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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-09-23 | Devils v. Capitals OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
New Jersey has no trouble scoring goals but their defense has been shaky lately and in spite of a 7-3 record they are still giving up too many goals. New Jersey has seen 7 straight games go over. Their main man in net, Vanacek, has struggled, with just an .821 save % in his last 5 starts. The Devils are one of the very best road teams, facing a Capitals team that is only barely over .500 at home. The Capitals haven't won many home games lately and are just 1-5 vs good teams. Kuemper has played well behind a very depleted Caps' defensive corps, but has been facing a ton of shots in recent action. As far as the Capitals' scoring goes, any time you have Ovechkin, you have potential for offense. I expect another high scoring game on Thursday. Take the Devils and Capitals to go over the total. |
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03-08-23 | Cavs v. Heat UNDER 214.5 | Top | 104-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
Cleveland needed overtime to escape with a win over Boston on Monday. Normally, beating the Celtics would be cause for celebration. But because Boston chose to rest so many players for that game, the Cavs were left feeling more relieved than anything. Since that game went to OT, the 118-114 final score is a bit misleading. The game was tied 109-109 at the end of regulation.
These are the two top scoring defenses in the NBA. Cleveland allows 106.6 points/game while Miami allows 109.1. So I anticipate a low-scoring contest tonight. Miami got 59 points from its bench in a wild 130-128 win over Atlanta two nights ago. That’s certainly not happening again. 10* |
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03-07-23 | Georgia Tech v. Florida State UNDER 146.5 | Top | 61-60 | Win | 100 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
The ACC was not particularly strong this season, so you can imagine the quality of teams we’re getting in the first round of the conference tournament. Georgia Tech finished 14-17 SU but the Yellow Jackets have covered the spread in eight straight games. Florida State is 9-22 SU and was pretty woeful down the stretch. The Seminoles are 2-9 SU and ATS L11 games. While I might lean to Ga Tech here, the Under is the better play. The Yellow Jackets’ last five DI games have all gone Over, thanks to them shooting far better than normal. They’ve averaged 79.8 points on 47.5% shooting. For the season, this team shoots below 40% away from home while averaging 65.9 points/game. FSU is no offensive juggernaut either. Expect them to struggle mightily at the offensive end as GT allows opponents to make just 29.9% of 3PA. The Under is 39-19-1 in the Seminoles’ previous 59 neutral site games. This number is far too high. 10* |
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03-04-23 | Rockets v. Spurs OVER 230.5 | Top | 122-110 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
These are the two worst teams in the NBA. Houston is 13-49 and has lost 11 straight games. San Antonio actually has a worse point differential, but has won two straight (after losing 14 in a row) and is now 16-47 on the year.
I expect no defense to be played in this game. The Spurs are the worst defensive team in the league in terms of points allowed, giving up 122.0 per game. The Rockets aren’t far behind at 118.5 points/game allowed.
The Over has hit in five of the last six meetings between these two teams.
The Over is also 16-5 the Spurs’ last 21 times off an ATS win. (They not only won, but obviously covered their last game as a six-point home dog against Indiana). This is just the third time all season that the Spurs have gone Under in three straight games. They’ve never gone Under in four straight. 10* |
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03-03-23 | Magic v. Hornets OVER 227 | Top | 117-106 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
Charlotte comes into Friday night’s home game vs. Orlando having gone Under in five straight. While much of the focus right now is on how the Hornets’ offense will perform without Lonzo Ball (out for the season), looking at recent results it’s actually been the Hornets’ defense that’s primarily responsible for the string of Unders.
Over those last five games, the Hornets have allowed an average of just 107.4 points/game. This is well below their season average of 118.2 points/game allowed. Needless to say, I believe defensive regression is on the horizon for Charlotte.
At the offensive end, where they put up just 91 points in a loss to Phoenix Wednesday, the Hornets get a favorable matchup here facing an Orlando team that has allowed 121 or more points in each of its last three losses. Wednesday saw the Magic give up 139 to Milwaukee.
Charlotte may not be Milwaukee, but they did shoot well (54.3%) the last time they faced Orlando. That game ended up as a 119-113 final, won by the Magic, who were two-point underdogs. No matter who comes out ahead this time, I expect this game to make it Over the total. Charlotte is 4-0 to the Over the last four times they’ve been off a double digit loss at home. This O/U is much lower than where the number closed (236.5) for last month’s meeting. 10* |
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03-02-23 | Pacers v. Spurs OVER 238 | Top | 99-110 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
In what was the final game of their annual “Rodeo Road Trip,” the Spurs ended a 16-game losing streak on Tuesday by beating the shorthanded Jazz 102-94 as 9.5-point underdogs. Not only was it San Antonio’s first road win since December, it also marked the first time this season that they won a game in which they were trailing entering the fourth quarter!
The rare SU victory was largely a byproduct of the Jazz not just being shorthanded, but also shooting a season-low 35.3% from the floor. I am not expecting the Spurs to repeat that kind of effort on the defensive end tonight as they are dead last in the league in defensive efficiency.
The Jazz made just five field goals the entire fourth quarter against a team that allows 122.4 points/game for the season.
Indiana has covered four straight with the only SU loss coming in OT against Boston (142-138). But they too carry a bottom five defensive rating. So I’m expecting a real high-scoring affair tonight in the Alamo. In the first home game back after such a long trip, I can’t imagine San Antonio will play anything close to “good defense.” When these teams met back in the second game of the season, the final score was 137-134 and there was no overtime! Indiana is coming off a 124-122 win against Dallas. Something else to consider: both of these teams are top four in the league in pace. So there’s going to be plenty of possessions, not much defense and it’s not like this O/U is uncharacteristic for either team. 10* |
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02-28-23 | Islanders v. Wild UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 20 h 22 m | Show |
The 25th and 26th ranked offense meet up when the Wild host the Islanders on Tuesday. The two teams sport top ten defenses and PKs, so goals may be scarce. It has been three straight unders for the Islanders who are missing their main scorer in Barzal. Minnesota has gone under the total in eight of nine games The Wild are just a very defense-driven club. Minnesota's Gustavsson held the Leafs to two goals in his last appearance, and has held the opposition to two or less goals in six of seven games. The Isles net-minder Sorokin has allowed just 2.4 goals a game this year, and has a .937 save % in his last five games. Look for the Isles and Wild to do what they do best and keep the puck out of the net on Tuesday. I'm wagering on another Under. |
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02-27-23 | Golden Knights v. Avalanche UNDER 6 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
The Avs and Knights both have top ten defenses and middling offenses this year. Vegas plays a tight-checking game on the road with great success. They are 17-5 away, and nine of their last ten road games have gone under the total. Meantime the Avs have limited the opposition to under 2 goals in 4 of 5 games. Georgiev has a save % of .960+ in his last two starts. Hill hasn't played in some days, but he has been very good this season. The two teams don't usually produce much offense when they meet. If I had to pick a final score based on their history, I'd jump on 3-2. With a total of six available, I am wagering on the the Avalanche and Golden Knights to go under the total. |
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02-27-23 | Magic v. Pelicans OVER 226 | Top | 101-93 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
It’s not been a good start to the second half of the NBA regular season from the New Orleans Pelicans, who have dropped two games, 115-110 at Toronto and then 128-106 at New York.
But the Pelicans should at least be thrilled tonight to be back at home, where they have not played in 17 days. Their next three games are also all out on the road.
It was a dismal shooting performance against the Knicks, especially from three (2 of 19). Speaking of dismal shooting performances, the Orlando Magic shot just 38.9% from the field and 20.7% on threes in their loss Saturday to the Indiana Pacers (121-108).
I anticipate we’re going to see better shooting from both teams here on Monday, particularly from three. New Orleans has scored less than its season average of 114.7 points/game in five straight, so they are definitely due some positive regression. I can’t see a sixth straight game with 110 points or fewer. The Pelicans are shooting 37.3% from three at home this season. Orlando is 16-6 to the Over in non-conference games this year. Those games have averaged 231.3 points. The Magic are also due some positive regression when it comes to their shooting as they’ve been below their season average in points four of the last five games. Take the Over here. |
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02-24-23 | Heat v. Bucks UNDER 219 | Top | 99-128 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
Miami won the Eastern Conference in 2020 while Milwaukee did it in 2021. This year, both teams enter the second half staring up at last season’s EC Champs, Boston. But, heading into the All-Star Break, nobody was hotter than Milwaukee, who has won 12 straight games to move within a game of the top spot in the Conference. Miami is 7th, 10.5 games back of top.
I expect this to be a lot lower-scoring than when these teams played three weeks ago. The final score was Bucks 123 Heat 115.
There could be some rust coming out of the ASB for both teams. Miami is averaging only 108.3 points/game this season.
Both teams are top four in the league in defensive efficiency (Milwaukee 3rd, Miami 4th). But the real key is Giannis being doubtful. Without him, the Bucks’ offensive efficiency drops way off. Wes Matthews and Pat Connaughton are also both out. Miami also likes to play slow. They are 28th in pace. 10* |
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02-24-23 | Wild v. Maple Leafs UNDER 6 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 106 | 19 h 25 m | Show |
The 6-4 Leafs are tough to beat at home with a superlative 22-6 record. They'll be home to the Wild who won against the Blue Jackets last night. It is the third game in four nights for the Wild. They've won four straight but do struggle when away, just 1-4 in recent road-work. The Wild have allowed just 5 goals in that winning streak, but have scored just 10. That is the story of the Wild this season; limited scoring and limited goals allowed. Gustavvson is in net for the Wild tomorrow. He has been super-sharp lately, with a .944 save % since the All-star break. The Leafs are just as good on defense, but with a much more potent offense. The Under has been the name of the game when these two teams meet in Toronto and when Minnesota is playing on short rest. Gustavvson has had such a hot hand that I think this game will go true to form. Take the Wild and Leafs to go under on Friday. |
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02-17-23 | Abilene Christian v. Grand Canyon UNDER 143.5 | Top | 84-94 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
Because both teams have been going Over the total regularly of late, I feel we’re getting a great number here as Abilene Christian takes on Grand Canyon in late night WAC action Friday. Now is the time to play these teams to go Under the total. Abilene Christian has gone Over in six straight games. But four of those totals were set at less than 140. Grand Canyon has gone Over in 11 of its last 12 games, the one exception being last Saturday’s loss out in Seattle. Again though, most of their totals have been set well below this number. In fact, only 2 of the 12 games had a total above 140.0 As we saw in their last game, Abilene Christian can struggle defensively. But - because Thursday’s scheduled game vs. New Mexico State was a forfeit, the Wildcats have had plenty of time to prepare for tonight’s matchup and “get right” defensively. After losing at Seattle last Saturday, Grand Canyon lost again Wednesday as a 12-point home favorite. I expect them to play more cautiously tonight and by that, I mean “slower.” The Antelopes are already outside the Top 300 in adjusted tempo. 10* |
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02-17-23 | Rangers v. Oilers OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 22 h 40 m | Show |
The Rangers have won six straight games, scoring 31 goals while allowing 17. They continue to play on the road, where they are now 16-5, facing the Oilers on Friday night. The Oilers who were pressing for 1st in their division, are just 2-3 since the All-star break. Their league's best offense and Power Play have put up some high numbers, but they have also given up 14 goals in 3 games. With their recent offensive surge, the Rangers have moved into the top ten teams on offense, but the power surge appears to have come at the expense of more goals allowed than normal. The free-er style sure hasn't affected their winning percentage. Edmonton is worse than average on defense and a bottom feeder (27th ranked)on the penalty kill. Held to just 2 goals in their last game, look for the Oilers to bounce back on offense. Shesterkin has under-performed since the All-star break, with an .880 save % in his last three games. Oilers' net minder Skinner allowed 6 goals in his last time. |
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02-16-23 | Wisc-Milwaukee v. Youngstown State UNDER 156.5 | Top | 58-87 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
This is a high stakes game out in the Horizon League with the two top teams in that conference facing off here. Milwaukee and Youngstown State each come in sporting 12-4 records in conference play. So the winner here will have first place to themselves.
Milwaukee won the first meeting 88-75. They were four-point home underdogs and shot 54% from the field. YSU certainly didn’t help themselves by going 4 of 21 from three-point range.
Both teams can certainly score, but considering the stakes, this is a pretty high total. I expect we’ll see some defense tonight.
I don’t think that this will be a blowout nor do I see both teams scoring 80 points, which is what you’d basically need for this Over to hit. Youngstown State is off an 81-78 loss at Cleveland State (peeking ahead?). They are 5-0 to the Under the L5 times they’ve been off a game where they did not cover the spread. 10* |
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02-15-23 | Rangers v. Canucks OVER 6.5 | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 22 h 16 m | Show |
The Rangers were impressive last time out, winning convincingly against Carolina. That is five straight victories now, with 4 of 5 going over and the Rangers scoring at least four times in each. The Canucks are just 1-4 since the break and have allowed a monstrous 25 goals in those five games. They managed just a trio of goals in the two games against Detroit, while allowing eleven. Since the loss of Demko, Vancouver's goal tending has been exceptionally poor, even allowing for a 31st ranked defense and the league's worst PK in front of them. I do expect something of a bounce back from the Canucks. They'll face Shesterkin in net, but he has been just average since the break. It is the offense, with the addition of Tarasenko, that has been overachieving lately. |
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02-15-23 | Spurs v. Hornets OVER 239.5 | Top | 110-120 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
These have been two of the coldest teams in the entire of NBA of late. San Antonio has lost 13 in a row and just covered for the first time since January 20th (as a 16-point underdog in Cleveland). Charlotte just won for the first time in February. Prior to that, the Hornets had lost seven in a row.
I expect very little defense to be played Wednesday in this battle of also-rans.
The Spurs have the worst defensive rating in the league.They are giving up an average of 125 points/game on the road while letting the opposition shoot 52 percent from the field.
Charlotte has given up 117 or more points in six straight games. Their last game, which again was a win, ended up 144-138. They shot 63% overall from the field and made 54% from three. Even if the Hornets can’t come close to matching those percentages tonight, they will put a bunch of points on the board. The Over is 5-0 this season when they face a team from the Southwest Division. 10* |
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02-13-23 | Wizards v. Warriors UNDER 233.5 | Top | 126-135 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
The Wizards have won 8 of their last 11 games and tonight visit the wounded Warriors. No Steph Curry has resulted in the home team losing its last two games. Thus, I could certainly understand the urge to take the points in this Monday night NBA matchup. But I think the Under is the better call. This isn’t the same Warriors team without Curry. They were just 12 of 44 from deep in a 109-103 loss to the Lakers Saturday night. That was here at home. Last month saw these teams combine for 245 points, but 41 of those came from Curry. With the former MVP on the sidelines, the total for this game should be way lower. It was 235 with Curry in the lineup last month. His absence is certainly felt in the spread, but there’s definite value playing the Under. 10* |
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02-12-23 | Chiefs v. Eagles UNDER 51 | Top | 38-35 | Loss | -110 | 115 h 56 m | Show |
If solid defense wins big games, then KC's best passing offense matches up poorly as it faces the Eagles and their legitimate league's best pass defense in this year's premier situation. Yes, we are talking about Mahomes, but there are enough question marks around the Chiefs' WRs playing at less than full strength as well as Mahomes' ankle issues to suggest that this won't be a Chief's pass attack in top shape. The Eagles absolutely will give Mahomes a much tougher time as far as passer pressure goes. The Eagles also absolutely will run the ball as they did against SF. They ran on 53% of plays and had a huge 62% in time of possession last in their game (58% on average L3). More of a run game from the Chiefs wouldn't surprise me this week. I expect a slower than anticipated game on Sunday with both teams struggling to move the ball as freely than in previous games. I don't expect any more movement on the total, so I am jumping in now and "absolutely" wagering on Super Sunday's total to go under. |
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02-12-23 | Oilers v. Canadiens OVER 6.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
The Habs are home to the Oilers in an early Sunday game. Both teams played and won on Saturday, the Canadiens in OT and the Oilers easily. That was Montreal's first win in 5 games. The Habs are 3 games under .500 at home. The Oilers, on the other hand, are 8-2 L10, and are a better team on the road this season. Tops in offense and Power Play this season, the Oilers are a threat for a high total in every game. Facing the Canadiens' 28th ranked goals-against and 30th PK, a bevy of Oilers' goals is even more likely. Skinner likely starts for the Oilers. He has impressed this year, but his recent results have been mixed. The Oilers are not always the most dependable team on defense. Allen will start in net for the Canadiens and has been outright leaky of late. Edmonton is 4-1 against Montreal in recent meetings and all of those games have gone over the total I don't believe that Sunday's game will be any different. Wager on the Canadiens and Oilers to go Over. |
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02-11-23 | Heat v. Magic OVER 215 | Top | 107-103 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
I like the Over here. Last night’s Miami result is giving us some good value. The Heat won Friday, but it was not pretty as they beat the Rockets 97-95 as 12-point favorites. That obviously went way Under. (Total closed 220.5). There should be more offensive success in this game against an Orlando team that gives up nearly 115 points/game. The Magic have played two straight low scoring games and have had three in a row go Under overall. But they are 6-1 Over on Saturdays this season. The Magic’s last game, a 115-104 win over Denver, was 65-55 at halftime. 10* |
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02-10-23 | Spurs v. Pistons OVER 235 | Top | 131-138 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
This is an UGLY matchup with the worst team in the NBA (Spurs) taking on a Pistons team that is in the bottom four. While we’ve seen both teams struggle to score recently, it’s not like either is known for playing much defense. So let’s go Over the total here. Detroit is 29th (next to last) in the league in defensive efficiency. Would you like to guess who is last? That would be San Antonio. Neither of these teams play slow. In fact, both rank in the top 10 in pace. Combine that with the two worst defensive teams in terms of points allowed per possession and we’ve got ourselves a recipe for an Over. Oddsmakers are unfazed by the fact neither team scored 100 points in their last game. The Pistons had a horrific shooting night in Cleveland, including 8 of 32 from three. Three-point variance is something we can count on here, especially considering SA is allowing teams to hit over 40% from behind the arc. The Pistons are also “due” for an Over after six straight Unders. The Spurs have allowed 127 or more points in 10 of their last 14 games. They allowed “only” 112 at Toronto Wednesday. That’s notable because you’d have to go back to Jan 6th to find the last time the Spurs went back to back games without allowing 120 or more points. 10* |
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02-10-23 | Seattle Kraken v. Rangers OVER 6 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
The Rangers are usually a defense-driven team and the Kraken have been underachieving on offense with just a single goal scored in the two games since the break. Sounds like an under? But, wait! The addition of Tarasenko to the Rangers' offense is a very fine and inspiring plus. The Kraken usually have a potent offense; it is defense and goal-tending that can be an issue. NY has been surprisingly free-wheeling since the break, scoring nine goals while allowing seven. The Kraken are due to score more than a goal tonight. Seattle will also play their third game in four nights. Usually it is the defense that struggles in such a situation. Take the over in this match-up. |
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02-09-23 | Nuggets v. Magic OVER 231.5 | Top | 104-115 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
The Nuggets just put up 146 in their last game, a blowout win over Minnesota. Over their last six games, there’s been only one time where Denver and the opposition failed to combine for 235 or more points. That was a 128-98 loss at Minnesota where Jokic didn’t play.
Orlando’s last game was low scoring as they lost 102-98 to the Knicks. But the Magic are 16-5 to the Over this season when facing a team from the Western Conference.
Three of the last four games have seen the Magic shoot worse than their season average from three. Denver lets teams hit 38.1% from behind the arc on the road. So Orlando should find success from downtown in this matchup.
In fact, the Nuggets allow teams to shoot better than 50% overall when they are the road team. The Over is 8-3 L11 Magic home games as well as 5-0-1 in Denver’s last six overall. 10* |
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02-08-23 | Warriors v. Blazers UNDER 235.5 | Top | 122-125 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
Golden State just put up 141 in a win over Oklahoma City Monday night, but remember there’s no Steph Curry (out through the All-Star Break) and I just don’t see a repeat of that offensive effort from the Warriors tonight.
Against the Thunder, Golden State shot 57.7% overall and 52% from three. Klay Thompson made 12 threes himself. I’m on the record as saying none of that will be repeated here.
How much of a scoring decrease we see here from the Warriors remains to be seen. But considering this team is just 7-20 on the road, averaging 116.6 points/game, it should be rather substantial.
Portland saw a streak of four straight games with 120 or more points broken on Monday. They finished with just 108 in a blowout loss at the hands of Milwaukee. None of the previous five meetings between these teams would have gone Over this total. The Blazers are 29-11 Under following a game where they allowed 125 or more points. 10* |
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02-07-23 | Nevada v. New Mexico UNDER 148.5 | Top | 77-76 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
We’ve got some late night action in the Mountain West with New Mexico hosting Nevada. This is expected to be a high-scoring affair, but I think oddsmakers set the total too high.
Now the last time these teams met, it was a 97-94 final. That game went to double overtime. It was tied 78-78 at the end of regulation. We need a lower-scoring 40 minutes tonight, obviously, and I think we’ll get it.
New Mexico was actually the last unbeaten team in the country. But they’ve lost four of nine since that 14-0 start and have scored below their season average in all nine of those contests.
Nevada has seen four of its last five games ended with 141 or less total points scored. I know it’s scary to go with the Under when both teams have been regularly going Over of late. But this O/U line looks to be inflated. New Mexico holds teams to 30.3% from three-point range and Nevada only averages 68.2 points/game on the road. 10* |
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02-06-23 | Kings v. Rockets OVER 234.5 | Top | 140-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
Sacramento suffered an embarrassing defeat on Sunday, going down 136-104 at the hands of New Orleans. That was a Pelicans team playing without Brandon Ingram, and in the second night of a back to back.
So it’s tempting to play the Kings here as they face the lowly Rockets. But there’s no indication (yet) that De’Aaron Fox will return. Nevertheless, I do expect there to be no shortage of scoring in this game.
Jalen Green is back for Houston and their defense only gets worse with him on the floor. In Saturday’s loss at Oklahoma City, the Rockets gave up 153 points and 1.577 points per possession in non-garbage time. That’s atrocious.
Considering the Kings just allowed 136 to an undermanned Pelicans squad, defense seems like will be “optional” in this Monday night NBA tilt. In fact, the last time these teams met, they combined for 253 points. That was on January 13th, so not long ago. Two days before that, they combined for 250. This is an easy call on the Over. 10* |
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02-04-23 | Heat v. Bucks OVER 222.5 | Top | 115-123 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
Milwaukee scored only 106 in its last game, which is far from the norm for them. We're talking about a team that had previously scored 124 or more in six of eight games. The Bucks' offensive efficiency, over the last two weeks, is where you'd expect it to be. The Over is 14-8 this season in Bucks' games where the total is 220 or higher. I anticipate them scoring a ton tonight. Now Miami only scored 104 points in its last game. They've topped 110 just once in the last seven games, however, I think we can expect more than normal tonight given the Bucks' involvement. Two head to head meetings in January failed to produce more than 210 points. Neither Giannis Antekounmpo nor Khris Middleton played in those games though. Take the Over. 10* |
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02-02-23 | Hornets v. Bulls OVER 236.5 | Top | 98-114 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
The Bulls and Hornets have already played twice this season. Both games went Under the total. I expect this one to be higher scoring though (as, obviously, so do the oddsmakers).
While five of the last six Bulls games have gone Under the total and four of the last five Hornets games have stayed Under as well, we are looking at a pair of teams more than capable of scoring - or allowing - a lot of points on any given night.
Charlotte takes a lot of threes and has scored 122 and 115 points its last two games. I’m confident they can score in that range again tonight.
The issue for the Hornets is they allow 120.5 points/game on the road. They just gave up 124 at Milwaukee. Chicago was just 4 of 25 from three the last time they played Charlotte. But that was on the road and I expect much better shooting tonight. Take the Over. |
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02-01-23 | New Mexico v. Utah State UNDER 156.5 | Top | 73-84 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
The expectation for this game is that New Mexico and Utah State are going to put up a lot of points. I understand that. New Mexico is averaging 82.4 points/game this season while Utah State puts up 79.9.
But I like the Under here. The number is just too high.
Looking through the results, New Mexico has had just one game all season close with a total higher than 156 points. That was January 9th vs. Oral Roberts and it stayed Under.
Similarly, Oral Roberts is the only Utah State opponent this season where the total was this high. Utah State is #1 in the country in three-point percentage, but can they really continue hitting above 40%? I don’t think so. Meanwhile, with New Mexico, only nine teams in the country take a fewer percentage of total field goal attempts from beyond the arc. 10* |
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01-31-23 | Clippers v. Bulls UNDER 227.5 | Top | 108-103 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
The Clippers sat both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George Sunday in Cleveland. Therefore, their five-game win streak went “bye bye” in a (somewhat) predictable 122-99 loss.
It looks like both Leonard and George will play tonight, so most bettors are probably going to want to lay the short number. But I’m wary of a Bulls team that’s won five of its last six at home.
But I don’t want to back the Bulls getting so few points. Therefore, we turn to the total, which is too high in my opinion. That’s probably because the last four Clippers’ games all went Over the total. But they remain bottom eight in the league in pace and I suspect we’ll see better defense tonight than what we saw on Sunday.
Chicago put up 128 in a win on Saturday where they shot almost 60% from the floor. No way they come close to shooting it that well again. The Clippers are also due for some shooting regression. The Under is 4-1 in the Bulls’ last five games as well as 5-0 the last five times they’ve been off an ATS win (as they are here). 10* |
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01-30-23 | Magic v. 76ers UNDER 232.5 | Top | 119-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
It looks like a tall order here for Orlando as they will be facing a Philadelphia team that has won 20 of its last 24 games and seven straight. Over the last three seasons, the Magic are 0-9 vs. the 76ers.
This is the third meeting of the season between the two teams. The previous two were in Orlando with Philly winning by scores of 133-103 and 107-99.
I think this will be more like the first one, which was low-scoring. Yes, the NBA’s leading scorer Joel Embiid is coming off a 47-point game for the Sixers. But after their last three games all went Over, I think this Sixers’ offense is set to cool down some.
Orlando fell over the weekend to Chicago, 128-109 as 2.5-point home favorites. They are 11-3 Under this season after suffering a double digit loss. Philadelphia is fourth in the NBA in points allowed and holds opponents to 47.4% shooting. I’m not at all concerned about Orlando putting up a lot of points tonight. Above all else though, we’re talking two teams that have both shot & allowed over 50% their last five games. That’s not going to continue. 10* |
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01-29-23 | Pelicans v. Bucks OVER 233.5 | Top | 110-135 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
New Orleans is in a free fall, having lost seven straight while going 1-5-1 ATS. They just lost three in a row at home, so maybe hitting the road will bring a change in fortune?
Except for the fact the Pelicans are facing Milwaukee tonight. The Bucks have won three straight and five of six.
In four of those five wins, the Bucks have scored more than 130 points. They dropped 141 at Indiana Friday night. They scored 150 in Detroit earlier in the week.
Of course, the Bucks also gave up 130+ in those two games. I see no reason why tonight’s contest won’t also be high scoring and go Over the total. The Over is 16-8 in Pelicans’ road games this season. It’s the same record when the Bucks are at home. Even high totals don’t matter when Milwaukee is involved. The Over is 8-2 when the O/U line is 230+ for them. 10* |
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01-28-23 | Auburn v. West Virginia UNDER 142.5 | Top | 77-80 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 23 m | Show |
Auburn just had a five-game win streak snapped on Wednesday, losing to Texas A&M 79-63 as a 3.5 point home favorite. Now they hit the road and head into unfamiliar territory as part of this SEC vs. Big 12 Challenge.
While West Virginia is having a “down” year, Morgantown is still not an easy place to win at, if you are the road team. WVU also carries a lot of respect here. This will be the third straight home game where they go off as the favorite against a Top 25 opponent. They beat TCU here, but lost to Texas.
Auburn isn’t as good as either TCU or Texas, nor is the SEC as good as the Big 12.
Furthermore, WVU just clobbered Texas Tech on the road earlier this week, winning 76-61 as a 3.5 point dog. I’ll take that as a sign Bob Huggins' team is starting to “figure things out.” Yet, I don’t want to lay points against an Auburn team coming off a bad loss. So let’s play the Under instead. It’s cashed in three straight WVU games and Auburn is shooting under 30% for the year from three. But the Tigers can defend. They are holding teams below 39% overall from the field. 8* |
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01-27-23 | Raptors v. Warriors UNDER 235 | Top | 117-129 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
The Raptors have covered the spread in each of their last three games and just started what will eventually be a seven-game road tip by beating Sacramento 113-95 as a three-point underdog. That was after beating the Knicks at home, 125-116, on Sunday.
Golden State has alternated wins and losses over its last seven contests and is coming off a wild last-second win over Memphis. But as 122-120 winners of that game, the Warriors did not cover as 3.5-point favorites.
We know how bad Golden State has been on the road this year, but at home they are 18-6 and putting up 119.2 points/game. That being said, the O/U line for tonight looks high to me. The market seems to agree.
Despite those numbers mentioned above, the Under is 10-3-1 in the Warriors’ last 14 home games. The total for tonight is higher than the average number of points scored in games here this season. I also expect Toronto to not shoot as well as they have been recently. The L5 games have seen the Raptors make 49% of their FG attempts. For the season, this is a team shooting only 45% from the floor. Take the Under. 10* |
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01-26-23 | Arizona State v. Washington UNDER 145.5 | Top | 66-69 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
A late night affair in the Pac 12 sees two teams on four-game Over streaks facing off as Washington hosts Arizona State.
Arizona State got off to a great start to the year, but no one really believed in them and that lack of belief is starting to bear out. The Sun Devils have lost two in a row, albeit to UCLA and USC.
Meanwhile, after losing five in a row, Washington was able to win three straight, all against bottom teams in the Pac 12. But then the Huskies lost badly on Saturday, 86-61 at Utah.
ASU may not be an elite team overall, but they are top 50 in the country in defensive efficiency. I think this number is too high due to Washington getting blitzed in its last game, something that won’t happen here at home. Play the Under. 8* |
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01-26-23 | Bulls v. Hornets OVER 233.5 | Top | 96-111 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
Over the course of this entire season, the Bulls have generally been a “streaky” team. Rarely, do they not win or lose multiple games in a row. So, coming off a 116-110 loss to Indiana (where they blew a 21-point lead), now is probably not the time to back this team.
But the Bulls are facing Charlotte tonight. The Hornets certainly aren’t any good; they own the league’s third worst win percentage and are 4-12 straight up/4-11-1 against the spread since Christmas. I certainly don’t want to back them here either.
But I do want to play the Over. Charlotte has allowed a minimum of 116 points over each of its last nine games. They just gave up 128 to Phoenix on Tuesday. The Suns were able to shoot 55% from three in that game.
There are only two teams in the league - Detroit and San Antonio - that are allowing more points per game than the Hornets. While Chicago has gone Under in three straight, their last five games have still averaged more than 230 points. I think we get Over this number tonight as the Over has hit the last five times the Hornets have been off a double digit loss, not to mention 8 of the last 10 times they’ve hosted the Bulls. 10* |
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01-25-23 | Utah State v. San Diego State UNDER 144 | Top | 75-85 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 21 m | Show |
I think we’re in store for a pretty low-scoring affair tonight as two of the best Mountain West teams hook it up. San Diego State is hosting Utah State. SDSU has won eight of nine to surge into first place. They are deserved favorites here, but are also just 1-7 ATS at home this season.
Utah State has won six of eight, but has failed to cover three straight. On paper, the Aggies look to have the offensive edge in this matchup, but SDSU is holding teams to 60.9 points/game when here at home.
This is a high total for a game involving San Diego State. Only twice this season have they seen a higher O/U line. Both of those games stayed Under.
Even for Utah State, the number looks high. Only two of their last six games have seen a higher O/U line and one of those stayed Under. A recent rash of Overs from both sides has clearly inflated this number. No San Diego State home game has had a total close in the 140 to 144.5 range while the same is true for Utah State road games. Take the Under. 10* |
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01-25-23 | Grizzlies v. Warriors OVER 239 | Top | 120-122 | Win | 100 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
Golden State may be the defending NBA Champions, but right now they are looking up at Memphis in the standings. In fact, the Warriors are only 10th in the West entering Wednesday and a game below .500. The Grizzlies are 31-16 and in second place.
But all of a sudden the Grizz have dropped three straight after previously winning 11 in a row. Two of the losses were close, but then Monday saw them get blown out 133-100 in Sacramento. Ja Morant didn’t play in that game, however.
The Grizzlies defense was atrocious in that game as they let the Kings hit 12 of 13 three-point attempts in the first quarter! Morant being back here won’t solve that issue, especially against a team like the Warriors.
Meanwhile, there hasn’t been a Warriors’ game with fewer than 234 points scored since January 7th. So expect plenty of points tonight on ESPN. The Over has hit the last four times Golden State has been off a loss, which they are here. These are two of the six teams in the league currently averaging at least 117 points/game. 10* |
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01-23-23 | Hawks v. Bulls UNDER 239.5 | Top | 100-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
While I don’t think this game will be “low scoring,” the O/U line is too high for tonight’s matchup between the Bulls and Hawks. Yes, Atlanta has gone Over in four straight and shot 55.5% over its last five games. But can they continue to shoot that well? Probably not! Especially not here when playing for the third time in four nights. Only one of Chicago’s last five games would have gone Over tonight’s total. They are well rested, having last played on Thursday (in France) against the Pistons. This season, the Bulls are 2-0 to the Under when on three or more days rest. In the first game back after a long trip, there’s a good chance we see some offensive regression from the Bulls. 10* |
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01-23-23 | Islanders v. Maple Leafs UNDER 6 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
The Islanders have struggled lately, winning just once in their last nine games. They are generating very little offense and aren't as stingy as they have traditionally been. Off an overtime road loss, the Leafs are just 5-5 lately, but they are dominant at home, going 17-3 in the Gardens this season. They have won their last 4 straight games at home, allowing just 4 goals in those wins. We've had a steady diet of unders from these two teams, not unexpected from two top 10 defenses. As poor as the Isles have been, Sorokin, today's likely starter has continued to keep the score down. Samsonov has been very strong in the net for Toronto. The Leafs are very tough on defense, especially at home, and the two teams have a history of low scoring games when they meet. Look for the Under trend to continue. |
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01-22-23 | Lakers v. Blazers OVER 238.5 | Top | 121-112 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
Expect fireworks in the last NBA game on the board tonight. The Lakers last five games have seen an average of more than 240 total points scored. Portland is not far behind at 237 and that’s after a low-scoring 105-95 loss to Philadelphia on Thursday.
There are only three teams in the league that give up more points/game than the Lakers. Those are: Charlotte, Detroit and San Antonio.
Additionally, the Lakers play at the third fastest tempo in the league, which means more possessions.
After an awful shooting night against the 76ers, you should look for the Blazers to bounce back offensively. The Over is 12-3 when the Lakers face a sub-.500 team. Portland comes in at 21-24 on the year. 10* |
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01-21-23 | Gonzaga v. Pacific OVER 157.5 | Top | 99-90 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
I cashed the Under in Gonzaga’s last game, which they LOST 68-67 at home to Loyola Marymount. That winner cleared by more than 20 points as the Zags uncharacteristically shot poorly (just 28.6% from three) and saw their 75-game home win streak come to an end.
After being held to nearly 20 points below their season-long scoring average, which is still #2 in the nation, Gonzaga should come out firing Saturday night at Pacific, a WCC opponent that they’ve frequently torched in the past. In four of the previous five meetings, as well as 7 of the last 10, the Zags have topped 80 against the Tigers.
Now it takes “two to tango,” so Pacific is going to need to put up some points here as well. Certainly a lot more than the 57 they scored in a loss at San Francisco Thursday night. But that looks to be an outlier effort from the Tigers, who had scored 78 or more in each of the previous four games, all of which went Over the total. The Over is also 21-9 in the L30 Pacific home games. 10* |
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01-20-23 | Avalanche v. Canucks OVER 6.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -130 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
The last team the 2-8 Canucks beat at home was the Avalanche. Since then, the Avs have gone 4-2, and scored a ton of goals, especially in their last three games (17). They are a solid road team and face a Canucks group that is struggling on and off the ice. Considering their make-up, the Avs are surprisingly poor on offense this year, averaging just 3.1 goals a game, but they appear to be waking up lately. They do have a better power play, and are a top ten defense. The Canucks can put the puck in the net (3.4 goals/game), but their defense is a woeful 31st ranked, and they have the worst PK in the league. It is hard to tell which net-minder will start for Vancouver, but both are usually exposed by poor defensive play. The Canucks have historically played well vs the Avs and have won both games so far this season. Today's best bet is the Over, considering the Avalanches' recent scoring blitz and the Canucks' dependably poor defense and potent offense. |
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01-20-23 | Heat v. Mavs UNDER 217.5 | Top | 90-115 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
Miami has crept back up into the top six in the Eastern Conference and tonight will head to Dallas to face a team that’s top five out West. While the Heat have won 4 of 5 and 7 of their last 10, the Mavs are slipping; dropping five of six and three straight. After their latest loss, which came here at home to the Atlanta Hawks by a score of 130-122, you have to figure Dallas is going to look to “buckle down” defensively. “It’s like a shootaround,” head coach Jason Kidd said of his team’s defense (or rather lack of it) in the last game. But rather than back the home team here, I’m going with the Under. Miami is #2 in the NBA in scoring defense, giving up just 108.6 points/game. They’ve allowed fewer than 100 points in two of their last three games. In terms of pace, these are two of the slowest teams in the entire NBA. Dallas is 29th in pace while Miami is 24th. All signs point to this being a low-scoring game. 10* |
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01-19-23 | Loyola Marymount v. Gonzaga UNDER 159 | Top | 68-67 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
Gonzaga can certainly score at will as we saw on Saturday when they dropped 115 points on poor Portland and won by 40. That was the third time in the last month the Zags hit the century mark and fourth if you include a non-board game vs. Eastern Oregon. They are #1 in the country, averaging 86.9 PPG.
But, it was just last Thursday where we saw the Under hit in a game between Gonzaga and BYU. I think that tonight Loyola Marymount can keep Gonzaga’s scoring in relative check.
Now LMU scored 98 themselves in a win over San Diego last Saturday. Certainly, points are to be expected here. But this number is high. In fact it’s the largest O/U for any LMU game so far this season.
With the opponent and the Over being 6-0 in Lions’ road games, I understand there may be some trepidation in playing this Under. But be aware that not only did Gonzaga go Under vs. BYU, but also the two games before as well. None of the three saw more than 157 total pts scored. The game vs. San Diego was also LMU’s highest scoring of the season so far. There’s value here in the Under. 10* |
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01-16-23 | Celtics v. Hornets OVER 231.5 | Top | 130-118 | Win | 100 | 6 h 58 m | Show |
The Celtics and Hornets just played Friday. It was a rare loss for me, as I took the points, but Charlotte just didn’t have enough in the tank down the stretch. They did have a 16-point lead in the first half and were up at the break, only to be outscored 60-40 in the second half. This afternoon, I’ll be taking a different approach.
There were 228 total points scored in Friday’s game, which was just shy of the total (closed 232.5).
I am very confident that Boston will have no issue putting a bunch of points on the board in today’s game. Not only do they carry the #1 offensive rating in the league this season, but Charlotte has now allowed 121 or more points in three straight and six of its last eight games.
So, really, what this comes down to is: can the Hornets score enough? I think they will. They were a pretty woeful 8 of 27 from three on Friday, which is below their season percentage. Boston attempted 53 threes on its own Friday. That’s a lot, but not out of the ordinary when facing Charlotte. They launched 52 3PA back in November vs. the Hornets and poured in 140 total points. Take the Over here. 8* |
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01-15-23 | Ravens v. Bengals UNDER 40.5 | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 28 m | Show |
The Bengals and the Ravens put up 53 points last week but that included two costly picks and a "fumble-six" by the Ravens' rookie QB. Look for the Ravens to go back to their usual rush-first style and slo-ow the game down this week. Burrow has had his struggles against the Baltimore defense this year, and was held to just 200 passing yards, short receptions and a poor completion rate last week. The Ravens haven't been able to put up many points with Huntley under center, and the Bengals are tough to run against. Baltimore's tough defense, with a dry run last week, will tighten the screws on Burrow and limit points more successfully this week. Take Sunday's game to go under the total! |
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01-12-23 | Canucks v. Lightning OVER 6.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
The embattled 4-6 Canucks are 0-2 on this road trip. They can score but they can't hold a lead, allowing 12 goals and scoring 8 in their last two games. They are 30th in goals against and worst in the league on the PK. Add a sub-.500 road record and an 0-4 recent record against the Lightning, and a Canucks win seems unlikely. The Lightning lost 2 straight on the road, but bounced back with a big home win against the Blues last time out. Tampa Bay is very tough to beat at home. With a top five offense and power play, they could have a field day against either of the Canucks' inexperienced 2nd string goalies. The Canucks give out high risk chances and power play goals like Hallowe'en candy, but don't underestimate their offense. The over is 23 -14 in Canucks' games this season. Expect a high scoring game tonight and go with the over again. |
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01-11-23 | Sharks v. Kings OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 22 h 48 m | Show |
San Jose has lost it's way with just three wins in ten games. They beat the Coyotes last night, but wins on consecutive nights is unlikely, especially against a 7-3 Kings team who are very good at home. LA won in a surprisingly low scoring game the last time these two teams met, but the Kings have been hot lately, beating both the Oilers and the Knights, and scoring 6 and 5 goals respectively. The Kings' forte is offense and power play, and while their defense is below average, it is not nearly as poor as the The Sharks' who are 28th in goals allowed. LA has six players with 10 or more goals, plus decent secondary scoring. The Sharks' +/- is very shaky, neither goaltender is especially sharp, and they will play two nights in a row with travel thrown in. Look for the Kings to be a lot tougher on the Sharks than the last time these two teams met. The Sharks aren't terrible at putting the puck in the net either. With the Sharks averaging three goals a game, and the Kings on a tear, look for this game to go over the total. |
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01-10-23 | Magic v. Blazers UNDER 230.5 | Top | 109-106 | Win | 100 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
This is the second night of a back to back for Orlando. They’ll encounter a Portland team that should be pretty angry after it dropped all three games on a recently completed road trip.
The Magic just gave up 136 points to Sacramento last night, so I understand that betting the Under might seem a little bit “scary.” But the key takeaway from Monday’s loss is that the Kings made a franchise record 23 three pointers. Portland, with its average offense, won’t come close to that number.
In fact, the Blazers just put up only 106, 99 and 105 points in those three road losses. They do average a lot more than that at home (118.5 points/game), but in the first game back may struggle a bit.
Something else to consider is that Orlando only averages 106.5 points/game on the road. I just think that this number is way too high, especially when you consider that the Blazers have gone Under in seven of their last eight. 10* |
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01-09-23 | Oral Roberts v. New Mexico UNDER 161.5 | Top | 75-82 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
With the College Football National Championship front and center, there’s not much College Basketball on tonight’s docket. But this is a game worth paying attention to.
New Mexico was actually the last unbeaten team in the country, but has now dropped two in a row including an 84-77 decision here at home to UNLV Saturday night. I thought that result was undeserved and the Lobos were the better team. Nevertheless, they come into Monday looking to avoid a third consecutive defeat as favorites.
Oral Roberts has won 10 straight, but three of the last five victories have been by exactly three points.
I’m looking at the total here as we’ve got a very high number. Both teams are Top 32 in tempo and ORU is Top 20 in offensive efficiency. The last six New Mexico games have all gone Over the total. Yet so much has to “go right” to get Over a number this large. Note that NONE of those L6 NM games would have gone Over this number (though the last one would have if this line trickles down any further). Three of the last four games involving Oral Roberts saw 145 or less total points scored. I’m on the Under. |
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01-09-23 | Spurs v. Grizzlies UNDER 237 | Top | 113-121 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
The Grizzlies just keep winning as they ran their streak to six straight with last night’s 123-118 victory over Utah. That win streak will be expected to continue here as Memphis is a double digit favorite at home over San Antonio.
Should be noted that the Grizzlies did not cover the spread in last night’s game. I have no interest in laying double digits with them in the second night of a back to back. So let’s check out the total, which seems a little high given the Spurs have the third worst offensive rating in the league.
Memphis’ own offensive rating is just middle of the pack (16th).
This number is likely inflated due to the fact the Over is also on a 10-1 run in Spurs’ games. The last three Grizzlies’ games have also all gone Over. But there has yet to be a time all season where the Grizz went Over in four straight. Certainly worth paying attention to is the fact that Ja Morant was a late scratch for the Grizzlies last night due to right thigh soreness. San Antonio was without three starters in its last game. 10* |
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01-09-23 | Flyers v. Sabres OVER 6.5 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -116 | 18 h 4 m | Show |
Buffalo played a typical Sabres-style game last time out, scoring 6 times and allowing 5 goals. They are 8-2 L10 and have potted 39 goals in those wins. They host the 6-4 Flyers on Monday, who were blown out by the Leafs on Sunday. With back to back games and travel, fatigue could be a factor for Philadelphia. The Flyers are below .500 on the road and are a below average defensive team. 7 of their last 10 game have gone over the total. They will run out a back up goalie against the Sabre's #1 offense and #2 power play. The Sabres have plenty of firepower, but still struggle on defense, allowing on average 3.4 goals against. I am wagering on the over for Monday's match-up. Look for the Sabres to light it up against a road-weary Flyers team. |
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01-06-23 | Knicks v. Raptors UNDER 220 | Top | 112-108 | Push | 0 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
Back on 12/21, the Raptors handed the Knicks a 113-106 loss at Madison Square Garden. New York came into that game on an 8-game win streak, then promptly lost its next five (including the game vs. Toronto). But the Knicks are now seemingly back on track with three straight wins and they’re back in the top six of the Eastern Conference.
Toronto came into that last meeting with the Knicks on a six-game losing streak. Fast forward to today and they are reeling yet again with losses in four out of their last five games. A massive rally Wednesday against Milwaukee (trailed by 21 with 3:50 to go) was ultimately in vain as the Raptors eventually lost in OT. They are now 3-10 L13 games.
As tempting as the points look here, the Knicks’ three straight victories have come at the expense of: Houston, San Antonio and a depleted Phoenix team.
I like the Under here as - even with OT - the Raptors’ last game only saw 205 combined points scored. They have not shot the ball well of late (42.9% L5 games) and the Knicks don’t shoot well when they are on the road (43.8%). Pascal Siakam scored 52, a career-high for him, in that previous meeting. That won’t happen again. The Under is 11-5 in the Knicks’ previous 16 road games. 10* |
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01-04-23 | Hawks v. Kings OVER 243.5 | Top | 120-117 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
Expect plenty of points Wednesday night when the Hawks and Kings match up. Last night, Sacramento scored 117 pts for the 7th time in the last 10 games as they beat Utah by two. At home, the Kings are averaging 122.3 points/game this year. That’s the good news. But the bad news is they also allow 118.9 points/game here. Atlanta is horrible defensively. Yes, the 143-141 loss to Golden State Monday was a double overtime game. But this is a team that has also allowed 129 to Indiana and 130 to the Lakers in regulation over their last four games. The Over is 13-5 this season when the Hawks hit the road. The Under is 5-0 the L5 meetings between these teams, but it’s time for an Over. They only combined for 221 points in a November matchup, but neither team shot all that well and the Kings were 30% from three-point range. 8* |
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01-04-23 | Lightning v. Wild UNDER 6.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 14 m | Show |
The Lightning /Wild match-up pits two resurgent teams with very similar recent performances. Both teams are 8-2 L10, and both have given up 2 goals or less in those eight wins. It is literally years since these two teams met, so there is no recent history as a guide. The Lighting have a decided edge on offense, but are playing their second game in two nights. Both teams have solid defense, playing in shutdown mode of late. The Lightning will very likely start Vasilevskiy, having started Elliott against the weaker Black Hawks in Game one on Tuesday. Sporting a .921 save % and a 2.42 Goals Against average, he has been exceptional in recent games. Gustavsson is projected to start for the Wild. He has also been very good in a larger than fill-in role for Minnesota this year. Injuries are not really a concern for either team at the moment. The under is 8-2 in the Wilds’ last 10 games, and 3-1 in Tampa Bay’s last 4. With two very good net-minders, two solid defenses, and a tired Lightning offense another low scoring game seems likely. Wager on another under on Wednesday. |
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01-03-23 | Kansas State v. Texas UNDER 138.5 | Top | 116-103 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
Two 12-1 teams meet Tuesday in Big XII action as Texas hosts Kansas State. While these teams may have the same won-loss record, they are not viewed as equals. Texas is #6 at KenPom while Kansas State is #45. So I’m not surprised that the Longhorns opened as a double digit favorite.
The Chris Beard situation makes Texas a tricky team to handicap right now, but I still expect them to continue to play excellent defense. Their last five games have all gone Over, but there was an overtime game mixed in there (1st game w/o Beard) and the Longhorns scored 97 and 100 themselves in two others.
Kansas State is decent enough defensively (38th in efficiency) to keep the Texas offensive attack in check.
But worrisome for the Wildcats is the fact they were down 11 to West Virginia at halftime of their last game. They rallied for an overtime win, 82-76, but that was at home. At the end of regulation, the score of that Kansas State-West Virginia game was 66-66. I really think we’ve got an inflated total on our hands here and will play the Under. 10* |
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01-02-23 | Golden Knights v. Avalanche OVER 6 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
The Knights are on the road to face a disappointing Avalanche team, with both sides seriously depleted by injuries. The Avs have lost three straight since the break, with all games going over the total. The good news for Colorado is that MacKinnon is back. Their offense, ranked 25th, certainly needs a boost. Colorado plays at home tonight, but aren't nearly as invincible a home squad as in seasons past. Georgiev is the likely starter. He has not been at all sharp since Christmas, allowing 14 goals on 93 shots in his last three games. He was pulled in the loss against the Leafs last time out. The Golden Knights' should start Thompson (.915 SV %) in net. His numbers have tumbled a bit as well in recent games. The Knights are just 1-2 since Christmas, but have been tough to beat on the road at 14-3 this season. They are very depleted at center and defense tonight. The Knights are off a shoot out 5-4 win, but will miss Eichel today. Goal-tending has bee a recent concern for the two teams, and both are very weak on defensemen tonight. I am not confident of a winner in this match-up but do believe the game will surpass the total, now set at six. Take Vegas and Colorado to go over. |
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01-02-23 | Utah v. Penn State OVER 52.5 | Top | 21-35 | Win | 100 | 19 h 24 m | Show |
Utah is likely to be motivated here after losing last year’s Rose Bowl 48-45 to Ohio State. The Utes led most of that game, only to see QB Cam Rising get hurt. The Utes are once again Pac 12 Champs and even though TE Kincaid won’t play here, they should have no problem scoring on a Penn State defense that allowed 41 to Michigan and 44 to Ohio State. The Nittany Lions won’t have their top corner (Joey Porter Jr) here as well. Utah will be without CB Clark Phillips III, who is arguably their best defender. The Penn State offense is top 10 in the country at scoring touchdowns when inside the red zone. Conversely, the Utah defense was 110th at giving up TDs when opposing offenses get inside the 20. The market seems to believe we’re in store for a second straight high scoring Rose Bowl Game and so do I. The Over is 12-5 in Penn State’s last 17 non-conf games and 4-0 their last four games vs. Pac 12 opponents. 10* |
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01-02-23 | Purdue v. LSU UNDER 54.5 | Top | 7-63 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 24 m | Show |
With the “skeleton crew” they’ll be trotting out, I don’t think you should expect many points from Purdue in the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl. Among those missing in action on the offensive side of the ball for the Boilermakers will be: QB O’Connell, WR Jones and TE Durham. That’s why we’ve seen this line balloon over the course of the last couple weeks. Purdue will be without several defensive starters as well. But it’s the offense that I’m most worried about. Don’t forget that the Boilermakers also lost their head coach (Jeff Brohm) to Louisville. Brohm’s younger brother Brian will be the interim coach here. But how interested is he? Things are so dire at the QB position that famous alum Drew Brees has been tapped to mentor Austin Burton, who will be making just his second career start. LSU won’t have WR Boutee, who decided to opt-out. The Tigers also have opt outs on the defensive side, but because of their superior depth should have little problem shutting down Purdue’s depleted offense. Unless the LSU offense goes completely wild in this game, which I don’t anticipate happening, then the Under looks like a formality. That’s the way the market is moving as well. 8* |
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12-31-22 | Ohio State v. Georgia OVER 62 | Top | 41-42 | Win | 100 | 35 h 19 m | Show |
I’m targeting the CFP semifinal between Ohio State and Georgia for my biggest O/U play of bowl season.
Ohio State is 9-1 to the Over in its last 10 games. We all saw the defensive issues against Michigan. But the Buckeyes are still averaging 44.5 points/game themselves for the season.
Georgia should have no problem putting up points Saturday night. They scored 50 in the SEC Championship against LSU. They also gave up 30 though.
As great as the Bulldogs’ defense is, I see them struggling to contain Buckeyes QB CJ Stroud, who led the country in passing efficiency. Also worth noting is that the Over is 6-0 the last six times Ohio State has faced a team with a winning record. I may add to my analysis later, but definitely wanted to get this pick out ASAP so you can bet now. I expect the number will continue to rise. 10* |
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12-30-22 | Suns v. Raptors UNDER 224.5 | Top | 104-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
The Raptors are just 2-8 straight up their last 10 games after losing 119-106 here at home to the Grizzlies last night. Things haven’t gone much better against the spread for the NBA’s lone Canadian franchise as they are 3-7 at the betting window in that same 10-game stretch.
The Suns are in the middle of a six-game road trip and things haven’t been going all that well for them either. Wednesday saw the team go down 127-102 in Washington. That was the fourth loss in five games for Phoenix, who is 4-9 SU L13.
I like this game to stay Under the total. Yes, the Suns’ last three games have all gone Over as have the Raptors’ last four. But that’s been “baked” into this number.
When playing in the second game of a back to back, Raptors’ games have averaged just over 216 points. Additionally, Phoenix is dealing with multiple injuries at the moment. The most notable being Devin Booker. Playing a fourth straight time on the road is hardly a likely time to find your offensive rhythm. 10* |
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12-29-22 | Minnesota v. Syracuse OVER 44 | Top | 28-20 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
Looking to go Over in the Pinstripe Bowl as Minnesota takes on Syracuse. It’s a very low total, one of the lowest of the entire bowl season.
This was set to be a battle of top tier running backs. But Syracuse’s Sean Tucker has opted out. That’s one of the reasons they are big favorites to the Golden Gophers, who will have Mohamed Ibrahim.
The Orange closed the regular season poorly, by losing five of six after a 6-0 start. Minnesota, closed strong, winning four of five and has a defense that isn’t expected to give up many points to the Tucker-less Orange. But I expect Syracuse to pass the ball effectively in this game and catch the Golden Gophers defense off guard.
On the other side, Minnesota should have its way on the ground against a Syracuse defense that is bad against the run. The Orange are 112th in rushing success allowed and 117th in line yards. Considering Syracuse allowed 38 or more points in three of its last five games, Minnesota won’t need much help getting this one Over the low total. Play Over. 10* |
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12-28-22 | Kansas v. Arkansas OVER 68.5 | Top | 53-55 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
This matchup between Kansas and Arkansas in the Liberty Bowl should produce a ton of points. The first thing you need to know is that Arkansas’ defense will be very short-handed, due to players opting out. The most notable absences are at linebacker where Drew Sanders and Bumper Pool won’t play. The Kansas offense had no problem putting up points in 2022, especially when QB Jalon Daniels was healthy, which he is here. The Jayhawks’ offense will be the best unit on the field Wednesday and comes in averaging over 34 points/game against defenses that mostly cared. Not sure Arkansas’ defense cares here and there will be a ton of inexperience out there. But the Razorbacks, who are favored, should score as well. The Kansas’ defense isn’t any good as it yielded over 33 points/game in the regular season. The last three Jayhawks’ opponents scored 47, 55 and 43 points. I think this has a good shot at being the highest scoring bowl we’ve seen thus far, topping last night’s Birmingham Bowl (82 points). Over is the clear call. The Over has hit in five of Kansas’ last six games and six of Arkansas’ last eight games. 10* |
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12-27-22 | Wild v. Jets UNDER 6 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 22 h 44 m | Show |
The Winnipeg Jets return from the break at home, where they are a fine 12-5 this season. The Wild, on a 6-1 run, are less impressive on the road, 8-6 so far. The Wild are just average on offense, but are certainly over-achieving on defense, limiting opposing offenses to just 6 goals total in those wins. Both of their goaltenders have been sharp in net. Fleurie has underwhelmed until recently, but was very very sharp leading up to the break. The Jets are playing a much more disciplined and defensively-responsible style of hockey under new coach Bowness. They are 4th-ranked in goals-against to date, and a strong fifth on the Penalty Kill. #1 goaltender Hellebuyck, bouncing back from an off year in 2021, is Vezina-good this season. The Jets and Wild are both pretty average on offense, but have both been stingy in the goals-against recently. Both teams have top-rated and competitive veteran net-minders, so perhaps we will see a little extra rivalry in goal. the Under has been THE main feature for both teams lately; 6 of 7 in Wild games , and 6 straight for the Jets. Here is a trend I don't want to buck. Take the Jets and Wild to go under the total again on Tuesday. |
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12-26-22 | New Mexico State v. Bowling Green UNDER 48.5 | Top | 24-19 | Win | 100 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
These are two of the worst bowl teams, but neither New Mexico State nor Bowling Green will be lacking motivation. This is only the second bowl for NMSU since 1960 and they scrambled to get a 12th regular season game (crushed a FCS team) to get eligible for this game. Bowling Green will be making its first bowl appearance since 2015.
BG should have the edge in crowd support, given that we’re talking about only a 90 min drive from campus up to Detroit. I’d imagine the trip from Las Cruces, the day after Christmas, isn’t going to be a popular one for Aggies’ fans.
Both of these offenses are bad. New Mexico State posted three big point totals down the stretch, but two were against FCS teams. They are averaging only 17.7 points/game away from home this year. As for Bowling Green, they cannot run the ball effectively and scored 17 or points or less in 7 of their 12 games.
The Falcons do have a pretty good defense though and actually rank in the top 10 nationally in sacks!
BG’s offense ranked only 108th nationally in yards per play. The New Mexico State defense is top 20. I am looking for a low-scoring bowl game on Monday afternoon. Play the Under. 10* |
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12-23-22 | Canucks v. Oilers OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
The Canucks are off a come-from-behind shoot-out victory last night, and now travel to Edmonton to meet the Oilers today. It appears that 2nd stringer Spencer Martin will be back in the net with no viable option as a replacement. The Canucks will be a tired team, no doubt looking ahead to the break. The Oilers are just 1-4 lately with five straight games going over the total. Their top two stars usually excel vs the Canucks. The Canucks' defense and penalty kill are among the league's worst, but they can put the puck in the net. The Oilers are no great shakes on defense either, but do sport the 3rd best offense and the league's top power play. |
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12-23-22 | Houston v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 57 | Top | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
It’s Houston vs. Louisiana in the Independence Bowl. Houston (8-4) comes in as a touchdown favorite against a 6-6 Louisiana team. Really, you could argue that both of these teams had disappointing seasons. Louisiana was 13-1 last season but lost a bunch of talent and their coach (Billy Napier to Florida). I’m not really surprised that the Ragin Cajuns fell off a bit this year. The offense really didn’t dip all that much (31.1 to 27.0 points/game) but be aware that they’ll come in with a backup QB for this game. Houston really didn’t have a problem scoring points, but their defense was bad. As a result, the Cougars are 9-2-1 to the Over this season, which is the highest Over percentage in the FBS. That includes a 4-0 record in non-conference games. That said, this number is too high. The top Louisiana receiver opted out to prepare for the NFL Draft. Houston coach Dana Holgorsen is never good in bowls, so I’m not expecting a great effort from the other side either. The Under is 4-0 in Houston’s last four neutral site games. Facing Houston’s pass-happy offense won’t intimidate Louisiana, who has one of the best secondaries from the Group of Five (15 interceptions). I would not be surprised if QB Tune and WR Dell don’t play the full game for UH. The number has moved down and I agree with that. 10* |
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12-20-22 | Jazz v. Pistons OVER 229.5 | Top | 126-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
Second night of a back to back for Utah, who got blown out Monday in Cleveland 122-99 as a seven-point dog. It was the second straight 20+ point loss for the Jazz, who may have finally “hit their wall.” This was a team not expected to contend in 2022-23 but has played .500 ball through 33 games. That sounds nice, but you have to consider they’ve now dropped 10 of their last 15. Of course, the Pistons are pretty much “as bad as advertised.” They have the worst record in the league coming into tonight at 8-24. They’ve dropped five of six, the only win coming against 8-23 Charlotte. So I’ve got zero interest in backing the home team in this one either. So let’s now look at the total. Utah hasn’t scored 100 in back to back games, but they also just faced two of the best defensive teams in the league. Detroit is second worst in defensive efficiency. The Over is 10-4 in Pistons’ home games due in large part to the fact they give up nearly 119 points/game here. They’ve also allowed 122 or more to four straight opponents. Utah has allowed 122 or more in each of its last three games, so expect plenty of scoring tonight in this one. Go Over. 10* |
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12-19-22 | Sabres v. Golden Knights OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 50 m | Show |
The high-scoring Sabres are on the road against the Golden Knights on Monday. The Sabres have won three straight and are above .500 on the road. Vegas is 1-3 in recent home games, and their young goalie Thompson has also tended to struggle more at home. Vegas has a lengthy injury list with some key players out. The Sabres have the top offense in the league but defense is often not a priority, allowing 3.5 goals a game. The Knights are a solid defensive team, but their 24th ranked PK will be up against the Sabres second ranked Power Play. Vegas is also not immune to some high totals, allowing 5 against the Islanders and the Jets in recent games. |
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12-18-22 | Eagles v. Bears OVER 48.5 | Top | 25-20 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 47 m | Show |
The Eagles are best in so many categories, points for, TDs scored, and most pass defense categories to name a few, that it is easier to talk about their faults which mostly relate to their run defense. Rush yards-against is just 18th rated, yards per carry is 24th, and they are poor vs rushing QBs. They have also allowed high marks to passers in two of their last three games. |
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12-18-22 | France v. Argentina OVER 2 | Top | 2-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
It is Messi vs possibly his heir apparent in Mbape facing each other in the World Cup final. France scored a pair against a tough Maroc side, but the Atlas Lions, much less of an offensive powerhouse than Argentina, had their chances. Argentina ran up 3 goals against Craotia. Both teams have superlative offenses and real star power, but have conceded goals in the tournament. France has scored 13 and allowed 5, with Argentina conceding 5 and scoring 12. One has the feeling that Messi will be all-out in likely his last chance for a world cup victory, with France just as determined to repeat as champions. This will be another very close offense driven game. It is very likely that we sill see goals from both sides, possibly multiples. Frances was victorious in the 2018 World Cup match, winning 4-3. It is not unlikely that we will see something similar on Sunday. Take Argentina and France to go over. |
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12-17-22 | Dolphins v. Bills UNDER 44 | Top | 29-32 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 20 m | Show |
The Dolphins face the Bills on a cold day in Buffalo. Better than a cold day in the usual place, though possibly not for the warm weather Dolphins. Miami beat the Bills in their first meeting in September, but have struggled lately with two straight losses. Tua and the Dolphins” pass offense have been much less effective as defenses adjust their coverage to Miami’s pass attack. The Dolphins don’t run much or score much on the ground, a disadvantage considering the snow and cold temperatures this Saturday. On defense, the Dolphins are tough against the run, 7th and improving in rush yards allowed, while giving up just 3.4 yards per carry. They are less successful when it is QBs running. They also get their licks in against passers, with 33 sacks, but do struggle in pass yards allowed (350 yards last week!) The Bills defend very well on the ground, but are less successful against good passing teams like the Vikings and Dolphins. On offense, they are a better team than Miami on the ground, but have seen their passing yards and points drop somewhat of late. Allen has been sacked steadily, but it doesn’t seem to affect him particularly. On defense the Bills have limited teams to 15 points L3, and have been tough in the Red Zone, in takeaways, and on passer pressure . They’ve been very solid vs the run and have limited passers to a rating of 81 for the season. Conditions suggest more of a running game on Saturday which favors the Bills. I think Buffalo stands a very good chance of shutting down Miami’s pass-first offense this week, but the best bet will be on the total. Take the Dolphins and Bills to go under. |
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12-14-22 | Morocco v. France OVER 2 | Top | 0-2 | Push | 0 | 25 h 31 m | Show |
France and Morocco meet in an absolutely pan-global classic underdog/favorite matchup. France's defense has not been their forte ,and has given up a goal in every match so far in the World Cup. They haven't looked particularly focused on the back end, and have given up too many free kicks on careless play. Morocco has yet to yield a goal in the tournament, other than an own-goal vs Canada, although Portugal should have scored, with far too many shots off the target. Morocco has has proven to be composed, unified and quite unflappable when defending to date and has a very strong net-minder in Bounou. The Atlas Lions have also been potent on the counterattack and have shown excellent finish to date. That said, France is formidable on offense with 11 goals in the tournament to date, and at least a trio of elite potential goalscorers in Mbappe, Griezmann and Giroux. I 'm betting on both teams connecting for goals; France with likely more than 1. Morocco might be content to play for a draw and penalty shots, but France, after Bono's heroics in net, will not want to leave this game to chance. Morocco, the underdog, will be under tremendous pressure,with home country, and the Pan-Arab and african worlds passionately behind them. They have been poised to date, but this level of playl is all new to them. France, winner of the last world Cup, has pressure of their own but is on familiar ground. I am on the total on Wednesday. I am not sure of a winner, but the total will go over. |
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12-13-22 | Celtics v. Lakers UNDER 235 | Top | 122-118 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
The Celtics have dropped two straight and are now at the end of a six-game road trip. I made the mistake of backing this team last night when they lost to the Clippers 113-93. After winning 17 out of 19 games, Boston has now been outscored by 36 in the losses to LA and Golden State.
All five games so far on this road trip have stayed Under. The Under is now 11-3 in Celtics’ road games this season. There are even more trends that support an Under play tonight against the Lakers. When the total is 230 or higher (as it is for this game) for a Celtics game this season, the Under is 8-1. That includes a perfect 7 for 7 on the road.
The Lakers had been one of the league’s better defensive teams at the start of the season, but have since fallen to the middle of the pack. They are 6-1 to the Over in their last seven games, but almost all of those were played on the road.
I know Boston’s offense has been historically great to start the year. But at the end of a long road trip, it could be “tired legs” time. Especially on the second night of a back to back, a situation where they’ve admittedly thrived, but none of the previous instances were like this at the end of a long trip. Earlier in the trip, in a back to back, they went Under vs. Toronto. As expected, money seems to be on the Over for this nationally televised matchup. But I think there’s some real value in taking the Under, given not only Boston’s situation but the fact the Lakers just returned home from their own long road trip. 10* |
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12-11-22 | Bucs v. 49ers UNDER 37.5 | Top | 7-35 | Loss | -112 | 16 h 36 m | Show |
The Buccaneers face the 49ers at home after a come-from-behind victory vs the Saints last week. Let's not forget that the Bucs did nothing on offense for most of the game, ending with one less than the usual average 18 points on offense. The 49ers defense is a different beast than the Saints'. They are first overall, stifling against the run if Tampa attempts it, and a healthy eighth against the pass. The 49ers have held passers including Tua to a 69 passer rating in their last three weeks. The 49ers are also physically tough on passers, and had 4 sacks and 4 takeaways last week. |
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12-09-22 | Wild v. Oilers OVER 6.5 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
The Oilers are 5-2 L7, but are averaging just over .500 at home this year. They lost to the Wild in Minnesota a week ago, so will be looking for pay-back in tonight's game. The Oilers struggle historically vs the Wild. Edmonton has their big guns, plus Nugent-Hopkins, but secondary scoring is an issue, along with defense (22nd rated) and PK (28th rated). Campbell likely starts in net tonight for the Oilers. He is struggling, with a 4.12 goals against avg. and .872 save %, and it appears the #1 goalie torch has been passed to Skinner. The Wild also have an underachieving goalie in Fleurie, who has allowed more than 4 goals a game in his last starts and has a save % of under .900 this year. The 6-2 Wild have been overachieving on offense lately, averaging over 4 goals a game while allowing at least 3 goals against in their last 6 games. They have gone over the total in 7 straight. We have also seen "over-achievement" with the Oilers. Neither team could be called defensively fixated. Expect a free-wheeling affair tonight and take the over. |
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12-07-22 | Canucks v. Sharks OVER 6.5 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 22 h 58 m | Show |
The Canucks were down 0-4 and rallied to win 7-6 in OT in their last game. They are a frustrating team but can put the puck in the net both on five on five and on the PP. It is keeping the puck out of the net that is their problem with a 30th ranked defense and now an injury to their #1 goaltender Demko. Back-up net-minder Martin did not inspire confidence on Sunday; he was pulled after allowing 4 goals on 8 shots. |
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12-07-22 | Hornets v. Nets OVER 222 | Top | 116-122 | Win | 100 | 7 h 23 m | Show |
Brooklyn has gone Under in five straight games, but in each instance the number was higher than it is here. I like this game vs. Charlotte to go Over the total.
Since Steve Nash was fired, the Nets’ defense has improved tremendously as they are fourth in efficiency. But one thing they still don’t do well is rebound the basketball. They are dead last in the league in defensive rebounding rate at 68.8%.
Charlotte is seventh in offensive rebounding rate, so I see them getting plenty of second-chance opportunities in this matchup.
You also have to think Brooklyn is going to shoot the ball a lot better here than it did vs. an elite Boston team on Sunday. The Celtics held the Nets to a field goal percentage of 40.5. They had previously topped 50% in eight of nine games. The Hornets have scored 117 in two of their last three games. But they too had issues giving up offensive rebounds in a loss to the Clippers on Monday. LA grabbed 13 offensive boards, leading to 25 second-chance points. They finished with 119 points overall, winning the game in the final minute. 10* |
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12-07-22 | Michigan State v. Penn State UNDER 138 | Top | 67-58 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
Michigan State has lost two in a row, both as favorites, and failed to cover three straight. They are just 1-5 ATS L6 games. They’ve played a ton of close games so far with four decided by four points or less and that does not even include a double overtime win against Kentucky.
Speaking of double overtime games, Penn State just lost one of those, 101-94 at Clemson last week as part of the Big 10-ACC Challenge. They’ve been off ever since, so that’s a bit of an edge in the Nittany Lions favor as MSU has played two times since that Penn State-Clemson loss took place.
I don’t really want to fade Sparty off back to back losses though, so let’s look at the total. The number has been bet up, which makes sense when you consider the final score of that Penn State-Clemson game and the fact MSU has gone Over in six of its last seven. But Penn State had gone Under in five straight prior to losing to Clemson.
Michigan State has put up just 115 points in the last two games combined and is still without Malik Hall. Their biggest concern here is defending the three-point line as PSU is shooting 40.4% from deep, including 46.2% at home. The thing is, I can’t see those numbers continuing, regardless of how well the Spartans defend in this game. Both teams are playing slow this year, ranking 284 and 299 in pace respectively. I see value on the Under. 8* |
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12-05-22 | Saints v. Bucs UNDER 41.5 | Top | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 21 h 57 m | Show |
The Buccaneers are at home and facing the Saints, a team that has dominated Brady since his arrival in Tampa. It is a critical game, but neither team seems to be playing with much success lately. The Bucs have averaged just 18 points a game all season, a far cry from their heyday. The Saints offense managed a goose egg last week, but did hold a tough 49’ers offense to just 13 points. Both defenses have limited the opposition to just 17 points in their last three games. Tampa, at 32nd in most rush categories, will do anything other than run the ball, despite the success they had against the Seahawks. The Saints will run but appear to be spinning their wheels for the last 3 weeks, managing just 3 yards a carry, 60 yards a game, and no points at all from the run. New Orleans’ pass attack under Dalton has been consistently very average, with nothing standing out other than too many picks, sacks and fumbles. Brady has been accurate, well protected until last week, but playing small ball all season, with the 26th (and sinking) ranked yards per completion figures in the league. With Wirfs out and the usual Saints strategy for Brady of “go straight at him”, he may just sully his uniform this week. The Buccaneers beat the Saints earlier in the season in New Orleans, but the Saints have owned the Bucs in the regular season when facing them on the road. I think the safest outcome this week is in the total. Look for both defenses to star against a pair of struggling offenses, and wager on the under. |
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12-05-22 | Croatia v. Japan OVER 2 | Top | 1-1 | Push | 0 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
Japan faces a very experienced Croatian side, who other than a dominant come-from -behind 4-1 drubbing of Canada, have been rather stolid so far, with a pair of nil-nil draws. In spite of their loss to Costa Rica, Japan has impressed with a full throttle 4 goal qualifying round including victories over Spain and Germany. The Samurii Blue are not timid, and have counterattacked and finished against two top teams. I like their chances to score again on Monday, forcing Croatia into opening up on offense. Japan is inexperienced, young, but very fast and will not be cowed, and will take it to the older Croatian side. Look for the total to go over 2, with both sides scoring. Third goal will decide it. |
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12-04-22 | Oregon v. UCLA UNDER 143.5 | Top | 56-65 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
Oddsmakers are expecting a high-scoring game between Oregon and UCLA on Sunday, but I say “not so fast.” Yes, the Ducks are 16-5 Over L21 road games and 30-14 Over L44 conference games. And, yes, the Bruins have gone Over in five straight. But I believe this number to be too high.
Oregon’s highest scoring game of the year was a 74-70 loss to Michigan State. Their games are averaging 133.1 points/game so far, which is well below this total.
Now UCLA averages 82.6 points/game. But they are also only giving up 57.6 points/game at home.
Oregon is the tallest team in the country and I expect that size to give UCLA problems at the offensive end. The Ducks are also playing pretty slow this season (237th in adjusted tempo) while UCLA is also outside the top 100 in that regard. Can’t imagine the Bruins will shoot as well here as they did in the last game vs. Stanford where they made their first eight shot attempts and ended up hitting almost 60% from the floor. Play the Under. 10* |
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12-02-22 | Pittsburgh v. NC State OVER 146.5 | Top | 68-60 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
I’m going to call for a lot of points here as Pittsburgh and NC State open up the ACC portion of their schedules. Take the Over.
Pitt has won four in a row - by an average of 21.5 points/game. Now beating Alabama State, Fairleigh Dickinson and William & Mary isn’t going to cause anyone to go running through the streets. But the Panthers did just hang 87 points on a Northwestern team that had previously been playing good defense. The total for that game was 128.5. That should tell you all you need to know about how Pitt performed offensively in that one.
North Carolina State is allowing opponents to hit 34.3% from three-point range. That is likely to be a problem for them against a Pitt team that is not only attempting 26 threes per game. Over the last five games, Pitt is shooting 38% from deep.
But where Pitt could run into some trouble here is turnovers. They are turning the ball over on 20.4% of their possessions. NC State turns teams over on 22.3% of possessions. The Wolfpack are top 35 in the country in both offensive efficiency and tempo. So they can score. Six of their games this season have gone Over. Pitt is 5-2 Over last 7. 10* |
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12-01-22 | Bills v. Patriots OVER 43.5 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 39 m | Show |
The Bills face the Patriots at home in a much anticipated meeting. The Patriots haven’t face many top offenses this year, so the Vikings’ high point total didn’t really surprise. As good as their offense has been, NE can struggle against elite and especially rushing QBs. While Allen is playing hurt, there is nothing wrong with his legs, and he has a terrific track record against NE. The Patriots had very little success in managing Jefferson last week. Can they do any better against “Allen to Diggs?” The injury-depleted Bills aren’t playing up to their early season standard in the last month, but it hasn’t been the offense that has taken the biggest hit. Buffalo has averaged 29 points on offense over the last three games, almost the same as their season’s average. They are running the ball more and had solid success in the red zone last week. Where the Bills have struggled in the last 4 weeks is on defense. They have seen their points-allowed climb to 27 over the last three games, up 8 from their season average. The Patriots, who are not the strongest offense managed to put up 26 points and over 400 yards on offense against the Vikings last week. The Bills have had reinforcements on the injury front, but now have Von Miller MIA, a huge hit. Jones had his best game of the season last week, with 3 TDs, no picks and a 116 passer rating. The Bills have allowed 293 passing yards in the last 3 games, and a 93 passer rating. While the Patriots are just 2 games away from a miserable 10 point result on offense, I think there is potential for them to put up some points this week again. The total is Thursday night’s best bet. Wager on the over. |
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11-30-22 | Sabres v. Red Wings OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 19 h 39 m | Show |
The Sabres, winner of just 2 of 10 games, face a streaky Red Wings team in Detroit on Wednesday. The Sabres are below .500 on the road this season, but it isn't their offense that should be faulted for their lack of wins. They've had solid and balanced scoring this year, with the fourth ranked offense and a 7th place PP. They have, however, been quite shaky on defense, with the third worst defense and PK. Not surprisingly, we have seen 4 of 5 games go over the total, including a 11 goal total on Monday. |
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11-28-22 | Suns v. Kings UNDER 233.5 | Top | 122-117 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
Still no Chris Paul for Phoenix. He’ll miss his 10th straight game as the Suns host the Kings Monday night in what shapes up as a pretty important Pacific Division matchup. Sacramento has been hot. They’ve won six straight home games.
Now the Kings do return to Golden 1 Center off back to back road losses. They averaged just 105 points/game in falling at Atlanta and Boston.
Given how much they’ve been scoring at home this year (123.9 points/game), one might be inclined to bet the Kings Over here. However, I see some regression coming their way. Their last three games, admittedly all on the road, all stayed Under.
Phoenix has gone Under in four straight. They’ve allowed an average of 103.5 points in those four games. The Suns usually do a good job at defending the three-point line and that’s huge against a Kings team that will take a high volume of outside shots. No Cameron Johnson either for the Suns. The Kings are 5-1 Under so far when facing a team that has a winning record. 10* |
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11-28-22 | Seattle University v. Washington UNDER 141.5 | Top | 66-77 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
There are only 20 teams still unbeaten in College Basketball. Seattle U is one of them! The RedHawks are 5-0 straight up and have covered the spread in all three lined games. Their last game was an 89-53 beatdown of Pacific Lutheran. Seattle has won twice out on the road, against UC San Diego and Portland.
But Washington is obviously the best team Seattle has faced yet. The Huskies are 5-1, their only loss coming to Cal Baptist. Without a shadow of a doubt, the team’s most impressive performance to date came last Thursday when they stunned St. Mary’s 68-64 as 10 point underdogs.
It is telling though that UW is only a small favorite at home. They are not a great offensive team (153rd in efficiency per KenPom) and largely rely on a defense that plays a 2-3 zone, forcing the opposition into long possessions. Teams are shooting just 39.1% against the Huskies, 25.9% from three, and averaging 63.3 points/game.
Seattle has never beaten Washington in 14 previous tries. They were close last year, losing by only eight. This is a game the RedHawks badly want to win. With such importance placed on this one, I expect a lower-scoring game with fewer possessions than normal. The last two times these teams have played, there were only 120 and 114 points scored. Those games stayed Under by 22 and 21 points respectively. There’s value with this number now north of 140 points. 10* |
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11-26-22 | Notre Dame v. USC UNDER 64.5 | Top | 27-38 | Loss | -107 | 33 h 16 m | Show |
Both Notre Dame and USC have gone Over the total in their last five games. But I will be bucking that trend here with my biggest CFB total of the season.
Notre Dame has something that USC hasn’t seen much of this season, that being a good defense. The Fighting Irish are top 30 in scoring, holding opponents to only 20.3 points/contests. Also, no opponent has been able to reach 400 total yards against them. Not even Ohio State. Unlike UCLA, ND has an elite secondary.
Notre Dame’s offense will also be able to control the football, thanks to the rushing attack. USC is very bad at stopping the run. One of the easiest ways to slow down the Trojans’ offense is to simply keep them off the field. I think the Fighting Irish will be able to do just that.
USC hasn’t beaten Notre Dame since 2016. In the last four meetings, they have been held to 16, 27, 17 and 14 points. As for the USC defense, Notre Dame does not have the kind of passing attack most teams in the Pac 12 do. The Trojans also excel at taking the ball away (#1 in FBS). Only two ND opponents have been able to score more than 26 points all season. The previous high O/U line this season for them was 58.5 vs. Ohio State. That game easily stayed Under. This is only the fifth ND game all year with a total higher than 48.5. Play the Under. 10* |
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11-25-22 | Ecuador v. Netherlands OVER 2.25 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -60 | 17 h 16 m | Show |
The Dutch took their time about it, but persevered to beat Senegal 2-0. Ecuador produced a similar result against an easier team in Quatar. Equador could be a bit of a sleeper in the group. They were 4th in South America and drew 1-1 against both Argentina and Brazil in the qualifying round. Equador has some fine young talent on the team, but got a pair of goals from 33 year old Valencia in Game One.The young Van Gaal coached Netherlands team, while inexperienced is rich in talent. Their top scoring threat, Memphis Depay played just 30 minutes but is expected to get more playing time in Game 2. By rights, Equator ought to be an easier match-up than Senegal, but those draws against top South American squads, and the number of goals that they scored in qualifying games should make the Dutch take note. I expect at least 1 goal at least from each squad, as both have significant offenses and neither the Dutch nor the Equadorians are gifted in goal keepers. Take the over, in this case, over 2.25. |
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11-24-22 | Mississippi State v. Ole Miss UNDER 62 | Top | 24-22 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
Let’s go with the Under in the Egg Bowl. The number has come down, but I’m still seeing value north of 60 points. Eight of the last nine Egg Bowls, including the last five, have all stayed Under.
Those last five editions of this rivalry have all seen fewer than 60 combined points scored.
There’s disarray in Oxford right now with Lane Kiffin’s future seemingly in doubt. Maybe he stays? Maybe he goes? Regardless, Ole Miss is 1-3 its last four games and through three quarters last week had just six points on the board.
This Mississippi State offense can also run hot and cold. On the road, it’s been mostly the latter as they average just 19.5 points and all four games have gone Under. In a rivalry like this, there won’t be a ton of points scored. 10* |
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11-23-22 | Japan v. Germany OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
No 0-0 draws in this match! Both Germany and Japan went home with major disappointment after the last World Cup. It is more accurate to say that the Germans, normally a world power, were humiliated, resulting in a sea change in team makeup. Both Germany and Japan have young and potent squads this year, and both play an all-out attacking game. Japan is an underdog, but is a very well coached, organized, and driven squad. They waltzed through their preliminary matches, and with many team members playing at a club level in Germany, will be familiar with and not intimidated by the German style. The Germans also dominated their matches leading up to the Cup, but are very much offense focused, and not unknown to give up goals. This could be a very fast paced and exciting game with, I think, a higher than average total. Play on the over. 9*! |
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11-21-22 | 49ers v. Cardinals UNDER 43 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
The 49ers are in Mexico City at a a point in the season where all systems are go. They are healthier, have a dominant run attack, and very tough pass offense lately. They face a Cardinals team who have grown one dimensional on offense, and with possible injuries to key players this week. The Cardinals don't run the ball much, relying on a very short yardage pass attack. While they beat the Rams last week, their passing game hasn't been especially successful this season, just 18th in yards, and last in yds/attempt and yds/completion. I expect the 49ers to key on the Arizona passing game, and rough up who ever plays at QB. The SF defense is tough in all categories, and the 49ers' offense are very strong in holding on to the football with very good time of possession and third down conversion stats. The 49ers don't normally put up huge point totals, but will be very successful at limiting the Cardinals' chances today. Take this game to go under. |
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11-21-22 | Northern Kentucky v. Florida Gulf Coast UNDER 133.5 | Top | 61-82 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
This is the Gulf Coast Showcase, a tournament that takes place in Estero, FL, which is just about 10 minutes from Florida Gulf Coast’s campus. The Eagles face a Northern Kentucky team that is tricky defensively and this should lead to a pretty low-scoring game on Monday night. Northern Kentucky likes to play a matchup zone, which is difficult to break down and often leads to long possessions and bad shots by the opponent. FGCU is already not a particularly great shooting team (37.6 FG% in three games away from home), so they’re likely to struggle offensively in this one. Few teams in the country play slower than Northern Kentucky. The Norse are 341st (out of 363 D-I teams) in pace. Again, that’s conducive to an Under play. NKU is coming off a 64-51 win over Cincinnati. That was a game the Norse came in as 6.5-point underdogs. They held the Bearcats to 33.9% shooting. FGCU could only manage 50 points against Tennessee in its last game, which it lost by 31 (they were 20.5-point underdogs). I just don’t see any way both teams score more than 65 points in this one and neither should “go off” either. 10* |
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11-20-22 | Cowboys v. Vikings OVER 48.5 | Top | 40-3 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 56 m | Show |
The Cowboys are on the road again, this time in a show-down with a red-hot Vikings team. A pass-first team, the Vikings have a very successful rush offense considering they only run the ball a third of the time. Add some great targets for Cousins, Jefferson being the standout, and you have a formidable offense. The Cowboys have allowed 28 and 29 points in their last two weeks and 26 against the Eagles earlier. They have been done in by their inability to handle the run, but their passer rating has climbed to 114/L3 games, in spite of leading the league in passer pressures. The Vikings have a fine running back in Cook, who overachieves considering his usage. I expect the Vikings, like the Packers, to run far more than usual on Sunday. |
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11-18-22 | Celtics v. Pelicans OVER 229.5 | Top | 117-109 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
The Celtics have been winning a lot recently. Eight straight to be exact and over the course of that win streak, they’ve been scoring a ton. Six times they’ve scored 123 or more and this should be another strong offensive showing tonight in the Big Easy.
A career-best 31.1 points/game from Jayson Tatum is pacing the Celtics, who have been favored in every game this season. They are also #1 in the league in points/game at 120.4. Jaylen Brown is also averaging a career-high 25.4 points/game.
The only negative with this Cetics team right now is that their defensive rating has slipped from 1st last season to 16th this season. Robert Williams III being injured has a large hand in that.
New Orleans can score too. The Pelicans just put up 124 in a win over Chicago Wednesday night. They are averaging 116.7 points/game. It remains to be seen if Zion Williamson will play tonight, but even if he doesn’t, you’ve still got Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum to carry the scoring load. The Pelicans aren’t great defensively though as they are allowing 112.1 points/game and that’s not good facing this red-hot Boston team. Expect a high-scoring game in this one. 10* |
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11-17-22 | Islanders v. Predators UNDER 6 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -107 | 18 h 21 m | Show |
The 8-2 Islanders travel to Nashville to meet the Preds who have won 2 straight at home, allowing just a pair of goals total. They only scored 4, and that has been the way of their offense this year. They are 30th in the league in goals scored and PP performance, while the defense has been average. The difference in the last two game is that Saros, who has played to mixed reviews this season, has found his usual form, with a save % of over .970 in those games. |
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11-17-22 | Nebraska v. St. John's OVER 158 | Top | 50-70 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
This figures to be a fast-paced, up-tempo game with a ton of scoring from both teams. St. John’s has played very fast in its first three games, all of which have gone Over. Led by some key transfers, the Red Storm are currently playing at the sixth fastest tempo in the country per KenPom.
Nebraska isn’t playing quite as fast, but the Cornhuskers are 69th in tempo. They have shot 55% from inside the three-point arc in two games, which were wins over Maine and Omaha. They averaged 77 points/game.
Tonight is a clear step up in competition for the ‘Huskers. I do worry about them defensively in this matchup. They allowed those first two opponents to shoot 37% from three-point range and I don’t see them having much of an answer for St. John’s big man Joel Soriano, especially if Derrick Walker remains out.
St. John’s has shot almost 55 percent from the field in their first three games and 41% from three. But they too have defensive issues as more than 40% of the points they allow are coming from behind the arc. The Red Storm going Over the total is not new. They are 24-8 Over the last 32 times they’ve been favored. 10* |
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11-16-22 | Blues v. Blackhawks UNDER 6 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
We've got the league's two worst offenses facing off today when the Blues meet the home team Black Hawks. St. Louis's defense has been no great shakes either, but they did limit Vegas and the Avs to two goals each in their latest games. Chicago's defense has been above average to date. Blues net minder Binnington bounced back with a couple of fine .940+ save % games in his latest appearances. Soderblom has opened some eyes in Chicago allowing just 2.6 goals a game. It is no surprise that the rebuilding Black Hawks haven't been able to sustain their fine start. They have struggled to score lately with 6 straight unders to show for it. The Blues have been a mixed bag, but Binnington is capable of being a game changer, and the Blues seem to be more defensibly responsible in their last three games. Take today's game to go under again. |
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11-16-22 | Eastern Michigan v. Kent State UNDER 60.5 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
Eastern Michigan got bowl eligible with a 34-28 win against Akron last Tuesday. So from here on out, the Eagles are simply trying to move up the bowl pecking order. They can’t win the MAC West (Toledo has already clinched). Meanwhile, going into last week, Kent State knew that it had to win out to get bowl eligible. Well, “step one” was accomplished as the Golden Flashes went to Bowling Green and prevailed 40-6 as 2.5-point chalk. I had the Under in that game, which cashed. Going the same route again here The Under is 7-3 in all of Kent State’s games this season. Since Oct 1, only one has seen more than 60 combined points scored and that at Toledo. While the Flashes are not where they want to be in the standings, they do have a defense that is very good at holding opponents to field goals (top 20 in red zone efficiency). The Eastern Michigan defense tackles well and does not give up a ton of big plays. Since October 1st, the Eagles have allowed more than 28 points only one time and that was a strange game vs. Northern Illinois. Each of the previous three seasons these teams met and the Under has gone 3-0. None of the three games saw more than 60 combined points scored. 8* |
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