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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-31-23 | Twins v. Astros UNDER 8 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
A pair of strong young right handers face off in Houston tonight. The Astros' Brown has been sharp lately, allowing just 3 runs over 13 innings in his last two appearances. Varland has also been effective for the Twins, giving up 3 or less runs in his last three starts. The two teams are similar on paper; first and second in runs-allowed this season, and both with middling offenses. Houston, now 7-3, definitely has the hotter hand lately. The Twins are sub-.500 on the road, have struggled in and against Houston, and are having difficulty producing runs lately, scoring three or less in six of nine games. Both teams have very good relief pitching, and both starting pitchers have seen the total go under consistently in recent games. With Houston a heavy favorite, the total is the best wager today. Take the Twins and Astros to go under. |
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05-29-23 | Heat v. Celtics OVER 203 | Top | 103-84 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
No doubt that the Under will be a “popular” play tonight in Game 7 between the Heat and Celtics. That’s atypical as the public usually prefers to bet the Over. But history can be difficult to ignore, especially when Unders are on a 37-24 (61%) run in Game 7’s including 11-1 L12 when excluding the 2020 “bubble.” But I will go against the grain and take the Over here. We’ve seen a massive adjustment in the number from Game 5 when the O/U line closed at 214.5. Each of the last two games in the series saw a combined 207 total points scored. That would now be enough to cash an Over ticket. None of the games in this series have seen fewer than 207 total points scored. Neither team shot all that well in Game 6 and we still got to 207. The Celtics shot just 20% from three-point range (7 of 35). The Heat were an abysmal 19 of 63 (31%) from inside the arc. I believe we’ll see better shooting in both regards here in Game 7. Even with the last three games in this series all going Under, Boston is 11-5 to the Over in its last 16 games and Miami is 16-6 to the Over in its last 22 games (including 10-2 on the road). 10* |
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05-28-23 | Reds v. Cubs OVER 8 | Top | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
The Reds are a very poor road team but they've still managed to take the first two games of the series from the hapless Cubs. They have feasted on Cubs pitching and also put up a ten spot vs the Cardinals, putting them near the top in offense over the last week. Reds' starter Ashcraft started the season on fire, but has gone very very cold lately, with an ERA of 10.03 in May. Cubs' left-handed veteran Smyly has been pretty sharp this year, winning three game in May, with a 2.63 ERA for the month. The problems will come once Smyly leaves, as everyone seems to be teeing off on the Cubs' relievers. The Reds have had great success vs left-handed pitching lately. |
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05-27-23 | Stars v. Golden Knights UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
The Stars and Oettinger bounced back with an overtime win in Game four. I really thought that the young Stars goalie was down for the count, but he survived nearly 40 shots with by far his best game of the series. Hill was again steady in net for Vegas as he has been all series long. Dallas will be again in must win mode but at least they have now had a taste of success, however the Knights have been very good at making the necessary adjustments after a loss. With 2/3s of the Stars second line out and with the final change tonight, Vegas can key on the Stars top line which accounted for all of the Dallas scoring in Game four. This series was always expected to be a low scoring one, and in spite of some subpar goal tending by Oettinger, the last three games have gone under. Look for another tight checking, low scoring affair tonight, and take the total to go under. |
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05-26-23 | Pirates v. Mariners UNDER 7 | Top | 11-6 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 14 m | Show |
Two young future star right handers face off when Keller meets Kirby on Friday. Keller has been exceptional lately. His K to BB ratio is an amazing 18-1, with a very low WHIP to go with it. Mariners' Kirby has impressed as well, pitching late into games with a low ERA in May. Neither the Pirates nor the Mariners are hitting especially well in general, nor are they getting much recent success vs right handed pitching. The M's have a very good bullpen; the Pirates should get plenty of innings out of Keller. Take this game to go under the total. |
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05-26-23 | Wings v. Storm UNDER 163 | Top | 95-91 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
We’ve got a high total tonight in this WNBA matchup between Dallas and Seattle. Well, maybe it’s not that high considering the O/U line for these teams' respective season openers closed at 161.5 and 165.5. But the key is Seattle gave up 105 in a horrific 41-point loss to Las Vegas. They let the Aces shoot 55% for the game. I think the value is squarely on the Under for tonight’s game. Though it was “just one game,” the Storm certainly will be cognizant of being better at the defensive end. Las Vegas hit 11 of 18 three-point attempts in that game, an absurd percentage (61.1%). No way Dallas is doing that tonight. In fact, these two teams combined to go just 15 of 41 from three in their first games. Take the Under. 10* |
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05-25-23 | Heat v. Celtics UNDER 215.5 | Top | 97-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
All of a sudden, we’ve got a series here in the Eastern Conference Finals as Boston staved off elimination on Tuesday, winning Game 4 116-99 as 1.5-point underdogs. I cashed the Under in that game; albeit barely as we needed the Heat to NOT take a shot on the final possession (which thankfully they didn’t). Of course, there was no guaranteeing a Miami shot would have gone in right before the horn as they shot just 43% overall in Game 4 and 25% from three. Even with the series returning to Boston, I don’t see the Celtics matching their Game 4 shooting (51% overall, 40% from three). Other than Jimmy Butler, who had 29 points and 9 rebounds Tuesday, the Heat don’t have a ton of reliable scoring options. Gabe Vincent rolled his ankle pretty badly in the last game and Kyle Lowry may be banged up as well. Miami is giving up just 108.4 points/game in these playoffs while Boston is allowing just 109.9. I don’t see both teams having good offensive nights here. 10* |
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05-24-23 | Hurricanes v. Panthers UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -120 | 17 h 17 m | Show |
The top and second top forechecking teams in the NHL (by advanced metrics) are masterful at getting in on the puck. But it turns out they are also great at limiting in zone high danger chances. Their skill at forechecking includes an ability to clog up the neutral zone and stifle rush chances. Both teams still manage to keep things exciting with checkers and puck carriers selling out and sacrificing themselves all over the ice. When you combine this with unbelievable goaltending it is a sure recipe for low scoring affairs. The losing goaltender in this series, Andersen has save percentages of .941 and .950. That is phenomenal. But Bobrovsky has been otherworldly with 1.0, .974 and.969 save percentages. It’s no surprise that the Canes under record is 4-0 in their last 4 and the Panthers is 8-0 in their last 8. Both teams have averaged totals of 5.4 (Carolina) and 5.2(Florida) GF +GA in their last 10 games. When you have no high scoring stars on either side it’s no wonder that the under is a must call on this one. Take the under and enjoy this hard fought hockey to the max. |
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05-23-23 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 216.5 | Top | 116-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
I think we’re due for an Under in this series as Miami can’t possibly match their shooting from the last game as they went 19 of 35 from three (54.5%) and shot 56.8% overall from the field. All three of these ECF games have now gone Over the total, two of them by wide margins, but it looks like Game 4 will have the highest closing O/U line of the series. I don’t think that’s warranted. Boston’s season is on the line, so I don’t expect an up-tempo game. The Celtics are also really struggling from three, especially the last two games where they’re down around 27%. For the entire playoffs, the Heat are allowing just 107.9 points/game. They were also one of the top defensive teams in the regular season. I’m on the Under in Game 4. 10* |
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05-23-23 | Golden Knights v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
The Stars have not been getting the goal-tending required for playoff success in Round three. In spite of Oettinger's track record, and the Knights being limited to just 24 shots in Game two, Dallas came up in the wrong side of overtime again. Golden Knights' net minder Adin Hill has looked very sharp in his last four starts. This is obviously a must-win situation for the Stars. Vegas has been a tighter close checking team when playing on the road all season. I think Dallas will respond with even more defensive pressure, while an obviously weary Oettinger will look to rebound from some poor outings. Game three will be another close one, with an equally low total. Take the Under on Tuesday |
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05-22-23 | Nuggets v. Lakers UNDER 225 | Top | 113-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
Well, it appears as if we all might as well start preparing to handicap a Denver-Miami NBA Finals as both teams hold 3-0 series leads in the respective Conference Finals and no team in league history has ever blown such an advantage. As for whether or not the Nuggets make it a 4-0 sweep over the Lakers tonight, I do not know. I do know that I don’t want to lay points with the home team, who is clearly the inferior squad in this matchup. But I’m also not convinced that the Nuggets will be able to match their shooting from Sunday where they made 50% of their total FG attempts including 41% from three. Jamal Murray was absolutely unconscious in Game 3, making 11 of his first 13 shots on the way to a third straight 30+ point game in the series. On the road, Denver typically is not as good as they are at home. Game 3 marked just the second time this postseason that the Lakers allowed more than 101 points at home. The problem for LA is that I just don’t see where an increase in scoring comes from for them. They are already getting as much as you can ask for out of Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura. Anthony Davis had 28 points and 18 rebounds in Game 3, but rarely produces back to back stellar efforts. LeBron James continues to be miserable from three. Take the Under. 10* |
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05-21-23 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 214 | Top | 102-128 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
The Miami Heat continue to shock and amaze as they have a commanding 2-0 series lead after winning both games in Boston. I wouldn’t necessarily rule the Celtics out just yet, but I also don’t want to bet them as road favorites in Game 3 Sunday. So let’s look at the total. The first two games went Over, the first one easily (239 points) and the second barely (216). I think we’re in store for the lowest scoring game of the series as the scene shifts to South Beach. Something that should frighten Celtics’ fans is that their team shot well in the first two games (basically 50%) and still went 0-2. I don’t see them shooting as well on the road. The C’s were actually 27 of 44 on 2PA in Game 2 (61%). No way they are repeating that. The last four times Boston has visited Miami, the Under has cashed every time. For Miami, it remains to been seen whether or not Jimmy Butler can keep this ridiculous run going. The Heat don’t have a ton of reliable scoring options besides Butler. The Celtics did hold the 76ers under 90 points three different times in the last round. 10* |
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05-21-23 | Stars v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
There are no Bobrovskys in this series. Oettinger was expected to excel but for what ever reason (fatigue?) he has been little better than average in the playoffs. Adin Hill was the better goalie in game one. We have seen a surprising number of high totals from these two teams in the playoffs; 7-1 in the Stars' case, and three straight from Vegas. The odds-makers keep setting the number at 5.5 but without superlative goal-tending, that number seems low. It has been a rare game in the playoffs that the Knights haven't scored 4 or more goals. The Stars have also averaged roughly four goals a game over their last 1o games. I am jumping on that low number in Game two. Take Vegas and the Stars to go over the total. |
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05-20-23 | Panthers v. Hurricanes OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -113 | 20 h 8 m | Show |
There has to be a regression to the mean in Bobrovsky’s goaltending. His .943 save% in his last 6 games is off the charts and way above his seasonal and career numbers. After an almost 7 period game, this is the time for it to come back down to earth. The Canes are 3rd in average shots per game while the Panthers are 22nd in average shots against. Bobrovsky is due for a melt down. The Panthers’ PK is at 61%. The Canes PP hasn’t been great but this will be Teravinen’s second game back so he should help their PP and offense in general more than last game. |
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05-17-23 | Heat v. Celtics UNDER 211 | Top | 123-116 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
I had the Over in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals last night and there was certainly no shortage of scoring there. But for tonight’s Game 1 of the East Conference Finals (between Miami and Boston), I’m anticipating a much different kind of game. Now it was mostly Overs for both of these teams in the first round of the playoffs. But then the scoring really started to slow down in the respective second round matchups. The Heat-Knicks series was really played at a “snail’s pace” and never saw more than 216 total points scored in any game. Four of the six games finished at 210 or less with the close-out game being the “low-water mark” at 188. The Celtics really put the clamps down on the Sixers over the final two games of that series, holding them to 86 and 88 points. In three of Boston’s four second round wins, they allowed less than 90 points! I can’t see the Celtics shooting as well as they did when I cashed them in Game 7 vs. Philadelphia. Jayson Tatum scored a record 51 points and, as a team, the Celtics shot 45% from three. The Under is 27-13 the last three seasons when Boston is playing on exactly two days’ rest. Their last five games have averaged only 209.2 points. The last five Heat games have averaged just 204.0 points. Take the Under. 10* |
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05-16-23 | Lakers v. Nuggets OVER 222.5 | Top | 126-132 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
I like the Over in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. The Over is 8-2-1 this season when either of these teams are on three or more days rest. The Lakers last played on Friday while the Nuggets finished off the Suns back on Thursday. The Over is also now 29-17 in Lakers’ road games. That includes 3-0 in the Warriors’ series. Denver, who comes in averaging 118.7 points/game at home, is going to look to push the pace. They are also shooting better than 50% in all games FOR THE YEAR! The Lakers are also going to push pace. In fact they play at the fastest pace of any of the four remaining teams. They spend roughly 1/5 of their time in transition. Granted, it was the regular season and the games were back in December and January. But the last two times these teams played, the O/U closed at 238 and 237. There’s clear value on the Over here. 10* |
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05-16-23 | Braves v. Rangers OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
The Braves and Rangers went Over the total on Monday with the former doing ALL of the lifting, scoring 12 runs in a complete beatdown of the AL West leaders. Today, I’m looking at another Over, only this time the number of runs scored should be a bit more evenly distributed. The Braves are 16-6 on the road where they average 5.8 runs per game. They’ll face Dane Dunning, who has been better than expected so far (filling in for the injured Jacob deGrom) and a Rangers’ bullpen that they beat up on as well yesterday. It was five 2-run homers for Atlanta in the series opener. For the Braves’ sake, they better hope they are swinging the bats well again. Because starter Jared Shuster has given up four runs each of his first two starts and neither time he made it a full five innings. Texas is the highest scoring team in baseball, averaging 6.2 runs per game. 10* |
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05-15-23 | Royals v. Padres UNDER 9.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 21 h 50 m | Show |
It is hard to believe, but the Mighty Padres have gone under in 10 straight games. The Royals are 6-3 below par in their last nine. Th Padres just plain can't hit right-handers and they face a competent one in Keller on Monday. He has sandwiched a pair of fine outings around a dog of a start vs the A's. (It is peculiar and frustrating how many times a good pitcher will struggle against such a poor team as the A's). Keller is wild, but the Padres are hardly the most patient of teams. The Padres will run out Wacha who is looking more and more like the pitcher of last year, with three straight quality appearances. The Padres' pen has been very good and the Royals surprisingly competent lately. Take Monday's game to go under the total. |
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05-15-23 | Seattle Kraken v. Stars OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -118 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
The Kraken have been a much tougher nut to crack in the playoffs than anyone expected. The Stars came in as favored, but the series has see-sawed wildly in wins. The only consistent factor is the over, and I expect another one today. Goal tending and the Kraken offense have been the keys in Series two. The Settle goal tending was always suspect, and Grubauer, after a terrific first series, has reverted to an .865 save % against the Stars. Oettinger who was expected to excel in the postseason, has been pulled twice and has exactly the same .865 save % as Grubauer. The high totals are perhaps not so surprising as these were the 5th and 7th ranked offenses, however the Stars' inability to control Seattle with one of the league's elite defenses is an eye-opener. I am not going to second guess this one. Take game seven to again go over. |
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05-14-23 | Golden Knights v. Oilers UNDER 6.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
My run on totals is up to 13-3. This is your chance to jump on board. Skinner, tonight’s likely Oilers goalie, has alternated good with abysmal starts. This is his turn for a good one. He has had save %s of .962 and .968 for his great starts. We won’t talk about his bad starts. Nurse will return from his suspension which should solidify the Oilers' back end. Aidan Hill has had a .926 save % in his last 10 starts. Pietrangelo and Kolesar have got their owlies out, so that should limit the power play chances for the Oilers. The Knights have managed to limit the damage from Edmonton’s top scoring duo in most recent action. That combined with the fact that Vegas plays a different kind of lockdown game on the road should combine with all of the above to create a low event game for game 6. Three of the last 4 games of this series have been under. In the last 8 meetings between these clubs, the under is 6-1-1. Join me for another fine total selection. We should see a tense, much tighter, more defensive tonight, especially from the last chance Oilers.The Under is the call for tonight’s game. |
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05-13-23 | Stars v. Seattle Kraken OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 18 h 30 m | Show |
My run on totals in the NHL playoffs is up to 12-3. I couldn’t believe my good fortune when I saw an over of 5.5 (-120) for Saturday. I couldn’t write this pick quickly enough. Dallas, in their last 10 games has averaged a total of 7 goals a game. Seattle isn’t far behind at 6.8. As a favorite Dallas’ games have averaged a total of 6.4 goals per game. As a dog Seattle’s totals have averaged 6.5 per game. Overs are 4-0 for the L4 games in Seattle and 8-0 for the L8 meetings between these two clubs. And then the clincher for me, Dallas is 5-0-1 on overs for their L6 and Seattle is 5-0 in their last 5. Although both clubs were just below .500 for overs against all opponents during the regular season, the playoffs seem to be a different story. The intensity, physicality and pressure all seem to conspire to create high event hockey. Jump on the over. |
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05-12-23 | Warriors v. Lakers OVER 221 | Top | 101-122 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
I don’t understand why the oddsmakers moved this number so low. For the first five games of the series, the closing O/U line has ranged from 223.5 to 229.5. The “low water mark” was the last game, which went Over as the Warriors stayed alive via a 121-106 win and cover. I understand that both teams shot pretty well in Game 5. Golden State ended up at 51.1% overall and 37.1% from three while Los Angeles was 48.3% and 37.0%. We may not see BOTH teams shoot that well again tonight. But Game 6 is in LA and the Warriors (as you know) have been dreadful on the road all season (12-34 SU, 14-32 ATS). The primary reason for those dreadful results has been the defense. On the road, the Dubs are allowing roughly 10 points/game more than what they are allowing at home. That is why the Over is 29-15 in all Warriors’ road games. One positive for Golden State is that Steph Curry is just 6 of 25 from three the last two games. I say “positive” because you’ve got to expect he’s not going three games in a row shooting that poorly from distance. The team still scored 121 last game with Curry going 3 for 11 on 3PA and not attempting a single free throw. Golden State did only average 99 points in the two prior games here in LA. But, for the year, they are putting up 117.3 points/game away from home. Expect a better offensive effort from the Warriors here and that leads to this game going Over the total. 10* |
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05-12-23 | Panthers v. Maple Leafs UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 111 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
I am again confident on this one despite going 1-1 last night. This is my first under in awhile but the sports books have been taking a beating and they offered up a generous one to try and turn the tide. That combined with the new approach Toronto is taking to protect their young goaltender, Woll. 12 different Leafs blocked shots last game as a key point in their heroic defending. That combined with the fact that Toronto’s core 4 forwards can’t seem to get untracked with Florida’s physical and smothering defense indicates a low event affair tonight. Also of note is that all 4 games in this series have been under, Toronto has been under for their last 6 and head to head the Panthers and Leafs are 6-0 on unders for their last 6. The Leafs may be under the gun to extend this series and you can pick under with confidence for tonight’s match up. |
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05-11-23 | Seattle Kraken v. Stars OVER 6 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 103 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
Dallas is a heavy favorite tonight, but the Kraken are a much better team on the road, and a very good candidate to bounce back after a loss this season. The total has edged up to 6 today; not surprising as every game has gone well over in the series. Grubauer did not look sharp in Game four, and was pulled after 40 minutes. He has been much less successful vs Dallas with a save % under .900 in three of four games this series. The same could be said of Oettinger, with a surprisingly low save % of .860. Fatigue could be a factor; the young goalie has played a ton of hockey this year. Seattle still managed three goals in spite of the Stars limiting the Kraken to just 19 shots. The Kraken continue to surprise on offense, and with McCann back, offense could still be the name of the game tonight. With the topsy turvy nature of wins in the playoffs, I am hesitant to pick a side today but I am big on the total. Take the Kraken and Stars to again go over. |
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05-11-23 | Celtics v. 76ers UNDER 212.5 | Top | 95-86 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
Boston’s season is on the line tonight in Game 6, but they’ll have to go on the road to force a Game 7. At home in Game 5, it was a bad shooting night overall (and from three), thus I’m not expecting dramatic improvement tonight in Philadelphia. But, strangely enough, I don’t think the 76ers will match their Game 5 shooting in Boston, which saw them go 50.6% from the field and 40% from three. Both James Harden and Tyrese Maxey have been inconsistent for them throughout this series and expecting both to have big games tonight, I think, is a mistake. Outside of Game 1, where both teams came out and shot the lights out, this has been a pretty low-scoring series. Over the last four games, we’ve seen no more than 218 total points scored in regulation. Remember that Game 4 here in Philly went to overtime and was tied 107-107 at the end of 48 minutes. So I’m looking at the Under here in Game 6. Lost in the shuffle of Philly’s Game 5 upset is that the teams combined for 61 free throw attempts. Don’t think we’ll see that number duplicated tonight. Most trends to point towards the Over, however, Boston is 7-1 to the Under following a double digit loss at home. Also, NBA Playoff Game 6’s where you have a home underdog coming off a Game 5 win - the Under has gone 5-2 the last seven times. 10* |
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05-11-23 | Devils v. Hurricanes OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -120 | 20 h 4 m | Show |
Every game this series has been over 5.5 and yet the sports books keep offering it to us and we’ll keep taking it. These two teams have averaged a total of 8 goals/game. Whether the Devils start Schmid or Vanecek doesn’t matter to me. Both have struggled in their last 10 and are barely above .500. Not a good look for the playoffs. So even though Carolina is not the most high octane offense they have consistently got to both goalies. And the Devils have the 4th ranked power play while the Canes penalty kill is 20th ranked. So the Devils should score their share as well. All bodes well for my record with this pick and another total above 5.5 for a fifth consecutive game. |
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05-11-23 | White Sox v. Royals OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
All of a sudden the Royals can hit. And win games at home. They have taken three of four from the lowly White Sox who have been just average in offense and very poor in the starting and relief pitching departments. Singer will start for the Royals. Much was expected this year but quality starts have been rare. The ERA (8.00+) and opposition BA (.300+) says it all. Clevinger will start for the White Sox. He has had mixed results this season, with two of his last three starts of the poor to fair department. He has not pitched well on the road this year. |
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05-10-23 | Cardinals v. Cubs UNDER 7.5 | Top | 4-10 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
Two fine starters square off in today"s Cardinals/Cubs match. The Cards' Lefty Montgomery has struggled in just one of seven starts this season. He has been especially tough lately allowing just three runs in eighteen + innings. Definitely not a victim of the long ball , he has allowed just two dingers to date. The Cubs' Steele has, if anything, been even better. His 1.45 ERA ranks with anyone in the league. Neither offense has been particularly successful against left-handers lately, and the bullpens (especially the Cubs') have been very solid. Take the Cubs and Cardinals to go under the total today! 9*! |
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05-09-23 | Stars v. Seattle Kraken OVER 5.5 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 3 m | Show |
The last game surprised in many ways. Oettinger looking so shaky, Dallas so vulnerable without Heiskinen, and so many different Kraken scoring at will. That second period seemed to take the wind out of the Stars’ sails. Coach Deboer is a master at making between game adjustments. Even if Heiskinen plays, the injury could affect his offensive and defensive abilities. Seattle has some confidence now and the home crowd to boost them even more. With the possibility of Grubauer coming back down to earth as well, all of this bodes well for a high event, high scoring game. The over is 6-0 for the last six games between these foes. Dallas averaged 3.83 goals and Seattle average 4.0 goals over that span. The total set at 5.5 seems like a gift. Take the over and make like a bandit. |
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05-09-23 | 76ers v. Celtics UNDER 213.5 | Top | 115-103 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
This series is now tied up 2-2. Philadelphia won Game 4, 116-115 in OT, after blowing all of a 16-point lead. The line closed as a pick, so it was a sweat for those on the Sixers. Over bettors didn’t actually need overtime as the game was tied 107-107 at the end of regulation (total closed 213.5). The teams combined to shoot 30 of 78 from three, the best shooting we’ve seen from distance in this series since Game 1. Boston shot slightly better overall, but could not get off a final shot in OT. Back home, the Celtics should tighten up defensively. After allowing 92 points through the first three quarters on Sunday, they held the Sixers to just 15 in the fourth on 31.6% shooting. Philly’s offense has also been very inconsistent in this series, specifically James Harden, who has two 40+ point games (Gms 1 and 4) but scored just 28 points total in Gms 2 and 3. Boston shot 58% in Game 1 and dominated the paint, but that was when Philadelphia didn’t have Joel Embiid. The Celtics’ edge in points in the paint has dropped dramatically over the last three games. The Under is 5-2 the last seven meetings here in Boston. 8* |
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05-09-23 | Hurricanes v. Devils OVER 5.5 | Top | 6-1 | Win | 103 | 20 h 34 m | Show |
The Devils woke up on home ice, pounding two of the three Canes' goalies. It remains to be seen if Raanta can go in game four or if Carolina will return to Andersen. If it is anything like last series, it will be difficult for the Hurricanes to stuff the Devils' scoring genie back in the bottle, so we could be in for a wild ride in game Five. NJ will come out flying again. Hughes broke out with four points, but New Jersey got scoring from a variety of sources. Even Vanacek chipped in with an assist. I have no faith in either of the Devils' netminders to limit Carolina. I expect another barn burner with plenty of scoring. Game five will go over the total, possibly well over. |
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05-08-23 | Golden Knights v. Oilers UNDER 7 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
The Golden Knights could not contain the Oilers' high octane offense and their potent power play in Game two. What was surprising was the Oilers, who are often defensively suspect, limiting the Knights to a single goal. Vegas has been a much better away team this season, playing a tighter more disciplined style on the road that is very suitable to the playoffs. They are a very well-coached team with an ability to adjust on the fly. While the Oilers are a heavy favorite today, I am not ready to count Vegas out. I think the Knights will focus on slowing down the Oilers down, at the cost of total goals. The total went under in Game two, and an even higher number is available today. Look for a tighter checking game and take the total to go under. |
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05-08-23 | Knicks v. Heat OVER 206.5 | Top | 101-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
The Heat won by 19 in Game 3, but it was pretty terrible shooting all-around as both teams shot below 40% from the field and 22% from three. It’s difficult to imagine that level of shooting being repeated, so I’m definitely looking for more scoring tonight in Game 4. One player we can count on to score is Jimmy Butler. Ironically, the Heat standout missed Game 2 and that was the one game in this series that has gone Over. But Butler has scored 25 points in each of his last nine games played and he had 30 in all but one game in the first round vs. Milwaukee. Game 3 marked the first time all postseason that Butler didn’t shoot 50% from the field. Each of the Knicks’ top three players (Barrett, Brunson, Randle) underperformed in the last game and they were a combined 2 of 17 from three. At least one player from that group is going to shoot much better tonight, if not all three. Miami is 4-0 to the Over when leading the series this postseason. 10* |
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05-07-23 | Nuggets v. Suns OVER 227.5 | Top | 124-129 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
I don’t think that the Suns should feel all that bad about being down 2-1 in this best of seven series. Chris Paul is out, they’ve gotten next to NOTHING from anybody outside of Kevin Durant and Devin Booker and are shooting below 30% from three for the series. If there was a time that SOMEONE would step up alongside Durant and Booker, it would be here at home. I also expect we’ll start to see that 3-point % start to improve. As for Denver, they scored 114 points in the Game 3 loss despite subpar overall shooting (44.3%). Over the last two games, the Nuggets are just 17 of 57 from three. Going back to the end of the regular season, the Over is on an 8-2-1 run in Suns’ games. With the expectation that both teams will see improvement in three-point shooting and the fact they combined for 235 points in the last game, I’ll gladly hop on the Over here. 10* |
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05-07-23 | Hurricanes v. Devils OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 114 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
The Devils bounced back after a poor start in the first series and are favored today, but the Hurricanes really seem to have New Jersey's number in this series. The Devils' goalie situation is pretty ugly. Neither net minder was effective in Game two, and Schmid's run would seem to have come to an end. I do think that the Devils will score more than one goal today; they certainly responded on offense upon returning home in the first series. The Canes, despite missing some key pieces on offense, are getting scoring from a range of players at the moment. They have been absolutely tenacious on the forecheck, and I don't see them taking their foot off the gas. We have seen the over in both games of the series despite very limited offense from the Devils. Carolina will again get their opportunities against whoever is in net. I am wagering on the over today. |
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05-07-23 | Twins v. Guardians UNDER 8 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
The Twins and Guardians both start solid pitchers on Sunday. Joe Ryan is 5-0, and off a 6 inning shutout in his last appearance. Quantrill also had a fine start last time out, and both teams are getting quality relief pitching. The Guardians have the worst offense in the league, and while they "broke out" for four runs on Saturday, they have otherwise managed just nine runs in their previous five games. The Twins aren't hitting well either at just .204 over their last 10 games. The under is a result in nine of the last ten Guardians games, and is also 11-4 when these two teams meet. Let's not buck the trend today. Take the Under on Sunday. |
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05-06-23 | Red Sox v. Phillies OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
The Red Sox' bats are redhot and I am not convinced that Falter (5.01 ERA) or the the Phillies Bullpen (5.77 ERA L10) will be able to cool them off. Boston is hitting a scorching .320 collective BA. and roughed up some very good Jays starters in their last series sweep. While Kluber has looked better in his last two starts, his overall numbers are not strong. The Phillies gave up 36 runs in their series against the Dodgers. Although the number is high, here is a great opportunity for a "total" victory today. Take the Sox and Phillies to go over the total today. |
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05-06-23 | Oilers v. Golden Knights OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -135 | 19 h 37 m | Show |
The Oilers will score their share of goals, and they still could win this series. It won’t be easy without an elite goalie considering how some of the defense plays, and while Skinner hasn't played badly, he is no game-changer. Like all the successful teams this year ,Vegas was tenacious on the forecheck in Game One. Broissoit has played better than expected but the Knights face an elite offense at 5 on 5, and one of the very best power plays ever. Add Draisatl, who is lights out in the playoffs, and the potential more than in any other series is for a bunch of goals from both sides . Take the over again in game two. |
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05-05-23 | Devils v. Hurricanes OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 120 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
The Devils were embarrassed by the more experienced Hurricanes. Let's hope that this will kick-start them for Game two. Schmid was pulled in Game one after three quick goals, leaving Game two's starter a question mark. The Devils had an even worse result in the first game of the Rangers series and did bounce back. While Carolina is an elite defensive team, Andersen faced just eighteen shots. I don;t believe that the high flyers we saw in the latter part of the Rangers series will be held to just a single goal and under twenty shots twice in a row. New Jersey has rebounded well after previous losses all season long and are 13-6 after a loss of two goals or more. Schmid has now had two poor outings. Is it possible that his cinderella run has ended? There are enough questions around the Devils goal tending to make the total, a low 5.5, very tempting. Go with the over today. |
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05-04-23 | Seattle Kraken v. Stars OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 112 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
Game one of the series featured more goals than expected. Five goals against the Stars and Oettinger is a rare occurrence, but the Kraken accomplished it with tenacious forechecking and their usual balanced fifth-ranked attack. The Kraken's ability to play tough without taking penalties eliminated the Stars' very potent power play in game one. Neither goal-tender looked sharp, but the less than stellar play by Grubauer is more concerning. Oettinger is far more likely to bounce back. |
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05-04-23 | Lakers v. Warriors UNDER 227.5 | Top | 100-127 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
While Game 1 was on an Over trajectory most of the way, it wasn’t until Dennis Schroeder hit a couple of free throws in the closing seconds that the bet officially cashed. Golden State is typically a lot better defensively at home than they are on the road. In fact, the difference in the number of points per game allowed is basically 10 (9.8). The Lakers, even shooting 55% on 2PA, scored 117 in Game 1. I don’t see them scoring as many tonight. The Under is 10-5-1 in the Warriors’ previous 16 home games. Only one Lakers’ game this entire postseason has seen more than 229 total points scored. That was Game 1 of the Memphis series. Consider that two other games went to overtime and there were still only 228 and 210 total points scored. Two of the three first round games in Memphis saw LA fail to score 100 points. Defensively, the Lakers were one of the league’s more efficient teams after the trade deadline. Their size is a problem for the Warriors, who shot 53 threes in Game 1 and still scored only 112 points. 10* |
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05-03-23 | Oilers v. Golden Knights OVER 6.5 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 21 h 22 m | Show |
The Oilers' top rated offense and power play were a little much for the Golden Knights in the regular season. Edmonton was 4-0 in Vegas and the over was 3-0-1. They are a very good road team this year. They do have their weak points, in goal tending and defense. Skinner was the worst net-minder in the first round, and a healthy Vegas side will have their chances on goal. Vegas got solid work from Broissoit in the Jets series, but the Oilers are a huge step up in speed and skill, and Broissoit has never been regarded as an elite talent. It took Edmonton a series last year to really get flying. We could see a very wide open style with the resulting high totals, starting in Game 1. Take the Oilers and Knights to go over. |
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05-01-23 | Rangers v. Devils OVER 5.5 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
Devils goal-tending issues returned as the Rangers finally broke through against Schmid in Game six. Who the Devils start in net today is the big question. At the other end, Shesterkin has been consistently good for the Rangers with a fine .939 save % in this series. While it didn't hold in this series, NJ has bee a force at home this season. The speed of the Devils has given the Rangers fits and we have yet to see a goal from Hughes. The Devils have been tough to beat at home this season and have also a very fine record in bouncing back from a loss. Having solved both Schmid and Vanacek, the Rangers will be ready for whoever is in net. In spite of these two teams' reputation for defense, I expect offense to be the color of the day. Wager on the Devils and Rangers to go over. |
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04-30-23 | Seattle Kraken v. Avalanche UNDER 6 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
There are some compelling reasons to consider a Kraken win tonight. Seattle is a very good road team and are 4-1 vs the Avs in Colorado. There are even more reasons to look at the total. The under has figured in five of six games in this series and in all of the Av's home games. Nine of ten recent meetings have all gone under. Seattle and Grubauer have defended better than anyone might have expected. The Av's have just a single player in the top twenty playoff scoring leaders and the Kraken have none. Seattle could still be missing McCann today, a big part of their scoring. I am not confident on picking a winner in game seven, but I do like the total very much. Jump on the under, especially if under six is available. |
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04-29-23 | Oilers v. Kings OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
Skinner has a save % of .884 in the series and Korpisalo has given up 9 goals in 2 games. We have now seen the total go over in the last two games. Neither of these two teams were better than average statistically this season and goal-tending had much to do with that. With the Oilers the top offense and with a devastating PP, high totals seemed inevitable. For me, Korpisalo overachieved in the early series. I am betting that the Oilers get to him or Copley again today. I also can't believe that the Kings can subdue McDavid much longer. I am not counting the Kings out yet, but I am big on a total prediction today. Take this game to go over the total |
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04-29-23 | Suns v. Nuggets UNDER 226.5 | Top | 107-125 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
The first thing you need to do when handicapping this series is throw out the four regular season meetings. Denver won the first two, but that was before Kevin Durant arrived in Phoenix. Then the Suns won twice late in the season, but that was with the Nuggets sitting key players both times, including Nikola Jokic. We know both teams have a ton of offensive firepower among their ranks, but they’ll each be coming off a three days' break in between series. That leads me to believe we could see a little rust here, at least early on. No one is going to confuse Minnesota with Phoenix, but the Nuggets did just hold the T’wolves to an average of 105.4 points per game in the first round. For the season, Denver is #3 in the league in points allowed per game at home (109.8). The Under is 6-2 in the last eight games here at the Ball Arena. Where Denver struggles at the defensive end is defending the rim. But Phoenix takes the fewest number of shots at the rim of any playoff team. Both teams also rank bottom 10 in pace, so - with this being the first game of the series - I expect a “feeling out process” and fewer possessions than normal. 10* |
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04-28-23 | Kings v. Warriors UNDER 235 | Top | 118-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
After dropping the first two games (in Sacramento) of this best of seven series, the Warriors have stormed back with three straight wins and can now, back home, eliminate the Kings in Game 6. Wednesday’s win made it 28 consecutive playoff series where Golden State won at least one road game, a NBA record. We all know they are a much better team at home - where they are 35-8 SU and 29-14 ATS this season. A big key for the Warriors’ home success is that they allow just 111.7 points/game at home. Compare that to the 122.3 points/game that they allow on the road. That’s a big difference. Sacramento also allows fewer points on the road (116.2) than they do at home (119.1) though the difference is not as significant as Golden State. In three of the last four games, the Kings have shot 29% or worse from three. De’Aaron Fox having a fractured finger doesn’t help matters. He was 9 of 25 from the floor in Game 5 including 3 of 10 from three. The team went 2 for 22 from three after the first quarter. The Under is 24-11 this season in Warriors’ home games when the number is 230 or higher. In the NBA Playoffs, Unders have cashed at better than 58% in Game 6/7 since 2004-05. 10* |
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04-28-23 | Mariners v. Blue Jays UNDER 9 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
Jays' starter Manoah finally got on track in his last game and Castillo, the Mariners' ace, has been exceptional all season, with an ERA of 1.90 over 23 innings. He has not been getting great run support from the Seattle offense. In fact both of these teams have been underachieving with the bats. The Jays have been hitting well in recent games, but haven't faced a good pitcher since Cole (3-2 result). Seattle is hitting below .200 as a team over the last ten games. With a healthy total available today, I am wagering on the Under. |
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04-27-23 | Rangers v. Devils UNDER 5.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
Both these teams have a penchant for winning on the road and the series has followed that pattern. I think the Devils success in games three and four has more to do with A. a young team finding their playoff footing, and B. putting Schmid in net. The youngster has allowed just two goals in forty-nine shots.. It isn't as if the Devils are ripping up Shesterkin and the Rangers, having scored just just seven goals in four games. These were, after all, two tough top ten defenses in the regular season, and if Jersey gets solid goal-tending again, we could see another low total. I'm wagering on the under again today. 10* |
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04-26-23 | Heat v. Bucks UNDER 219.5 | Top | 128-126 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
The Miami Heat have drastically overperformed in this first round playoff series, especially at the offensive end of the floor. They’ve averaged 123 points through the first four games and you can’t necessarily blame that all on Milwaukee being without Giannis Antetokounmpo as he returned for Game 4 and the Heat scored 119, led by a sensational performance from Jimmy Butler, who had 56 points by himself. This is only the fourth time since 1984 that an 8-seed holds a 3-1 series lead over a 1-seed. Something else to keep in mind - the Heat were the lowest scoring team in the NBA during the regular season at 109.5 points/game. Furthermore, the Heat were also #2 in points allowed (109.8 per game). What has happened in this series is truly head-scratching to say the least. So I will try the Under yet again. On the road, it’s more likely that Miami’s shooting will regress (than at home). Remember that both Herro and Oladipo are out. 10* |
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04-25-23 | Hawks v. Celtics UNDER 229.5 | Top | 119-117 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
This series heads back to Boston with the Celtics up 3-1 and looking to close things out. Both games in Atlanta went Over, but the two here in Beantown stayed Under with the big difference being that the Hawks just couldn’t score nearly as much on the road. Dejounte Murray is suspended for Game 5 due to making contact with an official. The Hawks will miss him as he’s averaging over 25 points/game in this series. Games 1 and 2 saw the Hawks score just 99 and 106 points respectively and Trae Young wasn’t much help, going 3 of 13 from three. Credit the Hawks for shooting a lot better the last two games. But before that, they’d shot 33.3% or worse from three in seven straight games against the Celtics. The Under has hit four of the last five times Atlanta has visited Boston. Also, the Under has been a very profitable wager in Hawks’ playoffs games through the years, especially in the first round. They are 41-18-1 to the Under in first round playoff games. Boston is an elite defensive team. They posted the second best defensive rating in the league during the regular season. 10* |
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04-24-23 | Avalanche v. Seattle Kraken OVER 6 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
The Avalanche got to Grubauer in a big way, which is not really a surprise. Goal tending was always a question mark for the Kraken. Seattle responded with four goals in game 3, again not really surprising, as they possess one of the better offenses in the league. The Av's last 6 away games have all gone over, and Colorado is a tough opponent on the road. Seattle has not been at their best at home this year. We've reached situation critical in the series. Seattle will be all in, and that means offense. Colorado is tough to beat when MacKinnon et al get rolling. Look for another high total, and jump on the over today |
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04-24-23 | Grizzlies v. Lakers UNDER 221 | Top | 111-117 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
After a high-scoring Game 1 (128-112 Lakers’ win), the last two games of this series have both gone Under the total. Memphis won Game 2 at home without Ja Morant, 103-93. But then, despite Morant returning, the Lakers exploded out of the gate (led 35-9 after 1Q) and won 111-101 in Game 3 to take a 2-1 series lead. Morant got things going late in Game 3, scoring 24 points in the 4Q to finish with 45 for the game. But his teammates gave him next to nothing, combining to score just 56 points on 32.8% collective shooting. Dillon Brooks was ejected for a low-blow on LeBron James. Memphis will definitely shoot better tonight in Game 4. Meanwhile, the Lakers are probably due to shoot better themselves, at least from three-point range (where they’ve gone 14 of 54 the last two games). Keep in mind that Game 3 only stayed Under by nine points despite the Grizzlies scoring only 9 in the first quarter. The Over is 7-3 the last 10 times the Grizzlies have been off an ATS loss. The Over is 7-1 in the Lakers’ last eight games after a SU win. 8* |
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04-24-23 | Bucks v. Heat UNDER 217 | Top | 114-119 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
Based on closing lines, every game in this series has gone Over the total. That’s primarily thanks to Miami being much better than expected offensively. The Heat have not only scored more than 120 points in all three games, but they are shooting 55% overall for the series and 50% from three. Something to keep in mind is that the Heat were the lowest scoring team in the league during the regular season, averaging just 109.5 points/game on 46.2% overall shooting and 34.8% from three. They were also 29th in adjusted pace, meaning they played very slow. Giannis Antetokounmpo being out for the Bucks has dominated the headlines for this series, but the injury bug now seems to have bit Miami. Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo have suffered season-ending injuries while Jimmy Butler (averaging 30 points/game in this series) is questionable and Bam Adebayo is not at 100 percent. So the ridiculous shooting we’ve seen so far from Miami in this series should definitely tail off. But the Heat were also one of the top defensive teams this year, allowing the second fewest points/game in the league (109.8). I’m on the Under, no matter if Giannis and/or Butler plays or not. We’re simply due for a lower-scoring game. There were only 101 total points scored in the second half Saturday. 10* |
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04-23-23 | Cavs v. Knicks OVER 206.5 | Top | 93-102 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 42 m | Show |
Every game in this series has stayed Under the total and as a result of that, the current O/U line for Game 4 is basically 10 points lower than the closing O/U line for Game 1. Now, not only has every game stayed Under, but the Cavs and Knicks have yet to even combine for 200 total points! In Game 3, Cleveland scored just 79 points. That was the fewest points scored by any team, in any game this NBA season. The lack of scoring has created solid value on the Over here, in my opinion. Cleveland won’t shoot 38.7% overall again this afternoon nor will they miss 26 of 33 three-point attempts. For the series, the Cavs are averaging just 94.3 points on 43.7% shooting. This is well below their season averages of 111.6 points/game on 48.6% shooting. It’s a similar story with New York, who is averaging 96.7 points on 42% shooting in this series. They average 115.3 points on 46.8% shooting for the season. I just can’t see the cold shooting from both teams continuing. Take the Over in Game 4. 10* |
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04-21-23 | Celtics v. Hawks UNDER 228.5 | Top | 122-130 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
Boston easily won Games 1 and 2 at home and I really don’t see Atlanta having much of a path for success in this series, even with them now at home for the next two games. Perhaps the Hawks’ shooting will start to improve after they went a dismal 5 of 29 from three in Game 1 and 42.6% overall in Game 2. Their defense isn’t very good, but each of the first two games did stay Under the total and that’s the way I see Game 3 going as well. The Celtics are an elite team defensively and finished the regular season third in efficiency. In four of the five meetings this season, Boston has held Atlanta under 30% shooting from three. The one exception was Game 2 when the Hawks finished at 33.3% (16 of 48). Trae Young has really struggled with his shot in the first two games. He’s 14 of 40 overall and 3 of 13 on three-point attempts. Going back quite some time, the Under is now 41-16-2 in Hawks’ first round playoff games. Tonight should be no different. 8* |
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04-20-23 | Jets v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 22 h 31 m | Show |
I thought the Golden Knights would make more of a game of it, but the Jets shut them down, allowing just 17 shots. Hellebuyck, who can be a game changer, wasn't even worked. However the Jets are not always consistent, so I am not convinced of a similar result in Game two. Will it be Broissoit in net again? He was very good down the stretch, but allowed 4 goals with an .867 save % in Game one. I think we will see a better game from the Golden Knights, but the Jets have been putting up some high numbers of goals lately and scored with relative ease on Monday night. The best option in this match-up is the total. With a very low number available on Thursday, look for this game to go over. |
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04-20-23 | 76ers v. Nets OVER 209 | Top | 102-97 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
After a ridiculously low-scoring Game 2 (won by the Sixers, 96-84), I like the Over in Game 3 of this best of seven series. Certainly, this is a must-win for the Nets after losing the first two games. But I’m just not confident enough in this team to bet them plus the points. At home though, I am counting on a better effort at the offensive end after they shot 37.5% overall in Game 2. They shot 55% in Game 1. Both teams have been jacking up threes. Philly has hoisted 78 3PA in the two games while Brooklyn isn’t too far behind at 71. Now both were just 31% from long-range in Game 2. You’ve got to expect improvement tonight and with that kind of three-point shooting frequency, that should mean points. This is a really low number; I believe it’s the lowest for any playoff game thus far. The 76ers are 12-3 to the Over after allowing 100 points or less the previous game. Game 2 was the Nets’ second lowest shooting percentage of the season and they scored just 35 points after halftime. You have to figure we’ll see better offensive numbers at home. Philadelphia is third in offensive efficiency, so I’m not worried about them either. 10* |
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04-19-23 | Wild v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
I wondered which goal tender would step up in the Wild/Stars series and it appears both will. We could even see Fleurie tonight as Gustavsson did face over 50 shots on Monday. With Ek out and now Pavelski questionable, offense looks even more scarce for Wednesday. These are two very strong defensive teams (third and sixth in goals-allowed), and with play-off hockey being generally tighter, a high total is not to be expected. Take today's game to go under the total. |
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04-19-23 | Heat v. Bucks UNDER 219 | Top | 122-138 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
Miami lit Milwaukee up in Game 1, shooting 59.5% from the floor overall and making 15 of 25 threes (60%). I can’t see that happening again tonight as you have to remember the Heat were the NBA’s lowest scoring team during the regular season. Plus, Tyler Herro is now done for the season due to a broken right hand. Giannis Antetokounmpo is the big injury concern for the series, however, as Milwaukee has to handicapped dramatically differently without their superstar. He is listed as doubtful for tonight. Defensively, the Bucks aren’t as good without Antetokounmpo but they will also struggle offensively against Miami, who is #2 in points allowed this year. The Heat’s slow pace is also key. On average, their games have been the lowest scoring in the league this season. Whether or not Giannis plays, I like Game 2 to stay Under. It’s mostly because of Miami’s certain offensive regression but Milwaukee is also 5-2 Under off a double digit loss at home. 10* |
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04-18-23 | Hawks v. Celtics OVER 230.5 | Top | 106-119 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
If there’s one first round series in the NBA Playoffs that appears to be a total mismatch, it would be this one as Boston were runaway 112-99 winners in Game 1 and are once again double digit favorites for Game 2. Game 1 easily stayed Under the number as Atlanta shot just 38.8% from the field including a horrific 5 of 29 from three. I expect the Hawks will shoot better tonight. The Celtics scored 74 points in the first half of Game 1 and pretty much coasted from there. We all know about the historic offensive efficiency this team put forth in the early part of the season. They finished #2 in the league in offensive efficiency, only trailing a Sacramento team that did establish a new record in points per possession. Atlanta generally plays no defense as is evident by the fact they allow 117.9 points/game. Boston is 7-2 to the Over following a SU win by 10 or more points. 10* |
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04-17-23 | Warriors v. Kings UNDER 240 | Top | 106-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
The Warriors and Kings combined 249 points in Game 1, going Over the the closing number of 237.5. I expect a lower-scoring Game 2. There were a lot of free throws in Game 1, 59 combined attempts to be exact (32 for Sacramento, 27 for Golden State). Don’t think we’ll see that many again tonight. The Warriors have won at least one road game in a NBA-record 27 consecutive series. It’s not often that we see them trailing in a playoff series. But when they are, the Under has gone 16-6. The four regular season meetings between these teams saw the Under go 2-1-1. Only one the four saw more than 237 total points scored. With the world expecting an Over (and the number has been bet up a few points), I’m rolling with a “contrarian” Under. 10* |
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04-15-23 | Warriors v. Kings UNDER 238.5 | Top | 123-126 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
This is a fascinating series as the team with home court advantage (Sacramento) is a decided underdog. Since 1990, no top 3 seed has been this big of a series underdog and it’s not particularly close. Golden State has won a road game in all 24 series under Steve Kerr, but they were terrible away from home in the regular season, giving up an average of 122.5 points/game while going 11-30 SU and 12-28-1 ATS. Sacramento had the most efficient offense in the league during the regular season. But this is a really high total for a playoff game. I don’t expect either team to play as fast as they usually do. The Under is a surprising 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings between these teams including 3-0-1 here in Sacramento. This number, even after being bet down some, is still higher than any of the four regular season games. 10* |
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04-15-23 | Mets v. A's OVER 9 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 22 m | Show |
The A's have given up 24 runs in their last three games while scoring 23. Their starter Fujinami, has given up nearly 2 runs an inning to date. The A's sport the league's worst also runs-allowed average to date. Mets' starter Carrasco has struggled in the early season, also allowing more than a run an inning in his first two appearances. The A's bullpen will likely be very little help. On offense, the Mets should have power, they just haven't shown it very often yet. They are breaking out as I write, leading the A's 11-5 in just the fifth inning. I am a believer in a very high score total in Saturday's match-up . Jump on the over, and quickly. After Friday's score this total could rise. |
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04-12-23 | Bulls v. Raptors OVER 214.5 | Top | 109-105 | Loss | -104 | 28 h 9 m | Show |
Since the inception of the play-in format, Unders have gone 9-3 in these games including a perfect 6-0 last year. But this O/U looks far too low. Perhaps oddsmakers are fixated on the fact that all three of the regular season matchups between the Raptors and Bulls stayed Under the total. There were 217, 208 and 202 total points scored in those three games. As a result, we’ve got a far lower total here than any of those previous three matchups. Bulls’ games averaged 224.7 PPG this year. Raptors’ games averaged 224.1 PPG. Going by those averages, there’s clear value here on the Over. I looked through every Chicago result this season and this would be the lowest O/U for any game all season. The only two lower than 219.5 were both against Miami, who is the lowest scoring team in all of the NBA. Toronto has had four games this year with lower totals. Three of them were in October. The last one was two days before Christmas, vs. Cleveland, and that game went Over with 225 total pts scored. 10* |
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04-09-23 | Rockets v. Wizards OVER 227 | Top | 114-109 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 36 m | Show |
Two teams just playing out the string on Sunday as the Rockets are guaranteed to finish with a bottom three record in the league while the Wizards have also been eliminated from playoff contention for some time now. Maybe the only thing more surprising than seeing the Rockets favored here is the fact they’ve actually been road favorites three times previous to this. They are 2-1 SU/1-2 ATS in those games. One of those was their last game, a 112-109 victory over Charlotte where they did not cover as 4.5-point chalk. Houston comes in having won their last two games, but I could never lay points on the road with them as they’re just 12-25 ATS away from home this season. But I’m not in a rush to back the Wizards either. They too are off a win, 114-108 over Miami as 5-point underdogs, but haven’t won consecutive games in more than a month. Four starters and five rotation players missed the Miami game for Washington and they’ll be short handed again here. I just can’t imagine there will be much defense played in this game. Both teams are already in the bottom 10 defensively with Houston having the second worst defensive rating in the league. The Over has hit in six straight Wizards’ games, three of which saw more than 240 total points scored. The Over is also 7-2 in the Rockets’ last nine road games. 10* |
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04-07-23 | Pistons v. Pacers OVER 229 | Top | 122-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
Neither of these teams are going to the playoffs. So with it being the second to last game of the season, expect little to no defense to be played as 34-46 Pacers host the 16-64 Pistons. Detroit is just straight up tanking at this point as they have just ONE win since the All-Star Break. That came against Indiana 117-97, back on March 13th. That’s tied for the Pistons’ best offensive output since the Break. It was also the second fewest points they’ve allowed since the ASB. But considering they’ve let their last three opponents all shoot 51% or better from the floor, that defensive effort isn’t likely to be repeated tonight. Coming into the season, Indiana was thought to be perhaps the worst team in the Eastern Conference. They surprised early, becoming the first team to go Over their season win total. But it’s shaping up to be a rocky finish with just one win over the last seven games. The Pacers’ last game was a 138-129 final. They lost to the Knicks. Four times in the last six games, Indiana has scored more than 120 points. But the bad news is they’ve also allowed 127 or more four times in that stretch. Detroit’s last four games have all gone Over. Again, there will be no defense played in this game. 10* |
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04-05-23 | Lightning v. Rangers UNDER 6 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
After four straight losses, the Lightning finally got their act together and played the way they are capable of, winning 3 straight. Not just winning; they have outscored the competition 14-2. They will face the Rangers on 3 days rest. The 8-2 Rangers are also well rested, and are playing at home tonight. The under dominates these two teams' latest action, 4 straight for Tampa, 2 of 3 for the Rangers, and 7-0 when these two teams meet. The Rangers have the fourth best goals-against avg. and Shesterkin in net. He has a .946 save % over his last seven games. Not to be outdone, the Lightning have Vasilevskiy at the top of his form, with 2 shutouts and a scorching .978 save % in his last four starts. This is essentially an early play-off game. Look for a continued tight checking, low-scoring affair, and take the total to go under. |
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04-04-23 | Avalanche v. Sharks OVER 6.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 21 h 15 m | Show |
The Sharks have won three straight games, including wins against two play-off bound teams. Equally surprising, they have also scored 23 goals in their last 6 games. Not surprising then, that the over is 5-1 in the Sharks last six games. The Avs, playing in San Jose on Tuesday, have won five straight road games, scoring 21 goals. They have an exemplary record against the Sharks, with the over figuring in 14 of 19 meetings. Kahkonen is off a rare win, but has allowed at least four and as high as eight goals in recent appearances. This is still a meaningful game for the Avs, but it appears San Jose still has it's heart in it while playing down the stretch. Look for another high scoring game and take the over. |
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04-03-23 | Golden Knights v. Wild UNDER 6 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 7 m | Show |
The Golden Knights play a very tight brand of hockey on the road, essentially play-off hockey. They have an exceptional road record. They beat up on the Wild last time out, holding Minnesota to a single goal. The Wild are not a highly productive offense, especially with Kaprisov still out. Minnesota gets by on solid defense and excellent goal-tending, especially from Gustavsson, who should be in net on Monday. He has been exceptional lately. Both teams are in first in their respective divisions, but have no breathing room. Look for a pre-playoff type of game, and take the total to go under. |
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04-02-23 | Mavs v. Hawks UNDER 244 | Top | 130-132 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
Dallas is just 9-14 SU since the Kyrie Irving trade and in danger of missing the playoffs entirely. That would be quite the embarrassment. Atlanta may be just 9-9 SU since firing Nate McMillian, but their postseason prospects look a lot more favorable at this point. They are 8th in the East with a four-game cushion. This is the second game of a back to back for the Mavericks and the end of a five-game road trip. They lost yesterday in Miami, 129-122 as a 1-point underdog, despite shooting 61% from the floor. The Hawks are also coming off a loss, 124-107 in Brooklyn. They didn’t shoot well (42.9%) but for a fourth consecutive game they allowed the opponent to shoot better than 50%. You can always expect a high total when the Hawks are involved, but each of their last three games have actually stayed Under the closing number. This despite 231 or more total points being scored in all three contests. The Under is 6-2 their last eight games as well. It’s another high total here. Even with Atlanta's defensive struggles, the Mavs aren’t about to shoot the ball as well as they did yesterday. Also, Dallas is a team that likes to shoot a lot of threes. But the weakness of the Hawks’ defense is defending 2-point attempts. I won’t call for this to be a low-scoring game, but it will stay Under. 10* |
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04-01-23 | Florida Atlantic v. San Diego State OVER 131 | Top | 71-72 | Win | 100 | 124 h 54 m | Show |
The last 12 San Diego State games have all stayed Under the total. But I’m going to say it’s “lucky #13” for Over bettors Saturday night against Florida Atlantic in the first of two national semifinals in the Final Four. Incredibly, going back to the second half of the second round game vs. Furman, San Diego State opponents have combined to miss 45 of their last 51 3PA. The Aztecs are certainly very sound defensively, but there’s no way opponents should be missing at that kind of rate over such a sustained period. Florida Atlantic rediscovered the three-point shot against Kansas State in the Elite 8, making 9 of 23 attempts. That’s not lights out shooting by any means, but it’s more made threes in one game than the last two SDSU opponents have made. I truly believe that FAU is going to do a better job here than previous SDSU opponents. FAU averages 78 points/game. Let’s also not forget San Diego State topped 70 in the second round and Sweet 16. In the end, this boils down to my belief San Diego State can’t continue getting away with their opponents shooting so poorly from three. That may sound like an an endorsement of the Owls to cash, but I also expect San Diego State to improve offensively from the Creighton game (where they shot 38% overall, were 3 of 13 from three and attempted only six free throws). 10* |
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04-01-23 | Bruins v. Penguins UNDER 6.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -114 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
The Bruins seem to dictate the flow of the games they play, and five of their last six games have gone under the total. With the best defense and PK in the league, no one seems to score often against the Bruins, and Boston hasn't relied on a ton of offense for their recent wins, Swayman will likely be in net today. He has had 2 shutouts, and a .962 save % in his last 4 games. Jarry is much improved of late, off a shutout win of his own. The under is a solid 5-1 when the Bruins and Penguins meet up in Pittsburgh. With a hefty total of 6 1/2 available, I believe this game will also go under the total. |
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03-31-23 | Bulls v. Hornets OVER 223.5 | Top | 121-91 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
Charlotte has been a pesky spoiler over the last week, winning three times as an underdog of nine or more points. After beating Dallas twice, the Hornets put a dent in Oklahoma City’s playoff aspirations with a 137-134 win on Tuesday. Now they face the 10th place team in their own conference, Chicago, who has lost two in a row. The Bulls are still likely going to make the play-in tournament, but they haven’t helped themselves lately by allowing the Clippers and Lakers to both shoot over 50% from the floor. The Clippers shot it at a 59% clip against them on Monday. I expect this to be another high-scoring contest. The Bulls have shot 51% or better in four straight, so offense hasn’t been the issue. They are averaging 116 points/game in that stretch. The team’s offensive rating has been way up this month. Charlotte has been short-handed but that hasn’t seemed to matter. P.J. Washington had a career 43 points against OKC and the team shot 55% overall including 14 made threes. All three prior meetings between the teams this season have stayed Under. But we’re getting a great number here, IMO. Consider that the closing O/U lines for the last two meetings were 235 and 237. 10* |
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03-30-23 | Pelicans v. Nuggets OVER 228 | Top | 107-88 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
We’ve got two teams on Under runs with Denver 6-0 to the Under in its last six games and New Orleans 17-7 Under in its last 24. But I think this number is far too low for a couple of teams that have both been shooting very well of late. Led by Nikola Jokic, Denver is one of the best offensive teams in the league. They’ve shot 50% or better from the floor in each of the last eight games. This really isn’t all that surprising considering they lead the league in FG% at 50.9. They are on the only team in the NBA above 50%. At home, the Nuggets are averaging 120.7 points/game, basically an increase of eight points/game over what they average on the road. Four of the last six games have come on the road. Expect the Nuggets to have success here offensively against a Pelicans team whose recent defensive output is slightly misleading. While New Orleans has allowed an average of just 100.0 points over its last five games, that includes facing San Antonio, Charlotte and Portland. The Pelicans just allowed 120 at Golden State the other night. I think we’ll see New Orleans shoot the three better than they have in either of the two previous matchups with Denver. The Over has hit in 7 of the Nuggets’ last 10 at home. 10* |
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03-29-23 | Islanders v. Capitals OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -117 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
The 6-4 Islanders have stepped up their play lately and have been finding the back of the net regularly, but have not been defending to their norm. The Capitals are still a scoring threat, but are giving up goals at an alarming rate, 4+ GA on average in their last 8 games. Seven of ten of the Isles' games and a full nine of ten Caps' games have gone over today's total. Sorokin was great in his last start but has been more uneven of late than we have come to expect. Caps' goalie Kuemper has allowed 4 goals in three of his last four starts. The Islanders played poorly vs the Capitals last time out and are still on the dance card for the play-offs, so look for a better effort today. The over is 4-1 when these two teams have met recently. With the low total available, I expect a similar result today. Go for the over. |
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03-28-23 | Hornets v. Thunder OVER 229 | Top | 137-134 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
Currently 10th in the Western Conference and holding onto a tenuous half-game lead for the final play-in spot, Oklahoma City needs wins. Fortunately for them, their next three opponents will be Charlotte, Detroit and Indiana (i.e. the three worst teams from the Eastern Conference). But even though OKC is 17-10 ATS vs. the East this season, I’m not sure I’d want to lay this many points. I certainly do expect the Thunder to put a decent number of points on the board, however. When they’re at home, they average 121.1 PPG this season. Sunday night, the Thunder scored 118 in a win at Portland. It probably should have been more but scoring in that game slowed way down in the 4Q. As for Charlotte, they are due for an uptick in scoring after their last five games have all stayed Under. They’re averaging just 104 points over that five-game stretch, which is well below their season average of 111.1 points/game. In my view, these teams should have no problem combining for 230+ points. They combined for 234 in the first meeting of the season, back in December. 10* |
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03-27-23 | Bucks v. Pistons OVER 233.5 | Top | 126-117 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
Milwaukee is a team that doesn’t have much difficulty scoring. Over their last five games, the Bucks have averaged 124.2 points, including two efforts with 130 or more. Even when they don’t score all that much (like Saturday’s loss to Denver), their games tend to be high-scoring. (They gave up 129 to the Nuggets). One would think the Bucks are destined to have their way with the lowly Pistons on Monday. Detroit comes in with the worst record in the Eastern Conference and is 37 games back of the first place Bucks. The Pistons are tied for the second most points per game allowed (118.6) in the league this year. Having lost by at least nine points in five straight games, the Pistons are predictably massive underdogs here. I certainly have no interest in taking them, but also don’t want to lay this many points. So let’s look at the total. Again, Milwaukee should score a lot tonight. Especially after a game in which they made only 25 percent of their three-point attempts. For the season, the Bucks are shooting 36.6% from three. Over the last three seasons, the Bucks have been road favorites of at least 12.5 points six different times. The Over is 6-0 in those six games. I’m counting on Detroit giving us “enough” to get Over the total here. Last time these teams played, the final score was 150-130. 10* |
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03-27-23 | Canadiens v. Sabres OVER 6.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 2 m | Show |
31 goals in 7 games; not bad for the NHL's 26th ranked offense. The Canadiens have been scoring surprisingly frequently lately. Unfortunately they are also 29th/31st in goals against/PK, and have given up 37 goals in that same period. The Habs have had 7 of 10 games go over the total. The 3-7 Sabres have a legitimate barn-burner of an offense, but they've also struggled to defend. They shut out the Islanders, but all 5 previous games went over, with the Sabres allowing 5+goals against on average. No net minder can be expected to perform well given these defenses, however Allen is scheduled in net for Montreal and he has been truly dreadful in his last 3 games. Given the up and down nature of these two teams, either one could burn up the ice or flame out on any given day. The total is a much more dependable bet. Take the Over on Monday. |
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03-26-23 | Wolves v. Warriors UNDER 240.5 | Top | 99-96 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
analysis soonHigh totals are nothing new in the NBA, but this one is too high as Minnesota takes on Golden State Sunday, an important game for playoff positioning in the Western Conference. The Timberwolves come in 37-37, which has them seventh in the West. That’s 1.5 games back of Golden State (39-36). As a reminder, the top six get to avoid the play-in tournament. Minnesota has gone Over in four straight, but one of those was a double overtime game, another they shot the lights out against the Knicks (61.4 FG%!) and then they faced Atlanta, who plays no defense. It remains to be seen who is in the lineup for the T’wolves tonight. Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards are both listed as questionable. Regardless, Golden State is much better defensively at home than they are on the road. The Under is 21-13 this year at the Chase Center. The first two times these teams met this season, they combined for 233 and 213 points. That last one saw the Warriors without Steph Curry and Draymond Green, so this one may not be as low-scoring. But Golden State is 13-4 Under this season facing teams that allow 116+ points/game. 10* |
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03-26-23 | Miami-FL v. Texas UNDER 149.5 | Top | 88-81 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
Prior to going Over in its 83-71 Sweet 16 victory over Xavier, the Texas Longhorns had gone Under in seven consecutive games. I think we’ll see a “return to form” here in the Elite 8 vs. Miami. The Hurricanes stunned everybody by hanging 89 points on top seed Houston in the Sweet 16. That was the Canes’ second straight Tournament game, scoring more than 80 points. There’s no denying this is a talented offensive team, but I can’t shake the fact they probably should have lost to Drake and only scored 63 in that first round game. I don’t think we’ll see Miami shoot as well here against a Texas team that is Top 10 in defensive efficiency. I know I said the same thing about Houston’s defense, but the Cougars simply played poorly. Texas has shot better than 50% in each Tourney game thus far and was 7 of 12 from three vs. Xavier. That came on the heels of going 1 of 13 against Penn State. The Longhorns won’t be shooting as well here as they did in the last game. Texas might be without Dylan Disu. They managed without him against Xavier, but his absence would be significant. Both teams are set to cool off at the offensive end. 10* |
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03-25-23 | Connecticut v. Gonzaga UNDER 154.5 | Top | 82-54 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
Fireworks are expected here between UConn and Gonzaga, which some may view as a “de facto National Title Game” the way this bracket has broken. One could certainly make an argument that these are the two best teams still standing. UConn has shot the lights out the last two games (54% and 57%) and it’s not like Gonzaga is known for its defense. Yet we just saw Gonzaga’s last opponent fail to make a basket for an 11 minute stretch in the second half. Not saying that will happen again here (it won’t) but UConn is due to cool off offensively. On the flip side, Gonzaga has been down double digits each of the last two games. I don’t think Drew Timme has the kind of game he had vs. UCLA. Second chance points were also huge for the Zags vs. the Bruins. They are certainly not going to dominate the glass that same way vs. UConn, a team with tremendous size. The Huskies have allowed just 63, 55 and 65 points in their three tournament wins. The Under is 5-2 in UConn’s last seven games. This is a really high total for an Elite 8 game. 10* |
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03-25-23 | Jets v. Kings UNDER 6 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 102 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
The Kings are riding high in recent games. They haven't given up more than two goals in nine games, a real step up from their 3.2 goals against season's avg. Korpisalo has played very well as a King, with a .929 save % in his last eight starts. The Jets seem to be reverting to their fine defensive form but don't score much themselves lately. Their last five games have all gone under the total. Hellebuyck has looked better recently after a poor early March. The Jets are still in the running for a wild card spot, but must do what they do best to succeed, which is play a tight defensive game with solid goal-tending. Look for this match-up to go under the total. |
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03-24-23 | Princeton v. Creighton UNDER 140.5 | Top | 75-86 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
You have to give Princeton credit for getting to the Sweet 16, but I feel that the Tigers have had a bit of a “charmed life” in getting thus far. The Ivy League Tournament, just a four-team affair, was played in their home gym. Then, in their first round NCAA Tournament game, they watched Arizona go stone cold down the stretch. Drawing Missouri in the second round was a favorable matchup for the 15-seed. Creighton is by far the best defensive team that Princeton has seen in awhile. The Bluejays are Top 15 in the country in defensive efficiency. And Princeton has some worrisome offensive metrics. They’re currently 201st in 3PT%, 199th in FT% and 258th in offensive block%. At the same time, I don’t expect Creighton to shoot the three as well as they did against Baylor. They were 11 of 24 from behind the arc in that game. ShotQuality data indicates the Bluejays should have finished with about 11 fewer points. Creighton was also 22 of 22 from the FT line in that win over Baylor. Not sure we see that kind of production again either. 10* |
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03-24-23 | Islanders v. Blue Jackets OVER 6 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
The Islanders, winners of three straight, have scored seventeen goals while allowing just six. Five of six of their games have gone over the total. They have also won six straight against the Blue Jackets. The Islanders, still in the running for a wild card spot, have been beating up on weaker teams (and the Leafs), scoring in a very prolific un-Islander-like style. They face one of the league's worst defenses on Friday. Columbus are off a 7-6 win, but victories have been few and far between. High totals have not. The over has figured in eight of their last ten games. The Jackets have given up a ton of goals, but they have also managed to score an average of four goals a game in their last five games. The total is lowish, given the Islanders' reputation, but I expect a higher total on Friday night. Take the game to go over the total. |
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03-23-23 | Michigan State v. Kansas State UNDER 138.5 | Top | 93-98 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
I’m expecting this to be a defensive battle in the East Regional between 7-seed Michigan State and 3-seed Kansas State. The lower seeded team is actually the favorite here, which I’m not sure I agree with. But Under seems like the best course of action here considering Michigan State plays at a very slow pace (303rd in adjusted tempo) and hasn’t been hitting its threes recently (2 of 17 vs. Marquette). Kansas State probably can’t count on shooting 67% from two-point range either, which is what they’ve done in their first two tournament games. Against Marquette, Michigan State allowed only nine made field goals from inside the arc! Unders have been the way to go so far in the NCAA Tournament. Through the first two rounds (and play-in games), the Under is hitting at a 67% rate (35-17). Kansas State has been one of the few exceptions to the Under rule as both of their Tourney games so far have stayed Under. But they shot poorly from three against Kentucky in the second round and my guess is that Tom Izzo is going to come up with a way to slow down Markquis Nowell in this game. 10* |
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03-21-23 | Thunder v. Clippers UNDER 238.5 | Top | 101-100 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
This is a big game for both teams in what is shaping up to be a very crowded (and tight) Western Conference playoff race. Only four games separate 4th from 12th place in the West. Both the Thunder and Clippers are in that mix. Oklahoma City has a better point differential than all but the top four teams. So they are to be respected. But I’m not sure I’d want to take the Thunder here against a Clippers team that was the preseason NBA Title favorite and now at full strength. The Clippers are already 0-2 vs. the Thunder this season, however. So instead of the side, let’s look at the total as the Under looks like a smart play here. The Under is 29-10 in the Clippers’ previous 39 home games. Plus 12 of the last 16 meetings between these teams here in LA have gone Under. 8* |
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03-19-23 | Blue Jackets v. Golden Knights UNDER 6.5 | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 38 m | Show |
Other than a poor effort vs Calgary, Vegas has been overachieving on offense, averaging over 4 goals a game in their last 5. They'll be all in against Columbus to hold onto their lead in a tight Western Conference. Both defenses are depleted. Vegas is missing a remarkable 4 goal-tenders this year. Columbus is down a goalie and 2 defensemen at the moment. Hutchison gave up five goals for Columbus last time out. Quick really struggled vs Calgary, and his save % is under .890 for the season. Columbus is a finalist in the Bedard sweepstakes, winning just once in their last seven games. They are 8-20 on the road, and bottom feeders on offense and defense. I expect Vegas to put up big numbers vs the Blue Jackets, but Quick has hardly been unbeatable lately. The over has figured in 7 of 10 Columbus games and 3 straight Vegas Knights matches.Take this game to go over the total as well. |
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03-18-23 | Northwestern v. UCLA UNDER 126.5 | Top | 63-68 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
UCLA demolished UNC Asheville in the first round 86-53, easily covering the 17-point spread. Northwestern, who opened as a dog but ended up being bet to a favorite, defeated Boise State 65-57 and obviously covered the number as well. I expect this to be a low-scoring contest. Oddsmakers do too. But I think the O/U is too high here considering both teams are 235th or lower in adjusted tempo and in the top 20 in defensive efficiency. UCLA is actually #1 in the country in defensive efficiency per KenPom. The Bruins shot 54% against UNC Asheville, which they won’t do again here. But I do expect another strong defensive effort, similar to the L3 games where they’ve allowed 33%, 36% and 37% shooting to go along with 56, 61 and 53 points. Over the last month, Northwestern has not gone back to back games without shooting below 37% once. They shot 49% against Boise State. So recent history suggests they’ll be off here. UCLA is 4-1 Under following a straight up win by 20 or more points. 10* |
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03-17-23 | Blues v. Capitals OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 56 m | Show |
The Caps travel to St. Louis on Friday, facing the 3-7 Blues. In addition to losing, the Blues have given up 13 goals in their last two games. For the Season, the St Louis defense has sunk to 28th. With Binnington sent to the corner, it will likely be Greiss in net. He has seen very limited action this season and for good reason. Even with their defensive woes, St. Louis can still put the puck in the net. They've averaged 4 goals scored in their last 4 games. |
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03-13-23 | Pacers v. Pistons UNDER 235.5 | Top | 97-117 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
The Pacers and Pistons just met on Saturday with Indiana winning 121-115. They (the Pacers) also won the only other meeting this season (back in October), 124-115. So that’s 2-0 ATS for them and 2-0 to the Over.
I think tonight’s game will feature a lot less scoring.
Detroit comes into tonight on a pitiful 11-game losing streak. They are already eliminated from playoff contention and also playing short-handed right now. Cade Cunningham, Hamidou Diallo and Isaiah Stewart all out for the season. In addition, leading scorer Bojan Bogdanovic and Alec Burks both sat on Saturday. The team is already bottom three in the NBA in scoring.
Indiana played without Tyrese Haliburton, their leading scorer, on Saturday, not to mention Myles Turner , Bennedict Mathurin and T.J. McConnell. Amidst all the absences, Jalen Smith, Isaiah Jackson and Andrew Nembhard combined for 58 points. The Pacers are still alive for the play-in tournament. There figures to be a lot of absences - for both teams - on Monday. Pacers’ coach Rick Carlisle has said he doesn’t expect any of the players who missed Saturday’s game to be back. The Pistons are in full on “tank” mode, so why would they rush anyone back? The Under had hit six straight meetings here in Detroit, prior to Saturday. 10* |
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03-12-23 | Wild v. Coyotes UNDER 6 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -120 | 21 h 44 m | Show |
The Wild have to be the best defense in the NHL over the medium term. Add two star-quality goalies in Gustavsson and Fleurie, and you can expect a steady diet of low totals. It will be Gustavsson in net on Sunday. The under has figured in 8 or 10 of their last games. Losing Kaprizov has put a further damper on a low scoring Sild offense. Arizona wighs in at 24th on defense, which is better than their offense (27th)The Under is 4-1-1 in their last six back to back situations. The Coyotes should have Vejmelka in net. While a bit uneven lately, he has held the Coyotes in many games this season. Bothe teams are playing on 0 days rest. We'll see two tired teams, both of which struggle on offense. The Wild are giving 2 or less goals a game on average. Add a couple of good net-minders, and you have the makings of yet another under. |
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03-12-23 | Cavs v. Hornets OVER 219.5 | Top | 114-108 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
Last night, Charlotte ended a nine-game Under run. Unfortunately for them, it came in a 119-111 loss to Utah. The Hornets, who are without LaMelo Ball for the remainder of the season, are one of four teams in the league out of playoff contention. Cleveland is top four in the East and has the second best scoring differential in the league. So, on paper, this should be an easy win for the Cavaliers. But they are coming off a 119-115 loss to Miami Friday night. The Cavs played two straight in Miami, winning the first game. Now they’ll be in Charlotte for another couplet. I’m expecting points in this one. That may seem strange with Cleveland leading the league in scoring defense and Charlotte being the top Under team. But we saw 230+ points in each team’s last game. This number is too low. When these teams met back in November, it was a 132-122 final, won by Cleveland. And that was with the teams combining to go a horrid 22 of 73 from three. Take the Over here. 10* |
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03-12-23 | Dayton v. VCU UNDER 124.5 | Top | 56-68 | Win | 100 | 4 h 5 m | Show |
Don’t go expecting many points in this Atlantic 10 Tournament Final. It’s all on the line this afternoon for both Virginia Commonwealth (the A-10 regular season champion) and Dayton (the preseason favorite). Neither team has done enough to earn an at-large spot in the NCAA Tournament. So both need to win here. VCU is 17th in the country in defensive efficiency. Dayton is a not-too-shabby 56th. Dayton also plays at one of the slowest tempos in the country (352nd out of 363 teams). Their games only average 62.6 possessions. VCU isn’t too far ahead of that at 68.2. We’ve seen some lights out shooting from both teams in this tournament, but my view is that it will halt Sunday. Dayton shot 60% against Fordham yesterday and will regress hard from that number here. VCU has been scoring considerably more than its season average the last seven games and is also due for some offensive regression. The teams split the two regular season meetings, each winning on the road. Those games saw 120 and 125 total points scored. 10* |
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03-11-23 | Kings v. Suns UNDER 240.5 | Top | 128-119 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
I like the Under in what promises to be the most meaningful game between the Kings and Suns in some time.
Sacramento is a surprising second in the West at the moment, tied with Memphis. They are 2.5 games ahead of Phoenix, who is in fourth.
The Kings have yet to beat the Suns this year, losing to them 122-117 and 120-109.
The Suns haven’t had much trouble scoring without Kevin Durant (injured), putting up 130+ points in consecutive games. But they are probably in line for some offensive regression here. Same with the Kings - who have made almost 54% of their field goal attempts the past five games. 10* |
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03-11-23 | Duke v. Virginia UNDER 123.5 | Top | 59-49 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
I like the Under in tonight’s ACC Tournament Final. Both Duke and Virginia are going to make the NCAA Tournament irregardless of this outcome. So it’s basically just pride (and an ACC Championship!) on the line.
Expect Duke to be motivated, however. The Blue Devils were wronged in the previous meeting with Virginia as they should have won outright in regulation. But a foul call against Virginia was overtuned, a decision the ACC later admitted the officials got wrong.
Even with overtime, the teams still only combined for 131 total points. (Virginia won 69-62 as 6.5-point favorite).
Virginia was an incredibly efficient 24 of 40 on two-point field goal attempts in that game. I do not see that happening again tonight. Virginia also has a top 10 scoring defense in the country, so Duke’s offense should be held in check as well. 10* |
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03-11-23 | Golden Knights v. Hurricanes UNDER 6 | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 18 h 19 m | Show |
The Golden Knights are on the road against a very good Hurricanes side. Vegas plays a close, tight-checking game on the road and will likely have Adin Hill back in net , a plus based on his recent play. The under is 11-2-1 in the Knights' latest away games. The Knights have a top eight goals against average this year, but might be outmatched by the Hurricanes" Number two defense. Andersen should be in net on Saturday. He has allowed just 1 goal in his last two starts. The under has also dominated the Canes recent home games, 5-0-1 in their last six. The total for this game is just average, too high for a pair of defense-first teams with solid net minders. Take the Under all the way to the bank. |
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03-10-23 | Ducks v. Flames UNDER 6 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 105 | 21 h 51 m | Show |
The Ducks are an all round poor team, worst or close to it in every category this season, but they have been managing to hold the score down in most of their recent games. Much of this is due to their goalie, Gibson, who has played very well in a losing cause most nights. They don't have a lot of quack on offense and just one game has gone over in their last 6 appearances. The 4-6 Flames have face tough competition lately. They got a shutout from Markstrom in their last game. Perhaps his play will turnaround down the stretch. The Flames will need him in prime form for any chance at a wild card spot. 4 of the Flames last 6 games have also gone under. Calgary has a slightly better than average defense but they've had trouble scoring lately. They won't likely face much of an offensive thrust from the Ducks. I am wagering on a lower total on Friday night. Take the Ducks and Flames to go under. |
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03-10-23 | Mississippi State v. Alabama OVER 137 | Top | 49-72 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 19 m | Show |
Engulfed in controversy, top seed Alabama begins its SEC Tournament journey on Friday, facing a Mississippi State team that had to go to overtime yesterday to get by Florida.
It’s not always the case, but generally I like to look at the Under the game after a team went to overtime. Sometimes the betting public just looks at the final score and is unaware the game even went to OT. In the case of Miss State, the score was tied 57-57 at the end of regulation yesterday. That would have been an easy Under (total closed 131) if not for the extra five minutes of basketball.
Miss State has now gone Over in five straight, so this O/U line has been bet up. I don’t agree with that move at all.
Alabama is #4 in the country in defensive efficiency. Miss State is #6!
The Crimson Tide like to play fast (#2 in adjusted tempo), but Miss State goes very slow (#333 in adj tempo). If the Bulldogs are able to slow this game down, then it should be an easy Under. The last time these teams played, they combined for just 129 points and 8 for 43 shooting from three. (Bama won 66-63). 10* |
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03-09-23 | Rockets v. Pacers OVER 236 | Top | 125-134 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
Indiana has turned things around a bit by going 4-3 SU and 6-1 ATS over its last seven games. They have to love the fact that Houston, who has the worst record in the NBA, is up next on the schedule.
But I wouldn’t want to lay this many points with the Pacers. The Rockets also did just win a couple of games recently and that counts for something, even if both were against the Spurs.
Hard not to like the Over here as Indiana’s last game ended up 147-143 (loss to Philadelphia). There was no overtime.
Houston allows 121.3 points/game on the road, so the Pacers should have no problems scoring. Indiana can obviously be sieve as well. They allow 117.9 points/game for the year. So Houston should score too. 10* |
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