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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-24-17 | Blue Jays v. Royals OVER 9 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -112 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: The Kansas City Royals won the first of this three-game series 5-4 over the Toronto Blue Jays on Friday. It was a dramatic win, as Whit Merrifield delivered a walk-off, two-run double to cap a four-run ninth inning. The victory gives Kansas City 10 wins in its last 12 and the Royals are now at .500 (36-35) for the first time since they were 7-7 back on April 19. The Blue Jays opened the season 2-9 and have not been able to reach that .500 plateau and last night's crushing loss drops them another game further away from the break-even mark at 35-38. The Blue Jays began their seven-game road trip with wins in two of the first three at Texas but dropped an 11-4 decision on Thursday, failing in yet another opportunity to move to .500 (team is 0-9 in nine such tries in 2017, getting outscored 73-24!). The pitching matchup: Marco Estrada (4-5 & 4.98 ERA) gets the start for Toronto and will be opposed by KC's best pitcher here in 2017, Jason Vargas (10-3 & 2.27 ERA). The pick: Vargas is pitching great but there should be some concern regarding his poor career numbers vs. Toronto. As for Estrada, he's clearly "off his game" and with a career ERA of 6.13 in June, the Over is a 10* play. |
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06-23-17 | Rangers v. Yankees UNDER 10 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: The Yankees have had a rough 10 days, losing seven in a row from June 13-20 and then after an 8-4 Wednesday win snapped the team's slid, New York was unable to protect a four-run lead in a 10-5 loss to the Angels on Thursday. The Yanks open a three-game home series Friday against the Texas Rangers, having lost eight of nine to fall into virtual tie with the 40-32 Red Sox at 39-31 on the season. Meanwhile, Texas (36-36) has won nine of 13 and while the Rangers remain 13 games back of Houston in the AL West, the team's current streak has them within 1 1/2 games of the second AL wild card spot. |
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06-22-17 | Cubs v. Marlins UNDER 9 | Top | 11-1 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cubs had a three-game winning streak snapped with a 3-2 home loss to San Diego on Wednesday in which they tied a season-low with only two hits. Chicago begins an 11-game trip with four against the Marlins in Miami on Thursday. The Cubs did win their last road series (took two of three at Pittsburgh June 16-18) but prior to that, had gone 4-14 their previous 18 on the road. Miami was being no-hit by Washington’s Max Scherzer entering the eighth inning Wednesday but rallied for a 2-1 win, giving the Marlins their fifth straight series victory at home (Marlins are 12-3 in that span) as they prepare to host the Cubs on Thursday. The pitching matchup: Jake Arrieta (6-5 & 4.64 ERA) will start for Chicago and Jeff Locke (0-2 & 4.58 ERA) for Miami. Arrieta continues to struggle in 2017, after going a combined 40-14 the previous two years. He takes the mound tonight having failed to get out of the fifth inning in his last two starts, lasting a total of just nine innings. Like his team, he's struggled big time on the road, with a 5.09 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in nine away starts. Miami's Locke is win-less in four starts since coming off the disabled list June 1 but he's pitched reasonably well, allowing three ERs or less in all four outings. Locke lost to Arrieta and the Cubs on June 6, when he allowed four runs (three earned) in 4 2/3 innings and that's not exactly new. Locke is 1-4 with a 6.23 ERA in 11 career starts against the Cubs (teams are 3-8). The pick: Locke hasn’t beaten the Cubs since 2013 but as noted above, he has not allowed more than three ERs in any of his four starts in 2017 since getting off the DL. Locke faces a Chicago team which is just 6-15 over its last 21 road contests, averaging only 3.71 RPG. Sure, Arrieta has struggled in 2017 but he limited the Marlins to two runs on just two hits over six innings in a 10-2 win June 6 in Chicago, improving to 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA in three meetings with Miami. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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06-21-17 | White Sox v. Twins UNDER 10 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 27 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: The Minnesota Twins lost their lead in the AL Central when they dropped four straight over the weekend to the Cleveland Indians. The Twins will get another shot at the Indians next weekend (three-game series in Cleveland) but first they host the Chicago White Sox for three games, a series which began last night. The White Sox had won of five of their last seven games heading into the series but were still mired in last place in the AL Central division at 31-37. The Twins came away with a 9-7 win, despite Santana allowing six runs on 10 hits (including two HRs) in just five innings. Minnesota still owns the worst home record in the majors (15-24) but it was huge to its their skid on a night when the team's ace pitcher labored. Chicago's loss dropped them to 16-26 on the road in 2017. The pitching matchup: Lefty David Holmberg (1-0 & 2.63 ERA) gets the start for Chicago and will be opposed by José Berríos (6-1 & 2.74 ERA), who has been a nice surprise for the Twins. Holmberg is in his first season with Chicago, after making 14 appearances (12 starts) the last three seasons. He will be making his fifth start since being shifted from the bullpen to the rotation but has made it through five innings only once. However, he's surely shown great improvement this season, overall. He came into 2017 with a 6.45 career ERA but his ERA is just 2.63 this season plus he owns an 0.88 WHIP with opponents batting only .160 against him. He may be just 1-0 in his previous four starts but Chicago has won three times. Berrios pitched a season-high eight innings in a 6-2 win over Seattle last Thursday. He allowed two runs on five hits to win his third start in a row. He has yet to yield more than six hits in any of his seven starts this season (owns a decision in each one). While the Twins have struggled at home, Berrios has been an exception, going is 2-1 with a 2.61 ERA and 0.87 WHIP at Target Field. The pick: Holmberg has shown excellent improvement in 2017 but the turnaround by Berrios is "off the charts." He was 3-7 in 14 starts last year for Minnesota (team was 3-11), posting an 8.02 ERA, 1.87 WHIP and opponents batted .310 against him. Here in 2017 after seven starts, his ERA is 2.74, his WHIP is 0.96 and hitters are batting only .186 against him. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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06-19-17 | Red Sox v. Royals UNDER 9.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 19 h 12 m | Show |
The pitching matchup: Hector Velazquez (1-1 & 6.48 ERA) gets the nod for Boston and Jason Hammel (3-6 & 5.05 ERA) for Kansas City. Velazquez will make just his second major-league start after holding Philadelphia scoreless on one hit and one walk over 3 1/3 innings on Wednesday to record the victory in relief. His first career start didn't go well, as he gave up six runs on nine hits (including three HRs) over five innings against Oakland back on May 18. Jason Hammel signed with KC as a free agent in the off season and a quick look at his record tells a sad story. The Royals have lost 10 of his 13 starts and his moneyline mark of minus-$584 ranks 240th of 249 starters in 2017. Hammel is 1-3 with a 4.61 ERA in 13 career appearances (six starts / teams are 2-4) versus the Red Sox. The pick: However, looking a little closer at Hammel gives one a slightly different perspective. After a dreadful two months, he's opened June with three consecutive quality starts. which includes a pair of wins and a 2.21 ERA in that stretch. He has a 15-1 KW ratio in 20 1/3 innings during June. As for Velazquez, one has to look past his only previous big league start (a May 18 disaster) and note that he's off a 3 1/3-inning scoreless relief effort in his last outing plus owned a 1.29 ERA in nine outings in Triple-A Pawtucket this season before being called up. I'll make the Under a 10* play. |
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06-17-17 | Red Sox v. Astros UNDER 9.5 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up; This three-game IL series continues Saturday night in Houston, with the Astros hosting the Red Sox. Boston won 2-1 last night and has now won six of its last eight to reach 38-29 on the season, just one game back of the Yankees in the AL East. Houston's 45-23 record remains MLB's best and while the Astros still own a commanding 11-game lead in the AL West, the team has now dropped seven of 10 since its 11-game winning streak The pitching matchup: Rick Porcello (3-8 & 4.67 ERA) takes the mound for Boston and David Paulino (0-0 & 6.59 ERA) for Houston. The reigning Cy Young Award winner has lost three straight decisions and looks like a mess. Porcello has surrendered 66 hits in 43 1/3 innings over his last seven starts and opponents are hitting .310 against him, 80 points higher than during his 2016 season. He's only faced Houston twice in his career, going 1-0 with a 3.29 ERA (teams are 2-0). Paulino has recently een brecalled from Triple-A (May 31) and will make his fourth start of 2017. He has failed to get beyond four innings in two of his three major-league starts in 2017, including giving up five runs in four innings of a no-decision against the Los Angeles Angels this past Sunday. Opponents have 19 hits - including six doubles and three HRs - in just 13 2/3 innings against Paulino since he was recalled last month. He has never faced Boston. The pick: While Porcello has had his struggles in 2017, it should also be pointed out that he has worked at least six innings in each of his last 19 road starts, the longest active streak in the majors, with a 3.30 ERA during that stretch. The Astros won't expect much (or too many innings) from Paulino and while I don't expect another 2-1 game, I don't expect a slug-fest, either. Adding fuel to my pick on the under is the fact that Boston's bullpen has not allowed a run in 24 innings, the team's longest such run since 2009 (25 1/3). Make the Under an 8* play. |
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06-17-17 | Mariners v. Rangers UNDER 11 | Top | 4-10 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: Texas has been an inconsistent team in 2017. The Rangers posted a 10-game winning streak (May 9-19) but followed it with a 4-12 stretch before they went 5-1 during a six-game road trip against division leaders Washington and Houston leading into this series. Texas (now 33-33) made it six wins in its last seven games with Friday's 10-4 series-opening rout. As for Seattle, the Mariners won nine of 10 to get back to the break-even mark on June 7 after falling a season-low eight games under .500, but they are only 3-6 since, checking in at 33-36. The pitching matchup: Yovani Gallardo (3-6 & 6.11 ERA) starts for Seattle and Martin Perez (2-6 & 4.56 ERA) for Texas. Gallardo pitched well this past Monday in Minnesota, earning his first win in nearly a month after yielding three runs over six innings in a 14-3 win. That effort ended a two-start stretch in which he had surrendered 10 runs, 12 hits (including three HRs) and five walks over 10 innings. The vet has only four quality starts in 13 outings in 2017, with Seattle going 5-8. Gallardo allowed just one run on four hits in six innings but settled for a no-decision versus the Rangers on May 5 (Texas won 3-1) He's now 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA in three career starts vs. Texas (teams are 0-3). Perez allowed only two runs on seven hits over five innings last Saturday's in Washington but settled for a no-decision (Rangers won 6-3), as his win-less streak extended to four outings. Perez is 5-3 with a 3.29 ERA over 12 career starts against Seattle (Rangers are 7-5). The pick: Seattle's a poor road team (just 13-23 in 2017) and Perez 3-1 with a 2.57 ERA in six starts against Seattle since the beginning of last year. Also, he's 3-0 with a 2.37 ERA in his five career home starts against Seattle. The trouble with taking Texas here is that the team's bats have been quiet, scoring only 10 runs over the last three games. Make the Under. |
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06-16-17 | Yankees v. A's OVER 8 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: The 38-26 New York Yankees lead the AL East by two games over Boston, while the Oakland A's have sole possession of last place in the AL West at 28-38. However, in the first of this four-game series between the two teams, Khris Davis' two-run, walk-off single in the bottom of the 10th inning gave Oakland an 8-7 victory. All of a sudden, the Yankees have lost three straight and could be without catcher Gary Sanchez (he left the game Thursday night in the top of the ninth inning after stealing a base and hurting his groin) and CF Aaron Hicks, who left in the bottom of the ninth with tightness in his Achilles tendon. Manager Joe Girardi doesn't expect Sanchez or Hicks to miss more than a game or two but New York would sure like "all hands on deck" in trying to stop the team's current "mini-slide." Oakland's Davis leads the A's with 17 HRs and said he hopes momentum from the walk-off win carries over to the second game Friday night. "Just a win like that gives us some momentum for tomorrow and maybe for the whole series," Davis said. The pitching matchup: Luis Severino (5-2 & 2.75 ERA) will get the ball for New York and Sean Manaea (6-3 & 3.67 ERA) for Oakland. Severino hasn't lost any of his last seven outings after he beat Baltimore 16-3 last Saturday, allowing just one run on two hits in seven innings. He has given up more than two runs only once during his unbeaten streak and fewer than two on five occasions. Severino is 3-0 during his last seven starts (Yanks are 5-2). In his lone career start vs. Oakland, he gave up two runs over six innings of a no-decision back on April 21, 2016 (NYY lost / 3.00 ERA). Like Severino, Manaea is riding a winning streak as well. The lefty enters on a five-start winning streak during which he has allowed two ERs or fewer in each outing while registering 32 strikeouts and seven walks over 32 innings (1.97 ERA and .193 opponent batting average). His latest win came on Saturday when he gave up two runs over seven innings at Tampa Bay. He's made two career starts vs. the Yankees, going 1-1 with a 3.28 ERA. The pick: These two starters give us a very low total here and note that the Yankees average more runs than any team in MLB (5.81 per), with MLB's 2nd-best team BA (.277) and its No. 1 OPS (.826). Manaea comes in red-hot but the A's allow 5.42 RPG on the season and own an 'ugly' 5.13 bullpen ERA. Make the Over an 8* play. |
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06-16-17 | Indians v. Twins UNDER 10 | Top | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: The 34-29 Minnesota Twins own a two-game lead over the 32-31 Cleveland Indians in the AL Central and will play the Indians in seven of their next 10 games. The first four games (there will be a Saturday twin-bill) will take place this weekend at Target Field, where Minnesota has gone only 14-20 in 2017. The AL Central has sent Kansas City to the World Series in 2014 and 2015 and Cleveland last year, when the Twins owned MLB's worst record (59-103). However, Minnesota has spent more than half of the 2017 season atop the division and has owned at least a share of the division lead since May 11. The Indians outscored Minnesota 20-7 en route to a three-game sweep at Target Field in mid-April but the Twins took two of three when the teams last met at Progressive Field from May 12-14 (Minnesota is in first because of its 20-9 road mark!). The pitching matchup: Carlos Carrasco (6-3 & 3.36 ERA) gets the starting assignment for the Indians, opposed by the Twins' Nik Turley (0-0 & 9.00 ERA). Carrasco has lost just once since April 28 and is off a solid start the last time out, allowing two runs on seven hits and a walk across 5 1/3 innings in beating the White Sox 4-2 on Sunday. However, Carrasco has not pitched well in his career vs. the Twins, going 2-6 with a 4.74 ERA in 14 games (11 starts / team is 3-8). Turley made his big-league debut against San Francisco on Sunday, settling for a no-decision after giving up four runs on eight hits in four innings. He's a former 50th-round draft pick of the New York Yankees and had toiled for nearly 10 years in the minors before earning his long-awaited promotion after posting a 2.05 ERA and striking out 84 over 52 2/3 innings at two minor-league stops this season. The pick-up: Carrasco's 4-1 (Indians 6-1) in his last seven starts and I expect a good outing. As for Turley, it's "now or never" after his long wait to reach the majors. The results of this weekend and next weekend at Cleveland could set the tone for the rest of the season. Expect a low-scoring game in the first of these seven 'battles.' Make the Under an 8* play. |
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06-12-17 | Cubs v. Mets UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 19 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up:The Cubs won 7-5 on Sunday to avoid a four-game sweep at the hands of the Rockies in Wrigley Field. Chicago now heads back on the road where the Cubs have lost eight straight (0-6 on the team's last road trip) and haven’t won a series away from Wrigley since taking two of three at Pittsburgh from April 24-26. Sunday's win snapped a four-game slide for the Cubs and the etem's four-HR game was a welcome sight. The Mets com inteo this series having won the last three contests of their four-game weekend series in Atlanta, which has allowed them to move into second place in the NL East, although they remain 9 1/2 games behind the division-leading Nats.
The pitching matchup: John Lackey (4-6 & 5.12 ERA) will get the start for Chicago and Jacob deGrom (4-3 & 4.75 ERA) takes the mound for New York. Lackey is part of a struggling Chicago starting staff and is win-less in his last four starts (he's 0-3 and the etam 1-3 with Lackey owning a 6.65 ERA). Lackey has surrendered 16 HRs in 12 starts this season, as the Cubs are 6-6 in his starts, with Lackey owning a 1.36 WHIP and ,270 opponents BA to go along with his poor ERA. However, Lackey has pitched well against the Mets, going 2-0 with a 2.14 ERA in five career meetings (teams are 3-2). DeGrom comes in off back-to-back poor outings (I'm being kind saying "only" poor). He's been rocked for 15 runs on 18 hits in just eight innings over his last two outings (16.88 ERA). DeGrom is also a modest 2-2 with a 4.61 ERA in five career starts against the Cubs (Mets are 2-3). The pick: Yes, Lackey has struggled lately but he's pitched well against the Mets recently. DeGrom is also struggling but he'll face a Chicago team which has scored only 12 runs during its eight-game road slide. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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06-11-17 | Blue Jays v. Mariners UNDER 8 | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 17 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: The Mariners won 4-2 in the opener of their three-game home series with the Blue Jays but Toronto bounced back with a similar 4-2 win last night. The teams play the rubber game of the series on Sunday, as the Mariners cap an 11-game homestand (are 7-3 so far). Seattle opened the season 2-8 but has rebounded lately, winning 10 of 13 to sit just one game under .500 (31-32). The bad news is, Seattle resides in the AL West with the 44-19 Astros, so the Mariners are 13 games out of first place. Toronto knows all about slow starts, as the Blue Jays opened 2-11 in 2017. They had gotten to within one game of .500 on June 4 (28-29) but have now lost three of five since. However, despite finding themselves in last place at 30-32, Toronto is 'only' 7 1/2 games out of first in the AL East. The pitching matchup: J.A. Happ (0-4 & 5.33 ERA) toes the rubber for Toronto and James Paxton (5-0 & 1.69 ERA) gets the nod for Seattle. Coming off a 20-4 season in 2016, Happ has been limited to just five starts in 2017 because of injury and is still looking for his first win of the season. He allowed five runs on four hits and three walks in 5 1/3 innings of a 5-3 loss at Oakland on Monday but it was the second-longest outing of the year. Happ spent part of 2015 with Seattle and is 3-1 with a 4.50 ERA in five career starts against his former team (teams are 3-2). While Happ seeks his first win of 2017, Paxton has yet to suffer a defeat this season in eight starts (he's 5-0 but the team has lost his three no-decisions). Incredibly, Paxton has only allowed runs in three of his eight starts in 2017 and in five home starts this season, is 4-0 (team is 4-1) with a 1.17 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. The pick: Happ earned his milestone 20th victory of the season at Safeco Field last September, so maybe this start will be his "lucky day" (first win of 2017)? Paxton has been "lights out" at home in 2017 and neither team has shown much offense this weekend, scoring six runs apiece after two games. Make the Under an 8* play. |
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06-10-17 | Tigers v. Red Sox UNDER 9 | Top | 3-11 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: The Red Sox lost two of three to the hated Yankees to open the current week but beat the Tigers 5-3 last night to stay three games back of New York in the AL East. Friday's loss was Detroit's second in a row, dropping them to 29-31. The teams continue their three-game series on Saturday, as two former American League Central Division pitching rivals face each other for the sixth time. The pitching matchup: Justin Verlander (4-4 & 4.63 ERA) takes the mound for Detroit and Chris Sale (7-2 & 2.89 ERA) for Boston. The Tigers have won all five previous meetings when Verlander and Sale have squared off, four of them when Sale was with the Chicago White Sox and the other was April 10 of this season with Boston. Verlander was forced out of his last start after two innings due to groin tightness but testing came back negative and he will start with an extra day of rest. Verlander breezed through seven innings against Boston back on April 10, allowing an unearned run on three hits without factoring in the decision. Sale has not lost since April 27 and recovered from a rough first inning at Baltimore on Sunday to strike out nine in six innings while allowing three runs in the win. He leads the majors with 119 strikeouts (has allowed just 17 walks) and is limiting opponents to a .201 batting average (has allowed 61 hits in 84 innings and owns an 0.93 WHIP). Sale struck out 10 in 7 2/3 innings at Detroit back on April 10 but surrendered two runs on five hits to suffer the loss. The pick: Veralnder has faced Boston 17 times in his career and he's just 5-6 (team is 7-8). However, he owns a 2.65 ERA against the Red Sox, including an 0.82 ERA in his last five starts against Boston! Sale has been one of 2017's most dominating pitchers (see above stats) and this one has Under written all over it (10*). |
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06-10-17 | Phillies v. Cardinals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 20 h 60 m | Show |
The set-up: The St. Louis Cards lost three games last weekend at Wrigley and then lost a four-game set at Cincinnati to open this week. They returned home from their 0-7 road trip to open a seven-game homestand on Friday, beginning with the MLB-worst, Philadelphia Phillies. Five of the Cardinals' first six batters in the lineup recorded two hits last night but even so, the Cards barely eked out a 3-2 win over the Phillies, who are now 21-38 and on a three-game slide (Phils are just 9-24 on the road). The win gives the Cards a 27-32 record and with no one playing all that well in the NL Central, find themselves a modest 4 1/2 games out of first (the first-place Brewers visit St. Louis for four games beginning Monday). The pitching matchup: Nick Pivetta (1-2 & 5.18 ERA) gets the start for the Phillies, up against the Cards' Carlos Martinez (4-5 & 3.29 ERA). Pivetta is a rookie who is coming off his first ML victory, winning 11-4 in Atlanta on Monday. He gave up three runs over five innings in his win but note that he has yet to work more than five innings in any of his five 2017 starts. Pivetta will be facing St. Louis for the first time. Martinez has lost two of his last three outings, including Monday's 4-2 setback at Cincinnati in which he allowed four runs in 6 1/3 innings. Martinez has proven to a quality starter these last two seasons, winning 14 and 16 games, respectively. Martinez has made five appearances against the Phillies in his career (3.21 ERA) but just two starts, winning both. The pitching matchup: The Phillies are just 9-24 on the road, where they are averaging only 3.64 RPG (Phils have scored just four runs during their current three-game slide!). Martinez has pitched well at home, winning three straight decisions and going unbeaten in five outings since losing to the Reds on April 9. In seven home starts in 2017, he owns a 2.19 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. The jury is still out on Pivetta but he'll face a St. Louis team which has averaged a modest 3.70 ERA in 30 home games so far in 2017 and a team struggling at the plate recently, having scored only 11 runs over its last five games, overall (that's 2.2 per). Make the Under an 8* play. |
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06-09-17 | Reds v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: The Reds have won four in a row and at 29-30, are just two games out of first place in the tightly-bunched NL Central. Cincinnati completed a four-game sweep of St. Louis with a 5-2 victory Thursday but come to LA to open a three-game series at Dodger Stadium where the Reds have lost six straight contests and five series in a row. The 36-25 Los Angeles Dodgers own the second-most home victories (22) in MLB, despite kicking off a six-game homestand Monday-Wednesday by losing two of three to Washington. Good news is on the way though, as third baseman Justin Turner (.379) could return Friday after missing 19 games because of a hamstring injury The pitching matchup: Amir Garrett (3-4 & 7.17 ERA) will start for the Reds and Rich Hill (2-2 & 4.15 ERA) gets the call for the Dodgers. Garrett all was crushed his last time out, allowing nine runs (eight earned) on seven hits (three HRs)) and three walks in 2 2/3 innings of a 13-8 loss to Atlanta on Sunday. "I was trying to do too much with the changeup," he told reporters. "It is easy to fix. I need to get in the bullpen and work on it." It's nice to know that he is confident but since winning his first two career starts, the rookie is 1-4 with a 9.27 ERA in his last seven outings (Reds are 2-5). Hill has been limited to sis starts in 2017, mostly because of lingering blister issues (that plagued him last year, as well). He received a no-decision after yielding three runs (two earned), three hits and four walks while striking out five in four innings of Los Angeles' 10-8 victory in Milwaukee last Saturday. He was 3-2 with a 1.83 ERA in six outings with the Dodgers in 2016 but has not pitched into the sixth inning this season. Hill is 3-2 with a 4.05 ERA in nine games (seven starts / teams are 4-3) versus Cincinnati. The pick: With Garrett's recent woes, the initial thought would be over. However, the Dodgers have managed just five runs in their last four games. Also, note that when healthy (Hill says he's in good shape), he's pitched well (note his 1.83 ERA in six starts for LA in 2016). Make the Under a 10* play. |
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06-09-17 | Warriors v. Cavs UNDER 228.5 | Top | 116-137 | Loss | -103 | 38 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: How did we get here? K.D. left OKC to sign with the Warriors during the off-season and Golden State opened the 2016-17 season as prohibitive favorites with many calling them "the best team ever assembled." However, in the team's season opener, the Spurs visited Oakland and spanked the Warriors, 129-100! That was only a minor blip, as the Warriors entered the 60th game of their season back on Feb. 28th, 50-9. However, in that game at Washington, K.D. was hurt (hyperextended his knee). Golden State lost that game and four of its next six, including three in a row. The team's fifth loss in seven games came at San Antonio,107-85, as Kerr rested Curry, Thompson and Green. Was the "super team" in trouble? Well, not so much! K.D. did not return until three games were left in the regular season but the Warriors ended the year winning 15 of 16 games, entering the postseason. While Durant had another minor injury scare in the playoffs (he missed two games), Golden State has won 15 straight playoff contests, going 11-4 ATS and leaving waste to the defending champs in The Finals, so far. The Cavaliers took their best shot and still fell short in Game 3 and now need to win four games in a row to pull off a historic comeback. The Warriors aren't just looking for revenge from last year's come-from-ahead loss to the Cavs (Golden St. led 3-1 before Cleveland took the last three games) or a second championship in three years, but they can become the first team in NBA history to navigate the playoffs without a loss (16-0, adding an extra Fo' to Moses Malone's famous Fo', Fo' Fo' prediction back in 1983). Golden State: Durant scored 14 of his 31 points in the fourth quarter in Game 3 and is averaging 34.0-10.0-6.0 against the Cavs. "He took over," Golden State head coach Steve Kerr told reporters of Durant's Game 3 performance. "You can tell he knows this is his moment. He's been an amazing player in this league for a long time. He senses this is his time, his moment, his team." Durant is the clear favorite for Finals MVP but he isn't the only Warriors player enjoying a superb Finals. Curry, less than 100 percent healthy last year, has put the pain of last year's Finals loss in the rear-view mirror by averaging 28.7 points, 9.7 rebounds and 9.0 assists against the Cavs. Cleveland: LBJ has averaged 32.0 PPG (on 55.4 percent shooting) against the Warriors, as well as 12.3 rebounds and 10.3 assists. After a 38-point Game 3, Kyrie is averaging 27.0 PPG in the series and despite an awful shooting performance on Wednesday (1 of 9), Love has averaged 17.0 & 13.7 in the series. However, the rest of Cleveland's players have been woefully inept. Tristan Thompson, in particular, has been brutal, failing to score a single point in Games 1 and 3, while pulling down a total of just 11 rebounds in three games (in comparison, the 6-3 Curry has 29 rebounds!). The pick: Golden State's domination has inflated this line to where the Warriors are approaching being a 'TD' favorite at Cleveland (note: books put lines on all individual games prior to the series and had Cleveland at minus-two in Game 4!). I'm a perfect 3-0 in this series so far (Warriors in Game 1, Over in Game 2 and Warriors in the first-half of Game 4) and will play the Under as a 10* play here. The over/under number is headed towards 230, which I believe may be 'two TDs' higher than the final in this contest. |
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06-08-17 | Predators v. Penguins UNDER 5.5 | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -127 | 48 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: The Nashville Predators have been the better team in the Cup Final but the series is tied at two-all with Game 5 looming tonight in Pittsburgh. The Penguins' high-octane offense scored just one goal each in Games 3 and 4, while the Predators were able to score five and four goals against a suddenly shaky Murray. "We're confident our team will respond the right way, as they always have all season long," Pittsburgh head coach Mike Sullivan said. "I believe we have great leadership in our room. We've got good players. They understand the circumstances and we've felt as though, with each game that we've played here, our team game is getting stronger." The Predators will try to continue the play that's seen them outplay the Penguins in all four games. "Two-out-of-three now. It's pedal down. We're ready," Nashville headcoach Peter Laviolette said.
Nashville: Goaltender Pekka Rinne silenced critics by stopping 50 of 52 shots in his last two games to improve to 9-1 at home in the postseason, but his play in Pittsburgh leaves plenty to be desired. He allowed eight goal on just 36 shots in the first two games (.778 save percentage) and has lost all five of his career decisions in Pittsburgh. 24-year-old rookie Frederick Gaudreau had one assist in nine regular-season NHL games in his career. but continued his brilliant series by scoring the winning goal in both Games 3 and 4. |
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06-08-17 | Orioles v. Nationals UNDER 9.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: The Battle of the Beltway gets set for a one-game showdown on Thursday, as the Orioles and Nats meet in Washington, making up a May 11th game which was rained out. The Orioles won both games in Baltimore back on May 8 and 9, before the Nats won May 10th in Washington, before getting rained out. The Nats are returning home off a very successful 7-2 nine-game road trip and at 37-21, own the NL's best record and an 11 1/2 game lead in the NL East. The Orioles are 31-26 and sit in third place in the AL East, 2 1/2 games back of the first-place Yankees. Baltimore is 21-10 at home but just 10-16 on the road. The pitching matchup: Alec Asher (2-3 & 3.62 ERA) will start for Baltimore, opposed by Washington's Joe Ross (2-2 & 7.34 ERA). Asher made his fourth start and 13th appearance of the season on Friday against Boston and breezed through 6 1/3 innings while allowing two runs and three hits without issuing a walk. That was a a HUGE improvement from his previous start, when he allowed six runs on six hits in just two innings at Houston on May 28th. Asher spent 2015 and 2016 in the NL East with the Phillies and is 1-1 with a 3.27 ERA in two career starts against Washington. Ross is in danger of losing his rotation spot after getting lit up for a total of 12 runs (11 earned) on 19 hits in seven innings over his last two starts. He had returned to the rotation on May 23 and beat Seattle 10-1, allowing just and one run in eight innings but he's been brutal in his last two outings. Ross has never started against Baltimore, making a lone relief appearance against the Orioles in his career (1 /3 hitless innings). The pick: The Nats haven't bested the Orioles in a Beltway Series since going 4-2 back in 2007. The 2017 edition stands at 2-1 Baltimore, heading into this game. Washington had to fly back from LA last night, after a day game with the Dodgers, and were scheduled to have a day off. However, they must make up that May 11 rain out. Neither pitcher is a front of the rotation starter but this game still 'smells' like an Under (10*s). |
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06-07-17 | Nationals v. Dodgers UNDER 6.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: The Washington Nationals beat the Dodgers 2-1 last night behind Scherzer's dominating pitching (7 IP/ 3 hits / 1 unearned run / 14Ks) and have now gone 7-1 on their current road trip. That trip concludes with an afternoon game at Dodger Stadium on Wednesday, as the Nats look to sweep the Dodgers (won 4-2 on Monday). The Dodgers were shut out 3-0 at Milwaukee on Sunday and have now been held to just three runs by the Nats these last two games. LA had been 21-8 at home as the new week began but are now 21-10 on their home field and look to not only avoid a three-game home sweep but break out a a slide which has seen them lose five of their last seven. |
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06-06-17 | Mets v. Rangers UNDER 9.5 | Top | 8-10 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: The Rangers had a 10-game winning streak from May 9 through May 19 but that's been long forgotten. The Rangers spent their weekend by losing a three-game series to the major league-leading Astros and open the new week as losers of four straight and 10 of their last 12, leaving them 15 1/2 games behind Houston at 26-31. The New York Mets visit the Rangers for the start of a two-game interleague series on Tuesday and are just 24-31 themselves, after losing four of their last five. However, the Mets do find themselves a little closer to first place in the NL East, 11 1/2 games back of the Nationals. |
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06-05-17 | Giants v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: The 30-27 Milwaukee Brewers still hold down the top spot in the NL Central but are now just one game up on the Cubs, who swept a three-game home series against the Cards over the weekend. Eric Thames was mired in a 4-for-33 slump and with just one HR since May 9 and was out of the starting lineup in Saturday's loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers but he hit his 15th homer to help the Brewers salvage the finale of the three-game set with a 3-0 Sunday win. The Milwaukee Brewers wrap up a seven-game homestand this week, beginning with the first of four games with the Giants on Monday. San Francisco lost 9-7 at Philadelphia on Sunday, the team's ninth loss in its last 12 games, leaving the Giants a woeful 23-35 here in 2017. |
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06-04-17 | Cavs v. Warriors OVER 220.5 | Top | 113-132 | Win | 100 | 45 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: The Golden State Warriors are now 13-0 in this year's postseason (9-4 ATS), after a dominating 113-91 victory over the Cavs in Game 1 this past Thursday. Kevin Durant is making his first Finals appearance since losing to LBJ and the Miami Heat as a member of the OKC Thunder in 2012, and he certainly "came to play," scoring 38 points while adding eight rebounds and eight assists (zero TOs!). Curry, a huge disappointment in last year's Finals but the Warriors' best player during the team's playoff run so far, added 28 points (shot 6 of 11 on threes) plus had 10 assists. LBJ had 28-15-8 but it was a 'quiet' game for him, as Golden State's defense held the Cavs to 34.9% shooting and forced 20 TOs (LBJ had eight)! The Cavs came in averaging just a tick over 116 points in the 2017 playoffs but were held to just 91 points! Cleveland: Kyrie had 24 poinst and Love another double-double (15 & 21) but Thompson and Smith (Cleveland's other two starters), combined for only three points (all by Smith). Cleveland added talent during the regular season in an effort to get LBJ the help he asked for but PG Deron Williams, SG Kyle Korver and PF Derrick Williams combined to go scoreless on 0-of-9 shooting off the bench in Game 1. Cleveland head coach Tyronn Lue noted that it's been a while since his team had seen the Warriors and that experience is bound to help. "Just getting a chance to see how they play, the style of play, how fast they play, you can't really simulate that in practices," Lue said. "You got to really get out here and get a chance to do it firsthand. When we experience that, we're able to adjust, we're a lot better." Golden State: Adjusting is fine but the Cavs have to be worried that the Warriors didn't play their best, either (other than K.D. and Curry). Green and Thompson combined to shoot an awful 6 of 28, as Golden State shot 42.4 percent for the game, including 12 of 33 on threes. What the Warriors did do well is take care of the ball (just four turnovers) and grab 14 offensive rebounds. Green (3-of-12) and Thompson (3-of-16) shot horribly but both are outstanding defenders. The pick: The talk has turned into "Can the Warriors become the first team to go through the postseason undefeated." However, while favorites are now 18-9 ATS in Game 1 of the NBA Finals since 1991 (current 12-1 ATS run since 2005!), it should be noted that favorites are just 9-16-1 ATS in that same span, including entering tonight's Game 2 on a 2-7 ATS run. Yes, I expect a much better effort from the Cavs, as the team's 91-point effort was the first time the Cavs had been held to under 108 points in 14 postseason games in 2017. However, I also expect the Warriors to shoot better overall, especially Green and Thompson. The over/under number is down a few points from Game1 and I believe the best value is on the Over, which is a 10* play. |
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06-04-17 | Cardinals v. Cubs OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cubs returned home off an 0-6 West Coast trip, getting swept by the Dodgers and then the sad-sack Padres. Waiting for them were the hated Cardinals and the "Friendly Confines" have been good to the Cubs so far this weekend, with a 3-2 win on Friday and a 5-3 win on Saturday. The Chicago Cubs are just 27-27 in 2017, in large part because several of their young stars have failed to live up their expectations. They now go for a three-game sweep of the 26-27 Cards Sunday night on ESPN. The pitching matchup: Michael Wacha (2-3 & 3.99 ERA) takes the mound tonight for St. Louis and Kyle Hendricks (4-3 & 3.75 ERA). Wacha is win-less in his last six starts (he's 0-2 and the Cards 1-5), He hasn’t made it through five innings in either of his last two outings, allowing10 runs (nine earned) in just seven innings. Wacha has not pitched well vs. the Cubs in his career, going 4-5 with a 5.82 ERA in 11 starts (team is 5-6). Hendricks retired the first 10 batters he faced Monday at San Diego but a grand slam from Hunter Renfroe ultimately ruined his day. After a slow start in 2017, he has five quality starts in his last seven outings and he owns a 1.96 ERA in his last three home starts. Hendricks is 1-2 with a 3.78 ERA in eight starts against the Cardinals (Cubs are 4-4). The pick: The Cardinals have not scored more than four runs in any of their last 10 games (3-7 record) and the Cubs surely aren't ripping the cover off the ball, either. Chicago was held to nine runs in its 0-6 West Coast trip and has a modest eight runs the first two games of this series (that's 2.13 RPG over the team's last eight games. However, the over is 7-2 in Wacha's nine starts in 2017 and in his 11 career starts against the Cubs, the ob\ver is a remarkable 10-1. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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06-04-17 | Indians v. Royals UNDER 9 | Top | 8-0 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: The 24-30 Kansas City Royals are tied for last place in the AL Central with the Chicago White Sox and are just one-half game ahead of 24-31 Oakland, for the worst record in the AL. However, they have pretty much owned the defending AL champs (Cleveland) these last eight days. The Royals took two of three at Cleveland last weekend and rolled over the Indians in the first two games of this current series by a combined score of 16-5. "We have to get a little rest and come back and play a lot better because that wasn't close to good enough," Cleveland manager Terry Francona told reporters after Saturday's 12-5 setback. The good news for Cleveland is that no team is playing all that well in the AL Central, so despite the Indians' 28-26 record, they are just one game out of first place. The pitching matchup: Trevor Bauer (5-4 & 6.00 ERA) gets the ball for Cleveland and Eric Skoglund (1-0 & 0.00 ERA) makes his second ML start for Kansas City. Bauer's season numbers are not good but he is 3-0 in his last four starts (Indians are 3-1), posting a 4.13 ERA but he also owns a 36-4 KW ratio in that span. Bauer is 1-2 with a 3.56 ERA in seven career starts against the Royals (team is 4-3). Skoglund made his major-league debut against Detroit on Tuesday and scattered two hits and one walk over 6 1/3 scoreless innings while striking out five. He was 2-3 with a 4.53 ERA in eight starts at Triple-A before being recalled and owns a 3.74 ERA in 60 career minor-league games. |
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06-02-17 | Twins v. Angels OVER 8.5 | Top | 11-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: The Twins came to Anaheim on a four-game losing streak in which they had allowed a whopping 48 runs (40 in a three-game home series against the Astros) and shut down the Angels 4-2, giving Minnesota MLB's best road record at 15-5 (plus-$1222 vs. the moneyline). Albert Pujols failed in his attempt to become the ninth player in major-league history to reach 600 HRs, as the Angels fell to 2-2 on their seven-game homestand,. Playing in a division with the Astros (owners of MLB's best record at 38-16), the 28-29 Angels find themselves 11 1/2 games out of first place. Minnesota began its 10-game road trip with a win and despite a modest 27-23 record, are in a virtual tie with the Indians for first place in the AL Central. |
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06-02-17 | Pirates v. Mets UNDER 8 | Top | 12-7 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: The Mets had won three straight before dropping the final two games of their four-game set against Milwaukee this week. They host Pittsburgh for a three-game weekend series with Pirates starting tonight, after taking two of three against the Pirates last weekend at Pittsburgh. Both teams sit six games below .500 entering this series (Pirates are 24-30 and the Mets 23-29). The Mets may be in second place in the NL East but they are 10 games behind the Nats, while even though the Pirates are in last in the NL Central, they are just five games out of first. |
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06-01-17 | Dodgers v. Cardinals UNDER 8 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cards have found the going pretty tough in what's been a 13-game stretch against NL West teams the Dodgers, Giants and Rockies. St. Louis did eke out a 2-1 win at home over the Dodgers last night but the victory represents only the Cards' fourth win in 12 games against this NL West trio. Meanwhile, Wednesday's loss halted the Dodgers' six-game winning streak but the team ended May with a 19-9 mark, the third-best record for that month during the club's tenure in Los Angeles (free history lesson: The Dodgers moved from Brooklyn to LA to begin the 1958 season). The pitching matchup: Brandon McCarthy (5-1 & 3.28 ERA) will start for LA and Adam Wainwright (5-3, 4.20 ERA) for St. Louis. McCarthy has has put together excellent back-to-back outings, allowing just one run on five hits over 12 innings in the two victories (0.75 ERA). He blanked the Chicago Cubs on two hits over six innings in his last start and has given up two or fewer runs in six of his eight. McCarthy has posted a 4.15 ERA in three career no-decisions against St. Louis (teams are 1-2). Wainwright has won three straight starts,allowing only one run on 12 hits over 20 1/3 innings during the stretch (0.44 ERA!). He's put his poor start in 2017 behind him and shut down Colorado at Coors Field in his last outing, allowing just three hits over seven scoreless innings. Wainwright's seen a lot of the Dodgers with 14 career appearances (11 starts), going 4-5 with a 2.90 ERA. The pick: As noted above, both McCarthy and Wainwright enter in excellent form. The Dodgers have been dominant at home (21-8 while averaging about 5 1/2 runs) but mediocre on the road at just 12-13, while averaging 4.44 RPG. The Cards have also struggled at home (just 13-15, averaging 3.79 RPG) and during their current 4-8 run against NL West opponents, have averaged a woeful 3.17 RPG. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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05-31-17 | Predators v. Penguins UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: Despite getting out-played for most of the game, Pittsburgh built a 3-0 lead first period lead. However, after going more than 37 minutes without registering a shot on goal, the defending champs found themselves in a 3-3 tie. If it were a boxing match, the referee may have stopped the fight, but Jake Guentzel delivered the late tie-breaking tally (ending an eight-game goal-less drought) and an empty-netter made the final 5-3. "It's not textbook," said Pittsburgh captain Sidney Crosby after the Penguins finished with the fewest shots on goal (12) by a winning team in Stanley Cup history. "We've got some things we need to improve on." Crosby is bidding to become the first player to win the goal-scoring title and a Stanley Cup in the same season since Wayne Gretzky (1986-87). The Predators are now trailing in a series for the first time this postseason, which is saying something for a team that was the No. 8 seed in the West (worst record of all 16 playoff teams). Nashville will now try to avoid losing back-to-back games for the first time this postseason before the best-of-seven series shifts to Nashville. "I thought our guys played great," Predators coach Peter Laviolette said after Monday's game. "We hate the score, we hate the result, but we'll move forward. Right now we are 100 percent in a result-orientated business. I would rather be in their shoes. I would rather have that Game 1 win because you need four out of seven. Now it's down to six to try to grab the four." Nashville: Pekka Rinne entered the Cup Finals with a 1.70 GAA and .941 save percentage but allowed four goals on just 11 shots (one was an "own goal"). He's eager to atone. "That's the best part in the playoffs," Rinne said. "You always get another opportunity, and that's going to happen on Wednesday, so I'm looking forward to that."Nashville can be happy that the team didn't stray far from its blueprint and all believe that they can bounce back to gain a split in Pittsburgh before the series shifts to Bridgestone Arena in Nashville. Pittsburgh: Penguins goalie Mark Murray was not at his best in Game 1, either. He entered the Finals with a 1.35 GAA and .946 save percentage in five games (four starts) but allowed three goals on 26 shots (.885 SP). Pittsburgh has to be thrilled to win a game it should have lost plus it also received the secondary scoring it had been missing. Conor Sheary, a 23-goal scorer during the regular season, notched his first of the playoffs and Guentzel registered his 10th of the postseason to lead all goal scorers (as noted, he ended an eight-game scoring drought!). The pick: Both teams have positives to take away from in Game 1 and it's my belief that both goaltenders will bring their "A games" here in Game 2, which makes the Under a 10* play. |
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05-31-17 | Phillies v. Marlins UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-10 | Loss | -125 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: The Marlins are happy to see the month of May end, as even though Miami has won four of its last five (and are on the verge of a three-game sweep of the Phils), the Marlins check in at 9-18 overall in May. Miami won 7-2 last night (third straight win) and has now scored at least seven runs for the third time during its 4-1 stretch. The Marlins go for a three-game sweep of the Phils, which would be their first sweep over their NL East rival since June 29-July 1, 2012. Giving them a good chance to complete that sweep is the fact that the Phillies have lost 24 of their last 30 and own MLB's worst overall record at 17-33 (also own MLB's worst moneyline mark at minus-$1388). The pitching matchup:Aaron Nola (2-2 & 4.34 ERA) will take the mound for Philadelphia and Dan Straily (3-3 & 3.83 ERA) for Miami. Nola is off his worst outing of the season in Friday's 5-2 loss to Cincinnati, surrendering a pair of HRs among the six hits and five runs he gave up in six innings. Nola is 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA over three career starts against Miami (team is 2-1). Straily extended his unbeaten streak to four starts (he's 2-0 but the team just 2-2) with Friday's 8-5 win over the LA Angels. He ranks second in the majors in batting average against at .176, after allowing three runs on six hits across 5 1/3 innings in beating LA. Straily threw five scoreless innings against Philadelphia last year to win his only career start versus the Phillies (1-0 & 0.00 ERA). The pick: Philadelphia has scratched out only six hits through two games in Miami and has now scored just two runs or fewer eight times in its last 10 contests. No reason to think that the Philly bats will wake up here vs. Straily, who been dominant at home with a 2.45 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and .150 batting average against. Straily's counterpart (Nola) has been much better away from Citizens Bank Park (with a 3.18 ERA) than at home (6.00 ERA) plus was very sharp against Miami last year despite picking up two no-decisions, permitting just three runs over 12 innings while holding the Marlins to a .190 average. The Under is 10* play. |
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05-30-17 | Cubs v. Padres OVER 8 | Top | 2-6 | Push | 0 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: No team is "pulling way" in the NL Central, so Chicago's modest 25-25 record has them just 1 1/2 games out of first place. However, the team's struggling offense is cause for concern. The Padres won 5-2 win in Monday’s series opener, sending Chicago to its fourth straight loss to begin a six-game West Coast trip. The Cubs are 1-for-24 with runners in scoring position during their four-game skid and they’ve left 31 men on base. The Cubs are batting .238 as a team (25rth) and heir 65 HRs rank 13th. The win was San Diego's second in a row but at 20-33, the Padres own a better record than only the 17-32 Phillies among all MLB teams. The pitching matchup: Eddie Butler (2-0 & 1.93 ERA) gets the nod for the Cubs and Dinelson Lamet (1-0 & 1.80 ERA) for the Padres. Butler is making a strong bid to remain in the rotation, as he has allowed just three runs over 14 innings in his first three outings with the Cubs. He had some control problems in his second start (five walks in three innings), but he rebounded Thursday to hold San Francisco to one run on four hits over five innings and earn his second win. Butler started with Colorado in 2014 and is in his first season with the Cubs. He had made 36 appearances (28 starts) with the Rockies from 2014-16, going 6-16 with a 6.50 ERA. He is 0-2 with a 5.68 ERA in three games (two starts) against the Padres, all at Petco Park. Lamet was impressive in his major-league debut Thursday in New York against the Mets, striking out eight and allowing one run and three hits over five innings (a solo HR accounted for the only run he allowed). Lamet has averaged more than a strikeout per inning throughout his minor-league career and had struck 50 over 39 innings over eight starts at Triple-A El Paso before being called up. The pick: Butler has pitched very well but his brief ML history says it's unlikely to last. As for Lamet, this is just his second career start. The Cubs are overdue to begin hitting and there is every reason to think that Butler's "good outings" are about to end. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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05-29-17 | Predators v. Penguins UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -135 | 57 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: The Penguins are defending champs and this year's team has advanced to back-to-back Cup Finals for the first time since Pittsburgh did so themselves back in 2008 and 2009 (won Finals that season). Pittsburgh now has a chance to win back-to-back Stanley Cup titles for the first time since the Red Wings did so in 1997 and 1998. The Penguins will be looking for their fifth Stanley Cup title overall while in stark contrast, the Nashville Predators are competing in the Cup Finals for the first time in franchise history. Also of interest is that once again, the Stanley Cup winner will be a team representing an American city, The last Canadian-based team to win The Cup was Montreal back in 1993. The Cup has been handed out 89 times since 1927 but for the first time ever, two American-born head coaches will square off in the Finals. Either Peter Laviolette (Nashville) or Mike Sullivan (Pittsburgh) will win The Cup, making it a seventh time it will be won by an American head coach. That said, both already own a Cup win, Laviolette with the Carolina Hurricanes back in 2006 and Sullivan with the Penguins last season. Pittsburgh's 111 points gave them the NHL's second-best record while the Predators were the No. 8 seed in the West, as well as the 16th-seed, overall. Nashville: Losing star center Ryan Johansen to a season-ending hip injury after Game 4 against Anaheim certainly hurt Nashville's high-powered top line. However, Colton Sissons stepped in for Johansen and supplied a hat trick in the series clincher against the Ducks. Key for Nashville's offense has been the play of Filip Forsberg, a 31-goal scorer during the regular season who scored five times against Anaheim and is riding a seven-game point streak. It's also good news that No. 2 center Mike Fisher appears poised to return from injury, However, Nashville's strength is its blue line and its top four defensemen, Roman Josi, Ryan Ellis, P.K. Subban and Mattias Ekholm. That quartet has combined for 39 points in 16 playoff games plus has provided steady support in front of 34-year-old goalie Pekka Rinne. He is 12-4 with a 1.70 goals-against average and a .941 save percentage in the postseason, so far. Pittsburgh: Pittsburgh features the top three scorers in the postseason in Evgeni Malkin (24 points), captain Sidney Crosby (20) and Phil Kessel (19). Crosby and Malkin are two of the greatest players of all time and each owns a Conn Smythe Trophy. The depleted Penguins defense lost All-Star Kris Letang to injury before the playoffs even started and other defenseman have been in and out of the lineup during the playoffs. However, Matt Murray, who backstopped Pittsburgh to a championship a year ago following a late-season injury to Marc-Andre Fleury, reclaimed the starting job from Fleury in the Ottawa series and went 3-1 with six goals allowed in his four starts. His numbers are Rinne-like in the 2017 playoffs:1.35 GAA and .946 save percentage. The pick: This may be a No. 2 overall seed against a No. 16 seed but this figures to be a fantastic, fast-paced series highlighting players with world-class speed and skill. As for Game 1, the goaltenders will be the stars. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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05-29-17 | Dodgers v. Cardinals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
The pick: Leake has been little more than a journeyman in his career but is sure pitching well in 2017 and I'm starting to believe it just may be "one of those seasons" for him. To go along with his 1.91 ERA, he owns an 0.93 WHIP, 42-10 KW ratio and opponents are batting only .210 against him. The Dodgers are 21-8 at home (averaging more than 5 1/2 runs) but just 10-12 on the road, where they are averaging 4.36 RPG. As for the Cards, they have not played well at home, going only 12-12 while averaging 3.96 RPG. The Under is an 8* play. |
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05-27-17 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: The Arizona Diamondbacks lost 93 games in 2016 but enter this weekend as MLB's hottest team, as Friday night's 4-2 win in 10 innings at Milwaukee gives them 10 wins in their last 11 games. Arizona is now 31-19 overall, just one game back of first-place Colorado in the NL West after last night's dramatic win. The loss had to be particularly painful for the Brewers, who lost a 2-1 lead with two outs in the ninth inning on a HR by Arizona catcher Chris Iannetta, then lost in the 10th. Milwaukee was shut out 4-0 on Thursday by Arizona and has now managed just two runs on 11 hits in losing the first two games of this series. The Brewers, who placed Ryan Braun (calf) on the 10-day disabled list Friday, enter Saturday's contest on a season-high five-game slide, leaving them 25-23 but still just a half-game back of the first-place Cubs in the NL Central. The pitching matchup: Zack Greinke (6-2 & 2.82 ERA) takes the mound for Arizona and will be opposed by Milwaukee's Chase Anderson (2-1 & 4.25 ERA). Greinke has won four straight starts (2.37 ERA) and Miller Park holds a special place in his heart. He's won 16 of 18 career decisions at Miller Park, including an 11-0 mark in 2011 while a member of the Brewers. However, while he has not allowed an earned run in his last 12 2/3 innings against Milwaukee, he's just 1-2 with a 3.57 ERA over four career starts against the Brewers (teams are 1-3). Anderson has completed as many as five innings just once in four May starts, giving up six runs in four innings last Sunday at Wrigley Field in Chicago, while serving up three HRs to the Cubs in a 13-6 loss. The one-time D'back is 1-0 with a 3.27 ERA in two starts against his former team (1-1). The pick: Anderson posted a 1.12 ERA through his first four outings of 2017 but he's got a 7.30 mark in his last five starts, after allowing a season-high six ERs in his last outing Sunday against the Cubs. He faces an Arizona lineup that's averaging 5.73 RPG in winning 10 of 11, so it will be tough to turn around his woes in this one. But Greinke comes in red-hot plus he 'loves' Miller Park. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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05-25-17 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers UNDER 9 | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: Seemingly, the Diamondbacks have put last year's 93-loss season behind them, as red-hot Arizona looks for its ninth victory in 10 games while attempting to hand Milwaukee its first four-game losing streak of the season. Arizona opens a four-game series in Milwaukee on Thursday on the heels of sweeping a three-game home series over the White Sox with Wednesday's 8-6 win. The D'backs own MLB's best home record (21-8) but aare more modest 8-11 on the road. Meanwhile, the Brewers have lost three in a row, after having won 10 of 12 contests before their slide. Milwaukee's 25-21 record has them a half-game up on both the Cards and Cubs in the NL Central but the Brewers are under .500 (12-13) here at Miller Park. |
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05-23-17 | Cardinals v. Dodgers OVER 7 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: The 22-19 St. Louis Cardinals and the 26-19 Los Angeles Dodgers were both off on Monday and get together at Dodger Stadium Tuesday night for the opener of a three-game series. The Cardinals snapped a four-game losing slide with an 8-3 victory over San Francisco on Sunday. The Dodgers won 6-3 at home over the Marlins on Sunday and have followed a three-game skid of their own by winning four of their last five. St. Louis opens a six-game road trip with this game, while the Dodgers continue a 10-game homestand (the Cubs visit over the weekend). The pitching matchup: Lance Lynn (4-2 & 2.78 ERA) goes for the Cards and Clayton Kershaw (7-2 & 2.15 ERA) for the Dodgers. Lynn gave up two HRs for the second straight start last Tuesday and took his first loss since April 11 with a 6-3 setback versus Boston. However, he did work at least six innings for the fifth time in his last six outings, with St. Louis winning all but one of those starts. Lynn owns a 4-1 career mark in eight starts versus the Dodgers (4.04 ERA / Cards are 5-3). Kershaw has won three CY Young awards and is off a brilliant performance in his last outing on Wednesday, scattering three hits over seven scoreless innings in a 6-1 victory at San Francisco. Kershaw has fared well against St. Louis in the regular season, posting a 6-5 career mark with a 3.18 ERA in 15 outings, as opposed to an 0-4 record in the playoffs. The pick: The over/under number is always tantalizingly low in a Kershaw start and note that Lynn has allowed two HRs in each of his last two outings. He'll face an LA lineup which has averaged 5.74 RPG in going 16-7 at home and Kershaw could easily have his hands full with a St. Louis team which is 10-6 on the road (averaging 5.44 RPG), after erupting for 43 runs en route to back-to-back three-game sweeps at Atlanta and Miami from May 5-10. Make the Over an 8* play. |
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05-23-17 | Celtics v. Cavs OVER 216 | Top | 99-112 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: With no Issiah Thomas and facing a 21-point third quarter deficit, the Celtics clawed their way back against the Cavs in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference finals on Sunday in Cleveland. Incredibly, LBJ was held without a point over the game's final 16 1/2 minutes and when Avery Bradley's three-point bounced on the rim and fell in with 0.1 seconds left in the game, Boston had an improbable 111-108 victory. The top-seeded Celtics broke the Cavaliers' record-tying 13-game postseason winning streak and limited red-hot forward LeBron James to 11 points, his fourth-lowest output in 210 career playoff games. According to cleveland.com, LBJ's teams are 1-10 in the playoffs when he scores 15 or fewer points. However, LBJ is 20-0 in playoff series in which his team won the first two games,and the Cavaliers are 14-0 in those sets. James hasn't lost a playoff series against an Eastern team since the second round in 2010, when the Celtics knocked out Cleveland in six games. Boston: "We were playing way better. I don't know how to phrase it other than that - we were playing way better," Boston head coach Brad Stevens told reporters of the difference between Sunday's win and a 44-point loss in Game 2. "We were getting good shots on offense and playing with great purpose, and on defense I thought we were much better than the score indicated. I think that when you play better, you feel better." Marcus Smart was a non-factor by averaging five points on 2-of-11 shooting over the first two games but he was 7-of-10 from three-point range while producing 27 points and seven assists in Game 3. Kelly Olynyk, a hero for Boston in Game 7 against Washington with 26 points, had scored just two points (on 1 of 8 shooting) in the first two games but had 15 points on Sunday. Avery Bradley scored 20 points and made the game-winning three-pointer. Cleveland: "I had a tough game, period," James told reporters. "I didn't have it. That's all I've got to say about my performance." LBJ entered Sunday on a tear with eight consecutive 30-point efforts, averaging 34.3 points before he basically disappeared in the second half by missing eight of nine shots and finishing 4-of-13 from the floor. "No blame," head coach Tyronn Lue told reporters. "We're all to blame. We lost; it happens. For a guy who played great for five straight months, he's got to have a bad game sooner or later. He's human. He didn't shoot the ball well. It wasn't his ordinary game." The Cavs have to be thrilled about Kevin Love's play, as the PF has three straight double-doubles, averaging 27.0 & 11.3 in the series while making 17-of-31 three-point attempts.Kyrie had a poor Game 1 but has averaged 26.0 PPG the last two on 18 of 26 shooting. Center Tristan Thompson is averaging 15.0 & 8.0 in the series. The pick: Boston trailed 2-0 in the first round against Chicago, but won the next four. However, the Cavs AIN'T the Bulls! No one expects Smart and Olynyk to repeat their Game 3 performances and EVERYONE expects LBJ will bounce back. Still, Cleveland could sure use a better (any?) effort from its bench, after Cleveland reserves scored only nine points in Game 3. The pointspread is understandably high but the over/under number is well within reach. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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05-23-17 | Tigers v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: The Astros got swept in a three-game home series by the Indians over the weekend but still opened the new week with MLB's best record. Four Houston pitchers combined on a one-hitter in Monday's 1-0 victory over the Tigers, as Houston became the first team in the majors to reach 30 wins while also establishing the best 45-game start (30-15) in franchise history. Detroit has now dropped five of its last eight games to fall under .500 at 21-22. Monday's setback occurred in the opener of the team's 11-game road trip. The pitching matchup: Jordan Zimmermann (4-2 & 6.25 ERA) gets the nod for Detroit and Lance McCullers (4-1 & 2.65). Zimmermann is hoping to begin a turnaround to a season in which he has given up four or more runs in six of his first eight starts. Maybe it will start against Houston, as Zimmermann is 2-2 with a 2.93 ERA in five career starts against the Astros (teams are 3-2). McCullers scattered three hits over six scoreless innings to defeat 3-0 Miami in his last outing (Wednesday). That makes him the the first Houston pitcher to work at least six innings without allowing an earned run in three consecutive starts since Roy Oswalt did it back in 2008. McCullers won his lone career start against Detroit in 2015, when he gave up two runs on six hits in six innings (3.00 ERA).
The pick: McCullers is off to an excellent start in 2017 and here at home, owns a 2.08 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in four starts (he's 2-0 and the team 4-0!). As for Zimmermann, he last faced Houston on April 30, 2014, allowing seven hits and one walk with seven strikeouts over 6 1/3 shutout innings. He's pitched reasonably well at Minute Maid Park with a 3.42 ERA and 29 strikeouts in 23 2/3 innings over four career starts there. Make the Under an 8* play. |
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05-22-17 | Warriors v. Spurs OVER 216 | Top | 129-115 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
he set-up: The Warriors are poised to close out the Spurs and clinch a third straight trip to the NBA Finals as the two teams meet tonight in San Antonio. As expected, the Spurs put up a much better effort at home in Game 3 than they managed in Game 2 but the end, the absence of Kawhi Leonard left them without a go-to scorer to combat Golden State's scoring runs, as they fell 120-108. Golden State; Kevin Durant took control of Game 3 with 19 of his 33 points in the third quarter, as the rest of Golden State's starters all scored in double digits. Curry had 21 points with Green going for 10-7-7. Of note, McGee replaced an injured Pachulia at center and scored 16 points in just 13 minutes plus Thompson scored 17 points, matching his total from the first two contests. Pachulia (heel) sat out Game 3 and is questionable for Monday. but that hardly matters. San Antonio: Leonard is a near-certainty to miss the contest due to an ankle injury plus PF forward David Lee (knee) also could sit out. The shorthanded Spurs will continue to lean on the likes of 39-year-old Ginobili, who scored 21 points in 18 minutes on Saturday. "The competitiveness was great," Popovich told reporters of his club after Game 3. "Every time you look up, you're playing against four All-Stars, so you better be pretty perfect, and competitiveness-wise, I couldn't ask for anything more. We turned it over too much, and we've got to make some more shots. But it's a helluva team." The pick: The Spurs could have received a shot of confidence by the Celtics' upset of the Cavs last night but on the flip side, the Warriors should also now be forewarned about what can happen when a team "let's up." Kevin Durant went 11-of-19 from the floor in Game 3 to mark his fifth straight postseason game in which he's shot 50 percent or better plus Stephen Curry is averaging 30 points on 55.6 percent shooting in the first three games of the series. Golden State has now won all 11 games in this postseason and just in case anyone has forgotten, the Warriors have won 26 of their past 27 contests, overall. The total has opened slightly higher than in Game 3 but I'm still making the Over a 10* play. |
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05-22-17 | Angels v. Rays UNDER 8 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: The LA Angels will visit the Tampa Rays on Monday to open a four-game series, with both teams sporting identical 23-23 records.The Rays saw their four-game winning steak snapped with a 3-2 loss to New York on Sunday but have won their last three series after taking two of three from the Yankees over the weekend. Meanwhile the Angels have captured five of their last seven games, including a 12-5 road victory over the New York Mets on Sunday in which they belted four HR. Mike Trout, who is batting .350 on the season, hit one of the LA's homers and added a double as he has now reached base in 38 of the 40 games in which he has played this year. However, Albert Pujols (right hamstring) has missed three straight contests and is listed day-to-day. The pitching matchup: JC Ramirez (3-3 & 3.97 ERA) gets the ball for LA and Jake Odorizzi (3-2 & 3.16 ERA) for the Rays. Ramirez has completed at least five innings in all seven starts this season and limited opponents to three or fewer runs five times. However, has managed to record just one victory in that five-game span, although the Angels are 4-1 in those games. Ramirez opened the season 2-0 in three relief stints but will now make an eighth straight start. He has worked two scoreless innings of relief versus the Rays in his career. Odorizzi allowed four runs on seven hits over six innings his last time out at Cleveland (won ), after allowing one run in each of his previous three starts. He has held opponents to a .195 batting average and has a 0.89 WHIP this season but needs to cut down on the long balls, having surrendered seven HRs in seven outings. While it's a small sample size, Odorizzi is 0-3 with a 6.98 ERA against the Angels in four career starts (team is 1-3). The pick: Despite LA's 12-run outburst at Citi Field on Sunday, the Angels are averaging only 3.57 RPG in 23 road games this season (just 8-15). Odorizzi's LT record against LA is poor but his 2017 WHIP and opponents BA (see above for both numbers) are impressive. Likewise, Ramirez has found a home as a starter for LA. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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05-21-17 | Rangers v. Tigers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 105 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: The Tigers ended the Rangers' 10-game winning streak. Miguel Cabrera returned to the lineup from a three-game injury absence and homered, one of four hit by Detroit. J.D. Martinez continued his torrid pace by launching his sixth HR in eight contests since making his season debut on May 12. The Tigers will be starting an 11-game road trip on Monday (it begins with four against major league-best Houston) but first must solve a pitcher that has owned them. The pitching matchup: Yu Darvish (4-2 & 2.76 ERA) takes the mound for Texas up against Detroit's Matthew Boyd (2-3 & 5.18 ERA). Darvish has won all six career starts against Detroit, although his ERA is not "lights out" (3.46). However, he enters on a five-start unbeaten streak, coming off permitting just one run on four hits over seven innings to beat Philadelphia 5-1 last Tuesday. He's 3-0 in his five-game unbeaten streak with Texas going 5-0 in those games. Boyd will need to bounce back from a dreadful performance against Baltimore last Tuesday, when he tied a season low with 2 1/3 innings pitched, getting battered for seven runs on eight hits, as the Tigers lost 13-11 in 13 innings. However, that awful outing was preceded by a string of three straight quality starts, although the Tigers lost all three of them. He is 1-3 with a 5.24 ERA in four career starts against the Rangers. The pick: Let's give Boyd a 'mulligan" for his last outing and expect that the ESPN cameras will motivate him. As noted above, Darvish needs no extra motivation when pitching against the Tigers (he has to be full of confidence) plus his current run of five starts in which Texas has won all five (Darvish owns a 2.38 ERA), surely won't hurt that confidence. Make the Under an 8* play. |
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05-21-17 | Senators v. Penguins UNDER 5 | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: With the series tied at one-all, the Senators used a blistering-hot start (4-0 first-period lead) to put the Penguins on their heels in Game 3. However, the Penguins returned the favor in Game 4, getting out to a 3-0 lead from which Ottawa wouldn't recover, as Pittsburgh tied the series at two-all with a 3-2 Game 4 win. The series shifts to PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh for Game 5 on Sunday afternoon. Ottawa: "They played with urgency, which was to be expected. Stanley Cup champions, they bounce back in every series," head coach Guy Boucher told reporters after the Penguins matched their sum goal total from their first three contests in Game 4's win. Ottawa was able to get just three shots in the first three of four power-play opportunities in Game 4 and is no a woeful 0-for-25 with the man advantage in its last nine contests. Karlsson has recorded an assist in back-to-back contests (leads the team with 15 playoff points) and is averaging a robust 28:25 of ice time in the postseason despite playing with two hairline fractures in his heel that presumably will require attention in the off-season. Pittsburgh: After scoring just one goal in each of the first three games against Ottawa, the Penguins had three goals before the second period was over in Game 4. Pittsburgh captain Sidney Crosby set up defenseman Olli Maatta's game-opening goal and added a power-play tally for his first multi-point performance since sustaining a concussion on Washington defenseman. Jake Guentzel notched two assists on Friday to increase his point total to 16 (nine goals, seven assists), which is five shy of the NHL rookie record for a single playoff year - set by Minnesota's Dino Ciccarelli in 1981 and matched by Philadelphia's Ville Leino in 2010. Of course, the goalie switch from Fleury to Murray also played out well, as Murray saved 24 of 26 shots. The pick: Are Pittsburgh's offensive woes now a thing of the past? I'm not syure about that. Ottawa's Craig Anderson allowed three goals on Friday for the first time since Game 5 of the second-round series versus the New York Rangers. However, note that he has had better statistics in the playoffs on the road (2.02 goals-against average, .927 save percentage) than at home. Murray's play sparked the Pens to last year's Stanley Cup win and I expect another excellent game from him. Also, let's not ignore Ottawa's 0 for 25 run on the power play! Make the under a 10*. |
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05-21-17 | Yankees v. Rays UNDER 8 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 21 m | Show |
The pitching matchup: CC Sabathia (3-2 & 4.93 ERA) takes the mound for New York up against Tampa's Chris Archer (3-2 & 3.70 ERA). Sabathia allowed just five hits over 6 2/3 scoreless innings in a 7-1 victory at Kansas City last Tuesday. It was a welcome relief for the veteran who had given up 22 runs on 30 hits over 20 2/3 innings in his previous four outings. CC is very familiar with the Rays, having gone 15-14 (3.76 ERA) in 42 career starts against them (teams are 22-20). Archer's off a 'nightmare' 2016 season but started well in 2017. However, he's managed just one victory over his last six starts. He had put together three quality starts but then got pounded for seven runs (six earned) over five innings at Cleveland last Monday in a in an 8-7 loss. He's is 6-5 with a 2.63 ERA in 14 career starts against the Yankees (Rays are 8-6). The pick: Archer's troubles have come on the road in 2017, as the team is 4-1 in his home starts, with Archer posting a 2.94 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. As for CC, while he owns a bloated 7.41 ERA at Yankee Stadium, his road ERA is a respectable 3.45. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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05-20-17 | Warriors v. Spurs OVER 212 | Top | 120-108 | Win | 100 | 62 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cavs' routed the Celtics in Game 2 last night to join the Warriors at 10-0 this postseason. The Western Conference finals, after a three-fay break, return to center stage tonight in San Antonio. The Warriors hardly looked like a team that was in any danger of losing even a game in this series last Tuesday, with a 136-100 thrashing of the Spurs in Game 2. The Spurs watched Game 1 turn (the series, as well?) when Kawhi Leonard went down with an ankle injury. They are hoping (praying?) he can return to the lineup for Game 3, although according to San Antonio head coach Gregg Popovich, a change of attitude is necessary whether or not Leonard is on the floor. "I don't think they believed," he told reporters after watching his team get crushed in Game 2. "And you have to believe. I don't think as a group they really did, which means probably a little bit feeling sorry for themselves psychologically, subconsciously, whatever psycho-babble word you want to use. … That was disappointing." The Warriors are feeling pretty good about themselves after shooting 56.2 percent from the floor in Game 2 while holding the Spurs to 37 percent. Golden State: Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry were both named to the All-NBA second team on Thursday while forward Draymond Green was a third-team selection. Curry is averaging 28.6-5.6-5.8 this postseason, while Durant has averaged 23.8 & 7.0 (he missed two games) and Green 14.1-8.9-7.1, Klay Thompson was left off the All-NBA teams and is one of the few Golden State players struggling in the postseason while averaging 14.6 points on 38.8 percent shooting, down from 22.3 points on 46.8 percent shooting in the regular season. Andre Iguodala (left knee soreness) and Zaza Pachulia (right heel contusion) are listed as questionable for Saturday's Game 3, although Iguodala participated in practice Friday and appears closer to a return than Pachulia at this point. San Antonio: Leonard has sat out two of the last three playoff games due to left ankle issues and did not do any on-court work while reporters were at the San Antonio practice facility on Thursday. If Leonard is limited or unable to go, the Spurs will have to find scoring from somewhere. The most likely source is LaMarcus Aldridge but after a solid Game 1, he managed only eight points on 4-of-11 shooting in Game 2. "LaMarcus has to score for us," Popovich told reporters. "He can't be timid. He turned down shots in the first quarter. He can't do it. You've got to score. Scoring has to come from some place." The pick: Leonard is averaging 27.7 points on 52.5 percent shooting in the postseason but is also San Antonio's best defensive player. No way Leonard is 100 percent and just how will the Spurs slow the Warriors, who are averaging 117.1 PPG this postseason? This is a pretty low over/under number for the Warriors and the first two games of this series have averaged final scores of 230 points, over two 'TDs' more than the opening total in this contest. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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05-20-17 | Giants v. Cardinals UNDER 8 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cardinals' bullpen allowed six runs over the final three innings of Friday's 6-5 loss to the Giants, spoiling six scoreless innings by St. Louis starter Michael Wacha, not to mention and a three-run HR in the seventh by Dexter Fowler. This three-game series continues Saturday night, with the Cards looking to snap a season high-tying three-game losing streak. As for the Giants, going into the ninth inning of a May 10 game at the New York Mets, the Giants were trailing 3-2 and hadn't rallied for a road win when trailing in the ninth since 2015. However, they scored four runs in the ninth inning at New York to beat the Mets 6-5 that game. They had been back in San Francisco until last night (went 5-2) but after erasing a 5-4 deficit in the ninth Friday night at St. Louis, now own consecutive 9th-inning comeback wins on the road.f However, let's not get too carried away, as the Giants are only 7-15 on the road in 2017. The pitching matchup: Jeff Samardzija (1-5 & 5.26 ERA) will take the mound for the Giants and Carlos Martinez (3-3 & 3.88 ERA) for the Cards. Samardzija is once again failing to live up to his supposed potential. In fact, his first win of the 2017 came just this past Sunday at home against Cincinnati, which he held to three runs in 6 2/3 innings. Samardzija may have 28 strikeouts with no walks over his last three appearances but he owns just a single win in eight starts! He is 3-3 with a 4.15 ERA in 10 career starts against the Cards (teams are 6-4). Martinez is 3-0 with a 2.70 ERA in three starts this month after leading his team past the Chicago Cubs last Saturday. He allowed three runs in 6 2/3 innings against the defending champs, while striking out seven for the second consecutive start. He's 2-0 with 2.37 ERA in two career starts against the Giants. The pick: Samardzija owns a 6.66 ERA on the road in 2017 (four starts) but there's also that 47-8 KW ratio over his last six starts to consider. Yes, the Giants have hit better lately (have averaged 5.0 runs the last five games) but they still rank 29th in scoring (3.44 per), 27th in team BA (.234) and 30th in OPS (.646). As for the Cards, they are averaging a very modest 3.91 RPG in going 11-12 at home. The Under is a 10* play. |
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05-19-17 | Cavs v. Celtics OVER 219.5 | Top | 130-86 | Loss | -102 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cleveland Cavaliers have rolled to nine straight wins this postseason, averaging 114.8 PPG. After failing to cover their first two games against the Pacers, the Cavs are 6-0-1 or 7-0 ATS their last seven. In fact, Cleveland has now won 12 straight playoff games since being down 3-1 against the Warriors in last year's Finals, going 9-2-1 or 10-2 ATS. LBJ (38-9-7) and Kevin Love (32 & 12) led the way in Game 1's rout and Boston now has had just one day to regroup, as the Cavs will try to match the 1988-89 Lakers for the longest winning streak in NBA playoff history (13) in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference finals. Cleveland: LBJ is averaging 34.8 points, nine rebounds and 7.1 assists in the postseason and has scored 30 or more points in each of the last seven games. "He's playing at a high level, and that's the reason why we're riding him so much," Cleveland head coach Tyronn Lue told reporters. "When LeBron's playing at that level other guys just have to be solid and we have a good chance to win." Plenty of "solid play" in Game 1 came from PF Kevin Love,who added a career playoff-high 32 points to go with 12 rebounds plus center Tristan Thompson, who chipped in a career playoff-best 20 points on 7-of-7 shooting. Boston: The Celtics just survived a tough seven-game series against the Wizards to reach the conference finals for the first time since 2012 and can't be happy with their Game 1 effort. However, PG Isaiah Thomas maintains his team isn't intimidated. "They lace up their shoes just like us," Thomas told reporters on Thursday. "They just happened to play better than us in Game 1. We just gotta protect home court in Game 2 and get the win." That may be a little optimistic or Thomas may just be "whistling past the graveyard." After all, Thomas scored just 17 points on 7-of-19 shooting in the opener, marking the fourth time in the past six games he scored fewer than 20 points. Backup center Kelly Olynyk scored just two points in the opener, after scoring a playoff career-high 26 in the final game of the series against the Washington Wizards on Monday. The pick: Boston can't control or even slow down, LBJ. The Celtics need more offense from Isaiah Thomas, who nawas med All-NBA second team Thursday. He did have 10 assists to go along with 17 points in Game 1 and became the first Celtic since Rajon Rondo in 2012 with back-to-back playoff double-doubles. However, it wasn't nearly enough. Can Boston beat Cleveland? It doesn't look like it but the Celtics have averaged 110.0 PPG at home this season (including the playoffs) and I expect them to be MUCH better offensively in Game 2. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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05-19-17 | Royals v. Twins OVER 8 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -119 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: The 17-23 Kansas City Royals will be in Minnesota tonight for the opener of a three-game series with the 20-17 Twins. This series opens a 10-game road trip for the Royals, who are winless in five games against the Twins this season. Minnesota halted a three-game slide with a 2-0 victory over Colorado in the second game of Thursday's doubleheader but the Twins have scored just 14 runs in their last six contests. |
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05-19-17 | Penguins v. Senators OVER 5 | Top | 3-2 | Push | 0 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: The Pittsburgh Penguins' high-octane offense averaged an NHL-best 3.39 goals per game in the regular season but in three games against Ottawa, the Penguins have scored just one goal in each game of this series. Kessel's third-period goal in Game 2 was enough to win but when Crosby scored for the Pens in Game 3, Ottawa already led 5-0. Game 4 of this series is clearly a pivotal one for the defending champs, as coming back from a 3-1 deficit may be too much to ask of a Pittsburgh team struggling on offense and decimated by injuries on the blue line. Adding more drama to the occasion, Pittsburgh head coach Mike Sullivan told reporters he'd reveal what he hopes to be his ace in the hole on Friday morning, with the disclosure of whether franchise goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury or rookie Matt Murray will get the start in net! Pittsburgh: Fleury had been nothing short of brilliant while stepping in for an injured Murray (lower body), lifting the Penguins past Columbus and Washington and stopping 56 of 58 shots versus Ottawa in the first two games before getting shredded for four goals on nine shots in the first period of a Wednesday's 5-1 loss. The roles are somewhat reversed from last season when the 22-year-old Murray took over for a concussed Fleury and guided Pittsburgh to its fourth Stanley Cup title in franchise history. That aside, the Penguins still have their offensive woes to deal with. Those haven't just begun this series, as they come into this contest having mustered just nine tallies in their last six games, which follows them having scored 35 goals in their first nine of the playoffs. Ottawa: Head coach Guy Boucher offered his own take on the Penguins' netminding situation. "I don't care," Boucher said, according to the Ottawa Sun. "Whether it's (Fleury) or another goalie, it doesn't matter." Ottawa's 1-3-1 system is largely responsible for flustering Pittsburgh but the team's offensive 'explosion' (four, first-period goals) was a welcome sight in Game 3. Ottawa's offense was almost non-existent in Game 2, as the Senators failed to record a shot on goal for 18:53 bridging the second and third periods! Five different players scored in Wednesday's win with Ryan adding two assists (giving him five goals and eight assists) to close within one point of Karlsson's team-leading 14 points (two goals / 12 assists) this postseason. The pick: Penguins head coach Mike Sullivan has chosen to keep everyone guessing as to the identity of his starting goalie on Friday and is that really a "winning strategy?" Time will tell. What I do see is the defending champs coming out strong. A team with the firepower of Malkin (6 G / 14 A), Kessel ( 6 G / 9 A), Crosby (5 G / 10 A) and Guentzel (9 G / 5 A) will not be shut down in a "must win" situation. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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05-18-17 | Blue Jays v. Braves OVER 8 | Top | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: Toronto opened the week having won seven of eight games and after a 2-11 start to 2017, sat at 17-21. The Blue Jays had to be confident as the new week began with a four-game, home-and-home IL series with the Atlanta Braves. Atlanta had lost 93 games in 2016 and opened the week at 13-21, having gone 7-15 since a 6-6 start. However, the Braves have won three consecutive games against the Blue Jays heading into Thursday’s finale of the series at SunTrust Park. The bad news for Atlanta is, first baseman Freddie Freeman left Wednesday’s 8-4 victory when he was hit by a pitch on the left wrist. Freeman, who started the day leading the National League in HRs while ranking in the top-10 in average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. He is scheduled to undergo further testing Thursday. It's been a contentious series, as Toronto pitchers have hit seven Atlanta hitters in the past three games while allowing 27 runs during that stretch. It's led to two bench-clearing incidents in Wednesday's contest. The pitching matchup: Marcus Stroman (3-2 & 3.33 ERA) will take the mound for Toronto and Julio Teheran (3-3 & 4.08 ERA) will toe the rubber for Atlanta. Stroman has posted a 2.87 ERA over his last five starts, holding opponents to two runs or less four times in that span. Stroman pitched two complete games in his first four starts of 2017 but makes his first career appearance against Atlanta. Teheran won 3-1 at Miami last Saturday, allowing three hits with four strikeouts across six scoreless innings. He may be Atlanta's ace but in three career starts against Toronto (0-0 record with team going 2-1), he's posted a 6.60 ERA with five HRs allowed over 15 innings. The pick: The Blue Jays pitching staff has allowed 27 runs in the first three games of this series and while Stroman owns a 2.87 ERA over his last five starts, he's allowed 33 hits in 31 1/3 innings during those starts. That kind of ratio tends to catch up with a pitcher. As for Teheran, he not only owns that ugly 6.60 ERA in three career outings vs. Toronto, but before his strong outing last Saturday, he had surrendered 19 ERs over 21 1/3 innings in his four previous starts, going 1-3 with an 8.02 ERA and five HRs allowed. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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05-17-17 | Mets v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 107 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: The Mets have lost the first two of this three-game series in Arizona against the Diamondbacks, 7-3 and 5-4. They have now lost six straight, while allowing opponents to average 7.8 runs during the team's slide. In contrast, the Diamondbacks have won five of their last seven and have upped their home record in 2017 to an impressive 17-8. That's quite an improvement for a team which was a woeful 33-48 at home in 2016, while going 69-93 overall, in finishing 22 games back of the division-winning Dodgers in the NL West. |
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05-16-17 | Spurs v. Warriors OVER 208.5 | Top | 100-136 | Win | 100 | 21 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: The Warriors owned the league's best record at 67-15 and opened the postseason with back-to-back four-game sweeps of the Trail Blazers and Jazz. However, the well-rested Warriors were completely outplayed by the Spurs on Sunday UNTIL Kawhi Leonard went down with a sprained left ankle in the third quarter. Leonard landed on Golden State center Zaza Pachulia's foot after attempting a jump shot with 7:53 left in the third quarter, forcing him out of the game for good. You've all heard the controversy surrounding the play (intentional or not), so I'll move on. The Spurs were up by 23 points went Leonard left the game and the Warriors immediately went on an 18-0 run. Cutting to the chase, Golden State outscored San Antonio 58-33 after Leonard's exit en route to a 113-111 triumph. Leonard underwent an MRI on his left ankle/foot Monday. It came back negative, which keeps the door open for him to return when the series shifts to San Antonio on Saturday. However, the Most Valuable Player candidate is out for Game 2.
San Antonio: Leonard scored 26 points in 24 minutes before leaving Game 1 and while PF LaMarcus Aldridge tried to pick up the slack while posting 28 points, he was 'gassed' in the fourth quarter. Starting guards Mills (five points) and Green (eight points) have to be better, especially Mills, who was 1 of 8 from the floor (0 of 6 on threes). Gasol started at center and scored five points in only 16 minutes and PF Lee played 16 minutes off the bench, going scoreless. Pop made it very clear how he felt about Pachulia's actions but knows it's now time to "coach his team up."Golden State: The Warriors are well aware they 'stole' Game 1 and will have to be way better in Game 2, even with the Spurs playing without Kawhi. Curry (40) and K.D. (34) led the comeback on Sunday. Curry scored 26 of his 40 points after the break (19 in the third quarter) while Durant, who was hounded by Leonard for the first 28 minutes of the contest, saw things open up on the offensive end in the second half as well. However, Warriors must be somewhat concerned about Thompson, who had six points on 2 of 11 shooting. In nine postseason games, he has as many six-point games (two), as 20-point efforts, and is shooting 38.8% in the postseason. Andre Iguodala (left knee) logged only 10 minutes on Sunday and sat out the second half. Mike Brown insisted afterward it was more of a coach's decision than a necessity and Monday's MRI displayed no structural damage. Still, he's questionable for Game 2. The pick: The pointspread is higher in Game 2 (than the opener) with Leonard out and while the Warriors could roll over the Spurs in this one, I'd rather play the over. The Warriors have averaged 115.0 PPG this postseason and should top that here plus as the Spurs proved in Game 6 at Houston in scoring 114 points, also without Leonard, they don't rojust l over without their star. Make the Over a 10* play. XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX The set-up: One thing is for sure against Anaheim, NO lead is safe. Anaheim erased an early two-goal deficit to avoid falling into a 2-0 series hole Sunday night, following a pattern that saw it storm back from three goals down against Calgary and Edmonton in the first two rounds of the playoffs. The Ducks scored four goals in about 19 minutes on Sunday to take a 4-3 lead into the third period. A late empty-netter made the final 5-3. Now it's on to Nashville, where the Ducks will need to win at least once, to earn back the home ice edge. The problem being, that the Predators are a perfect 5-0 this postseason at Bridgestone Arena. Anaheim: I wish we didn't get down in the first place," Ducks forward Rickard Rakell said. "It's almost like we feel, 'Oh, we've got nothing to lose now.' It's almost like that's when we play our best game. Maybe sometimes we shouldn't wait for that to get going." Anaheim head coach Randy Carlyle made a calculated gamble in Game 2 when, with his team trailing by two goals, he shuffled his lines and replaced Corey Perry with rookie Ondrej Kase on the No. 1 unit with captain Ryan Getzlaf and Nick Ritchie. Kase scored the tying goal in the second period -- his first of the playoffs -- as part of a huge night for that line that saw Getzlaf collect three assists and Ritchie score the decisive tally, his second-game winner in three contests. Getzlaf has scored 18 points in the postseason, second to Pittsburgh's Evgeni Malkin. Now Carlyle needs to "wave his magic wand" once again. Ottawa: The Predators allowed more than three goals in this postseason for the first time in Sunday's 5-3 setback. Nashville goaltender Pekka Rinne had been great up until Sunday, when he had a very shaky performance. "Now we’re heading home and have another opportunity at home," he said following Game 2. "That’s the best part of it." There is a "game within a game" developing between Nashville's Ryan Johansen and Anaheim's Ryan Kesler, with the Predators' top line center bristling at what he considers suspect tactics by his counterpart. That aside, Johansen scored one goal and set up another Sunday to give him 13 points, tying for the most in franchise postseason history. The pick: If any goalie deserves a 'mulligan' this postseason, it's Nashville's Pekka Rinne. He entered Sunday's game having allowed just 1.41 GPG with a save percentage of .950 in 11 playoff games. He'll be on home ice tonight, where he's turned aside 141 of 147 shots for a .959 save percentage in leading Nashville to a 5-0 record. Let me add that since back-to-back defeats against Anaheim a year ago here at home, the Predators have won nine straight playoff games at Bridgestone Arena. Make Nashville a 10* play. |
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05-16-17 | Astros v. Marlins UNDER 8.5 | Top | 12-2 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: The Astros opened this four-game, home-and-home IL series with the Miami Marlins by taking Monday's contest, 7-2. Yuli Gurriel led the way with a grand slam, Houston's third in May, which sets a franchise record for one month. The 27-12 Astros own MLB's best record, are now 13-6 on the road and have won each of their three interleague games. Meanwhile, the Marlins are headed in the opposite direction. After opening the season at 10-8, the Marlins have gone 4-15 since, and have not won consecutive games since April 22-23. Houston owns an eight-game lead in the AL West, while Miami occupies the basement in the NL East at 14-23. The Marlins are already 10 games back of the Nationals in the division and the team's winning percentage of .378 is better than only San Diego, which is 15-25 (.375). The pitching matchup: Dallas Keuchel (6-0 & 1.69 ERA) takes the mound for Houston and Tom Koehler (1-1 & 5.60 ERA) for Miami. Keuchel will try to become MLB's first seven-game winner, after he beat the Yankees 3-2 last Thursday. It was his shortest outing of the year (aix innings) but he tied a season high with nine strikeouts and walked only one. He is tied for the MLB lead in innings pitched (58 2/3) and his ERA is third overall among qualified hurlers. The 2015 American League Cy Young Award winner allowed two unearned runs over seven innings in his only previous start against Miami, a game in which he took the loss. Koehler has finished as many as six innings only twice in his first seven starts of 2017 and has fallen shy of that mark three straight times, including a no-decision against St. Louis on Wednesday in which he gave up four runs in 5 1/3 innings. He threw a season-high 99 pitches in that outing but for the first time in 2017, didn't allow a HR. He has won his only prior start against the Astros, although his ERA in that game was 5.40! The pick: Houston is 15 games over .500 for the first time since the end of the 2005 season (89-73) and Keuchel has regained his 2015 Cy Young form. As noted above, the Marlins are in a 4-15 funk which includes a 1-6 mark on their current homestand,. Miami has managed just six runs in its last three games, going 2 of 21 (.095) with RISP. I see little reason to think that the Marlins will 'touch' Keuchel. The Under is a 10* play. |
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05-15-17 | Senators v. Penguins UNDER 5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 127 | 33 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: Were the defending Stanley Cup champs a little flat in Game 1 against Ottawa, after taking out the Presidents' Trophy-winning Caps in seven games? Flat or not, Pittsburgh fell to Ottawa in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals by the score of 2-1 in OT. Bobby Ryan set up Jean-Gabriel Pageau for the series-opening goal and then The pick: Yes, Pittsburgh is 5-0 in Game 2 of a series dating back to last season's playoff run but the Senators just keep playing one-goal games. Ottawa's 2-1 OT win in Game 1 makes it 10 one-goal games in the Senators' 13 playoff games, so far. Expect Fleury to be sharp for Pittsburgh but there is no reason Anderson won't play well again, either. Another 2-1 final would be no surprise. Make the Under an 8* play. |
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05-15-17 | Braves v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 10-6 | Win | 100 | 17 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: Kevin Pillar’s walk-off homer gave the Blue Jays a 3-2 win on Sunday over Seattle, Toronto's fifth victory in a row and seventh in eight games. Toronto had played in both the 2015 and 2016 ALCS but lost 11 of 13 to open the 2017 season. However, the Blue Jays are now 15-10 since that ugly start and open this two-game interleague home series against the Atlanta Braves with a 17-21 mark. Atlanta was not able to complete a three-game sweep in Miami on Sunday, falling 3-1. The Braves sit at 13-21 (already 9 1/2 games back of the Nats in the NL East) and only the 14-25 Gianst own a worse winning percentage in MLB. The pitching matchup: Bartolo Colon (1-4 & 7.22 ERA) gets the start for Atlanta, opposed by Toronto's Mike Bolsinger (0-1 & 3.18 ERA). Atlanta signed Colon as a free agent and he's been a big disappointment. He gave up five first-inning runs and eight overall in 5 2/3 innings Tuesday at Houston, extending a stretch during which he has surrendered 36 hits and an OPS of 1.099. His lone win this season came when he allowed just one hit in seven innings against San Diego back on April 16. However, he has yielded seven or more hits in each of his four starts since (36 hits & 23 ERs in 21 IP). Colon has posted a 10-6 record and 4.25 ERA in 26 career starts against Toronto (teams are 15-11). Bolsinger makes his second start of the season after losing his debut against Cleveland on Tuesday, when he gave up two runs on three hits and four walks in 5 2/3 innings. He is 8-17 with a 4.57 ERA in 38 games over four major-league seasons but had posted a 1.46 ERA in four starts for Triple-A Buffalo before joining Toronto. Bolsinger has made two career starts against Atlanta as a member of the Los Angeles Dodgers, going 1-1 with a4.22 ERA. The pick: Since earning his lone win of 2017 (4/16), Colon owns a 9.55 ERA in four starts. As for Bolsinger, he's nothing more than a journeyman. The play here is a 10* on the Over. |
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05-14-17 | Predators v. Ducks UNDER 5 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: The Anaheim Ducks lost their first two games at home to the Oilers but were able to rebound in the second round, taking that series in seven games. However, Anaheim can ill-afford to fall into an 0-2 'hole' here vs. Nashville, as the eighth-seeded Predators are not only 9-2 this postseason but that includes a perfect 5-0 record on home ice. If Anaheim loses tonight, this could be a short series. The Predators stole home ice from Anaheim by eking out a 3-2 overtime victory in Game 1, winning their third consecutive series opener on the road. The loss drops the Ducks to just 4-3 on home ice this postseason. Nashville: The Predators dominated the play in Game 1, out-shooting the Ducks 46-29. "You get some momentum right away, for sure," said Nashville defenseman Mattias Ekholm, who collected a pair of assists. "But we know we haven't done nothing yet. We have to stay on for Game 2, and we know now we'll have that home-ice advantage again. We're really comfortable on home ice and on the road, and it's a good feeling to get the first one." The Predators have scored 31 goals in winning nine of 11 games, while allowing only 16. Anaheim: John Gibson was in net for the opening two games against Nashville last year, both 3-2 setbacks, and never saw the ice again in the series. However, no one is blaming Gibson for Friday's loss, as he made 43 saves! "Our goaltender should get full credit for keeping us in the game," head coach Randy Carlyle said of Gibson, who was victimized by a deflected shot on the game-winning tally. The pick: This is a "must win" for the Ducks, as if they head to Nashville down 0-2....Nashville is 5-0 at Bridgestone Arena this postseason thanks in large part to Pekka Rinne, who's turned aside 141 of 147 shots for a .959 save percentage. The problem is, the Ducks have managed just five goals over their last three games plus they are mired in a six-game power-play drought, failing on all 20 chances. As for Nashville's Rinne, he' s allowed just 1,41 GPG with a save percentage of .950 in 11 playoff games. The Under has to be the 10* play. |
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05-14-17 | Mets v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 9-11 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
The set-up: Milwaukee placed Ryan Braun on the 10-day disabled list prior to Friday's game with the Mets but the Brewers haven't missed him, winning 7-4 on Friday (team had four HRs) and last night, used 16 hits (just one HR) and an eight-run 5th to win, 11-4! The 20-17 Brewers will attempt to complete a sweep of the visiting Mets and post their sixth victory in seven contests Sunday. The Mets are heading in the opposite direction, as after winning five of their previous six, the Mets have dropped three straight to find themselves three games under .500 (16-19). |
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05-12-17 | Reds v. Giants UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: The San Francisco Giants had two starting position players return to the lineup Thursday but they still wound up on the losing end of a 3-2 game. Denard Span went 4-for-5 with a double and a solo HR after missing about three weeks with a shoulder sprains and hortstop Brandon Crawford (groin) went 1-for-4 from the cleanup spot in his return from the disabled list. With the defeat, San Francisco fell to a major league-worst 12-24 record and have now lost all four meetings with the Reds in 2017. The Reds have won seven of their last eight overall and sit at 19-15, a half-game back of the first-place Cards in the NL Central. |
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05-12-17 | Dodgers v. Rockies UNDER 9.5 | Top | 6-2 | Win | 105 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: The Dodgers out-hit the Rockies Thursday 14-12 in the first contest of a four-game series at Coors Field. However, Colorado won the game 10-7, moving 2 1/2 games up on LA in the NL West. The loss snapped the Dodgers' season-high five-game winning streak, while the victory was the seventh in nine games for Colorado, which is off to the best 36-game start in franchise history at 23-13 The pitching matchup: Clayton Kershaw (5-2 & 2.40 ERA) will start for LA and Yyler Chatwood (3-4 & 4.74 ERA). Kershaw defeated San Diego in his last start, striking out nine in 7 1/3 innings while giving up just one run and five hits. This marks his third start of 2017 vs. Colorado, having split two decisions. The loss came back on April 8 at Coors, when Kershaw served up three HRs, allowing back-to-back HRs for the first time in his career. He's 19-6 with a 3.15 ERA in 34 career starts vs. Colrado (Dodgers are 25-9). Chatwood is coming off an excellent last outing, in which he allowed one run on two hits over seven-plus innings of a 5-2 victory against Arizona. It was a sharp turnaround from his previous three starts, when he surrendered 14 runs on 19 hits in 16 1/3 innings. Chatwood is 4-6 with a 3.52 ERA in 11 career starts versus the Dodgers (teams are 4-7). The pick: The teams pounded out 26 hits and scored 17 runs on Thursday. Expect a different result here. Kershaw has limited opposing batters to a .210 average with a 53-7 KW ratio over 48 2/3 innings (0.92 WHIP). In 34 career starts vs. Colorado, Kershaw has limited Rockies hitters to a .220/.283/.329 slash line. Make the Under an 8* play. |
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05-11-17 | Royals v. Rays OVER 7.5 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: The Kansas City Royals opened their four-game series at Tampa Bay this past Monday on an eight-game road losing streak. However, the Royals won 7-3 on Monday and then again on Tuesday, 7-6 in 12 innings. KC's good fortune turned on Wednesday though, as the Rays enjoyed their best offensive outburst of the season. Tampa Bay's Colby Rasmus capped a three-hit performance with a grand slam in a 12-1 rout, a game in which Tampa Bay's lineup pounded out 16 hits. The teams wrap the series with a Thursday afternoon contest. |
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05-10-17 | Oilers v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: The Ducks/Oilers series saw the visiting team win the first four games, before things really got interesting. The Ducks made a miraculous third-period comeback in Game 5 at Anaheim, scoring three goals in the last 3:16 with their goaltender pulled. Then won in double-OT to take a 3-2 lead. Edmonton returned home but put the team's crushing Game 5 loss behind them quickly, scoring five first-period goals in a 7-1 rout and that sets up Wednesday's second Game 7. Anaheim is well-familiar with Game 7s but those memories are all bad, as the Ducks have lost Game 7s in each of the last four postseasons As for the Oilers, they own a 6-3 all-time record in Game 7s but they will play in their first since a 3-1 loss to Carolina in the 2006 Stanley Cup final. By the way, the 2006 season was the last time Edmonton has made the playoffs! |
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05-10-17 | Royals v. Rays OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-12 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: The Kansas City Royals opened their four-game series at Tampa Bay on an eight-game road losing streak but have won the first two contests, 7-3 on Monday and then, in a 12-inning game on Tuesday, 7-6. Mike Moustakas hit a solo HR in the 12th to provide the margin of victory for the Royals, who rallied from a four-run deficit. KC now has a chance to clinch its first series win since sweeping a three-game set from the LA Angels back on April 14-16. Tampa Bay has lost three straight to drop three games below .500 for the first time this year, at 13-16. The pitching matchup: Jason Hammel (1-3 & 5.53 ERA) will get the nod for the Royals and Chris Archer (2-1 & 3.57 ERA) for the Rays. Hammel is coming off his best start of the season, which resulted in his first victory in a Kansas City uniform. He limited Cleveland to one run on three hits over six innings in a 3-1 win on Friday. However, Hammel has sure not pitched the way KC had hoped, when the Royals signed him to a FA deal in February. Prior's to Friday's win, he had lasted only three innings in each of his previous two starts and even after a good effort vs. the Indians, he's got an 'ugly' 5.53 ERA, a 1.70 WHIP and opponents are hitting .288 against him. Hammel, who spent the first three seasons of his career with Tampa Bay, is 2-2 with a 4.26 ERA in six starts against his former team (teams are 3-3). Archer registered a season-high 11 strikeouts against Toronto on Friday but did not factor in the decision after allowing three runs in six innings. He is now win-less in his last four starts and while his numbers aren't all that bad, the Rays have now lost his last three starts, after winning his first four. Hardly inspiring confidence for tonight's game is the fact that Archer has yet to defeat Kansas City in his career, going 0-4 with a 5.63 ERA in five starts (Rays are 1-4). The pick: Last night's 12-inning game could (should?) prove chaotic for each team's pitching staff, tonight. The Royals and Rays combined to use 15 pitchers last night, with all but one available reliever appearing. Neither starter much confidence heading into tonight and the bullpens just may be spent. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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05-10-17 | Giants v. Mets UNDER 8 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: The Mets are going through a 'soap opera' with pitcher Matt Harvey but have a chance to make it a three-game sweep of their series with the Giants this afternoon, which would move them above the .500 mark for the first time since April 19. While the Mets sit at 16-16, losses on Monday and Tuesday at Citi Field leave the Giants at 11-13, owners of MLB's worst record. The Mets won 4-3 (Monday) and 6-1 last night, as the reeling Giants have dropped five in a row. This marks San Francisco's final contest of its nine-game road trip and the team has managed only nine runs on 23 hits during its five-game skid. The pitching matchup: Matt Cain (2-1 & 4.70 ERA) takes the mound for the Giants and Tommy Milone (1-0 & 6.43 ERA) gets the start for a troubled New York rotation. Cain was tagged for a career high-tying nine runs on 10 hits and six walks (which also matching a career worst) in losing 13-3 to the Reds last Friday. That was quite a drop-off, as he had allowed just three ERs over his previous four starts (23 innings with a 1.17 ERA), going 2-0 (team was 3-1). Cain is 6-6 with a 3.61 ERA in 15 career starts against the Mets (Giants are 8-7). Tommy Milone split his six appearances with Milwaukee between the rotation and bullpen to open the 2017 season but was waived after giving up four runs on six hits in a two-inning relief stint on April 29. The left-hander will make his New York Mets debut Wednesday afternoon and will be pitching for the first time in 12 days. He's only faced the Giants once in his career, back on May 29, 2013. He allowed four runs over five innings in that one but he got the win as the Oakland A's won 9-6 win at AT&T Park. The pick: Of course, Milone is a wild card but the good news for him is that the Giants are just not hitting. As for Cain, his last outing was a 'nightmare' but as noted, he was outstanding in his previous four turns. Make the Under an 8* play. |
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05-09-17 | Senators v. Rangers OVER 5 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: The Rangers have let two games in this series slip away with late-game collapses. New York squandered a late 5-3 lead before sustaining a double-overtime loss in Game 2, then suffered a similar fate in Game 5, as Ottawa tied the game with just 1:26 remaining in the third period, then won in OT when Kyle Turris scored at 6:28 of the first overtime. That puts Ottawa one victory away from reaching the conference final for the third time in franchise history and first since 2007, but for that to happen tonight, the Senators would have to win in MSG, where the Rangers have won 4-1 in both Games 3 and 4 of this series. Ottawa: Turris' Game 5 goal was his third career playoff game-winner, all of which have come in overtime. Captain Erik Karlsson registered the first three-point performance of his playoff career with a trio of assists in Game 5. He has fought through injury to score just one goal but set up 10 others this postseason, setting franchise records for most assists and points by a defenseman in one playoff year. It seemed like the problem for Ottawa in Game 3 was a lack of desperation with the Senators leading the series 2-0. The team's demeanor didn't much change in Game 4 either, with the Senators up 2-1 in the series. The Rangers now face elimination but Ottawa has the safety net of a potential Game 7 on home ice. Can the the Senators avoid a third straight flat performance in "the Garden?" NY Rangers: The Rangers were a better road team than a home team during the regular season but after losing their first home game of this postseason, have won four straight at MSG, including Games 3 and 4 of this series, by scores of 4-1. "Our group of veterans have a lot of experience," head coach Alain Vigneault said to the New York Daily News. "Not just NHL experience, but some guys have won the gold medal at the Olympics; some guys have played in World Cups. There is a lot of experience, and they have to use this experience right, first of all to get themselves ready to go out on the ice and execute and play hard and play well. And if they do that, then it's definitely in my mind going to rub off on the rest of our group that might have a little less experience but are leaning on those players to show them the way." The pick: Henrik Lundqvist has stooped 98 of 102 shots (.961 SP) in New York's four straight postseason home wins plus one could say a game like this has been "his moment." In his last 11 games at MSG with the Rangers facing elimination, Lundqvist is 10-1 with a 1.05 goals-against average, .965 save percentage and two shutouts. However, let me also add that New York's offense has been too much for Ottawa to handle, as the Rangers have scored at least four goals in four straight playoff contests (an average of 4.25 per game), for the first time since a six-game streak during the 1994 postseason. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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05-09-17 | Nationals v. Orioles UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: The Nats haven't bested the Orioles in a Beltway Series since going 4-2 back in 2007. The 2017 edition hasn't stared well for the Nats either, as Baltimore rode three HRs to a 6-4 victory on Monday night. Baltimore is now riding a five-game winning streak and sits at 21-10, just a half-game back of the NY Yankees in the AL East (Yanks own MLB's best record at 21-9). Washington fell to 21-11 with a second straight loss, following a four-game winning streak. However, there was good news for Washington, as Bryce Harper returned to the Nationals' lineup on Monday after missing the previous three games with a groin injury and went 2-for-3 with a home run, boosting his season batting average to .385. |
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05-08-17 | Angels v. A's UNDER 8 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: Mike Trout (.355, 8 HRs & 21 RBI) is in the midst of a 17-game hitting streak but has missed the Angels' last two contests with tightness in his left hamstring. They hope to have him back on Monday as they visit the Oakland Athletics for the opener of the third series between these two American League West rivals already this season. The Angels lost 5-3 at home to the Astros on Sunday to fall a game under . 500 on the season (16-17), while the A's won on both Saturday and Sunday over the Tigers (each time in walk-off fashion) to give them a 14-17 record. The Angels are 5-2 against the Athletics this season, splitting a season-opening four game series in Oakland but then sweeping a three-game set at home from April 25-27. The pitching matchup: Ricky Nolasco (2-2 & 4.68 ERA) goes for LA and Kendall Graveman (2-2 & 3.95 ERA) for Oakland. These two will face each other for the third time this season. Graveman earned the victory and Nolasco took the loss on Opening Night at the Coliseum when the A's defeated the Angels 4-2, with Nolasco getting even on April 27 in Anaheim when he out-dueled Graveman in a 2-1 Angels victory. Nolasco is unbeaten in his last three outings, winning two straight before escaping Seattle with a no-decision on Wednesday after he surrendered four runs and eight hits over 4 1/3 innings. Nolasco is 4-3 with one shutout and a 3.34 ERA in nine career starts against the Athletics (teams are 5-4). Graveman is looking to rebound from a dismal performance at Minnesota on Wednesday (Twins won 7-4), when he was ripped for six runs on five hits and four walks in just 3 1/3 innings. It was his second consecutive loss since returning from the disabled list after going 2-0 while allowing a total of four runs over 18 innings in three starts prior to being injured. Graveman is 2-2 with one complete game and a 3.28 ERA in eight career starts against the Angels (team is 4-4).The pick: This is the third go-round for these pitchers in 2017, with the first two games ending with game-ending totals of six and three runs. Deja vu all over again, so make the Under a 10* play. |
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05-08-17 | Warriors v. Jazz OVER 206 | Top | 121-95 | Win | 100 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: The Warriors used a late sport to put away the Jazz in Game 3, taking a 3-0 lead They also got some good news off the court, head coach Steve Kerr underwent a procedure to address a spinal cord leak and could resume his coaching career as early as later this postseason. Kerr did not travel with the team to Utah and is not expected back soon, but owner Joe Lacob gave a radio interview over the weekend and suggested that he may be getting closer to rejoining the team. As for the Jazz, they led by as much as nine points in the third quarter on Saturday and held Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson to a combined 7-of-29 from the floor (3 of 15 on threes) but still lost. "We played like we're capable of playing for the first time in the series," Utah head coach Quin Snyder told reporters. "But … that's why they are who they are." Golden State: With Curry and Thompson suffering through poor shooting nights in Game 3, Kevin Durant took over with 38 points (on 15-of-26 shooting). Green had another solid game and is averaging 15.7-8.3-5.7 in the series. That is the dilemma facing the Warriors' opponents. Shut down one component of Golden State's offense and another component instantly kicks into overdrive. Some games it is Durant. Others it is Curry, Thompson or Green. Utah: The Jazz played their best game of the series in Game 3 but overall, just can't match Golden State's 'arsenal.' Hayward had 29 points Saturday night plus Gobert added 21 & 15. However, Utah's bench was limited to 10 points and went a combined 4 of 22 from the floor. Joe Johnson, Rodney Hood and Derrick Favors all played important roles in Utah's series win over the Clippers but against the Warriors Johnson is averaging just 8.7 PPG (on 33.3% shooting), Hood only 7.7 PPG (also on 33.3% shooting) and Favors has a total of just seven points and 12 rebounds in the series. Adding insult to injury, Utah has been without second-leading scorer George Hill (toe) the last two games and he remains questionable for Game 4. The pick: The Warriors played very efficient on offense in the first two games, handing out 32 assists on 40 FGs in Game 1 and 33 assists on 42 FGs in Game 2. They shot a combined 49.1 percent from the floor through two games and defensively, forced 14.5 turnovers per game while averaging 22 points per game off of turnovers. Golden State was not that good in Game 3, with 17 assists on its 37 FGs and shot just 44.0 percent as a team (30.0% on threes). However, the Warriors still won by 11 points. Not sure the Jazz can beat the Warriors but I do expect a much better offensive effort from them in Game 4. Problem is, anyone expect Curry and Thompson to shoot as poorly as they did in Game 3 here in Game 4? Make the Over a 10* play. |
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05-08-17 | Capitals v. Penguins UNDER 5.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: The Caps began the third period of Saturday's Game 5 down 2-1 and 20 minutes away from losing yet another postseason series. However, Washington scored three goals less than eight minutes in, capped by Alex Ovechkin's fifth goal of this year's playoffs (he has three assists for eight points). "We're still down. We take good moments in the game (Saturday) and move forward," Ovechkin told reporters. Pittsburgh captain Sidney Crosby and fellow forward Conor Sheary returned on Saturday from one-game absences due to concussions, with Crosby notching his franchise high-tying 96th playoff assist for his 12th point (four goals, eight assists) in nine contests this postseason. Washington: Ovechkin has been impressive versus Pittsburgh with 26 points (12 goals, 14 assists) in 18 career postseason games. However, the Penguins have enjoyed the last laugh by winning seven of the previous eight series and going on to capture the Stanley Cup after the last two (2009, 2016). While Ovechkin often gets the headlines, countryman Evgeny Kuznetsov continues to be one of the main stories of this series after scoring a goal in each of the last three games to tie Nicklas Backstrom and Ovechkin for the team lead with five. Goaltender Hotlby held Pittsburgh at bay in the third period and since getting pulled in Game 2 (a 6-2 Pittsburgh win), has stopped 63 of 70 shots (.900 SP), which includes that "own goal" in Game 4. Pittsburgh: Crosby told reporters that his team needs to focus on puck possession as a means to overcome a huge shot discrepancy in the series (Washington leads 174-115). "I would say just a little bit more zone time," the two-time Hart Trophy winner - and 2017 finalist - told reporters. "If we can hold on to the puck a little bit more, we should get more shots. I think we'll generate a little bit more from that." The Penguins may have won seven of the previous eight series against the Capitals but Pittsburgh head coach Mike Sullivan isn't interested in history, whether it dates back to last season's second-round series versus Washington or the events of Game 5. "We have to have a short memory," Sullivan told reporters. "We just have to reset our mindset and go home and try to put our very best on the ice." The pick: Yes, the Capitals lost Game 6 in Pittsburgh last year 4-3 in overtime but the Capitals had won Game 6 in four off the previous series in which they had trailed 3-2. Can they win here and extend the series to a Game 7 in Washington? Not sure but I do expect this to be a tight one, making the Under a 10* play. |
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05-07-17 | Spurs v. Rockets OVER 212 | Top | 104-125 | Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: The Rockets shocked the Spurs with a 27-point win at San Antonio in Game 1. However, the Spurs have responded by winning Game 2 at home by 25 points and then earning back the home court edge with a 103-92 win at Houston in Game 3. That win came after the Spurs were informed that Tony Parker is through for the postseason plus the Spurs also survived a 43-point effort by James Harden. The Spurs now look to take a 3-1 lead in tonight's Game 4 in Houston, while the Rockets look for Harden's teammates to rebound from an awful Game 3 performance. San Antonio: Parker is out for the rest of the postseason after rupturing a quadriceps tendon in Game 2 but Pop decided to keep Patty Mills in a backup role. Rookie Dejounte Murray (two points in 15 minutes) made the start on Friday and will be in the opening lineup again on Sunday. However, Mills scored 15 points in 30 minutes. Kawhi had a "typical" game on Friday, scoring 26 points with 10 rebounds and seven assists. However, the underachieving Aldridge made a big contribution as well with his best postseason game this year (26 points). He was 12-of-20 shooting in Game 3 after averaging just 9.5 points on 8-of-22 shooting over the first two games of the series. Houston: Harden entered Game 3 having struggled from the floor in the last two games of the OKC series and the first two of this series. However, while Harden was terrific on Friday, his fellow backcourt teammates were just awful. Beverley plus reserves Gordon and Williams combined for 17 points (Williams was scoreless), going 6 of 27 (22.2%) from the floor, including 2 of 10 on threes. Starting SF Ryan Anderson had just two points and super-sub Nene, who starred against OKC, had just one point. The pick: Maybe the Rockets are still not up to taking down the Spurs in this kind of setting but no way Houston shoots as poorly as it did in Game 3, again. Including the postseason, Houston has averaged 116.3 PPG at home but has also allowed 107.6 points. That makes the Over an 8* play. |
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05-07-17 | Blues v. Predators UNDER 5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: The St. Louis Blues staved off elimination with a 2-1 win home win on Friday over the Predators, after losing consecutive games in Nashville to fall behind 3-1 in this second round series. The Predators are the West's No. 8 seed but take to their home ice on Sunday with a chance to advance to the Western Conference finals, something the franchise has yet to do. The Blues now face another win-or-go-home scenario when they visit the Predators on Sunday afternoon in Game 6 St. Louis: Jaden Schwartz delivered the tie-breaking goal in the first minute of the third period in Game 5's 2-1 win but St. Louis was able to score just one goal in each road loss to the Predators. "We know that we’re going to have to be even better next game," Blues head coach Mike Yeo told reporters. "We lost home-ice along the way here, so we have to find a way to win a game in their building and we know it won’t be an easy challenge for us, but we’ll be up for it.” So he hopes. Nashville: The Predators own a spotless 4-0 record in Nashville during the postseason, having allowed just five goals in their four wins at Bridgestone Arena. Nashville's No. 1 line of Ryan Johansen and 31-goal scorers Viktor Arvidsson and Filip Forsberg were dominant in a first-round sweep of top-seeded Chicago, combining for 15 points in the stunning upset. However, that unit has pretty much been kept in check by St. Louis, managing a total of three points - getting zero production from Arvidsson and one point from Johansen. 'Saving' the Predators has been goalie Pekka Rinne. There were questions about the drop-off in Rinne's play entering the playoffs but he has posted a 7-2-0 mark, 1.41 goals-against average and a staggering .951 save percentage, The pick: St. Louis netminder Blues Jake Allen owns a 1.94 GAA and .937 SP in the playoffs but his team hasn't been able to score enough. In particular, the Blues are 1 of 14 with a man advantage against Nashville and a woeful 2 of 29 on the power play in this year's playoffs, to-date. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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05-07-17 | Cardinals v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: The Braves were coming off a 68-93 season in 2016 but players and fans alike were looking forward to 2017, if for no other reason than the team was opening a new home stadium, SunTrust Park. However, Atlanta is just 11-17 to open the season and after starting 4-0 in its new stadium, the Braves have dropped seven of their last eight games at home. The Cards missed the postseason in 2016 for the first time since 2010 and started slowly in 2017 at 3-9. However, they have won 12 of 17 games since, including the first two of this three-game series in Atlanta, 10-0 on Friday and 5-3 last night. St. Louis goes for its first series sweep on the road this year when the Cards cap a three-game set at SunTrust Park with Braves on Sunday afternoon. The pitching matchup: Michael Wacha (2-1 & 3.23 ERA) takes the mound for the Cards and R.A. Dickey (3-2 & 3.94 ERA) for the Braves. Wacha gave up a season-high four ERs in six innings of a no-decision against Milwaukee this past Monday but note that he's off to a solid start in 2017, lasting at least six innings while walking two batters or less in all five of his starts (has 28 Ks in 30 2/3 innings). He owns 3.12 ERA in three career games versus Atlanta but is 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA in one start. Unlike the 25-year-old Wacha, Dickey will be making the 375th appearance and 275th start of his career. He's looking for a third straight win but although he has held opponents to a .248 average, six of the 19 hits he has allowed over the last four starts have been HRs. Dickey owns a 4.09 ERA in seven career appearances against St. Louis. That includes five starts in which he's 3-1 with a 4.26 ERA (teams are 4-1). The pick: The Cards have now won five straight in Atlanta dating back to Turner Field last season and Wacha is beginning to show signs of the pitcher we saw back in the 2013 postseason (4-1 & 2.64 ERA) and 2015's regular season (17-7). As noted, Dickey hasn't given up many hits lately (19 in his last 24 innings) but six have left the park. Expect him to clean that up here and I'll make the Under a 10* play. |
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05-06-17 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies UNDER 11.5 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: Neither the Diamondbacks nor the Rockies contended in 2016 (Colorado was only 75-87 and Arizona even worse at 69-93) but the Rockies are currently atop the NL West at 18-12, with the D'backs just a half-game back at 18-13. Arizona closed the gap to a half-game with last night's 6-3 win in Coors, led by Paul Goldschmidt's two HRs and season-high five RBI. The pitching matchup: A pair of left-handers take the mound on Saturday night, Patrick Corbin (2-3 & 2.29 ERA) for Arizona and Tyler Anderson (1-3 & 7.71 ERA) for Colorado. Corbin allowed just two hits over 6 1/3 scoreless innings in a no-decision against Colorado last Sunday and is 5-2 with a 4.48 ERA in 13 career starts against them (team is 10-3). Corbin comes in on a roll, having allowed just four ERs over his last three starts (1.86 ERA), while striking out 23, against just four walks, in 19 1/3 innings. Anderson has to be happy that April is over. The team actually split his six starts last month, despite him posting a 7.71 ERA, 1.58 WHIP and .303 BAA. He gave up a season-high six runs in five innings (allowed three HRs) but escaped with a no-decision against Arizona in his last start on April 29. Speaking of HRs, he's allowed nine in his 30 1/3 innings this season. Anderson has three no-decisions against Arizona but has posted a 7.80 ERA and 2.09 WHIP in those outings (team is 1-2). The pick: The over may be tempting to some but Corbin comes in pitching very well plus Anderson is not as bad as he's pitched so far. In fact, he allowed three ERs or less in 10 of his 12 home starts last season. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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05-05-17 | Spurs v. Rockets OVER 214.5 | Top | 103-92 | Loss | -102 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
San Antonio: Parker had a poor regular season but was having a rebirth in the playoffs, averaging 15.9 PPG on 52.5 percent shooting (including 57.95 on threes), despite a scoreless Game 2 against Memphis. However, it will now be up to Patty Mills to step up and lessen Parker's loss. "I can tell you one thing, that we're all ready," Mills said after Game 2. "We're all ready to step up and make an impact." San Antonio will also need LaMarcus Aldridge to step up. He was signed to a max contract prior to last season but sure hasn't played like a "max" player this postseason. He's averaging just 13.5 PPG on 43.3 percent shooting (down from 47.7% in the regular seaosn) and after making 41.1% on threes this year, he's 0 for 6 in the postseason. Houston: The Rockets have to be happy with a split in San Antonio but it's fair for them to be concerned over Harden's recent play. He made just 13 of 41 shots (31.7%), including 2 of 20 on threes, in the final two games vs. OKC. Here in this series, he averaged only 16.5 PPG while shooting 9 of 30 (30.0%), including 5 of 17 on threes. Harden has averaged 12 assists in the two contests but his overall numbers are a significant drop-off from the regular season, when he averaged 29.8 points, 9.0 rebounds and 11.8 assists in four games against the Spurs. The pick: The Rockets blitzed the Spurs in Game 1 but surrendered that momentum with a fourth-quarter collapse in Game 2 (SA outscored Houston 33-13 in the final period). One team will be up 2-1 after Game 3 but I'm not sure which one. However, the Rockets are averaging 116.9 PPG at home (including the playoffs). The winner of the first two games has scored 126 and 121 points plus the last two meetings of the regular season between these two teams saw those games average 220.5 points. Make the Over an 8* Play |
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05-05-17 | Predators v. Blues UNDER 5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: The Nashville Predators may be the No. 8 seed in the West but after a 2-1 Game 4 win, they are on the verge of advancing to the Western Conference finals for the first time in franchise history. The Predators won back-to-back games in Nashville to push St. Louis to the brink of elimination and up their postseason record to a stunning 7-1. The Blues scored just two goals in two games in Nashville (one in each) and can hardly count on a return home to serve as a panacea, as they are just 6-8 in their last 14 playoff games at Scottrade Center, including 2-2 this postseason. Nashville: Pekka Rinne was drafted by the Nashville Predators in the eighth round in 2004, back when the franchise was celebrating its first playoff appearance. Thirteen years, 11 NHL seasons and 564 games later, Rinne and the team that drafted him are a win away from reaching a place they've never been before. There were questions about the drop-off in Rinne's play entering the playoffs but he has posted a 7-1-0 mark, 1.33 goals-against average and a staggering .953 save percentage, the highest for a netminder with at least eight starts since 1982-83. Nashville's defensemen have played well in front of him plus have scored eight goals and added 14 assists in the team's eight playoff games. St. Louis: The Blues know they must reduce their time in the penalty box, after seven minors in Game 4 and six in Game 3. St. Louis must also improve its own power play, as the Blues are 1 of 9 with a man advantage against Nashville and a woeful 2 of 24 on the power play in this year's playoffs, to-date. One player the Blues can't blame is goaltender Jake Allen, who owns a 2.05 GAA and .936 SP. The pick: I expect nothing to change in Game 5. Allen will play well but the Blues just can't get much (if anything?) past Rinne. Nashville's 11 goals allowed in eight playoff games is the fourth-lowest total since the expansion era. Make the Under an 8* play. |
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05-05-17 | Blue Jays v. Rays OVER 7.5 | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: The Toronto Blue Jays have played in the last two ALCS matchups but have opened the 2017 season with the worst record in MLB at 9-19. The Blue Jays are still waiting he left side of their infield, 3B Josh Donaldson and SS Troy Tulowitzki, to return from injuries, as they head to Tampa for a three-game series with the 15-15 Rays. Donaldson (calf) has been sidelined since April 13 while shortstop Tulowitzki (hamstring) has been out since April 21, but both could return early next week. The Rays beat Miami 5-1 on Thursday and have won three of their last four games, allowing just four runs in those three victories. The Blue Jays took two of three from the Rays last week in Toronto, allowing just one run in each of the victories. The pitching matchup: Francisco Liriano (2-2 & 3.97 ERA) opens the series for Toronto, opposed by Tampa's ace, Chris Archer (2-1 & 3.43 ERA). Liriano beat the Rays last Saturday in Toronto, allowing just one run on four hits over five innings. The 33-year-old vet has had control issues this season, walking 15 batters in 22 2/3 innings but has allowed only one HR. He's 3-3 with a 5.49 ERA in 12 career appearances (11 starts / teams are 5-6) versus the Rays. Archer is win-less in his last three outings (0-2 with a 4.74 ERA / team is 1-2) but in his most recent start (April 30), he allowed just one ER on four hits in a no-decison against the Blue Jays (Toronto won 3-1). He is 6-4 with a 3.06 ERA in 21 career starts against the Blue Jays (Rays are 12-9). The pick: These teams have seen a lot of each other so far, with the Rays taking three of four from Toronto in an early series at Tropicana Field and the Jays winning two of three when they played at Rogers Centre last weekend. Toronto's recovered from a 1-9 start to go 8-10 its last 18 but the Jays are only 6-11 on teheroad, allowing 5.9 RPG. Meanwhile, the Rays are 10-5 at home, where they have averaged 5.20 RPG. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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05-04-17 | Jazz v. Warriors OVER 204.5 | Top | 104-115 | Win | 100 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: The Warriors fell just shy of covering in Game 1, winning 106-94 as 13-point favorites. However, Golden State controlled the flow in the series opener and sure didn't look rusty form an eight-day layoff. The Warriors got balanced scoring (all five starters were in double digits) and the lone negative was the team's poor three-point shooting (7 of 29 or 24.1%). However, the team held Utah star forward Gordon Hayward to just 12 points and Utah was almost as bad from three-point range as the Warriors, making only 9 of 29 (31.0%). Utah: The Jazz were never able to get their offense in gear, as Hayward and postseason standout Joe Johnson both struggled. In fact, center Rudy Gobert was the club's high scorer with 13 points. "We just didn't execute like we wanted to and missed some shots," Hayward said during postgame festivities. "So definitely not the way we wanted to start, but just one game. Have to figure something out and be ready for the next one." Hayward was just 4-of-15 from the floor and Johnson has just 11 points, on 4 of 10 shooting. George Hill had just seven points in the opener, after averaging 16.9 points in the series against the Clippers. Golden State: Curry suffered a left ankle injury during Game 1 (led with 22 points) and missed practice on Wednesday. However, he isn't expected to be hampered in terms of Game 2. He only played 21 seconds in the final quarter and insisted after the contest that it was "just routine maintenance" and "it's nothing to worry about." Small forward Kevin Durant scored 17 points in the opener and looks nearly fully recovered from the calf injury that caused him to miss two games in the first-round series against the Portland Trail Blazers. Green added 17-8-6, so don't worry about the Warriors in this one. The pick: No way either team shoots as poorly again from three-point range (see numbers above) and this over/under remains low for a Golden State team averaging 116.8 PPG in winning its first five postseason games. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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05-04-17 | Rockies v. Padres OVER 8 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: The Rockies lost 2-0 (13 inn.) on Sunday and then opened a three-game series in San Diego with the Padres on Tuesday with a 6-2 defeat. However, those Colorado bats woke up Wednesday night at Petco, pounding out 14 hits in an 11-3 win. Ian Desmond was the hitting star, going 3-for-5 with two HRs and three RBI. The loss ended San Diego's modest three-game winning streak and note that San Diego has now lost three of its last four home games, leaving them just 6-5 at home. The teams square off in the rubber game of this series with 17-11 Colorado sitting atop the NL West and the 12-17 Padres 5 1/2 games back of the Rockies, ahead of only the 11-18 Giants in the division. |
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05-03-17 | Angels v. Mariners OVER 8 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: The red-hot Angels pushed across two runs in the 11th inning for a 6-4 triumph in Tuesday's opener of the three-game set at Seattle. LA has now won seven of eight, as Albert Pujols recorded three hits on Tuesday, including the tie-breaking double in the 11th inning. Mike Trout extended his hitting streak to 15 games, matching his career best. It was LA's 11th comeback win of the season and the 15-13 Angels are now 4-0 against the Mariners this season. Los Angeles is 15-13 (3 1/2 back of Houston), while Seattle falls to 11-16, tied with Texas at the bottom of the AL West, seven games back of the Astros. The pitching matchup: Ricky Nolasco (2-2 & 4.13 ERA) will take the mound for LA and Hisashi Iwakuma (0-2 & 4.15 ERA) for Seattle. Nolasco has won back-to-back decisions, including a victory over Oakland last time out in which he allowed one run and three hits in 5 2/3 innings. Nolasco settled for a no-decision against Seattle back on April 8 (LA won 5-4), when he gave up two runs and four hits over six frames, and is 1-4 with a 4.33 ERA in six career starts versus the Mariners (teams are 2-4). Iwakuma remains winless in five starts to open the 2017 season and even more troubling, he has lasted less than six innings in each of his last three outings. He had a career-best 16 wins last season but a KW ratio that was more than 7-to-1 in 2014 (154-21!), is nearly even this season (12 strikeouts, 11 walks). Iwakuma is 9-5 with a 2.76 ERA in 20 career appearances (19 starts / Seattle is 11-8) against the Angels. He gave up one run and two hits in six innings of a no-decision back on April 9, a game LA won 10-9 with a seven-run 9th! The pick: The Angels are rolling (7-1 run) and I won't stand in their way here. However, I don't much trust Nolasco, who has had ERAs of 5.38, 6.75 and 4.42 in each of the last three seasons. He kept the ball in teh park against the Athletics in his last start but the veteran had served up seven HRs over his first four starts, allowing 27 hits over 22 2/3 innings with a 4.76 ERA. The Mariners have averaged 5.10 RPG at home and have allowed 4.20. The Angels have averaged 5.40 RPG in their last five wins and that makes the Over an 8* play. |
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05-03-17 | Rockets v. Spurs UNDER 215 | Top | 96-121 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: Expecting that the Rockets would severely test the Spurs in this series was not a stretch but few could have predicted Houston's stunning 126-99 beat down of the Spurs in Game 1 on Monday. The third-seeded Rockets were up by 30 at the half and were never threatened in the 27-point win. "You have to play like a champion, and that's what we did - that's just one day," Houston head coach Mike D'Antoni told reporters. "We need to repeat this three more times." The Spurs shot just 36.9 percent in Game 1 and had no answers on the defensive end. "We really have to step up, and it's hard to pinpoint something because we got outplayed in just about everything," San Antonio veteran guard Manu Ginobili told reporters. "We were not ready or attentive, and they were inspired - they played great." Houston: Harden had 20 points (modest but he was not needed) along with 14 assists. More importantly, Houston's frontcourt delivered in a way it hadn't in dispatching OKC 4-1. Ariza had 23 points, after he had averaged just 6.2 points in the five-game first-round series against the Thunder. Cent Clint Capela added 20 & 13 and Anderson 14. Anderson made four 3-pointers in Game 1 after being just 3-for-24 in the series against OKC. Houston launched 50 three-point shots, making 22. San Antonio: Kawhi Leonard was just 5-of-14 shooting while registering 21 points and 11 rebounds in the opener, his worst game of teh 2017 postseason. Power forward LaMarcus Aldridge was inept, with just four points on 2-of-7 shooting. PG Tony Parker was unable to follow up his strong effort (27 points on 11-of-14 shooting) in the closeout win over the Memphis Grizzlies and had just 11 points on 3-of-9 shooting. As I've noted this postseason, the Spurs rely way more on Leonard than most people realize. This is not a typical San Antonio team of the recent past. The pick: Still, the Spurs have a legacy and there is no better head coach than Popovich. What the Spurs still can do is play defense and that's the way they can get back in the series. Therefore, the Game 2 play is a 10* on the Under. |
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05-03-17 | Capitals v. Penguins OVER 5 | Top | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: The perennially underachieving Capitals lost the first two games at home against the Penguins and then with Game 3 seemingly in hand, allowed two quick goals (less than a minute apart) and were headed to OT. However, defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk's power-play goal 3:13 into overtime on Monday allowed the Caps to see a light at the end of the tunnel. What's more, Pittsburgh's Sidney Crosby was blasted with a cross-check to the head in the early part of Game 3 and the Penguins' transcendent superstar is in an all-to-familiar place; the NHL's concussion protocol (his history of concussions is well-chronicled,). Crosby has been ruled out for Game 4. Washington: The reigning Presidents' Trophy-winning Capitals (also won Presidents' Trophy last season) now have a chance to even the series, although a loss at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh would leave them on the brink of elimination. Former Penguin Matt Niskanen delivered the hit on Crosby (he received a five-minute major for cross-checking and a game misconduct) but told reporters that it was "absolutely not" his intention to injure his former teammate. Putting aside the Crosby incident, the Caps got a quality performance from goalie Braden Holtby. He was pulled in Game 2 but during the regular season, he had registered a 3-1-0 mark with one shutout, a 2.27 GAA and .922 save percentage in four games after being pulled. Yes, he gave up those two late goals but he stooped 30 of 32 shots in Game 3. Washington will need another effort like that. Pittsburgh: Crosby will sit but fellow former Hart Trophy winner Evgeni Malkin leads the NHL with 15 points (four goals, 11 assists) in eight playoff games and is no stranger to picking up the slack in the absence of "Sid the Kid." Fellow forward Phil Kessel is the next man up both figuratively and literally, as the 29-year-old's 12 points trailed only Malkin in the league entering Tuesday. The pick: Washington's 3.14 GPG ranks 3rd in the NHL and Pittsburgh's the top-scoring team at 3.44 per. A "typical" Washington road game averages 5.82 goals and a home game for Pittsburgh averages 6.34. Emotions will be running high in this one and I expect goals to be scored. Make the Over an 10* play. |
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05-02-17 | Jazz v. Warriors OVER 206.5 | Top | 94-106 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: The Utah Jazz won Game 7 at Staple Center to win their series with the Clippers, the first series win for the franchise since 2010. The team's reward is a date with the well-rested Golden State Warriors, who have not played since completing a four-game sweep of the Portland Trail Blazers back on April 24th. The extended rest has allowed Kevin Durant to fully recover from an injury that caused him to miss two games in the Portland series. Golden State won two of the three regular-season meetings, with Utah's win coming at Oracle Arena 105-99 on April 10th. However, that game probably needs an asterisk, as the Warriors rested Klay Thompson that night plus the Jazz were without Favors, Hood and star forward Gordon Hayward. Utah: Speaking of Hayward, his star shown brightly against the Clippers, as excluding his nine-minute Game 4 effort due to food poisoning, he averaged 27.2 PPG in the other six games. "You can see his confidence out there," Snyder told reporters of Hayward. "He's played through missed shots, contact, hot streaks, you name it. He's handled that with poise, and he's a heck of an offensive player. He's so versatile that he's hard to guard, and we try to use him in a way that allows him to shine in those situations." Snyder also received outstanding efforts in the first round from reserves Joe Johnson (15.7), Rodney Hood (10.4) and Derrick Favors (10.0 & 6.4). Golden State: Steve Kerr (back surgery complications) is expected to miss the series and it will be up to acting coach Mike Brown to get his players focused, as several of them were chirping that they would have rather played the Clippers than the Jazz due to the lack of nightlife in Utah. PG Stephen Curry averaged 29.8 points and made 19 three-pointers in the sweep of Portland and he averaged 26.3 points in three regular-season meetings against the Jazz. SG Klay Thompson averaged just 18.3 points on 38.8 percent shooting against the Trail Blazers and registered just one 20-point outing. The pick: "They're never in a rush," Curry said about the Jazz. "They usually run the clock down looking for the best shot. And then, God forbid you give up an offensive rebound, and you've got to do it all over again. That's where they kind of beat you down mentally with their pace." That was the case when the Jazz beat the Warriors 105-99 on April 10. It was the only time Golden State has been held below 100 points since March 11, and the result was the Warriors' lone loss in their past 20 games. As noted above, Golden State won the other two meetings but didn't reach its season scoring average (a league-high 115.9) in those games, either. So under? I think not. The Warriors know they can't let Utah dictate the pace and they rang up 119 and 128 points in the final two games of the series at Portland even with coach Steve Kerr absent and Durant making modest contributions. Make the Over a 10* play |
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05-02-17 | Angels v. Mariners OVER 7 | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
The pitching matchup: Matt Shoemaker (1-1 & 4.73 ERA) gets the ball for Seattle and James Paxton (3-0 & 1.39 ERA) for the Mariners. Shoemaker picked up his first victory of the season Wednesday versus the Athletics (in his fifth start), allowing two runs on seven hits and a pair of walks over five innings. He has struck out 20 in 17 1/3 innings over his last three appearances and permitted two runs or fewer four times but he has managed only one quality start. Shoemaker is 4-4 with a 4.35 ERA in 11 career stats against Seattle (team is 7-4). Paxton did not allow an earned run in his first three starts of 2017 but then allowed five at Oakland on April 20. However, he regained his dominant form Wednesday at Detroit, allowing only four hits while striking out nine in seven scoreless innings to win for the third time in his last four turns. He has posted a 39-6 KW ratio for the season. Paxton is 3-2 with a 2.17 ERA in seven career starts against the Angels (team is 4-3). |
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05-02-17 | Blues v. Predators OVER 5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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05-01-17 | Capitals v. Penguins UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 107 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
analysis by 12 pm et |
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05-01-17 | Raptors v. Cavs OVER 208.5 | Top | 105-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: The Raptors and Cavs meet for the second straight postseason. The teams met in the Eastern Conference finals last year, with Cleveland winning in six games. However, many (most) will remember that the Cavs totally dominated the Raptors in their four victories, winning by 31, 21, 38 and 26 points. The Raptors will get get another crack at the defending champs one round earlier this spring. The second-seeded Cavaliers completed a four-game sweep of the Indiana Pacers in the first round while the third-seeded Raptors had their troubles with the Bucks (tied 2-1), before winning Games 4, 5 and 6. Toronto: The Raptors developed a stronger defensive identity with the acquisitions of P.J. Tucker and Serge Ibaka during the regular season and limited the Bucks to an average of 86 points while winning the final three games of their first-round series. Those additions will give Toronto better defensive options against LBJ and Kevin Love this time around. Offensively, the Raptors will need more from PG Kyle Lowry, who was held to an average of 14.3 PPG in the first round (averaged 22.4 in the regular season), while shooting just 28.1 percent on threes. Center Jonas Valanciunas came off the bench in the final three games against the Bucks and while Toronto won all of those games he didn't start by going with a three-guard lineup (Powell averaged 15.0 PPG in the three consecutive wins), he figures to return to the starting lineup against the Cavs. Cleveland: The Cavaliers went 10-14 down the stretch in the regular season (going back to March 1) and defense was the team's problem. The team's defensive woes continued against the Pacers, as Cleveland became the first team since the 1995 Houston Rockets to sweep a first-round series while allowing its opponent to score 100 or more points in each game. LBJ is logging more minutes than ever and averaged 43.8 in the first round. "King James" was his royal self against the Pacers, averaging 32.8-9.8-9.0, with Kyrie chipping in 25.3 PPG and Love 15.5 & 9.3. No other player averaged in double digits (Frye was the highest at 8.5 PPG). The pick: Toronto and Cleveland finished the regular season with identical 51-31 records but no one sees this as an "even" series. After all, the Raptors are 1-11 all time in Game 1 of playoff series, while the Cavs have gone15-1 against Eastern playoff teams at home dating back to the 2015 playoffs. It's true that Toronto has the best defensive numbers of the first round, holding Milwaukee to a league-low 93.2 PPG, by keeping the Bucks under 100 points four times in five contests. However, the Cavs are NOT the Bucks. Cleveland averaged 112.5 PPG against the Pacers (a franchise record for a playoff series) and averaged 13.5 three-pointers per game, even though neither Kyle Korver (5.3 PPG) nor J.R. Smith (6.8 PPG) got untracked from the perimeter. The defending champs haven't played in seven days and are rested, healthy and confident coming in. However, Cleveland ranked 22nd in defensive efficiency during the season and allowed 111 points per 100 possessions to Indiana, which was even worse than the Cavs' regular-season average. make the Over a 10* play. |
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04-30-17 | Cubs v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: A series between the Cubs and Red Sox was expected to draw a lot of interest and the atmosphere at Fenway Park has been electric for the first two games. The Red Sox won 5-4 on Friday night and the Cubs bounced back with a 7-4 Saturday afternoon. Now, it's a the rubber match of this series Sunday night on ESPN. The 13-10 Cubs are looking to win their fourth straight series, while the 12-11 Red Sox are attempting to avoid their third consecutive series loss. The pitching matchup: Kyle Hendricks (2-1 & 4.50 ERA) goes for Chicago and Boston will counter with Eduardo Rodriguez (1-1 & 3.12 ERA). Hendricks won the NL ERA title last year in his most recent start, looked much more like that pitcher than in his first three starts (11 ERs in 16 innings for a 6.19 ERA). He pitched six scoreless innings Tuesday at Pittsburgh, allowing four hits and two walks in a 1-0 victory. Hendricks never has faced the Red Sox and is 2-3 with a 3.94 ERA in nine career interleague starts. Rodriguez allowed nine hits and seven walks in his first two starts of 2017 (six ERs in 10 1/3 innings for a 5.23 ERA) and pitched out of the bullpen on April 19th. However, he was outstanding in his return to the rotation last Sunday at Baltimore, holding the Orioles to one hit over six scoreless innings with seven strikeouts. Actually, Rodriguez is holding opponents to a .172 average but he served up three HRs in his first two starts of the season. The pick: Rodriguez looked good in his last outing but he also allowed a career worst-tying five walks against the Orioles. In fact, Rodriguez has walked a team-worst 12 batters (17 1/3 innings) through four games (three starts) this season. That doesn't bode well vs. the dangerous Chicago lineup. Yes, Hendricks was sharp in his last outing but his first three (6.19 ERA) leave some questions still to be answered. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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04-30-17 | Wizards v. Celtics UNDER 215 | Top | 111-123 | Loss | -107 | 15 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: Many felt that Boston was the weakest No. 1 seed in many years and even possibly, the weakest No. 1 seed ever. Boston promptly lost the first two games of its first round series to the 41-41 Chicago Bulls but received a reprieve, when Chicago PG Rajon Rondo broke his thumb. That 'broke' Chicago's momentum and 'backs,' as the Celtics became just the fourth team in NBA history to win a best-of-seven series after losing the first two games at home by winning four straight. The Celtics now move on to face the fourth-seeded Washington Wizards, who are coming off beating the Atlanta Hawks in six games. Those teams each 'held serve' in the first four games of their series, before Washington won a close Game 5 at home. The Wizards ended that series in style, taking Game 6 in Atlanta, 115-99. The Washington Wizards and Boston Celtics split four games (home teams won all meetings) during the regular season and these teams truly don't like each other. The games were nasty with that nastiness even threatening to pour off the court, as members of the Boston police stood in the hallway between the locker rooms after one game. Washington star SG Bradley Beal had his team arrive for a Jan. 24 meeting in all black clothes.However, now it's time to play. |
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04-29-17 | Angels v. Rangers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: Mike Trout and Albert Pujols each homered in LA's 6-3 Friday victory and the Angels will take a five-game winning streak into the middle contest of their three-game series against the host Texas Rangers on Saturday. Trout and Pujols are the two biggest reasons for LA's recent success. Trout has reached base safely in 24 of 25 games this season and is batting .372 with four HRs, seven RBI and 11 runs during his eight-game hitting streak. Pujols is batting .371 with a HR and 10 RBI during his 12-game hitting streak plus moved past Ken Griffey Jr. and into 14th all-time with 1,838 RBI ,one shy of Ted Williams for 13th (pretty sweet company, huh!). While the Angels are now 13-12, Texas, AL West champs in 2016, are just 10-13 and in last-place, five games back of first-place Houston. The pitching matchup: Jesse Chavez (2-3 & 4.13 ERA) will take the mound for the Angels, opposed by Texas ace Yu Darvish (2-2 & 3.03 ERA). Chavez allowed one run, four hits and four walks while striking out seven in six innings of a 2-1 victory over Toronto on Monday. He currently owns the lowest ERA among regular Los Angeles starters and has recorded two straight quality starts, including a 3-0 setback at Houston on April 17. Chavez is 2-4 with a 6.00 ERA in 17 games (four starts / 5.24 ERA, going 2-2) versus Texas after allowing five runs in 4 1/3 innings of an 8-3 loss on April 12. Darvish allowed two runs, five hits and one walk while striking out eight in Sunday's 5-2 victory over Kansas City. He pitched eight innings for the first time since 2014 prior to Tommy John surgery. Darvish is 8-2 with a 3.48 ERA in 14 starts against Los Angeles (Texas is 11-3), after striking out 10 over seven scoreless innings of an 8-3 road victory on April 13. The pick: Angels' starting pitchers have surrendered fewer than three runs in 13 of their last 14 games and as noted, currently owns the lowest ERA among regular Los Angeles starter. It's hard to ignore Darvish's excellent career numbers vs. LA (see above) plus both Darvish and Chavez are coming off strong starts heading into this second of a three-game series at Globe Life Park. Make the Under a 10* play |
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04-29-17 | Rangers v. Senators UNDER 5 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -121 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: The Rangers owned the most road wins of any team in the regular season, plus took two of three at Montreal in eliminating the Canadiens in the first round, but the Senators were able hold serve at home and win Game 1 of this series, 1-0. Ottawa now hopes to take a 2-0 lead in their best-of-seven Eastern Conference semifinals series in Saturday's Game 2. Ottawa star defenseman Erik Karlsson's goal from a near-impossible angle was the difference in the series opener, the Senators' seventh one-goal decision in as many playoff games. NY Rangers: New York needs to focus on a better start, as Henrik Lundqvist faced 21 shots in Game 1's first 20 minutes, which ended 0-0. It marked his highest save total ever for one period in the postseason. “Obviously we want to play fast, but we can’t rush it up with one guy trying to break through, give it away and have them come back and shove it up our (butt),” forward Mats Zuccarello told the New York Post. “It’s important for us to be patient with the puck against their trap." Ottawa: Karlsson missed five games down the stretch because of a pair of stress fractures in his heel but he once again delivered with his first goal of this postseason to go along with his six assists. "I think our fans have to appreciate what we have here," head coach Guy Boucher marveled. "It's more than a star right now. That's what I think is unbelievable. He's a skilled player that became a star and now he's a winner." That also applies to goaltender Craig Anderson, who has now won his last four against New York with a staggering .984 save percentage. The pick: “I think we just have to forget about this,” ex-Ottawa center Mika Zibanejad said. “We were down in the Montreal series, as well, 2-1. It’s 1-0. A lot of hockey left to play.” However, New York's leading goal scorer Chris Kreider remains stuck on just one assist through seven playoff games. Lundqvist and Anderson on at the top of their games and the Under isa 10* play. |
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04-28-17 | Oilers v. Ducks UNDER 5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 125 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: The Anaheim Ducks opened their series with the Edmonton Oilers having not lost in regulation over an 18-game span (15 wins and three OT losses). However, that streak came to a screeching halt in Wednesday's Game 1 at Honda Center, as the Oilers won 5-3, seizing a 1-0 lead in this second round series. Edmonton was 31-43-8 last season with its 70 points representing the third-fewest in the entire NHL. However, the Oilers went 47-26-9 this season and their 103 points were only two fewer than Pacific Division-leader, Anaheim. Edmonton: Hart Trophy candidate and the league's scoring-leader, Connor McDavid, was the player Anaheim intended to focus on in this series. However, second-year winger Leon Draisaitl had a goal and three assists in Edmonton's Game 1 win and scored six goals in five regular-season games between the teams. Defenseman Adam Larsson matched his point total from his previous 23 games by scoring two goals and setting up another on Wednesday. "He's definitely not Bobby Orr, but (Wednesday) he sure looked good on that last one, skating," head coach Todd McLellan told reporters, referring to Larsson's game-winning goal. Fellow Swedish blue-liner Oscar Klefbom, who has recorded 11 points (two goals, nine assists) in his last 11 contests, extended his point streak to three games after notching an assist in back-to-back matches. Anaheim: Captain Ryan Getzlaf scored and set up a goal in Game 1 to give him 34 points (eight goals, 26 assists) in his last 23 overall contests, while increasing his total to nine (two goals, seven assists) in six meetings with Edmonton. After dealing with injuries to All-Star Cam Fowler and Sami Vatanen, Anaheim's defense corps has another on its hands as coach Randy Carlyle deemed Kevin Bieksa (club-best four assists) "doubtful" for Game 2 because of a lower-body injury. Vatanen has missed two games with an upper-body injury, with Carlyle telling the Orange County Register that the playoff situation "has not allotted us enough time for him to be 100 percent." The pick: The Oilers may be in the playoffs for the first time since 2006 but allowing Edmonton to take a 2-0 lead in this series, may all but doom the Ducks. Anaheim's Game 1 loss was the team's first defeat of the postseason and first regulation loss since March 10. However, I feel that the Under is the safest bet. Make it a 9* play. |
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04-28-17 | Celtics v. Bulls OVER 203.5 | Top | 105-83 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: The Celtics have climbed out of an 0-2 'hole' with three straight wins over the Bulls, after losing the first two games at home during this series. The visiting team was 4-0 SU & ATS in this series before the Celtics won Game 5 at the TD Garden on Wednesday, seizing a 3-2 series advantage. Starting guards Thomas and Bradley each scored 24 points in Wednesday's contest, while Chicago's star Jimmy Butler Jimmy Butler was held to a series-low 14 points. As all (most?) must know, this series turned when Chicago PG Rajon Rondo fractured his right thumb. Boston: Isaiah Thomas was full of praise for his backcourt partner, after Bradley made 11-of-19 shots in Game 5. "Even the stat sheet doesn't explain how good of a player he is sometimes," Thomas told the media of Bradley. "When he's not scoring or rebounding, he's doing a lot of things to help out everybody else on this team, whether that be help-side defense, whether that be making the right play on offense. He’s a complete basketball player." Center Al Horford was a non-factor in the first two games of the series (both Boston home losses) but he's averaging 18 points, nine rebounds, 6.3 assists and two steals in Boston's three consecutive victories. Chicago: Jimmy Butler averaged 26.0 PPG while the Bulls took the first two games of this series but after going in Game 5, he's now averaging 20.3 PPG on 38.5 percent shooting in Chicago's three straight losses. Butler took just two shots during Boston's decisive 20-4 run in the fourth quarter, prompting head coach Fred Hoiberg to insist that the team needs to get its All-Star the ball a bit more down the stretch. Some good news for Chicago in Game 5 was that Dwyane Wade had his best outing since returning from an elbow injury late in the regular season, finishing with 26 points, 11 rebounds and eight assists. The pick: Boston ended Wednesday's game on a 20-4 run, despite seeing Thomas shoot 6-for-17 from the floor, including 1-of-10 from three-point range. The Celtics hope to carry the momentum of their Game 5 victory Wednesday into Game 6 and why not? Fred Hoiberg insisted that Rondo playing in tonight's game was "a long shot." In this do-or-die contest, the Bulls will need more from Butler and Wade. Is Wade even capable of another effort like the one in Game 5? As for Butler, he's attempted zero free throws in Game 3, 23 in Game 4 (made 19!) and one in Game 5. I've had Boston the last two games but I'm not ready to "go back to the well" again in this Game 6. Expect Butler to have a huge game and after 87- and 95-point efforts at home, look for the Bulls to make the Celtics score to win this one. The Over is an 8* play |
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04-28-17 | Angels v. Rangers UNDER 9.5 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: The 10-12 Texas Rangers avoided a series sweep and snapped a two-game skid with a 14-3 win over Minnesota Twins on Wednesday night. They now welcome the LA Angels to Globe Life Park for a three-game weekend series. The Angels are coming off a 2-1 home win Thursday night over the Oakland A's, giving them a four straight wins and five of seven, to reach 12-12 on the season. The pitching matchup: Tyler Skaggs (1-1 & 4.44 ERA) gets the nod in the opener for LA, opposed by the Rangers' Nick Martinez (0-0 & 1.29 ERA). Skaggs has pitched well in his last two starts, blanking Kansas City on four hits over seven innings in a no-decision on April 16 and following up by allowing just two runs and seven hits in seven frames of a win over Toronto. That's quite an improvement over his first two 2017 starts, when he allowed five ERs in each outing (8.71 ERA). He escaped with a no-decision against Texas earlier this month, despite allowing five runs on eight hits in five innings. That outing leaves him 2-1 with a 6.20 ERA in five career starts versus the Rangers (Angels are 3-2). Martinez will be making just his second start of 2017, in place of the injured A.J. Griffin (ankle). He defeated Kansas City 2-1 on April 22nd, allowing just one run on four hits over seven innings for his 14th career victory. Martinez is 2-3 with a 2.51 ERA in eight career appearances (six starts / Rangers are 2-4 in those starts with a 2.92 ERA) against the Angels. The pick: Actually, both teams come in playing fairly well, as both enter the series having won five of seven. Skaggs has had two straight good outings, in keeping with an LA starting staff which has now not allowed more than two earned runs in 12 of its last 13 games, compiling a 2.10 ERA in that span. Martinez looked sharp in his 2017 debut (see above), so the Under is a 10* play. |
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04-27-17 | Raptors v. Bucks OVER 195 | Top | 92-89 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: The Raptors went to a three-guard lineup in Game 4 and the team has won back-to-back contests to seize a 3-2 series advantage. Norman Powell saw just 21 minutes of action through the first three games (two appearances) of the series but was inserted into the starting lineup and made all three of his three-pointers in a Game 4 win at Milwaukee. He then erupted Monday night at home, going 4-of-4 on three-pointers en route to 25 points in Game 5. DeRozan added 18 and Lowry 16 in the backcourt as well, with Toronto playing its best game of the series in a 118-93 win. The Raptors now have back-to-back double-digit wins after losing by 27 at Milwaukee in Game 3, leaving the Bucks trying to rediscover that Game 3 form in an effort to avoid losing their eighth consecutive playoff series dating to 2001.! Toronto: The Raptors now lead the series but have been far from consistent. DeRozan has been up and down in the series, especially at Milwaukee, where he went 0-for-8 from the floor in Game 3 before shooting 12-for-22 in Game 4. Lowry has rebounded from an ugly Game 1 effort but is still under his regular season averages the last four games, at 17.3 points and 5.3 assists. Forward Serge Ibaka was 13-for-39 from the floor over a three-game span but then scoried 19 points on 8-of-10 in Game 5. Any sure just which Toronto team shows up here? Milwaukee: "You can talk about it but you’ve got to go out there and you’ve got to play. You've got to know how it feels to get your (expletive) kicked, right? And that’s what happened (Monday)," head coach Jason Kidd told reporters. "Being a young team, we were in that position in Game 3 (winning big). We have to understand what took place so we know what we have to do come Game 6." Milwaukee is looking to overcome a recent history of embarrassing Game 6 failures at home, which includes a 120-66 loss to Chicago in 2014 and an 83-69 setback against Atlanta in 2010. However, the team's lone star, Giannis Antetokounmpo, is averaging just 16.5 points at home in the series, compared to 27.3 on the road. The pick: Postseason success hasn't exactly been a hallmark of the Toronto Raptors, or for the Milwaukee Bucks. Not sure I trust either team in this spot but I like Toronto's three-guard lineup plus there is little reason for Antetokounmpo to be struggling to score at home. This total is fairly low considering the Raptors are averaging 106.9 PPG on the season (including the playoffs), while the Bucks have averaged 105.3 PPG at home, despite that 76-point effort in Game 4. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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04-27-17 | Toronto Blue Jays - Game #2 v. St. Louis Cardinals - Game #2 OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: The St. Louis Cardinals and Toronto Blue Jays will try to complete a three-game IL series, after getting rained out Wednesday, by playing a doubleheader on Thursday. The Jays won 6-5 (11 innings) on Tuesday but last night's game was rained out. Wednesday's scheduled starters (Latos and Martinez) will go in Game 1 with the second game following. Toronto entered the series ranked 29th in the majors in scoring but eked out a 6-5 victory in 11 innings Tuesday night. The win gets Toronto to 6-14, after opening 1-9. The Cards are just 9-11 and already are "looking up" at their hated rivals, the Chicago Cubs. The pitching matchup: Casey Lawrence (0-2 & 7.56 ERA) will start Game 2 for Toronto and Adam Wainwright (1-3 & 6.27 ERA) takes the hill for St. Louis. Lawrence gave up a grand slam to Andrelton Simmons in the third inning of his first career start this past Saturday against the LA Angels, taking a 5-4 loss. He allowed five runs on eight hits in 6 1/3 innings before exiting after 97 pitches. Lawrence walked just three batters on Saturday after issuing five free passes in two combined innings of relief against Tampa Bay on April 8-9. Wainwright hit a two-run HR in Friday's 6-3 win over Milwaukee to help him snap a three-game losing skid. He also pitched well in the victory, striking out a season-high nine in five innings to subdue the Brewers. That said, Wainwright has not looked like the Wainwright of old, with that 6.27 ERA, a 1.93 WGHIP plus opponents BAA of .366! |
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04-27-17 | Rangers v. Senators OVER 5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 31 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: The Rangers ousted Atlantic Division champion Montreal in six games for the right to face Atlantic runner-up Ottawa, which also won its first-round series in six games over Boston Bruins. The Rangers posted a league-high 27 road wins this season and took two of three games in Montreal in the first round. Meanwhile, Ottawa won all three road games at Boston in its first round series. NY Rangers: New York eliminated Montreal despite getting one assist each from two of its leading goal scorers, Chris Kreider and J.T. Miller, In fact, Mika Zibanejad's four points represented a team high. However, that speaks to the Rangers' depth. A real positive was the late arrival of leading overall scorer Mats Zuccarello, who scored twice in the Game 6 clinching win over Montreal. In the end though, the Rangers will likely pin their hopes on goalie Henrik Lundqvist. After a 2-0 shutout of Montreal in Game 1, he surrendered seven goals in back-to-back losses. However, the veteran then allowed just four goals in three straight New York wins. Ottawa: The Senators just finished a tightly contested series against Boston, one which that featured six one-goal games. Senators captain Erik Karlsson made a surprising revelation following the series with Boston. He was playing with two hairline fractures in his left heel, but it certainly did not appear to hinder the star defenseman, who collected six assists against the Bruins and played nearly 42 minutes in Game 5. Forward Bobby Ryan followed up a 13-goal regular season by scoring four times against the Bruins, and with Clarke MacArthur back in the lineup after missing most of the past two seasons due to concussions, Ottawa can counter New York's outstanding balance with four solid lines of its down. The pick: Lundqvist comes in hot but as we saw in Games 2 and 3 against Montreal, he can be beat. As noted, the Rangers are an outstanding road team and so far, have averaged 3.02 goals in all road games this season, Ottawa goalie Craig Anderson allowed three goals in half of the six games against Boston and don't be surprised if this first game sees both teams being able to put the puck in the opposing net. Make the Over an 8* play. |
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04-26-17 | Twins v. Rangers UNDER 9 | Top | 3-14 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: The Twins opened this three-game series at Texas having lost six of their previous seven games but have beaten the Rangers 3-2 (Mon.) and 8-1 (Tue.). These back-to-back losses for Texas has but a sudden halt to the four-game winning streak the team had when it opened the new week. Texas now looks to avoid getting swept in Arlington by the Twins for the first time in 41 years on Wednesday night! However, more trouble may be looming for the Rangers, as the Twins have now won seven of the last eight meetings between the teams dating to last season. The pitching matchup: A pair of left-handers take the mound tonight at Globe Life Park, Hector Santiago (2-1 & 2.19 ERA) for Minnesota and Cole Hamels (1-0 & 2.77 ERA). Santiago continued his string of strong outings this season on Friday, recording his third straight quality start, earning a 6-3 win over Detroit. He has a 17-4 KW ratio through four starts, with an 0.97 WHIP and ,217 BAA. He's made 17 starts against the Rangers in his career, going 7-4 with a 4.15 ERA (teams are 10-7). Cole Hamels is off his best performance this season on Friday, allowing one run on three hits in eight innings of a 6-2 win over Kansas City. Not that Hamels had pitched all that poorly in his first three, but Texas had lost each of those three starts. That's quite a change from last season, when the Rangers were 24-8 in Hamels' 32 starts (plus-$1469, which ranked 4th-best among all starters). He's faced the Twins just five times in his career without much success, going 1-1 with a 6.92 ERA (teams are 2-3). The pick: Santiago is off to a great start for the Twins in 2017 and Hamels finally looked like his "old self" in his last outing. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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04-26-17 | Hawks v. Wizards OVER 211.5 | Top | 99-103 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: John Wall led the Wizards with 32 points in Games 1 and 2, as Washington took a 2-0 lead in this series. However, the Hawks rebounded at home with wins of 116-98 and 111-101, meaning this is now a best-of-three series as the teams return to Washington for Game 5. The Wizards still own home-court advantage but after watching the previous two games in Atlanta, it is fair to say that momentum lies with the Hawks. Atlanta dominated Game 3 and then placed seven players in double figures in Game 4's win, while Washington's offense remained too top-heavy. Bradley Beal scored 32 points and John Wall, who played 40 minutes, had 22 points and 10 assists. Atlanta: Paul Millsap had 19 points, nine rebounds, seven assists and two steals in Game 3 and PG Schroder scored 18, despite three fouls in the first quarter. Millsap leads the Hawks this postseason with 23.5 PPG (8.8 RPG), while Schroder averages 23.3 & 6.3 APG . However, a welcome sight in Game 4 was the play of Dwight Howard, who through the first three games was averaging just 6.0 PPG (had taken a total of only 15 shots), scoring 16 points while adding 15 rebounds. "Obviously, it was his best game," Hawks coach Mike Budenholzer told reporters of Howard. "We needed that extra boost. He certainly brought it. I thought his defense, his activity on the boards, his second- and third-efforts getting rebounds. We need more of that every night, every possession. When he’s like that, I think it can help carry his teammates and move us forward." It's also noteworthy for Atlanta that SF Taurean Prince is averaging 13.3 points on 63.9 percent shooting in the series after posting 5.7 points on 40 percent shooting in the regular season. Washington: The Wizards are searching for answers after getting beaten on the interior and relying too heavily on guards John Wall and Bradley Beal for offense in Games 3 and 4. "Basically, what I see is two very good basketball teams, evenly matched, fighting for their playoff lives," Washington hesad coach Scott Brooks told reporters. "We’re the fourth and fifth seed. The series is tied. It’s basically the first to two now." Washington was outscored in the paint by a combined 104-64 in Games 3 and 4. Washington center Marcin Gortat (8.0 & 11.8 for the series) has measured up fairly well against Howard but while he grabbed 18 rebounds in Game 4, he managed just two points. That can't happen again. Also, starting forwards Porter and Morris must play better, after the two combined to average 19.0 points and 11.0 rebounds for the two games in Atlanta.The pick: The Wizards controlled the first two games at home but it was a different story in Atlanta, with the Hawks emerging as the more aggressive team and rolling to a pair of wins by an average of 14 points. Washington was one of the top three-point shooting teams during the regular season but the Wizards are hitting a playoff-low 29.7 percent from long range after four games. They were also outscored in fast-break points in Game 4, despite Wall's up-tempo presence. However, there is no place like home. Expect Washington to be back "on its game" here at the Verizon Center which means a high scoring game. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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04-25-17 | Grizzlies v. Spurs OVER 186.5 | Top | 103-116 | Win | 100 | 33 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: The Spurs completely shut down the Grizzlies in Games 1 and 2 of this series, holding Memphis to exactly 82 points in each of those first two games, winning by margins of 29 and 14 points. However, the Grizzlies returned home knowing it had beaten the Spurs in both games this past season played in Memphis. The Spurs looked lethargic in a Game 3 Memphis win and then the teams played an excellent Game 4, with the Grizzlies edging the Spurs 110-108 in OT. Kawhi Leonard scored the Spurs' final 16 points in regulation to force overtime (had 43 points, overall) but Memphis center Marc Gasol buried the game-winner in the final second. Memphis: Gasol made the game winner but it was PG Mike Conley who went toe-to-toe with Leonard in keeping the Grizzlies in the game. Conley set a franchise postseason record with 35 points in the Game 4 triumph and is averaging 24 points and 7.8 assists in the series. Don't dismiss Gasol though, as added 37 points and 18 rebounds in the two Memphis wins or the play of Randolph, inserted in the starting lineup for Games 3 and 4, while scoring 33 points and grabbing 19 rebounds. However, depth is an issue for Memphis, as the 40-year-old Vince Carter is the team's fourth-leading scorer at just 8.3 PPG in this series. San Antonio: Some think that Leonard, not Westbrook or Harden, is the league MVP and he's surely made a strong case for that honor in this series. It's not just that he set a career playoff-high 43 points in Game 4 but that it was the third time in the series that he had either matched or exceeded a previous personal best. Tony Parker, who looked washed up for most of the regular season, added 22 points in Game 4, two nights after he didn't score and wasn't credited with an assist in San Antonio's Game 3 loss. Leonard doesn't get enough credit for basically carrying this team, which is not the same multi-talented group of past San Antonio editions. The pick: The first two games of the series went under and then the last two went over. With the series returning to San Antonio one could conclude we are back on the under 'train' but it's my belief that the Grizzlies "found themselves" in these last two games and will not be an 82-point team in Game 5. The total is again very low and the Over is a 10* play. |
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04-25-17 | Thunder v. Rockets OVER 223 | Top | 99-105 | Loss | -107 | 32 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: The OKC/Hou Series was billed as a showdown between Westbrook and Harden. However, Harden has a much better supporting cast and as such, the Rockets host Game 5 with a chance to close out the Thunder 4-1. Westbrook was not very sharp in Game 1 (shot 6 of 23 , including 3 of 11 ion threes), as the Rockets won 1118-87. He has recorded three consecutive triple-doubles since but while all three games have been close (decided by 4, 2 and 4 points), the Rockets have manged to take two of those three. Harden was slowed by an ankle issue in Game 4 (16 points on 5 of 16 shooting, including 0-7 on threes!) but reserve big man Nene made 12 of 12 from the floor to lead the Rockets to a 113-109 win on Sunday (Nene had 28 & 10). Westbrook had 35-14-14 on Sunday but in the nine minutes he was on the bench, Houston outscored OKC by 18 points! Oklahoma City: Westbrook was all testy when a reporter asked center Steven Adams about just that fact in the postgame conference. "I don't want nobody to try and split us up," he interjected. "We all one team. Regardless if I go to the bench, or Steven's on the floor, or if I'm off the floor, we in this together. Don't split us up. Don't try to make us go against each other -- try to make it Russell and the rest of the guys, or Russell against Houston. I don't want to hear that." However, subpar series performances from shooting guard Victor Oladipo (11-point average on 38.6 percent shooting), Adams (8.3 points, 6.3 rebounds) and backup center Enes Kanter (six points, 2.3 rebounds), speaks for itself. Houston: Nene was not just 12 of 12 from the floor on Sunday but is an amazing 23-of-25 from the floor in the series. Nene is a veteran of 620 regular-season starts and survived a bout with testicular cancer in 2008. "He is my mentor, believe it or not," Harden told reporters. "I watch him every single day do some work. He's in the weight room. He's doing a lot of the right things to get his body and mind right to go out there to compete at a high level every single night." Harden is averaging 33.0-6.0-7.8 in the series but has gotten solid play from fellow starting guard Beverley in the first two games (scored 36 points) and then after he's fallen off in the two games at OKC, backup SG Lou Williams has averaged 20.3 points with a low of 18 over the past three contests. The pick: Plain and simple. OKC is little more than a one-man show. The center duo of Adams and Kanter plus SG Oladipo have been flat-out flops this series plus note that SF Andre Roberson was an embarrassing 2-of-12 from the free-throw line in Game 4 and is 2-for-17 in the series. Expect Harden to play better in Game 5 and Houston has three other perimeter players also contributing, as Eric Gordon (15.0 PPG) joins Beverley and Williams in that Houston backcourt. That said, expect Westbrook to go down swinging. Make the Over an 8* play. |
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04-25-17 | Reds v. Brewers UNDER 9 | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: The Brewers won 11-7 last night in the series opener against Reds, as Eric Thames hit two HRs. Thames now has 10 HRs, matching the team record for April, and the Brewers still have five games left this month. Seven of his HRs have come against Cincinnati, which has lost four of five meetings with Milwaukee. The Reds fell to 10-10 with the loss and the Brewers pulled within one game of .500 with the win (10-11). The pitching matchup: Scott Feldman (1-1 & 2.38 ERA) will take the mound for the Reds on Tuesday, opposed by the Brewers' Zach Davies (1-2 & 8.24 ERA). Feldman pitched mostly but this marks his fifth start of 2017 and while the team is just 1-3 in his four starts, he's pitched reasonably well (1.19 WHIP along with that 2.38 ERA). He has made five career starts versus the Brewers, going 2-2 with a 3.46 ERA (teams are 2-3). Davies lost his first three starts a year ago but finished 11-7 with a 3.97 ERA. However, he's off to another slow (or should I say, brutal?) start here in 2017. He's allowed 18 ERs over 19 2/3 innings through his first four starts, giving him not only an awful 8.24 ERA but a 1.98 WHIP, with opponents batting .345 against him. He's 1-2 with a 4.28 ERA in six career starts vs. the Reds (team is 2-4). The pick: It was an 11-7 slug-fest on Monday (teams combined for 18 hits and there were five errors in the game, as well) but as noted, Feldman has acquitted himself well in this year's starting rotation. As for Davies, there is no way to go but up and as also noted earlier, he recovered from last year's poor start to pitch well, as the team was 15-9 over his final 24 starts, after Milwaukee lost his first four. The Under is an 8* play. |
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04-24-17 | Warriors v. Blazers OVER 219.5 | Top | 128-103 | Win | 100 | 16 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: The Warriors are going to make sure Kevin Durant is 100 percent healthy before putting him back on the floor now that the team owns a 3-0 lead in this first round series with the Blazers. However, it's not just KD, as Golden State is working through injuries to Shaun Livingston (finger) and Matt Barnes (foot) plus is without head coach Steve Kerr. After falling behind 2-0, the Trail Blazers looked energized by playing in front of their home fans on Saturday night. They built up a 17-point lead but the Warriors used a 19-1 second-half run to get the crowd out of the game. "They took it up another level," Portland headcoach Terry Stotts told reporters of Golden State. "They defended very well, created turnovers. Our offense kind of stagnated a little bit, they pushed it out in transition as well as they have so far in this series. I think they made three threes during the stretch. It’s what that do, they put a run on you." Golden State: Curry's 34 points led the way in Golden State's 119-113 win on Saturday, with Thompson chipping in 24. Green had a quiet Game 3 but he's averaging almost a triple-double for the series (11.3-10.7-8.7). Then there is reserve center JaVale McGee, who scored 14 points on 6-for-8 shooting in Game 3, while grabbing four rebounds, all in just 16 minutes. McGee has made 16 of 19 shots in the series and is averaging 11.7 points and 4.7 rebounds in just 13 minutes a game! Portland: Center Jusuf Nurkic (leg fracture) missed the first two games but Portland received a noticeable boost from the big man when he returned for Game 3. However, he's nowhere near 100 percent and his effectiveness diminished the longer he stayed on the floor. "Obviously (Nurkic) had a big impact on the game," Stotts told reporters. "We got off to a good start. Obviously, when he was on the floor he made a difference with his passing, his rebounding. He didn’t necessarily look to score but I thought he complemented everybody out there very well." Nurkic reported soreness in the leg after the contest and is not expected to play in Game 4. The pick: The Blazers were competitive in Games 1 and 3, when Lillard and McCollum combined to score 75 points (Game 1) and 63 points (Game 3). However, when they combined to score just 23 points in Game 2 (on 9 of 38 shooting), the result was a 110-81 Golden State blowout. The Warriors are facing more than just injuries to important players. Kerr sat out Game 3 due to chronic back pain and he will not coach tonight. He is consulting with doctors but told reporters he could miss the remainder of the postseason if his back does not improve. That said, the Warriors are used to being without Kerr after he sat out half of the 2015-16 campaign while dealing with complications and pain following back surgery. Through everything, the Warriors have averaged 116.7 PPG in opening a 3-0 lead and Portland's only chance is to outscore them in Game 4. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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04-24-17 | Nationals v. Rockies UNDER 12 | Top | 4-8 | Push | 0 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: The Washington Nationals beat the Mets 6-3 last night art Citi Field on ESPN, giving them a sweep of that three-game series. The sweep extended the team's winning streak to seven straight. Washington began its winning streak with a home victory over Philadelphia before registering three-game sweeps on the road against Atlanta and the New York Mets. At 13-6 and in first-place in the NL East, the Nats now head to Colorado on Monday for a four-game series in Coors Field against the Rockies, who are also a first-place team, leading the NL West at 13-5. The Rockies have won six of their last seven contests and are coming off their first three-game home sweep of San Francisco since May 2002. Colorado outscored the Giants 20-3 over the final two contests and improved to 6-3 at Coors Field to open the 2017 season. The pitching matchup: Jacob Turner (1-2, 6.57 ERA in 2016) will make his 2017 debut for Washington and will be opposed by Colorado's Tyler Anderson (1-3 & 7.32 ERA) who is not exactly off to a great start this season. Turner was drafted ninth overall by Detroit in 2009 but has not lived up expectations. He's 12-27 with a 5.09 ERA in the majors with four different teams, spending the 2016 season with the White Sox. He signed a minor-league contract during the offseason with Washington and is being called up from Triple-A Syracuse to make his Washington debut (he owns a 2.61 ERA in three starts for Syracuse). Anderson has had all sorts of early-season struggles, as he has surrendered four or more runs in each of his first four starts, losing the last three. He has yet to complete six innings and lasted five on Wednesday, when he yielded four runs (two ERs) on six hits in a setback against the Dodgers in Los Angeles. The pick: At first blush, this may look like an over with two shaky starters. After all, Washington is MLB's second-highest scoring team at 5.17 RPG (is also averaging 5.11 RPG on the road) and as always, Colorado puts runs on the board at home, averaging 4.89 RPG in its nine home games so far. However, a closer look reveals that the Rockies had averaged a modest 3.00 RPG in their first six home games, prior to scoring 26 runs in sweeping the Giants at Coors this past weekend. As for Colorado's Anderson, he's found Coors to be a friendly park, posting a 3.36 ERA in 13 home starts during his brief career. Let's add that the Colorado bullpen which finished the 2016 season with a MLB-high ERA of 5.13, opens the week with the NL's lowest ERA, at 2.76. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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04-23-17 | Yankees v. Pirates UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 105 | 6 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: The Yankees exploded for 11 runs in the final four innings to earn an 11-5 win on Saturday at Pittsburgh. The Pirates won 6-3 on Friday night, so the teams get set for the rubber match of this three-game IL series on Sunday afternoon from PNC Park. The Yankees are off to a solid 11-6 start, while the Pirates have yet to get going, sitting at 7-10. The pitching matchup: Jordan Montgomery (1-0 & 4.22 ERA) makes his first career start against the Pirates while Ivan Nova (1-2 & 2.25 ERA), the ex-Yankee, will face his former team for the first time. Montgomery picked up his first career win in his second career start on Monday, when he held the Chicago White Sox to three runs and seven hits in six innings. Montgomery struck out seven over 4 2/3 innings in his debut on April 12 but had just four last Monday, while inducing eight groundouts on Monday. Nova struggled for the Yankees in 2015 and the first half of 2016 before coming over to Pittsburgh. He had made 118 starts with the Yankees but was having trouble sticking in the rotation with a 5.07 ERA at the time of the trade. However, with the Pirates, he posted a 3.06 ERA in 11 starts, going 5-2 (team won seven of his first eight starts, before losing his last three). He gave up fewer home runs, fewer walks and in general seemed to much more closely resemble the pitcher he had been early in his career, when he won 16 games for the Yankees in 2011. The pick: Montgomery will face a Pittsburgh lineup that has totaled 11 runs in the first two games of the series but that's after managing just three in the previous three games. I wouldn't be surprised if Nova was sharp against his ex-teammates and will make the Under |
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