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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-31-14 | Los Angeles Angels +115 v. Oakland A's | Top | 3-11 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #971 Los Angeles Angels over Oakland A's (10:05pm EST) I love what I've seen so far from the Angels and A's this season. Based on my ratings, these are the two best teams in the AL and I expect it to be a dogfight to the win the AL West between these two. Today's matchup features one of the pitchers I have enjoyed backing frequently this season against a pitcher that wasn't supposed to be in the rotation in 2014. Tyler Skaggs is the former and he's been a huge boon to an Angel's rotation that sorely needed some quality innings after a disaster last year. Skaggs was acquired in the offseason in a trade for Mark Trumbo and it's paid off. Skaggs enters today's game 4-2 with a 3.97 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 10 starts. His peripheral numbers say he should be even a little bit better than that, and I agree. He should continue to get better as he gets comfortable in the AL. On the other side is Oakland starter Tommy Milone. The A's were perfectly happy with Milone coming out of the bullpen this season as they found better options. But injuries forced Milone back into his customary starting role, and the results have been mediocre at best. While he carries an ERA in the mid-3's, Milone has put up some weak peripherals thus far with a 4.79 xFIP. He gives up a ton of fly balls, which is generally ok at home. But that will cost him on occasion, and don't be surprised if the Angels make him pay a couple of times today. All in all, the line is probably close to accurate. However, I really like the pitching matchup here for the Angels and think they find a way to get the job done. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-31-14 | Baltimore Orioles v. Houston Astros -125 | 4-1 | Loss | -125 | 5 h 51 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #968 Houston Astros over Baltimore Orioles (4:10pm EST) It's a little early to be talking Cy Young, but if you take a look at the AL candidates based on the first third of the season, Dallas Keuchel has to be near the top of the list. The 26-year old southpaw is 6-2 with a 2.55 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in his first 10 starts. He has the best groundball rate in the majors by a wide margin, and Keuchel has cut his walk rate in half from last season. He performs like a surgeon on the mound and has a great career ahead of him. Keuchel is one of the more shocking surprises of 2014, and the Astros as a team are starting to make some waves as well. Houston has won seven straight games and is 13-6 over their last 19 contests. Outfielder George Springer has been a huge lift to a once poor Astros offense, as he has the inside track on AL Rookie of the Year. There's more help on the way, so I expect this Astros team to continue getting better as the season wears on. The Orioles have lost four straight and I don't like their approach at the plate whatsoever. They are dead last in the AL in walks and the word has gotten around the league. With too many hackers and not enough on-base guys, this O's team is going to struggle against pitchers with superb control like Keuchel. This is the biggest the Astros have been favored all season long, but it's warranted and should be even higher. Take Houston at home today. |
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05-30-14 | Detroit Tigers v. Seattle Mariners -113 | 6-3 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #924 Seattle Mariners over Detroit Tigers (10:10pm EST) If you've watched any of Just Verlander's recent starts, this selection won't surprise you. Something is seriously wrong with the former AL Cy Young and MVP. In his last three starts, Verlander has a 8.31 ERA and 2.13 WHIP with a 7-9 K/BB ratio. That's about as bad as it gets for a starting pitcher, as Verlander surely is dealing with an injury or has run into some problems with his mechanics. Verlander started to decline a bit last season, but nothing to the extent of this. I'm guessing we'll see a much better effort from him today, but it won't be enough to keep pace with Hisashi Iwakuma of the Seattle Mariners. Iwakuma has quietly established himself as one of the best pitchers in the game. He has a career 2.80 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 383 innings of work over three seasons. He has excellent control and keeps the ball down in the zone to most hitters. The Tigers aren't as good against right-handers, so Iwakuma should be successful once again today. If this game gets to a point where the bullpens decide it, I give Seattle the nod as they have more reliable arms. Nathan has struggled as Tigers closer and could lose his job if things get worse. This line is cheap as the market still believes in Verlander. I certainly don't, so we'll take the Mariners at home. |
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05-30-14 | San Diego Padres -115 v. Chicago White Sox | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #929 San Diego Padres over Chicago White Sox (8:10pm EST)Â |
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05-30-14 | Colorado Rockies v. Cleveland Indians -145 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
5-unit Play Take #928 Cleveland Indians over Colorado Rockies (7:05pm EST) Corey Kluber enters tonight's matchup versus the Rockies as one of the hottest pitchers in all of baseball. In his last five starts, the right-hander is 3-0 with a 2.02 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. His K/ BB ratio over that stretch is a stellar 48-7. Kluber had a breakthrough season in 2013, and he's taken another step forward so far this season. I see an All-Star appearance in Kluber's future as he's been one of the most dominant pitchers in the league. He'll face a Rockies lineup that is a little banged up right now. They are missing Nolan Arenado with a finger injury and Carlos Gonzalez is questionable today with a calf injury. Colorado has struggled to produce away from Coors Field and Kluber isn't the kind of guy you want to face on the road. The Rockies send Juan Nicasio to the bump and he's been a decent option in the rotation for the last couple of seasons. He isn't flashy and won't dominate a game, but he usually keeps his team in it. Unfortunately today the Rockies need someone to dominate as they don't figure to do much offensively. The Indians are the right side here for our Game. |
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05-29-14 | San Francisco Giants v. St. Louis Cardinals -127 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -127 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #954 St. Louis Cardinals over San Francisco Giants (8:15pm EST) Thursday's game between the St. Louis Cardinals and San Francisco Giants is more about what is going to happen rather than what has happened. San Francisco starter Ryan Vogelsong has put together a very nice season at 3-2 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. By all accounts, he's throwing some of the best baseball of his career. But at the age of 36, I'm not sure we can buy into Vogelsong all of a sudden becoming a top level starter. His career ERA is 4.43 and last season he checked in at 5.73. He hasn't added any new pitches and unless he has discovered the fountain of youth, we should expect regression from Vogelsong. On the other hand, is Jaime Garcia of the Cardinals. Garcia has spent more time on the disabled list than the baseball diamond over the last couple of years. But when he's been healthy, Garcia has been legit. He has a 3.46 career ERA and is only 27-years old, where he should be entering his prime. As a result, I think Garcia is a big undervalued in the betting marketplace. St. Louis as a team may be a bit undervalued as a team as they haven't gotten off to the kind of start that was expected. However, they are still 29-23 and on pace for 90+ wins. The Giants, meanwhile, are 33-19 and are playing a bit above their heads. The market may be giving them a little too much credit for a hot start. The value lies with St. Louis today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-28-14 | Cleveland Indians -102 v. Chicago White Sox | 2-3 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #917 Cleveland Indians over Chicago White Sox (8:10pm EST) Tonight's Indians and White Sox game is going to be an interesting one. Neither starting pitcher can be trusted, so this game is probably going to come down to the respective offenses and bullpens. T.J. House is a rookie making just his second major league start after spending five years in the minor leagues. Hector Noesi has bounced around quite a bit recently, already pitching for three different teams in 2014. I'd be surprised if either guy lasts past the fifth inning based on their respective track records. Comparing the offenses, the White Sox have definitely produced better results so far this season. But that doesn't mean that will continue. One of the jobs of a handicapper is to evaluate what has happened and project whether or not it will continue or if it's more of a mirage. In the case of Chicago's offense, I don't see them sustaining their success. They are 2nd in the AL in runs scored and several guys are putting up numbers that far exceed their career marks. They're also without slugger Jose Abreu right now, who was probably the early season AL MVP before he went on the disabled list with an ankle injury. The White Sox were dead last in the AL in runs last season, behind even the lowly Astros. This year's edition is somewhere in the middle, but probably a bit below average. The Indians were near the top of the AL offensively last season, and this year they are right there again. Their balanced lineup and patient approach breeds success and always puts pressure on the opposing starter. The Tribe has one of the better bullpens in baseball this season with a 3.04 ERA through their first 51 games. They've had some issues closing down games in the ninth, but overall this has been a reliable bunch. The same can't be said for the Sox, who have a 3.98 ERA with lots of unproven arms. Putting it all together, this Indians should be the clear favorite here so we see plenty of value with the road team. |
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05-27-14 | Houston Astros +120 v. Kansas City Royals | 3-0 | Win | 120 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #967 Houston Astros over Kansas City Royals (8:10pm EST) The Houston Astros have the worst record in baseball at 20-32, but this team is improving. I'd be surprised if this team ends up with over 100 losses this year, as the young guys are finally starting to make an impact on this team. One of those guys is 24-year old George Springer. The five-tool outfielder has been very impressive since being called up and he has future MVP written all over him. He went 4-4 with five runs scored in yesterday's 9-2 win over the Royals as the light bulb has certainly turned on for him. The top of the Astros lineup is actually not too bad, and once they start adding some decent role players to this team, they will be competitive. I like them again today as they have the better starting pitcher on the mound versus Kansas City. I'll take the up-and-coming Collin McHugh over the overrated veteran Jeremy Guthrie any day of the week, and it's not particularly close. McHugh has tremendous stuff evidenced by his 9.7 strikeouts per nine innings. He'll face a weak Royals lineup that is tied for last with the Astros in runs scored. So with the offenses nearly the same and a big edge for Houston in the starting pitching department, we'll take the Astros at a plus price here. |
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05-27-14 | Pittsburgh Pirates +103 v. New York Mets | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 60 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #955 Pittsburgh Pirates over New York Mets (7:10pm EST) There's a good chance we'll be betting the Pittsburgh Pirates quite often in the coming weeks. They just got a huge shot in the arm with the return of Russell Martin and Jason Grilli. This is a completely different team with those two healthy, and the Pirates are starting to play some good baseball. The Buccos have won five of six and are working their way back to .500 on the season. I don't like this Mets team much, as they have big problems offensively and in the bullpen. Jose Valverde was just released and the Mets are still searching for viable options at the back end of their pen. The pitching matchup today is close to a draw, so we'll gladly take Pittsburgh at the plus price. |
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05-27-14 | Boston Red Sox v. Atlanta Braves +100 | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #976 Atlanta Braves over Boston Red Sox (7:10pm EST) I'll be the first admit that I didn't believe in Aaron Harang back in April when he had one of the best ERAs in baseball. But you have to constantly re-evaluate in this business, and he's certainly proved to be a valuable commodity for the Atlanta Braves. Harang enters today's game with a 3.32 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, but he's been even better of late. In his last four outings he has a wonderful 27-4 K/BB ratio and two of those games were against the Cardinals. The Braves offense hasn't produced like it should this season, but there is one area where it has excelled - when it faces left-handed pitching. The Braves been crushing southpaws in 2014 and today they find one in Red Sox starter Jon Lester. He's not the easiest guy to hit, but Lester hasn't been as sharp lately and he's coming off of his worst performance of the season. He gave up seven earned runs to Toronto in 6.1 innings last time out. Boston has lost 10 of 11 and is still trying to find it's rhythm after winning the World Series last year. They'll find it eventually with all of the talent on their roster, but right now we have to look to play against them. Today is as good of an opportunity as any. We'll back Harang and the Braves at home with an even price. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-26-14 | Los Angeles Angels -136 v. Seattle Mariners | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -136 | 4 h 52 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #919 Los Angeles Angels over Seattle Mariners (4:10pm EST) We've been going against Chris Young of the Mariners as much as we can, even though it's had mixed results so far. There's no question he is much worse than his 3.53 ERA indicates, and I doubt he will last the whole season in the Seattle rotation. I like the Angels to rough him up early and often in what should be a route today. |
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05-26-14 | Baltimore Orioles v. Milwaukee Brewers -139 | 7-6 | Loss | -139 | 2 h 54 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #928 Milwaukee Brewers over Baltimore Orioles (2:10pm EST) The Baltimore Orioles travel to Milwaukee to take on the Brewers in interleague play. The O's have had a decent start to the 2014 campaign, but this is going to be a tough series for a couple of reasons. First off, they are going to be without Chris Davis for the next couple of days as he was placed on the paternity list. They are also without their stud catcher Matt Wieters, who was placed on the disabled list recently. Their offense has been struggling all season, and now things are going to get even tougher. To make matters worse, today's starter Chris Tillman admitted that he's having problems locating his pitches. It's rather obvious that his control has been off lately, but it's rare to hear a pitcher actually admit it, so that's definitely a red flag. The Brewers are still leading the NL Central and after winning a series against the Marlins this weekend to finish a 10-game road trip. They were a little shaky overall during the trip going just 4-6, but they're back home now. Kyle Lohse toes the rubber and he's been rock solid for the Brew Crew. The veteran right-hander is 6-1 with a 2.67 ERA and 1.05 WHIP and has improved his strikeout rate dramatically. I'm not sure Lohse can keep this up for an entire season, but right now he is clearly locked in. Going up against an inferior lineup that hasn't seen him much, I think Lohse can shut them down. Take Milwaukee. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-26-14 | Pittsburgh Pirates -108 v. New York Mets | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 1 h 50 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #901 Pittsburgh Pirates over New York Mets (1:10pm EST) The Pittsburgh Pirates haven't had the same magic as last year's team so far, but they are starting to turn the corner. They won 10 of their last 17, but more importantly they just got back to important pieces. Russell Martin and Jason Grilli had missed a big chunk of the season with injuries, but they both came back over the weekend. Both players were instrumental in the team's 94-win season last year, so I expect the Pirates to have a get a little bit of their swagger back now. They'll face a Mets team that just played a doubleheader yesterday and are now turning around to play a matinee game today. That's a big advantage for the Pirates as the Mets probably won't have full access to their bullpen in this one. Neither of today's starting pitchers has much of a track record and from reading the scouting reports, neither is likely to dominate major league competition. The bullpens will likely see a decent amount of work today, and if that's the case I love Pittsburgh's chances. Take the Pirates over the Mets. |
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05-25-14 | Los Angeles Dodgers -105 v. Philadelphia Phillies | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 3 h 40 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #955 Los Angeles Dodgers (-110) over Philadelphia Phillies (1:35pm EST) Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-25-14 | Arizona Diamondbacks -108 v. New York Mets | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 2 h 17 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #953 Arizona Diamondbacks over New York Mets (1:10pm EST) I'm not a big fan of Bronson Arroyo, but it's hard to appreciate his career and what he's still doing at the age of 37. He got off to a slow start in 2014 due to an injury issue, but his last five starts have been solid. During that stretch, Arroyo is 3-1 with a 1.96 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. He's just a great competitor and gives you everything he has every time out. Today he gets a weak New York Mets lineup that is 14th in the NL in OPS. While everyone is excited about the Mets young pitch, the same can't be said of the lineup. There's just nobody worthwhile playing every day except for David Wright. Rafael Montero is the one of the young pitchers the team is excited about and he pitches today. The league hasn't been kind to the young right-hander so far, as Montero is 0-2 with a 6.97 ERA in his first two major league starts. His control has been an issue in the minor leagues and that has carried over so far as he has walked six batters in those first two starts. The Diamondbacks don't have a great lineup, but there are quite a few veterans and they'll wait for a free pass if Montero is going to give it to them. We'll go with the cagey veteran over the rookie in this one. Take Arizona. |
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05-24-14 | Boston Red Sox v. Tampa Bay Rays -135 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #922 Tampa Bay Rays over Boston Red Sox (4:10pm EST) It's not very often you find David Price lined this low at home against a last place team. But that's what we have today, as the Rays host the Red Sox. These two squads have vastly underachieved through the first quarter or so of the season, but they both have the talent to bounce back quickly. Price isn't putting up his normal numbers in 2014, but all of his peripheral statistics are looking good. He's striking out more batters, walking far less and is still an intimidating force on the mound. Before long he'll have his ERA where it belongs, so I'm not worried. The Rays know how to get their pitchers dealing and Price is the best they have. On the other side is veteran Jake Peavy, who is a shell of his former self. The 33-year old checks in with a 4.33 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in nine starts this season. His biggest problem has been his control, as Peavy is walking 4.5 batters per nine innings - more than double his walk rate last season. The Rays have been one of the better teams at home over the last five or six seasons and this price is just too low with an ace on the hill. The play is Tampa Bay. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-24-14 | New York Yankees -105 v. Chicago White Sox | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 13 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #917 New York Yankees over Chicago White Sox (2:10pm EST) I don't have much confidence in either one of today's left-handers pitching in Chicago today. Youngster Vidal Nuno makes the start for the Yankees while veteran John Danks goes for the White Sox. Both have been erratic this season and are huge wild cards as far as what to expect on the mound today. As a result, I think this game comes down to what the respective offenses can do and the bullpens. In both of those areas, I give the edge to the Yankees. New York's lineup has produced at just an average rate this season, but they had a lot of turnover in the offseason and guys are finally getting settled in now. There are too many good hitters to finish in the middle of the road, so I expect this offense to creep up the runs scored board in the AL. For the White Sox, the offense has been fantastic so far this season with the 2nd most runs in the AL. However, they recently lost their slugger Jose Abreu and he was the most valuable player in the league before he went down. The Sox have done a good job picking up the slack since he went down, but there's no way they can keep it up. Remember that Chicago was dead last in runs scored in the league last season. So they will regress and finish no better than average when it's all said and done. This is a perfect example of not putting too much stock into one-quarter of a season and overreacting. As for the bullpens, both teams have had their bumps in the road but I just have more confidence in what the Yankees can send out there late in the game. Take the Yankees today. |
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05-23-14 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Cincinnati Reds -107 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
10-unit Play Take #960 Cincinnati Reds over St. Louis Cardinals (7:10pm EST) It was somewhat of a mystery at the time when Shelby Miller didn't take the mound in last year's playoffs for the St. Louis Cardinals. The rookie had just completed a fantastic regular season and at times he was the Cardinals best starting pitcher. But things changed as the season wore on and the league started to catch up with Miller. It's not as apparent in the mainstream numbers, but Miller isn't as good of a pitcher now as he was at the beginning of 2013. His numbers this season appear really good on the surface, as he has a 2.79 ERA and is 6-2 on the season. But his WHIP is high at 1.41 and he's walking 5.1 batters per nine innings. He's also been more prone to the long ball. He's managed to escape tons of jams evidenced by his 91% strand rate. But pitchers don't stay that lucky forever, and Miller is in line for some major regression. The Reds are without Joey Votto, so runs aren't going to be as easy to come by. However, at the rate that Miller has been issuing free passes, they should be able to get plenty of baserunners. Homer Bailey gets the nod for Cincinnati. He's been inconsistent once again this season, but his ERA is no indication of how good he really is. Bailey is the anti-Miller as he has struggled when he's gotten into jams and his 5.44 ERA is a reflection of that. His peripheral numbers are right in line with the last two seasons, when he held ERAs in the mid 3's. I don't expect that to change, so I give the pitching edge to the Reds today. Add in home field advantage and a stronger backend of the bullpen, and I like Cincinnati here as our Game of the Week. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-22-14 | Cleveland Indians v. Baltimore Orioles -140 | 8-7 | Loss | -140 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #922 Baltimore Orioles over Cleveland Indians (7:05pm EST) One of the biggest reasons I don't see the Baltimore Orioles staying in playoff contention all year is their starting rotation. There are way too many question marks and not enough guys to count on each time out. Today's starter Wei-Yin Chen is the exception. The Japanese import doesn't get a ton of fanfare, but he quietly goes about his business and puts up fantastic numbers. He's 5-2 with a 3.69 ERA this season in eight starts. He has improved his control considerably as his walk rate is down nearly 30% and he's inducing far more groundballs than he did in his first two seasons. Left-handed pitchers do well in Camden Yards due to the dimensions, so that's another added advantage Chen has when pitching at home. Today he'll face the Indians, and they have the worst OPS in baseball against lefties. They're hitting just .221 against southpaws. The Indians had to scratch starting pitcher Josh Tomlin for today as he was used in yesterday's game as reliever. Today's starter is in a difficult spot today as the Cleveland bullpen has decimated yesterday against Detroit. They threw over 200 pitches in a 13-inning affair versus the Tigers. As a result, the Indians may have to ride out the starter a little longer than they would like to. The Orioles offense should be able to take advantage. |
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05-21-14 | Seattle Mariners v. Texas Rangers -137 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 3 h 55 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #966 Texas Rangers over Seattle Mariners (2:05pm EST) If Chris Young were a cat, he'd be working on his last life. The 35-year old right-hander has bounced around the majors his entire career and was nearly out of baseball for good a couple of times. His fastball barely hits 85mph on the radar gun and his control isn't particularly good. He doesn't induce many groundballs and opposing hitters don't fear him. But somehow Young latched on with the Mariners and so far he's miraculously posted a 3.22 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Based on his skill set and peripheral statistics, Young should have an ERA in the 5's. He's been aided by a ridiculously low .199 BABIP and he's pitching much better with runners in scoring position. As a result, once those numbers regress to their normal levels, we should see the real Chris Young - and it won't be pretty. The Texas Rangers will try to expose Young today in Arlington. The Rangers have been struggling at the plate most of the season, but they've hit well the last couple of games. They've been dealing with injuries all season long, so they haven't had the consistency they would have liked. Nick Tepesch gets the ball for the Rangers. Tepesch looked really good in his first outing of the season last time out. He struck out eight batters in 5.1 innings of work and allowed just two hits. He also threw the ball really well in Triple-A, posting a 1.58 ERA in seven starts. Texas has the better pitcher on the mound in this one and their offense rates better than Seattle's. Throw in the home field advantage and we get a bargain price on the Rangers. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-20-14 | Philadelphia Phillies v. Miami Marlins +102 | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #904 Miami Marlins over Philadelphia Phillies (7:10pm EST) The Miami Marlins were dealt a huge blow last week when they found out Jose Fernandez would be lost for the season. While it almost certainly destroys their already dim playoff dreams, that doesn't change the fact that this Marlins teams is vastly improved over last year. They have one of the better offenses in the NL are in second in the league in runs scored. They also still have a good starting rotation and one of the best closers in the league. Anthony DeSclafani takes over for Fernandez in the rotation, and he takes the hill for this one. He has some big shoes to fill, but nobody is asking this 24-year old to do that. There's no pressure on him and he put up some pretty good numbers the last couple of years in the minor leagues. He should have the advantage against the hitters in his first few starts as no one has seen any of his stuff. The Phillies will take their cracks at DeSclafani today and their offense has really struggled out of the gates this season. They are 12th in the NL in runs scored and have several aging veterans on the downside of their career. Philadelphia knows that they aren't going to be competitive this season, and it's only a matter of time before some of their veterans get moved. Team morale isn't high and that generally translates into losses on the diamond. The Marlins are young and hungry and quite honestly have the better team overall. Miami is also a spectacular 17-5 at home this season - the best mark in baseball. Plenty of value with the Marlins today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-19-14 | Chicago White Sox v. Kansas City Royals -175 | 7-6 | Loss | -175 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #958 Kansas City Royals (-170) over Chicago White Sox (8:10pm EST) No player has had a bigger impact on his team thus far than Jose Abreu has. The White Sox first baseman won AL Player of the Month in April and is leading the majors in home runs with 15. But Chicago just put him on the disabled list with an ankle injury, and that is going to significantly impair a White Sox offense that had been producing at a high rate. The White Sox are 2nd in the AL in runs scored, but without Abreu this turns into a below average lineup. It's going to be particularly tough to be without their powerful right-handed hitter today in Kansas City as they go up against a tough lefty. Jason Vargas gets the ball for the Royals and he's been great in his first season in Kansas City. He's 4-1 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in nine starts in 2014. He's never been a pitcher with a big upside, but he always keeps his team in the game and that should be more than enough today. That's because Scott Carroll pitches for the White Sox. The rookie right-hander has been horrible in his four starts, posting a 5.24 ERA and 1.75 WHIP. More discouraging is his 7-6 K/BB ratio in 22.1 innings of work. That's a lot of contact with a subpar White Sox defense behind him. Total mismatch here today and we'll lay the big price in what should be an easy win. |
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05-18-14 | Los Angeles Dodgers -119 v. Arizona Diamondbacks | 3-5 | Loss | -119 | 4 h 56 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #911 Los Angeles Dodgers (-120) over Arizona Diamondbacks (4:10pm EST) |
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05-18-14 | Toronto Blue Jays -115 v. Texas Rangers | 2-6 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 51 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #923 Toronto Blue Jays (-115) over Texas Rangers (3:05pm EST) Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-18-14 | Atlanta Braves +106 v. St. Louis Cardinals | 6-5 | Win | 106 | 2 h 14 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #905 Atlanta Braves over St. Louis Cardinals (2:15pm EST) Pitching injuries are the theme for today's game between the Atlanta Braves and St. Louis Cardinals. Gavin Floyd just returned from an injury to his right elbow and is making his third start of the season. He's looked impressive in his first two outings with a 2.70 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. His velocity has been great and he's locating his pitches exceptionally evidenced by his 13-2 K/BB ratio. For the Cardinals, Jaime Garcia returns from a stint on the disabled list to make his first start of the 2014 season. Garcia had season-ending shoulder surgery last season and he looks to regain his old form today at home. However, Garcia didn't look very sharp in two minor league rehab outings recently. Shoulders can be tougher to bounce back from, so I'm not sure Garcia will display anything close to his top form today. The Braves have torched left-handed pitching so far this season, so it could be a difficult time for Garcia. If both pitchers struggle, this game could come down to the bullpens and I like the Braves' pen better if that's the case. We'll go with the Braves here at the plus price. |
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05-17-14 | Seattle Mariners +103 v. Minnesota Twins | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 22 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #973 Seattle Mariners over Minnesota Twins (7:10pm EST) This is an early line value play that Doc’s Sports immediately put up on the board once the lines were released on Friday. This is a system play in this regard. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-15-14 | Tampa Bay Rays v. Los Angeles Angels -138 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
10-unit Play Take #966 Los Angeles Angels over Tampa Bay Rays (10:05pm EST) Good spot here for the Angels as we get an undervalued team and an undervalued starting pitcher all rolled into one. Tyler Skaggs is the underrated pitcher that isn't getting a ton of attention right now. He's just 3-1 with a 4.14 ERA and 1.12 WHIP, but his stuff has looked lights out thus far. He's throwing harder than ever and looks much more confident than the guy that took the ball in Arizona last season. Skaggs has increased his groundball rate significantly and is pitching to contact to avoid high pitch counts early in games. So far it's working and I expect him to get better as the season goes on. The Angels as a team are also better than their 21-18 record indicates. They have the fourth best run differential in baseball and they've produced offensively despite some big injuries to Josh Hamilton, Kole Calhoun and David Freese. They'll go up against Erik Bedard and the Tampa Bay Rays in this one. Bedard checks in with a respectable 3.38 ERA in six games, but don't let that fool you. The veteran left-hander has struggled to stay in games and his peripheral numbers tell a completely different story. Bedard is walking nearly as many guys as he's striking out and his groundball rate is amongst the worst in baseball. Sooner or later those kinds of things come back to haunt you, so I expect Bedard to get pounded soon. The Angels have the offense to do it and I like them in this spot. |
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05-15-14 | New York Yankees -104 v. New York Mets | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #967 New York Yankees over New York Mets (7:10pm EST) The handicap on this game is relatively simple. Both the Yankees and Mets have rookie pitchers taking the mound that are big unknown commodities. I like Chase Whitley a little bit more than Jacob DeGrom based on the minor league scouting reports. I also think the Yankees have the better offense and bullpen, so this line seems awfully light. Take the Yanks to win the final game of the Subway Series. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-14-14 | Cleveland Indians -101 v. Toronto Blue Jays | Top | 15-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #919 Cleveland Indians over Toronto Blue Jays (7:05pm EST)Â One of the most underrated starting pitchers in the AL is Indians starter Corey Kluber. He was great for the Tribe in 2013 going 11-5 with a 3.85 ERA and an excellent K/BB ratio. This season he is even better, increasing his strikeouts by 20% and also inducing more groundballs than ever. At just 28 years of age, I expect Kluber to continue to improve and possibly get to an All-Star level. He won't easily be confused with Toronto's start in this one Dustin McGowan. McGowan has struggled with injuries the last couple of years and his stuff is clearly diminished. In seven starts this season he has a 4.63 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. His K/BB ratio is an unacceptable 22-15 and I don't think he can make it through the season with those kinds of numbers. So we have a big advantage for the Indians on the mound today, while the teams are mostly even in the other important aspects. I have both teams rated roughly the same on offense and in the bullpen, so the difference in this game will be the starting pitching. Take the Tribe tonight. |
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05-14-14 | Los Angeles Angels -107 v. Philadelphia Phillies | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 2 h 43 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #925 Los Angeles Angels over Philadelphia Phillies (1:05pm EST) Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-13-14 | Detroit Tigers +101 v. Baltimore Orioles | Top | 4-1 | Win | 101 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #965 Detroit Tigers over Baltimore Orioles (7:05pm EST) We played the Tigers successfully yesterday and we like them again today for the same reasons. Detroit simply isn't getting enough respect by the betting markets despite holding the best record in baseball. They have an excellent every day lineup, an elite starting rotation and one of the best closers in the history of baseball. But despite it all, we're still seeing lines that are far too short. Tiger's starters have allowed three earned runs or less in 14 straight games, with an ERA of 2.07 during that stretch. Drew Smyly will get the opportunity to extend that streak and I like his chances to do it. The 24-year old southpaw comes in with a 2.96 ERA and 1.10 WHIP and has been one of the unsung heroes of this ballclub the past couple of seasons. I don't like what I've seen from the Baltimore Orioles so far in 2014. They are leading the AL East but have a negative run differential on the season. Their offense is severely overrated as they are 13th in the AL in runs scored and most of that is due to their impatience at the plate. They've been particularly bad against left-handed pitching this season, so Smyly should be able to shut them down. The Tigers are probably licking their chops with Ubaldo Jimenez toeing the rubber for the O's. He's been awful once again with a 4.73 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in his first season in Baltimore. This one could get out of hand quickly. Take the Tigers in a route. |
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05-12-14 | Detroit Tigers -105 v. Baltimore Orioles | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #911 Detroit Tigers over Baltimore Orioles (7:05pm EST) The Detroit Tigers currently have the best record in baseball at 21-12. But surprisingly enough, they aren't being rated particularly highly by the betting markets. There are definitely some weaknesses on this Tigers team, but they had similar chinks in their armor last season. They are only a small favorite against a Baltimore Orioles team that is severely overrated in my book. The O's are just 12th in the AL in hitting and star catcher Matt Wieters just went on the disabled list. That will hurt them offensively, defensively and in the dugout. They did get back Chris Davis, but I don't think Baltimore is as potent offensively as most believe. They are terrible at drawing walks and don't work the count enough to get favorable pitches to hit. They'll go up against right-hander Rick Porcello, who has quietly put together a very nice season so far. Porcello is 5-1 with a 3.49 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in his sixth major league season. He's walking just 1.4 batters per nine innings, so don't expect any free passes for the Orioles tonight. The Tigers should be able to give Porcello plenty of run support going against a very average Bud Norris. Miguel Cabrera is finally heating up and Detroit has one of the best lineups in the AL. We're on the Tigers here. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-11-14 | Arizona Diamondbacks -104 v. Chicago White Sox | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 2 h 49 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #977 Arizona Diamondbacks over Chicago White Sox (2:10pm EST)Â Lots of unknowns in today's game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Chicago White Sox. For starters, Chase Anderson makes his major league debut for the D-Backs. He's been fairly highly-touted but you haven't heard his name much because Arizona has an even better prospect in Archie Bradley. It's a bit surprising Bradley isn't the one being brought up, but Anderson has been very good in the minors this season. In six starts, the right-hander has posted a miniscule 0.69 ERA and 0.72 WHIP. He has 38 strikeouts versus just six walks over 39 innings of work. The White Sox obviously haven't seen him, so Anderson should have a decent leg up the first time around the order. The other wild card in this one is Sox pitcher Hector Noesi. He wasn't even on the roster this spring, but Chicago needed to plug some holes due to injuries and Noesi was available. He's had a rough time in eight outings this season, posting an 8.27 ERA and 1.65 WHIP. He's obviously going to improve from there, but there's a reason that he's already been on three ballclubs this season. Arizona has been abysmal at the plate in 2014, but it's slowly improving. Chicago doesn't have a great bullpen either, so there's a good chance the D-Backs could get in some good swings today. Arizona has a good chance to pick up the win in this one. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-11-14 | Colorado Rockies v. Cincinnati Reds -123 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 1 h 48 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #954 Cincinnati Reds over Colorado Rockies (1:10pm EST)Â The Colorado Rockies are getting plenty of attention after a red-hot start to the season - maybe a little too much. Yes the Rockies have been killing the ball offensively lately, but let's not forget that they play in a hitter's park and aren't even close to the same team on the road. At home the Rockies are hitting a robust .355, but on the road they are at .255. That's still a respectable mark, but not much above average in the NL. The Reds have some good news in that their stud closer Aroldis Chapman is finally back in the fold after taking a line drive off the head. He's a difference maker and will be a huge boost if this game is close late. I like the pitching matchup here for the Reds as well. Homer Bailey hasn't been very good so far in 2014, but he's better than his counterpart Juan Nicasio. Both are inconsistent, but Bailey has much better stuff and a better track record historically. I'm surprised to see the line so low on this one for Cincinnati. It feels like an overreaction to early season records, so we'll play the Reds with some value. |
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05-10-14 | Kansas City Royals -121 v. Seattle Mariners | 1-3 | Loss | -121 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
10-unit Play Take #923 Kansas City Royals over Seattle Mariners (9:10pm EST) We have an extremely lopsided starting pitching matchup in today's game between the Kansas City Royals and Seattle Mariners. Surprisingly, the line is still very short and we see plenty of value on the Royals as a result. Yordano Ventura has quickly made a name for himself in the AL. In six starts in 2014, Ventura has a 2.00 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. He throws harder than anyone in baseball, which accounts for his 41 strikeouts in 36 innings of work. His secondary pitches are good as well, and they are getting even better with each start. It's going to take the league awhile to make the proper adjustments on him and this will be the first time the Mariners are seeing him. That's an advantage to Ventura and I just don't see an inept Seattle offense being able to push more than two or three runs across. That won't be enough with Chris Young on the mound for the M's. Young has been playing with fire this season. He's the anti-Ventura, throwing his fastball in the mid-80's and relying on deception and control to get hitters out. He's been extremely fortunate to strand 83% of baserunners and keep his ERA in the low 3's, but that won't last. He's walking more guys than he's striking out and that doesn't cut it at the major league level. The Royals offense hasn't exactly been tearing the cover off the ball this year, but they did plate six runs versus the M's last night. They should do even better than that in this one as they our choice as 10-unit Game of the Week. |
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05-10-14 | Houston Astros +149 v. Baltimore Orioles | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #917 Houston Astros over Baltimore Orioles (7:05pm EST) The Baltimore Orioles come into today's matchup versus the Houston Astros atop the AL East at 19-14. But don't let the record fool you. This Orioles team has some major holes, but they've been fortunate to hide them for now. Baltimore is 8-3 in one run games and actually has a run differential of zero despite being five games above the .500 mark. Their offense is just 13th in the AL in runs scored and slugger Chris Davis is on the disabled list. Their bullpen has some gaping holes and I really don't like anyone in their rotation, including today's starter Miguel Gonzalez. He still makes plenty of mistakes in the zone and is susceptible to that one big inning in any given start. The Houston Astros are a bad baseball team, but they have a few bright spots including their starter today Collin McHugh. He's put up some very impressive peripheral statistics but is floating under the radar in betting circles. This price is a bit too high, so we're taking a shot on Houston here. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-10-14 | San Francisco Giants v. Los Angeles Dodgers -148 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 48 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #902 Los Angeles Dodgers over San Francisco Giants (4:10pm EST) I don't focus much time on home/road splits for starting pitchers because they usually aren't extreme enough to warrant much attention. However, one exception is Zack Greinke. No pitcher in baseball has had a wider discrepancy between his home and road starts over the last three years than Greinke has. He's right there amongst the best pitchers in baseball when pitching at home and his record is amazing. The Dodgers are 15-3 in Greinke's last 18 home starts and his record with the Brewers was equally as impressive. The Giants have a potent lineup but I can't imagine them getting much off Greinke here. Brandon Belt and Marco Scutaro are both on the disabled list, and that takes away some of the depth and balance this team is accustomed to. The Dodgers haven't played like they are capable of this season, but I like their chances to produce against San Francisco starter Matt Cain. The veteran right-hander is coming off the disabled list after dealing with a finger injury. He's been very shaky this season and quite frankly his stuff isn't as good as it was earlier in his career. He's one of the more overrated pitchers in baseball, so we'll look to take advantage of the perception. Play the Dodgers in this one. |
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05-09-14 | San Francisco Giants -127 v. Los Angeles Dodgers | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
Two bitter rivals have at it again in Dodgers Stadium tonight. This line is tough to figure out as the Giants have a massive edge on the mound with ace Madison Bumgarner going against Paul Maholm. The market obviously knows this is a disparity, but I think they are underestimating the Giants offense more than anything. San Francisco is 4th in the NL in runs scored despite playing in one of the most extreme pitcher's parks and they're second in home runs. The Dodgers are right there with them, but the perception is that the Los Angeles offense is leaps and bounds better than the Giants. It's not the case now and I don't think it will be. One area where the Giants seem to have an edge is in the bullpen, where the Giants currently have a league-leading 1.81 ERA. They won't be able to maintain that low of a number all season, but they have several reliable options at the moment. Add it all up and the Giants should be higher favorites here. |
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05-09-14 | New York Yankees -126 v. Milwaukee Brewers | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
We've rode the Masahiro Tanaka train all season long, and there's no reason to jump off now. The Japanese sensation is 4-0 with a 2.53 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in six starts. But even more impressive is his 51-6 K/BB ratio as he makes his way through the league for the first time. The Milwaukee Brewers have obviously never seen Tanaka, so he will have the edge again tonight. Yovani Gallardo takes the hill for Milwaukee and he hasn't looked very good lately. In his last two starts the right-hander has given up seven runs in 12 innings and only has a total of three strikeouts. He's been a very inconsistent pitcher during his career, so now is the time to avoid him. Ryan Braun is still out for the Brew Crew and that will make things even tougher in a difficult matchup. We like the Yankees here. |
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05-09-14 | Colorado Rockies v. Cincinnati Reds -165 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
If you haven't watched Johnny Cueto pitch yet this season, you're missing out one of the most underrated hurlers in the game. Cueto has been spectacular in 2014 with a 1.31 ERA and 0.73 WHIP in seven starts. He has one of the most electrifying throwing motions in baseball and has baffled hitters since breaking into the league. This is his best season yet and I don't see him letting up against a Rockies team that has to travel in from Arlington to play tonight. The Rockies were tearing the cover off the ball, but they were shut out yesterday against Matt Harrison and the Rangers. Bad days at the plate sometimes carry over to the next game and that's bad news for them going up against Cueto. We could see an off day for Carlos Gonzalez or Troy Tulowitzki today with the travel. Both guys have been a little banged up this season and have been getting days off regularly. The Reds aren't playing great baseball, but they shouldn't have to score much to win this one. Take Cincinnati. |
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05-08-14 | Chicago Cubs +109 v. Chicago White Sox | Top | 12-5 | Win | 109 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
It's not easy to pull the trigger on the Cubs at 11-21, but I like their pitching edge today. Jake Arrieta has pitched really well since switching leagues and coming to the Chicago. Most pitchers that go from the AL to NL see vast improvement, and Arrieta is no exception. Last season the right-hander was 4-2 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.12 with the Cubs. He missed the first month of the season this year, but his first start last week was impressive. He shut down a tough Cardinals lineup, going 5.1 innings without allowing a run. The White Sox are a banged up team right now, with three key players out of the lineup - Eaton, Garcia and Dunn. They've been scoring a lot of runs this season, but that's mostly due to the AL Player of the Month Jose Abreu. Now that the cat is out of the bag on Abreu, I'm sure opposing pitchers have taken notice. Rookie Scott Carroll goes for the Sox today. He's 29-years old after floating around in the minor leagues for nearly seven years. That's not a good sign and his results should bear that out. He pitched well in his first two starts, but he was extremely fortunate to work out of some jams. In his two starts he only struck out a total of three batters, so the Cubs will make some contact against him. Take the Cubs here in a rare win. |
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05-07-14 | Chicago Cubs -104 v. Chicago White Sox | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
The Crosstown Classic switches venues as the series shifts to US Cellular Field - home of the Chicago White Sox. The Sox are the better baseball team, but there are several reasons to like the Cubs in today's matchup. First and foremost, the Cubs have a vastly underrated starting pitcher on the mound in Travis Wood. He doesn't get much attention playing on a bad team, but Wood is putting up great numbers all around this season. He's even capable of getting some hits at the plate and hit a home run for the fourth consecutive season earlier this year. On the other side is southpaw John Danks, who has been one of the shakiest starters in the AL this season. Danks is coming off surgery and hasn't regained his velocity, so he's relying on his control more than ever. It hasn't worked. Danks is walking 5.0 batters per nine innings while only striking out 5.2. He's a gritty pitcher, but grit can only get you so far. The Cubs have hit lefties surprisingly well this season, so I expect them to plate some runs for a change. If Wood pitches like he usually does, then we should be able to put one in the win column with the Cubs. |
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05-06-14 | New York Yankees v. Los Angeles Angels -137 | 4-3 | Loss | -137 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #918 Los Angles Angels over New York Yankees (10:05pm EST) If you've watched Hiroki Kuroda pitch this season, you've noticed that he's starting to look pretty old out there. At 39 years of age, Father Time has finally paid the Japanese hurler a visit and it hasn't been pretty. The decline started at the end of last season when Kuroda posted a 5.12 ERA in August and a 5.70 ERA in September. That carried over into 2014 as he enters today with a 5.14 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. Opposing batters are hitting him hard as Kuroda's pitches don't have the same movement that they once did. The Los Angeles Angels have been one of the best offense s in baseball this season, so they should be able to take advantage. Take the Angels. |
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05-06-14 | Chicago White Sox +122 v. Chicago Cubs | 5-1 | Win | 122 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #925 Chicago White Sox over Chicago Cubs (8:05pm EST) Game 2 of the Crosstown Classic is tonight in Wrigley as the Cubs host the White Sox. Runs were hard to come by in yesterday's 3-1 White Sox win in extra innings with Jose Quintana and Jeff Samardzija on the mound. They won't have that problem tonight, however, with Hector Noesi and Edwin Jackson getting a turn. Both starters are very unreliable and both offenses should get some good chances to plate runs today. As a result, I think the White Sox have a big edge in this one. The Sox are leading the AL in runs scored and have been great with runners in scoring position this season. The Cubs, meanwhile, are near the bottom of the NL in runs scored and are hitting .198 with runners in scoring position. Jose Abreu has been an absolute monster in the middle of the lineup for the Sox, and he's the reason they've been so productive. The White Sox also have a bit better bullpen and the Cubs really don't get their normal home field advantage here. The Sox are the better team overall so it's hard to figure out why they're the underdog today. Take the White Sox to get the victory here. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-06-14 | Baltimore Orioles v. Tampa Bay Rays -143 | 5-3 | Loss | -143 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #916 Tampa Bay Rays over Baltimore Orioles (7:10pm EST) The Baltimore Orioles head to Tampa to take on the Rays in the first of three games. The O's have had tons of problems at the plate this season and it's gotten worse over the last week. They've averaged just 2.9 runs per game over their last eight contests and are currently 11th in the AL in runs score. To make matters even worse, slugger Chris Davis is on the disabled list with an oblique injury. They'll have a tough time against Ray's starter Chris Archer, who is flying under the radar as one of young up-and-coming hurlers in the league. He doesn't have a great ERA but his peripheral numbers are impressive. The O's send Chris Tillman to the hill and he's been steady for them the last couple of seasons. He's not the kind of guy that is going to dominate a game, but he usually gives his team a shot to win. Tampa Bay was a little slow out of the games, but they've won four of five and their bats are starting to heat up. We're on the Rays here. |
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05-05-14 | Seattle Mariners v. Oakland A's -193 | 4-2 | Loss | -193 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #966 Oakland A's over Seattle Mariners (10:05pm EST) This one is a simple handicap with Chris Young on the mound for the Seattle Mariners. The 34-year old veteran simply doesn't belong in the major leagues anymore. He throws in the mid-80's and doesn't have very good control - a recipe for disaster based on lack of stuff alone. To make matters worse, he has one of the lowest groundball rates in the league at just 24%. Somehow Young has avoided the big inning in his starts and comes in with a 3.04 ERA. It should be more than double that based on his skills and peripheral numbers. The Oakland A's have one of the best offense in baseball and they should surely be able to take advantage of one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball. The price is big, but it should be even bigger. Take Oakland in a laugher. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-04-14 | St. Louis Cardinals -137 v. Chicago Cubs | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #913 St. Louis Cardinals over Chicago Cubs (8:05pm EST) It's the ESPN Sunday Night Game of the Week between two arch rivals - the Cardinals and Cubs. Chicago has taken the first two of this series to push the Cardinals below .500 just one season after going to the World Series. It's not too surprising that St. Louis sits at 15-16 over a month into the 2014 campaign though. The World Series run is long and can have a carryover effect into the following season for many teams. They'll eventually snap out of it and their talent will take over. This team is just too good to stay down for long. Today's starter Lance Lynn is doing his part to get the team on track going 4-1 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in six starts. He's always been good early on in the season and 2014 has been no exception. For the Cubs, it's been another tough year of rebuilding so far. They enter today's contest at 11-17 and are 13th in the NL in runs scored. Their top two hitters (Anthony Rizzo and Starlin Castro) are hitting, but the supporting cast is one of the worst in the sport. Jason Hammel is having a really nice season at 4-1 with a 2.08 ERA and 0.69 WHIP, but will it last? His peripheral numbers point to a pitcher with an ERA in the mid-3's, so regression is in order for the right-hander. I do think the Cubs got him at a bargain price, but he's more like a #3 or #4 starter than the ace he is pitching like. The Cardinals will avoid the sweep and pick up the win tonight. |
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05-04-14 | Baltimore Orioles v. Minnesota Twins -103 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 2 h 9 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #926 Minnesota Twins (-110) over Baltimore Orioles (2:10pm EST) |
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05-04-14 | Tampa Bay Rays v. New York Yankees -140 | 5-1 | Loss | -140 | 1 h 5 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #916 New York Yankees (-140) over Tampa Bay Rays (1:05pm EST) |
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05-03-14 | Seattle Mariners v. Houston Astros +115 | Top | 9-8 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 18 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #972 Houston Astros over Seattle Mariners (4:10pm EST)Â The Houston Astros are still the worst team in the major leagues, but they have a few bright spots. One of those is today's starter Dallas Keuchel. The 26-year old left-hander has really turned some heads this season, posting a 3.56 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in five starts. His peripheral statistics are even more impressive as Keuchel is striking out 8.9 batters per nine innings and inducing an insane 64% groundball rate. He has All-Star potential and has certainly started out the season at an All-Star level. On the other side is right-hander Hisashi Iwakuma. The Seattle starter is making his first start after dealing with a finger injury all spring. He did make one rehab start but it wasn't particularly impressive. I doubt the M's will let him go past five or six innings, so that will give the Astros several shots at a mediocre bullpen. Both of these clubs have struggled out of the gates offensively, with the Mariners in 14th in the AL and the Astros 15th. With no distinct advantage there, I think Keuchel is the difference in this game. Take the Astros as the home underdog. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-03-14 | Oakland A's v. Boston Red Sox -140 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 3 h 46 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #968 Boston Red Sox over Oakland A's (1:35pm EST)Â The Oakland A's are off to a fantastic start to the season at 18-11. They're wins have been legit and they're leading several categories on offense and defense at the outset. However, they do have some weaknesses and one of them pitches today. Left-hander Tommy Milone wasn't supposed to be in the Oakland rotation this season, but was forced into action with a couple of injuries to his teammates. It hasn't been pretty so far. Milone is 0-2 with a 4.56 ERA and 1.39 WHIP and is striking out only 4.2 batters per nine innings. He's a flyball pitcher, which could get him into some trouble in Fenway today where the dimensions are unique. The Red Sox are finally swinging the bats better after a slow start to the season. They had a few guys banged up but are healthy now and this is still one of the better lineups in the AL. Jon Lester goes for Boston and he's off to a fantastic start in 2014. He's putting up career-best number in every area of his game and this is a contract year for Lester - probably not a coincidence. The A's have the better overall team, but the Sox have a huge pitching advantage on the mound today and they're at home. Take Boston. |
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05-02-14 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Pittsburgh Pirates -134 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 21 h 49 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #930 Pittsburgh Pirates over Toronto Blue Jays (7:05pm EST) The Pittsburgh Pirates aren't off to the kind of start they would have hoped for, but they've got the right guy on the mound to turn things around on Friday. The 23-year old right-hander has quickly developed into an ace with just 24 major league starts under his belt. Cole enters today's contest with a 3.18 ERA and he seemingly gets better and better with each outing. He is coming off of a great performance in St. Louis where he held a dangerous Cardinals lineup to just one run in seven innings. That was on the heels of a start in which Cole held the red hot Brewers to one run in eight innings. The Toronto Blue Jays will have the daunting task of going up against Cole today, and this will be the first time they have seen the young phenom. Advantage Cole for at least the first couple of times through the order. Brandon Morrow gets the ball for the Jays and he's coming off of the worst pitching performance in the majors this season. Morrow walked eight batters in just 2.2 innings of work before getting bounced against the Red Sox last week. He looked completely lost on the mound in that start and I don't think he has the confidence to turn things around right away. Morrow has struggled with consistency over the last few seasons and has a heavy 6.04 ERA in five starts this year. Last season he pitched just half a season after dealing with injuries and he finished with a 5.63 ERA. The Pirates haven't been hitting much this season, but they are a fairly patient team at the plate and should be able put some pressure on Morrow again. Morrow could get bounced very early again, which could make matters worse as the Jays pen has really been laboring of late. All signs point to a Pittsburgh victory today and we're on it as our May Game of the Week. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-01-14 | Los Angeles Dodgers (GM 1) -160 v. Minnesota Twins (GM 1) | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 1 h 11 m | Show | |
5-unit Play Take #963 Los Angeles Dodgers over Minnesota Twins (1:10pm EST) The handicap in this one is simple. Minnesota starter Mike Pelfrey is an auto-fade in every start until he turns things around. The 30-year old right-hander comes into today with a 7.32 ERA and 1.88 WHIP in his first four starts. But that's not even the worst of it as Pelfrey has an unfathomable 8-15 K/BB ratio, which is as bad as it gets. He'll face a dangerous Los Angeles Dodgers lineup that should have a field day at the plate. The Dodgers are one of the few teams in the NL that really benefits by adding a designated hitter, as they usually have Andre Ethier or Carl Crawford on the bench. Dan Haren gets the ball for Los Angeles and he's as good as ever in Dodger blue. Haren is 3-0 with a 2.03 ERA and 1.13 WHIP to go along with a very strong 27-4 K/BB ratio. The Dodgers were just looking for a decent starter to fill the back-end of their rotation, but they've got another ace in Haren. All of his metrics fully support his ERA, so we could see this all season long. The Twins have been hitting the ball well to start the season, but I don't expect it to last. It's basically the same lineup that finished second to last in runs in the AL last season, so we should see regression. The Dodgers will roll in this game and it won't be close. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-30-14 | Milwaukee Brewers +141 v. St. Louis Cardinals | 3-9 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 19 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #901 Milwaukee Brewers over St. Louis Cardinals (1:45pm EST) The Milwaukee Brewers are off to the best start in baseball at 20-7 through 27 games. The St. Louis Cardinals have been a little slow out of the gate at just 14-14. But the betting markets haven't blinked an eye and still see the Cardinals as a much better team overall. Today's game is a perfect example with St. Louis favored in the -140's with an inferior pitcher on the mound. It's important not to overreact to a small first month sample, but this market isn't reacting at all to the starts of the Brewers and Cardinals. Clearly Milwaukee is a little bit better than everyone thought, and the Cards are still a little hung over from the World Series last season. Shelby Miller is also getting a little bit too much credit for his 2.86 ERA in 2014. He's walked 5.7 batters per nine innings but is surviving due to an unsustainable 94% strand rate. He's the worst pitcher in their rotation and there's definitely a reason he didn't see postseason action last year. Matt Garza toes the rubber for the Brewers and he's been solid as usual. When Garza is fully healthy he's an All-Star quality pitcher, but he doesn't get enough respect because he isn't flashy. But he's definitely the better pitcher today and the Brewers are excelling in every area over the Cardinals so far this season. I have this game much closer to a pick, so the value is with the Brewers. |
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04-29-14 | Seattle Mariners v. New York Yankees -180 | 6-3 | Loss | -180 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #964 New York Yankees over Seattle Mariners (7:05pm EST) It didn't look good for CC Sabathia coming into this season. His velocity was down during spring training and he was getting knocked around pretty good. He was also coming off of his worst season in his career in 2013 when he finished with a 4.78 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. What Sabathia had to do was reinvent himself if he was going to be successful, and so far the results are much better. Sabathia has focused more on location and his secondary pitches. While his ERA is still in the high 4's, his peripheral numbers point to a much better pitcher in his first five starts. Sabathia is striking out 9.8 batters per nine innings, which is currently the highest in his career. He also has cut down on his walks and is inducing an amazing 57% groundball rate. If he can keep those numbers consistent, we're talking about an All-Star caliber pitcher once again. He'll face an abysmal Seattle Mariners today. The M's are 14th in the AL in runs per game and currently have only one hitter batting over .242, and that is Robinson Cano. Cano will be making his first trip to the Bronx after leaving for the money and he should hear plenty of boos. I have a feeling that the Yankees will be more fired up than usual for this one as a result. Although they probably won't need any extra motivation with Chris Young on the hill for Seattle. Young is one of the worst starters in baseball and it won't take long for him to self-destruct. He's walking more batters than he's striking out despite only throwing the mid-80's. That's a recipe for disaster and the Yankees should be able to touch him up pretty good. Take New York here. |
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04-27-14 | Los Angeles Angels v. New York Yankees -161 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #978 New York Yankees over Los Angeles Angels (8:05pm EST) If you haven't watched Masahiro Tanaka pitch yet this season, you are missing out. It's been a treat watching the Japanese import masterfully pick apart major league hitters in his first four starts. Tanaka is 3-0 with a 2.15 ERA and 0.82 WHIP, but it's his peripheral numbers that are eye-popping. In 29.1 innings of work, Tanaka has a ridiculous 35-2 K/BB ratio. Quite simply, Tanaka has been the best pitcher in baseball over the first month of the season. Part of his success is due to the fact that the opposition has yet to see Tanaka up close, and that trend will continue today when he faces the Angels. Anaheim is off to a good start with the bats as they're second in the AL in runs scored. However, they are now without Josh Hamilton and Kole Calhoun, which represents two-thirds of their outfield. Starting for the Angels on the mound tonight is Garrett Richards. The right-hander is off to a good start in 2014 with a 2.52 ERA and 1.08 WHIP and is throwing harder than ever. The Yankees will definitely have a hard time plating many runs against Richards, but they shouldn't need many with Tanaka throwing. There's a good chance that this game comes down the bullpens, and if it does the Yanks have a huge advantage. The Angels bullpen has been a gas can all season long and they just changed closers. New York has closer David Robertson back and he's a big asset if it comes down to him. Overall the market isn't pricing Tanaka correctly and we'll take the Yankees as a result. |
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04-26-14 | Oakland A's v. Houston Astros +152 | 6-7 | Win | 152 | 17 h 21 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #924 Houston Astros  over Oakland A's (7:10pm EST) There's no question that the Houston Astros are still the worst team in the major leagues, but they're getting better. The biggest improvement is in their rotation, including today's starter Dallas Keuchel. The 26-year old southpaw has been one of the better pitchers in the AL so far this season and he's getting virtually zero publicity for it. Keuchel is 2-1 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.29 WHIP and is striking out a batter per inning while only walking 2.2 per nine innings. He doesn't throw hard but he knows how to attack hitters and is wise beyond his years. The A's counter with right-hander Dan Straily today. Straily has been tough to peg in his short career due to his inconsistencies. Nobody questions his stuff, but he's had problems with his control and has gotten himself into plenty of jams because of it. The Astros aren't a great hitting team, but I think they have a good chance to make some things happen against Straily. With Houston playing at home, there is tremendous value in this price so we're on the Astros. |
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04-25-14 | Pittsburgh Pirates +100 v. St. Louis Cardinals | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #959 Pittsburgh Pirates over St. Louis Cardinals (8:15pm EST) The Pirates and Cardinals have developed a nice little rivalry over the last couple of seasons. The Cards knocked the Buccos out of the playoffs last year, so the intensity has grown even more in 2014. One pitcher who didn't see action in last year's playoff series was today's starter Shelby Miller. The Cards decided against using Miller and there was quite a bit of controversy as a result. Some speculated that Miller was on some kind of innings limit, but if that were the case then why was he on the playoff roster to begin with? The bottom line was that Mike Matheny didn't think Miller was effective down the stretch last season. Miller had an excellent first half of the season, but the league started to figure him out in the second half and he became just an average pitcher. Fast forward to 2014 and it has seemingly carried over, as Miller's control has really fallen off. He's walking 5.6 batters per nine innings and his strikeout rate and groundball rate are declining. The Cards knew something and they also tried to trade Miller in the off-season. There were no takers. Gerrit Cole, on the other hand, has been everything the Pirates could have hoped for - a true ace. Cole burst onto the scene last season and dominated from the get go. The tall right-hander is doing it again in 2014 and he should be representing the Pirates in the All-Star game this season. He'll face a sputtering Cardinals lineup today that has only scored 13 runs in its last seven games. They're 12th in the NL in runs scored with several guys looking really lost at the plate. They'll eventually get it going, but it isn't likely to happen against Cole today. Take Pittsburgh here. |
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04-25-14 | Tampa Bay Rays -132 v. Chicago White Sox | Top | 6-9 | Loss | -132 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #971 Tampa Bay Rays over Chicago White Sox (8:10pm EST) The Tampa Bay Rays have done it again. They've developed another young pitcher into a dominating force on the mound - Chris Archer. The 25-year old right-hander had a sensational rookie campaign last season posting a 3.22 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 23 starts. He has a great combination of hard-throwing stuff and intelligence in attacking opposing batters in the box. So far in 2014 he is off to another strong start at 2-1 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. More importantly, he has improved his strikeout rate and lowered his walk rate as well. Confidence exudes from Archer and he is an undervalued commodity at the moment. Chicago has gotten off to a hot start at the plate, but I don't expect it to last. In 2013, the White Sox were dead last in runs scored; even behind the hapless Astros. They did add Jose Abreu, Avisail Garcia (late in 2013) and Adam Eaton to improve the offense, but two of those guys are out for today's game (Garcia and Eaton). They'll send struggling rookie Erik Johnson to the hill today, and he doesn't appear ready for the big time just yet. He has a bloated 5.32 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in four starts and has had spotty control. That's to be expected of a youngster, but it seems like the White Sox rushed him up a little too early when they had a hole in the rotation to fill. The Rays are one of the smartest hitting teams in the league and I expect them to get some good wood on the ball against Johnson. Take the Rays as our 10-unit Game of the Week. |
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04-23-14 | Philadelphia Phillies v. Los Angeles Dodgers -155 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
 3-unit Play Take #965 Los Angeles Dodgers over Philadelphia Phillies (10:10pm EST) Zack Greinke is locked in. In his first four starts, the right-hander is 3-0 with a 2.42 ERA and 1.03 WHIP to go along with a ridiculous 29-4 K/BB ratio. When Greinke is on this kind of role, it doesn't matter who he is facing. He's also the best home pitcher in baseball over his career. A quick look at his splits bear it out, as Greinke has had an ERA about a run lower at home versus away over the last three seasons. Over his last 17 home starts, the Dodgers are 14-3. The Phillies welcome back Cole Hamels to the rotation, but you'd have to expect a little bit of rust in his first outing of the season after battling a biceps injury. I'm not high at all on this Phils team overall, so the Dodgers should be able to get there behind a red hot Greinke. This price is a bit high, but there is certainly some value with the Dodgers.  |
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04-23-14 | Minnesota Twins v. Tampa Bay Rays -180 | 6-4 | Loss | -180 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
 4-unit Play Take #976 Tampa Bay Rays over Minnesota Twins (7:10pm EST) There's bad, there's really bad, and there's awful. And then comes Mike Pelfrey. After three starts, Pelfrey takes home the award as the worst starting pitcher in the league thus far. He comes into today with a 7.98 ERA and 1.91 WHIP in 14.2 innings, but it gets worse. Pelfrey has walked an absurd 12 batters so far while only striking out seven. He's also yielded five home runs and just looks completely lost on the mound. It's shocking that the Twins are giving him another start, but it could be his last. The Tampa Bay Rays had been struggling at the plate most of the season, but they broke out against the Yankees over the weekend in a big way. They scored 11 on Friday and 16 on Saturday to finally get things going. With the way Pelfrey is struggling right now, they could easily hit double digits once again. Jake Odorizzi goes for the Rays, but he doesn't have to pitch well to pick up a win here. If he just gets through five innings, Tampa should do the rest of the work. Take the Rays to win this one with ease.  Best of Luck - Doc's Sports  |
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04-23-14 | Houston Astros +130 v. Seattle Mariners | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 54 m | Show | |
 3-unit Play Take #967 Houston Astros over Seattle Mariners (3:40pm EST) If you're putting together a list of starting pitchers to fade early on this season, Chris Young is definitely going to be near the top. Seattle added Young late in the spring due to a couple of injuries in their rotation, but it wasn't smart. Young throws in the mid-80's and doesn't even have good control. He's walked six batters over his last two outings and has only struck out two. He's managed to keep this ERA fairly low, but he's going to get torched soon and it won't take a particularly dangerous offense to do it. The Houston Astros are still the worst team in baseball, but I like what is happening there. They have some smart guys in the front office and the team is getting incrementally better with each they make. They just brought up phenom George Springer and he's already provided a nice spark. The top four of the Houston lineup is actually pretty solid, with Altuve, Fowler, Castro and Springer. It drops of precipitously after that, but the young guys are improving with every at bat and the Astros should provide some value here and there in 2014. And it looks like this game is one of them. I like what Jarred Cosart brings to the mound, and he's much better than Chris Young. This game can go either way, so we'll gladly take the big price with Houston.  |
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04-23-14 | Texas Rangers v. Oakland A's -156 | 3-0 | Loss | -156 | 4 h 50 m | Show | |
 4-unit Play Take #966 Oakland A's over Texas Rangers (3:35pm EST) There are a couple of strong reasons to like the Oakland A's today and it all begins with their starting pitcher. Sonny Gray is quickly emerging as an elite hurler at the young age of just 24. He was fantastic in 12 regular season games last year and dazzled the Tigers in the playoffs. Coming into 2014, I wasn't sure he'd be able to handle the lofty expectations. But I was surely wrong, as he has exceeded them. Gray is 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA and he is still learning how to pitch. His stuff is so good than he can dominate while learning on the job - something very few major league pitchers can do. Today he'll face a beat up Texas Rangers team that is without a few key pieces. Adrian Beltre is the biggest loss, as he is the heart and soul of this team and is their best player on offense and defense. They're also without Jurickson Profar and Geovony Soto, and Shin-Soo Choo is banged up (status is questionable).Texas has kept it together with a 13-8 record thus far, but the A's are rolling right now. Oakland has the best mark in the AL by a pretty wide margin and they have played well versus Texas in recent years. Take the A's behind Gray in this one.  |
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04-23-14 | San Francisco Giants v. Colorado Rockies -101 | 12-10 | Loss | -101 | 3 h 27 m | Show | |
 3-unit Play Take #956 Colorado Rockies (-105) over San Francisco Giants (3:10pm EST)  |
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04-22-14 | Philadelphia Phillies v. Los Angeles Dodgers -173 | 3-2 | Loss | -173 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
 3-unit Play Take #914 Los Angeles Dodgers over Philadelphia Phillies (10:10pm EST)  |
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04-22-14 | San Francisco Giants -123 v. Colorado Rockies | 1-2 | Loss | -123 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
 3-unit Play Take #911 San Francisco Giants over Colorado Rockies (8:40pm EST) When you break down the strengths and weaknesses of the San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies, there are quite a few similarities. In fact, I have both teams rated about the same overall - both finishing in the 82-85 range of wins if they stay relatively healthy. But San Francisco is the favorite on the road in Coors Field today, but the price needs to be even higher. That's because Madison Bumgarner is on the hill for the Giants and he's one of the best pitchers in the NL. He doesn't get a ton of press, but Bumgarner will be in the Cy Young discussion at year's end. He's a mark of consistency and hasn't had a bad season since breaking in the big leagues in 2009. His pitches have been exploding so far this season and his strikeout rate has improved markedly thus far. Last season he struck out 8.9 batters per nine innings and this season he's up at 11.3. That's a good sign early on in the year. He'll face a good Rockies lineup, but one that is a little nicked up. Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki are both playing but they admittedly aren't 100%. There's a good chance one of them sits tonight, but even if not I like Bumgarner's chances the way he is throwing. The Rockies send lefty Franklin Morales to the hill. Morales was given his rotation spot back following the injury to Brett Anderson, but the Rockies prefer to have him out of the pen. Morales comes in with a 4.82 ERA in four appearances following a 2013 campaign where he checked in with a 4.62 ERA with the Red Sox. His stuff has never really been questioned, but he's had problems with consistency and control. For his career he's walking 4.5 batters per nine innings and that's not going to cut it at the big league level. He's also given up three home runs already this season, and the wind is blowing out at Coors today. Like I said, these teams are relatively even overall but when you factor in today's starting pitchers the Giants have a decided advantage. Take San Francisco here.  |
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04-22-14 | New York Yankees +104 v. Boston Red Sox | Top | 9-3 | Win | 104 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
 10-unit Play Take #923 New York Yankees over Boston Red Sox (7:10pm EST) Baseball's best rivalry gets underway in Fenway as the Red Sox host the Yankees on Tuesday night. This one will be even bigger than usual as Masahiro Tanaka makes his first start of his career against Boston. Tanaka has arguably been the best pitcher in the majors so far this season. He comes in 2-0 with a 2.05 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in three starts, but those numbers don't even do him justice. Tanaka has a ridiculous 28-2 K/BB ratio and his assortment of pitches has completely baffled the opposition. The Red Sox will surely be breaking down his first few outings with video, but Tanaka will still have the leg up for the first couple of times through the order. The Red Sox have also really struggled at the plate this season and are just 11th in the AL in runs scored through 19 games. Jon Lester goes for Boston and he's been pitching great as well. He's 2-2 with a 2.17 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in his four starts with a 29-4 K/BB ratio. Those numbers are definitely right up there with Tanaka, but the difference is that the Yankees will at least have a gameplan versus Lester based on a long history. New York also just welcomed back Mark Teixeira, and David Robertson is scheduled to come off the disabled list as well. Those are big boosts for a team that is already in first place in the AL East. The Red Sox, on the other hand, are still without Shane Victorino and Will Middlebrooks. The Yanks have the advantage on the mound today and are a bit healthier. More importantly, the price is right as Tanaka might not be an underdog for the rest of the season.  |
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04-21-14 | St. Louis Cardinals -108 v. New York Mets | 0-2 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
 4-unit Play Take #953 St. Louis Cardinals over New York Mets (7:10pm EST) The St. Louis Cardinals head to the Big Apple to take on the Mets in the first game of a four-game series. The line on this game seems awfully short given the disparity between these teams. The Cardinals are projected to win over 90 games and the Mets will struggle to come close to .500 this season. Clearly the Cardinals are the much better team, so I think it's a bad read by the market on today's starting pitchers that is keeping this line down. Tyler Lyons makes his first start of the season for St. Louis due to the injury to Joe Kelly. Lyons was up with the big league team last season and he wasn't too bad. His 4.75 ERA was deceiving as Lyons had a very good K/BB ratio and induced plenty of groundballs in his 12 appearances. He struggled with men on base, but that is mostly due to variance and not skill. The Cardinals think high enough of him to make these spot starts over a guy like Carlos Martinez, and that says a lot. Martinez is one of the most highly touted young pitchers in baseball, and most assumed that he would take over once Kelly went down. But Lyons gets the ball instead and I think he'll pitch well today against a Mets lineup that has plenty of easy outs. The Mets played a long 14-inning affair on Sunday and utilized six men out of their bullpen. That means the pressure will be on Mets starter Jenrry Mejia to go deep into the game. The youngster has looked sharp in his first three outings, but I'm not sold on Mejia just yet. He's walking 6.2 batters per nine innings, which is a huge red flag and he's also dealing with a thumb issue. He wasn't as highly-touted as some of the other Met starters, so we shouldn't expect huge numbers from him right away. We can still give the Mets a slight edge with the starting pitchers in this one, but the Cardinals more than make up for it with a better offense and bullpen. Take the Cards today at a bargain price.  |
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04-21-14 | Kansas City Royals v. Cleveland Indians -148 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
 3-unit Play Take #970 Cleveland Indians over Kansas City Royals (Monday, 7:05pm EST) Everything went right for the Kansas City Royals last season en route to their best season in over 20 years. They notched 86 wins and were in the playoff hunt up until the last couple of weeks of the season. Don't count on it again. The Royals are a solid team, but their bullpen isn't going to dominate like it did in 2013. They're not going to match the spectacular defensive effort, and they still have some learning to do at the plate. There are also a couple of weak spots in the starting rotation and one of those is today's starter Jeremy Guthrie. The veteran right-hander has slowly deteriorated over the last couple of seasons and I don't think he has the stuff to continue getting major league hitters out. He has a horrible 11-7 K/BB ratio through three starts and those were against the Astros, Rays and White Sox - not exactly world class offenses. The Indians send Zach McAllister to the hill for this one. He's off to a great start this season, going 2-0 with a 2.04 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in his first three starts. McAllister is a solid starter pitcher than is a little under the radar, so there's usually value to be had. Going up against an overrated Royals team, this is a perfect storm for a selection. Take the Indians at home for this one.  |
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04-20-14 | Cincinnati Reds -127 v. Chicago Cubs | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 48 m | Show | |
 3-unit Play Take #907 Cincinnati Reds over Chicago Cubs (2:20pm EST) They've been the butt of many jokes over the years, but for good reason. The Chicago Cubs have been the sorriest franchise in baseball for over 100 years and nothing has changed recently. In betting circles the results haven't been any different. Cubs backers have lost over 250 units betting them over the last 10 years and they currently have lost bettors five units so far in 2014 in just three weeks. There are spots where the Cubs do have value occasionally, but today is certainly not one of them. They go up against the Reds and Homer Bailey today in Wrigley Field. Bailey has been erratic to start the season, and that has kept the price down on this game. However, he's been extremely unfortunate as six of the 10 flyballs he has yielded have gone over the fence. That percentage will come way down and so will Bailey's ERA. His peripheral statistics are actually very good, so I'm still expecting a big year from the 27-year old right-hander. The Cubs are the second worst offense in the NL through the first three weeks, and that shouldn't come as a surprise. They don't have any impact bats in their lineup and they've been terrible with runners on base. They'll lean on Carlos Villanueva to keep things close today, and that's asking for a lot. Villanueva gave up nine earned runs in his last start over just three innings of work. He's obviously going to be better than that, but who knows where his confidence is at. If this game comes down to bullpens, Cincinnati has the decided advantage despite missing Aroldis Chapman and Jonathan Broxton. Time to make some money betting against the Cubs again; it's been a gold mine for years.  Best of Luck - Doc's Sports  |
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04-19-14 | Philadelphia Phillies v. Colorado Rockies -137 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
 3-unit Play Take #960 Colorado Rockies over Philadelphia Phillies (8:10pm EST) The Rockies pounded the Phillies 12-1 yesterday behind 18 hits. It wasn't surprising as we've been fading these Phillies quite a bit this season and it's paid off. Philadelphia just isn't a team that is all together under new manager Ryne Sandberg. They are a collection of veterans that know they are past their prime and seem to just be going through the motions. It won't be long before Ruben Amaro is picking up the phone and fielding offers for half the guys on his roster. Jordan Lyles will go for the Rockies today and he's been a pleasant surprise so far. Lyles came over in the trade of Dexter Fowler to the Astros, and he has been solid in each of his three outings. All of his peripheral statistics have improved over last season so far as the change of scenery looks to have made a positive change. Kyle Kendrick gets the ball for the Phils. He's off to a good start this season, but we've seen enough of Kendrick to know what he is. He's not going to blow hitters away, but he's good enough to usually keep his team in the game. I think the Rockies lineup is better than the last couple of seasons, mostly because this is the healthiest they have been in a long time. They also have played up the Coors Field advantage very well over their history, claiming the best home field advantage in baseball. Take the Rockies today.  |
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04-19-14 | Los Angeles Angels v. Detroit Tigers -155 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 1 h 60 m | Show | |
 4-unit Play Take #968 Detroit Tigers over Los Angeles Angels (1:05pm EST) Max Scherzer rolled the dice this off-season when he turned down a big contract from the Tigers that would have made him one of the highest paid pitchers in baseball. That certainly took some guts. But Scherzer now has the opportunity to go on the open market at the end of the season, so this could be his best season yet. He comes in with a 2.70 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in three starts, but has yet to earn a win. He has an impressive 25-5 K/BB ratio and has been working on keeping the ball down even more to induce groundballs. With an improved Tigers infield, that should be to his benefit. He goes up against an Angel's lineup that is missing a couple of pieces this afternoon. Josh Hamilton and Kole Calhoun are both on the disabled list for at least the next month. That's two-thirds of the Angels outfield and this team isn't particularly deep. They were still able to score 11 runs yesterday, but it's going to cost them considerably in the long run. C.J. Wilson will make the start today for Los Angeles. He's had a nice beginning to his season, but the Tigers have a lineup built to beat up southpaws. They only have one regular lefty in their lineup so Wilson is going to have his work cut out for himself. Both teams have horrible bullpens, but with these two pitchers on the mound it shouldn't come into play very much. This line is a tad low for Scherzer at home, so we're on Detroit here.  Best of Luck - Doc's Sports  |
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04-18-14 | Philadelphia Phillies v. Colorado Rockies -144 | 1-12 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
 3-unit Play Take #910 Colorado Rockies over Philadelphia Phillies (8:40pm EST)  |
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04-18-14 | Seattle Mariners v. Miami Marlins -120 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
 10-unit Play Take #930 Miami Marlins over Seattle Mariners (7:10pm EST) The Seattle Mariners don't visit Miami often, but they begin a three-game series with the Marlins on Friday night. The Mariners are clearly an improved ballclub from last season. They added Robinson Cano and have several young pitchers on the rise that fans are excited about. But they are still a couple of pieces short and have some guys on the roster that are real head scratchers. One of those guys is today's starting pitcher Chris Young. The nearly 35-year old has been in and out baseball over the last few years and his stuff has diminished considerably. With all of the injuries to the Mariners rotation, they decided to take a shot on him. But they probably would have been better-served going with one of their young arms in the minors. Young throws in the mid-80's and relies heavily on good control to get his desired results. He looked decent in his first start, but don't be fooled as he was fortunate more of his batted balls didn't fall for hits. There's a reason Young has been cut by several teams over the last couple of seasons. Meanwhile, on the other side, Nate Eovaldi is coming into this own for the Miami Marlins. He had a nice breakthrough season in 2013 with a 3.39 ERA, and his stuff looks even better so far this year. In his first three starts, Eovaldi has a sensational 19-1 K/BB ratio and is doing a great job inducing ground balls. I expect him to be in the running for an All-Star nomination this season, and he should be able to dominate a weak Mariners lineup that only has one threat. Take Miami as our 10-unit Game of the Week.  |
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04-18-14 | Toronto Blue Jays +131 v. Cleveland Indians | 3-2 | Win | 131 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
 3-unit Play Take #917 Toronto Blue Jays over Cleveland Indians (7:05pm EST) If you've watched either of Justin Masterson's last two starts, you couldn't help but notice that something is off. He's walked eight batters over his those two outings and has given up six runs in each without making it to through the fifth inning. Even more concerning, his velocity is down almost 4mph and that is a huge red flag. Masterson could be dealing with an injury that hasn't been made public yet, and that is enough for us to take a close look at the Jays today. Toronto is 8-8 on the season so far after getting swept in a doubleheader versus the Twins yesterday. But I think they're flying a bit under the radar in the AL East after a miserable season in 2013. Most experts picked this Jays team to win the AL East at the beginning of last season, and they have virtually the same roster in 2014 where they are now being picked for last place. Drew Hutchison pitches for them today and I like what I've seen from him so far. In three starts he's sporting a 3.68 ERA and striking out 9.2 batters per nine innings. He's also faced three of the tougher lineups in the AL in the Orioles, Yankees and Rays. Hutchison is the better pitcher right now and this price is more than generous as a result. Take Toronto.  Best of Luck - Doc's Sports  |
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04-17-14 | Atlanta Braves -137 v. Philadelphia Phillies | 0-1 | Loss | -137 | 2 h 30 m | Show | |
 3-unit Play #951 Atlanta Braves over Philadelphia Phillies (1:05pm EST) Despite a wave of injuries in the spring, the Atlanta Braves are off to a quick 10-4 start to the season. I guess we shouldn't be surprised by anything this organization does, as they are seemingly always in contention with whatever roster they put together. This team looked a bit down on paper, but their pitching staff has stepped up in a huge way. They are currently first in the major leagues in starter's ERA at a miniscule 1.62. Julio Teheran even pitched a complete game shutout yesterday versus the Phils and youngster Alex Wood goes to the hill today. Wood was impressive last season with the Braves when he posted a 3.13 ERA in 31 appearances between the bullpen and rotation. This season he's off to a fantastic start with a 1.89 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in his first three starts. He'll face a Phillies team that seems to be missing its mojo this season. The Phillies is a team full of players past their prime and they know it. This will look like a different team by the trade deadline, as GM Ruben Amaro will surely be dealing away several veterans to start the rebuilding process. For now, they are just delaying the inevitable. A.J. Burnett starts today for Philadelphia and he has been atrocious in his three outings in 2014 despite what his ERA tells you. He's walked six batters in each of his last two outings and is walking nearly eight batters per nine innings. His strikeout rate is all the way down to 5.6 and he's now battling a groin problem. Burnett is a tough fellow, but it would have probably suited the Phils better to just put him on the disabled list. The Braves should tee off and get the victory in the process.  |
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04-17-14 | Cleveland Indians +148 v. Detroit Tigers | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 30 m | Show | |
 3-unit Play #961 Cleveland Indians over Detroit Tigers (1:05pm EST) We get a perfect storm of an underrated starting pitcher facing an overrated today in Detroit. Danny Salazar of the Indians has excellent stuff but has struggled at the outset of the 2014 campaign. In his first two starts Salazar has a 6.75 ERA and his control has been a bit shaky. However, he's striking out a whopping 13.5 batters per nine innings and that wipes out a lot of mistakes. I think Salazar will be a good pitcher to back in the underdog role this season because he will be hard to predict from start to start. He will dominate at times and struggle with walks at times too, but overall his stuff is amazing. Justin Verlander also knows something about having amazing stuff, but it's not quite as amazing as it used to be. The heavy workloads of the last few seasons have finally caught up with the big right-hander. Last season he was just 13-12 with a 3.46 ERA in 34 starts. Those are pretty good numbers for just about anyone else, but not Verlander. Despite a lower ERA so far in 2014, Verlander doesn't look as sharp as he's only striking out 5.6 batters per nine innings and he's not keeping the ball down as often. The betting markets are still pricing Verlander like he's one of the top pitchers in the game. He no longer is so we'll take the up and coming Salazar and the Indians here.  Best of Luck - Doc's Sports  |
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04-16-14 | Oakland A's v. Los Angeles Angels -113 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
 3-unit Play #928 Los Angeles Angels over Oakland A's (10:05pm EST) When the Los Angeles Angels acquired Tyler Skaggs, they had a vision in mind. They knew he had the potential, but he needed to make a few chances to realize it. So the Angels tinkered with his mechanics a bit and Skaggs started to see the light. He had a good spring has looked great in his first two outings in the regular season. But more importantly, he is throwing the ball a couple of miles per hour harder and he looks as confident as ever. The betting markets haven't quite adjusted for the new Skaggs yet, so we'll take advantage at these low prices. Play the Angels here.  |
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04-16-14 | Chicago Cubs (GM1) v. New York Yankees (GM1) -200 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 1 h 25 m | Show | |
 2-unit Play #932 New York Yankees over Chicago Cubs (1:05pm EST) There was a lot of hype surrounding Masahiro Tanaka before he came to the United States. There were several bidders for his services, but the Yankees knocked it out of the park when they gave him a deal that made him one of the top paid pitchers in the major leagues. It seemed a bit over the top at the time, and time will still tell if it was worth it, but so far Tanaka has lived up to all expectations plus some. He dominated hitters all throughout spring training and then followed that up with two superb performances in the regular season. In 14 innings of work, Tanaka has struck out 18 opposing batters and has only walked one. It's going to take the league some time to adjust to his smorgasbord of pitches, so expect Tanaka to dominate in the time being. Today's victim is the hapless Chicago Cubs. NL teams generally struggle playing in AL parks because they have to pull a hitter off their bench and insert him as designated hitter. This hurts the Cubs even more than most as they don't have anybody adequate on their bench to fill that role. But it probably won't matter as Tanaka should shut them down and make it easy for the Yankees offense. Jason Hammel pitches for the Cubs and he'll have to be close to perfect, which isn't going to happen. The price is big but it should be even bigger. Take the Yanks.  Best of Luck - Doc's Sports  |
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04-15-14 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Milwaukee Brewers -113 | 6-1 | Loss | -113 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
4-unit Play #958 Milwaukee Brewers (-120) over St. Louis Cardinals (8:10pm EST) The Milwaukee Brewers finally lost a game yesterday (4-0 to the Cardinals) after reeling off nine straight victories. But I look for them to bounce right back today against St. Louis as they face Shelby Miller. There's a reason Miller didn't pitch in the postseason last year. There's also a reason that the Cardinals were actively shopping him in the offseason. Something isn't quite right with Miller and the team is being tight-lipped about it. He's battled with minor injuries to his shoulder, elbow and hip, but there's something bigger going on that has really bogged Miller down. His numbers in the final month of the regular season in 2013 and the first couple of starts of this season have been downright awful. And that is on the heels of a fantastic first half last year. Whatever the problem, the potent Brewers lineup should be able to take advantage of it. Milwaukee should also get a good effort on the mound from Marco Estrada today. The 30-year old right-hander comes in with a 2.31 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in his first two starts. More impressively, both of those outings were on the road against quality lineups - the Red Sox and Phillies. I have Estrada reaching another level in 2014 and becoming a potential All-Star caliber pitcher. Milwaukee looks to start another winning streak today and I think they get the job done. |
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04-15-14 | Kansas City Royals -150 v. Houston Astros | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
4-unit Play #975 Kansas City Royals (-150) over Houston Astros (8:10pm EST) Rookie phenom Yordano Ventura makes his second start of the season today in Houston. The 22-year old fireballer has been clocked with the fastest fastball in the majors and was extremely impressive in his first outing versus the Rays. He went six shutout innings while allowing just two hits and no walks. It's going to take the league a while to adjust to the stuff that Ventura brings, so the Astros will be up against it today. They already have one of the worst lineups in the league and they strike out a ton. Only the White Sox have struck out more often in the AL, so Ventura should get to double digits in punch outs today. On the other side of the ledger is Lucas Harrell for Houston. Harrell quite honestly is one of the worst starting pitchers in all of baseball and should be working in the minor leagues. Last season he carried a 5.86 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in 36 appearances. So far in 2014, it's even worse. In two starts he has a robust 11.05 ERA and 2.73 WHIP and hasn't made it through the fifth inning. Those are probably the worst numbers you will ever see from a major league pitcher, so this is likely Harrell's last start in the rotation unless he completely turns things around today. Don't count on it, Kansas City should win this one in a laugher. |
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04-14-14 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Cincinnati Reds -122 | 7-7 | Push | 0 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
3-unit Play #906 Cincinnati Reds over Pittsburgh Pirates (7:10pm EST) The Cincinnati Reds host the Pittsburgh Pirates in the first of three games on Monday night. Both teams are off to a slow start this season with the Reds at 4-8 and the Pirates at 6-6. The Reds have had lots of problems plating runs, but they busted out with 12 runs yesterday against the Rays. That could be the breakthrough they needed to get things going finally. They'll go up against southpaw Wandy Rodriguez in this one. The 35-year old has had a nice career, but he's shown some signs of wearing down over the last year or so and I'm not sure he is someone you can count on in every start. The Reds go with Homer Bailey, who is entering his prime at nearly 28 years old. Bailey had the best year of his career in 2013 and signed a big contract in the off-season as a reward. The Reds think he has ace potential and they could be right. Bailey should continue to get better and I look for more consistency this season. The Pirates lineup isn't particularly intimidating and they won't get career year kind of production from as many guys as they did last year. The Reds are the better overall team and the price is right here at home.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-13-14 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Milwaukee Brewers -113 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 2 h 20 m | Show | |
3-unit Play #956 Milwaukee Brewers over Pittsburgh Pirates (2:10pm EST) The Milwaukee Brewers are the hottest team in baseball right now, reeling off eight straight victories en route to a 9-2 record. They also hold the best run differential in the sport at +25 runs. But still, they aren't getting enough respect by the betting public. Milwaukee is only a modest favorite in their home ballpark, where they've played very well over the last several years. Kyle Lohse goes for the Brew Crew today, and he might be part of the reason why this line is suppressed. Lohse comes into today off of two mediocre starts to begin the season against the Phillies and Braves. But one thing is for sure with Lohse, you pretty much know what you're going to get from him. He's a 35-year old veteran that is well-prepared for each start and rarely pitches so poorly that his team doesn't have a chance to win. His first two starts weren't great, but he only gave up three runs in each and came up with the win in his last one. He'll face a Pirates team that I think is going to have a hard time repeating what they accomplished last year. The Buccos won a ton of close games last season and stayed relatively healthy for the entire season. The rest of the NL will be ready for the Pirates this year and it's going to be tough for them to make the playoffs again. With the way the Brewers are playing right now they are the right side here.
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04-13-14 | Washington Nationals -126 v. Atlanta Braves | 2-10 | Loss | -126 | 2 h 43 m | Show | |
3-unit Play #953 Washington Nationals over Atlanta Braves (1:35pm EST) The Washington Nationals look to salvage a three-game series against the Atlanta Braves this afternoon in Turner Field. Both teams will have depleted lineups today due to injuries and rest, but the Nats have a huge edge on the mound in this one. Gio Gonzalez doesn't get much publicity as he plays third fiddle next to Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann, but he has ace-type stuff. Gio comes into today's game 2-0 with a 0.75 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in his first two outings. His stuff looks electric and his control has been pinpoint, so he should have a strong outing today against a weaker Braves lineup. Freddi Gonzalez continues to hit BJ Upton in the two hole for some reason, even though he's the probably the worst regular in the NL. The Braves are also sitting Evan Gattis and Dan Uggla today for rest. Aaron Harang goes for Atlanta today and he's due for some major regression. The 35-year old right-hander has put together back-to-back strong starts to the tune of a 0.71 ERA and 0.71 WHIP. However, he's been extremely fortunate as he's stranded 88.9% of baserunners and has a very low groundball rate of 28%. Those types of numbers always indicate regression, so Harang is due to get blasted here. The Nats have are going to be without Ryan Zimmerman and Wilson Ramos (possibly Jayson Werth as well), but they've also got the deeper overall team and the big edge on the mound. Take the Nats here.
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04-12-14 | Tampa Bay Rays -124 v. Cincinnati Reds | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 1 h 28 m | Show | |
4-unit Play #925 Tampa Bay Rays over Cincinnati Reds (1:10pm EST) David Price and the Tampa Bay Rays shut down the Cincinnati Reds on Friday night 2-1. They're back at it on Saturday afternoon, and it doesn't get much easier for the Reds. Alex Cobb takes the ball for the Rays and he's one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball. The 26-year old right-hander was 11-3 with a 2.76 ERA and 1.15 WHIP last season in 22 starts. It was a breakthrough year for Cobb and this season he looks just as sharp thus far against two pretty good lineups (Texas and Toronto). He'll face another tough opponent in the Reds today, but I think the Rays will be able to give him plenty of run support. That's because reliever Alfredo Simon will make his second start of the season today. Simon took Mat Latos' spot in the rotation and actually looked pretty good against the Mets. However, that was the Mets and this is the Rays. Simon has been a reliever in the past for a reason and I don't see him getting past five innings in this one. There are no easy outs on this Tampa team as they grind out every at bat from top to bottom. The Reds are also still without Aroldis Chapman, an injury that could play a big role if this one is tight late. Look for another result similar to yesterday, with the Rays on top.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-11-14 | New York Mets v. Los Angeles Angels -160 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
3-unit Play #978 Los Angeles Angels over New York Mets (10:05pm EST) This is a tough spot for the New York Mets as they travel cross country from Atlanta to Los Angeles to play tonight's game with no rest. They'll also go up against lefty Tyler Skaggs, who has looked really good this spring. The Angels worked with Skaggs to change his delivery and his velocity has increased substantially as a result. He got immediate results in his first start of the season as he went eight innings without allowing a run versus Houston. Skaggs also surrendered only four hits and a walk in that one to go along with five strikeouts. The Mets lineup is better than the Astros lineup but not by much, especially considering they will have to add a DH. National League teams aren't built to play with a DH and very few teams can plug someone in who can be productive. The Angels are down a man in Josh Hamilton, but they still have one of the better offenses in the AL and should get some good whacks against Dillon Gee tonight. Gee has struggled to open the season, with a 4.50 ERA in two home starts. His stuff has never intimidated anyone so he relies on his control to work hitters the way he wants to. The Angels have been at home waiting for the Mets after a day off and are the much better team overall. The line on this one is quite high, but we still see value with the Angels.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-11-14 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Milwaukee Brewers -107 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
3-unit Play #956 Milwaukee Brewers over Pittsburgh Pirates (8:10pm EST) We caught onto the Brewers early on this season and we've been rewarded. Milwaukee has won six straight games and currently has the best run differential in all of baseball at +22 runs. Their pitching has been the main reason, as everyone in the rotation and bullpen has come through in a big way. Today's starter Wily Peralta was impressive in Fenway against the Red Sox and his confidence should be sky high coming into this one. Francisco Liriano goes for the Pirates and he has looked pretty good in his first two outings. However, the Brew Crew hit southpaws hard last season and their lineup is built the same way this season. With the roll Milwaukee is on, I expect the offense to nick Liriano up pretty good. The Brewers are a great team at home and this price is very low. The play is Milwaukee.
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04-11-14 | Miami Marlins -119 v. Philadelphia Phillies | 3-6 | Loss | -119 | 7 h 29 m | Show | |
5-unit Play #951 Miami Marlins over Philadelphia Phillies (7:05pm EST) It didn't take long, but Jose Fernandez is already among the elite starting pitchers in the game at the age of just 21. The NL Rookie of the Year blew away opposing hitters last season to the tune of a 2.19 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 28 starts. He also struck out 9.8 batters per nine innings with an amazing fastball in the high 90's. So far in 2014, he looks even better. Fernandez is 2-0 with a miniscule 0.71 ERA and 0.79 WHIP while striking out 12.1 batters per nine innings. Those are super human numbers and there's no reason to believe that he can't keep it going. He'll face an aging Phillies team today that is off to a poor 3-6 start. That's no surprise as the Phils looked like a team that didn't want the season to start this spring. There is no chemistry under new manager Ryne Sandberg and there's really nothing to look forward to for this team. Newly acquired A.J. Burnett will take the mound in this one for Philadelphia. Burnett hasn't looked good at all in his first two starts. In 11.2 innings of work, he has eight walks and only six strikeouts. Miami doesn't have a potent lineup, but if Burnett is going to give them free passes they will find a way to score some runs. The Phils bullpen situation is also a mess, so if Burnett can't go deep into this one then there's a chance that the pen fails them. There just isn't anything good to say about this Phillies team right now and they face one of the best in the business today. Take Miami.
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04-10-14 | Cleveland Indians -123 v. Chicago White Sox | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -123 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
10-unit Play #917 Cleveland Indians over Chicago White Sox (8:10pm EST) There's a new trend in baseball over the last few years and it's not hard to spot. Young pitchers are starting to take over the game. Jose Fernandez, Chris Sale, Gerrit Cole, Michael Wacha, Chris Archer, Sonny Gray, Madison Bumgarner and Julio Teheran are just a few members of the 25-and-under club that are dominating major league hitters these days. But there's a new guy that you can add to that list - 24-year old Danny Salazar of the Indians. The right-hander was brilliant in his 10 starts last season, striking out 11.2 batters per nine innings and posting a 3.12 ERA. This will be his first full season and Cleveland is expecting him to produce like a #2 starter. But with the stuff that he has, he can be the ace of the Indians if he learns how to approach hitters. Today he'll get the White Sox, who were dead last in the AL last season in runs scored. Chicago made some nice moves in the offseason to bolster the offense, but they are still going to struggle to produce on a consistent basis. They are also traveling back across the country after finishing up a three-game series in Colorado yesterday. Going from that thin air and traveling to play a game nearly 2,000 miles the next day isn't easy. John Danks gets the ball for the Sox and he hasn't been the same since having shoulder surgery over a year ago. His velocity is down and his strikeout rate has fallen considerably from his earlier years. The Sox are hoping he can get them 200 innings with just average numbers, but that is going to be a stretch. The Indians are the better team, have the much better starting pitcher and the better bullpen. The line on this one is a bit too low, so we're on the Indians.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-09-14 | Baltimore Orioles v. New York Yankees -158 | 5-4 | Loss | -158 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
2-unit Play #972 New York Yankees over Baltimore Orioles (7:05pm EST) The price is high on this one, but playing the Yankees today is simply a play on Masahiro Tanaka. He's been dominating big league hitters all spring and that carried into the regular season in his last start where he baffled the Blue Jays. It's going to take a while for the league to catch up to Tanaka, so in the meantime we'll look to take advantage of prices that are a little bit too low. Take New York behind the Japanese sensation.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-09-14 | Milwaukee Brewers -121 v. Philadelphia Phillies | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
3-unit Play #955 Milwaukee Brewers over Philadelphia Phillies (7:05pm EST) The Milwaukee Brewers are making some noise early on in the 2014 season and the betting markets haven't fully caught on. Milwaukee is 5-2 including a very impressive sweep of the Red Sox in Fenway over the weekend. They have a very intimidating lineup that is good top to bottom and Ryan Braun is playing like a man possessed to prove all of the haters wrong. He hit three home runs yesterday and drove in seven runs en route to a 10-4 victory against the Phillies. They hook up again tonight as Matt Garza faces Roberto Hernandez. Garza fell into the laps of the Brewers in the offseason as several other teams were worried about his extensive injury history. But when he's healthy, he's one of the best pitchers in the NL. He looked very sharp against Atlanta in his first start of the season. Garza went eight innings with one earned run and seven strikeouts against just one walk. Hernandez has been an enigma for the last few seasons. He has pretty good peripherals including a great K/BB ratio and plenty of groundballs. However, he's been taken deep at an alarming rate and makes too many mistakes to hitters. My guess is that Hernandez will struggle to stay in the rotation for the whole season. He lacks consistency and confidence, and I can see his ballpark working against him. We cashed with the Brewers yesterday, and we'll look to do it again here.
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04-09-14 | Tampa Bay Rays -111 v. Kansas City Royals | 3-7 | Loss | -111 | 2 h 29 m | Show | |
3-unit Play #965 Tampa Bay Rays over Kansas City Royals (2:10pm EST) If you were making a list of the worst starters in the AL, Jeremy Guthrie would certainly be near the top. The 35-year old right-hander has had some good years in the past, but he's lost some of his edge and it could cost the Royals a playoff spot this season. Guthrie was lucky to keep his ERA in the low 4's last season mainly due to a very high strand rate. He pitched better with runners on base and that's simply not sustainable for a guy that only strikes out 4.7 batters per nine innings. The Tampa Bay Rays are a very intelligent team at the plate, and they will surely get some good swings on Guthrie in this one. Youngster Jake Odorizzi makes the start for Tampa as he faces the team that traded him away. Odorizzi added a new pitch this year (a hybrid splitter-changeup) that he learned from Alex Cobb, and the results have been great with it. He has excellent stuff overall and the Rays know how to develop young arms, so I'm confident that Odorizzi will succeed this season. Many are picking Tampa to represent the AL in the World Series this season and that's not a bad choice. They are a well-balanced team without any glaring weaknesses and they have the best manager in the game in Joe Maddon. The price on this game is small so we're on Tampa Bay.
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04-08-14 | Los Angeles Angels v. Seattle Mariners -113 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
3-unit Play #920 Seattle Mariners over Los Angeles Angels (10:10pm EST) The Seattle Mariners turned some heads with a sweep of the Los Angeles Angels to start the season and these two will hook up again tonight. Youngster James Paxton goes to the mound for Seattle and he's been impressive the entire spring. In his first start of the regular season, Paxton shut down the Angels allowing no runs in seven innings of work while striking out nine batters. It's going to be a big tougher on him facing the same team twice in a week, but Angels' starter Hector Santiago is in the same boat. Santiago had a lackluster performance and hasn't quite gotten accustomed to his new team yet. He'll face a Mariners lineup that is better than the pundits give them credit for. They were 2nd in the AL in home runs last season and added one of the best hitters in baseball in Robinson Cano. They're overall offensive numbers are depressed due to playing in Safeco Field, but the M's can definitely swing the bats. They have a great shot at winning this division. The Mariners aren't getting enough respect early on, so we'll take them at a very nice price at home here.
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04-08-14 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Chicago Cubs +108 | 7-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
3-unit Play #908 Chicago Cubs over Pittsburgh Pirates (8:05pm EST) The Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates meet again in Wrigley Field after opening the season with a three-game series in Pittsburgh. The Cubs really outplayed the Pirates in each of those three games, but were only able to get one win due to poor hitting with runners in scoring position. They lost each of the first two games by a single run in extra innings, and were just 1-27 with runners in scoring position in those games. If they just scratch out a few hits in those bats, they sweep the Pirates and everyone is looking at this team differently. The pitching matchup today is a rematch of the second game of the season, where both Edwin Jackson and Charlie Morton threw the ball well. Jackson is one of the more talented pitchers in the game, but has had a tough time putting it all together. He's very inconsistent, but that plays well in the underdog role where he could single-handedly win you a game with a dominating performance. One thing that I noticed with Morton's first start was that his velocity was down a bit from his normal levels. That generally is a warning sign, as the pitcher could be injured or suffering from some kind of dead arm. We'll keep an eye on that again today. I don't think this Pirates team is going to have the same magic as last season, as they are now the hunted. The Cubs are better than people think and I think there is some value with them today.
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04-08-14 | Milwaukee Brewers -104 v. Philadelphia Phillies | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 46 m | Show | |
4-unit Play #927 Milwaukee Brewers over Philadelphia Phillies (4:05pm EST) The Milwaukee Brewers are coming off a very impressive three-game sweep of the Boston Red Sox in Fenway Park. Their confidence level has to be super high after that, and now they head to Philadelphia to battle a Phillies team that has all kinds of issues. Philadelphia is an aging club that doesn't seem to be taking to new manager Ryne Sandberg just yet. There have been some unusual comments coming from the Phillies clubhouse and it doesn't feel like the team chemistry is anywhere close to where it needs to be. They also have one of the worst front offices in the MLB and the roster isn't configured to win as a result. The Brewers have one of the most dangerous lineups in the NL and their rotation is above average as well. Today's starter Kyle Lohse is a grinder and always puts up good numbers. He's a notch better than Philadelphia starter Kyle Kendrick, who has had an up-and-down career with the Phils. I'm not sure how the line on this game is close to even, as the Brewers have the better pitcher, a much better lineup and a better pen. We're on Milwaukee at a bargain price.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-07-14 | Oakland A's -145 v. Minnesota Twins | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 53 m | Show | |
4-unit Play #959 Oakland A's over Minnesota Twins (4:10pm EST) You can always count on the Oakland A's to get more out of their team than what it looks like on paper. Billy Beane continues to find undervalued commodities and plug them into roles where they become even more productive players. One of this year's finds was Scott Kazmir, who was signed after a strong comeback season with the Indians. He made 29 starts and posted a 4.04 ERA after missing two entire seasons in 2011 and 2012. But the A's think that he has the potential to be even better, especially considering that he has his velocity up to the mid-90's now. Kazmir dominated during spring training and looked very sharp in his first start of the regular season versus the Indians. He pitched 7.1 innings while allowing no runs and three hits without a walk. Today he gets a weak Twins lineup that features several guys that belong on the bench or in the minor leagues. Minnesota will have the worst offense in the AL unless they get career years out of half the players in their lineup. They were atrocious in the spring and the front office even made several comments about how bad several of the hitters had looked. That's not a good sign. Kevin Correia goes for the Twinkies and he is nothing to write home about. He has good control and manages to keep this ERA in the low 4's, but he's not the kind of guy that is going to win you a game by himself. The A's are better than the Twins in every facet of the game and should be a much bigger favorite today.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-06-14 | New York Yankees v. Toronto Blue Jays -115 | 6-4 | Loss | -115 | 1 h 14 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #920 Toronto Blue Jays (-115) over New York Yankees (1:05pm EST) If you watched CC Sabathia's first start of the season, you understand why Toronto is the right side in this one. Sabathia struggled mightily against the weak Astros lineup and couldn't locate any of his pitches. To make matters worse, his velocity is at the lowest point of his entire career as he can barely get it up above 90mph. There's a lot of mileage on that arm and I don't see him turning things around anytime soon. The Blue Jays lineup is much more potent than Houston's, so they are going to be licking their chops today. Drew Hutchison toes the rubber for the Jays, and he had a very good first start versus the Rays earlier this week. He didn't allow a single run in 5.1 innings of work while giving up just three hits. He had an excellent spring and definitely earned his spot in this rotation while he was competing against a handful of other candidates. He'll go up against an overrated Yankees lineup that is pretty good at the top, but is atrocious at the bottom. They're averaging just 2.8 runs per game so far. At first glance this line might be a bit surprising, but Toronto should actually be an even bigger favorite today. Our play is on the Jays.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-05-14 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Colorado Rockies -122 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #964 Colorado Rockies over Arizona Diamondbacks (8:10pm EST) The Colorado Rockies are a great sleeper team for 2014 as the Dodgers and Giants are hogging most of the attention in the NL West as usual. Despite a poor showing overall the last few years, the Rockies have actually been very good when healthy. Unfortunately for them, keeping their team intact has been quite the challenge. Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki are the team's top two players, and they've had trouble staying off the disabled list for large amounts of time. But they're both in the lineup now and the Rockies have surrounded them with some nice pieces in the lineup. I also really like how the starting rotation is coming together, led by today's starter Jorge De La Rosa. The 33-year old left-hander had a breakthrough season in 2013, going 16-6 with a 3.49 ERA in 30 starts. That's impressive given how bad this team was overall last season (just 74 wins) and the fact that half of his starts were at Coors Field. I like what I saw from him this spring and think he can build on last year's great performance in 2014. He'll go up against an Arizona Diamondbacks team that has gotten off to a rough start this season at just 1-6. The whole Australia trip may have adversely affected the team due to the lengthy travel, but the more pressing issue has been the pitching staff. With ace Patrick Corbin out, I don't think they can lean heavily on anyone in the rotation. They have a collection of arms that all feel like #3 or #4 starters, such as today's starter Brandon McCarthy. McCarthy wasn't right last year, with a 4.53 ERA, and he looked very lackluster in his first start of 2014. He may still be mentally affected by the line drive injury he had two seasons ago, or maybe it's mechanical. Colorado has one of the better home field advantage in baseball and they definitely have the better starting pitcher on the mound for this one. The price on this game seems awfully low, so we're on Colorado.
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04-04-14 | Texas Rangers v. Tampa Bay Rays -142 | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show | |
5-unit Play Take #924 Tampa Bay Rays over Texas Rangers (7:10pm EST) The Rangers suffered an avalanche of injuries in spring training, which meant they had to scramble to fill some of their new holes. Due to lack of depth, some of those fillers were less than desirable. Welcome, Joe Saunders. The 32-year old southpaw was looking for a job this spring and his phone finally rang when the Rangers suffered multiple injuries to their starting rotation in the spring. Saunders started 32 games for the Mariners last season, and it wasn't pretty. Despite pitching in an extreme pitcher's park, Saunders posted a 5.26 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. He's only a stopgap until Texas gets healthy, but needless to say the Rangers are going to have to give him plenty of run support to earn some wins while he is on the mound. Tampa Bay sends youngster Jake Odorizzi to the hill after he earned the final spot in the rotation in the last week of the spring. Odorizzi didn't have dominating numbers in the minors, but nearly every young pitcher that Tampa Bay has brought up over the last few seasons has performed well. They simply know how to develop young arms. I love backing this Rays team because they do all of the little things to win ballgames under manager Joe Maddon. They take good at bats, run the bases well and play great defense. They have a decided edge on the mound today and they've been one of the better teams at home under Maddon. The line on this game came in a bit lower than expected, so we'll play the Rays here as our Game.
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04-04-14 | New York Yankees -138 v. Toronto Blue Jays | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #921 New York Yankees over Toronto Blue Jays (7:05pm EST) The much heralded Masahiro Tanaka makes his major league debut today in Toronto. The Yankees spent big bucks on the Japanese import and are looking for him to make a big impact out of the gate. Tanaka has a good chance to do that as no one has seen his stuff up close and personal, and he features quite the arsenal of pitches. Case in point was spring training, where Tanaka was 2-0 with a 2.14 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in 21 innings. He also struck out 26 batters while walking only three. It doesn't get much better than that and he'll definitely have the advantage the first couple of times through the order against Toronto. The Jays are without shortstop Jose Reyes, who is a big sparkplug missing at the top of their lineup. They've only scored 11 runs in their first four games and I expect those hitting struggles to continue against Tanaka. The play is the Yankees.
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