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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-08-16 | Hawks +9 v. Cavs | Top | 110-106 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks + the points over the Cleveland Cavaliers. Last year, the Hawks were swept out of the Playoffs by Cleveland (for the 2nd straight season). Tonight, Atlanta will look to get a measure of revenge, and they've been installed as a big underdog. We'll grab the points with Mike Budenholzer's men, as underdogs of +8 or more points have cashed 66% over the past 26 years if they're playing with revenge from a playoff series defeat to their opponent the previous season. Take Atlanta. NBA Payback Payday. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-07-16 | Bills v. Seahawks -6 | Top | 25-31 | Push | 0 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Seahawks minus the points over the Buffalo Bills. The Seahawks lost last week, at New Orleans, 25-20, as a 1-point favorite. And that continued an overall poor spate of play on the road. Seattle's just 1-3 SU away from home this season. But the Seahawks have yet to lose at home (3-0), and they're back home tonight following two road tilts at Arizona and New Orleans. We'll lay the points with the Seahawks as home teams are 22-1 ATS vs. opponents with a win percentage between .410 and .710, if our home team has a better record than its opponent and is off back to back road games. Seattle's also 14-5-2 ATS on Mondays (including 8-1-1 ATS off a loss). Take the Seahawks. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-06-16 | Saints v. 49ers +5 | Top | 41-23 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers + the points over New Orleans. This is a great spot to take the home underdog 49ers, as they had last week off to rest and re-group from their upset loss to Tampa Bay 2 weeks ago, while the Saints played a tough game last Sunday against Seattle. It's true the 49ers are just 1-6 SU/ATS on the season (while New Orleans is 3-4 SU and 4-2-1 ATS). But bad teams have been sensational as RESTED home underdogs. Since the bye week was established in 1990, rested home dogs of more than 4 points that don't have a .400 (or better) record, have gone 30-9 ATS when matched up against an unrested foe. Even better: if they're playing a team with a winning ATS record, then our 30-9 mark zooms to 25-3 ATS! Finally, the Niners are 64-31-2 ATS off an upset loss, including 14-2 when priced as an underdog of +7 or less points (or PK). Take San Francisco. NFC Conference Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-06-16 | Cowboys v. Browns +7.5 | Top | 35-10 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over the Dallas Cowboys. After dropping its season opener to the New York Giants, the Cowboys have ripped off six straight wins and covers, including an overtime victory at home last week vs. Philadelphia. But teams off 6 straight wins and covers have historically been poor against the spread vs. foes off a straight-up loss, as they've covered just 39.3% since 1980. Even worse for the Cowboys: Cleveland's yet to win a game, but teams with an 0-7 (or worse) record are an awesome 27-10 ATS when getting more than 6 points. Take Cleveland + the points. NFL Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-05-16 | Alabama v. LSU +8 | Top | 10-0 | Loss | -125 | 31 h 45 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the LSU Tigers + the points over Alabama. The Crimson Tide have done little wrong this season, and are clearly the nation's best team. They're not only 8-0 SU, but they're 6-2 ATS, and have covered the spread by an average of 7 ppg. But don't be surprised if they lose outright on Saturday night to the 5-2 Tigers. There are many reasons to think Ed Orgeron's squad will be able to get the win in Baton Rouge. First, they had last week off, and fall into several of my best systems that play on certain rested home teams. Second, even though they've lost twice, both were by less than a touchdown, away from home, against teams currently ranked among the Top 10 (Wisconsin, Auburn). But LSU currently rides a 3-game SU/ATS win streak, including a 38-21 blowout of Ole Miss, as a 9-point favorite, in their last game. And, LSU also falls into a jaw-dropping 28-0 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off back to back wins against opponent that have covered the spread, on average, by more than 3 ppg. Finally, the Tigers are 8-0 ATS in Baton Rouge after scoring more than 34 points in their previous game. Take LSU. SEC Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-05-16 | East Carolina v. Tulsa -9.5 | Top | 24-45 | Win | 100 | 31 h 44 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Tulsa Golden Hurricane minus the points over East Carolina. The Golden Hurricane are on a roll, with wins in five of their last six games (and ATS wins in their last three). Last week, Tulsa went into Memphis, and smoked the Tigers, 59-30, as a 6-point road dog. And that followed a 50-27 blowout of Tulane two weeks ago, as a 10.5-point favorite. This week, Tulsa will look to get a big monkey off its back, as it's lost the previous six meetings to the Pirates. But Tulsa falls into 51-20 and 66-38 ATS revenge systems of mine. Even better: since 1980, home teams have cashed 70.9 percent of the time off back to back double-digit wins and covers, if they scored more than 100 points over those two victories, and the line in the current game was less than 18 points. Finally, the Pirates are a wallet-busting 0-10 ATS since Nov. 29, 2013 in conference games when not favored by 6+ points. Take Tulsa. AAC Game of the Year. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-05-16 | Iowa v. Penn State -6.5 | Top | 14-41 | Win | 100 | 17 h 38 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Penn State Nittany Lions minus the points over Iowa. Penn State's played just one game the entire season. And that was at Michigan (a game I attended in person), when it lost 49-10, as a 16-point underdog. We actually had a big play on the Wolverines that day, so PSU's poor performance didn't surprise me. But look at the Nitts' other seven games. They won by 20 over Kent St. in their opener (as a 24-point fave), and then pushed the 3-point spread at Pitt in their next game. Then, in their two games sandwiched around the Michigan loss, they won 34-27, as an 8.5 point favorite vs. Temple, and 29-26, as a 3.5-point favorite vs. Minnesota. So, yes, they were 0-4-1 ATS to start the season -- but three of their four ATS losses were by a combined 6 points. Since then, they've rolled. They blew out Maryland, 38-14, as a 2-point underdog, before upsetting Ohio State, 24-21, as a 17.5-point dog. Many thought they would suffer a letdown last week. But they had their best game of the season when they went into West Lafayette, and walloped Purdue, 62-24, as a 14.5-point favorite. That was PSU's 3rd straight cover (by an average of 23.33 ppg), and I won't step in front of this freight train, and especially not at home when laying a reasonable number. Indeed, single-digit home favorites are a reliable 73% ATS over the past 37 years following a SU/ATS win the previous week, in which they scored 60+ points. Take Penn State. Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-05-16 | Florida State v. NC State +6 | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 30 h 41 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the NC State Wolfpack + the points over Florida State, as it falls into a 50-14 ATS system of mine. The Seminoles lost a huge emotional game vs. the #2-ranked Clemson Tigers last week. Florida State had an 8-point lead in the 4th quarter, but collapsed, and lost 37-34. I think it will be extremely difficult for the Seminoles to pick themselves off the mat for this road game, as that loss all but eliminated them from the Atlantic Division title race. Indeed, the Seminoles fall into a negative 1-15 ATS system of mine which fades certain teams off close losses to undefeated teams. Even worse: NC State has lost three straight in this series, but falls into a 70-31 ATS revenge system of mine which plays on certain .428 (or better) revenge-minded home teams off a loss. Finally, the Wolfpack are a solid 25-12 ATS when playing with revenge from a conference loss, while Florida State is 1-10 ATS as a favorite off an ATS win. Take NC State + the points. NCAA Roadkill play. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-05-16 | Oregon v. USC -17 | Top | 20-45 | Win | 100 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the USC Trojans minus the points over Oregon. Oregon brought in ex-Michigan head man Brady Hoke to coordinate its defense. And the results have not been good. Oregon is allowing an eye-opening 46 ppg, which is the primary reason it has only covered the spread in one of its eight games this season. We've gone against the Ducks a few times this season (because of its swiss cheese defense), and will do so once again tonight. Southern Cal, no doubt, will be seeking a measure of revenge after being blown out by Oregon the past 2 meetings. Last year, the Ducks won 48-28, in Eugene. And they also won here in Los Angeles, 62-51, in the meeting before that. But Oregon was the better team those seasons, and were favored in each game. Indeed, USC hasn't been favored to win vs. Oregon since 2009. And the last 3 games the Trojans were favored by double-digits vs. Oregon, they won by 34, 25 and 32 points, easily covering all 3 by an average of 15.17 ppg. Oregon falls into negative 44-101 and 55-98 ATS systems of mine that play against certain teams with bad defenses playing away from home. The Trojans have cashed 71% at home over the past 23 seasons off back to back ATS wins. Lay the points with USC. Payback Payday! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-05-16 | Charlotte v. Southern Miss -19.5 | Top | 38-27 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Southern Mississippi minus the points over Charlotte. The Golden Eagles failed to cover the spread for the 4th straight game last week, when they bested Marshall, 24-14, but lost ATS as a 17-point favorite. We'll lay the points with the Golden Eagles, as they fall into 66-30 and 73-24 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off 4+ ATS losses. Additionally, Charlotte comes into this game off an upset win, two weeks ago, at Marshall, 27-24, as an 8-point underdog. But that upset win has triggered several "letdown" systems of mine, including one with a 30-83 ATS record since 1980. Take Southern Miss. |
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11-05-16 | TCU +8.5 v. Baylor | Top | 62-22 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the TCU Horned Frogs + the points over Baylor. The Bears were upset by the Texas Longhorns last week on a field goal with less than a minute remaining. One of the things I like to do is go against certain teams off their first loss of the season following 5+ wins to start the year, as these teams suffer emotional letdowns more often than not following their initial defeat. Indeed, Baylor falls into negative 46-83, 25-56, and 47-94 ATS "Bubble Burst" systems of mine. Moreover, TCU was upset by Texas Tech last Saturday, 27-24, as a double-digit favorite. But that upset loss has set up the Frogs in a super 141-62 ATS "Bounce Back" angle of mine. Take TCU. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-05-16 | Oklahoma State v. Kansas State -2.5 | Top | 43-37 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Kansas State Wildcats minus the points over Oklahoma State. Last week, Oklahoma State upset previously-undefeated West Virginia, 37-20, as a 5-point underdog. But that upset win has triggered a negative 29-79 ATS system, which fades Okie State. Even worse for the Cowboys, the Wildcats under coach Bill Snyder have gone a jaw-dropping 85-46 ATS at home. Take Kansas State. |
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11-05-16 | Louisville -24.5 v. Boston College | Top | 52-7 | Win | 100 | 23 h 43 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Louisville Cardinals minus the points over Boston College, as Louisville falls into 55-6, 67-20, 144-62, 14-0 and 46-11 ATS Systems of mine. Let's take a look at our 46-11 ATS angle. That system plays against certain home teams, not favored by 7+ points, off an upset win as a two touchdown road underdog. Last week, Boston College went into Raleigh, and shocked the Wolfpack, 21-14, as 14-point underdogs. But off that upset win, I look for BC to get annihilated by Lamar Jackson & Co. on Saturday. The Eagles are a dismal 0-6 SU/ATS at home the past two seasons in ACC Conference games, while the Cardinals are a stellar 23-8 ATS when priced from -17 to -27 points. Lay the points with Louisville. ACC Game of the Year. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-05-16 | Air Force +2 v. Army | Top | 31-12 | Win | 100 | 23 h 38 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Air Force Falcons over Army. Last week, Air Force moved to 5-3 on the season with a 31-21 win at Fresno State. But Army failed to cover the 16.5-point spot. Meanwhile, the Black Knights pulled a huge upset last Saturday when they went into Winston-Salem, and stunned Wake Forest, 21-13, as a touchdown underdog. Can Army make it two in a row? If history is any indication, it's not likely. Air Force has dominated this series over the past 27 years, with a 24-3 record and 19-8 ATS mark, including two double-digit wins in the games it was installed as an underdog. It's true the Falcons are on a 4-game ATS losing skein, but teams that are on 4-game (or worse) ATS losing streaks have covered 77% as underdogs in non-conference games since 1980 vs. foes off an upset win over a non-conference foe. Likewise, winning teams off a pointspread defeat as a road favorite, and 4+ ATS losses in a row, are an awesome 67.6% ATS since 1980 on the road when not catching double-digits. Take Air Force to smash Army. Rivalry Game of the Year. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-04-16 | San Jose State v. Boise State -30 | Top | 31-45 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
At 10:15 pm, our selection is on the Boise State Broncos minus the points over San Jose State. Last week, Boise was favored by 14.5 points at Wyoming, and was upset by the Cowboys, 30-28. That was Boise State's 1st loss of the season, but I love the Broncos to bounce back on Friday. And that's because, since 1980, home teams favored by more than 15 points have cashed 62% following an upset loss on the road as an 8-point (or greater) favorite. Additionally, Boise falls into 82-34 and 57-29 ATS Systems of mine based on its loss to Wyoming last week. Take Boise State. Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-04-16 | Spurs -4.5 v. Jazz | Top | 100-86 | Win | 102 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Utah. These two teams met in the Alamo City two nights ago, and the Jazz handed the Spurs their first loss of the season, 106-91. Interestingly, that defeat also kept the great Gregg Popovich from ever starting a season 5-0 in his 20 years on the bench. I look for San Antonio to bounce back tonight, as it falls into a 123-69 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off losses. Additionally, the Spurs are 44-28 ATS as road favorites when playing with revenge from an upset defeat. Lay the points. NBA Payback Payday. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-04-16 | Knicks +7.5 v. Bulls | Top | 117-104 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Knicks + the points over the Chicago Bulls. The Knicks fall into a 64-24 ATS system of mine, which plays on certain teams that were blown out in their previous game (the Knicks lost 118-99 to Houston). And Chicago's an awful 40-66 ATS vs. foes with a W/L percentage of .420 or worse, including 5-18 ATS if the Bulls' W/L percentage was greater than .625. Take New York. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-04-16 | Clippers -5.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 99-88 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over Memphis. The Grizzlies are 3-2 on the season, but obscured by their record is the fact they needed two overtime wins against two teams (Wizards/Pelicans) that are a combined 0-8 on the season. Besides those two games, Memphis has lost to the 1-3 Knicks, and split out 2 games with Minnesota. So, this is a big step-up in class for the Grizzlies. I think they'll get blown out by a Clippers squad looking to bounce back from a home upset loss to OKC. And the Clippers are 13-3 ATS as road favorites, priced from -3.5 to -6 points. Take Los Angeles. |
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11-04-16 | Heat +8 v. Raptors | Top | 87-96 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat + the points over the Toronto Raptors. This is a revenge match for the Heat, who were bounced out of last year's Playoffs by Toronto. And Miami falls into a 67-25 ATS revenge system of mine. Take Miami. |
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11-03-16 | UCLA v. Colorado -12.5 | Top | 10-20 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 31 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Buffaloes minus the points over the UCLA Bruins. Colorado had last week off, and is in 1st place in the Pac-12 South division, with a 4-1 record (and a 6-2 overall record). This is a big revenge game for the Buffaloes, as they've lost all five meetings with UCLA since joining the Pac-12 conference. Colorado falls into a great "revenge" system of mine, which is 83-44 ATS since 1985, and it's a perfect 8-0 ATS this season. Meanwhile, UCLA 2-8 ATS its last 10 games after getting upset, 52-45, by Utah in its last game. And it's covered just 8 of 28 road games following a game in which they scored 40+ points. Take Colorado. NCAA Payback Payday! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-03-16 | Buffalo v. Ohio -19.5 | Top | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
At 6 pm, our selection is on the Ohio U. Bobcats minus the points over the Buffalo Bulls. Last week, the Bobcats shocked Toledo, 31-26, as a 15-point road underdog. That was Ohio's 2nd straight win (and cover), and fifth win in its last six games. I look for Ohio to blow out Buffalo on Thursday evening, as home favorites of -6.5 or more points are an awesome 66.2% ATS vs. conference foes over the past 37 years, if our home team is off a win in its previous game, as an underdog of more than 8 points. And Ohio is also 7-0 ATS at home or on a neutral field off an upset win. Take Ohio. NCAA Football High Roller Winner! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-02-16 | Thunder v. Clippers -6.5 | Top | 85-83 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 14 m | Show |
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over the Oklahoma City Thunder.  Russell Westbrook is off to an incredible start, as he's AVERAGING a triple double: 38.7 ppg, 12.3 rpg and 11.7 apg. And the Thunder are 3-0, to boot. Obviously, those numbers would be good enough to earn Westbrook the NBA MVP Award at season's end, should they continue. But before we get too excited, let's remember that his games were against three of the league's four-worst teams (Suns, 76ers, Lakers).  Tonight, the Thunder will have a big step-up in class, as they must travel to Los Angeles to face the Clippers (also undefeated). And Los Angeles has already faced two playoff-caliber teams, in the Trail Blazers and Jazz. Los Angeles has won all three games by 8+ points, and fall into an 83-34 ATS "momentum" system of mine which plays on certain home teams off back to back big wins. Take Los Angeles. NBA Roadkill Play. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-02-16 | Mavs +5 v. Jazz | Top | 81-97 | Loss | -111 | 16 h 40 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks + the points over the Utah Jazz. It's easy to forget how good the Dallas Mavericks have been, as they've always been in the shadow of their Lone Star State rival, San Antonio. Yes, the Spurs are working toward their 20th straight season of a .600 or better record. But the Mavs also have a nice streak going, as they've not had a losing record since 1999-2000 -- 16 consecutive years at .500 or better. So, the fact that the Mavericks are off to an 0-3 start this season shouldn't be cause for too much worry. After all, Dirk Nowitzki missed the last two games with a stomach virus, but should be able to play tonight. And the Mavs are an awesome 38-12 ATS their last 50 with a losing record, off a loss. Even better: they're 12-0 ATS their last 12 in that role when dressed up as an underdog of more than 2 points! Admittedly, the Jazz had a great win last night, as they handed the Spurs a rare home loss. But I look for a letdown on Wednesday. Take Dallas tonight against Utah. NBA Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-01-16 | Warriors v. Blazers +5 | Top | 127-104 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 55 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers + the points over the Golden State Warriors. When these two team last met, the Warriors bounced the Blazers out of the playoffs. But you know what they say about "paybacks!" And Portland falls into several of my revenge systems, with records of 84-50, 27-8, and 70-35 ATS. Also, the Warriors have not covered any of their last 8 games (dating back to the preseason). Finally, Portland is a super 92-58-1 ATS as home underdogs of less than 6 points. Take the Trail Blazers. NBA High Roller. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-01-16 | Magic -4.5 v. 76ers | Top | 103-101 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Orlando Magic minus the points over Philly. The team which wins tonight will notch its first win on the season, and we'll back the Magic to be the squad which gets into the win column, as they fall into 96-56, 101-47 and 116-66 ATS systems of mine that play on certain road teams off losses. The 76ers were annihilated by Atlanta, 104-72, in their last game, which doesn't bode well for them tonight. And that's because home teams off a blowout loss at home by 30+ points, have covered a paltry 38.4% since 1990 vs. foes off a SU loss. Take the Magic to rout the Sixers. NBA Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-31-16 | Vikings v. Bears +4.5 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 40 h 31 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over the Minnesota Vikings, as they fall into a super 202-110 ATS system of mine, as well as a 145-65 ATS angle. The Vikings were upset, 21-10, at Philadelphia last week, and that was Minny's first loss (both SU and ATS) on the season. Now, on Monday, it will play its second straight road game, at division rival Chicago. We'll grab the points with the Bears, who will be well-rested following their loss to Green Bay 11 days ago. That was Chicago's 3rd straight loss, but it's been terrific at home off back-to-back losses when not favored by 2+ points. Since 1980, Chicago's gone 32-11 ATS in this situation, including a perfect 18-0 ATS when matched up against an opponent whose ATS win percentage is .571 or better.  And the Bears are also 8-0 ATS their last 8 games off 3+ losses. More bad news for Minnesota: teams off upset losses have covered just 70 of 178 Monday Night Football games since 1980 (39.3%). Finally, Monday Night road favorites of -5 points or less, without a losing record, that are not off a win, are an awful 9-32 ATS since 1980, including 0-7 ATS with a win percentage of .720 or better. Take Chicago. NFL Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-30-16 | Mavs +5.5 v. Rockets | Top | 92-93 | Win | 100 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks + the points over the Houston Rockets. We played on the Houston Rockets against Dallas on Friday, and got the cash when the Rockets won, 106-98. But in this re-match, we'll grab the points with Dallas, as teams playing with revenge against a division opponent in the 2nd meeting of back-to-back games between the teams have covered 92 of 155 since February, 1996. Take Dallas. |
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10-30-16 | Wizards -2 v. Grizzlies | Top | 103-112 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Wizards over the Memphis Grizzlies. We played against Memphis last night, and got the cash with the NY Knicks, who won, 111-104, as a 3-point favorite. And, now, Memphis must return home to take on Washingto, which has had the last two days off. Thus, this is a very tough scheduling spot for the Grizzlies, early in the year, as they're playing without rest against a rested opponent. And, since 2005, rested NBA teams are 15-0 ATS on the road early in the season (Game 2 or 3) against unrested foes, provided the game's pointspread is 8 points or less. Take Washington. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-30-16 | Jazz +8 v. Clippers | Top | 75-88 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
At 4:35 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz + the points over the Los Angeles Clippers. The Clips had a big emotional game to open the season when they faced off with the team which ousted them in last year's playoffs -- the Trail Blazers. Los Angeles avenged that playoff defeat with an 8-point win at Portland on Thursday. But off that emotional victory, I look for a letdown this afternoon. Indeed, single-digit home favorites that avenged a playoff loss in their previous game have only cashed 38 of 96 since 1990. Take the Jazz + the points. |
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10-30-16 | Jets v. Browns +2.5 | Top | 31-28 | Loss | -111 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over the New York Jets. Cleveland's yet to break into the win column this season, as they're 0-7, but we'll grab the points with the Browns as a home underdog on Sunday. One of the things I love to do is play on teams with an 0-7 (or worse) record, as they've covered 68% since 1985 (58-27-1 ATS) as underdogs (or PK). Additionally, Cleveland falls into a 287-190 ATS system of mine which takes certain teams off a loss, that have a losing ATS percentage, in non-division games. Take Cleveland. NFL Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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10-30-16 | Cardinals +3 v. Panthers | Top | 20-30 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals + the points over the Carolina Panthers. These two teams met in last year's playoffs, and the Panthers absolutely annihilated Arizona, 49-15. But this year's Carolina team is a shell of its former self. Last year's edition lost just one regular season game, but the 2016 squad is a horrid 1-5 on the season, including four straight losses in games they were FAVORED to win. I don't believe Carolina will get off the schneid this afternoon, as teams off 3 straight upset losses have covered just 40% (27 of 66) since 1980, including just 10 of 31 against opponents not off a win. Moreover, teams that won a Playoff game by 27+ points the previous year against their current revenge-minded opponent are an awful 2-15 ATS since 1985, if not favored by 4+ points. Take the Cardinals. NFL Payback Payday. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-30-16 | New Mexico +3 v. Hawaii | Top | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 19 h 18 m | Show |
At Midnight, on Saturday night, our selection is on the New Mexico Lobos + the points over Hawaii. Both of these teams come into this game with 4 wins, and each had a great win last week. New Mexico blew out Louisiana Monroe, 59-17, as a 15.5-point favorite, while Hawaii upset Air Force on the road, 34-27, as a 16.5-point underdog. The Warriors have returned home for this game, and one might expect Hawaii to have a big home field advantage due to the travel distance from the mainland. But Hawaii's now 0-9 ATS its last 9 home games when it has played without rest. Even worse: the Rainbow Warriors fall into a negative 89-164 ATS system of mine which fades certain teams off upset wins. Take New Mexico + the points. NCAA Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-29-16 | Old Dominion -5 v. UTEP | Top | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 15 h 20 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Old Dominion Monarchs minus the points over Texas El Paso. Last week, the Monarchs were annihilated by Western Kentucky, 59-24. That loss lowered ODU's record to 4-3 (2-1 in Conference USA). In contrast, UTEP won last week, 52-49, as a double-digit underdog at Texas-San Antonio. But the Miners are just 2-5 on the season, and have only won once in the four Conference games they've played. I expect a "return to form" on this Saturday night, as UTEP falls into negative 69-155 and 74-158 ATS systems of mine that fade certain teams off big upset wins. Additionally, winning teams (like ODU) off a blowout conference loss by more than 20 points, have covered 59.3% of the time over the past 37 seasons vs. conference foes off a SU/ATS win. Take Old Dominion. C-USA Game of the Month. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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10-29-16 | Magic +12 v. Cavs | Top | 99-105 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Orlando Magic + the points over the Cleveland Cavaliers. We played on the Magic last night in Detroit, but lost, as Orlando fell to 0-2 SU/ATS on the season. They'll try to get off the schneid tonight in Cleveland where they'll face a Cavaliers squad which is 2-0 SU/ATS after defeating Toronto last night, 94-91. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the "hot" Cavaliers and against the "cold" Magic, but consider that, over the past 27 years, NBA road teams off to an 0-2 SU/ATS start have covered 75% vs. foes off to a 2-0 SU/ATS start! Take the Magic + the points. NBA Road Warrior Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-29-16 | Grizzlies v. Knicks -2.5 | Top | 104-111 | Win | 100 | 2 h 35 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the New York Knicks minus the points over Memphis. The Grizzlies pulled a mild upset in their first game when they came back from an early 17-point deficit to defeat Minnesota, 102-98. The Knicks, on the other hand, had a more difficult foe for their first game, as they were routed by Cleveland, 117-88. But I love New York to bounce back this evening, as favorites have covered a whopping 67% of the time over the past 27 years off a loss by more than 15 points in their season opener! Take New York. NBA Roadkill Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-29-16 | Nebraska v. Wisconsin -8 | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 33 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Wisconsin Badgers minus the points over Nebraska. The Cornhuskers come into Madison ranked #7 in the country, on the heels of a 7-0 record. But they've been installed as a huge underdog vs. the Badgers, who are 5-2 this season. But Wisconsin's schedule has been much tougher than Nebraska's, as Wisky has lost to Ohio State (in overtime) and Michigan (by just 7), while Nebraska's toughest opponent thus far has been a 2-5 Oregon squad (which it only defeated by 3 points, at home). Indeed, last week, Nebraska barely got by an awful Purdue team, 27-14, as a 24-point favorite. And that doesn't bode well for Nebraska, as unrested undefeated teams, with a 7-0 (or better) record, are a dismal 0-20-2 ATS the past 37 years off a conference win by less than 37 points, if they're installed as underdogs of 3+ points vs. conference foes with a worse win percentage. Take Wisconsin. NCAA Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-29-16 | Marshall v. Southern Miss -15.5 | Top | 14-24 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles minus the points over Marshall.  Southern Miss had last week off following its 45-10 defeat at LSU on October 15. But the Golden Eagles still have a winning record on the season, and winning teams, off a SU/ATS 21-point (or worse) defeat, are 310-231 (57.3%) ATS in Conference games since 1980 (at Game 8 forward). Meanwhile, Marshall's an awful 37-60-1 ATS on the road since 2000. Take Southern Miss. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-29-16 | SMU v. Tulane -2.5 | Top | 35-31 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Tulane Green Wave minus the points over SMU. Both of these teams are 3-4 on the season, but they couldn't have had much more different results than they experienced last week. Tulane was crushed, 50-27, by Tulsa, while SMU blew out Houston, 38-16, as a 23-point underdog! But SMU falls into a negative 13-43 ATS system of mine which fades certain teams in conference games off a conference win by 20+ points, if their foe is off a conference loss by 20+ points.  Also, Tulane is a perfect 7-0 ATS off back to back losses vs. foes off a win. Take the Green Wave. |
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10-29-16 | Miami (OH) v. Eastern Michigan -7 | Top | 28-15 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Eastern Michigan Eagles minus the points over Miami-Ohio. The Red Hawks have won the last eight games in this series, but that streak should be halted by the Eagles this afternoon. EMU comes into this game off a 45-31 loss at Western Michigan, but has covered its last six games. And College teams off a loss (but 5+ ATS wins) have covered 79% over the past 5 seasons. Additionally, EMU falls into a 66-37 ATS revenge system of mine. Lay the points with the Eagles. |
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10-28-16 | Rockets +2 v. Mavs | Top | 106-98 | Win | 100 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets + the points over Dallas. The Rockets were upset by the Los Angeles Lakers to open the season, 120-114, as a 6-point favorite. But I love Houston to rebound tonight, at Dallas, as it is 71-37-4 ATS on the road as an underdog following an upset loss, including 28-12-3 ATS vs. a foe off a SU/ATS loss. Additionally, Houston falls into 20-4 and 54-21 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off upset losses. Take Houston. |
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10-28-16 | Hornets +2 v. Heat | Top | 97-91 | Win | 100 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Charlotte Hornets + the points over the Miami Heat. These two teams met in last year's Playoffs, and the Heat ousted the Hornets in a tough 7-game series. But I look for Charlotte to avenge that defeat as it falls into 47-23, 67-24, 94-65 and 70-34 revenge systems of mine. Additionally, Miami upset Orlando, 108-96, in its season opener. But home favorites have covered just 31% of the time since 1990 off an upset road win to open the season. Take Charlotte. |
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10-28-16 | Suns +9.5 v. Thunder | Top | 110-113 | Win | 100 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns + the points over Oklahoma City. The Thunder won their opener, 103-97, but failed to cover the large pointspread vs. Philly. Now, in Game 2, the Thunder will once again be favored by a hefty amount. And, once again, they will be hard-pressed to cover the number. The Suns lost their home opener, 113-94, to Sacramento. But NBA teams off an upset double-digit loss in their home opener have covered 73% on the road since 1990 vs. foes off an ATS loss. Take Phoenix. |
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10-28-16 | Magic +4.5 v. Pistons | Top | 82-108 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Orlando Magic + the points over Detroit, as Orlando falls into 16-0, 98-44 and 66-24 ATS systems of mine. The Magic fell in their season opener, 108-96 to Miami. The biggest problem for the Magic on Wednesday was in the middle, as they were without their center Bismack Biyombo, who was serving a one-game suspension after exceeding the league's flagrant foul limit in last year's playoffs. Not surprisingly, Orlando was outscored 74-36 in the paint, and outrebounded 52-44. But Biyombo will be back on the court tonight, and his presence will be a big difference tonight. Meanwhile, Detroit also lost its opener, 109-91, to Toronto, and shot just 41% from the floor. But Detroit's offensive problems will likely continue tonight, as it will once again be without its floor general, Reggie Jackson, who will miss approximately 20 games with a knee injury. The Pistons will have to rely on Ish Smith and Beno Udrih at the point, and that combination won't get the job done. Orlando cashed 72% last season off a home loss, and I look for it to blow out Detroit. Take the points with the Magic. NBA Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-28-16 | Cavs v. Raptors +3 | Top | 94-91 | Push | 0 | 14 h 48 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors + the points over Cleveland. The Cavaliers defeated Toronto in last year's Playoffs en route to winning the NBA Championship, so the Raptors will no doubt have revenge on their minds tonight. And Toronto falls into 72-43 and 24-4 ATS Revenge systems of mine. Even better: Toronto has been installed as a home dog in this game, and home underdogs (or PK) are 73.9% ATS since 1990 off a win in their season opener when matched up against an opponent with a winning record. Finally, NBA Champs have covered just 28% as road favorites off a win by 5+ points in their season opener since 1990. And Cleveland's an awful 13-30-1 ATS on the road after scoring 114+ points in a home victory, including 3-15-1 ATS vs. a foe off a win. Take Toronto. NBA Roadkill play. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-28-16 | Navy +6.5 v. South Florida | Top | 45-52 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Navy Midshipmen + the points over South Florida. The Bulls were upset by Temple last week, 46-30, as a 5.5-point favorite. Unfortunately for South Florida, that upset loss has triggered several negative systems of mine, with records of 61-125 and 128-200 ATS since 1980. And, perhaps, the worst team (at least, from a betting standpoint) that a College Football team would want to host would be Navy. And that's because Navy has historically been the best traveler in College Football against the spread. Since 1991, Navy is an awesome 103-54-2 ATS away from home, including 39-14 ATS vs. an opponent off a loss (and a perfect 8-0 when priced from +2 to +8 points vs. a foe off a SU/ATS loss)! Finally, both of these teams are strong at running the football. And in conference games between teams that average 4.75+ yards per rush, road underdogs of more than 6 points have covered 195 of 338 since 1980, including 138 of 227 (61%) off a straight-up win. Take Navy. NCAA Elite Info. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-27-16 | Spurs v. Kings +9 | Top | 102-94 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings + the points over San Antonio. The Spurs looked great against Golden State, as they won 129-100. But I look for a letdown on Thursday night at Sacramento. Unlike Golden State, which is bereft of interior size and rebounding (the Spurs outrebounded the Warriors by 20 (55-35)), the Kings have the league's best center in DeMarcus Cousins, as well as Kosta Koufos. And both big men can score and defend. Yesterday, Cousins led the Kings with 24 points in their upset win over Phoenix. And underdogs off an upset win in their season opener are an awesome 69% over the past 26 years vs. foes off a win! That bodes well for the Kings tonight, who will play their very first game at their new Golden 1 Center tonight. Look for a raucous crowd to "spur" the Sacramento Kings to victory. Take the points with Sacramento. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-27-16 | California v. USC -16.5 | Top | 24-45 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the USC Trojans minus the points over California. Last week, the Cal Golden Bears upset Oregon, 52-49, in overtime, while USC blew out Arizona, 48-14. USC's now won 3 in a row, including a 21-17 win over a very good Colorado squad. The Trojans are 4-3, but have really just played two bad games all season, both away from home (52-6 loss to #1 Alabama; 27-10 loss at Stanford). At home, however, the Trojans are 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS, with their only ATS loss by a single point. I look for a blowout tonight vs. California, which has not won a road game all season (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS), and has given up 47.66 ppg away from home. USC falls into a 100-44 ATS system of mine which plays on certain home favorites vs. foes off upset wins. Take the Trojans. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-27-16 | Ohio v. Toledo -16 | Top | 31-26 | Loss | -118 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Toledo Rockets minus the points over Ohio. We played on the Rockets last week vs. Central Michigan and were rewarded with a 31-17 win, as a 10-point favorite. Toledo's now 75-50 ATS as a favorite, including 50-28 ATS at home. Even better: the Rockets are now 7-0 ATS off a home win their last 7. Toledo's lost just one game on the season, and falls into a 112-50 ATS 'momentum' system of mine which plays on great teams off a big win. Take the Rockets. |
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10-27-16 | Virginia Tech v. Pittsburgh +3.5 | Top | 39-36 | Win | 100 | 6 h 53 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Pitt Panthers + the points over Virginia Tech. Pitt has a big scheduling edge for this Thursday contest, as Pitt hasn't played in 12 days, while the Hokies were at home vs. Miami last Saturday. Pitt falls into a 52-13 ATS system of mine which involves teams playing with rest, off a SU win. Additionally, the Panthers are a super 15-4 ATS at home off a double-digit conference win. Take the Panthers. |
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10-25-16 | Spurs v. Warriors -8.5 | Top | 129-100 | Loss | -113 | 34 h 37 m | Show |
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over the San Antonio Spurs. This will be a tough game for the Silver and Black, as it will be without shooting guard Danny Green. Last season, Green ranked #1 among shooting guards in ESPN's Real Plus-Minus defensive rating, and many feel that Green's the best transition defender in the league. That will be a huge loss against the team with the best transition offense in basketball. Even worse for the Spurs: they'll be without their anchor for the past 19 years, Tim Duncan (not to mention other departed front-line players like Boris Diaw, Boban Marjanovic and David West). The additions of Pau Gasol and David Lee -- though welcome on the offensive end -- won't make up for the negatives on defense. Last season, Golden State lost the Finals when it blew a 3-1 series lead. But the good news -- at least for tonight -- is that the loser of the NBA Finals is 8-0 ATS at home in its season-opener the past 25 seasons when priced from -3 to -13 points. Take Golden State. NBA Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-23-16 | Seahawks v. Cardinals -1 | Top | 6-6 | Loss | -108 | 17 h 1 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals over the Seattle Seahawks. Last year, Seattle went into Arizona at the end of the season, and throttled the Cardinals, 36-6. With payback on their mind, we'll look for the Cardinals to avenge that defeat with a resounding win on Sunday night. Indeed, teams like Seattle, that beat a winning team the previous season by 25 or more points, have been dreadful the following season when playing the revenge-minded team away from home, as they've covered just 34.6% of the time the past 37 seasons. We saw this happen earlier this year, in Week 2, when Houston avenged a 30-0 loss to the Chiefs in last year's playoffs with a 19-12 upset win. We played on Houston in that game, and will similarly take the revenge-minded Cardinals in this Sunday night game. Take Arizona. NFL Division Game of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-23-16 | Patriots v. Steelers +7.5 | Top | 27-16 | Loss | -123 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Steelers + the points over New England. The Steelers will turn to Landry Jones at Quarterback this afternoon, as Ben Roethlisberger is on the shelf with a knee injury. But that won't dissuade us from grabbing the points with the home dog Steelers, and going against the red-hot Patriots. New England comes into this game off back to back blowout wins (and covers). Last week, New England demolished Cincy, 35-17, as a 7-point favorite. And its blew out the Browns, 33-13, as a 10-point favorite two weeks ago. Unfortunately for Tom Brady & Co., winning road favorites (or PK), off back to back wins and double-digit covers, are an awful 27-61 ATS vs. foes off a loss. Even worse: the Steelers are a money-making 82-45-3 ATS at home in the regular season since 1981 off a pointspread defeat, including 28-11-2 ATS when playing with revenge. Last year, the Pats bested the Steelers, 28-21, so Pittsburgh is indeed playing with revenge. Take the Steelers + the points. NFL Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-23-16 | Bucs v. 49ers -1 | Top | 34-17 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Last week, the Niners gave up 45 points to the red-hot Buffalo Bills, and lost 45-16. That was San Francisco's 5th straight loss and pointspread defeat. This afternoon, the 49ers will host the Tampa Bay Bucs, who had last week off following their upset win over Carolina, 17-14.  We'll fade Tampa Bay, as road teams, off an upset win over a division rival as a 2.5-point dog, are an awful 109-159 ATS in non-division games.  Moreover, teams off 5 straight ATS defeats have covered 98 of 151 (64.9%) vs. non-division foes since 1980 when not favored by more than 2 points. Take the 49ers. NFL Roadkill Winner! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-23-16 | Vikings v. Eagles +3 | Top | 10-21 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles + the points over Minnesota. This is a great spot to step in and fade the undefeated Vikings. Philadelphia comes into this game off back to back upset losses on the road, after starting the season 3-0. But winning teams are an awesome 70.67% ATS at home since December 20, 1981, off back to back road losses, if the pointspread is less than 10 points. And undefeated teams, with a 5-0 or better record, have covered just 38% since 1980 vs. foes off upset losses, including just 19% ATS if our undefeated team is off a win by 2 TDs or more. With Minny indeed off a 31-13 win over Houston, our 81% tightener is satisfied. Take Philly + the points. |
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10-23-16 | Saints v. Chiefs -5 | Top | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over New Orleans. After starting the season 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS, Sean Payton's Saints have pulled back to back upsets in their last two games to move to 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS. Two games ago, they benefited from Chargers turnovers to upend San Diego, 35-34. And, then, last week, they upset the Panthers, 41-38, as a 3-point home dog. But the Saints' defense gave up way too many points in those wins, and it's given up 34+ points in four of five games this season. That doesn't bode well for New Orleans at KC, as losing teams with a winning pointspread ledger, getting 5+ points on the road, off back to back ATS wins, are a dreadful 0-20 ATS since 1980 if they gave up 48+ points in those two pointspread victories. Additionally, the Chiefs are 35-16-1 ATS at home vs. NFC Conference teams since 1990. Take Kansas City. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-22-16 | Wyoming v. Nevada +6 | Top | 42-34 | Loss | -106 | 47 h 28 m | Show |
At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Nevada Wolf Pack + the points over Wyoming. The Cowboys come into this game off back to back upset wins -- over then-undefeated Air Force, as a 13-point underdog, and at Colorado State before that, as a 5.5-point underdog. Now, the Cowboys are a road favorite. And we'll go against them, as they fall into a negative 59-83 ATS system of mine which fades certain teams off back to back upset wins. Even worse: that upset win over Air Force sets up Wyoming in another negative situation, as teams off upset wins as home dogs over teams with a 1.000 win percentage are awful as road favorites of -17 or less points. Since 1980, these teams have cashed just 31.1% of the time. Take Nevada + the points. Mountain West Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-22-16 | Oregon State v. Washington -36.5 | Top | 17-41 | Loss | -110 | 65 h 53 m | Show |
At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Washington Huskies minus the points over Oregon State. Currently, Washington is ranked #5 in the country, but it's in a very good position to make the College Football Playoffs, as #2 Ohio State and #3 Michigan will play each other next month in Columbus. Thus, if the Huskies can remain undefeated, they will likely leapfrog the Big 10 team which loses that game. This week, Washington will host Oregon State, and the Beavers' defense has given up more than 30 points per game this season. That bodes well for Washington, which scored 70 points in its last game -- a 49-point blowout of Oregon. For the season, Washington is averaging 49.5 ppg. And, since 1980, high-scoring teams have covered 65.8% at home, at Game 3 forward, if they average at least 48.34 points per game on offense, and are playing an opponent with a defense that surrenders more than 25.5 ppg. Moreover, Oregon State has covered just 10 of its last 33 away from home as underdogs of more than 18 points vs. an opponent off a win. Take Washington to blow out the Beavers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-22-16 | Arkansas v. Auburn -9.5 | Top | 3-56 | Win | 100 | 65 h 1 m | Show |
At 6 pm, our selection is on the Auburn Tigers minus the points over Arkansas. This is a brutal scheduling spot for Arkansas, which upset Mississippi as a 10-point underdog last Saturday, 34-30. And that's because it has to travel to Auburn to play the Tigers, who had last week off following their 24-point blowout of Miss State in Starkville, two weeks ago. Since 1980, rested home favorites, off a win, have covered 82.3% of the time against unrested foes off an upset win as a dog of more than 7 points. Moreover, since 1983, Arkansas is an awful 16-31 ATS when playing away from home vs. a rested opponent, including 1-7 ATS when priced from +7.5 to +12.5 points. Take Auburn. SEC Conference Game of the Year! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-22-16 | Eastern Michigan v. Western Michigan -23.5 | Top | 31-45 | Loss | -105 | 62 h 53 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Western Michigan Broncos minus the points over Eastern Michigan. The Eagles upset Ohio last week, 27-20, as a 7-point underdog, and are now 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS this season. Meanwhile, the Broncos are 7-0 this season, and are ranked #20 in the AP poll. Even better (for our purposes), they're 6-1 ATS with their only pointspread defeat coming by a mere 3 points. The Broncos have topped 40 points in each of their 3 Mid-American Conference games this season, and I expect another strong offensive showing on Saturday vs. the Eagles, who are giving up 28.3 ppg. For technical support, consider that favored teams, off three straight wins in which they scored 35+ points, are 203-132 ATS against foes with a .600 (or better) ATS win percentage. And the Broncos are 17-4 ATS off a straight-up win, while the Eagles are 16-33 ATS off a win. Take Western Michigan. |
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10-22-16 | Illinois v. Michigan -36.5 | Top | 8-41 | Loss | -110 | 62 h 52 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Illinois. The Wolverines were idle last week, but moved up to #3 in the AP poll, bypassing Clemson, which needed overtime to defeat North Carolina State last Saturday. When we last saw Jim Harbaugh's men, they were dismantling Rutgers in New Jersey, 78-0. And that was the 3rd largest margin of victory for Michigan in its 137-year history, and the worst loss by Rutgers since 1888. Coincidentally, Illinois also comes into this game off a road win over Rutgers, as Illinois defeated the Scarlet Knights, 24-7, last week. Unfortunately for the Illini, it has covered just five of its last 22 games off a pointspread win. Even worse: Michigan will be well-rested following its bye week. And underdogs of more than 21 points -- like Illinois -- playing away from home, are an awful 41% ATS vs. rested foes. Take Michigan minus the points. |
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10-22-16 | Syracuse v. Boston College -4.5 | Top | 28-20 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 54 m | Show |
At 12:30 pm, our selection is on the Boston College Eagles minus the points over Syracuse. Boston College had last week off following its 56-10 blowout loss at the hands of #4-ranked Clemson. But I love BC to bounce back on Saturday afternoon vs. Syracuse. The primary reason is that the Orange pulled a massive upset last week when they upset Virginia Tech, 31-17, as a 22.5-point underdog. That moved Syracuse to 3-4 on the season. But off that upset win, I expect a big letdown on the road against Boston College, on Saturday. Indeed, since 1987, teams off an upset win over a conference foe, as an underdog of more than 19 points, have covered just 18.9% of the time vs. foes off a pointspread loss, including 0-16 ATS if our 'play-against' team (here, Syracuse) has a win percentage between .290 and .560. Take Boston College. ACC Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-22-16 | Central Michigan v. Toledo -10 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 57 h 44 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Toledo Rockets minus the points over Central Michigan. Toledo (along with Western Michigan) are the only undefeated team in Mid-American Conference play this season. And, with a date looming with the Broncos at season's end, the Rockets will have an opportunity to defeat the Broncos, and play in the MAC Conference Championship Game. But, first things first, and the Rockets need to take care of business at home this weekend vs. Central Michigan. Last week, the Chips upset Northern Illinois, 34-28. But off that upset win, we'll fade the Chippewas, as they fall into negative 47-96 and 27-82 ATS systems of mine. Even worse for Central Michigan: Toledo's been dominant at home, and especially when priced between +5.5 and -27 points, as they're 46-24-2 ATS since 1999. Finally, the Rockets are 5-0 ATS since 1999 at home when matched up against an opponent off an upset win, while Central Michigan is a horrid 0-7 ATS off an upset win since 1999 as a dog of +6 or more points. Take Toledo. NCAA HIGH NOON HANGING. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-22-16 | Texas v. Kansas State -2 | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 38 h 49 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Kansas State Wildcats minus the points over Texas. The Wildcats are 3-3 on the season, but have won all 3 home games, while they're 0-3 on the road. Likewise, Texas has won all 3 of its home games, but has lost all 3 of its games away from Austin, Texas. This game will be played in Manhattan, Kansas, and the home team has won and covered the last four in this series. Kansas State lost by 21 points last week to Oklahoma, while Texas won by 21 vs. Iowa State. That bodes well for the Wildcats, as teams favored by 7 or less points (or PK) off a conference loss by 20+ points have cashed 80.9% vs. conference foes off a conference win by 20+ points since 1987.  Additionally, the Wildcats are an awesome 25-6 ATS off a conference loss by 20+ points since 1988, including a perfect 12-0 ATS if the pointspread is 7 points or less. Take Kansas State. NCAA Roadkill Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-21-16 | Oregon v. California -3 | Top | 49-52 | Push | 0 | 69 h 46 m | Show |
At 10:30 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the California Golden Bears minus the points over Oregon. The Ducks, under new defensive coordinator Brady Hoke, have been awful on defense this season. Oregon's allowing opponents to score 41.8 ppg, and it has failed to win or cover any of its last four games. Even worse for the Ducks: California's offense is averaging 42.3 ppg. That doesn't bode well for Oregon, as road teams that give up 38+ points (at Game 3 forward) have covered just 36 of 104 games since 1980 against opponents that score 38+ points a game.  Additionally, California has lost 7 in a row to Oregon in this series, but falls into a super 38-13 ATS revenge system of mine. Lay the points with California. NCAA High Roller. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-16-16 | Falcons v. Seahawks -6.5 | Top | 24-26 | Loss | -100 | 38 h 12 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Seahawks minus the points over the Atlanta Falcons. Atlanta upset Denver on the road last week, and goes for its fifth straight win (both SU and ATS) vs. the Seahawks on Sunday. But I don't think Atlanta will be successful. The primary problem for the Falcons will surely be on the defensive end of things, as they give up 28 ppg (compared to Seattle's 13.5 defensive ppg mark). It's true that the Falcons held Denver to just 16 points last week, but that was against a team which started a backup QB (Paxton Lynch) last week. Prior to that, Atlanta had given up an average of 31 ppg. And one of the things I've done for years is go against teams on the road following an upset of the defending Super Bowl champions. And if our 'go-against' team (here, Atlanta) is getting more than 3 points, and it has a defense which surrenders 21+ points, then our system is a perfect 14-0 ATS since 1981. Take Seattle to blow out Atlanta. NFL Favorite of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-16-16 | Ravens v. Giants -3 | Top | 23-27 | Win | 100 | 36 h 45 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants minus the points over Baltimore. The Ravens are 3-2 SU/ATS, but come into this game off back to back upset losses at home to the Raiders and Redskins. They'll now take to the road to face a Giants squad on a 3-game losing streak. I like New York to snap its losing streak on Sunday, as road teams (like Baltimore) off back to back upsets losses are a dreadful 1-14 ATS since 1980 if they own a winning SU/ATS record, and their opponent is off a SU loss. Take New York. |
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10-16-16 | 49ers +9 v. Bills | Top | 16-45 | Loss | -115 | 36 h 44 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers + the points over Buffalo. The Bills have righted themselves after an 0-2 start to the season by winning 3 straight against Arizona, New England and Los Angeles. On Sunday, they've been installed as large favorites vs. San Francisco, which has dropped four straight following its season-opening shutout win over the Rams. We'll grab the points with the Niners, as they fall into 143-67, 142-61, and 285-188 ATS systems of mine. Additionally, the Bills fall into a negative 29.3% ATS angle, which plays against certain favorites in non-division games off back-to-back SU/ATS wins against opponents off a SU loss. And they've covered just four of 22 games since Nov. 18, 2007 off 2 ATS wins (including 0-for-6 vs. a foe off a SU loss). Take San Francisco. |
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10-16-16 | Panthers -2.5 v. Saints | Top | 38-41 | Loss | -105 | 36 h 44 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers minus the points over New Orleans. The Panthers had a dream season last year (at least going into the Super Bowl), as they lost just one regular season game. This year, through Week 5, they've won just one game! Thus, this game vs. New Orleans is as close to a "must win" in the first half of the season for a playoff hopeful like Carolina. I think they'll get it. Indeed, since 1985, road favorites off 3 straight losses have covered 83% of the time against opponents off a SU win! Meanwhile, the Saints have covered just 14 of 43 division games off a win, if their foe is off a loss. Take Carolina. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-16-16 | Steelers v. Dolphins +7.5 | Top | 15-30 | Win | 100 | 34 h 19 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Miami Dolphins + the points over the Pittsburgh Steelers. This will be a very tough game for Mike Tomlin's crew, as it's a classic "Sandwich" spot. The Steelers are 4-1 on the season, and come into this game off back to back home SU/ATS wins against KC and the New York Jets (both of whom won 10+ games last year), and have a home game against New England (which won 12 games last year) on deck. But nestled in between these games is this road game vs. Miami, which was 6-10 last season, and is 1-4 this year. Besides being an obvious flat spot for Pittsburgh, Miami falls into several of my best systems, with records of 172-93, 112-49 and 100-41 ATS. Finally, the Steelers fall into a negative 64-113 ATS angle which goes against certain winning teams, favored on the road, off back to back covers by 5+ points. Take the Dolphins. NFL Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-16-16 | Bengals +9 v. Patriots | Top | 17-35 | Loss | -115 | 33 h 42 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals + the points over the New England Patriots. Last year, the Bengals were a perfect 8-0 ATS on the road. This season has been somewhat of a struggle for Cincy, as it's 2-3 SU and 1-3-1 ATS, including 0-2-1 ATS on the road. Andy Dalton & Co. will try to get back on the winning track at New England (following an upset loss at Dallas last Sunday), and I love them as an underdog in this game, as they fall into a 154-80 ATS system of mine. Even better: the Patriots have covered just 19 of 52 games when laying 8+ points, while Cincy is 8-2 ATS its last 10 off an upset loss. Finally, teams off road upset losses are 63.2% ATS the past 37 years vs. foes off SU/ATS road favorite wins, including 32-12 ATS if they failed to cover by 9+ points in their previous game. Take Cincy. NFL Underdog Shocker. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-15-16 | Arizona State v. Colorado -12 | Top | 16-40 | Win | 100 | 41 h 13 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Buffaloes minus the points over Arizona State. We played on the Buffaloes two weeks ago, as a 20-point favorite against Oregon State, and were rewarded with a 47-6 blowout win. I had several reasons for playing on Colorado in that game, including the fact they were 4-0 ATS (they're now 6-0 ATS), as well as the fact that they played #4-ranked Michigan extremely tough in defeat. Indeed, but for the 3rd quarter injury to QB Sefo Liufau, the Buffs very well could have won that game. Colorado did lose a close game last week at USC (but covered the 5-point spread), and should rebound at home vs. an Arizona State team giving up 33 ppg. It's true that the Sun Devils have won all 7 meetings since 2006, but their long win streak in the series has set them up in several negative situations, with records of 29-60, 19-50, 13-36 and 43-82 ATS. Finally, the Buffaloes are 18-0 straight-up and 14-4 ATS since 1995 when playing with revenge vs. a conference foe, if the Buffs are not getting 3+ points. Take Colorado. NCAA Game of the Week! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-15-16 | South Alabama v. Arkansas State -5 | Top | 7-17 | Win | 100 | 40 h 10 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Arkansas State Red Wolves minus the points over South Alabama. In its last game, South Alabama pulled one of the biggest upsets of the season-to-date, with a 42-24 win, as a 19-point underdog, over then-Top 25-ranked San Diego State. But off that monumental upset victory, we'll fade the Jaguars on the road, on Saturday, as they fall into a negative 35-108 ATS system of mine. Additionally, teams off wins by 14+ points, as 14-point (or greater) underdogs, have covered just 32.1% over the past 11 seasons. Finally, the Jags are a poor 0-6 ATS off an ATS win in their previous game, while the Red Wolves are 11-0 ATS since 2005 when priced from -3.5 to -10.5 points vs. a foe off a straight-up win. Take Arkansas State. Below the Radar Rout! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-15-16 | New Mexico State v. Idaho -4 | Top | 23-55 | Win | 100 | 38 h 11 m | Show |
At 5 pm, our selection is on the Idaho Vandals minus the points over New Mexico State. We've gone against the Aggies a couple of times this season, with the last being their road game at Troy State, back on Sept. 24. That game was a blowout from the get-go, as Troy State walloped New Mexico State, 52-6. The Aggies did bounce back to win their next game, 37-31, as a 5.5-point home underdog vs. Louisiana Lafayette. Unfortunately, that upset win has triggered several of my best systems that all go against the Aggies as a road underdog on Saturday. Those angles have records of 103-38, 23-5 and 99-55 ATS. Last year, the Aggies survived to defeat the Vandals, 55-48, at home. But New Mexico State's an awful 0-8 ATS off a home game, if they're matched up against a revenge-minded foe, and the Aggies are not getting 7+ points. The revenger is also 9-3 ATS in this series since 2002. Take Idaho. Conference Game of the Year. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-15-16 | Nebraska v. Indiana +3 | Top | 27-22 | Loss | -100 | 37 h 54 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Hoosiers + the points over Nebraska. Nebraska comes into this game with a perfect 5-0 record following its 31-16 home win vs. Illinois. We played against Nebraska in that game, and got the $$$ with the Illini, who were catching 20.5 points in that game. One reason is that I'm of the mindset that the 'Huskers are overrated by being ranked among the nation's Top 10. Indeed, its best win this season was at home, 35-32, vs. Oregon, as a 3-point favorite. At the time, it was impressive (even if Nebraska only "pushed" against the spread), but Oregon has since lost all 3 of its games (both SU and ATS), and failed to cover those games by 16, 21, and 39 points! Nebraska did have last week off, but a week of rest has actually not served undefeated teams (with records of 5-0 or better) well, as they've cashed just 23% on the road in the regular season when not getting 3+ points. Nebraska's also a poor 8-25-1 ATS away from home off a double-digit conference home win. Take the points with the Hoosiers. Underdog Shocker! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-15-16 | Wake Forest +21.5 v. Florida State | Top | 6-17 | Win | 100 | 37 h 47 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons + the points over Florida State. The Seminoles bounced back from their last-second loss to North Carolina with an upset win at Miami. But off that upset win, I expect a letdown vs. a good Wake Forest team. The Demon Deacons are 5-1 this season (their best start since 2006), yet are catching more than 20 points in this game. And .714 (or better) teams are 18-1 ATS as double-digit dogs since 1995 against conference foes off an upset win over another conference foe (with the only ATS loss by a mere half-point). Florida State was already significantly banged-up going into last week's game, but suffered more casualties vs. the Hurricanes, with QB Deondre Francois (shoulder) and star DB Nate Andrews (pectoral) among the wounded. Francois is listed as probable, but Andrews was lost for the season. Admittedly, the Deacs also suffered a key injury last week (QB Kendall Hinton), but the drop-off between Hinton and back-up John Wolford is not significant. And, outside of that injury, the Deacs are relatively healthy. Wake's defense against the run has been strong this season (3.4 ypr against foes that average 4.0 ypr), and it will make things difficult for FSU's Dalvin Cook. Take Wake Forest. NCAA High Roller. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-15-16 | Iowa -11 v. Purdue | Top | 49-35 | Win | 100 | 33 h 18 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes minus the points over the Purdue Boilermakers. The Boilers upset Illinois as a 9-point underdog last week, 34-31. But they were blown out by Maryland, 50-7, in their only other Big 10 tilt this season. And, notwithstanding Purdue's big win last week, it's hard to find much to love about the Boilers' defense. After all, it allowed Maryland to run for 400 yards on 46 carries (8.69 ypr). And then it allowed Illinois to run for 315 yards on 46 carries (6.84 ypr). To put these numbers in perspective, Maryland has rushed for 5.41 ypr in its other games this season, while Illinois has rushed for 5.21 ypr in its other games. Thus, Purdue allowed its two Big 10 foes to get 3.28 and 1.63 ypr more than they have otherwise gained this season. Iowa prefers to run the football, and I expect its backs to have a field day against Purdue's soft run defense. Purdue's an awful 1-15 SU and 3-13 ATS its last 16 as home underdogs! And it also falls into negative 69-154, 89-162, 6-54 and 62-142 ATS systems of mine. Take Iowa. High Noon Hanging! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-09-16 | Bills v. Rams +1 | Top | 30-19 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams over the Buffalo Bills. The Rams are 3-1 on the season (1 game better than the 2-2 Bills), yet find themselves in an underdog (or PK'em) role this afternoon. However, since 1980, home teams off back to back wins, are 84.3% in non-division games, if they are priced as an underdog (or PK), and also own a better W/L percentage than their foe. Take Los Angeles. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-09-16 | Chargers +3.5 v. Raiders | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Chargers + the points over Oakland. The Chargers are 1-3 on the season, while Oakland is 3-1 following its upset win at Baltimore. However, 1-3 teams are 90.3% ATS in Game 5 vs. division rivals off a win, if priced from +9 to -4 points. Take San Diego. |
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10-09-16 | Falcons v. Broncos -4 | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 3 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos minus the points over the Atlanta Falcons. Last week, Atlanta won its 3rd straight game as an underdog, with a blowout win over the Carolina Panthers. And that followed upset wins over the Saints and Raiders. Meanwhile, Denver is 4-0 on the season, and comes into this game off a 20-point win at Tampa Bay.  I look for Atlanta's streak to come to an end at Mile High Stadium, in Denver, as the Broncos -- at least from my perspective -- are the league's best team. Denver's outscoring its opposition by 11 points per game, and is giving up just 16 ppg. Additionally, NFL teams with a 3-0 or 4-0 record have been sensational at home in non-division games, including 28-4 ATS when not laying 7 or more points. But the clincher for me is that teams off 3 straight upset wins have covered just 31% of their non-division games over the past 37 years. Take Denver minus the points. NFL High Roller. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-09-16 | Eagles v. Lions +3.5 | Top | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 60 h 58 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over the Philadelphia Eagles. The Lions were upset by the Chicago Bears, on the road last week, to fall to 1-3 on the season. But all three of Detroit's losses have been close (1, 7, and 3-point defeats). Meanwhile, Philly comes into this game with a 3-0 record, including back to back upset wins its last two games over Chicago & Pittsburgh. And all 3 of Philly's wins have been by double-digits (by an average of 21.67 ppg). But off those two upset wins, we'll fade the Eagles as a road favorite in Detroit. Indeed, since 1980, home teams off a road loss are an awesome 37-14 ATS against non-division foes off back to back upset wins. That's one reason I favor Detroit. Another is that undefeated teams, with a 3-0 record, and a scoring margin better than 14 ppg, are a dismal 8-22 ATS since 1981. Take Detroit. NFL Underdog Shocker! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-09-16 | Jets +9 v. Steelers | Top | 13-31 | Loss | -130 | 16 h 56 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers rebounded off their 31-point loss at Philly to soundly defeat Kansas City, 43-14, at home last week. For the season, Pitt is 3-1 straight-up and ATS. The Jets are the mirror opposite, as they're 1-3 SU and ATS, after falling by 10 points to Seattle at home last Sunday. We'll take the points with the Flyboys, as they fall into a super bounce-back system of mine. What we want to do is play on any road underdog of +3 or more points, off a home loss, if they're matched up against a foe off a home win, provided their opponent didn't fail to cover the spread in its previous game, and has a winning ATS record on the season. Since 1980, our road dogs have covered 62% of the time in this situation. Even better: New York is a super 67-49 ATS as a road underdog (or PK) against opponents off a win. Take New York. NFL Road Warrior. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-08-16 | Notre Dame v. NC State -2.5 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 62 h 49 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on North Carolina State minus the points over Notre Dame, as North Carolina State falls into a super 96-44 ATS system of mine. That system is based, in large part, on the Fighting Irish's sieve-like defense. This is Greg Hudson's first year as Notre Dame defensive coordinator (following a 3-year stint at Purdue). To say that the season has not gone as planned would be a massive understatement. Indeed, if you toss out Notre Dame's game against Nevada (the weakest foe among the Irish's five opponents), then Notre Dame has given up an average of 39.25 points per game! And, for the season, the Irish defense is giving up more than 12 ppg than NC State's defense. That doesn't bode well for the Irish on Saturday, given that the Wolfpack has covered 80% as home favorites the past 37 years vs. foes with defensive averages greater than 31.5 ppg, and 69% vs. foes with defenses that gave up more than 12 ppg than NC State's defense. Take the Wolfpack minus the points. NCAA Football High Noon Hanging. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-07-16 | Clemson v. Boston College +17 | Top | 56-10 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 60 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Boston College Eagles + the points over Clemson. Last week, Clemson won the biggest game of the college season-to-date, when it upset Louisville 42-36, at home, in a match-up of Top 5 teams. Off that win, I look for a letdown on the road on this Friday. Boston College falls into 120-64, 98-39 and 154-84 ATS 'momentum' systems of mine following its back-to-back 30-point wins. Additionally, unbeaten teams, like Clemson, with a 4-0 (or better) record, are an awful 35.4% ATS since 1980 as road favorites of -3 (or more) points, if they're off an upset win. Finally, double-digit favorites are a poor 27.9% ATS off an upset conference win, if they're matched up against a .600 (or better) conference foe since 1980. Take Boston College. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-02-16 | Saints +3.5 v. Chargers | Top | 35-34 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints + the points over the San Diego Chargers. New Orleans fell to 0-3 on the young season with a home loss on Monday night to Atlanta. But San Diego’s not exactly doing much better, as its only win came against the 0-3 Jacksonville Jaguars. We’ll grab the points with New Orleans on Sunday, as it falls into a system of mine which is 15-0-1 ATS since 1986. What we want to do is play on road underdogs of more than 3 points, if they’re 0-3 on the season, and matched up against an opponent with a losing record. Moreover, San Diego is a dreadful 53-72 ATS at home off a pointspread defeat, including 0-7 ATS since 2014. Take New Orleans. NFL High Roller. Good luck, as always….Al McMordie. |
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10-02-16 | Browns +8 v. Redskins | Top | 20-31 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over the Washington Redskins. The Browns are winless on the season, with an 0-3 record, while Washington is 1-2, following its first win of the season last week, at New York. Unfortunately for the 'Skins, they're in an awful situation at home vs. Cleveland on this Sunday. Since 1986, NFL home teams, favored by more than 3 points, with a losing record, are an awful 0-15-1 ATS when matched up against 0-3 opponents. Additionally, the Redskins fall into negative 4-24 and 21-58 ATS systems of mine that go against certain losing teams early in the season, as well as a negative system (33% ATS) which fades certain big favorites with porous defenses (Washington surrenders 30.66 ppg). Take the Browns + the points. Perfect 10 Club Play. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-02-16 | Panthers -3 v. Falcons | Top | 33-48 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers minus the points over the Atlanta Falcons. Last week, Atlanta went into New Orleans and upset the Saints, 45-32, as a 3-point underdog. Meanwhile, Carolina was upset at home, 22-10, by the Minnesota Vikings. I look for the Panthers to bounce back on this Sunday, and get a road win in Atlanta. One of the reasons I want to go against the Falcons is that they just scored 45 points. Unfortunately, teams off upset wins in which they scored 40 or more points have burned money when they’ve been installed as an underdog of +2 or more points the following week. Since 1980, they’ve covered just 24.5% of the time.  That doesn’t bode well for the Falcons on Sunday. Moreover, teams that won 83% or more of their games the previous season have covered 67.3% of the time off an upset home loss since 1981. Finally, NFC South division home teams have covered just 36.1% of their games off a straight-up win since 2002. Take Carolina. NFL Road Warrior. Good luck, as always…Al McMordie. |
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10-01-16 | Wyoming +6 v. Colorado State | Top | 38-17 | Win | 100 | 22 h 9 m | Show |
At 10:15 pm, our selection is on the Wyoming Cowboys + the points over Colorado State. Last week, Wyoming was upset, 27-24, as a 6-point favorite by Eastern Michigan. That was the Cowboys' 3rd straight ATS defeat. Meanwhile, Colorado State covered its 3rd straight in a 7-point loss at Minnesota (as a 17-point underdog). I look for Wyoming to bounce back off its upset loss, as it falls into several of my best "bounce-back" systems, with records of 83-31, 88-27 and 121-42 ATS. Additionally, teams off 3 straight ATS losses have covered 70.4 % vs. Conference foes off a loss, if that foe is also off 3 straight ATS wins. Moreover, Wyoming has cashed 62% as a road underdog off an upset loss since 1980, and has also cashed 76.1% the last 22 years on the road when playing with revenge against a foe off a loss. Finally, Colorado State has been horrid as a favorite vs. revengers that don't have either a winning record or a winning ATS record, as it's covered just 18 of 51. Take Wyoming + the points. NCAA Payback Payday. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-01-16 | Middle Tennessee State -16 v. North Texas | Top | 30-13 | Win | 100 | 19 h 51 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Middle Tennessee St. Blue Raiders minus the points over North Texas. Last week, the Mean Green upset Rice, 42-35, as a 7-point underdog. But off that upset win, I look for a big letdown here, at home, as a double-digit underdog. Indeed, North Texas falls into negative 6-54 and 61-142 ATS systems of mine that go against certain teams off upset wins. Moreover, the Mean Green have been horrid off upset wins. Since 2005, they're 0-17 straight-up, and 4-13 ATS following an outright win as an underdog (and 1-10 ATS in conference games)! Meanwhile, Middle Tennessee has been at its best as a road favorite, as it's 21-4 SU and 17-7-1 ATS the past 12 seasons. And it's also cashed 7 straight as a favorite of -11+ points vs. foes off a win. Take the Blue Raiders minus the points. Conference USA Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-01-16 | Wisconsin v. Michigan -10.5 | Top | 7-14 | Loss | -105 | 63 h 14 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Wisconsin. The Wolverines have been installed as a big favorite over Wisconsin, and it may look tempting to grab the points with the undefeated Badgers. After all, they've already won outright as underdogs vs. LSU and Michigan State. Unfortunately for Wisky, unbeaten teams, with a 4-0 (or better) record have been awful away from home when getting 8+ points. Since 1980, they've covered just 39% of the time (and just 23% if they're playing away from home in back to back games). Even worse: Michigan is averaging 52 ppg on offense (more than 21 ppg better than Wisconsin), and home favorites that average 50+ points have covered 59.2% since 1980, including 64% if they average more than 21 ppg than their opponent. Finally, Jim Harbaugh's teams have gone 26-10 ATS when favored by more than 3 points. Lay the points with Jim Harbaugh's men. NCAA Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-01-16 | Illinois +20 v. Nebraska | Top | 16-31 | Win | 100 | 15 h 23 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Illinois Illini + the points over Nebraska, as Illinois falls into 64-25 and 57-26 ATS systems of mine. Nebraska comes into this game ranked among the Top 15. The 'Huskers have a 4-0 record, and are also 3-0-1 ATS after defeating Northwestern last week, 24-13, as an 8-point favorite. Meanwhile, the Illini were blown out, 34-10, at home by Western Michigan, as a 3-point underdog in their previous game. But I look for Illinois to bounce back on Saturday. One of the things I like to do is play on double-digit conference road underdogs following a 20-point SU and 20-point ATS blowout loss, if they're matched up against a foe off a SU/ATS win, which also has a winning ATS record on the season. Dating back to 1980, our underdogs in this situation have cashed 65% of the time. Additionally, the Illini had last week off, and they've been super when playing with rest. Since 1980, they've cashed 78% as road underdogs in Big 10 games following a week off. Finally, Nebraska is a wallet-busting 5-19-2 ATS since 1980 when playing a rested opponent, if Nebraska, itself, is unrested. Take Illinois. NCAA Elite Info. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-01-16 | Oregon State v. Colorado -19 | Top | 6-47 | Win | 100 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
At 2:30 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Buffaloes minus the points over Oregon State. Colorado is off to a terrific 3-1 start this season. And its only loss was 45-28, at #4-ranked Michigan two weeks ago. But the Buffs covered the spread in that game (they're 4-0 ATS this year), and actually led the Wolverines, 21-7, after the first quarter, and 28-24 early in the 3rd quarter. Unfortunately, Colorado's QB, Sefo Liufau, sustained an injury after throwing his 3rd TD pass to give the Buffaloes that 28-24 lead, and was replaced by freshman QB Steven Montez two series later. The Buffs never scored again in that Michigan game, but Montez threw for 333 yards and three TDs last week at Oregon (and ran for 135 yards and a 4th TD), in Colorado's 41-38 upset of the Ducks (as a 13.5-point underdog). It's unclear who will start this week under center for Colorado, as Liufau is not fully healthy. But Montez was named Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Week, so, regardless which QB is on the field, we're going to back the Buffaloes. For technical support, consider that double-digit home favorites with a winning SU/ATS record, that won outright as double-digit road underdogs in their previous game, have covered 78.1% since 1985 vs. conference foes! Finally, Oregon State has covered just 3 of its last 14 games off a pointspread win. And it's also 3-13 ATS its last 16 conference games. Take the Buffaloes minus the points. NCAA Roadkill. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-01-16 | Florida -10.5 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 13-6 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Florida Gators minus the points over Vanderbilt, as Florida falls into 157-73 and 166-80 ATS systems of mine. Last week, Vanderbilt went into Western Kentucky, and upset the Hilltoppers, 31-30, as 9.5-point underdogs. That upset win, though, sets up the Commodores in several negative systems of mine, including one with a negative 68-154 ATS record since 1980. And this spot against the Gators will be especially difficult, as I expect Florida to be in an ornery mood after blowing a 21-3 halftime lead in Knoxville last week. Florida has been solid over the years on the road in SEC Conference games. Dating back to 1982, it has covered over 60% of the time (67-44-1 ATS). And Vandy has been awful at home vs. foes off a loss, as the Commodores have covered just 32 of 81 games. Finally, over the last 36 seasons, SEC Conference teams have covered just 28% of the time as home underdogs following an upset win over a non-conference foe. With Vandy on a 12-game losing streak at home to the Gators (4-8 ATS), we'll fade the Commodores and take Florida minus the points. High Noon Hanging. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-30-16 | Stanford v. Washington -3 | Top | 6-44 | Win | 100 | 46 h 3 m | Show |
At 9 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Washington Huskies minus the points over Stanford, as Washington falls into 183-113 and 87-29 ATS systems of mine. Last week, Stanford came back in the game's final minutes to defeat UCLA, 22-13, while Washington downed Arizona, 35-28. That was Stanford's 15th win in its last 16 games (and 7th straight Pac-12 road win). But I think the Cardinal's streak ends here, in Seattle. Statistically, the biggest difference between these two teams is on offense. The Huskies are averaging a whopping 45.75 ppg, while Stanford's offense has only generated 25.0 ppg. And faithful followers know I love playing on College teams that can score. Washington also plays this game with revenge from a 31-14 loss at Stanford last season. And revenge-minded home teams have cashed 75% of the time since 1981 if they average more than 20.5 ppg on offense than does their opponent, and their opponent is off a SU/ATS win. Look for Chris Petersen's men to hand Stanford its first loss of the season. Take the Huskies! NCAA High Roller Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-25-16 | Vikings v. Panthers -7 | Top | 22-10 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers minus the points over Minnesota. In their last game, the Vikings upset division rival Green Bay, so I look for a letdown on this Sunday. Minnesota falls into negative 30-75 and 73-139 ATS systems based on that upset win over a division foe. And it's also 0-10 SU and 1-9 ATS on the road as an underdog after defeating the Packers in their previous game. Even worse: the Vikes are 5-18 ATS off an outright win as a home dog in their previous game, including 1-11 ATS if their ATS win percentage is .500 (or better). Finally, the Panthers are a super 22-8-1 ATS at home their last 31, including 9-1 ATS vs. winning teams, and 11-1 ATS vs. foes off a pointspread victory. Take Carolina to blow out Minnesota. NFL Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-24-16 | California v. Arizona State -3.5 | Top | 41-51 | Win | 100 | 19 h 16 m | Show |
At 10 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Arizona State Sun Devils minus the points over the California Golden Bears, as Arizona State falls into 102-38, 107-35, and 82-25 ATS systems of mine. Last week, California upset the Texas Longhorns, 50-43, as a 7.5-point home underdog. But off that upset win, I expect a major letdown, on the road on Saturday night, in Temple. Indeed, the Bears have covered just 16 of 42 off upset wins, including an awful 3 of 19 when playing a competitively-priced game with a pointspread less than 7 points (and 1-9 ATS on the road). That doesn't bode well for California on Saturday. And neither does the fact that the Bears have given up 39.67 ppg this season. California gave up 31 to a horrible Hawaii team in its opener (a 51-31 win, but 1.5-point ATS loss), and then gave up 45 points in a 5-point loss (but 1/2 point cover) to San Diego State in its second game. For technical support, consider that teams off upset wins, that surrender 38.5+ points per game, are a horrid 25.6% ATS over the past 36 seasons vs. conference foes off straight-up wins (including 0-13 ATS if our play-against team (here, California) gave up more than 14 points in its upset win, and also covered the spread 2 games back)! Since 1984, Arizona State is 11-0 ATS as home favorites vs. conference foes that pulled an upset the previous week! Take the Sun Devils. Pac-12 Game of the Year. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-24-16 | Stanford v. UCLA +3 | Top | 22-13 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 14 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins + the points over the Stanford Cardinal. UCLA comes into this game 2-1 straight-up, but 0-3 ATS, while Stanford is perfect SU and ATS this season. The knee jerk reaction might be to play against UCLA here, but consider the following: Since 1981, at Game 4 forward, .500 (or better) teams have cashed 72.4 percent of the time if they were winless ATS, not favored by 7+ points, and their opponent was 100% perfect ATS! Even better: UCLA has dominated as home underdogs (or PK), and when matched up against foes not off a loss, the Bruins have gone 29-11-1 ATS since 1981. Look for the Bruins to upset the Cardinal on Saturday night. Pac-12 Dog of Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-24-16 | South Carolina v. Kentucky -2 | Top | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 17 h 42 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats minus the points over South Carolina. Last week, the Gamecocks moved to 2-1 SU/ATS this season with a 20-15 win over East Carolina, while the Wildcats defeated the New Mexico State Aggies, 62-42, to notch their first win of the season. I look for Kentucky to make it two straight on this Saturday evening, as they fall into 123-54 and 338-236 ATS systems of mine based on their blowout win. Additionally, single-digit home favorites off a win the previous week, in which they scored 60+ points, have cashed a staggering 74% of the time since 1980 vs. unrested conference foes. Finally, Kentucky is a terrific 79% ATS since 1980 as a home favorite off a SU win, if its foe has a winning pointspread record. Take the Wildcats. NCAA Elite Info. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-24-16 | Oklahoma State v. Baylor -8 | Top | 24-35 | Win | 100 | 17 h 40 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Baylor Bears minus the points over Oklahoma State, as Baylor falls into 58-24, 97-51 and 94-44 ATS systems of mine. Baylor comes into this game with a 3-0 record, but has yet to cover the pointspread. It should break through with an ATS win this week. Indeed, since 1980, undefeated teams, with a 3-0 (or better) record, have covered 75% of the time as a favorite of less than 16 points, if they were winless ATS on the season. That bodes very well for the Bears on Saturday. Additionally, the Bears are a superb 25-3 straight-up and 21-7 ATS at home the past 6 seasons, while the Cowboys are an awful 1-13 ATS as road underdogs, priced from +7.5 to +11.5, against Big 12 foes. Take Baylor. Big 12 Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-24-16 | New Mexico State v. Troy -20 | Top | 6-52 | Win | 100 | 16 h 9 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Troy State Trojans minus the points over New Mexico State. The Trojans stunned Southern Mississippi, 37-31, last week, as 9.5-point road underdogs. Off that big upset win, I look for Troy St. to blow out New Mexico State on Saturday. One of the things I love to do is play on home favorites of a touchdown (or more), if they're off an away upset win as a dog of more than 7 points. Such teams are 95-55 ATS since 1980! That's one reason I favor Troy. Another is that New Mexico State has covered just 25% of the time since 1999 off a loss, if it's playing on the road vs. .666 (or better) foes. Lay the points with the Trojans. Roadkill Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-24-16 | Georgia Southern v. Western Michigan -7 | Top | 31-49 | Win | 100 | 16 h 7 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Western Michigan Broncos minus the points over Georgia Southern. This is an interesting match-up between two undefeated teams that both have 3-0 records. But the Broncos have played the MUCH TOUGHER schedule, as they have defeated two Big 10 opponents (Northwestern, Illinois) on the road, while the Eagles' best win was against South Alabama. We played on Georgia Southern in that 24-9 victory (as a 13.5-point favorite) over South Alabama, but that was a GREAT situational spot for the Eagles, as South Alabama was ripe for a letdown following its upset win (as a 28-point underdog) vs. Mississippi St. But in Georgia Southern's other two games (vs. Savannah State and Louisiana Monroe), it failed to cover the spread by an average of 13.5 ppg. And its average pointspread differential on the season is a poor -8.5 ppg. In contrast, W. Michigan has covered by an average of 12.5 ppg, and falls into a 143-79 ATS 'momentum' system of mine. Finally, the Broncos play this game with revenge from a 43-17 loss in Statesboro last year, and Sun Belt Conference teams (like Georgia Southern) are an awful 36% ATS the past 17 seasons vs. non-conference foes that play with revenge from a double-digit loss. Lay the points with the Broncos. NCAA Payback Payday. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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