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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-19-18 | Thunder v. Kings +2.5 | Top | 113-117 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings + the points over the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Kings have outperformed expectations in this young season, with a .500 record through the first month. One of their early wins was an 11-point upset win at Oklahoma City in the first week of the season. Some might look for the Thunder to avenge that defeat tonight, but Oklahoma City has been awful in that role of late, as it's 4-17 ATS its last 21 when playing with revenge from an upset loss earlier in the season, including 1-10 ATS vs. .500 (or better) foes! And, yes, it's true that Sacramento is off back to back SU/ATS losses, while OKC is off 3 SU/ATS wins. But home underdogs off back-to-back SU/ATS losses have gone 110-66 ATS vs. non-division foes off 3 ATS wins. Take Sacramento. NBA Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-19-18 | Nuggets +5.5 v. Bucks | Top | 98-104 | Loss | -106 | 15 h 0 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets + the points over Milwaukee. The Nuggs lost at home, 121-111, to Milwaukee eight days ago. But that loss has triggered a 125-73 ATS revenge system of mine. Even better for Denver: it lost its previous game, 125-115, at New Orleans. But Denver is a solid 22-7 ATS off a loss when not favored by more than three points (including a perfect 10-0 ATS vs. .583 (or better) foes. Take Denver. Perfect 10 Club Play. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-19-18 | Spurs v. Pelicans -7.5 | Top | 126-140 | Win | 100 | 15 h 59 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans minus the points over San Antonio. The Spurs have had more success than any franchise in our four major sports, but they've had NO SUCCESS in the Crescent City over the last 8 years. Certainly, the one game that most basketball fans would remember came on the last day of the 2014-15 season. The Spurs needed to win in New Orleans to secure the #2 seed in the playoffs. But they lost as a 5.5-point favorite, and that single defeat knocked them all the way down to the #6 seed (and they they lost to the Clippers in the first round). San Antonio is now 1-14 ATS in their last 15 meetings here in New Orleans, including the last eight in a row. And they've failed to cover the point spread by an average of 9.63 points per game. We played on San Antonio last night vs. Golden State, and the Spurs rewarded us by winning an emotional game vs. the defending NBA Champs. But NBA underdogs are a poor 21-33 ATS after defeating Golden State, including 0-9 ATS when priced from +6 to +7.5 points, and 3-12 ATS on the road if its opponent was playing with revenge. With the Pelicans indeed playing with revenge from a 14-point loss suffered in San Antonio earlier this month, we'll lay the points with Anthony Davis & Co. Take New Orleans. NBA Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-18-18 | Warriors v. Spurs -2.5 | Top | 92-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Golden State. Since the 1997-98 season, the Spurs have been the best franchise. And not just in the NBA, but in all of the major North American sports. And of all the great statistics to illustrate just how good this franchise has been, this one is my favorite. Since the 1997-98 season, the Spurs have had a record under .500 for a total of 48 days. The next closest NBA team: the Houston Rockets, who have been under .500 for 884 days! San Antonio will try to not go under .500 for the first time this season, as it enters this evening's game with a 7-7 record. The Spurs have lost their last three games. But I love them to bounce back at home tonight vs. a Warriors club which had to play last night in Dallas. San Antonio will be much more well-rested, as it has had the last 2 days off. The Spurs are 87-56-2 ATS vs. unrested foes. And they're 146-118-1 ATS when they had the previous 2 days off. Finally, the Spurs are 45-27-1 ATS in the regular season off 3+ losses, Take San Antone. NBA Elite INfo Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-18-18 | VMI v. Kentucky -33 | Top | 82-92 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
At 6 pm, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats minus the points over VMI. The Keydets are 3-1 on the season after defeating South Carolina Upstate, 78-72, on Tuesday. But the Wildcats are a Top 10-ranked team, so VMI will be clearly outclassed this evening. Indeed, VMI's lone loss this year was to ACC Conference member, Pittsburgh (94-55), while its three wins were vs. Goucher, Washington (MD), and South Carolina Upstate. It's tough even for winning teams to step up in class, as evidenced by the fact that .630 (or better) teams are a poor 41-78 ATS as road underdogs of more than 23 points. Kentucky comes into this game off a blowout win over another outclassed foe, North Dakota. Kentucky was favored by 26, and won by 38. And the Wildcats are 10-3 ATS at home their last 13 when favored by 26+ points. Take Kentucky to blow out VMI. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-18-18 | Eagles +9.5 v. Saints | Top | 7-48 | Loss | -125 | 84 h 45 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles + the points over New Orleans. The Eagles were upset by the Dallas Cowboys last Sunday night, as a 7.5-point favorite. We had a play on the Cowboys, so that result didn't surprise us. But off that upset loss, we'll look for Philly to bounce back on the road, at New Orleans, on Sunday. Indeed, defending Super Bowl champions have cashed 82.6% over the last 39 seasons on the road off a loss, if they weren't favored by 2+ points, and their opponent was off a point spread win! Even better: if our defending Champs were off an UPSET loss, then our 82.6% ATS angle zooms to a perfect 16-0-2 ATS. Additionally, the Eagles fall into 154-68, 224-118 and 101-45 ATS systems of mine. Take Philly. 5* NFL Game of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-18-18 | Raiders +6 v. Cardinals | Top | 23-21 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Raiders + the points over Arizona. This match-up is obviously one between two very bad teams. Oakland is 1-8, after dropping a 20-6 home game to the Chargers, while Arizona is 2-7 following its 26-14 loss at Kansas City. Certainly, I won't be able to extol any of Oakland's virtues (because there are none). Instead, I will just submit that it's dangerous in the NFL to lay points with bad teams, like Arizona. And that's even if their opponent is equally bad, or worse (as is Oakland). Indeed, since 1980, at Game 8 forward, NFL home favorites of more than 2 points, with a .225 (or worse) win percentage, have covered just 36 of 99 games, including just four of 18 games if their opponent had less than two wins on the season. The Raiders also fall into a 66-37 and 106-55 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams on 5-game (or worse) losing streaks, as well as 65-29 and 115-68 ATS angles that play on certain teams that failed to score 10 points in their previous game. Take Oakland. NFL Road Warrior Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-18-18 | Grizzlies v. Wolves -4.5 | Top | 100-87 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
At 3:35 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Timberwolves minus the points over Memphis. Last night, Jimmy Butler showed why he is such a great player. The 76ers went to him for game-winning buckets, both at the end of regulation (he missed), and at the end of the overtime session (he converted). The 76ers were missing a player with his skill set to whom they could turn for end-of-game offense, so his acquisition has completely transformed their team. But just because the Timberwolves divested themselves of Butler's talent, it would a mistake to think that Minnesota will necessarily win less games. Chemistry is very important for an NBA roster, and Butler's personality didn't mesh with Minnesota's other star talent. Since trading him, the T-Wolves have gone 3-0 SU/ATS, and I look for them to stretch their win streak to 4 games this afternoon. Even though Minnesota hasn't been above .500 all season, they've actually played great at home, at the Target Center, where they're 7-1 straight-up and 6-2 ATS (compared to 0-8 SU and 2-6 ATS on the road). Lay the points with Minnesota. NBA High Roller Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-18-18 | Cowboys v. Falcons -3 | Top | 22-19 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons minus the points over Dallas. Last week, the Cowboys upset the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles, 27-20, as a 7.5-point underdog. But off that upset win, let’s fade the Cowboys in Atlanta. For technical support, consider that teams that pulled upset wins over the defending Super Bowl Champs, and covered the point spread by 14 or more points in that upset win, have gone 6-18 ATS in their next game if installed as a road underdog. Also, last week, the Falcons were upset as a 5.5-point road favorite by the Cleveland Browns. But home teams, off upset road losses, have gone 71-43 ATS since 1980 vs. opponents off upset wins. Take the Falcons minus the points. |
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11-18-18 | Bucs +3 v. Giants | Top | 35-38 | Push | 0 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Bucs + the points over the New York Giants. Tampa Bay scored just three points last week, notwithstanding the fact it went up and down the field, and amassed 501 yards of offense. Turnovers, of course, were the primary culprit. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick had three turnovers, which marred a 29-of-41 passing day (for 406 yards). For the season, Tampa ranks dead last in turnovers, at 25. The good news, though, for this game is that the Giants rank as the 8th worst team in forcing turnovers, as they've only taken away the ball nine times. Last week, New York upset the San Francisco 49ers, 27-23, as a 3-point underdog. But the Giants are a miserable 1-8 ATS off a point spread win. Take Tampa Bay. |
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11-18-18 | Titans v. Colts -1.5 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts minus the points over Tennessee. The Titans have won their last two games -- both as underdogs -- against the Cowboys and Patriots. And they've covered their last three in a row (each in the underdog role). Tennessee is now 5-4 on the season, and will travel to Indianapolis today to take on its AFC South division rival. The Colts also have been playing well of late, as they're 3-0 SU and 2-0-1 ATS in their last three games, with the primary difference being that they were installed as a favorite (rather than an underdog) in each game. The Colts are 9-1 SU and 7-2-1 ATS their last 10 as a favorite. And they're 21-2 SU and 16-5-2 ATS when favored over a division rival. Finally, NFL road teams are a miserable 25.7% ATS over the last 39 years after covering the point spread as underdogs in each of their last three games. Take Indianapolis. AFC South Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-17-18 | UNLV v. Hawaii -5.5 | Top | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 31 h 5 m | Show |
At 11 pm, our selection is on the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors minus the points over UNLV. The Runnin' Rebels upset San Diego St., 27-24, as a 24-point underdog last Saturday. That was the 2nd biggest upset on the road this season. Only Oregon State's 41-34 upset at Colorado, as a 26.5-point underdog, was a bigger upset. Not surprisingly, as a majority of teams do after pulling such upsets on the road, Oregon State failed to cover the spread the next week vs. USC. Indeed, since 1980, teams off a road upset as an underdog greater than 19 points, have covered just 35% their following game, including a paltry 18% if its opponent was off a point spread loss. And Hawaii is off an ATS loss, as it fell by 39 points to the Utah St. Aggies two weeks ago, as a 17.5-point underdog. The fact that Hawaii will play with an extra week of rest certainly won't hurt (Hawaii's cashed 64% at home since 1985 when playing with rest vs. an unrested opponent). Even worse for UNLV: it's just 2-14 ATS off a road win over a conference foe. Take Hawaii. Mountain West Conf. Game of the Year! Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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11-17-18 | Georgia Southern v. Coastal Carolina +7.5 | Top | 41-17 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
At 5 pm, our selection is on the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers + the points over Georgia Southern. Coastal Carolina comes into this game -- its final home game of the season -- off back-to-back home losses. But home dogs have cashed 57% since 1980 in their final home game of the season off back to back home defeats. Moreover, the Chanticleers will be playing, perhaps, their biggest home game ever in their school history this afternoon. With a win, Coastal Carolina will become bowl-eligible, and will qualify to play in a Post-season Bowl game for the very first time. With that huge motivation on its side, we'll grab the points with the Chanticleers today. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-17-18 | Drexel v. La Salle -10.5 | Top | 89-84 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
At 4 pm, our selection is on the La Salle Explorers minus the points over Drexel. The Dragons may be without point guard Kurk Lee (14.5 ppg) today. He sat out Drexel's 118-41 win over tiny Bryn Athyn (the smallest school in Division III) on Wednesday, but I expect him to play. Regardless, we will go against Drexel in this cross-town rivalry contest. Last year, Drexel went into La Salle, and upset the Explorers, 72-70, as a 12-point underdog. Today's game is also at La Salle, and I love the Explorers to avenge last season's upset loss. Indeed, over the last 29 seasons, double-digit home favorites have cashed 81% when playing with revenge from a loss as a double-digit favorite vs. a non-conference foe. Take La Salle. NCAA Payback Payday! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-17-18 | Syracuse +10.5 v. Notre Dame | Top | 3-36 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
At 2:30 pm, our selection is on the Syracuse Orange + the points over Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish are 10-0, and ranked #3 in the country. And they enter this game off a 29-point win over Florida State last weekend. But College Football favorites of 15 points or less (or PK) have covered just 31.3% away from home since 1980 in the regular season, if they were on an 8-game (or better) win streak, and off a point spread win. Take Syracuse. |
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11-17-18 | Ohio State v. Maryland +14.5 | Top | 52-51 | Win | 100 | 18 h 49 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Maryland Terrapins + the points over Ohio State. The Buckeyes have been a big money-burner in Las Vegas this season, as they're 4-6 ATS, including 2-5 ATS vs. Big 10 Conference foes. I don't expect things to change on this Saturday, as they will have to play a Maryland club desperate to earn a win in one of its final two games to qualify for a Bowl game. The Terrapins certainly had hoped to secure their 6th victory of the season in one of their two previous games, but they lost at home to Michigan State, and then last week at Indiana. The good news, though, for Maryland is that it's 11-2 ATS since 1980 in its last home game of the season, if it's off a SU/ATS loss, and facing a conference opponent (and 7-0 ATS if it's off back to back SU/ATS losses). Meanwhile, Ohio State has been awful vs. Big 10 Conference foes off back to back losses. Since 2006, it has gone 5-15 ATS, including 0-7 ATS when priced from -10.5 to -24 points. Finally, the Buckeyes fall into a negative 40-91 ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams off SU/ATS wins. Take Maryland. Big 10 Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-17-18 | Pittsburgh -6 v. Wake Forest | Top | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Pitt Panthers minus the points over Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons pulled off a monstrous upset last week, when they went into Raleigh, and upended the NC State Wolfpack, 27-23, as a 19-point dog. Unfortunately, they're a horrid 1-12 ATS at home in competitively-priced games with a line less than 8 points, if they're off an upset win. And, generally speaking, teams off upset wins as underdogs of +19 or more points don't do very well in their next game. And especially not at home, where they've cashed just 30 of 79. I look for Pitt to cover its sixth straight game today. Lay the points. |
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11-17-18 | Middle Tennessee State v. Kentucky -16 | Top | 23-34 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats minus the points over Middle Tennessee State. The Wildcats fall into my favorite College Football system, which is 89-39 ATS since 1980. And that angle plays on certain NCAA teams off blowout losses (Kentucky lost, 24-7, at Tennessee last Saturday). That was the 2nd straight blowout loss suffered by Kentucky (it lost, 34-17, to Georgia two weeks ago), which has seen its record fall to 7-3. But I love the 'Cats to bounce back vs. Middle Tennessee, as SEC Conference teams have covered 68.1% vs. non-conference foes, if our SEC team was off an upset conference loss, and also lost SU/ATS two games back. Even worse for the Blue Raiders: they've done very poorly vs. SEC Conference teams. This season, Middle Tenn was blown out by Vanderbilt (35-7) and Georgia (49-7); last year, it also got drubbed by Vandy (28-6). Dating back to 2009, it's 1-13 straight up vs. SEC Conference foes, and 4-10 ATS. Take Kentucky. Non-Conference Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-16-18 | Boise State v. New Mexico +20 | Top | 45-14 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico Lobos + the points over Boise State. The Broncos come into this game on a five-game win streak after upsetting Fresno State last week. Meanwhile, New Mexico has dropped its last five games. The knee-jerk reaction might be to go against the cold Lobos, and bet on the hot Broncos, including a 42-24 defeat, as a 14-point underdog, at Air Force last Saturday. But since 1980, home teams on 5-game (or worse) losing streaks have covered 67% vs. foes on 5-game (or better) win streaks, if our home team was also off an ATS loss, while our road team was off an ATS win. Take New Mexico. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-16-18 | Memphis v. SMU +7.5 | Top | 28-18 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the SMU Mustangs + the points over Memphis. SMU enters this game off back to back double-digit wins over Houston (45-31) and Connecticut (62-50). Off those two high-scoring wins, we'll grab the points with SMU, as it falls into a system of mine which has cashed 63% since 1980. What we want to do is play on any home underdog off back to back wins, if it scored 90+ points combined over its two previous games. SMU needs just one more win to achieve eligibility to play in a post-season Bowl game. With this being its final home game of the season, I expect a supreme effort tonight. Take the Mustangs + the points. NCAA Football Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-16-18 | The Citadel v. Texas -22 | Top | 69-97 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Texas Longhorns minus the points over The Citadel. The Bulldogs are 2-1 following a 137-60 blowout of Florida Christian College, while the Longhorns are 3-0 after their 65-55 win over Louisiana Monroe, as a 19-point favorite. It's true that Texas has yet to cash a ticket in Vegas, as it is 0-3 ATS this season. But I look for that to change tonight, as undefeated teams, with an 0-3 ATS record, have cashed 71% since 1992, if installed as a favorite. Lay the points with the Longhorns. NCAA Hoops High Roller Winner! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-15-18 | Warriors v. Rockets -1.5 | Top | 86-107 | Win | 100 | 16 h 25 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets minus the points over Golden State, as Houston falls into an 89-48 ATS revenge system of mine. These two teams met for the "de facto" NBA Championship last season, in the Western Conference finals, and Houston lost a heartbreaking 7th game, 101-92, when it blew an 11-point halftime lead. Certainly, when the NBA execs drew up the schedule, this game would have been one of the most highly anticipated games of the season. But some of its luster has been lost due to the absence of Steph Curry, as well as by Houston's slow start to the season. The Rockets are a game below .500, at 6-7, but I expect it to be in the Conference's upper tier by season's end. For our purposes tonight, Houston's losing record has created significant point spread value, especially given that Golden State's best player (Curry) won't be in uniform. And even though Golden State owns the league's best record, at 12-3, it has gone 0-4 ATS this season on the road vs. teams that currently have a .400 (or better) win percentage. Finally, the Warriors are an awful 12-23 ATS as underdogs vs. .660 (or worse) opposition, including 1-9 ATS vs. foes off back to back wins. Take the Rockets. NBA TV Game of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-14-18 | Blazers v. Lakers -2.5 | Top | 117-126 | Win | 100 | 16 h 31 m | Show |
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over Portland. The Trail Blazers are currently on a 4-game SU/ATS win streak, and have sprinted out to a 10-3 record -- which is the 2nd best record in the Western Conference. But Portland is nowhere near the 2nd best team. Indeed, its gaudy record has more to do with its schedule than its true talent. The primary reason for Portland's record is that it has played nine of its 13 games at home. And three of its four road games were played against teams that currently sport losing records! Tonight, the Blazers will travel to Los Angeles to take on a Lakers team it already played twice at home. We played on Portland in the first meeting, and on the Lakers in the 2nd meeting, and cashed both games. We'll take the Lakers tonight, as LeBron James' teams have cashed 71% in his career as favorites vs. conference foes on a 4-game (or better) win streak. Lay the points. NBA GAME OF THE WEEK! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-14-18 | Marquette v. Indiana -5.5 | Top | 73-96 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Hoosiers minus the points over Marquette. The Eagles are 2-0, with home wins over Maryland-Baltimore County (67-42) and Bethune-Cookman (92-59). Unfortunately, the Eagles are an awful 1-9 ATS their last 10 off a double-digit win. Even worse for Marquette: it has to play on the road at Assembly Hall vs. a Hoosiers team which won its first two games by a combined score of 184-90. Off those two wins, Indiana now falls into a 'momentum' system of mine which is 85-29 ATS since 1990. Finally, NCAA basketball teams that give up 45 ppg (or less) on defense have covered 73% at home since 1990 vs. foes off a win, if our home team also covered the spread by 10+ points its previous game. Take the Hoosiers. NCAA GAME OF THE WEEK. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-14-18 | Miami-OH v. Northern Illinois -6.5 | Top | 13-7 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Northern Illinois Huskies minus the points over Miami-Ohio. The Huskies have won six straight, and covered their last three. And this will be their final home game of the season. They'll welcome Miami-Ohio to DeKalb, a week after the Red Hawks pulled an upset, at home, vs. Ohio U. But off that upset win, we'll fade Miami, as road teams have gone just 118-162 ATS off an upset conference win the previous week, if they're now playing a conference foe in its final home game of the season. Take the Huskies. NCAA ELITE INFO WINNER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-14-18 | Buffalo v. Ohio -2.5 | Top | 17-52 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Ohio U. Bobcats minus the points over Buffalo. The Bulls are 9-1 this season, yet find themselves installed as an underdog at 6-4 Ohio. That doesn't bode well, as .900 (or better) teams, at Game 10 forward, have cashed just 20% since 1980 as underdogs in the regular season vs. foes with a W/L percentage less than .643. The Bobcats also fall into a 251-155 ATS system of mine, which plays on certain high-scoring teams at home (Ohio averages 39.3 ppg), as well as an 80-33 ATS angle. Take the Bobcats. MAC CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-13-18 | Georgetown v. Illinois -6 | Top | 88-80 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 36 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Illinois Illini minus the points over Georgetown. Brad Underwood's Illini crushed Evansville on Thursday, 99-60, as a 16-point favorite. They'll now take on Patrick Ewing's Hoyas tonight, in this contest, which is part of the Gavitt Tipoff Games. The Hoyas opened their season with two uninspiring wins at home. Last Tuesday, they were favored by 30.5 points vs. Maryland-Eastern Shore, but won by just 15, 68-53. Then, on Saturday, they eked out an 85-78 win vs. Central Connecticut St. Now, they have to go on the road for the first time this season. Unfortunately, undefeated teams, off back to back home wins to start their season, have cashed just 37.2% in Game 3 as road underdogs of more than 2 points. Even worse: that number collapses to 16% their offense averages 21 points (or more) less than their opponent's. In nine contests since 1990, Georgetown has won just one game outright as an underdog of 3+ points vs. Big 10 opposition. Illinois, meanwhile, is 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS as favorites of more than 6 points vs. Big East opponents. And, over the last 6 seasons, the Illini are 41-1 SU and 28-12 ATS as favorites of more than 6 points, including 10-0 ATS their last 10 when playing with at least 3 days of rest. Take the Illini. |
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11-13-18 | Western Michigan v. Ball State +7.5 | Top | 41-42 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
At 6 pm, our selection is on the Ball State Cardinals + the points over Western Michigan. Last year the Cardinals lost 55-3 to the Broncos. Ball State had last week off to prepare for this revenge game. And, since 1980, rested teams playing with revenge from a 42-point (or worse) defeat are 54-28 ATS, including 8-2 ATS if it was their final home game of the season. Take Ball State + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-12-18 | 76ers v. Heat -1 | Top | 124-114 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 36 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat minus the points over Philadelphia. The 76ers traded two of their rotation players -- Dario Saric and Robert Covington -- for Jimmy Butler over the weekend. Butler will no doubt improve this Sixers squad, but he won't be in uniform tonight. So, Philadelphia will -- for this game anyway -- be short-handed. That especially doesn't bode well, as Miami will be highly motivated to avenge its first round series defeat to the 76ers in last year's Playoffs. And Miami falls into a 24-3 ATS revenge system of mine which plays on certain teams with revenge from a Playoff series defeat. Even better: Miami's off back to back home defeats, and the Heat are 20-10 ATS their last 30 off back to back home losses. Take Miami minus the points. NBA Payback Payday. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-11-18 | Celtics +2.5 v. Blazers | Top | 94-100 | Loss | -102 | 18 h 52 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics + the points over Portland. The Celtics lost their last game -- at Utah -- but G Kyrie Irving didn't play, as he attended a memorial service for his grandfather. Irving is expected to be back in uniform tonight which, of course, is key, as Portland boasts one of the better backcourts in the NBA. This is the last game of a 5-game road trip for Boston, which has dropped three of the first four games. But Boston has generally been terrific as road underdogs under coach Brad Stevens. Indeed, in the regular season since 2015, Boston's 49-30 as a road underdog. And, interestingly, it has also excelled in difficult scheduling situations under Coach Stevens, as it's 42-12 ATS as road underdogs when playing its third game in four nights since he was hired in 2013. The Celtics also fall into one of my favorite NBA systems, which is 277-179 ATS since 1990. Take Boston + the points. NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-10-18 | Lakers -5.5 v. Kings | Top | 101-86 | Win | 100 | 17 h 10 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over Sacramento. The Kings pulled off an upset win last night, when they won, 121-110, at home vs. Minnesota. But off that upset win, we'll fade Sacramento tonight, as they'll be matched up a very well-rested Lakers team which has had the last two nights off. And unrested home teams off an upset home win are an awful 23% ATS since 1990 vs. division foes. Moreover, LeBron James' teams have cashed 65.5% as road favorites vs. foes off home upset wins (and 84% if its foe won by 10+ points in its previous game). Take the Lakers minus the points. NBA Division Game of the Year. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-10-18 | Clemson v. Boston College +20 | Top | 27-7 | Push | 0 | 33 h 31 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Boston College Eagles + the points over Clemson. The Eagles are having a special season. Just three years removed from going winless in ACC Conference play, the Eagles enter this game with their highest ranking (#17) in 11 years, and are 4-1 in Conference games. Certainly, this is a tall task, as Clemson is 9-0 after blowing out Louisville, 77-16, last week, and ranked #2 in the country. But home teams with a .700 (or better) conference win percentage are 101-54 ATS vs. foes with a 4-0 (or better) conference record. And undefeated teams, with a 9-0 (or better) record are a soft 39-64-1 ATS when favored on the road by less than 22 points (or PK), including 4-17 ATS if they scored more than 50 points in their previous game. Take Boston College. ACC Game of the Year! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-10-18 | LSU -11 v. Arkansas | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -107 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the LSU Tigers minus the points over Arkansas. The Tigers lost last week, 29-0, at home to the Alabama Crimson Tide. But I love LSU to bounce back on Saturday, as NCAA favorites playing away from home, that lost a home game the previous week, and failed to score 6 points in that defeat, have gone 13-0 ATS since 2004. LSU is a super 27-15 ATS on the conference road off a loss, including 6-0 ATS off a shutout defeat. Take the Tigers. SEC Favorite of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-10-18 | Southern Miss v. UAB -12 | Top | 23-26 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the UAB Blazers minus the points over Southern Mississippi. The Blazers are 8-1 SU/ATS this season, and have won/covered each of their last seven games. If UAB was not at home, I would consider playing against it, as such teams with spectacular SU/ATS records this late in the season underperform away from home. But at home, they've actually covered more often than not over the last 39 seasons. Instead, we'll go against a Southern Miss team which pulled an upset over Marshall as a home underdog last Saturday. And double digit road underdogs have covered just 35 of 91 vs. conference foes off a double-digit cover, if our road dog entered the game off a home upset conference win its last time out. Take UAB. |
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11-10-18 | Miami-FL +3 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 21-27 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Florida Hurricanes + the points over Georgia Tech. Miami comes into this game off three straight upset losses, while Georgia Tech enters off back to back SU/ATS wins. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against the ice-cold Hurricanes, and on the red-hot Rambling Wreck. But NCAA teams off 3 straight upset losses have covered 73% vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins over the past 38 years. Additionally, Miami falls into a 44-15 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams that didn't score 45+ points combined in their previous three games (Miami scored just 39). Take the Hurricanes. |
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11-10-18 | South Florida +14.5 v. Cincinnati | Top | 23-35 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the South Florida Bulls + the points at Cincinnati. South Florida opened this season with seven straight wins before losing badly its last two games. Last week, the Bulls were annihilated, 41-15, at home by Tulane. And they were blown out two weekends ago, 57-36, by Houston. And they've failed to cover their last four games. But we'll still grab the points with South Florida, as .666 (or better) underdogs of 7+ points are 27-9 ATS off 4+ ATS defeats. Take the Bulls. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-10-18 | Baylor v. Iowa State -16.5 | Top | 14-28 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Iowa State Cyclones minus the points over Baylor. The Bears upset Oklahoma State, 35-31, as a 6-point home underdog last Saturday, while Iowa State blew out Kansas, 27-3. Unfortunately for Baylor, winning teams, off an upset win as a 6-point (or greater) conference home dog, are a poor 25% ATS as road underdogs vs. conference foes off a double digit win. Take Iowa State. |
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11-10-18 | Mississippi State +24 v. Alabama | Top | 0-24 | Push | 0 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs + the points over Alabama. The Bulldogs are 6-3 this season, and own the 5th best defense (tied with Fresno State) in the country, as they're giving up just 12.33 ppg. Let's grab the points with Mississippi State, as underdogs are 261-187 ATS if they give up less than 13.5 points per game, at Game 6 forward. Take the Bulldogs. |
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11-10-18 | Purdue v. Minnesota +10.5 | Top | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Golden Gophers + the points over Purdue. The Boilermakers are having a solid season. They're 5-4 this year, but, if truth be told, have had a pretty favorable schedule. The Boilers have played just three of their nine games on the road. And those three games were against Nebraska, Illinois and Michigan State. Purdue won the games vs. Nebraska and Illinois. But those two schools are 6-12 combined this year. Moreover, Nebraska is 1-10 ATS its last 11 lined home games, while Illinois is 5-14 ATS its last 19 home games. Not surprisingly, Purdue lost its only tough game on the road, as it fell by 10 points at Michigan State (well, at least, we weren't surprised, as we had a big play on Michigan State in that game). Minnesota, notwithstanding its 24-point road loss last week, will give Purdue all it can handle, now that it's back home. The Golden Gophers are 4-1 SU/ATS at home this season, and have won 28 of their last 40 home games. And the Gophers also fall into an 86-34 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams (like Minnesota) off blowout losses. Take Minnesota. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-09-18 | Louisville +21.5 v. Syracuse | Top | 23-54 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 23 m | Show |
At 7 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Louisville Cardinals + the points over Syracuse. Last week, the Cardinals were shellacked, 77-16, by Clemson. That was the most points given up by an ACC school in 23 years, and was the 2nd worst defeat by a team in an ACC Conference game in the last 39 seasons. It was also Louisville's 4th SU/ATS loss in a row, and the 2nd straight game that Louisville failed to cover by 23+ points. This last fact will no doubt keep a lot of bettors away from the Cardinals side in this game. But it shouldn't, as road teams off back to back SU/ATS losses, in which they failed to cover by 20+ points, have actually covered the spread more often than not -- including 34-20-2 ATS vs. foes off a SU/ATS win. The Cardinals also fall into a 96-56 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off a SU/ATS loss vs. an opponent off a SU/ATS win. Take Louisville + the points. NCAA Football High Roller. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-08-18 | Clippers v. Blazers -5 | Top | 105-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over the LA Clippers. The Blazers are off to a super 8-3 start this season. And two of their defeats were at home vs. Washington and the Lakers. But those two games were incredibly bad situations, as Washington and the Lakers, in those road games vs. Portland, were our two strongest plays of this NBA season-to-date. So, from my perspective, Portland's only played one bad game this season, and that was its 9-point road loss at Miami. It's true that the Clippers are also having a solid start to the season. But Portland rates better in both margin of victory (+3.50) and point spread differential (+1.35). And the Clippers have underwhelmed on the road this season, with a 2-3 SU/ATS record. And their only two road wins were against Orlando and a Houston Rockets squad which played without James Harden. Portland's won and covered the last three meetings vs. the Clippers. And it's also 25-5 straight-up and 22-6-2 ATS in calendar year 2018 at home in the regular season. Take Portland. WESTERN CONF. GAME OF THE WEEK. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-07-18 | Spurs +2 v. Heat | Top | 88-95 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 13 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs + the points over Miami. The more things change, the more they stay the same down on the Riverwalk. Gregg Popovich's Spurs were not expected to make the Playoffs this season, much less be in the Western Conference's upper tier. But nine games into the season finds them sitting in 4th place, with a 6-3 record. Even their defense -- which ranked dead last earlier this season -- has improved and become more "Spurs-like." In their four-game win streak, the Spurs gave up, on average, less than 100 ppg, and held their opponents to 45.0% FG shooting. They then pulled a clunker in their last game, a 117-110 home loss to the Magic, primarily because they surrendered 36 points in the first quarter. It also didn't help that the Spurs were on the 2nd of a back-to-back. After the game, LaMarcus Aldridge commented, "We just came in and we didn’t play as good at defense as we can. We’ll get better and be better at it next game." I think that will definitely prove to be the case, tonight. And it certainly will help that Spurs had Monday and Tuesday off to rest. Take San Antonio. NBA High Roller Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-06-18 | Hawks +11.5 v. Hornets | Top | 102-113 | Win | 100 | 16 h 36 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks + the points over Charlotte. The Hawks enter this game off an upset win over the Miami Heat. They were a 5.5-point home dog, but won 123-118, and covered by 10.5 points. Tonight, they'll take on another division opponent -- the Charlotte Hornets. Charlotte also is off a big win, as it blew out Cleveland, 126-94, on Saturday. Unfortunately for Charlotte, teams off a win by more the 30 points, that scored more than 120 points, have covered just 34% as favorites of more than 10 points against losing teams. Additionally, the Hawks fall into one of my favorite NBA systems, which is now 300-207 ATS since 1990, including a win on Sunday on our Eastern Conference Game of the Week on the Wizards. Take the Hawks. NBA Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-05-18 | Titans +5.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 5 h 11 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans + the points over Dallas. The Cowboys were upset by the Washington Redskins in their last game, 20-17, as a 1.5-point favorite. And NFL teams have covered just 73 of 184 Monday Night Football games if they were off an upset loss in their previous game. Tennessee, meanwhile, is very well rested following its game in London two weekends ago. And, since 2015, rested NFL teams have gone 14-2-1 ATS after playing in London, including a perfect 9-0 ATS off an ATS win. Take Tennessee. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-04-18 | Grizzlies v. Suns +4 | Top | 100-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns + the points over Memphis. These two teams met eight days ago, at Memphis, in a game won by the home team, 117-96. But the Suns' best player, Devin Booker (25.8 ppg, 6.6 assists) was injured, and didn't play. But Booker returned to the court this past Friday, and scored 18 points in 36 minutes. Certainly, he was a bit rusty after missing three games, but he will no doubt be better tonight. Since defeating Phoenix, Memphis also won its next two games -- against Washington and Utah. But Memphis' win streak is a bit deceptive, as it occurred against teams all playing very poor basketball. The Suns are mired in a 7-game losing streak; Utah has lost its last three; and Washington has lost five in a row. And both Utah and (as I mentioned) Phoenix were without their top scorers. Since 1990, winning NBA teams, off 3+ wins, are a poor 71-97 ATS vs. Non-Division foes off 7+ losses. That doesn't bode well for Memphis as a road favorite tonight. Also, the Suns fall into 60-24 and 274-179 ATS systems of mine. Take Phoenix. NBA Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-04-18 | Knicks v. Wizards -6.5 | Top | 95-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Wizards minus the points over New York. The Wizards are off to a 1-7 start this season, with their only win by a single point, at Portland. But I love them tonight vs. the Knicks. Washington has won 15 of 17 since 2013, and has gone 12-2 ATS when not favored by double-digits. The Wizards also fall into one of my favorite NBA systems, which motivated our big play on the Lakers last night (and is 298-207 ATS since 1990). Take Washington. Eastern Conf. Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-04-18 | Texans v. Broncos +1 | Top | 19-17 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos over Houston. The Broncos are 3-5, but have played a murderous schedule. Four of their eight games were against teams currently in the Playoffs, and they lost (twice) to the once-beaten Chiefs, and also lost to the undefeated Rams, while defeating 5-3 Seattle. In contrast, the Texans have played just one team (New England) in their first eight games which would currently be in the Playoffs, and they lost SU/ATS, 27-20, as a 6.5-point underdog. The Broncos are a fantastic 45-18-4 ATS at home when not favored by more than 2 points. Take Denver. |
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11-04-18 | Falcons +2 v. Redskins | Top | 38-14 | Win | 100 | 60 h 57 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons over the Washington Redskins. The Falcons had high hopes coming into the 2018 season, but got off to a poor 1-4 start due to several close losses by six points or less to Playoff contenders (Eagles, Saints, Bengals). However, Atlanta was able to right its ship, and won the two games preceding its bye week last week. So, the Falcons are now 3-4, and sit just one game behind the Seahawks for the final Playoff spot in the NFC. I love Atlanta to win its 3rd straight game, as rested NFL road teams off back-to-back wins have gone 61-34 ATS if they weren't getting 3+ points. And the Redskins are an awful 31-71 ATS at home vs. losing teams, if the 'Skins weren't getting 2+ points. Take Atlanta. NFC Conference Game of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-04-18 | Bucs +6.5 v. Panthers | Top | 28-42 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Bucs + the points over Carolina. The Panthers are off back to back upset wins over Philadelphia and Baltimore. Unfortunately, favorites of 4+ points, off back to back upset wins, have cashed just 19 of 68 vs. .500 (or worse) foes off a SU loss. Take Tampa Bay. |
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11-04-18 | Bears v. Bills +10.5 | Top | 41-9 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills + the points over Chicago. The Bills obviously are challenged to score points right now. They scored just six last week vs. the Patriots, and five the week before that, at Indianapolis. Even worse: they gave up 25 and 37 to their opponents in those games. But I've never been one to shy away from playing on poor teams. And I won't back off the Bills this afternoon. For technical support, consider that teams that scored 12 combined points, or less, over their two previous games (and lost each), while giving up more than 55 points combined in those two games, have cashed 21 of 25 when getting more than six points. And Buffalo's also 41-16 ATS off a home loss, if they didn't cover the spread in that defeat, and their opponent is off a SU win. Take the Bills. |
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11-04-18 | Steelers v. Ravens -2 | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens minus the points over Pittsburgh. The Steelers are the Ravens' biggest rival, so Baltimore always gets up for Pittsburgh. And this week's game should be especially important to the Ravens, as they're off back to back losses, and now sit outside the Playoff picture (one game behind the Bengals), at 4-4. Meanwhile, the Steelers have reeled off three straight wins to wrest control of the division lead. However, since 1980, the Ravens are a fantastic 15-1-1 ATS at home vs. the Steelers, if the Ravens were off a loss, and didn't have a winning ATS record. Even better: NFL favorites off back to back losses have cashed 60% since October 25, 1981 vs. foes off 3 wins. Take the Ravens. NFL Division Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-03-18 | Lakers +3 v. Blazers | Top | 114-110 | Win | 100 | 17 h 15 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers + the points over Portland. We played on the Trail Blazers when these two teams met in their season opener, and were rewarded with a win and cover by Portland. That was also the 16th straight win by Portland in this series, which ties it for the 2nd longest active win streak by one team against another (only OKC's 18-game win streak vs. Philly is longer). However, this win streak should come to a halt tonight, as teams that have lost 16+ games in a row to their opponent actually do quite well against the spread, with a 65.7% win rate over the last 29 seasons. And the Lakers also fall into one of my very best NBA systems, with a 297-207 ATS record since 1990, as well as a 2nd angle (based on revenge) which is 205-128 ATS. Take the Lakers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-03-18 | USC -15.5 v. Oregon State | Top | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 20 h 28 m | Show |
At 10 pm, our selection is on the Southern Cal Trojans minus the points over Oregon St. The Beavers pulled off a stunning win in overtime last week, when it roared back from a 31-3 deficit to defeat Colorado, 41-34. Oregon State was a 26.5-point underdog in that game, so that upset ranked as one of the 31 biggest upsets of the past 39 seasons. Generally speaking, I'll look to go against such teams in their next game, as they often will suffer letdowns following such massive victories. And such teams have been especially weak against .500 (or better) opponents, as they covered just 22% of those games. It's true that the Trojans come into this game on a 2-game losing streak. But USC is 7-2 ATS since 2001 off back to back losses. This will be a blowout. Lay the points with USC. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-03-18 | Louisiana Tech v. Mississippi State -23 | Top | 3-45 | Win | 100 | 18 h 57 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs minus the points over Louisiana Tech. Last Friday, Louisiana Tech went into Florida Atlantic, and upset the Owls, 21-13, as a 3.5-point underdog. Can it pull off back to back road upsets? It's not likely, as double-digit road underdogs have cashed just 38% since 1980 vs. non-conference foes, if they upset a conference foe on the road in their previous game. Lay the points with Mississippi State. |
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11-03-18 | Notre Dame v. Northwestern +10.5 | Top | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 18 h 42 m | Show |
At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Northwestern Wildcats + the points over Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish are undefeated, with an 8-0 record, while Northwestern is just 5-3. But both teams are equal in Las Vegas, as each has a 4-4 ATS record. We'll go against Notre Dame, as undefeated teams, with a record of 8-0 (or better), have cashed just 50 of 131 on the road vs. opponents that owned a .500 (or better) ATS win percentage. Also, Northwestern's a solid 21-8 ATS as a home underdog priced from +7 to +13.5 points. Take the Wildcats. |
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11-03-18 | Cavs +9.5 v. Hornets | Top | 94-126 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers + the points over Charlotte. The Cavs might be 1-7 straight-up, but they've actually been doing OK vs. the point spread, with a 4-4 record. However, they're a perfect 3-0 ATS when getting more than 5 points. And that's the situation tonight, at Charlotte. Also, Cleveland was blown out, 110-91, by Denver, on Thursday. But that 19-point loss has triggered one of my favorite NBA systems, which is 125-51 ATS since 1990. That angle plays on certain teams to bounce back off blowout losses. Take Cleveland + the points. |
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11-03-18 | Pistons v. 76ers -7.5 | Top | 99-109 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over Detroit. The Pistons come into this road game on a 3-game losing streak, and they've lost 4 of 7 to the point spread to start the season. Meanwhile, the 76ers are 5-4 on the season. And, interestingly, they've won all five of their home games, but lost all four of their road games. So, it's a good thing that the Sixers will play this afternoon's game at home, today. And dating back to last season, the 76ers are 31-4 straight-up and 25-10 ATS at home, including 13-0 SU and 12-1 ATS vs. foes with a losing record ATS. Take Philly minus the points. |
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11-02-18 | Colorado +3 v. Arizona | Top | 34-42 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 31 m | Show |
At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Buffaloes + the points over Arizona. The Buffaloes were inexplicably upset by Oregon State last Saturday, 41-34, in overtime, after leading the game by a score of 31-3! And that was Colorado's 3rd straight loss, overall. Certainly, last week's defeat was a gut-wrenching game, as it matched the largest blown lead in school history. But I fully expect Mike MacIntyre's men to rebound on Friday. For technical support, consider that road underdogs of +6 points or less have cashed 64% over the last 38 years off 3+ losses, if they were upset in their previous game. Additionally, Arizona's a horrid 0-10 ATS since 1991 as a favorite of more than 2 points off an upset win. Take the Buffaloes. Perfect 10 Club play. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-02-18 | Grizzlies v. Jazz -7.5 | Top | 110-100 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Memphis. The Jazz were upset here, at home, by Memphis, 92-84, as an 11-point favorite in the season's first week. And they also were upset by the T-wolves on Wednesday, 128-125, as a 7.5-point road favorite. But I look for the Jazz to avenge their loss to Memphis, as teams off an upset road loss in their previous game, as a 7-point (or greater) favorite, are 15-0-1 ATS since Nov. 26, 2004 when priced from -4.5 to -13.5 points!  And the Jazz are also 102-74 ATS when priced from -3.5 to -9.5 at home, and playing with revenge from an earlier season defeat. Lay the points with Utah. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-02-18 | Pittsburgh v. Virginia -7 | Top | 23-13 | Loss | -117 | 17 h 29 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers minus the points over Pittsburgh. The Panthers upset the Duke Blue Devils, 54-45, last week, as a 2.5-point home underdog. And they'll now try to make it two upsets in a row when they take on the 23rd-ranked Cavaliers, who are on a 3-game win streak. Unfortunately for the Panthers, road teams off an upset win as a home dog have cashed just 34% since 1980 vs. foes off back to back wins, if our road team wasn't getting more than 10 points. Take Virginia to blow out Pitt. NCAA High Roller Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-01-18 | Raiders +3 v. 49ers | Top | 3-34 | Loss | -120 | 26 h 22 m | Show |
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Raiders and San Francisco 49ers to go over the total. Both of these teams have had defensive issues this season. Oakland is giving up 31.1 ppg, while the Niners are surrendering 29.5. Since 1980, in NFL games with lines of 45 or more points, the OVER has cashed 25 of 33 games if both teams had defenses that gave up 29+ points. Take the over. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-01-18 | Kings v. Hawks +2 | Top | 146-115 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks + the points over Sacramento. The Kings are one of the early-season surprises in the NBA. After Tuesday's win at Orlando, they've won their last four games, and were underdogs in each game. Their road trip continues tonight in Atlanta, but they won't make it five straight upsets, as they've been installed in the rare (for them) role of a road favorite. The Kings, not surprisingly, have not found much success as road favorites, as they're 26-53-2 ATS in that role since 2004, including 0-16-1 ATS their last 17 when laying less than 3 points against an opponent off a loss! The Hawks also fall into a 236-159 ATS system of mine which plays against certain winning teams (like Sacramento). Take Atlanta. Perfect 10 Club Play. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-31-18 | Pistons v. Nets -2.5 | Top | 119-120 | Loss | -115 | 2 h 46 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Detroit. These two teams met on opening night, and the Pistons handed Brooklyn a narrow 3-point defeat. The Nets covered the 6-point spread, though, and are 4-3 ATS to start the season. Detroit, meanwhile, has not made many friends in Las Vegas thus far, as it's just 2-4 ATS. The Nets have lost just two games BOTH SU and ATS -- and those two games were at Indiana, and at New York. But Brooklyn played each of those two games without rest. Tonight, however, the Nets are well-rested, and catch the Pistons playing without rest. Brooklyn falls into a 188-101 ATS revenge system of mine. Lay the points. |
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10-31-18 | Ball State +19.5 v. Toledo | Top | 13-45 | Loss | -109 | 2 h 43 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Ball State Cardinals + the points over Toledo. Ball State was blown out by 38 points (as a 10-point underdog) in its last game. And it lost by 22 points (as a 2.5-point dog) in its game two weeks ago. Thus, over its two previous games, it failed to cover the spread by a combined 47.5 points. But the Cardinals fall into a 64-32 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off back to back ATS losses by 19+ points. And Ball State is also 55-26 ATS on the road since Oct. 29, 2005, including 8-0 ATS when priced from +16 to +19.5 points. Take Ball State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-29-18 | Patriots v. Bills +14.5 | Top | 25-6 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 4 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills + the points over New England. One of the more reliable long-term NFL situations has been to play on double-digit home underdogs against opponents off straight-up wins. Since 1980, they've gone 87-56-2 ATS. And though there's nothing wrong with such a record, we can improve it by filtering out double-digit underdogs that were non-competitive in their two previous games (failing to cover each by more than 7+ points). With that filter in place, our 87-56-2 record zooms to 75-38-2 ATS. And, yes, it's certainly true that Tom Brady's Patriots have been the standard-bearer in the NFL for the last 18 years. But New England's been poor lately in the role of a big favorite away from home, as they've cashed just 3 of their last 13 when laying 9 or more points (and just 1 of 9 if it wasn't off a loss). Take Buffalo. Monday Night Football Game of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-29-18 | Kings v. Heat -8 | Top | 123-113 | Loss | -107 | 17 h 25 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat minus the points over Sacramento. The Kings enter this game off back to back upset wins over Memphis and Washington. And those two games leveled their record at 3-3 this season. But the Kings have been horrible off wins the past 2+ years, as they're 23-35 ATS, including 5-14 ATS vs. .600 (or better) opposition. And when the Kings were off 2+ wins, then those two stats devolve to 5-11 and 0-5 ATS. Miami has dominated this series vs. Sacramento, with a 35-14 ATS record since 1992, including a perfect 9-0 ATS if Sacramento was off back to back wins! Take Miami. Perfect 10 Club play. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-28-18 | Packers +9 v. Rams | Top | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 26 h 19 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers + the points over the LA Rams. The Packers had last week off to rest and prepare for the 7-0 Rams. Immediately before their bye week, the Packers survived a tough game, at home, vs. San Francisco, and won 33-30, as an 8.5-point favorite. The Packers are just 2-4 ATS this season, but with Aaron Rodgers as their starting QB, they've been extremely profitable. In his career, the Packers are 94-66 ATS with him under center, including a fantastic 36-20 ATS off a point spread loss (and 9-2 ATS as an underdog). And Rodgers is also 10-0 ATS if the Packers had a losing ATS record on the season and were playing an opponent off a win. Take Green Bay. Perfect 10 Club Play! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-28-18 | Broncos +10 v. Chiefs | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 31 h 5 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over Kansas City. This is the 2nd meeting this season between these AFC West division rivals. In the first meeting, the Broncos actually had a lead after three quarters, but KC came back to win, 27-23 (and covered the closing line of -3.5). Impressively, the Chiefs are the 21st NFL team since 1980 to not lose against the spread in any of its first six games. But what's remarkable about KC's ATS win streak thus far is that they are doing it in spite of a very leaky defense. Indeed, of the 21 teams that were undefeated ATS through their first six games, the Chiefs have -- by far -- the worst defense. KC is giving up 26 points per game...but none of the other 20 clubs had a defense which gave up more than 21.16 ppg! This doesn't bode well for the Chiefs going forward. And especially not in their games, like this particular one, where they are favored by a large amount. For technical support, consider that NFL favorites of -8 or more points, that give up 23.67 (or more) points per game, are an awful 35-77-1 ATS at Game 6 forward since 1980. Moreover, AFC West division teams playing with same-season revenge have gone 113-71-5 ATS since 1980 vs. division rivals that did not have a losing ATS record, provided our revenger was not favored by more than 6 points. Denver did everything BUT win in the first meeting, back on October 1st. However, I expect the Broncos to not let this game slip away this time. Take the points. AFC West Game of the Year! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-28-18 | Redskins v. Giants +1.5 | Top | 20-13 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants over the Washington Redskins. The Redskins come into the Meadowlands off back to back upset wins, at home, vs. Carolina and Dallas. And they’ve now been installed as a road favorite vs. a Giants team on a 4-game losing streak. Unfortunately for Washington, teams off back to back upset wins are an awful 52-77 ATS since 1980 vs. opponents off back to back losses. Likewise, teams off back to back SU/ATS wins, as well as an upset win in their previous game, are 28-47 ATS vs. opponents off 4 or more defeats. Finally, New York is a solid 37-21 ATS at home vs. division rivals off a point spread win. Take the Giants. NFL Roadkill Play. |
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10-27-18 | Pacers v. Cavs +6.5 | Top | 119-107 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers + the points over Indiana. The Cavs will look to snap their five-game losing streak on this Saturday night. And they'll take on division rival, Indiana, which upset San Antone in the Alamo City on Wednesday. We'll grab the points with the home dog, as NBA underdogs of more than 3 points are 61-21 ATS since 1992 off 5+ losses, if they're playing a division opponent off an upset win. Take Cleveland. NBA Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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10-27-18 | Florida International v. Western Kentucky +4 | Top | 38-17 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 58 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers + the points over Florida International. Last week, the Hilltoppers suffered, perhaps, the most excruciating loss of the season (a game which really needed to be SEEN to be believed). Indeed, the Hilltoppers actually led 34-27 with 1:37 left in regulation. But Old Dominion scored a tying TD with nine seconds left, and then a WINNING Field Goal with no time (literally) on the clock, as they game had seemingly ended three plays before. But because of rules violations on three successive plays (including a game-winning FG attempt by Western Kentucky), there were three untimed downs after the clock had expired. And on the 3rd untimed down, it was Florida International which kicked the game-winner. That was the Hilltoppers' 3rd straight loss and, for some, it might be a crushing loss. But this is actually a perfect spot for Mike Sanford's team to bounce back, as it's homecoming night for Western Kentucky, so the campus will be excited, and the team will be motivated.  Indeed, coach Sanford was asked if he felt his team was snake-bit after last week's loss, and he said, 'no,' that he 'doesn't believe in karma' but rather 'hard work' which his players continue to exude. Now, it's true that the Panthers are 3-0 in Conference USA, while the Hilltoppers are 0-3 within the Conference. But, as discussed above, the Hilltoppers were less than two minutes away from a victory (and point spread cover) last week. And, for the season, the Hilltoppers are 4-3 ATS, with several close losses (four of their six losses were by a mere three points, so they certainly have not played badly). One of the things I love to do, at Conference Game 4 forward, is play on home teams winless in Conference play, if they were matched up against an opponent which was unbeaten in conference play, and the game was competitively-priced with a point spread of 10 points or less. Over the last 38 seasons, our home teams have covered 80% of the time. Moreover, Western Kentucky is a perfect 9-0 ATS as a home underdog of +6 or less points since November 2009. Take the Hilltoppers. CUSA Game of the Year. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-27-18 | NC State -2 v. Syracuse | Top | 41-51 | Loss | -103 | 24 h 58 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the North Carolina State Wolfpack minus the points over Syracuse. The Wolfpack were blown out by Clemson, 41-7, last week, which was their first loss of the season. However, I look for them to bounce back and get a road victory this evening. Not only have coach Dave Doreen's Wolfpack won each of the last four meetings vs. Syracuse, but they're also 8-1-1 ATS their last 10 as a road favorite. And, going back to Doreen's stint as head coach of Northern Illinois, his teams have gone 12-2-1 ATS as a road favorite, including 3-0-1 ATS off a loss. Finally, winning road favorites have gone 152-112 ATS since 1993 off a conference loss by 10+ points, if they also failed to cover the spread by 12+ points in that loss. Take NC State. NCAA Road Warrior Winner. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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10-27-18 | Purdue v. Michigan State -1.5 | Top | 13-23 | Win | 100 | 25 h 25 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Michigan State Spartans minus the points over Purdue. Last week, we played on the Boilermakers as a double-digit home underdog vs. then-unbeaten Ohio State, and easily got the cash when Purdue romped over the Buckeyes by 29 points. So, let’s put Purdue’s win into context. Since 1980, there have been 907 games played by teams, like Ohio State, that were undefeated after 7 or more games. Of those 907 games, there were only three other times those unbeaten teams were blown out, and failed to cover the point spread by 41 points! Interestingly, all three of those teams that pulled off those stunning victories were favored in their next game — by 4, 7 and 13.5 points. But all three of those teams lost outright — by 24, 7 and 24 points — thus failing to cover the spread by an average of 26.5 points! A similar result should occur here. Take Michigan State to blow out Purdue. Big 10 Game of the Month. Good luck, as always…Al McMordie.
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10-27-18 | Clemson v. Florida State +17 | Top | 59-10 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 8 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles + the points over Clemson. The Tigers enter this contest on a 7-game win streak, including 63-3 and 41-7 blowout wins over their last two foes (Wake Forest, NC State). Unfortunately, NCAA favorites (or PK) off back to back stellar defensive performances, where they held their two opponents to less than 10 points, are a poor 29-62-1 ATS away from home since 1982 vs. winning teams off a SU/ATS win. That's one reason I love the Seminoles. Another is that Willie Taggart's teams (Western Kentucky, South Florida, Oregon, Florida State) have excelled as underdogs (or as a small favorite of -3 or less points) with him as the head coach, including 31-14-1 ATS their last 46 vs. conference foes. Take Florida State. NCAA High Noon Hanging! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-26-18 | Wizards -4 v. Kings | Top | 112-116 | Loss | -108 | 19 h 44 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Wizards minus the points over Sacramento. In its last game, Washington was blown out, 144-122, by the Golden State Warriors. But off that big loss, we'll lay the points with the Wizards in Sacramento on this Friday. For technical support, consider that NBA favorites of -2.5 (or more) points have gone 45-19 ATS off a blowout loss by 15+ points, if they gave up more than 130 points in that defeat. We actually just saw this situation present itself last Saturday, when the Houston Rockets rebounded from their 131-112 defeat to New Orleans to upend the Lakers, 124-115. Similarly, I look for the Wizards to roll tonight over Sacramento. Lay the points. NBA High Roller Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-26-18 | Nets +9.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 115-117 | Win | 100 | 17 h 45 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets + the points over New Orleans. After shooting 53.1% and 58.9% from the field in their first two games, the Pelicans came back down to earth in their 3rd game, where they shot just 43.0% from the field. So, it was no surprise that their offensive production went from 131 and 149 points (which they got in Games 1 + 2) to 116 points, and that their margin of victory went from 19 and 20 points to just seven points. Of course, New Orleans' particular opponents in those games had a lot to do with their offensive field goal percentage. In games 1 + 2, the Pelicans faced Houston and Sacramento -- teams that are allowing more than 48% of opponents' shots to be converted, and giving up 115.2 and 122.0 points, respectively. In contrast, New Orleans' last opponent (the Clippers) is only allowing 106.7 ppg, on 41.2% FG shooting, and ranks 1st in effective FG percentage (46.2%). Likewise, tonight's foe (Brooklyn) is only allowing 44.1% of shot attempts to be converted, and ranks 6th in effective FG percentage (48.6%), and 8th in defensive ppg (106.5). I expect the Pelicans to once again have a more difficult time on offense, and for this game to be extremely close. The Nets are 25-9 their last 34 as road underdogs, 17-4-1 ATS their last 22 on the road vs. a foe off an ATS win, and 41-17-2 ATS their last 60 on the road when playing with rest. Take the points with Brooklyn. NBA Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-26-18 | Louisiana Tech +3.5 v. Florida Atlantic | Top | 21-13 | Win | 100 | 15 h 48 m | Show |
At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs + the points over Florida Atlantic. The Owls were upset, 31-7, last Saturday on the road by the Marshall Thundering Herd. They've now been installed as a home favorite vs. LA Tech. Unfortunately, home favorites of 7 or less points are an awful 108-179 ATS off an upset road loss. Even worse: Florida Atlantic is a poor 27-44 ATS at home, including 1-8 ATS when priced from -3.5 to -7 points. Take Louisiana Tech. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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10-25-18 | Nuggets v. Lakers +4 | Top | 114-121 | Win | 100 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers + the points over Denver. The Nuggets have sprinted out to a 4-0 record, including an impressive upset win, at home, over the Golden State Warriors. Now, they'll try to go into Staples Center to defeat LeBron James & Co. We played on Los Angeles last night and got the $$$$ in a blowout win over Phoenix. I like LA to make it two in a row tonight, as home underdogs have gone 158-119 ATS vs. non-division foes off 4 SU/ATS wins, if such foe owned a winning SU/ATS record on the season. Take the Lakers. NBA Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-25-18 | Appalachian State v. Georgia Southern +10 | Top | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Southern Eagles + the points over Appalachian St. The Mountaineers are 5-1, and have not lost since their opening day, overtime loss, at Penn State. Today, they'll take on the 6-1 Eagles, who routed New Mexico St. last weekend, 48-31. For the season, the Eagles are outscoring their foes, on average, by a score of 31.0 to 19.3. But at home, those numbers improve to 36.7 ppg, on offense, and just 13.2 ppg, on defense. Additionally, Georgia Southern falls into a very good 88-28 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams, at home, off a win. And, finally, since 1980, NCAA underdogs of more than 2 points are 239-167 ATS off back to back wins, if they average more than 29.5 points per game on offense. Take Georgia Southern. NCAA Roadkill play. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-25-18 | Baylor +14 v. West Virginia | Top | 14-58 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Baylor Bears + the points over West Virginia. The Mountaineers come into tonight's game off a 30-14 loss to Iowa State, which was WVU's first defeat of the season (after starting with 5 straight wins). One of the things I love to do when betting College Football games is to go against certain teams off their initial loss of the season, if they had a 5-0 (or better) record prior to the defeat. These teams, more often than not, fail to bounce back from their first loss of the season. And Baylor is a play out of a super 97-47 ATS system of mine which goes against such teams (like WVU) off their first loss. Even worse for the Mountaineers: they have a history of not rebounding off upset losses, as they're 1-9 ATS off an upset loss, generally, and also 2-15 ATS their last 17 off an upset loss by 10+ points. Take Baylor. Thursday Night Football Game of the Month! Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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10-24-18 | Lakers -2.5 v. Suns | Top | 131-113 | Win | 100 | 18 h 30 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over Phoenix. The Lakers fell to 0-3 SU/ATS on Monday when they were upset in overtime, 143-142, by Gregg Popovich's Spurs. However, it must be noted that Los Angeles' three opponents to start the season were all Western Conference playoff participants last year. In stark contrast, their opponent tonight -- the Phoenix Suns -- were the NBA's absolute worst team last season. That bodes well for the Lakers to break through with a win tonight. Also, LeBron James has opened a regular season with four straight losses just once (2003), and I don't expect history to repeat itself tonight. Indeed, in his career, his teams have gone 20-6 ATS on the road off an upset defeat, if they were matched up against a .373 (or worse) opponent in their current game. And the Suns have cashed just 13 of their last 38 at home. Take the Lakers. NBA Road Warrior Winner. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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10-23-18 | Kings +11 v. Nuggets | Top | 112-126 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 31 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings + the points over Denver. The Kings won their first game of this young season in impressive fashion on Sunday, as they upset the OKC Thunder, 131-120, as a 10.5-point underdog. And that game serves as a "buy signal" for me, as NBA road underdogs of more than 9 points, off exactly one win, have cashed 60% since 1990 if they covered the point spread by 20+ points in their previous game. With Denver in off an upset win over the Golden State Warriors, I look for a huge letdown as a double-digit favorite tonight. Indeed, home teams have gone 5-13 ATS the last 4+ seasons after upsetting the Warriors at home in their previous game. Take Sacramento plus the points. NBA ELITE INFO PLAY. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-23-18 | Troy -12.5 v. South Alabama | Top | 38-17 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Troy State Trojans minus the points over South Alabama. The Jaguars come into tonight's game off a blowout win, at home, vs. Alabama State. Unfortunately, the Jaguars are an awful 1-9 ATS off a point spread win. And they're just 17-32 ATS in Conference games. Meanwhile, Troy State is a solid 15-6 ATS its last 21 road games. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-22-18 | Wizards +5 v. Blazers | Top | 125-124 | Win | 100 | 17 h 58 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Wizards + the points over Portland. The Trail Blazers enter this game off back to back SU/ATS wins over the Los Angeles Lakers (128-119) and San Antonio Spurs (121-108). In contrast, Washington checks in off back to back upset losses, at home, vs. the Heat and Raptors. But if there is a silver lining to Washington's 0-2 start, it's that it lost those two games by a combined five points. I expect Washington to break through with an upset win tonight, as losing teams have cashed 31 of 36 on the road off a point spread defeat, if they were matched up against an .866 (or better) non-division foe off a point spread win. Additionally, road dogs of +5 or less points have gone 101-72 ATS after back to back losses by 5 or less points.  And NBA favorites off back to back wins in which they scored 117+ points, have cashed just 38% since 1990 vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS losses. Grab the points with Washington. NBA Underdog of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-21-18 | Rockets v. Clippers +3 | Top | 112-115 | Win | 100 | 17 h 22 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers over the Houston Rockets. This is a horrid scheduling spot for Houston. It played its first road game of the season last night vs. the Lakers, and now continues this early season road trip without the benefit of a day off. Meanwhile, the Clippers had Saturday off following their blowout win over the Thunder. For technical support, consider that, since 1990, one would have cashed 71% by playing against unrested NBA favorites on the road if they were coming off a win in their first road game of the season. Even better: if our road team had a win percentage of .666 (or better) the previous season, then our 71% ATS system zooms to 83% ATS since 1990. Take the Los Angeles Clippers to blow out Houston. NBA Elite Info Winner! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-21-18 | Titans +7 v. Chargers | Top | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 35 h 38 m | Show |
At 9:30 am, early on Sunday morning, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans + the points over the Los Angeles Chargers. This game will be played in London, England. The Chargers are 4-2 on the season, including back to back wins (and covers) in their last two games. Going in the opposite direction are the Titans, who are 3-3, but off back to back SU/ATS losses. So, the Titans will be looking to rebound. And they'll surely be in an ornery mood since they were shutout, 21-0, last week by Baltimore. The good news, though, for Tennessee fans is that, since 1980, it's been profitable to bet on teams off shutout losses, and especially when priced from +2.5 to +9.5 in non-division games. Indeed, those teams are 37-8 ATS their last 45! That's one reason to favor Tennessee in this game. Another is that the Chargers are a poor 16% ATS away from home since 1980 off back to back SU/ATS wins, if they're playing a non-division foe off back to back SU/ATS losses. Take the Titans + the points on Sunday morning. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-20-18 | Wolves v. Mavs +3 | Top | 136-140 | Win | 100 | 15 h 53 m | Show |
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks + the points over the Minnesota Timberwolves. Last night, Minnesota bested Cleveland, 131-123, while Dallas had the last two nights off following its 121-100 defeat at Phoenix on Wednesday. I look for Rick Carlisle's men to bounce back tonight, as they're 45-21-4 ATS off a road loss, if they're playing an opponent off a win, including a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS if they lost by more than 20 points in their previous game. Take Dallas. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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10-20-18 | Ohio State v. Purdue +13 | Top | 20-49 | Win | 100 | 1 h 19 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Purdue Boilermakers + the points over Ohio State. The Ohio State Buckeyes are ranked 2nd in the country with a 7-0 record. But they've been ice-cold in Las Vegas, as they've failed to cover the point spread in each of their last three games. In contrast, Purdue has been paying off its bettors, as the Boilermakers have covered each of their last four games, and have won their last three straight-up. Even more impressive is the fact that the Boilermakers have covered the spread by double-digits in each of their last three games. And home teams have gone 147-90 ATS in conference games, if they weren't favored by 6 or more points, and they're off back to back wins, in which they covered the spread by double-digits. Take Purdue + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-20-18 | Oregon v. Washington State -2.5 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 29 h 23 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Washington State Cougars minus the points over Oregon. We played on Oregon as a home underdog vs. Washington, and got the $$$$ when Oregon won outright, 30-27, in overtime. But off that upset win, we will fade Oregon against the once-beaten (5-1) Cougars. A key factor for me in this game is that Washington State had last week off, so it will be well-rested. And it's awfully difficult to win back to back games vs. excellent teams (and especially if one's opponent is well rested). Indeed, since 1980, rested .750 (or better) NCAA Teams have cashed 67.7% since 1980 against foes off an upset win as a home underdog vs. another .750 (or better) foe. Take Washington State minus the points. Pac-12 Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-20-18 | Raptors v. Wizards +1 | Top | 117-113 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Wizards over the Toronto Raptors. The fans in Toronto must be giddy with excitement after the Kawhi Leonard acquisition. In two games, he's averaging 27.5 ppg, and also 11.5 rpg. But both of Toronto's two games this season were at home; tonight's game is on the road. And the Raptors will also be playing without rest. This is a horrific scheduling situation for the Raptors, as they will be playing without rest, and will also be playing their third game in four nights to start their season. Since 1996, unrested NBA favorites have cashed just 19% when opening the season with 3 games in 4 nights, and playing a rested foe. Take Washington. |
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10-20-18 | Nets v. Pacers -8 | Top | 112-132 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers minus the points over the Brooklyn Nets. The Pacers were blown out by 17 points last night in Milwaukee. But Indiana's back home tonight, and will be taking on a 1-1 Brooklyn squad that won at home last night vs. New York. The Pacers are a super 40-14 ATS off a loss by more than 12 points, if they're matched up against a .400 (or better) foe. And they're also 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings vs. the Nets. Lay the points with Indy. |
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10-20-18 | UTSA v. Southern Miss -16 | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 52 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles minus the points over Texas San Antonio. The Golden Eagles laid an egg at North Texas last week, as they scored just seven points in a 30-7 defeat. And that was Southern Miss's second straight loss (it also lost to SEC power Auburn, 24-13, two weeks ago). But after being installed as an underdog each of the past two weeks, Southern Miss will no doubt be thrilled to play the Roadrunners, here, in Hattiesburg on Saturday evening. After all, Southern Miss is a perfect 2-0 SU/ATS as double-digit favorites this season. Even better: over the last 39 seasons, in conference games, NCAA home favorites of 16+ points have covered 68% off conference defeats by 16+ points, if they also lost two games back. The Golden Eagles are also 60% ATS as double-digit favorites off a loss over the past 39 seasons. Take Southern Miss. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-20-18 | Wake Forest +10 v. Florida State | Top | 17-38 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 22 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons + the points over Florida St. Both of these two ACC Conference rivals are 3-3 this season. And each comes into this afternoon's game off straight-up losses. But the nature of those defeats could not be more different. Florida State fell by a mere point, 28-27, to Miami-Fla, while Wake Forest was walloped, 63-3, by Clemson. I look for Wake Forest to bounce back off that 60-point loss, as road underdogs have cashed 63.8% over the last 39 seasons if they lost by more than 40 points in their previous game, and were playing an opponent also off a loss. This system is already 3-0 this season, including a 45-20 win last week by Louisiana Monroe +6.5 over Coastal Carolina following Monroe's 70-21 blowout loss at the hands of Ole Miss. The Demon Deacons will bounce back in a similar fashion. Take Wake Forest. |
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10-20-18 | Western Michigan v. Central Michigan +4 | Top | 35-10 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 56 m | Show |
At 3 pm, our selection is on the Central Michigan Chippewas + the points over Western Michigan. The Chippewas are off 3 straight losses, and are winless in Mid-American Conference play. Moreover, they've failed to cover the point spread in each of their last two games. Meanwhile, the Broncos come into this afternoon's game with an undefeated Mid-American Conference record, and have won five straight, overall. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the red-hot Broncos against the ice-cold Chippewas. But consider that single-digit Mid-American Conference home underdogs, off back-to-back ATS losses, have covered 72.9% since November 1999, if they were off a straight-up loss, and their opponent was off a straight-up win. Grab the points with Central Michigan. MAC Game of the Year. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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10-20-18 | Utah State v. Wyoming +14.5 | Top | 24-16 | Win | 100 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
At 2:30 pm, our selection is on the Wyoming Cowboys + the points over Utah State. On the surface, these two teams are headed in opposite directions. The Aggies are 5-1, after winning each of their last five games. Even more impressive is the fact that the Aggies have covered the point spread in all six of their games. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are 2-5, on the heels of three straight losses. And they've failed to cover their last six games. Of course, the knee-jerk reaction might be to play on a team off 6 ATS wins vs. an opponent off 6 ATS losses. But as Lee Corso might say, "Not so fast." For example, consider that teams off 5+ ATS defeats have gone 60-36 ATS vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins! And teams off 6+ ATS wins have covered just six of 20 on the road vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS losses. Take Wyoming. |
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10-20-18 | Virginia v. Duke -6.5 | Top | 28-14 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 25 m | Show |
At 12:30, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils minus the points over Virginia. The Cavaliers upset Miami-Fla last week, 16-13, as a 7-point home underdog. We had a play on Virginia, so we were not surprised by the result. Virginia is now 4-2 on the season, and will look for a second straight upset, here, against the 6-1 Blue Devils. But I look for a letdown on Tobacco Road by Virginia, as .666 (or better) teams have cashed just 20% on the road vs. winning conference foes, if our road team was off an upset win, as a 7-point (or greater) underdog the previous week, over another conference foe. Take Duke. High Noon Hanging. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-20-18 | Oklahoma v. TCU +8.5 | Top | 52-27 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 54 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the TCU Horned Frogs + the points over Oklahoma. The Horned Frogs enter this game off an upset loss to Texas Tech (as a 7.5-point favorite), while Oklahoma also enters off an upset loss to Texas. The Horned Frogs have been installed as a sizable home underdog, notwithstanding the fact that their defense is more than 7 points better than Oklahoma's defense. And one of the things I love to do is play on .500 (or better) underdogs of +6.5 (or more) points, off an upset loss, that own a defense which gives up at least 6.5 points less than their opponent's defense. Such teams have covered 73.1% since 1982. Even better: TCU plays with revenge from two losses suffered at the hands of the Sooners last season (including a loss in the Big 12 Conference Championship game). But College teams playing at home with revenge from an NCAA post-season defeat have cashed a solid 60%. Grab the points with TCU. NCAA Payback Payday. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-19-18 | Warriors v. Jazz +3 | Top | 124-123 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz + the points over Golden State. The Jazz won all three meetings vs. Golden State last season after the calendar turned on January 1. And they won those three games by an average of 29.67 points per game, even though they were -- on average -- an underdog of 3 points in those games. I look for the Jazz to blow out Golden State tonight, as Game 2 road favorites are a soft 37-55-2 (40%) since 1990. Take Utah + the points. NBA Roadkill Winner. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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10-19-18 | Colorado State v. Boise State -24 | Top | 28-56 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Boise State Broncos minus the points over Colorado State. Boise comes into this game off rare (for it) back to back ATS losses. But the Broncos are 143-105 ATS their last 248. And they're 18-11 ATS off back to back ATS losses. Finally, they've won seven straight meetings vs. the Rams, and have gone 5-2 ATS in those games. Lay the points with Boise. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-19-18 | Kings +10.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 129-149 | Loss | -104 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings + the points over New Orleans. The Pelicans upset Houston, which was the team with the league's best record last season (65-17). Let's fade New Orleans at home on Friday, as NBA teams have cashed just 26.3% since 1990 as favorites off an upset win over an opponent which owned a .500 (or better) record the previous season. Take Sacramento + the points. NBA Road Warrior Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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