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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-16-17 | Louisiana Tech v. Western Kentucky UNDER 61.5 | Top | 23-22 | Win | 100 | 77 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs will travel to L.T. Smith Stadium in Bowling Green, Ky. to take on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers this Saturday night. Both teams have opened 1-1. La. Tech opened with a 52-24 home win over Northwestern St. but was no match for Mississippi State last Saturday at home, losing 57-21. La. Tech took a quick 9-0 lead early in the 1st quarter but couldn’t fight back after 36 unanswered points by Mississippi State gave them a 36-9 lead with :41 seconds left in the 2nd quarter. Western Kentucky opened with a 31-17 win over Eastern Ky but then lost 20-7 at Illinois this past Saturday, as a six-point road favorite. The schools have met just seven times with La.Tech leading 4-3. However, after beating Western Ky 55-52 at home during the 2016 regular season, the Bulldogs lost 58-44 at Western Ky in the C-USA championship game.La. Tech: The Bulldogs averaged 44.3 PPG last season but Skip Holtz' team may struggle some on offense this year. La. Tech is averaging 36.5 PPG (47th) but QB J’Mar Smith has completed only 48.3% of his passes for 2 TD sand an INT while averaging 208.0 passing YPG (note: last year's starter Ryan Higgins passed for 4,617 yards with a 41-8 ratio). The team's running game is averaging a respectable 186.5 YPG to rank 56th. Defense is a problem though, as the Bulldogs have allowed 40.5 PPG (121st).Western Ky: The Hilltoppers are coming off seasons of averaging 44.4, 44.3 and 45.5 PPG. However, just four offensive starters are back. Yes, one of them his QB Mike White, who threw for 4,363 yards with a 37-7 ratio, but after two games, he's got just one TD pass in 74 attempts, while averaging a modest 251.0 YPG. Forget those 40-plus PPG averages of the previous three seasons, as the Hilltoppers are averaging only 19.0 PPG (109th) here in 2017. The good news for Western Ky is the defense is a allowing just 18.5 PPG (47th). The pick: At the moment, it sure looks as if the Hilltoppers miss head coach Jeff Brohm (he's now at Purdue), as Mike White and the offense is not "hitting on all cylinders" for new head coach Mike Sanford. Then again, the Western Ky defense looks very good. La. Tech is scoring (36.5 PPG) but allows even more (40.5 PPG). These two schools were the preseason favorites to return to the C-USA title game but at this stage of the season, both teams have plenty of kinks to work. The two meetings last year in which the finals were 55-52 and 58-44 keep this total WAY higher than it should be. Make the Under an 8* play.
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09-15-17 | Illinois v. South Florida OVER 55.5 | Top | 23-47 | Win | 100 | 53 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: Illinois and South Florida are both 2-0 to open the 2017 season, although it's the lesser-known school from Tampa which is the ranked team, at No. 21 in the latest AP poll. Illinois is off a 3-9 season in Lovie Smith's first year as head coach and the Fighting Illini haven't had a winning season since their 20-14 bowl win over UCLA in 2011 allowed them to finish 7-6. Meanwhile, Willie Taggert rejuvenated the USF program, going 8-5 in 2015 and 11-2 in 2016, including an exciting 46-39 OT win over South Carolina in the Birmingham Bowl. Taggert used his success to land the Oregon job but Charlie Strong brings solid credentials to the program, despite his lack of success at Texas. USF had its game last week at Connecticut cancelled, due to complications with Hurricane Irma. Illinois: Ilinois goes after its third straight victory to open the season and Lovie Smith will be returning to 'the scene of the crime,' as Tampa is home to the NFL’s Buccaneers, which was his previous job before landing at Illinois. The Fighting Illini opened with an unimpressive 24-21 home win over Ball State but then as a six-point home 'dog to Western Kentucky, won 20-7. Lovie's always been known as a defensive coach and through two games, Illinois is allowing 14.0 PPG (28th) on 309.5 YPG (48th). However, the team's offense is another story. Illinois averages a woeful 258.0 YPG (123rd), due to anemic passing attack with ranks 120th, averaging 126.0 YPG. In the most important offensive stat of all, points scored, Illinois is T-100th at 22.0 PPG. USF: Taggert may be in Oregon but he left behind QB Quinton Flowers for Charlie Strong. Flowers threw for 2,812 yards with a 24-7 ratio last year, while rushing for 1,530 yards and another 18 TDs. He's not off to a Lamar Jackson-like start in 2017 (398 passing yards with 4 TDs and 1 INT plus 137 rushing yards with just 1 TD) but he has led the Bulls to 42 and 31 points. USF ranks 44th in scoring (36.5 PPG) and 51st in total yards (443.5 YPG). The defense, which allowed 31.6 PPG in 2017, is off to an excellent start, allowing 19.5 PPG (50th) on 308.0 YPG (42nd). That said, the competition has not been all that tough. The pick: The Fighting Illini have proven to be offensively challenged so far but USF's early defensive numbers are a bit of a mirage. As for Illinois' defense, it gets a severe test here from USF, which has scored at least 30 points in 19 straight games! I believe USF will dictate this contest and with a total in the mid-50s (note: the lowest final score for an USF game in 2017 was 60 points!), the Over is an 8* play. |
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09-15-17 | Dodgers v. Nationals OVER 9 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -137 | 19 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: The Dodgers still boast the best record in the majors (94-52), despite losing 16 of 17 from Aug. 26-Sep. 11. That slump has allowed the 89-57 Nationals, who have already clinched the NL East, to close within five games of Los Angeles atop the National League standings. The Dodgers did lower their magic number to clinch the NL West to seven by capturing the final two contests of their three-game set in San Francisco, their first series victory in just under three weeks. These two NL 'heavyweights' open a three-game series tonight in the nation's capital. The pitching matchup: Alex Wood (14-3 & 2.81 ERA) gets the nod for LA and Edwin Jackson (5-5 & 4.14 ERA) for Washington. Wood opened 11-0 after 16 starts (Dodgers were 13-3), while posting a 1.56 ERA. However, over his last eight starts, he's 3-3 (team is 5-3) but more worrisome is his 5.10 ERA in that span. Wood hasn't faced Washington since 2015 and is 3-3 with a 2.78 ERA over nine starts (teams are 5-4). Jackson joined the Nationals in mid-June and after some solid outings, has labored through two September starts, going 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA. The former Dodgers farmhand is 4-3 with a 4.15 ERA in 10 career games (eight starts / teams are 4-4) versus the Dodgers. The pick: Wood is battling a sternum injury and that is more than likely the cause of his recent woes. As for Jackson, the Nats have to be concerned about him allowing nine ERs on 12 hits over just nine innings of his last two starts. Plenty of firepower in both lineups and the Over is an 8* play. |
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09-14-17 | Mariners v. Rangers UNDER 10.5 | Top | 10-4 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: The Mariners and Rangers meet Thursday in the final contest of this four-game series at Arlington. Seattle followed Tuesday's 10-3 win with an 8-1 victory on Wednesday, after Texas had won Monday's opener, 5-3. The Seattle win (Mariners are just 4-5 their last nine) keeps them just 3 1/2 games behind the Twins for the AL's second wild card spot, while Texas dropped four games back after getting outscored 18-4 in back-to-back losses the last two nights. Heading into tonight's series finale, Seattle leads the season series against Texas 10-5. The pitching matchup: Felix Hernandez (5-4 & 4.28 ERA) returns from his second shoulder injury of the season and will take the mound for Seattle, while Andrew Cashner (9-9 & 3.19 ERA) gets the nod for Texas. Hernandez has missed the past six-plus weeks with his latest injury, with his most-recent appearance being a no-decision against the Rangers back on July 31. Hernandez hasn't pitched like a 'King' in 2017, as he's allowed 16 HRs in only 13 starts (his career worst is 23 for an entire season!). The veteran has pitched more than six innings on just three occasions and hasn't posted a single 10-strikeout performance, which is hard to believe considering he has 2,333 Ks in his career. Hernandez is 1-0 with a 3.55 ERA in two starts against the Rangers this year (team is 2-0) and 19-23 with a 3.93 ERA in 52 career starts (Mariners are 23-29). Cashner has pitched well over his last three starts, going 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA. He settled for a no-decision against the New York Yankees in his last outing, although he allowed just one run on four hits over seven innings (Texas lost 3-1). Cashner is 1-1 with a 2.60 ERA in three starts against Seattle this season (Texas is 1-2) and 1-3 with a 3.26 ERA in seven career appearances (six starts / teams are 2-4). The pick: The Mariners are hoping Hernandez and James Paxton (slated to return from a pectoral injury on Friday) can provide a boost as they try to chase down Minnesota for the American League's second wild-card spot. Here, the Mariners need "the old King Felix" to show up. Let me also note that Cashner, despite his modest 9-9 record, is having the best season of his career. He has gone 6-2 with a 2.49 ERA over his last 11 starts (Texas is 7-4) to lower season ERA from 3.87 to 3.19, sixth-lowest among AL qualifiers. "He's been the most consistent guy out there," Texas manager Jeff Banister said. "He's missed a little time but has progressively gotten better throughout the year. He's been a stabilizer in that rotation. He's pitched like a front-end-of-the-rotation pitcher for us." Make the Under a 10* play. |
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09-13-17 | Astros v. Angels OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 105 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
The set up: Thanks to Justin Verlander, Houston won a good old fashioned pitcher's duel last night, 1-0 over the Angels. The win snapped a four-game losing streak for the AL West leaders and reduced their magic number to five. The loss hurt the Angels as they fell to two games back of Minnesota in the battle for the American League's final playoff berth. There has been a pitching change for tonight as the Astros will be going with Michael Fiers rather than Lance McCullers (arm fatigue). My play here still stands. The pitching matchup: The move from McCullers to Fiers doesn't impact my play here because neither was going to match what we saw from Verlander (eight shutout innings of one-hit ball) last night. Fiers has allowed a total of 14 runs in his last two starts and the Over is 6-2 when he starts on the road. A 5.08 ERA on the road shows that it's not the offense that's responsible for those Overs as Fiers clearly hasn't pitched well either. Angels starter Tyler Skaggs isn't exactly in top form either coming into tonight as he's allowed a total of 19 runs in his previous four starts. One of them was against Houston and he allowed five runs in five innings. The pick: Neither starting pitcher figures to perform well tonight and thus it's going to be a very different matchup compared to last night. Houston leads all of baseball (by a wide margin) in runs per game scored on the road at 6.1. Thus, it should come as no shock that the Over is 41-24-7 in all of their road game this season. The Angels aren't nearly the offensive juggernaut that Houston is, but they do have Mike Trout in their lineup and figure to score at least a few runs off Fiers. Make the Over an 8* play. |
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09-12-17 | Dodgers v. Giants UNDER 6.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 0 m | Show |
The set up: The Dodgers now own the dubious distinction of being the first team in MLB history to have both won and lost 15 of 16 games in the same season. Their losing streak has hit 11 games following last night's 8-6 setback at the hands of the Giants. Despite being huge favorites with Clayton Kershaw starting tonight, the NL West leaders are basically "unplayable" at this point as they have to show me some semblance of getting back on track. The Giants are having a disastrous season as they are 36 games back of Los Angeles and have been one of the worst teams in baseball for most of 2017. The pitching matchup: Even the great Kershaw hasn't been immune to his team's recent futility. His last start saw him last only 3 2/3 innings and he allowed four runs as the Dodgers lost 9-1 to the Rockies as -305 favorites! But I fully anticipate him bouncing back here. The Dodgers lone win in the last 17 games came with Kershaw on the mound as he threw six innings of shutout ball. Kershaw is clearly still one of the best pitchers in baseball and on the road his record is 8-1 to go along with a 1.45 ERA and 0.893 WHIP. San Francisco goes with Johnny Cueto here and he at least should give the team a "fighting chance." Cueto has a solid 3.21 ERA in 16 career starts vs. Los Angeles. The pick: Due to a three-plus hour rain delay, last night's game didn't end until after 2 am PT! That should give a huge edge to the pitchers in this one. Not that Kershaw needs it; he's beaten the Giants 20 times in his career and has 1.62 ERA while doing it. It also helps that the Giants have scored the second fewest runs in all of baseball. Cueto is off one of his best starts of the year though and as mentioned before, should keep his team in it. The Dodgers have scored one run or less in five of their last eight contests. The Under seems like a logical call here, so make it a 10* play. |
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09-10-17 | Giants v. Cowboys UNDER 48 | Top | 3-19 | Win | 100 | 227 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: The Dallas Cowboys will host the New York Giants to cap off a busy "Opening Day" of NFL action as the two long-time NFC East rivals meet in AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas) for Sunday Night Football on NBC. Here's the big news and I'll copy it directly from reports. Federal judge Amos Mazzant granted a request by the NFL Players Association on Friday for a temporary restraining order and preliminary injunction to prevent the implementation of the six-game suspension for Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott. Elliott was already eligible to play in Sunday's season opener against the New York Giants, but his suspension for violating the league's personal conduct policy was to begin Monday. With the injunction granted, Elliott likely will be able to continue playing as the legal process plays out. NY Giants: New York rebounded from three consecutive losing seasons to earn its first postseason berth since 2011, sparked by a defense that led the NFC with an average of 17.8 PPG allowed, almost 10 points per game less than it allowed in 2015 (27.6). The Giants also went from last in the entire NFL in yards allowed (420.3 per game) to 10th at 339.7 YPG. QB Eli Manning threw for 26 TDs against 16 INTs, while reaching 4,000 yards (4,027) for the sixth time in his career, despite a running game that averaged only 88.3 YPG (29th) and produced a league-worst six rushing TDs. The Giants added two pieces to the passing game by signing six-time Pro Bowler Brandon Marshall and making rookie TE Evan Engram their first-round draft pick out of .OBJ is coming off huge season, catching a career-high 101 passes for 10 TDs but his status remains unknown for this contest, after a preseason injury. Dallas: Rookies Elliott (led NFL in rushing with 1,631 yards) and Prescott (23 TDs against only four INTs for a 104.9 QB rating) led Dallas to last year's 13-3 (10-6 ATS) record. Now, both seem to be ready for a sophomore encore. the Dallas D allowed 343.9 YPG which ranked 14th but more importantly, held opponents to just 19.1 PPG, fifth-best in the NFL. However, the Cowboys will be missing three defensive linemen due to suspension on Sunday night.. The pick: The Cowboys were 7-1 at home last season but that lone loss came to the Giants 20-19 in Week 1 at Dallas, Then, New York held Dallas to 260 yards in defeating the Cowboys 10-7 in Week 14 at MetLife Stadium, completing the season sweep. Note that Elliott was held to 162 yards on the ground in two meetings against the Giants in 2016. If anyone in the league can "tough-talk" the Cowboys, it could be the Giants. New York held Dallas's powerful offense in check both times last year (to 19 and 7 points!) but also note, the Giants scored just 20 and 10 points, themselves. Make the Under an 8* |
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09-09-17 | Middle Tennessee State v. Syracuse UNDER 77 | Top | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 75 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders opened their 2017 season with a 28-6 loss at home to Vanderbilt and now visit the Syracuse Orange this Saturday at the Carrier Dome in search of their first win. Syracuse is home for a second straight weekend, romping 50-7 over Central Connecticut State to open its 2017 season. MTSU went 8-5 overall in 2016 (5-3 in C-USA play), including a 52-35 loss in the Hawaii Bowl to the home-standing Rainbow Warriors. Dino Babers used back-to-back bowl appearances at Bowling Green to get the head job at Syracuse but in his first season (2016), finished just 4-8 (2-6 in the ACC). The two schools are meeting for the first time as FBS members. Middle Tennessee State: The Blue Raiders were shut down against Vanderbilt, falling behind 14-0 after the first quarter. MTSU didn't crack Vandy's end zone until the fourth quarter, well after the outcome had been decided. The offense was held to a modest 215 yards. QB Brent Stocksrtill, who threw for over 4000 yards (30-9 ratio) in 2015 and for 3233 yards in 2016 (31-7 ratio), was held to 166 yards with one TD and one INT. MTSU ran for only 49 yards on 26 attempts. Syracuse: The Orange totally out-classed Central Connecticut State, opening up a 31-0 advantage at halftime, before coasting the rest of the way. The Orange had a dominant 586-167 advantage in total offense and racked up 34 FDs to Central Connecticut’s eight. QB Eric Dungey was outstanding, completing 28 of 36 passes for 328 yards with three TDs (he also ran 51 yards and two scores on the ground). The pick: The Syracuse defense had no problem with Central Connecticut State but let's not forget that the Orange allowed 38.6 PPG. Yes, 10 starters return but the MTSU offense will be a much tougher test. The Blue Raiders were shut down by the Vandy defense but this team did average 39.7 PPG last season. The 'catch' here though is, the over/under number is currently in the mid-70s. MTSU struggled with Vandy's D (at home!), so while the Syracuse D is much 'softer,' this is a road game. Note that MTSU enters on a 3-19 run in road openers. Make the Under an 8* play. |
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09-07-17 | Rockies v. Dodgers UNDER 6.5 | Top | 9-1 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: LA's 'free-fall' has been sudden and dramatic. Los Angeles was outscored 19-2 during a three-game home sweep at the hands of wild card-leading Arizona D'backs, trimming its lead in the NL West to 10 1/2 games. While the Diamondbacks have won 13 straight games, the Dodgers have lost six in a row and 11 of their last 12 contests. Colorado missed a chance to distance themselves from the pack in the NL wild-card race by going just 3-6 on its just-completed nine-game homestand. Colorado has fallen 7 1/2 games back of the red-hot D'backs for the No. 1 wild card spot and now is looking over its shoulder at the Cards (two back) and Brewers ( 21/2 games back). Can Colorado gain some separation on the road as it begins a crucial eight-game road trip on Thursday with the opener of a four-game series against the major league-best but suddenly struggling 92-47 LA Dodgers. The pitching matchup: Jon Gray (6-4 & 4.26 ERA) steps to the mound for Colorado and Clayton Kershaw (16-2 & 1.95 ERA) for LA. Gray has been very solid by allowing three runs or less in each of his last eight starts but is just 3-3 in that span (Rockies are only 3-5). Gray is 2-3 with a 3.75 ERA in seven career starts (Rockies are 4-3) against Los Angeles, including a no-decision on April 8 in which he allowed one run over 5 1/3 frames despite yielding four hits and three walks. Kershaw makes just his second start since missing over one month with a lower back strain. He showed no ill effects from the injury in his return, as he allowed two hits and struck out seven over six scoreless innings of a 1-0 triumph at San Diego on Friday (LA's lone win in the team's last 12 games). Kershaw yielded four runs over six frames in a loss at Colorado on April 8 but won his next three starts against the Rockies in 2017, allowing a total of four runs over 20 innings, to improve to 21-6 (3.05 ERA) lifetime versus the Rockies in 36 starts (Dodgers are 27-9). The pick: Kershaw has been un-hittable in 2017, as he'll take a 12-game winning streak into this contest (last loss was back on May 1, with the Dodgers going in 16-0 his starts over that span). Kershaw has allowed just 103 hits in 147 1/3 innings with a 175-24 KW ratio, an 0.86 WHIP and a BAA of .193! Meanwhile, Gray enters pitching well too, a job made easier by the LA bats suddenly going 'silent.' The Dodgers have lost five straight at home, while scoring just four runs (note; LA has averaged just 2.2 5 RPG in losing 11 of 12). Make the Under a 10* play. |
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09-07-17 | Twins v. Royals OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: Cleveland's 14-game winning streak has helped them all but run away and hide in the AL Central at 83-56, leaving the 72-67 Tins and the 69-69 Royals battling for a wild card spot. The Twins currently hold down the No. 2 AL wild card spot, while the Royals are one of SIX teams lurking behind Minnesota, no more than three games behind (Royals are 2 1/2 back). The two division rivals open a pivotal four-game series on Thursday in Kansas City. The Royals return home off a 4-2 road trip, while the Twins come to KC after losing two of three at home to the Royals last weekend, before opening the new week by losing two of three at Tampa Bay. The pitching matchup: Kyle Gibson (9-10 & 5.33 ERA) gets the nod for Minnesota and Sam Gaviglio (3-5 & 4.62 ERA) for KC. Gibson tossed six scoreless innings in a 17-0 rout of the Royals last Friday, his third consecutive win. He's allowed only three runs over 19 2/3 innings during his winning streak (1.37 ERA), dropping his ERA below 5.40 for the first time this season! He's pitched reasonably well against KC in his career, posting a 6-4 record and 3.53 ERA in 14 starts (1team is 10-4). Gaviglio was claimed off waivers from Seattle last week and will be thrust into a big spot in his Royals debut. He makes his first start in the majors since losing four straight starts with the Mariners from June 24-July 18 (allowed 17 ERs over 23 innings in that span for a 6.65 ERA). He will be seeking his first win since beating the Twins in Minnesota on June 14 (his only career start vs. the Twins), although note that Gaviglio surrendered three HRs in that win. The pick: I'm not sure what KC may have seen in Gaviglio in claiming off waivers? I see a 6.65 ERA in his last four starts while with the Mariners. As for Gibson, he owns a 1.61 WHIP and .300 BAA to go along with his 5.33 ERA on the season for the Twins. Make the Over an 8* play. |
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09-06-17 | Indians v. White Sox UNDER 9 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: The Indians made it a 'lucky' 13th straight win last night, rolling over the AL-worst White Sox, 9-4. Cleveland can now match the franchise record of 14 consecutive victories (set by last season's team) when they take on Chicago in the third contest of this four-game series on Wednesday. Jose Ramirez hit two HRs in Tuesday's win (13 straight wins is the majors' longest in 2017), making him 19-for-38 with seven HRs over his last nine games. The White Sox have dropped six of their last eight and are a horrific 29 games below .500 at 54-83. The pitching matchup: Carlos Carrasco (13-6 & 3.67 ERA) starts for Cleveland and Reynaldo Lopez (0-2 & 6.06 ERA) for Chicago. Carrasco is 3-1 over his last five outings (team is 4-1) and has allowed two runs or less in four of those starts. He is just one victory away from matching the career high he set in 2015 (14-12) and 17 strikeouts shy of his second campaign with 200. Carrasco has gone 2-0 with a 1.33 ERA in three starts (Indians are 3-0), improving his carrer record to 5-9 with a 4.82 ERA in 20 career appearances (19 starts / team is 8-11) against Chicago. Lopez makes his fourth start of the season for the White Sox. He seeks his first win since Sept. 29, 2016, against Arizona while with the Nationals. Lopez was acquired by the White Sox last December as part of a trade that sent outfielder Adam Eaton to Washington. He was called up from Triple-A on Aug. 11 and placed on the disabled list due to a strained back eight days later. Lopez was reinstated Friday and took the 3-1 loss that night against the Tampa Bay Rays, allowing three runs, five hits and a walk while striking out a season-high seven over six innings. The pick: Cleveland has outscored opponents 93-25 during its winning streak, has won 17 of its past 19 games away from Progressive Field (9-0 on its current 11-game road trip that ends Thursday) and the Indians now lead the AL Central by 11 games over the Twins. Cleveland prices are now 'sky-high' but I'll look to the Under to be an 8* play. |
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09-05-17 | Astros v. Mariners UNDER 9.5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: The Astros were just 10-17 from Aug. 1-30, but have now scored 35 runs on 46 hits during their five-game winning streak, after they opened a 10-game road trip witha 6-2 win last night in Seattle. Houston owns the American League's best record (84-53), as well as a commanding 13 1/2-game lead in the NL West. Seattle has now dropped six of its last nine contests and sits three games behind Minnesota for the AL's second wild-card berth plus has three teams between themselves and the Twins..
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09-04-17 | Cubs v. Pirates UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-12 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: The Chicago Cubs returned from the All Star break to go 14-3, catching and passing the Brewers in the NL Central. Chicago did hit a small rough patch right after that but now, even with a Sunday 5-1 loss to the Braves, owns a run of 12 wins in their last 16 games. Chicago opens a four-game series Monday in Pittsburgh with an overall 32-16 since the break and a 3 1/2 game lead in the NL Central over Milwaukee. Pittsburgh made a little 'noise' for itself right after the All Star break by winning seven of eight (reaching 49-48) but since sitting at 58-58 after play on Aug. 11, has gone 7-14 to sit seven games under .500 at 65-72. Chicago's three-game sweep of Pittsburgh last week at Wrigley Field by a combined 27-5, effectively took the Pirates out of consideration for a shot at the postseason. The Pirates have fallen 10 1/2 games back in the NL Central and are 7 1/2 games back of the Rockies, who own the final wild card spot. The pitching matchup: Jake Arrieta (14-8 & 3.36 ERA) has easily been Chicago's pitching star since the break and opens this series, opposed by Pittsburgh's Chad Kuhl (6-10 & 4.54 ERA). Arrieta is 6-1 with a 1.59 ERA since the break, with eight quality starts in nine outings. He takes the mound having won his last four decisions. Arrieta beat the Pirates 4-1 n his last outing (Sep 29), allowing two hits and two walks over six scoreless frames. That leaves him 11-5 with a 2.81 ERA in 20 career starts against the Pirates (teams are 14-6). In contrast to Arrieta, Kuhl has lost two straight starts and three of his last four, failing to get through six innings in any of those four outings. Kuhl lost to the Cubs last time out (opposite Arrieta) and is 0-4 with an 11.07 ERA in six career meetings (team is 2-4). The pick: Kuhl and Arrieta opposed each other last Tuesday in Chicago, with each pitching five shutout innings before Chicago scored three in the six of a 4-1 Cubs win. Hard to ignore Arrieta's 1.59 ERA since the break but also note that Kuhl owns a 3.44 ERA over his past 12 starts. Make the Under an 8* play. |
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09-03-17 | Red Sox v. Yankees UNDER 7 | Top | 2-9 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: The NYY Yankees lost 10-0 at home to the Red Sox on Friday but rebounded with a 5-1 Saturday win. The rubber match of this three-game series is set for Sunday night (on ESPN) and New York needs a win, not only to stay within striking distance of Boston in the AL East (a win and the Yanks will be 3 1/2 back but a loss drops them 5 1/2 back) but the Yankees also need to be very much aware that the Twins are just one game back in the battle for the top wild card spot plus New York is only a modest 2 1/2 games clear of the AL playoff 'cut line.' The Red Sox are heading back to Boston for a nine-game homestand beginning Monday and you know a 5 1/2 game lead would be much sweeter than a 3 1/2 ga.me lead. The pitching matchup: Boston will send ace Chris Sale (15-6 & 2.77 ERA) to the mound in this series finale, as the Yankees counter with Luis Severino (11-6 & 3.14 ERA), who I believe most regard as New York's best starter in 2017. Sale ended a three-start win-less streak with a dominating effort at Toronto this past Tuesday, when he struck out 11 without walking a batter and scattered three hits over seven scoreless innings of a 3-0 Boston win. He may be the AL's Cy Young front-runner, as he leads the majors with 264 strikeouts and is 10 away from matching his career high, set with the Chicago White Sox in 2015. Sale owns a 1.69 career ERA against the Yankees but is a modest 4-3, plus his teams are only 5-6 in his 11 all-time starts against the Yanks. Severino is fourth in the AL with 192 strikeouts and struck out nine over 6 2/3 innings against Cleveland on Monday but could not come away with a win. He owns a 1.10 WHIP and .220 BAA in 2017 but the Yanks are a modest 15-11 in his starts, giving him a moneyline mark of minus-$5 (you read that correctly!). Severino is just 1-4 with a 4.98 ERA over six career starts vs. Boston (team is 2-4) and his worst start of the season came at home against Boston on Aug. 12, when he was ripped for 10 runs -- eight earned -- over 4 1/3 innings. |
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09-02-17 | Louisville v. Purdue UNDER 68 | Top | 35-28 | Win | 100 | 123 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: The Louisville Cardinals, ranked 16th in the AP's preseason poll, will open the 2017 season against the Purdue Boilermakers, led by new head coach Jeff Brohm. The game will be played at at Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis), the home of the Colts. It's only fitting that Brohm's first game as Purdue's head coach comes against his alma mater, where he was Louisville's starting QB for two seasons in the early 1990s. Louisville: Bobby Petrino can coach (forget about the off-field stuff) and his Cardinals were 9-1 through 10 games last season (lone loss at Clemson by six points) and ranked No. 3, before imploding. However, a 36-10 loss at Houston was followed by an embarrassing 41-38 loss at home to Kentucky (as a nearly four-TD favorite) to end the regular season. Louisville was then man-handled by LSU, 29-9 in the Citrus Bowl. However, the team's late-season collapse didn't prevent QB Lamar Jackson from winning the Heisman (it shouldn't have). Jackson passed for 3,543 yards and 30 TDs last year while rushing for 1,571 yards and another 21 scores! Jackson lost a few key contributors but he's so talented, don't expect too much of a drop-off in 2017. That said, don't expect a second straight Heisman, either. Purdue. Brohm come to Purdue from Western Ky, where he turned the the Hilltoppers into the nation's highest-scoring team at 45.5 PPG in 2016. David Blough is Purdue's returning starter at QB but Brohm says he likes three of his QBs and would not be afraid to use all of them with Blough struggling with a sore shoulder (he suffered a strained right shoulder during an August 12 scrimmage). To be competitive, Purdue needs to score, as its defense ranked 117th in the nation last year, allowing 38.3 PPG. The pick: Brohm was an asistant at Western Ky when Petrino was hired as the Hilltoppers head coach. Petrino has said he is thrilled that Brohm landed a Power-5 conference coaching position. He expects his former assistant will turn around a Purdue program that has gone just 9-39 the past four seasons with only three victories in Big Ten conference play. However, that may be wishful thinking right now. Louisville has the best QB on the field (in the country?) but did lose a lot of key players, including most of the offensive line. It may take Louisville a few games to jell. The Boilermakers have lost nine of their last 10 non-home games and are a near-4 TD underdog here, so expect a loss. However, don't expect Petrino to run up the score and thisov er/under number is too high. Make Louisville/Purdue a 10* Under play. |
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09-02-17 | Michigan v. Florida OVER 44.5 | Top | 33-17 | Win | 100 | 120 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: Two CFB superpowers open Saturday in this game at "Jerry's House" in Arlington, Texas, with No. 11 Michigan taking on No. 17 Florida. This marks the first time these two legendary programs have met in regular season, although Michigan has won all three bowl meetings, including a 41-7 beat-down of an injury-riddled Florida offense in the Citrus Bowl following the 2015 season. Michigan: Jim Harbaugh took over Michigan in 2015, inheriting a team which was just 5-7 the previous year. His first team went 10-3, including that previously-mentioned bowl win over Florida and then last year's team again went 10-3. However, that doesn't tell the entire story. Michigan opened 9-0 and was ranked No. 2 in the nation when it lost 14-13 at Iowa. An unimpressive 20-10 win over Indiana followed and then Michigan lost a controversial double-OT at Columbus to Ohio State, 30-27. The Wolverines capped its season with a 33-32 loss to FSU in the Orange Bowl. Harbaugh's an intense coach and will be looking to quickly establish his team after last year's poor finish (three losses in its last four games). Harbaugh can easily rub people the wrong way. He refused to release his team's playing roster until Wednesday, declined to formally announce his quarterback and then went overboard by insinuating Florida coach Jim McElwain was the one playing games by initially not revealing his team's signal-caller. Harbaugh can play all the "head games" he wants but he needs to replace 10 starters off last year unit, which was one of the nation's best (allowed 14.1 PPG on just over 262 yards per). I'm still not quite sure who will be Michigan's starting QB for most of this year. Florida: Jim McElwain begins his third season with the Gators, after going 10-4 and 9-4 in 2015 and 2016. He is dealing with two key issues in this contest. The big story is the suspension of seven players, including 2016 leading receiver and special teams stud Antonio Callaway (54 catches and 721 receiving yards with four TDs in 2016) and defensive lineman Keivonnis Davis, for misuse of school funds. The other question mark is who will start under center. RS freshman Feleipe Franks started the spring game for the Gators and played well enough to be considered for the starting job, while Luke Del Rio is recovering from off-season shoulder surgery and then there’s the wild card in Notre Dame transfer Malik Zaire. In the end, McElwain named Franks as the starter on Wednesday. Franks threw for 2,766 yards and 35 TDs during his senior season at Wakulla High School in Crawfordville, Fla. The defense took a big on hit, with only five starters returning from last season and don't expect the Gators to match last year's numbers of 16.8 PPG on about 293 YPG. The pick: I'm no fan of either of Michigan's two QBs, Wilton Speight or John O’Korn and I believe Michigan's preseason ranking of No. 11 is based more on Harbuagh's notoriety. After all, Michigan had a school-record 11 players selected in the 2017 NFL Draft, meaning there are many new faces in new roles all over the field. Let me add that Florida has won 27 consecutive season openers, the best streak in the nation. The Gators will likely remember that recent Citrus Bowl loss to the Wolverines but after careful consideration I prefer to make the Over an 8* play. |
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08-31-17 | Seahawks v. Raiders OVER 40 | Top | 17-13 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: This Week 4 game at the O.co Coliseum in Oakland features a game between the Seahawks and Raiders. Both were playoff teams in 2016, with Seattle going 10-5-1 in winning the NFC West. Seattle beat Detroit in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs but then lost to the Atlanta Falcons in the Divisional Round. The Raiders finished 12-4, giving them a second-place finish in the AFC West (ending a 13-year playoff drought) but with QB Derek Carr sidelined, they lost in the Wild Card Game to the Texans. However, as both teams wrap up their respective preseasons, the Seahawks are 3-0 SU & ATS, while the Raiders are 0-3 & 0-3 ATS. Seattle: The Seahawks have beaten the Chargers 48-17, the Vikings 20-13 and the Chiefs 26-13. QB Russell Wilson was sharp the last two weeks and went 13-of-19 for 200 yards and a TD against KC. Seattle has looked impressive in the preseason due in no small part to its deep group of players. The Seahawks escaped Week 3 with no new injuries. Oakland: It's been a lost preseason for the Raiders, as they've lost 20-10 to the Cardinals, 24-21 to the Rams and 24-20 the Cowboys 24-20. Against Dallas, QB Derek Carr got a nice workout, going 13-of-17 for 144 yards with two TDs. The pick: As the teams' respective record reveal, Oakland doesn’t care much about winning preseason games, while Pete Carroll tends to treat every game like a playoff game. Most of the starters will be sitting out Game 4 but I expect many of the backups going all out, in extended action. The over/under is way too low here, with Seattle averaging 31.3 PPG this preseason. Make the Over an 8* play. |
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08-30-17 | A's v. Angels UNDER 9 | Top | 8-10 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: The Angels will wrap up a 10-game homestand looking for a three-game sweep of the A's. LA was 2-5 after the Rangers and Astros visited Anaheim but can now The pitching matchup: Kendall Graveman (4-4 & 4.24 ERA) goes for Oakland and Parker Bridwell (7-2 & 2.89 ERA) for LA. Graveman was on the DL for two-plus months and his return on Aug. 2 was a disatser. He allowed seven ERs in juts two innings of an 11-2 loss at San Francisco. A no-decision followed but he's won two of his last three, allowing just five ERs over 20 innings (2.25 ERA). Graveman is 2-2 with a 3.19 ERA in nine career starts against the Angels (team is 5-4). Bridwell just continues to impress. He did suffer his first loss in nine starts this past Friday but allowed only two runs on six hits in seven innings against Houston in a 2-1 loss. He has yielded fewer than three ERs in four consecutive starts and in 10 of his last 12 while issuing more than one walk only once in his last eight outings. The Angels are 11-2 in Bridwell's 13 starts, giving him MLB's second-best moneyline mark (plus-$1232). He will be facing Oakland for the first time. The pick: Graveman has pitched well his last three and Bridwell has been just terrific, since joining the rotation back on May 30. The Under is an 8* play. |
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08-29-17 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: The Arizona D'backs host the LA Dodgers in a three-game series beginning tonight and although Arizona boasts the NL's third-best overall record at 73-58 (including an excellent 42-23 home mark), the Dodgers are so far ahead of them in the NL West (91-39, giving them a 19-game lead!), that this is not much of a "showdown series." However, while the Dodgers have pretty much 'lapped' all MLB teams in 2017, the D'backs could sure use a series win, as they are fighting to hold on to their playoff position. Arizona currently owns the NL's No. 1 wild card spot, two games clear of the Rockies. The D'backs should also be aware that the Brewers are three games back of the Rockies, meaning that the D'backs are five games inside the NL playoff 'cut line.' That's a nice lead with 31 games left to play but surely not one which is completely 'safe.' The pitching matchup: Rich Hill (9-5 & 3.32 ERA) takes the mound for LA and Zack Godley (5-7 & 3.15 ERA) for Arizona. Hill entered his last start 5-0 over his previous eight (Dodgers were 7-1) and took a perfect game into the ninth inning at Pittsburgh this past Wednesday. An error ruined his perfect game in the 9th and then a walk-off HR ended the no-hitter in the 10th! Hill is just 1-4 with a 4.46 ERA against the D'backs in eight career starts (teams are 2-6) but he did toss seven innings of one-run ball against them on July 6 (he got a no-decision in a 5-4 LA win). Godley lost his third straight start by giving up three runs over five innings at the New York Mets on Wednesday (D'backs lost 4-2), an outing which followed a 10-strikeout performance in a 10-3 loss at Minnesota The pick: Note that Godley has allowed three ERs or less in five of his last six starts, with the under going 4-0-1 in those five sold efforts. Also, he owns a pair of solid starts against the Dodgers this season, giving up one run in 5 2/3 innings on July 5 and tossing 6 2/3 innings of three-run ball on Aug. 8. As for Hill, his recent numbers speak loud and clear. He's made nine starts since July 1, allowing 14 ERs on 37 hits over 56 innings, giving him a 2.25 ERA plus a 72-11 KW ratio. Make the Under an 8* play. |
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08-28-17 | Mariners v. Orioles UNDER 11 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -120 | 19 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: The Seattle Mariners open a three-game series on the road against the Baltimore Orioles on Monday. The Mariners are 66-65 and the Orioles 65-65 plus each team owns an identical minus-23 run differential. The duo is among a very crowded race that sees seven teams within three-games of the AL's final wild card spot (Seattle is 1 1/2 games back and Baltimore two back of the Twins, who currently own that No. 2 spot). Baltimore welcomes Seattle to town after completing a three-game sweep in Boston over the weekend, outscoring the AL East-leading Red Sox 25-4 in the process. Meanwhile, Seattle committed five errors in one inning during Sunday's 10-1 loss to the NY Yankees, while losing the rubber match of that three-game series. Baltimore owns a four-game winning streak overall but has fared poorly against Seattle in recent meeting, losing eight of the last 10. The pitching matchup :Marco Gonzales (0-1 & 7.40 ERA) will get the nod for Seattle and Chris Tillman (1-7 & 7.75 ERA) for Baltimore. Gonzales was acquired from the Cardinals on July 21 and failed to make it through five innings for the fifth time in as many starts this past Tuesday at Atlanta. He took the 4-0 loss, allowing two runs on six hits and three walks while throwing 99 pitches over 4 2/3 innings. He's made five starts in 2017 (four with Seattle and one with St. Louis / teams are 2-3) in which opponents are batting .352 against him. Gonzales settled for a no-decision versus the Orioles on August 16, when he permitted four runs over 4 1/3 innings, although Seattle won 7-6. Tillman did not factor in the decision in his return to the rotation on August 20 versus the LA Angels. He allowed four runs and issued a career high-tying six walks across 5 1/3 innings in a game the Angels won 5-4. Tillman won 56 games for Baltimore the previous four seasons, winning 16 times in both 2013 and 2016. However, it's been a 'lost season' for the 2013 All Star, who owns a 1.99 WHIP and .342 opponents BA to go along with his 7.75 ERA. The pick: Looking at these two starting pitchers, an "over" would be the knee-jerk response. However, note that Tillman is an impressive 7-1 with a 3.30 ERA in 11 career games (10 starts / team is 8-2) versus Seattle. Let's take a "leap of faith" and make the Under a 10* play. |
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08-27-17 | New York Mets - Game #2 v. Washington Nationals - Game #2 OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 105 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: The Washington Nationals will host the NY Mets in a Sunday doubleheader, with the second game being the Sunday night ESPN contest. The 77-50 Nats are cruising to a NL East crown (lead the division by 12 1/2 games), despite a long injury list. The 56-72 Mets are 21 1/2 games back of the Nats and have lost 10 of their 14 meetings with Washington this season.
The pitching matchup: Seth Lugo (5-3 & 4.85 ERA) will start tonight's second game for New York, opposed by Washington's Tanner Roark (10-8 & 4.64 ERA). Lugo will be making his first appearance since August 11 and will attempt trying to snap a run of three consecutive poor starts. He failed to complete six innings in any of those three outings (he's 0-1 and the Mets 1-2), allowing 13 ERs over just 16 innings (7.31 ERA). He last saw Washington back on July 4 and that did not go well, as Lugo gave up six runs on 10 hits over five innings in a loss. That leaves him 1-2 with a 4.82 ERA in three career starts vs. Washington. Roark comes in pitching fairly well, having allowed more than three ERs in just one of his last eight starts (he's 4-3 and Washington 4-4). Roark is making his second start of the season against the Mets and allowed three runs on seven hits and three walks in 6 2/3 innings against the division rivals without factoring in the decision back on April 21. He's 6-2 with a 2.35 ERA in 10 career starts vs. the Mets (team is 7-3). |
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08-26-17 | Brewers v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 21 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: The Milwaukee Brewers are in LA for a three-game series with the Dodgers and were held to one hit in Friday’s 3-1 loss. However, they remained three games behind the first-place Chicago Cubs in the NL Central, as the Cubs lost 7-1 in Philadelphia to the ML-worst Phillies (47-70). Kenta Maeda tossed six strong innings and Yasiel Puig hit his 23rd homer Friday as the Dodgers improved to 56-11 since June 7 and 91-36, overall. The pitching matchup: Milwaukee ace Zach Davies (14-7 & 4.09 ERA) squares off against LA's Ross Stripling (3-4 & 3.41 ERA), who will be making his first start of 2017, after 35 relief appearances. Davies recorded his sixth quality start in his past seven outings last Monday, allowing two runs over six innings in a 2-0 loss to San Francisco. He owns a 7-3 record and 2.65 ERA in his last 11 outings and his plus-$755 moneyline mark (16-10 in team starts) ranks 8th-best among all starters. Davies is 1-1 with a 3.63 ERA in three career starts against Los Angeles (team is ), including six scoreless innings in a 3-0 victory back on June 4. Stripling will move into the rotation to start in place of Alex Wood, who landed on the 10-day disabled list last Tuesday with a left shoulder injury. Stripling is making his first start for the Dodgers this season after going back and forth between the rotation and bullpen in 2016, finishing 5-9 with a 3.96 ERA in 22 games (14 starts). He owns a 6-5 record and 3.80 ERA in 28 career games (eight starts) at Dodger Stadium. The pick: Davies has started 13 games at home and 13 on the road here in 2017. His home ERA is 5.97 and road WHIP is 1.63, which is in stark contrast to his 2.33 road ERA and 1.16 road WHIP! Stripling is expected to pitch three or four innings and throw about 40-50 pitches, with the Dodgers planning to have a "bullpen game." Josh Ravin, Edward Paredes and Tony Cingrani are all expected to back up Stripling. Let's not forget that the Dodgers own MLB's best bullpen ERA at 2.97 or that Milwaukee has scored a total of just seven runs over its last four contests. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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08-26-17 | Chargers v. Rams UNDER 41.5 | Top | 21-19 | Win | 100 | 19 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: Here in LA circa 2017, it's "Back to the Future." When the AFL was formed back in 1960, the Chargers were located in LA, before moving to San Diego in 1961 and remained there when the leagues merged in 1970. The Rams began in Cleveland but moved to LA in 1946. The Rams left the West Coast to relocate in St. Louis in 1995 and just returned to LA for the 2016 season. Lo and behold, the Chargers moved north to LA after last season and now the Rams and Chargers are both LA-based teams once again. The Chargers have opened 0-2 SU & ATS (lost 48-17 to Seattle in Week 1 and then 13-7 loss to the Saints in Week 2. Meanwhile, the Rams who are coming off a 4-12 season in the team's first year back in LA, have begun their preseason 2-0 SU & ATS, edging the Cowboys 13-10 in Week 1 and the Raiders 24-21 in Week 2. LA Chargers: Philip Rivers sat out last week, with Kellen Clemens seeing a good amount of action. However, he completed 10 of 17 passes for only 99 yards without a TD or INT. Cardale Jones went 7 for 15 with 61 yards and an interception in the loss. RB Melvin Gordon only had three carries for eight yards last week. The Chargers could get nothing going on the ground last week, rushing for a team total of only 66 yards (29 carries) and finished the game with only 158 total yards and 13 FDs. The offense wasn't much better in Week 1 (14 FDs on 322 yards), although the defense rebound by allowing just 13 points after giving up 48 points in Week 1. LA Rams: Jared Goff was sharp in last week's three-point win over the Raiders, completing 16 of 20 for 160 yards and a TD. Sean Mannion was also very good, throwing for 132 yards and a touchdown on 15 of 22 passing. Mannion got most of the work in LA's 13-10 Week 1 win over Dallas, completing 18 of 25 for 144 yards (no TDs or INTs). The Rams' D allowed 21 points but just 261 yards against Oakland, which followed them holding Dallas to just 10 points on 248 yards (just 9 FDs) in Week 1. The pick: That Rams' D is the key to this play, as I've been very impressed. Yes, the Rams will see more of Rivers (he was 5 of 6 for 56 yards and one TD in Week 10) and also RB Gordon but the Chargers are averaging only 12.0 PPG through their first two. Goff and Mannion have looked good so far for the Rams but here, that duo will see much more defensive regulars than they have in the first two weeks. Remember, the Rams averaged an NFL low 14.0 PPG in 2016. Make the Under an 8* play. |
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08-25-17 | Chiefs v. Seahawks OVER 43 | Top | 13-26 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 26 m | Show |
he set-up: The Kansas City Chiefs are coming off an impressive 30-12 win last week in Cincinnati, evening their record at 1-1 (lost 27-17 at home in Week 1 to the 49ers). The Chiefs travel to CenturyLink Field in Seattle Friday for an ESPN televised game with the 2-0 Seahawks, who crushed the LA Chargers 48-17 in Week 1 and then handed the Vikings a rare preseason loss last Friday night at home, 20-13. These teams used to be division rivals (AFC West) but since 2002 have played in opposite conferences. Kansas City: Alex Smith completed eight of nine passes for 83 yards and one TD in last week's win plus rookie Patrick Mahomes II threw for 88 yards and two TDs. KC's offense was hitting on all cylinders against the Bengals, as Charcandrick West topped 100 rushing yards (113 yards on just seven carries), a feat not often accomplished in the preseason. The Chiefs out-gained the Bengals 410-257 in total yards in the contest, won the FD battle 22-13 and controlled the time of possession battle by a 34:17 to 25:43 margin. Seattle: The Seahawks have had little trouble moving the football and scoring in this preseason. Seattle exploded for 48 points (458 yards) in Week 1, as Russell Wilson played just one series (3 of 4 for 41 yards). However, Seattle's starting QB looked to be in regular season form after completing 13 of 18 passes for 206 yards and two TDs in last Friday's win. Seattle only scored 20 points against the Vikings but did roll up 406 yards. The Seattle D has also looked good (backups and all), allowing 15.0 PPG in its two wins. The pick: It’s a Week 3 preseason matchup, so expect the starters to play "serious minutes" for both team, as they try to find a groove. Smith is looking over his shoulder for KC, as Mahomes has shined in back-to-back games. Both QBs will be looking to impress, testing Seattle's D. As noted, Seattle's offense is clicking on all cylinders making this a 10* play on the Over. |
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08-25-17 | Padres v. Marlins OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: The Miami Marlins fell seven games below .500 (53-60) after dropping three of four at Washington from Aug. 7-10. However, a surprising sweep of Colorado jump-started a 10-3 run over their last three contests. Miami followed up its three-game sweep of the Rockies by taking seven of 10 from a trio of the NL's worst teams, the Giants, Mets and Phillies. Thursday's wild 9-8 victory over the Phillies (Miami hit three of its four HRs after falling behind 8-3 in the fourth inning) kept them 5 1/2 games behind the Rockies for the NL's second wild card spot). The Marlins now face another sub-.500 team in the 57-70 Padres, who took the rubber match of their three-game series with St. Louis on Thursday, allowing Miami to move within one-half game of one of the two teams (the Cardinals) it has to leapfrog in order to make a run at Colorado. |
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08-24-17 | Twins v. White Sox UNDER 10 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
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08-23-17 | Twins v. White Sox UNDER 10.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 25 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: The Minnesota Twins were caught from behind and passed by the defending AL Champs (Cleveland Indians) in the AL Central but they have righted the ship with a 13-4 run which has not enabled them to catch the Indians (Cleveland leads the division by 4 1/2 games) but has allowed them to keep their playoff hopes alive. The 65-60 Twins currently own the No. 2 wild card spot, led by a power surge which has seen them hit 17 HRs in their last six games, while averaging more than two per contest during their 13-4 run. Minnesota hit three HRs in Tuesday's 4-1 victory in Chicago against the White Sox and the five-game series (teams played a doubleheader on Monday) continues tonight at Guaranteed Rate Field. The 48-76 White Sox own the AL's worst record and have been "playing out the string" for quire awhile now. |
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08-23-17 | Blue Jays v. Rays OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 24 h 55 m | Show |
The-set-up: The Tampa Bay Rays opened August with three straight wins but until last night's 6-3 win over the Blue Jays, the Rays hadn't won back-to-back games (TB beat Sea 3-0 on Sunday) since that three-game run to open the month. Tampa Bay is 62-65 on the season and is currently four games back in the race for the American League’s second wild card spot but the bigger problem may be that the Rays are one of five teams vying for that spot, not to mention the Orioles, who are just a half-game behind Tampa Bay. The Blue Jays are two games back of the Rays (six back of the No. 2 wild card spot) but are fading out of the AL wild card race with four straight losses to start their road trip, as they continue this three-game series at Tropicana Field. The pitching matchup: Marcus Stroman (11-6 & 2.99 ERA) has been pitching well and takes the mound tonight for Toronto, squaring off against Tampa Bay rookie Austin Pruitt (6-4 & 5.37 ERA). Stroman comes in off three straight quality starts and six in his last eight games overall (Jays are 5-3), after limiting Tampa Bay to two runs on six hits over 6 1/3 innings last Wednesday in a 3-2 Toronto victory. Stroman is 5-4 with a 4.04 ERA in 10 career starts against the Rays (team is 5-5). Pruitt registered a career-high seven innings last time out against Seattle, but allowed six runs on 11 hits and two walks in his second straight loss. The rookie had strung together three consecutive quality starts before his last game while permitting a modest four runs on 16 hits over 18 1/3 innings combined in that span (1.96 ERA). This will be his first career start vs. Toronto but he is 1-0 with a 4.26 ERA in three previous relief appearances against the Blue Jays The pick: The Tampa Bay offense has come alive lately (15 runs in its last three games), while the Toronto lineup will face a rookie with a 1.50 WHIP and .302 BAA to go along with his 5.37 ERA. Make the Over an 8* play. |
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08-22-17 | Brewers v. Giants OVER 8 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: The Brewers coughed up a 5 1/2 game lead over the Cubs at the All Star break in the NL Central. However, after losing six straight from Aug. 6-11, Milwaukee had won six of seven to climb back to within two games of the Cubs, as they began a three-game road series against the San Francisco Giants on Monday. The good news was that the Giants owned MLB's third-worst record plus MLB's worst moneyline mark but the kicker was that the Brewers had dropped 35 of their last 55 games in San Francisco, including nine of their last 10. "Lightning didn't strike," as the Giants shut out the Brewers 2-0 last night, as Milwaukee managed only four singles in the defeat (ruined a solid effort by Davies, who allowed two uneraned runs in six innings). The setback was Milwaukee's 10th in its last 11 meetings at AT&T Park, dropping them 2 1/2 games behind the first-place Chicago Cubs in the NL Central and 3 1/2 back of Arizona for the second wild-card spot. San Francisco improved to 3-2 on its seven-game homestand as rookie Chris Stratton and three relievers combined on the four-hit shutout. |
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08-21-17 | Mariners v. Braves UNDER 9.5 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: The Seattle Mariners opened a four-city, 13-day, 12-game road trip this past weekend and took two of three from the Rays in Tampa. The 63-62 Mariners arrive in Atlanta for the first contest of a three-game series on Monday, 1 1/2 games out of the second AL wild-card spot. Designated hitter Nelson Cruz singled Sunday to extend his hitting streak to 12 games and is batting .422 during that stretch with seven HRs and 16 RBI. The Mariners have their work cut out for themselves, as in order to stay in the wild card chase, they will have to navigate a stretch that has them playing 21 away games in 28 contests. The good news is, that after opening 8-20 on the road, the Mariners arrive in Atlanta having gone 21-10 on the road since that awful start. Atlanta salvaged the finale of a three-game home series with Cincinnati on Sunday, winning 8-1 but sit 55-67 on the season with no playoff hopes, having lost 19 of their last 27 games. The pitching matchup: Andrew Albers (1-0 & 1.80 ERA), who was just purchased from the Braves on Aug. 11 for cash considerations, will face his ex-teammates here for Seattle and match up against Mike Foltynewicz (10-8 & 4.75 ERA). Albers made the most of his first major-league appearance of the season while holding Baltimore to one run over five innings to earn his first big-league victory since his rookie season in 2013. Albers had made 17 appearances in the majors from 2013-2016 with Minnesota and Toronto (2-5 & 4.41 ERA), posted a 2.61 ERA in 26 games for Atlanta’s Triple-A affiliate while going 12-3! Foltynewicz has gotten pounded in his last two starts, allowing 14 runs on 16 hits with seven walks in six innings during losses at St. Louis and Colorado (7.88 ERA). However, those two outings followed a 12-start stretch during which he had posted a 3.58 ERA and went 7-1 (Atlanta won 10 of those starts). Foltynewicz enters this contest with the Braves 13-10 in his 2017 starts, giving him an impressive plus-$695 moneyline mark (10th-best). He is 5-2 with a 3.48 ERA and 47 strikeouts against 19 walks in nine home starts this season (Braves are 7-2). The pick: Albers pitched well in Triple-A this year (see above) and was sharp in his first start for Seattle. He faces his ex-team here and the lefty faces an Atlanta team which has played just 20 games against a left-handed starter in 2017 (10-10). Foltynewicz is off two 'ugly' starts but both came on the road. He's been very good in SunTrust Park in 2017 (again, see above) and I'll make the Under a 10* play. |
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08-20-17 | Cardinals v. Pirates UNDER 9.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: It's a special game between the Cards and Pirates on Sunday night, as the teams meet at Historic Bowman Field in Williamsport, Pa. as part of the Little League Classic. The Pirates will be the host team and yesterday afternoon snapped a six-game slide with a 6-4 victory, The Cardinals took the first two of this four-game series by scoring 11 runs each on Thursday and Friday but were held in check yesterday and with the loss, fell 2 1/2 games behind the first-place Chicago Cubs in the NL Central (are also a half-game back of the second-place Brewers). |
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08-19-17 | Nationals v. Padres OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -120 | 23 h 27 m | Show |
full analysis |
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08-19-17 | White Sox v. Rangers UNDER 12 | Top | 7-17 | Loss | -120 | 23 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: The Texas Rangers took a four-game winning streak, one in which they had scored 37 runs (9.25 per), into Friday night's second contest of a four-game series with the Chicago White Sox, owners of the American League's worst record. However, Texas was held to just three runs on six hits in the one-run loss. It was just the Rangers' second loss in their last nine games, as the club sits 1 1/2 games behind Minnesota and the LA Angels in the battle for the American League's second wild card. Chicago ended a five-game losing streak but the White Sox have been in a free-fall since July 4, going 9-32 to leave them with a 46-73 record (only the Phillies, at 43-77, are worse in all of MLB!). |
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08-19-17 | Panthers v. Titans UNDER 40.5 | Top | 27-34 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: The Carolina Panthers opened with a 27-17 home win over the Texans last week and will be in Nashville Saturday afternoon to take on the Tennessee Titans at LP Field. The Titans opened their 2017 preseason by scoring just three points and a modest 223 gaining yards in a 7-3 loss against the NY Jets. The Panthers entered 2016 as the defending NFC champions (15-1 regular season) but stumbled to a 1-5 start that eventually doomed them to a 6-10 finish and last place in the NFC South. It was Carolina’s first missed postseason since 2012. The Titans are off a 9-7 season last year, when they lost the AFC Central title to Houston in a tie-breaker. |
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08-18-17 | Calgary v. BC OVER 56.5 | Top | 21-17 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 55 m | Show |
The pick: Bo Kevi Mitchell led Calgray to the Grey Cup Final last season (lost 39-33 in OT to Ottawa), when he threw for 5,392 yards with 32 TDs and just eight INTs. He and his team is starting resemble last year's club (we'll know more when the Stampeders finally face off against the Eskimos) but at the moment, I won't buck Calgary. The Stampeders have won eight of their last nine meetings against the Lions and may make it nine of 10 but I see both offenses having HUGE games and prefer the Over. Make it |
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08-14-17 | Indians v. Red Sox OVER 10 | Top | 7-3 | Push | 0 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: The Boston Red Sox visited the Bronx for a three-game weekend series with the hated Yankees, beginning on Friday. Boston came to Yankees Stadium on an eight-game winning streak and with a 4 1/2 games lead in the AL East. However, the team's bullpen, which is having an outstanding season, imploded Friday night, allowing a five-run Yankee eighth-inning, as Boston's winning streak was snapped 5-4. The Red Sox recovered nicely though, winning 10-5 on Saturday afternoon and then last night on ESPN, Andrew Benintendi, who hit a pair of three-run HRs on Saturday, drove in the winning run in Sunday's 3-2 win. Boston has now won 10 of its last 11, while opening a 5 1/2-game lead over New York. Benintendi has played a big part in Boston’s surge, going 13-for-27 with four HRs and 11 RBI during a seven-game hitting streak. The Indians make a one-day visit to Fenway Park on Monday, for the makeup of a rained-out game back on August 2. Cleveland took the final three contests of its four-game set in Tampa Bay over the weekend to increase its lead in the AL Central to 4 1.2 games, as new acquisition Jay Bruce (from the Mets) made an immediate impact by going 5-for-12 with three RBI. |
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08-13-17 | Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 8 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: The Yankees ended Boston's eight-game winning streak with a five-run 8th inning leading to a comeback 5-4 Friday night victory. However, rookie Andrew Benintendi hit a pair of three-run HRs in Saturday's 10-5 Boston win, giving the Red Sox nine wins in their last 10 and regaining the 4 1/2 game lead in the AL East the team had when this series began Friday night. The rubber match of a three-game series goes Sunday night on ESPN, as Boston looks to increase its lead in the East to 5 1/2 games while New York, which leads the AL wild card race by 2 1/2 games, looks to avoid a fourth straight non-winning series (Yankees are 5-7 in that stretch). The pitching matchup: Chris Sale (14-4 & 2.57 ERA) goes for Boston and the Yanks send rookie Jordan Montgomery (7-6 & 4.05 ERA) to the mound. Sale is coming off a dominating outing in which he struck out 13 while limiting the Tampa Bay Rays to two hits in eight scoreless innings of a 2-0 win this past Tuesday. The AL Cy Young favorite has not allowed an earned run in four of his five starts since the All-Star break and has not suffered a loss since July 6. Sale had no trouble with the New York lineup back on July 15, when he scattered three hits and struck out 13 over 7 2/3 scoreless innings (note: the Yanks won 4-1 in 16 innings). That follows a theme, as although Sale owns a 1.36 ERA in nine career starts vs. the Yanks, his teams are just 4-5! Montgomery made a brief trip to the minors this week but came back when CC Sabathia went on the disabled list and is trying to pick up where he left off after holding the Cleveland Indians to one run and three hits over five innings on Aug. 5. He was hit in the head with a line drive during batting practice on Saturday but went through tests and is expected to make the start. Montgomery was not at his best at Boston on July 14, when he allowed three runs on six hits and three walks in four innings (Boston won 5-4). The pick: I realize Sale comes in on a roll but the Yankees have averaged 5.69 RPG at home. As for Boston, the Red Sox have averaged 6.40 RPG during a 9-1 stretch and I'll make the over a 10* play. |
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08-13-17 | Seahawks v. Chargers UNDER 37.5 | Top | 48-17 | Loss | -110 | 152 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: The Seattle Seahawks will be in Los Angeles Sunday night, as the now-LA Chargers begin a new era in "The City of Angels (AFL fans may remember that the Chargers began in LA back in 1960, before moving to San Diego the in their second season of 1961). The Seahawks won the AFC West at 10-5-1 and reached the divisional round before falling to the eventual NFC Champion Atlanta Falcons. The Chargers hope to turn things around in their new home, after finishing dead last in the AFC West with a 5-11 record in 2016. While the Chargers have been to the playoffs just once in the last seven season, the Seahawks enter the 2017 season having played in the postseason six times over that same seven-year span (two SB appearances, including one win). |
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08-12-17 | Orioles v. A's UNDER 9.5 | Top | 12-5 | Loss | -120 | 27 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: The Orioles have fought their way back into the wild card discussion in recent weeks but squandered a late lead last night and fell 5-4 in Oakland. and dropped a 5-4 decision. Baltimore missed an opportunity to reach the .500 mark for the season on Friday and now (at 57-59), must win the remaining two of this four-games series with the A's to achieve that mark. The setback was the third in four contests for the Orioles, who are now two games back of the Minnesota Twins in the race for the second wild-card spot in the American League. Oakland staged an eighth-inning rally to halt its three-game slide, earning their first win on their current nine-game homestand (1-3 so far). The A's are going nowhere in 2017, as the team's 51-65 record is better than only the White Sox's 45-68 mark in the American League. The pitching matchup: Dylan Bundy (11-8 & 4.15 ERA) starts for Baltimore and Sean Manaea (8-6 & 4.15 ERA) for Oakland. Bundy recorded a career-high 10 strikeouts over seven innings in Monday's 6-2 win in LA over the Angels. He's allowed just two ERs over his last two starts (15 innings for a 1.20 ERA) but that comes after allowing 19 runs in 20 1/3 innings (8.55 ERA) over his previous four outings. This is Bundy's first-ever start against Oakland. Manaea hasn't won in any of his last four starts (he's 0-1 with a 6.63 ERA and the A's are 1-3). Like Bundy, Manaea will be facing Baltimore for the first time in his brief career. The pick: I played last night's Bal/Oak game under and despite some late bullpen woes, cashed that ticket by a half-run. Tonight's win will come easier. Make the Under an 8* play. |
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08-11-17 | Orioles v. A's UNDER 9.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: The Baltimore Orioles opened the 2017 season 22-10 but by the All Star break, were just 42-46. Baltimore returned from the break and lost all three games at home to the Cubs (falling to 42-49) but have since gone 15-9 to climb back in the wild card race. Currently, the Orioles sit just 1 1/2 games out of the final AL wild card spot, although it's a log-jam with six teams within 1 1/2 games of each other vying for ONE spot! The Orioles will attempt to move closer to a wild-card spot tonight in Oakland for the second contest of their four-game series. Baltimore began the series on Thursday with a 7-2 win and the fact that the A's are 50-65 on the season (owners of the AL's second-worst record), has to give Baltimore confidence. |
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08-10-17 | Saints v. Browns OVER 37.5 | Top | 14-20 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: The New Orleans Saints face off against the Cleveland Browns on Thursday night at Cleveland in Week 1 NFL preseason action. Led by Drew Brees, the Saints have owned one of the NFL's best passing offenses for more than a decade. However, the Saints have added RB Adrian Peterson and for the first time, A.P. will dress in gold and black. As for the Browns, they will enter the 2017 season off a 1-15 season last year, the team's ninth consecutive losing one. The Browns have averaged a modest 4.2 wins per season in that nine-year run and also take a 14-season playoff drought into 2017. New Orleans: The Saints continue to rely on the ageless Drew Brees, who completed 70.0 percent of his passes for 5,208 yards with 37 TDs and just 15 interceptions in 673 throws at age 37 last season. Brandin Cooks was traded to the New England Patriots but the Saints still have Michael Thomas (92 catches for 1,137 yards and nine TDs as a rookie last season) and Willie Snead (72 catches, 895 yards, 4 TDs) plus free agent acquisition Ted Ginn Jr. (he'll love Brees!). New Orleans finished 7-9 last season, as while they were the NFL's second-highest scoring team (29.3 PPG), the Sainst also allowed 28.4 PPG (31 of 32 teams). New Orleans gave up at least 34 points in six games last season. Cleveland: The Browns bumbled their way to a 1-15 mark last season, giving them the top pick in the NFL Draft. They selected DE Myles Garrett from Texas A&M. The Browns also went out and picked up the versatile Jabrill Peppers from Michigan along with TE David Njoku from Miami (FL) in the first round. However, the Browns still have plenty of question marks to address, as they finished next to last in the league in scoring offense (16.5 PPG) and third-worst in scoring defense (28.3 PPG) in 2016. Cleveland didn’t score more than 28 points in a game last season while allowing at least 30 points on seven occasions. The pick: No position has been seen greater turmoil in Cleveland than at QB. Cody Kessler (128 of 195, 1380 yards, six TD, two INT, 0-8 as a starter) is the de facto #1 on the depth chart but Cleveland also picked up Brock Osweiler (301 of 510, 2957 yards, 15 TDs, 16 INTs for Houston) in a salary dump deal that netted the Browns a pair of picks and drafted DeShone Kizer from Notre Dame in the second round. Osweiler will get the start in this one but expect to see all three. Plenty of players will see action tonight but it's hard to see how either team will have much trouble putting points on the board. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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08-10-17 | Royals v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 19 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: The St. Louis Cardinals elected to 'stay pat' at the non-waiver trade deadline and all of a sudden, have surged into contention in the NL Central. The Cardinals go for a four-game sweep of their I-70 Series with the Royals Thursday night, while looking to make it six wins in a row, overall. The Cardinals outscored the Royals 21-6 in two wins at Kansas City to open the series, then won 8-5 last night back in St. Louis. The Cards are now 58-56 (in a virtual tie with the 59-57 Brewers) and have inched within 1 1/2 games of the first-place Cubs. Meanwhile, the Royals have dropped five of their last six to fall four games behind first-place Cleveland in the AL Central and one back of Seattle for the second wild-card spot The pitching matchup: Jason Hammel (5-9 & 4.73 ERA) takes the mound for KC and Lance Lynn (10-6 & 3.12 ERA) for StL. Hammel has recorded quality starts in each of his last two outings and four of his last six but it's been a looong year for him, as the Royals are 7-15 in his 2017 starts (minus-$658). Hammel is 4-6 with a 5.69 ERA in 13 career starts against the Cardinals (teams are 5-8). Lynn enters on a roll, having gone 4-0 with a 1.21 ERA over his last six starts and has allowed more than one run only once during that stretch (Cards are 5-1). Lynn has made just three career starts against the Royals, without much success (6.38 ERA). The pick: The Cards are looking for a season-high sixth straight win and come in swinging the bats very well, averaging 9.2 RPG in their five consecutive wins. No reason to expect Hammel to slow them down here and while Lynn is "on a roll," his 6.38 career ERA against the Royals make me say Over in this one (8* play). |
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08-09-17 | Astros v. White Sox UNDER 10 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: The Astros still own the AL's best record at 71-41, as well as owning MLB's best overall road record at 38-16. However, last night's 8-5 loss in Chicago to the White Sox leaves Houston just 11-12 since the All Star break. Chicago snapped a six-game slide with the win but it was just the team's fourth win in 23 games since the break, as the White Sox own the AL's worst record here in 2017 at 42-68. Chicago goes for back-to-back wins for the first time this month tonight, in the second of this three-game series. Meanwhile, the the Astros look to regain their mojo after losing seven of their past 10 games. The pitching matchup: Collin McHugh (0-0 & 3.24 ERA) missed 3 1/2 months with an elbow impingement and takes the mound for just the fourth time in 2017 tonight for Houston. He will be opposed by Miguel Gonzalez (5-10 & 5.15 ERA) of the White Sox. McHugh surrendered one earned run for the second straight outing in last Thursday's game versus Tampa Bay but is still looking for his first decision of the season (he's 0-0 and the team 1-2). McHugh surrendered just five hits and struck out six in six innings against the Rays to walk away with a smile. "It feels good to throw a full 100 pitches, to get a full game in," he said. "It's been a long time for me. So, I think it's a step in the right direction for sure." McHugh is 0-3 with a 4.00 ERA in three career starts vs. the White Sox. Gonzalez saw his streak of three solid starts end (2.33 ERA in that span) with a thud on Thursday after allowing seven runs on seven hits in just 1 2/3 innings of a 9-5 loss at Boston. Gonzalez is 1-4 with a 3.95 ERA in six career starts vs. the Astros (teams are 2-4). The pick: McHugh has looked good in his last two outings and should have little trouble vs. a White Sox lineup that ranks 24th in scoring in all of MLB at 4.30 RPG. As for Gonzalez, I expect him to bounce back from his last awful outing (remember he owned a 2.33 ERA in his previous three starts), against a Houston team "off its game." Make the Under an 8* play. |
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08-09-17 | Texans v. Panthers UNDER 36.5 | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -115 | 56 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: Week 1 of the 2017 NFL preseason begins early, as the Houston Texans visit the Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte tonight. The Texans finished 9-7 and won the AFC South division in 2016. They then won the franchise's first-ever playoff game, beating the Raiders 27-14 in the wild card round (Houston had lost its first playoff game in three previous postseason appearances). However, the Texans lost 34-16 at New England the Divisional Round to the eventual champion Patriots. The Panthers went 15-1 in 2015 and made it to the Super Bowl, before getting shut down by Denver's dominating defense. Then in 2016, Carolina stumbled to a 6-10 record, becoming the first team in NFL history to go 15-1 and miss the playoffs the next year. Houston: The Texans are beginning the franchise’s 16th season and fourth under head coach Bill O’Brien, but will see a few new faces. Offensive coordinator George Godsey is gone, following a 29th overall finish in total yards last year. The one year Brock Osweiler 'experiment' is over, as Tom Savage opens the preseason as the team's No. 1 QB, although Clemson's Deshaun Watson has made quite an early impression on O'Brien, early on. Veteran WR Andre Johnson officially retired in April, leaving a hole in the receiving corps. DeAndre Hopkins (a budding star) and Will Fuller were to be the team’s top receivers but Fuller suffered a broken collarbone during training camp and will be out 2-3 months. Houston added WRs Dres Anderson and Devin Street but are they enough? Lamar Miller is the team's No. 1 RB, backed by Alfred Blue. Houston is one of the NFL's best defensive teams when J.J. Watt is 100%. He missed 13 games last season with a back injury and has been eased into action during training camp. Watt likely won’t play in this contest. Carolina: The Panthers averaged 31.3 PPG in 2015 but the Cam Newton-led offense fell off to just 23.1 PPG in 2016. Newton owns reliable receiving threats in Kelvin Benjamin, Devin Funchess and TE Greg Olsen plus Stanford rookie RB Christian McCaffrey is considered a pass-catcher of the first order. RB Johnathan Stewart continues as a solid backfield presence. The Carolina defense struggled last year, allowing an average of 25.1 PPG (26th) and after forcing a league-high 39 turnover in 2015 (plus-20 TO differential), , had just 27 in 2016 (minus-2 differential). The pick: Watson is turning heads at training camp, fresh off a National Championship with Clemson. However, don't expect much here. Don't expect to see much of Newton either and this game has 'under' written all over it. Make it an 8* play. |
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08-08-17 | Astros v. White Sox UNDER 10 | Top | 5-8 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 30 m | Show |
analysis coming |
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08-07-17 | Cardinals v. Royals UNDER 9 | Top | 11-3 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 11 m | Show |
The set-up: This year’s I-70 Series comes with plenty on the line, as both the Royals and Cardinals enter the four-game home-and-home series Monday at Kansas City with hopes of making a playoff push.The 57-53 Royals are just 2 1/2 games behind first-place Cleveland in the AL Central plus currently own the AL's second wild card spot (two games back of the NYY and a half-game up on TB). The 55-56 Cardinals sit eight games out in the NL Wild card race but in the tight NL Central, trail the first-place Cubs by just 3 1/2 games, so the Cards are far from "out of it!" |
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08-06-17 | Dodgers v. Mets UNDER 9.5 | Top | 8-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: With Saturday's 7-4 win at Citi Field over the Mets, the Los Angeles Dodgers got their 43rd win in their past 50 games, giving them the best 50-game run by a big league team since the 1912 New York Giants compiled the same mark. The Dodgers are 43-7 since June 7 and the 1912 Giants had the same record from May 14 to July 3 that season. The Dodgers hit five HRs in rallying past the Mets to extend their incredible surge. Los Angeles has won all but one of its past 13 games, upping the top record in MLB to an astounding 78-32. That puts the Dodgers at 46 games above .500 for the first time since they were 98-51 back on Sept. 15, 1962. Note that the 1962 team didn't even win the pennant after dropping a best-of-three playoff to rival San Francisco. This year's Dodgers are looking to end a World Series drought that dates to the franchise's last championship in 1988. As for the 2017 Mets, not so much! They are now 49-59 on the season (15 games back of the Nats in the NL East) and have now been outscored 49-15 by the Dodgers in six games in 2017 (all LA wins). The Dodgers have hit 23 HRs in those six games, extending to eight, their winning streak over the Mets dating back to last season.
The pitching matchup: Hyun-Jin Ryu (3-6 & 3.83 ERA) starts for Los Angeles and Steven Matz (2-4 & 5.50 ERA) takes the mound for the Mets. Ryu needed only 85 pitches to toss seven scoreless innings last time out against San Francisco, as the Dodgers wold go on to win 3-2 in 11 innings. That start was typical for Ryu as of late, as the lefty hasn't recorded a decision in his last four starts, despite recording a 2.38 ERA in that span. It's also worth noting that he owns a 2.16 ERA in four career starts vs. the Mets (he's 2-0 and the Dodgers 4-0!). In contrast, Matz has lost three straight decisions and is 0-2 with a 12.21 ERA in four starts since the All-Star break (Mets are 1-3). |
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08-05-17 | Blue Jays v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
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08-04-17 | A's v. Angels UNDER 9 | Top | 6-8 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: The Angels come off a three-game sweep of the Phillies, giving them five wins in their last six to come within a game of .500 (54-55). The Angels welcome the Oakland A's to Angel Stadium, where they own a five-game winning streak. Los Angeles has closed to three games of the AL's final wild card spot (currently held by KC) and need to take advantage of the A's, who are just 48-61 overall, including 17-36 on the road (only the Phillies own a worse record away from home). The pitching matchup: Jharel Cotton (5-8 & 5.49 ERA) goes for the A's and Troy Scribner (1-0 & 4.50 ERA) will be make his third major-league appearance and first career start in this one for the Angels. Cotton was roughed up by Minnesota on Sunday in his first start since spending nearly a month on the disabled list due to blisters. He was lucky to escape with a no-decision, after allowing five runs on five hits (including two HRs) and five walks in 3 2/3 innings. Cotton defeated the Angels in his major-league debut back on Sept. 7 but is 0-2 against them this year after surrendering 12 runs over 9 1/3 frames in two outings for an 11.57 ERA (ouch!). Scribner worked a scoreless inning against Philadelphia on Tuesday, which followed him allowing two runs over three innings at Toronto in his debut three days earlier. The pick: Cotton has been awful at home in 2017 (7.56 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in eight starts) but in seven road starts, owns a 3.26 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. The Astros gave up on Scribner in 2015 but he has matured quickly in the Angels' organization, going 12-5 with a 3.41 ERA in Double-A and Triple-A last year, before going 10-3 with a 4.16 ERA in Triple A in 2017. The Angels called him up last week and he got the win in his first major league appearance, then pitched an inning of relief Tuesday. I'm optimistic for his first start. Make the Under an 8* play. |
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08-04-17 | Hamilton v. Edmonton OVER 55 | Top | 28-33 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: The 0-5 Hamilton Tiger-Cats will look for their first win of 2017 Friday night when they travel to Commonwealth Stadium to meet the Edmonton Eskimos, who are the CFL's lone unbeaten team at 5-0. Hamilton QB Zach Collaros leads the CFL's weakest offense, completing 62.4 percent for a modest 1,143 yards with only three TDs and five interceptions. Hamilton averages 18.0 PPG on 307.2 YPG with both figures ranking dead-last among the CFL's nine teams. On the other side of the ball, the Tiger-Cats allow 40.2 PPG and 489.8 YPG, with both of those numbers ranking ninth of nine teams. Talk about an unwanted 'daily-double!' Edmonton is led by QB Mike Reilly, who is completing 72.3 percent of his passes for 1,628 yards, with nine TDs and just two interceptions. The Eskimos are scoring 28.4 PPG on 469.2 YPG with both figures ranking fourth in the CFL. Defense has paved the way to Edmonton's 5-0 start, as the Eskimos allow 24.2 PPG (2nd-best) on a league-low 337.4 YPG. |
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08-04-17 | Cardinals v. Reds OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cards head to Cincinnati for a three-game weekend series with the Reds, off a 2-1 setback at Milwaukee on Thursday. It marked St. Louis' fourth loss in seven games and drops the Cards 4 1/2 games behind first-place Chicago in the NL Central. The cellar-dwelling Reds dropped a 6-0 decision to Pittsburgh on Thursday for their 15th loss in 20 games, leaving them 44-64 on the season, better than only the Giants and the Phillies in the entire NL. The pitching matchup: Mike Leake (7-9 & 3.29 ERA) takes the mound for St. Louis and Asher Wojciechowski (1-1 & 4.50 ERA) for Cincinnati. Leake had a strong start to the 2017 season (5-2 with a 1.92 ERA thru May 24) but owns a 2-7 mark since May 29 over 12 starts (Cards are 4-8) and is 0-4 with a 4.79 ERA in seven career starts against a Cincinnati (teams are 0-7!), a club with which he spent parts of six seasons. Wojciechowski has assumed a spot in the rotation in place of the struggling Tim Adleman, who has been moved to the bullpen. "Just wanted to get a different look," Reds manager Bryan Price told reporters of the 28-year-old Wojciechowski receiving Friday's start. "... The one thing that we really want to see is some evolution." Wojciechowski has allowed just one run on four hits and struck out 17 over six relief appearances since his return from Triple-A on July 2. Wojciechowski has one career start vs. the Cards (0-1 & 3.00 ERA / team is 1-0). The pick: Leake's season has crumbled and the fact that he's made seven career starts against the Reds with his teams going 0-7, hardly gives one confidence he can get things turned around here. As for Wojciechowski, his career ERA over 17 major league appearances (seven starts) is 5.36. Make the Over an 8* play. |
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08-02-17 | Tigers v. Yankees UNDER 10 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: The Tigers held off the Yankees 4-3 on Tuesday, giving them three wins in their last four, following a four-game skid. Detroit's Shane Greene, who made his major league debut with New York in 2014, received his first save opportunity against his former team at Yankee Stadium and earned it by getting the final five outs. The Yanks lost for only the third time in 12 games but did drop one-half game behind first-place Boston in the AL East, as Boston beat Cleveland Monday and Tuesday. Yankee "super rookie" Aaron Judge was 0-for-4 and is now 10-for-63 since the All-Star break, dropping his batting average below .300 (.299) for the first time since late April. |
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08-01-17 | Twins v. Padres OVER 8 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -103 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: The Minnesota Twins have been one of MLB's best road teams in 2017 but that hasn't been the case during the team's current eight-game West Coast road trek Minnesota fell to 1-5 on the trip and lost for the sixth time in its last seven overall, following Sunday's 6-5 loss in 12 innings to Oakland. "(Sunday's) game kind of mirrored some of the other ones on this trip," Twins manager Paul Molitor said. "... What we've been doing too much of is letting these teams hang around."haven't been comforting at all. After squandering leads in every contest, the Twins aim to turn around their fortunes on Tuesday as they continue the road trip with the opener of a two-game interleague series at the San Diego Padres. The Twins currently reside 4 1/2 games out of a wild-card spot and take a 3-6 interleague mark into Petco Park to face the Padres, who saw their four-game winning streak halted on Sunday when they were routed 7-1 by Pittsburgh. San Diego (47-58) "can't even see" the Dodgers in the NL West and are also 12 1/2 of a wild card spot (Padres are 7-9 in IL play). The pitching matchup: Jose Berrios (9-4 & 3.76 ERA) starts for Minnesota and Jhoulys Chacin (10-7 & 4.22 ERA) for San Diego. Berrios sustained his second loss in three outings on Tuesday, after allowing four runs in the fourth inning of a 6-2 setback at the Los Angeles Dodgers. Berrios looks to get back on track and maybe he will, as he has allowed two ERs or less in eight of his 14 starts this season (Twins are 9-5, plus-$466 in his 2017 starts). Chacin comes in 4-0 in his last five starts (Padres are 5-0), after yielding two runs on four hits for the second straight outing in Wednesday's 6-3 win over the New York Mets. Chacin has made just two career starts vs. the Twins, going 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA. However, he owns an impressive 6-2 mark with a 2.05 ERA in 11 starts at Petco Park (SD is 7-4). The pick: At first blush this could look like an under but Berrios is beginning to show some 'wear and tear' (5.76 ERA over his last six starts) plus the Twins just dealt away their closer to the Nats. As for Chacin, he's pitching way over his head. He entered the 2017 season 46-57 in his eight-year career. Make the Over an 8* play. |
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07-31-17 | Braves v. Phillies OVER 9 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 105 | 16 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: The 38-64 Philadelphia Phillies may own MLB's worst record but don't try to 'sell' that to the Atlanta Braves. The Phillies made it three wins in a row over the Braves in Sunday's 2-1 victory and Philadelphia has now defeated Atlanta eight times in 10 tries in 2017. The Phillies are playing their best baseball of the season, averaging 5.8 RPG in their last 11 contests. Meanwhile, the Braves have lost seven of eight, a stretch in which the team has averaged a meager 3.3 RPG. Atlanta concludes a three-city, 11-game road trip Monday, looking to avoid a four-game sweep but has stranded 29 runners through the first three games of the series. The Phillies are 10-3 in their last 13 home games with the Braves, going back to May of 2016! |
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07-30-17 | Giants v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
The set: The Giants/Dodgers is one of MLB's greatest rivalries but the 2017 season is a year in which there is not much to it. The teams are 6-6 in 12 meetings so far but who cares? After all, the Dodgers own MLB's best record (73-31) and lead the last-place 40-65 Giants by 33 1/2 games in the NL West. The Dodgers are a ML-best 46-13 at home, while the Giants are just 18-36 on the road. The Giants average only 3.92 RPG (29th of 30 teams) while LA pitching owns a 3.11 ERA and 1.12 WHIP, with both figures leading all ML teams. The Dodgers take a seven-game winning streak into tonight's ESPN contest, allowing an average of only 3.14 runs during their current streak. Los Angeles is a phenomenal 38-6 since June 7! As for San Francisco, its season is lost. The Giants are 25 games below .500 and they've blown leads 28 times that directly led to a loss. They're 9-48 when scoring three runs or less. They're so far behind the Dodgers in the National League West that they're in danger of being lapped. Never in the historic rivalry have the Giants ever trailed the Dodgers by this many games. The pitching matchup: Madison Bumgarner (1-4 & 3.38 ERA) will make the start tonight for the Giants, going up against the Dodgers' Hyun-Jin Ryu (3-6 & 4.17 ERA). Bumgarner has had his scheduled start moved from Monday to Sunday, as the Giants try to salvage the finale of the set for San Francisco. The Giants had lost each of Bumgarner's first six starts this year before he helped them roll past Pittsburgh in his previous outing 11-3 on Tuesday, allowing just one run in five innings. The four-time All-Star and former World Series MVP sat out from late-April to mid-July with a shoulder injury. He has 42 strikeouts against just eight walks in 2017 and he's posted a 2.89 ERA through his first four road outings. Bumgarner is 14-9 with a 2.72 ERA in 26 career starts against the Dodgers (Giants are 15-11). Ryu has failed to get through six innings in five straight starts but allowed exactly two runs in each of the last four to help the Dodgers go 3-1. He limited the Giants to a run in six innings at San Francisco earlier this year and is 4-5 with a 3.79 ERA in 10 career matchups (Dodgers are 5-5). The pick: Bumgarner's been moved up in a an effort to help the Giants avoid a sweep against their long-time hated rival and I expect an excellent effort from him. As for Ryu, he's allowed exactly two runs in each of his last four outings, so the Under is a 10* play. |
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07-29-17 | Twins v. A's UNDER 9 | Top | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: The Minnesota Twins have the bad luck to be stuck in the AL Central, as division rivals KC (nine straight wins) and first-place Cleveland (eight straight wins), are currently MLB's hottest teams. The Twins are trying to keep pace and last night's 6-3 win in Oakland snapped a four-game slide but leaves Minnesota just 5-8 since the break and 50-51 overall, six games back of the Indians (Twinheare are four back of the Royals, who own the second wild card spot). The Twins will continue their three-game set against the host Oakland A's on Saturday, a team with teh AL's second-worst record (44-59). Only the 39-61 White Sox are worse. The pitching matchup: Adalberto Mejia (4-4, 4.10 ERA) steps to the mound for KC, opposed by Chris Smith (0-1, 3.32 ERA) of Oakland. Mejia is win-less in his last three starts, despite allowing just one ER in each of the last two. He will look for his first win since July 3 tonight, making his first road start since June 28. This is Mejia's first start against Oakland. Smith remains in search of his first career win as a starter as he heads to the mound for the fourth start of his major league career (his first 63 career appearances came as a reliever). Smith has made two career relief appearances against Minnesota, allowing two hits with two walks and a pair of strikeouts in three scoreless innings. The pick: Mejia comes in pitching well and while he's struggled at home (4.91 ERA in 10 starts), he owns a 2.31 ERA in his five road starts this season. In Smith's lone home start this year, he allowed just two runs (one earned) against the Rays in seven innings. Make the Under an 8* play |
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07-28-17 | BC v. Edmonton UNDER 54.5 | Top | 26-37 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
The 4-1 BC Lions and 4-0 Edmonton Eskimos meet Friday at Commonwealth Stadium lin Edmonton. The Lions opened with a 31-27 home loss to Edmonton in Week 1, then won three straight on the road, before returning home and escaping 45-42 over Winnipeg in a non-cover. BC's QB Jonathon Jennings has completed 67 percent of his passes for 853 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions but was hurt on the Lion’s first offensive series in Week 4. He was replaced by veteran backup Travis Lulay, who threw for 436 yards and three TDs in a 41-26 road win. Lulay then threw for 404 yards (2 TDs / 2 INTs) in last week's win over the Blue Bombers. BC now leads the CFL in YPG (427.2) and is second in scoring at 32.8 PPG. Defensively, BC is allowing 25.8 points and 383.8 yards per game. The Edmonton Eskimos look to stay unbeaten and best BC for the second time this season (remember that Week 1 win at BC). QB Mike Reilly is completing 72.1 percent of his passes for 1,216 yards with seven TDs and zero INTs (over 140 pass attempts!). However, the real key to Edmonton's success so far is a defense allowing league-bests in both PPG (23.8) and YPG (333.5). |
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07-27-17 | Montreal v. Winnipeg OVER 51 | Top | 40-41 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: The 2-3 Montreal Alouettes and 2-2 Winnipeg Blue Bombers meet Thursday at Investors Group Field in Winnipeg. QB Darian Durant is completing 69.6 percent of his passes for 1,392 yards with six TD passes and also six INTs. He's been a disappointment so far in 2017, as the Alouettes' 20.2 PPG average is the worst on any of the CFL's nine teams. However, Montreal's defense, which allows a modest 21.8 PPG (ranked 1st), has kept the team competitive in the early going. QB Matt Nichols leads a Winnipeg offense averaging 32.0 PPG, third-best in the league. Nichols is completing 66.2 percent of his passes for 1,080 yards with eight TDs and four interceptions. The Blue Bombers will need to score, as their defense is allowing 34.8 PPG (last) on 411 YPG. The pick: Montreal has been held to 19 or less points in four of its first five games but Durant and Co. should break out here vs. a vulnerable Winnipeg defense (see above). Meanwhile, Winnipeg's Nichols is playing some of his best ball of the young season and the Blue Bombers are an accomplished home team. Winnipeg has won seven of the last 10 meetings against Montreal but the better play is the Over. Make it a 10*. |
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07-27-17 | Cubs v. White Sox UNDER 11 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: After taking two of the first three games of this Cubs/White Sox annual Crosstown Classic, the defending champs are now 10-2 since the All Star break and sit 53-47 on the season, a half-game better than the Brewers in the NL Central. With next week's trade deadline rapidly approaching, the Cubs' South Side neighbors are heading in the opposite direction. Wednesday's 8-3 loss means the White Sox have lost 14 in their last 16 games, giving them the AL's worst record at 39-59. The White Sox are in "full-blown" rebuilding mode! The pitching matchup: Jon Lester (7-6 & 3.95 ERA) will start for the Cubs, while the White Sox counter with Mike Pelfrey (3-7 & 4.46 ERA). Lester hopes to continue the strong effort the Cubs have gotten from their starters since the All-Star break, as Cubs starters are 9-0 with eight quality starts and have posted a 2.50 ERA. Lester had that nightmare start right before the break (recorded just two outs and allowed 10 runs, although only four were earned, against the Pirates) but has returned from the break to post back-to-back wins (1.80 ERA). Lester is 6-6 with a 4.43 ERA in 14 starts vs. the White Sox in his career (teams are 8-6). I guess one could point to Pelfrey's 2-0 career mark vs. the Cubs with a 1.66 ERA in three outings (teams are 3-0) but that's really a small sample size. Pelfrey last won back on June 17 vs. Toronto, with the team going 1-4 in his five starts since. On the season, the White Sox are 6-10 in his starts. The pick: The Cubs bats have come alive, as they have averaged 6.0 RPG since the break but while it is a small sample size, Pelfrey has pitched very well against the Cubs. As for Lester, he had a great second-half in 2016 and has begun 2017 the same way (1.80 ERA in B2B wins since the break). Make the Under a 10* play. |
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07-26-17 | Twins v. Dodgers OVER 9 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 110 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: Kershaw may be sidelined for four-to-six weeks but the Dodgers won Sunday's game (the one in which he left) and have added back-to-back wins Monday (6-4) and Tuesday (6-2) over the Twins. As LA goes for a three-game sweep in tonight's finale, the Dodgers will take the field having won 35 of their last 41 to extend their NL West lead to 12 1/2 games and their leed over the Astros in the race for MLB's best overall record to 2 1/2 games. The Dodgers also own a major-league best 43-13 home record. Minnesota lost for the third straight time last night and Tuesday's defeat dropped them below .500 for the first time since April 24 at 49-50. The Twins, who have lost four of five overall, trail Cleveland by 4 1/2 games in the AL Central and are also three games back in the a wild card chase that includes eight teams separated by no more than five games. The pitching matchup: Ervin Santana (11-7 & 3.26 ERA) takes the mound for the Twins and Brock Stewart (0-0 & 0.00 ERA) will make his first start of the season for the Dodgers, after throwing a combined 13 scoreless innings over six relief appearances since June 20. Santana ended May with a 7-2 record and 1.75 ERA but has since given up at least five runs five times, while allowing two or fewer runs in his other four outings. He is coming off yet another poor outing Friday against Detroit, surrendering five runs on seven hits (including two HRs), while throwing 95 pitches over only 3 1/3 innings. Santana got the win with six innings of two-run ball the last time he faced Dodgers in 2014, improving to 6-4 with a 2.38 ERA in 13 starts against them (teams are 8-5). Stewart, who battled an illness over the weekend, will make his first start of the season Wednesday. He has permitted only five hits and three walks in 13 innings in his six relief appearances in 2017. The pick: Minnesota pitchers have allowed 32 runs during their 1-4 stretch and counting on Santana to get that straightened out is "asking for trouble." Yes, Stewart has excellent numbers over his six relief stints since June (opposing hitters are batting only .122 against him) but he struggled mightily in his first five career starts in 2016, going 2-2 with a 6.38 ERA. Make the Over an 8* play. |
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07-25-17 | Brewers v. Nationals OVER 10 | Top | 8-0 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
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07-24-17 | Mets v. Padres UNDER 7.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: It's a week until the non-waiver trade deadline (looming July 31) and Mets like Jay Bruce, Lucas Duda, Curtis Granderson and Addison Reed have all been mentioned as possible trade bait. The Mets saw their four-game winning streak come to an end with Sunday’s 3-2 loss to Oakland and New York has now fallen 10 games back in the NL wild-card race, not to mention 13 1/2 games back in the NL East, New York opens a 10-game road trip Monday against the rebuilding San Diego Padres, who took three of four from San Francisco over the weekend. The Padres are three games back of the Mets in the wild card race and at 43-55 overall, are a whopping 24 1/2 games back of the Dodgers in the NL West. The pitching matchup: Jacob deGrom (11-3 & 3.37 ERA) will start for New York and Clayton Richard (5-10 & 5.35 ERA) for San Diego. DeGrom comes in having won a career-high seven consecutive starts, posting a 1.51 ERA with a 50-10 KW ratio over that stretch. DeGrom is 1-1 with a 1.80 ERA over 20 innings in three career starts against the Padres (Mets are 2-1). Richard will need a bounce back performance here, after surrendering a career-high 11 runs (10 earned) on 14 hits over just 3 2/3 innings in an 18-4 loss at Colorado last Wednesday. “I have to take responsibility,” Richard told reporters. “Unfortunately, it just seemed like mishit balls found the right spots. It was a Coors Field day.” Methinks Richard is passing the buck some to bad luck! Richard is 2-3 with a 4.17 ERA in seven career starts versus the Mets (teams are 3-4).. The pick: DeGrom is pitching as well as anyone not named Kershaw and no reason to expect the San Diego bats to solve him in this one. As for Richard, I'll buy into the fact that the vet will rebound from that last start and let's not forget that more than a handful of Mets are playing this week expecting a call from the front office. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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07-23-17 | Nationals v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: The Washington Nationals are 6-2 heading into the final game of their nine-game road trip. This game marks the rubber match of a three-game series with the D'backs, as the teams have exchanging one run victories. Arizona won 6-5 on Friday and Washington won 4-3 on Saturday. The Nats' 32 road wins is second-best in MLB to the Astros' 35 and are a big reason that the Nats own an 11-game lead in the NL East (only bigger division lead is also held by Houston, which owns a 17-game lead in the AL West). Arizona is 56-41 on the season, in a virtual tie with Colorado for second place in the NL West. However, both teams are a whopping 10 1/2 games back of the Dodgers. Instead of looking up, both the D'backs and Rockies are looking over their shoulders, as there is a 5 1/2 game gap between the two teams and the defending champion Cubs in the wild card race. The pick: Stephen Strasburg (10-3 & 3.31 ERA) and Robbie Ray (9-4 & 2.97 ERA) square off on Sunday in a matchup of All Star pitchers. Strasburg had an awful start prior to the All-Star break, lasting only three innings and failing to strike out a batter while while allowing six runs (three earned) in a loss to Atlanta. However, he rebounded with a special effort in last Monday's 6-1 win at Cincinnati. He struck out 11 while allowing one run on four hits in seven innings. The win gives Strasburg a 7-1 record in nine road starts with a 2.45 ERA and 1.06 WHIP (Nats are 7-2). Ray continued his surprising season in his first start after the All-Star break, tossing six innings of two-run ball at Cincinnati to establish a career high with his ninth victory. The D'backs are 12-6 in Ray's starts in 2017 (plus-$497). A worry may be Ray's 0-3 record with a 6.48 ERA in three career starts against the Nats. The pick: The Nats and Strasburg have been terrific on the road all season and note that six of Strasburg's nine road starts have stayed under the total. Ray has pitched better away from home for most of 2017 but does enter this contest 3-1 with a 2.45 ERA in his last four home starts. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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07-22-17 | Braves v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | Top | 2-6 | Push | 0 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: The Braves ended the Dodgers' 11-game winning streak with a 6-3 win over LA Thursday night at Dodger Stadium and then 'lit up' Alex Wood for nine runs (seven earned) over just 4 2/3 innings of a second straight Atlanta win, 12.3 (Wood entered the game 11-0 with a 11.56 ERA). Lefty Jaime Garcia not only tossed seven strong innings but also belted a grand slam in Friday’s win, as the Braves improved to 7-2 in their last nine road games and to on the season. As for LA, after going 31-4 over a 35-game stretch, LA is now looking to avoid a third straight loss. The pitching matchup: Julio Teheran (7-7 & 4.69 ERA) starts for Atlanta and Rich Hill (6-4 & 3.55 ERA) for Los Angeles. Teheran was always an excellent home pitcher for Atlanta but a move to the team's new home, SunTrust Park, has not been to Teheran's liking. He's an abysmal 1-7 with 7.05 ERA in 10 starts (Braves are 2-8). However, on the road, Teheran's an outstanding 6-0 with a 2.53 ERA in nine starts (Braves are 7-2). The bad news (for Brave fans) here is, Teheran is 0-6 with a 6.47 ERA in seven career starts versus the Dodgers (Atlanta is 0-7). Hill battled blister problems for most of 2016 (first with Oakland and then LA) and it was much of the same early in 2017. However, he has posted a 1.74 ERA and 44-to-6 KW ratio over his last five starts covering 31 innings (he's 3-1 and the Dodgers are 4-1). What's more, Hill owns a 3-0 record and 1.89 ERA in seven career games (five starts / teams are 4-1) against the Braves. The pick: Am I somewhat concerned over Teheran's ugly LT mark against LA? Yes, but his 2.53 ERA in nine 2017 road starts trumps that. Then there is Hill, who has been on a roll since mid-June. Make the Under a 10* play.
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07-21-17 | Winnipeg v. BC UNDER 56.5 | Top | 42-45 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 11 m | Show |
The set-up: The 2-1 Winnipeg Blue Bombers will meet the 3-1 BC Lions Friday at the BC Place. The Blue Bombers have two excellent offensive efforts (a 43-point effort in a win at Saskatchewan plus a 33-point effort in a win at home over Toronto), sandwiched around a 29-10 home loss to Calgary. QB Matt Nichols is completing 62.5 percent of his passes for 826 yards with five TD passes and three interceptions (fairly modest numbers). Winnipeg is allowing 31.3 PPG, ranking eighth of nine teams. Speaking of modest numbers, BC's QB Jonathon Jennings has completed 67 percent of his passes for 853 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. Jennings was hurt on the Lion’s first offensive series last week, when he was driven into the turf by a Hamilton DL. He was replaced by veteran backup Travis Lulay, who threw for 436 yards and three TDs in a 41-26 road win. BC is 3-1 to start the 2017, losing only 31-27 against Edmonton, which is now 4-0 after last night's win. The pick: BC has been the better team so far in 2017 but Winnipeg has won four of the last five meetings between the two teams. The QB situation at BC is muddled plus Winnipeg's Nichols has not played well, either. The BC defense allows 21.8 PPG, best in the CFL and I say the Under is a 10* play. |
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07-20-17 | Edmonton v. Hamilton UNDER 53 | Top | 31-28 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: The 3-0 Edmonton Eskimos visit the 0-3 Hamilton Tiger-Cats on Thursday at Tim Hortons Field. The Edmonton Eskimos look for their second road victory to build on their quick 3-0 start to the season. QB Mike Reilly is completing 71.8 percent of his passes for 866 yards with four TD passes without an interception in 103 pass attempts. However, it's the Edmonton defense which is the main reason the Eskimos are unbeaten, ranking first in points allowed (22.3 PPG) and second in total yards allowed (336.3 YPG). Checking the stats, it's not hard to see why the Tiger-Cats are still searching for their first victory of the year. Hamilton ranks 9th (of nine teams) in scoring (20.3 PPG) and in total yards (305.3 YPG). Defensively, Hamilton also ranks last in the CFL in both points allowed (36.7 PPG) and total yards (512.0 YPG). |
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07-17-17 | Cardinals v. Mets UNDER 9 | Top | 6-3 | Push | 0 | 19 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: St. Louis opened a 10-game road trip by losing two of three at Pittsburgh over the weekend. The Cards fell to 18-23 on the road in 2017 and to 44-47 on the season, leaving them 6 1/2 back of the Brewers in the NL Central. The Mets began the second half by winning 14-2 and 9-3 over the visiting Rockies but were then routed 13-4 in Sunday’s series finale. The Mets welcome the Cards to Citi Field for a four-game series beginning tonight at 41-48, leaving them 13 games back of the Nats in the NL East. |
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07-16-17 | Rangers v. Royals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: The Rangers followed Friday's 5-3 win in Kansas City with a 1-0 shutout win on Saturday, giving them five wins in their last six game and getting themselves back to .500 at 45-45. Almost all AL teams are alive in the wild card chase at this stage and Texas has clearly climbed back into contention as the Rangers are currently just two back of the final wild card spot. In contrast, the Royals are heading in the opposite direction. After going 6-1 from June 30 through July 5, KC has now lost five straight to fall to 44-45 (note: team is still just 2 1/2 out of that final wild card spot!). The pitching matchup:. Yu Darvish (6-8, 3.49 ERA) takes the mound for Texas and Ian Kennedy (3-6 & 4.45 ERA) for Kansas City. Darvish has dropped four straight decisions, although twice in that span he allowed just two ERs, including last Sunday in a 3-0 defeat against the LA Angels. Darvish is 2-1 (2.25 ERA) in four career starts vs. KC (Texas is 3-1). Kennedy gets his first start since the break coming off going unbeaten in his last six starts with a 3.22 ERA. He's gone at least six innings in five of those outings. posting a 3-0 record (KC is 5-1). The pick: Texas goes for the sweep here but Kennedy has a nice run going (see above). As for Darvish, he is a way better pitcher than his current record and I expect that he'll continue the fine pitching the Texas staff has shown lately, when the Rangers have allowed a total of just 10 runs in winning five of six. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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07-15-17 | Rays v. Angels UNDER 9 | Top | 6-3 | Push | 0 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
The set-up: Mike Trout is back in the Los Angeles Angels' lineup but his much-ballyhooed return didn't result in a victory. Trout returned to the field after missing 39 contests with a torn ligament in his left thumb but went 1-for-5 in Friday's 10-inning, 2-1 loss to the visiting Rays. The loss was the Angels' eighth in 11 games, as LA fell three game back of the AL's final wild card spot in a very crowded field. As for Tampa Bay, its win coupled with New York's loss, give the Rays a one-game lead over the Yankees for the AL's No. 1 wild card spot. The pitching matchup: Alex Cobb (7-6 & 3.75 ERA) takes the mound for the Rays and JC Ramirez (8-7 & 4.46 ERA) for the Angels. Cobb has delivered scoreless two-hit efforts in two of his last three starts, an eight-inning no-decision against Pittsburgh on June 27 and a 7 2/3-inning 1-0 victory over Boston on July 8. He is 3-1 with a 2.38 ERA over his last six starts (Rays are 4-2) and has given up fewer than three ERs in five of the six. Cobb is 1-2 with a 6.51 ERA in five career starts against the Angels (Rays are 2-3), including a 4-0 loss on May 23 in which he gave up four runs on seven hits over 7 1/3 innings. Ramirez came into the 2017 having never started a major-league game but he is the team's leader in victories (eight) after making 17 starts prior to the All-Star break (Angels are 10-7). He beat Texas 3-0 in his last start before the break, allowing just two hits in six scoreless innings. Ramirez defeated Tampa Bay on May 22, when he allowed two runs and six hits over 6 2/3 innings (2.70 ERA). The pick: Cobb has been mentioned as someone the Rays could trade before the non-waiver trading deadline July 31 but Cobb's recent efforts have put the Rays in serious wild card contention and Tampa Bay would surely need both Archer and Cobb in the rotation if the team wants to compete for a playoff spot. This Cobb/Ramirez matchup has the markings of a pitchers duel. Make the Under an 8* play. |
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07-15-17 | BC v. Hamilton UNDER 50 | Top | 41-26 | Loss | -110 | 106 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: The 2-1 BC Lions will play at the 0-2 Hamilton Tiger-Cats Saturday at Tim Hortons Field. The Lions opened the season with a 30-27 home loss to Edmonton but comes into this game playing a third in a row on the road, after winning 28-15 at Toronto and 23-16 at Montreal.he Lions opened the season with a 30-27 home loss to Edmonton. QB Jonathon Jennings is completing 67.6 percent of his passes for 853 yards but has just two TD passes (also has thrown just one INT). BC's defense allowed 30 points in the team's season opener but has since allowed just 15 and 16 points in back-to-back road wins. BC was 12-6 last year and was one of the CFL's better defensive teams (allowed 25.2 PPG) but after three games in 2017, BC is allowing just 20.3 points to rank first among all teams. The Tiger-Cats could use a victory after opening with road losses at Toronto and Saskatchewant. Hamilton is allowing 34.5 points and 509.5 yards per game after two contests and is hoping a return home (first home contest of 2017) will help. Zach Collaros won the starting QB job but he's completing 61.6 percent for a modest 431 yards with one TD and one INT. The pick: A check of the record book reveals that a return home may not be a formula for success regarding the Tiger-Cats. Hamilton hasn’t won a home game since September 16 of last season, which is a stretch of five games, including a home playoff loss. As for BC, the Lions are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games, including 2-0 SU & ATS to open the 2017 season on the road. That BC defense has been impressive and Hamilton's offense leaves much to be desired, averaging a CFL-low 18.5 PPG. The Lions will be on the road for a third straight game, so I see a much safer play being on the total. Make the Under a 10*. |
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07-15-17 | Phillies v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: The Brewers went just 73-89 in 2016, finishing 30 1/2 games behind the Cubs in the NL Central. However, Milwaukee has been one of 2017's biggest surprises in the first half of the season, coming out of the All Star break with a 5 1/2 game lead over the Cubs and finding themselves atop the division. The All-Star break did nothing to slow down the Brewers' mojo, as they maintained their lead over the Cubs (Chicago won 9-8 on Friday) by winning 9-6 at home last night over MLB-worst Philadelphia Phillies. An eight-run second inning (powered by Ryan Braun's sixth career grand slam), was all Milwaukee needed to make it seven wins in its last eight games. Philadelphia remains mired in the NL East basement, as well as owning MLB's worst overall record (29-59), its worst road record (13-34) and its second-worst moneyline mark (minus-$2383). The pitching matchup: Aaron Nola (6-6 & 3.59 ERA) starts for the Phillies and Jimmy Nelson (8-4 & 3.30 ERA) for the Brewers. Nola has been Philly's best pitcher since the beginning of June but had his three-start winning streak snapped last time out as he suffered a hard-luck loss to San Diego on July 8, after allowing two runs on four hits in eight innings. He has given up a total of only five runs and recorded 34 strikeouts in 29 1/3 innings (1.53 ERA) over his last four starts and has yielded more than three runs just once in his last seven outings! Nola was superb in his two previous career starts against Milwaukee, allowing one run and striking out 16 over 13 innings while notching a pair of victories (0.69 ERA). Nelson comes into this contest having won each of his last three starts, including a road outing against the New York Yankees on Sunday in which he gave up three runs over five innings. Nelson has posted a 1-1 record and 6.89 ERA in three career outings against Philadelphia (team is 1-2). The pick: The Brewers are playing with supreme confidence (at least for now) and in Nelson, Milwaukee has a pitcher who has gone 4-0 with a 0.97 ERA and 45 strikeouts in 37 innings) over his last five Miller Park starts. His lone no-decision in that span came in a game in which Nelson tossed eight scoreless innings (11-0 KW ratio) but Milwaukee would lose 2-1 in 12 innings (Nelson's mound opponent was some guy named Kershaw). At first blush this looks like an under but is either pitcher really as good as he has looked lately? I think not. Nola's career ERA is 4.08, Nelson's is 4.16 plus Philly's bullpen ERA is 4.54 and Milwaukee's 4.04. Make the Over an 8* play. |
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07-14-17 | Indians v. A's UNDER 8 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 22 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up:The defending AL champion Indians have struggled at home in 2017, going 21-24. However, the team's 26-16 road record is good enough to give them a 21/2 game lead in the AL Central as the second half begins. The A's are just 39-50 (a whopping 21 games back of the Astros in the AL West), while they battle the 38-49 White Sox and 39-49 Tigers for the AL's worst record. The Cleveland Indians visit the Oakland Athletics on Friday for the opener of their three-game series, as the team begins the second half with a six-game trip to the Bay Area (three games at San Francisco will be next). It's a good opportunity to stretch the team's AL Central lead, drawing two last-place teams as all teams return to play after the All Star break: The pitching matchup: Carlos Carrasco (10-3 & 3.44 ERA) will start for the Indians and Sonny Gray (4-4 & 4.00 ERA) for the A's Carrasco has won five consecutive decisions, as well as seeing the Indians win 12 of his last 13 starts, overall. Cleveland is 14-3 in all of his starts in 2017, giving him MLB's fourth-best moneyline mark at plus-$818. Carrasco improved to 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA in five career appearances (four starts / teams are 3-1) against Oakland on May 29, when he gave up two runs on four hits in seven innings. Gray has produced three straight strong starts, going 2-1 while allowing five runs - four earned - over 21 innings during that span (1.71 ERA). Gray fell to 2-2 and saw his ERA rise to 4.00 in six career starts ((A's are 3-3) versus the Indians on May 30, when he was tagged for seven runs on nine hits over 4 2/3 innings at Cleveland. The pick: I wouldn't want to buck the Indians here but I also like the way Gray is beginning to find his form, after a late start to the season due to injury. That said, expecting the A's to reach Carrasco would be a stretch, considering he has a 7-1 record and 2.38 ERA in nine road starts (team is 8-1) while limiting opponents to a .197 batting average. Make the Under a 10*. |
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07-09-17 | Tigers v. Indians UNDER 8 | Top | 5-3 | Push | 0 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: The Tigers will attempt not to get swept in this three-game series at Cleveland tonight on ESPN. Detroit lost 11-2 on Friday and 4-0 on Saturday, falling 10 games below .500 (38-48) and nine games behind the AL Central-leading Indians, who are 47-39. The Tigers are 9-19 since June 8, while the defending AL champs are 16-8 since June 15. Cleveland leads the AL with a 3.77 team ERA, and their starting pitchers own a 1.96 ERA in their last seven games. Getting back to Detroit, manager Brad Ausmus is emphasizing that there is still the second half of the season to play. "It's a 162-game season and this team is built for 162 games," he said. "I'm confident the guys will bounce back." Methinks that Ausmus is 'whistling past the graveyard!' |
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07-08-17 | A's v. Mariners OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: Seattle finally halted an eight-game home losing streak with Friday's 7-2 victory over Oakland. Nelson Cruz drove in five runs and hit the 300th HR of his career to lead the way. Both teams are far behind the Astros in the AL West but as I often note, at this point of the season, the AL wild card race remains reasonably open. Either team could sure use a two-game sweep over the weekend, with 42-46 Seattle trailing the second wild card spot by four games and 38-49 Oakland finding itself 7 1/2 games back. |
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07-08-17 | Royals v. Dodgers UNDER 9 | Top | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: The Dodgers beat the Royals 4-1 in Friday's opener of this three-game IL series and have won 24 of their last 28 games heading into Saturday’s contest (Dodgers are a MLB-best 37-11 at home). The Kansas City Royals saw their four-game winning streak come to an end on Friday’s series opener but they've won 22 of their last 33 games to get within two games of the first-place Indians in the AL Central. |
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07-07-17 | A's v. Mariners OVER 8 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 105 | 15 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: Almost all AL teams remain within shouting distance of the two wild card spots available, as the 2017 season gets set for its four-day All Star break come Monday. The 41-46 Mariners may be 17 1/2 games back of the Astros in the AL West and the 38-48 A's find themselves 20 games back but Seattle is much more modest 4 1/2 games out of the final AL wild card spot, while the A's are seven-back (granted, it's a VERY crowed field!). The teams opened a four-game series Thursday night with the A's winning 7-4, which drops Seattle to 0-4 on its current homestand, as well as making it eight straight home losses for the Mariners. No way Seattle has any chance at a wild card spot if it doesn't turn around its fortunes at home. As for the A's, they've been an awful road team all season, as Thursday's win leaves them just 13-27 away from home on the season. The pitching staff: Sean Manaea (7-4 & 3.75 ERA) gets the nod for Oakland and James Paxton (6-3 & 3.27 ERA) for Seattle. Manaea settled for a no-decision against Atlanta on Sunday but continued his good pitching, allowing just two runs on six hits in a season-high 7 1/3 innings. He is now 6-2 since coming off the DL in mid-May, a span of 10 starts (A's are 7-3). He's given up more than three runs only twice in those 10 outings, although his first start back from the DL came on May 15 against the Mariners, when he allowed four runs on two hits and five walks in five innings in a 6-5 loss. He's 3-1 with a 4.50 ERA in five career starts (team is 3-2) against Seattle. Paxton halted a four-start win-less drought (he was 0-3 and the team 1-3) when he limited the Angels to one run on two hits over 6 1/3 innings at Los Angeles in a 5-3 win. Paxton is 2-0 with a 4.13 ERA in four career starts against the Athletics (team is 3-1), including a no-decision at Oakland on April 20 in which he surrendered five runs on nine hits over 4 1/3 Innings. The pick: Last night's game finished with 11 runs and 21 hits. Seattle pitching has now allowed 24 runs in its last three games and note that Paxton struggled in his lone appearance against the A's this season. Yes, Manaea is in a nice groove but he's no Kershaw. Oakland is allowing 5.38 RPG on the road in 2017 and the Mariners, despite their struggles at home, are averaging 5.07 RPG at Safeco. With neither bullpen offering much relief (Seattle's bullpen ERA is 4.31 and Oakland's is 4.97), the Over is a 10* play. |
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07-07-17 | Tigers v. Indians UNDER 9.5 | Top | 2-11 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: The 38-46 Detroit Tigers and the 45-39 Cleveland Indians open a three-game series at Progressive Field tonight, as MLB teams get ready for a four-day All Star break, beginning Monday. The Tigers capped a 5-4 homestand with a 6-2 win over the Giants on Thursday and enter this series seven games back of Cleveland. The Indians, the defending AL Champs, are clinging to first in the AL Central, leading the Royals by just one game and the Twins by 1 1/2. The team's home woes were not in evidence in Thursday's 11-2 rout of San Diego but that victory gives the Indians a poor 19-23 home mark. What a difference a year makes. The Indians went 53-28 at Progressive Field in 2016 (only the Cubs won more home games) and finished plus-$1230 against the moneyline. In stark contrast, the team's home moneyline mark in 2017 is minus-$22456, more than $1000 worse than MLB's second-worst home team's mark! The pitching matchup: Jordan Zimmermann (5-6 & 5.58 ERA) starts for Detroit and Carlos Carrasco (9-3 & 3.50 ERA) for Cleveland. Zimmermann allowed a four-run sixth against the Indians just this past Saturday, losing to Carrasco and the Indians 4-1. That makes him 0-2 in his last five outings (Tigers are 1-4). He has been plagued by the home run ball all season, surrendering four in his last three outings and 21 in 16 starts on the season. Zimmermann is 0-2 with a 10.67 ERA over three career starts against Cleveland (teams are 1-2). Carrasco allowed just one run on four hits with seven strikeouts on Saturday against the Tigers, improving to 4-0 in his last five starts overall (Indians are 5-0). He's 2-1 with a 2.29 ERA in three outings versus Detroit this season but just 7-7 with a 4.69 ERA against them in 17 career starts (teams are 9-8). The pick: In this quick pitching "re-hook" from Saturday, expect a similar effort from the starters. Zimmermann had thrown five scoreless inning until the sixth and as already noted, Carrasco yielded just one run on four hits with seven strikeouts in seven innings. So what else is new? Carrasco has allowed two runs or fewer in 11 of his 16 starts this season. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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07-06-17 | A's v. Mariners UNDER 9.5 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: Oakland has endured slides of six, four and six contests since June 7, with a pair of four-game winning streaks in between, a model of inconsistency. The A's visit Seattle tonight to open a four-game series with the Mariners off back-to-back home wins over the White Sox, giving them a 38-45 record overall, leaving them in last-place in the AL West (21 games back of Houston). Seattle welcomes Oakland to town but the Mariners are on a seven-game home losing streak. Seattle allowed four runs in the first inning last night to Kansas City but was able to take a 6-4 lead, before losing 9-6 in 10 innings. Seattle sits just 41-45 on the season (17 1/2 games back of Houston) but can hold out a sliver of hope, as the Mariners are just four games out of the final wild card spot in the AL. However, to say the least, it's a crowded field. The pitching matchup: A pair of rookie hurlers take the mound tonight, Paul Blackburn (0-0 & 0.00 ERA) for Oakland and Sam Gaviglio (3-3 & 3.48 ERA) for Seattle. Blackburn was impressive in his major-league debut on Saturday, allowing just one unearned run on three hits over six innings of a no-decision against Atlanta (Braves won 4-3). Before getting called up, he posted a 5-6 record and 3.05 ERA in 15 appearances (14 starts) for Triple-A Nashville. Blackburn will be starting against his former organization, as he was acquired from Seattle in November for Danny Valencia. Gaviglio will be making his 10th start of 2017 in this one but comes in win-less in his last three, despite allowing three runs or fewer each time. He suffered a second straight loss Saturday, when he gave up three runs on five hits over a career-high 6 1/3 innings in a 4-0 road loss against the Los Angeles Angels. Gaviglio will be facing Oakland for the first time. The pick: Blackburn sure looked good in his debut and let's note that Gaviglio has worked at least five innings in each of his nine starts in his rookie season. Gaviglio should have little trouble with the A's, who are 13-27 on the road, averaging just 3.92 RPG. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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07-06-17 | BC v. Montreal OVER 49.5 | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -115 | 57 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: The BC Lions and Montreal Alouettes meet Thursday in CFL action at Molson Stadium in Montreal. Both teams have opened the 2017 season 1-1. The Lions opened with a 30-27 home loss to Edmonton but then rebounded with an impressive 28-15 road win at Toronto over the Argonauts. BC has scored 27 and 28 points in the season's first two games but QB Jonathon Jennings has just one TD pass (also just one INT), after throwing for 27 last season, against a modest 15 INTs. The BC defense is coming off an excellent effort, allowing just 15 points at Toronto on yards 349 yards. The Lions allowed 25.2 PPG in 2016 while going 12-6 and after two contests, have allowed just 22.5 PPG . The Alouettes edged Saskatchewan 17-16 at home to open the season but then lost 23-19 last week at Edmonton. QB Darian Durant is completing 61.8 percent of his passes for a modest 399 yards with three TDs and one INT, as Montreal's offense is averaging a league-low 18.0 PPG among teams to have played each of the first two weeks. Defensively, Montreal is allowing 19.5 points and 383.5 YPG. The pick: Montreal was no match for BC in 2016, as the Lions scored 38 points in both meetings, winning by 11 points in BC and 20 points in Montreal. The Lions are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 road games, while the Alouettes are only 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games. I expect BC to have little trouble scoring again in this one. As for Montreal, the Alouettes traded for Duarnt prior to the 2017 season, getting him from Saskatchewan where he had been a fixture. He was expected to give Montreal's offense a significant boost but that has yet to be the case. How about a break out game here? History tells us seven of the last nine meetings between these two teams in Montreal have gone over, so why not? Make the Over a 10* play. |
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07-05-17 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: The Arizona Diamondbacks were hoping to close the gap on the first-place Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West with a three-game series that began July 4th at Dodger Stadium. Things didn't go as planned Tuesday night, as a 4-3 loss to the Dodgers dropped the D'backs 3 1/2 games back of LA. Catching LA will not be easy, as the 56-29 Dodgers have won 21 of their past 25 games and own a major-league-best 34-11 home record, including 13-1 in the past 14 games at Dodger Stadium. LA owns a plus-154 run differential, which would tie the 1976 Cincinnati Reds for second best among NL teams heading into the All-Star break. Getting back to Arizona, it's been a remarkable turn around from 2016, when the team finished 69-93, 18 games out of a wild card spot. Arizona comes into tonight's game 52-32 (No. 1 wild card spot), which gives them a 10 1/2-game cushion in the wild card chase! |
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07-05-17 | Red Sox v. Rangers UNDER 11 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 108 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: Boston rookie Andrew Benintendi knocked in the go-ahead runs in Monday's 7-5 Red Sox win in 11 innings, then went 5-for-5 with two HRs, six RBI and four runs scored in July 4th's 11-4 rout of the Rangers (Aaron Judge, who?). Boston has now won six straight (eight of nine) and will go for a three-game sweep of the Rangers in Texas on Wednesday night. The Rangers have now lost three straight and six of their last seven, with the team's pitching staff allowing at least five runs in each of those six setbacks. At 40-44, Texas now trails Houston by 17 games in the AL West. Meanwhile, after some early struggles, 49-35 Boston now leads the Yankees by four full games in the AL East |
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07-04-17 | Red Sox v. Rangers UNDER 9 | Top | 11-4 | Loss | -113 | 20 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: The Boston Red Sox are beginning to show more of a consistent offense. The team's 7-5 win (11 innings) over Texas in Monday’s series opener gives Boston five consecutive victories in which the team has scored at least six runs games. While the Yankees have struggled since mid-June, Boston has surged in that same time frame and Monday's win keeps the first-place Red Sox three games clear of the rival New York Yankees in the AL East (Boston is 48-35 and New York 44-37). The Rangers are stuck in the AL West with the Astros (owners of MLB's best record at 56-27) and have lost five of their last six to fall three games under .500 (40-43) and 16 games back of Houston. The pitching matchup: David Price (3-2 & 4.61 ERA) takes the mound for Boston and Yu Darvish (6-6 & 3.11 ERA) for Texas. Price got a late start to the 2017 season due to injury and has also been sidetracked by getting into fights with local reporters and broadcasters. However, he is beginning to pitch well, entering this July 4 contest with a string of four straight starts of allowing three or fewer ERs. He matched season highs with seven strikeouts and seven innings pitched against Minnesota on Thursday and did not walk a batter in a 6-3 win. Price has had much success against Texas in his career though, going 3-9 with a 5.42 ERA in 17 starts (teams are better though with an 8-9 record, despite that high ERA). Darvish has pitched well lately, allowing a total of just two ERs over 13 innings in the last two starts. Darvish may be just 6-6 on the season but he has surrendered more than three runs just once in his last 13 outings and is holding opponents to a .205 batting average. Darvish hasn't faced Boston since 2014 and is 1-1 with a 3.63 ERA and 35 strikeouts in 22 1/3 innings over three starts against the Red Sox in his career (Texas is 2-1). The pick: Two All-Stars caliber pitchers take the mound in this one and both have pitched well as of late. With that in mind, the Under is a 10* play. |
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07-04-17 | Giants v. Tigers UNDER 10 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: The San Francisco Giants are suffering through a 'nightmare' season in 2017 (33-51, 22 games back in the NL West) but will take a season-high six wins in a row into this three-game IL series in Detroit against the Tigers. Like the Giants, the Tigers had Monday off and are also a last-place team at 36-48. Detroit has lost 11 of 15 to find itself saddled with its worst record at the 81-game mark since 2003 but the Tigers are a much more modest eight games out of first in the AL Central plus almost every AL team remains alive in the wild card chase at this stage of the season. The pitching matchup: Matt Cain (3-7 & 5.46 ERA) takes the mound for San Francisco and Michael Fulmer (7-6 & 3.19 ERA) for Detroit. Cain hasn't won since an 8-4 triumph over the Dodgers back on May 15 and saw his win-less stretch extend to eight starts last Tuesday (he's 0-6 and the Giants 2-6) after receiving a no-decision on the heels of allowing three runs on six hits in six innings versus Colorado (SF won 4-3). That game vs. the Rockies concluded a disastrous June in which Cain posted a 7.77 ERA and 2.14 WHIP. Fulmer snapped a three-start losing skid on Thursday in a 7-3 victory over Kansas City. The 2016 AL rookie of the year allowed just two earned runs and struck out seven and was one out shy of a complete game. The pick: The Tigers were 19-7 in Fulmer's starts last year and his moneyline mark of plus-$1292 ws 6th-best in all of MLB but Detroit is a more modest 8-7 in his 2017 starts. However, he happens to be the Tigers' lone All-Star representative. As noted, Cain's off an 'ugly' June but all of a sudden, the Giants are playing much better with the team's pitching staff leading the way by allowing just 17 runs in their six consecutive wins (2.83 per). Expect a decent effort out of Cain and Fulmer sure should be able to handle a San Francisco lineup which ranks 28th in runs scored (3.94 per) plus dead-last (30th) in OPS (.679) and HRs (70). Make the under an 8* play. |
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07-03-17 | Marlins v. Cardinals UNDER 9.5 | Top | 6-14 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cardinals went 3-8 from June 13 through June 24, clinching the team's first sub-.500 month since June of 2016! However, the Cards beat the Pirates 8-4 on June 25 and capped a 5-1 run to end June with Friday night's 8-1 home win over the Nationals. St. Louis ended June 13-16 and the 139 runs the Cards surrendered in June represented the team's highest one month total since May 2012. However, the Cards silenced the National League's most proficient offense on Friday and Saturday, beating the Nats 8-1 and 2-1. The Cardinals were after their fifth straight victory Sunday night on ESPN but the Nats scored seven runs on 10 hits and Scherzer struck out 12 St. Louis batters in seven scoreless innings as the Nats won 7-2. The Cards continue their 10-game homestand when the Marlins come to St. Louis for four games. Miami halted a four-game skid by posting a 10-3 victory at Milwaukee on Sunday. The Marlins are just 36-44 (11 games back of the Nats in the NL East) and finish their 10-game road trip this weekend in San Francisco. Miami is the site of this year's All Star game (Tuesday, July 11). The pitching matchup: Jeff Locke (0-4 & 5.52 ERA) will start for Miami and Adam Wainwright (8-5 & 5.17 ERA) for St. Louis. Locke has made six starts in 2017 and has yet to find the win column (Marlins are also 0-6). Locke has made 11 career appearances (10 starts / teams are 5-5) against St. Louis, going 2-4 with a 4.98 ERA. Wainwright has had a roller-coaster season but comes in having allowed just two runs in each of his last two starts. Wainwright is 5-2 with two shutouts and a 2.37 ERA in 11 career games (nine starts / team is 7-2) against the Marlins, including a no-decision at Miami on May 9 in which he allowed four runs over 5 1/3 innings. The pick: Wainwright has been just awful in eight road starts this season, posting an 8.36 ERA. However, he's 5-1 with a 2.64 ERA in eight home outings in 2017! Yes, Locke is win-less in six starts this season but he's pitched better than his record, as he's allowed three ERs or less in five of his six outings. Make the Under a 10* play |
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07-03-17 | Orioles v. Brewers OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -130 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: The 40-41 Orioles begin a four-game, home-and-home IL series with the Brewers, having won five of their past eight. Baltimore beat the Tampa Bay Rays 7-1 on Sunday to salvage the finale of a three-game series. Once upon a time, Baltimore was 22-10 and leading the AL East but prior to winning five of its last eight, Baltimore had lost 28 of its previous 41 games. Currently, the Orioles are 6 1/2 games back of the first-place Red Sox. The 44-40 Brewers remain in first place in the NL Central but their lead was cut to two games over the Cubs after Sunday's 10-3 loss to the Marlins. |
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07-02-17 | Nationals v. Cardinals UNDER 7.5 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cardinals went 3-8 from June 13 through June 24, clinching the team's first sub-.500 month since June of 2016! However, the Cards beat the Pirates 8-4 on June 25 and capped a 5-1 run to end June with Friday night's 8-1 home win over the Nationals. St. Louis ended June 13-16 and the 139 runs they Cardfs have surrendered represented the team's highest one month total since May 2012. However, all the Cards have done so far this weekend is silence the National League's most proficient offense. The Washington Nationals average 5.53 RPG, although following Friday's 8-1 loss, the Nats were again silenced on Saturday by the Cards' Michael Wacha who had a season-high nine strikeouts over six innings of a 2-1 St. Louis win. The Cardinals now seek their fifth straight victory and a three-game sweep of the NL's best road team Sunday night on ESPN . The Nats are 25-17 away from home and despite scoring just two runs in the first two contests of this series, are averaging 5.45 RPG on the road. |
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07-01-17 | Nationals v. Cardinals UNDER 9 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cardinals went 3-8 from June 13 through June 24, clinching the team's first sub-.500 month since June of 2016! However, the Cards beat the Pirates 8-4 on June 25 and capped a 5-1 run to end June with last night's 8-1 home win over the Nationals. Yes, St. Louis ended June 13-16 but three of the team's five victories have come over 50-31 Arizona and 47-33 Washington. A big reason for the team's recent surge is a pitching staff which has allowed four or fewer runs in each of the wins and allowed just one run on six hits Friday to the Nationals, who lead the NL in runs scored (3.39 per). The Nats have injury issues at the top of its lineup with Trea Turner (fractured wrist) Aand dam Eaton (knee) on the disabled list. However, the Nats still own an 8 1/2 game lead in the NL East. The pitching matchup: Gio Gonzalez (7-2 & 2.87 ERA) takes the mound for the Nats and Michael Wacha (4-3 & 4.50 ERA) for the Cards. Gonzalez is having a very solid season, as he has allowed three or fewer runs in 14 of his 16 starts, including each of the last seven. Gonzalez faced St. Louis back on April 11 and allowed two runs (one earned) on six hits without walking a batter in seven innings to earn an 8-3 win. Wacha has not had much consistency in 2017 but bounced back from two sub-par outings with an 8-2 win over Cincinnati on Monday, scattering one run on five hits over six innings. However, he did not record an out in the fifth inning in either of his two previous starts, surrendering a total of nine runs (six earned) on 16 hits in eight innings (6.75 ERA). That said, Wacha is 2-2 with a 1.57 ERA in four career starts against Washington Gonzalez owns a splendid 2.87 ERA but yet, Washington is only 9-7 in his 16 starts this season. In keeping with that, although he owns a 2.86 career ERA against the Cards, his teams are just 5-4 in nine starts. Throw in Wacha's 1.57 ERA in four starts against the Nats and it's a 10* on the Under. |
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07-01-17 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays UNDER 8.5 | Top | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: There can be no doubt that Boston misses David Ortiz but after a less-than-impressive start to the 2017 season (Red Sox were just 21-21 through May 20), Boston has gone 24-14 and caught the slumping Yankees in the AL East. The Red Sox aren't hitting at the same rate they were with David Ortiz in the middle of the lineup last season but they are developing new strengths. Boston's bullpen ERA of 2.88 is the second-best in all of MLB and that unit gave them five scoreless innings to close out Friday's series opener with Toronto, 7-4 in 11 innings. Closer Craig Kimbrel pitched a perfect 11th inning on Friday to increase his AL-leading save total to 23. Toronto, a team which has played in the last two ALCS matchups, struggled out of the gate by going 7-18 in April but got things turned around although it has never been able to reach .500. The Blue Jays have gotten to within one game of that mark often but keep falling back. Recently, the team has lost six of eight to fall five games under .500 (37-42) and into the AL East basement, 7 1/2 games back of Boston. |
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06-30-17 | Dodgers v. Padres OVER 7.5 | Top | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 26 h 47 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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06-30-17 | Phillies v. Mets UNDER 8 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: I guess one could call the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies NL East rivals, as the two teams get set to square off in the opener of a three-game series at Citi Field Friday night. However, the Mets are going nowhere at 36-42 (10 1/2 games back of the first-place Nats) and the Phillies check in with MLB's worst record, at 26-51. The Mets are back home after a 10-game road trip. New York appeared headed for disaster when the Mets opened the trip by getting outscored 36-11 in a four-game sweep at the hands of the Los Angeles Dodgers but they won five of the last six games, sweeping the San Francisco Giants and taking two of three in Miami from the Marlins.The Phillies were off Thursday, a day after they completed a two-game sweep of the Mariners in Seattle with a come-from-behind 5-4 victory. Even with those back-to-back wins, the Phillies still own MLB's worst road record at 12-31. A win Friday would give the Phillies only their third winning streak of longer than two games this season. |
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06-29-17 | Dodgers v. Angels UNDER 8 | Top | 6-2 | Push | 0 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: The Dodgers and Angels conclude their home-and-home four-game IL series Thursday night in Anaheim. The Angels won last 3-2, after the two LA teams split a pair of 4-0 finals at Dodger Stadium Monday and Tuesday. The Dodgers own the NL's best record at 52-28, while the Angels are stuck in the AL West and at 42-40, have little chance of catching the Astros, who own MLB's best record at 53-26. The Angels trail the Astros by 12 1/2 games but almost every AL team is alive in the wild card chase and the Angels are among a group of seven teams all within four games of each other, vying for two spots. |
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06-29-17 | Ottawa v. Calgary UNDER 58 | Top | 39-43 | Loss | -110 | 57 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: Ottawa upset Calgary in last year's Grey Cup final, 39-33 in OT, as nine-point underdogs. The two teams met last Friday in Ottawa and the game ended in a 31-31 tie. I guess that's not too surprising as the teams also tied in one of their two regular season meetings last year as well, 256-26 in Week 3. They trre back at each other again tonight, this time in Calgary. Both QBs threw for 300 yards last Friday, as Ottawa's Harris threw for exactly 300 yards (3 TDs and 1 INT) and Calgary's Mitchell passed for 376 yards (2 TDs & 0 INTs). Bo Levi Mitchell is the more dangerous QB, as he now has 34 TD passes in his last 18 games. Obviously, both teams allowed 31 points last week, with Calgary allowing 416 yards and Ottawa 441. |
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06-29-17 | Cardinals v. Diamondbacks OVER 10 | Top | 10-4 | Win | 102 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cards won 4-3 on Wednesday, after losing 6-5 in Arizona on Tuesday. It's the rubber match of the three-game series this afternoon, as the Diamondbacks seek to bounce back from a loss, just their fourth in the last 20 games! Arizona remained 1 1/2 games behind the first-place Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West, as the Angels edged the Dodgers 3-2 last night in Anaheim. The Cards check in at only 36-41 but with no team playing all that well in the NL Central, sit a modest 3 1/2 games out of first place. The pitching matchup: Lance Lynn (5-5 & 3.86 ERA) starts for St. Louis and Patrick Corbin (6-7 & 4.89 ERA) for Arizona. Lynn's 2017 season had been solid until his last two starts, in which he's lost to Baltimore and Pittsburgh, giving up seven runs in each contest. It sure hasn't helped that he's allowed six HRs in the two games. Lynn is 3-0 with a 2.72 ERA in nine career appearances (seven starts / team is 5-2) against the Diamondbacks in his career. Corbin lost to Philadelphia in his last outing, despite giving up one run on eight hits over 6 2/3 innings. Like his team, Corbin has fared well at home, going 5-2 with a 3.19 ERA (he's 1-5 with a 7.84 ERA in six road starts). Corbin is 1-1 with a 5.00 ERA in three career starts against the Cardinals (teams are 1-2). The pick: Lynn had allowed two or fewer ERs in 10 of his first 13 starts before his recent troubles (see above) but I'm not ready to buy that those troubles are behind him just yet. Wednesday's loss was just Arizona's third in its last 18 home games and in going 30-11 at home in 2017, the D'backs are averaging 6.20 RPG at Chase Field. Corbin has been solid at home (especially compared to his awful road record) but he's hardly a "shut down" starter. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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06-29-17 | Rangers v. Indians UNDER 9.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: The Indians have won two of the first three in this four-game home series with the Rangers, after Wednesday's 5-2 victory. After getting swept in a three-game series by the Twins last weekend, the Indians now wrap up a seven-game homestand with a chance to finish 3-4. The Rangers were 32-32 back on June 13 and with last night's loss, find themselves 7-7 over their last 14 and at 39-39 on the season, a whopping 13 1/2 games out of first in the AL West. Meanwhile, the 41-36 Indians are back on top of the AL Central at 41-36, by a half-game over the Twins. The pitching matchup: Andrew Cashner (3-6 & 3.50 ERA) takes the mound for Texas and Corey Kluber (6-2 & 3.24 ERA) for Cleveland. Cashner will be activated off the disabled list to make the start on Thursday. He has been on the DL since June 15 with a left oblique strain. In his last three starts prior to going on the DL, Cashner was 1-2 with a 5.29 ERA and going back further, was 3-3 with 4.50 ERA in his previous six. Cashner's made just one career start against the Indians and it didn't go well, allowing six runs on six hits along with six walks in a 6-2 loss while pitching for Miami last season. Corey Kluber is unbeaten in five starts (he's 3-0 but the team just 3-2) since spending nearly a month on the disabled list. He was overpowering in his last start against Minnesota, registering a season-high 13 strikeouts while permitting two unearned runs and three hits over seven innings. It was the third consecutive start with a double-digit strikeout total. Kuber is 2-1 with a 4.36 ERA in five career starts vs. Texas (teams are 4-1). The pick: We can't be sure about Cashner in his first start since June 14 but he does own a respectable 3.79 ERA in seven road starts this season. As for Kluber, he's in excellent form (1.29 ERA over his last five starts), so the Under is a 10* play. |
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06-28-17 | A's v. Astros UNDER 9.5 | Top | 8-11 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: The Astros may own MLB's best overall record (52-26) but their play at home in Minute Maid Park has been sub-par. Tuesday night was another example as Houston fell 6-4 to the Oakland A's, who even with the win own just a 13-25 road record. The Astros' three-run, ninth-inning rally fell short last night and Houston is now a modest 23-17 at home, compared to a MLB-best 29-9 on the road! Houston has five more games at Minute Maid in this homestand, two with the A's and then three with the Yankees. After going 1-for-10 with runners in scoring position while stranding 10, Houston must do better. One would think, the struggling A's give them an opportunity to get better.. |
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06-27-17 | Angels v. Dodgers UNDER 9 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 22 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: The Los Angeles Angels Dodgers opened their home-and-home four game IL series with the LA Angels Monday night at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers came in on a 10-game winning streak, as well as an 11-game winning streak at Dodger Stadium, where they were a major league-best 32-10. They also entered Monday's contest having homered in 17 straight games to match the Los Angeles club record set back in 1960. However, all streaks were ended last night as the Angels came away with a 4-0 victory. It's highly unlikely that the Angels will catch the 52-25 Houston Astros in the AL West (currently trail by 12 1/2 games!) but they are starting to resemble a legitimate wild-card contender. The Angels extended their winning streak to three games on Monday and at 41-39, have moved within one game of Minnesota for the second wild card spot. Getting back to the Dodgers, they still own the best record in the National League (51-27) and lead the West by one game over Arizona. The pitching matchup: Jesse Chavez (5-7 & 5.15 ERA) takes the mound for the Angels and Kenta Maeda (5-3 & 4.62 ERA) for the Dodgers. Chavez escaped with a no-decision after allowing five runs on seven hits in four innings of the Angels' 10-5 victory at Yankee Stadium on Thursday and that leaves him 1-2 with a 6.10 ERA in his last six starts, allowing 40 hits over 31 innings. Surprisingly, the Angels are 4-2 in that span. Chavez posted a 4.21 ERA in 23 relief appearances with the Dodgers last season after being acquired at the trade deadline from Toronto and is 1-1 with a 3.32 ERA in 11 games (two starts / teams are 1-1) against them. Maeda last started a game at Cincinnati on June 18, when he allowed one run, three hits and one walk while striking out five in five innings of an 8-7 victory. His only appearance since that start was when he pitched a scoreless seventh inning in the Dodgers' 6-1 win against Colorado on Friday. Maeda allowed four runs on five hits in four innings of a 7-6 loss to the Angels back on May 16, 2016 (0-1 & 9.00 ERA) in his only appearance against them. The pick: Don't expect the Dodgers to be shut out again by the Angels but do expect another low-scoring contest. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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06-26-17 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 17 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: The Phillies took the opener of this four-game series in Arizona but the D'backs won on both Saturday and Sunday, with yesterday's win taking 11 innings. Arizona's 2-1 victory gives the D'backs a 28-10 record at home (only the Dodgers own a better home-field mark) and 11 wins in their last 13 games, overall. The D'backs trail the Dodgers by 2 1/2 games in the NL West but do own MLB's top moneyline mark (plus-$1964). First baseman Paul Goldschmidt had two hits and a RBI on Sunday and is hitting .423 with five HRs and 18 RBI over his last 12 games. He leads the team with a .332 BA and leads all of MLB with 65 RBI. As for the Phillies, they head into Monday's series finale with MLB's worst overall record (24-50), its worst road record (10-30) and its second-worst moneyline mark (minus-$2123). |
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06-25-17 | Pirates v. Cardinals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: The St. Louis Cardinals went 12-12 in April and followed that up by going 13-13 in May. That's consistent but not exactly what one expects from a franchise which has made the playoffs in 12 of the previous 17 seasons. Then again, the Cards' April and May records look pretty good these days, as after dropping the first two of this three-game home series with the Pirates, St. Louis gets set to host Pittsburgh Sunday night on ESPN having gone only 8-15 in June. The Cards lost 7-3 last night, the 10th time this month they have surrendered at least six runs. The Cardinals are 3-8 their last 11, clinching the team's first sub-.500 month since June 2016! Meanwhile, the Pirates have won nine of 14 and guaranteed themselves a series win at a venue where they had dropped seven straight prior to Friday's triumph. Pittsburgh is now 35-40, one game better than the 33-40 Cards and only four games back of the NL Central-leading Brewers.The pitching matchup: Chad Kuhl (2-6 & 5.46 ERA) gets the nod for Pittsburgh and Mike Leake (5-6 & 3.03 ERA) gets the call for St. Louis. Kuhl ended a 12-start win-less streak this past Tuesday at Milwaukee, as he allowed just two runs on seven hits while striking out six in Pittsburgh's 7-3 win. Kuhl pitched just five inning sin the win (he was 0-6 and the Pirates 2-10 in his previous 12 starts) and hasn't worked past the fifth inning in any of his last 11 outings. Kuhl is 0-2 with a 4.85 ERA in three career starts against the Cards (team is 0-3). Leake is off a solid outing last Tuesday, allowing just one run on three hits over six innings of an 8-1 victory. He did not figure in Tuesday's decision but the outing did halt a four-start losing streak in which he owned a 6.20 ERA. Leake has seen the Pirates quite a bit in his career (29 starts), going 10-5 with a 3.29 ERA, although his teams are just 13-16.
The pick: Kuhl has not pitched well in 2017 but did have one of his best starts of the season on April 18 at St. Louis, giving up two runs on three hits over six innings. As for Leake, he's looked good in his last outing, after that awful four-game losing stretch. However, prior to that mini-slump, Leake owned a 1.91 ERA over his first nine starts of 2017. Pittsburgh/St. Louis games have been tight in 2017, as Saturday's 7-3 Pittsburgh win marked the first time in five meetings this season the outcome was decided by more than one run. Expect another close and low-scoring one tonight, making the Under a 10* play. |
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06-24-17 | Rockies v. Dodgers UNDER 7 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 115 | 15 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: The Dodgers opened their three-game series with the Rockies last night, winning 6-1. The victory gives LA eight wins in a row, as well as 14 in the team's last 15 games. The Dodgers have surged to the top of the NL West at 49-25 (the team's 30-10 home record is a MLB-best) and LA's run differential of plus-128 is 18 runs better than that of Houston, which owns MLB's best record (50-25). The Rockies have now lost three straight and are 47-29, leaving them in a virtual tie with the D'backs, 2 1/2 games back of the Dodgers. The pitching matchup: Tyler Chatwood (6-7 & 4.08 ERA) will get the call for Colorado and he draws LA's Clayton Kershaw (10-2 & 2.61 ERA). Chatwood has had his troubles at home in 2017 (6.39 ERA in seven starts) but he has been decidedly better away from Coors Field this season, going 4-3 with a 2.41 ERA in eight road starts. Chatwood is 4-7 with a 3.95 ERA in 12 career starts versus the Dodgers (teams are 4-8). Kershaw was able to get a win this past Monday at home against the New York Mets, despite surrendering six runs and a career-high four HRs over 6 1/3 innings. The three-time Cy Young Award winner has allowed a career-high 17 HRs but he alos owns a 115-17 KW ratio over 103 1/3 frames. Kershaw has gone 20-6 with a 3.13 ERA in 35 career starts against Colorado (Dodgers are 26-9). The pick: In Kershaw's 35 career starts against the Rockies, he's held them to a 222 opponents BA. He faces a Colorado lineup which was outscored 26-8 in back-to-back losses to Arizona before opening its nine-game road trip with a thud on Friday, scoring a single run on three hits. Throw in Chatwood's 2.41 ERA in eight road starts in 2017 and we have a 10* play on the under. |
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06-24-17 | Edmonton v. BC UNDER 58 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 81 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: The Edmonton Eskimos and BC Lions meet Saturday in CFL action at the BC Place. The Eskimos went 10-8 last season and the Lions, 12-6. Both teams won their first playoff game but then fell in their second try, Edmonton lost 35-23 at Ottawa in the East Final and BC lost 42-15 at Calgary in the West Final. The teams split two regular season games last year, with each winning at home (Edmonton 27-23 and then BC, 32-25). Mike Reilly returns at QB for the Eskimos, after throwing for 5,554 yards and 28 TDs (completed 70.3 %), easily his best season of his CFL career. The Lions also return their starting QB in Jonathon Jennings, who is is back after throwing for more than 5,200 yards and 27 TDs while completing 67 percent of his passes in his first real season as a starter. Of the two teams, Edmonton returns enough talent to be considered a serious Grey Cup title contender. The pick: As noted, the home team won both meetings last season and in fact, the home team has won the last six meetings between Edmonton and BC (the road team hasn't won a game since June of 2014 in this series). Edmonton finished last season as the CFL's second-highest scoring team (30.5 PPG) and BC as its third-highest scoring one (30.3). However, it took BC a few games to find its way, as after three 2016 contests, BC final scores had averaged only 36.0 PPG last season. Also note that in Edmonton's first two road games of 2016, those contests averaged a modest 39.5 PPG. By year's end, these should again be high-scoring teams. However, here in Week 1, when these teams have seen their last five meetings decided by seven points or less, the Under is a 10* play. |
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