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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-12-18 | Brewers v. Braves UNDER 9 | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -120 | 17 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. For a number of different reasons, I think that runs are going to be at a premium this afternoon. The visitors go with Chase Anderson, while the home side goes with Sean Newcomb. The pitchers: Anderson is so far 7-7 with a 3.81 ERA. Most recently he gave up four runs over 4.2 innings in a loss to Milwaukee on Tuesday. Previous to that though he’d thrown back-to-back quality efforts and he’s still holding his opposition to just a .221 batting average. I think Anderson bounces back here and improves upon his already impressive 100:48 K/BB over 125.1 frames of work this season. Newcomb is so far 10-5 with a 3.15 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off five hits to go along with six strikeouts in a no-decision to Washington on Tuesday. Newcomb has now given up only three runs and ten hits over his last three starts combined, striking out 19 over 20.2 innings of work. The pick: This one has classic “duel” written all over it in my opinion. Look for these two hungry starters to battle deep and play the “under.” |
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08-11-18 | Twins v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -120 | 22 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of pretty “mediocre” match-ups on the mound, and this is one of them. These starters have looked decent at times this year and very poor in others and in my opinion, runs are going to be plentiful. The visitors go with Kyle Gibson, while the home side goes with Francisco Liriano. The pitchers: Gibson is so far 5-9 with a 3.60 ERA. He most recently gave up six runs off seven hits with three walks while striking out three over five innings in a loss to the Tribe on Monday. Overall Gibson has been solid this season, but note that the Twins have seen the total fly “over” the number in seven of their last ten when the line in the contest is set between +150 and -150. Liriano is so far 3-6 with a 4.37 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off five hits in a loss to the A’s on Sunday. For the most part LIriano has struggled this season though, coming into this one sporting a rough 73:51 K/BB. Note as well that he owns a horrible 5.08 ERA at home so far. The pick: I’m expecting these erratic starters to get the hook early and for this total to fly “over” sooner, rather than later. |
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08-10-18 | Rays v. Blue Jays UNDER 8.5 | Top | 7-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them. The visitors hand the ball to ace Blake Snell, while the home side goes with Marco Estrada. The pitchers: Snell is so far 12-5 with a 2.27 ERA. He came back from the DL to face the White Sox most recently and would give up one run over four innings. Snell’s “leash” will be taken off here and he actually comes in with an extra days rest. Note that he’s 6-4 with a 3.34 ERA on the road. Respectable for sure. Estrada is so far 5-8 with a 4.65 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off one hit while striking out four over seven innings in a victory over Seattle over the weekend. Estrada has struggled overall this season, but this latest effort was clearly a big step in the right direction and I think the veteran has the track record and pedigree to now carry that momentum over into a strong finish to the 2018 campaign. The pick: I’m expecting a classic “duel” and on Friday night and as such, I’m jumping all over the “under” in this one. |
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08-10-18 | Rangers v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 12-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound, and this is one of them. Both of these starters tonight have looked brilliant at times this season and very pedestrian in others. For a number of different reasons, I think this one has “slug-fest” written all over it. The visitors go with Mike Minor, while the home side goes with Masahiro Tanaka. The pitchers: Minor is so far 8-6 with a 4.53 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off four hits over seven innings in a victory over the light-hitting Orioles on Saturday. Minor has been “hit or miss” though this year and note that he’s a terrible 3-4 with a 6.50 ERA on the road still. Tanaka is so far 9-2 with a 3.76 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off six hits while striking out nine over 4.2 innings in a victory over Boston on Sunday. The pick: It’s hard to say anything negative about Tanaka, as overall he’s been very solid this year. Minor though has been a disaster on the road and I think the home side’s big bats are going to take advantage. The price is to steep, but the “over” is the correct call in my opinion. |
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08-08-18 | Orioles v. Rays OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features some starting pitchers who have seen better days. This is one of those match-ups. For a number of different reasons, I think this one has “slug-fest” written all over it. The visitors go with Andrew Cashner, while the home side goes with Ryne Stanek. The pitchers: Cashner is so far 3-10 with a 5.05 ERA. He most recently gave up ten runs off seven hits with three walks while striking out one over 1.2 innings in a loss to Texas on Thursday. Cashner had looked decent over the previous month before this dud, but note that he’s still a terrible 2-5 with a 5.40 ERA on the road this season. Stanek is so far 1-3 with a 2.27 ERA. Stanek has looked decent in his limited time as a starters, but clearly the book is still out on the the 27 year old, as the sample size is simply too small. He posted a 5.85 ERA last year, so regression does seem imminent in my opinion after his recent run of competency. The pick: I have zero confidence in either of these starters and I expect each to get chased early. So with that in mind, the prudent call is definitely the “over” in this particular matchup in my professional opinion. |
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08-08-18 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks UNDER 7.5 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features some interesting match-ups on the mound and there’s no question that this is one of them. Runs would appear to be at a premium tonight with a couple of red hot hurlers squaring off. The visitors go with Vince Velasquez, while the home side goes with Patrick Corbin. The pitchers: Velasquez is so far 8-8 with a 3.80 ERA. He most recently went 6.1 scoreless frames against the Fish on Friday, giving up two hits and one walk while striking out seven in the victory. Over his last 24.1 frames he’s given up just two runs. He also has 129 strikeouts over 113.2 innings of work this year. Corbin is so far 8-4 with a 3.31 ERA. He most recently struck out eight and walked zero in a victory over San Francisco on Friday. Cobrin now has 12 quality efforts on the season and he’s holding the opposition to a .216 batting average. He also has an impressive 174 strikeouts and a 1.06 WHIP. The pick: I’m expecting these starters to throw deep into this game and as a result, the “under” is the correct call in my professional opinion. |
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08-07-18 | Reds v. Mets OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -120 | 22 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: Two struggling starters go head-to-head in this one and runs would appear to be plentiful. The visitors hand the ball to Sal Romano, while the home side goes with Jason Vargas. The pitchers: Romano is so far 6-9 with a 5.12 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off eight hits while striking out three over 5.1 innings in a loss to Detroit on Wednesday. Romano has been terrible overall this season, especially on the road where he’s just 1-5 with a 5.62 ERA. Vargas is so far 2-7 with an 8.23 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off six hits and three walks in a loss to the Braves on Thursday. Vargas comes in with zero momentum, having now lost four straight. The pick: Vargas has struggled at home as well with a 1-3, 5.49 ERA record to this point. The total in this contest is high for a National League affair, but for good reason. I’m expecting these hurlers to get chased early and I look for this total to fly “over” the number sooner, rather than later. Play the “over.” |
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08-04-18 | Tigers v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -111 | 27 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and depending on how you want to look at it, this is definitely one of them. For a number of different reasons though, I think this one has high-scoring “slug-fest” written all over it. The visitors go with Jordan Zimmermann, while the home side goes with Edwin Jackson. The pitchers: Zimmermann is so far 4-3 with a 4.44 ERA. He most recently allowed five runs off six hits with one walk while striking out two over three innings in a loss to the Tribe on Sunday. He’s now lost three straight and posted a 1.21 WHIP to go along with just 67 strikeouts over 71 frames of work this season. Note that he owns a poor 5.25 ERA on the road as well. Jackson is so far 2-2 with a 3.32 ERA. He most recently went 5.2 scoreless against the Jays in a victory. In his previous start though he was blasted for five runs off seven hits over 4.1 innings. Jackson has been decent overall this year, but regression seems imminent in my opinion after his unreal start. The pick: For this pick I’m focusing solely on the starting pitchers. Simply put, neither fills me with a lot of confidence. In fact, I’m expecting each to get the hook early and as such, everything points to the “over” as the correct call in this particular match-up. |
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07-29-18 | Cubs v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: The Sunday Night ESPN game features an interesting matchup on the mound, as the visitors send Kyle Hendricks to the hill, while the home side goes with John Gant. The pitchers: Hendricks is so far 6-9 with a 4.05 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs off seven hits over five innings in a loss to Arizona on Tuesday. Over six of his last seven starts Hendricks has now failed to complete six innings. Note that he’s an uninspiring 3-3 with a 4.70 ERA on the road as well. Gant is so far 3-3 with a 3.44 ERA. He was most recently used in relief against the Reds on Wednesday, giving up two earned runs and two walks over one frame of work. The pick: These teams have woken up at the plate as the weather has warmed up, as Chicago has seen the total go “over” in 14 of 23 in July so far, while St. Louis has seen the total go “over” in five of its last seven against the division. While these teams played to the “under” on Saturday afternoon, everything points to a higher-scoring “slug-fest” in this one. Play the “over.” |
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07-29-18 | Blue Jays v. White Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 105 | 18 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a few interesting match ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them. The visitors hand the ball to Ryan Borucki, while the home side goes with Carlos Rodon. The pitchers: Borucki is so far 0-2 with a 2.79 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off six hits while striking out just two over six innings in a tough luck loss against Minnesota on Tuesday. Borucki has been the victim of poor run support to this point (just ten runs over his five big-league outings), but the Jays catch a break here today facing the erratic Rodon. Rodon is so far 3-3 with a 3.38 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs with three walks over seven innings in a victory over the Angels on Tuesday. Rodon has admittedly looked decent of late, but I still think he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here. The pick: And that’s because Toronto has seen the total go “over” the number in eight of its last ten against teams with losing records (and in four of its last six against southpaws). The Whitesox aren’t known for their offensive prowess, so that’s why it’s important to note that they’ve seen the total go “over” seven of their last ten home games when the total in the contest is set at either 9 or 9.5. I’m expecting these starters to get the hook early and for this one to sail “over” sooner, rather than later. |
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07-28-18 | Brewers v. Giants UNDER 7.5 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: This National League series features some interesting matchups, and this is definitely one of them. The Brewers go with Jhoulys Chacin, while the Giants go with Johnny Cueto. Runs would appear to be at a premium. The pitchers: Chacin is so far 9-3 with a 3.58 ERA. He most recently allowed one run off two hits with no walks while striking out nine over 5.2 innings in a victory over Washington on Monday. The veteran continues to produce consistent results, note that he’s 5-1 with a 3.67 ERA on the road as well. Cueto is so far 3-1 with a 2.76 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off six hits with two walks in a no-decision to the A’s on Sunday. While he’s struggled over the three starts since returning from the DL, I still don’t think there’s any need to panic. Regression was imminent after his blistering start, but the veteran has the track record and pedigree to return to form. The pick: take it for what you will as well, but Milwaukee has seen the total go “under” the number in 45 of 75 against right-handed starters already this season, while San Francisco has seen the total go “under” the number in 35 of 60 against right-handed starters this year. Look for these |
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07-26-18 | Mets v. Pirates OVER 8 | Top | 12-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: Two starters who have looked brilliant at times and poor in others so far this season meet on Thursday night and everything points to a “slug-fest” in my opinion. The visitors go with Stephen Matz, while the home side goes with Nick Kingham. The pitchers: Matz is so far 4-8 with a 3.65 ERA. He returned from the break to get shelled for five runs off nine hits over five innings in a loss to the Yankees on Saturday. Matz has been decent overall this year, but his latest start is definitely a worry if you’re a Mets fan. Kingham is so far 5-4 with a 4.11 ERA. He most recently allowed two runs off four hits over 6.1 innings in a victory over Cincinnati on Saturday. Kingham has admittedly been quite sharp over the last month, however I’ll point out that the rookie still has a poor 5.51 ERA in all “night” games this year. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Mets have seen the total go “over” the number in 17 of their last 27 road games as an underdog in the +125 to +175 range, while the Pirates have seen the total go “over” in 52 of their last 85 as a home favorite -125 to -175 range. This number is a little low, play the “over.” |
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07-26-18 | Royals v. Yankees OVER 9 | Top | 2-7 | Push | 0 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: Two starters who struggled over the first half meet on Thursday night and runs would appear to be plentiful. The visitors go with Jake Junis, while the home side goes with Sonny Gray. The pitchers: Junis is so far 5-10 with a 5.03 ERA. Junis most recently allowed one run off four hits with two walks over four innings while striking out six in a no-decision to the Twins on Saturday. Junis looked decent, but I’ll point out that he’s still just 3-8 with a 5.86 ERA in all “night” games. Gray is so far 7-7 with a 5.34 ERA. Gray gave up three runs over 5.1 innings in a win over the Mets in his first start back from the All Star game. Gray’s been better of late and while he’s been better on the road than at home, I’ll point out that he’s still a terrible 3-6 with a 6.60 ERA in all “night” games. The pick: New York is the most prolific offensive team in the league and while the Royals aren’t known for their offensive prowess, the visitors catch a break here facing the erratic Gray. Junis has been consistently inconsistent all year and I believe he’ll predictably stumble in this difficult venue. This number is a little low, play the “over.” |
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07-26-18 | Rays v. Orioles OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -117 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: Two starters who have struggled matchup together on Thursday night and everything points to more issues for each in the second. The visitors go with Hunter Wood, while the home side goes with Alex Cobb. The pitchers: Wood isn't expected to go long, just an inning or two. In his last start, he did allow one run and two hits (in just two innings). Cobb is so far 2-13 with a 6.17 ERA. He came out of the break and gave up four runs off four hits with three walks over 3.5 innings in a loss to Toronto on Saturday. Unfortunately for Cobb a date at home is not what the doctor ordered to get back on track, as he’s 0-5 with a 5.86 ERA in friendly confines so far. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Tampa has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last ten on the road when the money line in the contest is set between +125 and -125, while Baltimore has seen the total go “over” in eight of its last ten against the division. This number is a little low in my opinion, play the “over.” |
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07-20-18 | BC v. Ottawa OVER 53 | Top | 25-29 | Win | 100 | 34 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: Both team’s are 2-2 to open the season. While the “under” may be 3-0-1 in the last four in this series, I’m predicting that these two hungry sides open up the playbook and push the pace from start to finish, ultimately pushing this one “over” once it’s all said and done. The teams: This is the first meeting between the clubs this year, but last season the Redblacks won both match ups. BC will be out for revenge, but it’ll also be looking to build off its come from behind 20-17 victory over Winnipeg last weekend. The Lions are still desperate for a breakout offensive performance, having not scored more than 22 points in a game this year. Travis Lulay returned from injury and he looked good for BC, going 28 of 41 for 326 yards and a TD. The Lions have struggled with consistency on the road, so they clearly won’t be taking anything for granted here. Ottawa will be eager to take out its frustrations after a dismal 27-3 loss to Calgary last week at home. The Redblacks managed just 169 total yards of offense. QB Trevor Harris passed for only 93 yards and was picked twice. The pick: While each team struggled offensively last week, I believe the conditions are right for a more wide open affair between these two non-conference opponents. Take it for what you will as well, but BC has seen the total go “over” the number in four of its last six as a road dog in the 3.5 to 7 points range, while Ottawa has seen the total go “over” in four of its last six as a home fav in the same points range. Play the “over.” |
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07-20-18 | Cardinals v. Cubs UNDER 10.5 | Top | 18-5 | Loss | -105 | 1 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: Two pitchers who put together great first half efforts go head-to-head in this National League contest on Friday afternoon and in my opinion, everything points to a classic “duel.” The visitors go with Joe Flaherty, while the home side goes with Jon Lester. The pitchers: Flaherty is so far 3-4 with a 3.24 ERA. In his last start before the break he was forced to leave early after allowing three runs (just two earned) off four hits over 2.1 innings in a no-decision to San Francisco. Overall though Flaherty has been consistent this year and he’ll surely benefit from the extra time off. Note that he’s 2-0 with a 2.14 ERA in all “day” games as well. Lester is so far 12-2 with a 2.58 ERA. The veteran has gotten progressively better as the season has worn on and there’s no question that he’ll also have benefited from the extra time off because of the All Star Classic. Note that he’s 5-1 with a minuscule 1.98 ERA at home this season and 7-0 with a 2.22 ERA in all “day” games as well. The pick: Recent form displayed by these starters, coupled with the overall situation point to runs being at a premium in this afternoon matchup. This number is a little high, play the “under.” |
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07-10-18 | A's v. Astros UNDER 8 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -112 | 24 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: The A’s hand the ball to Sean Manaea, while the Astros go with Justin Verlander. Manaea already has a perfect game this year and he’s been the backbone in Oakland’s rotation this season. Verlander continues to dazzle and in my opinion, runs would definitely appear to be at a premium in this one. The pitchers: Manaea is so far 8-6 with a 3.33 ERA. Most recently he’d give up two runs off four hits over seven innings in a no-decision to the Padres on Wednesday. Manaea has now given up three or fewer runs in six straight starts and note that he’s a sharp 5-2 with a 3.15 ERA on the road this year. Verlander is so far 9-4 with a 2.15 ERA. Verlander most recently allowed two runs with ten strikeouts over seven innings in a no-decision to Houston Thursday. Verlander is well on his way to the Cy Young with his impressive 154:24 K/BB. The pick: Verlander owns a 1.87 ERA in all “night” contests as well this season. And take it for what you will, but Oakland has already seen the total go “under” the number in 21 of 35 this season when the total is either 8 or 8.5, while Houston has seen the total go “under” in 16 of 24 home games already this year when the total is in the same range. This number is a little high, play the “under.” |
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07-10-18 | Nationals v. Pirates UNDER 9 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 24 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: Two pitchers which had little expectations heading into the season, but who have been “better than advertised” collide on Tuesday and in my opinion, everything points to a bit of a “duel.” The visitors go with Jeremy Hellickson, while the home side goes with Joe Musgrove. The pitchers: Hellickson is so far 2-1 with a 3.81 ERA. Hellickson comes in off an outing to forget though, giving up nine runs over 4.0 innings in a no-decision to Miami on Thursday. It should be noted though that it was reported just before his start that he was dealing with an illness, but that he’d still be able to take the mound. Clearly Hellickson was effected though. Note that he’s 2-1 with a 3.13 ERA on the road this year. Musgrove is so far 3-3 with a 3.79 ERA. Musgrove returns from the ten-day DL after throwing a bullpen session on Sunday. In his previous start he’d go seven scoreless against the Friars on June 29th. Note that Musgrove is 3-1 with a 1.69 ERA in all “night” games. The pick: Not only has Washington already seen the total go “under” the number in nine of 13 road games this season when the total in the contest is between 9 and 9.5, but it’s also seen it go “under” in 21 of its last 36 against clubs with losing records. And therefore it’s definitely worthy to note that Pittsburgh has seen the total go “under” in all six home games that it’s played this year when the total is either 9 or 9.5. This number is a little high, play the “under.” |
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07-08-18 | White Sox v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 102 | 19 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: After yesterday’s high-scoring “slug-fest,” I’m expecting much more of a “duel” in the finale of this three-game set. The visitors go with Lucas Giolito, while the home side goes with Dallas Keuchel. The pitchers: Giolito is so far 5-7 with a 6.93 ERA. He enters off a horrible start on Tuesday against the Reds, allowing seven earned runs off eight hits with three walks over five innings. Note that things won’t get any easier for Giolito this afternoon, but with his job on the line, we definitely don’t have to question his focus. Keuchel is so far 5-8 with a 4.12 ERA. He most recently allowed two runs off five hits with one walk while striking out seven in a victory over Texas on Tuesday. Keuchel has looked a bit better of late, but note that he’s still just 1-4 with a 4.96 ERA at home this year. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago has already seen the total go “under” the number in three of four as a road dog of +250 or more, while Houston has seen the total go “under” in ten of 13 already this season as a home favorite in the -250 to -330 range. This number is a little high, play the “under.” |
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07-07-18 | BC v. Winnipeg OVER 55.5 | Top | 19-41 | Win | 100 | 71 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: Note that this is the opener of a home and home set between these teams and it marks the only time that they’ll face each other in the regular season for the remainder. Over the last three years they’ve met eight times (including playoffs) and the Bombers are 5-3 in those games, including 3-1 on home field. To break this string, the Lions are going to have open things up and look to catch the home side off guard. The teams: BC looks to reverse its fortunes after its humbling 41-22 beatdown loss in Edmonton last week: “This is our first taste of adversity,” said Lions Head Coach Wally Bruno after. Keep your eyes on WR Emmanuel Arceneaux, who has 106 yards on the season, but who is still looking for his first TD. Winnipeg can’t take anything for granted here obviously as it tries to find its identity without star QB Matt Nichols directing the show, as he’s still three weeks away from returning from injury. Backup Chris Streveler has his team at 1-2 on the year. The Bombers have struggled defensively though at times this season, in the two losses the unit has allowed 777 yards combined through the air. The pick: So can BC’s Jon Jennings, who hasn’t thrown for over 200 yards in two games this year, step up and take advantage? He’s going to be given the green light in this one as BC is desperate to get back into the winners circle. Winnipeg will also be looking to “air it out.” This number is just a little low, play the “over.” |
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07-07-18 | Dodgers v. Angels OVER 9 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -125 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: After the Angels prevailed 3-2 yesterday, I’m expecting more of a “slug-fest” between these inter-league in-state rivals on Saturday night. The visitors go with Ross Stripling, while the Angels go with Deck McGuire. The pitchers: Stripling is so far 6-2 with a 2.27 ERA. Most recently he gave up four runs off nine hits over six innings while striking out seven and walking one. Overall Stripling has been solid this year, but clearly this latest outing wasn’t an encouraging sign. McGuire is so far 0-1 with a 7.56 ERA. McGuire most recently gave up five runs off five hits over 3.1 innings in a loss to Baltimore on Sunday. He was then sent back down to the minors, before then being called up again to make this start. More than anything I’m basing this play on the fact that I think McGuire is going to struggle mightily again in this one. The pick: And take it for what you will, but the Dodgers have already seen the total go “over” the number in 37 of 56 against right-handed starters this season, while the Angels have seen the total go “over” in four of their last six after allowing two runs or less in their previous outing. This number is just a little low, play the “over.” |
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07-06-18 | Rockies v. Mariners UNDER 8.5 | Top | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 20 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: Colorado had the night off on Thursday, while Seattle closed its series with the Angels with a 4-1 win. I think another low-scoring affair is in order in the Pacific Northwest in the opener of this series, as the visitors hand the ball to German Marquez, with the home side going with Felix Hernandez. The pitchers: Marquez is so far 6-8 with a 5.14 ERA. He most recently gave up one run over eight innings while striking out nine in a dominant victory over the Dodgers on Saturday. Marquez has struggled at Coors Field this year, but he’s posted a highly respectable 3.07 ERA on the road. Hernandez is so far 8-6 with a 5.11 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs off six hits with five strikeouts over five innings in a win over Kansas city on Saturday. Hernandez has been much better at home this year with a sub-4.00 ERA, while also striking out 49 batters over 54.1 frames of work. The pick: And take it for what you will as well, but Colorado has already seen the total go “under” the number in 21 of 33 against teams with winning records this season, while Seattle has seen the total go “under” the number in six of its last eight as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. This number is indeed a tad high, play the “under.” |
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07-06-18 | Belgium v. Brazil OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 107 | 22 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: Belgium comes in having not lost since a friendly to Spain in August 2016, a stretch of 23 unbeaten. Belgium has so far won its four games outright to advance to this point. Neymar and company are going to have their hands full today in this one and in my opinion, all signs point to a high-scorer, wide-open shoot-out. The teams: Brazil would beat Mexico 2-0 in the Knock Out Round, while Belgium needed an epic second half come from behind effort to knock off Japan 3-2 after being down 2-0 for most of the contest. Neymar got a goal in the win over Mexico for Brazil. In all the Brazilians would get 14 shots on target and I think they’ll have plenty of opportunity here today as well against a Belgian side which had its hands full against the Japanese. Brazil has been tough defensively, but The Selecao will truly be tested today by Romelu Lukaku and company. The Belgians three-goal second half barrage was impressive in their win over the Japanese and there’s no reason not to think that they can’t carry that momentum over here as well. The pick: Note that Belgium has now won six matches in a row and it’s scored 19 goals in the process. Two of the World’s best go head-to-head here and in my opinion, everything does indeed point to offensive fireworks. Play the “over.” |
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07-05-18 | White Sox v. Astros UNDER 8 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 22 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: The White Sox were busy losing 7-4 in Cincinnati last night, while the Astros were taking care of business with a series win in Texas this week, most recently a 6-5 extra-innings affair just last night. While these teams were both involved in higher-scoring games on Wednesday, I think that their Thursday series opener sets up as more of a “duel.” The White Sox go with Carlos Rodon on the hill this evening, while the Astros go with ace Justin Verlander. The pitchers: Rodon is so far 1-3 with a 4.55 ERA. Rodon comes in off an outing to forget against the Rangers on Saturday allowing five runs off six hits over 5.1 innings in the eventual loss. Rodon has looked decent at times over his first five starts and shaky in others, but I will point out that the White Sox have seen the total go “under” the number in ten of 16 already this season as a road dog in the +175 to +250 range. Verlander is so far 9-4 with a 2.12 ERA. Verlander gave up five runs off nine hits over five innings in a 5-2 loss to Tampa Bay on Saturday. The silver lining behind the sub-par performance was that he’d go on to strike out eight. Has Verlander finally hit the wall after his improbable turn-around in helping the Astros to a World Series, or will the veteran get back on track with another consistent effort here? I’m banking on the latter being the case, note that he’s 4-2 with a 1.80 ERA in all “night” games this season. The pick: It’s definitely worth noting as well that Houston has seen the total go “under” the number in nine of 11 as home favorite in the -250 to -330 range already this year. This number is a little high, play the “under.” |
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07-04-18 | Twins v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: The Twins lost 2-0 yesterday and clearly they’ll be eager to bounce back here after that listless effort. While Tuesday’s contest stayed well “under” the posted number, I think that we’re in line for more of a “slug-fest” on Wednesday afternoon. The visitors hand the ball to Jose Berrios, while the home side goes with Chase Anderson. The pitchers: Berrios is so far 8-6 with a 3.52 ERA. Berrios most recently got blasted for six runs off six hits with four walks over 4.1 innings in a loss to the Cubs on Friday. And now Berrios has to pitch against another tough National League opponent in this inter-league contest. Note that while he’s 6-2 with a 2.62 ERA at home, Berrios is just 2-4 with a 4.93 ERA on the road. Anderson is so far 6-6 with a 4.18 ERA. Anderson most recently gave up one run off two hits with five strikeouts over six innings in a win over the Reds on Friday. Note though that it was just Anderson’s second quality start since May. Also note that he sports a terrible 5.29 ERA at home this season. The pick: Despite yesterday’s result, note that Minnesota has still seen the total go “over” the number in 11 of 16 inter-league games this year. I’m banking on these starters getting the hook early and for this one to soar over, sooner rather than later. |
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07-03-18 | White Sox v. Reds UNDER 9.5 | Top | 12-8 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams went “under” the number in Game 1 of this inter-league series, with Boston coming out on top 4-3. Two more capable starters collide in the nation’s capital on Tuesday night and once again I believe that runs will be at a premium. The visitors go with Brian Johnson, while the home side goes with Tanner Roark. The pitchers: Johnson is so far 1-2 with a 4.28 ERA. Johnson went four innings in place of Steven Wright last week and manager Alex Cora will give him another shot here with several starters on the verge of returning from injury, but not ready quite yet. Johnson will obviously be looking to make the most of this opportunity and improve upon his respectable 2.45 ERA in all “night” games this season. Roark is so far 3-9 with a 4.10 ERA. Roark comes off a tough loss to the Phillies on Thursday, allowing two runs (just one earned) off seven hits while striking out five over six innings. Roark has been far from perfect this year, but he does own a 3.75 ERA in all night games. The pick: And take it for what you will as well, but Boston has already seen the total go “under” the number in nine of 15 on the road this year when the total in the contest is set between +125 and -125, while Washington has seen the total go “under” in eight of nine at home with a money line set in the same range. This number is a little high in my estimation, play the “under.” |
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07-03-18 | Switzerland v. Sweden UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: Switzerland comes in having lost just one of its last 20 matches since falling on penalties in the second round of the 2016 Euros. The Swiss though would be the runners up in Group E, while Sweden topped its group, one which included defending World Cup champion Germany. The teams: Note that Sweden midfielder Sebastian Larsson is suspended for this matchup after picking up two yellow cards in the group stage. The Swede’s will be leaning heavily on defenseman Andrea Granqvist, who anchors their back line and who also scored two penalties in the group stage. The only team to have beaten Sweden over its last five matches is Germany and it’s also the only team that’s scored against it in this time. The Swiss will be without captain Stephan Lichsteiner, who is one of two defenders banned after receiving dual yellows in the group stages. Switzerland will be expecting Ricardo Rodriguez to step up once again, as he comes in having scored two goals already in this tournament. The Swiss drew with Brazil in their opener, proving unequivocally in my mind that they have the defense to stop any team. The win over Croatia was then followed by a draw with Costa Rica, which earned it second spot in its group. The pick: These teams are both patient and opportunistic. With each looking for the other to make the first mistake, this Round of 16 matchup has the feel of a “chess match,” rather than a run and gun “shootout.” Play the “under.” |
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07-02-18 | Red Sox v. Nationals UNDER 7.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: Two veteran studs go head-to-head in the opener of this inter-league series and suffice it to say, I’m expecting a classic “duel!” The visitors go with Rick Porcello, while the home side goes with ace Max Scherzer. The pitchers: Porcello is so far 9-3 with a 3.60 ERA. He most recently allowed four runs off eight hits while striking out five over 5.2 innings in a no-decision to the Angels on Wednesday. Porcello hasn’t been perfect this year, but he’s been better than what Boston could have possibly asked for, coming in with a strong 1.13 WHIP and 99:24 K/BB over 105 innings of work. Scherzer is so far 10-4 with a 2.04 ERA. He most recently allowed one run off four hits over seven innings in a loss to the Rays on Tuesday. Scherzer has gotten only nine runs of support over five June starts, leading to a 1-3 record, despite giving up only eight runs over 28 innings of work. Scherzer has to be feeling confident here though as he’s 4-1 with a 2.03 ERA at home and 7-0 with a 1.96 ERA in all “night” games. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston has already seen the total go “under” the number in three of four this year as a road underdog in the +175 to +250 range, while Washington has seen the total go “under” in 12 of 17 inter-league games. I’m expecting a contested/tight battle in the latter frames. Play the “under.” |
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07-02-18 | Mexico v. Brazil OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
The set-up: Mexico beat Germany in its opening game and while it somehow also managed a victory in its second, it would come up short in a 3-0 loss in its final group stage match. Brazil started its group stage with a “draw,” but then it would pick up steam with consecutive victories. Two of the World’s soccer heavyweights collide on Monday morning in the knock out round and everything points to a higher-scoring shootout in my opinion. The teams: Brazil forward Neymar returned from injury in the final warm-up before the tournament to score a goal and he’d also notch his 56th international goal in the victory over Costa Rica. Philippe Coutinho has scored in three straight Brazil matches, but he would also assist in the opener against Serbia. Mexico will have its hands full with a Brazil team which hasn’t lost since a friendly against Argentina in August. The Mexicans followed up their historic win over Germany with a more lacklustre effort over South Korea, only to then be shutout in its final group game. Clearly Mexico will be looking to regain its form/confidence with a much better effort. The pick: Mexico has never advanced past the Round of 16 and it’ll need an even bigger miracle on Monday than what it received in the victory over Germany. Regardless, with each side pushing the pace, I’m expecting this total to soar over the number sooner, rather than later. Play the “over.” |
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07-01-18 | Braves v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: Normally steady, I think both of these starters will get chased early, which will in turn result in a higher-scoring over. The Braves go with Mike Foltynewicz, while the Cardinals go with John Gant. The pitchers: Foltynewicz is 5-4 with a 2.14 ERA so far. Foltynewicz most recently gave up one run off one hit with four strikeouts over five innings in a no-decision to Cincinnati on Monday. Foltynewicz has the elite ERA, but note that he’s only gone into the sixth inning or beyond just five times this year. Gant is so far 2-2 with a 3.48 ERA. Gant made a spot start against Cleveland on Monday and he’d go seven scoreless in the gem. Gant has made the most of his time as a starter this year, but his last effort was atypical. Note that he owns a pedestrian 4.55 ERA in all “day” games to this point as well. The pick: And take it for what you will, but St. Louis has seen the total go “over” the number ten of 15 home games this year when the total in the contest is set between +125 and -125, while ATL has seen the total go “over” in 12 of 21 road games when the total is set between the same money line range. This number is a little low, play the “over.” |
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06-30-18 | Argentina v. France OVER 2 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 105 | 22 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: France is unbeaten in its last seven and its lost only once in its last 15 matches. The French topped Group C, but they looked far from dominant in doing so. Argentina needed a late goal in its final group game to grab second spot and a place in the round of 16. The teams: Didier Deschamps rested players for France against Denmark, but he’s expected to go back to the second group which faced Peru: Hugo Lloris, Benjamin Pavard, Samuel Umtiti, Paul Pogba, Blaise Matuidi and Kylian Mbappe all returning to the starting line-up. Note that Antonie Griezmann scored from the penalty spot in the opening game. Lionel Messi finally got off the schneid in the win over Nigeria for Argentina. Marcos Rojo returned to the starting line-up last time out and he’d score the winning goal. The pick: Argentina has been susceptible defensively throughout this tournament though, as evidenced by its 3-0 defeat to Croatia. Despite that setback though, the Argentinian’s have to be feeling pretty fortunate to have advanced. Clearly Argentina will be looking to pull off an upset here against a France team which also has something to prove to its faithful. Two teams which did not live up to expectations in the group round have a shot at redemption this afternoon and I think it will in fact help push this to a higher-scoring shootout. Play the “over.” |
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06-29-18 | Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 9 | Top | 1-8 | Push | 0 | 19 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: The Yanks had the night off, while Boston played to a lower-scoring pitchers duel at home to the Angels Thursday. This is an important early series and despite each of these starting pitchers having played solidly to this point, I’m expecting some offensive fireworks in the opener. The visitors go with Eduardo Rodriguez, while the home side goes with CC Sabathia. The pitchers: Rodriguez is so far 9-2 with a 3.86 ERA. Rodriguez has been better than Boston could have possibly asked for this year, but note that he does enter off a terrible outing against the Mariners on Saturday, allowing five runs off seven hits over four innings. Sabathia is so far 4-3 with a 3.18 ERA. Most recently he allowed two runs over 5.1 innings in a loss to Tampa Bay on Friday. Sabathia has been decent of late, but note that the Yanks have seen the total go “over” the number in 15 of 25 following a loss. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston has seen the total go “over” in seven of its last ten “night” games. I’m expecting these hard-hitting line-ups to be the main story-lines in tomorrows summaries. Play the “over.” |
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06-28-18 | Ottawa v. Calgary UNDER 57 | Top | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 58 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: Ottawa comes in off a satisfying 40-17 upset win over Saskatchewan in its season opener, while Calgary is so far 2-0. East meets West in the Week 2 Opener and I’m expecting more of a defensive battle in this one. The teams: Trevor Harris had 345 yards, two touchdowns and an interception in his season opener for the Redblacks. Greg Ellingson was his favorite target with eight catches for 104 yards. William Powell had 94 yards on 18 carries with one major score. The Stamps have been upset in the Grey Cup in each of the last two years and anything less but a trip to the big thing would be viewed as a major disappointment this year. So far QB Bo Levi Mitchell has been solid with 621 yards passing, four TD’s and one INT. Receiver Eric Rogers has six catches for 144 yards and two touchdowns. The pick: Note as well that Ottawa has seen the total go “under” the number in six of its last eight on the road. These defenses are both underrated though in my opinion and I think the stage is set for those units to step up here on the short week and become the main storyline in tomorrow’s summaries. Play the “under.” |
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06-28-18 | Cubs v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 11-5 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: A couple of capable southpaws square off against each other in this National League series on Thursday afternoon and in my opinion, runs definitely will be at a premium. The Cubs go with Jose Quintana, while the Dodgers go with Clayton Kershaw. The pitchers: Quintana is so far 6-6 with a 4.26 ERA. Quintana comes in off an outing to forget against the Reds on Friday, giving up four runs off nine hits with two walks over five frames while striking out three. I think it’s important to note though that Quintana has been solid on the road with a 3.22 ERA, compared to a shaky 6.00 ERA at home. Kershaw is so far 1-4 with a 2.94 ERA. Kershaw most recently gave up two runs off five hits with one walk while striking out four over three innings in a no-decision to the Mets on Saturday. Kershaw was under a pitch count in his first start back from the DL, but he’ll be given a bigger leash this afternoon. Note that he owns a 2.10 ERA in all “day” games to this point. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago has seen the total go “under” the number in nine of 15 against southpaws this year, while LA has seen the total go “under” in 20 of 27 against left-handed starters this season. Expect a tight battle into the latter innings and for this one to fall “under” at the end of the afternoon. |
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06-28-18 | Belgium v. England OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 195 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: Last time out Belgium demolished Tunisia 5-2 to move to 2-0 in group action, while England smashed Panama 6-1, also pushing its record to a perfect 2-0. These countries have already moved onto the Knock-Out round, but each will be eager to cap off the group stage with another victory. These are two of the highest scoring teams in the Tournament so far and everything points to more offensive fireworks on Tuesday afternoon. The teams: The Belgians scored 43 goals over ten games during qualifying. Romelu Lukaku has been impressive early on in this tournament, but Belgium will also be leaning on Kevin De Bruyne, as he posted 11 goals during qualifying, while also scoring 16 goals for Man U this season. Harry Kane leads the 2018 World Cup in goals scored after posting three in his team’s demolition of Panama. Kane will be forced to keep up his frantic pace facing the high-flying Belgians this afternoon. The pick: Belgium has been susceptible on the back end, so England’s game plan should be to push the pace and attack. The English haven’t been tested defensively yet, but the Three Lions face their most difficult task yet. When you add it all up, the “over” is the correct call in my opinion. |
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06-27-18 | Rockies v. Giants UNDER 7.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams played to a low-scoring battle in San Francisco’s 3-2 victory last night and in my opinion, everything once again points to a “duel” in the Bay on Wednesday. The visitors hand the ball to Kyle Freeland, while the home side goes with Madison Bumgarner. The pitchers: Freeland is so far 7-6 with a 3.55 ERA. Freeland most recently went six innings and gave up two runs while striking out four in a win over the Mets on Thursday. Over 90.1 frames of work he’s posted a 77:31 K/BB. Bumgarner is so far 1-2 with a 3.20 ERA. Most recently he gave up three hits while walking two and striking out eight over eight scoreless in his first win of the year over the Padres on Thursday. Bumgarner threw 69 of his 100 pitches for strikes and after two mediocre outings after returning from the DL, the veteran clearly looks poised for another strong performance. The pick: Dual-ing southpaws on Wednesday night. Recent form by Freeland suggests that he can continue his success, while Bumgarner is no doubt rounding into form as well. I’m expecting these horses to battle into the latter frames and for this one to fall “under” at the end of the night. |
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06-27-18 | Sweden v. Mexico UNDER 2.5 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -130 | 3 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are hungry for a victory. Mexico has so far claimed all six points with a 1-0 upset of Germany, followed by a 2-1 victory over South Korea. Sweden though comes in off a disappointing 2-1 loss to Germany, a game in which it held a 1-0 half-time lead. Neither of these teams is known for its overpowering offense and suffice it to say, I’m expecting another lower-scoring affair in the end in this one as well. The teams: Mexico needs just one point to secure top spot in this group, so a draw would be completely satisfactory. The Mexicans have now lost just two of their last ten games across all competitions. Sweden’s rock solid defense was cracked in stoppage-time last time out by a 95th minute miracle goal. Sweden is now tied with Germany on three points. Germany plays South Korea next, so Sweden will be looking for the outright victory today. The pick: But that’s easier said than done against Mexico, which completely shut down the high-flying Germans and which has conceded just one goal so far through two fixtures. Mexico has plenty of talent, but note that it’s only scored three goals so far itself. Five of Mexico’s last six games across all competitions have fallen “under” the number and Sweden has kept a clean sheet in three of its last four. This one has “under” written all over it. |
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06-26-18 | Indians v. Cardinals UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-11 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cards scored the 4-0 win in the opener of this inter-league series and I think that runs will once again be at a premium on Tuesday night. The Tribe go with their ace Corey Kluber, while St. Louis goes with Carlos Martinez. The pitchers: Kluber is so far 11-3 with a 2.10 ERA. He comes in off a dominant outing against the White Sox on Wednesday, giving up one hit with one walk while striking out seven over seven scoreless. Kluber would throw 65 of his 96 pitches for strikes, while also inducing 15 swinging strikes. Kluber has now posted quality efforts in 15 of his 16 trips to the hill this year. Martinez is so far 3-4 with a 3.24 ERA. Martinez hasn’t been at his best since returning from the DL, most recently he allowed seven runs off eight hits while striking out three over four innings in a setback to Milwaukee on Thursday. Martinez though has the track record and pedigree to return to form and he has to be feeling confident here, as he comes in with a sharp 2.29 ERA at home. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Cleveland has seen the total go “under” the number in nine of 12 this year as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while St. Louis has seen the total go “under” in seven of eight inter-league contests (note as well that the Indians have seen the total go “under” in five of seven inter-league games.) This number is a little high, play the “under.” |
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06-25-18 | Yankees v. Phillies UNDER 9 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: The Phillies took two of three in Washington over the weekend, but they lost the final 8-6 last night. The Yankees were also involved in a high-scoring, extra-inning slug-fest with Tampa, as they ultimately came out on the short-end of a 7-6 setback. Suffice it to say, I think runs are going to be much harder to come by in the opener of this interleague series. The visitors go with Jonathan Loaisiga, while the home side goes with Vince Velasquez. The pitchers: Loasigia is so far 1-0 with a 3.12 ERA. Loasiga’s debut saw him shut down the Rays, but he’d come back down to Earth in his second start by allowing three runs off six hits with four strikeouts over 3.2 innings in a no-decision against the Mariners last week. Loasigia has shown great potential and I think he’ll match his counterpart inning for inning. Velasquez is so far 5-7 with a 4.82 ERA. Velasquez most recently gave up four runs off four hits over 6.1 innings while also striking out eight in a no-decision to St. Louis on Tuesday. Note that Velasquez owns a decent 1.28 WHIP to go along with a 97/29 K:BB over 80.1 innings. The pick: Take it for what you will, but New York has already seen the total dip below the posted number in seven of nine inter-league contests this season. While these teams come in off a couple of high-scoring series, the opener of this one points to the “under” as the correct call. |
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06-24-18 | Colombia v. Poland OVER 2.25 | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 28 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: Colombia has won just two of its last ten matches across all competitions. The Colombians though had to play 87 minutes plus stoppage against Japan with just ten men after an early red card in their opening game, a deficit which ultimately proved too much for them to overcome. Poland comes in off a shocking defeat to Senegal and there’s no question that it’ll be looking for a much better, mistake free result this time around. With both teams eager to reverse their fortunes, I’m expecting a higher-scoring shootout. The teams: Colombia is not in good form right now. James Rodriguez will be expected to do a lot more for the Colombian’s in this one. Carlos Sanchez sustained a deliberate handball red card in the third minute of the game and the Japanese took advantage. Radamel Falco has 29 goals in 74 international matches and he’ll also be expected to step up here. Poland will be expecting a lot more from Robert Lewandowski as well. Lewandowski had three goals in his countries warm-up matches, putting him at 55 overall for Poland. The Poles gave up two sloppy goals to Senegal, so there’s no question that they’ll be looking to clean things up here. The pick: These teams both lost their opening games, but each fell by a 2-1 score. There was no lack of scoring in those openers and I’m not expecting anything different here either. Poland has now scored ten goals over its last four matches and I expect it to have plenty of chances this afternoon as well. This one has wide open “shootout” written all over it. Play the “over.” |
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06-23-18 | Calgary v. Toronto UNDER 51.5 | Top | 41-7 | Win | 100 | 30 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: Note that this is the second highest total on the board in Week 2. In the 2017 Grey Cup, Calgary was a seven-point favorite, but it would get upset for a second straight year in the “big game” 27-24. A Matt Black interception of Bo Levi Mitchell in the end zone with eight seconds remaining was a dramatic finish to a great upset. The teams: Calgary looked sharp on both ends of the field in its 28-14 win over visiting Hamilton in Week 1. The Stamps though would only pull away in the fourth quarter with a 19-3 run. Mitchell struggled, going just 17 of 36 for 297 yards, a touchdown and an interception. RB Don Jackson was a bright spot with 87 yards on 12 carries. Toronto was a three-point fav in Saskatchewan in Week 1, but the defending champs fell flat in the 27-19 setback. The Argos looked bad offensively, posting just five points through the first three quarters. QB Ricky Ray had just 233 yards, with no touchdowns and one interception. RB James Wilder Jr. was also a major disappointment with 17 total rushing yards. The Argos’ bright spot was their play on the defensive side in the Week 1 loss. The pick: These teams have a long history of playing to lower-scoring defensive battles as well, as five of their last six in the series have gone “under” the posted number. Everything points to another tight/lower-scoring war in this one as well. Play the “under.” |
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06-23-18 | South Korea v. Mexico UNDER 2.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -182 | 25 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: Mexico looked impressive defensively in its colossal 1-0 win over Germany, while South Korea looked pretty feeble in its 1-0 loss to Sweden. The Mexicans can take the lead for good in this group with another win though and while that may in fact occur, I do definitely feel that this matchup/game has the feel of a lower-scoring “chess match,” rather than a high-scoring, wide-open “shootout.” The teams: The Mexicans scored early against the Germans in their opening game upset, and then turned their attention to a more defensive style, a tactic which worked brilliantly. Mexico is expected to put out the exact same line-up here, so it’s hard to imagine the offensively challenged Koreans putting up much of a fight in this one. South Korea was held without a single shot on goal by Sweden. The Korean’s were looking for the Swede’s to make the first mistake, but they simply didn’t make any. South Korean star Heung-min Son looked very average. The Korean’s though did look stout defensively, as Sweden would score its lone goal via a VAR awarded penalty. The pick: The Koreans won’t be going down without a fight and I think they’ll make Mexico work throughout this one. When you add it all up, there’s no question in my mind that this one has “defensive battle” written all over it. Play the “under.” |
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06-23-18 | Tunisia v. Belgium OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: Belgium will look to pad its score here as it comes in on a huge run, unbeaten since a 2-0 defeat to Spain back in September 2016. Since then it’s gone 20 straight without suffering a defeat. Belgium managed to make it past Panama in its opener, while Tunisia suffered a late 2-1 loss to England. The teams: Belgium currently sits atop Group G after its 3-0 win over Panama. Romelu Lukaku scored twice in the convincing victory and he now has eight over his last six games. Kevin de Bruyne would assist on both of Lukaku’s goals. Wahbi Kharzi will be expected to do a lot more for Tunisia today. Kharzi, a striker at Rennes, has the quality to make an impact in this one though. Ferjani Sassi would net the lone goal in the crushing loss to England. The pick: It’s all or nothing for Tunisia obviously, as it comes in without a victory over its last four matches. Lukaku though plays very similar to England’s Harry Kane, who had two goals in the win over Tunisia. This one has the feel of a wide open “track meet,” rather than a slower-paced “chess match.” Play the over. |
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06-22-18 | Royals v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: A few years ago, Danny Duffy and Dallas Keuchel were the two hottest hurlers on the planet. Oh how the times have changed. That said, each has the track record and pedigree to turn things around in 2018 and I think we’re in store for a bit of a “duel” on Friday night. The pitchers: Duffy is so far 3-7 with a 5.55 ERA. Duffy will be eager to reverse his fortunes here after getting shelled for seven runs off seven hits and three walks over six innings while striking out five against the Astros on Saturday. Across 15 starts Duffy owns a 1.55 WHIP and a 69:40 K/BB. Also note that he’s 2-1 with a 4.24 ERA in all “night” games. Keuchel is so far 4-8 with a 4.15 ERA. Keuchel comes in off a strong outing against the Royals on Saturday, giving up two unearned runs off six hits with one walk over six innings while striking out five and winning his first game since mid May. To go along with his sub-par 4.15 ERA, Keuchel also sports a 71:23 K/BB. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but KC has seen the total go “under” the number in 20 of 33 on the road this year, while Houston has seen the total go “under” in eight of ten as a home favorite in the -250 to -330 range. I look for these two determined starters to battle deep. Play the “under.” |
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06-22-18 | Nigeria v. Iceland OVER 2 | Top | 2-0 | Push | 0 | 3 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: Nigeria is coming off a disappointing 2-0 loss to Croatia. However, after the Croat’s dominated Argentina 3-0 yesterday, perhaps that opening setback doesn’t look so bad. The Super Eagles will be eager to get untracked here as they look to open up their offensive attack and gain some momentum. Iceland will be looking to take advantage and to grab a full three points here after it went to a historic 1-1 draw with Argentina. And with Argentina now eliminated, Iceland can clinch at least second spot with an outright victory. The teams: Nigeria has now lost four of its last five matches. Expect to see some changes on the field from Nigeria today, as Leicester City striker Kelechi Iheanacho will himself be expected to make an immediate offensive impact. It’s interesting to note that Nigeria actually created more chances that Croatia in its opening game loss, but it managed to only find the target twice. Iceland will be attacking today. Keep your eyes on Gylfi Sigurdsson, who has scored more goals than anyone currently on the squad. Alfred Finnbogaso scored the lone goal against Argentina. The pick: As great as Iceland’s draw was with Argentina, it simply won’t mean as much if it can’t back it up with a three-point win here. Iceland has in fact not won in five matches, as it’s draw with Argentina was it’s second straight. With both teams desperate for a victory and each looking to push the pace from start to finish, the correct call is the “over” in my opinion. |
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06-21-18 | Padres v. Giants UNDER 7.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 23 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: Two teams which can struggle to put runs on the board at times square off against a couple of capable starters. In my opinion, this one sets up as a classic “duel.” The Padres go with Tyson Ross, while the Giants go with Madison Bumgarner. The pitchers: Ross is so far 5-4 with a 3.51 ERA. Ross comes in off a difficult loss to the Braves on Thursday, giving up three runs off three hits while striking out four over six frames. Ross’s velocity was up on his fast-ball to over 91 MPH and he’ll now look to improve upon his respectable 3-2, 3.11 ERA night record. Bumgarner is so far 0-2 with a 4.67 ERA. Bumgarner most recently allowed three runs off five hits with four walks while striking out three over six innings in a loss to the Dodgers on Saturday. Bumgarner continues to try and work himself back into game shape, but he certainly has the track record and pedigree to get things turned around quickly. The pick: The Padres have struggled on the road this year with a 16-19 record. They’ve also struggled to plate runs away from friendly confines, having seen the total go 11-23 on the road. Bumgarner faces the perfect opponent to get back on track, while I also expect Ross to continue his steady progression. Add it all up and this one has “under” written all over it. |
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06-21-18 | Saskatchewan v. Ottawa OVER 50 | Top | 17-40 | Win | 100 | 20 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: The Roughriders will hope to open the season with a 2-0 record after beating the Toronto Argonauts handily in Week 1. Ottawa will have different plans obviously as it kicks off its 2018 campaign The teams: Saskatchewan has won four straight on the road dating to last year. QB Zach Collaros had 203 yards and a TD last week, to go along with zero INT’s. Duron Carter and Caleb Holley combined for 83 receiving yards. Jerome Messam though leads a strong running attack which posted 111 yards last week. The Redblacks were 8-9-1 last year, but they’ll be looking to improve those numbers with QB Trevor Harris, who helped his team finish third in the league in total points scored last season. The pick: It’s a quick turnaround for the Roughriders, who have to travel across the country for this one. Take it for what you will, but Saskatchewan has seen the total go “over” the number in 12 of its last 19 non-conference games. This one has the feel of a wide open “shootout,” rather than a “chess match.” Play the “over.” |
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06-19-18 | Red Sox v. Twins UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams can both put runs on the board in a hurry, but I think this one sets up as a classic “duel” in the opener of this three game set. The Red Sox go with ace Chris Sale, while the Twins go with Jose Berrios. The pitchers: Sale is so far 6-4 with a 2.75 ERA. Sale comes in off another strong outing against Baltimore on Wednesday, giving up one run off two hits and four walks over six innings while striking out nine in the victory. Sale’s back on track and he’ll now look to improve upon his already impressive 4-2, 2.56 ERA record on the road. Berrios is so far 7-5 with a 3.51 ERA. Berrios received a no-decision in his last start against the Tigers despite allowing only one run with seven strikeouts over six innings. Berrios continues to impress and he’ll also be looking to keep the momentum rolling and improve upon his tiny 0.95 WHIP and fantastic 91:15 K/W over 89.2 frames of work this season (note that Berrios is 5-2 with a 3.12 ERA at home this season as well.) The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston has seen the total go “under” in 22 of 39 this year on the road, while Minnesota has seen the total go “under” in 18 of 31 at home. This number is a little high, play the “under.” |
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06-19-18 | Sky v. Mystics UNDER 169.5 | Top | 60-88 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: Two teams hopeful for a victory go head-to-head in WNBA action on Tuesday night, but for a number of different reasons I think this one has defensive battle written all over it. The teams: Washington is a deep team filled with talent. Allie Quigley leads Washington with 15.5 points per game, while Courtney Vandersloot adds 6.2 assists. Cheyenne Parker is a force in the paint and averages eight rebounds per night. Washington will be looking to take advantage of familiar surroundings. Elena Delle Donne leads the scoring charge with 18.3 points per game, while Natasha Cloud directs the show with 4.6 assists per night. Note that Donne also leads the nightly charge on the glass with 6.3 boards per game. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago has seen the total go “under’ the number in three of its last four against good offensive teams which average 77-plus points per night, while Washington has seen the total go “under” in two of its last three as a favorite. This one has the feel of more of a “chess match,” with a lot of half court sets on offense, instead of a run and gun “shootout.” This number is a little high, play the “under.” |
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06-18-18 | South Korea v. Sweden OVER 2 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a big game for both sides after Mexico’s win over Germany in World Cup Group F. While neither team is known for its offensive prowess, I believe each will open things up and I look for this one to fly over this low total, sooner rather than later. The teams: Sweden reached the World Cup after a 1-0 upset over Italy in the play-offs. That victory is now known as the “Miracle of Milan,” and the Swedish will be determined to prove that it was no fluke. South Korea reached the big tournament in Russia after finishing top of its final group, with a pivotal victory over fellow World Cup finalist Japan. Both teams will be ultra-motivated here as well after a poor run through the friendlies, as Sweden drew both World Cup warm-ups 0-0 in June against Denmark and Peru, while South Korea was beaten by Bosnia-Herzegovina and Senegal in pre-World Cup friendlies. The pick: Sweden enters a major tournament for the first time without the services of Zlatan Ibrahimovic, but most believe that has in fact made the Swedish a stronger unit. South Korea is led by dynamic Tottenham striker Son Heung Min, who had 18 goals for the Euro club this year. This one has the feel of a “track meet,” rather than a “chess match.” Play the over. |
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06-17-18 | Mercury v. Aces UNDER 164 | Top | 92-80 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: The Mercury played on Saturday night and suffice it to say, I think Phoenix will come in a little flat-footed in the second game of the back to back. Las Vegas has struggled with game-to-game consistency all year and the last thing it can do is to turn this one into a “track meet” and expect to “hang” with Phoenix. When you add it all up, this number seems a little high. The teams: Phoenix is led by Brittney Grier, with 20.8 points per game. Dian Taurasi is also a big contributor, leading the team with 4.4 assists. Grier also dominates the glass for the team with 7.3 boards per night. Las Vegas is led by A’ja Wilson with 20.3 points per night. Lindsay Allen directs the show with an average of 4.3 assists per night. A’ja Wilson also gets the job done on the boards with 7.3 per night. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Phoenix has seen the total go “under” the number in four of its six on the road already this year, while Las Vegas has seen the total go “under” in both games that it’s already played in this season after a loss by ten points or more. Play the “under.” |
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06-17-18 | Phillies v. Brewers UNDER 8 | Top | 10-9 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: Both of these teams can struggle to put runs on the board at times and that was certainly the case again in the Phillies 4-1 win yesterday. With Philadelphia sending its ace Aaron Nola to the hill and with the Brewers countering with the improving Chase Anderson, I fully expect runs to be at a premium again this afternoon. The pitchers: Nola is so far 8-2 with a 2.27 ERA. Nola most recently struck out ten and gave up one run over seven innings in a victory over the Rockies on Tuesday. To go along with his elite ERA, note that Nola also sports a minuscule 0.93 WHIP. Anderson is so far 5-5 with a 4.13 ERA. Anderson most recently went seven scoreless against the Cubs on Tuesday, striking out six and allowing only one hit. While his ERA is pretty “mediocre,” note that Anderson comes in with a sharp 1.17 WHIP, while holding his opposition to a meagre .217 batting average. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Philadelphia has seen the total go “under” the number in 20 of 34 against teams with winning records, while Milwaukee has seen the total go “under” in 22 of 35 against clubs with winning records. This number is a little high, play the “under. |
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06-17-18 | Switzerland v. Brazil OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: Brazil is the favorite to win this group and this tournament. Switzerland though will be risking life and limb to try and pull off the upset. With both teams pushing the pace, the prudent move is the “over” in my opinion. The teams: Brazil rolled through qualifying, including big outright victories over Argentina, Uruguay and Chile. Brazil also won its three international friendlies, including a 1-0 win over Germany. The Swiss booked their way to Russia through the UEFA playoff-spots, but underestimating Switzerland would clearly be a big mistake as it comes in ranked sixth in the World. The Swiss would post three wins while drawing with Spain 1-1 in the lead up to the World Cup. The pick: Neymar Jr returning to the line-up has given Brazil a big boost and he’ll be looking to put on a show in his team’s opening game. Xherdan Shaqiri of Liverpool will be leaned upon heavily for the Swiss and he should have his opportunities as well. When you add it all up, the “over” is definitely the correct call in this one. |
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06-16-18 | Giants v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: Madison Bumgarner has so far been pretty “mediocre” since returning from injury for the Giants, while Alex Wood has struggled of late for the Dodgers. These are two pitchers which have enjoyed a lot of success throughout their careers and clearly neither can be happy at where they are at this point of the 2018 campaign. I firmly believe though that their focus/hunger will prove to be the difference in this total, as everything points to a classic “duel” on Saturday night. The pitchers: Bumgarner is so far 0-1 with a 4.76 ERA. Bumgarner most recently allowed four runs off six hits and one walk over 5.1 innings in a no-decision to the Marlins on Monday. It was only the veterans second start of the season and clearly he still has some rust to shake off. Note that Bumgarner had a very respectable 3.26 ERA on the road last year though. Wood is so far 1-5 with a 4.43 ERA. Wood was removed after 4.2 innings of work against the Giants last Saturday after dealing a minor leg injury. Wood has admittedly struggled of late, but remember that he was 16-3 with a 2.72 ERA last overall last season. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA has already seen the total go under the number in a whopping 16 of 21 this season against left-handed pitching. I predict these starters battle deep into the latter frames and I look for this total to fall under at the end of the night. |
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06-16-18 | Marlins v. Orioles OVER 9 | Top | 5-4 | Push | 0 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: While these teams combined for just two runs in the Marlins 2-0 upset victory on Friday, Saturday’s interleague contest definitely sets up as a “slugfest” in my opinion. Miami goes with the erratic Wei-Yin Chen, while Baltimore goes with confirmed “gas can” Alex Cobb. The pitchers: Chen is so far 1-3 with a 6.13 ERA. Chen most recently was smashed for four runs off six hits and four walks over 4.1 innings in a no-decision against San Francisco on Monday. Chen has now given up ten earned runs over his last 10.1 innings of work spanning three starts. Note that he’s been terrible on the road as well with an 0-3, 10.31 ERA record. Cobb is so far 2-8 with a 7.23 ERA. Cobb most recently gave up nine runs off 11 hits and one walk while striking out five over 3.2 innings in a loss to Toronto on Sunday. To go along with his brutal 7.23 ERA, note that Cobb also sports a terrible 1.77 WHIP and 37:14 K/W over 56 innings of work. Additionally note that he’s 0-3 with a 5.71 ERA at home. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but note that Miami has already seen the total go over the number in 10 of 14 this year as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while Baltimore has seen the total go over in five of eight this season as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. This one has “offensive fireworks” written all over it. |
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06-16-18 | Iceland v. Argentina OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -100 | 46 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: Group “D” has been dubbed the “Group of Death” in the 2018 World Cup. This group includes Iceland, Argentina, Croatia and Nigeria. Argentina is favored to win the Group with Lionel Messi on board. Iceland has plenty of momentum itself after knocking off England in the 2016 Euros as a +795 underdog. The break-down: Argentina though would book its trip to the big tournament after a last second victory over Ecuador. It’s significant to note as well that Argentina would recently lose to Spain 6-1 in March, so there’s no question that there are questions surrounding the Group D favorite. Iceland is the smallest nation by population to ever qualify for the World Cup finals and it would follow up its impressive 2016 Euro run by coming out of a group which featured Croatia, Ukraine and Turkey. The pick: Iceland will be looking for another big upset to open the 2018 World Cup, as it catches Argentina looking extremely vulnerable. This match features a lot of offensive talent, which I believe will lead to this one sailing well above the posted number. Great value on the “over.” |
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06-15-18 | Toronto v. Saskatchewan OVER 52 | Top | 19-27 | Loss | -107 | 58 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: Two teams with big expectations for the 2018 season collide on Friday night and in my opinion, this one has “shootout” written all over it. The teams: Toronto won the 105th Grey Cup in 2017, its third championship since 2004. Ricky Ray returns as QB, along with playmaking WR’s SJ Green and Armanti Edwards. The Argos also feature a dynamic RB in James Wilder Jr. Overall Toronto would finish with 5,777 passing yards and it was considered one of the best “quick strike offenses” in the league. Defensively the Argos were also pretty good, a unit led by Bear Woods and Marcus Ball which would go on to produce 14 sacks. The Roughriders finished 10-8 last season. Big things are expected from QB Brandon Bridge, who has the keys to the offense now that veteran Kevin Glenn is gone. Bridge will be looking to get Duron Carter and Naaman Roosevelt involved early and often, a duo which combined for 2,000 yards and 16 TD’s last season. The offense also looks strong with RB Tre Mason, an Auburn standout. The defense was a strength as well, as it would allow a second best 430 points overall last season. The pick: But the Roughriders will be looking to push the pace here, as they’ve had recent success against the Argos, having taken three of the last four in the series. Clearly the defending champs won’t be rolling over though, as they’ll be looking to put on a show for the home town crowd, while also sending a message to the rest of the league. This one has the feel of a “track meet,” rather than a “chess match.” Play the “over.” |
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06-15-18 | Reds v. Pirates UNDER 9 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: Neither team is known for its offensive prowess, so both the Reds’ Matt Harvey and the Pirates’ Chad Kuhl catch a bit of a “break” on Friday night. This number is slightly too large in my opinion. The pitchers: Harvey is so far 1-4 with a 5.97 ERA. Harvey comes in off a loss to the Cardinals on Friday, allowing five runs and three walks with five strikeouts over six innings. Harvey has been given another chance in the rotation to try and “right the ship,” and while that may or may not happen, I will point out that the Reds have seen the total dip below the number in ten of 15 already this season as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range and in 17 of 28 against right-handed starters. Kuhl is 4-4 with a 3.95 ERA. Kuhl most recently gave up three runs off eight hits and two walks while striking out six over 5.1 innings in a loss to the Cubs on Friday. Kuhl is 0-2 over his last three trips to the hill, despite allowing only six runs spanning 17.1 frames. Kuhl though has to be feeling confident here as he’s 2-1 with a 3.78 ERA at home this season. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Pittsburgh has already seen the total go under the number in all three home games that it’s played in this season when the total in the contest is set between 9 and 9.5 and in 16 of 26 against the division. Because of all of the listed factors above, play the “under.” |
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06-14-18 | Giants v. Marlins OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 105 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: Both of these starting pitchers has looked decent at times this year and also horrible in others. I’m expecting these starters to get the hook early and a result, the “over” is the correct call in my opinion. San Francisco goes with Dereck Rodriguez, while the Marlins go with Dan Straily. The pitchers: Rodriguez is so far 1-1 with a 5.25 ERA. After a decent outing against the Phillies in his debut, Rodriguez predictably came back down to Earth against the Nationals on Saturday, allowing five runs off six hits with three walks. While Miami is a favorable matchup usually for most pitchers, I still think the book is still out on the Giants’ rookie hurler. Straily is so far 2-2 with a 4.08 ERA. Straily most recently gave up four earned runs over 3.2 innings in a no-decision to the Padres on Saturday. Note that Straily owns a poor 7.11 ERA at home, compared to 2.67 on the road. The pick: Both starters come in off horrible performances and in my opinion, I believe it’s “foreshadowing” for more ineptitude in this one as well. I expect each to get chased early and as a result, I’m playing the over. |
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06-14-18 | Saudi Arabia v. Russia UNDER 2.25 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: Russia is hosting the 2018 World Cup, so it received an automatic bid to the Tournament. Saudi Arabia would finish up as a runner up to Japan in the Asian qualifying group. The breakdown: Russia was actually kicked out of the group stage of the FIFA Confederations Cup last year and it comes into the tournament having with varying results, most recently beating South Korea 4-2, before then drawing with Spain. Clearly nerves will be “high” for the hosts, as they’ll be looking to avoid an epic collapse in front of the home town crowd. Saudi Arabia is actually ranked ahead of Russia in the FIFA standings (63 compared to 64), but it comes in as a significant dog to knock off the hosts on Opening night. The pick: Russia has netted just one goal in its two most recent home fixtures, while Saudi Arabia has failed to score in two of its last four away games. The play on this one is the “under.” |
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06-12-18 | Reds v. Royals UNDER 10 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: The Reds beat the Cards 6-3 at home on Monday and I think they’ll carry that offensive momentum over here. The Royals on the other hand will be looking to get back on track after a 3-2 loss at Oakland last night. Neither team is known for its offensive prowess, meaning the under is the correct move in my opinion. The pitchers: Sal Romano gets the call for the visitors and he’s so far 3-7 with a 6.23 ERA. Romano most recently allowed five runs and a walk over five innings while striking out six in a loss to the Reds on Wednesday. Romano has been poor of late, but a date against the anemic Royals is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked in my estimation. Ian Kennedy is so far 1-6 with a 5.76 ERA and he’s being handed the ball by the home side. Kennedy though comes in off perhaps his best outing of the year, giving up one run off seven hits and three walks with five strikeouts over five innings in a no-decision to the Angels on Wednesday. Like his counterpart today though, I believe that a date against the light-hitting Reds is just what he’ll need to get back on track. The pick: Take it for what you will, but the Reds have seen the total go under the number in 15 of 22 already this season following a win, while the Royals have seen the total go under in 25 of 41 following a loss. Play the under. |
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06-11-18 | Giants v. Marlins UNDER 7.5 | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
analysis soon The set-up: It’s the opener of a three-game set between these National League opponents and in my opinion, this one has “duel” written all over it. It’s southpaw vs. southpaw on Monday night, as San Francisco goes with Madison Bumgarner, while Miami goes with Wei Yin Chen. The pitchers: Bumgarner is 0-1 with a 3.00 ERA. Bumgarner finally returned from injury on Tuesday and he looked decent against the hard-hitting Diamondbacks by allowing two runs, while striking out three and walking none over three innings in what turned out to be a no-decision. Note that Bumgarner owned a 3.26 ERA on the road last year. Chen is 1-3 with a 5.86 ERA to this point. Most recently the leftie gave up two runs off six hits with two walks and two strikeouts over 4.1 innings in a no-decision against the Cardinals on Wednesday. Chen has been a disaster on the road this year (0-3, 10.31), but he’s been “lights out” at home (1-0, 1.06). The pick: Take it for what you will, but San Fran has already seen the total go “under” the number in 18 of 34 on the road, while Miami has seen it go “under” in 17 of 30 at home this season. Expect these two starters to fight into the latter innings and for this total to fall “under” at the end of the night. |
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06-10-18 | Yankees v. Mets OVER 7 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: The Yanks have taken the first two games of the sub-way series. Yesterday the Yankees came from behind to win 4-3. While that contest stayed below the posted number, I think that Sunday’s finale sets up as more of a “slug-fest.” The Yanks go with Luis Severino in this one, while the Mets hand the ball to Seth Lugo. The pitchers: Severino is 9-1 with a 2.20 ERA. Most recently Severino gave up one run over eight innings in a win over Mariners on Monday. Let’s face it, Severino has been downright dominant this season and it’s basically impossible to say anything negative about the right-hander. This play however is more about the overall “situaiton.” Lugo is 1-1 with a 2.04 ERA. Lugo has been used as a reliever this season and he’ll make this start in place of the injured Noah Syndergaard. Over his last two appearances he’s thrown a total of 87 pitches. Lugo is not expected to see many innings in this one, which puts added pressure on the Mets bullpen. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Yankees has already seen the total go over the number in six of eight this season as a road favorite of -175 or more, while the Mets have seen the total soar over the number in five of their last seven against right-handed starters. I think the Yanks take advantage here and while I’m not ready to lay such a steep price, this one definitely has “offense” written all over it. Play the over. |
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06-09-18 | Astros v. Rangers UNDER 9.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams combined for ten runs in the Astros victory yesterday, but I believe we’ll see a much lower-scoring duel on Saturday night. The Astros hand the ball to Charlie Morton, while the Rangers go with Mike Minor. The pitchers: Morton is so far 7-1 with a 2.84 ERA. Morton will be looking to return to form after his first loss of the season, giving up six runs off nine hits over 5.1 innings to Boston on Sunday. No need to panic if you’re a Morton fan though I don’t think as he owns elite numbers across the board still, including the 2.84 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP and 92 K’s overall. Note as well that he’s 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA on the road. Minor is 4-4 with a 5.76 ERA so far. Minor most recently gave up four earned runs off six hits over five innings while striking out two in a 6-1 loss to the Mariners on Thursday. Minor’s ERA leaves everything to be desired, but he does own a respectable 1.35 WHIP thus far. Note that Minor has been at his best at home this year as well with a 3-2, 4.11 ERA record. The pick: I think it’s significant to note that Houston has seen the total go “under” the number in 16 of 27 against the division this year, while Texas has seen the total go “under” in 22 of 34 against divisional opponents. This number is just a little high, play the under. |
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06-08-18 | Yankees v. Mets UNDER 7 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: It’s the “Subway Series” for the first time this year and in my opinion, everything points to a classic “duel” in the first game. The Yankees will hand the ball to Masahiro Tanaka, while the Mets counter with their ace Jacob DeGrom. The pitchers: Tanaka is 7-2 with a 4.79 ERA so far. Tanaka most recently gave up four runs off eight hits with one walk over 5.1 innings while also striking out seven in a victory over Baltimore on Saturday. Tanaka has admittedly been “hit or miss” this season, but I’m expecting the hard-throwing right-hander to be at his best in this high-profile matchup. More than anything though this pick is based on the sheer dominance of Jacob DeGrom (4-0, 1.49) who received a no-decision despite allowing only one run off seven hits and two walks over seven innings while striking out 13 against the Cubs on Saturday. DeGrom now owns a Senior Circuit-low 1.49 ERA and his 1.04 WHIP has to be considered elite. Also note that he owns a fantastic 98:21 K/W over 72.1 frames of work. The pick: Fortunately for the sometimes volatile Tanaka, he faces an opponent which has struggled with offensive consistency all year. And especially it’s seemed whenever the Mets have had their “ace” on the mound. This one has “pitchers duel” written all over it. Play the under. |
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06-07-18 | Dodgers v. Pirates UNDER 8 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams played to a wild, high-scoring slug-fest on Wednesday night, but in my opinion Thursday’s afternoon matchup sets up as more of a lower-scoring “duel.” In this one the Dodgers send Dennis Santa to the hill, while the Pirates will go with Jameson Taillon. The pitchers: Santana is so far 1-0 with a 12.27 ERA. Santana was thrown to the wolves in his first big-league start, as he’d be called in in relief at Coors Field where he’d be smashed for five runs off six hits over 3.2 innings. However, the Dodgers were mashing the ball in that game and Santana managed to pick up the victory in the end. Over ten starts in the minors Santana posted a 2.54 ERA and 65:16 K/W over 49.2 innings. But this pick is based mainly on the improved play of Taillon, who is 3-4 with a 3.97 ERA. Taillon most recently struck out six over eight scoreless with just one walk in a win over the Cards on Friday. Taillon now owns a superb 1.16 WHIP and a sharp 60:18 K/W over 65.2 innings. The pick: LA has seen the total go under in 11 of 15 already this season when the total in the contest is set at either 8 or 8.5, while Pittsburgh has seen the total go under in 15 of 25 “day” games. Play the under. |
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06-06-18 | Brewers v. Indians OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -101 | 6 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: What’s the first thing that comes into your head when you think about these two teams? For me its big time offensive fireworks. But that wasn’t the case on Tuesday night though as Cleveland came out on top of a lower-scoring pitchers duel in the 3-2 decision. However, a higher-scoring slug-fest would appear to be in the cards on Wednesday afternoon though as a couple of suddenly struggling starters collide. The pitchers: The Brewers go with Chase Anderson, who is 4-4 with a 4.45 ERA. Anderson comes in off another shaky outing, allowing four runs off five hits and a walk over 5.2 innings in a loss to the White Sox on Friday. Anderson has now failed to go at least six frames in five of his last seven starts and it’s important to note that he’s a poor 0-2 with a 5.14 ERA on the road to this point. The Indians go with Carlos Carrasco, who is 6-4 with a 4.50 ERA. Carrasco most recently gave up six runs off seven hits and three walks over 3.2 innings in a loss to the Twins on Friday. Carrasco has completely fallen off the rails of late, posting a disturbing 6.37 ERA over his last seven seven starts to go along with a terrible 1.8 HR/9. Note that he owns a 5.59 ERA at home and an even worse 5.90 ERA in all “day” games. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Milwaukee has already seen the total go over the number in seven of 12 road games this year when the total is set between 8 and 8.5, while Cleveland has seen the total go over in 11 of 16 home games when the total is set between 8 and 8.5. These two erratic starters get chased early and this one flies over the number sooner, rather than later. |
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06-05-18 | Marlins v. Cardinals UNDER 8 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -117 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
The set up: St. Louis would take five of seven from Miami last year. The Marlins come in having lost seven straight, while the Cardinals remain competitive, having gone 31-25 so far this season and 6-3 in their last nine. The pitching match-up: Jose Urena gets the call for the Marlins and he’s so far 0-7 with a 4.41 ERA. Urena has been unlucky so far this year though, as his team continues to struggle at the plate. Despite his pedestrian ERA, note that he does own a sharp 1.17 WHIP. Urena has had success at Busch Stadium as well, going 1-0 with a 3.60 ERA. The Cards go with Carlos Martinez, who returns from a stint on the disabled list with a 3-2, 1.62 ERA record. Martinez owns a 1.08 WHIP over eight starts this season and he’s 1-1 with a 1.48 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in five starts at home. The pick: Clearly Urena has thrown well enough of late to earn a victory, unfortunately for the hard-throwing right-hander his team has had difficulty giving him any sort of offensive support whatsoever. Take it for what you will, but Miami has already seen the total go under the number in 22 of 40 this year against clubs with winning records, while St. Louis has seen the total go under in 15 of 20 against teams with losing records. Expect these two starters to battle and for this total to stay under once it’s all said and done. |
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06-05-18 | Orioles v. Mets OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
The set up: This is the opener of a short two-game interleague matchup. The Orioles come in desperate as they’ve lost seven straight, not surprisingly owning the worst record in all of MLB. The Orioles’ bats come in rested though, as after losing 8-5 to the Yanks on Saturday, they were rained out on Sunday. The Mets have been terrible of late as well, coming into this contest having lost four straight and sitting at 27-30 overall, bad enough for fourth place in the NL East. Both of these line-ups though will be eager to “get off the schneid” as they each face a couple of confirmed “gas cans” on the mound tonight. The pitching match-up: Alex Cobb gets the call for the Orioles and he’s so far 1-7 with a 6.80 ERA. He also owns a horrible 1.81 WHIP and over his last three starts he’s been destroyed for nine earned runs spanning 10.2 innings of work. Additionally, opponents are hitting a whopping .356 off him. Jason Vargas gets the nod for the Mets and he’s 2-3 with an 8.53 ERA thus far. Vargas comes in off a a decent outing in his last start, giving up no runs over five innings. Despite that performance though, Vargas has still been rocked for 19 earned runs over 12.1 innings spanning his last three starts. The pick: No need to overanalyze this one. Both teams are desperate for a spark and each comes in well rested. These pitchers have been a couple of the worst in the league and when you combine those two factors, the correct move is the “over” in my opinion. |
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06-04-18 | Royals v. Angels UNDER 8.5 | Top | 6-9 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: The Royals lost their series with the A’s over the weekend and fell 5-1 in yesterday’s finale, while the Angels would hold on for a 3-1 win over the Rangers on Sunday. Both of tonight’s starters have struggled at times this season, but I believe the conditions are right for a lower-scoring under on Monday night. The pitchers: Kansas City goes with Danny Duffy (2-6, 5.71 ERA) who comes in off his best start of the season, allowing one run off four hits while striking out four over six innings in an unfortunate no-decision against Minnesota on Tuesday. As mentioned above, Duffy has admittedly struggled this so far this season (54:31 K/W over 64.2 innings), but take it for what you will, as note that he’s consistently been at his best in all “night” games with a 2-1, 3.72 ERA. LA goes with Nick Tropeano (3-3, 3.80) who comes in off a strong outing himself, holding the Tigers to two runs off seven hits with no walks and five strikeouts over six innings in the eventual win. Tropeano comes in on top form, having given up three runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. I’ll point out as well that Tropeano has been solid in all night contests by posting a 3.90 ERA this season. The pick: KC has seen the total go under in 15 of 26 on the road already, while LA has seen the total dip below the number in 16 of 30 at home. I think there are enough significant factors pointing towards the “under” as the correct call in this one. |
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06-03-18 | Cavs v. Warriors OVER 214.5 | Top | 103-122 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
The set up: I had a play on the “over” in Game 1. We’d need a little luck to cash that ticket, as a bone head play by JR Smith of the Cavs near the end of regulation would then cause the game to head to an extra period, indeed pushing the total over the number once and for all. These teams had 112 points at half time, but they’d slow down in the second half and combine for 102. LeBron James had 51 points, eight boards and eight assists for the Cavaliers, while Stephen Curry had 29 points, six boards and nine assists for the Warriors. The break-down: It’s essentially “do or die” for the Cavaliers almost at this point, as a 2-0 hole to this sharp-shooting Warriors team will likely be just too much for “The King” to overcome. Cleveland won’t be going down without a fight obviously. Note that after hitting only 43.1 percent from the floor in the Indiana series, the Cavs are now shooting 46 percent entering Game 2 of the Finals. Note that Kevin Love was also a bright spot for Cleveland in Game 1 with 21 points and 13 boards. The Warriors could care less about any mental issues the Cavaliers are going through right now and they’ll be doing everything they can to kick Cleveland while its down. Golden State comes into Game 2 shooting 47.4 percent from the floor in the playoffs. Note that the Warriors hit 19 of 20 from the line in Game 1, while committing just eight turnovers. Klay Thompson was a stand out as well in the victory with 24 points, while Draymond Green added 13 points, 11 boards, nine assists, five steals and two blocks. The pick: I predict very little defense being played today by Cleveland as it’ll be forced to match pace with a Warriors offense that can “smell the blood in the water.” Take it for what you will as well, but Cleveland has seen the total go over the number in 17 of 25 already this season after allowing 115 points or more. This number is a little low, play the over. |
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06-03-18 | Phillies v. Giants UNDER 8 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
The set up: When I play a total in Major League Baseball, the primary factor I’m looking at is the starting pitchers. And in this particular contest, a couple of red hot hurlers collide on Sunday afternoon, making the “under” the correct O/U move in my opinion. The pitching match-up: The Phillies go with Jake Arrieta, who is so far 5-2 with a 2.16 ERA. Last year with the Cubs Arrieta was 14-10 with a 3.53 ERA. Most recently the right-hander would go seven shutout innings against the Dodgers on Tuesday, allowing six hits and two walks to go along with five strikeouts. Over his last two starts Arrieta has posted a 12:1 K/W and note he’d go on to finish the month of May with a minuscule 0.90 ERA spanning 30 innings of work. Derek Rodriguez has been named the starter for the Giants in this one, as he’s been cleared to play after taking a liner off his right leg in the first inning of his last start. Rodriguez threw a bullpen session on Friday and note that he was sharp in his time at Triple-A Sacramento by posting a 3.40 ERA and 1.20 WHIP across 50.1 innings. The pick: Take it for what you will, but not only has Philadelphia seen the total go under the number in 17 of 26 this season in all games when the total in the contest is set at either 8 or 8.5, but it’s also seen it go under in eight of 14 against southpaws (San Fran has seen the total go under the number in 18 of 33 vs. right-handed starters as well.) Look for these two starters to go deep into this one and play the under. |
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06-02-18 | Golden Knights v. Capitals OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: Washington hasn’t been to the Finals in 20 years, but it finally got over the hump by defeating its nemesis (Pittsburgh) and then posting a convincing seven-game series win over Tampa to advance. The Golden Knights of course are re-writing NHL history every night, advancing to the Cup Final in their very first year of existence. Las Vegas took Game 1 by a score of 6-4, before the Capitals then responded with 3-2 victory in Game 2. The goaltenders: The Knights turn to veteran Marc-Andre Fleury in net and he’s so far 13-4 with a 1.88 GAA in the playoffs. Washington sends Braden Holtby between the pipes and he’s 13-7 with a 2.19 GAA to this point. Other key figures: James Neal scored his fifth goal of the season for the Knights in Game 2 (the first of the contest), but Alexander Ovechkin quickly answered for the visitors with one himself, his 13th of the postseason. The pick: The Capitals come into this one averaging 3.48 goals per game in the playoffs, while allowing just 2.62. Vegas is averaging 3.06 goals in the postseason, while allowing 2.00. Whichever team’s goaltender plays better is likely going to win this series, but after the lower-scoring Game 2, I think the shift in venue will lead to a higher-scoring Game 3. And take it for what you will, but Vegas has seen the total go over the number in all seven games this year in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent. Get ready for a lot of “red lights” in this one and play the over. |
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06-02-18 | Pirates v. Cardinals UNDER 9 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: Pittsburgh and St. Louis played to a lower-scoring under in the Pirates 4-0 victory yesterday and while this afternoon’s contest might have a few more runs than that, I still think that everything points to another “duel” on Saturday. The pitchers: The Pirates send Chad Kuhl to the mound and he’s 4-3 with a 3.94 ERA and 1.35 WHIP over 61.2 innings overall. In his most recent start Kuhl would hold the Cubs to one run over six innings. The Cardinals hand the ball to Luke Weaver, who is 3-5 with a 4.63 ERA and 1.29 WHIP over 58.1 innings of work. Weaver most recently allowed four runs over four innings in a loss to Milwaukee. Weaver has had varying success against the Pirates throughout his limited time, holding them to six runs over 17 innings of work. The pick: Pittsburgh is averaging 4.73 runs per game, while the Cards are averaging 4.39. Take it for what you will, but I still think its worthy to note that Pittsburgh has seen the total dip under the number in five of its last seven after shutting out an opponent, while St. Louis has seen the total go under in six of its last ten after getting shutout. Both Kuhl and Weaver have looked brilliant at times this season and very pedestrian in others, but each comes in looking to take advantage of a couple line-ups that are currently struggling to produce. Play the under. |
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06-01-18 | Rangers v. Angels OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: LA comes into this one in third place in its division after splitting its last ten games overall. The Angels are 30-26, which sets them 4.5 games back of the Astros. The Rangers have won six of their last ten overall, but they’ll be eager to get untracked here after falling 6-1 in Seattle last night, splitting their four-game series with the M’s. The pitching matchup: Texas sends out the venerable Bartolo Colon, who is so far 2-2 with a 3.55 ERA and 0.93 WHIP over 11 appearances, nine starts this year. Colon most recently gave up three runs off five hits in a no-decision against the Royals. Colon faced the Angels already this season and he’d go three innings of relief and allow one run. Last year though Colon gave up nine runs off seven hits over 2.5 innings against LA. LA will hand the ball to 21-year old Jaime Barria, who is 4-1 with a 2.97 ERA over six starts this season. Barria’s peripherals though suggest that his early numbers are unsustainable, with a poor ground ball rate of 39.3 percent to go along with an 11.4 percent HR/FB rate. The pick: Barria could be in luck today though as LA has been mashing the ball of late, posting 11 home runs over its last seven games. Texas though is eager to get back on track here as well after last night’s poor effort. When you add it all up, this one has high-scoring “slug-fest” written all over it. Play the over. |
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05-31-18 | Marlins v. Padres OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: The Marlins and Padres opened a four-game series on Memorial Day, entering as two last-place clubs (Miami in the NL East and San Diego in the NL West). The Marlins won 7-2 on Monday but the Padres have bounced back with consecutive wins, 9-5 on Tuesday and 3-2 last night, when they scored twice with one out in the ninth inning to pull out the one-run victory. The Marlins managed only three other hits in the loss (all singles), giving Miami its fifth loss in six contests (Marlins are now 20-35, 12 1/2 games out of first ). The 24-33 Padres are in last place but just 6 1/2 games out in the NL West and will now vie for the series win when they host the Marlins on Thursday for the finale of their four-game set. The pitching matchup: Lefty Wei-Yin Chen (1-2, 5.22 ERA) will get the nod for the Marlins, opposed by the Padres' Jordan Lyles (1-1, 3.83 ERA). Chen is coming off a strong outing against Washington on Saturday, however, he settled for a no-decision despite allowing just one run and three hits over a season-high 7 1/3 innings. He has yielded three runs over 17 innings in three starts (1.59 ERA) after being tagged for nine runs in three innings of a 13-4 road loss to the Chicago Cubs on May 9. Chen won his only career start against the Padres on June 13, 2016, even though he surrendered four runs in six innings at San Diego. Lyles has struggled since registering 10 strikeouts while allowing just one hit in 7 1/3 scoreless innings of a victory over Colorado on May 15, yielding nine runs over 10 1/3 innings in his last two starts. He was able to escape with no-decisions in both outings, despite giving up 14 hits and six walks (Sd actually won both contests). Lyles owns a 1-1 record and a ghastly 7.00 ERA in three starts and two relief appearances against Miami in his career. The pick: The highlight of Lyles' season was his second start on May 15 against the Rockies at Petco Park, when he was perfect for 7 1/3 innings, the second-longest perfect-game bid in franchise history. However, in his two starts since, Lyles has given up nine runs on 14 hits and six walks with eight strikeouts in 10 1/3 innings (7.84 ERA). What's more, Lyles will be making his sixth career appearance and fourth start against the Marlins on Thursday and he owns a 7.00 ERA, a 1.72 WHIP and a .292 opponents' batting average against Miami. Chen's numbers have improved drastically over his last three starts (see above) but I won't ignore his 5.22 ERA for the season. Make the Over an 8* play. |
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05-31-18 | Cavs v. Warriors OVER 214 | Top | 114-124 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
The set: It's the Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors in the NBA Finals for the fourth straight season, as the series begins Thursday night in Oakland at Oracle Arena. Golden State won its three home games by a total of 50 points in last year's Finals, avenging a dramatic 4-3 loss the previous year (led the series 3-1) with a 4-1 romp past the Cavaliers for its second championship in three seasons. The Cavaliers were seeded just fourth in the Eastern Conference and needed seven games to get past the Pacers in teh 1st round. Cleveland then shocked the top-seeded Raptors in a four-game sweep, before needing to win Games 6 and 7 in the conference finals to dispatch the Celtics. Meanwhile, Golden State lost two of three to Houston in the regular season and were relegated to second seeding behind the Rockets in the Western finals (Warriors won their first two series in five game). Like Cleveland, Golden State needed to win Games 6 and 7 to reach the NBA finals (Warriors won Games 1 and 7 in Houston). The Warriors and Cavaliers met twice in the regular season but the games came within a 21-day span in the first half of the season, with Golden State winning both. Golden State will be seeing Cleveland for the first time since the Cavaliers jettisoned almost half their roster at the trade deadline in order to bring in four Western imports, George Hill from Sacramento, Rodney Hood from Utah and Jordan Clarkson and Larry Nance Jr. from the Los Angeles Lakers. Both teams open with key players with questionable status. Cleveland: Kevin Love suffered a concussion in Friday's Game 6 of the Eastern Conference finals against the Boston Celtics and has yet to pass the protocol. Head coach Tyronn Lue doesn't know if he will be available. Love was seen on the practice floor Wednesday and Lue did indicate that he will start the contest if he is cleared to play. Love's presence is needed, as LBJ can't "do it alone" against this team. James is averaging 34.0-9.2-8.8 assists in a stellar postseason but only (Love 13.9 & 10.0) is in double figures among Cleveland's other players. Golden State: Veteran defensive stopper Andre Iguodala (left leg) will miss his fifth consecutive contest, leaving Golden State without a player who typically shadows James. "Well, he was MVP of the series in 2015, largely because he took that role on of guarding LeBron, but also because of what he did offensively," head coach Steve Kerr told reporters in reference to Iguodala's importance. Kerr said the duty of guarding James will be spread among at least four players, forwards Kevin Durant and Draymond Green and guards Klay Thompson and Shaun Livingston. The pick: Cleveland's defense has been shaky all season and Golden State's trio of Durant (29.0), Curry (24.8) and Thompson (20.5) don't figure to be contained. Cleveland comes in off the team's last three games averaging only 184.3 PPG. Meanwhile, Golden State, the NBA's highest scoring team, comes in off four straight unders with those contest averaging only 193.3 PPG. Expect that to change in Game 1. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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05-29-18 | Cardinals v. Brewers UNDER 9 | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: The Milwaukee Brewers opened a three-game series with the St. Louis Cardinals with Monday's 8-3 victory. The 35-20 Brewers have now won four straight and are 7-1 on their current homestand. Milwaukee enters the second contest of the series tonight, having scored eight or more runs in three consecutive games, one shy of tying the club record. Monday's loss snapped a two-game winning streak for the Cardinals, who have now lost nine of 15 to slip five games back of the Brewers at 28-23, as well as a half-game behind the second-place Chicago Cubs (28-22) The pitching matchup: The Cardinals send Michael Wacha (5-1, 2.88 ERA) to the mound and the Brewers counter with Zach Davies (2-4, 4.74 ERA). Wacha lost his season debut back on March 31 but has only allowed more than two runs in just one of his nine starts since then, going 5-0 in that span (Cards are 7-2). He recorded his third straight quality start Wednesday, allowing two runs (one earned) over 6 2/3 innings in a no-decision against Kansas City. What's more, Wacha is 4-0 with a 4.60 ERA in 10 games (nine starts) against Milwaukee. Zach Davies was Milwaukee's ace in 2017, going 17-9 with a 3.90 ERA (Brewers were 20-13 in his starts, giving him MLB's 12th-best moneyline mark at plus-$880). However, Davies spent nearly a month on the disabled list with a rotator cuff injury in 2018 and will make just his second start since returning in tonight's game. He was hardly sharp in his return to the rotation last Thursday against the New York Mets, allowing four runs and six hits and failing to record an out despite facing three batters in the fifth inning of a 5-0 loss. Davies is 2-1 with a 4.22 ERA in seven starts against the Cardinals. The pick: Wacha's been terrific for the Cards in 2018 and enters tonight's contest having held opponents to two runs or less over his last seven starts, while posting a 1.94 ERA during that stretch thanks to an improved curveball to complement the rest of his arsenal. I expect Davies to be much better in his second start since coming off the DL and will make the Under a 10* play. |
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05-28-18 | Warriors v. Rockets OVER 208 | Top | 101-92 | Loss | -104 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: The Golden State Warriors found the form that made them NBA champions in the second half on Saturday in Game 6 and used it to run away with a 115-86 win and force a Game 7 in the Western Conference finals. The Rockets jumped out to a 39-22 lead after the first quarter and held a 61-51 edge at the break, but the Warriors held them to 25 points in the second half in the 29-point win. Thompson led the way with 35 points (9 of 14 on threes), while Curry added 29. "We'd like to get off to a better start," Warriors head coach Steve Kerr told reporters. "But we like -- we like our formula. We like our defense against these guys, and we feel confident that we can carry this through to Game 7 on the road and continue to make things as difficult as possible on Houston without fouling." Houston claims it is confident heading home, despite the beating it took in the second half on Saturday and the uncertainty surrounding the health of PG Chris Paul. "If you asked us when we were in the Bahamas this summer, this team together, you know, Western Conference Finals, Game 7 to go to the finals against the Warriors, we'll take that," Rockets star James Harden told reporters. "So, nothing changes for us. We know what we have to do." Golden State: Thompson was terrific in Game 6 (see above). "I feel like we're the best team in the world and most fun team in the world to watch when we're pushing that ball, getting defensive stops and making plays," Thompson told reporters. "We've got too much talent not just to hit singles like coach always says. Trust the next man ahead of us. It will end up working in our favor most of the time." Thompson added four steals to his performance and his teammates credited his work on Harden at the defensive end for sparking the offense. However, KD (the team's top scorer in the playoffs at 28.7 PPG), made just 6 of 17 from the floor. PF Draymond Green scored only four points but he collected 10 rebounds, nine assists, five blocks and four steals in Game 6. Golden State has survived without veteran swingman Andre Iguodala, who has missed the last three games of the series and is questionable for the finale with a left lateral leg contusion. Center Kevon Looney (sore left toe) is also questionable, but the Warriors have gotten little out of him, as he's averaging 4.0 & 5.3 in the three games Iguodala has missed. Houston: Paul sat out Game 6 with a hamstring injury suffered in the final minute of Game 5 and remains uncertain for Game 7. Houston committed 21 turnovers without their point guard on the floor in Game 6, including nine by Harden, who finished with 32 points and nine assists but continued a trend of poor shooting from beyond the arc with a 4-of-12 effort. After scoring 41 points in a Game 1 loss in which he made 5 of 9 three-pointers, Harden is 10 of 56 (17.9%) on threes the last five games of this series. It's been feast or famine this series for starting forwards Ariza and Tucker, plus much of the same for reserve guard Gordon. However, those three will need to come up big tonight, for Houston to win. Team doctors will re-evaluate Paul on Monday, with the decision on his availability to be determined by tipoff. The pick: The Warriors have never lacked confidence in this series, even while falling into a 3-2 deficit. However, their decisive victory in Game 6 served to reinforce the reality of what happens when they are at their best. Golden State shot 49.4 percent from the floor, including 16 of 38 on three-pointers in Game 6, while producing 26 assists on 43 field goals,. That's the kind of play the Warriors have shown these last few years, running roughshod over the NBA. For the Rockets to win (I think that's possible), they will need to outscore the Warriors. After four straight "umders" in this series, I say make the Over a 10* play in Game 7. |
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05-28-18 | Phillies v. Dodgers OVER 8 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: The Philadelphia Phillies have surprised almost all pundits as their 29-21 record has them just a half-game out of first place in the NL East, trailing only the equally surprising 30-21 Atlanta Braves. However, both teams are well aware that the powerful Washington Nationals are lurking nearby at 29-22. Philadelphia lost two of three over the weekend to the Toronto Blue Jays (of AL East) but despite those setbacks, the Phillies are where they are because of the team's impressive 19-6 record outside of their division (Philadelphia is just 10-15 versus the NL East in 2018!). The Phillies begin a four-game series against the host Los Angeles Dodgers this Memorial Day. The five-time defending NL West champs opened the season 16-26, matching the team's worst since moving from Brooklyn in 1958, but the Dodgers have won eight of 10 to move within 3 1/2 games of the lead in the NL West. Still, 24-28 LA's moneyline mark of minus-$,2357 ranks dead-last among all 30 teams, $573 worse than the 29th-ranked team (Baltimore, which is 17-36). The pitching matchup: Vince Velasquez (4-5, 4.18 ERA) takes the mound for Philly and he'll be opposed by LA's Brock Stewart (0-0, 3.72 ERA). Velasquez registered nine strikeouts in his last start, although he saw his three-start winning streak come to an end Tuesday against Atlanta after giving up two runs - one earned - on six hits and three walks while throwing 89 pitches over 4 1/3 innings (Braves won 3-1). He has failed to make it through five innings in three of his last six starts, although he is averaging 14.05 strikeouts per nine innings over his last three outings. Velasquez is 0-2 with an 11.45 ERA in three career games (two starts) against the Dodgers. Stewart has made 24 appearances but just nine starts the previous two seasons for LA but did enough in the eyes of manager Dave Roberts to earn another start after not factoring in the decision Tuesday against Colorado. He permitted two runs on five hits and a walk in four innings, as the Dodgers won 5-3. Stewart worked in relief in each of his previous three appearances of 2018, giving up two runs and five hits across 5 2/3 frames. His aonly previous appearance against the Phillies came last season, when he allowed a run in one inning of relief. The pick: The Dodgers are finally starting to find their rhythm with eight wins in their last 10, with the team looking much more like a cohesive unit offensively. Let's not forget that LA won a MLB-best 57 home games in 2017. However, let's also not forget that the Phillies own the majors' best winning percentage (.760) versus teams outside of their division. With two questionable starting pitchers, make the Over an 8* play. |
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05-28-18 | Rays v. A's UNDER 8 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: The Oakland Athletics get set to open a four-game series with the Tampa Rays on a busy Memorial Day in MLB. The series will cap a 10-game homestand for Oakland, which won 2-1 over Arizona on Sunday, evening its record at 3-3 on the current homestand. Oakland allowed a total of one run in back-to-back victories over Arizona, getting a complete-game shutout from Daniel Mengden on Saturday before Frankie Montas worked six solid innings in his season debut on Sunday, followed by three relievers who had four strikeouts over three perfect innings. Tampa Bay is coming off its third win in four games, an 8-3 triumph over Baltimore that concluded a 3-3 stretch at home. The Rays yielded three runs in the top of the first inning but rallied for six in the third to secure the series win. The Rays are 25-26 but already 10 games back in the top-heavy AL East (Boston & New York). The A's are 28-25 in the AL West, which is 5 1/2 games back of the defending World champion Astros. The pitching matchup: Tampa will send Chris Archer (3-3, 4.68 ERA) to the mound and he will be opposed by Oakland's Trevor Cahill (1-2, 2.75 ERA). Archer has pitched well this month, allowing fewer than three runs in four of his five starts but has just one win to show for his efforts, while the Rays have lost four of the five. He settled for a no-decision against Boston on Wednesday (a 4-1 Red Sox win), despite giving up just one run and four hits over six innings. Archer has made two career starts versus Oakland, going 1-0 while yielding five runs on 13 hits and seven walks with 16 strikeouts in 11 1/3 innings. Oakland's Cahill also did not factor in the decision his last time out, when he allowed two runs and four hits in seven innings against Seattle on Tuesday (Mariners won, 3-2). He is winless since his season debut against the Chicago White Sox back on April 17 (a 10-2 Oakland win), despite surrendering three ERs or fewer in each of his next five outings. Cahill owns a 2-1 record and 4.50 ERA in four starts and one relief appearance versus Tampa Bay. The pick: Archer just seems to be a hard-luck pitcher, whose solid pitching efforts just never seem to result in personal victories. Meanwhile, Cahill not only owns a very good 2.75 ERA but also an outstanding 0.97 WHIP plus opponents are only batting .205 against him. Make the Under an 8* play. |
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05-27-18 | Giants v. Cubs UNDER 10 | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: The San Francisco Giants snapped a three-game losing streak with a 5-4 victory over the Cubs on Saturday. After struggling to score runs of late, the Giants scored as many runs as they had in their previous three games, all losses. The Giants also improved to 23-4 this season in games when they scored at least four runs. The Cubs won Friday's opener 6-2 and the teams meet tonight on ESPN for the rubber match of this three-game set. The Cubs own the better record this season (26-22 to 25-27) but Chicago sits 4 1/2 games out of first in the NL Central, while teh Giants are within two games of first in the NL West. The pitching matchup: Ty Blach (3-4, 4.37 ERA) will get the nod for the Giants and Tyler Chatwood (3-4, 3.74 ERA) for the Cubs. Blach has struggled recently, failing to get through the fifth inning in each of his last three starts. The 27-year-old gave up four runs and eight hits in 4 1/3 innings of a no-decision against Colorado last time out but the Giants are 2-1 in his last three outings. Blach is 2-0 with a 3.21 ERA in two career starts against the Cubs, both of which occurred last season. Yu Darvish was Chicago's major off-season signing but he hasn’t yet paid many dividends plus he won’t be on the mound as scheduled for the finale of their three-game series against the visiting San Francisco Giants on Sunday night. The Cubs had to shuffle their rotation for the rubber match of the set, as Tyler Chatwood will move up a day. Chatwood’s control woes continued in his last start, as he issued six walks while giving up four runs in just 2 2/3 innings of a 10-1 loss to Cleveland. Chatwood is 7-4 with a 2.84 ERA in 17 career games (16 starts) against the Giants. The pick: The Giants won for just the second time in their last 11 road contests on Saturday, putting them in position to win their first series at Wrigley Field since 2014. Meanwhile, the Cubs have lost five of their last six home games. We don't have two "name starters" in this one but Blach has won both previous starts against the Cubs and Chatwood owns a 2.84 ERA in 17 career appearances against the Giants. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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05-27-18 | Diamondbacks v. A's OVER 8 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -102 | 4 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: The Arizona Diamondbacks had lost seven straight both overall and on the road before recording a 7-1 victory over the Oakland A's in the series opener on Friday. However, they were silenced by Daniel Mengden on Saturday, notching only a pair of singles in a 3-0 setback. Arizona is now 1-7 as it concludes a dismal nine-game road trip Sunday against the Athletics. The D'backs have lost 14 of their last 16 overall contests and are now back to looking for answers, as the team's strong 24-11 start to the season seems 'light years' in the past. Mengden tossed his second career complete game - and shutout - as he improved to just 2-11 lifetime at Oakland Coliseum while the Athletics raised their record to 2-3 on their 10-game homestand. Oakland managed only five hits Saturday but all went for extra bases, including solo HRs by Matt Joyce, Matt Olson and Chad Pinder. The A's check in at 27-25, a half-game game better than Arizona's 26-25 mark. However, while the D'backs are just a half-game out of first in the NL West, the A's are 6 1/2 back of the first-place Astros in the AL West. The pitching matchup: Zack Greinke (3-3, 3.71 ERA) will get the start for Arizona and will be opposed by Oakland's Frankie Montas (2017: 1-1, 7.03 ERA). Greinke had his four-start unbeaten streak halted last time out (D'backs were 3-1), as he served up a season-high three HRs en route to allowing four runs over six innings in a 4-2 loss at Milwaukee on Monday. He did register nine strikeouts in that defeat, marking the fourth time he has reached that total in 10 starts this season. Greinke will take the mound having gone 1-3 with a 6.94 ERA in his four road starts in 2018, with the only win coming in an 8-7 victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers (allowed four ERs in 6 1/3 innings). Montas is being recalled from Triple-A Nashville to make his third major-league start, and his first for Oakland, in order to give Trevor Cahill an extra day of rest. The 25-year-old Montas came out of the bullpen for the Athletics last season after going 0-2 in two starts and five relief appearances for the Chicago White Sox in 2015. He has never has faced Arizona and doesn't bring much of a resume into this contest, having gone 1-5 with a 4.39 ERA in nine starts in the minors this year. The pick: If the Diamondbacks are to win their first series since May 4-6 against the Houston Astros, then Greinke is going to have to do something he hasn't done all season, and that's pitch well on the road (see above for a reminder). However, he has had success against Oakland in his career, going 6-1 with a 3.12 ERA in 15 appearances (11 starts), including going 3-0 with a 2.70 ERA in nine games (six starts) in Oakland. Still, I won't ignore Greinke's road numbers (6.94 ERA) or expect Montas to pitch well in this "spot start," with his resume (limited ML experience and unimpressive minor league numbers). Make the Over an 8* play. |
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05-26-18 | Rockets v. Warriors OVER 212 | Top | 86-115 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
Thge set-up: The Houston Rockets are on the brink of the franchise's first trip to the NBA Finals since 1995, something which seemed very implausible after they lost Game 3 in Oakland 126-85. However, the Rockets have won two straight low-scoring games between the NBA's top-two offensive teams. The Warriors claimed their largest lead of Game 4 at 82-70 when Stephen Curry assisted on a Shaun Livingston dunk at the 10:45 mark. That play produced the 14th and final assist of the evening for Golden State. The Rockets would go on to hold the Warriors to 12 points in the fourth quarter (Golden State missed its final five FG attempts) to earn a 95-92 victory. The Rockets then took a 3-2 series lead with a home 98-94 win in Game 5. However, the win didn't come without a huge price, as PG Chris Paul had to leave with a hamstring injury in the final minute of that contest. He was ruled out of Saturday's Game 6 on Friday. It's obviously not something we wanted," Rockets head coach Mike D'Antoni told reporters before Friday's practice. "I hate it for him above all. He's practically won us the past two games. But it's a great opportunity for other guys, and we have plenty to choose from. We'll be ready." As for the Warriors, who represented the West in the last three NBA Finals, they are not panicking about being one loss away from an early vacation. "I feel great about where we are right now," Golden State head coach Steve Kerr told reporters after Game 5. "That may sound crazy, but I feel it. I know exactly what I'm seeing out there, and we defended them beautifully (Thursday night). We got everything we needed. Just too many turnovers, too many reaches, and if we settle down a little bit, we're going to be in really good shape." Houston: The Rockets have won the last two games despite a historic shooting slump from likely league MVPJames Harden, who ha snow missed his last 20 three-point attempts after going 0-of-11 from beyond the arc on Thursday. Harden scored a series-low 19 points on 5-of-21 shooting in Game 5. Eric Gordon has been a key contributor to the Rockets' success off the bench in the series. He has single-handedly outscored Golden State's reserves 38-16 in the last two games, both of which Houston has won to reverse what had been a 2-1 deficit in the series. Center Clint Capela recorded his first double-double of the series with 12 points and 14 rebounds on Thursday. Golden State: Kevin Durant scored a team-high 29 points in Game 5 but was 8-of-22 from the floor and got caught in isolation several times instead of moving the ball. Durant is averaging 31.2 points on 46.5 percent shooting in the series after shooting 51.6 percent during the regular season.Thompson was listed as questionable for Game 5 but scored 23 points. Curry had 22 and Green 12 & 15. However, Andre Iguodala (knee) sat out for the second staright game and is questionable for Game 6. Looney started in his place these last two (both losses) and has added little (a combined eight points and nine rebounds). Steve Kerr admitted Friday that he had "no idea" whether Iguodala would be available for Game 6, while at the same time noting that "he's gotten incrementally better each day." Golden State's bench totaled just four points in Game 5 and it's hard to imagine that happening again. The pick: With or without Iguodala, history says the Warriors will be tough to beat under the circumstances they'll be experiencing in Game 6. Since Kerr took over as coach in 2015, the Warriors are 36-6 at home in the postseason, including an NBA-record 16-game winning streak that was snapped in their 95-92 loss in Game 4. They've won 26 of their last 32 playoff games regardless of the site and have a 3-1 record under Kerr in potential elimination games, with the lone loss coming in Game 6 of the 2016 Finals against Cleveland. Hard to imagine teh Warriors losing here but this is a HUGE number. After the league's two-best offensive teams have just played games totaling just 187 and 192 points, I'm making the Over a 10* play. |
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05-26-18 | Braves v. Red Sox UNDER 10.5 | Top | 6-8 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: Mookie Betts hit his major league-leading 17th home run last night, one of four Red Sox players to homer in a 6-2 series opening over the Atlanta Braves. Boston's victory was the team's seventh in its last nine games, giving them a ML-best 35-16 record (lead the 32-15 NY Yankees by one game in the AL East). The surprising 29-20 Braves just lost two of three to the Phillies and with their third loss in their last four last night, now lead the Phils by just a half-game in the NL East. Some big news for Boston is, second baseman Dustin Pedroia played in rehab games on Wednesday and Thursday. The Red Sox activated Dustin Pedroia from the disabled list Friday and he is expected to make his season debut Saturday, after left knee surgery. The pitching matchup: Sean Newcomb (5-1, 2.39 ERA) will get the start for the Braves and will be opposed by fellow lefty, Boston's Drew Pomeranz (1-2, 5.97). Newcomb's outstanding early season run continued last Saturday against Miami, as he won his fourth straight start while allowing just one run in six innings. It is the only run he has allowed in 25 innings during his four-game winning streak, during which opponents have managed only nine hits. Newcomb is a Massachusetts native and was in line to make a homecoming start for the Atlanta Braves on Friday night at Fenway Park. However, manager Brian Snitker moved Julio Teheran into the Friday start against the Boston Red Sox and he did it for good reason. Newcomb has thrived when given an extra days' rest, going 4-0 with a 1.91 ERA while making seven of his previous nine starts with an extra day off. Pomeranz was also pushed back in order to get in some side work during the week, but for different reasons. He completed only four innings in each of his last two starts, giving up a total of eight runs (seven earned) and walking as many (eight) as he struck out. The pitcher who was 17-6 (3.32 ERA & 1.18 WHIP) in 2017, now owns a 5.97 ERA and 1.78 WHIP after six starts, while opposing batters are hitting .302 against him The pick: No reason to think that Newcomb won't pitch well here, especially on extra rest (see above). Also, while Boston jumped out to a 17-2 start, the Red Sox are a modest 18-14 , since. As for Pomeranz, a strained forearm delayed his 2018 debut until April 20, but I'm not about to ignore how well he pitched in 2017 for Boston. Make the Under an 8* play. |
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05-25-18 | Mets v. Brewers UNDER 8 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 20 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: The Milwaukee Brewers began their 10-game homestand with a three-game sweep of the Arizona Diamondbacks, outscoring them 14-4. The surge landed Milwaukee in first-place in the NL Central but the team landed with a thud in its series opener against the New York Mets last night, managing only five singles in a 5-0 loss. Milwaukee now looks to bounce back Friday as it continues the four-game set with Ryan Braun back in the lineup. The former MVP recorded one of those singles last night, in his first game following a stint on the disabled list due to a back ailment. Meanwhile, the Mets pounded out 13 hits as they began their eight-game road trip on a positive note. Brandon Nimmo fell a HR shy of the cycle, as he went 4-for-4 with a walk and scored twice. New York had lost two straight prior to Thursday, scoring one run in each defeat, and had dropped three of its previous four on the road. Milwaukee is headed in the right direction at 31-20 on the season, after a 9-9 start. As for New York, the Mets opened 11-1 but last night's win leaves them a more modest 25-21. The pitching matchup: Noah Syndergaard (4-1, 2.91 ERA) takes the mound for New York, opposed by Milwaukee's Junior Guerra (3-3, 2.98 ERA). Syndergaard got a win in his season debut but allowed four runs. However, he has allowed three runs or less in each of his last nine starts. He is a modest 3-1 in those nine starts but the Mets are 6-3. It may be notable that he hasn't started on the road since April 26 in St. Louis (we'll see). Syndergaard has been dominant against Milwaukee in his career, going 2-0 with a 0.49 ERA and 0.71 WHIP in three starts (Mets are 3-0). Guerra appears to have overcome a pair of rough starts to start the month, allowing three runs over 10 1/3 innings while going 1-0 in his last two outings (2.53 ERA). However, Guerra has struggled at home, surrendering nine runs over 10 innings in back-to-back losses, after giving up one unearned run across 10 2/3 innings in his first two outings of 2018 at Miller Park. Guerra has permitted one run over 12 2/3 innings while going 1-0 in two career starts against New York (Brewers are 1-1). The pick: Despite Milwaukee's .608 win percentage (highest in the NL) and its three-game lead in the NL Central, the Brewers have been shut out a major league-high nine times this season. That hardly bodes well against Syndergaard, who owns a 2.91 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP and a 68-13 KW ratio. That's not mention his 0.49 ERA and 0.71 WHIP in three career starts against Milwaukee. Guerra is no Syndergaard but he's a solid part of a Milwaukee rotation which owns' MLB's second-best ERA (3.37). What's more, Milwaukee's bullpen ERA is a ML-best 2.46! Make the Under a 10* play. |
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05-24-18 | Warriors v. Rockets OVER 218.5 | Top | 94-98 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: The Houston Rockets allowed 126 points on 52.2 percent shooting in a 41-point loss in Game 3 but came out with a renewed passion on the defensive end in Game 4, evidenced by the team's play in the fourth quarter. Houston was staring at a 10-point deficit heading into the fourth quarter and if the Rockets couldn't get things turned around in the final 12 minutes. they would be returning home for Game in a 3-1 series hole. However, the fourth quarter of Game 4 provided a prime example of Houston's "renewed passion on the defensive end." The Warriors claimed their largest lead of the contest at 82-70 when Stephen Curry assisted on a Shaun Livingston dunk at the 10:45 mark. That play produced the 14th and final assist of the evening for Golden State. The Rockets would go on to hold the Warriors to 12 points in the fourth quarter (Golden State missed its final five FG attempts) to earn a 95-92 victory. "How we defend, how we pay attention to detail and how we go about playing defense. Tonight, in the fourth quarter when it mattered, we got stops. It let us get back in the game, it let us take the lead and it let us win." Meanwhile, Golden State head coach Steve Kerr blamed fatigue for his team's poor fourth-quarter performance but conceded that the Rockets were the better team down the stretch. "I felt like in the fourth quarter we just ran out of gas," Warriors coach Steve Kerr said. "Scored 12 points. Tried to buy a little rest for our guys, but yeah, they just outplayed us in the fourth and they earned it." Golden State: The Warriors held Houston to 39 percent shooting in Game 4 but still couldn't win. Golden State shot only 39.3% in the loss and while Curry had 28 points and KD added 27 & 12, Klay Thompson was held to just 10 points on 4-of-13 shooting. He now owns an average of 10.3 points over the last three games after going off for 28 in Game 1. Andre Iguodala (leg) sat out Game 4 and is questionable for Thursday. Golden State "went big" by replacing him in the starting lineup with the 6-9 Looney, who did little (four points on 2 of 6 shooting in 26 minutes). What's more, the Golden State bench contributed a modest 12 points. Houston: The Game 4 win returns the homecourt edge to Houston, which needs two wins over the next three games to knock the Warriors off their three-year reign as Western Conference champs. PG Chris Paul battled a foot injury in Game 4 but turned in his best scoring effort of the series with 27 points on 10-of-20 shooting. Harden led the way with 30 points, despite making only 3 of 12 three pointers. The pick: Golden State (No. 1) and Houston (No. 20 are the two-best offensive teams in the NBA but "get there" in very different ways. The Warriors paced the NBA in assist percentage (68.5) during the regular season, while conversely, the Rockets ranked 22nd at 55.7 percent, relying mostly on the isolation brilliance of James Harden and Chris Paul. I expect Golden State to bounce back in a big way but I also expect Houston's complimentary players Ariza, Tucker and Gordon to bounce back at home, as well. Eric Gordon scored 27 points in the last game played in Houston (Game 2) but went 3-of-16 from three-point range over the last two games. Ariza and Tucker combined 41 points in making 15 of 18 shots in Game 2 but then totaled only 25 points (on 6 of 19 shooting) in Games 3 and 4 in Oakland. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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05-23-18 | Cavs v. Celtics OVER 206 | Top | 83-96 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: The Celtics haven't lost at home this postseason, so to say it was shocking that Boston won Games 1 and 2 at home would not be fair. However, it was fair to say that tha manoer in whcih the Celtics won those first two games, was. Cleveland dropped the first two games by an average of 19.0 PPG and even a monster Game 2 effort by LeBron James (42 points, 10 rebounds and 12 assists) in Game 2 couldn't prevent a 13-point loss. However, the Cavaliers have recovered to even the Eastern Conference Finals at two games apiece with back-to-back wins at home. Cleveland steamrolled Boston 116-86 in Game 3 and follwoed with convincing 111-102 win in Game 4. LBJ was 17-of-28 shooting in Game 4 as he topped 40 points (44) for the second time in a three-game span. Veteran swingman Kyle Korver (14 points, three blocked shots) is 13-of-20 shooting with eight three-pointers over the past three games, while center Tristan Thompson (13 points & 12 rebounds) enjoyed his best showing of the series and third double-double of the postseason. Boston head coach Brad Stevens didn't get too wound up over Monday's 111-102 setback as he simplified the task staring at his team. "It's a best two of three to go to the NBA Finals. It doesn't get much better than that," Stevens said in Monday's postgame press conference. "In this deal, it's a blast to have to grit your teeth, get up off the mat and go after it again. That's part of what makes these guys on both sides special." Cleveland: There is always LeBron when we are talking about the Cavs but Korver's been terrific coming off the bench the last three games (see above), plus starting guards Hill and JR Smith stepped up at home. Can they do so on the road? A worry may be PF Kevin Love, who averaged just 11 points on 7-of-24 shooting in the two victories, after averaging 19.5 points in the two losses in Boston. He is shooting just 37.5 percent in the series. Boston: The Celtics won their two home games by average of 19 points but lost by an average of 19.5 points in their two road games. That's the story of Boston's 2018 postseason, going 9-0 at home but 1-6 on the road. "We missed a bunch of easy opportunities," shooting guard Jaylen Brown said of the Game 4 loss. "We made some bad turnovers and things like that. But we still had opportunities to get into the game and to win." Brown is averaging 20.3 points in the series and his 25-point effort in Game 4 was his third 20-point outing in the East finals. The pick: Neither team is completely healthy. Both Kevin Love and Jeff Green are playing with minor injuries for the Cavs, while the Celtics have been without Kyrie Irving, Gordon Hayward and Daniel Theis for the entire postseason, plus are also without backup point guard Shane Larkin. I guess the question is, "Did the Cavs figure things out while winning Games 3 and 4?" Cleveland did three games at Boston by an average of 30 points in last season's conference finals and were also 9-3 at TD Garden the last four regular seasons. However, this year's Cleveland team has often been burned by its poor defense and Boston's 9-0 home playoff record is hard to ignore. I'll make the Over a 10* play. |
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05-23-18 | Capitals v. Lightning OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -115 | 37 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: The Washington Capitals won Games 1 and 2 at Tampa to open a 2-0 series lead. However, the Lightning "returned the favor" by winning Games 3 and 4 in Washington, before taking Game 5 at home, for three straight wins. However, the Caps were able to put past playoff failures behind them with a 3-0 home victory in Game 6, setting up this Game 7 showdown, with the winner advancing to the Stanley Cup Finals, where the expansion Vegas Golden Knights await. The Capitals sit just one win away from their first trip to the Stanley Cup Finals since 1998 but the team owns a 4-11 record overall and a 1-3 mark on the road all-time in Game 7s. In contrast, the Lightning are 5-2 (3-0 at home) in deciding contests. Washington: “I don’t think there’s (another) team I’ve ever had that I’d want to go into Game 7 with,” head coach Barry Trotz, who has coached 107 playoff contests in his career and 1,524 in the regular season, told reporters. “This team has done a lot of special things this year. It’s grown. It continues to do that. What an opportunity. … We’ll see if we can earn the right to keep playing.” Washington outhit the Lightning 39-19, many of those leading to its 17 takeaways in Game 6. Right wing T.J. Oshie scored two of the three goals Monday and has seven points in the series while Nicklas Backstrom set up a pair of tallies for his first points in three games since returning from a hand injury. Center Evgeny Kuznetsov had an assist Monday to extend his point streak to nine games and has 23 overall - a franchise playoff record. Tampa Bay: The Lightning will have to raise their level of play after being outshot by an average of more that 10 per game in the series and take pressure off goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy, who has turned aside 131 of 139 attempts while winning three of the last four contests. Tampa Bay has been outshot 209-145 in the series, managing only 24 in Game 6, and have not scored a goal since 33 seconds into the second period of Game 5 on Saturday night. Right wing Nikita Kucherov leads the team with 17 points in the playoffs but he and captain Steven Stamkos each managed just one shot on net in Game 6 while combining for a minus-3 rating. The pick: Can Washington superstar Aex Ovechkin finally take his team to the Cup finals for the first time in his tenure? Or, will Tampa Bay captain Steven Stamkos (four goals in the series) make it for the second time in four seasons? This is a tough call. Can one really trust Washington? Then again, maybe this is finally the Caps' year. What I don't see is a low-scoring game. Tampa Bay is the NHL's highest-scoring team (3.47 GPG) and Washington ranks 9th at 3.18 GPG. The Caps are 28-20 to the over on the road and Tampa Bay 29-19 to the over at home. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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05-21-18 | Padres v. Nationals UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-10 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: The Washington Nationals last won a baseball game back on Sunday, May 13 (6-4 at Arizona). That victory gave the Nats 13 wins in their previous 15 games. However, Washington then saw one game suspended and two more postponed due to Mother Nature to open last week. The Nats then lost three in a row Friday-Sunday to the LA Dodgers to fall four games off the NL East lead with a 24-21 record. Washington will now welcome the 20-28 San Diego Padres to town for a three-game series beginning Monday night. When the Washington Nationals visited San Diego from May 7-9, they won the first two games of a three-game series to move within 1 1/2 games of the National League East lead. At the time, the Nationals were on a bit of a run and the Padres were reeling with a 13-24 record. However, two weeks after that series, the Padres and Nationals meet again in Washington, D.C. and the fortunes of the two teams have changed a bit. Since winning that series finale at Petco Park to avoid being swept by the Nationals, the Padres have gone 7-4 and are riding a three-game winning streak. Meanwhile, the Nationals have gone 4-4, after losing a third straight game to the Los Angeles Dodgers on Sunday The pitching matchup: It's a 'battle of lefties' on Monday night, as the Padres' Robbie Erlin (1-2, 3.46 ERA) squares off against the Nats' Gio Gonzalez (4-2, 2.36 ERA). Erlin will be making his second spot start this season, as fellow lefty Joey Lucchesi nurses a hip injury. Erlin's first start of 2018 came way back on April 16 in a 10-3 loss to the Dodgers. Erlin lasted just three innings while allowing six runs (five earned) on seven hits. The bad news for San Diego (and good news for the Nats) is that Erlin has met the Nationals twice in his career (both at Nationals Park), where he has given up 17 runs, 19 hits and six walks with six strikeouts in 9 1/3 innings (that's a 16.39 ERA!). As for Gonzalez, he was saddled with the first of his two straight no-decisions on May 9 despite allowing one run on five hits over six innings against San Diego. He then received the same fate six days later, although he issued four walks to drive up his pitch count (111) against the New York Yankees in a suspended game. Gonzalez owns a 3-2 mark with a 3.21 ERA in seven career appearances against San Diego. The pick: Gonzalez is pitching well and deserves to pick up a win here. However, while Erlin's numbers (albeit in just two appearances) are awful against the Nats, Washington scored just seven runs in losing three games to the Dodgers this weekend at home. Washington batted only .149 in losing three straight to LA. What's more, Washington's top-two power hitters, Bryce Harper and Matt Adams, are slumping. Since leaving San Diego on May 9, Adams has hit only .143 and Harper is hitting .125 in the last eight games with just one HR and three RBI. Make the Under a 10* |
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05-20-18 | Indians v. Astros UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: The Indians and Astros play the rubber match of their three-game series tonight in Houston on ESPN. The Indians have homered in a season-high 10 straight games and took Saturday's contest 5-4. Corey Kluber struck out 10 batters over seven strong innings Saturday, giving him an AL-leading seventh win of the year. Kluber is the second starter in MLB after Washington's Max Scherzer, to reach the seven-win mark. Meanwhile, third baseman Jose Ramirez had two hits and improved to 10-for-22 with a pair of HRs and seven RBI during his six-game hitting streak. The Astros saw their three-game winning streak come to an end despite homers by Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman and Marwin Gonzalez. Despite just a 22-22 record, the Indians sit atop the AL Central by 2 1/2 games. Meanwhile, the 29-18 Astros lead the majors in run differential at plus-96 and enter Sunday two games up on the second-place Mariners in the AL West. The pitching matchup: Carlos Carrasco (5-2, 3.66 ERA) will head to the mound tonight for Cleveland, opposed by Houston's Lance McCullers Jr. (5-2, 3.63 ERA). Carrasco won 19 games last year and is off to a solid start in 2017. He is pitching on an extended five days’ rest after his last start on May 14 at Detroit, where he allowed three runs over 6 2/3 innings in a 6-3 loss. Carrasco has had a heavy workload, having thrown at least 110 pitches in four of his last seven starts, including three in a row. The 31-year-old owns a 3-1 record and 2.67 ERA in six career games (five starts) versus Houston, including 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in two outings at Minute Maid Park. McCullers turned in a solid outing but took the loss against the Los Angeles Angels last Monday, allowing two runs on four hits over six innings. He has 58 strikeouts in 52 innings and has only given up three HRs, including none in his last five starts. McCullers struggled in his only previous start against Cleveland, giving up five runs over five innings in a 7-6 loss on April 26, 2017. The pick: This is a pretty good pitching matchup and a check of the two teams' season records reveals that the Indians are 8-14 to the under in all road games so far in 2018, while the Astros are 9-15 to the under at home this season. Why over-think things? Make the Under a 10* play. |
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05-19-18 | Tigers v. Mariners UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -120 | 17 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: The Seattle Mariners and Detroit Tigers have played five times in 2018, with four of the five being decided by one run. Seattle opened a four-game home series with Detroit on Thursday, falling 3-2. However, the Mariners avenged that loss with a dramatic 5-4 victory last night. The Tigers jumped out to a four-run lead but the Mariners scored all five of their runs in an explosive seventh inning to improve to 10-7 in one-run contests this season. The Mariners now own 11 comeback victories on the season, tied for the third-most in the American League. The Tigers are 10-9 in one-run games and one of two teams who have played more such contests than Seattle, pulling into a tie with Tampa Bay for the most in the majors. The four-game set continues Saturday night with the Tigers sitting at 20-24 and the Mariners at 25-19. However, Detroit is just 1 1/2 games back in the AL Central, as no team in that division owns a winning record. Meanwhile, the Mariners are in the AL West, which features the defending world champion Astros, so Seattle sits three games back, despite its much better won-loss mark. The pitching matchup: Mike Fiers (4-2, 4.23 ERA) will take the mound for Detroit, opposed by Seattle lefty James Paxton (2-1, 3.52 ERA). Fiers comes in on a modest two-start winning streak, after allowing just one run on a solo HR and three hits across five innings in throwing a season-high 92 pitches in Monday's 6-3 home win over the Indians. Fiers has not walked more than one batter in any of his seven starts and is averaging a career-low 15.1 pitches per inning. However, in five career starts against Seattle, Fiers owns a 6.00 ERA. Surprisingly, he has yet to lose to the Mariners, going 1-0 with four no-decisions. Paxton followed up his no-hitter at Toronto on May 8 with his fourth consecutive quality start in a no-decision at Detroit on Sunday, allowing three runs on six hits in six innings (Mariners lost 5-4). Paxton reportedly dealt with food poisoning between starts but is 1-0 with a 1.61 ERA and 37 strikeouts over 28 innings in his last four outings, although Seattle is just 2-2 in those games. He is 2-1 with a 3.41 ERA in six starts against the Tigers. The pick: Paxton came into his own in 2017, as team ace "King Felix" dealt with injuries, going 12-5 with a 2.98 ERA. His 2018 season has already featured a no-hitter in Toronto on May 8, when he became the first Canadian to accomplish the feat in his native country. I've always liked Fiers and as noted above (see for a reminder), these teams have loved playing one-run games in 2018. Make the Under a 10* play.
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05-18-18 | Padres v. Pirates UNDER 7.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: The Pittsburgh Pirates improved to 15-6 at home following Thursday's 5-4 series-opening triumph over San Diego, notching their second straight one-run victory, giving themselves a 9-3 record in one-run games so far in 2018, including 6-0 at home.The 26-17 Pirates are a half-game up on the 26-18 Brewers in the NL Central and will continue their four-game series with the Padres tonight, looking for a ninth victory in their last 10 outings (Pirates are 5-1 two-thirds of the way through their nine-game homestand). As for the Padres, they are in last place in the NL West. However, there is some good news. After going 10-20 over March and April, San Diego is 7-8 so far in May.
The pitching matchup:Tyson Ross (2-3, 3.40 ERA) takes the mound for San Diego and he will be opposed by Pittsburgh's Ivan Nova (2-3, 5.01 ERA). Ross allowed only one run on three hits and two walks while fanning seven over six innings in a no-decision Saturday against St. Louis (Padres won 2-1). He enters this contest winless over his last five outings but while he's 0-2 in that span, the Padres are 3-2 in those contests. Ross has struck out 39 in 29 2/3 innings over his last five starts, while holding the opposition to one run three times over that span. Ross has five career starts vs. Pittsburgh, going 1-2 with a 3.29 ERA. Nova opened the season with five quality starts in six tries but hasn't been the same since an excellent eight-inning effort on April 26 (six hits / no runs,/ no walks / five Ks). He lost for the second time in three outings after getting roughed up for four runs across 5 2/3 innings by San Francisco on Sunday. He has now surrendered a total of 17 runs (14 earned) on 25 hits over his last 12 1/3 innings (that's a 9.95 ERA!). Nova is 1-1 with a 2.31 ERA in four career starts against San Diego, including 0-1 with a 4.09 ERA in two starts last year. |
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05-16-18 | Warriors v. Rockets UNDER 225 | Top | 105-127 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: The Rockets won the West by seven games over the second-place Warriors and took two of three regular-season meetings while averaging 117.3 PPG. Both Houston and Golden State reached the Western Conference Finals with 4-1 wins in the first two rounds of teh playoffs, setting up this "clash of titans." Game 1 was played Monday in Houston and while the Rockets led early by nine points, the game was tied at the half. However, in a span of about 2 1/2 minutes in the third quarter, the Warriors ripped off a 12-2 run. Then, a 13-4 spurt in the early 4th, led to a 119-106 Golden State win. In a flash, all Houston's hard work in i unrelenting charge to the best record in the Western Conference was torn asunder and rendered moot, as the home-court advantage that accompanied what the team had accomplished in the regular season was by the handiwork of Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson, Steph Curry and Draymond Green.The Golden Warriors outscored the Rockets by 13 points in teh second half and flashed supreme form in the opener and now look to take a 2-0 lead when on Wednesday. The Warriors outscored the Rockets by 13 points in the second half while recording a 119-106 win in Game 1. Meanwhile, the Rockets, who had labored hard down the stretch of the regular season to bypass the Warriors in the standings and guarantee that this anticipated series would open in Houston, must now win Game 2 or face what would likely be an insurmountable 'hill to climb!" Golden State: Kevin Durant scored 37 points and shooting guard Klay Thompson added 28, as second-seeded Golden State was in top form while outclassing James Harden and the top-seeded Rockets. in Game 1. Curry had a modest 18 points (but eight assists and six rebounds) plus Green scored just five points. However, Green added nine rebounds, nine assist, two blocks and two steals, while posting a plus-minus rating of plus-19, the best of any Warrior! Durant was 14-of-27 shooting in Game 1, as Golden State repeatedly isolated him to take advantage of mismatches with Houston defenders. Golden State shot 51.2% as a team, recording a 60.6 effective field-goal percentage in the series opener. That was par for the course even against the Rockets' exceptional defense, as Golden State produced a 61.8 effective field-goal percentage during the team's three regular-season meetings, the highest such mark against Houston by any opponent. However, it wasn't that the Warriors shot efficiently but rather the number of wide-open looks they generated by ball movement. Houston: Harden scored 41 points (has now reached 40 points three times this postseason) and added seven assists in the opener but didn't receive enough help from the supporting cast. "We're all in this together," Harden told reporters. "It doesn't matter who has a bad game or who is missing shots. ... Keep shooting your shot and being aggressive. We got this far doing that and having that mindset, so we're just going to continue it." Harden and coach Mike D'Antoni joked after Game 1 that he might need to ask Harden to score 55 in Game 2. He broke out of a three-point shooting funk by making 5-of-9 attempts after being just 6-of-32 over the final four contests of the second-round series against the Utah Jazz. Point guard Chris Paul had 23 points and 11 rebounds in the opener but only had three assists, as the Rockets were unable to crisply moving the ball in the half-court offense.
The pick: Obviously, the Rockets are in a "must-win" situation but one has to ask, are the Warriors just too good? I'll stick with the analysis I had in Game 1 (lost my "under call" by a half-point). NBA fans have anticipated this spectacle of the rim runs, fast breaks, a hail of three-pointers and sublime passing for months. However, for all their otherworldly talent, the Rockets and Warriors have no secrets. Even with Houston's James Harden and Chris Paul plus Golden State's magnificent scoring trio of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant, the series will be dictated by defensive might. Both teams closed the season ranked in the top-10 in defensive efficiency and each have ratcheted up their efforts in the playoffs. Golden State is first in defensive rating (99.3), the Rockets second (102.1). Make the Under a 10* play. |
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05-14-18 | Warriors v. Rockets UNDER 225 | Top | 119-106 | Push | 0 | 65 h 2 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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05-14-18 | Rays v. Royals UNDER 9 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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05-11-18 | Capitals v. Lightning UNDER 6 | Top | 4-2 | Push | 0 | 19 h 30 m | Show |
he set-up: The Washington Capitals are in their first conference final in 20 years, while the Tampa Bay Lightning are in for the third time in four years. Tampa Bay has dispatched New Jersey and Boston in five games each, while Washington has had a more difficult path to this point, rallying from an 0-2 deficit to beat Columbus, then again needing six games to eliminate the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins. The Lightning have 18 players that have a combined 273 conference final games of experience, while the Capitals total is 28 conference final games of experience. Will experience give Tampa Bay an (the?) edge or will Washington's motivation of waiting so long to get to this point in the postseason be a (the?) determining factor?
Washington: The Capitals edged the Penguins at Pittsburgh in Game 6 without standout center Nicklas Backstrom and he is day-to-day with an upper-body injury. He who owns 13 points in the playoffs and has been skating on his own while forward Andre Burakovsky (upper-body injury) practiced Thursday and is also considered day-to-day after missing the last 10 games. Captain Alex Ovechkin makes his first appearance in the conference final after recording a team-high eight goals in 12 playoff contests, and his club-best 15 points are one better than linemate Evgeny Kuznetsov - who scored the overtime winner in Game 6 at Pittsburgh. John Carlson boasts 11 points in the playoffs and fellow defenseman Brooks Orpik, who has appeared in 137 postseason games, leads the team with a plus-9 rating. Tampa Bay: The No. 1 line of Brayden Point, Tyler Johnson and Ondrej Palat, have limited their opponents' top threesome at even strength in the first two series and will likely get another test with the Tom Wilson-Kuznetsov-Ovechkin line. Right wing Nikita Kucherov leads the team with six goals and 12 points in the playoffs while linemate Steven Stamkos scored two of his three goals in the last three games. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy boasts a 2.20 goals-against average and .927 save percentage in the postseason. However, he was 0-3-0 versus the Capitals before winning two of three while posting a .930 SP against them in 2017-18.The pick: "If you're going to have success against really good teams, Pitt, Tampa, anybody going forward, you've got to be hard, you've got to be detailed, you've got to be compact, you've got to make good decisions, you've got to have an extremely high work ethic and high commitment," Capitals head coach Barry Trotz said. Trotz decided to bench the team's No. 1 goalie at the start of the Columbus series but after falling behind 0-2, returned to Braden Holtby, who owns a 2.04 GAA in the playoffs and is 9-3-2 with a .910 SP in 16 career games against the Lightning. Tampa Bay's Andrei Vasilevskiy has been sharp, allowing 2.20 GAA with a .927 SP plus tied for the NHL lead in shutouts with eight. Tampa Bay made headlines in the regular season with its high-scoring offense but the Lightning separated themselves from Boston with physical play, something that carried over from the opening series with New Jersey. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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05-08-18 | Pelicans v. Warriors UNDER 229.5 | Top | 104-113 | Win | 100 | 15 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: The Golden State Warriors have been to the last three NBA Finals (all against the Cavs), winning twice. The Warriors came up short in Game 3 in a 19-point loss, scoring a modest 100 points on 38.0% shooting (including 9-of-31 on threes). However, the Pelicans have seemed powerless to halt Golden State's assault in the other three games, as the Warriors have averaged 120.7 points in their three victories in the series. Golden State now looks to close out the Western Conference semifinals when it hosts the New Orleans Pelicans on Tuesday. New Orleans is insisting it won't roll over with its season on the line but ripping off three straight wins will be a daunting chore. "No, no. We've got to win one game at Oracle and that's the one that we play next," Pelicans head coach Alvin Gentry said in reference to Game 5 in Oakland. "That's as far as we need to look. Obviously it's a monumental task. It's been done before. As I said to the guys, we've just got to go play and you're not out until they win four games." New Orleans: The Pelicans suffered from poor shooting (36.4%) and ball-handling (19 turnovers) in the Game 4 loss. They have to do nbetter than that and naturally, will rely on Anthony Davis, who is averaging 26.3 points and 13.8 rebounds in the series plus has a double-double in all eight of the team's postseason games (29.6 & 12.8). Of concern is the fact that the Pelicans have burned their starters big minutes, with Anthony Davis (39.3) and Jrue Holiday (38.2) leading the series in minutes played. The New Orleans bench has not been up to the task, getting outscored 134-95 in the four games. "We do have guys that are playing heavy minutes," Gentry explained. "Really, all the starters are playing real heavy minutes. I thought it would be a good idea today to let their minds rest, their bodies rest." He had that in mind when he called off a Monday workout. The pick: Hard to imagine New Orleans coming back to win this series but that's not the question here. In fact, the Pelicans have played their best in the series when rested. The teams got two days off in Oakland after Golden State's 123-101 victory in Game 1 and the Pelicans rebounded with a strong effort in Game 2, falling just 121-116 on the road. Then after two more days off, New Orleans was re-energized at home and responded with its 119-100 triumph. However, the teams were then rushed back from a Friday night to a Sunday afternoon for Game 4, during which the Pelicans shot just 4 of 26 on three-pointers after having scorched the nets for 14 of 31 in the Game 3 win. The Pelicans don't have two days off here but they shouldn't be as tired with this schedule (Sunday afternoon game to a Tuesday evening one). Also, Golden St is just 19-26-1 ATS this year at home (including playoffs), as well as 12-17-1 ATS when laying 10-plus points,. Make the Under an 8* play. |
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05-07-18 | Mets v. Reds UNDER 9.5 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: The NY Mets opened the season 11-1 but the losses, both on and off the field, are piling up. The Mets finished a wretched homestand with Sunday's 3-2 loss to the Rockies. New York opened last week by getting swept by the Braves and then got swept by the Rockies. After an 0-6 homestand, the Mets head out on the road at 17-15 to begin a six-game road trip beginning with the first of three against the Cincinnati Reds on Monday night. The Mets were outscored 34-11 during a disastrous 0-6 homestand and have now dropped 14 of their last 20 after a blistering 11-1 start to the season. More bad news is that Yoenis Cespedes left Sunday's 3-2 loss to Colorado due to soreness in his right quadriceps and told reporters he was unsure of his availability for the series opener in Cincinnati. Also, Jacob deGrom, who was expected to start Monday for New York, was placed on the 10-day disabled list to allowed more time to rest his hyperextended elbow. The good news for the Mets is that their opponent the next three games is the sad-sack Cincinnati Reds, who are tied with Baltimore for the worst record in the majors at 8-26. The pitching matchup: P.J. Conlon (NR) will make his major league debut for the Mets and go up against Homer Bailey (0-4, 4.81 ERA). Conlon was recalled from Triple-A Las Vegas to make his major league debut and he'll also go into the history books, becoming the first Irish-born player to reach the bigs since 1945. With deGrom expected to start next Sunday at Philadelphia, it figures to be a one-game audition for Conlon, who is 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA in five starts this season at Las Vegas. He has allowed only one HR but opponents are batting .310 against him. Bailey owns two career no-hitters but is 66-67 in his career with a 4.43 ERA. He endured some hard-luck losses at the outset of the season after registering three quality starts in his first four outings but he has regressed over the past two weeks. After a pair of no-decisions, he was tagged for five runs on six hits over five innings in a loss to Milwaukee on Tuesday. Bailey, who has surrendered six HRs over his last three starts. Bailey is 0-4 and the Reds 0-7 in all of his 2018 starts minus-$700 vs. moneyline mark. Bailey is 1-4 with a 6.49 ERA lifetime versus New York. The pick: At first blush, with these two starters, one could say "over" fairly easily. However, the Mets come off an 0-6 homestand being held to two runs or fewer five times, including three shutouts. As for the Reds, they average 3.91 RPG (24th) plus rank 25th in OPS (.684) and 28th in HRs (27). Make the Under a 10* play. |
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05-04-18 | Warriors v. Pelicans UNDER 232 | Top | 100-119 | Win | 100 | 27 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: Arguably, no team was more impressive in the first round than the New Orleans Pelicans. They swept the 3rd-seeded Trail Blazers 4-0, going 4-0 ATS as well. Anthony Davis averaged 33 points on 57.6 percent shooting and 11.8 rebounds in the four-game sweep, while guards Jrue Holiday and Rajon Rondo plus power forward Nikola Mirotic were keys to an offense that clicked on all cylinders. After a 97-95 win in Game 1, the Pelicans averaged 120.3 PPG in taking the final three games against Portland. Holiday averaged 27.8-4.0-6.5, Rondo 11.2-7.5-13.2 and Mirotic 18.2 & 9.5 for the series. Golden State ran out to a 3-0 lead against the Leonard-less Spurs (also 3-o ATS) in the first round, before losing Game 4 and then taking Game 5 to close out the series in a non-cover. The Warriors opened this series with 123-101 win and then with Steph Curry back for Game 2, won a more competitive contest, 121-116. Curry had injured his left knee on March 23 but returned to action on Tuesday when he scored 28 points off the bench. However, he will be back in the starting lineup when the Warriors visit the New Orleans Pelicans in Friday's Game 3. The Pelicans are well aware they have their backs against the wall but are encouraged by the fact their Game 2 showing was much better than the Game 1 loss. "We played well the whole game but I think we got our rhythm back," guard Jrue Holiday told reporters. "We got our groove back. Maybe just a couple things. Golden State: Head coach Steve Kerr told reporters Curry will start in Game 3 and also indicated he will play more than the 27 minutes he received in Game 2. Curry didn't appear to be rusty as he drained five three-pointers and collected seven rebounds in a strong effort that helped the Warriors take a 2-0 series lead Power forward Draymond Green fell one rebound short of his second straight triple-double and is averaging 18 points, 12 rebounds and 11.5 assists in the series, as well as 13.3-11.4-9.0 in the postseason. As expected with Curry out, K.D (28.0-8.9-5.0) and Thompson (21.4 PPG on 43.1% shooting from the three-point line) have risen to the occasion. New Orleans: Anthony Davis is averaging 23 points (10 less than against Portland) and 12.5 rebounds through the first two games but New Orleans may need an explosion from him in Game 3, similar to the 47-point effort he posted in the final game of the first-round series against the Trail Blazers. Holiday was solid with 24 points, eight rebounds and eight assists in Game 2 after struggling to 11 points on 4-of-14 shooting in the opener. Point guard Rajon Rondo continued his strong postseason showing with 22 points and 12 assists in Game 2 and he is averaging 12.7 points and 12.7 assists in six playoff games. The pick: These teams met in the 2015 postseason (AD's only other playoff experience), with the Warriors sweeping the Pelicans but going just 1-3 ATS. Now it's six consecutive playoff wins for the Warriors over the Pelicans but still, only a 2-4 ATS mark. I expect the Pelicans to come up big in this "must-win" situation but I'm not sold on the idea that New Orleans is capable of winning. The total remains VERY high and I think the Pelicans realize that trying to beat Golden State at its own game is fruitless. I'm making the Under a 10* play. |
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