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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-20-16 | Cavs v. Bucks OVER 211.5 | Top | 114-108 | Win | 100 | 24 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: The 19-6 Cleveland Cavaliers are in Milwaukee Tuesday night to face the 13-12 Bucks. The last time the Cavs visited Milwaukee, they were soundly beaten 118-101, a defeat which began a three-game losing skid for Cleveland. Cleveland: The Cavs ended that mini losing streak by winning six of seven beginning on Dec. 2 and that lone loss came when LBJ (25.0-7.6-9.0), PG Kyrie Irving (23.8) and PF Kevin Love (22.2 & 10.7) all remained home and the squad lost in Memphis. Irving was held out of back-to-back games due to tired legs and was fresh in the contest against the Lakers, when he had 21 points, 12 assists and six rebounds. Irving wasn't thrilled to miss multiple games and both he and coach Tyronn Lue were aware there was a major backlash about the absences of the "Big Three" in Memphis. The “Big Three” won’t all be in the lineup again tonight, as Kevin Love tweaked his left knee Saturday in the Cavs' 119-108 victory over the Lakers and didn't practice Monday. Later in the day, the team announced that Love suffered a contusion in the knee and he won’t play tonight. "He took a blow to the knee, knee-to-knee, and it swelled up on him and it's kind of stiff," Cleveland coach Tyronn Lue told the Cleveland Plain-Dealer. Milwaukee: Love sat out the fourth quarter of the Cavs' last meeting with Milwaukee, as did the rest of Cleveland's star-laden lineup as the Bucks took control early and cruised to a 118-101 victory on Nov. 29. The game was tied at 65 early in the third, but Milwaukee closed the quarter on a 27-9 run, leaving Lue to turn to his reserves. Giannis Antetokounmpo (22.6-9.1-6.0) had 34 points and added 12 rebounds, five assists, five steals and a pair of blocks in that win. Jabari Parker (19.4 & 5.6) had 18 in the win and has averaged 20.7 points on 51.6 percent shooting in his last 10 games, a streak that began against the Cavs. Milwaukee’s starting PG is Matthew Dellavedova, who was a key reserve on Cleveland's NBA championship team last season. He is averaging 8.0 points and 5.7 assists but is shooting just 39.3 percent from the floor. The pick: The Bucks are rarely on national TV, making them an undervalued commodity at home. They stunned the Cavaliers 117-101 at Bradley Center back on Nov. 29 and the Cavs have won by more than four points in only two of their first 10 road matchups. With some revenge on their minds, expect a strong effort from Cleveland but Milwaukee just match them, point for point. The Over is an 8* play.
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12-20-16 | Avalanche v. Wild OVER 5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -116 | 24 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: The 11-18-1 Colorado Avalanche have lost three straight and are on the road, looking to slow down the red-hot 18-8-4 Minnesota Wild. Minnesota has won seven in a row and is two wins shy of matching its longest run of nine straight victories, which was established in March 2007. Colorado: The Avalanche own the fewest points in the NHL with 23 and have surrendered at least three goals in seven of nine games in December, including a 10-1 mauling at Montreal. They come to Minnesota not only on a three-game skid but with 10 losses in their last 12 games (2-9-1). Colorado is hoping for a boost from the return of starting netminder Semyon Varlamov, who will be back in goal following a three-game absence due to a groin injury. Although Varlamov is just 6-12-0 (3.21 GAA / .904 save percentage) on the season, his last start was a 51-save gem in a 3-1 win at Toronto on Dec. 11. "We can play with any team in this league," Varlamov said Monday. "It's just up to us how we want to play, that's the thing." Minnesota: The Wild have won seven in a row to improve to 18-8-4 on the season and no team in the NHL is allowing fewer goals per game than Minnesota (1.93). Also, only a handful of teams are scoring at a higher rate than the Wild's 2.93 goals per game. One of the key reasons for Minnesota's offensive resurgence has been the play of center Eric Staal, who on Monday was named the NHL's Third Star of the Week. After netting only one tally in a span of 15 games, Staal pumped in four goals and added an assist over the last three contests to boost his team-high totals to 10 goals, 14 assists and 24 points. However, the Wild are where they are because of the play of goalie of Devan Dubnyk. He hasn't lost in regulation since Nov. 19 and is 15-6-3 on the season with a 1.62 GAA and a .947 save percentage. The pick: Dubnyk’s been great but also note that the Wild have scored 14 goals in their last three games and Colorado’s 3.20 GPG is the highest of any team in the league (Avalanche allow 3.33 GPG on the road). The Over is a 10* play.
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12-19-16 | Ducks v. Maple Leafs UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
complete analysis coming |
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12-19-16 | Central Michigan v. Tulsa UNDER 70 | Top | 10-55 | Win | 100 | 50 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: The 6-6 Central Michigan Chippewas face the 9-3 Tiulsa Golden Hurricane in the Miami Beach Bowl at Marlins Park. This marks CMU’s fourth straight bowl appearance (1-2 last three) and for Tulsa, which has the smallest undergraduate enrollment of any FBS school (about 4,600), it’s the school’s 21st bowl appearance, including its 10th since 2003. Central Michigan: The Chippewas made national news with their memorable no-time-on-the-clock, hook-and-ladder Hail Mary touchdown to upset Oklahoma State in Stillwater, Okla. back on Sept. 10. After the game, it was determined the MAC officiating crew - which later was suspended - had made a mistake by giving Central Michigan an extra untimed down with no time remaining after Oklahoma State was called for intentional grounding on fourth down. Oh well! In fact, that “win” came in very handy for Central Michigan, which lost four of its final five games, including a 26-21 heartbreaker to Eastern Michigan in its regular-season finale on a long TD pass with just 21 seconds left. Without the Oklahoma State victory, Central Michigan would be spending mid-December in chilly Mount Pleasant, Mich. instead of sunny Miami. The Chippewas are led by senior QB Cooper Rush, who has thrown for 3,299 yards and 23 TDs. WR Corey Willis is his favorite target with 1,028 yards receiving and nine TDs while Devon Spalding is the team's top rusher with 737 yards and six TDs on 131 carries despite missing two games (CMU averages a modest 119.2 YPG to rank 116th). The defense allows 28.2 PG (69th). Tulsa: Head coach Philip Montgomery, in just his second season, has guided Tulsa to an average of 522.6 YPG which ranks No. 5 in FBS nationally. Not only that, the former Baylor offensive coordinator has the Golden Hurricane on the verge of becoming the first FBS program to feature a 3,000-yard passer, two 1,000-yard rushers and two 1,000-yard receivers. Tulsa already is the just the fifth team with a 3,000-yard passer (quarterback Dane Evans with 3,044), two 1,000-yard rushers (running backs James Flanders with 1,529 and D'Angelo Brewer with 1,330) and a 1,000-yard receiver (wide receiver Keenan Lucas with 1,108). WR Josh Atkinson goes into the game needing just 73 yards in catches to hit 1,000. Tulsa averages 41.4 PPG to rank 11th and the defense allows 31.5 PPG (92nd). The pick: This will not be a low scoring game but the over/under number is so high, I’m making the Under a 10* play.
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12-18-16 | Bucs v. Cowboys UNDER 47 | Top | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 77 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: The 8-5 Tampa Bay Bucs are in Dallas on Sunday night to take on the 11-2 Cowboys, who saw their 11-game winning streak finally end last Sunday in a 10-7 loss to the Giants. The Bucs come in on a five-game winning streak, after last Sunday’s 16-11 home win over the Saints. It marks Tampa Bay's longest unbeaten run since 2002. Tampa Bay: The Bucs have been thrilled with the overall play of Jameis Winston since taking him with the No. 1 pick of the 2015 draft but the offense has struggled some under Winston during the winning streak, scoring just six TDs in the last four games. Winston has thrown for 3,364 yards through 13 games and owns a 23-12 ratio. However, he failed to pass for or run for a TD vs. the Saints, ending his streak of 28 straight games with at least one rushing or passing TD to begin his career! However, the Bucs defense bailed the offense out, holding Brees without a TD pass (picked him off three times!) and the New Orleans’ offense to just 294 total yards on 14 FDs. The Bucs have given up a league-low 12.8 PPG since Week 10 and the six total TDs scored by opponents are tied for the fewest during that span. Dallas: Rookie QB Dak Prescott is 11-2 as a starter, he's thrown for 20 TDs with only four INTs and his team has the best record in the NFC and is tied with the New England Patriots for the NFL's top mark. However, he threw as many INTs in last week’s 10-7 los at the Giants (two), as he had in the season’s first 12 games. He completed just 17 of 37 passes for 165 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions against the Giants and over Dallas’ last two games, the Cowboys have been successful on just 2 of 24 third-down conversions, while scoring just 24 points. Prescott has failed to reach 200 yards passing in each of his last three games. So, is it “Tony Romo time” yet? Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones keeps opening the door to a QB controversy on his team, but no one else seems to be biting. Surely not head coach Jason Garrett. "You can make it as simple or as complex as you want to make it," Garrett told reporters at his weekly press conference. "It's pretty simple for us: Dak's going to play quarterback as we go forward." The pick: This game has been ‘flexed’ to a Sunday night start, the second straight for the Cowboys and easily the biggest spotlight Tampa Bay has played under in quite awhile. Tampa Bay is tied with the Atlanta Falcons in the NFC South but is staring at a tough close to the regular season with a trip to New Orleans and a home game against the “what have we got to lose” Carolina Panthers after the visit to Dallas. I noted above just how well the Tampa Bay defense has played lately plus the Dallas D comes in allowing 18.3 PPG (5th) on the season. Two young QBs take the field in this “big game” in “Big D.” The Under is a 10* play.
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12-18-16 | Nets v. 76ers UNDER 216.5 | Top | 107-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: The 7-18 Brooklyn Nets are in Philadelphia tonight to take on the 6-20 Sixers, as the two worst teams in the Eastern Conference square off for the first time this season. The Nets have dropped three of four, as well as their last eight on the road, while the 76ers have lost 10 of 12 overall and their last eight at home. Brooklyn: The Nets fell in Orlando on Friday night, 118-111, despite 22 points from Brook Lopez (20.2 & 5.3) and 17 from Jeremy Lin. Lin (14.6 & 5.9 APG) was playing in only his seventh game of the season, and his second since Nov. 2, after missing 17 games because of a strained hamstring and another with back tightness. Sean Kilpatrick (16.2) and Bojan Bogdanovic (15.2) have also been steady scorers for the Nets but the real issue lies on the defensive end of the court, as the Nets allow a league-worst 114.6 PPG. Philadelphia: The 76ers are tied with Dallas for the NBA's worst record but as most know, have stockpiled young talent in recent drafts but without much luck. Joel Embiid, the third overall pick in 2014, has finally established himself after missing two seasons following two foot surgeries, as he leads the 76ers, and NBA rookies, in scoring (17.5), rebounding (7.3) and blocked shots (2.5). In the meantime, Jahil Okafor, the third overall pick in 2015, is scoring at an 11.7 point-per-game clip in 22 games.Then there is Nerlens Noel (the 6th pick of the 2013 draft), who underwent minor knee surgery late in October and missed the first 23 games. He’s played just 18 minutes in two games with 10 points and five rebounds. "I just want to be on the court playing basketball," Noel said after the 100-89 loss. "I don't really care who I'm playing with. I'm not an eight-minute player, so I don't know what that's about."So I don't care where. ... I think I'm too good to be playing eight minutes. ... That's crazy. Need to figure this (crap) out." Of course, we can’t forget Ben Simmons, the last draft’s No. 1 pick, who is what else, hurt. The pick: The teams split four meetings last season with the home team winning each time. That could be the story in this year’s series as well but in this one, I say The Under is a 10* play.
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12-18-16 | Raiders v. Chargers UNDER 49.5 | Top | 19-16 | Win | 100 | 73 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: The 10-3 Oakland Raiders travel to San Diego to take on the 5-8 Chargers. A win on Sunday and the Raiders would end a 14-year playoff drought by clinching a playoff berth for eth first time since playing in the Super Bowl following the 2002 season. The Chargers won't be part of the playoffs in 2016, missing for the third straight season and sixth time in the past seven years, plus the franchise also faces an unclear future. San Diego voters shot down a stadium proposal last month and the team moved closer to a relocation to Los Angeles on Wednesday when NFL owners unanimously approved a tenant-lease contract between the Chargers and Los Angeles Rams. The Chargers have until Jan. 15 to exercise an option to move to Los Angeles. Team president Dean Spanos has repeatedly stated he won't announce a decision until the season in over. Oakland: The Raiders lost their Week 14 Thursday night showdown in KC 21-13 to the Chiefs but remain tied for first place in the AFC West and have a two-game lead in the wild-card chase with three games to play. Times have sure changed since QB Derek Carr’s rookie season of 2014, when the Raiders opened with 10 straight losses. "Starting 0-10 was not fun. It makes these moments so awesome," Carr told reporters. "It makes these moments really cool to already have 10 wins and those things. I know for our team, our sole focus is beating the Chargers because if we don't, we're still sitting there hoping and wishing. Our focus is just going down to San Diego and trying to come out with a win." The frigid conditions in KC plus Carr’s injured right pinkie finger produced Carr’s worst performance of the season, as he was 17-of-41 for 117 yards with no TDs but also no INTs. However, he’s thrown for 3,492 yards with a 245 ratio on the year for a 96.0 QB rating. A rejuvenated running game has been a big plus, as this year’s team averages 116.2 YPG to rank 6th. The defense remains a concern, despite receiving remarkable play from standout DE Khalil Mack, ranking 30th in yards allowed (384.5 YPG) and 23rd in points allowed (24. PPG). San Diego: The Chargers have wasted another “typical” Philip Rivers season, as he’s on pace to top 4,000 passing yards for the ninth time in 10 seasons and with 27 TD passes, should reach 30 TD passes in a season for the fifth time in that span. RB Melvin Gordon was the 15th pick of the 2015 draft but flopped big time last year, gaining just 641 yards rushing without a TD. He could be the comeback p-o-y in 2016 (997 rushing yards with 12 TDs, 10 on the ground) but he was carted off the field early last week with knee and hip injuries and will not play on Sunday. The pick: Rivers keeps plugging away but he’s running out of ‘weapons’ and I don’t see this game being played out at all like the first meeting between these teams, when the Raiders won 34-31 in Week 5. Rivers has been intercepted a league-worst 17 times and was personally responsible for five turnovers in last Sunday’s loss to the Panthers, three on interceptions and two strip-sack fumbles. The Chargers have an NFL-worst 30 giveaways and Oakland leads the NFL with a plus-15 turnover margin. The Raiders are 5-1 SU on the road this year (losing at KC was their first road ‘hiccup’) and with so much on the line, figure to be tight. The Under is a 10* play.
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12-17-16 | Arkansas State v. Central Florida OVER 50 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: The Sun Belt’s Arkansas State (7-5) will meet 6-6 Central Florida of the AAC in the Cure Bowl, played at Camping World Stadium in Orlando. UCF went 0-12 in 2015 but won six of its first 10 games this season under first-year coach Scott Frost before losing to Tulsa and South Florida. Meanwhile, Arkansas State began the season 0-4, including a 51-14 loss to Auburn, before winning seven of its last eight to gain a share of the school’s fifth Sun Belt Conference title in six years. Arkansas State: The Red Wolves are led by sophomore QB Justice Hansen, who did not open the season as the starter but has completed 58.9% for 2,514 yards with 16 TDs and 8 INTs (10-2 ratio over the team's last six games). He has a variety of weapons at his disposal as five receivers have accumulated 300 yards but the running game is not a big help, averaging 146.2 YPG to rank 102nd. However, the defense is very good, allowing 22.2 PPG (24th), In fact, defensive end Ja'Von Rolland-Jones was the Sun Belt Conference's overall Player of the Year! "I think any time a defensive player is picked as Player of the Year it's a little bit surprising," Wolves head coach Blake Anderson said. "It doesn't happen that often." He’s right about that. Central Florida: The roller coaster ride for UCF since 2012 has been quite a story. The Knights went 10-4 with a bowl win in 2012, 12-1 with a an upset of Baylor (at plus-16) in the Fiesta Bowl in 2013 and then 9-4 with a bowl loss in 2014 (all under George O’Leary). However, the Knights went 0-12 in O’Leary’s final season (2015), which brought Scott Frost to Orlando and now back in the business of ‘bowling!’ McKenzie Milton is a true freshman from Hawaii and made nine starts at QB after taking over for senior Justin Holman. He is averaging almost 201 yards through the air with a modest nine TD passes and seven interceptions. The running game averages 151.9 YPG which ranks 96th but UCF does average 30.1 PPG. The defense, led by LB Shaquem Griffin (American Athletic Conference Defensive Player of the Year), allows 24.1 PPG (40th). The pick: The Red Wolves are playing in the sixth consecutive bowl game and for UCF’s 5th-year seniors, this will be their fourth bowl game. Both teams play good defense but ASU has seen its last three bowl games average 75.0 PPG and UCF has seen its last three bowl games average 70.0 PPG. That makes the Over an 8* play.
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12-17-16 | Coyotes v. Wild OVER 5 | Top | 1-4 | Push | 0 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: The 11-14-5 Arizona Coyotes wrap up a four-game road trip on Saturday afternoon in Minnesota and have to face one of the hottest teams (the 17-8-4 Wild) and maybe the hottest goaltender (Devan Dubnyk). Dubnyk, the league leader in goals-against average (1.62) and save percentage (.947) is 8-0-2 in his past 10 starts with a 1.65 GAA and .944 save percentage. The Coyotes have won three of four and two straight on this road trip after Thursday's 3-2 shootout win over Toronto, after dropping six in a row. Arizona: Despite the team’s recent “mini-surge,” the Coyotes’ 27 points leaves them in last place in the Pacific Division and only Colorado (23) has fewer points among all NHL teams. However, like the Wild, Arizona’s recent good play has had a lot to do with goaltending. Mike Smith made 44 saves in the team's 3-2 shootout win over Toronto on Thursday and he’s stopped 125 of 129 shots in that trio of wins in these last four games. "He was really good, excellent," head coach Dave Tippett said. "That's what you've seen from him the last little bit here. We're still giving up too many chances but he's been there to clean a lot of it up." He’s right about that, as Arizona is allowing a league-high 35.8 shots per game. Smith has played just 16 games due to a knee injury costing him a dozen potential starts but has faced 40 or more shots six times, which leads the NHL. Minnesota: The Wild’s 5-2 win in Nashville on Thursday night gives them a six-game winning streak, as well as picking up least a point in 11 of their last 12 games (8-1-3). Minnesota is also getting contributions team-wide, as the Wild boast an NHL third-best 13 players with 10 or more points. "We've got a solid team and a great goalie right now," said veteran Minnesota center Eric Staal who scored his eighth and ninth goals of the season on Thursday. "We got the job done, now we've got to keep going, big one on Saturday." The pick: This isn’t exactly a “big one” as Staal said but it looks as if Minnesota will try to beat the Coyotes without Dubnyk in net. "I'm playing (Saturday), so I'm looking forward to the start," the 26-year-old Kuemper (2-2-1) told the Minneapolis Star Tribune ahead of making his first start since Nov. 29. "It's awesome watching all the success (Dubnyk is) having and all the success the team is having. It's fun coming to the rink right now and I'm excited to get the chance to contribute to it." It may be “awesome” but Kuemper’s last start was also Minnesota’s last loss. Let me also note that Arizona is 7-2-2 in its last 11 visits to Xcel Energy Center in Minnesota. The Over is a 10* play..
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12-16-16 | Hawks v. Raptors OVER 213.5 | Top | 125-121 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: For the 12-13 Atlanta Hawks, the season has not gone as planned and Friday night they visit the Air Canada Centre to take on the 18-7 Toronto Raptors. Things can’t go any worse for Atlanta than its last visit, as back on Dec. 23, the Hawks lost 128-84 in Toronto with the 44-point margin of victory being the largest in Raptors' history. Atlanta: The Hawks lost center Al Horford to Boston via free agency and traded PG Jeff Teague. The biggest addition was center Dwight Howard and Atlanta promoted Dennis Schroder to be its staring PG. Howard (13.8 & 12.5) ranks among the league leaders in field-goal percentage (62.3) and rebounding and Schroder (16.5 & 6.3 APG) just set a career high with 13 assists in Atlanta’s last game, while averaging 21.6 points on 51.9 percent shooting in his past eight games. The Hawks continue to struggle after a 9-2 start to the season and while Schroder set a career high in assists the last time out, it came in a 131-120 home loss to Orlando, the highest point total against the Hawks since the Golden State Warriors scored 137 points on March 4, 2008. Toronto: While the Hawks are fading, DeMar DeRozan (28.0 PPG) continues to put up big numbers and the Raptors continue to win. DeRozan posted his 13th, 30-point game of the season in Wednesday’s 123-114 victory over Philadelphia, pushing Toronto 11 games above .500. The Raptors are third in the NBA in scoring at 111.9 per contest, while ranking second in both FG percentage (47.6%) and three-point percentage (39.9%). After a slow start, PG Lowry is hitting 44.2 percent of his shots from long range on the season, averaging 21.2 points and 7.3 assists per contest with a 2.6 assist-to-turnover ratio. The pick: The Raptors come in with victories in 10 of their last 11 games, lifting them to a 4 1/2-game lead over the New York Knicks in the Atlantic Division. Meanwhile, Tuesday’s loss to Orlando was Atlanta’s 11th loss in its past 14 games and the Hawks have fallen outside of the Eastern Conference’s top-eight. Expect the Raptors to control the flow of this game, as the Raptors are shooting an NBA-best 44.6 percent from three-point range in December, averaging 117.6 points per game this month. The Over is a 10* play.
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12-16-16 | Kings v. Penguins UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: The 15-12-2 LA Kings are in Pittsburgh to take on the 20-7-3 Penguins. The Penguins are riding a seven-game winning streak and are tied with the Rangers atop the Metropolitan Division with 43 points. LA’s No. 1 goaltender Jonathan Quick has missed most of the season because of a groin injury (he’s be out until around mid-February) and that has left the Kings just hanging around the playoff cutoff in the West. Los Angeles: Leading scorer Jeff Carter (14 goals, 24 points) criticized his team after the 6-3 loss at Buffalo on Tuesday, calling it “fragile,” and the Kings responded with a solid effort in Detroit. Los Angeles outshot the Red Wings 31-18 and got 17 saves from Jeff Zatkoff, who may face his former team with fellow goalie Peter Budaj sporting a .859 save percentage this month. Budaj was asked to pick up most of the slack with Quick out and maybe he was asked to do too much. He had started 25 of 26 games before former Pittsburgh backup Jeff Zatkoff started Thursday in Detroit. Pittsburgh: Goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury was Pittsburgh's franchise, go-to goalie for more than a decade. However, a concussion last spring opened the door for matt Murray, who backstopped the Penguins to the Stanley Cup. Murray has started a season-high four games in a row but Fleury is expected back in the Pittsburgh Penguins' net in the next two nights. A good guess would be Friday against the Los Angeles Kings, with back-to-back games on tap. The Penguins are averaging a robust 5.6 goals in December with captain Sidney Crosby (nine-game point streak) and fellow forward Evgeni Malkin (16 points, 10 games) leading the way. The pick: Whether it’s Fleury or Murray in net for the Penguins, don’t expect much to get past either one. As for the Pens, they can’t keep up this scoring barrage much longer. The Under is a 10* play.
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12-15-16 | Rams v. Seahawks OVER 38.5 | Top | 3-24 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: The 4-9 LA Rams visit Seattle to take on the 8-4-1 Seahawks for a Thursday night game. Both teams will play on a ‘short week’ with both coming off devastating Week 14 losses. The Seahawks lost to a red-hot Green Bay team 38-10 at Lambeau, while while the Rams got booed out of the LA Coliseum in their 42-14 home loss to the Atlanta Falcons. LA Rams: Sunday’s loss was the eighth in nine games for the Rams and the final straw for Rams head coach Jeff Fisher, who was was fired on Monday. "This is the right time to make a change as our performance has not lived up to my or our fans' expectations," Rams owner Stan Kroenke said in a team issued statement about Fisher's removal as head coach. "We all are focused on improving as an organization and building a team that makes Los Angeles proud. Our mission is to celebrate a Super Bowl title with our fans in Los Angeles. Today is the first step to bringing us closer to that goal." John Fassel, the Rams special teams coordinator, has been tabbed to close out the last three games as head coach. He made need to be a miracle worker. as the Rams rank last in points scored (14.9) and yards gained (286.2) Seattle: The Seahawks looked just horrible in two of their last three games, losing 14-5 at Tampa Bay in Week 12 and then 38-10 at Green Bay in Week 14. QB Wilson has seven INTs in those two losses and for the season, Seattle is averaging 21.1 PPG, down more than five points per game from last year. Seattle allowed 38 points to Green Bay but it’s hard to blame the defense when the team's offense turns it over SIX times! "When we turn the ball over like that, nothing feels right and you don't have a chance to get anything accomplished," head coach Pete Carroll said. "I know you want to know reasons. I don't know. We've been together for five years now and we haven't seen anything like that so it's a pretty unusual occurrence." The pick: It’s pretty common knowledge that the Rams inexplicably own three straight wins over the Seahawks, winning both games last season and won 9-3 at home during Week 2 of the this season. However, Seattle can clinch the NFC West title with a win in this game and is in a tight battle with the 9-4 Lions for the NFC’s No. 2 seed, which comes with a first-round bye. The Rams have often looked like a high school team this year and the NFL’s No. 1 overall pick, Jared Goff, just hasn’t looked ready for primetime. Yes, the Rams are averaging only 12 PPG their last seven but Seattle does seem to bring out the best in them. As for the Seahawks, expect a YUGE bounce-back effort by Wilson and the offense against an LA defense which has allowed more than 40 points (42 and 49, to be exact) in two of its last three games. This VERY low total is headed over. The Over is a 10* play.
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12-15-16 | Blackhawks v. Islanders OVER 5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: The 19-8-4 Chicago Blackhawks will take on the 11-12-5 NY Islanders tonight at Barclays Center. Chicago won 2-1 at MSG on Tuesday over the Rangers and sits comfortably atop the Central Division with 42 points. As for the Islanders, they are off a 4-2 Tuesday loss at home vs. the Capitals and languish at the bottom of the Metropolitan Division with 27 points, a whopping 16 points behind the first-place Penguins. Chicago: The Blackhawks appear primed to contend for their fourth Stanley Cup in the last eight seasons. Chicago leads the entire Western Conference, despite battling a litany of injuries to stars such as center Jonathan Toews, who missed nine games with a back injury before returning Tuesday, and goalie Corey Crawford, who underwent an appendectomy on Dec. 3. Crawford has yet to resume skating. In the six games since Crawford was sidelined, backup Scott Darling has allowed just eight goals while leading the Blackhawks to a 3-2-1 record. NY Islanders: The Islanders have been to the postseason the last two seasons but Stanley Cup hockey is only a dream for the current season and it’s not even Christmas. They play in the talent-rich Metropolitan Division and thus have little chance of sneaking into the playoffs. “It's frustrating, because you know the ability's there," head coach Jack Capuano said of the Islanders. who reached the Eastern Conference semifinals last spring for the first time since the 1992-93 season. "I don't know where it's gone. But I'm losing my patience a little bit with some of the guys." The pick: As noted, Chicago’s Darling has allowed just eight goals in the six games since replacing Crawford but I’m not convinced he isn't somewhat playing over his head. Expect the islanders to get a couple (a few?) past him here but as New York’s veteran netminder says about the team, "We find ways to lose games. We're not finding a way to win a game.” By the way, Jaroslav Halak, who has yielded 10 goals in his last two starts. the Over is a 10* play.
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12-14-16 | Flyers v. Avalanche UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: The 18-10-3 Flyers travel to Colorado to take on the 11-15-1 Avalanche. Philly’s 39 points has them tied for fourth-place in the highly-competitive Metropolitan Division but just two points out of a first-place tie! Meanwhile, Colorado’s 23 points leaves the Avalanche in last-place in the Western Conference’s Central Division and also with the fewest points of any team in the entire NHL. Philadelphia: The Flyers’ 41-27-14 (96 points) record last season allowed them to grab the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference last season, so the team was obviously hugely disappointed when it opened its first 12 games with a 9-10-3 record. However, the team has delivered a nine-game winning streak, catapulting the Flyers into contention in the Metropolitan Division and just as importantly, it has dragged them out of the mediocrity that plagued the early part of the season.Philadelphia is allowing an NHL fifth-most 2.97 goals per contest but has averaged 3.56 GPG during its winning streak. Colorado: The Avalanche have lost five straight at Pepsi Center and are a disappointing 4-8-1 at home on the season (the main reason they are last in the Central Division). However, Colorado goalie Semyon Varlamov will come into this game with a little more confidence. He allowed six goals on 16 shots in a brutal 10-1 loss at Montreal on Saturday but bounced back the very next night to make a season-high 51 saves in a 3-1 victory at Toronto. The pick: I can’t help but think that the Flyers are playing over their heads these days and I expect a low scoring game. The Under is a 10* play.
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12-14-16 | Lakers v. Nets UNDER 229 | Top | 97-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: The 10-17 LA Lakers are in Brooklyn tonight to the on the 6-17 Nets at Barclays Center. The Lakers won 125-118 at Staples Center (Nov. 15) over the Nets, as PG Russell had 32 points and PF Randle delivered a triple-double (17-14-10). Brooklyn PG Jeremy Lin missed that one and 16 others (Nets went 4-13 without him) with a strained left hamstring but he returned Monday night in a 122-118 loss to the Houston Rockets. LA Lakers: The Lakers know what’s it’s like to paly without their starting PG as well, as D'Angelo Russell missed 11 straight games and 12 of 13 contests with a sore knee. He will play his third game since returning to the court tonight, having played 17 minutes but shooting just 1-of-8 during Sunday's six-point loss to the New York Knicks. Russell scored 17 points in 20 minutes on Monday but that hardly mattered as the Lakers were pounded 116-92 at Sacramento by the Kings. LA’s top-four scorers are all guards with Williams (19.3) leading the way, followed by Russell (15.3 & 4.8 APG), Clarkson (14.6) and Young (13.2). Brooklyn. The Nets really need Lin (14.2 & 6.3 APG), as he’s their only true PG. Kilpatrick (16.1) and Bogdanovich (14.9) are true shooting guards, while center Lopez (20.1 & 5.1) leads the team in scoring. "It helps having Jeremy back," Brooklyn head coach Kenny Atkinson said. "It just organizes us. He had seven assists in 20 minutes. That's big. He knows where to get Brook (Lopez) the ball and when to get it. ... There's some real positives to take out of (the game) offensively." The pick: Both the Lakers (111.1 PPG allowed ranks 27th) and the Nets (115.2 PPG ranks 30th) are poor defensive teams but the over/under number has taken that into account. Brooklyn's lost 12 of 14 overall and the only way to win here is to play a little defense. With this high number it won’t take much to stay under. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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12-13-16 | Grizzlies v. Cavs OVER 201.5 | Top | 86-103 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: The Memphis Grizzlies have fought through numerous injuries to get to 17-8 and tonight visit Cleveland to take on the 17-5 Cavs. Memphis dominated the Golden State Warriors from start to finish this past Saturday and led by as many as 30 points before settling for a 110-89 trouncing, as all five starters scored in double digits. The Cavs suffered a little “mini-slump” when they lost three in a row from Nov. 29 through Dec. 2 but have rebounded by winning four in a row by averaging 118.0 PPG! Memphis: The Grizzlies keep winning despite missing Mike Conley (back), James Ennis (calf), Chandler Parsons (knee), Vince Carter (hip) and Brandan Wright (ankle). Parson has played just six games and Conley (19.2-3.5-5.7) last played Nov. 28 but the team is 6-1 without him. Memphis has not let up on the defensive end of the court, ranking third in points allowed (97.6 PPG), third in opponents’ FG percentage (43.1%) and fifth in three-point percentage (33.8%). The Grizzlies will carry a six-game winning streak into the Tuesday game at Quicken Loans Arena but they will be without center Marc Gasol (19.9 & 6.2), who will be held out simply to rest in what is a brutal stretch. Cleveland: The Cavs are riding their “Big 3” so far this season, as LBJ (25.0-7.7-9.1), Irving (23.9 & 4.7 APG) and Love (21.7 & 10.3) come close to matching the production of Golden St’s Durant, Curry and Thompson, although the Cavs don’t have a Draymond Green. James just received Sports Illustrated's Sportsperson of the Year and reached 7,000 career assists against the Hornets to become the first frontcourt player in NBA history to reach that figure. The 31-year-old also is the only player in NBA history to have 27,000 points, 7,000 rebounds and 7,000 assists The pick: As noted above, the Cavs have been unstoppable in their four-game winning streak, averaging 118.0 PPG. That’s about their average here at home, where they are 11-2 while averaging 115.2 PPG. without Gasoil, I see no way for the Grizzlies to slow this team and the Over is a 10* play.
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12-13-16 | Blackhawks v. Rangers OVER 5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -129 | 18 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: Excellent matchup tonight at Madison Square Garden as the 18-8-4 Chicago Blackhawks take on the 20-9-1- NY Rangers, just a few days removed from the Rangers beating the Blackhawks 1-0 (OT) in Chicago. Adding an interesting twist is the fact that both teams are facing some genuine goaltending issues. Chicago: The Blackhawks are missing a pair marquee players in captain Jonathan Toews (back), who has been out for the past nine games, plus defenseman Brent Seabrook (upper body), who has missed the past two contests and will not play here. Getting back to the goaltending situation, the Blackhawks have been riding backup goaltender Scott Darling with Corey Crawford out two to three weeks after an appendectomy. In five starts since taking over for Crawford, Darling is 2-2-1 and has allowed just seven goals. He has given up two goals on 83 shots in his past three starts. NY Rangers: The Rangers have a goaltending controversy for the first time in more than a decade. With Henrik Lundqvist struggling, head coach Alain Vigneault handed the reins to backup Antti Raanta for three consecutive starts. Raanta rewarded his coach's faith by going 3-0-0 with two shutouts, including one in Chicago on Friday, 1-0 (OT). Raanta then made 19 saves in a 5-0 home win against the New Jersey Devils on Sunday, to became the first Rangers goaltender since 2003 to record back-to-back shutouts. The pick: We can’t be sure which goalie Vigneault will choose but don’t expect another 1-0 outcome. While the Rangers have cooled off some, they remain the league’s highest scoring team (3.50 GPG) and Sunday’s five-goal outburst is more like it. The Over is a 10* play.
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12-12-16 | Nets v. Rockets UNDER 228 | Top | 118-122 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: The 6-16 Brooklyn Nets travel to Houston to take on the 17-7 Rockets, who are on a six-game winning streak. The Nets last played Saturday night in San Antonio and dropped to 1-9 on the road this season with a 130-101 loss. Brooklyn: The Nets continue to trudge on without PG Jeremy Lin (15.0 & 6.2 APG), who has been sidelined for 17 games with a left hamstring strain. It’s been “one of those years” for the Nets this season, as they have missed 50 games due to injury this season. First-year Brooklyn coach Kenny Atkinson is trying to build a winning culture and found some positive in Saturday's drubbing. "They were running it down our throats,” Atkinson told reporters. "But one thing that’s great is seeing a team like that and watching how they move the ball and how they share the ball, how quick their decisions are. It was good for us as a coaching staff and good for our players to kind of feel what it’s like. We hope one day we will try to imitate them." Frankly, I think he’s delusional. The Nets rank last in points allowed (114.9 PPG) and opponents re shooting 47.1%, which ranks 28th of 30 teams. Houston: The Rockets have made a habit of fast starts and pace the NBA in first-quarter scoring at 31.5 points per game, nearly a full point ahead of the Cavaliers who rank second averaging 30.8 points in the first quarter this season. Even on the second night of a back-to-back the Rockets found the energy to muster a 36-point first quarter against the Dallas Mavericks on Saturday night, a surge strong enough to carry them through lulls in the second and third periods en route to a 109-87 home victory. Harden (27.8-7.6-11.6) leads a group of five double digits scorers (from 12.1-to-17.0 PPG) which score more points than any tgream not named Golden St, at 111.6 PPG 946.7% shooting ranks 3rd). The return of Patrick Beverley (7.7-5.5-4.5) has been huge, as his impact has always been greater than his numbers. He’s the team's best perimeter defender and it’s not by accident that the Rockets are 11-2 since he returned to the lineup. The pick: The Nets not only limp in 1-9 on the road this season but also as losers of 11 of 13 overall, as well. Yes, they are an awful defensive team and the Rockets are one of the league’s best scoring teams but the over/number is high enough here to make the Under a 10* play.
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12-12-16 | Bruins v. Canadiens OVER 5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: The 15-12-2 Boston Bruins take on the 19-6-3 Montreal Canadiens on Monday in Montreal. The Bruins struggled at home last and have done so again this season, so being away from home may not be too bad. Then again. Montreal is 14-1-1 on home ice to open the season! Boston: Typical of the team's season, the Bruins lost 4-2 at home to lowly Colorado on Thursday and then lost 4-1 at home again Saturday night, to Toronto. The Bruins offense is averaging just 2.2 goals in six games thus far in December and on the season, is among the lowest scoring teams with just 69 goals for. Boston has scored more than three goals just twice in its past seven games, winning only one of those. The power play well has also run dry this month, with just one goal on 15 opportunities. Montreal: The Canadians have no such scoring woes. Montreal exploded for six goals in the first period en route to a 10-1 thrashing of the Colorado Avalanche on Saturday night. The Canadiens have scored at least four goals in three of their last four games. Nine of the 10 goals scored against Colorado were at even strength and every line contributed. The pick: The Bruins come in off consecutive home regulation losses to Colorado and Toronto and have managed only 15 goals in the last seven games despite finding a way to earn eight points (3-2-2) in that span. Goalie Tuukka Rask has been a big reason for that success but Boston’s goalie is only 5-15-3 in his career against Montreal. Yes, Corey Price of Montreal is a great goalie but the Canadiens are averaging 3.88 GPG at home and the Over is a 10* play in this one. |
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12-11-16 | Canucks v. Capitals OVER 5 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -113 | 17 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: The 12-14-2 Vancouver Canucks are currently on a five-game road swing along the East Coast and after losing 4-1 to Florida last night, jet up to Washington for a 5:00 ET start to take on the 16-7-3 Capitals. Washington is coming off a 4-1 win at Buffalo on Friday and returns home where the Caps are 10-4-0 on the season. Vancouver: Captain Henrik Sedin notched his sixth point in six games Saturday with an assist and trails his twin brother Daniel (19 points) by one for the team scoring lead. Vancouver is battling injuries between the pipes, as goaltender Ryan Miller is sidelined with a lower-body ailment suffered in Thursday's victory at Tampa Bay. Backup Jacob Markstrom started against the Panthers and made 38 saves but took the 4-1 loss. The Canucks are just 4-9-1 on the road so far this season. Washington: The Capitals have earned 35 points but that’s still just good enough for fifth place in the highly competitive Metropolitan Division. Washington is beginning to heat up offensively, having scored 11 goals combined in three straight victories.No. 1 netminder Braden Holtby figures to get the start Sunday, with each game critical for Washington thanks to its position in the red-hot Metropolitan Division. The pick: The road has not been kind to the Vancouver Canucks and an early start to the second game of a back-to-back against the Capitals, could leave them a step behind. Jacob Markstrom filled in for Miller on Saturday but rookie Thatcher Demko, could make his NHL debut on Sunday in this quick turnaround. Washington has beaten Vancouver four straight times and will likely make it five in a row here plus expect some scoring. The Over is a 10* play.
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12-11-16 | Vikings v. Jaguars OVER 39.5 | Top | 25-16 | Win | 100 | 42 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: The 6-6 Vikings try to somehow get their season back on track this Sunday, facing the Jacksonville Jags, who at 2-10, are suffering through another ‘lost’ year. Most know that the Vikes opened 5-0 SU & ATS but after a Week 6 bye, have gone 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS. The Jags opened with a three-game losing streak but followed with back-to-back wins. However, the season has gotten away from them once again, with seven consecutive losses (2-5 ATS). Minnesota: The Vikings’ running game has been non-existent all season, averaging 72.4 YPG to rank dead-last among all 32 teams (including a woeful 3.0 YPC average). Yes, Bradford has completed 72.4 percent with just three INTs but he’s also thrown just 13 TD passes in his 11 games, while the Vikings rank 25th in passing yards at 224.4 YPG. The defense ranks third in yards allowed (303.4) and 4th in points allowed (17.4) but time and time again Minnesota wastes excellent defensive outings. In fact, in the Vikings six losses this season, they have scored 10, 10, 16, 20, 13 and 15 points. Jacksonville: The Jags were optimistic heading into this season with Bortles coming off a strong season (35 TDs / 18 INTs) but this is a poorly coached team by Gus Bradley and it’s amazing he’s still on the sidelines. The Jags found a way to lose last Sunday despite holding the Denver Broncos to 206 yards of offense, fewest during Bradley's tenure. In this case, the Jags were done in by their offense, as QB Blake Bortles had three turnovers, including a crippling interception that was returned for a touchdown during the third quarter in a 20-10 defeat. Bortles can say he wants that "I think we're really close," but here’s a guy with 10 career wins and that “pick-6” last Sunday against Denver was the 11th interception returned for a TD of his career. As for head coach Gus Bradley, he’s about to complete his fourth season with the Jags and the team is 16-46 (.233), including going 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS at home in 2016. The pick: Minnesota has covered 29 of its last 39 games (that’s 74.4%) and while the Vikings have had trouble scoring away from home all season (16.7 PPG), the Jags find ways to allow opponents to run up points against them. Jacksonville allows just 311.3 YPG (4th) but allows 26.1 PPG (26th). Bortles leads the NFL in both interceptions (15) and turnovers (19) while the Jags’ defense owns a league-low three interceptions and have forced only five fumbles. There will be points in this one. The Over is a 10* play.
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12-09-16 | Suns v. Lakers UNDER 217.5 | Top | 119-115 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: Two struggling teams trying to find themselves meet Friday night at Staples Center, as the visiting Phoenix Suns (6-16) take on the 10-14 LA Lakers. The Suns have dropped three in a row and five of six, after a 109-94 setback at home against the Indiana Pacers on Wednesday. Phoenix is off to one of its worst starts in the past 20 years. The Lakers are on a four-game slide, after getting humiliating 134-95 at Houston on Wednesday, the third time they’ve lost by 30 or more points. Phoenix: Head coach Earl Watson is remaining positive, despite the team's early struggles. "We have a young group," Watson said after the loss. "We have to set the tone and identity on how we want to play. From now on, moving forward, defensively aggressive is how we have to play." phoenix owns a quality backcourt in Booker (19.0) and PG Bledsoe (18.8-5.8-5.0), backed up by Knight (13.0). SF T.J. Warren (17.7 & 4.3) is working on a breakout season. The Suns are a capable offensive team (105.7 PPG ranks 9th) but they allow 113.0 PPG, which ranks 29th of 30 teams. LA Lakers: Injuries continue to ravage the Lakers, as they remain without starting PG D'Angelo Russell (sore left knee), starting shooting guard Nick Young (calf strain, right leg), backup guard Jose Calderon (right hamstring strain) and reserve center/forward Tarik Black (right ankle sprain). None of the four is expected to be available against the Suns. The Lakers can score (when healthy) but like the Suns, are a terrible defensive team. LA allows 110.3 PPG (27th) and is dead-last in opposing teams' shooting (48.0 percent). The pick: These teams met back on Nov. 6 with the Lakers beating the Suns, 119-108. However, LA is minus too much ‘firepower’ these days for these two teams to match the kind of scoring we saw in early November. The Uner is an 8* play.
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12-09-16 | Rangers v. Blackhawks OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: Two of the NHL’s best square off Friday night in Chicago, when the 18-9-1 Rangers take on the 17-8-3 Blackhawks. The Rangers won 2-1 last night in Winnipeg to improve to 8-5-0 on the road and now visit the United Center where the Blackhawks are 11-2-2. NY Rangers: The Rangers opened with a 13-4-0 start to the season but last night’s win leaves them 5-5-1 over their last 11. Rangers goaltender Henrik Lundqvist is expected to be in goal after being given the night off against the Jets. Lundqvist is 12-8-1 with a 2.55 GAA and a .912 save percentage this season. In his career against Chicago, he is 6-2-2 with a 2.19 GAA and a .925 save percentage. New York leads the league with 99 goals this season, an average of 3.54 goals per game. Michael Grabner has a team-leading 13 goals, while Rick Nash and Kevin Hayes have 11 goals apiece. Chicago: The Blackhawks continue to make do without captain Jonathan Toews, who has been out since Nov. 23 with a back injury. Patrick Kane leads the team in points with 27, while Artem Anisimov and Artemi Panarin have posted 23 points apiece. Scott Darling has fulfilled his role as Corey Crawford's backup without complaint these last two-plus seasons and his recent success as Crawford's injury replacement has reinforced the faith of his coaches and teammates. Darling will make his fourth consecutive start as Crawford recovers from an emergency appendectomy. He has posted a .940 save percentage in his last three outings and is 8-5-2 with a 2.39 goals-against average and .919 save percentage this season. The pick: Two quality goaltenders will not be enough to keep this one under, as the rangers average 3.38 GPG on the road and the Blackhawks average 3.40 GPG at home. The Over is a 10* play.
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12-08-16 | Blazers v. Grizzlies UNDER 205 | Top | 86-88 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: The 12-11 Trail Blazers lost 115-107 in Milwaukee last night, just the second defeat in the team’s last six games. However, the Trail Blazers dropped to 5-7 on the road this season, as they continue a six-game road trip tonight in Memphis against the 15-8 Grizzlies. Memphis has been shorthanded for some time now but through it all, the Grizzlies have won four in a row and 10 of 13. Portland: The Blazers saw the end of a three-game win streak last night in Milwaukee, as they allowed the Bucks to shoot 51.9 percent from the floor, including 10 for 24 from three-point range. Portland was outscored 34-18 in the third quarter and then committed nine, fourth-quarter turnovers with Milwaukee adding another 30 points. "We're not a really good team right now," Portland head coach Terry Stotts told the media afterward. “We're finding our way." Don’t blame PG Damian Lillard, who continued his offensive tear with 30 points, seven rebounds and six assists. He’s averaging 28.0-5.0-5.on the season, teamed with backcourt mate C.J. McCollum (22.0-3.7-3.8), who matched his career high with 37 points in 100-94 Portland win on Nov. 6 in Memphis. Portland’s problem has been finding a third or fourth scoring option plus a defense which has allowed 112.5 PPG, to rank 28th. Memphis: The Grizzlies have been ravaged by injuries. Veteran PG Mike Conley is out for at least another month with a lower back injury, SF Chandler Parsons has been out since Nov. 18 with a knee injury that will keep him sidelined for at least another week plus reserves like SF James Ennis (calf), SG Vince Carter (hip) and PF Brandan Wright (ankle) are also sidelined. Veteran PF Zach Randolph just returned to the team Tuesday after a seven-game absence following the death of his mother on Thanksgiving Day. He came off the bench for 12 points and 14 rebounds in a 96-91 victory over Philadelphia. The Grizzlies may be winning but they struggle offensively, averaging 98.0 PPG (26th) on 42.2% shooting (29th). Defense has been the key, allowing 98.4 PPG (4th) on 43.7% shooting (6th). The pick: The Grizzlies are getting used to playing with Conley and allow 14.1 points less per game than the Blazers. In 12 home games so far this season, Memphis allows a modest 95.0 PPG. Despite McCollum’s 37-point outburst the last time Portland visited Memphis (11/6), that game stayed under 200 points (194) and that makes the Under a 10* play here. |
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12-08-16 | Rangers v. Jets OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: The 17-9-1 NY Rangers, who hail from the NHL’s largest population base, will be in Winnipeg (playing in its smallest population base), to take on the 13-3-3 Jets. The Rangers have more than 90 years of history, while the Jets, at least in the team’s most recent incarnation, have just five. NY Rangers: New York’s fast start has deteriorated into losing six of its past 10 games, while continuing to add players to the injured list. Forwards Matt Puempel and Rick Nash were hurt in Tuesday’s 4-2 loss to the Islanders, forcing the Rangers to play with only 10 forwards for the final 33 minutes in falling to 4-5-1 since a 13-4-0 start. Losing Nash to a groin injury is another blow to the NHL’s highest-scoring team (97 goals), as he had 18 points (11 goals) in 27 games and had points in three of his past four contests Winnipeg: The Jets have been relying heavily this season on super rookie Patrik Laine, who not only leads all first-year players with 17 goals but is tied with Sidney Crosby atop the NHL goal-scoring list. The Jets are 4-1-1 in their past six games but let a point slip away Tuesday at home, losing an early 3-1 lead in falling 4-3 in a shootout to Detroit. The pick: Henrik Lundqvist did not give up more than three goals in any of his first 15 appearances of the season but has allowed four goals in three of his past six contests. He hasn't cracked the top-10 in goals against average, save percentage, win and shutouts this season. Backup Antti Raanta will get the start. The Rangers average 3.50 GPG on the road, while Winnipeg averages 3.14 GPG at home. That combo spells O-V-ER! Make it a 10* play.
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12-07-16 | Wild v. Maple Leafs UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: The 12-8-4 Minnesota Wild will take on the 10-9-5 Toronto Maple Leafs, who have played well at home this season, going 8-3-0. The Wild conclude a five-game trip with this visit to Air Canada Centre, having gone 1-1-2 during the first four games. Minnesota: Wild captain Mikko Koivu scored 3:11 into overtime in Sunday's 2-1 win over Edmonton to cap a memorable game in which he won 21 of 23 draws in the faceoff circle. The Wild have held their own in road games, going 5-5-4. When the trip ends after this contest, Minnesota will have played five more games on the road than at home. The key for the Wild is the goaltender of Devan Dubnyk, who leads the NHL with a save percentage of .945, in shutouts with four and is second in goals-against average at 1.63. "He has given us a chance every night," Wild head coach Bruce Boudreau said. "He's been spectacular." Toronto: The Maple Leafs are pleased with their starting goaltender, Frederik Andersen (10-6-4, 2.86 GAA and .913 save percentage, who played for Boudreau with the Anaheim Ducks. However, are searching for a reliable backup. Toronto Maple Leafs return home from a three-game road trip for this game and as noted above, have been a strong home team this season, which Wild coach Boudreau is well aware of. "I've watched their home games, and when they're on, you'd better be ready to play," Boudreau said Tuesday. "They're going to be very good, very soon. It's not going to take too long for these guys to be extremely good." The pick: Toronto goalie Andersen had some early struggles but owns a 1.85 goals-against average and .938 save percentage in his last seven outings. Add that to Dubnyk’s league-best .945 save percentage an a 10* play on the Under makes sense.
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12-06-16 | Bulls v. Pistons OVER 199.5 | Top | 91-102 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: The 11-9 Chicago Bulls are coming off a 112-110 home loss to Portland last night and head out on the road to take on the 11-1 Detroit Pistons, tonight. The Pistons welcomed PG Reggie Jackson back in their last game and after missing the team's first 21 games with left knee tendinitis, he had 18 points and four assists in 23 minutes. However, his effort was not enough, as the Pistons saw their three-game winning streak snapped with a 98-92 loss to the Magic in Detroit on Sunday. Chicago: The Bulls played last night’s game with PG Rajon Rondo suspended for one game for conduct detrimental to the team, reportedly for a verbal altercation with assistant coach Jim Boylan. Rondo, who served his seventh suspension since 2012, apologized for his actions and coach Fred Hoiberg said there are no hard feelings. "Rajon, as we've all said, has been great," Hoiberg told the Chicago Tribune. "A great teammate. I've enjoyed the relationship that we've developed, and ... it's not going to change moving forward." I wonder if any sane person buys that? The Bulls have a “new look” this year but so far the team hasn’t shown too many signs of being much better than last year’s 42-20 team which just missed the postseason. Detroit: Getting Jackson back in true “playing shape” will be important. "It's going to take some time to get acclimated with my teammates again, but (the knee) felt good," Jackson said. "I just wished we came out with a win. I felt like I was behind others in game shape and little aspects like that. I think in defensive coverage and rotations, I was a little rusty, and then just finding guys a little bit quicker. But offensively, I felt pretty good." The Pistons are scoring about like they did last season, 100.0 PPG this year compared to 102.2 last year, but it’s a higher scoring league so far this season (Pistons rank 24th in scoring). However, the Pistons are playing defense much better, cutting four PPG off last year’s average and with scoring up, Detroit's 97.0 PPG average places them second. The pick: Jackson averaged 23.5 points and 7.5 assists last season against the Bulls, as the Pistons won the season series, 3-1. Detroit has played well at home so far (7-3) and catches the Bulls off a 112-110 home loss last night. The Bulls need to tighten up their defense after a number of poor performances. They allowed Portland to shoot 48.4 percent last night and over their last three, are allowing 108.0 PPG. Wade (19.9-4.3-3.1) had 34 points last night but Chicago head coach Fred Hoiberg said that the plan is for Wade to play in Detroit despite the team's recent practice of resting their veteran star in the second half of back-to-backs (Wade has sat out the last two back-to-back finales). We know Jimmy Butler (25.7-6.7-4.1) won’t being sitting out, as he has scored exactly 26 points in four of his last five games and has at least 20 in a career-best 14 consecutive contests. The Over is a 10* play.
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12-06-16 | Rangers v. Islanders OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 110 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: The NY Rangers are 17-8-1 to lead the eight-team Metropolitan Division with 35 points. Meanwhile, the NY Islanders are 9-10-5 and their 23 points leave them in last-place. The Rangers are the NHL’s highest scoring team (95 goals) and own the league’s best differential (plus-30) but even though this is a first vs. worst matchup, there is never any shortage of drama when the Rangers and Islanders and New York Rangers meet, as they do tonight at Barclays Center in Brooklyn. NY Rangers: Yes, the Rangers are in first place but head coach Alain Vigneault has expressed concern with his club's recent inconsistent ways. "We're like all the teams," Vigneault told reporters. "We need our goaltender to be one of our best players and we need our other best players, whether they are Ds or forwards, to play at the level they're supposed to." The Rangers have alternated wins with losses in each of their last seven games and are 4-4-1 in their last nine. Despite being in first place, they are just six points ahead of the Boston Bruins and Washington Capitals, who are tied for the final wild-card spot in the East. NY Islanders: After reaching the second round of the playoffs last spring for the first time since 1993, the Islanders had high expectations this season. However, they enter Tuesday not only last in the Metropolitan Division but their 23 points are the lowest of any team in the entire eastern Conference. The Islanders crawled on to the periphery of the race by winning three straight games but then came Sunday's 4-3 OT loss at home to the Red Wings. The Islanders are just 1-for-14 on the power play over the past six games but they have killed all 13 penalties in that span. The pick: The Islanders will host the Rangers for the first time this season on Tuesday. "They're always a lot of fun," Islanders center and captain John Tavares said of the games against the Rangers. "Never any love lost in these games, so easy to get up for." As noted above, the Rangers have been inconsistent at best as of late while the Islanders have rebounded from an ugly stretch in which they dropped 11 of 14 contests. They are currently riding a four-game point streak (3-0-1) after Sunday's 4-3 overtime loss to Detroit and have scored 11 goals (3.67 per) in their last three. The Rangers are averaging a league-best 3.65 GPG and the Over is a 10* play in this one.
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12-05-16 | Coyotes v. Blue Jackets UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: The 8-11-4 Arizona Coyotes will play at Columbus tonight and the 14-5-4 Blue Jackets own the fewest regulation losses in the league. Columbus entered the league back in 2000 but has reached the postseason just twice, getting eliminated in the opening round each time. However, it may not be too early to say that the Blue Jackets are the biggest surprise team in the NHL and appear to have the pieces to get in the playoffs and to stick around for a while. Arizona: The playoffs are something Arizona isn’t likely to see in 2016-17, as the Coyotes are currently last in the Pacific Division, just one point ahead of the Colorado Avalanche at the bottom of the entire Western Conference. Arizona is in the middle of a stretch of four games in six days and will be looking to avoid its fourth straight loss. "We're trying to be as competitive as we can," coach Dave Tippett told the Arizona Republic. "We're scratching and clawing trying to get points. We feel like we're in every game." Don’t blame M goalie Mike Smith for Arizona's woes. He stopped a career-best 58 shots Saturday, the third time in four games that he's faced at least 40 shots. "Frustrating would be a good word but it's even worse than that right now," Smith said. "At some point, you'd like to see your team move forward and take steps in the right direction to start having your chance to win hockey games. It seems like once we take one step forward we're taking a couple back. It's tough to play like that in this league and expect to come out and win hockey games." Columbus: The Blue Jackets' play has turned heads to be sure. Columbus is averaging 3.13 goals per game, just barely ahead of the defending Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins and trailing only the New York Rangers. The Blue Jackets have lost in regulation just once in their last 11 contests and own the second-best goal differential in the league at plus-21, as they've climbed into third place in the Metropolitan Division, trailing Pittsburgh for second by only one point. Head coach John Tortorella has been getting balanced scoring at home. Four players each have totaled at least 10 points in Columbus, Cam Atkinson (15), Alexander Wennberg (12), Zach Werenski (12) and Nick Foligno (11). Scott Hartnell and Brandon Saad added nine points apiece. Goalie Sergie Bobrovsky is 11-2-1 with a 1.96 goals-against average, a .930 save percentage and two shutouts in his last 14 games. The pick: The Blue Jackets have dominated the Coyotes in a three-game winning streak over Arizona, scoring 15 goals. However, Arizona goalie Mike Smith is hot (see above), as is Columbus’ Sergie Bobrovsky. The Under is an 8* play. |
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12-04-16 | Bucs v. Chargers UNDER 47.5 | Top | 28-21 | Loss | -105 | 120 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: The Tampa Bay Bucs have won three in a row and at 6-5, are just one game back of the Atlanta Falcons in the NFC South. The Bucs have played some of their best ball on the road this year, going 4-1 SU & ATS away from home. The 5-6 San Diego Chargers find themselves in the brutally tough AFC West, where the Raiders are 9-2, the Chiefs 8-3 and the defending champion Broncos 7-4. Finding a path to the postseason seems most unlikely. Tampa Bay: The Bucs have pulled off two straight upset wins, first 19-17 at Kansas City (plus-7 1/2 points) and then last Sunday at home, 14-5 over Seattle as a 2 1/2-point home dog. Tampa Bay’s defense is allowing 24.0 PPG (19th) on 369.3 YPG (24th) but after the team's 1-3 start when it forced just two turnovers, the Bucs have recorded 18 takeaways in their last seven games and have a 5-2 mark to show for it. QB Jameis Winston’s completed 21 of 28 passes against Seattle with two TD passes, which means he’s now stretched his streak to 27 straight games with at least one rushing or passing TD to begin his career. Both TD throws went to WR Mike Evans, who ranks third in receptions (73) and second in receiving yards (1,020) on the season. RB Doug Martin (1,402 rushing yards last year) is starting to regain his health and had his best game since returning to the field last Sunday, gaining 87 yards San Diego: When asked about San Diego QB Rivers, Tampa Bay head coach Dirk Koetter said, "What I see on film is a top-flight NFL quarterback. This guy's a heck of a player, very accurate, great anticipation, full command of their system, gets them in the right play, a lot of calls at the line of scrimmage, incredible touch, tough as nails. That guy's a really good player." Rivers is completing 62.9% for 271.5 YPG with 23 TDs and 12 INTs. He’s on pace to top 4,000 passing yards for the eighth time in the last nine seasons and on pace to throw 33 TD passes. RB Melvin Gordon was San Diego’s 1st-round pick last year but flopped badly, rushing for just 641 yards (on 3.5 YPC) while not scoring a single TD. He’s got 908 rushing yards this season and has nine rushing TDs while adding two more TDs on 37 catches! The pick: San Diego was 9th in total yards last year (371.8 YPG) but weren’t able to translate that into points, averaging only 20.0 PPG (25th). However, the team has worked that out here in 2016, gaining a similar amount of yards per game (361.1) but the 2016 Chargers are scoring 28.8 PPG to rank 4th. This is “last stand” time for the Chargers (maybe the season is already lost?) but I’m not quite convinced the Bucs are up to winning four in a row or can keep up their fine play on the road. The Bucs have scored just 33 points the last two weeks, while allowing only 22 points and while they are forcing TOs, the Chargers are vulnerable in that department, as their 23 giveaways are the most in the NFL. A low scoring game will be the outcome in this one. The Under is a 10* play. |
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12-04-16 | Chiefs v. Falcons UNDER 49.5 | Top | 29-28 | Loss | -110 | 117 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: The 8-3 KC Chiefs sit one game back of the 9-2 Raiders in the AFC West while Atlanta’s 7-4 record in the NFC South is good enough to give the Falcons a one-game lead over the Tampa Bay Bucs. The banged up Chiefs had to play 75 minutes last Sunday night in Denver but did come away with a 30-27 OT win, when the game-winning FG caromed in off the left upright on the game’s final play. Meanwhile, the Falcons beat the Cardinals 38-17 in Atlanta last Sunday in impressive fashion. Kansas City: The Chiefs’ offense has struggled most of the season thanks in large part to a rash of injuries to its RBs and now its WRs. The Chiefs had scored just one offensive TD over their previous three games heading into last Sunday’s game in Denver, averaging only 18.7 PPG in that span. The team had one offensive TD, 10 FGs and one “pick six” over that three-game span but managed 30 points against Denver, despite gaining only 273 yards (an 86-yard KO return TD sure helped). The Chiefs are ranked No. 27 in total yards (328.3 per) and have scored just 20 TDs, averaging 22.9 PPG (16th). Kansas City only makes the top half of the league numbers in only two areas; interception percentage (only four in 402 attempts) and on fourth-down conversions (77.8 percent). The defense allows 381.9 YPG (28th) but with an NFL-leading 24 takeaways, is allowing 19.5 PPG, which ranks 8th. Atlanta: The Falcons have been at or near the top of most offensive categories all season and currently checks in leading the NFL in scoring (32.5 PPG) on 411.5 YPG (3rd). Atlanta's offensive success has been built around QB Matt Ryan (303.1 YPG passing / 26 TDs / 6 INTs / 114.3 QB rating), WR Julio Jones (65 catches for an NFL-best 1,140 yards) and RB Devonte Freeman (998 offensive yards as a runner-receiver with 7 TDs, including 729 yards rushing). Ryan’s had a terrific season and it’s sure helped that the same five offensive linemen have started each game. However, defense is another issue, as the Falcons are allowing 27.5 PPG (29th). The pick: The Chiefs are in a brutally tough spot here, off that dramatic OT win last Sunday night in Denver and a game with Oakland coming up next week. However, they enter having won six of seven and quite remarkably, 19 of 23 regular and postseason games dating to October 2015. The Falcons have under-preformed at home this year (3-2 SU & ATS) and I expect the Chiefs to get them into a much lower scoring game than the over/under number indicates. The Under is an 8* play. |
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12-03-16 | Nuggets v. Jazz OVER 199 | Top | 98-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: The 7-12 Denver Nuggets could do nothing to contain Houston's offense in a 128-110 loss to the Rockets Friday night in Denver and now travel to Salt Lake City to take on the 11-9 Utah Jazz, who are coming off a 111-100 home loss to Miami Thursday night, as injuries are becoming an early season ‘broken record!’ Denver: The Nuggets caught the Rockets playing less than 24 hours after having ended Golden State’s 12-game winning streak the night before in Oakland (a great situational spot!) but seven Houston players scored in double figures, led by James Harden’s modest 20 points. The Rockets shot 50.6 percent from the floor and had 25 assists on 45 made FGs. Playing poor defense is nothing new for Denver, as the Nuggets have held just four opponents under 100 points this season and are now allowing 109.7 PPG on the season (27th), after allowing 115.8 points per game over their last six. Utah: George Hill (20.2 PPG) and Rodney Hood (16.1 PPG) both sat out on Thursday night because of injuries, so Jazz head coach Quin Snyder was forced to trot out his 11th different starting lineup in 20 games. Utah allowed 64 points in the paint, the most it has given up to any opponent this season, in Thursday’s loss with Snyder suggesting his team was too soft and lackadaisical when it counted after allowing the Heat to do whatever they wanted around the basket."You can point to certain things but, by the time we woke up defensively, it was late and we had to expend a lot of energy," Snyder said. "You put yourself in a tough position. We lacked physicality critically in the first half." The pick: I realize that Utah ranks first in points allowed (94.6 PPG) and first in opponents’ FG percentage (42.3%) but the Jazz have both scored and allowed 100-plus points in each of their last three games. Those three finals have averaged 219.0 PPG. The Over is a 10* play. |
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12-03-16 | San Diego State v. Wyoming UNDER 63 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 100 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: San Diego State closed last season on a 10-game winning streak and sat at 9-1 (6-0 in MWC play) when it visited Laramie to play Wyoming back on Nov. 19. The Aztecs had won 19 of 20 games entering that contest and after a back and forth contest, scored on the game’s final play of regulation. SDSU chose to go for two and the win but lost 34-33. Then came an embarrassing 63-31 home los to Colorado St. but the Aztecs get a chance for redemption, as well as a second straight MWC title, Saturday night back in Laramie. Wyoming comes in 8-4 in head coach Craig Bohl’s third season. The Cowboys went 4-8 in his first season and a woeful 2-10 last year, so it’s been quite a turnaround in 2016! San Diego State: The Aztecs have a mediocre QB in Christian Chapman, who has 19 TDs and just five INTs but also has just 1,781 passing yards. However, RB Donnel Pumphrey has 1,908 yards this year (6.3 YPC and 15 TDs) and with two games left in his career, should wind up No. 3 on the all-time NCAA career rushing list, behind only Tony Dorsett and Ron Dayne. Pumphrey’s backfield partnet, Penny, has 878 rushing yards on 8.0 YPC with nine TDs. SDSU averages 275.9 YPG on the ground to rank 7th. The defense let the Aztecs down in it’s the season’s last two games (34 points to Wyoming and 63 to Colorado St.) but the unit checks in 19th in points allowed (20.8 per) on 318.9 YPG (11th). Wyoming: The Cowboys thought they would have to beat the Lobos last weekend but ‘backed in’ to the division title when Boise St. lost 27-20 at Air Force on the Friday after Thanksgiving. Therefore, Wyoming’s 56-35 loss at New Mexico last Saturday didn’t cost them an appearance in this game. QB Allen threw for 2,738 yards (23 TDs and 11 INTs) this season and led by RB Brian Hill (1,674 yards on 5.5 YPC with 21 TDs), the running game averages 218.9 YPG. However, while the offense scores 38.2 PPG, the defense pretty much gives it all back, allowing 35.5 PPG. The pick: San Diego State won last year’s MWC championship on its home field but doing so here in Laramie figures to be another story. After all, Wyoming is 6-1 SU and 5-1 ATS and still comes in as about a TD underdog. I believe SDSU is the better team and both teams rely on their running games and I’m looking for a much lower scoring game than we saw on this field back on Nov. 19th. The Under is an 8* play. |
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12-03-16 | Blackhawks v. Flyers OVER 5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -140 | 4 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: The 16-6-3 Chicago Blackhawks come in on a 3-0-1 run while the 12-10-3 Philadelphia Flyers have won three in a row. Both teams are coming off overtime wins on Thursday night, the Blackhawks getting a game-winner from Marian Hossa against the New Jersey Devils and the Flyers getting an overtime winner from Claude Giroux in a two-goal performance. Chicago: Jonathan Toews did not make the trip to Philadelphia and will miss his fifth straight game for the Blackhawks. Chicago has opted to take a cautious approach with the ailing back of the team's captain. "At this point, with the amount of games left in the season, it's not something (you want) to continuously deal with, if you're going to aggravate it and it's going to keep coming back to haunt you," Toews told the Chicago Sun-Times of the injury he sustained on Nov. 23 in San Jose. "So it's tough right now to pull back and do less than you know you can, but in the long run, you're trying to make sure you get back to 100 percent." Chicago goaltender Corey Crawford (12-6-2) is expected to make his 21st start of the season (12-6-2 with a 2.27 GAA and .927 save percentage). |
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12-02-16 | Canadiens v. Sharks OVER 5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
\ The set-up: The 16-5-2 Montreal Canadiens are atop the Atlantic Division and continue a three-game trek in California tonight, taking on the 14-9-1 San Jose Sharks. San Jose enters play with a three-point lead over Anaheim and the Edmonton Oilers in the Pacific Division, as it returns home looking for its sixth win in seven games, after beating the Kings 4-1 on Wednesday in Los Angeles. Montreal: The Canadiens jumped out to a 13-1-1 start, scoring at least three goals in all but two games. Five players (Weber, Galchenyuk, Radulov, Pacioretty, and Byron) combined for 23 goals and 40 assists. However, over their last eight contests, the offense has dried up as Montreal has gone 3-4-1 and been held to two goals or less six times. The five players who powered the Habs' offense early on have totaled 10 goals and 12 assists since their hot starts. The lack of offense was evident again Tuesday night when the Canadiens opened the California portion of their five-game road trip with a 2-1 loss to the Ducks. San Jose: The Sharks have allowed just eight goals in its last six outings (5-1-0) and are beginning to look more like the team that won the Western Conference in 2015-16. Goalie Martin Jones (12-8-1, 2.04 GAA, .921 SP) has played a big part in San Jose’s surge while limiting four of his last five opponents to one goal or fewer. “He’s one of the top goalies in the league,” Sharks coach Peter DeBoer told reporters. “He’s just getting better. You’re just seeing the tip of what he’s capable of.” The pick: Montreal last won in San Jose back on Nov. 23, 1999. The Canadiens are 0-7-2 in San Jose since then, having been outscored 37-17. Corey Price is 13-2-1 with a 1.68 goals-against average, .947 save percentage and two shutouts this season but he’s 0-3-1 over four career starts in San Jose with a GAA just under four. The Over is a 10* play. |
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12-02-16 | Colorado v. Washington OVER 57.5 | Top | 10-41 | Loss | -112 | 77 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: Washington (11-1) is No. 4 in the current CFP rankings but knows a win over No. 9 Colorado (10-2) does bot guarantee the Huskies a spot in CFB’s ‘Final 4.’ There was a lot of talk last Tuesday (when the rankings were released) about Washington’s pathetic non-conference strength of schedule, with wins over Rutgers (2-10 overall and 0-9 in the Big Ten), Idaho of the Sun Belt (7-4 overall) and over Portland St, an FCS school. The Buffs have zero ‘Final 4 ‘ aspirations but have to be thrilled with the team's worst to first in the Pac-12 South turnaround in 2016. Colorado: Mike MacIntyre’s Colorado team set a conference record with its seven-game conference improvement, going from 1-8 in 2015 to 8-1 in 2016. MacIntyre was an easy choice for Pac-12 coach of the year, as the Buffaloes had gone 2-25 in Pac-12 games in his first three seasons at Boulder. QB Sefo Liufau missed three starts due to a midseason ankle injury but still ranks fourth in Pac-12 total offense (263.3 YPG), completing 64.6 percent with 11 TDs and 3 INTs. RB Phillip Lindsay (1,136 yards / 5.4 YPC / 15 TDs) leads a rushing attack averaging 201.1 YPG (45th). Colorado is averaging 34.8 PPG (38th) but the big improvement has been on defense, as Colorado ranks 12th in total yards allowed (323.0 per) and 13th in points allowed (18.8 per). In McIntyre’s first three seasons, the Buffs had allowed 38.3, 39.0 and 27.5 PPG on about 450.0 YPG! Washington: Chris Petersen’s third season at Washington has been the ‘charm!’ Sophomore QB Jake Browning is third in the country in passing TDs (40), fourth in passing efficiency (181.6 rating) and ninth in yards per completion (14.78). He’s completed 65.0% with just seven INTs. He’s complemented nicely by a rushing attack averaging 205.4 YPG (40th) on 5.5 YPC, led by RB Myles Gaskin (1,180 yards on 6.0 YPC with 10 TDs). Washington is the conference’s highest-scoring team at 44.8 PPG (3rd in the nation) and has scored 31 or more in all of its 11 wins. Four Huskies appear on the All-Pac-12 first-team defense, which allows 17.8 PPG (11th) on 328.9 YPG (17th). The pick: The Buffaloes can match the Huskies in the trenches but Washington owns fairly significant edges in speed and depth. Washington know how to “make things happen” as well as any team in the nation (save Alabama), with 21 offensive TDs of either 40-plus yards or TDs scored by their defense or special teams. Washington has its sights on a spot in the four-team College Football Playoff and may just get one. However, what I like even better here, is a high scoring game. The Over is a 10* play. |
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12-02-16 | Clippers v. Pelicans OVER 207 | Top | 114-96 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: The 15-5 LA Clippers close their six-game road trip Friday night against the suddenly resurgent 7-12 New Orleans Pelicans at the Smoothie King Center, coming arguably the team's most complete game of the season on Thursday night. The Clippers routed the reigning NBA champion Cavaliers 113-94 in Cleveland, snapping a three-game road losing streak. New Orleans opened 1-9 but the Pelicans are now 7-12 and their recent surge has been fueled by the team winning five in a row at home, after opening 0-5. The LA Clippers: The Clippers played an outstanding game in Cleveland, as J.J. Redick (15.6 PPG) scored 23 points on 9-of-13 shooting, as LA had 33 assists on 42 baskets to stun the defending champion. Griffin (20.7 & 8.5) had a double-double with 13 points & 11 assists, Paul (17.9-8.9 APG) added 16 points and nine assists and Jordan (11.4 & 12.8) had nine points and 15 rebounds.The Clipps will now look to cap their road trip at 3-3 with a win in New Orleans. New Orleans: As is the case with everything surrounding the Pelicans, it revolves around Anthony Davis (32.1 & 11.2), who is averaging 37.3 points, 13.2 rebounds, 2.7 blocks and 2.3 steals in 10 contests at Smoothie King Center. Guard Jrue Holiday matched a season high with 22 points against the Lakers and New Orleans is 5-2 since he returned from a long layoff to be with his ailing wife (he’s averaged 17.1 PPG and 6.3 APG in his seven games back / just one start). "When Jrue's on the floor, it changes the dynamics of our entire team," Davis said. The Pelicans also are about to get healthier. Guard Tyreke Evans (15.2-5.2-6.6 last season), a slasher who can penetrate and dish, has missed the entire season rehabbing from knee surgery. Evans has been practicing with few restrictions and likely will return for spot duty next week, but not against the Clippers on Friday night. The pick: The Clippers are a perfect 9-0 in games included in back-to-back sets, going 5-0 in the first game and 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in the second but this game could be different, off that big win over Cleveland, up against a team having won five straight at home. However, more importantly, the Clippers have scored 100-plus points in 13 of their last 15 games (not sure where that 70-point effort at Indiana on Nov. 27th came from?) and unlike in the early going of the season, the team's defense has been lax for quite some time now. The Over is a 10* play. |
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12-01-16 | Ducks v. Canucks UNDER 5 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: The 11-8-4 Anaheim Ducks visit the 10-11-2 Vancouver Canucks Thursday night. Vancouver opened the season with a four-game homestand and went 4-0 but then suffered a nine-game losing drought (0-8-1) before righting the ship with back-to-back wins, giving them a 6-3-1 run in its last 10. The Ducks also enter on a two-game winning streak and finished the month of November 8-4-2. Anaheim: Captain Ryan Getzlaf has 18 points and a club-best 16 assists, tying him for the team lead in points with Kesler (8 & 10) and Perry (4 & 14). Goaltender John Gibson matched a career-high with 39 saves in Tuesday’s 2-1 win over the Canadiens and is expected to be in goal tonight (7-7-3, 2.52 GAA & .912 save percentage). Vancouver: The Canucks have played well as of late, despite being ravaged by injuries to key defensemen Alex Edler (finger) and Chris Tanev (ankle) plus winger Jannik Hansen (ribs). Also paying dividends are winger Sven Baertschi (3-7 10 points), playing his second full NHL season and center Bo Horvat (8-8 16 points), a third-year player. They formed an effective line with veteran winger Alex Burrows (4-5 9 points). "I like that line," Desjardins said. "That line has been good, and (Horvat) is a real catalyst on that line -- he's a real driver. He comes with speed and he comes hard and every shift he is like that. It's been a good line for us." The pick: Anaheim has won 12 of its last 17 versus Vancouver and Canucks goalie Ryan Miller owns just a 4-7-1 mark with a 2.82 goals-against average versus the Ducks. Anaheim’s Gibson is off a big game and considering that neither team does much scoring in this situation (Anaheim’s averaging 2.18 GPG on the road and Vancouver is averaging 2.42 GPG at home), the Under is an 8* play. |
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12-01-16 | Islanders v. Capitals OVER 5 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: The New York Islanders squandered a 3-0 third-period lead but scored with 26.6 seconds left and then added an empty-netter three seconds later to give them 5-3 win over the Pittsburgh Penguins. The 8-10-4 Islander now have a chance at their first three-game winning streak of the season when they travel to face the 13-6-2 Washington Capitals in the first meeting of the season between these Metropolitan Division foes. NY Islanders: Nikolay Kulemin scored into an empty net three seconds after Anders Lee's tally Wednesday, putting New York in the record book as it matched the NHL mark for the fastest two goals by one team set March 12, 1935, by the St. Louis Eagles and equaled on Jan. 21, 2004, by the Minnesota Wild. The Islanders have won two in a row for the first time since the fifth and sixth games of the season (Oct. 21 and 23). "I think the thing is, with us, we've just got to trust that when you stick with it, it's just going to turn around," Cal Clutterbuck said of New York, which was 2-5-4 in November prior to Monday's win. Washington: The Capitals are the defending Presidents' Trophy winner but they enter just 5-5-0 over their last 10 games. After finishing with the league's fifth-best power play last season (21.9 percent success rate), the Capitals are currently ranked 19th, scoring just 15.6 percent of the time. "It's ... a little bit of finish, a little bit of hunger," Capitals coach Barry Trotz said. "We're entering as well as we have. We have the possession time. We need to get the back of the net. How do you get the back of the net? We've got to hit the net (with our shots). We've got to be hungry when there is a rebound." The pick: Braden Holtby is expected to be in goal (10-5-1 with a 2.18 GGA and .920 save percentage) but he’s also 11-1-3 in his career with a 2.13 goals against average and .930 save percentage against the Islanders. New York's Thomas Greiss started against the Penguins, which means Jaroslav Halak (3-6, 3.08 GAA, .904 save percentage) is likely to start Thursday night. He's 6-6 with a 2.73 goals against and .897 save percentage against the Capitals. Surely, I don’t expect another goal ‘explosion’ out of the Islanders by Washington is 8-3-0 at home this season and the Islanders are allowing just about 3 1/2 goals per game on the road. The Over is a 10* play. |
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11-30-16 | Spurs v. Mavs OVER 190 | Top | 94-87 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: The Spurs and Mavs are longtime rivals and meet for the second time in 10 days Wednesday night in Dallas. However, it hardly seems like much of a rivalry these days with San Antonio (14-4) off to the second-best start in team history, despite having a nine-game winning streak snapped in a 95-83 loss to Orlando at home last night, while Dallas (3-13) is off to the worst start in Mark Cuban's ownership tenure. Dallas just recently ended an eight-game slide, the longest since Cuban bought the club in 2000. San Antonio: San Antonio is 4-4 at home after losing just twice at the AT&T Center a season ago. "It's hard to explain even for us, as players who are on the floor competing," Spurs center Pau Gasol said. "It's not like we're trying to lose games at home and then go on the road and get all of them. We understand the importance of each and every game, but it's going to have to translate into better play at home, especially." Gasol is part of a deep group of San Antonio role players (seven average between 5.9 and 10.9 PPG) supporting the team's dominant one-two punch of SF Leonard (24.6 & 6.0) and PF Aldridge (18.3 & 6.7). While the Spurs are .500 at home, they are 10-0 on the road, which is also a franchise-best winning streak away from home. Dallas: Free agent Harrison Barnes has picked up the scoring load with Nowitzki's continued absences. Barnes scored at least 20 points nine times in 16 games after doing so on only six occasions last season with Golden State and is averaging a career-high 20.8 PPG. The Mavericks will be without Dirk Nowitzki (12.2 & 6.4) for at least the next two games recovering from a right Achilles tendon injury and he’s already missed 11 games this season. "He's making gradual progress, but not enough to play him right now," Dallas head coach Rick Carlisle said. The struggling Mavericks snapped an eight-game losing streak with a much-needed 91-81 victory over the New Orleans Pelicans on Sunday but they still own an NBA-worst record of 3-13. The Mavs currently own an unwanted ‘trifecta’ of ranking last (30th) in the league in points scored (91.5), FG percentage (41.0%) and three-point percentage (31.5%). The pick: San Antonio has won six straight and 20 of the last 24 regular-season meetings with Dallas and it shouldn't be much different here, although I have a better way to go. The team’s Nov. 21st meeting saw a 96-81 Spurs win in San Antonio but a closer look art the SA stat sheet shows that in going 10-0 on the road, the Spurs are averaging 110.9 PPG and allowing 100.8 PPG, as eight of the 10 have gone over. Make that nine of 11 here, as the Over is a 10* play. |
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11-30-16 | Penguins v. Islanders UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -117 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: The 13-6-3 Pittsburgh Penguins should be eager to get back on the ice Wednesday night after a three-day break with Pittsburgh last playing Saturday night when it won 4-3 over the Devils in a shootout. The New York Islanders edged the Calgary Flames 2-1 in overtime on Monday, moving to 7-10-4 overall and are hoping a slate of three games in four days can revive their flagging season. Pittsburgh: The Penguins rebounded from a 6-2 drubbing at Minnesota on Friday with a shootout win over New Jersey the following day, improving to 6-0-0 following a regulation defeat. "I thought we responded the right way," captain Sidney Crosby, who kept the streak intact by scoring the tying goal with 14 seconds left in regulation, told reporters. Pittsburgh got good news when injured forwards Patric Hornqvist and Chris Kunitz, who have missed six and four games, respectively, returned to practice Tuesday. Kunitz (lower body) still is not ready to play, but Hornqvist could be back in the lineup against the Islanders after being sidelined due to a concussion. BTW, Crosby has tormented the Islanders with 31 goals and 98 points in 56 career games. NY Islanders: New York is buried at the bottom of the Metropolitan Division and has the fewest points (18) in the Eastern Conference. The Islanders won for only the third time in 12 games this month by squeezing out a 2-1 overtime win over Calgary on Monday night. The Islanders have won just once in eight road games and the team has failed to score more than two regulation goals in any of their past eight contests (five away / three home). One positive sign for the Islanders in the win over Calgary was a first-period goal by captain John Tavares, which snapped a nine-game goal drought. "I have a lot of expectations," Tavares told reporters. "I have to make plays and produce. And lead by example." Tavares has 10 goals and 26 points in 37 games against Pittsburgh. The pick: This marks the third meeting this season between the two teams, with the Penguins beating the Islanders 4-3 on Oct. 27 in Pittsburgh and then earned a 3-2 overtime win at Barclays Center Nov. 18. As noted above, the Islanders have failed to score more than two regulation goals in the past eight contests and I see no reason for that to change here. The Under is a 10* play. |
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11-29-16 | Wild v. Canucks OVER 5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 102 | 21 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: The 11-7-3 Minnesota Wild visit the 9-11-2 Vancouver Canucks Tuesday night. Minnesota its five-game road trip with a 4-3 shootout win in St. Louis, extending its overall point streak to four games (2-0-2). The Canucks are hoping to extend a recent turnaround that has since them earn points in four of their last five contests and six of nine, after enduring a nine-game winless streak (0-8-1). Minnesota: The Wild’s 2-0-2 run has seen them earn six of a possible eight points. "I think we're playing good hockey," head coach Bruce Boudreau told reporters. "It's just not winning eight in a row. I would like to be able to put something together." Minnesota added a defenseman Sunday by recalling Gustav Olofsson from the American Hockey League. The 21-year-old Swede made his NHL debut last campaign and his arrival coincides with the status of fellow blue-liner Christian Folin, who is expected to miss the next 3-to-4 weeks with a sprained left MCL. Minnesota center Eric Staal leads the team with 16 points and has notched an assist in three straight contests but has gone nine games without a goal. Vancouver: Bo Horvat leads the team with modest totals in goals (seven), assists (eight) and points (15) after netting two tallies and setting up four others over his last four games. Vancouver is in the upper echelon of the league on the penalty kill as it entered Monday tied with Minnesota for sixth with an 85.2 percent success rate but the power play is a different story, as the Canucks have gone 8-for-64 (12.5 percent) to rank 26th. It was learned Monday that top defenseman Alex Edler will need surgery to repair a broken finger and be out for the next month. His injury means that Vancouver will be without him and fellow veteran defenseman Chris Tanev, who has shown no sign of returning soon. The pick: I like the way the Wild are playing and the Canucks have had some success at home (6-4-1). The Over is a 10* play. |
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11-29-16 | Rockets v. Jazz OVER 202.5 | Top | 101-120 | Win | 100 | 20 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: The Jazz are now 10-8 after Monday’s 112-103 road win over the Minnesota Timberwolves. Utah had lost four in a row before rebounding to hold the Denver Nuggets and the Atlanta Hawks to an average of 75.5 PPG in back-to-back wins bridging Thanksgiving. Then came Monday’s offensive ‘explosion.’ Houston comes in off Sunday’s 130-114 rout of the Blazers in Portland, which gave them an 11-6 record. Houston: Harden (28.9-7.4-12.2) is going to have a terrific season for Houston, as he currently leads the NBA in assists and will attempt to become the first player since Kansas City’s Nate "Tiny" Archibald in 1972-73 to lead the league in points and assists. He’s joined by four other double digit scores in Gordon (15.5), Ariza (12.8 & 5.0), Anderson (12.4 & 5.6) and Capela (12.4 & 8.7). Bradley is working his way back into shape and in six games has averaged 7.2 PPG (also 4.2 RPG and 4.0 APG). He’s VERY important to Houston, as the Rockets are 5-1 since he returned to the lineup, after missing the first 11 games of the season with a left knee injury. Houston is averaging 109.8 PPG (3rd) on 46.9 percent shooting (2nd), including 37.8 on threes (4th). Utah: Center Rudy Gobert (10.8 & 10.9) was spectacular with 16 points, a season-best 17 rebounds and three blocked shots in the victory over the Timberwolves. The double-double was Gobert's 10th of the season and he has been a big factor in Utah's success over the first 18 games of the season. The team's new PG, George Hill (21.2 & 4.2 APG) and the team's best player, SF Hayward (20.6-7.1-3.6), lead five double digit scorers. Hill is averaging 23.0 points on 54.5 percent shooting in three games since returning from a thumb injury but PF Favors has missed six straight games and remains out indefinitely with a knee injury. The pick: The Jazz lead the NBA in points allowed (93.4 per) and opponents’ FG percentage (42.4) but controlling Houston is asking a lot. The Jazz couldn't slow down James Harden, who went off for 31 points and had 10 assists in Houston's 111-102 win at Toyota Center back on Nov. 19 and I see them having similar issues here. However, the Jazz showed last night they can score (112 points on 50.6 percent shooting) and Houston’s D leaves much to be desired, allowing 105.5 PPG (22nd) on 46.0 percent shooting (27th). The Over is a 10* play. |
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11-28-16 | Stars v. Blues UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -130 | 19 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: The 9-8-5 Dallas Stars will be in St. Louis on Monday night to take on the Blues. Dallas limited an opponent to fewer than two goals for just the second time this season Friday with a 2-1 victory over Vancouver and will have its work cut out for itself here in St. Louis, as the Blues improved to 9-1-2 at Scottrade Center with a 4-3 shootout victory over Minnesota on Saturday. Dallas: The Stars begin a four-game road trip with this game and after their 2-1 win at home over Vancouver on Friday, have scored one or two goals in four of their last six games. Captain Jamie Benn, who has registered four goals and nine assists in 14 games this month, is second on the team with 17 points and Patrick Eaves has notched 16. Dallas made one roster move on Sunday, recalling defenseman Stephen Johns from the Texas Stars of the AHL. Johns played in 16 games with the Stars earlier this season before being sent to the minors. St. Louis: Opponents know that one of the biggest keys to beating the Blues is to find a way to shut down their leading scorer, right winger Vladimir Tarasenko (9 goals and 22 points). However, teams have more than Tarasenko to worry about now because of the way the combination of left winger Jaden Schwartz, center Paul Stastny and right winger David Perron are playing since being placed on a line together. Perron owns two goals and eight assists in his last seven games, Schwartz has scored five goals and assisted on three more in his last six games and Stastny has added two goals and two assists in his last five games. The pick: As noted, Dallas has scored one or two goals in four of its last six games and goaltender Antti Niemi, delivered a 30-save performance in the team’s last game. The Blues are allowing just 1.67 GPG at home this year and goaltender Allen is 7-0-2 with a 1.42 goals-against average and .947 save percentage at Scottrade Center this season. The Under is a 10* play. |
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11-27-16 | Rockets v. Blazers UNDER 222.5 | Top | 130-114 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: The 10-6 Houston Rockets visit the 9-9 Portland Trail Blazers on Sunday. Houston kicked off its second five-game road trip of the young season with its fourth victory in five contests, a 117-104 win over Sacramento on Friday behind an NBA-record 50 attempts from three-point range. Meanwhile, the Trail Blazers began a four-game homestand with a 119-104 victory over New Orleans on Friday. Houston: Harden (28.3-7.8-12.4) is going to have a terrific season for Houston, as he currently leads the NBA in assists at 12.4 per game and will attempt to become the first player since Kansas City’s Nate "Tiny" Archibald in 1972-73 to lead the league in points and assists. He’s joined by four other double digit scores in Gordon (14.9), Ariza (12.4 & 5.2), Anderson (112.3 & 5.6) and Capela (11.9 & 8.7). Bradley is working his way back into shape and in five games has averaged 8.4 PPG (also 4.2 RPG and 4.0 APG). He’s VERY important to Houston, as the Rockets are 4-1 since he returned to the lineup, after missing the first 11 games of the season with a left knee injury. Houston is averaging 108.5 PPG (5th) on 46.4 percent shooting (4th). Portland: The Blazers are led by the guard duo of Lillard (28.3-4.9-5.3) and McCollum (22.1). The Portland guards are the second-highest scoring duo in the NBA, next to Golden State's Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry. However, only SF Harkless (12.1) also scores in double figures. That said, Portland ranks just head of Houston in points scored at 109.4 PPG (4th). The real problem for Portland is its defense, which entered Friday’s game last in the NBA in defensive efficiency (109.7 rating). Portland currently ranks 29th (of 30 teams) in allowing 112.8 PPG. The pick: Sunday's contest pits the NBA's fourth- and fifth-highest scoring teams and as noted, Portland is arguably the NBA’s worst defensive team. The Rockets aren't afraid to hoist up shots from anywhere as the NBA leaders in three-point field goal attempts, with four players averaging more than six attempts from three-point range per game. The Blazers hoist up an average of a little more than 30 three-pointers a game, sixth-most in the league. Portland was 12 for 32 from beyond the arc in its 119-104 victory over New Orleans on Friday night. Over? Not with this high total. The Under is a 10* play. |
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11-27-16 | Chiefs v. Broncos OVER 38.5 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 37 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: Along with the NFC East, the AFC West has been the NFL’s two-best divisions in 2016 and Sunday in Denver, the 7-3 Broncos and Chiefs, who both trail the 8-2 Raiders, get set to meet for the first of two games in a five-week span (play again in Week 16 at KC). Kansas City: The Chiefs’ offense has struggled all season thanks in large part to a rash of injuries to its RBs and now its WRs. Jeremy Maclin is doubtful with a groin injury and rookie Tyreek Hill is questionable with a knee issue. KC ranks 22nd in both rushing (97.9 YPG on 4.1 YPC) and passing (235.9 YPG), leaving them 19th in points scored at 22.2 PPG. QB Alex Smith has as many detractors as fans with his strength being not making many mistakes and his weakness being not making many big plays. He has just just four INTs in 302 attempts but he also just nine TD passes. The Chiefs just saw their five-game winning streak end last Sunday when they lost 19-17 at home to Tampa Bay), as the team’s inability to finish off drives eventually caught up with them. Denver: the Broncos won last year’s Super Bowl on the strength of its defense and this year’s unit is allowing 318.0 YPG to rank fourth and while the team's 18.9 PPG ranks eighth, be aware that Seattle's ranks No. 1 in that category but allows less then two PPG less at 17.3! After all is said and dome this year, Denver will likely look back and be relieved it didn’t sign Brock Osweiler. The FA decided to “take his talents to Houston” and the it’s the Broncos smiling these days, not the Texans. Osweiler has been a big disappointment, averaging only 187.4 YPG passing for Houston with 12 TDs and 10 INTs for an awful QB rating of 74.9. The undrafted Trevor Siemian is no star but he’s put up numbers slightly better than Osweiler and the Broncos didn’t have to invest in him with a four-year, $72 million contract, $37 million of which was guaranteed. The pick: The Chiefs lost for the first time in six games last week but we should have seen this coming. KC has just one offensive TD over the last three games, with the team averaging only 18.7 PPG in that span. When a team has one offensive TD, 10 FGs and one “pick six” over a three-game span, “trouble‘s brewing!” Denver opened this season having gone 21-3 against AFC West foes but just 1-2 vs AFC West opponents here in 2016. However, the Broncos are 4-1 SU and ATS at home this season, losing only to Atlanta, which won for the 4th straight time in that one plus rookie Paxton Lynch was making his first-ever NFL start at QB. “Big game” with “high stakes” and while one could argue that favors an "under," thsi total is so low I'm making the Over a 10* play. |
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11-27-16 | Rams v. Saints UNDER 46 | Top | 21-49 | Loss | -115 | 29 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: The NFL’s No. 1 overall pick of the 2016 draft, Jared Goff, made is NFL debut last Sunday, making his first start. The Rams seemingly had their game with the Dolphins in hand last week (led 10-0 with under six minutes left in the contest). Goff played a very small part in LA getting that lead (17 of 31 for just 134 yards) and two dramatic late TD drives by Ryan Tannehill washed it all away, as the Dolphins escaped with a 14-10 victory.The 4-6 Rams travel to New Orleans in Week 12 to take the the 4-6 Saints, who have lost close games the last two weeks to last year’s two Super Bowl participants. The Saints first lost 25-23 to the Broncos at home on the blocked return of a late extra-point try and then fell 23-20 at Carolina. Los Angeles: Goff said he thought things went relatively well in his debut. "Felt good," he said. "We're obviously disappointed with the result there at the end and how things turned out, and how we felt through the whole game and how in control we were." However, this will be hits first road start. RB Todd Gurley had a 24-yard scoring run last Sunday and but he finished with just 76 yards on 20 carries. He has not topped 85 yards in a game all season, as the Rams average just 84.5 YPG rushing (29th) on the season (3.3 YPC). The team's 14.9 PPG average is the worst in the NFL and its 299.9 YPG ranks 31st of 32 teams. However, the defense ranks sixth in yards allowed (318.3 per) and 7th in points allowed (14.9 PPG). New Orleans: The ageless Drew Brees is completing 71.0 percent for an NFL-leading 316.8 YPG (Brees has thrown for 300 yards four times on the season and surpassed 400 yards twice) with 26 TDs and 8 INTs, giving him a 106.4 QB rating. Brees just seems to “make it work.” Third-year WR Cooks was a No. 1 pick (51 catches with 6 TDs) and Ohio St. rookie Thomas was a second round pick (56 catches and 5 TDs) but Snead was an undrafted FA out of Ball St. and he’s got 46 catches with 4 TDs. The Saints have averaged 422.0 YPG (2nd) and 28.5 PPG (4th) but the defense gives it all back, allowing 28.6 PPG (30th) on 382.8 YPG (27th). The pick: Brees vs. Goff is a “no contest,” especially here in the Superdome, where Brees is usually unstoppable (15-4 ratio with a 112.8 QB rating at home in 2016). However, that LA defense just doesn’t give up. The Rams have already won twice this season without scoring a TD, 9-3 at home vs. Seattle in Week 2 and 9-6 at the NY Jets in Week 10. I expect the Saints to win but also will make the Under a 10* play. |
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11-26-16 | Canucks v. Avalanche OVER 5 | Top | 3-2 | Push | 0 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: The 8-11-2 Vancouver Canucks are playing the second of a back-to-back when they visit the 9-10-0 Colorado Avalanche on Saturday night. The Canucks lost 2-1 last night to the Stars 2-1 in Dallas and now face a Colorado team that is dealing with injuries. Vancouver: The Canucks are dealing with injuries of their own, as winger Sven Baertschi missed Friday's loss in Dallas because of a toe injury. However, Winger Jack Skille, who played for Colorado last year, returned to the lineup Friday after missing one game. The Canucks are finishing up a quick three-game road trip before returning home to play the Wild on Tuesday. Vancouver is 4-3-1 in the past seven games. Bo Horvat leads Vancouver with seven goals but has yet to score on the power play. Jayson Megna provided all the offense for Vancouver on Friday, netting his first goal in five games this season to equal his total in 18 contests over the previous two campaigns. Captain Henrik Sedin produced three scores in his first six games but has scored only twice in his last 15 games and is currently mired in a seven-game drought. Colorado: The Avalanche will take the ice tonight without No. 1 goaltender Semyon Varlamov, who is out with an upper-body injury. They'll also play their fifth straight game without captain Gabriel Landeskog because of a lower-body injury. Calvin Pickard will be in net against the Canucks (4-1-0 with a 2.07 GAA and .931 save percentage, as the Avalanche look to take advantage of a tired team and even their record at Pepsi Center (just 4-5-0 this year) when they continue their five-game homestand Saturday. Colorado lost here at home in its last game, allowing four goals in the third period en route to a 6-3 loss to Edmonton on Wednesday. The pick: The Canucks have improved their play of late, alternating wins and losses over their last eight contests, after enduring a nine-game winless streak (0-8-1). Expect to see some scoring in this contest, making the Over a 10* play. |
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11-26-16 | UCLA v. California UNDER 71 | Top | 10-36 | Win | 100 | 31 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: UCLA opened the season ranked 16th in the AP’s preseason poll but now wrap up the year with this game at Cal, just 4-7 overall, including 2-6 in Pac 12 play. Sonny Dykes’ first two seasons at Cal resulted in 1-11 and 5-7 records but led by Jared Goff, who would become the No.1 overall pick in the NFL’s 2016 draft, the Golden Bears finished 8-5 in 2016 after a 55-36 win over Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl. This season was expected to be a rebuilding year but after a 52-49 double-OT win over Oregon on Oct 21, the Bears stood at 4-3. However, Cal enters this season finale on a four-game slide and like UCLA, is 4-7, including 2-6 in Pac 12 action. UCLA: The Bruins opened the season with a young hot-shot QB in sophomore Josh Rosen but he’s missed five games because of a shoulder injury and has been done for quite some time now. Fifth-year senior Mike Fafaul will be starting his fifth game in place of Rosen on Saturday. Head coach Jim Mora has praised Fafual saying, "He played behind Brett (Hundley), and then Josh got the job, and he has hung in there. “He's everything that you want in a quarterback in terms of studying the game and it being serious to him. It's just great." Still, Fafual has just 11 TD passes (five came in one game) and 10 INTs on the season and gets no help from a UCLA running game which ranks 127th out of 128 FBS teams (84.3 YPG on 2.9 YPC). California: Goff may have been the NFL’s No. 1 pick but don’t blame QB Davis Webb (a Texas Tech transfer) for Cal’s woes in 2016. He’s completed 61.2% for 3,994 yards (Cal ranks 3rd in passing at 364.1 YPG) with 35 TDs and 12 INTs. Cal’s offense ranks 22nd in scoring (37.2 PPG) but its defense allows 45.5 PPG (128th out of 128 FBS schools), and 541.8 YPG to rank 127th! The pick: The urge here is to go over but note that UCLA has been a huge underachiever all season on the road, going 1-4 SU and averaging a poor 18.4 PPG. UCLA likely left all it had in the tank on the season in the Rose Bowl last Saturday, in losing 36-14 to USC. With this high total, the under is a 10* play. |
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11-26-16 | Boston College v. Wake Forest OVER 36.5 | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -108 | 27 h 38 m | Show |
Then set-up: Boston College may be just 1-6 in ACC play it’s 5-6 overall, meaning a win here at Wake Forest would give the team a 6-6 record, making them bowl-eligible. That would be quite a turnaround after the Eagles were just 3-9 in 2015. Wake Forest already owns six wins, coming in at 6-5 overall, including 3-4 in ACC play. "We're at six wins and we're going to try like crazy to get seven," Wake Forest coach Dave Clawson told the media. "We still have a lot to play for and I'm really proud of our guys." Boston College: The Eagles broke a 12-game ACC losing streak with a 21-14 win at NC State back on Oct 29 but that’s the team's lone ACC win here in both the 2015 and 2016 seasons, combined. Boston College had hoped QB Patrick Towles, a Kentucky transfer, would spark an offense which averaged just 17.2 PPG but that hasn’t been the case. Towles has completed just 51.8% for 1,505 yards with nine TDs and six INTs. The running game averages 151.6 YPG (95th) on 3.5 YPC, as the team's leading rusher is Hilliman, who has only 455 yards (3.1 YPC). BC comes into this game averaging 19.3 PPG (123rd) on 299.3 YPG, which ranks 127th out of 128 FBS teams. BC’s defense ranks 10th in total defense (312.4 YPG) but the Eagles are allowing 25.5 PPG (49th). Wake Forest: When the Demon Deacons have run the ball well they’ve won. When they have not, they’ve lost. RBs Colburn (528 yards) and Carney (475 yards) join QB Wolford (454 yards) combine eto run for 147.3 YPG (101st) on just 3.6 YPC. However, Wake Forest has averaged 202 rushing yards in the team’s six wins, compared to just 80.8 YPG on the ground in its five losses. Boston College allows just 102.6 YPG on the ground (7th-best), so Wolford may have]e to got to the air, although his numbers are no better than Towles, completing 56.7% for 1,454 with five TDs and seven INTs. Wake’s defense allows more yards than BC’s (388.5 YPG to rank 51st) but gives up fewer points at 22.3 PPG, to rank 31st. The pick: Only two of the last 13 meetings between BC and Wake have been decided by more than 10 points, with BC averaging 21.8 points and Wake 20.8 PPG. This “super-low” total makes the Over a 10* play. |
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11-25-16 | Raptors v. Bucks UNDER 211 | Top | 105-99 | Win | 100 | 18 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: The 9-6 Toronto Raptors wrap up a five-game road trip Friday night when they face the 6-7 Milwaukee Bucks at the Bradley Center. Toronto opened 7-2 but has gone 2-4 its last six games. Meanwhile, the Bucks are coming off a 93-89 victory Monday over Orlando and Milwaukee will be trying to win consecutive games for the first time in nearly a month and for just the second time this season. Toronto: DeMar DeRozan remains at a 30-points-per-night level (30.5-5.2-4.1) but the Raptors need to develop other scoring options in order to stay in the win column. DeRozan scored “just” 24 points and grabbed five rebounds and nine assists in the Raptors' last game, a 115-102 Wednesday victory at Houston. SF DeMarre Carroll underwent knee surgery last season and is being monitored carefully in an effort to keep him fully healthy throughout this campaign. Carroll sat out the second night of a back-to-back on Monday but responded with a season-high 20 points on 9-of-14 shooting on Wednesday. DeRozan’s backcourt mate Lowry (19.7-5.3-7.3) will eventually have to start shooting better (39.45 so far) for Toronto to compete for the Eastern Conference title. Milwaukee: The Bucks have two outstanding talents in Giannis Antetokounmpo (21.8-8.5-5.8) and Jabari Parker (19.7 & 6.2) but no other player reaches double figures. The Bucks are a poor offensive team (101.7 PPG ranks 23rd) but a solid defensive one. The Bucks are holding opponents to 102.6 PPG (11th) on 43.7% shooting (6th), which includes a league-best 30.6% on opponents three-point shots. The pick: The Raptors have won 10 of the last 11 meetings with the Bucks, including five in a row and all four contests last season, winning by an average margin of 16.3 PPG. The Raptors are 7-1 to the over in road games this year and the Bucks are 6-1-1 to the over in home games. However, the ‘worm’ is about to turn. The Under is a 10* play. |
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11-25-16 | Blackhawks v. Ducks OVER 5 | Top | 3-2 | Push | 0 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: The 13-6-2 Chicago Blackhawks try to continue their holiday tradition of defeating the Ducks in Anaheim on the day after Thanksgiving when they visit on Friday. This is the third consecutive season in which the teams meet on this day, with Chicago prevailing 3-2 in overtime last year and 4-1 in 2014, but the Blackhawks could be without captain Jonathan Toews for Friday's renewal after he left Wednesday's 2-1 loss in San Jose. The Ducks enter 9-7-4, locked in a four-team battle at the top of the Pacific Division, as four teams are within three points of each other. Chicago: Toews did not return Wednesday night, after falling awkwardly along the boards in the second period as Chicago fell to 2-3-0 on its seven-game Circus road trip. Blackhawks coach Joel Quenneville called it an upper-body injury and told reporters he was hopeful that it was “nothing long-term or serious.” He indicated Toews could play the final two games of the trip. Patrick Kane paces Chicago with 14 assists and 20 points but has recorded only two assists on the road trip after totaling four goals and nine points in his first seven games this month. Artem Anisimov and Artemi Panarin each have notched a club-high eight goals and 11 assists while Marian Hossa owns a team-high 11 goals. Anaheim: The Ducks enter Friday's game off back-to-back losses, which followed five wins in the team’s previous seven games. Anaheim was outplayed Sunday night in a 3-2 loss to the LA Kings and then the the Ducks sustained another 3-2 loss in a 14-round shootout Tuesday night against the New York Islanders. Corey Perry's has 334 career goals and 346 assists and currently shares the team lead with 16 points on the strength of 12 assists. Anaheim's second line of C Ryan Kesler (eight goals) and wings Jakob Silfverberg (six) and Andrew Cogliano (five) continues to be its best two-way unit as they lead the team in plus-minus at plus-9, 8 and 6, respectively. The pick: Chicago concludes its longest road trip of the season, brought on by Ringling Bros. and Barnum & Bailey occupying the United Center, with this game in Anaheim and a Saturday game in Los Angeles on Saturday. As noted above, the Blackhawks and the Ducks at the Honda Center in Anaheim, Ca., on the day after Thanksgiving has become almost as traditional as turkey leftovers, college football and millions of shoppers looking for bargains on Black Friday. Expect more than a few goals in this one, as Chicago goalie Corey Crawford has allowed 13 goals in his past four games, after conceding just 11 in his previous eight. Also note that the Blackhawks own a league-worst penalty-killing unit at 68.7 percent, which has allowed four goals on 10 chances over the last three games. It looks as if Gibson will be in goal for Anaheim but whether it’s him or Bernier, the Over is a 10* play. |
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11-24-16 | LSU v. Texas A&M OVER 47 | Top | 54-39 | Win | 100 | 23 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: LSU opened the season No. 5 in the AP’s preseason poll but a season-opening 16-14 loss to Wisconsin in Green Bay pretty much set the tone for the season. The Tigers fired Les Miles after a 2-2 start and while LSU won the first three games under interim head coach Ed Orgeron (averaging 41.7 PPG), the Tigers have lost two of their last three, getting shut out 10-0 by Alabama and losing 16-10 to Florida (both losses came at home!). Texas A&M began the year unranked but upset No. 15 UCLA 31-24 in OT in its season opener. When the first CFP rankings were released back on Nov. 1, the 7-1 Aggies were No. 4. However, at 8-3, Texas A&M was not in the latest CFP rankings (released Nov. 22). LSU: Orgeron was expected to spark the Tigers offense and as noted above, LSU averaged 41.7 PPG in his first three games. However, in getting shut out at home by Alabama, the Tigers were held to just 125 total yards and six FDs. Then last Saturday vs. Florida, Orgeron watched his team score just one TD in five goal-to-go chances on Saturday, including a goal-line stand that clinched the setback. "We shot ourselves in the foot and had a lot of opportunities in the red zone," Orgeron told reporters. "We didn't convert any points. Two turnovers were really costly in the football game. Guys fought the whole way, gave us a chance to win the football game." Now star RB Leonard Fournette, who was hobbled by an ankle injury that has plagued him on and off all season and was limited to 40 yards on 12 carries Saturday, is expected to miss Thursday night. Texas A&M: The Aggies are still a possibility for a Sugar Bowl berth, which would go to the second-highest ranked team from the SEC. A&M would finish in second place in the SEC West with a win on Thursday and an Auburn loss against Alabama. Texas A&M lost starting QB Trevor Knight to a shoulder injury in the loss to Mississippi on Nov. 12 and is still getting used to Jake Hubenak at QB. He threw for 248 yards and a touchdown in a 23-10 win against UTSA and has completed 58 of 97 this year for 598 yards with six TDs and two INTs. He will be helped by a running game averaging 247.5 YPG on 5.7 YPC. RB Williams (956 yards on 7.0 YPC) will go over 1,000 yards for the season in this one. The pick: LSU has nothing to play for, other than the Tigers could be playing for the well-liked Ed Orgeron's job. Texas A&M has averaged 35.1 PPG on the season but its defense has allowed 33.8 PPG over its last four SEC games. The Over is an 8* play. |
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11-24-16 | Vikings v. Lions OVER 41.5 | Top | 13-16 | Loss | -101 | 16 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: The Lions and Vikings met in Minnesota on the first Sunday of November (11/6), with Lions prevailing in OT. The loss represented the third in what would become a four-game Vikings losing streak, while in contrast, the Lions are currently on a 5-1 run. These NFC North rivals meet again Thanksgiving afternoon in Detroit with both teams tied atop the division at 6-4. The Vikings entered 2016 off an 11-5 season in 2015 (won NFC North) and despite losing starting QB Teddy Bridgewater in the preseason and RB Adrian Peterson for the year in Week 2, opened 5-0 SU & ATS. However, after a Week 6 bye, the Vikings lost four in a row (also 0-4 ATS), before ending their slide with a 30-24 home win over the Cardinals. Minnesota had averaged a woeful 14.0 PPG during its four-game losing streak but got a much-needed 30-point effort in beating Arizona. However, a closer look reveals that the Minnesota offense generated only three second-half points. The Vikings returned an interception 100 yards for a TD in the first half and then had a 104-yard KO return TD in the second half. Detroit: The Lions opened 1-3 but have rebounded to win five of their last six, with the wins coming by one, three, three, six (in OT)and seven points! QB Stafford is completing 67.3% for 265.1 YPG and most importantly, owns an 18-5 ratio, giving him a QB rating of 101.2. He has engineered fourth-quarter comebacks in all six of the Lions' wins. They stunned Minnesota 22-16 in overtime in their last game on Nov. 6, after the Vikings grabbed the lead with 23 seconds remaining. A long pass play set up a tying 58-yard FG by Matt Prater and Stafford's 28-yard scoring pass to Golden Tate on the first possession of overtime finished off the another comeback. The pick: Minnesota QB Bradford is completing 69.8 percent for 222.4 YPG along with a 12-2 ratio and 99.8 QB rating. Neither team can run the ball, as Minnesota ranks last with 70.0 YPG (on 2.7 YPC), while the Lions rank 30th, averaging 79.5 YPG on 3.6 YPC. With no running games and perfect conditions inside, look for both QBs to play well. Thanksgiving in Detroit has been a long tradition and over the last three Turkey Day games, the Lions have won and covered over the Eagles, Bears and Packers, winning by the combined score of 119-41 (that means Detroit has avergaed 39.7 PPG). The last time these division rivals met on Thanksgiving Day was back in 1995, when the Lions pulled out a wild 44-38 victory. I don't expect 82 points here but I do expect more than enough to make the Over an 8* play. |
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11-23-16 | Blackhawks v. Sharks OVER 5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -119 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: The 13-5-2 Chicago Blackhawks will try to bounce back from their worst loss of the season, a 5-0 setback at Edmonton on Monday. Chicago is on its annual circus road trip and is currently 2-2-0 as the Blackhawks get set to visit the 10-8-1 San Jose Sharks on Wednesday night, the team’s fifth stop on its seven-game trek. Chicago: Monday’s loss was the team's second shutout loss on the road trip. "That wasn't our team, it was a tough loss and we just have to forget about it and worry about the next game," Chicago goaltender Corey Crawford told reporters after the drubbing by the Oilers. Chicago was also blanked 4-0 at the Winnipeg Jets on Nov. 15 plus were held scoreless for the first 42:53 before roaring back from three goals down for a 4-3 overtime win over the Vancouver Canucks on Saturday. head Coach Joel Quenneville told the Chicago Sun-Times that he needs production from everyone. "When you don't score in two of the three games, and you basically get production in one period out of nine, you're looking for ways to generate," he said. "... But we need four lines going." San Jose: The Sharks lost in the Stanley Cup final in six games to the Pittsburgh Penguins last season and come into this game trailing the Edmonton Oilers by just two points for the Pacific Division lead. The team has long been anchored by Joe Thornton and original Shark Patrick Marleau, both in their 19th NHL seasons with their respective contracts expiring after the season. Joe Pavelski (32) and Logan Couture (27) are signed through 2019 and now the Sharks' top defenseman has been taken care of.Brent Burns established franchise highs across the board for a defenseman with 27 goals, 48 assists and 75 points last season and is off to another sizzling start with seven goals and 16 points through 19 games. San Jose decided to reward the 31-year-old Burns with an eight-year contract extension worth a reported $64 million. on Tuesday. The pick: Chicago is 8-2-2 in its last 12 games against the Sharks and I feel confident that the Blackhawks will bounce back offensively off their recent struggles. The Over is a 10* play. |
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11-23-16 | Heat v. Pistons OVER 189 | Top | 84-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: Two struggling teams meet in Detroit on Thanksgiving eve, as the 4-9 Miami Heat take on the 6-9 Pistons at The Palace of Auburn Hills. The Pistons have lost four straight, including the first two games of a four-game homestand, while Miami lost to lowly Philadelphia 101-94 on Monday, ending a brief two-game winning streak, which had been preceded by a six-game slide. Miami: The Heat lost to Philly Monday despite a career-high 32 points from center Hassan Whiteside, who is having an All-Star caliber season, averaging 18.8 PPG to go along with a league-best 15.9 RPG and 2.7 blocks per game. However, three key players in the rotation are shooting under 40 percent from the floor. Injured Justise Winslow (wrist), who has missed four straight games, Dion Waiters and Josh Richardson are all converting 38.2 percent from the floor or worse. Dragic averages 16.2 PPG and a team-high 5.8 APG while fellow guard Tyler Johnson is scoring 11.3 PPG although he is 5-for-24 from the floor the last three contests. Detroit: The Pistons have been outrebounded in 11 of their first 15 games despite the presence of center Andre Drummond, who led the league in that category last season with 14.8 per (he’s averaging 14.6 7 13.9 TY). The Pistons have been balanced on offense with four players averaging between 13.7 and 16.2 PPG, led by forward Tobias Harris. However, they are ranked 26th in the league in scoring (96.8 PPG) on 43.4% shooting (25th). The pick: Miami will be playing its third road game in five days, while after opening by winning its first five games at home, Detroit has lost the first two of this current homestand. This over/under number comes in very low and the Over is a 10* play. |
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11-22-16 | Thunder v. Lakers UNDER 221 | Top | 109-111 | Win | 100 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: Russell Westbrook leads the 8-6 Oklahoma City Thunder into Staples Center tonight, as the team opens a three-game road trip against the 7-7 LA Lakers. The Durant-less Thunder opened the season 4-0 but are just 4-6 their last 10. As for the Lakers, a .500 start after 14 games seems like quite an achievement for a franchise which has won just 27, 21 and 17 games the last three seasons (LA didn’t win its seventh game last season until its 34th game!) Oklahoma City: One could argue that Westbrook (31.6-9.6-10.4) has been the NBA's top performer this season but the Thunder have struggled after a fast start. They opened 6-1 but have dropped five of their last seven contests, including a 115-111 overtime defeat by the Indiana Pacers in Oklahoma City on Sunday. "Just wasn't ready tonight," said Westbrook, who posted his fifth triple-double of the season with 31 points, 15 assists and 11 rebounds in the loss. "Starting with myself. I was (expletive) tonight. I could have did a lot of things better. I have to come out and be ready to play every night. I feel like I let my guys down and we have to be better." There is a YUGE drop-off after Westbrook, as backcourt mate Victor Oladipo is second on the team in scoring at 16.9 PPG. Then there is the center duo of Kanter (12.2 & 6.3) and Adams (9.9 & 5.2). After that, not so much! LA Lakers: Luke Walton’s 7-7 start is impressive but it’s not because his team is playing much defense. LA is allowing 109.6 PPG and opponents are shooting a league-high 47.5% from the floor against them. The Lakers are a guard oriented team, as starters Russell (16.1 & 4.8 APG) and Young (14.1) are combining for 30.2 PPG, while backups Williams (16.9) and Clarkson (14.6) add a combined 31.5 PPG. PF Randle (14.1 7 8.3) is developing nicely but the center duo of Mozgov and Black adds little, as do most of the LA frontcourt reserves, save Larry Nance Jr. (7.2 & 5.0). The pick: The Thunder have won the past nine meetings and LA’s PG Russell was limited to 23 minutes against the Bulls in the team’s last game due to a sore left knee. He had just eight points on 3-of-11 shooting against Chicago and didn't participate in Monday's practice. I’ll stay away from the side. LA home games have averaged 225.0 PPG and not surprisingly, six of the seven have gone over. That’s why this over/under number is so high. However, OKC is just 2-2 SU (1-3 ATS) on the road and has had real issues scoring away from home, averaging just 93.0 PPG. The Under is a 10* play. |
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11-21-16 | Blackhawks v. Oilers UNDER 5.5 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: the 13-4-2 Chicago Blackhawks will be in Edmonton tonight to take on the 10-8-1 Oilers. When the circus comes to Chicago's United Center every November, it forces both the Blackhawks and the NBA's Bulls on extended road trips. Rogers Place will be the fourth stop on a seven-game trek for the Blackhawks, who head to California after this contest. Edmonton got off to a surprising 7-1-0 start (Oilers were just 31-43-8 last season) but has returned to Earth quite quickly, with a 3-7-1 stretch that included a five-game losing streak from Nov. 7 through Nov. 17. Chicago: Marian Hossa's overtime goal was Saturday’s game-winner and was the second straight game-winning tally for the future Hall of Famer (510 career goals, team-best 11 this season), who told reporters: "We didn’t panic. We knew there was still 20 minutes and this team’s able to score three goals in a period. We just had to get step by step, one by one.” Hossa has eight goals, including three game-winners, and two assists in 10 games this month (Blackhawks are 8-1-1). Corey Crawford (9-4-2, 2.17 goals-against average, .928), who has alternated losses and wins in his last four starts, is expected back in goal after playing Friday and giving way to backup Scott Darling on Saturday. Edmonton: The Oilers have been a doormat in recent seasons but the team’s 7-1-0 start has seen them be at or near the top of the Pacific Division for much of this season. The team’s 5-2 Saturday win at Dallas snapped a five-game slide, highlighted byConnor McDavid's first career hat trick. He leads Edmonton with eight goals and 14 assists through 19 games but he has failed to score a goal in four consecutive home games. Cam Talbot (9-7-1, 2.62, .916) snapped a personal four-game slide Saturday after allowing 14 goals during that span and is the likely starter Monday. The pick: Crawford and Talbot will see to it that this game stays under, which I’m making a 10* play. |
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11-21-16 | Grizzlies v. Hornets OVER 194.5 | Top | 105-90 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: The 8-5 Memphis Grizzlies visit the 8-4 Charlotte Hornets, who opened the season 6-1 but have gone a more modest 2-3 their last five. Meanwhile, Memphis will take a four-game winning streak into Monday night’s game, a stretch in which the Grizzlies have allowed just 84.5 PPG. Memphis: First-year Memphis head coach David Fizdale had an important film session a week ago. It featured footage of a 10-point loss in Milwaukee that dropped the Grizzlies to 4-5, highlighting many of the defensive deficiencies on a team known for defending. The Grizzlies had allowed over 100 points six times in their first nine games but ever-since, things have improved, especially defensively. I noted the four-game average of 84.5 PPG allowed but in back-to-back wins against the Mavericks and Timberwolves, Memphis has allowed 64 and 71 points, respectively, while holding those two opponents to a combined 33.6 percent shooting (46-of-137). PG Conley leads the team in scoring (18.3) and assists (5.9), while center Gasol is second in scoring at 17.5 PPG. PF Zach Randolph is no longer a starter (he’s come off the bench in all 12 games) but he’s still the team's third-leading scorer (14.5) and its top rebounder (8.0). Charlotte: The Hornets are also one of the league's better defensive teams, allowing 101.2 PPG (11th) on 43.3% shooting (5th). However, the Hornets blew a 14-point lead through the opening minute of the fourth quarter on Saturday at New Orleans and wound up losing 121-116 in OT (A.D. scored 38 points!). Charlotte gave up 23 fast break points, 14 three-pointers and committed 15 turnovers. "There's a difference between doing the right thing and losing and then not doing the right thing that allows the other team to get going," Hornets coach Steve Clifford said. "So, that's what's disappointing is if we're going to be the team I think we can be, you can't play like that." Kemba Walker (25.3-4.3-5.5) scored 25 points on 10-of-25 shooting, marking the 11th straight game he reached 20 points. Reserve Marco Belinelli (9.8) added 22 points and Frank Kaminsky (10.7) had 15. Batum, a FA signee from Portland two years ago, continues to be terrific, averaging 14.6-6.8-5.0. The pick: Charlotte took both meetings last season, including a 123-99 win in Memphis on Dec. 11, 2015 The Hornets are 7-2 ATS when favored this year and while the Memphis defense has been suffocating recently, I believe the Hornets, who are 5-1 to the over in six home games this season (averaging 107.3 PPG), will control the game’s flow. The Over is a 10* play. |
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11-20-16 | Patriots v. 49ers OVER 51 | Top | 30-17 | Loss | -105 | 49 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: The Pats won Brady’s first four games back from suspension but lost at home last Sunday night 31-24 to the Seahawks. New England now travels cross-country to take on the hapless San Francisco 49ers, who after a season-opening 28-0 shutout of the Rams, have lost eight straight games, failing to cover the first seven before getting the ATS win in last Sunday's 23-20 loss in Arizona. New England: TE Rob Gronkowski was injured by a hit from Seattle's Earl Thomas last Sunday night but came back and finished the game. A report surfaced on Monday that he suffered a punctured lung but then Tuesday another report said it was a bruised sternum. Either way, he was ruled out of this game against the 49ers on Friday. Obviously, Gronk's absence makes the powerful New England offense weaker but the San Francisco defense ranks last (32nd) in both points allowed with 31.4 per game and yards allowed with 429.7 YPG. Also, let’s not forget that Brady still has the luxury of throwing to backup TE Martellus Bennett, who made seven catches for 102 yards against Seattle. “Look, I’ve started the majority of my career," Bennett, who has three 100-yard performances this season, told reporters. "Starting in a football game is just football. It doesn’t matter how I play or when I play. It’s just the same thing.” New England should also feature a heavy dose of LeGarrette Blount, who has a roller coaster like season but faces a San Francisco rush D which allows 180.4 YPG (again, 32nd) on 5.1 YPC. San Francisco: I wonder if the 49ers’ brass is re-thinking the team's quick hiring of Chip Kelly, after the Eagles let him go. The defense is a ‘nightmare’ and while his specialty is offense, the 49ers ranks 29th in total offense (310.8 YPG) and 27th in scoring (20.8 PPG). Whether it’s been Gabbert or Kaepernick as the starting QB, the team ranks 30th in passing (191.2 YPG). However, with Colin Kaepernick always a threat to take off with the football (228 rushing yards on 7.1 YPC), San Francisco does rank 7th in rushing (119.6 YPG). That said, New England’s defense has played well all season, ranking sixth in points allowed, at 18.1 per game. The pick: New England is averaging 32.0 since Brady returned and heading into the Seattle game, he had 12 TDs and not a single INT. He did throw for 316 yards against an excellent Seattle defense but he did not have a TD pass and threw his first interception of the season (only one in 166 attempts in five games). His QB rating is 125.5 but 133.9 in his four victories. He should have a field day against the SF defense but note that Chip Kelly led the Eagles into Gillette Stadium last year and won, scoring 35 points! Kaepernick owns an 82.2 QB rating to Gabbert’s 69.6 and with his ability to run, just should be able to score enough points to push this total over the number. The Over is a 10* play. |
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11-20-16 | Hawks v. Knicks OVER 210 | Top | 94-104 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: It’s a 12 noon ET tip-off at Madison Square Garden Sunday afternoon, as the 9-3 Atlanta Hawks take on the 5-7 NY Knicks. The Hawks lost Al Horford to the Celtics in free agency but brought in Dwight Howard as his replacement and so far, so good. Horford’s only played three games for the Celtics, while Howard is averaging 14.4 & 12.9. Atlanta traded PG Jeff Teague to Indiana and promoted Dennis Schroder to take his place, with Schroder becoming Atlanta’s second-leading scorer (15.7 PPG) while also leading the team with 5.9 APG. There were big changes in New York as well, adding three new starters in PG Rose and center Noah from Chicago plus SG Lee from Charlotte and Jennings (from Orlando) to come off the bench. However, the 5-7 Knicks hardly look like a playoff contender so far. Atlanta: The Hawks are clearly one of the early season surprises. PF Paul Millsap (17.3 & 8.0) leads the team in scoring, one which ranks 2nd in the NBA in FG percentage (47.9%). Atlanta is second in assists (26.2 per) and first in turnovers forced (17.6 per), which is helped by them being second in steals (10.2 per). Dwight Howard has resurrected his career in Atlanta after several so-so seasons with the Houston Rockets and one year with the Los Angeles Lakers. The 31-year-old center is fourth in the league in field-goal percentage (60.6%), third in rebounding (12.9) and already has posted nine double-doubles. New York: Head coach Jeff Hornacek in his first season with the Knicks but is still searching for a way to blend his new pieces with Carmelo Anthony and Kristaps Porzingis. ‘Melo averages 22.3 & 5.5 and Porzingis is averaging 20.8 & 6.8. He’s 7-3 and is listed as a power forward but with his ability to hit mid to long-range jumpers, score on tip-ins and dunks and run the floor like a gazelle, has created headaches for opposing coaches and their players.He is making 49.2% from the floor, including 40.0% on threes. Meanwhile, Derrick Rose scored a season-high 27 points on Thursday but it marked the sixth time in as many occasions that New York has lost when he scored 16 points or more. Fellow former Chicago Bull Joakim Noah (4.3 & 8.9) continues to struggle as well and has scored in double figures just once in the first 12 games. The pick: Atlanta looked like it was headed toward a seventh straight win on Friday but then Howard was ejected midway through the fourth quarter for throwing an elbow at the head of Hornets center Cody Zeller and the Hawks lost, 100-96. I like the way the Hawks are playing on the offensive end plus the Knicks are not much of a defensive team, ranking 21st in both points allowed and opponents’ FG percentage. The Over is a 10* play. |
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11-19-16 | Jets v. Bruins OVER 5 | Top | 1-4 | Push | 0 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: The 9-8-2 Winnipeg Jets paly the the 10-7-0 Boston Bruins tonight in Boston. The Jets are hopeful that Boston’s home woes continue, as while the Bruins have won a league-leading seven road games, they are only 3-3-0 at home. Winnipeg: Goalie Connor Hellebuyck has started seven of the past eight games but was shaky Thursday in allowing four goals in a 5-2 loss at Philadelphia. Jets head coach Paul Maurice says he will play both goalies -- Hellebuyck and Mike Hutchinson -- over the weekend, as the Jets play at Carolina on Sunday. However, Hellebuyck played collegiately at UMass-Lowell and comes "home" in facing the Boston Bruins at TD Garden. You know Hellebuyck wants another shot at the Bruins. He lost to Boston 4-1 in Winnipeg back on Oct. 17. Boston: Bruins goalie Tuukka Rask has been outstanding in goal, posting a 10-2-0 record with a 1.49 goals against average and a .947 save percentage. Boston has allowed allowed only four goals in its past four games but the offense sputtered on its recent three-game road trip, scoring only four goals on 100 shots (finished the trip 2-1-0, losing 1-0 to Minnesota). The pick. Maybe at first blush the under looks like the play but note that Hellebuyck is 0-2 with a 4.55 goals against average and just a .829 save percentage in two games against the Bruins, plus the Bruins have scored five and four goals in their only two home games here in November. The Over is a 10* play. |
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11-19-16 | Arkansas v. Mississippi State UNDER 60.5 | Top | 58-42 | Loss | -115 | 53 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: It’s been a roller coaster ride for Arkansas its last four games, beating Ole Miss 34-30, losing 56-3 to Auburn, beating Florida 31-10 and then losing 38-10 last week to LSU. The 6-4 Razorback now visit Starkville to take on Mississippi St, a team which beat them last year 51-50, a game in which the teams combined for over 1,100 yards of total offense. The Bulldogs are just 4-6 in 2016 though, after losing 51-3 last Saturday to No. 1 Alabama. Arkansas: QB Austin Allen has thrown for 2,501 yards and 20 TDs (against 10 INTs) and was the SEC’s pass efficiency leader at midseason but he’s been inconsistent since suffering a knee injury in the Auburn loss back on Oct. 22. He’s completing 60.5% on the season but just 54.0% over his last three games, throwing just two TD passes with four INTs (he had 18 TD passes through seven games!). RB Rawleigh Williams III surpassed the 1,000-yard rushing mark last week for the Razorbacks (1,004 yards on 5.2 YPC) but he had just 22 yards against Auburn and 49 last week vs. LSU. Speaking of running the football, the Arkansas defense has plenty of soul-searching to do after allowing LSU to run for 390 yards last Saturday, on 6.3 YPC! Mississippi State: The Bulldogs miss Dak Prescott, who someone told me is doing just fine with the Dallas Cowboys. Sophomore QB Nick Fitzgerald is a dual-threat like Dak and already has 854 yards rushing on 5.8 YPC with eight TDs. However, while Dak completed 66.2% with a 29-5 ratio, Fitzgerald is completing only 53.3% with a 16-10 ratio. The Bulldogs average 214.2 YPG on the ground (30th) but neither Fitzgerald nor the running game was efficient against the Crimson Tide, failing to score a TD in nine trips into Alabama territory. The defense allows 31.9 PPG (92nd) on 434.6 YPG (84th). The pick: All four of Arkansas’ losses have come to ranked teams, No. 16 Auburn, No. 1 Alabama, No. 22 Texas A&M and No. 14 LSU. As for Miss. St, the Bulldogs are playing their first unranked opponent since Oct. 1, when they defeated Alcorn State (an FCS school). Miss. St. has won four straight meetings with the last three decided by seven points or less. Another close game is expected but unlike last year’s shootout, the Under is a 10* play in this one. |
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11-18-16 | Clippers v. Kings OVER 204.5 | Top | 121-115 | Win | 100 | 15 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: The Los Angeles Clippers suffered a 111-107 OT loss to the Memphis Grizzlies on Wednesday at Staples Center, ending a seven-game winning streak to fall to 10-2. Meanwhile, the 4-8 Sacramento Kings have dropped three straight contests, including two in a row at their new home (Golden 1 Center). The Kings’ slide began when they let a 19-point lead get away against the Lakers at home on Nov. 10. They then lost 122-120 in OT at Portland and this past Wednesday at home to San Antonio, 110-105. LA Clippers: Shooting guard J.J. Redick (14.6 PPG) felt the end of the team’s seven-game winning streak serves as a needed blow. "Sometimes you forget when you win a series of games by a lot, you forget how hard it is to win in this league," Redick said after the defeat. "And the other thing is sometimes you get a little comfortable and you forget what makes you good." Clippers forward Blake Griffin (20.6 & 9.3 said after the game, "It's a learning point. It's a lesson. Putting ourselves in such a big hole makes late game (situations) so intense for every little thing. It messes you up. I think it's good. We love to win them all, but it will be good for us." The 111 points allowed (in regulation) was an aberration, as per NBA.com, the Clippers allow 94.6 points per 100 possessions, the best mark in the league (LA ranks second in points allowed at 93.8 and 1st in defensive FG percentage at 41.5%). They've held nine of their 12 opponents below 100 point. Sacramento: The Kings have two big time scorers in center Cousins (26.6 & 9.3) and SF Gay (21.3 & 6.3) but they’ve struggled to find a consistent third scorer. The bottom line is, the Kings just don’t have enough quality players to be a playoff team. Even worse, the Kings seemed disinterested early against San Antonio, allowing 16 points in the paint and turning over the ball four times in the opening 12 minutes. They also fell behind 25-13 in an overtime loss at Portland on Nov. 11. “We've got to get off to better starts," head coach Dave Joerger said. Of the team's effort early on at Portland he added, "I thought that was just horrendous." The pick: LA’s great defensive numbers keep this total reasonably low and note that led by Griffin (see above) and Paul (18.3 & 8.3 APG), the Clippers average 108.7 PPG. Los Angeles is a perfect 5-0 on the road (4-1 ATS) and three of the victories have come by double digits. The Kings have struggled to defend the three-pointer, allowing opponents to shoot 34.5 percent (15th), while the Clippers knock down 37.4 percent from distance, the fourth-best mark in the NBA. The 10-2 Clippers bring the NBA's best record to Sacramento on Friday night and they will have had 48 hours to stew since seeing their seven-game winning streak snapped. The Over is an 8* play. |
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11-18-16 | UNLV v. Boise State OVER 66 | Top | 25-42 | Win | 100 | 75 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: UNLV is 3-6 and heading for another season without going ‘bowling,’ something Las Vegas fans have grown accustomed to. The Rebels have been to just four bowls in school history, including two since 2000. However, UNLV did Boise State a YUGE favor last Saturday, with a 69-66 triple-overtime home victory over Wyoming. That result revived the Broncos’ chances in the Mountain Division of the MWC conference. The 9-1 Broncos, who are currently the highest ranked Group of 5 school in the CFP rankings (at No. 20) but they are far from a lock to play in the MWC title game, tied with New Mexico and Wyoming at 5-1 UNLV: UNLV rolled up 653 yards of total offense, the second most in school history, and just pummeled the Cowboys rush D, running for 401 yards on 6.3 YPC. Junior QB Kurt Palandech made his first start of the season and excelled by accounting for four TDs (three passing, one rushing) while establishing career highs for passing yardage (252) and rushing yardage (157). He will get the start again here but UNLV’s lone pass-catching threat, Devonte Boyd (45 receptions for 746 yards and four TDs), was lost for the season with a broken left arm. Nobody else on the Rebels has more than 13 receptions or reached the modest total of 200 receiving yards. Boise State: The Broncos have a quality QB in Brett Rypien (65.0% / 2,916 yards / 22-6 ratio) and a superb RB in Jeremy McNichols, who has run for 1.369 yards (fifth nationally) on 5.7 YPC with 18 TDs. He’s added 31 catches on 13.8 YPC with four TDs.His 22 TDs are tops in the nation. Unlike UNLV, Boise State owns two quality WRs in senior Thomas Sperbeck (62 catches for 1,023 yards) and junior Cedrick Wilson (44 for 827), who have both own nine TD receptions. The pick: Typically, a team traveling back from Hawaii is at a disadvantage (like Boise State is here) but that’s negated by UNLV coming off its stunning triple-OT win a vs. Wyoming, which was the third-highest scoring game in FBS history. UNLV intends to run the ball a lot and that could pose a problem for the Broncos who allowed a whopping 382 to New Mexico earlier this season. Also, the Broncos have just seven takeaways (five interceptions, two fumbles) on the season, tied for 126th nationally out of 128 FBS schools. That means the Rebels should score and no way Boise State doesn’t get its fair share against a UNLV defense that allowed this Boise State team 55 points on 705 yards last year in Las Vegas. Here on that famous “Blue Turf,” the Over is a 10* play. |
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11-17-16 | Coyotes v. Canucks OVER 5 | Top | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
The set-up: The 5-9-1 Arizona Coyotes take on the 6-10-1 Vancouver Canucks Thursday night at Rogers Arena. The Canucks lost 7-2 to the New York Rangers at home Tuesday night, the team’s 11th defeat over its last 13 games, as head coach Willie Desjardins seat is getting pretty warm. Arizona comes in having lost four of five, including three in a row. Arizona: The Coyotes received good news on Wednesday when goaltender Mike Smith returned after being sidelined for 12 games with a lower-body injury. Center Martin Hanzal, who was out since Nov. 1 with a lower-body injury, also returned against the Flames. Smith made 22 saves in his first appearance since Oct. 18 but was let down by the Coyotes' offense in a 2-1 OT loss, as Arizona has now scored a total of just four goals during its three-game winless stretch. Vancouver: The Canucks were thrilled to see the team's schedule have them open with four straight home games and the Canucks took advantage, winning all four games. However, that’s all in the past, as the team is 2-10-1, since. It sure makes it hard to win when you’ve given up 27 goals (4.5 per) the last six games. The pick: Smith is not expected to play on consecutive nights after missing nearly a month, so that leaves Louis Domingue, who has a 3.42 GAA and an .899 save percentage. Vancouver should get more than a few past him and the way the Canucks have been allowing goals, the Over is a 10* play. |
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11-17-16 | Saints v. Panthers UNDER 52 | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 51 h 32 m | Show |
The 3-6 Carolina Panthers host the 4-5 New Orleans Saints on Thursday night and both NFC South rivals find themselves “on the brink.” Neither team has any time to bemoan their latest misfortunes. The Saints were primed to knock off the Denver Broncos on Sunday but instead of a go-ahead extra-point kick, the attempt was blocked and returned for a two-point defensive conversion, resulting in a 25-23 New Orleans' loss. As for the Panthers, they blew a 17-point lead and had two fourth-quarter turnovers that allowed the Kansas City Chiefs to escape with a 20-17 victory, winning on a FG with 0:00 left on the clock. I’d say ONE team has to win Thursday night but we’ve already had three OT ties in NFL 2016. New Orleans: The ageless Drew Brees is completing 69.9 percent for 322.7 YPG, which leaves the Saints No. 1 in passing yards. He’s got 24 TDs and just 7 INTs, giving him a 107.7 QB rating. WR Brandin Cooks enjoyed a career day in his previous encounter with Carolina, highlighting his career-high 173-yard performance with an 87-yard touchdown. That score began a string of four TDs in the last five game, as Cooks leads the team with six TDs and 694 yards receiving on 44 catches. Also fellow WR Michael Thomas leads rookies in catches (51), receiving yards (613) and TD receptions (five) plus Willie Snead, a former member of the Panthers' practice squad, had two TDs on Sunday to give him four on the season among his 40 catches. New Orleans does all of this (averaging 29.4 PPG to rank 2nd) with a running game that produces just 105.1 YPG (16th) on 4.1 YPC. The defense is another story, as it ranks 30th in points allowed (29.2 per) on 400.6 YPG (29th). Carolina: As all know, the Panthers were 15-1 last year and reached the Super Bowl, so explaining this year’s 3-6 record is not easy. However, a good place to start is that Carolina’s 19 giveaways are tied for third-worst in the NFL and the team’s TO margin of minus-7 is 4th-worst. Newton is not the dominating presence he was last season as the league MVP, as the offense has gone from a league-best 31.3 PPG in 2015, to scoring 24.6 PPG in 2016, to rank 12th. The defense, hardly helped by all the giveaways, has gone from allowing 19.3 PPG to giving up 25.1 PPG (23rd). Any Super Bowl hangover for the Panthers is far in the past because the team is in danger of missing the playoffs altogether this season. "There's no need to panic," Carolina quarterback Cam Newton said. "When you look at it, whatever our record is, it's not good. But yet we have a locker room full of winners and a locker room full of guys full of fight and I know I am willing to go to battle with those guys. I can't wait until Thursday." The pick: Both teams still have some long-shot hopes in the NFC South, as the Falcons are again wobbling after a strong start. Atlanta opened 5-0 in 2015 only to finish 8-8 and after starting 4-1 in 2016, Atlanta's loss at Philly last Sunday leaves them at 6-4. The Saints are just one game back in the loss column and the Panthers two games back. When these teams met in Week 6, it was a 41-38 shootout. This time around, expect a much lower scoring game. Note that Carolina’s last two games have been a 13-10 win and a 20-17. The Under is a 10* play. |
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11-16-16 | Grizzlies v. Clippers OVER 201.5 | Top | 111-107 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: The 10-1 LA Clippers own the NBA’s best record and despite an 85-83 loss at home to the Thunder, have outscored teams here at Staples Center by an average of 20.5 PPG (106.5-to-85.8). Overall, they have outscored the opposition by 183 points, the largest differential in the NBA. The 5-5 Memphis Grizzles are in the midst of a four-game road trip. After a 106-96 setback at Milwaukee to open the trip, they bounced back with a 102-96 win Monday over the Jazz in Utah. It was the Grizzlies' first win away from home after three defeats. Memphis: The Grizzlies still own the solid inside duo of Gasol (18.6 & 6.0) and Randolph (14.2 & 8.1), although PG Conley (18.7-6.3 APG) is now considered the team-leader. Memphis has struggled on offense, averaging 97.5 PPG, which ranks 25th in the NBA. However, first-year head coach David Fizdale said after Monday’s win, "I feel like this is the best four quarters we've put together. They want to win. They really want this, and we worked really hard over the last couple of days to clean things up."Memphis center Pau Gasol added, "The first half was really good as far as percentage goes. The second half we became a little more static but were able to find the open guy and execute a little bit, especially down the stretch." LA Clippers: Los Angeles is the best defensive team in the NBA in the early stages of the season, ranking No. 1 in both points allowed (92.2 PPG) and opponents’ FG percentage (40.9%). The Clippers scored a season-high 127 points in routing the Nets on Monday but the players were still pointing to the defense as the main factor. "It was definitely our defense," Clippers center DeAndre Jordan told reporters after the rout of the Nets. "We were limiting those guys to one shot. Our defense really has an effect on the offense. If we come out and are not scoring or our shots are not falling, we can still come out and play defense and still get stops." Griffin (20.2 & 9.5) and Paul (19.2 & 8.5 APG) are the main guys but LA has great backcourt depth plus center Jordan (10.5 & 12.4) and the newly-acquired Speights (9.5 & 4.5) up front. The pick: LA’s early season defensive numbers keeps this over/under low but remember, the Clippers average 106.5 PPG at home. Also, Memphis coach Fizdale's goal is to move Memphis to a faster pace and away from the plodding style of recent seasons. “I still want it to be gritty,” he said. “ I just don't want our offense to be in a grind. I want to be able to get the ball up the court and score more points. Our field-goal attempts are where they need to be, we just aren't shooting the ball great." My 8* play is on the Over. |
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11-16-16 | Ball State v. Toledo UNDER 66.5 | Top | 19-37 | Win | 100 | 25 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: Toledo is 8-2 overall (5-1 in the MAC West) as it gets set to host Ball State (4-6 overall, 1-5 in the MAC West) on Wednesday night at the Glass Bowl. Toledo football has maintained a winning standard for seven seasons (from 2010 through the current season of 2016) through three head-coaching changes and the departure of countless players. The Rockets have won nine games three times since 2010 and 10 games once but Toledo has not won a MAC championship since 2004. In fact, Toledo has yet to even reach a MAC title game since that 2004 championship year. Ball State won 12 games back in 2008 and 10 games in 2013 but needs to win its final two games of 2016 to avoid a third consecutive losing season (Cardinals were 5-7 and 3-9 the last two seasons). Ball State: The Cardinals visit Toledo off a heartbreaking loss a week ago Tuesday at home to Eastern Michigan. Ball State jumped out to a 21-3 lead early, rallied after falling behind 40-28, and ultimately landed on the wrong side of a 48-41 final. Eastern Michigan reached bowl eligibility for the first time in nearly two decades by virtue of the win, while Ball State needs to win its final two games to get bowl eligible after a two-year drought. The Cardinals' best bet to stay competitive with Toledo is to establish RB James Gilbert (1,196 yards on 5.4 YPC with 12 TDs) early, then throw in some low-risk passes to keep the Toledo defense honest. However, Gilbert suffered a leg injury against the Eagles and is listed as questionable. QB Neal runs well (359 rushing yards and 7 TDs) but is a mediocre thrower at best, passing for a modest 2,093 yards (Ball St. ranks 70th in passing yards) with 10 TDs and 11 INTs. The Ball State defense allows 30.3 PPG (78th). Toledo: The Rockets own excellent offensive balance, as QB Logan Woodside completes 70.8% for 3,328 yards with 37 TDs and just six INTs. Those numbers rank among CFBs best. He's averaging more passing yards per game than Baker Mayfield (Okla.), has more TD passes than Patrick Mahomes (TT), and has a better touchdown-to-interception ratio than Luke Falk (Wash. St.). RB Kareem Hunt has 1,048 yards on the ground, averaging 5.2 YPC with 7 TDs. The Toledo defense has done a nice job this year, holding opponents to 22.9 PPG (34th). The pick: Toledo’s only losses have come on a last second FG by BYU in a 55-53 defeat and a five-point home loss to Ohio (the Bobcats’ first win in Toledo since 1967!). Toledo needs to win here so when it travels to MAC West-leading and No. 14-ranked Western Michigan the day after Thanksgiving, the winner of that contest would be off to the MAC championship game. However, Ball State may not be a pushover, as five of Ball State’s six losses have been decided by 10 points or less. Toledo may play this “close to the vest” and my play is a 10* on the Under. |
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11-15-16 | Lightning v. Red Wings UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: The 9-6-1 Tampa Bay Lightning are coming off a big win (4-0 over the NY Islanders Monday night in Brooklyn) while the 8-7-1 Detroit Red Wings will be trying to rebound from a 5-0 drubbing at the hands of the Canadiens in Montreal on Saturday night, the team’s biggest and most embarrassing loss of the season. Tampa Bay: The Lightning shut out the Islander last night but but goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy had to make 34 saves, including 20 in the third period. “We sat back probably a little too much in the third and put (Vasilevskiy) in a tough position to make some big saves and earn that shutout," Tampa Bay captain Steve Stamkos said. "But the first two periods were pretty good." Stamkos had two assists, Nikita Kucherov a goal and an assist and J.T. Brown, Ryan Callahan and Vladislav Namestnikov also scored for the Lightning. Ben Bishop (5-5-0, 2.93 GAA & .903 save percentage) will be in net Tuesday for Tampa Bay, hoping to halt his personal two-game skid. Detroit: The loss to Montreal exposed Detroit's inability to win puck battles. So, one-on-one drills were the focus of Monday's practice at Joe Louis Arena. "Every guy in this room can be a little better and it starts with one-on-one battles," center Luke Glendening said. "You've got to be better than the guy across from you. It's in the offensive zone, it's in the defensive zone, it's at our net, at their net, face-offs." Red Wings head coach Jeff Blashill told www.mlive.com that his team got "slapped in the face in the 5-0 loss at Montreal Saturday." Petr Mrazek (4-4-1, 3.06 GAA & .908 save percentage) is expected to be the starter for Detroit tonight in goal. The pick: The Lightning are playing 16 back-to-back sets this season. They lost both ends of their first back on Oct. 29 (New Jersey) and 30 (New York Rangers) but have a chance to win both here. The Red Wings figure to be very focused off their loss to Montreal and this sets up as an Under and I’ll make it a 10* play. |
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11-14-16 | Bengals v. Giants OVER 47 | Top | 20-21 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: The 3-4-1 Cincinnati Bengals (3-4-1) opened the 2016 season by beating the Jets 23-22 at MetLife Stadium in Week 1 and now “return to scene of the crime” to take on the 5-3 NY Giants in the same venue, for a Week 10 MNF matchup. A win by the Bengals will leave them just a half-game back of the Ravens in the NFC North, a division which currently has just one team above .500, with the division as a whole owning fewer wins (12) than any in the NFL. In stark contrast, the Giants find themselves in a division (NFC East) in which all four teams own at least five wins and a victory would still leave the two games behind the first-place 8-1 Dallas Cowboys. Cincinnati: QB Andy Dalton was enjoying a career year in 2015 when he got hurt in Week 14 against the Steelers and never returned for the regular season’s final three games or Cincy’s heartbreaking wild card loss to the Steelers. Dalton had a streak of four straight games with a 100-plus QB rating snapped in London, where the Bengals and the Redskins played to a 27-all tie. However, he’s completed 68.2% over that five-game span, averaging 282.2 YPG through the air with 7 TDs and just 1 INT (he’s also run for 2 TDs). Star wide receiver A.J. Green is second in the NFL with 896 yards, including three games with at least 169 yards plus the offense received an added boost with the return of TE Tyler Eifert against the Redskins, who had played in just one previous game this season. Eifert had 13 TD catches last season and showed what a difference-maker he can be in his first start with nine catches for 102 yards and a TD. A problem all season has been a defense which allowed only 17.4 PPG in 2015, has allowed just about a TD more per game here in 2016, at 23.6. NY Giants: The Giants opened 2-0, then lost three straight but now gets set to host the MNF game against the Bengals on a three-game winning streak. Eli had just five TD passes through New York’s first five games but has seven in the team’s three-game winning streak. Odell Beckham Jr. may be one of the league's biggest jerks but he’s also among its most talented players. He didn’t have a single TD catch among his 22 receptions through New York’s first four games but while he also owns 22 catches in his last four contests, he’s managed five TD grabs! Eli and Co. do all this with ZERO help from a running game averaging an NFL-worst 68.2 YPG on 3.2 YPC. Overall, the defense is much improved from last year’s unit (27.6 PPG), allowing 20.5 PPG to rank 11th. The pick: Sometimes, it pays not to over-think. This MNF matchup pits two top-notch QBs who will be facing struggling pass defenses. The Bengals allow 262.4 YPG (20th), as well as giving up 16 TD passes with just 7 INTs, while the Giants allow 277.4 YPG (27th) and come in tied for a league-low 11 sacks generated. After Monday night, both offenses should be even higher in the league offensive rankings, making the Over a 10* play. |
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11-14-16 | Lightning v. Islanders OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: The only game on the NHL ice for Monday is the 8-6-1 Tampa Bay Lightning visiting Brooklyn to take on the 5-7-3 New York Islanders. The Lightning have alternated wins with losses over the last six games (3-2-1), a stretch that comes on the heels of a four-game losing streak (0-4-0). The Islanders (5-7-3) are having the same issues, albeit on a more serious scale. New York has won consecutive games just once all season and has lost seven of its last 10 (3-4-3). Tampa Bay: The Lightning are just two points behind third-place Ottawa in the Atlantic Division and tied with the Detroit Red Wings for the final wild card spot, despite the team’s recent up and down stretch. The Lightning fell to the San Jose Sharks, 3-1 on Saturday night prompting center Steven Stamkos (who leads the team with 17 points) to say after the game, “We need to get some consistency in our game -- we haven't seen that, we play good game, bad game. We just haven't put any good ones in a row." Tampa’s No. 1 goalie Ben Bishop has started three of the last four games for the Lightning (took the loss on Saturday) but he earned the win over the Islanders in Tampa Bay last Thursday, when he stopped 26 shots in a 4-1 victory that improved his career record against New York to 6-4-1. NY Islanders: New York blew a two-goal third period lead this past Saturday and lost 3-2 to the Florida Panthers in overtime. The Islanders have either led or been tied in the third period in seven of their 10 losses. They gave up the game-tying goal with 13.6 seconds remaining in regulation on Saturday night. Islanders goalie Jaroslav Halak has cemented his standing by starting the last six games but note her was pulled for backup Thomas Greiss in the second period this past Thursday, when he stopped just 13 of 16 shots. The loss dropped Halak's record against the Lightning to 4-3-0. The pick: New York’s special teams are struggling, converting only 5-of-44 power-play opportunities, while the team has also given up 12 power-play goals in the last nine games, residing near the bottom of the league at 78 percent overall. Tampa Bay has outscored the Islanders 10-2 in a pair of victories this season, extending its winning streak over them to six, including the final four of their Eastern Conference semifinal playoff series last May. The Lightning have averaged 4.2 goals per game in those six wins and that makes this an 8* play on the Over. |
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11-13-16 | Cowboys v. Steelers UNDER 50 | Top | 35-30 | Loss | -110 | 120 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cowboys lost Tony Romo in the preseason and opened the 2016 season with rookie Dak Prescott as their starter. Dallas lost 20-19 in Week 1 at home to the Giants but Prescott, along with fellow rookie RB Ezekiel Elliott and a stout defense (Dallas is allowing 17.5 PPG to rank 5th), have allowed the Cowboys to win seven consecutive games, while covering each and every one. Dallas visits Pittsburgh on Sunday to face the Steelers, who after opening 4-1, have lost three in a row and now at 4-4, need a win to tie the 5-4 Ravens for the top spot in the AFC North. Dallas: Tony Romo finally returned to practice and owner/GM Jerry Jones and head coach Jason Garrett said his workload would be ramped up as the team is encouraged by the 36-year-old's progress. "We just have to see where he is," Garrett told reporters. "Tony's practiced four days over the last couple of weeks and has been involved in part of practices on each of those days. We'll do something similar with him today. He'll start in individuals and see how he does. He'll be working some scout-team reps like he did last week.” However, Dallas owns two of the league's most prolific weapons in rookie QB Dak Prescott (66.5%, 12-2 ratio & 104.2 QB rating) and RB Ezekiel Elliott (891 yards on 5.0 YPC with 7 TDs). Pittsburgh: Big Ben did not play well in his return to the field last week at Baltimore and RB Le'Veon Bell had just 32 yards rushing on 14 carries. Pittsburgh’s rushing game ranks 25th at 96.0 YPG on 4.2 YPC. It has to improve for Big Ben to be more effective. However, Dallas allows just 86.9 YPG on the ground to rank 6th in the league. The Pittsburgh defense is no longer a vintage outfit and will up against Dallas’ No. 1-ranked rushing game (165.2 YPG on 4.8 YPC) and a hot QB in Prescott. The pick: Dallas owns a two-game lead in the NFC East over the Giants and just may be a little complacent. Meanwhile, the Steelers really need a win to keep pace with the Ravens. Dallas will look to control the ball on the ground which will ‘eat some clock,’ while the Pittsburgh offense will go up against a Dallas defense that hasn't allowed a 100-yard rusher or 100-yard receiver this year. It now ranks 10th in total defense, allowing 332.9 yards per game. Dallas is also one of just two teams to have not allowed more than 23 points in any game. The Under is a 10* play. |
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11-12-16 | Army v. Notre Dame OVER 51.5 | Top | 6-44 | Loss | -107 | 96 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: The Fighting Irish played Texas in Austin to open their 2016 season back on Labor Day night. Notre Dame was No. 10 in the AP’s preseason poll and lost to unranked Texas (coming off a 5-7 season) in a thrilling 50-47 double-OT contest. How the mighty have fallen, as Note Dame enters this game 3-6 and would need to win out over its final three games just to become bowl-eligible. Notre Dame comes into this contest against Army at San Antonio off a 28-27 loss last Saturday to Navy in Jacksonville. It marked just Notre Dame’s fourth loss to Navy since 1963. Army comes in 5-4 and the Black Knights are one away from that coveted sixth win and academy’s first bowl berth since 2010 (previous one before that was 1996!). Notre Dame: Brian Kelly was sitting atop the college football world back in 2012 when he led the Irish to a 12-0 regular season and a berth in the BCS championship game against Alabama. ND was outclassed in that contest (lost 42-14 and it wasn’t as close as the final score) and while the school has been bowling each of the last three years since that title-game loss, the school’s three-year run from 2013 through 2015 of 27-12 is good but hardly special. 2016 has been a frustrating season, but QB Kizer is completing 60.4% for 2,261 yards with 19 TDs and 7 INTs. He’s completed 67.7% the last two games, throwing five TDs without an INT. Notre Dame’s defense is hardly a vintage group, allowing 27.7 PPG (67th). Army: Head coach Jeff Monken has done a great job of bringing this program back to prominence, as army will go ‘bowling’ with one more win. Army struggled to get its vaunted rushing attack going in a 31-12 loss to Air Force last Saturday but the Black Knights still rank third in the nation, averaging 320.3 YPG on the ground. Despite often being out-sized, Army’s defense ranks 13th in points allowed (18.1 per) on 288.1 YPG (5th). The pick: The Fighting Irish have claimed 14 straight meetings with Army but the schools have played just twice since 1998 and last met in 2010. Army's last win in the series was a 14-2 triumph at Notre Dame back in 1958! Notre Dame didn’t come close to stopping Navy’s option-offense last week, allowing 320 rushing yards, which is the same amount of rushing yards Army average per game. I believe Army can trade scores with Notre Dame and the Black Knights will have to if they expect to win, as Kizer and Notre Dame should score quite a bit in this one. The Over is a 10* play. |
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11-11-16 | Kings v. Blazers OVER 209.5 | Top | 120-122 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: The 4-5 Sacramento Kings lost last night in the second-half of TNT’s doubleheader, 101-91 at home to the improving LA Lakers. The Kings travel up the coast tonight to take on the 5-4 Portland Trail Blazers, who are coming off their worst performance of the season, a 111-80 beat down by the Clippers Wednesday night at Staples Center. The Blazers trailed 36-16 after one quarter, 50-18 midway through the second quarter and 93-45 late in the third quarter. "We got our (butt) whooped," said PG Damian Lillard, who made 1 of 10 shots from the field and had only one assist in 28 minutes Sacramento: PG Darren Collison was suspended for the season’s first eight games after pleading guilty to misdemeanor domestic battery. He had nine points and four assists while playing 28 minutes off the bench to help the Kings beat New Orleans 102-94 on Tuesday and a modest six points (on 2 of 11 shooting) in last night’s loss. He could be in the starting lineup for the first time on Friday at the Moda Center against Trail Blazers. Center DeMarcus Cousins scored 28 points against the Lakers for his eighth 20-point outing of the campaign and has his own theory for why Sacramento collapsed over the latter half of the contest. "How can I say this?" Cousins told reporters before pausing. "Played a little more tender, I guess you could say." Portland: The Blazers’ loss in LA on Wednesday was a total embarrassment with the team’s outstanding guard duo of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum each scoring just eight points. That followed the duo combining for 71 points the night before in a 124-121 win over Phoenix. Expect Lillard (30.0-5.1-4.2) and McCollum (21.2-4.8-2.8) to bounce back here. The pick: The Trail Blazers went 4-0 against the Kings last season and have won the past six meetings. So far in the young season, Portland is averaging 111.8 PPG at home but allowing 116.5. It should come as no surprise that all four previous home games have gone over the total and therefore no surprise when this one does the same, as well. The Over is a 10* play. |
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11-11-16 | Boston College v. Florida State OVER 48 | Top | 7-45 | Win | 100 | 76 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: Florida State lost 37-34 to Clemson on October 29th, falling to 5-3 on the season and to No. 19 in the AP poll. FSU then found themselves down 20-10 at NC State in the late third quarter last Saturday. A loss would likely mean the Seminoles would drop out of the next AP poll, ending a streak of 79 consecutive weeks in the rankings. A second straight defeat would also mark the first time FSU had lost back-to-back games since the 2011 season, a span of 71 games! However, Dalvin Cook ran for a 10-yard TD on the final pay of the third quarter and the Seminoles added a 4th-quarter TD as well, to pull out a 24-20. Streaks intact! 6-3 FSU (No. 20 in the AP poll and 18 in the CFP rankings) hosts 4-5 (1-5 in ACC play) Boston College on Friday night. Boston College: The Eagles kept finding ways to lose conference games, following up last year's 0-for-the-ACC (eight games) with four league losses this year. Boston College finally ended its 12-game ACC slide with a 21-14 win at NC State on October 29 but the Eagles could not follow up their first ACC victory versus Louisville, allowing Heisman Trophy-favorite Lamar Jackson 416 total yards and seven TDs accounted for in a 52-7 loss. BC’s offense is a work in progress, as QB Patrick Towles has completed only 51 percent of his passes for 1,293 yards (8 TDs / 6 INTs) and the Eagles rank only 88th in the nation in rushing yards (157.6 YPG) on 3.7 YPC. However, despite the Louisville blowout, the defense is giving up 26.2 PPG(57th) on 322.1 YPG (14th), including only 106.1 YPG on the ground, which ranks 8th. Florida State: Freshman QB Deondre Francois has been sacked 26 times but overall, has had a pretty solid season. He’s completed 60.0 percent of his passes for 2,492 yards and while he’s thrown a modest 12 TD passes, he has just four INTs on 295 attempts, an excellent ratio for a first-year starter. The rushing attack ranks 49th with 190.9 YPG (4.8 YPC), led by Dalvin Cook’s 1,134 yards (5.8 YPC) with 12 TDs. The FSU defense is hardly a vintage unit, allowing 28.8 PPG (72nd) on 411.1 YPG (73rd).Cook owns 3,833 yards through three seasons and the junior is now 127 yards away from breaking Warrick Dunn’s record of career rushing yards (it’s a 20-year-old). Cook averages 126 YPG, so look out! The set-up: The Seminoles will be hosting a Friday game in Tallahassee for only the second time ever, and for the first since 1957. As noted above, this year’s FSU defense is not a vintage group (for reference, the team’s 2013 unit sent all 11 starters to the NFL!). I realize that BC's offense ranks 122nd in scoring (19.4 PPG) and 126th on 312.1 YPG but I see them putting up some points here. Cook has struggled against Boston College's defense the last two seasons but he'll be highly motivated with Dunn's record easilly attainable. Deondre Francois may not be Lamar Jackson but note that FSU is averaging 36.6 PPG this season in Tallahassee and I expect them to exceed that here, making the Over a 10* play. |
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11-10-16 | Canucks v. Red Wings OVER 5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: The Vancouver Canucks opened the season with four consecutive home games and began 4-0-0 but then lost nine consecutive games (0-8-1). So what happened this past Tuesday? The Canucks visited MSG to take on the NY Rangers, 8-1-0 to open the new season on home ice and on a five-game overall winning streak, and skated off with a 5-3 win (I had Vancouver plus 1 1/2 goals!). Vancouver wraps up its six-game road trek with a visit to Detroit, taking on the 7-6-1 Red Wings. Detroit ended a five-game skid (0-4-1) of its own on Tuesday, snapping a near-20-year run of futility in Philadelphia (0-11-1) by scoring midway through the third period and netting the lone goal of the shootout of a 3-2 win over the Flyers. Vancouver: The Canucks ended their nine-game (0-8-1) losing streak with Tuesday’s 5-3 victory over the New York Rangers on Tuesday. Vancouver had been outscored 32-12 during the streak. Alexandre Burrows scored twice in the third period for Vancouver. Henrik Sedin and Sven Baertschi each had a goal and an assist for the Canucks, who had 11 players get a point. Detroit: Red Wings head coach Jeff Blashill called Wednesday night's win the team's most complete game in a long time. Andreas Athanasiou's breakaway goal in the third period tied the game at 2-2 and he scored the only goal of the shootout. The pick: Veteran Ryan Miller will be in goal for Vancouver and he’s 1-6-0 on the season (2.75 GAA and .910 save percentage. However, he has allowed 10 goals over his last two outings to see his winless skid extend to six games. He hasn't tasted victory since a 2-1 shootout win over Calgary in the season opener on Oct. 15 and owns a less-than-desirable 4-10-3 career mark and 3.20 goals-against average in 17 meetings with Detroit. Petr Mrazek will be in goal for Detroit and he’s 4-4-1 on the season, with a 3.18 GAA and .904 save percentage. This is the last of a long six-game road trip for Vancouver and don’t expect Joe Louis Arena to be a hospitable venue. Both goalies are vulnerable and the Over is a 10* play. |
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11-09-16 | Bowling Green v. Akron UNDER 72 | Top | 38-28 | Win | 100 | 30 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: The Bowling Green Falcons have dominated the MAC East under head coaches Dave Clawson and Dino Babers the last few years, reaching three consecutive MAC championship games. However, there will certainly not be a fourth straight title game appearance for Bowling Green, as the 1-8 Falcons have taken a monster step back under first-year head coach Mike Jinks. They are winless both in conference play and in fact, against all FBS competition, with the school’s lone win coming 27-26 over North Dakota back on Sept. 10. Akron is 5-5 overall and 3-3 in MAC East play. One more win earns the team bowl eligibility, which is no small feat. After all, last season’s 23-21 bowl win over Utah St. was the school’s first-ever bowl victory in just the school’s second-ever bowl appearance. Bowling Green: Falcons freshman QB James Morgan has a bright future ahead of him, as 13 of his 14 TD passes on the season have come in the team’s last four games, where he’s averaged 300.3 YPG through the air. He’ll face an Akron defense which is highly vulnerable, allowing 35.6 PPG (110th) on 497.0 YPG (121st). However, BG’s defense is a mess, ranking last (128th) among all FBS schools in allowing 45.1 PPG on 505.3 YPG (122nd). If things weren’t already bad enough for Bowling Green, the Falcons have committed 26 turnovers, second-most behind Kansas’ 29. QBs James Morgan and James Knapke have combined for 22 interceptions, the most of any one team in the nation. Akron: QB Thomas Woodson has thrown for nearly 2,076 yards, despite missing two games in MAC play with a shoulder injury. Prior to the injury, Woodson had three games with at least three TD passes but he's yet to break that mark since returning. He’ll go up against the sieve-like Bowling Green defense, which is allowing 278.2 YPG (122nd) through the air. The Zips’ MAC East title hopes are not yet ‘dead’ but back-to-back losses have put Akron in a tough spot. Making matters worse, the Zips weren’t all that competitive in either contest. Buffalo hadn’t won a conference game until beating Akron, 41-20 on Oct. 27, and Toledo outscored the Zips 45-7 over the final three quarters in a blowout 48-17 victory Nov. 2. However, the Zips can still win the East with some help. Akron must win here and would then need an Ohio U loss on Nov. 15th at Central Michigan. That would set up a showdown with the Bobcats in the regular-season finale on Nov. 22nd at home. The pick: This seems like it should (will?) be a high scoring game and I wouldn’t argue against that but just how high scoring is the question? Akron can’t control what happens with Ohio next week but a win here not only gets them bowl-eligible (again, a big deal) but keeps them alive for a shot at the MAC title game, at least until the result comes in from the Ohio U/Central Michigan contest in Mount Pleasant on Nov 15th. This over/under number is YUGE and the Under is an 8* play. |
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11-09-16 | Nets v. Knicks UNDER 212.5 | Top | 96-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: The 3-4 Brooklyn Nets cross the East River Wednesday to take on the 2-4 NY Knicks at Madison Square Garden, in the first of four meetings between the Atlantic Division rivals. The Nets are coming off a 119-110 home victory over the Minnesota Timberwolves on Tuesday, while the Knicks last played Sunday afternoon, falling 114-108 at home to the Utah Jazz. Brooklyn: Jeremy Lin (15.0 PPG & 6.2 APG) will not be able to play tonight, on the court where “Linsanity” was first born. A sore hamstring will keep on the shelf for at least another week plus reserve guard Vazquez (ankle) has missed four straight games. The team’s leading scorer is center Brook Lopez (20.5 PPG) but he’s listed as questionable, as he may be rested in this back-to-back scenario. The Nets are allowing 107.7 PPG (to rank 21st) and their defensive rating (based on points allowed per 100 possessions) has them 19th in the league. New York: The Knicks own their own defensive woes, as well. New York is allowing 109.8 PPG on 46.4 % shooting (both totals rank them 26th) and the team’s defensive rating is last in the league. New head coach Jeff Hornacek has put assistant Kurt Rambis in charge of the defense, as Rambis was the interim coach during the second half of last season after Derek Fisher was fired. Hornacek told the New York Post of the change. that, "It could've been any of his assistants but Kurt had some of these guys last year, so I just thought it was better to put him in there." The Knicks have three “go-to” offensive players in Carmelo (22.8 & 6.0), Porzingis (18.8 & 6.5) and Rose (16.3-4.5-4.8). The pick: The over/under number on this one is pretty high and note that in the two games these teams played last season at Madison Square Garden, the final scores averaged just 197.5 points. Neither game topped the 200-point mark and the Under is a 10* play. |
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11-08-16 | Pelicans v. Kings OVER 202 | Top | 94-102 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: New Orleans was unable to overcome its poor start a season ago when it finished 30-52 and the Pelicans are on the same path again this season. Last night’s 116-106 loss in Oakland dropped them to 0-7 and along with the 0-6 Philadelphia 76ers, are one of two NBA teams still winless. The Sacramento Kings won 96-91 in Toronto against the Raptors on Sunday, the team’s lone victory in a five-game road trip. They return to Sacramento just 3-5 but now open a stretch in which seven of their next eight are at home. New Orleans: The Pelicans could likely be well out of postseason consideration by the time their starting backcourt of Tyreke Evans (knee) and Jrue Holiday (personal reasons) gets back on the court. Anthony Davis (30.4 & 11.9) is a star but plays with little help, as the little-known Tim Frazier (in his third year out of that basketball powerhouse Penn St.) is the team's second-leading scorer, at 13.0 PPG. New Orleans averages a modest 101.1 PPG and ranks 24th in allowing 108.7 PPG. Sacramento: The Kings own big-time scorers in center DeMarcus Cousins (25.5 & 9.1) and SF Rudy Gay (22.6 & 5.3) but no other player is averaging in double digits. The team checks in averaging only 98.1 PPG on the season to rank 24th. Help is on the way for the Kings though, as starting PG Darren Collison will be making his season debut Tuesday, after serving an eight-game suspension over a domestic violence incident. The pick: The Pelicans overcame a 21-point deficit at Golden State last night but went on to lose, 116-106. That loss followed two straight overtime defeats and head coach Alvin Gentry’s team has to be getting frustrated. However, the Pelicans swept all four games against the Kings last year and will take a six-game winning streak over them entering this game tonight in Sacramento. Meanwhile, Kings head coach Dave Joerger is hoping his team's defense against the Raptors is an indicator of things to come. The Kings held Toronto to 36 percent shooting and turned around the game by holding the Raptors to only 16 third-quarter points while surrendering a season-low 91. However, I don’t believe a low scoring game is in the cards. Rather, this match up should provide a fairly easy Over, which earns a 10* rating. |
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11-08-16 | Kings v. Maple Leafs OVER 5.5 | Top | 7-0 | Win | 110 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: The LA Kings are 6-6-0 to open the season and will play the first four games of a five-game trip against Canadian teams starting Tuesday against the 5-4-3 Toronto Maple Leafs at Air Canada Centre. The Kings enter having won two games in a row, including a 5-0 shutout over the Calgary Flames on Saturday in Los Angeles. The youthful Maple Leafs are growing up quickly, as Toronto has rebounded from losing six of seven by winning its last three, including a season-high goal output in Saturday's 6-3 win over Vancouver. LA Kings: Goaltender Jonathan Quick suffered a groin injury in the first period of the Kings' opening game of the season Oct. 12 and is not expected to return until January. Peter Budaj has made nine consecutive starts and has a 6-3-0 record, a 2.06 goals-against average and a .912 save percentage. “He's given us a chance to win, and that's what we're looking for," Sutter said. "We're not asking for Jonathan Quick. It's like talking about a player coming into the lineup for an injury. That's exactly what he did. Give him the opportunity, give it back, that's all. Our first three games, for the lack of a better word, our first three games was awful goaltending. Since then, our goaltending's been good enough to give us a chance to win. The first three games it wasn't that." Toronto: Nazem Kadri scored his fourth goal in five games Saturday to earn a share of the team lead with six. Rookies Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner are also becoming contributors, as well. Toronto goaltender is 5-2-3 with a 3.20 GAA and .902 save percentage on the season and is 5-0-1 with a 2.24 goals-against average lifetime versus the Kings. The pick: "It's nice to play four of the Canadian teams," Kings coach Darryl Sutter said Monday before the team traveled to Toronto. "Counting Ottawa, Ottawa was one of the original teams, too. That gets overlooked. So to play the historic teams is something I look forward to, always playing in those Canadian cities." The Maple Leafs 4-1 at home, averaging 3.80 GPG while allowing 3.00. Expect this contest to easily surpass the over/under number. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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11-06-16 | Broncos v. Raiders UNDER 44 | Top | 20-30 | Loss | -110 | 63 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: The Broncos have regularly gotten the better of the Raiders in recent years, winning eight of the last nine since 2011. That should not come as a surprise, as Denver's AFC West record is 26-7 (.788) over the last five years, the best winning percentage against divisional foes in the NFL in that span. However, the 2016 season, at least so far, has brought a "new day" to the AFC West,as the Raiders enter this contest tied with the Broncos atop the division, with both teams checking in with 6-2 records at the mid-point of the season. Denver: The Broncos are on the road for a second straight week, coming off a 27-19 win at San Diego. Maybe the best stat starting QB Trevor Siemian owns is that he's made just five turnovers in his seven games (four INTS & a fumble). Denver's defense is not the league's best at the moment but it does rank 5th in points allowed (17.0 PPG) on 301.2 YPG (7th). The offense ranks a poor 27th in total yards (326.4 per) but is over-performing on the scoreboard, scoring 24.2 PPG, which ranks 13th. |
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11-06-16 | Jaguars v. Chiefs OVER 44 | Top | 14-19 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up:The 2-5 Jags and 5-2 Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday. The Kansas City Chiefs say that QB Alex Smith didn't suffer a concussion last Sunday but rather that "something" happened last Sunday in the team's victory over the Colts at Indianapolis (Nick Foles gets the start). Blake Bortles has been the Jags' No. 1 QB for a few years now but the team is hoping he'll to be a more finely tuned passer after spending time in Jacksonville with his throwing guru from the West Coast (more in a bit). The Jags seem to be heading nowhere again (last-place in the AFC South), while the Chiefs are 5-2, a half-game back of AFC West co-leaders, Denver and Oakland. Jacksonville: Bortles is on pace for about 4,300 yards (about the same as last year) but his 12-9 ratio has him on pace for 27 TDs (down from 35) and 21 INTs (up from 18), while his QB rating is 80.3, after earning an 88.2 rating in 2015. The complete lack of a running game (72.6 YPG ranks 30th, on just 3.8 YPC), surely doesn't help.Concerns about his mechanics prompted a call for help from Adam Dedeaux, who is part of the 3DQB Academy in southern California that's run by former major league pitcher and now quarterback Guru Tom House. "Hopefully, we'll tighten some things up and get back to where I was throwing the ball with efficiency," said Bortles. "When you struggle with what you're supposed to do all the time, you try to fix it as quickly as possible rather than let it get worse." However, Dedeaux's appearance won't help a defense that is allowing 28.0 PPG (26th). Kansas City: The Chiefs are at 5-2 despite a rash of injuries to key personnel. RB Jamaal Charles was placed on the injured-reserve list after a second surgery on a bulky right knee and is able replacement Spencer Ware will miss here after suffering a concussion. Starting LG Parker Ehinger is out for the rest of the season with a torn ACL.Now starting QB Alex Smith will also sit out this Week 9 contest. Nick Foles will make his first start under center for Kansas City. Foles played well in relief against the Colts (16 of 22 for 223 yards with 2 TDs, 0 INTS & a QB rating of 135.2) and although head coach Andy Reid knows starting is a different situation, he has confidence in Foles, who has experience in Reid’s offense from their time together in Philadelphia. |
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11-05-16 | Tulane v. Central Florida OVER 49.5 | Top | 6-37 | Loss | -107 | 95 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: From 2009 through 2014., UCF made five bowl appearances in six years but coming off a 9-4 season in 2014, went 0-12 in 2015. Meanwhile, after ending a bowl drought which extended back to 2012 by going to the New Orleans Bowl in 2013, Tulane regressed to past form by going 3-9 in both 2014 and 2015. Both schools made coaching changes prior to the 2016 season and when the two teams meet in Orlando on Saturday (a game rescheduled from Oct. 7 due to Hurricane Matthew), Tulane checks in at 3-5 overall (although 0-4 in AAC play) and UCF brings a 4-4 overall record into the game (2-2 in AAC play). Tulane: Willie Fritz was the head coach at University of Central Missouri from 1997 to 2009, before moving to Sam Houston State University from 2010 to 2013, where he led the Bearkats to back-to-back national title game appearances in 2011 and 2012. He was the head coach at Georgia Southern University in 2014 and 2015, going 9-3 and 8-4. Last year’s team earned a bowl berth but he accepted the Tulane job before coaching the team in it. He’s quickly turned the Tulane offense around, as after averaging 16.0 and 19.7 PPG in 2014 and 2015, the Green Wave have averaged 28.4 PPG in 2016, despite being held to 14 points or less in three of eight games. Fritz has yet to win a conference game but it’s coming. UCF: Scott Frost was given his first-ever head coaching job at UCF prior to the 2016 season and ended the Knight’s 13-game losing streak with a 38-0 season-opening home win over South Carolina State. The Knights take the field 4-4 (2-2 in AAC play) and like Tulane, have turned things around offensively, averaging 31.1 PPG, after averaging only 13.9 PPG in 2015’s winless season. The Knights are kicking off a three-game homestand with this game on Saturday and would probably need to win all three to keep their division title hopes alive going into the finale at USF. That’s an unlikely scenario but reaching six wins to become bowl-eligible is reasonably attainable. The pick: UCF has failed to score more than 25 points in any of its last three games (has scored 24 twice and 25 once) but in its two previous contests, had rolled to 53- and 47-point efforts. Tulane visit Orlando having allowed 85 points in consecutive losses but has also scored 58 points in those two games. By game’s end, this over/under number should be in “the rearview mirror.” The Over is a 10* play. |
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11-04-16 | Clippers v. Grizzlies OVER 197.5 | Top | 99-88 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: The LA Clippers opened 3-0 but lost their first game of the young season this past Wednesday in an 85-83 home loss to the Thunder. They visit the 3-2 Grizzlies tonight in Memphis, opening a two-game road swing that concludes Saturday in San Antonio. As for the Grizzlies, this marks the second game of their four-game homestand with contests against the Blazers on Sunday and the Nuggets on Tuesday. LA Clippers: LA ranks first in points allowed (91.0 PPG) and 3rd in opponents FG percentage (42.0%) on the young season but wasted a fine defensive effort in Wednesday’s 85-83 home loss to the Thunder. Paul and Griffin were a combined 11-of-32 from the floor attributing to the team’s 39.1 percent shooting overall (LA committing 19 turnovers didn’t help). Blake Griffin (20.0 & 10.8) said the Clippers, ranked 22nd in offense at 100.3 PPG, eventually would break out. "It is not something we can't figure out. It is early in the season and it is a frustrating loss, but we are going to move on and correct our mistakes. We will use this as a learning process Friday and Saturday." Paul is averaging 18.8 PPG and 7.8 APG while three others join him in averaging double digits plus Rivers (9.8) and Redick (9.5) fall just short. Memphis: The Grizzlies have been known for their defense for years now but this year’s team is off some, allowing 102.2 PPG (12th) and opponents are shooting 45.9 percent (22nd). Memphis re-signed PG Conley and he leads in scoring (19.8 PPG) while the inside duo of Gasol (16.5 & 7.5) and Randolph (13.2 & 8.0) remain relevant. The pick: The Clippers have won four of the past five meetings between the two teams (Clippers took two of three from the Grizzlies last season) and the two adversaries have a history of testy playoff and regular-season battles. At first blush it’s easy to say “under” but this is the second-lowest total on Friday’s board and my 10* play is on the Over. |
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11-03-16 | Flames v. Sharks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: The 4-6-1 Calgary Flames visit San Jose to take on the 6-4-0 Sharks on Thursday. The Sharks saw their three-game win streak come to an end on Tuesday with a 3-1 setback at Arizona to fall to 2-4-0 on the road but now return home where they are 4-0-0 to open the new season. The Calgary Flames are looking to regain a scoring touch, while avoiding a season-worst third consecutive loss (Flames have lost back-to-back 5-1 and 3-1 contests). Calgary: This contest in San Jose marks the opener of four-game road trip for the Flames and as noted, Calgary has to get back to putting the puck in the net. They had scored 11 goals during a three-game winning streak from Oct. 24-28 but have been held to one goal apiece in losing to Washington on Sunday and Chicago on Tuesday. Brian Elliott (3-5-0, 3.12 GAA & .889 save percentage) is expected to get the start in goal for Calgary and turned away all 37 shots faced in a 1-0 victory on March 22 of last season in the Shark Tank, while with the Blues. San Jose: The Sharks recorded a franchise-best win total on the road last season (28-10-3) but couldn’t keep their heads above water at home (18-20-3). However, the SAP Center has seen a much better performance from its home team so far this season, as San Jose is the only team in the Western Conference yet to lose on home ice this season, posting a 4-0-0 record. Goaltender Matt Jones is 5-4-0 with a 2.26 GAA and a .914 save percentage so far this year. The pick: Jones is 4-1-0 with a 2.73 GAA and .920 save percentage in his career against Calgary and the Flames are in a scoring funk with one goal each in their last two games. San Jose comes in having allowed just five goals in its last four games so the Under is a 10* play. |
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11-02-16 | Mavs v. Jazz OVER 189 | Top | 81-97 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: The Mavericks will be looking for their first win of the season in Utah tonight, after opening 0-3.Meanwhile, the Jazz evened their record at 2-2 this season by handing San Antonio its first loss of the season last night, beating the Spurs 106-91. Veteran PG George Hill (a free agent addition from Indiana) led the way with 22 points, as the Jazz shot 48.4% from behind the arc (15 of 31), while holding the Spurs to just 43.4 percent from the floor. Dallas: Dirk Nowitzki has been sidelined since the team's season-opening 130-121 loss to the Indiana Pacers, as he’s been nursing a sore Achilles tendon plus has been dealing with a stomach ailment. Getting Nowitzki back on the court is a must, as the Mavs offense without him hasn’t been able to overcome the team's defensive shortcomings (Dallas ranks 23rd in allowing 109.7 PPG with opponents shooting 46.9%, which ranks 25th). Dallas is one of six NBA teams that still hasn't won this season and tensions are running high. “We need a damn win,” shooting guard Wesley Matthews told reporters. “We can’t fall behind. We’ve already slipped enough. We can’t slip anymore. Whatever the hell it takes, that’s what we’ve got to do.” SG Matthews said. Utah: Hill is averaging 20.5 PPG and 4.8 APG plus has also been pretty much mistake-free (he had zero turnovers against San Antonio). The Jazz still are operating without leading scorer SF Gordon Hayward, who is still recovering from a broken finger and got more bad news that backup guard Alec Burks underwent arthroscopic surgery on his left ankle and will be sidelined indefinitely. Burks averaged 13.3 PPG last season but he played in just 31 games due to a broken fibula. The pick: The Mavericks have won 10 of the last 12 meetings between the two teams and do catch the Jazz off an upset off the Spurs, plus Dallas hasn’t played since Sunday. The Jazz rank 4th in allowing 95.2 PPG and have allowed just 89.3 PPG over their last three contests and the Jazz have held opponents under 90 points in 59 games dating to the start of the 2014-15 season, the most of any NBA team. That said, we get a very low total in this one and Dirk’s back. The Over is a 10* play. |
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11-02-16 | Cubs v. Indians UNDER 7 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -135 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cubs staved off elimination in Game 5 with a 3-2 win and then sent this series to a deciding Game 7 with a 9-3 win in Game 6, last night. The Chicago bats had been quiet all series (10 runs scored in the first five games) but Chicago scored three times in the top of the first, aided by a badly misplayed fly ball to right-center, which turned into a two-run double for Addison Russell. Russell then hit a grand slam in the fourth to break it open. These two long suffering franchises are now, fittingly, headed for a Game 7. Surprisingly, home teams are just 18-19 all-time in World Series game 7s and if the Cubs win, they end a 108-year drought, while if the Indians win, they end a 68-year drought. How great is this? The pitching matchup: Kyle Hendricks (1-1, 1.31 ERA), the MLB leader in ERA this regular season (2.13) takes the mound for Chicago and Corey Kluber (4-1, 0.89 ERA), the most dominant starter of the 2016 postseason will get the ball for Cleveland. "This is the ultimate dream," Hendricks said. "You dream of getting to the World Series, winning the World Series. When you're out in your backyard as a kid, playing Little League at the field with your friends, this is the moment you dream about, Game 7, 3-2, two outs, something like that, bottom of the ninth. But it's always Game 7 of the World Series." Hendricks won 16 regular-season games and took a no-decision in Game 3 of the World Series when he allowed six hits and two walks in 4 1/3 scoreless innings. Chicago manager Joe Maddon wants to ride his starter in the deciding game but explained to his entire pitching staff that all hands will be on deck. Jon Lester and John Lackey are definitely available in relief. However, after using closer Aroldis Chapman for eight outs in Game 5 and going to him in the seventh inning again in Game 6, Maddon might need to be creative to finish the seventh game. For the Indians, Kluber is looking to cap one of the best-ever postseason pitching performances leading the Indians to a win in Game 7. Kluber is 4-1 with an 0.89 ERA this postseason, including 2-0 with an 0.75 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and a 15-1 KW ratio in the World Series. The pick: Hendricks may be young but he’s one helluva pitcher and the Cleveland lineup has struggled all postseason, entering this game batting .217 as a team while averaging just 3.36 RPG. Meanwhile, Kluber has been impersonating Bob Gibson or Sandy Koufax this Worlds Series plus is backed by the one-two relief duo of Miller (17.0 IP / 0.53 ERA / 0.71 WHIP / 29-4 KW ratio) and Allen (1.2 IP / 0.00 ERA / 1.03 WHIP / 22-4 KW ratio), who are both fresh. The Under is a 10* play. |
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11-02-16 | Toledo v. Akron UNDER 72 | Top | 48-17 | Win | 100 | 27 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: November MACtion continues on Wednesday night as the Toledo Rockets (6-2 overall, 3-1 in the MAC West) travel to Akron to take on the Zips (5-4 overall, 3-2 in the MAC East). Both schools are coming off losses, Toledo losing at home to Ohio 31-26 and Akron coming off a loss 41-20 at Buffalo. This game qualifies as what could be described as the first knockout game of the MAC football season, as the loser will be all but mathematically out of their division race. The all-time series between Akron and Toledo is tied at nine victories apiece but the Zips have claimed two out of the last three meetings in this series. Toledo: The Rockets hosted Ohio last Thursday at 6-1, having lost only to BYU 55-53 back on Sept. 30 when the Cougars kicked the game-winning FG with no time remaining on the clock. QB Logan Woodside threw for 438 yards (three TDs and 1 INT), leading the Rockets to 560 yards of total offense but Toledo’s usually stingy defense allowed Ohio U 512 yards, including 212 rushing yards by Dorian Brown.The Rockets average 39.4 PPG (19th) on 544.4 YPG (4th), led by Woodside who has completed 71.0% for 2,715 yards with 31 TDs and 5 INTs. Despite ‘ugly’ efforts against BYU and Ohio U, Toledo’s defense allows 23.5 PPG (39th) on 377.0 YPG (42nd). Akron: The Zips average 31.2 PPG (51st) on 400.6 YPG (72nd) while the defense has allowed 34.2 PPG (1208t) on 483.1 YPG (118th). Akron QB Woodson is not in the class of Toledo’s Woodside, completing 62.0% for 1,763 yards with 16 TDs and 5 INTs, and the team's running game averages 135.3 YPG (109th) on 4.5 YPC. Meanwhile, Kareem Hunt (790 yards on 4.7 YPC) leads a Toledo running game averaging 197.2 YPG. That’s bad news against an Akron defense allowing 228.7 YPG (112th). Terry Bowden took over a school which had gone 1-11 in back-to-back seasons and went 1-11 in his first season. Two 5-7 seasons followed but he led Akron to an 8-5 season, including a bowl win, the school’s second-ever bowl appearance. The pick: As noted at the top, the loser can pretty much kiss their respective diviosn titles goodbye. Yes, Akron has won two of the last three meetings but none of those matchups have come over the previous two seasons, when Toledo went 9-4 and 10-2. The Rockets are an excellent road team, having won nine of their last 10 true road contests. Let me also point out that Toledo’s games at BYU and last week at home against Ohio U are truly outliers. In Toledo's other six games here in 2016, the Rockets are allowing a modest 17.0 PPG on 320.0 YPG, which mirrors a team which allowed 20.0 PPG in going 10-2 in 2015. The Under is an 8* play. |
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11-01-16 | Sharks v. Coyotes UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: The San Jose Sharks are off to a 6-3-0 start, following the team’s run last year to the Stanley Cup Finals, where the Sharks lost in six games to the Penguins. The Arizona Coyotes welcome San Jose to town with just 2-6-0- record, coming off a season in which they finished out of the playoff picture at 35-39-8 (78 points). San Jose: Most of the team that advanced to the Stanley Cup Final is back this season but San Jose head coach Peter DeBoer is still trying to find a home for free-agent signing Mikkel Boedker, a former Coyote who signed a four-year, $16 million deal with the Sharks in the summer (he has just one point, a goal, in nine games!). Captain Joe Pavelski increased his point total to 10 (four goals six assists) in his last seven games by scoring and setting up a goal on Saturday for the second time in three contests. Arizona: Unlike DeBoer, who has a veteran-laden team with multiple stars, Arizona’s Dave Tippett coaches a team with four rookies and four second-year players on its 22-man roster. With so much youth in the lineup, along with four new faces added in free agency, Tippett is still tinkering with his lines to find the right mix. The pick: Louis Domingue will start for Arizona in place of injured starter Mike Smith (left leg) and that’s a problem for Arizona. He’s 1-5-0 so far, allowing 4.38 GPG with a poor save percentage of .869. However, San Jose is expected to give Mike Smith his fifth straight start and he’s got a 2.15 GAA with a .916 save percentage. Expect San Jose to get the lead and control the flow of the game from there, making the Under a 10* play. |
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11-01-16 | Rockets v. Cavs UNDER 218 | Top | 120-128 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cavs have moved up the start time of this game to 6:05 ET, as the Indians will be hosting the Cubs in Game 6 of the World Series, starting at 8:05 ET, right around the corner. The Cavs have opened defense of their NBA title 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS and the Rockets come in 2-1 SU & 1-2 ATS but having won seven of the past eight meetings between the two teams (this marks LBJ’s third season back in Cleveland). Houston: This is now “Harden’s team” and he’s posting LBJ-like numbers so far at 29.3-7.3-10.7. Eric Gordon is averaging 17.0 PPG but the shooting guard rarely stay healthy for too long. Ariza (12.7 & 5.7) has always been a solid starter and Anderson (11.0- & 7.3) has taken on the new role of starter, not the indispensible sixth-man. Cleveland: LBJ began promoting Kyrie Irving as a future Most Valuable Player candidate last season and Irving has opened by leading the team with 25.0 PPG on 46.0% shooting, including 50.0 percent on threes. LBJ is playing like LBJ (21.0-8.3-10.) and the third member of the “Big 3,” Kevin Love, is also averaging 20.0 PPG and 9.0 RPG. The pick: There were tons of questions regarding whether offensive-minded coach Mike D'Antoni could get this group to play defense but if the team's 93-92 Sunday win over Dallas is any indication, the answer may just be yes. Houston held the Mavs to38.1 percent from the floor, including 11 of 30 on threes. It’s not good news though that sharpshooter Ryan Anderson is off to a slow start from the three-point line in his first season in Houston, going just 3 of 10 from behind the arc. Speaking of shooting woes to open the season, J.R. Smith, who missed most of the preseason before signing a four-year, $72 million deal, was certainly rusty and out of rhythm when he went just 6-of-21 shooting over the first two contests. Having three 20-point scorers on the team allows one to overlook the fact that Cleveland is holding opponents to just 92.7 PPG (3rd-best) on 40.2 percent shooting (ranks 1st). However, I will not overlook that, and will make the Under a 10* play. |
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10-31-16 | Suns v. Clippers OVER 206 | Top | 98-116 | Win | 100 | 22 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: The winless Suns (0-3) travel to LA to meet the 2-0 Clippers at Staples Center. LA is led by All Stars Griffin (22.5-11.5) and Paul (18.0-7.0 APG) but center DeAndre Jordan (14.0 RPG) is also an important cog. So it’s big news that Jordan suffered what was initially diagnosed as a sprained right thumb in the third quarter of Sunday's 88-75 win over the Utah Jazz. He did return to play almost five minutes in the fourth quarter, finishing with seven points and 16 rebounds in 28 minutes. However, after being examined more extensively, the Clippers said an X-ray was negative, which means Jordan does not have any broken bones. The Suns own a solid trio of guards in Bledsoe (18.0-5.3-5.7), Booker (15.3) and Knight (11.7), as well as third-year SF Warren (23.3-6.7), who has started fast. However, Phoenix has yet to win. Phoenix: The Suns gave the Warriors all they wanted last night but in the end lost 106-100, which followed losses to Oklahoma City and Sacramento. It was a frustrating weekend of near-misses for Phoenix, which took OKC to overtime on the road Friday before losing a 13-point lead against Golden State. However, winning at Staples Center seems unlikely. LA Clippers: Griffin and Paul are the team's stars and leaders but note that the LA reserves have produced more than 40 points in both games this season. The Clippers have won eight straight regular-season home games dating to last season and have claimed five consecutive meetings with the Suns at Staples Center, including a 40-point rout the last time the teams tangled in Los Angeles, 124-84. The pick: Jordan is listed as probable for this game but one wonders how effective he may be. The Suns enter the game allowing 110.7 PPG and coming off last night’s home loss to the Warriors (again, the Suns led at one time by 13 points), I feel as if the Clippers should reach or surpass 110 points, which makes the Over a 10* play. |
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10-31-16 | Vikings v. Bears UNDER 40.5 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 20 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: The Minnesota Vikings opened 5-0 SU & ATS but after a bye week, played their worst game of the season, losing 23-10 at Philadelphia, with the team's only TD coming with just 37 seconds remaining in the contest. The Chicago Bears enter this game 1-6 SU and ATS, a record that is better than only the 0-8 Cleveland Browns (SF 49ers are also 1-6). Minnesota has won three consecutive games against Chicago and five of the past seven meetings. Minnesota: The Vikings lost starting starting QB Teddy Bridgewater during the preseason to an injury that would keep him out all year. Minnesota made a big trade with Philadelphia before the start of the regular season, acquiring Sam Bradford for a 2017 No. 1 pick. Bradford did not start in Week 1 but then completed 70.4% of his passes with six TDs and no INTS as the Vikings won the next four games, extending their record to 5-0 SU and ATS. However, following a bye week, the Vikings lost 23-10 to the Eagles, as Bradford laid an egg in his Philly return. He threw his first interception of the season, fumbled four times (lost two) and was sacked six times. His lone TD pass came with just 37 seconds left in the game. The Vikings have been plagued all season by a running game averaging 71.6 YPG on a horrific 2.6 YPC average. However, the Minnesota defense leads the NFL in total defense (279.5 yards YPG) and it is tied for No. 1 in scoring defense (14.0 PPG). Mike Zimmer's unit is also No. 1 in the NFL with 16 takeaways (nine interceptions and seven fumble recoveries), to lead the NFL in turnover ratio (plus-11). Chicago: The Bears have only had one winning season in their previous five and now at 1-6 to open the 2016 season, getting above .500 this year is a near-impossibility. Jay Cutler injured his thumb in a Week 2 game and Brian Hoyer came in to become the first Chicago QB in history to pass for more than 300 yards in four consecutive games. However, the Bears won just one of those contests and last week, Hoyer broke his left arm against Green Bay and has been placed on injured reserve. Cutler’s sprained ligaments in his right thumb are healed enough for him to get back on the field but I’m not sure any Chicago fans or those in management are all that thrilled to have him back.T his week, reporters asked Cutler whether he felt as if he had the support of coach John Fox. "Um, he doesn't have a choice, I guess, at this point," Cutler told the Chicago Sun-Times. "Brian's out, so I've got to go.” I’ll leave it at that. The pick: Like the Vikings, Chicago’s running game is a liability, averaging only 87.9 YPG. Minnesota has held nine of its last 10 opponents to 17 points or less and here in 2016, has held opposing QBs to a rating of 55.7 (only Denver is better at 53.5). A rusty Cutler, backed by a non-existent running game, should not fare well. As for Minnesota, Bradford may be somewhat gun-shy after last week’s poor effort, so expect the Minnesota offense to play things close to the vest. The Under is a 10* play. |
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10-30-16 | Indians v. Cubs UNDER 7 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cubs bats went silent in last year’s NLCS against the Mets, as Chicago got swept 4-0. However, it was supposed to be different here in 2016, as the Cubs were MLB’s best team in the regular season and were appearing in their first World Series since 1945, looking to win their first title since 2008. That hasn’t been the case though, as the Cubs got shut out twice in the first three games of this series and then last night lost 7-2, as the Indians took a commanding 3-1 lead in the 2016 World Series. The Cubs are batting .204 as team and have scored a total of just two runs in their three losses. Cleveland pitching has been phenomenal all postseason (1.68 ERA / 1.05 WHIP / 120-31 KW ratio / .206 BAA) and it’s continued here vs. the Cubs. The Indians haven’t needed to score much (had scored a modest 35 runs through their first 11 postseason games) but last night scored a postseason single-game high of seven runs, led by a solo HR from Santana (which tied the game in the second) and then a three-run HR in the 7th by Kipnis, sealed the deal. The pitching matchup: Trevor Bauer (0-1, 5.00 ERA) takes the ball for the Indians, up against Chicago’s (2-1, 1.69). Bauer lasted just 3 2/3 innings while allowing two runs and six hits in a Game 2 loss (Cleveland’s only one of the Series so far) and has been the lone weak spot of Cleveland's starting rotation. In his three starts (one in which he left in the first inning because of a bleeding finger), he’s lasted just nine innings, allowing 12 hits (two HRs), four walks and five ERs for a 5.00 ERA. Kluber (5), Tomlin (3) and Merritt (1) have started nine games, pitching 50 innings while allowing 33 hits and six ERs for a 1.08 ERA. Lester has a 1.69 ERA in the 2016 playoffs with 21 strikeouts and five walks plus his postseason resume includes 20 games (18 starts) with a 2.60 ERA. Lester might (should?) win the NL’s Cy Young award this year and is exactly the pitcher the Cubs want on the mound tonight, in this win-or-go-home game. Clearly, Bauer is Cleveland's weakest starter right now but can we expect these Chicago bats to break out, as the pressure of “ending the curse” seems to have been too much for the talented but very young team? Will the Cubs win and send this series back to Cleveland? Maybe, but I’d rather make an 8* play on the Under. |
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10-30-16 | Packers v. Falcons UNDER 53 | Top | 32-33 | Loss | -110 | 119 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: Dan Quinn’s first season as the Falcons’ head coach saw Atlanta open the year 5-0 but the Falcons finished 3-8 to go 8-8. The Falcons lost 31-24 at home to the Tampa Bay Bucs in Week 1 of the 2016 season but they followed with FOUR straight wins, including starting October with back-to-back wins over last year's Super Bowl teams, Carolina and Denver. However, Atlanta is now off a pair of mentally challenging defeats. First was a two-point loss at Seattle, then an OT loss at home to San Diego last week, caused in part by Quinn failing to go for it on fourth down on his side of midfield in the extra period. The Packers moved to 4-2 by beating the Bears 26-10 on a Thursday night Week 7 contest, as Aaron Rodgers tossed three TD passes and topped 300 yards (326) for the first time this season and for just the second time in his last 16 games, including two postseason games last year. Green Bay got good news when the Vikings lost last Sunday in Philadelphia, dropping Minnesota to 5-1. Green Bay: The Packers offense found life in that game with Chicago, turning to a quick-hitting passing game, as Rodgers set a team record by completing 39 passes (three different players caught at least 10 ). It’s hard to fathom that a Green Bay offense led by Rodgers ranks just 20th in passing yards (239.3 per) but that’s the case plus Green Bay’s run game contributes only 104.8 YPG. Green Bay’s defense has been very solid, leading the NFL in rushing yards allowed (71.8 YPG), ranking seventh in total defense (314.0 YPG) and 11th in scoring (20.5 PPG). Atlanta: Matt Ryan (67.6%, 319.0 YPG and a 16-4 ratio) leads the NFL’s top team in total offense (433.6 YPG), as well as its top scoring unit (32.7 PPG). Matt Ryan has thrown for at least 200 yards in a league-record 46 consecutive games and has a superb QB rating of 113.6. WR Julio Jones (40 catches with a 20.8 YPC average) is on pace for 1,900 receiving yards. RB Devonta Freeman (team-leading 508 yards rushing) has recorded at least 100 yards from scrimmage in three of his last five games and likely will have the backfield to himself with second-year back Tevin Coleman nursing an ailing hamstring. But oh that defense! Rodgers will face Atlanta’s 31st-ranked pass D (294.3 YPG) and a team which is allowing 28.4 PPG, which ranks 27th. The pick: Atlanta has to be nervous that after another strong start (4-1), the team needs a win here just to avoid falling back to .500 (remember last year’s collapse!). As for the Packers, they come in well-rested off a Thursday game in Week 7 and while they can’t control the ball by running it, they can by piling up first downs with Rodgers connecting on quick-hitting throws. This is the highest over/under on the board in Week 8 and the 10* play is on the Under. |
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10-29-16 | New Mexico v. Hawaii UNDER 65.5 | Top | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 103 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: Hawaii opened 1-3 but with Dru Brown, a sophomore transfer from College of San Mateo taking over at starting QB, Hawaii has won three of four MWC games to even its record at 4-4. New Mexico is 4-3 overall (2-1 in MWC play) and will travel to Honolulu for a late Saturday night game. The Lobos sit one game behind Boise St and Wyoming (both 3-0) in the Mountain Division, while the 3-1 Rainbow Warriors trail 3-0 San Diego State (which plays Friday night at Utah St) in the West Division. New Mexico QB Lamar Jordan is not asked to do much through the air (Lobos average a meager 110.1 YPG passing) but he can sure direct the team's option offense, one which leads the nation with 374.1 YPG on the ground, averaging 6.9 YPC. Four players have more than 300 rushing yards so far, including Jordan with 333 (5.5 YPC). Owens has 687 yards on 7.8 YPC, while Gipson has 623 yards on an amazing 13.0 YPC. McQuarly may have a modest 341 rushing yards on 4.9 YPC but he’s the TD leader with 10 rushing scores. New Mexico needs to score to win, as the defense allows 33.9 PPG (106th). Brown’s averaged 259.5 YPG through the air with nine TDs and just two INTs in leading Hawaii to a 3-1 start in conference play. Hawaii surely can’t match New Mexico success at running the ball but Diocemy Saint Juste (614 yards on 6.0 YPC) leads a rushing attack averaging 183.0 YPG on 5.2 YPC. Fellow RBs Harris (328 yards on 7.1 YPC) and Lakalaka (317 yards but 10 TDs), are nice complements. Hawaii’s defense is an issue, allowing 37.4 PPG (120th) on 477.8 YPG (118th). The pick: The Lobos’ starting QB Jordan is suffering from a hamstring injury and with backup Austin Apodaca still recovering from a collarbone fracture, JaJuan Lawson could get the start. The sophomore has attempted just five passes and run only 12 times in limited action over three games. Just maybe, New Mexico’s option will not be at peak efficiency. The Rainbow Warriors took to the air in beating Air Force last week but more use of the team's trio of RBs (see above) could control the ball and eat some clock. My 10* play is on the Under. |
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10-29-16 | Pacers v. Bulls UNDER 209 | Top | 101-118 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: The new-look Chicago Bulls got past Boston 105-99 on Thursday, as Dwayne Wade scored 22 points in his first game with the club. Rondo made just 1 of 9 FG attempts (4-6-9) but Butler led the team with 24 points. PF Taj Gibson, who won a starting position before the season, recorded 18 points and 10 rebounds. He told reporters, "We have a lot of guys that have tasted success, and we got a lot of young guys that want to taste that success. Point blank, period." The Pacers have split a pair of games to open the new season, with free agent PG Jeff Teague handing out 15 assists through his first two games but making just 7-of-28 from the floor (0 of 7 on three-pointers). Indiana: The Pacers have some backcourt woes entering this game, as Rodney Stuckey departed Friday’s 103-94 loss at Brooklyn with a right hamstring strain, joining Aaron Brooks (knee) on the sidelines. Stuckey is doubtful tonight, while Brooks remain questionable (he has yet to play this season). Indiana opened the season by scoring 130 points in an OT win over the Mavericks (shot 50.5% for the game, including 10 of 19 on three-pointers) but then fizzled down the stretch in the loss to Brooklyn on Friday night. The Pacers shot just 37.8 percent from the floor for the game and managed only 15 fourth-quarter points on 6-of-21 shooting. Chicago: The Bulls were the Eastern Conference's top three-point shooting team from a season ago (37.1 percent) and picked up where it left off from beyond the arc in their opener, making 11 of 25 (44%). However, PG Rajon Rondo had just four points on 1-of-9 shooting in his Chicago debut. The Bulls really are a new-look team this season. They not only added veteran guards Wade and Rondo along with center Robin Lopez in the offseason but more recently, added guards Michael Carter-Williams and R.J. Hunter. Head coach Fred Hoiberg knows it will require his team to be patient as it attempts to put the pieces in the right places. Chicago won last season's series 3-1 but three of the games were decided by two points or less (one in OT). The average regulation time final scores averaged 190.8 PPG, some 20 points lower than the opening total of 210 in this contest. Even the OT game (102-100), would have stayed under this number. The Under is a 10* play. |
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10-29-16 | Cincinnati v. Temple UNDER 54 | Top | 13-34 | Win | 100 | 95 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: Cincinnati is 4-3 overall (1-3 in AAC play) as the Bearcats visit Temple (5-3 / 3-1) on Saturday afternoon. The Bearcats have been postseason regulars, having made 14 bowl appearances since 1997, including all three years under current head coach Tommy Tuberville. However, while Cincinnati needs only two wins to reach six victories to go bowling again this season, the path will be difficult with road games at Temple (here) and UCF (11/12) plus home games against BYU (11/5) and Memphis 11/18) still left among the team's final five games. Temple’s Matt Ruhle led the Owls to a 10-4 season last year and pleased all in Philly when he decided to not seek greener pastures. Down 25-7 in the first half at UCF on Oct. 15, Temple shut out the Knights in the second half and won 26-25, with the game-winning TD pass coming with one second remaining. Temple followed with a 46-30 pasting of USF last Saturday, rushing for 319 yards. Cincinnati: The Bearcats ended a two-game slide with their first AAC win of the season last week, beating East Carolina 31-19. Former starter Gunner Kiel returned to the lineup at QB after losing his job and passed for 348 yards and four TDs (who expected that?). The Cincy defense held an opponent under 20 points for the first time since opening the season with a 28-7 win over UT-Martin but all in all, the defense has been pretty decent, allowing 24.4 PPG on the year. However, after averaging 30-plus PGG over each of the last five season, this year’s team is averaging just 24.1 PPG. Temple: With back-to-back league wins over UCF and USF, Temple is back in position for a second-straight trip to the AAC title games (lost last season at Houston). The Owls are tied atop the East with South Florida at 3-1 and would love for Navy to upend USF Friday night in Tampa. The Owls can’t control that outcome of that but Temple now owns the tiebreaker over the Bulls with last week’s win, so it’s just a matter of controlling one’s own destiny. RB Ryquell Armstead ran for a career-best 210 yards last week and starting QB Philip Walker did not throw an interception for just the second time this season. The pick: After back-to-back important wins, I expect Temple to play this one close to the vest, not asking Walker, a limited passer at best, to do too much, while depending on the team's very good RB duo of Armstead (613 yards / 9 TDs) and Jahad Thomas (413 yards / 9 TDs). Kiel lost his starting job earlier for a good reason, he hadn’t played well. I don’t expect him to come anywhere close to playing as well as he did last week, against a solid Temple defense, allowing 321.5 YPG to rank 16th in the nation. The Under is an 8* play. |
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10-28-16 | Indians v. Cubs UNDER 8 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: The Indians won Game 1 behind the outstanding pitching of Kluber, Miller and Allen, while a lineup which has struggled for most of this year’s postseason, came through with six runs on 10 hits. However, Arrieta took a no-hitter into the 6th-inning of Game 2 for the Cubs and Chicago’s bats came alive. After getting shut out while being held to four hits and striking out 15 times as a team in Game 1, the Cubs had nine hits and the five runs were more than enough to even the series, as Cleveland was held to four hits and one run in Game 2. With the series tied at one-all, it moves to Wrigley Field for the next three games. The pitching matchup: Josh Tomlin (2-0, 2.53 ERA) will get the ball for the Indians and Kyle Hendricks (1-1, 1.65 ERA) for the Cubs. Kluber has lived up to his role as ace of the staff (0.74 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 29-7 KW ratio in four starts), butTomlin has delivered exactly what Cleveland had hoped for, allowing a total of just three ERs in his two postseason starts, giving them 10 2/3 solid innings (2.53 ERA) before handing things off to the team's dominant bullpen. Tomlin was 13-9 in the regular season, as the Indians went 19-10 in his starts, with his plus-$864 moneyline mark ranking 15th among all MLB starters. He now looks to make it three-for-three in the postseason, after beating Boston and Toronto. He has never faced the Cubs. Kyle Hendricks led all MLB starters with a 2.13 ERA, going 16-8 overall and putting himself in Cy Young Award contention, along with teammate Jon Lester and Washington’s Max Scherzer. He was struck by a line drive on his right forearm in the fourth inning of an NLDS Game 2 and was forced to leave leading 4-2 (Cubs won 5-2). He was outdueled 1-0 by Clayton Kershaw in Game 2 of the NLCS against the Dodgers but then came back to win Game 6 of that series, as the Cubs clinched it with a 5-0 win (this time, outpitching Kershaw). The pick: Hendricks was 9-2 with a 1.32 ERA in 15 home regular season games this season (including 14 starts) and now owns a 1.65 ERA in three playoff starts, all at Wrigley. No reason to think he won’t continue his excellent pitching against a Cleveland lineup which has scored a total of only 34 runs in 10 postseason games in 2016, while batting only .210. Meanwhile, Tomlin’s delivered for the Indians in his two previous starts and this potent Chicago lineup hasn’t exactly been tearing the cover off the ball this postseason, batting a combined .223. Neither Miller nor Allen pitched in Game 2, so with two days off, can be expected to provide the Indians with as much as four innings of work. Remember, the two have pitched a combined 22 1/3 innings this postseason without allowing a single run (39-7 KW ratio). The Under is a 10* play. |
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10-28-16 | San Diego State v. Utah State OVER 44 | Top | 40-13 | Win | 100 | 76 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: San Diego State ended the 2015 season on a 10-game winning streak, finishing 11-3 after a 42-7 win over Cincinnati in the Hawaii Bowl. The Aztecs opened the 2016 season with three more wins, as SDSU rose to 19th in the AP poll. However, a 42-24 loss at South Alabama on October 1st saw the Aztecs fall from the rankings. However, the Aztecs visit Utah State Friday night 6-1 overall and atop the West Division of the MWC at 3-0. Utah State is hoping for a sixth straight bowl appearance but has some work to do, sitting at 3-4 overall and at 1-3, is tied for last-place with Air Force in the Mountain Division of the MWC. San Diego State: The Aztecs are averaging 32.4 PPG (50th) led by a running game averaging 252.7 YPG (14th) on 5.3 YPC. RB Donnel Pumphrey ran for just 98 yards in the team’s opener against New Hampshire but has topped 100 yards in each of SDSU’s last six games (he now owns 28, 100-yard games in his career), including two efforts of over 200 yards. He has 1,246 yards (6.5 YPC) and 13 rushing TDs here in 2016. QB Chapman completes 64.0 percent but averages only 164.4 YPG passing with nine TDs but also has thrown only three INTs. The SDSU defense has been very good, despite an ‘ugly’ effort in the loss to South Alabama. The Aztecs are allowing just 17.6 PPG (13th) on 285.7 YPG (5th). Utah State: Gary Andersen began the turnaround in Logan, earning bowl bids in 2011 and 2012 for the Aggies, the school’s first since 1997. He then left for Wisconsin with his assistant, Matt Wells, taking over at his alma mater. Wells has continued Utah State’s rebirth and has extended the school’s bowl run to five in a row. A sixth straight bowl berth is in question, as without a win here (Utah State is about a six-point dog), the Aggies would need to win three of their final four games to reach six wins, with three of those four coming on the road. Junior QB Kent Myers is a dual threat, as he’s second on the team in rushing attempts (73) and third in rushing yards (272). Myers leads the MWC in completions per game (20.1), completing 59.0 percent for 1,480 yards but with just seven TDs (four interceptions). The running game averages 178.1 YPG (59th) on 4.9 YPC and Devante Mays (208 yards in the opener), who has been out most of the season with a leg injury, appears ready to return.Utah State’s defense is allowing 24.3 PPG (46th) on 359.6 YPG (35th). The pick: SDSU is the better team and Pumphrey one of CFB’s most overlooked stars, as he currently ranks 9th on the NCAA’s all-time rushing list (barring injury, he should close his career in the top-5). However, winning in Logan is no easy task. Consider this, Utah State is 26-4 in its last 30 home games, which includes a 17-2 record in MWC games. Utah State should be more than competitive in this one and with a fairly low total (for a CFB game), the Over is a 10* play. |
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