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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-15-14 | Seattle Mariners +121 v. Detroit Tigers | 7-2 | Win | 121 | 4 h 26 m | Show | |
5-unit Play Take #965 Seattle Mariners over Detroit Tigers (7:05pm EST) Not many would have predicted that the Detroit Tigers would be sitting in second place in the AL Central in mid-August, but that's exactly where they find themselves at the moment. Poor defense, a fragile bullpen and injuries have been the main culprits thus far. Detroit is just 12-16 since the All-Star break and their schedule hasn't been all that tough during that stretch. For a lot of clubs I would just chalk it about to bad variance or a series of unfortunate events, but I think it's deeper than that with the Tigers. The team chemistry isn't quite right and I think they are fully aware of their weaknesses and let it get into their own heads at times. Manager Brad Ausmus feels lost at times with this team and it will be interesting to see if he can right the ship down the stretch. Today they get a tough matchup against left-hander James Paxton of the Mariners. Paxton has been sensational since being called up from the minors a few weeks ago. In four starts he has a tidy 2.38 ERA and 0.93 WHIP to go along with an impressive 22-5 K/BB ratio. He has also faced some tough lineups in those starts going up against the White Sox, Orioles and Angels twice. Paxton was a highly-touted pitching prospect in the Seattle organization for the last couple of years, so his performance isn't a complete shocker. As a result, I think he can continue his dominance in Detroit against a struggling Tigers team. Rick Porcello will be pitching on short rest after a two-inning relief appearance in the marathon game in Toronto earlier this week. That could be enough to throw off his routine and give the M's a few better looks at the right-hander. This is a big series for both teams and I like the road team to get the job done today. Take Seattle behind Paxton. |
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08-14-14 | Houston Astros +141 v. Boston Red Sox | 4-9 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 55 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #915 Houston Astros over Boston Red Sox (7:10pm EST) It's hard to believe how sharp the decline has been for the Boston Red Sox. After winning the World Series last season, they find themselves in last place in the AL East at 54-65. And it's not like they've been unfortunate with tons of injuries or lots of losses in close games. This team has just played terrible baseball and they've deserved what they have gotten. As of today, they are only five games better than the Houston Astros - their opponent in this one. The Astros actually have a better record than the Red Sox from May on and are getting better by the day with all of their young talent. Tonight we see two bad starting pitchers in Scott Feldman for the Stros and Allen Webster for the BoSox. Feldman is a cagey veteran that doesn't have great stuff but always seems to keep his team in the game. He owns a respectable 4.14 ERA but his peripheral numbers are nothing special. Webster is a complete mess at the moment. He comes with a 4.93 ERA, but he has a horrific 8-13 K/BB ratio. That's as bad of a ratio as you will, and is ERA is going to continue to climb if he can't improve. Webster had a decent season in Triple-A, but the pressure is clearly getting to him in the majors. Until he figures that out, Webster is fade material. We get a great price on Houston and will gladly take it. |
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08-11-14 | Minnesota Twins v. Houston Astros +101 | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #966 Houston Astros over Minnesota Twins (8:10pm EST) We couldn't get there with the Houston Astros yesterday, but that won't discourage us today as this team has made us quite a bit of money in 2014 playing them in certain spots. The Astros are slowly but surely improving as a ballclub as they continue to bring up top-level talent from their minor league system. Their offense is has made huge strides and they know have a nice top five in their order with some power. They'll play a Twins club that is going backwards fast after a decent start to the campaign. They are 8-14 since the All-Star break and now sit at the bottom of the AL Central. Their offense is right on par with the Astros, as they are nothing special but are getting better. I also don't care much for either of today's starting pitchers. Brad Peacock has been a disaster on the mound lately, getting shelled in two recent starts. Tommy Milone was just traded to the Twins from the A's two weeks ago. Milone had a decent ERA but was fortunate in getting there. I've never liked his game and don't think he'll fit that well with the Twins. This one can really go either way, so we'll gladly take a plus price on the home team. Go Astros. |
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08-10-14 | Texas Rangers v. Houston Astros -140 | 6-2 | Loss | -140 | 2 h 43 m | Show | |
5-unit Play Take #918 Houston Astros over Texas Rangers (2:10pm EST) We get another opportunity to fade the worst starting pitcher in baseball today - Nick Martinez. It's amazing that Martinez continues to get chances at the big league level when he clearly isn't ready yet. Coming into today's start, he's 1-8 with a 5.31 ERA and 1.65 WHIP. Even worse, Martinez is striking out only 4.1 batters per nine innings and is walking the exact same amount. That's about as bad as it gets. The Astros lineup isn't very intimidating, but they aren't pushovers either. Yesterday they touched up Yu Darvish and the rest of the staff for eight runs. Today they shouldn't need nearly as many runs as their ace Dallas Keuchel gets the ball. The southpaw is having a breakthrough season at 10-7 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. He leads the majors is groundball rate for starting pitchers at 62%, which is a huge key to his success. The Rangers lineup is in shambles after numerous injuries and has produced less than the Astros have on a park-adjusted basis. It's hard to imagine that the Astros are the best team in Texas, but it's definitely true. And with Keuchel taking the mound we think Houston gets the job done with ease. Take the Astros as our Game. |
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08-09-14 | San Francisco Giants v. Kansas City Royals -134 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #980 Kansas City Royals over San Francisco Giants (7:10pm EST) The Kansas City Royals have won eight of nine games and are making a serious run at the top spot in the AL Central. It won't be an easy ascent, but the Royals have a nice winning formula. They have a good pitching staff with an excellent defense behind them. They play fundamentally sound baseball, get timely hitting when they need it, and they rarely beat themselves. Ace James Shields gets the start today for the Royals against the San Francisco Giants. Shields is overlooked pitching in a small market, so we sometimes see some extra value in games where he pitches against a better team. Today is one of those instances, as Kansas City is just a small home favorite against a team they are a little bit better than. The Giants are just 20-33 in their last 53 games, including just 6-21 versus teams with a winning record. Tim Hudson will get the nod in this one, but I'm weary of what his output will look like down the stretch. At 39 years of age, Hudson is no spring chicken. This is the point in the season when a lot of the older guys hit a wall and find it tough to put up the same kind of numbers they did earlier in the season. The Royals are just playing too well right now and they have the better starting pitcher at home. This line feels a little short so we're on the Royals. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-08-14 | Colorado Rockies v. Arizona Diamondbacks -125 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #912 Arizona Diamondbacks over Colorado Rockies (9:40pm EST) The Arizona Diamondbacks host the Colorado Rockies in the first of three games in Chase Field. This season hasn't gone according to plan for either team, but it's not as bad as it seems for Arizona. Since late April, the D-backs are 41-43 despite being dealt quite a few big injury blows. It was the rough start to the season that buried this team, but they've always played hard and haven't given up on the season. The same can't be said of the Rockies however. They are an abysmal 23-55 since late April, which is the worst mark in baseball over that span. Superstar and team leader Troy Tulowitzki was just quoted as saying things need to change with the team because he's tired of losing. The fact he went public with that statement doesn't bode well for team chemistry. Colorado has a talented roster, but something is wrong in the clubhouse and they have had a difficult time keeping everyone on the field at the same time. Today's matchups is lined a little short, with Chase Anderson a small favorite over Tyler Matzek. Anderson has had a solid rookie campaign at 6-4 with a 3.19 ERA and 1.30 WHIP while making half of his starts in a hitter's haven. Matzek, on the other hand, has struggled with Colorado at 2-6 with a 5.31 ERA. It doesn't help that he's a flyball pitcher in Coors Field, but Matzek clearly has some things to work on still and the Rockies are letting him take his bumps and bruises at the big league level. The Diamondbacks should be able to take advantage of that in this one. Colorado has been terrible on the road as usual with a 17-39 mark away from home. Play Arizona. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-07-14 | Houston Astros +106 v. Philadelphia Phillies | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #967 Houston Astros over Philadelphia Phillies (7:05pm EST) It hasn't been a fun year if you are a Philadelphia Phillies fan. As expected, the team has been sitting in last place in the NL East for most of the season. But that's not what has perturbed the passionate fan base in Philadelphia. The trade deadline came and went, and the Phillies roster did not change. No effort to rebuild and no sign of hope for the future. General Manager Ruben Amaro has one foot out the door, so it seems like he's just trying to play it safe to save his own job. That's not going to cut it in Philadelphia and the organization is going to continue to suffer under his watch. The effect has trickled down to the players on the field as a handful of players were almost certain they'd be moved to a contending team. The chemistry has never felt right under manager Ryne Sandberg and it certainly will get worse before it gets better. Roberto Hernandez starts in today's game against the Houston Astros. It's been an up and down year for the right-hander as he's been plagued by inconsistency for his entire career. His walk rate is way up to over 4.0 batters per nine innings and his strikeouts have decreased in the process. One good thing that Hernandez has done is cut down on his gopher balls, but he still misses the target too often. Meanwhile, Collin McHugh is a rising star for the Astros. He enters today's contest with a 3.32 ERA and his peripheral numbers fully support it. He is one of the leaders in strikeouts per nine innings and he is getting better each start. The Astros offense is still a major work-in-process, but they aren't much worse than the Phillies. With the huge edge on the mound, I like the Astros as an underdog today. |
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08-07-14 | Chicago Cubs -105 v. Colorado Rockies | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 27 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #955 Chicago Cubs over Colorado Rockies (3:10pm EST) Two youngsters on two bad teams will square off today in Coors Field. This one is pretty simple when you break it down from a handicapping perspective. Kyle Hendricks of the Cubs is more impressive than Yohan Flande is for the Rockies so far. They are both talented arms, but Hendricks has looked the part more in his first few starts. Through four starts, the right-hander is 2-1 with a 2.05 ERA and he's displayed excellent control. Hendricks is walking just 2.4 batters per nine innings, which will be important today in Denver. Flande has been blasted to the tune of a 5.72 ERA despite showing some good stuff overall. I think he could end up making a good impression at the big league level, but he might not be ready yet. The Cubs have been swinging the bats much better than the Rockies lately and I trust them to get the big hits today. Take Chicago as a small favorite. |
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08-06-14 | Baltimore Orioles -111 v. Toronto Blue Jays | 1-5 | Loss | -111 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
2-unit Play Take #913 Baltimore Orioles over Toronto Blue Jays (7:05pm EST) It's hard to say that anyone is hotter than the Baltimore Orioles right now. The O's are 22-9 in their last 31 contests and have built up a nice lead in the AL East. They don't have any dominating starting pitching and no huge superstars on offense, but this team just finds ways to win. Usually I look for regression from a team with those kinds of qualities, but for Baltimore the whole definitely is greater than the sum of the parts. Wei-Yin Chen will look to keep the run going in today's matchup versus the Blue Jays. He is having another solid season at 12-3 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. I really like his approach to hitters and he never seems to get flustered when he gets himself into a jam. The O's bullpen has also done a great job of late, so the team should be in good hands once Chen is ready to depart. Toronto has been reeling a bit, and a big part of the problem is the injuries to the lineup. Edwin Encarnacion has been out for several weeks as well as Adam Lind. Brett Lawrie is also banged up as this team is still missing some punch. Drew Hutchison makes the start for the Jays, but it's been a struggle for him recently. Over his last four starts, the right-hander owns a hefty 9.17 ERA and 1.92 WHIP. He dealt with some injury issues earlier this season, and I have a feeling that Hutchison isn't 100% healthy right now. He was dominating the AL earlier this season and now he can't make it past the fifth inning. The Orioles are the much better team right now and it makes this an easy selection. |
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08-05-14 | New York Mets +147 v. Washington Nationals | 6-1 | Win | 147 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #953 New York Mets over Washington Nationals (7:05pm EST) The New York Mets have a bright future and it's mostly because of their amazing young pitching. Zack Wheeler is one of those guys and he's quickly blossoming into a top-level starter with great stuff. He has a 3.52 ERA in 39 career starts and continues to get better in each start. He's striking out nearly a batter per inning and has done a great job of improving his groundball rate in 2014. The Mets offense hasn't given him a ton of support, but they've been hitting the ball better since the All-Star break. They'll go up against Gio Gonzalez of the Nationals tonight. Gio is having another solid, yet unspectacular, season at 6-7 with 3.88 ERA. He's fought through some nagging injuries and might not be pitching at 100% this late in the season. Right now, I'd put Wheeler comfortably ahead of Gonzalez in overall pitching abilities. The Nats clearly have an edge offensively, but it's not as big as it seems. Washington has only scored 30 more runs than the Mets have this season overall. The Nats have a better bullpen, but both of these starters have the ability to go deep into games which cuts down on the importance of the middle relief men. This line seems about 10 cents too high, so we're on the road team. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-04-14 | Los Angeles Angels v. Los Angeles Dodgers -124 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -124 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #912 Los Angeles Dodgers over Los Angeles Angels (10:10pm EST) Great game today in Los Angeles as two of the best teams in baseball square off. This could be a potential World Series matchup between the Dodgers and Angels and we'll see two of their best hurlers taking the mound. Garrett Richards has been quite a story for the Halos in 2014. At 11-4 with a 2.74 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, Richards has to be in the preliminary Cy Young discussion for the AL. But as good as Richards has been, Dodgers' starter Zack Greinke has been just a little bit better. Greinke is also the best home pitcher in baseball over the last several seasons and the Dodgers have taken full advantage. The team is an impressive 20-4 in Greinke's last 24 home starts. Greinke is also coming off of back-to-back brilliant performances against the Braves and Giants. He allowed a total of just one run in those outings while accumulating a 23-2 K/BB ratio. I also give the Dodgers the edge offensively as they have the slightly better lineup top to bottom and Matt Kemp is absolutely scorching the ball at the moment. In the 14 games since the All-Star break (excluding Sunday), Kemp is hitting .356 with four home runs and 13 RBI. He's finally healthy and that makes the Dodgers lineup even scarier than it has been all season. As for bullpens, it's pretty close to a draw as both have had their bumps and bruises this season. Joe Thatcher is on the disabled list for the Halos and that could be huge if Richards doesn't go really deep in this game. The line is far too short, so we'll take the Dodgers as our Game. |
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08-04-14 | Texas Rangers v. Chicago White Sox -143 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #906 Chicago White Sox over Texas Rangers (8:10pm EST) Two bad baseball teams square off on Monday evening, and the starting pitchers representing them are even worse. Hector Noesi has pitched for three different teams in 2014 and has a combined 5.21 ERA in 23 appearances. It's surprising the White Sox have stuck with him for so long rather than bringing up a young arm to get some experience in the big leagues. But it doesn't get any worse than Rangers' starter Nick Martinez. The 23-year old right-hander is the worst starter in the major leagues when you look at the whole picture. He's just 1-7 with a 5.08 ERA, but it those aren't the really bad numbers. Martinez is striking out only 3.9 batters per nine innings while giving up 4.0 walks per nine. He also has lowly 33% groundball rate and a 1.62 WHIP. There's nothing good about what he's doing on the mound and no reason to believe he's going to all of a sudden figure it out. The White Sox have some dangerous hitters in the lineup including superstar Jose Abreu, who should at least draw some walks against Martinez. It's been nearly three months since Martinez has won a game, and we won't count on it today either. Take the White Sox in this one. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-04-14 | Detroit Tigers v. New York Yankees +115 | 1-2 | Win | 115 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #904 New York Yankees over Detroit Tigers (7:05pm EST) The New York Yankees didn't make any blockbuster moves at the trade deadline like some of their rivals did, but they did add a few nice pieces. One of the guys they picked up a couple of weeks ago was Brandon McCarthy and he's fit in nicely in pinstripes so far. In four starts for the Yanks, he is 3-0 with a 2.20 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. McCarthy is a competitor and it's quite possible that pitching in New York has raised his game a notch or two. He's wasn't bad in Arizona, but this is the best he's looked since he was hit in the head with a liner two seasons ago. He'll have his hands full with the Detroit Tigers today, but they do struggle with good right-handers at times. The Tigers trade for David Price undoubtedly makes the team better equipped for postseason, but not much has been made of the fact that they had to give up Austin Jackson. That clearly diminishes the everyday lineup and will also negatively affect the team defensively with less versatility now. Max Scherzer toes the rubber today and that's a challenge for Yankees hitters. The good news is that the Detroit bullpen is still vulnerable. If McCarthy can just keep this game close heading into the late innings, the advantage shifts to the Yankees. We'll take New York as the home underdog. |
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08-03-14 | Cincinnati Reds -111 v. Miami Marlins | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 1 h 2 m | Show |
The Cincinnati Reds are missing two of their best players in Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips, but this is a fairly deep team that still has a chance to make some noise in the National League. The Reds are going to be relying more on their pitching now, and that puts the pressure on a staff that is capable of handling it. Today's starter Mike Leake doesn't get nearly enough credit for his accomplishments. He comes in with just an 8-9 record, but he holds a 3.53 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 22 starts. He's improved every aspect of his game in 2014 and it's showed up in his peripheral statistics. Leake has improved his strikeout and groundball rates while simultaneously cutting down on his walk totals. Leake has also been one of the best road pitchers in baseball over the last few years, so that makes him an even more attractive option today as he starts in Miami. The Marlins have been fighting hard to get back into contention, but I just don't think they have the horses. They have a good young nucleus that will be important for the future, but there aren't enough role players around them. Jacob Turner is one of the guys that is still trying to prove himself for Miami. The young right-hander was once a highly-touted arm in the Tigers farm system, but he hasn't been able to make much of an impression with the Marlins. Turner enters today's game with a robust 5.69 ERA and 1.57 WHIP despite some decent secondary numbers. The Marlins are just 2-7 in Turner's last nine home starts overall. Cincinnati has a big edge on the mound and I still like their roster a little bit better overall despite the injuries. Leake should get the job done here, so take the Reds as our Game of the Week. |
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08-02-14 | Los Angeles Angels v. Tampa Bay Rays -101 | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 19 h 17 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #924 Tampa Bay Rays over Los Angeles Angels (7:10pm EST) The Tampa Bay Rays had to trade David Price from a financial perspective, but I don't expect these players to raise the white flag this season. Nobody connects with his players better than Joe Maddon does, and he's stated that he thinks his team still has a good chance of qualifying for the postseason. Chris Archer gets the tough task of facing the Los Angeles Angels lineup today. He has a bulldog mentality on the mound, so I expect to see his A-game tonight against one of the top offenses. Archer has flown a little bit under the radar despite flashing some great numbers. He holds a 3.37 ERA in 21 starts in 2014 on the heels of a season in which he posted a 3.22 ERA. That's not easy in the American League, and there aren't many hurlers that can top that over the last two seasons. The Angels counter with C.J. Wilson, who is making his first start after coming off of the disabled list with an ankle injury. It might take Wilson a couple of innings to get his bearings again, so the Rays have a good chance to jump out to an early lead in this game. Archer shouldn't need much support, so I like Tampa tonight. |
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08-02-14 | Minnesota Twins v. Chicago White Sox -123 | Top | 8-6 | Loss | -123 | 19 h 16 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #928 Chicago White Sox over Minnesota Twins (7:10pm EST) Neither of these teams is playing for anything this season, but that doesn't mean we can't find an advantage in this matchup. There isn't much differentiation between the White Sox and Twins overall, but I do give Chicago the edge offensively (especially with Joe Mauer out). But the biggest edge in this game is on the mound. Scott Carroll doesn't have very good numbers on the season, but he's getting better every start. Over his last four outings, the 29-year old has a 2.38 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. Three of those four starts were on the road as well, including his last outing against these same Twins. He pitched six innings in that game while allowing just a single run on four hits and a walk. His confidence is growing and Carroll could be a nice guy to ride down the stretch for bettors. Yohan Pino gets the nod for the Twins. He's had a mediocre season after a career in the minor leagues for eight years. He doesn't offer anything fancy and has a propensity to give up the long ball as well. The White Sox are a swing for the fences kind of team, so they match up extremely well here. Take the home team at a very fair price. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-01-14 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Houston Astros +105 | 1-3 | Win | 105 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
10-unit Play Take #974 Houston Astros over Toronto Blue Jays (8:10pm EST) The Toronto Blue Jays are having a great year and would be in the playoffs if the season ended today. But many of their players are not happy. That's because the Jays stood still when all of the contending teams around them got better before the trade deadline yesterday. Team chemistry is something that doesn't get discussed much in baseball, but it does impact performance and especially in an instance like this. Clearly the Jays could've added a piece or two with the talent they have in their system, but they opted to go with what they had instead. And that could set this team down a difficult path the rest of the way given the fact that the team thought they needed more help. They get the Houston Astros again today and they have a tough matchup in Collin McHugh. The right-hander has flown way under the radar this season, but he's posted a very good 3.45 ERA and 1.12 WHIP pitching in the toughest division in baseball. He has excellent stuff that he's used to amass a 10.4 strikeout rate per nine innings of work. The Jays don't have several key bats in their lineup including Edwin Encarnacion, Adam Lind and Brett Lawrie. As a result, McHugh should keep Toronto at bay and give his team an excellent chance to win at home. Take the Astros as the small underdogs. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-31-14 | St. Louis Cardinals +103 v. San Diego Padres | 6-2 | Win | 103 | 4 h 7 m | Show | |
6-unit Play Take #903 St. Louis Cardinals over San Diego Padres (3:40pm EST) The St. Louis Cardinals haven't lived up to expectations so far this season. But they're still right there in the mix for a playoff spot and I think they have a great chance to get in. The hitting has been the biggest problem for St. Louis, as they are 14th in the NL in runs scored ahead of just the Padres. Several guys are having subpar seasons and the team isn't hitting anywhere close to what they did last season with runners in scoring position. But the good news is that the offense can't get any worse and the track records of the guys in their lineup points to improvement down the stretch. They also have several young guys they can mix into the lineup and shake things up a bit. The pitching has been solid and today Shelby Miller gets the ball. Miller hasn't had a stellar 2014 season, but I like his chances today against a meager San Diego lineup. The Padres are dead last in baseball in runs scored and are 50 runs behind the Cardinals. To make matters worse, they are also without Carlos Quentin who is on the disabled list and they traded away Chase Headley last week. Odrisamer Despaigne makes his seventh start of the year for San Diego. Despaigne has posted a miniscule 1.66 ERA thus far, but don't let that fool you. He's put on plenty of baserunners and has fortunately managed to escape several jams. He's only striking out 4.7 batters per nine innings against 3.8 walks. That ratio isn't going to get the job done at the big league level. Despaigne wasn't very good in the minor leagues, so it was sort of a head-scratcher that he was promoted this soon. He's eventually going to get exposed and I think tonight could be that night. It's hard to believe the Cardinals are underdogs in this one, even without leader Yadier Molina. The Cardinals are the superior team and the starting pitchers are basically a wash. That means the offenses and bullpens will likely determine the outcome. Given that the Padres just dealt Joe Thatcher and Huston Street, I give St. Louis the edge in the pen. Offensively, the Cards are superior and it's not even close. Add it all up and we're on the Cardinals for our July Game. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-30-14 | Atlanta Braves v. Los Angeles Dodgers -166 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #962 Los Angeles Dodgers over Atlanta Braves (10:10pm EST) The Los Angeles Dodgers have finally climbed to the top of the NL West, where everyone expected to see them when the season began. Los Angeles is 30-19 over their last 49 games and getting contributions from nearly their entire 25-man roster. There's been tons of trade speculation surrounding this team, but it hasn't affected their focus. Zack Greinke has been one of the main catalysts as he's dominated the NL this season with a 2.74 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. He is the best home pitcher in baseball over the last five seasons, returning bettors a healthy profit despite some high prices. Los Angeles is 19-4 in Greinke's last 23 home starts. The Braves are playing good baseball right now as well, and they'll trot out Alex Wood in today's matchup. Wood comes in 7-8 with a 3.44 ERA in 24 games, including some bullpen work. Despite a great start to his career, I'm not sure if Wood is going to develop in a front line type of starter. His stuff is good but not great, and he might not have the arsenal to be a starter. He's going to have his hands full with a Dodgers lineup that is clicking well right now. The Braves are just 3-7 in his last 10 starts, including 1-4 on the road. This one has Dodgers written all over it. |
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07-30-14 | Oakland A's v. Houston Astros +132 | 1-8 | Win | 132 | 1 h 50 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #966 Houston Astros over Oakland A's (2:10pm EST) The Houston Astros aren't playing great baseball right now, but there's one guy that they consistently count on to keep them in the game. That's today's starter Dallas Keuchel. The young left-hander has put together a sensational season at 9-7 with a 3.11 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 19 starts. He's coming off of a great effort against the Marlins where he pitched seven innings without allowing a run and striking out seven with no walks. He'll go up against the best offense in baseball in the A's in this one. Oakland has been cruising all season long, but today's going to be tough as Jason Hammel hasn't found his rhythm yet with the team. Hammel has a 7.11 ERA and 2.13 WHIP in his three starts with the A's. He has walked eight batters in those outings and looks like a completely different pitcher than he did with the Cubs in the first half of the season. The Astros lineup isn't very intimidating, but they won't need much with Keuchel toeing the rubber. This price is too high for a stud pitcher throwing at home. Take the Astros. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-29-14 | Milwaukee Brewers v. Tampa Bay Rays -131 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #930 Tampa Bay Rays over Milwaukee Brewers (7:10pm EST) The Tampa Bay Rays are red hot and the price can't be set high enough on their games. The Rays are 21-6 over their last 27 contests and have jumped back into contention in the AL playoff race. Their pitching has been the key as they haven't allowed more than four runs in a game since July 11th. Alex Cobb isn't putting up the type of numbers that everyone expected, but they're certainly still respectable. He's 6-6 with a 3.76 ERA, but he's coming off of his best performance of the season in his last start against the Cardinals. Cobb went seven innings without allowing a run and had 10 strikeouts without a walk. That's the kind of start that builds tons of confidence and should get him back on track. The Milwaukee Brewers have been coasting after getting off to a hot start in 2014. They were 20-7 to start the campaign, but are just 39-41 since then. Matt Garza takes the ball for them today, and he hasn't looked like himself for the most part this season. His strikeout rate is down, walk rate is up and he has been wildly inconsistent from start to start. I'm not sure which Garza we'll see today, but the Rays certainly are familiar with the right-hander from his days in Tampa. It's hard to get in the way of this Rays team right now. The price is a little steep, but I still see value. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-28-14 | Colorado Rockies v. Chicago Cubs -143 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #960 Chicago Cubs over Colorado Rockies (8:05pm EST) The Chicago Cubs haven't been favored this big very often in 2014, but in this instance I think it's warranted. The Colorado Rockies have completely fallen apart and things seem to be getting worse by the day. They are 17-41 over their last 58 games, which is the worst mark in the majors since over that span. Injuries have been a big part of it, and they continue to pile up. Superstar Troy Tulowitzki just landed on the disabled list and Carlos Gonzalez is also banged up. Rookie left-hander Yohan Flande will try to keep the Rockies in it today, but he hasn't looked very good so far. He has a 7.20 ERA in his four starts with only 3.2 strikeouts per nine innings. The Cubs don't have a great offense, but they do hit well against southpaws this season. Tsuyoshi Wada gets the ball for the Cubs and I like what I've seen from him. Wada was impressive at Triple-A Iowa and has shown some good stuff up at the big league level. He still has plenty to learn, but a depleted Colorado lineup should make things easier on him. I'm not excited about backing the Cubs very often, but this one makes sense from a value perspective. Take Chicago at home. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-27-14 | Chicago White Sox +115 v. Minnesota Twins | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 16 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #919 Chicago White Sox over Minnesota Twins (2:10pm EST) The two worst clubs in the AL Central battle today in Minneapolis as the Twins host the White Sox. Chicago has done a great job staying around the .500 mark this season when most had counted them completely out. Jose Abreu has been a huge reason why, but they've also had several no name players make significant contributions. One of those guys is today's starter Scott Carroll. The right-hander doesn't have great numbers overall, but he's given the team over 73 innings of work and he's slowly getting gaining confidence. Carroll has a 2.70 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over his last three starts - two of which were on the road against quality competition (Red Sox and Indians). He does a good job of inducing lots of balls on the ground balls and keeps the ball inside the ballpark. Minnesota is still without Joe Mauer and they traded away Kendrys Morales, so Carroll should have a little easier time of it in this one. The Twins send rookie Yohan Pino to the hill. Pino has been a career minor-leaguer since 2006, and he probably doesn't get a shot in the big leagues with many other teams. He's just filling a spot for now, but Pino doesn't look like a guy that is going to be a long-term puzzle piece. Minnesota is just 2-7 since the All-Star break while the White Sox are 6-3. We'll go with the underdog today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-26-14 | Toronto Blue Jays v. New York Yankees -128 | 6-4 | Loss | -128 | 2 h 27 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #966 New York Yankees over Toronto Blue Jays (1:05pm EST) Chris Capuano will make his Yankees debut today in the Bronx against the Toronto Blue Jays. New York obviously saw something in the left-hander even though he struggled in the bullpen with the Red Sox. Capuano has always been an overachiever and a guy that has defied the odds. He's come back from some serious injuries when everyone counted him out and given good innings to several teams throughout his career. I don't think he's going to win any games by himself with the Yankees, but I'm not going to count him out as far as keeping his team in the game. The Yankees should be able to give him decent run support going up against a struggling Drew Hutchison. The right-hander is 6-9 with a 4.54 ERA overall, but it's his last couple of starts that have raised some eyebrows. Hutchison has allowed six earned runs in each of his last two outings and has a 6.97 ERA over his last six starts. The Jays are also without three key components in their lineup today - Edwin Encarnacion, Adam Lind and Brett Lawrie. This is probably going to be a back and forth game, but in the end I like the Yankees to come out on top. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-25-14 | Miami Marlins v. Houston Astros -125 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -125 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #930 Houston Astros over Miami Marlins (8:10pm EST) The Houston Astros and Miami Marlins won't be making a postseason appearance this season, but both squads have quality youngsters and some hope for the future. As far as 2014, I like the way the Astros have steadily improved as the season has progressed. Houston was a putrid 12-27 on May 12th and has gone a respectable 30-33 since then. They still have a long way to go, but with the talent they keep bringing up from the minors it will be sooner than most people think before they are contenders. The Marlins, on the other hand, got off to a quick start this season and have been slowly fading since. Miami is just 9-14 over their last 23 games overall. It will be a battle of left-handers today as Dallas Keuchel battles Brad Hand. Keuchel has had a breakthrough campaign at 9-6 with a 3.29 ERA but is still floating under the radar a little bit. He nearly made the AL All-Star team on a loaded pitching staff. Hand has been fortunate to get a chance in the Miami rotation. He was awful in the bullpen earlier in the season, and has just simply been mediocre since becoming a starter. He has a 4.86 ERA and 1.64 WHIP overall. One big difference between these teams is the divisions they play in. The AL West is clearly the best division in baseball with three teams that would be in the playoffs if they started today. As a result, the Astros have played one of the tougher schedules in baseball. Conversely, the Marlins have played against a mediocre NL East division. If we flip-flopped these teams in the other's divisions, the records could easily be flip-flopped as well. I think Houston is the better team overall and they have the much better starting pitcher on the mound today. Throw in the home field advantage and the interleague edge, and the Astros are the choice here as our Interleague Game of the Year. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-24-14 | San Diego Padres -121 v. Chicago Cubs | 13-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #955 San Diego Padres over Chicago Cubs (8:05pm EST) The San Diego Padres don't have a lot going for them these days. They are currently 12 games under the .500 mark, they just traded away two of their better players in Huston Street and Chase Headley, and there aren't too many young prospects in the minor leagues to get too excited about. The San Diego franchise is probably in worse shape than just about any organization in baseball at the moment, but that doesn't mean we won't get some value in betting them. In fact, we could see more value with a tendency to overreact at just how bad they are. The Padres aren't going to be contending for the postseason any time soon, but they still have some guys who can play. One of those guys is today's starting pitcher Tyson Ross. The 27-year old right-hander has put together his best season yet with a 2.70 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. He also made the All-Star team and is pitching better now than he has at any point in his career. The Cubs have had problems with right-handers this season and Ross does a good job of keeping the ball down. That is essential is Wrigley Field, where the wind can carry out some cheap home runs. Chicago will trot out Edwin Jackson to the hill - one of the worst starters in the NL. Jackson is 5-10 with a 5.61 ERA and is one of the most inconsistent pitchers in baseball on an annual basis. The Padres don't have any punch in their hapless lineup, but Jackson could get lit up by a Triple-A team with his wildness. San Diego will be the better team today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-23-14 | Boston Red Sox -102 v. Toronto Blue Jays | 4-6 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 60 m | Show | |
10-unit Play Take #917 Boston Red Sox over Toronto Blue Jays (7:05pm EST) The Boston Red Sox had a miserable start to the 2014 season, but they're finally starting to play to their talent level. Boston has won eight of 10 and is creeping back into the race in the AL. They're finally swinging the bats well averaging nearly six runs per game during that stretch. Clay Buchholz gets the ball today and he's finally rounding into form as well. He's given three straight solid efforts and his confidence looks like it is back after a very shaky start to the season. In his last three outings, Buchholz has an impressive 22-1 K/BB ratio to go along with a 3.27 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. Today he'll get a Blue Jays lineup that is really banged up without Edwin Encarnacion, Adam Lind and Brett Lawrie. That's a lot of punch on the disabled list, so Buchholz should be able to navigate a Toronto lineup that is usually fairly dangerous. On the other side is R.A. Dickey for the Jays. Dickey has had a solid season, but is still trying to regain the form he had when he pitched for the Mets. His knuckleball still doesn't dance like it used to and hitters have made some adjustments as well. With as well as the Red Sox are seeing the ball, I think they can do some damage today. We'll take Boston in this spot. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-22-14 | Houston Astros +240 v. Oakland A's | 3-2 | Win | 240 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
2-unit Play Take #973 Houston Astros over Oakland A's (10:05pm EST) There's no question that the Oakland A's are baseball's best team. At 61-37, the A's have crushed the competition with a +150 run differential to prove it. They have no weaknesses and have seemingly getting even better as the season has gone on. There also is no debate that the Houston Astros are still not very good at 41-58 on the season. They are a young bunch that still has plenty to learn before they can be a competitive team. While these teams are on the extreme ends of the spectrum, the line on this game still feels awfully tall. Scott Kazmir gets the ball for Oakland against Brett Oberholtzer of the Astros. That's definitely an edge for the A's, but Kazmir has pitched a little over his head recently. I don't expect him to maintain a tidy 2.38 ERA for much longer. Oberholtzer has nice potential and I can see him improving in each start. In fact, the entire Astros team is getting better by the day. They are one of the youngest teams in baseball and could do a great job of playing spoiler down the stretch. We'll take a shot with Houston here at the huge price. |
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07-22-14 | Texas Rangers v. New York Yankees -175 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #964 New York Yankees over Texas Rangers (7:05pm EST) The handicap on tonight's game between the Texas Rangers and New York Yankees is simple. The Rangers will trot out the worst starting pitcher in baseball to the mound in this one, and the betting markets aren't adjusting quite enough. Nick Martinez has been blasted ever since entering the rotation, and tonight he comes off fresh off of the disabled list. Martinez is 1-6 with a 5.10 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in 16 games. But the really scary numbers are his strikeout and walk rates. Martinez is striking out just 3.9 batters per nine innings against 4.2 walks. That's a recipe for disaster, so things aren't going to get much better for the right-hander any time soon. The Yankees have been swinging the bats a little bit better and I don't think they'll have any problems getting to Martinez today. Take New York. |
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07-22-14 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. Pittsburgh Pirates -111 | Top | 7-12 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #952 Pittsburgh Pirates over Los Angeles Dodgers (7:05pm EST) After a slow start to the 2014 campaign, the Pittsburgh Pirates are coming on strong. They are 34-21 over their last 55 games and they are the most impressive team in the NL over that span. Timely hitting and consistent pitching has been the key as this roster has great chemistry overall. The Pirates also play the game the right way and our as fundamentally sound as they come. They've been getting contributions from the entire 25-man roster, including some surprise production from today's starter Vance Worley. The right-hander had basically been written off after a terrible year in Minnesota last season. But the Pirates worked with him in the minor leagues and Worley has come through with a 3.38 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in six games. His control has been impeccable as he's walking just 1.3 batters per nine innings - less than half of his career average. Today he'll get a banged up Dodgers lineup that could be without Yasiel Puig and/or Hanley Ramirez. The Dodgers are starting to play better too, but I don't like their starter Josh Beckett today. Beckett has been dealing with a serious hip injury and has admitted that he's not 100%. That could be a huge issue as Beckett isn't a spring chicken anymore. The Pirates are one of the better hitting teams in the NL and should be able to capitalize if Beckett isn't quite right. Take Pittsburgh in this one as our Game. |
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07-21-14 | San Francisco Giants +120 v. Philadelphia Phillies | Top | 7-4 | Win | 120 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #901 San Francisco Giants over Philadelphia Phillies (7:05pm EST) The San Francisco Giants have put together a great season at 54-44 through the first 98 games. They've done it with a balanced effort and contributions from nearly the entire 25-man roster. One guy who they weren't sure they'd be able to count on coming into the 2014 season is today's starter Ryan Vogelsong. After a tough 2013 campaign with a 5.73 ERA, the right-hander has bounced back nicely this season. He has improved his strikeout and walk rates, and brought his ERA down to 3.86 in 19 starts. He'll get a Phillies team today that is more worried about who they are going to trade than they are with winning ballgames. The Phils are a mess right now at 43-55, and the rebuilding process is set to kick off soon. Cliff Lee is one of the guys that will get heavy attention and this is his first major league start back from the disabled list. I generally don't like betting against the crafty southpaw, but if there's a time to do it's now while he's rusty. The Giants have also hit lefties well this season overall. Philadelphia has been horrible at home this season at 19-29, which is the worst in the NL. The Giants, meanwhile, have been road warriors at 26-19. This one sets up well for San Francisco and we get a nice underdog price. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-20-14 | San Francisco Giants -138 v. Miami Marlins | 2-3 | Loss | -138 | 3 h 4 m | Show | |
5-unit Play Take #951 San Francisco Giants over Miami Marlins (1:10pm EST) Nobody closed the first half stronger than today's starter Tim Lincecum. The veteran right-hander went 4-0 in his last four starts with a sparkling 0.30 ERA and 0.63 WHIP. That's about as good as it gets for a starting pitcher unless your name is Clayton Kershaw. Lincecum will face a struggling Marlins team in Miami today. They have had a hard time scoring runs over the last month or so and are quickly falling out of contention in the process. The Marlins are just 3-9 in their last 12 games overall and are focusing more on the future than they are for 2014. Left-hander Brad Hand goes for Miami today. If you're making a list of the worst starters in the NL, Hand would definitely be near the top of the list. He enters today's action with a 5.26 ERA and 1.75 WHIP despite pitching most of his innings out of the bullpen this season. Why the Marlins promoted him to the rotation rather than someone from Triple-A is somewhat of a mystery. Hand clearly doesn't have as bright of a future in Miami, but the organization is being a bit stubborn here. The Giants should be able to take advantage as they've been a little bit better against lefties on the season. And if Lincecum can keep it going, this one could be a landslide victory. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-19-14 | Houston Astros +104 v. Chicago White Sox | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 45 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #923 Houston Astros over Chicago White Sox (7:10pm EST) Big pitching mismatch today in Chicago as the White Sox host the Houston Astros. Dallas Keuchel gets the ball for the Astros after a stellar first half effort. The left-hander comes in 9-5 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.19 WHIP and nearly made the AL All-Star team. He's been battling a wrist issue recently, but with the entire break to rest I expect Keuchel to pitch a great game against the White Sox today. Chicago hasn't been nearly as productive at the plate over recent weeks. They were one of the top hitting teams in baseball for about the first six weeks of the season, but they've been slowly dropping since. The Astros, meanwhile, continue to promote minor league talent from their system to the big leagues. As a result, their lineup is getting better and their guys should progress as the season goes on. Hector Noesi gets the nod for the White Sox. It's somewhat surprising that Noesi still has a job in the major leagues. He has a 5.26 ERA and has already pitched for three different teams in 2014. I will be shocked if he's still in the big league rotation come September, and he could lose his job with a couple of bad starts to begin the second half. The wrong team is favored in this game, so we'll take Houston. |
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07-19-14 | Kansas City Royals v. Boston Red Sox -119 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 36 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #920 Boston Red Sox over Kansas City Royals (7:10pm EST) You can probably write-off the Boston Red Sox for the postseason in 2014, but they've publicly stated that they are not interested in trading away assets just yet. I have a feeling those trades will eventually occur, but the team will be fighting hard up until then. But this selection is more about today's starter Rubby De La Rosa. The young right-hander has been extremely impressive while managing to stay under the radar at the same time. In six major league starts, De La Rosa has managed a tidy 2.89 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. He also has an impressive K/BB ratio and is more confident than expected given his experience level. Today he'll get a weak-hitting Royals lineup that is just 10th in the AL in runs scored. The Red Sox should be able to get him plenty of support against Kansas City starter Danny Duffy. The southpaw is getting better, but he still struggles with control from time to time. I don't think he's consistent enough to count on every start, so we'll look to play against him in this spot. The Red Sox aren't the better team overall, but with the huge edge on the mound and home field advantage, Boston is the play. |
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07-19-14 | Cincinnati Reds v. New York Yankees -125 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #930 New York Yankees over Cincinnati Reds (1:05pm EST) Today's interleague contest between the Cincinnati Reds and New York Yankees featured an overrated starting pitcher versus an underrated one. Alfredo Simon had one heck of a first half and was able to represent the NL in the All-Star game where he tossed a scoreless frame. But Simon is the dictionary definition of a fluke. All of his peripheral statistics point to a league-average pitcher. Simon has stranded an eye-popping 85% of baserunners and yielded one of the lower BABIPs in the league at .232. Those numbers will regress and so will Simon's overall production once that occurs. The Yankees haven't exactly been tearing it up at the plate overall this season, but they have plenty of capable hitters who are in line for bounce-back efforts in the second half. New additions Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann and Jacoby Ellsbury have fell short of expectations collectively, but adjusting to life in New York isn't easy. Now that they've been fully acclimated, they should put up the kind of production we're used to seeing from them. Newly-acquired Brandon McCarthy toes the rubber for the Yanks. He has a 4.80 ERA in 19 starts this season, but that doesn't represent what the right-hander brings to the table. He has an excellent K/BB ratio and knows how to attack major league hitters. He's been unfortunate with a high BABIP and low strand rate, but McCarthy will turn things around in a Yankee uniform. The Reds are missing Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips, which are the two biggest pieces in the Reds lineup. They will likely struggle until they can get those guys back. We like this price on New York today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-18-14 | Baltimore Orioles v. Oakland A's -157 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #978 Oakland A's over Baltimore Orioles (10:05pm EST) The players are back in action tonight for their first game since the All-Star break. The Baltimore Orioles had a great first half and are leading the AL East with a 52-42 mark. Their lineup and bullpen were the catalysts, and if they could add a top-level arm in the rotation then they could really make some noise come October. But as good as the Orioles have looked, the Oakland A's have been twice as good. Oakland is on pace for over 100 wins and they've earned it. There are simply no weaknesses in Oakland. They have the top offense in baseball, a great starting rotation and a lights out bullpen. Today's starter Jeff Samardzija was a great addition from the Cubs a few weeks back. He put up excellent numbers in Chicago and I expect him to continue that in the AL. He's a heavy groundball pitcher, which plays right into the hands of Oakland's superb infield defense. He'll also get plenty of run support, which was his biggest problem on the Cubs. The O's send right-hander Chris Tillman to the hill in this one. He's struggled mightily of late with his control. Over his last eight starts, Tillman has an ugly 20-19 K/BB ratio in 48.1 innings of work. He's managed to get out of plenty of jams in those starts, but he won't be able to survive with that kind of ratio for long. Oakland is a patient team at the plate and they will be able to exploit Tillman's shortcomings better than anyone else. The A's should pick up right where they left off before the break and get the win today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-13-14 | Miami Marlins v. New York Mets -142 | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 2 h 31 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #902 New York Mets over Miami Marlins (1:10pm EST) The Miami Marlins take on the New York Mets in the final game before the All-Star break this afternoon. These teams are rated similarly overall and they have nearly identical records, but I like the Mets today for a couple of reasons. First and foremost, they have the much better starting pitcher going in this one. Jacob deGrom has really impressed me in his 11 starts since being called up. He enters today's contest with a 3.38 ERA and has an excellent 8.6 strikeouts per nine innings rate. He's also coming off of his best performance of the season - seven shutout innings versus Atlanta where at he struck out 11 batters while walking none. His confidence has been growing in each start and it now has to be sky high. The Marlins haven't been hitting much lately, as some of the guys that played a little over their heads early on in the season are starting to come back down to earth. Brad Hand toes the rubber for the Marlins. I'm a little bit surprised that he's been inserted into the Miami rotation considering he couldn't even get the job done in the bullpen. He has a 5.09 ERA and 1.73 WHIP overall this season. He had a decent outing last time out versus the Diamondbacks, but I don't trust Hand. His peripheral numbers aren't good and he hasn't looked comfortable on the mound. The Mets are playing better baseball of late winning six out of seven games. I expect them to close out the first half of the season with one more victory today at home. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-12-14 | Washington Nationals -125 v. Philadelphia Phillies | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #959 Washington Nationals over Philadelphia Phillies (7:15pm EST) He isn't stealing headlines like he used to, but Stephen Strasburg is still one of the top young arms in the game today. The 25-year old is just 7-6 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.21 WHIP this season, which aren't bad numbers but they don't paint a picture of how dominant Strasburg has been. He has one of the highest BABIP in the majors at .341 and his strand rate is at a career low 70%. If you normalize those figures, Strasburg has an ERA nearly a full run lower. As a result, we're getting a little bit of value on the star pitcher until his ERA starts coming down. Today he'll face a Phillies lineup that is full of veterans with one foot out the door. Philadelphia is mulling over which guys to trade away as they look ahead towards the future. It's certainly affected the performance of the team and its chemistry, with the Phils sitting in last place in the NL East. Cole Hamels is one guy who is unsure of whether or not he will be moved. The southpaw has been one of the stable forces for the team over the years, but how valuable is he during a rebuild. The Nats are heating up offensively with the return of Bryce Harper to the lineup, and are now 100% healthy for the first time all season long. This was one of the favorites before the season and I expect them to start playing like it now. With the Phils trending downward, this line seems a little bit short. Take the Nationals here. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-11-14 | Miami Marlins v. New York Mets -116 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #908 New York Mets over Miami Marlins (7:10pm EST) Two teams that are looking more at the future than the present will do battle today in Citi Field. The Miami Marlins have managed to stay around the .500 mark for most of the season, but they've started to slide a little bit of late. Their offense hasn't been as productive as it was earlier this season, and they'll have a tough challenge in front of them today. Zack Wheeler of the Mets gets the ball on the mound today. I really like what I've seen from Wheeler this season. He's improved every area of his game, including increasing his strikeout rate, decreasing his walks and inducing more groundballs. He hasn't always gotten the results out there, but I expect a big second half from the young right-hander. The Marlins have really struggled away from home over the last few seasons, and 2014 is no exception. Miami is just 17-25 on the road this year, while the Mets are a game from .500 at home. This line feels a little bit light, so we'll take the Mets in this one. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-10-14 | Oakland A's v. San Francisco Giants +114 | 6-1 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 37 m | Show | |
2-unit Play Take #972 San Francisco Giants over Oakland A's (3:45pm EST) Tim Hudson takes on his former team this afternoon in the Battle of the Bay. It's been a tough run for the San Francisco Giants as they are just 8-20 in their last 28 games. But Hudson is the kind of guy that doesn't get caught up in all of that and is a reliable veteran that gives maximum effort each start. He comes into today's game 7-5 with a 2.53 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 17 starts. The A's have a heck of a lineup, but they've a bit over the last 10 games as they've averaged just 3.4 runs per game during that stretch. That's over a run and a half under their average. All-Star Scott Kazmir gets the ball for Oakland. Kazmir has put up similar numbers as Hudson has this season, but I think what Hudson is doing is more sustainable. Kazmir has a ridiculously high strand rate and an extremely low BABIP, both of which point to an ERA that will start climbing. The Giants are 38-16 in their last 54 interleague home games and I like their chances again today. Take San Francisco. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-08-14 | Houston Astros +129 v. Texas Rangers | 8-3 | Win | 129 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #969 Houston Astros over Texas Rangers (8:05pm EST) The best team in Texas is the Houston Astros, but the betting markets haven't come to that realization just yet. With all of the guys the Rangers have on the disabled list, the Astros have the more talented roster. In the standings, the Rangers are only two games better than the Astros in the AL West. Throw out that miserable April from Houston and they have a far better record. Right-hander Brad Peacock gets the ball for the Astros today and I like how he has progressed. His numbers aren't anything special (2-5 with a 4.38 ERA and 1.51 WHIP), but Peacock is gaining confidence and his approach to major league hitters is miles better than it was last season. I expect a good second half from him, as well as from the Astros as a team. For the Rangers, the freefall continues. They've now dropped 16 of 19 contests, including a 12-7 loss to these Astros yesterday. You can't blame manager Ron Washington with all of the injuries endured. No team has been dealt as many blows as they have, and Wash kept them at the .500 mark up until mid-June. But now the organization is looking ahead to the future and is listening to any trade offers for their veterans. It's a unique position that the Rangers aren't used to dealing with, so I think it will adversely affect the performance on the field. Rookie Phil Irwin will make his season debut today in Arlington. He's only made one major league start (last season with Pirates) in his major league career. His minor league numbers haven't been very impressive, but this move was necessary as Irwin is replacing the weakest link in all of baseball - Nick Martinez. Irwin struggles with control, so I expect him to pitch himself into a few jams today. The Astros lineup is improving by the day and should surpass Texas in runs scored in a matter of time. All in all, this Astros team is just better than the Rangers. They also have the better hurler on the mound, making this an exceptional play at a plus price. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-07-14 | Atlanta Braves -125 v. New York Mets | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -125 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #901 Atlanta Braves over New York Mets (7:10pm EST) The Atlanta Braves head to the Big Apple to take on the New York Mets in the first of four games. The Braves are playing their best baseball of the season right now with nine wins in their last 10 games, including a three-game sweep of the Mets just a week ago. Timely hitting and some excellent pitching has been the key to their surge. Today's starter Mike Minor hasn't been one of the pitchers that have stepped up however. It's been quite the opposite in fact, as Minor has a 7.55 ERA over his last five outings. But his peripheral numbers haven't been nearly as bad, and Minor hasn't looked any different on the mound this season compared to prior years. I fully expect him to bounce back and today versus the Mets is a good place to start. The Mets have dropped eight of 11 and are looking to Daisuke Matsuzaka to keep them in the game today. Matsuzaka was effective as a reliever but he's been terrible since joining the rotation. Out of the pen Daisuke posted a 2.22 ERA, but as a starter he's at 4.81. He hasn't made it past the sixth inning in any start and that opens the door to the Mets awful bullpen. The Braves should take care of business offensively, and I also expect Minor to get back on track. Take Atlanta. |
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07-07-14 | Baltimore Orioles v. Washington Nationals -173 | 8-2 | Loss | -173 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #926 Washington Nationals over Baltimore Orioles (7:05pm EST) |
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07-06-14 | Tampa Bay Rays -117 v. Detroit Tigers | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
5-unit Play Take #965 Tampa Bay Rays over Detroit Tigers (8:10pm EST) David Price may be making his last start in a Tampa Bay Rays uniform today, but he hasn't let trade rumors get to him. Price is throwing the ball better than he has at any point in his entire career. Over his last six starts, the lengthy southpaw has a dominating 63-9 K/BB ratio to go along with a 2.12 ERA. The Rays are also playing much better as a team of late, winning 11 of 15 contests. They don't have much of a shot to get back into contention this season, but manager Joe Maddon is doing a good job of keeping his team motivated. Today they get Rick Porcello and the Detroit Tigers. Porcello has been on a very nice run of his own lately, twirling back-to-back shutouts in his last two starts. He hasn't been nearly as dominant as Price in his recent outings, but he has thrown 25 consecutive scoreless innings. The Tigers have also been rolling as a team recently, with 12 wins in their last 16 games. With both pitchers throwing like they are, I have a strong feeling this one comes down to the respective bullpens. And if that's the case, the Rays have the decided advantage. I also trust Price more than I do Porcello, and am shocked we get him this cheap. Take Tampa Bay as our 5-unit Game. |
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07-06-14 | San Francisco Giants v. San Diego Padres -120 | 5-3 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 40 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #962 San Diego Padres (-125) over San Francisco Giants (4:10pm EST)Â |
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07-05-14 | Kansas City Royals v. Cleveland Indians -115 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #922 Cleveland Indians over Kansas City Royals (7:05pm EST) Two AL Central foes go at it today in Cleveland as the Indians host the Royals. In breaking down these teams, both have different strengths and weaknesses. But when you put it all together, you get two teams that are very evenly matched overall. The Royals win with a decent rotation, a very good bullpen and excellent defense. The Indians do it more with starting pitching and their offense. Today the Tribe has a big advantage on the mound, but it's not readily apparent to most. Jeremy Guthrie has had a solid season for the Royals in 2014, but it hasn't come without some fortune. Guthrie has stranded 79% of runners on base this season (amongst the tops in the league) and he's allowed a low .269 BABIP as well. Once those numbers creep back closer to his career levels, you'll see Guthrie's 3.69 ERA begin to rise. The Indians have hit right-handers extremely well this season, so I expect plenty of opportunities for them today. T.J. House gets the ball for Cleveland and he's been terrific filling in so far. He's much better than his 4.28 ERA indicates and has made five of his six starts on the road this season. Today he's at home against a Royals club that has been futile at the plate for the majority of the season. They have been even worse against southpaws, so House should be able to control this game. Cleveland has one of the better home records in the AL at 23-16, and they have the better pitcher going in my opinion. This line feels a bit light, so we're on the Tribe. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-05-14 | Milwaukee Brewers v. Cincinnati Reds -129 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -129 | 5 h 30 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #908 Cincinnati Reds over Milwaukee Brewers (4:10pm EST) The Cincinnati Reds are starting to play like everyone expected, but we're still seeing some reasonable lines on them. Cincinnati is 15-7 over their last 22 contests, including taking the first game of this big series versus the Milwaukee Brewers on Friday. We like them again here with the red hot Homer Bailey taking the hill. Bailey is 4-1 over his last seven starts with a 3.23 ERA and 44-12 K/BB ratio. His velocity is also creeping up and you can see the confidence coming back after a slow start to the 2014 campaign. Matt Garza goes for Milwaukee and he's been mediocre at best for most of the season. I give Bailey the check mark in this one and I also give small edges to the Reds as far as offense and bullpen goes. With the Reds at home, I think this line should be about 10-15 cents higher. Take Cincinnati. |
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07-04-14 | Milwaukee Brewers v. Cincinnati Reds -113 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #958 Cincinnati Reds over Milwaukee Brewers (7:10pm EST) The Cincinnati Reds head back home to begin a three-game series with the Milwaukee Brewers this weekend. This is a really big series for the Reds, who were just swept by the Padres earlier this week. It was still a successful road trip overall, as the Reds went 6-4 over the 10 games. But they are fourth place in the NL Central right now and have plenty of work to do to catch up. Alfredo Simon makes the start for Cincinnati and he's had a phenomenal year thus far. He enters today's contest 10-3 with a 2.81 ERA and 1.05 WHIP, although he has been a bit fortunate. His peripheral numbers aren't as impressive as he's only striking out 5.6 batters per nine innings and he's been lucky with a .235 BABIP. As a result, we should see Simon's ERA steadily climb as the season wears on. However, he is still a guy that can pitch effectively and keep an ERA in the 3's. I like him better than Milwaukee starter Kyle Lohse in this spot. Lohse hasn't been as sharp of late, evidenced by his declining strikeout rate. He hasn't been getting lit up necessarily, but it wouldn't surprise me to see it happen today. Even after getting swept in San Diego, the Reds are still surging with a 14-7 record in their last 21 games. Their offense has been clicking and they've gotten the big hits when needed. The Reds really need to win this series and I think they grab the first game on Friday. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-03-14 | Texas Rangers -111 v. Baltimore Orioles | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -111 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #909 Texas Rangers over Baltimore Orioles (7:05pm EST) There's no question that the Texas Rangers have fallen on hard times. Injuries eventually got the best of them, and now they've lost 12 of 14 games to drop 10 games below the .500 mark. But if they have one guy who's going to break a cold streak it's today's starter Yu Darvish. The Japanese sensation is 8-4 with a 2.42 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 15 starts. The line one this game is more reflective of what the team has done recently, so I think we're getting a huge discount with Darvish pitching. He'll face an Orioles team that is a bit overrated in my book. The O's are 45-39, but the AL East has surprisingly turned into one of the worst divisions in all of baseball. Wei-Yin Chen toes the rubber for Baltimore today. Chen is probably Baltimore's best starting pitcher, but that's not exactly saying a lot. He has struggled a bit of late, with a 6.32 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in his last three starts. The Rangers offense isn't as potent as it has been in recent years, but they still pose a decent threat. With Darvish backing them up, I think the Rangers can finally break through today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-02-14 | Chicago Cubs v. Boston Red Sox -153 | 16-9 | Loss | -153 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #980 Boston Red Sox over Chicago Cubs (7:10pm EST)Â |
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07-02-14 | Texas Rangers +136 v. Baltimore Orioles | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #971 Texas Rangers over Baltimore Orioles (7:05pm EST) The Texas Rangers send a relative unknown to the hill today in Miles Mikolas. He isn't a very highly touted prospect in the Rangers organization and wasn't projected to get a chance in 2014. So it's difficult to get a good reading on what we'll see from Mikolas against the Baltimore Orioles today. But that might not matter, as this selection is all about Chris Tillman. The O's right-hander has looked very shaky over the last month or so and has admitted as much. He's had some good outings recently, but he's definitely mixed in some bad ones as well. One of the more telling statistics is his K/BB ratio over his last six starts - a hideous 11-13. That just won't get the job done and he will eventually pay for it. The Rangers don't have quite as potent as an offense as they're used to, but they can still put some runs on the board against a weak pitcher. If Mikolas can just get Texas through five innings without getting buried, I like their chances against Tillman. The line is a bit too high, so Texas is the play. |
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07-02-14 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Pittsburgh Pirates -146 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #956 Pittsburgh Pirates over Arizona Diamondbacks (7:05pm EST) The Pittsburgh Pirates made a dramatic come from behind win last night versus the Arizona Diamondbacks. They trailed 2-0 heading into the 9th and were able to put three runs on the board to get the victory 3-2. It's been a horrific season for the D-Backs, but a game like that brings them to a new low. Ike Davis singled in the game-winning run which led to the standard walk-off celebration for the Pirates. It was one of those wins that creates energy that can carry forward into the next day, and I fully expect that to be the case in this one. The Pirates have been on quite a roll going 14-7 over their last 21 games and are moving up the standings quickly. Charlie Morton gets the nod for them today and he was dominant in his last outing versus the Rays. He went seven innings in that start allowing just two earned runs and striking out 11 batters with just one walk. It was his best effort of the season and a huge confidence builder. Arizona counters with Chase Anderson. The young right-hander looked really good in his first couple of starts after getting called up, but he's been mediocre of late as the league has made some adjustments. I'm not sure his teammates will give him much support after getting the wind knocked out them last night. This one has a Pirates winner written all over it. |
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07-02-14 | Cleveland Indians v. Los Angeles Dodgers -147 | 5-4 | Loss | -147 | 4 h 57 m | Show | |
07-02-14 | Seattle Mariners v. Houston Astros +109 | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 42 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #970 Houston Astros over Seattle Mariners (2:10pm EST)Â |
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07-01-14 | Milwaukee Brewers v. Toronto Blue Jays -125 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 3 h 48 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #926 Toronto Blue Jays over Milwaukee Brewers (1:05pm EST) The Milwaukee Brewers and Toronto Blue Jays are two of the biggest surprises of the 2014 season and on Tuesday they will meet in an interleague battle. Both of these teams have been impressive, with the Jays at 45-39 and the Brewers at 51-33 through 84 games. But even though they have a worse record, I like what Toronto has done a little more. They have played a difficult schedule so far and their run differential isn't far off from Milwaukee's. They've also dealt with more injuries than the Brewers have, and their depth has stepped up when needed. Today's game features a huge pitching advantage in Toronto's favor. Drew Hutchison takes the mound for the Jays. He's been a bright spot this season with a 4.00 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 16 starts. He throws the ball extremely hard and has been getting hitters out with the hard stuff, but he's learning how to pitch along the way. Once he starts figuring things out, he's going to be a tough guy to face. The Brewers go with struggling Marco Estrada today. Over his last six starts, the right-hander has a 6.94 ERA and his control has been erratic. On the season he's all the way up to a 5.06 ERA and the Brewers have had discussions about sending him down. Toronto has one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball - not exactly the group of hitters you want to see when you are trying to get back on track. Toronto is 3rd in runs scored in the majors and they lead in home runs. There's a chance Carlos Gomez misses this game for the Brewers, which makes the Toronto side even more enticing. Either way, we like the Blue Jays to grab the win here at a reasonable price. |
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06-30-14 | Seattle Mariners v. Houston Astros -102 | Top | 10-4 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #966 Houston Astros over Seattle Mariners (8:10pm EST) Taijuan Walker finally makes his 2014 debut for the Mariners and Seattle fans are excited. Walker has been one of the most highly-touted prospects in Seattle's system over the last couple of years. He made a brief cameo last season and performed well in three starts. Walker was slated to start the season in the big league rotation, but a shoulder injury put him in the disabled list. He's made eight starts in the minors before heading to the bigs, but he wasn't as dominant in Triple-A as most expected him to be. With all of the attention he has gotten so far, it may add some extra pressure on him in his first outing. He'll face an underrated Astros lineup that has increased its production as the season has went on. Collin McHugh will pitch for Houston and he's been one of the big surprises in 2014. McHugh has gone from relatively unknown to a guy who looks like he belongs in the All-Star game this season. He enters today's game with 2.86 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 12 starts, and is averaging 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings. He's still flying under the radar a bit, evidenced by the low price pitching at home today. We'll take the Astros in a game we see a lot of value. |
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06-29-14 | Los Angeles Angels -118 v. Kansas City Royals | 4-5 | Loss | -118 | 3 h 43 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #919 Los Angeles Angels over Kansas City Royals (2:10pm EST) The Los Angeles Angels have been flying under the radar a bit this season. They're stuck in second place in the AL West behind the Oakland A's, who have garnered quite a bit of attention. But a strong case can be made that the Angels are the second best team in baseball. They have a fantastic lineup, a very good starting rotation and a solid bullpen. They also play great defense and pay attention to the fundamentals of the game under manager Mike Scioscia. They're also on pace for over 90 wins playing in the toughest division in all of baseball. Today they face Jeremy Guthrie of the Kansas City Royals. Guthrie has pitched well of late, but I expect him to struggle with a deep Angel's lineup. He's a contact pitcher and when the Angels make contact, they usually hit it hard with their collection of sluggers. Guthrie has been fortunate with a 79% strand rate this season, which is over 5% higher than his career mark. You can't keep putting yourself in tough situations against major league hitters, as they will eventually make you pay. C.J. Wilson gets the ball for the Halos, and you can always count on him to get a max effort and keep his team in the game. He's 8-6 with a 3.70 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 16 starts. Those numbers stack up favorably with his career marks and I expect continued success. The Royals have really struggled at the plate this season and have been worse against southpaws. This line feels a little bit light, so we'll go with the Halos. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-28-14 | Boston Red Sox v. New York Yankees -150 | 2-1 | Loss | -150 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #980 New York Yankees over Boston Red Sox (7:15pm EST) Masahiro Tanaka goes up against the Boston Red Sox for the second time this season tonight in Yankee Stadium. A good argument can be made that Tanaka has been the best pitcher in baseball this season. It doesn't get much better than 11-2 with a 2.11 ERA and 0.96 WHIP pitching in the American League. Tanaka isn't going to be able to sustain those numbers as the league gets to see him more often, but I just don't envision a huge drop off either. Tanaka is a master at deception, changing speeds and putting the ball exactly where he wants it. Those aren't skills that every pitcher can boast, and Tanaka makes it look easy. The scary part is that he's only 25-years old and will certainly improve over time. The Red Sox have really struggled this season, but it's not because of today's starter Jon Lester. The left-handed ace is matching his production from last season's World Series team. This is a contract year for Lester, so this is certainly no surprise. But he has had some bumps in the road against the Yankees in his career, including his last outing versus New York where he allowed eight runs to cross the plate. I expect him to pitch better today, but it might be enough. You won't find a price this cheap for Tanaka at home very often. As a result, we'll back the Yankees in this game. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-28-14 | Atlanta Braves -116 v. Philadelphia Phillies | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 55 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #955 Atlanta Braves over Philadelphia Phillies (2:05pm EST) The Braves and Phillies get together in the first of two games on Saturday at Citizens Bank Park. It's hard to believe that these teams are only separated by five games in the standings right now. But don't expect that to last for long, as these teams should quickly diverge as the trading deadline nears. Philadelphia knows that they aren't quite good enough to compete for a playoff spot this season. They have too many aging veterans and not enough guys getting better. Several Phillies players will be in new uniforms come July, and that is certainly weighing on the chemistry of this team right now. The Phils are on the verge of a collapse and we want to get out in front of it before it's in the betting line. Ervin Santana against Roberto Hernandez is a huge advantage for the Braves and they also have the superior bullpen. Offensively, both squads have really been struggling so we'll call that a tossup. The price on this game isn't that far off from where it should be based on all of the current numbers, but we're looking for any way to fade Philadelphia right now. This is a game the Braves should win. |
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06-27-14 | TB GM2 -101 v. BAL GM2 | 1-4 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 60 m | Show | |
10-unit Play Take #919 Tampa Bay Rays over Baltimore Orioles (7:05pm EST) It hasn't been a good season for the Tampa Bay Rays, but this team isn't going to just roll over for their opponents the rest of the season. Manager Joe Maddon does an excellent job of keeping his team focused and loose at the same time. There is still plenty of talent on this club and they can still play the spoiler role for the rest of the AL. One talented arm is today's starter Jake Odorizzi. The young right-hander is getting better by the start and is quickly developing himself as a nice piece in the Rays rotation. He comes in with an awful 3-7 record, but it's clearly not his fault. He has a respectable 4.29 ERA and even better peripheral numbers. He's striking out a whopping 10.5 batters per nine innings, which puts him amongst the league leaders in the AL. He's also coming off of his best outing of the entire season last time out versus the Astros. In that game, Odorizzi pitched 7.1 innings without allowing a run and striking out 10. Today he gets the Baltimore Orioles. The O's have managed to stay in contention with some glaring holes in their starting rotation. Chris Tillman is one of those holes, and he'll get another start today. Tillman is struggling with his command right now in a big way. Over his last six starts, he has only 16 strikeouts and also has 16 walks. He's worked himself into several jams and has been fortunate to avoid catastrophe in most cases. Eventually it's going to catch up to him and the Rays have a patient enough lineup to make that happen. Huge mismatch on the mound today and I like Tampa to get the win in our 10-unit Game. |
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06-26-14 | Detroit Tigers -119 v. Texas Rangers | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #967 Detroit Tigers over Texas Rangers (8:05pm EST) The Texas Rangers have begun to slide but who can blame them? No team has endured more injuries than the Rangers have in 2014, and it's pretty amazing that Ron Washington was able to keep it together for this long. Texas has dropped seven straight games to their lowest point of the season. To make matters worse, they're in the toughest division in baseball so things probably aren't going to get any better. Today they send one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball to the mound in Nick Martinez. The 23-year old has been knocked around since entering the rotation over a month ago. In nine starts this season, Martinez has a 5.06 ERA and 1.63 WHIP. He's walking nearly as many batters as he strikes out and he doesn't induce many groundballs. There really isn't anything that Martinez is doing well at the moment, so he either needs to be sent back to the bullpen or down to the minor leagues. But as long as he's in the rotation, we'll continue to play against him. Today the Tigers will get their cracks against him. Detroit has suddenly turned it on with six straight wins, and the offense has really picked it up. Over their last six-game winning streak, Detroit is averaging 6.5 runs per contest. Rick Porcello gets the nod on the mound. He's putting together another solid season at 9-4 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. He has to redeem himself after the Rangers knocked him around pretty good in Detroit about a month ago. I'm confident that he will and that the Tigers will score plenty of runs to support him. This one could be over early on, as the Tigers should roll in our 6-unit June Game of the Week. |
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06-26-14 | New York Mets v. Pittsburgh Pirates -142 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #954 Pittsburgh Pirates over New York Mets (7:05pm EST) Vance Worley hasn't received much attention since being called up two weeks ago. But the 26-year old right-handed has been very impressive in 2014. At Triple-A, Worley dominated the opposition with a tremendous 43-4 K/BB ratio. That's about as good as it gets, even at the minor league level. In his first two starts in the bigs, Worley has posted a 1.98 ERA and 0.80 WHIP to go along with a 9-1 K/BB ratio. He's clearly improved his mechanics and his control is better than ever. He's still a bit under the radar, so the line on this game is still in a reasonable range. Daisuke Matsuzaka makes the start for the New York Mets. Matsuzaka has pitched much worse than his ERA will tell you this season. He's been extremely fortunate with a .225 BABIP against and just one home run allowed in 47 innings. He's walking 5.9 batters per nine innings, so Matsuzaka will eventually get torched. The Pirates have been swinging the bats very well after the arrival of Gregory Polanco. The 22-year old phenom is hitting .344 in his first 14 games and plays a great right field. In comparing these offenses, the Pirates are definitely a cut above the Mets. If this game happens to come down to the bullpens, put a check mark next to Pittsburgh as well. This is one of those games where everything points to one team, and that's the Pirates. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-25-14 | Atlanta Braves v. Houston Astros +126 | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #926 Houston Astros over Atlanta Braves (8:10pm EST)Â |
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06-25-14 | St. Louis Cardinals -122 v. Colorado Rockies | 9-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 52 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #903 St. Louis Cardinals over Colorado Rockies (3:10pm EST) We've been riding the St. Louis Cardinals quite a bit recently and it's paid off. The Cards have won 11 of 16 and are starting to look like the team everyone expected to see right out of the gate. They just suffered a couple of injuries in their starting rotation, but I don't think it's going to slow down their momentum very much. Today's starter Marco Gonzales was just called up from Double-A, where he dominated the competition. He posted a 1.89 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 13 starts to go along with a 78-18 K/BB ration. The jump to the majors is certainly a big one, but Gonzales is a southpaw with great stuff and I doubt the opposition will have a very good scouting report on him. The Rockies lineup is a mess right now with three key injuries, so Gonzales catches a nice break. They'll rely on a rookie of their own who was just called up - Yohan Flande. He's also a southpaw, but his numbers in the minor leagues aren't nearly as good. In fact, Flande hasn't posted an ERA below 4.00 in the minor leagues since 2000 in Single-A. That's definitely a problem and there's no way it was in the Rockies plans to bring up Flande at this point. But a late injury to Christian Bergman forced their hand. The lines on the Cardinals continue to be well below where they were last season, despite this being a better team. We also have the better pitcher on the mound. As a result, we'll take St. Louis once again at a reasonable price. |
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06-24-14 | Cleveland Indians v. Arizona Diamondbacks -122 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #980 Arizona Diamondbacks over Cleveland Indians (9:40pm EST) It's tough backing this Arizona Diamondbacks team right now, but we've found a really good spot tonight. Left-hander Wade Miley toes the rubber for the D-Backs and I really like what he's shown us this season. His ERA is 4.62, but that isn't representative of the way he has pitched in 2014. He has an excellent 93-32 K/BB ratio and a modest 1.28 WHIP. He's gotten into some trouble with the long ball, but a lot of that is just noise as he pitches in an extreme hitter's park. Miley should excel tonight as Cleveland doesn't have a lineup built to hit against southpaws. Cleveland is hitting just .239 against lefties this season - worst in the American League. The Tribe goes with Justin Masterson. He's had a shaky season marred by inconsistency, so it's hard to know what to expect from him today. Arizona is 14-4 in their last 18 interleague home games. The Indians are 16-43 in their last 59 interleague road games. This one sets up well for Arizona, so we'll lay the small price. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-24-14 | Atlanta Braves v. Houston Astros -102 | 3-2 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #978 Houston Astros (+100) over Atlanta Braves (8:10pm EST) The Houston Astros continue to get better by the day. They have one of the youngest rosters in baseball and plenty of talent to go around. All they need is experience and they will eventually develop into a contender. Right now they sit at 33-44, but don't let the record fool you. Over their last 38 games, the Astros are 21-17 despite struggling over the last week or so. Their roster now is a lot different than it was in April and early May, so I think the recent record is legitimate. Veteran Scott Feldman makes the start for Houston today against the Braves. He's 3-4 with a 3.95 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 12 starts. He's had a couple of rough outings here and there, but Feldman is the kind of anchor this young rotation needs. He's reliable and eats innings, and is a smart pitcher who knows how to attack major league hitters. The Braves have struggled with right-handed pitchers in 2014 and they will have to add an extra hitter to the lineup with the DH. That's not a good thing for manager Freddi Gonzalez, who doesn't have many good options on his bench. Aaron Harang takes the mound for Atlanta and he's really regressed of late. In his last three starts, Harang has a 6.35 ERA and 1.94 WHIP to go along with a 10-12 K/BB ratio. It's easily his worse stretch of the season and he's seemed to have lost the magic he had earlier in the year. The Astros are no longer pushovers offensively, so they should be able to take advantage of a struggling Harang. We'll play Houston as home underdogs here. |
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06-23-14 | St. Louis Cardinals -109 v. Colorado Rockies | Top | 8-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #907 St. Louis Cardinals over Colorado Rockies (8:40pm EST) Don't look now, but the defending National League champions are heating up. The Cards have won 10 of 14 and are making their move in the NL Central. This definitely shouldn't come as a surprise since this year's Cardinals roster is even better than last year's edition. But it seems like the betting markets still haven't fully reacted to the Cardinals playing better. Today they are very small favorite against a Colorado Rockies team that is decimated by injuries right now. The Rockies are missing three guys from the starting lineup and four starting pitchers. Since the end of the May, Colorado is just 7-19 and is now out of contention. Jhoulys Chacin toes the rubber for Colorado in this one and he's been a big disappointment so far in 2014. His velocity has tailed off and he has an ERA that is nearly a full run over his career level. There were some injury issues earlier in the season, so there's a good chance something is still lingering for the right-hander. St. Louis counters with Lance Lynn today. Lynn has been somewhat of an enigma at times, but when you look at his overall numbers they are certainly more than adequate. The 27-year old is 7-5 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in 15 starts. In his four-year career, he's always had an ERA in the 3's despite some shaky performances. The Cardinals bullpen has been pitching well, so if Lynn can go his usual six or seven innings without getting into major trouble, they should be in good shape. St. Louis has the advantage all around, so we'll take them at a nice price. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-21-14 | Texas Rangers v. Los Angeles Angels -200 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #928 Los Angeles Angels (-200) over Texas Rangers (10:05pm EST) Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-21-14 | Pittsburgh Pirates -118 v. Chicago Cubs | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #907 Pittsburgh Pirates (-118) over Chicago Cubs (7:15pm EST)Â |
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06-21-14 | Detroit Tigers v. Cleveland Indians -118 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -118 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #926 Cleveland Indians over Detroit Tigers (7:15pm EST) It's hard to believe that Justin Verlander has gone from the very best pitcher in the sport a couple of years ago, to a guy that is probably one of the five worst pitchers going right now. So much has changed in a short time that many are scratching their heads trying to figure it out. It's probably a combination of factors including diminished velocity, a big contract in his back pocket, lingering injury issues and Kate Upton. But whatever it is, Verlander isn't right and he's one of the top guys to bet against at the moment. The oddsmakers and betting markets are still giving Verlander some respect and it's hard to comprehend. He comes into today's start with a 4.98 ERA and 1.56 WHIP and he's getting worse by the start. Over his last three outings, the former Cy Young and MVP is 0-3 with a 9.16 ERA and 2.04 WHIP. His K/BB ratio in those outings is just 12-10 and many hitters have commented that his stuff is very easy to pick up now. The Indians will get their chance to take some shots at Verlander today and they should do well given all of their left-handed bats. The Indians have hit right-handers about as well as anyone this season and they've seen plenty of Verlander over the years. Trevor Bauer will deal with the Tigers hitters and I like what I've seen from the youngster in 2014. He's finally blossoming into the kind of pitcher everyone had hoped for when he was in Arizona. He's striking out 9.3 batters per nine innings and has a respectable 4.20 ERA. His stuff is electric and he's one of the more cerebral pitchers in the game. Bauer is here to stay in the Indians rotation and I expect a big year from him. The Tigers have dropped 20 of 31 games and are still trying to stop this spiral. With the big edge on the mound, I like the Indians to take this one at home. |
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06-21-14 | Milwaukee Brewers -130 v. Colorado Rockies | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 26 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #905 Milwaukee Brewers (-130) over Colorado Rockies (4:10pm EST) The Colorado Rockies made a questionable move yesterday by calling up Christian Friedrich to start today's game against the Brewers. Juan Nicasio was optioned to the minor leagues in his place, which is not the surprising part. The shocker was bringing up Friedrich, who owned a 1-8 record and 7.89 ERA in Triple-A. The 26-year old left-hander spent half a season in the Colorado rotation in 2012, but it was pretty apparent he wasn't quite ready as he registered a 6.17 ERA in 16 starts. The Rockies will give him another chance today and that's probably not a move they would have made if they thought they were contenders this season. Things have fallen apart for the Rockies as players have gone down with injury one-by-one. Three key guys from their everyday lineup are now missing and it's hurting the team offensively and defensively in a big way. I expect things to get worse before they get better, as this team is going to need to be healthy to compete. Wily Peralta goes for the Brewers and I think he's well-suited for Coors Field. He keeps the ball down and doesn't put give away too many free passes. He's enjoying the best season of his young career with a 7-5 record and 2.98 ERA. He should be able to keep the momentum going against a weakened Colorado lineup. Take Milwaukee here. |
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06-21-14 | Boston Red Sox +134 v. Oakland A's | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 24 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #921 Boston Red Sox (+130) over Oakland A's (4:05pm EST) We played the Oakland A's in this same matchup yesterday and were able to cash a ticket. Today we'll flip the table and go with the Boston Red Sox. The main reason - Rubby De La Rosa. If you haven't heard this name yet, get familiar with it. The 25-year old right-hander has taken the AL by storm after being called up less than a month ago. In his four starts, De La Rosa has a 2.84 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. He's striking out 8.2 batters per nine innings and only walking 2.5, in addition to inducing 55% groundballs. That's a recipe for success and there's no reason to believe he can't keep it up. The BoSox were high on De La Rosa and so far their evaluation is spot on. The A's send Jesse Chavez to the hill and he's one of my biggest regression candidates right now. He had a fantastic April but hasn't been nearly as sharp recently. I think the Red Sox can give De La Rosa some support early and hold on for the victory. |
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06-20-14 | Boston Red Sox v. Oakland A's -127 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #976 Oakland A's over Boston Red Sox (10:05pm EST)Â |
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06-20-14 | Baltimore Orioles v. New York Yankees -129 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
5-unit Play Take #966 New York Yankees over Baltimore Orioles (7:05pm EST) The Baltimore Orioles had money to spend at the end of the offseason and they made one great decision and on terrible one. The good signing was Nelson Cruz, who is absolutely tearing the cover off the ball in a Baltimore uniform with a league-leading 22 home runs. The bad signing is today's starting pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez. For some reason the O's thought they could fix the inconsistent ways of the wild right-hander. So far it hasn't happened as Jimenez comes in 2-8 with a 4.86 ERA and is in a major funk recently. Over his last three starts, he's 0-2 with a 5.79 ERA and a miserable 9-14 K/BB ratio. Today he heads to the Bronx to take on a Yankees team that is playing really well. The Yanks have won seven of nine and are currently in a wild card position in the AL (tied with the Angels). Hiroki Kuroda gets the nod today and he's been surprisingly good this season. At the age of 39 I expected some major regression, but Kuroda is still keeping his team in the game and his peripheral numbers are comparable with prior years. Baltimore has not been swinging the bats well of late, so Kuroda should be able to find a nice groove. He rarely walks anyone and the Orioles don't like taking free passes, so they'll have to earn their runs. This line feels too low with the struggles of Jimenez, so we'll take the Yankees as our Game. |
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06-19-14 | Los Angeles Angels -128 v. Cleveland Indians | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -128 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #971 Los Angeles Angels over Cleveland Indians (12:05pm EST) This one was delayed one day because of rain, but that doesn't change the handicap. The Angels and Indians will play the rubber game of what is now a three-game set in Cleveland. C.J. Wilson toes the rubber for the Halos and he's about as consistent as it comes when you are talking about starting pitchers. The veteran right-hander enters today's contest 7-6 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 14 starts. Since becoming a starter, Wilson has posted ERAs of 3.35, 2.94, 3.83, 3.39 and the 3.50 he has so far in 2014. You know exactly what you're going to get from him and that makes it easier to back him in this game. The Indians do not hit left-handed pitching particularly well. In fact, they are hitting just .241 as a team against southpaws on the season. Justin Masterson goes for the Tribe and he's been about the opposite of consistent throughout his career. This season has been no exception as he comes in with a 5.05 ERA despite mixing in some brilliant performances. This is on the heels of a season in which he posted a 3.45 ERA. The Angels have one of the top offenses in baseball and it's even better now that it's healthy. Josh Hamilton missed extensive time, but he's back in the lineup and is raking. It's hard to find any areas where the Angels don't have the advantage tonight. As a result, we're on the Angels in this spot. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-18-14 | Kansas City Royals v. Detroit Tigers -135 | 2-1 | Loss | -135 | 1 h 12 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #964 Detroit Tigers (-135) over Kansas City Royals (1:05pm EST) The Detroit Tigers have been on a major slide and the Kansas City Royals have been surging. However, this is a great situation where the line has been overly adjusted and we see some value. The Tigers are 9-19 over their last 28 games and their pitching staff has been Triple-A quality recently. But this is still of the most talented teams in the major leagues and there's no question they will find a way to right the ship. The Royals come in on a nine-game winning streak and have taken over first place in the AL Central. They've been tearing the cover off of the ball, including 11 runs in back-to-back games to start this series. Most would stay away from the Detroit side in a game like this, because it's hard to bet them given these trends. However, the best bets are often times the ones that are the hardest to make. Very few will be on the Tigers and that gives us a little bit of line value in and of itself. The Tigers are the better team overall, have the better starting pitcher and deserve to be a bigger favorite. We're just getting a huge discount because of how these teams are playing at the moment. Take Detroit. |
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06-17-14 | Houston Astros +128 v. Washington Nationals | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
10-unit Play Take #927 Houston Astros over Washington Nationals (7:05pm EST) The Houston Astros head to the nation's capital on Tuesday to begin a three-game set with the Nationals. The Astros have been one of the best teams in baseball since mid-May and there's no reason to expect that to change. Houston is 21-13 over its last 34 games, fueled by rookie George Springer and a starting rotation that is exceeding all projections. One of those guys is today's starter Dallas Keuchel, who is making an early case for the AL Cy Young award in 2014. The left-hander is 8-3 with a 2.38 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 13 starts. He has a 75-18 K/BB ratio and seems to be getting better with every start that he makes. He'll get a Nats offense that hasn't lived up to expectations so far in 2014, and a lot of that has to do with injuries. They're starting to get healthy, but Washington is still without Bryce Harper and Wilson Ramos. Those are two important pieces, both offensively and defensively. Tanner Roark gets the nod for the Nats. Roark has been a nice addition to the rotation, as he comes in 5-4 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. However, he has been somewhat fortunate to face quite a few weak offenses in his 13 starts. He also has been lucky with a low BABIP and has avoided home runs fairly well. As a result, we should see some regression for Roark. The Houston offense is leaps and bounds better than it was earlier this season. They brought up Springer, who looks like an instant All-Star, and also Jonathan Singelton, who provides lots of power. The rest of the young hitters are also improving, so this offense goes from one of the worst least season to the upper-half of the AL. Keuchel isn't going to be getting underdog prices for long, so we'll take advantage here. Play the Astros. |
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06-16-14 | New York Mets v. St. Louis Cardinals -150 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
Indian Cowboy is releasing his 5-Unit Baseball Selection this evening @ 7:10pm est between Tampa Bay vs. Baltimore. Considering IC is on a fantastic 10-2 Baseball run, including a sharp play on St. Louis -110 over Washington (5-2) yesterday and is 47-28 (62%) for +3468, this is a great chance to pick up another solid winner today. IC is on a 33-12 Baseball Run and jump on board today as he nears +4000 on the Season on the Diamond! |
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06-15-14 | San Diego Padres -118 v. New York Mets | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -118 | 2 h 52 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #903 San Diego Padres over New York Mets (1:10pm EST) The San Diego Padres and New York Mets aren't going anywhere in 2014 and this game probably won't be particularly exciting for the casual fan. But that doesn't mean we can't make some money on what looks like a great opportunity. Ian Kennedy has been one of the top pitchers in the National League this season, but he hasn't got the kind of attention he has deserved. He comes in at 5-7 with a 3.63 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 13 starts this season. He's striking out a career-best 9.5 batters per nine innings while walking a career-low 2.1 at the same time. Kennedy has even increased his groundball rate and lowered his home run rate in 2014. Skeptics may point to the fact that half of his starts are in Petco Park, which is one of the top pitcher's parks in baseball. But Kennedy has actually been better on the road than he has at home. Today he'll see a weak-hitting Mets team that was shut out yesterday by rookie Jesse Hahn. That made nine losses in their last 11 games, and their hitting has been the culprit during the collapse. The Mets averaged just 3.0 runs per game during that span despite going up against mediocre pitching. Kennedy certainly will be one of the toughest arms they've faced in some time, so I don't expect many runs to cross the plate for New York. That puts the pressure on Mets starter Daisuke Matsuzaka. The veteran right-hander was forced into the rotation due to other injuries and he hasn't fit in very well so far. His overall ERA is 2.95, but that is deceiving for two reasons. First off, most of his innings have been out of the bullpen pitching one inning at a time. Starting is much more difficult when hitters get to see you multiple times. In addition, Matsuzaka has been extremely fortunate as he is allowing a BABIP of just .204. He's walking 6.4 batters per nine innings, which is amongst the highest in the majors. San Diego is a poor hitting team, but any major league team can score runs when they're given free passes. Daisuke will likely only go five or six innings today, and that opens the game up for the Padres as the Mets bullpen has struggled for most of the season. I expect San Diego to get an early lead on the Mets and Kennedy should be able to hold it the way he's been throwing. When the game gets into the hands of the respective bullpens, I like San Diego there as well. All signs point to the Padres here and that's why it's our 10-unit National League Game of the Year. |
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06-14-14 | Texas Rangers v. Seattle Mariners -114 | 4-3 | Loss | -114 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #978 Seattle Mariners (-115) over Texas Rangers (10:10pm EST) He's not going to be mentioned in any Manager of the Year discussions for this season, but Ron Washington certainly deserves a ton of credit for keeping his Texas Rangers team afloat. No team has been ravished by injuries like Texas has this season. They are missing half of their everyday lineup and their pitching staff has been decimated even worse. Despite the mash unit, the Rangers are a respectable 33-34 in the AL West - the toughest division in all of baseball. That's quite a managing job, but don't expect it to last all season long. The bottom is going to fall out eventually, and there are plenty of warning signs that it's going to happen sooner than later. A quick glance at the lineup card is enough to see that the Rangers are going to go through their fair share of hitting slumps. They've been very inconsistent at the plate recently and it will probably continue to get worse. They'll go up against a starting pitcher that has had his problems with consistency this season as well - Erasmo Ramirez. The young right-hander is just 1-4 with a 5.97 ERA and 1.67 ERA in eight starts with the Mariners in 2014. His peripherals are a little bit better than that, but Ramirez is still learning and he just isn't a good pitcher right now. He isn't a guy that I'd normally be looking to back with my money. However, he has that weak Rangers offense to make things easier and he should get plenty of run support today as well. That's because Texas is sending journeyman Joe Saunders to the hill for this one. The 32-year old lefty appears as if he's holding things together with his 3.60 ERA in four starts, but don't be fooled. His underlying statistics are atrocious, including a meager 12-10 K/BB ratio. Saunders is going to get punished this season and the Mariners should have no problem putting some runs up against him today. I like Seattle here. |
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06-14-14 | Pittsburgh Pirates -127 v. Miami Marlins | Top | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 38 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #955 Pittsburgh Pirates over Miami Marlins (4:10pm EST) We've been riding the Pittsburgh Pirates lately and we'll do it again here on Saturday. As was pointed out a couple of times already, this is an improved version of the Pittsburgh team from a few weeks back. Gregory Polanco is one of the biggest reasons why, as he was called up from Triple-A earlier this week. All he did yesterday was go 5-for-7 at the plate, including the game-winning home run in the 13th inning. He's a game-changer and makes this Pittsburgh team a contender. I like the pitching matchup here today as Charlie Morton goes up against Randy Wolf. That's a huge mismatch in Pittsburgh's favor as Morton is throwing the ball very well and Wolf is a bomb waiting to implode. We could break it down further, but it's really that simple. The Pirates are 10-5 in their last 15 games and we'll continue to let them cash tickets for us. They have the better overall team and a big edge on the mound, so this price is very reasonable. Take the Pirates as our 5-unit Game of the Week. |
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06-13-14 | New York Yankees v. Oakland A's -184 | 7-0 | Loss | -184 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
4-Unit Play. Take #926 Oakland over New York (AL) (10:05 p.m. Friday, June 13) The Yankees come into tonight's contest having just swept the Mariners but they haven't had much success in Oakland recently. New York has dropped their last 7 contests in Oakland while plating just 18 runs over that span and it will be tough tonight with Sonny Gray on the mound for the A's. The Yankees have never faced Gray and he is limiting opponents to a .222 average on the season. The Athletics took 2 of 3 in New York a week and a half ago with Yoenis Cespedes and Brandon Moss providing the offensive punch hitting two home runs apiece. David Phelps will have the ball for New York and he is 0-3 with a 5.28 ERA in five road starts with the Yankees losing all 5 of those starts. Oakland had a day off yesterday to rest up after beating the Angels to finish up 5-4 on their 9 game road trip. The A's are 4-0 in their last 4 games following an off day and I think they win by at least two runs tonight. |
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06-12-14 | Chicago Cubs v. Pittsburgh Pirates -117 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #960 Pittsburgh Pirates over Chicago Cubs (7:05pm EST) The Pittsburgh Pirates have a new look and I think it could pay dividends in the coming weeks. First off, Russell Martin and Jason Grilli are back in the fold after missing several weeks with injuries. Those were two of the most important pieces to the puzzle for the Pirates last year and they are leaders on this squad. Pittsburgh also finally brought up Gregory Polanco a few days ago and he's one of the top prospects in the game. He should make an impact with his bat and in the field based on all of the scouting reports. You're also starting to see the signs of a run as Pittsburgh is 8-5 in their last 13 games. If they can keep winning at that rate, they'll be back in the playoff race in a matter of weeks. Today they get the lovable losers - the Chicago Cubs. It's been another disappointing season on the north side of Chicago in 2014. The Cubs have the worst record in the NL and the minor league ball club seems to be all anyone cares about in the organization. That bodes well for bettors looking to make some money going against them. The Cubs clearly have the edge on the mound today, but that's the only area where they are better. Starting pitching is generally overrated in the markets, and this is a perfect example. Jeff Samardzija has a sparkling 2.54 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, but he only has two wins to show for it. The offense and bullpen have let him down in a big way this season and there's no reason to expect it to change. The line on this game is a bit lower than expected, so we'll take the Pirates here. |
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06-11-14 | New York Yankees -170 v. Seattle Mariners | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
2-unit Play Take #923 New York Yankees over Seattle Mariners (10:05pm EST) It's not smart to make a habit of betting big road favorites, but tonight presents a rare exception. We have one of the biggest mismatches on the mound of the entire season with Masahiro Tanaka going for the Yankees and Chris Young for the Mariners. Tanaka has simply been one of the best in baseball since breaking onto the scene. He's 9-1 with a 2.02 ERA and 0.96 WHIP to go along with an insane 92-13 K/BB ratio. If the Cy Young was being handed out today, he'd be holding it over his head. Chris Young looks to have solid numbers on the surface, but it's just a mirage. He's 5-3 with a 3.42 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, but it's all downhill from there once we start digging any further. He's only striking out 4.3 batters per nine innings, while walking nearly 4.0 at the same time. His groundball rate is the worst in the league at 26%, leaving him susceptible to more home runs. And finally, he's getting extremely lucky on balls in play with a .205 BABIP. Add it all up and Young should probably have an ERA somewhere in the 5's - two full runs higher. The ERA will eventually rise, it's just a matter of when. As for the team aspects, I give the Yankees the edge offensively and also in the bullpen. The Mariners play better team defense, which will get tested with Young throwing today. But overall, I don't see many ways that the Mariners can win this game. We're going to lay the heavy wood and ride Tanaka and the Yanks today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-10-14 | Boston Red Sox +102 v. Baltimore Orioles | 1-0 | Win | 102 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #965 Boston Red Sox over Baltimore Orioles (7:05pm EST) Two overrated ballclubs go at it tonight in Baltimore as the Orioles host the Boston Red Sox. I don't have either of these teams rated very highly and neither squad is going to compete for a playoff spot in 2014 the way I see it. But this selection is all about fading Baltimore starter Chris Tillman. The 26-year old right-hander comes into today's game with a horrendous 5.20 ERA and 1.51 WHIP on the season. But it gets worse, as Tillman has seemingly lost his feel on the mound lately. Over his last four outings, he has a 12.56 ERA and 2.51 WHIP in addition to a 12-12 K/BB ratio. It doesn't get any worse than that for a starting pitcher and Tillman has admitted than he's having severe problems with his delivery. It's surprising that the O's are sending him out there again, but we'll take advantage of their oversight. The Red Sox lineup hasn't produced a ton this season, but they have capable enough hitters to take advantage of a struggling hurler. We'll take Boston as a small underdog tonight. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-10-14 | San Diego Padres +101 v. Philadelphia Phillies | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 60 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #953 San Diego Padres over Philadelphia Phillies (7:05pm EST) You can't run an organization much worse than the Philadelphia Phillies have over the last couple of years, and they are paying for it now. General Manager Ruben Amaro Jr. has continued to fool himself into thinking he has a contender, while mortgaging part of the future in the process. The team is 25-36 entering tonight's game, tied for the worst record in the National League. This team knows they are too long in the tooth to compete, and there are probably a handful of guys that are hoping to get traded at the deadline this season. A few of them undoubtedly will get moved, but the team morale isn't going to get any better then. Manager Ryne Sandberg is doing his best to keep this Phillies team motivated, but it's a lost cause. Veteran A.J. Burnett gets the nod today and he's been extremely inconsistent throughout the 2014 campaign. Overall he's 3-5 with a 4.41 ERA and 1.51 WHIP - far below the numbers Philadelphia imagined when they signed him to a one-year $16 million deal in the offseason. He's likely to get moved to a contender, but don't expect many good efforts from Burnett before then. He's not known for having one of the best attitudes, and when times are rough he isn't likely to rise above it. He'll face a struggling Padres offense today, but it's the guy they have on the mound that is one of the keys to this wager. Ian Kennedy is making his bid for Comeback Player of the Year in 2014 as he's been amazing through the first two months. Kennedy has a 3.39 ERA and 1.13 WHIP to go along with a superb 88-20 K/BB ratio. And Kennedy isn't just taking advantage of the pitcher's park in San Diego. He's actually pitching much better on the road than he is in Petco. Kennedy has a 2.61 on the road versus a 3.88 ERA at home. The Padres don't score much but I don't think they'll need a lot with Kennedy going up against a weak Phillies lineup. San Diego should get the victory here. |
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06-09-14 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. Cincinnati Reds -105 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #904 Cincinnati Reds over Los Angeles Dodgers (7:10pm EST) Good spot here for the Cincinnati Reds as they catch the Los Angeles Dodgers at the perfect time. First off, the Dodgers just finished a series in Colorado and will have to now travel across country to Cincinnati for this one. Adjusting from the high altitude to a normal environment usually takes more than 24 hours, so advantage to the Reds there. Los Angeles is also pretty banged up at the moment, with Carl Crawford and Juan Uribe on the disabled list and Yasiel Puig and Dee Gordon big question marks for tonight. The Reds go with crafty southpaw Tony Cingrani in tonight's game. He hasn't been great so far in 2014, but the Dodgers have had all kinds of trouble with left-handers all season long so I like his chances. The Dodgers are hitting just .208 against lefties - worst in the NL. Dan Haren toes the rubber for Los Angeles and he's struggled a bit after a red hot start to the 2014 season. Haren has given up at least three earned runs in six of his last seven starts and he's striking out fewer batters in the process. He has just 18 strikeouts to his name over his last six starts, which spans 37 innings of work. The Reds are still without their best player Joey Votto, but they still have some weapons in the lineup and have managed to stay afloat at 29-32. We'll take Cincinnati here at home at a nice price. |
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06-08-14 | Houston Astros -106 v. Minnesota Twins | Top | 14-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #971 Houston Astros over Minnesota Twins (2:10pm EST) We're leaning on the surging Astros once again today as they take on the Twins. Houston is 16-10 over their last 26 games after an 11-26 start to the season. They're clearly not quite as good as their recent record indicates, but they're certainly not as bad as the way they opened the 2014 campaign. The real answer is somewhere in the middle and I really think this is a team that could play close to .500 baseball for the remainder of the season. The lineup keeps improving as they are bringing quality talent and the young guys are learning more and more each day. The rotation is better than originally anticipated and one of the reasons is today's starter Collin McHugh. The young right-hander is 4-3 with a 2.52 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in eight starts in 2014. This is after posting an enormous 10.04 ERA in limited work last season and bouncing around three different organizations in a two-year span. The betting markets haven't quite caught up to him and the Astros yet. They are small favorites here, but this line should be 10-15 cents higher based on my ratings. The Astros have the better overall team and are sending out the better starter on the mound. So we'll take Houston once again. |
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06-08-14 | St. Louis Cardinals +132 v. Toronto Blue Jays | 5-0 | Win | 132 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #979 St. Louis Cardinals over Toronto Blue Jays (1:05pm EST) You have to respect what the Toronto Blue Jays have been doing for the first couple of the months of the season. But that doesn't mean you have to believe that it's going to continue. The Jays are 38-25 thus far and have been slicing and dicing opposing pitchers. They lead the majors in runs scored and home runs, and they certainly have plenty of talent. But the regression is likely coming as several players in the lineup have been red hot and have to eventually come back down to earth. Guys like Edwin Encarnacion who is second in the big leagues with 19 home runs and Juan Francisco who has 10 homers in just 129 at bats this season. Their pitching has also exceeded expectations and one of the reasons is 23-year old Drew Hutchison. He enters today's game with a 3.50 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 12 starts. He has a heavy fastball and could be a future ace in the near future. But the hype has grown a bit too large for Hutchison and the Jays. They are a decent-sized favorite today against a St. Louis Cardinals team that went to the World Series last year. The Cardinals haven't played as well as they are capable of, but they look to offer some value in this one. Jaime Garcia goes for St. Louis and he's looked pretty good in four starts since returning from the disabled list despite a high 5.47 ERA. He has yet to walk a single batter and has struck out 22 batters in 24 innings of work. His velocity is even better than it was before the injury as well. As a result, we should see some good results from Garcia going forward as the stuff is definitely there. The Cards may not be quite as good as Toronto at the moment, but this line is still a touch too high. We're on St. Louis. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-07-14 | Cleveland Indians +110 v. Texas Rangers | Top | 8-3 | Win | 110 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #917 Cleveland Indians over Texas Rangers (4:05pm EST) They started the season slowly, but the Cleveland Indians are finally playing like they are capable of. The Tribe has won six of seven and more closely resemble the team that surprised everyone and made the playoffs last season. Cleveland doesn't rely on any superstars to carry them, as they have one of the more balanced teams in baseball. It seems like someone different steps up every day to contribute, and they're usually not household names. One guy that has been getting the job done is today's starter Josh Tomlin. The 29-year old right-hander wasn't even supposed to be in the rotation this season, but he was given a shot due to injuries. So far he's been impressive with a 3.06 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in six games. Tomlin relies on his impeccable control to be successful. He holds an extremely low 1.4 walk rate per innings and has induced lots of weak contact as well. He'll face a battered Texas Rangers squad that looks nothing like it did earlier this spring. Injuries have ravaged the Rangers roster and it's a minor miracle that they've hovered around the .500 mark for so long. The bottom will eventually fall out for Texas as they can't stay afloat with the guys they are trotting out day in and day out. Nick Tepesch gets the ball today and he's another guy that wasn't supposed to be in the rotation on day one. He's filled in nicely so far at 2-1 with a 4.43 ERA, but his stuff isn't overwhelming and he'll provide mediocre production at best. The Indians have hit righties extremely well overall, with a .264 average on the season (versus just .236 against lefties). As a result, they should be able to jump on Tepesch and get into a suspect Texas bullpen early on. The wrong team is being favored in this game so we're on the Indians for our Game of the Week. |
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06-06-14 | Washington Nationals v. San Diego Padres -115 | 6-0 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #962 San Diego Padres over Washington Nationals (10:10pm EST) Before the season started, the Washington Nationals were picked as a trendy team to represent the NL in the World Series this year. But two months into the 2014 campaign, it's evident that this team has some big issues and they'll be lucky to compete for a wild card spot now. New manager Matt Williams has tried to toughen up his team using some old school tactics and it hasn't resonated well with some of the players. The Nats have also dealt with some big injuries so far, including Bryce Harper who is still on the disabled list for another few weeks. They're still 30-28 entering tonight's game, but the team chemistry is definitely lacking and there are several guys underperforming on this roster. Today's starter Tanner Roark has had a nice start to the season, but I don't like what I've seen from him lately. In his last three starts he has a troublesome 10-6 K/BB ratio and he lost all three outings at home against less than stellar offenses. The league may be catching up to Roark and it will be up to him to make some adjustments to be successful. Tyson Ross goes for the Pads and he's putting up another solid campaign after turning a corner in 2013. Last season he posted a 3.17 ERA in 35 games and he's turned it up a notch in 2014 with a sparkling 2.85 ERA. He doesn't get a lot of attention pitching in San Diego, but Ross has great stuff and knows how to avoid trouble. Washington has scuffled at the plate for the majority of the season, and I think it's primarily due to the injuries. They're getting healthier now, but are still missing their most valuable player in Harper. I like the Padres to get the win here today. |
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06-06-14 | Houston Astros +105 v. Minnesota Twins | 5-4 | Win | 105 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #975 Houston Astros over Minnesota Twins (8:10pm EST) The Houston Astros continued their winning ways last night to make it 15-9 in their last 24 games. We've been backing them quite a bit during their run as they are much better than the betting markets are giving them credit for. Today's starter Dallas Keuchel is one of the biggest reasons why as he's putting up Cy Young type numbers so far. The young southpaw is 6-3 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in addition to a 64-15 K/BB ratio. He leads the league in groundball rate at 65% and looks like a cagey veteran on the hill at age 26. He'll face a weak Minnesota Twins lineup tonight, and they have struggled against lefties this season. The Twins are playing a bit over their heads at 28-30 on the season, and I fully expect this team to finish in the basement of the AL Central when it's all said and done. I rate the Astros as the better ballclub overall and they also have the better starting pitcher tonight. We'll gladly play Houston as an underdog once again. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-05-14 | Los Angeles Angels v. Houston Astros +121 | 5-8 | Win | 121 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #914 Houston Astros over Los Angeles Angels (7:10pm EST) The Houston Astros are slowly becoming a respectable baseball team. They're 14-9 over their last 23 games and they're starting to bring up top-notch talent everyone has been clamoring for. George Springer has made a huge impact so far and big things are expected of the recently promoted Jon Singleton. But the biggest surprise so far this season has been the Astros starting pitching. Several guys are making big strides and the rotation could end up being the backbone of this team. One of those pitchers is today's starter Brad Peacock. He's still a little rough around the edges, but Peacock has gotten better with each start and has looked downright dominant lately. Over his last three outings, the right-hander has a 3.38 ERA and 1.34 WHIP to go along with a nice 24-6 K/BB ratio. Those aren't spectacular numbers, but when you look at them within the context of his career 4.67 ERA then you can see the progress. He'll face a tough Angel's lineup today. However, they'll be without their best hitter Mike Trout who is nursing a back injury. I still don't think the Astros are getting quite enough respect from linesmakers, so we'll look their way in this one. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-05-14 | New York Mets +106 v. Chicago Cubs | 4-7 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #905 New York Mets over Chicago Cubs (7:05pm EST) Today's game between the Mets and Cubs probably won't be a pretty one, but that doesn't mean there isn't some money to be made here. If you've watched Travis Wood on the mound lately, you can't help but notice that he doesn't look like himself. He's missing that swagger he usually and his results haven't been good. Over his last five starts, Wood has a 7.96 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. His control has been erratic as he only has a 21-14 K/BB ratio during that stretch. Wood has All-Star kind of stuff, so he eventually should be able to work through this. But in the meantime, we can take advantage of this slide. The Mets hit lefties pretty and they're 7th in the NL in runs scored overall, ahead of teams like the Cardinals and Nationals. If Wood gets bounced early again, the Cubs bullpen is one of the worst in the league so there could be some more feasting. Jacob DeGrom goes for the Mets and he's looked good since being called up. He hasn't registered a win yet, but the rookie holds a 2.42 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in four starts. The Cubs offense has been inept all season and I don't like their chances against a talented youngster they have never seen before. The Mets are the right side today. |
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06-04-14 | Boston Red Sox v. Cleveland Indians -140 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #966 Cleveland Indians over Boston Red Sox (7:05pm EST) Today's game is all about Corey Kluber, who is one of the hottest pitchers in baseball at the moment. The Indians right-hander is 4-0 with a 2.09 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in his last six starts. But even more impressively, he has a 60-8 K/BB ratio and has dominated AL hitters. He'll face a lackluster Red Sox lineup that is just 11th in the AL in runs scored this season. I think the Red Sox will eventually find a groove offensively, but right now they are fade material. Youngster Brandon Workman goes for Boston. He's an unproven commodity at the moment, but I wasn't impressed with his effort in the minors. He seems like he needs a little more seasoning, so I expect the Indians to touch him up pretty good in this one. The Tribe hit righties very well, so that makes things even tougher on Workman. We're paying a decent price on Cleveland here, but there's still plenty of value. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-03-14 | Kansas City Royals v. St. Louis Cardinals -123 | 8-7 | Loss | -123 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #926 St. Louis Cardinals over Kansas City Royals (7:15pm EST) Interleague rivals do battle today in St. Louis as the Cardinals host the Royals. The line on this game is short because of the perceived edge for the Royals on the mound, but I like the Cardinals starter here today. Jaime Garcia has looked sharped since coming back from injury. He has yet to walk a single batter in 19.2 innings of work while striking out 19 batters. His ERA is just 4.12, but that's mostly due to an abnormally high home run rate that will come down. Kansas City ace James Shields takes the ball on the other side. He's a strong workhorse, but he's been a bit inconsistent since joining the Royals. The Cardinals lineup has hit righties well, so I think they can breakthrough today. St. Louis also has the edge offensively and in the bullpen. This is a very low price for the Cardinals at home, so we'll take the bait. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-03-14 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Detroit Tigers -135 | 5-3 | Loss | -135 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #914 Detroit Tigers over Toronto Blue Jays (7:05pm EST) The Toronto Blue Jays have gotten a lot of attention this season and for good reason. They lead the AL East with a 34-24 record and they look like they're here to stay. But they're not near the level of the Tigers yet, so this line seems a bit short given the pitching matchup. Drew Hutchison has had a solid rookie season, but he has some issues at the moment. His start was pushed back after a rough outing against the Rays in which he gave up five runs in five innings. He didn't strike out a single batter in that game while walking four and his velocity was noticeably down. That's a warning sign, so it'll be interesting to see what kind of stuff he has against a potent Tigers lineup. Anibal Sanchez goes for Detroit, and he's putting together another fine season. He led the AL with a 2.57 ERA last season and he's bested that so far in 2014 with a 2.49 mark. He doesn't get as much attention as Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, so we get a break on the line here. The Tigers have the better offense, better starter and are playing at home. Given that, the line on this game is too low so we're on Detroit. |
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06-03-14 | Boston Red Sox v. Cleveland Indians +100 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #916 Cleveland Indians over Boston Red Sox (7:05pm EST) Good spot here for the Cleveland Indians as they go up against a struggling veteran that is still getting too much respect in the betting markets. Jake Peavy has had a great 13-year career, but the decline has been sharp for the last few seasons. He's posted an ERA better than 4.17 just once over the last five seasons and he has continued to slide in 2014. Peavy is just 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 11 starts. His velocity is still pretty good, but his control has started to tail off big time. He's walking 3.8 batters per nine innings and the Indians lineup should be able to take advantage. Cleveland has one of the more patient approaches in the league and they also have hit right-handers extremely well. Peavy still knows how to pitch, but he's not the same reliable guy he was with the Padres. Rookie T.J. House will be responsible for keeping the Red Sox hitters at bay today. That won't be as big of a task as it seems since Boston is just 9th in the AL in runs scored this season and is still searching for itself offensively. It's gone on a little too long to be blamed on the World Series hangover, so I think it's safe to say that this Boston team has some holes. Losing Jacoby Ellsbury hurt more than they imagined and they're not getting the same production from most of their veterans. The Indians are 18-11 this season, which is the best home record in the AL. Despite the experience gap, I think the Tribe has the better starting pitcher. House has looked good in limited action and I trust him to get the job done today. |
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06-02-14 | New York Mets -106 v. Philadelphia Phillies | 11-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
2-unit Play Take #963 New York Mets over Philadelphia Phillies (7:05pm EST)Â Today's game between the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies probably won't be pretty. Neither of these teams has much punch in their lineup and neither starting pitcher has sparkled this season. Bartolo Colon has excellent control but his pitches in the zone have been hit hard this season after switching to the National League. He has a 4.73 ERA, but his peripheral statistics point to an ERA that should be at least a run lower. Roberto Hernandez checks in at 2-2 with a 3.76 ERA, but he' s been prone to the long ball and has had problems making it deep into games. This Phillies team seems to be teetering on the brink of disaster right now. They are in last place in the NL East and most of the veterans are more worried about where they will be traded at the deadline. GM Ruben Amaro Jr. needs to start rebuilding, so it's just a matter of time. The Mets are still a year or two away from being competitive, but they're young and hungry and are just a better overall team right now. Take the Mets here today. |
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06-01-14 | Colorado Rockies v. Cleveland Indians -122 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 1 h 1 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #926 Cleveland Indians over Colorado Rockies (1:05pm EST) The Cleveland Indians look for the sweep this afternoon versus the Rockies and I think they have an excellent chance to do it. Colorado has been awful on the road this season at just 12-20, which is the second worst for a team above the .500 mark overall. This isn't anything new for the Rockies, who have taken advantage of a big home field edge in Coors for years. Jhoulys Chacin gets the ball for Colorado and he's really been struggling in 2014. Chacin enters today 0-4 with a 5.20 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in five starts - three of which were away from Coors. He also hasn't faced very tough competition in those starts, going up against the Phillies, Giants, Royals, Reds and Mets. Chacin has lost a bit of velocity after returning from injury, so until he gets that back he will continue to labor on the mound. The Indians have hit extremely well against righties this season, so I expect a big day at the plate for several of their hitters. Josh Tomlin goes for the Tribe and he's exceeded expectations so far. He's 3-2 with a 3.04 ERA and 0.98 WHIP and has improved his stuff overall. His K/BB ratio is the best of his career and he looks like he can maintain a spot in the Cleveland rotation for the remainder of the season. The Indians are the better team and have the better pitcher going today. Add in the Rockies' struggles away from Coors, and this is a slam dunk play on Cleveland. |
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