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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-06-19 | Phillies v. Cardinals UNDER 9 | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
The set-up: Two starters who appear to be improving with each outing collide in the opener of this three-game series and in my opinion, runs are going to be at a premium tonight. The visitors got with Vince Velasquez, while the home side goes with Miles Mikolas. The pitchers: Velasquez (1-1, 2.73 ERA) is coming off an outing to forget though vs. the Tigers on Tuesday, allowing three runs over four innings. The one bright spot was that he’d strike out seven. Despite the sub-par showing though Velasquez still owns the sharp ERA and 1.22 WHIP to go along with a 29:10 K:BB. Mikolas (3-2, 4.73) gave up seven hits with one walk while striking out four over six innings in a win over the Reds on Wednesday. It was easily his best start of the year and I don’t think there’s any reason to think that Mikolas can’t now carry that momentum over here as well. The pick: Take it for what you will as ell, but Philly has seen the total go under the number in four of five already this year as an underdog in the +100 to +150 range, while St. Louis has seen the total dip under in six of its last nine after being swept on the road in a three game series by a division rival. This number is high. Philadelphia Phillies/STL Cards UNDER 8* play |
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05-02-19 | Raptors v. 76ers UNDER 217 | Top | 95-116 | Win | 100 | 23 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: This series is all tied up at one-game apiece. All signs point to another battle here. Toronto averaged 114.4 PPG in the regular season, but it’s averaging only 104.1 PPG in the playoffs, including just 89 last time out. The Raptors dominated defensively in their first round win and that’s carried over here as well, coming in holding the high-flying 76ers to just 101 PPG over the first two. Philadelphia has to be feeling pretty good about itself as it’s earned the split and won five of six overall. The 76ers have been terrific so far defensively as well, holding Toronto to just 98 points over the first two games. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Toronto has seen the total go under the number in five of its last six off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite, while Philly has seen the total dip under in four of five this year off a SU road win vs. a division rival. This number is a little high. Raptors/76ers UNDER 10* play |
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05-02-19 | Bruins v. Blue Jackets UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: It’s a big game. For both teams. Boston seemed to have momentum after it’s Game 1 victory, but Columbus quickly rediscovered its swagger which saw it dominate the Lightning in four games as it’s taken control with a 2-1 lead. The Bruins struggled in their seven game series win over Toronto and they’ve run out of gas here it would seem against this suffocating Blue Jackets side. Note that the Bruins have scored just six goals over the first three games of this series. One bright spot for Boston continues to be goaltender Tuukka Rask, who is still 5-5 with a 2.22 GAA in the playoffs. His counterpart Sergei Bobrvosky is now 6-1 with a 1.88 GAA in the playoffs for Columbus. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston has seen the total go under the number in nine of 12 after scoring one goal or less in its previous contest, while the Blue Jackets have seen the total dip under in four of its last five when leading in a playoff series. Everything points to another goaltenders battle here. Bruins/Blue Jackets UNDER 10* play |
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04-29-19 | Blues v. Stars OVER 5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 104 | 24 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: St. Louis won Game 1 3-2, which was a “push” on the total, before Dallas won Game 2 by a score of 4-2, which would go “over” the total. These are two of the best defensive clubs in the league and each has one of the best goaltenders between the pipes. Rookie Jordan Binnington has almost single-handedly carried his team to this point for the Blues. And the same could be said for the Stars Ben Bishop. Dallas has had a big shot advantage overall in this series though and if the Blues can’t keep pace, they’re going to find themselves in a big hole in a big hurry. The playoffs is all about making adjustments and I expect the visitors to come out and push the pace in Game 3. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up as another wide open affair. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but St. Louis has seen the total go over the number in its last two road games where the total is five or less, while Dallas has seen the total eclipse the posted number in three of its last four at home when the total is set at five or less. This number is low. Stars/Blues OVER 10* play |
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04-28-19 | Rockets v. Warriors OVER 225.5 | Top | 100-104 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: If you’re watching and wagering on this game, then the story lines and the cast of characters are well known to you. These are two of the most “covered” teams in the NBA over the last few years and their strengths and weaknesses are well known to even a casual NBA fan. I’m not here to to give you a player by player break down, I’m here to tell you why I think this particular game is going to go “over” the number. The Warriors have looked disinterested all year and they suffered a big blow when Boogie Cousins went down with injury in the first round. The Warriors are going to have to rely on their precise three-point shooting to overwhelm teams and they’re going to be forced to match pace with a Rockets team out to avenge last years Western Conference Finals loss. Clearly Houston won’t be sitting back and trying to play defensively. Overall I expect a faster paced game and that means mores shots and more shots = more points. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Houston has seen the total go over the number in all four games its played in this year in trying to revenge a close loss of three points or less vs. an opponent, while GS has seen the total go over in four of its last five as a home favorite of six points or less. This number is low, play the over. HOU/GSW OVER 10* play |
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04-28-19 | Rockies v. Braves UNDER 9 | 7-8 | Loss | -103 | 14 h 59 m | Show | |
The set-up: Colorado came from behind in the ninth inning to beat the Braves 9-5 last night. I think the finale of this three-game set sets up as more of a “duel” though. The visitors hand the ball to Tyler Anderson, while the home side counters with Kevin Gausman. The pitchers: Anderson is so far 0-2 with a 12.00 ERA. The good news for Anderson is that there’s only one way his performance can go from here. Anderson has struggled since returning from the DL, but the southpaw owned a respectable 3.59 ERA in all “day” games last year. Gausman is so far 1-2 with a 3.96 ERA. Over 25 innings he has a sharp 1.00 WHIP and 28:8 K:BB. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Colorado has seen the total go under the number in four of five already this season as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while ATL has seen the total dip under in five of six as a -150 fav or higher. This number is high. Rockies/Braves UNDER 9* play |
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04-25-19 | Nuggets v. Spurs UNDER 208 | Top | 103-120 | Loss | -104 | 26 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: What’s the first thing that comes to mind when you think of these two clubs? For me it’s hard-nosed defensive play. This is a big game for both sides obviously, as a win will see the Nuggets move onto the second round, while a victory for the Spurs would then push the series to a decisive Game 7. So far Denver has averaged 108.6 PPG in this series, while allowing 103.4. They held the Spurs to 90 points last time out for a second straight win in the series and if they’re going to do it again here to end it tonight. Overall the Spurs have averaged the 103.4 PPG, while conceding 108.6. The pick: Will Gregg Popovich make the necessary adjustments to push this to a Game 7? I think this one sets up as a very defensive affair. Take it for what you will as well, but Denver has seen the total go under the number in eight of its last 12 after scoring 105 point or more in four straight games, while San Antonio has seen the total dip under in 19 of 29 as a home favorite. This number is a little hight. Denver Nuggets/San Antonio Spurs UNDER 10* play |
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04-25-19 | Diamondbacks v. Pirates UNDER 7 | 5-0 | Win | 102 | 18 h 24 m | Show | |
The set-up: Arizona won 11-2 yesterday. This is the finale of a four-game set and I’m expecting a much better “pitchers duel” this afternoon. Pittsburgh has lost the first three of this series, getting outscored 25-7 in the process. Two experienced starters go head to head in the finale. The pitchers: Arizona’s Zack Greinke (3-1, 4.60 ERA) who after a couple of slow starts to open the 2019 campaign, has come on like “gang busters” of late by posting four straight quality starts and posting a sharp 2.81 ERA in the process. The home side counters with Jameson Taillon (1-2, 3.12), who like his counterpart today started the season slowly, but who has since “turned it around,” most recently going five innings in a 3-1 victory. The pick: Arizona has seen the total go under in 61 of its last 103 “day” games, while Pittsburgh has seen the total dip under in ten of 15 vs. right-handed starters. This number is a little high. Pittsburgh Pirates/Arizona D-Backs UNDER 9* play |
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04-22-19 | Rockets v. Jazz OVER 212.5 | Top | 91-107 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: Houston’s second half push has carried over into the first round of the playoffs. The Rockets and Jazz split four regular season meetings, but James Harden and company have stormed out to a quick 3-0 lead and if the Jazz don’t get something figured out on the offensive end, there season will end here and now. Clearly Houston will have its most difficult fight tonight, as the fourth game is always the most difficult to earn (in most cases that is.) Utah is a very defensive minded club, but it’s had its own issues slowing down the Rockets, losing 122-90, 118-98 and 105-96. I just think that from an overall “situational” stand point, that this one definitely sets up fantastically as a higher-scoring shootout. The pick: Additionally note that Houston has seen the total soar over the number in ten of 15 as a road favorite of six points or less, while Utah has seen the total go over the number in eight of 11 this year in revering a home loss vs. an opponent. This number is low, play the over. Rockets/Jazz OVER 10* play |
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04-21-19 | Sharks v. Golden Knights OVER 6.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 53 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: This has been a competitive back-and-forth series and I’m expecting a competitive back-and-forth contest here. Las Vegas has a chance to finish off this series here and now, but the Sharks took a decisive 5-2 win in Game 5 and clearly they won’t be going down without a fight today either. These are two very defensive minded clubs, but I believe we’ll see a very high-paced, wide-open affair today and I believe that’s going to help immensely in this total going over the number. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Jose has seen the total go over the number in 18 of 29 this year after a win by two goals or more, while Las Vegas has seen the total soar over in 13 of its last 21 home games when the total is set at six or higher. All signs point to a shootout. Play the over. VEGAS/Sharks OVER 10* play |
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04-21-19 | Braves v. Indians OVER 7.5 | Top | 11-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: Both games in yesterday’s double-header flew over the number, with the Tribe taking an 8-4 win in the first game and the Braves rallying late for an 8-7 win in the second. I like the Indians to bounce back in the rubber match tonight (as stated in my free play). So far Atlanta pitcher Max Fried has been exemplary, but I think he runs into a buzz saw here vs. this red hot Indians’ offense. He’ll also have his hands full with vs. his counterpart Shane Bieber. The pitchers: Fried, who is 2-0 with a 0.92 ERA who has so far thrown three straight strong outings, faces a difficult task throwing opposite Bieber, who is 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA. Bieber most recently gave up one run over six innings in a win over he M’s on Tuesday. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Atlanta has seen the total go over the number in five of its last seven on the road, while Cleveland has seen the total eclipse the posted number in five of its last six vs. southpaws. Despite these pitchers getting out to respective “hot” starts, I think these offenses continue to shine. Braves/Indians OVER 10* play |
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04-15-19 | Bruins v. Maple Leafs OVER 6 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 30 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: It’s Game 3 of the Best of 7 series and while the first two games have fallen “under” the number, I believe that the switch in venue and the overall situation will lead to a higher-scoring affair in Game 3. Boston comes in averaging 3.80 goals over its last ten games. The Bruins though have allowed 3.40 goals over that same stretch. Toronto will be wary about having a letdown here, as it’s 0-7 in its last seven off a win. The Leafs though are 23-17 at home this season, averaging 3.56 goals and allowing 3.00 goals. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston has seen the total go over the number in 14 of its last 24 after a win by two goals or more, while Toronto has seen the total go over in 18 of 29 vs. the divisional opponents already. This number is low, play the “over.” Maple Leafs/Bruins OVER 10* play |
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04-13-19 | Spurs v. Nuggets OVER 211 | Top | 101-96 | Loss | -101 | 41 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: These were two of the better defensive clubs in the league, but I expect this one to sneak “over” the number once it’s all said and done. The Spurs come in on top form having won 15 of their final 20 games. The Nuggets on the other hand dropped four of their final seven down the stretch. These teams are evenly matched and they go on to split their season series. The pick: While their four regular season games all went “under” the number, the numbers this time around suggest a higher-scoring shootout finally. As note that the Spurs have seen the total go “over” in 25 of 41 on the road already this season and in seven of their last ten in the first round of the playoffs, while Denver has seen the total soar “over” in seven of its last nine home games when the total in the contest is set between 209.5 and 211.5. This number is low, play the “over.” Spurs/Nuggets OVER 10* play |
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04-13-19 | Tigers v. Twins OVER 8 | 3-4 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
The set-up: The opener of this three-game set was snowed out yesterday, meaning these teams now play a shortened two-game series. While each of these starters has looked decent early, I think they take a step back today. The pitchers: The visitors hand the ball to Tyson Ross (1-1, 2.25 ERA), who enters off a 3-1 win over the toothless Royals. The home side goes with Michael Pineda (1-0, 2.00) who makes his third start for the Twins, picking up his first win over Philadelphia on Saturday. The pick: Note that Minnesota has scored 20 runs on 26 hits over three games before this latest break and there’s no reason not to think it won’t be able to carry that momentum over here. This number is just a little low in my opinion. Tigers/Twins OVER 9* play |
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04-12-19 | Golden Knights v. Sharks OVER 6.5 | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 19 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Sharks won Game 1 5-2 and I’m expecting another wide-open affair in Game 2. Overall Las Vegas finished 13th in the league in scoring with an average of 3.00 GPG, so I’m expecting a better offensive performance this time around from the desperate visiting side. The Sharks outshot the Knights 33-26 in Game 1 as they’re out to avenge a second round exit from the playoffs last year at the hands of the Golden Knights. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Las Vegas has seen the total go “over” the number in 23 of its last 41 road games when the total is 6 or higher, while San Jose has seen the total go “over” in 17 of 28 this season after a win by two goals or more. This one has “shootout” written all over it. Play the “over.” VEGAS/SJ Sharks OVER 9* play |
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04-11-19 | Indians v. Tigers OVER 7.5 | 4-0 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 5 m | Show | |
The set-up: While yesterday’s game fell under the total in the Tigers bounce back victory, all signs point to a higher-scoring slug-fest in the finale on Thursday afternoon in my opinion. The pitchers: The Indians send out Shane Bieber (0-0, 3.38 ERA), who gave up two runs off two hits with two walks over six innings in a win over the Jays on Friday. The home side counters with Spencer Turnbull (0-1, 4.09) who gave up three runs off six hits while striking out ten over six innings in a no-decision to the Royals on Thursday. So far Turnbull has one “dud” and one “gem” under his belt in 2019. The pick: The Tigers have won six of their last seven and they had ten hits off Cleveland starter Trevor Bauer yesterday, who had allowed only one hit over his first two starts combined. "We've been struggling offensively and we're just trying to get better game by game as an offense and stay within ourselves," Tigers manager Ron Gardenhire told reporters after the game. "I think some guys are starting to use the whole field, staying on balls, some really good two-strike at-bats. We're cutting down on our strikeouts a little bit and if we do that a little better we'll get a lot more hits." Indians/Tigers OVER 9* play |
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04-10-19 | Stars v. Predators OVER 5 | Top | 3-2 | Push | 0 | 16 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: I think these two hungry Western Conference foes push the pace from start to finish in this and I look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. Overall the Stars average 2.5 goals and allow 2.4, while Nashville averages 2.9 goals and it concedes 2.6. Ben Bishop is in net for the Stars and the Predators go with Pekka Rinne. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Dallas has seen the total go to “over” the number in three of four this year on the road when the total is five or less, while Nashville has seen the total fly “over” in six of its last eight after a three-game unbeaten streak. I expect these two normally defensive minded clubs to open things up in Game 1. Predators/Stars OVER |
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04-09-19 | Marlins v. Reds OVER 8 | 0-14 | Win | 100 | 26 h 28 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Reds are 1-8 to open the year, and the Marlins are 3-7. Two decent pitchers go head-to-head in this one, but I think these teams will easily combine to push this total over the total once it’s all said and done. The pitchers: The Fish go with Jose Urena (0-2, 10.38 ERA) who gave up five earned runs off seven hits and one walk over four innings in a loss to the Mets on Tuesday. Over 8.2 innings of work Urena has given up ten earned runs so far this year. The home side counters with Luis Castillo (0-1, 1.42) who has given up just two runs over his first 12.2 innings of work. Castillo though has perhaps been a bit “lucky” considering he’s walked seven and hit a batter over that small sample size. The pick: Take it for what you will as well by Miami has seen the total go “over” the number in 25 of its last 41 following a one run loss, while Cincinnati has seen the total go “over” in seven of its last eight off six straight losses vs. division rivals. This number is a little low, play the “over.” Marlins/Reds OVER 9* play |
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04-08-19 | Texas Tech v. Virginia UNDER 118 | Top | 77-85 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: Two of the best defensive teams in the nation go head to head here and I think that points will not surprisingly be at a premium in this one. Texas Tech has advanced by beating UNT 72-57, and then by posting impressive defensive performances over Buffalo, Michigan and high-flying Gonzaga. The Red Raiders then capped off their journey with the 61-51 win over Michigan State in the Final Four. Virginia was knocked out of the first round last year, but this season it continues to ride it’s No. 1 ranked defense. Virginia has navigated some close calls as well to get here, including over Gardner-Webb, Oklahoma, Oregon, Purdue and the thriller over Auburn with no time left on the clock. The pick: Take it for what you all as well, but Texas Tech has seen the total go “under” the number in seven of ten neutral four games already this year and in four of its last five when playing with one or less days rest, while Virginia has seen the total go “under” in 11 of 17 after a non-conference game and in not surprisingly 11 of its last 17 vs. good defensive teams which allow 64 points or less per contest. UVA/TTU UNDER 10* play |
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04-08-19 | Dodgers v. Cardinals OVER 8 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -102 | 26 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cards come in off a 4-1 home win over the Padres, while the Dodgers rolled to an impressive 12-6 win at Colorado. While Hyun-Jin Ryu has been excellent to start the year, his counterpart Miles Mikolas has been a train wreck. The pitchers: The Dodgers go with Hyun-Jin Ryu (2-0, 2.08 ERA) who gave up two runs off six hits with five strikeouts and no walks over seven innings in a win over the Giants on Tuesday. Over his first two starts he has 13 punch outs. The home side counters with Miles Mikolas (0-1, 7.20) who has uncharacteristically struggled to open the season. Over two starts he’s given up eight runs off 12 hits. Last year Mikolas was 18-4 with a 2.83 ERA, so clearly he’s struggling with command issues or something else right now. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA has seen the total go “over” in three of four vs. right-handed starters this year, while St. Louis has seen the total go “over” in seven of its last nine home games after holding its previous opponent to one or less runs in a victory. This number is low. Dodgers/Cards OVER 10* play |
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04-06-19 | Blackhawks v. Predators OVER 6 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 24 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: Chicago is coming off a 6-1 beatdown at home over the Stars and it plays with motivation here as well as it looks to somewhat spoil the Predators parade. Nashville is in control of its own destiny right now as it heads into the final game of the year. If the Predators win this game, then they win the Central Division. But if the Hawks can pull off the upset, then the Predators have to sweat out the Jets game going on tonight as well. If Nashville loses and Winnipeg wins, then the Jets will take the division. It’s a big game for the home side and I don’t expect it to sit back on its heels. With both teams pushing the pace, I look for this total to blast past the posted number sooner, rather than later. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago has seen the total go over in 21 of 33 vs. teams with winning records this year, while Nashville has seen the total go “over” the number in four of its last five vs. teams with losing records. For all the reasons listed above, play the “over.” Blackhawks/Predators OVER 10* play |
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04-04-19 | Lipscomb v. Texas UNDER 143 | Top | 66-81 | Loss | -109 | 24 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: Two hungry teams collide in the Championship Game of the NIT. The Bison come in off an impressive 71-64 win over high-flying Wichita State, while The Longhorns smashed No. 1 seed TCU 58-44. These two schools got to this point behind some extremely aggressive defensive play and I don’t expect anything to change here. Note that Lipscomb held the Shockers to just 35 percent shooting, while Texas held TCU to only 28 percent from the floor. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Lipscomb has seen the total go “under” the number in eight of ten already this season after three or more SU wins, while Texas has seen the total dip “under” in 16 of 24 as a favorite this year. This number is high, play the “under.” Texas/Lipscomb UNDER 10* play |
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04-04-19 | Royals v. Tigers OVER 7.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 18 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: Two teams not known for their offensive fire-power go head to head on Thursday afternoon. A couple of confirmed “gas cans” also square off on the mound though. I believe that Jake Junis and Spencer Turnbull get chased early and I look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. The pitchers: The Royals’ Junis (1-0, 4.76 ERA) earned a win despite not being at his best vs. the White Sox on Saturday, allowing three runs off six hits over five innings of work. Junis is in his third year and he finished 9-12 with a 4.37 ERA last season. The Tigers’ Turnbull (0-1, 5.40) gave up three runs off five hits and two walks over five innings in a loss to the Jays on Saturday. Last year he was 0-2 with a 6.06 ERA for the Tigers, including 0-1 with a 13.50 ERA at home. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but KC has seen the total go over in four of five vs. the division already this season, while Detroit has seen the total fly over in 16 of its last 25 as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. This number is a little low, play the “over.” Royals/Tigers OVER 10* play |
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04-03-19 | Senators v. Rangers UNDER 6 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 30 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams are going through the motions today as they each play out their respective seasons. While Ottawa is .500 at home, it’s only 10-27-2 on the road. New York is in rebuilding mode as well and it’s missing the playoffs for a second straight year. So far these teams have split a pair of games, so the only thing up for grabs would be the winner of the season series. Ottawa prevailed 3-0 in the most recent and I believe we’re going to see an identical final combined score here as well. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Rangers have seen the total go “under” in seven of their last nine home games in trying to revenge a road loss vs. an opponent in which they were shut out in. No fireworks here, as everything points to the under as the correct call. Rangers/Senators UNDER 10* play |
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04-02-19 | Nuggets v. Warriors OVER 221.5 | Top | 102-116 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: Two of the best in the West go head-to-head on Tuesday night and suffice it to say, I believe that points are going to be plentiful. Denver will be playing with a sense of desperation here as it’s lost three of its last five and it now sits a game behind the Warriors for top spot in the Conference. Overall the Nuggets average 110.9 PPG, while allowing 106.7. The Warriors average 117.7 PPG and they concede 111.5. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Denver has seen the total go “over” the number in in five of seven this season when playing with double revenge after two straight losses vs. an opponent, while Golden State has seen the total go “over” in five of seven this season off a home blowout win by 20 points or more. This number is low, play the “over.” Warriors/Nuggets OVER 10* play |
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04-02-19 | Texas v. TCU UNDER 138.5 | Top | 58-44 | Win | 100 | 32 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: It’s the semi finals of the NIT and I’m expecting a war until the final horn. Texas advanced by beating South Dakota State, Xavier and Colorado, while TCU got the better of Houston State, Nebraska and Creighton. The Longhorns and Horned Frogs are of course very familiar with each other. Note that TCU won both meetings in Big 12 action this year. Both games were low-scoring battles, with TCU winning the first meeting 65-61, followed by a 69-56 score in the second. Everything points to another low-scoring affair here in my opinion. Texas comes in off a stellar defensive performance over Colorado, winning 68-55 and holding the Buffs to just 32.7 percent shooting. TCU crushed Creighton 71-58, holding it to 39.2 percent from the floor. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Texas has seen the total go “under” the number in three of four neutral court games it’s played in already this year, while TCU has seen the total go “under” in eight of its last 12 following a home victory. This number is high, play the “under.” Texas/TCU UNDER 10* play |
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04-02-19 | Rockies v. Rays OVER 7 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: Two competent starters square off here, but I’m expecting a much more competitive game today after the Rays’ 7-1 victory on Monday. That was Tampa’s fourth straight win. The pitchers: The home side turns to Blake Snell (0-1, 7.50 ERA), who was rocked for six hits, including three homers over six innings in a 5-1 loss to the Astros in his 2019 opener. Colorado counters with Kyle Freeland (1-0, 1.29), who looked good in his first start after putting together a very solid 2018 as well. The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Colorado has seen the total go over the number in four of its last five on the road, while Tampa’s seen the total go over in seven of its last nine home games after holding its previous opponent to one or less runs in a victory. This number is low, play the “over.” Rockies/Rays OVER 10* play |
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04-01-19 | Hornets v. Jazz UNDER 218 | Top | 102-111 | Win | 100 | 27 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: The Hornets’ playoff hopes are fading fast after back-to-back losses, including to the Warriors just last night. I think that Kemba Walker and company come in predictably “gassed” here in the second game of the back-to-back. Utah will look to keep its sharp play vs. “lesser” competition going strong, as it comes in having won four straight over the Wizards, Lakers, Suns and Bulls. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up great for a lower-scoring affair. The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Charlotte has seen the total go “under” the number in six of eight already this year revenging a SU loss vs. an opponent as a home favorite, while Utah has seen the total go “under” in eight of its last 12 when playing with two days rest. This number is a little high, play the “under.” Hornets/Jazz UNDER 10* play |
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04-01-19 | White Sox v. Indians OVER 7.5 | 3-5 | Win | 106 | 23 h 57 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Indians have stumbled out of the gate to open 2019, thanks in part to a poor offense for the most part. The Tribe head home for their first game at Progressive Field in 2019 and I think it’ll be just what the doctor ordered to get things turned around at the plate for the home side. The White Sox lost 14 of 19 in this season series last year, so they won’t be lacking for motivation either. The pitchers are decent, but the overall situation lends itself to a higher-scoring slug-fest in my opinion. The pitchers: The White Sox turn to Ivan Nova, who was 11-14 with a 4.14 ERA in 2017 and 9-9 with a 4.19 ERA last year for the Pirates. Nova comes in off a decent spring, but I think he’ll have his hands full with this under-achieving and focused Indians’ line-up. Cleveland goes with Mike Clevinger, who was 12-6 with a 3.11 ERA in 2017 and 13-8 with a 3.02 ERA in 2018. Clevinger had a strong spring as well. The pick: As stated off the top, these starters are both solid, however as I also noted, the situation points to a higher-scoring affair in my opinion. Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago has seen the total go over the number in 30 of its last 50 as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while Cleveland has seen the total go over in 29 of its last 49 as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. Indians/White Sox OVER |
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03-31-19 | Rangers v. Flyers OVER 6 | 3-0 | Loss | -107 | 18 h 57 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Rangers won’t be in the postseason, but they remain competitive down the stretch, most recently posting a 4-2 home win over St. Louis. The Flyers come in motivated here after a 5-2 loss at Carolina. Philadelphia has to be liking its chances today as New York has gone just 12-26 on the road, averaging 2.58 goals and allowing 3.87 in those contests. Overall the Flyers are 19-20 at home, averaging 2.97 goals and allowing 3.26 in those contests. The pick: Neither team is going to be in the playoffs, but I’m expecting a faster paced, wide open affair between these still proud organizations. Take it for what you will as well, but New York has seen the total go “over” 11 of its last 18 in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent, while Philadelphia has seen the total go “over” in 14 of its last 23 vs. division opponents. This number is a little low, play the “over.” Flyers/Rangers OVER 9* play |
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03-30-19 | Blazers v. Pistons UNDER 215 | Top | 90-99 | Win | 100 | 25 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: Portland comes in off a big road win in Atlanta just last night and I have a hard time seeing the team mustering up the same energy in the second game of the back to back and at the very end of another long regular season. Detroit comes in off a 115-98 home win over Orlando as it continues to fight for playoff positioning as the season winds down. The home side will be out to dictate the pace tonight and take advantage of this road weary Blazers side. From a situational stand point, I absolutely believe that this one sets up great for a lower-scoring “under.” The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Portland has seen the total go under the number in 23 of its last 38 when playing against a team with a winning record, while Detroit has seen the total go under in 17 of 27 non-conference games. This number is a little high. Trail Blazers/Pistons UNDER 10* play |
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03-30-19 | Mets v. Nationals UNDER 7 | Top | 11-8 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 56 m | Show |
Selction: Mets/Nationals UNDER Analysis to come. 10* play |
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03-28-19 | Texas Tech v. Michigan OVER 126 | 63-44 | Loss | -115 | 77 h 39 m | Show | |
The set-up: Both teams easily destroyed their first two opponents. I expect a battle until the end between these evenly matched teams. I also believe that this number is much too low. The Red Raiders most recently destroyed Buffalo 78-58, as all five starters scored in double digits. Overall the Red Raiders average 73.2 PPG, while allowing only 59.2. Michigan though is back in the Sweet 16 for a third straight season. The Wolverines average 78.2 PPG, while allowing only 58.2. The pick: Two of the best defensive teams in the nation, but note that the Red Raiders have seen the total go “over” in six of their last eight following a a SU win, while the Wolverines have seen the total go “over” five of their last seven after holding their previous opponent to 60 points or less. This number is a little low, play the “over.” Michigan/Texas Tech Over 9* play |
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03-28-19 | Mets v. Nationals UNDER 7 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 31 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: Two teams which hope to be in the postseason collide in this National League contest on Thursday afternoon and with their respective “aces” getting the call, everything points to a low-scoring pitchers duel in my opinion. The pitchers: Jacob deGrom gets the call for New York and last year he finished 10-9 with a 1.70 ERA. deGrom just signed a five-year 137.5 million dollar contract on Tuesday. Max Scherzer gets the nod for the home side. Scherzer was 16-6 with a 2.51 ERA in 2017 and 18-7 with a 2.53 ERA in 2018. Scherzer struck out 12 in his final spring tune-up on Friday. The pick: Throw the stats out the window on Opening Day. I expect these two hungry Cy Young winners to “steal the show” and to battle deep into the latter frames. Nationals/Mets UNDER 10* play |
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03-27-19 | Pacers v. Thunder OVER 215.5 | Top | 99-107 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: Indiana comes in off a 124-88 win over Denver on Sunday, breaking a four-game slide. The Pacers will look to duplicate that performance here in this difficult road venue. The Thunder are out to atone for a 115-103 loss in Memphis in their latest outing. Indiana rallied from behind to knock off OKC 108-106 at home two weeks ago, so the home side also plays with revenge. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up fantastically as a faster paced, wide open shootout. The pick: Note as well though that Indiana has seen the total go “over” the number in 11 of 18 after scoring 115 points or more this season, while OKC has seen the total go “over” in nine of its last 13 in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. This number is low, play the “over.” 10* play |
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03-26-19 | Rockets v. Bucks OVER 227 | Top | 94-108 | Loss | -106 | 24 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: I don’t expect either of these conference leaders to give an inch tonight. Houston has won five of six, including back-to-back victories over the Pelicans and Spurs, while the Bucks come in off back-to-back wins as well over the Cavs and Heat. Note that Houston was without point guard Chris Paul when it lost to the Bucks at home in January, setting up the revenge game for the visitors tonight. From a situational stand point, I absolutely believe this sets up as more of a “run-and-gun” shootout than a slower-paced “chess match.” The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Houston has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of nine this season off a win vs. a division rival, while Milwaukee has seen the total go “over” in seven of ten this year after two straight blowout wins by 15 points or more. With each team pushing the pace from start to finish, I expect this total to fly “over” sooner, rather than later. 10* play |
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03-24-19 | Blue Jackets v. Canucks OVER 6 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -120 | 34 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: Vancouver won’t be playing in the post-season, but it won’t be going down without a fight here. The Canucks have won three of their last four games, remaining competitive despite an off-season of golf looming just a couple of weeks away. Columbus can’t take anything for granted either, as it’s fallen three points back of the final Wild Card spot in the West. I’m expecting both teams to push the pace of this one from start to finish and a faster paced game = more shots and more shots = more goals. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Columbus has seen the total go “over” the number in 13 of its last 19 after a loss by two goals or more in its previous game, while Vancouver has seen the total fly “over” in four of its last six vs. teams with winning records. 10* play |
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03-23-19 | Heat v. Wizards UNDER 221.5 | 113-108 | Win | 100 | 24 h 48 m | Show | |
The set-up: Miami comes in “dog tired” here after its loss in Milwaukee just last night. Washington’s playoff hopes took another hit with its 113-108 home loss to Denver on Thursday. The Heat have gone 2-1 so far in this series. But Miami is playing the fourth game of a four game trip, including the second in two nights. The last thing the Heat want to do is to turn tonight’s contest into a “track meet.” Miami is 5-5 in the second game of back-to-back situational this year, averaging 109.8 points and conceding 107.1 in those contests. The Wizards enter having lost three straight. Over their last ten game they’re 4-6, allowing 117.4 points during that stretch. The pick: However note that the Wizards have seen the total go “under” the number in four of five already this year off a cover where the team lost the game SU as an underdog. Additionally note that Miami has seen the total go “under” in 14 of its last 22 vs. good offensive teams which score 106 plus points per contest. This number is high, play the “under.” 10* play |
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03-23-19 | Blackhawks v. Avalanche OVER 6.5 | 2-4 | Loss | -123 | 23 h 24 m | Show | |
The set-up: Chicago has been on fire in the second half and it finds itself sitting at one game over .500. However the Hawks will be desperate to break a two-game slide and to gain some precious ground with limited time left on the equally as hungry Avs. The Avs are currently tied with the Coyotes for eighth spot, so they can ill afford to take the foot off the gas here either. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up great as more of a wide open shootout, than a slower-paced defensive battle. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago has seen the total go “over” the number in 14 of 19 this year trying to revenge a home loss vs. an opponent, while Colorado has seen the total go “over” in all five games that it’s played in this season after playing to three or more consecutive “unders.” This number is low, play the “over.” 9* play |
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03-23-19 | Maryland v. LSU OVER 145 | Top | 67-69 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams “survived” their opening rounds and neither can be ver happy with they it performed. Neither covered the spread. The Terrapins advanced with a 79-77 win over Belmont, having to play “catch up” the entire game after falling behind by 13 early, while LSU held on for a 79-75 victory over Yale. Maryland averages 71.6 PPG and it allows 65.4, while LSU averages 81.3 PPG, while allowing 73.1. However, after both teams’ lacklustre efforts in the first rounds, I’m expecting each to push the pace from start to finish in Round 2. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Maryland has seen the total go “over” in seven of its last ten when playing with one or less days rest, while LSU has seen the total fly “over” in 15 of its last 20 as a neutral four favorite of six points or less or pick. This number is low, play the “over.” 10* play |
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03-21-19 | Northeastern v. Kansas UNDER 145 | 53-87 | Win | 100 | 77 h 35 m | Show | |
The set-up: I’m expecting a defensive battle here. Northeastern won’t be going down without a fight today after finishing 23-10 this season. The Huskies have a starting five of upperclassmen, led by Vas Pusica and Jordan Roland. The Jayhawks have a lot to prove as well after their string of regular season conference champion finished this year after 15 seasons. Kansas had to deal with significant injuries (center Udoka Azubuike lost mid-season), but it still finished 25-9. The Jayhawks are stingy defensively and I think they’ll be able to make the adjustments to counter the Huskies three-point oriented offensive attack. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Northeastern has seen the total go “under” the number in eight of its last 12 neutral court games, while Kansas has seen the total dip “under” in six of its last nine neutral site games. I’m expecting a slower-paced defensive battle. Play the “under.” 9* play |
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03-21-19 | Mariners v. A's OVER 9 | Top | 5-4 | Push | 0 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: Seattle won 9-7 in the 2019 season opener in Japan early yesterday morning. Domingo Santa delivered a grand slam in the victory. Both teams bats looked great, including the A’s Khris Davis, who led MLB with 48 home runs last year, Matt Chapman and Stephen Piscotty who all went yard, and the Mariners got balanced hitting from Tim Beckham and newcomer Edwin Encarnacion, who scored twice. The pitchers: Mariners go with LHP Yusei Kikuchi, as the 27 year old makes his MLB debut in his home country. The A’s hand the ball to Marco Estrada, who steadily declined with the Blue Jays over the last three years before posting a career worst 7-14, 5.64 ERA record. The 35 year old isn’t getting any younger, as he had difficulties with his hip and back all year in 2018. The pick: I think these starters get chased early and I look for these hard-hitting offense to put a plethora of points on the board once it’s all said and done. Play the “over.” 10* play |
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03-20-19 | Lightning v. Capitals UNDER 6.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: Let’s face it, it wouldn’t be difficult to write a convincing argument for this total to “over” or “under” the number. Both teams possess some of the most dangerous offensive talent on the planet. But each side also sports some of the best goaltending in the league as well. These are two of the top teams in the East and Tampa just beat the Capitals 6-3 at home last week in a “barn burner.” Suffice it to say, with the shift in venue, I’m expecting a much more defensive affair this time around. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Washington has seen the total go “under” the number in 11 of its last 14 in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent in which it gave up six or more goals in and in which it lost by two or more goals in. This number is high, play the “under.” 10* play |
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03-19-19 | Pacers v. Clippers UNDER 219 | Top | 109-115 | Loss | -107 | 29 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: The Clippers come in off a last second win over the Nets on Sunday, while the Pacers come in off a listless 106-98 setback in Portland just last night. Indiana looked decent defensively in last night’s loss, but the continued absence of offensive star Victor Oladipo is clearly starting to take its toll on the offensive side of things. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Indiana has seen the total go “under” the number in seven of its last nine after scoring 100 points or less in a loss in the first game of a back-to-back scenario, while LA has seen the total go “under” in four of its last five vs. teams with winning SU records. This number is a little high, play the “under.” 10* play |
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03-19-19 | Fairleigh Dickinson v. Prairie View A&M UNDER 150 | 82-76 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 57 m | Show | |
The set-up: The winner of this will move on to meet No. 1 Gonzaga. I’m expecting a defensive affair. Prairie Vie A&M comes in off a win over Texas Southern in the SWAC Tournament title game on Saturday, while Farleigh Dickinson won 85-76 over Saint Francis in the NEC Tournament title game. The Panthers average 75 PPG and they allow 72.5. The Knights average 75.4 PPG and they allow only 71.3. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Farleigh Dickinson has seen the total go “under” the number in seven of its last ten off a win vs. a conference rival, while Prairie View has seen the total go “under” in three of four this season after allowing 85 points or more. This number is high, play the “under.” 8* play |
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03-17-19 | Texas-Arlington v. Georgia State UNDER 138.5 | Top | 64-73 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: Texas Arlington is off a 67-58 win over Georgia Southern, while Georgia State won 59-46 over Texas State to advance. The Panthers won both regular season meetings over the Mavericks. Each team comes in off a lower-scoring victory and I’m expecting a similar battle here as well. The Mavericks held the Eagles to just 36.7 percent shooting last tie out. UTA needed its defense to step up though, as the offense connected on just 39.7 percent of its chances in the victory. Overall UTA has averaged 69.4 PPG and allowed 69.7. Georgia State averages 77.2 PG and it allows 73.2. During league play though the Panthers have averaged 76.5 PPG and they allow 72.4. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but UTA has seen the total go “under” the number in seven of its last nine after allowing 60 points or less in its previous game, while Georgia State has seen the total go “under” in eight of its last 11 after allowing 48 points or less in its previous outing. This number is high, play the “under.” 10* play |
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03-16-19 | Florida v. Auburn UNDER 135 | 62-65 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
The set-up: Florida upset LSU 76-73 last night to advance to the semi-final of the SEC. The Gators have now punched their ticket to the NCAA Tournament. Fatigue becomes a factor for both teams at this point though and I believe this will effect the overall scoring pace this afternoon. The Gators are out to avenge a 76-62 loss at Auburn in the lone meeting between the schools this year. Auburn beat Missouri to advance, getting five 3-pointers from Bryce Brown. While Florida struggled from the perimeter defense in the first meeting, the Gators have come a long way since then. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Auburn has seen the total go “under” in seven of its last ten neutral site games and in seven of its last ten when playing the role of favorite, while Florida has seen the total go “under” in six of its last seven neutral site games. I’m expecting a war and for this one to fall “under” once it’s all said and done. 9* play |
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03-14-19 | Lakers v. Raptors OVER 231 | 98-111 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 46 m | Show | |
The set-up: Two teams hungry for victories collide here. Toronto would love nothing more than to “show up” King James after taking so many beatdowns when he played for the Cavaliers over the years. The Lakers are off a big win over the Bulls on the road and they won’t be going down without a fight here either. With Toronto looking to embarrass James and run up the score, and with the visitors needing to match pace, I do indeed think that from an overall situational stand point, that this one sets up beautifully as a higher-scoring shootout. The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but LA has seen the total go “over” the number in four of its last five trying to revenge a home loss vs. an opponent of ten or more points, while Toronto has seen the total fly over in three of its last four off a road loss by ten points or more. For all the reasons listed above, play the “over.” 8* play |
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03-13-19 | Blackhawks v. Maple Leafs OVER 7 | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 23 h 44 m | Show | |
The set-up: Two teams which push the pace from the opening face off until the final horn collide on Wednesday night and suffice it to say, I believe that goals will be plentiful. The Hawks come in off a 7-1 home win over Arizona, while the Leafs enter off a 6-2 home loss to Tampa. Chicago still has a shot at the postseason, so expect it to continue to push its frantic pace here. Barring a major disaster Toronto will be firmly in the playoffs as well, but after its lacklustre performance last time out, I’m expecting a much more concerted effort here. From a situational stand point, I definitely think this one sets up as a high-scoring “shootout.” The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Chicago has seen the total go “over” the number in 19 of 24 this season after scoring four or more goals in its previous game, while Toronto has seen the total go “over” in 14 of 20 this season following a divisional contest. This number is low, play the “over.” 5* play |
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03-13-19 | Miami-FL v. Virginia Tech UNDER 137.5 | 56-71 | Win | 100 | 18 h 5 m | Show | |
The set-up: It’s round two of the ACC. Miami comes in off a high-scoring victory over Wake Forest just last night. The Hurricanes are better on the defensive end of things and the last thing they’ll want to do is to turn this one into a “track meet” with the rested Hokies. VT enters after an opening bye by finishing 12-6 in conference play. VT beat Miami Florida 84-70 to finish the regular season just last week, but all signs point to a much more defensive affair this time around in my opinion. From a situational stand point, everything definitely points to the lower number as the correct call. The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Miami has seen the total go “under” the number in 12 of its last 16 neural site games, while VT has seen the total dip “under” in seven of its last ten after scoring 80 points or more in its previous outing. This number is high, play the “under.” 6* play |
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03-12-19 | Wake Forest v. Miami-FL UNDER 141.5 | Top | 71-79 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams enter off poor campaigns. The Demon Deacons were 4-14 in ACC action, while Miami finished 5-13 in conference play. Last year both teams were ousted from the Conference tournament after the first game, but this season one of the two will survive to see the next round. These teams played two games and they split those, with one going “over” and the other going “under.” But during Wake Forest’s three-game losing skid, its failed to score 60 points, most recently falling 65-57 to FSU. The Hurricanes closed out the regular season with an 84-70 loss to VT. Two inconsistent, yet hungry teams collide and I believe that this will help in resulting in a tighter, lower-scoring defensive battle. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Wake Forest has seen the total go “under” the number in 13 of its last 19 as an underdog, while Miami Florida has seen the total go “under” in nine of its last 13 as a neutral court favorite or pick. This number is high, play the “under.” 10* play |
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03-11-19 | Kings v. Wizards UNDER 241.5 | Top | 115-121 | Win | 100 | 24 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams can still score a lot of points and this total can stay below this sky-high number, and that’s exactly what I expect to see. This number is just a tad high in my estimation. The Kings come in off a hard-fought 102-94 road win over New York, while Washington fell 135-130 in OT at Minnesota on Saturday. Note that these teams played in Sacramento on October 26th and the Kings posted the 116-112 victory. I’m expecting a similar final combined score here as well. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Kings have seen the total go “under” the number in eight of 11 already this year as a road underdog of six points or less, while Washington has seen the total go “under” in seven of its last ten off a road cover where the team lost SU as an underdog. This number is high, play the “under.” 10* play |
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03-09-19 | Michigan v. Michigan State OVER 135.5 | 63-75 | Win | 100 | 14 h 57 m | Show | |
The set-up: This is a big game, as it’ll play a part in deciding first place in the conference standings. Both teams are expected to make deep runs into the NCAA tournament and each has a legitimate shot at winning the conference tournament despite the result of tonight’s contest. From a situational stand point, I absolutely believe this one sets up great as a higher-scoring shootout, rather than a lower-scoring defensive battle. The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Michigan has seen the total go “over” the number in 12 of its last 18 as an underdog, while MSU has seen the totla go “over” in seven of its last ten home games when the total was set between 134 and 140. This number is low, play the “over.” 9* play |
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03-09-19 | Duke v. North Carolina OVER 166 | Top | 70-79 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a big game. The Blue Devils will be without Zion Williamson in this one, but they’re out for revenge after falling to UNC earlier in the year. UNC won’t be rolling over obviously as it comes in on top form having won six straight. Despite what happens in this one, each is expected to make a deep run in the upcoming tournament and both have a legitimate shot at winning the upcoming conference tournament. From a situational stand point, I absolutely believe this one sets up great as a classic high-scoring “shootout.” The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Duke has seen the total go over the number in eight of its last ten as an underdog (including in both games this season,) while UNC has seen the total soar “over” in three of its last four as a home favorite of six points or less or pick. This number is a little low, play the “over.” 10* play |
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03-08-19 | Nuggets v. Warriors OVER 233 | Top | 105-122 | Loss | -106 | 26 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: Denver broke a three-game slide with a win over the Lakers and it plays with revenge here after the Warriors drilled them at home earlier in the season. Denver catches the defending champs scuffling, as they’ve dropped five of their last eight, including an embarrassing blowout loss to the struggling Celtics on their own floor, a game in which they posted a measly 95 points. The Warriors on the ropes, but if there’s on thing this team has done over the years is show it’s mettle when up against adversity. And here’s the perfect test and opponent to do that against. The Nuggets will be pushing the pace from start to finish as they look to avenge the earlier loss as well. So from an overall “situational” stand point, in my professional opinion this one absolutely sets up great as a higher-scoring affair. The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Denver has seen the total go “over” the number in nine of its last 11 when trying to revenge a home loss vs. an opponent of ten points or more, while GS has seen the total fly “over” in both games that it’s played in this year after playing to three or more consecutive “unders.” This number is low, play the “over.” 10* play |
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03-07-19 | UL - Lafayette v. Arkansas-Little Rock UNDER 156 | 77-72 | Win | 100 | 21 h 28 m | Show | |
The set-up: Both teams come in highly motivated. I think this sense of intensity and competition will lead to a lower-scoring affair. UL Lafayette is out to break a three-way tie for fifth place in the Sun Belt, while Little Rock is out to avenge a loss in the reverse fixture. From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up well as more of a lower-scoring defensive war. The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but UL Lafayette has seen the total go “under” the number in both games it’s played in this season off a home loss vs. a conference rival, while Little Rock has seen the total go “under” in eight of its last ten as a home underdog of six points or less or pick. This number is high, play the “under.” 9* play |
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03-06-19 | Flames v. Golden Knights OVER 6 | 1-2 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 42 m | Show | |
The set-up: Calgary comes in having lost three of its last four. It plays with revenge here though after the Knights pulled off a 2-0 win in Alberta in their most recent matchup. The Knights won’t be rolling over though as they look to gain ground in the Pacific. I think we’ll see a much more wide open affair here in Sin City as each of these hungry teams will be out to push the pace from start to finish. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Calgary has seen the total go “over” in 19 of 29 this year in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent, while Las Vegas has seen the total soar “over” in 11 of 16 home games this year when the total is set at 6 or higher. This number is low, play the “over.” 9* play |
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03-05-19 | Rockets v. Raptors OVER 226.5 | Top | 107-95 | Loss | -101 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: Houston is one of the hottest teams in the West and Toronto is one of the hottest teams in the East. These two surging non-conference opponents go head-to-head North of the border on Tuesday night and in my opinion, points will be plentiful. The Rockets come in having won five straight, most recently destroying Boston 115-104 on the road. The Raptors had won nine of ten before an OT loss in Detroit in their latest action. Houston averages 113.4 PPG and it allows 111.1. The Raptors average 114.2 PPG and they allow 108.9. The pick: Take it for what you as well, but Houston has seen the total go “over” the number in 15 of its last 20 non-conference games, while Toronto has seen the total go “over” in eight of its last 11 revenging a SU loss vs. an opponent when it was the fav. This number is low, play the “over.” 10* play |
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03-05-19 | North Carolina v. Boston College OVER 156.5 | 79-66 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 16 m | Show | |
The set-up: Two teams hungry for wins collide and I believe that points will be plentiful. UNC is tied with Virginia for the conference lead. The Tar Heels enter on top form having won five straight. Overall UNC averages 87.1 points, while allowing 73.3. The Eagle are in tenth spot in the conference, but they won’t be going down without a fight today as they look to pull off the upset and to play spoiler. Overall the Eagles average 71.9 PPG and they allow 72.3. The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but UNC has seen the total go “over” the number in four of five this season off a no-cover where the team won SU as a favorite, while BC has seen the total soar “over” in nine of its last 12 as an underdog. This number is low, play the “over.” 9* play |
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03-04-19 | Oilers v. Sabres OVER 6 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: Two teams which would have to run the board to make the playoffs collide in this non-conference matchup on Monday night. While that’s clearly not going to happen, each remains competitive and I believe that trend carries over here and contributes to a higher-scoring affair. The Oilers off a 4-0 road win over Columbus. After losing 11 of 12 the Oilers have won four of five. Oilers’ goaltender Mikko Koskinen is just 8-12 with a 3.07 GAA on the road. Buffalo enters off a 5-2 road loss in Toronto. The Sabres are 13-27 in their last 40 games. Buffalo averages 3.13 goals and allows 3.03 at home this year. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Edmonton has seen the total go “over” the number in three of four after shutting out its opponent in its previous game, while Buffalo has seen the total go “over” in 11 of its last 16 after a loss by two goals or more in its previous outing. This number is low, play the “over.” 10* play |
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03-03-19 | Rockets v. Celtics OVER 225.5 | Top | 115-104 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: Two teams hungry for victories collide in this high-profile non-conference matchup on Sunday afternoon and in my opinion, points are going to be plentiful. The Rockets come in off a 121-118 home win over Miami, while Boston broke a four-game losing streak with a 107-96 home win over Washington. The Rockets average 113.4 PPG and they allow 111.2. The C’s average 112.1 PPG and they allow 106.6. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Houston has seen the total go “over” the number in 15 of its last 20 non-conference games, while Boston has seen the total go “over” in 20 of its last 33 at home and in 14 of its last 20 non-conference games. With each team expected to push the pace, I look for this one to fly “over” sooner, rather than later. 10* play |
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03-02-19 | Kentucky v. Tennessee OVER 141 | 52-71 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 56 m | Show | |
The set-up: To say this is a big game would be a big understatement. These teams are tied for first place (along with LSU as well) in the SEC right now. Kentucky comes in off a 70-66 win over Arkansas, while Tennessee scored the 73-71 road win over Ole Miss. The home side plays with revenge here though after falling 83-69 in the reverse fixture on February 16th. From an overall situational stand point, this one definitely sets up as more of a high-scoring shootout, rather than a slower-paced defensive oriented “chess match.” The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Kentucky has seen the total go over the number in five of its last seven as a road underdog or pick, while Tennessee has seen the total go over in three of its last four revenging a loss vs. an opponent that scored 85 or more points. This number is low, play the “over.” 9* play |
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03-02-19 | LSU v. Alabama OVER 148.5 | 74-69 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 58 m | Show | |
The set-up: Both teams are hungry for a victory and each will be pushing the pace. The Tigers are tied atop the SEC standing with Kentucky and Tennessee (who play each other today), while Alabama comes in having won two straight. LSU averages 82.1 PPG and it allows 73.4. The Tide though won’t be going down without a fight here either, as this one arguably means even more to them. Alabama is on the bubble with a 17-11 record this year. The Tide average 73.3 PPG and they allow 71.5. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but LSU has seen the total go “over” the number in five of eight on the road already this year and in ten of 15 vs. the conference, while Alabama has seen the total go “over” in nine of 13 at home. This number is low, play the “over.” 9* play |
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02-27-19 | Blazers v. Celtics OVER 226 | 97-92 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
The set-up: No need to overthink this one. I think the Pacers get caught looking past their lowly non-conference opponent here. After winning two straight the Pacers were dumped by a desperate Pistons team last time out. The Mavericks don’t have that same luxury though, as they’ve lost five straight, most recently to the Clippers on Monday. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up great for the home side. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Indiana is just 13-16 ATS on the road this year, while Dallas is 10-3 ATS as a home underdog. Grab the points. 8* play |
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02-27-19 | Wizards v. Nets UNDER 236.5 | Top | 125-116 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: Washington comes to town looking to bounce back off a 119-112 home loss to Indiana, while Brooklyn comes in off an impressive 101-85 home win over the Spurs. I think the home side can carry that defensive momentum over here. The Wizards are out to atone for a shoddy defensive performance, so from a situational stand point, I think this one absolutely sets up as a lower-scoring defensive battle. The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Washington has seen the total go “under” the number in three of four already this year when playing with three or more days rest, while Brooklyn has seen the total go “under” in nine of its last 12 when the total in the contest is greater than or equal to 230. Play the “under.” 10* play |
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02-24-19 | Clippers v. Nuggets UNDER 232 | Top | 96-123 | Win | 100 | 19 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: Two of the top teams in the West get ready to battle and I think that points will be at a premium in the end. The Clippers enter off a 112-106 road win over Memphis, while Denver won 114-104 in Dallas on Friday. Denver has won two of three meetings between the clubs already this year, including a 121-100 home win in the most recent. I’m expecting another hard-fought and similar final combined score here as well. From situational and recent history stand points, I absolutely feel that this one sets up as more of a defensive affair this evening. The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but LA has already seen the total go “under” the number in 13 of its last 19 as a road underdog, while Denver has seen the total go “under” in nine of its last 12 after scoring 110 points or more in two straight games. This number is high, play the “under.” 10* play |
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02-23-19 | Rockets v. Warriors OVER 235 | 118-112 | Loss | -107 | 27 h 57 m | Show | |
The set-up: Two of the best in the league go head to head here. There is no love loss between these teams. There’s no lack of offensive talent either. If you are wagering on this game, then the story lines and cast of characters are well known (even to the most casual NBA fan, the Rockets and Warriors are obviously two of the most talked about teams in the league), so there’s no need to break this one down on any player vs. player stand point. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but the “over” is 10-4 in the Warriors last 14 games vs. the Western conference and in four of their last five following an ATS loss, while Houston has seen the total go “over” in both games it’s played in this season in which it’s been a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points. This number is low, play the “over.” 8* play |
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02-23-19 | Tennessee v. LSU UNDER 157.5 | 80-82 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 6 m | Show | |
The set-up: Two heavyweights in the SEC collide on Saturday afternoon and I believe that points will be at a premium. The Vols posted a 58-46 home win over Vandy in their latest action, while the Tigers come in hungry after falling 82-77 at home to Florida. The home side plays with revenge as well after falling 84-61 at Tennessee last year. This is a big game, as Tennessee holds just a one game lead over LSU for the conference lead. Tennessee is 6-1 on the road and it averages 83.7 PPG and it allows 67.4. LSU is 12-2 at home and it averages 82.7 PPG and it allows 73.8. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but the Vols have seen the total go “under” in four of their last five as a road dog of three points or less or pick, while LSU has seen the total go “under” in nine of its last 15 after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games. This number is a little high, play the “under.” 9* play |
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02-22-19 | Jets v. Golden Knights OVER 6.5 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 102 | 26 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: There are two super hungry teams. The Jets come in having lost three straight. Winnipeg’s grip on the No. 1 spot in the Central is now down to a single game over Nashville. The Jets have been lacking a scoring punch over the last month, but Winnipeg is finally getting healthier after it was hit hard by a flu bug. The Knights also come in hungry for a win. Vegas has lost nine of its last 12. The Knights are in the sixth spot in the West, but a lack of offense has also been a concern for Las Vegas since the All Star break. The pick: With both teams looking to break slumps and out to push the pace, this one definitely sets up as more of a “high scoring shootout” than a slower-paced defensive affair in my opinion. But take it for what you will as well, but Winnipeg has seen the total go “over” the number in 10 of its last 14 following a divisional contest, while Vegas has seen the total go “over” in nine of 13 already this season in all home games there the total is set at six or higher. This number is low, play the “over.” 10* play |
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02-22-19 | Clippers v. Grizzlies UNDER 214 | 112-106 | Loss | -106 | 24 h 30 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Grizzlies enter the second half without big man Marc Gasol. That trade happened a month ago, but the new look home side will be looking to play spoiler here. The Clippers smashed the Suns 134-107 in their last game before the All Star break. LA comes in with a legitimate shot at making the playoffs, currently in the eight spot. LA averages 111.0 PPG and it concedes 110.2. The Grizz lost 122-110 in Chicago in their final game before the All Star break. Memphis averages 103.9 PPG and it allows 106.9. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA has seen the total go “under” the number in 15 of 24 this year in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent, while Memphis has seen the total go “under” in six of its last eight when playing with three or more days rest. I think each team comes out a little flat to open the second half. When taking into account the rest of the above info, all signs do indeed point to the “under” as the correct call here. 8* play |
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02-20-19 | Bruins v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: Two non-conference teams collides in the dessert on Wednesday night. Both teams are “hungry” though. Boston has won six in a row, including an impressive 6-5 OT win over San Jose. The Bruins will show no signs of slowing down here either in my opinion vs. this “on again, off again” Knights team. The home side won’t be lacking for motivation though as it’s lost eight of its last 11. Las Vegas is holding down the sixth spot in the Western Conference, but clearly it has to get its act together down the stretch. The pick: The Knights lost 4-1 in Boston earlier in the year, so they also play with the added incentive of revenge tonight. Take it for what you will as well, but Boston has already seen the total go “over” the number in six of nine this year following a three games or longer unbeaten streak, while Las Vegas has seen the total go “over” in 16 of its last 25 after scoring one goal or less in its previous outing. This number is low, play the “over.” 10* play |
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02-18-19 | Bruins v. Sharks OVER 6 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: Two of the best teams in their respective conferences collide on the West Coast on Monday night and in my opinion, goals are going to be plentiful. Boston is in a tight race for second place in the East behind Tampa. The Bruins are looking to sweep the California portion of their road trip with another victory here after dispatching the Kings 4-2 on Saturday. Keep your eyes on Boston’s Brad Marchand, who has four goals and 13 assists over his last ten games (he also has four goals and three assists in 12 lifetime match ups vs. the Sharks.) San Jose can’t afford to take the foot off the gas either as its tied atop the Pacific with Calgary. The Sharks also hit the road for a four game Eastern swing immediately after this one, making tonight’s contest that much more important. From a “situational” stand point, this one absolutely sets up as a high-scoring shootout in my opinion. The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Boston has seen the total go “over” the number in five of its last six following a three games or more unbeaten streak, while San Jose has seen the total go “over” in 15 of its last 21 non-conference games. This number is low, play the “over.” 10* play |
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02-16-19 | Florida State v. Georgia Tech OVER 131.5 | 69-47 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 43 m | Show | |
The set-up: Florida State will be pushing the pace as it looks to extend its win streak to seven games this afternoon. The Yellow Jackets will be desperate here and they’ll have to match pace with the visitors as they look to pull off the upset and snap a six-game losing streak at the same time. In my opinion, this one sets up as more of a “run and gun shootout,” than a slower-paced defensive affair where each side sets up a half four offense. The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but FSU has seen the total go “over” the number in six of its last nine off three straight victories vs. conference rivals, while GT has seen the total go “over” in four of its last five after two or more straight losses on the road. This number is low, play the “over.” 9* play |
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02-14-19 | Oakland v. Green Bay UNDER 166 | 54-66 | Win | 100 | 25 h 53 m | Show | |
The set-up: The home side is looking to bounce back after falling to Youngstown State in its latest action. Oakland started the season slow, but it’s looked better over the last month. The Golden Grizzlies though are also looking to break a two game slide. Overall Oakland averages 76.3 PPG and it allows 77.6. Despite a loss in their last game though, the Phoenix are aiming for a third victory in four outings tonight. The Phoenix average 83.4 PPG, and they allow 82.8. The pick: Normally these are two higher-scoring teams that don’t put a lot of credit on the defensive side of things, but each enters “hungry” and I think this competitiveness lends itself to more of a defensive affair finally. And take it for what you will as well, but Oakland has seen the total go “under” the number in nine of 14 on the road, while Green Bay has seen the total dip “under” in four of its last five as a home favorite of three points or less or pick. This number is high, play the “under.” 8* play |
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02-13-19 | Canucks v. Ducks OVER 5.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: Vancouver enters off a 7-2 home loss to the Sharks, while the Ducks are off a 6-2 road loss in Philly. These are two teams desperate for victories and with each expected to push the pace from start to finish, I look for this total to blast past the number sooner, rather than later. Vancouver is 12-18 on the road, averaging 2.67 goals and allowing 3.17 in those contests. Canucks’ goaltender Jacob Markstrom is 9-12 on the road with a 2.93 GAA. After losing four of its last five, clearly Vancouver won’t be holding anything back today. And neither will Anaheim, which has lost seven straight, getting outscored 37-8 in the process. Ducks’ net minder John Gibson is 9-13 with a 2.83 GAA at home. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Vancouver has seen the total go “over” the number in eight of its last 12 vs. the division, while Anaheim has seen the total go “over” in nine of its last 13 when playing with three or more days rest. For all the reasons listed above, play the “over.” 10* play |
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02-12-19 | Islanders v. Sabres UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 28 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: I think goals will be at a premium tonight between these two hungry clubs. New York comes to town off a 2-1 home win over Minnesota, while Buffalo is in bounce back mode after its 3-1 home loss to Winnipeg. Isles’ net minder Robin Lehner is 2-3 with a 2.15 GAA lifetime vs. the Sabres. New York is 16-11 on the road, averaging only 2.74 goals in those games, but allowing only 2.44. Buffalo is 16-12 at home, averaging 3.07 goals and allowing 3.04 in those contests. Sabres’ goalie Carter Hutton is so far 10-8 with a 2.48 GAA at home. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Isles have already seen the total go “under” the number in seven of their last ten following a three-games unbeaten streak, while the Sabres have seen the total go “under” in five of seven after playing three consecutive home games. This number is high, play the “under.” 8* play |
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02-11-19 | Wizards v. Pistons UNDER 220 | Top | 112-121 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: The Wizards are off a high-scoring 134-125 road win over Chicago on Saturday, while Detroit enters off a home and home sweep of the Knicks, most recently pulling away for the 120-103 victory on Friday. So far these teams have split two meetings this year, with Washington winning the last 101-87. These are two hungry teams who haven’t thrown in the towel and I believe this competitiveness will help in driving this total below the posted number. In my opinion, this one has the feel of a very low-scoring defensive battle, rather than a wide open shootout. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Washington has seen the total go “under” the number in four of five already this year after scoring 130 or more points in its previous game, while Detroit has seen the total go “under” in 19 of 30 in revenging a loss vs. an opponent. This number is a little high, play the “under.” 10* play |
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02-09-19 | Marshall v. Rice UNDER 171.5 | Top | 69-74 | Win | 100 | 24 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: Marshall comes in having lost five of six. The Owls have been terrible of late as well, going just 2-6 in their last eight. Rice will be “gassed” here as well after falling in double OT to WKU on Thursday. The Herd looked horrible in their most recent 78-51 loss at UNT on Thursday. From a situational stand point, this one absolutely sets up as a lower-scoring battle in my opinion between these two hungry/desperate teams. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Marshall has seen the total go “under” the number in four of its last five after two or more consecutive losses, while Rice has seen the total go “under” in both games it’s played in this season off a home loss against a conference rival. This number is a little high, play the “under.” 10* play |
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02-08-19 | Bucks v. Mavs OVER 222.5 | Top | 122-107 | Win | 100 | 26 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: Two hungry teams collide on Friday night and I think that points will be plentiful. The Bucks hammered the Wizards 148-129 on Wednesday, while Dallas enters off a 99-93 win over Charlotte at home on Wednesday. The Mavericks will be hungry here to avenge a 116-106 road loss in the first meeting between the clubs. Milwaukee is surging still as it comes in having won five straight. Overall Milwaukee averages 117.8 PPG, while allowing 107.6. Dallas has won five of its last seven and it averages 109.1 PPG, while allowing 108.4. With nothing to lose, I’m expecting these non-conference opponents to push the pace from start to finish. The pick: Note as well that Milwaukee has seen the total go “over” the number in four of its last five after covering the spread three straight times as a favorite, while Dallas has seen the total go “over” in seven of its last nine home game after failing to score 100 points in a victory in its previous outing. This number is a little low, play the “over.” 10* play |
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02-06-19 | Senators v. Maple Leafs OVER 6.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 28 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: The Sens will be eager to get back on track here after a listless 2-0 home loss to Detroit last time out. The Leafs could clearly care less about their rivals problems as they’ll be looking to build off their commanding 6-1 home win over Anaheim. The Sens are terrible. Ottawa goaltender Craig Anderson is just 3-10 with a 4.23 GAA on the road this year. Toronto is now 16-12 at home, averaging 3.36 goals and allowing 2.68 in those contests. The pick: I’m not going to lay this steep price on the home side, but I absolutely expect a wide open affair here. Take it for what you will as well but Ottawa has seen the total go “over” four of five this year when playing with three or more days rest and in 12 of 18 after a loss by two goals or more. Also note that the Leafs have seen the total go “over” in nine of their last 12 vs. divisional foes. This number is low, play the “over.” 10* OVER |
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02-03-19 | Thunder v. Celtics OVER 226 | Top | 129-134 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: The Thunder continue to roll and I expect them to keep the foot on the gas here as well. Most recently OKC came out on top 118-102 in Miami on Friday. The C’s also come in off a blowout victory, hammering the Knicks 113-99 on the road on Friday. While the first matchup between these clubs was a lower-scoring “under” (Boston won 101-95 on October 25th in OKC), that was at the start of the season, before OKC started to turn things around. I’m expecting each side to push the pace of this one from start to finish and a faster paced game = more shots and more shots = more points. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but OKC has seen the total go “over” the number in 14 of 18 this season already after a non-conference game, while Boston has seen the total go “over” in 16 of 26 at home. This number is a little low, play the “over.” 10* play |
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02-02-19 | Seton Hall v. Butler OVER 144 | 68-70 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 29 m | Show | |
The set-up: Seton Hall is 13-8 and 4-5 in Big East play. It’s currently right on the bubble for the Big Dance. Butler is 12-10 and 3-6 in league action. The Bulldogs have a lot of work to do to get back into the NCAA Tourney conversation. These are two “hungry” teams and as such, I believe that from a “situational” stand point, this one definitely sets up as a higher-scoring shootout. The pick: Recent history as well tells us that this number is a little low as well, as when these teams met on Jan. 9th, it was the Pirates who scored the 76-75 victory. Take it row what you will as well, but Seton Hall has seen the total go “over” the number in four of five already this season off a home no cover where the team won straight up as a favorite, while Butler has seen the total go “over” in nine of its last ten as a home favorite of six points or less or pick. As stated off the top, this number is a little low. Play the “over.” 8* play |
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02-01-19 | Hawks v. Jazz UNDER 227 | Top | 112-128 | Loss | -107 | 29 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: From both a situational stand point and a trend based one, I think this one sets up great as a lower-scoring under. Both teams come in off horrible losses and as such, I’m expecting a much more concerted effort on the defensive end of the floor from each. The Hawks were destroyed 135-113 in Sacramento on Wednesday, while Utah fell 132-105 in Portland the same night. Clearly each will be out to atone for that massive letdown on the defensive end of the floor. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Hawks have seen the total go “under” the number in all five games that they’ve played in this year after playing to three or more consecutive “overs,” while Utah has seen the total dip “under” the posted number in eight of its last 12 after a blowout loss of 20 points or more. This number is high, play the “under.” 10* play |
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01-28-19 | TCU v. Texas Tech UNDER 133.5 | Top | 65-84 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: TCU comes to town off a 55-50 home win over Florida, while Texas Tech comes in off a hard-fought 67-64 home victory over Arkansas. TCU is 3-3 in league play, while the Red Raiders are 4-3. These are two defensive minded clubs and I believe that points will indeed be at a premium here. TCU’s offense was poor in the win over the Gators, as the team shot just 36 percent from the floor collectively. The Horned Frogs average 76.9 PPG and they allow just 66. The Red Raiders average only 70.0 PPG, but they make up for it on the either end of the floor, allowing just 56.4 PPG, ranked second in the country only behind Virginia. The pick: Note that TCU has seen the total go under in its last five vs. teams with a winning percentage above .600 and in five of its last six on the road, while TT has seen the total dip under in six of its last seven home games vs. teams with a losing road record. This number is high, play the “under.” 10* play |
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01-27-19 | Raptors v. Mavs UNDER 220 | Top | 123-120 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: Two non-conference, but hungry teams collide on Sunday night and in my opinion, this one sets up as more of a defensive affair than a wide open shootout. The Raptors will be looking to bounce back after a 121-119 loss to Houston on Friday, while Dallas comes in off a 106-101 home win over the Pistons on Friday. Toronto will be especially focused here after back-to-back losses. The Raptors average 113.9 PPG and they allow 108.5. Dallas won’t be rolling over though as the Mavs enter having won two straight. The Mavs average 109.4 PPG, while allowing 109.3. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but note that Toronto has seen the total go “under” the number in 15 of its last 22 when the total in the game is greater than or equal to 220, while Dallas has seen the total go “under” in eight of 12 already this season in trying to revenge a same season loss vs. an opponent (Toronto won 116-107 at home on Oct. 26th.) This number is high, play the “under.” 10* play |
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01-26-19 | Kansas v. Kentucky OVER 144 | 63-71 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
The set-up: Two of the best in the country go head to head here and I’m expecting points to be plentiful. Kansas has won 16 of 19 to open the season. Overall the Jayhawks average 78.1 PPG, while allowing 70.2. Several players average double figures for the visitors, including Lagerald Vick with 15 points and 3.9 boards. Kentucky has won 15 of its first 18 games and it averages 80 PPG, while allowing 67.5. The Wildcats are loaded with talent as well, including Tyler Herro who averages 13.7 points and 4.3 boards per game. The pick: Note as well that Kansas has seen the total go “over” the number in nine of its last 11 non-conference games, while Kentucky has seen the total fly “over” in eight of its last ten after allowing 60 points or less in its previous outing. This number is low, play the “over.” 8* play |
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01-22-19 | Sharks v. Capitals UNDER 6.5 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: Two hungry non-conference teams collide in the nation’s capital on Tuesday night and in my opinion, goals will be at a premium. San Jose will be eager to atone for a dreadful 6-2 road loss to Florida, while Washington also has some questions to answer after its atrocious 8-5 loss in Chicago in its most recent action. San Jose comes in focused here after three straight losses. Washington fans can empathize, as the defending champs enter having lost five straight! From a situational stand point, I’m absolutely expecting a battle from start to finish and to me, that just screams “under.” The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Jose has seen the total go “under” the number in 31 of its last 46 after a loss by two goals or more in its previous game, while the Capitals have seen the total go “under” in three of its last four following a three games or more losing streak. This number is high, play the “under.” 10* Under |
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01-22-19 | Kings v. Raptors OVER 228 | Top | 105-120 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: I think that this one sets up great for a higher-scoring shootout between the non-conference opponents. The Kings got caught “looking ahead” to this one after their blowout loss in Brooklyn just last night. The Kings haven’t fared well in the second game of back-to-backs of late (0-7 ATS in their last seven), so if they want to reverse that trend, clearly they’re going to have to match pace with the high-flying home side. The Raptors on the other hand enter off a 119-90 destruction of the Grizzlies on Saturday and I look for them to carry that offensive momentum over here as well vs. this Western Conference foe. The Kings average 114 PPG and they allow 115.1. The Raptors average 113.9 PPG and they allow 108.3. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the King shave seen the total go “over” the number in all ten games they’ve played in this year as a road underdog in the 6.5 to 12 points range, while Toronto has seen the total go “over” in seven of its last ten off a home win by ten points or more. This number is low, play the “over.” 10* Over |
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01-20-19 | Hornets v. Pacers UNDER 219 | Top | 95-120 | Win | 100 | 24 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: No need to overthink this one in my opinion, as each comes in off a game on Saturday. The Hornets played and beat the Suns at home, while the Pacers played the Mavericks at home. Indiana plays with revenge here today as well after falling 127-109 in Charlotte back on November 21st. The Hornets average 112.1 PPG and they allow 111.4. The Pacers average 108.7 PPG and they allow just 103.4. That’s first in the NBA (note that the “under” is 15-6 for the Pacers this season when they play at home.) The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Charlotte has seen the total go “under” the number in three of four vs. good offensive teams which score 106-plus points per contest, while Indiana has seen the total go “under” in 13 of 18 as a home favorite this season and in three of four in revenging a loss where the opponent scored 110 or more points in. This number is a little high, play the “under.” 10* play |
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01-20-19 | Capitals v. Blackhawks OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 4 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: From a “situational” stand point, I think this one sets up great as a higher-scoring affair. Washington is out to atone for a 2-0 home loss to the Islanders, while Chicago is looking to bounce back after a 4-3 road loss to the Rangers. Despite the lacklustre effort at home, note that the Capitals are still 14-9 on the road, averaging 3.35 goals and allowing 3.26. The Blackhawks are just 8-15 at home, averaging 2.92 goals and allowing 3.46. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Washington has seen the total go “over” the number in 11 of 17 in non-conference games this year, while Chicago has seen the total go “over” in six of seven already this season when playing with two days rest. This number is low, play the “over.” 8* Over |
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01-19-19 | Virginia v. Duke UNDER 139.5 | Top | 70-72 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: Virginia will look to build off its impressive 81-59 win over Virginia Tech last Tuesday. The Cavs were efficient 58.5 percent from the floor collectively. Virginia is 16-0 this year. Overall the Cavs allow just 51.7 PPG, ranked No. 1 in the country. The Blue Devils come in off an exhausting 95-91 OT loss to Syracuse in its latest action and I think it’ll be “dog tired” here after that marathon. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up great for a lower-scoring under. The pick: Take it for what you will as well though by Virginia has seen the total go “under” the number in its last eight as an underdog and in 19 of its last 26 on the road, while Duke has seen the total go “under” in 11 of 14 as a favorite this year and in seven of nine at home. This number is high, play the “under.” 10* Under |
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01-17-19 | Blues v. Bruins OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 109 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams come in hungry, as each enters off a loss. The Blues are just 20-25 overall and they most recently fell 2-1 in OT on the road to the Isles. The Bruins are 26-20 and they most recently lost 4-3 on the road in Philadelphia last night. Previous to their most recent setback though, the Blues had been playing well, winning three straight. St. Louis will have to match pace with its difficult opponent tonight, as it’s just 9-10 on the road, averaging 2.37 goals and allowing 2.47. The Bruins won’t be leaving anything to chance today after going just 1-3 in their last four. Overall though Boston is 16-7 at home, averaging 3.48 goals and allowing 2.43. From a situational stand point, I definitely think this one sets up as more of an offensive affair (note the plus money return on the line!). The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but St. Louis has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last nine road game following an OT loss in its previous game in which it was held to one or less goals, while Boston has seen the total go “over” in six of its last eight when playing on back-to-back days. This number is a little low, play the “over.” Over 10* |
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01-17-19 | Kings v. Hornets OVER 229 | 95-114 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
The set-up: Two hungry teams collide on Thursday night and in my opinion, points are going to be plentiful. The Kings come in confident after their 115-107 home win over the Blazers on Monday. Charlotte also comes in ready to go after its 108-93 road win over the Spurs on Monday. Charlotte plays with the added incentive of revenge as well here after falling 104-97 in Sacramento just last week. From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up as a higher-scoring shootout in my opinion. The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Sacramento has seen the total go “over” the number in 23 of its last 33 as an underdog and in 13 of its last 11 as a road underdog, while Charlotte has seen the total go “over” in six of eight already this year when playing with two days of rest. 8* Over |
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01-17-19 | Knicks v. Wizards OVER 226.5 | Top | 100-101 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: Two hungry teams collides on Thursday afternoon and in my opinion, points will be plentiful! New York enters off a 108-105 home win over Philadelphia on Sunday, while Washington comes in off a frustrating 140-138 OT loss at home to the Raptors this weekend. The Wizards have taken both meetings between the clubs so far this season. The Knicks won’t be lacking motivation here though after losing four straight and 12 of their last 13. Note that New York has seen the total go “over” the number in 15 of 25 on the road this year already. Washington had won three of four previous to its latest setback to the Raptors. The Wizards have seen the total go “over” the number in 14 of 21 at home so far this year. The pick: Additionally note that New York has seen the total go “over” the number in 20 of its last 30 as an underdog, while Washington has seen the total go “over” in six of its last eight when playing with three or more days rest. This number is low, play the “over.” 8* OVER |
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01-16-19 | Nets v. Rockets OVER 221.5 | Top | 145-142 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: Two hungry non-conference competitors go head-to-head on Wednesday night and in my opinion, points will be plentiful. Brooklyn comes in having won five of its last seven, most recently pulling away for a 109-102 win over the Celtics. D’Angelo Russell led the way with 34 points, five boards and seven assists in the victory. Not to be outdone though, the Rockets come in red hot as well after winning 14 of their last 18, most recently destroying the Grizzlies 112-94 at home. James Harden would explode for 57 points in the victory. The pick: When these teams layer on November 2nd it was the Rockets that pulled away for the 119-111 win. I’m expecting a similar final combined score here as well as I look for each team to push the pace from start to finish. This number is low, play the “over.” *10 over |
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01-15-19 | New Mexico v. San Diego State UNDER 150 | 77-97 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 44 m | Show | |
The set-up: New Mexico will be out to atone for a 91-76 loss at Colorado State on Saturday as two-point favorite. The Lobos fell to 2-2 in MWC action with the setback. SDSU enters off a pathetic 62-48 loss to Air Force as a 5.5 point road favorite this weekend to also fall to 2-2 in league play. The Aztecs ply managed 16 first half points and I think they’ll have trouble with their offensive play today as well against this focused Lobos side. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Lobos have seen the total dip “under” in seven of their last nine overall, while SDSU has seen the total go “under” in 11 of the last 15 in this series. The conditions and the trends point to the “under” as the correct call in this one. 8* |
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01-15-19 | Wolves v. 76ers UNDER 232 | Top | 107-149 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: Minnesota enters off a tough 110-106 home win over New Orleans on Saturday night and I think it’ll carry that momentum over here vs. this equally as difficult non-conference opponent. The 76ers enter off a tougher than expected 108-105 road win over the Knicks on Sunday. Minnesota averages 111.6 PPG and it allows 111. Philadelphia is averaging 114.6 PPG, while allowing 112.5. The pick: The Wolves have won four of their last five thanks in large part to a renewed commitment on the defensive end of the floor. Minnesota has in fact seen the total go “under” in 20 of its last 30 road games when the total is greater than or equal to 220. Philly has lost two of its last three, but it’s seen the total go “under” in five of its last seven following a road victory. I think this number is a little high, play the “under.” 10* |
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01-13-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets OVER 217 | Top | 113-116 | Win | 100 | 23 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: Portland’s rolling after winning six of its last seven and I think it’ll carry that momentum over here. The Blazers average 111.9 PPG and they allow 109.7. Damian Lillard leads the nightly charge with 25.8 points for Portland. Clearly the Nuggets won’t be rolling over though, as they come in having won seven of their last nine. Denver is averaging 110.7 PPG, while allowing 105.4. Nikola Jokic is averaging 19.2 points for Denver. Portland will be very aware of the fact that Denver is 14-6 ATS at home, winning by an average margin of 11.7 PPG this season. With both teams pushing the pace, from a situational stand point there’s no question that this one sets up as more of a higher-scoring shootout. The pick: Note as well though that Portland has seen the total go “over” the number in six of its last eight after scoring 120 points or more in its previous contest, while Denver has seen the total go “over” in not surprisingly 16 of its last 26 vs. poor defensive teams which allow 106 plus points per contest. This number is low, play the “over.” 10* play |
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01-12-19 | Washington State v. Utah UNDER 154 | Top | 70-88 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: I think this one sets up well to be a lower-scoring defensive battle from a situational stand point. WSU will be eager to atone for a poor 92-60 loss in Colorado on Thursday, while Utah will also be out to bounce back after a 69-53 loss at home to Washington. Utah has won nine straight in this series, including a 77-70 road victory last February 17th. I believe we’ll see a similar final combined score here as well. As stated above, I think from a “situational” stand point that this one definitely sets up as more of a defensive affair. The pick: Note as well that WSU has already seen the total go “under” in three of its last four on the road and in ten of its last 15 off a road loss vs. a conference rival of more than ten points, while Utah has seen the total dip “under” in three of its last four as a home favorite in the 9.5 to 12 points range. This number is high, play the “under.” 10* TOTAL OF MONTH |
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01-09-19 | Miami-FL v. Florida State OVER 148.5 | Top | 62-68 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: Neither team is going to be lacking for motivation today and I believe this competitive battle will produce a lot of points. Miami Florida clearly can’t be happy at 8-6 overall and 0-2 in ACC action. FSU is a much better 12-2, but the Seminoles enter this one off a poor conference opening 65-52 loss to Virginia on Saturday. With both teams looking to break back into the win column, I believe that from a situational stand point, there’s no question that this one sets up as a higher-scoring “shootout.” The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but the Hurricanes have seen the total go “over” the number in nine of their last 11 as a road underdog or pick and in six of eight already this season vs. teams with winning records, while FSU has seen the total go “over” in five of seven at home this season and in four of its last five after scoring 60 points or less in its previous outing. This number is low, play the “over.” 10* play |
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