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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-12-15 | San Diego Padres v. Texas Rangers -123 | 2-1 | Loss | -123 | 4 h 52 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #980 Texas Rangers over San Diego Padres (3:05pm EST) We've played the Rangers in the first two games of this series and should have had two wins (split instead). However, last night's game was well in hand until a blow up in the ninth by closer Shawn Tolleson. This poorly constructed Padres team is in a huge tailspin with a six of seven losses and there's just no end in sight. Tyson Ross will get the ball for San Diego in this one, and he's been mediocre at best with a 3.56 ERA. Considering he pitches half of his games in pitcher-friendly Petco, mediocre is probably being nice. Yovani Gallardo is going for the Rangers and he is one of the hottest pitchers in all of baseball. Over his last five starts, the veteran right-hander owns an impressive 0.84 ERA. He checks in with a 2.67 ERA on the season and has been a great addition to this Rangers team. Texas has the edge offensively in this one and they're at home. It's hard to understand why this line is so low. But we'll take advantage with a play on Texas. |
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07-12-15 | Washington Nationals v. Baltimore Orioles +104 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 21 m | Show | |
2-unit Play Take #976 Baltimore Orioles over Washington Nationals (1:35pm EST) If these teams switched leagues, I could easily see the Orioles with a healthy lead in a weak NL East division. I could also see the Nationals struggling just to keep up with the other teams in the challenging AL East. The fact is, these two teams are very similar overall despite the records, and I might even give a slight edge to the O's. Max Scherzer has obviously been a beast with the Nats this year and could very well capture the NL Cy Young. But he was very shaky in his last outing and couldn't make it past the fifth inning. Wei-Yin Chen, meanwhile, has been cruising along with a 2.82 ERA in 16 starts against some very tough opponents. The O's are the better team and I think they pull out the rubber game of this series as a home underdog. |
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07-11-15 | San Diego Padres v. Texas Rangers -110 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #980 Texas Rangers over San Diego Padres (8:05pm EST) The San Diego Padres were set up to fail by General Manager A.J. Preller, and the bottom has officially fallen out with the team dropping to ten games under the .500 mark coming into today's action. They've also dropped six straight games. Expect things to get even uglier in the second half, as the Pads may be sellers at the trade deadline. San Diego has the edge on the mound in Saturday's game in Arlington (James Shields over Colby Lewis), but I give the Rangers the check mark in every other area. Bad NL teams such as the Padres haven't fared well in AL parks this season, so that's another big advantage for Texas. Take the Rangers in this one. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-11-15 | Atlanta Braves v. Colorado Rockies -155 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show | |
2-unit Play Take #904 Colorado Rockies over Atlanta Braves (4:10pm EST) The Colorado Rockies are experiencing yet another tough season in 2015. And once again, you can put a lot of the blame on the pitching staff. But one guy the Rockies can usually count on in Coors Field is Saturday's starter Jorge De La Rosa. He's been terrific in the high altitude, as his groundball-inducing tendencies have served him well over his career. He'll take on an abysmal Braves lineup that is missing their only above average hitter in Freddie Freeman. Atlanta has really been a surprise this season as they've hovered around .500 for most of the season. But I think we'll see them tail off in the second half, as they'll be auditioning some young talent as they rebuild for the future. We're already seeing that a little bit from them, including today's starter Matt Wisler. The young right-hander was recently brought up and will be making his fifth start of the season. He has a modest 3.13 ERA, but he's only struck out 5.5 batters per nine innings with a subpar groundball rate. I think he's going to get worse before he gets better, so I expect him to take some lumps in Coors Field against a tough Rockies lineup. Take Colorado at home here. |
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07-10-15 | San Diego Padres v. Texas Rangers -132 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #980 Texas Rangers over San Diego Padres (8:05pm EST) If Padres fans are looking for someone to blame for their horrendous 39-48 record, it really comes down to one man - General Manager A.J. Preller. This was so poorly constructed that it never had a chance to be good. In all honesty, the Padres would have been better off if they just kept last year's roster in place and made a couple of small tweaks. But the major overhaul by Preller has given the team zero chance to compete, and now they will likely be sellers at the trade deadline. There's no reason to expect things to get any better in San Diego, so this is a team we'll be looking to fade often. They head to Texas to take on the Rangers in the first of three on Friday night. Bad NL clubs away from home haven't fared well against AL teams during interleague play. So it's somewhat surprising we see a line this low, especially considering that the Rangers are clearly the better team. Texas also gets the nod in the starting pitcher matchup, with Wandy Rodriguez and Ian Kennedy squaring off. Rodriguez has had a decent season given the park he pitches in, with a 5-4 record and a 4.23 ERA in 14 starts. Kennedy, on the other hand, pitches in the friendliest environment in baseball yet has posted a 4.84 ERA in 2015. It doesn't help that he has one of the worst defenses in baseball behind him. This line should be about 20 cents higher, so we'll take Texas to get the win here. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-10-15 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. New York Mets -133 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #956 New York Mets over Arizona Diamondbacks (7:10pm EST) Noah Syndergaard is a star in the making, but he certainly isn't getting priced like it yet. The Mets are at home playing against an inferior team, and yet the price is reflecting just a small edge on the mound. Syndergaard comes in with a 3.38 ERA and 1.16 WHIP while striking out 9.1 batters per nine innings. He's getting more and more confident in each start and that's scary given how effective he's pitched already. Chase Anderson had a nice start to his 2015 season, but things have fallen apart for him recently. Over his last three starts, the young righty has a 7.64 ERA with only nine strikeouts and six walks. The D-Backs have certainly exceeded expectations so far this season, but I don't think they can keep it up offensively. We'll see some regression from this team in the second half of the season. The Mets have also been amazing at home this season at 29-15 - the best mark in all of baseball. This is an easy handicap. Take the Mets today. |
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07-09-15 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Chicago White Sox -113 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 13 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #912 Chicago White Sox over Toronto Blue Jays (2:10pm EST) Jeff Samardzija's name is coming up in trade rumors lately and it's for good reason. After a very slow start to the 2015 campaign, Samardzija is once again pitching like an ace. Over his last five starts, the tall right-hander has a 3.00 ERA and 1.08 WHIP to go along with a strong 34-7 K-BB ratio. Samardzija has also thrown at least seven innings in each of those five outings. He'll have a tough matchup against the Blue Jays, but he does having one thing going for him. The Jays aren't nearly as good going up against right-handers, and they aren't as dangerous on the road either. The White Sox should also be able to supply Samardzija with plenty of run support tonight, as they go up against R.A. Dickey. The former Cy Young has really fallen off since joining Toronto a couple of years ago. He owns a hefty 5.02 ERA and 1.39 WHIP over 17 starts this season. His real problem has been his control, as Dickey is only striking out 5.3 batters per nine innings versus 3.5 walks. That just won't get it done at the big league level, especially considering the fact that Dickey gives up a ton of flyballs. Big edge for the Sox on the mound in this one, and they are at home. Value is definitely on the White Sox here. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-08-15 | Detroit Tigers v. Seattle Mariners -110 | 5-4 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 30 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #966 Seattle Mariners over Detroit Tigers (3:40pm EST) No man means more to his team than Miguel Cabrera does to the Detroit Tigers. You don't have to be a huge baseball fan to know that Cabrera has been one of the best hitters in baseball for the last decade. His presence alone is a factor in the lineup, so the fact that he's out for six weeks is going to make life in Detroit extremely tough. The Tigers weren't a great team to begin with, at just 42-41 entering this game. Anibal Sanchez is one of the reasons for the Tigers' struggles this season, as he owns a hefty 4.65 ERA and in 17 starts. His peripherals are stronger than that, but Sanchez just doesn't look comfortable on the mound this season. He may be battling a minor injury or experiencing some mechanical issues, but either way he's not right. J.A. Happ makes his 17th start of the season today. He comes in with a 3.93 ERA overall, but at home he's been a much better pitcher. Happ has one of the bigger home/road splits in baseball with a 2.08 ERA at home and a 5.59 ERA on the road. The Tigers lineup is dangerous, but it will be much easier to navigate without Cabrera in the middle of it. Seattle won in exciting walk off fashion last night, and I think some of that excitement and momentum will carry over into this game. Take the M's here. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-07-15 | Toronto Blue Jays -109 v. Chicago White Sox | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
5-unit Play Take #917 Toronto Blue Jays over Chicago White Sox (8:10pm EST) What the Toronto Blue Jays are doing offensively this season is nothing short of amazing. Not only do they lead the American League in runs scored, but they are nearly 80 runs ahead of the next closest team. The scary part is that they will probably get even better, as they are healthier now than they have been all season. Southpaw Jose Quintana of the White Sox will have the unenviable task of facing the Jays on Tuesday night. To make matters worse, the Jays have absolutely destroyed left-handed pitching this season. They are hitting .307 versus lefties with a .374 OBP and a .498 slugging percentage. Quintana is a smart pitcher, but there are just too many good hitters in the Toronto lineup to pitch around. Felix Doubront will make his first start in a Blue Jays uniform in this one. Doubront has been dominating in Triple-A, boasting a 2.44 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in nine starts. He's had a shaky career, but this might be his last chance to prove he belongs in the big leagues. He should get plenty of run support, so if Doubront can just get through five or six innings then Toronto should get the win. The White Sox have the worst offense in the American League, so that shouldn't be too much to ask. This line seems far too low. Take the Blue Jays tonight as our Game. |
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07-07-15 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Texas Rangers -149 | 4-2 | Loss | -149 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #928 Texas Rangers over Arizona Diamondbacks (8:05pm EST) On paper, this looks like a fairly even matchup. The Diamondbacks come into tonight's game at 40-42, while the Rangers are 41-42. But playing in different leagues, the comparison really isn't fair. Texas plays a much tougher schedule as the quality of play in the American League is just night and day compared to the National League. There really aren't any truly horrible teams in the American League. Every game is a tough one and there is terrific balance up and down. This game is in Arlington, and that's another big edge for the Rangers. First off, the D-Backs will be playing in a stadium that they aren't comfortable with. Second, the DH will be utilized in this game and Arizona doesn't really have a great extra bat to plug in. As for the pitching matchup, give Texas the check mark there. Robbie Ray goes for Arizona and he's been serviceable but nothing special. Yovani Gallardo gets the ball for the Rangers and he's currently in the midst of a 29.1 inning scoreless streak. Gallardo has really fit in well with this Texas ballclub and he's a fairly streaky type of pitcher. He's hot now and we'll count on him to keep it going and help Texas get the win today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-06-15 | Atlanta Braves v. Milwaukee Brewers -132 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -132 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #958 Milwaukee Brewers over Atlanta Braves (8:10pm EST) It wasn't a bad first half of the season for the Braves at 40-42. That's far better than most had projected before the season. But I expect a much different second half of the season in Atlanta. They have been aided by one of the easiest schedules up to this point, and they have won more than their share of tight games. The Braves are in rebuilding mode and their team knows it. That means we'll probably see a different focus with this team in the second half. Their best player, Freddie Freeman, is currently on the disabled and that's a huge loss for a team that has trouble offensively. The Brewers had an atrocious first two months of the season, but they have been playing much better recently. They've won eight straight games and have been a wrecking ball at the plate. During that stretch, the Brew Crew has averaged 7.3 runs per game and has scored at least four runs in every contest. Despite the big difference in ERAs, I give Milwaukee the edge on the mound in this one with Kyle Lohse over Matt Wisler. The Brewers are cranking on all cylinders right now and should keep the streak alive here. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-06-15 | Cincinnati Reds +129 v. Washington Nationals | 3-2 | Win | 129 | 8 h 12 m | Show | |
2-unit Play Take #951 Cincinnati Reds over Washington Nationals (7:05pm EST) After several strong seasons in a row, Doug Fister has seen his skills decline sharply in 2015. The 31-year old right-hander is just 3-4 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 10 starts this season. Fister's strikeout rate is down to just 4.5 per nine innings and he has seen a steady decline in his groundball rate all the way to 41%. Injuries may be part of the problem, but Fister certainly isn't someone you can count on anymore. The Washington defense certainly won't be doing him any favors, as they rank dead least in defensive efficiency in the National League. It's tough for a team to be very good without playing solid defense, so I'm not sure the Nats are going to be as successful as most think in the second half. The Reds will be sellers come the end of July, but they have played decent baseball this season. Their record isn't anything to write home about, but their underlying statistics are stronger - especially defensively. The young Anthony DeSclafani will take the mound on Monday night. He enters this one at 5-6 with a 3.68 ERA and is gaining more confident with each start. I give Cincinnati the edge on the mound in this one, and think this line should be about 10 cents lower overall. Take the value with Cincinnati. |
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07-05-15 | Los Angeles Angels -123 v. Texas Rangers | Top | 12-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #927 Los Angeles Angels over Texas Rangers (7:05pm EST) The Los Angeles Angels are finally finding their rhythm and that could be bad news for an AL West that is seemingly wide open at the moment. C.J Wilson takes the mound for them on Sunday against the Rangers. Texas has struggled against left-handed pitching this season, so Wilson should fare well. Colby Lewis toes the rubber for the Rangers and he's putting up mediocre numbers once again in 2015. Albert Pujols is the hottest hitter in baseball and has the Angels offense in a nice groove. They pounded the Rangers 13-0 on Saturday night and I expect some of that to carry over into Sunday's game. Take the Halos here. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-04-15 | Minnesota Twins v. Kansas City Royals -166 | 5-3 | Loss | -166 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #976 Kansas City Royals over Minnesota Twins (7:15pm EST) Once again we'll take the Royals over the Twins for the same reasons we have the last two days. Kansas City is a far superior team in every phase of the game and the market is setting their lines low simply because their starting pitchers are mediocre. Joe Blanton gets the ball in this one and he's certainly nothing special. But when you put the league's best defense behind him and a great bullpen backing him up in the late innings, all of a sudden Blanton can be a factor. Mike Pelfrey toes the rubber for Minnesota and he's really fallen off of late. Over his last four starts, Pelfrey has a whopping 8.85 ERA. The Twins have really fallen apart in the last few weeks after leading the way in the AL Central for the first two months. The Twins we are seeing now are the real Twins, so we'll continue to fade away. Take the Royals here. |
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07-04-15 | Seattle Mariners -127 v. Oakland A's | 0-2 | Loss | -127 | 4 h 27 m | Show | |
2-unit Play Take #973 Seattle Mariners over Oakland A's (4:05pm EST) Felix Hernandez gets the ball in this afternoon's game in Oakland. There's no need to go over his resume as he's having yet another great season as the ace of the Mariners. But I see value in this matchup more because of the Seattle offense, which is finally starting to wake up. Robinson Cano has found his hitting shoes and if he can get on base in front of their big boppers, the M's will do some serious damage. The A's are a good team on paper, but are missing something this season. Maybe the chemistry is off because of the high turnover in the offseason, or maybe their team is a little immature. Either way, the A's haven't been able to find ways to win like they have in the past. I smell a run coming for the Mariners and they are a team to be backing going forward. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-03-15 | Minnesota Twins v. Kansas City Royals -144 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #926 Kansas City Royals over Minnesota Twins (8:10pm EST) Jeremy Guthrie has a 5.68 ERA this season and most bettors won't touch him with a ten-foot pole. But sometimes those are places where the value is - on pitchers that have balky ERAs. We like the Royals today for several reasons. First off, Guthrie has had a terrible season but he has pitched a lot better of late. In five of his last six starts he has given up three runs or fewer. And during that span he has a respectable 23-6 K-BB ratio in 28.1 innings of work. He's also aided by the best defense in all of baseball, and has a great bullpen to back him up if the game is tight late. Remember that baseball is a team game and the starting pitcher actually doesn't control as much of it as you think. The Twins have really scuffled of late after leading the AL Central for the first two months of the season. They are just 12-18 over their last 30 games and seem to be reverting back to the team they were last season. Tommy Milone goes for the Twinkies today, and I've never been a big fan of his. He wouldn't be starting in most big league rotations, but luckily for him the Twins have a deficient rotation. Kansas City is the far superior team and should get the victory tonight. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-02-15 | Minnesota Twins v. Kansas City Royals -144 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -144 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #970 Kansas City Royals over Minnesota Twins (8:10pm EST) There couldn't be a better fit for Chris Young than the Kansas City Royals. The soft-tossing, pitch-to-contact style that Young has survived with plays right into the hands of the best defense in baseball. The Royals just love snagging grounders and chasing down fly balls, and they happen to rate as the best in the game at doing just that. Young doesn't have pretty peripheral numbers, but he comes in with a 2.71 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 69.2 innings of work. While he isn't likely to sustain numbers quite that good, Young will continue to flourish in a Royals uniform. He'll face a bad Minnesota Twins lineup that is 11th in the AL in OPS. The Twins are in a tailspin as they're 8-14 over their last 22 games overall. Everyone knew that they were playing over their heads during the first two months of the season, but this team is even worse than that. Minnesota is right there with the White Sox as the worst team in the American League when you starting breaking down all of the numbers. They have a bad starting rotation, a below average lineup and play horrible defense. Add it all up, and this team is going to continue to slide for the rest of the 2015 season. Take Kansas City at a very reasonable price today. |
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07-02-15 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Detroit Tigers +114 | 8-4 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 52 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #974 Detroit Tigers over Pittsburgh Pirates (1:05pm EST) We played the Tigers yesterday and the result wasn't pretty. The Pirates thumped them 9-3 as starter Alfredo Simon just didn't have his usual stuff. But that was just one game and we're coming back with the Tigers tonight for many of the same reasons we mentioned yesterday. Despite what the records say, the Tigers and Pirates are similarly-rated teams after you consider the league they play in and the strength of schedule. Pittsburgh sends left-hander Francisco Liriano to the hill in this one, and he's been very good of late. However, the Tigers absolutely murder left-handers and they'll be chomping at the bit after being held down the last couple of days. Rookie Kyle Ryan goes for Detroit and I've seen some improvement from him in each outing. He hasn't been able to put it all together in one start, but I think today might be that day. It's too hard to resist taking the Tigers as a home underdog today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-01-15 | Milwaukee Brewers -107 v. Philadelphia Phillies | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
2-unit Play Take #901 Milwaukee Brewers over Philadelphia Phillies (7:05pm EST) When you see a good chance to fade the Philadelphia Phillies, you have to take it. There just aren't many occasions when you're going to see their opponent laying such a short price like today. The Brewers have had a miserable season, but a lot of that has been the result of a bevy of injuries throughout the first half of the season. They are finally almost 100% healthy, and I expect them to play significantly better going forward. Kyle Lohse has had a horrible season thus far with a 6.28 ERA in 16 starts. But that's a deceiving mark, as he owns a 1.35 WHIP and his strikeout rate and walk rate are both better than last season when he posted a 3.54 ERA. His peripherals point to an ERA in the low 4's, so we should see some improvements from Lohse ahead. The Phils go with veteran Aaron Harang in this matchup. He's following his usual pattern of starting out hot and then fading fast. Harang has given up at least four earned runs in five straight outings and has a 7.28 ERA over that stretch. I think the Brewers keep that run going for Harang and they get the win today. |
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07-01-15 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Detroit Tigers -105 | 9-3 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #928 Detroit Tigers over Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05pm EST) The Pittsburgh Pirates have the better pitcher on the hill on Wednesday, but there are plenty of reasons to like Detroit in this one. First off, the American League has once again dominated the National League in interleague play this season. So while the Pirates have the better record coming in, it doesn't mean that they are the better team when you consider the league differences. The Pirates have actually had the easiest schedule in all of baseball so far in 2015, and that's an underrated aspect of handicapping baseball. The Tigers have also been very tough to beat at home over the last several years. In fact, no one has been better in the American League over the last five years. The Pirates also don't come to Comerica Park very often, so familiarity is an issue for them. The Tigers offense is probably going to be the toughest one that A.J. Burnett has seen this season, especially when you add in the DH component with Victor Martinez. He's been out of the Tigers lineup for a good chunk of the season, but is back and starting to find his rhythm. The Tigers also have a much better bullpen this season, including a dependable closer in Joakim Soria. The line on this game isn't too far off, but the Tigers do deserve to be a slightly higher favorite. Take Detroit. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-30-15 | New York Yankees v. Los Angeles Angels -128 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #970 Los Angeles Angels over New York Yankees (10:05pm EST) 24-year old Andrew Heaney will make just his second start of the season tonight for the Angels. He was a part of the trade that sent Howie Kendrick out of town, so the Angels are expecting Heaney to be a mainstay in the rotation. There is no question about his stuff. It's just a matter of him harnessing it and learning how to pitch to big league hitters. He was impressive in his first start against the Astros, giving up just one run and four hits in six innings of work. Heaney will likely have the leg up on his opponents the first time or two thru the order, so I expect a good effort tonight against the Yankees. New York is still without their leadoff man Jacoby Ellsbury, along with closer Andrew Miller. Those are two big pieces and it doesn't seem like it's been reflected enough in the line here. The Angels are also starting to play better after a slow start to the 2015 campaign. They've won five of seven, including a 4-1win over the Yankees last night. They'll go up against Ivan Nova, who is still trying to work himself back into a rhythm after missing the first 2+ months of the season rehabbing an injury. He didn't give up a run in his first outing back, but his stuff clearly wasn't there. He struck out just one batter in 6.2 innings against a weak Phillies lineup. Take the Angels to get the victory tonight. |
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06-30-15 | Minnesota Twins v. Cincinnati Reds -120 | 8-5 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
5-unit Play Take #974 Cincinnati Reds over Minnesota Twins (7:10pm EST) We've been fading the Twins quite a bit lately, and it's paying off. Minnesota is just 8-15 over their last 23 games, and most of their defeats haven't been close. This is the worst team in the American League disguised as a team that is four games above the .500 mark. They rate as one of the worst offensive units, don't have anyone they can count on in their rotation and play horrible defense. Phil Hughes was supposed to be the guy they could count on coming into this season, but he's taken a big step back after a career year in 2014. Hughes enters this one with a 4.20 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 15 starts. But what's most concerning is the huge drop off in his strikeout rate from 8.0 per nine innings last season to just 5.5 in 2015. The Reds lineup is not easy to navigate and pitching in Cincinnati is certainly no easy task, so Hughes could really struggle given his homerun tendencies. The Reds send youngster Anthony DeSclafani to the hill in this contest. I like what the right-hander has done in his first season with the Reds, carrying a nice 3.35 ERA into this game. He still has a lot to learn at the big league level, but DeSclafani looks like he could be a good one. The Reds have the better overall team and should be a much bigger favorite at home today. Take Cincinnati. |
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06-30-15 | Chicago White Sox +100 v. St. Louis Cardinals | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #975 Chicago White Sox over St. Louis Cardinals (8:10pm EST) The Cardinals are a much better team than the White Sox no matter how you slice it and dice it. They are a FAR better team. But this one is all about one guy - Chris Sale. Despite a rough outing last time out, nobody in baseball is throwing the ball better than the tall left-hander right now. Sale has recorded double-digit strikeouts in seven straight outings and has a ridiculous 85-8 K-BB ratio during that span. The Cardinals don't see Sale on a regular basis, so I expect him to continue dominating tonight. To make matters worse, St. Louis is short-handed with Matt Holliday and Matt Adams on the disabled list. They'll need a strong effort from Lance Lynn to stay in this game, but that's asking a lot from a guy that's been banged up. Lynn has been dealing with some forearm issues and his turn was skipped in the rotation a couple of times recently. We have to take Sale at the underdog price in this one. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-29-15 | Minnesota Twins v. Cincinnati Reds -155 | 7-11 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #916 Cincinnati Reds over Minnesota Twins (7:10pm EST) The Minnesota Twins played over their heads for the first couple months of the season, but they're finally coming back to the pack. Over their last 26 games, they are 10-16 and playing more like the team that won just 73 games last year. Minnesota starter Mike Pelfrey is also coming back down to earth after a nice start to the season. Over his last three starts, the 31-year old right-hander is 0-2 with a 5.89 ERA and 1.75 WHIP. The Reds send Mike Leake to the hill on the other side. Leake has pitched well this season and seems to be getting better in each start. Over his last three he is 2-0 with a 2.37 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. He also has one of the best defenses in baseball backing him up, which is an underrated aspect of this Cincinnati ballclub. I also give the Reds a little extra edge tonight due to the interleague advantages that the home teams usually have. Minnesota doesn't come to Cincinnati often, and they won't be able to utilize their designated hitter spot. Take the Reds in this one. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-27-15 | Minnesota Twins v. Milwaukee Brewers -122 | 5-2 | Loss | -122 | 3 h 18 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #930 Milwaukee Brewers over Minnesota Twins (2:10pm EST) The Brewers are another team looking more towards the future than the present. At 28-47, they have the worst record in all of baseball. But unlike the White Sox we mentioned above, I don't think this Brewers team is nearly as bad as they look. Milwaukee has been devastated by injuries this season, but they are finally getting healthy. Carlos Gomez returned to the lineup yesterday and he sparked the team in a 10-4 win over the Twins. Milwaukee will surely be unloading some veterans next month, but in the meantime I think they are a bit of an undervalued club. The pitching matchup in this one features two pitchers who are mediocre at best in Kyle Gibson and Matt Garza. I don't expect either hurler to pitch well, so the game is likely decided by the offenses and bullpens. The Brewers lineup is healthy and starting to produce - far superior to what the Twins can put out there. Milwaukee also has a significant advantage in the bullpen. All in all, the Brewers should be bigger favorites at home today despite what the records say. Take the Brew Crew. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-26-15 | Chicago White Sox v. Detroit Tigers -149 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #968 Detroit Tigers over Chicago White Sox (7:05pm EST) The Chicago White Sox have no shot in 2015 and I think the players on the team know it. They have made far too many mental errors this season and their lineup just has too many holes to make up for it. The starting pitching has a couple of bright spots, but the usually reliable Jose Quintana hasn't been as sharp as previous years. The southpaw is just 3-7 with a 3.92 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 14 starts this season. The White Sox fielders aren't doing their pitchers any favors either, as they rank at the very bottom in several defensive categories. The Tigers crush lefties, so Quintana is certainly going to have his hands full in this one. The Tigers go with Anibal Sanchez, who seems to be regaining his form after a slow start to the 2015 campaign. In his last three starts, Sanchez is 3-0 with a 1.14 ERA and 0.80 WHIP to go along with a 19-4 K-BB ratio. Detroit is the much better team and I think they get the victory tonight behind a red hot Sanchez. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-25-15 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Miami Marlins +106 | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
10-unit Play Take #914 Miami Marlins over St. Louis Cardinals (7:10pm EST) Lance Lynn is a solid pitcher for the Cardinals, but he's coming back from a forearm injury in this one. Forearm injuries are tricky and there were some question marks as to whether or not Lynn could make this start. He's going to give it a go, but I'd be surprised if he's very effective. He also won't likely go very deep into the game, which could expose some middle relievers from St. Louis. The Cardinals offense will probably need to provide plenty of support, but that's easier said than done with Matt Holliday and Matt Adams on the disabled list. Miami sends veteran Dan Haren to the hill, and you know what you get when he's on the mound. He'll keep his team in the game and give them a chance to win. The Marlins haven't had a good season, but they are playing better of late and are more talented than their record indicates. Take Miami as the home underdog here. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-24-15 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Colorado Rockies -140 | 8-7 | Loss | -140 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
7-unit Play Take #962 Colorado Rockies over Arizona Diamondbacks (8:40pm EST) It hasn't been a good season in Colorado as they come into today's action at 31-39 on the season overall. As usual, starting pitching has been one of the main issues for Colorado. The Rockies' starters have a collective 5.05 ERA this season, which ranks 14th in the National League. Today's starter David Hale comes in with a 5.28 ERA in five starts, but he's actually pitched much better than it appears. He has struck out 28 batters in 30.2 innings of work and has only issued a grand total of four walks. That's a great ratio and should lead to future success for the youngster. It's also noteworthy that four of Hale's five starts have come in Coors Field, which is the toughest venue in baseball to pitch in. He'll face a tough Arizona lineup, but one that is a bit overrated due to playing half of their games in an extreme hitter's ballpark. Allen Webster makes his third start of the season and the first two haven't been pretty. His ERA is 6.55 in those two starts and he has only six strikeouts in 11 innings versus eight walks. He wasn't any better in Triple-A, where he had an enormous 9.00 ERA in five starts. So it was a bit of a surprising call up by the Snakes. I fully expect the Rockies to tee off on Webster in Coors Field in this one. Take Colorado as our June Game. |
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06-24-15 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Miami Marlins +110 | 6-1 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #956 Miami Marlins over St. Louis Cardinals (7:10pm EST) The St. Louis Cardinals have the best record in all of baseball, but they're not the best team in baseball at the moment. They are missing some key guys due to injury including Adam Wainwright, Matt Adams and Matt Holliday. The Cards have dominated at home this season with a 26-7 mark. But tonight they are on the road in Miami, and St. Louis is just 20-17 away from home this season. Miami has been playing better baseball after a slow start to the 2015 campaign. The Fish are 10-10 over their last 20 games, which is a huge improvement after starting out at 20-32. Mat Latos gets the ball for this one and he's locating the strike zone much better over his last few starts. Over his last three outings, Latos has an impressive 24-6 K-BB ratio and has faced three pretty tough opponents in the Yankees, Rockies and Diamondbacks. The Cardinals lineup isn't nearly as good without Adams and Holliday, so I think Latos can work deep into this game and hold them at bay. Jaime Garcia goes for the Cardinals and he's been throwing the ball pretty well too. But one red flag with Garcia is his poor strikeout rate of 6.2 per nine innings. That's the lowest of his career and will need to improve if he wants to stay in the rotation. Miami is a home underdog for this game and I think that's a generous price. |
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06-24-15 | Chicago White Sox -138 v. Minnesota Twins | 1-6 | Loss | -138 | 1 h 46 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #969 Chicago White Sox over Minnesota Twins (1:10pm EST) Chris Sale is in a groove right now and is pitching better than he has in his young career. The tall left-hander has a scant 0.72 ERA and 0.62 WHIP over his last five starts. His K-BB ratio over that span is even more impressive at 65-6. You don't see guys this locked in very often, so the Minnesota Twins look to be in some trouble this afternoon. Minnesota has definitely overachieved this season, and we're starting to finally see them come back to the pack. The Twins are just 5-10 over their last 15 games. This is virtually the same roster that was just 73 games last season, so I wouldn't be surprised if they end up somewhere close to that by season's end. Sale is going to be too much for them today, so take the White Sox. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-23-15 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Tampa Bay Rays -158 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #920 Tampa Bay Rays over Toronto Blue Jays (7:10pm EST) This one is all about Chris Archer, who is virtually an auto-play right now. The 26-year old right-hander is 8-4 with a 2.18 ERA and 1.00 WHIP and has been the best pitcher in the American League thus far. His slider is the most devastating pitch in baseball at the moment. He'll face a very tough Blue Jays offense today, but I don't think Archer will be intimidated one bit. He pitched against Toronto twice this season and hasn't given up a run in 14 innings of work, while striking out 18 batters in 14 innings. That's very impressive against the best lineup in the league. This line is a bit higher than we usually like to play, but there's still value on the Rays here. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-22-15 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Tampa Bay Rays +116 | 8-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
2-unit Play Take #956 Tampa Bay Rays over Toronto Blue Jays (7:10pm EST) They are in first place in the AL East 70 games into the season, and they still can't get any respect. This isn't new for the Tampa Bay Rays, as they have always been the underdog. And most times, they've proven everyone wrong. This is a very good baseball team that has endured tons of injuries in 2015 and just keeps on chugging along. The starting rotation has been particularly devastated with injuries, but guys keep on stepping up and filling the holes. Today's starter Matt Andriese is one of those stopgaps, and he's been brilliant. He enters today's contest 2-1 with a 3.26 in nine games, including four starts. The Rays are known for developing young pitchers, so it's no surprise that a relative no name is pitching well upon being called up. He'll have his hands full tonight against the best offense in baseball - the Toronto Blue Jays. The Jays have been mashing lately, but a lot of that damage has come at home. They aren't as good on the road and the Rays have one of the best home field advantages in baseball over the last few seasons. Drew Hutchison takes the hill for Toronto. He has immense talent, but staying consistent has been the big problem for the young right-hander. He has a 5.33 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in 14 starts, but is 4-1 because of the great support he has received. These two teams are on par with one another overall and I think the pitching matchup is close to even as well. As a result, we'll gladly take the home underdog at this price. Go with the Rays today. |
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06-21-15 | Houston Astros v. Seattle Mariners -121 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -121 | 5 h 35 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #928 Seattle Mariners over Houston Astros (4:10pm EST) You can count on the Seattle Mariners making a big run at some point in the near future, and we might be seeing the beginning of it already. The M's have won three of four and are just too talented of a team not to get back into contention in the American League. Today's starter J.A. Happ has been really solid in his first season with the Mariners, and particularly so at home. He owns a scant 1.88 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 3.81 innings in Safeco Field this season. He'll go up against a dangerous Houston Astros lineup on Sunday afternoon, but one that will be missing their leader. Jose Altuve is the energizer at the top of the lineup and he has been nursing a hamstring injury for over a week now. It's doubtful he'll be in action on Sunday and if he is will probably be limited. The Astros send rookie right-hander Vincent Velasquez to the hill. Velasquez put up some great numbers in Double-A before being called up, but in looking at his first two starts he doesn't appear quite ready for the big leagues. He put up a 4.66 ERA against two bad offenses and has struggled with his control. He'll need some Triple-A seasoning to get become an effective major leaguer, and I'd be surprised if he's not there in the coming weeks. For now the Mariners can take advantage. Play Seattle. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-20-15 | Houston Astros v. Seattle Mariners +109 | 3-6 | Win | 109 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #978 Seattle Mariners over Houston Astros (10:10pm EST) After a rough start to the 2015 campaign, Seattle right-hander Taijuan Walker has finally found his rhythm. Over his last four starts, Walker is 3-1 with a 1.55 ERA and 0.86 WHIP to go along with a dominating 27-3 K-BB ratio. The Mariners as a team haven't played to their capabilities yet this season, but this is one of the most balanced rosters in baseball. They'll go against an Astros team that peaked early and looks to be a tad overrated right now. The same can be said of Houston right-hander Dallas Keuchel. His stock will never be higher with his 2.04 ERA, so we'll look to sell him in this spot. Take Seattle here. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-20-15 | New York Mets -107 v. Atlanta Braves | 4-6 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #953 New York Mets over Atlanta Braves (7:10pm EST) Noah Syndergaard isn't taking very long to come into his own. He has all of the tools to be a major league ace and his confidence is growing in every start. He comes in with a 3.76 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, but his peripheral statistics point to an ERA potential in the high two's. He's striking out 10.0 batters per nine innings and his walk rate is extremely low for a rookie at just 1.8 per nine. He'll get a weak Braves lineup that is likely without its best hitter for this one - Freddie Freeman. The Mets will need to do better than yesterday's one run to win this contest, but that's very doable against Atlanta right-hander Williams Perez. The young right-hander hasn't pitched as well as it appears, as Perez has been fortunate to maintain an 85% strand rate with a very low home run total as well. His 2.29 ERA isn't going to last much longer, so now's the time to take advantage. The Mets are the better team and have the much better pitcher on the mound for this one. Take New York at the small price. |
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06-19-15 | New York Mets -135 v. Atlanta Braves | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -135 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #907 New York Mets over Atlanta Braves (7:35pm EST) There aren't too many major league hurlers throwing the ball better than Jacob deGrom is right now for the Mets. Over his last six starts, deGrom is 4-0 with a 0.97 ERA and 0.67 WHIP. His K-BB ratio is equally as impressive at 53-5 during that span. That's being locked in and I don't think there's anything a weak Braves lineup is going to be able to do to stop deGrom from continuing his conquest of the National League. To make matters worse for Atlanta, Freddie Freeman is nursing a wrist injury and may be out of action for this one. Matt Wisler will make his big league debut for the Braves after spending the early part of the season in Triple-A. He wasn't particularly good in the minor leagues, so this promotion is a bit puzzling. In 12 starts, Wisler managed a 4.29 ERA and only struck out 6.8 batters per nine innings. Last season in Triple-A for the Padres, Wisler had a robust 5.01 ERA in 22 starts. The Mets are missing a couple of key bats in their lineup, but that shouldn't matter tonight with the rookie Wisler out there. They also shouldn't need many runs with the way deGrom is pitching. Take the Mets here. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-18-15 | Tampa Bay Rays -120 v. Washington Nationals | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #961 Tampa Bay Rays over Washington Nationals (7:05pm EST) Tampa Bay is looking to take three of four games from the Washington Nationals this week and I think they have a great chance to do it. Chris Archer is hands down the hottest pitcher in baseball and the front-runner for the AL Cy Young early on. He's 7-4 with a 2.00 ERA and 0.94 WHIP to go along with an elite 11.3 strikeout rate. Believe it or not, he's been even better over the last month or so. His slider might be the best pitch in baseball and it's amazing to think that Archer is still getting better at age 26. The Nationals don't have much experience against Archer, so he'll certainly have the leg up today. Doug Fister gets the nod for the Nats in his first start back from the disabled list today. He has been dealing with a forearm issue, so there's no telling if there are going to be any lingering effects. The team will probably play it safe and limit his pitch count lower than usual, so that could mean the Nats bullpen gets exposed today. I like how this Rays team is defying all odds and continuing to win despite all of the major injuries they have suffered this season. They lead a tough AL East division and are 11-4 over their last 15 contests. Take the Rays today. |
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06-17-15 | San Francisco Giants v. Seattle Mariners -133 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #928 Seattle Mariners over San Francisco Giants (10:10pm EST) Great pitching matchup on Wednesday night as two of the very best in the game square off. Madison Bumgarner and Felix Hernandez meet up in Safeco Field in Seattle in what will be must see TV. I give Hernandez the slight edge overall, as he's posted better numbers throughout his career and in the 2015 season. I also think King Felix comes into tonight's game with a little extra motivation than usual. In his last start, he has the worst outing of his entire career giving up nine runs and eight hits in 0.1 innings of work. It doesn't get much worse than that, so I expect King Felix to come back with a vengeance against the Giants tonight. All great pitchers bounce back after a terrible outing, and he's one of the best. The M's have really been disappointing overall this season at 29-36 overall. The pieces are all there, so I think it's just a matter of this team finding their groove and playing a bit looser. Their stock is probably the lowest you'll see it all season, so now's the time to buy. For the Giants, they've kept their heads above water but aren't playing very good baseball either. Now Hunter Pence is back on the disabled list and he's the one of the leaders on the club. I think the Seattle is the better team, have the better pitcher and are playing at home against a team playing in unfamiliar territory. Take the M's here. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-16-15 | New York Yankees v. Miami Marlins +106 | Top | 2-12 | Win | 106 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #968 Miami Marlins over New York Yankees (7:10pm EST) The Miami Marlins struggled out of the gates this season, but they are playing their best ball of the season right now. The Fish have won 10 of 17 and their pitching has been the key during their run. Today's starter David Phelps has been an unexpected contributor in the rotation, but has filled in admirably. The offense is also picking it up with Giancarlo Stanton leading the league in home runs with 23. He's the most dangerous hitter in baseball and the guys around him have certainly benefitted. The Yankees have dropped four of five and just don't look like a contender for the long haul. Injuries are always going to surround this veteran team, and that's the case right now. Jacoby Ellsbury is disabled right now, along with closer Andrew Miller. Those are two important pieces that will be missed. The Marlins are home underdogs in this one and that seems generous. Take Miami. |
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06-15-15 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Los Angeles Angels -141 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -141 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
We have a big interleague mismatch on the slate here as the Los Angeles Angels host the Arizona Diamondbacks. Based on records alone, the line on this game seems about right or perhaps even a tad high. But as a handicapper, we're more worried about the future than we are about the past. The Diamondbacks aren't going to hover around the .500 mark very much longer, as there are plenty of holes on this team to drag them down. The pitching staff is the biggest problem and particularly the bullpen. There really isn't anyone you can really trust to be automatic and they've hinted at shuffling closers on several occasions. Today's starter Robbie Ray has been good in limited work, but I'm not sure he' s a good fit in Arizona with his extreme fly ball tendencies. Veteran Jered Weaver gets the call for the Halos today. It's been a rough season for the right-hander so far, but I think he figures out a way to right the ship. His stuff has declined, but his success has never really been about the quality of his stuff. I'm also confident that a struggling Los Angeles offense eventually figures it out. They are near the bottom in many of the AL hitting categories, but when you have guys like Mike Trout and Albert Pujols that shouldn't last much longer. Take the Angels here. |
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06-13-15 | Chicago White Sox v. Tampa Bay Rays -170 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 4 h 56 m | Show | |
Chris Archer is pitching about as well as you can right now. Over his last five starts he's 4-0 with a 0.79 ERA and 0.84 WHIP to go along with a 50-5 K-BB ratio. On the season Archer carries a meager 1.84 ERA and 0.95 WHIP, and would be the AL Cy Young if the season ended today. He'll face a terrible White Sox lineup on Saturday, so we should see continued dominance from Archer. The White Sox are 14th in the AL in runs scored despite playing half of their games in a supreme hitter's park - US Cellular Field. They'll need right-hander Jeff Samardzija to be at his very best today, but that's a tall order given how he's looked this season. Samardzija is having the worst season of his career with a 4.93 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 12 starts. In addition to the huge edge on the mound for Tampa, they also get the check mark for their superb defense and dependable bullpen - two areas where Chicago has been inept. Take the Rays in this spot. |
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06-13-15 | Minnesota Twins v. Texas Rangers -123 | Top | 7-11 | Win | 100 | 4 h 50 m | Show |
The Minnesota Twins may be in the beginning of a freefall. After owning the best record in the AL, they've dropped six of seven and starting to revert back to the team we're all familiar with. Mike Pelfrey gets the ball in this one. He's put together a fantastic season at 5-2 with a 2.28 ERA, but his peripheral numbers just don't support it. He's only striking out 4.6 batters per nine innings and is stranding 83% of his baserunners. Those are huge red flags and point to regression going forward. The Rangers are also having a surprising winning season at 31-29, but injuries are starting to curtail any efforts to make them a contender. No team has endured as many health issues as the Rangers over the last two years, but this team is still battling. Rookie Joey Gallo has added as a nice spark and the team is 16-6 over it last 22 games overall. They are better than the Twins in just about every phase of the game and should be higher favorites in this one. The play is Texas. |
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06-12-15 | Colorado Rockies v. Miami Marlins -137 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
If you're making a list of the worst free agent signings of the offseason, the Rockies signing of Kyle Kendrick looks pretty foolish right about now. The veteran right-hander could barely hold onto a job in Philadelphia, so it wasn't hard to figure out he was going to struggle pitching in Coors Field. But to be honest, Kendrick has been horrible wherever he has pitched this season. He comes in 2-7 with a 6.16 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in 12 starts and has seen his strikeout rate plummet to 4.4 per nine innings. At this point, the Rockies should probably look at other options, but after giving him $5.5 million in the offseason that's probably not going to happen. So we'll just look to take advantage and today is a great opportunity to do that. The Marlins are just small favorites at home in this one with youngster Jose Urena on the hill. I like what Urena has brought to the table from a stuff perspective and I think he has the chance to be a staple in the Marlins rotation going forward. I also think the Marlins are playing a bit looser now that new manager Dan Jennings has been here a few weeks. They're not going to be contenders, but I do think they have a lot of good young talent that's not going to just roll over. Take Miami. |
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06-11-15 | Texas Rangers v. Oakland A's -167 | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show | |
2-unit Play Take #914 Oakland A's over Texas Rangers (3:35pm EST) The first two starts of Chi Chi Gonzalez's big league career will certainly be memorable ones. He didn't allow a single run in either one and pitched a complete game shutout in his last effort. While it's an impressive accomplishment, what probably won't be remembered is how fortunate Gonzalez was. In his two starts he only struck out a grand total of four batters versus seven walks. The defense behind him also played superb in each outing and he easily could have imploded on a couple of occasions. Gonzalez will get lit up and don't be surprised if it's today's start versus the A's. Oakland is fourth in the AL in runs scored despite playing half of their games in a pitcher's park. Lefty Scott Kazmir gets the nod for the A's this afternoon and he's been solid this season with a 3.14 ERA in 11 starts. Oakland has the worst record in the AL, but don't let that fool you. They are basically even in the runs scored/allowed for the season, which means they should be close to a .500 team with normal luck. The betting markets are obviously taking some of this fact into account with the line on this game, but I still see a bit of value with the A's. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-10-15 | Kansas City Royals -107 v. Minnesota Twins | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #969 Kansas City Royals over Minnesota Twins (8:10pm EST) We cashed a ticket with the Royals last night and we'll go there again on Wednesday. Kansas City is miles better than Minnesota, but the fast start by the Twins has really distorted people's reality. The starting pitchers in this game, Edinson Volquez and Kyle Gibson, are rated similarly so the line on this game infers that the Royals are just slightly better than Minnesota. That clearly isn't the case as the Royals are better in every single phase of the game. Take Kansas City today. |
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06-09-15 | Kansas City Royals -103 v. Minnesota Twins | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #919 Kansas City Royals over Minnesota Twins (8:10pm EST) There isn't much not to like about this Kansas City Royals team. They play baseball the right way and do a lot of the little things that other teams miss the boat on. They run the bases well, play extraordinary defense and are good at moving runners along to set up scoring chances. Their bullpen been one of the best in the league for the last two seasons and their offense is much improved over last season. Their starting pitching is the one weak link, but they have can get by with one of the best defenses in the league backing them up. The Royals defense was built for guys like today's starter Chris Young. He's a contact pitcher that relies on his teammates, and it's worked beautifully so far. In 12 games this season, Young owns a 2.56 ERA and 0.99 WHIP between the bullpen and rotation. He's throwing harder than he has in years and his strikeout rate is up as a result. He'll get a Twins team with a weak lineup that has played over their respective heads in 2015. No team has been luckier than Minnesota has in 2015, so I expect some major regression from them going forward. They might be better than everyone thought they were coming into the season, but this isn't a team that is going to contend for the playoffs when it's all said and done. The Royals are the far better team and we get a steal of a price on them in this one. |
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06-07-15 | Milwaukee Brewers -103 v. Minnesota Twins | 0-2 | Loss | -103 | 3 h 5 m | Show | |
5-unit Play Take #929 Milwaukee Brewers at Minnesota Twins (2:10pm EST) The Twins are 12 games better than the Brewers right now, but Milwaukee is actually the better team here. The Twins have been extremely fortunate in close games and have several guys playing over their heads at the moment. The Brewers have been completely the opposite with guys playing way below their talent level and catching zero breaks so far in 2015. They've been really banged up all season long and are finally almost 100% healthy. Mike Fiers is a tough guy to pick up if you haven't seen him on the mound before, and that spells trouble for the Twins bats on Sunday. I'm not a fan of Mike Pelfrey of the Twins and think there is some serious regression in order for the veteran right-hander. The Brewers are going for the three-game sweep this afternoon, and I think they get it. Take Milwaukee as our Game. |
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06-06-15 | Chicago Cubs -115 v. Washington Nationals | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 1 h 2 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #951 Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals (12:05pm EST) Jason Hammel might have something to say about who the best pitcher on the Cubs is right now. Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta are having nice seasons, but Hammel is putting in his bid for the best hurler on the team. He comes into today's contest at 4-2 with a 2.82 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in 10 starts. His K-BB ratio is also amongst the best in baseball at 69-7 this season. The best part is that the Hammel isn't getting priced like Lester and Arrieta, so we get some value on him while he's pitching just as well as them. Today he gets a dangerous Washington Nationals lineup, but one that has been very inconsistent at the plate this season. They are far too dependent on what Bryce Harper does in the middle of the lineup, so if Hammel can keep Harper at bay he'll have success. The Nats go with rookie Joe Ross in today's matchup, as he makes his major league debut. Ross has put up some solid numbers in the minor leagues, but nothing that would knock your socks off. His timetable wasn't supposed to be this season, but injuries have forced his call up. The Cubs have one of the most patient lineups in all of baseball, and that could play well against a first time starter. Take Chicago in this one. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-05-15 | San Diego Padres v. Cincinnati Reds -109 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #906 Cincinnati Reds over San Diego Padres (7:10pm EST) We've pointed out on several occasions why the San Diego Padres won't be a contender unless they make more moves. They have a porous defense, a subpar infield and their rotation is overrated. They've been hovering around the .500 mark for most of the season and that's probably the ceiling for this team. Tyson Ross gets the ball for them today and he's been struggling with his control a bit this season. His walk rate is 30% higher than last season and he just doesn't look as comfortable on the mound. He'll go up against an underrated Reds lineup today. Cincinnati doesn't rate as one of the top offenses, but part of the reason is because they have been terrible with runners in scoring position. Once that normalizes, the Reds have the potential to be an upper echelon offense. Raisel Iglesias will go today and he's been better than his 5.11 ERA indicates. Take Cincinnati here. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-04-15 | Chicago Cubs +108 v. Washington Nationals | Top | 2-1 | Win | 108 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #951 Chicago Cubs over Washington Nationals (7:05pm EST) Big pitching edge for the Cubs today against the Nationals in D.C. Since coming to Chicago, Arrieta has emerged as one of the top five pitchers in the National League. But interestingly enough, he's still not getting priced like an elite pitcher. Maybe others need to see him dominate for longer to believe it, but Arrieta has made all of the adjustments and his numbers are amazing in a Cubs uniform. In his 35 starts over the last two seasons he has a 2.72 ERA and 1.02 WHIP to go along with a strong K-BB ratio. He'll go up against a Nationals lineup that has been pretty inconsistent this season. They rely far too heavily on Bryce Harper to fuel the offense and are lacking a guy to support him in the lineup. Gio Gonzalez takes the mound for Washington. He's struggled of late with a 6.64 ERA in his last four outings. Part of the problem has been the horrible defense behind him, which has cost them several runs during that stretch. The Nats have the lowest rated defense in the NL and I don't see that changing any time soon. That terrible defense is what's holding the Nats back from being a truly elite team. It's just too hard to win in today's baseball without a balanced overall team that can catch the ball. Take the Cubs and Arrieta as an underdog here. |
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06-03-15 | New York Yankees v. Seattle Mariners +103 | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 54 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #916 Seattle Mariners over New York Yankees (3:40 pm EST) Masahiro Tanaka returns after a forearm injury to make his first start since April 23rd. Most baseball analysts thought Tanaka should be shut down to have Tommy John surgery, so it will be interesting to see how he holds up the rest of the way. Either way, expect some rust on Tanaka's arm as he tries to get back into the groove. There certainly isn't any rust on Taijuan Walker's arm for the Mariners. The 22-year old flamethrower is coming off his best performance of the season. He pitched eight shutout innings against the Indians while allowing just two hits and no walks. This may be a sign of things to come for the young right-hander after he started off the season very shaky. The M's are playing much better baseball of late and I still think they have a great shot at winning the AL West. There aren't any major weaknesses on this team instead of maybe the ninth inning when Fernando Rodney gets in there. Take Seattle at home. |
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06-02-15 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. San Francisco Giants -105 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #964 San Francisco Giants over Pittsburgh Pirates (10:15pm EST) The San Francisco Giants enter tonight's contest on a red hot run after a slow start to the 2015 campaign. They are 21-9 over their last 30 games and have one of their main cogs back in Hunter Pence. One of the guys that kept the team afloat when they were struggling earlier on was today's starter Chris Heston. With the injury to Matt Cain, Heston's contributions over the first two months have been priceless. The 27-year old right-hander is 5-3 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 10 starts. He's coming off of one of his best performances of the season in his last outing, pitching 7.1 shutout innings against the Braves. The Pirates are starting to play better ball of late too, and they have a savior in their own right in starter A.J. Burnett. The veteran hurler is 5-1 with a 1.81 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 10 starts. But unlike Heston, I don't think Burnett has earned his numbers this season. He's been extremely fortunate to strand 84% of baserunners and his home run rate is ridiculously low at 0.28 per nine innings. Neither of those numbers is sustainable, so it's just a matter of time for Burnett's ERA to climb closer to the mid-3's level. The Pirates have struggled away from home at just 11-15 this season. The Giants, meanwhile, check in at 16-11 in AT&T Park this season. This line is far too low, so we'll take San Francisco. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-01-15 | New York Mets +106 v. San Diego Padres | Top | 7-0 | Win | 106 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #909 New York Mets over San Diego Padres (10:10pm EST) Great matchup in San Diego to start off the week as Jacob deGrom and Andrew Cashner duel it out. The Mets have simmered a bit after a red hot start to the 2015 season. They are just 8-12 in their last 20 contests and begin a seven-game road trip out West. But it's been a successful first two months overall - especially considering that they've been playing short-handed most of the way. The Padres have been sputtering all season long after making some huge waves in the offseason. They come in at 25-27 and haven't been able to put together more than three wins in a row at any point. As we've mentioned several times previously, this San Diego isn't constructed very well and I don't think they are going to be contenders unless they make more moves. Their defense is horrendous and they have one of the worst infields in baseball. I have much more faith in the Mets to stay in contention as they are better-rounded and have pitchers you can count on to keep you in the game. DeGrom is developing himself into one of the best in the NL. He won NL Rookie of the Year and recorded a 2.69 ERA last season. This year he checks in with a 2.71 ERA and has seemingly alluded any sophomore slump. Cashner has always been on verge of breaking through as an ace, but injuries have played a huge role in keeping him back. He has put up decent numbers this season, but remember that half of his outings are in Petco Park and he pitches in a friendly NL West. The Mets are the better team and have the better pitcher on the mound today. Value is on the Mets here. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-31-15 | Washington Nationals v. Cincinnati Reds +114 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 114 | 2 h 11 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #954 Cincinnati Reds over Washington Nationals (1:10pm EST) The Cincinnati Reds go for the 3-game sweep over the Washington Nationals on Sunday afternoon. This Reds team struggled coming into this series, but they've shown that they still have some nice pieces on their roster. Their lineup has the potential to be an above-average one, but the problem this season has been the pitching staff. The starting rotation has been largely inconsistent and the bullpen has been vulnerable to some huge blowups. I think that will be less of a concern today as right-hander Michael Lorenzen toes the rubber for the Reds. I like the stuff that the 23-year old possesses and he's posted a nice 3.12 in his six games this season. The bullpen has gotten better as the season has progressed and they still have one of the best in the ninth inning in Aroldis Chapman. The Nationals are playing better after a slow start, but I still don't think the chemistry is quite right on this team. There have been several instances of guys getting into it a little in the clubhouse, and Bryce Harper has been in the middle of a lot of it. Now that Harper is taking over as one of the best players in the game, it will be interesting to see how the team dynamics change. They have all of the talent in the world, but the Nationals have consistently underwhelmed. Take the Reds today as the home underdog as I think they can get the sweep. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-30-15 | Los Angeles Dodgers +134 v. St. Louis Cardinals | 5-1 | Win | 134 | 20 h 25 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #909 Los Angeles Dodgers over St. Louis Cardinals (7:15pm EST) There won't be many opportunities to play the Dodgers at this big of an underdog price, so we have to take a shot today. Outside of his last start, Carlos Frias has been great filling in for the Dodgers rotation. He gave up three earned runs or less in each of his first four starts and had two perfect relief appearances as well. But in his last game he yielded 10 earned runs to the Padres, which blew his ERA up to 5.74. Frias should bounce back against a Cardinals team that has struggled to score runs consistently this season. It's going to be even tougher after just losing Matt Adams for several months with a quad injury. Outfielder Matt Holiday is also banged up and could miss tonight's game as well. Michael Wacha gets the ball for the Cards in this one. He has a pretty 1.87 ERA, but his stuff hasn't been as electric as it was in his rookie season two years ago. His strikeout rate is way down (from 9.1 to 5.5) and his style of pitching is very different. He's still no cup of tea for opposing hitters, but the Dodgers have the most potent lineup in the league. Take Los Angeles at a nice underdog price. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-30-15 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Milwaukee Brewers -127 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -127 | 15 h 59 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #904 Milwaukee Brewers over Arizona Diamondbacks (4:10pm EST) The Brewers are far better than their record indicates and the same can be said of Saturday's starter Kyle Lohse. He checks in at 3-5 with a hefty 5.80 ERA, but all of his peripheral statistics are very close to what they have been for the last five years - a pitcher with an ERA in the high 3's. The Diamondbacks are exceeding expectations so far this season, but I can't see it continuing with so many weak spots in their rotation. Jeremy Hellickson is one of them and he'll get the ball on Saturday versus a capable Brewers lineup. Take Milwaukee to get the job done at home. |
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05-28-15 | Boston Red Sox -109 v. Texas Rangers | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #905 Boston Red Sox over Texas Rangers (8:05pm EST) If you're making a list of the luckiest pitchers so far in 2015, Texas starter Nick Martinez has to be near the very top of the list. He somehow holds a 1.96 ERA despite a 4.9 strikeout rate per nine innings against a 2.8 walk rate. He's also not particularly adept at inducing groundballs (43%) and doesn't have an exceptional defense behind him either. Add it up all up and Martinez's ERA should be in the upper 4's instead of below 2.00. As a result, there will be some rough days for Martinez ahead and I think the Red Sox can be the beneficiary of one of those days on Thursday. Boston hasn't hit like it is capable of, but I expect this offense to be one of the top in the AL before the season is over. They just have too many veterans who have proved they can produce, mixed in with some promising youngsters who have shown flashes of brilliance. Speaking of youngsters, Boston will bring up hurler Eduardo Rodriguez to make his first major league start in this one. The 22-year old southpaw has been dominating Triple-A hitters this season and he'll have the leg up against a Rangers team has never seen him before. Take the Red Sox in this one tonight. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-27-15 | Boston Red Sox -111 v. Minnesota Twins | 4-6 | Loss | -111 | 2 h 42 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #971 Boston Red Sox over Minnesota Twins (1:05pm EST) A quick look at the standings finds the Boston Red Sox in last place in the AL East and the Minnesota Twins in second place in the AL Central. That's not where these teams were projected before the season started, and I don't think it's where they'll finish either. The Twins have several players playing over their heads and they'll come back to earth eventually. This is basically the same roster that won just 72 games a year ago. New manager Paul Molitor is certainly doing a great job, but the newness of his arrival will wear off. Conversely, the Red Sox have a multitude of players playing well below their career marks. Boston has the potential to be the best lineup in baseball, but they find themselves ranked 11th in the American League in runs scored. That will certainly change and we want to be out in front before it happens. Rick Porcello goes up against Phil Hughes in today's contest. These pitchers are both recording subpar seasons and are rated similarly overall. Boston is just a small favorite based on records, but they would be favored by at least 30 cents more if these teams were both playing to their expectations. We'll take it as a sign of value and play the BoSox this afternoon. |
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05-26-15 | San Diego Padres v. Los Angeles Angels -162 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -162 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #930 Los Angeles Angels over San Diego Padres (10:05pm EST) The San Diego Padres made some big moves in the offseason and A.J. Preller received quite a bit of praise from onlookers. While Preller improved a few areas of his team, he also left some glaring weaknesses. The Padres aren't going to be a contender until they can improve their infield, their defense and their depth. The depth issue is a big one right now with Yonder Alonso and Wil Myers on the disabled list. Defensively, they've been one of the worst clubs in baseball - especially in the outfield. The infield is a collection of spare parts that hasn't proven much in the major leagues yet. The starting rotation has also been a bit shaky and Odrisamer Despaigne is one of the culprits. The young right-hander has been filling in for the injured Brandon Morrow, but it's difficult to understand why he's still in the rotation. The 28-year old enters today's action with a robust 6.11 ERA despite pitching half of his games in pitcher-friendly Petco Park. His low strikeout rate is a huge concern at just 4.1 per nine innings, and the Angels should be able to take advantage. Their bats are finally showing some signs of life after a slow start to the 2015 campaign. I also like what I've seen from right-hander Matt Shoemaker in his last few outings. Take the Halos to get the job done tonight. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-25-15 | San Diego Padres v. Los Angeles Angels -133 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #980 Los Angeles Angels over San Diego Padres (9:10pm EST) The San Diego Padres were supposed to be contenders this year. At least that's what everyone said after GM A.J. Preller made acquisition after acquisition to reshape the team. I wasn't as impressed with the moves as they created some major defensive liabilities and had nowhere near the depth they needed to contend. They find themselves at 21-24 thru 45 games and are probably fortunate that they aren't worse. Today's starter Tyson Ross has had some real problems with control this season. He's walking nearly 5.0 batters per nine innings and his ERA is over a run higher than last season. He'll have his hands full with a tough Angel's lineup on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball. The Halos haven't put up great numbers on the season, but they are coming around. Jered Weaver is also throwing the ball a ton better than he did earlier this season. He isn't throwing very hard, but he doesn't need to throw with much velocity to be effective. It's all about deception for Weaver and it's served him well throughout his career. The Padres don't make their way to Anaheim very often and that only adds to the advantage for the Angels tonight. Play the Angels as our pick. |
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05-25-15 | Colorado Rockies v. Cincinnati Reds -143 | 5-4 | Loss | -143 | 1 h 29 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #954 Cincinnati Reds over Colorado Rockies (1:10pm EST) Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-24-15 | Chicago Cubs -125 v. Arizona Diamondbacks | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -125 | 5 h 4 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #907 Chicago Cubs over Arizona Diamondbacks (4:10pm EST) With Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta ahead of him in the rotation, Jason Hammel doesn't get a ton of attention. But he's pitching at an All-Star level right now. Hammel is 3-1 with a 2.70 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in eight starts in 2015. The key to his success has been pinpoint control. He's walking just 1.0 batters per nine innings versus 8.3 strikeouts per nine. That's one of the best ratios in all of baseball and he's increased his groundball rate as well. He'll face a tough Diamondbacks lineup this afternoon, but Hammel has looked especially sharp in his last three outings. He has a 1.23 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in his last three starts to go along with a 22-4 K-BB ratio. Arizona will send right-hander Jeremy Hellickson to the mound to face a much improved Cubs lineup. Hellickson is still trying to get comfortable in a D-backs uniform as he enters with a 1-3 record and 5.52 ERA. The Cubs lineup just continues to get better as their youngsters are developing at a fast rate. This line is about 15 cents too low, so we'll take Chicago. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-23-15 | Chicago Cubs -122 v. Arizona Diamondbacks | 9-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show | |
2-unit Play Take #959 Chicago Cubs over Arizona Diamondbacks (10:10pm EST) Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-23-15 | Philadelphia Phillies +142 v. Washington Nationals | 8-1 | Win | 142 | 4 h 11 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #953 Philadelphia Phillies over Washington Nationals (4:05pm EST) The Philadelphia Phillies are actually playing some pretty good baseball right now and they have their ace Cole Hamels going on Saturday. Hamels has been sharp in his last three outings as he's 3-0 with a sparkling 1.69 ERA and 0.89 WHIP to go along with a 24-4 K-BB ratio. Washington sends the struggling Stephen Strasburg to the mound as he works through some mechanical issues following an ankle injury. Strasburg comes in with a hefty 5.98 ERA and his last couple of outings have been his shakiest of the season. This line is just too high given the pitching matchup and how well the Phillies have been playing. |
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05-22-15 | Oakland A's v. Tampa Bay Rays -137 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #920 Tampa Bay Rays over Oakland A's (7:10pm EST) I'm not sure what the Tampa Bay Rays need to do to get gain some respect. Most pundits had this team picked to finish dead last in the AL East before the season, but the Rays now find themselves all alone atop the AL East seven weeks into the season. They have also been doing with without a lot of important pieces that have been on the disabled list. Tampa has the best run differential in their division and is third in the AL behind just the Royals and Astros. Chris Archer gets the ball for them today and he hasn't garnered enough attention from the rest of baseball either. Archer is one of the elite pitchers in the AL and comes in with a 2.47 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in nine starts. His 10.2 strikeout rate is amongst the league leaders and his walk rate and groundball rate have both improved markedly from last season. Maybe most impressive, Archer has only given up one home run in 49 innings since his first start of the season. The Oakland A's will get the unenviable task of going up Archer tonight. The A's have really struggled to score runs lately and find themselves with the worst record in all of baseball at 14-29. They are clearly a much better record than their record indicates and will eventually turn things around. However, I don't expect the offense to turn things around against Archer. Lefty Scott Kazmir takes the hill for Oakland. He's been steady since joining the A's last season, but his last four starts haven't been pretty. He's 0-2 with a 5.64 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over those four outings and has given up four home runs. Tampa Bay can load up their lineup with right-handers and should be able to take advantage of a struggling southpaw. Take Tampa Bay as our 7-unit May Game. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-21-15 | Philadelphia Phillies v. Colorado Rockies -157 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 2 h 18 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #956 Colorado Rockies over Philadelphia Phillies (3:10pm EST) The Colorado Rockies are 3-15 in their last 18 games and find themselves out of contention in May once again. The Philadelphia Phillies have won seven of eight and are making people forget that they are in the middle of a major rebuild. So why are we recommending the Rockies today? One of the keys to winning at sports betting is to buy the bad teams at their lows and sell the hot teams at their highs. I just can't see either team's stock continuing in its current direction, so this is a great spot to take advantage at the extremes. Colorado has Jorge De La Rosa on the mound this afternoon, and he's been great in Coors Field throughout his career. His stuff plays well there especially since he keeps the ball down and avoids home runs. His ERA is currently sitting at 6.56, but De La Rosa has been pitching a lot better than that. He is striking out a career-high 10.0 batters per nine innings, which is nearly a 50% improvement over last season. He also is inducing more groundballs than ever. His problem has been pitching with runners on base, but that will improve and we'll see his ERA in the 4's before we know it. The Phils counter with right-hander Jerome Williams and he's been nothing special over the last few years. He's bounced around seemingly every season and has been nothing more than a stopgap starter. The Rockies have a strong lineup, but it just hasn't clicked like it should be yet. This could be a game where we see them explode as Williams hasn't fared well in Coors. We'll look to buck the trends today with the Rockies at home. |
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05-20-15 | Los Angeles Dodgers -117 v. San Francisco Giants | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -117 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #909 Los Angeles Dodgers over San Francisco Giants (10:15pm EST) Two veterans enjoying strong seasons meet up on Wednesday night. Brett Anderson gets the ball for the Dodgers and comes in with a 3.50 ERA and an impressive 65% groundball rate. He's also walking only 1.5 batters per nine innings this season. Anderson is right at his career ERA and there's no reason to believe he can't sustain this success as long as he stays healthy this season. The same can't be said of the Giants' Lincecum. He's doing it with smoke and mirrors so far in 2015. His 2.43 ERA isn't supported by his peripheral numbers including a hideous 4.2 walk rate per nine innings and his lowest strikeout rate of his career at just 7.1. It won't be long before Timmy has his ERA back in the 4's as his control isn't getting any better. The Dodgers own an advantage over the Giants in every area on the diamond, so this line is definitely a bit too low. Let's take the Dodgers in this one. |
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05-20-15 | Oakland A's +160 v. Houston Astros | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 35 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #911 Oakland A's over Houston Astros (2:10pm EST) Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-19-15 | Oakland A's -131 v. Houston Astros | 4-6 | Loss | -131 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #967 Oakland A's (-130) over Houston Astros (8:10pm EST)Â |
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05-19-15 | Cincinnati Reds +106 v. Kansas City Royals | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #979 Cincinnati Reds (+105) over Kansas City Royals (8:10pm EST) Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-19-15 | St. Louis Cardinals v. New York Mets +108 | 10-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #954 New York Mets over St. Louis Cardinals (7:10pm EST) The St. Louis Cardinals and New York Mets are both off to great starts this season. The Cardinals aren't much of a surprise, but many see the Mets as somewhat of a fluke right now. But that's simply not the case when you break down their numbers in every department. The Mets have one of the best starting rotations in the National League and their bullpen has been amazing as well. Their pen has limited opponents to a meager .192 batting average and they boast an impressive 95-33 K-BB ratio on the season. The lineup is also underrated. They are just 10th in the league in runs scored, but they play in a pitcher's park and have suffered some injuries early on. With the pitching that the Mets can put out there, they score plenty of runs to get the job done. That's good news for today's starter Jon Niese. The veteran left-hander boasts a 2.49 ERA in seven starts and he should have the edge against a Cardinals lineup that features a lot of left-handed bats. St. Louis goes with Michael Wacha, who has been a bit shaky so far in 2015. He hasn't looked as sharp since returning from injuries last season, as his strikeout rate indicates. Last season Wacha struck out 7.9 batters per nine innings. This season he's at just 5.4. He's also been extremely fortunate to strand 85% of baserunners this season, which has artificially reduced his ERA and his value to the team. The Mets are 16-4 at home this season - the best mark in all of baseball. Today they are an underdog at home and that just shouldn't be the case. Take New York here. |
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05-18-15 | St. Louis Cardinals v. New York Mets -124 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #902 New York Mets over St. Louis Cardinals (7:10pm EST) The New York Mets are coming off a pair of wins by scores of 5-1 and 14-1 against the Brewers. They sit atop the National League East and have the best home record in baseball at 15-4. That's where they will be today with their ace Matt Harvey taking the hill. Harvey is 5-1 with a 2.31 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in seven starts this season and is still getting better. The Cardinals counter with veteran John Lackey, who doesn't look as sharp as he did in Boston. Lackey's strikeout rate is down considerably and he's walking more batters than he did the last two seasons. The Cardinal bats have been quiet of late as they've scored a total of just 11 runs in their last five games. Somehow the Cardinals find themselves at 25-12 on the season, but I don't see them staying anywhere near that level. Take Harvey and the Mets at home today in a reasonable price range. |
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05-17-15 | Tampa Bay Rays -126 v. Minnesota Twins | Top | 11-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 57 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #969 Tampa Bay Rays over Minnesota Twins (2:05pm EST) Three strong forces are in our favor in today's matchup between the Tampa Bay Rays and Minnesota Twins. First off, Chris Archer is quietly developing into one of the elite pitchers in all of baseball. He comes in with a strong 2.59 ERA and 1.03 WHIP to go along with an impressive 10.7 strikeout rate per nine innings. It won't be long until Archer is priced like one of the top pitchers in baseball, so now is the time to pounce on him. The Rays are also being undervalued as a team this season because of their low expectations. They were picked by most to finish dead last in the AL East and have been above the .500 mark for the entire season. No organization is better at doing more with less than the Rays so this isn't a huge surprise to me. The Twins have been quite a story so far in 2015, but I'm not a believer that they can continue their success. None of their underlying numbers support their team record and this squad isn't much different than the team that won 72 games last season. They will eventually fall down to their usual spot in last place in time, so we should find value fading them in the meantime. All signs point to Archer and the Rays today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-16-15 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Houston Astros -120 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
10-unit Play Take #920 Houston Astros over Toronto Blue Jays (7:10pm EST) Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-16-15 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Philadelphia Phillies -103 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #906 Philadelphia Phillies over Arizona Diamondbacks (7:05pm EST) The last time Archie Bradley took the mound he took a 100+ mph liner in the face. It was an ugly scene and he's lucky that he just had to endure a short 15-day trip to the disabled list. Today he'll make his first start since that accident and nobody is going to blame the rookie if he has some jitters on the hill. Bradley is a highly-touted prospect who has gotten a ton of attention, so there is value to be had going against him in his rookie season until he starts to figure things out. The Phillies aren't a team that everyone is rushing out to bet on, so there are some places you can also find value betting on them. Jerome Williams isn't going to set the world on fire with his stuff, but he is experienced and knows how to keep major league hitters off balance. As bad as the Phillies are overall, they are still a respectable 10-10 at home this season. I think they get the best of Bradley and the Diamondbacks today. |
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05-15-15 | Tampa Bay Rays -102 v. Minnesota Twins | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #973 Tampa Bay Rays over Minnesota Twins (8:10pm EST) The Tampa Bay Rays were predicted to finish last place in the AL East by most publications and experts before the season started. Despite suffering through more injuries than any other team, the Rays find themselves at 20-16 thru the season's first six weeks. They are just one game behind the Yankees for first place and still can't get any respect in the betting markets for some reason. They recently lost Alex Cobb and Drew Smyly to season-ending injuries, but the team continues to march on. Jake Odorizzi has taken another step forward in his development and enters today's game with a stellar 2.09 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in seven starts. Like most other Rays' players, Odorizzi doesn't get a ton of attention so we get a little extra value on a guy that is developing into a potential ace. He'll face a Minnesota lineup on Friday that is overachieving early on. The Twins are off to a 19-16 start, but I'm just not buying in. This is the same team that lost 92 games last season without any major additions in 2015. Phil Hughes makes his eighth start of the season in this game and the first seven have been really disappointing overall. Hughes had a huge breakthrough year in 2014 but has taken a couple of steps back this season. His strikeout rate is down significantly and he's been more susceptible to the long ball. Tampa Bay has advantages over the Twins in every department, so we see great value at this price. Take the Rays as our Game of the Week. |
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05-14-15 | Boston Red Sox v. Seattle Mariners -122 | 2-1 | Loss | -122 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #920 Seattle Mariners over Boston Red Sox (10:10pm EST) Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-14-15 | Minnesota Twins v. Detroit Tigers -157 | 1-13 | Win | 100 | 2 h 44 m | Show | |
2-unit Play Take #912 Detroit Tigers over Minnesota Twins (1:05pm EST) The line on this game keeps rising, but it's for good reason. Mike Pelfrey goes for the Minnesota Twins today and he is due for some major regression. On the surface, it appears that Pelfrey is pitching well. He comes in 3-0 with a 2.62 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in his six starts. But a closer look shows a putrid 4.2 strikeout rate per nine innings, a 3.4 walk rate and a fortunate .250 BABIP and 82% strand rate. Those numbers all foreshadow imminent doom for Pelfrey. The Tigers offense is one of the most fearsome groups in the major leagues, and I expect a huge day for them at the plate today. That will make things easier for Tigers' starter Anibal Sanchez, who has been off of his game a bit lately. He's scuffled but I don't see any reason that Sanchez gets back on track against a mediocre Twins lineup. I'm not a believer in Minnesota's 19-15 start and believe that this team will eventually find themselves in the cellar of the AL Central. Take Detroit. |
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05-13-15 | Atlanta Braves v. Cincinnati Reds -125 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #956 Cincinnati Reds over Atlanta Braves (7:10pm EST) The Cincinnati Reds are just 16-17 to start the season, but there are plenty of reasons for optimism going forward. First off, the bullpen has been an absolute disaster with a 5.47 ERA this season - worst in the National League. They can only improve from there, and remember they have the best closer in the world in Aroldis Chapman. The offense has also sputtered despite a nice balanced group from top to bottom. Cincinnati is only 10th in the NL in runs scored - another area has room to improve. The starting pitching has been a nice backbone and the Reds have quite a bit of depth there. Raisel Iglesias gets the ball today and he has looked pretty good in Triple-A this season. The Braves have never seen him and that's a big advantage for Iglesias the first couple of times thru the order. Left-hander Eric Stults goes for the Braves in this one. I'm shocked that Stults is still in the league after he couldn't hack it in pitcher-friendly San Diego the last couple of years. The Braves are rebuilding, however, so Stults is likely to stick whether he continues to struggle or not. The records for these two clubs are similar now, but the Reds are likely to improve while the Braves are on the way down. Take Cincinnati at a reasonable price at home. |
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05-13-15 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Baltimore Orioles -120 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #964 Baltimore Orioles over Toronto Blue Jays (7:05pm EST) Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-12-15 | Miami Marlins v. Los Angeles Dodgers -149 | 1-11 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #910 Los Angeles Dodgers (-135) over Miami Marlins (10:10pm EST) Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-11-15 | New York Yankees v. Tampa Bay Rays -109 | 11-5 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #964 Tampa Bay Rays over New York Yankees (7:10pm EST) CC Sabathia just isn't the same. Once a dominating force, the 34-year old left-hander has lost a ton of velocity and had to reinvent himself on the mound. It hasn't gone well. In 2013, Sabathia posted a 4.78 ERA. Last year he checked in at 5.28. This season he owns a 5.45 ERA. With the amount of money he makes, Sabathia is going anywhere, but he certainly doesn't deserve a spot in the rotation for a contending team anymore. The Tampa Bay Rays will get a look at Sabathia tonight, and they should be able to stack a lineup full of right-handers. That's bad news for Sabathia as he's allowing right-handers to hit .331 against him this season. Alex Colome gets the ball for Tampa and he's been very good in his only two starts in 2015. He comes in with a 1.80 ERA and miniscule 0.70 WHIP. He obviously won't be able to sustain those kind of numbers, but Colome has great stuff and is going to be better than most have him pegged. This is a small price for the Rays to be laying at home, so we'll scoop them up here. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-09-15 | Chicago Cubs +100 v. Milwaukee Brewers | 4-12 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #957 Chicago Cubs (+100) over Milwaukee Brewers (7:10pm EST)Â |
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05-09-15 | Atlanta Braves +135 v. Washington Nationals | 6-8 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 29 m | Show | |
2-unit Play Take #951 Atlanta Braves (+135) over Washington Nationals (4:05pm EST) There are some huge red flags popping up for Doug Fister despite his 2.61 ERA this season. Fister is striking out just 4.1 batters per nine innings, his walk rate has doubled from last year and he isn't inducing as many groundballs as he has in the past. The Braves are playing much better than everyone expected and they have their ace Julio Teheran going on Saturday. The Nats offense still hasn't hit its stride without Anthony Rendon and Jayson Werth, so Teheran should be able to settle into a groove. Take the Braves at a nice underdog price here. |
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05-08-15 | New York Mets v. Philadelphia Phillies +120 | 1-3 | Win | 120 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #904 Philadelphia Phillies over New York Mets (7:05pm EST) Yes the Philadelphia Phillies are bad. But every team has value at a certain price, and getting Cole Hamels at home as a +120 underdog is certainly value. It definitely won't be easy as the Mets go with their ace Matt Harvey. But the Mets have cooled off a bit after their hot start, and they certainly aren't 100% right now. Their leader David Wright is on the disabled list, along with starting catcher Travis d'Arnaud and a couple of key relievers. The Phillies have had a miserable season thus far, but they are 6-6 at home (Mets are 5-7 on the road). Hamels will keep the Phils in it and this game likely comes down to the respective bullpens. Both teams have good bullpens, so getting the Philadelphia at home at this price is the way to go. |
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05-08-15 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Pittsburgh Pirates -118 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -118 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #906 Pittsburgh Pirates over St. Louis Cardinals (7:05pm EST) Big series for the Pirates as they host the Cardinals for three games starting on Friday night. Pittsburgh is off to a slow start and is now eight games behind the streaking Cardinals in the NL Central. It's still very early, but they can't afford to lose much more ground. Francisco Liriano gets the nod for Pittsburgh and he has owned the Cardinals over his career. St. Louis is batting .240 against Liriano in 192 at bats with just four home runs. Liriano comes into today with a sparking 1.95 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in five starts this season. He should have no problems keeping the Cards at bay and that puts extra pressure on Michael Wacha. I don't like what I've seen from Wacha since returning from his injury. His strikeouts are way down and he's been extremely fortunate on several fronts. His BABIP is just .229 and he is stranding 87% of baserunners. Those numbers will regress and his ERA will head up into the high 3's eventually. Good matchup for the Pirates today and that's where our money is. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-07-15 | Miami Marlins v. San Francisco Giants -122 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -122 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #960 San Francisco Giants over Miami Marlins (10:15pm EST) This is a really good spot for the Giants on Thursday night versus the Marlins. First off, Miami has to travel cross country after playing in Washington D.C. on Wednesday afternoon against the Nats. You can't get a much longer flight than that in this country, and usually teams get a day off prior to that kind of trip. Meanwhile, the Giants are in the middle of a ten-game homestand and have been playing great ball of late. San Francisco is 10-4 over their last 14 contests and their pitching has been extremely strong during that span. Tim Hudson will be responsible for keeping it going on Thursday and I like his chances. The Marlins are an aggressive bunch and Hudson is great at keeping those types of hitters off balance. He's a rock solid pitcher that you can always count on to keep you in the game, and this season is no different. Hudson has a 3.78 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in five starts, and four of those have been quality starts. The Marlins counter with right-hander Dan Haren in this matchup. Haren has been pretty good this season, but a lot of his success can be attributed to his eye-popping 97% strand rate. Given that his career mark is 72%, we know that is going to drop and his 2.70 ERA will rise as a result. The Giants are swinging the bats well and are patient enough to wait Haren out and get some good pitches to hit. The Giants are the better team overall, have the better pitcher on the mound and are at home. Throw in the tough travel spot for the Marlins and this price is far too low. Take San Francisco as Game. |
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05-07-15 | Houston Astros -104 v. Los Angeles Angels | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #971 Houston Astros over Los Angeles Angels (10:05pm EST) The Houston Astros just got swept by the Texas Rangers, but they are still a terrific 18-10 on the season. This is a fun team to watch and will continue to be successful as their young players learn the game. Their offense is extremely dynamic as they can beat you on the basepaths with speed, but can also blast home runs in bunches. The Astros travel to Anaheim to take on the Angels on Thursday night and aren't getting much respect in the betting markets considering they have the better pitcher on the hill. Collin McHugh hasn't gotten much attention over the last two years, but his numbers have been some of the best in baseball. Last season he was 11-9 with a 2.73 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. He's not quite at that level this season, but he's not far off either. McHugh is pitching behind Dallas Keuchel, and that has shadowed his performances to date. He'll face a struggling Halos lineup and I think he shows up big in this one. The Angels will go with left-hander Hector Santiago on Thursday. He's pitched well in his five starts with a 3.14 ERA, but don't expect it to last. Santiago has a low .268 BABIP and unsustainable 85% strand rate. Those numbers will regress and we'll see a spike in Santiago's ERA as a result. The Astros love facing southpaws, so this is a favorable spot for them. The Angels are struggling overall with a 13-15 record, and I don't see them improving on that today. Take the Astros. |
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05-06-15 | Tampa Bay Rays +115 v. Boston Red Sox | 5-3 | Win | 115 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #917 Tampa Bay Rays over Boston Red Sox (7:10pm EST) The Tampa Bay Rays have always found a way to exceed expectations no matter what kind of roster they have had. On paper, the Rays don't look like very much and most projected them to finish in the cellar of the AL East this season. But they've hung in there early on despite being hit by numerous injuries to their pitching staff and their everyday lineup. They are one game over .500 coming into today and face the Red Sox, who are one game below the .500 mark. Today's pitching matchup is very favorable for the Rays. They send right-hander Alex Colome to the hill for his second start of the season. Colome had a good spring and won a job in the rotation, only to suffer through a bout of pneumonia shortly thereafter. The 26-year old right-hander came back last week and looked impressive versus the Orioles. He pitched just five innings but they were near perfect. He didn't allow a run, yielded just three hits, no walks and six strikeouts. The Red Sox counter with the struggling Justin Masterson. The veteran really went off the tracks last season with a 5.88 ERA, and this season isn't too much better. Masterson carries a hefty 4.71 ERA thru five starts in 2015 and has been tinkering with his mechanics to get things straightened out. The Rays should be able to take advantage and put up a crooked number or two versus Masterson. Take Tampa Bay. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-05-15 | Seattle Mariners +128 v. Los Angeles Angels | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #977 Seattle Mariners over Los Angeles Angels (7:05pm EST) The Mariners and Angels have both struggled in the early going with sub .500 records. It's still early on, but these teams need to get it into gear soon before they dig themselves a hole that is too large to climb out of. I have more confidence that the M's will get things turned around before the Halos do. They have the better offense and should put up better bullpen numbers when it's all said and done. Today's starter for the Mariners is James Paxton. He's pitched much better than his 5.74 ERA indicates and that provides us with some value. His K-BB ratio is a healthy 26-8 and he has a 52% groundball rate. His problem has been stranding runners, as Paxton has one of the worst rates in baseball at just 57%. That will improve and the ERA will come down as a result. The Angels counter with Garret Richards in this one. While he has a 3.00 ERA, Richards' stuff hasn't looked as crisp since returning from his knee injury. He's walking an absurd 5.0 batters per nine innings and his strikeouts are down significantly. This line should be closer to even, so the value is on the Mariners tonight. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-05-15 | New York Yankees -128 v. Toronto Blue Jays | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #965 New York Yankees  over Toronto Blue Jays (7:05pm EST) |
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05-04-15 | Texas Rangers v. Houston Astros -187 | 2-1 | Loss | -187 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
2-unit Play Take #920 Houston Astros over Texas Rangers (8:10pm EST) The Houston Astros are on a roll with 10 straight wins and they send their hottest pitcher to the mound on Monday night. Dallas Keuchel as a tiny 0.73 ERA and 0.73 WHIP in his five starts. The Rangers Ross Detwiler is throwing about as worse as anyone in the big leagues with an 8.66 ERA and 2.21 WHIP. The Rangers have already endured a ton of injuries and it almost seems like they have already given up. Take the Astros to keep the streak going today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-04-15 | Chicago Cubs +135 v. St. Louis Cardinals | 9-10 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #907 Chicago Cubs over St. Louis Cardinals (8:10pm EST) The Chicago Cubs aren't quite at the level of the St. Louis Cardinals, but they are a lot closer than they have been in recent years. The kids are growing up and they now have one of the best young lineups in the game. The pitching staff has also been tremendous this season and Travis Wood has definitely been one of the main contributors. The southpaw is 2-1 with a 3.04 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in four starts this season and is coming off a fabulous outing against the Pirates. He struck out nine batters and walked none in seven innings, while allowing just two runs against the Pirates. The Cardinals counter with talented right-hander Carlos Martinez tonight. He's 3-0 with a 1.73 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. However, there is some regression in order based on his weaker peripheral statistics. For instance, Martinez currently owns a .203 BABIP, which is one of the lowest in the league. That will surely rise and with it so will his ERA and WHIP numbers. The Cardinals offense is one of the more overrated units in baseball. They are just 9th in runs scored in the NL this season, and they were 10th last year. They also may be without Matt Carpenter for this one, as he left the last game some dizziness. St. Louis is definitely the better team here, but they don't deserve to be this big of favorite. Take the Cubs today. |
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05-03-15 | Detroit Tigers -118 v. Kansas City Royals | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 2 h 26 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #973 Detroit Tigers over Kansas City Royals (2:10pm EST) The Kansas City Royals were able to advance to the World Series last season while the Tigers were sent home packing early in the postseason. The main reason was the Royals superior bullpen and outstanding defense. The Tigers are closing that gap in 2015. Shortstop Jose Iglesias is back from injury and has been a wizard on the diamond. Detroit also added Yoenis Cespedes and Anthony Gose, which improved the outfield defense significantly. The bullpen is in much better shape with Joakim Soria regaining his old form and dominating the ninth inning. Add in one of the best offenses in the game, and this Tigers team has far fewer holes than it did last season. |
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05-02-15 | Oakland A's -127 v. Texas Rangers | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -127 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #927 Oakland A's over Texas Rangers (8:05pm EST) If you're making a list of pitchers currently pitching over their heads, Nick Martinez has to be near the top of the list. He's managed a ridiculous 0.35 ERA despite only striking out 3.8 batters per nine innings and walking 2.8. Regression is in order and the A's offense brings Martinez back down to earth in this one. Drew Pomeranz gets the ball for Oakland and has pitched better than this 4.50 ERA indicates. The A's took the wind out of Texas last night, as they came back from a 5-0 deficit after scoring seven times in the eighth inning. With the Rangers awful start, their team morale can't be good after another deflating loss. Take the A's to grab the victory here. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-01-15 | Washington Nationals v. New York Mets -101 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #954 New York Mets over Washington Nationals (7:10pm EST) The best matchup today is right here as Max Scherzer and the Nationals go up against Matt Harvey and the Mets. Under normal conditions, this line would be pretty accurate. However, there is some cause for concern for Scherzer's thumb as he missed his regularly scheduled start a few days ago. The team is saying all the right things right now, but I'd be surprised if Scherzer is 100%. I'd be even more surprised if he throws more than 100 pitches. That means we could see a few different members of the Washington bullpen, which benefits the Mets. Offensively, both of these teams have scored 95 runs in 22 games this season. The Mets play better defense and their bullpen has been exceptional so far in 2015. Slight edge to the Mets in this one at home, so that's where we'll go with this selection. |
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04-30-15 | Toronto Blue Jays -119 v. Cleveland Indians | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #909 Toronto Blue Jays over Cleveland Indians (7:10pm EST) It doesn't get much worse than what we've seen from right-hander T.J. House this season. In three starts he is 0-3 with a 12.60 ERA and 2.60 WHIP to go along with a horrid 7-9 K-BB ratio. Cleveland has other options, so I have a feeling this will be House's last start in the rotation for now. The Blue Jays have a lineup loaded with good right-handed hitters and that spells trouble for the struggling House. The promising Daniel Norris gets the ball for the Jays. Norris will definitely have some bumps in the road during this rookie season, but he has tremendous stuff and he's been mostly effective in his four starts thus far. The Indians sports a lot of lefties in their everyday lineup, so they will likely struggle against him. This game is simply a matchup nightmare for Cleveland, so the value lies with Toronto today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-29-15 | Kansas City Royals v. Cleveland Indians -114 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #970 Cleveland Indians over Kansas City Royals (6:10pm EST) The Royals are 14-6 and the Indians are 6-13 to open the young season. But looking at team records in April to make betting decisions is an exercise in futility. We're dealing with a lot of small sample sizes and no team is as good or as bad as it looks right now. Danny Salazar is throwing the ball extremely well right now and we catch him at home laying a very small price due to the records these teams carry into the game. In his two big league starts in 2015 he is 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA and boasts an amazing 14.5 strikeout rate per innings. The Royals don't swing and miss very often, so this will definitely be a matchup of strengths. The Royals send right-hander Yordano Ventura to the hill. Ventura has been involved in several altercations already this season and doesn't exactly have his focus in the right direction. With all eyes on what Ventura will do next, I anticipate some struggles in the short-term. The Indians feature eight left-handed hitters in their lineup, so this is a really good matchup for them at home. With Salazar on the mound they won't need to score many to get a W. Take the Indians as our Game. |
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04-28-15 | Seattle Mariners -111 v. Texas Rangers | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #923 Seattle Mariners over Texas Rangers (8:05pm EST) The Seattle Mariners are off to a bit of a slow start at 8-11 this season. But that is good news for bettors, as there should be some really nice spots to grab some value on one of the best teams in baseball early on. Today is one of those opportunities as the M's take on the Rangers. The acquisition of J.A. Happ in the offseason didn't grab any headlines, but I think it was a great move by Seattle. Happ was really good in the second half of 2014 and fits in really well in Seattle given his flyball tendencies. So far he has been impressive with a 2.61 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in three starts. He's been pitching to contact a little more and that could help him control his walks and rely on a top flight defense behind him. The Rangers counter with southpaw Ross Detwiler, who has been absolutely horrific in his first three starts with his new team. He has a 10.95 ERA and 2.59 WHIP in 12.1 innings and is likely on the verge of losing his spot in the rotation. In his three outings, Detwiler has only struck out five batters against seven walks. He has an awful 31% groundball rate and has already allowed five home runs. He has easily been the worst pitcher in baseball so far, and we'll gladly lay this low price to fade him. Take the Mariners to win this one as our Game. |
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04-27-15 | San Francisco Giants v. Los Angeles Dodgers -143 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #964 Los Angeles Dodgers over San Francisco Giants (10:10pm EST) Tim Lincecum has a 2.00 ERA and 1.22 WHIP after this first three starts of the 2015 campaign. He looks sharp and has more confidence on the mound, but don't let a small sample size override what we've seen from him in the recent past. Over the last three seasons, Lincecum has posted a 5.18 ERA, 4.37 ERA and 4.74 ERA. His strikeouts have declined in each of the last three seasons and he's still walking a ton of batters. The regression this season is coming, and a solid Dodgers lineup should be able to exploit him. Brett Anderson gets the ball for Los Angeles in this one. He hasn't been able to stay very healthy over the last three years, but when he pitches he is great. He's healthy now and I expect Anderson to have an ERA in the low threes if he can stay off the disabled list. The Giants have really struggled to score runs this season and find themselves at 13th in the NL in runs scored. They really need to get Hunter Pence back in the lineup. He's not only a great catalyst on offense, but a great motivator and team leader. The Dodgers are the much better team at the moment and that's where we'll go today. |
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