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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-06-22 | Suns v. Clippers OVER 229.5 | Top | 109-113 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
Even with nothing left to play for, Phoenix still won handily last night, beating the similarly disinterested Lakers 121-110. Both Devin Booker and DeAndre Ayton “went off,” combining to shoot 22 of 36 from the field and scoring 54 points. As a team, it was impressive that the Suns scored 121 points despite attempting only nine free throws. The Suns know they are the #1 seed in the West for the playoffs, the Clippers know they are headed for the play-in tournament and will be the 8-seed. For LA, that means they will have two shots to make the playoffs and only need to win once. They could face the Suns in the first round. Despite having nothing to play for, the Clippers have performed well down the stretch. In a game where they rested starters, they scored 153 on Milwaukee. Then they beat the Pelicans 119-100 on Sunday, which was a win for us. Before beating the Pelicans, the Clippers had gone Over in five straight. Four of those five games saw at least 236 total points scored. The Suns are one of the top offensive teams in the league. Given the recent scoring outputs from both teams, how could you not go Over here? |
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04-05-22 | Hurricanes v. Sabres OVER 6 | Top | 2-4 | Push | 0 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
It comes as a surprise that the Sabres have a better record then the Hurricanes over the last 10 games. Buffalo has won or hung tough in their last 9 games, even against top teams, but this will be a difficult match-up for them today. The Sabres commonly give up 4 or 5 goals a night, and will face the best defense in the league this evening. The Hurricanes are well-rested, and looking to get back on track for the play-offs. Even through this sub-par stretch the Hurricanes have limited the opposition on offense. Look for the Canes to take advantage of a weak Sabres defense and run up the total. While I’ve had success with the Sabres on the puckline, today is all about the total. It would be a mistake to underestimate the Sabres’ scoring abilities at the moment. They have managed at least 3 goals against just about every top team lately. Look for today’s total to go over. |
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04-02-22 | Stars v. Sharks OVER 5.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 22 h 10 m | Show |
Going by former match-ups, the Sharks should steal this game, but the Stars are on fire at the moment. With Dallas still in the picture for a wildcard spot, they should be the more inspired team on Saturday. The Stars have won 5 of 6, and other than the games vs. the Ducks, have faced stiff competition. They have been very sharp on the road, and have held opponents to under 3 goals against over this stretch. The Sharks have lost 3 of 4, and have struggled on offense all season. They have also lost 4 of their last 5 games at home. None the less, the Sharks’ role from here until season’s end is spoiler, and Dallas is a team that can really be affected. Every victory is absolutely critical for the Stars at this point. San Jose can still pull out a good effort, and here is an opportunity to show it. I am not sold on a victory for San Jose here, but I think the Sharks will keep this game close. The total is quite low. Take the Over. |
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04-01-22 | Pacers v. Celtics OVER 223.5 | Top | 123-128 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
For the first time in over two months, the Celtics are on a losing streak. They’ve dropped two in a row, an overtime decision at Toronto then a back and forth game at home to Miami. Oddsmakers like their chances of bouncing back tonight though. The C’s are huge favorites at home against also-ran Indiana. Perhaps the reason that Boston has lost two in a row has something to do with the loss of Robert Williams? He is their best defender. Yet in the two losses, the Celtics only gave up 106 points in regulation (both games). They should have no problem scoring here against an Indiana team that has lost five in a row and given up 125 or more points four straight times. The Pacers’ only had nine players available Wednesday and were eliminated from playoff contention long ago. There’s no reason to think they’ll try at the defensive end tonight, or for the rest of the season. The Over has hit all four times this year when Indiana is a road underdog of 12.5 or more points. It’s 2-0 when Boston is a home favorite of 12.5 or more points. The Pacers can at least score though. They’ve scored 241 points the last two games and had two 38-point quarters in the last one. With Williams out for Boston, this game is going Over. |
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04-01-22 | Predators v. Sabres OVER 6 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
Buffalo has been winning more than losing lately and no one has defeated them by more than a goal in 7 games. 6 of those 7 games have gone into overtime. The Sabres have scored 21 goals in 6 games; not bad for a team that has averaged 2.7 goals a game for the season. They have also allowed 22 goals in that time, with the total going over frequently. The Preds, whose mixed play may have them on the outside looking in as far as play-offs go, have won 2 straight. The over has figured in 8 of 10 games. Other than in a pair of losses to Vegas and LA, the Preds have been a bit of a scoring machine, and should have success with the Sabres’ 26th rated defense. The Predators’ goals against average has been nothing to be proud of lately, and the usually dependable Saros has had some rough outings. I am not counting the Sabres out in this matchup. Look for a wide open game and take the over. |
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03-31-22 | Clippers v. Bulls OVER 222.5 | Top | 130-135 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
The Bulls are just looking to stay in the Eastern Conference top six at this point. They’re tied with Toronto for fifth, two games up on seventh place Cleveland. In the West, the Clippers are pretty well “stuck” in eighth, four games ahead of ninth place New Orleans, but 5.5 games back of Minnesota. Finishing 8th is fine as it’ll give LA two shots in the play-in round to make the playoffs. The Clippers had lost five in a row before coming back from 25 down to defeat Utah Tuesday night. The Bulls also won on Tuesday, albeit by a much more comfortable margin. The final score in Washington was 107-94. The last three Clippers games have all gone Over. The last three Bulls games have all gone Under. Something will have to give in that regard tonight. Paul George is back for LA, which is huge. He scored 34 points in 31 minutes against the Jazz. Chicago has three scorers that can lead the way on any given night: DeRozan, Vucevic and LaVine. Neither team impressed me much at the defensive end. The Clippers just allowed Utah to shoot 55%. In four of the five games before that, they gave up at least 120 points. The Bulls have allowed 120 or more six times this month. The Over is 13-5 in their home games this season when the total is 220 or more. Take the Over. |
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03-31-22 | Penguins v. Wild UNDER 6.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
The Wild are playing play-off style hockey very successfully and have allowed 2 goals or fewer in their last 7 games. This has come at the cost of the offense, with no huge goal-scoring outbursts, but with 7 wins in a row, who is going to argue. The Penguins did have a huge goal scoring outburst vs the Red Wings, but have had difficulty scoring on good teams. They have also lost 3 of 4, managing only 3 goals in 2 games vs. the Rangers. This game features the 4th ranked defense (Penguins) vs. a much improved one, with solid goal-tending on each side. The total is high given the match-up. Take the Under today. |
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03-30-22 | Magic v. Wizards OVER 220.5 | Top | 110-127 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
Orlando has long been out of playoff contention and is tied for the worst record in the NBA at 20-56. They’re just playing out the string at this point, which means you should expect little to no defense. At least their games should be entertaining to watch! Washington is still technically alive for the playoffs, but last night’s loss to the Bulls has them on “life support.” They are six games back with seven to play. The chance of them making up that deficit ranges from slim to none. But again, I expect this game to be entertaining and high scoring. The Wizards are 14-4 to the Over this season when at home and the total is 220 points or higher. They didn’t shoot all that well last night, making just 23.1% of their threes, so it should be a bounce back in that regard tonight. They scored 104, 102 and 112 in winning the first three meetings of the season vs. the Magic. The Magic, who are usually out of contention this time of year, are 30-12 Over the last three seasons when facing a team that has a losing record in the second half of the season. Against Cleveland, they missed 6 of 13 free throws and 27 of 37 three-pointers. It’ll be better shooting tonight. Take the Over. |
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03-30-22 | Jets v. Sabres OVER 6 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
I like the Sabres right now and have been riding them successfully for a few games. Losing 4-0, they bounced back for a win last time out, and they’ve won or stayed close in their last 6 matches. Buffalo has been scoring goals in handfuls; 20 in their last 5 games. They have also allowed 19, making them an attractive “over” selection. The Jets are kinda, sorta, in the race for a wild card spot, and are finally playing closer to their potential. They’ve won 2 in a row and 7 of 10, and have scored 4 or more goals in 3 of 4 games, so should be able to pot a few vs the Sabres. The Jets are not the best road team and have been a very inconsistent team this season. They have some real fire-power, but sometimes just don’t seem to show up. Their usually stand-out goalie, Hellebuyck, has been inconsistent this year, and the Jets’ defense is just middle of the pack. A total of 6 is available, which is on the low side for these two teams. Look for a run and gun style meeting.Take the Over. |
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03-29-22 | Senators v. Predators OVER 6 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
Talk about mood swings. The Preds’ last 6 games have all gone over, but they’ve alternated between high-scoring run and gun style victories with lop-sided losses. Not what you need for a team still entertaining play-off dreams. Facing the Senators, this should be a very winnable game, but considering Nashville's defense lately, nothing is certain. On the plus side, the Predators have been a very good home team this year. The Senators struggle on the road and are off a tough shoot-out loss to the Panthers. It has been a long season for a young team in a rebuild, but they are capable of some surprising offense at times and are healthier than they have been recently. Considering how they showed against Florida, I think they will hold their own against the mercurial Predators. The total is 6 today. This one will go over.. |
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03-29-22 | Pistons v. Nets OVER 229.5 | Top | 123-130 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
I expect lots of points to be scored in this game. In their first home game with Kyrie Irving, the Nets only managed to score 110 points. Irving had only 16 points, on 6 of 22 shooting. He was 1 of 9 on three point attempts. Kevin Durant was 9 of 24 overall and 3 of 11 on 3PA. The team shot 7 of 34 from three point range. I bring all that up, because it’s very reasonable that the Nets will shoot better tonight. Even with the poor shooting from the last game, they’ve still hit 50% from the field over the last five games. There hasn’t been a single game since March 6th where Brooklyn hasn’t scored at least 110 points. Six times they’ve scored 120 or more. Tonight they face a Pistons team that is allowing 114.7 points on the road. Most teams are not as prolific as the Nets. But the fact Brooklyn gives up 111.9 points per game means Detroit has a chance here. From the last game, the Pistons are also due to shoot better from three-point land. They made only 8 of 29 in Sunday’s loss to the Knicks. The Over is 6-2 in the Pistons’ previous eight road contests. That’s the way you should play this one. |
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03-29-22 | St Bonaventure v. Xavier UNDER 139.5 | Top | 77-84 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
We’re also down to the “Final Four” in the NIT this week as tonight the two semi finals take place, followed by the Final on Thursday. St. Bonaventure has pulled off three consecutive upsets to get to this point. The Bonnies have beaten Colorado, Oklahoma and Virginia, a list of victories made all the more impressive by the fact they all came on the road. Over their last five games, the Bonnies have held opponents to an average of 61.5 points. Xavier’s three NIT wins were all at home and two of them were by a total of six points. Of course, St. Bonaventure’s last two wins have been by a combined three points. The winner here is probably going to be an underdog to the winner of Washington State-Texas A&M. This game is being played at Madison Square Garden. Worth talking about is how St. Bonaventure only averages 62.7 points per game, away from home, for the year. They were above that against Colorado and Oklahoma, but only scored 52 vs. Virginia in what was a very low-scoring contest. The Bonnies are 4-0 Under the last four times they’ve been favored. Xavier is on a 10-4-1 Under run its last 15 neutral site games as an underdog. Play the Under. |
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03-28-22 | Nuggets v. Hornets OVER 231 | Top | 113-109 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 41 m | Show |
Denver is in a dogfight for a top six spot in the West. One thing we can probably count on from them tonight is good shooting. Six of the last eight games have seen them finish higher than 50%. Last time out they did not as they only made 8 of their 31 three point attempts. I expect better three-point shooting out of the Nuggets tonight as they take on a Hornets team that gives up an Eastern Conference high 114.4 points per game. Charlotte shot only 42% from the field last night and still won - 119-110 over Brooklyn. My expectation is that they too will shoot better here, compared to the last game. The Hornets are in the top five in the league in offense, averaging 114.8 points per game. Their games, on average, are the highest scoring in the league this season. The Nuggets had previously gone Over five straight times before the win over the Thunder on Saturday. The Over is 7-1 in the Hornets’ previous eight games against teams sporting a winning record. That’s the way I’m playing this one. |
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03-27-22 | Miami-FL v. Kansas OVER 147 | Top | 50-76 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
Kansas is the only 1-seed still standing in this NCAA Tournament. They’ll take on a 10-seed, Miami, in the Elite 8. It’s seemingly a favorable matchup for the Jayhawks, but I’m not confident in laying the points. I played against Kansas in the Sweet 16, making my Providence my 10* Game of the Month. The Jayhawks shot only 39.3 percent from the floor, but relied on their defense, holding the Friars to 33.8 percent for a 66-61 win. The underdog did cover and that’s all I was looking for. Expect the shooting to improve - from both Kansas and the opponent - today. Miami is a much bigger offensive threat than anyone that the Jayhawks have faced so far in this tournament. The Hurricanes are in the Top 20 in offensive efficiency, just like Kansas, nationally. The ‘Canes also relied on outstanding three-point defense in the Sweet 16. They held Iowa State, a poor offensive team to begin with, to 4 of 23. Probably can’t count on doing that to Kansas. Kansas is coming off its second lowest-scoring game since January. So they are due for a bounce back offensively. Miami is 7-3 Over its last 10 neutral site games as an underdog. Take the Over here. |
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03-27-22 | Lightning v. Islanders UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 3 h 3 m | Show |
The Lightning seem to have struck out lately as far as offense goes, and wins for that matter, averaging 2 goals scored or less in their last 4 games, and losing more than they have won in their last 10. Their defense is still on form, as they’ve allowed just 11 goals in 6 games. Don’t look for the offense to break out today against a tough Islanders side. The Isles lost last night allowing a very rare 6 goals against to the Bruins. Look for them to get back to their tight checking and low scoring style today. Sorokin is likely in net for the Isles today which is good news, but don’t expect much offense today. This is still the league’s 24th ranked offense. The Islanders have flashed a couple of overs lately, but that was against poor teams. The Lightning have seen a steady diet of unders. Look for a typical effort from these two defense-dominant teams, both featuring very good goal-tending. Take the under in this match-up. |
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03-26-22 | Arkansas v. Duke UNDER 147.5 | Top | 69-78 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
Duke was involved in the lone Sweet 16 game to go Over the total, a 78-73 win over a Texas Tech that rated #1 in the country in defensive efficiency. Coach K’s career is still alive and kicking as his Blue Devils put up an impressive 49 points in the second half of that game. Save for St. Peter’s winning last night, the biggest shocker from the Sweet 16 was Arkansas beating Gonzaga. The Razorbacks went out and beat the #1 team in the country by a score of 74-68 despite being 9.5 point underdogs. The Hogs have now stayed Under in two straight games after their previous seven all went Over. Their second round game was very low-scoring (beat NMSU 53-48) and featured poor shooting from both teams. Arkansas is not a good three-point shooting team, making only 30.5% of its attempts for the year. We know Duke can score and eight of the Blue Devils’ last nine games have gone Over. But can they continue this red-hot shooting we’ve seen from them in this tournament? All three games have seen Coach K’s team make at least 51% of their field goal attempts. Arkansas holds teams to around 40%. Duke shot 70% percent from the field against Texas Tech in the second half and made its last eight shots. No way that carries over to tonight. There were only 62 points scored in the first half of that game. Arkansas is shooting only 39.4% overall its last five games and none of those contests have seen more than 146 points scored. |
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03-26-22 | Islanders v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 4 m | Show |
A pair of defense-first teams face off on Saturday, in a game that should feature top notch goal-tending as well. Both net-minder s for the Islanders are lights out lately, with the Bruins’ duo impressing as well. The Islanders are back to successfully playing their tight-checking and low-scoring style, and face a Bruins team who’ve won 6 of 7and limited the opposition to 2 goals or less in each victory. Of note, Bergeron is questionable for Saturday’s game. The Bruins are middle of the pack on offense but the Isles are low on the list at 24th. Both teams feature very strong Pks. Look for playoff style hockey, down and dirty in the trenches, and take the under. |
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03-25-22 | Blue Jackets v. Jets OVER 6 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
The Jets are off a loss, and will play their 2nd game in two nights. They gave up 5 goals to Ottawa, and will looking for a much different result on Friday. Winnipeg cannot afford to lose 2 in a row against poor teams, and hope for a wild card spot, so look for extra motivation. The over has been pretty consistent lately and against the Blue Jackets is a good bet. The Jackets have one of the worst defenses in the league, but can still light up the goal light with considerable frequency. They also have a history of high totals, so getting Friday's game at 6 is very positive. Look for lots of offense and take the over in this match-up. |
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03-25-22 | St. Peter's v. Purdue OVER 135.5 | Top | 67-64 | Loss | -110 | 93 h 27 m | Show |
For the second year in a row, we’ve got ourselves a 15-seed in the Sweet 16. Last year was Oral Roberts. This year’s “Cinderella” is St. Peter’s, a team that finished the regular season second in the MAAC (behind Iona). Prior to last year, there had been just one 15-seed ever to make it to a regional semifinal. That was Florida Gulf Coast in 2013. The Peacocks have won and covered nine in a row. Their next test is a big one as they face Purdue on Friday. The third-seeded Boilermakers own wins over Yale and Texas so far. They are one of the top offensive teams in the country, ranking second in the country in efficiency and averaging 79.8 points per game. St. Peter’s is pretty good defensively, but they will have their chances offensively in this game as well. Purdue owns the second lowest defensive efficiency rating of the Sweet 16. For those reasons, I am on the Over in this one. St. Peter’s first two games went Over. The Over is 6-1 in their last seven games as an underdog. Purdue games average 148.3 points. This is a low total for them. The last game was lower, but they were up against a Texas team that was among the nation’s leaders in scoring defense. That game went Over as the Boilermakers scored 81. |
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03-24-22 | Bulls v. Pelicans OVER 228.5 | Top | 109-126 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
Two teams battling to hold onto their respective playoff positions will meet Thursday in the Big Easy as the Bulls take on the Pelicans. The Bulls have gone cold since the All-Star Break, losing 9 of 12, and as a result their status as a top six team in the East is very much in doubt right now. In the West, The Pelicans are just trying to get into the play-in round, currently occupying the last spot. The Bulls lost on Tuesday and in doing so gave up 126 points. The team’s defensive efficiency has taken a real hit in the second half of the year. Three times in the last four games Chicago has given up at least 125 points. I do think we’ll see them score more than the 98 points they put up in Milwaukee. Given the defensive lapses, it’s odd that the Under is 8-1 in the Bulls' previous nine contests. Similarly, it’s strange that the Pelicans’ last three games have all stayed Under. But those three games were all played on the road. New Orleans had scored at least 115 in five consecutive games before scoring just 103 in a loss at Charlotte Monday night. The Pelicans fell apart offensively in the fourth quarter (only 19 points) after leading most of the game. The Pelicans’ leading scorer Brandon Ingram, who has missed the last eight games, might return tonight. That would be the icing on the cake. Regardless, look for this one to go Over, which is something that has happened each of the last five times the Bulls have faced a team with a losing record. |
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03-24-22 | Arkansas v. Gonzaga OVER 154.5 | Top | 74-68 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 28 m | Show |
The first Sweet 16 game - which is between Arkansas and Gonzaga - should be a high scoring affair. These teams are a combined 0-4 ATS in this Tournament, though I’m sure neither cares about it. Gonzaga has actually had to come from behind to defeat both Georgia State and Memphis. Arkansas was in control most of the time vs. Vermont and New Mexico State, but won by a combined nine points. The last Arkansas game saw some truly woeful shooting - from both teams. The Razorbacks and NMSU combined to make only nine threes and shot roughly 30% for the game. With Gonzaga involved here, you know there’s going to be a sizable increase in offensive productivity. The Zags lead the country in scoring at 87.8 points per game. They’ve scored 93 and 82 in the two tournament wins thus far. Routinely, this team will shoot better than 50 percent from the floor. Arkansas had seen seven straight games go Over the total before facing New Mexico State. During that run, they scored 74 or more points six times. With the underdog Razorbacks due for an uptick an offense (after such a poor shooting night vs. NMSU) and favored Gonzaga being its usual self, expect this game to go Over the total. |
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03-23-22 | 76ers v. Lakers OVER 229.5 | Top | 126-121 | Win | 100 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
The Lakers actually got a win Monday as LeBron beat his old team (Cleveland) 131-120, going for 38-11-12. This may not be as good of a spot for LA however, as they are 0-6 against the spread this season off an upset win as an underdog and 2-9 ATS off a win by 10 or more points. The Lakers need the win though as they are just trying to make it into the play-in round. Currently, they have a three-game lead over 10th place San Antonio. Their opponents for Wednesday, the 76ers, have moved into the top four in the Eastern Conference, surging after the James Harden trade. With Harden or Joel Embiid, the 76ers just beat the East-leading Heat, 113-106 on Monday. They have not lost back-to-back games since the Harden trade and have won 10 of 14 overall. In the “Harden-era,” there had previously been two poor scoring efforts, one without him (⅗ @ Miami) and the other without Embiid (3/20 @ Toronto). Other than those, the Sixers have scored at least 110 points in all but one game since the trade. Both Harden and Embiid are expected to play Wednesday night (listed as probable). The Lakers’ last three games have all gone Over the total with them averaging 126 PPG but also giving up 123.3 PPG. I expect this to be a high-scoring game as well. The Over is 20-8 this season when the Lakers face a team from the Eastern Conference. Go Over. |
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03-23-22 | Devils v. Maple Leafs OVER 6.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
The Leafs upgraded their defense, but not their goaltending, so keeping the puck out of the net is still a big issue. 3rd time was not a charm for rookie net-minder Kallgren, and he will very likely be in the net on Wednesday. The Leafs are the 3rd ranked offense in the league, but are just 5-5 in their last 10 games, and have seen the total go over in 7 of them. New Jersey, hot off a huge win vs. the Rangers, is playing in back to back games and on the road on Wednesday. The Devils also have serious defense and goalie issues, but have a young, dynamic, Hughes-led offense that can put the puck in the net. They have had very little luck on the road lately, losing 6 straight, and the last three by identical 6-3 scores, but don't look for them to be shut-out. Take this one to go over. |
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03-21-22 | USC Upstate v. South Alabama OVER 141.5 | Top | 79-83 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
So this is a second round matchup in the “The Basketball Classic.” USC Upstate won its first round game in upset fashion, defeating Appalachian State on the road, as a 10.5 point underdog. The final score was 80-74. South Alabama beat SE Louisiana 70-68, but could not cover the nine-point spread. South Alabama has some pretty solid defensive numbers, but I expect this to be a pretty high-scoring game. The Jaguars are overdue for a solid showing at the offensive end. After all, they do average 75.4 points at home. USC Upstate is not any kind of defensive force. But the underdog Spartans have scored 70 or more in five of their last six games, including each of the last four. It’s going to take plenty of points to outlast them. South Alabama ranks 140th in defensive efficiency, USC Upstate ranks 303rd. USC Upstate also likes to play pretty fast, which means there will be plenty of possessions in this game. They are also 12-4 Over on the road this year as well as 16-5 Over as an underdog. Look for those trends to continue Monday. |
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03-20-22 | TCU v. Arizona OVER 143 | Top | 80-85 | Win | 100 | 29 h 20 m | Show |
Two teams coming off blowout wins meet in the second round with top seed Arizona facing off with 9-seed TCU. Of the two, TCU actually won by a larger margin. The Horned Frogs impressively defeated Seton Hall 69-42 as a 1.5 point underdog. Arizona didn’t even cover, despite winning by 17, as they were 21.5 point favorites over Wright State, who was in the “First Four.” The last six TCU games have all stayed Under the total. However, here they are up against an Arizona team that is not only 6-1 to the Over in its last seven games, but is also third in the country in scoring at 84.6 points per game. TCU will not hold Arizona to 28.8% shooting like it did to Seton Hall. The Wildcats are shooting 53.5% over their most recent five games. But the top seed probably can’t count on holding the underdog Horned Frogs to 34.8% like it did to Wright State on Friday. The Over has hit each of the previous six times Arizona has been off an ATS loss (which they are here). TCU is 5-0 Over the previous five times it has been off a game in which it allowed fewer than 50 points. Go with the Over in the final second round matchup of the weekend. |
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03-20-22 | Suns v. Kings OVER 231.5 | Top | 127-124 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
The Suns and Kings are likely to engage in a high-scoring shootout on Sunday. Over its last four games, all of which have ended up being wins, the Suns have scored at least 129 points. The Kings only scored 97 in their last game, but have also given up 126 or more in three of their last four contests. Before getting held to 97 by Boston, who is arguably the top defensive team in the NBA, Sacramento had scored 112 or higher in six of seven games. So expect them to shoot better tonight than they did on Friday. The thing is, the Kings were on pace for another high-scoring effort, but only managed 18 points in the fourth quarter. Both teams average more than 110 PPG on the season. Phoenix is top four in the league at 114.7 PPG. Sacramento is second to last in points allowed, giving up 115.7 PPG. So this should be another big offensive game for the Western Conference leading Suns, who are just three wins away from clinching home court advantage for the playoffs. They won’t take it easy on the Kings and those last four wins have come by an average of 22.3 points. The Over is 21-8 in the Kings last 29 games following a double-digit loss at home. |
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03-19-22 | Michigan v. Tennessee OVER 135.5 | Top | 76-68 | Win | 100 | 24 h 17 m | Show |
Michigan won by double digits on Thursday, but it was by no means easy against Colorado State. The Wolverines got off to a poor start and trailed in the first half by as many as 12 points. But a stunning turnaround after halftime resulted in a 75-63 win for the Maize and Blue. The Wolverines probably can’t count on their second round opponent shooting 35.4% from the field. That’s what Colorado State did and it was even worse in the second half when the Rams scored just 27 points. Tennessee shot 60% and scored 88 points in its first round matchup with Longwood. Now Michigan won’t be as overmatched as Longwood was, but the Wolverines usually aren’t that great defensively either. They are in fact just 77th in the country in defensive efficiency. The Volunteers streak of holding teams under 40% shooting probably comes to an end here, however. Nine of their last ten opponents have shot 39.6% or less. Michigan shoots well, is 19th in offensive efficiency, and will make more threes here than they did in the first round game (4). The Over has cashed the previous four times that Michigan has been an underdog. Make it five straight. |
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03-19-22 | Devils v. Oilers OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
The Oilers are hot and the Devils are not. There has been very little hospitality for the Devils on their western swing, as they have lost the first two games by identical 6-3 scores. Is it goalie issues or trouble on defense? It is not uncommon for New Jersey to struggle on the road; they are a very ugly 8-20 to date. Now facing the Oilers, it will be interesting to see this very young team’s response. They are not without skill on offense, scoring 3 each against the Canucks and Flames, but that 27th rated defense is a real poke in the eye. The Oilers have won 4 straight in Edmonton, and are going for the home-town sweep on Saturday. They beat a couple of contenders, then beat up on a pair of under-achievers, scoring 13 goals in those two games. The Oilers’ defense is not that much better than the Devils’. A case in point: Saturday’s starter Koskinen gave up 5 goals against Detroit in his last outing. It is very likely that the Oilers will outlast the Devils on Saturday, and they are a big favorite. I expect lots of offense on both sides. Take the Over in this match-up. |
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03-18-22 | Clippers v. Jazz OVER 217.5 | Top | 92-121 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 41 m | Show |
The Clippers are probably safe when it comes to landing in the play-in round, but they have lost five of seven with the only wins coming against the Wizards and Pistons. Things get no easier for them on Friday, having to go to Salt Lake City to face the Jazz. Utah is a disappointing fourth in the West right now, actually tied with Dallas. They are 12.5 games behind Phoenix for the top spot, so forget about that. They are 4.5 back of Memphis for second and 3.5 back of Golden State, deficits that can be made up. In the last game, the Jazz put up 125 in a win over Chicago. Six of their last eight games have stayed Under, but the Jazz continue to score. They’ve averaged 119 over the last five games. That’s even more than their season average of 114, which is top six in the league. So count on Utah scoring their average on Friday. If so, we won’t need a ton of points from the Clippers to send this one Over the total. LA averages 106.9 points per game, which would be enough if the Jazz also hit their average. The last three Clippers-Jazz games have all gone Over. There have been 230, 250 and 227 total points scored in those games. Something similar here? I think so! |
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03-18-22 | Jacksonville State v. Auburn OVER 137.5 | Top | 61-80 | Win | 100 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
Second seeded Auburn looks to avoid the same fate that befell its SEC brethren Kentucky (a fellow 2-seed) on Friday. The Tigers should certainly avoid the upset against Jacksonville State here as the Gamecocks did not even win their Conference Tournament! Instead, they got the Atlantic Sun’s automatic berth because they were regular season champs and the conference tourney champs (Bellarmine) were ineligible for the Big Dance! But I don’t think I can trust Auburn minus all these points here. The Tigers have failed to cover five of the last six games, and despite bagging their first regular season SEC title since 1999, they were “one and done” in the conference tourney, losing to a Texas A&M team that didn’t even make the NCAA Tournament. So let’s look at the total. Auburn averages 78.7 points per game and should have no problems getting to the basket in this matchup. Jacksonville State shoots 47.2% overall as a team and made 40% of its threes in conference play. Am I confident they’ll hit those percentages today? Not really. But they’ll score enough! Auburn is 9-2 Over its last 11 neutral court games where the total is 135 to 139.5. That’s the way I think this one is headed. |
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03-17-22 | Creighton v. San Diego State UNDER 120 | Top | 72-69 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 28 m | Show |
A low total here, but rightly so. San Diego State has the second most efficient defense in the country and allows 57.7 points per game. Not to be outdone, their opponents for Thursday, Creighton, give up only 65.9 points per game. Creighton made a run all the way to the Big East Tournament Final, solidifying its place in the field of 68. Along the way, they held top seed Providence to only 58 points. The Bluejays may have lost the final, but that was a 54-48 game vs. Villanova, precisely the kind of score we’re looking for today. San Diego State’s last three games have seen 99, 121 and 105 total points scored. All three went Under. The Aztecs don’t score a ton. We’re talking about only a 61.3 point average when playing away from home. The Under hit in all five SDSU games on a neutral court during the regular season. Two teams holding opponents below 40% shooting for the year should lead to a “rock fight.” Take the Under |
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03-16-22 | 76ers v. Cavs UNDER 218 | Top | 118-114 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 11 m | Show |
Only one of Philadelphia’s last five games went Over the total and that was the 116-114 win against Orlando, which went to OT. Had it not been for overtime, it would have been five straight Unders coming into tonight’s tilt. After winning the first five games with James Harden in the lineup, the Sixers have lost two of the last three. That’s after falling 114-110 at home to Denver on Monday, a game where they had a 15-point lead after one quarter but could not hold. Speaking of holding, that is what Cleveland is desperately trying to do with the six seed in the Eastern Conference so they can avoid the play-in round. A 120-111 win over the Clippers Monday night definitely helped, but it took overtime. The Cavs are one of the better defensive teams in the league - especially at home where they are 16-4 in their last 20 games. At the Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse, they are giving up just 100.9 points per game. The Under is 22-9 here. I don’t see Evan Mobley matching the production from his last game, which was a career-best 30 points. As a team, Cleveland has not topped 106 in regulation in any of its last three games. Philadelphia has not topped 110 in regulation in four of its last five games. Take the Under. |
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03-16-22 | Bryant v. Wright State OVER 154.5 | Top | 82-93 | Win | 100 | 21 h 40 m | Show |
Neither of these two 16-seeds in the First Four are very good defensively. In fact, in terms of points allowed per possession, they are two of the three worst in the tournament. Throw in the fact that one of them (Bryant) plays at the seventh fastest tempo in the country and you’ve got the recipe for an Over. Wright State has three players averaging at least 14.3 points per game - Holden, Basile and Calvin. As a team, the Raiders put up 75.5 points per game. Six of their last eight games have gone Over, including both wins in the Horizon League Tournament. Bryant has the nation’s top scorer, Peter Kiss, who averages 25.1 points per game. As a team, the Bulldogs put up 77.9. They’ve won 16 of 17 overall and are a hot team. The problem for Bryant is that when they leave home, they give up an average of 79.2 points. They allowed 111 at Houston! In the eight games where they were a ‘dog, the Bulldogs allowed 81.3 points per game. Seven of the last eight games where Wright State was up against a team that came in averaging at least 77 points, the game went Over. Batten down the hatches for a high-scoring game Wednesday. |
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03-15-22 | Red Wings v. Oilers OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
Neither of these two teams are particularly solid on defense, but the Red Wings have been futile, allowing goals in bunches, at a rate of 5 goals per game in their last 5 matchups. They have lost 5 straight and are a very poor road team. Their away losses have consistently been by more than 2 goals. While the Oilers' offense has been relatively quiet by their standards, they did pot 4 against both Tampa Bay and the Capitals in their last 2 games. Two wins against tough teams may kickstart their offense and there is no better place to break out than against the Red Wings on the road. Defense and goaltending have been issues for the Oilers, and the Red Wings are not without some of their own muscle on offense. While the Oilers should be good for a win here, my best bet is on the total. Shop around on this one , and take the total to go over. |
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03-15-22 | Coyotes v. Canadiens OVER 6 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
Odd that two of the season's worst teams are 2 of the NHL's hottest teams in their last 10 games. Even more odd is the new-found offense both teams have discovered; the Canadiens are averaging 4 goals a game, and the Coyotes nearly 5 in their respective last five games. The Coyotes are playing on back to back games, and offense aside, these are still 2 of the NHL's worst defenses. A close and high score wouldn't surprise me, and the total is a fairly average 6. Take these new offensive powerhouses to go over today. |
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03-15-22 | Texas A&M Corpus Christi v. Texas Southern UNDER 136.5 | Top | 67-76 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 36 m | Show |
So our first 16 vs 16 seed in the “First Four” pits Texas Southern, tournament champions from the SWAC, against Texas A&M-CC, tournament champions of the Southland. I expect this to be a pretty low-scoring game. Start with the neutral court setting. Texas A&M-CC played eight such games during the regular season and those averaged 138 total PPG, well below what the Islanders averaged home or away. All three Southland Tourney games stayed Under. Texas Southern played just three neutral court games this season, all in the SWAC Tourney, and two of those stayed Under. The one that didn’t was the Final, an 87-62 win over Alcorn State where the Tigers shot 55.7%. They won’t shoot that well on Tuesday. Count on the Tigers playing sound defense. For the year, they are allowing a FG% of only 39.6. That’s top 22 in the country. They need to play that kind of defense because no one on the team averaged double figures in scoring during the regular season. This is just the second all-time NCAA Tourney appearance for Texas A&M-CC and first since 2006-07. I expect them to struggle to make shots. Texas Southern has been in the “First Four” two times previously with those games averaging just 111 PPG. Go with the Under in this one. |
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03-14-22 | Coyotes v. Senators OVER 6 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
Considering the Coyotes have the league’s 3rd worst offense, they have put up some startling goals-for totals lately, with 25 counted in just 4 games. This includes a massive home win against Monday’s opponent, the Senators. The Coyotes are on a tear, winning 4 of 5 and 7 of 10. The Senators did win 2 in a row, but have struggled in a big way in their last 10 games. Forsberg, expected in net for the Senators, can be sharp in mostly losing causes, but gets little support. Today’s other netminder, Wedgewood, has struggled lately. These two teams’ last meeting ended on 13 goals. Looking at the Coyote’s stretch of offense, and past totals when the Senators face other bottom dwellers, today’s total of six sounds like a safe bet. Take the Over in this match-up. |
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03-13-22 | Mavs v. Celtics OVER 216.5 | Top | 95-92 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
Two of the hotter teams in the NBA meet Sunday in Beantown as the Celtics entertain the Mavs. The home side has won five in a row and lost just twice since late January. There is a case to be made that Boston is the BEST team in the Eastern Conference right now. No one will tell you Dallas is the best in the West, but the Mavs have won six of seven to remain a solid fifth in that conference. The one loss in the last seven games was a curious one as they fell by 30 to the Knicks. I envision this to be a pretty high-scoring game. Dallas has been the top Under team in the NBA, but it’s a big difference at home (24-10-1) vs. on the road (17-14-1). Also, all but one of six Mavs’ games this month have seen at least 213 total points scored. Boston’s last four games have all seen 217 or more total points scored. They shot very poorly from three in their last game and still scored 114. The three-point shooting will improve here. The Over is 4-0 the previous four times Dallas has been off a straight-up win by more than 10 points. On Friday, they defeated the Rockets 113-100. |
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03-13-22 | Hurricanes v. Penguins UNDER 6 | Top | 2-4 | Push | 0 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
Carolina will play its third game in 4 days and its second in 2. They played the Penguins in a back to back situation last time and still came out ahead. Back up goalie Raanta will be in net. He has been terrific in his last two starts, helped out by NHL's best defense. The Penguins are favored, and would like to show better against the Canes, but the Hurricanes have had their number lately, beating them twice in the last month, and seem to be more or less impervious to fatigue. Home ice is no particular advantage to the Penguins; they've won more often on the road. The Hurricanes have been particularly tough to score against lately. They shut out the Avs, and have had their last 5 games go under. This game features 2 excellent defenses and a pair of very strong goal-tenders. I prefer the total in this match-up, and I am wagering on the game to stay under the total. |
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03-11-22 | Wild v. Blue Jackets OVER 6 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
The Blue Jackets were smoked by the Islanders yesterday, and are right back into it vs the Wild on Friday. The Wild will also be in a back to back situation. The Blue Jackets gave up 6 and the Wild 5 goals against. These two teams are top 10 offensively, but both would have be considered defensively challenged. The Wild have won a pair after a prolonged dark stretch, and are normally a very good home team. They now have challengers for a playoff spot, so motivation should favor them. They will play their back up goalie tomorrow. The Jackets will star Merzlikins, who has had very little support this season. This is a perfect opportunity for the Wild to get that offense rolling. I don’t see Columbus being shut out twice in a row. Both teams have given up, on average, better than 4 goals against lately. Here is another match-up destined for the over. |
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03-11-22 | LSU v. Arkansas OVER 138.5 | Top | 67-79 | Win | 100 | 17 h 44 m | Show |
The second SEC quarterfinal pits LSU (the 5-seed) against #16 Arkansas (the 4-seed). LSU won yesterday, 76-68 as an 11-point favorite over Missouri. Arkansas had a bye. The Razorbacks won’t be too upset to see the Tigers in this quarterfinal matchup. They swept the season series, winning 65-58 at Baton Rouge in January and then 77-76 in Fayetteville last week. In terms of the number of points scored, I look for this “rubber match” to be more in line with that more recent meeting. LSU has scored 75 or more points in six of their last seven games. Arkansas has scored 74 or more in five of its last six. The thing about that last meeting ending up so high scoring is that neither team shot well from three. They combined to miss 38 of 49 attempts from behind the arc. Expect a lot better long-distance shooting on Thursday afternoon. LSU didn’t cover yesterday. They are 7-1 Over off an ATS loss. |
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03-10-22 | Blue Jackets v. Islanders OVER 5.5 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
Columbus doesn't really "do" unders. The Blue Jackets haven't won very often recently, but they sure can put the puck in the net. They unfortunately can't keep it out with any frequency either. Their last 4 games have all ended over 6.5, and all have been close, with overtime figuring prominently. With a 9th rated defense and a 27th rated defense, the Islanders are rightly known as a "defense first" team, but that hasn't been the case lately, with just 2 of 8 going under the total. They also have a poor track record in their last 10, and are not a strong home team. They have flashed a bit of offense lately, and a game against Columbus offers a fine opportunity for some more. I am more than a little surprised at the odds for Thursday's match-up. Any time there is a 5.5 total involving Columbus, I am on the over, and you should be too. |
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03-10-22 | Nets v. 76ers OVER 230.5 | Top | 129-100 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
Think there might be some bad blood here? For the first time since being traded to Philadelphia, James Harden faces his former Brooklyn teammates. Both Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving will be on the floor for the Nets. The 76ers are 5-0 in games where Harden has played. They have scored at least 121 in every one of those five victories. In addition to Harden, you’ve got Joel Embiid, who went for 43 points and 14 rebounds in Monday night’s 121-106 win over the Bulls. The Nets got 50 from Irving on Tuesday as they snapped a four-game losing streak with a 132-121 win over Charlotte. Durant had just 14 points in that game. I expect a lot more from him tonight. This total is on the move and it’s easy to understand why. Not only have the Sixers averaged 125.4 points with Harden in the lineup, but the Nets have scored 120 and 132 in their last two games while shooting 53% from the field. Brooklyn is 2-0 Over this season following a game where they scored 130 or more points. |
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03-10-22 | TCU v. Texas OVER 125.5 | Top | 65-60 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 43 m | Show |
Texas has one of the top scoring defenses in the entire country (just 59.6 PPG allowed), but I expect this game with TCU to be higher scoring than expected. The Longhorns give up a lot more points when they’re outside of Austin. For the record, the Big 12 Tournament takes place in Kansas City. Just to illustrate, when they’re at home, Texas gives up only 52.8 points per game. When they are outside of Austin, they give up 69.9 PPG. That is a big difference! Both times Texas and TCU played in the regular season, the game went Over the total. The second time, there were 141 total points scored. TCU shot abnormally well in that one, but Texas also missed 13 of 14 three-pointers. Whatever shot regression we see here from the Horned Frogs will be made up by the Longhorns being better from behind the arc. Seven of Texas’ last eight games would have gone Over today’s total. The last five have averaged 136.4 PPG. TCU is 3-0 Over in neutral court games this season. They are also 8-2 to the Over when the total is 120 to 129.5. |
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03-09-22 | Binghamton v. Vermont UNDER 136 | Top | 42-74 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
Vermont is the clear class of the America East. That’s why they are 20+ point favorites in the semifinals of the tournament. While I expect the Catamounts to win here, that price is too high. Expect it to be a low-scoring game against Binghamton Wednesday night. The ol’ Binghamton Bearcats were not even expected to get this far, but they upset the 3-seed, New Hampshire, in the first round of the tourney. They were 7.5-point underdogs and won 72-69. But it has been a LONG time since Binghamton beat Vermont. The most points they’ve scored in any of the L10 meetings is 63. In two losses to Vermont this year, Binghamton averaged just 50 points. Both games stayed Under. Binghamton shot around 35% overall in the two games and was a combined 9 of 45 from three. Though Vermont put up 98 in its first round win over NJIT, that’s not a number you should expect here. In six of the previous seven games, the Catamounts did not top 76. They are averaging 74.7 PPG this year. But the key for Vermont is that they’ve held the last six opponents all to 61 points or less. I already talked about what they did to Binghamton in the two regular season meetings. The underdog just isn’t going to score many points here, so the favorite won’t have to go all out offensively either. Take the Under |
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03-07-22 | Maple Leafs v. Blue Jackets OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
The Toronto Maple Leafs, once a shoe-in for the playoffs, are in big trouble defensively, Their goals-against have soared from a 2.9 seasonal average to over 5 per game in their last 4 games. Both goalies are struggling in net and they are missing a pair of defensemen. The Blue Jackets are in much the same boat with injuries, and also have the league’s 31st ranked defense. Both these teams can put the puck in the net with regularity. Their last meeting ended at 7 goals, and the total has figured prominently for both teams recently. Look for a free-wheeling game with plenty of offense, and not much in the way of puck-stopping. Take the total in this one to go over. |
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03-06-22 | College of Charleston v. Hofstra OVER 159 | Top | 92-76 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
Five straight Charleston games have gone Over the total. The last one was against Hofstra, who they’ll face again here in the quarterfinals of the CAA Tournament. I expect the Over trend to continue. Last Monday it was an 89-84 Hofstra win. The teams entered that game knowing they would be facing each other again in the Tournament, The key for Hofstra is always forcing turnovers. They forced 28 on Monday, a season-high. While they may not force that many again today, Charleston does tend to be rather careless with the basketball on a regular basis, ranking 295th in turnover rate. Charleston also plays at the fastest tempo in the country, so this game will have plenty of possessions. Over their previous five games, Charleston is averaging 84.4 points on 54.1% shooting. Save for a head-scratcher against Elon, Hofstra has been scoring plenty themselves. They’ve topped 75 in six of their last seven games. This should be a really high scoring game. The Over is 17-4 in Charleston’s last 21 games as an underdog. Take the OVER |
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03-06-22 | Kings v. Sabres OVER 6 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -113 | 5 h 21 m | Show |
The Kings, on track for a play-off berth, are a very good road team and a strong favorite in this match-up in spite of an abysmal historical record against the Sabres in Buffalo. Quick will likely start but hasn’t performed to his long-time standard lately. Another elder statesman is in net for the Sabres. Anderson, at 40, may have seen better days as well. He will face a lot of shots vs the Kings’ sharpshooters, and with the 26th rated defense in front of him, won’t get much support. The Sabres’ offense has been showing a little better lately, and the Kings have not been stingy, giving up 11 goals in a pair of losses, and 3 in a win against Columbus on Friday. The total has been 6 goals or more in each team’s last 4 games. I am betting on the over to continue on Sunday, but do shop around... |
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03-05-22 | Blackhawks v. Flyers OVER 6 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 18 m | Show |
"Can't score,can't defend" sums up both the Blackhawks and the Flyers these days. Neither team impresses home or away, and both are playing back up goalies. Chicago has won two of three, and has good news on the injury front, with three players returning including the capitan Toews. Looking at other matches against poor defensive teams, the total has been over more than not. Look for more scoring than usual and take the over. |
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03-05-22 | Alabama v. LSU OVER 152 | Top | 77-80 | Win | 100 | 4 h 55 m | Show |
These are two teams desperate for a win. Alabama is only 3-13 ATS in SEC play and just lost outright, by 16, as a 10-point home favorite to Texas A&M. That same night, LSU came up a point short against Arkansas. They at least covered, which was their third straight win at the pay window. Both teams are considered safe for the NCAA Tournament. Neither can earn a top four spot in the SEC Tournament, but today’s result will affect seeding. Expect a high-scoring game with Alabama involved. Despite shooting only 31.3% from three, the Crimson Tide is averaging 80.2 points/game this year. The problem is - when they get out on the road - they give up 80.5 points per game. LSU has scored 75 or more in four of its last five contests. The Tigers lost the first meeting with Alabama, 70-67 in Tuscaloosa, but attempted only 15 free throws and made just nine. At home, they’ll get more chances from the charity stripe here. Alabama is a perfect 6-0 Over as an underdog this season. |
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03-04-22 | Red Wings v. Lightning OVER 6.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
The Lightning were embarrassed by the Penguins and will be out for blood against Detroit on Friday. Tampa Bay is a very good home team, and will seriously test the Red Wings' 30th rated defense. Tampa seems impervious to a drop-off in back-to-back situations, although with Elliot in net, they will likely give up a litttle extra on goals against. The over has figured prominently for both teams, but especially Detroit. It is hard to forget that NFL-worthy score against the Leafs. Detroit's offense is certainly better than their defense, averaging 4 goals-for per game over their last 7, win or lose. Friday's likely starter Nedeljovic has had some very poor outings, but he doesn't get much support. Detroit may be better rested, but i am looking for a rebound from the Lightning. By all rights, this game should go over.. |
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03-04-22 | Bradley v. Loyola-Chicago OVER 130.5 | Top | 50-66 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
Incredibly, Loyola Chicago slipped to the 4-seed for the Missouri Valley Tournament. The Ramblers had a chance to win the conference outright, but lost on the final day of the regular season, 102-96 to Northern Iowa in overtime, then fell victim to tiebreakers. I think they should still be considered the favorite to win this particular tourney. In the quarterfinals, they’ll face Bradley, who is the 5-seed. Neither team had to win to get here. Bradley finished the regular season at 17-13 SU overall, 11-7 in conference play. Loyola was 22-7 SU overall, 13-5 in conference play. The two regular season meetings were both won by the home team. Loyola won 78-71 in its gym, only for Bradley to return the favor in a much lower-scoring game, 68-61. It will be interesting to see how things play out here in St. Louis. This seems like a low total. Not saying that just because of how high-scoring Loyola’s last game was (and it was 85-85 at the end of regulation). But both of these squads’ games have averaged just over 136 points over the course of the whole season. Loyola shoots nearly 39% from three and is 13-4 Over this year when the total falls between 130 and 139.5. They have topped 80 in regulation each of the last two games. Bradley should score enough here as well; they’ve gone Over six of the last seven times they’ve been an underdog. |
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03-03-22 | California v. Arizona State UNDER 126 | Top | 44-71 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
Two of the more downtrodden teams in the Pac 12 meet here with California and Arizona State both trying to create some momentum before the conference tournament. The Golden Bears enter off an ugly 53-39 win over Stanford, which improved their record to 12-17 overall and 5-13 in conference play. The Sun Devils have won two in a row, beating Colorado and Utah on the road. Going back a bit more, ASU has won five of its last six. They are now 12-16 overall, but 8-10 in Pac 12 play, so they are still in the mix for a decent seed. That’s unlike Cal, who will be a bottom three seed in the tournament. This promises to be a very low-scoring game. Just look at the score from Cal’s last game. They only allowed 39 points! Problem is, they’ve scored less than 60 themselves in back to back contests. Well, that’s not a problem when you’re taking the Under! Over it’s last six games, Arizona State has allowed an average of only 59.5 points per game. The Under is 6-0 when ASU is a favorite this year and 10-3 in all of their home games. |
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03-02-22 | Kings v. Stars OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
The Kings were dethroned by the Bruins in their last game, but won the previous 5 prior to laying that egg, averaging 4 + goals scored. LA is a very good road team, with solid defense, but their goal-tending has been sub-par lately. The Stars are very strong at home, and have produced offensively well above their average when in the confines of their home arena. They have a middle-brow offense but do have a distinct advantage on the power play, and the Kings are not the most disciplined of teams. The winner is a toss-up, but I like the total in this match-up. The Stars are prone to low totals except in a “home favorite” situation, and lately the Kings’ games have trended over. Wednesday’s number is low. Take the over. |
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03-02-22 | Pacers v. Magic OVER 232 | Top | 122-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
I had (and won with) Orlando when these teams met on Monday. It was the Magic’s second straight win. Both games they scored exactly 119 points. Indiana is just 4-13 over its last 17 games and has basically “disassembled” its roster. One thing they can do though is score. Prior to losing here on Monday, the Pacers had scored 112 or more in seven consecutive games. The problem is, the Pacers have also allowed at least 119 points in six of the last eight games. This is a pretty high total. But two trends to consider with Indiana. They are 22-8 Over the last 30 times the total has been 230 or higher. They are also 19-8 Over as a favorite this year. I like tonight’s game to be higher scoring than Monday’s. Somewhere along the lines of the first meeting when the Magic and Pacers combined for 237 points. Take the OVER |
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03-02-22 | North Carolina A&T v. Radford UNDER 131 | Top | 78-71 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 15 m | Show |
The first of four first round games in the Big South Tournament today pits North Carolina A&T against Radford. These teams are seeded 8th (Radford) and 9th (NC A&T). The winner will move on to face top seed Longwood in the quarterfinals on Friday. This entire tournament is played in Charlotte. There was no home court advantage when these teams met twice in the regular season as the road team won both games. NC A&T and Radford are no strangers to one another as they just played in the regular season finale on Saturday, with Radford winning 63-52. The teams combined to shoot 7 of 36 on three-pointers. They were 40 of 108 overall, which is very bad. It was a far cry from the first meeting when the teams combined to make 15 of 37 three-pointers and NC A&T shot 56% overall. It was an easy Under on Saturday as the total was roughly the same as it is here. Radford is 6-1 to the Under in its last seven games against sub-.500 teams. NC A&T is 4-0 Under this season following a game where they failed to score more than 60 points. The Highlanders are also 4-0 Under when on a losing streak of three or more games. They’ve lost four in a row and 9 of 11. Take the Under this morning. |
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03-01-22 | Arizona v. USC OVER 149 | Top | 91-71 | Win | 100 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
Arizona and USC are set to tangle here in a battle of Top 25 teams out of the Pac 12. Arizona stayed ranked #2 (in the country) despite losing Saturday. It was only their third loss of the season and most of the teams in the Top 10 also lost. USC is up to #16 after winning its last six games, the last three being decided by a total of just SIX points. You should expect this game to see a lot of scoring. Arizona plays at the sixth fastest tempo in the country and also averages 84.4 points per game, third most in the country. USC is averaging 76.6 points per game here at home. With Arizona having just scored only 63 points (on 39.2% shooting) in the loss to Colorado on Saturday, it’s quite reasonable to expect them to have a bounce back game at the offensive end. They are looking to clinch the Pac 12 regular season title. The 63 points in the last game represented their low benchmark for February. USC did not shoot well the first time they faced Arizona, making just 34.3% of their shots. They were really bad from three. But they’ll shoot better at home. They should also look to go inside as Arizona just gave up 54 points in the paint to Colorado. Like Arizona, USC is one of the taller teams in the country. Take the Over in this one. |
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03-01-22 | Hawks v. Celtics UNDER 225 | Top | 98-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
So the Celtics had been the hottest team in the NBA before losing 128-107 at Indiana, in the second half of a back to back on Sunday. They look to get “back on track” here when they host Atlanta. The Hawks have been playing better the last month or so, but are still only tied for 9th in the Eastern Conference. Twice in the last three games they’ve won by more than 20 points. Against Toronto on Saturday, the Hawks shot a blistering 57.8 percent from the field. Don’t look for them to shoot that well again here. Boston has been one of the league’s top defensive teams during their run. The Celtics now rank second for the year in defensive efficiency and fourth in points allowed. Yet the last five Celtics’ games have all gone Over the total, which seems odd. Indiana’s 52.2% shooting on Sunday represented the highest percentage by any Celtics’ opponent since early December. What I look for here is a relatively low-scoring affair between two teams looking to improve their respective positions in the standings. This game should have the “feel” of a playoff contest. The Under is 6-0 this season when Boston is at home and the total is 220 points or higher. |
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03-01-22 | Devils v. Blue Jackets OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
The Devils are off a big win but play in back to back games on the road on Tuesday. It will likely be Gillies in net, a step down from Dawes. The Devils have stepped it up in offense lately. They've scored 36 goals in 7 games, and are up against the 31st ranked defense in Columbus. The Blue Jackets are one of the few teams with a worse defense than the Devils this season. Columbus can also flash a little offense, especially against the weaker teams. They have had some surprising victories lately and are a very good home team. The Devils have been doormats on the road, and very poor when playing on the 2nd game in two days. Given the situation, I expect another high total with offense shared by both teams. Take the over. |
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02-28-22 | Canucks v. Devils OVER 6 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
The Canucks are off an inspiring victory against the Rangers, but play in a back-to-back situation without Demko in net. Halak will start, and he has not played much or well lately. The Canucks offense has finally started to come alive, and is on a roll, averaging well over 5 goals a game in their last 5 starts. There is just the barest chance that they will make the playoffs. The Devils are at home, have an extra couple of days rest, and have absolutely owned the Canucks, winning 11 straight. They too are scoring at a good clip, potting 30 goals in their last 6 games. The Devils’ goaltending situation is a mess, and they are well down the list in choices. The likely starter is Gillies, who has struggled badly lately, with a 29th rated defense for support. The total is surprisingly low for this situation. Jump on this one early! |
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02-26-22 | Nets v. Bucks OVER 234.5 | Top | 126-123 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
This game does not have the luster that was originally anticipated as the Nets are without Kevin Durant (injured) and James Harden (traded). Struggling to stay healthy, Brooklyn has dropped 13 of its last 15 games. They were 129-106 losers to Boston on Thursday and offered little resistance at the defensive end. This is Milwaukee’s first game since the All-Star Break. Their last seven games before the time off all went Over the total. That’s the way I expect this one to go. In five of those seven games, the Bucks scored 120 or more. We saw just how little defense the Nets play when they allowed the Celtics to shoot 54.1 percent overall and 40.5 percent on three point attempts. The Bucks will have no issue scoring tonight. But what about their defense? The Bucks are giving up an average of 122.2 points their last five games. That’s not good at all. Expect a ton of points in this game. Take the Over. |
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02-25-22 | Blue Jackets v. Hurricanes OVER 6.5 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
Blue Jackets/Hurricanes Friday’s match-up pits the NHL’s 2nd rated defense (‘Canes) against the 31st (Blue Jackets). Columbus’s goalie situation is such that 20 year old Jet Greaves, fresh from the AHL, will likely start in net. The Blue Jackets have won 7 of 8, scoring an average of 4.5 goals a game. They won convincingly on Thursday night against the Panthers, but are on a back to back on Friday. Columbus is under .500 on the road. The Hurricanes have won three straight, are dominant on home ice, healthy, and well rested. Defensively, they have given up a steady diet of 3 goals in 5 straight games. I like Carolina in this situation, but so do the odds-makers. Looking at the total, we have seen some remarkably high numbers in Blue Jackets games, finishing between 7 and 11 goals in their last five games. Losing D-man Werenski and playing a raw rookie in net won’t help. The Canes can put the puck in the net. This one could get wild. Take the Over.. |
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02-24-22 | Belmont v. Murray State OVER 144.5 | Top | 43-76 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
This sets up as the Game of the Year in the Ohio Valley Conference with #19 Murray State hosting its top challenger Belmont. The teams are separated by two games, meaning Belmont cannot win the OVC regular season title outright. Murray State is a perfect 16-0 in the league, South Dakota State and Gonzaga are the only other teams in the country that haven’t lost a single conference game. I look for the teams to get off to a fast start in this one. The first time they played, it was a 48-35 game at halftime and Murray State ended up winning 82-60. Belmont shot very poorly that day, connecting on only 40.7% of their shots and going 5 of 23 from three-point range. Expect the Bruins to shoot a lot better tonight. They have not lost since January 20th and come in averaging 79.1 points per game. They are shooting almost 50% overall for the season. Murray State averages 79.7 points per game this season and at home they are averaging almost 90 points per game! The Racers shoot 51.4% in home games where they have not lost in 2021-22. Murray State got off to a slow start in its last game (eventually beat UT Martin 62-60), which is why I’m anticipating a fast start here. Belmont only made 6 of 26 threes against SIU Edwardsville and left some points at the free throw line. Take the OVER. |
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02-23-22 | Bucknell v. Army OVER 145 | Top | 60-73 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
Bucknell and Army meet for the second time in 2022 and if the first meeting, or even more recent results (from both teams) are any indication, then this Patriot League matchup should be pretty high-scoring on Wednesday. The first time these teams played, Army won 96-89. Both sides shot the lights out. Army made 60 percent of its field goal attempts while Bucknell wasn’t too far behind at 55.7 percent (also made 45.8% from three). Since that first meeting, we’ve seen numerous high scoring games from each team. Bucknell is coming off a 92-89 win over Lafayette. That game did go to overtime, but the Bison have now shot better than 50 percent in three of their last four contests. The fact they also are giving up almost 80 points per game is another reason to like the Over here. Army has allowed a total of 183 points in its last two games with the opponents shooting 57 percent! What if I told you that Bucknell has the third worst defensive efficiency rating in the country? Or that the Over has hit in five of their last six games? I’m quite shocked that the total is not higher here than it was for the first matchup between the teams. |
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02-21-22 | Jets v. Flames OVER 6 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
The Jets are just .500 on the road, and have a significant injury list. This will be their 4th game in 5 nights, as they head to Calgary to face a sizzling Flames powerhouse. Calgary has now won 9 straight, averaging much less than 2 goals against per game and scoring better than 4. They are healthy, rested, and dominant at home. Wnnipeg has historically had their way with the Flames, but that success likely comes to an end on Monday. Goal tender Hellebuyck has not been as solid this year, and the Jets are just average on defense, and have been uneven in offensive production. An average total is available on Monday, mainly due to the Flames' ability to keep down the goals-against. Look for the Flames to take it to Winnipeg and the total to go over. |
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02-21-22 | Avalanche v. Bruins UNDER 6 | Top | 1-5 | Push | 0 | 2 h 0 m | Show |
The Bruins are 4-6, and all of their wins were against the NHL’s loss-leaders. Marchand is still out, and they are scoring at a very low average rate of 1.5 goals a game lately. This won’t get them far against the Avs. Colorado is 8-2, and are playing a much more balanced brand of hockey, holding opponents to under 2 goals a game, while outscoring them by 2 or more goals in 7 of 8 of their last eight wins. The Av's newly acquired disciplined approach has lead to a surprising number of lower scoring games. Swayman should be in the net today. He has been the better of the Bruins’ net-minders, and has been particularly sharp in his last three starts. Meanwhile Kuemper has been more than steady for the Avalanche, and has seen his Save % climb to .920. The Avalanche and the under have ruled the roost in recent matchups between these two teams. Given the situation today, I'll wager that today's total will go under as well. |
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02-20-22 | Wild v. Oilers OVER 6.5 | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
The Oilers are at home vs. the Wild tonight. They have won 5 straight under a new coach, and in their last three games at least, seem to have re-found their scoring touch. To the negative side, they are beaten up, and playing in a back to back. The jury is still out on tonight’s expected goalie, Mike Smith, after a very long absence. The Wild are 1-2 in their last three games, and have given up over 5 goals a game in that period. While Healthier and better-rested, they are missing a key defense-man, and tonight’s expected net-minder, Talbot, has struggled of late. Both these teams are offense-driven, with below average defenses. The Wild’s recent propensity to give up goals is concerning. With the Oilers playing last night, some fatigue may be a factor, and it usually shows first on defense. I expect these to teams to do what they do best, which is put the puck in the net. Take tonight’s match-up to go over. |
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02-20-22 | Michigan v. Wisconsin OVER 138.5 | Top | 63-77 | Win | 100 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
Michigan and Wisconsin are both looking to follow up impressive wins on the road. The Wolverines, who are 14-10, need this game more as Wisconsin is 20-5 and well positioned to get a high seed in the NCAA Tournament. Michigan scored 84 points Thursday at Iowa on 50% shooting. They won’t need nearly that many to win Sunday, though it should be pointed out that the Wolverines have topped 80 in three of their last six games. The Over is 6-3 in Michigan’s last nine games and two of the games that stayed Under had higher totals than what we’ve got for today’s matchup. Wisconsin scored 74 points in its win over Indiana on Tuesday. They rallied in the second half for the victory. The Over is 6-0 the last six times the Badgers have been off an ATS win. The Over is also 4-0 the previous four times Michigan has been a road underdog. Looking at what both teams are averaging this season and the total for this game, I think it’s very reasonable to expect an Over. |
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02-19-22 | Avalanche v. Sabres UNDER 6 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 20 m | Show |
The Avs area known offensive force in the NHL, but seem to have tightened up their defense at this point in the season. Kuemper has been very strong in net recently, and the Avs have allowed just 5 goals in his last 5 starts, including two shutouts. The Sabres are 25th in offense, and have trouble scoring vs good teams. They managed just one goal against Colorado in their last meeting, and just a single vs the Senators in their last game.. Colorado is a huge favorite, even on the puck line, but has been so good on defense that the under has played 6 games in a row. The Avalanche have dominated the Sabres in Buffalo, and likely will tonight . Look for the Avs to win and with little output from the Sabres, the under to play again. |
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02-17-22 | CS Bakersfield v. Cal-Riverside OVER 124 | Top | 69-79 | Win | 100 | 15 h 51 m | Show |
This is a pretty low total, surprising because the last five Cal State Bakersfield games have all gone Over. There’s been a remarkable consistency with the last three, which have all seen exactly 136 total points scored. Now, the low total probably has something to do with UC Riverside, who has seen the Under hit in five of its last six games. But the one Over did come in their last game, last Saturday, as the Highlanders gave up 85 points in a loss to UC San Diego. The first time these Big West rivals met, the game went Over. The final score was 65-64, in favor of Riverside. Neither team even shot all that well in the first meeting. UC Riverside made only 6 of its 27 three-point tries. CS Bakersfield was just 40.4% overall from the field. I expect better all-around shooting tonight. Yes, I know the Under is a perfect 8-0 in Riverside home games this season. It’s time for one to go the other way. Take the OVER |
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02-16-22 | Ducks v. Flames OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
A very hot Flames team is now 9-1 but play in a back to back situation tonight. Calgary has scored 5+ goals in their last 4 games, and have added another goal- scorer to their line-up. The Ducks are pretty average on the road, but lost to the Kraken in their first game back from the break. Look for a little extra motivation from them tonight, as they are still in the run for a play-off position in the Pacific division and the Flames are a rival. Their offense is just middle of the pack, but they are still capable of just under three goals-for on average. The time is now for the Flames, as they push into first place in their division, and I don’t think the Ducks or the back to back situation will slow their offense down. The Total has been over 5 ½ in 9 of their last 10 games. While the Under has historically figured between these two teams, today’s total is too low in this situation. Take the Ducks/Flames game to go over tonight. |
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02-15-22 | Celtics v. 76ers UNDER 211 | Top | 135-87 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
Boston is 11-2-1 to the Under in its last 14 games. Since the beginning of the year (2022), they have the league’s best defensive efficiency rating. This has helped them to an eight-game win streak coming into tonight’s contest vs. Philadelphia. During the eight-game win streak, the Celtics have held six different opponents under 100 points. No team has scored more than 107 against them. Philadelphia is also strong defensively, posting a top 10 efficiency rating at that end of the floor this season. Their last two opponents were held to 87 and 93 points. The line has Boston slightly favored. The Celtics are 28-11 to the Under as chalk this season. The 76ers are 16-5 to the Under when they are the Underdog. Expect a low-scoring game tonight on TNT between two top defensive teams. |
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02-14-22 | Red Wings v. Wild OVER 6 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
The Wild have really taken it to the NHL's lesser lights recently, winning by lopsided margins. Detroit has won 4 of 6, and the over has figured prominently, both in goals scored in their wins and goals allowed in their losses. Minnesota ranks third in offense against a struggling 26th ranked Red Wings defense and has manhandled the Wings when playing in Minnesota. Detroit is an out and out poor road team this season, but has scored an average of 4+ goals in their last 5 games irregardless of the outcome. The Wild are a legitimate favorite here, but the odds are very high. I'm wagering on the over today. |
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02-13-22 | Rams v. Bengals UNDER 48.5 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 75 h 1 m | Show |
Looking at the Rams/Bengals matchup, with two top QBs and their wide variety of excellent receiving options, it is easy to imagine a high-scoring result. I am not seeing this result, and have held off to get the highest total available. I think this game is going under, and here is why. The Rams defense has been successful at limiting points (18 avg. L3), rushing yards, and has improved recently in yards allowed in the air. They have limited opposing pass offenses to a short pass game, and have limited pass TDs. They are 7th overall in sacks. Burrow has been largely immune to pass pressure, but he won’t be as free and easy to wander vs the Rams’ formidable pass rush. Will they shut Burrow down? Unlikely. Will they slow him down? Very likely. One need only look back to the Bengals/Titans game when the Titans scored only 19 points with Burrow sacked an astounding 9 times. The Bengals may also be forced into more of a run situation on Sunday, slowing the game down. They have a very viable option in Mixon, but the Rams defense has been outright stingy vs the run. Stafford may have his hands full as well. The Bengals defense is tough against the run, but has been doing the job against the pass as well. They had four sacks against Mahomes last week and adapted well in the second half to control him effectively. They’ve only given up an average of 19 points a game in their last three games. Their QB pressure stats, other than actual sacks, are actually better than the Rams’. The Rams have essentially abandoned the run lately, banking on Stafford, but a hurried Stafford is not without peril. Could we also see more of a running game from Akers and the Rams as well? That is my take on total. The over/under line has been pretty static, but hunt for the right number, and take this game to surprise a lot of people and go under. |
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02-13-22 | Hawks v. Celtics UNDER 220.5 | Top | 95-105 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
Before the Super Bowl kicks off, the Celtics look to continue their red hot run with a home game against the Hawks. Boston has won seven in a row. Over the last 10 games, they’ve held seven different opponents below 100 points. So this is a really high total for them (Boston, that is). The Under is 7-2 this season when the O/U is 220 or higher and the Celtics are involved. That includes 5-0 Under at home. When the Celtics are favored, the Under is 27-11 this season. Atlanta doesn’t play much defense, which is why the number is so high today. But, ironically, the Hawks are the last team to defeat the Celtics. They won 108-92 back on January 28th. The Under has cashed both times these teams have played this season. Back on November 17th, the Hawks won again, 110-99. Considering the Boston defense and how high the number is, we have no choice but to play the Under in this one. |
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02-12-22 | Knicks v. Blazers UNDER 218.5 | Top | 103-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
New York and Portland have more in common that you might think. Both teams are obviously having disappointing seasons. But two-point victories for each in their respective last games were quite welcome as they ended long losing streaks. The Knicks had lost four in a row before downing Golden State 116-114 on Thursday. They are still 3-10 their last 13 games. That they pulled the upset over the Warriors, without RJ Barrett, was pretty impressive. But I don’t see the Knicks scoring that many points again here. They’re only averaging 104.7 per game for the year. Barrett is probably out again. The Blazers beat the Lakers 107-105 on Wednesday. They’d dropped six in a row before that. It’s now a vastly different look than we’re used to seeing in Portland. For the last couple years, this team was carried by its backcourt of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. Lillard is injured and McCollum was just traded. The most points scored by Portland in any of its last six games is 108. Four times they’ve been held below 100. The Knicks are pretty good defensively, keeping teams to 106.0 per game. The Blazers aren’t very good defensively, but they shouldn’t feel threatened by the Knicks, who won’t get to the free throw line here as much as they did against Golden State. Take the Under |
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02-12-22 | Oklahoma v. Kansas OVER 141.5 | Top | 69-71 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
Last Saturday, I went with the Under when Kansas hosted Baylor. The Jayhawks ended up allowing just 59 points in a statement win in Lawrence. Unfortunately, that “statement” was then followed by a 79-76 loss at Texas on Monday. It’s back inside Allen Fieldhouse for the Jayhawks here. They welcome in Oklahoma, who figures to score more here than Baylor did last week. The Sooners are coming off a big win, beating Texas Tech 70-55 on Wednesday. OU has not won in this building since 1983, which is pretty incredible. The fact Kansas is averaging 82.2 points per game at home this season will make it difficult to end the long losing streak. Both teams had success defending the three-point line in their last games. Even though they lost, Kansas kept Texas to 3 of 20 from behind the line. Oklahoma held Texas Tech to 2 of 17. I don’t think either side will be that good, or lucky, here today. So while I went Under last week, this time it’s an Over play on Kansas. You can look for more threes to fall and more free throws to be attempted than the last time these teams met. The Jayhawks attempted just six FTs in the 67-64 victory. |
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02-10-22 | Lightning v. Avalanche OVER 6 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
The Avs host the Lightning minus MacKinnon, who was a big part of a Colorado win the last time these two powerhouses met. Colorado has been dominant at home, but they face a very fine road team in Tampa Bay. The Avs have the firepower, even without MacKinnon, but their defense can be suspect. The Lightning have much better balance and superior goaltending. Neither team has played in over a week, a long enough break to favor the offense. These two teams have a history of high-scoring games when they meet. The Under figured prominently for both teams just before the break, but look for the “A” game from both teams tonight and that means offense. This is the lowest total we have seen in ages for the Avs. Take this game to go over. |
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02-09-22 | Raptors v. Thunder OVER 208.5 | Top | 117-98 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
Toronto has been red hot, winning six in a row to move into the top six out East. They’ve also covered the spread in all six wins! Tonight, the Raptors find themselves in Oklahoma City, playing a Thunder team that is second to last in the Western Conference and one of the few teams in this league with no shot at making the playoffs. The Thunder have dropped two straight, 14 of their last 18 and will be playing without their leading scorer. However, I still expect this game will go Over the total, mostly thanks to Toronto. The Raptors have scored at least 110 points in five of their six straight victories. Meanwhile, the Thunder have allowed 111 or more in five of the last seven games as well as 7 of the last 10. Figuring Toronto will score at least 110 tonight, all we then need from OKC is to hit the century mark. That seems doable considering the last time these teams met, back in December, the Thunder scored 110 in an upset win. Take the OVER |
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02-08-22 | Pacers v. Hawks UNDER 227 | Top | 112-133 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
Both teams faded late on Sunday. Indiana was up 20 on Cleveland, but lost 98-85. Atlanta fell 103-94 in Dallas, largely due to its inability to make shots. The Hawks were 5 of 25 from three point range with Trae Young going 0 for 6. The Hawks are just 14 of 54 on three point attempts in their last two games. But they’re more likely than Indiana to bounce back here. The Pacers just dealt Caris LeVert to Cleveland and with so many players injured, that trade looked like them “waving the white flag” on the 2021-22 season. Having lost three in a row, the Pacers are now 17 games below .500. LeVert was one of six players averaging double figures for the team. He’s now gone. Two of the other top five scorers are injured. Atlanta is a solid 8-3 SU in its last 11 games, which has moved them into playoff position. But the recent three-point shooting is cause for concern. This is a pretty high total for a game between two teams that both failed to crack 100 points on Sunday. Take the Under |
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02-06-22 | Pelicans v. Rockets UNDER 230.5 | Top | 120-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
The Rockets’ last five games have seen a lot of scoring, most of it due to them giving up an average of 123.2 points. It’s been quite the opposite for the Pelicans recently; their last five games have averaged just 207.6 total points. I think this total is too high and will play accordingly. Houston gave up 131 points to San Antonio on Friday. As someone who bet on the Spurs, I liked that. Rockets’ fans certainly didn’t; it was the second time in the last five games they allowed San Antonio to go over 130. The Rockets allowed the Spurs to shoot 57.3% on Friday. That probably will not happen here against the Pelicans. There is a chance this will end up being the highest total for any Pelicans’ game so far this season. That’s certainly notable. This is a team that’s giving up an average of only 101.5 points in its last four games. The last four head to head meetings have all gone Over. But those were all with totals of 225.0 or lower. The only previous meeting of 2021-22 was a 118-108 final (that Houston won), which would NOT have gone Over tonight’s total. Houston will figure it out defensively here, at least enough to keep New Orleans around its season average of 105.5 points per game. Meanwhile, I don’t expect the Rockets to score a ton either. Take the Under. |
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02-05-22 | Thunder v. Kings UNDER 216.5 | Top | 103-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
Oklahoma City has won three in a row! That they’ve done so without their leading scorer (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) makes the wins streak even more surprising. Another win tonight would match a season-high four straight wins by the Thunder. The previous four-game run took place back in November and included a 105-103 win against Sacramento, who they’ll face Saturday night. It’s been the defense that’s guided OKC to this latest win streak. They beat Portland twice, holding them to 81 and 93 points. In between was a 120-114 over Dallas. But that was an overtime game, tied 103-103 at the end of 48 minutes. The Thunder are still last in the league in points per game (101.0). Sacramento has also been playing without its top scorer, De’Aaron Fox, recently. Fox could return tonight, but I wouldn’t expect him to be all that productive after missing the past seven games. Nor are the Kings very likely to shoot as well as they did (52.4%) in Thursday’s loss to Golden State. The Under is 12-7 when this team is coming off a loss by 10 or more points. Take the UNDER |
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02-05-22 | Baylor v. Kansas UNDER 145 | Top | 59-83 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
Top 10 teams meet for the first time in 2022. Kansas gets to host first, looking to add to its six-game win streak in conference play. However, Baylor is the higher ranked team coming into Saturday. The defending National Champs, despite three losses in the last seven games, are #8 in the country. (They opened the season 15-0). Kansas is #10. Both squads lost to SEC teams last Saturday, Baylor at Alabama and Kansas at home to Kentucky. They each bounced back with a conference win earlier in the week. Baylor came from behind to beat West Virginia by four. A day later, Kansas went to Iowa State and won by nine. This looks like a pretty even matchup. Baylor desperately needs to shore up its defense, which has let the last two opponents to shoot 59% and 54% from the floor. I think they will, plus Kansas probably won’t shoot 56% as it did vs. Iowa State. Even with that hot shooting, the Jayhawks managed only 70 points vs. Iowa State. That was after being held to 62 by Kentucky. The number just seems too high. Bet the under. |
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02-04-22 | 76ers v. Mavs UNDER 212.5 | Top | 98-107 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
These teams are in pretty similar spots. Philadelphia, third in the East with a 31-20 record, is a little better off right now. But Dallas, fifth in the West with a 29-23 record, has the home court edge for tonight. The Mavs can’t be too happy about the fact they’ve lost two in a row and that those losses were to the Magic and Thunder. Something else I quickly noticed is how their games have been higher scoring of late. The last five, all of which have gone Over, averaged 231.0 points. That’s up, by a lot, from 209.9 for the year. So my instinct tells me that Dallas is probably due to have a lower-scoring game. Enter the Sixers, who typically do a terrific job defensively. They allow just 105.5 points per game. Only once in the last seven games has Philly given up more than 109. The Under is 18-7 in all Dallas’ home games. Philadelphia is 15-5 Under when they are an underdog. The Mavericks allow the fifth-fewest number of points per possession in the league. Their last game, a 120-114 loss to OKC, went to overtime. It was tied at 103 at the end of regulation. Take the Under here. |
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02-01-22 | Pelicans v. Pistons OVER 214.5 | Top | 111-101 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
The Pelicans and Pistons’ combined record is 30-69 (straight up). But both have been playing (somewhat) better recently. Since a horrible 3-16 start to the year, the Pelicans have basically played .500 ball. The Pistons are 5-7 in their last 12 games, still not good, but a marked improvement from losing 30 of their first 37 games. So expect some points in this Tuesday night matchup. Now I know the Pelicans have lost four in a row and haven’t scored 100 in the last two. But expect better shooting here, especially if leading scorer Brandon Ingram returns. The Pelicans also have to start making some threes. In the last three games, they’ve gone 19 of 96 from long-range. That’s just 19.8 percent! Detroit is not known as an offensive force, but they just scored 115 in a win over Cleveland on Sunday. The past six games, a stretch where the team is 5-1 ATS, has shown sizable improvement at the offensive end. Neither team is all that good defensively. New Orleans just gave up 27 points in the final nine minutes in a loss to Cleveland last night. By the way, when playing with zero days rest, the Pelicans give up 113 points per game and have won just once. The Over is 16-6 the last 22 times Detroit has been favored. |
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02-01-22 | Panthers v. Rangers OVER 6.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 102 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
A very potent Panthers offense lit up the goal light 8 times last night and 22 times in their last 4 games. They are playing on back to back games, are not quite as dominant on the road, and will be without Bobrovsky in the net tonight. Meanwhile, the Rangers are just 3-3 in their last 6 games and even with Shesterkin in net are averaging over 3 goals a game against. It will be hard to slow the Panthers down, even on the road, and the Rangers are down a couple of starting D-men. Look for lots of offense from both sides. The total is very high, but a high score has been the norm when these two teams meet. Even with the total at 6.5 goals, I am still wagering on this gamel to go over. |
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01-31-22 | Raptors v. Hawks UNDER 219 | Top | 106-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
Both these teams are coming off wins as they jockey for playoff position. Atlanta has won seven in a row, its longest streak of the season and currently the longest active win streak in the Eastern Conference. They played yesterday, defeating the Lakers by a score of 129-121. Toronto was a 124-120 winner Saturday in Miami. That game went to triple overtime and everyone in the Raptors’ starting five played at least 53 minutes. I’m looking for this to be a much lower-scoring contest. Toronto & Miami were tied 100-100 at the end of regulation. The Hawks shot 58.3% yesterday, which is something I don’t see happening again. The Under is 8-2 when the Hawks face an Atlantic Division opponent. This includes a 108-92 win over Boston that took place on Friday. Before Sunday, each of the Hawks’ previous four games stayed Under. Going into 3 OT’s with Miami stopped the Raptors’ 6-0 Under run in road games. This team only shoots 43.8% from the field, for the season, and has topped 105 in regulation only two times since January 7th. Go with the Under in this one. |
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01-30-22 | 49ers v. Rams UNDER 46 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 29 h 8 m | Show |
The Rams face the 49ers for the third time this season, and many reputations rest on the outcome. The two defenses will have a huge impact on this game. Yes, Stafford is on a roll, but the 49ers are tough on quarterbacks, averaging 5 sacks a game in the last three games, are 6th in passing yards allowed this year, and hold opposing Qbs to a rating of 83 over the last three weeks. A rattled Stafford is not nearly the same quarterback. He is not immune to throwing the ball away. Should the Rams look to the running game, it doesn’t get any easier. The 49ers have only allowed 69 rush yards on average in their last three games. What can we expect from the 49ers’ offense on Sunday? Probably a concentrated effort to run the ball, slowing the game down, and keeping Stafford off the field. It worked for them in their last win against the Rams. Their Qb, Garappolo has not impressed lately, with a QB rating of only 79 in his last three games. The 49ers appear to have more faith in their running game. A note to bear in mind. Their double threat magician Deebo Samuel, terrific lately, may not be 100%. It would be a mistake to underestimate the Rams’ defense. They are strong against the run; fifth and improving in rush yards/game and rush yards/attempt. They are equally tough on Qbs, holding opposing Qbs to a rating of 71 over the last three games. The 49ers are a very good road team, and have dominated the Rams for some time. I am not confident in their ability to outscore the Rams, but I do think they will hold the final score down. I am wagering on the total to go under. |
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01-30-22 | Blazers v. Bulls OVER 229 | Top | 116-130 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
Over the last couple of weeks, Portland and Chicago have both undergone a reversal of fortunes. Portland got off to a bad start, but has won 7 of its last 11 games. This run now has them 10th in the Western Conference, which would be a play-in spot. Out in the East, Chicago had occupied the top spot for a bit. But now the Bulls are in second after dropping 7 of 10. I expect this Sunday matchup to be pretty high-scoring. The Bulls are having issues defensively. Friday was the third time this month that they surrendered more than 130 points. They let the Spurs shoot 52.6% and lost 131-122. On the bright side, the Bulls are still scoring. Three straight games with 111 or more points and they are top 11 in the league, scoring 110.6 points per game.. Now Portland also has issues defensively. They are bottom five in the league, giving up 112.3 points per game. Even with their recent resurgence, the problems at the defensive end have largely persisted. They gave up 132 points in a loss to Dallas earlier in the week. Four of the Blazers’ last five games have gone Over the total and this one should as well. This season, the Bulls are a perfect 7-0 to the Over, at home, when the total is 220 pts or higher. |
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01-30-22 | Bengals v. Chiefs OVER 54 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -112 | 78 h 46 m | Show |
Bengals vs Chiefs It is hard to see this as anything other than a shootout. Mahomes, Burrow and their various stellar targets appear to be at peak form. The Bills, who possess much better defense than the Bengals, could not control Mahomes and the Chiefs. The Bengals are 26th in pass yards against, and 8th but sinking badly in rushing yards allowed and sacks. It is hard to imagine them in any way controlling Mahomes and Co. The Bengals beat the Chiefs at their own game 4 weeks ago, and the number of points given up by KC to high-octane pass offenses this year is very high. Burrow takes a lickin’ and still keeps kickin’ every week and one of these days the Bengals lack of an O-line is going to bite them. It may not be this week as KC is only 29th in sacks. I’m looking forward to this game. Who knows, it may even surpass the Bills/Chiefs barn-burner last week. I do think the points will pile up in a big way. Take the over. |
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01-29-22 | Tennessee v. Texas OVER 126.5 | Top | 51-52 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
Tennessee and Texas, two ranked teams, do battle in Austin Saturday night as part of the Big 12 vs. SEC Challenge. This is Rick Barnes’ return to Austin, where he coached for 17 seasons. I anticipate this being a higher-scoring affair than expected. The Volunteers have won their last three games, but still in my mind is the memory of them giving up 107 points to Kentucky not that long ago. I suppose you could try and call that an aberration, but the fact is three of the last four times the Vols have gone on the road, they’ve allowed 70 or more points. They also just gave up 71 to Florida Wednesday night. Texas tends not to give up many points, but they also rarely face a team that is as good offensively as Tennessee is. Consider that, against Florida, the Vols put up 78 points and that was despite having a five minute stretch where they didn’t even attempt a single shot! The Longhorns were very dominant in their last game, rolling TCU in what was a 23-point win. I just think that both teams are capable of scoring 65 points tonight. That would mean the Over hits. |
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01-29-22 | Michigan v. Michigan State UNDER 139 | Top | 67-83 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 30 m | Show |
We’ve got Michigan State coming off a loss and Michigan needing this game pretty badly. The unranked Wolverines have put together a nice three-game win streak, but are still only 10-7 on the season. They need more wins to boost their NCAA Tournament resume. Winning at East Lansing would be a big help. But the Spartans just dropped a one-point decision at Illinois earlier in the week. It was low-scoring, 56-55, and that’s what I think this game will be as well. During the three-game win streak, Michigan has shot better than 57 percent from the floor. There’s simply no way that can continue. Not against a MSU team that is keeping its opponents below 40 percent shooting for the season. Visiting teams are hitting less than 30 percent from three at the Breslin Center. Of course, MSU shot very poorly in the Illinois game, making just 34.5 percent of its attempts. The Under has hit each of the previous four times Sparty has been a home favorite between 3.5 and 6 points. |
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01-28-22 | Bulls v. Spurs OVER 229 | Top | 122-131 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
Spurs’ home games tend to be rather high scoring, so I’ll bet this one to “go high.” An average of 226.5 total points per game is scored when they open the doors at the Alamo. While we need a few more than that tonight, I think we get it. Chicago is getting back to full strength and has scored 111 points in each of its last two contests. They are top ten in the league in scoring and had a very efficient night vs. Toronto on Wednesday. Both DeRozan and LaVine had 23 or more points. San Antonio is also top ten in scoring. They could only manage 110 points in their last game, which was the second night of a back to back against Memphis. But the game before that, against Houston, they finished with 134 points. Expect the Spurs to shoot better here than they did against the Grizzlies from long distance. Making only 24% of their attempts in the Memphis game was their worst effort on threes since November 18th. The Bulls also haven’t shot it that well from long range of late. But they are 37.7% for the season, so expect a turnaround from them as well. Take the Over. |
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01-27-22 | Lakers v. 76ers OVER 219 | Top | 87-105 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
The Lakers now have Anthony Davis back, so maybe they finally get going? With Davis logging 25 minutes in his first game in more than a month, the Lakers downed the Nets 106-96 back on Tuesday. LA had gone 7-10 in the 17 games that Davis missed. Problem is that tonight the Lakers still have to deal with Joel Embiid. Embiid has been a beast lately. Tuesday marked the sixth time this year that Embiid has gone for 40+ points and 10+ rebounds in a game. The 76ers won 117-107, beating the New Orleans Pelicans. I think that both the Lakers and Sixers are ready to put up some points Thursday night on TNT. Let’s not forget LeBron James, who has been scoring at will recently. He has 18 straight games with 26 or more points. He went for 33 in the win at Brooklyn. Three of the last four games, Philly has scored 115 or more points. They shouldn’t have too much trouble scoring on the Lakers, who are bottom five in scoring defense. The Over has hit in four of the Lakers' last five road games and seven of their last 10 overall. That’s how I see this one going. |
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01-25-22 | Clippers v. Wizards OVER 215.5 | Top | 116-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
Both of these teams could badly use a win. Washington is off what coach Wes Unseld Jr termed the team’s “worst loss of the season,” a 116-87 beatdown at the hands of the Celtics (I had Boston!) While the Wizards have lost three in a row and four of their last five, the Clippers have dropped four of their last six, including a 110-102 decision at New York on Sunday. Keep in mind that LA’s last win saw them rally from a 24-point deficit to beat Philadelphia by one on the road. If nothing else, Washington will shoot better in this game compared to Sunday when they made just 35.5 percent of their attempts from the floor. Three of their key scorers - Bradley Beal, Spencer Dinwiddie and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - combined to shoot 0 for 14 from three-point range. Giving up an average of 111.4 points over their last five games, the Wizards will HAVE to shoot better. The Over is 4-0 the last four times Washington has been favored, with all those games taking place at home. The Over has also hit 23 of the previous 32 meetings. So go with that here. |
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01-24-22 | Blues v. Flames OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
St Louis has been a sharp 7-2 in January, but Binnington has been in the net for both of losses. He seems to have lost his luster this year, and had not played regularly in January. In the Flames net, Markstrom has had his moments, but has been off more often than on lately. Wins have been rare for the Flames in January with both offense and defense struggling. Not so the Blues, but they are on the wrong side of a back to back. The total is average today, and doesn’t accurately reflect the performance of the net-minders at this moment. Expect some goal production from both teams and take the over. |
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01-24-22 | Knicks v. Cavs UNDER 204 | Top | 93-95 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
The Knicks are playing the second game of a back to back after defeating the Clippers 110-102 at home yesterday. That was a fairly “high scoring” result by their standard. Going back to Christmas, New York has held nine different opponents below 100 points. At the same time, there have been six occasions where they failed to crack the century mark themselves. Cleveland is coming off a really low scoring win. They defeated Oklahoma City 94-87 on Saturday, holding the Thunder’s starting frontcourt to 5 of 25 shooting. It was the sixth win the last seven games for the surprising Cavaliers. This promises to be a low-scoring affair as well. These are two of the top five scoring defenses in the NBA right now. The Cavs are allowing just 101.5 points/game at home. The Knicks are allowing just 103.3 points/game on the road. The Knicks typically don’t shoot the ball very well. Their FG% for the year is only 43.6 and they’ve been below that three of the previous four games, including yesterday. The Under is 14-7 in Cavs’ home games. In addition to possibly being without PG Rajon Rondo (questionable), who has missed the last six games, the team will definitely be without Lauri Markkanen as he sprained his ankle in Saturday’s win. Look for this game to stay UNDER. |
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01-23-22 | Rams v. Bucs OVER 47.5 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 32 h 5 m | Show |
The Rams face the Buccaneers for the second time this season, only this time it is for most the marbles. Not that it really matters at this point, but Tampa Bay has been lights out as a home team, and the Rams are a very good on the road this year. With Brady and Stafford at QB, both these teams are going to score points, and while the teams may run the ball, it will be to set up to two very good pass offenses. That said, the Bucs and Rams have good news on the rush offense side. RB Fournette will be healthy for the Bucs and the Rams have Akers back for only the 2nd time this season. Neither pass defense is in the top echelon, although the Rams did shut the Cardinals down effectively last weekend. Brady and Stafford will likely face more pressure than they are used to. The Rams in particular, have been tough on Qbs lately, and it is still not completely clear how injury will affect the Buc’s defensive line. Not to forget that these teams are 1st and 6th in protecting their passer. Stafford has had issues with interceptions, but didn’t throw the ball away at all last week. Brady rarely throws the ball away. I can see both offenses stepping it out this weekend. Weather conditions will be fine. Look for a ton of points scored. Take the Rams and Bucs to go over the total. |
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01-22-22 | 49ers v. Packers UNDER 47.5 | Top | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 59 h 56 m | Show |
The Packers are back from their bye week, rested and at home, but I wonder just how comfortable they are with this weekend’s match-up. The 49ers’ defense is tough and improving of late. In the last 3 weeks; 4+sacks a game, rush yards against average of 75, pass yards against 189, and an average quarterback rating of 78. You get my point. The last time the Packers played a solid defense was against the Browns, with a very close 22-20 win the result. Now throw in serious low temperatures, wind, and possible snow, all elements that would suggest more of a running game. The 49ers are 7th and climbing in rushing yards, with their Deebo/Mitchell combo. The Packers can also run, although not quite as effectively. They just can’t stop the run (31st in rush yards against). Worst case scenario for the Packers is the Giants coming in and running the ball all the cold day long. I am not saying we won’t see any magic from Rodgers, just less of it. If there weren’t injury issues with a couple of 49ers players, this would be a wager on San Francisco. All things considered, I like the total in this game. Take the 49ers and Packers to go under the total. |
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01-21-22 | Thunder v. Hornets OVER 221.5 | Top | 98-121 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
Oklahoma City is not strong offensively. They actually rank dead last in the NBA in points per game as well as three-point shooting, and have scored 97 points or less in six of their last 11 games. But I think they’ve got an opportunity to break out tonight against Charlotte, who allows the second most points per game in the league. The Hornets’ defense has been a bit more sound of late while winning six of their last seven games. Three of those games have seen them allow fewer than 100 points. Five times they’ve allowed no more than 106. But eventually they’re going to revert back to their “old ways” and tonight might just be that night. The Thunder are coming off three consecutive games where they shot below 44%. It’s tough to shoot any worse than they did Wednesday in San Antonio when they made only 38.8% of their field goal attempts. That included 25% from three. I predict OKC will in fact shoot better tonight, leading to more points scored. Charlotte is 11-4 Over this season when facing a team that has a losing record. That’s the way I’m going here. |
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