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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-09-18 | Pacers v. Celtics OVER 204.5 | Top | 97-91 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: The Boston Celtics held onto the top spot in the Eastern Conference with an overtime win in Washington on Thursday and return home tonight to begin a three-game homestand leading up to the All-Star break.The 40-16 Celtics lead the Raptors by only one game but while they lead the Cavs by 7 1/2, almost all agree that the moves Cleveland made on Thursday will rejuvenate LBJ and make the Cavs a feared opponent for either Boston or Toronto. The first team up for Boston in its three-game hoemstand will be the 30-25 Indiana Pacers, who lost 111-102 to the Wizards at home on Monday and then they were given some extra rest when Wednesday's visit to New Orleans resulted in a postponement due to a leaky roof at the Smoothie King Center. Indiana: Due to the postponement and the upcoming All-Star break, Indiana will play a total of just four games in 17 days. The Pacers chose to sit out Thursday's trade deadline and will move forward built around All-Star guard Victor Oladipo (24.0-5.2-4.1), who missed Monday's loss to Washington due to an illness. Bojan Bogdanovich (13.6) did his best to fill the void with a season-high 29 points while making five three-pointers, and backup Joe Young (3.7) matched him from beyond the arc en route to 17 points, his second-best output this season. Indiana remains without starting point PG Darren Collison (12.8 & 5.3 APG) , who is suffering with a knee injury. Boston: Kyrie Irving made three free throws in the closing seconds of regulation to force OT and then scored seven points in the extra session to help Boston maintain a one-game lead over Toronto in the East with Thursday's OT triumph against the Wizards. Irving (24.8 & 5.0 APG) finished with 28 points and Jaylen Brown (14.2 & 5.4) added 16 for the Celtics, who swept a 3-0 homestand last week and have won five of their last six overall. Boston also stood pat at the deadline but it was able to introduce one of its recent additions in center Greg Monroe, who had five points and six rebounds in 20 minutes at Washington in his team debut. The pick: While the Pacers should be fresh (they haven't played since Monday and were relaxing in their Boston hotel Thursday night), the Celtics started their game in Washington at 8 p.m. for national television and then had to go to overtime. The Celtics defeated the Pacers 108-98 without Oladipo in November and then won 112-111 in a December rematch when Terry Rozier stole an ill-advised pass from Bogdanovic and went in for a go-ahead dunk with 1.5 seconds left.Both games were in Indiana and Boston will take a five-game winning streak in the series into tonight's game. I don't want to buck the Celtics here but the dynamics of a well-rested Indiana team and a Boston team being a little tired, points to a higher scoring game than anticipated by the over/under line. Make the Over a 10* play.. |
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02-09-18 | Red Wings v. Islanders UNDER 6 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: The 26-23-6 NY Islanders squandered a chance to climb into playoff position their last time out. New York erased a three-goal deficit in Buffalo on Thursday but allowed a tally with 4:14 left in the third period and dropped a 4-3 decision. With 58 points, the Islanders lose a tie-breaker with the Blue Jackets for the final playoff spot in teh East and are just one point up on the Hurricanes, who sit in 10th-place. New York will host the 21-23-8 Detroit Red Wings, who have a modest 50 points and are staring at a second straight season of missing teh playoffs after qualifying for 25 straight postseasons. The Red Wings are coming off back-to-back 3-2 losses, falling at Florida on Saturday before being edged at home by Boston on Tuesday. Detroit: The Red Wings have scored more than two goals only three times in their last 12 games, going 4-7-1. Center Dylan Larkin notched an assist Tuesday to end his five-game drought and increase his team-leading total to 39. Darren Helm was held without a point by Boston, after collecting a goal and four assists over his previous two contests. Frans Nielsen, who spent the first 10 seasons of his career with the Islanders, scored just his second goal in 14 games on Tuesday. The Red Wings are nearing must-win territory if they hope to return to the playoffs, as they enter Friday eight points behind the Islanders and Blue Jackets. I think there's a huge urgency (to) the games we have coming -- the games we have ahead of us will make the latter games matter," Red Wings head coach Jeff Blashill told reporters after practice Thursday. "It's a critical junction." NY Islanders: New York's loss to the Eastern Conference-worst Sabres cost them a chance to gain sole possession of the second wild card, so instead, the Islanders enter Friday tied with the Blue Jackets, who have two games in hand. The team is dealing with a plethora of injuries on the blue line, Dennis Seidenberg found himself in the lineup Thursday for just the fourth time since Jan. 5 and 21st overall this season. Captain John Tavares (28 goals / 32 assists) has tallied in back-to-back contests and is riding a three-game point streak, leaving him three shy of 600 for his career. The pick: This is a game between one of the lowest-scoring teams (Detroit's 2.54 GPG ranks 28th) and one of the highest-scoring ones (Isles average 3.29 GPG to rank 3rd). With the Red Wings in a 12-game scoring drought (see above), the best play here is the total. Make the Under a 10* selection. |
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02-08-18 | Gonzaga v. Pacific UNDER 147.5 | Top | 71-61 | Win | 100 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
ANALYSIS COMING |
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02-07-18 | UNLV v. Nevada UNDER 163.5 | Top | 86-78 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: Nevada joined the MWC for the 2012-13 season, meaning the in-state rivalry between the Wolf Pack and Runnin' Rebels only intensified. When it comes to bragging rights for the state of Nevada, there's no love lost between UNLV (located in Las Vegas) and Nevada (located in Reno), although the schools are 430 miles apart. Nevada moved back into the AP top-25 rankings this week at No. 23, thanks in part to a 9-1 record in Mountain West play, the school's best conference start since joining the league. As for UNLV, the Runnin' Rebels have rebounded from a 11-21 record in head coach Marvin Menzies' first season at the helm and will enter this contest at 16-7. However, the school took advantage of a weak non-conference schedule to go 11-2. UNLV is just 5-5 in MWC play. UNLV: The Runnin' Rebels are off a 93-91 overtime loss at second-place Boise State on Saturday night. Brandon McCoy is a 7-1 center who was selected the conference preseason freshman of the year. He's lived up to expectations by averaging 18.0 & 10.0 with 12 double-doubles. He's one of four double digit scorers, the others being guards Johnson (14.6 & 5.9 APG) and Mooring (13.5) plus the 6-7 Juiston (14.6 & 9.7), who was last year's national junior college player of the year. Nevada: The Wolf Pack are just a 104-103 double-overtime loss at Wyoming from being undefeated in Mountain West play. They are led in scoring by 6-7 junior forward Caleb Martin (19.8 & 5.3), a transfer from North Carolina State who is shooting 46.9 percent from three-point range and is coming off a 26-point, seven-rebound outing in a 76-67 victory at Colorado State. Jordan Caroline is a 6-7 guard who is the reigning Mountain West Tournament MVP. He is second in scoring (16.7) and leads the team in rebounding (8.8). Cody Martin, twin brother of Caleb and also a N.C. State transfer, is averaging 13.5 points, 6.3 rebounds, while senior guard Kendall Stephens (12.6 points), a transfer from Purdue, also is averaging double digits. The pick: UNLV used to dominate the series between the two Silver State schools and hold a 59-25 series advantage but Nevada is 3-1 since Eric Musselman took over as head coach and handed UNLV a pair of lopsided beatdowns last season, winning 104-77 at Lawlor Events Center and 94-58 at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas. Both schools feature very different roster from last year but the intensity remains. last yera's whe win in Reno featured the Wolf Pack unveiling new "Battle Born" jerseys, pre-game introductions by famed boxing ring announcer Michael "Let's Get Ready to Rumble" Buffer and Nevada players walking through a record crowd of 11,841 to enter the court before delivering the impressive 27-point knockout. I expect UNLV to remember and note that Nevada has lost the last three times after entering the national poll. However, all three of those games were on the road, not here at home where the Wolf Pack are 40-4 under Musselman, including 29-1 in their last 30 home contests. Not sure I want to buck Nevada but a low scoring game should be expected. Make the Under an 8* play. |
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02-07-18 | Oilers v. Kings OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 115 | 15 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: The Los Angeles Kings never expected they'd have goaltender controversy this season but former Conn Smythe winner Jonathan Quick has lost seven of his last eight starts. He has been especially porous in his past two. He was pulled after allowing five goals on 19 shots in a 6-2 loss against the Vancouver Canucks on Jan. 23 and when he returned in goal last Thursday, he allowed five more goals in a 5-0 loss at the Nashville Predators. The 29-18-5 Kings welcome the disappointing 23-24-4 Edmonton Oilers to Staples Center tonight, who are coming a 6-2 victory against the Tampa Bay Lightning on Monday. Edmonton: The Oilers have been a huge disappointment this season, as after last season's points, they currntly have just 50 points, leaving them 13 points behind the final wild card team in the West (the Wild have 63 points). However, the Oilers are coming off their best seven-game stretch of the season (5-1-1), which includes wins over the Golden Knights and Lightning , who each lead their respective conferences. They've been led by reigning Hart Trophy winner, Connor McDavid, who has scored a career-high four goals and has six goals and an assist in his last two games. Ryan Strome set up a pair of goals in the first period against the Lightning to give him five assists in his past three games. Cam Talbot benefited from the increase in offense and turned aside 32 shots on Monday to improve his save percentage to .917 over his past five games (4-1-0). Los Angeles: It's been all downhill for Quick since a 5-0 shutout against the Oilers back on Jan. 2 in Edmonton. Backup Darcy Kuemper has stepped in, posting back-to-back shutouts last week against the Dallas Stars and Arizona Coyotes, and the career backup hasn't allowed a goal in his past 170 minutes, 30 seconds. "Darcy is seeing the puck right now. The puck's hitting him," Stevens said after the 6-0 victory against the Coyotes on Saturday. "He's probably played as well as he's ever played, and he's really come in and played sound for us. With a couple days in between, you don't often get that. We'll enjoy the win, but there's no question we're going to need both our goalies to win hockey games as we move along here." Captain Anze Kopitar increased his point total to 15 (three goals, 12 assists) in his last 13 games after scoring and setting up a goal against Arizona. He has reached the 20-goal plateau (20 goals and 55 points) for the ninth time in his career and ignited a three-goal surge during a lengthy power-play opportunity to propel Los Angeles in its rout of Edmonton in the first encounter. The pick: The matchup in goal is expected to be Ward and Quick. I'm ready to call it a shootout but I do want to make the Over a 10* play. |
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02-06-18 | Rockets v. Nets OVER 217.5 | Top | 123-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: The Houston Rockets are humming along nicely of late, displaying effective chemistry on both sides of the ball. Houston made a big statement with its 120-88 rout in Cleveland Saturday night against the Cavaliers on ABC. The Rockets made 19 three-pointers (Houston leads the NBA by a wide margin with 43 three-point attempts per game), giving them a fourth straight win and 11 victories over the last 13 games. There will be national TV 'stage' tonight in Brooklyn, when teh Rockets visit Barclays Center for a contest with the 19-35 Nets. Brooklyn lost 109-94 to Milwaukee on Sunday to fall to 1-2 on their four-game homestand, leaving them eight games shy of the playoff 'cut line,' as the trade deadline approaches. Houston: Harden (31.2-9.0-9.1) can still dominate the conversation for Houston from time to time (see his 60-point triple-double a week ago) but other components are also going well for the Western Conference's second-best team. Houston is 11-2 in its last 13 games (since Jan. 8) and before the Rockets began this run with a 116-107 win at Chicago, Houston had followed up a 14-game winning streak with seven losses in nine games. The Rockets are now 38-13, comfortably in second place in the West and inching closer to Golden State (two games back). Houston is six games ahead of the San Antonio Spurs. Paul (19.2-5.7-8.5) had 22 points and 11 assists and Ryan Anderson (10.2 & 5.4) added 21 points on Saturday as Houston had no issues overcoming an off night for the NBA's leading scorer, James Harden (16 points, going just 1-of-11 from three-point range). Houston ranks second in scoring at 114.0 PPG but another sign of progress in the last few weeks has been on the defensive side. Although the Rockets are in the middle of the pack by allowing 105.7 PPG (16th), they are allowing 101.8 in the last 13 while posting a 102.5 defensive rating in that stretch. Brooklyn: The Nets have lost six of their last seven after Sunday's loss to the Bucks (see above), while getting held under 100 points in five of their last six outings. Brooklyn has been outrebounded by 18 in back-to-back games, something which may continue here, as the team's leading rebounder is forward Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (6.5) has missed five games in a row with a groin injury and has already been ruled out for this one. The Nets are the NBA's worst shooting team at 43.6% but rank a middle-of-the-road in points scored, at 104.9 PPG. Defensively, Brooklyn allows 108.7 PPG to rank 24th. The pick: Houston has won three straight matchups with Brooklyn and the Rockets are looking to sweep the season series for the eighth time in the last 12 seasons. Harden scored 37 points and added 10 rebounds while Paul finished with four points and a season-high 14 assists in a 117-103 win over the Nets at home earlier this season (Nov. 27). Brooklyn has been able to slip inside inflated numbers vs. Houston since last season, including a 14-point loss (as a 17 ½-point dog) on Nov. 27 at Toyota Center. The Nets could just 'hang around' in this home dog role and with both teams trending “under” lately, I look for a higher scoring game than the total indicates. Note that in Houston's three-game winning streak over Brooklyn, the Rockets have scored 117 points (TY), plus 122 and 137 points in two meetings LY. Make the Over a 10* play! |
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02-06-18 | Capitals v. Blue Jackets OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: The Washington Capitals have allowed 11 goals in consecutive losses to Pittsburgh and Vegas, marking the first time they has dropped two straight in regulation since Nov. 14-16. After failing to earn a point in back-to-back games for the first time since mid-November, the the 30-17-5 Capitals, whose 65 points have them atop the Metropolitan Division, look to get back on track when they visit the 27-21-4 Columbus Blue Jackets, in the front end of a home-and-home series. The Capitals have only two wins in their last seven games (2-3-2), while the Blue Jackets suffered a 4-3 setback at the New York Islanders on Saturday and enter tonight's contest on a three-game slide giving them a poor 2-5-1 mark over their last eight games. Washington: "We’re just giving up too (many) good chances right now,” defenseman Matt Niskanen said after the Capitals allowed two goals in the final 11 minutes in Sunday's 4-3 home loss to the Golden Knights. Special teams have also dragged down the Capitals in the past two games, as they killed off just one of five penalties while going 0-for-5 on the power play, this after scoring eight times with the man advantage in the previous four games. However, there's no panic among the Capitals, who led the Golden Knights in the third period before giving up the winning goal. "I thought that we played well enough to at least get a point there and we didn't," Capitals head coach Barry Trotz said. "I thought we had the game when it was 3-2. We had a couple of open nets and we missed those, and it just came back and bit us you know where." Let's note that the Capitals had been one of the NHL's hottest teams before this two-game before the mini-skid, having 20-4-5 in their previous 29 games Columbus: The Blue Jackets could not protect a third-period lead in Saturday's 4-3 loss at the New York Islanders. However, despite the loss, Columbus head coach John Tortorella said his team "took a huge step in the right direction" by unleashing a season-high 49 shots on goal. Right wing Cam Atkinson has collected a point in all four games since returning from the lineup after missing more than a month following foot surgery. Atkinson notched his eighth goal Saturday and is looking more like the player who led the Blue Jackets in scoring last season with. The Blue Jackets are definitely struggling recently. They were sitting in first place in the division at Thanksgiving but they've struggled for the past two-plus months, never winning more than two games in a row and now they're clinging to a wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference (58 points) with a host of teams breathing down their necks with 57, 56 and 55 points.. The pick: February could be make-or-break time for the Blue Jackets. A majority of their games will be against division opponents, including the Capitals three times, before the calendar turns to March. Coming off back-to-back losses (see above), I expect the Caps, who average 3.06 GPG (9th) to bring their "A game" but I will also note that Washington is allowing an average of 3.54 GPG on the road, Make the Over an 8* play. |
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02-05-18 | Mavs v. Clippers OVER 212 | Top | 101-104 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: Tobias Harris and Avery Bradley were both solid in their team debuts for the Los Angeles Clippers on Saturday (a 113-103 win over the Bulls), giving the 26-25 Clippers hope that they can still contend for a playoff spot after trading away franchise cornerstone Blake Griffin. The Clippers will welcome the 17-36 Dallas Mavericks to Staples Center on Monday night, with the Mavericks coming off a 106-99 win at Sacramento on Saturday. That victory ended ended a stretch of five straight losses and a run of six games in a row having failed to reach 100 points. Dallas: Leading scorer Harrison Barnes (18.4) went 5-of-17 from the floor as the Mavericks dropped a 102-88 decision at Phoenix (Wednesday) to begin the trip but rebounded with a 7-of-14 outing on Saturday. Dallas also benefited from the return of reserve point guard J.J. Barea (11.3 & 5.9 APG), who missed three straight games with an oblique injury but returned at Sacramento and handed out 11 assists in 24 minutes. Rookie PG Dennis Smith (14.7-3.9-4.8) has been one of the NBA's best first-year players but Dirk (12.1 & 5.6) is on the downside of his career and no longer a substantial contributor. LA Clippers: Harris is an underrated player, who is averaging 18.2 & 5.1 this season, after averaging 16.1 & 5.1 last season. Bradley is an outstanding defender and a reliable scorer, although he's still working his way into shape after battling a groin injury near the end of his tenure in Detroit. He started and played 32 minutes on Saturday. "I felt like it was good," Bradley told reporters. "I'm still getting my legs under me. But I feel like it was a good start for us. We're still getting used to each other. But I feel like once we're able to learn how to play off one another, the sky is the limit for this team." As long as LA keeps Williams (23.4 & 5.2 APG) and Jordan (11.6 & 14.9), he may be right. The pick: However, LA is said to be looking to clear salary for upcoming free agency reasons and might not be done wheeling and dealing before the deadline, with a good chance that DeAndre Jordan is next to be on the move by Thursday. In two previous meetings this season, the Clipper won here in LA 119-98 and the Mavs won in Dallas, 108-82. LA's situation is "in flux" but I see both teams combining for more points than this over/under line reflects. Make teh Over an 8* play. |
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02-04-18 | Eagles v. Patriots OVER 48 | Top | 41-33 | Win | 100 | 314 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: The New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles meet Sunday at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis for Super Bowl 52. It's common knowledge that the Patriots have a chance to win the sixth Super Bowl title in franchise history, all of which have come since the 2001 NFL season, during the Belichick and Brady era. Meanwhile, the Eagles are looking for the first Super Bowl title in franchise history (lost to the Raiders in Super Bowl and the Pats in Super Bowl), as well as the franchise's first NFL championship since the 1960 season. That team beat Lombardi's Packers, handing the coaching legend his only postseason loss (9-1). Both teams went 13-3 SU, with the Pats going 11-5 ATS and the Eagles, 10-6. Philadelphia: Carson Wentz was a MVP candidate before getting hurt in Week 15. Nick Foles has endured an uneven ride as his replacement. while filling in for the injured Carson Wentz. He replaced an injured Wentz against the Giants and completed 24 of 38 with four TD passes but then was a combined 23 of 49 for 202 yards (one TD / two INTs) in Weeks 16 & 17. However, he completed 23-of-30 passes for 246 yards in the 15-10 win over the Falcons and then 'exploded' in the NFC championship game romp over the Vikings. Foles completed 26 of 33 for 352 yards with three TDs and zero INTs, giving him a 141.4 QB rating. He's backed by a solid running game that averaged 132.3 YPG on the ground during the regular season, 3rd-best in the NFL. Jay Ajayi stumbled out of the blocks with a fumble on his first carry against Atlanta, before finishing with 54 yards rushing and 44 receiving on three catches. He then ran for 73 yards vs. the Vikings and caught three more passes for 26 yards. He has become Philadelphia's top option out of the backfield following an in-season trade with Miami, although LeGarrette Blount (team-high 776 yards in the regular season) had a rushing TD in each of Philly's two playoff wins. Philly owns an excellent defense. It ranked 4th in scoring (18.4 PPG) and total D (306.5 YPG) during the regular season and held Matt Ryan and the Falcons scoreless in the second half of that divisional round win and to just 10 points for the game on just 281 yards. It then followed by allowing the game's first TD against the Vikings, before shutting them out the remainder of the game. New England: Brady had another remarkable season (4,577 passing yards with 32 TDs and just eight INTs for a 102.8 QB rating), as the Pats led the NFL in total offense (394.2 YPG) and scored the second-most points at 28.6 PPG. Brady owns the most postseason wins in history and added to his playoff legacy vs the Titans by passing for more than 300 yards (337) for the 13th time and surpassing Joe Montana with his 10th three-touchdown performance. Brady and his "injured" right hand then led the Pats to two 4th-quarter TDs in coming back from 20-10 down against the Jags, to win 24-20. He was 26 of 38 for 290 yards with two TDs, zero INTs and a 108.4 QB against Jacksonville's dominant defense, giving him his 27th postseason win. Four New England players had at least 56 catches in the regular season with TE Rob Gronkowski topping the list with 69 receptions (15.7 YPC) and eight TDs. Gronk was KO'd against heh Jags but is expected to be back. However, in Gronk's absence, Cooks had six catches for 100 yards and Amendola had seven catches fo 84 yards, including both TDs in the fourth quarter. RB Dion Lewis had rushed for at least 60 yards in seven of his last eight games but was held to 34 yards. However, he caught seven passes against the Jags, after catching nine against the Titans. New England finished the season allowing 18.5 PPG but it allowed 32.0 PPG through its first four games, before allowing only just 14.0 PPG over its last 12. In two playoff wins, the Pats then held the Titans to just 14 points and 267 yards and the Jags to 20 points (just two FGs in the second half). The pick: Sure, it's Foles and not Wentz at QB but tell that do a Minnesota defense which entered the NFC championship game ranking first in points allowed (15.8) and total defense (275.9), as well as second in passing yards allowed (192.4). Foles completed 26 of 33 for 352 yards with three TDs and zero INTs (giving him a 141.4 QB rating), as the Eagles rolled up 38 points. The New England defense has real issues against the run (4.71 YPC) and Foles has two quality RBs in Ajayi and Blount. Sure, the Philly defense is stout and physical but doesn't Brady "always find a way" to move the chains and put points on the board? The Pats have averaged 30.1 PPG since their bye week (10 games, including the postseason), having been held to less than 24 points just twice. The Over is an 8* play. |
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02-04-18 | Golden Knights v. Capitals OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 2 m | Show |
Vegas: The Golden Knights are 2-1-0 on their current trip and will visit Pittsburgh and San Jose after meeting the Capitals. Erik Haula is riding a five-game goal-scoring streak during which he reached 20 goals for the first time in his career and has notched at least one point in eight straight contests to match David Perron, who is second on the team behind Jonathan Marchessault (48) with 46 points. Perron has recorded four goals and eight assists during his run. William Karlsson (27 goals) has gone four straight games without one and All-Star James Neal (22 goals) was held without a shot in Friday’s setback. Washington: Captain Alex Ovechkin scored twice in the loss at Pittsburgh and has collected five goals and five assists over his last seven games to increase his team-leading total to 56 points. Evgeny Kuznetsov scored for just the second time in nine games Friday and has 48 points to rank second on the team while defenseman John Carlson has produced five of his 40 points over the last six contests. All-Star Braden Holtby (26-10-4, 2.78 GAA & .914 SP) has allowed nine goals in his last two games but backup Philipp Grubauer (4-6-3, 2.60 GAA & .916 SP) is expected to start Sunday. The pick: Sunday will be the Knights' first visit to Washington. In the teams' first meeting, back on Dec. 23 in Las Vegas, Alex Tuch, Oscar Lindberg and William Karlsson scored first-period goals in a 3-0 Golden Knights win. Marc-Andre Fleury stopped 26 shots for the shutout. Fleury is 21-12-2 with a 2.53 goals-against average and a .915 save percentage against Washington during his career. However, as noted often here, a "typical" Vegas road game features an average final score of 6.19 goals. I'm not completely sold on Philipp Grubauer but the Capitals do own a 17-7-1-0 record all-time on Super Bowl Sunday. Let's make the Over a 10* play. |
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02-03-18 | Pelicans v. Wolves UNDER 221 | Top | 107-118 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: Minnesota's off-season moves have seemingly turned the Timberwolves into a viable playoff team for the 2017-18 season. Every team plays in Golden State's 'shadow' but it's hard to dismiss the fact that a team which has not been in the playoff field over the previous 13 seasons, currently sits at 33-22 (No. 4 seed). The Timberwolves have won 11 home games in a row at the Target Center and have the second-most wins at home (21-6) in the NBA this season as they get set to host the New Orleans Pelicans on Saturday. New Orleans just lost All-Star DeMarcus Cousins for the season to an Achilles injury. The Pelicans lost their first two games without Cousins but posted an impressive 114-100 victory at Oklahoma City on Friday, behind 43 points and 10 rebounds from Anthony Davis. New Orleans. In an effort to mitigate the loss of Cousins (25.2 & 12.9), the 28-3 Pelicans traded for Chicago forward Nikola Mirotic. He is expected to make his debut in tonight's contest. "When you lose a guy like DeMarcus, it's tough on our team," Davis told the team's website. "But we have to keep going. I think the organization went out right away to do something about it, knowing the position we are in, sitting at No. 7 now. We want to make sure we don't drop, and that we keep progressing as a team." the 6-10 Mirotic brings size and shooting. He is averaging career-bests in points per game (16.8), field-goal percentage (47.4), three-point percentage (42.9) and rebounds (6.4 per game) in his fourth season. Minnesota: Center Karl-Antony Towns had 24 points and 11 rebounds in Thursday's win over Milwaukee. against Milwaukee. However, Jimmy Butler is averaging 24.5 points in four games since returning from a knee injury and leads the team in scoring (21.9) on the season (also averages 5.4 RPG and 5.0 APG ). All five starters average in double digits, followed by Towns (21.9 & 12.1), Wiggins (17. & 4.2), Teague (12.9 & 6.9 APG) and Gibson (12.1 & 7.4). Sixth-man Crawford (9.9) just misses. The pick: With the Super Bowl this Sunday in Minneapolis, many notable figures were present for Thursday's game, including New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick, boxer Floyd Mayweather and Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown. Tonight's game could see more of the same buzz in the arena. "It's funny, the Super Bowl brings out all the celebrities," center Karl-Anthony Towns. "It was very cool for all the celebrities who are not accustomed to coming out to Minnesota getting to watch the game in our house, and it's awesome." Minnesota has won all three meetings with the Pelicans and those were before Cousins was lost for the season. Mirotic will need some time to work his way into the rotation and with high over/under number, I see the Under as a 10* play. |
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02-02-18 | Sharks v. Blue Jackets OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: The 261-6-8 San Jose Sharks have lost four in a row, a stretch coinciding with veteran center Joe Thornton suffering a serious knee injury. Thornton was hurt in an overtime loss to Winnipeg on Jan. 23 and the Sharks have followed with three more losses, the most recent being a 2-1 shootout loss at Detroit this past Wednesday. San Jose makes its third stop of a five-game road trip tonight when the Sharks visit the 27-19-4 Columbus Blue Jackets. Columbus is also coming off a shootout defeat (3-2 at home to Minnesota), when it failed to score more than two goals in regulation for the 10th time in the last 11 games. San Jose: "We've played three games without (Thornton) and we've lost all three and gotten one point. That has to stop now," San Jose forward Logan Couture said. "He's a great player but we've got to find a way to start winning hockey games without him." Without the 13-year veteran Thornton, the young Sharks will take a committee approach. They have seven double-figures goal scorers, led by Logan Couture's 21. Tomas Hertl is next with 14, followed by Chris Tierney with 12, Timo Meier with 11, and Joe Pavelski and Joonas Donskoi with 10 apiece. Defenseman Brent Burns had a team-leading 42 points. Goaltender Martin Jones was among the players who said they have to "step up" in Thornton's absence, and he did his part by making a season-high 43 saves against Detroit. Jones has struggled through an erratic, injury-plagued campaign, but coach Peter DeBoer said he has no concerns about him entering the stretch run. “I don’t even think that’s a question,” DeBoer said. “I think he’s going to do that. I think we’re going to get great goaltending the whole second half here.” Columbus: The Blue Jackets own the league's worst power play at 14.1 percent, although there has been an uptick in production with six goals in 19 chances over the past eight games. Columbus has played in fits and starts during the first 50 games of the season. After an early six-game winning streak, the team has leveled off dramatically and fallen back in the Eastern Conference standings (currently own the first of two wild card spots). After the Blue Jackets suffered a 3-2 shootout loss at home Tuesday night to the Minnesota Wild, coach John Tortorella worked the team hard in practice to prepare for the final 32 regular-season games in 65 days. The pick: Both teams will be attempting to figure out how to pick up a win when they meet tonight at Nationwide Arena. and while neither is showing much scoring 'punch,' my gut says the "over" is the way to go. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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02-01-18 | Raptors v. Wizards UNDER 215 | Top | 119-122 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: The Washington Wizards announced on Tuesday that Wall (19.4 & 9.3 APG) would miss up to two months following knee surgery and then went out and handed Thunder their first loss in nine games with a 102-96 triumph, limiting Russell Westbrook to 13 points on 5-of-18 shooting (note: he had scored 46 in a win over Washington at OKC just five days earlier). "Everybody contributed to the win tonight," All-Star guard Bradley Beal told reporters after scoring 21 points and matching a career high with nine assists. "All 15 guys came in and did their job and did what they're supposed to do. So it's a credit to everybody." The 28-22 Wizards will host the 34-15 Toronto Raptors in the finale of a two-game homestand, tonight. The Raptors just beat Minnesota 109-104 at home Tuesday night and after this contest will return to Air Canada Centre to play four in a row where they are 19-4. Toronto: The Raptors have closed within 1 1/2 games of the Celtics for the East's No. 1 seed and have also put some distance between themselves and the third-seeded Cavs (4 1/2 games). Toronto's All-Star backcourt of DeMar DeRozan (24.4-4.1-5.2) and Kyle Lowry (16.4-6.0-6.6) combined for 38 points and 17 assists in the win over the T-wolves. That duo is complemented by PF Ibaka (13.0 & 6.1) and center Valanciunas (11.8 & 8.4), in the frontcourt. Valanciunas added 18 & 11 against Minnesota, giving him four straight double-doubles while making 33-of-51 shots (64.7%). Toronto's 111.1 PPG ranks third behind only the Warriors and Rockets. Washington: Otto Porter Jr. (13.8 & 6.2) led the way with 25 points in the win over Oklahoma City and Tomas Satoransky (4.9 & 2.7 APG) made his second straight start in place of Wall a memorable one by helping to lock up Westbrook on the defensive end. "Tomas played well," coach Scott Brooks told the media. "Tomas really battled, and he was trying to stay in front of one of the fastest guards in the league." Satoransky had six assists, five rebounds, two steals and a block, although he did miss all four of his shot attempts. With Wall out, the Wizards will need frontcourt players like Oubre (12.1 & 4.8), Morris (10.6 & 5.6), Scott (9.1 & 3.2) and Gortat (8.9 & 8.0) to pick up some of the scoring slack. The pick: The Raptors offense has had some stumbles of late but a soft part of the schedule coming up should help them, as this is only one of two road games in stretch of ten games that began after the 108-93 win at Atlanta on Jan. 24. Washington averages 107.0 PPG (9th), so both teams can score. However, as was shown in the first game without Wall, the Wizards kept Westbrook in check and held the Thunder to just 96 points. That kind of pace may be a key to beating the Raptors here. Note that these two teams have met twice already (both time in Toronto), with each winning once. However, look at the final scores, 107-96 and 100-91. Make the Under a 10* play! |
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01-31-18 | Bulls v. Blazers OVER 214 | Top | 108-124 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
The set-up: The Portland Trail Blazers have gotten things together and last night's 104-96 road victory over the short-handed Los Angeles Clippers (due to the Blake Griffin trade) was the team's sixth win in its last seven games. Portland is now 28-22, giving them what would be the No. 6 seed in the West, three games inside the playoff 'cut line.' The Blazers are back home tonight to face the 18-32 Chicago Bulls, who have lost four consecutive games after dropping a 110-96 decision to the Milwaukee Bucks on Sunday. Chicago: PG Kris Dunn (13.7-4.6-6.4) will miss his sixth consecutive game due to a concussion and the Chicago offense isn't running on all cylinders without him. Jerian Grant has received more playing time during Dunn's absence but his inconsistency (22 points, 13 assists against New Orleans, a combined 16 points and 11 assists over the following two contests) remains a problem. Guard Zach LaVine returned to action Jan. 13 after missing the first half of the season following ACL surgery on his left knee. LaVine has averaged 12.6 PPG in eight games but has really struggled with his shooting in the past two games, going a combined 5 for 28 from the floor. Overall team health plus the potential potential trade involving forward Nikola Miroti (16.8 & 6.4) are big concerns for the Bulls right now. Portland: PG Lillard (25.5-4.7-6.5) is on a big-time roll since returning from hamstring and calf injuries and has topped 20 points in each of the last 10 games while averaging 27.4 points during the stretch. Backcourt partner CJ McCollum (21.4) has enjoyed a productive month with 10 , 20-point outings, although he had a modest 16 points on 5-of-18 shooting against the Clippers last night. In contrast, center Jusuf Nurkic matched his career high by collecting 20 rebounds against the Clippers and has been a mainstay for the Blazers, averaging 14.3 & 8.2 on the season. He's the only Blazer in double digits outside of the team's starting backcourt. .The pick: The Bulls went on a 7-0 run when Nicola Mirotic returned to the court and were 10-2 through his first 12 games back. However, that positive mojo has now 'gone with the wind,' as the team has lost 10 of 15 (four straight) and Mirotic is still expected to be moved before the trade deadline (will Chicago get the first-round pick they want?). Meanwhile, Portland comes in looking for a seventh win in its last eight overall, including an eighth consecutive home win. Portland's averaged 113.3 PPG during its seven-game home winning streak and with both teams having played last night, expect a little less effort on the defensive end all around. Make the Over an 8* play. |
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01-29-18 | Wolves v. Hawks UNDER 215 | Top | 100-105 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: The Minnesota Timberwolves are a different team with Jimmy Butler in the lineup and the All-Star guard's return helped them avoid a three-game slide. Butler sat out four games with right knee soreness and watched his team fall to fellow Western Conference playoff contenders Portland and Golden State on the road before returning on Saturday and helping Minnesota to a 111-97 home win over the Brooklyn Nets. Butler will continue to shake off the rust and try to lead the Timberwolves to back-to-back victories when they visit the NBA-worst Atlanta Hawks (14-35) on Monday. Atlanta just allowed the Washington Wizards to shoot 57.6 percent from the floor in a 129-104 loss on Saturday and the team's latest slide (just three games), has seen them allow an average of 119.3 PPG. Minnesota: Minnesota surrendered an average of 119 points in the four games that Butler missed but forced 16 turnovers in the easy win, while allowing 97 points. "Defense is what wins this game," All-Star center Karl-Anthony Towns, who added three blocks and a steal to his 16 points and 19 rebounds, told the Minneapolis Star Tribune. The double-double was an NBA-leading 43rd for Towns, who is averaging 20.1 & 12.2. Butler averages a team-high 21.7 PPG (also 5.4 RPG & 5.0 APG) and Wiggins 18.2 & 4.2. That trio is joined by PG Teague (13.3 & 6.9 APG), PF Gibson (12.1 & 7.5) and sixth-man Crawford (10.0) in double digits. Atlanta: The Hawks now lean heavily on PG Dennis Schroder (19.6 & 6.4 APG), who has replaced Jeff Teague. However, Atlanta needs more consistency from the supporting players on the offensive end. The team does have six players other than Schroder averaging in double digits but the team is averaging only 103.5 PPG (21st). The pick: Despite their far different records, the 32-20 Timberwolves and the 14-35 Hawks have the same record against the opposite conference. Minnesota is 8-11 against the East and Atlanta is 8-11 against the West. Minnesota has the second-best home record in the NBA at 20-6 but the Timberwolves have lost six of their past seven on the road going into tonight's game in Atlanta. The Timberwolves defeated the Hawks 82-84 in Atlanta and 104-90 in Minnesota last season. Expect another low-scoring game, making the Under an 8* play. |
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01-28-18 | Kings v. Spurs OVER 193.5 | Top | 98-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: Friday's 78-point effort marked a season low for San Antonio, which went 3-of-24 from three-point range and was out-rebounded 56-39 in losing at home to the Philadelphia 76ers. It should come as no surprise that head coach Gregg Popovich wasn't too pleased with how his team performed in that 97-78 home loss. The Spurs have now dropped two of their last three in their own building, following a 14-game home winning streak. The Spurs will welcome the 15-33 Sacramento Kings to AT&T Center tonight. The Kings have the West's worst record and own just an 8-19 road mark but two of those wins have come in the team's most recent two games, part of a six-game road swing. Sacramento: The Kings are giving longer looks to their younger players and were led by the likes of Buddy Hield and De'Aaron Fox while closing Thursday's 89-88 win at Miami on a 17-4 run. The game before, the Kings won 105-99 in Orlando. Sacramento is sitting veterans every game in an effort to get younger players more minutes, and point guard George Hill taking the night off Thursday meant more room for Fox. The rookie from Kentucky responded with 14 points in 30 minutes, including the deciding dunk with three seconds remaining. Buddy Hield scored 24 points for Sacramento against the Heat and ranks second on the team with 12.7 PPG, behind veteran PF Randolph (14.3 & 6.9). Fox is averaging 10.4 & 4.2 APG with center Willie Cauley-Stein averaging 12.4 & 6.8. However, Cauley-Stein suffered a bone bruise in his right knee in Thursday's win (revealed by a Friday MRI) and will sit out the next two games, before being be re-evaluated. San Antonio: "Their defense got us out of everything," head coach Gregg Popovich told reporters after Friday's loss to Philly. "Our defense wasn't great. Their speed got us. We didn't get back in transition. So, I thought they did a great job. If I was a San Antonio fan tonight, I'd ask for my money back." Friday marked the opener of a five-game homestand for San Antonio, which still owns an NBA-best 20-4 mark at home. However, the Spurs are still missing superstar Kawhi Leonard, who was shut down nearly two weeks ago with a recurrence of quad tendinopathy and still does not have a timetable for a return. Add to Leonard's absence the fact that Rudy Gay (right heel bursitis) is out until late-Feb. and Manu Ginobili (right thigh contusion) is at best, day-to-day. The pick: Coming off that embarrassing home loss to the Sixers, no way we won't see a much better effort here by the Spurs against the Kings, By the way, San Antonio has taken the last 12 in the series (not to mention 32 of the last 34 against Sacramento), including a 107-100 win at Sacramento back on Jan. 8. The fact that the Kings seem a little more loose these days worries me some, as does the fact that the Kings own a 6-2 ATS mark in last eight visits to the AT&T Center. With this low over/under number, I'm making the Over a 10* play. |
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01-27-18 | Mavs v. Nuggets UNDER 209 | Top | 89-91 | Win | 100 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: The Nuggets have won back-to-back games to end a 2-6 slide to reach 25-23 on the season. After shooting below 50 percent in 10 straight games, the Nuggets hit 60 percent of their shot attempts in a 130-118 win over the New York Knicks on Thursday to improve to 2-1 on this current five-game homestand. The Nuggets welcome the Mavericks to the Pepsi Center tonight, a team they knocked off back on Jan. 16 right here. That loss was part of Dallas' recent 1-5 slide, which gives them a 16-33 mark. This visit to Denver begins a stretch in which Dallas plays eight of 11 on the road, where the Mavs have gone 6-16 on the season. Dallas: The Mavs have no illusions of making the playoffs this year, as they are well on their way to a second consecutive losing season. Building for the future seems to be priority No. 1, so it seems likely that the Mavs will move some player(s) as the NBA trade deadline nears. One wouldn't think that would include Harrison Barnes, the team's leading scorer (18.4) and rebounder (6.8), or prized rookie PG Dennis Smith Jr. (14.8-3.1-3.9). The Mavs were once a good offensive team but that's no longer the case, as Dallas checks in averaging only 102.2 PPG, to rank 24th of 30 teams. Denver: Veteran Wilson Chandler was moved to the bench and the shift seemed to spark the 30-year-old forward in Thursday's win. Chandler made 6-of-9 shots en route to 16 points in his best shooting effort since Jan. 3. The Nuggets' focus on a faster pace has led to two straight wins and a spot back in the Western Conference playoff picture. The Nuggets had fallen behind the LA Clippers after losing six of eight games but have now passed L.A. to sit in the eighth position. The Nuggets have recommitted to a high-octane offense and that offense clicked on all cylinders when it scored 130 points against the Knicks. Leading scorer Harris (17.2) scored 23 points and Trey Lyles (10.8 & 5.0) had 21 on 9-of-12 shooting to pace had to Denver. Center Nikola Jokic (16.2-10.3-5.1) had 29 points, 18 rebounds and seven assists in Denver's 105-102 home win on Jan. 16 over the Mavs. Jokic has carried a big load with PF Millsap (15.3 & 6.2) out until around late-Feb. The pick: These teams have met twice so far this season, with the home team capturing both. Dallas nearly rallied to win that Jan. 16 game in Denver and the Nuggets are just 2-6-2 ATS in their last 10. It would not be surprising to see Dallas keep this close and to do that, it figures to be a lower scoring game than the over/under number indicates. That's my bet. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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01-24-18 | Maple Leafs v. Blackhawks OVER 6 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: The Toronto Maple Leafs lost 4-2 to Colorado on Monday and have now lost eight of 11 (3-4-4) to fall to 26-18-5 on the season. However, while Toronto has lost five of six (1-2-3), the Maple Leafs have the luxury of playing in a weak division (Atlantic) and with 57 points, hold a double-digit point cushion for third place. Chicago started the calendar year by winning three of four while scoring 21 goals. However, that was short-lived, as the Blackhawks enter the final contest of a six-game homestand in a 1-4-0 swoon, having scored just SIX goals in five games! The skidding Blackhawks are 22-19-6 and with 50 points, are in last place in the Central Division. Toronto: The Maple Leafs have looked like a top-notch team at times this season but they have struggled as of late. Toronto has only one win in its past six contests (1-2-3), which prompted head coach Mike Babcock to shuffle some of his scoring lines during Tuesday's practice. He split up longtime linemates Nazem Kadri and Leo Komarov, but said it was only for the next two away from home. "I’m looking to have more balance and more attack, especially on the road when I don’t have last change," said Babcock, who dropped Komarov to the fourth line and replaced him with Mitch Marner on the second unit. Kasperi Kapanen was recalled from Toronto of the American Hockey League and skated on Komarov's line. Toronto is led in scoring by Auston Matthews, who has 36 points (21 goals, 15 assists) in 39 games. James van Riemsdyk ranks second on the team with 19 goals, and Marleau is third with 16 goals. Chicago: The Blackhawks certainly weren't lacking for chances in Monday's 2-0 loss to Tampa Bay (NHL's top team with points), launching 40 shots on goal and failing on six power plays to fall to 0-for-16 with the extra skater on the homestand. "It has to be better, myself included. Myself especially," defenseman Duncan Keith, who along with captain Jonathan Toews did not practice Tuesday because of a maintenance day, told reporters. "We’ve had games this year where we’ve played great against top-notch teams," star forward Patrick Kane told reporters. "So we know it’s in here. We know we can be confident, given some of the games we’ve had in the past." Chicago will try to snap a three-game losing streak tonight, a stretch in which the team has been outscored 13-3. The pick: Chicago has switched between Jeff Glass and Anton Forsberg with No. 1 netminder Corey Crawford sidelined by an upper-body injury. Crawford will miss his 13th consecutive game but is making progress and could return to the ice soon, according to the team. Glass is 3-3-1 with a 3.17 goals-against average and a .909 save percentage this season and is expected to get the nod (he never has faced Toronto). The Maple Leafs likely will counter with veteran goaltender Frederik Andersen, who has posted a 23-14-4 record with a 2.69 GAA and .920 save percentage this season. This is the second and final meeting of the regular season between these clubs, as back on Oct. 9 in Toronto, the Maple Leafs outlasted the Blackhawks 4-3 in overtime. However, Toronto will be looking for its first win in Chicago in nearly 15 years. Current form may say under but both of these teams have the 'weapons' to score and I'm making the Over a 10* play. |
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01-24-18 | Jazz v. Pistons UNDER 201 | Top | 98-95 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: The Detroit Pistons watched Spencer Dinwiddie bury a last-second shot in Sunday's 101-100 loss to the Nets, falling to just 13-8 at home this season. The Pistons have now lost five in a row, a streak that has seen them fall below .500 at 22-23 and out of the top-eight in the Eastern Conference. Detroit began a stretch in which the Pistons would play 13 of 15 at home by falling to the Washington Wizards 122-112 on Friday, then lost to the Nets and now welcome the 19-29 Utah Jazz to Little Caesars Arena. The Jazz looked good in a solid home win over the Los Angeles Clippers on Saturday but began their stretch of seven of eight on the road with a 104-90 setback at lowly Atlanta on Monday. Utah: The Jazz will play their only home game over the next 2 1/2 weeks against defending champion Golden State and had averaged 120 points in the three games prior to Monday, when they were just awful against the Hawks. No Utah starter managed more than Donovan Mitchell's 13 points against the Hawks. Mitchell (19.2-3.4-3.4), who is arguably the NBA's top rookie so far, pointed to effort as the issue. "There were times where we kind of looked like we didn't want to play, myself included," Mitchell said, according to the Salt Lake Tribune. "That's not us. That's not our identity. I think we just gotta come out with more life and more energy. I think if we play like we played here, there will be a lot of nights like this." SG Rodney Hood (16.7) has been a consistent scorer along with Mitchell plus it's good news that center Rudy Gobert (12.0 & 9.7) has gotten back on the court these last three games. The rim-protecting big man recently missed 15 games with a sprained left knee, a stretch that was preceded by an 11-game absence in mid-to-late November Detroit: "There's nothing big. There's nothing glaring," Pistons forward Anthony Tolliver told the team's website after the 101-100 loss to the Nets. "It's little things that add up over the course of 48 minutes that loses these games. We just need to clean up those little things and if we do that, we'll put ourselves in position to win every night." I'm not so sure Tolliver is right. After all, Detroit is 3-9 since starting point guard Reggie Jackson (14.6 & 5.5 APG) went down with an ankle injury. The team is struggling on the offensive end without him around to start the pick-and-roll and drive the paint. Small forward Tobias Harris (18.1) leads the team in scoring but is shooting just 37.7 percent from the floor over the last five games, including 5-of-26 from three-point range. Center Andre Drummond (14.3 & 15.0) is a double-double 'machine' but Detroit averages just 102.3 PPG (25th). The pick: The Pistons seemed like a team on the rise during the early going (14-6 through their first 20 games) but since New Year's Day, they have played like a team bound for the lottery. Detroit has dropped eight of its last 10 games and enters Wednesday on a five-game losing streak. The bottom line is, the Pistons haven't been the same team since starting PG Reggie Jackson suffered a Grade 3 ankle sprain in late December. As for the Jazz, they were 13-11 early in December but have fallen to 19-28 after Monday's loss in Atlanta. More bad news for Utah is that Rodney Hood (the team's second-leading scorer) is expected to miss his third consecutive game with a lower leg injury, hurting an offense already averaging only 101.6 PPG (26th). Both teams play excellent defense, as Detroit allows 102.2 PPG (6th) and Utah 102.5 PPG (7th), leading me to make the Under an 8* play. |
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01-22-18 | 76ers v. Grizzlies UNDER 207.5 | Top | 101-105 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: The Philadelphia 76ers stumbled into Christmas on a five-game losing streak and nine losses in their previous 10 games. However, they won 105-98 in MSG over the Knicks on Christmas Day and that victory has sparked an 8-2 run that has the Sixers at 22-20. That leaves them 7th in the East, and while they are just 1 1/2 games inside the playoff cut line, they are also withing just 3 1/2 games of the third-seeded Cavs! Philly will visit the 16-29 Memphis Grizzlies on Monday, a team which finds itself seven games out of the West's final playoff spot. The Grizzlies have struggled quite a bit since PG Conley has been sidelined but had won three straight before dropping a 111-104 decision in New Orleans on Saturday. Philadelphia: "(Coach Brett Brown) mentioned that we could jump to sixth (in the Eastern Conference) if we won," guard Ben Simmons told reporters after Saturday's 116-94 rout of the Bucks. "Obviously, it was a big game, and we did a really good job of closing it out." All-Star Joel Embiid has led the way during Philly's current three-game run by averaging 29.7 points and 12 rebounds. Embiid is averaging 24.0 & 10.9 on the season and Simmons checks in at 16.6-8.0-7.2. With JJ Redick (17.3) already out with a leg injury and fellow guard Jerryd Bayless (8.3) unavailable Saturday due to a sore wrist, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot made the most of a rare start with 16 points. "It was a big opportunity for me to show up and step up," Luwawu-Cabarrot told reporters. T.J. McConnell (7.8 & 4.8 APG) continues to step up in the backcourt as well and he has scored in double figures in four straight games for the first time this season. Memphis: The Grizzlies started Saturday's game without guards Andrew Harrison (shoulder) and Mario Chalmers (shoulder) plus lost starting forward JaMychal Green () to an ankle injury after he had grabbed 16 rebounds in only 24 minutes. A 16-point deficit after one quarter also made for a rough night.It's really been a tough yera for Memphis with Zach Randi=olph leaving via free agency and Conley sidelined. The two bright spots have been center Marc Gasol (18.1 & 8.5) and Tyreke Evans, who has reestablished himself as a quality player. He averaging 19.4-5.2-4.9 but he's playing on a one-year, $3.3 million contract (a steal) but the Grizzlies will not have the cap space to re-sign him next summer. Talk about "one & done!" The pick: Memphis is 2-12 against Eastern Conference opponents, compared to 14-17 versus the West. However, Memphis has won nine straight from Philadelphia, dating to December 2012, with the 76ers having averaged just 89.4 points in their last five matchups with the Grizzlies. Considering Memphis averages just 99.5 PPG on teh season (29th of 30 teams), the Under is an 8* play. |
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01-20-18 | Islanders v. Blackhawks UNDER 6.5 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: The 23-20-4 New York Islanders now find themselves three points out of playoff position (50points) after losing two straight and seven of the past 10 contests. They begin a three-game road trip Saturday night in Chicago against 22-17-6 Blackhawks. The Islanders have been ravaged by injuries of late and are last in the league in goals-against per game (3.66), after being outscored 9-3 in losses to New Jersey and Boston in their last two. The Blackhawks have been off since a demoralizing 4-0 loss to Detroit back on Jan. 14 and continue to miss All-Star goalie Corey Crawford (upper-body), who remains out an indefinite period. Chicago is 5-3-1 over its last nine games and still has three contests remaining on its six-game homestand. NY Islanders: “You need to work in this league, every shift,” New York head coach Doug Weight told reporters after the 5-2 loss to Boston on Thursday. “The teams that have 60, 55 points, they’re working hard nine out of 10 shifts. We’re 7½ right now and it’s costing us.” The Islanders also face Arizona and Vegas on their trip and are 10-13-1 on the road as they visit Chicago. Second-leading scorer Josh Bailey (51 points) returned from a four-game injury absence Thursday to notch an assist but fellow top-six forward Andrew Ladd (upper-body) is not expected back this weekend. Captain John Tavares (55 points) recorded his 25th goal Thursday, moving within one of team-leader Anders Lee (26 goals & 41 points), and right wing Jordan Eberle (15 goals & 37 points) also scored to give him eight points in the past five games. Center Mathew Barzal easily leads all NHL rookies in points with 48 and boasts three goals along with eight assists in his past five contests. Chicago: Leading scorer Patrick Kane (18 goals), who is three points shy of 800 in his career, and captain Jonathan Toews (14 goals and 31 points) have yet to hit the scoresheet on the homestand for the Blackhawks, whose 50 points leaves them last in the Central Division (Chicago's 109 points topped the Central last season). Forward Nick Schmaltz (12 goals and 32 points) has picked up a lot of the slack offensively over the last 10 games with six goals and six assists during that stretch. Schmaltz is second on the team behind Kane's 45 points. Jeff Glass, a 32-year-old first-year player, is 3-2-1 3.18 GAA & .910 SP) and fellow goalie Anton Forsberg (3-6-3, 2.92 GAA & .911 SP) allowed five goals in his last three games (2-1-0) to keep Chicago afloat with Crawford on the shelf. The pick: Chicago is 0-for-9 with the man advantage over the first three games of its current homestand but has also killed all 17 power plays over the last six contests. No reason to think Chicago will score much off its league-mandated break, even against New York's leaky defense. In fact, New York's Jaroslav Halak is expected to make his 29th start of the season in this one and he boasts a 7-1-3 record with a 2.06 GAA and a .930 save percentage in 12 career meetings against Chicago. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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01-19-18 | Canadiens v. Capitals UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: The Montreal Canadiens attempt to halt their five-game road losing streak when they visit the Washington Capitals on Friday. Montreal is coming off a 4-1 loss at Boston on Wednesday and has scored a total of just four goals during their five-game road losing skid. Montreal is just 18-21-6 on the season and the team's 42 points so far is huge disappointment after the team went 47-26-9 last season with its 103 points winning the Atlantic Division. The Caps are looking to bounce back quickly after falling 4-3 in overtime at New Jersey on Thursday. Washington is 28-14-4 on the season and its 60 points leads the Metropolitan Division. Montreal: Montreal's offense needs a jolt, as the Canadiens' 2.53 GPG ranks 29th of 312 NHL teams. Jakub Jerabek recorded the lone tally (his first in the NHL) 31 seconds into the game at Boston but it was all downhill from there in a 4-1 loss. "Tonight we just laid an egg. Not good enough," head coach Claude Julien told NHL.com. "So obviously it's a disappointing loss for us, especially in the situation we're in. But we didn't play well, as simple as that. You hope you can bounce back next game and resemble more the team you did in the last four or five (games)." Logan Shaw hopes to make his debut for the team on Friday, as he was a healthy scratch in the loss to the Bruins after being claimed off waivers from Anaheim two days earlier. "I'll work every shift I'm out there and do my best to help this team win," the 25-year-old right wing, who notched two goals and six assists in 42 games with the Ducks this season, told Montreal's website after joining the club. Center Alex Galchenyuk has a team-high of just 26 points (11 goals). Washington: Brett Connolly scored twice in the OT loss at New Jersey, giving him three goals in his last two contests and 12 on the season to climb into third place on the club. Captain Alex Ovechkin leads the Capitals with 49 points (28 goals). He has registered five goals and seven assists over his last eight games but has been kept off the scoresheet in two of the past three. Evgeny Kuznetsov notched an assist against the Devils, giving him three points over his last four contests after recording just one in his previous six games. He ranks second on the team in goals (13), assists (29) and points (42). The pick: Washington's likely Friday starter will be backup goalie Philipp Grubauer. He is 4-0-2 with a 1.33 GAA and .957 save percentage in his last seven appearances but Washington is 18-6-0 at home, where the Caps average 3.21 GPG. \I'm making the Under a 10* play. |
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01-17-18 | Canadiens v. Bruins OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: The Boston Bruins followed up Saturday's 4-3 shootout win in Montreal with a 3-2 overtime loss to visiting Dallas on Monday afternoon, extending the team's point streak to 13 games (9-0-4) since its last regulation loss back on Dec. 14. The 24-10-8 Bruins have gone more than a month since dropping back-to-back games and they have not lost in regulation in that same span. The Bruins' 56 points have them sitting in second-place in the Atlantic Division and Boston looks to stay 'hot,' as it gets set to host the 18-20-6 Montreal Canadiens, tonight. It marks the second matchup in five days between the teams (Boston won a shootout Saturday in Montreal) and a third tussle is looming at the Bell Centre this coming Saturday. Monteal: The Canadiens have just 42 points so far, a huge disappointment after the team went 47-26-9 last season, with its 103 points winning the Atlantic Division. The Canadiens have earned points in four in a row (2-0-2) after wrapping up a five-game homestand with a 5-4 overtime loss to the New York Islanders 5-4, but the reality is, they are in 14th place in the Eastern Conference. Max Pacioretty has been mired in a season-long goal-scoring slump, managing one tally in a 22-game span. However, Montreal's captain has come alive in 2018 with goals in four consecutive games to boost his season total to 12. Montreal is nine points behind the second wild card spot, with five teams between the Habs and that final spot. What's more, the injuries are piling up. Phillip Danault was felled by a Zdeno Chara slap shot Saturday night and is out with a concussion, and Andrew Shaw has been lost indefinitely with a lower-body injury. The club claimed Logan Shaw off waivers from the Anaheim Ducks and he will join the team in Boston. Boston: "It's not easy to get a point in this league," Bruins forward Patrice Bergeron said after Monday's 3-2 OT loss vs. Dallas. "So you take the points. And the character we've shown, that's a positive." Rookie Jake DeBrusk had a goal and an assist and converted in the shootout against Montreal on Saturday, but he was among three players to miss Tuesday's practice. DeBrusk and defenseman Kevan Miller were "under the weather" but are expected to play Wednesday, head coach Bruce Cassidy said, while Noel Acciari is day-to-day with an upper-body injury. "I suspect that he would play tomorrow, but we’ll have a better idea on (Wednesday) morning,” Cassidy said of Acciari. The pick: Montreal head coach Claude Julien returns to Boston for the first time since he was fired by the Bruins last February. However, he faces a Boston team that is 9-0-3 in its last 12 and 18-3-4 in its last 25. Boton goalie Tuukka Rask has never had much success against Montreal (8-15-3 with a 2.52 goals-against average and .914 save percentage) but he's been 'on fire' as of late, entering on a 12-0-2 run. Meanwhile, Montreal's Carey Price is just 2-4-2 in his last eight starts. After going 37-20-5 (2.23 GAA & .923 SP) last season, he's 13-14-4 (2.95 GAA & .908 SP) this season. Let's make the Over a 10* play. |
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01-16-18 | Golden Knights v. Predators OVER 5.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -118 | 20 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: The Nashville Predators emerged as the best team in the West a year ago by advancing to the Stanley Cup Final but so far this season, the 25-11-6 Preds are sitting with 56 points and 'looking up' at the Winnipeg Jets in the Central Division. Both the Jets and Preds are looking up at the expansion Vegas Golden Knights in the Western Conference, as with a 29-10-3 record, Vegas leads not only the Pacific Division with its 61 points but the entire conference as well. The Golden Knights will visit Bridgestone Arena Tuesday night, after returning from their bye week with a 2-1 overtime home loss to Edmonton last Saturday night. This marks Nashville's first game since its league-mandated break. The Preds had lost six of eight (2-4-2) before winning their final two before the break, closing out a six-game road trip with a 4-3 win at Los Angeles and edging Edmonton 2-1. Vegas: The Golden Knights have been the "feel-good story" of the NHL in their inaugural campaign but "We weren't sharp. We didn't play our typical game," head coach Gerard Gallant said, attributing the team's third setback in 17 games (14-1-2) to the layoff. "The first game is tough to come back, but it will be good for us down the road." Vegas has converted on only 1 of 23 chances on the power play over the past nine games but it has killed off 23 straight short-handed situations since yielding a pair of man-advantage tallies back on Dec. 19. “When your PK is good, it starts with goaltending,” Gallant said. “We talk about special teams a lot. They can win you a lot of hockey games.” William Karlsson has scored eight of his team-high 23 goals in the past nine games, including one in each of the past three. James Neal, left unprotected by the Predators in the expansion draft, has 18 goals. Nashville:Leading scorer Filip Forsberg, expected to be sidelined four to six weeks after suffering a reported fractured hand on Dec. 29, resumed skating on his own Monday. However, that news was overshadowed after Viktor Arvidsson, the third-leading scorer, exited Monday's practice and appeared unable to put weight on one leg. Arvidsson, who had a breakout season with 31 goals in 2016-17, has 13 goals and 27 points in 41 games. The pick: The Predators take the ice tonight looking to avoid a three-game sweep in the season series vs. Vegas. Nashville dropped a 4-3 decision in a shootout at home to the Golden Knights on Dec. 8 and were blanked at Vegas 3-0 on Jan. The goalie matchup in goal is expected to be All-Stars Marc-Andre Fleury (9-2-2, 1.83 GAA & .942 SP) for Vegas and Pekka Rinne (21-8-3, 2.43 GAA & 925 SP) for Nashville, which may lead one to say "under." However, Nashville averages 3.47 GPG on home ice, while a "typical" Vegas road game has averaged 6 1/2 goals, Y-T-D. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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01-15-18 | Sharks v. Kings OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: The San Jose Sharks completed a 1-2-2 road trip before making a brief 'pit stop' at home by outlasting Arizona 6-5 in overtime at SAP Center on Saturday. The 22-13-6 Sharks head back out on the road Monday, as they begin a three-game road trip against the 24-14-5 Los Angeles Kings. The Kings have 53 points to the Sharks' 50 but enter this contest on a three-game losing streak after Saturday's 4-2 setback against Anaheim. That dropped them to 0-2-0 on their four-game homestand. Jonathan Quick has allowed 11 goals during the team's three-game skid. San Jose: Defenseman Marc-Edouard Vlasic scored the winner 2:42 into the extra session while Joonas Donskoi recorded two goals, including the game-tying tally with 16 seconds remaining in the third period. He also added an assist to lead four players with three-point performances for the Sharks, who halted their three-game slide (0-1-2). Joe Thornton recorded a goal and two assists Saturday, moving him one point ahead of Adam Oates (1,420) for 17th place on the all-time list. Reigning Norris Trophy winner Brent Burns, who leads the team with 33 points, has landed on the scoresheet in 13 of his last 15 contests, recording seven multi-point performances in that span. He will carry a five-game point streak (one goal, seven assists) into Monday's matchup. Los Angeles: The Kings trailed 3-0 early in the third period and rallied to within one score on goals by centers Anze Kopitar and Nick Shore but could not get equalizer against Anaheim goaltender John Gibson It was the team's third straight loss and the sixth of its last 10 (4-4-2). LA head coach John Stevens spoke about the Kings' uneven play after the loss to Anaheim, saying he needs more from the entire roster. The pick: The Sharks are looking for their third consecutive win over the Kings. San Jose dropped a 2-1 decision in Los Angeles on Oct. 7 but rallied for a 2-1 win on Nov. 12 at Staples Center and a 2-0 victory on Dec. 23 at HP Pavilion. After three tight, low-scoring games, look for that to change in this one. San Jose goaltender Martin Jones was pulled Saturday after allowing three goals on six shots, but is expected to be in net against the Kings (bad news for San Jose). As noted above, LA's Jonathan Quick has allowed 11 goals during the team's three-game skid and a loss here would match the longest of the season for Los Angeles. Staying away from calling for that but I will make the Over an 8* play. |
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01-15-18 | Hornets v. Pistons UNDER 205 | Top | 118-107 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: The 22-19 Detroit Pistons have yet to master the art of winning on the road (just 9-14) but they are 13-5 at home on the season and tonight against the 16-25 Charlotte Hornets, will look to extend their current home winning streak to six games. Detroit snapped a five-game road slide with a 114-80 rout of the Brooklyn Nets on Wednesday and had a chance to come home off a winning three-game road trip but they dropped the finale 107-105 at Chicago on Saturday. The Pistons are 2-4 their last six games, with all four losses on the road. The Hornets had a chance to end a three-game homestand with a winning mark but, like the Pistons, they dropped the finale 101-91 to the Oklahoma City Thunder on Saturday, while totaling 32 points in the second half. "It looked to me like we ran out of gas in that second half," associate head coach Stephen Silas told reporters after the game.Charlotte: The Hornets got excellent play from their backcourt duo of Walker and Batum last season but this year, while Walker has played pretty much the same (21.8 & 5.7 APG), Batum was sidelined early with an injury (has played just 27 of 41 games) and is down almost five PPG, from 15.1 to 10.2 Charlotte has failed to reach 100 points in either of its last two games and shot 39.8 percent from the floor in Saturday's setback. The backcourt combination of Walker and Batum combined to go 9-of-30 from the floor and committed nine of the team's 14 turnovers. Batum is battling through a particularly rough stretch while averaging 7.8 points on 31 percent shooting in the last four games and his backup, Jeremy Lamb (who has made 14 starts in place of Batum and is averaging 14.1 & 4.7 on the season), was only able to muster six points off the bench on Saturday.
Detroit: The Pistons have been erratic lately but continue to get strong performances from center Andre Drummond (14.6 & 15.0), who averaged 19.7 points and 16.3 rebounds on the three-game trip. Drummond (21 & 15) and SG Avery Bradley (26 points) were solid against the Bulls but leading scorer Tobias Harris (18.2 & 5.2) slumped to seven points on 3-of-14 shooting in Saturday's loss. Bradley (15.7) and PG Jackson (14.6 & 5.5 APG) form a nice starting backcourt but along with Harris and Drummond are the onlt Detroit players in double figures on the season. The pick: Detroit returns home to Little Caesars Arena tos play 14 of its next 17 games. That stretch begins with a matchup against the Charlotte Hornets, whom the Pistons defeated 102-90 in the inaugural regular-season game in the new building. Detroit rank just 25th in scoring but allows just 101.5 PPG, to rank 5th. With Charlotte struggling to score as of late (see above), expect the final to mirror the first meeting, when the teams combined to score only 192 points. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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01-14-18 | Flames v. Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 17 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up:The Calgary Flames own a six-game winning streak and at 24-16-4, are 'climbing up the ladder' in the Pacific Division standings with 52 points. They currently hold down third-place, just one point behind the LA Kings. Calgary is hoping to complete a four-game sweep of its current road trip when the Flames visit the 20-16-8 Carolina Hurricanes on Sunday afternoon. Carolina and its 48 points are tied for sixth in the Metropolitan, but only one point behind the New York Rangers and Pittsburgh Penguins for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Calgary:Johnny Gaudreau increased his team-leading point total to 52 by scoring in each of the last two games and has two goals and nine assists during a six-game point streak. Sean Monahan (team-high 21 goals) has also registered at least point in the last six contests with four goals and six assists during that span. Mike Smith (19-13-3, 2.50 AA & 922 SP) is expected to be in goal, after backup David Rittich made 41 saves in Friday's 4-2 victory over the Panthers. He is 4-0-0 (1.98 GAA & .938 SP) in four January starts but is only 3-10-4 (2.73 GAA & .918 lSP) in his career versus Carolina. Carolina: Sebastian Aho owns club highs of 16 goals and 37 points and comes in having scored in three straight games (he has nine goals in his last 10 contests). Lee Stempniak made his season debut Friday after missing the first 43 games because of upper-body injuries and recorded an assist. Elias Lindholm (12 goals, 25 points) and Joakim Nordstrom both missed Friday's game because of illness, while Derek Ryan (nine goals, 23 points) sat out with an upper-body injury. Center Jordan Staal (13 goals, 28 points this season) recorded his 200th career tally Friday to give him goals in consecutive games and three in his last four contests. The pick: Calgary has five days off after this contest, before beginning a three-game homestand. The Flames should be forewarned, as Carolina won the first of two meetings this season, 2-1 back on Oct. 19 in Calgary. Expect another low-scoring contest here, as Calgary's 17-game stretch of allowing three or fewer goals is the longest such streak in the NHL this season. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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01-13-18 | Thunder v. Hornets OVER 211 | Top | 101-91 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: Just when it looked as if the OKC Thunder were finding their groove, the team has lost three straight games, all by at least 11 points. Wednesday's 104-88 setback at Minnesota was the most lopsided of the bunch and the now 22-20 Thunder, who are just 1 1/2 games inside the West's playoff 'cut line,' will look to snap what's been an 'ugly' three-game skid by winning Saturday night in Charlotte. The 16-24 Hornets won 116-103 at Oklahoma City last month (Dec. 11) but then proceeded to lose five of their next six games. However, they've recovered to win five of their last eight, including Friday's 99-88 triumph over Utah in the second contest of their three-game homestand. Kemba Walker followed a 41-point performance in a loss to Dallas with 22 against the Jazz, as Charlotte improved to only 11-11 at home. Oklahoma City: "We've got to lock in and get a win," Thunder guard Russell Westbrook told reporters after recording 38 points and 10 rebounds in the recent loss to Minnesota. "That's all I can say." Westbrook is averaging 25.1-9.6-10.0, while George chips in 20.7 & 5.5 and Anthony (17.6 & 5.8). Is this combo really working? Oklahoma City is a lackluster 9-8 against teams that currently are seven or more games below .500, a group that will include the Hornets on Saturday. "We were just going out there and playing, and when we got punched, it was like, 'Oh, we got punched. Let's punch back. Let's start fighting back,'" Carmelo Anthony told reporters. "A lot of times when you give teams - those types of teams - that confidence, it's hard to fight out of that hole, because you have to make all the right plays, make every shot, and we can't rely on that." Anthony always seems to be well versed in why his teams are not be successful. Charlotte: Walker is averaging 24.8 points while making 39.5 percent of his three-point attempts over his last five games and he has made at least three 3-pointers in four consecutive home contests. Walker is having another very good season (21.8 & 5.8 APG) but while Dwight Howard is averaging a double-double on the season (15.5 & 12.2), wasn't he supposed to make this team better? As with the Thunder, just when things seemed to be trending in a positive direction, the Hornets dropped the opener of a three-game homestand, 115-111 to sad-sack Dallas on Wednesday night. Charlotte did bounce back with a 99-88 home win over Utah on Friday, but the game result took a back seat to better news the team received earlier in the day. Head coach Steve Clifford, who left the team on Dec. 6 for health reasons, announced he would return to his coaching duties starting Tuesday at practice. The pick: Westbrook has recorded at least a double-double in 12 consecutive contests but the Thunder continue to be an inconsistent group. They own excellent victories (as against Houston and Toronto around Christmas time), but regularly toss in ugly losses along the way (see above). Charlotte's Dec. 11 victory in OKC was its third consecutive win over the Thunder in a series that OKC has otherwise dominated, as the Thunder had won 11 straight before the three-game skid. There’s no doubt OKC has more talent than Charlotte plus going against the Hornets, who played last night and have gone just 18-42 at home when unrested the last six-plus seasons, could make sense. However, can we (anyone?) really trust OKC? I will say make the Over an 8* play. |
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01-13-18 | Falcons v. Eagles OVER 41 | Top | 10-15 | Loss | -115 | 137 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: Surely no one reading this would be unaware that the Atlanta Falcons led the New Patriots 28-3 in last year's Super Bowl before a monumental collapse led to the Patriots winning 34-28 in OT. No one knew quite what to expect from the Falcons in 2017 but it was hardly a surprise that the team struggled throughout the entire regular season. In fact, the Falcons were forced into a "must win" situation in Week 17 of this year in order to qualify for the NFC's final playoff berth as the No. 6 seed. However, Falcons began their quest to return to the Super Bowl as the NFC's representative last Saturday with a wire-to-wire 26-13 win over the Rams in Los Angeles. The Philadelphia Eagles boasted the NFL's top mark throughout much of the season and tied a franchise record with 13 wins but as everyone knows, the team was 11-2 when Carson Wentz was lost for the season due to injury. Nick Foles finished off that game against the Giants in style but looked very 'shaky' as the Eagles went 1-1 with him as as a starter (more in a bit). So, the Eagles find themselves as the first No. 1 seed to enter its opening playoff game as an underdog in league history. Atlanta: QB Matt Ryan (personal reasons) and WR Julio Jones (ankle, ribs) both missed practice Tuesday but are expected to start on Saturday. Ryan was 21 of 30 for 218 yards and a touchdown in the 13-point win over the Rams., giving him his first road playoff win in three starts. Jones reeled in nine receptions for 94 yards and a TD grab last week. The Falcons also possess a potent RB tandem in Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman (combined for 1,493 rushing yards and 12 TDs this season). PK Matt Bryant nailed four FGs against the Rams and the Atlanta defense held the Rams (the league's highest-scoring team in the regular season at 29.9 PPG, to just one TD and 13 points. Speaking of that Atlanta defense, it has stepped up its game by allowing just 16.3 PPG over its last six games. Philadelphia" Without Wentz, it's difficult to note Philly's offensive numbers during the regular season. Foles was outstanding in relief of Wentz vs. the Giants (24 of 38 with four TD passes) but was a combined 23 of 49 for 202 yards (one TD / two INTs) in Weeks 16 & 17. He hasn't given Philly's fickle fans much to cheer by leading the Eagles to just 16 points in their last nine quarters. Philly does have a solid running game though, averaging 132.3 YPG on the ground (3rd-best). The Philly defense has been terrific all season and comes in ranked 4th in scoring (18.4 PPG) and total D (306.5 YPG). Philly's No. 1 rush D (79.2 YPG) will be a real test for Atlanta's running game. The pick: The Eagles can silence the critics on Saturday when they host the sixth-seeded Atlanta Falcons at Lincoln Financial Field, where they went 7-1 SU As alluded to above, the Eagles are the first top seed to be a home dog in the Division Round since the seeding system was introduced in 1975. However, last season's NFL MVP, Matt Ryan told reporters after the win over the Rams, "We're not here just to get here. We want to make noise while we're here." Ryan had just recorded his fifth consecutive playoff game with at least a 100.0 passer rating in Atlanta's 26-13 win over the Los Angeles Rams Motivation abounds on both sides and while Foles is no Ryan, he did have that 'magical' 2013 season for Philly back in 2013 when he threw 27 TDs and just two INTs (119.2 QB rating) in 13 games. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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01-12-18 | Canucks v. Blue Jackets OVER 5.5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 110 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: The Vancouver Canucks have struggled to a 16-21-6 mark and the team's 38 points leaves them well out of playoff position at the moment (2nd-lowest point total in the Western Conference). The Canucks fell to 0-2-1 on their current seven-game road trip with Tuesday's 3-1 setback at Washington and will be in Columbus tonight to take on the Blue Jackets, looking for their first road victory since winning in Nashville back on Nov. 30 (0-4-2 run away from home since that triumph). The 25-17-3 Columbus Blue Jackets have 53 points, leaving them four points back of the first-place Washington Caps in the top-heavy Metropolitan Division. Columbus is looking to bounce back after dropping a 3-1 decision at Buffalo on Thursday, after having won two straight and three of four. Columbus has performed well at home of late, capturing four of its last five contests at Nationwide Arena, while going 15-7-0 on home ice this season. Vancouver: Daniel Sedin has notched two goals and two assists over the first three games of the Canucks' road trip, netting the lone tally against the Capitals to reach double digits in goals (10) for the 16th time in his 17 NHL seasons. Brock Boeser was selected to participate in the All-Star Game later this month in Tampa Bay at the age of 20, becoming the third-youngest Canuck and second rookie in franchise history (Dale Tallon, 1971) to be chosen. Boeser has captured back-to-back NHL Rookie of the Month honors and leads Vancouver - and all league rookies - in points (40), goals (22) and power-play tallies (six). Daniel's brother, Henrik, has just two goals bt leads the team with 27 assists. Columbus: Artemi Panarin recorded the lone goal in the loss at Buffalo, extending his team scoring lead to 37 points. Alexander Wennberg returned to the lineup Thursday after missing eight games with a back injury. He hadn't played since Dec. 21, when he was kept off the scoresheet at Pittsburgh after collecting two goals and three assists during a four-game point streak. Panarin, who reached the 30-goal plateau while with Chicago in each of his first two NHL seasons, trails Josh Anderson (14) by two for the team lead. The pick: This marks the Blue Jackets' final game before their five-day break and they'd like to go into it on a positive note after the loss in Buffalo. "We've got to bounce back," Blue Jackets center Pierre-Luc Dubois said. "That's what's fun about back-to-backs. The next day you get to bounce back and play a better game. We've got the break coming up and we want to finish off with a win." Vancouver should play the perfect foil, entering this contest having lost five straight contests overall (0-4-1), last winning on Dec. 28 versus Chicago. The Canucks have allowed four-plus goals in three of their last five games and on the season, the etam's 3.26 GPG average ranks 27th of 31 teams. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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01-11-18 | Flames v. Lightning OVER 5.5 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: The Calgary Flames have pushed their way back into serious playoff contention with four straight wins (all one-goal games!), after Dougie Hamilton’s overtime goal gave them a 3-2 victory at Minnesota on Tuesday. They are now 22-16-4 (48 points) on the season. The term "playoff contenders" hardly describes what the Tampa Bay Lightning have accomplished so far in the 2017-18, as the Lightning welcome the Flames to Amelie Arena where they have earned points in 18 of their 21 games this season (17-3-1), after edging visiting Carolina 5-4 on Tuesday. Tampa is 31-9-3 on the season overall and its 65 points are eight more than any other Eastern Conference team and five points more than the West's top team, the Vegas Golden Knights! Calgary: “These last 40-some games are extremely important, and we’ve put ourselves in a good spot to push to make playoffs here,” Calgary right wing Johnny Gaudreau, who was named to the All-Star Game on Wednesday, told reporters. “If we keep playing the way we’ve been playing the last few games here, we can go (through) the road trip and into the (upcoming) break feeling pretty good about ourselves." Calgary leans heavily on Gaudreau, who has 13 goals and 36 assists for a team-high 49 points. Goaltender Mike Smith, who spent parts of four seasons with Tampa Bay, has not allowed more than three goals in the last 12 games and stopped 33 of 35 shots in Tuesday’s victory. “I don’t think we’re in these games if it’s not for him,” Dougie Hamilton told reporters of Smith, who owns a .921 save percentage overall. Tampa Bay: Nikita Kucherov leads the league with 60 points but fellow forward Tyler Johnson has been a major factor of late while putting up 12 goals and 11 assists with a plus-18 in his last 17 games after scoring a hat trick Tuesday. “We made a switch with lines and I’ve found chemistry to (Brayden) Point and (Ondrej) Palat,” Johnson said. “Things have just kind of taken off and it’s really fun playing with those guys.” Defenseman Victor Hedman recorded 16 of his 33 points in the last 14 games and boasts a plus-22 rating since Dec. 1 and was named to the All-Star Game along with Kucherov, captain Steven Stamkos and goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy (NHL-best 27 wins). Kucherov, who shares the NHL lead with Alex Ovechkin at 27 goals, has built a four-game point streak and Stamkos owns three assists in that span to push his season total to a team-high 35. The pick: Tampa Bay ranks first in the league in scoring (3.67 GPG) and third on the power play (converting 24.7%), even though they've won their last two games -- 5-2 at Detroit and 5-4 against Carolina -- without going on the power play. Here at home, Tampa Bay averages 3.86 GPG and I expect this game to go "over the total." Make the Over a 10* play. |
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01-10-18 | Hawks v. Nuggets OVER 215.5 | Top | 110-97 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: The Atlanta Hawks opened the season having made 10 consecutive playoff appearances, the second-longest active run in the NBA. In contrast, the Denver Nuggets opened the season off four consecutive losing seasons and unsurprisingly, no postseason appearances in that span. Talk about franchises going in opposite directions. The Hawks roster "looks nothing" like last year's and Atlanta heads to Denver tonight with a 10-30 record, the worst mark of any NBA team. Meanwhile, the Nuggets check in at 21-19, good enough for the No. 7 seed in the West (only ONE game out of the No. 5 seed!). Atlanta: The Hawks have reached the midway point of the season on pace for a 61-loss season, following Monday’s 108-107 setback at the LA Clippers. The Hawks trailed by 11 at halftime but rallied to take a two-point lead with 23 seconds left, before surrendering C.J. Williams' game-winning three-pointer with nine seconds to go. So what else is new? PG Dennis Schroder leads the Hawks in scoring at 19.8 PPG and is handing out 6.5 assists per contest, as well (tied for 11th in the NBA). Taurean Prince led Atlanta with 20 points Monday and finished 4-for-8 from three-point range, one night after dislocating his right ring finger in a loss to the LA Lakers. Prince (13.0 & 5.6) leads group of six other double digit scorers behind Schroder, which includes impressive 6-10 rookie John Collins (10.9 & 6.9) out of Wake Forest. Denver: The Nuggets have played their best basketball this season at home, winning 14 of 18 games. This contest opens a stretch in which they enjoy 11 of the next 14 contests at the Pepsi Center. The Nuggets enter Wednesday in seventh place in the Western Conference standings (again, just one game out of fifth) but the Nuggets have dropped four of their last six despite battling to the end in Monday's 124-114 loss at Golden State. "We never quit working,” Denver head coach Michael Malone told reporters Monday after the Nuggets pulled within six points with 1:26 to go after trailing by 18 with 7:17 remaining. “We forced them to bring their starters back in. We forced them to finish that game out.” Gary Harris and Nikola Jokic each scored 22 points against the Warriors while Jamal Murray and Trey Lyles added 21 apiece as the quartet combined for 75.4 percent of Denver’s offense. Harris (16.7) leads the team in scoring and Murray is second at 16.2 PPG. Center Jokic (15.9 & 7.6) has been excellent up front and as for Lyles (up to 10.7 & 4.9 on the season), he's made the most of extra "PT" with PF Millsap (15.3 & 6.2) sidelined. Lyles averaged 14.7 PPG in December and has upped that to 20.5 PPG through four January games. The pick; The Hawks are a poor defensive team. allowing 108.5 PPG (25th) on 47.6% shooting (29th). Atlanta is a woeful 3-19 SU on the road, while allowing 109.9 PPG. That hardly bodes well against a Denver team which ranks 8th in both scoring (107.6 PPG) and FG percentage (46.5%). As noted, Denver is 14-4 SU at home but let me add that the Nuggets also up their scoring at the Pepsi Center, averaging 111.7 PPG. Make the Over an 8* |
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01-08-18 | Alabama v. Georgia OVER 45 | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 148 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: The SEC has been CFB's unquestioned top conference for some time now and it's only fitting that the 2017 SEC champion Georgia Bulldogs will square off in this year's CFP national championship game against their SEC rivals, the Alabama Crimson Tide. The winner will claim the national title for the ninth time in the past 12 seasons for the SEC. That said, the Bulldogs will be looking to win their first national title since the Herschel Walker-led team won the 1980 crown, while the Crimson Tide are striving for their fifth during Nick Saban's amazing 11-season tenure at Alabama. The Georgia Bulldogs are coming off a 54-48 double-overtime victory over the Oklahoma Sooners (arguably the best and most exciting game of the 2017 season, to-date), while Alabama left no doubt that it was fully deserving of being included in this year's 'Final 4' (despite not even winning the SEC West), by completely dominating No. 1 Clemson 24-6. Georgia: The Bulldogs fell behind Oklahoma 31-14 but then scored the game's next 24 points to take a 38-31 lead. Oklahoma re-took the lead 45-38 but Georgia sent the game to OT tied at 45-all. After exchanging FGs in the first OT, Georgia blocked Oklahoma's FG attempt in the second OT and clinched a spot in the title game on Sony Michel's 27-yard TD run. Michel ran for 181 yards (16.5 YPC and 3 TDs) while Nick Chubb ran for 145 yards (10.4 YPC & 2 TDs). Georgia's freshman QB Jake Fromm has been seen a possible weak link for Georgia but he was 20-29 for 210 yards (2 TDs / 0 INTs) against Oklahoma, after going 16 of 22 for 183 yards (2 TDs & 0 INTs in the SEC title game vs. Auburn. No defense is capable of stopping Oklahoma's offense (Georgia allowed 48 points and over 500 yards) but note that Georgia entered the Rose Bowl matchup allowing just 13.2 PPG on 270.9 YPG. Alabama: Speaking of defense, how about 'Bama's? The Crimson Tide stepped up last week and looked like the Alabama Crimson Tide of old, playing physical, nasty defense and doing just enough offensively to pull away. Make no mistake about it. Alabama won that game with its defense, giving the offense a short field with an interception and then getting a pick six. Alabama entered its game with Clemson allowing an FBS-low 11.5 PPG on 258.9 YPG and held Clemson to 188 totals yards (64 rushing yards) and six points. BTW, Clemson came in averaging 35.4 PPG and almost 450 YPG , including 244.1 YPG on the ground. Jalen Hurts continues to be under appreciated, but while he threw for just 120 yards he had two TD passes and did not throw an INT in 24 attempts. Hurts has passed for more than 200 yards in only two games this season but the Tide scored 37.9 PPG, and a multi-headed rushing attack ranks 10th nationally led by slashing RB Damien Harris (983 YR & 7.6 YPC / 11 TDs) and slamming 235-lb. Bob Scarbrough 573 YR / 4.8 YPC & 8 TDs). Plus, the elusive Hurts added another 808 YR (5.5 YPC & 8 TDs). Hurts is more feared as a runner but has 17 touchdown passes against just one interception (248 attempts) and enters this contest 27-2 as a starting QB. The pick: Nick Saban will meet his former DC in Georgia's Kirby Smart, who is adamant that it doesn't give him crucial insights to the methods of the Crimson Tide. "There's not a lot of tendencies that he has that are just going to be ground-breaking to allow us a benefit," Smart said during a press conference. "The bottom line is our players got to go out and we've got to play a really good football game to stay with these guys." Saban also downplayed the situation, saying "I don't think the game is about the coaches. I think it's about the players." Aabama leads the nation in rushing defense at 92.8 YPG and will receive a big test from Georgia's senior duo of Nick Chubb (1,320 yards) and Sony Michel (1,129) bu that's what we thought against Clemson's running game, too. Athens may be in the same state as Atlanta but don't think this venue creates an edge for Georgia. The Crimson Tide are 6-0 in the Georgia capital overall since 2014. "We treat Atlanta like it's our home," Alabama linebacker Mack Wilson said. "We win a lot of games there." Should I close with the fact that Saban is 11-0 SU in his career vs. his former assistant coaches? Maybe, but instead, I expect to see a score closer to the Rose Bowl final than to what we saw in the Sugar Bowl. This total is TOO low. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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01-08-18 | Blue Jackets v. Maple Leafs OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: The Toronto Maple Leafs ended a three-game slide with a pair of shootout victories over San Jose and Vancouver to reach 25-16-2. They continue a six-game homestand (2-1-0 so far) when they welcome the 24-16-3 Columbus Blue Jackets to the Air Canada Centre. Columbus won for only the second time in six games (2-3-1) as it outlasted Florida 3-2 in an eight-round shootout on Sunday. Toronto will try to avenge a 4-2 loss at Columbus back on Dec. 20 and break a string in which the Blue Jackets have won five of six in the series. Columbus: Rookie center Pierre-Luc Dubois notched a goal and an assist. in Sunday's win, becoming the fifth player to reach the 20-point plateau for Columbus thi season (Dubois has nine goals & 12 assists). Left wing Artemi Panarin snapped a three-game drought with his team-leading 35th point Sunday, while defenseman Seth Jones had a pair of assists in the shootout win to tie forward Oliver Bjorkstrand for second on the team with 26 points and boasts four goals while setting up seven others in his past 12 contests. Toronto: "Whenever you get down and come back, it builds a lot of confidence within the group,” Maple Leafs center Tyler Bozak told reporters after scoring the tying goal and the deciding tally in the shootout Saturday. “It’s not an easy thing to do, to come back in this league, so it’s nice to be able to do that and build our confidence.” The Maple Leafs impressively rallied from two goals down to edge Vancouver in that one. Center Auston Matthews has scored four times in the last four games and owns six in seven since coming back from an upper-body injury. He leadis the team in goals (19) and points (33) overall. Toronto defenseman Travis Dermott, a second-round pick in 2015, made his NHL debut Saturday and finished with an assist, one shot and two hits in 12:03 of ice time. “I thought he was confident, moved the puck, skated good, looks like he has good hockey sense,” coach Mike Babcock told reporters of the 21-year-old. “It looked like the (overall) situation didn’t intimidate him at all.” The pick: In Bobrovsky and Andersen we have two excellent goalies but I look for this game to surprise and go over the total. |
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01-07-18 | Panthers v. Saints OVER 48 | Top | 26-31 | Win | 100 | 120 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: The Mercedes-Benz Superdome will be the site of the last of four NFL wild card games this weekend. The Carolina Panthers and the New Orleans Saints both finished 11-5 in 2017 but New Orleans won both regular season meetings, earning the Saints home field advantage for this contest. After opening 0-2, the Saints won 34-13 at Carolina in Week 3, jump-starting an eight game winning streak. The Panthers were just 4-3 after seven games but won seven of their final nine but the team's 31-21 Week 13 loss at New Orleans plus a 22-10 Week 17 loss in Atlanta, cost Carolina a chance to host this wild card contest. Conventional wisdom states that "it's hard to beat the same team three times in one season." However, teams that swept the regular-season series also won the playoff rematch 13 out of 20 times since 1970. So here we are. Carolina: Cam Newton threw for for just 180 yards with one TD and three interceptions on 14-of-34 passing in the Week 17 loss in Atlanta. Newton clearly needs to bring his "A game" to this contest as he's basically a one-man show. He's far off his MVP numbers of 2015 (59.1% with a 22-16 ratio and an 80.7 QB rating) but Newton 's 754 rushing yards (5.4 YPC and six TDs) is a team high and his effectiveness is the main reason why Carolina ranks 4th in rushing on the season at 131.4 YPG. Stewart is the leading RB with 680 yards but he averages only 3.4 YPG. Rookie McCaffrey has added 435 yards (3 TDs) but his biggest contribution is his team-leading 80 catches (5 TDs). Devin Funchess is the team's best (only?) WR, with 63 catches and a team high 8 TD grabs. Carolina's D is allowing 20.4 PPG (11th) on 317.1 YPG (7th). New Orleans: Discussions surrounding the Saints always start (and mostly end) with Drew Brees. However, things have changed in 2017. It's not that Brees has not been terrific but rather that the Saints' ground game and much-maligned defense, have made major improvements. The seemingly ageless Brees will turn 39 on Jan. 15 and had another 4,000-plus passing season (4,334 yards) and completed 72.0% of his passes. His TDs were down (23) but he threw just eight INTs and his QB rating checks in at 103.9. Anyone hear lately how the Saints made a mistake in sending A.P. to the Cards? Ingram ran for 1,234 yards (4.9 YPC & 12 TDs), while rookie RN Kamara ran for 728 yards (6.1 YPC & 8 TDs) plus caught 81 passes for another five TDs. Then there is the New Orleans' D, which after allowing 29.8 and 28.4 PPG the last two seasons, allowed just 20.4 PPG (10th) in 2017. The pick: The Panthers haven't been able to slow the Saints in either of the two regular season meetings (allowed 34 and 31 points) and why should the Saints struggle to score here? After all, the Saints are 7-1 SU at home, averaging 31.0 PPG. That said, I expect Newton to be effective in this, his first postseason game since he and his team was dominated by the Broncos' D in the Super Bowl after the 2015 season. I'll stay away from the side but will make the Over an 8* play. |
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01-07-18 | Sharks v. Jets OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -102 | 14 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: The Winnipeg Jets were 40-35-7 last season and missed the Stanley Cup Playoffs. However, they have played well throughout the first 42 games of the 2017-18 NHL season, going 24-11-7 (55 points), which has them in first-place in the West's Central Division. The Jets won for the fourth time in five games overall and improved to 15-3-1 on home ice with a 4-3 victory Friday over Buffalo. They now welcome the 21-12-6 San Jose Sharks to Bell MTS Place. The Sharks couldn't hold a 5-2 lead after two periods Friday at Ottawa, surrendering three goals in the third period before falling 6-5 in overtime. “There are no easy points on the road,” Sharks head coach Peter DeBoer told the media after San Jose dropped to 1-1-2 on a road trip that ends Sunday. San Jose's 48 points are currently good enough for third in the Pacific Division. San Jose: Center Logan Couture recorded three assists Friday, his first points since returning to the lineup Dec. 31, following a head injury. Defenseman Brent Burns has 22 points in his past 20 games after recording a goal and an assist against. Brett Burns, the reigning Norris Trophy winner, is starting to heat up with a goal and three assists in his last three games, He shares the team lead in points (29) with Couture, who has a team-high 15 goals but hasn't scored a goal in seven games. The Sharks are concerned about their recent goalie play and started backup goaltender Aaron Dell against the Senators, as starter Martin Jones has surrendered six goals on 50 shots over his last two outings. Winnipeg: Center Blake Wheeler finished with a goal and an assist.Friday. He has five goals and eight points in five games since moving from forward to center for the injured Mark Scheifele. Defenseman Dustin Byfuglien snapped a 33-game goal drought with his first of the season on Friday. Goaltender Connor Hellebuyck, the reigning NHL first star of the week, is 6-0-2 in his past eight games with a .936 save percentage and a 1.97 goals against average. The set-up: The Sharks are one of only two teams to shut out the Jets this season, winning 4-0 in San Jose back on Nov. 25. However don't expect the Jets to be shut out here. Winnipeg ranks fourth in scoring at 3.31 GPG and its power play percentage of 24.8%, ranks second. I noted Winnipeg's great home record (a reminder above) and will add here that the Jets are averaging 4.11 GPG on home ice. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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01-06-18 | Wild v. Avalanche OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 22 h 11 m | Show |
The set-up: The Colorado Avalanche were far and away the NHL's worst team last season, as the team's 48 points were 21 fewer than the next-lowest point total of any other team (Vancouver had 69 points on the season). However, the Avalanche are far from the NHL's worst team so far in the 2017-18 season, sitting 21-16-3 (45 points) at about the mid-point of the season. Colorado managed only just 22 victories in 2016-17 but enter this contest at home vs. the Wild on a four-game winning streak. A fifth consecutive win and the Avs would match last year's win total for the entire season. The Wild are no pushovers, as they come in playing some of their best hockey of the campaign, winning four of their last five games, plus are as healthy as they have been all season after Nino Niederreiter returned from a five-game absence due to an ankle injury to register a hat trick in Thursday’s 6-2 win over Buffalo. Minnesota is 22-16-3 with 47 points (one point out of the West's final wild card spot). Minnesota: Devan Dubnyk has allowed a total of five goals while posting three victories since returning from a lower-body injury to pass Manny Fernandez (113) for second place on the franchise wins list. Eric Staal has scored three of his team-leading 17 goals in his last five games (he also leads the team with 35 points), while Mikael Granlund has registered eight points in the same span to push his season total to 30. Jared Spurgeon has been quite productive of late, collecting a goal and five assists over his last five contests (now has 21 points) to give the Wild three defensemen with at least 21 points. Ryan Suter (24) and Matt Dumba (21) are the others. Colorado: Nathan MacKinnon is among the league's scoring leaders after recording two goals and seven assists in his last four games, pushing his team-high total to 49 points. Mikko Rantanen continues to pile up points as well, notching 16 of his 38 in his last 13 contests, while Landeskog has collected 12 (six goals) in his last nine games to increase his season total to 31. Jonathan Bernier (8-7-1, .906 save percentage) started in place of the injured Semyon Varlamov (lower body) on Thursday, turning aside 34 shots en route to his second shutout of the season, and is expected to be in net against Minnesota. The pick: Both teams enter brimming with confidence but I'll note that Minnesota is allowing 3.48 GPG on the road, while Colorado;s averaging 3.80 GPG at home. That spells a 10* play on the Over for me. |
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01-04-18 | Golden Knights v. Blues OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: Right from the opening of the season (Vegas came out of the gate 8-1-0), the Golden Knights have been the feel-good story of the 2017-18 season. Vegas will visit St. Louis tonight having won eight straight, while boasting a 13-game point streak (12-0-1). Both are NHL records for a first-year club, giving the expansion team a 27-9-2 (56 points) record, good enough for first place in the Pacific Division (only the Lightning, with 60 points, have a better record in the entire NHL). The 25-15-2 (52 points) St. Louis Blues sit in second-place in the Central Division, just one point behind Winnipeg. The Blues have hopefully righted the ship with two straight victories, following a 2-7-0 stretch. Vegas: With the team's 3-0 win over Nashville on Tuesday, Vegas improved to a spectacular 17-2-1 at home. ""We just keep playing our game and have good success," Golden Knights head coach Gerard Gallant told reporters after the win. "It's about competing and getting ready for the next game. If we keep playing the kind of hockey we're playing, we're going to win a lot of hockey games." Jonathan Marchessault (team-high 37 points) signed a six-year, $30 million contract extension Wednesday and has scored in three straight contests. He owns a seven-game point streak (five goals, six assists). He's getting plenty of help, as Vegas has five players with 10 or more goals. William Karlsson (club-best 20 goals) has five tallies in his last five contests, James Neal (17) has gone five games without scoring after recording one in three straight contests and Erik Haula, who played his 300th career game Tuesday, has 14. St. Louis: Vladimir Tarasenko now shares the team lead in goals with Brayden Schenn after scoring his 17th of the season in Tuesday's 3-2 shootout victory over New Jersey. Schenn (club-high 41 points) has only two goals and two assists in 12 games since Jaden Schwartz was lost with an ankle injury scoring just once in the past 11 contests. Vladimir Sobotka registered his eighth goal of the season Tuesday and is one shy of matching his career high set in 2013-14. In net, Carter Hutton might be the backup goalie on the St. Louis Blues depth chart but he's certainly playing like a No. 1. He is 11-3-0, with a 1.88 goals-against average, a .937 save percentage, and one shutout in his last 14 starts. The pick: Marc-Andre Fleury is back healthy for Vegas (8-1-1, 1.77 GAA & .943 SP), so at first blush, it may seem like an Under with Hutton on a roll, as well. However, Vegas is a different team on the road (10-7-1) and a typical road game this season for the Golden Knights averages just slightly over 6 1/2 goals. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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01-03-18 | Warriors v. Mavs OVER 216 | Top | 125-122 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: The Warriors are well aware that wins and losses in December are not 'life and death. Golden State made sure to wait until Stephen Curry was 100 percent before bringing him back from an ankle injury, keeping him out for 11 straight games (Warriors were 9-2 in that span). Curry certainly appeared healthy in his first game back going 12-of-17 from the floor in 26 minutes (including 10-of-13 from three-point range), while scoring 38 points in Saturday's 141-128 win over the Memphis Grizzlies. "I was just happy to be back out there with my guys," Curry told reporters. "You sit and watch for 11 games, you just wonder what it's going to be like to get back out there, and I finally got that opportunity. I really didn't know what to expect. I just wanted to get some good reps, get up and down, see how my wind was and, surprisingly, I think my body felt way better than I expected." The Warriors' 29-8 record is an NBA-best as they visit the 13-25 Dallas Maverick. It's been a rough start for Dallas but the Mavs do welcome the Warriors to town on the heels of a four-game winning streak. Dallas is back home after an impressive (surprising?) three-game road trip in which the Mavs bested the Indiana Pacers, New Orleans Pelicans and Oklahoma City Thunder. "We're playing better, and we're doing better in these situations," Dallas head coach Rick Carlisle told reporters after his team held off the Thunder 116-113. "Guys just hung together and found a way to close it out, and it's not easy with those three superstars that they've got. But we did it as a team with stops, made some big plays, and it will be a happy new year." Dallas: The Mavs' four wins have come by an average of five PPG but a ":W" is a "W." Rookie PG Dennis Smith Jr. is one reason the team is beginning to pull out close games. Smith recorded his first career triple-double in Friday's win at New Orleans and followed that up with 19 points and six assists in the victory over the Thunder. "(Smith) was great tonight," Carlisle told reporters after beating Oklahoma City. "He finished the game with a couple of big baskets and some big free throws.Smith is averaging 13.8-4.1-4.3 on the season and is the team's second-leading scorer. SF Harrison Barnes (18.4 & 6.7) leads the team in scoring (like last year) and while Dirk (12.1 & 5.7) is not the player he once was, his presence is a plus. Guards Barea, Harris and Matthews are also all in double digits, with backup PG Ferrell just missing at 9.9 PPG. The pick: The Warriors have won the last eight in the series (including a 112-97 home win on Dec. 14), as Dallas' problem is trying to keep up with the Warriors on the scoreboard. The math just doesn't work. The Warriors average 115.2 PPG (2nd0 on 50.8% shooting (1st), including 39.0% on threes (also 1st). Meanwhile, Dallas averages just 101.0 PPG (27th) and must try to match Golden State basket-for-basket going against a defense holding opponents to an NBA-low 43.0% from the floor. Do not expect Dallas to in any way contain Golden State but I will note that Dallas has scored 100-plus points in five of its last seven (two misses came when the team scord 98 points), including ringing up 128 and 116 points in the team's last two outings. Make the Over an 8* play. |
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01-02-18 | Blue Jackets v. Stars OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: The Columbus Blue Jackets will be in Dallas to take on the Stars, as both teams take the ice tonight with identical 22-15-3 records and 47 points. Columbus is tied with the NY Rangers for third-place in the Metropolitan Division, while the Stars find them selves in fourth-place in the Ventral Division. However, Columbus enters this contest beginning to show the effects of having three of its top nine forwards and a top-four defenseman out with injuries, by losing three in a row (0-2-1) and managing just two wins in its last eight outings (2-4-2). In contrast, the Stars' top performers are doing their jobs and the supporting actors are chipping in as Dallas is climbing up the standings in its division by notching at least a point in six of its last seven games (4-2-1). Tonight, the Stars look to continue that trend and earn a fifth straight victory.
Columbus: “No one’s coming to help us,” Blue Jackets captain Nick Foligno told reporters after the 5-0 loss to Tampa Bay on Sunday. “No one’s feeling sorry for us. The league keeps coming. We’ve got to find a way out of it. It starts with our mentality of who we are as a team.” Columbus won’t have forwards Cam Atkinson (foot), Alexander Wennberg (back) and Brandon Dubinsky (facial fracture) back in the near future while defenseman Ryan Murray (upper-body) could return soon. Left wing Artemi Panarin registered 18 of his team-high 34 points in 15 games during December and reportedly skated with Foligno and rookie Pierre-Luc Dubois as coach John Tortorella shuffled his top two lines at practice Monday. Josh Anderson, who owns a team-high 14 goals, dropped down to team with Sonny Milano and Boone Jenner on the second forward unit. Dallas: The Stars come in 13-6-2 over their last 21 games. Leading scorer Jamie Benn (37 points including 16 goals) owns a six-game point streak, while Tyler Seguin (team- high 19 goals) has five goals in the last five contests. Goaltender Ben Bishop (of Tampa Bay fame) is finding he likes Dallas just fine, boasting a .946 save percentage over his past five outings for . “I think the fans are starting to see that this is a team that has an identity,” Stars head coach Ken Hitchcock told reporters after Sunday’s 6-0 victory over San Jose. “They can see it on the ice, they can see the way we play, and I think they’re really into what we’re doing right now." The pick: Bishop is now 17-10-2 on the season with a 2.55 GAA and .914 SP. However, his opposite number, Sergei Bobrovsky, has just one win (1-2-2) and an .896 save percentage over his last five games..Columbus has allowed 14 goals over its past three games and the Blue Jackets are 3-5-2 over their past 10 games. Meanwhile, the Stars are 14-4-1 on home ice, one of the NHL's best home records, where they are averaging 3.58 GPG. make the Over a 10* play. |
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01-01-18 | Sabres v. Rangers OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: The Buffalo Sabres hosted the first Winter Classic back in 2008 and will participate in the event exactly 10 years later on Monday afternoon, when they take on the New York Rangers in frigid temperatures at Citi Field in Queens (it was 10 degrees last night in Times Square for New Year's Rockin' Eve!). The 10-20-8 Sabres are at the bottom of the Eastern Conference with 28 points but have been playing better hockey of late with points in three of their last four games. Meanwhile, the 20-13-5 New York Rangers have earned points in six of their last seven games (4-1-2). The Rangers' 45 points leave them fourth in the top-heavy Metropolitan Division but New York would qualify as a wild card if the season ended right now. The Sabres lost 2-1 in a shootout against Pittsburgh in the inaugural Classic, while the Rangers are making their second appearance in the Winter Classic as well, having beaten Philadelphia 3-2 in the 2012 outdoor event. Buffalo: Head coach Phil Housley said there is a good vibe around the team and Buffalo is coming off an exciting 4-3, come-from-behind overtime victory at New Jersey on Friday. The hottest player in the league could be Sabres center Jack Eichel, who has scored seven goals in his past six games. Eichel scored two goals Friday, giving him 15 this season. "Most kids, I think, dream of playing in this game, and I was no different," said Eichel, who brings a four-game point-scoring streak into Monday. "I am just so excited to be a part of it." He has taken over the scoring lead (1 5goals & 35 points). LW Evander Kane has registered 11 of his 34 points in the last 12 contests. He also has 15 goals. NY Rangers: New York will be without Chris Kreider, who is tied for second on the team with 11 goals, for about two months due to a blood clot in his right arm. Mats Zuccarello (team-high 29 points) has not landed on the scoresheet in three games, J.T. Miller has notched one point in five contests, Pavel Buchnevich has gone without a goal for seven matches and Mika Zibanejad is pointless in his last seven outings. New York will need the previously mentioned players and others, to step up.The Rangers are relying a lot on Henrik Lundqvist (422 career wins), who went 5-3-2 with a .936 save percentage in December. The pick: The Rangers sit just six points out of first place in the Metropolitan Division but they are also just five points above the bottom! This may be a showcase game for the NHL but the Rangers need the two points! Lundqvist is a perfect 3-0-0 with a 2.00 goals-against average and a .933 save percentage in outdoor games but I'm expecting this to be an entertaining game with enough goals to make the Over a 10* play. |
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12-31-17 | Nets v. Celtics OVER 209.5 | Top | 105-108 | Win | 100 | 20 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: Star FA acquisition Gordon Hayward was lost in Boston's season opener (a close loss at Cleveland) but got off to a blistering 22-4 start, anyway. However, with the Houston Rockets coming to the TD Garden this past Thursday, the Celtics were in a bit of rut, having gone just 6-6 in their previous 12 games. The Rockets jumped out to a 32-12 lead over the Celtics after the first quarter but then that old "Boston Celtic magic" came into play. The Celtics pulled off the biggest NBA comeback of the season, rallying from 26 points down in the third quarter and leading only once, on Al Horford's basket with 3.7 seconds left in the game, which gave teh Celtics a 99-98 win! The Celtics will try to avoid a letdown from a phenomenal comeback win when they host the 13-22 Brooklyn Nets on Sunday. The Nets have been a busy team, with five games in an eight-day stretch, including four straight on the road capped by Friday's 111-87 victory in Miami, which represents Brooklyn's second-largest margin of victory this season. Brooklyn: "We weren't perfect but we were more perfect than the other night," coach Kenny Atkinson told reporters after Friday's, referring to a 15-point loss at New Orleans two nights earlier. "The challenge for us is to do it more consistently. That's what we're searching for." Brooklyn's most consistent performer of late has been forward Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (14.8 & 6.3), who made 8-of-9 shots and had 18 points and eight rebounds at Miami. The third-year pro is averaging 16.5 points and 8.3 boards over the last six games and recorded multiple steals in his last two contests. Jefferson is one of six Nets averaging in double digits. This team also knows about losing key players to injury, as Jeremy Lin was lost for the season in the team's season opener and DeAngelo Russell (team's leading scorer at 20.9 PPG through 12 games) was lost to a knee injury. The good news is, he appears to still be on track to return sometime in early-to-mid-January. Boston: "I've had a few comebacks, but this is a special one. From just how we started, it was just so ugly," guard Kyrie Irving told reporters after a 26-point effort. "They came out firing. We just had to battle back. It took a lot. It took everybody." It was just the second win in the last five home games for the Celtics, who entered Saturday having played two more games than any other team in the league. Marcus Smart chipped in 13 points, six rebounds, five assists, three blocks and two steals against Houston, but it was his ability to draw two offensive fouls against Rockets superstar James Harden in the closing seconds that made headlines. "It just shows the value of Marcus Smart to our group and what he does for our team. It all started with him in the second half," Horford told the media. "It was just a domino effect. That's how special he is. And when he plays at that level we're just a different team." Irving (24.7 & 5.0 APG) is the clear team-leader but the veteran Horford is the unsung hero, averaging 13.8 PPG but also leading the team in rebounding (7.9) AND assists (5.3). The pick: Brooklyn has covered the last three trips to Boston and the Celtics barely covered the first meeting between these two this season, winning 109-102 (as a 6 1/2-point choice) at Barlcays Center. Both Marcus Morris and Jaylen Brown are playing on gimpy knees and Boston's defense does not figure to be up to snuff. Meanwhile, Brooklyn allows 110.9 PPG on the road, so the play here is a 10* on the Over. |
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12-31-17 | Panthers v. Falcons OVER 45 | Top | 10-22 | Loss | -110 | 115 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: The 9-6 Atlanta Falcons may never get over having a 28-3 lead in last year's Super Bowl, before losing in OT. However, the team can take a "first step" towards doing just that by winning here at home in its showdown with NFC South rival Carolina. It's hardly been smooth sailing for the Falcons this season but the scenario is quite simple, beat the Panthers and no matter what happens in Seattle, the Falcons will advance to the playoffs as the NFC's No. 6 seed. The 11-4 Panthers have rebounded nicely from last season 6-10 'disaster,' but with a win here and a loss by the Saints (home to the Bucs), Carolina would win the NFC South. Even better, if the Rams lose on Sunday too, the Panthers would wind up with the NFC's No. 2 seed and a first-round bye! Carolina: Cam Newton didn't match his MVP numbers of 2015 but without much offensive help, he's led the Panthers back into the postseason. Newton has 3,122 passing yards with 21 TDs and 13 INTs. He's also the team's leading rusher with 695 yards (5.4 YPC) and six TDs. Stewart has 680 yards rushing but averages just 3.4 YPC. Rookie McCaffrey added 421 yards (2 TDs) but also leads the team with 75 receptions (5 TDs). Carolina ranks 11th with 23.5 PPG and its defense has been very good, allowing just 313.5 YPG (7th) and 20.3 PPG (12th). Atlanta: Despite all the teams ups and downs this season, the Falcons could have captured the NFC South by beating the Saints last Sunday in New Orleans and then beating the Panthers here in Atlanta in Week 17. However, Atlanta was knocked out of contention for the division title with a 23-13 loss at New Orleans last week.That means Atlanta must beat the Panthers here, as they can hardly expect Seattle to lose at home vs. the Cardinals. Matt Ryan has a modest 19 TD passes (with 12 INTs), giving him a QB rating of 91.4. That's quite a drop-off from his MVP numbers of 2016, when he had 38 TDs (17 INTs) and a 117.1 QB rating. Atlanta was the NFL's highest scoring team last season (33.8 PPG) but enters Week 17 averaging just 22.1 PPG (15th). The Atlanta defense has held its own, ranking 11th in allowing 20.3 PPG on 323.1 YPG (10th). The pick: No one is quite sure how Carolina will play this one, as if the Saints win at Tampa Bay, the Panthers can't do much about their playoff seed. However, both of these games start at 4:25 ET. I'm betting the Panthers go "all out" and that's exactly what I expect from the Falcons, as well. Make the Over an 8* play. |
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12-30-17 | 76ers v. Nuggets UNDER 216.5 | Top | 107-102 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
analysis coming |
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12-30-17 | Washington v. Penn State OVER 55 | Top | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 21 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: The University of Phoenix Stadium is the setting for this year's Fiesta Bowl, featuring the 10-2 Washington Huskies and the 10-2 Penn State Nittany Lions. Each school was 7-2 in their respective conference schedules, the Huskies in the Pac-12 and the Nittany Lions in the Big Ten. Washington opened 6-0 but was then upset, losing to Arizona State on October 14. The Huskies won four of their last five games, including an Apple Cup rout of Washington State. Penn State began 7-0 but coughed up a big lead in losing 39-38 at Columbus to Ohio State, then lost the following week 27-24 at Michigan State. Penn State closed out with three straight wins, averaging 52.3 PPG. Washington: The Huskies have an excellent QB in Jake Browning and a big-time RB in Myles Gaskin. Browning is completing 68.8% for 2,544 yards with 18 TDs and just five INTs. Gaskin (1,282 yards / 6.2 YPC / 19 TDs) leads a ground game averaging 189.8 YPG (38th). Washington will check in averaging 36.9 PPG (16th). Browning has seen a dip of nearly 900 yards and 25 TDs from his phenomenal 2016 campaign, but he is the school's all-time leader with 77 TD passes and is on the verge of becoming its second 9,000-yard career passer. Washington's defense is top-notch, allowing 14.5 PPG (5th) on 278.3 YPG (6th). Penn State: RB Saquon Barkley was an early Heisman front-runner but he ended the regular season with 1,134 yards (5.7 YPC) and 16 TDs, while catching 47 passes for another 594 yards with three TDs. QB Trace McSorley led the Big Ten in passing (3,228 yards) and added 431 yards and 11 TDs on the ground to pace the nation's sixth-ranked scoring attack (41.6 PPG). The defense checks in allowing 15.5 PPG (7th) on 329.4 YPG (17th). The pick: Penn State is 9th in the CFP rankings and returns to the area, if not the exact site, of one of its greatest bowl triumphs, the 14-10 victory over then-No. 1 Miami in the 1986 season. Penn State enjoyed a wonderful history in the Fiesta Bowl, going 6-0. Both teams had designs on a berth in the College Football Playoff (Washington for the second straight season) but both suffered two single-digit losses on the road, which was just enough to keep them on the outside looking in. While both teams owns outstanding defenses, expect the offenses to rule the day. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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12-29-17 | Penguins v. Hurricanes OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
The set-up: The two-time defending champion Pittsburgh Penguins are struggling so far in their bid for a "Three-Peat." However, they are coming off a win that many of their players felt was their biggest of the season.The Penguins erased a two-goal deficit on three occasions and eventually prevailed 5-4 in a shootout over Columbus on Wednesday..Unfortunately, the afterglow of the come-from-behind victory did not last long. Goalie Matt Murray will be among four players sidelined when 19-16-13 Pittsburgh opens a three-game road trip at the resurgent Carolina Hurricanes on Friday night. 17-12-7 Carolina has turned things around since a four-game skid early in the month, winning three straight and six of seven to move into a tie with Pittsburgh (both clubs have 41 points) for sixth place in the Metropolitan Division (with two games in hand). Pittsburgh: Star defenseman Kris Letang missed Wednesday's 5-4 shootout victory over Columbus. However, the victory came at a cost as Murray, forward Bryan Rust and defenseman Chad Ruhwedel suffered injuries, with the latter two expected to miss significant time. Murray (upper body) missed the first six games this month due to a lower-body injury and is listed as day-to-day but has been ruled out Friday along with Letang. Rust was listed as longer-term and Ruhwedel is week-to-week, both with upper-body injuries. Tristan Jarry, who started all six games when Murray was hurt, is 5-2-2 with a 2.43 goals-against this season and will get tonight's start. Carolina: The Hurricanes' turnaround has been sparked by veteran goalie Cam Ward, who seemingly had been relegated to backup goalie status before winning five consecutive starts as part of a seven-game point streak (6-0-1) in December. He has started three in a row for the first time this season and surrendered just four goals. At the other end of the ice, the biggest boost for the Hurricanes during their successful run has been production on the power play. They have four power-play goals in a three-game span, following a five-game stretch without any power-play goals. The pick:This is the first of four meetings between Pittsburgh and Carolina this season. The Penguins went 4-0-0 last season against the Hurricanes.Pittsburgh will arrive in Charlotte with the NHL's second-best power play (converting on 25.2 percent) and that unit will test Ward. I realize Jarry's numbers look fine but Pittsburgh likley can't wait for Murry to be get back between the pipes. The Over is a 10* play. |
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12-28-17 | Michigan State v. Washington State OVER 47 | Top | 42-17 | Win | 100 | 20 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: This year's Holiday Bowl from San Diego will feature 9-3 Michigan State (7-2 in the Big Ten) and 9-3 Washington State (6-3 in the Pac 12). Michigan State bounced back from last season's awful 3-9 season to make a run at the Big Ten's East Division. The Spartans finished with three wins in their final four games (checking at No. 16 in the last CFP rankings), including an impressive 27-24 home win over then-No. 7 Penn State on Nov. 4. However, the very next Saturday, the Spartans were crushed 48-3 at Columbus and wound up one game back of the 8-1 Buckeyes, who went on to win the Big Ten championship game. The Cougars ended the 2016 season with three straight losses (including a bowl loss to a depleted Minnesota team) but opened 2017 in the AP's top-25 poll at No. 24 and closed at No. 21 (Washington St. is 18th in the latest CFP rankings). Michigan State: The Spartans have been up and down offensively this season. The passing game averages 215.4 YPG (76th) and the ground game 162.9 YPG (67th). QB Brian Lewerke has thrown for 2,580 passing yards and 17 TD (just six INTs) but note that 845 of those yards and six of his scoring passes came over a two-game span bridging October and November (445 yards at Northwestern and 400 yards at home against Penn St.). Similarly, leading rusher LJ Scott (785 yards / 4.3 YPC / 6 TDs) gained 341 and had three TDs in two wins, at Minnesota and home against Maryland. Looking back at his season and we find that he had fewer than 40 yards rushing in four games this season. Teams coached by Mark Dantonio have always been known for defense and this yera's Spartans come in 9th in total defense (297.4 YPG allowed) and 24th in scoring defense at 20.2 PPG. Washington State: The Cougars will challenge MSU's defense with one of the best offensive passing attacks in the country (374.8 YPG ranks 2nd), led by their record-setting QB, Luke Falk, who has thrown 3,593 yards with 30 TDs and 13 INTs (he became the Pac-12's all-time career passing leader in November)..Falk has thrown to a deep group of receivers throughout his three seasons as Washington State's starting QB, while operating behind a stout offensive line. This season's leading receivers for the Cougars has been Tavares Martin Jr. (70 catches / 9 TDs), Isaiah Johnson-Mack (60 catches / 5 TDs) and Kyle Sweet (50 catches / 2 TDs). Then there is RB Jamal Morrow who had 56 catches and four TDs. However, the Cougars' running game ranks 129th, averaging a woeful 71.1 YPG. WSU averaged 38.2 YPG but this year's team checks in at a more modest 31.4 per. A challenge will be that Tavares Martin Jr. was dismissed from the team and Isaiah Johnson-Mack left the program. However, that doesn’t mean the team won’t continue to go to the air, especially with seven players remaining that have caught 24 or more passes this season. Mike Leach has always been known for his "Air Raid" offense but after his first three Washington St. teams allowed 33.7, 32.5 and 38.6 PPG, his next two dipped under the 30 PPG mark. This year's unit checks in at 24.4 PPG (45th) and in allowing only 313.9 YPG, ranks 13th. The pick: Washington State was 6-0 and ranked 8th in the country after beating Oregon 33-10 on October 7. However, the Cougars were "no-shows" at Cal the following week in a 37-3 loss. Two weeks after that, they gained 653 yards at Arizona, yet lost by 21! Washington was still alive for the Pac-12 North title its final game against Washington (Apple Cup) but were humiliated 41-14. Welcome to Mike Leach's world. This is nothing new! Michigan State will be 'bowling' for the 10th time in the last 11 seasons but head coach Mark Dantonio still feels a bit slighted nationally. When unranked Michigan (the school's biggest rival which lost to the Spartans this year) was selected for a New Year's Day bowl rather than MSU, it didn't sit well. Dantonio got into a bit of a Twitter war with Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh about the perceived snub and many of the Michigan State players made their unhappiness known as well. Something tells me MSU is out to prove something here and Washington St. needs to wash the bitter taste out of its mouth after a second staright embarrassment in the Apple Cup. What's in store? How about an 8* play on the Over. |
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12-26-17 | Kansas State v. UCLA UNDER 60.5 | Top | 35-17 | Win | 100 | 26 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: The 7-5 Kansas State Wildcats (5-4 in Big-12) will take on the 6-6 UCLA Bruins (4-5 in Pac-12) in the Cactus Bowl at Chase Field in Phoenix. The Wildcats finished the season strong, winning four of their last five games and will be participating in their 8th consecutive bowl game. The Bruins had an up and down season but were able to reach a bowl game after their 30-27 victory over the California Golden Bears on the last weekend of the season. However, after its Nov. 18th loss to USC, UCLA decided to part ways with head coach Jim Mora. The Bruins have already made a big splash with the hire of Chip Kelly but that's for next season, UCLA will be led by interim head coach Jedd Fisch in this one. UCLA: QB Josh Rosen finished the regular season 10th in the FBS in passing yards with 3,717 (62.5% with 26 TDs and 10 INTs) but he has been slowed by injuries the past two seasons and twice was unable to finish a game this fall. He was replaced against California after getting sacked three times in the first half but he has since returned to practice and appears ready to go against Kansas State. The pick: Some (many) expected QB Zach Rosen to go the Christian McCaffrey-Leonard Fournette route and opt out of the bowl before his likely early entry into the NFL draft (more than a few believe he's the best prospect) but all indicators are that he’s a go for this game. Why not? The Kansas State pass D is awful, ranking 129th in allowing 310.2 YPG. However, given the coaching situation and distractions in preparation caused by fires in the L.A. area, I'm not all that convinced the Bruins will bring their "A game." Kansas State is making its eighth consecutive bowl appearance -- a streak that is tied for 13th in the FBS -- and its 19th under coach Bill Snyder, who twice has turned the program around, once following a short retirement.I say Under is worth an 8* play. |
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12-24-17 | Houston v. Fresno State UNDER 49 | Top | 27-33 | Loss | -108 | 36 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: There are few nicer places to spend Christmas Eve than in Hawaii. Sunday night from Aloha Stadium in Honolulu, the 7-4 Houston Cougars will face the 9-4 Fresno State Bulldogs The Houston Cougars won three of their last four games to make it to their fifth consecutive bowl game.As for the Bulldogs, coming off a 1-11 season in 2016, they won the MWC West Division at 7-1 and then lost 17-14 to Boise State in the MWC championship game Houston: The Cougars own impressive road wins at Arizona (19-16) and South Florida, when Houston ended USF's 12-game winning streak with a 28-24 victory..Houston also lost two "close ones" at home vs.Texas Tech (27-24) and Memphis (42-38). Houston's season has seen them go through three QBs and sophomore D’Eriq King is currently making it seem like "the third time is a charm." He led the comeback win against USF and has completed 73 percent of his passes for 832 yards over the last three games (Cougars won twice and lost by three at Tulane). Houston has a stable of RBs but no standout. The team is averaging a respectable 175.5 YPG on the ground (53rd) and the team's defense has been very solid (23.0 PPG ranks 40th). Fresno State: Former Cal head coach Jeff Tedford has had some "first season." The Bulldogs lost back-to-back games at Alabama and Washington by a combined 63 points in their second and third games, then won four in a row, capped by a dominant 27-3 victory at San Diego State. Tedford’s squad followed the win in San Diego with an ugly home loss to UNLV but closed the regular season with four straight victories, including a 28-17 triumph over Boise State (as noted above, the Bulldogs then lost 17-14 to Boise in the title game). The team's remarkable turnaround has been sparked by a revitalized defense and the arrival of junior quarterback Marcus McMaryion, a transfer from Oregon State who has thrown 14 touchdown passes against just four interceptions. FSU allowed 30.9 PPG on 415 YPG last year but enter this contest allowing 17.2 PPG (9th) on 319.0 YPG (16th). The pick: Fresno State has not won a bowl game since 2007, when it beat Georgia Tech 40-28 in the Humanitarian Bowl. Its most recent bowl game did not go well, a 30-6 loss to Rice in Hawaii in 2014 that dropped the school to 10-13 in bowl games, going 0-6 ATS in its last six bowl games. Houston is playing in its fifth bowl in a row (2-2 last four) and is 11-13 in bowls, all-time. FSU's defense has been terrific and Houston's is much better than most realize. The play is a 10*! |
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12-24-17 | Jaguars v. 49ers UNDER 42.5 | Top | 33-44 | Loss | -110 | 122 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: The Jacksonville Jaguars have won three in a row and seven of their last eight. Last week's 45-7 rout of Houston moved the Jags to 10-4 and clinched the team's first playoff appearance since 2007. The Jags will visit Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara on Sunday afternoon to take on the suddenly rejuvenated San Francisco 49ers, who with Jimmy Garoppolo under center, have won three in a row to sit at 4-10. The Jaguars have made a remarkable turnaround from a three-win season to earn a postseason berth and can clinch their first division title since 1999 with a victory. Jacksonville owns a two-game lead over Tennessee and will secure the division crown with a win or tie against the 49ers, or if the Titans tie or lose to the Los Angeles Rams. The 49ers will be home for the postseason but optimism is running high in the Bay Area after wins over the Bears, Texans and Titans. Fans can see a light at the end of tunnel. Jacksonville. QB Blake Bortles was almost run out of town during the preseason but the Jags didn't have a "Plan B," so Bortles was "their man." Bortles continued his torrid play last week, throwing for 326 yards and three touchdowns for a 143.8 passer rating. He is the now the first QB in franchise history to register a 100-plus passer rating, multiple TD passes and no interceptions in three consecutive games. He's completing 61.0% on the season with 19 TDs and just eight INTs. Rookie Leonard Fournette, who missed last week's game with a quadriceps injury, ranks third among NFL rookies with 1,136 scrimmage yards and is tied for second in TDs by a rookie with nine. He leads the team with 923 rushing yards and the Jags are the league's top rushing unit at 149.1 YPG. The there's that Jags' D which made great strides last year but gave up too many points because of all the Jags' TOs (see Bortles). However, Jacksonville comes into this game allowing a league-low 14.9 PPG on 284.1 YPG (3rd), while leading the NFL with 51 sacks. San Francisco. From the start of the 2016 season through their 11th game of this season, the 49ers managed three wins. However, last Sunday’s 25-23 victory over the Titans means they’ve now won three games in the last three weeks and it isn’t hard to find the guy getting the credit for that change of fortunes. QB Jimmy Garoppolo has started all three of those wins and he’s leading an offense that’s gone over 400 yards in consecutive games for the first time since 2011. All three wins have come after the 49ers trailed in the second half and Sunday’s win saw Garoppolo complete three quick passes to move the team in position for Robbie Gould‘s field goal as time expired. “I knew he was a great player; we all did,” right guard Brandon Fusco said, via the San Francisco Chronicle. “We didn’t know he was this special.” The pick: Garoppolo's been great but the Bears, Texans and Titans (his three 'victims') are NOT the Jags. Then again, the 49ers do catch the Jags off last week's rout of Houston, which clinched the franchise's first playoff berth since 2007. Can you say "let down?".Garoppolo’s getting most (all?) of the credit but let me note that 49er defense has yielded only 19.6 PPG over its last six games. Make the Under an 8* play. |
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12-20-17 | Blues v. Flames OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: The 22-11-2 St. Louis Blues have 46 points, tying them for first-place in the Central Division with the Nashville Predators. However, the Blues have lost three of their last four, after opening a four-game road trip by getting shut out 4-0 at Winnipeg on Sunday. It marked the team's second shut out loss in that four-game span, in which St. Louis has scored only three goals. The Blues continue their road trip tonight in Calgary against the 17-14-3 Flames. Calgary just snapped a three-game skid with a 6-1 win Sunday in Vancouver. St. Louis: Brayden Schenn leads the team in goals (16), assists (22) and points (38) but has just one assist in the team's 1-3-0 run. That's after scoring six goals and setting up another in his previous four. The Blues have struggled since LW Jaden Schwartz (14 goals & 21 assists) was placed on injured reserve with an ankle injury, going 2-3-1 over the last six games. "But we're still a better hockey team than what we've shown the last couple games," Blues head coach Mike Yeo told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. "I do feel that part of it was we went through a difficult stretch. A lot of games. Fatigue can set in. But that's not an excuse anymore." Calgary: Sam Bennett scored a goal and set up three others to record his second career four-point performance in Sunday's win over the Canucks. He now has 12 points (four goals, eight assists) in his last 11 games last time out. It marked the fourth time that teh Flames have registered at least six goals in a game. "You like to see that, when lots of guys are getting on the board. It's good for everyone's confidence," said Bennett. Mark Jankowski recorded a three-point performance (one goal, two assists) in Calgary's 6-1 rout of Vancouver on Sunday. However, center Sean Monahan (team-leading 17 goals) has been held off the scoresheet in five straight games. The pick: The Blues boast the West's best road record (10-4-2) while the Flames have struggled at home, going 8-10-0. The teams have met twice already this season, with St. Louis winning 5-2 at Scottrade Center on Oct. 25, before Calgary won 7-4 loss at Scotiabank Saddledome on Nov. 13. Although the Blues have only scored three goals in their past four games, Yeo said he's expecting his players to go on the attack against the Flames. "We have to have the mindset that we have to get to the offensive zone," Yeo said. "(The Flames) transition too well, they're too dangerous off the rush. The way that their D gets involved, if we're turning pucks over and if we don't have the right structure in our game, then we'll be chasing again.The first two meetings saw seven and 11 goals scored. Nothing new here. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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12-20-17 | Louisiana Tech v. SMU OVER 71 | Top | 51-10 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 10 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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12-19-17 | Canadiens v. Canucks OVER 5.5 | Top | 7-5 | Win | 102 | 15 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: The Montreal Canadiens are 14-15-4 (32 points) and the Vancouver Canucks are 15-15-4 (34 points), as the two clubs get set to meet Tuesday night at Rogers Centre. Both teams will be missing key players due to injuries. Montreal head coach Claude Julien revealed that top defenseman Shea Weber will not play due to a foot injury, while the Canucks could be without top scorer Brock Boeser (17 goals & 13 assists) and one of their best defensemen, Chris Tanev, while others definitely will miss the game. A .500 record is no surprise for Vancouver (Canucks' 69 points last season were better than only the Avalanche's league-low total of 48), but Montreal's 32 points leaves them out of playoff position as well, which is quite a drop-off from a club which had 103 points last season to top the Atlantic Division. Montreal: The Canadiens put together a five-game winning streak from Nov. 25 through Dec 2 but have who have now dropped four of five, as a seven-game road trip continues here against the Vancouver Canucks. It marks just the second game of the trip for Montreal, which won't return home until the calendar turns to 2018 (Jan. 2). The Canadiens have just nine goals in their last five games, which is not conducive to winning. Weber has played in all six games this month but coach Claude Julien said his top defenseman continues to be bothered by his foot injury. "It's a long season, and it's the type of injury that he couldn't continue playing with," Julien said. "We'll manage it properly over the next couple of days and weeks." Julien juggled his lines at Monday's practice in an effort to jump-start the offense, reuniting captain Max Pacioretty with Jonathan Drouin and Paul Byron on the top line. Vancouver:The Canucks also know all about struggling offensively, as they have scored just 10 times during a 1-5-0 slide. A run-down of Vancouver's injury woes takes time. Boeser,, who is considered a strong candidate for NHL rookie of the year, was hurt while blocking a Mark Giordano shot Sunday in Vancouver's 6-1 loss to the Calgary Flames. He left the arena on crutches and sporting a walking boot. The Canucks called up Reid Boucher from their AHL farm club in Utica, N.Y., on Monday as an apparent replacement. However, according to a radio report, Boeser did not sustain a fracture. Tanev missed the Sunday game due to an undisclosed injury sustained last week against the Nashville Predators. Even so, the Canucks returned defenseman Ashton Sautner to Utica on Monday. The Canucks also have been without injured top center Bo Horvat (foot), winger Sven Baertschi (undisclosed) and Erik Gudbranson (wrist) lately, and winger Derek Dorsett's career-ending neck injury in November continues to haunt the team. However, head coach Travis Green is confident that his players will not dwell on the misfortune. Is he just "whistling past teh graveyard?" The pick: The Canadiens have won three in a row versus the Canucks but they have lost 13 of 16 (3-11-2) against Western Conference opponents and are 1-6-1 versus the Pacific Division this season. Both clubs are struggling to score but Montreal come in allowing 3.57 GPG on the road, while Vancouver is allowing 3.18 GPG at home. That spells OVER and I'll make it a 10* play. |
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12-19-17 | Akron v. Florida Atlantic UNDER 64.5 | Top | 3-50 | Win | 100 | 56 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: The Akron Zips were a surprise winner of the MAC East but lost 45-28 to Toledo in the MAC championship game, which brings them to the Boca Raton Bowl with a modest 7-6 record. Awaiting the Zips will be the Florida Atlantic Owls, who are looking to complete a remarkable season with a bowl victory and cap of the year with a 10-game win streak. The Owls opened teh 2017 season 1-3 (lost to Navy, Wisconsin and Buffalo), before winning a C-USA East division title at 8-0 record in league play. The Owls ten beat North Texas 41-17 at FIU Stadium (where the Boca Raton Bowl will be played) in the C-USA title game. An interesting storyline comes with this game, as Akron head coach Terry Bowden is the son of Bobby Bowden, the man who made Florida State a two-time national champion plus FAU's Lane Kiffin is the son of Monte Kiffin, recognized as one of football's most creative defensive minds in the game and the father of the "Tampa Cover 2" defense. Akron: Bowden suspended QB Thomas Woodson and redshirt freshman Kato Nelson scratched out a couple of wins to allow Akron to become bowl-eligible and win its half of the MAC. Woodson returned for the conference title game vs. heavily-favored Toledo but was ineffective, completing only 5 of 14 for 35 yards. Nelson, who started the game and returned in the second half, and third-string Robbie Kelly led a few late TD drives that allowed the Zips to record a backdoor cover. Woodson completed 159 of his 278 pass attempts (57.2%) for 1,777 passing yards with 14 TDs and nine INTs, while Nelson tossed for 909 yards, eight TDs and only two INTs but completed just 48.8 percent of his passes. No RB even gained 400 yards on the season with Akron ranking 118th with 108.5 YPG on the ground. The team averaged only 23.6 PPG (103rd) on just 329.5 YPG (118th) and that hardly bodes well when its defense is allowing 26.3 PPG (60th) and a more troubling 432.3 YPG (98th) Florida Atlantic: Offense is one aspect of the game everyone concedes Lane Kiffin knows quite a bit about. QB Jason Driskel has completed 65.6% for 1,977 yards with 13 TD passes and four INTs. He's run for 360 yards (5.1 TYPC) with six more TDs. the ground game ranks 6th with 283.1 YPG, leading an offens which averages 39.8 PPG (9th).RB Devin Singletary has had an outstandiung season (1,794 yards (6.5 YPC) and 29 rushing TDs) plus gets help from Howell, who added 690 rushing yards (6.7 YPC) and five TDs. The defense is plenty good enough with those kind of offensive numbers, allowing 24.2 PPG (44th). The pick: Kiffin rarely "makes friends" in the coaching business, as he sure seemed to enjoy former employer Tennessee stumbling all over itself as it searched for a new head coach. However, he's authored a dramatic turnaround in Boca Raton and his Owls are one of the biggest bowl favorites in recent memory. Akron was able to fill one of the 78 available slots simply by competing in the watered-down MAC East and scoring a non-conference win over Arkansas Pine-Bluff. In the Zips’ other three non-conference games, they were limited to 31 total points in losses to bowl-bound Penn State, Iowa State, and Troy State. Expect this to be a somewhat boring game and the 10* play is on the Under. |
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12-18-17 | Kings v. Flyers UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 20 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: Go figure the Philadelphia Flyers! The team has put an end to its 10-game losing streak (0-5-5 from Nov. 11 to Dec. 2) in spectacular fashion, by extending its season-high winning streak to six games with Saturday's 2-1 overtime triumph over Dallas. The victory improved the Flyers' record to 3-0-0 on their current five-game homestand at Wells Fargo Center. Philly (now 14-11-7) welcomes the LA Kings to town on Monday, and while the Kings may be 20-10-4 (1st in the Pacific Division), they've followed an eight-game winning streak (from Nov. 25 to Dec. 9) with a three-game skid (0-2-1), and hopes to salvage the finale of their four-game road trip, tonight. LA Kings:After missing the playoffs last season, the Kings replaced coach Darryl Sutter. John Stevens led Los Angeles to a 20-8-3 start, highlighted by that eight-game win streak. However, those good feelings have evaporated on an East Coast trip in which the Kings have been outscored 13-6 in losing to he New Jersey Devils, New York Rangers and New York Islanders. Tyler Toffoli registered his 100th career assist in Saturday's setback and can reach two more milestones against Philadelphia. The 25-year-old center is one goal shy of the century mark and one point away from 200 in the NHL. RW Dustin Brown will be playing in his 999th career game on Monday. Philadelphia: The Flyers have allowed two or fewer goals in each of their past six games while receiving goals from 10 different players, including three each from Shayne Gostisbehere, Scott Laughton, Michael Raffl and Simmonds. They have also kept their opponents to two or fewer power-play opportunities in each of their past seven games. Jakub Voracek recorded two assists on Saturday, giving him a league-leading 33 and a team-high 40 points. Philadelphia has done a good job staying out of the penalty box lately, permitting fewer than three power-play opportunities in seven consecutive games. Sean Couturier tops the club with 15 goals but has scored just once in his last eight contests. The pick:"I just think we're not a confident group right now," LA's Anze Kopitar said after scoring the game-tying goal with 13 seconds remaining in the Kings' 4-3 overtime loss to the Islanders in Brooklyn on Saturday night. "We're more playing not to lose than we are to win. We got to turn that around." Meanwhile, the Flyers are just the third team in NHL history to win at least six in a row after losing 10 straight, joining the 1966-67 Toronto Maple Leafs and 2005-06 San Jose Sharks. The Flyers have also gotten solid goaltending from Brian Elliott (2.61 GAA & .915 SP on the season), who has been in net for all six wins in the streak. Elliott's career high for consecutive wins is 11, set last season. I also expect LA's Quck (2.33 GAA & .924 SP) to be up to the challenge, so the play is a 10* on the Under. |
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12-17-17 | Cowboys v. Raiders OVER 45.5 | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -115 | 100 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: NBC's Sunday Night Football edition in Week 15 features the 7-6 Dallas Cowboys visiting the 6-7 Oakland Raiders. The Cowboys have rebounded from three straight loses to beat the Redskins and Giants in their last two, keeping the team's slim wild card hopes alive. The Raiders lost their Week 14 game at KC and at 6-7, sit one game back of the Chargers and Chiefs in the AFC West. Those two play Saturday night, so the Raiders can stay one game behind the winner of that contest and into a tie with the loser. Clearly, the loser of this game will be all but eliminated from postseason consideration. Dallas: The Cowboys had scored a combined 22 points in losing three in a row, following the six-game suspension to RB Ezekiel Elliott. However, Dallas has scored 38 and 30 points in its back-to-back wins, with QB Dak Prescott breaking out for a career-high 332 yards against the Giants, along with three touchdown passes. RB Alfred Morris ran for 127 yards in the win over the 'Skins and RB Rod Smith had 160 yards from scrimmage with both a rushing and receiving touchdown vs. the Giants (47 rush yards / 113 receiving yards). That said, Dallas can't wait for Elliott to return, after this game. Oakland: The Raiders' offense pretty much came up empty at KC last Sunday, with QB Derek Carr passing for a modest 211 yards (one TD and two INTs) and Marshawn Lynch gaining only 61 yards on the ground. Carr has 2,942 yards on the season with 18 TDs and 10 INTs (QB rating of 88.8), while Lynch has a disappointing 619 yards rushing on 4.2 YPC with seven TDs. The Raiders rank 15th in passing yards and only 26th in rushing, at 91.5 YPG. That all adds up to just 20.3 PPG, which ranks 21st. The pick: "I think the two of us probably expected to have a few more wins at this point in the year," Raiders head coach Jack Del Rio said of his team and the Cowboys. "We are where we are and we’re looking forward to playing.” The winning team will have a daunting challenge ahead of them. Dallas has the Seahawks and Eagles remaining on its schedule, while Oakland still has to play the Eagles and Chargers. Not interested in "picking a winner" but considering Prescott has a 114.4 QB rating with eight TDs and zero interceptions in his last five road games and Carr has 21 TD passes versus just five interceptions in his last 10 home games, an 8* on the Over makes sense. |
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12-17-17 | Pacers v. Nets OVER 216.5 | Top | 109-97 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
\The set-up: The Indiana Pacers opened a six-game homestand with four straight wins (including beating the Cavs) but then lost the final two games, each time failing to reach 100 points. After losing 100-95 to OKC, the Pacers nearly overcame a 16-point deficit in the fourth quarter on Friday, before ending up with a 104-98 setback against Detroit.The Pacers will try to rediscover their offense when they hit the road for one game with a visit to the Brooklyn Nets on Sunday. The Nets know a little about struggling on the offensive end of the court and that was on display during a 120-87 Friday loss to the Toronto Raptors on Friday., when not a single starter scored in double figures. Brooklyn: Before getting blown out Friday by Toronto, the Nets had won three of four. The team is just 11-17 but when considers the Nets were only (20-62, .244) last season, the team's .393 winning percentage is a decent improvement. While the starters did not reach double figures for Brooklyn on Friday, a pair of new players gave the bench a boost. Nik Stauskas (team-high 22 points, 5-of-7 from three-point range) and Jahlil Okafor made their debuts after being acquired from the Philadelphia 76ers and combined for 32 points (remember, Okafor averaged 17.5 & 7.0 as a rookie in 2015-16). Brooklyn is 2-3 since making the trade. "They're going to help us," Nets head coach Kenny Atkinson said. "There were definitely flashes of talent and some good stuff out there," "Again, it's going to take time. It's a process, they have to integrate into the group and we have to help them integrate." The Nets were shorthanded without two starters on Friday, as Allen Crabbe (12.0 & 4.0) sat out with left knee soreness, while DeMarre Carroll (13.3 & 7.0) rested. PG Russell was leading the team in scoring at 20.9 PPG (also 5.7 APG) but had arthroscopic surgery on his injured knee and will be out indefinitely, The Nets average 104.4 PPG (10th) but allow 111.0 PPG (28th). The pick: Indiana is 12-4 in its last 16 meetings with the Nets, including winning the last four. The teams began the regular season two months ago as eight players reached double figures and the Pacers shot 52 percent in a 140-131 home win. We may not see 270 points again but I will make the Over a 10* |
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12-16-17 | Predators v. Flames OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -118 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: The Nashville Predotors got off to a poor start, losing seven of their first 12 games (Stanley Cup 'hangover?'). However, the Preds have surely put any hangover behind them and will head into the finale of a three-game trek through Western Canada (at Calgary) having won 15 of their last 19 contests The 20-7-4 Predators (44 points) are now tied with the St. Louis Blues for first place in the West's Central Division. Meanwhile, the 16-13-3 Calgary Flames (35 points) are 4th in the Pacific Division, currently on the wrong side of the playoff 'picture.' Calgary is having a tough December, with losses in six of nine outings (3-5-1) this month. Nashville Kyle Turris, who was acquired from the Senators on Nov. 5, had a goal and an assist as the Predators won for the 15th time in their past 19 outings on Thursday. Filip Forsberg notched an assist on Thursday to extend his point streak to three games. Defenseman Roman Josi also tallied with the man-advantage in Thursday's 4-0 win at Edmonton. Fiala netted a power-play goal versus the Oilers to increase his point streak to six games (five goals, three assists) while fellow forward Calle Jarnkrok owns a four-game run with three goals and two assists. The Predators took the day off in Calgary on Friday, leaving media to have to wait until Saturday to find out if head coach Peter Laviolette will stick with backup Juuse Saros in goal after he set a franchise record for saves (46) in a shutout in Edmonton. Or he can turn to No. 1 Pekka Rinne. That would hardly be a "bad option," as Rinne has stopped 131 of 140 shots to post a 3-0-1 mark this month. Calgary:While the Predators have been consistently winning, the Flames find themselves searching for consistency. Calgary surrendered a late goal at home on Thursday and lost to the San Jose Sharks 3-2. The team's power play is mired in a 2-for-28 funk since Nov. 28, with the only spark it provided coming from coach Glen Gulutzan. "I thought the power plays in the second (period) took some momentum out of our sails," Gulutzan said. "Couldn't win a draw on the (38-second) 5-on-3. And the other full power play I don't think we even got in (the offensive zone). So it took a little zip out of us." Leading scorer Johnny Gaudreau (13 goals / 26 assists) struggled to come up with an answer as to what the Flames have to do to turn things around at home, where they are 8-9-0. "Play like we do on the road I guess," he shrugged. "Try not to get to fancy at home." The pick: Going against Nashville right now makes little sense but I do expect a strong effort from the Flames in this one. A check of the record book reveals the "typical" Calgary home game averages about 6 1/2 goals, so I'll make the Over a 10* play. |
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12-16-17 | Chargers v. Chiefs OVER 46 | Top | 13-30 | Loss | -105 | 76 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: The Los Angeles Chargers opened 0-4, before winning their Week 5 game against the winless Giants. Meanwhile, the Kansas City Chiefs began 5-0. Who could have possibly predicted back then that this Week 15 Saturday night game between the visiting Chargers and the homestanding Chiefs would be for sole possession of first-place in the AFC West. However, that's exactly the case, as both team's come in 7-6. KC's slide began with a 19-13 home loss to the Steelers in Week 6 and last Sunday;s 26-15 win over the Raiders ended a four-game slide, as well as a stretch in which the Chiefs had lost six of seven. The Chargers followed their win over the Giants with two more victories but back-to-back losses left them 3-6 entering Week 11. Eleven was a lucky number for the Chargers, as their 54-24 rout of the Bills has sparked a four-game winning streak. LA Chargers: QB Philip Rivers is completing 62.8 percent of his passes for 3,611 yards, and is headed for another 4,000 yard passing season (that would make nine of 10!). He has 23 TDs and just seven interceptions for a QB rating of 97.2. WR Keenan Allen has stayed healthy and checks in with 83 catches for 1,143 yards and five TDs. TE Hunter has 42 catches (4 TDs), WR Williams 32 catches (3 TDs) and RB Gordon 43 catches (4 TDs). Gordon leads the team with 853 rushing yards (just 3.7 YPC) but also has six TDs. The Chargers' running game ranks just 24th (99.5 YPG) but Gordon has become a solid dual-purpose RB. The defense has been excellent, allowing just 17.3 YPG (2nd) . Kansas City; The Chiefs finally saw the return of rookie RB Kareen Hunt in last Sunday's win over the Raiders. He rand for 116 yards, his first 100-yard games since Week 5 (had 100-plus yards four times in his first five games). QB Alex Smith was near-perfect through five games and while he's come back to earth, it's hard to argue with his 67.2% completions on the season (23-5 ratio) and his 104.4 QB rating. The Chiefs defense has been a weakness all season, ranking 30th against the run (124.8 YPG) and 28th versus the pass (248.5 YPG). However, they've been able to "limit the damage," allowing 22.2 PPG (15th). In last Sunday's win, they held the Raiders to 268 total yards and15 points, while forcing three turnovers . The pick: KC dominated the first meeting, winning 24-10 in LA back in Week 3. However, both teams look very different now. Philip Rivers has led a resurgent offense, averaging 337.0 YPG through the air with eight TDs and not a single interception during the team's four-game winnings streak, LA is averaging 32.8 PPG in that span and I see little reason to expect the KC defense to "keep a lid" on this Rivers-led offense. As for KC, Smith continues his career season and Hunt, who ran for 172 yards against the Chargers in that first meeting, may just have "found his second wind" last Sunday. KC has won seven in this series, so don't expect them to "roll over." Make the Over is a 10* play. |
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12-13-17 | Raptors v. Suns UNDER 216.5 | Top | 115-109 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: The Toronto Raptors averaged almost 120 PPG (117, to be exact) during a six-game winning streak but Monday night at Staples Center, Toronto was beaten by the Clippers 96-91. The Raptors conclude their four-game road trip when they visit the Phoenix Suns on Wednesday. The Raptors beat the Suns 126-113 at home back on Dec. 5, beginning a four-game skid for Phoenix, which just lost 99-92 road at Sacramento on Tuesday. Toronto: "It happens," shooting guard DeMar DeRozan told reporters after the loss to the Clippers. "We're going to have nights like that where we miss shots. We made a lot of mistakes in the last couple of minutes of the game." DeRozan was limited to 17 points on 5-of-13 shooting against the Clippers, after averaging 25.4 points over the previous five games. DeRozan (23.2-4.5-5.2) and PG Kyle Lowry (16.4-6.4-7.0) lead four starters in double digits, joined by PF Ibaka (13.2 & 5.5) and center Valanciunas (10.6 & 7.5). One bright spot in the Monday loss an offensive spark from Valanciunas, who tied season highs with 23 points and 15 rebounds (his first double-double since Nov. 7). Phoenix: The last time these teams met (see above), the Suns lost more than game, as shooting guard Devin Booker suffered a groin injury. Booker (24.3-4.5-4.1) is expected to miss two to three weeks, leaving only T.J. Warren (18.7 & 5.7) as a reliable scorer. Phoenix badly missed Booker in Tuesday's loss, as teams are crowding the other shooters since they don't have to focus on traps or double teams of the 21-year-old star. Small forward TJ Warren has been trying to pick up the slack but was 9-of-24 shooting while scoring 18 points against the Kings. The Suns missed 15 of 17 three-pointers in the second half. "We've just got to get better at shooting the 3-ball," Phoenix coach Jay Triano said afterward. "The game is trending that way and we got to be able to make more than 2-of-17 in a half." Rookie Josh Jackson (9.2 & 3.6), who is starting in place of Booker, was only 3-of-14 shooting for seven points against the Kings. The pick: Despite the 'hiccup' at Staples Center, the Raptors have been one of the hotter teams in the NBA and in stark contrast, the Suns have lost six of seven and 16 of 21. In this quick turnaround from Toronto’s 126-113 home win over Phoenix (Dec. 5), I see the result being pretty much the same, as the Booker-less Suns just don't have the firepower to match the Raptors. In Suns have averaged a woeful 97.3 PPG in the three games since Booker got hurt. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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12-10-17 | Wild v. Sharks OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 118 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
Minnesota: Nate Prosser notched an assist against the Ducks for his first point in three games since returning to Minnesota. The 31-year-old defenseman spent the first eight seasons of his career with the Wild before signing a two-year contract with St. Louis in August, but he appeared in just one contest for the Blues before being claimed off waivers on Nov. 30. Jason Zucker had his six-game point streak halted by the Kings (Tuesday) but landed back on the scoresheet on Friday, registering a goal and an assist to overtake Eric Staal (10 & 13) for the team lead in scoring with 24 points. San Jose: Logan Couture, who was the ninth overall pick in the 2007 draft, scored a goal and set up two others to eclipse the 400-point mark for his career (401). He leads the team in goals with 15. Four players are set to follow Couture's lead and reach milestones on Sunday - including goaltender Martin Jones, who is one victory shy of 100 in his career. Jannik Hansen, who remains in search of his first goal of the season, is one game away from his 600th in the NHL while Joel Ward's next point will be his 300th. Defenseman Justin Braun recorded an assist Saturday, leaving him two short of 100 in the league, while Joe Thornton is three points away from tying Doug Gilmour (1,414) for 18th place on the all-time list. The pick: Minnesota's Devan Dubnyk is 8-2-1 over his last 11 starts overall but the Wild have allowed 3.47 GPG on the road this season. That doesn't spell goods news as while San Jose's offense has sputtered for much of the season at home, it's been clicking as of late. San Jose, which has won 11 of its last 14 against the Wild here at SAP Center, has scored a total of 14 goals during its three-game home winning streak, including five in each of its last two. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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12-10-17 | Ravens v. Steelers OVER 43.5 | Top | 38-39 | Win | 100 | 121 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: The AFC North rivalry between the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers has quickly developed as one of the biggest, best and most-bitter in the entire NFL. The 7-5 Ravens will be hard-pressed to catch the Steelers for the division title but as Baltimore visits Heinz Field for Sunday Night Football, the Ravens currently own the AFC's No. 6 seed (final playoff spot). The 10-2 Steelers come into this matchup looking to build on their seven-game winning streak which currently has them tied with the Pats for the AFC's best record but as the owners of the tie-breaker (I'm sure the world knows the Pats and Steelers meet next Sunday in Pittsburgh). Baltimore:The Ravens have a winning streak of their own but it's a modest three-gamer. Flacco has struggled all season at QB, as Baltimore ranks 31st in passing YPG at 171.0 per). He's completing 65.1% but has as many INTs as TD passes (11 each), giving him a QB rating of 77.1. WRs Mike Wallace (34) and Jeremy Maclin (36) have combined for 878 receiving yards and six TD reception (three each), while TE Benjamin Watson leads the team with 45 catches (just 7.7 YPC). RB Alex Collins leads the way with 705 yards rushing (4.9 YPC) but Baltimore ranks 12th overall on the ground, averaging 115.5 YPG. and four touchdowns. The defense is not comparable to the Ray Lewis-era units but the Ravens rank third in allowing 17.2 PPG (3rd) on 311.2 YPG (7th). Pittsburgh: The Steelers fell behind the Bengals 17-0 last Monday but came back to win 23-20, keeping their No. 1 seed status intact. The "Killers Bs" are just that. Big Ben has thrown for 3,238 yards with 22 TDs and 13 INTs on the season but note that in the team's seven-game winning streak since losing 30-9 at home to the Jaguars (Roethlisberger threw five picks in that one!), he has a 16-6 TD-to-INT ratio. RB Le'Veon Bell got a slow start but now leads the NFL in rushing with 1,057 yards (also has 66 catches) plus WR Antonio Brown has 88 catches and an NFL-high 1,296 yards (nine TDs). Pittsburgh's D is comparable to Baltimore's, allowing 17.8 PPG (5th) on 294.7 YPG (4th). The pick: When these teams met back in Week 4 (at Baltimore), it was not a typical Ba/Pit game, as the Steelers won handily, 26-9. This game figures to much more intense but note that the Ravens' OL is in much better health these days and Flacco has led the team to an average of 30.0 PPG in its three-game winning streak. Could the Steelers be caught looking ahead to their showdown in Week 15 with the Pats? I can't see that and Big Ben has thrived in his last five SNF home games, throwing 21 TDs and just three INTs with a 127.8 QB rating. How about an 8* on the Over. |
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12-09-17 | Oilers v. Canadiens OVER 5.5 | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: The Edmonton Oilers were a sexy pick to win the Western Conference this season but have been among the league's biggest underachievers so far, checking in at 11-15-2 (24 points). The Oilers own the second-worst record in the Western Conference and are a dreadful 5-9-0 on home ice, The Montreal Canadiens aren't as big of a disappointment but after winning the Atlantic Division last season at 47-26-9 (103 points), the team and its fans can't be happy about the team's current 13-13-4 mark (30 points), which leaves them on the postseason bubble (outside looking in, right now!).. Edmonton: The Oilers will kick off a three-game road trip in Montreal tonight, coming off yet another disappointing performance at home, falling 4-2 to the Flyers on Wednesday. The Oiler are 4-6-0 in their past 10 games and one of the NHL's most disappointing teams this season (eight points out of a wild-card position), were sloppy during a drill at practice Thursday, sparking head coach McLellan's outburst which was picked up by the TSN network. "There is nobody checking us right now," McLellan yelled at his players. "There's not a (bleeping) single soul out there checking and we can't make the first (bleeping) pass or the second one. Are you giving yourselves a chance? Is it (bleeping) important? Are you getting better? Because some team is getting better somewhere this morning somewhere." Forward Nathan Walker and defenseman Jeff Davidson, recent waiver-wire acquisitions, are expected to join the lineup on the road trip to provide "some new energy," Edmonton defenseman Oscar Klefbom said. Davidson, traded by the Oilers to Montreal at last season's trade deadline, is especially eager to face the team that waived him a week ago. "I think that I have something to prove, maybe a little bit, but I'm excited to get into a game first and foremost," Davidson said after Friday's practice. Montreal: The Canadiens just lost 3-2 in overtime on Thursday night to the Flames, their second loss in a row following a five-game winning streak. Montreal expects Jonathan Drouin to the lineup, after missing the past four games due to injury and illness. Drouin is in his first season with Montreal but has centered the team's top line. He had two goals and two assists during a three-game point streak prior to the injury, which was followed by a bout with the flu that he said caused him to lose six pounds. Drouin went through a full practice Friday and skated on a slightly reconfigured unit with Andrew Shaw joining him and regular linemate Alex Galchenyuk. Goaltender Carey Price will make his eighth consecutive start since returning from injury. Price won his first five starts back but has lost 4-3 and 3-2 (OT) in his last two. The pick: The Oilers have actually won five of their last six visits to Montreal plus Edmonton also has won three of its past four on the road, including a 7-5 victory Saturday at Calgary. Maybe McLellan's "rant" will spark the team. However, with Edmonton ranking last in the NHL in penalty killing (72.34 percent), the Oilers will have to score to win here. That has me making the Over a 10* play. |
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12-07-17 | Flyers v. Canucks OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -102 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: It's early but the Vancouver Canucks are "thinking playoffs" after winning three in a row to climb into a playoff position in the Western Conference at 14-10-4 (32 points have them 3rd in the Pacific Division). The Canucks have missed the playoffs each of the last two seasons and three of the past four, but can match their best run of the campaign by beating the rejuvenated Flyers tonight at home. Philadelphia comes into this contest having posted back-to-back wins over Calgary and Edmonton, after enduring a 10-game losing streak (0-5-5). The thought of being in the playoffs is surely not on anyone's mind in Philly right now, as the Flyers check in just 10-11-7 on the season and tied for last in the Metropolitan Division with Carolina at 27 points. Philadelphia: The Flyers limited Edmonton to 26 shots on Wednesday while receiving two points each from captain Claude Giroux and Wayne Simmonds in a 4-2 triumph and improved to 2-0-0 on its three-game Western Canada trip, as well as being 6-5-3 on the road for the season. Jakub Voracek notched his fourth assist on the trip Wednesday and leads the team with 34 points, while Giroux (11 G / 19 A) reached 30 points and fellow forward Sean Couturier (14 & 14) gives Philadelphia three players with at least 28. "We have to stay hungry for wins," Flyers winger Dale Weise told Philly.com. "I think, when you lose 10 in a row, you kind of get that hunger back -- not that we didn't have it at the beginning of the year, but I think we've got that urgency in our game now where we just hate to lose and it really bothers every guy in here." Vancouver: The Canucks have allowed four goals during their three-game winning streak with Jacob Markstrom recording his first shutout in his 129th career game on Tuesday (a 3-0 victory over Carolina). Defenseman Derrick Pouliot was acquired from Pittsburgh in an early-season trade and has made a solid impact (he had a goal and two assists on Tuesday). “I’m starting to add things to my game,” Pouliot, a former first-round pick, told reporters. “So, if I’m playing well defensively, that’s where it starts, and I can add the offensive stuff after that.” Brock Broeser leads with 25 points (13 & 12), while the team's second-leading scorer is Bo Horvat (10 & 10 for 20 points points), although he left Tuesday’s game with what coach Travis Green said was “a small injury” and his status for Thursday is uncertain. The pick: The Flyers are mired well below the playoff bar in the Eastern Conference and have won two successive games only twice this season. They will be playing the second of back-to-back road games here, as well as their third road game in four nights. Tough spot for teh Flyers and the Canucks will be hoping to match their 5-2 victory back on Nov. 21 at Philadelphia. The Fyers have suddenly "perked up" and I'm not sure I trust Vancouver just yet, so I'll make the Over a 10* |
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12-07-17 | Saints v. Falcons OVER 53 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: The 9-3 New Orleans Saints lead the NFC South at 9-3 with the 8-4 Carolina Panthers sitting one game back. The Panthers are tied with the 8-4 Seahawks, with Seattle winning the tie-breaker to give them the NFC's No. 1 wild card spot. The Panthers on the No. 6 seed but a third member the the division is the 7-5 Atlanta Falcons (the defending NFC champs), who are lurking just one game back of the Seahawks and Panthers. Week 14's Thursday Night Football features the Saints and Falcons from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. New Orleans: The Saints saw their eight-game winning streak snapped in a Week 12 loss at the LA Rams but bounced back last Sunday with a 31-21 home win over the Panthers. Drew Brees is still a potent force (71.5% with 17 TDs and just 5 INTs / 104.2 QB rating) but the performances of RBs Mark Ingram Alvin Kamara have somewhat re-defined the Saints' offense. The New Orleans rushing game is averaging 142.6 YPG (3rd), with Ingram gaining 922 yards (5.1 YPC / 9 TDs) and Kamara adding 606 yards (7.0 YPC / 5 TDs). Kamara has four more TDs on 59 catches, while Ingram has 42 catches but no TDs. Then there is the New Orleans' D, which has been a (the?) major reason the Saints have missed the playoffs three straight seasons going 8-8, 8-8 and 7-9. Starting from that 7-9 season, New Orleans' had allowed 26.5 PPG on 384.0 YPG, then 29.8 PPG on 413.8 YPG and finally 28.4 PPG on 375.4 YPG. This year's unit is allowing 20.2 PPG on 330.1 YPG, with both figures ranking 12th-best! Atlanta: The Falcons welcomed the Vikings to Atlanta last Sunday on a three-game winning streak. However, QB Matt Ryan passed for just 173 yards on 16-of-29 with 0 TDS and INTs, while Atlanta was not able to score a TD (had three 38 FGs in a 14-9 loss). Ryan (3,057 yards with 16 TDs and eight INTs / 95.4 QB rating) has not played like he did last year when he was league MVP (he threw for 4,944 yards with TDs, 7 INTs and had a QB rating of 117.1). Atlanta boasts a potent pair of RBs in its own right in Devonta Freeman (589 yards / 4.6 YPC / 3 TDs and Tevin Coleman (569 yards / 4.3 YPC / 6 TDs. Freeman returned from a concussion in a 14-9 loss to Minnesota on Sunday, gaining 74 yards on just 12 carries. However, the Atlanta rushing attack averages a more modest 115.6 YPG to rank 11th. WR Julio Jones owns an NFC-best 1,063 receiving yards (68 catches) but was limited to two catches for 24 yards versus the Vikings. Atlanta led the NFL in averaging 33.8 PPG last season but comes in averaging only 22.8 PPG in 2017, which ranks 14th. The defense has been solid, allowing 20.3 PPG (13th) on 321.0 YPG (8th). The pick: The Saints have already beaten the Panthers twice in 2017 and now play the Falcons tonight and then again in Week 16 (two times in three weeks). A win here would put New Orleans in a great spot and put Atlanta's playoff chances on 'life support.' Matt Ryan and offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian seemed to have finally gotten on the same page in Atlanta's three-game winnings (had averaged 31.7 PPG) but it all collapsed against the Minnesota D. Yes, New Orleans' D is greatly improved but shutting down Atlanta a second straight week will be tough, especially considering how badly Atlanta needs this game. These teams played a pair of shootouts in 2016, with Atlanta winning both by scores of 45-32 and 38-32. I'll stay away from calling for an Atlanta win but will say make the Over a 10* play. |
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12-05-17 | Suns v. Raptors UNDER 225.5 | Top | 113-126 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: The 9-16 Suns rolled to a 115-101 win last night in Philadelphia, behind 46 points from star Devin Booker. Phoenix will cap its six-game road trip (2-3 so far) with a visit to the Air Canada Centre tonight in hopes of breaking even of its road trek. The Toronto Raptors look to match their season-best four-game winning streak,when Toronto won four in a row in mid-November. The Raptors are well-rested (last played on Friday) and enter having averaged 119.3 PPG during their current three-game stretch. What's more, while the Raptors have played the fewest home games of ant NBA team so far this season, they also own the league's best home mark, going 8-1. Phoenix: The 21-year-old Booker connected on five 3-pointers and was 17-of-32 from the floor last night, establishing a season-best for points (his career high is 70). "He gets that look," Suns head coach Jay Triano told reporters afterward, "and it doesn't matter how closely you guard him, it doesn't matter who guards him - he just finds a way to create space and be electric." Booker is averaging 34.8 points over his past four games and is up to 24.5 PPG on the season. Small forward T.J. Warren checks in averaging 18.7 & 5.9 but there's a big drop-off after that. Only Greg Monroe (10.8 & 7.1) and Mike James (10.1) reach double digits among the rest of the Suns. Toronto: The three days off in the schedule gave the Raptors some time to rest, recuperate and practice. They will be playing only their third game in eight days on Tuesday. Second-year center Jakob Poeltl missed Monday's practice but Toronto hopes to have the 7-footer after his terrific performance in the club's last game. Poeltl () flashed his potential with a career-high 18 points on 8-of-8 shooting in Friday's 120-115 victory over the Indiana Pacers - the best showing of his young career. The backcourt of DeMar DeRozan (23.4-4.3-4.7) and Kyle Lowry (16.4-6.3-7.0) lead the way with PF Ibaka (11.5 & 5.7), center Valanciunas (10.5 & 7.00 and swingman Miles (10.2) all adding solid support. The pick: The Suns are at the end of a six-game trip and will now play their sixth game in 10 days (third game in five nights). The rested Raptors are well-aware of the Suns' tough recent schedule. "You see that," Toronto head Dwane Casey said. "We understand the schedule, how many games and the number of days. You try to watch that, but we've got to take care of who we are. This team has come in the last couple of years and beat us and at the time they weren't playing particularly well. One time we had them on a back-to-back and we didn't come in and take care of business." Phoenix road games have averaged 224.4 PPG and Toronto home games 219.0 PPG but the bottom line is, this over/number is just too high. In fact, Toronto has gone 'under" in five of its last seven games and in last year's two meetings (Suns won both!), the fianls averaged 204.0 PPG (about 20 points under this total!). Make the Under a 10* play. |
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12-05-17 | Gonzaga v. Villanova OVER 147 | Top | 72-88 | Win | 100 | 21 h 25 m | Show |
analysis soonThe set-up: With 161 wins, Gonzaga is the winningest team in Division I basketball since the beginning of the 2013-14 season. Villanova, with 15 wins, ranks third. The 8-0 Wildcats (No. 4 in the latest AP poll) will take on the 7-1 Bulldogs, who are currently No. 12, at Madison Square Garden in the first game of the Jimmy V Classic (UConn and Syracuse follow). It feels like an "Old Big East get-together" ('Nova, 'Cuse and UConn), with the little school from from Spokane playing the role of "interloper." Villanova: The Wildcats are averaging 86.4 PPG (30th) and are coming off one of their best shooting games ever. Villanova connected on 64.6 percent from the floor in Saturday's . 41-point rout of Saint Joseph's. Mikal Bridges, Phil Booth and Omari Spellman each made four 3-pointers Saturday, as Villanova drained a school-record 19. A pair of 6-9 forwards, Paschall (10.4 & 5.5) and Spellman (9.0 & 7.4) join a four-guard rotation of Bridges (17.9 & 6.2), Brunson (17.9 & 4.5 APG), DiVincenzo (11.4) and Booth (11.1). Villanova knows how to put points on the board but also knows how to stop its opponent on the defensive end of the court, allowing 61.6 PPG (20th). Gonzaga: The Bulldogs are a "scary good" offensive team, averaging 92.9 PPG (4th) on 51.2 percent shooting (15th). The 6-9 Williams (15.9 & 6.9) is one of six players in double digits, along with PG Perkins (14.2 & 4.5 APG). The 6-9 Hachimura comes off the bench and is just shy of double digits, averaging 9.8 PPG plus 5.4 RPG. 6-8 freshman Corey Kispert (10.4 & 3.7) started the Zags' first seven games but missed the win over Creighton with an ankle injury. He is uncertain to be on the court Tuesday. The Bulldogs trailed Creighton (then ranked No. 25) by seven at halftime in their last game, before destroying the Bluejays 54-30 after intermission. The pick: The Wildcats won the 2016 national championship over North Carolina, while the Bulldogs advanced to the 2017 NCAA Tournament title game before losing to the Tar Heels. This is the first real test for the Wildcats and it's the biggest game on Gonzaga's remaining schedule. Potential Wildcats matchups with Arizona and Purdue never materialized in the Bahamas. Instead, when the Battle 4 Atlantis bracket was busted, Villanova beat Northern Iowa for the title. Sure, 'Nova plays excellent D but this is a game between two outstanding offensive teams and the Over is an 8* play. |
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12-04-17 | Nuggets v. Mavs UNDER 209 | Top | 105-122 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: The 13-9 Denver Nuggets haven't lost a home game in a month (seven straight wins since losing to the Warriors at Pepsi Center on Nov. 4th) but are not only about to kick off a six-game road trip but the team will be without its best player. Center Nikola Jokic (15.5 & 10.6) is expected to miss several games due to a sprained ankle. The Nuggets (3-7 on the road) open their trip with a visit to Dallas, which is 6-17, including just 4-10 at home. However, the Mavericks just pounded the Los Angeles Clippers 108-82 on Saturday to earn head coach Rick Carlisle his 700th career win. "I really wasn't counting, to tell you the truth," Carlisle told reporters. "It just means that I've been very fortunate. I've had three great owners and great players. But we've got a long way to go, and I've really never been one to count that kind of stuff." Denver: The Nuggets beat the Lakers 115-100 for a seventh straight home win, giving them a 10-2 mark at home this season. Jamal Murray scored 28 points in the win to bounce back from a five-point performance on 1-of-9 shooting against Chicago on Thursday. Murray is averaging 14.1 PPG, joining fellow guards Barton (15.5), Harris (14.6) and Mudiay (10.1) in double digits. With Jokic sidelined for at least a few games and PF Millsap (15.7 & 6.2) also out until late-February with a wrist injury, Denver will need help from forwards Chandler and Faried, as well as center Plumlee (Good luck!). Dallas: The Mavs are trying to clinch a winning three-game homestand after falling to the Brooklyn Nets on Wednesday, before blasting the Clippers on Saturday. Veteran point guard J.J. Barea (12.4 & 5.2 APG) led the way with 21 points and 10 assists against Los Angeles and is averaging 13.2 points and 7.3 assists in the six wins. "I was able to come off the bench with a lot of energy and help the team out," Barea told reporters. "Everything was clicking from passing to shooting the ball from the outside, so it was great. It was great to be out there and to get this win. We needed it after a bad loss last time, so hopefully we carry this over." Barnes (18.3 & 7.5) is again leading the team in scoring plus rookie guard Smith (14.2) has been a nice surprise. Matthews (11.6) and Dirk (11.2 & 5.7) are also in double digits but Dallas is averaging just 99.8 PPG (27th). The pick: Denver was already really hurting minus Millsap and now with Jokic out, I expect the poor-traveling Nuggets (even when healthy), to struggle. As noted, Dallas is not much of an offensive team anymore, so the Under is the 8* play. |
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12-03-17 | Rockets v. Lakers OVER 225 | Top | 118-95 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: The Houston Rockets are currently 17-4 and have pretty much owned the West's best record since the beginning of the current season (once the Clippers' 4-0 quickly disappeared). Houston just completed a 4-0 homestand and will open a three-game road trip at the Los Angeles Lakers on Sunday at Staples Center. You may have heard that LA has a rookie PG named Lonzo Ball. Lonzo is working on one of the NBA's worst-ever shooting seasons and after the team's fourth loss in a row (115-100 in Denver last night), the 8-14 Lakers will be hard-pressed to find the energy to keep up with the high-scoring Rockets. Houston: After taking four straight during its just completed homestand (by an average of 20 points per), Houston has won six in a row and 12 of 13. The Rockets' current six-game run, during which they have averaged 120.7 PPG, coincides with the return of PG Chris Paul from a knee injury. The veteran has been running the show with incredible efficiency, handing out 72 assists while committing only nine turnovers in seven games this season. "The court's so open, you get in there, you make the easy play for the most part," Paul told reporters. "I don't expect to have any (turnovers). It's like a quarterback. You don't plan to have interceptions because every time you turn it over, it's an opportunity for the other team." James Harden is leading the NBA in scoring (31.5) and assists (9.8), while also adding 5.2 RPG. Gordon got extra "PT' with Paul sidelined and is the team's second-leading scorer at 19.2 PPG. With Paul now playing regularly (11.1 & 10.3 APG), the Rockets have six players in double digits and check in at 113.9 PPG (2nd-best). The defense has been plenty good enough, allowing 103.1 PPG (9th). LA Lakers: The Lakers were 8-10 before their four-game skid. LA is in a 15-game stretch in which the Lakers play the top two teams in the Western Conference, the Rockets and Golden State Warriors, three times each. They played well in their first meeting of the season against the Warriors on Wednesday, losing 120-115 in overtime after missing a game-winning shot at the end of regulation. They overcame a 12-point deficit to take a four-point halftime lead Saturday night at Denver, but were then outscored 15-0 over the final 3:43 of the 115-100 loss. Ball actually leads LA in rebounding and assists (7.1 per in each) but there are no words to describe his horrific shooting. The numbers say, 31.8% from the floor, including 25.7% on threes. The pick: The Rockets have won their last five road contests by an average of 21.6 PPG and are 9-1 on the road this season. Houston just completed a 12-1 November, outscoring its opponents by an average of 16.769 points, the largest margin of victory for the month since the Boston Celtics won by an average of 16.833 points in 1963. "We're winning by big margins, but we're not playing great," Houston forward P.J. Tucker told the Houston Chronicle. "We have to challenge ourselves to get better." The Lakers allowed 118.8 PPG during their four-game slide and just how will they slow the Rockets? The Over is a 10* play. |
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12-03-17 | Senators v. Jets OVER 5.5 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -125 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: Break up the Wiinipeg Jets! The Jets beat Vegas 7-4 victory on Friday to improve to 8-0-1 in their last nine home games and to 16-6-4 on the season, overall. The team's 36 points puts them in a tie for first-place with the St. Louis Blues in the Central Division, after finishing 40-25-7 (87 points) last season, leaving them fifth in the division and out of the playoffs. Speaking of the postseason, the Jets have never won a playoff game in franchise history! Winnipeg will welcome the 9-9-6 Ottawa Senators to Bell MTS Place, who just snapped a seven-game losing streak Friday, upending the New York Islanders 6-5. Ottawa: The Senators took the Pittsburgh Penguins to seven games in the Eastern Conference Final last season but the team is struggling right now and captain Erik Karlsson, who is not playing well currently, also seems unhappy about his contract situation. He addressed his contract earlier in the week saying, "When I go to market, I’m going to get what I’m worth, and it’s going to be no less, no matter where I’m going. I think it’s time to realize that when we go to the table, it’s business on both parts, not just (owners).” Winnipeg: Center Mark Scheifele recorded three points Friday and is tied for fourth in the NHL in points (13 goals, 32 points), one point ahead of captain Blake Wheeler (six goals and 25 assists) entering Saturday. Forward Patrik Laine also finished with three points on Friday, finishing with one goal and two assists. Goaltender Connor Hellebuyck is 14-2-3 and ranks ninth in the NHL in goals against average (2.43). The pick: The last time the Winnipeg Jets were in first place a third of the way through the season, their leading scorers were Bobby Hull, Ulf Nilsson and Anders Hedberg, and they played in the World Hockey Association. That's quite a long time ago. However, the Jets seem to be for real. Ottawa has some goaltending issues right now and the Jets are averaging 4.25 GPG at home. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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12-03-17 | Browns v. Chargers OVER 41.5 | Top | 10-19 | Loss | -108 | 119 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: The 0-11 Cleveland Browns, the NFL's lone win-less team, travels to Los Angeles and StubHub Center to take on the rejuvenated LA Chargers. The Chargers opened 0-4, just like the Browns, but unlike Cleveland which has continued to lose, Los Angeles has won five of its last seven. LA will take the field just 5-6 on the season but thanks to the Kansas City Chiefs' collapse (KC has lost five of six after a 5-0 start), the Chargers are just one game out of first in the AFC West. Getting back to Cleveland, the Browns are desperately seeking their first win of 2017, as the team's two-year 'nightmare' continues (Browns are 1-26 under head coach Hue Jackson). Cleveland: The Browns are still looking for their first victory since Christmas Eve of last year and Cleveland hasn't won a road game since October of 2015. Other than that, things are great! QB DeShone Kizer hardly looks ready for prime time, completing 53.0 percent with five TDs and 14 INTs (QB rating of 57.2). He gets little help from his running (107.4 YPG ranks 17th) and Cleveland 'brings up the rear" in averaging an NFL-low 15.1 PPG. However, the team has to be excited that WR Josh Gordon returning to action for the first time since Dec. 21, 2014 due to his substance-abuse issues. "I'm just excited," Gordon, the NFL's top receiver in 2013, said during a press conference. "I'm having the most fun that I have ever had doing this, just playing ball, the love of it. That is the only thing that is giving me any type of - not really pressure - but kind of just boost, more than anything." Gordon led the NFL with 1,646 receiving yards in 2013, when he caught 87 passes (nine for TDs) in 14 games while earning Pro Bowl honors. The Cleveland defense has not played all that badly (318.0 YPG ranks 9th) but the NFL's worst TO margin (minus-17) has contributed to them allowing 26.3 PPG, which ranks 30th. LA Chargers: The Chargers look for a third straight victory to get back to a .500 record, after a 54-24 home win over the Bills and a 28-6 win at Dallas on Thanksgiving. Rivers completed 72.3% in those two wins, throwing for 685 yards with five TDs and no INTs. He's completing 62.1 percent for 2,948 yards with 20 TDs and seven INTs (95.2 rating). The Chargers rank 4th in passing YPG, putting Rivers on pace for his ninth 4,000-yard season in his last 10 years. RB Gordon is only averaging 3.7 YPC but has been a good all-purpose back. He's run for 698 yards (5 TDs) and caught 38 passes for four more TDs. WR Keenan Allen has stayed healthy and has 67 catches (13.8 YPC) with four TDs. The Chargers' D has also played well, allowing just 18.4 PPG (6th). The pick: I noted at the top that the Browns last won back on Christmas Eve 2016. The Chargers won't need to be reminded of that here, considering they were the team the Browns beat last Christmas Eve, 20-17. The charged-up Bolts are eager to not only avenge last year's loss to Cleveland but to keep the pressure on KC, which plays at the Jets earlier in the day. Philip Rivers will make his 188th consecutive start and that is now the longest active streak in the league after the New York Giants demoted Eli Manning (210). Rivers looks great and it's hard to imagine Cleveland slowing him and the Chargers down (the Browns have allowed 30 or more points on six occasions in 2017). As for Cleveland, the return of Gordon can be nothing but good news and as Hue Jackson commented, "I have big plans for him. I plan for him to play, and play as much as he can handle. I think he is a very talented player. He needs to play, needs to get out there and play, but we have to see where he is and make sure how much can he handle, how much can he do." Make the Over an 8* play |
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12-03-17 | Colts v. Jaguars OVER 40.5 | Top | 10-30 | Loss | -110 | 115 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: For a long time, the Indianapolis Colts dominated the AFC South, first led by Peyton Manning and then Andrew Luck. However, the Colts entered the 2017 season off back-to-back seasons and with Andrew Luck never getting on the field, find themselves at 3-8 entering Week 13. The Colts would need to "win out" to reach 8-8 this season and we can be pretty sure that won't happen. Indy visits Jacksonville on Sunday and the 7-4 Jaguars are attempting to end a nine-season playoff drought. Jacksonville is tied with Tennessee for first place in the AFC South as it opens a three-game homestand on Sunday against the Colts.The Titans currently own the tie-breaker but the good news is the Jags currently own the AFC's No. 1 wild card spot. Indianapolis: The Colts' season unraveled early as Luck has been unavailable due to a shoulder injury. The team's next loss will clinch its first losing campaign since 2011. "It's tough, but I know what type of guys we've got in this locker room - great group of guys who will come to work every day," veteran RB Frank Gore told reporters. "I know things haven't been going our way, and I think if we just handle the small things, I think that can change." Gore needs just 49 rushing yards against the Jaguars to pass Jerome Bettis (13,662) and LaDainian Tomlinson (13,684) and move into fifth place on the all-time list but "he's dreaming" about this team turning things around. Jacoby Brissett is limited at QB (9 TDs / 5 INTs / QB rating of 86.0), as the Colts rank 26th in averaging 201.3 YPG (26th). Gore and the team's rushing 'attack' ranks 24th, averaging 95.3 YPG. That adds up to the team averaging only 17.2 PPG (27th). On the defensive side of the ball, Indy is allowing an NFL-worst 27.3 PPG on 375.8 YPG (29th). Go back and re-visit Gore's quote and try NOT to laugh! Jacksonville: The Jags considered replacing QB Blake Bortles in the preseason but they didn't have a "plan B." Bortles has made fewer mistakes this season but he's is a liability. He's completing a modest 58.3% with just 12 TDs (albeit, just 8 INTs). The Jags rank just 28th with 194.8 YPG passing but have been bailed out offensively by the NFL's No. 1-ranked running game. Rookie RB Leonard Fournette has been up-and-down this season but his 765 yards (4.1 YPC / 6 TDs) is a team-high for a Jacksonville team averaging 154.3 YPG! Jacksonville's D played hard last season but the turnover-plagued offense kept many people from noticing. However, the Jags enter this Week 13 game ranked first in points allowed (15.3 per game) and yards allowed (281.8 per game). The pick: Jacksonville is 3-0 ATS following a SU loss in 2017, with those victories coming by 37, 21 & 27 points. Maybe I should just "lay it" but this low total has me more interested. The Colts are allowing 33.2 PPG on the road and after getting shut out at home by the Jags, I think the Colts are more than capable of at least putting up their season average on offense (just shy of 18 points). Make the Over an 8* play. |
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12-02-17 | Maple Leafs v. Canucks OVER 6 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: The 12-10-4 Vancouver Canucks snapped a three-game skid with a 5-3 victory over Nashville on Thursday to conclude a six-game road trip with a 3-2-1 mark. They return home Saturday and will host the 17-9-1 Toronto Maple Leafs, who have won the first two of a three-game trek through Western Canada, following up Tuesday's 4-1 triumph at Calgary with a 6-4 win over Edmonton on Thursday. Toronto: Auston Matthews (team-leading 13 goals and 26 points) had an assist in the first contest before scoring and setting up a goal against the Oilers, to extend his point streak to four games (one goal, four assists). William Nylander (5 goals / 15 assist) posted his first three-point performance of the season and the fourth of his career with a one-goal, two-assist effort versus the Oilers. Fourth-liners Matt Martin and Dominic Moore have collected five points (one goal, four assists) over the last five games, but Mitch Marner has gone ice-cold again after a recent warm stretch. The 20-year-old answered a seven-point performance over five games by being held off the scoresheet in each of his last five contests. Vancouver: Brock Boeser (team-leading 25 points), a roommate of Matthews at the 2016 IIHF World Junior Championships, has made quite the impression during his short time in the NHL. The 20-year-old has recorded 11 points (eight goals, three assists) in the past nine games and was named NHL Rookie of the Month for November. The Sedin twins have also continued their recent offensive surges with three-point performances versus the Predators, lifting Henrik's total to eight points (all assists) in his last six games while Daniel has seven (three goals, four assists) in that stretch. Both Sedins, who each own 15 points on the season, netted a goal in Vancouver's 6-3 loss to Toronto on Nov. 5 while Henrik set up Daniel's tally to open the scoring in a 3-2 shootout win over the Maple Leafs on Dec. 3, 2016. The pick: Toronto ranks 2nd in the NHL with 3.59 goals per game. That average actually climbs to 3.89 per on the road. Nine of Matthews' team-leading 13 goals have come on the road, where the Maple Leafs own a 9-4-1 record, so.I expect a high-scoring game here. Why not? The Maple Leafs have scored 17 goals in their past four games and seven of Vancouver's last eight games have gone "over the total." Make the Over a 10* play. |
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12-02-17 | Memphis v. Central Florida UNDER 82.5 | Top | 55-62 | Loss | -117 | 92 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: This year's AAC Championship between the 10-1 Memphis Tigers and 11-0 UCF Knights at Spectrum Stadium in Orlando is quite special. Memphis has a chance to win 11 games for the first time in school history while earning its sixth conference title. UCF looks to continue its perfect season while winning the school's fifth conference title. This showdown features the top-two point-producers in college football. Memphis ranks 2nd at 47.0 PPG and UCF 1st at 48.7 PPG. Better yet, the winner will earn a New Year's Six Bowl berth. Memphis: QB Riley Ferguson is completing 62.2 percent of his passes for 3,500 yards with 32 TDs and eight INTs. Ferguson has two quality RBs playing along with him in Henderson (1,052 YR / 9.1 YPC / 8 TDs) and Taylor (700 YR / 5.8 YPC / 12 TDs). Ferguson has 23 TD passes to go along with only three interceptions since the team's 40-13 loss at UCF in its fourth game of the season, one in which he had three INTs. WR Anthoy Miller (78 catches / 15.5 YPC / 14 TDs) holds almost every school receiving record. On the entire season, defense has been an issue for Memphis, which comes into this contest allowing 30.8 PPG on 453.5 YPG (112th). UCF: QB McKenzie Milton can match Ferguson, completing 69.1% for 3,301 yards with 30 TDs and six INTs. Memphis has the best RBs on the field but UCF's backfield depth has allowed them to average 198.9 YPG rushing, just a few YPG less than Memphis (202.5). The real edge UCF owns in this game is on the defensive side of the ball. The Knights allow more than a TD less per game (22.5) and just over 50 YPG less, at 399.0 per. Then there is also the Knights' 27 takeaways (17 INTs / 10 fumble recoveries), which leaves then tied with Miami-Fl. for the national lead with a plus-17 turnover margin. The pick: Memphis is seeking to avenge a 40-13 blowout loss at this same venue in Orlando back on Sep. 30 but note UCF leads this series 10-1 and is 5-0 ATS in its last five home meetings against Memphis. What changes here? Probably nothing but so much is at stake in this contest, that I believe that with this super-high over/under number, the under is the play. UCF owns a very good defense and Memphis has allowed fewer than 15 points in two of its last three game. Make the Under an 8* play. |
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12-01-17 | Wolves v. Thunder OVER 210.5 | Top | 107-111 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: Both the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Oklahoma City Thunder made 'noise' in the off-season in attempts to "close the gap" with the Golden State Warriors. Sure, OKC owns an impressive 108-91 home win over the Warriors back on Nov. 22 but at just 8-12, the "new-look" Thunder have been a huge disappointment. As for Minnesota, the Timberwolves are 13-9 overall and more notably, a conference-best 10-3 against the West. The two teams square off Friday night at Chesapeake Energy Arena, having already met twice this season in October. Minnesota has taken each of the first two, 115-113 in OKC and 119-116 in Minnesota. Minnesota: Jimmy Butler was the key addition of the off-season, coming from Chicago but the T-wolves also traded for PG Jeff Teague. Those two were added to young stars Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins, as Minnesota hoped to put itself in a position to challenge in the top-heavy West. The T-wolves have shown glimpses of what they "could be" but also show inconsistency, evidenced by them trading wins and losses over the last six games. They followed up a 92-89 loss at home to Washington on Tuesday with a 120-102 win the next night at New Orleans. "In the NBA, there's an excuse every night," Minnesota coach Tom Thibodeau told reporters. "Whether it's travel, injuries, back-to-backs. Or you can make good. When the ball goes up, you have to be ready to go." The team's starting-five are all averaging in double digits. Towns (20.4 & 11.7), Wiggins (19.0 & 4.1) and Gibson (10.8 & 8.3) start up front and Butler (17.5-5.4-4.5) and Teague (14.0 & 7.5 APG). Oklahoma City" So far, the pairing of new additions Paul George (20.5 & 5.9) and Carmelo Anthony (19.7 & 6.2) with reigning MVP Russell Westbrook (22.4-9.2-9.4) has not produced the desired result. Despite that emotional win over the Golden State Warriors last week, Oklahoma City continues to search for continuity among its stars. The Thunder are coming off a 121-108 loss at Orlando on Wednesday in which they squandered a second-half lead (Magic used a 26-3 run to break it open). By the way, the Magic entered that game on a nine-game losing streak!. It marked the Thunder's seventh straight road loss and fifth defeat in the past six games, overall. "We have to lock in," Westbrook told reporters. "That starts with me and I take ownership in everything that is going on because I've been here. I know the standards that we set here in Oklahoma City. I have to set an example. It starts with me and we're going to turn this thing around." Westbrook totaled 37 points and 11 rebounds in his fifth straight game with at least a double-double on Wednesday but committed seven turnovers and went for an x-ray after the game on a bruised left hand that came back negative. The pick: Minnesota is averaging 107.8 PPG (10th) but Thibodeau, a defensive-minded coach, has yet to get his team "up to speed." The T-wolves come in allowing 107.2 PPG (21st), while ranking dead-last in defensive FG percentage (48.3%). The Thunder have beaten up on bad teams at home, with a 4-0 ATS mark when laying more than nine points but Minnesota is not one of those "bad teams." Note the high scores of the first two meetings. Paraphrasing, "third verse, same as the first (two)!" Make the Over a 10* play. |
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11-30-17 | Maple Leafs v. Oilers OVER 6 | Top | 6-4 | Win | 102 | 24 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: Toronto's Auston Matthews is the reigning Calder Memorial Trophy recipient and he and the 16-9-1 Maple Leafs will face off against the current Hart Trophy winner in Edmonton's Connor McDavid, whose Oilers are a disappointing 10-13-2. "You don't really get too worked up about the whole matchup, individual matchups, that the media likes to make out," Matthews said before reiterating that "it's just another hockey game." Matthews leads Toronto in both goals (12) and points (24), while McDavid leads Edmonton in goals (10), assists (20) and points (30), Toronto: Matthews extended his assist streak to three games in Tuesday's 4-1 triumph over Calgary in the opener of a three-game trek through Western Canada for the Maple Leafs. Nazem Kadri (12 goals & 22 points) saw his career-best nine-game point streak come to halt on Nov. 24th but he scored in the third period on Tuesday to give him 11 points (six goals, five assists) in his last 11 contests. Kadri scored three goals in two encounters last season vs. the Oilers to increase his point total to 10 (six goals, four assists) in nine career meetings. Fellow forwards William Nylander (three assists) and Zach Hyman (one goal, two assists) are riding three-game point streaks while Nikita Zaitsev has scored in back-to-back contests. Edmonton: The Oilers just aren't scoring, as they come in with the NHL's 26th-ranked offense (2.68 goals per game), prompting head coach Todd McLellan to alter lines on a semi-regular basis. "Obviously you’d like to stick with a line for games in a row, but it hasn’t worked out that way," said McDavid, whoie could see Jesse Puljujarvi ascend to his top line along with Milan Lucic. Making matters worse for the Oilers is that Cam Talbot's availability is in question, as the workhorse goal is nursing an upper-body injury, prompting Edmonton to bring in a University of Alberta goaltender for Wednesday's practice. Coach Todd McLellan said that Talbot "tweaked something in his upper body" while making 29 saves in a 4-3 overtime win against Arizona on Tuesday. Should Talbot need a breather, backup Laurent Cam Talbot's availability is in question as the 30-year-old workhorse is nursing an upper-body injury, prompting Edmonton to bring in a University of Alberta goaltender for Wednesday's practice. Coach Todd McLellan said that Talbot "tweaked something in his upper body" while making 29 saves in a 4-3 overtime win against Arizona on Tuesday. Should Talbot need a breather, backup Laurent Brossoit will vie for his first win of the season as he owns an 0-3-0 mark with a 3.31 goals-against average and .881 save percentage. The pick: I'm assuming Brossoit will get the call but either way, I expect a higher-scoring game than most (read oddsmakers). For a generation of hockey fans, McDavid vs. Matthews will be an ever-evolving debate. For tonight, make the Over a 10* play. |
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11-29-17 | Grizzlies v. Spurs UNDER 195.5 | Top | 95-104 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: The Grizzlies are in the midst of an eight-game losing streak, falling to 7-12. General manager Chris Wallac head coach David Fizdale on Monday and made J.B. Bickerstaff the sixth head coach of his tenure when he announced him to replace Fizdale in the interim. Fizdale lasted 101 games. There is no such turmoil in San Antonio, where Gregg Popovich is the longest-tenured head coach in the NBA and R.C. Buford has served as general manager since 2002. While there is no turmoil in San Antonio, the 13-7 Spurs would sure love to get Kawhi Leonard back in the lineup. Memphis: Fizdale's firing comes one day after he benched star center Marc Gasol in the fourth quarter of a 98-88 home loss to the Brooklyn Nets, a move that didn't make his star player very happy. "I don't know the why," Gasol told reporters after the game. "...It's a first for me, trust me, and I don't like it one bit. I'm more (upset) than I can show and frustrated." Gasol leads the Grizzlies in scoring (19.1) and rebounding (9.1), as the team is trying to deal with the loss of PG Mike Conley (17.1 & 4.1 APG), who has missed the last six games with an Achilles injury and is not expected back until sometime in December. Tyreke Evan(17.7-5.1-3.4) has played well for Memphis but the Grizzlies are just not scoring enough at 98.8 PPG, which ranks 28th. San Antonio: Leonard's not back yet but the Spurs did have something to celebrate on Monday besides the team's 115-108 victory over Dallas (team's ninth win in 112 games). ninth win in the last 12 games. PG Tony Parker made his season debut on Monday, after rupturing his quadriceps tendon during the playoffs last spring and delivered six points and four assists in 14 minutes. "I'm always amazed by all the love from Spurs fans," Parker told reporters. "It's hard to describe the feeling, but I was just excited and just wanted to thank everybody for all the support. The city of San Antonio has been amazing, all the fans, the Spurs organization." Aldridge (22.2 & 8.3) has been the team's main scoring option with Leonard and Parker out, while three others have barely inched into double digit scoring territory. That trio is Gay (11.9 & 5.1), Gasol (11.8 & 8.0) and Green (10.4 & 4.1). The pick: When a team is having trouble scoring, San Antonio is not the place one wants to go to try to fix the problem. The Spurs are allowing 98.6 PPG (3rd) on the season. It's also not good news that the Grizzlies' top scorer (Gasol) is shooting 35.4 percent from the floor over the last five games and was just 6-of-17 before taking a seat on the bench Sunday. Not only has Memphis been struggling on offense, the Grizzlies have also been allowing more than 110 points per 100 possessions! The Spurs have plenty of experience dealing with missing parts (and now Parker is back!), so Memphis' eight-game slide could reach 10, as this Wednesday game is the first of back-to-back contests between the two teams, with the rematch set for Friday in Memphis. I'll stay away from laying the points but will make the Under a 10* play. |
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11-28-17 | Stars v. Golden Knights OVER 6 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: The Vegas Golden Knights have been quite a story in this current NHL season, as they get set to host the Dallas Stars Tuesday night on their second five-game winning streak of the season. Vegas is 15-6-1 (31 points), atop the Western Conference's Pacific Division by two points over the LA Kings and four over the Calgary Flames. The 12-10-1 Stars answered being shut out 3-0 in Colorado on Wednesday by winning 6-4 at home on Friday over Calgary, the team's second six-goal performance in four outings. The Stars will visit Las Vegas for the first time but lost their season-opener 2-1 to Vegas at home back on Oct. 6. Dallas: Tyler Seguin recorded his seventh hat trick as a member of the Stars in the game against Calgary and has a team-leading 23 points (12 goals / 11 assists) . Alexander Radulov has paid significant dividends since signing a five-year, $31.25 million contract in early July. He posted his fifth multi-point performance of the season when he scored and set up a goal versus the Flames to increase his point total to 18 (seven goals, 11 assists) over his last 14 games. However, fellow off-season acquisition Ben Bishop, he of the six-year, $29.5 million contract, has not been as good. Bishop is a mediocre 10-7-1 with a 2.76 GAA and .907 SP. Vegas: Linemates William Karlsson and Jonathan Marchessault have come up big in Golden Knights' second five-game winning streak of the season. Karlsson has scored at least once and recorded multi-point performances in each victory and Marchessault has collected a goal and two assists in each of the last three contests heading into Tuesday's home tilt versus the Dallas Stars. Karlsson leads with 22 points (13 & 9) and Marchessault is second with 21 points (8 & 13). That duo heads a team ranked second in scoring at 3.68 goals per game. Vegas has started four different goalies so far (making the team's fast start even more remarkable) and it's expected that Malcolm Subban will receive his first career start versus the Stars. He owns a 4-0-0 record, 1.87 goals-against average and .935 save percentage this season. The pick: While Dallas is an impressive 9-2-0 at home at American Airlines Center it brings a four-game road losing streak with it to Las Vegas, along with just a 3-8-1 road record on the season. Speaking of road records, Ben Bishop is just 2-6-0 with a 4.04 goals-against average and .872 save percentage on the road this season. Vegas is averaging 4.40 goals per game at home and even though Subban has those gaudy numbers, it's only four games. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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11-26-17 | Packers v. Steelers OVER 43.5 | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 56 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: The 5-5 Green Bay Packers' wild card hopes are quickly slipping away and they could sure use a win Sunday night at Heinz Field, after losing four of their last five games. The problem being, their opponents will be the 8-2 Pittsburgh Steelers, who have as won five straight games to tie the Patriots for the AFC's best record (Pittsburgh currently owns the tie-breaker for the No. 1 seed). This could have been a matchup of Super Bowl-winning QBs, Rodgers (one) vs. Roethlisberger (two) but instead Brett Hundley Green Bay: The Packers are 1-3 with Hundley starting and he was awful in last Sunday's 23-0 home loss to the Ravens. He had four (three INTs and one fumble) of Green Bay's five TOs and comes into this game averaging 136.8 YPG passing with two TDs and seven INTs (QB rating of 63.3). The team's leading rusher (Aaron Jones) has just 370 yards and the Packers average only 102.4 rushing YPG (19th). Green Bay's depth at WR hasn't meant much with Hundley under center,,as the Packers are averaging 14.3 PPG in his four starts. The defense checks in averaging 18th in both points allowed (23.0 per) and yards allowed (340.1 per). Pittsburgh: Ben Roethlisberger is not having one of his better years but he's off an excellent game in Week 11 (Thursday night at home vs. Tenn.), as he threw for 299 yards and four TDs. In guiding Pittsburgh to five straight wins, Big Ben has thrown for 1,328 yards with 10 TDs and a 102.7 passer rating. WR Antonio Brown leads the league in catches (70) and receiving yards (1,026) after hauling in 10 receptions and three scoring passes in the romp over Tennessee (six TDs on the season). Le'Veon Bell has had an uneven year (after a holdout) but is still the NFL's leading rusher with 886 yards. He also has 49 catches for another 308 yards. The Pittsburgh defense has not permitted more than 17 points during its five-game winning streak and currently ranks 2nd in points allowed (16.9 per) and 4th in total D (287.6 YPG). The pick: The Steelers are not just 8-2 but four of their final six games are at home. Except for that inexplicable home loss to the Jags (30-9), Pittsburgh has averaged 31.7 PPG in its other three games at Heinz Field (all wins). The total remains low because of Pittsburgh's strong defense and Hundley's struggles at QB but I'm calling for this game to go OVER and will make that an 8* play. |
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11-26-17 | Calgary v. Toronto OVER 52.5 | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: The 13-4-1 Calgary Stampeders ended the regular season on a three-game losing streak but their 28-25 home win on Nov. 19 over Edmonton has the Stampeders on track for their eighth Grey Cup in franchise history and fourth since the 2001 season when they visit the Toronto Argonauts at TD Place Stadium on Sunday in the CFL's 105th Grey Cup Final. Toronto was just 9-9 in the regular season but its 25-21 home win (also on Nov. 19) was enough to lift them into this game, giving the Argonauts a chance at their 17th Grey Cup in franchise history and third since the 2004 season. Calgary QB Bo Levi Mitchell is completing 63.9 percent of his passes for 4,700 yards, 23 touchdowns and 11 interceptions but it's Calgary's top-ranked defense which has gotten them this far. The Stampeders ranks first in the CFL in points allowed (19.4) and yards allowed (339.8).did not cover. Meanwhile, Toronto: QB Ricky Ray is completing 71.0 percent of his passes for 5,546 yards, 28 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Toronto is averaging 411.1 YPG (2nd) but has underachieved somewhat, as it's scoring 26.8 PPG, which ranks 6th. Defensively, Toronto allows 350.7 YPG (2nd-best next to Calgary) but the Argonauts are allowing 25.3 PPG (4th), about a TD higher than Calgary. The pick: Calgary has won the last eight meetings against Toronto with its last loss coming in September of 2013. The Stampeders outscored the Argonauts 64-31 in two wins this year but the Stampeders aren't the same team,as the team seemed to "stop playing" in November. Calgary did edge Edmonton to reach this game but it marked the fifth straight game in which the team did not cover. Meanwhile, the Argonauts have covered six of their last eight games. The over is 6-2 in Argonauts' last eight games and the over is 4-0 in the Stampeders last four playoff games. Two good defensive teams (but with two excellent QBs, as well) are going to play an OVER in this one. Make it a 10*. |
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11-26-17 | Heat v. Bulls OVER 196 | Top | 100-93 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: The "new-look" Chicago Bulls have gone from bad to worse. The Bulls were competitive in losses at the Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Lakers to begin the team's four-game road trip but then lost 110-80 at Utah on Wednesday, before getting "run out of the gym" in Oakland 143-94 by the Warriors on Friday. Chicago now owns the NBA's worst overall record at 3-14, as the Bulls get set to play four of their next five at home. Chicago welcomes the 9-9 Miami Heat to the United Center on Sunday afternoon. The Heat pulled off their best win of the season by ending the Boston Celtics' 16-game winning streak on Wednesday and avoided a letdown by going into Minnesota and toppling the Timberwolves 109-97 on Friday. Miami already has one win over the Bulls this season, 97-91 at home back on Nov. 1.. Miami: The Heat's Goran Dragic, Justise Winslow and Wayne Ellington combined to go 13-of-19 from three-point range in Friday's win at Minnesota with Miami scoring 109 points. The Heat are averaging 100.9 PPG (26th) and shoot 36.1% on threes (14th), so that game was hardly typical. PG Dragic (18.9-4.3-4.7) and center Whiteside (15.5 & 12.9) have Miami's two main 'guns' this season but the Miami Herald reported on Saturday that Whiteside could miss this contest with a sore left knee (he will be a game-time decision). Chicago: Rookie power forward Lauri Markkanen leads Chicago in scoring (14.6 points) but is shooting just 36.5 percent from the floor over the last 10 games and is 9-of-42 over the last three contests. "Defenses are keying on him," Hoiberg said of Markkanen, according to the Chicago Tribune. "A lot of teams are switching with him. We have to read those situations better. We're adding new things to our offense pretty much daily to try to get him in spots where he can be successful." Markkanen also is the team's top rebounder at 8.2 per game. Chicago is not scoring well (94.4 PPG ranks 29th) and not defending all that well either (107.3 PPG allowed ranks 22nd). The pick: If Whiteside doesn't play, his rebounding and interior defense will be missed way more than his offense (expect Markkanen to break out of his shooting slump). Meanwhile, Chicago guard duo of Dragic (see above) and Waiters (15.9 PPG) have to love the idea of going up against Chicago's inexperienced perimeter rotation of Kris Dunn, Jerian Grant, Justin Holiday, Denzel Valentine, Antonio Blakeney. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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11-26-17 | Predators v. Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: The Nashville Predators pushed the Pittsburgh Penguins to six games in last year's Stanley Cup Finals but opened the current season just 5-5-2 through Nov. 1 However, the Preds have done little wrong since, winning nine of their last 10 games, while averaging four goals. Nashville is now 14-6-2 (30 points), moving with five points of the West's top team, the St. Louis Blues. As for the Hurricanes, after putting together a 5-1-1 run from Nov. 7 through Nov. 19, they have allowed 11 goals while losing their last two games At 9-8-4 (22 points), Carolina is tied with Philly at the bottom of the eight-team Metropolitan Division. Nashville: “We haven’t played our best hockey yet,” Nashville defenseman P.K. Subban told reporters. “That’s the exciting thing about our team, is that we haven’t played our best hockey yet.” Filip Forsberg will attempt to extend his point streak to eight games when Predators take on the Hurricanes on Sunday afternoon. Forsberg owns a team-best 24 points and has collected three goals and seven assists during his streak while Subban (18 points) has posted six assists in his last four contests. Nashville is 6-for-11 with the man advantage over its last four games and 15-for-16 on the penalty kill in that span. Carolina: Victor Rask was back in the lineup for Friday's 5-4 loss to Toronto after being a healthy scratch for the previous two contests but his point drought reached eight games. Carolina also needs to get leading goal scorer Jeff Skinner (nine) going again, as the left wing recorded seven tallies in October but has been held to two this month. However, young forwards Teuvo Teravainen and Sebastian Aho have been on a roll of late. Taeravainen has recorded 12 points over his last six contests (he leads the team with 21 points), while Aho has scored five goals in his last six games after going without a tally in the first 15. The pick:Nashville is averaging a modest 2.33 GPG on the road and Carolina only 2.73 GPG at home. Nashville's Rinne is playing well (13-3-2, 2.31 GAA & .927 SP) plus Carolina's Scott Darling is better than his 6-6-2 record (2.71 GAA & .900 SP). Make the Under a 10*. |
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11-26-17 | Dolphins v. Patriots OVER 47 | Top | 17-35 | Win | 100 | 49 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: AFC foes (hardly rivals, anymore) meet Sunday afternoon in NFL Week 12 NFL play at Foxborough, as the 8-2 New England Patriots host the 4-6 Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins were once 4-2 but last Sunday's 30-20 home loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaners was Miami's fourth in a row. The two AFC wild card teams are currently both 5-5, so the Dolphins only enter one game back but they are tied with four other teams plus the Chargers just moved to 5-6 with their Thanksgiving Day win at Dallas. The Pats raised some eyebrows with their 2-2 start, particularly with a defense which couldn't stop anyone, especially through the air. However, all is right in "New England Land" these days, as the Pats' 33-8 beatdown of the Oakland Raiders in Mexico City last Sunday was the team's sixth straight win. The Pats and Steelers are tied for the AFC's best record at 8-2 (Pittsburgh currently owns the tie-breaker). Miami: Jay Cutler was back under center last Sunday for the Dolphins but he threw for just 83 yards, one TD touchdown and three INTs before leaving with a concussion. Matt Moore stepped in and completed 17 of 28 for 282 yards and a TD but to no avail (Miami lost by 10!). You tell me why Miami traded away Jay Ajayi, because he still owns 58 percent of Miami's current 804 rushing yards on the season? Moore will be under center for this one and surely won't get too much help from a running game averaging 80.4 YPG (28th) and is now without a quality RB. Miami's offense is averaging just 15.7 PPG (30th) on the season, while its defense is allowing 25.4 PPG (27th). New England: Brady was just "being Brady" against the Raiders, completing 30 of 37 for 340 yards and three TDs touchdowns. He's completing 68.7 percent on the season with 22 TDs and just two INTs (in attempts), for a QB rating of 110.09. The Pats lead the NFL in passing yards (304.6 per game) and now rank fourth in scoring at 29.0 PPG. The defense has made huge strides in keeping teams out on the end zone, as after allowing 32.0 PPG through the team's first four contests, the Pats are down to allowing 20.3 PPG on the season, to rank 12th (12.5 PPG allowed during the six-game winning streak!). The pick: The Dolphins come to Foxborough having lost eight in a row to the Pats in this venue (2-6 ATS) and there is no reason to believe Brady and Co. will have much trouble scoring here. However, while the Pats' D has cut down on its PPG, the team's defense is still giving up big chunks of yards and still ranks last in total yards allowed at 401.9 per. That can "catch up" to a defense and may just here, after Brady and Co. have established a 'cushion.' Make the Over an 8* play. |
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11-25-17 | Clippers v. Kings OVER 205 | Top | 97-95 | Loss | -103 | 21 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: The Los Angeles Clippers finally had something to be thankful for, as they went into the Thanksgiving break having snapped a nine-game losing streak with a 116-103 win at Atlanta on Wednesday. The 6-11 Clippers were also off last night, so they will try to make it back-to-back wins for the first time since opening the 2017-18 season at 4-0 when the team's road trip picks back up on the West Cost in Sacramento. The Kings are just 5-13 on the season but are also winners of four of their last five at home, after they went into their Thursday-Friday break with a 113-102 win over the Los Angeles Lakers at home on Wednesday. LA Clippers: Blake Griffin is taking on added leadership responsibilities this season with the departure of Chris Paul over the summer and had a triple-double in Wednesday's triumph (26-10-10). Griffin averaged 22.6 points during the nine-game slide but also shot 36.9 percent from the floor in that span (not good enough). Griffin's job got tougher with the announcement that guard Patrick Beverley (team's best perimeter defender) would miss the rest of the season with a knee injury. It's true that Wesley Johnson immediately stepped in to pick up some of the slack by exploing for a season-high 24 points on 8-of-10 shooting, including 6-of-7 from beyond the arc. However, note that while Johnson was the 4th overall pick by Minnesota back in 2010, he's averaging just 7.5 PPG for his career (currently his 8th). Wiliams (12.3) and Rivers (12.8) contribute double digits from the backcourt, Gallinari 12.8 PPG as a SF plus center Jordan is a double-double (10.5-13.8) man in the middle. The Clipps are middle-of-the-pack in both scoring at 105.6 PPG (15th) and in points allowed at 106.4 PPG (17th). Sacramento: The Kings are still searching for the right lineup combinations but got a strong boost from the reserves in Wednesday's 11-point win over the Lakers.Center Willie Cauley-Stein (10.2 & 6.0) led four reserves in double figures with 26 points in 28 minutes on Wednesday. “I don’t think there’s any bigs in this league that can guard me off the bounce, so I’m quick enough where I can get past big dudes and strong enough when there’s a little guy on me I can just take him in the post,” Cauley-Stein told the Sacramento Bee. Cauley-Stein is averaging 13.9 points at home but just 7.2 in 10 road games. The Kings shot a season-best 55.3 percent in the win over the Lakers. Veteran PF Randolph leads the team in scoring at just 12.9 PPG and on the season, as Sacramento's 94.3 PPG ranks dead-last among all NBA teams. The pick: However, Wednesday's 11-point home win (113 points) built on a developing trend that has seen the Kings average 100.0 PPG in winning four of their last five at home. That has me on "the over" in this one, making it a 10* play. |
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11-23-17 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State OVER 62.5 | Top | 31-28 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: The 114th edition of the Egg Bowl will be contested Thanksgiving night in Starkville when 5-6 Ole Miss (2-5 SEC) takes on 8-3 Mississippi State (4-3 SEC). The Rebels need a win to become eligible but in fact, will be playing their final game of the season as a result of a self-imposed postseason ban, which came in February after the NCAA found the program committed multiple violations under former coach Hugh Freeze. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs were ranked 14th in the latest CFP rankings and are hoping to improve their bowl status with a victory. Ole Miss guaranteed itself its second straight non-winning season after losing at home to Texas A&M 31-24 the last time out, while Miss. St. reached eight wins for the fifth time in Mullen's nine seasons with that 28-21 win at Arkansas. Ole Miss: The Rebels couldn't hold onto a 24-21 halftime lead against the Aggies and the seven-point loss snapped a two-game win streak. Junior QB Jordan Ta'amu moved into the starting role in mid-October after Shea Patterson (2,259 YP / 17-9 ratio) was lost to a season-ending injury. He compl eted 19 of 34 passes for 189 yards with two TDs (one interception) and enters completing 69.5% with nine TD and three INTs. A.J. Brown has 69 catches for 1,085 yards with 10TDs and RB Wilkins has 901 YR (6.4 YPC) and seven TDs. The offense averages 33.0 PPG (37th) but the defense ranks 114th in both points allowed (35.2 per game) and yards allowed (455.7 YPG). Mississippi State: QB Fitzgerald extended his own SEC record for 100-yard rushing games by a QB to 14 after rushing for 101 against the Razorbacks and needs only 52 more yards to move past ex-Bulldog Dak Prescott (2,521) and into third place on the conference's all-time rushing list from a signal-caller. He has 1,770 passing yards (15-10 ratio) but is most dangerous running the ball, with a team-high 968 yards (6.1 YPC / 14 TDs). He and RB Williams 944 YR / 4.6 YPC) lead a rushing game averaging 245.5 YPG (17th), The Bulldogs average 32.5 PPG (39th), about the same as Ole Miss, but the huge difference comes on the defensive side of the ball. Miss. St. allows 19.5 PPG (20th) on 297.2 YPG (9th). The pick: Tensions are always high when Mississippi and Mississippi State collide but this week's meeting seems even more intense than normal. In fact, the athletic directors from both schools sent out a request to fans, hoping to prevent emotions from boiling over on Thursday night. "In the spirit of sportsmanship, we ask that fans from both schools honor this storied rivalry with civility and respect for each other," Ole Miss athletic director Ross Bjork and Mississippi State athletic director John Cohen wrote in a joint statement. Fitzgerald accounted for 367 total yards, including a school-record 258 yards on the ground, and five total TDs (three passing / two rushing) in last year's 55-20 thrashing of Ole Miss, allowing Mississippi State to avenge a defeat in 2015 and take home the Golden Egg Trophy for the fifth time in eight tries under coach Dan Mullen. I also like the way QB Jordan Ta'amu has filled in for Patterson, so I expect a shootout. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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11-23-17 | Chargers v. Cowboys UNDER 48 | Top | 28-6 | Win | 100 | 52 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: The Los Angeles Chargers are off a 54-24 beatdown of the Buffalo Bills last Sunday but the win got them to just 4-6. The Dallas Cowboys are off a humiliating 37-9 loss to their division rival the Philadelphia Eagles, which came right after Dallas lost 27-7 in Atlanta. The Cowboys are now 5-5 and with star RB Ezekiel Elliott set to miss four more games, Dallas' playoff hopes are rapidly disappearing.The Chargers visit AT&T Stadium for the middle contest of the NFL's three-game Thanksgiving Thursday card. While this will be the Cowboys' 50th Thanksgiving contest, the Chargers will be participating in their first game on the holiday sinc) e 1969! LA Chargers: The Chargers benefited from Buffalo's "ridiculous" (editorial comment) decision to give last Sunday's start to a QB so "unready for prime time" that Nathan Peterman threw five INTs in just 14 pass attempts, with the first of his five picks being returned for a TD. The Chargers' D later returned a fumble for a score, as the 54 points represented the Chargers' highest-scoring performance in Philip Rivers' 195 consecutive starts since 2006. Speaking of Rivers, he passed for 251 yards (on 20 of 32 passing) and two TDs, both to Keenan Allen who caught 12 passes for 159 yards. RB Melvin Gordon added 80 rushing yards and a TD. Los Angeles has recovered from its 0-4 start and views this contest as crucial as its deficit in the AFC West is just two games thanks to Kansas City dropping four of its last five games. "We're not way out of the division and not way out of the hunt," Rivers said. "That's exciting and encouraging. It shouldn't be hard to keep us focused on the task at hand. ... Just be fired up that we still have everything in front of us." Dallas: The loss of "Zeke" is huge but the absence of LT Tyron Smith (Dak has been sacked 12 times the last two games!) plus LB Sean Lee sidelined have been no small factor in the in Cowboys getting outscored 64-16 in back-to-back losses. Prescott's solid start is beginning to unravel and the Cowboys are now tasked with scraping for a wild card spot with an injury-depleted team. The pick: All of the above noted, remember the Cowboys were actually ahead 9-7 at the half vs. the Eagles, before succumbing 30-0 in the second half. The Chargers will not have the 'cake-walk' of last week and I expect to see the Dallas team we saw in the first half last Sunday vs. the Eagles, not the second half. The Cowboys have scored just 16 points without Elliott, scoring just one TD (on a 21-yard drive). The play here is an 8* on the Under. |
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11-22-17 | Jets v. Kings OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: The Winnipeg Jets check in at 12-5-3 after their four-game winning streak ended Monday in Nashville. The Jets fell behind by four goals and a late rally fell shot in a 5-3 defeat. That contest was the opener a four-game road trip and it continues tonight at Staples Center where the Jets face the struggling Los Angeles Kings. LA began the season 11-2-2 but the Kings are just 1-5-0 since. However, they still lead the Pacific Division at 12-7-2. Winnipeg: The Jets got outscored 3-0 and out-shot 19-7 in Monday's decisive second period at Nashville. Mathieu Perreault continues to spark the Jets’ fourth line since returning from a lower-body injury, scoring twice to give him four goals and one assist in three games. “We’ve been pretty darn consistent after our first two (games) that we started the season,” Jets head coach Paul Maurice told reporters after Winnipeg suffered just its third loss in regulation since an 0-2-0 start. Center Mark Scheifele picked up an assist Monday and is tied with forward Blake Wheeler for the team lead with 25 points. Goaltender Connor Hellebuyck ranks in the top-10 of the league in goals-against average (2.45) and save percentage (.925), made just 24 saves, while allowing five goals (.828 SP) in a rare rough performance Monday. LA Kings: Speaking of goaltenders struggling, Jonathan Quick is one of the top goaltenders in the NHL and his early-season play is a big reason why the Kings lead the Pacific Division. However, he is mired in a five-start losing streak entering Wednesday’s home game. Quick surrendered three goals in less than 12 minutes in Sunday’s 4-2 loss at Vegas, but remains in the top-10 in the NHL in save percentage (.926) and goals against average (2.47). The Kings remain one of the best defensive teams in the league, leading the NHL in penalty kill (90.1 percent) while ranking second in goals against per game (2.38). Center Trevor Lewis has scored goals in consecutive games while center Anze Kopitar, who leads the Kings with nine goals, 14 assists and 23 points, is pointless in his past two games following a 10-game point streak. The pick: Both goaltenders are off shaky efforts and while the knee-jerk reaction is to expect bounce-backs, I'm saying make the Over an 8* play. |
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11-21-17 | Bulls v. Lakers OVER 210.5 | Top | 94-103 | Loss | -106 | 15 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: LA rookie Lonzo Ball is in the spotlight every game and his "learning experience" has often been painful (31.3 FG percentage, including 22.8 percent on threes). However, he does come into this home game with the Bulls having produced two triple-doubles in the past five games. Ball had 11 points, a career-best 16 rebounds and 11 assists in Sunday's 127-109 victory over the Denver Nuggets.The Lakers are 7-10 overall and welcome the 3-11 Chicago Bulls to Staples Center on Tuesday, in the NBA's lone contest. LA Lakers: Head coach Luke Walton was impressed with Ball's latest outing. "It's what we've been saying the whole time, even when he's not scoring the ball, he has rebounds, assists and steals," Walton told reporters. "Sixteen is a lot, (but) I'm not totally shocked by it. He's really good down there on the glass." Power forward Julius Randle (12.2 & 6.7) had a superb outing with 24 points, seven rebounds and five assists in the victory over Denver. Kyle Kuzma (a rookie from Utah) leads the Lakers in scoring at 16.5 PPG and also tops the team at seven rebounds per game. The pick: This game will also features the latest matchup between twin brothers Brook Lopez of the Lakers and Robin Lopez of the Bulls. Robin has never come close to averaging more points than Brook in any of their previous nine seasons in the NBA but Robin has closed the gap significantly this season. Robin comes in averaging 13.3 points after never averaging more than 11.3 for a season, while Brook is averaging 15.4 points, down from his career average of 18.5. The Bulls are a pathetic 1-7 on the road, allowing 109.1 PPG. Meanwhile, a "typical" LA home game averages 217.1 PPG. That makes this a 10* play on the Over. |
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11-21-17 | Bowling Green v. Eastern Michigan UNDER 59.5 | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: A pair of 2-5 MAC schools will conclude their respective 2017 seasons Tuesday night at Rynearson Stadium when the Eastern Michigan Eagles host the Bowling Green Falcons. Bowling Green is hoping to end the year on a positive note after suffering a humiliating 66-37 defeat at the hands of the Toledo Rockets (a bitter rival) as a 17-point home dog in its last contest. The Falcons trailed just 24-21 at the half but were outscored 35-16 over the final two quarters. Meanwhile, Eastern Michigan is aiming for back-to-back wins following a 27-24 victory at the Miami (Ohio). Bowling Green: Mike Jinks' second season at BG is coming to a close and it hasn't been pretty. After going 4-8 SU & ATS in his first season, the Falcons have been even worse in 2017, entering this final game 2-9 SU & ATS. Doing the math, that's 6-17 SU & ATS mark. The Falcons don't have much of an offense (24.8 PPG ranks 92nd) and the defense is dreadful, allowing 38.4 PPG (124th) on 519.5 YPG (127th). Eastern Michigan: The Eagles, like the Falcons are just 2-5 in MAC play but they have two more wins (4-7, overall) and more importantly, are a money-making 8-3 ATS. EMU's offense is no better than BG's (averaging 25.4 PPG) but on the defensive side of the ball, Eastern Michigan has allowed 22.6 PPG (37th) on 355.7 YPG (32nd). The pick: Eastern Michigan won 28-25 at Bowling Green in last year's matchup but that was just the Eagles' second win in 13 games since 1990 (both victories were by just three points). Meanwhile, Bowling Green's 11 wins in that span have come by an average margin of 19 PPG. However, the current Bowling Green team makes it impossible to back the Falcons here in 2017. Then again, the Falcons have played way better on offense since freshman Jarrett Doege has taken over. Doege has completed 59 of 91 (64.8%) in his three starts, throwing for 738 yards with nine TD passes and just one INT. BG has averaged 36.3 PPG in that span. However, as noted, EMU's defense is the reason the team is 8-3 ATS. Let me also note that the last six Bowling Green games have averaged 73.0 PPG, with all "going over." Enough already! I say play UNDER and make it a 10*. |
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11-20-17 | Falcons v. Seahawks OVER 45.5 | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: The Atlanta Falcons an are defending NFC champions but at 5-4 while playing in the NFC South with the 8-2 Saints and 7-3 Panthers, this MNF game at CenturyLink Field. in Seattle against the Seahawks is starting to look like a "must-win" contest. The Seahawks come in 6-3 and with the Rams losing at Minnesota on Sunday to fall to 7-3, Seattle can move back into a tie with LA for first-place in the NFC West. A Seattle loss would leave them at 6-4, tied with the Falcons and Lions for the NFC's final wild card spot (tie-breakers would decide 'the winner!'). Boston line is, this is an important game for all involved. Atlanta: The Falcons hope to build off their 27-7 Week 10 win over the Cowboys. Matt Ryan was the league's MVP in 2016 (69.9% / 4,944 yards / 38-7 ratio / 117.1 QB Rating) but has been nowhere-near that good in 2017. He's completing 66.5% with a 13-8 ratio and a QB rating of 93.9. WR Julio Jones is also off his production of the last few seasons (has one TD catch!) and is battling ankle injuries. RB Devonta Freeman (515 YR / 4.4 YPC / 5 TDs) sustained a concussion against the Cowboys and is expected to miss here. However, backup Tevin Coleman rushed for a season-high 83 yards after Freeman was injured early last week (399 YR / 4.8 YPC on the season). Atlanta (21.9 PPG ranks 16th) is averaging a dozen points fewer than last season's league-leading average of 33.8 and had failed to score more than 17 in its last four losses before posting its highest point total since Week 3. Rayn and the passing offense ranks 11th overall with 251.6 YPG through the air. the defense checks in allowing 19.9 PPG (11th) on 311.9 YPG (8th). Seattle: The Seahawks come in winners of five of their last six and surely will be seeking some revenge for last year's. Russell Wilson is completing 62.7 percent of his passes for 2,543 yards with 19 TDs and just six INTs. Wilson has two or more TD passes in six of his last seven games and has carried the offense, which is averaging 23.4 PPG (12th. Doug Baldwin has a team-high 54 catches while TE Jimmy Graham (39 catches) has six TDs in the past five games. RB Eddie Lacy is expected to return after sitting out one week with a groin injury but the ground game has been ineffective since rookie Chris Carson was lost for the season. Seattle enters averaging 100.7 YPG (23rd). On defense, Seattle lost Richard Sherman for the rest of the 2017 season in the team's last game vs. Arizona. This is the second time in back-to-back seasons the Seahawks have lost a member of the Legion of Boom for the year with an injury. Last year, safety Earl Thomas was shelved after breaking a leg in December. The defense never recovered. The 2017 version of the Legion of Boom allows 18.3 PPG (6th) on 318.9 YPG (10th). the pick: The Seahawks lost last year in Atlanta 36-20 in the Divisional Round and with the team's D less than 100%, will likely need to score to win this all-important game tonight. Ryan has become the fastest quarterback to 40,000 yards passing in league history and as noted above, Russell Wilson has been carrying the Seattle offense for most of the season. Expect a shoot-out between these two QBs. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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11-20-17 | Devils v. Wild OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 112 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: The New Jersey Devils opened 9-2-0 but tonight in Minnesota, hope to avoid a third straight loss when they conclude their four-game road trip. New Jersey began its trip with a 7-5 triumph in Chicago but was shut out in an overtime loss at Toronto on Thursday and dropped a 5-2 decision in Winnipeg two days later. The setback against the Jets was just the second regulation loss on the road this season for the Devils but the fourth overall defeat in their last five away from home (1-2-2). The 9-8-2 Minnesota Wild are seeking a third consecutive home victory, as they come off a 3-1 loss at Washington on Saturday. New Jersey: The Devils are just 2-3-3 since that 9-2-0 start but the team's 25 points still leave them in a tie atop the Metropolitan division with Columbus and Pittsburgh (check out the standings, this is one tough division!). Rookies Nico Hischier and defenseman Will Butcher are tied for second on the team with 15 points apiece but they have combined for only four goals. Brian Gibbons owns a team-leading nine goals on the season. Minnesota: Nino Niederreiter netted the lone tally for the Wild in their loss at Washington, extending his goal-scoring streak to three games and his point run to five contests (points on the season). Jason Zucker's string of consecutive contests with a goal ended at five in the setback but the 25-year-old leads the team with 11 goals in 19 games and is halfway toward matching the career high he set in 79 contests last season. Eric Staal leads the team with 17 points and has collected nine points over his last seven games. The pick: New Jersey Devils goalie Corey Schneider has played in plenty of road games against the Minnesota Wild but very rarely under ideal conditions. When Schneider was backing up Roberto Luongo in Vancouver (early in his career), Luongo seemingly would always struggle in Minnesota, Schneider would usually come into the game sometime in the second period in relief, when the Wild had already built a big lead. Now he's the Devils' "main man," entering with a 7-4-2 record (2.88 GAA & .911 SP). Minnesota's Devan Dubnyk (8-6-1, 2.48 GAA & .922) has not yet rounded into last year's form (40 wins). Will he? New Jersey is 7-3 to the over on the road so far and I'm making the Over an 8* play in this one. |
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11-19-17 | Eagles v. Cowboys OVER 48 | Top | 37-9 | Loss | -110 | 119 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: In the midst of Jerry Jones' feud with Roger Goodell, Week 11's SNF game will be played at AT&T Stadium ("Jerry's House") between the 8-1 Philadelphia Eagles and the 5-4 Dallas Cowboys. Philly's lone loss came back in Week 2 (at KC), so coming off a bye week, the Eagles enter on a seven-game winning streak (6-1 ATS). The Eagles have essentially 'put away' all teams in the NFC East except the Cowboys but a win here in Dallas would all but eliminate any chance the Cowboys would have of challenging Philly for the division title. Philadelphia: Second-year QB Carson Wentz has quickly developed into "the real deal" in his sophomore season. He's completing 60.5 percent for 2,262 yards with 23 TDs and just five INTs, giving him a 104.1 QB rating. LeGarrette Blount is the leading Eagles rusher with 504 yards but the Eagles made a trade deadline deal with the Dolphins to acquire Jay Ajayi. He ran for 77 yards (on just eight carries) in his first game with Philly and note that he ran for 1,272 yards on 4.9 YPC and eight TDs in 2016 for Miami. Philly's ground game is averaging 136.8 YPG (4th) but it will be better with the addition of Ajayi, if for no other reason than the Eagles now have two No. 1-quality RBs in case of injury. TE Zach Ertz aims to return from a two-game absence due to an ailing hamstring and pick up where he left off. Ertz leads all NFC tight ends in receptions (43), yards (528) and TDs (six) this season. Off-season acquisition WR Jeffrey is also coming into his own with 34 catches (14.7 YPC) and five TD grabs. Philly's offense ranks second in scoring (31.4 PPG) and the defense has more than held its own, allowing 19.9 PPG (11th) on 315.9 YPG (10th). Dallas: The irreplaceable Ezekiel Elliott finally began serving his 6-game suspension (five games left) last week in Atlanta. However, Elliott's absence was not the reason Dak Prescott was sacked eight times by Atlanta's D, including an amazing six solo sacks by DE Adrian Clayborn. The Cowboys ran for 107 yards (5.1 YPC) but Dak threw for just 176 yards. Throw in the lost yardage from all the sacks, and the Cowboys had just 233 yards for the game, while scoring seven points. Prescott has thrown for 1,994 yards with 16 TDs and just four INTs (no "sophomore jinx" here) but the team can't replace Elliott's 783 rushing yards and seven scores. Dez Bryant is tops in receiving for the Cowboys with 478 yards and four TDs on 42 catches. However, he's been slowed by an ailing knee which has limited him to just 39 yards receiving in two of his last three games. The Dallas D is middle-of-the-pack, allowing 22.8 PPG (17th) on 325.9 YPG (15th). The pick: I just don't see Dallas slowing Wentz and Co, as the Cowboys' pass D allows 66.6% completions and has only five INTs (on 323 pass attempts), while allowing 16 TD passes. Philly's running was among the best in the NFL and it's now added Ajayi. These are desperate times for Dallas' playoff hopes and the Cowboys won't go down without a fight. However, they'll have to score to win this one. Make the Over an 8* play. |
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11-19-17 | Avalanche v. Red Wings UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: Detroit has won two in a row after a 3-1 triumph against Buffalo on Friday and boast at least one point in seven of their last nine contests (6-2-1), having turned things around after a six-game losing streak from Oct. 16-26. The Red Wings are 10-8-2 as they welcome the Colorado Avalanche to the team's new downtown home, Little Caesars Arena. The Avalanche are coming off a 5-2 loss at Nashville but with their 9-8-1 start, have put last year's 22-56-4 season (just 48 points) in the rear-view mirror. Colorado: The Avs had gone 9-for-26 on the power play over the previous seven games but went scoreless on seven opportunities against the Predators. “There’s a reason why they went to the Stanley Cup final last year,” Avalanche captain Gabriel Landeskog told reporters. “If we score on the power play in the first period to take the lead I think it would have been a different game. … Just a missed opportunity there - basically the whole first period we had a man-advantage and just didn’t capitalize.” Colorado's top line of Landeskog (team-high eight goals), Nathan MacKinnon (team-best 20 points) and Mikko Rantanen had been red hot lately but were kept off the scoresheet by Nashville. Detroit: The Red Wings are getting strong goal-tending and have improved on the power play (8-for-20, last seven games) as they prepare to face Colorado. Dylan Larkin has notched two goals and a pair of assists in the last two games to tie Anthony Mantha for the team lead in points with 19 while defenseman Mike Green boasts 17 points after recording four assists in the last four contests. Goalie Jimmy Howard continues to string together solid performances, allowing eight goals over his last five games (3-1-1). The pick: The Avalanche have played much better this year but they are still struggling on the road, going 3-7-0, while averaging only 2.40 GPG. The Red Wings have had little trouble with the Avs recently, having earned at least one point in 10 of the last 11 meetings. Colorado's road woes combined with Jimmy Howard's strong play recently in goal set up a 10* play on the under.. |
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11-19-17 | Chiefs v. Giants UNDER 44 | Top | 9-12 | Win | 100 | 111 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: The Kansas City Chiefs and New York Giants were both playoff teams in 2016 but when the Chiefs visit MetLife Stadium on Sunday afternoon, the Chiefs come in with an AFC West-leading record of 6-3, while the Giants take the field an abysmal 1-8. However, let's also note that the Chiefs come into this contest just 1-3 after opening 2017 at 5-0. Then again, most feel as if the Giants hit rock bottom last Sunday, falling to the then 0-9 Niners by the score of 31-21! Kansas City: Alex Smith's "career season" continues, as he enters having completed 69.6 percent with 18 TDs and just one INT in 293 pass attempts (QB rating is 113.9). Rookie RB Hunt has cooled off but he comes into the team's 10th game with 800 yards rushing (5.2 YPC) and four TDs, along with 32 catches for another two TDs. TE Kelce (51 catches / 5 TDs) and WR Hill (40 catches / 4 TDs), are also quality contributors. Maybe KC would have a win or two more if the team's defense wasn't giving up 3903.YPG, which ranks 30th. That said, KC does rank better in points allowed, at 23.1 PPG which ranks 19th. NY Giants: The Giants season began poorly and it's never gotten better. Eli may be making his 209th consecutive start at QB in this one but it sure feels like his time as the Giants' No. 1 QB is coming to end. Losing OBJ and Marshall to injury surely didn't help, nor has the fact that the Giants have almost no running game, averaging 89.8 YPG (25th). Eli's numbers aren't awful (64.6% with 14 TDs and 6 INTs), especially considering the circumstances but the bottom line is the bottom line. The Giants are scoring only 16.7 PPG, which ranks 29th. Defensively, after allowing an NFC-best 17.6 PPG, the Giants have allowed 26.4 PPG to rank 28th in the NFL. The pick: The Chiefs should play well coming out of their bye week (Reid-coached teams are 16-2 in games following a week off!) but KC has looked like a different team since that 5-0 start. Smith is still not turning the ball over but Hunt seems to have "hit a wall,' averaging only 47.8 YPG rushing in the team's 1-3 run. The Giants have yet to score more than 24 points in any game in 2017 and after last week's loss to the 49ers, seem like a 'lost' team. Make the Under an 8* play. |
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11-18-17 | Navy v. Notre Dame UNDER 62 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 91 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: Notre Dame's CFP hopes were likely dashed when the team lost last Saturday night in Miami, 41-8 to the Hurricanes. The 8-2 Fighting Irish (now No.9 in the CFP rankings) will try to pick up the pieces this Saturday afternoon, when they welcome the Navy Midshipmen to South Bend. Navy ended a two-game slide with last Saturday's 43-40 win over SMU, although once again the Midshipmen struggled with inconsistency. Against SMU, Navy coughed up a 34-11 halftime before winning on a FG on the game's final play. Navy payed in last year's AAC championship game but this year's team is a more modest 6-3 overall, including just 4-3 in the AAC West. Navy: The Midshipmen won the yardage battle 559-426 with EVERY yard coming on the ground. QB Malcolm Perry threw just ONE pass and it was intercepted. However, Perry ran for 282 yards and four TDs. RB Anthony Gargiulo ran for 145 yards and a TD but Navy did little or nothing in the second half. Perry adds more speed than Abey and showed it off last Saturday. However, Perry injured his ankle toward the end of the win and could find himself back on the sidelines this weekend. Navy is still shuffling through its QB options. "Zach will definitely be back in the mix and I'll turn this back over to (quarterbacks coach Ivin Jasper)," Navy head coach Ken Niumatalolo told reporters. "We'll have to discuss it as a staff and see where we're at. We have to find out Malcolm's health and Zach's health." Regardless of the QB, Navy ranks first in the nation at 369.8 YPG on the ground. Notre Dame: The Irish rank 6th in rushing (303.2 YPG) bu had just 109 rushing yards vs. Miami. Josh Adams (1,231 YR / 8.0 YPC / 10 TDs) totaled 40 yards on 16 carries. QB Brandon Wimbush completed only 10-of-21 for 119 yards and a touchdown but threw a pair of interceptions, including a 65-yard "pick six." He was also was limited to 24 yards rushing and a lost fumble on 11 carries. Ian Book was no relief, as he connected on 3 of 6 for 33 yards and another interception. Both were overwhelmed by the situation. However, we know Navy's D in no way resembles Miami's. The offense comes in averaging 38.0 PPG (15th) but the defense allows just 20.7 PPG (30th). The pick: Let's repeat: Navy leads all FBS teams in rushing yards per game (369.8) while Notre Dame ranks sixth (303.2). The clock will be running all game in this one. Navy's win last Saturday to become bowl eligible for the 14th time in the last 15 seasons. With that accomplished, Navy hopes to add a "signature win." Notre Dame can't help but be somewhat flat after the 'Canes 'killed' its Final 4 hopes and don't forget, "the clock will be running all game!" Make the Under an 8* play. |
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11-17-17 | Rangers v. Blue Jackets OVER 6 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: The NY Rangers opened the season just 3-7-2 but excellent special teams play keyed a six-game winning streak, as New York was 8-for-19 on the power play and 13-for-14 on the penalty in that stretch. However, the Rangers' winning streak ended with a thud Wednesday in Chicago, falling 6-3. The 9-8-2 Rangers will now try to earn a split of the two-game road trip when they visit the 11-7-1 Columbus Blue Jackets on Friday night. The teams have already met twice, with the Blue Jackets posting a 3-1 win in Columbus on Oct. 13 and New York winning 5-3 at home on Nov. 6.NY Rangers: When I noted that the team's win streak ended with a thud in Chicago, I wasn't exaggerating. New York allowed FIVE third-period goals in the 6-3 setback to the Blackhawks. “We got what we deserved,” Rangers head coach Alain Vigneault said. “We didn’t deserve to win and we didn’t.” In the streak-busting loss at Chicago, the score was tied at one entering the third period before the dam broke loose and Artem Anisimov's hat trick chased Rangers goalie Henrik Lundqvist. Lundqvist was disappointed with his performance but he won all six games during the winning streak before he was yanked and will make his eighth consecutive start. He has been a workhorse so far for the Rangers, starting 16 of 19 games. Defenseman Brendan Smith, acquired at the trade deadline last season and signed to a four-year, $17.4 million contract in June, will finally return to the lineup Friday after being a healthy scratch for six straight games. “Brendan’s handled this as a pro, stayed focused, worked hard," Vigneault said. "He wasn’t happy, there’s no doubt.” Columbus: The Blue Jackets have halted a four-game skid with back-to-back 2-1 victories, with both games being decided beyond regulation. Goalie Sergei Bobrovsky was responsible for making a spectacular highlight-reel save in each contest. “Right now, the Columbus Blue Jackets own the best save of the year in the highlights, and the second best save of the year,” head coach John Tortorella said of the reigning Vezina Trophy winner. Bobrovsky has needed to be spectacular, because the Blue Jackets are struggling mightily to score goals. They have one goal in regulation in the past four games. They haven't scored on the power play in six games, going 0 of 15. Their power play is currently the worst in the NHL at 9.6 percent.The pick: However, expect Bobrovsky to be tested here by New York's power play. Sure, it was 0-3 vs. Chicago but it had been outstanding in going 8 for 19 during the win streak. Zibanejad (team-leading 19 points) has 10 power-play points to rank fourth in the league. New York's Lundqvist has been a workhorse but his numbers are not great, as he's got a 3.04 GAA and .904 SP. Make the Over a 10* play.
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11-16-17 | Xavier v. Wisconsin OVER 146 | Top | 80-70 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: The 2-0 Xavier Musketeers are currently No. 15 in the AP poll and have become a regular in the top-25 plus have been known for deep NCAA tourney runs for quite some time now (Xavier has played in 15 of the last 17 NCAA tourneys). The Wisconsin Badgers are also no strangers to NCAA tourney action, as they are tied with Gonzaga with 19 consecutive tourney appearances. Wisconsin and Gonzaga trail only Michigan St. (20), Duke (22) and Kansas (28) for active NCAA active streaks plus Wisconsin's 13 NCAA wins ties them with Kentucky, just one win less than North Carolina's 14, for most tourney wins these past four seasons. Wisconsin welcomes Xavier to the Kohl Center and while the Badgers are not currently ranked (lost four starters from LY's 27-win team), they have also opened 2-0. Xavier: Trevon Blueitt led the team with 26 points on 8 of 14 shooting with five 3-pointers threes and a team-high nine rebounds in the team's 101-75 rout of Rider in its last outing. Xavier also scored 101 points in its first game, holding Morehead St. to just 49 points. 6-6 guard Blueitt (a preseason All-American) leads four double digit scorers at 25.5 PPG (also 7.0 RPG),. He's joined by fellow guard Macura (16.0-3.5-5.0) plus big men like the 6-9 Jones (15.0 & 8.5) and the 6-8 Gates (13.0 & 3.5). Wisconsin: The Badgers are coming off an 89-61 beatdown of Yale in their last outing. Guard Khalil Iverson led the team with 17 points on 8 of 9 shooting from the foor with a team-high three assists, while fellow guard D’Mitrik Trice scored 14 points on 6 of 7 shooting with a pair of threes and three steals. The 7-0 Andy Van Vliet added 13 points and 6-10 Ethan Happ had 12 points. Happ, like Blueitt, is a preseason All-American. He is the lone returning starter and checks in averaging 16.0 & 11.0 after two games. The pick: Xavier will not forget the last meeting between the two schools, as Wisconsin KO'd the Musketeers on a buzzer-beating three-pointer by Bronson Koenig in a 2016 NCAA Tournament game that catapulted the Badgers to the Sweet 16. The 'sting' of that 66-63 setback still lingers for many Musketeer players, coaches and fans, as Xavier meets Wisconsin in this game which is part of the Gavitt Tipoff Games tournament. No 66-63 final this time around, as the Over is a 10* play. |
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11-15-17 | Pacers v. Grizzlies UNDER 209 | Top | 116-113 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: The 7-6 Memphis Grizzlies open a four-game homestand against the 6-8 Indiana Pacers on Wednesday. The Grizzlies return home off a 2-3 road trip and will take the court having lost five of seven overall, since opening 5-1. David Fizdale's team is 0-3 so far against teams from the East Conference, so Memphis will be out to snap that streak, as well. The Pacers may play the perfect foil, as they enter on a 1-5 stretch that includes Sunday's 118-95 home loss to Houston, plus have lost five in a row at Memphis! Indiana: Victor Oladipo scored a game-high 28 points in Sunday's loss to teh Rockets and is th team's leading scorer thsi season, averaging 23.4 PPG. Center Myles Turner 914.3 & 8.9) is back after missing seven games and the Pacers saw rookie Sabonis (13.3 & 9.8) play well in his absence and since, coming off the bench. All five of Indiana's starters are in double digits, with Young (13.6 & 6.0), Bogdanovic (13.3) and Collison (11.6 & 6.5 APG) rounding out the group. The Pacers both shoot and allow a 47.6 percentage in field goals, which puts them near the top of the league in FG percentage (4th) and near the bottom in defensive FG percentage (29th). The Pacers average 108.0 PPG (9th) and allow 109.1 PPG (24th). Memphis: PG Mike Conley made just 2-of-12 shots in the Grizzlies' latest loss, continuing his season-long struggles. Conley is averaging 17.1 PPG but shooting only 38.1 percent from the floor, including 31.2% on threes. Center Gasol (18.9 & 9.0) and wing Evans (18.5-4.9-3.1) have been Memphis most consistent scorers (Evans is averaging 24.7 in six games this month). Rookie Dillon Brooks matched a season-high with 19 points against the Rockets and is shooting 54.8 percent from the floor over a four-game stretch and comes in averaging 9.3 & 4.4. However, defense remains the team's 'calling card,' as the Grizzlies hold opponents to 43.1 percent shooting (2nd) and 99.9 PPG (5th). The pick: Expect that Memphis defense to control the flow of this contest, making the Under an 8* play. |
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11-15-17 | Toledo v. Bowling Green OVER 65 | Top | 66-37 | Win | 100 | 23 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: The Toledo Rockets will travel about 25 miles down I-75 to Doyt Perry Stadium to take on the Bowling Green Falcons this Wednesday night in MAC play. The Rockets lost badly at Ohio U last Wednesday (38-10), dropping them to 8-2 (5-1 in MAC West play) on the season. The good news is, Toledo had beaten Northern Illinois 27-17 in its previous game, so the Rockets still control their destiny in the MAC West, as they own the tie-breaker over the Huskies, who are also 5-1. Bowling Green lost a week ago Tuesday 38-28 at Buffalo and enter this contest against its long-time rival just 2-8 (2-4 in the MAC East). Toledo: The Rockets only trailed the Bobcats 10-7 at the half last week but got rolled in the second half and by game's end got out-gained 532-to-316 in total yards (Ohio U ran for 393 yards!). The Rockets are averaging 36.1 PG (25th) with a balanced offense (294.0 YPG passing and 205.3 YPG on the ground). QB Logan Woodsid has completed 64.8% of his passes on the season for 2,912 yards with 20 TDs and two INTs. The ground game ranks 31st in the nation, led by a trio of RBs, Swanson (854 YR / 5.1 YPC / 11 TDs), Seymour (544 YR / 6.6 YPC) and Thompson (466 YR / 5.5 YPC). Swandson's banged up but that's the beauty of the team's at the RB position. The defense imploded last week in Athens but that's not typical, as despite that effort Toledo comes in allowing 25.8 PPG to rank 60th (there are 130 FBS schools). Bowling Green: The Falcons fought back after trailing by a 21-7 margin at the end of the 1st quarter, last week at Buffalo but the Bulls held on for a 10-point win. The Falcons were out-gained by Bulls by a 582-394 margin, something which has become familiar. BG averages only 23.6 PPG (98th) on 380.8 YPG, while allowing 35.6 PPG on 507.8 YPG (127th). Freshman Jarret Doege is the latest QB for struggling BG and he completed 28 of 43 passes for 294 yards and three TDs. However, when the defense allows 38 points on 582 yards, improved QB play doesn't mean all that much. The pick: Toledo holds its fate in its hands and needs only to beat struggling BG and then Western Michigan (at home) in its season-finale, to earn a place in the MAC title game. Mike Jinks is 6-16 SU and ATS in his second season at Bowling Green and it's unlikely even the presence of a bitter rival like Toledo will be enough for the Falcons to earn a "W." However, I like what I see from Doege and while the BG defense will be all but helpless against Toledo's well-balanced offense (ready to roll after last week's 10-point effort), That said, expect Doege to help BG to put points on the board, as well. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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11-15-17 | Niagara v. Minnesota UNDER 154.5 | Top | 81-107 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: Richard Pitino's Minnesota Golden Gophers are 2-0 and ranked 15th in the latest AP poll. It's safe to say that regardless how the Gophers' season plays out, the 2017-18 season will have gone much better for Richard Pitino, than for his dad, Rick. Minnesota will try to avoid an emotional letdown after a huge road victory when it returns home Wednesday night to take on Niagara in a non-conference contest. The Golden Gophers put up 50 points and shot better than 60 percent from the floor in the second half to rally for an impressive 86-74 victory in front of a raucous crowd at Providence on Monday. Niagara was just 10-23 last season but opened this season with a 77-75 win over St. Bonaventure 77-75 on Friday, the first time the school has won its season-opener since 2011-12! Niagara: The Purple Eagles did win just 10 games last season but all five starters are back, including return one of the top backcourts in the MAAC, featuring seniors Kahlil Dukes and Matt Scott, who combined to average 32.5 PPG last season, while making 130 three-pointers. That duo led the way against St. Bonny's, as Dukes made 8-of-14 for 23 points, while Scott had 18 points, eight rebounds and four assists. Minnesota: Pitino's 'ride' at Minnesota has been of the roller coaster variety. A 25-win season in his first year (won NIT!), 18 wins in his second but then just EIGHT in his third. Minnesota bounced back with 25 wins last year (lost in the 1st round of the Big Dance) and now a top-25 ranking early in this season. All five starters return for Minneoita as well and it's a talented group. Junior forward Jordan Murphy was named the Big Ten player of the week Monday, leading the way during two victories in averaging 29 points on 23-of-37 shooting and adding 14.5 RPG. Guard Nate Mason (14.0 & 5.5) checks in behind Murphy plus the 6-10 Lynch (13.5 & 7.5) and 6-8 swingman Coffey (11.5 & 4.5) are off to good starts as well. The pick: As noted above, all five starters returned for the Purple Eagles but let's add here that it's a welcome change from the transition that's ravaged the program. A whopping 20 players exited the program from Casey's arrival before the 2013-14 season through last season. "It's the first time we've had some carryover and haven't had to replace a large piece of the roster," Casey said. "Transfers really hurt us." Will Niagara win here? Probably not but off Minnesota's nice road win, expect the Golden Gophers to be a little flat. Take the points or go under? I say make the Under a 10* play. |
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