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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-24-21 | Liberty v. Syracuse OVER 53.5 | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 12 m | Show | |
Liberty @ Syracuse Liberty will look to keep the momentum rolling here after starting off 3-0 and coming off of a 45-17 victory over Old Dominion last weekend. Look for Malik Willis to have another big day, he was 21 of 28 for 242 yards and four touchdowns. Syracuse is 2-1 so far and it's off a 62-24 victory over Albany. RB Sean Tucker is the featured offensive player for the Orange, he already has 367 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns, while also adding seven catches for 148 yards and another receiving TD. These have been two decent defenses, but that's been mostly due to the level of competition. Look for this one to fly well over before the final whistle sounds. 10* Play Take OVER |
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09-24-21 | Cardinals v. Cubs OVER 9 | 8-5 | Win | 105 | 5 h 5 m | Show | |
Cardinals (Happ, 9-8, 6.02) vs Cubs (Steele, 3-3, 4.20) The Cards and Cubs meet up for a double header on Friday. Happ starts the first game for the Cardinals. It looked like Happ had re-found his form in August, finishing the month with a 2.22 ERA. September has been much crueler; he had an 8.22 Era in 4 games. He still delivers 5 innings a game. Justin Steele has been effective in September, allowing 9 runs over 14 innings. He averages 4 to 5 innings per start. The problem for Steele is that the Cubs’ bullpen has been very poor (6.61 Era in the last 7 games), and short starts won’t win many games in Chicago. The Cardinals are the hottest team in baseball and have been scoring a ton of runs. The Cubs have been pretty average in offense and are 2-8 in their last ten games. Basically going through the motions. The Cards are a very good road favorite, and a strong 22-13 vs left-handers. I like the Cards’ chances here but Happ can give up a lot of runs in a hurry. The total is average for 7 innings. Take the total to go over. |
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09-23-21 | Cardinals v. Brewers UNDER 8 | 8-5 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 44 m | Show | |
Cardinals (Wainwright, 16-7, 2.89) vs Brewers (Houser, 9-6, 3.43) The Cards are the hottest team in baseball, whipped the Brewers on Wednesday, and are 10-0 in their last ten games. And they have their ace Adam Wainwright, the ageless one, on the mound. The only thing that stands in the way of a 4 game sweep of the Brewers is Adrian Houser. His last start was his worst in some time (4 ER over 4 innings), but his two previous were shut-outs of 6 and 9 inning duration. This has the makings of a real pitcher’s duel and, a rarity this late in the season, both teams have very sharp bullpens. The Cards, modest hitting usually, are punching well above their weight, while Milwaukee is in the doldrums. Their collective batting avg. is below .200 of late, and they have won only 2 of their last 6 games. The Cards are a very good road team, and are on a terrific roll at the moment. They have won their way into wild-card potential. I like the Cards here, but I like the Total more. Take the total to go under. |
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09-20-21 | Lions v. Packers OVER 48.5 | Top | 17-35 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
Detroit @ GB. Two divisional opponents off Week 1 losses collide in Week 2. Detroit's offense actually looked quite good in last weeks' 41-33 loss to the 49ers (especially considering the way the 49ers' held the high-flying Eagles to just 11 points on their own field on Sunday after they scored 32 in their Week 1 win at Atlanta.) Jared Goff was 38 of 57 for 338 yards. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers uncharacteristically struggled in their 38-3 season-opening loss at New Orleans (interesting though, that game was played at Jacksonville instead of New Orleans because of Hurricane Ida. Traveling to Jacksonville is tough, but especially on short notice. That was a game that completely favored the Saints. New Orleans looked poor in its loss at Carolina on Sunday.) Rodgers though is going to benefit greatly from being in friendly confines and facing a poor Lions' defense which just conceded 41 points to San Francisco (which could only muster 19 in yesterday's win at Philadelphia.) Look for these experienced "gun-slingers" to garner most of the headlines in tomorrow's summaries of this contest. The play is the over. |
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09-20-21 | Orioles v. Phillies UNDER 8 | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
Orioles (Means: 5-7, 3.41) vs Phillies (R.Suarez 6-4, 1.50) The Orioles have a lamentable record and you don’t need to look further than their pitching for the reason. John Means has been as close as you can find to a starter with acceptable stats, but with a bullpen that struggles to the tune of 8.63/ L7, a winning record is unlikely. Note that Means’ WHIP is a solid 1.00 for the season. Ranger Suarez is as good as anyone since converting to “starter-dom” and has stretched out to 6 innings per outing. He is a sparkling 5-0 with an ERA of 1.60 at home this season. Let’s bypass the bullpens and look at the first half today. Neither team has a successful record vs. lefties and both pitchers tend to be strong early. Neither team has experience vs. the opposing pitcher. While the total is low for the first half, I think it is a safe bet today. Take the under in the first 5 innings. |
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09-19-21 | Patriots v. Jets OVER 42.5 | 25-6 | Loss | -113 | 6 h 38 m | Show | |
New England Patriots @ New York Jets Mac Jones has lived up to what he did in college so far. Many thought he was going to be a bust, but the most accurate passer in CFB history definitely looked solid in week 1. If they can generate 393 total yards again, I guarantee that they'll score more than 16 this time. Despite Zach Wilson looking good in his debut, the Jets lost thier opener against their old QB in Sam Darnold in week 1. Their defense wasn't the strongest as they gave up 381 yards of offense in the loss. Dating back to last season, NYJ has seen the total go OVER in 4 of thier last 6 games against oppoents from the AFC. I know both of these teams have rookies starting, but with the two of them off UNDER's to open the season up, I expect a tough fought high scoring battle between these guys today. Ride the OVER. |
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09-16-21 | Giants v. Washington Football Team UNDER 41 | Top | 29-30 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 53 m | Show |
NY Giants @ Washington We played against the Giants in Week 1. They only scored 13 points. Washington wasn't much better. The Football Team managed just 16. Both games were comfortable under winners. The Giants are 9-0 to the under after an ATS loss. Giants also 6-0 to the under after allowing 350 or more yards. WFT 4-0 to the under after a loss. Twenty of the last 28 meetings have produced unders. Two struggling offenses. Two capable defenses. A low-scoring division rivalry. Take the Under. |
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09-16-21 | Astros v. Rangers OVER 8.5 | 12-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
Astros (Valdez, 10-5, 3.26) vs. Rangers (Otto, 0-1, 6.92) The Astros are comfortably in first in their division, while the Rangers are firmly in the cellar. That said, the Rangers are not going with a whimper. At 7-3 in their last 10 games, it is the offense driving this recent success. The Astros (6-4) are always dominant in run production, sitting 2nd in the league at the moment. The Rangers’ rookie, Glen Otto, was brought down to earth in his last start, allowing 8 runs in 3+ innings. Previously he had been sharp in his first two starts, including five innings of shutout pitching against the Astros. Framber Valdez has been effective most of the season, but his last two starts have not been remarkable. After pitching strongly in August his ERA has ballooned to 6.55 in September. As one might expect, the numbers favor the Astros, and they are a huge favorite today. The total is more promising. The Astros were shutout by Otto, and that must be an irritant for these high-flyers. Many rookies start with a flourish, then stumble, and that may be the case today. Valdez could bounce back, but he does give up runs early. The total for the first half is low considering these two offenses. Take the OVER in the first five innings. |
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09-16-21 | Ohio v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 57.5 | 14-49 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 5 m | Show | |
Ohio @ UL Lafayette The Ragin' Cajuns are going to be difficult to score against. They were a bit hungover from the Texas loss and gave up some late points in last week's win. This week, a defense which returned 10 starters will be sure not to allow the same thing to happen. The under is 5-0 in the Ragin' Cajuns last 5 games after they passed for 280 yards in their previous game. Ohio has gotten off to a terrible start. The Bobcats are 0-2 and they lost to the Duquesne Dukes last game. That was the first FCS win in history for the Dukes. Ohio scored only 26 points against a 1AA team which had allowed 45 the previous game. Seven of those points came when the Bobcats returned the opening kick for a TD. Without that, their score looks even worse. The Ragin' Cajuns are 4-0 to the under their last four Thursday games and this one adds to that. Take the Under. |
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09-15-21 | Cubs v. Phillies UNDER 9 | 5-6 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
Cubs (Mills, 6-6, 4.35) vs Phillies (R. Suarez, 6-4, 1.38) What a find the Phillies have in Suarez! Since shifting from reliever/closer, he has been razor sharp. In his last three starts he has allowed 2 runs over 16+ innings. His opponent Alec Mills has been up and down in his last three games, dominating the Reds and White Sox while struggling against Pittsburgh. Looking closer, he is usually a safe bet in his first 5 innings. The Phillies offense is not at its best and their bullpen is very poor of late. The Cubs struggle on the road and will not have much success vs. Suarez. I like the under today, but only in the first half. Take the Cubs and Phillies to go under in the first five innings. |
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09-14-21 | Indians v. Twins UNDER 6.5 | 3-1 | Win | 105 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
Indians (McKenzie, 4-6, 4.44) vs Twins (Ryan, 1-1, 0.42) The Twins used 6 relievers in their loss to the Yankees on Monday, and now face Cleveland in a double header. Rookie Joe Ryan threw 7 innings of shutout ball against the same Indians in his last start, which was only the second start in his career. Any relation to Nolan? Maybe he can give the Twins the innings they need on Tuesday.. The Indians had a day off to give their collective heads a shake and try and recover from their 2-8 bad dream. They also have a fine young right-hander pitching on Tuesday. Tristan McKenzie has been very sharp in his last three games, allowing 1 run each outing over 19 innings. The Indians have the better bullpen, are faster, commit less errors, and are decent on the road. There is just one problem; they have the worst offense in the league of late. The Twins aren’t a powerhouse either and are only a modest home team. In the strange facts category, they are only 5-18 when playing on a Tuesday. It appears neither team wants to win, so lets take the Total. Under 6.5 is available in this 7 inning start. Considering how these two youngsters have handled themselves and their ability to pitch some length, take the Indians and Twins to go UNDER in Game 1. |
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09-13-21 | Ravens v. Raiders OVER 50 | Top | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
Baltimore Ravens @ Las Vegas Raiders The Thursday Night prime-time Opener between the Cowboys and the Buccaneers went well over the posted number. The Sunday Night prime-time matchup between the Rams and the Bears also sailed over the posted number. Now on Monday night we have a couple of high-scoring AFC teams read to battle it out and everything points to these high-scoring prime-time games continuing. The Ravens averaged 29.3 PPG last year. The Raiders averaged 27.1. Baltimore was one of the best defensively last season in conceding only 18.9 PPG, but the Raiders were one of the worst in allowing 29.9. The Raiders and Ravens have played over the total the last five times they've met. Expect that high-scoring streak to continue here in their first game of the 2021/22 season. The play is the over the total 10* |
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09-13-21 | Cardinals v. Mets UNDER 8 | 7-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
Cardinals (Wainwright, 15-7, 2.98) vs. Mets (Hill, 6-6, 3.82) The Mets and Cardinals are long-shots for a wild card spot, so this is still a significant series. Neither team has been able to break out of the .500 winning % range and make a run. It is Adam Wainwright vs Rich Hill on Monday. Wainwright has been one of the best in the league this season and shows no real signs of slowing down. He allowed 4 runs over 8+ innings in last outing which, for him, is a poor start. He is 6-1 with a 1.57 ERA over his last 7. Rich Hill has been a bit of a surprise for the Mets, especially in September, with an ERA of 0.61 in 12 innings pitched over two starts. He has been very dependable and hasn’t given up more than 3 ER in 8 starts. The Mets’ pen has been steady all year and even better in their last games. Where there has also been improvement is in run production, although less so against right-handers. The Cardinals have been very soft at the plate, especially in the last three weeks. Their bullpen is usually average and has been slightly better last 7. They are effective vs. lefties. It is a tough call on a winner in this game so I’m looking at the total. Both starters have been very effective and pitch for length. The total is not high considering the quality of the starters. Take the Cards and Mets to go Under. |
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09-12-21 | Bears v. Rams UNDER 45 | Top | 14-34 | Loss | -106 | 445 h 1 m | Show |
Chicago Bears @ Los Angeles Rams Two teams that were pretty good defensively last year, and inconsistent on the offensive end collide in LA tonight. The bottom line for this one for me though is that each starts a new quarterback in a new system and I think that despite both being veteran's, that it'll take time for both Andy Dalton of the Bears and Matthew Stafford of the Rams to form chemsitry with their respective offenses. Each side will be focused on establishing the run while on offense. We can expect a heavy pass rush from each defense as well. When we consider what each of these team's game-plan will be in Week 1, we have to conclude that the under is the correct call. |
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09-12-21 | Red Sox v. White Sox UNDER 9 | 1-2 | Win | 101 | 3 h 53 m | Show | |
Red Sox (Pivetta, 9-7, 4.67) vs White Sox (Lynn, 10-4, 2.59) With a good lead in the AL Central, the White Sox are comfortable, but for Boston it is red alert in their hunt for a wild card spot in the very competitive AL East. Both starters have missed a start; Pivetta with Covid issues, and Lynn with a long-standing knee inflammation. Pivetta has struggled in August at 1-3, and 5.27 ERA. Lynn is coming off his worst start, allowing 7 runs over 5 innings. It will be interesting to see how these two starters respond. Both of these teams can hit. Boston in particular has been potent lately. Both teams are very strong against righties. Pivetta has given up 4 runs in five innings or less in his last three starts. With both starters’ layoffs, a little rust is to be expected. I am looking at the early total today. Take the Sox’ game to go under in the first five innings. |
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09-11-21 | Vanderbilt v. Colorado State UNDER 51 | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 102 h 17 m | Show |
Vanderbilt @ Colorado State The Commodores scored only three points in their Week 1 game. That was a very disappointing loss against East Tennessee State. Vanderbilt was favored by more than 3 touchdowns. That showed just how bad Vanderbilt really is. Scoring won't be any easier this week. The Rams were better than Vanderbilt but they weren't good either. They lost against South Dakota State, scoring only 23 points. Vanderbilt rushed for 2.7 yards per carry, CSU ran for 3.1 ypg. Commodores 4-0 to the Under L4 non-conference games. Rams 5-0 to the Under L5 vs. losing teams. Take the UNDER |
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09-11-21 | Reds v. Cardinals OVER 8 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
Reds (Castillo, 7-15, 4.20) vs Cardinals (Mikolas, 0-2, 5.06) The Reds padded their lead over the Cards yesterday, and will look to add on today. Luis Castillo starts for the Reds. Castillo has pitched better than his won/lost record would suggest, with solid starts of some length. He lost to the Cards a couple of starts ago but only gave up a pair of runs. His opponent is Mike Mikolas. Mikolas has yet to find his groove after a very long stretch on the DL, giving up 11 runs in12+innings pitched. He did stretch out his last start to 5 innings. The Cards bullpen has been solid but did stumble in the 9th yesterday. The Reds’ pen has been a stumbling block all season and has an ERA of 6.20 in their last 7 games. The Reds have the superior offense in theory although they have under-achieved of late. The Cards, after a brief power surge,have been about normal, meaning low scoring, in the past week. The Reds are a good road team, 50-38 as a favorite and solid against right-handers. Mikolas has yet to show signs of improvement. The wind is blowing out today. Take this game to GO OVER THE TOTAL. |
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09-11-21 | Giants v. Cubs UNDER 10.5 | 15-4 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 36 m | Show | |
Giants (Gausman, 13-5, 2.58) vs Cubs, Davies, 6-10, 5.16) The Giants are on a tear, winning Friday 6-1 on a bullpen day. Eight pitchers combined for 1 run! Pretty well the only team as hot as them are their opponents today; the surprising Chicago Cubs. Why have the Cubs been winning? Bats and bullpen. They have been hitting above their weight for a few weeks and their relievers have been extremely effective in their last 7 games, with an ERA of 1.05. There is a caveat here; the pen has been averaging 4.9 innings a game of late which is unsustainable. Note that today the bullpen struggled and the offense was subpar. This is more typical of the Cubs this season. Zack Davies starts for the Cubs. It has been a poor season for Davies. He is 1-4, 6.70 since the All-star break, and has struggled at home. His starts have been very short lately, averaging about 4 innings. He can pitch effectively, but the poor starts are becoming more frequent. Kevin Gausman starts for the Giants. He isn’t pitching for quite the same length nor is he quite as effective at 4-2, 4.56 ERA since the All-star break, but he is still one of the premier starters in baseball. He is very sharp on the road (7-2, 1.95 ERA). The Giants bullpen has been consistent all year, and has a 2.23 ERA lately. The Giants have also ridden their pen hard to the tune of 4.62 innings per game, and with eight pitchers used on Friday it is concerning.The Giants have a solid offense but it is better than usual in the past couple of weeks. They are very good away, versus right-handers, you name it, they are good at it. Let's look at the total. I don’t see the Cubs scoring a lot of runs vs. Gausman, and while Davies was roughed up for 6 runs last start, he gave up 2 and 1 in his previous outings. The total is very high at 10.5. Take the Giants and Cubs to go under, even considering the weather. |
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09-10-21 | Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 43 m | Show | |
Padres (Musgrove, 10-8, 2.87) vs Dodgers (Urias, 16-3, 3.11) The Padres are now a long shot for any post-season activities other than golf. The Dodgers are still in the hunt for first in the NL West. It is hard to say who is the Dodgers’ ace but certainly their winning-est pitcher is on the hill on Friday. Urias has been an eye-opener this season and shows no sign of slowing down. He has a 5-0 record since the All-star break and hasn’t given up more than two runs in 8 starts. Urias’s starts aren’t the longest, but he has already pitched 150+ innings which is more than double than in any other year in his career. Urias is supported by by the Dodgers’ very fine pen, with a 1.69 ERA in the last 7 games. Facing him is Joe Musgrove, no slouch as a starter himself. In three starts, he has given up only 3 runs in 20+ innings, including a full game shut out. San Diego’s normally good bullpen has not been as sharp of late, with an ERA of 4.30. The Padres are 3-3 in their last 6 games. They are 24 -16 versus lefties, but only 30-34 on the road. The Dodgers are lights out as a home team, and 61-38 vs. right-handed starters. They have great starters, a terrific pen, so why aren’t they leading the NL West? Because their once potent offense has stumbled into the nether regions of MLB team batting stats in recent weeks. In fact both teams are struggling in average and run production.. Two quality starters and two underachieving lineups. As of now the total is set at 81/2, which seems high to me. Take the Padres and Dodgers to go under on Friday evening. |
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09-09-21 | Rockies v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
Rockies (Senzatela, 4.16, 4-9) vs. Phillies (Suarez, 6-4, 1.38) The Rockies are going nowhere this year and at 3-7 in their last 10 games they are playing like it. The Phillies are still in the mix for a wild card spot but wins are now of the essence. Ranger Suarez has been a bright light since he switched to the starter’s role. He is now regularly pitching into the 6th inning and his ERA is super sharp at 1.38. He has only allowed 2 runs over 17 innings in 3 starts. Senzatela has also been solid lately although his record and the team record will not show it. He is 2-1 with an ERA of 3.11 since the All-star break and one of the few bright spots in the Rockies lineup. The Rockies road stats are astoundingly poor. They are 5 and 12 as a road underdog, and 18- 50 on the road. The Phillies are 39-28 at home, and 7-1 as a strong home favorite. They are very successful against right-handed pitchers. The offensive stats for the two teams are remarkably similar from average to runs scored to slugging %. They are also both struggling, with the 20th and 21st best offenses in MLB this past week. I am going to bypass bullpens today and just look at the first half. Based on both teams’ poor run production, and a lack of experience and/or success with the pair of strong starters, I am looking for the total to go under in the first five innings. |
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09-09-21 | Royals v. Orioles UNDER 8.5 | 6-0 | Win | 101 | 8 h 11 m | Show | |
Royals (Hernandez, 5-1, 3.57) vs. Orioles (Means, 5-6, 3.47) With little to play for but pride and salaries, KC is 3-7, and the Orioles, slightly better at 5-5. Carlos Hernandez starts for the Royals. He has been a bright light this season, and now has 11 starts under his belt. He is 2-0 in his last three starts, allowing only 3 runs in 19 innings. His opponent John Means had a no hitter in May, and has been steady since return from the DL. He has allowed 7 runs over 17+ innings in his last three starts. The Orioles have not been kind to Means with a 7-14 record when he is on the mound. The Orioles are woeful at home, and in the rare times they are a home favorite, equally bad. In the weird facts category, they appear to not enjoy playing on Thursdays, going 2-10. Their bullpen usually struggles but, last night aside, has been better lately. KC is poor on the road, but better vs lefties. They apparently don’t mind playing on Thursdays, with a record of 7-9! Neither offense is particularly potent, and today’s starters are about the best these two teams can offer. Last night’s game featured a very high total but I don’t think that will be repeated today. The under has featured in both of these starters’ games, and that is what I expect today. Royals and Orioles to go under. |
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09-08-21 | White Sox v. A's OVER 8.5 | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
White Sox (Keuchel, 8-8, 5.21) vs. Athletics (Montas, 11-9, 3.68) The Sox and A’s are back at it today as Keuchel faces Montas. Keuchel has been inconsistent at best with only a rare quality start. He won against the A’s in August but that was the exception. The A’s batters have had considerable success against him in the past. He was 1-3 in August with a miserable 7.43 ERA, and has been poor on the road. Facing him is Frankie Montas. With a pair of 7 inning shutouts in his last 3 starts, Montas has been sharp lately, and pitches for length, something the A’s need desperately. Their bullpen has been overworked and pounded mercilessly in their last games. The White Sox have scored a ton of runs lately, and the A’s offense has been pulling its weight. The A’s are very good against lefties, which is bad news for Keuchel. The White Sox are good against righties and have had some success against Montas. I am looking at the total today. With the combination of Keuchel’s woes and the A’s inept bullpen plus both teams’ respective abilities vs. right and left, take the total to go over today. |
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09-07-21 | White Sox v. A's OVER 9 | 6-3 | Push | 0 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
White Sox (Lambert, 0-1,5.40) vs. A’s (Kaprielian, 7-4, 3.87) Off a loss, and with an off day, the A’s need to change their feeble ways to keep any hopes of a wild card spot alive. Their fine rookie, James Kaprielian is on the mound, only he hasn’t been so fine lately. His ERA has regressed each month since the season opened. He has given up 11 runs over 13 innings in his last three starts. The home run ball (8 in his last 4 games) has hurt him badly, and his expected start length is only 4 to 5 inning. The White Sox are having starting pitcher injury woes, which is likely why Triple A call up Jimmy Lambert is starting. He has given up 4 runs over 6 innings as a starter, so look for a very short outing today. Both teams will likely rely on their bullpens to a greater extent today. This is OK for the White Sox and very bad news for the A’s. The Athletics’ pen has a monstrous ERA of 8.07 in their last 7 games. As far as offense goes, The White Sox are one of the more potent teams in the MLB and the A’s are hitting above their weight lately. I am looking at the total in this game. The White Sox have scored more than 10 runs in 4 of the last 9 games. The A’s have allowed 43 runs in their last five games! I had to check my math twice.. I am taking today’s game to go over the total. |
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09-06-21 | Phillies v. Brewers OVER 7 | 12-0 | Win | 100 | 3 h 57 m | Show | |
Phillies (Wheeler, 11-9, 3.01) vs Brewers (Woodruff, 9-7, 2.35) Here are two teams still in the hunt. The Phillies have been hot and send out their ace, Zack Wheeler today. Wheeler has been in the run for the Cy Young award and has pitched the most innings in the league, but he shows all of the signs of a tired pitcher in his last starts. He is 3-3 in August with an era of 4.81. It gets worse. He has given up 15 runs in the last 20+ innings. He has been less successful on the road. Brandon Woodruff is on the mound for the Brewers. Since a blip some starts ago, Woodruff has been very sharp, allowing only 1 run over 12 innings in his last 2 starts. He is excellent at home and in day games. The Phillies have had no success against Woodruff. The Brewers are not a great home team, but they have dominated right-handed pitchers to the tune of 66-39. One issue today is that their usually sound bullpen has struggled mightily in their last 7 games. The Phillies offense has been potent in recent weeks, and are also successful against the right. Their bullpen has been much better with an ERA of 2.84 in their last 7 games. These two teams haven’t faced each other since May when the Phillies swept the Brewers. I expect the Brewers are looking for a little payback this series. I like Woodruff in this game, but the Brewers’ relief tumble scares me off a bit. The under for the first five innings is low, and with Wheeler being very average of late, seems like a good bet. Take the total to go over in the first five innings. |
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09-05-21 | Winnipeg v. Saskatchewan OVER 42.5 | Top | 23-8 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
Winnipeg vs. Saskatchewan Labor Day weekend is a big deal in the Canadian Football League. As far as Saskatchewan fans are concerned, this is one of the biggest games of the season. Both teams are playing good football. The Green Riders are 3-0. The defending champions are 3-1. Both teams have shown an early tendency to the under. That has created a low total. Too low for a CFL game featuring the top rated offense, in terms of points scored per game, in the league. The Riders average 28.7 points per game. Last 10 meetings saw total lines ranging between 45.5 and 60. Saskatchewan has gone 6-1 to the Over when off a bye. Take the Over |
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09-04-21 | Fresno State v. Oregon OVER 63.5 | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
Fresno State @ Oregon Fans of offense are in for a treat. Fresno State averaged 32.8 ppg and 479 ypg last year. This year's offense is loaded and already scored 45 points and 538 yards against UConn its opener. Oregon has 9 returning offensive starters. They have an experienced QB, throwing to excellent receivers, playing behind an experienced offensive line. The Ducks scored more than 30 points in every game but one last year. Ducks are 6-2 to the over last eight times they faced a team with a winning record. Bulldogs are 5-1 to the over last six times they were off an ATS win. Go with the Over. |
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09-01-21 | Astros v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | 0-1 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 6 m | Show | |
Astros (Odorizzi: 6-6, 4.46) vs Mariners (Gilbert: 5-5, 5.44) Houston was shut out last night. Kikuchi surprised me with an unexpected return to pre-allstar form. Rookie Logan Gilbert is pitching for the Mariners, and any surprises are far more unlikely. Gilbert has struggled mightily; in his last 3 starts he has given up 19 runs in 12+ innings. He has been poor at home, and was absolutely pummeled by the Astros just 10 days ago. Odorrizzi starts for the Astros today. He is 3-2 in August and has allowed 7 runs in his last 15+ innings. He is not a good road starter and has struggled against the right. The Astros have the edge in offense, and tend to prey upon struggling right-handers. Let us take the bullpens out of the equation, and wager on the first half. Take the Astros/ Mariners total to go over in the first five innings. |
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09-01-21 | Cardinals v. Reds OVER 7 | 5-4 | Win | 111 | 3 h 58 m | Show | |
Cardinals (Mikolas: 0-1, 2.70) vs Reds (Miley: 11-4, 2.74) The Reds, still in the hunt for a wild card spot, have lost 3 in a row, and it turns to Wade Miley to slap on a band-aid before things get out of hand. Miley has been terrific for the Reds, 3-0 in August, whilegiving up only 2 runs in his last three starts. He has a 7-2 record at home. His opponent today is Miles Mikolas, a recent returnee from a serious stretch on the DL. The early returns on Mikolas are very promising. He has given up 4 runs over 13+ innings in his first three starts. The Reds are one of the best hitting teams around, and to date, Mikolas has only faced the Pirates twice, so it might be a little early to jump on his bandwagon. In addition, the usually dependable Cards’ bullpen has not been as good. The Reds pen is always a sore spot on an otherwise strong team. The total has gone under far more than average for these two teams, leading to an unnaturally low one today. The Reds bats will be hungry today. Take the first game of the Card/Reds doubleheader to go OVER. |
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08-31-21 | Braves v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
Braves (Morton:12-5, 3.60) vs Dodgers (Buehler (13-2, 2.02) This is a must series for both teams. The Dodgers took their eye off the ball, lost 2 of 3 to Colorado, and were limited to 7 runs total. They have their big three on the mound against the Braves, starting with Walker Buehler. Buehler is as good a starter as you will find in the MLB. In his last three games he has allowed 3 runs in 21+ innings. He has an exceptional home record and is solid vs. both right and left. His mound opponent is no slouch. 37 years old Morton is still bringing it. He has been dominant on the road, and aside from a poorish start against the Yankees, allowing 2 runs or less while pitching an average of 6 innings per start. These are two surging teams. Atlanta struggled against the Yankees and the Dodgers vs Colorado, but otherwise, winning has become a habit. The Dodgers surpass the Braves slightly in most categories from runs scored to relief ERA. It is hard to bet against the Dodgers so I am looking at the total. It is surprisingly high, so take the total to go under. |
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08-28-21 | Reds v. Marlins UNDER 7.5 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
Red (Gutierrez) vs Marlins (Alcantara) Saturday’s Reds/Marlins game features Vlad. Gutierrez and Sandy Alcantara, two very good 25 year old starters. These two pitchers faced off in their last starts just a week ago, resulting in a very well-pitched 3-1 Reds win. Alcantara has been consistent and solid all season but it doesn’t ever seem to show in the win column. In his last three starts, he allowed 2 or less runs, delivered a total of 22 innings pitched and only won one of three. Largely this is caused by Miami’s soft offense. In yesterday’s column, I described them as the 98 lb. weakling of the MLB and they proved me right, losing to the Reds 6-0. Rookie Gutierrez (9-4, 3.68) has been equally effective, but has had the run support. He is 5-1, with an ERA of 2.95 in his last seven starts. Gutierrez has the mighty Reds bats to support him, which is good because one can’t always count on Cincinnati’s relievers. The one negative aspect with the Reds is their bullpen. Luckily Gutierrez has delivered length as well as wins this season. The total is set quite low, but I still think it is the right wager. Take Red/ Marlins to go under the total. |
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08-28-21 | Red Sox v. Indians UNDER 9.5 | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
Red Sox (Eovaldi) vs Indians (Quantrill) Th Indians lost to The Red Sox last night but have played well lately. They have Cal Quantrill (4-1, 3.44) a good young right-handed pitcher on the mound on Saturday. He is 1-0 in his last 3 games but has given up only 5 runs in 18 innings. The only problem with Quantrill is the rest of the Indians. They have a team record of 6-10 with him as a starter. Boston has Nathan Eovaldi (10-8, 3.66) starting. He has also been very solid, allowing only 3 runs in 19 innings. Of note, Eovaldi is a much different animal on the road, with a 5.02 ERA. Cleveland is not a team that will commonly out-hit anyone, particularly the Red Sox. They have a reliable bullpen who have been extra sharp (1.95 ERA) in their last 7 games. The Red Sox pen has not excelled of late. Boston is just 5-5 in their last 10 games and have now been passed by the Yankees for 2nd in their division. They have had some very high totals in runs scored in the past while which might account for the high total today. Certainly these two starters and Cleveland’s bullpen don’t warrant it. As you might have guessed, I am wagering on the total. Take Boston and Cleveland to go under. |
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08-26-21 | Royals v. Mariners OVER 8 | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
Royals (Brad Keller) vs. Mariners (Kikuchi) At 7-3 in their last 10 games, Seattle has closed the gap to one game behind the slumping A’s. KC, also 7-3, is playing for pride at this point but doing a pretty good job of it. Every series is critical for the Mariners, and they need today’s starter Kikuchi to return to his pre-Allstar form. He is off a very poor start, and has struggled with pitch effectiveness of late. He is 1-1 with a 5.50 ERA in August, and has a poor home record this year. Brad Keller (not to be confused with the other Keller I am wagering on today) is 8-12 this year with an ERA of 5.43. At 2-3 and an ERA of 3.43 in his last 7 games he has shown a marked improvement of late. He tends to pitch better on the road but struggles vs. RHB. The Mariners favor a right handed pitcher and are a solid home team. KC struggles on the road, but is good vs left-handed pitching. The Royals’ relief corps have been especially sharp in their last 7 games, while The Mariner’s bullpen has struggled lately. Today’s question is: is this the day that Kikuchi rights the ship? Second question: will Keller continue his winning ways? The total today is low. I am wagering that the answer to at least one of these questions is no. Take this game to go over the total. |
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08-26-21 | Yankees v. A's UNDER 8.5 | 7-6 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
Yankees (Taillon) vs A’s (Kaprielian) The Yankees are 10-0. The slumping Athletics have lost 9 of 12. Let us sidestep the issue of who wins, who loses, and look at the total. Kaprielian, Oakland’s starter has 2 of the A’s recent wins. He has allowed only 6 runs in his last 16 innings pitched. The Yankees, other than Gallo, have struggled when facing him. Taillon, 4-0 in his last 7 starts, has a sparkling 1.99 ERA in that time. The A’s have not had much success against him. The Yankees pen has been in its usual fine form, however Oakland’s usually dependable relievers have struggled. I like the TOTAL in the first 5 innings to go UNDER today. |
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08-26-21 | Cardinals v. Pirates UNDER 8.5 | 7-11 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
Cardinals (Mikolas) vs Pirates (Keller) The two starters on Thursday are both finding their way in the MLB, but for very different reasons. Keller was sent to the Minors after a very poor stretch early in the season. Mikolas has started only two games this season and also missed all of 2020 due to injury. In his first start back since May he threw for 5 innings giving up 0 runs on 2 hits. The same game was Mitch Keller’s best start of the season. He also threw for 5 innings and also gave up no runs. Keller’s stats are shaky, but since his return he has shown steady improvement. The light-hitting Cards are a powerhouse when compared to the Pirates. Pittsburgh has the lowest runs-scored output in the MLB. Their other stats are equally poor; they are 11-21 as a home underdog, and 36-52 vs the right. Their bullpen has been better than usual at a 3.49 ERA in their last 7 games. The Cardinals, off a win against Detroit, are now 5-5 for the last ten games. Their bullpen has been terrific lately at 2.23 in their last 7 games. They have a good record as a road favorite, which admittedly does not happen all that often. I’ll give Keller a little more credit than his stats would suggest. Watching the highlights of his last start Mikolas looked terrific, and could be a great addition to the Cards’ rotation. I am wagering on a total in this game. Take the TOTAL to go UNDER. |
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08-25-21 | Reds v. Brewers OVER 7.5 | 1-4 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 56 m | Show | |
Reds (Castillo) vs Brewers (Woodruff) The Brewer are sitting comfortably in first in their division, but the Reds, 7 games back are still in the mix for a wild card spot. it is Castillo (7-12, 4.35)) vs Woodruff (7-7, 2.48) on the mound tonight. Castillo started very poorly this season and then turned things around through July and August. His thirdlast start was a reversion to the dark side, but he was sharp in his last two starts, going 14 innings and allowing only 4 runs. Woodruff (7-7, 2.49) is usually very dependable but something was up in his last two starts. He was removed after 3 innings for wildness two starts ago, then bombed in his last start, allowing a very uncharacteristic 6 runs in five innings. One bad outing? No big deal, but two poor outings can signify trouble. The Reds have an enviable road record and have much the better offense. It is their bullpen that has the Reds’ Manger Bell tearing his hair out. Milwaukee’s offense is middle of the pack but their pen has been very reliable, including a collective ERA in the low twos in their last 7 games. They have an exceptional record against right-handed starters. The total is very low for these teams, but considering Woodruff’s last two starts, the Reds’ potent bats, and the Brewers’ record vs right-handers, I am looking for more runs to be scored. Take the Total to go OVER in the first five innings. |
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08-23-21 | Royals v. Astros UNDER 9 | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
KC Royals (Lynch) vs. Houston Astros (Greinke) While a run for the playoffs is out of the question, the Royals are still playing like the season means something. They swept the Cubs and that was after taking 3 of 4 against the Astros in Houston. On Monday, 24 year old Daniel Lynch (3-3, 5.12) will take on the Astros for the second time in his short career. Lynch was miserable in his first call-up, but since returning in July, he has been a very effective starter. He is 3-1 since the all-star break with a 2.35 ERA. He held the Astros to 1 run over seven innings when he last faced them. At 37 years of age, Zack Greinke (11-3, 3.49) is still in fine form. He is still pitching for length (6-7 innings per start), and has been terrific in August with a razor-sharp era of 1.89. Both teams are getting strong results from their bullpens, although Houston’s was well worked over in an 11 inning loss on Sunday. KC’s has been terrific with a collective ERA of 1.42 in their last 7 games. As far as the offense goes, it is all Astros. They lead the Royals by almost 2 runs scored per game, and 25 points in batting average. They have a very good home record, but are not as successful against left handed pitchers. The Royals have not shown well on the road this season, and have not been effective vs righties. The Astros are unlikely to take KC lightly this time around after their last series. They are a heavy favorite on Monday. I actually like the Royals’ chances in this game but am more confident in the total. These are two very effective starters with good length to their outings and solid relief. The total seems high. I am wagering on the total to go under on Monday. |
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08-22-21 | Angels v. Indians UNDER 9 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
LA Angels (Suarez) vs. Cleveland Indians (Quantrill) The Angels and Indians are very evenly matched teams at the moment, right down to the pair of young relievers turned starters on the mound on Sunday. Neither team is completely out of contention, but at 5-5 last 10 will need to get a move on if either teams wants to make a play for the post season. Cleveland’s Cal Quantrill (3.24) has been very effective since making the move to starter. He is 2-0 with an ERA of 1.76 in his last seven starts and has stretched himself out to an average of 6 innings per outing. He hasn’t had much support but is backed by a solid pen that has been even better than average in their last 7 games. Jose Suarez’ transition to starter has not been quite as easy. He is 2-5 with an ERA of 5.45 in his last seven games, and struggles facing left-handed batters. His starts are somewhat shorter at around 5 innings, but he will be supported by a recently improved pen. After sweeping the Tigers, it looked like LA had some momentum, but they lost two straight vs Cleveland and have been limited to a total of 2 runs. Is this scoring drought to continue? Cleveland hasn’t the highest run output and with Quantrill on the mound, I believe the score will stay low. Take the Angels and Indians to go under the total. |
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08-22-21 | Marlins v. Reds UNDER 9 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 38 m | Show | |
Marlins (Alcantara) vs Reds (Gutierrez) The light hitting and struggling Marlins have lost three in a row to the Reds and look to Sandy Alcantara for some return to good fortune. Considering Miami’s bullpen of late, Alcantara (7-11, 3.87) may need a complete game for a win on Saturday. Other than a terrible effort in Coors Field, Alcantara is capable of such a start. In his past two outings he has given up only 1 run in 15 innings total. His run support from the Marlins has been dismal. His mound opponent is the other Vladi. Gutierrez (8-4,3.87) may not have the batting chops, but he has delivered as a starter. In 18 innings pitched over 3 starts, he has limited the opposition to 4 ER total. He can’t rely on the Reds’ bullpen, which as been pretty awful of late. All of the offensive stats favor the Reds. Miami is low on average, slugging, and run production. They are 12-23 as a road dog, 21-42 on the road and have never face Gutierrez before. I like the total to go under, and have been very sharp with them of late. The Marlins and the Red relief has been in tatters lately, so take the Under in the first five innings. |
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08-20-21 | White Sox v. Rays OVER 9 | Top | 7-5 | Win | 101 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
White Sox (Giolito) vs Rays (Wacha) The team record for a given pitcher is a curious stat. Lucas Giolitto is 9-9 with a good ERA of 3.83, pitching for a very strongWhite Sox team. His team record? 11-13. Michael Wacha is 2-4, and has struggled most of the season, with a 5.91 ERA. Team Record? 10-6. Part of Wacha’s success is due to Tampa’s novel and successful use of their bullpen. Compared to the White Sox, the Rays’ relievers average an extra inning per game over the course of the season. Lately the bullpen has accounted for an average of more than half the Rays’ total innings. And with a collective ERA of 2.68, is it really any surprise? Wacha has been pretty poor in his last 3 starts. He is 0-2 and has given up 18 earned runs in 14 innings. Needless to say we cannot expect a long outing out of him. Giolito has had only one bad start since mid-July, and is capable of good length in his starts. Against Wacha, it may be the day that Giolito gets some run support. These are two division-leading teams, but the White Sox have been struggling at 5-5 last ten. They are not the best road team, but they are very solid against right-handed pitching. The Rays are 7-3, a terrific home team and very effective against right handed pitching. I hate betting against the Rays, so I won’t. They always seem capable of turning a sandwich into a banquet somehow. I am looking at the total. At 9, Wacha on the mound, two very good offenses, I think it is low. Take the White Sox and Rays to go over the total. |
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08-19-21 | Brewers v. Cardinals OVER 8 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
Milwaukee (Woodruff) vs st. Louis (Lester) The Brewers meet the Cards for the second game of their series on Thursday. Off a loss, St Louis starts Jon Lester (9-10), 5.32). Lester is coming off a terrific start, pitching into the 6th and allowed only one run, but this has not been the norm. In his previous two outings, he gave up more runs than innings pitched. Woodruff, (7-6, 2.18) for the Brewers has been excellent all season, if a bit hard luck. He has given up 4 runs in his last three starts, but has suffered from a lack of run support. Both starters are familiar to the opposing batters and have struggled to some extent. Milwaukee’s bull pen has not been as sharp as usual, while the Cardinals’, other that their closer, has been solid. Milwaukee has some impressive road stats, but St Louis is no pushover at home. Both teams have been successful of late. I have great respect for Woodruff, but he was wild enough last start to have it cut short at 3 innings. I doubt that Lester has two dominating starts in a row in him. The total is low for Thursday’s game. Take the Total to go Over. |
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08-19-21 | Astros v. Royals OVER 9 | 6-3 | Push | 0 | 4 h 29 m | Show | |
Astros (Garcia) vs Kansas City (Minor) Off three straight losses and with the A’s just a couple of games back, Houston can no longer be comfortable. I am sure that losing the first two games to the lowly Royals was not in the plans. Luis Garcia (9-5, 3.32) starts for the Astros. It would be incorrect to say that he is struggling; after all he pitched 6 shut-out innings only 2 starts ago. Still, he is 3-2 with a 4.33 era in his last seven starts, and hasn’t shown as well on the road. He will be supported by a highly motivated, very potent offense and a sharp set of relievers. Mike Minor (8-11, 5.35) starts for KC. He is 2-5 in his last seven, but can still deliver the innings; he has allowed 11 runs in 18 innings in his hast three starts. The Astros are a far better hitting team and have had their way with Minor in the past. They are 14-9 as a home favorite. The Royals have done well as a road underdog and have never faced Garcia. Houston is a heavy favorite. It is hard to imagine the Astros losing three straight against the Royals, but it is the total that attracts me in this game. Neither starter has been especially sharp, and I can’t imagine the Astros’ big bats not making their presence known on Thursday. Take the total to go over. |
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08-17-21 | Brewers v. Cardinals UNDER 7 | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
Milwaukee (Burns) vs. Cardinals (Wainwright) The ‘old feller’ of the Cards starting rotation is on the hill and has he ever been grand. Adam Wainwright (11-6, 3.27) shows no sign of slowing down; in fact he threw a 9 inning 2 hit shutout his last start. He has been remarkably consistent, terrific at home, and 5-1 in his last 7 starts. His opponent, Corbin Burns (7/4, 2.23) is hardly an old man, but has been pretty grand himself. At 4-0 and 2.06, he has been exceptional on the road, and 3-0 post all-star break. Both teams are surging at 7-3 (Mil.) and 8-2 (Cards), and are off wins. The Brewers pen has struggled slightly, the Cards’ has been sharp, although these starters have a history of long starts. Milwaukee has the nod in offense, and has an exceptional road record. The total is very low today, but if there was to be a game with a low score this is it. Take the Brewers and Cards to go under the total. |
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08-16-21 | Indians v. Twins UNDER 9.5 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
Indians (Quantrill) vs. Twins (Jax) The Indians and Twins open a series today with a pair of young and talented starters on the mound. Griffin Jax (2-1, 4.36 ERA) is in his fifth start of the season, but has pitched well enough that his traveling days back and forth to Triple A are likely over. In his brief career he has faced the White Sox twice and the Astros, and come out relatively unscathed. He is 2-0 in his last three starts, allowing 5 runs in 16 innings pitched. He has struggled against right-handed pitching. Cal Quantrill (3-1, 3.65 ERA) didn’t start a game until the end of May, but has pitched very well since. He is 3-0 in his last seven starts with a very impressive 1.71 ERA. The Twins are playing well at the moment at 7-3, and have had effective relief pitching of late. The Indians, at 5-5 have been struggling, and their usually sharp pen has tanked lately. It is tough to call a winner in this game, but I am confident in the total. Both starters are now capable of longish starts, and the total has been consistently under in their appearances. I am looking for this game to continue the trend. Take the Under today. |
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08-15-21 | Astros v. Angels OVER 9 | 1-3 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 17 m | Show | |
Astros (McCullers Jr.) vs. Angels (Detmers) This could be a mismatch. The Astros have Lance McCullers Jr. on the mound facing Reid Detmers in just his third start. Detmers struggled mightily in his first 2 starts, and has a 10.61 ERA in his brief career. I am sure he is a better pitcher than those stats would imply, but facing the formidable Astros lineup might be too much of a challenge today. McCullers is 9-3 with an ERA of 3.22. While he has a 7-0 away record, he has not been quite as sharp lately. What has been sharp is the Astros’ bullpen (1.42 collective ERA), in large contrast to the Angels’ relief efforts (6.23 ERA last 7). The Astros have the most potent offense and the largest run differential in the MLB. They are 14-7 as a road favorite. The Angels, off a pair of losses to the Astros, can scores runs but pale in comparison to Houston. Obviously Houston is a favorite; it is more a question of by how much they will win. Considering Detmer’s past results, the Angels’ poor bullpen and The Astro’s power, I am looking for this game to go over the Total. |
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08-11-21 | A's v. Indians UNDER 9 | 6-3 | Push | 0 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
Oakland A’s (Montas) vs Cleveland Indians (Quantrill) After beating Cleveland in extra innings, Oakland has won 5 straight games straight. Today they face the Indians’ young starter Cal Quantrill (3-1, 3.71), who has been an eye opener in his last 6 starts. In his last three starts, he has allowed only 1 run over 19 innings. It is a pity that the Indians haven’t taken more of an advantage of his fine stuff.. The A’s have Frankie Montas on the mound, who has also been strong. He is 2-1 in his last 7 starts with a 2.76 ERA. Montas has been averaging 6 innings per start with an absolute ton of strikeouts. Both bullpens have been lights-out of late, with collective ERA’s of under 2.00. Oakland has been a very fine road team this year and are still in play for a wildcard spot. Is Cleveland out of contention? Not completely, so the motivation is still there to compete. They have been a decent home team this year. I am taking a total here. Neither team is an offensive force, with two strong starters on the mound today and good relief available. Take the Total to go Under. |
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08-10-21 | Cardinals v. Pirates OVER 9 | 4-1 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
Cards (Happ) vs Pirates (Brault) The Pirates return home after a lamentable road trip, going 3-7 in their last 10 games. A day off and a home start might change things somewhat. They face J.A. Happ (5-6, 6.62) and the Cardinals on Tuesday. Happ pitched better than usual in his first start for his new team, but has not been generally successful this year. He is 2-3 with an era of 8.10 in his last 7 games, has been poor vs. both sides of the plate, and struggled on the road. His opponent is lefty Steven Brault. Brault was an effective starter last year but was sidelined until recently. In his first start back was vs. Milwaukee, and he held them to 1 run and 3 hits over 4 innings. I would confidently bet on Brault and the Pirates, if it weren’t for Pittsburgh bullpen. It has been extremely poor, and with Brault likely on a leash, this gives the Cardinals plenty of time to get back in the game. The Card’s pen is one aspect of the team that has played well this season and has been good of late. I am wagering on the total on Monday. Look for the Cards/Pirates total to go over. |
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08-07-21 | Tigers v. Indians UNDER 9.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
Tigers (T. Alexander) vs Indians (Morgan) These two teams played on Friday with Cleveland winning handily. On Saturday, two unheralded starters are on the mound. With ERAs of 4.77 and 6.75, one might say it wasn’t surprising. Looking closer, both starters have merit. Alexander for the Tigers (0-0, 4.77), a Starter/long reliever, has no record, but his team is 5-0 with him on the mound. His appearances are short bu he has pitched well in 4 of his 5 last starts. The Indians’ Eli Morgan at 23 is a bit more of the risk/reward type. He has bounced up and down from Triple A this year, but is likely here to stay, especially after his last outing against the Jays (6 innings, 2 ER, 9 strikeouts). It is worth checking out the highlights of that game; he was very impressive. Both bullpens have been very sharp of late. This is no surprise with Cleveland, but Detroit’s relievers have been surprisingly dominant in their last seven games. The under has figured prominently in many of these teams’ results lately. I am looking at a total today. Alexander has been efficient, and I think that Morgan is a young starter with lots of potential. With two solid pens to back them I am expecting the total to go under today. Good luck! |
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08-05-21 | Pirates v. Reds OVER 9.5 | 4-7 | Win | 102 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh (Crowe) vs Reds (S. Gray) The Pirates are struggling, with 7-3 record in their last ten games, a lamentable away record, and a bullpen that has been poor beyond belief in their last seven games. Looking at Wil Crowe’s stats, you wouldn’t think he gives them much of a chance to turn things around. In fact, since the all-star break, Crowe has pitched well (2-0, 3.24 ERA), and has some support from his mates with a team record of 7/8. For the Reds on Thursday, Sonny Gray (3-6, 4.26) is on the mound. Gray struggled with rib strain resulting in in a post all-star break ERA of 9.00, however in his last game he threw 6 innings of 1 run ball. Both starters are capable of a decent start. The issues in this game lie elsewhere. The Pirates are one of the lightest hitting teams in the MLB and give up some of the highest totals as well. 10.12: that is the ERA of the Pirates bullpen in their last seven games. The Reds are a good hitting team and have made some recent changes to their pen, but still struggle in relief. I am wagering that in spite of the best efforts of the two starters, the total today will go over |
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08-05-21 | Red Sox v. Tigers OVER 9.5 | 1-8 | Loss | -115 | 1 h 6 m | Show | |
Boston (Perez) vs Detroit (Skubal) Off a loss against the Red Sox yesterday, Detroit turns to Tariq Skubal for better success. Detroit has a decent home record and is 5-5 in their last ten games. Boston won last night, but are only 4 -6 last ten. Is this the start of the swoon that people have long forseen? Martin Perez(7-7, 4.56) starts for the Sox. He is 0-2 in his last three starts, giving up about a run an inning, and has a 7.71 ERA since the all-star break. Skubal has also struggled, is 1-2 (5.40 ERA) since the all-star break, and a victim of allowing too many dingers lately. Both teams can score runs. Boston’s pen has been good and consistent all year long. The Tigers have struggled in relief but have significantly overachieved in their last seven games. This is probably not a stat that can be maintained. With both starters not at peak form, two decent offenses, and the home run ball figuring prominently, I am looking at the total and wagering on the TOTAL to go OVER |
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08-01-21 | Reds v. Mets UNDER 9 | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 3 h 6 m | Show | |
Cincinnati Reds (Gutierrez) vs. NY Mets (Stroman) The Mets, first in their division, must be peering over their collective shoulders. Three games up on the Phillies/Braves, if they fall out of first they likely stand no chance of holding down a wild card spot with their record. Their opponent on Sunday, the Reds, can flex lots of offensive muscle but sport a 29th place bullpen. Both teams made changes at the deadline. The Reds added 3 relievers, the Mets, a starter and Javier Biaz, and now the question is: have they done enough? The Mets came back to win on Saturday night, and turn it over to Marcus Stroman (7-9, 2.63) on Sunday. In his last three starts, he has given up 4 runs in 18 innings pitched, and still had to be satisfied with a 1 and 2 record. His mound opponent is Vladimir Gutierrez (5-3, 4.75). He was beaten by the Mets the last time he faced them. He has had effective starts but seems to throw in the rare poor one, and allows opposing batters a high batting average. We will see if the new additions to the Red’s pen will rescue it, as with a collective ERA of 5.38, it needs improvement. The Mets’ bullpen has been sharp as usual, the positive part of the Mets’ mantra of ‘score few runs, allow fewer..” I am wagering on a total here. Stroman usually goes late into the game, allows few runs, and gets even less support. Gutierrez has his moments. I believe he won’t stink out he joint on Sunday and there are hopes for improvement from the Reds in their late innings relief. Take the total to go UNDER. |
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07-30-21 | A's v. Angels UNDER 8.5 | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
Oakland A’s (Bassit) vs LA Angels (Sandoval) The last time these two teams met, the A’s, at home, took two of two against the Angels, holding them to 1 ER. Since then, the A’s have added two key pieces to help them down the stretch. The Angels can’t decide whether to play or fold, but Thursday’s result may help to clarify as the deadline approaches. With Seattle drawing closer to Oakland this series is critical for the A’s. As for LA, it is pretty clear that they are going nowhere this season. It is Chris Bassit (10-3, 3.46) pitching for Oakland. The A’s are 14-7 with him on the mound. Bassit has given wins and innings this season, although his July ERA (5.40) might raise some eyebrows. Sandoval is on the mound for the Angels. The leftie has a 2.93 ERA in July and has been sharp in his last three starts although his record does not reflect this. In those three games, he has pitched 7 or better innings, giving up seven runs. Oakland has just added another piece to its bullpen, which was already very good. The pen has been razor sharp of late. The Angels‘ relief corp is very much a one trick pony, and has not been impressive in their last 7 games. The A’s have owned the Angels this season and have everything to play for. The Angels? It is probably a low moment for them. I like both starters. Sandoval in particular has been impressive lately. I feel that the Total is the way to go in this game. Take the A’s and Angels to go under! |
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07-27-21 | Astros v. Mariners UNDER 8 | 8-6 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
Astros (McCullers Jr.) vs. Mariners (Flexen) Both teams had won their last three starts before meeting up last night. The Astros face a more difficult opponent today in Chris Flexen. Flexen has been nothing short of remarkable this season. He is 9-4 with an ERA of 3.35. The Mariners are 13- 5 with him pitching. You want more? How about 4-1, 1.60 last seven starts, or 20 innings pitched last three starts, allowing only three runs. McCullers Jr is also having a fine season, but struggled somewhat last outing. He is 4-1 in his last 7 starts and 5-0 in away games this season. The Astros pen has been good of late but have one surprising stat; they are 6-11 in W/L on the road. Mariners’ pen has been lights out of late, good at home, and looking at a similar stat, is 18-5 in win/loss at home for the season. Of note: Astros are a very good road team, but their offense is down slightly lately. Mariners are a good road team, and their offense is up in their last games. I am wagering that this game will go UNDER. 81/2 is a pretty high total for these starters. Both starters are likely to go long, and with strong relief corps at the moment, I see them stymieing the offense. |
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07-26-21 | Braves v. Mets UNDER 6.5 | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
Braves (Muller) vs Mets (Stroman). The Mets took 2 of 3 against the Jays, gaining a little ground between them and the Braves and Phillies. Marcus Stroman (7-8, 2.59) is on the hill for the Mets this afternoon. Stroman pitched an absolute gem last outing, going 8 innings and allowing only 1 hit. He appears to be completely recovered from his hip soreness that bothered him some starts ago. He also had some run support, so just maybe his W/L record will start to reflect his abilities. The pitcher for the Braves is 23 year old Kyle Muller (1-3, ERA of 2.41 as a starter). Muller has bounced around from farm to major leagues with some frequency, but in between travels has amassed some decent stats. His issue appears to be control. He hasn’t allowed many runs, but does run up his pitch count very quickly. The Mets are a light hitting team, the Braves have some oomph. Stroman’s record is solid vs. the Braves. The Mets have never faced Muller. The total reflects that this is the opening game of a double header. I am wagering that the total goes under. Both bullpens have been much better than average of late. Stroman might finish for himself if he pitches like his last game. And just a side note, but Man, was Mets’ closer Diaz impressive against the Jays yesterday. |
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07-25-21 | Blue Jays v. Mets OVER 9 | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 3 h 39 m | Show | |
After losing Friday night, the Jays brought out the big bats on Saturday and even an indifferent outing by their ace Riyu couldn’t stop them from a lopsided win. Rich Hill is on the mound for the Mets. It might be expecting a lot from Hill, who was just traded Saturday, to run it out against the Jays the next day, but being traded is nothing new to Hill. In his long career, he has pitched for 11 different teams. He has had a solid season going 6-4 with a 3.87 ERA. July has been so-so for him after a terrific May. His ERA is 4.97 for the month, and his starts have averaged between 3-5 innings. The Jays are familiar with Hill and have had some success against him. Ross Stripling is pitching for the Jays today. Stripling started the year very poorly, then made some alterations to his delivery and was quite successful mid season. Of late the bad is busting through the good. He was absolutely shelled in the first inning against the Red Sox and for the month he is 0-2 and 10.24. His start length has declined, which is an issue as the Jays’ weakness is still relief. The Mets’ weakness generally hasn’t been in their relievers, but last night Guerrero and Co. knocked them around. The Toronto’s offense really is formidable, and with the addition of Semien and Springer, much more experienced. The Mets are a light hitting team but they may get their chances against Striping and the Jays’ pen. My wager? Take the total to go over. |
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07-20-21 | Suns v. Bucks UNDER 222.5 | Top | 98-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
Phoenix Suns vs. Milwaukee Bucks Talk about a turn-around. It wasn't long ago, Phoenix fans were chanting "Suns in 4." Now, its Milwaukee fans doing the chanting. They were hitting everything last game but we kept hearing Van Gundy say that the teams were still playing good defense. The big final score of game 4 has rewarded us with a large over|under line for this contest. My wager Its all about the defense in this potential close-out game. This is only the 2nd time Phoenix was behind in a series, entering a game, in these playoffs. The 1st was game 4 against the Lakers. The Suns allowed only 92 points in that low-scoring game and they kept the Lakers to less than 40% shooting. I'm going under. |
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07-17-21 | Mariners v. Angels OVER 8.5 | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
Seattle Mariners (Kikuchi) vs. Los Angeles Angels (Cobb) After a stellar outing last night by the Seattle starter, the Angels are out of the pitching frying pan with Flexen, and into the fire with Kikuchi. Perhaps Yusei Kikuchi, who stumbled a little last start, will take his missed All-star participation out on the Angels. He is 6-3, 2.77 ERA in his last 12 starts. Facing him is Alex Cobb. Cobb had a terrific start last outing but his June stats were poor; his ERA was 7.32 over three starts. The Mariners have a good history with Cobb. The Angels have been only fair vs Kikuchi. Last night’s blown lead aside, the Mariners relief core has been effective, however as a team, they do lack the offensive fire-power of the Angels. Ohtani and the Angels’ lineup have been absolutely on fire over the last two weeks. My wager. Seattle burned their two top relievers last night. Kikuchi is only a ‘five or six innings per outing’ starter, which gives the Angels an opportunity to feast on the rest of the pen. Cobb is just one start away from a very poor stretch. Take the total to go OVER. |
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07-10-21 | Pirates v. Mets UNDER 6 | 6-2 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 28 m | Show | |
Pirates(Anderson) vs. Mets (Stroman) The Pirates have returned to their losing ways. After taking two of three vs the Braves, they have now lost two straight. They will look to Ian Anderson in the first game of the double-header to halt this skid before it becomes a habit again. Anderson has pitched much better than his record of 4-8. In his last three games, he has averaged at least 6 innings pitched, and given up 5 earned runs total. As this is only a 7 inning game, this will give the woeful Pirates relievers less time on the firing line. Marcus Stroman has had a rough few games. He had shortened outings due to hip soreness and then went on bereavement leave. His last start was not his best, but, Hallelujah, he finally had some run support from the Mets batters. My wager These are two relatively light hitting teams with two strong starters. In the first game of the double header I am betting on the total to go UNDER. |
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07-09-21 | Yankees v. Astros OVER 9 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -117 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
The Yankees and Astros met three times back in May. Two of those games finished with 10 or more runs. The other finished with nine. Five of the past six meetings have finished with at least nine runs. Odorizzi has a 6.76 ERA in his four starts here. Three finished over the total. Odorizzi averaged only three innings in those games. Cortes won't be around long either. He's made only one start and lasted just three innings. Cortes did happen to face Houston in his lone 2020 start. He managed only one out while allowing 8 runs. In fact, he gave up more HR's than he had outs recorded. Prior to yesterday, NY had gone over in six of seven. My wager? Take the OVER |
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07-07-21 | Blue Jays v. Orioles OVER 10.5 | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
Toronto Blue Jays (Riu) vs Baltimore Orioles (Harvey) Its game two in the’ Battle of the Birds’, and Orioles flew away with the first one. The Jays are fighting to challenge for the lead in the formidable American East and need to win this series against Baltimore. Their offense is healthy and dominant; they know they can’t rely on an injury-riddled and struggling pitching staff. What has come over Hyun Jin Riu? Riu, the master of the slow stuff and team ace, is struggling. His last start (4 runs over 4 innings) was his worst of the season, but his outings have been shorter and less effective than at the start of the season. One could ask the same of Harvey, but for different reasons. Sporting an abysmal ERA of 7.34 and 3/9, he appears to have turned it around in his last few starts. He face the Jays twice in their last series, pitched ten innings over 2 starts and allowed only 7 earned runs. Of note: The Jays have a 5-2 record against Baltimore, and they play better on the road than in whichever park they are calling home. They have in past teed off on Harvey. The wager With probable short outings from the two starters, suspect relief and the Jays’ tough hitting lineup, I am betting on the OVER |
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07-03-21 | Marlins v. Braves UNDER 9 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show | |
Marlins (Alcantara) vs Braves (Muller) The Marlins were in tough last night but lost in a close one, 1-0. With Acuna getting plunked in the first inning, there may be a little extra on the field between these two teams. The Braves have won three straight and in a variety of ways; 20 runs scored against the Mets and last night’s 1-0 shut-out. The game sports an interesting pitching matchup. Sandy Alcantara starts for the Marlins. He was 2-3 in June, with a 1.02 WHIP. He struggled with his control in his last start, but in his four previous outings, gave up only 4 ER and 1 HR. Alcantara can pitch well into his games, averaging 7 innings per start. He will need to on Sunday, as the Marlins have run out 6 relievers in each of their last two games. 23 year old Kyle Muller will pitch his third major league start for the Braves. He is a very tall left-hander with dominating stuff. In his previous 2 starts, he has gone 9 innings total, and allowed 1 ER. Control had been an issue in the minors, and Muller has issued a pair of walks in each of his starts. Both bullpens had a workout last night, and both pitched well. This is not uncharacteristic of Atlanta’s pen and may be a factor on Sunday, considering Muller’s past starts have been only 4 and 5 innings long. The Braves can hit a ton of homeruns, but please note that the total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta’s last 7 games. The wager I am riding the total to go UNDER. |
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07-03-21 | Mets v. Yankees UNDER 8.5 | 8-3 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 34 m | Show | |
Mets (Taijuan Walker) vs Yankees (Jordan Montgomery) The Mets, reeling from a 20 run drubbing in Atlanta and a rare DeGrom loss two nights ago, turn to their other ace to restore a bit of equilibrium. Walker (3-2, 2.58, 1.04/ last 7) was a fine pick-up for the Mets this year. He is dependable for innings pitched and earned runs allowed. The Mets are 11-3 with Walker on the mound. Facing him is Jordan Montgomery who is 2-1 in his last three starts. Montgomery has pitched well against the Mets and has consistently pitching into the 6th inning. Why is this important? Both the Mets and Yankees bullpens have struggled in their last 7 starts. Even Aroldis Chapman was lit up for 4 ER and 3 walks in 1/3 of an inning. The wager The Yankees are slumping, the Mets haven’s scored more than 4 runs in seven games, the Yanks struggle against a lefty. I say, bet on the UNDER. |
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07-02-21 | Brewers v. Pirates OVER 7.5 | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
Brewers (Houser) vs Pirates (Brubaker) Pity the Pirates. Light-hitting defines them. Even at Coors Field, they were shut out 2 of 3 in their last series. The same cannot be said for the Brewers of late. The winners of 9 straight, they have a pair of 14+ runs-scored games in their last 4 starts. Facing the red-hot Brew crew is Pirates’ starter JT Brubaker. He has been 0-3 in June but has had almost no run support (4 Pirates runs in three starts). He is good for 5 or 6 innings, and has been adequate over his last three starts. It is tough to find an upside to the Pirates offense, but they did have some success against Brewers’ starter Adrian Houser last time they met. His effectiveness has slid from some early season success. In his last three starts he has given up 11 ER in 16+ total innings. He has three no-decisions in those three starts. Of note, Milwaukee has gone on to win all three of those games. The Brewers bullpen has been very strong last seven games and are well-rested. The Pirates’ pen has been adequate but ridden hard in their last few games. The wager Considering the Brewers’ offense, the Pirates’ well worked bullpen and Pittsburgh’s modest success against Hauser, I’m betting the total to go OVER |
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07-01-21 | Dodgers v. Nationals UNDER 9.5 | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
LA Dodgers (Gonsolin) vs Nationals Corbin) Winners of their last five games, the Dodgers open a four game road series against the Nationals. LA hasn’t scored a lot of runs of late, but have had excellent starting pitching and lights-out relief. Washington delivered a 15-6 thumping of the Rays on Wednesday, taking both games of a short series. They are a formidable 8-2 /last 10. Tony Gonsolin is pitching for the Dodgers. Since returning from the 60 day DL, Gonsolin has been on a short leash, pitching less than 4 innings per start. While he is 0-0 for the season, he has an ERA of 2.77 and the Dodgers have won all four of his starts. Patrick Corbin is on the hill for the Nationals. Corbin has had a mixed season at 5-6 with a 4.57 ERA. He has had one very good start of his last three, and hasn’t given up more than 3 ER in his last 4 starts. He has struggled with the long ball this season. Neither team has had much experience against the other. Corbin has done well vs the Dodgers. The Nationals have never faced Gonsolin. The wager Bet on the total to go under. |
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06-29-21 | Bucks v. Hawks OVER 219 | Top | 88-110 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: Kawhi Leonard hasn't been playing for a while now, yet the Clippers are still finding ways to win. This is a bit of a different story with Trae Young being injured, as he's the team's leading scorer and he's been in the line-up every game since Day 1. Leonard has had issues for years and all season again. However, whether Young suits up or not, I believe that just like the Clippers last night, the way Atlanta is going to upset the Bucks is to push the pace and score some points. The pick: Milwaukee will be out to do the same. If the Bucks can put up a big enough number in the first half, it could very well be enough to take out the remaining wind from the Hawks in the second. I expect each team to really push the pace in the FIRST HALF. This is a 10* FIRST HALF PLAYOFF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Bucks/Hawks. |
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06-27-21 | Bucks v. Hawks OVER 224 | Top | 113-102 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: The Hawks had to play from behind the entire in Game 1, but they pushed the pace and got some big shots down the stretch, winning the game, and the total flying "over" the number. Game 2 was a completely defensive affair by the Bucks, as the Hawks once again went down early, but this time it appeared as if they resigned themselves to a loss in that one and they were already looking ahead to Game 3 at home. The pick: And that game comes here and now. The Hawks will look to get out and push the pace in this one and to finally not have to play from behind. The Bucks are the highest scoring team in the league and while I do think they'll take a step back on the defensive end here, I expect that this open-paced affair will see them put plenty of points on the board as well. Everything points to a high-scoring contest in Atlanta on Sunday night. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Bucks/Hawks. |
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06-26-21 | Suns v. Clippers OVER 218 | Top | 84-80 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: Game 1 snuck "over" the number. Game 2 fell "under" the number in the Clippers 106-92 victory. I think this back and forth pattern continues as far as the total is concerned, as I expect this one to fly over as it comes down the stretch. Phoenix has to push the pace and get the Clippers playing from behind. The Suns can't afford to sit back and try to beat LA at its own game. The pick: Also note that Phoenix has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last ten in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent in which it was held to 95 points or less in. Expect this faster-paced Game 4 to produce a lot of points on the board. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Suns/Clippers. |
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06-25-21 | Hawks v. Bucks UNDER 226.5 | Top | 91-125 | Win | 100 | 29 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: Game 1 snuck "over" the number, but I expect Game 2 to be more of a defensive affair. Overall, the playoffs have been low-scoring compared to the regular season. The Bucks were the highest scoring team in the league during the regular season. But the Hawks have advanced to this point mainly because of their suprising defensive play. That defense wasn't at it's best in Game 1, but it came up big when it had to at the end of the game. The pick: Milwaukee has seen the total go "under" in eight of its last 11 in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which it allowed 115 or more points in as well. Atlanta comes out aggressive here, and so does Milwaukee. Expect that to translate into a defensive battle in Game 2. This is a 10* TOTAL COACHES CORNER On the UNDER. |
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06-24-21 | Golden Knights v. Canadiens OVER 5 | Top | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 29 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: This series has been dominated by great goaltending and tough defensive play. Las Vegas was favored to win this series by quite a lot, but the high-powered Knights are now on the ropes as they try to figure out this tough Habs' defense. Las Vegas was the No. 1 defensive team in the league this year, but it was also the No. 3 on the offensive end. The pick: Montreal is going to have its hands full here against a Las Vegas team playing with deperation. Montreal has been good offensively throughout the playoffs though and will have extra opportunities on the back end with the Knights' defenders having to constantly join the attack. Game 6 (to me!), just screams over. This is a 10* TOTAL COACHES CORNER on the OVER Knights/Habs. |
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06-23-21 | Lightning v. Islanders UNDER 5 | Top | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 26 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: This has been a back and forth series, but after getting blown out 8-0 in Game 5, I believe that the Islanders are going to double-down on the defensive end in an attempt to stave of elimination. The Isles have seen the total go "under" in eight of their last 11 in trying to revenge a five goals or greater road loss to an opponent as well. The pick: Tampa looked not only great on the offensive end in scoring those eight goals, but it also looked great defensively. Do I expect the Bolts to explode for another eight goals tonight? Of course not, that was an outlier. Do I believe that Tampa's going to play "lock down" defense and get great goaltending again? That's a given. So after the offensive explosion in Game 5, Game 6 sets up as a lower-scoring "under." This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Lightning/Islanders. |
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06-21-21 | Austria v. Ukraine OVER 2 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a big game for both teams. They come into the final match level on points and goal difference. Ukraine holds the tie-breaker though with one extra goal scored over Austria, but for either to advance, they're going to have to win outright today, and not settle for the the push. The pick:Ukraine though has so far been decent offensively, creating 4.52 expected goals (xG) through its first two matches against the Netherlands and North Macedonia. Ukraine's defense though has been shaky, as the Dutch created 2.05 xG vs. them, while North Macedonia even posted a 1.50 xG. Austria has a ton of value in this match and while a draw would likely get it into the next round, I think it'll take advantage of this weak Ukraine defense and just try to keep the momentum rolling, instead of playing super strategically. I expect each team to push for an outright win. This number is low, the play is the over. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER Ukraine/Austria. |
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06-20-21 | A's v. Yankees OVER 9.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 30 m | Show | |
The setup The A’s lost on Saturday for the first time in nine games. Today it is Manaea vs Montgomery on the hill. Montgomery is 3 -1 with an era of 4.20 for the season, but NY has a habit of winning when he is on the mound. Montgomery doesn’t often pitch late into the game. Manaea in his last four games has only given up two earned runs, however Oakland’s bullpen has been so-so of late. Oakland has been scoring runs in bunches while sweeping KC and the Angels, and the total has edged up. Yankees have been beating up on struggling bullpens. The wager With Montgomery on the hill, the A’s potent offense, and Oakland’s bullpen, look for the total to go over. |
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06-19-21 | Lightning v. Islanders OVER 5 | Top | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 29 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: This has been a very defensive series so far, but I think that changes finally here. The Lightning won 2-1 in Game 3, but note that the Isles have seen the total go "over" in eight of their last 12 in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which it was held to one or less goals in. The pick: These teams have two of the best goaltenders between the pipes, but the overall situation points to more of a wide-open affair. I expect the Islanders to go on the attack early and to push the pace from the opening face-off, until the final horn. As a result, look for this total to fly "over" the posted number sooner, rather than later. This is a 10* SEMI-FINALS TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Lightning/Islanders. |
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06-17-21 | Nets v. Bucks OVER 219.5 | Top | 89-104 | Loss | -111 | 30 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: Kevin Durant is playing like a man possessed right now and with James Harden on the mend, the Nets will look to take advantage a shaky Bucks team that will be focussed on pushing the pace itself. THe Nets have played fantastic defense to this point, but fatigue plays a factor here in my opinion finally. The pick: And it won't be these talented offenses that suffer, it'll be their defensive play. These guys can run and gun all day, but when they get tired, it's their defensive play that goes down the tubes. With Giannis desperate to avoid defeat, look for this faster-paced affair to go "over" the number sooner, rather than later. This is a 10* TOTAL COACHES CORNER on the OVER Nets/Bucks. |
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06-17-21 | Lightning v. Islanders UNDER 5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 118 | 30 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: Game 1 went "under." Game 2 went "over." I think Game 3 follows suit here and will fall "under" once the final horn sounds. New York isn't going to win this series by turning this into a "track meet" with the Lightning. Instead, they'll have to grind out victories and wait for the Bolts to make the first mistake. The pick: These are two of the best defensive clubs in the NHL, and this decisive Game 3 has all the makings of a lower-scoring affair. Finally, take note that the Isles have seen the total go "under" in eight of their last 11 in trying to revenge a two goals or greater road loss to an opponent. This number is high. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Lightning/Islanders. |
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06-16-21 | Hawks v. 76ers OVER 223.5 | Top | 109-106 | Loss | -102 | 27 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: This series has been interesting. Atlanta has clearly played extremely well ever since it hired Nate McMillan as coach. This has been a back and forth series. Game 1 went "over," Game 2 went "under," Game 3 went "over" and Game 4 went "under." This pattern is now set to continue in this all-important Game 5 in my opinion. The pick: And that's based upon this strong trend that's emerged, but also because of a couple strong O/U ATS trends each team has exhibited in this position, as ATL has seen the total go "over" in eight of its last 11 after holding its previous opponent to 100 points or less in a SU/ATS victory in its last outing, while Philly has seen the total fly "over" in 14 of its last 21 in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent in which it was held to 100 points or less in. This number is low. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Hawks/76ers. |
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06-15-21 | Portugal v. Hungary OVER 2.5 | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 22 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: Portugal is out to defend its title with an opening clash against Hungary in Budapest. Portugal will be determined to get out to a quick start here considering the competition in Group F, and because of that, I'm expecting a higher-scoring affair here. The pick: Both teams desperately need a victory here in this opening game Portugal has to face Germany after this, followed by France. It's now or never for Portugal. But an upset here for Hungary would clearly be monumental as well. I say these teams push the pace and this one flies over sooner, rather than later. This is a 10* EURO-CUP TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Hungary/Portugal. |
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06-14-21 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox UNDER 10 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: I think off of yesterday's 18-4 Jays victory, that Monday's series four-game series finale sets up as much more of a "duel." Toronto hands the ball to Alek Manoah (1-0, 3.14 ERA), who bounced back from a bad outing to allow two runs over five innings while striking out four in a no-decision vs. the White Sox last time out. He so far has a decent 16/7 K/BB over 14.1 innings of work. The pick: Clearly, Boston's bullpen can't be happy with yesterday's result. This pick is based mostly upon the steady play of Boston starter Nathan Eovaldi (7-3, 4.11), who gave up five runs over six innings in a loss to Houston in his last outing. It was only the third home run he's given up all season though, and note that he's been at his best in all "night" games with a 3-1, 2.99 ERA record. Finally, note that Boston has seen the total go "under" in eight of its last ten after a ten runs or greater home loss in its last outing. This number is high, the play is the under. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Jays/Red Sox. |
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06-11-21 | 76ers v. Hawks OVER 224.5 | Top | 127-111 | Win | 101 | 29 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: This has been an interesting series so far. Atlanta is an interesting "X Factor" that's come out of no where to be extremely competitive. Atlanta won Game 1 after jumping out to an early lead and then maintaining that pace throughout. I expect a similar game-plan here, as Philly will try to do everything it can to contol the pace and run its offense through its big man Joel Embiid. The pick: However, the shift in venue favors a faster-pace in Game 3, one which I absolutely believe will be dictated by the home side. One last thing from a trend based stand-point, note that ATL has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge a ten points or greater road loss to an opponent. This number is a little low. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER 76ers/Hawks. |
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06-10-21 | Avalanche v. Golden Knights UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -118 | 30 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: I expect Las Vegas to double down on the defensive end in an attempt to end this series here and now. The Knights stumbled in Game 1, losing 7-1, and while the lost Game 2 in OT, they've still been the much better team in this series from the get-go. Las Vegas is the No. 1 defensive team in the league, and I expect it to put on a classic clinic in front of the home town crowd here. The pick: Colorado is on the ropes and I think that it's fatigued majorily. Look for this one to fall well "under" once the final horn sounds. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Avs/Knights. |
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06-06-21 | Avalanche v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 109 | 29 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: I expect an all out offensive war between these two evenly matched clubs. The Avs jumped all over the Knights in the first game of this series and won by a score of 7-1, but since then it's been a very competitive series. The last two games have fallen under th enumber, but I expect a wide-open affair here finally in Game 4. The pick: The Avs have to be careful here to not have a letdown. They'd won six in a row and looked well on their way to winning a seventh and now they'll have to match that intensity from this now confident Knights team. Everything points to a high-scoring offensive affair today. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Avs/Knights. |
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06-05-21 | Mets v. Padres OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: This can still be a pitchers duel and go "over" this tiny number, and that's exactly what I'm expecting here. It's impossible to say anything negative about either Jacob deGrom of the Mets or Joe Musgrove of the Padres. Each has been damn near perfect. Regression is likely to come, but not anything terrible. All of that said, this play is based entirely on some very strong O/U trends that each team has exhibited in this spot. The pick: As note that the Mets have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 11 in trying to revenge a shutout road loss to an opponent, while San Diego has seen the total go "over" in seven of its last ten after shutting out its opponent in its previous outing while scoring two or less runs in the process. Look for this one to sneak over in the latter frames. This is a 10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the OVER Mets/Padres. |
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06-04-21 | Avalanche v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -101 | 28 h 60 m | Show |
The set-up: Colorado won Game 1 by a score of 7-1, and then it managed a 3-2 OT victory in Game 2. The Knights aren't going to be able to sit back and hope that Colorado makes the first mistake in Game 3, because the Avs are much too disciplined. Also, they have a two-game lead. Instead, Las Vegas will be forced to push the pace of this contes from start to finish. The pick: And it's interesting to note that the Knights have seen the total go OVER the number in seven of their last ten in trying to revenge an OT road loss against an opponent. I think we'll see a similar final combined score as what we saw in Game 1. This is a 10* TOTAL COACHES CORNER on the OVER Avs/Knights. |
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06-04-21 | Clippers v. Mavs UNDER 216.5 | Top | 104-97 | Win | 100 | 27 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: If the Clippers are going to have any chance at pushing this to a Game 7, in my estimation they have to shut down Luka Doncic and the Mavericks perimeter game. LA is filled with some tough defenders and I believe Kawhi Leonard and company will be up to the task. Dallas has been playing well defensively as well so far in this series, and that trend is going to continue here as well as the Mavs desperately try to end this series tonight. All signs from a situational angle point to a defensive affair. The pick: LA has interestingly seen the total go "under" the number in seven of its last ten in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent. I'm not sure if the Clippers can in fact win this game or not, but everything points to a similar final combined score as what we saw in Game 5 in my opinion. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Clippers/Mavericks. |
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06-03-21 | Hurricanes v. Lightning OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: The first two games of this series have fallen under the number, but everything points to more of a wide-open affair here in Game 3 in my opinion. Carolina has its back against the wall here. Another loss would be just too devastating. The Hurricanes will look to push the pace from the outset, as they try and break down this unusually stout Lightning defense. The pick: Note that Carolina has seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge back-to-back losses to an opponent. The Lightning's strength has been their ability to play any style of game, so an up-tempo contest is just what the doctor ordered for them in Game 3 as well. Everything points to this one blasting past sooner, rather than later. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER Hurricanes/Bolts. |
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06-02-21 | Marlins v. Blue Jays UNDER 8 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
The setup: If you aren’t yet on the Manoah bandwagon, check this game out. After a brief stint in Minors, Manoah forced his way into the Jays’ beleaguered rotation with three strong starts in Triple A. His first major league game was versus the Yankees in Yankee stadium. Nerves? Not a chance. Nervy, more likely. Manoah delivered 6 innings, 2 hits, 0 runs and 7 strikeouts, and baffled the Yanks from start to finish. Pitching for the Marlins is Pedro Lopez, no slouch either. An unlucky 1- 3 this season, with an ERA of 2.71, Lopez in his last three starts has delivered 19 innings, 4 earned runs, 3 walks, and 16 strikeouts. The Marlins’ bullpen is much improved over last year, and the total has gone under 3 of the last 4 of Marlins games. The pick: The Jays have never faced Lopez, and while they have the potential of formidable offense in 2021, they are still a very young team. They have a tendency to struggle the first time against an unfamiliar pitcher. This total is indeed high in my opinion. This is a 10* IL TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the UNDER Marlins/Jays. |
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06-01-21 | Lightning v. Hurricanes OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: It was a tight defensive affair in Game 1, but with their backs against the wall and looking to avoid the 0-2 hole, I believe the Hurricanes will push the pace in Game 2, and ultimatley this will result in this total eclipsing the posted number. Two great teams. On both ends of the ice. Game 1 was competitive, and I believe Game 2 will be as well. The pick: But as mentioned, I expect a lot more pucks to find the back of the net. Note that Carolina has seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which it was held to one or less goals in. A faster pace = more shots and more shots = more goals. This is a 10* TOTAL COACHES CORNER on the OVER Lightning/Hurricanes. |
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05-31-21 | Islanders v. Bruins UNDER 5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: Game 1 had the potential to "under" the number, but the Bruins scored three unanswered goals late in the third period for the big 5-2 victory. The Islanders are the No. 2 defense in the league still though and if they want to steak a game here in Boston and secure a "split," they're going to have to get back on track and dicate the tempo of tonight's contest. The pick: The Bruins were terrible over the first half of the season, but they've been the best team in the league over the second. Boston is equally adept on both ends of the ice and can play any style of game. One thing to note here though is that New York has seen the total go "under" in eight of its last 11 in trying to revenge a three-goals or greater road loss against an opponent. All signs point to the under as the correct call in Game 2. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Islanders/Bruins. |
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05-31-21 | Phillies v. Reds OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-11 | Win | 100 | 5 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: Both of these starting pitchers has been decent this year, but I believe these hungry line-ups will garner the most headlines in tomorrow's summaries. The visitors go with Vince Velasquez (2-0, 2.95 ERA) who went six shutout innings against the Marlins on Tuesday. It was easily his best start of the year. After a couple of shaky campaigns, Velasquez looks to finally have found his groove again. Hard to say anything negative about him at this point, I just think he's in the wrong place at the wrong time essentially. The pick: Wade Miley (4-4, 3.50) gets the nod for the home side and he returns from a short stint on the IL with a sprained foot. He'll be on a bit of leash here in this outing. Also note that he's 0-2 with a 4.91 ERA in all "day games" this season. This one has "over" written all over it. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Phillies/Reds. |
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05-30-21 | Lightning v. Hurricanes OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -116 | 25 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: I'm expecting a high-scoring shootout between these two rivals. These teams were led by their offenses this year. Tampa got uneven defensive play, but fantastic offensive play in its opening series victory. Expect this trend to continue. The pick: Also note that it sets up well from a trend-based stand-point, as the Bolts have seen the total go OVER in eight of their last 11 when playing with three or more days of rest. This is a 10* TOTAL COACHES CORNER on the OVER Bolts/Canes. |
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05-27-21 | Suns v. Lakers OVER 210 | Top | 95-109 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: The first two games of this series have fallen "under" the number, but I look for the shift in venue to lead to a more high-scoring contest in Game 3. Yes, the Lakers are one of the best defensive clubs in the league, but note that Phoenix has seen the total go "over" in eight of its last 11 in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent in which it was held to 105 or less points in. The pick: The Suns improved dramatically on the defensive end this year, but the Lakers can now smell the blood in the water after their Game 2 wind and I look for them to kick it up a notch on the offensive end now. Note as well that the Suns have seen the total go "over" the number in seven of their last eight following an ATS loss. This number is low. This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the OVER Suns/Lakers. |
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05-25-21 | Maple Leafs v. Canadiens OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: Two of the first three game shave gone "under" the number, but I expect a more wide-open affair in Game 4. The Leafs have one of the best offenses in the league and while the Canadiens have been stout defensively so far in this series, the Habs are going to have to go on the attack here now after dropping back-to-back games. Note that they've seen the total go "over" in eight of their last ten in trying to revenge two-straight losses against an opponent. The pick: With the home side pushing the pace of this one, expect this total to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Leafs/Habs. |
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05-24-21 | Rays v. Blue Jays UNDER 10.5 | Top | 14-8 | Loss | -101 | 3 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: Two of three games in this four-game series have gone "over" the number, but I think this afernoon's get-a-way total is just a little too high now. Two starting pitchers who will be hungry to get their season's back on track go head-to-head here. The visitors go with Ryan Yarbrough (2-3, 4.24 ERA) who gave up six runs (three earned) over six innings in a no-decision to the Orioles on Wednesday. Note that Yabrough has been much better on the road (2-1, 3.93) than at home this year (0-2, 4.71). The pick: Ross Stripling is 0-3 with a 7.20 ERA. Clearly, he's struggled, but note that Toronto has seen the total go "under" in eight of its last 11 in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which it conceded six or more runs in. Look for this one to sneak "under." This is a 10* TOTAL COACHES CORNER on the UNDER Rays/Jays. |
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05-23-21 | Avalanche v. Blues UNDER 5.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: Colorado has completely controlled the Blues offense through the first two games, and nothing is going to change here either. The Blues on the other hand are on the brink, and they'll be risking life and limb getting into shooting and passing lanes trying to avoid the sweep. Situationally, this one sets up beautifully as a lower-scoring affair. The pick: But also note that St. Louis has seen the total go "under" in eight of its last 12 after three or more straight losses in a row. This number is high for sure in my opinion considering all of the above listed information. This is a 10* TOTAL COACHES CORNER on the UNDER Avs/Blues. |
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05-22-21 | Canadiens v. Maple Leafs OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 109 | 26 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: We've seen a few shocking results so far in the NHL playoffs, and the Canadiens posting a low-scoring 2-1 win in Game 1 of their playoff matchup vs. the Leafs is certainly one of them. Toronto will now look to avenge that terrible effort, and to do that I expect a much more wide-open affair here. Note that Toronto has seen the total go "over" in eight of its last 11 in trying to revenge a home loss vs. an opponent in which it was held to one or less goals in. The pick: Montreal won't be rolling over. The Habs will have to match pace with the home side here, expect that to tranlsate into offensive production the ice. Everything points to this one flying "over" sooner, rather than later. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Canadiens/Leafs. |
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05-20-21 | Pacers v. Wizards UNDER 238 | Top | 115-142 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: The Pacers are coming off a big 144-117 win over Charlotte at home, but I think they'll struggle to duplicate that offensive performance twice in a row. Especially on the road vs. a Wizards team which just loves to get out and push the pace whenver possible. The Wizards took all three games over the Pacers in the regular season, and all three games went OVER the number. I don't predict that to happen a fourth time here though, as Indiana comes to town banged up, with injuries to several key players. The pick: The last thing the Pacers can do here is try to turn this into a "track meet" and hang with the high-flying Wizards, who come in off a 118-100 loss in Boston. With Indiana looking to play "lock down" defense throughout, I say we get an uneven overall pace/flow to this contest and I expect that to ultimately help in driving this total well UNDER this sky-high number. This is a 10* TOTAL COACHS CORNER on the UNDER Pacer/Wizards. |
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05-19-21 | Spurs v. Grizzlies UNDER 222.5 | Top | 96-100 | Win | 103 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: Sorry, I'm travelling today, so don't have the time for my usual in-depth analysis. The pick: San Antonio's defense wasn't great down the stretch, but note that it's seen the total go "under" in eight of its last 11 in a "double revenge" scenario (went 2-1 in the reg. season series, losing final two), while Memphis has seen the total dip "under" in ten of its last 14 home games when the total is between 225 and 221 1/2. THis number is a little high. This is a 10* TOTAL COACHS CORNER in the UNDER Spurs/Grizzlies. |
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05-18-21 | Lightning v. Panthers UNDER 6 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 27 h 60 m | Show |
The set-up: The Lightning won the first game 5-4, but I expect a much tighter, and lower-scoring affair in Game 2. Florida has seen the total go "under" in eight of its last 11 in trying to revenge a home loss vs. an opponent in which it allowed five or more goals in. The pick: Tampa had to play from behind the whole night in Game 1, but I expect a much different dynamic here in Game 2. Both teams are among the best on both ends of the ice, but also note that Tampa has seen the total go "under" in five of its last six after scoring five or more goals in a one goal victory in its previous outing. This number is high. This is a 10* TOTAL COACHS CORNER on the UNDER Bolts/Panthers. |
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05-16-21 | Cardinals v. Padres UNDER 7 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: The first two games of this series have flown "over" the number, but a couple of red hot starters collide in the third game, and I expect runs to be at a premium. Kwang Hyun Kim (1-0, 2.74 ERA) gae up one run and struck out six over six innings in unfortunate no-decision to the Brewers in his last outing. Over 20 innings of work he's allowed just four runs. The pick: Ryan Weathers (2-1, 0.81) has been superb whenever the Padres have needed him. Dinelson Lamet is set to come in if Weathers falters as well. Finally, note that the Padres have seen the total go "under" the number in seven of their last nine after playing to back-to-back "unders" at home. This number is high. This is a 10* TOTAL COACHS CORNER on the UNDER Cardinals/Padres. |
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05-15-21 | Hornets v. Knicks OVER 212 | Top | 109-118 | Win | 100 | 6 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a huge game for both teams. Charlotte has two games left and it'll need to win out to maintain its eighth spot in the East. Charlotte certainly will be motivated here as well as it's now dropped three in a row. They also play with revenge here after a double-digit loss to the Knicks in early April. Don't expect Charlotte to sit back and wiat for the Knicks to something, instead look for the Hornets to push the pace from start to finish. The pick: New York has secured a playoff spot, but it's not in great form either right now. The Knicks are known for their tough defensive play, but note that they've seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 11 home games as a favorite in the -1.5 to -7.5 points range. The circumstances point to the "over" as the sharp wager here. This is a 10* TOTAL COACHS CORNER on the OVER Hornets/Knicks. |
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05-14-21 | Phillies v. Blue Jays OVER 10 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: Two interleague teams here hungry for a win collide and I expect this one to soar "over" the number sooner, rather than later. Vince Velasquez (1-0, 4.18 ERA) and Steven Matz (5-2, 4.86) have both been solid this season, and each is coming off a decent outing. Neither has been perfect, but each has been strong. That said, I think they're in the wrong place at the wrong time today. The Phillies average 4.13 RPG, and their bullpen is just atrocious. Off a 5-1 loss in the nation's capital, look for the Phillies to bounce back here. The pick: The Jays are 20-16 and four games above .500 for the first time this year. While Matz does come in off the decent outing in his last start, note that he's just 2-5 with a 6.10 ERA in 12 career games vs. the Phillies. This one has over written all over it. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Phillies/Jays. |
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