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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-27-15 | Colorado Rockies v. Arizona Diamondbacks -123 | 5-4 | Loss | -123 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
2-unit Play Take #962 Arizona Diamondbacks over Colorado Rockies (9:40pm EST) I'm not very high on the Arizona Diamondbacks this season, but they are in a good spot tonight. First off, they have one of the more underrated starters in the National League going to the mound in Chase Anderson. The 27-year old right-hander has a 3.00 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in three starts in 2015. He was impressive in his rookie season last year and has improved by leaps and bounds this season with his control. It's still early, but all of Anderson's peripheral numbers last season pointed to improvement. He'll face a potent Rockies lineup tonight. However, the Rockies haven't been the same team on the road as they have been at home in recent years. In 2014, Colorado hit a robust .322 at home, which was tops in the NL. But on the road, it was a completely different story as they were at .228 - dead last in the NL. That's the Coors Field effect, and it's even greater when the Rockies leave Colorado for their first game on a road trip. That's the case tonight, so Anderson should be able to hold the Rockies in check. Take the D-backs at a very fair price here. |
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04-26-15 | Chicago Cubs -118 v. Cincinnati Reds | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 2 h 53 m | Show | |
10-unit Play Take #951 Chicago Cubs over Cincinnati Reds (1:10pm EST) Most serious baseball fans agree that the Chicago Cubs will be a force to be reckoned with in the future based on the young talent they have accumulated after several losing seasons. But this is already a very good club that should compete for a playoff spot in 2015. The promotions of Kris Bryant and Addison Russell have improved the roster in two of its weakest areas, and there really aren't any big deficiencies on the Cubs roster now. Jake Arrieta is quietly turning into the one of the best pitchers in the league. He enters today 2-1 with a 1.74 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in his first three starts. Don't be surprised if he's considered for the Cy Young when the 2015 season concludes. The Reds are stuck in that middle ground between rebuilding and competing for the playoffs right now. I see them more towards the former, and the quicker they realize that they aren't quite good enough to make a run at the postseason the better. Anthony DeSclafani has been a real bright spot in Cincinnati, but his peripherals don't support his meager 0.86 ERA. He's managed to strand a ridiculous 95% of base runners and only strikes out 6.9 batters per nine innings. The Cubs have the better team and better starter on the mound today, and that's where our money is. |
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04-26-15 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Tampa Bay Rays -135 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 2 h 52 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #918 Tampa Bay Ray over Toronto Blue Jays (1:10pm EST) Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-25-15 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Tampa Bay Rays -104 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #972 Tampa Bay Rays over Toronto Blue Jays (6:10pm EST) The Tampa Bay Rays are going to be better than most people think this season. They are almost always better than people think. The Rays are 9-8 on the young season despite being ravaged by injuries in the early going. They continue to get better as guys are removed from the disabled list, with James Loney being the latest removal. Their lineup is underrated and they have a strong defense and bullpen. Both of today's starting pitchers have been struggling mightily so far in 2015. Daniel Norris and Erasmo Ramirez wish they could have a do-over this year, but I think Ramirez could get things turned around quickly. The Rays are excellent at developing young arms and I am confident they can at least turn Ramirez into a decent back-of-the-rotation starter. Norris is struggling with a dead arm at the moment, so it's a bit surprising that he is making the start today. I wouldn't be surprised if he has a very short outing in this one, as the leash won't be long. The Rays scored 12 runs yesterday and are swinging the bats well. I think they get to Norris early and hold on for a win. |
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04-24-15 | Pittsburgh Pirates -122 v. Arizona Diamondbacks | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
5-unit Play Take #911 Pittsburgh Pirates over Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40pm EST) Gerrit Cole is finally coming into his own. The 24-year old right-hander has improved every area of his game and his numbers bear it out. His strikeout rate is up 15% to 10.6 per nine innings, his groundball rate is all the way up to 65% and he has a 3.18 ERA. There's room for even more improvement and Cole should be in the Cy Young race this season. He's in a good situation tonight going up against the Diamondbacks in Arizona. Chase Field is a home run park, but Cole keeps the ball down and has allowed only 19 homers in 272 innings over his career. The D-backs have had a nice start to the season, but I can't see them maintaining this level of performance. Josh Collmenter makes his fourth start of the 2015 campaign and has been a steady hurler for Arizona in his five seasons. He doesn't throw hard but keeps guys off balance with a nice mix of pitches. But his strikeout rate has plunged considerably so far and is down to just 3.4 batters per nine innings. That's a troubling sign going forward and will need to improve if he's going to be an asset for Arizona. This line isn't very far off, but I like the Pirates and Cole in this one. |
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04-23-15 | Kansas City Royals v. Chicago White Sox -150 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -150 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #974 Chicago White Sox over Kansas City Royals (8:10pm EST) The Kansas City Royals are coming off a World Series appearance that showed of their unique talents to the entire world. And now they're off to a wonderful 11-4start to the 2015 season. So if you're looking for an opportunity to sell high on the Royals, now is that time. The Royals are definitely a contender again this season, but I don't think they are in the elite category that they are being valued at currently. The starting rotation has some major question marks, starting right at the top with today's starter Yordano Ventura. He was fabulous in his rookie season but I'm predicting a sophomore slump and the early returns have him heading in that direction. Ventura comes in with a hefty 4.80 ERA in three starts and his seen his strikeout rate decrease by over 15%. Kansas City is also missing two of the three guys from its three-headed bullpen monster. Kelvin Herrera is suspended and closer Greg Holland is out with a shoulder injury. The White Sox send ace Chris Sale to the mound in today's game. He just continues to get better at the age of just 26. The Clayton Kershaw of the American League posted a 2.17 ERA last season and is at 2.25 in his two starts in 2015. The Sox are off to a slow start, but they have a nice lineup from top to bottom and made some big upgrades to the bullpen in the offseason. I see some value with the White Sox today. |
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04-23-15 | Miami Marlins -113 v. Philadelphia Phillies | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 1 h 16 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #953 Miami Marlins over Philadelphia Phillies (1:05pm EST) Dustin McGowan is back in the league with the Phillies and he's on the mound today against the Marlins. It hasn't been a good start to the season for the Fish, but a start against McGowan should help get them on track. The 33-year old right-hander has been working out of the bullpen for Philadelphia and hasn't looked very good. In seven innings of work, he has walked seven batters against only three strikeouts. He's managed to keep his ERA down by escaping a few jams, but his stuff isn't good enough to overcome the control issues. The Marlins will have to score a few extra with David Phelps on the hill for them, but I don't see as being a problem. Miami is the right side here. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-22-15 | Los Angeles Dodgers -137 v. San Francisco Giants | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -137 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #913 Los Angeles Dodgers over San Francisco Giants (10:15pm EST) Two of the best in the game go at it today as Clayton Kershaw and Madison Bumgarner get the ball. Both of them have struggled early on, but there's absolutely no question that they will get back on track sooner than later. But I'd bet on Kershaw getting back to form sooner than Bumgarner. Last season, Bumgarner threw 270 innings including the postseason, so we could be seeing some carry-over effect this season. The Giants also aren't hitting the ball at all right now, as they have average just 2.6 runs per game. The Dodgers are second in the NL in runs scored and have been playing much better defense than they have in the past. All in all, the Dodgers are playing a ton better right now and they have the best pitcher in the world on the hill. You won't see many Kershaw lines this low, so we'll take advantage today. |
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04-21-15 | Oakland A's +108 v. Los Angeles Angels | 1-14 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #975 Oakland A's over Los Angeles Angels (10:05pm EST) You have to like what Drew Pomeranz has done so far in an Oakland A's uniform. In limited work last season he put up a minuscule 2.35 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 20 games. So far in 2015, he has posted a 3.00 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in two starts. The A's have a way of turning young pitchers into pure gold, and it seems like Pomeranz is the next in line. Hector Santiago gets the ball for the Halos, and that should be good news for Oakland's bats. The A's project to have a good lineup versus left-handers and Santiago has really struggled to keep his job in the rotation for the last couple of years. Everyone is sleeping on the A's once again this season and I think that's a big mistake. They should be in the AL West race all season long. I like Oakland a lot at this price. |
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04-21-15 | Cleveland Indians -124 v. Chicago White Sox | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #973 Cleveland Indians over Chicago White Sox (8:10pm EST) This one is all about the starting pitching matchup. Carlos Carrasco is one of the budding aces in the American League after a huge breakthrough season in 2014. He had numbers that rivaled Clayton Kershaw in the second half of last season, and he looked good in his first outing of 2015. If he can stay healthy, I fully expect Carrasco to compete for the Cy Young this season. On the other side is one of the worst starting pitchers in all of baseball - Hector Noesi. It's amazing that the veteran right-hander still has a job after posting ERAs of 5.82, 6.59 and 4.75 in the last three seasons. He'll likely be replaced by rookie Carlos Rodon before long, but in the meantime we'll take this opportunity to fade Noesi. Take Cleveland in this one. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-20-15 | Houston Astros v. Seattle Mariners -158 | 7-5 | Loss | -158 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
2-unit Play Take #918 Seattle Mariners over Houston Astros (10:10pm EST) The Seattle Mariners are coming off of a thrilling come-from-behind 11-10 win over the Rangers on Sunday afternoon. They came back down five runs on two different occasions to win the game when Nelson Cruz hit an RBI single in the bottom of the ninth. It was the kind of win that can carry over to the next day, setting them up nicely for a visit from the Astros. This is a tough travel spot for the Stros as they come in from Houston to Seattle without a day off. The Astros just picked up back-to-back wins over the Angels, but they'll have a much tougher battle tonight against the Mariners. Hisashi Iwakuma gets the ball for Seattle against Asher Wojciechowski of the Astros. Neither starting pitcher has looked good early on, but with Iwakuma you know that he has the track record and will get things going again. Seattle is the superior team in every phase of the game, and I expect them to pick up an easy win here. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-19-15 | Baltimore Orioles +130 v. Boston Red Sox | 8-3 | Win | 130 | 2 h 56 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #969 Baltimore Orioles over Boston Red Sox (1:35pm EST) If there's one manager in baseball that you don't want to underestimate, it's Buck Showalter of the Orioles. No one has gotten more out of his team over the last few seasons than Showalter has. But once again, heading into the 2015 season the Orioles weren't given much of a chance to win the AL East by oddsmakers. The season win total was set at just 82 games; which is 14 games less than they won in 2014 when they easily won the division. There will be plenty of lines with value for Baltimore this season, and today is one of them. Miguel Gonzalez gets the ball for the O's and he's coming off one of the best starts of his entire career. Last time out he went seven innings versus the Yankees and gave up only one run, four hits and a walk. He also struck out 10 Yankee batters and picked up the win. The Red Sox counter with Rick Porcello, who's had two solid yet unspectacular starts this season. The price is right for the Orioles today. |
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04-18-15 | Colorado Rockies v. Los Angeles Dodgers -185 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #914 Los Angeles Dodgers over Colorado Rockies (9:10pm EST)Â |
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04-18-15 | Los Angeles Angels +107 v. Houston Astros | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #926 Houston Astros over Los Angeles Angels (7:10pm EST) It's hard to trust the 34-year old C.J. Wilson after a disastrous 2014 season in which he posted a 4.51 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. His strikeouts are also way down this season in his first two starts at just 3.95 per nine innings. The Astros offense hasn't been very good this season, but they do hit well against pitchers soft-tossers who can't accumulate strikeouts. Dallas Keuchel of the Astros is one of the best kept secrets in baseball, and he keeps on getting better and better. He has a miniscule 1.29 ERA in his first two starts and is inducing a crazy 74% groundball rate. Take the Astros as the small home favorite tonight. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-18-15 | Cincinnati Reds v. St. Louis Cardinals -145 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 3 h 51 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #904 St. Louis Cardinals over Cincinnati Reds (2:15pm EST) Carlos Martinez looked really good in his last start in Cincinnati against the Reds. He went six innings in that outing and allowed just two runs and four hits while striking out eight batters. He'll get another chance to dominate them again in St. Louis on Saturday afternoon. He'll be opposed by Homer Bailey, who is making his way back from a forearm injury. Pitchers returning from injury generally need a start or two until they get back into the groove. Considering that Bailey didn't have most of the spring to get into shape, he will be watched extremely close today by the Reds. I'd be surprised if they let him go more than five or six innings, which means the bullpen should get plenty of work today. Outside of Aroldis Chapman, the Reds pen has been disaster in the early going. The Cardinals are swinging the bats well and are off to a nice 6-3 start. They have the edge on the mound in Martinez, the better bullpen and the better batting lineup overall. This line seems awfully short considering the Cardinals are at home in Busch Stadium. Take St. Louis this afternoon. |
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04-17-15 | San Diego Padres v. Chicago Cubs -115 | 5-4 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 52 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #952 Chicago Cubs over San Diego Padres (2:20pm EST) The time has finally come for Kris Bryant of the Cubs. The much anticipated debut will come in Friday's game against the Padres. It will be extremely tough for the rookie to live up to all of the high expectations, but his impact on the lineup should be enormous for Chicago. He should immediately be inserted into the middle of the order and will be able to provide some good protection for Anthony Rizzo and Jorge Soler. Wrigley Field isn't a big ballpark, so Bryant should be able to do plenty of damage from the get go. James Shields will get the ball for San Diego and has looked good so far this season. Jason Hammel goes for the Cubs and he had an impressive outing in Coors Field last week. This a fairly even match up all the way around, but there will be a lot of energy in the ballpark today with the arrival of Bryant. Take the Cubs at the small price. |
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04-16-15 | Philadelphia Phillies +123 v. Washington Nationals | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
2-unit Play Take #903 Philadelphia Phillies over Washington Nationals (7:05pm EST) There aren't too many spots where I look to back the Philadelphia Phillies, but today presents such an opportunity. Cole Hamels is the only respectable pitcher in their starting rotation and he gets to face a Washington Nationals lineup that is missing some key pieces. Anthony Rendon and Denard Span are still on the disabled list and the Nats have had trouble scoring runs without them. They did break through yesterday with 10 runs against the Red Sox, but they'll have a much tougher time today versus Hamels. Doug Fister goes for Washington, and I didn't like what I saw from him in his first start of the season. While he went 6.1 innings without allowing a run, Fister only struck out one batter and wasn't really hitting his spots. Last year, Fister was fortunate to post a low 2.41 ERA despite a low 5.8 strikeout rate per nine innings. But that's tough to do in today's game, so I think Fister will take a step backwards this season. Hamels should outpitch him today, and the Phillies lineup isn't too much different from Washington's with the injuries they are experiencing. Take the Phils at the plus price. |
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04-15-15 | Detroit Tigers v. Pittsburgh Pirates -147 | 1-0 | Loss | -147 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
2-unit Play Take #978 Pittsburgh Pirates  over Detroit Tigers (7:05pm EST) Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-15-15 | Washington Nationals v. Boston Red Sox -117 | Top | 10-5 | Loss | -117 | 1 h 3 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #976 Boston Red Sox over Washington Nationals (1:35pm EST) We'll look to cash in all on three games of a potential sweep for the Boston Red Sox on Wednesday afternoon. We had Boston in the first two and they once again look like the better team in today's matchup versus the Nationals. Gio Gonzalez gets the ball for Washington today and he's going to have his work cut out for him. Boston is near the top in runs scored in the early going this season, and their lineup is built to hammer left-handers. What the Nationals are not built to do is to play in an American League stadium. They've had Clint Robinson in the DH spot for the first two games. He's not exactly a household name and has gone 2-for-9 in the series. The Nats are dealing with a few injuries right now and are nowhere near where they will be in a few weeks. Boston has started the season hot at 6-2 and has scored 17 runs in the first two games of this series. They won't let up tonight, so we'll roll with Boston again. |
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04-14-15 | Washington Nationals v. Boston Red Sox -122 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #922 Boston Red Sox over Washington Nationals (6:10pm EST) We'll go back to the well and fade the Washington Nationals once again today. The Nats just aren't 100% right now, and that is going to hurt them even more in interleague games. Jayson Werth came back yesterday, but they are still without Anthony Rendon and Denard Span. Stephen Strasburg takes the hill for Washington against Justin Masterson of Boston. On paper, this is a sizable edge for the Nats. However, Strasburg wasn't sharp in his first start and Masterson pitched a gem. Yes it's only one game, but current form is important for starting pitchers. The Red Sox hold a huge advantage with their superior starting lineup, and that's going to be the difference today. Take Boston as a small home favorite today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-13-15 | New York Yankees +105 v. Baltimore Orioles | 6-5 | Win | 105 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #967 New York Yankees over Baltimore Orioles (3:05pm EST) In watching Wei-Yin Chen's first start of the season last week against the Rays, I didn't like what I saw. He labored through 4.1 innings and didn't have his normal control. But even more troubling was a decrease in his normal velocity, which could be the precursor for some type of injury. Either way, it's not a good sign and that's one of the reasons I like the Yankees here. Michael Pineda gets the ball for New York and he is coming off a spectacular spring and solid first start of the season. In 19 innings of work this spring he posted a 1.42 ERA and 0.89 WHIP to go along with a 23-1 K-BB ratio. In his first start of the regular season he looked pretty sharp against the Blue Jays going six innings while allowing just two runs. The only concern for the Yankees is the multitude of left-handers in their lineup against Chen. But with the problems previously mentioned, it probably won't matter. Take New York as a small underdog today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-13-15 | Washington Nationals v. Boston Red Sox -114 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 4 h 55 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #976 Boston Red Sox over Washington Nationals (3:05pm EST) The Washington Nationals will probably be one of the top teams in the National League by season's end. But right now they are just a mediocre team that is trying to stay afloat until they are healthy. Anthony Rendon, Jayson Werth (may return today) and Denard Span are nursing short-term injuries at the moment. That's three of their top hitters on a team that lacks good depth and is without fourth outfielder Nate McLouth as well. It will be particularly troubling for the Nats today in Boston, as they'll need to find a designated hitter to insert to the lineup as well. For the Red Sox, they'll obviously have David Ortiz in that slot - a huge advantage for them. Rick Porcello will toe the rubber for Boston in the home opener for the Sox. Boston gave Porcello a ton of money after bringing him over from the Tigers, so they must think they can further improve upon what the 26-year old has already done. He already has 76 wins at the major league level and had his best season in 2014 going 15-13 with a 3.43 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. He's shown steady improvement throughout his career, so expect similar numbers again in Boston. Jordan Zimmermann goes for the Nats. He's obviously no easy target, but his velocity was down a touch in his opening start. If he's not right, a dangerous Red Sox lineup should be able to exploit him. Take Boston in this one. |
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04-12-15 | Houston Astros v. Texas Rangers +113 | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 8 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #922 Texas Rangers over Houston Astros (Sunday, 3:05pm EST) It's the rubber game in the battle of Texas on Sunday afternoon. The Astros and Rangers likely won't be competing for playoff spots in 2015, so the question is which of these teams can avoid the cellar in the AL West. Personally, I have these two teams rated very evenly, so it's surprising to see the line on this matchup heavily in favor of the Astros on the road. Yes they have the better pitcher on the mound in Dallas Keuchel, but to be -130 favorites away from home for a team that is rebuilding is over doing it. The Rangers have a much better lineup this season after getting Prince Fielder back in the mix along with several other key players that missed time in 2014. They also hit extremely well against southpaws last season, so Keuchel is going be challenged this afternoon. Colby Lewis gets the ball for the Rangers, and he is coming off of a great performance in Oakland where we pitched six innings while allowing just three hits and one run. The value is clearly with the Rangers as home underdogs here. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-10-15 | Boston Red Sox v. New York Yankees +101 | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 35 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #924 New York Yankees over Boston Red Sox (7:05pm EST) Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-10-15 | Houston Astros +103 v. Texas Rangers | 5-1 | Win | 103 | 4 h 37 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #919 Houston Astros over Texas Rangers (4:05pm EST) You would think that Collin McHugh would finally get some respect after what he accomplished last season. The 27-year old posted a 2.73 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 25 starts in 2014, but was an underdog in nearly every game he pitched. He's one of the top 10 pitchers in the AL and the betting marketplace looks like it still hasn't quite caught on. We'll take advantage again this season, starting today against the Rangers. I like the moves Houston made in the offseason as they converted their bullpen from mediocrity to one of the best in baseball with the additions of Luke Gregorson and Pat Neshek. Colby Rasmus and Evan Gattis were also very nice additions to help bring balance to the lineup. This Rangers team isn't any better than the Astros overall - especially after losing Yu Darvish for the entire 2015 campaign. They'll trot out left-hander Derek Holland this afternoon. I like what Holland brings to the table, but the Astros crushed lefties last season and they should fare well again this season. Houston is the best team in Texas and they should get the money today. |
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04-10-15 | Detroit Tigers v. Cleveland Indians -116 | 8-4 | Loss | -116 | 4 h 37 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #918 Cleveland Indians over Detroit Tigers (4:10pm EST) It's early in the season, but every game matters the same and this series between the Tigers and Indians is a big one. I expect these two squads to be neck-and-neck for most of the regular season as both have legitimate cases to be made for winning the AL Central. With both teams rated fairly evenly overall, it's the pitching matchup that separates these teams today. Alfredo Simon gets the ball for the Tigers after being acquired from the Reds in the offseason. Simon put up good numbers on the surface last season, going 15-10 with a 3.44 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 196.3 innings pitched. But there's a reason that the Reds didn't hesitate to give up the right-hander. 2014 was Simon's first year in the starting rotation after working in the bullpen for about five years. He only posted 5.8 strikeout rate per nine innings, which is far below league average. Simon is a contact pitcher that relies heavily on his defense and doesn't overpower anyone at the plate. That's bad news for him, as he goes from a team that has had above average defense in the Reds, to one that is far below average in the Tigers. In addition, pitchers that have gone from the NL to the AL have struggled mightily in their first year after the transition in recent years. Zach McAllister will go for the Tribe after having a sensational spring that landed him in the rotation. It was so good, in fact, that he forced the Indians to send down the talented Danny Salazar. McAllister was 3-1 with a 2.84 ERA in 25.1 innings of work in the spring, with an eye-popping 28-4 strikeout rate. The Indians have been very successful in developing young arms and I think we will be able to add McAllister to that list in 2015. Take Cleveland at home with a big edge on the mound to open the series. |
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04-09-15 | Boston Red Sox v. Philadelphia Phillies +127 | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 34 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #968 Philadelphia Phillies over Boston Red Sox (7:05pm EST)Â |
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04-09-15 | Cleveland Indians -104 v. Houston Astros | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 2 h 40 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #961 Cleveland Indians over Houston Astros (8:10pm EST) One of the pitchers we have circled as a potential good value coming into the season is Indians right-hander Trevor Bauer. Nobody studies his own pitches and puts more work towards getting better than Bauer does. He made a step forward last season as he solidified his role in the Indians rotation. This season he takes another step forward to become an above average pitcher. The defense behind him was one of the worst in the league in 2014, so there's very little doubt they'll be improved in that department this season. I think the Indians are the best team in the AL Central as they are balanced across every area and don't have any big glaring weaknesses. The Houston Astros are still in their rebuilding phase, but they are certainly improved over last year's edition. They made some big moves in the offseason and should be competitive, but they are probably a year or two away from being in the playoff mix. Asher Wojciechowski surprisingly cracked the Astros rotation in the spring, and he'll make his major league debut this afternoon. He has a tough assignment going up against a Tribe lineup full of talented left-handers. Woj didn't exactly tear it up in the minor leagues, so I think this experiment has the potential to blow up. This price is far too low, so we'll take the better team featuring the better pitcher. |
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04-09-15 | New York Mets +105 v. Washington Nationals | 6-3 | Win | 105 | 1 h 36 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #953 New York Mets over Washington Nationals (1:05pm EST) Today's pitching matchup in D.C. is going to be a good one for the next 10+ years. Matt Harvey and Stephen Strasburg are two of the best young pitchers in the game and they are going to get even better over the next few seasons. Harvey is returning from Tommy John surgery, but it didn't seem to affect him one bit in Spring Training. Harvey posted a miniscule 1.19 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in six starts this spring. Even more impressively, he put up a 21-1 K-BB ratio in 22.2 innings of work. It's possible that Harvey is even stronger after getting the surgery done, and that's a scary thought for the other NL teams. The Nationals are missing three key parts in their lineup - Anthony Rendon, Jayson Werth and Denard Span. Without much depth, the Nats are really going to struggle to score runs. They have only been able to muster a total of three runs in their first two games, and going up against Harvey isn't going to make things any easier. Strasburg will keep Washington in the game, but I think the Mets have the better team overall with the injury situation for the Nats. Take New York in the underdog role today. |
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04-08-15 | Los Angeles Angels v. Seattle Mariners -122 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -122 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #928 Seattle Mariners over Los Angeles Angels (10:10pm EST) If you're looking for the most balanced team in the American League, look no further than the Seattle Mariners. They have a nice balanced lineup, a dominant bullpen, stellar defense and an above average starting rotation. They just missed out on the postseason last year, and this season they are on a mission to get there. Today's starter Hisashi Iwakuma doesn't get much attention, but he's one of the top 10 starters in the American League and has been a rock of consistency in his three years in an M's uniform. Last year he went 15-9 with a 3.52 ERA and that was his worst season. Today he'll get the Los Angeles Angels, who have one of the better offenses in the league. However, the Angels aren't as good against right-handers and they are without one of their big bats in Josh Hamilton. Matt Shoemaker will toe the rubber for Los Angeles, and I see a huge potential for a sophomore slump from him after putting together a great rookie season in 2014. Shoemaker really struggled in the spring with only 10 strikeouts in 25.1 innings of work. The team hinted at some possible mechanical adjustments for Shoemaker and it didn't sound very good. The Mariners hit right-handers great in 2014 with all of their lefties in their lineup. Now they add a big power bat in Nelson Cruz to the mix, who hit 40 homers last season with the Orioles. He won't hit that many with Seattle, but he provides excellent protection for both Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager in the M's lineup. These are the two best teams in the AL West, but the Mariners are the better all-around squad and they have the matchup advantages today. |
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04-07-15 | San Diego Padres v. Los Angeles Dodgers -153 | 7-3 | Loss | -153 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #960 Los Angeles Dodgers over San Diego Padres (10:10pm EST) We took the Dodgers yesterday and cashed a winning ticket, and we like them again today for many of the same reasons. The Padres just aren't as good as the market is rating them at this point in the season. Over half of their roster is brand new and everyone is still getting comfortable and learning their roles. They could end up being a formidable foe down the road, but for now they are on my fade list. Tyson Ross toes the rubber for San Diego in this one, and he's a pitcher that has already hit his ceiling. Ross made the All-Star team last season and posted a strong 2.81 ERA in 31 starts. However, a lot of that success can be attributed to pitching in Petco Park for half of his starts. He had a 1.79 at home last season and a 3.79 on the road - one of the biggest splits in all of baseball. He also carried a 1.21 WHIP, which is a touch high for someone with a sub-3 ERA. As a result, some regression is in order for Ross. The Dodgers are going to win a lot of games this year and are improved over last year's squad on several fronts. The biggest difference is defensively, where the Dodgers go from mediocre to elite. They also have more leadership in the clubhouse and should have better team chemistry with guys like Jimmy Rollins and Howie Kendrick in the mix now (and no more Matt Kemp and Hanley Ramirez who were sometimes more about themselves than the team). Zack Greinke makes the start for Los Angeles and is the best #2 starter in baseball. He's also been an outstanding pitcher at home throughout his career. I'm not crazy about laying big prices in early April, but value is value. Take the Dodgers here. |
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04-06-15 | San Diego Padres v. Los Angeles Dodgers -183 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 16 h 14 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #910 Los Angeles Dodgers (-185) over San Diego Padres (4:10pm EST) Opening Day 2015 has finally arrived and we see some big value on a big favorite to start things off. Clayton Kershaw put together one of the best seasons in the history of baseball in 2014, and I'm not sure he got enough credit for it. Yes he won the NL Cy Young and MVP awards, but that doesn't do it justice. Kershaw simply put together one of the best pitching seasons of this generation. He went 21-3 with a 1.77 ERA and 0.86 WHIP while striking out 10.9 batters per nine innings. The scary part - his peripherals fully supported those numbers, which means he's likely to do it again this season. At the tender age of 27, it's possible that Kershaw hasn't peaked yet and could even be better. Last season nearly all of his starts were lined north of -200, but today we get a discount because it's Opening Day. I also think the Dodgers improved last year's roster despite losing Matt Kemp and Hanley Ramirez. They are a better balanced team now with a solid lineup, strong defense and plenty of pitching. Kershaw and the Dodgers will face the new-look San Diego Padres in Dodgers Stadium this afternoon. New GM A.J. Preller made some huge waves in the offseason by adding Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Wil Myers, Derek Norris, Will Middlebrooks and James Shields. Then yesterday he made a huge trade to acquire closer Craig Kimbrel and outfielder Melvin Upton. The Pads will certainly be improved with all of the acquisitions, but the question is by how much. Offensively San Diego is going to have a lot more pop in their lineup, but it comes at the expense of a horrible defense. Their entire outfield is a liability and Norris could be a disaster behind the plate for a full season. The pitching staff is also improved, but they were pretty darn good last season. Bottom line, I expect to see some inflated lines in Padres games in the near term. Shields takes the ball today and I am not as high the move to add him as others are. He has a lot of innings on that right arm going 200+ innings on an annual basis and pitching deep into the playoffs in several of those seasons (see Justin Verlander and CC Sabathia). Yes, this is a big line to start the season off with, but there is value on the Dodgers with Kershaw on the hill. Take Los Angeles. |
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10-24-14 | Kansas City Royals v. San Francisco Giants -122 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -122 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #906 San Francisco Giants over Kansas City Royals (8:05pm EST) I have the Kansas City Royals rated slightly ahead of the San Francisco Giants all things considered. But in analyzing tonight's matchup, I give the Giants the edge based on a couple of big factors. First and foremost, veteran Tim Hudson takes the mound for the Giants against Jeremy Guthrie of the Royals. Hudson has pitched 68.1 postseason innings during his career and has registered a very respectable 3.42 ERA against some good hitting teams. Needless to say, a start in the World Series shouldn't faze Hudson very much. Guthrie, on the other hand, is pitching in his first postseason of his entire career. He looked good in the ALCS in five innings of work, but this game is on an even bigger stage and has more pressure. I trust Hudson a lot more and expect him to outpitch Guthrie today. The Giants are also at home for this one and they've been dominant at home in the postseason. They've won four straight home playoff games and nine out of 10 dating back to 2012. The Royals aren't familiar with AT&T as they haven't played there since 2005, which could be a huge advantage for the Giants. I like the Giants to prevail here and make it a 2-1 series lead. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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10-21-14 | San Francisco Giants v. Kansas City Royals +100 | 7-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #902 Kansas City Royals over San Francisco Giants (8:05pm EST) If we replayed the postseason over and over 100 times, I don't think you'd find the combination of the Kansas City Royals and San Francisco Giants come up very often. Both teams were long shots to be here as they came into the playoffs as wild cards and were up against teams with better records in each series they played. But here we are, and this should be a highly competitive World Series matchup featuring two scrappy teams. Both teams come in after a long layoff, so we might not see the best looking at bats out by the hitters in Game 1. The pitchers should have the advantage as hitters try to get their timing back, and I think there's an advantage for the Royals hidden there. Madison Bumgarner goes for the Giants and he has been on a roll in the postseason. He has a 1.42 ERA this postseason and there's no reason to believe he won't be dominant again. However, James Shields hasn't been as good. So I think the five days off for Giants hitters could be exactly what Shields needs to get on track. If he can just keep the game close heading into the sixth inning, the advantage turns to Kansas City. They have a tremendous three-headed monster in Kevin Herrera, Wade Davis and Greg Holland that has been exceptional the entire postseason. The Giants pen is good as well, but they don't have the same kind of shutdown guys. The Royals also have a big defensive edge and on the basepaths - areas of the game that are sometimes overlooked. Kaufman Stadium will be rocking for Game 1 and I like the Royals to get the job done in a tight one. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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10-14-14 | Baltimore Orioles -110 v. Kansas City Royals | 1-2 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #959 Baltimore Orioles over Kansas City Royals (8:05pm EST) There's no question in my mind that the Kansas City Royals are better than the Baltimore Orioles. They went into Baltimore and showed us why as they took both games on the road. However, the one area that the O's have a huge advantage is when it comes to the managers. Buck Showalter is one of the very best in the sport and Ned Yost seems to make at least one head scratching move in every game. For Game 3 of the ALCS, Yost has already made a huge mistake in my mind before the game has even started. He's sending Jeremy Guthrie to the hill for the start despite his struggles this season. Guthrie comes in 13-11 with a 4.13 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 32 starts this season. Those aren't inspiring numbers when you consider he had one of the better defenses behind him and pitched in a weaker AL Central division. Guthrie also hasn't pitched since September 26th. That's 17 days since his last start, so you have to expect we'll see some rust from the right-hander. Yost will surely have the bullpen warming up early should Guthrie falter, but it could be too late by the time he's out of there. The O's counter with lefty Wei-Yin Chen in tonight's matchup. He's had a solid season at 16-6 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Chen doesn't get very much attention because he isn't flashy, but he's been Baltimore's most reliable starter ever since he got here in 2012. The Royals are playing great baseball right now and that's why this line is small. However, I think this is a great opportunity to grab some value with Baltimore as they have an enormous edge on the mound here. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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10-11-14 | San Francisco Giants v. St. Louis Cardinals -118 | 3-0 | Loss | -118 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #954 St. Louis Cardinals (-120) over San Francisco Giants (8:05pm EST) If it seems like every year one of these teams is representing the NL in the World Series, you aren't mistaken. This will be the fifth consecutive year that either the Cardinals or Giants have won the NL pennant. Both of these teams know how to get the most out of their roster and a lot of that has to do with the respective managers. Mike Matheny and Bruce Bochy are two of the best in the game and they rarely make any big mistakes. On paper these clubs are very evenly matched when you break them down. We're going to see a lot of tight games in this series and the difference will come down to the little things. Home field advantage is also going to be big as St. Louis was the best home team in the NL this season at 51-30. That's where they'll be today with their ace Adam Wainwright getting the ball. He'll be opposed by San Francisco ace Madison Bumgarner so we should have quite a duel. There's a good chance that the bullpens will decide this one and I like the Cardinals a bit better if that's the case. Throw in the home field edge and I see a bit of value with St. Louis here. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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10-10-14 | Kansas City Royals +118 v. Baltimore Orioles | 8-6 | Win | 118 | 6 h 55 m | Show | |
2-unit Play Take #951 Kansas City Royals over Baltimore Orioles (8:05pm EST) We have an ALCS that brings us back to the 1980's as the Baltimore Orioles go up against the Kansas City Royals. Two proud franchises have regained their glory and we're in for what appears to be a great series. Offensively speaking, these two teams couldn't be more different. The O's rely on the home run ball while the Royals manufacture their runs. It's power versus speed and I really think small ball plays better on the big stage where runs are hard to come by. Advantage Royals. The pitching staffs are quite similar in that there are no dominant starting pitchers, but tons of quality hurlers. The bullpen is top notch on both sides, although I like the Kansas City pen a little bit more as they have a great 7-8-9 combo to close out games. The biggest edge by either team might be defensively, where the Royals have been superb so far in the postseason. Their outfield has saved numerous runs in big spots so far and could be the difference in a tight game. Finally, the Royals have an advantage on the mound today as James Shields goes up against Chris Tillman. It isn't a huge advantage, but Shields has proven himself for longer and he has more experience in big spots. All signs point to the Royals in this one and we get a nice underdog price. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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10-07-14 | Washington Nationals v. San Francisco Giants +125 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 125 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #932 San Francisco Giants over Washington Nationals (9:05pm EST) It's been a tight series between the Washington Nationals and San Francisco Giants and today's Game 4 should be no different. These teams are fairly evenly matched but I give the Giants the edge on the mound today. Gio Gonzalez goes for the Nats and he's put together another solid season at 10-10 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. He pitched a little better towards the end of the season and he should give a good effort here. Ryan Vogelsong had slightly worse numbers at 8-13 with a 4.00 ERA and 1.28 WHIP this season. But I like the fact that Vogelsong has been here before and succeeded, so the pressure isn't as likely to affect him. Manager Bruce Bochy knows what he's doing and he wouldn't be putting Vogelsong out there if he didn't think he was the best option. Normal starter Yusmeiro Petit will be ready if Vogelsong stumbles, and he's a great backup plan. The line on this game is pretty close to where it should be, but the Giants have proven themselves in big spots like this before and I don't think you can make them an underdog today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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10-05-14 | Los Angeles Angels v. Kansas City Royals -123 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 57 m | Show | |
5-unit Play Take #920 Kansas City Royals (-125) over Los Angeles Angels (7:35pm EST) It's time for the Kansas City Royals to finish off the Los Angeles Angels. After three straight extra inning wins in the postseason, the Royals carry tons of momentum back home to Kaufman Stadium. Baserunning, defense and the bullpen have been the difference in each of their games and those are the types of qualities that are often underrated when it comes to assessing teams. Today they'll have their ace James Shields on the hill and his job is simple. Just keep the game tight until the late innings - where the Royals carry a big edge over the Angels. C.J. Wilson gets the ball for the Halos and he'll likely need to be dominant if they want to extend this series. Based on the way Wilson has looked over the last few months, that appears to be a long shot. Wilson posted a 5.97 ERA in June, 10.13 in July, 4.94 in August and 4.76 in September. He just couldn't put hitters away and completely lost his control in several starts. He probably wouldn't be pitching in this series if the Angels had a better option, but injuries have ravaged the rotation. I'd be shocked if Wilson outpitches Shields today. Throw in the other advantages for the Royals (bullpen, defense, baserunning), and this one has some value. Take the Royals to close out this series at home. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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10-03-14 | San Francisco Giants v. Washington Nationals -179 | 3-2 | Loss | -179 | 3 h 6 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #906 Washington Nationals over San Francisco Giants (3:05pm EST) The NLDS gets underway for the San Francisco Giants and Washington Nationals on Friday afternoon in D.C. The Giants earned their way here by beating the Pirates in a wild card game in Pittsburgh on Wednesday. They got a huge performance by Madison Bumgarner, who pitched a complete game shutout in the then biggest game of the season. But the means that the Giants will be without their ace for the first two games of this series against the Nats. Veteran Jake Peavy gets the nod for San Francisco in Game One instead. Peavy has been good since coming back to the NL after being traded out of Boston. In his 12 starts with the Giants, Peavy is 6-4 with a stellar 2.17 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. On the other side is youngster Stephen Strasburg. Remember that Strasburg had to sit out the playoffs the last time Washington qualified amidst plenty of controversy for the organization's decision. That's all in the past, and Strasburg is focused on proving his worth on the big stage. It's been a fine year for the right-hander as he managed a 3.14 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in his 34 starts. His peripherals showed a pitcher that was even more dominant than that, so Strasburg certainly has more upside remaining. Peavy has been pitching well, but no doubt the Nats the check mark at starting pitcher today. Washington also has the advantage offensively and in the bullpen. It's not a huge edge, but they all add up in the scheme of things. The Nats had the best home record in the NL at 51-30 and the fan base is exuberant in D.C. The Giants don't play poorly on the road, but San Francisco is just 2-9 in their last 11 meetings in D.C. I'm also concerned with the loss of Angel Pagan at the top of the order for the Giants. He's their spark plug and the team feeds off of his energy. This line isn't far off from where it should be, but I feel strongly that the Nationals continue their dominance at take the opening game in this series. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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10-01-14 | San Francisco Giants -107 v. Pittsburgh Pirates | 8-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
3-unit Play  Take #947 San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates (8:05pm EST) It all comes down to one game for the San Francisco Giants and Pittsburgh Pirates tonight in the NL Wild Card showdown. Both teams check in with a regular season record of 88-74 and they have identical +51 run differentials as well. These teams are very evenly matched when you line up their rosters from top to bottom. However, baseball is a unique sport in which you don't play all of your best players in every game. In the case of the starting pitcher, you can only go with one guy each day. And for this do or die game, the Giants are set up with a huge advantage on the mound. That's mainly because the Pirates went with their ace on Sunday, Gerrit Cole, in an effort to win the NL Central. That backfired and now they are putting their entire season on the shoulders of Edinson Volquez. It's been a nice turnaround year for Volquez, but he's still not a guy you can rely on in a big spot. He owns a career 4.44 ERA and 1.45 WHIP over 10 big league seasons, including an atrocious 2013 season in which he posted a 5.71 ERA in 32 starts. This season he lowered that all the way to 3.04, but not without quite a bit of fortune. He had an uncharacteristically high stand rate and a low BABIP. Volquez just isn't the guy you want to be counting on in a big spot. On the other hand, Madison Bumgarner of the Giants is that guy. Bumgarner has continued to raise his game and is now amongst the elite in the National League. He'd be in the Cy Young discussion this season if there wasn't a guy named Clayton Kershaw. In a game that features two evenly matched squads, Bumgarner is the difference. Take the Giants to advance to the NLDS. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-28-14 | Los Angeles Angels v. Seattle Mariners -195 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 51 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #978 Seattle Mariners (-200) over Los Angeles Angels (4:10pm EST) It's the last day of the regular season and the Seattle Mariners are still alive. Not many pundits would have guessed that would be the case when the season started, so in many ways it's been a successful year for the M's regardless. However, it doesn't feel like it considering the collapse they've endured over the last few weeks. Seattle is just 8-12 over their last 20 contests, but with a little bit of help from the Rangers we could end up with a tie for the second wild card with a Seattle win. They have the guy they want on the mound to make that happen - Felix Hernandez. He's probably this year's Cy Young award winner in the AL unless he gets totally blasted today. Hernandez is having the best season of his career and he has the chance to prove why he's on the elite pitchers in baseball today. The Los Angeles Angels have had things wrapped up for quite some time, so they could care less if they win this game. Or could they? The Angels would actually benefit if Seattle wins and Oakland loses, because it would force a tie and they would need to play an extra tiebreaker game. The Halos will host the wild card winner, so they'd like nothing more than to see a worn down opponent once their series gets underway. As a result, I'd be surprised if manager Mike Scioscia goes all out today for the win. The Mariners need this game badly and I think they get it with their ace manning the mound. |
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09-27-14 | Colorado Rockies v. Los Angeles Dodgers -168 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #914 Los Angeles Dodgers over Colorado Rockies (9:10pm EST) The Los Angeles Dodgers host the Colorado Rockies as the 2014 regular season nears its end. The Dodgers are gearing up for another postseason run, while the Rockies are once again on the outside looking in. Dan Haren goes for Los Angeles today and I expect a huge effort from the veteran right-hander. Haren is likely to be counted on in the playoffs as a starter, but nothing is etched in stone just yet. The 34-year old right-hander has had a good season overall at 13-11 with a 4.03 ERA, but he surely wants to end on a high note to solidify his spot in the playoffs. He'll have a good chance against a beleaguered Colorado lineup that has really struggled away from home again this season. Without Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez and Nolan Arenado, the Rockies are a subpar offense that is overrated due to the inflated Coors numbers. Rookie Eddie Butler will make his third major league start in this one. The highly-touted right-hander struggled in his previous two outings, so he might not be ready for the big time yet. This will also be his first road start, which will add a little bit of extra pressure potentially. The Dodgers aren't an easy lineup to navigate, so Butler could be gone early on. Take the Dodgers and Haren here. |
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09-26-14 | Los Angeles Angels v. Seattle Mariners -133 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #980 Seattle Mariners (-135) over Los Angeles Angels (10:10pm EST) The Seattle Mariners have been in a freefall over the last month of the regular season, but they still have life. With the Oakland A's falling apart at the seams as well, the Mariners still have a shot to get into the playoffs. Hisashi Iwakuma gets the ball today for the M's and I'm expecting a big effort from the right-hander. Iwakuma has struggled down the stretch, but a lot of that has to do with some poor defense behind him and some unfortunate bounces at the wrong time. He's still one of the top pitchers in the AL and this price is far too low. The Los Angeles Angels have the top seed in the AL already locked up and they are going to be playing things safe. They've had numerous injuries over the last few weeks and manager Mike Scioscia's biggest concern is just keeping everyone healthy. Mike Trout is banged up and there's a good chance he is going to be sitting for this one. Jered Weaver will go for the Halos, but I'm expecting him to only go five or six innings max before being pulled. Seattle really needs this game and I think they find a way to get it done. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-25-14 | Tampa Bay Rays -116 v. Boston Red Sox | 1-11 | Loss | -116 | 7 h 57 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #917 Tampa Bay Rays over Boston Red Sox (7:10pm EST) It's been a painful season for the Boston Red Sox, but they have been given a free pass considering that they took home the World Series trophy just a year ago. I fully expect a bounce back year from the Red Sox in 2015, but there's very little fire for them right now. They've been shining those golf clubs for weeks and the results have shown it. Boston is just 13-23 in their last 36 games and have one of the worst records in baseball overall. They've been auditioning lots of young talent for the future, and that includes today's starting pitcher Allen Webster. The 24-year old right-hander has been getting shelled since being called up in late July, but the organization has given him 10 starts. He owns a hefty 5.54 ERA and 1.50 WHIP as the team is giving him a chance to work through his flaws at the big league level as opposed to in the minors. When you're a last place team, those are the kinds of things you can do. Tampa Bay has been out of the race for quite some time, but they have still been fighting hard and are above the .500 mark in the second half. Jeremy Hellickson gets the ball in today's matchup for the Rays. He's missed a significant amount of time in 2014, but he's managed a respectable 3.96 ERA in the 12 starts he has made. The Red Sox are dead last in the AL in runs scored, so Hellickson should be in command from the get go. The Rays get this one. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-24-14 | Houston Astros -102 v. Texas Rangers | 1-5 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #977 Houston Astros over Texas Rangers (8:05pm EST) It's been awhile since the Houston Astros could say that they are the best team in Texas. But they can definitely say that in 2014, as they will end up with a better record than the Rangers no matter what happens from here on out. Injuries obviously hamstrung the Rangers beginning in spring training all the way until now. I've never seen a team decimated as badly as they were, as over half of their roster spent time on the disabled list and they broke a major league record for the most players used in a season. Meanwhile, the Astros just kept getting better and have been a respectable team since May. Scott Feldman has been one of their hottest pitchers and he gets a crack at the watered-down Texas lineup in this one. Feldman has a streak of six straight quality starts and owns a 2.00 ERA and 0.96 WHIP during that stretch. The Rangers haven't been very good against right-handers this season, so Feldman should be able to extend that run tonight. Lisalverto Bonilla will make just his third big league start today for the Rangers. He's struggled at the minor league level over the last two seasons, so it's a big of a surprise to see him facing major league competition. The Astros lineup has been improving as the season has worn on and I think they can take advantage of a Triple-A pitcher. Take the Astros as the underdogs here. |
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09-24-14 | Kansas City Royals -106 v. Cleveland Indians | 4-6 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #973 Kansas City Royals over Cleveland Indians (7:05pm EST)Â |
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09-24-14 | Arizona Diamondbacks +150 v. Minnesota Twins | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 0 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #979 Arizona Diamondbacks over Minnesota Twins (1:10pm EST) It has been a painful year for both the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Minnesota Twins. Not that either team had any World Series aspirations or anything, but both organizations thought they would do much better than 90+ losses in 2014. These squads are now focused on the 2015 season with several young guys getting extended looks. The Twins are a big favorite in today's matchup. In fact, they haven't been favored much more than this the entire season. While they do hold a decent edge on the mound with Phil Hughes throwing, the Twins have no business laying this much wood. Neither team cares much about winning this game and the D-Backs' Vidal Nuno is no slouch either. Nuno has raised his game since being traded from the Yankees to Arizona in early July. He came to Phoenix with a 5.42 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 17 games with the Yankees. But as a Diamondback, Nuno has a very respectable 3.78 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 13 games while pitching in a hitter's ballpark. Both of these lineups leave something to be desired, but I think Arizona's current lineup is a bit more dangerous. Too much value to pass up on Arizona, so that's where we go today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-23-14 | Philadelphia Phillies -130 v. Miami Marlins | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -130 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #907 Philadelphia Phillies over Miami Marlins (7:10pm EST) It's been a difficult season for the Philadelphia Phillies on several fronts. This was supposed to be the beginning of a rebuild, but the stubbornness of GM Ruben Amaro has set this team back several years. The team still fought hard in the 2014 season as the veterans played with pride and didn't quit. Cole Hamels is one of the guys that certainly didn't let the organizational disaster affect him on the mound throughout the year. He put together his best season from an ERA standpoint (2.47), but he only has nine wins to show for it due to lack of run support and some bullpen blow ups. He should finish the season strong as other teams take a close look at him for a potential trade in the offseason. Henderson Alvarez makes his 29th start of the season today for Miami. This has been a breakthrough season for Alvarez as he owns an impressive 2.82 ERA and 11 wins. However, his peripheral statistics point to regression as he's been fortunate with a higher than normal strand rate and a weak strikeout rate. The Marlins haven't been the same without their slugger Giancarlo Stanton in the middle of the lineup. Stanton had a great chance of bringing home the NL MVP trophy this season, but with the injury he probably finishes in second place now. Hamels doesn't need any extra edges, but that is a big loss for Miami. We'll go with the Phillies as our Game of the Week selection today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-22-14 | Kansas City Royals v. Cleveland Indians -109 | 2-0 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 37 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #962 Cleveland Indians over Kansas City Royals (7:05pm EST) A huge series gets underway in Cleveland as the Indians hook up with the Kansas City Royals with the teams just a few games apart in the standings. The hottest pitcher in the AL gets the ball as Carlos Carrasco toes the rubber for Cleveland. Carrasco has dominated opposing batters since joining the rotation over a month ago. In eight starts, the right-hander is 5-1 with a 1.15 ERA and 0.75 WHIP to go along with a 59-7 K/BB ratio. It doesn't get any better than that in the AL and Carrasco is coming off of a complete game shutout to boot. The Royals counter with lefty Danny Duffy, who is making his first start since coming off the disabled list with a shoulder injury. The Royals have been careful with Duffy since getting injured, so it's tough to say if he is 100% or not at this point. Shoulder injuries can be complicated and it could be that Kansas City is taking a chance with him because of the urgency of the playoff race. Either way, I'd be surprised if Duffy makes it more than five or six innings today. The Royals have an edge in the bullpen, while the Indians enjoy a significant advantage at the plate. This one comes down to the starting pitching in my opinion, and no one is better than Carrasco right now. Take the Indians here. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-21-14 | Cleveland Indians -161 v. Minnesota Twins | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 2 h 30 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #921 Cleveland Indians (-165) over Minnesota Twins (2:10pm EST) With the struggles of the A's, Mariners and Royals down the stretch, all of a sudden the Indians have an outside chance of sneaking into the playoffs. They will probably need to win their remaining games to do it, but remember that they finished last season on a 10-game winning streak to qualify for the playoffs on the final day of the regular season. They'll send their ace Corey Kluber to the mound for this one. What a season it has been for the right-hander. At 16-9 with a 2.42 ERA, Kluber is in the AL Cy Young race - an accomplishment no one could have envisioned before the season began. I still don't think people are true believers in what Kluber is capable of, so we continue to look for spots to back him when the number isn't quite high enough. He's going up against a dead Minnesota Twins today. Minnesota has been waiting for the end of the season for some time as they've completely collapsed in the second half. They go with Anthony Swarzak on the mound in this matchup. Swarzak has pitched out of the bullpen for most of the 2014 season and wasn't very good when he was given a chance to start earlier this week. He gave up six runs in that start and was bounced before the fifth inning ended. We will likely see similar results today as the Indians are tough against righties. And with Kluber pitching, I think the Indians win this one in a run away. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-20-14 | San Francisco Giants -113 v. San Diego Padres | 2-3 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #963 San Francisco Giants over San Diego Padres (8:40pm EST) The San Francisco Giants are heating up at just the right time as we are a little over a week away from the start of the postseason. They've won 20 of their last 31 contests and are very close to clinching a wild card spot in the NL. Yusmeiro Petit has been one of the spark plugs for this Giants club in the second half. Since entering the rotation at the end of August, Petit has a dominating 31-1 K/BB ratio. He also recently broke the record for the most consecutive batters retired in major league history. He has a 3.64 ERA overall this season, but Petit is just starting to come into his own and has a very high ceiling. The Padres have a strong arm going for themselves as well in Andrew Cashner. The right-hander has missed a significant portion of the season with a shoulder injury. He came back about a month ago and has looked pretty solid. He's coming off of a complete game shutout versus the Phillies in which he allowed just two hits and a walk. It was one of the best starts of his entire career, so it will be interesting to see how he comes back after a big effort. Most will have Cashner power rated well above Petit, but I think they are extremely close with the way both are pitching. The Giants clearly have a big edge offensively and we'll call the bullpens a wash. I have this line about 10 cents higher, so we'll dial up the Giants in a game that matters much more to them than the Padres. |
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09-20-14 | Cleveland Indians -114 v. Minnesota Twins | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #971 Cleveland Indians over Minnesota Twins (7:10pm EST) You have to like what you've seen from the Cleveland Indians in the second half of the season. Despite trading away two of their veterans at the deadline (Justin Masterson and Asdrubal Cabrera), the Tribe has stayed focused and played great team baseball. Their starting rotation is extremely underrated at this point, and T.J. House is a big reason why. House has stepped up in a huge way this season with a 3.42 ERA in 17 games. He's inducing groundballs at a rate of over 60% and has continuously improved as the season has worn on. Over his last three starts, House has a miniscule 0.86 ERA and 0.76 WHIP. Equally as impressive is his 20-0 K/BB ratio in those outings. His last start was versus the Minnesota Twins and he'll see them once again today in Minneapolis. The Twins haven't been focused for some time now and are just waiting for the offseason at this point. The Indians still have an outside chance, albeit slim, to get into the playoffs. As a result, manager Terry Francona will be treating this one like a playoff game. The Twins are auditioning young talent for next season and one of those guys is today's starter Trevor May. The right-hander has pitched better lately, but he enters this game with an absurdly high 7.71 ERA and 1.86 WHIP. The Indians have excelled against righties this season, so I wouldn't be surprised if they chased May out early. Take the Tribe in this spot. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-20-14 | Detroit Tigers v. Kansas City Royals -110 | 3-2 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 48 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #970 Kansas City Royals over Detroit Tigers (1:05pm EST) Today's matchup versus Detroit Tigers is the biggest game of the season for the Kansas City Royals. They are now 1.5 games behind in the division and only a half game up for the second wild card spot with 10 games remaining in the regular season. If they don't win this one, winning the division is probably out of the question. The good news for the Royals is that they have their top guy on the mound today - James Shields. Big Game James has the nickname for a reason and I expect a huge effort in a must-win game. He shut down these same Tigers in dominating fashion about a week ago in Detroit to salvage a series. Shields went seven innings without allowing a run while allowing just two hits and a walk. He could easily do the same here today, and may need to for the Royals to get the win. That's because Tigers ace Max Scherzer toes the rubber. He's had another fine season at 16-5 with a 3.26 ERA, but the last six starts have been a bit rocky for him. Scherzer has a subpar 4.46 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in those outings and has lost his control a bit. It could be the heavy workloads of the last few years starting to take its toll, so that's something to monitor. This game could easily come down to the respective bullpens with two workhorses battling. If that ends up the case, the Royals have a huge edge in the late innings. The Royals need this one and I think they get it. |
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09-19-14 | Chicago White Sox v. Tampa Bay Rays -122 | 4-3 | Loss | -122 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
5-unit Play Take #920 Tampa Bay Rays over Chicago White Sox (7:10pm EST) The Tampa Bay Rays and Chicago White Sox have been out of the race for quite some time, so only pride is on the line today. The White Sox, however, are playing more of their young guys lately in an effort to assess what they have for the 2015 season. Guys like Marcus Semien, Carlos Sanchez, Moises Sierra, Andy Wilkins and Adrian Nieto have been getting more at bats, so Tampa starter Jeremy Hellickson should have a little bit easier time of it in this one. Hellickson has had a nice season despite the fact he missed most of the 2014 campaign due to injury. He comes in with a 3.63 ERA and is striking out over eight batters per nine innings. He's been an inconsistent pitcher throughout his career, but he's been throwing the ball well lately and he matches up well today. The Sox go with lefty Jose Quintana, who is one of the more underrated pitchers in the AL. Quintana plays second fiddle to Chris Sale, but has been solid since breaking in the league three years ago with a career 3.50 ERA. But Quintana hasn't been as sharp over the last couple of months. The Rays still play with a lot of fire under manager Joe Maddon and the team still has a chance to finish above .500 if they can make a strong run over the next week. I like Tampa at home here. |
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09-18-14 | Seattle Mariners -147 v. Los Angeles Angels | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #967 Seattle Mariners over Los Angeles Angels (10:05pm EST) Great spot here to play this year's AL Cy Young, Felix Hernandez, against what will probably be a weak Angels lineup. The Halos clinched the AL West division last night and are likely to rest a few of their regulars as a reward. The team also has had a few minor injury scares of late, so Mike Scioscia wouldn't mind keeping a few of the key pieces on the bench to observe. The Seattle Mariners are in desperation mode as they now trail by a couple of games in the wild card race. They won't be resting anyone and will be treating this one like a playoff game. Felix hasn't been as sharp as usual lately, but in a must-win type of game I really think he steps up and delivers. The Angels counter with Jered Weaver, who is slowly declining at the age of 31. His ERA has increased for four straight seasons and is now at 3.50, which is still respectable but no longer dominant. I'd be surprised if Scioscia rides him hard tonight after clinching, so Weaver could get pulled early on in favor of some of the weaker bullpen options. From a motivation standpoint, this game screams Mariners. Throw in the big pitching advantage and the play is on Seattle. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-16-14 | San Francisco Giants -121 v. Arizona Diamondbacks | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #961 San Francisco Giants over Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40pm EST) When the San Francisco Giants acquired Jake Peavy a couple of months ago, he wasn't pitching well for the Red Sox. In fact, he was pitching about as bad as he had at any point during his entire 12-year career. But the Giants saw some positive signs from Peavy and thought he could be a fit in a veteran clubhouse that always gets the most from their players. And they were right. Peavy has fit in perfectly with the Giants and is throwing better now than he has in years. Over his last six starts, the right-hander is 5-1 with a 1.12 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. He also boasts an exceptional 35-7 K/BB ratio during that span and has only allowed two home runs. Tonight he gets the Arizona Diamondbacks - a team that has been shining their golf clubs for weeks. The D-Backs have dropped seven of 10 and have nothing to play for at this point in the season. The Giants are fighting hard for the NL West division and have been playing really solid baseball the last few weeks. San Francisco is 13-6 over their last 19 contests with a nice balance of the offense stepping up and the pitching staff doing what they are capable of. Josh Collmenter goes for Arizona tonight and I'm not a huge fan of his stuff. He tries to get hitters out with a lot of junk pitches and that's not going to work against a smart Giants team. They've seen him plenty over the last few years and should be able to get some nice knocks on him. Take San Francisco with the red hot Peavy in this one. |
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09-15-14 | Los Angeles Dodgers -124 v. Colorado Rockies | 11-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #907 Los Angeles Dodgers over Colorado Rockies (8:40pm EST)Â |
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09-15-14 | Cincinnati Reds -108 v. Chicago Cubs | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #905 Cincinnati Reds over Chicago Cubs (8:05pm EST) We have two starting pitchers with different mindsets heading into today's matchup between the Cincinnati Reds and Chicago Cubs. For the Reds' Alfredo Simon it's been a breakthrough season in 2014. The 33-year old right-hander has spent most of his career in the bullpen, but was given a shot in the rotation this season with Mat Latos on the disabled list early on. Simon responded in a big way as he enters today's matchup at 14-10 with a 3.48 ERA and also made the All-Star team this season. He's been one of the bright spots for the Reds this year and would like to finish the season strong to hopefully secure a spot in the rotation for next season. Travis Wood, on the other hand, cannot wait for the 2014 campaign to end. The southpaw is having the worst season of his young career at 8-12 with a 5.03 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. Wood lost control of his pitches early on in the season and just never got on track. The Cubs are without their top two offensive weapons in Anthony Rizzo and Starlin Castro, so Wood is going to have to pitch extremely well to give Chicago a chance. I just don't see that happening and I'm much more confident in Simon shutting down the Cubs' bats. This price seems awfully cheap for the better team and much better pitcher. The play is Cincinnati. |
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09-14-14 | Minnesota Twins v. Chicago White Sox -120 | 6-4 | Loss | -120 | 1 h 25 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #974 Chicago White Sox (-125) over Minnesota Twins (2:10pm EST) The Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox will play yet another meaningless September game today, but that doesn't mean we can't find an edge. Two bad pitchers will go at it, but one of them has shown some improvement lately. Hector Noesi won't ever be confused with a good starting pitcher, but he's figured some things out over his last four starts. He's gone seven innings in three of those outings and 6.1 innings in the other. His K/BB ratio is much better during that span as he's posted an impressive 22-2 ratio. He'll face a weak-hitting Twins lineup that has really struggled over the last couple of months. On Minnesota's side, they will have right-hander Trevor May. That's good news for White Sox hitters, as May comes in at 2-4 with an 8.38 ERA and 2.07 WHIP in seven games this season. His biggest problem is his exorbitant walk rate of 5.9 batters per nine innings. That's going to have to improve considerably if May is ever going to earn a full-time spot in the rotation in the big leagues. For right now the Twins are just trying to get a good look at him, and that's where we like to take advantage. The White Sox have a huge edge on the mound today and this price is too low. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-13-14 | Miami Marlins v. Philadelphia Phillies -126 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 1 h 27 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #902 Philadelphia Phillies over Miami Marlins (7:05pm EST) The Miami Marlins have exceeded all expectations this season as they've played near the .500 mark for most of the way. The team even had an outside chance at grabbing an NL wild card spot until the unthinkable happened. Superstar Giancarlo Stanton was drilled in the head with a Mike Fiers pitch on Thursday, effectively ending his season and the Marlins. There was and still is a chance that Stanton takes home an MVP trophy for his efforts in 2014. The Marlins offense just isn't the same without their talented slugger and I fully expect the team to fall apart down the stretch without him. That's good news for Phillies starter Kyle Kendrick. He gets the ball today and will have a much easier time of it than usual. The Marlins were held to just one run in 10 innings yesterday by Cole Hamels and the Phils bullpen. They were 2-for-10 with runners in scoring position and left eight men on base. Expect more of the same in this matchup. Brad Hand goes for the Marlins and I just don't understand why he has a spot in the rotation. He doesn't have great stuff and his numbers haven't been good this season. There are far more talented young arms that should have been given an opportunity by now. Without Stanton, the pressure is on Hand to hold the Phillies at bay and I just don't see him doing it. Take Philadelphia at home. |
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09-11-14 | Minnesota Twins - Game #2 v. Cleveland Indians - Game #2 -160 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 29 m | Show | |
4-unit Play  Take #922 Cleveland Indians over Minnesota Twins (3:05pm EST) Although he isn't a household name yet, T.J. House of the Cleveland Indians is making some big waves in the American League right now. The 24-year old southpaw has a 3.71 ERA on the season and has continued to get better in each start. His last two outings have been particularly impressive as he went seven innings in each while allowing just one run. He didn't walk a single batter in either outing and notched 12 strikeouts total. That's not bad for a guy once thought of as a stop-gap until they could get healthy in the rotation again. House is here to stay and I expect him to get even better as he works on his stuff. He gets the weak-hitting Minnesota Twins in this matchup. The Twins are 5-16 in their last 21 games as they head down the stretch to cap off yet another miserable season. Kyle Gibson is one of their better starting pitchers, but the Indians hit right-handers extremely well - especially at home. Cleveland has one of the best home records at home this season at 43-30. They are the much better club and there's plenty of value to bad had backing them here. |
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09-10-14 | Kansas City Royals +105 v. Detroit Tigers | 3-0 | Win | 105 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #969 Kansas City Royals over Detroit Tigers (7:05pm EST) They don't call him Big Game James for nothing, and todays' game versus the Tigers certainly qualifies. James Shields has been known as one of top pressure pitchers in the game for some time and today he'll get a chance to uphold his reputation. The Tigers and Royals have been neck-and-neck for several weeks and this is their final meeting in Detroit. There's no question that Detroit has a more talented team and the bigger names. But the Royals play much better as a team and do all of the little things fundamentally correct. I generally side with those types of teams because they can be easily undervalued, while teams like the Tigers are often overvalued. Rick Porcello gets the ball for Detroit and he's having his best season ever. However, I still don't trust him in a big game because he's crumbled under pressure in the past. Kansas City is the underdog today and I'll gladly take them with the better pitcher going and better team overall. |
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09-10-14 | Chicago Cubs v. Toronto Blue Jays -171 | 1-11 | Win | 100 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
2-unit Play Take #980 Toronto Blue Jays over Chicago Cubs (7:05pm EST) The Chicago Cubs are improving and there's a lot of optimism for the coming years on the North Side of Chicago. That's because the Cubs own a bevy of top prospects and several of them have flashed their skills after being called up recently. One of those guys is right-handed pitcher Kyle Hendricks. The 24-year old is 6-1 with a miniscule 2.02 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 10 starts since coming up from Triple-A. He has surely earned a spot in the rotation for next season, but he's not pitching nearly as well as Cubs fans think. Hendricks has been aided by an extremely fortunate 82% strand rate and .260 BABIP. Those are strong regression indicators, so Hendricks is in store for trouble ahead. He also is only striking out 4.9 batters per nine innings in his starts. He has good control that keeps his walks down, but it's tough to survive on so few strikeouts unless you are an extreme groundball pitcher and have great defense behind you. That's not the case in Chicago, so I think Hendricks is an overvalued commodity at the moment. The Cubs are in Toronto for this one, and they're playing very shorthanded. Their two stars, Anthony Rizzo and Starlin Castro, are both on the shelf with injuries. That depletes a lineup that has is already weak, and the Cubs will have to add a designated hitter into the mix. The Jays send right-hander Drew Hutchison to the rubber to make his 29th start of the season. It's been an up and down season for the young hurler, but he's been pitching well of late. Over his last three outings, Hutch has a 1.90 ERA and 1.00 WHIP to go along with a strong 22-6 K/BB ratio. Going against a weak Chicago lineup, I expect him to go deep and pitch really well. The Cubs are one of the worst road teams in baseball, while the Jays have played well at home overall. Given all of the above, we're going with Toronto. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-09-14 | Houston Astros +135 v. Seattle Mariners | 2-1 | Win | 135 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #927 Houston Astros (+130) over Seattle Mariners (10:10pm EST) The Houston Astros have been very good to us and especially so with Collin McHugh on the mound. I'm not sure what the 27-year old right-hander needs to do to get some recognition, but he's a sizable dog once again today versus an inferior pitcher. McHugh is one of the best pitchers in the AL with a 2.89 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 22 starts. If he was on a better team and hadn't missed part of the season earlier on, we could be talking about him as a potential Cy Young candidate. The Astros have been on a nice run lately, winning eight of 12. They are also 51-54 in their last 105 games, which is definitely respectable given the division that they play in. The Mariners are a solid baseball team, but with Roenis Elias on the hill they should not be this big of a favorite. We'll take McHugh and the Astros once again today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-09-14 | Baltimore Orioles -135 v. Boston Red Sox | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
5-unit Play Take #921 Baltimore Orioles over Boston Red Sox (7:10pm EST) The Baltimore Orioles are putting together another magical season in 2014. They have the second best record in all of baseball and are 32-17 since the All-Star break. They've done it with the team concept and different heroes coming through every night. They don't have a dominating rotation, exceptional offense or even a shutdown bullpen. But all of their components are above average and they do all of the little things that win baseball games. Give manager Buck Showalter a lot of the credit, as he has been instrumental in changing the attitude in Baltimore and giving confidence to young talented players. Chris Tillman gets the ball for the O's today as he looks to build on what has been a very nice season. The right-hander is 11-5 with a 3.40 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 30 starts. His peripherals aren't quite as good as his surface stats, but it's been that way for Tillman for most of his career so it's not surprising. He knows how to pitch to big league hitters and seems to have a knack for getting himself out of trouble. The same can't be said yet of Red Sox youngster Anthony Ranaudo. The right-hander turns 25 today and has struggled with his stuff in his first four major league outings. He's managed to win three of those outings, but he's posted a 4.63 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in the process. But even more troubling is his 8-10 K/BB ratio in 23.1 innings of work. Pitchers can't survive with strikeout rates that low, and especially so when they are walking more than they are striking out. The Red Sox don't have a great defense, so pitching to contact is going to hurt more than it helps this club. Ranaudo may eventually be a quality big league pitcher, but he still has a lot to learn. The Orioles have been swinging the bats well and I'd be surprised if Ranaudo can last through five innings in this one. Take Baltimore as our Game of the Week. |
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09-08-14 | Kansas City Royals +128 v. Detroit Tigers | Top | 5-9 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 31 m | Show |
This could be the series where the Kansas City Royals stake their claim to the AL Central. They travel to Detroit to begin a crucial three-game series against the Tigers on Monday. The Royals currently hold a two-game lead in the division, so if they can win two of three in this series they will nearly lock things up barring a collapse. The Royals are playing fantastic baseball with a 31-12 record over their last 43 games. Conversely, Detroit is slowly crumbling as they are three games below .500 since the All-Star break. Kansas City has the edge on the mound today with Jeremy Guthrie going up against Justin Verlander. That's something I didn't think I'd ever be saying about two years ago, but Verlander is no longer Verlander. In fact, he's one of the worst pitchers in the AL over the last two seasons. Guthrie is nothing special, but he has looked very good over the last few weeks. The offense is the only area where the Tigers can claim an advantage, and it's a sizable one. However, the Royals more than make up for it with a better bullpen, better team defense and playing more fundamentally sound overall. The Royals do all of the little things to win ball games that the Tigers don't do. On paper, the Tigers have more talent and look the part. But the Royals are the more complete team and I like their chances to win this series. It starts with a win tonight, and we get a great underdog price with the Royals. |
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09-07-14 | San Diego Padres -118 v. Colorado Rockies | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -118 | 5 h 46 m | Show |
Two NL West clubs with different mindsets do battle today in Coors Field. The San Diego Padres have been a completely team in the second half of the season after dismal start to the 2014 campaign. They were 41-54 at the break, but since then they are a very solid 25-20. The biggest part of the turnaround is the fact that they've been hitting the ball really well. That should come in handy today in Coors Field against Franklin Morales and the Rockies. Morales has struggled for most of the season at 5-7 with a 5.46 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. His poor production can't all be blamed on Coors as Morales ha a 5.29 ERA on the road this season in 63 innings. He's a fly ball pitcher, which isn't going to bode well in Denver on most days. The Padres don't have a ton of power, but anyone can hit one out of Coors if they get a good swing on it. All-Star Tyson Ross will toe the rubber for San Diego. The right-hander has established himself as one of the better pitchers in the NL with a 2.60 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 29 starts this season. The Rockies are a complete mess offensively without their two top hitters out - Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez. This team has really given up on its season once those two were put on the disabled list. They have the worst record in baseball since the beginning of May and have been shining their golf clubs for weeks now. Take the Padres here. |
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09-06-14 | Kansas City Royals v. New York Yankees -117 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 44 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #968 New York Yankees over Kansas City Royals (4:05pm EST) Huge game in the Bronx between the Kansas City Royals and New York Yankees. Both teams are vying for playoff spots in the AL, but New York really needs this series. The Yanks are now 4.5 games behind in the wild card race and they have a few teams to hurdle to get it. It's make or break time, but luckily they send their hottest pitcher to the mound for this one. No one would have predicted it, but Brandon McCarthy has turned out to be one of the best trade acquisitions of the season by any team. The right-handed hurler has been one of the top pitchers in the AL since the Yankees acquired him in early July. In 10 starts, McCarthy has compiled a 2.80 ERA and 1.20 WHIP and has struck out nearly a batter per inning. The Royals counter with lefty Danny Duffy today. Duffy is a hard guy to figure out, but one thing that's for sure is that he's nowhere near the pitcher that his 2.42 ERA tells you he is. Based on his peripherals, Duffy is close to two runs worse than that and he's been wildly inconsistent on top of it. The Yankees match up well against southpaws, so I think they can get to Duffy early and often. The Royals get a slight edge with the other components (offense, defense, bullpen), but it's not big enough to overcome the starting pitcher advantage held by the Yankees and home field advantage. I have this line about 15 cents higher, so we're on the Yankees. |
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09-06-14 | Philadelphia Phillies +160 v. Washington Nationals | 3-1 | Win | 160 | 5 h 43 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #951 Philadelphia Phillies over Washington Nationals (4:05pm EST) You have to give some credit to the Philadelphia Phillies as they haven't just rolled over despite the fact that they've been out of contention since May. The Phils are 10-4 over the last couple of weeks and seem intent on playing spoiler to the playoff hopes of others in the NL. A.J. Burnett will look to keep the momentum going in today's matchup versus the Washington Nationals. The veteran right-hander has had an up-and-down season to be sure, but he's a gamer that gives you everything he has in every start and can dominate a game at any time. He's the perfect kind of guy to back in the underdog role for those reasons, which is why we look Philadelphia's way today. The Nats have been skidding just a bit lately and I'm not crazy about today's starter Tanner Roark. He's not as good as the ERA indicates and isn't pitching at the same level he was earlier in the season. The Phillies have been scoring a ton of runs lately, so Roark is going to have his hands full today. This is a big price, so we'll take a shot with the Phils. |
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09-05-14 | Toronto Blue Jays -117 v. Boston Red Sox | 8-9 | Loss | -117 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
7-unit Play Take #919 Toronto Blue Jays over Boston Red Sox (7:10pm EST) The Boston Red Sox might as well be eating their fried chicken and drinking their beer, because their season has been over for a long time. Winning the World Series last year really took an edge off of this team and I haven't seen the fire on the field that they demonstrated throughout 2013. It seems like the team is just counting the days until the offseason at this point, as they are 5-13 in their last 18 overall. They also just suffered a horrible ninth inning loss to their rival Yankees on Thursday, so this team has to be at their low point now. To make matters worse, right-hander Allen Webster gets the ball for them today. Webster has been amongst the worst starting pitchers in baseball since he's been up with the big league team. He sports a hefty 6.69 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in seven starts, but the biggest issue is his hideous 21-23 K/BB ratio. The Sox are sticking with Webster because they want to get him some experience and see if he's a viable option for next season. If they were anywhere close to contending, Webster is in the minor leagues working through these issues. The Toronto Blue Jays have won five straight games to pull themselves back into the AL playoff race. They are still 4.5 games out of the second wild card spot, but the team has its swagger back and is playing confident baseball. Drew Hutchison gets the nod today and he's looked great in his last two starts. He shut down the Yankees and Rays in those outings, giving up a combined one run in 13 innings of work including a 16-4 K/BB ratio. It's been an up-and-down season for the 24-year old right-hander, but right now he's locked in. Hutchison should get plenty of support from his offense, so even a mediocre outing should be enough to get the job done today. Take the Blue Jays as our Game. |
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09-04-14 | Los Angeles Angels -118 v. Minnesota Twins | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #963 Los Angeles Angels over Minnesota Twins (8:10pm EST) The Los Angeles Angels will be happy to head to Minnesota after losing a short two-game series in Houston. The fact is, the Astros are a much better team than the Twins are right now despite similar records. That's because the Twins, like they do every season, have been slowly fading after a decent start. They just don't have the horses on the pitching staff and their offense has not been consistent enough to win them games. Since the All-Star break the Twins are 17-28, which equates to a 100-loss team pro-rated over a full season. They are more focused on next season, while the Angels have their attention on winning the AL West division. The Halos have the best record in baseball and there are no big weaknesses except for a couple of holes in the starting rotation due to injury. Hector Santiago has been considered one of the weak links, but he's currently throwing the ball the best he has all season and I think we'll see another solid effort tonight. Over his last four outings, the left-hander has a spectacular 1.19 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. Confidence has been an issue for Santiago in the past, so he's the kind of pitcher who can continue to build on solid efforts one after another. The Angels offense should have no problem giving him some support today as they've been near the top in run production all season long. Mike Trout is finally going to get that MVP trophy that he has deserved since he broke into the league, and he has a nice supporting cast around him. The Angels are the far superior team and we get a great price on them today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-02-14 | Seattle Mariners +131 v. Oakland A's | 6-5 | Win | 131 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #977 Seattle Mariners over Oakland A's (10:05pm EST) We have an important series in Oakland this week as the A's play host the Mariners. Oakland and Seattle are both battling for wild card spots and the division as we head down the stretch run of the 2014 season. One of the emerging young starting pitchers in the AL goes for the M's in this one. Left-hander James Paxton is making his eighth big league start this season and he's been a joy to watch thus far. He enters today's matchup with a 1.83 ERA and 1.09 WHIP and has faced some great lineups along the way. With King Felix and Iwakuma in the rotation Paxton is going to be no higher than the #3 guy, but he could develop into a potential ace down the road. The A's were the worst hitting team in the AL in the month of August. It's probably more than a coincidence that their struggles began immediately after trading away their big stick Yoenis Cespedes to bolster their pitching staff. They'll eventually get it going again, but this isn't a team that I'm looking to play on right now. Sonny Gray takes the mound and he's been solid this season, but probably not as spectacular as some had hoped for. He doesn't have that put away pitch that he demonstrated in parts of last season, but he's still getting the job done with a 3.03 ERA. I still give Paxton a small edge over Gray and the Mariners are playing much better baseball than the A's overall right now. We'll go with the M's as the underdog today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-02-14 | San Francisco Giants -145 v. Colorado Rockies | 12-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #959 San Francisco Giants over Colorado Rockies (8:40pm EST)Â |
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09-01-14 | San Francisco Giants -135 v. Colorado Rockies | 9-10 | Loss | -135 | 7 h 5 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #911 San Francisco Giants over Colorado Rockies (5:20pm EST) Like a fine wine, Tim Hudson seemingly gets better with age. At 39, the right-hander is putting together one of his best seasons of his career. Hudson checks in with a tidy 2.90 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 26 starts this season for the Giants. This is the point of the season where older pitchers can break down, but Hudson is in excellent shape and he looked amazing in his last outing. He went eight innings while allowing just four hits and one run against the Rockies in San Francisco. Today he'll face them again - this time in Coors Field. While it's definitely tougher in the high altitude, Hudson was built for Coors with his excellent sinker and outstanding control. He won't make mistakes up in the zone and most of his outs are recorded via the ground. The Rockies have been the worse team in the majors since the beginning of May and they aren't too focused on winning games at the moment. The Giants are currently in a wild card slot in the NL and every series has been intense for them. That's an extra focus and advantage that doesn't always gets factored into the line. I expect Hudson to shut down a struggling Rockies lineup once again and for the Giants to come up with the victory. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-31-14 | Oakland A's v. Los Angeles Angels -120 | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 3 h 43 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #978 Los Angeles Angels over Oakland A's (3:35pm EST) The Angels go for the huge four-game sweep of the A's tonight in Anaheim. They have the best mark in baseball and are playing lights out with a 14-4 mark in their last 18 games. On paper, most would give the pitching edge to the A's today with Scott Kazmir going up against Matt Shoemaker. But not so fast. Yes Kazmir has had a very nice season at 14-6 with a 3.08 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. But Shoemaker is right there at 13-4 with a 3.33 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. And it's Shoemaker who has been pitching better of late as he didn't allow a single run in either of his last two starts, which spans 14.2 innings. He was brilliant in both of those outings and has been a savior for an Angel's rotation that has been wrecked by injuries in 2014. Oakland has been in a long funk at the plate since trading away their big bopper Yoenis Cespedes. Meanwhile, the Angels continue to rake at the plate and get the big hits when they need them. The Angels are also a league-best 46-24 at home this season and the A's are just 35-34 on the road. All signs point to an Angel's victory here and we get a reasonable price to boot. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-30-14 | Boston Red Sox v. Tampa Bay Rays -168 | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #926 Tampa Bay Rays over Boston Red Sox (7:10pm EST) Late season baseball provides some unique opportunities that you wouldn't find earlier in the season. Tonight provides one such example as the Boston Red Sox come to Tampa with a pitcher who would never be given this long of a leash if the club was in contention. Allen Webster has clearly struggled to get big league hitters out in his six starts. He carries a 5.81 ERA and 1.58 WHIP, but it gets even worse from there. Webster has struck out only 18 batters in his 31 innings of work, but has walked 20. He's been lucky to avoid the home run ball, otherwise his numbers could be somewhere in the stratosphere. The Red Sox are letting him figure it out at the major league level because they're focused on the future. Webster could be an important piece in the coming years, but he certainly isn't there yet. The Rays counter with right-hander Jake Odorizzi, who has had a breakthrough season. He's just 9-11 with a 4.23 ERA overall, but his numbers stack up a lot better after April and he's striking out 10 batters per nine innings. He was bombed in his last start giving up eight runs to the Orioles, but I look for Odorizzi to bounce back in a big way against the worst offense in the AL. The Red Sox have long written off 2014, but the Rays are still playing with a chip on their shoulder. I see value here on the Rays today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-29-14 | Los Angeles Dodgers -102 v. San Diego Padres | 2-3 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
6-unit Play Take #961 Los Angeles Dodgers over San Diego Padres (10:10pm EST) The Los Angeles Dodgers are at their high-water mark of the season at 18 games above the .500 mark with a 76-58 record. However, the Dodgers have been viewed as slight underachievers by some and many are tabbing the Nationals as the team to beat in the NL now. I'm not exactly sure where the anti-Dodgers sentiment came from, but this team is right on track with preseason expectations. They are on pace for 92 wins and an NL West title, and will have the best starting rotation heading into any playoff series with Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke and Hyun-Jin Ryu at the top. I'm not sure who their fourth guy would be if they went that route in the postseason, but I'd cast my vote for today's starter Dan Haren. The veteran right-hander hasn't received much attention in 2014, but that's probably because his surface stats aren't very good. He's just 11-10 with a 4.44 ERA in 26 starts, but that doesn't tell the whole story. Haren has been extremely unfortunate with a terrible 66% strand rate and that has accounted for inflation of over a half a run in his ERA. His strikeouts are a bit down, but he doesn't walk very many and can be counted on to keep his team in the game every time out. He's been on a nice roll lately, as Haren is 3-1 with a 2.70 ERA and 0.90 WHIP over his last four starts. Hopefully he can carry that forward into today's start versus the San Diego Padres. The Pads have been playing better since the All-Star break, but this still isn't a good baseball team overall. Part of their struggles was due to injuries, and their top arm in the rotation was one of them. Andrew Cashner has missed most of 2014, but he's back now making his second start after returning from the disabled list. He didn't look sharp in his first outing against the Diamondback as he only struck out one batter in five innings. It may take a few starts to knock off that rust, so the Dodgers potent offense should be able to get some decent swings on Cashner in this one. Los Angeles rates better in every other aspect of the game, so it's a bit surprising to see them as the underdog here. Cashner is probably being bumped up a bit too high with his injury recovery, so we'll gladly scoop up this price on the Dodgers as our Game of the Week. |
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08-29-14 | New York Yankees +105 v. Toronto Blue Jays | 6-3 | Win | 105 | 7 h 43 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #967 New York Yankees over Toronto Blue Jays (7:05pm EST)Â |
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08-28-14 | Minnesota Twins v. Kansas City Royals -144 | Top | 11-5 | Loss | -144 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #912 Kansas City Royals over Minnesota Twins (8:10pm EST) The Kansas City Royals host the Minnesota Twins in the final game of their three-game series in Kaufman Stadium tonight. The Royals are looking for the sweep after a pair of wins in which they allowed just a single run in each. Kansas City is now 26-8 over their last 34 games and has built a 2.5 game lead in the AL Central. They are playing great team baseball with excellent outings from their starting pitchers, near perfect work in the bullpen and timely hits when they need them. Their team chemistry is amongst the best in baseball and it really shows on the field when you watch this team come to work every day. They don't take anything for granted and they have a different hero seemingly every night. Right-hander Jeremy Guthrie makes the start in this one and I have really enjoyed his last few outings. Guthrie isn't a guy I've been high on in the past, but he's on another one of his patented rolls where he transforms into an All-Star caliber pitcher. Over his last four starts he is 3-1 with a 2.82 ERA and has a 17-3 K/BB ratio. The Twins counter with lefty Tommy Milone, who was traded by the A's a month ago. Milone is nothing special and that's why the A's were willing to let him walk even though they like to stockpile pitching. He's nothing more than a mediocre arm that will give you decent innings and keep you in the game. I have the Royals as a much bigger favorite in this one, nearly 30 cents higher. Play Kansas City. |
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08-28-14 | Atlanta Braves -120 v. New York Mets | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #905 Atlanta Braves over New York Mets (7:10pm EST)Â |
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08-28-14 | New York Yankees -121 v. Detroit Tigers | 2-3 | Loss | -121 | 1 h 11 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #907 New York Yankees over Detroit Tigers (1:05pm EST) Just a month ago the Detroit Tigers were sitting comfortably atop the AL Central with an eight-game lead. Then a perfect storm of a red hot Royals run and a Detroit slide came through to temporarily knock the Tigers out of a playoff spot altogether. But with over a month still remaining, the team wasn't worrying as they knew they had the horses to get back to the top of the division. They even added David Price at the trade deadline to bolster the team's rotation and set them up better for a deep playoff run. And then yesterday happened. Price imploded against the Yankees and gave up eight runs and 12 hits in two innings of work in an 8-4 loss. It was the kind of loss that can linger, and that's the last thing the Tigers need right now. It's especially troubling when they have to turn to rookie Kyle Lobstein for a bounce back effort today. The left-hander will make his first start of his career today against the New York Yankees. Lobstein wasn't particularly impressive in the minor leagues, so this is a desperation move by Detroit given their injury situation in the rotation. They'll just hope to get five decent innings from him in this one. However that will turn it over to the bullpen, which has been the second worst in the AL this season. The Yankees will undoubtedly be able to make some noise offensively, so they just need a solid effort by Hiroki Kuroda to get the victory today. It's been a very good season for the 39-year old, and I'm a bit surprised with how well he's held up over the season. He tailed off dramatically at the end of 2013, but there are no signs of a repeat in 2014. This one could get ugly in favor of the Yankees. |
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08-27-14 | Tampa Bay Rays +108 v. Baltimore Orioles | Top | 3-1 | Win | 108 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #967 Tampa Bay Rays over Baltimore Orioles (7:05pm EST) It was inevitable that the Tampa Bay Rays would need to trade away David Price at some point. There's no way a small market team could afford him long-term and he was going to demand somewhere in the $200 million range. But many questioned why the Rays traded him when they did and were even more critical of the package they got back in return for the dominant left-hander. Tampa received major league pitcher Drew Smyly and prospects Nick Franklin and Willy Adames. Most agreed that the prospects weren't of the elite variety and that Smyly was just a middle-of-rotation guy at best. However, the Rays saw something in Smyly that most didn't and they think he can project out as an ace or very close. And so far, Joe Maddon and the staff might be getting him there. In his four starts with Tampa, Smyly has a 1.55 ERA and 0.76 WHIP including a complete game shutout against the dangerous Blue Jays lineup last time out. Could the Rays actually have gotten the better end of this deal? Could Smyly really be an ace in the waiting? Those questions remain to be answered. However, Smyly certainly is throwing the ball well and isn't getting enough attention for it in the betting markets. He'll face another tough opponent in the Orioles today. Baltimore counters with youngster Kevin Gausman, who has been up and down in his first major league season. He's 7-5 with a 3.81 ERA overall, but he needs to be more consistent to reach his full potential. I like this Rays team a lot more than most despite the fact that they are out of contention. One bad run really ended their season, but outside of that they are one of the top teams in the AL. And with Smyly on the hill today, they have no business being an underdog. Take the Rays. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-26-14 | Miami Marlins v. Los Angeles Angels -169 | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #930 Los Angeles Angels over Miami Marlins (10:05pm EST) The Los Angeles Angels have the best record in baseball and they've certainly earned it. They play in the toughest division out there and have endured more than their share of injuries along the way. Garrett Richards was the latest casualty and he's out for the season with an Achilles injury. That's a huge blow to their World Series chances, but it doesn't affect the handicap of today's matchup. Right-hander Matt Shoemaker has been a pleasant surprise for the Halos this season. At 12-4 with a 3.56 ERA and 1.12 WHIP, Shoemaker has actually been a life saver with the injuries the Angels have had in the starting rotation. He's seemingly improved in every start and is becoming more confident as the season goes on, which is encouraging for the stretch run. The Miami Marlins are holding on for dear life in the NL playoff race, but their odds are slim. It's been a nice season for the Fish, but they are still a few pieces away from being a contender. I like today's starter Nathan Eovaldi and he's been pitching well, but facing the Angels lethal lineup is his tallest task of the season. The Angels have the best offense in the AL on a park-adjusted basis and now that Josh Hamilton is hitting again, it's going to get better. The line is big on this one, but I have it closer to -200. Take the Angels. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-26-14 | New York Yankees +106 v. Detroit Tigers | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #917 New York Yankees over Detroit Tigers (7:05pm EST) Who would have thought that Brandon McCarthy would become one of the most impactful trades made this season? He's been fantastic since joining the New York Yankees in early July, going 5-2 with a 1.90 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in eight starts. Without him the Yankees are probably already out of the race, so maybe he can keep them in it a little longer. He'll face a dangerous Tigers team today, but one that has really been struggling of late. Detroit has dropped 12 of 21 and wouldn't qualify for the postseason if the season ended today. They'll send Rick Porcello to the hill to face the Yanks. It's been a career year for the right-hander, but I still can't fully trust him. Porcello is prone to mental lapses and the big inning when the pressure is on. This is a huge series for both teams, and I like the composure of McCarthy much more than Porcello's. There's also a good chance this game comes down to the respective bullpens with both hurlers throwing well. If that's the case, the Yankees will have a huge advantage. Nobody in the Tigers bullpen can be fully relied upon and the Yankees have two of the better relievers in the AL. This line isn't far off, but there is some value with the Yankees. |
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08-26-14 | Oakland A's v. Houston Astros +110 | 2-4 | Win | 110 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #924 Houston Astros (+110) over Oakland A's (8:10pm EST)Â |
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08-25-14 | Milwaukee Brewers v. San Diego Padres +125 | 10-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #956 San Diego Padres over Milwaukee Brewers (10:10pm EST) Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-25-14 | Washington Nationals v. Philadelphia Phillies +137 | 2-3 | Win | 137 | 8 h 60 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #952 Philadelphia Phillies over Washington Nationals (7:05pm EST) There's no question that the Washington Nationals are playing baseball at a high level right now. They've won 12 of 13 and now have the best record in the NL. They finally look like the World Series contender everyone tabbed them as to begin the year. However, the betting markets clearly have factored this in and then some in the betting line. The Philadelphia Phillies cant' wait for the season to be over, but they do have a lot of veterans that also play with pride. Guys like Chase Utley, Cole Hamels and Jimmy Rollins aren't going to just roll over and let the losses pile up. Today's starter A.J. Burnett is also tough as nails and is going to put his all out there in every start. He hasn't had an inspiring season but he has given the Phillies 171 innings and kept his team in the game in most starts. Washington definitely has the better starter in Tanner Roark, but he's not as good as his surface stats would tell you. He's been fortunate with a low BABIP and high strand rate - two variables that usually point towards future regression. The Nationals are going to win this game more than they lose it, but getting +130 at home is too good of a price to pass up on the Phillies. |
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08-24-14 | Seattle Mariners -165 v. Boston Red Sox | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 2 h 21 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #921 Seattle Mariners (-175) over Boston Red Sox (1:35pm EST) The Seattle Mariners go for the sweep in Beantown this afternoon after two impressive wins on Friday and Saturday. On Friday night the M's came from behind to grab a thrilling victory. They trailed 3-0 heading into the ninth inning and scored five runs all with two outs to win the game 5-3. The next day Seattle put up a 7-spot in the fourth inning and that was all they needed in a 7-3 win. Today they look to carry forward their momentum with Hisashi Iwakuma pitching. On most teams, Iwakuma would be the ace of the staff but he plays second fiddle to King Felix. That's probably why he doesn't get enough attention and why we see some great value with him on the hill. Today's line isn't far off from my numbers, but this matchup is more about the energy and attitudes of these teams right now. The Mariners are now in the lead in the second wild card spot and are playing their best baseball of the season. That big win on Friday is the kind of game that brings a team to another level. It's also the kind of loss for the Red Sox that can really suck the life out of the team. Boston sends right-hander Allen Webster to the mound in this matchup, and I have him amongst the worst starting pitchers in the AL right now. Through five starts, the 24-year old carries a 4.73 ERA and is walking 6.1 batters per nine innings. No pitcher is going to get away with that many free passes, especially with a low 4.4 strikeout rate. It's clear Webster needs more seasoning in the minor leagues, but the Sox are just letting him get some big league experience since they are out of contention. Seattle should be able to take advantage and get the series sweep this afternoon. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-23-14 | Houston Astros +143 v. Cleveland Indians | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #975 Houston Astros over Cleveland Indians (7:05pm EST) Collin McHugh still isn't getting enough respect for what he has done in 2014. He enters today's matchup versus the Indians with a 3.00 ERA and 1.10 in 19 starts, and he's done it in the most difficult division in baseball - the AL West. McHugh has also gotten better as the season has worn on and looks like he could be Houston's ace for years to come. The Astros need to get better offensively, but the young guys are improving and I like their lineup a lot more now than I did back in April. They also need some help in the bullpen, but fortunately I don't think they will need much work from them today. The Indians have been playing better baseball recently, but they still haven't been able to gain much ground in the AL playoff race. They are a well-balanced team without any huge weaknesses, but they subtracted pieces at the trade deadline rather than add. That was a little surprising given their position, so it seems like they are more focused on next season than 2014. Danny Salazar toes the rubber in this matchup for his 14th start of the season. It's been a rocky ride for the hard-throwing youngster, but he has the stuff to be elite. The problem is putting it all together and repeating it every five days. I just don't have much confidence in him at the moment and he has no business being a favorite this big with a better pitcher going against him. We'll gladly take a chance with the Astros in this one. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-23-14 | Baltimore Orioles -110 v. Chicago Cubs | 2-7 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 2 m | Show | |
7-unit Play Take #981 Baltimore Orioles over Chicago Cubs (2:20pm EST) You have to give a ton of credit to Baltimore manager Buck Showalter. He has the Orioles 20 games over the .500 mark with a team that isn't as good on paper as a lot of the other clubs in the AL. He also has had to deal with the loss of Matt Wieters for the season, Manny Machado just lost for the year and slugger Chris Davis having a miserable season. But here they are with the biggest divisional lead in baseball and playing better than just about anyone else right now. They ran into a red hot Jake Arrieta yesterday and today face another tough hurler in Kyle Hendricks. The 24-year old rookie has taken the league by storm going 5-1 with a 1.66 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in his first seven starts. The Cubs have to be very pleased with what they've seen from him so far and he's assured a spot in the rotation for 2015. However, Hendricks isn't overpowering and the Orioles are an aggressive team at the plate. I think they can get some good wood on the ball and take Hendricks deep once or twice today. His 1.66 ERA is deceiving as he has a fortunate .232 BABIP against and has an absurd 87% strand rate. Hendricks looks like a solid rotation guy, but some regression is certainly in order. The Cubs will have to contend with right-hander Bud Norris, who is throwing better now than he has in years. Over his last four starts, Norris is 3-0 with a 2.39 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. And those four starts were against the Angels, Blue Jays, Yankees and White Sox, so Norris definitely earned it. The O's have a huge edge when you break down the everyday lineup, the bullpen and defensively. I'd call the pitching matchup a wash, so this line is definitely too short. The Orioles are clearly the right side here and we like it enough to make it a big 7-unit selection. |
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08-22-14 | Miami Marlins -130 v. Colorado Rockies | Top | 13-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #909 Miami Marlins over Colorado Rockies (8:40pm EST) We've made a killing going against the Colorado Rockies this season and there's no reason to stop now. This is simply the worst team in baseball without their two best players on the field. Since the beginning of May, the Rockies are on an abysmal 28-62 run and they cannot wait for the season to end. The Marlins come into Coors still holding onto hope in the wild card race in the NL. At 63-63, they are just four games from the second wild card spot and that has them motivated day in and day out. I really like the pitching matchup today for the Marlins. Henderson Alvarez takes the hill for Miami and his stuff is very well-suited for the high altitude. He does a great job of keeping the ball on the ground and can bring the heat when he needs to. He's also had one of the lower home run rates in the NL over the last couple of seasons as well. The same can't be said of Colorado starter Franklin Morales. He's a fly ball pitcher that has really struggled with his control in 2014. He enters today's game with a 5.04 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in 28 games, which includes some work out of the bullpen. It's a little surprising that Morales is back in the rotation given Colorado's position. They have several good young arms in the minors, and we should see one or two of them up sooner than later. The Marlins offense has been inconsistent this season, but they are a respectable 6th in runs scored in the NL and have been swinging the bats well lately. They should have no problem getting to Morales and exposing a weak Rockies bullpen. Alvarez is in good form and should hold up his end of the bargain, which should lead to a Marlins victory today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-21-14 | Detroit Tigers v. Tampa Bay Rays +106 | 0-1 | Win | 106 | 1 h 19 m | Show | |
7-unit Play Take #964 Tampa Bay Rays over Detroit Tigers (1:10pm EST) There's no question both the Tigers and Rays will be fired up for this afternoon's contest. That's because David Price makes his return to Tampa for the first time since being traded at the end of July. There are certainly no hard feelings from Price's side, but this will be somewhat of an emotional reunion as he meant so much to this organization. I expect him to pitch well in familiar surroundings, but there may be a little bit of extra pressure on him here given the circumstances. The Tigers are playing awful baseball at the moment, going from having a comfortable 6-game lead in the division a few weeks ago to now a game behind the Royals. The bullpen has been a huge problem once again, but the lineup is surprisingly struggling and their team defense is one of the worst in the league. The Rays are pretty much out of the playoff picture, but they aren't the kind of team to just roll over. Manager Joe Maddon is great at keeping the guys focused and also loose at the same time. Alex Cobb might actually be the better of the two starters today, as he is on an absolute roll at the moment. In his last five starts, the right-hander is 3-0 with a miniscule 1.06 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. He also boasts a dominating 40-7 K/BB ratio over that span. The Tigers don't hit righties particularly well, so I expect Cobb to continue his magic today. This game will likely come down to the respective bullpens, and if that's the case the Rays have a large edge. Throw in home field advantage and we really like Tampa Bay as an underdog in this one. Play the Rays as a big 7-unit selection. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-20-14 | Atlanta Braves +106 v. Pittsburgh Pirates | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #901 Atlanta Braves over Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05pm EST) The Atlanta Braves look to beat up on the Pittsburgh Pirates for the third straight day on Wednesday night. Last night the Braves dominated 11-3 on the strength of 14 hits and a strong performance from Aaron Harang. The day before they won 7-3 in Pittsburgh. Atlanta is one of the streakiest teams in baseball and right now they are on an uptick. They've won five straight games and are going for their second consecutive series sweep tonight after dominating Oakland in their last series. Southpaw Alex Wood gets the ball in today's contest. He's put together a very nice 2014 season with a 3.07 ERA and 1.23 WHIP working out of the bullpen and in the starting rotation. He's just 23-years old and learning, but I like how he handles himself and his stuff speaks for itself. The Pirates have a tough lineup, but they haven't been as strong against lefties this season. The Pirates counter with Gerrit Cole, who is making his return from the disabled list today. Cole missed six weeks with a back injury, so he probably won't be as sharp as he usual. Back injuries can be finicky and it remains to be seen if he can be effective as previously. Either way, I think we'll see a shorter outing today from Cole and more innings from the bullpen than normal. That should benefit the Braves. Pittsburgh has now lost seven straight games and is fading from the playoff race quickly. With the way Atlanta has looked over the last week, I think they have an excellent shot to keep the streak going. Let's go Braves. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-19-14 | Kansas City Royals -141 v. Colorado Rockies | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #977 Kansas City Royals over Colorado Rockies (8:40pm EST) We continue to ride the hot streak of the Kansas City Royals once again today. They are now 21-5 in their last 26 contests and have jumped into first place in the AL Central. Ace James Shields makes the start today in Coors Field against the Rockies. Shields has posted his usual solid numbers at 11-6 with a 3.29 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 26 starts. He's backed up by a tremendous defense and one of the best bullpens in the league as well. Shields will see a weaker Rockies lineup that is without Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez, both of whom are on the disabled list. Colorado has been absolutely abysmal when they've been without their top two starts over the last few years, and unfortunately they've missed a ton of time. They've been the worst team in baseball since the end of April and the end of the season can't come soon enough for them. Lefty Tyler Matzek makes his 13th start of the season today and it's been tough for him adjusting to major league hitters. He comes in with a 5.50 ERA and 1.54, which isn't entirely due to pitching in Coors. Matzek actually has better numbers at home than he does on the road, although neither set is impressive. With the way the Royals are hitting, they should be able to attack Matzek early and Shields should keep the lead safe. And if it comes down to the respective bullpens, the Royals have another big edge. Take Kansas City as our 10-unit selection. |
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08-19-14 | Los Angeles Angels -122 v. Boston Red Sox | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
3-unit Play Take #963 Los Angeles Angels over Boston Red Sox (7:10pm EST) With all of the fanfare the Oakland A's have gotten this season for how well they played, it's the Los Angeles Angels that know sit atop the AL West all by themselves. At 73-50 the Angels have the best record in the sport and they have definitely earned it. They play in the toughest division in baseball and they've endured their fair share of injuries along the way. Time will tell if they can fend off the A's and Mariners for the division crown, but there isn't much not to like about the Halos. Jered Weaver takes the mound for this one as in Boston. It hasn't been a great year for the 31-year old, but at 13-7 with a 3.66 ERA it's hard to argue with the results. Weaver has been through a lot in his career, and it's when you think he's starting to regress that he rises above and gets the job done. He's not as dominant as he was a couple of seasons ago, but Weaver knows how to pitch and continues to keep hitters off balance with his assortment of pitches. The Red Sox are the worst hitting team in the AL and it's not getting any better. The team is just waiting for this nightmare season to end and we still have over a month remaining. Allen Webster was given a job in the rotation so the Red Sox could take a closer look at him for next season. So far, it hasn't been good. He has a 4.79 ERA in four starts and has a hideous 10-16 K/BB ratio in 20.2 innings. Webster has good stuff and may eventually be a quality big league pitcher, but he has a long way to go. The Angels have one of the scariest lineups out there, so I'd be very surprised is Webster can get through five full innings today. The Angels have the edge in every phase of the game and should cruise to a victory here. Take the Halos. |
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08-18-14 | Kansas City Royals -161 v. Minnesota Twins | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #911 Kansas City Royals over Minnesota Twins (8:10pm EST) We said it yesterday when we cashed a ticket with the Royals, but we'll reiterate here once again. Kansas City has excellent team chemistry and it's helping this club rack up wins of late. They are now 20-5 in their last 25 contests and most of their wins haven't been close. Different guys have stepped up each day and this team is extremely confident at the moment. Jason Vargas takes the hill and looks to keep things moving along for the Royals. Vargas was brilliant in his last start as he threw a complete game shutout against the potent Oakland A's lineup. It's been a very good season overall for the right-hander as he's 9-5 with a 3.45 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 22 starts. He'll face a mediocre at best Twins lineup that traded away Josh Willingham and Kendrys Morales just a couple of weeks ago. They are also just 6-14 in their last 20 home games overall. The Twins go with 24-year old Trevor May in today's matchup. He's just made two big league appearances so far and they couldn't have gone much worse. The first outing was a start in which he lasted just two innings and walked seven batters without registering a strikeout. He gave up four runs in that start and then followed that up with a relief appearance where he yielded two more runs in 2.1 innings of work. It seems like it's more than just nerves for May who has decent numbers in Triple-A this season. He's always had control issues and the problem is being exacerbated at the big league level. The Royals hitters aren't the most patient as a group, but with as wild as May has been they should be able to put up a crooked number or two. We're firing with the Royals today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-17-14 | Kansas City Royals -104 v. Minnesota Twins | 12-6 | Win | 100 | 2 h 8 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #975 Kansas City Royals over Minnesota Twins (2:10pm EST) If there's a club out there with more team chemistry than the Kansas City Royals, I haven't seen it yet. The Royals seemingly always find ways to win, and now that we've seen it two seasons in a row we know that it isn't a fluke. Kansas City wins with solid fundamentals and managing. They have a nice starting rotation, excellent bullpen and one of the best defenses in baseball. They hit when they need to and they don't rely on one or two guys to carry them. It's a different hero every night and they like it that way. It's all paid off as the Royals have been one of the hottest teams in baseball of late, with a 19-5 mark over their last 24 contests. Right-hander Jeremy Guthrie will be tasked with keeping the roll going against the Twins today. Guthrie has had an up and down season in 2014, but I like the way he's throwing right now despite giving up four runs last time out. He went the full nine innings the start before that and held the A's scoreless in six innings two starts ago. He also has a healthy 14-2 K/BB ratio over his last three starts combined. The Twins have been slowly dying this season after a decent start. They are now 11 games under the .500 mark and are more focused on the future than the present. Lefty Tommy Milone gets the nod here and I'm not a big fan of his. His peripheral numbers haven't been good all season mainly because his stuff is mediocre at best. The A's knew it and that's why they unloaded him at the trade deadline. With the way the Royals are playing, this line is clearly too short. |
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08-17-14 | Houston Astros +127 v. Boston Red Sox | 8-1 | Win | 127 | 2 h 37 m | Show | |
8-unit Play Take #969 Houston Astros over Boston Red Sox (1:35pm EST) Once again we call Houston's number and look to cash a ticket with the Astros. Overall they've been a good moneymaker for us and tonight they send one of the more underrated pitchers in the AL to the mound. That would be right-hander Collin McHugh. He hasn't received much run support, but McHugh owns a very nice 3.08 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 18 starts for the Stros this season. He's been getting better in each start and is quietly becoming a legitimate top-of-the-rotation type starter for Houston. He has a devastating changeup that has kept hitters off balance all season long and his confidence is growing by the day. It's hard to pass up a big underdog price tag on a pitcher as good as McHugh, because it usually has some value. The Red Sox aren't too focused on winning this season and their offense has been the biggest reason. They are currently ranked dead last in the AL in runs scored with less than four per game. Joe Kelly goes for the Red Sox as he makes his third start with Boston. His first two starts have been a little bit shaky as he's walked more batters than he has struck out overall. Those were both on the road against NL teams in interleague play, so this will be his first true start in the AL. I imagine Kelly will have a little more nerves than usual pitching in Fenway with his new team. I'm not too crazy about his stuff overall as he maxes out at the #4 or #5 spot in a team's starting rotation. The Astros lineup isn't spectacular, but it's a lot better than it was earlier this season. McHugh should be able to get the job done here and we have a great chance to make this underdog a winner. Take Houston as our 8-unit Underdog Game. |
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08-16-14 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Washington Nationals -151 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
4-unit Play Take #904 Washington Nationals over Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05pm EST) The Washington Nationals are finally playing the way that everyone expected when the 2014 season began. They've won nine of 14 and now have a fairly comfortable six-game lead in the NL East over the Braves. The Nats don't have any big weaknesses and don't rely heavily on one or two guys to carry them. It's a well-built team that is starting to become the favorites in the NL according to some of the baseball experts. I still think the Dodgers have the better all-around squad, but the Nats are playing better right now and their confidence is growing. Today they get a banged up Pittsburgh squad that is trying to stay in the hunt until they can get fully healthy. Superstar Andrew McCutchen is on the disabled list with a rib injury and he's the heart and soul of the club. No team could have a bigger loss than him. The pitching matchup today favors Washington by a pretty hefty margin despite what the ERAs say. Gio Gonzalez is a much better hurler than Jeff Locke eight days a week and Pittsburgh has a really tough time with southpaws. The line on this game is nearly 20-cents too short, so we're all over the home team today. Take the Nationals with confidence. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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