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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-28-16 | Columbia v. Miami (Fla) -23.5 | Top | 67-78 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Fla Hurricanes minus the points over the Columbia Lions. The Hurricanes have won 5 straight games to move to 9-2 on the season. But they're not having much success in Vegas, as they're a meager 2-7 ATS. But their last four pointspread defeats have all been close, and they only failed to cover by 2.5, 2, 0.5 and 6 points (an average of 2.75 ppg). We'll lay the wood with Miami on Wednesday, as the Hurricanes are a super 28-14 ATS on a 3-game (or worse) ATS losing streak. And Miami also falls into a 74-48 ATS system of mine which plays on certain .601 (or better) teams off consecutive pointspread losses. Take Miami. NCAA Hoops Roadkill Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-28-16 | West Virginia +3 v. Miami (Fla) | Top | 14-31 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
At 5:30 pm, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers + the points over Miami. We played against WVU in its last regular season game. The Mountaineers were favored by 17 vs. Baylor, but won by just three points, and failed to cover by 14 points. Meanwhile, Miami cashed its last regular season game with a 40-21 blowout of Duke, as a 16-point favorite. But teams off ATS wins in their most recent game have covered just 41% in the Bowls over the past 36 years, if they're matched up against an opponent which failed to cover by 14+ points in its previous game. These two schools actually have a long history vs. one another -- mainly when both were members of the Big East Conference. They've met 13 times over the previous 25 seasons, and the underdog has covered 10 of 13. Finally, Miami falls into negative 79-130 and 20-51 ATS systems of mine that play against certain Bowl teams off a double-digit win. Take the Mountaineers. NCAA Football Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-27-16 | Jazz -4.5 v. Lakers | Top | 102-100 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 21 m | Show |
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over the Los Angeles Lakers. Yesterday, we played against Cleveland following its upset win on Christmas Day. And we'll do the same thing, here, with the Lakers, as teams off wins on Christmas tend to have a letdown in their next game -- and especially off an upset win, if they're playing a foe off a SU loss, as they've covered just 28% over the past 27 years. Moreover, Los Angeles falls into negative 18-57, 71-127 and 47-88 ATS systems of mine that go against certain teams off upset wins when matched up against non-division foes off a SU loss. With the Jazz in off back to back upset losses to Sacramento and Toronto (and 3 losses overall), I look for Quin Snyder's men to take out their frustrations on the Lakers with a blowout win. Lay the points. NBA Game of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-27-16 | Washington State v. Minnesota +10.5 | Top | 12-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Golden Gophers + the points over Washington State. The dominant storyline, of course, for this game is the suspension of the Minnesota players. This happens to at least one team every Bowl season, and it's been my perception that the teams with the suspended player(s) rally together, and cover the pointspread more often than not. For example, in the Alamo Bowl last year, TCU played without QB Trevone Boykin, who was suspended for punching a policeman. The pointspread was severely adjusted due to his absence, but TCU didn't end up even needing the points, as back-up QB Bram Kohlhausen was spectacular (351 yds, 4 TDs) in leading the Frogs to an upset win. Similarly, the pointspread on this game was adjusted following the suspensions, and I'm more than happy to take the points with the Gophers. Washington State dropped its final two games of the season (at Colorado, and at home to Washington). But since 1984, favorites with a .600 (or better) record are a woeful 6-24 ATS off back to back losses to end their regular season, including 0-7 ATS when favored by more than 7 points. Take Minnesota. NCAA Football Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-27-16 | Wake Forest +12.5 v. Temple | Top | 34-26 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons + the points over Temple. It's true that Temple has a stellar season. The Owls were 10-3 straight-up, compared to Wake Forest's 6-6 record. But Temple head coach Matt Rhule left to take the same position at Baylor. That distraction will hurt the Owls in today's game. Additionally, the Demon Deacons lost their last three games of the season. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against Wake Forest today. But NCAA Football teams on a 3-game (or worse) losing streak have gone 65.2% ATS in the post-season since 1980 when getting more than 3 points. Take Wake Forest. College Football Underdog of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-27-16 | Army v. North Texas +11 | Top | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the North Texas Mean Green + the points over Army. These two teams met earlier this season, and North Texas won handily, 35-18, as 17.5-point underdogs. And that game was played at Army. This afternoon's game will be played in Dallas, just a stone's throw away from North Texas' campus in Denton. We'll grab the double-digits with North Texas, as College Football teams (like Army) with a .900 (or worse) record are an awful 36-57 ATS when favored by 10+ points in the post-season. Take North Texas. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-26-16 | Lions v. Cowboys -6 | Top | 21-42 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points over Detroit, as the Lions fall into negative 13-58 and 56-109 ATS systems of mine. Even worse for Detroit: last week, the Lions lost 17-6 to the New York Giants, while Dallas defeated Tampa Bay, 26-20. And winning teams (like Dallas), priced from -3 to -12 points, have cashed 17 straight games at home on Monday Night Football vs. non-division foes, if such foe lost its previous game by 7+ points. Take the Cowboys. NFL Elite Info Winner. Good luck as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-26-16 | Cavs v. Pistons -4 | Top | 90-106 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Pistons over the Cleveland Cavaliers. We played against the Cavs yesterday and suffered a tough loss (though we're still 24-6 our last 30 Basketball releases). We'll fade Cleveland once again on Monday, as I look for it to suffer a letdown off that emotional Christmas Day win. Indeed, road teams tend to do poorly following a Christmas Day win. Detroit falls into a super 82-47 ATS system of mine which plays on certain home teams off home losses, as well as a 62-28 ATS revenge system of mine, so we'll take the Pistons on Monday. NBA High Roller. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-26-16 | Miami (OH) +14.5 v. Mississippi State | Top | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 30 h 13 m | Show |
At 11 am, on Monday, our selection is on the Miami Ohio Red Hawks + the points over Mississippi State. Miss State comes into this game off a 35-point upset win over their rival, Ole Miss. But that shocking win only raised Miss State's record to a woeful 5-7 on the season. So, the Bulldogs, along with Hawaii, were one of the two teams to make a Bowl game with a losing record. But, unlike Hawaii (on which we played on Saturday), Mississippi State has been installed as a big favorite. But teams favored by 7+ points in a Bowl game have covered a paltry 40.0% over the past 37 years when matched up against an opponent with a superior record, including 0-2 already this season (Colo State, Louisiana Tech). That doesn't bode well for the Bulldogs on Monday morning. And neither does the fact that College Football teams, off a cover by 10+ points, are 37% ATS as Double-Digit Bowl Favorites since 1999.  Take Miami-Ohio. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-25-16 | Warriors -2.5 v. Cavs | Top | 108-109 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
At 2:35 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over the Cleveland Cavaliers. Last year, the Cavaliers upset the Warriors in the NBA Finals by winning Games 5, 6 and 7. To say that the Warriors will be looking to avenge that stunning upset is a monumental understatement. And teams playing with revenge from a Playoff loss have cashed 77% in Christmas Day games since 1991 if they're playing an opponent off a win. Even better: the Warriors are a spectacular 58-29 ATS vs. .678 (or better) foes over the past 5 seasons. Take the Warriors. NBA Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-24-16 | Middle Tennessee State v. Hawaii +7.5 | Top | 35-52 | Win | 100 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors + the points over Middle Tennessee State. This game will be played in Honolulu, at Aloha Field, so the Warriors will enjoy the home field advantage. And it's tough to go against a team playing at home in a bowl game, and especially if wasn't an awful team against the spread during the season (and Hawaii was not). Indeed, teams playing at home, with a .400 (or better) ATS season win percentage, have gone 8-0 ATS in the Bowls when getting more than 3 points, and have covered by an average of 13.44 ppg. Take Hawaii. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-24-16 | Cardinals +8 v. Seahawks | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals + the points over the Seattle Seahawks. Last week, the Seahawks demolished Los Angeles, 24-3, as a 15.5-point favorite, while Arizona lost, 48-41, at home to New Orleans. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against Arizona on the road, given that it's off back to back SU/ATS losses, and Seattle's off a 21-point win. But consider that the Seahawks are a miserable 15-42 ATS off a win by 21+ points if they weren't favored by more than 10 points in their current game. Moreover, teams (like Arizona) that lost a game in which they scored 37+ points, have rebounded to go 31-10 ATS in their next game, including 8-0 ATS when priced from +6 to +10 points. Take the Cardinals. NFL Road Warrior Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-24-16 | Chargers v. Browns +6 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 53 h 13 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over the San Diego Chargers. Admittedly, the Browns are a very bad football team. But this is still a great situation to take the points with Cleveland as a home underdog. It's Cleveland's final home game, after all. And bad NFL teams -- with win percentages less than .400 — are actually very good bets in their final home game. Since 1998, they've gone 98-74 ATS, including 40-17 ATS vs. other bad teams with win percentages less than .430 (and then 10-0-1 ATS in that subset since 2012).  Additionally, this is the first time in more than two years that the Chargers have been favored by more than 5 points, whether at home, or on the road! And on the road, when favored by 4 or more points, the Chargers have covered just once in nine games dating back to 2009. Take Cleveland. |
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12-24-16 | Titans v. Jaguars +5 | Top | 17-38 | Win | 100 | 53 h 13 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over the Tennessee Titans. Tennessee comes into this game off an upset win over Kansas City, and has been installed as a road favorite vs. the Jaguars. Unfortunately for the Titans, they're a poor 5-17 ATS off an upset win, including 1-8 ATS when laying more than 3 points. Jacksonville also falls into an 86-29 ATS late season system of mine. Take the points. |
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12-24-16 | Jets v. Patriots -17 | Top | 3-41 | Win | 100 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over the New York Jets. New York is 4-10 on the season following its 21-point home loss to the Dolphins a week ago, while New England is 12-2. This will be the Jets final road game of the year, and teams off a loss by more than 17 points, have gone 0-12 ATS in their final road games, when matched up against an opponent whose win percentage is at least .400 percentage points better. That doesn't bode well for the Flyboys on Saturday. And neither does the fact that New England is 26-10 ATS since 1980 in its final home game of the season, including 8-1 ATS if the Patriots' win percentage was at least .333 better than their opponent's. Finally, the Patriots fall into 34-5, 97-50 and 45-13 ATS systems of mine that go against certain teams off losses. Take New England. NFL Conference Favorite of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-24-16 | Redskins v. Bears +3 | Top | 41-21 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over the Washington Redskins. The Bears are 3-11, and won't be going to the Playoffs, but they're still competing at a high level. Over their last five games, Chicago's 1-4 straight-up, but a perfect 5-0 ATS. This is its final home game of the season, and I fully expect a great effort in front of its home faithful. Also, the Bears are 42-14 ATS at home off back to back losses, when not favored by more than three points. Take Chicago. NFL Underdog Shocker. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-24-16 | Dolphins v. Bills -4.5 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills minus the points over the Miami Dolphins as Buffalo falls into 56-20 and 33-11 ATS systems of mine. Also, this is Miami's final road game of the season, and NFL underdogs of more than 3 points, with a better season record than their opponent, are a dismal 37% ATS in their final road games, if their opponent is playing with revenge. With the Bills, indeed, playing with revenge from a 3-point loss at Miami earlier this season, we'll lay the points with Rex Ryan's club. Take Buffalo. NFL Payback Payday. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-23-16 | Ohio v. Troy -4 | Top | 23-28 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Troy State Trojans minus the points over Ohio. Both of these teams lost their most recent game. The Bobcats fell, 29-23, to Western Michigan, while Troy State lost, 28-24, as a 7-point favorite at Georgia Southern. But off that upset loss, we'll lay the points with the Trojans, as they're 8-0 ATS their last 8 off an upset loss. And they also fall into a 94-54 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off upset losses immediately before a bowl game. Take Troy State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-23-16 | Rutgers v. Seton Hall -10.5 | Top | 61-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Seton Hall Pirates minus the points over Rutgers, as the Pirates fall into 76-18, 128-50, and 281-172 ATS systems. Rutgers has lost just once this season (in 12 games), and comes into tonight's game off a 68-53 SU/ATS win against Fordham. Even worse for the Knights: they're 1-38 straight-up and 12-27 ATS in their last 39 games dressed up as an underdog. Meanwhile, the Pirates are 9-2 on the season following a 13-point win over Delaware on Saturday. And the Pirates are a terrific 48-28-1 ATS vs. .500 (or better) foes, including 21-7 ATS off a double-digit win. Take Seton Hall minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-23-16 | Louisiana Tech v. Navy +7 | Top | 48-45 | Win | 100 | 10 h 0 m | Show |
At 4:30 pm, our selection is on Navy + the points over Louisiana Tech. The Midshipmen got bit by the injury bug, which was the primary reason they lost their last two games -- vs. Temple in the American Athletic Conf. Title Game and, then, vs. Army a week later. Of course, the pointspread has been adjusted upward to account for the injuries, and I'm more than happy to grab the points with the underdog in this Armed Forces Bowl. Navy falls into a 48-22 ATS Bowl system of mine which plays on certain teams off back to back losses. Moreover, the Middies have been the best team in college football ATS when playing away from home over the past 25 years. Since 1991, Navy is 106-55 ATS away from home, including 26-12 ATS off back to back losses, and 74-33 ATS as an underdog. Take Navy + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-23-16 | Tulsa v. San Diego State -3.5 | Top | 63-82 | Win | 100 | 2 h 29 m | Show |
At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the San Diego State Aztecs minus the points over Tulsa, as SDSU falls into 137-71 and 100-43 ATS systems of mine. These two teams played last night, and Steve Fisher's crew won, 66-51, over Southern Mississippi. That was the 2nd straight game where the defensive-minded Aztecs held their opponent to 33% < field goal shooting. San Diego State has been terrific under coach Fisher when playing in the regular season without rest, as it's 17-3 SU its last 20 (and 12-4 ATS in those games). And they're a super 67-25 ATS off a win by 14+ points dating back to 2001, when not laying double-digits. Take SDSU. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-23-16 | Eastern Michigan +6 v. Old Dominion | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Eastern Michigan Eagles + the points over Old Dominion. Eastern Michigan falls into several of my favorite Bowl Systems, with records of 107-50, 121-67 and 136-89 ATS. Additionally, Eastern Michigan plays with revenge from a 38-34 home loss suffered to Old Dominion last season, and a 17-3 loss to the Monarchs the year before. But underdogs of more than 3 points are an awesome 64.2% ATS in the post-season since 1994 when playing with revenge! Take Eastern Michigan + the points. NCAA Football Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-22-16 | Pepperdine +9.5 v. Montana | Top | 70-71 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Pepperdine Waves + the points over Montana. These two teams met last year in Malibu, and the Waves were a 9-point home favorite. They got out to a 37-29 lead at halftime, before winning, 69-63. This year, though, we find Montana installed as the big favorite due, in large part, to the Grizzlies' 4 straight ATS wins and Pepperdine's six straight ATS losses. But my math indicates this line is inflated, and that's corroborated by the fact that Pepperdine falls into 94-35, 136-60 and 113-54 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off back to back ATS defeats. Take the points with Pepperdine. NCAA Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-22-16 | Giants v. Eagles +2.5 | Top | 19-24 | Win | 102 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
At 8:25 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles + the points over the NY Giants. Philly's dropped 5 in a row (though it covered the spread in last week's loss), while New York's won back to back games (both SU and ATS) vs. Dallas (10-7) and Detroit (17-6). But we'll fade the G-Men on this Thursday, as the Giants fall into several negative systems of mine. One is 118-65 ATS and fades certain teams that didn't give up 10 or more points in either of their two previous games. And another is 86-48 ATS, and that system plays on certain teams off 3+ losses vs. foes off back to back wins. The Eagles are 13-4 ATS the last 17 meetings with New York, including a perfect 7-0 ATS if the Eagles are off an ATS win. Take Philly. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-22-16 | Colorado State v. Idaho +15.5 | Top | 50-61 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Idaho Vandals + the points over the Colorado State Rams, as Idaho falls into 28-7, 38-16 and 16-0 ATS systems of mine that fade certain teams off upset wins (Colorado State stunned San Diego State, 63-31, as an 11.5-point underdog in its last game). Let's take a look at our 28-7 ATS angle. That goes against teams that won outright as underdogs of more than 10 points, if they scored 48+ in that victory. And if our 'play-against' team (here, Colorado State) has a W/L percentage of .583 (or better) than our 28-7 angle zooms to 12-1 ATS. The Vandals certainly will be the team most in the stands will be cheering for this evening, as the game will be played less than 300 miles from Idaho's main campus in Moscow. And we'll grab the points with Idaho. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-22-16 | UC-Santa Barbara +11.5 v. Nevada | Top | 66-67 | Win | 100 | 4 h 21 m | Show |
At 5:30 pm, our selection is on the UC Santa Barbara Gauchos + the points over Nevada. The Gauchos are off to a 1-8 start this season. Even worse: they've yet to cash at the betting window, with 7 straight ATS defeats. But that pointspread failure has created an overlay in today's line, and we'll grab the betting value. UCSB falls into two really good systems of mine that play on certain teams off ATS losses. One is 96-44 ATS since 1990, while the other is 76-42 ATS. Take the Gauchos. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-22-16 | Alabama Aandamp;M +21 v. Bowling Green | Top | 61-74 | Win | 100 | 1 h 41 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on Alabama A/M + the points over Bowling Green. In non-conference games, Mid American Conference teams are a dreadful 18-52 ATS as double digit favorites if they aren't a winning team. Take Alabama A&M. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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12-21-16 | Virginia v. California +2 | Top | 56-52 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
At 10 pm, our selection is on the California Golden Bears + the points over Virginia. These two teams met last season in Charlottesville, and the Cavaliers eked out a 1-point win, as a double-digit favorite. This year's game is on the West Coast, and we'll grab the points with the revenge-minded Bears, as they fall into a 101-57 ATS system of mine, which plays on certain home dogs, with strong records, that lost to their opponent in the previous meeting. California's 9-2 on the season, including a perfect 8-0 at home, and outscoring its foes by over 18 points per game at Haas Pavilion. Finally, the Bears have cashed 75% over the past 27 seasons at home when they've had an .800 (or better) record and played with revenge, including 86% vs. non-conference foes. Meanwhile, Virginia's an awful 67-91 ATS away from home when playing a revenge-minded team over the past 27 years. Take the points with California. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-21-16 | BYU v. Wyoming +11 | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
At 9 pm, in the Poinsettia Bowl, our selection is on the Wyoming Cowboys + the points over BYU. The Cougars have won four straight games, while Wyoming's dropped its last two. But none of the Cougars' last four opponents (Cincinnati, Southern Utah, Massachusetts, Utah State) qualified for a Bowl game. In contrast, Wyoming's two losses to end the season were against New Mexico and San Diego State. And both of those teams played in a Bowl game. One of the things I like to do in the post-season is wager on teams off back to back losses, if they're playing a favored opponent off 3+ wins. Since 1980, our underdogs in this situation have cashed 72% of the time! Take Wyoming + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-20-16 | Fresno State v. Oregon -14 | Top | 63-75 | Loss | -108 | 17 h 9 m | Show |
At 11 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks minus the points over Fresno State, as Oregon falls into a 128-49 ATS system of mine (which is also 14-0-1 its last 15). That angle plays against certain winning teams off back to back ATS wins. Overall, the Bulldogs have covered five straight entering this game. And, of course, that recent pointspread success will serve to keep our line reasonable, but the Bulldogs should get blown out tonight. Fresno's an awful 1-11 ATS since 2014 when playing a foe with an .800 (or better) win percentage. Meanwhile, Oregon's 26-8 ATS when matched up against foes with a win percentage between .395 and .795; 9-0 ATS when favored by double-digits against a foe off a SU/ATS win; and 20-6 ATS at home in non-conference games off back to back double-digit wins. Take Oregon. NCAA High Roller Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-20-16 | Memphis +7 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 31-51 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers + the points over Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers finished the season with a better record (both SU and ATS) than Memphis, but that largely was due to a much easier schedule. Western Kentucky benefited from playing in a weaker conference (Conference USA) than did Memphis (American Athletic). Indeed, the 2nd best team (Louisiana Tech) this season in Conference USA would have rated 6th or 7th this year in the American Athletic Conference. When the Hilltoppers stepped outside of their conference this season, they fared very poorly, with just one ATS win in five games. Even worse: in the regular season, they also failed to cover the spread against the teams rated #2 and #3 in power rating in Conference USA (LA Tech and Middle Tennessee St), though they did avenge their regular season defeat with a home win in the Conference USA Title game vs. LA Tech. Regardless, much of Western Kentucky's success this season was against very soft competition; they didn't cover the spread in any of their four games when they weren't favored by more than 11 points. Take Memphis + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-19-16 | Mavs v. Nuggets -8.5 | Top | 107-117 | Win | 100 | 18 h 34 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over the Dallas Mavericks. Last night, Dallas avenged a 31-point loss to the Sacramento Kings, suffered 11 days before, with a 20-point win, 99-79, as 1-point underdog. But now the Mavericks have to travel to the thin air of Denver to take on a revenge-minded Nuggets squad which lost to the Mavericks by 20 points just seven days ago. Unfortunately for the Mavericks, teams that avenge a 20-point or worse defeat have covered just 22% since 1990 in their next game, if the shoe is on the other foot, and it's their opponent which is playing with revenge from a 20-point (or worse) defeat. And, since losing last week to Dallas, the Nuggets have responded to win back to back games, with an offensive ppg of 129.5. A key factor has been a change in the starting lineup by coach Mike Malone, who inserted Wilson Chandler, and moved Jusuf Nurkic to the bench. The Nuggets also fall into an 83-34 ATS 'momentum' system of mine which plays on certain teams off back to back double-digit wins. Take Denver. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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12-19-16 | Panthers v. Redskins -7 | Top | 26-15 | Loss | -100 | 38 h 30 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Washington Redskins minus the points over Carolina. After a 3-game road trek at Dallas, Arizona and Philly, the Redskins return home for this game vs. Carolina. Washington's won its last four games at home (going 4-0 ATS), and falls into a super 38-11 ATS system of mine. What we want to do is play on any home team on Monday Night Football, if it's off back to back road games, and is playing a team with a worse record. Even better: if our team is playing with revenge, then our 38-11 angle zooms to 13-1 ATS. Last year, the Redskins were blown out, 44-16, at Carolina by the Panthers, so they'll definitely be looking to avenge that defeat on Monday. And Washington also falls into a 36-20 ATS system of mine which plays on certain revenge-minded teams that lost by 25+ points the previous year. Take Washington. Monday Night Game of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-19-16 | Eastern Michigan v. Syracuse -12 | Top | 57-105 | Win | 100 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Syracuse Orange minus the points over the Eastern Michigan Eagles. Both teams come into this game with identical 6-4 records. But EMU's been horrid on the road this season, as it's 1-4, with its only victory at Detroit, where it was favored by 9 points. Here, it's been installed as a double-digit underdog, and EMU is a dreadful 3-17-1 ATS as double-digit underdogs away from home vs. foes that outscore their opponents by 10+ points per game. The Orange suffered a rare home loss, but they're 69% ATS over the past 11 years at home off a SU home loss. Take Syracuse. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-19-16 | Central Michigan +13.5 v. Tulsa | Top | 10-55 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
At 2:30 pm, our selection is on the Central Michigan Chippewas + the points over Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane laid an egg (at least in Las Vegas) in its last game, as it was favored by 22.5, yet only won by three points vs. Cincinnati, 40-37. Now, Tulsa is laying double digits to Central Michigan, notwithstanding the fact that the Golden Hurricane's defense leaves much to be desired. Indeed, Tulsa's giving up 31.5 ppg (against opponents that score two points less, on average), and that number soars to 36.5 ppg away from home. Generally speaking, it's a real bad idea to lay points with bad defensive clubs in bowl games. For example, teams that give up 23+ ppg have covered just 25% of Bowl games if laying more than a TD to a team that scores at least 25 ppg. Grab the points with Central Michigan. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-18-16 | Bucs v. Cowboys -7 | Top | 20-26 | Loss | -100 | 64 h 9 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points over Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers won (and covered) their fifth straight game, last week, when they bested Drew Brees & the Saints, 16-11, as a 2.5-point favorite. Tampa's now 8-5, and has an excellent shot to make the Playoffs. But they'll face their stiffest test of the season this week when they have to take on the 11-2 Cowboys, in Texas. And Dallas should be in an ornery mood following its upset loss last week at New York. We'll take Dallas, as home teams off an upset loss on the road have covered 73.4% over the past 37 years vs. winning teams off 3+ ATS wins, including 13-1 ATS if our home team is playing with revenge. With Dallas, indeed, playing with revenge from a 10-6 loss at Tampa Bay last season, we'll lay the points with the Cowboys. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-18-16 | Western Michigan v. Washington -12 | Top | 86-92 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 52 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Washington Huskies minus the points over Western Michigan, as Washington falls into a 57-21 ATS system of mine. That angle plays on certain teams off ATS losses when matched up against foes off ATS wins. Western Michigan checks in off a SU/ATS home win vs. James Madison, while Washington was upset at home in its last game, 87-85, by Nevada. That loss was the Huskies' 4th straight overall (both SU and ATS). But I love U-Dub to bounce back on Sunday, as it's 17-6-1 ATS off 3 SU/ATS losses, while the Broncos are an awful 5-19 ATS off a pointspread win! Take Washington minus the points. NCAA Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-18-16 | Patriots v. Broncos +3 | Top | 16-3 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over the New England Patriots. These two teams met twice last season -- both times, here, in Denver. And the Broncos got the better of Tom Brady in each instance. In the regular season, the Broncos won 30-24, as a 3-point underdog. Then, in last year's playoffs, Denver upset the Patriots once again, 20-18, also as a 3-point home underdog. Fast forward to this Sunday, and New England is once again favored on the road. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the revenge-minded Patriots. But consider that, since 1981, road teams playing with revenge from an upset loss in the previous year's Playoffs have gone an awful 18-37 ATS. Even worse for New England: it falls into negative 29-63 and 57-113 ATS systems of mine based on its statistics through the first 13 games. Finally, Denver's a super 45-24 ATS at home vs. foes that have a scoring margin of +5.5 ppg (or better). Take Denver. NFL High Roller. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-18-16 | Raiders v. Chargers +2.5 | Top | 19-16 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Chargers + the points over Oakland. These two division rivals met in Oakland earlier this season, and the Raiders won that game, 34-31, as a 3.5-point favorite. We'll take the points with the Chargers this afternoon, as they fall into a super 57-25 ATS revenge system of mine, which plays on certain teams that lost earlier in the season to their opponent, provided they're not getting more than 3 points. Moreover, the Raiders are a woeful 31-61-1 ATS when not getting more than 3 points, including 15-52-1 ATS vs. foes not off a straight-up win! Finally, AFC West division home underdogs have been a very profitable 38-24-3 ATS when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season. Take San Diego. NFL Payback Payday! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-18-16 | Packers v. Bears +5.5 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 61 h 12 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over the Green Bay Packers. Green Bay played its best game of the season last week when it blew out Seattle, 38-10, as a 3-point home underdog, while the Bears lost a 3-point heartbreaker at Detroit. Now, to earn a playoff spot, the Packers will likely have to win their final three games — all against division opponents — and hope that Detroit also loses to either the Cowboys or Giants. Of course, if the Packers lose to their Windy City rivals this weekend, they’ll be all but eliminated from the Playoff chase. I’m going to take the points with the Bears, who will be playing this game with revenge from a loss at Green Bay earlier in the season. And underdogs of more than 6 points, from Chicago’s division, playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season have gone 29-6 ATS since 1993. Even better: NFC North division teams off a straight-up loss have gone 56-28 ATS vs. division rivals off a win. Finally, Green Bay falls into a negative 32% ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams off upset wins. Take Chicago. |
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12-18-16 | Browns +10 v. Bills | Top | 13-33 | Loss | -105 | 61 h 11 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over Buffalo. I'm well aware of Cleveland's miserable record this season. But it's hard to pass up double-digits this late in the season against a losing team like Buffalo. Indeed, non-winning teams (at Game 5 forward) have been dreadful when favored by 9+ points, if they lost their previous game straight-up. Since 1980, they've covered just 45 of 126 games. Take the points with the Browns. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-18-16 | Eagles v. Ravens -5.5 | Top | 26-27 | Loss | -110 | 61 h 11 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens minus the points over the Philadelphia Eagles. Last week, the Eagles dropped their fourth straight game (both SU and ATS) when they lost at home, 27-22, to division rival Washington. The Eagles will finish up with 2 home games vs. their other two division rivals, so this non-division game is their lone road game of the final four weeks. And when a team closes its schedule with 3 of its final four games at home, it generally gets beat pretty bad in its final road game of the season, as NFL teams in this situation have covered just 56 of 149 since 1980, including just 9 of 49 as underdogs (or PK) off an ATS loss. Take Baltimore. |
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12-18-16 | Colts +4 v. Vikings | Top | 34-6 | Win | 100 | 57 h 42 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts + the points over the Minnesota Vikings. The Colts were upset by their division rival, Houston, last Sunday. Indy was favored by 6.5, but lost at home, 22-17. I love Andrew Luck & Co. to bounce back on the road this Sunday, as they're 25-7 ATS off a straight-up loss, including 12-1, 92% ATS when getting more than 2 points! And Minny's covered just 12 of 33 vs. foes off an upset loss. Finally, .620 (or worse) NFL teams are 158-105 ATS since 1980 off an upset loss as a 6-point (or greater) favorite, if they're playing an opponent off a win. Take the Indianapolis Colts + the points. NFL Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-18-16 | Jaguars +5 v. Texans | Top | 20-21 | Win | 100 | 57 h 41 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over the Houston Texans. Houston went into Jacksonville, and upset the Jaguars, 24-21, last month. And Houston also upset another division rival -- Indianapolis -- last weekend. But I look for Jacksonville to turn the tables on the Texans on Sunday, as the Texans fall into a negative 16-55 ATS system of mine which goes against home favorites in divisional games off an upset over another division rival the previous week on the road. Even better: the Jaguars have lost their last seven games. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against them on the road. But road underdogs on a 7-game (or worse) losing streak have actually been terrific wagers over the past 27 years, as they've cashed 54 of 79 (68.3%). Take the points with the Jaguars. AFC South Game of the Year. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-17-16 | Dolphins v. Jets +2.5 | Top | 34-13 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 20 m | Show |
At 8:25 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over the Miami Dolphins. Miami will start Matt Moore under center, as QB Ryan Tannehill is out with a knee injury. Ironically, the last time Moore started a game was almost five years ago, in 2012, in a New Year's Day win over these same Jets. Last week, Moore completed three of five passes for 47 yards, in relief of Tannehill. And Miami upset the Arizona Cardinals, 26-23, as a home underdog. Unfortunately, that upset win has triggered a negative 68-140 ATS system of mine, which goes against certain teams off home upset wins. Meanwhile, the Jets went into San Francisco, and upset the 49ers last week, as a 3-point road dog. And one of the things I love to do is play on home underdogs (or PK) off upset wins on the road, when matched up against an opponent also off a win. Our home pups in this situation have gone 147-105 ATS since 1980. Take New York. AFC East Game of the Year! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-17-16 | Rockets v. Wolves +3.5 | Top | 111-109 | Win | 100 | 2 h 32 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota T-Wolves + the points over Houston. The Rockets have won 9 straight, but this extended success has triggered an 0-16 ATS system of mine tonight when they'll travel to Minnesota. And we'll gladly take the points with the T-Wolves, as Houston is a poor 42% ATS the past 27 years off back to back double digit wins when on the road vs. a foe off a SU win. The Rockets are also an awful 16-30 ATS vs. Minnesota if Houston's off a SU/ATS win. Take the T-Wolves. NBA Roadkill. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-17-16 | Marshall v. Akron -7.5 | Top | 88-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Akron Zips minus the points over Marshall. The Zips are a solid 7-3 on the season, and their only three losses came in their 3 games on an opponent's home court. Here, of course, Akron is playing at home, and we'll lay the points with the Zips, as they fall into a 280-170 ATS system of mine when plays on certain favorites with a winning record. Moreover, Marshall's been an terrible traveler over the years, and especially when installed as a road underdog priced from +1.5 to +12 points, as it's 40-85-2 ATS since 2001! But that's not the worst part. If Marshall's also off a pointspread win, then its 40-85-2 ATS record drops to 10-40-1 ATS. With the Thundering Herd, indeed, off a SU/ATS win over Toledo, we'll lay the points with Akron. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-17-16 | Rice v. Pittsburgh -9 | Top | 73-83 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Panthers minus the points over Rice. Both the Panthers and Owls come into tonight's game off back-to-back wins, and identical 8-2 records. In Vegas, Rice has gone 3-1 ATS, while Pitt is a game under .500, at 4-5 ATS. We'll take the home team Panthers tonight, as Rice is a woeful 16-44 ATS off back to back wins when playing an opponent with a .570 (or worse) pointspread win percentage, including 0-13 ATS its last 13. Take Pitt. NCAA Hoops Roadkill. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-17-16 | Chicago State v. DePaul -12.5 | Top | 61-109 | Win | 100 | 5 h 19 m | Show |
At 2 pm, our selection is on the DePaul Blue Demons minus the points over Chicago St. The Cougars threw a scare into Northwestern on Wednesday, as they lost 68-64, but covered as a 28-point underdog. But that was a rare ATS win as a big underdog for the Cougars, given that they've only covered 26% over the past 11 years when priced from +10 to +30 points. Meanwhile, DePaul's a stellar 13-0 SU and 10-3 ATS as double-digit favorites off a loss vs. non-conference foes. Take the Blue Demons. |
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12-17-16 | Texas-San Antonio +10.5 v. New Mexico | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 3 h 59 m | Show |
At 2 pm, our selection is on the Texas San Antonio Roadrunners over New Mexico. These two teams know each other well. They've played twice in the past four seasons, with each winning outright as an underdog on the other's home field. So that bodes well for Texas San Antonio this afternoon, as this game will be played at New Mexico's stadium, in Albuquerque. And I won't pass up the points with the Roadrunners, as they're a much better defensive club than New Mexico. The Lobos are giving up a whopping 32.4 ppg (more than 5 points more than their opponents would otherwise average). In contrast, Texas San Antonio has held its opponents to 2.5 ppg BELOW their offensive averages. It's true that Texas San Antonio comes into this game with just a 6-6 record (compared to 8-4 for New Mexico). But underdogs that didn't have a winning regular season have gone 37-20 ATS in the post-season vs. foes that did have a winning year. Take Texas San Antonio. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-17-16 | Cleveland State v. Ohio -12.5 | Top | 53-71 | Win | 100 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
At 2 pm, our selection is on the Ohio U. Bobcats minus the points over Cleveland St. The Vikings have been awful in this price range, as they're 2-14-1 ATS when getting between 9 and 16 points, including 0-9-1 ATS their last 10. Additionally, Ohio has dominated non-conference foes, here in Athens, as it's 45-22 ATS in the regular season since 1990. Take the Bobcats. |
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12-16-16 | Clippers -7 v. Heat | Top | 102-98 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 48 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers minus the points over the Miami Heat. Erik Spoelstra's men come into this home game off back to back upset wins to start this six-game home stand.  Miami upset the Wizards on Monday, and then did the same to the Pacers on Wednesday. But the Clippers are a much better team than either Washington or Indiana, and should blow out the Heat tonight. Los Angeles is 19-7 on the season, and .700 (or better) teams are 108-60 ATS since 1990 off a win, if they're playing a team off back to back upset wins. Even worse: Miami's covered just two of its last 11 off back to back wins. Take the Clippers. NBA Elite Info. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-16-16 | Florida Atlantic v. Miami (Fla) -19 | Top | 56-76 | Win | 100 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Florida Hurricanes minus the points over Florida Atlantic. The Hurricanes have lost four in a row to the pointspread, but we'll lay the points tonight when they take on the Florida Atlantic Owls. Miami has covered 70% over the past 20 seasons off 3+ pointspread defeats in a row, including, 88% ATS vs. losing teams. Meanwhile, the Owls are a dreadful 30.7% ATS the past 11 seasons vs. foes off 4+ ATS losses. Finally, the 'Canes fall into a 45-9 ATS system of mine which plays on certain favorites off back to back ATS defeats. Take Miami. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-15-16 | Blazers v. Nuggets -1 | Top | 120-132 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets over the Portland Trail Blazers. Portland comes into tonight's game off a 19-point win over OKC, while Denver's in off an upset loss to Dallas. This will be the 3rd meeting between these two Northwest division rivals this season, and the Nuggets lost meetings #1 and #2. But I love them to avenge those defeats tonight, as this will be Portland's 3rd game in four nights. And teams playing their 3rd game in four nights are an awful 6-23 ATS this season against revenge-minded foes, including 1-10 ATS off a win by 5+ points. Take Denver. NBA Payback Payday. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-14-16 | Pistons -4 v. Mavs | Top | 95-85 | Win | 100 | 16 h 39 m | Show |
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Pistons minus the points over the Dallas Mavericks. Detroit suffered a shocking loss, as a 12-point home favorite, to the Philly 76ers on Sunday. But I look for the Pistons to rebound tonight, as rested .500 (or better) teams off a home loss, in which they were favored by 9+ points, have covered 61% since 1990 on the road vs. foes off a win. Additionally, the Pistons 22-5 ATS since Dec. 2014 off an upset loss, including a perfect 5-0 ATS when favored by more than 3 points. Lay the points with Detroit. NBA Road Warrior. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-14-16 | Raptors -9 v. 76ers | Top | 123-114 | Push | 0 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over Philadelphia. The Raptors are playing extremely well this season. Indeed, if you throw out the three losses to Cleveland (a team which certainly has Toronto's number), then the Raptors are 17-4 SU and 16-4-1 ATS, with 10 straight pointspread wins going into tonight, covering the spread by an average of 5.47 ppg. The Raptors are a perfect 7-0 ATS when favored by more than 7 points this season, and they're also 5-0-1 ATS vs. foes off back to back wins. The 76ers come into tonight's game off two straight upset wins, but .300 (or worse) teams off back to back wins have covered just 43 of 110 games as home dogs (or PK) since 1990. Take Toronto. NBA High Roller. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-13-16 | Central Arkansas v. Michigan -25.5 | Top | 53-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Central Arkansas. Michigan lost its last game to the #2-ranked UCLA Bruins, but there's no great shame in that. I look for John Beilein's crew to bounce back today, as it falls into a 37-11 ATS system of mine which plays on certain favorites off an upset loss. Even better: Michigan is a super 47-26-1 ATS off a loss the past 8 seasons. Take the Wolverines. NCAA High Roller. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-12-16 | Blazers +9.5 v. Clippers | Top | 120-121 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers + the points over Los Angeles. Portland plays this game with revenge from a 31-point loss in November at Los Angeles, as well as an 8-point loss in its 2nd game of the season. And it's also off 3 SU/ATS losses, overall, coming into tonight. But Portland falls into a 65% ATS revenge system of mine which plays on certain teams with revenge from 30-point (or worse) defeats. Also, the Blazers have covered 80% ATS since 1980 as road underdogs of more than 8 points off back to back road losses. Take the points. |
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12-12-16 | Lakers v. Kings -7 | Top | 92-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings minus the points over the Los Angeles Lakers. Sacramento lost at home earlier this year to the Lakers, but I love them to avenge that defeat tonight. The Lakers have lost six straight games (both SU and ATS) -- giving up over 115 ppg in this stretch -- and also had to play last night (while Sacramento is rested). The Kings fall into a 146-97 ATS revenge system of mine, and I look for a blowout tonight at home. Take Sacramento. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-12-16 | Ravens v. Patriots -6 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 4 h 4 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over the Baltimore Ravens. At its core essence, sports gambling is a numbers game. So, one of the primary goals is to get the best number. This game opened at -8, and the line has come down to -6, so it's crossed the key NFL number of -7, and rests on a lesser key number (-6). We'll pull the trigger on the Patriots right here, as New England is 82-37-4 ATS in the regular season since Sept. 14, 2003 when not laying 7+ points, including 18-5 ATS in the last four weeks of the season. Take the Patriots. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-12-16 | Hornets -1 v. Pacers | Top | 94-110 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Charlotte Hornets over the Indiana Pacers. Indiana upset the Blazers, 118-111, on Saturday, but fall into a negative 112-189 ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams off upset wins when matched up against opponents off a SU loss. Charlotte has won and covered all four meetings in 2016 vs. the Pacers, and has only failed to cover one of the last 10 meetings. Take the Hornets. |
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12-11-16 | Saints +2 v. Bucs | Top | 11-16 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints against Tampa Bay. The Bucs won and covered their fourth straight game last week -- with their fourth straight upset win, no less -- in a 28-21 win at San Diego (as a 3-point dog). Meanwhile, New Orleans was upset as a 6.5-point favorite, at home, vs. Detroit. We'll take New Orleans this afternoon, as division underdogs of less than 6 points, off an upset loss as a favorite of more than 6 points, have cashed 76.4% over the past 37 years vs. foes off an upset win. Additionally, the Saints fall into 102-40, 146-94 and 149-65 ATS Systems of mine. Take New Orleans. NFC South Game of the Year! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-11-16 | Steelers v. Bills +3 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills + the points over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Last week, the Bills lost by two touchdowns to the 10-2 Oakland Raiders, as a 3-point underdog, but played better than the final score would indicate. The Bills amassed 382 yards on offense, while Oakland got just 17 more yards. But 2 turnovers by Buffalo were the difference in the ball game. The Bills are still in the Playoff hunt, with a 6-6 record, and three of their remaining four games at home. I love Buffalo as a home underdog, as home dogs off a double-digit loss and double-digit pointspread defeat, that gave up 37 or more points in their previous game, have gone 59-24 ATS vs. an opponent off a double-digit win. Even better: the Bills are a super 39-13 ATS at home off a straight-up and against-the-spread loss, if their opponent is off a win, including 28-5 ATS vs. non-division foes. Finally, the Steelers have lost their last eight road games, straight-up, off back to back wins, including 0-7 ATS their last seven. Take Buffalo + the points. |
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12-11-16 | Bengals v. Browns +5.5 | Top | 23-10 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over Cincinnati. There's no denying that the Browns are an awful football club, with 12 losses to open this season, and six straight pointspread defeats since October 23, when these two teams last met. That being said, I'm going to step in and grab the points with the home underdog Browns. The key factor for me is that Cleveland had its Bye week last week, so it's very well rested. And Home Dogs off a Bye have been money in the bank when getting 5.5 points, as they're 36-13 ATS. Take the Browns. |
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12-11-16 | Bears v. Lions -7 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions minus the points over Chicago. The Bears have covered three straight games, including a 26-6 upset win, at home, vs. the San Francisco 49ers last week. But I expect the Bears to come back down to earth this afternoon. After all, they're starting a rookie QB in Matt Barkley, who won't have very many weapons on hand. Chicago will be without WR Alshon Jeffery once again as he finishes up his 4-game suspension, as well as WR Eddie Royal, who has a toe injury. And WR Marquess Wilson (groin) is also questionable to play. The Lions lost to the Bears earlier this season on the road, but Detroit's a terrific 25-11 ATS at home when playing with same-season revenge. Take Detroit. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-11-16 | Chargers v. Panthers +1 | Top | 16-28 | Win | 102 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers over San Diego. The Panthers had their worst game of the season last week, when they were blown out, 40-7, at Seattle. Of course, that came as no surprise to us, as we had a huge play on the Seahawks as a touchdown favorite in that game. But we'll switch gears, and take Carolina back at home this afternoon. Indeed, NFL home teams not favored by 2+ points, off a road loss in which they gave up 40+ points, are 83-49-4 ATS their last 136. Moreover, the Panthers are 13-2-1 ATS their last 16 at home off an ATS defeat on the road. Take Carolina. NFL High Roller. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-10-16 | New Mexico v. New Mexico State -2 | Top | 71-84 | Win | 100 | 16 h 43 m | Show |
At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico State Aggies over New Mexico. These two teams met 22 days ago in Albuquerque, and the Lobos won, 72-59. We'll take the Aggies in the re-match, as New Mexico State falls into a 37-10 ATS revenge system of mine. Additionally, the Aggies are on a 5-game win streak, and home teams in this rivalry off back to back wins have covered 14 of 20, including 6-1 ATS when playing with revenge. Take New Mexico State. |
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12-10-16 | Northern Colorado v. Colorado State -14.5 | Top | 64-81 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Colorado State Rams minus the points over Northern Colorado. Last year, the Bears upset CSU, 73-64, as a 13-point underdog. But we'll lay the points with the revenge-minded Rams on this Saturday afternoon, as they fall into a 40-18 ATS system of mine. Moreover, the Rams are a dominant 29-12 ATS when priced as a favorite of more than 5 points, and playing with revenge (including 10-1 ATS vs. non-conference foes). Lay it. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-10-16 | Central Michigan v. Illinois -10 | Top | 73-92 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
At 3 pm, our selection is on the Illinois Illini minus the points over Central Michigan. Dating back 25 seasons, the Illini have been tremendous at home when priced from -5 to -16 points, as they're 84-56 ATS including 22-9 ATS vs. non-conference foes not off a SU loss. Also, Central Michigan has burned money when priced from +8.5 to +15 points vs foes off a SU win, as it's covered just 26 of 82 games since 1990, including 0-for-10 when the Chippewas had a winning record. Take Illinois minus the points. |
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12-08-16 | Raiders v. Chiefs -3 | Top | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
At 8:25 pm, our selection is on the KC Chiefs over the Oakland Raiders. Oakland's 10-2, on the heels of a 6-game win streak, but comes into this road game following a 3-game Home stand. Unfortunately for Jack Del Rio's crew, road teams off a win (and off 3 straight home games) are a soft 74-98 ATS since 1980, including 11-20 ATS as underdogs vs. foes off back to back wins. Additionally, home teams off an upset win on the road are 133-86 ATS vs. .750 (or better) foes since 1980. Take KC. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-07-16 | Warriors v. Clippers +4.5 | Top | 115-98 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 37 m | Show |
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers + the points over the Golden State Warriors. The Warriors have lost just three games this season, and sit a half-game atop the NBA standings -- just ahead of the 18-4 San Antonio Spurs. But if one were to nitpick Golden State's 18-3 record, it would be that it's come against a very weak slate of competition. Indeed, the Warriors have played just five games against teams currently ranked among the Top 12 in terms of margin of victory. And the Warriors have covered just one of those five games. That was their 122-96 blowout of Oklahoma City. But the Thunder were in a poor position in that game, as they had to play on the road without rest. In stark contrast is this game tonight. The Clippers are at home, and will be playing with the last 2 days off. San Antonio showed on opening night what a team could do vs. the Warriors with a big lineup. Well, the Clippers' front line of Blake Griffin, Marreese Speights and DeAndre Jordan rivals the Spurs. We'll grab the points with Los Angeles. |
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12-07-16 | Heat v. Hawks -8 | Top | 95-103 | Push | 0 | 16 h 37 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks minus the points over Miami. The Hawks have dropped 7 in a row, yet find themselves installed as a big favorite vs. Miami. Neither of those two facts will dissuade me, as favorites of -5 to -11.5 points off 6+ losses have covered 60.7% since 1990. Also, Atlanta's 20-9 ATS at home off 6+ defeats. Take the Hawks. |
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12-07-16 | Pistons v. Hornets -5.5 | Top | 77-87 | Win | 100 | 15 h 6 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Charlotte Hornets minus the points over Detroit. The Pistons upset the Hornets here at The Hive less than 10 days ago, 112-89. We'll lay the points with Steve Clifford's troops in this re-match, as .633 (or worse) teams are 97-57 ATS when favored, and playing with revenge from a 19-point (or worse) upset defeat. Moreover, Charlotte's 27-9 ATS when playing with revenge in the regular season from a loss earlier in the year by more than 10 points. Take the Hornets. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-07-16 | Celtics -3.5 v. Magic | Top | 117-87 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics over the Orlando Magic. Orlando's playing great basketball of late, as it comes into this game off four wins in five games, including 3 upsets (Spurs, Pistons, Wizards). Unfortunately, Orlando should suffer a letdown back home tonight, as it falls into a 41-87 ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams off back to back upset wins. Even worse: the Magic had to play last night, while Boston will be playing tonight's game with a day of rest. Finally, the Celtics are a jaw-dropping 71% ATS over the past 20 years on the road off a road defeat, if their foe is off back to back SU/ATS wins. Take Boston. NBA Road Warrior. |
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12-06-16 | Old Dominion v. Rhode Island -10 | Top | 39-51 | Win | 100 | 16 h 43 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Rhode Island Rams minus the points over Old Dominion. The Rams are 5-3 on the season, following upset losses at Valpo and Providence. And they also enter tonight's game on a 4-game pointspread losing streak. On the surface, this 4-game ATS losing streak might look bad, but the Rams were in each game, and only failed to cover the pointspread, on average, by 5.12 ppg. Tonight, they're back home, where they're 4-0 SU, with an average margin of victory just shy of 20 ppg. I love Rhode Island to blow out Old Dominion tonight, as URI will be looking to avenge an upset loss at Old Dominion last season, as a 1.5-point favorite. And URI is terrific 16-3 ATS at home when priced between -4 and -13 points, including a perfect 6-0 ATS when playing with revenge. Moreover, Rhode Island falls into 71-30 and 75-32 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off back to back upset defeats, as well as 53-20 and 35-11 ATS angles that play on certain teams off 4+ pointspread losses in a row. Additionally, ODU is a poor 5-12 ATS on the road vs. winning clubs. Take Rhode Island. NCAA Payback Payday! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-05-16 | Hornets -4 v. Mavs | Top | 109-101 | Win | 100 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Charlotte Hornets minus the points over the Dallas Mavericks. The Mavs come into tonight's game off a rare win -- 107-82 vs. Chicago -- and have covered four straight. Meanwhile, the Hornets are off a home loss to Minnesota, and have dropped three in a row to the spread. But I like the Hornets in the road favorite role tonight, as Dallas falls into a 112-187 ATS letdown system of mine, based on its upset win on Saturday. Take Charlotte. |
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12-05-16 | Grizzlies v. Pelicans -5.5 | Top | 110-108 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelican minus the points over the Memphis Grizzlies. This will be the 2nd meeting of the season between these two Southwest Division rivals. Memphis won Round 1, 89-83. But the Grizz are a decimated group right now. Mike Conley, Brandan Wright, Chandler Parsons, Vince Carter and Zach Randolph are all sidelined for various reasons. It's true that they've won their last two games, but those were at home vs. Orlando and the Lakers. Beating a revenge-minded Pelicans squad will be another matter, entirely. Indeed, New Orleans falls into a terrific 90-42 ATS revenge system of mine that plays on certain teams off a loss. Additionally, the Pelicans are 140-99 ATS at home when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season. With New Orleans in off back to back losses to the Clippers and Thunder, we'll look for a blowout win by the home team in the Crescent City tonight. Take New Orleans. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-05-16 | Thunder v. Hawks -2 | Top | 102-99 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks over the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Hawks have won just once in 10 games (2-8 ATS), and have lost by an average of 15 ppg. And their last two defeats were stunning, as they fell 121-85, as a 1.5-point home favorite vs. Detroit, and 128-84, as an 8.5-point road underdog against Toronto. In this 10-game stretch (since November 18), Atlanta has the worst Offensive Efficiency (91.8) and ninth-worst defense in the league. Notwithstanding this poor spate of play, I'm jumping on Atlanta tonight. Since 1990, NBA teams off 40-point (or worse) defeats have covered 70.4% of the time when they weren't an underdog of +2 or more points. With OKC having had to play last night, and Atlanta rested, we'll take the Hawks on Monday. NBA Roadkill play. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-05-16 | Wizards -5.5 v. Nets | Top | 118-113 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Washington Wizards minus the points over the Brooklyn Nets. The Wizards come into this game off back to back losses to the Spurs and Thunder, so the feeble Nets will be a welcome sight. Brooklyn's on a 1-9 SU and 2-7-1 ATS run, and has lost by 7+ points in all nine of those defeats. And the Wizards defeated the Nets by 9+ points in all three meetings last season (3-0 ATS). Washington also falls into 134-58 and 96-41 ATS systems of mine that play on certain road favorites off SU losses. Lay it. |
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12-05-16 | Stetson v. Iowa -20 | Top | 68-95 | Win | 100 | 6 h 50 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes minus the points over Stetson. To say that Iowa hit rock-bottom on Saturday, when it lost at home to Nebraska-Omaha, would be an understatement. Indeed, that was the Mavericks' first win in 12 games vs. a Big 10 member school. There's no doubt the Hawkeyes can score. They're averaging 85.6 ppg, on 45.1% FG shooting. But their defense and rebounding definitely need to improve. Luckily for Fran McCaffery tonight, his team will welcome a huge creampuff into Carver-Hawkeye Arena in the final tuneup before Iowa hosts rival Iowa State, on Thursday. Overall, the Hawkeyes have gone 0-5 ATS, but they fall into a great 23-1 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off 4+ ATS losses. And the Hawks are 53-35 ATS at home under McCaffery. Take Iowa. Below the Radar Blowout. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-04-16 | Panthers v. Seahawks -7 | Top | 7-40 | Win | 100 | 68 h 19 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Seahawks minus the points over Carolina. We played on the Panthers last week, and bettors either pushed or won on Carolina, as they lost 35-32 to the Raiders, as a +3 or +3.5-point underdog. Seattle wasn't as kind to its backers in Vegas last week, as they were upset, 14-5, by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, as a 5-point road favorite. I love the Seahawks to bounce back at home this week, as they'll be out for revenge against the foe which knocked them out of last year's Playoffs. And Carolina didn't just defeat Seattle once last season -- they also upset them here, in Seattle, 27-23, as a 7-point favorite. But the Seahawks are 18-9 ATS their last 27 when playing with revenge, including 4-0 ATS off an upset loss and 10-3 ATS at home. And NFL teams, playing with revenge from a playoff defeat, are an awesome 14-0 ATS at home vs. losing teams that didn't fail to cover the spread by more than 7 points in their previous game. Take Seattle. Perfect 10 Club play. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-04-16 | Redskins v. Cardinals -1 | Top | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 64 h 37 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals minus the points over the Washington Redskins. The Cardinals gave away their first game of the season, at home, to the New England Patriots (without Tom Brady + Rob Gronkowski), and that loss set the tone for the season. The Cardinals have yet to play up to their potential, have a 4-6-1 record, and own just one victory away from home this season. Indeed, they've lost their last five games against the spread, including a 38-19 loss at Atlanta last week. But even with all of these depressing stats, we'll lay the points with Arizona on Sunday. Actually, the fact that it's failed to cover its last five games has triggered a 95-47 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off 5+ pointspread defeats. And the fact that it lost in blowout fashion last week has put Arizona into terrific 72-23 and 81-33 ATS systems of mine. Finally, Arizona is a superb 49-25 ATS at home off back to back losses, including 22-4 ATS if the Cardinals didn't cover either of their two previous game, and the pointspread in the current game was 5 points or less. Take the Cardinals. NFL Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-04-16 | Bucs v. Chargers -3.5 | Top | 28-21 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 20 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Chargers minus the points over Tampa Bay. The Bucs come into this game with a 6-5 record after winning their last 3 games -- all as underdogs -- vs. Seattle, KC and Chicago. Meanwhile, the Chargers are 5-6, but did win, 21-13, at Houston last Sunday. The Chargers still have a remote chance of making the Playoffs, but really will need to win their last 5 games to qualify. The good news is that they have three of their last five games at home, and one of their two road games is against the winless Cleveland Browns. So, there's definitely a chance. We'll lay the points with the Chargers as losing teams favored over winning teams by more than 3 points have covered 59% over the past 37 years (at Week 5 forward). Additionally, teams off 3 straight upset wins have covered just 27% on the road vs. non-division foes dating back to 1980. Finally, winning teams, off an upset win as a home underdog, have covered just 96 of 275 games since 1990. Take San Diego. NFL High Roller. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-04-16 | Bills +3 v. Raiders | Top | 24-38 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills + the points over Oakland. The Bills are 6-5, and currently sit in 9th position in the AFC. So, they surely have a shot at the playoffs, but need to win on the road in Oakland to improve their odds. Oakland, meanwhile, is 9-2 following its 3-point win over the Panthers last Sunday, and is a virtual lock to make the Playoffs for the first time since losing to the Bucs in the Super Bowl 14 seasons ago. We'll grab the points with Buffalo, as it falls into a 62-28 ATS System of mine. Even better: the Raiders are an awful 37-71 ATS their last 108 at home, including 14-38 ATS vs. an opponent off a pointspread defeat (and 0-4 ATS this season)! And in "win situation games," where the line is 3 points or less, our 38-14 stat zooms to 17-3 ATS. Take the Bills. Dog Shocker. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-04-16 | Chiefs v. Falcons -4.5 | Top | 29-28 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 17 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons minus the points over Kansas City. Last week, we had a huge play on the KC Chiefs, and were rewarded with a 30-27 upset win over the defending Super Bowl champion Broncos. But "out of the frying pan, and into the fire," as they say, since KC now has to travel to Atlanta to take on the 7-4 Falcons. Last week, Atlanta blew out the Arizona Cardinals, 38-19, which bodes very well for it in this home game on Sunday. And that's because teams off upset wins over the defending Super Bowl champs have gone an awful 0-17 ATS on the road against foes off a SU/ATS win, if that foe's W/L percentage ranged from .400 to .700. Take the Falcons minus the points. Roadkill Play. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-03-16 | Denver v. Weber State -9 | Top | 57-55 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Weber St. Wildcats minus the points over Denver. The Pioneers won last year's meeting by a single point, 69-68, at home, as a 2.5-point underdog. But I love Weber St. to avenge that defeat tonight. The Pioneers are surrendering over 79 ppg, while Weber is scoring over 76. And revenge-minded teams have covered 63% of non-conference games over the past 27 years, if they're favored by 10 or less points at home, and they score 75+ ppg, while their foe gives up 79+ ppg. Also, Weber St. comes into this game off back to back SU/ATS losses to Iona and Buffalo, but the Wildcats are a super 13-6 ATS off back to back ATS defeats, and they also fall into a 64-19 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off 2 ATS losses in a row. Take Weber to blow out Denver. Elite Info play. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-03-16 | UNLV v. Arizona State -6.5 | Top | 73-97 | Win | 100 | 4 h 28 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Arizona State Sun Devils minus the points over UNLV. These two teams have met each of the past three years, and ASU has won all three of those games, and is also 3-0 ATS with the average pointspread win by 11 ppg. I think they'll make it 4 in a row with a blowout at home tonight. Yes, it's true that the Sun Devils were blown out by 46 points in their previous game, and have failed to cover each of their last five games. But ASU falls into a super 138-71 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off 4+ pointspread losses in a row. Additionally, the Sun Devils are scoring 83.3 ppg, which doesn't bode well for UNLV, as it's covered just 35.2% since 1990 as a road underdog vs. foes that score 83+ points per game. Finally, ASU is an awesome 17-3 ATS at home when priced from -4 to -10.5 points off back to back pointspread defeats. Take the Sun Devils. NCAA Roadkill play. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-03-16 | Baylor +17.5 v. West Virginia | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 54 h 1 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Baylor Bears + the points over the West Virginia Mountaineers. Yes, it's true that Baylor has lost its last five games, both SU and ATS. So, the knee-jerk reaction might be to play against Jim Grobe's troops in their final game of the season, on the road, in Morgantown, against the 9-2 Mountaineers. But consider that, over the past 26 years, College Football teams have covered 67% of the time off 3 SU/ATS losses in their final game vs. .600 (or better) foes off a win. We saw an example of this just last weekend when Syracuse (+25), which had lost its previous 3 games by an average of 33.33 ppg, lost to Pitt by just 15 points to cover the spread. I like Baylor to cover this inflated pointspread as well, as it falls into 124-75, 65-29 and 62-29 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off blowout losses. Take the Bears + the points. Dog Shocker! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-03-16 | UL-Lafayette v. UL-Monroe +7.5 | Top | 30-3 | Loss | -135 | 39 h 25 m | Show |
At 3 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana Monroe Warhawks + the points over Louisiana Lafayette. Both teams come into this game on 3-game ATS win streaks. Monroe did lose its last game, straight-up, 42-17, at Appalachian St, but covered the 26.5-point spread. Meanwhile, the Rajin' Cajuns pulled a big upset in their last game, as they won outright, 24-19, as a 6-point home underdog to Arkansas State. That upset win sets up the Cajuns in several negative 'letdown' systems of mine, with records of 123-194, 67-114 and 54-107 ATS. Those angles would be enough for me to pull the trigger on the Warhawks, but there are two other reason I love the home underdog on Saturday. One is that Louisiana Monroe last played two weeks ago, so it will be very well-rested for this rivalry game. And rested teams off a loss have covered 79% since 1980 as underdogs (or PK) vs. foes off an upset win that are playing their final game of the season. And the other reason I love Monroe is that the underdog in this rivalry has covered 15 of 18, including a perfect 6-0 ATS when getting 7+ points, and a perfect 8-0 ATS off a loss by more than two touchdowns. Take Louisiana Monroe + the points. Rivalry Underdog of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-03-16 | Nebraska-Omaha v. Iowa -9 | Top | 98-89 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
At 2 pm, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes minus the points over Nebraska-Omaha. Both the Hawkeyes and Mavericks come into this game at Carver-Hawkeye Arena with 3-4 records. But in Vegas, the Hawkeyes are winless with an 0-4 mark. I fully expect that to change this afternoon, as Iowa falls into several of my best systems, with records of 21-0, 43-8 and 52-18 ATS. Those all play on certain teams off ATS losses vs. foes not off an ATS defeat. Also, if one scrutinizes the Iowa schedule, one sees that all four of its SU and ATS losses were against teams from power conferences (Seton Hall, Virginia, Memphis, Notre Dame). Iowa is actually 3-0 SU (and 0-0 ATS) vs. foes not from power conferences with blowout wins over Kennesaw St. (91-74), Savannah St. (116-84) and Texas Rio Grande Valley (95-67). So, this will be the first pointspread posted this season on an Iowa game which involved a team not on the regular Vegas board. But Iowa's 0-4 ATS mark has given us decent pointspread value by my numbers. Finally, Iowa's cashed a whopping 67% over the past 27 years as a favorite of more than 2 points, if it's off 3+ pointspread defeats. Take the Hawkeyes. NCAA Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-03-16 | Oklahoma State v. Oklahoma -11 | Top | 20-38 | Win | 100 | 52 h 48 m | Show |
At 12:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Oklahoma Sooners minus the points over Oklahoma State. This game will decide the Big 12 Championship, as both teams come into the game with 9-2 records, overall, and 8-0 (Oklahoma) and 7-1 (Oklahoma St.) conference records. We'll lay the points with the Sooners, as they fall into 'momentum' systems of mine, with records of 294-201, 168-104 and 145-75 ATS, following their 56-28 win at West Virginia in their last game. and their 45-24 win over Baylor two games back. Those three angles all play on certain teams off big, back to back SU/ATS wins. Even better: Oklahoma State is a dreadful 16-36 ATS since 1999 when priced from +6 to +19 points, including 3-8 ATS vs. the Sooners, while the Sooners are an awesome 28-11-1 ATS as a home favorite, in the same price range (-6 to -19), in the same period. Take the Sooners. Big 12 Conference Game of the Year. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-03-16 | UCLA v. Kentucky -10.5 | Top | 97-92 | Loss | -113 | 1 h 50 m | Show |
At 12:30 pm, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats minus the points over UCLA. These two teams met at Pauley Pavilion last year, and the Bruins upset the Wildcats, 87-77, as 6.5-point underdogs. But I look for the Wildcats to avenge that defeat with a win in Lexington this afternoon, as Kentucky falls into a great 133-62 ATS system of mine. This projects to be a very high-scoring game, as both teams like to get up and down the court (Kentucky's averaging 95.6, while UCLA is averaging 97.0). Unfortunately for the Bruins, they're 9-24 ATS vs. foes that average 80+ ppg. Take the Wildcats. Payback Payday. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-03-16 | Temple v. Navy -3 | Top | 34-10 | Loss | -105 | 50 h 60 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Navy Midshipmen minus the points over Temple, as it's backed by 157-87, 135-54 and 37-9 ATS systems of mine. The Midshipmen have won 4 straight games, including two blowouts on the road in their last two (75-31 over SMU; 66-31 over ECU). I won't step in front of this freight train at home, as single-digit home favorites have covered 62% over the past 37 years after scoring 60+ points in their previous game (including 3-1 ATS this season). And, yes, it's true that Temple has won its last six games, and covered its last 11, on the heels of a defense which has given up just 23 points over its last four games (and 17.8 ppg on the season). But teams with a better defense (more than 12 ppg better than their foe) have actually been big-time money-burners in conference title games, as they're 0-7 ATS. Take Navy. High Noon Hanging. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-02-16 | Ohio +19 v. Western Michigan | Top | 23-29 | Win | 100 | 59 h 48 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Ohio U. Bobcats + the points over Western Michigan. The Broncos have yet to lose straight-up on the field this season, as they're a perfect 12-0. They're also 9-3 ATS. Meanwhile, Ohio is 8-4 SU and 6-6 ATS. But we'll take the double-digits with Ohio, as Western Michigan falls into negative 8-37 and 69-122 ATS systems of mine that fade certain unbeaten teams late in the season. Even worse for Western Michigan: Mid-American Conference teams with a win percentage greater than .800 have been awful in the Title game vs. foes that don't have a win percentage greater than .800, as they've covered just 1 of 10 games since 1998, including two outright upset losses as 15-point (Ball St, 2008) and 20-point (N. Illinois, 2010) favorites. Yikes! Take Ohio + the points. MAC Conference Game of the Year! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-01-16 | Cowboys v. Vikings +3.5 | Top | 17-15 | Win | 100 | 37 h 31 m | Show |
At 8:25 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings + the points over Dallas. Minnesota's having a decent season, as it's 6-5 SU/ATS. The Cowboys, though, are having a great season, as they have not lost since Week 1. But it's my opinion that the tariff has gotten too high on the road for them, on Thursday, against this solid Vikings team. We'll grab the points, as we note that NFL teams with a win percentage greater than .900, have covered 0 of 12 games, at Week 12 forward, on the road against foes with a pointspread win percentage between .540 and 690. Take the Vikings. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-30-16 | Pacers v. Blazers -7.5 | Top | 109-131 | Win | 100 | 15 h 3 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over Indiana. Indiana's off back to back wins, with a 91-70 blowout of the Clippers, as a 12-point home underdog on Sunday, and a 118-97 thrashing of the Nets, as a 5.5-point favorite, on Friday. We'll fade Indiana tonight, as road teams are 9-29 ATS off a cover by more than 26 points in their previous game, if they also covered by 15+ points two games back. Take the Trail Blazers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-30-16 | North Carolina v. Indiana +4 | Top | 67-76 | Win | 100 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Hoosiers + the points over North Carolina. These teams met in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament last March, and the Tar Heels won, 105-86. We'll take the Hoosiers as a home dog tonight, as they fall into a 30-11 ATS Tourney revenge system of mine which plays on certain home dogs (or PK) playing with revenge from a post-season loss the previous year. Take Indiana. |
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11-30-16 | Hawks -5.5 v. Suns | Top | 107-109 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks minus the points over Phoenix. The Hawks are mired in a 3-game losing streak, but should rebound with a win vs. Phoenix on Wednesday. Since 1990, winning NBA teams are 88-59 ATS off 3+ losses, if they're favored on the road vs. non-division foes. Take Atlanta. |
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11-30-16 | SMU v. Boise State +6 | Top | 62-71 | Win | 100 | 14 h 0 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Boise State Broncos + the points over SMU. Boise's won 35 of its last 40 home games, straight-up, yet finds itself installed as a sizable underdog at home, tonight. Let's take the points with the Broncos, as home dogs of more than 5 points, with wins in at least 35 of their previous 40 home games, have cashed 65% since 1990. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-30-16 | Spurs -9 v. Mavs | Top | 94-87 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Dallas. We played against San Antone at home last night, and got the $$$ with the Orlando Magic, who blew out the Spurs as a double-digit underdog. Now, for Wednesday, we'll switch gears and play on Gregg Popovich's crew, as San Antonio is 55-24 ATS as a road favorite of -4+ points off a loss, if its opponent's win percentage is .450 or less. Take San Antone. |
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