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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-22-12 | Arizona Diamondbacks -109 v. Colorado Rockies | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #913 Arizona Diamondbacks over Colorado Rockies (8:10pm EST) The Arizona Diamondbacks take on the Colorado Rockies tonight in a game where the line is a real head-scratcher. The Diamondbacks have been on the brink of the playoff race for most of the season at 75-75. They're not going to make it, but they've been respectable and have fought hard to stay competitive. The Rockies, meanwhile, check in at 58-92 and have been one of the worst teams in baseball in 2012. Their season ended some time back in May and they're looking ahead to the future. Injuries have ravaged the team as they're without Troy Tulowitzki, Todd Helton, Michael Cuddyer and Ramon Hernandez. Carlos Gonzalez is also a big question mark for tonight as he is suffering with hamstring issues. Despite these injuries and the season that Colorado has had, the line on this game is close to even.
The starting pitchers in today's matchup are Patrick Corbin for the D-backs and Jhoulys Chacin for the Rockies - another clear advantage for Arizona. Corbin is a rookie whose put together a solid season at 6-7 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 19 games. More importantly, he's showing improvement in each start and growing confidence. Chacin missed a significant chunk of the season with various injuries, but when he's been on the mound it hasn't been pretty. The right-hander is 2-5 with a 4.58 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. He's also walking nearly four batters per nine innings while only striking out six - a ratio that just won't cut it. The Rockies are probably going to need to score a few extra runs today and that might be a tall order as they're only 15-37 in their last 52 games versus left-handed pitching. Colorado has also dropped 17 of their last 22 overall and they can't wait for the off-season to begin after a miserable season. Plenty of value here today with the Diamondbacks as I feel like this line is just a bad mistake. Arizona beat Colorado 15-5 yesterday and this one could get just as ugly. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-21-12 | San Diego Padres +135 v. San Francisco Giants | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
5-unit Play Take #965 San Diego Padres over San Francisco Giants (10:15pm EST) The San Diego Padres have been a tough out in the second half of the season. The Friars are 38-25 since the All-Star break and if the season was a bit longer, they'd probably be able to get back into the playoff hunt the way they've been playing. This is a good baseball team and nobody is taking much notice. That's great news for smart bettors, as the Pads continue to be undervalued in the marketplace. Today they are a sizable dog, a spot they have thrived in lately. They are 21-7 over their last 28 games where they were an underdog of +110 to +150.
Rookie right-hander Casey Kelly pitches for San Diego tonight. He's made four starts and has flashed some pretty good stuff. He is 2-1 with a high 5.85 ERA, but his peripheral numbers are very solid. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is 7.7-1.8 and he has an excellent groundball rate at 56%. He dominated at the minor league level this season as well, and the Padres are very high on Kelly. This will be the first time that the Giants have seen him, so he should have the edge the first couple of times through the order. The slumping Ryan Vogelsong will go for the Giants today. Over his last seven starts, the right-hander is 2-4 with a 10.32 ERA and 1.99 WHIP. Those numbers are about as bad as it gets for a starting pitcher, so there is clearly something wrong with Vogelsong. My guess is that he's pitching through an injury, but it could be a multitude of things including some issues with his mechanics. Either way, he's a complete mess at the moment and the Padres lineup is plenty good enough to take advantage. San Diego is averaging 5.8 runs per game in their last 10 games and most of that damage has taken place in pitcher-friendly parks. The line on this game doesn't make much sense. The Padres are a much better team at the moment and they have the starting pitcher that is in much better current form. San Diego is a solid play tonight and has been tabbed as our Game of the Day. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-21-12 | Los Angeles Dodgers +121 v. Cincinnati Reds | 3-1 | Win | 121 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #959 Los Angeles Dodgers over Cincinnati Reds (7:10pm EST) The Los Angeles Dodgers are desperate for victories as they trail the Cardinals by 2.5 games for the second wild card spot in the National League. Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Reds just became the first team to clinch a playoff berth yesterday. The Reds rested three of their best players in yesterday's game and seem content on keeping everybody fresh rather than going hard at the top seed in the National League. As a result, I think we might see the Dodgers a bit more focused in this one than the Reds.
The Dodgers go with starter Joe Blanton in tonight's contest. He's had a bit of a tough time in his new uniform, but he generally keeps his team in the game and has been throwing the ball better of late. Over his last five outings, his strikeout-to-walk ratio is 27-8 and he's keeping the ball on the ground more often. As long as he continues to do that, the results will come. The Reds send Bronson Arroyo to the hill tonight. The right-hander has had a decent season for Cincinnati at 12-8 with a 3.74 ERA. However, he might be wearing a down a bit given his age (35) and the amount of innings he's thrown so far (183). He didn't look very sharp in his last outing and will be facing a tough Dodgers lineup today that has fared pretty well against him. Los Angeles has won 30 of last 44 meetings and I think we get their best effort in a must-win type of game. Take the Dodgers in the underdog role here. |
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09-20-12 | San Diego Padres +106 v. Arizona Diamondbacks | Top | 6-5 | Win | 106 | 5 h 39 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #905 San Diego Padres over Arizona Diamondbacks (3:40pm EST) Not many people know it, but the San Diego Padres are one of the best teams in the league in the second half of the season. Since the All-Star break, the Pads are a cool 37-25 and have climbed back to respectability. They suffered a lot of injuries in the early part of the season and were getting some younger players up to speed. Now they have an above average squad and the betting markets are still pegging this as a bad team. Left-hander Clayton Richard gets the ball this afternoon for San Diego. He isn't going to wow anyone with his stuff, but he generally keeps his team in the ball game and pitches deep into the game. That's all they should need today going up against Tyler Skaggs of the Diamondbacks. Skaggs is a rookie who was given a shot in the rotation a few weeks ago. In his five starts, all he has proved is that he's not quite ready for the big leagues yet and needs more grooming at the lower levels. He carries a 5.55 ERA and hasn't faced any great offenses so far in his outings. The long ball has been a problem for Skaggs as he's given one up in each of his starts. His control is also spotty and that's expected from a 21-year old rookie. The Padres are playing much better baseball right now and I think they'll get to Skaggs early and often today. Take San Diego here.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-19-12 | Atlanta Braves -135 v. Miami Marlins | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #955 Atlanta Braves over Miami Marlins (7:10pm EST) There are very few things that are certain life, but a few that come to mind are death, taxes and Kris Medlen. The 26-year old right-hander is 7-0 with an insane 0.86 ERA and 0.85 WHIP since entering the starting rotation six weeks ago. Nobody in the National League is pitching better than Medlen right now. During his dominant stretch, his strikeout-to-walk ratio is an amazing 66-8. Even more eye-popping, the Braves are 23-3 in Medlen's last 26 starts dating back to last season (16-1 when he's a favorite). The Marlins throw a good pitcher out there in Josh Johnson, but he can't touch Medlen right now. Any time you can get a pitcher as hot as Medlen at a reasonable price of -135, I'm going to take a shot at him. Throw in the fact that the Braves are fighting for playoff positioning while the Marlins are out of contention, and Atlanta looks even better.
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09-19-12 | Minnesota Twins v. Cleveland Indians -131 | 6-4 | Loss | -131 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #968 Cleveland Indians over Minnesota Twins (7:05pm EST) Not much at stake in tonight's tilt between the Cleveland Indians and Minnesota Twins. These teams are basically battling to not be in the cellar of the American League Central. As of right now, they are dead-locked at 61-87 although I doubt either team is aware of it. The Indians go with starting pitcher Zach McAllister in this one and I like what he's done in his rookie campaign. He checks in at 5-7 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.37 WHIP, which are respectable numbers considering he plays with a bad defense behind him and are a last place team. The young right-hander throws hard but has a much better command of the strike zone that most 24-year olds. His mound opponent is another rookie Liam Hendriks. The season hasn't gone so well for him as comes in at 0-7 with a 6.14 ERA and 1.70 WHIP. Hendriks was sent back down to the minor leagues earlier on in the year and it doesn't seem like it did too much good. He's not ready for the big leagues quite yet, and the Twins are just trying to give him valuable experience against major league hitters. The Indians are at home for this one and I like their chances to get a win with the much better rookie throwing today. Take Cleveland here.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-18-12 | Oakland A's v. Detroit Tigers -144 | Top | 2-12 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #922 Detroit Tigers over Oakland A's (7:05pm EST) Another big series starts tonight when the Detroit Tigers host the Oakland A's in Comerica. While both teams are in the playoff race, this series is much bigger for the Tigers as they're currently on the outside looking in while the A's are holding the top wild card spot. And Detroit certainly has the right guy on the mound tonight to make up some ground. Max Scherzer is the hottest pitcher in all baseball at the moment. Over his last seven starts, the right-hander is 6-1 with a 1.29 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. He's shown excellent command of the strike zone and his strikeout-to-walk ratio over that span is a stellar 60-9. There's no question that Scherzer is reaching a new level. The good news is that the betting marketplace hasn't quite figured out yet and the line on this game is relatively cheap.
Oakland counters with starting pitcher A.J. Griffin tonight. He's been throwing the ball really well lately as well, but not in the same stratosphere as Scherzer. The rookie right-hander has made only 11 starts this season, so he still has a lot to prove despite his 6-0 mark with a 1.94 ERA. It's always tough for a rookie pitcher to maintain success, as opposing hitters start to take notice and adjust accordingly. Against a Tigers team that crushes right-handed pitching, I'll expect Griffin to allow a few runs. That should be more than enough for Scherzer to work with. The Tigers have been one of the best home teams in baseball over the last few years, and are a very strong 43-28 in 2012. I like the Tigers in this one. |
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09-15-12 | Washington Nationals +110 v. Atlanta Braves | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 38 m | Show |
The Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves both appear to be safely locked into the playoffs. Barring some kind of miracle, the Nats will be taking home the division crown and the Braves the top wild card spot. But these teams are both still competing hard and want to finish the season on a high note after scuffling a bit of late. Right-hander Edwin Jackson gets the start for Washington today. He's had an up and down year at 9-10 with a 3.85 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. As far as stuff goes, he has the goods. It's just a matter of harnessing it all and pitching a smart game. On the other side is Tommy Hanson of the Braves. Hanson has had a very frustrating season and he may never be the same. Coming up through the Atlanta organization and in his first couple of seasons with the big league club, all indications were that he would be an ace. His numbers were phenomenal and it didn't appear that he had any major weaknesses. That however, was all before injuries plagued him last season. He hasn't fully recovered and his numbers are now below average with a 4.35 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 2012. He is now in jeopardy of losing his spot in the rotation and likely won't be pitching any meaningful baseball in October. That's a far cry from where this guy was heading before the season started. The betting markets seem to think Hanson will get things figured out as they have installed him as a solid favorite against the best team in the National League. I think the wrong team is favored in this one. Washington has the best run differential in all of baseball and still plays as an undervalued team in my eyes. Take the Nats at a good price here.
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09-14-12 | Colorado Rockies v. San Diego Padres -170 | 7-4 | Loss | -170 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #914 San Diego Padres over Colorado Rockies (10:05pm EST) Today's matchup between the San Diego Padres and Colorado Rockies features an up and coming starting pitcher who will be a force to be reckoned with in years to come. He's under the radar right now, but the 26-year old throws in the high 90's and has great command of the strike zone. He's spent most of his short career in the bullpen, but the Padres moved him to the rotation in June. He has battled some injuries this season, but when he's been healthy he's been impressive as a starting pitcher. His owns a 2.87 ERA as a starter and has a 21-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He'll face a weak hitting Colorado lineup today that his without several key pieces. Troy Tulowitzki, Todd Helton, Michael Cuddyer and Ramon Hernandez are all on the disabled list currently. As a result, the Rockies are playing a lot of their younger guys to help get a better read on their talent for next year. With the youth movement the Rockies have really struggled to score runs away from Coors Field. In their last 33 road games, Colorado is averaging only 3.1 runs per contest. That puts extra pressure on Rockies started Tyler Chatwood, who will need to be even sharper to keep his team in the game. That's not likely as the right-hander owns a 5.32 ERA and 1.69 WHIP overall. Not many know it, but the Padres have been one of the best teams in baseball since the All-Star break. They boast a 35-22 mark in the second half (17-5 in the last 22 games) and are fresh off of a three-game sweep of the Cardinals. Believe it or not, the Pads are only seven games out of a wild card spot. They have too many teams to pass in a short amount of time, but there's no question that this team has tons of momentum right now. The price is a bit high, but fully warranted and I like the Padres to win this game rather easily.
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09-14-12 | Baltimore Orioles v. Oakland A's -144 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #957 Oakland A's over Baltimore Orioles (10:05pm EST) The Baltimore Orioles come into Oakland as one of the hottest teams in baseball. They're 26-11 in their last 37 games and have clawed their way into a first-place tie with the Yankees in the American League East. Everyone knows the story by now, but it's hard not to appreciate the scrappiness of this team. However, they head into tonight's game off of two very dramatic wins in Baltimore against the Rays and then had to fly across country to Oakland after a 13-inning game yesterday. Needless to say, they will be emotionally and physically drained to start another important series. The pitching matchup today heavily favors the A's. Tom Milone pitches for Oakland and he has been a beast at home in 2012, sporting one of the biggest home/road splits in baseball. On the road Milone owns a 5.13 ERA, while he maintains a current 2.77 ERA at O.co Coliseum. The park plays to his strengths as a fly ball pitcher and he's quickly learned how to take advantage. Baltimore has also never seen Milone before, so it's going to be tough for them to get a good read on him until they go through the lineup a couple of times.
On the other side is the newly-acquired Joe Saunders for the Orioles. The southpaw will be making his fourth start with the team, and he's been a bit shaky so far. He has two wins, but his ERA in his three starts is 4.24 and his all-important strikeout-to-walk ratio is only 8-6 in those outings. Pitchers who have been traded from the National League to the American League in 2012 have not fared well (see Zack Greinke, Anibal Sanchez and Ryan Dempster). There's no reason to believe the mediocre Saunders is going to be any different, so I'll call for the A's to knock him around pretty good today and get the win against an Orioles team that has to be a bit exhausted. Oakland is the play. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-13-12 | Oakland A's +130 v. Los Angeles Angels | 0-6 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 51 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #957 Oakland A's over Los Angeles Angels (3:35pm EST) The Oakland A's look for the four-game sweep today in Los Angeles in an effort to wipe away any playoff hopes that the Angels had. The A's continue to find ways to win with their young starting pitching, strong bullpen and timely hitting. At 82-60 with a +86 run differential on the season, it's just not fair to call this team a fluke or lucky. They are a legitimate contender and have a strong hold on the wild card spot with an eye on the division as well. Today they send their best starting pitcher to the mound - Brett Anderson. The southpaw has been amazing since coming back from Tommy John surgery. In his four starts, he is a perfect 4-0 with a 0.69 ERA and 0.77 WHIP. He's walked only three batters in 26 innings of work and looks better than ever. He'll go up against Angels ace Jered Weaver. However, Weaver is suffering with a fatigued pitching shoulder and his last start was skipped. He was struggling mightily before they finally gave him a little bit of rest, so there's no telling what kind of effort we're going to see from him today. I'm not sure it's going to matter because this A's teams just finds ways to win games. They've now won an amazing 12 straight games on the road and are looking for number 13 in this one. I think it will happen, and we get a nice dog price to boot.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-12-12 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. Arizona Diamondbacks -125 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #916 Arizona Diamondbacks over Los Angeles Dodgers (9:40pm EST) The Arizona Diamondbacks aren't quite out of the playoff race yet. At 70-72, Arizona is five games out of the second wild card spot. It would take an absolute miracle to pass the five teams ahead of them in the last three weeks, but we saw two miracles last season with the Cardinals and Rays making epic runs. The D-backs received an inspiring performance by Ian Kennedy last night against the Dodgers in a 1-0 win. It was the kind of win that could carry over a day and build some momentum. Their opponent the Los Angeles Dodgers haven't been playing great baseball lately. They've dropped five of six and are only 7-13 in their last 20 overall. Hitting has been the biggest problem as they've now been shutout in consecutive games and are averaging only 2.3 runs per game in their last 11 contests.
If the Dodgers are looking for a stopper on the mound today, they're not going to find it in Aaron Harang. The veteran right-hander has been awful of late. In his last seven starts, Harang owns a 4.85 ERA and his strikeout-to-walk ratio is only 25-21. He was much more reliable earlier on in the season, but at age 34 he isn't holding up as well late in the season. The consistent Trevor Cahill gets the ball for Arizona. He isn't flashy, but Cahill keeps his team in the game and rarely has a bad outing. In fact, he's allowed more than four earned runs in a game only once in his 28 starts this season. He also has been good against the cream of the crop lately, winning five of his last six games against teams above the .500 mark. His overall numbers aren't that much better than Harang's, but you have to remember that Harang pitches in a pitcher-friendly environment in Los Angeles while Cahill pitches in a hitter's haven in Arizona. The Diamondbacks have dominated this series recently winning nine of the last 11, and I expect them to notch another win today. |
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09-12-12 | Detroit Tigers -134 v. Chicago White Sox | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #925 Detroit Tigers over Chicago White Sox (8:10pm EST) Game three of the biggest series of the season so far kicks off tonight in Chicago as the White Sox host the Detroit Tigers again. The teams split the first two games, so the White Sox remain two games ahead in the American League Central. The Tigers go with their hottest pitcher today - Max Scherzer. In fact, the right-hander is one of the hottest pitchers in all of baseball. In his last six outings, Scherzer is 5-1 with a 1.26 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. His strikeout-to-walk ratio - a blistering 53-9. He faced the White Sox less than two weeks ago and blew them away pitching eight scoreless innings while striking out nine and walking only one. Gavin Floyd returns from the disabled list to pitch today's contest for Chicago. It hasn't been a good season for Floyd at 9-9 with a 4.55 ERA. He's been nicked up all year long with injuries and his latest problem is his elbow. You never know what you're go to get in your first start back off of an injury, and with the way Floyd has pitched this season I'm not expecting anything special. The Tigers prefer right-handers as well, so they should get their licks in early and often. Detroit has won 30 of the last 40 meetings, and I'll call for them to earn another victory tonight.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-12-12 | Tampa Bay Rays -115 v. Baltimore Orioles | 2-3 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #919 Tampa Bay Rays over Baltimore Orioles (7:05pm EST) The American League East is about as tight as it can be with only three weeks left in the 2012 season. The Baltimore Orioles are tied for first with the Yankees, and the Tampa Bay Rays are only two games back. Needless to say, this is a huge series and today's game is even bigger for the Rays after dropping game one in Baltimore last night. Tampa Bay can't afford to fall back three games in the division and wild card race with only 21 games remaining. They'll be counting on rookie Alex Cobb to pitch well in the biggest game of his life today. Luckily for them, he's had ice water in his veins since being inserted into the rotation back in mid-May. Cobb is 9-8 with a 4.28 ERA and has gotten better as time has gone on. He doesn't throw very hard, but he navigates the strike zone well and induces groundballs at a rate of 58%. The Orioles haven't seen him yet, so the rook should have the leg up the first couple of times through the order.
The Orioles will go with a rookie of their own in Miguel Gonzalez. He's also pitched well and stepped up in some big spots. He's 6-4 with a 3.62 ERA on the season and saved the team when a couple of their pitchers went on the disabled list. With two solid rookies on the hill today, this game could easily come down to the bullpens. Both squads have highly ranked pens - Tampa is 1st in bullpen ERA and Baltimore is 4th. However, the Rays are much better on the back end with Fernando Rodney as their closer. If the Rays can get any type of lead late, it's almost a done deal. Rodney has a 0.69 ERA and 0.78 WHIP and has converted 42 of 44 save chances. You just won't find a closer with better numbers than that. Sometimes the bullpen makes all of the difference in a big game like this, and I like the Rays today in a close one. |
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09-11-12 | Washington Nationals v. New York Mets -110 | 5-3 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #954 New York Mets over Washington Nationals (7:10pm EST) The New York Mets have been out of the playoff hunt for quite some time, while the Washington Nationals have been at the top of the National League East for most of the season. At first glance, it would seem as if the Mets have nothing to play for in this spot. But today, they have extra motivation with R.A. Dickey on the mound. Dickey's teammates believe that he deserves a Cy Young award this season. At 18-4 with a 2.64 ERA and 1.03 WHIP, he's certainly one of the front runners at the moment. The Mets know that they'll need to help him get to the 20-win mark to improve his chances and he only has five starts remaining. As a result, I think you'll see a little extra effort from New York as they try to back their ace.
Washington has a playoff spot locked up and are now just playing for positioning. They are currently 2.5 games ahead of the Reds for the top spot in the National League, but I'm not sure that they are that concerned earning that top seed. They obviously shut down Strasburg even sooner than expected and they've been giving guys days off here and there down the stretch to rest up for the postseason. You might see the Nationals getting a little too relaxed in these last few weeks as a result. Today's starter for them is Jordan Zimmermann. The right-hander has had a good season, but he's scuffled a bit lately. He has a 7.41 ERA and 1.59 WHIP over his last four outings, and hasn't looked like himself on the mound. It's not clear if he is having some fatigue issues after a long season or possibly battling through an injury, but he isn't pitching like he was earlier on in the season. The Mets should be fired up for today's game with Dickey pitching, so I expect them to put some runs on the board against a struggling Zimmermann. If Dickey just pitches like he always does, the Mets should come out with a win today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-10-12 | Detroit Tigers -103 v. Chicago White Sox | 1-6 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #915 Detroit Tigers over Chicago White Sox (8:10pm EST) Another big series between the Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox kicks off tonight in US Cellular Field. Right-hander Rick Porcello matches up with southpaw Jose Quintana. The Tigers swept the White Sox last week in Detroit and they've owned them over the last couple of seasons. The Tigers are 29-9 against Chicago in the last 38 meetings, including a 13-6 mark at US Cellular. And if the White Sox are hoping to buck that trend, they have the wrong starting pitcher on the mound in this one. Quintana has been hit hard lately. In his last three starts, the 23-year old has a 12.66 ERA and has walked as many batters as he's struck out. He may be wearing down a bit as he's pitched more innings this year than in any other during his professional career. This will be a pressure-packed series, and I'm not sure the youngster will be able to handle any more stress with the way he's struggling already.
Porcello is the same age as Quintana, but he already has nearly four full major league seasons under his belt. This will be the 117th start of his young career and he's pitched in several big games, so today's showdown shouldn't phase him much. In watching his recent starts, Porcello is doing a great job of keeping the ball down and inducing more groundballs. His control has also been pretty sharp and he seems locked in despite the fact that his teammates haven't given him much run support recently. The Tigers have dropped his last five outings, but Porcello hasn't allowed more than four earned runs in any one start. The Tigers are playing better baseball than the White Sox right now and with a more seasoned pitcher throwing today, I like their chances to escape with a win. Take Detroit at basically an even price. |
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09-10-12 | Cleveland Indians +109 v. Minnesota Twins | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
5-unit Play Take #917 Cleveland Indians over Minnesota Twins (8:10pm EST) There isn't much to play for besides pride for the Cleveland Indians and Minnesota Twins in today's series finale. Both teams have sputtered recently and you get the idea that both squads are focusing more on their offseason vacation plans rather than on September baseball. Nonetheless, the games must go on and someone has to come out on top. Indians ace Justin Masterson takes the ball in his 30th start of the season. He comes in at 11-12 with a 4.84 ERA and 1.44 WHIP, but he's pitched better than that. He's had a handful of really bad starts this season that have skewed his ERA, but he's showing signs of settling down. His control has been a little bit better recently and his velocity is on the rise over the last couple of months. Despite some off performances this season, he's fared well against the Twins over his career, and I expect a quality start today.
His mound opponent is Samuel Deduno. The 29-year old career minor leaguer is making his 12th start of the season today. He's really been hampered by control issues and is walking nearly as many batters as he strikes out. He's been very lucky to strand 80% of all baserunners to keep his ERA in the mid-3's, but no one can sustain that high of a rate for long. The Indians have one of the biggest righty/lefty splits in the major leagues. They are excellent against righties relative to their overall numbers and that should bode well for them today. The Indians have won five of their last seven games when Masterson has pitched as an underdog. Deduno doesn't belong in the majors and I think the Tribe score enough on him to win today's game, and we've made this our Game of the Day. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-10-12 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Cincinnati Reds -164 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #906 Cincinnati Reds over Pittsburgh Pirates (7:10pm EST) The Pittsburgh Pirates are fading fast. On August 1st, the Pirates were 60-44 and only three games behind the Cincinnati Reds in the National League Central. After going 12-23 in their last 35 games, the Pirates now find themselves at 72-67, 11 games in back of the Reds. They are a young team and it's clear they are having trouble handling the pressure of being in a playoff race. They're still only 2.5 games out of the second wild card, but it feels like a lot more. In all likelihood, they'll be fighting just to maintain a winning record as the season winds down. Left-hander Wandy Rodriguez pitches for the Pirates tonight. He's been pretty good lately, but the Reds are absolute lefty killers and they have hit well against Rodriguez over his career. Cincinnati also has Joey Votto back after missing a couple of months with an injured left knee. While the Reds performed admirably without their top slugger, the lineup is much more dangerous with him in the middle of it.
Mat Latos throws for the Reds in today's matchup. He's been extremely consistent recently throwing a quality start in seven of his last eight outings. He also has given up two earned runs or less in eight of his last nine outings. Needless to say, he's giving the Reds a chance to win every time he goes out there. He's had a bit of bad luck overall, but he still checks in at 12-4 with a 3.69 ERA for the 2012 season. The Reds are 10-2 in Latos' last 12 home starts and are 40-19 in their last 59 games overall. They have the better starting pitcher going today, the better offense and the better bullpen. The price is high on this game, but not high enough. Take the Reds in this spot. |
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09-09-12 | Arizona: P Corbin +119 v. San Diego: A Werner | 2-8 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 50 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #965 Arizona Diamondbacks over San Diego Padres (4:05pm EST) The Arizona Diamondbacks go up against the San Diego Padres in the rubber game of the series this afternoon. Two left-handers will face off today as Patrick Corbin pitches for Arizona and Andrew Werner for the Padres. The Diamondbacks are one of the better hitting teams versus lefties this season, while the Padres are close to the bottom in the league in that department - big advantage to Arizona. Corbin has pitched fairly well at 5-6 with a 4.13 ERA, but his peripheral statistics show a pitcher who is even better than his ERA indicates. He strikes out 7.8 batters per nine innings while only walking 2.3. He also keeps the ball on the ground pretty frequently and has good control of all of his pitches. He's been used as both a starter and a reliever this season, but his numbers have been better as a starting pitcher.
Werner has moved up to the big leagues after spending most of his season at Double-A and Triple-A. The Padres want to get a good look at the 25-year old to see if he's a candidate for the rotation in 2013. In his first three starts he's 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA and has looked good. However, two of those starts were in pitcher-friendly Petco Park and the other in Dodgers Stadium - another safe place for pitchers. Arizona's lineup isn't easy to navigate and I think Werner may run into some problems against a team that prefers southpaws. The D-backs are 21-10 in the third game of a series in their last 31, and I project that they'll add to that mark today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-08-12 | Oakland A's -125 v. Seattle Mariners | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #929 Oakland A's over Seattle Mariners (9:10pm EST) The Oakland A's look to make it two straight against the Seattle Mariners tonight with their hottest pitcher on the hill. Since returning from Tommy John surgery a couple of weeks ago, Brett Anderson has been brilliant on the mound in his three starts. He's 3-0 with a 0.90 ERA and 0.70 WHIP in addition to a 15-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio. You can't get much better than that, so there are no longer any questions about the health of the left-hander. He'll go up against a feeble Mariners offense that is hitting just .216 at home this season, the worst mark in the major leagues by a wide margin. Seattle has also been mixing in some younger players into their lineup every day, and has struggled to score runs a little more as a result. In their last 13 games, Seattle has averaged only 2.5 runs per game. With the way Anderson is throwing, it's hard to imagine them plating more than a run or two tonight.
The A's will face Hisashi Iwakuma in today's game. The Japanese right-hander has been very good lately for Seattle, but not quite Brett Anderson good. As if it wasn't enough going up against one of the hottest starters in baseball, he also has to face a hot hitting lineup. The A's have been on a tear offensively. In their last 10 games, Oakland is averaging 7.1 runs per game. The middle of the lineup has been red hot and they've moved way up the rankings in the American League offensively from the beginning of the year. From a motivation standpoint, this is a huge game for the A's for obvious playoff implications. For the M's, it's just another game in the final month of the season as they look ahead to 2013. With a better starter going today and more on the line for them, I like Oakland to escape with a win here. |
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09-08-12 | Chicago (N): Samardzija +145 v. Pittsburgh: J Mcdonald | 4-3 | Win | 145 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #909 Chicago Cubs over Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05pm EST) You could see it from a mile away a few weeks back, but now it's happening. The Pittsburgh Pirates are crumbling under the pressure of the playoff race. They were blown away 12-2 by the Chicago Cubs last night to make it a 14-23 slide in their last 37 games. The Pirates are now 1.5 games behind the Cardinals for the second wild card spot, but it already feels like the season is over for Pittsburgh. Right-hander James McDonald will go today to try and get the team back on track. He's had a solid season overall but has really struggled since the All-Star break. He posted a 5.97 ERA in July, a 4.45 ERA in August and his ERA in September is currently 23.63. It's possible that he's wearing down with a lot of innings pitched this season, but it's more likely that he might be dealing with an undisclosed injury. In either case, he hasn't been effective and is somebody you want to be fading. The Pirates are just 2-8 in his last 10 starts.
The Cubs have long been out of the hunt, but they have a lot of young hungry players vying for more playing time in 2013. One of those guys is today's starting pitcher Jeff Samardzija. The 27-year old right-hander has had a good season in his first year as a starting pitcher despite a poor 8-13 mark. His ERA is at 3.91 and he boasts a very impressive 9.3 strikeout due to his great stuff with plenty of movement on it. Samardzija has been excellent in his last six starts with a 2.48 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. His strikeout-to-walk ratio over that span is a dazzling 47-8. He's definitely earned a spot in the rotation for next year with the way that he's finishing up the 2012 campaign and I look for continued success from him. The Pirates aren't playing very good baseball right now and the Cubs have absolutely no pressure on them. Samardzija should be able to quiet the Pirate bats and get away with a win here as a nice-sized underdog. |
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09-07-12 | Arizona: T Skaggs v. San Diego: A Cashner -111 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #964 San Diego Padres over Arizona Diamondbacks (10:05pm EST) Two youngsters take the mound in a National League West battle between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the San Diego Padres. For the D-Backs it's left-hander Tyler Skaggs. The 21-year old broke onto the scene a couple of weeks ago and has made three major league starts to date. He's managed to keep his ERA at a low 2.60, but that's about the only good thing he has done so far. His strikeout-to-walk ratio of 6.2 - 4.2 per nine innings simply isn't going to cut it at the major league level. He also holds an extremely low groundball rate of 31%, which will get him into long ball trouble if he doesn't keep the ball down. Skaggs wasn't dominating at the minor league levels this season either, so I think he's a little bit overrated at this point.
The Padres Andrew Cashner is a potential star of the Padres rotation in the future. He has a devastating fastball in the high 90's and knows how to pitch at the age of 25. He's pitched mostly out of the bullpen in his young career, but San Diego thinks more highly of him and is confident he can be an ace of the staff. His strikeout rate is 11.1 per nine innings this season and, unlike Skaggs, he is a groundball pitcher at over 51%. This will be his first start back after suffering a lat injury in early July, but he pitched very well in his three rehab appearances and looks poised to earn a spot in the rotation for 2013 with a few good starts in September. The Pads have also been playing great baseball as a team lately and are 30-20 in their last 50 games, a very nice .600 clip for a team that no one gives much respect. Arizona, on the other hand, has been sliding a bit lately and is 4-9 in their last 13 games to basically knock themselves out of the playoff picture. With their motivation all but gone, I look for the surging Padres to take tonight's game behind the great live arm of Cashner. |
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09-07-12 | Detroit: M Scherzer -108 v. LA Anaheim: E Santana | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #977 Detroit Tigers over Los Angeles Angels (10:05pm EST) The Detroit Tigers head to Anaheim to take on the Los Angeles Angels in a huge series for both teams. The Tigers are just one game out of first in the American League Central and 3.5 games out in the wild card race. The Angels, meanwhile, sit 8.5 games out of first and just three away from the wild card. So this series could go a long way in deciding the wild card. For Detroit, they send their hottest pitcher to the bump today in Max Scherzer. In fact, no one in baseball is throwing better than Scherzer at the moment. In his last five starts, the right-hander is 5-0 with a 1.03 ERA and 0.97 WHIP to go along with a 44-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Confidence has long been an issue for Scherzer and now that he has it, he's one of the most dominating pitchers in the league. Ervin Santana throws for the Halos today, and it's been quite a rocky ride for him in 2012. He enters today's game at 8-11 with a 5.32 ERA. He has shown flashes of brilliance, but Santana has always been an inconsistent pitcher that you can't count on. In 10 of his 26 starts this season, he has yielded five runs or more. The only reason that he's still in the starting rotation is due to lack of options for the Angels with all of the injuries they have suffered.
The Tigers are 29-21 since the All-Star break and are finally clicking on all cylinders after a mediocre start to the season. With the hottest pitcher in baseball on the mound and one of the hottest teams, it's hard to believe that the price on this game is so low against a struggling pitcher. Take Detroit here as our Game of the Day. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-06-12 | New York (A): D Phelps v. Baltimore: J Hammel -105 | 6-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #908 Baltimore Orioles over New York Yankees (7:05pm EST) The biggest series of the year starts tonight in Camden Yards where the Baltimore Orioles host the New York Yankees. This is a four-game set and it could go a long way in determining which team wins the American League East. The Yankees are currently just one game up in the division over Baltimore, but the Orioles have been hot on their trail of late. Jason Hammel is coming back from a knee injury to make his first start since July 13th. He's been the ace of the Baltimore staff at 8-6 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.24 WHIP on the season, and the guy they want on the mound to get this series started. He'll face a Yankees lineup that has been sputtering lately and is without first baseman Mark Teixeira today. New York has averaged only 3.2 runs per game in their last eight contests. They're also only 20-25 as a team over their last 45 games and held a 10-game lead over the Orioles just one month ago. The Orioles, meanwhile, are 21-9 in their last 30 games and are out to prove to everyone that they are a playoff team. They'll go up against Yankees fill-in David Phelps today. The right-hander stepped into the rotation with multiple Yankee starters banged up. He has a respectable 3.13 ERA this season but most of that was accomplished while in the bullpen. He will likely only go about five innings in this one, so the Yankees middle relief will be tested. The O's have averaged 6.0 runs in their last seven games and have received big hits from nearly everyone in the lineup lately. I have a feeling that the O's fans will play a big part in this game. This is the most excited they have been about the team this late in the season since 1997. Momentum is rarely a big factor in baseball, but this is an exception and I like the Orioles in this one.
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09-04-12 | Minnesota Twins +140 v. Chicago White Sox | 18-9 | Win | 140 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #923 Minnesota Twins over Chicago White Sox (8:10pm EST) The Chicago White Sox are reeling a bit after getting swept by the Tigers in Detroit this past weekend. The White Sox relinquished their lead in the American League Central, and now have to pick themselves up off the mat against a pesky Minnesota Twins team. Two rookie southpaws go head-to-head in today's game, but only one is one for real. Scott Diamond of the Twins is 10-6 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 21 starts. He has solid peripheral numbers and excellent control for a youngster as he walks only 1.4 batters per nine innings. He keeps the ball on the ground and is wise beyond his years as far as his knowledge of the strike zone. His counterpart Jose Quintana checks in at 5-3 with a 3.17 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 19 games so far. Quintana wasn't very highly touted coming into this season and it was somewhat of a surprise when he ended up in the Sox rotation. He has a similar skill set as Diamond, but he doesn't have quite the same command of the strike zone and he doesn't keep the ball on the ground as often. He's also pitched fewer innings than Diamond and it appears that the league may be making the necessary adjustments against him. In his last two starts his ERA is 7.71 and he's walked nine batters in his last 16 1/3 innings pitched. The Twins have always been a thorn in the side of the White Sox and I think they get the job done with the better pitcher going today.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-04-12 | Baltimore: Z Britton +101 v. Toronto: Villanueva | 12-0 | Win | 101 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #917 Baltimore Orioles over Toronto Blue Jays (7:05pm EST) The Baltimore Orioles have won eight of 10 and are within just one game of the lead in the American League East. Nobody thought Baltimore would be in this position at the beginning of September, but they've played great team ball to get where they are. There have been many unsung heroes throughout the season, and today's started Zach Britton is making his way onto that list as well. Britton is 4-1 in his eight starts and has pitched much better than his 4.80 ERA indicates. In his last outing he stymied the White Sox allowing only one run in eight innings of work while striking out 10 and walking none. It was his best start of the season and a game that should instill a lot of confidence in the 24-year old. He'll face a decimated Blue Jay lineup that is without Jose Bautista, Brett Lawrie and J.P. Arencibia.
The season for the Toronto Blue Jays crumbled at around the halfway point when the injury bug hit the team hard. They lost nearly their entire starting rotation and over half of the regulars in the lineup over a few weeks. They're still suffering from various injuries and now the team just wants to focus on next season and get everyone back to good health. Winning baseball games just isn't the team's number one priority at the moment. Getting the ball today for the Jays will be Carlos Villanueva. He's been pretty good for them filling in for injured pitchers, but he doesn't have great stuff. The Orioles are home run hitting team and Villanueva is prone to giving up some long balls, so this is a good matchup for Baltimore. The O's have also been road warriors lately going 15-7 in their last 22 contests away from home. The Blue Jays check in at 9-25 in their last 34 games. All signs point to the Orioles in today's matchup. |
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09-03-12 | LA Anaheim: C Wilson v. Oakland: T Milone -101 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -101 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #976 Oakland A's over Los Angeles Angels (4:05pm EST) If this sounds like a broken record, it's not -the Oakland A's are the hottest team in baseball, again! Winners of nine straight games and 15 of their last 17, the A's have catapulted themselves into the top wild card spot and are now only three games behind the Texas Rangers in the American League West. They're not exactly playing the same brand of Moneyball that they have in the past, but their results have been great. Much of the credit has to be given to pitching coach Curt Young who has molded this young pitching staff into one of the best in the American League. They are currently 2nd in the league with a team ERA of 3.41. They've had four different rookies make significant contributions in the starting rotation, and today we'll get to see one of them. Tom Milone may be the best of the bunch. At 11-9 with a 3.73 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, this 25-year old knows how to pitch. He was acquired from the Nationals in the Gio Gonzalez trade and has been the rock of the rotation since day one. He also excels at home, owning one of the biggest home/road splits in baseball with a 2.34 ERA in O.co Coliseum and a 5.30 ERA on the road. The spacious ballpark in Oakland plays to his strengths as Milone is a fly ball pitcher who can locate his pitches very well. He'll have a tough task going up against a dangerous Angels lineup, but he's already beaten them twice this year and I like his chances to do it against a struggling C.J. Wilson. Take the winners of nine straight to extend their streak today.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-03-12 | Arizona: P Corbin +100 v. San Francisco: B Zito | Top | 8-9 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 0 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #963 Arizona Diamondbacks over San Francisco Giants (4:05pm EST) The Arizona Diamondbacks head to San Francisco to take on the Giants for this Labor Day afternoon tilt. Two left-handers take the mound, one of which is an up and coming youngster and the other who is a declining veteran. Arizona's Patrick Corbin is the youngster and he's quietly putting together a solid rookie season at 5-6 with a 3.93 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. He's gotten better as the season has progressed and is close to securing a spot in the rotation for 2013 if he can keep this up. Veteran Barry Zito is 10-8 with a 4.42 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. His skills are clearly declining and he's been very inconsistent for the entire season. You never know if you're going to get the bad Zito or the mediocre Zito when he takes the ball. The good news for Arizona is that there is no longer a good Zito anymore. Arizona hasn't been playing very good baseball lately, but I like their chances today with the matchup on the mound. Take the D-backs at a very reasonable price.
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09-02-12 | Chicago (A): C Sale +155 v. Detroit: Verlander | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #923 Chicago White Sox over Detroit Tigers (8:05pm EST) Two of the American League's best go head-to-head in Comerica for ESPN's Sunday Night Game of the Week. There's no need for much analysis in this matchup. Any time you can get a price of +150 on an elite pitcher like Chris Sale, it's almost a no-brainer play. At 15-5 with a 2.81 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, the 23-year old has established himself as one of the top pitchers in the American League. He probably won't earn the Cy Young this season, but you can count on him winning one in the near future. He goes up against another one of the best in Justin Verlander of the Tigers tonight. Everyone knows what Verlander is capable of - he can throw a no-hitter on any given day. However, he hasn't been quite as sharp of late and I think the White Sox can scratch a few runs together. Take the White Sox as a big underdog in the big game tonight.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-02-12 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Milwaukee Brewers -157 | 8-12 | Win | 100 | 3 h 39 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #908 Milwaukee Brewers over Pittsburgh Pirates (2:10pm EST) Yovani Gallardo is heating up and so are the Brewers as a team. Milwaukee is 10-2 in their last 12 games and is looking for a sweep against the Pittsburgh Pirates this afternoon. It's a little bit too late for the Brew Crew, as they already out of contention, but they've been great at playing the role of the spoilers so far against the Pirates as they've take four of five against them over the last 10 days. Gallardo comes in at 14-8 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.26 WHIP, but it's what he's done lately that is more impressive. In his last six starts, the right-hander is 6-0 with a 1.90 ERA and a 44-13 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He had a very similar run in the second half of the season last year and was dominant for a long stretch of time. Gallardo is one of the more streaky pitchers in baseball, and you want him on your side when he's pitching like this.
The Pirates go with right-hander James McDonald this afternoon. McDonald was brilliant for the first couple of months of the season, but lately he has been up and down. Over his last nine starts, he has a 6.24 ERA and has seemingly lost all of the confidence he worked so hard on building up early in the season. The Pirates have also been going downhill as a team recently. They are just 7-15 in their last 22 games and it appears that the pressure of the playoff race has finally gotten to this young team. The Brewers are just a much better team right now and with a red hot Gallardo on the hill, Milwaukee is the right side today. |
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09-02-12 | New York Mets v. Miami Marlins -141 | 5-1 | Loss | -141 | 2 h 40 m | Show | |
5-unit Play Take #902 Miami Marlins over New York Mets (1:10pm EST) The Miami Marlins host the New York Mets in this Sunday afternoon tilt. Only four games separate these teams and both are looking ahead to next season. Today's games features a huge disadvantage of the mound as Mark Buehrle goes up against Chris Young. With Buehrle, you know exactly what you're getting each start. He's going to battle and usually throw around six innings while giving up two or three runs or so. He doesn't usually dominate, but he keeps his team in the ball game and gives them a chance to win each game. He'll have the edge on the mound today as the Mets do not hit left-handers very well. Young, on the other hand, has been a ticking time bomb for most of the season. He's 3-7 with a 4.64 ERA and 1.37 WHIP, but that doesn't even begin to tell the story. In his last six starts, Young has failed to even make it through five innings in half of them. His ERA over that stretch is 5.79. He's wearing down because he hasn't pitched on a regular basis in three years, so the results won't be getting any better. He's managed to avoid the long ball for the most part so far, but his extremely low groundball rate of 23% will eventually catch up with him. The Mets are just 2-8 in Young's last 10 starts. I like the Marlins behind a reliable Buehrle in this one.
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09-01-12 | San Diego Padres +109 v. Colorado Rockies | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #963 San Diego Padres over Colorado Rockies (8:10pm EST) The Colorado Rockies host the San Diego Padres in a game with no playoff implications or very much interest from fans. Both of these teams have long been cast away and are essentially just playing for the future at this point. However, one team hasn't given up and is playing a lot better than most teams that are still contention and that's the San Diego Padres. Over the last six weeks, San Diego is 28-17 and has won 10 of their last 11. It's hard to pinpoint the strengths of the Padres team, as they get contributions from every player and aren't really great at anything. On the other hand, the Rockies can't wait for the 2012 season to end. They've endured injuries to several key players throughout the season, including shortstop Troy Tulowitzki who is still out. They've also performed very poorly in front of the home fans at only 25-36 in Coors Field, where they usually have a decent edge.
Today's starter for the Pads is Edinson Volquez. He's been pretty erratic in his first season in a San Diego uniform, but pitching in Coors Field should play to his strengths. He's a groundball pitcher who can get a strikeout when he needs it and that's important in a ballpark where balls fly over the fence often. Volquez is also coming off of back-to-back strong performances in his last two outings where he went 2-0 with a 1.98 ERA and 1.02 WHIP against the Diamondbacks and Pirates. His opponent on the mound will be right-hander Jhoulys Chacin. The 24-year old fought back from a pectoral injury which caused him to miss about half of the season. He's only made seven starts in 2012 and they haven't been particularly good. Chacin comes in at 1-4 with a 5.55 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. And unlike his counterpart, he is a fly ball pitcher - bad news in this park. The Padres enjoy the underdog role and are 10-1 in their last 11 games as a dog. They're a small underdog here again today, so I like them to keep the streak alive with another victory. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-31-12 | New York Mets -151 v. Miami Marlins | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #905 New York Mets over Miami Marlins (7:10pm EST) It wasn't long ago that R.A. Dickey was the talk of baseball. He was the leader in the Cy Young race and fans and media were enthralled with his wicked knuckleball. The talk has quieted down on Dickey, but he's still the same pitcher. At 16-4 with a 2.76 ERA and 1.02 WHIP, a Cy Young award is still within reach if he can finish the season on a high note. He'll probably need to surpass the 20-win mark, but he's definitely capable. He'll go up against a beleaguered Marlins lineup that no longer has Hanley Ramirez (trade), Emilio Bonifacio (injury) and Logan Morrison (injury). He has dominated the Marlins' hitters throughout his career, so the Mets shouldn't need many runs tonight.
The Mets will be looking to score those runs against youngster Nathan Eovaldi of Miami. The 22-year old was acquired from the Dodgers in the Ramirez deal, and he's struggled since the trade. In his six starts with the Marlins, Eovaldi has a 5.33 ERA and 2.07 WHIP. There's no question that Eovaldi isn't ready to be a major league starter yet and that he belongs in the minors for seasoning. However, with the Marlins out of contention they figure he'll get better experience in the big leagues. The Mets' lineup is only middle of the road, but with a struggling pitcher on the mound they should be able to take advantage. Take New York behind Dickey in this one. |
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08-29-12 | St Louis: J Kelly -114 v. Pittsburgh: W Rodriguz | 0-5 | Loss | -114 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #909 St. Louis Cardinals over Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05pm EST) The National League contenders are a little uneasy these days. That's because the St. Louis Cardinals are back in the playoff picture and they're the team that no one wants to face once we get into October. The defending champs are 71-58, currently holding the second wild card spot. They've endured quite a few injuries this season but have continued to battle and own the best run differential in baseball. Offensively they're a juggernaut and they have several stud pitchers in their rotation. The bullpen is the one weak link, but they've been better of late. Today's starter is rookie Joe Kelly, who comes in with respectable numbers at 4-5 with a 3.26 ERA in 14 games. He has impressed the club and was recently promoted back into the rotation in favor of teammate Lance Lynn. Lynn was having a good season, so it says a lot that the organization chose Kelly and I'm sure that will aid his confidence from here on out.
After being the biggest surprise in the National League for the first half of the season, the Pittsburgh Pirates are starting to slide. They're just 6-13 over their last 19 games as the pressure appears to be getting to them. Left-hander Wandy Rodriguez will try to stop the bleeding today for the Pirates. He hasn't exactly fit in well with the team so far as his first six outings have yielded a 1-4 mark with a 4.86 ERA. The Cardinals aren't exactly the kind of lineup you want to see when you're looking to turn things around, so I expect the struggles to continue. This is the rubber game of the series and a very important one for both teams as they are only separated by two games in the standings. The Cardinals have been playing better lately and have the better starting pitcher at the moment so I look for another victory from St. Louis. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-29-12 | Cincinnati Reds -120 v. Arizona Diamondbacks | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 11 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #903 Cincinnati Reds over Arizona Diamondbacks (3:40pm EST) The Arizona Diamondbacks aren't quite dead yet, but they're close. At 64-66 and 7.5 games behind in the wild card hunt, the chances are slim that the team can find a way to squeeze into the playoffs. Arizona might be mailing it in as they've dropped five straight and 15 of 24 games while not looking very focused. Rookie Patrick Corbin goes today for Arizona. The southpaw is 5-5 with a 3.91 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 15 games in 2012. Those aren't bad numbers but he's struggled in his last couple of outings with a 6.54 ERA against the hapless offenses of the Padres and Astros. Rookies generally start to wear down towards the end of the season, so this isn't a surprise. The Reds offense is much better especially when they go up against left-handers. They are 14-3 in their last 17 starts versus lefties, so Corbin may be in for a rough day.
While the Diamondbacks have been struggling, the Reds have been working on trying to wrap up the National League Central title. Even without their star slugger Joey Votto, the Reds have gone 35-14 in their last 49 games for an amazing .714 winning percentage. Pitching has been the name of the game for Cincinnati as they've had steady starting pitching combined with a lights out bullpen led by flamethrower Aroldis Chapman. Mat Latos gets the ball today and he's been solid after a slow April. The right-hander is 10-4 with a 3.84 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. The Reds are 13-5 in Latos' last 18 starts overall. The attitude on these two teams is very different right now and I think Cincinnati should be a much bigger favorite in this one. Take the Reds to complete the sweep today. |
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08-28-12 | Cincinnati Reds -108 v. Arizona Diamondbacks | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #963 Cincinnati Reds over Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40pm EST) There are a handful of pitchers in each league that don't get the respect that they deserve for one reason or another, and Johnny Cueto is definitely on that list. At 16-6 with a 2.47 ERA and 1.14 WHIP, Cueto should be getting some serious Cy Young consideration but his name is rarely brought up when the so-called experts talk about candidates. This is on the heels of a season in which he had a 2.31 ERA, so there's nothing flukish about the numbers for this right-hander. He's remarkably consistent and has only given up more than three earned runs in four of his 26 starts this season - and even those starts weren't that bad as he was able to pick up the win in two of them. Cueto is only 26 years old and entering the prime of his career, so it's scary to think about the damage he could do as he continues to learn how to pitch.
The Arizona Diamondbacks have been scuffling a bit of late after climbing their way back into the National League West race just a couple of weeks ago. They've dropped four straight and are just 9-14 in their last 23 games overall. They'll try to weather the storm with left-hander Wade Miley tonight. The rookie is 14-8 with a 2.80 ERA on the season, but he's at 151 innings pitched and that's a lot more than he's thrown at this point in the season at any level. That may be an issue as we head down the stretch and I wouldn't be surprised to see some drop off in his numbers. Today will be a tough challenge against a Reds lineup that feasts on southpaws, with the best left-handed splits in the major leagues as a team. With two very good pitchers throwing today, this game very well could be decided in the bullpen and that would be a huge advantage for the Reds. They have arguably the best closer in the game and very capable 7th and 8th inning arms. The Reds are 24-9 in Cueto's last 33 starts and the Diamondbacks have lost five of six games against right-handed starters. Take the Reds today at a great price. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-27-12 | Tampa Bay Rays -113 v. Texas Rangers | 5-6 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #919 Tampa Bay Rays over Texas Rangers (8:05pm EST) Big series starts today in Arlington where the Rangers host the Tampa Bay Rays in the first of three games. Tampa will send one of the hottest pitchers in baseball in David Price to the mound for the series opener. Price is 16-4 with a 2.28 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in his best season as a pro so far. He's been even more locked in recently as he hasn't allowed a run in three of his last four outings while compiling a miniscule 0.60 ERA. He's simply untouchable at the moment and is probably the leader in the Cy Young race as we speak. He'll face a stiff test tonight against the Rangers, but when pitchers are in this good of a groove it usually doesn't matter who the hitters are in the batter's box. When you're dealing, you're dealing.
Derek Holland gets the unenviable task of matching up against Price. It's been a hard season for the left-hander as he's 8-6 with a 4.92 ERA and has suffered from some injuries in 2012. In his last seven games, Holland has a 6.08 ERA and there are signs that he could be experiencing lingering pain from a fatigued left shoulder. He'll face a Rays' offense that doesn't have great numbers on paper, but they now have Evan Longoria back and several other key players that have missed significant time during the season. Tampa is one of the hottest teams in baseball since getting Longoria back and has won 14 of 19 overall. There's also a good chance that this game gets decided by the bullpens, and the Rays have the best one in the league. This is a small price to pay to back a potential Cy Young winner pitching behind a red hot ball club, so take the Rays in this one. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-27-12 | Chicago (A): F Liriano v. Baltimore: W Chen -114 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #914 Baltimore Orioles over Chicago White Sox (7:05pm EST) We're heading down the stretch in the MLB season and the Baltimore Orioles are still hanging around. They are tied for the second wild card spot at 69-57 and aren't showing any signs of letting up. They begin a four-game set with the Chicago White Sox today and rookie Wei-Yin Chen will get it started for the O's. The lefty import has been a steady force in the rotation all season at 12-7 with a 3.87 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. Many expected him to struggle in the second half once the league saw him a few times, but he's only gotten stronger and more confident as time has gone on. He'll go up against fellow left-hander Francisco Liriano of the White Sox today. As usual, it's been an up and down season for Liriano. He's 5-10 with a 5.12 ERA and 1.42 WHIP overall with the Twins and Sox. With all of the talent that he has, it's hard to comprehend how he can't put up better numbers. Most of his problems stem from his confidence and mental game. As the White Sox enter the stretch run and the pressure intensifies, I'd expect Liriano to crumble even more than he has so far. He's not built for pressure situations. The Orioles have also done very well against southpaws this season and are 10-3 in their last 13 games versus lefties. Baltimore isn't going anywhere this season and I like them to continue their winning ways against Chicago tonight.
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08-26-12 | Atlanta: T Hudson v. San Francisco: T Lincecum -118 | 7-1 | Loss | -118 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #962 San Francisco Giants over Atlanta Braves (8 pm EST) It hasn't been a pleasant season for Tim Lincecum. Going from a two-time Cy Young award winner to a 7-13 record with a 5.30 ERA is quite a fall from glory. However, Lincecum has endured quite a bit of bad luck this season and he's started to look a bit like his old self over the last six weeks. In his last eight starts, he's 4-3 with a 3.10 ERA and has kept his team in each ball game. The good news is that the Giants will also have his back if he does happen to struggle today as they've been tearing the cover off the baseball lately. In their last 22 games, San Francisco has averaged 6.0 runs per game and has a 15-7 record as a result. The pitching staff has carried this team for much of the season so it's good to see the offense finally picking up the slack, making this a complete team.
While things are looking up for Lincecum and the Giants, the same can't be said of Brave's starter Tim Hudson. The veteran right-hander is finally starting to show some signs of slowing down at age 37. His strikeout rate is only 5.5 per nine innings (close to his career low) and he's not inducing quite as many groundballs as he has in the past, which is his trademark and biggest reason for success. That's not to say that Hudson still isn't a quality pitcher, because at 12-4 with a 3.69 ERA he is clearly finding a way to get things done. But at this point he's just a bit overrated and the betting marketplace is still treating him as a pitcher in his prime. This line seems a bit light for San Francisco at home today. |
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08-25-12 | Atlanta: M Minor v. San Francisco: Bumgarner -150 | 7-3 | Loss | -150 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
5-unit Play Take #908 San Francisco Giants over Atlanta Braves (4:05pm EST) No one is throwing better right now than Madison Bumgarner of the San Francisco Giants. In his last eight starts, the 23-year old left-hander is 4-2 with a 1.93 ERA and a 0.77 WHIP. In his last outing against the rival Dodgers, Bumgarner pitched eight scoreless innings while striking out 10 batters and walking none. It was an absolute gem in a high-pressure type of environment in Dodgers Stadium and the kid stepped up. He's clearly reached a new level and is in the elite category of pitchers in the National League. He'll face an Atlanta lineup that's a bit overrated in my estimation and that struggles against left-handed pitching. It's been nearly two months since Bumgarner has given up more than three runs in a game, so I don't expect it to happen today either.
The Braves have a problem - a good problem. They have six pretty good starting pitchers in their rotation right now and are looking to move one of them into the bullpen for the September stretch run. Unfortunately for today's starting pitcher Mike Minor, he's looking like the favorite to get that demotion. It's been a tough season for the southpaw as he's only 6-10 with a 4.74 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. He's definitely flashed some signs of turning things around, but consistency has been a problem for him. It's going to be a tough go for him today against a streaking Giants team that has won 15 of 21 games. They no longer have Melky Cabrera due to his PED suspension, but other guys have picked up the slack and their lineup is clicking on all cylinders. The Giants are 22-10 in Bumgarner's last 32 starts and I like their chances in this one. Take San Francisco as our Game of the Day. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-24-12 | San Diego Padres v. Arizona Diamondbacks -175 | 5-0 | Loss | -175 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #962 Arizona Diamondbacks over San Diego Padres (9:40pm EST) As we head into the last week in August, the races are heating up as the teams in contention gear up for the stretch run. There is a fairly clear line between the teams in contention and the others who are looking ahead to next season. However, there are a few teams on the cusp who need to make a serious move soon and the Arizona Diamondbacks are one of those teams. At only six games back in the National League West, it may seem like they have a real chance to win the division. But with two teams ahead of them (Dodgers and Giants), it's going to be very difficult for them unless they go on a tear and it will need to start soon. The D-backs have won six of eight and are heating up, but they know that they need to take advantage of a home series against one of the weaker teams in the league - the San Diego Padres. Patrick Corbin gets the ball for Arizona today and he has looked very good on the mound lately. In his last four starts since rejoining the rotation, the left-hander is 3-0 with a 2.77 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. Three of those starts were on the road as well and now he returns home where he's pitched much more effectively on the season. His splits, 2.36 ERA at home and 4.46 ERA on the road, are awfully large and that is often an overlooked aspect.
The Padres have been on a good run lately, but they send one of their worst starters out there tonight in Eric Stults. The southpaw was acquired from the White Sox earlier in the season to help fill the void on an injury-plagued pitching rotation. Stults only punches out 4.0 batters per nine innings and walks 2.3. His stuff is mediocre and there's nothing he does that impresses anyone. He's managed to keep his ERA in the low 3's for most of the season due to pitching in Petco Park, a pitcher's haven, so don't be fooled by his raw numbers. Today he won't get that luxury of a spacious park and he'll face an above average lineup that hits lefties well. In fact, Arizona is 13-3 in the last 16 games versus southpaw starters. With Corbin on top of his game and the D-Backs playing better baseball, I think this line should be much higher. Take Arizona and lay the juice. |
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08-24-12 | Minnesota: S Deduno v. Texas: M Harrison -220 | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #978 Texas Rangers over Minnesota Twins (7:05pm EST) If you made a list of the most over-rated starting pitchers in all of baseball, Samuel Deduno might not be at the very top of the list but he'd be pretty close. The rookie right-hander comes into today's game at 4-1 with a 3.33 ERA in eight starts. Now that's not a terribly big sample size, and probably not enough games to really call him over-rated since most people haven't even had a chance to rate him yet. But he's clearly been one of the luckiest pitchers in the big leagues during the time that he's been pitching. Deduno is walking over 7.0 batters per innings. That's the worst mark in the American League and he's only striking out 5.9 batters per nine innings. He has a good groundball rate at 57%, but even that's not enough to compensate for his control issues on the mound. Deduno has gotten himself into several jams in each start this season and he always seems to find a way to escape with very little damage done. It's been proven that pitchers can't sustain that type of success with runners on base, so he's due for some major regression. And if there were a spot where you could imagine for the wheels to fall off, it could easily be against the Texas Rangers in Arlington.
The Rangers have scored more runs per game at home than any other team in the American League and have a 38-23 mark at home on the season. After quite a big lull in the middle of the season, the Rangers are hitting again and have averaged 5.9 runs per game over their last 22 games. In those 22 games, they are 14-8. Matt Harrison starts in this one and I'd have to put him on the under-rated side of the ledger in the American League. He's 14-7 with a 3.19 ERA and 1.26 WHIP with half of his outings in Arlington - one of the worst parks to pitch in. That's on the heels of a good season in 2011 where he went 14-9 with a 3.39 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. He doesn't get a lot of attention with the Texas lineup getting most of the accolades, but Harrison is a gamer and belongs in the discussion of the better pitchers in the American League. Today's game is a complete mismatch and I don't expect it to be very close. The line is high, but Texas still has some value at this price. |
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08-24-12 | Toronto Blue Jays +101 v. Baltimore Orioles | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 0 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #969 Toronto Blue Jays over Baltimore Orioles (7:05pm EST) The Blue Jays lineup is all of a sudden potent again. That's because slugger Jose Bautista will be hitting in the middle of it and he changes the entire dynamic of the offense. Bautista spent four weeks on the disabled list and the Jays consequently fell apart as a team. In his absence, Toronto went 10-23 over 33 games and averaged less than 3.6 runs per game in the process. The Jays have also suffered with a host of other injuries, but getting their best player back will make a world of difference today. They'll go up against left-hander Zach Britton of the Orioles today. The 24-year old has had a difficult season fighting back from injuries early on and spending most of his season in the minor leagues. He's been up with the big club and has made six starts so far without much success. He is coming off of a strong performance his last time out, but his ERA is still at 6.23 and he's struggled with control.
The Jays have their hottest starting pitcher on the mound in Carlos Villanueva. The right-hander started in the bullpen this season and was moved to the rotation with all of Toronto's injuries there. Since the transition, Villanueva has a 3.02 ERA and 1.10 WHIP - numbers that are even better than when he was a reliever in shorter stints. That's pretty impressive, especially given the fact that he's went up against some of the better offenses in the American League in his nine starts. He'll stand on the mound against an Oriole offense that has struggled lately and fallen to 10th in the league in runs scored. They are an all or nothing kind of hitting team, and with a hot pitcher going up against them that could spell trouble. I look for the Jays to come with an inspired effort with their leader back, and they are a solid play as an underdog here. |
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08-23-12 | Oakland A's v. Tampa Bay Rays -173 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #916 Tampa Bay Rays over Oakland A's (7:10pm EST) All of a sudden, things are looking pretty good for the Tampa Bay Rays. Over the last three weeks, the Rays are 18-6 and have catapulted themselves from mediocrity to within three games of the first place Yankees in the American League East. They've done it with the formula that all teams strive to win with - pitching and lots of it. The Rays come into today's game with the best starting rotation ERA (3.46) and the best bullpen ERA (2.85) in the American League. Nobody is too surprised with the great efforts from David Price, James Shields and Matt Moore, but it's guys like Alex Cobb who have helped round out the rotation and give this team a chance to win every day. Cobb throws today and has had a very good rookie campaign. The right-hander is 7-8 with a 4.74 ERA in 2012, but that doesn't begin to tell the story of his season. Cobb has one of the lowest strand rates for runners left on base in the league (64%), so it's safe to say he's been unlucky. His strikeout-to-walk ratio of 6.6-2.5 per nine innings is very good and he keeps the ball on the ground with a 59% groundball rate. Those are all great numbers for a rookie and adds up to a pitcher who should carry an ERA in the mid 3's. He's coming off a poor outing against the Angels in Anaheim where he gave up eight runs in less than three innings. But prior to that, he had seven straight starts where he only allowed three runs or less. Bottom line, I think this guy knows how to pitch at the young age of 24 and he's flying under the radar a bit.
Tyson Ross pitches for the Oakland A's today in place of Bartolo Colon, who was just suspended for testing positive for PEDs. This obviously wasn't the plan, as the A's were hoping to keep Ross down in the minors until next season so he could get some more seasoning rather than throw him in the middle of a tight wild card race. But they didn't have many choices for today's spot start. Ross is just 2-8 on the season with a 6.35 ERA and 1.75 WHIP. He clearly wasn't ready for the big show, as he struggled with control and was constantly getting himself into jams. Playing against the Rays, this is also one of the few times where the A's can't say that they have an advantage in the bullpen. The A's bullpen in many ways has been the backbone of the team in 2012, but the Rays' bullpen has been even more lights out - especially lately. This is a lopsided matchup today in nearly every aspect, so take the Rays here. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-22-12 | Atlanta Braves -115 v. Washington Nationals | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 25 h 18 m | Show |
10 unit Play Take #957 Atlanta Braves over Washington Nationals (7:05pm EST) The fans in Atlanta were calling for it for quite some time, but nobody expected this from Kris Medlen. The 26-year old right-hander had been working in the bullpen for the majority of the season, but a spot opened up when Tommy Hanson was placed on the disabled list a few weeks ago. The Braves had a couple of options, but eventually decided to give Medlen a chance based on his success in the pen. Up until that point, Medlen had pitched very well in relief with a 2.48 ERA and 1.09 WHIP and everyone knew he had great stuff. But since he was placed into the rotation, he has been unstoppable. In four starts, Medlen is 3-0 with a 1.05 ERA and 0.90 WHIP as well as a 22-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His last time out he pitched a complete game shutout in front of the Atlanta fans. This is why they were calling for him to start and he has certainly answered the bell. Today he
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08-21-12 | Cincinnati: H Bailey v. Philadelphia: C Lee -154 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -154 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #902 Philadelphia Phillies over Cincinnati Reds (7:05pm EST) The Philadelphia Phillies are no longer in the National League playoff picture - they never really were this season. However, that doesn't mean that this team isn't still dangerous. With Ryan Howard and Chase Utley back in the lineup and their top two aces 100% healthy, this team is better than their 57-65 record indicates. They've won 10 of 16 and have taken turns winning games with their bats and with their stellar rotation. Cliff Lee gets the ball today and he's finally found a groove in 2012 after a rough start. Over his last four starts, Lee has a 3.34 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in addition to an eye-popping 30-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He's no longer is his prime, but Lee is still one of the better pitchers in the National League and I think he might be flying under the radar a bit now.
The Cincinnati Reds send right-hander Homer Bailey to the mound today. He's had an up and down year and checks in at 10-8 with a 4.28 ERA. He hasn't been sharp of late as he's surrendered at least four earned runs in his last four outings and his control has been wild. The Reds are without slugger Joey Votto. So far they've managed pretty well without him, but at some point the role players aren't going to be able to keep picking up the slack and I think the Red's offense will suffer. Cincinnati is also only 2-9 in their last 11 games as a road underdog. I think this Philadelphia team will do a good job of playing spoiler down the stretch here as they no longer have any pressure on them. I like them today behind a surging Cliff Lee. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-20-12 | San Francisco: Bumgarner +145 v. Los Angeles: C Kershaw | 2-1 | Win | 145 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #963 San Francisco Giants over Los Angeles Dodgers (10:10pm EST) It's another showdown between the top two teams in the National League West as the Los Angeles Dodgers host the San Francisco Giants tonight. The Dodgers took over first place yesterday, but these teams have been neck and neck for quite some time. The fans and media are a little bit down on the Giants right now after losing Melky Cabrera for the rest of the season due to his suspension. However, San Francisco is still 10-6 in their last 16 games and their offense has been producing. Over that 16-game stretch, the Giants are averaging 6.6 runs per game and they've been getting contributions from everyone in their lineup. They won't need to put too many runs on the board today as they have one of the league's hottest pitchers throwing in this one. Madison Bumgarner is making a name for himself at the ripe old age of 23. He's 13-7 with a 2.97 ERA and 1.01 WHIP for the season, but it's what he's done over the last six weeks that's really impressive. In his last seven starts, Bumgarner has a 2.25 ERA and 0.81 WHIP and a 46-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He's clearly reached a new level and is starting to put his name into the Cy Young discussion if he can keep it up.
The Dodgers counter with an ace of their own in Clayton Kershaw. The imposing left-hander is 11-6 with a 2.90 ERA and 1.01 WHIP on the 2012 campaign. Those numbers are great, but they're not as good as the numbers he put up in 2011. Kershaw just hasn't dominated the same way he did last year and has shown to be susceptible when he doesn't have his best stuff. He's still a guy that any team would love to have at age 24, but I don't rate him any better than Bumgarner at the moment. This will be the first game home after a 10-day road trip for Los Angeles, so they won't be enjoying the same kind of home field advantage that they normally do when they are sitting back waiting for their next opponent. All in all, I think these teams are very even and their record definitely reflects it with the two teams only a half game apart. Today's starting pitchers are also about as even as you can get, so with the line in the 140's, the value appears to be on San Francisco. |
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08-20-12 | New York Yankees -109 v. Chicago White Sox | 6-9 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #969 New York Yankees over Chicago White Sox (8:10pm EST) We've been riding the Yankees train for quite some time and it's paid off handsomely. New York owns the best mark in the American League at 72-49 and their team just seems to get better as the season goes on. They just won a three-game series versus their rival the Red Sox and that makes five straight series wins for the Bronx Bombers. Still the linesmakers and betting markets fail to give enough respect to this team and the lines each night are very reasonable. Tonight they are basically an even line against the Chicago White Sox. The Yankees have a better offense than the White Sox, a much better bullpen and are more experienced. As a result, the linesmakers must be giving the White Sox a huge advantage in the starting pitching department today to put this line where it's at. I just don't see it.
Freddy Garcia is one of the more underrated starting pitchers in the American League. The guy is 35-years old and he knows how to get the job done. He's 7-5 with a 4.68 ERA on the season overall, but since he was given a second chance as a starter, Sweaty Freddy has been magnificent. In his nine starts since being placed back into the rotation, Garcia has allowed more than three runs only once and that was only four runs. Over that span he owns a 3.69 ERA and is 5-3, doing an excellent job filling in with the injury to Andy Pettitte. He faces his old team today and I expect him to continue rolling along. Gavin Floyd pitches for the White Sox. The 29-year old has had a very disappointing season at 9-9 with a 4.43 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. In his defense he has battled through some injuries, but it appears that those injuries may still be affecting him on the mound. Over his last five starts, Floyd has walked an uncharacteristic 17 batters. His strikeout total over that span is only 21. That's a terrible ratio and it's tough to survive pitching like that. He did look better in his last outing but the Yankees lineup is no fun to deal with and he had a miserable performance against them back in July. New York has won eight of the last 10 in this series, including the last six in Chicago. I like them to continue that trend today as they go with an underrated Freddy Garcia. Take the Yanks at a very small price. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-19-12 | Minnesota Twins v. Seattle Mariners -120 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 57 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #928 Seattle Mariners over Minnesota Twins (4:10pm EST) The Seattle Mariners host the Minnesota Twins in the series finale this afternoon in Target Field. This definitely won't be one of the highest rated baseball games on the card today, but that doesn't mean there isn't a good opportunity to cash in. The Mariners could have easily thrown in the towel in this season shortly after the All-Star break. At 40-55 in last place in the American League West on July 20th, the M's were clearly not going anywhere this season - but they continued to play hard. That effort has paid off lately as the team has went 17-9 in their 26 games since then. There are a lot of young players on this team fighting for spots on next year's edition, so I don't expect them to let up from here on out. They'll be backed by right-hander Blake Beavan today. Over his last five starts, the 23-year old has started to show signs that he might be a part of the Seattle rotation going forward. He has a 3.41 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in that span and his strikeout-to-walk ratio is an impressive 21-2. This is a big confidence booster for Beavan who has had problems with consistency in his young career.
Speaking of young careers, Samuel Deduno pitches today for the Twins. Although he's 28-years old, this is his first full season in the majors. He's pitched admirably in his seven starts going 4-0 with a 3.38 ERA, but he won't be able to maintain it. Deduno is somehow getting by even though he's walking 6.8 batters per nine innings. That's one of the worst rates in baseball. It would be somewhat acceptable if he was at least striking out a high amount of batters as well, but at the moment he's walking more than he strikes out. He's also been aided by an obscene 81% strand rate, a mark that will fall precipitously as time goes on. 28-year old pitchers making the majors for the first time usually isn't a good sign. If he had great stuff or something to hang his hat on, he would have been up with the big club long ago. It might not be long before he is sent back down to where he truly belongs - Triple A. And it's there where he probably ends up making a career. The Mariners have been playing great baseball lately and they have a much better pitcher throwing today, so we'll gladly go to the window here. They look for the sweep at home today in our Game of the Day. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-19-12 | Tampa Bay Rays v. Los Angeles Angels -138 | 8-3 | Loss | -138 | 4 h 28 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #924 Los Angeles Angels over Tampa Bay Rays (3:35pm EST) The Tampa Bay Rays are red hot, there's no denying it. Tampa has won 10 of 12, and with Evan Longoria back in the lineup, the Rays' chances of making the postseason are starting to look a little bit better. But as the Rays have been streaking, people seem to be forgetting about the Los Angeles Angels. Yes they are struggling right now, but at one point of the season the Angels were only 18-25 and now they're right in the thick of the wild card race. Today's line seems like too much of a reflection of the way these teams are playing right now instead of who is actually on the mound and what the strengths of these teams are.
Left-hander Matt Moore is throwing for the Rays today and he's had a very up-and-down season. He's been throwing very well lately with a 1.10 ERA in his last five outings, but it's hard to trust a 23-year old to continue to stay that consistent. The Angels are a good hitting team against southpaws and that should make it challenging for Moore. On the other side is Zack Greinke, who was acquired near the trade deadline from the Brewers. Greinke has always been somewhat of an enigma, but he's also been one of the best pitchers in baseball at the same time. He's 10-4 with a 3.81 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 2012 and this hasn't been one of his better seasons. However, he's been on the wrong side of luck as his peripheral numbers add up to a pitcher who should own an ERA right at 3.00. This will be Greinke's fifth start in an Angel's uniform and the second against the Rays in three weeks, so I expect him to be a little more comfortable with his new team. On paper the Angels have a better lineup, a better bullpen and they play better defense. They also have the edge on the mound today, so we'll grab them at a very reasonable price at home in this one despite how well the Rays are playing. |
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08-19-12 | Chicago White Sox v. Kansas City Royals +105 | 2-5 | Win | 105 | 3 h 5 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #922 Kansas City Royals over Chicago White Sox (2:10pm EST) What a difference a league makes. For Jeremy Guthrie, moving from the National League back to the American League where he started has made all of the difference. Guthrie had a disastrous cup of coffee with the Colorado Rockies going 3-9 with a 6.35 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in 19 games this season. He was finally relegated to the bullpen when his manager lost all confidence in him and it didn't look like he would ever be a starting pitcher again. But a deadline deal sent him packing to Kansas City and he welcomed the change of scenery. Since coming back to the American League, Guthrie is a respectable 2-3 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. On top of that, he's growing stronger in each start and has blanked the opposition in his last two outings, which includes 15 innings of work. He'll look to extend his scoreless innings streak against a White Sox lineup that has shown some weakness of late. Generally it's a lot easier facing National League teams with the pitcher batting and less overall talent, but Guthrie clearly missed his time in the junior circuit and he seems like a good play on pitcher going forward.
For the White Sox, left-handed rookie Jose Quintana toes the rubber. Quintana has looked good at 5-2 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in his first major league season, but regression is definitely coming his way. Quintana has benefited from an 80% strand rate, something that is unheard of by starting pitchers. Once that falls to a more sustainable level, you'll see a corresponding hike in his ERA. He also strikes out less than five batters per nine innings, making it difficult to dominate for long stretches. Quintana wasn't even in the top 20 prospects in the White Sox organization at the beginning of the season, so this performance is really coming out of nowhere. Sure the kid may be a quick learner, but he's going to get knocked around as the league gets more familiar with him. The Royals look for the sweep today against Chicago and I'm calling for them to get it today. |
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08-18-12 | Chicago White Sox v. Kansas City Royals +145 | 4-9 | Win | 145 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #976 Kansas City Royals over Chicago White Sox (7:10pm EST) The Kansas City Royals look to win back-to-back games against the Chicago White Sox after beating ace #1 Chris Sale last night. Tonight they'll face White Sox ace #2, Jake Peavy, but the task is not as tall as it appears. Peavy comes in at 9-8 with a 3.04 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 162 2/3 innings in 2012. Those numbers look great, but they are deceiving. Almost all of Peavy's peripheral statistics are nearly the same as last season (strikeouts and walks per nine innings, groundball rate and HR/fly ball ratio), but last year his ERA was 4.92. What that tells you was that he was a bit unlucky last year and is getting extremely lucky this season. His true ERA should be somewhere in the middle, around the high 3's or low 4's. In addition, this is the most innings that Peavy has pitched since 2008. With all of the injury problems that he has had over the last four years, he hasn't been able to complete a full season so it's reasonable to assume that this year's workload is putting more wear on him than usual. The Royals have hit well against Peavy in his career and I think they have a good shot to get to him tonight at home.
Bruce Chen goes for the Royals in this one. While it hasn't been a very good season for him, he has pitched a lot better at home and Royals have won six of Chen's last seven home starts. Overall, the Royals have won seven of 10 and seem to finally be coming together a bit now that the pressure is off. They have a good collection of young talent and with a number of guys auditioning for spots on next year's team, I think they are hungry enough to be competitive down the stretch. The White Sox have dropped eight of the last 11 starts by Peavy. I like this Royals team down the stretch and think they offer good value in today's game. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-17-12 | Los Angeles Dodgers +115 v. Atlanta Braves | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #905 Los Angeles Dodgers over Atlanta Braves (7:10pm EST) Chris Capuano is one of the most underrated starting pitchers in the National League. At 11-8 with a 3.11 ERA, the left-hander has quietly given the Dodgers over 150 quality innings this season. He doesn't throw hard, barely getting above 90mph with his fastball, but he certainly knows how to pitch. Capuano is coming off one of his better efforts of the season where he pitched eight shutout innings against the Marlins while striking out 10 batters. The Braves aren't particularly adept at hitting southpaws so I don't expect them to threaten Capuano much today.
On the other side, Tommy Hanson gets his first start since going on the disabled list with a bad back issue. Backs are a tricky type of injury and pain can flare up at any time, so I wouldn't be surprised if Hanson isn't too effective in this one. It's been his worst season of his professional career as he comes in with a 4.29 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. He's managed to earn a 12-5 mark, but don't let that fool you as he's received great run support in his starts. Both of these teams have been playing great baseball lately, but I think the Dodgers are a better team after making several big acquisitions at the trade deadline. Adding Shane Victorino and Hanley Ramirez to put some talent around Kemp and Ethier was a smart move and puts the Dodgers up there as one of the more potent lineups in the league. This line feels just a little bit too big today and I like Los Angeles to escape with a win. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-16-12 | Texas: D Holland v. New York (A): I Nova -116 | 10-6 | Loss | -116 | 2 h 43 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #964 New York Yankees over Texas Rangers (1:05pm EST) We're going to keep this one short because the concept is very simple. The New York Yankees are a much better team than the Texas Rangers right now and they've clearly proved it over the first three games of the series by taking all three by a combined score of 14-4. For some reason the betting markets have disagreed as the lines have remained low and money has come in on Texas. On the mound we have a couple of pitchers who have been roughed up a bit lately. Derek Holland has been tinkering with his stuff after experiencing some injury issues and he's been getting lit up in the process. In this last three starts his ERA is 5.76 and his control has been very spotty. Ivan Nova has a worse ERA at 9.17 in his last three outings, but he does hold a 20-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Neither of these pitchers is as bad as their results lately and I expect both to bounce back in a big way today. As a result, this game is likely to be decided by the respective bullpens and the Yankees have a clear advantage in that department. The Yankees are 55-26 in their last 81 games against southpaws and I think they get the job done again today.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-15-12 | Texas Rangers v. New York Yankees -120 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #926 New York Yankees over Texas Rangers (7:05pm EST) It's hard to believe, but the Yankees seem to be an underrated commodity right now. For years the Bronx Bombers were the bettors' favorite team to back and lines were regularly shaded 5-10 cents to offset the square money that bookmakers knew would come in. Times have changed however, and at this point I don't think the market respects this Yankees team enough. Today they're at home versus the Rangers, a team that has really been treading water over the last six weeks at 17-19 in their last 36 games, and the Yankees are only -120 favorites.
The pitching matchup is relatively even with Scott Feldman going up against Freddy Garcia. Both right-handers have had their ups and downs this season, but neither of these guys is much better than the other. Offensively, Texas has scored only six more runs than the Yankees on the season despite playing half of their games in Arlington. In the bullpen, the Yankees clearly have an advantage as they have some of the most reliable arms in all of baseball even without Mariano Rivera. The Yankees have been playing better ball of late and have the more complete team. We'll continue to take advantage of the lower lines and keep pounding the Yankees here. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-15-12 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. St.Louis Cardinals -175 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #916 St. Louis Cardinals over Arizona Diamondbacks (8:15pm EST) Adam Wainwright is officially back. After returning from Tommy John surgery at the beginning of the season, the 30 year-old right-hander definitely had some rust on his arm, but he's back to the old Wainwright now. In his last four starts, he's 3-0 with a 1.84 ERA and 0.95 WHIP while holding a 26-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He's backed by the best hitting team in the National League as the Cards come in averaging 4.9 runs per game in 2012. The biggest problem for St. Louis this season has been their bullpen. Their bullpen has a 4.25 ERA on the season and they've only been able to count on a couple of guys to give good efforts on a consistent effort. Luckily for them, with Wainwright on the hill, they won't need more than one or two guys in the pen tonight. He's went at least seven innings in four of his last five starts and the other one he went six full innings.
Left-hander Joe Saunders pitches tonight for the Diamondbacks. He's been solid this season at 6-8 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. But he certainly doesn't knock your socks off, and I think the Cardinals lineup is potent enough to give him some trouble. The last time Saunders faced St. Louis, he gave up seven runs in 3 1/3 innings in a loss. I would expect more of the same tonight as the Cards look to continue their hot run lately winning seven of their last 11 games. Take St. Louis tonight behind the red hot Adam Wainwright. |
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08-15-12 | New York Mets -110 v. Cincinnati Reds | 1-6 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #913 New York Mets over Cincinnati Reds (7:10pm EST) Once upon a time R.A. Dickey was the top story in baseball as his knuckleball mystified major league baseball and talks of Cy Young were touted across the country. However, Dickey went through a mediocre stretch of games and the story eventually died off. The 38-year old right-hander is back on track now and is getting into a groove very similar to the one he was in earlier in the season. Over his last three starts he's put together a 1.17 ERA and 0.83 WHIP to go along with a 27-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The only difference this time is that there isn't as much hoopla surrounding him and that means we still have value on tonight's game. He'll be going up against a Reds lineup that is missing superstar Joey Votto and that has been struggling a bit to score runs consistently. Over their last 10 games, the Reds are averaging only 3.6 runs per contest. They'll have their work cut out for them today as they don't hit right-handers very well and Dickey is exceptionally deceptive. Mike Leake pitches for the Reds tonight. He comes in at 4-7 with a 4.51 ERA and has been marred by inconsistency during his three-year career. The Mets haven't been hitting well lately either, but they do perform much better against right-handers. New York is also 21-8 in Dickey's last 29 starts and I like their chances to add a victory to that total today.
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08-14-12 | Boston: J Beckett v. Baltimore: W Chen -106 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #968 Baltimore Orioles over Boston Red Sox (7:05pm EST) The Boston Red Sox are all but dead in the American League while the Baltimore Orioles are currently in line for a wild card spot - is this really happening in 2012? Almost no one could have predicted that these franchises would pull off a virtual flip-flop this season, but that's exactly what has happened. Starting pitching has been the biggest downfall for this year's Red Sox edition, and Josh Beckett is probably at the top of the list of disappointments. The 32-year old right-hander is 5-9 with a 4.97 ERA and 1.30 WHIP this season. He's had a host of injury issues throughout the year and he was skipped in the rotation two starts ago. He followed that up with a five-inning, eight-run debacle in his most recent outing. Clearly Beckett is still suffering from lingering health issues and it's probably affected him mentally as well. Whatever the problem, he's definitely not right and he is someone you want to be on other side against.
The Orioles are one of baseball's biggest surprises this year at 62-53 in the toughest division in baseball. Everyone keeps waiting for them to come back down to Earth, but it may not happen. The Orioles recently got a nice shot in the arm when they brought up phenom Manny Machado. The 20-year old answered the bell by smashing two home runs in just his second major league game, and he's sure to improve an offense that had been struggling a bit of late. On the mound for Baltimore is lefty import Wei-Yin Chen. The deceptive hurler is having a great first season in the major leagues at 10-7 with a 3.79 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. He's faced the Red Sox twice this season and pitched well enough to help Baltimore earn two victories, sporting a 3.00 ERA with eight strikeouts and three walks. The Red Sox have not been very good in the opening game of a series this season as they've dropped 14 of their last 19 openers. A day off seems to favor the Orioles as they are 11-4 in their last 15 games following a day of rest. Believe it or not, the Orioles are the better team right now and there's some value here at taking them at home in this one. |
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08-14-12 | Texas: M Harrison v. New York (A): H Kuroda -135 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #970 New York Yankees over Texas Rangers (7:05pm EST) Two first place clubs go at in the Bronx as the Yankees host the Rangers tonight. Hiroki Kuroda gets the ball for New York and he has been on an absolute mission lately. Over his last five outings, the right-hander has a 1.82 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. The key to his dominance has been his control as he's only walked three batters over those five starts combined. Kuroda has also been spectacular in Yankee Stadium this season as he's 7-4 with a 2.55 ERA and 1.04 WHIP - not too shabby for pitching in a hitter-friendly environment.
Pitching for Texas is left-hander Matt Harrison. He's been a little off his game of late as he's posted a 5.55 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in his last four starts. Texas as a team has also struggled lately. Since July 1st, the team is 17-18 and has seen the Angels and A's close the gap in the American League West. Their hitting has been inconsistent and their pitching staff has had some major breakdowns in both the rotation and the pen. The Yankees are 54-26 in their last 80 games against left-handed starters dating back to last season, and I look for them to continue that dominance at home today. Take the Yanks. |
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08-13-12 | Los Angeles: A Harang v. Pittsburgh: J Karstens -124 | 5-4 | Loss | -124 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #902 Pittsburgh Pirates over Los Angeles Dodgers (7:05pm EST) Another week has passed and the Pittsburgh Pirates are still hanging around at 64-50, second place in the National League Central. It's taken awhile, but the Pirates have finally earned some respect and they are a team to be reckoned with - especially at home. Pittsburgh is 36-20 at PNC Park in 2012, which is tied for the best home record in all of baseball. They're a young team that is growing up before our eyes and clearly being at home is where they're comfortable and where they excel. Today's starter Jeff Karstens clearly fits that description as he's pitched much better in front of the hometown fans this season. The right-hander is 2-2 with a 5.66 ERA and 1.40 WHIP on the road this season, but at home he's 2-0 with a 1.33 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. And when his night is over, he'll turn it over to one of the best bullpens in the league to finish the job. The pen has been a complete surprise this season for the Pirates as they've turned it from a weakness into a huge strength.
The Dodgers come in from Miami for this one, where they took two of three from the hapless Marlins over the weekend. Los Angeles has been battling back and forth with the Giants in the National League West for a while, but this team definitely isn't realizing all of their potential for some reason. The Dodgers are only 20-28 in their last 48 games and things haven't gotten much better after making several big acquisitions at the trade deadline. The Dodgers added Hanley Ramirez, Shane Victorino and Joe Blanton to provide a big shot in the arm, but they haven't produced much so far. One of the main reasons for the team's struggles is that the production of Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier hasn't been even close to what it was early on in the season. Part of that could be due to injuries but a larger part is that pitchers haven't been eager to pitch to them. Today's starting pitcher for Los Angeles is Aaron Harang. The veteran right-hander has really been in a funk lately and in his last three starts he is 0-2 with a 5.89 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. Those numbers aren't going to cut it, especially considering that two of those starts were in the pitcher-friendly Dodgers Stadium. With a strong home field advantage, a better starter on the mound and a better overall team, it's hard to believe that we're getting the Pirates at only -125 today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-12-12 | New York (A): P Hughes -165 v. Toronto: J Happ | 7-10 | Loss | -165 | 2 h 53 m | Show | |
5-unit Play Take #967 New York Yankees over Toronto Blue Jays (1:05pm EST) The Toronto Blue Jays are an absolute mess at the moment. First, they started dealing with injuries to their starting rotation about two months ago, as one by one they put starting pitchers on the disabled list. Now they're missing half of their everyday lineup and are forced to play youngsters that weren't supposed to see the field until 2013. It's just too much to endure and it's catching up to them as the Jays have dropped five straight games and 11 of 13. Their depleted squad sits in the cellar of the American League East as they now are looking ahead to the future instead of a shot at the playoffs this season. The games must go on, however, and Toronto sends the newly acquired J.A. Happ to the mound today to face the Yankees in an effort to avoid the sweep. Happ was acquired from the Astros at the trade deadline and was initially placed into the bullpen before given a chance in the rotation. The 29-year old left-hander is a combined 7-10 with a 4.98 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in his stints in both leagues this season. Those aren't very good numbers and you can't expect them to get any better pitching in the toughest division in baseball.
For the Yanks, right-hander Phil Hughes takes the ball today. Hughes is having a decent season at 11-9 with a 4.10 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. However, he's been even better on the road this season as his pitching style is better suited for more spacious ball parks. As a result, he should feel comfortable in the Rogers Centre today. He'll be facing a beleaguered lineup that's missing star Jose Bautista, Brett Lawrie, Adam Lind and J.P. Arencibia. Colby Rasmus and Yunel Escobar are also questionable and could miss today's game as well. With all of the missing players, Toronto's lineup will feel much more like a Triple-A lineup than anything else. It's hard to picture the Jays finding a way to win today's game unless they get an absolute gem from Happ against a tough Yankees lineup, which is extremely unlikely. Go with New York here as they should coast to a victory this afternoon in our Game of the Week. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-11-12 | Cincinnati: B Arroyo -149 v. Chicago (N): T Wood | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #901 Cincinnati Reds over Chicago Cubs (4:05pm EST) The Cincinnati Reds just broke a five-game losing streak yesterday against the Cubs in a 10-8 win. Despite their recent struggles, the Reds still hold a 3.5 game lead in the National League Central, which is a testament to how good they've been all season. The key to Cincinnati's success has been their strong bullpen. Sure they have a decent offense and some good starting pitchers, but their bullpen has been lights out from the middle men all the way to the closer. The Reds have amassed a 2.59 bullpen ERA in 2012, which is first in all of baseball by a wide margin. At the back end, no end is better than stopper Aroldis Chapman. The flame throwing left-hander has been clocked at over 105mph this season and is striking out a ridiculous 16.9 batters per nine innings. He holds a 1.31 ERA and 0.69 WHIP as he rarely gets himself into any trouble at all. If the Reds have a lead late, you might as well chalk up a victory with the Reds' pen.
Neither one of today's starters is very impressive as Bronson Arroyo and Travis Wood are just you're average #3 or #4 type starters. However, Cincinnati is going to have a much easier time of it today as Wood is a southpaw and the Reds love raking against lefties. With Joey Votto currently on the disabled list, the Reds are typically playing seven right-handers in their everyday lineup. As a result, it's no mystery why they've racked up much better numbers against left-handers and have won six of their last seven games against them. The Cubs come into today's game struggling in every phase of the game and have lost nine of their last 10. They're starting to bring up some of their Triple-A prospects to audition them for 2013, so the worst lineup in baseball just got even worse. The Cubs are dead last in most major batting categories already, and it might get downright embarrassing in the last two months now. The Reds are the much better team here and I think they take this one rather easily. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-10-12 | Washington Nationals -118 v. ARI DIAMONDBACKS | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #963 Washington Nationals over Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40pm EST) It's hard to believe that Stephen Strasburg isn't getting more respect from the betting markets today. The Nationals have the best record in baseball and have arguably the best pitcher in baseball on the mound, yet they are favored at only -120. Sure, Arizona has been playing better of late, but the Nationals have been playing good baseball since day one and they are finally just getting healthy for the first time. Lineup stalwarts Michael Morse and Jayson Werth have missed a significant chunk of the season, and they are now healthy and swinging the bats well. The Nationals come in winning seven of their last eight games, while Arizona has dropped four of five games.
The Diamondbacks come in at 56-55 overall and have clawed their way back into the National League West race, only to scuffle this week and give up some ground. Today they'll send right-hander Trevor Cahill to the bump. The 24-year old is 9-9 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 22 starts on the 2012 campaign. Cahill is a remarkably consistent pitcher for his age, but he rarely dominates anyone and he may need a dominating performance to one up Strasburg. The Nationals have been absolute road warriors dating back to the end of last season and have went 46-22 in their last 68 games away from home. They've also won 10 of their last 13 against right-handed starters. All signs point to Nats victory and we get a very generous price to boot. |
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08-10-12 | Oakland A's +110 v. Chicago White Sox | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #975 Oakland A's over Chicago White Sox (8:10pm EST) We have an interesting handicap today between a pitcher coming back from an injury and another one that might require another trip to the disabled list soon. Brandon McCarthy of the A's has been dealing with a shoulder issue over the last six weeks, but it appears that it's behind him. He had a great outing in his last start in Triple-A where he struck out nine batters and walked none in six innings. The A's are also very careful about not bringing back their pitchers until they are 100%. They have the luxury of having quite a few good arms, so you can be confident that McCarthy won't feel any effects from his shoulder problems.
On the other side of the diamond, White Sox pitcher Gavin Floyd certainly appears to be suffering from a lingering tendinitis issue in his forearm. He says that he's healthy, but his numbers say otherwise. In this last three starts, the right-hander has 14 walks and only eight strikeouts in 19 innings of work. He's managed to work himself out of some jams and escape disaster, but he's bound to give up the big inning with the control problems he's having. Oakland isn't a great hitting team, but one thing they are is patient as they are third in the American League in bases on balls. The A's have also went an amazing 22-6 in their last 28 games versus right-handers. I look for more of the same today as Oakland is the right side in tonight's matchup. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-10-12 | Detroit: M Scherzer +120 v. Texas: S Feldman | 6-2 | Win | 120 | 9 h 14 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #973 Detroit Tigers over Texas Rangers (8:05pm EST) The Detroit Tigers are surging. After a slow start to 2012, it was only a matter of time before this team climbed back into the pennant chase. The Tigers are 21-10 in their last 31 games and most of their wins have not been close. Of their 21 victories over that span, only two have been by a single run. Their offense has picked up the slack and is hitting better than they have all season. In their last eight games, Detroit is averaging 7.1 runs per game. They've been led by Miguel Cabrera who has been on an absolute tear over the last six weeks or so and has entered his name into the MVP race in the American League. The unpredictable Max Scherzer starts today for Detroit, but we have him in a good role today - as an underdog. Scherzer is usually either really good or really bad and when he's on, he dominates hitters. Texas is a tough group to face, especially on the road, so we're betting that we see the good Scherzer today. And if he's not quite perfect, there's a good chance that the red hot Tiger's bats can pick him up.
The Rangers haven't been playing inspiring ball over the last few weeks. They're 10-9 in their last 19 games and have the A's and Angels nipping at their heels in the American League West. The pitching staff has been a disaster between injuries and plain poor effort. Today's starter for Texas is Scott Feldman, who wasn't even slated to be a member of the rotation at the outset of the season. He's pitched admirably filling in for Texas at 6-6 with a 4.52 ERA, but he's not going to blow anyone away. He pitches well against weak competition, but has really struggled against some of the better hitting teams in the American League. In fact, the Rangers are only 4-12 in Feldman's last 16 starts against teams with winning records. I think the Tigers are going to be a little bit too much for him to handle in this one. |
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08-10-12 | St.Louis Cardinals v. Philadelphia Phillies -121 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #954 Philadelphia Phillies over St. Louis Cardinals (7:05pm EST) My how things have changed. If today's game between the St. Cardinals and Philadelphia Phillies were being played in early April, the line with this pitching matchup would probably be close to -180 for the Phillies. However, with the Phillies disappointing season and the good fortunes of Kyle Lohse, Philadelphia comes in at only a slight favorite. Roy Halladay has missed most of the season with a shoulder injury, but this will be his fifth start back from the disabled list and he's gotten stronger in each outing. In his last start against the Diamondbacks, Halladay pitched seven scoreless innings while striking out five and walking only one. His control has been pinpoint, something he has struggled with earlier on in the season, and he's only walked a total of three batters in his last four starts since returning. While he may not be quite the pitcher he was in the last few seasons, Halladay looks about 90% or so and that's much better than most pitchers in baseball.
Lohse is enjoying one of the best seasons of his career at 12-2 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. However, his numbers don't quite add up as none of his skills have really changed much. At 34-years old, starting pitchers don't generally improve this much after being in the league for over 10 years. Lohse is still striking out 5.4 batters per nine innings, which is the same as his career mark. His groundball rate is actually worse than his career levels at only 41% in 2012. He hasn't developed any new pitches or come back from any serious injuries either. The only improvement he has made is that he's walking one less batter per nine innings than his career average. While that is a significant reduction, it doesn't justify an ERA that is 1.7 runs lower than his career mark. Bottom line - expect some regression from the veteran from here on out. The Phillies lineup hasn't hit to its potential this season, but they're still dangerous with Chase Utley and Ryan Howard starting to get comfortable at the plate. This will also be one of the few matchups where the Phillies can say that they have an advantage in the bullpen, as the Cardinals pen has been a complete disaster over the last couple of months. With Halladay getting back into his old form, the line on this game is just way too low and that's why we've made it our 10-unit Game of the Day |
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08-09-12 | San Francisco: Bumgarner v. St Louis: Wainwright -135 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 2 h 53 m | Show | |
2-Unit Play. Take# 904 St. Louis over San Francisco (1:45 p.m., Thursday, August 9) Adam Wainwright looks to continue his solid pitching as of late to help the Cardinals get a win today and split this 4 game set with the Giants. Wainwright (9-10, 4.03 ERA) has produced a 1.84 ERA over his last 4 starts while striking out 28 and only walking 2 in 29 1/3 innings. He is 5-2 with a 2.40 ERA in his last 8 home starts and has allowed 2 runs or fewer in all but one of those starts. Madison Bumgarner (12-6, 3.03 ERA) was beaten by St. Louis the last time he faced them May 16, giving up 4 runs over 7 1/3 innings in a 4-1 defeat. Bumgarner has struggled on the road this year with an ERA of 4.03 which is 2 runs higher than his ERA at home of 1.98.
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08-08-12 | New York (A): C Sabathia -136 v. Detroit: A Sanchez | Top | 12-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 53 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #975 New York Yankees over Detroit Tigers (7:05pm EST) CC Sabathia is on the mound for the Yankees today and he looks as good as ever. The burly left-hander is 11-3 with a 3.53 ERA and 1.20 WHIP on the season, and in last outing he went the distance against the Mariners striking out 10 and only walking one. Sabathia is a rare breed as he's always been one of those pitchers who get better as the season goes along. He doesn't wear down like many other pitchers do, and he seems to find himself a nice groove in the second half of the season. He'll face a Tigers lineup that struggles against southpaws, hitting only .250 against them for a 10th place ranking in the league. It surely won't be any easier with Sabathia in his second half groove either.
The Tigers made some moves at the trading deadline to improve their team for the stretch run, and one of the guys they acquired was today's starter Anibal Sanchez. The 28-year old right-hander is having a decent season at 6-8 with a 3.99 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, but most of those starts were against much weaker National League hitters. There aren't many lineups comparable to the Yankees in the National League and Sanchez didn't look too incredibly comfortable against the Indians and Blue Jays in his first two American League starts. Sanchez will need to be extremely sharp going up against Sabathia, but I don't think he's comfortable enough to do that yet. Take the Yankees at a low price with Sabathia on the hill. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-08-12 | Texas Rangers -113 v. Boston Red Sox | 10-9 | Win | 100 | 3 h 32 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #969 Texas Rangers over Boston Red Sox (1:35pm EST) Josh Beckett can't be trusted. It's been proven many times over this season and today we get another opportunity to play against him. He's had one of the worst seasons of his career numbers-wise, has been caught up in the middle of drama in the clubhouse, has fought several injuries and had to endure the trade rumors at the deadline. Clearly he isn't in good form and has a lot going on physically and mentally. It's definitely shown in his performance this season and today he'll go the mound after being pushed back a few days in the rotation due to back spasms. Against a dangerous Texas lineup today, I think this one could get ugly quick. It's hard to believe, but the Red Sox are only 55-55 on the season and people are finally starting to figure out that this isn't a very good ballclub. They're still without David Ortiz and have yet to have their regular lineup 100% healthy at the same time.
Matt Harrison throws for the Rangers in this one. He's had a solid season at 13-6 with a 3.17 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. He's often overlooked as one of the better starting pitchers in the American League, likely because most of the attention is focused on the offense in Arlington. Harrison's numbers are even more impressive when you consider the fact that he pitches in an extreme hitter-friendly park. On the road Harrison owns a 2.99 ERA and 1.21, numbers that are understandably better than his at home. Consequently, the Rangers are 19-7 in Harrison's last 26 starts on the road - many of which were as underdogs. Boston has a good lineup despite missing Ortiz, but the Red Sox have been awful against Harrison in his career with a collective .430 OPS. It's going to be tough for Boston today against Harrison and with a struggling Beckett on the hill. They are just 2-7 in Beckett's last 9 starts and there's a good chance that moves to 2-8 after today. Take the Rangers this afternoon. |
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08-07-12 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Tampa Bay Rays -175 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #924 Tampa Bay Rays over Toronto Blue Jays (7:10pm EST) He's baaaaack. After missing over three months with a hamstring injury, Rays superstar Evan Longoria is finally back in the lineup. The 26-year old is a game changer both offensively and defensively and provides a huge boost to a Tampa Bay lineup that really needs it. With Longoria in the lineup, the Rays have averaged 4.6 runs per game in 2012. Without their stud third basemen, they have only averaged 3.8 runs per contest. Consequently, the Rays went 15-8 before the injury, and are 41-44 since. Longoria is a gold-glover and a team leader in the dugout - something that this team certainly needs down the stretch in the pennant race.
James Shields is the Tampa starter today. The right-hander is coming off of his best start of the season in which he pitched a complete game shutout at Oakland with 11 strikeouts and no walks. It was his third straight double-digit strikeout performance, indicating that his stuff is the best it's been all year. He'll go up against a Toronto team that is a bit of mess right now. Jose Bautista, the team's heart and soul much in the same vein as Longoria is, has been on the disabled list with a wrist injury since mid-July. Without their All-Star slugger, the Jays are only 8-10. Toronto is also without the services of starters Adam Lind and J.P. Arencibia, and Colby Rasmus and Brett Lawrie are also banged up but may play today. As a result, Toronto's lineup has been a hodgepodge of bench players and youngsters getting their first chance in the big leagues. That means there will be some extra pressure on Toronto starter J.A. Happ on the hill today. Happ was acquired at the trade deadline from the Astros and will be making his first American League start after making a few appearances in the bullpen initially. It was a little odd that Happ wasn't placed into the rotation right away when he was traded for, so I'm a little bit leery of his confidence level right now. He wasn't having a particularly good year with the Astros and things are only going to get tougher in the most difficult division in baseball. I look for the Rays to give him a nice rude awakening in his first start today. And don't expect the offense to win today's game for the Jays with Shields in good form and a second-rate lineup out there for Toronto. This one has Tampa Bay written all over it. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-07-12 | Minnesota: S Deduno v. Cleveland: C Kluber -114 | 7-5 | Loss | -114 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #920 Cleveland Indians over Minnesota Twins (7:05pm EST) The Cleveland Indians look to break a 10-game losing streak tonight against the Minnesota Twins. The Indians obviously haven't been playing well, but the question isn't if this is a bad team or not. The question is - does this team offer value today? And the answer is a definitive yes. Rookie Corey Kluber is on the mound today for the Tribe and he looks like he could be a good major leaguer. This will only be his second career start, but he put up solid numbers at Triple-A this season and has some nasty stuff. His fastball can exceed 95-mph and that helped him earn a 9.2 strikeout rate per nine innings in the minors. This will obviously be the first time the Twins have seen him, which should help Kluber the first couple of times through the order. Minnesota also struggles against right-handed pitching - another big plus in favor of the rook.
The Twins send 29-year old Samuel Deduno to the bump today. After bouncing around the major leagues and minor leagues the last few seasons, Deduno finally has settled into a rotation. He doesn't have particularly good stuff, which is probably why he hasn't received a legitimate chance at starting until now. His numbers so far aren't too bad, but control has been a huge issue for Deduno and it will eventually be his undoing. He currently has a walk rate of 6.2 per nine innings, which is more than he strikes out. In his last start, Deduno walked four while only striking out one in six scoreless innings in Boston. That's playing with fire as you need a lot of luck on batted balls to avoid disaster when you have poor control and can't strike anyone out. The Indians pound right-handed pitching and I think they can crack Deduno today. This line on this game is a bit tricky, but I think Cleveland is the right side despite dropping 10 straight. |
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08-07-12 | New York (A): P Hughes -104 v. Detroit: R Porcello | 5-6 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #921 New York Yankees over Detroit Tigers (7:05pm EST) The New York Yankees look to avenge last night's 7-2 loss at the hands of Justin Verlander and the Detroit Tigers. Today will be a much easier matchup on the mound as the Yanks get to take their swings at right-hander Rick Porcello. The 23-year old has had a disappointing season at 8-6 with a 4.65 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. Many expected him to have a breakout year in his fourth full season in the big leagues, but he hasn't shown much improvement this year. He's struggled recently and in his last five starts he owns a 5.59 ERA. Avoiding the big inning has always been a problem for Porcello, and the Yankees' lineup has big inning written all over it. Expect to see plenty of firepower from the Bronx Bombers today.
On the other side of the diamond, the Yankees will look to shut down a red hot Tigers offense with the arm of Phil Hughes. The right-hander has had an up and down season, but he has pitched much better away from Yankees Stadium in his career. Most of that has to do with his fly ball tendencies, and with Comerica being a much bigger ballpark, I expect Hughes to continue his trend of throwing better on the road. You don't see the Yankees as such small favorites very often unless they're going up against an ace pitcher, and Porcello certainly is not one. Don't forget that the Yankees are still the best team in the American League and they have a much better offense and bullpen than the Tigers do. Today's line just seems like a flat out mistake and we'll take advantage by playing on New York. |
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08-06-12 | Texas Rangers -133 v. Boston Red Sox | 2-9 | Loss | -133 | 8 h 31 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #971 Texas Rangers over Boston Red Sox (7:10pm EST) The Texas Rangers face off against the Boston Red Sox in a complete mismatch on the mound. Yu Darvish takes the hill for the Rangers and he's lived up to the billing this season. At 11-7 with a 4.38 ERA (not bad considering half of his starts are in Arlington), the Japanese phenom has been the anchor of the Texas staff. He's the only starter in their rotation that has avoided an injury this season and has been an innings eater who has saved the bullpen from wear and tear. This will be the first time that the Red Sox will see Darvish up close and personal and that's a big advantage for the right-hander due to his unusual delivery. On the other side will be veteran Aaron Cook. The 33-year old is trying to resurrect his career in Boston, but instead he's been busy escaping from disaster. Cook is 2-5 with a 5.24 ERA in his eight starts in 2012 - not exactly the kind of numbers you're looking for from your starter. Even worse, he's only striking out 0.8 batters per nine innings. That is by far the lowest strikeout rate in all of baseball and there's almost no way to survive in the big leagues at that rate. He does have good control and keeps the ball on the ground a heavy amount, but a patient lineup like Texas with hitters that can wait for their pitch will be able to take advantage of him.
Both of these teams have underachieved of late, but Boston is by far having the more disappointing season. Red Sox backers have lost over 14 units this season, but the linesmakers and public continue to overrate a team that can't even stay about .500. The Rangers are the better team here and have a huge edge in the starting pitcher matchup today. Take Texas tonight as the Rangers should get an easy win. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-06-12 | Seattle: J Vargas v. Baltimore: C Tillman -135 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #966 Baltimore Orioles over Seattle Mariners (7:05pm EST) The Baltimore Orioles host the Seattle Mariners in the first of a three-game set in Camden Yards. The Orioles come in riding a high after outlasting the Rays 1-0 in a 10 inning affair yesterday afternoon, making that five wins in their last seven games. Despite all of the doubters, the O's have stayed in the thick of things in the American League and are now at 57-51 on the season. Right-hander Chris Tillman will toe the rubber for Baltimore today and he's been a nice boost to the rotation in the place of the injured Jason Hammel. In his five starts, Tillman is 4-1 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Four of his starts were on the road as well, making it even more impressive. Tillman also already beat Seattle in his first start of the season where he almost went the distance. He pitched 8 2/3 innings in that contest without giving up an earned run and only allowing two hits and two walks.
The Mariners counter with left-hander Jason Vargas. The 29-year old is 12-7 with a 3.71 ERA on the season, but a closer look at his splits reveals an important fact. Vargas is a much better pitcher at home than he is on the road. At home, Vargas checks in with a cool 2.63 ERA and on the road he has a mediocre 4.67 ERA - one of the biggest differentials in the league. He's been that way for most of his career and a lot of that has to do with his pitching style and the fact that he pitches in Safeco Field at home. Baltimore is much more hitter-friendly and isn't as kind to extreme fly ball pitchers. Baltimore hits southpaws very well on top of it, so Vargas will have his work cut out for him today. The Orioles may not be quite as good as their record indicates, but this is a much better team than the Mariners with just about any pitching matchup except versus King Felix. Baltimore also has a stronger pen and much more pop in their lineup, so this line should be closer to -150. Take the O's at a good price. |
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08-05-12 | Texas Rangers v. Kansas City Royals +130 | 6-7 | Win | 130 | 3 h 9 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #926 Kansas City Royals over Texas Rangers (2:10pm EST) If you get the feeling that things are slipping away from the Texas Rangers, you're not just imagining things. The Rangers are 13-14 in their last 27 games and they really haven't clicked since the beginning of May. They now have two teams in the American League West hot on their trail and a host of concerns that have yet to be alleviated. Josh Hamilton has been the biggest issue lately as he has been awful at the plate after an unbelievable April and May. He hit just .223 in June and batted just .177 in July. He had 19 homers in April and May but had just nine in June and July. Hamilton might be the most talented player in the major leagues, but until he gets things straightened out he's more of a liability than an asset for the Rangers. Another big concern for the Rangers has been their starting rotation. They've endured tons of injuries to their staff, and today's starter Derek Holland was one of those casualties. Holland spent some time on the disabled list in June with shoulder fatigue. He has pitched five times since coming back but he still doesn't appear to be the same pitcher that he was last season when he was ripping up American League hitters. His velocity is down and the league may have caught up with him to a certain extent. Until Holland can demonstrate that he's 100% healthy, he'll be a nice target for the rest of the league.
The Royals clearly aren't going anywhere this season, but they do have a lot of young players with something to prove. Their lineup is very green but they are improving as time goes on. Some of the players in the lineup are fighting for jobs for next year, so they'll have an even bigger incentive to produce in the season's last two months. Today's starter Luke Hochevar probably has a spot in next year's rotation, but he definitely still has a lot to prove. The 28-year old right-hander is only 7-9 with a 5.22 ERA on the season. He was one of the most highly-touted pitchers coming out of Kansas City's system about five years ago, but he has never lived up to the big expectations. He has shown flashes of brilliance at times this season, but consistency is a huge problem for him. He's not the kind of pitcher you want to ever support in the favorite role, but I like him as an underdog at home because if he's on top of his game he will definitely outperform Holland and the Royals will likely get the victory. In fact, the Royals have won four of the last five games that Hochevar has been an underdog. He is probably more comfortable in that role as pressure is far less. With the Rangers sliding lately, I think it's worth taking a chance on the Royals at home today getting a good price. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-05-12 | Cleveland: C Seddon +195 v. Detroit: M Scherzer | 8-10 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 54 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #919 Cleveland Indians over Detroit Tigers (1:35pm EST) The Cleveland Indians send Chris Seddon to the mound today to make his first major league appearance since 2010. The 28 year-old left-hander has been impressive in the minor leagues and was recently called up to show the Indians what he can do. This will be Seddon's third call of duty in the majors as he first had a crack at it in 2007 with the Marlins and was quickly sent back down until he resurfaced in 2010 with the Mariners for a bit. The third time could be the charm for Seddon as he knows this could realistically be his last chance to earn a permanent spot with a big league club. He'll have an advantage today since he's left-handed, as the Tigers are one of the American League's worst hitting teams against southpaws. Detroit is hitting only .248 against lefties on the season and has only 27 home runs to go with it.
Max Scherzer takes the ball for the Tigers and he's about as inconsistent as they come. He comes in at 10-6 with a 4.62 ERA and 1.38 WHIP on the 2012 season. He has so much more talent than what his numbers indicate, but he's been unable to avoid the big inning in many of his starts and that has done him in. Until he can gain more confidence and pitch with consistency, he's someone to play against as a big favorite. This is just too big of a price for someone who has a 4.62 ERA, regardless of their stuff. The Indians hit right-handers much better than they do lefties and they've given Scherzer some trouble this year. In his two starts against the Tribe, the right-hander has a 5.56 ERA and a mediocre 10-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The Indians come into this game as losers of eight straight games, which has caused the price to get a bit inflated on this game. Losing streaks tend to get overrated in a sport like baseball and there is often value on the underdog until the streak is broken. I like Cleveland's chances to break through and get a victory today. |
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08-04-12 | New York Mets +127 v. San Diego Padres | 6-2 | Win | 127 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #963 New York Mets over San Diego Padres (8:35pm EST) The New York Mets take on the San Diego Padres in game two of their series tonight. This is a good matchup of an underrated starting pitcher versus and overrated one. Rookie Jeremy Hefner hasn't posted great numbers on the surface this season at 1-4 with a 5.52 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. However, his peripheral numbers are good and indicate that Hefner will have better results going forward. He has an excellent strikeout-to-walk ratio as he's striking out 6.1 batters per nine innings while only walking 1.8. He also has a great groundball ratio at 48.7%. He's gotten unlucky stranding only 62.7% of baserunners and allowing a .331 batting average on balls in play. Those numbers will regress towards the league averages and we'll see Hefner's ERA drop significantly in the process. Hefner is definitely an underrated commodity.
On the other side of the dugout is Edinson Volquez of the Padres. Volquez has always been known to have great stuff, but consistency has been a big issue. He allowed five earned runs in five innings in his last start just, which was two starts after throwing a complete game shutout. The right-hander doesn't have great control and that's been the main problem for him. He's walked at least three batters in 19 of his 22 starts this season and only has one 10-strikeout game. The Mets have a good lineup and they can be patient enough to take advantage of Volquez's control problems. Take New York as a decent sized underdog tonight. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-04-12 | Milwaukee Brewers v. St.Louis Cardinals -192 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #960 St. Louis Cardinals over Milwaukee Brewers (7:15pm EST) We have a complete mismatch today in St. Louis as the Cardinals host the Milwaukee Brewers. We usually don't venture out on favorites this big, but today's game has everything pointing towards a win and it's an opportunity that can't be passed up. Adam Wainwright is pitching about as well as any starting pitcher in the National League right now. Over his last five outings, the 30-year old right-hander has a 2.75 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is 32-5 and he finally appears to be 100% recovered from his Tommy John surgery last year. This is the Wainwright that we've seen the last few years but the betting markets are a little bit slow to catch on. The Cardinals are the best hitting team in the National League by a wide margin and now that they're fully healthy they're even more dangerous. The Cardinals actually have the best run differential in the major leagues at +102, so there is an argument that can be made that this is the best team in baseball.
The Brewers finally raised the white flag on 2012 when they traded away Zack Greinke at the deadline. It's been a frustrating season for Milwaukee as they were expected to be competitive. It turns out that the loss of Prince Fielder was much more devastating than originally thought. The once reliable bullpen has also been a huge shortcoming as Milwaukee is 14th in bullpen ERA and leads the league in blown saves. Rookie Mark Rogers will make his second career start tonight. He took Greinke's spot in the rotation and pitched well in this first outing against the Nationals. Rogers didn't put up very good numbers in the minors before he was called up however. He was just 6-6 with a 4.72 at Triple-A and was even worse the year before where he had an ERA near 7 in his minor league work. So it's a bit surprising that this was the Brewer's choice to fill the void, but since they're out of the race they are likely just giving the 26-year old a chance to show them what he's got. Going up against the best lineup in the league will be no easy task for the rookie, and I'd be shocked if he can make it past five innings. With the Brewer's bullpen woes that's not good news for Milwaukee fans. The Cardinals have won eight of their last nine home games and the Brewers have lost six straight on the road. We'll look for the trends to continue today with the huge mismatch across the board. |
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08-03-12 | Toronto: B Cecil v. Oakland: D Straily -145 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #930 Oakland A's over Toronto Blue Jays (10:05pm EST) The Oakland A's host the Toronto Blue Jays in game that features Daniel Straily's major league debut for Oakland. Straily was just called up from Triple-A Sacramento where he simply dominated. He went 5-2 with a 1.36 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in eight starts there after being promoted from Double-A. At Double-A Midland he had a 3.38 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. In both places he struck out 11.4 batters per nine innings and was the minor league strikeout leader when he was called up. He also has excellent control and only walks 2.4 batters per nine innings. Needless to say, this 23-year old has some great stuff and has a high ceiling. Oakland has waved the magic wand in regards to bringing along their young pitchers. This year alone they've developed Tom Milone, Jarrod Parker, A.J. Griffin and Travis Blackley into formidable major league starting pitchers. That's a great track record and should bode well for the fortunes of Straily, as the A's have deemed him to be ready for the show.
The Blue Jays' season is all but over as they sit in the cellar of the American League East with too many teams in front of them for the two wild card spots. If they were 100% healthy, they might have a shot, but without their original starting rotation and slugger Jose Bautista it's a lost cause. Injuries have forced today's starter Brett Cecil into the rotation, and he's been mediocre at best. The left-hander is 2-4 with a 5.56 ERA in eight starts and he's probably one bad start away from being demoted back to the minors. The Jays have dropped five straight and the mood isn't very good in Toronto. The A's, on the other hand, have won 20 of 26 and are vying for a wild card spot as baseball's hottest team right now. Straily should have a big edge against the Jays as no one has seen him before and I think he'll pitch well and get good support from one of the best bullpens in the league. Take Oakland as our American League Game. |
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08-02-12 | LA Anaheim: C Wilson +111 v. Texas: R Dempster | 9-15 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #963 Los Angeles Angels over Texas Rangers (8:05pm EST) The Los Angeles Angels and Texas Rangers hook up again as the teams finish up a four-game set in Arlington. The Angels let one get away last night in extra innings with a three-run lead as they lost 11-10. Despite the setback, the Angels have won two of the first three in the series and have outscored Texas 31-21 in the process. It's clear that the Angels are throwing down the gauntlet and demonstrating that they may be the best in the division. From a hitting standpoint, the basic numbers show Texas with a big advantage over Los Angeles, but on a park-adjusted basis these lineups are almost identical in production. The Rangers get a big boost by playing half of their contests in Arlington while the Angels' production is depressed in their pitcher-friendly venue. The Angels also do a lot of the little things that you don't see in the box score. They have one of the best managers in the game in Mike Scioscia, who always seems to push all of the right buttons to maximize the team's talent. The Angels have the best defensive numbers in the American League and they run the bases extremely well. They've also improved their bullpen numbers considerably after a disastrous first six weeks or so. All things considered, the Angels are the better team right now, and they have the better starting pitcher on the mound today.
C.J. Wilson comes in with a 2.88 ERA and 1.21 WHIP - numbers that are nearly identical to the marks he put up with the Rangers last season. He's coming off back-to-back quality starts and should relish another chance to go up against the team that decided to let him walk. He got knocked around the first time he faced his ex-team, but bounced back in his next two starts against them pitching 11 2/3 innings and allowing only two runs. He should be comfortable throwing in Arlington, where he spent the first seven years of his career. His opponent will be the newly-acquired Ryan Dempster. The 35-year old right-hander was traded for from the Cubs at the deadline and is a much-needed arm in the rotation. Dempster pitched very well with Chicago at 5-5 with 2.25 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, but you can't expect that type of production from him going forward. First off, he will be facing much tougher competition in a superior league and he will be pitching in one of the toughest ballparks for pitchers in the major leagues. The game time temperature will easily be over 100 degrees for this one and it's difficult for some pitchers to adjust to that kind of heat. It's safe to assume that Dempster will also have a few extra butterflies in his stomach for his first start in a new uniform in a very important series. The Angels have the better squad overall and I think Wilson's chances pitching in Arlington much more than Dempster's. Take Los Angeles as a slight underdog tonight. |
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08-01-12 | Cleveland Indians -103 v. Kansas City Royals | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #927 Cleveland Indians over Kansas City Royals (8:10pm EST) Cleveland Indians starting pitcher Zach McAllister is quietly putting together a very solid rookie campaign. The 24-year old right-hander is 4-2 with a 3.18 ERA and has the skill set to get even better. He's averaging 8.5 strikeouts per nine innings and only 2.3 walks. His fastball gets up to the mid-90's and he has good mound presence for a youngster. Today he'll face the Royals for the first time in his career - a definite leg up for the rookie. The Royals have also struggled at the plate for most of the season; ranking 13th in runs scored in the American League. They're clearly a team looking ahead to the future rather than in the present. In fact, the Royals are only 6-21 in their last 27 games overall.
The Royals starter today is right-hander Luis Mendoza. At 4-7 with a 4.47 ERA, the 28-year old is still trying to find his way in his first full season. He spent six years in the minor leagues combined with the Red Sox, Rangers and now the Royals organization. That's usually not a great sign for a big league pitcher as the most talented prospects are generally given a legitimate shot well before then. The biggest problem for Mendoza is his strikeout-to-walk ratio. He only strikes out 5.3 batters per nine innings while walking 3.9. That ratio will need to improve for him to stay up with big club. The Indians are an underrated offense that has endured quite a few injuries this season. They're also a patient team at the plate, evidenced by their number two ranking in walks in the league, so they can put pressure on opposing hurlers who struggle with their control. Neither one of today's teams is playoff bound, but the Indians look to be playing a lot harder and they have a definite advantage on the hill today. Take the Indians at a nice price today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-31-12 | LA Anaheim: J Weaver -101 v. Texas: D Holland | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #971 Los Angeles Angels over Texas Rangers (8:05pm EST) Division rivals go at it again as the Los Angeles Angels look to close the gap even further against the first place Texas Rangers. The Angels rocked the Rangers 15-8 last night in Arlington to pull within four games of first place in the American League West. It was a statement game for the Angels as they continue to put pressure on the struggling Rangers. Los Angeles ace Jered Weaver gets the ball in this one and he's been as good as it gets in the American League this year at 13-1 with a 2.26 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. On the other side is Derek Holland who has struggled this year at 7-5 with a 4.74 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Holland has fought through injuries for part of the season and his stuff hasn't been as sharp recently as a result.
There's no question that the Angels are the hotter team right now. On May 21st, the Angels were 18-25 in last place in the division while the Rangers were 26-17, eight full games ahead. Since then the Angels have went 38-22 while the Rangers are 33-25. The Angels have also won five of the last seven meetings between the teams and are 41-15 in Weaver's last 56 starts overall. This one should be a great game but I like the Angels' chances with the way they've been playing and the much better starting pitcher. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-30-12 | Arizona Diamondbacks +130 v. Los Angeles Dodgers | 7-2 | Win | 130 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #909 Arizona Diamondbacks over Los Angeles Dodgers (10:10pm EST) Another big showdown in the National League West begins tonight as the Arizona Diamondbacks head to Los Angeles to play the Dodgers. The D-backs are only 4.5 games behind the Dodgers in the division so this series is big for both teams. Arizona comes in as winners of seven of their last 10 games and has been a wrecking ball offensively. Over that span they've averaged 6.6 runs per game, all of which were at home. Obviously it's going to be a bit tougher in Los Angeles, but the D-backs will go with one of their most consistent starting pitchers in Trevor Cahill today. Cahill isn't flashy at 8-9 with a 3.86 ERA, but he always keeps his team in the game. In his 20 starts in 2012, he's allowed more than four earned runs only one time. That is an outstanding accomplishment considering the fact that Cahill throws in a hitter's ball park. The main reason that he's achieved good success this season is his amazing 59% groundball rate. That's among the league's best and is a huge asset for getting out of jams.
The Dodgers have also been playing well winning eight of their last 11. Their pitching has been the biggest key in their latest run as they've only allowed 3.7 runs per game in that stretch. Today's starter Aaron Harang has a solid ERA at 3.39 on the season, but there are indications he's due for regression. His walk rate has crept up to 3.9 per innings, the highest of his career, and he allowed seven walks over his last two outings. His groundball rate is at 39% this season, which can definitely be improved upon. He might be able to get away with that in Dodgers Stadium more so than most places, but the Diamondbacks can hit the long ball and should be able to take advantage of his fly ball tendencies. Arizona also has an edge in a lot of the commonly overlooked areas like the bullpen, defense and the bench. I like the price of this one as the D-backs aren't getting enough respect. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-29-12 | Chicago (A): G Floyd v. Texas: S Feldman -147 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #978 Texas Rangers over Chicago White Sox (7:05pm EST) The Texas Rangers host the Chicago White Sox as they try to salvage the three-game set in Arlington. The Rangers haven't been playing their best baseball lately but they get a favorable pitching matchup today. They'll be going up against right-hander Gavin Floyd who has been a mess lately on the mound and health wise. In his last start, Floyd gave up six walks in in six innings while only striking out one batter. He was lucky to only yield three runs and escape with a win. Before his last start, Floyd was on the disabled list with elbow tendinitis, which was clearly something that was bothering him previously as he had major control issues leading up to it. It doesn't look like he's 100% still, so a good Texas lineup should be patient enough to draw some walks and then make him pay for it. Arlington is a very tough place to pitch if you're not sharp on the hill. The Rangers are also a very good home team at 31-19 on the season.
Texas will send right-hander Scott Feldman out there tonight. He has been on a nice roll lately and in his last five outings is 4-0 with a 3.81 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Those numbers aren't earth-shattering but they look much better when you consider that three of those starts were in Texas. Feldman has also pitched well against the White Sox lately and has beaten them in four of his last five. The Rangers as a team have also been good in the final game of a series, grabbing eight of their last 10. With Floyd struggling with his control, I expect the Rangers to jump on him early and for the Rangers to take this one with ease. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-28-12 | Oakland: B Colon +103 v. Baltimore: T Hunter | Top | 6-1 | Win | 103 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #923 Oakland A's over Baltimore Orioles (7:05pm EST) Two right-handers go at it today in Baltimore as the Orioles host the Oakland A's. Veteran Bartolo Colon gets the ball for the surging A's today. Oakland comes at 17-3 in their last 20 games and has been a wrecking ball offensively. Over those 20 games, the A's are averaging 5.3 runs per game including 41 runs over their last four contests (10.3 per game). The current streak has propelled the A's into the second wild card spot in the American League and this young team is finally starting to believe that they might be able to pull off a miracle this season. Colon has been a reliable starter for the A's this season and always keeps the team in the game. He's 6-8 with a 3.97 ERA, but has only given up more than four runs twice in his 19 starts this season. He's also done a really good job of eating innings this season and giving the bullpen a little more rest when they need it.
Right-hander Tommy Hunter goes today for the O's. The 26-year old has been like a pinball for the last couple of seasons bouncing back and forth between the major leagues and minor league systems. He was recently called up due to injuries and has pitched decent in his first two starts. However, his stuff wasn't great as he only punched out a total of five batters in 14 1/3 innings against Cleveland and Minnesota. One of the reasons that he was sent down originally was his propensity for giving up the long ball. He's served up 22 home runs in his 15 starts this season and one each in his last two outings. Oakland hits well on the road and they've shown lately that they can take advantage of weak pitching. The Orioles, on the other hand, have struggled at the plate lately averaging only 3.6 runs per contest over their last 17. The A's have had a big upper hand in this series for the last several seasons going 64-26 in the last 90 meetings, including 36-17 the last 53 meetings in Baltimore. The A's are the hottest team in baseball right now and they still aren't getting enough respect to be the favorites against a struggling Baltimore team. Take Oakland as our 5-unit Game of the Day. |
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07-28-12 | St Louis: J Kelly v. Chicago (N): Samardzija +101 | 2-3 | Win | 101 | 2 h 52 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #902 Chicago Cubs over St. Louis Cardinals (3:05pm EST) The 2012 season is already over for the Chicago Cubs as they look ahead to the future with current trade proposals coming in by the day. However, they've still been performing well on the field lately and they always get up for a series against their arch rivals the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cubs are 16-11 in their last 27 games overall and have won eight of ten at home. At 54-46, the Cardinals are on the cusp of the playoffs but haven't been able to put it all together yet. They have tons of talent on their roster but they've been hit hard by injuries and their bullpen has been atrocious all year long. Their bullpen ERA is 4.10 on the season, which ranks 10th in the National League. That puts extra pressure on the starting pitchers, as manager Mike Matheny is pushing on them a bit more in lieu of his pen. Extra pressure isn't what rookie Joe Kelly needs as there have been some indications that the league is catching up with him a bit. In his last four starts, Kelly has an awful 15-13 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He's managed to keep a lot of runs off of the board, but eventually those walks will kill him.
Pitching for the Cubs today is the promising right-hander Jeff Samardzija. This been somewhat of a breakthrough year for the 27-year old. He made the transition from the bullpen to the starting rotation and it has been a success. Samardzija is 7-8 with a 4.25 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 2012. His strikeout numbers are excellent at 9.0 per nine innings. Over his last four outings he's shown some big improvement with a 1.67 ERA and 0.93 WHIP - and three of those starts were on the road. Despite a poor overall record, the Cubs have been a solid team at home this season. In 46 games, the Cubs are 24-22 in Wrigley Field this season. With the Cubs playing the way they are and Samardzija pitching the way that he is, I think the Cubs should be the favorite here today. As an underdog, there is value and that's why we're on Chicago here. |
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07-26-12 | Oakland A's -102 v. Toronto Blue Jays | 4-10 | Loss | -102 | 2 h 58 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #911 Oakland A's over Toronto Blue Jays (12:35pm EST) There's no question that the Oakland A's are the hottest team in baseball. As winners of 16 of 18, they not only are red hot but they are on the best run of any team this entire baseball season. They've done it with unbelievable pitching, both with the starters and in the bullpen, and with timely hitting and solid defense. At the moment, the A's are in the first wild card spot in the American League with about two months to go - a spot that was unimaginable not long ago when the team was 22-30 on June 1st. For the first time in years, the A's are looking to add pieces at the trade deadline and take a shot this season. And with expectations being low for this team coming in, the youngsters feel like they are playing with house money.
The Blue Jays, on the other hand, are clearly going in the opposite direction. Yesterday's game was a definite indication of that as the A's thrashed the Jays 16-0 in game that was over by the second inning. A quagmire of injuries to the starting rotation and another significant one to star hitter Jose Bautista has left the team with little hope at 48-49 currently. They're not too far back in the wild card standings (only four games), but there are a host of teams in front of them and realistically it will take a minor miracle to get into the race with all of the injury issues this team has. Today the Blue Jays go with one of their replacement starters Aaron Laffey. The 27-year old southpaw has filled in well but there's a reason that he hasn't been able to latch on anywhere in his seven-year career. He doesn't throw very hard with a fastball that averages around 87mph and he relies on deception more than anything else. Unless you have pinpoint control all of the time, it's tough to survive with that kind of skill set. Opposing Laffey will be Oakland's rookie Tommy Milone. The 25-year old phenom is 9-6 with a 3.34 ERA in his first full season and is making a bid for Rookie of the Year in the American League. Milone is another soft-tosser but he's seemed to have mastered it at a young age and has been on fire as of late. In his last six outings, Milone is 3-1 with a 1.10 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. And those starts included games against the Yankees, Rangers and Dodgers. Clearly this young man is making a name for himself and this will the Blue Jays' first look at him. That should give him an extra leg up in the matchups. The A's have been on a roll and it's surprising that they're underdogs again today. Jump on board and take advantage with Oakland in this one. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-24-12 | Atlanta Braves v. Miami Marlins +105 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #908 Miami Marlins over Atlanta Braves (7:10pm EST) A pair of veterans square off as the Miami Marlins host the Atlanta Braves tonight. The 33-year old Mark Buehrle takes the ball for the Marlins and he's been on a nice run of late. In his last five starts, Buehrle is 4-1 with a 1.87 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. He seems to be getting more comfortable with National League batters in each start and is making better adjustments against them than his opposition is. You can always count on Buehrle to keep you in the game, as he has only surrendered more than four earned runs on one occasion in 19 starts this year. He'll have a decent advantage today against a left-handed heavy Atlanta lineup as well.
On the other side is Tim Hudson. The right-hander is a bit older than Buehrle as 37-years old, and his age is definitely starting to show this season. Statistically he's having his worse season since 2006 and the peripheral numbers back it up. He's still respectable at 8-4 with a 3.70 ERA, but he's lost a ton of velocity on his fastball, especially in his last five starts. There could be a hidden injury for Hudson or he could be making some mechanical changes to compensate for losing some of his stuff. Either way, he's not the same Hudson that we've seen over the last decade or so. The Marlins made a big trade yesterday in unloading Anibal Sanchez and Omar Infante for prospects. It basically put up the white flag and signaled that the Marlins are now looking towards the future instead of the playoffs this year. At 45-51 it was smart move, and I think this deal will actually allow the Marlins to play without pressure for the first time all season. It's been a tough year with a new stadium and all of the expectations for the team due to the heavy spending in the offseason. I like the pitching matchup in this one and think a loose Miami team will come through with a win today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-23-12 | Minnesota Twins +116 v. Chicago White Sox | 4-7 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #971 Minnesota Twins over Chicago White Sox (8:10pm EST) Just when it looked like Francisco Liriano was regressing back to his old self, he comes back with two dominating performances. The Twins lost both of those games, but that puts them in a good situation today against the Chicago White Sox. Liriano put up an unbelievable 25-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio over those two starts and gave his team a great shot to win each game. Now that it appears as if Liriano is rolling again after a slight lull, he's definitely someone you look to back in an underdog role. The White Sox send Gavin Floyd to the bump tonight. This will be his first game back from the disabled list, where he spent a couple of weeks due to an elbow problem. There's no telling if he's feeling 100% and elbow issues can be tricky. As a result, the Twins may be catching a break in this one.
As a team, the Twins have been flying under the radar over the last few weeks. Their offense has averaged 5.1 runs per game over the last 20 games and they've been a very competitive team at 10-10 against a tough schedule. They're clearly a lot better than the last place team everyone thinks that they are, and I look for them to play hard for the rest of the season. The White Sox, on the other hand, hit a wall last and come into today's matchup losers of five straight games. Not only that, but they've finally relinquished their lead at the top of the American League Central to the Tigers after getting swept in Detroit. This is a tough matchup today for the Sox as they have some strong trends going against them. Liriano has won his last seven starts against the White Sox and has been a nemesis of theirs for his entire career. Additionally, Floyd has struggled mightily against the Twins and has dropped eight of his last nine against them. Given that Liriano is pitching great right now and Floyd is coming off the DL, combined with their respective history against the opponents, and this is a no-brainer play. Take the Twins as a nice underdog play. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-23-12 | Washington Nationals -130 v. New York Mets | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #957 Washington Nationals over New York Mets (7:10pm EST) The New York Mets host the Washington Nationals in a pitching rematch from last week in Washington D.C. Jordan Zimmermann and Chris Young will duel again after the Nats came out on top last time by a score of 4-3. Despite the close score, Zimmermann definitely had the upper hand as he pitched six scoreless innings while the bullpen let in three runs to make it interesting. Young gave up two runs in six innings of work but only managed to strikeout two batters. Since Young is a craftier pitcher that relies more on deception than Zimmermann does, I expect the Nationals to have a much easier time of it against the veteran this time out. Zimmermann relies more on blowing people away and I don't expect his style to be affected as much by pitching to the same lineup in consecutive starts.
Meanwhile, the Mets as a team have dropped under .500 for the first time this season. They've dropped nine of 10 games and their morale is also at a season low. They recently lost starter Dillon Gee for the season and Johan Santana was placed on the disabled list with shoulder fatigue and a sore ankle. In the last 10 days, the team has gone from one that was right in the thick of the playoff race to one that might now be selling at the trade deadline. The Nationals have held the top spot in the National League East for virtually the entire season and they seem to be getting stronger as they get healthier. The Nationals have won 10 of the last 13 meetings against the Mets including six of seven in Citi Field. The line on this game seems much to low, so take Washington here. |
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07-22-12 | Colorado: C Friedrch -105 v. San Diego: R Ohlendrf | 2-3 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #913 Colorado Rockies over San Diego Padres (4:05pm EST) The Colorado Rockies and San Diego Padres square off in the rubber game of the series this afternoon in Petco Park. The Rockies won last night's game 8-6 in 12 innings - a game that saw 13 pitchers utilized between both squads. As a result, the starting pitchers will likely be asked to go a little deeper than usual today to give the bullpen a breather. Left-handed rookie Christian Friedrich will be one of those pitchers on the hill. Friedrich has pitched a lot better than his numbers indicate this season considering that he pitches in Coors Field half of the time. If you just focus on his road starts, the 25-year old has a 3.79 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. That's a far cry from his deceptive overall numbers which have him with a 5.85 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. He's a fly ball pitcher so it makes sense that he's much more comfortable away from the thin air of Colorado. San Diego's Petco Park is actually the perfect type of ballpark for Friedrich's pitching style and he proved it in his major league debut. On May 9th, he made his first career start in San Diego and pitched six innings while allowing only one run in a Rockies victory. Today he'll get a chance to relive that memory and try to repeat that success.
Ross Ohlendorf wasn't supposed to be in the Padre's rotation this season. In fact, he wasn't supposed to be a part of anyone's rotation. But with several injuries and some struggling arms, Ohlendorf was acquired from the Red Sox and placed into the rotation at the big league level eventually. Despite a 3-0 record thus far, the 29-year old journeyman hasn't been particularly good. In seven appearances, Ohlendorf has posted a 5.87 ERA despite the fact that three of his games were in Petco. He's also a fly ball pitcher, an extreme one, and he will be aided by a friendlier park in San Diego. However, his stuff isn't nearly as good as the kid Friedrich, and I question whether Ohlendorf can make it to the 7th inning to protect a wary bullpen today. The Padres probably won't be able to support him much offensively given their struggles against southpaws. In fact, the Padres are only 19-41 in their last 60 games against left-handers. The price on this game is a pick and I just don't see how Colorado isn't a favorite in the -120 price range. Take the Rockies with a nice chunk of value here today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-22-12 | Atlanta Braves v. Washington Nationals -130 | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 4 h 32 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #908 Washington Nationals over Atlanta Braves (1:35pm EST) Today is the finale of a crazy weekend series between the Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves. On Friday, Atlanta erased a 9-0 deficit to win 11-10 in 11 innings. Yesterday, the teams split a doubleheader as each team received stellar pitching performances from starting pitchers that no one expected much from. With Washington holding a tenuous 2.5 game lead in the National League East over the Braves, this game is big as both teams go on the road to take on more division rivals in their next series. Jair Jurrjens will make his tenth start of the season today. The right-hander has been knocked around pretty well all season long. He comes into today's contest at 3-3 with a 6.20 ERA and is fresh off of his worst outing of the season last time out. He gave up eight runs in 3 1/3 innings against the Giants while only striking out one batter. It's still not certain whether or not Jurrjens is completely healthy, but his stuff definitely isn't as sharp as usual. If Jurrjens struggles again today, he could be headed back to the minors in favor of one of Atlanta's younger replacements.
The Nationals will look to get a win behind Ross Detwiler today. The 26-year old left-hander continues to go largely unnoticed despite putting up a 3.00 ERA last season and a 3.15 ERA in this season. He throws into the mid-90's and has seen his velocity increase throughout the 2012 campaign - always a good sign for any pitcher. In this last start, Detwiler devastated the New York Mets as he pitched seven scoreless innings while striking out four and walking none. The Braves have quite a few left-handed bats in their regular lineup, so that should make things even easier for Detwiler today. The Nats have also won five of Detwiler's last six home starts, and he's been great against the Braves throughout his career. The Nationals are the better team and have the superior starting pitcher on the mound so they should pick up the W here. |
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07-22-12 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. New York Mets -152 | 8-3 | Loss | -152 | 3 h 7 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #904 New York Mets over Los Angeles Dodgers (1:10pm EST) The New York Mets try to avoid the sweep today in Citi Field against the Los Angeles Dodgers. It hasn't been pleasant for the Mets lately as they've dropped eight of nine falling all the way back to .500 on the season. They'll have a good chance to bounce back this afternoon, however, as they have a big edge in the starting pitching matchup. The underrated Jon Niese gets the ball for New York and he's putting up the best numbers of his career. The tall left-hander is 7-4 with a 3.58 ERA and is striking out 8.1 batters per nine innings. There was speculation earlier in the season that Niese could be traded away, but he's impressed the Mets enough to keep him and be a mainstay in the rotation for years to come. He'll go up against rookie right-hander Nathan Eovaldi. The 22-year old has struggled in his first full season at 1-6 with a 4.33 ERA. His strikeout-to-walk ratio of 4.7-3.3 is also very weak and he'll need to improve significantly to stay in the big leagues for the rest of the season. The Dodgers are in the midst of a tight division race and they'll need far better production, especially given that half of their games are played in a pitcher-friendly park. The Dodgers are just 1-8 in Eovaldi's nine starts this season. This is a big game for the Mets mentally, as they try to avoid falling below the .500 mark for the first time all season. They matchup better against a right-hander than the Dodgers do against a southpaw, and I like the Mets to pull this one out.
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07-21-12 | Colorado Rockies -102 v. San Diego Padres | Top | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
We don't have the sexiest of matchups today in San Diego, but that doesn't mean there isn't value to be found. The Colorado Rockies take on the Padres in a game that features a couple of subpar starting pitchers. The Rockies send left-hander Jeff Francis to the mound. Francis is only 2-2 with a 4.76 ERA in his eight starts on the season. Opposing pitcher Kip Wells is 1-3 with a 2.82 ERA in his four starts in 2012. On the surface, it appears that Wells is having the better year, but that would be an inaccurate assumption. Wells has simply been luckier than Francis so far and pitches in a much friendlier environment. Francis comes in with a 1.41 WHIP while Wells checks in at an astronomical 1.61. That will eventually catch up with him as he's putting way too many guys on base. Wells also made half of his starts in pitcher-friendly Petco Park, one of easiest places to pitch in all of baseball, while Francis' home park is the dangerous Coors Field. Adjusting for these factors, you can easily identify Francis as the superior pitcher right now and should put out a better effort in this matchup.
In addition, the Padres have a very difficult time against southpaws and Francis throws from the left side. They carry a .628 OPS against lefties, which places them 15th in the National League. Going back to last season, the Padres are also only 18-41 in their last 59 games versus left-handed starters. The Rockies haven't proven to be a great hitting team on the road, but they have won six of Francis' last seven starts. Colorado has also won 13 of the last 19 contests in San Diego, so they should be comfortable in this one. The numbers point to the Rockies in this one and I think they get the job done tonight. |
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07-20-12 | Minnesota Twins +137 v. Kansas City Royals | 2-1 | Win | 137 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #925 Minnesota Twins over Kansas City Royals (8:10pm EST) We have an interesting pitching matchup today in Kansas City as the Royals host the Minnesota Twins. The recently recalled Nick Blackburn for the Twins will face the inconsistent Luke Hochevar of the Royals. Blackburn has had a rocky season at 4-5 with a whopping 8.10 ERA. He was sent down to the minor leagues to work out some kinks in his mechanics and this will be his first start back from a brief hiatus. Blackburn pitched great in his two minor league starts, allowing only one earned run in 15 innings and walking just a single batter. This is probably his last chance to stay in the rotation for Minnesota, so I think Blackburn will bear down here and continue his dominance in his last two starts in Triple-A.
Hochevar has to be one of the most frustrating starting pitchers in the major leagues. At times he looks like a Cy Young hurler on the mound with his heavy fastball and eye-popping stuff. Other times you scratch your head and wonder how this 28 year-old even made it up to the big leagues in the first place. He can literally throw a complete game shutout or get bounced before the end of the third inning - both of which have happened this season. With so much volatility in his results, it's almost impossible to back Hochevar as a favorite and lay the juice. He's better left alone until he shows up as a big underdog and surprises someone. The Royals have also been a miserable home team in 2012 with a record of only 16-28, the worst such mark in baseball. The Twins have been a better team on the road than they have at home, so I don't think you can give the Royals much of a home field advantage tonight. I have a feeling that this game is going to be a crazy one, and in that case I always like to side with the underdog. Take the Twins in this matchup. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-20-12 | Milwaukee Brewers +110 v. Cincinnati Reds | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #907 Milwaukee Brewers over Cincinnati Reds (6:10pm EST) A new weekend series kicks off between the Milwaukee Brewers and Cincinnati Reds tonight. This is a big series for the Brewers as they look for a way to climb back into the race in the National League Central. They are currently 7.5 games back of the Reds, so this series could go a long way in determining if Milwaukee is a buyer or a seller at the trade deadline. It's Marco Estrada's turn in the rotation today and he's been a pleasure to watch on the mound lately. In his last four outings, the right-hander has a 3.48 ERA but more impressively has posted a 32-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He's deserved a better fate with those numbers, but it's clear that Estrada has some nasty stuff and it's baffling National League hitters. The Reds struggle against right-handed pitching, and that will be exacerbated even more today as Cincinnati plays without Joey Votto. I expect to see lots of strikeouts in this one.
Cincinnati is going to need to put some runs on the board today as Homer Bailey will be their starting pitcher. If you look up the word mediocre in the dictionary, there is a picture of Bailey next to it. He has decent stuff, but not overwhelming. He's 8-6 with a 3.93 ERA and 1.31 WHIP and this is his BEST season of his career so far! Bailey is good enough to keep his job, but not good enough to dominate or even impress anyone. Milwaukee's lineup has hit the right-hander pretty well over his career and there's no reason to believe that will change today. The Reds have dropped four of the last five games in which Bailey has been a favorite at home as it doesn't seem to be a spot that he's comfortable with. The Brewers have been playing solid baseball of late and this series might be their last chance to make a run of it. The pitching matchup clearly favors the Brewers here and I look for them to find a way to wave the victory flag tonight. |
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07-20-12 | Baltimore: M Gonzalez v. Cleveland: D Lowe -127 | 10-2 | Loss | -127 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #918 Cleveland Indians over Baltimore Orioles (7:05pm EST) The Cleveland Indians host the Baltimore Orioles in the first of three tonight in Progressive Field. Both of these teams have exceeded expectations this season, and now that we are nearly 100 games in, they are both starting to believe that they have a realistic crack at making the playoffs. The Indians don't excel at any one area, but they've been gritty enough to make the plays when they've needed to. Today's starting pitcher is the ultimate in grittiness, and that's Derek Lowe. The 39-year old veteran is doing what he does best for the Tribe this season, and that is giving his team a chance to win. He's 8-7 with a 4.43 ERA, while only striking out 3.3 batters per nine innings. Not many pitchers can get away with a strikeout rate that low, but when you induce groundballs 62% of the time, you can survive. Lowe is a crafty pitcher that will surely give a free-swinging Baltimore lineup some trouble. The Orioles lead the American League in strikeouts as they take hacks at anything that looks reasonably close, which plays right into the hands of Lowe.
The Orioles will try to hold down the Indians with rookie right-hander Miguel Gonzalez. This will only be his third start of his career and it's always tough for a rookie away from home. The Indians have ripped right-handed pitching all season long with their lefty-heavy lineup, so it's going to be even tougher for Gonzalez in this one. He may not get much support on the offensive side as the O's have struggled to put runs on the board lately. Over their last 10 games, Baltimore has averaged only 3.0 runs per ball game and has been shut out three times. The Orioles have also dropped the opening game of their last six series while the Indians are 22-6 in the first game of their last 28 series. That comes down to some good scouting and the Indians are definitely on top of it. I like Lowe in this spot today at home, especially against a rookie making only the third start of his career. Take the Indians as a reasonably-priced home favorite tonight. |
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07-19-12 | Miami Marlins -116 v. Chicago Cubs | 2-4 | Loss | -116 | 3 h 20 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #957 Miami Marlins over Chicago Cubs (2:20pm EST) The Miami Marlins come in at 44-47 against the 37-53 Chicago Cubs. It's been a disappointing season for both teams to say the least. But looking ahead, the Marlins are still focused on grabbing one of the two wild cards with a strong run in the last couple of months of the season. The Cubs are more worried about who's going to be left on their team in a couple of weeks after the trade deadline. However, these teams do still have a lot in common. Neither team has done much offensively this season with the Marlins checking in at 13th in the league in runs scored and the Cubs at second to last in 15th. Both teams have also experienced some absolute implosions in late innings and comprise two of the worst pens in the league.
As a result, I think the biggest difference in this game will be the starting pitchers. The Marlins go with veteran Mark Buehrle, who has had a very solid season in his first season in Miami at 9-8 with a 3.13 ERA. He seems to be getting more comfortable as the season goes along and has thrown four consecutive gems leading into today's matchup. In those four outings, Buehrle is 4-0 with a 0.94 ERA and a 29-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio - pretty impressive. He'll be opposed by fellow left-hander Paul Maholm. The 30-year old is 7-6 with a 4.33 ERA in 17 starts this season. The Marlins have hit lefties pretty well so far in 2012 while the Cubs are one of the worst against southpaws. Big advantage to the Marlins in that respect, and Miami has won five straight games against left-handers. The rubber game of this series is much bigger for the Marlins than it is for the Cubs, and I think Miami gets the job done with Buehrle on the hill. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-18-12 | St.Louis Cardinals -140 v. Milwaukee Brewers | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -140 | 4 h 42 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #901 St. Louis Cardinals over Milwaukee Brewers (2:10pm EST) The St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers square off in the rubber game of their three-game set tonight in Miller Park. St. Louis finally is close to 100% healthy after struggling with injuries for the entire season. It's been a bit under the radar, but the Cardinals put more players on the disabled list in the first half than any other team in the National League. Maybe it's because they have decent depth and were able to plug in respectable replacements, but there's no question that this team is now better than its 47-44 record. Today they go with Adam Wainwright on the mound. The 30-year old right-hander is only 7-9 with a 4.62 ERA on the season, but he too can't be judged only by his statistics at this point. Wainwright came back from Tommy John surgery at the beginning of the season and it took him awhile to get comfortable again. In his recent outings, he's been pitching more like the Wainwright that everyone is accustomed to. Over his last six starts, he has a 3.99 ERA with a 37-10 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His confidence is back and I expect him to have a big second half as the Cardinals look to make a strong run at the National League Central title.
The Milwaukee Brewers seem to be having a tough time deciding if they should give up on the season and start trading away some of their assets to build for the future. At 43-47 they still have an outside chance of possibly getting back in the mix, but it would take a minor miracle. There have been a plethora of rumors surrounding the availability of Zack Greinke and a couple of other Brewer players, but nothing has come to fruition yet. Milwaukee rookie Tyler Thornburg will make only his second career start this afternoon. Thornburg has a smallish stature but throws a low-to-mid-90s fastball and a potentially-plus changeup. His curveball is inconsistent but his arm slot is too high to give him the option of switching to a slider. The right-hander's command and control both need work at this point. He doesn't seem like he's quite ready for the big leagues and I think a powerful St. Louis lineup is going to be a bit too much to handle in this one. Milwaukee also has some big issues in their bullpen right now and there's a good chance that will rear its ugly head today with a rookie making the start. Take the Cardinals in a game that could easily get out of hand in our favor. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-17-12 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Colorado Rockies -116 | 6-2 | Loss | -116 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #962 Colorado Rockies over Pittsburgh Pirates (8:40pm EST) The Colorado Rockies host the Pittsburgh Pirates in the second game of their three-game set tonight. Both teams are among the surprise stories of 2012 for different reasons. The Pirates are only one game out of first place in the National League Central at 49-40. They have aspirations of making it to the playoffs for the first time in 20 years, but there's still a long way to go. Pittsburgh's bullpen ERA is one of the best in the majors at 2.74, and it's not fair to expect them to keep it that low with a bunch of unproven arms. The Pirates also struggle to score runs and are 9th in the league despite MVP-type numbers from Andrew McCutcheon. Again, the Pirates can't expect their stud centerfielder to replicate his production in the second half when he's batting .372 with 21 home runs and 64 RBIs right now. They'll need others to step up, but no one emerged as that person just yet. Today they send struggling starter Erik Bedard to the mound. Bedard is 4-10 with a 4.80 ERA on the season, but that doesn't even tell the whole story. Since running into some injury issues in early May, the left-hander has been a complete train wreck with a 6+ ERA. The Pirates continue to send him out there because they don't have any other viable options, but I'd be surprised if he keeps his job for the rest of the season unless he completely turns things around.
Colorado has been a surprise this year because no one thought it could get this ugly for them. At 35-54, the Rockies are dead last in the National League West. They are without star shortstop Troy Tulowitzki and first basemen Todd Helton, and the season is essentially lost. However, it's the teams that look dead that often provide the value to bettors later in the season. There haven't been too many bright spots for Colorado, but they have some young talent that they will try to develop in the second half. One of those players is today's starting pitcher Christian Friedrich. The 25-year old rookie left-hander has displayed some good stuff in his 13 starts this season. He's only 5-6 with a 5.60 ERA, but his strikeout rate is impressive at 8.8 and he's shown pretty good control for his age. Remember that he pitches in Colorado, which inflates his numbers. Friedrich has a respectable 3.79 ERA away from Coors. The Pirates have been one of the worst road teams in all of baseball over the last several seasons, while the Rockies have been one of the best home teams. Correspondingly, Pittsburgh is only 5-11 in their last 16 games in Colorado. The Rockies have the much better starting pitcher going today, the better offense and a big home field advantage. They are the right side with the price is low as it is. |
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