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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-03-17 | Marshall +7.5 v. Florida Atlantic | Top | 25-30 | Win | 100 | 23 h 49 m | Show |
At 6:00 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Marshall Thundering Herd + the points over Florida Atlantic. The Herd stumbled last Saturday when they lost, 41-30, at home, as a 15-point favorite to Florida International. But Marshall had won its five previous games before that, and has covered five of seven on the season. This week, Marshall will travel to play the Owls, and it's a critical game, as the two teams are separated by just one game atop the Conference USA East Division standings. We'll grab the points with Marshall, as it falls into 51-15, 61-8 and 83-34 ATS "bounce-back" systems of mine that play on certain teams off upset losses. Moreover, the Owls are 3-12-1 ATS their last 16 home games, including 0-4 ATS vs. foes off a SU loss. And they're 5-19-1 ATS their last 25 as a favorite of less than 14 points (including 1-9 ATS vs. foes off a loss). Take Marshall. NCAA Elite Info. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-02-17 | Warriors v. Spurs +7 | Top | 112-92 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 54 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs + the points over the Golden State Warriors. The Spurs have played this season without Kawhi Leonard and Tony Parker. After winning their first four games, they've dropped their last three (all on the road). They now return home to the Alamo City, where they have gone 70-13 straight-up and 46-35-2 ATS at home in the regular season off a loss. Last year, these two teams met in the Playoffs, and the Spurs were swept 4 games to none by the Warriors. But one of the things I love to do is play on certain teams with revenge from a Playoff series defeat the previous year. And the Spurs fall into my very best Playoff revenge angle, which is 30-1 ATS since 1991. Moreover, San Antonio lost its last game by 14 points to Boston. But it's 37-18 ATS in the regular season at home off a loss by 14+ points, including 17-3 ATS when not favored by more than 5 points. Take San Antone. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-02-17 | Northern Illinois v. Toledo -8 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
At 6 pm, our selection is on the Toledo Rockets minus the points over Northern Illinois. Both of these teams come into tonight's game with identical 4-0 Mid-American Conference records, so this game will go a long way toward determining the West Division's representative in the MAC Championship game next month. Toledo blew out Ball State last week, 58-17, and is 11-1 ATS its last 12 off a win by 17+ points, including 8-0 ATS as a favorite. And it's 29-7 ATS as a favorite of less than 21 points after cover the spread in its previous game by 8+ points. Finally, home teams off a SU/ATS win, that average more than 38.63 ppg on offense (thru the season's first 7 games), are 173-106 ATS in the regular season in the past 25 years. Take Toledo. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-01-17 | Kings +13 v. Celtics | Top | 86-113 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings + the points over Boston. After covering their first two games to kick off the season, the Kings have lost their last five games -- both SU and ATS. But the Kings now fall into a 284-200 ATS system of mine. Meanwhile, the Celts are on a 5-game win streak, but are a poor 3-18 ATS when they've won their previous four games. Take Sacramento. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-01-17 | Pacers v. Cavs -10 | Top | 124-107 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 25 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers minus the points over Indiana. The Cavaliers have dropped three straight games, and now own a losing record, at 3-4 on the season. I love them to bounce back tonight, as LeBron James' teams have cashed 72% in his career as home favorites off back to back losses when matched up against foes off back to back wins. Take Cleveland. |
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11-01-17 | Hawks +8 v. 76ers | Top | 109-119 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 25 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks + the points over Philadelphia. The 76ers have not been favored by this many points since March 30, 2013 (a span of 344 games), so it's virgin territory for the Sixers under coach Brett Brown. Philly is a poor 178-228 ATS when favored at home vs. foes not off SU/ATS wins. Take Atlanta. |
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10-31-17 | Pistons v. Lakers +4 | Top | 93-113 | Win | 100 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the LA Lakers + the points over the Detroit Pistons. We're two weeks into the NBA season, and the league's two best records belong to the Memphis Grizzlies (5-2) and Detroit Pistons (5-2). Detroit also owns the best pointspread mark, as it is 6-1 ATS, including back-to-back upset wins on the weekend over the Clippers and Warriors. And Detroit was installed as an underdog of +8.5 and +14.5 in those two games! Tonight, the Pistons will finish their West Coast road trip with a game against Lonzo Ball's Lakers at Staples Center. And this game is a fantastic spot to fade the Pistons, especially given that the Lakers will enter the contest off blowout losses to the Raptors and Jazz. Since 1990, NBA teams, like Detroit, off back to back upset wins as an underdog of +8 or more points, are a poor 22-41-1 ATS, including 1-11 ATS vs. foes off back-to-back SU/ATS losses. Take the Lakers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-31-17 | Kings +5 v. Pacers | Top | 83-101 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 45 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings + the points over the Indiana Pacers. Sacramento opened the season with two straight ATS wins, but is 0-4 SU/ATS over its last four games. But I love them to get the $$$ vs. Indiana, as Sacramento falls into a 200-131 ATS system of mine, which plays on certain road teams off SU/ATS losses. In their last game, the Pacers upset the San Antonio Spurs, as 6.5-point underdogs, to level their record at 3-3 on the year. Unfortunately, this season, .500 (or better) NBA teams have gone just 3-19-1 ATS off an upset win, including 0-11-1 ATS vs. opponents with a losing record. Take the points with the Kings. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-29-17 | Steelers v. Lions +3 | Top | 20-15 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 34 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over Pittsburgh.  This Sunday night matchup features two teams with Playoff aspirations. The Detroit Lions are 3-3, while the Pittsburgh Steelers are 5-2. And I certainly have all the confidence in the Steelers, as they were my preseason pick (at 12-1 odds) to win this year's Super Bowl. But this is a great spot to go against them as a road favorite at Detroit. The Lions do come into this game off back to back SU/ATS losses, but gained an advantage by having last week off to rest, and re-group. And rested underdogs off a loss have cashed over 57% vs. unrested foes off a win since 1991. Likewise, in matchups between non-losing teams, it's been extremely profitable (67.5%) over the years to take a team off back to back SU/ATS losses vs. a foe off back to back SU/ATS wins, so that also bodes well for Jim Caldwell's crew on Sunday. But the clincher for me is that Detroit has covered the pointspread by an average of 4.5 ppg this season, while the Steelers have failed to cover by an average of 0.85 ppg. And home underdogs off a SU/ATS loss have cashed a staggering 63% of the time over the past 38 years if they also owned an average pointspread differential of +4.29 (or better). Take Detroit. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-29-17 | Raiders +3 v. Bills | Top | 14-34 | Loss | -135 | 61 h 45 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Raiders + the points over the Buffalo Bills, as Oakland falls into 145-67, 23-0 and 63-18 ATS systems of mine, based on various season statistics. The Raiders are sitting on a losing, 3-4 record, in no small part due to an injury suffered by QB Derek Carr earlier this season. But Carr is healthy, and back under center now. And he led the Raiders to a thrilling, last-second win last Thursday vs. division rival, Kansas City. Oakland still has much work to do if it is to get back into the Playoff picture, so it needs to go into Buffalo and get the upset win. I believe it will, as Oakland is 28-17-1 ATS its last 46 as road underdogs, while Buffalo is a wallet-busting 7-21 ATS at home off a win, including 1-9 ATS vs. non-winning teams. Take the points with Oakland. NFL Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-29-17 | Colts +10.5 v. Bengals | Top | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 19 h 1 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts + the points over Cincinnati. Last week, the Colts were blown out, 27-0, at home by Jacksonville, while Cincy lost, 29-14, at Pittsburgh. That 27-0 defeat, though, has triggered my very best "Blowout Bounce-back" system, which is 138-61 ATS since 1980 -- and 5-0 already this season, including a win two weeks ago on the Cardinals over the Bucs after Arizona was blown out by 27 in Philly the previous week. For the season, the Colts are 2-5, and are certainly in the league's lower tier so long as QB Andrew Luck remains sidelined. But they generally rebounc off losses, as they're 3-1 ATS already this season off a loss, and 29-9 ATS off their last 38 defeats (including a perfect 7-0 ATS when getting more than 6 points)! Finally, NFL teams also tend to react well to being shutout at home in their previous games, as they're 57-36-2 ATS in that situation since 1980, including 33-9 ATS vs. non-division foes if our team isn't getting 13+ points. Take the Colts. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-29-17 | Vikings v. Browns +10.5 | Top | 33-16 | Loss | -130 | 16 h 40 m | Show |
At 9:30 am, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over the Minnesota Vikings. We played on the Browns last week, as a home underdog vs. Tennessee, and got the cash when Cleveland fell, 12-9, in overtime, as a 6-point dog. This week, the Browns have been installed as an even bigger underdog vs. the Vikings, in this early game played in London, England. In the NFL, it's extremely dangerous to lay this many points away from home. Indeed, since 1995, NFL underdogs of +9 or more points have covered 61% of the time (107-69 ATS) at home, or on neutral fields, including 26-16 ATS if our underdog is (like Cleveland) winless on the season. That doesn't bode well for Minnesota on Sunday. Nor does the fact that the Vikings have covered just 32 of 90 when favored by 7+ points in the regular season. Take Cleveland + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-28-17 | San Diego State v. Hawaii +9.5 | Top | 28-7 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 32 m | Show |
At 11:15 pm, our selection is on the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors + the points over San Diego State. Hawaii does come into this game off a 37-26 win over San Jose, but it failed to cover the spread in that game, and has dropped five straight to the number, overall. But we'll step in and take the points with Hawaii, as it falls into an 85% ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off 5+ ATS losses. Also, the Rainbow Warriors are a solid 22-9 ATS as a home dog (or PK) off a win, while the Aztecs are a money-burning 8-15 ATS as a favorite away from home vs. .401 (or better) teams. Take Hawaii. |
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10-28-17 | USC -3 v. Arizona State | Top | 48-17 | Win | 100 | 49 h 45 m | Show |
At 10:45 pm, our selection is on the USC Trojans minus the points over Arizona State. USC is 6-2 this season, but hasn't made many friends in Vegas, as it's covered just once (vs. Stanford), and enters this game on a six-game ATS losing streak. Arizona State, on the other hand, is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS its last four (all Pac-12 Conference games), including upset wins in each of its two previous games (as 17.5 and 9.5-point underdogs). But those last two upset wins set up our play on Saturday, as NCAA teams off back to back upset wins as an underdog of more than 9 points are a poor 36.6% ATS since 1980. Additionally, USC is a strong 22-9 ATS on the road off a straight-up loss. Take Southern Cal minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-28-17 | Pistons +7 v. Clippers | Top | 95-87 | Win | 100 | 28 h 55 m | Show |
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Pistons + the points over the Los Angeles Clippers. Blake Griffin nailed a 3-pointer as time expired to upset the Trail Blazers, 104-103, in Rip City on Thursday. But off that huge win, I look for a letdown tonight, at home, vs. Stan Van Gundy's Pistons. And even though Detroit isn't undefeated like the Clippers, it has played even better than its 3-2 record would indicate, as it's 4-1 ATS. Meanwhile, the Clippers are an atrocious 26-48 ATS off four straight covers, and also fall into a negative 31-65 ATS system of mine which fades certain teams on a win streak. Finally, .500 (or better) teams off an upset win are a poor 1-16 ATS this season. Take Detroit. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-28-17 | Arkansas State v. New Mexico State +3 | Top | 37-21 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 11 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico State Aggies + the points over Arkansas State. The Red Wolves have won and covered four in a row in this series. But they were favored by more than 14 points in the three previous games. It's a much different story for this game, as the point spread indicates the game should be very competitive. And College Football teams have covered just 36% since 1995 if they were playing on the road vs. a revenge-minded team which had lost SU/ATS each of the three previous games, if our road team was favored by more than 10 points in those three games, but is not favored by 5+ points for the current game. New Mexico St. also had last week off, so it will be playing this game with an extra week of rest. And New Mexico State has cashed 80% when playing with rest, if it was off a win, and its foe was unrested. Take New Mexico State. |
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10-28-17 | Mississippi State v. Texas A&M +1.5 | Top | 35-14 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 27 m | Show |
At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Texas A&M Aggies + the points over Mississippi State. Both teams are 5-2 on the season, and come into this game off SEC Conference wins. The Bulldogs blew out Kentucky, 45-7, at home last week, while Texas A&M upset Florida two weeks ago, 19-17, as a 3.5-point underdog. The Aggies' extra week off is a big factor for me in this game, as Texas A&M falls into one of my best College Football "Rest" angles, which is 101-45 ATS since 1990. Moreover, since 1980, the Aggies are a strong 18-3 SU and 14-5 ATS at home when playing with rest vs. an unrested foe. And they're also 14-2 ATS at home as an underdog (or PK) vs. conference foes off a SU/ATS win. Take the points with the home underdog Aggies. |
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10-28-17 | UAB +12.5 v. Southern Miss | Top | 30-12 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the UAB Blazers + the points over Southern Miss. The Blazers lost at Charlotte in their last game, 25-24, as a 9.5-point favorite. But they now fall into a bounce-back system of mine which is 90-36 ATS. Take the points with UAB. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-28-17 | TCU v. Iowa State +6.5 | Top | 7-14 | Win | 100 | 46 h 8 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Iowa State Cyclones + the points over TCU. Both teams come into this big game with strong records. Iowa State is 5-2 (3-1 in Conference), and has won and covered its last three games. Meanwhile, the Horned Frogs have opened the season with seven straight wins (4-0 in Conference), and held their last two opponents (Kansas, Kansas State) to 6 points, combined! Unfortunately, NCAA teams have been awful on the road if they held each of their previous two opponents to 6 points or less, and their opponent is off a SU/ATS win. Since November 1981, our road teams have covered just 19 of 66 in this role. Iowa State's also 7-2 its last 9 as home dogs. Finally, 7-0 (or better) teams are a wallet-busting 18% ATS since 1990 as road favorites of more than 6 points vs. foes that have both a winning SU and winning ATS record. Take Iowa State. |
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10-28-17 | UCLA +17.5 v. Washington | Top | 23-44 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 8 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins + the points over Washington. The Huskies lost for the first time this season in their last game -- a 13-7 defeat at Arizona State -- after opening the 2017 campaign with six straight wins. Off that first defeat, we'll fade the Huskies, as they fall into negative 45-94 and 22-65 ATS "Bubble Burst" systems of mine that fade certain teams off their initial loss of the season (following 5+ wins to open the year). Even worse: the Huskies are a woeful 6-23 ATS their last 29 home games priced from -9.5 to -21 points. Take UCLA. |
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10-28-17 | Penn State v. Ohio State -6 | Top | 38-39 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 4 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Penn State. The schedule-maker certainly didn’t do the Nittany Lions any favors when it gave them back to back games against Michigan and Ohio State. And even worse for Penn State is the fact that Ohio State had last week off, so it will be very well-rested for this game against the undefeated Nittany Lions. I love Ohio State to blow out Penn State, as coach Urban Meyer’s teams have been terrific when playing with rest. They’ve gone 27-8 in this situation, including a perfect 6-0 ATS vs. undefeated opponents. Additionally, the Buckeyes have been on quite a roll over their last three games. They covered all three, while scoring 56, 62 and 56 points, and winning by an average of 48.67 points per game. And College Football teams that scored 168 or more points over their three previous games, combined, have gone 56-24 ATS in the regular season since 1998. Take the Buckeyes minus the points. |
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10-28-17 | Virginia +1.5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 14-31 | Loss | -102 | 2 h 48 m | Show |
At 12:30 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Cavaliers + the points over Pitt, as UVa falls into an 161-87 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off upset losses (Virginia was blown out as a 7-point favorite last week, at home, by Boston College). Take UVa to rebound off that defeat. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-28-17 | Louisville v. Wake Forest +3 | Top | 32-42 | Win | 100 | 44 h 21 m | Show |
At 12:20 pm, our selection is on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons + the points over Louisville. The Cardinals earned their biggest win of the season last week when they upset the Florida State Seminoles, as a 6.5-point underdog. But off that win, I expect a big letdown on Saturday in Winston-Salem against a Demon Deacons squad has lost its three previous games. Notwithstanding its recent performance, Wake Forest is still 4-3 on the season, and needs to win two of its final five games to gain bowl eligibility. Wake's schedule is difficult down the stretch, so winning this game is critical. For technical support, Louisville falls into a negative 129-200 ATS situation that goes against road teams off upset wins as 6-point (or greater) underdogs. And the Demon Deacons also fall into 72-32 and 88-29 ATS Conference revenge angles of mine (the Deacons do play with revenge, as they lost 44-12 to the Cardinals last season). Finally, the Cardinals are a horrid 0-11 ATS the past 17 years off an upset win when not getting 3+ points! Yikes. Take Wake Forest. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-28-17 | Oklahoma State v. West Virginia +7.5 | Top | 50-39 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 20 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the WVU Mountaineers + the points over Oklahoma State, as WVU falls into a 30-0 ATS system of mine which plays on certain underdogs +7 or more points. Take WVU. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-27-17 | Thunder -1.5 v. Wolves | Top | 116-119 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the OKC Thunder over the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Thunder were upset, at home, 115-113, earlier this week by the T-Wolves. But I look for Billy Donovan's men to turn the tables on Minnesota tonight, as OKC falls into a 64.4% ATS revenge system of mine. Moreover, OKC is an awesome 65-34-1 ATS when playing with revenge from an upset defeat. And the T-Wolves are a poor 24-40 ATS at home when playing a revenge-minded foe whom the T-Wolves upset in the previous meeting. Take Oklahoma City. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-27-17 | Florida State -3.5 v. Boston College | Top | 3-35 | Loss | -125 | 23 h 60 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles minus the points over Boston College. The Eagles come into this game off back to back wins, and five straight covers. Meanwhile, the Seminoles are a shocking 2-4 SU and 0-5-1 ATS. But I like Florida State to get the $$$ on Friday. Since 1980, teams off 5 ATS defeats are 55-29 ATS vs. foes off 3+ ATS wins. Take Florida State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-26-17 | Toledo v. Ball State +25 | Top | 58-17 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 38 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Ball State Cardinals + the points over Toledo. The Cardinals come into tonight's game on a 4-game losing streak. And they're also 0-4-1 ATS their last five games (failing to cover by an average of 23.1 ppg). Meanwhile, Toledo's off 3 straight wins, and two straight covers. The knee-jerk reaction might be to lay the points with the Rockets. But Ball State falls into a 179-120 ATS system of mine which plays on certain underdogs off back to back SU/ATS losses vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins. Likewise, Mid-American Conference home underdogs have cashed 63.4% if they are off back to back SU/ATS losses, and their opponent is off a win. And College Football teams have won 64.1% the last 29 years if they failed to cover the pointspread by more than 15 points in each of their three previous games. Take Ball State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-25-17 | Grizzlies v. Mavs +5 | Top | 94-103 | Win | 100 | 18 h 20 m | Show |
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks + the points over the Memphis Grizzlies. David Fizdale's crew is 3-0 this season, including upset wins over Golden State and Houston in their last two games. And Memphis was an underdog of 8+ points in each of those two games. The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the Grizzlies tonight, especially given that Dallas has lost its last two games by double-digits. But NBA teams off back to back upset wins as 8-point (or greater) underdogs have covered just 35.4% since 1990, including 1-10 ATS since January 6, 2014. Take Dallas. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-24-17 | Bulls +14.5 v. Cavs | Top | 112-119 | Win | 100 | 4 h 53 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bulls + the points over the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Cavs are just 1-2 ATS this season, and come into this game off an upset loss -- at home, no less -- at the hands of the Orlando Magic. Cleveland was favored by 11.5 points in that ballgame, so its ATS loss lowered its regular season record as a favorite by more than 10 points to 15-24 ATS its last 39. And, yes, it's true that many teams often bounce back from upset losses, or blowout losses. But this current edition of the Cavs isn't one of those teams. Indeed, they're 0-9 ATS their last nine off an upset home loss! And they're also just 15-34-1 ATS off a loss by more than 7 points (including 1-10 ATS their last 11). Finally, Chicago falls into one of my favorite NBA systems, which plays on certain teams off losses, which is 68-19 ATS since 1990. Take the Bulls + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-23-17 | 76ers +3.5 v. Pistons | Top | 97-86 | Win | 100 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia 76ers + the points over Detroit. The Pistons have the best pointspread record (along with the Utah Jazz) in the league, as they're 3-0 ATS. Meanwhile, Philadelphia is 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS after getting blown out, 128-94, on Saturday in Toronto. But this is a great spot to go against Detroit, as NBA teams that are undefeated ATS (with a 3-0 or better ATS record) are a soft 30-63 ATS when not getting more than three points, including 3-17 ATS against an opponent off a double-digit loss. And Philly is 22-8 ATS off a defeat on the road. Take the points with the 76ers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-22-17 | Falcons +3.5 v. Patriots | Top | 7-23 | Loss | -110 | 87 h 45 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons + the points over New England. These two teams met in last year's Super Bowl, and the Falcons absolutely blew the game, as they were up 28-3, but lost 34-28. We had a big play on New England in that game, but we'll switch gears and take the points with the Falcons in this re-match. Certainly, this is the most important game on the Falcons' schedule this season, as they no doubt want to avenge that stunning defeat. And I believe they'll get it, as they fall into a 19-0 ATS Playoff revenge system of mine (the same angle I used as a basis for my play earlier this season on the Houston Texans +13.5 over New England). Also, underdogs have cashed 83% when playing an opponent off a win, which defeated them in the Super Bowl in the previous meeting between the two teams. Even better for Atlanta: it falls into 87-34 and 151-66 ATS "bounce-back" systems of mine that play on certain teams to rebound off upset losses (Atlanta lost as a 14-point favorite to Miami last week). Finally, road teams that lost outright as favorites of -11.5 (or more points) are an awesome 88% ATS since 1986 vs. non-division foes, provided they weren't getting more than 7 points. Take Atlanta. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-21-17 | Blazers v. Bucks -3 | Top | 110-113 | Push | 0 | 17 h 43 m | Show |
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over the Portland Trail Blazers. This is tough situational spot for the Blazers, who have been saddled with three straight road games to start the season. And they have to play tonight's game without rest, as they were in Indiana yesterday to play the Pacers. Meanwhile, Milwaukee will be at home for the 2nd straight night, as it was upset by Cleveland, 116-97, on Friday. We'll fade Portland, as the Blazers fall into negative 20-62 and 18-47 ATS systems of mine that go against certain unrested teams off wins. Additionally, Milwaukee's 10-2 ATS its last 12 vs. Portland. And the Bucks are also 64.7% ATS over the past 28 years off an upset loss, if they're matched up against unrested winning teams off back to back wins. Take Milwaukee. NBA HIGH ROLLER! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-21-17 | Kansas +39 v. TCU | Top | 0-43 | Loss | -107 | 20 h 41 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Kansas Jayhawks + the points over TCU. The Horned Frogs are 6-0, and ranked #4 in the country (after starting the season unranked). But TCU is 0-3 ATS this season when laying 8 or more points. And it's also a horrid 0-10 ATS its last 10 games at home. That doesn't bode well for laying this many points. Also, Kansas happened to lose by 45 points last week at Iowa State. But Big 12 teams generally bounce back off blowout losses by 45+ points, as they've cashed 63% since over the past 21 years. Finally, undefeated teams, with a record of 5-0 (or better) are an awful 35% ATS since 1980 at home vs. foes that failed to cover the spread by 20+ points in their previous game. Take Kansas + the points. NCAA Road Warrior Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-21-17 | USC +4 v. Notre Dame | Top | 14-49 | Loss | -115 | 49 h 40 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Southern Cal Trojans + the points over Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish have been installed as a home favorite vs. the Trojans, and I can’t pass up taking the points with USC. First, Pac-12 single-digit underdogs are a super 152-107 ATS vs. non-conference foes since 1980, so that bodes well for USC. Also, Southern Cal has gone 1-6 ATS in its seven games this season, including 0-5 ATS its last five, while Notre Dame has won and covered four straight. Now, on the surface, that may not seem like a good thing. But pointspread failures also create value and opportunity, and that’s the situation here, on the road at Notre Dame. Indeed, teams off 4 or more pointspread losses are a super 73.3% ATS since 1980 vs. non-conference foes off 4 (or more) pointspread wins, including 9-0-1 ATS the last 10 when the game was competitively-priced with a pointspread less than 7 points. Finally, the Fighting Irish are an awful 19-41 ATS as home favorites vs. winning opposition, including 4-18 ATS vs. foes with a losing pointspread record. Take Southern California + the points. NCAA Non-Conference Game of the Month. Good luck, as always…Al McMordie. |
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10-21-17 | UL-Monroe +5 v. South Alabama | Top | 23-33 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 29 m | Show |
At 5 pm, our selection is on the Louisiana Monroe Warhawks plus the points over South Alabama. The Jaguars shocked Troy State last week, 19-8, as a 19-point underdog, to improve their record to 2-4 on the season. And off that win, South Alabama has been installed as a favorite vs. the 3-3 Warhawks. Unfortunately, College Football teams generally suffer letdowns following upsets as a 14-point (or greater) underdog the previous week, and especially when matched up against .500 (or better) opponents, as they've cashed just 40% since 1980. Even worse: the Jaguars have covered just 1 of their last 10 at home when favored by 4+ points. Take Louisiana Monroe. |
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10-21-17 | North Texas v. Florida Atlantic -3.5 | Top | 31-69 | Win | 102 | 20 h 25 m | Show |
At 5 pm, our selection is on the Florida Atlantic Owls minus the points over North Texas. The Mean Green come into this game off back to back upset wins (over Texas San Antonio and Southern Miss), which moved their record to 4-2 on the season. But those two upsets have placed North Texas in a negative system of mine which has covered just 31% ATS since 1980 (including 0-9 ATS its last 9). What we want to do is go against any road underdog off back to back upset wins, if it's now playing a conference foe off a double-digit conference win. With the Owls, indeed, off a 58-28 blowout win over Old Dominion, we'll lay the points with Florida Atlantic on Saturday. |
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10-21-17 | Kentucky +11.5 v. Mississippi State | Top | 7-45 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 21 m | Show |
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats + the points over Mississippi State. Kentucky is off to a great start this season, as it's won five of its six games, with its only loss by a single point to the Florida Gators. And the Wildcats led by 13 points in the 4th quarter vs. Florida, but gave up two late touchdowns (including the last one with just 43 seconds left) to succumb, 28-27. With that as a backdrop, it's hard to pass up taking double-digits with Kentucky, given that the Bulldogs are an awful 14-25 ATS as a home favorite of -10 (or more) points, including 0-6 ATS vs. foes off a win by 6+ points. Even better: Kentucky had last week off, so it will be well-rested, while the Bulldogs had to play a game vs. BYU. And rested SEC Conference teams are a super 88-60 ATS on the road vs. non-rested conference foes, including 37-19 ATS when catching 8+ points. Finally, the Wildcats fall into a 101-41 ATS System of mine which plays on certain rested teams. Take Kentucky. SEC Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-21-17 | Boston College v. Virginia -6.5 | Top | 41-10 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 56 m | Show |
At 12:30 pm, our selection is on Virginia minus the points over Boston College. The Eagles upset Louisville, 45-42, as an 18.5-point underdog last week. Unfortunately, NCAA teams off upset wins the previous week, as an underdog of 14+ points, are an awful 40% ATS since 1980 vs. .500 (or better) opponents. With Virginia 5-1 on the season, including 4-0 SU/ATS its last four, we'll lay the points with the Cavaliers. |
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10-21-17 | Akron v. Toledo -16 | Top | 21-48 | Win | 100 | 15 h 23 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Toledo Rockets minus the points over Akron. The Zips pulled off a huge upset last weekend when they went into Western Michigan and won outright, 14-13, as a 12.5-point underdog. That also was Akron's 3rd straight win (and fourth straight cover). But we'll fade Akron at Toledo on this Saturday, as underdogs of +3 (or more) points, off an outright win as a double-digit underdog, and on a 4-game (or better) ATS win streak, have covered just 28% over the past 38 years vs. .666 (or better) foes. Meanwhile, Toledo's a perfect 6-0 ATS at home vs. foes off upset wins. And Akron's a horrid 0-10 ATS off an upset win, if its W/L percentage was .500 (or better). Take Toledo. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-21-17 | Idaho v. Missouri -13.5 | Top | 21-68 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Missouri Tigers minus the points over Idaho. After struggling in their first four games, where they went 1-3 straight-up, and 0-4 ATS (failing to cover by 21.0 ppg), the Missouri Tigers have cashed the last two weeks in Vegas, as they lost again straight-up, but snuck inside the number vs. Kentucky and Georgia. So, the fact that Idaho is coming into town (rather than an SEC Conference foe) must be a welcome sight for the Tigers, as they no doubt would love to snap their 5-game losing streak. Missouri has been installed as a double-digit home favorite, and it is in its best pointspread role on Saturday. Since 1997, Missouri is a perfect 13-0 SU/ATS at home when favored by 13+ points, if it lost its previous game! And it's won those games by an average margin of 30.69 ppg, and covered by an average of 9.64. Lay the points with Mizzou. High Noon Hanging. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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10-20-17 | Colorado State v. New Mexico +7.5 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 23 h 1 m | Show |
At 10:15 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico Lobos + the points over Colorado State. The Lobos were shut out last week by Fresno State, 38-0, as a 2.5-point favorite. That was by far the worst game the Lobos have played this season. Indeed, they had covered the pointspread in each of their three games prior to that upset loss. The good news is that College Football teams generally bounce back from such poor games, and especially if they were a reliable team against the spread theretofore. For technical support, consider that home teams off losses, that failed to cover by 35+ points in that loss, are 72.2% ATS since 1980 if they also have a winning ATS record on the season. Take the Lobos. Mountain West Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-20-17 | Lakers v. Suns -3 | Top | 132-130 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 20 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns minus the points over the Los Angeles Lakers. The Suns stunk up the joint on opening night, as they lost by 48 points to the Portland Trail Blazers. Not surprisingly, it was the worst loss in the Suns' 50-year franchise history, and also the worst opening night loss by any team in the 72-year history of the NBA. Of course, one of the things I love to do is play on teams off blowout losses, and especially when our team is favored by 7 points or less (or PK). Such teams have cashed 76.9% since 1990. Even better: the Suns are 21-10 ATS the last 31 meetings between these two clubs, including 13-4 ATS at home. Take the Suns. NBA High Roller Winner! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-20-17 | Western Kentucky v. Old Dominion +10 | Top | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 17 h 26 m | Show |
At 6 pm, our selection is on the Old Dominion Monarchs + the points over Western Kentucky. Old Dominion is 2-4 SU and has dropped its last 4 games (including a 35-3 blowout at Marshall last week), while the Hilltoppers are on a 3-game win streak. But in Vegas, Western Kentucky has burned just as much money as Old Dominion, as each team is just 1-5 against the spread. We'll take the points with Old Dominion, as home teams have covered a fantastic 79% of conference games since 1980 if they lost their three previous games, and failed to cover their most recent game by more than 12 points, while their opponent won their three previous games, but owned a losing ATS record on the season. Take Old Dominion. NCAA Elite Info. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-19-17 | Chiefs v. Raiders +3 | Top | 30-31 | Win | 100 | 15 h 22 m | Show |
At 8:25 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Raiders + the points over Kansas City. We played against the Chiefs last week, and got the $$$ with Pittsburgh. And we'll play against them once again, tonight, in Oakland, as the Chiefs fall into negative 115-206, 208-281, 126-20, 156-240 and 67-147 ATS systems of mine. Additionally, Oakland comes into tonight's game off an upset loss last week vs. the Chargers, and four straight losses overall (both straight-up and ATS). Now, on the surface, this may not seem like a good thing. But consider that home teams are 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS on Thursday nights off back to back losses, if they were upset in their previous game, and now face a division rival. Moreover, the Raiders are 25-14-1 ATS as AFC West division dogs off back to back losses, including 14-2 ATS when priced from +2 to + 6 points (and 9-0 ATS if their foe is also off a loss). Finally, teams off 4 SU/ATS losses have cashed 67.9% the past 18 years if they won at least 10 games in the previous regular season, while teams with a current W/L percentage better than .300 have cashed 63.2% at home off 4 SU/ATS losses. Take the points with the Raiders. AFC West Game of the Year! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-18-17 | Rockets v. Kings +8 | Top | 105-100 | Win | 100 | 19 h 7 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings + the points over Houston. This situation is similar to one from last season. The San Antonio Spurs upset Golden State on Opening Night, as an 8.5-point underdog, and then traveled to play Sacramento in Game 2. The Spurs were favored by 9 points vs. the Kings and won the game (but failed to cover). Sacramento (by virtue of its proximity to Golden State) often played teams immediately after they played the Warriors, and the Kings were 6-2 ATS in those games last season, including a perfect 4-0 ATS when their foe was unrested. That, of course, is the situation tonight, as Houston upset the Warriors in Oakland, 122-121, as a 9.5-point underdog last night. And what clinches this play tonight is the fact that single-digit favorites are 0-13 ATS off an upset win in their opener, if they scored 105+ points in that Game 1 victory. Take Sacramento. NBA Elite Info Winner! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-17-17 | Celtics +3.5 v. Cavs | Top | 99-102 | Win | 100 | 43 h 36 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics over the Cleveland Cavaliers. Last year, the Cavs ousted Boston from the Playoffs. But we'll play on the Celts to avenge that defeat, as they fall into a 60% ATS NBA Playoff revenge angle of mine. Even better: our particular Playoff revenge angle zooms to 16-1-1 ATS if the game is Early in the season, and is competitively priced with a pointspread of 5 points or less! Boston's 5-1-1 ATS the last seven meetings in Cleveland. Take the points. NBA High Roller. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-16-17 | Colts v. Titans -6.5 | Top | 22-36 | Win | 100 | 3 h 31 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans minus the points over Indianapolis. The Titans were upset in each of their last two games -- 57-14 at Houston, and 16-10, at Miami. But they now return home to take on the Indianapolis Colts, who upended San Francisco last week, 26-23, as a 1-point underdog. And one of the things I love to do is take favorites of more than 6 points on Monday Night Football that return home off back to back road games. These teams have cashed 72% since 1980. Even worse for the Colts: they're a poor 35.7% ATS off an upset win vs. foes off an upset loss. Take Tennessee minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-15-17 | Steelers +5 v. Chiefs | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 61 h 10 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Steelers + the points over Kansas City. The Chiefs have played superb football this season, as they're 5-0 SU and ATS (covering by an average of 9.1 ppg), including an opening week win at New England. Pittsburgh, in contrast, has had an up-and-down season, as it's 3-2 SU, but 2-3 ATS (failing to cover by an average of 5.3 ppg), including a head-scratching home loss to Jacksonville last week. In that game, The Steelers were favored by 7.5, but lost 30-9 to the Jaguars, so they failed to cover the spread by a whopping 28.5 points. For the season, the Chiefs, then, have a pointspread differential of +14.4 compared to the Steelers. But this strong relative success sets up our play, as the Steelers fall into a 79-33-2 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams with a poor pointspread differential, as well as a 21-0 ATS subset of that general angle (which hasn't lost since 1992). Finally, the Steelers are 8-0-1 ATS when priced between +7 and -3 points after giving up 28+ points in their previous game. Take the Steelers + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-15-17 | Rams +2.5 v. Jaguars | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams + the points over the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Rams were upset at home last week by Seattle, and fell to 3-2 on the season. Meanwhile, the Jaguars upset Pittsburgh, 30-9, as a 7.5-point underdog in their previous game, and also have a 3-2 record this year. But that upset win has set up Jacksonville in several negative systems of mine, with records of 48-92 and 49-91 ATS since 1980. Even worse for Jacksonville: it's covered just 9 of 28 off upset wins since 2008, including five of 18 at home. Finally, .600 (or better) teams off upset losses have cashed 60.3% over the last 38 years vs. .600 (or better) foes off upset wins. Take the Rams + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-15-17 | Bucs v. Cardinals +2 | Top | 33-38 | Win | 100 | 19 h 39 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals over Tampa Bay. The Cardinals have started the season 2-3, and were blown out by 27 points in their last game by Philadelphia, 34-7. But one of the things I like to do in the NFL is play on home underdogs off blowout losses. Indeed, we saw on Monday night the Chicago Bears rebound off their 21-point loss to Green Bay to cover the number as a home dog vs. Minnesota. And, since 1980, teams off a loss by more than 20 points have gone 74-49 ATS as home underdogs if their opponent is also off a straight-up and against the spread loss. Also, I don’t believe Tampa Bay’s performance warrants that it be favored on the road. After all, it’s lost its last three games against the spread, and is just 2-2 straight-up this season. And the Buccaneers have covered just four of their last 18 games when favored on the road. Meanwhile, Arizona is 31-17 ATS its last 48 as home underdogs. Take the Cardinals. |
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10-15-17 | Browns +10 v. Texans | Top | 17-33 | Loss | -120 | 16 h 35 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over Houston. It's true that the Browns are winless on the season. But winless teams often confer value, and that's the case on this Sunday. Indeed, since 1980, winless teams, with an 0-5 (or worse) record, are 63% ATS vs. foes that have a win percentage better than .250, provided our winless team didn't cover the pointspread in its previous game. With the Browns off a SU/ATS loss to the Jets last week to fall to 0-5 this season, we'll grab the points in this game. Take Cleveland. |
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10-15-17 | San Jose State v. Hawaii -17 | Top | 26-37 | Loss | -118 | 54 h 16 m | Show |
At midnight, our selection is on the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors minus the points over San Jose St. Hawaii was upset by Nevada, 35-21, as a 5.5-point favorite last Saturday. And that loss extended Hawaii's SU/ATS losing streak to four games. But it's a super 63% ATS over the past 20 years off an upset defeat, while San Jose is a poor 29% ATS vs. foes off upset losses. Hawaii also falls into a 102-64 ATS system of mine, which plays on certain teams off back to back ATS losses. Finally, Hawaii will have a big advantage on the ground, as it averages 5.7 ypg (against foes that give up 4.9 ypr), while San Jose only rushes for 3.2 ypr (against a schedule of opponents that give up 4.0 ypr). And losing teams, favored by double-digits, that rush for at least 5.5 yards per carry have cashed 68% over the past 21 years vs. conference foes that don't rush for more than 3.5 yards per carry. Take the Rainbow Warriors. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-14-17 | UCLA -1.5 v. Arizona | Top | 30-47 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 11 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins over Arizona. Both of these Pac-12 schools are 3-2, with each coming into this game off wins over Colorado. UCLA played the Buffaloes two weeks ago (and, thus, are rested), while Arizona upset the Buffaloes in Boulder last Saturday. Unfortunately for Arizona, that upset win has triggered several negative systems of mine, with records of 23-90, 74-159 and 95-169. Also, the Wildcats are a very poor 2-17 ATS off an upset win when not getting 7+ points, including 0-10 ATS vs. .600 (or worse) opponents. Take UCLA. |
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10-14-17 | Michigan State v. Minnesota +4.5 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 51 h 47 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Golden Gophers + the points over Michigan State. This is a big letdown spot for the Spartans, who upset their rival -- the Michigan Wolverines -- in Ann Arbor last week, 14-10, as an 11-point underdog. The Spartans are now 4-1 on the season, while Minnesota is 3-2 after its loss to Purdue last Saturday. But .600 (or better) teams. off an upset win as a double-digit road underdog, are an awful 28% ATS on the road vs. foes off a loss since 1980. The Spartans are also 0-6 ATS their last six as road favorites. Take Minnesota. |
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10-14-17 | Utah v. USC -13 | Top | 27-28 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 31 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Southern Cal Trojans minus the points over Utah. Both teams come into this huge Pac-12 affair with one loss. The Utes fell by 3, at home, to Stanford, while USC lost at Washington St. Stanford is the only common opponent of these two teams, and the disparate results are illuminating. Indeed, USC blew out the Cardinal in Week 2, 42-24, as a 3.5-point favorite (and outgained them by 181 yards), while Utah lost last week, 23-20, as a 3-point underdog (and was outgained by 2 yards). The Trojans do come into this game off a win, however, as they bombed Oregon State, 38-10, but failed to cover the 33-point spread. I look for USC to register another blowout this week (and also cover the number), as the Trojans fall into a 64-24 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off pointspread defeats. Moreover, USC is 10-1 ATS at home as a favorite of 17 or less points off an ATS loss, while Utah is 0-8 ATS vs. Conference foes off back to back ATS defeats. Finally, it's certainly true that Utah is 4-0-1 ATS this season. But Utah's unblemished ATS record works to create line value for USC. And, unfortunately for Utah, Pac-12 road underdogs of +4 (or more) points are a poor 28% ATS over the past 22 years if they're undefeated ATS (at Game 4 forward). Lay the points with USC. Pac-12 Game of the Year. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-14-17 | Georgia State v. UL-Monroe -7 | Top | 47-37 | Loss | -100 | 44 h 19 m | Show |
At 5 pm, our selection is on Louisiana Monroe minus the points over Georgia State. The Warhawks are on a 3-game SU/ATS win streak after blowing out Texas State, 45-27, last week, as a 5.5-point road favorite. And they topped 50 points in their two games before that, with wins over Coastal Carolina (51-43) and La Lafayette (56-50). I won't step in front of this freight train, as home teams off 3 SU/ATS wins have cashed 61% since 1980 if they scored over 150 points combined in their three previous games. Take Louisiana Monroe. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-14-17 | Charlotte v. Western Kentucky -16 | Top | 14-45 | Win | 100 | 41 h 51 m | Show |
At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers minus the points over Charlotte. The 49ers are winless this season (0-6), while Western Kentucky is 3-2, including SU wins in its last two games. But neither team has had much success in Vegas, as the 49ers are 2-4 ATS (covering their last two games), while the Hilltoppers are 0-5 ATS. But I love Western Kentucky to get its first ATS win of the year, as home teams off a win have cashed 71.7% since 1980 vs. winless teams with an 0-6 (or worse) record, if our winless team is off a pointspread win. Also, Western Kentucky is 16-3 ATS in Conference games off back to back wins, if the pointspread was less than 30 points. Take the Hilltoppers. Conference USA Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-14-17 | Auburn v. LSU +7.5 | Top | 23-27 | Win | 100 | 38 h 25 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the LSU Tigers + the points over Auburn. LSU has disappointed this season, with surprising losses to both Mississippi State and Troy State, while Auburn has played well, with its only defeat being a narrow 14-6 loss to defending Champ, Clemson. But Auburn's three SEC victories (Missouri, Mississippi State, Ole Miss) were against teams that currently have a combined conference record of 1-7. And it's hard to make a case for Auburn as a big road favorite, given that it's lost its last 8 games at LSU. I really liked that LSU shook off its upset loss to Troy State with a 1-point road win last week at Florida (though LSU failed to cover the closing line of -1.5, and hasn't covered since its opening week shutout of BYU). Coach Ed Orgeron didn't hide the fact that the coaching staff had meetings to fix problems on the staff, and one of the things that came out of the sessions was Orgeron's agreement to not micro-manage his coordinators. Offensive coordinator Matt Canada was given freedom to run his full offense, and the team benefited last week. There were also two players-only meetings, and the LSU team played noticeably with more toughness and energy vs. Florida than it did to start the season. LSU falls into 52-25, 102-64 and 64-24 ATS Systems of mine that play on certain teams on ATS losing streaks. Don't be surprised if there's an upset in Baton Rouge on Saturday. Take the points. SEC GAME OF THE WEEK. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-14-17 | Toledo -7 v. Central Michigan | Top | 30-10 | Win | 100 | 43 h 50 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Toledo Rockets minus the points over Central Michigan. The Chippewas leveled their record at 3-3 after upsetting Ohio, 26-23, as a 10-point road underdog last week, while Toledo moved its mark to 4-1 after getting by Eastern Michigan, at home, 20-15. But it's hard for teams to pull off back to back upset wins, and I look for CMU to suffer a letdown on Saturday. For technical support, consider that home dogs have covered just 34% since 1980 off an outright win as a double-digit road underdog, if they're matched up against .800 (or better) foes. Even worse for CMU: it's 0-9 ATS as an underdog of +6 or more points off an upset win. Take Toledo. |
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10-14-17 | Virginia v. North Carolina +3.5 | Top | 20-14 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 38 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the North Carolina Tar Heels + the points over Virginia, as UNC falls into a 67% ATS system of mine. What we want to do is go against any team away from home off 3 ATS wins, if it's up against an opponent off 3 ATS losses, and the line is less than 11 points. And that's the situation today, as Virginia is off 3 ATS wins, while UNC is off 3 ATS losses. Take North Carolina. NCAA Roadkill. |
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10-14-17 | TCU v. Kansas State +6.5 | Top | 26-6 | Loss | -105 | 42 h 21 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Kansas State Wildcats plus the points over TCU. Last week, the Wildcats fell by 6, in overtime, to Texas, as a 5-point underdog, and are now 3-2 on the season. The Horned Frogs, meanwhile, are undefeated, at 5-0, and have been installed as a road favorite in Manhattan vs. K-State. However, TCU's been a very weak favorite of late, including 8-23 ATS since 2011 when priced as a favorite of less than 14 points. And Kansas State has been terrific as a home dog, with a 28-16 record since 1988, including 11-1 ATS off a SU/ATS loss.  Moreover, undefeated teams, with a 5-0 (or better) record, have cashed a paltry 31% since 1980 as road favorites of -2.5 (or more) points vs. .600 (or better) teams off a SU/ATS loss. Take the points with Kansas State on Saturday. |
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10-14-17 | South Carolina v. Tennessee -3 | Top | 15-9 | Loss | -115 | 36 h 41 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Tennessee Volunteers minus the points over South Carolina. In their last game, the Volunteers were blanked, 41-0, by Georgia, here at home. The Gamecocks, meanwhile blew out Arkansas, 48-22, in Columbia last Saturday. The knee-jerk reaction might be to take the points with South Carolina, given that they're 4-2 SU/ATS, while Tennessee is just 3-2 SU and 1-4 ATS on the season. But favorites off a 25-point (or worse) defeat have cashed a whopping 70.7% over the past 38 years vs. conference foes off a 25-point (or better) victory. But that's not the best part. If our favored team also has a .571 (or better) win percentage, then our 70.7% ATS system zooms to a nearly-perfect 14-1, 93% ATS. Also, .500 (or better) teams have gone 71% ATS at home since 1980 off a home shutout loss (and 78% in Conference games)! I look for the Vols to redeem themselves off their 41-0 home defeat. Lay the points with Tennessee. High Noon Hanging! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-09-17 | Vikings v. Bears +3.5 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 20 h 36 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over Minnesota. Last week, both the Vikings and Bears lost, as Minnesota was upset by Detroit, 14-7, while Chicago lost, 35-14, to Green Bay. Chicago's now 1-3, so coach John Fox has decided to make a change at signal caller. Thus, the Mitch Trubisky Era will start tonight at Soldier Field, and I love Chicago in a home dog role, as it falls into a 136-61 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off losses by 20+ points. Even worse for Minnesota: .500 (or better) teams off an upset loss have cashed just 35.4% on Monday nights the past 38 seasons. And the Bears are 25-7 ATS as a home dog (or PK) off a loss by 6+ points, if the Bears' win pct was less than .400. Also, NFC North Division underdogs have cashed 64 of 107 division games off a loss. Finally, the Vikings are a woeful 4-16 ATS at Chicago when not getting more than 3 points, including 0-9 ATS if the Vikings weren't off a SU/ATS win. Take Chicago. MNF Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-08-17 | Bills v. Bengals -3 | Top | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals minus the points over the Buffalo Bills. Last week, the Bills upset the previously undefeated Atlanta Falcons, 23-17, as an 8 point underdog. That moved the Bills' record to 3-1 on the season. But off that upset win, I look for a letdown in Cincy on Sunday. Indeed, since 1981, .680 (or better) teams off an upset win on the road as an 8-point (or greater) underdog have cashed an atrocious 15% of the time on the road. That doesn't bode well for the Bills on Sunday. And neither does the fact that Buffalo is 1-9 ATS as an underdog of 6 points or less off a win as a dog of more than 3 points. Finally, Cincy is 27-10 ATS when priced between +3 and -9.5 at home vs. a foe off an upset win, including 7-0 ATS if such foe was a dog of more than 6 points in its previous game. Take the Bengals. NFL Roadkill Play. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-08-17 | Chargers +3.5 v. Giants | Top | 27-22 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers + the points over the New York Giants. It's absolutely correct that the Chargers have burned money this season, as they're 0-4 straight-up, and 0-3-1 ATS. But their three ATS losses came at home. However, it's on the road where the Chargers have made friends in Vegas, as they're 44-22-5 ATS their last 71 when not laying 2+ points, including 29-6-4 ATS if the Chargers were not off a SU/ATS win! Take the Chargers. |
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10-08-17 | Jets v. Browns +1 | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns over the New York Jets. Last week, we played on the Jets as a home underdog vs. Jacksonville, and were rewarded with a 23-20 overtime victory. That also was New York’s 2nd straight upset win as a home underdog. Unfortunately, now the Jets go back on the road where they are 0-2 straight-up and against-the-spread this season. And while it’s true that the Browns were blown out at home by 24 points last week, and have yet to win a game this season, consider that teams off back to back losses are an awesome 77-49 ATS vs. foes off back to back upset wins, including 30-12 ATS at home vs. non-division foes. Moreover, home teams have also cashed 71% since 1980 off a home loss by 24 or more points when matched up against an opponent off back to back wins. Take Cleveland. |
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10-08-17 | Cardinals +6.5 v. Eagles | Top | 7-34 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 21 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals + the points over the Philadelphia Eagles, as Arizona falls into a 67% ATS system of mine, which plays on certain road underdogs that didn't cover the pointspread in their previous game. It's true that Philly is 3-1 on the season, but Arizona is a sensational 44-26 ATS vs. .750 (or better) teams, including 40-22 ATS as an underdog. Take Arizona. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-07-17 | Washington State v. Oregon +3 | Top | 33-10 | Loss | -116 | 52 h 5 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks over the Washington State Cougars. Mike Leach's Cougars upset previously undefeated Southern Cal last week, 30-27, as a 4.5-point underdog. Not surprisingly, teams that pull off such upsets generally have letdowns in their next game, and especially when going into revenge. Indeed, since 1980, teams off home upset wins over previously undefeated opponents have covered just 27.4% on the road when matched up against revenge-minded foes, if priced between -17 and +3.5 points! Last year, Washington State upset Oregon, 51-33, in Pullman, so the Ducks will be looking to avenge that upset defeat here, at Autzen Stadium, on Saturday. The Ducks are also a super 23-7 ATS at home when playing with revenge vs. conference foes, and not laying more than 20 points, including a perfect 7-0 ATS if they were favored by more than 2 points in that upset defeat the previous season. Take Oregon. NCAA Payback Payday. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-07-17 | Fresno State v. San Jose State +17 | Top | 27-10 | Push | 0 | 54 h 31 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the San Jose State Spartans + the points over Fresno St. The Spartans come into this home game off 4 straight losses (both SU and ATS), and are now 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS on the season. They've also failed to cover the spread by 14.58 ppg this season. But the good news for San Jose is that it's back home on Saturday, where it's gone 2-1 ATS this season. Also, home dogs off 4 straight ATS losses, that have an average pointspread differential of -14 ppg (or worse), are an awesome 72% ATS the past 33 years vs. .500 (or worse) opponents. Take the points with San Jose. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-07-17 | Alabama v. Texas A&M +27 | Top | 27-19 | Win | 100 | 53 h 21 m | Show |
At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Texas A&M Aggies + the points over the Alabama Crimson Tide. Alabama has certainly impressed over the past two weeks, with back to back blowout wins over Vanderbilt (59-0), as a 19-point favorite, and Ole Miss (66-3), as a 29-point favorite. But we will play against the Tide on Saturday, as undefeated road favorites of -11 (or more) points, with a 4-0 (or better) record, are a dreadful 0-19 ATS vs. foes off back to back wins, if our road favorite's average margin of victory for the season was 28.8 ppg (or better). Take the Aggies. |
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10-07-17 | Southern Miss +13.5 v. UTSA | Top | 31-29 | Win | 100 | 53 h 60 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Southern Miss Golden Eagles + the points over Texas San Antonio. After winning (and covering) each of their first three games this season, the Golden Eagles were upset at home, 43-28, by North Texas last week. Meanwhile, the Roadrunners blew out Texas St., 44-14, as a 13.5 point favorite. We'll take the points with Southern Miss, as winning teams have cashed 68.1% in regular season conference games over the past 33 years off a conference loss in which they failed to cover by 16+ points, if they're now double-digit dogs against a foe off a win, in which that foe covered the spread by 16+ points. Take Southern Miss. |
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10-07-17 | Colorado State v. Utah State +8 | Top | 27-14 | Loss | -105 | 49 h 30 m | Show |
At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Utah State Aggies + the points over Colorado State. Utah State comes into this game off back to back impressive wins. The Aggies routed San Jose 61-10 two weeks ago, and then blew out BYU 40-24 last Friday. I love playing on home underdogs that can score, and the Aggies certainly fit the bill as they're averaging 34.4 ppg through their first five games. And, since 1980, home dogs of more than 7 points that average 32+ ppg after at least 5 games, and are off momentum-building back to back wins, have cashed 72% (including 13-1 ATS the past 4 seasons). Take the Aggies. Mountain West Dog of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-07-17 | Maryland v. Ohio State -30 | Top | 14-62 | Win | 100 | 86 h 54 m | Show |
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Maryland. Last week, the Buckeyes shut out Rutgers, in Piscataway, 56-0. I won't step in front of Urban Meyer's men, here, at home, as College Football teams off a 33-point (or better) shutout road win are 38-15 ATS in the regular season vs. conference foes. Take Ohio State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-07-17 | Minnesota +4 v. Purdue | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -103 | 23 h 9 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Golden Gophers + the points over Purdue. The Gophers lost for the first time this season last week when they fell, 31-24, at home to Maryland, as a 13.5-point favorite. But I look for Minny to bounce back on Saturday, as .600 (or better) single-digit road underdogs have cashed 71.4% in conference games since 1980, if they lost as a double-digit home favorite the week before. Moreover, Purdue's covered just 31% over the past 38 years vs. winning Big 10 Conference foes off an upset loss. Take the points with Minnesota. NCAA Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-07-17 | Kent State +23.5 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 3-24 | Win | 100 | 85 h 14 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Kent State Golden Flashes + the points over Northern Illinois. The Huskies covered the pointspread for the 4th straight time last week when they fell by just six points to San Diego State (as a 9.5-point underdog). Unfortunately for Northern Illinois, its 4-0 ATS record sets it up in a very poor situation this weekend. Since 1980, teams off a pointspread win in Game 4, with an undefeated ATS record thru their first 4 games, are an awful 103-147 (41% ATS) in Conference games at Game 5 of the season. I look for Kent State to sneak in under this inflated number. Take the points. |
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10-07-17 | West Virginia +13.5 v. TCU | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 85 h 13 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers + the points over TCU. The Horned Frogs are 4-0 on the season following their upset win two weeks ago in Stillwater, where they shocked Oklahoma State, 44-31, as a 9.5-point underdog. This week, they'll have another high-octane offense with which to contend, as WVU has scored 56, 59 and 56 points in its last three games (all wins by 22+ points). We'll grab the points with the Mountaineers, as teams that scored 169+ points in their three previous games are an awesome 70.1% ATS in the regular season since 1998. Take WVU. |
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10-07-17 | Tulsa v. Tulane -4 | Top | 28-62 | Win | 100 | 80 h 55 m | Show |
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Tulane Green Wave minus the points over Tulsa. The Green Wave haven't had many winning seasons over the years (just 1 over the past 14 seasons, in fact), but are 2-2 thus far. In contrast, Tulsa's won 9 of its past 14 seasons, but is off to a 1-4 start. So, even though Tulane has not been favored in any of the 12 meetings over the past 12 seasons, and has lost 11 of those 12 games, it has been installed as the favorite this year. One factor in Tulane's favor is that it will be playing with rest, as it had last week off following its win two weeks ago vs. Army. And Tulane falls into a super 99-45 ATS system of mine which plays on certain rested, revenge-minded teams not favored by more than a touchdown. Also, the Green Wave are a fantastic 21-9 ATS as a home favorite, priced from -3 to -7 points. Lay it. NCAA Roadkill Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-06-17 | Boise State v. BYU +9 | Top | 24-7 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
At 10:15 pm, our selection is on the BYU Cougars + the points over Boise State. BYU comes into this game with an 0-5 ATS record, and that's created value for us. We'll grab the points, as Boise's an awful 3-12 ATS as a favorite. And the Broncos also fall into a negative 47-88 ATS system of mine which goes against certain road favorites when playing a revenge-minded foe. Finally, home dogs off 4 straight ATS losses, that have an average pointspread differential of -14 ppg (or worse), are an awesome 72% ATS the past 33 years vs. .500 (or worse) opponents. Take BYU. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-05-17 | Patriots -5 v. Bucs | Top | 19-14 | Push | 0 | 44 h 3 m | Show |
At 8:25 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over Tampa Bay. Last week, the Pats lost at home to the Carolina Panthers. But New England is the league's best franchise at bouncing back off losses. Indeed, Bill Belichick's crew is 43-7 SU and 37-13 ATS since Dec. 29, 2002 following a defeat (and also fall into 30-0, 35-1 and 29-1 ATS variations of this general angle). That's one reason to back Tom Brady & Co. on this Thursday. Another is that defending Super Bowl champs are 19-5 ATS on the road off a loss vs. .615 (or better) foes off a win. Take New England to blow out the Buccaneers. NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Year! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-02-17 | Redskins v. Chiefs -6.5 | Top | 20-29 | Win | 100 | 113 h 4 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Washington. The Chiefs opened this season with a dominant 42-27 win over the defending Super Bowl Champion Patriots, and haven't looked back since. They're now 3-0 SU and ATS following a win at the Chargers last Sunday. Some might look for KC to have a letdown, but not me. Indeed, since 1980, 3-0 NFL teams are 38-5 SU and 31-12 ATS at home vs. non-division foes, including 22-3 ATS if they happen to not be favored by 7+ points, and also 8-1 ATS vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins. Take the Chiefs. NFL Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-01-17 | Raiders +3 v. Broncos | Top | 10-16 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Raiders + the points over Denver. The Raiders were blown out by 17 points on the road at Washington last Sunday night. And they went into that game as a 3.5-point favorite. Interestingly, Denver also lost by double-digits on the road as a 3.5-point favorite. I’ll grab the points with Derek Carr & Co., as AFC West division teams are 120-78 ATS as road underdogs in divisional games off a straight-up loss, including 63-32 ATS if their opponent is also off a loss. And .666 (or better) teams have cashed 61% as road underdogs since 1980 off a loss by 14 or more points. Finally, over the past 15 years, the Broncos are a wallet-busting 12-29 ATS as home favorites vs. foe off a loss, including 1-10 ATS if the Broncos are also off a loss. Take Oakland. NFL Road Warrior Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-01-17 | Jaguars v. Jets +3.5 | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 82 h 1 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over Jacksonville. Last week, the Jaguars played the best game of any team over the past three years, when they won by 37 points (44-7), as a 3 point underdog, and thus covered by 40 points. Unfortunately for the Jaguars, teams that cover the spread by 40+ points have sustained their ATS success in their next game just 33% of the time since 1989 (and just 21% if they weren't favored by 3+ points in their previous game). That doesn't bode well for the Jaguars on Sunday. And neither does the fact that the Jags are just 26.6% since 1999 as road favorites off an upset win. Take the Jets. NFL Underdog Shocker. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-01-17 | Bills v. Falcons -7.5 | Top | 23-17 | Loss | -110 | 81 h 53 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons minus the points over the Buffalo Bills. Last week, the Bills stunned Denver, 26-16, as a 3-point underdog. But off that upset win, we'll fade the Bills on Sunday, as they fall into a wallet-busting 0-18 ATS system. What we want to do is play against any winning team, as a dog of more than 7 points, off a home win by more than 8 points, provided they weren't favored by 2+ points in that previous game. Take Atlanta. NFL Roadkill Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-30-17 | California +14 v. Oregon | Top | 24-45 | Loss | -115 | 68 h 27 m | Show |
At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the California Golden Bears + the points over Oregon. We played against Oregon last week, and took the 15 points with Arizona State, which upset the Ducks, in Tempe, 37-35. As i discussed last week, Oregon's schedule was rather weak to begin the season, so I wasn't very impressed with its 3-0 start. Of course, now, the Ducks are 3-1, and do return home, but I don't look for them to bounce back, as they fall into a nasty 0-23 ATS system, which plays against certain teams, favored by 7+ points in conference games, off a loss as a 14-point (or greater) favorite. Moreover, Oregon's just 3-10 ATS its last 13 off an upset loss as a road favorite, while California is 10-1 ATS vs. Conference foes off an upset loss, when Cal is priced from +6 to +16. Take California. NCAA Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-30-17 | Northern Illinois v. San Diego State -11 | Top | 28-34 | Loss | -107 | 70 h 37 m | Show |
At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the San Diego State Aztecs minus the points over Northern Illinois. The Huskies pulled off a huge upset as a double-digit dog in their last game, at Nebraska. But off that upset win, I look for a letdown at SDSU, as teams are 30% ATS since 1980 off an upset win as a double-digit dog, if they're now on the road against a winning, non-conference foe, which is also off a win. Take San Diego State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-30-17 | Nevada +10 v. Fresno State | Top | 21-41 | Loss | -115 | 69 h 3 m | Show |
At 10 pm, our selection is on the Nevada Wolf Pack + the points over Fresno State. The Bulldogs come into this game off back to back blowout losses (by 31 and 32 points), and have now been installed as a big favorite vs. Nevada. But Fresno has been awful when laying 7+ points, as it's covered just 16 of 50, including 1-10 ATS off back to back losses. Additionally, Fresno falls into negative 43-107 and 86-164 ATS systems of mine that fade certain teams off losses. Take Nevada. |
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09-30-17 | Clemson v. Virginia Tech +7.5 | Top | 31-17 | Loss | -110 | 90 h 10 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Tech Hokies + the points over Clemson. The Tigers' defense of their National Championship has gotten off to a strong start. Clemson is 4-0 straight-up, and 3-1 ATS, including SU/ATS wins over Auburn and Louisville. But I expect its win streak to be halted by the Hokies, as Va Tech is also 4-0, and has pitched shutouts in two of its four games. These two teams last met in the ACC Championship game last season, when Clemson vanquished Va Tech, 42-35. Unfortunately for the Tigers, defending National Champs are a soft 26-52 ATS away from home when off back-to-back wins, and not favored by 14+ points.  And home teams have cashed 79% when playing with revenge from a post-season defeat, if priced from -3.5 to +10 points. Finally, Virginia Tech is a solid 70-38 ATS as home dogs of more than a point, including 29-11 ATS when playing with revenge. Take Virginia Tech. NCAA Game of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-30-17 | North Texas v. Southern Miss -7.5 | Top | 43-28 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 2 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Southern Miss Golden Eagles minus the points over North Texas. These two teams have traded home wins (and covers) the past two seasons, with North Texas pulling the upset last season in Denton. This season, both teams are off to decent starts. Southern Miss has covered each of its three games this season (winning straight-up twice), including a 28-17 win two weeks ago at Louisiana Monroe (Southern Miss had last week off). North Texas is 2-2 (after going 5-8 last season), and won last week, at home, vs. UAB, but gave up 43 points in the process. And it has given up 54, 31 and 43 points in its three games this season vs. FBS (Division 1) schools. That doesn't bode well, here, vs. Southern Miss, as the Golden Eagles have cashed 86% since 1980 when playing with rest, if they owned a defense at least 11 ppg better than their foe. And North Texas is also 0-8 ATS when playing a rested opponent, if the Mean Green are priced from +4.5 to +11.5 points. Finally, Conference USA home teams are 27-11 ATS when rested, and playing with revenge vs. an unrested conference foe (including 21-5 ATS vs. .400 or better foes). Take Southern Miss. |
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09-30-17 | Iowa +3.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -109 | 84 h 30 m | Show |
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes + the points over Michigan State. Both the Hawkeyes and Spartans come into Saturday's game off losses. But Iowa played great in its defeat, with a narrow 2-point loss vs. Penn State. In contrast, Michigan St was blown out, 38-18, by Notre Dame. We'll take the points with Iowa, as it falls into 217-109 and 167-89 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams, in conference games, off a loss. Moreover, this is a series which has been dominated by the Hawkeyes. Since 1988, Iowa is 15-5-1 ATS vs. Michigan State, including 10-0-1 ATS when priced from +3 to +21 points! And Michigan State is a woeful 24-51 ATS off a loss, if its W/L percentage was .500 or better. Take Iowa. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-30-17 | Arizona State v. Stanford -14.5 | Top | 24-34 | Loss | -110 | 84 h 13 m | Show |
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Stanford Cardinal minus the points over Arizona State. Last week, we played on the Sun Devils as a 14.5-point underdog, and were rewarded with an outright win over Oregon. That leveled ASU's record at 2-2, and they'll now travel to Palo Alto to take on Stanford, which is also 2-2 following its 58-34 blowout of UCLA. We'll play against Arizona State, as it is a poor 0-8 ATS as road underdogs off an upset win vs. foes not off an upset win. Meanwhile, Stanford is a powerful 50-20 ATS in the regular season vs. conference foes, if it's off a win by 13+ points, and also covered the spread in that previous game. Take Stanford. |
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09-30-17 | Baylor +17 v. Kansas State | Top | 20-33 | Win | 100 | 84 h 44 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Baylor Bears + the points over Kansas State. Last week, the Bears played great, and almost upset the Oklahoma Sooners, as a 28-point underdog. They lost by just eight points, 49-41, but easily covered the spread by 20 points. Off that impressive game, I look for Baylor to once again get the cash as a double-digit underdog, as it is 14-3 ATS its last 17 conference games when getting 11+ points. And it's also an awesome 18-0 ATS since 2011 when coming off a double-digit cover in its previous game, provided it's not favored by 32+ points. Take the points with Baylor. |
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09-30-17 | New Mexico State v. Arkansas -16.5 | Top | 24-42 | Win | 100 | 81 h 23 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Arkansas Razorbacks minus the points over New Mexico State. The Aggies blew out Texas El Paso last week, 41-14, as a 17-point favorite. And that win extended New Mexico State's ATS run to 4-0 this season. The knee-jerk reaction might be to take the double-digits with New Mexico State, especially since Arkansas has yet to cover the pointspread this season. But consider that, since 1980, College Football underdogs of +14 or more points are an awful 37-62 ATS away from home off 4+ ATS wins in a row! And New Mexico State's a poor 5-12 ATS on the road off back to back covers. Take the Razorbacks. NCAA High Noon Hanging. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-30-17 | Northwestern +15 v. Wisconsin | Top | 24-33 | Win | 100 | 79 h 8 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Northwestern Wildcats + the points over Wisconsin. Northwestern bounced back off its upset loss at Duke in Week 2 to blow out Bowling Green, 49-7, in its third game. The Wildcats are now 2-1 SU, and will take on undefeated (3-0) Wisconsin, in Madison, on Saturday. The Wildcats also had last weekend off, and fall into a 93-34 ATS system of mine which plays on certain rested underdogs of +7 or more points. Additionally, Big 10 underdogs of 7+ points, with a winning record, have cashed 76.1% since 1980 when playing with rest vs. conference foes off back to back wins. Take Northwestern. Big 10 Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-29-17 | Nebraska -5.5 v. Illinois | Top | 28-6 | Win | 100 | 3 h 49 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Nebraska Cornhuskers minus the points over Illinois, as Illinois falls into several negative systems of mine, with records of 87-169, 37-107, and 75-176 ATS since 1980. Nebraska won its Big 10 opener last week vs. Rutgers, but failed to cover the 11-point spread, as it won by just 10, 27-17. Illinois, meanwhile, plays its conference opener tonight. So far this season, the Illini have not made many friends in Vegas, as they come into this game with a 1-2 ATS record, which is par for the course, as they have been a consistent money-burner over the years. Since 2002, Illinois is 65-96 ATS, including 33-64 when the pointspread was less than 11 points. Nebraska, on the other hand, has been solid as a road team vs. Big 10 Conference foes, including 8-2 ATS vs. foes off a loss. And the 'Huskers are also 42-24 ATS on the road when favored and not off a SU/ATS win. Take Nebraska. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-28-17 | Texas v. Iowa State +6.5 | Top | 17-7 | Loss | -115 | 43 h 35 m | Show |
At 8 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Iowa State Cyclones + the points over Texas. Iowa State comes into this game on a 3-game ATS win streak following its blowout victory at Akron (41-14) on Sept. 16. Texas also played 12 days ago, and suffered a tough 3-point loss at Southern Cal, 27-24. That defeat has placed Texas into 3 negative systems of mine, with records of 59-124, 79-142 and 217-336. Meanwhile, the fact that Iowa State is playing with a week of rest at home, and also with revenge, has triggered several very good systems on the Cyclones with records of 39-10, 50-22, 112-73, 107-56 and 43-23. Finally, the Cyclones have scored more than 40 points in each of their first three games this season. And NCAA home underdogs of 5+ points have cashed a super 91% since 1980 vs. conference foes if our home dog scored 40+ points in its three previous games. Take Iowa State. NCAA High Roller. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-24-17 | Seahawks +3 v. Titans | Top | 27-33 | Loss | -125 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Seahawks + the points over Tennessee. The Seahawks have gotten off to a slow start this season. They lost, 17-9, at Green Bay in Week 1. And then only scored 12 points vs. a poor San Francisco team last week, but eked out a 12-9 victory. But we've seen this before with Pete Carroll's squad. Indeed, just last season, Seattle scored just 15 points over its first two games. And the previous year, it actually LOST its first two games outright, but still managed to go 10-6 that season. So, it's not yet time to panic. And, for technical support, consider that Seattle is an awesome 54-25-2 ATS after failing to score 20+ points in its two previous games, including a perfect 11-0 ATS under coach Carroll! Additionally, Tennessee falls into negative 23-59 and 48-95 ATS systems of mine. Take Seattle. Road Warrior Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-24-17 | Texans +14 v. Patriots | Top | 33-36 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over New England. These two teams met in the Playoffs last season, and the Patriots came away with a 34-16 victory. And they also whitewashed Houston, 27-0, in the regular season last year. But we'll grab the points with the Texans, as they fall into an 18-0 ATS Playoff revenge system of mine. Moreover, New England's defense has greatly fallen off from last year's numbers. In 2016, it gave up just 15.6 ppg in the regular season. But through its first two games this season, New England is surrendering 31 ppg. That certainly augurs poorly for them. And with respect to this game, it's worth noting that favorites of -9 or more points are a soft 49-80 ATS since 1980 when they give up more than 24 ppg. Take Houston. Payback Payday. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-24-17 | Falcons v. Lions +3 | Top | 30-26 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over Atlanta. The Falcons suffered a brutal loss in last year's Super Bowl, as they collapsed after being up by 25 points over New England. And, generally speaking, the teams that lost the Super Bowl the previous season have a somewhat difficult time the next year. So far, Atlanta hasn't shown any ill effects, as it's 2-0 straight-up and 1-1 ATS. But I expect it to stumble on Sunday, vs. the undefeated Lions. Indeed, teams that lost the Super Bowl the previous year are a poor 4-27-2 ATS as non-division road favorites priced from PK to -4, including 1-12 ATS if their win percentage was .700 (or better). Even better: home underdogs of +3 or more points, with a winning record, off a SU/ATS road win are 64% ATS since 1980 vs. foes off a SU/ATS win. Take Detroit. NFL Roadkill. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-24-17 | East Carolina +4.5 v. Connecticut | Top | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 58 h 39 m | Show |
At 12 Noon on Sunday, our selection is on the East Carolina Pirates + the points over Connecticut. The hurricane season wrecked havoc on the College Football schedule, so we'll have a rare Sunday college football game this weekend. Interestingly, both teams have yet to cover the pointspread this season. East Carolina is 0-3 SU/ATS, while Connecticut is 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS. We'll grab the points with East Carolina, as UConn falls into a negative 44-124 ATS system of mine, which fades certain home favorites vs. teams with a losing ATS record. Additionally, East Carolina has excelled as road underdogs of less than 8 points, as it's 28-15 ATS in this role, including 11-0 ATS if it lost its previous game by 9+ points. Finally, Connecticut is a dreadful 0-7-1 ATS at home when PK/Favored since September 2012. Take the Pirates. High Noon Hanging. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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09-23-17 | Oregon v. Arizona State +14.5 | Top | 35-37 | Win | 100 | 45 h 59 m | Show |
At 10 pm, our selection is on the Arizona State Sun Devils + the points over Oregon. Oregon went 3-0 in its non-conference schedule, and now opens Pac-12 Conference play vs. Arizona State. It's true the Sun Devils are 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS this season. But Arizona State has played a much more difficult schedule than Oregon, as the Sun Devils' two losses were to San Diego State and Texas Tech, both of which are unbeaten on the season. We'll grab the double-digits with Arizona State, as ASU falls into an 89-38 ATS system of mine which plays on certain home dogs off 3 ATS losses. Also, the Sun Devils are a super 25-8-1 ATS at home vs. foes that covered by 10+ points in their previous game, including a perfect 8-0-1 ATS if ASA wasn't favored by 3+ points. Take the Sun Devils. NCAA High Roller. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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