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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-04-14 | San Francisco Giants v. Los Angeles Dodgers -166 | 8-4 | Loss | -166 | 3 h 21 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #906 Los Angeles Dodgers over San Francisco Giants (4:10pm EST) One of the best rivalries in the game starts up tonight in Los Angeles as the Dodgers host the Giants for a three-game series. Hyun-Jin Ryu gets the ball for the Dodgers in the first game, and he's been dominant in his first two starts this season. He had an amazing rookie season in 2013 going 14-8 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 30 starts. This season he hasn't allowed a single earned run in either of his starts and he has a miniscule 0.75 WHIP. No question, this guy has put in the work during the offseason and in the spring to get even better. On most teams, he's your ace. He'll be opposed by right-hander Ryan Vogelsong of the Giants today. Vogelsong had a tough go of it last year in an injury-shortened campaign. In 19 starts he was just 4-6 with a robust 5.73 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. There were questions circulating about whether or not he'd keep his spot in the rotation, but for now he's in. The Dodgers should get some good whacks in today, as they still have one of the best lineups in all of baseball (even without Matt Kemp). The Giants have a solid lineup as well, but they are without second basemen Marco Scutaro right now. He's an important piece at the top of the order, and they don't have a viable replacement. Los Angeles has the edge in every phase of this game and should be a much bigger favorite.
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04-03-14 | St. Louis Cardinals +100 v. Cincinnati Reds | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 43 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #951 St. Louis Cardinals over Cincinnati Reds (12:35pm EST) The Cardinals and Reds have played two pitcher's duels in the first two games of the series with each team trading 1-0 wins. Today's series finale features two more pitchers that have the ability to dominate the opposition, but I like Lance Lynn a bit better for a couple of reasons. First off, Lynn had the much stronger spring. I usually don't put a ton of stock into spring training results, but it's hard to overlook Lynn's 27strikeouts in 16.1 innings of work. I also trust the bullpen behind Lynn a lot more than I do Cincinnati's pen. The Reds are without closer Aroldis Chapman and his backup Jonathan Broxton is out as well. Setup man Sean Marshall is also on the disabled list, so the Reds are going with their fourth and fifth options in what should be another tight game. The Reds will also be going with a rookie catcher in Tucker Barnhart today. That generally affects the pitching staff in a negative way, as the batter isn't always on the same page. Wrong team is favored in this one, as I like the Cardinals to grab a victory here.
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04-02-14 | Washington Nationals -130 v. New York Mets | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #907 Washington Nationals over New York Mets (7:10pm EST) This season could be special for the Nationals. Everything is lining up nicely for Washington to win this year. They have several players entering the beginning of their prime, they made some great off-season acquisitions and made a brilliant managerial hire in Matt Williams. The Nats really don't have any glaring weaknesses and I will be surprised if this team doesn't easily win the NL East this season. Gio Gonzalez gets the ball for them today, and he's been as solid as could be since joining the team a couple of years ago. He posted a 3.36 ERA in 2013 and 2.89 the year before, but doesn't get a lot of attention since he's the #3 guy behind Strasburg and Zimmermann. He'll face a meager Mets lineup that will certainly have its struggles this season. They have several guys in the starting lineup that barely deserve to have a bench role and they're also without Dan Murphy today as he's on paternity leave. Bartolo Colon goes for the Mets, coming over from Oakland in the offseason. Colon had a spectacular season last year, and was actually in the running for Cy Young. There's no way he can replicate that again here, and major regression has to be expected at age 40. The Mets also have some problems in the bullpen, as closer Bobby Parnell is on the disabled list and that means Jose Valverde is the new closer. That's not a good thing, so even if the Nats are trailing late they have a great chance to come back. Take Washington here.
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04-02-14 | Chicago Cubs +145 v. Pittsburgh Pirates | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 34 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #903 Chicago Cubs over Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05pm EST) The Chicago Cubs have been a poor investment on the diamond year after year for bettors. In fact, betting on the Cubs every game for the last 15 years would have cost you over 250 units! However, there comes a time when the market has fully adjusted (or even over-adjusted) and you start to see some value. This year's edition in Chicago isn't anything to write home about, but they are getting better and will do a decent job of run prevention. They have an underrated starting rotation, and today's hurler Edwin Jackson fits that bill. The 30-year old right-hander has been marred by inconsistency in his career, but his skill set is elite. He throws hard and can dominate the opposition on any given day. That's the kind of guy you want if you are taking a decent-sized underdog, as mediocre isn't going to cut it. Jackson also put up pretty good numbers this spring and looks ready to turn his special skills into a productive season. He'll face a Pirates team that will have a tough time matching what they accomplished last season. Everything went right for the Bucs last year as they won a ton of close games and several players posted career-best numbers. I expect some regression in 2014 as a whole. They will no longer be overlooked as the league laughingstocks after making the playoffs for the first time in 20 years last season. I expect Jackson to shut down Pittsburgh today and the Cubs to score just enough to get us there.
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04-01-14 | Colorado Rockies -110 v. Miami Marlins | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #953 Colorado Rockies over Miami Marlins (7:10pm EST) Several so-called baseball experts are calling for a drastic improvement from the Miami Marlins this season. I don't see it. They lost 100 games last season and didn't make any dramatic changes to their roster. Yes they added a couple of veterans and their younger players are a bit more experienced, but this team is focused on the future. They still don't have anyone to protect Giancarlo Stanton in the lineup and no one in the starting rotation beyond Jose Fernandez strikes fear into batters. They also have holes in the bullpen and are still learning how to play this game. They'll face the Colorado Rockies today - another team that some are calling for improvement from, and this time it's warranted. The Rockies are healthy right now, and they've been a pretty good team when they have had all of their parts. Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez have both spent significant time on the disabled list over the last few seasons, but they're on the lineup card today. This pitching staff is also underrated, and one of the reasons why is today's starter Brett Anderson. People forget just how good Anderson was with Oakland when he was healthy, but the problem has been keeping him on the field too. If Colorado can maintain good health all year, they can win close to 90 games. The problem is, they probably won't stay healthy given all of the red flags on their roster. But today they are, and that's why we see value with them against a young Marlins team. Take the Rockies at a generous price.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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03-31-14 | St. Louis Cardinals -125 v. Cincinnati Reds | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 4 h 23 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #907 St. Louis Cardinals over Cincinnati Reds (4:10pm EST) Opening Day is finally here as we welcome in the 2014 baseball season. The last time we tuned in, the Boston Red Sox finished off the St. Louis Cardinals to capture the 2013 World Series. But despite the loss, it was a great year for the Cardinals. This year's edition in St. Louis is even better as this team has a great chance at getting back to the World Series. They have a great starting rotation, led by Adam Wainwright, who will toe the rubber tonight in Cincinnati. They also have one of the best offenses in baseball and a lights out bullpen at the backend with Carlos Martinez and Trevor Rosenthal. This is a team that has no weaknesses and unbelievable depth. They'll be up against a Reds team that comes into the game a bit banged up. They are without closer Aroldis Chapman, one of the most valuable players on this team, and his replacement Jonathan Broxton. That's a little scary if this game is close in the late innings. And there's a good chance that the Reds will need to dip into the bullpen today as Johnny Cueto goes for the Reds. He's been dealing with some lingering issues with his shoulder, so there's a good chance the Reds won't extend him. I was surprised to see the line this low, as it's hard to catch value with a team as good as the Cardinals are. But we'll gladly take St. Louis at this reduced price as they have the edge in every facet of the game.
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03-31-14 | Minnesota Twins v. Chicago White Sox -161 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 4 h 20 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #920 Chicago White Sox over Minnesota Twins (4:10pm EST) The Minnesota Twins are instantly on the fade list, as their spring was horrendous on several fronts. The team finished just 9-16 in its 25 games. But more importantly, their regular lineup couldn't hit a lick all spring. It was so bad during the spring, that the front office made several critical remarks that someone needed to step up and produce. That's not a good sign early on, especially when management should be encouraging their young players. It's no surprise that this Twins team is bad, but they are going to be even worse than most expect unless they get some surprises from unexpected sources. Today they have a huge challenge on their hands facing Chris Sale. The young left-hander is one of the top pitchers in the game that rarely gets brought up in elite discussions. This is his third year in the rotation and I expect him to take an even bigger step forward in becoming one of the top pitchers in baseball. The White Sox made some really nice additions in the offseason bringing in Jose Abreu, Adam Eaton and Matt Davidson to help build up their young core. Avisail Garcia should also make some big strides in becoming an All-Star type talent. The Sox aren't going to compete for a division title this season, but they are definitely a cut above the Twins and have a huge edge on the mound in this one. Take the White Sox, as the price on this one should be at least 20 cents higher.
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10-28-13 | Boston Red Sox +115 v. St. Louis Cardinals | 3-1 | Win | 115 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
2-unit Play Take #959 Boston Red Sox at St. Louis Cardinals (8:05pm EST) The World Series is tied up at two apiece as pivotal Game 5 goes tonight in St. Louis. This will be a rematch of Game 1 in Boston when Jon Lester defeated Adam Wainwright 8-1. That game wasn't even close as Lester brought his A-game and Wainwright admitted that he just didn't have it. I expect Game 5 to be a lot different and much closer, but the result will be the same. The biggest edge for the Red Sox in this game is that the Cardinals really struggle mightily against left-handers. Only the Marlins were worse against southpaws in the National League this season, and Lester is one of the best lefties in baseball. As a result, Wainwright will probably have to shut down a tough Red Sox lineup to give his team a shot today. I like Lester's chances a lot better and will take Boston at this underdog price.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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10-26-13 | Boston Red Sox +101 v. St. Louis Cardinals | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
2-unit Play Take #955 Boston Red Sox over St. Louis Cardinals (8:05pm EST) The World Series shifts to St. Louis for Game 3 between the Red Sox and Cardinals. We've liked the Red Sox since the beginning of this series and aren't going to back down with them here. Another Cardinals youngster takes the mound today, as Joe Kelly gets the nod. Make no mistake about it, though, he's no Michael Wacha. Kelly pitched mostly out of the bullpen this season, but was forced into the rotation due to injuries. He's been serviceable in the postseason, but nothing special. In 24 innings of work, the right-hander is 0-1 with a 3.75 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. This is the biggest game of his life so far and at 25-year old he will probably have some nerves. On the other side is veteran Jake Peavy. He's not had a very good postseason himself, but I have a lot of faith that he's going to bounce back. He is a gamer and is embarrassed over his last performance in the ALCS against the Tigers. This is his chance to redeem himself, and I expect a really good effort. Despite not having the DH in the lineup, I still think the Red Sox have more weapons. I also think they have the better bullpen and are the better team overall. The price is right here for Boston.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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10-24-13 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Boston Red Sox -118 | 4-2 | Loss | -118 | 7 h 58 m | Show | |
3-unit Play #952 Boston Red Sox over St. Louis Cardinals (8:05pm EST) We pointed it out yesterday and are going to touch on it again here. The Boston Red Sox and St. Louis Cardinals are very similar teams. Both have a great lineup, both sport a solid rotation and both have great leadership and clutch performers. However, the Red Sox are just a little bit better in each aspect and they have a huge advantage in the bullpen. Boston also plays in a much tougher division in the AL East and has been much more consistent that the Cardinals have been this season. As for the pitching matchup tonight, we have a hard-throwing rookie going up against a cagey veteran. Michael Wacha of the Cardinals is the rookie and he's been sensational throughout the playoffs. He has won all three of his starts and posted a miniscule 0.43 ERA and 0.57 WHIP in the process. John Lackey is the veteran and he's been great as well going 2-0 in the playoffs and shutting down the Tigers in a 1-0 win against Justin Verlander in Game Three of the ALCS. The big difference between these two is that Lackey has experience pitching in the World Series and Wacha does not. Lackey actually won a huge Game 7 with the Angels in the 2002 World Series and has thrown 90 innings in the postseason in his career. That is a huge factor, especially considering this will game with be away from home for Wacha. He's obviously never pitched in Fenway Park and to expect him to come through for the first time in the biggest stage in the sport is asking a lot. Another factor in this game is the health of Carlos Beltran, who was removed last night after banging into the wall. He has a rib contusion and will probably miss tonight's game, which is huge. The Red Sox jumped all over Wainwright last night and I don't see any reason why they can't put up a repeat performance tonight. This is the best team in baseball. Take Boston once again.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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10-23-13 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Boston Red Sox -118 | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
4-unit Play #952 Boston Red Sox over St. Louis Cardinals (8:05pm EST) The 2013 World Series is set to begin tonight in Boston as the Red Sox take on the St. Louis Cardinals. This is a rematch of the 2004 World Series, when the Red Sox broke the curse of the Bambino and notched their first title in 86 years in a 4-0 sweep. They went on to win another World Series ring three years later and have been a powerhouse in the American League for what seems like decades. The Cardinals have been equally as dominant on the National League side, earning three trips to the World Series over the last decade and winning two of them. You could probably make the argument that these are the two best teams of the last 10 years in baseball and wouldn't get too much opposition. But every year is different and none of that matters much tonight. These are two smart organizations that have put spectacular teams on the field in 2013 and deserve to be here. They are very similar to one another in that both have a great lineup, both sport a solid rotation and both have great leadership and clutch performers. However, the Red Sox are just a little bit better in each aspect and they have a huge advantage in the bullpen. During the ALCS, the Red Sox pen allowed just one run in 21 innings of work! That's complete dominance - an ERA of just 0.43 in six games against a team that can hit. The Cardinals pen was good, but they don't have anyone as good as Craig Breslow or Koji Uehara. Those guys are locked in right now and when they come into the game, it feels like the game is over for the opposition. Each team's ace takes the hill tonight, so there's a good chance that we have a tight game late where the bullpens could decide it. And if that's the case, the Red Sox carry a huge edge. They also are at home tonight, which means they gain an extra advantage with the DH and the Cardinals are forced to play in an unfamiliar park. I like the Red Sox here.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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10-19-13 | Detroit Tigers v. Boston Red Sox -113 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
2-unit Play #926 Boston Red Sox over Detroit Tigers (4:35pm EST) It's been a great series so far, but we predict Game Six will be the end of the ALCS tonight in Boston. The Red Sox lead the series 3-2 and come back home to Fenway where they were 53-28 during the regular season and 3-1 during the playoffs. The Detroit Tigers are certainly a worthy opponent but the Red Sox were the better team all season long and have the advantage in every phase of the game except for starting pitching. While starting pitching is obviously huge in any baseball game, you can rest assured that it's already factored into the line and you'll rarely be able to effectively handicap a game while looking at just the starters. Detroit's lineup is not what it was earlier in the season. Miguel Cabrera is playing injured and doesn't quite have the power he did during the regular season when he bashed 44 home runs. Prince Fielder doesn't have an RBI in the postseason and is in the worst hitting slump of his professional career. The Tigers also moved a struggling Austin Jackson down in the lineup and have had to make several other tweaks like playing Jhonny Peralta in left field to generate more chances. The Red Sox haven't been hitting well either, but their lineup is much more balanced and they don't rely on one or two guys to get things going. Four of the first five games in this series were decided by a single run, so the bullpens could loom large once again. The Red Sox have one of the best pens in the game and have a closer who is untouchable in Koji Uehara. They've allowed just one earned run in 17 innings of work in the postseason. The Tigers only have one guy that can be trusted in their pen and that could be a problem if this game is tight late. Boston also plays better defense and runs the bases better - two underrated aspects of handicapping that come into play more often than one would think. All in all, we have a better Boston team that is just a small favorite at home. They close it out here and move on to the World Series.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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10-18-13 | Los Angeles Dodgers -125 v. St. Louis Cardinals | Top | 0-9 | Loss | -125 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
10-unit Play #921 Los Angeles Dodgers over St. Louis Cardinals (8:35pm EST) The Los Angeles Dodgers have their backs up against the wall, but they've certainly been here before. The argument can be made that this team actually enjoys the pressure and the big moments and plays even better when they really need to. The Dodgers started out the season an abysmal 30-42 and in the cellar of the NL West division. Critics ripped the team and management as nearly everyone wrote them off for 2013. But they rose to the occasion and went on one of the greatest runs in baseball history. They went 53-13 over their next 66 games and found themselves with a comfortable lead atop the NL West now. Fast forward to Wednesday as the Dodgers trailed 3-1 in the series to the Cardinals and once again people said that the Dodgers were done. But here they are with a chance to tie up the series with one of the best pitchers in the game on the mound. The fact is that this team is much better than there record indicates. They didn't have Hanley Ramirez and Yasiel Puig for the first two months of the season and Zack Greinke was out most of that time with an injury as well. Since the end of June, nobody has put up the numbers the Dodgers have and they've never given up any hope in bringing a World Series to Los Angeles. Clayton Kershaw has had an amazing season and we don't need to go over his spectacular resume. He pitched masterfully in Game Two against these Cardinals going six innings while allowing no earned runs and just two hits and a walk. Unfortunately an error cost him an unearned run and the Dodgers fell 1-0. Kershaw threw just 72 pitches in that game, but rest assured that he will go close to the distance today with the Dodgers needing a win. His mound opponent in that game was Michael Wacha and he pitched just as well. However, that was the first time that Los Angeles had ever seen the rookie live. Now that they've had a taste of his stuff, I expect them to make the proper adjustments and put some pressure on him. He's been pitching well, but remember that he's just a rookie and this is the biggest game of his career. The nerves could get to the youngster as he faces the most dangerous lineup in the league. I like the Dodgers to grab this victory amidst the pressure - like they always do.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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10-15-13 | Boston Red Sox v. Detroit Tigers -148 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -148 | 4 h 25 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #914 Detroit Tigers over Boston Red Sox (4:05pm EST) He's back - Justin Verlander that is. The big right-hander is blowing away hitters right now and it's not just been in his two starts in the postseason. Going back to his start on September 23rd, Verlander has gone 27 straight innings without allowing a single run. During that span he has struck out 43 batters while walking six. His WHIP is an amazing 0.78 and he's pitching like he did two years ago when he won the Cy Young and nearly took home the MVP award. Add to that the struggles that the Boston Red Sox have had at the plate in the first two games and it's going to be hard to imagine many runs crossing the plate for the road team. Outside of a grand slam by David Ortiz in the 8th inning last night, Boston has looked silly at the plate in this series. Boston hitters have struck out 32 times in the two games and are batting a collective .136 at the plate. That's not good when Detroit's hottest pitcher gets the ball now. The Tigers are also extremely difficult to beat in Comerica over the last few seasons. They've won 50+ games there for five straight seasons and hold one of the biggest home field advantages in the league. John Lackey goes for Boston. He's had a pretty strong season, but his numbers tailed off down the stretch and he can't be trusted right now. In his last four regular season starts, Lackey posted an abysmal 5.33 ERA. He followed that up with a horrible postseason start against Tampa Bay in which he yielded four earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of works. He was lucky to escape with a win there, but his performance was subpar and he doesn't appear confident. All signs point to Detroit tonight.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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10-14-13 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Los Angeles Dodgers +108 | 0-3 | Win | 108 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
2-unit Play Take #910 Los Angeles Dodgers over St. Louis Cardinals (8:05pm EST) The NLCS shifts to Los Angeles as the Dodgers look to get back into the series tonight. It should be a crazy atmosphere in Dodgers Stadium as the fans have been heavily invested in this team for quite some time and have brought a lot of energy to the team in the process. It won't be easy for the Dodgers as they face the ace of the Cardinals staff in Adam Wainwright. The veteran right-hander had another spectacular season, but it was the tale of two halves for him. Pre All-Star break, Wainwright was one of the best pitchers in the game going 12-5 with a 2.45 ERA. In the second half, he went just 7-4 with a 3.69 ERA - very average. He did look good in the NLDS against Pittsburgh, but both of those starts were at home and the Pirates offense isn't the Dodgers offense. I don't expect Wainwright to struggle today, but I also don't see him dominating the opposition. The Dodgers will have their chances against him, and I think they will find ways to cash in at home. Hyun-Jin Ryu comes in a bit underrated and I think he can shut down a St. Louis offense that didn't hit nearly as well against lefties this season. The Dodgers need this game badly; otherwise their season is all but over. This game could go either way, but getting plus money at home has some value with the Dodgers.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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10-13-13 | Detroit Tigers v. Boston Red Sox -110 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 18 h 17 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #908 Boston Red Sox over Detroit Tigers (8:05pm EST) Game 2 of the ALCS gets underway this evening in Boston as the Red Sox look to even the score after last night's 1-0 loss. Pitchers dominated the hitters in Game One and today we'll see two more great pitchers on the mound. Max Scherzer goes for the Tigers and he's had a masterful season. He finished the regular season 21-3 with a 2.90 ERA and 0.97 WHIP and will likely be bringing home a Cy Young award when it's announced. Clay Buchholz very well could have been in the Cy Young race had he not gotten injured and missed several months. He finished the season 12-1 with a 1.74 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in roughly half of a season. Needless to say, these pitchers have been dominant and there's no big edge either way there. However, if you break down the rest of these teams, Boston has the edge in every other major category. At the plate, the Red Sox were the best team in baseball - scoring 57 more runs than the Tigers in the regular season. Defensively Boston has an edge as well and once the game gets into the bullpen they have a better 8th inning guy and a better closer than the Tigers do. This game is also in Boston, where the Red Sox went 53-28 this season. That was the best mark in the AL and Detroit was barely over .500 on the road this season. Adding it all up, it appears that this line is a bit short. We'll take Boston here to even up the series.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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10-12-13 | Los Angeles Dodgers -134 v. St. Louis Cardinals | 0-1 | Loss | -134 | 4 h 18 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #903 Los Angeles Dodgers over St. Louis Cardinals (4:05pm EST) The Los Angeles Dodgers came into this series as favorites to beat the St. Louis Cardinals and today's starter Clayton Kershaw was one of the biggest reasons why. He's the one guy that everyone expects to completely dominate every time he takes the mound and now he has his chance to shine. He didn't have the best postseason success coming into 2013, but his last two starts against the Braves changed all of that. On just three days' rest in his last start, the southpaw went six innings without giving up an earned run while striking out six and walking just one. In Game One of that series, Kershaw blew away Braves hitters in pitching seven innings while allowing one earned run and punching out 12 batters. Today he gets a stiffer challenge with the Cardinals lineup, but they're not quite as intimidating as they seem. Their regular season numbers were bolstered by a ridiculously high batting average with runners in scoring position and they're without their most clutch hitter in Allen Craig for this series. The Dodgers have more weapons and they played in a pitcher's park in most of their games this season. I give the Dodgers the edge in the bullpen as well, as they have more arms they can trust if the game is lengthened at all. But a well-rested Kershaw should be able to go seven or eight innings and take care of business. The Dodgers need this one to even up the series and I think they get the victory today.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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10-10-13 | Detroit Tigers -105 v. Oakland A's | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take Detroit over Oakland (Thursday 8:05 pm TBS) Historically these are the type of games that Oakland does not win during the Billy Beane tenure. Oakland lost to Detroit last year in a Game 5 at home and history will repeat itself on Thursday night. Justin Verlander has not been himself this season; however, he pitched well in Game 2 of the ALDS and will give us another great outing on Thursday. The Tigers have a much better line-up than does Oakland especially with Johnny Peralta back from suspension. Detroit is 20-8 in games when their opponent scored 5 runs or more in their previous game. Oakland is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog in the playoffs.
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10-09-13 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. St. Louis Cardinals -155 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #952 St. Louis Cardinals over Pittsburgh Pirates (8:05pm EST) The Pittsburgh Pirates had their chance to close out this series at home on Monday and failed. Now they face the extremely difficult task of heading back to St. Louis in a deciding Game 5 against Adam Wainwright. He's a tough customer and has come up big in huge games for the Cardinals in the past. This Pirates team has a lot of grit and plays well beyond their talent level, but this is too much to ask. They're not quite ready to take a game this big, but it will be a great learning experience. Rookie Gerrit Cole will get the ball for Pittsburgh in this game. He pitched great in Game 2 of the series against the Cardinals, but this game is different. His team is counting on him and it's an enormous amount of pressure for a 23-year old. It wouldn't be surprising at all if he crumbles under the pressure, while the Cardinals expect Wainwright to pitch well. St. Louis also owns the second best home record in baseball at 54-27 and their crowd is going to be full of energy tonight. All signs point to the Pirates here.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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10-07-13 | Boston Red Sox v. Tampa Bay Rays +104 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 104 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #930 Tampa Bay Rays over Boston Red Sox (6:05pm EST) It's do or die time for the Tampa Bay Rays tonight, but they are accustomed to this scenario. They've already faced three elimination games since the last day of the regular season. They are obviously 3-for-3 in those games to get where they are today versus the Boston Red Sox. Big pitching performances have kept this team alive, and I fully expect them to get another one today from Alex Cobb. The young right-hander pitched very well in the AL Wild Card game against the Indians. Cobb was also one of the best pitchers in the AL down the stretch and finished the 2013 season at 11-3 with a 2.76 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. He'll get a tough assignment today versus the Red Sox, but the Rays have been very tough to beat in Tropicana Field. They finished the season 51-30 at home. The Red Sox counter with Clay Buchholz in this one, who has made just four starts since coming back from the disabled list. He looked ok in those starts, but nothing like he did earlier on in the season when he dominated. Cobb is certainly pitching better and that combined with the home field advantage makes this line in a little too low. Take the Rays to keep this series alive.
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10-07-13 | Oakland A's v. Detroit Tigers -148 | 6-3 | Loss | -148 | 1 h 35 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #932 Detroit Tigers over Oakland A's (1:05pm EST) Power pitchers win in the playoffs and today we have one of the best in the business in Anibal Sanchez. He doesn't get a ton of attention in Detroit due to the accolades that Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer have enjoyed the last couple of seasons, but Sanchez is the goods. At 14-8 with a 2.57 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, he could be Detroit's best pitcher right now. He has 34 punch outs over his last 23 2/3 innings and has seemingly been in a nice groove for the entire season. He'll face a tough Oakland lineup today, but he probably won't have to be perfect in this one. That's because the A's Jarrod Parker will be out there, and he's been struggling lately. In his last three outings, the right-hander has a robust 9.20 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. Those starts were against the Mariners, Twins and Angels - not exactly the cream of the crop offenses. Detroit will pose many more problems and they love hitting at home. The Tigers have been tough to beat in Comerica Park over the last few years, winning 50+ games at home in five straight seasons. The line on this game is a bit higher than we usually like playing, but all signs point to a Tigers victory today.
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10-05-13 | Tampa Bay Rays -111 v. Boston Red Sox | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -111 | 6 h 60 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #917 Tampa Bay Rays over Boston Red Sox (5:35pm EST) The Tampa Bay Rays look to even the series against the Boston Red Sox in Game 2 of the ALDS. David Price gets the ball for the Rays and he was sensational in the tiebreaker game against the Texas Rangers on Monday. As last year's Cy Young, everyone knows that Price can pitch. But he seems to be getting more comfortable with the spotlight and poised to reach the next level into elite status. He'll go up a very tough Red Sox lineup that put up 12 runs yesterday. However, Price has fared well against Boston in his career and he should get some more run support today. That's because John Lackey hasn't been pitching very well recently. Over his last four starts, Lackey posted a 5.33 ERA and his velocity has tapered off a bit from where it was mid-season. He also has had much success against the Rays' hitters, so I expect him to struggle again today. The Rays are a resilient bunch and they're not going to let yesterday's drubbing get to them. I think they even the series behind a strong performance from Price.
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10-04-13 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. Atlanta Braves +102 | 3-4 | Win | 102 | 5 h 28 m | Show | |
10-unit Play Take #912 Atlanta Braves over Los Angeles Dodgers (6:05pm EST) Game 2 of the NLDS gets underway this evening in Turner Field. The Dodgers easily took the first game of the series 6-1 behind a strong performance from Clayton Kershaw. We like the Dodgers a lot for this series, but today is a good spot for the Atlanta Braves to bounce back. They'll go up against a tough right-hander in Zack Greinke, but there are some good reasons why he may struggle a bit on the mound today. First off, Greinke is not nearly as good on the road as he is at home. In fact, he has one of the wider home/away splits in baseball over the last few seasons. Secondly, he's not necessarily known as a big game pitcher. He has struggled with stress and anxiety throughout his career and the spotlight will be bright on him in this one. Greinke also pitched poorly in three postseason starts with the Brewers, posting a miserable 6.48 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in 16 2/3 innings. The Braves are an all-or-nothing type of team, so if they can put the pressure on Greinke early on, this game could get ugly in a hurry. The Braves need this game badly as they don't want to go back to Los Angeles down 2-0 in the series. I think they get the job done against Greinke today at home where they were 56-25 this season.
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10-01-13 | Cincinnati Reds v. Pittsburgh Pirates -125 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 31 h 17 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #902 Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds (8:05pm EST) The playoffs have finally arrived and it begins with a National Wild Card game between the Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates on Tuesday night. These NL Central foes are certainly familiar with one another and they've also played six times over the last week and a half of the season. The Pirates won four of those six games and took the season series 11-8. The Pirates were also the better team this season, winning 94 games versus 90 for the Reds. That earned them home field advantage for this game, which was vitally important given their 50-31 home mark. The Pirates will also have the edge in the starting pitching department today, as Francisco Liriano goes up against Johnny Cueto. Liriano has been dominant this season at 16-8 with a 3.02 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 26 starts. Cueto was injured for most of the 2013 campaign and this will be only his third start since returning from the disabled list. He was pretty good in his last two starts, but you don't know what you're going to get from him in this pressure-packed game. All signs point to Pittsburgh today. They were the better team in the regular season, won the season series, are at home for this game and have an edge in the pitching matchup. Take the Pirates to advance at a relatively low price here.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-29-13 | Kansas City Royals v. Chicago White Sox -103 | 4-1 | Loss | -103 | 2 h 0 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #972 Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals (2:10pm EST) The2013 regular season has come to a close as some teams get ready for the playoffs and others look forward to some time off. The Chicago White Sox and Kansas City Royals fall into the latter category as they play their final game this afternoon. It was a good season for the Royals as they exceeded expectations and were in the playoff hunt all the way to the final week of the season. For the White Sox, it was a terrible season as they will finish with the second worst record in the American League. But none of that matters today in a meaningless game. Left-hander Jose Quintana goes up against Bruce Chen on the mound, and that's a huge advantage for Chicago. Quintana is one of the most underrated pitchers in the league and comes 9-6 with a 3.45 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 32 starts. On a better ballclub, Quintana would probably have 15+ victories and more fanfare. Chen has decent numbers on the surface, but his peripherals are not very good and he's been lucky to say the least. He' lucky his ERA isn't in the high 4's. Neither team has a vested interest in winning this game, so we'll go with the much better pitcher at home as a very small favorite. Take the White Sox.
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09-28-13 | New York Yankees -155 v. Houston Astros | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 19 h 48 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #923 New York Yankees at Houston Astros (7:10pm EST) It's a special day for the New York Yankees as Andy Pettitte makes his final start with the team before retiring. It's been a brilliant career for the left-hander and he certainly will get heavy consideration for the Hall of Fame. It will likely be another emotional scene for his teammates as they see another veteran hang up the spikes, just two days after sending off Mariano Rivera in his final Yankee Stadium appearance. Rivera actually may play some centerfield in this game - a special request that manager Joe Girardi has hinted would come to fruition. This should bring even more enthusiasm and emotion to the Yankees squad as they look to send off Pettitte with a win. The Houston Astros are the opponent and they've dropped a whopping 13 games in a row heading into today's contest. They are just 51-109 on the season and can't wait for the offseason to begin. Paul Clemens gets the ball for the Astros and he's had a difficult rookie season. He comes in 4-6 with a 5.69 ERA and 1.50 WHIP and most of his appearances have been out of the bullpen which makes his numbers even worse. The Yankees have been a hot and cold team offensively this season, but something tells me they'll get the job done today against Clemens. They'll be very motivated to get Pettitte that final victory and we'll take them here in a great spot.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-26-13 | Tampa Bay Rays -125 v. New York Yankees | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 29 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #911 Tampa Bay Rays over New York Yankees (7:05pm EST) Just four games remain in the regular season and the Tampa Bay Rays control their own destiny in capturing a wild card berth. They are currently in the lead by one and two games respectively over the Cleveland Indians and Texas Rangers and two teams will get a spot. So chances are good that we'll see the Rays in the postseason once again, but they still have to come through on the field. Today they go for a three-game sweep of the New York Yankees - a team that they eliminated on Wednesday. The pitching matchup is top notch Ivan Nova facing off against Alex Cobb. These are two of the more underrated pitchers in the AL and both are pitching well right now. I expect both to pitch well today, but the Yankees as a team may not be too fired up for this one. Over the last week or so, we've seen many teams roll over once eliminated and I think we may see the Yankees do so as well. The Rays are playing their best baseball of the season and have won six straight and 11 of 14. They've put the nails in the coffin on the Yankees season, and today they'll throw a little dirt on the grave.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-25-13 | Kansas City Royals v. Seattle Mariners -106 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #978 Seattle Mariners over Kansas City Royals (10:10pm EST) The Kansas City Royals have had a great season. They won't be in the postseason, but they certainly exceeded expectations this season and are relevant once again on the diamond. They technically aren't mathematically eliminated at 83-74, but they know it's not happening with three teams ahead of them and only five games left to make up a four game deficit. After yesterday's 4-0 loss, defeat probably began setting in and this team has to be deflated after a valiant effort to make a return to the postseason for the first time in 28 years. This is their last game in Seattle before heading on a plane back to Chicago to close out the season. The Mariners didn't have a great season, but they're better than most people think. They have a terrible 19-29 record in one run games and are just 6-15 in extra-inning games. They have several young players on the horizon and have improved throughout the season despite what their record indicates. Hisashi Iwakuma has established himself as one of the better starting pitchers in the AL and today he'll get one final start to cap off a great season. On a team that is 20 games under .500, Iwakuma checks in at 13-6 with a 2.76 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. He should have the advantage today against a Royals lineup that will probably be hanging their heads a little lower. Take the Mariners as our 10-unit Game.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-25-13 | Tampa Bay Rays -164 v. New York Yankees | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #971 Tampa Bay Rays (-160) over New York Yankees (7:05pm EST) The New York Yankees won't be playing in October this year as their chances were effectively squashed with Tampa Bay's 7-0 victory yesterday. The Yankees endured a lot of injuries this season, so they do have a legitimate excuse. However, the expectations are high in New York so the fans and media keep the pressure on every single day. That's going to make it tough to show up to the ballpark on Wednesday as they play out the last five games of the season. It will be even harder as they go up against the David Price and the Rays. Tampa is still trying to lock up a wild card spot and has won five straight games and 10 of 13. And Price has been amazing in the second half of the season. The Yankees also don't hit lefties as well, especially in Yankees Stadium. New York counters with righty Phil Hughes, who has struggled in Yankees Stadium his entire career due to his tendency to give up the long ball. The Rays need this game and the Yanks are getting the golf clubs ready. Take Tampa here.
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09-23-13 | Baltimore Orioles v. Tampa Bay Rays -126 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 3 h 57 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #964 Tampa Bay Rays over Baltimore Orioles (3:10pm EST) The Tampa Bay Rays can smell the playoffs. And after winning the first three games of their series against the Baltimore Orioles, they have a shot to knock out one of the teams they are battling against in the process. The O's have had trouble scoring runs in this series, as they've only been able to muster six total runs in 36 innings. That's not going to get it done and they probably have lost some of their focus after realizing that they're probably not going to get a chance to play in the postseason this year. Left-hander Wei-Yin Chen takes the ball for the O's. He's had a decent year at 7-7 with a 4.03 ERA, but the Rays love hitting against left-handers so he'll be up against it today. Tampa will counter with rookie Chris Archer, who has exceeded all expectations in his first season in the big leagues. He's 9-7 with a 3.02 ERA and has been improving after each start. He shut down the Orioles a couple of months ago in Tampa when he went seven innings and allowed just one run. I expect more of the same today as the Rays look to complete the four-game sweep. Tampa is 50-30 at home this season while Baltimore is under .500 on the road. I think the Rays get the job done today and inch one step closer to clinching a wild card spot.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-22-13 | Toronto Blue Jays +145 v. Boston Red Sox | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 8 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #919 Toronto Blue Jays over Boston Red Sox (1:35pm EST) The Boston Red Sox have the AL East all sewn up and may not be as fired up for this one as usual. They'll also have to face a tough pitcher in R.A. Dickey. It hasn't been a great season for the knuckleballer, but he's pitched much better over the last six weeks. He's still not the same pitcher that he was with the Mets, but the line on this game is pricing him like he's below average which is not the case. The Red Sox are also without one of their key cogs in Jacoby Ellsbury, who isn't returning until next week. The Jays lineup should get some decent cracks off of lefty Felix Doubront. He's really struggled of late, with a 7.71 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in his last three starts. In his last time out versus the Yankees, he allowed a season high six walks! The Jays have the better pitcher today and the Red Sox might just be coasting for the rest of the season. That puts us on the Blue Jays here today.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-21-13 | Toronto Blue Jays +135 v. Boston Red Sox | 4-2 | Win | 135 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #971 Toronto Blue Jays over Boston Red Sox (7:10pm EST) The Boston Red Sox just clinched the AL East title yesterday and there's a good chance we'll see plenty of bench players going in today's game. The players undoubtedly had a late night celebration last night, so the guys on the field also may be a little unfocused today as well. Mark Buehrle throws today for the Toronto Blue Jays and he is a true gamer. He always gives max effort and his competitiveness has taken him very far in his long career. After a slow start to the season, Buehrle has put together a strong second half. Since the All-Star break, the left-hander is 6-3 with a 3.10 ERA following a miserable first half where he was 5-6 with a 4.89 ERA. The Red Sox will trot out Clay Buchholz, who is making just his third start since returning from the disabled list. He has yet to allow an earned run since coming back, but he hasn't looked nearly as dominant as he did earlier in the season. The Blue Jays have some pop in their bats and I think they can put a few tallies on the board and beat a sluggish Red Sox team here.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-21-13 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Milwaukee Brewers +130 | 7-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 5 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #960 Milwaukee Brewers over St. Louis Cardinals (7:10pm EST) The season has long been over for the Milwaukee Brewers, but they are certainly still playing hard down the stretch. After an embarrassing first half and the fallout of the Ryan Braun scandal, the Brewers were written off by most. But they've responded quite well and are 9-6 in their last 15 games and are at .500 since the All-Star break. Today they'll try to play the spoiler role against the St. Louis Cardinals. Right-hander Yovani Gallardo goes for the Brew Crew and he's been a bit on an enigma this season. Overall it hasn't been a good year for Gallardo, but he can still dominate at times. He's been pretty sharp over the last month or so, with a 2.29 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. The Cardinals will counter with Lance Lynn, who is having the worst season of his young career. He's given up four earned runs or more in nearly half of his outings this season and has had some problems with his control. The Brewers have an underrated lineup and can still do some damage without Braun. They should put the pressure on Lynn and at least make this game interesting. And despite their poor home record this season, the Brewers have always been very solid in Miller Park. We'll go with Milwaukee as the home underdog with the more talented pitcher.
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09-21-13 | Chicago White Sox +128 v. Detroit Tigers | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 0 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #969 Chicago White Sox over Detroit Tigers (7:05pm EST) It's difficult to back the Chicago White Sox right now, but the one exception is when today's starter Chris Sale is on the hill. He's put up great numbers once again and has established himself as one of the best in the AL without much fanfare. He's faced the Detroit Tigers four times this season and the numbers have been gaudy. He's 3-1 with a 2.27 ERA and has a 33-6 K/BB ratio in 31 2/3 innings of work. Detroit's weakest starter Rick Porcello pitches for the Tigers today, so the meager White Sox offense has a chance to plate some runs in this one. Porcello is about as inconsistent as they come - dominating at times and getting rocked just as frequently. In his last three starts, he's pitched two games where he allowed just a single run and another where he yielded nine runs (eight earned). That pretty much sums up the career of Porcello, and he's not to be trusted as a favorite. The White Sox are a live underdog in this spot with one of the league's best throwing.
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09-20-13 | Cincinnati Reds v. Pittsburgh Pirates -110 | 6-5 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 58 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #908 Pittsburgh Pirates over Cincinnati Reds (7:05pm EST) The Pittsburgh Pirates have been downgraded a bit by the betting markets lately, and I'm not sure that it's warranted. Yes they have coughed up the lead in the NL Central, but they haven't been playing terribly lately. They are 11-9 in their last 20 games and have played some tough opponents during that stretch including the Cardinals twice, the Rangers and a Brewers team that is playing better lately. The Cincinnati Reds come to town today for an important three-game series that could ultimately end up deciding the division and wild card. The teams are currently the top two in the wild card race, with one game separating them. Today's pitching matchup is a good one with Francisco Liriano going up against Mat Latos. Both have been the best pitchers on their respective team this season, but I give a slight edge to Liriano because he's been more dominant in some of his outings. He also is the kind of pitcher that rises to the occasion in a big spot like today. Both teams have strong bullpens and can hit the ball, so the one game margin in the standings is legitimate. However, the Pirates are a robust 49-29 at home this season while the Reds are below .500 on the road. With the better starting pitcher and home field advantage, I think the line on this game is just a tad short. Take Pittsburgh in this one.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-19-13 | Los Angeles Dodgers +102 v. Arizona Diamondbacks | 7-6 | Win | 102 | 4 h 42 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #959 Los Angeles Dodgers over Arizona Diamondbacks (3:40pm EST) The Los Angeles Dodgers have certainly cooled off after their record-breaking run. They are just 4-10 in their last 14 games, but that doesn't take away what this team has accomplished in 2013. Despite having more pressure on them than any other team in baseball, the Dodgers still have a 9.5 game lead in the division and are the favorites to win the World Series at most sportsbooks. And now they have former NL MVP Matt Kemp in the lineup after missing two months of action. He will certainly make this lineup even more dangerous, which is hard to imagine. The Dodgers already have the best lineup in the NL on a park-adjusted basis. Starter Ricky Nolasco got banged around in his last start, but before that he was one of the hottest pitchers in the league. He has shown more confidence pitching with the Dodgers than he has during his entire career and I expect him to bounce right back today. The Arizona Diamondbacks go with lefty Wade Miley. He's had a decent season overall, but he isn't dominant and won't win the ballgame by himself. The Dodgers have the best road record in the NL and I think they get the job done today.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-18-13 | Cleveland Indians -109 v. Kansas City Royals | 2-7 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
5-unit Play Take #927 Cleveland Indians over Kansas City Royals (8:10pm EST) Young right-hander Danny Salazar has the potential to be a star. In his first eight starts at the major league level he has a 2.66 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 40 2/3 innings. But more impressive is his ridiculous strikeout rate of 12.0 per nine innings. That would be good enough for best in the league if he qualified and he's still learning how to pitch. He'll face the Kansas City Royals for the first time in this one, and that could be a problem for a mediocre Royals lineup. Kansas City is just 11th in the AL in runs scored and are ranked last in on base percentage. They'll need a great effort today from Bruce Chen to have a chance to win, and that is a tall order. Chen has a solid 3.11 ERA in 31 appearances this season, but most of those were out of the pen. He also has terrible peripheral statistics and should have an ERA very close to 5.00 this season. He sports one of the lowest groundball rates in baseball at just 28% and is only striking out 5.9 batters per nine innings. The Indians have a very balanced lineup that has been in the top half of the league for the whole season and are currently 6th in runs scored. They should get some good knocks off of Chen and chase him out early. It's a bit surprising that the Indians are an even bet in this one, but we'll take it as our 5-unit Game.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-18-13 | Atlanta Braves v. Washington Nationals -105 | 5-2 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 34 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #904 Washington Nationals (+100) over Atlanta Braves (7:05pm EST) The Washington Nationals are 21-5 in their last 26 games and are fresh off a doubleheader sweep of the Atlanta Braves yesterday. They are clearly as focused as they've been all year, and deserve a strong look every day from here on out. Today they go up against Braves rookie Alex Wood. The young left-hander looked good earlier in the season, but the league is clearly making adjustments. In his last three starts he has a 7.82 ERA and a hideous 2.45 WHIP that includes nine walks in 12 2/3 innings. He obviously isn't right and the Braves are just letting get in some work as they have things pretty much wrapped up in the division. The Nats counter with right-hander Ross Ohlendorf today. He's 4-0 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.21 WHIP on the season and has been effective in filling in where needed. This is another huge game for Washington and basically a meaningless one for Atlanta. We'll take the red hot Nats at home today with the underdog price.
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09-17-13 | Texas Rangers v. Tampa Bay Rays -123 | 7-1 | Loss | -123 | 6 h 19 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #972 Tampa Bay Rays over Texas Rangers (7:10pm EST) The Texas Rangers are reeling and it's coming at the worst possible time. They've dropped seven straight and now have four other teams within 2.5 games of them in the AL wild card race with just two weeks remaining. We've been saying it most of the season, but this Texas team is overrated mainly due to their weak offense. Their numbers don't look bad on paper, but they play in a hitter-friendly park that masks the truth. It's finally catching up with them and there's now a good chance that they'll be on the outside looking in when it's all said and done. Texas is just 19-18 since the Nelson Cruz suspension and have failed to homer in 17 of the 37 games. Tampa Bay is great at home with an outstanding 46-28 mark on the season. They are slightly better than Texas in just about every phase of the game and I like the pitching matchup for them today. Texas start Alexi Ogando has been pitching out of the bullpen lately and will be making his first start in over a month. Jeremy Hellickson goes for the Rays and he's looked better after some shaky starts recently. Take the Rays here.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-17-13 | Atlanta Braves v. Washington Nationals -129 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 12 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #952 Washington Nationals over Atlanta Braves (7:05pm EST) The Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals will play two today after the horrific incident in Washington D.C. yesterday. It should be an emotional day for Washington fans and players, which could give the team a bit of an edge today. We're focusing on Game 2 of the doubleheader for a couple of reasons. First off, the Braves have the division locked up and will probably be looking to rest a few guys on the back end. There's no reason to wear anyone down with the playoffs just two weeks away. For the Nats, these games are virtually must wins. They are still five games back in the wild card chase and can't afford too many more losses. There's no question manager Davey Johnson will utilize the lineup that gives his team the best chance to win, including the best arms out of the bullpen. That Nats also get to face veteran Freddy Garcia in the nightcap. Garcia is 37-years old and really doesn't belong in the league anymore. He is 4-6 this season with a hefty 4.86 ERA and a significantly decreasing strikeout rate of only 4.5 per nine innings. Washington has been swinging the bats better of late and could bounce Garcia very early. That could spell trouble in a doubleheader where Atlanta will surely use some of their weaker arms to avoid wear and tear. The Nats are 19-6 in their last 25 games and I think they win the second game of the doubleheader against the Braves today.
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09-15-13 | Oakland A's +100 v. Texas Rangers | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #975 Oakland A's (-110) over Texas Rangers (3:05pm EST) The Oakland A's are leaning heavily on the Texas Rangers and are ready to put the nails in the coffin on the American League West division crown in 2013. On paper this Oakland team doesn't appear to be anything special. But General Manager Billy Beane has done another masterful job putting together a complete team with players other teams didn't want. Call it Moneyball or just plain advanced scouting, but the A's have made shrewd personnel decisions to compete with the big boys with a limited payroll. Today they send a great example Jarrod Parker to the hill. Parker is 11-6 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 29 starts this season. Those are great numbers and especially impressive given how badly he started the year. After seven starts, he was 1-4 with a 7.34 ERA and was nearly demoted to the minor leagues. But since then he's been one of the best pitchers in the league and someone that the A's can count on in each and every start. In fact, he's given up more than three earned runs just once in 22 starts since that horrid beginning. The Rangers lineup isn't what it used to be when they had Josh Hamilton, Mike Napoli and Nelson Cruz. All of their offensive numbers are just average on a park-adjusted basis. Parker should be able to keep them at bay and put a stranglehold on the division with a victory in this one. Take Oakland here.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-13-13 | Tampa Bay Rays -157 v. Minnesota Twins | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #977 Tampa Bay Rays over Minnesota Twins (1:10pm EST) The Tampa Bay Rays have a slim lead in the wild card race at the moment, so they really need to take advantage of the fact that they get the Minnesota Twins this weekend. The Twins are looking ahead for next season and are trying to improve their rebuilding efforts. They recently traded away Justin Morneau, which was a tough decision but one that had to be made. They've also been tinkering with the lineup to get some playing time to the younger guys to see what they can do. Joe Mauer is also out with a concussion, which makes an already weak lineup even uglier. That should make life for Chris Archer much easier as he looks to continue his great rookie campaign. The 24-year old right-hander is 8-7 with a 3.19 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 19 starts this season. He's got great stuff and you can see his confidence growing in each start as he learns how to attack major league hitters. The Twins will counter with righty Kevin Correia today. He's put up his typical mediocre numbers this season, coming in at 9-11 with a 4.30 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. He pitches to contact, which suits the Tampa Bay lineup well. This is another great situation where one team cares more about this individual game than the other. The Rays need this and we'll see manager Joe Maddon doing everything in his power to get the victory.
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09-13-13 | New York Yankees +128 v. Boston Red Sox | 4-8 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #971 New York Yankees over Boston Red Sox (7:10pm EST) Every game matters from here on out for the New York Yankees. They are right in the middle of the wild card race in the American League with just two weeks left in the regular season. Their rival the Boston Red Sox have already sewn things up in the division with a huge lead. They also have a nice cushion for home field advantage, so they might not be as focused for this series as they usually are. John Lackey goes for Boston today and he was smacked around by the Yankees pretty good in his last start. He surrendered seven earned runs in just 5 2/3 innings, but lucked out and was able to pick up a win. Hiroki Kuroda, meanwhile, pitched great in his last outing against the Red Sox and has a great track record against them in his career. The Yankees have been a completely different team since getting back Curtis Granderson, Alex Rodriguez and trading for Alfonso Soriano. They now have a somewhat dangerous lineup and aren't completely reliant on the pitching staff to dominate. They have the edge in the bullpen as well, with Robertson and Rivera working the late innings. This game should be tight with two quality starting pitchers, so the bullpens could decide it. I like the Yankees at this underdog price.
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09-12-13 | Washington Nationals -155 v. New York Mets | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 1 h 42 m | Show | |
1-unit Play Take #903 Washington Nationals over New York Mets (1:10pm EST) We've cashed in on the Washington Nationals for three straight days against the New York Mets and we'll look to make it four this afternoon. As we've mentioned, the Nats are playing great baseball and are 16-5 in their last 21 games. They are now just six games from the wild card and are starting to believe that they can do this. The Mets have been playing for next season for quite some time, inserting younger players into the lineup. One guy that isn't young is right-hander Aaron Harang, who they just picked up from the Seattle Mariners. Harang couldn't make it in Seattle, so this is a curious move by the Mets. For the Mariners he was 5-11 with a 5.76 ERA in 22 starts. The Nationals have been swinging the bats very well during their hot stretch, so I'd be surprised if Harang makes it past the fifth inning. That will lead to a vulnerable Mets bullpen and more possible damage. The Nats should get the four-game sweep here.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-11-13 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Los Angeles Dodgers -121 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -121 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #964 Los Angeles Dodgers over Arizona Diamondbacks (10:10pm EST) The Los Angeles Dodgers have come back to earth a bit after a torrid run, but this is still the most complete team in all of baseball. They have one of the best lineups in the league, a great bullpen and the best 1-2-3 top of the rotation pitchers. The #3 guy in that rotation is left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu. He doesn't get as much attention as Kershaw and Greinke do, but Ryu has eclipsed expectations in his first season in the major leagues. He comes in 13-5 with a 3.02 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 26 starts. He knows how to attack hitters and is adept and keeping the ball on the ground and avoiding the home run ball. He'll face an Arizona Diamondbacks team that has just fallen out of contention recently. They're probably not in the best state of mind at the moment, so the Dodgers are catching them at the perfect time. The Dodgers are 45-28 at home this season, while the D-backs have struggled on the road. These last couple of weeks are important for playoff positioning and home field advantage, so I expect the Dodgers to get back on the winning track. Take them today at a very reasonable price at home.
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09-11-13 | Washington Nationals -120 v. New York Mets | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #959 Washington Nationals over New York Mets (7:10pm EST) This is the time of year that teams are heading in one of two directions. They are either making that final playoff push or looking ahead to next season. The Nationals are barely hanging on in the NL wild card race, but they're still playing hard. They've won 15 of 20 and feel like they have an outside chance to get back into this thing. The New York Mets, on the other hand, are clearly looking ahead to their future. They've been playing several young guys on a daily basis and are missing their superstar David Wright. The Nationals won the first two games of this series with relative ease, and they have a great chance to do it again today as small favorites.
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09-10-13 | Pittsburgh Pirates +123 v. Texas Rangers | 5-4 | Win | 123 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #929 Pittsburgh Pirates over Texas Rangers (8:05pm EST) The Pittsburgh Pirates and Texas Rangers hooked up in a classic pitcher's duel yesterday in Arlington with the Pirates coming out on top 1-0. The Rangers don't get shut out at home very often, but there's a chance it could happen again tonight. Francisco Liriano starts for the Pirates and he's put together a fantastic come back season in 2013. He comes in 15-7 with a 2.98 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 22 starts. He's really learned how to pitch this season instead of just throwing, and looks as confident as ever on the hill. The Rangers struggle with left-handed pitching as it is, so they are going to be up against it versus Liriano. Martin Perez will try to keep his team in the game with the understanding that he'll need his very best stuff. The Pirates lineup has been good all season, but it's even better now with the additions of Marlon Byrd and Justin Morneau. You don't see Liriano with an underdog price tag attached very often, so now's the time to take advantage. Take Pittsburgh here.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-10-13 | Boston Red Sox v. Tampa Bay Rays -135 | 2-0 | Loss | -135 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #922 Tampa Bay Rays over Boston Red Sox (7:10pm EST) It's the first start back tonight for Clay Buchholz of the Boston Red Sox. He's been out for over three months with a shoulder injury, so we can't be exactly sure what to expect from him tonight. He could be his old self, but chances are that he'll show a bit of rust and make a few mistake pitches. If that's the case, the underrated Tampa Bay Rays lineup should be able to make him pay. This is a huge series for the Rays as they return home after a miserable 3-6 road trip. They are now just 1.5 games ahead in the wild card race and have four teams within four games of them. They are much more comfortable in Tropicana Field, where they boast a 44-26 mark on the season. They'll also have their ace David Price on the hill for this one. He's coming off of a rough outing in which he surrendered six earned runs, so he'll want to redeem himself today. This series is much bigger for the Rays and I like their chances to get the W today at home with their best pitcher throwing.
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09-10-13 | Washington Nationals -135 v. New York Mets | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #955 Washington Nationals over New York Mets (7:10pm EST) The Washington Nationals are 14-5 in their last 19 games and feel like they still have a shot to grab a wild card spot. They are currently seven games back of the Reds and eight behind the Pirates. It would be a long shot, but they are playing their best baseball of the season right now. Right-hander Jordan Zimmermann goes for them today and he's been the Nats most consistent starter this season at 16-8 with a 3.30 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. He'll go up against a New York Mets lineup that is playing lots of young guys right now and is without their star David Wright. The Mets are looking ahead to the future and winning isn't the most important thing right now. That was evident yesterday when Washington crushed the Mets 9-0 in the series opener. I expect to see more of that the entire series, so we're on the Nationals once again here.
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09-09-13 | Washington Nationals -143 v. New York Mets | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #955 Washington Nationals over New York Mets (7:10pm EST) The Washington Nationals have long been written off after coming into the season with high expectations. But while they're chances are very slim at eight games back in the wild card race, the team still feels like they can make it happen. They're playing their best baseball of the season right now and are 13-5 in their last 18 contests. They're heading into New York for an important four-game series with the Mets in which they realistically need all four games to stay in the race with just three weeks left in the regular season. Gio Gonzalez gets the ball for them today and he's had a great season at 9-6 with a 3.49 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 28 starts. The biggest problem for the Nats this season has been scoring runs. However, over the last 18 games they've averaged 5.4 runs per game. Now that the bats have woken up, this is one of the most dangerous teams in baseball - the team everyone expected all along. However, the prices in the betting markets haven't quite caught up yet. Today we'll take Washington at a reasonable price with a big edge on the mound.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-08-13 | Pittsburgh Pirates +130 v. St. Louis Cardinals | 2-9 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 8 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #907 Pittsburgh Pirates over St. Louis Cardinals (2:15pm EST) The Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals have been neck and neck for the last couple of months in the NL Central. The perception out there is that the Cardinals are the better team and are the favorites to take home the division. However, while the Cardinals look better on paper, I give the slight edge to the Pirates for several reasons. First off, the Pirates play the ultimate team baseball. They do all of the little things that sometimes don't show up in the box score like good defense, solid baserunning and smart managerial decisions. They also have one of the best bullpens in all of baseball, which has allowed them to hold onto several close games this season. It's rare that the Pirates have a bullpen meltdown or some fundamental gaffe out in the field. They make the other team beat them and that's why they are 81-60 this season. Winning this division from the Cardinals and Reds isn't going to be easy, but today's game is huge. They are 0.5 games back with just three weeks remaining and this is their last game versus St. Louis. Right-hander Charlie Morton goes today and he's been one of the most underrated pitchers in the league this season. You don't hear a lot about him, but he's 7-3 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 15 starts on the 2013 campaign. He's as consistent as they come, allowing more than three earned runs just twice in those 15 outings. On the other side is rookie Michael Wacha. He's pitched out of the bullpen and has started a handful of games this season as well. He has pretty good numbers, but it's going to get tougher on him as the league sees him for a second and third time. I give the Pirates the edge on the mound today and that means that the line on this game is a bit too high. Take Pittsburgh here.
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09-07-13 | New York Mets v. Cleveland Indians -156 | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show | |
1-unit Play Take #980 Cleveland Indians over New York Mets (6:05pm EST) We outlined it well yesterday and will reiterate it again today. American League teams have beaten up on National League teams once again this season. It hasn't been talked about much in 2013 due to the new scheduling dynamics, but the AL has once again shown its dominance. It's been even more pronounced in AL parks where the NL has inserted incompetent designated hitters into the lineup. NL teams just don't have that extra hitter and it's usually someone who doesn't deserve to be playing. That's the case again today for the New York Mets, who are already down their best hitter in David Wright. The Mets are playing lots of younger players and looking ahead to next season. That put the Cleveland Indians in a great spot today. Corey Kluber will face that weak lineup who could only muster one run on seven hits yesterday against Scott Kazmir. The Mets also struck out 15 times in that game and were clearly confused at the plate on several occasions. Kluber has good stuff and I fully expect to see some of the same looks today. The Indians should win this one with ease.
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09-06-13 | Washington Nationals +122 v. Miami Marlins | 0-7 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #905 Washington Nationals over Miami Marlins (7:10pm EST) The Miami Marlins clearly have the pitching edge today against the Washington Nationals, but that's not enough to warrant them being this big of a favorite today. Jose Fernandez may be on his way to winning the Rookie of the Year award, but the Marlins still have the worst offense in all of baseball by a wide margin and they struggle once they get to the bullpen. Starting pitching is certainly important, but it's one of the most overrated aspects of baseball handicapping. The other team aspects (including fundamentals and defense) are significant and Washington has the edge in every other phase of the game. In addition, outside of one bad outing, today's starter Dan Haren has been excellent over the last six weeks. He should keep Washington in the game and give them a great shot and getting the win at a nice underdog price.
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09-06-13 | New York Mets v. Cleveland Indians -162 | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 18 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #930 Cleveland Indians over New York Mets (7:05pm EST) American League teams have beaten up on National League teams once again this season. It hasn't been talked about much in 2013 due to the new scheduling dynamics, but the AL has once again shown its dominance. It's been even more pronounced in AL parks where the NL has inserted incompetent designated hitters into the lineup. NL teams just don't have that extra hitter and it's usually someone batting somewhere around .200 or so. That's the case today for the New York Mets, who are already down their best hitter in David Wright. The Mets are playing lots of younger players and looking ahead to next season. That should make it easier on today's starter Scott Kazmir, who has been inconsistent this season. He can dominate at times and implode at other times. But with a weak hitting Mets lineup in front of him, I think we'll see the good Kazmir today. Zack Wheeler goes for the Mets and he's pitched pretty well in his rookie season. However, this will probably be the toughest lineup he has seen this season. The only other outing he had in an AL park was against the White Sox, where he surrendered four runs in just 5 1/3 innings of work. He's going to be a good one, but he'll get touched up from time to time as he learns how to pitch in this league. The Indians have been amazing at home this season with a 42-27 record, and I expect them to get the job done today against a weak NL club in the Mets.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-06-13 | Boston Red Sox v. New York Yankees +107 | 12-8 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 17 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #916 New York Yankees over Boston Red Sox (7:05pm EST) The top rivalry in baseball takes place tonight as the New York Yankees host the Boston Red Sox. Both teams have been playing very well lately, but the transformation is much bigger for the Yanks. This team is markedly better after getting back Curtis Granderson, Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez from injury in addition to the big trade for Alfonso Soriano. Their lineup has gone from abysmal to one that can put up some big innings when they need it. Last night they put up a six spot on the board in the seventh inning to give the Yankees an 8-7 lead. Unfortunately Mariano Rivera couldn't hold on at the Red Sox won it in extra innings, but it the offense showed up. At home with Andy Pettitte on the mound, I think the Yankees should be the favorites against an inconsistent Felix Doubront. These southpaws have comparable numbers on the season, but this is a big game and Pettitte has always stepped up in the spotlight. Take the Yankees tonight.
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09-05-13 | Chicago White Sox +150 v. Baltimore Orioles | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
1-unit Play Take #959 Chicago White Sox over Baltimore Orioles (7:05pm EST) The Chicago White Sox head to Baltimore to take on the Orioles in the series opener today. Left-hander Jose Quintana goes for Chicago and I like what this kid has done so far in his young career. In 50 major league starts over the last two years he is 13-11 with a 3.73 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. He doesn't strike out a ton of batters, but can dial it up when he needs to. He also has really good control at his age and knows how to attack each hitter. He doesn't get properly valued in the betting markets because of the team he plays for, but he's definitely an above average starting pitcher. Miguel Gonzalez goes for the O's and he's been a little shaky of late. In his last start he surrendered seven runs in just four innings of work against the Yankees. Before that he spent some time in the bullpen as Baltimore wasn't quite sure what to do with him. He has good stuff, but he's had trouble avoiding the big inning and is clearly still learning how to pitch at the big league level. The White Sox don't have a great offense, but they do have some pop in the lineup and Gonzalez has given up his fair share of long balls this season. The Orioles win this game more times than they lose it, but the price is just a little too high here. Take the White Sox.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-05-13 | Seattle Mariners +160 v. Kansas City Royals | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 23 m | Show | |
1-unit Play Take #955 Seattle Mariners over Kansas City Royals (2:10pm EST) The Kansas City Royals host the Seattle Mariners in the final game of their four game set today in Kaufman Stadium. The first three games of this series have been hotly contested and were each decided by two runs or less. But once again the price on the Royals is a bit inflated and we can only look to Seattle here. Neither starting pitcher really deserves to be in a starting rotation, so this game will come down to which offense can take advantage. And when you stack up the hitters on each team, the Mariners have the edge. Yes the Royals have scored slightly more runs this season, but the M's play in the most pitcher-friendly park in baseball. On a park-adjusted basis, the M's are actually one of the top offenses in the American League. They have a great middle of the order and are fourth in home runs this season. Running the numbers, this game should be priced somewhere in the 120-130 range, so we have plenty of value with Seattle here.
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09-04-13 | Los Angeles Dodgers +110 v. Colorado Rockies | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #961 Los Angeles Dodgers over Colorado Rockies (8:40pm EST) Once again the Los Angeles Dodgers are getting disrespected in the betting markets. They are 53-13 in their last 66 games (one of the greatest runs in baseball history), but they find themselves as underdogs to the Colorado Rockies for the second straight day. They took care of the Rockies 7-4 last night and they should do it again tonight. Newly acquired starting pitcher Edinson Volquez will go for Los Angeles in this game. He struggled with the Padres this season, but has excellent stuff and can dominate at times. All he needs is more confidence and there is plenty of that to go around on this Dodgers ballclub. They are the most confident team in baseball right now and have some strong personalities who have brought a lot of energy to the team every day. That should benefit Volquez greatly and I expect to see him perform at a high level for Los Angeles down the stretch. The Rockies are playing a lot of their younger guys as they look ahead to the future. That should make things easier on Volquez and get him comfortable in a tough ballpark to pitch in. The Dodgers are a freight train right now and shouldn't be an underdog to a team that is 10 games under .500 this season. Take Los Angeles once again.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-03-13 | Los Angeles Dodgers -108 v. Colorado Rockies | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #961 Los Angeles Dodgers over Colorado Rockies (8:40pm EST) The Los Angeles Dodgers just keep on winning. It's happening so frequently that it's no longer a top baseball story, but it should be. The Dodgers are 52-13 in their last 65 games, which is one of the best streaks of all time in the major leagues. The betting markets have slowly adjusted to the strength of the Dodgers, but not enough. Today they are small favorites against a Rockies team that has given up on its season. Colorado is just 19-24 since the All-Star break and is looking ahead to its future. Several younger players have been getting at bats to see what they have, and the Rockies are also dealing with some big injuries. Carlos Gonzalez and Dexter Fowler are out and Troy Tulowitzki has been banged up lately as well. They'll have a depleted lineup in their today to face a red hot Ricky Nolasco. Over his last five outings, Nolasco is 4-0 with a 1.08 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. This is the best stretch of his career and clearly the Dodgers have pushed the right buttons with him. Pitching in Coors Field is difficult, but more manageable with a weaker Rockies lineup today. Even if Nolasco were to struggle, the Dodgers can pick him up like they did yesterday when Kershaw struggled. The Dodgers are the most complete team in baseball and they should get the job done again today.
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09-03-13 | Seattle Mariners +155 v. Kansas City Royals | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #971 Seattle Mariners over Kansas City Royals (8:10pm EST) Bruce Chen pitches for the Kansas City Royals and is a heavy favorite against the Seattle Mariners today. I'm willing to bet that Chen hasn't been a -160 favorite too many times in his career and he's not even pitching well right now. In his last three starts he is 1-2 with an 8.59 ERA and 1.77 WHIP and has walked more batters than he has struck out. The Mariners have an underrated lineup and I expect them to put some runs on the board in this one. Chen's been pitching out of the bullpen in mop up duty for most of this season, and there's a good reason for it. Erasmo Ramirez gets the ball for the M's and he has a lot of upside. He throws hard and has been getting better with each start this season. In his last three outings he has a 2.33 ERA and 1.09 WHIP and has been doing a better job of keeping the ball on the ground. These teams are much more even than the betting line indicates and I think the starting pitching matchup favors the M's. Take Seattle today in a grossly inflated price.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-02-13 | Tampa Bay Rays -116 v. Los Angeles Angels | 2-11 | Loss | -116 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
1-unit Play Take #927 Tampa Bay Rays over Los Angeles Angels (9:05pm EST) Things are starting to get a little dicey for the Tampa Bay Rays. They were just swept by the Oakland A's and have now dropped seven of eight games overall. They're barely hanging on to the second wild card spot and there are several teams within striking distance. Luckily for the Rays, they are headed to Anaheim to take on an Angel's team that doesn't have anything to play for anymore. It's been a horrific season for the Angels and they can't wait for it to end. Both of today's starting pitchers hold a lot of promise for the future. Chris Archer takes on Garrett Richards and I like what I've seen from both of them this season. However, Archer has a much higher ceiling and is capable of dominating a game. He shut down this same Angels team last time out, allowing just one run in seven innings while striking out five and walking no one. Richards faced Tampa in that start as well, and he couldn't make it out of the third inning. He gave up four runs and walked three batters in taking the loss. Today's game shouldn't be much different except for the venue. The Angels have one of the worst home records in baseball and it must be embarrassing for them to show up in front of their fans at this point. Albert Pujols and Howie Kendrick are also out of action and that makes things even tougher on them. Take Tampa Bay in this one.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-31-13 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Pittsburgh Pirates -125 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #906 Pittsburgh Pirates over St. Louis Cardinals (7:05pm EST) The Pittsburgh Pirates came through in a big way yesterday to tie the St. Louis Cardinals for first in the NL Central. Today they'll go at it again in front of a packed PNC Park. The Pirates fans are back after years of misery and this team now has plenty of swagger. Right-hander A.J. Burnett gets the ball for the Pirates today and he's been rock solid all season long despite the team not supporting him with runs. He's only 6-9, but has a 3.18 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 24 starts this season. He has one of the better groundball rates in the league and that has helped him get out of some jams when needed. The Cardinals put a lot of men on base, so that should come in handy in this one. St. Louis sends Lance Lynn to the hill to face the Pirates. He's had an up and down year and I'm not crazy about what I've seen from on the mound lately. The Pirates have been terrific at home this season at 44-24, which is second best in the NL. This game is for sole possession of first place and I like Pittsburgh's chances to get it done again in this one.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-30-13 | Miami Marlins +126 v. Atlanta Braves | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
1-unit Play Take #957 Miami Marlins (+125) over Atlanta Braves (7:35pm EST) The Atlanta Braves are much better than the Miami Marlins, but starting pitcher is the great equalizer in baseball. And the Marlins have one of the better ones in baseball with youngster Jose Fernandez. The 21-year old rookie has had a spectacular season at 10-5 with a 2.30 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 25 starts. He'll go up against another successful rookie in Julio Teheran today. Teheran is 10-7 with a 3.08 ERA and 1.20 WHIP, slightly worse numbers than Fernandez. But Fernandez can absolutely dominate a game unlike many pitchers in the game. That quality can't be taught and is why he could go on to have a long and successful career in the major leagues. The Braves lineup swings for the fences, but also strikes out a lot. Those are the kind of teams that are really going to struggle against Fernandez. Atlanta may also be without one of their best hitters Justin Upton today. He has an injured hand and is questionable as of right now. The Braves have also thrown closer Craig Kimbrel three straight days (all saves), so he is likely unavailable today unless it's an emergency. That means the Marlins will actually have a chance in the late innings in case they are tied or trailing in a close game. This game should be very close and we'll lean to the dog in that case. Take the Marlins.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-30-13 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Pittsburgh Pirates -120 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
1-unit Play Take #954 Pittsburgh Pirates (-120) over St. Louis Cardinals (7:05pm EST) Another big showdown kicks off in Pittsburgh tonight as the Pirates host the St. Louis Cardinals to begin a three-game set. These teams are separate by just one game in the standings and the Reds aren't far behind them either. Francisco Liriano pitched a complete game one-run effort against the Cardinals two weeks ago and he'll get the chance to do it again today. St. Louis struggles against left-handers and Liriano is about as nasty as they come from the left-hand side. Rookie Shelby Miller takes the ball for the Cards. He's put together a very nice rookie campaign but you have to wonder if he's running out of gas a little bit. He's up to 140 innings, which is about the mark he hit in each of the last two seasons spent in the minor leagues. The Cards are going to watch him close and don't be surprised if they keep his pitch counts a little bit lower the rest of the season. That means we could see more of the St. Louis bullpen, which should benefit the Pirates. The pen is one area where Pittsburgh has a huge advantage over the Cardinals, along with their stellar defensive play. The Pirates do all of the little things to win games and I like their chances at home with their best pitcher throwing. Take them as a small favorite here.
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08-28-13 | San Francisco Giants -103 v. Colorado Rockies | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #961 San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies (8:40pm EST) The season has long been over for the San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies. The defending World Series champs fell well short of expectations in 2013, but one bright spots continues to be left-hander Madison Bumgarner. He comes in 11-8 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.04 WHIP - his best season yet as a major leaguer. He'll get a tough assignment today pitching in Coors Field, but the Rockies offense has been as good lately and is without Carlos Gonzalez. On the other side is right-hander Jhoulys Chacin. The 25-year old has put up the best numbers of his career as well, but he's not at the level of a Bumgarner yet. His peripheral statistics show a pitcher who is about a run worse than his ERA indicates. The Rockies offense is also a bit overrated due to the inflation of Coors Field. They are a middle of the pack hitting team that looks a lot better on paper than they really are. Their biggest problem is on defense, where they are at the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency. That doesn't do their pitchers any favors and is even more frustrating in a big park like Coors Field. The Giants are the better team and have the favorable pitching matchup today. Take San Francisco here.
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08-27-13 | Cincinnati Reds -116 v. St. Louis Cardinals | 1-6 | Loss | -116 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #907 Cincinnati Reds over St. Louis Cardinals (8:15pm ET) We've done well fading the St. Louis Cardinals, and there's no reason to stop now. The Cincinnati Reds are in town and they will give the Cards some problems. Cincinnati is a much better team than they were earlier in the season when they were without Ryan Ludwick and Ryan Hanigan. They've won 13 of 20 and are now just three games back in the National League Central division. Mat Latos gets the nod today. He's put together a banner year at 13-4 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 26 starts. He's easily been the most consistent pitcher for the Reds and always gives his team a chance to win. The Cardinals have a great lineup, but they've struggled a bit over the last few weeks and are coming back to earth after an unsustainable first half of the season. St. Louis may be pressured to score some runs in this one with Joe Kelly going for them. Kelly wasn't supposed to be in the rotation, but has been forced into action with injuries. He's put up decent numbers, but most of that was out of the bullpen and I expect him to struggle as a starter long-term with the stuff he has. The Reds are the better team right now and they have a huge pitching edge today. Take Cincinnati.
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08-27-13 | Cleveland Indians +126 v. Atlanta Braves | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #929 Cleveland Indians over Atlanta Braves (7:10pm ET) There are a lot of young budding stars in the starting pitching ranks. Matt Harvey, Jose Fernandez, Julio Teheran and Shelby Miller are some of the big names that everyone is now familiar with. One name that has the potential to be on that list in the next year is Indians pitcher Danny Salazar. The strong right-hander is only 23 years old, but he touches 100mph on the radar gun with regularity. He dominated the minor leagues over the last few years and has pitched very well in his first four starts at the major league level. He has a 3.52 ERA and 0.96 WHIP and is striking out a whopping 11.4 batters per nine innings. He's still learning to pitch, but his stuff is so good that he's getting by just fine learning on the job. Today he'll face an Atlanta Braves team that is a little beaten up. Jason Heyward, Dan Uggla and a few others are on the disabled list at the moment. The Braves have only averaged 3.3 runs per game in their last dozen contests. They are an all or nothing kind of team at the plate, and right not it's basically nothing. Rookie left-hander Alex Wood goes for the Braves and he's had some pretty impressive numbers of his own. However, he doesn't have as good as stuff as Salazar and most of his innings have been out of the bullpen this season. The Tribe hits left-handers well, so I expect them to put some pressure on Wood today. Take the Indians at the underdog price here.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-26-13 | Texas Rangers v. Seattle Mariners +128 | 8-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #968 Seattle Mariners over Texas Rangers (10:10pm ET) Tough spot here for the Texas Rangers as they fly in from Chicago into the Northwest to play the Seattle Mariners. It's an even tougher flight considering they lost to the last-placed White Sox on Sunday and dropped two of three in the series. Texas has been a powerhouse team in the American League for quite some time, but this is one of their weaker ballclubs in recent memory. Their lineup isn't nearly as scary as it used to be without Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz and Mike Napoli. They've survived this season with good pitching, but today they're not sure what they will get. Left-hander Travis Blackley will get his first start with the Rangers. He's pitched out of the bullpen this season for the Astros, but was recently acquired by Texas to give them some depth. In 43 appearances this season, he has a 4.85 ERA out of the pen. That's an awful ERA for even a starting pitcher and even worse for a guy that generally comes in for one inning at a time. It's tough to imagine that he'll go more than five innings in this one until he can build up some stamina. That will give an underrated Seattle lineup several cracks at the Rangers bullpen. Texas has a decent pen, but when you have to throw three or four guys out there you are almost certain to get a rally going at some point. Seattle will go with left-hander Joe Saunders in this one. He's nothing special but his pitching style is well-suited for Safeco Field and he has great numbers there in his career. We'll play the M's as the home underdog in this one.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-26-13 | Philadelphia Phillies -130 v. New York Mets | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #953 Philadelphia Phillies over New York Mets (7:10pm ET) The season is over for both the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets, but these teams are taking completely different approaches in the final couple of months of the 2013 season. The New York Mets are clearly playing for the future, inserting lots of young players in their lineup and giving some young pitchers chances on the mound. They have some good blue chip talent and could be a force to be reckoned with in a year or two. But these games in 2013 mean nothing to them and they've dropped nine of 13 as a result. For the Phillies, they are a veteran team that just got a new manager in Ryne Sandberg. These veterans have some pride and they aren't just going to roll over for the rest of the season. They also want to impress their new manager as he evaluates the team for next season. The Phils have responded by going 6-2 over their last eight contests. Besides having motivation on their side, Philadelphia also has a huge edge on the mound today with Cliff Lee. The crafty left-hander is still one of the best pitchers in the game but doesn't get too much attention. He's 10-6 with a 3.16 ERA and 1.05 WHIP and hasn't seen a decline in any of his peripherals this season at the age of 34. The Mets send rookie Zack Wheeler to the hill, who has plenty of upside but is still learning how to locate his pitches. Wheeler is walking 4.1 batters per nine innings and he's managed to get by putting lots of free runners on base so far. But that will eventually catch up with him and I expect some struggles for this youngster down the stretch. The Phillies have also seen Wheeler already this season, so they should be better prepared this time around. Take Philadelphia at the short price on the road.
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08-25-13 | Boston Red Sox v. Los Angeles Dodgers +102 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #930 Los Angeles Dodgers Boston Red Sox (8:05pm ET) The rubber game of the series goes today in Los Angeles as the Dodgers host the Boston Red Sox in the ESPN Sunday Night Game of the Week. These are two of the best teams in the game and it could be a potential World Series matchup in October. But clearly no one has been playing at the level that the Dodgers have recently. They are 46-11 in their last 57 games and have not lost the last 18 series they competed in. Today is the series deciding game, so they'll need to win to keep that streak alive. I'm sure they are well aware of their accomplishments and will be 100% focused to try and keep the run intact. Our money is on the hottest team in baseball. They are an underdog at home, which is complete disrespect. Take the Dodgers.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-25-13 | Washington Nationals +119 v. Kansas City Royals | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 0 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #927 Washington Nationals (+115) over Kansas City Royals (2:10pm ET) Every game in this series between the Washington Nationals and Kansas City Royals has been lined incorrectly, and today is no exception. The Nationals have much more talent and are the better team, but the Royals have been the favorites in each game. So much about handicapping is trying to look into the future instead of focusing too much on the past. The Royals have had a little bit better season than Washington has so far, but if you look at these rosters the choice is clear. The Nats are loaded and now that the pressure is off, they have been playing much better. They won the first two games in this series and have won 11 of 15 over the last couple of weeks. They're finally over .500 and this team believes that they have an outside chance of grabbing that last wild card spot. Dan Haren pitches today and he's been throwing very well after a bad start to the 2013 campaign. In his last six outings, the veteran right-hander is 4-0 with a 1.32 ERA and 0.74 WHIP. He even picked up a save in relief in a 15-inning win against the Cubs last week. This is the Haren of old and he seems to be fully healthy for the first time in quite some time. Ervin Santana pitches for the Royals and he's had a good season, but the Nats are going to be a tough out today. They are swinging the bats extremely well lately and have beaten up on Royals pitching the first two games of this series. Washington should get the job done again today.
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08-25-13 | New York Yankees v. Tampa Bay Rays -148 | 3-2 | Loss | -148 | 2 h 29 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #918 Tampa Bay Rays over New York Yankees (1:40pm ET) The American League East has been tightening up over the last few weeks. The Yankees have been creeping up closer to the top after acquiring Alfonso Soriano and getting back Curtis Granderson and Alex Rodriguez from injuries. But the Tampa Bay Rays have put them back in their place winning the first two games of this series, moving seven games ahead of the Bronx Bombers. Today they'll go for the sweep with one of the most underrated starting pitchers in baseball taking the ball. Alex Cobb is a rising star in this league and most don't know much about him. Cobb doesn't throw very hard but he has excellent control and knows exactly what he wants to do with each hitter. He missed some time after taking a line drive to the head, but has come back strong. He's 8-2 with a 2.85 ERA and 1.15 WHIP to go along with a very strong K/BB ratio on the season. It won't be long before this guy is a household name, but we'll take advantage now as he's a bit under the radar. He's at home today, where the Rays have one of the strongest home field advantages in baseball. They are 43-23 in Tropicana Field this year and no one tops that in the American League. The price is right for Tampa Bay today.
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08-24-13 | Washington Nationals -107 v. Kansas City Royals | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #979 Washington Nationals over Kansas City Royals (7:10pm ET) We mentioned it yesterday, but it certainly bears repeating. If this game was taking place during the first week of April this season (with these pitching matchups), the line would certainly be 40-50 cents higher for the Nationals. Now that's not the only reason to make a play on Washington today, but it's a good start. Jordan Zimmermann is one of the better pitchers in the National League at 14-7 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. He is coming off of one of his worst performances of the year and was embarrassed after giving up eight runs in five innings against the Cubs last time out. That should motivate him to pitch well today in Kansas City, as good pitchers don't let themselves get knocked around on back-to-back occasions very often. The Royals are feeling pretty down about themselves after losing 9 of 11 and falling out of contention for a playoff spot. They were on the cusp of the wild card race after a very strong run at the end of July and beginning of August. But now they are on the verge of falling back to .500 with a loss today. Wade Davis pitches for the Royals and he has been a ticking time bomb this season. He's 6-9 with a 5.43 ERA and 1.75 WHIP and it's a bit surprising he's still in the Royals rotation. Washington has been hitting better recently and I have no doubt that they'll get some good hacks on the struggling right-hander. Take the Nats as our 10-unit Game.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-24-13 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Philadelphia Phillies +103 | 12-7 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #952 Philadelphia Phillies over Arizona Diamondbacks (7:05pm ET) There is no question that this has been a horrendous season if you're a fans of the Philadelphia Phillies. They're currently 12 games under .500 and have no shot at the playoffs in 2013. However, they do have a new reason to get fired up for each game - new manager Ryne Sandberg. Ryno has given this team some new energy since taking over last week. The Phils are 5-1 in their last six games and are playing like a team that is trying to impress their new manager. Right-hander Ethan Martin is looking to impress the entire Phillies organization today in an effort to earn a spot in the rotation down the road. He's been mediocre in his first four starts, but he's gotten a little bit better in each outing. He throws into the mid-90's and has a pretty impressive strikeout rate of 9.6 per nine innings. He'll go up against a Diamondbacks team that hasn't seen him yet, so that should give Martin the advantage the first time or two through the order. Arizona sends struggling right-hander Randall Delgado to the bump in this contest. Delgado has a 6.00 ERA in his last four starts and doesn't look like he's very confident on the mound. The Phillies should also be a little more charged up after coming from behind yesterday and winning the game in the 9th inning. They certainly have some momentum right now and we'll take them here as a home underdog.
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08-24-13 | Boston Red Sox v. Los Angeles Dodgers -116 | 4-2 | Loss | -116 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #978 Los Angeles Dodgers over Boston Red Sox (4:05pm ET) You don't need many reasons to take a close look at a team that is 46-10 in its last 56 games. And that's especially true when that team is only a small favorite at home with one of their best pitchers on the mound. The Los Angeles Dodgers have been tearing apart every team that gets in their way and has put together one of the most impressive winning streaks in the modern era of baseball. This team is budding with talent and after taking a while to build the team chemistry, this team seems nearly unbeatable in a series. Today crafty left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu gets the ball against the Boston Red Sox. Besides the fact that he's one of the better pitchers in the NL, Ryu has two more distinct advantages today. First, the Red Sox have never seen him pitch live and he's a difficult pitcher to pick up. Secondly, Boston really struggles against southpaws. As a result, don't expect many runs from the Red Sox here today, which should make life easier for the Dodgers offense. They'll face lefty Jon Lester, who had a strong start to the 2013 but has been mediocre since. Play the Dodgers today as they look to continue their amazing run.
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08-23-13 | Texas Rangers v. Chicago White Sox -123 | 11-5 | Loss | -123 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #922 Chicago White Sox over Texas Rangers (8:10pm ET) There haven't been many bright spots for the last place Chicago White Sox this season, but Chris Sale continues to shine. He doesn't get gobs on attention like some of the other young pitchers around baseball (see Matt Harvey, Stephen Strasburg or Jose Fernandez), but he's at the same level. All of those guys pitch in the National League and Sale is putting up similar numbers against much tougher competition in a superior league. In 23 starts this season, the 24-year old left-hander has a 2.78 ERA and 1.07 WHIP to go along with an excellent 9.5-1.9 K/BB ratio. Those are amazing numbers and this guy is still learning how to pitch. Today he'll face an overrated Texas Rangers lineup in US Cellular Field. The Rangers are barely in the top five in many offensive categories in the American League, but those numbers aren't park-adjusted. Take into account that half of their games are in Arlington and you have a very average offense. Also consider the fact that they are without Nelson Cruz (who was replaced by an inferior Alex Rios) and this team is going to struggle to score runs against good pitching. The White Sox don't score many runs of their own, but they probably only need to scratch across three or so runs to take this game. I like the White Sox in this spot.
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08-23-13 | Washington Nationals -104 v. Kansas City Royals | 11-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #927 Washington Nationals over Kansas City Royals (8:10pm ET) If this game was taking place during the first week of April this season, the line would certainly be 40-50 cents higher for the Nationals. Coming into 2013, the Nats were one of the favorites to get to the World Series with all of their young talent and great pitching rotation. The Royals were supposed be improved, but few thought that they'd be over .500 this late in the season. So what has changed about these teams since April? Really, nothing. These teams have basically the same rosters now that they did then, but the only difference is that the Nationals didn't play to their ability and the Royals did. Looking ahead to the last 30+ games left in the season, I fully expect the talent of Washington to outplay that of Kansas City. Yes, the Nats choked and didn't come through in a lot of clutch spots this season. But the pressure is off now and I expect them to play better down the stretch. For the Royals, they just blew what should have been an easy series at home versus the White Sox. They were swept in that series and are now 9.5 games behind the Tigers in the AL Central and 7 games out in the Wild Card race. They're not completely out of it yet, but with so many teams ahead of them, it's going to be tough. I have a feeling that may take some air out of what was a red hot Kansas City team. Today's pitching matchup features two left-handers - Gio Gonzalez versus Bruce Chen. Without looking at any numbers, we know Gonzalez is much better and no one in their right mind would disagree. I'm not saying this line should be Nationals -150 like it would have been earlier in the season. But it certainly shouldn't be even either. The right answer is somewhere in between, and that gives up plenty of value on Washington here.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-23-13 | Detroit Tigers -173 v. New York Mets | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #925 Detroit Tigers over New York Mets (7:10pm ET) Today's game between the Detroit Tigers and New York Mets is a classic late season mismatch. The Tigers are in first place in the AL Central trying to fight off the Indians and Royals for the division. They are 74-53 and considered to have one of the most talented rosters in all of baseball. The New York Mets, on the other hand, are looking ahead to their future. They are 58-67 and have no shot at the playoffs in 2013. Several young players have been handed starting jobs for the remainder of the season to see what they can do. It's smart baseball by the Mets organization as they have several young players blossoming at the same time. Once they mature, they will be a force to be reckoned with. But that time is not now. Veteran Daisuke Matsuzaka will make his first ever start with the Mets after spending most of the season in the Indians minor league system. The once feared Japanese pitcher wasn't that impressive in the minor leagues but the Mets are giving him a chance since they have nothing to lose. He probably won't go deep into his first game against major league hitters this season, which leads to another problem - the Mets bullpen. The Mets have one of the worst bullpens in baseball and that gives the Tigers plenty of more chances to tee off if Matsuzaka is pulled early due to ineffectiveness or his pitch count. Doug Fister pitches for Detroit and he's a very underrated arm. He's a back end of the rotation guy for the Tigers because of their excellent pitching depth, but he could easily be a #2 guy on plenty of teams. The Mets are without star third basemen David Wright and that makes it that much tougher for them to compete. Take Detroit in what looks like it could be a blowout win.
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08-22-13 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Cincinnati Reds -177 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 9 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #9 Cincinnati Reds over Arizona Diamondbacks (12:35pm ET) Don't look now, but the Cincinnati Reds are coming fast. Winners of 11 of their last 15 games, the Reds are now only 2.5 games out of first place in the National League Central division. This team is finally healthy after missing Ryan Ludwick and Ryan Hanigan for a good chunk of the season, and since they've come back this team is playing better. Today' starter Mat Latos has quietly put together a very nice season at 12-4 with a 3.02 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. He's been even sharper over his last five outings as he's gone 3-1 with a miniscule 1.25 ERA - and four of those starts were on the road! This game has a very early start time at 11:35am local time in Cincinnati. That's only 9:35am PST for their opponent the Arizona Diamondbacks, which could be a huge advantage for the home team today. Trevor Cahill is responsible for trying to keep a dangerous Cincinnati lineup at bay. Cahill missed over six weeks with a right hip contusion and was not very sharp in his first start back last Saturday. He gave up four earned runs in five innings of work and had to throw 94 pitches to get there. He still probably has a little bit of rust and that could spell trouble for him today. I like the Reds in this early matinee.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-21-13 | Washington Nationals -105 v. Chicago Cubs | Top | 11-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #913 Washington Nationals over Chicago Cubs (8:05pm ET) The Washington Nationals have had a terrible season, but they think they still have a shot for a wild card. It's not going to happen, but as long as they believe it they may be a valuable team to back. They still have plenty of talent and they haven't made a big run yet. Today they are essentially an even bet against an inferior opponent in the Cubs. If you just purely at numbers, this line seems about right. However, when you are looking at betting opportunities you have to project what's going to happen and not what already happened. This Nationals team is far superior to the Cubs and we'll gladly take them at even price today.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-21-13 | Los Angeles Dodgers -172 v. Miami Marlins | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
2-unit Play Take #911 Los Angeles Dodgers over Miami Marlins (7:10pm ET) The Los Angeles Dodgers look to continue their epic run today in Miami against the Marlins. The Dodgers are now an amazing 43-10 in their last 53 games and they don't appear to be losing any steam. Yesterday they got an emotional late inning win against these Marlins. Yasiel Puig hit the game winning home run in the eighth inning after being held out of the starting lineup for arriving late to the park. That should carry over to today's game as Zack Greinke takes the ball for the Dodgers. Greinke has found a nice rhythm after a slow start to the 2013 season. In his last eight starts, the right-hander is 5-1 with a 1.13 ERA and 0.83 WHIP. He's one of the very best pitchers when he's on top of his game and he's definitely in the zone now. The Marlins have been hitting better after a very difficult start to the season, but they're still the worst lineup in baseball. Going up against Greinke won't be easy and they'll have problems even getting base runners in this one. The Dodgers are up against Nathan Eovaldi. They shouldn't need much off Eovaldi, so they should get the job done. Take the Dodgers today.
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08-21-13 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Milwaukee Brewers +106 | 8-6 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 28 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #904 Milwaukee Brewers over St. Louis Cardinals (2:10pm ET) The St. Louis Cardinals continue to hurt their chances to make the playoffs as Jake Westbrook takes the mound again. Today's beneficiary is the Milwaukee Brewers, who have some dangerous bats in the lineup. They are a dangerous spoiler team down the stretch and could ruin playoff chances for several teams in the National League. They will surely be able to do some damage against Westbrook, who has posted some hideous numbers over his last four starts. During that stretch he is 0-4 with a 10.13 ERA and a 2.06 WHIP. His K/BB ratio is even worse at 10-15. Those numbers are about as bad as it gets and Westbrook is just one step away from getting shipped back to the minor leagues. This Cardinals team is overrated as well, and they've finally come back to earth over the last few weeks. St. Louis is just 10-16 in their last 26 games and has been sliding in the NL playoff race. Today they'll be up against it even more as star catcher Yadier Molina is sitting this one out. Take the Brewers today.
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08-20-13 | Tampa Bay Rays +100 v. Baltimore Orioles | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #971 Tampa Bay Rays over Baltimore Orioles (7:05pm ET) We played the Tampa Bay Rays over the Baltimore Orioles in game one of this series, and we like them again today for all of the same reasons. The Rays are just better in every important phase of the game from hitting, to bullpens, to defense and to today's starting pitchers. People may forget, but there was a long stretch earlier this season where Alex Cobb was the best pitcher on the Rays' staff and one of the best pitchers in the league. But then he was struck by a line drive in the head and it changed his season and his life. He's back in the rotation now making his second start since coming off the disabled list. In watching his first star back he looked just like the old Cobb. He went five innings (on a pitch count) and only allowed one run, three hits and two walks while striking out six. He'll have a stiffer challenge today against a dangerous O's lineup, but I expect him to do well. Take the Rays here at the underdog price.
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08-19-13 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Cincinnati Reds -164 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
1-unit Play Take #904 Cincinnati Reds over Arizona Diamondbacks (7:10pm ET) The Cincinnati Reds are starting to heat up and have drawn within 2.5 games of the first place Pirates in the National League Central. Cincinnati is 9-3 in its last 12 contests and one of the reasons why is that they're finally getting healthy. Outfielder Ryan Ludwick has missed most of the season and catcher Ryan Hanigan has missed significant time as well. But both of them are back and they are two key pieces for this Reds squad. Veteran Bronson Arroyo gets the start today at home versus the Arizona Diamondbacks. He is having a great year at the age of 36 at 11-9 with a 3.35 ERA. And over his last seven starts, he's given up three earned runs or less in six of them. The D-Backs are coming off a 16-inning marathon in Pittsburgh on Sunday afternoon, so they are going to be a bit fatigued. They won the game 4-2 but also exhausted virtually their entire bullpen in the process. That means that right-hander Randall Delgado will be counted on to go deep in the game against a potent Reds offense. But that could be a tall task as Delgado has given up 13 runs in his last three starts combined. He seems to have lost his confidence on the mound and I wouldn't be surprised if he gets torched early on in this game. Take the Reds today.
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08-19-13 | Tampa Bay Rays -128 v. Baltimore Orioles | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
1-unit Play Take #913 Tampa Bay Rays over Baltimore Orioles (7:05pm ET) A big series in Baltimore gets underway as the Tampa Bay Rays travel to take on the Orioles in the first game on Monday. The Rays are just 3.5 games ahead of the O's in the wild card chase, but the Rays are a significantly better team in nearly every phase of the game. Tampa has better offensive numbers on a park-adjusted basis, they play better defense than the Orioles and they have a better bullpen. But the biggest advantage of them all is in their starting rotation. The Rays have one of the best rotations in baseball and today send their ace David Price to the hill. Price got off to a slow start this season and battled through an injury as well, but he finally has it all together. The southpaw has been dominant over his last five starts, sporting a 1.60 ERA and 0.66 WHIP to go along with a ridiculous 28-2 K/BB ratio. Manager Joe Maddon has commented that he's never seen Price throwing this well and that's saying a lot given that he won the Cy Young award last season. The O's lineup is certainly powerful, but they have struggled against left-handers quite a bit this season. Baltimore counters with right-hander Chris Tillman in today's matchup. Tillman is 14-3 with a 3.70 ERA in 24 starts in 2013. Those are nice numbers, but his peripherals don't quite support it. He has a 1.29 WHIP and a mediocre 7.34 - 3.33 K/BB ratio per nine innings. He also gives up a ton of fly balls and home runs, which could be a huge problem against a Ray's team that has some pop. All in all, the Rays are the better team overall and have one of the hottest pitchers in baseball pitching today. That's enough to support them on the road at this short price.
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08-19-13 | New York Mets v. Minnesota Twins -125 | 6-1 | Loss | -125 | 4 h 53 m | Show | |
1-unit Play Take #922 Minnesota Twins over New York Mets (2:10pm ET) It's a tough spot for the New York Mets today as they travel to Minneapolis for a makeup game against the Twins. The Mets are traveling from San Diego for this late morning start and then will hop on a plane immediately afterwards for a series back in New York. That's quite a lot of traveling in a couple of days and that's a good enough reason in itself to take a strong look at the Twins. Rookie Kyle Gibson has struggled for the Twins in his first 9 starts, but he has great stuff and I doubt the Mets will spend much time scouting him due to the unique one-game situation. The Mets are without their best hitter David Wright and that takes a mediocre lineup to begin with and makes it awful. As a result, Gibson is in a good spot to succeed today and the Twins bullpen is one of the best if he can just keep it close. The Mets, on the other hand, have one of the worst bullpens in the game and blew a late lead yesterday in San Diego. The American League has also dominated the National League in Interleague play once again this season. All signs point to the Twins in this one.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-18-13 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Chicago Cubs +150 | 6-1 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 43 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #962 Chicago Cubs over St. Louis Cardinals (1:20pm ET) The Chicago Cubs host the St. Louis Cardinals in the rubber game of their three game set in Wrigley Field this afternoon. We've had good success going against the Cardinals over the last few weeks as they are just 8-15 in their last 23 games overall. Adam Wainwright gets the ball for St. Louis and he's put together a very nice season in 2013 at 13-7 with a 2.71 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. However, he has given up at least three earned runs in each of his last four starts and the Cubs have touched him up for four earned runs both of the times they faced him this season. As a result, the Cubs should be able to do some damage. Edwin Jackson has been up and down in 2013 at 7-12 with a 5.05 ERA. He's not been as bad as he's looked however, as he's pitched his worst with runners on base and given up some really big innings. Jackson is the type of pitcher who can step up in a big game like this against an arch rival with their ace pitcher throwing. And when Jackson is on he can dominate opposing hitters. This price is just too big to pass up on the Cubs at home and we expect the Cardinals to continue to struggle.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-17-13 | Washington Nationals +110 v. Atlanta Braves | Top | 8-7 | Win | 110 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #911 Washington Nationals over Atlanta Braves (7:10pm ET) Stephen Strasburg was once the talk of baseball and everyone's favorite young pitcher. But a mediocre season by the Washington Nationals has taken a lot of the attention off of the Nats ace, and that bodes well for us today. Strasburg has pitched brilliantly in his last five outings, registering a 2.37 ERA and 0.79 WHIP to go along with a nice 44-6 K/BB ratio. That's pure dominance and the Strasburg that everyone expected to see after breaking on the scene in 2010. He'll face a red hot Braves team today in Atlanta. The Braves are 18-2 in their last 20 games and have a stranglehold on the division now. The Nationals are 15.5 games back in the NL East and their only hope is a long shot at a wild card spot should one of the teams in the NL Central falter. The fact that Atlanta has such a big lead could play to Washington's advantage here today as this game is much bigger for them than it is for Atlanta. Mike Minor will toe the rubber for the Braves and he's put together a pretty good 2013 campaign. He's 12-5 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.04 WHIP and has improved his peripherals across the board. However, he's coming off of back-to-back subpar outings against the Marlins and these Nationals. This game is all about Strasburg though. He's pitching about as well as anyone in the league right now and is a steal at an underdog price.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-16-13 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Pittsburgh Pirates -146 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #954 Pittsburgh Pirates over Arizona Diamondbacks (7:05pm ET) The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight in PNC Park as their three-game series gets underway. We've stressed it a lot recently, but there's a reason that the Pirates are in first place in the NL Central and have the second best record in all of baseball. They know how to win ballgames. They're not the most talented team, don't have many stars and their recent past has been atrocious. However, their image is quickly changing and this is a legitimate World Series contender in 2013. Rookie Gerrit Cole takes the mound for Pittsburgh in his 12th start of the season. He's been very consistent in his first 11 starts, giving up between one and four earned runs in every start. He's not a dominant type of pitcher, but he's the kind of guy that always keeps his team in the game and avoids the big inning. But at the age of 22, his 3.95 ERA and 1.14 WHIP isn't too shabby at all. The D-Backs send right-hander Brandon McCarthy to the bump. He's missed most of the season with a shoulder injury and has made two starts since returning from the disabled list. He's looked alright in those two outings, but he doesn't appear to be 100% yet and it might be a while before he's the same pitcher he was with the A's last year. Pittsburgh has been tremendous at home this season with a 41-20 mark - good enough for second in the majors. Arizona has struggled on the road and this is a long trip for them coming from Phoenix. I like the Pirates to take this game.
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08-15-13 | Pittsburgh Pirates +110 v. St. Louis Cardinals | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 57 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #901 Pittsburgh Pirates over St. Louis Cardinals (1:45pm ET) The Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals go head-to-head in the rubber match of their three-game set in Busch Stadium this afternoon. We have a pretty even pitching matchup in this one as right-handers A.J. Burnett and Lance Lynn take the mound. So what today's line is telling us is that the betting markets feel that the Cardinals are an overall better team than the Pirates are. Yes the Cardinals have more talent, better numbers and a better track record in recent years. But I believe that the Pirates are every bit as good as the Cardinals are in 2013. Let's start with the obvious. Pittsburgh is currently in first place in the NL Central - three games ahead of the Cardinals after nearly 120 games played this season. In head-to-head matchups in 2013, the Pirates have won 8 of 12 games after yesterday's 5-1 victory. The biggest argument for the Cardinals being better is their vastly better run differential. However, the Cardinals are known for laying it on thick when they're ahead and they've won plenty of games by 10+ runs this year. In close games the Pirates are a much better team because they play great defense, have a strong bullpen and do all of the little things right. Those are winning types of attributes and that is worth a lot when you're playing good teams. The Cardinals are better at destroying bad teams, but the Pirates play well enough against everyone to earn victories. As a result, I expect the Pirates to win this division and fend off the Cardinals and Reds. As for today, this game is a coin flip game so we'll gladly take the value with the plus money side in Pittsburgh.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-14-13 | New York Mets v. Los Angeles Dodgers -180 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
1-unit Play Take #962 Los Angeles Dodgers over New York Mets (10:10pm ET) We'll keep this one short as you don't need much more of a reason to bet on the Los Angeles Dodgers right now other than the fact that they are 39-8 in their last 47 games and still aren't getting the respect in the betting markets. This is the best team in baseball and their opponent the New York Mets are playing for the future rather than the present. Chris Capuano takes the hill for the Dodgers and he's been pitching very well of late. The Mets also struggle with southpaws, so I expect the Dodgers to cruise to another victory tonight and keep their momentum going.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-13-13 | New York Mets v. Los Angeles Dodgers -113 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 24 h 12 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #912 Los Angeles Dodgers over New York Mets (10:10pm ET) Since 1950, only one team has had a better stretch over 45 games than the Dodgers have right now. Los Angeles is 37-8 during their current run and they |
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08-09-13 | Milwaukee Brewers v. Seattle Mariners -126 | Top | 10-5 | Loss | -126 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #928 Seattle Mariners over Milwaukee Brewers (10:10pm ET) We've been pumping up the Seattle Mariners for quite some time. They haven't been knocking anyone's socks off, but they've been good enough to cash more tickets than they lose and bad enough to keep the spotlight off of themselves. That's the perfect scenario in the betting world and we'll continue to look to play them when the line is right. Today is one of those opportunities as they host the Milwaukee Brewers in the first of three games in Safeco Field. The Brewers aren't too familiar with Safeco and it's a fairly long flight from Milwaukee. That should give the M's a little more home field advantage than normal in today's matchup. And speaking of home field advantage, Seattle starter Joe Saunders certainly knows how to use Safeco to his advantage. He has better numbers there than anywhere else during his career and 2013 is no exception. His ERA on the road is a puffy 5.33, but in Seattle he checks in at a cool 3.62. The Brewers are also a mess on offense right now with all of their injuries. Starting third baseman Aramis Ramirez is hurt along with second baseman Rickie Weeks. And of course Ryan Braun is gone for the season due to his PED suspension. That leaves the Brewers with some pretty big holes and some easy outs in the lineup. Take Seattle tonight as our 10-unit Game.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-07-13 | Tampa Bay Rays -122 v. Arizona Diamondbacks | 8-9 | Loss | -122 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #929 Tampa Bay Rays over Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40pm ET) The Tampa Bay Rays have been the best team in the American League over the last two months and today they get a chance to beat up on a struggling National League team in the Arizona Diamondbacks. Right-hander Chris Archer gets the nod today for Tampa and he's been amazing since joining the rotation in early June. In 12 starts so far, the rookie is 6-4 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. His K/BB ratio isn't quite as impressive, so he won't be able to sustain that good of an ERA, but he's going to still be a very solid pitcher for the Rays. Arizona will counter with Randall Delgado for today's matchup. He's been putting up good numbers as well at 4-3 with a 3.17 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. However, his peripherals aren't as impressive as Archer's and he pitches in the weaker NL. Tampa Bay is 37-18 in their last 55 games against right-hander starters and 12-4 in their last 16 road games. The Diamondbacks are 16-35 in their last 51 games as an underdog in Interleague play. All signs point to Tampa Bay here tonight.
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08-07-13 | Atlanta Braves v. Washington Nationals -120 | 6-3 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 11 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #902 Washington Nationals over Atlanta Braves (7:05pm ET) The Atlanta Braves have won 12 straight games, but today we're going with a contrarian play against them. The betting markets generally get a little out of whack with long winning streaks like this as no one wants to play against the hot team. But we'll go in that direction today as we're getting at least 10 extra cents of value playing Washington. The Nats have right-hander Jordan Zimmermann on the mound versus Kris Medlen of the Braves. Zimmermann has been a better pitcher this season by a decent margin and the Nats are much better against right-handed pitchers, so they should give Medlen some problems. Sometimes it's hard to pull the trigger on a bet, but those bets are usually the ones that end up cashing. Take the Nationals here at home with a short price.
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08-07-13 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Seattle Mariners -120 | Top | 7-9 | Win | 100 | 20 h 3 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #914 Seattle Mariners over Toronto Blue Jays (3:40pm ET) A quick glance at the names in the lineups and pitching staffs wouldn
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08-06-13 | New York Yankees v. Chicago White Sox -121 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #970 Chicago White Sox over New York Yankees (8:10pm ET) Two teams heading in the wrong direction take the field in Chicago as the White Sox host the New York Yankees. The White Sox have lost 13 of 15 heading into today's game. The Yankees are 9-15 in their last 24 contests. The White Sox have been dead for a while, while the Yankees are still trying to stay in contention with too many teams ahead of them. Despite how badly these clubs have played recently, we have a good pitching matchup on the mound and this should be a decent game to take in. Hiroki Kuroda gets the ball for the Yanks and he's 10-6 with a 2.38 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 22 starts this season. Chris Sale goes for the White Sox and he's 6-11 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. There really isn't too much of a difference between these pitchers except for the run support that they've received in 2013. For the White Sox, their bats finally woke up in yesterday's 8-1 victory over the Yankees after losing 10 straight. The big question for the Yankees is how the team is going to respond with Alex Rodriguez in the lineup during his suspension appeal. He has rubbed plenty of guys the wrong way during this entire ordeal, including a couple of his teammates. That could be bad for team chemistry, but he's certainly an upgrade at third base. Chicago is a bad baseball team but they are certainly better than their record indicates. They are a league worst 14-25 in one run games and are also dead last with a 5-12 mark in extra-inning games. The White Sox have won five of the last seven meetings and I think they squeak out a win at home here.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-05-13 | Los Angeles Dodgers +138 v. St. Louis Cardinals | 3-2 | Win | 138 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #903 Los Angeles Dodgers over St. Louis Cardinals (7:05pm ET) The hottest team in baseball heads to St. Louis for a huge four-game series in Busch Stadium. The Los Angeles Dodgers are fresh off a four-game sweep of the Chicago Cubs to run their hot streak to 31-7 in their last 38 games. That is just an amazing stretch that you don't see every year. Despite the way they're playing though, the Dodgers come into today's matchup as a fairly sizable underdog with a very good pitcher on the mound in Zack Greinke. The Cardinals are four games better than the Dodgers in the standings on the season, but they are not the better team. The Dodgers were off to a very slow start this season due to the injuries and missing big pieces like Yasiel Puig. They are a completely different team than they were in April and May, but the betting markets appear to still be punishing them for losses in those months. They'll have a tough assignment today versus Adam Wainwright. However, the big right-hander hasn't been as sharp in his last few outings. Over his last four starts he's just 1-1 with a 5.46 ERA and has walked five batters - which is a lot for him. Greinke, on the other hand, has been very good recently. In his last five starts he is 2-1 with a 1.75 ERA and 0.83 WHIP and has been striking out more batters than usual. These two aces are on fairly equal footing, but I give a slight edge to Greinke given the current form. I also give the Dodgers the nod offensively the way they've been swinging the bats during their run. St. Louis is capable of putting up double digits on the scoreboard at any time, but it's been feast or famine for them since Yadier Molina went on the disabled list. He's a huge part of the offense and the defense and is one of the most valuable players in baseball. All in all, I think this game is priced roughly 15-20 cents too high, which has been a consistent trend for Dodgers games lately. No reason to believe that they don't keep on winning, so we're on Los Angeles here.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-04-13 | Los Angeles Dodgers -115 v. Chicago Cubs | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 3 h 8 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #959 Los Angeles Dodgers over Chicago Cubs (1:20pm ET) They've been doing it for so long that people aren't talking about it anymore. The Los Angeles Dodgers continue to add wins to their streak, but it's no longer the top story in baseball. The Dodgers are now 30-7 in their last 37 games and they seemingly get better in each series. Today they look for a four-game sweep of the hapless Cubs, who they've held to a combined six runs in the first three games of the series. Stephen Fife is back from the disabled list and will look to continue the Dodger pitching dominance in Wrigley Field. Fife has been flying under the radar but has been very effective in 2013. He comes in with a 2.76 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in eight starts and does a good job of staying ahead of hitters and keeping the ball on the ground. He is wise beyond his years at the age of 26 and should be a mainstay in this Dodgers rotation if he can stay healthy. The Cubs have really struggled at the plate since the break, averaging less than three runs per game. As a result, they're going to need today's starter Carlos Villanueva to be very good. Villanueva has shown some signs for the Cubs this season, but the problem is he can't go deep into games yet. He's worked a lot out of the bullpen in the past and the Cubs have kept his innings fairly low recently. That could spell trouble today as the Chicago bullpen is not deep and has been one of their biggest pain points in 2013. The Dodgers are riding high and they should keep the momentum going against a Cubs team that seems to be a little shell shocked after trading away quite a few guys in July. Take Los Angeles here.
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08-04-13 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Cincinnati Reds -130 | 15-2 | Loss | -130 | 2 h 58 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #952 Cincinnati Reds over St. Louis Cardinals (1:10pm ET) The St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds hook up in the rubber game of their three game set today in Great American Ballpark. Fellow right-handers Lance Lynn and Mike Leake will take the mound in this National League Central battle. Lynn has put up solid numbers this season but doesn't overwhelm you. He has a nice 12-5 record due to some great run support, but his ERA is just 3.87 and hasn't looked as sharp the last few weeks. The Reds lineup that will face him today has hit Lynn pretty well so they should get some good knocks against him at home. Leake has had a breakthrough season in 2013. He's 10-4 with a 2.59 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 21 starts. He doesn't get a ton of attention because he's behind some other great arms on that staff, but Leake is slowly emerging as an All-Star caliber pitcher. He also can swing the bat very well for a pitcher and could probably play every day in the field if he ever had a serious arm injury. Yadier Molina is out for the Cardinals and that's a huge loss as he not only is one of their best hitters and a great defensive catcher, but he's also the team leader. There's no question that's going to continue to affect the Cardinals on the field until he returns. The Cardinals just haven't been the same since the All-Star break and I think the Reds want this series more than they do. Take Cincinnati here today.
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