For any resources you could need like sports handicapping odds, handicapping stats, schedules, or handicappers free picks and tips please click on any of the links on the right hand side of this page.
CLICK A CAPPERS NAME TO SEE THEIR PREMIUM DAILY EXPERT PLAYS + PREDICTIONS!
Schedule: NFL | CFB | MLB | NBA | CBB | NHL
WANT FREE SPORTS PICKS to your inbox? | Newsletter Sign-UP!
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11-14-17 | Raptors v. Rockets OVER 218.5 | Top | 129-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: The 10-3 Rockets will take to their home floor (Toyota Center) tonight looking for their seventh straight win. Houston is averaging 120.2 PPG during its winning streak with an average victory margin of 17.7 points and hopes to "keep pace" with the Warriors, who won their seventh in a row last night to move to 11-3. Houston's opponent will be the 7-5 Toronto Raptors, who opened a three-game road trip Sunday in Boston, losing 95-94. Toronto. Losing at Boston by one point is nothing to be ashamed of, as the Raptors nearly won the game but guard DeMar DeRozan's turnaround jumper with two seconds left was off the mark (FYI...Boston currently owns a 12-game winning streak). However, Toronto can't be happy about establishing a season low for points in the loss. DeRozan (24.7-3.5-4.2) was just 8-of-22 shooting but scored 24 points, the 10th time this season he scored 24 or more in a game (12 games). PG Lowry (13.4-4.8-6.6), PF Ibaka (13.3 & 5.6) and center Valanciunas (10.2 & 7.6) are also in double figures but note the depth. Toronto also has six players averaging between 5.8 and 8.8 PPG, as the Raptors rank 8th in scoring at 108.8 PPG. Houston: The Rockets are still waiting for Chris Paul to get back on he court but they sure haven't missed him. James Harden is averaging 35.8 points and 11.5 assists during the streak and is averaging 30.2-4.9-10.2 on the season. Houston's fast-paced approach is clicking and the team has led by double digits at the end of the first quarter in each of its past five games. "It shows the character of our team to get out to good starts and try to control the game early on," shooting guard Eric Gordon told reporters. "That's what we've been doing." Gordon is taking advantage of more "PT" with Paul out and is averaging 22.9 PPG. Center Clint Capela had 20 points and 17 rebounds in the romp over the Pacers and already has eight double-doubles, averaging 13.3 & 11.5 on the season. The Rockets rank third in the league with 111.1 PPG. The pick: The Rockets rank first in the league in offensive rating (117.7) and rebound percentage (54.7), second to the Golden State Warriors in net rating (18.1) and fourth in defensive rating (99.6) during their winning streak. I noted above that they are averaging 120.2 points during their cureent streak and will add here that they are also making (17.6) and attempting (46) more three-pointers per game than any team in the league. Toronto is no offensive slouch and off that 94-point effort against Boston, will "run with" the Rockets in this one. Make the Over a 10* play. |
|||||||
11-13-17 | Charlotte v. Oklahoma State UNDER 161 | Top | 65-83 | Win | 100 | 22 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: The Charlotte 49ers opened with 116- 76 rout over Methodist but know the going gets a little tougher here when the 49ers visit Gallagher-Iba Arena in Stillwater tonight, when they square off against the Oklahoma State Cowboys. OSU opened this year on a high note with a 78-47 win over Pepperdine. Charlotte began last season 6-2 but lost seven of its next eight games and by year's end was a disappointing 13-17. The Cowboys started out 10-2 last season but a six-game slide almsot doomed tehir season. However, they righted the ship by winning 10 of their next 11 games, before losing four straight to end the season. That final loss came 92-91 to Michigan in the first round of the NCAAs. Charlotte: The 49ers head into the current season optimistic that they can be a contender in C-USA this year. PG Davis (19.6 & 4.1 APG last year) has developed into a quality PG and his backcourt partner, White (11.3 & 4.0). complements him well. The versatile 6-7 Ajukwa averaged 11.4 & 4.8 last season and led the 49ers with 18 points in the team's season-opener. A 6-9 freshman from Serbia, Supica, came off the bench to match Ajukwa's 18 points, making 8 of 8 FG attempts. Senior guard Price was in the starting lineup with Davis and White and added 14 points. Oklahoma State: Lindy Waters, a 6-6 sophomore, led Oklahoma State's starting-five in scoring with 14 points, seven rebounds and three assists, while Thomas Dziagwa led the bench players with 12 points. PG Evans (19.2 & 6.4 APG) was drafted by the NBA plus Forte (13.3) and Hammonds (8.1 & 4.9) have both graduated (Hammonds was the only player to start every game LY!). More bad news is the team's second-leading scorer from last yer, Jeffrey Carroll (17.5 & 6.6), is being held out while allegations regarding illegal payments are sorted out. The pick: OSU has lost much off last year's team and the 49ers are not the high-scoring team we saw in their first game vs. a 'cupcake.' OSU always plays good D and the Under is a 10* play, here. |
|||||||
11-12-17 | Patriots v. Broncos OVER 45.5 | Top | 41-16 | Win | 100 | 71 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: The New England Patriots opened the current season 2-2 and some were questioning whether the team's long stretch of dominance was nearing an end. However, the Pats come off a bye week having won four in a row (3-1 ATS) to assume their typical spot atop the AFC East. Meanwhile, the Denver Bronocs opened 3-1 before taking an early bye (Week 5). No reason to blame that bye week but the fact is, the Broncos returned to lose at home in Week 6 to the then win-less Giants, with things going from bad to worse, since. Denver welcomes New England to Mile High on the Sunday night on a four-game slide (0-4 ATS), having hit rock bottom in last Sunday's 51-23 loss at Philadelphia. Wentz threw four TD passes and the Philly running attack gashed the Broncos for 199 yards on the ground.New England: Brady continues to maze, entering this contest completing 66.7 percent of his passes with 16 TDs and just two INTs for a 106.5 QB rating (Pats are No. 1 in the NFL, averaging 302.1 YPG passing). New England's running game remains average (109.0 YPG ranks 16th) but along with Brady's excellence, the key to the team's four-game winning streak has been a return to playing defense as the team has done in the past. New England allowed 32.0 PPG in its 2-2 start but in its four-game winnings streak, the Pats are allowing only 12.8 PPG!Denver: The Broncos head into Sunday night's game against the Patriots having switched QBs (Osweiler's in for Siemian), an OL struggling with injuries, a running game showing little consistently and the result has been the team has averaged 13.0 PPG during its four-game losing streak. "Definitely sick and tired of losing," Broncos running back C.J. Anderson said. "There's a sense of urgency. We know what time it is. We have a chance to do something really special that only us in that locker room believe we can do. That's where it starts. If everyone can change their minds ... to believe that we can do it, we can definitely make it happen." Brock Osweiler threw for 208 yards with one TD and two interceptions on 19 of 38 passing in his first start of 2017 at Philly. The blowout loss was hardly his fault, as the Denver running game produced just 35 yards on 19 carries. as for Denver's once-proud defense, it was ripped for 419 yards and of course, those 5 1 points!
The pick: These two teams have played each other pretty tight, splitting the last six games with three wins apiece. One has to expect Denver, especially here at home, to bring its "A game" off that Philly embarrassment. The problem is, the Pats are 3-0 on the road in 2017, extending their road winning streak to 11-0! Then again, Sports Authority/Invesco Field has been a house of horrors in the past for Tom Brady, who is 0-3 SU & ATS in playoff games at Denver. However, those past problems at Mile High came vs. very good Broncos teams, which doesn’t seem to apply here in 2017. Expect Denver to "give its all" in this one but not to contain Brady and the Pats "O." Make the Over an 8* play. |
|||||||
11-12-17 | Heat v. Pistons UNDER 202 | Top | 103-112 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: The Detroit Pistons welcome the Heat to their new downtown Arena, having won four straight to reach 9-3. The Pistons have won seven of their last eight overall, giving them the second-best record in the East (Boston is 11-2) plus only the 10-3 Warriors and Rockets own a better record than Detroit in the entire NBA! The Pistons are wrapping up a five-game homestand with this contest (are 6-1 on the season at home, including 4-0 on this homestand) but will play nine of their next 11 games away from home after Sunday. The Heat know all about playing away from home, as Miami will be playing the finale of a six-game road trip. However, the Heat have done well, winning three of the first five and can move a game over .500 on the season with a win (come in 6-6). Miami: The Heat are 3-2 on the trip, losing at Denver and Golden State while defeating the Los Angeles Clippers, Phoenix and Utah. SG Dion Waiters (16.4) sat out two games following the birth of his daughter but was strong in two games since his return, averaging 18.5 points while going 5-of-10 from 3-point range. PG Dragic leads the team in scoring (20.0-4.2-4.6) and Whiteside (15.3 & 13.1) remains a strong presence inside. However, the Heat will have to begin scoring more (101.8 PPG ranks 25th), if they want to reach the postseason. Detroit: The Pistons are making an art of playing the pick-and-roll, run by PG Reggie Jackson (16.2 & 6.2 APG) and center Andre Drummond (14.2 & 15.6). This duo is opening things up for the rest of the team with shooters spreading the floor. "Anything's possible for this team when those guys are playing well," Pistons' SG Avery Bradley told reporters after a 111-104 win over the Atlanta Hawks on Friday. "Reggie Jackson's a very good player. Andre's a very good player. When those guys are in pick and roll they open the game up for everybody." Drummond is a career 38.8 percent FT shooter but has worked hard to improve his accuracy from the stripe and was noticeably upset when he slumped on Wednesday and went 0-of-7 in a win over the Indiana Pacers. However, he bounced back by going 4-of-6 from the line in Friday's win (he's making 64.2% on the season. Harris (19.7 & 4.8) leads the team in scoring and new addition Bradley, is not just an outstanding defensive player, his 16.4 PPG ranks second-best on the team. The pick: It's the end of a long road trip for Miami (six games, over 11 days) and as I noted earlier, the team's offensive struggles are a concern (see above). Detroit is holding opponents to 101.1 PPG (7th-best), including only 97.7 at home. Miami averages just 99.5 PPG on the road. Make the Under a 10* play |
|||||||
11-11-17 | Eastern Illinois v. Nebraska OVER 141 | Top | 68-72 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: The Pinnacle Bank Arena in Lincoln, Nebraska is the setting for the season openers for the Eastern Illinois Panthers and the Nebraska Cornhuskers. Both schools opened last season playing just fine but each would up under .500 by year's end. Eastern Illinois started out at 8-4 but then lost eight of its next nine games and despite closing the year on a 5-3, finished 14-15. Nebraska opened 4-0 but then lost six of its next seven. Nebraska finished the season on a 3-13 slide and at 12-19 overall (6-12 in the Big Ten). Eastern Illinois: The Panthers did lose their leading scorer from last season in Demetrius McReynolds (14.7 PPG) but four starters return. Guards Montell Goodwin (14.3 & 3.1 APG) and Terrell Lewis (10.5 & 4.7 APG) plus wing Ray Crossland (10.5 & 6.1) all were double-digit scores last season. Nebraska: The Cornhuskers enter this season off three consecutive losing years, after winning 19 times in 2013-14 and earning only the school's seventh-ever NCAA bid. This is not what Nebraska fans expected when Tim Miles was hired for the 2012-13 season. The Cornhuskers have lost their best player in Tai Webster, who averaged 17.0-5.1-4.0 plus Ed Morrow (9.4 & 7.5) and fellow forward Jacobson (6.0 & 6.2) both transferred to Marquette. Glynn Watson (13.0) figures to take Webster's place but Miles is counting heavily on freshman Thomas Allen and Nana Akenten. The pick: Eastern Illinois comes into this season with plenty of optimism and hopes to win some of teh "close ones" it lost last season (went 2-5 in games decided by five points or less LY). Meanwhile, Nebraska will be searching for a "new identity" and hoping key newcomers like Allen and Akenten are "as good as advertised. I will stay away from the side in this one and make the Over a 10* play. |
|||||||
11-11-17 | Rutgers v. Penn State OVER 52.5 | Top | 6-35 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 25 m | Show |
The setup: The Penn State Nittany Lions coughed up a 15-point fourth quarter at Ohio State on Oct. 28 and then lost last Saturday 27-24 at Michigan State. Penn State was No. 2 in the AP poll before the the loss to Ohio State but after opening No. 7 in the first CFP rankings, now checks in at No. 14, with almost no hope of reaching the Big Ten championship game. The 7-2 Nittany Lions (4-2 in the Big Ten) will host the 4-5 Rutgers Scarlet Knights (3-3 in Big Ten) at Beaver Stadium. Penn State has beaten Rutgers the last two seasons 28-3 and 39-0, giving them a 25-2 advantage in the all-time series. Rutgers: Chris Ash had a 'nightmare' first year at Rutgers, as the Scarlet Knights went 2-10, including 0-9 in the Big Ten. However, the Scarlet Knights look for their fourth win in last five tries in this game, hoping to get back to a .500 record. This year's offense is only marginally better, averaging 22.6 PPG (105th), which is up from 15.7 PPG but the defense has made major strides. Rutgers allowed 37.5 PPG in 2016 but here in 2017 the Scarlet Knights are allowing 24.9 PPG (33rd). RB Gus Edwards ran for 109 yards against the Terrapins and hauled in the decisive 23-yard touchdown catch in the fourth quarter as the Scarlet Knights won 31-24. The team is now within two victories of becoming bowl eligible for the first time since 2014. Rutgers has won three of its last four, covering each of its last four games. Penn State: The Nittany Lions have seen a promising season derailed by back-to-back narrow road losses and will try to take out their frustration at home against an improving Rutgers squad on Saturday. Penn State needs a victory here in order to avoid its first three-game losing streak since the end of the 2015 season. QB Trace McSorley is completing 64.2 percent of his passes for 2,452 yards with 19 TDs and eight interceptions. RB Saquon Barkley was the early Heisman favorite but he has fewer than 20 rushes in three of his last four games, including a season low-tying 14 last week. Is Barkley really a dynamic RB? The Lions have managed to rush for only 156 yards on 56 carries over the last two weeks, as a team. Defensively, Penn State is allowing 14.8 PPG (7th) on 331.4 YPG (25th) but in back-to-back losses, Penn State's D has allowed 65 points (32.5 per) on 1,003 yards (501.5 per). The pick: Consecutive road losses have doomed Penn State’s championship aspirations but Rutgers’ defense is allowing 5.6 YPC, so I expect Barkley to break out of his two-game "mini-slump." The over is 13-6 in the Nittany Lions last 19 conference games and I say make it 14-6. The Over is an 8* play. |
|||||||
11-10-17 | Penguins v. Capitals UNDER 6 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: The 9-6-2 Pittsburgh Penguins and 8-7-1 Washington Capitals are off to relatively slow starts, with each of these traditionally high-scoring teams having their own struggles. Washington comes in with a struggling power play (ranks 16th at 18.0%), while Pittsburgh is having trouble scoring without the man advantage. The Penguins own the league's third-best power play (cashing in on 27.7 percent of their chances) but they have been outscored 44-21 during 5-on-5 action. Washington is averaging 2.88 GPG (18th) and Pittsburgh 2.65 GPG (24th). Pittsburgh: Captain Sidney Crosby hasn't scored a goal in nine games and defenseman Kris Letang has only one goal all season. "Yes, it does," Crosby told reporters Thursday when asked if it feels like it's been awhile since he scored. "Usually that means you're close to putting on in, so hopefully that's a good sign for me. Yeah, there's been some chances there, some posts, things like that, but still like to generate a little bit more." Head coach Mike Sullivan reunited former linemates Evgeni Malkin and Phil Kessel on Tuesday and the pair sparked a 3-1 win over the Arizona Coyotes at PPG Paints Arena with a goal and two assists each. Washington:Forwards T.J. Oshie and Nicklas Backstrom are mired in point droughts. Oshie has failed to dent the scoresheet in eight games while Backstrom has zero points in his last seven. "I realize that I've got to be better and I've got to create more chances, produce and be one of the leading guys on the team," Backstrom said. Alex Ovechkin scored a goal for the third straight contest on Tuesday, but Washington failed to muster anything else offensively and saw its three-game winning streak come to a halt with a 3-1 setback to Buffalo. The pick: These teams have gone toe-to-toe often in recent postseasons, although the results have been one-sided, with Pittsburgh coming out on top. Neither No. 1 goalie has dominated in this matchup with Holtby going 7-8-2 with a 2.79 goals-against average, while Murray is 3-2 with a 3.88 GAA. However, Holtby has permitted just nine goals during his four-game winning streak entering this game and in the teams' first meeting, back in October at Capital One Arena, Matt Murray allowed just two goals in a 3-2 Pittsburgh win. Defense rules again here, with two struggling offensive clubs (see above). Make the Under a 10* play. |
|||||||
11-09-17 | Seahawks v. Cardinals OVER 41 | Top | 22-16 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 15 m | Show |
The setup: The Seattle Seahawks are 5-3, after their four-game win streak was brought to a halt on Sunday at home, when the Redskins beat them 17-14. The loss hurt, as the Rams romped 51-17 over the NY Giants in Week 9, moving one game ahead of Seattle in the NFC West at 6-2. Seattle now comes to the University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, to take on NFC West rival Arizona. The Cardinals come in 4-4, sandwiching a loss to the Rams between wins over Tampa Bay and San Francisco. Seattle: QB Russell Wilson threw 297 yards with two TDs against Washington but also threw two picks. Wilson has completed 62.0 percent for 2,305 yards with 17 TDs and six INTs (95.9 QB rating). He also leads Seattle in rushing with 271 yards and a TD on 46 attempts, which is not good news, as Seattle ranks 19th with 103.9 YPG. Seattle has always prided itself on defense under Pete Carroll (ever hear of the Legion of Boom?) but the Seahawks are allowing 332.5 YPG to rank 13th (not typical). However, Seattle is allowing a modest 18.6 PPG, which ranks 6th. Arizona: The Cardinals' 33-0 loss to the Rams in London dropped them to 3-4 and they also lost Carson Palmer for the season. Drew Stanton has stepped up in the past and after a Week 8 bye, Stanton stepped in against San Francisco last Sunday to help the Cards win 20-10, moving to 4-4. Stanton completed 15 of 30 for 201 yards with two TDs and one INT vs. the 49ers. Drew Stanton extended his regular-season winning streak to four starts, albeit spread over nearly three years. "When Drew steps in the huddle, there is total confidence in the other 10 guys," head coach Bruce Arians told reporters. "They know he knows this offense inside and out, and when he gets a hot hand, he can really light you up." However, Adrian Peterson was "the difference" for the second time in his three games since coming to Arizona. A.P. ran for 134 yards and two TDs in the Cards' 38-33 win over Tampa Bay in Week 6 and then had 159 yards on the ground last Sunday against the 49ers, after running for only 21 yards in the London loss (Week 7).. The pick: The Seahawks' offense has been pretty unpredictable, as they’ve scored at least 41 points twice in the last five games and 17 points or fewer twice in that span as well. However, the Seahawks were fit to be tied after seeing their four-game winning streak come to a halt last week following three missed FG attempts (of 44, 39 and 49 yards) plus committing a season-high 16 penalties! Seattle is 7-0 ATS in their last seven Thursday games and while Arians is 3-1 against the Seahawks in Seattle, he's 0-3-1 against them at home since becoming the Cardinals' coach in 2013. This total is low enough to make the Over a 10* play. |
|||||||
11-09-17 | Cavs v. Rockets OVER 228 | Top | 113-117 | Win | 100 | 20 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: It would be an understatement to say that it's been rough sailing in the early going for the Cleveland Cavs, the three-time defending Eastern Conference champs. The Cavs ended a three-game home slide on Monday 124-119 over the Bucks but needed to shoot 55.5 percentage from the floor to do so. Kevin Love had 32 & 16 plus LBJ had 30-8-9, as the Cavs moved to just 5-6 by outlasting the Bucks, who received a 40-point effort from Giannis Antetokounmpo.The Cavs visit Toyota Center tonight in Houston, where they'll face the 8-3 Rockets. Houston owns a three-game winning streak and even without PG Chris Paul, who is inching closer to a return having missed the past 10 games with a sore left knee, have overcome a slow start offensively to climb to fifth in offensive rating (108.4) and 13th in pace (101.2). Cleveland: The Cavs' 39-point first quarter vs. Milwaukee represented a reversal from a series of slow starts and then, with LBJ and Love on the bench, Cleveland extended its lead during a key stretch to open the fourth. "We got stops and we made shots," James said. "They had a couple defensive miscues: J.R. (Smith) came off one and hit a 3, D-Wade (Dwyane Wade) hit a pull-up, and Jeff (Green) was able to get to the free-throw line and get two free throws as well. And then we got stops defensively. That was very key." Dwyane Wade's criticism of the Cleveland Cavaliers' starting five was answered in a big way on Tuesday. After the four non-James members of the starting-five combined for 25 points on 9-of-29 shooting in a 117-115 loss to the lowly Atlanta Hawks on Sunday, his criticism seemed to light a fire under the team ahead. "In my experience, what I've learned is you're going to go through different things throughout the year," Wade told reporters after the 124-119 win over Milwaukee. "This is the first one. The first 10 or 11 games we went through something. ... But now we move on from this phase, hopefully, and we move into another one. Then we will have another something and we will have to figure out as a team how to get over that. But at the end of the day, we're all getting over it together." Houston: The Cavs will have their hands full keeping pace with the Rockets, who are hitting their stride after scoring a season high in a 137-110 win at home on Sunday over the Jazz. That makes it three wins in a row, averaging 125 points per game on 51.2 percent shooting, including 42 percent on three-pointers. Harden has chipped in 38.7 points and 11 assists per game during the three-game stretch. Harden went 19-of-25 from the floor and 7-of-8 from three-point range en route to his career-high 56 points against the Jazz. "I was just shooting it, I don't know," Harden told reporters. "I don't really pay too much attention to it. I just try to take good shots and pretty much make the right decision. Obviously, I'm going to make mistakes, but as long as I have that mindset, I'll be good." Harden is getting plenty of support from SG Eric Gordon, who is averaging 23.1 points on the season and knocked down 6-of-11 from three-point range on Sunday, plus center Chris Capela checks in averaging a double-double at 12.7 & 10.6. The pick: Sure the Cavs scored 124 points with a great offensive effort to snap the team's three-game home losing streak on Monday but in the process, allowed at least 112 points for the ninth consecutive game! The Bucks shot 56.6 percent and knocked down 13 three-pointers. Numbers don't lie. The Cavs are allowing 113.9 PPG (28th) on 48.5% shooting (29th), including 41.9% on threes (30th). Surely the Cavs will be "focused" when playing the Rockets but the team's only way to compete (win), is to out-score their opponent(s). Make the Over an 8* play. |
|||||||
11-08-17 | Bruins v. Rangers OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 20 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: The New York Rangers opened 1-5-0 but have battled back to earn points in eight of their last 10 games (6-2-2), after rallying for a 5-3 victory over Columbus on Monday. “Even when we were losing, we were in games - right there to go after the win - and we didn’t have the confidence to do that,” New York defenseman Marc Staal told the New York Post. “I think this last stretch, we’ve found ways to make plays to win them. That’s the biggest difference.” The Bruins have points in seven of eight (4-1-3), despite missing several key players with injuries and illness.After a 2-3-0 start, Boston is now 6-4-3. New York hosts Boston tonight at MSG, looking to extend its winning streak to five in a row and with having beaten the Bruins five straight times, the Rangers shouldn't be lacking any confidence. Boston: Since a 3-1 loss in Las Vegas on Oct. 15, the Bruins are 4-1-3 and had one of their best showings of the season in a 5-3 win against the Minnesota Wild on Monday. The team's current run has come while battling significant injuries. The win against the Wild came without Brad Marchand, David Krejci and David Backes. Marchand shares the team lead at 14 points with David Pastrnak but did not travel to New York but could potentially meet the team for the game in Toronto on Friday. Anders Bjork joined Pastrnak and Patrice Bergeron on the top line against Minnesota while center David Krejci (six points, six games) was placed on injured reserve after missing seven games with a back injury. NY Rangers: New York has 27 goals in its six games and its power play is beginning to click, as the Rangers have converted 7-of-19 power play opportunities in the past five outings.New York's powr play is 6-for-13 over the past four games plus it sure doesn't hurt that they are also 8-for-8 on the penalty kill in that four-game span, as well. Mika Zibanejad had three assists Monday and leads the team with 17 points while defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk boasts three goals and five assists during a five-game point streak. The pick: The Rangers are starting to feel like the team some thought would be playoff-bound before the season "It's high. It should be," Rangers center Mika Zibanejad said of the Rangers' confidence. "I think we talked about that early on and especially after the second period that if we want to be a good team we have to find ways to win the game even though we are down. We did that and I think obviously the past three games helps that confidence and helps that feeling in the locker room of even if we are down coming into the third to be able to come back. It was important." Boston's Tuukka Rask owns a .923 save percentage in 20 career games against the Rangers but so far this season, he's 0-2-1 on the road. New York's Henrik Lundqvist comes in with a 3.07 GAA & .900 SP, after allowing seven goals on 59 shots his last two (.881 SP). The Over is a 10* play. |
|||||||
11-08-17 | Kent State v. Western Michigan OVER 46.5 | Top | 20-48 | Win | 100 | 28 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: The Western Michigan Broncos welcome the Kent State Golden Flashes to Kalamazoo in another Wednesday night football game in the MAC. Western Michigan lost to in-state rival Central Michigan 35-28 at home last Wednesday but at 5-4 (3-2 in the MAC West), the Broncos are just one win away from being bowl-eligible for the fourth consecutive season. As for Kent State, the Golden Flashes were embarrassed at home a week ago Tuesday, losing at home 44-16 to Bowling Green. Kent is now 2-7, including 1-4 in the MAC East. Kent State: Bowling Green was not only a woeful 5-15 SU but also 5-15 ATS heading into last Tuesday's game at Kent State. The Falcons were averaging only 20.5 PPG but scored 44 points on yards, including 251 rushing yards. To say the least, it was a low point for Kent State's season. Actually, Kent State's entire season has been a low point, as the not so-Golden Flashes rank dead-last (130th) in scoring at 10.7 PPG and 129th in total yards at 253.4 per game. When one's defense allows 34.1 PPG (107th) on 436.3 YPG (102nd), one's offense has to score more than 10-plus PPG! Western Michigan: The Broncos were 13-1 last year under P.J. Fleck but he's now 'rowing his boat' in Minnesota. The Broncos suffered a tough loss last week at home to Central Michigan, blowing a 21-7 halftime lead in which the Broncos had out-gained the Chippewas 269-82 (CMU had just two FDs at the half!). Western Michigan's Jarvion Franklin fumbled early in the fourth quarter and Jonathan Ward pulled Central Michigan to 28-21 on a 29-yard touchdown run. CMU blocked a punt on Western Michigan's next possession and Ward's 35-yard run on first down set up Eric Cooper's touchdown grab in the end zone to tie it at 28 with 5:50 left. CMU got the ball back with 2:47 left at its 23 and QB Shane Morris threw a 77-yard touchdown pass to Corey Willis with 2:37 remaining. Western Michigan turned it over on downs near midfield and Ward ran for a first down to run out the clock. The loss of starting QB Wassink has certainly been a blow to WMU but Bronco RB Franklin’s 228 YR in loss vs. Central Mich bodes well against Kent State rush D allowing 5.4 YPC. The pick: With KSU's pathetic offense, going over may seem risky but I did just that last week in the BG/KSU game. I'll 'go to the well' again here while noting that the over is 10-2 in Western Michigan's last 12 home games. Make the Over a 10* play. |
|||||||
11-07-17 | Pelicans v. Pacers OVER 217.5 | Top | 117-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: The Indiana Pacers opened a three-game road trip with a 124-107 win at Cleveland on Nov. 1 but limp back home after dropping the final two stops of the trip at Philadelphia and New York. The 5-5 New Orleans Pelicans visit the Pacers on Tuesday, coming off back-to-back road wins. However, full disclosure means it must be noted that the road victories did come over 1-10 Dallas and 2-6 Chicago. New Orleans: The Pelicans have not reached 100 points in any of their last four games. Antonio Davis (27.4 & 12.7) and DeMarcus Cousins (28.6 & 13.7) combined for 52 points and 27 rebounds in Saturday's 96-90 overtime win at Chicago but both played more than 40 minutes and the playing time is becoming a concern. "We're asking a lot of those guys, especially (Davis) and DeMarcus playing those kind of minutes," New Orleans head coach Alvin Gentry told reporters. "... It's kind of a catch-22. Do you take them out? Or, do you try to win games and then try to find rest for them? We chose to leave them in and try to win the game." Davis logged over 40 minutes in each of the last four games and six of 10 while Cousins hit the mark three times already. Guards Holiday (13.50 and Moore (10.2) are the Pelicans' only other double digit scorers. New Orleans is scoring 105.2 PPG (15th) and allowing 105.6 PPG (15th), which makes it no surprise that the team is off to a 5-5 start! Indiana: The Pacers (5-5, just like the Pelicans) come in averaging 110.3 PPG (4th) on 48.0 percent shooting (3rd) but are questioning their defense after squandering a 19-point lead in a 108-101 loss at the New York Knicks on Sunday, during which they were outscored 36-17 in the fourth quarter. "You need to have these wins," power forward Thaddeus Young told the team's website. "You can say it's a long season, but these are the ones that come back and hurt." On the season, the defense is allowing 109.1 PPG (24th) on 47.7 percent shooting (29th). Oladipo leads in scoring at 23.8 PPG but the real good news is that starting center Myles Turner, who recorded 21 points and 14 rebounds in the season opener, finally returned these last two games, after sitting out seven games with a head injury. He had a total of 26 points and 13 rebounds in the two road losses. Domantas Sabonis posted double-digit rebounds in six straight games while starting in place of Turner and is one of six Indiana player averaging in double figures in scoring. The pick: The Pacers actually played well without Turner and it has to be disappointing that they lost in each of his two games back. However, there is no doubt Indiana is a better team with Turner. The Pacers are scoring well but defending poorly and I believe Davis and Cousins (or Cousins and Davis, if you prefer), will have their way scoring inside after the Pacers were out-rebounded by the Knicks 52-41. Make the Over an 8* play. |
|||||||
11-07-17 | Coyotes v. Penguins UNDER 6 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: The two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins are looking to snap out of a funk that has seen them drop four of their last five contests, all on the road. Pittsburgh (8-6-2) returns home tonight to face the Arizona Coyotes, who have gone 2-2-1 their last five games but had opened 0-10-1! Arizona: It's safe to say that the Coyotes have played better of late, as it's pretty difficult to play worse than opening 0-10-1. Yes, they've earned five points in their last five games earning five points in their last five games (2-2-1) but did cough up a two-goal lead in losing at Washington 3-2 in overtime on Monday. Rookie Clayton Keller scored his 11th goal in the loss and has scored five times in the last seven contests to push his team-leading point total to 16. Scott Wedgewood made 37 saves in the loss at Washington, but No. 1 goaltender Antti Raanta is expected to be back in net after turning aside 36 shots in a 2-1 shootout win over Carolina on Saturday. Pittsburgh: The Pens are coming off a 1-3-1 road trip but return to PPG Paints Arena with a four-game home winning streak intact. However, the team needs to start scoring, as Pittsburgh has managed just 13 goals in an eight-game span. The Penguins are averaging 2.63 goals per game (26th) after leading the NHL last season with 3.39 per game. Sidney Crosby has no goals in the past eight games,and fellow offensive star Phil Kessel has a six-game goal drought. Five of the team’s eight scores in the last five games have come on the power play. Evgeni Malkin has scored four of his six goals with the man advantage to lead the club. Malkin has registered 15 points, one behind team leader Phil Kessel (Crosby is next with 13). Matt Murray, whose next win will be the 50th of his career, has dropped three of his last four decisions - allowing four goals twice - after starting the season 7-1-1. The pick: Pittsburgh is second in the league on the power play, converting 28.8 percent and while it's difficult to see this team's offensive woes continuing, who wants to predict just when it will end. Arizona is just 1-7-1 on the road but the price is prohibitive. Expect a bounce-back from Murray and make the Under an 8* play. |
|||||||
11-06-17 | Lions v. Packers OVER 43.5 | Top | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 34 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: The Packers and Bears are the NFL's oldest rivalry but the Lions/Packers are not exactly unfamiliar with each other (this will be the series' 115th meeting, with the Packers owing a 60-40-4 edge). The Lions are 3-4 on the season but limp into Lambeau Field having lost four of their last five for tonight's Week 9 MNF matchup with the Aaron Rodgers-less Green Bay Packers. The Packers lost their Week 6 game at Minnesota and more devastatingly, lost Rodgers to a season-ending injury. In the team's first game without Rodgers (a Week 7 game at home vs. the Saints), Green Bay lost 26-19 with backup QB Brett Hundley proving he was nowhere near ready for primetime (12 of 25 for 87 yards without a TD and with one INT). The Packers had a much-needed bye in Week 8 and at 4-3, will now host the Lions. Both teams (surely the loser of this game) are in danger of losing touch with the NFC North's leader, the 6-2 Vikings (enjoying their bye week). Detroit: The Lions opened 2-0 but enter on a three-game losing streak (four losses in their last five), after losing 20-15 at home against the Steelers a week ago Sunday night. QB Stafford threw for 423 yards on 27 of 45 passing as Golden Tate didn't let an ailing shoulder slow him down as he recorded seven receptions for the second straight game. However, Detroit was only able to rush for 71 yards on 22 carries and failing to run the ball effectively is something that's been a recurring problem for Detroit, as the Lions come into this contest averaging 82.1 YPG (3.5 YPC) on the ground (28th). In fact, it has been 59 games since the Lions have had a 100-yard rusher (Reggie Bush versus Green Bay in 2013). Green Bay: The Packers are off a bye but also off back-to-back losses (falling from 4-1 to 4-3) and while Hundley looked overwhelmed by the challenge in his role as a starter, he was hardly the only problem the Packers had in their Week 7 game with the Saints. The Pack's defense would allow 485 yards of total offense to New Orleans while letting the Saints rack up almost 37 minutes of possession in the game. Hundley will face a Detroit defense tonight which owns 10 interceptions and 16 overall takeaways, ranking third-best in the league. The pick; To say that Detroit has had trouble winning at Green Bay is a huge understatement. Yes, the Lions won in Lambeau in 2015 but the team's last previous win there was back in 1991!. The Lions never got into the end zone vs. the Steelers, settling for five FGs (going 0-for-5 in scoring a TD in the red zone for that game, dropped Detroit to 28th in red zone TD efficiency). However, against an always excellent Pittsburgh D, the Lions were able to gain 485 yards. Stafford is used to carrying the Detroit offense and it's unlikely that Detroit's red zone issues will haunt them again in this one. As for Green Bay, Hundley can't possibly be as bad as he showed vs. the Saints and the bye week should have been a big help. "Me and Aaron talk a lot," Hundley told reporters on Thursday. "Even when he was playing, we still talked a lot. It's the same - now it's a different type of talk. He's telling me stuff, and it's good for me. Aaron's always been a brother to me. Whenever you have people like that around, you always feel better." Make the Over a 10* play. |
|||||||
11-06-17 | Golden Knights v. Maple Leafs UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: The NHL newest expansion team, the Vegas Golden Knights, were given a nice break by the schedule-makers. Vegas opened with back-to-back road games but then returned to Las Vegas for a seven-game homestand covering three weeks! Vegas won its first two games, then went 6-1-0 on the homestand to reach 8-1-0. However, as the team faces its final two games of its first significant road trip of six games, the Golden Knights hope to build off Saturday's 5-4 win Saturday in Ottawa, after losing the frist three games of the trip. Vegas will be in Toronto tonight, taking on the 8-7-0 Maple Leafs at the Air Canada Centre. Toronto is opening a three-game homestand, after winning just once on its four-game trip. The Maple Leafs have lost five of six overall, after Saturday's 6-4 setback in St. Louis. Vegas: Maxime Lagace recorded his first career victory Saturday despite allowing four goals on 28 shots. He is Vegas' fourth starting goaltender already this season following injuries to Marc-Andre Fleury (concussion), Malcolm Subban (lower body) and Oscar Dansk (lower body). The three losses did not shake the new team's belief in itself, according to center Jonathan Marchessault. "Nobody was panicking. We've been playing well as a team. Everyone's trying to stay loose. After three games like that, everyone could've tied up their sticks. But we know we're a good team, and we have a lot of experienced guys in the room who aren't going to let things get away from us." Toronto: Auston Matthews apparently is not allowing himself to be plagued by the sophomore jinx, as he has followed his Calder Trophy-winning season by recording 10 goals and 18 points - both team highs - in 15 contests.However, the Maple Leafs have allowed a total of 11 goals in their last two games.The Maple Leafs are glad to be home after completing a 1-3 road trip. "We've got to go home and have an off-day (Sunday) and get regrouped and get back on track," Maple Leafs head coach Mike Babcock said after the game Saturday. "We were sitting pretty good a week ago or 10 days ago, or however long it was. Now, we've got to get back on track and get things fixed up and get playing good and get some swagger back in our game." The pick: The Golden Knights won eight of their first nine games, while the Maple Leafs won seven of their first nine games. Both teams are struggling to get back on track here. While both teams have been 'over' clubs so far (combined 18-9-1 to the over), I see this as a lower-scoring contest. Make the Under a 10* play. |
|||||||
11-05-17 | Bucs v. Saints OVER 50 | Top | 10-30 | Loss | -110 | 91 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: The Tampa Bay Bucs saw their Week 1 game postponed by Hurricane Irma but they opened 2-1. However, they have then fallen in succession to the Patriots, Cardinals, Bills and Panthers, leaving them at 2-5. In stark contrast, the Saints lost their first two games of the 2017 season but have followed with five straight wins over the Panthers, Dolphins, Lions, Packers and Bears. The Saints entered 2017 off three consecutive 7-9 seasons but have now won five in a row for the first time since 2013. New Orleans is atop the NFC South but leads the Panthers by just a half-game and the Falcons by one game. It's early but a Tampa Bay loss here in New Orleans, all but ends any real division hopes for the Bucs in 2017. Tampa Bay: QB Jameis Winston is dealing with a shoulder injury but practiced on Wednesday, the first time he joined the mid-week practice since suffering the injury on Oct. 15. Winston completed 21-of-38 passes for 210 yards and two interceptions in the loss to the Panthers last week, marking the fourth time in the last five games that he failed to complete at least 60 percent of his passes. However, he is completing 61.8 percent on the season (10 TDs and six INTs) plus Tampa Bay ranks second in passing yards at 295.4 per game. The running game doesn't offer enough help though, averaging just 81.1 YPG (29th), one of the reasons the Bucs are averaging only 21.1 PPG (19th). Defensively, Tampa Bay is allowing 386.4 YPG (29th) and 24.0 PPG (24th). New Orleans: The age-less Drew Brees is completing 70.6 percent of his passes, averaging 271.7 YPG through the air and has 11 TDs with just four INTs (101.7 QB rating). He leads an offense which ranks second in the league with 390.4 YPG and ranks 6th in scoring at 27.3 PPG. RB Mark Ingram became the undisputed starter again when New Orleans traded away Adrian Peterson last month and he's averaged 98 yards in the last three weeks but fumbled on two straight fourth-quarter drives against Chicago last week. "I sucked. I sucked," Ingram told reporters. "Two possessions we're about to ice the game. Let the ball go, hurt my team, hurt my coaches. That's the thing about a family, that's the thing about a team: They lift you up, they had my back, and we were able to get the W." A major improvement has been shown by the defense, which allowed 28.4 PPG in 2016 but has allowed 20.7 PPG in 2017 (12th). The pick: The Buccaneers were expected to be the darlings of the NFC South in the preseason, while the New Orleans Saints were expected to just play out the end of Drew Brees' career near the bottom of the division. However, the teams have reversed that narrative so far this season, and the first-place Saints will go for their sixth consecutive win when they host the last-place Buccaneers on Sunday, who come in on that four-game skid. However, Tampa hasn’t exactly been lying down during its losing streak. The Bucs lost by five to the Patriots, five to the Cardinals and three to the Bills before 'laying an egg' in last week's 17-3 loss to the Panthers. If Ingram continues to run the ball well (while holding on to it!), he makes Brees even more effective. A Tampa Bay rush D which has only seven sacks on the year, also makes Brees' job easier in this matchup. That said, the Bucs know they really need a win here and are unlikely to bottle up Brees and Co, so the way to win is to match New Orleans score for score. Make the Over an 8* play. |
|||||||
11-04-17 | Arizona v. USC OVER 73.5 | Top | 35-49 | Win | 100 | 75 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: Arizona ended September at 2-2, losing a pair of home games to Houston and Utah by a single possession. Following a bye week, the Wildcats traveled to Colorado on Oct. 7, where QB Brandon Dawkins was flung into the sidelines on the game's opening drive. Dawkins was pulled and sophomore Khalil Tate entered the lineup. Four games, four wins and an unprecedented four straight Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Week honors later, Tate has not relinquished the job. He leads Arizona in rushing with 926 yards on just 69 carries and has eight rushing TDs while passing for 784 yards and six more TDs. USC head coach Clay Helton said about the move to Tate, "It changed the dynamic of their team." He should know. USC closed September last season at 1-3, before a QB change to Sam Darnold ignited a nine-game winning streak that closed the campaign. The two schools meet in the LA Coliseum with the pac-12 South division lead on the line, as USC is 5-1 and Arizona, 4-1. Arizona: Tate is a "force of nature," leading Arizona's rushing attack which is averaging 339.2 YPG (5th). The Wildcats are averaging 45.0 PPG (3rd) on the season, including 48.8 PPG in the school's current four-game winning streak. Defensively, Arizona is allowing opponents to average 30.2 PPG (88th) on 453.0 YPG (112th). which includes 300.6 YPG through the air (128th). Helping out the poor defensive numbers is the fact that Arizona has forced 19 turnovers on the season! USC: The Trojans have been a minor disappointment and QB Sam Darnold has been a major one. He was Heisman-favorite and there was talk that he could be the next overall No. 1 pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. However, after throwing 31 TDs with just nine iNTs in 2016, he already has 10 INTs this season with 20 TD passes. USC has escaped against Texas in two OTs and against Utah by one-point, plus has lost at Washington State and got creamed at Notre Dame. USC averages 33.7 PPG but allows 25.8 and its 2-7 ATS record speaks volumes regarding the team's status as an underachiever in 2017. The pick: The depth-shy Trojan D has struggled with dual-threat QBs and right now, is there a better one than Arizona's Tate. However, there's little reason to trust Arizona's D, especially its pass D, which figures to easy pickins' for Darnold. Make the Over an 8* play. |
|||||||
11-04-17 | Kings v. Pistons OVER 196.5 | Top | 99-108 | Win | 100 | 19 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: The Detroit Pistons followed up an impressive road trip, which included surprising victories at the Clippers and Warriors, with a 105-96 win over the Bucks last night at Little Caesars Arena. It was the opener of the team's five-game homestand,as Detroit improved to 6-3, including 7-2 ATS. The Sacramento Kings visit Detroit Saturday night, coming in on a six-game slide SU & ATS and an overall record of 1-7. The Kings lone win of the season was back on Oct 20, 93-88 in Dallas over a Mavericks team which is an NBA-worst 1-9 on the season! Sacramento: Rookie De’Aaron Fox (Kentucky) and 2nd-year player Buddy Hield (the key piece in the trade of Boogie Cousins) were the duo the Kings had hoped to build around. That duo may be the team's top-two scorers but Fox is averaging just 12.5 PPG on 40.4 percent from the floor, while Hield averages only 11.1 PPG on 38.7% shooting, including a woeful 25.7% on threes. Two key veteran additions, PF Zach Randolph (10.8 & 6.3) and PG George Hill (9.2 & 2.7 APG), have surely not over-achieved! Sacramento ranks 29th in scoring (93.1 PPG) and made free throws (12.4 per game) plus is tied for last in made three-pointers (seven per game). Detroit: SF Harris (19.7) is the team's leading scorer, followed by starting guards Jackson (15.6-4.1-6.2) and Bradley (15.4), who was acquired from Boston (Bradley's an excellent defender and is making 41% on threes). Center Andre Drummond (13.8 & 14.2) is a force inside and last night, made a career-high 14 free throws in 16 attempts en route to a 24-point, 15-rebound performance against Milwaukee. Drummond was 38.6 percent shooter at the foul line last season but his "new stroke" has paid big dividends early, as he hitting 78% of his FTs. The pick: Sacramento won both meetings last season when each team was going nowhere. Yes, it's early, but only the 7-2 Celtics have a better record in the East than Detroit right now. The Kings haven't reached 90 points in their last three games, including the first two legs of this three-game road swing. losing 101-83 on Tuesday at Indiana and 113-86 at Boston on Wednesday. However, their legs should be much fresher after two off-days. The Pistons have won six of the last seven over the Kings here in Detroit but I'm not quite comfortable laying almost double digits with the Pistons, just yet (if ever!). However, this low total says go OVER and make it a 10* play. |
|||||||
11-03-17 | Predators v. Ducks OVER 5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: The Anaheim Ducks led the Pacific Division last year with 105 points, 11 more than Nashville's 94 points, which allowed the Predators to 'sneak in' as the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference. However, it was the Preds who 'took the West by storm,' in reaching the Stanley Cup Finals, taking down the Ducks 4-2 in the Western Conference Finals. The two teams meet tonight in Anaheim, for the first time since last year's postseason, with the Predators checking in at 5-5-2 and the Ducks at 6-5-1. Nashville: The Predators are 3-1-1 in Nashville but just 2-4-1 away from home, so far. Nashville lost for the fourth time in five outings on Wednesday, dropping the opener of this four-game road trip 4-1 in San Jose. "We continue to shoot ourselves in the foot with the penalties," said head coach Peter Laviolette, who saw his team permit eight power-play opportunities to the Sharks and at least four to the opposition in all but one game this season. Nashville enters this contest having mustered just nine goals during its last five games. Pekka Rinne had been stellar in his previous six outings with just seven goals allowed on 191 shots, before surrendering all four goals at San Jose. Anaheim: Head coach Randy Carlyle lamented his team's performance with the man advantage as its 31st-ranked power play failed to pay dividends for the third time in four games during Wednesday's 3-1 setback to Toronto. "Our power play's got to deliver more," Carlyle told the Orange County Register. "We need more offense from our power play. When you got four opportunities, you've got to come home with something." Anaheim has been besieged with injuries since the start of the season. The Ducks' normally high-powered offense has struggled with absences of Ryan Getzlaf and power-play 'QB' Cam Fowler, who is expected to miss three to seven weeks with a knee injury. The Anaheim power play has taken the brunt of the injury woes, converting only 10.8 percent of its attempts, which ranked 31st in the NHL (that's dead-last!). The pick: Both teams are off to shaky starts but this Western Conference Finals rematch should provide a spark for both teams. Filip Forsberg leads Nashville in goals (eight) and points (13) this season. He shredded the Ducks with five goals and two assists as Nashville won the Western Conference Final last spring and I expect either Forsberg or another Predator to step up in this one. As for the Ducks, even with all the injuries, they almost "have to" start putting the puck in the net, soon. Why not here, in an excellent "revenge" spot. Make the Over an 8* play. |
|||||||
11-01-17 | Penguins v. Oilers OVER 6 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: The two-time defending champs have long been known for their scoring prowess but the Penguins visit Edmonton Wednesday night having scored three goals or less over their last five games. Pittsburgh is 2-3-0 in that span (both wins came 2-1 in OT!), giving them a modest 7-5-1 record so far. One of those 2-1 (OT) wins came over the Oilers (Oct. 24th in Pittsburgh), so the disappointing Oilers, who have opened 3-6-1, will sure be looking for some revenge. Edmonton is in the middle of a five-game homestand on which it has split the first two contests. Pittsburgh: This marks the third game of Pittsburgh's current five-game road trip, with Pittsburgh losing the first two, 2-1 and 7-1. Evgeni Malkin has scored the etam's only two goals in that span and is tied with captain Sidney Crosby and Conor Sheary for the team lead in goals (five) and, along even Phil Kessel, tops on the club in points (13). Pittsburgh juggled its lines in practice Tuesday and also has shuffled its goaltending corps. The Pens called up Tristan Jarry from their AHL affiliate to back up starter Matt Murray and sent goalie Casey DeSmith the other way. Edmonton: The Oilers edged Dallas 5-4 on Thursday before dropping a 5-2 decision to Washington two days later for their fourth setback in six home games.Connor McDavid leads the team with five goals but has yet to score on the power play, where Edmonton is only 4-for-33 on the season (Oilers' 12.1% ranks 30th in the NHL!). The Oilers' special teams could surely use plenty of improvement, as the team's penalty-kill unit (70.3%), also ranks dead-last at 30th! Despite boasting last season's NHL scoring leader (Connor McDavid), and Leon Draisaitl, who finished eighth in the points race, the Oilers total of 22 goals scored is the lowest in the NHL The pick: These teams own too much fire power for this lack of scoring to continue. Make the Over an 8* play. |
|||||||
11-01-17 | Astros v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: It seems only fitting that the 2017 World Series will be decided in a winner-take-all Game 7. The LA bats 'woke up' just in time last night, as Chris Taylor hit a tying double off Justin Verlander during a two-run rally in the sixth inning with Corey Seager following with a go-ahead sacrifice fly. Joc Pederson then hit a 7th-inning HR against Joe Musgrove, pounding his chest and dancing around the bases. LA's 3-1 victory means this his dramatic Fall Classic is headed to an "ultimate Game 7!" Either the Los Angeles Dodgers will end a 29-year title drought or the Houston Astros will celebrate their first World Series championship come late Wednesday night. The pitching matchup: Lance McCullers will get the Game 7 nod for Houston and Yu Darvish for Los Angeles. It will be a rematch of Game 3, when McCullers gave up three runs on four hits with four walks over 5 1/3 innings, while Darvish allowed four runs on six hits while lasting just 1 2/3 innings. McCullers' two outings in the ALCS against the Yanks were also noteworthy. He got a no-decision in Game 4 but pitched six shut out innings, before allowing a lead-off HR in the seventh in Aaron Judge. He was taken out and the Yankees rallied against Houston's struggling bullpen. However, McCullers was called on in Game 7 of the ALCS and threw four scoreless innings (allowed one hit and had six Ks), to earn a save and help Houston reach the World Series. Then came his Game 3 performance (see above). Darvish's Game 3 performance marked the shortest start of his big league career. However, he entered that game on a roll. He had allowed just one ER over his final three regular season starts (19 1/3 innings), giving him an 0.47 ERA plus owned a 21-1 KW ratio in that stretch. He then won his first two postseason starts, allowing two ERs over 11.1 innings (1.59 ERA) with a 14-1 KW ratio. Doing the math, Darvish entered Game 3 of the World Series on a 4-1 run, having allowed three ERs over 30 2/3 innings (0.88 ERA) with a 35-2 KW ratio. Just where did his Game 3 effort come from? The pick: I've really liked what McCullers has shown in his last three postseason appearances (2.35 ERA) and I'm also expecting Darvish to rise to the occasion in what is the "biggest start" of his career. Make the Under a 10* play. |
|||||||
11-01-17 | Central Michigan v. Western Michigan OVER 47 | Top | 35-28 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: It's MACtion on Wednesday night from Waldo Stadium in Kalamazoo, Mi. when the 5-3 Western Michigan Broncos host the 4-4 Central Michigan Chippewas. The Chippewas kept their bowl hopes alive with a 56-9 rout at Ball State Cardinals on Oct. 21, reaching .500 at 4-4 on the season (2-2 in the MAC West). The Broncos also won on Oct. 21, edging the Eastern Michigan Eagles 20-17 in OT on the road. That gives WMU a 3-1 conference mark but the Broncos are still looking up at a pair of 4-0 teams in the West, Toledo and Northern Illinois. Central Michigan: Head coach John Bonamego has taken the Chippewas to consecutive bowl games in his first two seasons (lost them both) and Central Michigan is still technically still alive for the MAC title but that's a long-shot. However, the team needs just two wins in its final four games to become bowl-eligible here in 2017. QB Shane Morris completed 16 of 21 for 199 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions in the rout of Ball State but he's completing a modest 56.7 percent on the season with 16 TDs and 11 INTs. The offense is mediocre at best, averaging 25.8 PPG (83rd). Defensively, CMU is allowing 27.0 PPG (73rd). Western Michigan: Tim Lester is in his first season at WMU, with P.J. Fleck 'rowing his boat' in Minnesota, these days. Western Michigan had won four straight games, after its 71-68 seven-overtime win over Buffalo on Oct. 7. However, that win may have taken something out of the Broncos, who fell to Akron, 14-13 at home in their next game. Then came the 20-17 OT win at EMU, a game in which they lost starting QB Jon Wassink to a broken collarbone. Wassink was injured with 10 minutes left in the fourth quarter and true freshman Reece Goddard entered the game. Ultimately, Goddard led the Broncos to the game-winning FG drive in overtime The pick: QB Morris is off his best game of the season (see above) plus the CMU running game had its best effort of the season vs. the Cardinals, running for a season-high 256 yards. The Chippewas are an impressive 15-5 ATS theri last 20 MAC road games, which goes well with the fact that the road team is on a 5-0 run in this series. The WMU defense is no bargain (allows 27.69 PPG to rank 79th) but I'm not sold on CMU slowing the WMU offense either, even without Wassink behind center. The Broncos have won the last three in this series, averaging 40.7 PPG. Make the Over an 8* play. |
|||||||
10-31-17 | Astros v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -125 | 35 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: The 2017 World Series has already delivered two classic contests in Game 2 and 5, both of which were won by the Astros in extra-innings. If the Astros' 7-6 Game 2 victory last week was an instant classic, Houston's 13-12 win (10 innings) in Game 5 on Sunday might have actually topped it. This series is just five games old but the 22 combined HRs hit by the two teams has set a record for the most in World Series history and it's possible, there are still two games left to be played. The Astros sure hope there is just on game left, while the Dodgers are looking to send this series to a winner-take-all, Game 7 (hard to argue against that being a fitting conclusion). The storied Dodgers are in their first World Series since 1988 but for the Astros, there's no way to put into words what a World Series title would mean to a franchise that has made just one previous World Series appearance, which came back in 2005 when Houston was wept by the Chicago White Sox. Note that Houston's Game 2 win represented the franchise's first-ever World Series win! The pitching matchup: Justin Verlander is 9-0 with a 1.53 ERA in 10 total appearances (nine starts) since joining the Astros and A.J. Hinch will send the 34-year-old to the mound with hopes of avoiding a Game 7. Rich Hill takes the mound for LA, coming off a 12-8 (3.32 ERA) season, with the Dodgers going 15-10 in his 25 regular season starts. He's yet to earn a decision in three postseason starts but owns a 2.77 ERA and LA has won two of the three games he's started. Verlander only gave up only two hits in his Game 2 outing at Dodger Stadium but both were HRs, to Joc Pederson and Corey Seager. He left trailing 3-1 but the Astros would come back to win 7-6 in 11 innings. Hill was the recipient of a quick hook from manager Dave Roberts despite giving up one run and three hits and striking out seven in four innings his Game 2 start, opposite Verlander, However, Roberts hinted that Hill will have a 'longer leash' in Game 6 and the 37-year-old proclaims himself ready for the task. "It's something that all of us have been preparing our entire careers for," Hill told reporters. "Going out there in Game 6 and having the ability to be in that position, and go out there and leave everything on the field, is just an amazing thought." The pick: Roberts says that Hill will get a longer leash but Hill has not pitched more than five innings in any of his postseason starts in 2017. How will he fare past that point? We know that the LA bullpen is 'gassed.' so we may see Houston's bats continue the onslaught we saw in Game 5. As for Verlander, for all his accomplishments (and they are many), he's still looking for his first World Series win and note that he entered this year's Series 0-3 with a 7.20 ERA in three previous World Series starts. Clearly, with the state of Houston;'s bullpen, Hinch needs Verlander to go seven-plus innings. Each team pounded out 14 hits in Game 5 and I'm siding with the Over here in Game 6 and making it a 10* play. |
|||||||
10-31-17 | Thunder v. Bucks OVER 212 | Top | 110-91 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
The set-up: The 3-3 Oklahoma City Thunder will visit the Bradley Center to take on the 4-2 Milwaukee Bucks on Tuesday night. Russell Westbrook is coming off a record-setting season in which he was named MVP but the Bucks will showcase the NBA's most prolific player in this season to-date, Giannis Antetokounmpo. The 22-year-old "Greek Freak" leads the NBA with a 34.7 PPG scoring average while shooting 63.1 percent from the floor. He has four double-doubles, while also leading the Bucks in rebounding (10.7), assists (5.5) and steals (2.0). Oklahoma City: Westbrook became the first player in NBA history to post a triple-double against 29 different opponents when he had 12 points, 13 rebounds and 13 assists in the Thunder's 101-69 rout of the Chicago Bulls on Saturday. "It's really his mentality that I have great respect for and an admiration that I love," Oklahoma City coach Billy Donovan told reporters. "He's an old-school, just bring it - he just has certain values in the way the game is supposed to be played from a competitive standpoint." OKC has added Paul George (19.5 & 4.7) and Carmelo Anthony (23.8 & 3.8) but the team's 3-3 start is underwhelming. Of note though, is a defense which ranks 4th in points allowed (96.5 per) and third in opponents' FG percentage (41.9%). Milwaukee: Greg Monroe will be sidelined at least two more weeks due to a left calf strain that he aggravated in Thursday's contest against the Boston Celtics. Monroe initially injured the calf in training camp and he was unavailable against the Hawks on Sunday, leading to Monday's decision to shut him down to give the injury a chance to heal. John Henson is in line for a primary role while Monroe is sidelined and he recorded season highs of 12 points and nine rebounds against Atlanta.to the mix. Middleton (17.2) is healthy right from the start this season and is a solid scorer plus lat year's R-O-Y, Malcolm Brogdon, is averaging 15/8 & 4.0 APG. Milwaukee is just middle-of-the-pack in scoring at 103.7 PPG (14th) but owns the NBA's second-best FG percentage at 49.3%. The pick: The Westbrook/Antetokounmpo.matchup takes center stage but 'Melo and George plus Middleton and Brogdon add plenty of 'electricity' to tonight's proceedings. Make the Over a 10* play. |
|||||||
10-31-17 | Bowling Green v. Kent State OVER 50 | Top | 44-16 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: It's the final day of October and two struggling MAC teams take the field on Halloween night, with the 1-7 Bowling Green Falcons visiting the 2-6 Kent State Golden Flashes. Both schools are 1-3 in MAC play (East Division), with each owning wins over Miami-Ohio (ironically, Miami is 2-2 in MAC play). Bowling Green comes in 1-7 SU and ATS and Kent State at 2-6 SU and 3-5 ATS. Bowling Green has won the last four meetings with Kent and owns a commanding 59-19-6 advantage in the all-time series. Bowling Green: Mike Jinks is in just his second season at Bowling Green and is not only a woeful 5-15 SU but also 5-15 ATS, as well. Bowling Green averages just 20.5 PPG on offense, while its defese allows 37.8 PPG (120th) on 526.5 YPG (127th). James Morgan started the last seven games of the 2016 season at QB for Bowling Green and was instrumental in the Falcons’ three-game winning streak to end the season. It was expected hat he would build on that performance but the exact opposite has been the case. He's completed just 45.3 percent of his passes with nearly as many interceptions (seven) as TD passes (nine). Morgan was benched in favor of freshman Jarrett Doege, who relieved Morgan in a 49-7 loss at Northwestern and then made his first start the following week at Middle Tennessee. He showed good accuracy (63.5 percent completion rate) and had some success running the offense but then suffered a back injury in his second start against Akron. Morgan took over and led the Falcons to a 37-29 victory on the road against Miami (Ohio) in the next game, but gave way to another freshman, Grant Loy, in last week’s 48-17 blowout home loss to Northern Illinois. What's the ext move? Kent State: The Golden Flashes lost 48-3 on Oct. 21 at Ohio U, getting out-gained 474-166 in yards. It was nothing new for a team which ranks 130th (dead-last!) among all FBS teams by averaging 10.0 PPG. Kent State averages only 249.6 YPG, which ranks 129th. The defense checks in allowing 32.9 PPG (102nd) on 437.8 YPG (100th). Take away the 38 points the Golden Flashes scored in their win over Howard (FCS) and they have scored a total of 42 points against seven FBS teams, which is 6.0 PPG!. The pick: OK, so the play is under, right? As the saying goes, "not so fast!" These two schools have plenty of history together (see above) and note that Bowling Green's 59 wins are the most for the Falcons over any other opponent in program history. Bowling Green also has won four in a row over Kent State, averaging 40.3 PPG. The Falcons will nedd some help from the Golden Flashes but not all that much. Bowling Green’s defensive issues should give the Golden Flashes a chance to at least move the ball and go above their scoring average. Make the Over a 10* play. |
|||||||
10-30-17 | Mavs v. Jazz OVER 192 | Top | 89-104 | Win | 100 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: The Mavs opened 0-4 this season and will come to Salt Lake City Monday night at 1-6 overall, with their lone win coming at home over Memphis on Oct. 25th (103-94). The Jazz are 3-3 on the season but 3-0 SU and ATS at home. The Jazz have yet to win on the road but are luckily near the beginning of a stretch with eight of nine at home. This marks the second home game in that stretch, as Utah hopes to move to 4-0 at home on the season with a win over the struggling Mavs. Dallas: The Mavericks have dropped six of their first seven games with head coach Rick Carlisle telling reporters after a 112-110 home loss to the Philadelphia 76ers on Saturday, “We’ve just got to do better really over the course of 48 minutes.That’s really the biggest thing.' Harrison Barnes leads the team in scoring a 18.1 PPG and scored a team-high 25 points on Saturday but was a minus-18 on the night and had some harsh words for himself and his fellow starters. "It’s our starting unit," Barnes told reporters. "At the beginning of the first quarter and at the beginning of the third quarter we’re getting off to slow starts, and it puts the whole team in a deficit. I mean, look at the way the second unit was playing with just the plus-minus. All of those guys were contributing and getting us back in the game. But as starters, we can’t put ourselves in that deficit." Utah: The Jazz lost back-to-back games at Phoenix and the Los Angeles Clippers last week but returned home and clamped down on defense in a 96-81 victory over the Los Angeles Lakers on Saturday. "This team is still trying to discover who it is," Jazz coach Quin Snyder told reporters. "...I've said all along, it's a work in progress. As long as our defense stays strong, we'll have an opportunity to be competitive while we're trying to get better." With Hayward lost to Boston via free agency, a possible new go-to scorer could be rookie guard Donovan Mitchell. He had 22 points on 9-of-16 shooting in Saturday's win while knocking down 3-of-6 from beyond the arc. However, Rodney Hood is the team's top overall scorer with 15.3 PPG with the other four Jazz starters all averaging at least 11 points per contest. Derrick Favors recorded his first double-double of the season with 14 points and 10 rebounds on Saturday and is 14-of-20 from the floor in the last two contests. The pick: The Mavs are scoring just 99.6 PPG (26th) on 41.9 percent shooting (29th), so will have their work cut out against a Utah team allowing only 94.5 PPG (2nd-best in the NBA). Utah games feature low over/under numbers but three of the four meetings last year between the two teams went over. Make the Over a 10* play. |
|||||||
10-29-17 | Steelers v. Lions OVER 45 | Top | 20-15 | Loss | -110 | 99 h 16 m | Show |
] The set-up: Sunday Night football travels to Ford Field as the 5-2 Pittsburgh Steelers visit the 3-3 Detroit Lions. It seems like a 'lifetime ago' that the Steelers lost 30-9 at home against the Jags, with Big Ben throwing five INTs, including two 'pick-sixes!' He famously told reporters after the game, "Maybe I don't have it anymore?" However, the Steelers won at KC in their next game (KC's first loss of the season) and followed with a 28-14 home win over the Bengals last Sunday. All of a sudden, the Steelers look as good as any team in the AFC (NFL?). The Lions were a controversial call against the Falcons away from a 4-0 start but with back-to-back losses prior to last week's bye, Detroit welcomes the Steelers to Detroit at just 3-3. Pittsburgh: RB LeVeon Bell had just 47 rushing yards in that loss to the Jags but he's carried the ball 32 and 35 times the last two weeks, gaining 313 yards. Big Ben has been good, not great, completing 63.2% with three TDs and just one INT in attempts. WR Brown has 12 catches for 210 yards with two TDs in the team's back-to-back wins (what a trio!); As always, Pittsburgh is one of the NFL's best defensive teams, allowing 16.6 PPG (3rd) on 258.7 YPG (2nd) Detroit: The Lions likely appreciated the bye week, especially QB Matthew Stafford. He took last week's bye to work his way past hamstring and ankle injuries. Detroit will need to come up big here, as the 5-2 Vikings are playing the 0-7 Browns in London. Stafford threw for 312 yards and three touchdowns in the Lions' last game (a 52-38 loss at New Orleans) but also had three picks (has 12 TDs and four INTs on the season). The pick: The good news for Detroit is that the Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a bye week but the Steelers are back to playing at an elite level. Big Ben is "far from done" and WR Antonio Brown is basically un-coverable. Play-action seems sure to work with Bell running for 134 yards or more in three of his last four games. Expect Pittsburgh to score, meaning Detroit's only chance to win is to match Pittsburgh, score for score. Make the Over an 8* play. |
|||||||
10-29-17 | Dodgers v. Astros UNDER 7 | Top | 12-13 | Loss | -120 | 20 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: the two major storylines coming out of Game 4 of the 2017 World Series are the following. Dodgers first baseman Cody Bellinger had a record-breaking rookie season, (he's the likely NL rookie of the year), and finally came through with a pair of critical hits, after going hit-less with eight strikeouts in his first 13 World Series at-bats. He ended his skid with a seventh-inning double and scored the game-tying run on a single. He then drove home the go-ahead run in the ninth with another double sparking LA's five-run 9th innings en route to a 6-2 LA. Moving to the Houston side of this series, just how can A.J. Hinch trust closer Ken Giles the rest of the way? Giles entered to start the ninth last night with the scored tied at 1-1 and got into immediate trouble. He allowed a lead-off single to Corey Seager and a walk to Justin Turner. Bellinger then lined a fastball to left-center. Giles' line was three ERs allowed on two hits and a walk without recording an out. That follows him allowing two runs on two hits and a walk in 1 2/3 innings in Houston's Game 2 World Series win. Of course, all should remember his Game 4 'meltdown' against the Yankees, which almost cost the Astros in the ALCS. The pitching matchup: Clayton Kershaw (3-0 & 2.96 ERA) and Dallas Keuchel (2-2 & 3.00) return here in Game 5 for a rematch of Game 1. Kershaw's postseason woes have been well-documented and were very real. However, he began a turnaround in 2016 and has completed it here in 2017, at least so far. The Dodgers have won all four of his starts this postseason and going back to his last start of the 2015 postseason, Kershaw is 6-1 over nine starts, with the Dodgers winning eight of those nine games! Keuchel dropped his second straight postseason start on the road in his head-to-head matchup with Kershaw in Game 1, surrendering HRs to Chris Taylor and Justin Turner in the 3-1 setback. However, those HRs were the first two allowed in 24 postseason innings this season by Keuchel. The pick: Kershaw has finally brought his regular season brilliance to the postseason and note that Keuchel's back-to-back postseason losses have both come on the road. In two 2017 home postseason starts, he's allowed just one run and struck 17 over 12 2/3 innings, while going 2-0 (0.71 ERA). Expect a 'replay' of Game 1. Make the Under a 10* play. |
|||||||
10-29-17 | Bucks v. Hawks OVER 203.5 | Top | 117-106 | Win | 100 | 16 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: The Atlanta Hawks opened the season with five consecutive road games and after winning their season-opener at Dallas, lost the final four games of the road trip. The Hawks returned to Atlanta for their first home game of the new season on Friday but lost to the Nuggets and former Atlanta star Pail Millsap, 105-100. Atlanta now hopes to snap its five-game slide when the 3-2 Milwaukee Bucks visit Philips Arena for a late Sunday afternoon contest. The Bucks just completed a four-game homestand 2-2 and begin a stretch of five of six on the road with this contest. Milwaukee: The Bucks head out on the road off a a 96-89 loss to the Boston Celtics on Thursday, the team's lowest-scoring performance of the season. "I thought the ball just didn't move tonight as it has in the first couple games," Milwaukee head coach Jason Kidd told reporters after the loss. "It's a great lesson learned, we'll watch it (Friday) and understand how we've got to move the ball. We got some good looks but when the ball didn't move it wasn't a pretty game to watch." Giannis Antetokounmpo is one of the league's brightest stars, averaging 35.0 points (on 62.4 percent shooting) along with 10.6 rebounds, 5.6 assists and 2.4 steals. Malcolm Brogdon was last season's NBA rookie of the year, becoming only second Milwaukee player to earn the award, joining Lew Alcindor (Kareem Abdul-Jabbar), who won it in 1969-70. He grew up in the Atlanta suburbs and led his school to two state championships. Brogdon was Milwaukee's second-round pick in 2016 and ranked toward the top of most statistical categories among rookies. He led rookies in assists (4.2), steals (1.1), was second in minutes (26.4), third in points (10.2) and ninth in rebounds (2.8). Atlanta: The Hawks own the second-longest run of postseason appearances in the NBA (10) but Atlanta hardly looks like a playoff team so far. The Hawks are building their offense around PG Dennis Schroder, wheo became the unquestioned leader of the team when Millsap and company departed over the summer. Schroder missed two games with an ankle injury and returned at less than 100 percent on Friday but still managed 20 points and six assists in 33 minutes. “I played him a little bit more than I wanted to, or intended,” Hawks coach Mike Budenholzer told reporters of Schroder. “He never wants to come out. Considering he hasn’t played for five days and coming off a pretty good sprain, it’s impressive what he did. He wanted to be there for his teammates. He’s a tough guy, for sure.” The pick: Atlanta has covered five straight against Milwaukee and the “Greek Freak” but as noted, this Hawk contingent bears little resemblance to the teams of recent seasons. Coming off an 'ugly' 89-point effort vs. Boston, I expect the Bucks to much more efficient in this one and with this low over/under number, for the Over to be a 10* play. |
|||||||
10-29-17 | Vikings v. Browns OVER 37.5 | Top | 33-16 | Win | 100 | 88 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: The NFL's latest London game kicks off Sunday's Week 8 schedule of games at Twickenham Stadium. The 5-2 Minnesota Vikings and the 0-7 Cleveland Browns wil lstart at 9:30 ET, as the Browns will play a regular-season game in London for the first time in franchise history. The Vikings enter on a three-game winning streak and sit atop the NFC North and with Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers likely out for the season, are 'sniffing' a division title. For the Browns, they are off an 'ugly' 1-15 season and there has been no indication so far, that too much will be different here in 2017. The Browns have led in a game only once this season, 7-3 over the Jets in the fifth game, and that advantage lasted only 5:06 before New York moved ahead for good. Minnesota: The Vikings have topped 30 points just once all season, averaging a modest 20.9 PPG (19th). However, Minnesota's defense has compensated, allowing 17.0 PPG (5th) on 283.0 YPG (4th). Minnesota's offense has seen QB Sam Bradford (knee) in and out of the lineup and excellent rookie RB Dalvin Cook (354 YR on 4.8 YPC) was lost for the season with a torn ACL in Week 4. However, Case Keenum is 3-2 as a starter and relieved Bradford in a comeback 20-17 win over the Bears in Week 5. RBs Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon have stepped up since Cook was lost for the season. Again, the Vikings’ defense has been terrific, holding four straight opponents under 275 total yards, after allowing a season-low 208 yards in a 24-16 win over Baltimore last week. Cleveland:The QB history of the Browns (for quite awhile now) has been a complete disaster. Rookie DeShone Kizer has just three TD passes and 11 INTs (awful 47.8 QB rating), while Kevin Hogan is no better. He has five INTs in way fewer attempts and owns a higher interception percentage than Kizer. The Browns don't own much of a running game (92.3 YPG ranks 25th) and the team's 14.7 PPG is the second-lowest in the NFL. The defense allows 304.7 YPG (9th) but with all the turnovers putting the defense in tough spots, Cleveland is allowing 24.1 PPG, which ranks 24th. The pick: The Vikings have not scored much and neither have the Browns. However, these London games always create a different atmosphere, and with a low total, the Over is an 8* play |
|||||||
10-28-17 | Pistons v. Clippers OVER 207.5 | Top | 95-87 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: Who needs Chris Paul? The Clippers and Paul parted ways in the off-season, as he traded to the Rockets but the 'new-look" Clippers, now clearly led by Blake Griffin, are off to a 4-0 start. The Rockets may be 5-1 but the Clippers are currently the lone unbeaten team in the young NBA season and will look to make it a 5-0 start when the Pistons visit Staples Center on Saturday night.The Pistons are 3-2 and have quite a weekend in store, playing the Clippers tonight and then heading north for a game with the defending champion Warriors Sunday night in Oakland. Detroit: The only consistent theme this year so far for the Pistons is the team's inconsistency, as Detroit has alternated wins and losses through its first five games. However, the Pistons are arguably coming off their best performance of the season, a 122-101 victory over the Minnesota Timberwolves this past Wednesday. Tobias Harris led the way with 34 points against the T-wloves and leads Detroit in scoring at 23.6 PPG (adds 5.4 RPG). The team also has three other double digit scorers in PG Jackson (15.2 & 6.2 APG), SG Bradley (14.6) and center Drummond (13.4 & 13.2). LA Clippers: Los Angeles remains undefeated thanks to star forward Blake Griffin, who buried a last-second three-pointer in Thursday's 104-103 win at Portland. Griffin is settling nicely into his role as the team's undisputed leader, averaging 26.3-9.3-4.5. Paul is not the only player gone from last year's LA team, as so are double-digit scorers Redick (15.0) and Crawford (12.3) plus a solid frontcourt player in Speights (8.7 & 4.5). Supporting Griffin are guards Beverley (14.3) and Williams (13.0 & 4.3 APG) along with SF Gallinari (13.3 & 5.5). Griffin has scored at least 22 points in each of Los Angeles' first four games and leads the team in assists (4.5). That said, he is not the only star player left on the Clippers, as center DeAndre Jordan hauled in 18 rebounds for the second straight game on Thursday and checks in averaging 9.5 & 18.3. The pick: The Pistons have faltered in games following their first two wins, as they've followed up a 12-point win at Charlotte with a four-point loss in Washington and then scoring 86 points in a loss to Philadelphia after last week's win in New York. Detroit had lost 11 consecutive games game in the series before a 108-97 home win back on Nov. 25, 2016. The Clippers are allowing a league-low 91.8 PPG but are averaging 116.0 PPG here at Staples Center, while the Pistons are scoring 111.0 PPG and allowing 111.0 PPG on the road in the early going. This game will be higher scoring than the posted total anticipates. Make the Over a 10* play. |
|||||||
10-28-17 | Oklahoma State v. West Virginia UNDER 74 | Top | 50-39 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cowboys were held under 41 points for the first time last Saturday at Texas but were able to escape with a 13-10 OT win over the Longhorns, keeping the team's CFP hopes alive. The 11th-ranked Cowboys are 6-1 overall (3-1 in the Big 12) and will travel to Milan Puskar Stadium in Morgantown to take on the 22nd-ranked West Virginia Mountaineers, who are 5-2 overall and also 3-1 in Big 12 play. The series is tied at 4-all but OSU has won the last two years, 37-20 and 33-26 (OT). Oklahoma State: QB Mason Rudolph already owns 30 school records and enters this contest leading the nation in passing yards (2,650) and passing yards per game (378.6). He's completed 161-of-242 attempts (66.5 percent) for 19 TDs and four INTs. He's backed by an solid rushing game (197.4 YPG which ranks 38th), led by RB Hill (750 YR / 5.4 YPC). OSU averages 43.7 PPG (3rd) on 590.1 YPG (1st). Defensively, OSU allows 22.3 PPG (43rd) on 359.7 YPG (41st), and the team's stop unit "saved the day" against Texas. The Longhorns were held to just 10 points on 283 yards, while converting only 3 of 17 third down attempts. West Virginia: QB Will Grier has the misfortune of playing in the same conference as Heisman Trophy contenders like Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield and Oklahoma State's Mason Rudolph. However, Grier is some talent, completing 66.3 percent with 26 TDs and just five INTs, leading West Va to rank 4th in passing YPG at 364.0. Grier's favorite target is WR David Sills V, once a highly touted prep QB prospect himself, who leads the nation with 15 TD receptions. RB Crawford (639 YR / 6.1 YPC / 7 TDs) offers nice balance, with West Va/ checking in averaging 43.3 PPG (4th) on 540.1 YPG (5th). Defensively, West Va. allows 29.0 PPG (85th) on 450.0 YPG (12th). The pick: The QB matchup commands the spotlight plus WR James Washington of OSU (leads the nation with an average of 24.1 YPC and his 32 career receiving TDs is tops among all active FBS players) will not want to accept "second-billing" to West Virginia's David Sills V (see above). Oklahoma State returns home next Saturday for "Bedlam" with Oklahoma but that game won't hold much importance if the Cowboys lose here. Yes, these are two offensive juggernauts but I've 'made a living:" playing these high totals under, all season. Second verse, same as the first. Make the Under an 8* play. |
|||||||
10-27-17 | Dodgers v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
The set-up: It seems impossible that the Dodgers and Astros will be able to top the drama of Game 2 in tonight's Game 3, as the 2017 World Series shifts venues to Houston's Minute Maid Park. The teams combined for a World Series-record eight HRs in Game 2 with George Springer's two-run shot in the 11th inning finally deciding the outcome, as the Astros' come-from-behind 7-6 victory evened the series at one-all. Along with the record number of home runs, the other story line coming out of Game 2 was that the LA bullpen finally showed some vulnerability. Eight LA relievers pitched seven innings and allowed 11 hits (including three of Houston's four HRs) and six runs, ending a 28-inning scoreless stretch in the 2017 postseason. The teams will now play three games in Houston and unless one team sweeps all three (seems very unlikely, right?), the series will return to LA for a Game 6 and a possible Game 7. The pitching matchup: Yu Darvish (2-0 & 1.59 ERA) starts for LA and Lance McCullers Jr. (0-0 & 2.08). Darvish was 4-3 with a 3.44 ERA in nine regular-season starts after the Dodgers acquired him from Texas, where he was only 6-9 with a 4.01 ERA. His moneyline mark this regular season (Texas and LA combined), was minus-$1302, the third-worst among all 2017 starters and he entered the postseason 0-2 with 5.40 ERA in two previous starts with Texas. However, Darvish has struck out 14 batters in 11 1/3 innings this postseason to improve to 2-2 with a 3.52 ERA in four career playoff starts. He also has a nice history at Minute Maid Park during his tenure with Texas, going 4-1 with a 2.16 ERA and 0.74 WHIP in six career outings. McCullers has posted a 2.33 ERA in four career playoff appearances (two starts) and is making his second start this postseason. He took a shutout into the seventh inning of Game 4 of the ALCS but allowed a lead-off HR to Aaron Judge and was removed with a 4-1 lead. A.J. Hinch's decision didn't work, as Houston's bullpen gave up five runs in a 6-4 New York win. However, Hinch handed the ball in Game 7 of that series to McCullers again and he delivered four shutout innings in Houston's 4-0 series-clinching Game 7 victory. The pick: Both teams have 'deadly' lineups but both Darvish and McCullers seem up to the challenge. Darvish's turnaround came with his strong finish to the regular season (one ER allowed over his final three starts for an 0.47 ERA in 19 1/3 innings with a 21-1 KW ratio). McCullers struggled down the stretch and was not given a start until Houston's eighth postseason contest (Game 4 of the ALCS) but as noted, he delivered a quality effort in that game (should never have been taken out after the Judge HR) and then closed the door on the Yanks in Game 7 of the ALCS, pitching four scoreless innings while allowing just one hit with six Ks. In his last 10 postseason innings, he''s allowed just one ER (0.90 ERA) on three hits with nine Ks. Make the Under a 10* play. |
|||||||
10-27-17 | Rockets v. Hornets OVER 211 | Top | 109-93 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: Quite naturally, the city of Houston is all wrapped-up with the Astros, who will host the Dodgers Friday, Saturday and Sunday in the 2017 World Series. However, that city's NBA team, the Rockets, tipped-off the 2017-18 season with a stirring 122-121 comeback win at Golden State back on Opening Night (Oct. 17th). Houston is 4-1 and will visit the Charlotte Hornets Friday night for the second of a three-game road trip. The Hornets have opened their season 2-2 (0-2 on the road but 2-0 at home). Houston: The Rockets opened a three-game trip with a 105-104 victory at Philadelphia on Wednesday, with a buzzer-beating three-pointer from Eric Gordon providing the difference. Center Clint Capela was brilliant in the win, scoring 16 points, grabbing 20 rebounds and adding four blocks. SF Trevor Ariza (foot) sat out Wednesday and is day-to-day plus Chris Paul (strained left knee) hasn't played since the season-opener. Gordon had 29 points (24.6 PPG) and James Harden 27 (26.4 & 9.6 APG) but neither shot well from long distance in the game. Gordon went just 5-for-16 from beyond the arc, Harden 2-for-8. Houston is still not where it wants to be on offense, shooting just 28.1 percent from three-point range. Charlotte: PG Kemba Walker (21.0 & 6.0 APG), SG Jeremy Lamb (15.8) and reserve PF Frank Kaminsky (15.8) are off to good starts for Charlotte, as is the team's biggest addition from the off-season, Dwight Howard. The one-time Rocket is averaging 13.3 PPG and a whopping 18.8 RPG. The Hornets are 0-2 on the road but have won their two home games by scores of 111-96 and 109-91. |
|||||||
10-26-17 | Clippers v. Blazers OVER 211.5 | Top | 104-103 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: The NBA season is just over a week old and there are currently only two remaining unbeatens. The SA Spurs moved to 4-0 with a win last night in Miami and tonight, the LA Clippers will take to the Moda Center floor against the Portland Trail Blazers looking to join the Spurs at 4-0. The Blazers are a strong offensive team, averaging 112.8 PPG (7th) and are hitting 44.4 percent from three-point range (2nd) to check in at 3-1 on the young season. LA Clippers: The Clippers traded away franchise cornerstone PG Chris Paul over the summer but also gone are double-digit scorers Redick and Crawford plus a solid frontcourt player in Speights (8.7 & 4.5). Blake Griffin is now "the man" and taking on a bigger role with Paul gone. He's averaging 26.7-9.7-4.3. Center Jordan is still around and averaging 10.3 & 18.3 but three new additions have also shown well early. Guards Beverley (14.7) and Williams (13.0 & 5.3 APG) plus swingman Gallinari (12.3 & 6.3) have all stepped up nightly. However, it's LA's defense which has led to the team's 3-0 start, with the Clippers ranking first in points allowed (88.0), opponents' FG percentage (40.7) and opponents' three-point percentage (29.0). Portland: The Blazers have a terrific guard tandem in McCollum (25.7 & 4.7) and Lillard (21.0-5.5-5.1) plus big guards Turner (13.2 & 4.2) and Cannaughton (10.8) are contributing as well. A key to the team's success will be the play of the 7-0 Jusef Nurkic (12.8 & 7.8), who made such a big impression after being acquired late last season in a trade with Denver. Portland, as noted, is a superior offensive team (see above) but the Blazers weren't at their best on offense against New Orleans on Tuesday, instead showing off some defensive 'chops' by holding the Pelicans to 39.5 percent shooting in a 103-93 win. The pick: The Clippers lost to the Blazers in the 2016 playoffs (Paul got hurt early in that series) but last season, took all three meetings. Now let's see how these "new-look" Clippers fare. So far, they've been able to cruise past a pair of high lottery teams in the Lakers and Suns plus had little trouble knocking off Utah 102-84, a team that knocked them out of the postseason last spring. However, this year's Utah team may not be a playoff contender this season. Portland has the makings of a strong bench and that was on display in the team's last game. Turner (13 points, seven rebounds), Ed Davis (12 points and 10 rebounds, Connaughton (eight points, six rebounds), rookie Caleb Swanigan (five points, eight boards) and Meyers Leonard (five points on 2-for-2 shooting, two boards in six minutes), all made contributions. This contest will be the second of 10 home contests for Portland over the next 11 games. It offers a chance to get the season off to a fast start. Not sure the Blazers will beat the Clippers but they will score vs. LA, forcing the Clippers to open up as well. Make the Over a 10* play. |
|||||||
10-26-17 | Stanford v. Oregon State OVER 58.5 | Top | 15-14 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: The Stanford Cardinal opened the 2017 season ranked 14th in the AP's preseason poll but after losing badly at USC 42-24 in its second game of the season and following with a 201-7 loss at San Diego State, the Cardinal's season was headed for big trouble. However, led by spectacular RB Bryce Love (198.1 YPG rushing on 10.3 YPC and 11 TDs), Stanford has won four in a row while averaging 41.0 PPG. The now 20th-ranked Cardinal will travel to Reser Stadium in Corvallis on Thursday night to take on the Oregon State Beavers. Oregon State is 1-6, beating only Portland State and that win came just 35-32 here at home. Stanford: The Cardinal last played on Oct. 14th, a 49-7 rout on the road at Oregon. The Cardinal out-gained the Ducks by a 504-309 margin. Love had 147 yards and two TDs and QB Kellar Chryst was back healthy, throwing for 181 yards (15 of 21) with three TDs. Three Stanford QBs have combined for 11 TDs and three INTs but Chryst in the best of the bunch. Stanford's defense has not allowed more than 22.6 PPG in any of the last seven seasons, allowing 19 PPG or less, four times. This year the Cardinal are allowing 22.0 PPG (42nd) but on 416.9 YPG to rank 89th (unusually high for a Stanford team). Oregon State: I noted above that OSU only owns one win, that unimpressive three-point victory over Portland, which was back on Sep. 2nd. The Beavers have since lost five in a row and a head coach as well, in Gary Andersen. Andersen stepped down on Oct. 9 after the Beavers dropped five of their first six games by an average of 31.4 PPG. Interim head coach Cory Hall's first game was Oregon State's most competitive since beating Portland State by three points on Sept. 2, but the Beavers fell to Colorado 36-33 on Oct. 14. Oregon State held a 33-29 lead with 4:22 left in that game but the Beaver defense were unable to hold the lead as Colorado scored on a 13-yard TD pass with just 1:34 left in regulation. The Beavers actually out-gained the Buffaloes by a 569-385 margin. Leading the way for Oregon State was RB Ryan Nall who carried the ball 24 times for 172 yards and 3 TDs. Defensively, Oregon State is a mess, allowing a whopping 43.7 PPG (128th) on 478.3 (117th). The pick: Expect RB Love and a now-healthy QB Chyrst to have their way against OSU's defense but also note that Satnford's D is a little 'off' in 2017, especially against the run, allowing 196.3 YPG on the ground (98th) on 5.0 YPC. Make the Over an 8* play. |
|||||||
10-26-17 | Jets v. Penguins UNDER 6.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 21 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: The Winnipeg Jets have been off since last Friday but begin a two-day, two-game road trip tonight against the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins. The Jets won last Friday, 4-3 at home bvs. Minnesota, giving them four wins in their last five games to reach 4-3-0 on the season. The 6-3-1 Penguins came back after giving up seven goals in Tampa Bay on Saturday to shut down Connor McDavid and the Edmonton Oilers in a 2-1 overtime victory Tuesday night at home Winnipeg: Nikolaj Ehlers has scored all of his team-high six goals in the last five games and is tied with Mark Scheifele (three assists, last two games) and Blake Wheeler (goal, three assists in last three) for the team lead with eight points. Patrik Laine scored his third and fourth goals of the season against Minnesota, both on the power play. The Jets have been off since Friday but is that a good thing as they visit PPG Paints Arena? "I personally don't like having this many days between games," Winnipeg defenseman Tyler Myers told the team's website. "When you have this much time off, you want to keep that pace up. That's a big part of our identity with this team. We like to play fast. I think we've been doing a pretty good job of it. We have to make sure with these practice days to keep that pace up." Pittsburgh: Evgeni Malkin leads the team with 11 points and Phil Kessel is tied with captain Sidney Crosby for second with 10, after his overtime game winner Tuesday. Casey DeSmith was recalled to back up No. 1 G Matt Murray after Antti Niemi was lost on waivers. The 26-year-old has yet to play an NHL contest. However, it will be Murray in goal tonight, who is . "I think there's still a handful of teams in the league that play a heavy game," Pittsburgh coach Mike Sullivan said Wednesday. "I think Winnipeg has a little bit of a hybrid style in that they can skate as well. They're a team that has good size, that has a physical element to their game, but certainly they can skate as well." When the teams last met, a 7-4 Penguins win March 8, Pittsburgh's Evgeni Malkin and Winnipeg's Blake Wheeler fought, a carryover from a hit Malkin laid on Wheeler in an earlier game. It was one of two fights in that game. "(Thursday) is a good test for us," Malkin said. "They might be the most physical team in the league. We need to play like (Tuesday) night." The pick: The series has been one-sided lately, with Pittsburgh having won nine of the last 10 meetings. Connor Hellebuyck has been outstanding, going 4-0-0 with a 2.32 GAA and .928 SP and despite the fact that Steve Mason is 9-5-1 in his career against the Penguins, will get the start against Murray and the Pens. Murray's GAA (3.05 per) and SP (.905) are higher than usual but one can't ignore that the Pens are 6-0-1 in his starts. However, this one will be a tough-sledding, so the 10* play is on the Under. |
|||||||
10-25-17 | Wizards v. Lakers UNDER 229 | Top | 99-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: There are just four unbeaten teams remaining in the NBA (all 3-0) but the only one playing in the Eastern Conference is the Washington Wizards. The Wizards will visit Staples Center tonight to take on the 1-2 LA Lakers and a win would mean opening 4-0. That's no small deal, as the Wizards last opened 4-0 back in 1978, when the team was named the Bullets. Lonzo Ball has a 'target on his back' due to his big-mouth father and that's particularly true when the Lakers are playing a team with a notable backcourt. Washington: The Wizards are an example of a team which owns a notable backcourt duo, featuring PG John Wall (24.3 & 10.0 APG) and SG Bradley Beal (23.3 & 5.0). Wall's scoring total has fallen in each of the last two games but his assist totals have risen, topping out at 12 - against just two turnovers - in the win over the Nuggets. Beal has at least 20 points in all three games despite a 3-of-12 showing from three-point range,. Adding more fuel to fire ahead of tonight's game, center Marcin Gortat (13.0 & 10.3) trash-talked Ball on Twitter claiming that Wizards PG John Wall "will torture" Ball. LA Lakers: Ball's father is not helping but he is who he is and don't expect a let up. Ball was just 3-of-13 from the floor in Sunday's 119-112 loss to New Orleans but handed out 13 assists and grabbed eight rebounds. He averaging 13.3-9.3-8.7 assists.but is shooting only 34.8 percent from the floor, including 29.4 percent on threes. Ball was one of four starters who failed to score in double figures in the loss to the Pelicans, as backups Jordan Clarkson (24 points) and Kyle Kuzma (20) carried the load. Clarkson had scored 18 and 17 points in LA's first two games. He's shooting 51.1 percent from the floor, including 7-for-14 from three-point distance, leading LA in scoring at 19.7 PPG (Pope debuted against the Pelicans and did score 20). The pick: The Lakers struggle defensively, allowing 119.0 PPG (28th) and Washington has a talented start-five. However, this over/under is too high, so I'm making the Under a 10* play. |
|||||||
10-24-17 | Blackhawks v. Golden Knights OVER 6 | Top | 2-4 | Push | 0 | 18 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: The Vegas Golden Knights have opened 6-1-0 despite losing goaltenders. No. 1 goalie Marc-Andre Fleury was the first to go down with a concussion, Calvin Pickard was traded and now waiver pickup Malcolm Subban has been lost for at least four weeks with a lower-body injury in Saturday’s 3-2 overtime victory over St. Louis. The 5-2-2 Chicago Blackhawks will pay a visit Tuesday night to Las Vegas, after winning 4-2 in Arizona on Saturday to open a quick two-game road trip. Chicago: The Blackhawks exploded for 15 goals in their first two games but have a more modest 17 over their last seven contests. However, Chicago has played well defensively, allowing 2.44 GPG (5th), with netminder Corey Crawford leading the way with five wins a 1.86 GAA and 945 SP. Defenseman Michal Kempny (plus-6 rating) in addition to rookie blueliner Jan Rutta (two goals, five points, plus-5) are off to strong starts. Brandon Saad tops the team with six goals but has been held off the scoresheet in each of the last three games. Former Hart Trophy winner Patrick Kane notched his fourth goal and team-leading 11th point in Chicago's win in Arizona on Saturday. Vegas: The Golden Knights are the first team to win six of their first seven games in their inaugural season!. Three of their victories have come in OT and despite the etam's goaltending issues, Vegas coming is allowing 2.43 GPG (4th). Fleury is making progress and could be back soon but former Columbus second-round pick Oscar Dansk, who stopped 10 of 11 shots in Saturday’s victory, will likely be in net Tuesday backed up by Maxime Lagace. James Neal has not scored in three games but leads the team with six goals overall and fellow forward Oscar Lindberg is the only other player with more than two goals (three). Rookie Alex Tuch, given a chance with injuries to fellow forwards Jonathan Marchessault and Erik Haula, has posted two goals and an assist in three games with the Golden Knights after playing six scoreless games with Minnesota in 2016-17. The pick: I realize that Chicago's scoring has decreased since its fast start but the Blackhawks should be to take advantage of the Golden Knights’ situation in net. That said, Vegas just seems to find ways to win. Therefore, the Over will be an 8* play. |
|||||||
10-24-17 | Astros v. Dodgers UNDER 7 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 48 h 40 m | Show |
The setup: It's been well-documented that the Dodgers are back in the World Series for the first time since they upended the Oakland A's back in 1988. As for Houston, this marks the franchise's second-ever World Series appearance having lost the 2005 Fall Classic to the Chicago White Sox. The Dodgers won a MLB-best 104 regular-season games, then rolled over the Arizona Diamondbacks (3-0) and Chicago Cubs (4-1) to get here. Houston's 101-win squad knocked out the Boston Red Sox (3-1) but after a taking a 2-0 lead over the New York Yankees, lost all three games in the Bronx. However, a return to Houston sparked the Astro bats and backed by terrific pitching from Veralnder in Game 6 and the Morton/McCullers duo in Game 7, advanced to take on the Dodgers. The pitching matchup: Dallas Keuchel is 2-1 (2.60 ERA) vthis postseason and Clayton Kershaw is 2-0 (3.63 ERA) witth LA winning all three of his starts. Keuchel has struck out 25 in 17 1/3 innings over three starts this October and is 4-1 with a 2.59 ERA in six career postseason appearances (five starts). Keuchel was 14-5 in the regular season (2.90 ERA), with Houston going 16-7 in his starts. Kershaw has served up six HRs in three starts this postseason but his career ledger has improved to 6-7 with a 4.40 ERA in 21 appearances (17 starts). He is 3-2 with a 2.38 ERA in eight career starts against the Astros (Dodgers are 4-4). Kershaw went 18-4 (2.31 ERA) in the regular season, with LA going 23-4 in his starts. The pick: We all know about Houston's terrific lineup but we saw it silenced in three games against the Yankees in the Bronx. Houston will first have to reach Kershaw and then have to deal with an LA bullpen that didn't allow a hit in 29 at-bats in the NLCS against the Cubs plus owns an 0.94 ERA this postseason. Houston's bullpen is a concern but I see no reason to expect anything less than a stellar effort from Keuchel. Pitchers' duel predicted. Make the Under a 10* play. |
|||||||
10-22-17 | Canucks v. Red Wings OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: The Red Wings missed last year's playoffs, ending 25 consecutive postseason appearances. Detroit began the current season 4-1-0 but suffered losses early this week at home to the Lightning and then at Toronto, before coughing up a late lead in a 5-4 overtime defeat against Washington at home Friday. Detroit (now 4-3-1) hosts Vancouver tonight, which comes in 3-3-1 after rallying to knock off Buffalo 4-2 on Friday to improve to 2-1-0 on its current five-game road trip. When the Wings won their most recent Stanley Cup (in 2007-08), it was Henrik Zetterberg leading the way, winning the Conn Smythe Trophy. When the Canucks reached Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals in 2011, it was was Sedin twins, Henrik and Daniel, leading the way, finishing 1-2 on the team in playoff scoring, combining for 12 goals and 30 assists. The glory days are long gone for Detroit and Vancouver but the link to that bygone era for both teams is that their best players then, remain their best players now. Vancouver: Henrik Sedin is Vancouver's captain and son a line with his brother. Former first-round pick Jake Virtanen was placed on a line with the Sedins against Buffalo and he responded with his first point of the season on an assist. However, the Sedins, who have combined for more than 2,000 career points, each have only three in the early going. However, forward Derek Dorsett, who played only 14 games when his season was ended by December neck surgery, scored twice Friday and already has four goals this season. However, the Vancouver power play has struggled (4-for-35 or 11.4 percent). Detroit: The Red Wings, in need of salary cap space after agreeing to terms Friday on a one-year contract with holdout forward Andreas Athanasiou, made a pair of trades on Saturday. Center Riley Sheahan ($2.075 million) was traded to the Pittsburgh Penguins for forward Scott Wilson ($575,000), a move that cleared enough room to fit in Athanasiou's $1.387 million deal. The tem also made a trade surround with the Rangers for players in the AHL. Tomas Tatar has three goals in the last two agmes and fellow forward Darren Helm scored for the first time this season in Friday’s setback. Defenseman Mike Green tops the team with 10 points (nine on assists) while Zetterberg and fellow forward Dylan Larkin are next with nine apiece. Anthony Mantha has seven points but the right wing has been scoreless with a minus-5 rating over the last three games The pick: This marks the fourth game of Vancouver's five-game road trip, while Detroit may be a little leg-weary, playing its fourth game in seven nights. Detroit has seen six of its eight games go "over" so far, and that's the paly here. Make the Over a 10* |
|||||||
10-22-17 | Bengals v. Steelers OVER 41 | Top | 14-29 | Win | 100 | 124 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: Two bitter AFC North rivals square off Sunday at Pittsburgh's Heinz Field. The Cincinnati Bengals opened the 2017 season losing two games at home (scored only nine points) but a Week 3 OT loss at Green Bay (just 27-24), helped turn their season around. The Bengals have won at Cincy 31-7 and then back home against Buffalo (20-16) since, so they'll have a chance to get back to .500 with a win here against the hated-Steelers. Pittsburgh will be looking to maintain its place atop the AFC North (curently 4-20, after handing KC its first loos of the 2017 season last Sunday on the road. Pittsburgh won 19-13 at Arrowhead, holding the Chiefs to just 251 yards of total offense. Meanwhile, RB Le’Veon Bell had his best game of 2017, rushing for 179 yards and a TD, while Antonio Brown led Pittsburgh with 8 catches for 155 yards and the team’s lone receiving TD (now there's a shocker!). As for Big Ben, he bounced back from a four-INT game in Week 5, by completing 17 of 25 for 252 yards (one TD and one INT). Cincinnati: The Bengals started slowly offensively in 2017 (see above) and remain low in most offensive categories. Cincy ranks 30th with 16.8 YPG on 311.0 YPG, which ranks 24th. QB Andy Dalton had a 'nightmare' of a first game (four INTs and a lost fumble) but competed 80.7% against Creen Bay and Cleveland (6 TDs / 0 INTs), before throwing two INTs in the win over Buffalo in Week 5. He will eventually need help from a running game averaging just 84.0 YPG (28th). Keeping Cincy 'alive' is a defense which ranks second in scoring (16.2 PPG) and total yards (262.8 YPG). Pittsburgh: No one really bought Big Ben's "Maybe I don't have it anymore" lament and looking around the AFC, isn't Pittsburgh as likely as any team to be playing in a second straight AFC championship game. Big Ben's a proven winner and in Bell and Brown, the Steelers may just have the best RB and WR in all of the NFL (name a better set of teammates!). Pittsburgh's offense will be just fine by year's end and as always, the defense is near the top in most categories. How about 4th in points allowed (17.0 PPG) and 3rd in yards allowed (272.0 YPG) The pick: Big Ben is in his 14th year (hard to believe) and while it's been slow-sledding, expect him to be just fine, working with Bell and Brown. As for the Bengals, the team's 'ugly' 0-2 start is behind them and a Week 6 bye may have been "just what the doctor ordered." Two defenses usually spell 'under' but "not so fast!" You have two QBs more than capable of putting up points and in Brown and A.J. Green, two of the NFL's very best WRs, as well. Also, there is talk that the bye week has allowed WR John Ross (Cincy's No. 1 pick in the 2017 draft out of Washington) enough time to get over a knee injury that bothered him all season. Surprise, this game is headed over. Make it an 8* play. |
|||||||
10-21-17 | Yankees v. Astros OVER 8 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: The Houston Astros took control of the AL West by mid-April, spending almost the entire regular season in first place. However, after a deflating 5-0 Game 5 loss to the Yankees in the ALCS, the Astros found themselves 'behind the eight-ball' for tehe first time in almost, forever. Fortunately, they had made a deal for Verlander "just for this situation!" The former AL Cy Young and MVP winner was 5-0 with a 1.06 ERA, 0.65 WHIP and a 43-5 KW ratio in five regular season starts for Houston and entered last night's game 3-0 with a 2.04 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and a 16-5 KW ratio in three playoff appearances (two starts). Verlander came through with seven scoreless innings last night and the 'silent' Houston bats provided seven runs on eight hits! It's now a Game 7 for the right to meet the Dodgers in the 2017 World Series. The pitching matchup: C.C. Sabathia (1-0 & 2.30 ERA) gets the ball for New York, while Houston has decided to give Charlie Morton (0-1 & 10.13 ERA) this Game 7 start. Sabathia was15-6 for the Yanks in 2012 but entered 2017 off a four-year run in which he had gone just 32-39. No one saw his 2017 season coming, as he finished the regular season 14-5 (3.69 ERA). The Yankees were 19-8 in his starts, giving him a plus-$1163 moneyline mark which ranked fourth-best among all starters. He's come up big this postseason as well and enters this game 10-0 with a 1.69 ERA in 13 turns following a New York loss in 2017 (regular and postseason!). Morton is in his 10th big-league season, but authored a "career year," going 14-7 with a 3.62 ERA, The Astros were 16-9 in all his starts (plus-$408). He started the clinching game of the ALDS at Boston but did not factor in the decision, leaving after 4 1/3 innings. He surrendered seven hits and walked a pair but limited the damage to two runs in a game Houston went on to win 5-4. However, in Game 3 of the ALCS against Sabathia,lasted only 3 2/3 innings while allowing seven runs on six hits, including a three-run HR by Todd Frazier. Morton is getting the nod over Lance McCullers Jr. and will be making only his fourth career postseason start. The pick: Which team holds the advantage? Houston has won 16 of its last 18 contests at Minute Maid Park dating back to the regular season but on the other hand, C.C over Morton gives New York the edge. I sure can't trust Morton but the Astros are the better team and their Game 6 performance offensively, was a welcome relief for all Houston fans. Lots of pressure here for all involved and it's my bet that the team's respective offenses will determine the winner here, not the starting pitchers. Make the Over a 10* play.
|
|||||||
10-21-17 | 76ers v. Raptors UNDER 215.5 | Top | 94-128 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: The 76ers have preached that fans should "trust the process' but the team needs to deliver "something" this season. Philly lost the team's season-opener 120-115 at Washington on Wednmesdya and last night, faltered down the stretch in a 102-92 home loss to the Boston Celtics, falling to 0-2 on the young season. The 76ers will visit Toronto on Saturday, in search of their first win. Toronto's All-Star DeMar DeRozan had a poor season-debut for the Raptors (11 points on 2-of-9 shooting) but center Jonas Valanciunas had 23 points and 15 rebounds in Thursday's 117-100 win over Chicago. |
|||||||
10-21-17 | Oklahoma State v. Texas OVER 64.5 | Top | 13-10 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: The (5-1, 2-1 Big 12) Oklahoma State Cowboys are ranked 10th in the latest AP poll and travel to Austin to play the (3-3, 2-1 Big 12) Texas Longhorns at Royal Texas Memorial Stadium. OSU brings the nation's No. 1 offense (617.2 YPG) and its No. 2 scoring offense (48.8 PPG) into the contest, after gaining a school-record 747 yards in a 59-16 rout of Baylor last Saturday. The Longhorns are off their annual Red River Showdown against Oklahoma, a game in which Texas rebound from a 23-10 deficit to take a 24-23 4th-quarter lead, only to lose 29-24. Oklahoma State: QB Mason Rudolph is completing 66.7 percent with 19 TDs and just four INTs, with OSU leading the nation with 411.2 YPG through the air. Considering how "pass-happy" the offense is, it's impressive that the Cowboys are also averaging 199.5 YPG on the ground (on 5.4 YPC), led by RB Hill's 633 yards on 6.0 YPC. With the kind of numbers OSU's offense puts up, the defense has to be good but not great. That's a fair description for an OSU stop-unit that's allowing 24.3 PPG (56th). Texas: Steve Buechele opened the season as Texas' starting QB but it was freshman Sam Ehlinger who led the comeback against Texas. He's completing just 54.5 percent of his passes for 1,178 yards, six touchdowns and three interceptions but does have has at least one TD pass in all four of his games this season. Of greater importance is his ability to run, as Ehlinger has rushed for 217 yards (5.2 YPC) in the Longhorns' last two games. He will start in this one, leading an offense averaging 33.7 PPG (41st). Defensively, Texas is allowing 24.7 PPG on 381.5 YPG but it's hard to ignore the 518 yards it allowed last Saturday to Oklahoma, a team with a similar QB to Rudolph, in Baker Mayfield. The pick: Oklahoma State was a trendy pick to make the four-team College Football Playoff but that was before it was upset at home 44-31 by TCU back on Sep. 23. TCU is now the leader of the pack in the Big 12 and currently ranks 4th in the latest AP poll. OSU is quite 'dead' yet but the Cowboys no longer have any margin of error. The Longhorns hold a 24-7 series lead over Oklahoma State and a 15-5 advantage in Austin but the Cowboys have put their mark on the series by winning five of the past seven meetings. In fact, after losing 15 of 16 times in Austin, the Cowboys have won the last four meetings in Austin, marking the longest winning streak against Texas at home by one team. Here's the catch though, Tom Herman’s Houston & Texas teams are a perfect 7-0 ATS as an underdog! Best way to go here is an 8* on the Over, as the Texas D won't be able to stop Rudolph and Co, while Ehlinger's dual-threat ability will allow Texas to score as well. |
|||||||
10-20-17 | Kings v. Mavs OVER 202 | Top | 93-88 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: The Sacramento Kings and Dallas Mavericks were picked by many to finish near the bottom of the Western Conference for the 2017-18 season and both opened with losses on Wednesday. However, the Kings faced the much tougher opponent, falling 105-100 at home to the Rockets, covering as a home underdog. As for the Mavs, they wilted down the stretch in a 117-11 home loss to the Hawks. Tonight's game at American Airlines Center will feature two exciting 19-year-old PGs in the Mavericks' Dennis Smith Jr. and the Kings' De'Aaron Fox. Sacramento: Fox put forth an effort that provided an early glimpse of a potential franchise cornerstone, scoring 14 points while adding four rebounds and five assist, coming off the bench."Even though I've seen him for the last month or so, it's something to see," guard Garrett Temple told reporters regarding Fox. "When those lights go on, his ability to get into the paint and push the pace is something I haven't seen, besides John Wall. When he gets it going, picks his spots, when he gets that jumper down he is going to be hard to guard." Willie Cauley-Stein led the Kings with 21 points and 10 rebounds, while veteran PG George Hill had 16 points in his team debut. Dallas: Dennis Smith Jr. surpassed Nowitzki as the youngest player to start for the Mavericks and produced a double-double in his debut (16 points & 10 assists). Speaking of Dirk, he struggled in scoring only 10 points on 4-of-14 shooting. Good news came with Nerlens Noel scoring 16 points (on 6 of 6 FGs) and adding 11 rebounds. It's only one game but Dallas just could be concerned with Harrison Barnes, who led the team in scoring last year at 19.2 PPG. However, Barnes averaged nearly three points fewer after the All-Star break than he did before and opened this campaign by missing all six of his three-point attempts while shooting 3-of-13 overall! The pick: The Kings have won four of the last five meetings against Dallas, but the Mavs are 23-2 SU at home against Sacramento since 2003. That said, I don't much trust Dallas, as the Kings have covered 11 of the last 14 meetings, overall. The Kings covered vs. Houston without the services of Zach Randolph (oral surgery) but he's expected to be cleared to play in this pone. Meanwhile, expect Nowitzki to improve on his 4 of 14 shooting, as should Barnes and Matthews (combined 8 of 25). Make the Over a 10* play. |
|||||||
10-20-17 | Western Kentucky v. Old Dominion OVER 47 | Top | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 29 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: Western Kentucky opened 1-2 but enter Friday's game on a three-game winning streak (but just 1-2 ATS). The Hilltoppers go for their 4th straight win with a visit to the Old Dominion Monarchs, who are 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS. Both schools reside in the East Division of C-USA, with Western Ky sitting at 2-1 and ODU at 0-2. Western Kentucky: Jeff Brohm took over at Western Ky when Bobby Petrino left for Louisville and led the Hilltoppers to three straight bowl berths. Western Ky won all three of those bowl games, although Brohm took the Purdue job prior to last year's bowl win. Mike Sanford Jr. is a first-time head coach and his offense has averaged only 25.5 PPG (87th), after Brohm's three teams averaged 44.4, 44.3 and 45.5 PPG. However, the defense allows a modest 18.2 PPG (19th) on 340.5 YPG (34th). In comparison, Western Ky had allowed 25.9 and 24.6 PPG the last two seasons. Old Dominion: Monarch fans may already be looking ahead to the start of basketball season. The offense stinks, averaging 17.0 PPG (123rd) on 287.3 YPG (126th). The defense is no better, allowing 34.7 PPG (110th) on 436.8 YPG (103rd). ODU has a freshman QB in Steven Williams and RBs Ray Lawry (back healthy) and Jeremy Cox have underachieved. The pick: Western Kentucky is coming off a 45-16 victory versus the Charlotte 49ers on Saturday and while the Hilltoppers didn't run the ball well, QB Mike White completed 33 of 47 for 398 yards with five TDs. I realize this is not the Western Ky offense of the last three seasons but these two schools have met just three times, all coming these last three season. Western Ky has won all three, with the final scores being 59-24, 55-30 and 66-51. Doing the math, that's an average final of 95.0 PPG. Yes, make the Over an 8* play. |
|||||||
10-19-17 | Chiefs v. Raiders UNDER 47.5 | Top | 30-31 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: The Chiefs welcomed the Steelers to Arrowhead Stadium last Sunday as the NFL's lone unbeaten team at 5-0 (also 5-0 ATS). Kansas City entered last week's game averaging nearly 33 points through its first five victories but its offense was bottled up (held to 13 points on 251 yards) while its 27th-ranked run defense (130.7 YPG) was stampeded for 194 yards.The Raiders were a 'sexy' pick to strongly compete for the AFC title in 2017 and after opening with a 26-16 win at Tennessee and then routing the Jets 45-10 at home, expectations were "off the chart." However, as the Raiders get set to host one of their most-hated rivals (from the days of the original AFL), Oakland will be trying to snap a four-game losing streak. Kansas City: QB Alex Smith did not have his best game of 2017 in KC's 19-13 loss to the Steelers but he does enter this contest having completed 72.9 percent of his passes Oakland: QB Derek Carr got off to a great start but a fractured bone in his back has slowed him. He returned to the lineup after missing one game last Sunday but he had another mediocre game in the Raiders' 17-16 home loss to the Rams (171 YP / one TD / 2 INTs / 67.5 QB rating) and now has four interceptions in his past three contests, after tossing only six picks in the entire 2016 season. The pick: The Chiefs travel to Oakland Thursday night, looking to avoid back-to-back losses for the first time since October of 2015. What's more, the Chiefs have won nine straight road games. The Chiefs are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 meetings in Oakland. That said, I think we'll get an "all-out" effort from the Raiders in this one. However, in the team's four-game skid, Oakland has scored 10, 10, 17 and 16 points (that's just 13.3 PPG). That brings in this stat..."the under" is 18-6 in the last 24 meeting between these hated rivals. Make the under a 10* play in this one. |
|||||||
10-19-17 | Knicks v. Thunder OVER 215 | Top | 84-105 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: I think the NBA schedule was set before the Knicks traded Carmelo to OKC but is sure seems like a "set up" that the first game of the 2017-18 season for both New York and Oklahoma City is the first game of tonight's TNT doubleheader between the Knicks and Thunder at Chesapeake Energy Arena. The Thunder made arguably the biggest 'splashes' of the off-season by bringing in All-Stars Carmelo Anthony and Paul George to pair with reigning MVP Russell Westbrook. As for the Knicks, they received center Enes Kanter, swingman Doug McDermott and a draft pick in that Anthony deal, finally committed to a youth movement centered around 22-year-old Latvian Kristaps Porzingis, who is ready to lead the team after averaging 18.1 PPG last season in Anthony's shadow. New York has missed teh postseason the last four seasons, averaging about 29 wins per season! New York: "For myself, I wanted him to stay [in New York], and to play with him and learn from him and so on," Porzingis told reporters of Anthony. "But from the other side, I understand that he needed a new challenge in his career and he wants to win a championship one day, so I'm happy for him. He's in an environment where he might be able to do that soon." PG Derrick Rose is also gone from last season's squad and maybe the biggest "addition by subtraction" is that the Knicks no longer have Phil Jackson 'hanging over' the entire operation. 19-year-old Belgian rookie Frank Ntilikina has been impressing coaches and teammates in camp and will be counted on to step in for Rose.. "Usually for a young kid like that, you've got to spend a lot of time explaining plays, explaining NBA sets. You're not able to go to all the little tricks and all those things for a while," New York coach Jeff Hornacek told ESPN.com. "With Frank, you can talk about them already. So that's great." Joining Ntilikina in the backcourt is shooting guard Tim Hardaway Jr, who signed a $71 million deal with the team after averaging 14.5 PPG for the Atlanta Hawks last season. Oklahoma City: Westbrook became the first player since Oscar Robertson to average a triple-double over the course of the season (31.6 points, 10.7 rebounds, 10.4 assists), but the individual success still led to a first-round playoff exit. OKC wasted little time over the summer jumping into the Western Conference arms race and nabbed a pair of stars disgruntled with their former situations in George and Anthony. Now, the biggest question is, how many shots does each player need to stay happy? Westbrook averaged a league-high 24 FG attempts last season while Anthony hoisted 18.8 shots and George put up 18 for the Indiana Pacers. The pick: As the saying goes, "you can't make this up." Carmelo Anthony's first game for his new team will be against his most recent employer, the New York Knicks. Head coach Jeff Hornacek no longer has to worry about Phil Jackson's "triangle" and he let the Knicks run to their heart's content in the preseason. However, that also revealed the team's extreme defensive deficiencies. That style could be 'suicide' here in OKC. Make the Over a 10* play. |
|||||||
10-18-17 | Dodgers v. Cubs UNDER 9.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: The Los Angeles Dodgers are one win away from both ending the Chicago Cubs’ reign (at one title in a row) and getting to the World Series for the first time since 1988. The Cubs have scored first in every game of the series, but they haven’t crossed the plate again in any of them. The Cubs have just 15 hits (four for extra-bases, including three HRs) with 32 strikeouts and only four walks. They've scored four runs in three games while batting .160. LA's bullpen has been "unreachable," as the Dodgers’ relievers have not allowed a run in their last 16 2/3 innings and have given up only two hits in this matchup. Chris Taylor and Andre Ethier homered in LA's 6-1 win on Tuesday, giving the club eight HRs in the series and 11 in going 6-0 this postseason. The pitching matchup: Alex Wood (16-3 & 2.72 ERA in the regular season) takes the mound for LA and the Cubs will send Jake Arrieta (0-1 & 0.00 ERA in the postseason). Wood had a "career year," as the Dodgers went 18-7 in all his starts, giving him a moneyline mark of plus-$505. However, this marks his first-ever postseason start and it comes after four less-than-stellar relief outings in past postseasons. He had allowed eight runs (four earned) over 5 1/3 innings over his first three postseason appearances before working two scoreless frames out of the bullpen against the Cubs in last year’s NLCS. Wood is 2-2 with a 2.93 ERA in eight career regular-season games (five starts) versus Chicago. Arrieta is 4-3 with a 3.33 ERA in eight postseason starts over these last three seasons, including losing his only start in this postseason in Game 4 of the NLDS 5-0 against Washington, despite allowing only one unearned run and two hits over four innings. Arrieta is 1-3 with a 3.77 ERA in five career regular-season starts against Los Angeles. The pick: History favors the Dodgers in this one, as of the 36 teams in postseason history that have led 3-0 in a best-of-seven series, 29 have completed a sweep. However, the Cubs erased a three-games-to-one deficit in the 2016 World Series against the Indians to capture their first championship since 1908. But this year, they are 0-for-11 with runners in scoring position in the series. Make the Under a 10* play. |
|||||||
10-18-17 | Hornets v. Pistons OVER 203.5 | Top | 90-102 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: The Eastern Conference has been dominated by the Cavs since LBJ returned but the Celtics had hoped that they had closed the gap significantly by signing FA Gordon Hayward and then trading for Kyrie. However, Hayward could now be lost for the season with a fractured ankle in last night's opener at Cleveland. Toronto and Washington seem to be the "next in line" but after that, it seems wide open. Tonight, in the Pistons' brand-new Little Caesars Arena in downtown Detroit, the Pistons will host the Charlotte Hornets, as both non-postseason teams last spring look to 'join the party' here in the 2017-18 season. Charlotte: The Hornets' major move in the off-season was to bring in former All-NBA center Dwight Howard to man the middle. Howard is expected to anchor a defense-focused front line that also includes forwards Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Marvin Williams. Charlotte's team leader is All-Star PG Kemba Walker, who is coming off a 2016-17 campaign in which he averaged career highs of 23.2 PPG, 44.4 percent shooting from the floor and 39.9 percent shooting from three-point range. Walker will have to get used to a new starting backcourt mate with Nicolas Batum expected to miss six-to-eight weeks with an elbow injury. Jeremy Lamb will get first crack at the job while rookie Malik Monk comes off the bench. “[I’m] just trying to get ready," Lamb told the team's website. "An opportunity has come that I’m ready to take advantage of. Hopefully, Nic has a speedy recovery and we can get him back out there as soon as possible.” Detroit: The Pistons looked like playoff contenders at times in 2016-17 but were done in by injuries to PG Reggie Jackson and some growing pains from star center Andre Drummond. Jackson's season was a dud from the start, as he missed the first 21 games with left knee issues and ended up playing just 52 games and averaging 14.5 PPG on 41.9 percent shooting. He is owed $51.1 million over the next three seasons but did make it through training camp healthy and will not have any restrictions on his playing time. The pick: The Pistons were 37-45 last season and the Hornets, 36-46. However, the Pistons won three of the four meetings, including both played in Detroit. This marks the Pistons' first regular-season game at Little Caesars Arena, as the Pistons had called The Palace of Auburn Hills home since 1988. Look for Detroit to open with a bang at the team's new home. The Pistons scored 112, 115 and 114 points in last year's three wins over the Hornets and this over/under is too low. Make the Over an 8* play. |
|||||||
10-17-17 | Canucks v. Senators UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
The set: The 3-0-2 Ottawa Senators return home to begin a five-game homestand against the 1-2-1 Vancouver Canucks on Tuesday night. The Sens are back home, where they opened the new season by dropping a pair of shootout losses in their first two home games. However, Ottawa just completed the first three-game sweep through Western Canada in franchise history, winning at Vancouver, Calgary and Edmonton. The Senators are certainly riding high but the same can't be said of the Canucks, who have dropped three in a row (all at home), since winning their season-opener 3-2 over Edmonton on Oct. 7 (also at home). Vancouver: The Canucks' slide began against these Senators back on Oct. 10, losing a 3-2 shootout to Ottawa. Now, Vancouver opens a five-game road trip playing at the Canadian Tire Centre. A lack of offense has been the main culprit for the Canucks, who have been limited to two goals each in each of their three losses. The Canucks ranked 29th in offense in 2016-17 and featured the league's second-worst power play, with those struggles carrying over into this season. Vancouver is averaging 2.25 GPG (22nd) and ranks 25th on the power play. "You're not going to win a lot of games if that happens," acknowledged veteran forward Daniel Sedin. "You have to capitalize." Ottawa: Not only are the Senators riding high after completing a 3-0 road trip with 6-0 and 6-1 wins the last two games but as they return home to begin a five-game homestand, head coach Guy Boucher said at Monday's practice that star defenseman Erik Karlsson is "100 percent" ready and "he will play tomorrow." What better way for a team to begin a homestand than to get its best player back on the ice? The pick: The Senators were not only able to survive but also thrive in Karlsson's absence. A big part of the team's success can be attributed to special teams play. After going 0-for-16 on the power play in their first three games, the Senators scored a total of five goals with a man-advantage in Calgary and Edmonton. Ottawa is also a perfect 15-for-15 this season on the penalty kill. That matches up well against struggling Vancouver, which has scored just two goals on 23 power-play chances. A positive for the Canucks has been a penalty-killing unit that has operated at an 87.5 percent efficiency, tied for sixth best in the league. This all points to making the Under a 10* play. |
|||||||
10-16-17 | Lightning v. Red Wings UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: The Tampa Bay lightning will travel to Detroit to face the Red Wings in Monday' lone NHL contest. Both teams are off to 4-1-0 starts but the clear standout in this opening stretch has been Tampa Bay's Nikita Kuchero, who has become the sixth player in the last 17 years and first since 2012, to score in each of his team’s first five games of the season (he netted the game-winner Saturday, as Tampa Bay beat St. Louis 3-2). Detroit has made it clear that it is not the same team that missed the playoffs for the first time in 26 seasons in 2016-17, sprinting to a 4-1-0 start. The Red Wings and Lightning aren't accustomed to what befell them last season. As noted, Detroit missed the playoffs for the first time since the 1989-90 season, while Tampa Bay missed the playoffs by one point, after reaching the Stanley Cup final in 2015 and the Eastern Conference final in 2016.
|
|||||||
10-15-17 | Islanders v. Kings OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: The LA Kings beat the Sabres 4-2 on Saturday and will continue their four-game homestand on Sunday against the New York Islanders. The Kings scored three third-period goals last night, improving to 3-0-1 on the season and 1-0-1 on the homestand. The Islanders won 3-1 at San Jose on Saturday to even its mark at 1-1-0 on its four-game road trip and sit 2-2-1 on the season. NY Islanders: The Isles will attempt to end this West Coast road trip on a winning note when they face the Kings at Staples Center on Sunday, as they conclude their road swing against a more familiar foe, the New York Rangers at Madison Square Garden on Thursday. New York is in the midst of a challenging schedule with five of its first seven games away from Brooklyn's Barclay Center and are in a stretch of 13 of 15 games against Western Conference opponents. In last night's win, the Islanders went 0-3 on the power play and remain one of just two teams (Anaheim joins them) without a power-play goal this season. Los Angeles: The team's fast start is something different, as this marks the first time since 1995-96 that the Kings have registered points in each of their first four games. Los Angeles has taken advantage of a friendly schedule that keeps them in California until its Oct. 21 matchup at Columbus. The Kings will play the second of eight consecutive games against the Eastern Conference, tonight. LA had struggled on the power play until last night, when the Kings scored three power-play goals (had opened the season starting the season on an 0-for-16 run!). The pick: Both teams are playing the back end of consecutive games and I expect a few "extra" pucks to find their way into the back of the net. Male the Over a 10* play. |
|||||||
10-15-17 | Giants v. Broncos UNDER 40 | Top | 23-10 | Win | 100 | 128 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: The NY Giants are playing in prime time for the third time in six weeks, when they welcome the Broncos to MetLife Stadium on NBC's Sunday night football. The Giants, who went 11-5 last season, have opened 0-5 and are practically guaranteed to miss the postseason for the fifth time in six years since the team won the Super Bowl at the end of the 2011 season. The Broncos are off a bye week and check in at 3-1, with all three wins coming at home (2-0-1 ATS). Denver: The Broncos are hardly a dominant team, losing 26-16 at Buffalo in Week 3 and needing a last-second interception to beat Oakland prior to the bye. However, Denver played its beat game of the season here at home in Week 2, dominating the Cowboys 42-17. QB Trevor Siemian is completing 62.7% with seven TDs and four INTs (89.0 QB rating). C.J. Anderson has run for 330 yard, leading a running game averaging 143.0 YPG (3rd). There is nothing wrong with the Broncos' defense, which is allowing a league-low 260.8 YPG, including ranking No. 1 against the run (50.8 YPG). Denver is allowing 18.5 PPG to rank 7th. NY Giants: Eli Manning receives most of the 'heat' but the Giants have virtually no running game, averaging 77.8 YPG (30th). RB Paul Perkins was unable to practice Wednesday, leaving Orleans Darkwa and rookie Wayne Gallman to lead a backfield that has done little. Eli is completing 67.8% but with eight TDs and five INTs (89.1 QB rating). Week 5 was not good to him, as he lost his three top WRs to ankle injuries, including Odell Beckham Jr, possibly for the year. Manning himself was examined for neck issues after the game. The pick: Eli's receiving corps is devastated and he has no running game, as he looks to take on an outstanding Denver defense, coming off a bye week. As for Denver's offense, excluding the team's 42-point outburst against Dallas, Denver is averaging 18.7 PPG. This game has "under, written all over it!" Make the Under an 8* play. |
|||||||
10-15-17 | Cubs v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
The pitching matchup: Jon Lester (13-8 & 4.33 ERA) takes the ball for Chicago and Rich Hill (12-8 & 3.32 ERA) gets the nod for Los Angeles. The Cubs beat the Dodgers in last yera's NLDS (4-2) and Lester was outstanding in one start and one relief appearance, allowing two runs on three hits over 9 2/3 innings (1.38 ERA). He is the active leader in postseason innings pitched with 143 1/3 and owns a 9-7 record and 2.57 ERA in 24 playoff appearances (20 starts). Lester is 3-3 with a 3.29 ERA in nine starts against the Dodgers (teams are 5-4). Hill was drafted by the Cubs and went 18-17 with a 4.37 ERA over his first four major-league seasons with the club from 2005-08. Hill started Game 2 of the NLDS against Arizona, allowing two runs on three hits over four innings of a no-decision. Hill limited the Cubs to two hits over six scoreless innings of a win in Game 3 of last year’s NLCS and was expected to start Game 7, if necessary, but the Cubs closed out the Dodgers in Game 6. The pick: Hill was ready and waiting to start a winner-take-all game in the NLCS against the Chicago Cubs last year, but Clayton Kershaw was upended in Game 6 and the Cubs advanced to the World Series. He gets a chance here to make up for that missed opportunity and help LA take a 2-0 lead in this year's NLDS. However, let's note that Hill owns a 4.50 ERA in five career postseason starts. After going all-in to close out the Nats in the NLDS and then having to face Clayton Kershaw in Game 1 of the NLCS just one day later, the Cubs can hardly be surprised that they are down 0-1. However, going down 0-2, will make a comeback pretty hard against the team which won a MLB-best 104 games in 2017. I expect Hill to pitch well again (like last year) against his original team and as for Lester, the Cubs should have confidence in a pitcher who owns a 2.57 ERA in 24 playoff appearances (20 starts) . Make the Under a 10* play |
|||||||
10-15-17 | Patriots v. Jets OVER 47.5 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 121 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: It's a Week 6 game featuring AFC East rivals at MetLife Stadium this Sunday, as the New England Patriots visit the New York Jets. Who could have ever predicted in Week 1 that both teams would be 3-2 heading into this contest, meaning the winner will take the early AFC East lead. this contest. After all, the Pats are defending Super Bowl champs and the Jets, after a summer 'fire sale,' seemed destined to be one of a handful of teams that woiuld be in teh mix for teh NFL 2018 Daraft's No. 1 overall pick. However, the Pats were upended in the 2017 season-opener at home by the Chiefs and need to eke out an 'ugly' 189-14 win in Week 5 at Tampa Bay just to reach 3-2. Meanwhile, after opening 0-2, the Jets have gone 3-0 SU & ATS the last three weeks, with the team's defense holding those three opponents to just 40 combined points (13.3 PPG). New England: There's nothing wrong with Tom Brady, as he's completing 68.2% with 11 TDs and just one interception, giving him a QB rating of 112.0. The Pats rank first in passing (320.4 YPG), the main reason New England ranks first overall in total yards (419.4 YPG), while checking in at third in scoring at 29.6 PPG. Brady's accomplished all this with injuries to some of his key receivers plus playing behind an OL that's allowed him to be sacked 16 times. Brady has also has to make up for a defense, which has been unable to stop anyone, particularly through the air, allowing an NFL-worst 323.4 YPG (12 TDs allowed with just three INTs for a an opposing QB rating of 109.2). The Pats allow 28.4 PPG to rank 30th. NY Jets: There was talk the Jets would threaten the Browns and that the loser of their Week 5 meeting could go 0-16, after two weeks. However, after losing 45-10 in Oakland in Week 2, the Jets have managed to win and cover three straight. Granted, their 'victims' have been the Dolphins, Jags and Browns (Cleveland will make a strong run at 0-16!) but still, allowing just 13.3 PPG in their winning streak is impressive. Josh McCown, a journeyman who toiled for the Browns last season, has completed 63 of 84 passes in the winning streak (that's 75.0%), twice recording QB ratings of better than 100.0. The Jets don't have a big-name RB but still have maneged to average 111.4 YPG to rank 13th. The pick: The Pats will take the field looking for their 11th win in 13 regular-season meetings against Jets. OK, Brady is arguably the best QB in NFL history, winning five Super Bowls while playing for only the New England Patriots since he was drafted in the sixth round. He has a 186-54 career regular-season record and 25-9 mark in the playoffs. Meanwhile, McCown has been on 10 different NFL rosters since he was drafted in the third round in 2002. His career record as a starter is 21-44 career record and he has never sniffed the playoffs. No contest, right? Well, New England has allowed at least 33 points in three of five games this year and even in last weeks' 19-14 win, Winston threw for 334 yards against the Pats' defense-less secondary, plus needed Buc PK Nick Folk to miss three FGs to avoid another loss. McCown will do damage to New England's secondary, just like every QB has so far this season. However, Brady will 'light up' the Jets' D, as well. Make the Over an 8* play. |
|||||||
10-14-17 | Oregon v. Stanford OVER 61.5 | Top | 7-49 | Loss | -105 | 121 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: The Stanford Cardinal began the 2017 season ranked 14th in the AP's preseason poll but dropped out after back-to-back road losses at USC (42-24) and San Diego State (20-17). However, the Cardinal eked out a 20-17 win at Utah (then ranked 20th) last Saturday, giving them a third straight win. Stanford is back in the top-25 (at No. 23) and will welcome the 4-2 Oregon Ducks to Stanford Stadium on Saturday night. Both teams are 4-2 but while Stanford is 3-1 in Pac 12 play, Oregon is just 1-2. Oregon: The Ducks opened the season 3-0 but have lost two of three conference games, after falling 33-10 at home last Saturday to Washington State (Cougars are currently ranked 8th). New head coach Willie Taggart lost starting QB Sean Hebert (9 TDs and 2 INTs, while completing 68.3 %) early on in Oregon's 45-24 home win over Cal and on Sep. 30. Braxton Burmeister has stepped in to complete 57.1 percent of his passes for 149 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Burmeister enters this game with just 28 career pass attempts under his belt. The running game averages a healthy 239.3 YPG (20th) and the Ducks enter this contest averaging 43.0 PPG (11th). The defense has allowed just 338.3 YPG (29th) but allows 27.2 PPG, to rank 76th. Stanford: There's a saying that goes when a team has two starting QBs, it often has none. Keller Chryst and K.J. Costello have combined for seven touchdown passes and two interceptions this season but Stanford averages only 188.3 YPG through the air (93rd). However, Stanford just may have the nation's best RB in Bryce Love, who leads the way with 1,240 yards (10.5 YPC) and nine TDs. As a team, Stanford ranks 14th in rushing yards at 260.0 YPG. The D allows 434.8 YPG (102nd) but somehow has held opponents to a modest 24.5 PPG (55th). The pick: Burmeister was a highly-touted QB coming in and should be much better here, in his second start. That Stanford defense has given up way too many yards to keep opponents under 25 points. Let's remember that Oregon was the nation's highest-scoring team heading into last Saturday's home game against Washington State but true freshman Burmeister struggled in his first start, with Oregon getting hammered 33-10 by the Cougars 33-10. The usually supportive crowd at Autzen Stadium booed the Ducks, so being on the road this weekend may be a blessing. Oregon's rush D has been outstanding so far but that D hasn't seen the likes of Stanford's Love. These teams have scored 74 and 78 points in meetings the last two seasons and this over/number comes in way too low. Make the Over a 10* play. |
|||||||
10-14-17 | Predators v. Blackhawks OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: The Chicago Blackhawks won Stanley Cup titles in 2010, 2013 and 2015 and after massing a Western Conference-leading 109 points last season, were expected to make a strong run at the fourth title since 2010. However, Chicago's postseason hopes were extinguished in the first round as the Blackhawks were handed a stunning four-game sweep by the eighth-seeded Nashville Predators. Chicago (3-1-1) suffered its first regulation loss of the news season at the hands of Minnesota on Thursday (5-2) and will welcome the 2-2-0 Predators to the United Center for the first time since losing to them in last year's playoffs. Nashville: The Predators opened the season with a pair of losses but have rebounded to win their last two (6-5 and 4-1) behind three goals and five assists from Filip Forsberg. Nashville features one of the top defenses in the league but could be shorthanded against Chicago. Captain Roman Josi sat out practice Friday due to a lower-body injury that has sidelined him for the past two games and Yannick Weber had to leave Thursday's loss after taking a shoulder to the head and is listed as day-to-day. Pekka Rinne started in net for both Predators' victories this week and is expected to earn the nod again vs. Chicago. Rinne is 2-1-0 with a 3.09 goals-against average and a .902 save percentage this season. Chicago: Nick Schmaltz combined with linemates Patrick Kane and Ryan Hartman for 10 points in a 10-1 romp over Pittsburgh back on Oct. 6, before he suffered an upper-body injury in the next game versus Columbus. Schmaltz has missed the past three games but is expected to rejoin the lineup for Saturday's matchup. "He has a lot of speed and it makes the defense second-guess. ... It gives the guy with the puck more time with the puck. He's definitely a key part to our success," said Hartman. The Blackhawks lead the league with 23 goals. The pick: There we be no lack of motivation for Chicago in this one (early-season game or not) and in particular, Chicago needs to re-establish its ability to score against Nashville (and Rinne). After all, in last year's 4-0 sweep at the hands of the Predators, Chicago managed just three goals and was shut out in both home games! The Preds come in 0-2-0 on the road so far, having allowed four goals in each loss. The Over is a 10* play in this one. |
|||||||
10-14-17 | Yankees v. Astros OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: Dallas Keuchel had dominated the Yankees in the recent past and it was no different in Game 1 of the ALCS, as the lefty pitched seven scoreless innings, allowing three hits while striking out 10. However, New York's Masahiro Tanaka, who was just 4-7 with a 6.48 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over 15 road starts in 2017 and 0-2 with a 10.38 ERA over four career regular season starts against Houston, didn't shy away from the big moment, either He gave the Yanks six innings, allowing just two runs on four hits. However, Houston was able to eke out a 2-1 win. Game 2 of the series is set for 4:05 ET, today. The pitching matchup: Game 1 was a pitchers' duel and here in Game 2, the Yankees send out their ace, Luis Severino to face Houston's "big-time trade deadline addition," Justin Verlander. Severino was 14-6 (2.98 ERA) for the Yankees in 2017, after he went 3-8 overall with a 5.83 ERA over 22 appearances in 2016, including 11 starts (Yanks were 2-9). Talk about a turnaround! He make the 2017 All Star game while recording career bests in wins (14), WHIP (1.04), and strikeouts, finishing fourth-best among AL pitchers with 230 (allowed only 51 walks). Severino could only get one out in the wild card game against Minnesota (allowed three runs on two HRs) but he allowed three runs on four hits (again, two HRs) but struck out nine Indians over seven innings in his 7-3 Game 4 victory, which sent the series back to Cleveland for a Game 5 (I think you know how that turned out). Verlander was 15-8 with a 3.36 ERA for Detroit and Houston in 2017 but his 15 wins don't tell the whole story. The former MVP and Cy Young winner was 5-0 with a 1.06 ERA in five starts with the Astros and in the postseason (one start and one relief stint, the ONLY one of his career), has picked up two wins (3.12 ERA). He has posted a 3.55 ERA in five career starts in the ALCS, including an eight-inning outing in which he allowed one run and struck out 10 in his last such outing against the Red Sox in 2013. Verlander has seen plenty of the Yankees in his career, going 8-7 with a 3.82 ERA over 22 career starts (team is 10-12). The pick: Yes, we have two top-of-the-rotation starters in this one but Severino is still a question mark. He was by most metrics the third-best pitcher in the AL this season but he's just 23 years old and comes with a bit of volatility. Severino struggled in both of his starts against the Astros this season, allowing three runs on six hits and three walks over 2 1/3 innings on May 14 at Yankee Stadium, before surrendering six runs on nine hits and one walk with seven strikeouts over 5 1/3 innings in Houston on July 2. That figures to a 10.59 ERA. Remember, he's facing a Houston team which led MLB in scoring at 5.53 RPG, in team BA at .282 and in OPS at .823 while ranking second in HRs with 238 (Severino has allowed four HRs in seven-plus postseason innings). As for the Yanks, they were only team to hit more HRs (241) than Houston, which could give Verlander pause. I still don't understand manager Hinch's decision to use Verlander in relief in a Game 4 situation, with his team leading two games to one. Again, Verlander had NEVER made a relief appearance in his career. Is that enough to :"throw him off?" I can't be sure (how could anyone be?) but the bet says this will not a replay of Game 1's pitchers' duel. Make the Over a 10* play. |
|||||||
10-14-17 | Oklahoma v. Texas OVER 62.5 | Top | 29-24 | Loss | -110 | 113 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: The Oklahoma Sooners and the Texas Longhorns will meet Saturday at the Cotton Bowl on ESPN for the latest edition of the Red River Rivalry. The Sooners will 'limp in' off yet another shocking early-to-mid-season loss. "Big Game Bob" may be gone, but Oklahoma's penchant for losing games that it should win, is still "alive and well." Oklahoma climbed as high as No. 2 in the rankings after beating Ohio State on the road Sep. 9, but the Sooners have struggled in three games since, winning the first two (1-1 ATS) before last week's 'ugly' 38-31 loss to Iowa State in Norman, where Oklahoma closed as a 31-point favorite. It marks the SEVENTH consecutive season in which the Sooners have lost as a double-digit favorite. Tom Herman became a star in two years at Houston and was a 'natural' for the Texas job. The Longhorns opened the season ranked in the AP's preseason poll but promptly lost at home 51-41 to Maryland, as an 18-point favorite. However, the Longhorns have rebounded well, going 3-1 since, with their only loss being a 27-24 double-OT defeat at USC. Texas holds a 61-45-5 lead in the series, which began in 1900 and has been played at the Texas State Fair annually since 1929. Herman and Oklahoma's Lincoln Riley will be making their head coaching debuts in the Red River Showdown, marking the first time since 1947, when Blair Cherry's Longhorns beat Bud Wilkinson's Sooners, 34-14, that the rivalry has featured new coaches on both sidelines. Oklahoma: QB Baker Mayfield completed 70.9% last season with 40 TDs and eight INTs. He's been just as good so far in 2017 (better?), completing 74.6% with 15 TDs and not a single INT in 134 pass attempts. Oklahoma ranks fifth in passing yards (3984.4 per) and secnd in total offense (587.0 YPG), while scoring 44.6 PPG (6th). The defense has been adequate, allowing 23.2 PPG (46th) on 356.0 YPG (44th). However, that's after allowing an average of 486 yards and 39.5 points over its last two games against Baylor and Iowa State? For Lincoln Riley (Stoops' replacement), this game will be HUGE. "I think in the past after a tough loss -- we haven't had many around here -- but when we've had them, we've been able to respond regardless of who we've played," Riley said. "I would hope that we have enough pride -- and I feel we do have enough pride as a team -- that we'd be motivated to go play Norman Junior High this week." Texas: It won't be Norman Junior High this week for Riley and Oklahoma but rather Texas. You can assured that Tom Herman knows what this game means. What happens here, could set the tone for the remainder of the Longhorns' season. Herman has been coy about who his starting QB will be after sophomore starter Shane Buechele missed the Kansas State victory with a sprained ankle, with freshman Sam Ehlinger passing for 380 yards and two TDs, while also rushing for 107 more Saturday. Buechele is a good QB but many think Ehlinger has proven to be much more than valuable backup. The Texas defense has "picked itself up" after that embarrassing opening 51-41 loss to Maryland, allowing just 17.0 PPG the last four games (down to 23.8 PPG on the season). The pick: Oklahoma lost another game as a double-digit favorite, so what else is new? However, here's a stat one can't ignore. The Sooners haven't lost back-to-back regular-season games since 1999, Bob Stoops' first season in Norman (that's a long time!). Oklahoma has scored at least 30 points in a school-record 15 consecutive games and go back and check out Mayfield's numbers this season (see above). The Sooners will be tough to keep off the scoreboard in this one but I also believe the Longhorns offense will "come to play." Make the Over an 8* play. |
|||||||
10-12-17 | Cubs v. Nationals OVER 7.5 | Top | 9-8 | Win | 100 | 18 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: The Nationals have yet to reach the NLCS, getting eliminated in the NLDS in each of their previous three postseason appearances (2012, 2014 and 2016) since moving to Washington, twice losing in a deciding Game 5 (2012 & 2016). Here again in 2017, with a little help from the weather, the Washington Nationals have forced a winner-take-all matchup Game 5 against the defending champion Chicago Cubs. Game 4 was scheduled for Tuesday with Chicago owning a 2-1 lead but rain forced the game to be rescheduled until Wednesday. That gave the Nats the option of replacing Game 4 starter Tanner Roark, with Stephen Strasburg. Starsburg initially said he was "under the weather," leaving the Nats to say Roark would go in the rescheduled game but Starsburg "got better" or ":had a change of heart," and took the mound. He was brilliant, allowing just three hits over seven scoreless innings to lead the Washington to a 5-0 win over the Cubs (Taylor's grand slam in the 8th, 'shut the door!'). Strasburg had 12 Ks and became just the third pitcher ever to register double-digit strikeouts twice is a single playoff series, joining Hall of Famers Bob Gibson and Sandy Koufax. Game 5 is now set for 8:05 ET tonight in Washington. The pitching matchup: Kyle Hendricks takes the mound for Chicago (was the Cubs' Game 1 starter) and Dusty Baker has decided to go with Gio Gonzalez, Washington's Game 2 starter (on full rest, after the rain out). Hendricks out-dueled Strasburg in Game 1, allowing two hits and three walks while registering six strikeouts over seven scoreless innings, as the Cubs won 3-0. This marks the third straight start in a series clincher for the 27-year-old Hendricks. He started Game 6 of last year’s NLCS against the Dodgers and Game 7 of the World Series versus Cleveland (Cubs won both times). He is 2-1 with a 1.98 ERA in eight postseason starts. Baker has passed on Roark in this Game 5, who has not started since Sep. 27 and gave up eight runs in 5 2/3 innings over his last two regular-season appearances (one start). Gonzalez allowed three runs on three hits over five innings in Game 2 (also six Ks and two walks), as the Nationals got him off the hook with a five-run 8th-inning rally. The pick: Gonzalez was a career-best 21-8 (2.89 ERA) for the Nats back in 2012 but over the next four seasons, would go just 43-37. His 4.57 ERA in 2016 was his highest since his first full season in the majors (2009 with the A's). However, he had an excellent bounce-back season in 2017, going 15-9 with a 2.96 ERA. Then again, he hasn't pitched more than five innings over his last five starts, including his Game 2 start in this series. In that span, he's allowed 19 ERs on 25 hits over 26 1/3 innings for a 6.49 ERA. It's hard to trust the Nats in any deciding game situation and Gonzalez doesn't exactly come in "on a roll." The feeling here is that these two very talented lineups have underachieved all series. In the case of the Nats, they'vs scored nine of their 12 runs in the series in the eighth inning, on a a two-run HR, a three-run HR and a grand slam. As for the Cubs, they've only scored eight runs in the series's four games, somehow managing to extend it to five games. The bet here says, both lineups 'catch fire' in Game 5. Make the Over a 10* play. |
|||||||
10-12-17 | Texas State v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 58 | Top | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 69 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: The Sun Belt Conference takes 'center stage' for a second straight night, as the Texas State Bobcats go on the road to face the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns in a Thursday night matchup on ESPNU (South Alabama played at Troy Wednesday night on ESPN2). Texas State is 1-5 (0-2 in SBC play) and ULL is 2-3 (1-1 in SBC play). Texas State is off 3-9 and 2-10 season, so a 1-5 start is no surprise. ULL went 6-6 in the 2016 regular season, then lost 28-21 in the New Orleans Bowl. BTW, ULL has played in the New Orleans Bowl five times since 2011, winning four in a row before last year's loss (ULL went 4-8 in 2015). Texas State: The Bobcats won their 2017 opener 20-11 over Houston Baptist but have lost five in a row since, failing to cover the last three. Texas State lost 45-27 to visiting UL-Monroe in its last game, allowing 589 overall yards, including 433 through the air. The Bobcats scored 20 points in the first quarter but just seven points the rest of the way. The team's offense has been awful, scoring only 14.5 PPG (125th) on 300.7 YPG (124th). The defense has collapsed the last three games, allowing 44, 45 and 45 points. It comes in allowing 33.7 PPG on the season (106th), on 410.8 YPG (87th). Louisiana-Lafayette: The Ragin’ Cajuns won 21-16 as a six point road underdog last Saturday at Idaho, the team's first ATS win of the season. ULL averages 37.0 PPG (29th) on 418.2 YPG (60th) but the team's defense is a mess, allowing 46.2 PPG (129th) on 506.6 YPG (125th). These defense numbers are this bad despite the fact that ULL held Idaho to just 16 points on 279 yards last Saturday. The pick: As I continue point out, I've consistently won in 2017 by going under high totals. That's not exactly the case here but like with Idaho, the Texas State offense (averaging only 14.5 PPG) is one ULL's defense can handle. I'm making the Under a 10* play. |
|||||||
10-11-17 | Islanders v. Ducks OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: The Anaheim Ducks finished with a Western Conference-best 29-8-4 record at home last season. However, the Ducks have dropped two straight at Honda Center, including a 2-0 loss to Calgary on Monday, which had lost an NHL-record 25 consecutive games in Anaheim. The 1-1-1 Ducks will now conclude a season-opening four-game homestand against the 1-1-1 New York Islanders, who come in having won the last four meetings between the two clubs. The Islanders managed to snag a point in a shootout loss to St. Louis on Monday, forging a tie with a pair of goals in the final seven minutes of regulation. New York has won its last three visits to the Honda Center, including a 14-round shootout in November that set a record for the longest in franchise history. NY Islanders: Captain John Tavares scored twice versus Buffalo on Saturday and is one goal shy of tying Bob Bourne (538) for seventh place on the team's all-time list. He can be a free agent after this season but GM Garth Snow told the media that he felt "excellent" about the current state of negotiations. “I’ve said it all along, we drafted John at 18, and we think the world of him,” Snow said, per the New York Post. “We want him to retire an Islander. He’s a first-class person and a first-class player.” The team heads west feeling much better about goalie Thomas Greiss, who was pulled from a season-opening loss to the Columbus Blue Jackets but finished with 33 saves against the Blues in Monday's 3-2 shootout loss. However, Halak is expected to be in net, tonight Anaheim: The Ducks' lineup has been riddled by injuries but center Ryan Getzlaf made his season debut in Monday's 2-0 loss to Calgary. He was given 22 minutes, 14 seconds of ice time, giving him a chance to play his way back into shape. However, Getzlaf's return was tempered by another injury, this one to forward Ondrej Kase (upper body). The pick: The Ducks were given the luxury of opening the new season with four straight home games and six out of seven at The Pond," overall. The team hasn't taken advantage of that so far but considering the team's 29-8-4 record at home last season, doesn't that figure to change? I expect Anaheim to play well but Gibson has not been sharp so far in goal (3.05 GAA), so the play is an 8* on the Over. |
|||||||
10-09-17 | Capitals v. Lightning UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: The Caps and their star, captain Alex Ovechkin, have been best-known for great regular seasons followed by early playoff exits. That was the case again last season but the Caps, particularly Ovechkin, have sure stormed out of the gate with purpose, so far. Washington has opened with 5-4 and 6-1 wins, with Ovechkin. possibly responding o his lowest-scoring full season since 2010-11, followed up a hat trick in the season opener with four more goals in Saturday's win. The Lightning won Friday night at home 5-3 over the Panthers in their season-opener but then lost the next night in Miami, 5-4. Washington: Evgeny Kuznetsov has been big part of Ovechkin's scoring barrage with seven assists. Fellow linemate Jakub Vrana has set up three goals. Washington has just one power play goal (out of 10) but has been perfect on the penalty kill, keeping opponents scoreless on nine attempts with the man advantage. Capitals goalie Braden Holtby has a 2.40 goals-against average and is averaging 33 saves per game in opening 2-0.. Tampa Bay: The Lightning have nine goal in two games, as Brayden Point is off to a fast start for Tampa Bay after a strong finish to the 2016-17 season. He has five points, while captain Steven Stamkos has contributed three assists in his return from knee surgery. Tampa Bay is carrying eight defensemen to open the season, which means two are inactive each night. So far, the combos haven't worked well, as the Lightning have allowed 84 shots on net. The team's best player in the first two games has been Andrei Vasilevskiy, who turned aside 76 of the 84 shots he faced and gave his struggling team a chance to win both contests. The pick: Ovechkin is a terrific player but he can't (won't) keep up his current pace. The two teams have played two games each with the four finals averaging 8.25 GPG. That won't continue either, as Holtby is a "big-time" goalie and as noted earlier, Vasilevskiy has played extremely well despite little help from his blue-liners. Make the Under a 10* play. |
|||||||
10-09-17 | Astros v. Red Sox UNDER 10.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 39 m | Show |
|
|||||||
10-08-17 | Chiefs v. Texans UNDER 47 | Top | 42-34 | Loss | -110 | 142 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: Through the season's first four weeks, the Kansas City Chiefs stand alone as the NFL's lone unbeaten team at 4-0. The Chiefs are also a perfect 4-0 ATS after their 'miracle' finish last Monday night against the Redskins. The Chiefs are back on in primetime again in Week 5, this time in Houston against the 2-2 Texans for a SNF game at NRG Stadium on NBC. Houston's 19-12 win last season over KC ended a three-game losing streak in the series, including a 33-0 playoff rout in January 2016. Kansas City: QB Alex Smith has played superbly for the Chiefs, who have scored at least 21 second-half points in three of their four victories. He's been stuck with the label of "game manager" for years but has eight TD passes without an interceptions (121 attempts) plus leads the NFL in both QB rating (124.2) and completing percentage (76.0%). Nothing "game-manager-like" in those numbers! Smith is not alone in being a major contributor to KC's offense in 2017. Rookie RB Kareem Hunt (Toledo) has rushed for more than 100 yards three times and has 502 yards on the season, averaging 7.4 YPC with four TDs. Throw in 13 catches with two more TDs and he's been the league's best back 25 percent of the way through NFL 2017. TE Travis Kelce and WR Tyreek Hill each have a team-high 21 catches, with two TD receptions apiece. Kansas City's offense ranks 2nd in both points scored (30.5 per) and total yards (405,2 per). The defense allows 359.5 YPG to rank 26th but only allows 19.2 PPG, which ranks 10th. Houston: Bill O'Brien may never live down his decision to open the season with Tom Savage at QB over Deshaun Watson but now that he's "seen the light," the Texans are only looking forward. The Texans have been a different team since handing the keys of the offense to Watson, who accounted for five TDs in last week's 57-14 demolition of visiting Tennessee. Watson guided Clemson to back-to-back national championship showdowns with Alabama, shredding the Tide's defense in both games, while claiming the title in last January's rematch. Watson threw for 283 yards and four TDs plus ran for another score last Sunday, earning AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors. DeAndre Hopkins is Watson's favorite target with 31 receptions but fellow WR Will Fuller returned from injury to make a splashy debut against the Titans with a pair of TDs among his four catches. RB Lamar Miller scored his first two TDs of the season last week, piling up 131 yards from scrimmage, while Watson's running ability and rookie RB D'Onta Foreman provide solid complements (Texans average 139.8 YPG rushing to rank fifth). Houston's defense led the NFL in total yards allowed in 2016 (301.3 YPG) and while the Texans are allowing fewer yards in 2017 (291.5 YPG), that figure ranks only fifth-best. The pick: Yes, the Smith and Hunt duo plus the play of Deshaun Watson make this look like an attractive over play. However, these are two outstanding defensive teams (KC's YPG stats so far, not withstanding), so the play here is an 8* on the Under. |
|||||||
10-08-17 | Canadiens v. Rangers OVER 5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -136 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are coming off lopsided losses on Saturday, as Montreal lost 6-1 in Washington and New York lost 8-5 in Toronto. The 1-1 Canadiens conclude their season-opening three-game road trip against the New York Rangers here in Madison Square Garden, with the 0-2 Rangers still looking for their first win of the 2017-18 season (lost 4-2 at home Thursday night to Colorado, by far the NHL's worst team last season).
Montreal: Carey Price lasted only 20 minutes last night in Washington, as he surrendered four goals on 14 shots, including three to Alex Ovechkin who finished with four (back-to-back hat tricks to open the season), in Montreal's 6-1 loss. The Canadiens will need to regroup quickly, as Montreal plays six of its first eight games on the road."We had some breakdowns," Canadiens head coach Claude Julien told the Montreal Gazette. "When you spot a team three goals early like that, it's pretty hard to come back in this league. They had a good start and we weren't ready for that. So that's on us. Once that game is 4-0, it's pretty hard the rest of the way. But it was important for us to try and find our game. I thought we were much better in the second period, although the damage was done."
|
|||||||
10-08-17 | Bills v. Bengals OVER 38.5 | Top | 16-20 | Loss | -110 | 134 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: The Buffalo Bills last made the playoffs back in 1999, the longest postseason drought of any NFL team. However, they visit Cincinnati at Paul Brown Stadium on Sunday with a surprising 3-1 record. The Bengals opened 0-3 in 2017 but were able to win their first game of the season last Sunday 31-7, although it came over the hapless (helpless?) Browns. Buffalo: New head coach Sean McDermott is riding high but is also savvy enough not to take the 1-3 Bengals lightly."This is a team that has been in the playoffs the last 'X' amount of years," McDermott told reporters. ”Anyone who looks at a record at this point in the season is making a huge mistake. This is a good football team." Buffalo's Week 3 home win over Denver was nice but its 23-17 in Atlanta over the previously unbeaten Falcons got everyone's attention. The Bills led the NFL in rushing last year at 164.4 YPG but this year Buffalo has struggled, averaging only 112.8 YPG (26th). McCoy had 110 yards in Week 1 but over the last three games, which included impressive wins over the Broncos and Falcons, he has only 106 yards, while averaging just 2.3 YPC! I'm not sure what to make of QB Tyrod Taylor but the bottom line is, he leads an offense averaging just 18.2 PPG (23rd) on 284.2 YPG (29th). Buffalo's defense has been the key so far, allowing a league-low 13.5 PPG on 306.0 YPG (8th). Cincinnati: Bengal fans were calling for Andy Dalton to be benched after Cincy opened with back-to-back home losses to the Ravens and Texans, while failing to reach the end zone (had scored just nine points). However, after throwing four INTs in Week 1, Dalton hasn't had one since, plus he's completed 80.8 percent of his throws the last two games, passing for 498 yards and six TDs! The Bengals took the Packers to OT at Greem Bay (lost 27-24) but then won 31-7 at Cleveland. Dalton is not getting much help from his running game, as rookie Joe Mixon has been a major disappointment (2.6 YPC) and the ground game averages only 88.8 YPG on 3.3 YPC. Like Buffalo, the Cincy defense has been excellent, ranking third in both points scored (16.8 PPG) and 273.2 YPG. The pick: Does a matchup between two top defenses spell an under? Let me first say that I'm not so sure Cincy's defense is all that good. The Bengals have faced Joe Flacco (on the downside of his career), Deshaun Watson (in his first NFL start) and DeShone Kizer, who is not an NFL QB. When facing Rodgers, he lit them up for 313 yards and three TDs. Taylor is no Rodgers but I look for the Bills to score more than expected. As for the Bengals, since Bill Lazor took over as offensive coordinator these last two weeks, Andy Dalton has looked more comfortable, with the Bengals averaging 27.5 PPG (Dalton has six TDS without an INT). This low number means the 8* play is on the Over. |
|||||||
10-07-17 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | Top | 5-8 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: Clayton Kershaw allowed four HRs (fortunately, they were all solo shots) but led by Justin Turner's five RBI, the Dodgers won Game 1 of their NLDS matchup with the D'backs, 9-5. It marked Kershaw's first-ever home playoff win (isn't that something?) and while it was hardly a gem, LA will take it. Turner's three-run, first-inning HR led to a 4-0 first-inning lead, one which LA extended to 7-1. Turner went 3-for-4 to raise his career postseason average to .383 in 60 at-bats.The Diamondbacks belted four solo HRs but they had just two at-bats with runners in scoring position.
|
|||||||
10-07-17 | Wild v. Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -125 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: The Carolina Hurricanes went 36-31-15 last season (seventh in the Metropolitan Division). missing the Stanley Cup Playoffs for an eighth consecutive year (last postseason was back in 2009!). The 2017-18 season began Wednesday but Carolina plays for the first time this season tonight, when it hosts the Minnesota Wild, who opened with a 4-2 loss at Detroit on Thursday. The Wild were 49-25-8 last season with their 106 points second in the West to only the Blackhawks' 109. However, Minnesota was bumped from the playoffs in its first series, 4-1 by St. Louis. Minnesota: The Wild had two, first-period scores disallowed by goaltender interference and while they tied the game with two third-period scores, gave up two goals in 23 seconds to fall 4-2. Zach Parise missed Minnesota's loss on Thursday with a back injury. It's the 64th game he has sat out since signing a 13-year, $98 million contract prior to the 2012-13 season. He won't play Saturday, either. “You want to go in without nursing something,” Parise told the Pioneer Press. “I want to go in and not have that stuff be at the top of my mind - just go in and relax and play - and that’s what I’m shooting toward.” The Wild were one of five teams to finish in the top-10 on the power play and short-handed last season but were 0-for-4 with a man advantage and killed 3-of-5 penalties on Thursday. Carolina: Not sure we should expect Carolina to end its eight-year playoff drought this season, as the team begins what marks the 20th anniversary season of the Hurricanes franchise relocation to North Carolina from Hartford, Ct. However, acquisitions such as Justin Williams and goaltender Scott Darling could make a difference. Williams won his first Stanley Cup with the Hurricanes in 2006 before hoisting two more with Los Angeles, told reporters. "You always want to be a part of that and my role on this team will be an important one." Darling was brought aboard to be the No. 1 goalie as Cam Ward is expected to serve as the backup. Carolina will also be counting on 22-year-old center Elias Lindholm, who increased his assist total in each of the last three seasons and recorded a team-most 34 in 2016-17. The Hurricanes also boast a strong top-four defensive corps with Justin Faulk, Noah Hanifin, Brett Pesce and Jaccob Slavin, providing hope for a club that was challenged offensively with only two players scoring more than 17 goals in 2016-17. The pick: Carolina was one of the NHL's lowest-scoring teams last season and Minneosta one of its best defensive teams. Make the Under an 8* play. |
|||||||
10-07-17 | Maryland v. Ohio State OVER 58.5 | Top | 14-62 | Win | 100 | 114 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: Ohio State (4-1, 2-0 in Big Ten) will host Maryland (3-1, 1-0 Big Ten) at Ohio Stadium in Columbus, Ohio on Saturday. Urban Meyer leads his No. 10 Buckeyes against one of his former assistants for the second week in row, this time around it's D.J. Durkin. This is Durkin's second season at Maryland and the Terps opened the season with a win a shocking 51-41 win Texas (+18) and have also added a 31-24 road win at Minnesota last Saturday (as a two-TD dog), to open Big Ten play. Maryland doesn't appear to be as over-matched as the 6-7 team that was clobbered 62-3 by Ohio State last year. Ohio State is trying to put its 31-16 home loss to Oklahoma behind them, in an effort to climb back into the CFP discussion. Dominating wins over Army, UNLV and Rutgers don't hurt the Buckeyes' chances but also don't help all that much, either. Maryland: The Terrapins rebounded from a surprising home loss to Central Florida by winning 31-24 at Minnesota last week to open its Big Ten slate. However, let's note that UCF is 3-0 and currently ranked 25th in the latest AP poll. Sophomore Max Bortenschlager completed 18-of-28 passes for 154 yards and two TDs plus also ran for a score against Minnesota in his first start after the Terrapins’ top two quarterbacks, Kasim Hill and Tyrrell Pigrome, went down with season-ending knee injuries. RB Ty Johnson has 411 rushing yards on 8.9 YPC with four TDs, leading a ground game that averages 233.5 YPG (24th) on 5.7 YPC with 12 scores. Defensively, Maryland is allowing 30.0 PPG (92nd) and will be severely tested by an Ohio State offense which has scored 148 points over the last three games since the loss to Oklahoma! Ohio State: J.T. Barrett 'laid an egg' against Oklahoma but has comlalted 71.2 percent for 765 yards with 10 TDs (no INTs over 73 attempts) , while adding 125 rushing yards and another TD in OSU's three-game winning streak. Freshman RB Dobbins has 573 yards (7.6 YPC) and three TDs on the season, leading a ground game accounting for 241.0 YPG (20th). The defense is holding opponents to 160.0 YPG (16) on 335.6 YPG (34th). The pick: Barrett has been outstanding the last three games and on the season, has 13 TD passes spread around over nine different players. Freshman J.K. Dobbins has been terrific and now Mike Weber, who ran for 1069 yards last year on 6.0 YP is back, running for three scores against Rutgers after struggling with hamstring issues. The Ohio State defense has allowed fewer than 100 passing yards in each of the last three games, after averaging 403 in the team's first two. With all due respect to Bortenschlager, he is the team's third-team QB. I'll note that Ohio State is just 6-12 its last 18 laying more than 21 points but Meyer's Ohio State teams have a 17-1 SU record in October since 2012. He's shown no mercy against ex-assistant Chris Ash, beating Rutgers 56-0 and 54-0. He took Durkin's Maryland team 'to the woodshed' last year (62-3). You may want to "think twice" about laying the big price but OSU has averaged a notch under 50 PPG its last three and will 'cover' most of this over/under number itself. Make the Over an 8* play. |
|||||||
10-06-17 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers UNDER 7 | Top | 5-9 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: The LA Dodgers owned MLB's best record (104-58) and won the NL West by 11 games over the Arizona D'backs. However, the D'backs beat the Dodgers in the two teams' final six meetings, winning the regular-season series 11-8. The Dodgers have been off since Sunday, while the D'backs had to get past the Rockies in an NL wild card game Wednesday, which they did by winning 11-8. Despite taking a 6-0 lead over the Rockies, Arizona manager Torey Lovullo not only had to pull starter Zach Greinke, who lasted just 3 2/3 innings while giving up four runs, he was forced to use Robbie Ray in Wednesday's game as well. That means Ray, who was 15-5 (2.89 ERA) on the season, is not able to start Game 1 of the NLDS. The pitching: Instead, Taijuan Walker (9-9 & 3.49 ERA) will take the mound for the D'backs in Game 1, opposite the Dodgers' Clayton Kershaw (18-4 & 2.31 ERA). The D'backs went 14-14 (minus-$47) in Walker's 2017 starts but the good news is, his ERA was 2.92 on the road, compared to 4.18 at home. More good news comes in the form of him having gone 2-0 with a 3.24 ERA in three starts against the Dodgers (D'backs were 3-0). "I think the biggest thing is controlling your emotions and taking it one pitch at a time," Walker said at a press conference. "I think you can't go out there and let the adrenaline really get to you. You have to take a deep breath every pitch and really focus on each pitch." Kershaw missed time with a bad back but again was wonderful when on the mound. LA was 23-4 in his starts, giving him MLB's second-best moneyline mark (plus-$1235), despite being stuck with enormous prices in almost every outing. Kershaw dominated the Diamondbacks in two starts this season by going 2-0 with a 0.59 ERA and holding batters to a .118 average. He's seen planet of the D'backs in his career (26 starts), going 14-8 with a 2.55 ERA and 1.12 WHIP (LA is ). The pick: Kershaw is arguably the greatest pitcher of his era but postseason success has eluded him. He enters the 2017 postseason just 4-7 with a 4.55 ERA in 18 career appearances (14 starts) in the postseason. Will it be different here in 2017? Are the Dodgers ready to win a World Series for the first time since 1988? The journey begins tonight and I'll play Under, as I think Walker will surprise plus nothing seems to come easy for Kershaw in the postseason. I expect him to bring his "A game" but can one really lay this kind of a price? Make the Under a 10*. |
|||||||
10-06-17 | Boise State v. BYU OVER 44 | Top | 24-7 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: Friday night football on ESPN will feature the 1-4 BYU Cougars hosting the 2-2 Boise State Broncos. The Cougars are desperately trying to save their season, as it sure looks as if BYU's streak of 12 consecutive bowl appearances is in real danger. Boise State has been to 15 straight bowls but with road games here at BYU and and next weekend at San Diego State (currently 5-0 and ranked No. 19 in the latest AP poll), it hardly looks like "smooth sailing" for the Broncos, either. Boise State: The Broncos fell 42-23 at home in their last game (Sep. 22), making it Boise State’s worst home loss since 2001. QB Brett Rypien was 24 of 42 for 285 yards without a TD pass and one INT vs. the Cavs. He's had a injury-marred season and is not even Boise's clear-cut No. 1 QB. To emphasize the Broncos' woes, I'll note that the team's "other QB," Montell Cozart, is the team's leading rusher with 191 yards. Boise State is averaging just 118.0 YPG on the ground (104th). The Broncos are averaging 29.8 PPG and it's been quite awhile since the team hasn't averaged at least 30 PPG (I quickly looked back eight years and all seasonal averages were 30-plus points). The defense comes in allowing 29.0 PPG (8656th). BYU: Speaking of a lack of scoring, it's hard to fathom seeing a BYU team averaging only 12.6 PPG (126th). The Cougars can't pass (152.6 YPG ranks 118th) or run (104.0 YPG also ranks 118th), leaving them 129th overall in total yards at 256.6 YPG! The Cougars opened with an unimpressive 20-6 home win over Portland State and enter this game on a four-game slide. BYU led 21-7 a minute and a half into the second quarter against Utah State in its last game but then allowed 33 unanswered points, mostly due to seven turnovers. Ouch. Koy Detmer Jr. stepped in for injured QB Beau Hoge (who was already playing for No. 1 QB Mangum) and things went from bad to worse. Detmer took over and went seven of 20 with no scores and three interceptions of his own. Hoge is listed as questionable coming into this game. The BYU defense has played as well as one could expect, considering the fact that the team's offense gives them no 'cover.' The Cougars are allowing 26.4 PPG (72nd) on 381.6 YPG (68th). The pick: With BYU and Boise State's recent (and not-so recent) history, who could have imagined them playing a game against each other and having the over/under number open 45? My sinning totals this year have often been playing "under" and on "inflated numbers" but here, it's just the opposite. Current 2017 form keeps this number low but it's TOO low. Both schools didn't play last weekend so make the Over an 8* play. |
|||||||
10-05-17 | Red Sox v. Astros UNDER 7 | Top | 2-8 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
The pitching matchup: It's a "big-time" showdown in Game 1, as Chris Sale (17-8 & 2.90 ERA) squares off against Justin Verlander (15-8 & 3.36 ERA). Sale was one of MLB's best pitchers for most of the season but struggled over his final eight starts, going 3-4 with a 4.30 ERA (team was 4-4). This marks Sale's first career postseason start, after 260 regular-season games. However, it comes vs. a team he's had great success against, going 5-1 with a 1.31 ERA in six career starts against Houston with 65 strikeouts against only five walks over 48 innings. "I'm 28 years old, so I've been waiting for this about 23 years," Sale told reporters. "This has been a long time coming. A lot of hard work went into this. It's a long season. We had a lot of guys put everything they had on the field the entire season. To have this opportunity right here, it's the best." Verlander's 15 wins don't tell the whole story, as the former MVP and Cy Young winner has gone 5-0 with a 1.06 ERA in five starts since joining the Astros. He allowed four runs (three earned) in 12 innings over two starts against Boston earlier this season, though he did not factor in either decision (Tigers were 1-1). Verlander owns a solid 2.77 ERA vs. Boston over 18 career starts (just 5-6), while the Tigers were only 8-10 in all starts. The pick: "You can't get prepared for it," Verlander told reporters of starting in the postseason. "You have to experience it by being out there and feeling the adrenaline, and experiencing it for yourself." Verlander has had good success in the postseason, save his 0-3 record (7.20 ERA) in three World Series starts. However, he and Houston are two series wins away from a World Series appearance. Have to like Verlander's excellent performance since coming to Houston and his 2.77 ERA in 18 career starts vs. the Red Sox. As for Sale, he's dominated Houston teams in the past and while he struggled down the stretch in 2017, his 2.90 ERA was the second-best among all AL qualifiers plus he owned an 0.97 WHIP, had 308 Ks and opponents batted just .208 against him on the season. Make the Under a 10* |
|||||||
10-04-17 | Blues v. Penguins UNDER 5.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -105 | 35 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: The Pittsburgh Penguins will raise the fifth championship banner in franchise history to the rafters Wednesday night before kicking off the season against the visiting St. Louis Blues on Wednesday. It was the Penguins' second straight Stanley Cup title, as they became the first team to repeat as Stanley Cup champions since the Detroit Red Wings in did so in1997-98. The Blues went 46-29-7 (3rd in Central Division) and were were eliminated by eventual Cup runner-up Nashville in the second round last spring. St. Louis: The Blues have made six consecutive trips to the playoffs but have advanced to the conference finals only once in that span. They open this season looking to build on the momentum they generated last season after Mike Yeo replaced Ken Hitchcock behind the bench. St. Louis went 22-8-2 under Yeo and finished the regular season on a 15-2-2 run, regaining its defensive identity during a 15-game stretch in which it did not allow more than three goals. Veteran goaltender Jake Allen was floundering during the season but posted a 1.85 goals-against average after Yeo took over! Vladimir Tarasenko has amassed 116 goals over the past three seasons (had 39 goals and 75 points last season) but Patrik Berglund (23) was the only other player on the roster to surpass 20. The Blues attempted to address the scoring issue by acquiring Brayden Schenn, who tallied 25 times with Philadelphia while tying for the league lead with 17 power-play goals last season. Captain Alex Pietrangelo, coming off a career-best 14 goals, leads a solid defensive corps. Pittsburgh: Long-time franchise goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury was taken by Las Vegas in the expansion draft but the Pens are just fine in net, as 23-year-old Matt Murray has earned two Cup rings while technically a rookie! Sidney Crosby led the league in goals (44) and tied for second in scoring (89 points) while No. 2 center Evgeni Malkin supplied 72 points in 62 games. That All Star duo is hardly alone. Phil Kessel and Conor Sheary netted 23 goals apiece, Patric Hornqvist chipped in 21 and rookie Jake Guentzel contributed 16 before a spectacular postseason in which he led all scorers with 13 goals in 25 games. The Pittsburgh defense will receive a big boost with the return of standout Kris Letang, who appeared in only 41 games last season and missed the playoffs after undergoing neck surgery. Goaltender Matt Murray appeared in only 62 regular-season games but he's 22-9 with a 1.95 goals-against average in two Stanley Cup title runs. The pick: The Penguins go for a third straight Cup, something that hasn't been done since the NY Islanders won four in a row from 1980 to 1983. However, it's way too early to talk about (or worry) about stuff like that. Pittsburgh is expected to be without winger Patric Hornqvist because of off-season hand surgery, while St. Louis is expected to be without Alexander Steen (hand), Jay Bouwmeester (ankle), Robby Fabbri (knee), Patrik Berglund (shoulder) and Zach Sanford (shoulder). Pttsburgh and St. Louis have split the two-game series in each of the past three seasons and with two top-notch goalies (Allen and Murray) in net tonight, the Under is a 10* play. |
|||||||
10-03-17 | Twins v. Yankees UNDER 7.5 | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -105 | 43 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: The NY Yankees were 84-78 last season but did not make the postseason. As for Minnesota, it's been well-documented that the Twins lost a MLB-high 103 games in 2016, only to become in 2017, the first team to ever make the playoffs coming off a 100-loss season. The Yankees weren't even sure that Aaron Judge was ready to play every day in the big leagues this spring but he went on to hit 52 HRs, knock in 114 runs, bat .284, slug .627 and post a 1.049 OPS (should I leave out the 208 Ks?). The Twins were 52-56 on the morning of Aug. 5 and owned a negative run differential. However, Minnesota started hitting HRs. The Twins were 19th in the major leagues in runs scored at that pouint but they are since first in the major leagues in 'dingers' (87), while going 33-21. As for the Yanks, they led all of MLB with 241 HRs, ranked second in scoring (5.30 RPG) and sit third in OPS (.785). The Twins have lost 12 straight playoff games, the second-longest streak in postseason history, and ine of those losses have come against the Yankees (note: teams haven't met in the postseason since 2010). The pitching matchup: Ervin Santana (16-8 & 3.28 ERA) will start for Minnesota and Luis Severino (14-6 2.98 ERA) for the Yankees. Santana's in his 13th MLB season and he won 16 games for the third time (career-best was 17 wins in 2010). He entered this season just 57-61 over the previous six years (since that 17-win season) and saw the Twins go 8-22 in his 2016 starts, minus-$1450 vs the moneyline (2nd-worst in MLB). However, he opened 5-0 with an 0.66 ERA through six starts in 2017. By the end of May he was 7-2 with 1.75 ERA. However, he's gone 9-6 since and his ERA has risen 1 1/2 runs, finishing at 3.28. His career numbers are not good against the Yanks, as he's 6-10 with a 5.66 ERA over 20 starts (teams are 7-13). Talk about a bounce back season? Let me introduce you to Luis Severino. He made 22 appearances in 2016, including 11 starts. He was 3-8 overall, with a 5.83 ERA. The Yanks were 2-9 in his starts, going minus-$714 vs. the moneyline. So all he's done in 2017 was make the All Star game while recording career bests in wins (14), WHIP (1.04), and strikeouts, finishing fourth-best among AL pitchers with 230 (allowed only 51 walks). Severino has made just one career start against the Twins (just recently, on Sep. 20), pitching only three innings, giving up three ERs on five hits but the Yanks won 11-3 The pick: This will be Santana’s ninth career postseason appearance and his third start in the AL Wild Card Game. He's clearly cooled off since a hot start but over his six September starts, he's posted a 3.31 ERA (1.90 ERA over his last four!). The Yanks have won 13 of the last 15 times that Severino has taken the mound but note, this is the 23-year-old's first postseason start. However, he's backed by a New York bullpen that's held opposing batters to a .205 BA, by far the lowest opponents' BA in the league. NYY relievers have 653 strikeouts in only 538 1/3 innings! Remember that the Twins have lost 12 consecutive postseason games, while the Yankees come into this game having lost five straight playoff contests. These team will be tight in this winner-take-all contest, making the Under a 10* play. |
|||||||
10-02-17 | Redskins v. Chiefs OVER 49 | Top | 20-29 | Push | 0 | 45 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: The 3-0 Kansas City Chiefs come into Week 4 as one of just two unbeaten teams in the NFL (defending champion Atlanta is the other, pending its Sunday game home game with the Bills). KC will welcome the 2-1 Redskins to Arrowhead Stadium for MNF, with Washington coming off an impressive 27-10 win over KC's AFC West rival Oakland in Week 3's SNF contest. This series dates back to 1971, when Hank Stram's last great Chiefs team beat George Allen's first Washington team at old Municipal Stadium in an exciting 27-20 final. KC owns the series, winning eight of nine, with the last meeting coming in 2013, when KC routed Washington 45-10 in Arrowhead. Washington: The Redskins lost their opener, at home to the Eagles but then won 27-20 out in LA over the Rams, before shutting down David Carr and the Oakland offense (Raiders were held to 128 yards and seven FDs!) in a 27-10 home win in Week 3. QB Kirk Cousins was 25-of-30 for 365 yards and three TDs against the Raiders and has completed 68.0 percent for 784 yards with five TDs and just one INT on the season (105.3 QB rating). The running game does not have an established star but ranks sixth in averaging 136.3 YPG. The defense is allowing 20.0 PPG (10th) on 276.0 YPG (5th). Kansas City: QB Alex Smith has always been best-known as a "game manager" but he's completing 77.4 percent for 774 yards with seven TDs and zero INTs (132.7 QB rating leads the NFL!). He has more 'weapons' that ever-before, with WR Hill (16 catches for two TDs), TE Kelce (14 catches) plus rookie RB Kareem Hunt has been 2017's "breakout star." The former Toledo Rocket has 401 yards rushing (8.5 YPC) and four TDs plus nine catches, including two TDs! KC is averaging 31.0 PPG on 397.3 YPG, ranking third in both categories. The defense has allowed a modest 19.0 PPG (7th) but also 369.0 YPG (27th), including 257.3 YPG through the air (23rd). The pick: Andy Reid-coached teams have always been known for their defense and special teams play but with a somewhat conservative offense. However, the Chiefs are averaging 31.0 PPG so far in 2017 and suddenly, have become a "big-play" team. The Chiefs enter this contest having recorded at least one TD of more than 50 yards in an NFL-record nine straight regular-season games. "We've got big-play guys that can go, when given the opportunity. (They) can take it the distance," an elated Alex Smith was quoted as saying. He's right but also, expect Washington's Kirk Cousins to "show up" for this MNF showdown. Both teams have balanced offenses (see above for a reminder) and the play here is a 10* on the over. |
|||||||
10-01-17 | Jaguars v. Jets OVER 39 | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 137 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: The Jacksonville Jaguars return from London after pounding the Baltimore Ravens 44-7 last Sunday, one of the more surprising Week 3 outcomes. The 37-point win represents the Jaguars' largest margin of victory in 10 years and they'll try to ride that positive mojo into their Week encounter at MetLife Stadium this Sunday against the NY Jets. How about the J-E-T-S Jets, Jets, Jets? They nearly earned their first shutout in eight seasons, dominating the Dolphins by teh score of 20-6, with Miami not getting on the board until the game's final play! Jacksonville: The Jags sit 2-1 for the first time since 2007. Blake Bortles nearly lost his starting job during the preseason, coming off a poor 2016. He's only completing 59.6 percent (no big deal) and the Jags rank 23rd in passing YPG (193.3) but he's got six TDs passes (had four vs. the Ravens) and only TWO interceptions. "The biggest thing with Blake is probably psychological. I think mentally, him understanding that we're only going as far as he takes us," said TE Marcedes Lewis. BTW...Lewis caught three of Bortles' four touchdown passes against the Ravens. Rookie RB Leonard Fournette has 199 rushing yards this season and while that may not seem like a big deal to many, it's the most by any Jacksonville player through their first three career games plus he has scored one TD in all three games. The D has been terrific, ranking second in total yards (259.7 per) and 4th in points (17.0 per). NY Jets: Speaking of a good defensive effort, the Jets, after some were waxing on about the team having a win-less season, completely shut down the Dolphins, holding them out of the end zone until the game's final play, while allowing just 225 yards for the entire contest. Much-maligned QB Josh McCown had another efficient game (18 of 23 for 249 yards), including a 69-yard TD pass to Robby Anderson. There hasn't been much offense from New York, with the Jets averaging 280.7 YPG (27th) on 17.3 PPG (22nd). The D will be tested by the Jags' offense, as New York ranks 23rd in scoring (24.0 PPG) and 24th in yards allowed (347.7 per). The pick: Seeing the Jags as a road favorite is disconcerting. They are favored on the road for the first time since they played the Indianapolis Colts in 2011 with Curtis Painter filling in for the injured Peyton Manning. When Jacksonville won 29-7 at Houston in Week 1, it was only the third time Bortles had won the road in 23 tries! The key here is this very low over/under number. Scoring was low in Weeks 1 & 2 but Week 3 games averaging just a tick under 50 PPG. Jags playing with confidence plus McCown may just surprise again. Make the Over an 8* play. |
|||||||
09-30-17 | Mets v. Phillies UNDER 9 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: The Philadelphia Phillies are hosting the New York Mets this weekend, as both teams are glad to see the 2017 season come to an end, as both can then look forward to the hope of better things to come in 2018. The visiting Mets lost 6-2 on Friday, snapping a modest three-game winning streak. At 69- 91, the Mets will now need to win one of their final two games to avoid falling shy of 70 victories for the first time since 2003. The Philly win puts them in a position to win four straight games for the first time in two months. Philadelphia is now 22-16 at Citizens Bank Park since the All-Star break, which has helped the 69-95 Phillies climb over the Tigers and Giants (both 63-97) and out of the MLB 'basement!' The pitching matchup: Seth Lugo (7-5 & 4.72 ERA) will take the mound for the Mets, up against Henderson Alvarez (0-1 & 3.60 ERA) of the Phillies. Jacob deGrom was scheduled to make Saturday's start for New York but a case of gastroenteritis has ended his season. Instead, Seth Lugo moves up a day to get the ball. Lugo is coming off his best start of an otherwise difficult season, posting six scoreless innings and striking out seven to defeat Atlanta 3-2 this past Monday. It was the third time in his last four starts that he has allowed one or zero runs. Lugo gave up five runs in 5 1/3 innings at Philadelphia on Aug. 11 in a no-decision while striking out a career-high eight. He's made just two career starts vs. Philly with a 6.97 ERA but the team is 2-0. Alvarez has been plagued by injuries since leaving the Marlins after the 2015 season (note: he threw a no-hitter as a Marlin in 20013 and was an All Star in 2014). He did little with Oakland (mostly sidelined with injury issues) and signed a minor league deal with the Phiilies in August of 2017. He allowed four runs in five innings in his first start with the Phillies on Sep. 17 but was much better last Saturday, pitching five scoreless inning against Atlanta, finishing with two strikeouts and three walks. Alvarez is 5-2 with a 3.50 ERA in nine career starts against the Mets (teams are 6-3). The pick: Lugo's shown his best over his last four, with one poor start but just a single ER allowed over 17 innings in the other three (0.53 ERA) plus Alvarez is a former All Star pitching with no pressure. What's more, Philadelphia's bullpen boasts a 2.45 ERA over the last 31 games. make the Under a 10* play. |
|||||||
09-30-17 | Navy v. Tulsa UNDER 72.5 | Top | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 100 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: Navy is 3-0 to open the 2017 season (2-0 in AAC play) and looks to start 4-0 for the second time in three years when it visits the Golden Hurricane of Tulsa Saturday at H.A. Chapman Stadium. Tulsa could use a feel good victory here, as the Golden Hurricane have opened 1-3, with the team's lone win coming 66-42 over ULL (another 1-3 school) at home. However, losing at home 16-13 to New Mexico last Saturday hardly inspires much confidence, plus the team lost a 54-51 hesrt-breaker at Toledo the week before! Navy: I'm a huge fan of head coach Ken Niumatalolo and Navy's overall discipline. QB Zach Abey is completing just 36 percent of his passes but he has made the most of his nine completions, throwing for 295 yards and three TDs. His strength is leading a rushing attack which averages 393.0 YPG (2nd), after Navy rushed for 569 yards in last week's 42-32 victory over Cincinnati (the second-most in program history!). Abey has 471 rushing yards (5.8 YPC) and four TDs. Navy is averaging 35.7 PPG, well on its way to its fifth consecutive season in which the Midshipmen will have averaged better than 31.8 PPG! Navy allowed 31.0 PPG in 2016 but just 24.0 PPG so far in 2017, an improvement of a TD per game! Tulsa: QB Chad President is completing a modest 55.9 percent of his passes for 677 yards with just one TD and one interception. That's hardly the standard for past Tulsa QBs. However, Tulsa's ground game is averaging 311.5 YPG (4th), the reason Tulsa checks in scoring 38.5 PPG. The problem for Tulsa is, its defense is allowing 42.8 PPG (124th) on 590.2 YPG (129th). The pick: OK, so here we go again. Regulars are well aware that I've 'made a killing' with my CFB totals in 2017, specializing in going under on over/under numbers like this, which are 'sky high.' Let's chalk up another one here. Make the Under an 8* play. |
|||||||
09-29-17 | BYU v. Utah State OVER 46 | Top | 24-40 | Win | 100 | 81 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: The BYU Cougars have opened the season 1-3 and Friday night will travel to Romney Stadium in Logan, Utah to take on the 2-2 Utah State Aggies. The Cougars were off last Saturday, after losing 40-6 at home to Wisconsin on Sep. 16. The Cougars were out-gained by the Badgers 491-to-192 in total yards, as the the team's season-long offensive woes continued (BYU ranks 130th in scoring at 9.8 YPC). Utah State improved to 2-2 on the season after defeating San Jose State 61-10 this past Saturday. The Aggies jumped all over Spartans, scoring the game's first 55 points and out-gained them by a margin of 589-to-171 in total yards. BYU: It's hard to imagine that BYU, a school known for its offensive prowess over the years, ranks 130th in scoring and 129th in total yards (221.8 YPG). Tanner Mangum was named the starting QB prior to the season but suffered a leg injury during the final play of the Cougars' 19-13 loss to Utah on Sep. 9. Beau Hoge started in place of Mangum against the Badgers, completing 11 of 20 passes for 111 yards and two interceptions in what was the first start of his collegiate career. According to BYU head coach Kalani Sitake, Mangum's availability against the Aggies is still up in the air (note: Mangum took the field as a team captain wearing a protective boot and with an accompanying riding scooter prior to the Cougars' 40-6 loss to Wisconsin). Defensively, BYU has allowed 27.0 PPG (53rd) on 404.0 YPG (82nd). Utah State: Dominating San Jose State is nothing to brag too much about. Leading the way for Utah State was QB Kent Myers, who completed 18-24 passes for 181 yards and two TDs with an INT. The Aggies are averaging 33.0 PPG (56th) on 439.0 YPG (55th) with nice balance (264.0 passing / 175.0 rushing). Defensively, the Aggies are allowing an average of 32.0 PPG (103rd) on 385.0 YPG (66th). Utah State has been helped by forced nine turnovers in four games. The pick: This is the 87th meeting of this series (BYU leads 48-35-3) but I'll note that Utah State has won seven straight home games against non-conference opponents. BYU comes in with an offense which has done nothing but the Cougars are dropping way down in class after losses to LSU, Utah and Wisconsin (combined 10-1 SU). The Cougars have dominated this series since 1983 (won 25 of 28) and I see a "breakout performance." This 'low' total sets up a 10* play on the Over. |
|||||||
09-29-17 | Pirates v. Nationals UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 105 | 18 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: Nationals manager Dusty Baker is liberally resting his stars in a bid to keep his team as healthy as possible as it awaits postseason play. That includes the recently returned Bryce Harper and naturally, people are interested."Nothing. Don't be alarmed. Nothing. Again ... nothing," Baker said in response to reporters asking if something was wrong with Harper, who missed 1 1/2 months with a knee injury before returning to action on Tuesday. The Nats have a huge series looming as they will face the defending champion Cubs in the NLDS. Washington won 5-4 last night in the first of this four-game series with Pittsburgh, a team which will miss its second straight postseason (currently 73-86), after three consecutive wild card appearances (all losses though!) from 2013-2015. The pitching matchup: Gerrit Cole (12-11 & 4.23 ERA) starts for Pittsburgh and Stephen Strasburg (14-4 & 2.63 ERA) for Washington. Cole picked up his first win since August 26 last Saturday, although he allowed five runs on seven hits in the Pirates' 11-6 win over the Cards. Cole has allowed 14 runs in last three starts (16 2/3 innings for a 7.56 ERA) and looks to regain the form that saw him allow one run on three hits in a 6-1 rout of Washington on May 17. He's done well vs. the Nats in his short career, going 3-1 with a 2.56 ERA in five starts (Pirates are 4-1). Strasburg saw his four-start winning streak stalled as he settled for a no-decision in Saturday's game against the New York Mets. He allowed three runs in that contest after tossing five straight outings (35 innings) in which he did not surrender an earned run. The Nats did win Saturday's game 4-3 and Washington has now won Strasburg's last six starts, making them 21-6 (plus-$1050) in all of his 2017 starts, the seventh-best moneyline mark among starters. Strasburg picked up the win versus Pittsburgh on May 16 after permitting three runs in six innings. He's 4-2 with a 2.76 ERA over seven career starts vs. Pittsburgh (Nats are 5-2). The pick:Who knows which players Baker may rest and as noted, Cole's had solid success against the Nats. Strasburg's been "lights out" recently and this marks his final 'tune-up' before the playoffs. Excellent spot to make the Under a 10* play. |
|||||||
09-28-17 | Bears v. Packers UNDER 45.5 | Top | 14-35 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: The NFL's longest rivalry resumes in Week 4's Thursday night game on CBS. The 1-2 Chicago Bears and 2-1 Green Bay Packers meet at Lambeau Field. Back on Sep. 25, 1960, the Chicago Bears, who were coached by the legendary George Halas, beat the Green Bay Packers, who were coached by the future legend Vince Lombardi, 17-14. That victory gave the Bears he Bears a commanding 50-26-6 edge in the series. However, after the Packers swept last year's two games, the series is knotted at 94-94-6. That means that with a victory tonight, the Packers could take the series lead for the first time since 1932! Chicago: Many are not sold on Chicago's current starting QB Mike Glennon. He is completing 67.3 percent of his passes but for a modest 615 yards (Chicago ranks 27th in passing yards), while tossing three TDs and three INTs, giving him a QB rating of only 79.8. However, in fairness, Chicago's wide receiver corps have been ravaged by injury, The running game has been a nice surprise, averaging 121.7 YPG (8th) on 5.0 YPC, led by Howard (197 yards on 4.4 YPC with 3 TDs) and Cohen (157 yards on 6.5 YPC). Chicago will need to find a way to score more, as it is averaging only 15.7 PPG (28th). The defense has been average, allowing 23.0 PPG (21st) on 321.7 YPG (12th). The strength is its rush D, holding opponents to 83.7 YPG to rank 8th. Green Bay: Rodgers is second in the league with 967 yards passing, exceeding 300 in each of the first three games. Although most teams would be just fine with their starting QB owning a passer rating of 93.1, it marks just the third time Rodgers' QB rating is below 100 in the 10 seasons since he took over as Green Bay's starter. Rodgers has attempted at least 42 passes in each game behind a banged-up offensive line, among the reasons he has been sacked a league-high 13 times. Running back Ty Montgomery, despite leading the team with 18 receptions, has rushed for only 124 yards in three games (3.0 YPC). Green Bay comes in averaging only 69.0 YPG on the ground, ranking 29th in the league. The defense has allowed a modest 296.7 YPG (8th-best) but also 22.3 PPG, just 18th-best. The pick: Rodgers has 17 TD passes versus just one interception in his last six meetings with Chicago and he's 15-4 against Chicago with a QB rating of 105.7. I'm not about to go against "the Pack," especially since Chicago comes in on a nine-game road losing streak (last road win was Week 16 of the 2015 season at Tampa Bay). However, the Bears have been quietly playing better than expected. Chicago lost to the defending NFC champion Falcons by just six points in Week 1 and are coming off a shocking home upset over the Pittsburgh Steelers. in OT last Sunday. Meanwhile, the Packers are still dealing with offensive line issues to the point they’re signing players off of other teams practice squads in hopes of patching things up. Both teams are off OT wins and playing on a short week. The play here is a 10* on the Under. |
|||||||
09-28-17 | Rays v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 9-6 | Win | 105 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: The Yankees beat the Rays 6-1 last night (have won 12 of 18 meetings this year) and remained three games back of Boston in the AL East. With just four games remaining in the regular season, winning the American League East is unlikely but the 89-69 Yanks have clinched the No. 1 wild card spot and at 89-69 on the season, will (surely should) reach 90 wins for the first time since 2012. The Rays were eliminated from playoff contention on Tuesday and have dropped three in a row to assure they will finish under .500 for the fourth consecutive season (are currently 76-82). The pitching matchup: Jacob Faria (5-4 & 3.33 ERA) will get the nod for Tampa Bay and Sonny Gray (10-11 & 3.31 ERA) for New York. Faria returns to make his first start since August 16, after missing a month with an abdominal strain (Alex Cobb was scratched due to workload issues). Faria is a rookie who made 13 starts before his injury and allowed two runs over five innings in two relief appearances since being activated. However, Faria comes in win-less in his last four starts, going 0-3 (team was 1-4) with a 5.06 ERA. Faria had a no-decision in his lone appearance against the Yankees, allowing three runs on three hits over four innings back on July 30 (Rays won 5-3). Gray has pitched far better than his 4-6 record indicates since being acquired by the Yankees. His Sep. 12 outing against Tampa Bay is a good example, as he gave up two runs over eight innings in a 2-1 loss. Gray is 3-3 with a 3.71 ERA in 10 career starts against Tampa Bay (teams are 4-6). The pick; Gray owns a 3.12 ERA with the Yanks but recently, he's had some issues with "the long ball," allowing eight HRs in his last six starts. He'll take the mound on Thursday behind a team which has 11 wins in its last 12 home games and 19 wins in its past 26 overall since Aug. 16. The hot streak has assured them of being, at worst, the home team in next Tuesday's wild-card game against the Minnesota Twins. Meanwhile, the Rays are 1-8 at New York this season and clinched their 10th straight series loss at Yankee Stadium with Wednesday's loss. Faria hasn't seen much action since Aug. 30 and was struggling as a starter prior to going on the DL (see above). The play here is on the Over (10*s). |
|||||||
09-27-17 | Nationals v. Phillies UNDER 9 | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: Bryce Harper finally made his return last night, after missing six weeks due to a knee injury. He played five innings in his first contest since Aug. 12, as the Nats lost 4-1 to the Phillies. According to manager Dusty Baker, Harper was "like a little kid on opening Little League day." Baker plans to incorporate Harper into game action as if it were spring training in hopes he's ready to go full throttle for the NLDS. BTW, Washington is locked into the second seed in the playoffs and will host the NL Central champion, either the Chicago Cubs or the Milwaukee Brewers, in the division series. The Nats and Phillies play the rubber match of this three-game series tonight, as the 63-95 Philadelphia, with just four games left in its season, has now guaranteed that it will avoid becoming the franchise's first 100-loss club since 1961. "First of all, when I said that 98, 99 or 100 losses didn't matter, I lied," Phillies manager Pete Mackanin said after his team's win Tuesday.We gain feel his pain. The pitching matchup: Tanner Roark (13-10 & 4.41 ERA) goes for Washington and Mark Leiter Jr. (3-6 & 4.69 ERA) for Philly. Roark went 16-10 with a 2.83 ERA in 2016 but here in 2017, has seen his ERA rise more than 1 1/2 runs. However, he's still 13-10 (team is 16-13 in his 29 starts) and comes in having allowed three ERs or less in his last nine starts (team is 6-3). There is also the fact that he has dominated the Phillies since the start of the 2016 season, posting a 4-0 mark with a 1.87 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Leiter allowed one earned run in six innings versus the Los Angeles Dodgers last Thursday, in getting a no-decision in LA's 5-4 win. However, that effort still leaves him with a 7.17 ERA in four Sep. starts (he's 1-2 and the team 1-3). Leiter's lone win this month came at the expense of Washington, as he overcame a pair of HRs and four runs total in a 5-4 victory on Sep. 9, the rookie's lone start vs. the Nats. The pick: Roark's recent domination of the Phillies (see above for a reminder) plus the fact that Leiter has had confidence-boosting outings in his last two appearances (12 Ks and just two walks in 12 innings) gives me an 8* play on the Under. |
|||||||
09-26-17 | Padres v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
The Dodgers beat the Padres 9-3 last night, giving them their 100th win of the season. There was a time when there was talk that LA had a chance at 116 wins in 2017 but that all ended when the team lost 16 of 17 games. However, the Dodgers have reached the 100-win mark for the first time in 43 years! Two more wins and they will match the Los Angeles-era record set in 1962 and matched in 1974 of 102 wins. Los Angeles also now holds a 4 1/2-game lead over Washington for the best record in the National League and with just five games remaining, the team's magic number is down to two. The San Diego Padres have allowed 17 runs in back-to-back losses and have lost four of their last six contests. The pitching matchup: Dinelson Lamet (7-7 & 4.45 ERA) will be on the mound for San Diego and Alex Wood (15-3 & 2.71 ERA) for LA. Lamet has pitched reasonably well lately, allowing less than two runs in four of his last six outings but finds himself 0-3 and the team 0-6, in that span. Lamet struck out 10 and allowed one run on six hits in a loss on Sep. 1 in his lone career outing against the Dodgers (0-1 & 1.50 ERA). Wood was 10-0 with a 1.67 ERA prior to the All Star game but his performance has dropped since the break, going 5-3 with a 3.97 ERA. He is 1-1 with a 3.21 ERA in three appearances (two starts / LA is 1-1) against the Padres this season and 3-2 with a 2.57 ERA in 11 career games (seven starts / teams are 3-4). The pick: The SD pitching staff has been battered for 17 runs on 22 hits the last two games and no reason to expect Lamet to 'stop the bleeding' (he allowed six hits, including three HRs, and six runs in 5 1/3 innings in his last start). Wood's been pretty 'mortal' since the break and the Over is a 10* play. |
|||||||
09-25-17 | Mariners v. A's UNDER 9.5 | Top | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 22 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: Break up the A's! Oakland completed its second straight three-game sweep with Sunday's 8-1 home victory over the Texas, all but ending Rangers' wild-card hopes over the weekend. Oakland's three-game sweep pushed the Rangers 5 1/2 games behind Minnesota for the second American League wild card with seven contests remaining and now the A's will look to extend their winning streak to eight when they host the Seattle Mariners on Monday. The 72-83 A's will not be able to 'hurt' the Mariners in this three-game series, as 75-81 Seattle was eliminated from playoff contention with Sunday's 4-2 loss against Cleveland, the Mariners' their eighth loss in their last nine games. The pitching matchup: Felix Hernandez (5-5 & 4.57 ERA) will start for Seattle and Daniel Gossett (4-9 & 5.38 ERA) for Oakland. Hernandez makes just his third start since coming off another stint on the DL in mid-September and for the first time since late July, will face a team other than the Rangers. He started against Texas back on July 31, then spent about six weeks on the DL and has made his last two starts against the Rangers, as well. Hernandez is 24-9 with a 2.62 ERA over 45 careers starts against the A's (team is 31-14). Gossett, a 24-year-old rookie, is coming off a no-decision at Detroit on Tuesday, despite allowing six runs on nine hits and three walks over just 4 2/3 innings. However, let's note that he had allowed three runs or less in each of his previous four starts, yet went only 1-3 in that span. The pick: The A's are on a roll and playing without any pressure but the Mariners are also in that same position now (no pressure), after getting eliminated from the postseason. "King Felix's" 24 wins against the A's are his most victories versus any team. No reason to expect him not to be sharp here and this sets up as an Under (10* play). |
|||||||
09-24-17 | Raiders v. Redskins UNDER 54 | Top | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 129 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: It's Sunday night NFL action on NBC from FedEx Field, as the 2-0 Oakland Raiders visit the 1-1 Washington Redskins. The Raiders have quickly established that last year's 12-4 season was no fluke, beating the Titans 26-16 in Tennessee (impressive win) and then routing the Jets back in Oakland, 45-20. The Redskins were upset at home in Week 1 by the Eagles (30-17) but the team's 27-20 Week 2 win in LA over the Rams is starting to look better, after the Rams have scored 46 and 41 points in their other two games to open the 2017 season. Oakland: Derek Carr is completing 75.0 percent of his passes for 492 yards with five TDs and zero INTs (126.5 QB rating) five touchdowns and zero interceptions. WRs Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper have combined for 258 receiving yards and four TDs while TE Jared Cook has nine receptions. Crabtree has 20 TD catches since the start of the 2015 season, tying him for fourth in the NFL in that span (pretty sweet FA pick-up!). The running game is chipping in 144.5 YPG (5th), while averaging a healthy 5.2 YPC. With the offense averaging 35.5 PPG (2nd-best), the defense is doing just fine in allowing 18.0 PPG (10th). Washington: QB Kirk Cousins threw for nearly 5,000 yards last season but is off to a slow start (only 419 passing yards) after losing his starting WRs in free agency. He is trying to establish a rapport with Terrelle Pryor (eight catches for just 97 yards without a TD catch) and it sure won't help if TE Jordan Reed plus starting RB Rob Kelley both miss (each is listed as questionable due to injuries). However, third-down back Chris Thompson and rookie Samaje Perine filled in nicely for a ground game that produced 229 yards against the Rams. Washington's defense ranks 26th in both points allowed (25.0 per) and total yards (350.0 per), although the team's rush D is allowing just 77.5 YPG. However, Carson Wentz riddled the Washington secondary for 307 yards in the air in Week 1 and stopping Carr may be a 'bridge too far.' The pick: The Raiders enter this contest on an impressive 11-2 ATS run over their last 13 road game (most as an underdog, though) plus QB Carr, who began his career with 10 consecutive defeats, comes in 14-3 over his last 17 starts! However, Washington head coach Jay Gruden has his own spread success lately as well, as he's 15-7 ATS his last 22 regular season games. Tough call on the side but this is Week 3's highest total (could climb even higher by game time) and like in Week 1 at Tennessee, expect an Under for the Raiders on the road. Make it an 8* play. |
|||||||
09-24-17 | Texans v. Patriots OVER 43.5 | Top | 33-36 | Win | 100 | 121 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: The Houston Texans and the New England Patriots square off in Week 3 NFL action from Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, a rematch of the Patriots' 34-16 win in last season's Divisional Round of the playoffs when Houston was without injured star J.J. Watt. He is back and healthy (although he's sack-less) plus Houston is a banged-up football team. Both teams are 1-1, losing their openers before winning in Week 2. Houston won 13-9 at Cincinnati with Deshaun Watson making his first NFL start, while Brady rebounded from his awful Week 1 performance by ripping the Saints for 447 yards and three TDs on 30 of 39 passing in the Pats' 36-20 win. Houston: No one can say a 13-9 win over the struggling Bengals is a big deal. Deshaun Watson completed 15 of 24 passing for only 125 yards (no TDs or INTs) but led Houston in rushing with 67 yards, including a spectacular 49-yard TD scamper. RB Lamar Miller added 61 yards on the ground with his team-leading 18 carries, while DeAndre Hopkins was one of just four Texans’ receivers to catch a pass in the win, leading the team with seven receptions for 73 yards. The Texans, who finished No. 1 total defense last season (301.3 YPG) even without Watt for most of the year, recovered a fumble, made three sacks and held Cincy to just 295 yards and without a TD (three FGs). Then again, it was against the Bengals, not Brady and the Pats. New England: There was more than a little 'chatter' after Brady was held without a TD pass in New England's opener against the Chiefs (Brady had the league's lowest passer rating after that humbling 42-27 setback to Kansas City). However, the doubters have all been quieted, after his Week 2 effort at New Orleans (see above). The Pats head into this contest averaging 31.5 PPG (5th) on 341.5 YPG through the air (No. 1 in the NFL). There could be some concern with the defense though, as after allowing an NFL-low 15.6 PPG in 2016, on 326.4 YPG (6th), the Pats are allowing 31.0 PPG (30th) on 483.0 YPG (31st). The pick: The Patriots took it to the Texans last season, winning both meetings, including a 27-0 shutout win in Week 3 (Brady was still serving his suspension) and then that 34-16 win in the playoffs. Deshaun Watson had a solid first start but beating the sad-sack Bengals is one thing, beating the Pats of Brady and Belichick, is another. Rookie QBs are 5-15 (in the first or only meeting of a rookie season) against Belichick through his time in New England. The Foxboro numbers are even scarier, 0-8 with five TDs, 16 INTs and a 50.7 passer rating. Add to that, the fact that the Texans have never won in Foxboro (0-5) and are 1-8 overall against the Patriots, with six straight losses. I'd say lay it with the Pats but I'm troubled by New England's D so far and I like what I see from Watson. Make the Over an 8* play. |
|||||||
09-23-17 | Arkansas State v. SMU UNDER 73 | Top | 21-44 | Win | 100 | 103 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: The 1-1 Arkansas State Red Wolves of the Sun Belt will travel to Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas to take of the AAC's SMU Mustangs, who have opened their season 2-1. The Red Wolves opened with a tightly-contested 43-36 loss in Lincoln against Nebraska, before seeing their game with Miami-Fla. canceled to due to Hurricane Irma. ASU picked up its first win of 2017 by routing Arkansas-Pine Bluff at home, 48-3 last Saturday. SMU opened its season with home wins over SF Austin (58-14) and North Texas (54-32) but then could not slow down then-No. 20 TCU last Saturday in Fort Worth, losing 56-36. SMU gets Arkansas St. this Saturday and then UConn next Saturday (both at home), so the Mustangs have to be 'smelling' a 4-1 start, not bad for a program that was just 5-7 last year, plus 2-10 and 1-11 the previous two seasons. Arkansas State: QB Justice Hansen is completing 70.7 percent of his passes for 751 yards with eight TDs and just two interceptions. It's only two games but ASU's 385.5 YPG through the air ranks 8th-best in the nation. The defense had its problems with Nebraska (43 points allowed on 463 yards) but then the three points allowed vs. Ark-Pine Bluff, makes the defensive stat sheet look somewhat better. SMU: QB Ben Hicks is completing just 48.4 percent of his passes but he's thrown for 729 yards with eight TDs and three interceptions. Hicks and Rafe Peavey have combined for nine touchdown passes this season and an average of 318.3 YPG passing (20th-best). Freeman (151 yards) and Jones (150 yards) lead a rushing attack which averages 155.3 YPG. All told, it has translated into 49.3 PPG or 6th-best in the nation. SMU couldn't stop TCU at all (56 points on 619 yards) and will enter this game with its defense allowing 34.0 PPG (105th). The pick: OK, so is the Over the play? I've had great success so far in 2017 by "playing under" on more than a few of these games with extremely high totals. That's the angle once again here, as I make the Under an 8* play. |
|||||||
09-22-17 | Virginia v. Boise State OVER 51.5 | Top | 42-23 | Win | 100 | 80 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: Friday night CFB on ESPN comes from Albertsons Stadium (home of the famous "Blue Turf'), as the 2-1 Boise State Broncos host the 2-1 Virginia Cavaliers. The Cavs have opened the 2017 season with three consecutive home games, beating William & Mary 28-10, losing 34-17 to Indiana and then topping UConn, 38-18. The Broncos own home wins over Troy (24-13) and New Mexico (28-14), sandwiched around a 47-44 triple-OT loss at Washington State. The schools have only met once before, with Boise State crushing the Cavs 56-14 at Charlottesville in 2015. Virginia was just 4-8 taht season but fell to 2-10 last year, in Bronco Mendenhall's first season at Virginia.
|
|||||||
09-22-17 | Angels v. Astros UNDER 8 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 105 | 19 h 55 m | Show |
The setup: The Astros lost at home to the sad-sack White Sox last night and it's looking more and more as if Cleveland will wind up with the AL's best overall record (Indians lead the Astros by 2 1/2 games). Houston begins a three-game home series with the LA Angels tonight, a team looking to snap a four-game losing streak. The Angels find themselves in a funk, having lost nine of their last 13, putting them 2 1/2 games behind Minnesota for the American League's second wild-card spot (along with the Texas Rangers). The pitching matchup: Garrett Richards (0-2 & 2.00 ERA) will take the mound for LA in an effort to stop the bleeding but his opponent will be the red-hot Justin Verlander (13-8 & 3.50 ERA). The injury-plagued Richards has made just four starts in 2017 (he's 2-0 and the team 2-2) and 10 total over the past two seasons. He's currently attempting to regain his form after a biceps injury. Richards has lost back-to-back starts, pitching five innings in each outing. He is 5-4 with a 3.58 ERA in 13 career appearances (10 starts / team is 6-4) against the Astros, including a 1-0 loss opposite Verlander in which he gave up one run and four hits over five innings on Sep. 12. Verlander has been everything (and more) for Houston. He has struck out 26 and walked just three in 21 innings since joining Houston's rotation, going 3-0 with a 0.86 ERA in three outings since being acquired from Detroit. "I think my mechanics and everything have been pretty good," the 34-year-old Verlander told reporters. "My last few starts are really to try to go out there and maintain that feel and just attack and help get us a win." Verlander is a modest 7-8 with a 3.55 ERA in 18 career starts (teams are 8-10) vs the Angels, which includes 1-1 with a 2.57 ERA in two starts versus the Angels this year. The pick: Houston's starting rotation has allowed just nine ERs on 26 hits and 13 walks with 42 strikeouts over the past 42 innings, good for a 1.93 ERA during that stretch. Clearly, Houston's starters are trending in the right direction at the most opportune time with the postseason upcoming and Verlander is leading the way. However, note that Richards has been quite effective in his four 2017 starts. Yes, he hasn't gone longer than five innings in any one of them but he's allowed just 13 hits in 18 innings with an 18-4 KW ratio, 0.89 WHIP and a .194 BAA. Like when these two pitchers met back on Sep 12 (a 1-0 final), the Under is a 10* play. |
|||||||
09-21-17 | Rangers v. Mariners UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 24 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: The Mariners won the final three games of a four-game set in Texas against the Rangers from Sep. 12-14. However, Seattle has lost all five games since then, while Texas has followed a five-game skid, which began with those three straight home setbacks to Seattle, with three consecutive wins. While the Mariners now sit four games behind the Twins with 10 to play for the AL's final wild card spot, the Rangers have climbed to within 2 1/2 games of Minnesota with 11 contests remaining in their season. The pitching matchup: Cole Hamels (10-4 & 3.96 ERA) starts for Texas and James Paxton (12-4 & 2.98 ERA) for Seattle. Hamels has posted only one victory over his last five starts (team is 2-3) but did pitch well enough to win this past Saturday, when he allowed two runs on four hits over 7 1/3 innings of a 2-0 road loss to the LA Angels. Hamels improved to 6-3 lifetime against Seattle on Sep, 11, when he gave up three runs and tied a season high with seven strikeouts in six innings (teams are 8-5 in his 13 career starts against the Mariners but he owns a 5.02 ERA!). Paxton returned from a pectoral strain this past Friday but worked only 1 1/3 innings in a 5-2 loss at Houston. He gave up three runs on four hits and two walks as he reached his limit of 50 pitches. It was his first defeat since June 27 against Philadelphia. He hasn't surrendered more than three ERs since June 16 at Texas, a span of 11 starts (Mariners are 8-3). However, Paxton lost that June 16 outing vs. the Rangers, falling to 2-3 with a 4.60 ERA in nine career starts against the Rangers (teams are 4-5) with that setback, although he allowed two hits over eight scoreless innings in a win versus the club back on April 15. The pick: It's likely neither team will make the postseason but in this one, but Paxton has allowed no more than three ERs in 11 straight starts) and Hamels is Hamels. Make the Under an 8* play. |
|||||||
09-20-17 | Diamondbacks v. Padres OVER 7.5 | Top | 13-7 | Win | 105 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: The Arizona Diamondbacks are attempting to nail down the NL's No. 1 wild card but so far, it's been a "lost series" in San Diego with the D'backs losing the first two of this three-game series against the Padres. Arizona owns 4 1/2-game lead over Colorado for the first wild-card spot in the National League but tonight, looks to avoid a sweep at the hands of the Padres, who own a three-game winning streak but just a 68-83 record. |
|||||||
09-19-17 | Rockies v. Giants UNDER 8 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 22 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: The Colorado Rockies are trying to hold off the Milwaukee Brewers, who are two games behind, and St. Louis Cardinals (4 1/2 back) for the NL's second wild card. The Rockies will begin their final road trip of the campaign with a visit to the MLB-worst San Francisco Giants on Tuesday to start a two-game series, then head to San Diego for four games. Colorado finishes at home against first the Marlins and then the Dodgers. For Colorado, that wild card spot is there for the taking, as the Giants, Padres and Marlins all own losing records! As for the 58-93 Giants, they are staring down their first 100-loss season since 1985 and only the second in franchise history, with their next eight games against postseason hopeful Colorado (owns the 3rd-best moneyline in MLB), before taking on the Dodgers (owners of MLB's best record) and then the Diamondbacks (own the 2nd-best moneyline mark in MLB). |
|||||||
09-17-17 | Packers v. Falcons OVER 53.5 | Top | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 102 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: The Packers opened the 2017 season with a solid 17-9 home win over the Seattle Seahawks, while the defending NFC champion Atlanta Falcons won their season opener 23-17 at Chicago. The two teams meet Sunday night in Atlanta, for the Falcons' first regular season game in their new home, the Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The Packers most recent visit to Atlanta is one the team would rather forget. Green Bay entered last season's NFC conference championship game on an eight-game winning streak but was never in it against Atlanta, falling behind by 24 points at halftime in a 44-21 blowout. "If you're thinking about last year and talking about last year, you're just wasting time and energy," Packers head coach Mike McCarthy said. The Falcons will be looking to beat Green Bay for the third time in just 11 months, as they squeezed out a 33-32 victory at home last October on a last-minute TD pass from Matt Ryan Green Bay: The Packers may have scored just 17 points against the Seahawks in Week 1 but Aaron Rodgers threw for 311 yards (had one TD pass and one INT). RB Ty Montgomery had 93 total yards and a touchdown, while WRs Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson combined for 16 receptions and a score last week. Defensively, the Packers held Seattle to just 225 yards of total offense on 12 FDs (3 for 12 on 3rd down), while getting three sacks and forcing a fumble. Green Bay's offense helped the defense by dominating the T.O.P. battle. 39:13-to-20:47. Atlanta: While the Packers earned an impressive victory against a fellow NFC powerhouse last week, the Falcons needed Brooks Reed's fourth-and-goal sack to hold off the rebuilding Bears, 23-17. However, Falcons head coach Dan Quinn was pleased with the ending, perhaps in no small part because of how his team couldn't hold off the New England Patriots in the Super Bowl. "I wasn't disappointed that we had to go all the way to the end," he said. "Those are kind of the finishes that as a coach you hope you can put your team into some of those spots and have some resiliency there at the end. It took all day, for sure." Ryan connected on an 88-yard scoring strike to TE Austin Hooper in the fourth quarter and finished with 321 yards passing in the season opener. However, The backfield tandem of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman was a big disppointment, combined for only 53 yards rushing on 20 carries in Week 1. The pick: Ryan has put up huge numbers over the past three matchups against the Packers, passing for 1,055 yards with 11 TDs against just one interception (passed for seven TDs and no picks in LY’s pair of wins over GB). WR Julio Jones torched Green Bay in the NFC title game with nine catches for 180 yards and two scores plus had an 11-catch, 259-yard monster performance against the Packers back in 2014. The again. don't expect Rodgers to take a backseat in this matchup. After all, he has a QB rating of 117.0 in seven matchups against Atlanta, throwing for 29 TD passes against two picks. These two teams have combined for at least 65 points in each of the last three meetings (including LY's NFC title game), so why should it be any different here? Make the Over an 8* play. |
|||||||
09-17-17 | Patriots v. Saints OVER 55.5 | Top | 36-20 | Win | 100 | 95 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: The New England Patriots and New Orleans Saints meet Sunday at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, with both teams looking for their first win of 2017. The defending Super Bowl champions have had 10 days to stew over their shocking 42-27 season-opening home loss to the KC Chiefs on the season's first Thursday night game, while the Saints look to get things straightened on defense, as well as on offense, as the team was uncharacteristically impotent on the offensive side of the ball a 29-19 Monday night road loss to the Minnesota Vikings. The New Patriots have not started a season 0-2 since 2001, while the Saints hope to avoid losing the first two games of the season for the fourth consecutive season!
New England: Can you believe that Brady Brady is ranked dead-last in the league with a completion percentage of 44. , after going 16 of 26 without a TD pass in the Pats' season opener? What's more, he has glaring issues at WR with Julian Edelman out for the year, Malcolm Mitchell on injured reserve and Danny Amendola is in the NFL's concussion protocol. Also, Brady's security blanket, TE Rob Gronkowski, looked rusty in the loss to the Chiefs, catching just two passes for 33 yards. New RB Mike Gillislee did rush for three TDs in Week 1 but the Patriots were also stuffed on three short-yardage situations. Then there is the New England defense which allowed 537 yards (!!!) to the Chiefs plus the 42 points KC scored were the most allowed since coach Bill Belichick arrived in New England! New Orleans: The Saints are also looking for answers in Week 2. "A sense of urgency has been created," acknowledged Drew Brees. "It's very important. It's our home opener, and we want to get back on track." New Orleans struggled to get un-tracked offensively at Minnesota but the team is a different animal when playing on the fast track of the Superdome. Brees finished with 291 yards and a TD plus Adrian Peterson tied for the team high with 18 yards on six carries in his debut with New Orleans. Coming off a 2016 season in which Minnesota was among the league's worst with averages of 375.4 YPG and 28.4 PPG allowed, the Saints surrendered 470 total yards and 29 points to the Vikings. The pick: New England is a remarkable 42-6 SU following a loss since 2004 and plays its first road game of 2017 here, after going a perfect 8-0 on the road last season. As noted above, Brees acknowledged "a sense of urgency." Here's why. Another slow start could prove devastating to the Saints. New Orleans has failed to make the playoffs in each of the past three seasons. The Saints started 0-2 in 2014, 0-3 in 2015 and 0-3 last season. In fact, since owning an 11-5 record back on Dec. 29, 2013, the Saints have gone 1,358 days without a winning record. Can the Saints win on Sunday? New England's 'bounce-back' history says no but Brees is averaging 357.7 YPG passing in his last 15 home games. On the other side, anyone NOT think Brady will have something to prove off that embarrassment against the Chiefs? Make the Over an 8* play. |
|||||||
09-16-17 | San Jose State v. Utah OVER 60 | Top | 16-54 | Win | 100 | 80 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: The 1-2 San Jose State Spartans will visit Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City to take on the 2-0 Utah Utes this Saturday night. The Utes are not ranked in the AP poll but do check in at No. 24 in the coaches' poll. The Spartans own a 43-13 home win over Cal-Poly but have lost 42-22 at home to USF (season-opener) and last Saturday lost 56-0 at Texas. The Utes opened with a 37-16 home win over North Dakota and then improved to 2-0 on the season by defeating BYU 19-13 at Provo this past Saturday. Utah jumped out to a 19-6 lead with 2:35 left in the 3rd quarter and were able to survive a late BYU comeback in the 4th. San Jose State: The Spartans opened the season with a first-year head coach in Brent Brennan and have played three QBs so far with red-shirt freshman Montel Aaron making his first start in the loss to Texas. The Spartans are averaging only 18.7 PPG (110th) on 346.7 YPG (99th). The defense was gashed for 623 total yards by Texas, including 406 yards and six TDs on the ground. San Jose St. is allowing 37.0 PPG (115th) on 468.0 YPG (112th). Utah: Tyler Huntley is the team's new QB and he's a true dual-threat. He has completed 73.5 percent of his passes for 527 yards (one TD / one INT) and is also he team’s leading rusher with 159 yards on 37 attempts (three rushing TDs). Huntley's top target is Oregon transfer Darren Carrington, who has 17 catches for 256 yards and a TD. The Utes are averaging a modest 28.0 PPG (87th) on offense but the defense has been excellent, allowing 14.5 PPG (30th) on 235.5 YPG (17th). The pick: Utah holds a 7-1 lead in the series between these former WAC rivals, including a 34-16 road win last season in San Jose. The Utes are 23-1 in non-conference games since joining the Pac-12 in 2011. Utah hasn't had a breakout offensive effort yet but I expect one here vs. San Jose State, which was routed by Texas last week (see above) and as noted above, has allowed 37.0 PPG (115th) on 468.0 YPG (112th). The Over is an 8* play. |
|||||||
09-16-17 | Diamondbacks v. Giants UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 20 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: The Arizona Diamondbacks won 3-2 last night at San Francisco in the first of a three-game series against the against the Giants. The Diamondbacks won without the services of a scorching J.D. Martinez (10 HRs over his last 11 games), who was a late scratch because of a stiff neck. Fellow outfielder A.J. Pollock picked up the slack with a two-run double in the seventh inning that rallied Arizona from behind (note: Martinez will be re-evaluated before Saturday's game). The loss was just another nail in the coffin in what's become a 'nightmare' season for the Giants. San Francisco has 'caught' the Phillies for MLB's worst record (SF is now 57-92) and the Giants have owned MLB's worst moneyline mark for quite some time now (minus-$3960, which is about $1000 worse than any other team!). The pitching matchup: Two outstanding pitchers square off, although only one is having an excellent season. That would be Zach Greinke (16-6 & 2.99 ERA), who goes for Arizona. The Giants will send Madison Bumgarner (3-8 & 3.55 ERA). Greinke can gain a share of the major-league lead in victories, as he seeks his 17th win. That would tie Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers and the Brewers' Zach Davies for the lead. Greinke has been dominanat over his last four outings, posting a 2.03 ERA and 0.86 WHIP (he's 2-0 and the team 3-1). He has won eight of his past 10 decisions. More good news comes Arizona's way in that he's had all sorts of success vs. the Giants, going 10-2 with a 2.56 ERA in 16 career starts (teams are 13-3). Bumgarner has lost three straight starts and allowed 11 runs in as many innings over his last two starts, during an uncharacteristically poor stretch. Bumgarner is 0-2 with a 3.00 ERA in three starts against Arizona this season (Giants are 0-3) and 9-9 in 28 starts (team is 15-13) against the D'backs in his career. The pick: Tough to get involved with the Giants these days but note that Bumgarner owns an excellent 2.61 ERA in 28 career starts vs. the D'backs (that's quite a sample size!). As for Greinke, I noted his terrific career numbers against the Giants above and will add here that he owns a 1.66 ERA in six career outings at AT&T Park. Make the Under a 10* play. |
- Early Lines
- High Limits
- NEW VIP Rewards
- VIP Program
- Mobile Betting
- Crypto
- VIP Program
- Crypto
- Live & Mobile Betting!
- Crypto
- Live & Mobile Betting
- 48 Hour Payouts
- 35% Crypto Bonus
- Live Betting
- Mobile Friendly
Guaranteed Winners or your money back and Free Picks in the NFL football, NBA basketball, MLB baseball, NCAA college football and basketball, Nascar Racing, Arena Football nhl hockey leagues and more.
We are part of the internets Premier Sports Handicappers League with full documentation of all members on this sports betting news and info portal. Free Membership, Join Today and start Winning!
For any resources you could need like sports handicapping odds, handicapping stats, schedules, or handicappers free picks and tips please click on any of the links on the right hand side of this page.