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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-17-18 | Bills +3.5 v. Browns | Top | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 16 h 29 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, on the NFL Network, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills + the points over Cleveland. The Bills were upset at home, 28-23, last week by the Carolina Panthers, while the Browns blew out the Giants, 20-10, in the Meadowlands. I love the Bills to bounce back on the road, as road underdogs have covered 63.1% ATS since 1983 off an upset home loss, if their opponent was off a double-digit win. Take Buffalo. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-16-18 | Jets v. Redskins | Top | 13-15 | Win | 100 | 39 h 50 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Washington Redskins over the New York Jets. The Jets shut out Atlanta last week, 17-0, while Washington lost at New England, 26-17. We'll look for Washington to bounce back, as teams playing their home opener, off a SU/ATS loss to open the preseason, have cashed 60.4% the past 35 years vs. foes off a preseason-opening SU/ATS home win. Take the Redskins. NFL High Roller Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-16-18 | Eagles +4 v. Patriots | Top | 20-37 | Loss | -118 | 38 h 22 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles + the points over New England. This, of course, is a rematch of last season's Super Bowl, won by the Eagles, 41-33. We had big plays on the Eagles, as well as the Over in that game, and easily won both. Here, we'll just focus on the side selection, and will grab the points with the Super Bowl champs. Philly actually lost its Preseason opener last week when it fell, 31-14, at home to the Steelers. Meanwhile, the Patriots opened with a home win vs. the Redskins, 26-17. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the Patriots for its revenge motive. But consider that defending Super Bowl champs have covered 90% as an underdog the past 35 Preseasons off a straight-up loss. Take the Eagles. NFL Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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08-09-18 | Bears +2.5 v. Bengals | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -110 | 86 h 26 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over Cincinnati. The Bears opened their Preseason last week in the Hall of Fame match-up vs. Baltimore, and fell by a 17-16 score to the Ravens. But just having played a Preseason game is a big advantage against NFL teams which have still yet to play a preseason contest. Since 1983, such teams with a game in hand have cashed 59.45% of the time. Take Chicago + the points. NFL Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-15-18 | Croatia v. France | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 24 h 51 m | Show |
At 11:00 am, on Sunday, our selection is on France to defeat Croatia, and lift the trophy (at -230 odds). Thus, our wager will win, if France succeeds in regulation, extra time, or on penalty kicks. The challenge ahead for Croatia is daunting after surviving its third straight match which required extra time. The Vatreni displayed plenty of grit to rally from an early 1-0 deficit to England to force extra by scoring a tying goal with under 25 minutes to go, and the winning goal in the 109th minute. But how much does this older team have left in the tank? With three straight contests requiring extra time in the knockout stage, the Vatreni have essentially played an extra game than the French (who also have the benefit of an extra day of rest for this championship match). But even if this wasn't the case, I was going to favor the winner of the France/Belgium game against the victor of the England/Croatia match. Les Bleus also are more youthful -- with an average age of 26 -- and they have a clean bill of health. It will be hard for the Croatians to slow down the 19-year-old sensation Kylian Mbappe, whose explosive speed will severely test their midfield and defense. Yet while Mbappe and fellow midfielder Paul Pogba receive most of the attention on this French team, it is midfielder N’Golo Kante who is France's Most Valuable Player. Kante was the key piece for two separate English Premier League championship teams for Chelsea and Leicester City with his ball-hawking and defensive skills. He will be up to the task of neutralizing Croatian star midfielder Luka Modric. So, the talent edge certainly goes to France (though Croatia has a slight edge in the midfield overall), especiall considering their back line and goalie Hugo Lloris (who is simply one of the top keepers in the world). Finally, the road for the French to get here has been more difficult with victories over Argentina, Uruguay, and then Belgium in the semifinals. In contrast, Croatia has needed extra-time to defeat Denmark, Russia and then England which are a level of class below what Les Bleus have overcome. Take France. As always, good luck....Al McMordie. |
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07-14-18 | England v. Belgium | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
At 10:00 am, on Saturday, our selection is on Belgium PK, at --170 odds, to win the match (whether in regulation, extra time, or on penalty kicks). Both these teams will have to pick themselves up from deflating losses in the semifinals for this consolation 3rd place match. However, it will likely be more difficult for England to recover. Not only do the Three Lions have one less day to rest and prepare for this match but they also have to rebound from a grueling physical and emotional 2-1 loss to Croatia that needed the thirty minutes of extra time to resolve. The Three Lions had victory in their grasp for much of that match with Kieran Trippier scoring five minutes in, but they lost steam in the second half and eventually conceded the tying goal in the 68th minute. England looked like it would have the opportunity to win in a shootout but its hearts were broken when Croatia scored the winning goal with just nine minutes left in extra time. Manager Gareth Southgate has indicated that he will rest many of his regulars who are dealing with injuries (or who are simply just gassed from the physical demands of that match on Wednesday). At the very least, this sounds like Trippier, as well as midfield cogs Ashley Young and Jordan Henderson, as candidates to not take the pitch. So, Belgium should be more fit to win this match. Moreover, Manager Roberto Martinez has declared that his team will not be taking this opportunity lightly: "I am not going to make changes now to give certain players opportunities....Any change will be to make the team stronger." A victory for the Red Devils today will result in the top finish in Belgium history at a World Cup (besting its 4th place showing in the 1986 games in Mexico), and that is of great importance to this team. Take Belgium to be victorious (at --170 odds). As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-06-18 | France v. Uruguay +0.5 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -106 | 31 h 56 m | Show |
At 10:00 am, on Friday, our selection is on Uruguay plus 0.5 goals vs. France, at -106 odds. France earned a big win last wekend when it defeated Argentina and eliminated Lionel Messi from this World Cup with a 4-3 victory. However, it may be difficult for the French to maintain that high level of focus when facing a lesser-ranked South American team in the Uruguayans. Additionally, Les Bleus showed vulnerabilities against a struggling Argentina side. France only controlled possession for 41% of that match. Concerns regarding their young talent on their defensive back line remain after they allowed three goals to Messi & Co., which doubled the goal count for Argentina in this World Cup. On the offensive side, France's final two goals were scored in spectacular fashion by its 19-year-old phenom Kylian Mbappe. But Uruguay will not make the same mistakes that Argentina made that allowed the speedster to exploit them in counter-attacks. La Celeste has won all four of its matches, including a 2-1 victory over a Portugal team which defeated the French in Paris two years ago in the 2016 Euro Finals. Uruguay prioritizes defensive tactics while being led by an outstanding duo in Diego Godin and Jose Maria Gimenez, who play together for Atletico Madrid. Tellingly, La Celeste has allowed just one goal in its four games in this tournament. It's true that Uruguay will be without Edinson Cavani, who scored two spectacular goals against Portugal before succumbing to a hamstring injury. But it still has its top striker in Luis Suarez who did take part in training this week after also suffering a knock. With an elite defense, and Suarez leading its counter-attack, Uruguay still has what it takes to pull the upset or extend this match to extra time after 90 regulation minutes. Take Uruguay plus the +0.5 goal. WORLD CUP GAME OF THE WEEK! As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-03-18 | England -0.25 v. Colombia | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -62.5 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
At 2:00 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on England minus the -0.5 goal vs. Colombia. This is a very favorable match-up for the Three Lions since Colombia plays a direct style and will attempt to push the pace. But England is at its best when counterattacking opponents that prioritize possession of the ball. Colombia clinched a spot in the knockout stage with a 1-0 victory over Senegal on Thursday but that win came at a significant cost. Its 2014 World Cup Golden Boot winner, James Rodriguez, left that match after 31 minutes with an injury to his right leg. This is a different injury than the left calf injury which kept him from starting in its opening match loss to Japan. While tests on Saturday indicated that Rodriguez only has swelling and did not suffer a muscle tear in his right leg, he remains in doubt to play. Manager Jose Pekerman told the media he is “extremely concerned” about Rodriguez’s status. But even if Rodriguez can take the pitch, his effectiveness has to be questioned at this point with both legs hampered. Los Cafeteros reached the quarterfinals of the 2014 World Cup but that including a fortunate draw in the first elimination match where they played Uruguay who was without Luis Suarez (suspended for biting). Colombia has developed a reputation defeating lesser opponents while failing to achieve good results against the better teams in the world. In its qualifying matches, it lost to Brazil, Uruguay, Chile, and Argentina twice. Even worse for Colombia: England will be quite fresh for this challenge after manager Gareth Southgate rested eight of his regular starters on Thursday in a meaningless 1-0 loss to Belgium. The Three Lions' Harry Kane has scored five times already in two matches, and England also leads all teams in this tournament with six goals from set pieces. Lay the 0.5 goals with England. World Cup Soccer High Roller Winner! As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-01-18 | Denmark v. Croatia -0.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -130 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
At 2:00 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on Croatia minus 0.5 goals vs. Denmark. Croatia has been one of the most impressive teams in the World Cup by winning all three of its matches in a group many observers believed to be the most challenging. Argentina was widely considered one of the top five teams in the world. Iceland had come off a Quarterfinals appearance in the 2016 Euro which included a victory over England and a draw with the eventual champion in Portugal. And Nigeria had a roster many considered to be more talented than the group which made the knockout stage in the 2014 World Cup. Yet Croatia outscored those three teams by a 7 to 1 margin in its three victories. Its 2-1 victory over Iceland on Tuesday was its narrowest win, but manager Zlatko Dalic did make nine changes for that match to rest some of his key players. Talent has never been the question for this national team; instead, stability and team cohesion have been the obstacles for Croatia since making the Semifinals in the 1998 World Cup. Its opponent this afternoon -- Denmark -- rates as a solid, if unspectacular squad. The Danish Dynamite finished in second place in its group with a win over Peru, and draws against Australia and France (which just knocked out Argentina, yesterday). But its 0-0 draw with Les Bleus on Tuesday needs to be taken with a grain of salt since France rested six of its key starters. Lay the 0.5 goals with Croatia. Elite Info Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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06-30-18 | Portugal v. Uruguay | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 20 h 50 m | Show |
At 2:00 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on Uruguay Pk'em (on the goal-line) vs. Portugal, at -111 odds (at the time of this writing). There will not be a lack of superstars on the pitch in this battle. Portugal is led by Cristiano Ronaldo, who is perhaps the best player in the world right now after leading Real Madrid to three straight Champions League titles. Ronaldo also led the Selecao to the 2016 Euro championship. But Portugal was fortunate to achieve those results considering that it was the semifinals before they finally won a match in regulation time. These concerns have not abated this summer for this aging group which lacks complementary star talent to Ronaldo. The Selecao needed every bit of his superpowers with his hat-trick helping them eke out a 3-3 draw with Spain. Portugal was then unconvincing in a 1-0 win over Morocco before it struggled against Iran to hold on to a 1-1 draw. With its 1-1-1 record and just a +1 goal differential, those results pale in comparison to Uruguay's +5 goal differential along with its perfect 3-0 mark. La Celeste played its best match of the tournament on Monday when it crushed Russia by a 3-0 score. That match demonstrated the balance Uruguay has on the pitch with Luis Suarez and Edinson Cavani each scoring goals. Indeed, both forwards have registered goals in each of the last three World Cups. However, what makes this team so dangerous is its ability to play lock-down defense. Led by perhaps the best center back duo in the world in Atletico Madrid's Diego Godin and Jose Maria Gimenez, Uruguay has not allowed a goal yet in this tournament. And it has allowed just six shots on target in its three matches. Ronaldo is always a threat but he will have his hands full with La Celeste. Take Uruguay as a Pk'em on the goal-line. World Cup Soccer Elite Info Winner! As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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06-27-18 | Costa Rica v. Switzerland -0.5 | Top | 2-2 | Loss | -145 | 36 h 50 m | Show |
At 2:00 pm, on Wednesday, our selection is on Switzerland minus 0.5 goals vs. Costa Rica. Switzerland needs just a draw in its third match in group stage play to advance to the knockout stage. But a victory could be even better as it might put them in position to win first place in Group E which would give them a better seed in the next round. Nati Swiss received very good news Monday afternoon when FIFA declined to suspend two of its players, Xherdan Shaqiri and Granit Xhaka, for making possible political gestures after they both scored goals in the 2-1 victory over Serbia last Thursday. Switzerland is unbeaten in its last eight matches, as this team is playing with both confidence and cohesion. On Wednesday, they'll face a Costa Rica team which has been eliminated from reaching the knockout stage after it lost by a 2-0 score to Brazil. That was a heartbreaking loss for Los Ticos as they allowed two goals in the stoppage time at the end of the game, which spoiled what was looking like an impressive 0-0 draw with the FIFA's #1-ranked team. This will be the final match in World Cup play for a golden generation of Costa Rican players which led the team to the quarterfinals in 2014. However, this is also an aging team which has yet to score in this tournament. They managed only four shots (with none on target) vs. Brazil while only controlling possession in 34% of that match. Los Ticos has also failed to win its last four matches against European teams in the World Cup, with three of those ending in losses. Costa Rica will no doubt want to play the role of spoiler but too many of its key players are past their prime. Lay the 0.5 goals with Switzerland. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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06-26-18 | Croatia v. Iceland +0.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -130 | 35 h 29 m | Show |
At 2:00 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on Iceland +0.5 goals vs. Croatia, at -135 odds. The Croatian national team has already qualified for the knockout stage as it won its second straight match in this World Cup with its 3-0 win over Argentina on Thursday. Even with a loss to the Viking Boys, the Vatreni are all but assured to be the top seed from Group D given its +5 goal differential (it also defeated Nigeria 2-0 in its first match). Thus, it would take Nigeria crushing Argentina (or Croatia getting blown out by Iceland) to threaten this dominant edge in the goal differential tie-breaker if both teams end with six points apiece. Because of this, manager Zlatko Dalic may choose to rest some of his key players (or substitute them out early in the match) with matters likely in hand. At the very least, Croatia will be satisfied with a draw since that would clinch first place along with the preferred seeding in the round of 16. In contrast, Iceland needs the three points that come with a victory to keep its knockout stage dream alive after it lost to Nigeria by a 2-0 score on Friday. The Viking Boys may have suffered a letdown in that match with the Super Eagles after they pulled off a 1-1 draw with Argentina in their opening contest. Certainly, this Iceland side has proven it can compete with the best teams in the world, as it drew 1-1 with Portugal, and then bested England, 2-1, two years ago in the first knockout round of the 2016 Euro. Don't be surprised if it is now Croatia which cannot resist a letdown in intensity after its rewarding result against Lionel Messi's Argentina team. This will also be the most organized defensive team which Croatia has encountered in this tournament. Take Iceland plus the +0.5 goal. SOCCER GAME OF THE WEEK. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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06-25-18 | Morocco v. Spain -1.5 | Top | 2-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
At 2:00 pm, on Monday, our selection is on Spain minus 1.5 goals (at Even odds) vs. Morocco. The Moroccans find themselves already eliminated in this World Cup after their 1-0 loss to Portugal last Tuesday. The Atlas Lions have had scoring opportunities but now they risk becoming the first team since both Honduras and Algeria in the 2010 World Cup to fail to score at least one goal in the entire tournament. With only pride at stake now, manager Herve Renard will likely loosen things up to help create more scoring opportunities. Unfortunately, this may play right into the hands of Spain. La Roja thrives when engaging a team that does not simply park the bus in the back. That is what an organized and well-coached Iran team did on Tuesday and it almost worked as La Roja escaped with just a 1-0 victory. Unfortunately for Iran, Spain broke through nine minutes into the second half when Diego Costa scored his third goal in this tournament. The good news for the 2010 World Cup champions is Costa is thriving within its tiki-taka short-passing game system that failed to succeed in a disastrous 2014 World Cup. La Roja scored three times against the reigning Euro champions (Portugal) in its opening match and would have taken the win if not for the magnificent hat trick from Cristiano Ronaldo. Importantly, Spain needs a victory to ensure it stays ahead of Iran to advance to the kncokout stage. Moreover, La Roja remains unbeaten in its last 22 matches going back to 2016 Euro. They scored 36 goals while allowing only three in their 10 qualification matches so a win by at least two goals is very much in play. Spain will have its foot on the gas pedal in this match while playing an opponent which will also likely be willing to engage in an aggressive style. Lay the -1.5 goals with Spain. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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06-24-18 | Panama v. England -1.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 58 h 7 m | Show |
At 8:00 am, on Sunday, our selection is on England minus 2.0 goals, at +134 odds vs. Panama. It has been 28 years since England made the semifinals of the 1990 World Cup. However, England demonstrated perseverance and grit in its 2-1 win over Tunisia on Monday. The Three Lions of the past would have probably left that match with a demoralizing 1-1 draw against an inferior squad. These Three Lions, though, have a new generation of exciting talent led by Harry Kane whose winning header in stoppage time secured the victory. His heroics should help the Three Lions play with confidence in this second match against Panama. The Canal Men played a nice first-half against Belgium on Monday but were overwhelmed in the final 45 minutes in a 3-0 loss. The Red Devils' tactics in that second half should offer a blueprint to England's manager Gareth Southgate as to how to create space against Panama's physicality. Interestingly, Panama is the CONCACAF team which took the USA's expected World Cup spot. But this team could only manage a quarterfinals appearance in last summer's Gold Cup which included B-teams for Mexico and Costa Rica, as they rested players for this summer. The Canal Men later qualified for this tournament last fall on a fateful night where they scored a phantom goal against Costa Rica while, simultaneously, the USA suffered an embarrassing loss to lowly Trinidad and Tobago. Even worse: Panama limped into this tournament with just one victory in five friendlies (while scoring only one goal in those matches). Their 6-0 loss to Switzerland in late March, along with a 5-0 loss to Argentina and a 4-2 loss to Chile in the 2016 Copa American suggests that their poor second half against Belgium is the form we should expect to see here vs. the Three Lions. Lay the 2.0 goals with England. HIGH ROLLER WINNER. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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06-22-18 | Nigeria v. Iceland | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -102 | 24 h 56 m | Show |
At 11:00 am, on Friday, our selection is on Iceland PK'em (on the goal-line), vs. Nigeria, with the current odds being (roughly) -107. Iceland continued to play the role of Cinderella on the big stage of major international competitions by earning a 1-1 draw last Saturday against Argentina. Representing a nation of 300,000 people, the Viking Boys are the smallest country to ever play in the World Cup. But manager Heimar Hallgrimsson's team should have already proven that this result was no fluke. They reached the quarterfinals of the 2016 Euro with a 2-1 win over England in the first knockout round after earning a 1-1 draw with the eventual winner in Portugal in their opening match. Iceland scored in every match in that Euro and they continued that trend in this tournament by quickly leveling the score four minutes after an Argentina team -- generally considered as one of the top five national teams in the world -- scored first in the 19th minute. Iceland is a counterattacking side that sets traps after emphasizing a primary focus on defensive tactics. Nigeria will likely play right into their hands after they lost their opening match on Saturday in a 2-0 loss to Croatia. The Super Eagles lacked attacking spark throughout that match and now find themselves in a must-win situation as they are in last place in Group D. We had Croatia in that match on Saturday as our World Cup Soccer Game of the Week, and I noted my concern over Nigeria's inexperienced 19-year-old keeper in Francis Uzoho, who seemed to be given the starting job due to a loss of confidence in the incumbent starter. Uzoho allowed a frustrating own-goal in the first-half before giving up a penalty kick in the second half but those difficult circumstances do not remove his lack of seasoning in these high-pressure contests. Iceland the momentum, confidence and outstanding team cohesion. Take Iceland as a pk'em, on the goal-line. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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06-21-18 | Croatia +0.5 v. Argentina | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
At 2:00 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on Croatia plus the +0.5 goal vs. Argentina. Lionel Messi disappointed the Argentine faithful on Saturday when he missed a penalty kick which ultimately made the difference between earning three points (with a victory) and a single point (with their 1-1 draw with Iceland). It was a frustrating result for La Albiceleste considering that the advantage of having this generation's best player in the world was not enough to defeat a national team which represents only 300,000 people. Argentina is ranked 5th in the world by FIFA, but owns an aging roster, and had uninspiring results in its qualifying matches. Certainly, the team looks to be past its prime, as Messi once led a golden generation of talent but the younger crop of talent does not appear to be nearly as promising. These concerns have only heightened after the Iceland match, and they'll now have to take on a tough foe in Croatia. The Vatreni will not feel inferior to Argentina when it comes to talent on the pitch. Led by Messi's teammate at Barcelona in Ivan Rakitic along with Real Madrid's Luka Modric and Mateo Kovacic, they boast one of the best collection of midfielders in the world. Team cohesion has been the biggest issue when these stars enlist with the national team but this group gained confidence and chemistry with a 2-0 victory over Nigeria on Saturday. With Argentina's surprising draw, the Vatreni are on the fast track to advance to the knockout stage from this group. Croatia would be happy with a draw but have more than enough skill to win this match outright. Take Croatia plus the +0.5 goal. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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06-20-18 | Iran v. Spain +1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
At 2:00 pm, on Wednesday, our selection is on Spain over Iran. While Spain's 3-3 result against Portugal on Friday left La Roja with a bad taste in their mouths, it actually dominated much of that match after falling behind 1-0. Indeed, it looked like Spain was going to win by a 3-2 score before Cristiano Ronaldo scored on a perfectly executed free kick in the 88th minute. Despite the failure to secure the 3 points with a win, there were a number of encouraging developments for La Roja. First, their tiki-taka tactics allowed them to hold possession for 61% of the match against the reigning European champions. And, second, Striker Diego Costa scored twice and seemed very comfortable operating within their short and continual passing scheme. That's important, as one of the biggest questions the Spanish had entering the World Cup was whether Costa would thrive in this system. Certainly, La Roja needs to clean up its defensive play but it has an appropriate foil in Iran, which surely is feeling very good about itself after its 1-0 win over Morocco last week. For much of that game, it looked like Team Melli was going to end up with a draw. But a corner kick resulted in an own-goal by the Moroccans to give Iran the surprising upset victory in the extra stoppage time. Yet Team Melli was outplayed in most of that match as they controlled possession for just 36% of the game. I look for a blowout today, as Spain scored 36 goals while it allowed only three in its 10 qualification matches for the World Cup. Meanwhile, Iran's win vs. Morocco was just its second victory ever in a World Cup, and it's scored just one goal in its last four matches dating back to 2014. Take Spain. Elite Info Play. As always, good luck....Al McMordie. |
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06-19-18 | Egypt +0.5 v. Russia | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -122 | 35 h 45 m | Show |
At 2:00 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on Egypt plus the +0.5 goal over Russia. The host nation Russia was impressive in the opening match of the World Cup by crushing Saudi Arabia by a 5-0 score. We had the Bears and were rewarded by that offensive onslaught. However, let's not overreact to one good performance since this result may say more about how bad Saudi Arabia is. Moreover, the Russian team limped into this tournament with just one win in their last eight friendlies. While we do not want to read too much into exhibition matches, the Bears were disastrous in the 2016 Euro before failing to advance to the knockout stage as the host nation in last summer's Confederation Cup. Even worse: midfielder Alan Dzagoev just suffered a leg injury which will likely keep him out of this match. Egypt -- like Russia -- played a great game to kick off their tournament. The Pharaohs allowed just one goal in their match vs. Uruguay in the 89th minute to walk away with a heartbreaking 1-0 loss. But not all is lost for this team as its superstar striker, Mohamed Salah, looks to take the pitch on Tuesday with it being a little after three weeks since he suffered a leg injury in the Champions League finals. Salah scored 44 goals in 52 matches for Liverpool, and will be the best player on the pitch while offering another jolt of confidence to the Egyptian players who managed quite well without him on Friday. The Pharaohs are desperate to gain the three points that come from a win while Russia could be content to park the bus in the back and grind out a draw which will give them another point (while maintaining a favorable goal differential for tie-breakers). Take Egypt plus the +0.5 goal. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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06-08-18 | Warriors v. Cavs +6 | Top | 108-85 | Loss | -107 | 43 h 27 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers + the points over Golden State. It's deja vu all over again, as the Warriors once again have a 3-games-to-none stranglehold on the series. However, the Cavs blew out the Warriors, 137-116, in Game 4 last season, and I expect another strong effort on Friday night. Indeed, NBA teams have cashed 64.2% over the past 28 years in the NBA Finals off a pointspread defeat if they trail 2-0 or 3-0 in the series. Even better: LeBron James' teams have gone 47-27 ATS at home in the Playoffs provided they weren't leading in the series. Take Cleveland + the points. NBA Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-03-18 | Cavs +12.5 v. Warriors | Top | 103-122 | Loss | -108 | 66 h 15 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers + the points over Golden State. The Warriors won Game 1, 124-114, in overtime, to take a 1-0 series lead. Off that loss, we'll grab the points with Cleveland, as .610 (or better) NBA teams are 61-42 ATS as underdogs when down 1 game to none in a Playoff series. And LeBron James' teams have gone 23-15 ATS on the road in the Playoffs off a SU loss. Take Cleveland. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-31-18 | Cavs v. Warriors -12 | Top | 114-124 | Loss | -108 | 42 h 1 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over Cleveland. The Western Conference has been dominant vs. the East, as its teams have now had home court advantage in the NBA Finals for 18 of the last 21 years! In the previous 20 seasons, over those 17 NBA Finals openers where it owned home court advantage in the finals, the Western Conference has won Game 1 all but two seasons (2001, 2004), and has gone 13-4 ATS. Even worse for LeBron James & Co., the Western Conference has now won and covered 10 STRAIGHT TIMES (since 2005) in Game 1 when it owned home court advantage in the Finals! And LeBron James teams accounted for six of those 10 defeats. I look for Golden State to blow out Cleveland, as it's 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings between these two teams, with those seven wins by an average of 15.28 ppg. Moreover, Golden State has gone 15-1 SU and 10-6 ATS in the opening game of its last 16 Playoff series, and it also falls into 90-49 and 32-10 ATS Playoff Systems of mine, that take certain teams in Game 1, based on various team statistics. Lay it. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-28-18 | Warriors v. Rockets +6 | Top | 101-92 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 59 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets + the points over Golden State. This will be the fourth Game 7 of this year's NBA Playoffs. The home team has won two of the first three, with Boston, last night, being the sole loser. Dating back to 1991, the home teams have gone 55-16 straight-up and 41-28-2 ATS in the 71 Game 7s. Interestingly, this will be just the 2nd time a home team has been an underdog in a Game 7 since 1991, and the other time was also with this Houston Rockets squad, back in 2015, when they were a 2.5-point dog to the Clippers. Houston pulled the upset in that game, and I wouldn't be surprised if it shocked the world, here, tonight -- especially since they were blown out by 29 on Saturday. Indeed, since 1991, underdogs have cashed 89% of the time off a loss in the semi-finals or finals by 22+ points, if they didn't trail in the series. Take Houston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-23-18 | Cavs v. Celtics +1 | Top | 83-96 | Win | 100 | 18 h 36 m | Show |
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics over the Cleveland Cavaliers. It's well-chronicled that the Boston Celtics have yet to lose a playoff game at home this season (they're 9-0 -- both straight-up and against the spread). That's one reason to favor the Celtics in Game 5, tonight. Another is that Boston has been the much superior team against the point spread this season. Boston's covered 63.5%, while Cleveland's cashed just 39.5%. That's a whopping 24 percent difference. And in the Playoffs, home teams that have covered more than 17.1% of the time than their opponents have cashed a staggering 82.35% since 1991! Take Boston in Game 5. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-22-18 | Rockets +9 v. Warriors | Top | 95-92 | Win | 100 | 17 h 50 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets + the points over Golden State. The Rockets owned the best record in the league this season. But all of that success went out the window in Game 3 when they lost by 41 points. I love Houston to bounce back on Tuesday, as .667 (or better) teams are a perfect 17-0 ATS as road underdogs, priced from +7 to +13 points, in Games 2, 3 or 4 of a Playoff series, if they trail by 1 or 2 games in the series. Take Houston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-21-18 | Celtics +7 v. Cavs | Top | 102-111 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 33 m | Show |
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics + the points over Cleveland. The Celts were bombed by 30 points by Cleveland on Saturday. Unfortunately for LeBron James & Co., favorites off a playoff blowout win by more than 21 points generally fail to cover the spread in their next playoff game vs. that embarrassed opponent, and especially if they trail in the series. Since 1991, such teams have covered just 24.2% of the time, including 0-8 ATS in the last two rounds of the Playoffs. Cleveland is a poor 22-50-1 ATS this season as a favorite, including 1-11 ATS vs. foes off a loss by 14+ points. The Celtics, meanwhile, are 61-34-2 ATS on the season, including 10-1-1 ATS when they lost their previous game by double-digits. And they're 16-4 ATS when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season, including a perfect 6-0 ATS vs. .600 (or better) foes. Take Boston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-20-18 | Rockets v. Warriors -7 | Top | 85-126 | Win | 100 | 92 h 12 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors. Analysis to follow. |
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05-19-18 | Celtics v. Cavs -6 | Top | 86-116 | Win | 100 | 90 h 26 m | Show |
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavs. (Analysis to follow.) |
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05-16-18 | Warriors v. Rockets -2 | Top | 105-127 | Win | 100 | 43 h 9 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets. (Analysis to follow.) |
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05-15-18 | Cavs +1 v. Celtics | Top | 94-107 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers over the Boston Celtics. The Cavs were blown out by 25 to start this series. But I love Cleveland to bounce back on Tuesday, as .610 (or better) teams have cashed 35 of 50 playoff games off a road defeat by more than 21 points. And LeBron James' teams have gone 10-6 SU/ATS in the playoffs when down 1-0 in a series. Take Cleveland. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-14-18 | Warriors +1.5 v. Rockets | Top | 119-106 | Win | 100 | 19 h 49 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors + the points over Houston. The Rockets' win percentage (including playoff games) is substantially higher (.793 vs. .717) than the Warriors' win percentage, and Houston also enjoys home court advantage. Yet Houston's not being given much respect in Vegas, as it's favored by a very short price. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the "better" team in Game 1 laying a very short price, but consider that NBA teams that owned a much better (at least .060) win percentage have covered just 26% of their Game 1s since 1991 when not favored by more than four points! Take the Warriors. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-08-18 | Jazz +12.5 v. Rockets | Top | 102-112 | Win | 100 | 17 h 22 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz + the points over Houston. The Rockets took a 3-1 series lead with a sweep of the Jazz in Salt Lake City. The series returns to the Toyota Center tonight, where the Rockets will look to eliminate the Jazz. Unfortunately for Houston, it's been installed as a huge favorite. And home favorites of 12+ points off a win in the playoffs are a poor 13-34 ATS if they're not trailing in the series. Take Utah. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-06-18 | Warriors -5.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 118-92 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
At 3:35 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over New Orleans. The Pelicans blew out the Warriors, 119-100, on Friday to cut the series deficit to one game heading into this Game 4. Unfortunately for the Pelicans, the Warriors are at their very best off a straight-up loss when playing an opponent off a win. Dating back to 2011, Golden State is 75-38-1 ATS in this situation, including 15-8 ATS in the Playoffs, and 9-1 ATS as a favorite of more than 5 points vs. a .580 (or better) foe. Take the Warriors. NBA ELITE INFO WINNER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-05-18 | Raptors +5 v. Cavs | Top | 103-105 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors + the points over Cleveland. The Raptors were blown out, 128-110 in Game 2, and certainly didn't expect to be down 2 games to none in this series after compiling the best record in the Eastern Conference. We'll grab the points with Toronto as NBA playoff teams with a superior win percentage have cashed 79.16% since 1991 off back-to-back playoff losses, if they lost their previous game by 15+ points. Take Toronto. NBA Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-05-18 | Celtics v. 76ers -9 | Top | 101-98 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
At 5:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over Boston. The Sixers are down 2 games to none in this series, and have been installed as a big favorite today. That bodes well for them, as teams down exactly two games in a series have cashed 71.05% at home in the first three rounds of the playoffs since 1991 when favored by more than 4 points. Lay it. |
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05-04-18 | Rockets -3.5 v. Jazz | Top | 113-92 | Win | 100 | 46 h 20 m | Show |
At 10:35 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Houston Rockets minus the points over Utah. The Jazz stunned the #1-seeded Rockets on Wednesday, with a 116-108 victory at the Toyota Center. Unfortunately for the Jazz, NBA home teams are an awful 6-17 ATS in Game 3 of the quarterfinals, if they're off an upset win and the series is tied at 1-game apiece. Even worse: if their win percentage is .640 or worse, then they're a dismal 1-10 ATS. Take Houston in Game 3. Western Conference Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-03-18 | 76ers -4 v. Celtics | Top | 103-108 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 44 m | Show |
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over Boston. The Sixers were upset, 117-101, in Game 1 of this series. But I look for them to bounce back on Thursday, as favorites are 73-45-2 ATS in the 2nd Round of the NBA playoffs since 1991 off a 7-point road loss, including 5-2 ATS as a road favorite off an upset loss. Lay the points with Philly. NBA High Roller Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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05-03-18 | Cavs v. Raptors -6 | Top | 128-110 | Loss | -115 | 37 h 30 m | Show |
At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over Cleveland. The Raptors were upset by Cleveland, 113-112, in Game 1 on Tuesday. I love the Raptors to rebound on Thursday, as home teams have cashed 75% over the past 13 years off a loss in Game 1 of the quarter-final round, including a perfect 8-0 SU/ATS when they owned a win percentage of .700 or better. Take Toronto. NBA Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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05-01-18 | Cavs v. Raptors -6.5 | Top | 113-112 | Loss | -102 | 17 h 45 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over Cleveland. The Cavaliers were stretched to the full seven games in the first round by the #5-seeded Indiana Pacers. Now, they have to play the fairly well-rested #1 seeded Raptors, who dispatched Washington in six games. We'll lay the points with Toronto, as underdogs of +6 or more points, off a seven-game series win in Round 1, are a poor 27% ATS since 1991 in Game 1 of the 2nd round. Take Toronto minus the points. NBA Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-30-18 | 76ers -2 v. Celtics | Top | 101-117 | Loss | -106 | 40 h 41 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over Boston. The Celtics needed seven games to dispatch of the Milwaukee Bucks. Unfortunately, teams that go the full seven games generally perform poorly in Game 1 of the next round when matched up against opponents that won their series in four or five games (as Philly did vs. Miami). Since 1991, the teams that played seven games in their previous series have cashed just 33% in Game 1 vs. foes that played much shorter series. Take Philly. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-29-18 | Pacers v. Cavs -5 | Top | 101-105 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers minus the points over Indiana. It's tough to make an argument against a home team in an NBA Game 7, regardless of how the first six games went. So, yes, it's absolutely true that Indiana has been the better team up to this point. The Pacers have covered five of the six games, and blew out Cleveland by 34 on Friday. But the fact remains that NBA home teams have dominated Game 7s since the dawn of NBA history (103-26 straight-up). And nothing has changed recently, either, as NBA home teams are 14-3 straight-up and 11-6 ATS since June 2013. Moreover, LeBron James has also been dominant at home in the Playoffs in games where his team was tied or trailing in the series. In his career, his teams have gone 54-15 SU and 44-25 ATS in this situation, including a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS in Game 7. Indeed, LeBron James' teams have now cashed five straight Game 7s (whether at home or on the road) since 2008, and they've covered those five games by an average of 7.1 ppg. Take the Cavaliers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-28-18 | Pelicans v. Warriors -7.5 | Top | 101-123 | Win | 100 | 18 h 26 m | Show |
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over New Orleans. It's tough to go against a home team in Game 1 of the quarterfinals round. And especially when such home teams are priced from -8 to -11.5 points. Since 1991, these teams are 30-2 straight-up and 26-6 ATS. But that's not the best part. If they're playing an opponent off back to back SU/ATS wins, then our 26-6 stat zooms to 11-0 ATS, with the average margin of victory being 17.9 ppg. This will be a roast. Lay the points with Golden State. NBA High Roller Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-26-18 | Celtics +5 v. Bucks | Top | 86-97 | Loss | -109 | 42 h 35 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Boston Celtics + the points over Milwaukee. The Celtics won the pivotal Game 5 on Tuesday to take a 3-2 series lead. In the Playoffs, NBA road teams up 3 games to 2 have cashed a whopping 67% in the 1st round. Take Boston + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-25-18 | Wolves +12 v. Rockets | Top | 104-122 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 13 m | Show |
At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Timberwolves + the points over Houston. It's treacherous to lay more than 10 points in a Playoff game, and especially when the favored team is coming off a win in its previous playoff game vs. its opponent. Since 1991, our double-digit favorites in this situation have covered just 29 of 77 games. Take Minnesota + the points. |
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04-25-18 | Jazz v. Thunder -3.5 | Top | 99-107 | Win | 100 | 19 h 13 m | Show |
At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma City Thunder minus the points over Utah. We played on Utah in Game 4 of this series, and were rewarded with a double-digit blowout win. But we will switch gears, and lay the points with OKC in this "do-or-die" Game 5. Indeed, home favorites down three-games-to-one in a series have covered 61.2% since 1991 off back to back losses. Lay the points with the Thunder. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-25-18 | Pacers +6.5 v. Cavs | Top | 95-98 | Win | 100 | 17 h 44 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers + the points over Cleveland. The Pacers have won two of the four games in this series, but have outplayed Cleveland, overall. In the four games, Indiana has outscored the Cavs, 387-374, and has covered three of the four games. The Pacers are 54-28-4 ATS off a Playoff defeat, including 21-6-3 ATS as a road underdog of +2 or more points. Meanwhile, Cleveland is 20-46-1 ATS as a favorite this season. Take the Pacers + the points. |
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04-25-18 | Wizards v. Raptors -7 | Top | 98-108 | Win | 100 | 17 h 42 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over the Washington Wizards. Toronto dropped both games in our nation's capital, and this series is now level at 2 games apiece. I look for the #1-seeded Raptors to re-assert themselves here, at home, as top seeds have cashed 64 percent in the Playoffs since 1991 when favored (or PK) off back to back losses by 5+ points. Lay it! Eastern Conf. Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-24-18 | Spurs v. Warriors -11 | Top | 91-99 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 34 m | Show |
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over San Antonio. The Warriors had won seven straight Playoff games over the past two seasons vs. San Antonio. So, perhaps, it was no surprise that they didn't bring their best game on Sunday in San Antone. But off that blowout loss, I expect the Warriors to be more focused tonight. Indeed, Golden State is 75-37-1 ATS over the past 7+ years off a loss when playing a foe off a win, including 15-7 ATS in the Playoffs. Golden State also falls into 86-37 and 126-65 ATS systems of mine which play on certain teams off playoff defeats. Lay the points with the Warriors. NBA Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-23-18 | Thunder v. Jazz -5 | Top | 96-113 | Win | 100 | 19 h 24 m | Show |
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Oklahoma City. The Jazz gained control of this series with a 13-point win in Game 3 to take a 2-1 series lead. The Jazz are now 27-5 straight-up, and 21-11 ATS in their last 32 games when playing with rest, including 20-5 ATS when not laying more than 10 points! And they're a fantastic 54-33-2 ATS as a home favorite in the Playoffs, including 36-4 straight-up and 28-11-1 ATS when priced from -4.5 to -7.5 points. The Jazz also fall into a Playoff system of mine which is 76-47 ATS which plays on certain home teams off Playoff wins. Take Utah. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-22-18 | Raptors -2 v. Wizards | Top | 98-106 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over Washington. The #1-seeded Raptors played a rare bad game on Friday, as they lost 122-103 in Game 3. The good news for fans North of the Border is that .615 (or better) teams have cashed 67% in the Playoffs since 1991 off double-digit losses when they've led the series 2-games-to-1, against .540 (or worse) opponents. Take Toronto. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-22-18 | Celtics +4.5 v. Bucks | Top | 102-104 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics + the points over Milwaukee. The Bucks blew out Boston, 116-92, on Friday. But we'll fade the Bucks today, as Boston is a super 57-31-2 ATS its last 90 road games, including 12-3-1 its last 16 off a loss by 7+ points. Meanwhile, Milwaukee is a horrid 18-53-2 ATS as a home favorite when it's owned a winning record, including 6-23 ATS when playing a revenge-minded opponent. Boston also falls into a 21-0 ATS Playoffs system of mine which plays on certain teams off blowout losses. Take the Celtics. NBA Underdog of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-21-18 | Thunder +4.5 v. Jazz | Top | 102-115 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 18 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma City Thunder + the points over Utah. The Thunder fell at home in Game 2, 102-95. I look for OKC to bounce back on this Saturday, as teams off an upset home loss in the playoffs have cashed 60% since 1991 in their next game (and 26-13 ATS the last 5+ years), provided they weren't favored by 2+ points. Here, of course, OKC is an underdog. Take the Thunder + the points. Western Conf. Game of the Week. Good luck, as always ... Al McMordie. |
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04-21-18 | 76ers v. Heat +3.5 | Top | 106-102 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
At 2:35 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat + the points over Philadelphia. The Sixers took a 2-1 lead in this series with a 20-point blowout of Miami in Game 3. Unfortunately for Philly, road teams are a dismal 35% ATS since 1991 in Game 4 of a series, off a double-digit win, if they lead the series 2 games to 1. Take the Heat + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-20-18 | Celtics v. Bucks -6 | Top | 92-116 | Win | 100 | 19 h 3 m | Show |
At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Boston. The Bucks have their backs against the wall, as they face a 2-game deficit going into this Game 3. We'll lay the points with Milwaukee, as winning teams, off back to back road losses, down two games in a Playoff series, are 115-90 ATS at home. |
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04-18-18 | Wolves +10.5 v. Rockets | Top | 82-102 | Loss | -105 | 54 h 58 m | Show |
At 9:35 pm, on Wednesday, our selection is on the Minnesota Timberwolves + the points over Houston. The Rockets were the league's best team (by far) this season. But in Game 1 of the Playoffs they had to withstand a missed 3-pointer by Jimmy Butler to escape with a 3-point win. We'll fade the Rockets in Game 2, as .719 (or better) NBA teams off a win by less than 15 points to open a playoff series are a soft 27.6% ATS since 1991, and just 16.6% ATS when laying more than 9 points. Take Minnesota + the points. NBA ELITE INFO WINNER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-18-18 | Pacers v. Cavs -8 | Top | 97-100 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 26 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, on Wednesday, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers minus the points over Indiana. The Pacers walloped the Cavaliers, 98-80, in Game 1. But LeBron James' teams have cashed 71% at home in his career in the Eastern Conference Playoffs when they've not led in a Playoff series. But that's not the best part. In the first two rounds, in his career, LeBron's teams are a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS at home when they've trailed in a Playoff series, and have covered by an average of 10.06 ppg. This will be a roast. Take Cleveland minus the points. NBA GAME OF THE MONTH. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-17-18 | Pelicans v. Blazers -6 | Top | 111-102 | Loss | -116 | 31 h 2 m | Show |
At 10:35 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over New Orleans. The Blazers were upset by Anthony Davis & Co. on Saturday night. But I love Portland to level this series at one game apiece. Indeed, teams seeded #3 (or better) off a loss to start the NBA Playoffs, are 32-3 straight-up and 24-9-2 ATS at home in Game 2, including a perfect 8-0 ATS vs. foes with a .567 (or better) win percentage. Lay the points with Portland. PERFECT 10 CLUB PLAY. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-11-18 | Spurs v. Pelicans -3.5 | Top | 98-122 | Win | 104 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans minus the points over San Antonio. The San Antonio Spurs have a severe home/road bias this season. At home, the Spurs are 33-8 straight-up and 25-14-2 ATS. And they've won their last 11 home games in a row (9-2 ATS; 8-3 'under' the total). But on the road, San Antone is a miserable 14-26 SU and 17-22-1 ATS, including 0-7 SU its last seven (and 1-11 SU its last 12). A key reason for this is that San Antonio's defense has not traveled with it on the road, of late. Indeed, since the All-Star break, the Spurs' defensive rating at home is 2nd in the NBA, while it's #22 on the road. The Spurs are a horrid 0-9 ATS at New Orleans the last four seasons when not favored by double-digits. Take the Pelicans. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-11-18 | Nuggets v. Wolves -3 | Top | 106-112 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota T-Wolves minus the points over Denver. Minnesota comes into this final game off three straight point spread wins. And home teams with a winning record, off three ATS wins, have covered 90% in their final game of the season since 1991 vs. foes off a SU/ATS home win. With Denver in off an 88-82 win vs. Portland (as a 5-point favorite), we'll lay the points with Minnesota on Wednesday. |
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04-11-18 | Grizzlies v. Thunder -16.5 | Top | 123-137 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma City Thunder minus the points over Memphis. The Grizzlies threw in the towel on the season months ago, so it wasn't a surprise to hear that center Marc Gasol won't play in tonight's finale. And Gasol will join a long list of solid NBA players sidelined for Memphis in this game (e.g., JaMychal Green, Chandler Parsons, Tyreke Evans, Mike Conley). Memphis will finish with the 2nd worst record this season (one game ahead of Phoenix), so will have an excellent chance to get the #1 pick in the 2018 draft. The Grizzlies lost by 19 points to the T-Wolves on Monday, and that doesn't bode well for them, as .300 (or worse) teams off a loss have cashed just four of 21 games in their final game of the season, if they're matched up against a foe with a win percentage greater than .300. Take the Thunder to blow out Memphis. |
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04-11-18 | Raptors v. Heat -4.5 | Top | 109-116 | Win | 100 | 4 h 14 m | Show |
At 8:05, our selection is on the Miami Heat minus the points over Toronto. The Raptors have had a brilliant season, and earned the #1 seed in the East. For their reward, they'll rest their stars tonight in Miami. This will be the Heat's final home game of the season, and Miami falls into a 92-57 ATS "Last Home Game" system of mine, which plays on certain teams, with a .333 (or better) record in their final home game of the season. And the Heat also fall into a 42-14 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off 15+ point blowout losses. More ammunition for pulling the trigger on the Heat tonight: Miami is 26-12 ATS off back to back losses, and 46-33 ATS when playing with revenge. Lay the points with Miami. NBA Roadkill Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-11-18 | Nets -1.5 v. Celtics | Top | 97-110 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 11 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Boston. We played on Brooklyn in its last game -- a win and cover vs. the Bulls -- and that was the Nets' 3rd straight win and cover. Meanwhile, the Celtics are trending in the opposite direction with 0 ATS wins in their last four games. And that includes a blowout loss at Washington last night (another game we had, as we laid the points with the Wizards). We will once again play against the Celtics, who clearly have no interest in this game. For technical support, consider that .481 (or better) teams off a loss are awful as home underdogs/PK vs. non-winning opponents, as they've cashed just 26 of 79 games since 1990. Take Brooklyn. NBA Road Warrior Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-10-18 | Warriors v. Jazz -8 | Top | 79-119 | Win | 100 | 3 h 20 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Golden State. The Jazz are playing as well as any team in basketball, and are the proverbial team which 'no one wants to play' in the Playoffs. Utah is 28-5 its last 33 games, and 19-14 ATS, including two blowout wins over this Golden State squad (129-99, 110-91). I look for the Jazz to pull off the hat trick tonight with another blowout win, as they fall into 106-44, 87-40 and 69-39 ATS 'momentum' systems of mine. Also, this will be the Warriors' final road game of the season, and .500 (or better) teams are a poor 88-121 ATS in their final road game of the year if they are an underdog. Lay the points with Utah. NBA Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-10-18 | Celtics v. Wizards -7.5 | Top | 101-113 | Win | 100 | 2 h 20 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Wizards over the Boston Celtics. The Wizards will close out their home schedule with a game tonight vs. the Celtics. And the Wizards are playing this game with a significant 'rest' advantage, as they have had the previous three days off, while the Celtics are playing on just one day of rest. Since 1991, .500 (or better) teams have cashed 59.2% in their final home game of the season when playing with at least 2 more days' of rest than their opponent. With the Wizards still in a battle for playoff seeding, and Boston locked into the #2 slot, we'll lay the points. Take Washington. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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04-09-18 | Bulls v. Nets -7.5 | Top | 105-114 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Chicago. These two teams met in their last game, and Brooklyn blew out the Bulls, 124-96, in Chicago. That was also the 2nd straight blowout win by Brooklyn in this series (they won by 17 here in late February). Tonight, they play in Brooklyn, and we'll lay the points with the Nets, who fall into 51-11 and 95-41 ATS 'momentum' systems of mine that play on certain teams off blowout wins. Even worse for Chicago: this will be its final road game of the season. And underdogs of 4+ points have cashed just 17.6% of the time since 1993 off a 25-point blowout loss, if they gave up 110+ points in that defeat. Take Brooklyn. NBA Roadkill Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-08-18 | Warriors v. Suns +13.5 | Top | 117-100 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns + the points over Golden State. The Warriors are the league's most talented team. Unfortunately, this might be a star-crossed season (which some might view as karma for Zaza Pachulia's takeout of Kawhi Leonard in last year's playoffs). Currently, Steph Curry and Patrick McCaw have significant injuries, while Andre Iguodala also is hobbled, and won't play tonight. The Warriors are 57-23 SU and 33-47 ATS this season, and firmly ensconced in 2nd place in the Western conference. They also haven't covered two straight games since February 26, and have gone 5-14 ATS since. The Warriors played their final home game of the season yesterday vs. the Pelicans (who were still battling for a playoff spot), and lost to New Orleans, so they now have to play the Suns without rest, and without anything to play for. Let's grab the points with Phoenix in a home underdog role, today. Yes, it's true that the Warriors have won 14 straight in the series. But the last game (just seven days ago) was close, and the Suns easily covered in Oakland, as a 14.5-point underdog. This game also will be Phoenix's final home game of the season, and home underdogs have cashed 60% since 1991 in their final home game when playing .666 (or better) foes. Take the Suns + the points over Golden State. NBA High Roller Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-08-18 | Pacers v. Hornets +2 | Top | 123-117 | Loss | -115 | 1 h 40 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Charlotte Hornets + the points over Indiana. We played on the Hornets at Orlando on Friday, and were rewarded with a 37-point win. Meanwhile, Indiana was blown out, 92-73, by Toronto on Friday. It's true that Charlotte is out of the playoff picture with a losing record this season, while the Pacers are 46-34, and will be playing next weekend. But losing teams off wins by 30+ points have cashed 64% at home vs. foes off losses by 15+ points. Take Charlotte. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-07-18 | Blazers v. Spurs -4 | Top | 105-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs over the Portland Trail Blazers. The Spurs have a severe home/road bias this season. At home, the Spurs are 31-8 straight-up and 24-13-2 ATS. And they've won their last nine home games in a row (8-1 ATS). But on the road, San Antone is a miserable 14-26 SU and 17-22-1 ATS, including 0-7 SU its last seven (and 1-11 SU its last 12). A key reason for this is that San Antonio's defense has not traveled with it on the road, of late. Indeed, since the All-Star break, the Spurs' defensive rating at home is 97.3 (2nd in the NBA), while it's 110.5 on the road (#22). The good news for Gregg Popovich's crew is that it will have two of its final three games at home, including tonight's game vs. Portland. The Spurs will likely qualify for the Playoffs with just one more win, and I believe they'll get that victory tonight. San Antonio is an awesome 59-28 ATS as a favorite off a double-digit road loss, if its opponent is off a point spread win. Lay the points with the Spurs. NBA Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-07-18 | Pelicans v. Warriors -6 | Top | 126-120 | Loss | -125 | 18 h 30 m | Show |
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over New Orleans. This will be the Warriors' final home game of the season. And while it's true that it's largely been a disappointing regular season for the champs, I expect them to play hard tonight, given coach Steve Kerr's post-game comments following their 20-point loss to Indiana. Kerr called his team's performance "pathetic," and said he was "embarrassed." That should light a fire under his team tonight, and Golden State will also have an advantage in that the Pelicans had to play on Friday night, in Phoenix (while the Warriors were resting). The Warriors are an awesome 35-12 ATS off a loss by more than eight points, if they're playing an unrested foe. Lay the points with Golden State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-07-18 | Bucks -9 v. Knicks | Top | 115-102 | Win | 100 | 17 h 31 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over New York. We played on the Knicks last night, and got the cash when they blew out Miami, 122-98, as a 7.5-point underdog. Unfortunately, since 1990, losing teams off a double-digit win are a poor 26% ATS as home dogs of more than 8 points vs. foes off a loss. Additionally, Milwaukee falls into a 137-75 ATS system of mine Take Milwaukee. |
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04-07-18 | Nuggets v. Clippers +1 | Top | 134-115 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
At 3:35 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers over the Denver Nuggets. Los Angeles needs to win its last three games to even have a shot to make the playoffs, so this is a 'must-win' game for Doc Rivers' crew. If there is a silver lining for L.A., it's that all three of their games will be played here, at home. Denver's been a fairly poor road team this season, with a 14-25 SU record, and a 16-21-2 ATS mark. Even worse: Denver's 7-15 ATS on the road off a win. And the Clippers fall into a 67-25 ATS angle of mine which plays on certain teams off double-digit losses. Take the Clippers. |
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04-06-18 | Heat v. Knicks +9 | Top | 98-122 | Win | 100 | 17 h 35 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the New York Knicks + the points over Miami. The Knicks were blown out by 24 points, at home, on Tuesday by the Magic, while Miami won by 29 vs. Atlanta, on Wednesday. But off those two results, we'll grab the points with New York, as underdogs of 9+ points, off losses by more than 20, have covered 63% the last 15 seasons vs. foes off wins by more than 20 points. Take the Knicks. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-06-18 | Hornets -5.5 v. Magic | Top | 137-100 | Win | 100 | 16 h 6 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Charlotte Hornets minus the points over Orlando. The Hornets have won 10 straight (8-2 ATS) in this Southeast division series, and catch the Magic off back to back SU/ATS wins. Unfortunately for Orlando, it's a poor 1-6 SU/ATS off back to back SU/ATS wins. And it's 28-48-2 ATS at home its last 78. Take Charlotte. |
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04-06-18 | Cavs v. 76ers -3.5 | Top | 130-132 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 6 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Philly 76ers minus the points over Cleveland. These two teams are tied in the loss column (with 30 losses), so this game will likely determine which ends up with the overall #3 seed in the Eastern Conference. Philly has a definite advantage tonight, as it is rested, while Cleveland played last night vs. Washington. And the Cavs are a poor 2-14 ATS on the road off back to back wins, if they played the night before. Meanwhile, the Sixers have covered 10 straight, and won their last 12, straight-up. Lay the points. |
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04-04-18 | Spurs -6 v. Lakers | Top | 112-122 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Los Angeles. Last night, the Spurs lost a heartbreaker to the Clippers in LA, while the Lakers fell by seven, 117-110, in Utah. So, the Lakers will travel back home tonight to host the Spurs (who won't have to travel at all). We'll lay the points with San Antonio, as the Spurs are 87-54 ATS vs. unrested foes, including 24-6 ATS when the Spurs were off an upset loss. Take San Antonio. NBA Road Warrior Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-04-18 | Celtics v. Raptors -6.5 | Top | 78-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over Boston. The Raptors have lost their last nine to the point spread. But Toronto still has a winning ATS record this season, and the Raptors are also in first place by two games over the Celtics (with five to play). So, this game is huge for both teams, and I look for Toronto to blow out Boston, as teams with a .450 (or better) ATS win percentage are 77.2% ATS since 1990 off 9+ ATS losses. Lay the points with Toronto. NBA Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-03-18 | Nets +8 v. 76ers | Top | 95-121 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 39 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets + the points over Philadelphia. The Sixers are on a 10-game win streak (and 8-game point spread win streak), while Brooklyn was blown out, 108-96, as as 1-point underdog in its last game. But those two situations set up our play tonight, as home favorites that have covered 7+ games in a row are a poor 17.8% ATS since 1990 vs. foes that failed to cover by 10+ points in their previous game. Take Brooklyn + the points over Philly. NBA Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-02-18 | Michigan +7 v. Villanova | Top | 62-79 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
At 9:20 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines + the points over Villanova. We played on Michigan and against Villanova on Saturday. And we will do so, once again, tonight. The Wildcats darted out to a 22-4 lead vs. Kansas, and then kept the Jayhawks at bay the rest of the way, en route to a 95-79 win. Unfortunately, in the NCAA Tournament, in the Sweet 16 round forward, favorites off wins by more than 15 points have covered 0 of their last 10 vs. lower-seeded opponents. That doesn't bode well for the Wildcats tonight. And neither does the fact that underdogs of +6.5 (or more) points have gone 10-0 ATS in the Final Four since 1993 vs. .895 (or better) foes. Finally, Michigan falls into 49-15, 26-3, 31-4, 15-0 and 18-1 ATS Tourney systems of mine. Grab the points with the Wolverines. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-01-18 | Pistons v. Nets +1 | Top | 108-96 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets + the points over Detroit. Brooklyn upset Miami, 110-109, as an 8.5-point road underdog on Saturday, while Detroit downed the Knicks yesterday, 115-109, as a 4.5-point favorite. We'll take the Nets as a home dog this evening, as home dogs have cashed 65.4% ATS since 1990 vs. unrested foes off a SU/ATS win, if our home dog won outright as a 6-point (or better) road underdog in its last game. Take Brooklyn. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-01-18 | Magic +2 v. Hawks | Top | 88-94 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Orlando Magic + the points over Atlanta. The Hawks have been a very poor favorite over the last two seasons, and they're 21-36 ATS as a favorite since Nov. 20, 2016. That bodes well for Orlando this evening. As does the fact that Orlando falls into a 92-61 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off upset losses (the Magic were upset by the Chicago Bulls, on Friday). Take Orlando + the points. |
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04-01-18 | 76ers v. Hornets +3 | Top | 119-102 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, in an NBA TV-televised game, our selection is on the Charlotte Hornets + the points over Philadelphia. These two teams will be meeting for the fourth time this season on Sunday. The other three games all took place in March, and the Sixers won each game. But the leading scorer for Philly in two of those three games (and in all three games, combined) was center Joel Embiid. Unfortunately for Philly, Embiid will be absent today, as he recently underwent surgery to repair an orbital fracture. That will help open up things for Charlotte's center, Dwight Howard, who has averaged 22.8 ppg over his last five appearances. Take the Hornets. |
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03-31-18 | Kansas +5 v. Villanova | Top | 79-95 | Loss | -105 | 136 h 55 m | Show |
At 8:45 pm, our selection is on the Kansas Jayhawks + the points over Villanova. These two teams were seeded #1 in their respective regions. But it was Kansas which faced the more difficult road here to San Antonio. The Jayhawks bested Duke, Clemson, and Seton Hall. And those three teams rank #3, #14 and #25 in the current KenPom.com rankings. In contrast, Villanova's last three wins were against Texas Tech, West Virginia and Alabama. And those three teams currently rank #11, #12 and #55. Kansas also faced a more difficult schedule throughout the season, as the Jayhawks' schedule ranked as the 2nd toughest in College Basketball this year. Interestingly, there have been 35 post-season match-ups between two teams seeded #1, and the underdog has cashed 69.6% (23-10-2 ATS), including 11-1 ATS when getting 5+ points, and 10-2 ATS in the semi-final round. Moreover, Kansas is a super 8-3 ATS in the NCAA Tourney when getting 3+ points. Finally, the Jayhawks fall into several of my best tournament systems, with records of 31-3, 40-9, 18-1, 24-4 and 155-59 ATS. Take the Jayhawks + the points. NCAA Game of the Year! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-30-18 | San Francisco +4.5 v. North Texas | Top | 77-88 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Dons + the points over North Texas. We played on San Francisco -3.5 in Game 1 of this best-of-3 series (and won), and then took North Texas -3 in Game 2 (and also won). Now, for Game 3, the deciding game of this Championship series, we will grab the points with San Francisco. This is the 11th year of the CBI tournament, and for the ninth time in 11 tourneys, the Championship round has gone a full three games. In the previous eight tournaments that reached Game 3, the underdog has cashed five of seven (with one push). We'll grab the points with the Dons, as San Francisco falls into 9-1, 67-35, 33-17 and 33-16 ATS systems of mine. Additionally, North Texas has gone 0-8 ATS since 2010 as a favorite of -4 points or more at home vs. non-conference foes. Take San Francisco. CBI Tourney Game of the Year! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-28-18 | Sam Houston State +10.5 v. Northern Colorado | Top | 80-99 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 6 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Sam Houston State Bearkats + the points over Northern Colorado. The Bearkats come into this game off back-to-back upset wins over Texas San Antonio and Eastern Michigan. And that bodes well for them tonight, as teams off back-to-back upset wins have cashed 38 of 63 in the NIT, CBI and Insider Tourneys since 1991. Additionally, Northern Colorado falls into a negative 72-152 ATS system of mine. Take the points with Sam Houston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-28-18 | San Francisco v. North Texas -3 | Top | 55-69 | Win | 100 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the North Texas Mean Green minus the points over San Francisco. We played on North Texas in both of its home games earlier in this tournament, and were rewarded with two blowout wins over Mercer (96-67) and Jacksonville St (90-68). We played against North Texas in its next game, which was on the road, and got the cash with San Francisco. But we'll come right back with the Mean Green at home, tonight, as it's 5-0 straight-up, and 4-1 ATS at home in the post-season, with an average cover by 12.2 ppg. Meanwhile, San Francisco is a poor 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS on the road in the post-season, including 0-5 ATS when not getting more than 6 points. Finally, the Mean Green fall into a 60% ATS system of mine. Lay the points with North Texas. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-28-18 | Blazers -5.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 103-108 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over Memphis. The Grizzlies won a rare game two nights ago when they went into Minnesota and defeated the Timberwolves, 101-93, as a 13-point underdog. But the last time Memphis won two straight games was back on January 19, so I expect it to get blown out tonight. Memphis is a dreadful 2-21 SU and 7-16 ATS its last 23 games, while Portland is 17-3 SU and 16-3-1 ATS over its last 20. Take Portland. NBA Road Warrior Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-27-18 | Mississippi State v. Penn State -2.5 | Top | 60-75 | Win | 100 | 18 h 41 m | Show |
At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Penn State Nittany Lions minus the points over Mississippi State. The Nittany Lions have been terrific in the non-conference post-season tournaments over the years, as they've gone 19-5 straight-up and 15-8-1 ATS. Tonight, in New York, they'll take on a Bulldogs squad which pulled off a huge upset last Tuesday when it went into Louisville, and upset the Cardinals, 79-56, as a 6-point underdog. We'll go against Mississippi State, as it's a poor 1-11 ATS off an 18-point (or greater) SU/ATS win. Take Penn State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-27-18 | Nuggets v. Raptors -9 | Top | 110-114 | Loss | -108 | 17 h 12 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over the Denver Nuggets. The Toronto Raptors are mired in a 6-game point spread losing streak. And this cold patch immediately followed a six-week stretch of games where the Raptors went 17-1 straight-up and 14-4 against the spread. Still, Toronto is a very respectable 54-20 SU and 40-34 ATS on the season. There are now just eight games left for Toronto. And, even more important, it now sits just one game behind Golden State in the loss column for the second-best record in the league. The Warriors are just 3-5 over their last eight games (primarily due to injuries), so the Raptors' opportunity and motivation to overtake the Warriors are certainly real. Tonight, Toronto will host Denver, which defeated it in the first meeting back in November. I look for the Raptors to snap their six-game ATS losing streak, and blow out the Nuggets, as they've been installed as a 9-point favorite. Toronto is 21-8 ATS its last 29 when priced from -9 to -14 points, and it also falls into one of my best revenge systems, which is 101-41 ATS since 1990. Take Toronto. NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-27-18 | Western Kentucky v. Utah +2 | Top | 64-69 | Win | 100 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Utah Utes over Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers come into this game off back to back upset wins over USC (as a 4.5-point underdog) and Oklahoma State (as a 6.5-point underdog). Unfortunately for Western Kentucky, teams off back to back upset wins, where they were a 4-point (or greater) underdog in each of their two previous games, have cashed just 30% in the NIT Final Four over the past 28 years. Additionally, Utah falls into a 24-2 ATS Tourney system of mine. Take Utah. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-26-18 | North Texas v. San Francisco -3.5 | Top | 62-72 | Win | 100 | 17 h 12 m | Show |
At 10 pm, on Monday, in Game 1 of the Best-of-3 CBI Tournament Championship series, our selection is on the San Francisco Dons minus the points over North Texas. We played on the Mean Green in each of their last two games -- both at home -- and they rewarded us with two huge blowouts. They upset Mercer, 96-67, as a 2.5-point home underdog last Monday. And then they smashed Jacksonville St, 90-68, as a 1-point favorite last Wednesday. But North Texas isn't just off two blowouts. It also upset South Dakota, 90-77, as an 11.5-point underdog to start this tournament. Thus, the Mean Green have covered the point spread in their last three games by 24.5, 31.5 and 21 points (+77 points combined), which represents the 2nd best stretch of three straight covers since 1990. Indeed, only Georgia, in 1990, had a better stretch of 3 ATS wins (of 118,955 eligible games in my database) when it covered by 28, 39 and 18.5 points (+85.5 points combined) in three straight games. Not surprisingly, Georgia failed to cover its next lined game, when it fell to Vanderbilt, 75-74, as an 8.5-point favorite. I also look for North Texas to come up short tonight, as San Francisco is 19-9-1 ATS when matched up against opponents off 3 straight wins that were also on a 3-game ATS win streak. And home teams are 7-2 ATS since 2009 in this CBI Tournament in the opening game of the Best-of-3 Championship series. Take San Francisco. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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03-25-18 | Duke v. Kansas +3 | Top | 81-85 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
At 5:05 pm, our selection is on the Kansas Jayhawks + the points over Duke. The #1-seeded Jayhawks are off back to back ATS losses in their victories over Seton Hall and Clemson. But #1 seeds are 22-8 ATS after not covering the spread in each of their two previous games. Additionally, since 1991, the Duke Blue Devils are 0-5 SU/ATS in the NCAA Tournament vs. foes that failed to cover the point spread in their previous game (including three outright upset losses as a favorite of -13.5, -5.5, and -3 points). And Kansas is 32-13 ATS in the post-season off a point spread defeat. Take the Jayhawks + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-24-18 | Florida State +4 v. Michigan | Top | 54-58 | Push | 0 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
At 8:45 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles + the points over Michigan. Leonard Hamilton's #9-seeded Seminoles have already upset #1-seed Xavier and #4-seed Gonzaga to reach this Elite 8 round. Now they will take on the #3-seeded Wolverines. We'll grab the points with FSU as NCAA teams seeded #4 (or worse) have gone 29-8-2 ATS in this Elite 8 Round when not laying 5+ points against foes seeded #3 or better. But that's not the best part: if our 'play-on' team was an underdog of +4 or more points in its previous game (Florida State was +6), then our 29-8-2 stat zooms to 17-1 ATS since 1991. Take the Seminoles. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-24-18 | Loyola-Chicago v. Kansas State -1.5 | Top | 78-62 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Kansas State Wildcats minus the points over Loyola Chicago. The 11th-seeded Ramblers are off three straight underdog wins to start this tournament, while 9th-seeded Kansas State has won twice in the underdog role, including an upset of Kentucky, as a 5-point dog, on Thursday. We'll lay the points with the Wildcats today, as teams off upset wins as 4.5-point (or greater) underdogs in the Sweet 16 round have gone 20-3 ATS in the Elite 8 round since 1991. Additionally, Kansas State falls into 67-30, 127-66, and 24-3 ATS tourney systems of mine. Lay the points. Elite 8 Game of the Year. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-24-18 | Wolves v. 76ers -7.5 | Top | 108-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers minus the points over Minnesota. The Sixers have won five straight, and have covered their last three games, including a 20-point blowout win at Orlando on Thursday. Philly had last night off, while Minnesota had to play against the Knicks in Madison Square Garden. Unfortunately for the T-Wolves, unrested road teams are a poor 15-28 ATS at Philly, including 2-7 ATS as an underdog of 4+ points. And Philly's also covered six of the last seven vs. Minnesota, including the last three here in Philly by an average point spread differential of 11.83 ppg. The 76ers have been dominant at home since the calendar turned on January 1, with a 16-2 SU record (14-4 ATS). Take the Sixers. NBA Roadkill Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-23-18 | Clemson v. Kansas -5 | Top | 76-80 | Loss | -107 | 15 h 31 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Kansas Jayhawks minus the points over Clemson. The Jayhawks won by 4 points vs. Seton Hall last weekend (as a 4.5-point favorite), while the Tigers blew out Auburn, 84-53. And that was Clemson's 2nd straight double-digit win in this tournament. Overall, Clemson's covered four straight games. But we'll go against the Tigers tonight, as NCAA Tourney teams off wins by more than 16 points, and back to back wins and covers, overall, have been awful -- going 71-115-4 ATS since 1994. Moreover, Clemson's covered just 7 of 24 games in the post-season away from home, if their opponent was off an ATS loss. Take Kansas. ELITE INFO WINNER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-22-18 | Florida State v. Gonzaga -5.5 | Top | 75-60 | Loss | -109 | 44 h 35 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Gonzaga Bulldogs minus the points over Florida State. Our selection on the team to win the NCAA Tournament this season was Gonzaga, at 25-1 odds. It has done nothing to disappoint, as it's reeled off wins over NC Greensboro and Ohio State, and is just one of seven teams originally ranked among the top 16 teams that have made this Sweet 16 round. On Thursday, Gonzaga will take on a Florida State team that upset #1-seed Xavier, 75-70. Unfortunately for the Seminoles, single-digit underdogs have cashed just 25 of 65 in the Sweet 16 round off an upset win, provided their opponent wasn't off an upset win. And the Seminoles have also covered just 11 of 36 post-season games off a post-season win. Take Gonzaga. Sweet 16 Game of the Year. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-22-18 | Kansas State +6 v. Kentucky | Top | 61-58 | Win | 100 | 42 h 26 m | Show |
At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Kansas State Wildcats + the points over Kentucky. John Calipari's men have won nine of 10, including their last five in a row. And they've covered their last five games, as well. But we'll play against Kentucky on Thursday, as favorites of less than nine points have covered just 23% in the NCAA Tourney over the past 28 years off 5 straight wins and covers, if their opponent wasn't off back to back SU/ATS wins. Moreover, Kentucky's a horrid 2-13-1 ATS in the NCAA Tournament, if it's off 4+ wins and 3+ covers, including 0-9 ATS from the Sweet 16 round forward. Take Kansas State + the points. NCAA Tourney High Roller. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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03-21-18 | Utah v. St. Mary's -6 | Top | 67-58 | Loss | -106 | 22 h 15 m | Show |
At 10 pm, our selection is on the St Mary's Gaels minus the points over Utah. We played on Utah in its game on Monday vs. LSU, and were rewarded with a 95-71 blowout win. Unfortunately for the Utes, it's covered just 13 of 40 post-season games off a win. Meanwhile, St. Mary's is an awesome 83-47-3 ATS as a favorite of 20 points or less in non-conference games. Lay the points with St. Mary's. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-21-18 | Northern Colorado v. San Diego -2 | Top | 86-75 | Loss | -106 | 23 h 20 m | Show |
At 10 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Torerros minus the points over Northern Colorado. The Torreros will be playing their 3rd straight home game, and being able to stay at home, and avoid travel is a huge advantage in these post-season tournaments. Indeed, over the past 15 years, home teams have gone 50-18 SU and 44-23-1 ATS at home in the post-season (non-conference) tournaments when not laying 6+ points, if they won at home their two previous games. San Diego also falls into 72-29 and 77-39 ATS Tourney systems of mine. Lay the points with San Diego. Insider Tourney Game of the Year. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-21-18 | Wizards v. Spurs -5 | Top | 90-98 | Win | 100 | 19 h 6 m | Show |
At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Washington. Nine days ago, after their loss to Houston, the Spurs were in 10th play in the Western Conference, and on the outside, looking in at the Playoff picture. The Spurs have made the Playoffs 20 consecutive seasons, so there were certainly frayed nerves in the Alamo City at that time. But since then, the Spurs have ripped off four straight wins (and covers), including victories against the Pelicans and Timberwolves -- two teams with which the Spurs are competing for a Playoffs berth. Tonight, the Spurs will attempt to win their fifth straight game. I believe they'll get it, as they fall into a 90-37 ATS 'momentum' system of mine, which plays on certain teams off back to back double-digit victories. Also, San Antonio has dominated the Wizards over the years, and especially here at home where it has won 17 straight games (13-3-1, 81% ATS). Even worse: Washington's a poor 53-75 ATS as underdogs off back to back wins, when matched up against winning opponents. Take the Spurs. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-21-18 | Jackson State v. North Texas -1.5 | Top | 68-90 | Win | 100 | 20 h 10 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the North Texas Mean Green minus the points over Jacksonville St. We played on North Texas in its win Monday, at home, vs. the Mercer Bears. North Texas was installed as a home underdog, but blew out Mercer, 90-67. And that was the second straight high-scoring win for the Mean Green, as it also blew out South Dakota, 90-77, on the road, in Vermillion. I won't step in front of this North Texas freight train, as NCAA teams off back to back wins, in which they scored 88+ points, have gone 91-58 ATS as a favorite in the post-season since 1991. Take North Texas. |
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