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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-18-19 | Maryland v. Ohio State -2 | Top | 75-61 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Maryland. The Terrapins are on a 6-game win streak, while Ohio State has lost its last three games, both SU and ATS. But we'll lay the points with Ohio State, as favorites (or PK'em teams) are 46-22 ATS if they're off 3+ losses, and their opponent is off 4+ wins, and owns a .500 (or better) record. Take the Buckeyes. |
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01-17-19 | Michigan State v. Nebraska +2 | Top | 70-64 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 10 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Nebraska Cornhuskers + the points over Michigan State. The Spartans have won their last 10 games, and have covered six straight. Unfortunately for Michigan State, NCAA road teams off 10+ wins and 3+ covers are a poor 20% ATS in the regular season when not favored by more than 3 points, if they were playing the 2nd of back to back games away from home. Take Nebraska. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-17-19 | The Citadel v. Samford -8 | Top | 77-80 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Samford Bulldogs minus the points over The Citadel. Samford returns to its home arena tonight, after a 3-game road trip which saw it go 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS. But Samford's been terrific at home this year, as it's 8-2 straight-up, and 7-2 ATS. It's true that Samford is off back to back SU losses as a favorite. However, it falls into 86-38, 80-35 and 72-34 ATS systems of mine that each play on certain teams off upset losses. Lay the points with Samford. |
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01-17-19 | Kings v. Hornets -3 | Top | 95-114 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Charlotte Hornets minus the points over Sacramento. These two teams met in the California state capital five days ago, and the Kings earned a 104-97 victory, as a 6-point home favorite. That win was part of a 3-game home stand for the Kings, in which they went 3-0 SU/ATS. Now, however, Sacramento is on the road. And it's an awful 3-12 ATS its last 15 when facing a revenge-minded foe on the road, while Charlotte is 6-3 ATS this season when playing with revenge. And Sacramento is a also a poor 4-12 ATS as an underdog off 3 ATS wins, and 21-44 ATS on the road off 3+ straight-up wins. Lay the points with the Hornets. NBA Payback Payday. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-17-19 | Towson +5.5 v. Drexel | Top | 66-72 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Towson Tigers + the points over Drexel. The Dragons are favored tonight, even though they've lost the last six in this series, and 10 of the last 12. Of course, the primary reason is that Towson is mired in a 5-game SU/ATS losing streak. But Colonial Athletic Association teams are a solid 84-62 ATS in conference games off 3 SU/ATS losses. Take Towson + the points. |
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01-16-19 | Jazz v. Clippers -1.5 | Top | 129-109 | Loss | -118 | 16 h 23 m | Show |
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over Utah.  The Clippers are on a 3-game losing streak, while the Jazz are on a 4-game win streak. But I love Los Angeles to put an end to its losing ways, tonight. The Clippers are 22-10-1 ATS at home, off a home loss, if their opponent was off back to back wins, including 8-0-1 ATS when priced from -2 to +3.5 points. And Utah's a poor 17-39-1 ATS as a road underdog of less than 8 points in the regular season. Take the Clippers. |
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01-16-19 | Iowa State +5.5 v. Texas Tech | Top | 68-64 | Win | 100 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
At 9 pm, on ESPN-U television, our selection is on the Iowa State Cyclones + the points over Texas Tech. The Red Raiders have won five straight games, including a road win at Texas, on Saturday. Meanwhile, the Cyclones have dropped their last two contests. But Texas Tech falls into a negative 33-74 ATS system of mine following that upset win, in Austin. Additionally, the Cyclones are a super 49-30-2 ATS off a loss, if their opponent is off back to back wins. And they're 69-47-2 ATS off back to back point spread losses. Finally, the Red Raiders are a money-burning 17-36 ATS at home (or on neutral courts) off an upset win, including 2-16 ATS when priced from +2 to -9 points. Take Iowa State. NCAA TV Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-16-19 | Georgia Tech v. Clemson -6.5 | Top | 60-72 | Win | 100 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Clemson Tigers minus the points over Georgia Tech. Clemson is winless in ACC Conference play, with an 0-3 record. Of course, it was also an underdog in those three ACC games. Tonight, it's a home favorite vs. Georgia Tech. And Clemson has won 13 straight (8-5 ATS) home games vs. the Yellow Jackets, by an average of 9.92 ppg. The Tigers are also 53-23 ATS at home off a double-digit loss. Take the Tigers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-16-19 | Spurs +1 v. Mavs | Top | 105-101 | Win | 100 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs over Dallas. The Spurs were upset by Tony Parker & the Charlotte Hornets, 108-93, on Monday, as a 7.5-point favorite. But San Antonio generally bounces back from upset home defeats, as it's 116-78 ATS, including 3-1 ATS this season. Take San Antonio. |
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01-16-19 | Raptors v. Celtics -2 | Top | 108-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics over Toronto. The Celtics will get the services of PG Kyrie Irving back tonight, which is all I need to pull the trigger on them, here, at home. Boston's dropped its last three games, but it's an awesome 19-5 ATS in the regular season off 3+ defeats (including 9-0 ATS at home). Take the Celtics. |
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01-16-19 | Drake v. Bradley -3.5 | Top | 69-52 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Bradley Braves minus the points over Drake. The Braves are on a 4-game SU/ATS losing streak, but I love them to bounce back tonight. Bradley's generally been great at home, as they're 19-9-1 ATS their last 29. And Missouri Valley Conference home teams are also a super 96-68-4 ATS off 3 (or more) SU/ATS losses. Take Bradley. |
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01-16-19 | South Carolina v. Vanderbilt -3.5 | Top | 74-71 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Vanderbilt Commodores minus the points over South Carolina. The Commodores are 9-6 on the season, but do come into this game on a 3-game losing streak. I look for Vandy to get back into the win column this evening, as it is 18-5 ATS at home off back to back losses, if it had a .600 (or better) record. Take the Commodores. |
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01-16-19 | Iowa v. Penn State -1.5 | Top | 89-82 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Penn State Nittany Lions minus the points over Iowa. The Nitts have started the Big 10 season 0-6, but they were underdogs in five of those six games. They're favored this evening. And they're 33-19 ATS their last 52 as favorites, including 8-1 ATS off back to back losses, and 21-9 ATS when the line was -7 (or less) points! In contrast, the Nitts are 4-12 ATS as underdogs of +7 or less points, and 12-18-1 ATS, overall, as underdogs. Meanwhile, Iowa enters off 3 SU/ATS wins. But Big 10 Conference single-digit underdogs are an awful 30-57 ATS over the last 28 seasons if they won and covered their three previous games. And the Hawkeyes have also covered just seven of their last 31 road games. Take Penn State. NCAA Roadkill Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-15-19 | Nevada v. Boise State +8 | Top | 72-71 | Win | 100 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Boise State Broncos + the points over Nevada. The Broncos have a very strong home court, and have won 87 of 101 home games over the past seven seasons. They've also won their last three games by 14, 24, and 23 points. That bodes well for them as a big home underdog tonight, as home teams off a nine-point win, and 3 ATS wins overall, have gone 20-1 ATS when getting 4+ points, if they have a strong home court, with at least 32 wins in their previous 40 home games. Take Boise State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-15-19 | Heat v. Bucks -8.5 | Top | 86-124 | Win | 100 | 2 h 45 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Miami. This is a major revenge spot for the Milwaukee Bucks, who have lost six straight times to Miami, including a 94-87 defeat earlier this season. But NBA revenge-minded favorites of -5 or more points, that have lost their previous six meetings to their opponent (including an earlier season defeat), have covered at a 58% clip over the past 29 seasons. That bodes well for the Bucks. As does the fact that Milwaukee is #1 in point differential this season, and is outscoring foes at home by 13.6 ppg (120.4 to 106.8). Not surprisingly, the Bucks are 19-4 straight-up, and 15-7-1 ATS at home. Finally, the Bucks return to Milwaukee tonight after a 3-game road trip. And the Bucks are 51-31 ATS at home off a 3-game (or longer) road trip. Take the Bucks minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-15-19 | South Florida v. Cincinnati -13 | Top | 74-82 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bearcats minus the points over South Florida. Cincy is 14-3 on the season, but has lost its last three games to the point spread. Meanwhile, South Florida has covered its last four. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the "hot" Bulls, and against the "cold" Bearcats. But consider that double-digit favorites, with win percentages greater than .800, have covered 70% since 1990 if they lost their previous three games to the spread, while their opponent was off three ATS wins. And South Florida's a wallet-busting 5-13 ATS on a 3-game ATS win streak. Take Cincy. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-14-19 | Florida State -4.5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 62-75 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles minus the points over Pittsburgh. The Seminoles are 13-3 this season, with losses to ACC rivals Duke + Virginia (arguably the top 2 teams in the entire country), and Villanova -- the defending national champions. Tonight, they'll travel to the Steel City to take on Pittsburgh, which has rebounded nicely off its winless ACC Conference season last year. Pitt has won 11 of its first 16 games, overall, and has covered the spread in two of its first three ACC games.  But long-term, the Panthers haven't done well at home for almost a decade. Since November 27, 2010, the Panthers are an awful 46-76-2 ATS at home, including 19-44-1 ATS vs. opponents off a straight-up loss. With FSU, indeed, off a loss to Duke in its last game, we'll lay the points with Florida State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-12-19 | Colts v. Chiefs -5 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 36 h 21 m | Show |
At 4:35 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Indianapolis. Certainly, the Chiefs' lack of playoff success (1-11 record since 1994) hangs like an albatross around their neck. But from my perspective that factoid is a bunch of noise, and has worked to provide us with point spread value in this game. Instead, the most important statistic for this game is that the Chiefs had the #1 offense in the league this season (425.6 yards), and scored the most points (35.3). And if I can play on a rested home team, which has a proficient offense which scores 28+ points a game, and lay less than a touchdown against an opponent playing back-to-back road playoff games, I'm going to do it virtually every time. Of course, Indianapolis isn't just playing "back-to-back" road games. This will actually be its 3RD STRAIGHT game away from home. And NFL road teams have cashed just 35.7 percent in the playoffs if they were playing their 3rd straight on the road. Take Kansas City to blow out the Colts. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-12-19 | Austin Peay v. Tennessee-Martin +7.5 | Top | 72-70 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks + the points over Austin Peay. The Governors are off three straight wins -- each by double-digits. But off those wins, we'll fade Austin Peay this afternoon, as it's an awful 20% ATS over the past 17 seasons as a favorite of more than 4 points off back to back double-digit wins. And Tennessee-Martin also falls into 123-59, 158-87 and 82-42 ATS systems of mine. Grab the points with the home underdog Skyhawks. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-12-19 | Delaware v. College of Charleston -10 | Top | 58-71 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Charleston College Cougars minus the points over Delaware. The Cougars were upset, 79-78, as a 13-point home favorite in their last game, while Delaware enters off four straight wins and covers. But I love the Cougars to bounce back this afternoon, as they've covered 69% over the last 14 years off an upset loss if their opponent was off back to back wins. Lay the points with Charleston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-12-19 | South Alabama v. Arkansas-Little Rock -2.5 | Top | 62-91 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Arkansas Little Rock Trojans minus the points over South Alabama. Little Rock upset Troy State, 73-59, as a 2-point home underdog in its last game. And that upset win has triggered one of my best "momentum" systems this afternoon. That system has a record of 107-43 ATS since 1990, and is the primary reason for our play today on the Trojans. Additionally, South Alabama has covered just 37% as an underdog vs. foes off upset wins, and has won straight-up just once in its past 22 road games (which is a factor here, given the very short point spread). Lay the small number with Arkansas Little Rock. |
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01-12-19 | South Florida v. Temple -9.5 | Top | 80-82 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
At 2 pm, our selection is on the Temple Owls minus the points over South Florida. We played on Temple in its last game, when it handed the then-15-0 Houston Cougars their first loss of the season. They now have to play another tough foe in South Florida, which is 12-3 to start the 2018-19 campaign. But Temple excels against great teams as it's 45-27-4 ATS vs. .690 (or better) foes, including 24-10 ATS at home. Take the Owls. |
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01-12-19 | Princeton v. Pennsylvania -6.5 | Top | 62-53 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
At 2 pm, our selection is on the Pennsylvania Quakers minus the points over Princeton. These two teams met last Saturday to kick off this Ivy League season, and the Tigers won outright, in overtime, as a 1.5-point home underdog. We'll take the Quakers to avenge that defeat, as they've cashed 73% at home since 1992 when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season, and priced from -3 to -10 points. Take Pennsylvania. |
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01-12-19 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State -5.5 | Top | 81-77 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 9 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs minus the points over Mississippi. The Bulldogs were upset on the road earlier this week by the South Carolina Gamecocks. But I love the Bulldogs to rebound off that defeat, and snap Ole Miss' 9-game win streak in the process. Over the last 29 years, the Bulldogs are a super 67% ATS at home off an upset road loss. And the favorite in this rivalry series is 6-0 if the underdog is off back to back wins, and it's a perfect 10-0 ATS when priced from -5 to -7.5 points. Take Mississippi State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-12-19 | Miami-OH +17.5 v. Buffalo | Top | 64-88 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 7 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Miami-Ohio Red Hawks + the points over Buffalo. The Bulls are 14-1, and are ranked among the Top 20 in the nation. And they've won their last three games by 15, 16 and 30 points. But I love Miami to get inside the number today, as it falls into a 116-48 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off double-digit losses. Additionally, Mid-American Conference teams have only cashed 20% at home over the past 13 years off three straight wins by 15+ points. Take the Red Hawks. |
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01-12-19 | Virginia v. Clemson +7 | Top | 63-43 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 7 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Clemson Tigers + the points over Virginia. The Cavaliers are undefeated, at 14-0, and were also my preseason pick (at 22-1 odds) to win the NCAA Championship this season. But we will fade Virginia this afternoon, as Clemson comes into this game off back to back SU/ATS losses at Duke and Syracuse. However, Clemson is an incredible 100-63 ATS off back to back losses since 1990, including 48-28 ATS if they also failed to cover the spread in each of those two defeats. Take the Tigers. |
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01-11-19 | Nets v. Raptors -9.5 | Top | 105-122 | Win | 100 | 15 h 23 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over Brooklyn. The Raptors lost the first meeting this season between these two teams. But that loss has triggered a very good 134-65 ATS revenge system of mine. I look for Toronto to avenge that defeat, as it had won 12 straight games vs. the Nets (8-4 ATS) before its defeat last month. The Raptors are 42-27 ATS their last 69 vs. losing teams, and 22-5 ATS at home vs. division rivals (including 14-0 ATS when favored by less than 11 points). Take Toronto. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-10-19 | Pacific +25 v. Gonzaga | Top | 36-67 | Loss | -109 | 18 h 54 m | Show |
At 11 pm, our selection is on the Pacific Tigers + the points over Gonzaga. The Bulldogs come into this game off five straight wins and covers, and have won each of those five games by 43+ points. But we'll go against the Bulldogs tonight, as double-digit home favorites have covered just 36% of conference games since 1990 off 3 SU/ATS wins, if they won each of those games by 25+ points. Take Pacific + the points. |
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01-10-19 | Murray State v. Tennessee-Martin +12.5 | Top | 98-77 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 23 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks + the points over Murray State. The Racers are on a 3-game win streak, following home wins over Eastern Kentucky, Morehead State and Bethel. But the Racers are an awful 12-38 ATS as a favorite of more than 8 points off back to back wins. Take Tennessee-Martin. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-10-19 | Middle Tennessee +11.5 v. Southern Miss | Top | 70-77 | Win | 100 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders + the points over Southern Mississippi. The Blue Raiders have covered the point spread just once this season -- three games ago at Rhode Island. We cashed Middle Tenn in that game, and will come back with it, here, tonight, as it falls into a strong 76-26 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off back to back SU/ATS losses. Additionally, the Blue Raiders are 19-9 ATS off an upset loss, and 5-0 ATS off back to back home defeats. Take the Blue Raiders. |
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01-10-19 | UAB v. Louisiana Tech -5.5 | Top | 53-64 | Win | 100 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs minus the points over UAB, as the Bulldogs fall into a 121-60 ATS system of mine. The Blazers are 3-0 straight-up and 2-0 ATS in their last three games. But all three of those games were played at home. The Blazers have played just two true road games this season (among their 15 games), and are 0-2 ATS in those two games. And they're 8-17 ATS their last 25 road games, and 2-9 ATS on the road off a home win. The Bulldogs, meanwhile, were upset by Rice last Saturday, 78-66. But Louisiana Tech is a solid 10-5 ATS off an upset loss, including 7-1 ATS as a single-digit favorite. Take the Bulldogs. NCAA Roadkill Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-10-19 | SMU v. Connecticut -1.5 | Top | 64-76 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Connecticut Huskies minus the points over SMU. The Huskies are 9-6 on the season, but have started out 0-2 in American Athletic Conference play. Meanwhile, SMU has won both its conference games. But I love UConn tonight, as .600 (or better) teams that are winless in Conference play, with an 0-2 (or worse) record, are 69.4% ATS vs. conference foes that are 2-0 (or better) inside the conference, if our winless team was PK'em or favored. Take the Huskies. AAC Game of the Month! Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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01-09-19 | Pistons +1.5 v. Lakers | Top | 100-113 | Loss | -107 | 17 h 28 m | Show |
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Pistons + the points over the LA Lakers. LeBron James remains out for the Lakers, who have won just two of seven games in his absence. One of those victories was their last game, at Dallas. But the Lakers are an awful 10-18 ATS off a straight-up win, and 7-17 ATS vs. losing clubs. Finally, L.A. is 1-4 SU/ATS vs. the Pistons in the last five meetings. Take Detroit. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-09-19 | Houston v. Temple +1.5 | Top | 69-73 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Temple Owls over Houston. The Cougars enter this game with a perfect 15-0 record. But I expect the Owls to saddle the Cougars with their first defeat of the season. Temple is 38-12 ATS at home over the last 12 years vs. conference foes if the Owls weren't favored by more than six points, including 17-2 ATS if their win percentage was greater than .580. Take Temple. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-08-19 | Oklahoma v. Texas Tech -6 | Top | 59-66 | Win | 100 | 16 h 22 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Texas Tech Red Raiders minus the points over Oklahoma. This series has been dominated by the homestanding teams. Since February 23, 2000, the home team has gone 24-13 ATS including 8-0 ATS since 2015. That bodes well for the Red Raiders tonight. As does the fact that the Sooners are 0-15 ATS with a winning record, if they were off a home/neutral win vs. a Big 12 Conference foe in their previous game. Take Texas Tech. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-08-19 | Wolves v. Thunder -8 | Top | 119-117 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 36 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma City Thunder minus the points over Minnesota. These two teams also played here, in Oklahoma, 16 days ago, and the Thunder were upset, 114-112. We'll take the Thunder in this revenge situation on Tuesday, as the Thunder are 61.4% ATS since 1990 against losing teams, when OKC is playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season, and not favored by more than 9 points. Even better: the Thunder lost, 116-98, here vs. the Wizards on Sunday. But .625 (or better) teams have cashed 61% since 1990 at home off a home loss in which they failed to cover the point spread by 25+ points. Take OKC. NBA Payback Payday. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-07-19 | Grizzlies +5.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 95-114 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Grizzlies + the points over New Orleans. The Grizzlies' promising start to the season is nothing but a memory at this point. Memphis started 12-5 SU and ATS. But it has gone 6-16 SU and 5-17 ATS since. It is currently riding a 5-game losing streak (and 6-game ATS losing streak). I look for the Grizzlies, though, to snap their point spread slide tonight. They're on the road at division rival, New Orleans, which is coming off a 35-point blowout of Cleveland. And since 1990, road underdogs of more than 4 points have cashed 60% vs. division rivals off a straight-up win. Even better: Memphis is 10-4 SU/ATS vs. New Orleans since April 2015. And New Orleans is an awful 9-31-1 ATS off a 20-point (or greater) win. Take Memphis. NBA Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-07-19 | Alabama v. Clemson +6 | Top | 16-44 | Win | 100 | 162 h 42 m | Show |
At 8 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Clemson Tigers + the points over Alabama. It's hard for me to pass up this many points with a team which has the better rush defense, the better rush offense, and the better defense in terms of points per game. Clemson has allowed 11.9 ppg, while Alabama's defense has given up 16.2. And Clemson rushed for 6.7 yards per carry (against foes that give up 4.5 ypr). On defense, the Tigers were also stellar, as they gave up just 2.4 yards per rush (against foes that averaged 4.4). In contrast, Alabama rushed for 5.3 ypr (against foes that surrendered 4.5 ypr (the same as Clemson's opponents, but 1.4 ypr less than Clemson gained)). And Alabama gave up 3.5 ypr against foes that averaged 4.8 ypr). When all the numbers are blended together, then Clemson's total YPR differential was +2.40 relative to Alabama. And its defense differential was +3.28 ppg. To illustrate how rare it is that you get that combination of YPR and Defensive PPG strength in a big underdog in a bowl game, consider that in the last 39 years, there has NEVER been an underdog of +6 or more points -- until Clemson in this game -- that owned a defense 3.28 ppg better, and a Total YPR differential of +2.40. Ok, so what if we relaxed our stats and just looked at how single-digit underdogs did if they owned a defensive PPG differential greater than 0, and a Total YPR differential greater than 0? Then, we find those teams have gone a very solid 104-71-2 ATS in the Bowl games. That's one reason I love Clemson as a big underdog. Another is that the Tigers lost in the semi-finals last year to Alabama. And defending National Champions are an awful 8-29-2 ATS when priced from -2 to -6.5 points vs. revenge-minded foes, including 1-19 ATS if their opponent covered its previous game by more than 3 points! With the Tigers in off a 30-3 blowout of Notre Dame, as a 10.5-point favorite, we'll grab the points with the Tigers. Take Clemson. NCAA Game of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-06-19 | Pacers +1 v. Raptors | Top | 105-121 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers + over Toronto. The Pacers had last night off, while Toronto was in Milwaukee to play the Bucks. Toronto won that game, but now has to take on a revenge-minded Pacers team, which Toronto defeated by 3 points earlier this season. And Indiana also comes into this game on a red-hot roll, with six wins in a row. The Pacers are a fantastic 216-154, 58.4% ATS when rested and playing with revenge against an opponent off a win, and we'll back Indiana this evening. NBA High Roller Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-06-19 | St Bonaventure +5.5 v. George Mason | Top | 53-68 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
At 4 pm, our selection is on the St. Bonaventure Bonnies + the points over George Mason. The Patriots kicked off their Atlantic 10 campaign with an upset win over St. Joseph's, 85-60 to move their record to 7-7 this season. They'll try to make it two Conference wins in a row this afternoon. But the Patriots are a horrid 2-16-2 ATS at home in Conference games, including 0-11-2 ATS as a favorite, if they entered off an upset win in their previous game. That certainly doesn't bode well for George Mason today. Nor does the fact that two of my better systems -- with records of 402-247 and 299-187 ATS -- both go against the Patriots today. Finally, .500 (or worse) Atlantic 10 Conference teams have covered just 56 of 139 Conference home games off an upset win. Take the points with St. Bonaventure. Perfect 10 Club play. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-05-19 | Warriors -7.5 v. Kings | Top | 127-123 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over Sacramento. The Warriors were up BIG over the Houston Rockets at the half of Thursday's game, but fell apart in the 2nd half, and lost at the buzzer, 135-134. Golden State is now in the 3rd seed in the Western Conference -- just 2 games ahead of Houston. And the Warriors are only 2.5 games in front of the Clippers for the division lead. I love Golden State to rebound off that loss in this Pacific division game in Sacramento, as the Warriors are an awesome 45-19 ATS off a loss, if matched up against a division rival. It's true that Sacramento is much-improved this season. The Kings are 19-19 straight-up, and 21-16-1 ATS. But the Kings are doing a lot better vs. teams that don't score a lot of points, compared to the ones that do. Indeed, this season, Sacramento is 14-6 straight-up and 15-5 ATS vs. foes that average less than 110 points per game. Against the better offenses that score 110+ points per game, Sacramento is 5-13 straight-up, and 6-11-1 ATS. Golden State, of course, has one of the league's best offenses, and scores 116.2 ppg. Similarly, the Warriors are excelling against the league's lesser defenses and/or faster-paced teams that give up 110+ points. Golden State is a solid 11-8 ATS vs. those teams, but an awful 5-15 ATS vs. foes that don't surrender 110 points per game. Take the Warriors to blow out the Kings. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-05-19 | Southern Utah +13.5 v. Weber State | Top | 90-82 | Win | 100 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Southern Utah Thunderbirds + the points over Weber State. It's true that the Thunderbirds come into this game off four double-digit losses by 42, 30, 13, and 20 points. But this string of defeats have triggered two of my best systems, with records of 398-214 and 495-281 ATS since 1990. Moreover, the Wildcats have not performed well as a favorite, as they've covered just 21 of 54 games. Take Southern Utah. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-05-19 | Elon +8 v. Delaware | Top | 65-77 | Loss | -115 | 1 h 24 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Elon Phoenix + the points over the Delaware Blue Hens. Delaware comes into this game off back to back upset wins over Northeastern and William and Mary. The Hens have actually done quite well this season as an underdog, as they're 7-2-1 ATS. But, tonight, Delaware is a big favorite, and it is a relatively poor 1-3 ATS as a favorite this season, including two outright losses as an 11-point favorite (vs. Navy) and as a 21.5-point favorite (vs. Delaware St.). Delaware is a money-burning 13-23 ATS at home off back to back wins, and it is just 35% ATS since 2007 as a favorite off an upset win. Finally, Elon falls into 401-246 and 330-196 ATS systems of mine. Take Elon + the points. NCAA Underdog Shocker. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-05-19 | Colorado v. Arizona State -6.5 | Top | 61-83 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
At 6 pm, our selection is on the Arizona State Sun Devils minus the points over Colorado. The Sun Devils pulled off a big upset when they defeated then-No. 1-ranked Kansas, 80-76, two weeks ago. Somewhat predictably, the Sun Devils had a letdown and proceeded to get upset in each of their next two games -- vs. Princeton and Utah. But off those two upset losses, I look for Arizona State to right its ship this evening. Since Jan. 17, 2015, the Sun Devils are an awesome 9-0 SU/ATS at home off back to back losses. And they're 40-19 ATS at home off back to back losses since 2001. Meanwhile, the Buffaloes are a horrid 11-28 ATS their last 39 road games when installed as an underdog. Take Arizona State. Pac 12 Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-05-19 | Kansas v. Iowa State -1 | Top | 60-77 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
At 5 pm, our selection is on the Iowa State Cyclones minus the points over Kansas. The Jayhawks have lost just once this season, but find themselves as an underdog at 11-2 Iowa State. We'll go against Kansas, as Big 12 Conference underdogs that have a better record than Iowa State have covered just 27% away from home vs. the Cyclones. Take Iowa State. |
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01-05-19 | Colts v. Texans -2.5 | Top | 21-7 | Loss | -103 | 130 h 58 m | Show |
At 4:35 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans over Indianapolis. This is a great playoffs match-up between two AFC South division rivals that rebounded strongly this season off 4-12 records last year. These two teams split road wins in their two regular season match-ups, and we cashed tickets in both games. In the first game, we had a huge play on the Houston Texans, who won, 37-34, at Indianapolis. Then, in the more recent game, here in Houston, we played on the 'under' 49, and cashed when the Colts won, 24-21. For this game, we'll take the homestanding Texans, and go against an Indianapolis team off a 33-17 win last Sunday, at Tennessee. Unfortunately for Frank Reich's men, road teams off a SU/ATS win, with winning SU/ATS records, have fared poorly in divisional match-ups when priced from +1.5 to -6.5 points. Since 1980, such road teams have covered just 41% of their games. Even worse for the Colts, AFC South division road teams have covered just one of six Wild Card Playoff games since 2005. And, finally, revenge-minded teams, like Houston, with win percentages between .600 and .750, that lost the season's previous meeting by less than 4 points, have cashed 94% (15-1 ATS) in the Playoffs. Take Houston. NFL Elite Info Winner! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-05-19 | Northeastern +7 v. Hofstra | Top | 72-75 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Northeastern Huskies + the points over Hofstra. The Huskies were shocked, 82-80, as a 12-point home favorite last Sunday, while Hofstra won its ninth straight game (and covered its fifth in a row) with a 14-point blowout win over Drexel. But I look for the Huskies to bounce back on this Saturday afternoon, as NCAA teams off an upset loss as a 12-point (or bigger) favorite, have covered 62% over the past 29 years vs. teams with a winning SU/ATS record that were off back to back SU/ATS wins. And in this series, the underdogs has gone 13-1-1 ATS since February 23, 2010 if it was getting more than 2 points. Take Northeastern. Colonial Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-05-19 | Northern Kentucky -3.5 v. Detroit | Top | 95-73 | Win | 100 | 6 h 12 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Northern Kentucky Norse minus the points over Detroit. The Norse were upset on the road by the Oakland Grizzlies on Thursday, while Detroit won its 3rd straight game (and covered its fifth straight) with a 21-point blowout of Wright State. I look for Northern Kentucky to rebound off its upset defeat, as road favorites are 100%, 10-0 ATS, since 2008 off an upset road loss, if they're playing a conference foe off 3 SU/ATS wins. Take the Norse. |
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01-05-19 | Creighton v. Butler -4.5 | Top | 69-84 | Win | 100 | 5 h 4 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Butler Bulldogs minus the points over Creighton. Butler comes into this game off back to back SU/ATS losses to Florida (we had a big play against Butler in that game) and Georgetown, in which it was a 9.5-point home favorite. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays are in off back to back SU/ATS wins vs. UMKC and an upset win at Providence. However, with Butler off an upset home defeat, and Creighton off an upset road win, we will fade the Blue Jays as a road underdog today. For technical support, consider that in conference games between winning teams, it's been extremely profitable (65.7% ATS) over the last 29 years to play on home favorites off an upset home conference loss, if their opponent was off an upset road conference win. Throw in the fact that Butler is 17-5 ATS at home off an upset loss to a conference foe, while Creighton is 2-12 ATS its last 14 as a road underdog, and we have all the ammunition to pull the trigger on the Bulldogs this afternoon. Lay the points. High Noon Hanging. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-04-19 | Ball State +6.5 v. Toledo | Top | 79-64 | Win | 100 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Ball State Cardinals + the points over Toledo. The Cards have won and covered each of their last three games, including a 59-point blowout of Delaware State on Saturday (and 27 and 16-point wins prior to that). We'll grab the points with Ball State in this Mid-American Conference opener, as teams off back to back 25-point wins are 97-69 ATS vs. conference foes, if our team wasn't favored by 3+ points. And the Cardinals, since 2011, are also 9-0 ATS off a win by 12+ points, if they're getting more than 2 points. Take Ball State. NCAA Elite Info. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-03-19 | Rockets v. Warriors -8.5 | Top | 135-134 | Loss | -104 | 16 h 3 m | Show |
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over Houston. The problem for Golden State in the regular season the last few years is that it (justifiably) cannot get motivated. It understands that all that matters is the post-season, which is why it had just the 3rd best record in the league last season (and a full 7 games worse than this Houston team). This season, it's much of the same, as Golden State is 25-13 straight-up and a poor 16-22 ATS. Thus, as a professional gambler, I try to pick my spots to invest in Golden State, as the team often goes through the motions and doesn't put forth its best effort. They may not come through tonight but, at the very least, one can rest assured that the effort will be there. And that's because they're playing James Harden & the Houston Rockets, who stretched the Warriors to seven games in the de facto NBA Championship last season. And the Warriors are also playing with revenge from a 21-point blowout loss at Houston on November 15, which ranks as the worst road defeat suffered by the Warriors this season. Tonight, though, Golden State is at home. And the Warriors are a super 39-8 straight-up and 29-18 ATS when playing with revenge from a road defeat, including 23-7 ATS when not favored by double-digits. And Golden State is 8-1, 89% ATS vs. Houston when playing with revenge from a loss to Houston earlier in the season. Take the Warriors to blow out Houston tonight. NBA Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-03-19 | Monmouth v. Iona -5.5 | Top | 84-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Iona Gaels minus the points over the Monmouth Hawks. After starting the season with 12 straight losses, the Hawks finally broke into the win column on Saturday with an upset win, as a 14-point underdog, vs. Pennsylvania. Now, Monmouth gets to take on an Iona team looking to snap its own 7-game losing streak. Unfortunately for Monmouth, over the past 15 seasons, losing teams, off an upset road win as a 13-point (or bigger) underdog, have covered just 15.4% on the road vs. foes off back to back losses. Lay the points with Iona. NCAA HOOPS ROADKILL WINNER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-02-19 | Colorado State v. UNLV -8.5 | Top | 76-78 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 55 m | Show |
At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the UNLV Rebels minus the points over Colorado State. The Rebels were blown out by 25 points, 97-72, by Bucknell in their previous game, even though UNLV was favored to win. That game was in Honolulu, in the Diamond Head Classic, on Christmas Day. And UNLV was 0-2, overall, in that Holiday Tournament. But UNLV is back home tonight, and I expect it to bounce back strong in front of its home faithful. Indeed, over the past 14 years, NCAA home teams off 25-point (or worse) upset losses away from home have covered 69% of the time (and 74% if they also lost two games back). And the Rebels are 8-0 ATS the past four seasons at home off a non-conference loss. Take UNLV. NCAA Roadkill Winner! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-02-19 | Oklahoma v. Kansas -8 | Top | 63-70 | Loss | -109 | 17 h 31 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Kansas Jayhawks minus the points over Oklahoma. The Sooners haven't won at Allen Fieldhouse in over 25 years, as they've lost the last 17 meetings. Of course, Kansas doesn't lose at home to any team very often, as it's 241-13 at home since Bill Self took over as head coach in 2003. Kansas did lose for the first time this season, on the road two games ago, when it fell, 80-76, at Arizona State. But it bounced back with a 24-point win (and cover) over Eastern Michigan on Saturday. I look for Kansas to blow out Oklahoma, as it's 64-1 straight-up and 44-18-3 ATS at home if it wasn't off back to back wins, including 26-6 ATS if it was favored by 15 points or less. And Oklahoma is a horrid 32-65-2 ATS away from home vs. Big 12 Conference opponents, when not getting double-digits, including 0-9 ATS its last nine. Take Kansas. Big 12 Conference Game of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-01-19 | Texas +12.5 v. Georgia | Top | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 3 h 21 m | Show |
At 8:45 pm, our selection is on the Texas Longhorns + the points over Georgia. The Bulldogs have the unenviable task of playing in the SEC Conference where they often have to get by Alabama in order to have a shot at a National Championship. They were unable to do it this year, and lost to the Crimson Tide in the SEC Title game. They're now double-digit favorites vs. Texas. But Bowl favorites of more than 7 points, off a loss in their previous game, are an awful 33-56 ATS since 1986. And if they're playing an opponent off a SU/ATS loss that also failed to cover the point spread two games back, then our Bowl favorite is 2-8 ATS. Texas comes into this game off a 39-27 loss to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Title game. But double-digit Bowl underdogs off a loss in which they gave up 38+ points, have cashed 73%, including a perfect 5-0 ATS if their opponent was also off a loss. Take Texas. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-01-19 | Washington +7 v. Ohio State | Top | 23-28 | Win | 100 | 17 h 9 m | Show |
At 5 pm, our selection is on the Washington Huskies + the points over Ohio State. The storyline for this game is that it is coach Urban Meyer's swan song. And, yes, he is the 2nd best coach in College Football (behind Nick Saban). But I'm still going to go against him today. Ohio State comes into this game off five straight wins. But the Buckeyes are an horrid 0-9 ATS since November 21, 2015 off five straight wins! Also, this Big 10 Championship team is unusual for the Big 10 Conference in that it has a poor defense. The Buckeyes have given up 25.6 ppg (a whopping 10.2 ppg more than Washington's defense gives up). Of course, over the decades, the best Big 10 Conference teams have generally been built around strong defenses and solid rushing attacks. So, in Bowl games, when you get a Big 10 team that is greatly outmatched on defense by its opponent, it's generally a good idea to fade that Big 10 team. Indeed, since 1980, Big 10 teams with a defense at least 6 points per game worse than their foe's defense have gone 8-21 ATS, including 0-5 ATS as a favorite, and also 0-6 ATS if the differential was minus 10.2 points (or worse) per game. Take the Huskies + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-01-19 | CS-Northridge v. San Diego State -15.5 | Top | 60-65 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
At 3 pm, our selection is on the San Diego State Aztecs minus the points over Cal State Northridge. The Aztecs threw in a clunker of a game on Saturday, as they were bombed, 82-61, at home by Brown, even though SDSU was favored by 11. But don't be surprised if Brian Dutcher's men bounce back in a big way on Tuesday in their last non-conference game before the start of the Mountain West season. Indeed, over the last 29 years, teams off double-digit losses as double-digit favorites have rebounded to cover the point spread 62% of the time in their next game, if they were matched up against a non-conference foe. Take San Diego State. NCAA Elite Info Winner! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-01-19 | Kentucky +7 v. Penn State | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats + the points over Penn State. Kentucky's defense gave up just 16.2 ppg this season. And that was against a largely-SEC Conference schedule. Anytime I can get an SEC Conference team, which has a great defense, as an underdog in a Bowl game, I'm going to strongly consider it. Indeed, SEC Conference dogs that didn't give up 16.4 ppg have cashed 76.1 percent since 1980 if they were getting 3 or more points. And if the line was 6 or more (which is, as of this writing, the number for this game, then our SEC defensive underdogs have gone 7-2 straight-up and a PERFECT 9-0 against the spread. Take Kentucky. |
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01-01-19 | LSU -7 v. Central Florida | Top | 40-32 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
At 1 pm, on New Year's Day, our selection is on the LSU Tigers minus the points over Central Florida. Last year, the Knights went undefeated, with a 13-0 record. And it is trying to duplicate that feat this afternoon. But it's not easy to go undefeated in back-to-back years. Since 1980, five teams have tried, and only one found success -- the Nebraska Cornhuskers in 1994-1995. The other four teams (Miami, 1992; Miami, 2002; USC, 2005; and Florida State, 2014) all got destroyed in their bowl games, and failed to cover the point spread by a staggering 22.5 points per game. That doesn't bode well for Central Florida today. And neither does the fact that LSU comes into this game off a loss to Texas A&M. And one of the last things one should do in the Bowls is bet against an SEC Conference team off a loss to end its season. These teams play with a chip on their shoulder, and have rolled to a 70-45 ATS record in the Bowl games, including 38-19 ATS when they owned a .625 (or better) SEC Conference record. Take Louisiana State to blow out Central Florida. NCAA High Roller. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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01-01-19 | Iowa +7.5 v. Mississippi State | Top | 27-22 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes + the points over Mississippi State. The Hawkeyes' defense gave up, on average, just 17.4 ppg this season. And one of the things I love to do in Bowl games is play on teams with very good defenses, in an underdog role. Since 1981, underdogs of 7+ points that didn't give up 20+ points per game have covered 59% of the time. And in match-ups between the Big 10 Conference and the SEC Conference, the Big 10 teams have gone 9-1 ATS since 1982 as underdogs of +4.5 or more points if they had a defense which didn't give up 20+ points per game. Take Iowa. |
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12-31-18 | Mavs v. Thunder -8 | Top | 102-122 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma City Thunder minus the points over Dallas. These two teams met last night in the Lone Star State, and the Mavericks upset OKC, 105-103, as 2.5-point underdogs. We'll lay the points with Billy Donovan's crew in this rematch, as the Thunder are 71-53 ATS when playing with revenge from an upset loss. And they've cashed 72% since 2010 when laying 6+ points in the regular season against a team off a SU/ATS win, if OKC lost earlier in the season to that opponent. Finally, the Thunder fall into 76-38 and 132-81 ATS revenge systems of mine. Take OKC. NBA High Roller Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-31-18 | Idaho State v. Eastern Washington -2.5 | Top | 55-65 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, on Monday afternoon, our selection is on the Eastern Washington Eagles minus the points over Idaho State. The Bengals upset their rival, Idaho, 72-55, on Saturday, and I look for a letdown today, as they're a poor 20-35 ATS off an upset win. Additionally, this game is cut from a similar cloth to a play we had on Sunday. Yesterday, we played on Middle Tennessee State, which started the season with 10 straight ATS defeats, and I wrote how that was tied for the 2nd-worst ATS start of any team over the past 29 years. Well, the Eagles have also been just as historically awful in their start to the 2018 campaign, as they're 0-10-1 ATS in their 11 lined games, thus far! But the Eagles' lack of point spread success has provided us with decent line value tonight, and we'll lay the points with them in this Big Sky Conference game vs. Idaho State, as I have a terrific 80-41 ATS system on the Eagles in this contest. Moreover, Eastern Washington has won the last three meetings in this series, and six of the last seven. And it's 26-13 ATS off a home loss to a conference foe, and 20-12 ATS as a favorite vs. foes off upset wins. Take the Eagles minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-31-18 | Missouri v. Oklahoma State +10 | Top | 33-38 | Win | 100 | 40 h 32 m | Show |
At 3:45 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Oklahoma State Cowboys + the points over Missouri. All things being equal, I'll look to take points in Bowl games. And especially at the higher price points. Indeed, favorites of more than 7 points are an awful, including 93-122-4 ATS when priced from -7.5 to -14 points. And, yes, it's true that Missouri played great down the stretch, with four straight wins, while Oklahoma State lost its finale to TCU, and five of its last seven, overall. But Bowl favorites off 4+ wins have cashed just 39% over the last 39 years vs. opponents off a straight-up loss. Finally, Missouri is a horrid 9-21 ATS vs. .500 (or better) foes, if Missouri is off a straight-up and ATS win, and its opponent is off a SU/ATS loss, including 0-8 ATS when favored by more than six points! And Okie State is 12-1 ATS off an upset loss when matched up against foes off a win! Take the Cowboys. Perfect 10 Club Play. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-31-18 | Pittsburgh +5 v. Stanford | Top | 13-14 | Win | 100 | 39 h 18 m | Show |
At 2 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Panthers + the points over Stanford. The Panthers come into this Sun Bowl game off back to back blowout losses. They fell, 24-3, to Miami in their final regular season game. And then they lost, 42-10, to Clemson in the ACC Championship game. But one of the things I love to do is in the post-season is play on teams off back to back blowout losses. For example, underdogs of more than 3 points off back to back defeats by 21+ points have gone 12-0 ATS. Moreover, underdogs that didn't score 14+ points in their final two games have also cashed 71% in the Bowls the past 39 years. Indeed, we just saw both of these two angles in play a couple days ago in the Independence Bowl when Duke smashed Temple, 56-27, as a 3.5-point underdog, after losing 35-6 to Clemson and 59-7 to Wake Forest in their final two games to end the season. Additionally, this Sun Bowl game in El Paso has long been good to the underdog. Since 1980, they've cashed 90% (18-2 ATS) when catching 3.5 or more points. Finally, Pittsburgh falls into several of my favorite Bowl systems, with records of 93-38, 119-61 and 24-7 ATS. Take the Panthers. Blowout of the Year! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-31-18 | Virginia Tech +6 v. Cincinnati | Top | 31-35 | Win | 100 | 37 h 32 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, on Monday, our selection is on the Virginia Tech Hokies + the points over Cincinnati. The Hokies had a mid-season swoon which saw them lose five of six games (and go 0-6 ATS). But they bounced back to defeat Virginia (34-31) and Marshall (41-20) to end their regular season. And both Virginia and Marshall won their Bowl games in Blowout fashion, by 28 and 18 points, respectively. It's true that the Bearcats went 10-2 this season. But against other Bowl teams they didn't step up their game, as they went 1-4 ATS in their five games vs. teams that qualified for a bowl game. And three of those five games were also played on Cincy's home field. In Cincy's two road games this season vs. teams playing in Bowl games, they went 0-2 SU and ATS, with losses to Central Florida (38-13) and Temple (24-17). And if we go back further, we find that the Bearcats have covered the point spread in just 11 of their last 37 games vs. foes with a .500 (or better) record. Finally, Cincy is 0-3 SU/ATS their last three Bowl games, and 0-5 ATS their last five Bowl games when priced between -2 and -8 points. Take the Hokies + the points. NCAA High Roller Winner! Good luck, as always, Al McMordie. |
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12-30-18 | Kings v. Lakers -1 | Top | 114-121 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers over the Sacramento Kings. The Lakers were in control of Thursday's game vs. Sacramento, as they led by 15 with under 7 minutes to play. But Bogdan Bogdanovic's 3-pointer at the buzzer earned the Kings the 117-116 victory. That was L.A.'s second straight loss, and both were to division rivals (they lost, 118-107, to the Clippers two games back). We'll play on the Lakers in the rematch, as L.A. is 67.8% ATS at home over the past 29 years when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season to a division rival, if priced from +2.5 to -6 points. And L.A. is also 18-4 ATS at home off back to back losses to division rivals, including 10-0 ATS when not favored by more than 4 points. Take Los Angeles. NBA High Roller Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-30-18 | Middle Tennessee +15 v. Rhode Island | Top | 60-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
At 5 pm, our selection is on the Middle Tennessee St. Blue Raiders + the points over Rhode Island. Admittedly, the Blue Raiders have been as bad as a team could be to start the season. They've yet to cover the point spread in any of their 10 lined games, which ranks as the second-worst ATS start (tied with four other schools) of any team to a season in the last 29 years (the worse was in 2007-08 when Austin Peay started with 13 straight ATS losses). But we'll grab the points with Middle Tennessee today, as College Basketball road underdogs (or PK) off back to back SU/ATS losses, and on a 5-game (or worse) ATS losing streak, have cashed 58% ATS since 1990 vs. foes that weren't off back to back SU/ATS losses. And Rhode Island has won just eight of 26 ATS vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS losses. Take the Blue Raiders. NCAA Road Warrior Winner! Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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12-30-18 | Bears v. Vikings -4 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 82 h 46 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings minus the points over Chicago. Chicago won the NFC Central, and owns a 12-3 record, while Minnesota is 8-6-1, and is fighting for the 6th (and final) NFC Playoff berth. It's true that the Bears would like to win this game, provided the 12-3 Rams would be upset by the 49ers, but that eventuality is unlikely to happen. Thus, Chicago will likely have to settle for a division title, and a Wild Card playoff game. Minnesota, on the other hand, desperately wants to win this game, as that is its primary pathway into the Playoffs. I love the Vikings to do just that, as NFL teams that have at least a 2-game (or worse) record than their opponent heading into the final week have cashed 61.2% since 1980 as favorites vs. opponents off a straight-up win. Moreover, Minnesota is a super 10-0-1 ATS its last 11 regular season games when priced from -3.5 to -13 points. Take the Vikings. NFL Division Game of the Year! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-30-18 | Raiders v. Chiefs -13.5 | Top | 3-35 | Win | 100 | 63 h 36 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Oakland. The Kansas City Chiefs have been the league's biggest surprise this season, and will likely be the AFC Conference's #1 seed. But they have not covered the point spread in any of their last six games (0-5-1 ATS). I expect that to change this Sunday afternoon, as NFL home teams with a win percentage of .727 (or better) have covered 73% over the past 39 years off back to back losses. Lay the points with the Chiefs. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-30-18 | Pistons +2 v. Magic | Top | 107-109 | Push | 0 | 2 h 38 m | Show |
At 3:35 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Pistons + the points over Orlando. The Magic upset Toronto in their last game. But off that upset win, we'll look for a letdown and fade Orlando, and take the points with Detroit, which was bombed, 125-88, by Indiana on Friday. Indeed, NBA road teams off a SU/ATS loss are 138-95 ATS in the regular season vs. .499 (or worse) foes off an upset win, if our road team isn't getting more than 6 points, including 45-26 ATS if our road team lost by 15 or more in its previous game. Take Detroit. NBA Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-30-18 | Falcons v. Bucs +1.5 | Top | 34-32 | Loss | -109 | 59 h 10 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers over the Atlanta Falcons. This matchup is between two teams that both had disappointing seasons. Tampa Bay is 5-10, with three straight losses coming into this game, while Atlanta is 6-9, though it's won its last two games. Since 1980, NFL teams have cashed just 38.1% in their final road game of the season, if they won and covered their two previous games, while their opponent was off back to back losses. Take Tampa Bay. |
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12-30-18 | Cowboys v. Giants -6 | Top | 36-35 | Loss | -109 | 59 h 10 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants minus the points over Dallas. The Cowboys have clinched the NFC East Division title, and are locked into the #4 seed, so this game is meaningless for them. Thus, the 6-10 Giants are favored by a healthy amount over the 9-6 Cowboys. Obviously, this type of situation occurs every season in the NFL where really good teams have little incentive to play their top players in the final week or two. And in the season's final two weeks, when teams with a win percentage at least .250 percentage points worse than their opponent's, are favored by more than three points, then our favored team has covered 70.5% of the time over the past 39 years. Take the Giants. |
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12-29-18 | Portland v. CS-Fullerton -9 | Top | 64-79 | Win | 100 | 16 h 12 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Fullerton State Titans minus the points over Portland. The Pilots come into this game off a 54-39 blowout of Florida A&M. But that game was at home. On the road this season, the Pilots haven't had much success, as they're 1-3 SU/ATS thus far. Even worse: Portland's covered just three of 20 road games as underdogs of six (or more) points, if they won their previous game by eight (or more) points. Tonight, the Titans will be looking to snap a 4-game SU/ATS slide. And since 1990, they've cashed 70.3% as favorites off back to back SU/ATS losses. Take Fullerton minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-29-18 | Notre Dame +14 v. Clemson | Top | 3-30 | Loss | -126 | 57 h 17 m | Show |
At 4 pm, on Saturday, December 29, our selection is on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish + the points over Clemson. This is a match-up of two undefeated teams, as Notre Dame is 12-0, while Clemson is 13-0. And I will generally take the underdog in match-ups between two undefeated teams, whether in the regular season, or the post-season. Indeed, since 1980, the underdog has covered 68% of the time when getting more than 6 points, if both teams had a record of 5-0 or better. And in Bowl games, such teams are a perfect 5-0 — and not just against the point spread. But they’re also 5-0 straight-up, even though the average point spread in those five games has been 8.4 points. That bodes very well for Notre Dame. As does the fact that undefeated teams (like Clemson), with a record of 5-0 or better, and off a point spread win, have covered just 42% of the time since 1980 when favored by more than 6 points vs. .666 (or better) opponents. Take the points with the Irish. Perfect 10 Club. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-29-18 | Kentucky v. Louisville +3 | Top | 71-58 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
At 2 pm, our selection is on the Louisville Cardinals + the points over Kentucky. The Wildcats come into this Bluegrass State rivalry game off a huge upset win over then-No. 9-ranked North Carolina. Kentucky was a 2.5-point home underdog in that contest, and upset the Tar Heels, 80-72. Louisville, meanwhile, enters off back to back wins, though it failed to cover the 23-point spread in its last game, a 14-point home win over Robert Morris. I look for Kentucky to have a letdown off its upset win this afternoon, as .818 (or better) road teams off upset wins have covered just 81 of 211 games vs. .500 (or better) home teams off back to back wins, including 0-10 ATS if our home team failed to cover the spread by more than 6 points in its previous game. Take Louisville. |
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12-29-18 | Arkansas State v. Nevada +1.5 | Top | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 55 h 33 m | Show |
At 1:15 pm, our selection is on the Nevada Wolf Pack over Arkansas St. The Red Wolves went 8-4 this season, including 5-3 ATS in Sun Belt Conference play, while Nevada went 5-3 in the Mountain West Conference, and 7-5 overall. Nevada did lose its last game, 34-29, as a 14-point favorite at UNLV. But Bowl teams have cashed 80% over the last 15 years off an upset loss as a favorite of more than 8 points. Even worse for Arkansas State: Sun Belt teams have gone 20-52 ATS in non-conference games, if they weren't a losing team and weren't getting more than a point. Finally, Nevada falls into my very best Bowl system, which is 52-11 ATS, as well as 74-27 and 53-21 ATS Bowl angles. Take Nevada. NCAA Game of the Year! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-29-18 | South Carolina v. Virginia +5.5 | Top | 0-28 | Win | 100 | 53 h 16 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers + the points over South Carolina. The Cavaliers come into this bowl game off back to back losses. Certainly, losing back to back games to end the regular season is not ideal. But not all losing streaks are equal. And, here, both of those defeats were on the road. And losing two road games is not as problematic as, say, losing two home games. Indeed, underdogs off back to back road losses are a super 73% ATS in the post-season since 1980, including 81% vs. foes off a straight-up win. Take Virginia + the points. NCAA High Roller Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-29-18 | Butler v. Florida -4 | Top | 43-77 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Florida Gators minus the points over Butler. The Gators and Bulldogs met in the Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament in the Bahamas over the Thanksgiving holiday, and Butler won, 61-54, in that tourney game. We'll take Florida in the re-match, as this will just be Butler's 2nd true road game of the season. And the Bulldogs were blown out in their first road game, 64-52, as a 3.5-point favorite at St. Louis. Over the last two seasons, Butler's an awful 2-9 ATS on the road, including 0-8 ATS against .636 (or better) clubs. Take Florida. |
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12-28-18 | Iowa State v. Washington State -2.5 | Top | 26-28 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 54 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Washington State Cougars minus the points over Iowa State. This season, Mike Leach's Cougars were the #1 College Football team against the point spread. Washington State finished the season with a 10-2 ATS record, and its only point spread defeats were its eighth game of the season vs. California, and its final game of the season vs. Washington. In contrast, Iowa State was a pedestrian 6-6 ATS, and it ended the season with four straight ATS losses. Since 1991, teams off a point spread loss, but with a point spread win percentage of .666 (or better), have cashed 70.7% in the post-season vs. foes that didn't have a winning record against the spread. And Bowl teams that lost their previous four games to the point spread were under .500 ATS in their Bowl games, including 6-15-1 ATS in "win situation" games with point spreads ranging from +3 to -3. Take Washington State. Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-28-18 | Austin Peay v. Arkansas -12.5 | Top | 65-76 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Arkansas Razorbacks minus the points over Austin Peay. The Governors come into this game, in Fayetteville, off six straight wins, and three straight covers, while Arkansas has dropped its last four games to the point spread. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on red-hot Austin Peay and against the ice-cold Razorbacks. But consider that SEC Conference home teams, off four (or more) ATS defeats, have covered 71% over the last 29 seasons vs. foes off ATS wins in their last three games. Additionally, the Razorbacks fall into an 83-34 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off a point spread defeat. Take Arkansas to blow out Austin Peay. NCAA Roadkill Winner! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-28-18 | Syracuse v. West Virginia +3 | Top | 34-18 | Loss | -114 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
At 5:15 pm, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers + the points over Syracuse. Certainly, there are a lot of negatives on the side of West Virginia in this ballgame. The most obvious one, of course, is the absence of star quarterback Will Grier, who has chosen to bypass this game so he can prepare for the NFL draft. And then there is West Virginia's awful history in the Bowl games. Since 1982, it's 6-21 ATS, including 1-11 ATS vs. ACC Conference foes. And, finally, Big 12 Conference favorites are a poor 39-58 ATS as favorites in Bowl Games. With all that said, I still favor the Mountaineers. First, the fact that Grier won't play has been factored into this point spread, as WVU was favored by SEVEN points when the opening line was published, but it is now an UNDERDOG.  And, second, teams like Syracuse, that come into their Bowl game off a 21-point (or greater) upset win, have covered just 23% since 2000 when they weren’t getting 3 or more points. Finally, the Mountaineers will have had several weeks to integrate their new quarterback, Jack Allison, into the offense. And it's not as if he will be going against a great pass defense which could take advantage of his inexperience. Syracuse ranked just 74th of 130 College Football teams this season in defensive yards per pass attempt. Take West Virginia + the points. NCAA High Roller Winner! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-27-18 | 76ers +5 v. Jazz | Top | 114-97 | Win | 100 | 16 h 1 m | Show |
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers + the points over Utah. The 76ers lost a heartbreaker, in overtime, on Christmas day, at Boston. But I love them to bounce back in this underdog role, on Thursday. Over the last 3 seasons, Philadelphia is 41-16-2 ATS off a road defeat, including 30-9-2 ATS as an underdog (and 12-1 ATS when priced from +2.5 to +6 points). Meanwhile, Utah is a poor 5-12 ATS off a win over a division rival, including 0-5 ATS vs. .585 (or better) foes. Take the 76ers + the points. NBA Underdog Shocker! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-27-18 | Vanderbilt v. Baylor +4 | Top | 38-45 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Baylor Bears + the points over Vanderbilt. Last season, the Commodores won just five games, and failed to make a bowl game. So, when it defeated its arch-rival, Tennessee, in its final regular season game, that was a huge win for this program, as it was its sixth win, overall, and enabled the Commodores to play in the Post-Season. But I’m not a fan of playing on favorites in Bowl games that missed out completely on the post-season the previous year because of a losing record. Generally speaking, a lot of these teams are just happy to be in a bowl game, so I prefer to not lay points with them. And such teams have covered just 40% of the time as a Bowl favorite over the last 20 years. Vanderbilt is also a poor 2-6 ATS in non-conference games after playing their rival, Tennessee. Finally, Baylor is a solid 19-9 ATS its last 28 as an underdog, including a perfect 6-0 ATS when priced from +3 to +7 points. Take the Bears. NCAA Elite Info Winner! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-27-18 | Duke +3.5 v. Temple | Top | 56-27 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
At 1:30 pm, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils + the points over Temple. These two teams played almost mirror-opposite games to end their regular seasons. The Owls won 57-7 on the road at Connecticut, while Duke was upset at home, 59-7, as a 9.5-point favorite by Wake Forest. And Duke's loss continued a season-long trend which saw it cover the point spread as an underdog (5-0 ATS), but lose as a favorite (1-6 ATS). And if we go back further, we find that Duke is 27-9 its last 36 as an underdog, including 9-0 when playing with rest, and 7-0 ATS their last seven. That bodes well for the Blue Devils this afternoon, as they've been installed as an underdog in today's game. Even better: since 1990, teams off back to back losses, where they didn't score 44+ points combined in those two games, have gone 42-17 ATS in the post-season, including 7-0 ATS the past 3 years, if they weren't favored by more than a point, and their opponent was off a straight-up win. Take the Blue Devils + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-26-18 | Pelicans +3 v. Mavs | Top | 119-122 | Push | 0 | 5 h 30 m | Show |
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans + the points over the Dallas Mavericks. Through their first 32 games, the Mavericks are 13-3 (.812) at home, and 2-14 (.125) on the road. Their .687 win percentage differential between home and road is the largest such differential since 1990 for any team through its first 31+ games. However, this differential has caused this point spread tonight to be a bit inflated, by my numbers. Dallas has lost its last six games straight-up, and is also 0-2 ATS its last two home games. The Pelicans won the previous meeting this season by 26 points, and that game ranked as the Pelicans' best win of the season, and Dallas' worst defeat. New Orleans also won the last two meetings last season by 10 and 17 points. Let's take the better team in an underdog role this evening. Take New Orleans + the points. NBA High Roller Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-26-18 | Cavs +10.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 87-95 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers + the points over Memphis. The Grizzlies nsapped a 5-game slide with an upset win over the Lakers on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers come into tonight's game off three straight double-digit defeats. And they've been installed as a double-digit road underdog. We'll grab the points with Cleveland, as rested double-digit dogs off 3 straight double-digit losses have covered 68.1% since 1990 vs. foes off a SU/ATS win. Take Cleveland tonight. NBA Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-25-18 | Indiana State +12 v. TCU | Top | 69-83 | Loss | -109 | 17 h 47 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Indiana State Sycamores + the points over TCU. The Sycamores and Horned Frogs met just nine days ago in Fort Worth, and the Frogs blew out Indiana State, 90-70. Let's grab the points with Indiana State in this rematch, as the Sycamores are a terrific 37-19-1 ATS away from home when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season, including 19-6 ATS if they lost that previous meeting by more than 10 points. Take the Sycamores. NCAA Non-Conference Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-25-18 | Thunder +1 v. Rockets | Top | 109-113 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma City Thunder over Houston. Chris Paul is out with an injury, and the Rockets have not stepped up with him on the sidelines this season. Paul has missed six games, and the Rockets are a miserable 1-5 SU/ATS without him on the court. And Houston was favored in four of those six games. That doesn't bode well for Houston this afternoon. And neither does the fact that OKC was upset at home by Minnesota in its previous game, as OKC is a super 68-34-1 ATS on the road in the regular season off an upset defeat at home. Take the Thunder. NBA Elite Info. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-25-18 | Colorado -14 v. Charlotte | Top | 68-53 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Buffaloes minus the points over Charlotte. The Buffaloes come into this game off back to back upset losses to Indiana State and Hawaii and three straight point spread losses, overall. But Colorado is 22-8-2 off an upset defeat, and 56-31-2 ATS off back to back losses. And the Buffaloes are 17-4 ATS after losing ATS in each of their three previous games, including 13-1 ATS if they also lost their two previous games straight-up. Lay the points with Tad Boyle's men. NCAA Hoops High Roller Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-24-18 | Broncos v. Raiders +3 | Top | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 17 h 23 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Raiders + the points over Denver. Last week, the Raiders were blown out, 30-16, by the Cincinnati Bengals. But off that 14-point loss, we'll step in and take the points with Oakland as a home underdog. Indeed, I have several very good systems that back the Raiders tonight. First, consider that since 1980, home underdogs have gone 177-130-11 ATS at Game 14 forward, if they were off a SU/ATS loss. And, second, teams playing their last home game of the season have gone 70.7 percent ATS since 1980, if they owned a W/L record less than .400 and their opponent's W/L percentage was less than .429. Take the Raiders tonight + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-23-18 | Clippers v. Warriors -10.5 | Top | 127-129 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over the LA Clippers. Since Steve Kerr took over as head coach in 2014, the Warriors have been the league's dominant team. And that means they don't lose very often. This season, Golden State is having another great campaign, and it is 22-11 through its first 33 games. One of its 11 defeats, though, came vs. tonight's opponent, the Los Angeles Clippers. However, that game was back in November when Steph Curry was sidelined with an injury. He's back on the court now, and that should spell t-r-o-u-b-l-e for the Clippers. Indeed, the Warriors are a poor 43-65 without Curry in the lineup, but are one of the historically-best teams with him on the floor. Golden State is a powerful 72% ATS when playing with revenge, and favored by 10 or less points in the regular season under coach Kerr. Take the Warriors to blow out the Clippers tonight. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-23-18 | Chiefs v. Seahawks +2.5 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 27 h 48 m | Show |
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Seahawks + the points over Kansas City. The Seahawks were upset last week by the 49ers in San Francisco. That dropped Seattle's record to 8-6, so it needs to win to remain in the Wild Card hunt. Seattle's been installed as an underdog vs. the AFC's top-seeded Chiefs. But I love Seattle to pull the upset, as NFL home dogs (or PK) off an upset loss, with a win percentage between .501 and .667. have cashed 70.9% over the past 34 years vs. .687 (or better) opposition. Moreover, the Seahawks have long had one of the best home fields in the league. And Seattle's been especially strong toward the end of the season, as it is 70-39-7 ATS at home in their final three regular season home games (or the post-season) since 1983, including 24-7-1 ATS as a home underdog. Take the Seahawks. Sunday Night Football Game of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-23-18 | Drake v. San Diego -5 | Top | 110-103 | Loss | -109 | 2 h 59 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Toreros minus the points over Drake. This game is the Championship game of the Las Vegas Classic tonight, and matches up two teams playing very good basketball. The Toreros are 10-3 straight-up, and check into tonight's game off back to back SU/ATS wins over Northern Colorado and Washington State. Meanwhile, Drake is 9-2 SU and 9-1 ATS, including point spread wins in each of its last nine games. Unfortunately, though, for the Bulldogs, NCAA basketball teams struggle mightily away from home as underdogs of +4 or more points, after covering the point spread in 8 (or more) straight games, as they've cashed just 34.4% of the time since 1990. Take San Diego minus the points. NCAA Hoops XMAS Holiday Tourney Game of the Year! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-23-18 | Hornets v. Celtics -7 | Top | 103-119 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Charlotte. After winning and covering eight straight games, the Celtics have now lost their last three -- both SU and ATS. And they had their worst home defensive performance of the season in their last game, as they allowed Milwaukee to shoot 51.2% from the floor, and score 120 points. Since 1990, the Celtics have cashed 69.7% at home when favored by 3+ points, if they lost SU/ATS at home in their previous game, and their opponent was off a win. Take Boston minus the points. |
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12-23-18 | Pelicans -1.5 v. Kings | Top | 117-122 | Loss | -109 | 2 h 49 m | Show |
At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans minus the points over Sacramento. These two teams met earlier this year, and the Pels won by 20 points, 149-129. That 149-point total has been the most points scored by a team this season (equaled by the Warriors and Wizards). And the 278 points ranks as the highest-scoring non-overtime game this season. The Pelicans come into this game off 3 straight defeats, including a 112-104 setback against the Lakers on Friday. Meanwhile, Sacramento enters off a SU/ATS win over the Memphis Grizzlies. I love New Orleans to once again blow out Sacramento this evening, as the Kings are an awful 11-32 ATS at home off a SU/ATS win, if they are playing an opponent off a SU/ATS loss. Take the Pelicans minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-23-18 | Steelers v. Saints -5.5 | Top | 28-31 | Loss | -108 | 96 h 3 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints minus the points over Pittsburgh. We had a big play on the Steelers last week over New England, and were rewarded with a 17-10 upset win. Meanwhile, the Saints eked out a Monday Night Football win at Carolina, 12-9. It's true that New Orleans' offense has been held in check in two of their last three games, as New Orleans also scored just 10 points at Dallas back on November 29. But it's also true that New Orleans' last three games were all on the road. At home this season, in six games, New Orleans has scored 228 points for an average of 38 ppg! And the Saints have won and covered their last four home games. Meanwhile, the Steelers haven't covered any of their last three road games, and even lost outright their last two -- as an 11-point favorite vs. Oakland, and as a 3-point favorite vs. Denver. It's true that Ben Roethlisberger is a very good quarterback. And he has some great weapons in Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster. But Pittsburgh's offense isn't in the same league as the Saints' offense. And Steelers coach Mike Tomlin can't hold a candle on the offensive side of the football to the Saints' Sean Payton. Indeed, Payton may be the best offensive mind in the game. And he's at his best when matched up against other teams whose offenses score more than 24 points per game. Since 2008, with Payton as head coach, the Saints are a staggering 40-15 straight-up and 42-12-1 ATS vs. foes that score more than 24 points per game. This will be another Saints Blowout. Lay the points. NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-23-18 | Bills v. Patriots -13.5 | Top | 12-24 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over Buffalo. The Bills have been awful over the years in their final road game of the season. Since 1980, they've gone 12-24-2 ATS, including 5-16-1 ATS as an underdog. That doesn't bode well for them this afternoon. And neither does the fact that the Patriots have lost back to back games. Since November 2002, the Patriots are 9-0 straight-up, and 8-1 ATS off back to back losses (with their only ATS defeat being by just 2.5 points). Take New England. |
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12-23-18 | Jaguars +4 v. Dolphins | Top | 17-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over Miami. We played against Miami last week, and easily got the $$$ with the Vikings, who blew out the Dolphins, 41-17. We will once again fade the Dolphins, as they're a horrid 35-65-3 ATS at home when not getting more than 3 points, including just 3-19 ATS when they're off a loss, and favored vs. non-division foes. Take Jacksonville. |
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12-22-18 | Raptors v. 76ers -4.5 | Top | 101-126 | Win | 100 | 16 h 36 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over Toronto. These two teams have met twice already this season, and the Raptors came away with wins in both games. Toronto won 129-112 on October 30, and then defeated Philly 113-102 on December 5. But BOTH of those games were played in Toronto. This will be the first meeting between these two Atlantic Division rivals in Philadelphia. And the 76ers have been dominant at home. Indeed, since January 1, the Sixers are 41-7 straight-up, and 32-16 ATS at home. Philadelphia will play this game with much more rest than Toronto, which had to play last night vs. Cleveland. And double-revenging NBA home teams, that lost the season's first two meetings on the road, have cashed 69% over the last 25+ years if they were playing with at least two days' of rest, while their opponent was unrested. Take Philadelphia to blow out Toronto. NBA Division Game of the Year! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-22-18 | Texas State v. Arkansas -10.5 | Top | 70-73 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
At 2 pm, our selection is on the Arkansas Razorbacks minus the points over Texas State. The Razorbacks were upset here, at home, by Georgia Tech, on Wednesday. We'll take Arkansas to bounce back this afternoon, as it's 9-0 ATS at home off a loss as a favorite (or PK) in its previous game, if it's now playing a non-conference opponent. And the Razorbacks also fall into 60-19 and 83-49 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off upset defeats. Lay the points with Mike Anderson's men. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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