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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-28-16 | Cavs v. Raptors OVER 203 | Top | 94-91 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cavs accepted their championship rings on Tuesday night and then went out and trashed the NY Knicks, 117-88. Irving led with 29 points, Love added 23 & 12 and LBJ delivered his 43rd career triple-double with 19 points, 11 rebounds and 14 assists. The Raptors opened the new season with a 109-91 home victory Wednesday night over the Pistons, as DeRozan scored 40 points (his 3rd career 40-point game and two points shy of a career-best), while Valanciunas made an early statement that he’s back and healthy with 32 points and 11 rebounds. The Raptors welcome the Cavs to Air Canada Centre and it isn’t just another game on the 82-game schedule, as Cleveland defeated Toronto in six games of the Eastern Conference finals to advance to the NBA Finals in last year’s playoffs. Cleveland: "It's the second game of the season, we know we played these guys in the Eastern Conference finals. They have a good team; they beat us twice and coach Casey's a great coach so we know we're going to have our hands full (on Friday)," Cleveland head coach Tyronn Lue said. "We expect that. They have a great crowd, great atmosphere, but we'll be prepared for it." The Cavs were obviously sharp in their season debut, shooting 47.9 percent from the floor, including 37.1 percent from three-point land (bench contributed 38 points). Toronto: DeRozan and Valanciunas became the first teammates in NBA history with a 40-point game and a 30-point game in a season opener but the Raptors couldn’t have been happy about PG Kyle Lowry scoring just 10 points on 3-of-13 shooting against Detroit. The Raptors won two of three regular season meetings (both wins came at home) and then won two contests in the six-game playoff series (again both in Toronto) but Cleveland's four victories came by an average of 28.5 points. The Over is a 10* play. |
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10-27-16 | Jaguars v. Titans OVER 43 | Top | 22-36 | Win | 100 | 53 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: The 2-4 Jacksonville Jaguars go on the road to take on the 3-4 Tennessee Titans as week 8 kicks off with its typical Thursday night encounter. Each team entertained loftier expectations this season but both AFC South rivals have sputtered but there’s talk from each side of a ‘light at the end of the tunnel.’ The Titans have lost both previous division games but with Houston’s Monday night loss at Denver, the Titans are tied with the Colts, just one game back of the 4-3 Texans. The cellar-dwelling Jaguars need only win here to reach 3-4, which would drop the Titans into the AFC South ‘basement’ and leave then tied with the Colts and just one game back of the first-place Texans, pending Sunday’s results. Jacksonville: The Jags were very optimistic about the team’s offense coming into this season, after Blake Bortles improved massively from his rookie year, when he passed for just 2,908 yards with 11 TDs and 17 INTs. Bortles topped 4,000 yards last year (4,428) and owned a 35-18 ratio for an 88.2 QB rating. However, hurt by a rushing attack which give shimn little or no support (Jags rank 30th at 76.7 YPG on 3.7 YPC), he’s got just a 9-9 ratio with a QB rating of only 76.4 (he is on pace to pass for around 4,2000 yards, though). The Jags defense allows a better-than-average 325.2 YPG (ranks 9th) but allows 26.7 PPG, to rank 26th. Tennessee: DeMarco Murray has run for 633 yards (4.6 YPC and 5 TDs), giving Tennessee the 3rd-best rushing attack in the NFL at 143.4 YPG (4.9 YPC). He’s also the team's leader in receptions (27), with QB Mariota completing 61.5% with a 12-6 ratio (89.5 QB rating). However, the Titans are averaging just 217.7 YPG through the air, to rank 27th. The defense ranks 10th in yards allowed (338.0) and allows 23.0 PPG (17th). The Titans lost again to the Colts last week (Indy has now won 15 of the L16 meetings!), with Indy getting two 4th-quarter TDs (the 2nd on a 14-yard fumble return) as the Colts won 34-26. The home loss drops Tennessee to 3-17 SU over its last 20 home games, with Mariota going 2-8 as a starter at home. The pick: It’s difficult to lay points with a team that is on a 3-17 SU run at home but equally difficult to take this “small price” with the Jags, who have lost 27 of their last 32 road contests. The Jags entered this season just 14-50 SU their previous four seasons, while the Titans are just 18-46 over that same span, including 5-27 the last two years. A check of the record book reveals that the teams have split their two-game series each of the last seven seasons, so that outcome should surprise no one in 2016. So what to do here? Blake Bortles tossed a career-high five TD passes the last time the Jags visited Nashville (Dec. 6 of 2015), a game in which the Titans won 42-39. Bortles is overdue for a breakout game this season plus the Jags D should have plenty of trouble keeping Murray and Mariota in check. The Over is a 10* play. |
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10-26-16 | Kings v. Suns UNDER 212.5 | Top | 113-94 | Win | 100 | 21 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: The Sacramento Kings (2015-16: 33-49) are trying to break a 10-year postseason drought while the Phoenix Suns (2015-16: 23-59) have missed the playoffs for six consecutive seasons. These two Pacific division rivals open the new season tonight in Phoenix and let’s note that the Kings won three out of four meetings with the Suns last season, Sacramento: The Kings open the season without starting PG Darren Collison, who will begin an eight-game suspension due to a guilty plea to a misdemeanor charge of domestic battery. Ty Lawson will start at the point for the Kings, looking to rebound after two poor seasons and two DUI arrests in 2015. DeMarcus Cousins averaged a career-best 26.9 points last season and averaged 11.5 rebounds but the Kings collapsed with a 9-18 finish. Last season's 33 wins were the most Sacramento has achieved in Cousins' six seasons. Sacramento hired Dave Joerger as its head (was previously at Memphis), hoping he will be able to mesh with the combustible Cousins. Phoenix: Eric Bledsoe, Goran Dragic and Isaiah Thomas were the Suns’ best guards two years ago but all were PGs. The logjam at the position quickly turned unworkable, forcing a reboot. Bledsoe is the lone survivor of the purge and the now undisputed point guard and is hoping to rebound from injuries that forced him to watch most of last season's 23-59 disaster from the sideline. Devin Booker (13.8) became the fourth-youngest player in league history (behind LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Kobe Bryant) to score 1,000 points in a season and Brandon Knight (19.6) comes off the bench in the backcourt but the frontcourt is a major concern. The pick: These two teams are both “works in progress” and I’m making the Under an 8* play. |
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10-25-16 | Coyotes v. Devils OVER 5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: The Coyotes went 35-39-8 (78 points) to miss the playoffs last season and can’t be happy about the team’s 1-4-0 start this season. The team's two points gives them the worst point-total in the NHL and Arizona also owns a minus-7 goal differential to rank last). New Jersey missed last year’s postseason as well (38-36-8, 84 points) but has had a better start than Arizona, going 2-2-1. Arizona: The Pacific Division cellar-dwelling Coyotes are allowing 4.2 GPG and need to tighten things up as they continue their season-high six-game road trip. "We knew this was going to be a tough trip," coach Dave Tippett told AZCentral.com. "We were going to find out about our team. Every game we find out a little more. There's some areas that are improving. There's some areas that still need lots of work. ...All that being said, wins are what you come into this league for and you gotta have wins." However, the Coyotes will have to do it without No. 1 goaltender Mike Smith, who left the team's second game of the season with a lower-body injury and is listed as week to week. Backup goaltender Louis Domingue has started the past three games and owns a 5.03 GAA and .851 save percentage in five games. New Jersey: All five of the Devils games have been decided by one goal, as goaltender Cory Schneider is allowing his team to win games they would normally lose. He has a .943 save percentage, the best mark in the league among goaltenders to play more than three games. He has allowed two goals or fewer in his past three starts. However, the Devils have tallied an NHL-low eight goals in five games. The pick: In theory New Jersey’s inept offense should be just what the doctor ordered for Arizona goalie Domingue but the Devils can’t keep up their non-scoring ways for long. As for Schneider, he’s due to start looking ‘mortal,’ soon. How about tonight? The Over is a 10* play. |
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10-24-16 | Texans v. Broncos UNDER 40.5 | Top | 9-27 | Win | 100 | 19 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: Brock Osweiler left the Broncos to sign a free-agent deal with the Texans this past offseason, parlaying a 5-2 record as a starter into a $37 million guaranteed deal. The two teams hook up on MNF in Denver, with both coming owning identical 4-2 records. Denver opened 4-0 but the Broncos have lost their last two and need to get back on the winning track here at home. The Texans are 4-0 at home in 2016 but have lost both road games, getting outscored by a combined 58-13. Houston: Osweiler's numbers have been underwhelming so far this season and Houston fans were none to happy as last Sunday night’s game passed the midway point of the 4th quarter with the Texans trailing the Colts, 23-9. However, Osweiler shook off a tough start to throw two TD passes in less than two minutes in the fourth quarter (1:48 to be exact) as Houston tied it at 23-all with 54 seconds left. He found Lamar Miller on a 10-yard catch-and-run TD with 2:47 remaining and after a stop by the defense, connected with C.J. Fiedorowicz on a 26-yarder that tied it. Houston would win 26-23 in OT. RB Lamar Miller, also a marquee free-agent signing in the offseason, is coming off his best game by rushing for 149 yards and scoring his first two TDs, one on the ground and one receiving. He’s got 520 yards rushing on 4.2 YPC. Star WR DeAndre Hopkins had a season-high nine receptions against the Colts. The offense is struggling (Osweiler is completing just 59% with with an 8-8 ratio and 74.1 QB rating) but the defense is hanging tough even with the los of J.J. Watt, ranking 8th in total yards allowed (315.7 YPG). Denver: Of course, Denver’s D led it to last year’s Super Bowl win and it ranks 5th in total yards (295.0 YPG) and 8th in scoring (18.0 PPG). Siemian led Denver to a 4-0 start, although he was injured early on in the team’s Week 4 win at Tampa Bay. He missed the Atlanta home loss but returned in the team’s 21-13 loss at San Diego in Week 6, attempting 50 passes. In contrast, he threw a more reasonable 94 times while completing 67.0% with 5 TDs and 3 INTs in his first full games. Denver would like a return to that here (about 30 attempts) and also needs more from its running game, which is averaging only 98.5 YPG on 3.8 YPC. The pick: Broncos head coach Gary Kubiak will be back on the sideline after missing one game due to illness and that should be a big boost plus expect the Denver D to brings its “A-game” against former teammate Osweiler (who skipped town). Houston has been in over its head on the road against elite teams like the Pats and Vikings, scoring only 13 points, combined. Denver’s defense is surely “elite” plus in back-to-back games, the Denver offense has totaled a modest 29 points! This one has “under written all over it” and I’ll make the Under a 10* play. |
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10-23-16 | Vikings v. Eagles OVER 40 | Top | 10-21 | Loss | -105 | 94 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: Minnesota is coming off a bye week and returns to the field of play as the NFL’s lone unbeaten (5-0), as well as being the only team to be perfect ATS, as well. The Vikings visit Philadelphia on Sunday, a team which surprised all by opening 3-0 behind rookie QB Carson Wentz, while outscoring opponents 92-27. However, after a early Week 4 bye, the Eagles have lost 24-23 at Detroit and 27-20 at Washington. The Eagles will be glad to return home and making the game even more interesting is that Sam Bradford, who was traded by Philly to Minny during the preseason, has seen his career rejuvenated as the Vikings’ starting QB. Minnesota: Bradford was not ready to go in Week 1 but he’s since led Minnesota to four consecutive victories, completing 70.4 percent with six TDs and zero INTs, earning a QB rating of 109.8. He’s done all this despite a rushing attack (pardon the pun), which ranks dead-last in averaging 70.6 YPG on a pathetic 2.5 YPC. The Vikings have averaged a so-so 23.5 PPG under Bradford but led by a defense which ranks first in points allowed (12.6 PPG) and second in yards allowed (287.6), the Vikings remain unbeaten both SU and ATS. Philadelphia: The Eagles chose Wentz with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2016 draft and Bradford, despite having recently signed a two-year, $35 million contract. He relented on that demand when there seemed to be tepid interest from other teams. However, when Minnesota lost its starting QB (Teddy Bridgewater) during the preseason, the Eagles decided to hitch their wagon to Wentz and traded him to the VERY interested Vikings, who gave up a first-round pick in 2017 in return. It’s worked well for both teams, as Wentz is completing 65.0 percent for 1,186 yards with seven TDs and just one INT, along with earning a 99.9 QB rating. Wentz gets more help from his running game than Bradford, as Philly’s averaged 113.6 YPG on 4.1 YPC but Philly’s top rusher (Ryan Mathews) only has 206 yards, while averaging 3.9 YPC. However, like with Minnesota, the Philadelphia defense has been top-notch, ranking 3rd in points allowed (15.6 PPG) on 312.0 YPG (6th). The pick: Will defense dominate this game? Something tells me Minnesota’s might, as Wentz is still just a rookie and he really has no “star power” surrounding him. However, also note that Bradford’s WR corps is nowhere near 100 percent. Leading receiver Stefon Diggs (groin) and fellow wideouts Jarius Wright (ankle) and Laquon Treadwell (thumb) were all limited in practice this week. Diggs is listed as probable, Treadwell as questionable and Wright as doubtful. Then again, Wentz has proven over and over (like Dak), that he’s no normal rookie plus Bradford has plenty to prove in this one. A very low total makes the over a 10* play. |
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10-22-16 | Washington State v. Arizona State UNDER 65 | Top | 37-32 | Loss | -120 | 81 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: Mike Leach had 3-9 seasons in two of his first three years at Washington State but his 2015 team finished 9-4, after a 20-14 Sun Bowl win over Miami. However, the Cougars opened the 2016 season with back-to-back losses to Eastern Washington and Boise State, before rebounding to win four in a row (4-2, 3-0 Pac-12). Arizona St checks in at 5-2 (2-2 in the Pac-12 South) as the Sun Devils get set to host the Cougars on Saturday night. Washington State: Leach's "Air Raid" offense is led by QB Luke Falk who ranks fifth in the FBS in passing (352.2 yards per game), completing 70.6 percent with 16 TDs and 5 INTs. The offense is averaging 41.0 PPG (14th) on 509.5 YPG (18th). Washington State is off to a 3-0 start in conference play for the first time since 2003 and goes for a fifth straight win Saturday night in Tempe. Arizona State: The Sun Devils got starting QB Manny Wilkins back from a foot injury at Colorado last week but he still didn't appear to be 100 percent. He’s passed for 1,382 yards with a modest six TD passes (5 INTs) and run for 233 with four TDs. The RB duo of Demario Richard (122 carries, 495 yards, 2 TDs) and Kalen Ballage (68 carries, 324 yards, 9 TDs) is a big help plus WR Tim White has 44 catches. ASU comes in averaging 36.3 PPG. The pick. When one thinks of a Leach-coached team, his "Air Raid" offense is the first thing that comes to mind and Falk implements it well. However, WSU is off to that 3-0 start in the Pac-12 as much for its defense, as its passing game, as the Cougars have allowed only 37 points in wins at Stanford and home to UCLA over the last two Saturdays. It’s hard to forget ASU’s 68-55 win over Texas Tech back on Sep. 10, the one in which Ballage scored eight TDs (seven rushing). However, ASU has averaged just 19.7 PPG over the team's last three Pac-12 contests. The Under is an 8* play. |
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10-22-16 | Arkansas v. Auburn OVER 55.5 | Top | 3-56 | Win | 100 | 77 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: Eight SEC teams made the most recent AP top-25 poll, released on October 18. Two of them, No. 17 Arkansas (5-2, 1-2 SEC) and No. 21 Auburn (4-2, 2-1 SEC) will meet on Saturday. In the 25 meetings overall, Auburn has outscored Arkansas by just 633-629, although 11 of the past 15 meetings were decided by 17 points or more. It took four overtimes last year before the Razorbacks escaped with a 54-46 win after the teams finished regulation deadlocked at 24-24. The Razorbacks have won four of their last six overall matchups with ranked opponents and three straight on the road. The Tigers are the third consecutive ranked opponent for Arkansas, which rebounded from a 49-30 loss to top-ranked Alabama with a 34-30 win over then-No. 12 Ole Miss last week. Arkansas: The Razorbacks come in 5-2 (1-2 in the SEC) featuring the SEC’s leading rusher in Rawleigh Williams III (785 yards on 5.6 YPC with 5 TDs), who had 180 yards against Ole Miss. Arkansas averages 179.7 YPG on the ground and QB Austin Allen is completing 63.0% for 1,861 yards with 18 TDs and just 6 INTs. Allen also leads the SEC in passing yards and TD passes plus is the only player in the nation with multiple TD passes in seven games this season. The Razorbacks have put up mediocre defensive numbers (27.9 PPG on 398.9 YPG) and have really struggled to stop top-flight offenses, allowing 41.3 PPG in SEC play. Auburn: The Tigers lost two of its first three games to a pair of highly ranked teams in Clemson and Texas A&M but Auburn has reeled off four straight wins, since. Head coach Gus Malzahn credits a resurgence in the offense to the bounce-back by his team. QB Sean White (69.7% with 6 TDs and 2 INTs) is beginning to play with more confidence plus Kamryn Pettway (505 yards on 5.5 YPC with 4 TDs) is joining with starter Kerryon Johnson (538 yards on 5.1 YPC with 6 TD) to give the Tigers a one-two punch at RB (the Tigers average 262.8 YPG on the ground to rank 12th in the nation). Defensively, Auburn is allowing 16.0 PPG (11th) on 346.8 YPG (30th). The pick: Auburn has scored 96 points in its last two games and as noted above, the Arkansas defense has struggled in SEC play, allowing 45, 49 and 30 points. Auburn’s defense is top-notch but the Arkansas offense is well-balanced and has not scored less than 30 points in any of its last six games. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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10-20-16 | Bears v. Packers UNDER 46 | Top | 10-26 | Win | 100 | 52 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: The Packers’ 30-16 home loss to the Cowboys has Green Bay fans very nervous, especially with North Division rival the Minnesota Vikings sitting at 5-0 (the NFL’s lone unbeaten team). The 3-2 Packers now host the 1-5 Bears Thursday night at Lambeau, with both teams playing on a short week. These two legendary NFL teams have met 192 times (including two postseason games), with the Chicago Bears winning 94 games, the Green Bay Packers winning 92 games and the teams tying six games. However, Green Bay has won 10 of the past 12 meetings between the teams, including the 2010 NFC Championship Game. Chicago: QB Jay Cutler remains doubtful with a thumb injury but at this point, that almost has to be considered good news for the Bears. Brian Hoyer became the first QB in Chicago history to record four consecutive 300-yard passing games, after he passed for 302 yards in last Sunday’s 17-16 home loss to the Jaguars. He anticipates that he may very well be going up against a Green Bay secondary that could be without three of its top CBs, Sam Shields (concussion, injured reserve), Damarious Randall (groin) and Quinten Rollins (groin). Cameron Meredith, as second-year WR from Illinois St. caught 11 passes as a rookie but matched that total against the Jags by hauling in 11 receptions for 113 yards (giving him 26 receptions this season), while fellow WR Alshon Jeffery added 93 yards receiving on seven catches. Chicago is also getting production from rookie RB Jordan Howard (Indiana), who has run for 330 yards on 5.0 YPC on the season (he has 335 yards from scrimmage and two TDs in his first three career starts). Green Bay: While Hoyer’s putting up never-before-seen numbers for a Chicago QB, the Packers have had shockingly little success throwing the football. Aaron Rodgers' numbers didn’t look bad after the game was over in the loss to Dallas (31-of-42 for 294 yards and a 90.8 QB rating) but he turned the ball over twice (one INT & one lost fumble) and the Packers scored just one TD in four trips inside the red zone. Injuries have left a mess of Green Bay’s RB depth chart, as starter Eddie Lacy played through a sprained ankle last week and backup James Starks had knee surgery on Sunday. Green Bay acquired Knile Davis from the Chiefs in a trade on Tuesday and another option could be Don Jackson, an undrafted rookie who's on the practice squad. The Packers are averaging only 22.8 PPG, to rank 17th in the NFL. The pick: While Hoyer is putting up ‘pinball-like numbers,’ the Bears are averaging just 16.8 PPG to rank 31st, overall. In fact, they've topped 20 points only once in six games! Then you have Aaron Rodgers, who owns the NFL's best career QB rating and ranks among the all-time best in completion percentage and yards per attempt. However, he ranks 20th, 26th and 26th, respectively, in those categories in 2016! Yes, Rodgers has thrown 14 TDs and only one interception for a 127.0 QB rating in his last four games against the Bears, but we haven’t seen that version of Rodgers in quite some time. He’s gone 12 games since last throwing for 300 yards. The Under is a 10* play. |
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10-20-16 | Capitals v. Panthers OVER 5 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: The Capitals and Panthers square off tonight in Florida, with both teams checking in with identical 2-0-1 records. The Caps are coming off a 3-0 triumph against Colorado on Tuesday, while the Panthers were oh-so close to a third straight win Tuesday night at Tampa, before allowing Steven Stamkos' game-tying goal on a sharp-angled shot with just 5.5 seconds left. The Lightning would win in a shootout. Washington: The Capitals had the best record in the NHL last season (56-18-8, 120 points) but after leading the Eastern Conference in scoring in 2015-16, have put up just seven goals in the first three games. The Capitals got off to a slow start on their power play this season, enduring a 0-for-8 drought but posted their initial two power-play goals in Tuesday’s win. “The power play wasn’t bad, but we talked about needing a little bit more execution and a little bit more finish,” Washington coach Barry Trotz told reporters. “They were sharper, and then they got rewarded.” The Panthers won the Atlantic Division last season, setting franchise records for victories (47) and points (103). Florida was aggressive in the offseason, changing their uniforms, promoting Tom Rowe to GM and re-signing many of their core players. However, they also brought in nine new players. So far, they have meshed well. Goalie Roberto Luongo, who was rested Tuesday, is expected back in net after stopping 44 of 46 shots in the first two games. The pick: Holtby (1.45 GAA and a .942 save percentage) is expected to be in net against Luongo (0.98 GAA and .957 save percentage) but watch out, these teams have the ability to score. Washington was 2-of-5 on power-play chances the last time out and Alex Ovechkin told the media after the game, "We have so much skill with the five guys who play there, and we use it." Ovechkin notched his first goal Tuesday and has tallied 33 times in 54 career games against Florida. The Over is a 10* play. |
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10-20-16 | Miami (Fla) v. Virginia Tech UNDER 51 | Top | 16-37 | Loss | -107 | 51 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: Mark Richt spent 15 years at Georgia and led the Bulldogs to a 145-541 record and a bowl invite in each season but that was not good enough for him to keep his job. He was quickly scooped up by Miami-Fla and the Hurricanes opened the 2016 at 4-0, earning a No. 10 ranking in the AP poll of Oct. 2. However, the ‘Canes lost another tough one to FSU, falling 20-19 for a 7th straight time to the Seminoles. That defeat came at home, as did last Saturday's 20-13 loss to North Carolina, dropping Miami from the top-25. Va Tech also fell out of the top-25 last Saturday, with a shocking 31-17 loss at Syracuse, as more than a three-TD favorite. Miami: The “canes’ running game has produced just 201 yards rushing in their back-to-back losses (on 3.1 YPC), as Mark Walton (566 yards on 5.6 YPC and 8 TDs) and Joe Yearby (434 yards on 6.8 YPC and 6 TDs) have been kept in check with Walton gaining a modest 121 yards and Yearby only 113. QB Brad Kaaya is a talent but he was just 16 of 31 for 224 yards without a TD pass against the Tar Heels. Miami’s defense remains top-notch, allowing just 14.0 PPG (6th) on 313.5 YPG (15th). Va. Tech: The Hokies looked awful at Syracuse, allowing the Orange to roll up 561 yards and 32 FDs. QB Dungey passed for 311 yards (added 106 yards rushing) and Syracuse also connected on an 84-yard halfback-option TD pass. QB Jerod Evans (ACC-best 170.7 QB rating) has thrown for 1,352 yards with 17 TD passes with just 2 INTs, while rushing for 319 yards and two TDs. Note that despite its Carrier Dome meltdown, the Va. Tech defense ranks 7th in yards allowed (291.5 YPG) and 15th in points allowed (18.2 PPG). The pick: Richt lost three games in a row just once during his 15 years at Georgia and sure needs to avoid that happening here in Year-One of his stay at Miami. Justin Fuente (from Memphis) is in his first year at Va. Tech, taking over for the legendary Frank Beamer, and this game is likely to either jump-start or way-lay the remainder of the Hokies schedule. Much is on the line in this one and I believe two excellent defenses ‘rule’ the game. The Under is a 10* play. |
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10-17-16 | Senators v. Red Wings UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -118 | 18 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: The Ottawa Senators have opened 2-0-0 while the Detroit Red Wings’ 2016-17 season is going in opposite direction at 0-2-0. The Senators missed the playoffs last season (38-35-9, 85 points) while the Red Wings went 41-30-11 (93 points) and reached the playoffs for the 25th consecutive season, the longest current streak in the NHL. Ottawa: The Senators have defeated the Toronto Maple Leafs 5-4 in OT on Wednesday night in their opener and then won a 4-3 shootout over the Montreal Canadiens Saturday night. "Early in the season, it's good to grow and learn from different things ...," Senators forward Ryan Dzingel told the Ottawa Sun after Saturday night's game. "We grew as a team. Both wins helped us out a lot." Former Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson leads the team with four points (one goal, three assists) but also has shown improvement in his own end with a plus-3 rating in the first two contests. Detroit: The Red Wings were eliminated in the first round of the NHL playoffs by the Tampa Lightning in five games and the team's woes have continued in the first two games of the 2016-17 season, as it’s the first time that Detroit has lost its first two games of a season since 2009. The Red Wings defensive play was an issue last season and the Red Wings have already surrendered numerous breakaways and odd-man rushes. Head coach Jeff Blashill switched up his defense pairings Saturday against Florida to little effect, putting Mike Green with Danny DeKeyser while Alexei Marchenko skated beside Brandon Smith. However, the result was a 4-1 loss. The pick: This marks the Senators first road game of the season and the Red Wings badly need to get into the win column. Ottawa finished 29th in the league in penalty-killing a season ago but the good news is that the Senators have allowed just one goal in eight short-handed situations against Toronto and Montreal. To win, the Red Wings need to improve defensively but also the Red Wings managed only 22 shots on goal in their last game. The team’s top offensive threats Dylan Larkin, Tomas Tatar and Zetterberg have combined for just two points after two games with a minus-12 rating. The Under is a 10* play. |
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10-16-16 | Colts v. Texans UNDER 46 | Top | 23-26 | Loss | -100 | 148 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: The 2-3 Colts visit Houston to take on the 3-2 Texans in a very important AFC South matchup. If the Colts win, they will be tied with the Texans but a loss means the Texans move to 4-2 and the Colts fall two games back. The Colts dominated this division with Peyton but the Texans have won the division three times in the last five years, while the Colts won in 2013 and 2014 behind Andrew Luck. Indianapolis: Luck has thrown for 10 TDs against only three interceptions while tying for fourth in the league with 1,469 yards passing but he also has been sacked an NFL-high 20 times behind Indianapolis' shaky offensive line. "You don't want your quarterback hit. Period," Colts coach Chuck Pagano said. "We're trying to do everything possible to make sure that doesn't happen and limit that. He knows that and everybody knows that." Luck has gotten little help from his running game, which averages 90.0 YPG on 4.0 YPC. The Colts rank 7th offensively with 27.4 PPG but Indianapolis ranks 30th overall (410.6 YPG) in total defense and allows 29.6 PPG (31st) Houston: The Texans made a big commitment in signing QB Brock Osweiler as a free agent ($37 million guaranteed) but Houston ranks 27th in total offense (310.4 YPG), 29th in passing (208.6 YPG) and 31st in scoring at 16.4 PPG. Osweiler has completed only 58.0 percent with six TDs and seven INTs and owns a horrific QB rating of 70.6. The Houston defense will have to go without J.J. Watt but it ranks 6th in YPG (330.4) and 13th in PPG (20.8). The Texans have been dismal on the road (0-2 and outscored 58-13) but look to remain perfect at home, where they are 3-0 and allowing 15.3 PPG. The pick: Luck has won his last five starts against Houston but if he wins here, it won’t be because the Colts outscore the Texans. The Houston defense ranks No. 1 in passing yards allowed (181.0 per game) and third in completion percentage (56.9%) and in opposing QB rating (79.0). Meanwhile, Houston’s offense has been held captive by ineffective Brock Osweiler. The Under is a 10* play. |
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10-16-16 | Dodgers v. Cubs UNDER 6.5 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 105 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
full analysis soon |
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10-16-16 | Ravens v. Giants OVER 44 | Top | 23-27 | Win | 100 | 141 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: Baltimore Ravens opened 3-0 but those three victories came by just a combined 13 points. The Ravens have since lost back-to-back games 28-27 and 16-10 at home to the Raiders and Redskins, respectively. The Giants know how they feel, as after edging the Cowboys 20-19 in Week 1 at Dallas, the Giants just got past the Saints back in New Jersey, 16-13. However, like the Ravens, the Giants have struggled after a good start, losing three in a row (29-27 at home to Washington, then 24-10 at Minnesota and 23-16 at Green Bay). Clearly, the loser of this game will have a tough road ahead the rest of the season. Baltimore: The Ravens decided to fire offensive coordinator Marc Trestman following that 16-10 loss at home to Washington last week and promoted QBs coach Marty Mornhinweg, who has previous experience as an NFL offensive coordinator with Philadelphia and the New York Jets. "Marty is an exciting guy," QB Joe Flacco told reporters. "He brings a lot of confidence to the room. He is very sure in what he's doing and what we're doing. We'll be a little more confident going forward in shoring things up and doing what we do best." Mornhinweg is expected to put more emphasis on the running game in an effort to open up more play-action passes, as Flacco enters Week 6 leading the NFL in passing attempts with 216 but is 31st among 32 qualifying QBs with an average of 5.94 YPA. He has connected with receivers on only 12 passes of 20 or more yards. Baltimore’s running game NEEDS to improve, as the Ravens are averaging just 99.0 YPG on 4.1 YPC. NY Giants: Eli opened the season with three TD passes in a win over the Cowboys (still, Dallas’ lone loss of 2016) but has just two TD passes in four games since, while attempting 159 passes. OBJ finally had his first TD catch last week but enters with just that one among his 27 receptions through five games. The Giants rushing attack is worse than Baltimore’s averaging 83.6 YPG (27th) on only 3.8 YPC. New York fans surely never thought this team would be averaging only 17.8 PPG (27th) through five games. The pick: The Giants are averaging just 17.8 PPG and the Ravens just 18.8 but the over/number number is higher than I anticipated. All of Baltimore’s games have been decided by six points or less and this team still owns a stingy defense, ranking 3rd in total defense (266.8 YPG) and 6th in points allowed (17.6 PPG). The Under is a 10* play. |
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10-15-16 | Colorado State v. Boise State UNDER 59 | Top | 23-28 | Win | 100 | 126 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: Boise State has opened 5-0 (2-0 in MWC play) and hosts 3-3 Colorado State (1-1 in the MWC) on Saturday, having risen to No. 15 in the AP poll (Broncos were unranked at the beginning of the season). Colorado State: The Rams trailed Utah State last Saturday by 14 points but ended the game on a 21-0 run over the last two-plus quarters for a 31-24 victory. However, freshman QB Collin Hill (1,096 yards with 8 TDs and INTs) was lost for the season with a torn ACL in his left knee. "That's football. You're going to have injuries, you're going to have setbacks, you're going to have some adversity," Rams head coach Mike Bobo said at a press conference. Junior Nick Stevens has regained the starting QB position he lost after a poor season-opening performance by default. However, he wasn’t bad in 2015, passing for 2,679 yards and 21 TDs and 12 INTs. CSU is averaging a very modest 24.8 PPG (96th), while the defense is allowing 28.7 PPG (74th). Boise State: Sophomore QB Brett Rypien is flying under the radar but he’s coming off a career-best five TD passes in last week's 49-21 victory over New Mexico despite playing only 2 1/2 quarters. Rypien has passed for 1,415 yards with 11 TDs and 3 INTs, with WRs Sperbeck (19.1 YPC) and Wilson (18.8 YPC) each hauling in 5 TD catches apiece. RB McNichols (558 yards on 5.1 YPC with 9 TDs), leads a so-so running game averaging 154.4 YPG. The defense is allowing a modest 18.6 PPG (19th) on 370.6 YPG (46th). The pick: Boise State is no longer an elite national program (of years past!) but the weakness of the MWC may allow this team to go undefeated. The Broncos are a big favorite here (around 4 TDs) but they are coming off back-to-back revenge wins over Utah State and New Mexico. Boise St. also has a revenge game up next against BYU on a short week (Thursday, Oct. 20), so the Broncos may be a little flat for this one. The Rams’ 21-0 run to seal last Saturday’s win against Utah State (on Homecoming, no less), should give the Rams some confidence. This game may be closer that the pointspred indicates but as for me, it’s a 10* play on the Under. |
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10-15-16 | Western Kentucky v. Middle Tennessee State UNDER 70.5 | Top | 44-43 | Loss | -110 | 118 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: Western Kentucky (3-3, 1-1 in C-USA) visits Middle Tennessee State (4-1, 2-0 in C-USA) on Saturday. The home team sits atop the C-USA East, tied with Old Dominion and FIU, so the visiting Hilltoppers can ill-afford to lose here and fall to 1-2 (MTSU would be 3-0, ODU has a bye and FIU plays at Charlotte). Western Kentucky: The Hilltoppers trailed La. Tech 49-24 in the middle of the third quarter a week ago Thursday but made a furious rally, as a blocked punt and Mike White scoring passes of 31, 8 and 11 yards pulled WKU within three before it fell short, 55-52 WKU’s pass D was shredded in that contest, as the Bulldogs’ QB, Ryan Higgins, passed for 454 yards and 5 TDs. That effort leaves Western Ky ranked 115th in pass D, allowing 290.7 YPG. QB Mike White has thrown for 1,707 yards while completing 65.8% with 14 TDs and just 3 INTs. He owns a pair of excellent wide-outs in Taylor (42 catches / 4 TDs) and Norris (36 catches / 8 TDs). Middle Tennessee State: The Blue Raiders also own a prolific QB in Brent Stockstill, who has thrown for 1,657 yards (in just five games) while completing 61.7% with 15 TDs and only 4 INTs. Multi-dimensional RB I’Tavius Mathers, an Ole Miss transfer, has run for 582 yards (6.3 YPC & 8 TDs) plus has 20 receptions and two more TDs. This offense can surely trade scores with Western Ky, as MTSU averages 37.6 PPG (32nd) but the Blue Raiders can also play some defense, allowing 23.0 PPG, which ranks 40th in the nation. The pick: It may look easy to say “over,” especially if one looks at last year’s game, a 58-28 Western Ky win. However, I expect the home team to dictate play here and for this contest rto stay below this huge number. The Under is an 8* play. |
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10-14-16 | Duke v. Louisville OVER 71 | Top | 14-24 | Loss | -110 | 99 h 42 m | Show |
Duke: I guess one can make the case that the Blue Devils won 38-35 in South Bend against Notre Dame, running up 498 totals yards but these days, a win over the Fighting Irish is hardly anything to brag about. Duke (3-3, 0-2 in the ACC) is coming off a 13-6 win over Army, as the two teams played in torrential rain conditions brought on by Hurricane Matthew. QB Daniel Jones completed just 7 of his 15 pass attempts for 41 yards under extremely difficult conditions. However, the QB leads all freshmen nationally in pass completions (132) while ranking second among first-year players in passing yards (1,455) and total offensive yards (1,634) but has more INTs (eight) than TD passes (seven). Duke came into the 2016 season off four consecutive bowl appearances, averaging over 30 PPG each season. However, this year’s team is averaging just 24.5 PPG to rank 98th of 128 FBS teams. Louisville: The Cardinals haven’t played since October 1, when they lost 42-36 at Clemson. QB Lamar Jackson failed to account for at least five TDs in a game for the first time this season against Clemson but still accumulated 457 total yards. He ranks second in the country in total yardage (462.6) and leads the nation in rushing TDs (14). He’s passed for 1,625 yards (14-4 ratio) and run for 688 yards on 7.5 YPC. Louisville ranks first in both scoring (58.0 PPG) and total yards (659.2 per). The Cardinals' last home game was September 17 (a 63-20 win over Florida State), so this will be the team’s first home game in almost a month and its first since losing at Clemson. The pick: Louisville could have put an early stranglehold on the ACC with a win in Death Valley but Clemson rallied for two fourth-quarter TDs and sealed the win by stopping Louisville a yard short of a FD inside Clemson's five-yard-line with just about 30 seconds to play. Louisville head coach Bobby Petrino told reporters, “We understand we have zero room for error, we've got to take care of our business week in and week out and then maybe we'll still have that opportunity." Duke’s D allowed Notre Dame and Virginia to average 34.5 PPG on 482.0 YPG prior to the team’s game vs. Army (played in torrential rain conditions). Who knows how many points Jackson and Co. will run up coming off the team's loss to Clemson? Meanwhile, not counting playing in a downpour against Army, Duke’s offense averaged 464.0 YPG against ND and UVA. The Over is an 8* play. |
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10-13-16 | Islanders v. Rangers UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -135 | 18 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: The New York Rangers will open a season at Madison Square Garden for the first time since 2007 and fittingly it will come against the New York (Brooklyn?) Islanders. The Rangers (101) and Islanders (100) are both coming off 100-point seasons, yet each team finds itself with something to prove entering their season opener. The Rangers got manhandled in a first-round loss to eventual Stanley Cup winner Pittsburgh, while the Islanders were bounced in the second round by the Tampa Bay Lightning The new season brings new faces for both teams. NY Islanders: The Islanders reached the postseason for the third time in four season last year. Leading scorer John Tavares (33 goals & 70 points) is back the Islanders must replace their second- and third-leading scorers in Kyle Okposo and Frans Nielsen, who combined for 42 goals and 116 points last season. Brought in to fill the void were Andrew Ladd, who has at least 23 goals in five of his last six seasons and 37-year-old Jason Chimera, a 20-goal scorer for the Washington Capitals last season. NY Rangers: The Rangers finished only three points behind the Penguins in the regular season but got outscored 21-10 while being eliminated by Pittsburgh in five games. Brassard was shipped to Ottawa for center Mika Zibanejad, a top faceoff man who posted career highs with 21 goals and 30 assists last season, while former 22-goal scorer Brandon Pirri and former Hobey Baker Award winner Jimmy Vesey of Harvard were imported as free agents. The pick: The Rangers’ netminder Henrik Lundqvist won 35 games last season but he looked quite mortal at times while sporting the highest GAA of his career at 2.48. Islanders goaltender Jaroslav Halak (18-13-4, 2.30 GAA & .919 save percentage) is dealing with an illness and his status for the opener is up in the air. The Islanders won all four matchups last year with the Rangers, giving them their first season sweep in the series. Only one of last year’s four meetings saw the final score finish with more than five combined goals, so the Under is a 10* play. |
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10-11-16 | Cubs v. Giants UNDER 7.5 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: With Arrieta and Bumgarner taking the mound last night, a 6-5 final wasn’t expected but then again, it did take 13 innings. The score was 3-3 Chicago (Arrieta had hit a three-run HR off Bumgarner), before the Giants rallied for three runs in the 8th, followed by Bryant’s two-run HR in the 9th that sent the game into extra innings. The bullpens were busy last night with Chicago using six relievers and San Francesco using five. The victory by the Giants was the team's 10th consecutive win when facing elimination, an amazing run. The pitching matchup: John Lackey (11-8, 3.35 ERA) starts for the Cubs and Matt Moore (13-12, 4.08 ERA) for the Giants. The Cubs mark the fourth team that Lackey has pitched for in the postseason. He’s won WS-clinching games for the 2002 Angels (as a rookie) and again for the 2013 Red Sox. He’s made 23 career postseason appearances (20 starts), going 8-5 with a 2.54 ERA. Lackey has faced the Giants more often in the playoffs (four times) than the regular season (three), going 2-1 with a 3.62 ERA against the Giants in those opportunities (includes six starts with his team going 3-3). Moore was acquired at the trade deadline from the Tampa Bay Rays and has never faced the Cubs. He does have postseason experience, having gone 1-1 (4.41 ERA) in four games, including two starts, for the Rays. The pick: Lackey’s a “gamer” and a veteran of situations like this, as he makes his 21st postseason start, the most among active pitchers. He pitched well down the stretch going 2-1 over his last five (Cubs were 4-1), including winning his last two with a 2.25 ERA. Moore was 4-1 in his last five starts, which including a horrific three-out effort in LA in which he allowed six ERs. However, in his four wins, he posted a 1.95 ERA (32 Ks in 27 2/3 innings), including the Giants’ wild card-clinching 7-1 win over those same Dodgers on the final day of the regular season. Classic pitchers duel anticipated. The Under is a 10* play. |
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10-10-16 | Bucs v. Panthers OVER 45.5 | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -114 | 28 h 43 m | Show |
Tampa Bay: The Bucs opened the season with a 31-24 win in Atlanta with QB Jameis Winston throwing four TD passes. However, Tampa Bay has lost three in a row since, with Winston tossing seven INTs and just four TD passes. As a rookie, he threw seven INTs in his first four games of 2015 but then settled down nicely, with just eight INTs over his last 12 games, in 402 attempts. There are worries that Winston is going through the dreaded sophomore jinx, already accounting for 10 turnovers. Tampa has had a middling offense so far, ranking 22nd in total yards (341.0 YPG) and 25th in points scored (19.2 PPG). Winston’s woes are accentuated by the lack of a running game, as Tampa Bay is averaging only 82.5 YPG rushing on 3.4 YPC. Defensively, Tampa Bay ranks 31st, allowing 32.0 PPG. Carolina: The Panthers entered the 2016 off a 15-1 regular season in 2015 but also a hugely disappointing 24-10 loss in the Super Bowl to the Broncos. Few would have predicted that Carolina would be hosting Tampa Bay in Week 5 of the current season with both teams sporting 1-3 records. Making things even worse for the Panthers on Monday night is that they will be without QB Cam Newton, who was placed in the NFL's concussion protocol after a late-game hit last week in Atlanta and was officially ruled out on Saturday. Derek Anderson will make his third start for Carolina since joining the team in 2011. He was 2-0 in his other two starts, both against the Buccaneers in 2014 when Newton was injured. Anderson finished last Sunday's game, completing 17 of 23 pass attempts for 172 yards and two TDs. He completed 49 of 74 pass attempts for 501 yards and three TDs with no interceptions in his other two starts for the Panthers. "We're going to do what we do, play who we play," Carolina coach Ron Rivera said after Saturday's practice. "We've done this before. It's that next man up mentality. We've done it before." The pick: The Panthers find themselves in a similar situation as the Cardinals did Thursday night and Arizona responded with a much-needed 33-21 win at San Francisco. Carolina saw its 14-game home winning streak end in Week 3 to the Vikings but in the Bucs, they Panthers face a team that they have dominated the last three season, going 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS against. However, while I expect Anderson to play well against a Tampa defense allowing 32.0 PPG, it’s impossible to trust a Carolina defense that’s allowing 28.0 PPG. The Over is a 10* play. |
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10-10-16 | Nationals v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: The Washington/LA Dodgers matchup is the only one of the four LDS to be tied one-all, after Sunday’s 5-2 Washington win. The Nats rode Jose Lobton's three-run HR and Daniel Murphy’s two RBI to the victory. Los Angeles stranded 12 baserunners in Sunday’s loss (went 1-of-9 with RISP) and needs others to step up outside of Corey Seager and Justin Turner. Seager has homered in each contest of the series and Turner is 4-for-6 with a HR, extending his playoff hitting streak to seven games. The series now switches to LA, without a day off because of Saturday’s rain out. The pitching matchup: Gio Gonzalez (11-11, 4.57 ERA) gets the start for Washington and Kenta Maeda (16-11, 3.48 ERA) for LA. Gonzalez is 3-1 with a 1.69 ERA in five career starts (Nats are 3-2) against the Dodgers with current players on the Dodgers' postseason roster combined for a .163 average (23-for-141) against him. Maeda made 32 starts in his first season in the majors and overall, performed well. Maeda will be facing Washington for the first time and went 7-5 with a 3.22 ERA in 15 home starts (Dodgers were 9-6). The pick: The Dodgers finished the regular season 53-28 at home, the second-best mark in the NL. That includes sweeping a three-game series with the Nats in LA from June 20-22. However, rather than choosing a side, I look for a game which will easily surpass this posted over/under number. Gonzalez struggled in five September, posting a 7.43 ERA while completing more than five innings just once. As for Maeda, he’s lasted seven innings in just TWO of his 32 starts in 2016 (the last came way back on July 10). After posting a 2.95 ERA before the All Star break, his post-break ERA was 4.25, as he allowed 12 hits, three walks and eight ERs over his final two starts (over just 6 2/3 innings for a 10.80 ERA). The Over is a 10* play. |
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10-09-16 | Titans v. Dolphins UNDER 43.5 | Top | 30-17 | Loss | -105 | 97 h 17 m | Show |
Tennessee: The Titans entered the 2016 season off 2-14 and 3-13 seasons. Tennessee has opened 1-3, winning only 16-15 at Detroit against the Lions. Head coach Mike Mularkey is clearly feeling the heat, as he fired special teams coach Bobby April just four games into the season, a long-time assistant who has twice been named Special Teams Coach of the Year. April was canned after the Titans had 12 men on the field on a Houston second-quarter punt that turned into a Texans FG last week. In the third quarter, Houston burned Tennessee for a 67-yard punt return for a TD. Those two plays cost Tennessee 10 points in a 27-20 loss within the AFC South Division that the Texans lead with a 3-1 record (a Tennessee win and both would be tied at 2-2). QB Marcus Mariota has connected on just 57-of-107 throws to his WRs and TEs for just 53.3 percent, the third-worst in the NFL. The Titans’ running game ranks fourth in the NFL averaging 127.0 YPG on 4.7 YPC. Miami: The 1-3 Dolphins have struggled offensively (328.8 YPG ranks 26th), while rushing for 77.8 YPC (ranks 28th). First-year head coach Adam Gase obviously wants to rely on QB Ryan Tannehill to provide the team’s offensive ‘punch’ but he has been average at best, gets sacked too often (11) and has five INTs (he owns a mediocre 87.3 QB rating). Miami’s defense has allowed 401.8 PPG (28th) but has allowed a middle-of-pack 22.2 PPG (16th). The pick: The Titans are 1-3 but their three losses have come to teams with a combined 9-2 record and their last two defeats have gone down to the last possession. The Tennessee defense allows a modest 21.0 PPG (14th) and when last in action (a Week 4 Thursday game at Cincinnati), Miami’s offense had just 222 total yards (74 yards one TD pass), while gaining a pathetic eight FDs. In fact, Miami enters this contest having failed to score more than 24 points in 14 straight games. Meanwhile, the Titans are averaging only 15.5 PPG, which ranks dead-last (32nd) in the NFL. The Under is a 10* play. |
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10-07-16 | Clemson v. Boston College OVER 42.5 | Top | 56-10 | Win | 100 | 58 h 42 m | Show |
Clemson: The Tigers opened ranked second in the AP preseason poll, right behind Alabama, the team that beat them in last year’s CFP championship game. QB Deshaun Watson came into the 2016 season as the Heisman favorite but two games in, a 19-13 win at Auburn and a way closer than expected 30-24 home win over Troy, created angst in Clemson and doubters among poll voters. Clemson routed South Carolina State 59-0 (who cared?) but then rode an outstanding defensive performance to win 26-7 at Ga. Tech, followed by a breakout offensive effort in last Saturday’s 42-36 win over then-No.3 Louisville. Watson had his best game of the season with 306 passing yards (5 TDs) and 91 rushing yards, getting the better of Louisville’s TD ‘machine’ Jackson, who threw for 295 yards (one TD) and ran for 162 yards (two TDs). The now third-ranked Tigers’ (5-0, 2-0) victory over Louisville gave them a major leg up in their bid for a second straight ACC Coastal Division title and berth in the conference championship game. Boston College: The Eagles have stepped down in class the last two weeks, beating Wagner 42-10 and Buffalo 35-3. However, Boston College has to be pleased with its offensive production, averaging 445.0 YPG in those two games, after being held to just 124 yards of offense in a 49-0 loss at Va. Tech on September 17. Kentucky transfer Patrick Towles threw four TD passes with no interceptions in the wins over Wagner and Buffalo, after just two TD passes and four INTs in the first three games of the season. The Eagles lead FBS teams in total defense (202 YPG), including ranking seventh in rushing D (78.0 YPG) plus check in allowing 17.2 PPG on the season, which ranks 16th. The pick: BC should gain confidence from the fact that the Eagles have covered in each of the last three seasons when playing Clemson but as good as this team’s defense has played (last year and again in 2016), the question looms that if Va. Tech can run up 49 points on them (totaling 476 yards), what kind of number can Deshaun Watson and Co. ‘hang’ on BC in this one? The Eagles haven't beaten an ACC opponent since the 2014 season finale when they beat Syracuse 28-7 (their ACC losing streak has reached 10 straight!) and they won’t win here, either. Meanwhile, Clemson’s won 19 straight regular season games, which includes an 11-game streak in ACC play. That said, laying this many points on the road makes me nervous but playing over this reasonably low total is an 8* play. That’s the bet. |
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10-07-16 | Blue Jays v. Rangers UNDER 9 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: The Blue Jays won their two regular-season games in October, after struggling to an 11-16 record in September. Doing the math, the Blue Jays averaged an AL-worst 3.69 runs RPG in their 29 September-October games. The Blue Jays then went to extra-innings tied 2-all with the Orioles min Tuesday’s wild card game, before winning 5-2 on a three-run HR in the 11th. So, there was little to expect the kind of offensive surge seen late Thursday afternoon in Game 1 of Toronto’s ALDS matchup with the Rangers. The Blue Jays jumped all over Texas ace Cole Hamels, who gave up six hits and seven runs (six earned ) in just 3 1/3 innings. When all the dust had settled, it was a 10-1 Toronto victory, as the Jays pounded out 13 hits, including two HRs and Tulowitzki’s three-run triple. Toronto starter Marco Estrada did his part as well, allowing one run and four hits in 8 1/2 innings. The loss means that Texas is now a hard-to-believe 1-10 all-time at home in ALDS matchups. That’s truly a head-scratcher, as most will remember that the Rangers advanced to back-to-back World Series appearances in 2010 and 2011. The pitching matchup: J.A. Happ (20-4, 3.18 ERA) takes the hill for Toronto and Yu Darvish (7-5, 3.41 ERA) for Texas. Happ is coming off the best season of his career (previous best was him going 12-4 with a 2.93 ERA for the Phillies in 2009), finishing as one of MLB's three 20-game winners. He also posted a career best in strikeouts (163). Happ owns a 4.82 ERA in eight career postseason games, including one start at Colorado on October 11, 2009 in which he yielded three runs and five hits over three innings while with Philadelphia. Yu Darvish missed the entire 2015 season while he was recovering from Tommy John surgery, so he was a spectator last year when the Texas Rangers lost to the Toronto Blue Jays in the ALDS. However, is fully healthy now, as he hopes to help the Rangers win their first-ever World Series. Darvish is 3-2 with a 2.45 ERA in seven career starts against the Blue Jays but did not face them this year. The pick: Going back to opening of this report, let me remind all that the Blue Jays averaged an AL-worst 3.69 runs RPG in their 29 September-October games, before winning the wild card game 5-2 (11 innings) and then Game 1 of this ALDS matchup, 10-1. Darvish finished his injury-shortened 2016 season strong, allowing fewer than two runs in three of his final four outings, including allowing just one ER in 13 innings over his final two starts. Happ, like Darvish, finished strong down the stretch, posting a 2.35 ERA over his final five regular season starts, going 3-0 (team was 4-1). The Under is an 8* play. |
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10-06-16 | Western Kentucky v. Louisiana Tech UNDER 68 | Top | 52-55 | Loss | -107 | 34 h 12 m | Show |
Western Kentucky: Jeff Brohm’s second season in Bowling Green, Kentucky was a major success, as the Hilltoppers capped the 2015 season by winning the C-USA championship game 45-28 over Southern Miss and then bested USF 45-35 in the Miami Beach Bowl. The graduation of QB Brandon Doughty (71.9% for 5055 yards with 48 TD passes) was a huge loss but RB Wales (1091 RY on 7.0 YPC) and WR Taylor (86 catches with 17 TDs) are both back. USF transfer Mike White seems capable at QB (63.5% for 1367 yards with nine TD passes) plus Wales (341 YR on 6.0 YPC with five TDs) and Taylor (33 catches for 18.2 YPC) are looking good. Western Ky is averaging 33.4 PPG (55). The Hilltoppers are 3-2 but note the losses have come at Alabama and a home to Vanderbilt. The ‘Dores are after all, another SEC team. Louisiana Tech: The Bulldogs have opened 2-3, led by QB Ryan Higgins (63.7 % for 1415 yards with 12 TDs and just two INTs) plus RB Jarred Craft (551 rushing yards on 7.2 YPC). La. Tech is averaging 36.0 PPG (44th) on 519.8 YPG (14th). The Bulldogs could be a C-USA West contender if they can take care of the football, as turnovers have been an issue for them. However, they were turnover-free in their 28-7 win over UTEP the last time out and that’s good news. The pick: Both teams can put points on the board but don’t be too quick to say “over.” The Bulldogs have three losses but they have all come by close margins, with Skip Holtz’s team almost knocking off Arkansas in the season opener (lost 21-20) and the Bulldogs battled hard against Texas Tech before falling 59-45. At first blush the over is the knee-jerk reaction but expect a tight game and for it to stay under, which is a 10* play. |
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10-04-16 | Orioles v. Blue Jays UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 19 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: The Baltimore Orioles and the Toronto Blue Jays are familiar foes, as these AL East rivals have met 19 times this regular season. The teams finished the regular season with identical 89-73 records but the Blue Jays won 10 of the 19 meetings. That one-game edge is the reason this one-game, winner-take-all wild card game is being played at Rogers Centre instead of Camden Yards. The Blue Jays outscored the Orioles in the 19 head-to-head meetings this season (97-81) and owned an edge in HRs, 29-28 (note: Baltimore all of MLB with 253 HRs). The Blue Jays were 6-4 against the Orioles in the games played here in Toronto. The pitching matchup: Chris Tillman (16-6, 3.77 ERA) starts for Baltimore and Marcus Stroman (9-10, 4.37) takes the mound for Toronto. Tillman spent some time on the DL this season but was Baltimore biggest winner (16) and its biggest money earner, as the Orioles were 22-8 in his starts (plus-$1452), the fifth-best mark among all starters. Tillman is 5-10 (5.18 ERA) in 24 career starts against Baltimore with the Orioles going 10-14. Stroman takes the mound having not won since August 14. He was 0-5 in six September starts (Blue Jays were 0-6) and in six career starts against them is 2-3 (5.84 ERA) with the Blue Jays going 2-4. The pick: The Blue Jays won their two regular-season games in October, after struggling to an 11-16 record in September.Doing the math, the Blue Jays averaged an AL-worst 3.69 runs RPG in their 29 September-October 29 games. Yes, Stroman was 0-5 in September (Orioles were 0-6) but he owned a respectable 3.41 ERA in those outings. He may just find this struggling Toronto lineup to his liking. As for Tillman, he owns a 3.63 ERA in four starts against Toronto this year, including posting a 2.38 ERA in two starts at Rogers Centre. The under is a 10* play. |
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10-03-16 | Giants v. Vikings OVER 43 | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -105 | 123 h 21 m | Show |
NY Giants: The Giants’ 29-27 home loss to the Washington Redskins last Sunday was the team’s first loss, after back-to-back close wins (one point over Dallas and a three-point win over New Orleans). Eli was impressive in the team’s two wins (QB ratings of 110.3 and 104.1) but while he passed for 350 yards vs. the Redskins, it was his two INTs that will be best-remembered. With Victor Cruz back healthy and rookie Sterling Shepard joining Odell Beckham Jr, Eli now has plenty of receiving options at his disposal. However, the running game (99.0 YPG on 3.9 YPC), leaves much to be desired. There is also great concern with the team’s pass D, which gave up 296 yards through the air last week and is dealing with myriad injuries in the secondary. Minnesota: The Vikings lost their starting QB during the preseason and hastily traded for another (getting Bradford from Philadelphia). They then lost Adrian Peterson in Week 2. However, Minnesota finished another outstanding preseason under head coach Mike Zimmer (4-0) and has opened the 2016 regular season at 3-0. Minnesota hasn't lost a game in more than eight months! Sam Bradford sat out the season opener following his acquisition from Philadelphia but has done all asked of him in two straight wins, completing 67.8 percent while throwing for 459 yards and three TDs without an interception (107.8 QB rating). Minnesota's defense has permitted only 13 points in the second half, helping to overcome 10-point deficits at Tennessee and Carolina. The pick: Minnesota’s win at Carolina was an ‘eye opener,’ as the Vikings snapped Carolina’s 14-game home winning streak. However, Minnesota has had some bad luck on Monday nights, entering this contest having lost six straight MNF games. The Giants lavished $200 million in contracts to make defensive repairs but Kirk Cousins had little trouble against that until last Sunday. Minnesota is a money-making 27-9 ATS since Zimmer took over in 2014 and the Vikings have covered 16 of their last 18 games. Now I realize that the Minnesota defense has been great but Eli and a very good trio of WRs will test them here. The over/under number is way too low. Make the Over an 8* play. |
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10-02-16 | Cowboys v. 49ers UNDER 46 | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 95 h 17 m | Show |
Dallas: The Cowboys opened the season without QB Tony Romo. Dallas started two rookies in its backfield against NFC East rival the Giants in Week 1 and lost, 20-19. However, rookies Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott have helped lead the Cowboys to consecutive wins in Week 2 and 3. QB Prescott may have only one TD pass after three games but he not thrown an interception in 99 attempts, while completing 66.7 percent of his passes. RB Elliott had his first career 100-yard game in Week 3 with 140 yards against the Bears, which followed an 83-yard effort in the team's Week 2 win over the Redskins. Dallas is winning the battle at the line of scrimmage, averaging 134.0 YPG rushing (6th), while holding opponents to a modest 91.0 YPG rushing (12th). San Francisco: The 49ers opened the 2016 season at home and delivered a dominating 28-0 win over the LA Rams. However, San Francisco has learned how quickly momentum can shift in the NFL the last two weeks, losing 46-27 and 37-18. QB Blaine Gabbert won the starting job from the controversial Kaepernick to open the season but he’s completed only 55.2 percent of his passes this season for 532 yards with three TDs and three INTs (QB rating of 68.6). The defense shut out the Rams in Week 1 but has allowed 83 points the last two games (41.5 per), while allowing 947 yards (473.5 per). The pick: Gabbert and LA’s Case Keenum are vying for the title of the NFL’s “worst starting QB” and one must think the 49ers organization must really despise Colin Kaepernick to keep sticking with Gabbert. Yes, the Cowboys are 2-1 but they are not an explosive offensive team and their defense has been pretty good, allowing 20.0 PPG. The 49ers have been manhandled on the road but don’t forget, they pitched a shut out in their Week 1 game at home (allowed 180 yards on 10 FDs). Also, let’s not forget that San Francisco allowed just 16.9 PPG in its eight home games last season, with SEVEN of the eight staying under. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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10-01-16 | Oregon v. Washington State UNDER 76 | Top | 33-51 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 24 m | Show |
Oregon: The 2-2 Oregon Ducks come into this game after back-to-back losses, 35-32 at Nebraska and then 41-38 at home to Colorado. Oregon heads to Pullman to take on Washington State with its first losing streak since 2007 (had gone 70 games without back-to-back losses!). Oregon’s freshman QB Dakota Prukop is completing 66.7 percent for 1041 yards with eight TDs and one INT. Three Oregon RBs have run for 200-plus yards, as the team averages 275.8 YPG rushing on 6.3 YPC. Star RB Royce Freeman (325 yards on 8.8 YPC with four TDs) suffered a leg injury during the Ducks' 35-22 loss to Nebraska on Sept. 17 and did not play in Oregon's 41-38 setback to Colorado last week. However, he’s fully participated in practice this week and is expected to play. Washington State: The Cougars have an outstanding QB in Luke Falk (74.1% for 1124 yards with an 11-2 ratio), coming off a season in which he completed 69.4% for 4561 yards with a 38-8 ratio. However, the running game ranks 112th at 121.7 YPG on 4.6 YPC. The 1-2 Cougars rank 91st in total defense (421.7 YPG) and 124th in pass D (324.7 YPG). The Cougars routed Idaho 56-6 back on September 17 for their first victory of 2016, after opening the season with losses to FCS member Eastern Washington 45-42 and at Boise State 31-28. Oregon head coach Mark Helfrich told reporters. "Obviously with a bye week, Wash. St. might do something a bit differently. The Cougars have done some five-down stuff against us in the past and a lot of pressure the last time we were there." The pick: The natural tendency is to call for a high-scoring game but the over/number on this one is just way too high. Washington State stunned the Ducks 45-38 in double overtime last season to snap an eight-game slide to Oregon. I expect Oregon to not lose three in arow and avenge last year’s loss but the under is the stronger play and I’ll make it a top-rated 10*. |
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09-30-16 | A's v. Mariners UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
analysis posted very shortly (10*) |
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09-29-16 | Connecticut v. Houston OVER 50 | Top | 14-42 | Win | 100 | 27 h 60 m | Show |
UConn: The Huskies are 2-2 but are clearly in over their heads here against No.6-ranked Houston (4-0). Making matters worse, Houston gets a chance to avenge its ONLY loss from last year (Cougars were 13-1) when it hosts Connecticut in an American Athletic Conference game Thursday night. Both starting QBs missed the majority of last year's meeting, a 20-17 UConn home victory but both are healthy for this one. However, Bryant Shirreffs of UConn is hardly a match for Houston’s Greg Ward Jr. Sherriffs is completing 66.9 percent for 819 yards but has only two TD passes, as well as two INTs. UConn is averaging a a modest 21.2 PPG (109th) on 354.5 YPG (103rd). The defense is solid though, holding opponents to a respectable 22.5 PPG (46th) on 381.0 YPG (55th). Houston: Greg Ward Jr. was held out of Houston’s second game against Lamar (poor field conditions plus he was nursing an injured right shoulder) but in three games has 936 yards passing with five TDs and two INTs. The offense averages 44.8 PPG (12th) on 497.5 YPG (23rd), with great balance (274.2 YP and 223.2 YR). Ward has 113 yards rushing and four others have 125-plus-yards on the ground. This Houston team is for real and whether one wants to classify it as a "revenge game" or not, expect the Cougars to be looking for a little payback. The pick: Houston takes a 10-game home winning streak into this contest and has averaged 41.8 PPG in that streak. Yes, UConn has a solid defense but the Huskies ruined the Houston's perfect season last year and I see no way the Cougars won’t at least score what they have averaged so far in 2016 (that’s right at 45 points). Make the Over an 8* play. |
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09-28-16 | Mariners v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 12-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: Houston opened its final seven-game homestand last Thursday against the Angels just one game out of the second AL wild card spot. However, the Astros lost the first three games, before winning 4-1 on Sunday. Houston then lost 4-3 in 11-innings Monday to the Mariners, dropping them 3 1/2 games out of the final wild card spot and with just five games left. The Mariners moved 1 1/2 games ahead of the Astros in the AL wild-card race but they were still two games behind the Orioles, who were idle on Monday. The Astros won 8-4 Tuesday night, moving them within 2 1/2 games of the Orioles (5-1 losers at Toronto). That Baltimore loss allowed Seattle to remain within 1 1/2 games of the Orioles, despite Tuesday’s defeat. However, time is running out on both the Mariners and the Astros, as the teams cap a three-games series Wednesday afternoon in Houston. The pitching matchup: James Paxton (5-7, 3.72 ERA) takes the mound for Seattle and Doug Fister (12-12, 4.42) does so for Houston. Paxton is 0-2 with a 4.74 ERA over three career starts against the Astros (Seattle is 0-3). He comes off ending a five-start winless streak by allowing just one run on five hits while striking out nine over seven innings against Minnesota in his last outing. Fister was first selected by Seattle back in the 2006 draft (seventh round) and makes his eighth career start against the Mariners (he’s 4-2 with a 4.64 ERA with his teams going 4-3). The pick: Paxton is 0-2 versus Houston this year (posting a 6.00 ERA) and Fister limps in winless over his last six outings (he’s 0-3 and the team 0-6), with a 9.35 ERA, after allowing six or more ERs in three of the starts. The Over is a 10* play. |
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09-27-16 | Brewers v. Rangers UNDER 10 | Top | 4-6 | Push | 0 | 19 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: The Rangers lost 8-3 last night at home vs. the Brewers and that allowed the idle Red Sox (who currently own an 11-game winning streak) to move a half-game ahead of them for the AL’s best record. More bad news came Monday with Cleveland’s 7-4 win and the Rangers are now just a half-game up on the Indians. If Texas falls behind both teams, its ALDS matchup would come on the road, as would its potential ALCS matchup. I noted Monday that while Milwaukee’s 30-46 road record is among the worst in MLB, the Brewers have now won 11 of their last 16 on the road. The pitching matchup: Jimmy Nelson (8-15, 4.50 ERA) goes for Milwaukee up against Texas’ A.J. Griffin (7-4, 4.94 ERA). Nelson leads the National League in losses and enters this game having posted a 5.82 ERA over his last three starts, while giving up five HRs during that stretch. Griffin lasted just 1 2/3 innings in his last outing, leaving him winless over his last three starts, posting a 9.24 ERA during the stretch. The pick: Looking at just the starting pitchers would cause one to play the over. However, the Texas bats have been extremely quiet, scoring just 28 runs over the last nine games (that’s 3.11 per game!). As for Milwaukee, despite the team’s 8-3 win last night, the Brewers enter tonight’s game having scored just 26 runs over their last eight games (3.25 per game). The Under is a 10* play. |
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09-26-16 | Mariners v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: Houston opened its last four-game home series (Thursday-Sunday) with the Angels just one game out of the second AL wild card slot but lost the first three games, before winning 4-1 on Sunday. Seattle won two of three games over the Twins at Minnesota Friday through Sunday and now sits at 82-73. That leaves the Mariners 2 1/2 games back of the final wild card spot and the Astros check in a half-game back of Seattle at 82-74. Do either of these teams have a realistic wild card chance? Probably not and only a three-game sweep by one or the other would give that team at least a “whiff of a chance.” The pitching matchup: Hisashi Iwakuma (16-12, 4.04 ERA) goes for Seattle and Collin McHugh (12-10, 4.61 ERA) will take the mound for Houston. Iwakuma is 35-year-old and won 14 and 15 games in his first two full seasons of 2013 and 2014. He then won just nine games in 2015 (injuries limited him to 20 starts) but has rebounded to win 16 games this year in 31 starts. However, his 4.04 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and opponents BA of .280 are all career highs. McHugh enters on a seven-start unbeaten streak in which he’s gone 5-0 (Astros are 7-0). The pick: Iwakuma is coming off an abysmal outing (six runs allowed on eight hits in 3 1/3 innings of a 10-2 loss to Toronto last Tuesday) but I expect him to rebound here vs. a Houston team which averaged just 3.5 RPG in losing three of four home games to the Angels over the weekend. As for McHugh, he hasn’t lost since August 13 and his ERA is 1.53 over his last three starts. More importantly, he’s dominated Seattle in 2016, going 4-0 with a 1.08 ERA in four outings. The Under is a 10* play. |
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09-25-16 | Rams v. Bucs UNDER 42 | Top | 37-32 | Loss | -109 | 100 h 6 m | Show |
LA Rams: Los Angeles traded up to the No. 1 pick in the draft to get QB Jared Goff from Cal but head coach Jeff Fisher insists the team only will play him when he's ready. In the meantime, the Rams have started Case Keenum, who ranks ranks last in the NFL among 33 qualifying QBs with a 57.8 rating and a 53.8 completion percentage. RB Todd Gurley, who ran for 1106 yards as a rookie, has just 98 yards rushing (2.7 YPC, compared to 4.8 last year) after two games. In all, the Rams have yet to score a TD in 2016 but the team which has scored just nine points through two games, is actually 1-1 after shocking Seattle 9-3 in Week 2, the team’s first home game in LA since 1994. The Rams will take the field on Sunday, looking to avoid joining the 1976 Buccaneers, as the only teams in the NFL to fail to score a TD in the first three games of a season. Tampa Bay: Ironically, the 2016 Bucs, are the Rams’ opponent in this one. The Bucs opened the season with a 31-24 win over the Falcons at Atlanta in Week 1 but then lost 40-7 at Arizona in Week 2 to the Cardinals. QB Jameis Winston had four TD passes and just one INT in Week 1 but then had one TD pass and four INTs in Week 2 (plus added a fifth turnover with a lost fumble). Adding insult to injury, Tampa Bay lost leading rusher Doug Martin to a hamstring injury. He is expected to miss about three weeks. "We haven’t been tested yet this season in that department," Buccaneers first-year coach Dirk Koetter told reporters about the possibility of his team bouncing back after the Loss in Week 2, "but the fact that we’re coming into our own home stadium for our home opener, that’s definitely going to be what we’re working for.” This marks Koetter’s first NFL head coaching job and the jury is still out on him. As for Fisher, rumors are swirling surrounding just how long of a leash he’ll get with the Rams. The pick: There was a time, not all that long ago,” that the Rams (while in St. Louis) were known as the “Greatest Show on Turf.” However, they visit Tampa as the only team in the NFL without a TD after two games, while averaging 4.5 PPG. Many feel as if the game has passed Fisher by years ago. His OL is well below average plus LA owns arguably the NFL’s worst starting QB, paired with the worst set of WRs in the league. No wonder Todd Gurley is averaging just 72 total yards during his last nine games, as defenses have been able to key in on him, constantly. However, the Rams’ D owns one of the NFL’s best defensive lines and just ask Russell Wilson and the Seahawks how tough this unit can be. The Bucs should win but the game staying Under is the better play. The Under is a 10* play.. |
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09-24-16 | Florida State v. South Florida OVER 61 | Top | 55-35 | Win | 100 | 72 h 4 m | Show |
Florida State: The Seminoles visit Raymond James Stadium to take on the USF Bulls, fresh off an embarrassing 63-20 loss this past Saturday at Louisville. FSU was totally outplayed by the Cardinals last weekend, getting outgained 530-to-284 in yards. Louisville QB Jackson passed for 216 yards with a TD pass plus ran for 146 yards, adding four TDs on the ground. In all, Louisville ran for 314 yards on 6.8 YPC with seven rushing TDs. Meanwhile, FSU’s freshman QB Deondre Francois looked inept, completing 7 of 18 for 101 yards with a TD and an INT. Dalvin Cook, among a group of preseason Heisman favorites, had just 54 yards rushing and after three games, no longer has any Heisman hopes with 228 rushing yards and two TDs. South Florida: The USF Bulls are off to a 3-0 start for the first time since 2011, after rallying to win 45-20 at Syracuse last week. USF fell behind 17-0 after the first quarter last Saturday but then ran off 28 unanswered points in the second quarter. The Bulls are averaging 49.7 PPG (7th-best in the nation) after three games on 518.7 YPG (19th). Five players have run for 99 yards or more, including QB Quinton Flowers (150), who has also thrown for 716 yards with seven TDs and just one INT. Defensively, the Bulls have allowed just 19.0 PPG (38th) on 386.3 YPG (70th) but the team is well aware that it will face an FSU team which will be angry and focused after being embarrassed by Louisville. The pick: USF head coach Willie Taggart told reporters when referring to this game with FSU, “I think it will be big, just from a respect (standpoint) and getting national attention. We don’t want anyone to give it to us, we want to earn it, and it’s a hell of an opportunity for us to go out and do that this weekend.” The Bulls went just 6-18 in Taggert’s first two seasons at Tampa but last year’s team was 8-5, after losing 45-35 to Western Ky in the Miami Beach Bowl. The Bulls averaged 33.6 PPG last season (up from 13.8 and 17.2 in Taggert’s first two season) and as noted, is averaging almost 50 PPG to open 2016. The going will be much tougher against FSU but I expect the Bulls to hold their own. However, stopping FSU may be too much to expect. FSU head coach Jimbo Fisher is anxious to see how his Seminoles come back after suffering the worst loss in his seven-year stint with the 'Noles. Note that in the past five years, FSU is undefeated in games following a loss. The Seminoles last suffered back-to-back defeats in 2011 and their streak of 66 games without consecutive losses ranks second nationally only to Oregon (70). I say the Over is an 8* play. |
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09-22-16 | Texans v. Patriots OVER 40.5 | Top | 0-27 | Loss | -104 | 32 h 27 m | Show |
Houston: The Texans signed Brock Osweiler to a four-year, $72 million contract in the offseason and Houston has to be happy with the team’s 2-0 start. Osweiler has thrown for a modest 499 yards in two games with three TDs and three INTs, giving him a poor 79.2 QB rating. However, he has overcome a first-quarter interception in both games this season, as Pro Bowl selection DeAndre Hopkins and first-round rookie Will Fuller are already looking like quite a duo. Hopkins leads the team with 12 catches (he had 111 receptions for 1521 yards with 11 TDs in 2015) and Fuller has nine catches for a team-high 211 yards, becoming just the third WR to start his NFL career with two straight 100-yard receiving games. The J.J. Watt-led defense ranks third (274.5 YPG) in yards allowed, while allowing just 13.0 PPG and already leads the NFL in sacks with nine. New England: The four-game Jimmy Garoppolo era opened with a 23-21 win in Phoenix against the Cardinals in Week 1, as Garoppolo looked poised and efficient, finishing 24 of 33 for 264 yards and a TD (106.1 QB rating). He then threw three TDs in Week 2 against the Dolphins, as the Pats jumped out to a 24-0 lead. However,Garoppolo suffered a sprained AC joint in his right shoulder, forcing Jacoby Brissett to complete the game. He completed 6-of-9 passes for 92 yards but never threw the ball downfield, as the Pats held on for a 31-24 win. Yes, Gronk (hamstring) has yet to make his season debut but fellow TE Martellus Bennett has made his presence felt since being acquired from Chicago in March. He has played on all but two offensive snaps over the first two games and has eight catches, including a 20-yard TD reception last Sunday. WRs Edelman (14 catches) and Amendola (eight) are doing their jobs, as well. Then you have RB LeGarrette Blount, who has run for 193 yards and two TDs. The pick: Bill O'Brien was Belichick's offensive coordinator before O'Brien left to become head coach at Penn State. His defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel had the same job in New England. Linebackers coach Mike Vrabel played for the Patriots, as did nose tackle Vince Wilfork. These staffs are very familiar. Don’t be surprised if Osweiler plays his best of the year so far in this one and as for the New England QB situation, the Patriots have kept the door open for Garoppolo to still dress for Thursday's game while WR Julian Edelman, who played QB at Kent State, could serve as an emergency option. New England last started a rookie QB in 1993 (Drew Bledsoe started that year’s season finale) but while the Houston defense is top-notch, the Patriots find ways to put points on the board, especially here in Foxboro. This over/under number is tantalizingly low for a Patriots home game and I’m making the over a 10* play. |
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09-22-16 | Clemson v. Georgia Tech UNDER 58 | Top | 26-7 | Win | 100 | 32 h 35 m | Show |
Clemson: Last year’s national runners-up were unimpressive in victories against unranked Auburn (19-13) and Troy (30-24) to open the season, then hardly learned much about themselves in a 59-0 rout of undermanned South Carolina State last Saturday, a game that was mutually agreed on to be shortened to two, 12-minute quarters in the second half. Deshaun Watson opened the year as the preseason favorite for the Heisman Trophy but he’s hardly looked the part, passing for a modest 692 yards with seven TDs and three interceptions, while adding just 84 rushing yards without a score. Let’s not forget, he passed for 4104 yards (and 35 TDs), while rushing for 1105 yards (and 12 TDs) in 2015. Overall, Clemson’s running game, which averaged 223 YPG on 4.9 YPC last season, comes in averaging a modest 166.7 YPG on 4.2 YPC. However, the Clemson defense has shown no drop-off from last year’s outstanding unit, allowing 250.0 YPG (8th-best) and 12.3 PPG (11th-best). Georgia Tech: The Yellow Jackets opened 2-0 last year (winning by scores of 69-6 and 65-10) but Ga. Tech would lose nine of its last 10 games. Paul Johnson had led Ga. Tech to a bowl game in each of his first seven season in Atlanta, so the Yellow Jackets opened this season “on a mission of redemption.” The team opened 2016 by winning 17-14 over Boston College in Ireland (scoring the game-winning TD with only 35 seconds left in the game), then beat Mercer 35-10 at home but c’mon, Mercer is an FCS school playing in just its fourth season. Last Saturday’s 38-7 victory over Vanderbilt was better, as after that poor effort vs. BC, the Yellow Jackets’ option attack has been in high gear the past two games. Ga. Tech has rolled up 955 total yards in lopsided wins over Mercer and Vanderbilt, including running for 653 yards on 6.7 YPC. Ga. Tech’s bend-don’t-break defense has allowed just 10.3 PPG, seventh-fewest in the nation. The pick: Clemson began the year ranked No. 2 but enters this game at No. 5 and as all are likely aware, have an October 1 home game with the Louisville Cardinals (currently No. 3 in the AP poll). Meanwhile, the 3-0 Yellow Jackets are just midway down the list of schools in the "Others Receiving Votes" section of this week's AP top-25 but Bobby Dodd Stadium has not been too kind recently to the Tigers, who haven't defeated Georgia Tech in Atlanta since 2003! In fact, the home team has won each of the last seven meetings, with the Yellow Jackets having won five straight against Clemson here in Atlanta. Georgia Tech is 7-2 SU at home against ranked opponents under Johnson, including wins over ranked Clemson teams in 2011 and 2014. I’m not ready to pull the trigger on an upset call here but like Clemson’s game at Auburn (a 19-13 win), the Under is the play. Make it a 10*. |
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09-18-16 | Packers v. Vikings OVER 43.5 | Top | 14-17 | Loss | -110 | 103 h 48 m | Show |
Green Bay: Aaron Rodgers had his lowest completion percentage (60.7) and passing yards per game (238.8) since taking over as the team's starter in 2015 due to the absence of WR Jordy Nelson, who missed the entire 2015 season with a torn ACL (Nelson had 98 receptions for 1,519 yards and 13 TDs in 2014). Nelson had a relatively quiet 2016 debut with six catches for 32 yards but Rodgers had two TD passes and ran for another in a 27-23 victory at Jacksonville. Green Bay’s defense held the Jaguars to 48 yards rushing but was burned for 320 yards through the air and barely held on for the win. Minnesota: Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer is the ‘king’ of the preseason for sports bettors, going 11-2 ATS, and let’s also note that he’s now also also 24-9 ATS in the regular season (he begins his third season here in 2016), after a 77-yard INT return and 24-yard fumble return for TDs sparked a run of 25 unanswered points for the Vikings after they were held off the scoreboard in the first half. QB Shaun Hill had little to do with Minnesota’s 25-16 Week 1 win plus Adrian Peterson managed only 31 yards rushing on 19 carries. Minnesota was rescued by its defense in the win at Tennessee and by all indications, Sam Bradford will get his first start for the Vikings. The pick: After all, didn’t Minnesota get him to play him? The Vikings sent first and fourth-round picks to Philadelphia for the former overall No. 1 pick and while he hasn’t lived up to expectations (he’s 25-37-1 as a starter with a career QB rating of 81.0), Bradford’s got a big-time arm that should fit nicely in offensive coordinator Norv Turner's scheme. Green Bay’s Rodgers has at least two TD passes in 11 of his last 13 meetings against the Vikings and I believe this over/under number is way too low! Make the Over a 10* play. |
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09-18-16 | Dolphins v. Patriots UNDER 41.5 | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -108 | 95 h 9 m | Show |
Miami: The Dolphins lost a heartbreaker at Seattle in Week 1, failing to stop the Seahawks and Wilson on that late-game winning drive, twice failing to stop Seattle on fourth-down conversion tries. However, Miami can blame its offense for the loss, as Tannehill and Co. totaled just 214 yards on 11 FDs (Dolphins converted just 3 of 14 3rd downs and were 0-1 in their lone 4th-down try). New England: The four-game Jimmy Garoppolo era opened with a 23-21 win in Phoenix against the Cardinals. Garoppolo was poised and efficient, finishing 24 of 33 for 264 yards and a TD (106.1 QB rating). New England will not be resting on its laurels, as a 20-10 loss at Miami in last year’s regular-season finale cost the Patriots home-field advantage in the postseason. Bill Belichick described that loss as "sickening!" The pick: The Patriots enter this game 71-21 against their AFC East opponents since 2001. New England has beaten the Dolphins seven consecutive times at Gillette Stadium and the Pats are 15-6-3 ATS the last three years in Foxboro. Coming off a game against the highly physical Seahawks is always a draining experience, so lay the points and make the Pats an 8* play. |
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09-18-16 | Saints v. Giants UNDER 53 | Top | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 95 h 9 m | Show |
New Orleans: Drew Brees passed for 419 yards and threw four TDs without an INT (was sacked just once) last Sunday against the raiders but Oakland’s 22-point fourth-quarter performance (capped by a made two-point conversion), left the Saints 0-1 to open the 2016 season. sent the saints to are a big reason why the New York Giants are 1-0 and the New Orleans Saints are 0-1 going into their matchup Sunday at MetLife Stadium. NY Giants: While the Saints lost to a 4th-quarter comeback, the Giants came from behind to beat the Cowboys 20-19 on Eli Manning's three-yard TD pass to Victor Cruz with six minutes left in last week's game in Arlington, Texas. Manning threw for a mode modest 207 yards but had three TD passes and one INT for a 110.3 QB rating. The pick: Brees and Manning combined for an NFL-record 13 TD passes when the Saints beat the Giants 52-49 last year in the Superdome. So, when the Saints play at the Giants on Sunday, it marks the first time in NFL history that two teams have played four consecutive games in which the winner has scored at least 48 points. Over? We are playing contrarian in this one. The Under is an 8* play. |
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09-17-16 | Alabama v. Ole Miss UNDER 55 | Top | 48-43 | Loss | -110 | 61 h 26 m | Show |
Alabama: The defending national champs opened 2016 with a 52-6 thrashing of USC and followed with a 38-10 win over Western Kentucky but unsurprisingly, Nick Saban has been unhappy with his team’s play. Redshirt freshman Blake Barnett started the opener against USC at QB but it was fellow freshman Jalen Hurts (two passing TDs and two rushing TDs) , who made the greater impact. Although Hurts still hasn't been declared the starting QB (even after throwing for 287 yards and two TDs in a starting assignment last Saturday'), he is the likely starter. If anyone was worried that Alabama's defense, which returned a modest five starters from last year’s unit, they can forget about that. After two games, Alabama ranks 8th in scoring (8.0 PPG) and 6th in total D (216.5 YPG), which includes ranking 3rd in rushing D (43.5 YPG). In fact, the Crimson Tide's defense has scored more TDs (two) than it has allowed (one). Ole Miss: Having to play Florida State and Alabama in one’s first three games, is hardly the way any program wants to open the year. However, that’s the fate of this year’s Rebels, plus current No. 16 Georgia and Memphis follow at home, before a bye week. Coming out of the bye, Ole Miss visits current No. 24 Arkansas and then, current No. 20 LSU. Hugh Freeze has led Ole Miss to a bowl game in each of his first four years at the school (he’s won three of them) but after a 10-win season in 2015, it’s seems highly unlikely the Rebels will match that in 2016. Senior QB Chad Kelly has thrown for 532 yards and seven TDs in two games so far, plus fueled last year’s upset of Alabama in Tuscaloosa by passing for 341 yards and three TDs. The pick: Does Ole Miss head coach Hugh Freeze own a secret formula for defeating the Crimson Tide? He’s now beaten Alabama in back-to-back seasons, 43-37 last year and 23-17 here in Oxford in 2014. Alabama’s Nick Saban hasn't lost to the same team in three consecutive seasons during his 10 seasons at the school and after seeing the Ole Miss offense struggle in the second half against Florida State, I wonder how they’ll handle Alabama’s defense. Ole Miss ran for only 67 yards against FSU (2.7 YPC) and remember, Alabama has allowed just 43.5 YPG on the ground in 2016. Just maybe, Freeze has another upset “up his sleeve,” and let’s not forget, Alabama does have two freshman QBs. However, I’ll stay away from the side but will make the Under a 10* play. |
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09-16-16 | Arkansas State v. Utah State OVER 56 | Top | 20-34 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 57 m | Show |
Arkansas State: The Red Wolves have opened 0-2, losing 31-10 at home to Toledo and then 51-14 at Auburn. The Arkansas State defense had its hands full with Auburn, as a seven-point deficit at the end of the first quarter quickly grew and the team was out of it by the half, trailing 38-7. ASU has offensive woes after just two games with only 384 passing yards without a TD pass and a modest 208 rushing yards on 2.8 YPC. Defensively, ASU is allowing 631.0 YPG (ranks 128th), on 323.5 YPG on the ground (127th) and 301.5 YPG through the air (115th). Utah State: The Aggies opened their season with a 45-6 win at home over Weber State (RB Mayes had 208 rushing yards and three TDs) but then caught an embarrassed USC team in LA, coming off a season-opening pasting by Alabama. Utah State was in the wrong place at the wrong time and got beat 45-7! Mayes got hurt and was limited to 24 yards on eight carries and after rushing for 428 yards (on 9.7 YPC) as a team against Weber State, the Aggies were held to 49 rushing yards on 26 attempts. The team’s defense was overmatched, allowing the Trojans 422 yards of total offense on 81 plays. The pick: With Mayes questionable with an injury for Utah State, expect Utah State to attack ASU’s highly vulnerable defense through the air plus the Red Wolves’ offense should have its best game of the season against a so-so Utah State defense. This makes the Over a 10* play. |
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09-14-16 | Rays v. Blue Jays UNDER 9 | Top | 8-1 | Push | 0 | 4 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: The Blue Jays beat the Rays 3-2 on Monday but Tampa Bay bounced back with a 6-2 win last night. Toronto is now 3-8 since the break but remained two games back of the Red Sox in the AL East, as Boston lost 6-3 to the Orioles. However, Baltimore’s win pulled them into a tie with Toronto for the top wild card spot (those two teams lead the Tigers and Yankees by two games and the Mariners by 2 1/2). The Rays and Jays play an early afternoon at Rogers Centre to decide this series and end the season series between the two clubs. The pitching matchup: Alex Cobb (0-0, 4.09 ERA) will be making his third start in the majors since returning from Tommy John surgery for the Rays and Marco Estrada (8-8, 3.68 ERA) starts for the Jays. Cobb allowed four runs (three earned) on nine hit in a no-decision start against the New York Yankees last Thursday at Yankee Stadium, which came after a September 2 start in Tampa vs. the Jays when he also didn’t factor in the decision while allowing four hits and two runs in five innings of an 8-3 Toronto win. Estrada has lost four of his last five starts, including two straight. His downward trend is becoming an issue, as his ERA is 7.71 in that five-start stretch, quite a drop-off from the 2.95 ERA he posted in his first 20 outings of 2016. The pick: Tuesday’s win by the Rays clinched the season series against the Jays (Tampa leads 10-8), for the eighth time in the past nine years. However, let’s also note that the Rays need to win here to clinch this current three-game series but Tampa Bay is 0-6-1 in its last seven road series and has lost nine consecutive sets in AL parks. The Rays have earned their 61-83 record and the team's road record of 26-43 gives them the worst moneyline mark (minus-$1507) of any of MLB’s 30 teams. As for the Blue Jays, they look like a tired, hurting team these days. That makes the Under is an 8* play. |
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09-12-16 | Rams v. 49ers OVER 44 | Top | 0-28 | Loss | -106 | 216 h 19 m | Show |
LA Rams: The Rams finished 7-9 last year (third in the NFC West) but of course the big news heading into the 2016 season is that the team has returned to LA after a 21-year stay in St. Louis. The Rams' front defensive seven is as good as there is in the NFL and LA looks as if it owns an emerging superstar in second-year RB Todd Gurley. As a rookie he ran for at least 125 yards in each of his first four starts but a non-existent passing game allowed defenses to focus on Gurley, who still finished with 1106 yards and 10 TDs. The Rams made Cal’s QB Jared Goff the No. 1 overall pick in the 2016 draft but Case Keenum, who won three of his last four starts, gets the opening week start in this contest. SF 49ers: san Francisco finished fourth (last) in the NFC West in 2015 at 5-11. Chip Kelly was ousted in Philly but quickly found a home in the Bay Area and most felt that his offensive scheme would rejuvenate the career of QB Colin Kaepernick. However, like Goff, Kaepernick will be on the sidelines in Week 1. Of course, he’s received significant publicity the last two weeks for his controversial action of sitting during the national anthem but it shouldn’t be lost that Gabbert won the starting job based on superior play, while also winning over the locker room and head coach Chip Kelly. "The whole body of work from April until today," Kelly said when asked what impressed him about Gabbert. "He's a good fit for what we want to get accomplished, and I have a lot of confidence in what he can do for us offensively." The pick: One of the NFL’s most storied rivalries comes full circle when the Rams visit the 49ers in the second half of ESPN’s opening week MNF doubleheader. These teams were once the strength of the NFC West and now are both back in California and ready to renew a once torrid intra-state rivalry. Don’t expect too many fireworks, as the 49ers (303.8 YPG) and Rams (297.6 YPG) ranked 31st and 32nd, respectively, in total offense last season. San Francisco’s 14.9 PPG was the NFL-worst, while the Rams’ average of 17.5 PPG ranked 29th. That said, this over/under number is among the lowest in all of Week 1 (could close as THE lowest) and the play (a 10*) is on the Over. |
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09-11-16 | Patriots v. Cardinals UNDER 48 | Top | 23-21 | Win | 100 | 191 h 31 m | Show |
New England: Obviously, the biggest storyline of this year’s opening SNF game is third-year QB Jimmy Garoppolo making his first career NFL start. Garoppolo was selected in the second round out of Eastern Illinois in 2014 but has attempted a modest 31 regular-season passes since being selected, spending spent the bulk of the last two seasons learning in the ‘classroom’ and on the practice field, backing up future HOF Tom Brady. However, Brady's four-game suspension has thrust Garoppolo into the spotlight as he takes the reins for the Pats in tonight’s game against the Arizona Cardinals at the University of Phoenix Stadium. "There's so much going on right now," Garoppolo said. "Mentally, I'm straight on Arizona, but it is a phenomenal opportunity. This is why you play the game. You play to be in the game and play; you don't want to be the backup. The opportunity is here. I've just got to go take advantage of it." Arizona: Garoppolo’s opposite number will be Carson Palmer, who established franchise records for TD passes (35), yards (4,671) and QB rating (104.6) in leading the Cards to a 13-3 regular season record. After a closer-than-expected win over the Packers in the division round, the Cards and Palmer in particular, unraveled in the NFC conference championship game at Carolina in a 49-15 loss (he accounted for all six of the Cards’ turnovers / 4 INTs & 2 fumbles). The Cards are poised for another big year though, as Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and speedster John Brown give Palmer an outstanding receiving corps plus second-year RB David Johnson now opens the season as the starter after scoring 13 TDs as a rookie, playing superbly down the stretch when Chris Johnson suffered a broken leg. The Arizona defense finished fifth in total yards allowed, sixth in rushing yards allowed and eighth in passing yards allowed last season. The pick: New England is the only team in league history to win division titles in 12 of the past 13 seasons (all with Brady at the helm) and are favored to win the AFC East again in 2016, even with Brady missing the first four games. Arizona returns all of its key players on an offense that led the NFL with 408.3 YPG. Arizona (30.6 PPG) and New England (29.1 PPG) ranked second and third, respectively in scoring in 2015 but don’t expect a high scoring contest in this one. Belichick’s track record with time to prepare for an opponent (especially one not familiar with competing against the Pats) speaks for itself. Also, it should be expected that the Pats’ offense will play it much closer to the vest in Garoppolo’s first-ever start (with Gronk out and in primetime, no less!). The Under is a 10* play. |
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09-11-16 | Cubs v. Astros OVER 7.5 | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: Jon Lester won his 16th game of the season 2-0 over the Astros Friday night but the stage was set for a rubber match to this series on Sunday night with the Astros’ 2-1 win on Saturday afternoon. Houston’s win snapped a three-game skid and leaves them 75-67, 2 1/2 games back of the AL’s second wild card, a race which still includes SEVEN teams! The 90-51 Cubs own a huge 15-game lead over the Cards in the NL Central plus own a 6 1/2 game lead over the Nationals for the NL’s top record. The pitching matchup: Jake Arrieta (16-6, 2.84 ERA) looks for win No. 17 in tonight’s game, up against Houston’s Mike Fiers (10-6, 4.29 ERA). Arrieta took a tough loss last time out against San Francisco, allowing three runs (two earned) over six innings in a 3-2 setback. However, last year’s Cy Young winner has just two quality starts over his last five outings and has issued 17 walks in 31 2/3 innings over that span. Fiers hasn’t pitched all that well in his last two starts, allowing 15 hits over just 10 innings but has somehow allowed only five runs (just three have been earned). The pick: Arrieta will be making his first career appearance against the Astros and excluding the Cubs, Houston is the only team Arrieta has yet to face in his career. As for Fiers, he’s 3-1 with a 1.71 ERA in five games (four starts) all-time against the Cubs. However, expecting a third straight 2-0 or 2-1 game is a stretch. Note that prior to Arrieta’s last outing vs. the Giants, his previous four starts had averaged 13.25 RPG. As for Fiers? His last three starts have seen an average of 14.33 runs scored. The Over is a 10*! |
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09-10-16 | NC State v. East Carolina OVER 55.5 | Top | 30-33 | Win | 100 | 84 h 41 m | Show |
North Carolina State: Dave Doeren is in his fourth season at NC State and after a 3-9 first year, he’s led the Wolfpack to back-to-back bowl appearances in 2014 and 2015. NC State averaged 30.2 PPG in 2014 and last year upped that to 33.2 per game. He’s handed the offensive ‘keys’ here in 2016 to new offensive coordinator Eli Drinkwitz, who learned the ropes under Gus Malzahn and was the OC at Boise State last year. Arriving along with Drinkwitz from Boise St. was QB Ryan Finley, who is a graduate transfer. Finley finished 17-of-21 for 174 yards with two TDs in NC State’s 48-14 win over William and Mary, while senior RB Matt Dayes added 138 yards on the ground with two scores. Doeren has most of his own recruits in play now in Year 4 and just maybe, he can get improved play from a defense which has allowed 30.2, 27.0 and 25.8 PPG over the last three seasons. East Carolina: The Pirates have pretty much been bowl regulars with 15 appearances since 1991 and entered last year with eight bowl trips in the previous nine years. However, the team went just 5-7 and Ruffin McNeill was relieved of his duties, even though he had led East Carolina to four bowls in five years prior to last year’s losing record. Taking over in 2016 is Scottie Montgomery, who began his coaching career at his alma mater (Duke), where he served as the wide receivers coach for four seasons (2006–2009). Montgomery was then hired by the Pittsburgh Steelers in February of 2010 as the new wide receivers coach. He remained with the Steeler organization for three seasons. He returned to Duke as associate head coach and offensive coordinator in 2013 and Duke averaged 32.8, 32.4 and 31.5 PPG the last three season. East Carolina named Montgomery its head coach on December 13, 2015, replacing Ruffin McNeil. Montgomery got his head coaching career off to a rousing start as East Carolina blasted Western Carolina 52-7 in the season opener last week. The pick: ECU has a new QB in Philip Nelson, who made 16 starts in two seasons at Minnesota. Nelson was 28-for-32 passing and tossed TD passes to four different players (had five in all) while setting a career high with 398 yards. RB Anthony Scott carried 11 times for 120 yards, leading a rushing attack which gained 275 yards on 7.2 YPC. The Pirates' 688 total yards of offense was its most since a 70-41 victory over North Carolina in 2014 and as noted already. NC State sure looks as it has plenty of offensive talent as well. These schools last met when ECU went into Raleigh and posted a 42-28 victory back in 2014 and Wolpack RB Dayes told reporters: “We remember what they did to us, so we’re going to try to return the favor this weekend.” The Over is an 8* play. |
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09-09-16 | Louisville v. Syracuse UNDER 68 | Top | 62-28 | Loss | -110 | 67 h 29 m | Show |
Louisville: The Cardinals opened the season as the nation’s 19th-ranked team and its 70-14 win over outclassed Charlotte (coupled with a myriad of losses by other ranked teams) has the team at No. 13 in the latest AP poll. Sophomore QB Lamar Jackson delivered a record-setting season debut vs. Charlotte. He accounted for eight touchdowns (including six TD passes) in a mere one-half’s worth of work. Both of those marks tied ACC records and set new school records, prompting head coach Bobby Petrino to say afterward: "It was nice to get everybody involved. He read the coverage and delivered the ball, and let the players make the plays for you." Louisville racked up 663 yards of total offense (38 FDs), as 16 different players ended up catching a pass as the team posted its largest margin of victory in a season opener since 2007. Louisville also held Charlotte to 0-of-13 on third-down conversions, while the 49ers gained just 208 yards on 12 FDs. Syracuse: The Orange are coming off a 33-7 win over FCS team Colgate in the school’s first game under new coach Dino Babers. Babers began his head coaching career at Eastern Illinois (two playoff appearances in two seasons) before taking the Bowling Green job. He was 18-9 in two seasons, leading the Falcons to back-to-back bowl berths (did not coach in last year’s bowl game, after leaving for to take the Syracuse job). Syracuse QB Eric Dungey delivered 355 passing yards and two TDs against Colgate while combining with Zack Mahoney to complete 40-of-46 passes for the entire game. The pick: The Orange had 81 plays for 554 yards in total offense in beating Colgate last week but now step way up in class against a Louisville “D” which allowed just 208 yards on opening weekend. As for Louisville, the Cardinals now take to the road and off the the team’s 70-point outburst, could find the going much tougher against a Syracuse defense which returns its top seven tacklers from 2015. Dino Babers gave a call to arms of sorts during his weekly news conference Monday morning when asked about what he think of a crowd size just north of 30,000 vs. Colgate. “I thought it was kind of loud, and we've got room for another 18-19,000 people to get in there," Babers said. "I think it can get really loud. We need all the fans to show up in orange, and we need to see a sea of orange out there. Loud when Lamar and Louisville have the ball and quiet when we have the football. If we can get that, it'll be a heck of a home-field advantage, and we're going to need all the help we can." Syracuse has planned an 'Orange Out' for this Friday night game with Louisville, encouraging all fans to wear orange to the game. The under is a 10* play. |
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09-08-16 | Rays v. Yankees UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: The New York Yankees were swept in a three-game series at Tampa Bay in late July. Having already traded Aroldis Chapman to the Chicago Cubs, that sweep convinced GM Brian Cashman to go into sell mode and trade off three other veterans and go with younger players. The teams met again in mid-August and on August 12, Alex Rodriguez had an RBI double in his last game for the Yankees. A-Rod’s exit came a week after Gary Sanchez was promoted and a day before Aaron Judge and Tyler Austin joined the team, as each player homered in their first at-bats. Now, as the Yankees and Rays open a four-game series at Yankees Stadium, New York has remained in the race for both the division and wild-card. The Yankees are 4 1/2 games out of first place and 2 1/2 games behind the Baltimore Orioles for the final wild card spot. Meanwhile, The 59-79 Rays own a better AL record than only the Twins and the team’s moneyline mark of minus-$2536 ranks 29th among 30 MLB teams (again, Minnesota is the only team worse). The pitching matchup: Alex Cobb (0-0, 3.60 ERA) makes his second start since returning from Tommy John surgery for the Rays and veteran C.C. Sabathia (8-12, 4.20 ERA) takes the mound for the Yankees. Cobb’s first outing went well as he retired the final 10 hitters in his five-inning outing against Toronto while allowing two runs and four hits. "I was happy in the fact that I felt back to competitive nature on the mound," Cobb said. "It wasn't being cautious, wasn't thinking about my mechanics or injury possibilities. I was just out there, wanting to get outs and I felt the groove of the game again." Sabathia has had a poor season but has pitched well in recent outings, owning a 2.29 ERA in his last three starts plus has allowed three runs or less in five of his last six outings. The pick: Cobb’s last start in New York was back on September 11, 2014 but he owns a 1.93 ERA in 10 career starts against the Yankees. Sabathia is 14-14 with a 3.79 ERA in 40 all-time starts vs. Tampa Bay (teams are 20-20) but as a Yankee he is 7-13 with a 4.35 ERA in 29 games against the Rays. That doesn’t bode well but his current form is good (see above) and the Yankees have won four in a row and 10 of their last 14 games. Cobb’s a quality and pitcher and looked very good in his first start back and I see a low scoring contest. The under is a 10* play. |
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09-05-16 | Cardinals v. Pirates UNDER 8.5 | Top | 12-6 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: The Pirates have played in three consecutive NL wild card games, each season finishing behind the Cards, who have won the NL Central each of the last three years. Here in 2016, the Cubs have run away with the NL Central, so both the Cards and Pirates have been left to fight for one of two NL wild card spots. As of Labor Day morning, the 73-63 Giants own the top wild card spot with the 71-64 Cards holding down the second spot, 1 1/2 games back of San Fran. The 71-66 Mets are one game back of St. Louis and the 67-67 Pirates, in the throes of a season-worst six-game losing streak, sit 3 1/2 games back of the Cards. The two division rivals open a three-game series this afternoon at PNC Park and it’s fair to say that the Pirates are getting desperate. The pitching matchup: Adam Wainwright (9-8, 4.53 ERA) will open the series for the Cards with Pittsburgh handing the ball to rookie Chad Kuhl (3-2, 3.70 ERA), who will be making his 10th major league start. Wainwright has spent the season trying to prove he's still relevant. He opened the season poorly, going 2-3 with a 6.30 ERA in seven starts but then went 7-2 over a 12-start stretch (team was 9-3), while cutting more than two runs off his ERA (was down to 4.15 after a July 16th start). However, he enters this game winless in his last eight starts (he’s 0-3, the Cards are 4-4). Pittsburgh’s Kuhl is winless in his last three starts but he’s allowed three runs or less or in each of his last six starting assignments. The pick: Wainwright has a long history vs. the Pirates, going 14-7 with a 3.75 ERA in 28 all-time starts (Cards are 18-10), while Kuhl faces the Cards for the first time. I like what I’ve seen from Kuhl and believe he’s up to the challenge. The problem is, the Pirates have been shut out three times during their six-game slide and come off a three-game weekend series in Milwaukee in which they plated just four runs. The Under is a 10* play. |
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09-03-16 | New Mexico State v. UTEP UNDER 60 | Top | 22-38 | Push | 0 | 78 h 32 m | Show |
New Mexico State: Doug Martin begins his fourth season at Las Cruces and I guess last year's 3-9 record is a step in the right direction after consecutive 2-10 seasons (the Aggies were 1-11 the year before he took over). The Aggies have had just four winning seasons since 1967 (48 years) and last made a bowl appearance back in the 1960 Sun Bowl, giving them the longest bowl drought of any program. That said, all three of New Mexico State's wins in 2015 came in the team's last five games. Don't expect a six-win season from the Aggies but more do expect more than the three wins they had last year. The pick: I expect UTEP to be back 'bowling' in 2016 and while last year's team allowed 32.9 PPG on the season, UTEP allowed just 19.4 PPG in its five home games. UTEP gets seven home games this year (making my bowl prediction likely) and look for the Miners to keep a New Mexico State offense in check, as the Aggies will be without R LBarry Rose (hernia), who gained 1651 rushing yards last year (6.9 YPC) and 14 TDs. The Under is a 10* play. |
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09-03-16 | North Carolina v. Georgia OVER 56 | Top | 24-33 | Win | 100 | 75 h 3 m | Show |
North Carolina:The Tar Heels are off an 11-3 season and open at No. 22 in the AP poll. Head coach Larry Fedora enters his fifth season in Chapel Hill with seven starters returning on both sides of the ball. However, QB Marquise Williams has graduated (3072 passing yards with 24 TDs and 948 rushing yards with 13 TDs), after leading the Tar Heels to an ACC title-game appearance against Clemson plus North Carolina's first season of double digit wins since Mack Brown's final season (1997). The Tar Heels finished unbeaten in ACC play last season, winning 11 games in a row before falling to eventual national runner-up Clemson in the ACC championship game (also lost to Baylor in the Russell Athletic Bowl). The major question entering 2016 is can junior Mitch Trubisky QB adequately replace Williams? He completed 40-of-47 passes in 2015 and has thrown 11 TDs while spelling Williams the past two seasons. |
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09-02-16 | Ball State v. Georgia State UNDER 52.5 | Top | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 53 h 35 m | Show |
Ball State: Ball State opened 12-0 in 2008 (but finished 12-2) and as recently as 2013 was 10-3. However, the success of those teams seem far-removed from expectations here in 2016. Pete Lembo suffered through 5-7 and 3-9 seasons the last two years and resigned to become assistant head coach at Maryland. Mike Neu takes over and will be a head coach for the first time in his career (spent the last two seasons as the New Orleans Saints QB coach). The Cardinals return 15 starters but must play seven road games, not a good thing coming off going 1-5 SU on the road in 2015. Georgia State: Trent Miles took over in Atlanta with the Panthers going a combined 1-23 in 2013 and 2014 in his first two seasons. The Panthers opened 2-6 in 2015 but then went 4-0 SU and ATS down the stretch, earning the school's first-ever bowl berth. That game didn't go well, as Ga. St. lost to a 5-7 San Jose St team 27-16 in the first Cure Bowl. The Panthers return 16 starters but replacing QB Nick Arbuckle may be impossible. After all, he was the key ingredient in the school's four-game winning streak, finishing the year with 4,368 passing yards and a 28-to-12 TD-to INT ratio.
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08-31-16 | White Sox v. Tigers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: The Detroit Tigers have taken the first two games of their three-game series with the Chicago White Sox by scores of 4-3 and 8-4. The 71-61 Tigers sit 4 1/2 games out in the AL Central but just one game back for the AL's second wild card spot. As for Chicago, the season is over, as the White Sox are 12 games back in the same division and a 'healthy' 8 1/2 games out in the wild card chase. The pitching matchup:Chris Sale (15-7, 3.14 ERA) will take the mound for Chicago and Justin Verlander (14-7, 3.33 ERA) starts for Detroit. Sale has allowed three or less ERs in six of his last eight starts but has lost five his last six decisions (White Sox are 2-6 in the eight games). It seems like a lifetime ago that Sale was 9-0 with a 1.58 ERA after his first nine starts of 2016. In stark contrast, Verlander opened the season 2-3 with a 6.49 ERA after six starts but enters this contest on a run of nine consecutive quality starts. He's now 14-7 and his ERA has improved by more than three runs per outing! As noted above, while Sale has struggled to win lately, he's also allowed three ERs or less in six of his last eight starts. A look at Verlander's stat sheet and we find the last time the former Cy Young (and MVP) winner allowed more than ERs in game came back on June 26 (that's a stretch of 11 consecutive starts). The Under is a 10* play. |
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08-25-16 | Cowboys v. Seahawks UNDER 44 | Top | 17-27 | Push | 0 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: The 1-1 Dallas Cowboys will travel to Seattle to take on the 1-1 Seahawks Thursday night. Dallas rookie Dak Prescott (Miss. St.) has been outstanding in his first two appearances, completing 22 of 27 attempts (81.5%) for 338 yards with four TD passes and not a single INT. Romo saw his first action of the preseason in Week 2, completing four of five passes for 49 yards. Dallas’ expected featured RB, Alfred Morris (formerly of Washington), also saw his first action last week, rushing for 85 yards on 13 carries while scoring once. While the Cowboys have scored 65 points in their first two games, the Seahawks have just scored only two TDs in their first two games and both of those TDs have come in the fourth quarter. The pick: The Cowboys’ OL is the team’s strength and has made Prescott look good but Romo will be playing behind the first-team OL for more time this week and let’s see how Prescott fares later in the game. Will Dallas really risk Romo for two quarters or more (typical for Week 3’s ‘dress rehearsal’ game) with his injury history against a quality Seattle defense? Meanwhile, Seattle’s first-team offense and QB Wilson in particular, has really struggled. During the first two weeks so far, Seattle has scored just six points (two FGs) before the fourth quarter. The team’s two TD drives have been led by rookie QB Boykin, one coming on the game’s final play of regulation in Week 1. Carroll’s impressive preason ATS record of 25-15-3 makes it difficult to bet against the Seahawks but the under sure looks like a strong play. make it a top rated 10*. |
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08-24-16 | Giants v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: The Giants came out of the All Star break with MLB’s best record (57-33) but after last night’s 9-5 loss in LA to the Dodgers, the Giants find themselves two games back of the Dodgers for the NL West lead. San Francisco is now just three games inside the playoff ‘cut line,” which is what happens when a team goes a woeful 11-24 since the break, the worst record of any team in MLB! The Dodgers have caught the Giants, despite the fact that Clayton Kershaw has not taken the mound since June 26. What’s more, starting pitchers Brett Anderson (blister) and Scott Kazmir (neck inflammation) joined ace Clayton Kershaw (back) on the DL, yesterday. The pitching matchup: Johnny Cueto (14-3, 2.90 ERA) takes the mound for San Francisco, opposed by Rich Hill (9-3, 2.25 ERA). Hill has been on the disabled list himself (because of a lingering left middle finger blister), since being acquired from Oakland on August 1. Expectations are high for Hill, who makes his debut for the Dodgers, against the hated-Giants. He was cleared for this start after throwing 78 pitches in a simulated game at the Dodgers’ training complex in Arizona last Thursday. Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman is eager to see Hill face off against the team’s most bitter divisional rival. “What attracted us to Rich at the deadline was his high-end potential,” Friedman told reporters. “We felt that he was a guy who could pitch very well against the best lineups in baseball.” The Giants are 19-6 (plus-$982) in Cueto’s starts this season but Cueto has won just once, over his last seven starts. The pick: However, that win came in his last outing, when he allowed one run over seven innings of an 8-1 victory. In his previous start, Cueto left with a 7-3 lead, only to see the Giants’ bullpen allow five runs in the final two innings of an 8-7 loss. I expect both pitchers to be “on their games” in this one and that makes the under a 10* play. |
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08-21-16 | Mets v. Giants UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 21 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: The New York Mets will attempt to earn a split of their four-game series at San Francisco, after winning 9-5 Saturday afternoon at AT&T Park. The Giants had won 10-7 and 8-1 the first two games but a three-HR outburst led the way to yesterday’s victory. Yoenis Cespedes, who returned from a 15-day stint on the disabled list, had two of Saturday’s HRs for the Mets, with the first traveling 457 feet (one foot shy of the being the longest hit at AT&T Park this season!). The Giants will probably go without their hottest hitter and one of their best base-stealers in Angel Pagan on Sunday. He experienced tightness in his right groin while chasing a fly ball in Saturday's game and had to be pulled in the fourth inning. The pitching matchup: Noah Syndergaard (10-7, 2.76 ERA) goes for the Mets and Jeff Samardzija (10-8, 4.24 ERA) for the Giants. With injuries and struggles by a number of New York’s highly-touted starting rotation being the norm in 2016, Syndergaard has assumed the role of ace for this year’s pitching staff. However, Syndergaard has faced the Giants twice and lost both games, allowing eight ERs in 11 2/3 innings and his 6.17 ERA is his highest among teams against which he's started at least twice.Samardzija has struggled even more against the Mets than Syndergaard has against Giants. He has faced New York nine times in his career, three times as a starter, and has come away with an 0-3 record and 8.72 ERA. The record is Samardzija's worst against all opponents and the ERA is his second-highest among clubs against which he has started two more times. The pick: Noting all of the above, Syndrgaard owns an outstanding 2.60 road ERA this season (as well as a solid 1.12 WHIP) and Samardzija is off back-to-back solid outings (2.31 ERA). After three straight “overs” in this series, tonight’s Sunday finale figures to be a much lower scoring game. the Under is a 10* play. |
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08-20-16 | Panthers v. Titans UNDER 41.5 | Top | 26-16 | Loss | -110 | 74 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: The Titans are committed to becoming a more physical team and that was on full display in the team's 27-10 Week 1 win at home over the Chargers. DeMarco Murray had 93 rushing yards on only six attempts plus Heisman-winner and Alabama rookie Derrick Henry added 74 yards on 10 attempts. However, the Titans are not at home this week, rather they are playing on the road vs the defending NFC champion Carolina Panthers, coming off a 15-1 regular season. Establishing the run will not go as easily in this game. The Panthers lost their Week 1 game 22-19 at Baltimore and while the Patroits visit Carolina in Week 3, it’s hard to make a strong case for a look-ahead in the preseason. The pick: These two teams met in Week 10 of the 2015 regular season, with the Panthers coming in 8-0 and the home team Titans 2-6, on their way to a three-win year. The Panthers likely took the Panthers lightly, leading just 14-10 at the half. However, Carolina turned up the ‘heat’ in the second half, shutting the Titans out in a 27-10 victory. There’s no real urgency for Carolina to be trying to run up the score in a preseason game but off a loss and knowing the Titans ran for 288 yards last week, should get Carolina’s attention. Speaking of a potent ground game, Carolina owns one of the best, averaging 142.6 YPG on the ground in 2015 (2nd in the NFL), while tying for the NFL lead in rushing TDs (along with Buffalo and Kansas City) at 19. Expect a low scoring game and make the under an 8* play. |
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08-19-16 | Cardinals v. Chargers UNDER 40.5 | Top | 3-19 | Win | 100 | 57 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: San Diego lost 27-10 to Tennessee in Week 1, as the Titans did exactly what the team wanted to do. That was; establish a run-first, power-football offense behind DeMarco Murray and Alabama rookie Derrick Henry (last year’s Heisman winner). When all the dust had cleared, San Diego’s rush defense had been run over for 288 yards, as the Titans averaged 8.7 YPC. Murray had 93 yards in just six carries and Henry 74 yards on 10 attempts. Arizona lost its Week 1 game 31-10 but a closer looks reveals that Carson Palmer led the Cards to a FG in his lone series but his backups were horrible, combining to complete just 12 of 35 passes, while throwing two INTs. The game: Arizona’s defense was very effective in Week 1, holding Oakland to just 10 FDs and there is zero possibility that Arizona's weak running game will have anywhere near the kind of success that Tennessee had running against the San Diego defense. As for San Diego’s offense, Rivers’ three backups were unimpressive last week, combing to complete 13 of 29 passes with two INTs. The Cardinals have made back-to-back playoff appearances, only the second time that’s happened since the team mover from St. Louis to Phoenix. This team owns a talented roster and there is likely very little urgency in the team's preseason game plans. This one should be a ‘sleeper’ to watch. The under is a 10* play. |
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08-16-16 | Dodgers v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 | Top | 15-5 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: Chase Utley returns to Citizens Bank Park for the first time in an opposing uniform as the LA Dodgers visit the Philadelphia Phillies on Tuesday night in the opener of a three-game series. Utley spent his first 13 seasons with the Phillies until he was shipped to the Dodgers at last year's trade deadline and he’ll return to the City of Brotherly Love with a team that is now just a half-game back of the SF Giants in the NL West, as the slumping Giants fell to 9-19 since the All Star break with an 8-5 home loss Monday against the Pirates. The 56-63 Phillies have never really been in the playoff race at any point this season but bettors are well aware of Philadelphia, as the Phillies rank 4th-best in the moneyline standings at plus-$788 (note: the overpriced Dodgers may be 13 games over .500 but their moneyline mark is minus-$414). The pitching matchup: Rookie Kenta Maeda (11-7, 3.31 ERA) gets the call for LA and Vince Velasquez (8-4, 3.94 ERA) goes for Philadelphia. Maeda enters on a four-start unbeaten streak and looks looks to beat the Phillies and Velasquez for the second time in a span of eight days (allowed three runs over five innings in a 9-3 win on August 9). In contrast, Velasquez is winless in five starts since the All-Star break, including allowing nine runs on 11 hits (both season-highs) over just 4 2/3 innings in that August 9 meeting. However, he does own a 1.72 ERA in nine home starts here in 2016. The pick: Velasquez suffered a biceps strain that has caused him to miss several starts in June and July but he hasn’t missed any starts lately. As for LA, the Dodgers need Maeda to pitch deep into Tuesday's contest, after their last two starters failed to get through the second inning, taxing the bullpen for 15 1/3 innings Saturday and Sunday. Expect that to happen, as we note that Maeda is an impressive 7-2 with a 3.28 ERA in 11 road starts in 2016 (team is 8-3). Add in Velaquez's 1.72 home ERA this season and I can smell an under on Tuesday. Make it a top-rated 10* play. |
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08-15-16 | Pirates v. Giants OVER 7.5 | Top | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: The Pirates flew to San Francisco on Sunday night on the heels of taking two of three from the Giants' NL West rivals, the Los Angeles Dodgers. Pittsburgh opens this three-game series at AT&T Park in a four-way race for the NL’s second wild card spot. The Cards lead the Marlins by a half-game, the Pirates by 1 1/2 games and the Mets by 2 1/2. The Giants lead the Dodgers by just one game in the NL West, after Sunday’s stunning 8-7 loss to the Baltimore Orioles. The Giants took a 7-1 lead into the 7th inning with Cueto on the mound. He didn’t make it out of the 7th but SF still led 7-3 entering the 8th. However, the Orioles scored five times in the last two innings to come away with the victory. That game is indicative of the Giants’ struggles since the All Star break, which has seen them go a woeful 9-18. The pitching matchup: Ex-Giant Ryan Vogelsong (1-2, 2.67 ERA) starts for the Pirates and the newly-acquired (from Tampa Bay) Matt Moore (7-8, 3.99 ERA) gets the nod for the Giants. Vogelsong played seven seasons for the Giants and went 48-49 with a 3.93 ERA over two stints. That includes 2012 and 2014, when he started seven games and went 3-0 in the postseason as the club was winning a pair of World Series. Vogelsong has spent most of the season working out of the bullpen but entered the starting rotation following the trade of Francisco Liriano to the Toronto Blue Jays. He's allowed just one ER in 12 innings over two starts against Atlanta and San Diego, although the Pirates lost both games (5-2 to the Braves and 4-0 to the Padres).Moore is seeking his first win with the Giants after allowing a total of four runs in two starts covering 12 innings since being traded from Tampa Bay for infielder Matt Duffy. Moore has never faced the Pirates. The pick: Vogelsong last faced the Giants as a starter back on August 12, 2004, when he was the losing pitcher for the Pirates in a 7-0 home loss. He expects a warm welcome Monday at AT&T Park but I’m not convinced he’ll have all that much success. As for Moore, while this looks like it’s going to be first fully healthy season since 2012 (his rookie year), it’s hardly been a dominant one. This over/under just feels too low. 10* play on the Over. |
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08-13-16 | Mariners v. A's OVER 7.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -113 | 21 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up. The Mariners opened a three-game series vs. the A’s last night, entering on a six-game overall winning streak, as well as having won their last seven games in Oakland. However, “the going nowhere” A’s won 6-3, dropping Seattle 7 1/2 games back of Texas in the AL West plus leaving them two back in the race for the AL’s second wild card spot. The 52-64 A’s can only play a spoiler role, the rest of the way. The pitching matchup: Hisashi Iwakuma (13-7, 3.79 ERA) and Kendall Graveman (8-7, 4.29 ERA) square off on Saturday night. Both have become their respective teams’ ace here in 2016. Iwakuma leads Seattle in wins with 13 (no one else owns more than seven!) and makes his team-high 24th start Saturday, at least nine more starts than any other Mariner, including “King Felix.” The Mariners have used 12 starting pitchers this season. Graveman’s eight wins is tops on the A's and he makes his team-high 23rd start (that’s two more than Sonny Gray, who's on the DL, and at least six more than every other Oakland starter). Graveman is the only member of the A's original rotation who is on the active roster and the only one who hasn't spent time on the disabled list. The pick: Graveman is 7-1 with a 3.67 ERA in his past 13 starts (team is 10-3) and he's 4-0 with a 2.25 ERA in his past five home starts, all Oakland wins. However, after opening 1-4 through his first eight starts (team was 3-5), Iwakuma is 12-3 over his last 15 starts, earning a decision in each outing! He’s 7-4 with a .89 ERA in 12 career starts vs. Oakland (team is 7-5). Graveman has allowed 17 hits over 10 2/3 innings in two starts this year against Seattle (5.06 ERA) and this total is too low. 10* on the over. |
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08-13-16 | Cowboys v. Rams UNDER 35.5 | Top | 24-28 | Loss | -110 | 102 h 60 m | Show |
The set-up: The Rams left LA after the 1994 season for St. Louis but return to Southern California in 2016. This makes the team’s first appearance as the home team in LA, since. The opponent will be the Dallas Cowboys, once known as ‘America's Team.” Dallas was at one time but the team has missed the postseason 12 times in the 20 years since it’s last Super Bowl win (to cap the 1995 season). It’s taken 22 years but Jerry Jones has finally admitted he let his ego play a role in the end of the Dallas Cowboys' glory days. Jones and former coach Jimmy Johnson ended their relationship after consecutive Super Bowl wins in 1992 and 1993. Neither man had accepted responsibility for the demise of their relationship. "I lost my tolerance for a lot of things," Jones recently told KTCK-AM 1310. "I probably should have had a little more tolerance with Jimmy Johnson. Seriously." Barry Switzer replaced Johnson and took the Cowboys to the NFC Championship Game in 1994 and a Super Bowl in 1995. They won another division title in 1996 but Switzer resigned after the 1997 season. Since then, Jones has hired five coaches who have delivered just two playoff wins. The game: The NFL returning to LA is a big deal but while the fans should be excited, don’t expect much from either team. QB Tony Romo is coming off another injury-plagued season and he’ll see limited action. Also, backup QB Kellen Moore has been lost to a season-ending ankle injury, leaving Dallas with rookie Dak Prescott (Ole Miss) and second-year player Jameill Showers (UTEP). LA’s QB position is no better, with top-pick Jared Goff likely to see limited action. He’s backed up by the brutal Case Keenum and inexperienced QBs Mannion and Thompson. The pick: Jason Garrett owns one of the NFL’s worst ATS preseason record (6-15), so I want no part of Dallas. However, the under is a safer play. Make it an 8* play . |
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08-12-16 | Dolphins v. Giants UNDER 36.5 | Top | 27-10 | Loss | -107 | 78 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: The Giants will open the 2016 season without Tom Coughlin as their head coach for the first time since 2003. Former OC Bem McAdoo is the new coach and he inherits a team looking to get back to the playoffs for the first time since the Giants won the Super Bowl in the 2011 season. QB Eli Manning and WR Odell Beckham Jr. remain the key players for the Giants. Miami can feel the Giants’ pain, as the Dolphins haven’t been to the playoff since 2008 and haven’t won a playoff game since the 2000 postseason. Miami will open 2016 with yet another new head coach, Adam Gase, who despite being the OC of a Chicago Bears team which was just 6-10 last year (finished 21st in total offense), was one of the or the ‘hottest’ coaching candidates last off season. The game: These two teams have met six times in the preseason in their histories with the Dolphins winning all six games (four of the six have been decided by six points or less). Both head coaches are making their respective debuts but for the Giants, McAdoo’s debut will come at home. The pressure will surely be on him to make a good “first impression.” I noted that Gase got the head coaching job at Miami despite coming off a 6-10 season as Chicago’s OC in the set up but let me add this here. How many guys (meaning McAdoo) get promoted from OC to head coach after the team went 6-10 SU in each of the two seasons in which he was coordinator? As for Gase, he takes over a Miami team which was full of dissension on both sides of the ball in 2015. The recent coaching regimes weren’t able to figure things out in “South Beach” and it stands to reason that Gase and his staff will need time. The pick: My lean is to the Giants but what I like more here is the under, as both teams will struggle to put points on the board in this first contest, one in which the regulars will receive limited reps. top-rtaed 10* play on the UNDER! |
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08-10-16 | Diamondbacks v. Mets OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -107 | 18 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: The Mets lost 5-3 to the D’backs last night, failing to follow up Sunday’s win over the Tigers. New York has not won consecutive games since July 7-8. The team is 10-17 since its last "winning streak" and the 57-55 Mets are now 2 1/2 games behind the Miami Marlins in the race for the National League's second wild card spot. Meanwhile, the 46-66 D’backs are dead-last in the NL West (17 1/2 games out) and only the Braves owns a worse record among all NL teams. Good news for Arizona was the return of Zack Greinke came off the DL on Tuesday (1st appearance since June 28), as he posted a quality start (6 IP / 5 hits / 3 ERs) in earning his 11th win. The pitching matchup: Arizona’s Robbie Ray (5-11, 4.83 ERA) will square off against New York’s ageless Bartolo Colon (10-6, 3.46 ERA). The 43-year-old Colon earned his 10th victory in his most recent start last Thursday, allowing one run over 6 2/3 innings as the Mets beat the New York Yankees 4-1. He now owns four seasons of double-digit wins since turning 40. The only other pitchers with many such seasons are Phil Niekro (7), Jamie Moyer and Jack Quinn (6), and Randy Johnson and Nolan Ryan (4). In this start vs. Arizona, he is looking to become the 17th player to beat all 30 teams (note: he has made just two career starts against the Diamondbacks, who began play in 1998). Ray comes into this start battling a rough stretch with losses in three straight starts. He was lit up for six runs (five earned) on eight hits and a pair of walks in six innings against Washington on August 2. His ERA over those three losses is 7.02. The pick: New York’s lineup should have little trouble against Ray and while Colon continues to defy his age, I don’t see him shutting down the D’backs, either. 10* play on the over. |
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08-07-16 | Red Sox v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: LA Dodgers pitching ace Clayton Kershaw (herniated disk) went on the 60-day disabled list earlier this week and isn't expected back until September. Bud Norris, who was recently acquired from the Atlanta Braves in a trade, was put on the 15-day DL on Saturday with a mild back strain. The rotation took another hit Saturday before the team’s game with Boston, when newly acquired starter Rich Hill was bumped from his scheduled start Sunday when "remnants" of another blister were found on his middle pitching finger after the left-hander played catch Friday, manager Dave Roberts said. However, the Dodgers took the field and bested the Red Sox 3-0, after losing 9-0 on Friday night. The Red Sox are two games back of first-place in the AL East and just a half-game out in the wild card race. The Dodgers have closed to within two games of the Giants in the NL West and own the NL’s No. 1 wild card spot, four games clear of missing out on the postseason. The pitching matchup: David Price (9-7, 4.30 ERA) gets the start for Boston and replacing Rich Hill for LA will be Brandon McCarthy (2-2, 2.76 ERA). Price was cruising through seven innings in his last outing (no runs thru seven innings) but then surrendered a leadoff HR in the eighth plus allowed three more runs in that inning without recording an out. The former Cy Young Award winner is just 9-7 (4.30 ERA) on the season and the Red Sox are now 11-12 in his 2016 starts, losing $937 at $100 per game (NOT what the team expected). McCarthy, coming off Tommy John surgery, didn’t return to the mound in 2016 until July 3 and has made a modest six starts. He’s taken the loss in each of his last two, failing to record an out in the fifth inning of either outing. The pick: The Red Sox rank first in all of MLB in runs scored (5.44 per), batting average (.284) and OPS (.817). Coming off a shutout, they should be dangerous. As for Price, his “consistent inconsistency” is giving Boston management fits. The over/under number is too low. 10* play on the over. |
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08-06-16 | Edmonton v. Ottawa OVER 58 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 105 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: The 2-3 Edmonton Eskimos sit fourth of five teams in the West as they get set to visit the Ottawa Redblacks on Saturday (Ottawa is 3-2-1, just behind 4-2 Toronto in the four-team East). It’s the second meeting of the season between the two Grey Cup finalists from 2015. Ottawa opened the 2016 season with a 45-37 OT win at Commonwealth Stadium, running up 590 yards of net offense in the process. However, let’s not ignore the fact that the Eskimos have won the four previous regular-season meetings between the two clubs since the Redblacks came into being back in 2014, plus won last November’s Grey Cup. A closer look at Ottawa’s record reveals a 3-0-1 start in 2016 but the team enters this contest off back-to-back losses, falling in close ones 30-29 and 23-20. The pick: Like the first meeting, expect a high scoring game. Edmonton QB Mike Reilly is looking for his ninth consecutive game with 300 passing yards. He’s averaged 368 yards and thrown for 18 TDs in a stretch that’s reached back to October of 2015 (note: he’s thrown at least one TDP in his last 11 games!). The problem for Edmonton is that its defense has allowed 61 points over the last six quarters, in dropping consecutive games to teams playing with backup QBs. Those backups combined for 695 yards, four TDs and zero INTs, while completing 80.3 percent. Ottawa QBs Burris and Harris combined to complete 40 of 50 passes in the first meeting with Edmonton, passing for 543 yards and four TDs. Again, expect another high scoring game. 10* play on the over. |
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08-06-16 | Indians v. Yankees OVER 8 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: The small-market Indians are the team in first-place and Cleveland is also the team which made some trade deadline moves, while the biggest market team of all (NY Yankees), moved quality veterans with a an eye to the future. However, it was the the rebuilding Yankees who struck first in this three-game series, jumping out to leads of 6-0 and 11-4, before walking a way with a 13-7 victory on Friday. The win give the Yanks a 55-54 record but still leaves them 7 1/2 games out in the AL East, as well as 5 1/2 games out in the wild card race. The Indians remain atop the NL Central but Cleveland has lost four of five games (outscored 50-32) and its lead has been to cut to two games over the Tigers. The pitching matchup: Corey Kluber (10-8, 3.27 ERA) takes on CC Sabathia (6-8, 4.15 ERA) in a meeting of former Cy Young winners. Kluber won recently (in 2014), while C.C’s win was back in 2007. Kluber threw seven shutout innings in his last start, an 8-0 victory over the Oakland Athletics. He has now allowed one run or fewer in three of his last four starts, a stretch in which he's lowered his ERA from 3.79 to a season-low 3.27. In contrast, Sabathia is hoping to snap out of a prolonged slump. He has failed to deliver a quality start in seven of his last eight outings, a stretch in which he's gone 1-4 with a 6.85 ERA that has seen his overall ERA has increase from 2.20 to 4.15. The pick: The Indians have stayed at the top of the AL Central for most of the season because of its pitching but as noted, Cleveland has allowed 50 runs over its last five games, with its starters having allowed 30 runs in just 17 1/3 innings! Cleveland’s staff has been solid for most of this season plus Kluber comes in pitching well (1.24 ERA over his last four) but the Yankees lineup has been unfazed by the Indians in 2016, averaging 7.6 RPG in five meetings. Remembering that Sabathia has given up five runs or more in six of his last eight starts and that the Indians rank 4th in runs scored (5.02 per game), the play here is on the over (10*). |
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07-29-16 | White Sox v. Twins UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 0 m | Show |
The Chicago White Sox will visit Minnesota Twins for the opener of a three-game set at Target Field Friday night. Recent meetings in Minnesota have been low-scoring affairs, and I think that will be the case tonight as well. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Pitching - The White Sox hand the ball to Jose Quintana (8-8, 2.97 ERA) who has been excellent all season long. He tossed 6 2/3 shutout innings against the Tigers his last start and he has held three of his last four opponents to one run or fewer. The Twins counter with Ricky Nolasco (4-8, 5.40) who had allowed three earned runs or fewer in each of his three starts in July before getting lit up at Fenway Park his last turn. 2. The White Sox's Bats - Chicago has mustered only one run in each of its last two games and the team is averaging a lowly 3.94 runs per game on the road this season. 3. X-Factor - Quintana has posted a 2.70 ERA in three meetings with Minnesota this season. Selection: This is a play on CHW@MIN to go UNDER the total (10*) |
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07-28-16 | Winnipeg v. Edmonton OVER 56 | Top | 30-23 | Loss | -106 | 21 h 53 m | Show |
The Edmonton Eskimos haven't looked much like defending Grey Cup champions. Last week they led Hamilton by 18 points at home, but the Ticats scored 31 points in the second half to come from behind and win 37-31. Edmonton will host Winnipeg this Thursday, and I expect to see another high scoring affair. Here are my keys to the game: Selection: This is a play on the Bombers@Eskies to go OVER the total (8*) |
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07-26-16 | Padres v. Blue Jays UNDER 9.5 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 10 m | Show |
The Blue Jays defeated San Diego by a score of 4-2 last night, and we might see another pitcher's duel here in Game 2. Marcus Stroman appears to have his swagger back, and he faces a light hitting Padres lineup. We see an inflated number, and my money is on the total to go under. Selection: This is a play on the Padres@Jays to go UNDER the total (10*) |
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07-23-16 | Braves v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
The Atlanta Braves will take on Colorado Rockies for the third contest of a three-game set Saturday night. None of the previous games in the series have been fairly low-scoring affairs, but I think the crowd at Coors Field will see plenty of action over home plate in this contest. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Pitching - The Braves hand the ball to Matt Wisler (4-9, 4.67 ERA) who's been knocked around for 12 runs (11 earned) in 10 innings through his past two starts, both on the road. Wisler has a 5.23 ERA in eight appearances (seven starts) outside of Atlanta for the season and is likely to struggle at the most hitter-friendly park in baseball. The Rockies counter with 26 year old rookie Tyler Anderson (2-3, 3.43) who will make his eighth start in the big leagues. Anderson is off his worst start of his brief career when he conceded four runs on five hits and three walks in 6 1/3 innings against the Rays here in the Rocky Mountains. 2. Mark Wegner Behind Home Plate - The over is 17-5-2 in Wegner's last 24 games calling the shots and 5-2 in his last seven games involving Colorado. 3. X-Factor - Colorado's bullpen has a 4.97 ERA for the season and Atlanta's is only slightly better with a 4.30 mark. Selection: This is a play on ATL@COL to go over the total (10*) |
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07-22-16 | Indians v. Orioles OVER 9 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -120 | 17 h 8 m | Show |
The Cleveland Indians started the week by scoring a total of 22 runs while taking two of three from their division rival Kansas City. The O's have struggled to score runs since the All Star break but put four on the board in a 4-1 win against the Yankees yesterday. I think we'll see a high-scoring contest between the Birds and the Tribe Friday night. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Pitching - The Orioles hand the ball to Dylan Bundy (2-2, 3.70) who'll make his second career start in the majors. His first was a forgettable one when he conceded four runs on five hits and three walks with three homers in just 3 1/3 innings at Tampa Bay. Cleveland counters with Trevor Bauer (7-3, 3.36) who's struggled in his two most recent starts, surrendering a total of nine runs (eight earned) on 15 hits and five walks in 11 2/3 innings of work. 2. The Orioles Are Getting Healthy - Baltimore has been hit hard with injuries and illness lately, but Manny Machado who has been knocked out by a virus was back in the lineup Thursday and Mark Wieter and Adam Jones could be back for tonight's contest. 3. X-Factor - The over is 8-2-2 in the Indians last 12 overall. Selection: This is a play on CLE@BAL to go OVER the total (10*) |
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07-08-16 | Calgary v. Ottawa UNDER 53 | Top | 26-26 | Win | 100 | 90 h 56 m | Show |
The Ottawa Red Blacks went all the way to the Grey Cup last season, and they have a chance to start this season 3-0 if they can get past Calgary in their home opener tonight. Ottawa has the league's highest scoring offense, but I still think tonight's total is a little inflated given that these two teams are both fantastic defensively. |
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07-05-16 | Mariners v. Astros UNDER 8 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 19 h 18 m | Show |
Runs came at a premium when the Houston Astros won the opener of a three-game series with the Seattle Mariners 2-1 yesterday. I think we'll see another low-scoring affair Tuesday night as the series at Minute Maid Park continues. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Pitching - The Astros hand the ball to Dallas Keuchel (5-9, 5.13). The reigning American League Cy Young winner has bounced back from a terrible start to the year and has held opponents to seven earned runs over 19 1/3 innings in his last three starts. Keuchel's season ERA is more than one run lower home in Houston than on the road. The Mariners counter with Taijuan Walker (4-6, 3.29 ERA). He missed a start due to a foot injury but came back strong to hold the Orioles to one run on four hits in 6 1/3 innings of a 5-3 win his last outing. Walker has posted a 2.00 ERA in two meetings with Houston this year. 2. Batter Versus Pitcher - Taijuan Walker has posted a 3.98 ERA in 10 career starts against the Astros, but he has done well against several of their current big bats. Carlos Correa (2-for-9), George Springer (3-for-13) and Luis Valbuena (2-for-11) have all struggled to solve the right-hander. 3. X-Factor - The under is 9-3-1 in the Astros' last 13 home games vs. a right-handed starter and 5-1 in their last six home games overall. Selection: This is a play on SEA@HOU to go UNDER the total (10*) |
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06-30-16 | Ottawa v. Montreal UNDER 54 | Top | 28-13 | Win | 100 | 74 h 12 m | Show |
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06-25-16 | United States v. Colombia UNDER 3 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 37 h 52 m | Show |
USA and Colombia will battle for third place in Copa America Centenario at University of Phoenix Stadium on Saturday night. Colombia defeated the United States 2-0 in the tournament opener, and I think we'll see tonight's game stay under the total as well. Here are my keys to the game: 1. US Tactics - The USMNT coach Jurgen Klinsmann was not happy with his teams defensive performance in the 4-0 loss against Argentina in the semifinals. "At the end of the day we were too nice [against Argentina], it took us a while to get into the game physically. When you play these top teams you have got to be physically on the edge." Expect to see a tight and gritty American defense tonight, and the Colombians are never scared to get physical. 2. Previous Meeting - None of Colombia's goals in the tournament opener came in open play as it scored from a corner and a spot kick, Goal-scoring opportunities will not come easy for either team tonight either. 3. X-Factor - Colombia has been shut out in back-to-back games. Selection: This is a play on USMNT/COL to go UNDER the total (10*) |
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06-24-16 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 10-9 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
full analysis soon |
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06-24-16 | Montreal v. Winnipeg UNDER 49.5 | Top | 22-14 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
The Winnipeg Blue Bombers will host the Montreal Alouettes in a Week 1 match-up between two teams that really struggled last year. Montreal finished last in the East, while the Bombers were just 5-13 in the West. Neither team has a lot of offensive fire power, and I think we could see a low scoring affair. Selection: This is a play on MTL@WPG to go UNDER the total (10*) |
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06-18-16 | Angels v. A's OVER 9 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 57 m | Show |
Oakland edged out the Angels in with a walkoff hit in the bottom on the ninth in a 3-2 win last night, but I expect more scoring this afternoon. The Athletics are dead last in the AL West, and they've won just three of their last 13 overall. My money is on the OVER. Selection: This is a play on LAA@OAK to go OVER the total (10*) |
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06-17-16 | Italy v. Sweden UNDER 2 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 103 | 59 h 40 m | Show |
Italy is sitting top of Group E after the first round of games as it picked up an impressive 2-0 victory against Belgium in its tournament opener. Sweden is coming off a draw against the Republic of Ireland, and I think both teams will come out with a cautious "don't lose" approach which should suggest a low-scoring game. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Italy's Defense - Italy has always been recognized as one of the best nations in the world to set up a team defensively. This team is no different and Antonio Conte's men have held a clean sheet in each of their last three games. 2. Sweden's Offense - Sweden failed to register a single shot on goal in its 1-1 draw against the Republic of Ireland. Yes, you read that right. Sweden's equalizing goal was the result of a failed headed clearance of a cross from an Ireland defender. 3. X-Factor - Italy has never scored more than two goals in its 34 games at European Championship finals. An Italian clean sheet and this bet is a lock. Selection: This is a play on Italy/Sweden to go UNDER the total (8*) |
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06-16-16 | Mariners v. Rays UNDER 7.5 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
The Mariners played a 13 inning marathon in Tampa last night, losing by a score of 3-2. I think we'll see another pitcher's duel at "The Trop" here on Thursday afternoon. My money is on the under in Game 3 in St. Petersburg. |
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06-15-16 | Marlins v. Padres OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 18 h 31 m | Show |
The Marlins scored five times in the top of the first inning in last night's win at PETCO, and they may get off to another fast start here in the series finale Wednesday afternoon. The Padres turn to a struggling pitcher, and their defense hasn't done them any favors either. San Diego's fielding percentage of .981 ranks 28th in the major leagues. |
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06-12-16 | A's v. Reds OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
The Reds have defeated Oakland by an identical 2-1 score in each of the first two games in this series. With both teams turning to the back end of the rotation in the series finale, I expect to see a lot more offense today. My money is on the over for the 1st five innings of play. 2. Fielding - The Reds rank dead last in the majors with a fielding percentage of .978. Oakland isn't much better, ranking 25th overall. |
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06-10-16 | Warriors v. Cavs UNDER 206.5 | Top | 108-97 | Win | 100 | 20 h 46 m | Show |
The Cavs showed almost no signs of life in back-to-back blowout losses at Golden State, but the NBA Finals got interesting when Cleveland came back to win 120-90 in Game 3. All the momentum is now with the Cavs heading into Game 4, and I expect the Warriors to struggle once again at Quicken Loans Arena. Selection: This is a play on GS@CLE to go UNDER 1st Half (10*) |
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06-08-16 | Cardinals v. Reds OVER 9 | Top | 12-7 | Win | 100 | 20 h 27 m | Show |
The Cincinnati Reds failed to continued their recent surge with a 7-6 win in the opener of a three-game series against the St. Louis Cardinals on Tuesday. Their bats have been on fire lately, and I think we'll see another action-packed contest involving the Reds tonight. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Pitching - The Reds hand the ball to the struggling Alfredo Simon (2-5, 8.94). He was lucky to receive the decision last start despite surrendering four runs on five hits with three home runs in seven innings of an 11-4 win at Colorado. The Cardinals counter with Jaime García (4-5, 3.48 ERA). The southpaw has posted a 3.50 ERA over 19 career appearances (17 starts) against the Reds, and I don't like his chances of improving on that number tonight. 2. Cincinnati's Bats - The Reds have scored a total of 48 runs in their past five games. Their .614 slugging percentage here in June is the best mark in the majors for the month by quite some distance. 3. X-Factor - Billy Hamilton is on fire with three three-hit games in his last eight appearances. Selection: This is a play on STL@CIN to go OVER the total (10*) |
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06-07-16 | Cardinals v. Reds OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 104 | 19 h 46 m | Show |
The St. Louis Cardinals wrapped up the weekend with a pair of wins against the Giants in which they outscored their opponent 13-7. The Cincinnati Reds have heated up in recent games, and I think we'll see plenty of action over home plate early in Tuesday's match-up. |
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06-06-16 | Braves v. Padres OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
The Atlanta Braves are tied with the Minnesota Twins for the worst record in baseball this season. Runs have not come easy for the team, but the pitching match-up in Monday's series-opener against the San Diego Padres combined with a low number makes me believe we'll see enough runs to push this game over the total. |
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06-05-16 | Cavs v. Warriors UNDER 207.5 | Top | 77-110 | Win | 100 | 45 h 5 m | Show |
The Cavaliers looked totally out-classed in Game 1 of the NBA Finals in Oakland. They scored just 43 points in the first half, and went on to lose 104-89. Perhaps the biggest concern for the Cavs is that Steph Curry and Klay Thompson scored a combined 20 points, and the Warriors role players badly out-played Cleveland's starting five. After watching the Cavs shoot 38.1 percent from the field in Game 1, I don't think much will change in Game 2. Selection: This is a play on CLE@GS to go UNDER the total first half (10*) |
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06-05-16 | Nationals v. Reds OVER 9 | Top | 10-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
The Cincinnati Reds have among the worst records in baseball this season, but they've made some noise lately entering Sunday riding a four-game winning streak. The Washington Nationals can't be happy at all about the prospect of getting swept by the Reds, and I think we'll see plenty of action over home plate today. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Pitching - The Nats hand the ball to Tanner Roark (4-4, 2.70 ERA) who has pitched pretty well lately. The right-hander has however served up home runs in four straight outings, and Brandon Phillips is 3-for-6 with a homer off Roark in previous meetings. Cincinnati counters with Jon Moscot (0-3, 7.13) who will make his second start since returning from the disabled list. Moscot was lit up for seven runs on eight hits with four (!) home runs in just two innings of a 17-4 loss at Coors Field in his comeback. 2. Trends - The over is 5-2-1 in the Nats last eight overall and 6-1-2 in the Reds'. Over is 17-5-4 in Cincy's last 26 games following a win and 6-1 in Washington's last seven following a loss. 3. X-Factor - Cincinnati has scored 31 runs over its four-game win streak. Selection: This is a play on WAS@CIN 1st Half OVER (10*) |
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05-29-16 | Reds v. Brewers OVER 9 | Top | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 4 h 57 m | Show |
The Cincinnati Reds ended an 11-game skid with a 7-6 win against the Milwaukee Brewers on Saturday. Each of the last four meetings have gone over the total and I think we'll see the two teams run up the score early in Sunday's contest. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Pitching - The Reds hand the ball to Brandon Finnegan (1-3, 3.97 ERA) who surrendered five runs (three earned) on seven hits with three home runs in five innings of a 13-7 loss against Milwaukee on May 7 without factoring in the decision. The Brewers counter with Jimmy Nelson (4-3, 2.92 ERA) who tossed opposite Finnegan in that contest. Nelson lasted only five innings as well over which he was torched for six runs (five earned) on eight hits. 2. Poor Fielding - Only the Cardinals have committed more errors than the Reds' 41 this season. Milwaukee is also among the 10 worst in that category with 31 errors in 49 games. 3. X-Factor - Jay Bruce was 2-for-5 in Saturday's contest and he's 7-for-17 with three doubles and a pair of homers off Nelson. Selection: This is a play on CIN@MIL 1st 5 innings to go OVER the total (8*) |
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05-28-16 | Reds v. Brewers OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
The Brewers won Game 1 of this home series versus Cincinnati by a score of 9-5. I expect to see another slugfest Saturday, as two struggling pitchers take the mound in Game 2. My money is on the over for the first five innings of play. Selection: This is a play on the Reds@Brewers 1st 5 innings OVER (8*) |
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05-27-16 | Cavs v. Raptors UNDER 197 | Top | 113-87 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals goes Friday, and so far the home team has dominated in all five games in this series. The Raptors are facing elimination, and they've shown already this post-season that they play their best basketball when their backs are against the wall. We should see a strong effort on defense from both teams, and I expect a low scoring 1st half. Selection: This is a play on the Cavs@Raptors to go UNDER the total firs half (10*) |
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05-24-16 | Warriors v. Thunder UNDER 222 | Top | 94-118 | Win | 100 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
The Oklahoma City Thunder took command of the Western Conference Finals series with a 133-105 win on Sunday. That was the first game of the series to go over the total, and I don't think we'll see quite as many points in tonight's Game 4. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Situational - The Warriors have been good at bouncing back from poor defensive outings. The under is 6-1-1 in Golden State's last eight after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game and 12-5 in its last 17 when its opponent scores 100 points or more in the previous game. 2. Unsustainable Numbers - The Thunder shot 50 percent from the field and went 33-of-37 from the foul-line in Game 3. We do often see teams follow such a performance with a much poorer one and that will likely be the case tonight too. 3. X-Factor - The Warriors Draymond Green, one of the league's best defenders, escaped a suspension for a flagrant foul for kicking Steven Adams in the groin and will be suited up for tonight's contest. Selection: This is a play on GSW@OKC to go UNDER the total in the first half (10*) |
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05-21-16 | Cavs v. Raptors OVER 198.5 | Top | 84-99 | Loss | -102 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
full analysis soon The Toronto Raptors had no answer in Cleveland, allowing the Cavs to jump out to big leads in each of the first two games of this series. The Raptors actually played well in the first half of Game 2, until they collapsed in the final two minutes of the half. I expect to see a better effort offensively from the Raptors in the first half of Game 3. Selection: This is a play on Toronto@Cleveland first half to go OVER the total (10* |
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05-21-16 | Cubs v. Giants OVER 7 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
The Cubs handed the Giants a lopsided loss in the series opener in San Francisco last night, and I think we could see another slugfest here in Game 2 Saturday. Chicago ranks third in the major leagues in runs scored, and those big bats should be able to take advantage of a struggling San Francisco starter. Selection: This is a play on the Cubs@Giants to go OVER the total (10*) |
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05-20-16 | Penguins v. Lightning OVER 5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 20 h 5 m | Show |
The Pittsburgh Penguins lost the opener of this Eastern Conference Final series against the Tampa Bay Lightning but stole back home-ice advantage with a 4-2 win here at Amalie Arena on Wednesday. I think we'll see another high-scoring encounter tonight in Game 4. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Tampa Bay's Goaltending Woes - Ben Bishop remains out with a leg injury and although Andrei Vasilevskiy has filled in admirably, he is on Bishop. Vasilevskiy has given up a total of seven goals in his two starts and has not had much help from the skaters having to face 89 shots in these contests. 2. Previous Meetings - The over is 18-5-3 in the last 26 meetings and each of the last four meetings at Amalie Arena have gone over the total. 3. X-Factor - Sidney Crosby had gone eight games without finding the net but have now tallied in each of the last two games. Once the superstar gets going there's no stopping him. Selection: This is a play on PIT@TB to go OVER the total (10*) |
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05-19-16 | Raptors v. Cavs OVER 198 | Top | 89-108 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 14 m | Show |
The Toronto Raptors had no answer for Cleveland in Game 1, allowing the Cavs to jump out to a 66-44 lead at halftime. With the game already out of hand, we saw a low scoring second half, and the game failed to reach the total (opening line). I expect a bit better of a performance from the Raptors tonight, and we should see a slightly higher scoring game. My money is on the over. Selection: This is a play on Toronto@Cleveland to go OVER the total (10*) |
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