakers are buying in quite yet based on the lines you see each day, but this team has showed some good value early on. Today they give the ball to 25-year old Tyson Ross. The young right-hander had a rough time in his first few starts of the season after being given a chance in the rotation, but the A's stood behind him and he's turned it around in his last two starts. Ross is a hurler that pitches to contact and excels at getting lots of groundballs. He faces a San Francisco team today that has really been struggling at the dish, and a lot of that has to do with Pablo Sandoval being injured.
The Giants counter with Ryan Vogelsong as their starter in this one. While he's put up a nice 2.66 ERA this season, Vogelsong has been experiencing some big control problems and his walks have gone up over his last several starts. He's also lost some zip on his fastball and doesn't look quite as sharp as he did last season. Now's the time to take advantage of this before his ERA starts to balloon and the value is gone. The Giants are also only 3-7 in Vogelsong's last 10 starts as a favorite, and I think they will struggle again in the favorite role today. Take the A's in today's matchup. |
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05-19-12 | Miami Marlins -109 v. Cleveland Indians | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #911 Miami Marlins over Cleveland Indians (4:05pm ET) The Miami Marlins are one of the hottest teams in baseball after getting off to a slow start on the 2012 campaign. They've won 13 of their last 17 games and are finally playing like the team that everyone thought they could be when they made all of their blockbuster acquisitions in the offseason. It's been a great team effort as their hitting is finally coming around, the starting pitching has been great and even the bullpen situation has finally been worked out. Today's starter for the Marlins Anibal Sanchez is pitching about as well as anyone in the major leagues right now. In his seven starts, Sanchez has a 2.28 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and has struck out 51 batters while only walking 12. He's been consistently dominate as he hasn't given up more than three runs in any start and has pitched at least six innings in every start.
The Cleveland Indians come into this game at 22-17, but they've been extremely fortunate in getting there. They have a -4 run differential on the year and have been good in close games. They started out very similarly last season and came crashing back down to earth in a hurry. It probably won't be as drastic as a fall this season, but you can certainly expect some regression. I don't like today's starter Jeanmar Gomez too much as he's been inconsistent and is still trying to find his way in the major leagues. He's going to need to be close to perfect today against a red hot Marlins team since Sanchez is on the mound, and I don't think he'll be able to handle it. Take the streaking Marlins today at a very favorable price. |
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05-18-12 | St Louis: L Lynn -125 v. Los Angeles: T Lilly | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -125 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
4-unit Play Take #951 St. Louis Cardinals over Los Angeles Dodgers (10:10pm ET) The St. Louis Cardinals head to Los Angeles to take on the Dodgers in the only non-Interleague matchup this weekend. Both teams have gotten off to great starts this season and are at the top of their respective divisions. The Cardinals have also been hampered by injuries for a good part of the season without arguably their top two players - Lance Berkman and Chris Carpenter. But Berkman is back in the lineup now and Carpenter's replacement has been dominating the National League and takes the ball today. Lance Lynn was given the opportunity to fill some big shoes when Carpenter was injured in the spring, and he has come through in a huge way. Lynn leads the league with six wins and has a miniscule 1.81 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in his seven starts. He has also amassed a 44-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio and has clearly demonstrated that he belongs in the starting rotation. It will be an interesting decision to make once Carpenter returns, but for now Lynn will continue to be one of the best pitchers in the league.
The Dodgers have gotten bit by the injury bug lately and it's definitely slowed them down. Early frontrunner for the MVP Matt Kemp is on the 15-day disabled list, along with Juan Rivera and Juan Uribe. That's three missing starters for a team that isn't very deep to begin with. The loss of Kemp is probably bigger than any other team could have as he provides so much offensively and makes the hitters around him so much better. Ted Lilly has a tough task for the Dodgers today as he knows he needs to keep the Cardinals offense at bay because the Dodger offense isn't healthy. Unfortunately for him, the Cardinals are the best hitting team in the league and average 5.5 runs per game. The Cardinals lineup is deep and they don't give you any room for error as everyone is an above-average major league hitter. I think they'll be too much to handle for a struggling Lilly and the Cardinals should come out on top tonight. |
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05-18-12 | New York Mets +140 v. Toronto Blue Jays | 5-14 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 35 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #959 New York Mets over Toronto Blue Jays (7:05pm ET) Two southpaws take the mound as the New York Mets travel north of the border to play the Toronto Blue Jays in the first of a three-game set to start off interleague play. The Mets aren't flashy and don't do anything extraordinary, but they're good enough in each facet of the game to be competitive and it's led them to a 21-17 record so far this season. Today's starter Jon Niese is one of the most underrated starting pitchers in the National League. The young left-hander has a 3.40 ERA is one of the more consistent pitchers that you will find. He knows how to work the hitters and always gives his team a shot to win. For that fact, he's a great pitcher to back at this price range.
The Blue Jays are a good team but they haven't played quite as well as some thought that they would. Their offense has been mediocre and they've had some big problems in the back end of their bullpen without a true closer. They're going to be without Brett Lawrie today as he's been suspended for throwing his helmet, which is a fairly big loss offensively. Starting pitcher Ricky Romero hasn't made the big jump for the Jays that everyone was hoping he would this season. He has a 3.88 ERA but his strikeouts are down and his walks are up from last season. It's hard to say why he's taken a step backwards from last year's huge season, but until he figures it out he's definitely a pitcher you want to avoid. The Jays are definitely the better team here today, but the Mets definitely have some value today with a solid pitcher on the mound. In addition, the Mets are actually 6-2 in Niese's last 8 starts as an underdog in the price range of +110 to +150. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-18-12 | Boston Red Sox v. Philadelphia Phillies -159 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #956 Philadelphia Phillies over Boston Red Sox (7:05pm ET) Interleague play begins as two teams who were pegged as possible World Series opponents this year face off. So far it hasn't quite worked out that way as the Boston Red Sox and Philadelphia Phillies are both in last place in their respective divisions. That's not a mistake - the Red Sox and Phillies are in the cellar and it's May 18th. Let's start with the Red Sox who have experienced more injuries than any team in the American League so far in 2012. They are currently without the services of Ellsbury, Youkilis and Crawford in their everyday lineup - three all-star players. Their bullpen has also taken a beating this season as they don't have that stopper for the 8th or 9th innings that they're accustomed to having. The offense has somehow managed to get to 2nd in the American League in runs scored, but without three of their top producers, you can't expect them to continue on that pace. Remember also, that the Red Sox will be playing without David Ortiz in their lineup today since the DH will not be used in a National League park. That's a huge loss for Boston as he's easily been their best hitter all season long.
The Phillies have some of the same problems as the Red Sox - injuries to several players on offense and a bullpen that can't get anyone out. Without Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, it's been tough for the Phillies to put runs on the board but they have shown signs of coming together lately. Over their last seven games, the Phillies have averaged 5.3 runs per game en route to a 6-1 mark. They're now 8th in the league in runs scored, a huge jump a few weeks back when they were ranked 15th. Today's starter Cole Hamels is one of the best in the business and he's in the midst of putting together a career year. So far in 2012, Hamels is 5-1 with a 2.28 ERA and he just happens to be pitching in the last year of his current contract; coincidence I think not. Not many pitchers in baseball are throwing better than Hamels so he's going to be tough to beat today. Boston's starter Daniel Bard has got a lot of press due to his transition from the bullpen to the starting rotation, but so far he hasn't lived up to expectations. Bard is 3-4 with a 4.30 ERA but what's most concerning is his 4.8 walks per nine innings. He's never had pinpoint control, but as a starter he's gotten himself into a lot jams. Luckily so far he hasn't gotten burned on them too often, but it's only a matter of time before it becomes his undoing. With the much better starting pitcher on the mound today and with David Ortiz on the bench, I like the Phillies to win this one. |
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05-17-12 | Boston Red Sox +115 v. Tampa Bay Rays | 5-3 | Win | 115 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #929 Boston Red Sox (+115) over Tampa Bay Rays (7:10pm ET)
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-17-12 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Colorado Rockies -116 | 9-7 | Loss | -116 | 5 h 43 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #904 Colorado Rockies (-115) over Arizona Diamondbacks (3:10pm ET)
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05-16-12 | Baltimore Orioles v. Kansas City Royals -125 | 4-3 | Loss | -125 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #978 Kansas City Royals over Baltimore Orioles (8:10pm ET) We haven't seen the Kansas City Royals as a favorite this big too many times this season, but for today's game it's definitely warranted. Felipe Paulino toes the rubber for the Royals as they take on the Baltimore Orioles. The Royals come in as winners of four straight and six of their last seven games. More impressively, they just swept a two-game series in Texas, outscoring the Rangers 10-5 in the two games. The Royals' bats have really woken up and this team all of a sudden looks like they could make a little bit of noise in the American League Central. Paulino has been in really good form dating all the way back to his minor league rehab starts a few weeks ago. After a strong rehab, he's posted a 3.09 ERA in his two starts, striking out 12 batters and only walking three. His velocity is even better than it was last year and he appears to be fully healthy again and worth backing today.
The Orioles have cooled off a little bit after a red hot start but are clearly getting some respect in the betting market place now. Today's pitcher Tommy Hunter has struggled this season with a 5.19 ERA and is the weakest link in the Baltimore rotation. He's had some control issues that has led to giving up some big innings and with a hot Royals team facing him, it could get ugly. The Royals are 11-4 in their last 15 games as a home favorite dating back to last season. They've also won 5 of the last 7 starts when Paulino has been on the hill. Take the Royals with confidence today as they look to extend an impressive run. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-14-12 | Milwaukee Brewers -128 v. New York Mets | 1-3 | Loss | -128 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #955 Milwaukee Brewers over New York Mets (7:10pm ET) There's nothing like finding a weak pitcher that you can look to play against in almost every single situation. In tonight's game between the Milwaukee Brewers and the New York Mets, we have such a pitcher. The 41-year old Miguel Batista is that guy and he very clearly should not be pitching in the major leagues. He comes in with a 5.89 ERA but it gets worse when you dig a bit deeper. He's averaging an astounding 7.4 walks per nine innings on the season so far, but has somehow convinced the Mets that he's the most qualified guy to remain slotted in the #5 spot in their rotation. In addition, his velocity is way down from last season which should probably be expected from a guy that should be retired. Batista has pitched primarily out of the bullpen this season, but in his two starts he wasn't able to make it past the fifth inning. That means that we're going to see quite a bit of the beleaguered Mets bullpen in this game. In 2012, the Mets pen is currently ranked 14th in the National League with a 4.49 ERA. They were worked over yesterday afternoon as they gave up six runs in the bottom of the ninth to give away a game against the Marlins in which they held a two-run lead. Four relievers were used in that game and three of them gave up at least two runs. There's no telling how bad they're going to be today when they'll probably be asked to pitch at least four innings.
Yovani Gallardo has started the season a bit slow for the Brewers, but he's still an above average pitcher with fantastic stuff. He's 2-3 with a 5.35 ERA but his strikeout numbers have improved from last season and he's been extremely unlucky with batted balls in play. His underlying statistics point to a pitcher who should have an ERA in the upper-3's and that should be more than enough to get the job done today against a Mets teams that has several injuries in their lineup. Gallardo should also get plenty of run support in this one, so he definitely won't have to be perfect. Take the Brewers in a game that could get ugly really fast. |
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05-14-12 | Tampa Bay: J Niemann v. Toronto: B Morrow -133 | 7-1 | Loss | -133 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #968 Toronto Blue Jays over Tampa Bay Rays (7:05pm ET) Today's game between the Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays has the makings of a good old pitcher's duel. Brandon Morrow throws for the Jays and he's quietly putting together a career year. Morrow is 4-1 with a 2.27 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in his seven starts in 2012 and his last three starts have been even better. Over his last three starts, Morrow has only allowed one run in 21 innings of work and his strikeout to walk ratio is 27-4. That is domination. He has sacrificed some strikeouts for efficiency this season, and it has really paid off. Today he'll face a banged up Rays lineup that is without superstar Evan Longoria. Since Longoria has been injured, the Rays offense has struggled and is batting under .240 in the 12 games that he has missed.
The Rays counter with Jeff Niemann today, who has put together a pretty decent season so far in 2012. He's 2-3 with a 3.48 ERA and usually keeps his team in the game. Not the dominating kind of stuff that Morrow brings, but he knows how to pitch and avoids the big inning. Today he'll face a Blue Jays lineup that is finally starting to wake up this season. After struggling early on, the Jays have hit well over their last dozen games averaging 4.83 runs per game. Jose Bautista was the biggest source of the struggles but he's been blasting the ball out of the park again lately and that changes the dynamic of the entire lineup when he's on fire. So Toronto clearly has the better starting pitcher going today who is in great current form, the offense that is swinging the bats better, and they are at home. We haven't mentioned the bullpens yet, but neither team has an advantage there as both have been equally bad. All things considered, this line appears to be about 20 cents too low, so we'll take Toronto in this one. |
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05-12-12 | Detroit: D Fister -132 v. Oakland: B Mccarthy | 1-3 | Loss | -132 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #979 Detroit Tigers over Oakland A's (8:05pm ET) Today's game between the Detroit Tigers and Oakland A's is a fairly easy handicap. Detroit has the much better starting pitcher and the better offense - the two most important components to winning a baseball game. Doug Fister is back for the Tigers making his second start after returning from the disabled list. Fister was sensational in his last start in Seattle throwing seven shutout innings and only yielding four hits and no walks. Unfortunately the bullpen blew the lead and he was stuck with a no decision, but he definitely did his job. The Tigers offense has also started to wake up finally after a very slow start early on. In their last four games, the Tigers have averaged 6.3 runs per game after Leyland has shuffled the lineup up a bit. This is the offense that everyone expected when the season began, and it's the offense I expect to see more often than not for the rest of the season.
The A's have managed to put up a 17-16 record this season, but don't let that record fool you. They still have one of the worst offenses in all of baseball and they rely far too heavily on a young starting rotation and bullpen. One of the veterans of the staff for Oakland pitches today - Brandon McCarthy. The Tigers catch McCarthy at a good time as he's been experiencing shoulder soreness. He was originally slated to start on Tuesday, but had his start pushed back to today until he felt a little better. Shoulder problems are never a good sign for a starting pitcher and there's a good chance he won't be quite as effective as he normally is today. The A's could also possibly be without their best offensive player Yoenis Cespedes who has missed the last few games with a hand injury. It hasn't been a pleasant season for the Tigers so far, but they have the much better starting pitcher on the hill today and their offense seems to be shaping up into good form. Take the Tigers tonight. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-12-12 | Atlanta Braves v. St.Louis Cardinals -122 | 7-2 | Loss | -122 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #962 St. Louis Cardinals (-120) over Atlanta Braves (7:05pm ET) Mark this game down for future reference because you won't see Adam Wainwright at such a short favorite at home for the rest of the season unless he's facing an elite pitcher. The linesmakers are down on Wainwright simply because of his poor ERA and the fact that he came off of Tommy John surgery last year. However, a closer look at Wainwright's numbers proves that he's the same old Wainwright on the mound this season, and actually a tad better. Looking past his 5.61 ERA you'll see that he is striking out 9.0 batters per nine innings (a career high for him), walking only 1.8 batters per nine innings (a career low for him) and his groundball rate is 56% (another career high for him). These are a few of the key variables that tell you more of the story with Wainwright and that he'll be successful going forward. So far he has just had some bad luck as a lot of his fly balls are going out of the yard, but once that comes back down to a normal level, his ERA will come back down around his normal level of 3. Rest assured, this is still an All-Star caliber pitcher that will win lots of games for the Cardinals this season.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals offense is putting up earth-shattering numbers in 2012. The team is averaging 5.7 runs per game so far and hasn't missed a beat since losing Albert Pujols (it actually appears that they were better off not keeping him around). They also just got back Lance Berkman, who is probably their best overall hitter, which will make the Cardinal offense even better. The Braves offense is not too far behind St. Louis but there is definitely a gap there. Brandon Beachy is today's starter for Atlanta. Beachy is a 25-year old right-hander that broke into the league in a big way last year with a 3.68 ERA and amazing strikeout rate of 10.7 batters per nine innings. This year he has a 1.62 ERA in his six starts but there are warning signs that he is not the same pitcher he was last year. His strikeout rate has fallen all the way down to 6.2 and his stuff just doesn't look as crisp. Now that the league has seen him a few times, it's his turn to make some adjustments otherwise he will start to see his ERA climb above where it was last year. I'm not so sure he has the stuff to be an above average pitcher in this league, so I'll take the more proven Wainwright who has a better offense behind him and is at home. |
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05-12-12 | New York (N): R Dickey +120 v. Miami: R Nolasco | 9-3 | Win | 120 | 2 h 46 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #953 New York Mets (+125) over Miami Marlins (1:05pm ET) It's hard to imagine it could happen, but the New York Mets are flying under the radar right now at 18-14. With all of the storylines in the National League East, from the hot start for the Nationals and their excellent starting pitching, all of the money spent by the Marlins in the offseason, the big bats of the Braves and the seeming demise of the Phillies, the Mets' solid start has kind of been buried in the news. I'm not sure that the Mets will still be there when the dust settles in the end, but at this point they have definitely overachieved and are playing very competitive ball. Today knuckleballer R.A Dickey pitches for the Mets and he's been one of the key contributors from the starting rotation. Dickey is 4-1 with a 3.76 ERA and he has tightened up his knuckleball even more in 2012. He's throwing his knuckle pitcher over 80% of the time this season and has increased his strikeout rate to 7.5 per nine innings. He's 27 years old, which is generally about the time pitchers begin to progress to another level. As a result, I expect Dickey to get even better and be a good pitcher to back from here on out. He also has fared very well against the Marlins in his career.
The Marlins started out the season in disappointing fashion after spending huge amounts of money in the offseason to acquire Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle and Heath Bell. However, they have righted the ship winning nine of 10 to improve to 17-15 on the season. There are still some pretty big issues on this team though as they haven't swung the bats like everyone thought they would and there are questions marks in the bullpen, including at the closer position. Today they go with the inconsistent Ricky Nolasco on the hill. You never know quite what to expect from the 29-year old right-hander who has had three straight mediocre seasons coming into 2012. His ERA is decent this season at 2.72 but his peripheral numbers foreshadow some struggles down the road. His strikeout rate has dropped off by over 30% from last season and his walk rate is creeping up as well. He's gotten lucky on batted balls in play and it's only a matter of time before we start to see the old Nolasco once again. The Mets are 6-2 in Dickey's last eight starts as a road underdog dating back to last season. Conversely, the Marlins are 3-7 in Nolasco's last 10 starts as a home favorite. With the better starting pitcher on the mound today I like the chances for the Mets to get a win in this one as a live underdog. |
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05-11-12 | Detroit: R Porcello -125 v. Oakland: T Milone | Top | 4-11 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #929 Detroit Tigers over Oakland A's (10:05pm ET) The Detroit Tigers have not lived up to expectations yet this season. At 16-15, they have been one of the most disappointing teams in baseball and for good reason. Their offense hasn't hit, their bullpen has imploded several times and their team defense is mediocre at best. The one bright spot has been their starting pitching. Their starters have kept them in most of their games and without them they'd be abysmal. Rick Porcello is one of those guys and he takes the ball today. Porcello's numbers aren't that pretty upon first glance, but he gets the job done. He has a 4.91 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, but his peripheral numbers point to a pitcher who should have an ERA in the 3's. Porcello has increased his velocity on his fastball, increased his groundball rate and is walking almost a full batter less than he did last season. He's still only 23 years old but it's clear that he's starting to figure things out. And this is the time to back Porcello - before he starts putting up great numbers and the market catches on to him. Then it's too late.
The A's have some major problems offensively and it's not going to help that their best player might be out for this one. Centerfielder Yoenis Cespedes is listed as questionable, but he has missed the last few games and could land on the disabled list with a hand injury. He's the only player in the A's lineup that can be considered above average as the A's offense ranks 13th in the American League. Tonight's pitcher for the A's Tom Milone is a finesse type pitcher who throws strikes but doesn't overwhelm you. The Tigers saw a similar pitcher last night in Bartolo Colon so there shouldn't be much of an adjustment in the approach for them. The good news for the Tigers is that their offense and bullpen are going to improve. They really can't get much worse based on their talent and it's only a matter of time before they turn things around. Last night was a step in the right direction as the Tigers put 10 runs on the board in a victory against Oakland in the first game of the series. The A's are outmatched in this one again and this line is at a very reasonable level to pull the trigger on Detroit. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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