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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-02-21 | Mavs +7.5 v. Clippers | 105-100 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Ah, you probably thought that when the Clippers showed up in Dallas trailing |
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06-02-21 | Grizzlies v. Jazz -9.5 | 110-126 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Memphis deserves respect despite the fact they are down 3 to 1 in this series. As the youngest team in the league, they compete like they have been doing it for years. Even though Ja Morant and Dillion Brooks had off shooting nights, Memphis went on a 12 to 2 run to start the fourth quarter to be down only 2 points with 5 and a half minutes to play in the last game. Outside shooting killed the Grizzlies Monday. The Memphis starters were just 4 for 21 from deep while the Utah starters were 11 for 21 from beyond the arc. Utah was more aggressive going to the rim on Monday hitting on 25 of 28 free throws. Jordan Clarkson showed why he is the Sixth Man of the Year as he was 8 for 18 from the floor. Utah wants to erase the memory of blowing a 3-1 lead in the bubble last year. Utah’s Mike Conley has a long memory, Conley: “We obviously remember that feeling that we had last season, and it’s not something we want to experience again.” |
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06-02-21 | Marlins v. Blue Jays -155 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units You don’t want to overreact after just one MLB start, but before the rest of the sporting world discovers Blue Jays rookie Alek Manoah, maybe we should be on him at relatively reasonable numbers. Debuting him in Yankee Stadium against the Yankees (well, who else would they be facing in that ballpark? Duh!) was certainly a sign of confidence in the kid and he did not disappoint |
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06-02-21 | Twins -135 v. Orioles | 3-6 | Loss | -135 | 5 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Orioles snapped a 14-game losing streak last night, in which the team also ended a 16-game losing streak against the Twins. But with Matt Harvey starting for them tonight, they should revert to typical form and avoid a winning streak, something they haven’t had since they won three in a row April 29-May 1. Harvey’s Exit Tour of the Major Leagues is unique in the sense that as a starter, he gives cameo performances, pitching 1/3 of a game, usually less than half, sometimes as little as 1 2/3 innings. He has allowed 5, 6, 6, 7, 4 runs in his last five starts, all in less than 5 innings of work, on 5, 9, 7, 8 and 4 hits. Baltimore has lost all five games. Yet he keeps coming back for more abuse, imagining that there might be an opposing lineup within MLB that he can get through. He can dream, can’t he? |
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06-02-21 | Rays +116 v. Yankees | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Yankees pulled out an 11th inning victory last night, but their offense woes continued, as they managed a mere six hits in 11 innings. The surging Rays have won 16 of their last 18 (+$1100 overall in 2021) and they have a solid left-hander in Shane McClanahan, who has been effective in his six starts (+$415), with a 0.90 ERA in his last two). New York averages just 3.5 runs per game vs. lefties (-$595), so take the the visiting underdog in the Bronx this evening. |
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06-01-21 | A's -147 v. Mariners | 12-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We’ve waited another five days for Chris Bassitt to come back to us, and will ya’ look at that, here he is. It would be just our bad luck (for example, Jack Flaherty got injured and left with a 3-2 lead last night) for the guy to bounce down from his complete-game, 2-hit shutout of the Angels for us last Thursday. But Bassitt has won four in a row for us and is facing batters who, collectively, have hit .188 against him with a measly .211 Slugging Percentage. The Mariners have a -42 Run Differential and average only 6.42 hits per game, fewest in MLB. Only the Mets have more guys unavailable due to injury than the Mariners, and their starter, Marco Gonzales, isn’t expected to go more than 3 or 4 innings making his first start off the injured list after not pitching in a game for five weeks. |
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06-01-21 | Blazers v. Nuggets -2 | Top | 140-147 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
NBA Play of the Day Despite a poor shooting night from Damian Lillard, Portland crushed Denver on Saturday. One of the keys to playing well against Portland is to contain their starting guards but Denver allowed the Blazers Norman Powell to go off for a career-high 29 points. That kind of defense has to be addressed. Austin Rivers came back to earth on Saturday and he figured to do just that considering he was sitting on his couch a few weeks ago going through the want ads. Three of the Denver starters Friday were just 8 for 25 from the floor and Michael Porter Jr. took only 3 shots. In the last 2 games Nikola Jokic totaled 6 assists. During the season, Jokic was 6th in the league in that category. Bam Adebayo was the only other center in the top 30. Last season, Denver had 2 successful Game 5s before losing to the Lakers in the Conference Finals. First off, they were down 3 to 1 to Utah and came back to the Mile High and won Game 5 by 10 points. In the next series, they were down 3 to 1 to the Clippers and then won the Game 5 in L.A. and eventually made it three in a row to win the series against the Clips. Coach Malone: “Maybe this could be a wake-up call for our starting group, just to play harder. Good things happen when you play hard, and we didn’t play anywhere close to hard enough tonight.” |
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06-01-21 | Red Sox +125 v. Astros | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Fickle fellows, aren’t we? All over the Astros against the Red Sox last night for a win, but switching to Boston tonight despite Luis Garcia’s recent mighty fine outings for Houston, which included 6 innings of 2-hit, 1-run ball against the formidable Dodgers in his last start. But he threw 100 pitches, his most of the season, which would make it the most Garcia has ever thrown in a Major League game because he didn’t exceed 86 pitches in any outing as a rookie last year. The Astros faced an obviously down trending lefty last night when they pounded Eduardo Rodriguez. Relatively steady righthander Garrett Richards hasn’t allowed a home run in his last three starts, only 3 this season, and is better leverage. |
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06-01-21 | Lightning v. Hurricanes -114 | 2-1 | Loss | -114 | 1 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The champs are playing well and will be tough to beat. Still, the Canes have enjoyed an outstanding season and they're not about to go down without a fight. Carolina is a healthy 30-17 (+9.6) the past couple of seasons, after scoring one goal or less in its previous game. While the Lightning were somewhat mediocre on the road during the season, the Canes played well at home. The Bolts allow 3.0 goals per game on the road while the Canes allow 2.0 goals per game at home. The pick'em price offers fair value. |
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06-01-21 | Celtics +12.5 v. Nets | 109-123 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Boston head coach Brad Stevens is 8-2 ATS as a double digit dog in his career with Boston when coming off a double digit loss, including 7-0 ATS the last seven games. He is also 4-1 ATS as a double digit dog, winning two of the games straight up. With the double digit playoff road dogs 30-15 ATS since 1990 when coming off a double digit loss, it's time to take the Celts tonight. |
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06-01-21 | Nationals +124 v. Braves | 11-6 | Win | 124 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Nationals look to snap a five game losing streak with Stephen Strasburg on the mound. He's looked better lately (2.61 ERA in his last two starts) and he's taking on an Atlanta team that has posted heavy losses at home in 2021 (-$785). Max Fried is 0-3 in home night games (-$440, 5.06 ERA) and Washington does score more vs. lefthanders (4.5 per game). Underdog price on the visitor looks too good to pass up. |
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06-01-21 | Rays -111 v. Yankees | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -111 | 3 h 5 m | Show |
Rating: 10 units After opening the series with soft-tossing left-hander Rich Hill, hard-thrower Tyler Glasnow (4-2, 2.57 ERA) starts for Tampa Bay. On Wednesday, he allowed three hits in eight innings to go along with 11 strikeouts against the Kansas City Royals. Glasnow is 2-2 with a 3.38 ERA in six career starts against the Yankees, including 2-0 with a 1.62 ERA in New York. |
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06-01-21 | White Sox v. Indians UNDER 7.5 | 5-6 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The White Sox lead the American League Central with a 33-21 record, by 3.5 games over the Indians. However, their hitters have been less effective against right-handed starters, they are 1-7 in games where they’ve been the underdog (which means when facing as good or better pitchers than their own good starting cast), and Cleveland ace righty Shane Bieber is starting against them as the second-place Indians attempt to narrow the standings gap. Chicago’s Dylan Cease seems to be riding an up-curve, currently with the best ERA/WHIP he’s had during his two-plus MLB seasons: 2.98, 1.27. He’ll be pitching to a team averaging only ?? runs per game and is without its regular clean-up hitter Franmil Reyes. Chicago closer Liam Hendriks didn’t pitch during yesterday’s doubleheader split and is fresh, fit, ready to go if/when needed. A 6:10 pm, ET start in Cleveland invites shadows to become part of the attendance, which is not what hitters want to see. |
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05-31-21 | Mets -164 v. Diamondbacks | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Arizona Diamondbacks just snapped their 13-game losing streak, but they now face the daunting task of putting together another win against the major league's top pitcher, Jacob deGrom of the New York Mets. The two-time Cy Young Award winner leads the majors with a 0.80 ERA, allowing only four earned runs in 45 innings spanning seven starts. He also has 74 strikeouts to go with only seven walks. He struck out nine in a successful return from the injured list last Tuesday in a 3-1 victory over the visiting Colorado Rockies. He has never lost to Arizona, compiling a 4-0 record and 1.65 ERA in five career starts against the Diamondbacks. Arizona will counter with right-hander Merrill Kelly (2-5, 4.84 ERA). Kelly has allowed only 16 earned runs in his past seven starts (41 2/3 innings) and compiled 42 strikeouts with 12 walks in that span. He is 1-2 with a 2.79 ERA in three career starts against the Mets. He went 5 2/3 innings at New York on May 8 in a 4-2 loss. He allowed only three hits and struck out six but he also walked five batters. |
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05-31-21 | Jazz v. Grizzlies +6 | 120-113 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Eh, they’re not dead yet, these Grizzlies. One bad quarter – the first – was pretty much to blame for their Game 3 loss that tipped the series 2-1 Utah’s way. Forget the 14-2 end run made by the Jazz that propelled them to the cover as well as the straight-up win. Way too many early defensive breakdowns put Memphis in a hole that no underdog needs to be in. Utah has made 19 three pointers in Games 2 and 3, with 48.7% and 44.2% accuracy. While there’s no steadfast rule that the team that took the most three-pointers per game in the league (43) should shoot a lesser percentage than their average of 38.8% in the next game after bettering it by that much twice in a row, a regression is on the table as a distinct possibility, especially if the Grizzlies have their act |
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05-31-21 | Cardinals +170 v. Dodgers | 4-9 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cardinals lost their first game out of 10 Jack Flaherty starts six days ago at the White Sox. It was a strange first two innings. The White Sox scored their first run on a groundout to Flaherty, their second run on two errors on one play. In the second inning, they scored on a single, a bases loaded walk, a wild pitch. It’s not like they hammered Flaherty around to jump out to their first 5 runs in an 8-3 game. We’ll take a mulligan with Flaherty as an even larger underdog this time, matched against L.A. ace Trevor Bauer. Dodgers who have faced Flaherty are 4-for-38 against him, all singles, 18-3 K-BB. Bauer has excellent numbers: 2.07 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 91-22 K-BB in 69 2/3 innings pitched. But the Dodgers are only 5-6 in his starts. Cardinals who have faced him are 8-for-22 (.363). |
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05-31-21 | 76ers -8 v. Wizards | 114-122 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Home teams in game four who are down 0-3 in the series of the opening round in the NBA Playoffs are 2-11 SU and 3-9-1 ATS since 1990. When these same teamss are coming off a loss of 13 or more points they dip to 0-6 SU and 0-5-1 ATS. That is not promising news for the Washington Wizards this evening. |
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05-31-21 | A's -123 v. Mariners | 5-6 | Loss | -123 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Today's pitching matchup will feature a pair of rookies, James Kaprielian (2-0, 1.53 ERA) of Oakland and Logan Gilbert (0-2, 7.59 ERA) of Seattle. The 27-year-old Kaprielian made just two relief appearances in 2020 (3.2 IP) but in three starts here in 2021 (his first major-league start came May 12 at Boston), he's 2-0 (team is 3-0) with a 1.53 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 23-8 KW ratio and a .156 BAA. Gilbert's a 24-year-old rookie who has also made three starts in 2021. He struggled badly in his first two starts (6.2 IP / 7 ERs allowed) but had his best outing last week at Oakland, giving up two runs on four hits over four innings (settled for a no-decision in Seattle's 4-3 win). However, Logan's numbers hardly match Kaprielian's numbers (see above), as he owns a 7.59 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and a .283 BAA. |
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05-31-21 | Red Sox v. Astros +104 | 2-11 | Win | 104 | 5 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units “I’m very excited. I’m very healthy right now. Very anxious to do my best and help us win tomorrow.” So said Astros’ righty Jose Urquidy yesterday, one day before returning from the injured list, where he’s been since exiting in the fourth inning on May 12. Hey, thanks for the heads-up, Jose! Urquidy is 3-0 with a 1.52 ERA in his last four starts, with just 2 BBs and 4 ER allowed on 15 hits in 23 2/3 innings. Boston’s Eduardo Rodriguez has allowed more hits than innings pitched in each of his last five starts, in which the Red Sox — a 32-20 team — are 1-4. Ah, the weak link, eh? Houston’s .283 team batting average against left-handed pitchers is MLB’s highest such number. Given that it has been produced with the most at-bats against lefties (763, vs. 658 for the next most frequent lefty-facers), it’s a more valid stat than most. Also, you don’t even need a calculator to figure that their 14-for-42 lifetime against Rodriguez equals .333. |
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05-31-21 | Angels v. Giants -148 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Giants plan to send veteran right-hander Johnny Cueto to the mound against the Angels. Cueto (3-1, 3.86 ERA) has faced the Angels only four times in his 14-year major league career, but is 3-0 against them with a 1.35 ERA. Cueto faced the Angels last Aug. 19 in Anaheim and earned the win after allowing two runs and four hits in 5 2/3 innings of a 7-2 victory. The Angels plan to send right-hander Dylan Bundy to the mound for the series opener. Bundy (0-5, 6.50) has struggled most of the season. He pitched a season-low 2 1/3 innings in his last outing against Oakland, allowing four runs and five hits. The Angels bailed him out from another loss by scoring five runs over the sixth through eighth innings in the 6-5 win. Bundy faced the Giants in August as well and surrendered a leadoff homer to Mike Yastrzemski and a two-run shot to Pablo Sandoval in the second before leaving after four innings in the 8-2 loss. |
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05-30-21 | Clippers -3 v. Mavs | 106-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units After five tries and five failures, the Clippers finally exceeded their scoring average in a game against Dallas. In their 118-103 Game 3 win here, as close to a must-win as there ever was, they overcame a 27-11 early deficit no less, to trail only 34-31 after one quarter. Dallas has never really seemed like a great defensive team, so the Clippers’ offensive struggles in the match-up may have been just one of those things, a statistical oddity. Could be that they’ve found the range. Meanwhile, here’s a stat that could provide some insight to the future: In Game 3, the Maver-icks shot a very good 20-for-39 on three-pointers (51.3%, compared to their regu-lar season average of 38.1%), yet lost it by 10 points |
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05-30-21 | Golden Knights v. Avalanche -178 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Consider that Vegas is 11-25 in their last 36 games as a road underdog and 2-5 in their last 7 playoff games as an underdog. While Colorado is 46-13 in their last 59 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game, 20-8 in their last 28 playoff games as a favorite, and 45-20 in their last 65 games following a win. |
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05-30-21 | Giants +163 v. Dodgers | 5-4 | Win | 163 | 6 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Compared to Kershaw, Gausman has limited experience against his opponent Sunday. He is 0-2 with a 4.44 ERA lifetime against the Dodgers, with four of his five meetings against them over the past two seasons as a member of the Giants. Gausman has not given up more than one earned run in any of his past seven starts and has delivered consecutive scoreless outings against the Cincinnati Reds and Arizona Diamondbacks. San Francisco is 7-3 in Gausman's 10 starts this season. The Giants also got some help off the injured list with first baseman Wilmer Flores activated Saturday following a strained right hamstring. Flores had three hits and scored two runs. His return was welcome news after both Brandon Belt and Darin Ruf went on the IL in advance of the current series. |
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05-30-21 | Royals +121 v. Twins | 6-3 | Win | 121 | 4 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The long, black-bearded mediocrity called Matt Shoemaker starts for the Twins. He has beaten Detroit and Baltimore. Big whoop. He beat us last time out against the Orioles but we don’t fear him today against the Royals, who got 8 hits and 9 runs against Shoemaker in 3 1/3 innings on May 1. The Royals very recently got starting shortstop Adalberto Mondesi back from the injured |
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05-30-21 | Phillies +121 v. Rays | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rays recently won 11 straight games before the streak was snapped in that 2-1 loss to Keller and KC five days ago. After that game, their manager pledged to start and extend another winning streak and by golly, they did. Tampa has won three straight. But they will start a four-game series tomorrow in Yankee Stadium. They lead the Red Sox by a half-game, the Yankees by 3.5 games, in the American League East. With Colin McHugh opening, it’s obvious that they’re setting up the rotation to be at its strongest for the intra-division series against the hated division rival, as opposed to today’s Interleague affair. McHugh last appeared in the ninth inning of Thursday’s 7-2 win vs. the Royals. Today, it’s the first inning. Two appearances ago, it was the 7th and 8th innings in a 14-8 win. There is no real routine with him, and with the Yankees coming up, the relief choices may not be the “A” team. Zach Eflin is no superstar but you have to feel that a guy whose innings pitched in 10 starts are: 7, 6, 7, 6, 6 2/3, 6, 6 2/3, 6, 6 and 6 deserves some love from the baseball gods with a decent 3.84 ERA but a mere 2-4 W/L record to show for it. |
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05-30-21 | Brewers v. Nationals UNDER 6.5 | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 3 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units A couple o’ #1 starters face sub-par offenses who average a mere 3.79 and 3.85 runs per game. Those low averages — which rank #23 and #26 in the 30-team entertainment enclave — include games when they aren’t facing #1 starters, or, for that matter, #2 starters. In his five starts in the month of May, 2021, Max Scherzer hasn’t allowed more than 2 runs. His median length is 7 1/3 innings for those five starts, with 47-7 K-BB in 33 1/3 innings. Washington is only 3-2 despite his excellence, having lost 2-1 and 4-3 (the latter in 11 innings, it was 2-1 when Scherzer left in the eighth, 2-2 after nine innings). See? They don’t hit much. Brandon Woodruff’s month of May is as good: also no more than 2 runs allowed in any of five starts, 7 2/3 innings median length, 39-6 K-BB. Milwaukee is only 3-2 despite his excellence because they lost 2-0 shutouts twice. See? They don’t hit much. |
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05-30-21 | Brewers +104 v. Nationals | 3-0 | Win | 104 | 3 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Woodruff (3-2, 1.41 ERA) owns a 1.05 ERA over his last nine starts for the Brewers, who have won six of their last eight. Milwaukee recorded a doubleheader sweep of the Nationals on Saturday, winning the first game 4-1 before scoring four runs in the sixth inning to win the nightcap 6-2. Washington has lost four of its last five games, and a lack of timely hitting has been the primary culprit. The frustration continued to simmer early in the first game Saturday, when star outfielder Juan Soto grounded into a double play with one out and two runners on in the third inning and the Nationals already trailing 4-0. |
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05-30-21 | Knicks +5 v. Hawks | 96-113 | Loss | -108 | 3 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Atlanta moved the ball and were a plus 14 in points in the paint in the win over NY on Friday and they shot the ball great to boot. Atlanta had 7 guys in double figures and Lou Williams came off the bench and gave them 9 points in 11 minutes. The Hawks did get a break when the Knicks were only 39% from the field. The Knicks only lost one quarter on Friday but it cost them the game. The contest was tight until about 5 minutes to go in the second quarter. At that point, Atlanta made a 17 to 5 run and that was the difference in the game. New York has to play better defense and they also have to continue to be aggressive going to the rack. NY got to the free-throw line 30 times Friday, 22 more times than the Hawks. Look for both R.J. Barrett and Julius Randle to be dialed in for this game. They were a combined 4 for 24 from the floor Friday |
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05-29-21 | Rangers v. Mariners -109 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mariners took the first two games from the Rangers at T-Mobile and they look like a solid value tonight. Justin Dunn comes in with a 3.41 ERA in eight outings, and he'll be facing a Texas team that is only 10-24 when facing right-handers (-$950). Seattle has had a profitable season vs. righties so far (+$520) so we'll lay the short price on the home team as they attempt to make it three in a row. |
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05-29-21 | Jazz -5 v. Grizzlies | 121-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Similar to the Bubble when several players last season had break-out performances, Ja Morant has made a name for himself with just 2 playoff games. Ironically, he broke Mike Conley’s Memphis team scoring record with 47 points in the last game. He became the first player to score as many as 71 points in his first two career playoff games since the NBA was created. He was 15 for 20 from the free-throw line as Utah only got to the charity stripe 31 times. Can Morant keep it up? He kicked off the season scoring 44 and had 28 in the next game. He had 29 in a game in February and had 12 next time out. He had 36 points in the last game of March and had 11 points next time on the court. The Memphis bench let the team down and if they don’t come to play, Utah will regain the home-court advantage. The Grizzlies reserves were outscored 43 to 14 Wednesday. Utah shot the ball poorly in the opening loss to Memphis in this series but they only had one poor quarter. The Jazz were only 26% from distance in the opening loss but came back and hit at 49% on Wednesday. Mike Conley and Ruby Gobert had double/doubles Wednesday and the return of Donovan Mitchell took pressure off of Conley to do everything. Only three teams in the league had a better away record than the Jazz this season. |
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05-29-21 | Islanders v. Bruins -184 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Islanders posted a 5-2-1 record against the Bruins this season, but Boston claimed the final three meetings. Maybe it's just a coincidence, but the Bruins won all three meetings after acquiring forward Taylor Hall, which gave them a potent second line that also includes David Krejci and Craig Smith. That takes some of the offensive pressure off the top trio of Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak. The Bruins also will receive a boost to their defense corps led by Charlie McAvoy, who is from Long Island. Injured defenseman Jeremy Lauzon (lower body), who was hurt in the playoff opener, appears ready. Consider that Boston is 10-1 in their last 11 home games. |
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05-29-21 | Rockies -115 v. Pirates | 0-4 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We intended to go against Mitch Keller yesterday so after the rainout why not do it again today despite the pitching change? Yes, it’s the ultimate contrarian wise-guy move to be backing a 3-20 road team in both games of a double-header on the road. But the other side is the Pirates, so... Keller’s below par record was detailed yesterday, including zero quality starts out of nine. Austin Gomber just gave the Rockies 8 innings of 4-hit, 2-run ball at the Mets in a 3-2 win. If there’s a team as weak, or weaker than the Mets offensively in the National League, it’s Pittsburgh. |
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05-29-21 | Orioles v. White Sox -202 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 3 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Orioles have lost 10 straight games and it’s Matt Harvey’s turn to start, against the first-place team in the American League Central Division. The most recent stop on Harvey’s Exit Tour of MLB was in Washington on Sunday, a light-hitting lineup that nevertheless got 9 hits and 6 runs against him in 4 2/3 innings. Before that, he lasted only 1 2/3 innings vs. Tampa, giving up 7 hits and 6 runs. The Mets — who can’t score more than 4 runs against any combination of pitchers on any opponent — nevertheless jumped on Harvey for 8 hits and 7 runs in 4 1/3 innings before that. It’s out of character for us to use a $2.00 favorite and apologize in advance if it doesn’t work out. But steady veteran lefty Dallas Keuchel would really have to throw in a terrible outing to blow this, with three regulars out injured in an already light-hitting Orioles lineup. |
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05-29-21 | Orioles v. White Sox OVER 6.5 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 3 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We add the Over with the game shortened to 7 innings because with Matt Harvey starting for Baltimore, the White Sox have an opportunity to get 7 runs on their own before Harvey leaves. |
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05-29-21 | Bucks v. Heat +5 | 120-103 | Loss | -108 | 2 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Milwaukee Bucks are 3-15 ATS against non-divisional opponent this season when coming off three or more wins in a row. Miami Heat head coach Eric Spoelstra is 7-1 ATS in his career with the Heat as a conference home dog coming off consecutive losses versus foes coming off consecutive wins. He is also 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS at home in elimination games during the playoffs. |
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05-29-21 | Rockies +122 v. Pirates | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 24 m | Show |
MLB Play of the Day The Rockies are 3-20 away from Coors Field. Godawful, eh? But they’ll win more than three games on the road. Hopefully that milestone is reached tonight in Pittsburgh, the National League’s last-place team with MLB’s worst Run Differential (-84). The Pirates average only 3.64 runs per game in their home park, where they are 8-14. If you can’t win on the road, it helps to be facing a bad host, right? Jon Gray has been the Rockies’ best starter with a 1.18 WHIP. The Pirates he’s faced are just 6-for-32 against him, 13-1 K-BB, Slugging Percentage of .157. Early listings have the Pirates switching Mitch Keller to Game 2 against Austin Gomber, with J.T. Brubaker to oppose Gray. Fine with us. Brubaker has allowed 15 hits and 12 runs in his last two starts, which totaled 11 innings. Among the 15 hits were 4 home runs. Yesterday’s rainout gave the Colorado bullpen a break after a double-header against the Mets the previous day. |
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05-28-21 | Rangers +113 v. Mariners | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Justus Sheffield gave up 10 hits and 7 runs to the Rangers in Texas on May 9. The southpaw has a 5.11 ERA and 1.57 WHIP, both higher than last season’s 3.58 and 1.30. The Rangers have been hitting lefties pretty well this season, managing to win 12 of 18 games when the opponent starts one (they’re 10-24 when the opponent starts a righty, like last night, when Seattle’s Chris Flexen shut ‘em out.) Jordan Lyles doesn’t get anyone excited to get out of the bed and on the phone with The Man, that’s for sure. But the Rangers have won four of his last five starts, three of them against the Red Sox, Yankees and Astros. |
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05-28-21 | Clippers -2.5 v. Mavs | 118-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Clippers finally exceeded their scoring average in a game against the Mavericks… but gave up 127 points and fell to 0-2 in the series. They will now have to pull a reverse of the usual playoff-series comeback try, needing to win four out of as many as five games when three of them will be on the road, starting with Games 3 and 4. Say, what’s Paul George shooting on three-pointers so far in the two losses? That would be 3-for-15. Keep jackin’ ‘em up, superstar (in his own mind). As the Clippers attempt to chip away at it, one thing to keep in mind: Dallas has shot 50.0% and 58.3% in the two games, including 47.2% and 52.9% from three-point range – over the top stuff, with Old Man Regression a potential sixth man for the Clippers tonight. |
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05-28-21 | Padres v. Astros OVER 8 | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units These are two pretty decent pitchers but the Padres’ Dinelson Lamet has been used sparingly and spottily and hasn’t been going deep into starts, while Framber Valdez is making his first start of the season for the Astros. it’s an Interleague game and managers tend to shake up their rotations and bullpen usage in these instances while hoping their hitters overcome their managerial ways. Both sides hit well enough (#1 5.2 runs per game for the Astros, #10 4.65 runs per game for the Padres to expect their averages, or better, once the starters are out and the relief crews over and done with. The Houston pen isn’t as good as the Milwaukee pen that San Diego just closed a series against. |
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05-28-21 | Knicks +5 v. Hawks | 94-105 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units New York came out flat on Wednesday scoring just 44 points in the first half but they put the clamps on the Hawks in the final 24 minutes holding Atlanta to 35 points in the come-from-behind New York victory. Several guys on both teams had off games. John Collins picked up three quick fouls for the Hawks and never did score while Atlanta’s Danilo Gallinari was only 2 for 10 off the bench for 6 points in 30 minutes. Four of the Knicks starters were a combined 11 for 35 but Derrick Rose looked like the kid that won the MVP in the league when he was only 22 years old. The Knicks are trying to regain the home-court advantage here and they won’t be shy about playing in Georgia. They beat the Hawks in January in Atlanta and their current center Nerlens Noel and Rose didn’t play. |
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05-28-21 | Reds v. Cubs UNDER 6.5 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units A 21 mph wind blows in from center field at Wrigley Field this afternoon. That should keep most if not all the well-struck fly balls in the ballpark. We’ll take a flyer on Cincinnati rookie righthander Vladimir Gutierrez in his MLB debut. He can throw 96 mph, maybe get an extra push on it with the wind at his back. Adbert Alzolay has stuck in the Cubs’ rotation with his 0.86 WHIP. He’s been quite unlucky with a 4.30 ERA, a number you rarely see matched with such a low WHIP. His K-BB is an impressive 45-7 after 44 IP, and he won’t be facing injured Joey Votto or Mike Moustakas in the Reds’ lineup. |
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05-27-21 | Hurricanes -137 v. Predators | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The value is there as the price is moderate on Carolina since they are on the road. The Canes did win the first two games of this series by a 3-goal margin with each victory. The only two victories that Nashville has in this series each came in the 2nd overtime. Carolina is clearly the better overall team but yet we have some line value to work with here because of the way the last 3 games have played out (all needing extra time) and because the Hurricanes are on the road. The Canes have outshot the Predators in all but one game in this series and have outshot Nashville by an average margin of 15 shots in the last two games. The proven better team, the Carolina Hurricanes are worth a look. |
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05-27-21 | Angels v. A's -144 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It’s our man Chris Bassitt. After three straight road wins for us at Boston, Minnesota and the Angels, he turns around to face the L.A. lineup again, this time in his home park. He and his teammates beat the Angels 6-2 five days ago with Bassitt hounding them through 7 2/3 innings of 5-hit, 2-run ball, 8-1 K-BB. In his last five starts, four of them Oakland wins, Bassitt has a 38-4 K-BB. Yow. No Mike Trout for the Angels, and Anthony Rendon, since he returned from an injury two weeks ago, is 6-for-30 with 0 HR, 1 RBI. Angels’ multi-purpose Ohtani is 3-for-16 lifetime vs. Bassitt, (.188), with 7 strikeouts. He has to face him, but Bassitt doesn’t have to face Ohtani. Oh, that’s not fair. And who cares about fair? |
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05-27-21 | Orioles v. White Sox OVER 8.5 | 1-5 | Loss | -113 | 5 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units The White Sox were averaging 8.6 runs per game against left-handed starters before going into Yankee Stadium and getting stifled by Jordan Montgomery. Baltimore’s Bruce Zimmermann is a lefty with a 5.59 ERA and 1.55 WHIP, who they should enjoy teeing off against at home. They’ve supported Dylan Cease with 11-0, 9-0 and 9-3 wins and have the ability to go Over this Total on their own. |
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05-27-21 | Bucks v. Heat +1.5 | 113-84 | Loss | -103 | 5 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units When Milwaukee murdered Miami, 132-98 to go up two games to none in their playoff series Monday night they set the tone for the rematch in Miami tonight. The Bucks finished with 22 three pointers, a new franchise playoff high and handed the Heat their 2nd worst loss in franchise history (-34). Consider that Miami is 17-6 SU and 18-4-1 ATS in the playoff under head coach Eric Spoelstra when coming off a playoff loss of more than 10 points. |
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05-27-21 | Royals +157 v. Rays | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Royals dropped a close 2-1 decision last night, but they've kept the Tampa offense in check the past two nights, and they're getting a huge price at Tropicana Field. They've made money vs. left-handers (+$360 in road games), and Shane McClanahan comes in with 4.36 ERA his last two appearances. Brady Singer has pitched well in recent appearances, so look for KC to prevail in today's rubber game. |
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05-27-21 | Rockies v. Mets UNDER 5.5 | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Why leave Citi Field if nobody is forcing us to get out? The Rockies entered last night’s game averaging 2.8 runs per game on the road, got 1 run and 3 hits against 5-inning Jacob deGrom and three Mets’ relievers. The men in Mets uniforms — many of them not supposed to be playing as much as they have been in recent days — continued their string of staying under 4 runs, getting 3. The Mets haven’t scored more than 4 in a nine-inning game since May 12. They got 9 hits, but all season long they’ve been among the worst teams in Hits per Run ratio, currently #28 at 2.13 hits for every run scored. German Marquez and Marcus Stroman are capable veteran pitchers, especially when the opposing lineups don’t have much pop in them. All the best relievers got an unscheduled day of rest yesterday and will be available. As always with these doubleheaders, double-check the times and pitching matchups because 19-year-olds with hardly any experience are posting information in Las Vegas and online, posing as expert insiders. |
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05-27-21 | Padres -112 v. Brewers | 5-6 | Loss | -112 | 2 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Team with as good or better a bullpen than Milwaukee’s, with MLB’s best Run Differential of +80, vs. the Brewers’ -24, is only a short favorite. The Brewers’ team batting average of .209 and on-base percentage of .295 are lowest in the National League. They’ve never faced Ryan Weathers — 1.48 ERA, 0.92 WHIP — and by the time they think they have him figured out, he’ll be gone by the 4th innings, replaced by somebody just as capable. Adrian Houser’s 4.53 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, a mere 1.9 K-BB ratio… not doin’ it for us. |
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05-26-21 | Giants -111 v. Diamondbacks | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Diamondbacks had nine hits but couldn't push across a run in their latest defeat. Arizona has scored two or fewer runs in 10 of the setbacks during the 13-game stretch. The Diamondbacks stand 13 games behind the San Diego Padres in the National League West. Last-place Arizona is 12 1/2 games behind the second-place Los Angeles Dodgers and 11 1/2 games behind the Giants. Giants right-hander Johnny Cueto (3-1, 3.34 ERA) will look to continue his career-long success against Arizona. The 35-year-old Cueto is 11-3 with 3.04 ERA in 18 career starts versus the Diamondbacks. He is 8-1 with a 3.30 ERA in 12 outings at Chase Field. Eduardo Escobar is 3-for-9 with a homer against Cueto, while David Peralta (1-for-15, nine strikeouts) and Nick Ahmed (1-for-12) have struggled. Cueto gave up one run and five hits in five innings while beating the Cincinnati Reds -- his former club -- last Thursday. Meanwhile the Diamondbacks right-hander Merrill Kelly (2-5, 5.05) has lost his past three starts and is winless over his last four. |
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05-26-21 | Dodgers -140 v. Astros | 2-5 | Loss | -140 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Seems similar to last night’s match-up, when it was Kershaw vs. Greinke. The Dodgers’ starter, in this case Trevor Bauer, is capable of going longer and giving up fewer runs than the Astros’ starter, in this case Luis Garcia. Bauer’s starts for L.A. have averaged 6.4 innings and his WHIP is 0.77. Garcia’s starts for Houston have averaged only 4.9 innings and while his WHIP is a fine 1.10, Bauer’s 0.77 is clearly stronger. Things being what they are, Bauer should exit with a lead and then it’s up to a pretty good Dodgers’ bullpen to do its job. |
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05-26-21 | Hawks v. Knicks -1.5 | 92-101 | Win | 100 | 4 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The New York Knicks were the best point spread team in the NBA this season, doing 45-26-1 ATS in all games prior to the playoffs. They return home to Madison Square Garden this evening on the heels of a Game One setback to Atlanta on Sunday knowing they are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS as a playoff favorite when coming off a SU favorite loss. On the flip side, Atlanta is 4-14 SU and 5-13 ATS in the playoffs versus a foe coming off a SU favorite loss, including 0-7 SUATS the last seven games. |
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05-26-21 | Braves v. Red Sox -135 | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Boston pitcher Nick Pivetta will try to keep his undefeated streak intact today against a very familiar foe. The right-hander (5-0, 3.59 ERA) will close the two-game series against the visiting Atlanta Braves, a team Pivetta has appeared against 15 times (12 starts). He will be opposed by left-hander Drew Smyly (2-2, 5.11). Pivetta is 5-2 with a 3.23 ERA in 15 games against Atlanta, including 3-0 as a member of the Philadelphia Phillies in 2017. But Pivetta said he has become a different pitcher since being acquired by Boston last August. "They gave me the confidence in myself, which was really good," he said. "They valued me, they traded for me, which was really nice of them. They valued me as a starter, which was huge, so it instilled a lot of confidence in me. They kind of let me be me, but they've helped me." He is 7-0 with a 3.28 ERA in 11 starts with Boston and is only the third pitcher to go unbeaten in their first 10 starts with the Red Sox, joining Mike Nagy in 1969 and Matt Clement in 2005. |
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05-26-21 | Wizards v. 76ers -8 | 95-120 | Win | 100 | 5 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We look at this game a lot like last night's Game 2 in the Celtics-Nets series. In Game 1 of the Celtics-Nets series, the underdog turned in a game effort. They led at halftime, but wilted late and couldn't even get the cover. Game 1 of this series saw Washington up midway through the third quarter. But the next six minutes proved decisive as the 76ers went on a 26-16 run and never look back. The Wizards basically played the Sixers even most of the game. But they probably can't expect to shoot 55.7% on the road again in Game 2. After all, Philadelphia is #2 in defensive efficiency. Washington gave up the most points per game of any team in the league during the regular season. The Wizards had to play those two play-in games, so Philadelphia is better rested at this point. We look for Game 2 to be a bit of a blowout, just like Game 2 of Celtics-Nets ended up being |
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05-26-21 | Penguins v. Islanders OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 121 | 1 h 50 m | Show |
Rating: 10 Unit NHL Total of the Week Consider that the over is 4-1 in Penguins last 5 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game and 10-3 in Penguins last 13 road games. While the over is 3-1-1 in Islanders last 5 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game. In addition the over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in New York. |
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05-25-21 | Mavs +7 v. Clippers | 127-121 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Maxi Kleber, who started at center in Game 1, is iffy here with an Achilles issue. It was a game of runs Saturday when Dallas upset L.A. The Clippers went on a 26-13 tear early in the game and Dallas connected on 11 straight points at one juncture. Luca Doncic is one tough 22-yearold player and he makes everybody around him better. If the Clippers want to win this series, they will have to get physical with Luca. Patrick Beverley will have to get under Luca’s skin and if that doesn’t work, Marcus Morris has to put a body on him. The Clips were outscored in every quarter on Saturday and Paul George only took 6 shots. L.A. shot 28% from deep and that probably will not happen here. In 73 games the season, the Clippers shot it at 41%. During the season, the Clippers were the second best team in the league in point differential |
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05-25-21 | Lakers -1.5 v. Suns | 109-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We’re starting to dislike Lebron. There is no way that Chris Paul is strong enough to make Lebron fall down simply by grazing him with his back turned. Lebron hurt his left shoulder (or made believe it was hurt) on his own flop. Come on, man. Although we picked the Lakers to win Game 1 by 2 points, a Game 1 loss by the Lakers, or any team with Lebron on it, is no surprise. It’s happened a lot in the past, eventually followed by a series win. He and his teammates – especially Anthony Davis – missed a heck of a lot of shots in the 99-90 defeat. Paul’s shoulder is probably in worse shape than Lebron’s, and as L.A. head coach Frank Vogel says, “If we hold this team to 99 points in Game 2, I feel good about our chances.” |
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05-25-21 | Mariners v. A's OVER 8 | 4-3 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units Mariners’ touted rookie Logan Gilbert has yet to distinguish himself after two starts that lasted 4, then 2 2/3 innings. He’s allowed 9 hits and 7 runs, facing two of the American League’s weakest hitting lineups, Cleveland and Detroit, at home. He may not be ready for prime time. Doubts about the Oakland pitching staff linger. Cole Irvin has been a regular in the rotation but after striking out 9 Blue Jays in an 8-inning start on May 4, he has thrown 17 2/3 innings in three starts since, whiffing a total of only 6. |
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05-25-21 | Cardinals +131 v. White Sox | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit MLB Play of the Day Lance Lynn gave the White Sox 7 innings of 3-hit, 1-run ball last night against the franchise which, after six seasons of pitching for them, five of them with a winning Won-Loss record, sent him on his way to what is currently a four-season, four-team, money-raking journey for the guy. The Cardinals had that coming to them from the baseball spirits, especially since Tony LaRussa, their former manager from 1995-2011, is leading the White Sox ten years after the Cardinals thought they’d put him out to pasture forever after two World Series wins, three NL pennants and nine post-season appearances. How satisfying a win was it? Glad we asked that question for you: “That was probably the most satisfying win in my career aside from the playoffs,” Lynn said. “I definitely enjoyed it.” Alrighty, then. But it’s a tough act to follow for their starter tonight, Lucas Giolito. He’s a fine and dandy young pitcher coming off 8 innings of 2-hit, 1-run ball at Minnesota — so he is his own tough act to follow, isn’t he now? Good things happen for the Cardinals when Jack Flaherty starts. So far in 2021, nine (9) good things (wins) and no (zero, 0) bad things (losses). |
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05-25-21 | Dodgers v. Astros +105 | 9-2 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 10 Units Right-hander Zack Greinke (4-1, 3.77 ERA) will start the opener for the Astros on Tuesday. He is coming off his best outing in four weeks, having allowed one run on four hits with eight strikeouts over eight innings in an 8-1 victory over the Oakland Athletics on May 19. The Astros feature one of the top offenses in the majors, leading the league in batting (.270) while ranking second in OPS (.761), third in on-base percentage (.334) and fourth in slugging (.427). |
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05-25-21 | Predators v. Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Consider that the under is 7-2-1 in Hurricanes last 10 vs. a team with a winning record, 13-5-2 in Hurricanes last 20 games as a home favorite, and 7-3 in Hurricanes last 10 home games. Also the Under is 9-3 in Predators last 12 vs. a team with a winning record and 11-4-2 in Predators last 17 games as an underdog. In addition, the under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings in Carolina and 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings. |
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05-25-21 | Padres +112 v. Brewers | 7-1 | Win | 112 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units A 1.79 ERA and 0.62 WHIP are just too good to be believed, as far as their chances of being sustained at those super-elite levels over the course of a season, or half-season. That the Brewers are only 2-5 in Corbin Burnes’ seven starts despite his excellent numbers suggests a few things: hitting woes, which they most certainly have had; and wasted opportunities from excellent efforts that seem to be due to level off. With the Padres loss here last night, they are nevertheless 9-1 in their last ten games and have all their guys back from the virus nonsense (which didn’t affect them in a bad way, at all!). They are a +73 Run Differential underdog visitor against a -17 Run Differential home favorite. Few bullpens can match Milwaukee’s for depth of quality but the Padres’ pen is equal or better, actually better to date for 2021 with an MLB-low 2.47 ERA and #2 WHIP of 1.09. |
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05-25-21 | Braves v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | 3-1 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units The Braves rid themselves of Charlie Morton batting in favor of a DH. Charlie Morton pitching hasn’t exactly been the Charlie Morton of recent seasons. He had four straight sub-par outings allowing 5,4, 6 and 3 runs in no more than 5 1/3 innings (and as little as 2/3 of an inning) before beating the Mets with 6 innings of 2-hit, 1-run ball last week. The Mets are pulling people off the street to hit the danged ball, so that effort by no means suggests that Charlie Morton of Astros and Rays post-season fame will be showing up in this ballpark tonight. Garrett Richards and Fenway Park aren’t getting along very well just yet. He has a 7.11 ERA in it after three starts, 12 1/3 innings in which opposing batters have 16 hits, scored 10 runs and are hitting .320 against him. |
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05-24-21 | Orioles -103 v. Twins | 3-8 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The long, black-bearded mediocrity called Matt Shoemaker is starting for the Twins tonight. That, in itself, is a decent enough reason to be on the other side. Shoemaker actually had a good outing against somebody other than Detroit in his last start (White Sox), but the Twins still managed to lose the game, and we were grateful for that. Having John Means as the Orioles starter adds another fine reason to be against the Twins, who continue to be set frequently at favored odds despite being tied for the American League’s most losses. Yes, we know that Baltimore is the team they are tied with and that the Orioles are 1-9 in their last ten games. But they’re 11-11 on the road and Minnesota is 8-15 in their home park. That’s something. Isn’t it? Means has a 1.70 ERA and 0.75 WHIP. That’s something else. |
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05-24-21 | Padres v. Brewers UNDER 7 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit MLB Total of the Day The Padres had the pleasure of facing the weakened Mariners bullpen over the weekend. Milwaukee’s is full strength and better to begin with. Nobody’s pen has been better than San Diego’s. So, you have two good bullpens behind two good starters. Brewers hitters have 0 home runs, a measly .185 Slugging Percentage and 1 RBI against Blake Snell in 39 at-bats against him. Padres hitters have 0 home runs, a .195 Slugging Percentage and only 4 RBI in 43 at-bats against Brandon Woodruff, who enters with a 1.58 ERA, 0.74 WHIP and 65-14 K-BB in 57 innings pitched. Snell has 60 Ks in 40 IP. |
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05-24-21 | Islanders v. Penguins -135 | 3-2 | Loss | -135 | 5 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units With their East Division series knotted at 2-2 and essentially down to a best-of-three beginning today, the New York Islanders and Pittsburgh Penguins are looking for buy-in. The Islanders felt they got that Saturday in a 4-1 win at home, playing their signature tough defensive style while seizing on opportunities to score. "If you look at when we have success, everybody contributes and we rely on each other," New York coach Barry Trotz said. "There's a great brotherhood in our (locker) room, and there's a style that we play. Everybody has a piece of the big picture." The Islanders also recognize that Pittsburgh, the top seed in the division, can be expected to rebound Monday at home. "Whatever we did (in Game 4), they've probably already forgotten about it, and they're going to be fresh for Game 5," Islanders center Mathew Barzal said. And, apparently, ready to return to their noted style of playing a speed game that relies on getting the puck deep in their opponent's end and attacking the net. "We can't kind of wait and see, and have that type of approach," Penguins center Sidney Crosby said. "We've got to go in there and dictate the pace." Pittsburgh missed its chance to take a commanding 3-1 series lead Saturday in large part because of an uncharacteristic lack of offense. "It's just going to take hard work and stick-to-itiveness," Penguins coach Mike Sullivan said. "We've just got to stay with it. "I don't think we were quite as sharp (Saturday). We didn't have as many looks as we had in the first few games. We're going to have to work for those moving forward. But these guys are good offensive players." |
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05-24-21 | Phillies v. Marlins UNDER 7 | 6-9 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Trevor Rogers is becoming a folk hero in Miami with his 6-2 won-loss record from nine starts,1.74 ERA and 1.05 WHIP, and 65-19 K-BB in 51 2/3 innings. Rogers has allowed a total of only 3 home runs, and more than 2 runs in a game just once, when he gave up 3 in a 3-1 loss. He has won three shutouts, and then his last three outings by 3-1, 5-1 and 6-1 scores. We were on him in the 3-1 win, noting that while the Phillies got 9 hits and 9 runs in 3 innings against him in a game last season, he’d improved dramatically since then. Meanwhile, only one MLB starter has a K-BB Ratio better than Zach Eflin’s 11.4 to 1. That would be Yankees’ ace Gerritt Cole (11.5 to 1). For further purposes of comparison, the fine pitcher we’re on in the game above, John Means, has a 5.36 to 1 K-BB Ratio |
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05-23-21 | Grizzlies v. Jazz -9 | 112-109 | Loss | -101 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Memphis played with grit, determination and +7 in steals beating Golden State on Friday to get this opportunity. They are young, talented and this post season will give them a chance to build for what should be a bright future. But they are probably 2 pieces away from being a legit contender and will have their hands full with Utah. Memphis lost to the Jazz three times in a span of 7 days this season. Their rally on March 26 fell short by 3 points on a night when 2 Jazz starters had 7 points total. They were blown out by 16 points after the 3/26 game and in the final game of the regular season with Utah, the Jazz reserves outscored the Memphis bench 35 to 13. Memphis was 1-3 in games after playing overtime this season and the win in that span came against a club that could only manage 22 wins all season. The average margin of defeat in the three Memphis losses after overtime was 12.6 points. Donovan Mitchell practiced Thursday for Utah and if he is able to go, it will obviously help the Jazz rotation. It will also take some scoring pressure off of Mike Conley and Jordan Clarkson. Utah took more shots from downtown than any team this season. They hit 39%, tied for 2nd in the Association. Memphis was 18th in the league in defensive three point field-goal percentage. Utah only lost 5 of 36 games at home this season. If Memphis doesn’t guard Bojan Bogdanovic from the right corner, the Grizzlies will be in trouble. Bojan hit 60 right corner three-point shots this season at 46%. |
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05-23-21 | Bruins -131 v. Capitals | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Boston leads their series with the Washington Capital’s 3 games to 1 but this series could be easily 3-1 to Washington. The Bruins trailed at least once in each of the first three games and were down to the final couple of minutes before getting the equalizer and winning in overtime. Washington did not play well in game four allowing the Bruins to score on three of five power-play chances. Rask looks great between the pipes for the Bruins and Washington hasn't been able to solve him when it counts. I like Boston to close this one out. |
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05-23-21 | Hawks +1 v. Knicks | 107-105 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Knicks fashioned a 3-0 regular-season sweep of the Hawks. “They” say that the playoffs are very different from the regular season. If that’s true, then in this instance it would mean that Atlanta will win the series. A good way to win the series is to win Game 1 on the road. The shooters surrounding Clint Capela for the Hawks – Trae Young, Bogan Bogdanovic, Danilo Gallinari, Lou |
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05-23-21 | Mariners v. Padres OVER 7 | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 3 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units Again, as was the case for yesterday’s Over, the Padres’ lineup is back to full strength. The Mariners’ bullpen is gutted by positive virus tests and absentees. Although Yu Darvish is an ace capable of pitching a shutout against the team that gets the fewest hits per game in what you call your Major League Baseball, the Padres are capable of exceeding this Total on their own. Justin Dunn isn’t likely to give them more than 5 innings. He walks too many (22 in 32 IP). The Mariners’ bullpen is stocked with minor league call-ups for the next seven days. And after Darvish exits, the Padres can afford to use ‘B’ relievers with a lead in an Interleague game. |
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05-22-21 | A's -136 v. Angels | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit MLB Play of the Day Chris Bassitt has started Oakland victories at Boston and at Minnesota for us in his last two outings. Tonight he’s on the road again facing, like the Twins, a last-place opponent. The Angels have a -47 Run Differential, closing in on Detroit for worst in the American League. They were a lousy team before Mike Trout went on the Injured List and are 1-4 since that day, winning when Alex Cobb threw some blistering innings for them, and us, against the — last-place — Twins. Two weeks ago, the Orange County Register reported that Angels manager Joe Maddon “values Patrick Sandoval as middle-innings closer.” He values him so much in that role that he’s starting today. “I love middle-inning closers. That’s been a big part of the success that I’ve been around in the past.” Yeah, well, try not to live in the past. That’s what propelled him to bring lefty Jose Quintana to the Angels, for yet another loss last night, when his “middle-inning closer” Mike Mayers turned a 4-3 lead into a 6-4 deficit in a hurry. Some reports say “Dylan Bundy” for the Angels, who’s been getting hammered lately, falling in line with what happens to most pitchers when they come to the Angels. Either, or. |
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05-22-21 | Mariners v. Padres OVER 7.5 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units The Padres’ lineup is back to full strength. The Mariners’ bullpen is gutted by positive virus tests and absentees. The non-infected crew rose to the occasion here last night by… allowing 8 runs after starter Chris Flexen choked and allowed 8 of his own in 1 2/3 innings! Justus Sheffield is always an accident waiting to happen and even if he does well, the Seattle bullpen situation is not good. This is one of those instances where the Padres seem like they can exceed the Total on their own. It’s an Inter-league game, so the ‘A’ bullpen guys wouldn’t necessarily need to be called upon after Weathers’ night is done after probably no more than 5 innings. |
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05-22-21 | Red Sox v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -114 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Red Sox reward for hammering the heck out of Phillies’ ace Aaron Nola and the bullpen last night is to step in against Spencer Howard. This guy owes us money. He spent most of his rookie 2020 season giving the Phillies deficits to overcome, following big hype that wasn’t met. He had a 5.92 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in six starts for them last season. So far, they’ve let him throw just 4 1/3 innings this season and he’s allowed 4 runs on 6 hits. The Red Sox Nathan Eovaldi is having a decent enough season but as a fastball pitcher with good control, you can’t help but see 2 homers coming from Bryce Harper, who’s hitting .381 against Eovaldi. Hoskins, Joyce, McCutcheon and Segura are at .333, .300, .429 and .333 against him. |
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05-22-21 | Dodgers -160 v. Giants | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Since the beginning of last season, the Dodgers are 16-4 (80% wins) when Walker Buehler starts. He’s 4-0 vs. the Giants in his MLB career, during which San Francisco batters currently on the team have gotten only 13 hits in 66 at-bats (.197 BAA), just two of them for extra bases. Maybe this is why the Giants are “Undecided” about who to start against him? Because it doesn’t matter? An 80% pitcher’s odds figure to be less than 80% in this match-up, which would lift the Dodgers into an NL West first-place tie with the Giants if they win (although the Padres can beat the virus-depleted bullpen of Seattle and lead the division by one game after their 10:10 pm game is completed). |
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05-22-21 | Pirates v. Braves OVER 9.5 | 1-6 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units After pounding out 20 runs on 20 hits to do a psyche job against the Pirates pitching staff last night, the Braves only need to face Mitch Keller today. The Braves have been woeful against left-handed pitching but pretty good against righties. The Pirates’ righty Keller has a 7.16 ERA and 1.81 WHIP. Arrgh. Atlanta’s Bryse Wilson still hasn’t approached that 6 inning, 1-hit job he threw in the post-season vs. the Dodgers. His ERA is 5.50, his WHIP 1.61. |
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05-22-21 | Orioles v. Nationals -152 | 9-12 | Win | 100 | 5 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Orioles have fallen a full 10 games below .500 following last night's loss in the series opener (2-8, -$530 last 10 days, with a 5.57 ERA among starters). The Nats have an edge with veteran Jon Lester (3.80 ERA) on the mound vs. Bruce Zimmermann (-$385, 5.40 ERA in six starts). The NL East is very competitive, and the Nats are in good shape, especially with Stephen Strasburg |
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05-22-21 | Penguins -101 v. Islanders | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -101 | 3 h 15 m | Show |
Rating: 10 UnitNHL Game of the Week For the Islanders, the intrigue extends beyond the growing disdain between the teams. Trotz expressed disappointment Thursday night with goalie Semyon Varlamov, who allowed the five goals on just 27 shots. Varlamov had missed Sunday's Game 1 due to an undisclosed injury and watched rookie Ilya Sorokin registered 39 saves in a 4-3 overtime win. In Tuesday's Game 2, Varlamov surrendered two goals in the first 13:07 of a 2-1 loss that tied the series. Varlamov was the Islanders' goalie for each of their first 14 games in the playoff bubble last summer. But after back-to-back losses in Games 5 and 6 of the Eastern Conference semifinals against the Philadelphia Flyers, Trotz benched Varlamov for Thomas Greiss, who authored a shutout in a 4-0 win in Game 7. Varlamov started all six games of the conference finals against the Tampa Bay Lightning. Trotz wasn't about to publicly identify his goalie Friday afternoon ahead of Game 4. But while he said upon reviewing the game he was less critical of Varlamov's performance, he also sounded like someone still contemplating a goalie change. |
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05-21-21 | Grizzlies v. Warriors -4.5 | 117-112 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 units Memphis lost 2 of the 3 games they played this season against the Warriors. They scored 105 a night vs. the Warriors, about 8 points below their average. Memphis hit only 29% against Golden State from deep and that is no fluke as the Warriors were third this season in defensive three-point field-goal percentage. In the game Memphis won against the Californians, Draymond Green only had 7 points and 2 other Golden State starters were a combined 8 for 27 from the floor. Steph Curry only played in one game this season against the Grizzlies but he went for 46 points hitting on 9 of 22 from downtown. The Warriors lost a heartbreaker to the Lakers on Wednesday. Despite not getting a ton of clean looks, Curry poured in 37 points. The Lakers used a swarming defense to entice Curry to give up the ball, especially in the first quarter, and his teammates didn’t perform. The ball stuck on the Golden State side with only 19 assists and the Warriors turned it over 20 times. Turnovers has been a concern for the Warriors even in the glory days but they turned it over 5 times more than their average vs. the Lakers. The assists are a different story as the Warriors were tied for first in the league in assists at 28 a game. Look for Draymond Green to be aggressive here and expect Curry to come out firing at the sound of the bell. |
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05-21-21 | Astros v. Rangers +110 | 5-7 | Win | 110 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Five days ago, the Rangers’ Kyle Gibson pitched 7 innings of 4-hit, 2-run ball against the Astros and left a 2-2 game. Reliever Joely Rodriguez came in and ruined everything, allowing 4 hits and 4 runs in 2/3 of an inning. Gibson, having a terrific season (2.32 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, an average of 6 innings per start) was matched against Lance McCullers in that game. Tonight the Astros go with 25-year-old Tyler Ivey in his Major League debut. Ivey grew up a Rangers fan living about 15 miles away from where the Rangers play their home games. That’s nice, he’ll have his people in the stands and all that, and perhaps that’s why the Astros targeted this as his first MLB appearance. But they can’t throw pitches for him. After Texas was swept in the four-game series at Houston last week — facing Greinke, McCullers, Garcia and Javier — Ivey has to be considered a cut or two below those guys until he proves otherwise, coming in with unimpressive recent minor league numbers. |
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05-21-21 | Twins v. Indians -123 | 10-0 | Loss | -123 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Instead of originally scheduled Kenta Maeda, the Twins are switching to Randy Dobnak, who has pitched only in relief for them so far this season: 14 1/3 innings with a 8.16 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. Uh-oh. Since he doesn’t figure to go deep into the start, and the Twins’ bullpen is lousy, and four relievers pitched in yesterday’s doubleheader in Anaheim, and one reliever (Tyler Duffey) is suspended, and the hitters and fielders could be a little jet-lagged after they played a pair on the West Coast yesterday then flew overnight across as many times zones as is possible within the Continental United States, the team with the second-worst winning percentage in MLB (.349) could have landed in a better situation under better circumstances, ya’ think? |
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05-21-21 | White Sox -105 v. Yankees | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit MLB Play of the Day We’ve been through this drill before but let’s lay out the details never the less: The AL Central -leading White Sox arrive in New York with the best batting average against left-handed pitching (.297), the highest On base Percentage (.376) and the best Slugging Percentage (.486). They’ve had only 296 at-bats vs. lefties, compared to 693 for the Houston Astros. While it may seem like a sample too short to be serious, it’s an extension of last season when they were 14-0 when the opponent started a lefty. They are 9-2 in that scenario this season, averaging 8.6 runs per game when the other side starts a lefty. The Yankees comply with Chicago’s “go” situation, serving up Jordan Montgomery. Throw out his stats. The White Sox’ Carlos Rodon won’t be pitching a no-hitter like he did in April but he is enjoying a resurgence. The team is 5-1 when he starts. He last faced the Yankees in 2019, at Yankee Stadium, winning a 6-2 game in which he pitched 6 innings and allowed 3 hits. |
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05-21-21 | White Sox v. Yankees OVER 8 | 1-2 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units If their average holds, then the White Sox would go Over this total on their own. They average 8.6 runs per game when the other teams starts a lefty (Montgomery). Of course, they haven’t gotten all these runs against lefty starters. They do pretty well against right-handed relievers, too. The White Sox rank #2 in MLB in runs per game on the road, 5.9. Carlos Rodon has a no-hitter to his credit and is enjoying a nice comeback season but there is a lot of right-handed power in the Yankees lineup for this lefty to tap-dance around. |
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05-21-21 | Orioles v. Nationals OVER 8.5 | 2-4 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units With no DH, the Orioles, who have dipped to an average of only 3.91 runs per game, must face Steven Strasburg in his first start off the injured list. The last time Strasburg pitched fresh, he went 6 innings and allowed 1 hit to Atlanta. Good luck… some other time. The Orioles are visiting an opponent who is also in the Sub-4 Runs Per Game Club (3.85) and before the Nationals hitters figure out Jorge Lopez, he could be outta there. |
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05-21-21 | Capitals +1.5 v. Bruins | 1-4 | Loss | -190 | 6 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units After three straight games decided by a razor-thin margin, the Washington Capitals and Boston Bruins know what to expect when they converge on the ice. Craig Smith's goal early in the second overtime of Game 3 Wednesday night continued that trend, giving the Bruins a second straight overtime victory, 3-2, in the NHL-record 12th consecutive one-goal game between the teams in the playoffs. Samsonov was thrust into action Wednesday after coming off the COVID-19 list with Anderson sitting out for a maintenance day. The former No. 22 overall draft pick settled in nicely and smothered the majority of Boston's chances in his 40-save effort. One momentary lapse proved costly, though, as Samsonov was slow to get back into position after playing the puck behind the net and Smith took advantage to score the overtime winner. |
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05-20-21 | Pacers v. Wizards -3 | 115-142 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Indiana came out and punched Charlotte in the mouth on Tuesday. The Hornets played like a deer in the headlights, the Pacers hit just about everything they attempted early and the game was pretty much over after Indy led by 24 points at the half. The Pacers did get a break when Charlotte’s starting guards were a combined 11 for 34. Despite Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook shooting just 16 for 43 from the field in the loss to Boston on Tuesday, the Wizards still cut the lead to 7 points at one juncture in the fourth quarter. The Wizards were just 3 for 21 (14%) from beyond the arc but they shot it at 35% from deep during the season. They should bounce back against a team that has struggled to defend for much of the season. Washington beat the Pacers without Beal at the end of March and they also beat the Pacers 17 nights ago when Beal had and efficient game and Westbrook had 21 boards and 24 dimes. In that May 3 game, Indy’s Caris LeVert had 33 points, 7 boards, 5 assists and 2 blocks. Caris will not play here. Washington also beat Indy on May 8 behind 50 points from Beal and 33 from Westbrook. Washington has lost consecutive games only once in the last month and a half. |
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05-20-21 | Red Sox +119 v. Blue Jays | 8-7 | Win | 119 | 7 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Untis The Red Sox evened the series with a 7-3 win over Ross Stripling, and they are nicely poised to prevail in tonight's rubber match. Nick Pivetta has led Boston to wins in 7 of his 8 appearances (+$690 with an ERA on 3.16). The Red Sox are now 9-5 vs. lefthanders (+$250) and they've been a big money-maker outside of Fenway Park (+$825). Steven Matz has been inconsistent (4.29 ERA) so we'll take the underdog price on the visitor. |
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05-20-21 | Twins v. Angels +105 | 1-7 | Win | 105 | 3 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units They’re making the Twins work hard for their money. After a whole lotta games against first-place Oakland and Chicago White Sox, they have to fly all the way out to Los Angeles from Minneapolis to play two games today against the Angels, before they fly back to Cleveland to start a weekend series tomorrow. Jose Berrios is slated to start Game 2 for them and he may be able to bail them out, but young Aussie Lewis Thorpe is the scheduled starter here, with that lousy bullpen behind him. Twins manager Rocco Baldelli could have saved our boy Matt Shoemaker for a start against the Angels, his former team, with that extra motivational edge. But no, he used him yesterday. it was just another move he could have made but didn’t, in defeat. And he’s made a lot of moves, in defeat. Quite often, a team that is dropping in class after losing many games to higher-placed foes will “wake up.” But that’s usually when they’re home. And the Angels are in the same boat, having lost a ton of games recently to legitimate contenders Tampa Bay, the Dodgers, Houston, Boston and Cleveland — 12 of their last 17, to be exact. Alex (“I’ve a Blister on My Finger!”) Cobb returns from the Injured List. No Mike Trout but they weren’t exactly a powerhouse with him and the Twins find ways to lose. |
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05-20-21 | Astros v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 2 h 23 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Units MLB Play of the Day The Astros are hitting .284 vs. left-handed pitching, third highest in MLB with the third highest OPS. Oakland lefty Cole Irvin has been pitching well lately, getting his ERA down from 7.45 after two starts to 3.02 entering this game. However, the 7.45 after two starts was totally against the Astros’ lineup, against whom he totaled 9 2/3 innings while giving up 8 runs and 12 hits, whiffing only 5. So, good luck to him… some other time, of course. The Astros are awaiting the return of Framber Valdez to their rotation and until then, they must make do with a guy like second-season spot starter Luis Garcia in the rotation. He’s been doing fine but he is only 47 1/3 innings into his Major League career. |
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05-20-21 | Nationals v. Cubs OVER 10 | 2-5 | Loss | -120 | 1 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units There has been a 12-14 mph breeze blowing out to left field at Wrigley Field and the nervous linemaker overreacted yesterday, making a rather high number of 9 for last night’s match-up between classy, veteran righthanders, Max Scherzer and Jake Arrieta. The teams combined for only 7 runs. Today, in full daylight, ‘The Man’ adds only 1 run to his Total as the starters change to non-classy, younger righthanders Joe Ross (Ooh! Ooh!) and Trevor Williams. Ross didn’t play last season and before that, going back three seasons, had ERA/WHIPs of 5.48/1.67, 5.06/1.31, 5.01/1.47. The Nationals allowed him to return to them despite this display of below-averageness, and he is giving them more of the same: 5.80/1.46. Javier Baez, Wilson Contreras and Anthony Rizzo are thinking, ‘Gee, wish we coulda faced this guy last year!’ as they carry .500, .500 and .417 Batting Average Against Ross into today’s game, in limited opportunities of course (6, 4, 12 at-bats). Meanwhile, the one-year contract of Chicago’s Trevor Williams is proving to be one of the worst $2.5 million investments in the history of mankind, with his 6.27 ERA and 1.82 WHIP after 8 starts, in which he has pitched a total of only 33 innings (that’s an average of 4 innings per start). And they charge people money to get through the gates to watch him. |
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05-19-21 | Blues v. Avalanche UNDER 5.5 | 3-6 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Taking nothing away from the performance of Colorado goaltender Philipp Grubauer, but the Blues didn’t generate many scoring opportunities in Game 1. Vladimir Tarasenko had a couple of prime opportunities in the first period but couldn’t convert, then the rest of the time the Aves did a tremendous job of clearing the puck out of their zone in quick fashion. The Blues are also expected to be without David Perron again, as he remains on the COVID-19 list. St. Louis GM Doug Armstrong released a statement on Wednesday that stated the team had “discovered discrepancies in Covid test results relating to multiple players” and is working with the league to address said discrepancies. Whether or not that means Perron will be cleared to play by game time is not known, but assuming he’s out again, the Blues will struggle offensively. Meanwhile, Jordan Binnington was sensational in net for the Blues in Game 1. I expect the Blues to tighten things up defensively in front of Binnington tonight but even if they don’t, he has proven to raise his level of play in the postseason. I’m confident he’ll play well again tonight. |
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05-19-21 | Warriors v. Lakers -5.5 | 100-103 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units “Can the Warriors offense score enough to upset the Lakers in the play-in game?,” a pre-game story in a paper wants to know. Valid question. Since mid-March, Golden State has averaged 1.13 points per possession, which is in Knicks/Spurs territory. But when you take a look at the opposition they played as the regular-season wound down, it looks like a Who’s Who of NBA Bad Defense: Washington, Sacramento, Dallas, Minnesota, New Orleans three times, Oklahoma City twice, all within their final 14 games since Apr. 21. They closed out the regular season with six consecutive home wins. They play this on the road, against an opponent that beat them here 117-91 on Feb. 28, then 128-97 here on Mar. 15. Assuming Lebron James and Dennis Schroder are healthy and good to go, the Lakers have the defensive length to hold the Warriors under 100 again, and full offensive capabilities – the latter of which they haven’t had in a while. The line has moved from an opener of Lakers, -7 down to -4.5. Okay, sure, “Lakers” seems too obvious all things being equal (and in the rebounding department and at the rim, they most certainly are not equal). Maybe somebody knows something about why things may not equal. We shall see. |
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05-19-21 | Nationals -147 v. Cubs | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cubs beat the Nats again last night, but the visitor has its best chance for a victory this evening with staff ace Max Scherzer on the mound. The veteran is off to a fantastic start in 2021 (2.10 ERA in eight appearances) and he'll be taking on a Chicago team that is only 10-17 vs. righthanders (-$715, averaging just 3.7 runs per game). Jake Arrieta has not looked sharp in recent outings (8.68 ERA last two) so we'll take the road favorite tonight. |
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05-19-21 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Units The Blue Jays held up their end of the bargain last night with 8 runs in their home park, where they’d entered averaging 6.14. But the Red Sox ran into a buzzsaw. Some of them had handled Hyun-Jin Ryu in the past. But last night, they did not. Running into Ross Stripling can hopefully offset last night’s blanking. Stripling has yet to show that switching from the National League to the American will be good for him, with a 5.91 ERA and 1.69 WHIP so far, only 21 1/3 IP from five starts. Last season he pitched 15 2/3 innings for Toronto after getting traded to them, with a 6.32 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. Not lookin’ good for the guy. |
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05-19-21 | Spurs v. Grizzlies -4 | 96-100 | Push | 0 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Spurs had a tough schedule to close out the regular season as they lost 4 in a row but they were facing teams like Brooklyn, the Knicks and Phoenix (twice). But teams have been able to cheat on the Texans at times since they were 24th in offensive three-point field-goal percentage. Memphis finished the regular season just outside the top 10 in defensive field-goal percentage. They competed to the end of the regular games winning 5 of 6 and 6 of 8 and they beat Dallas during this time frame. Memphis lost to the Spurs on the opening night of the season when San Antonio was just more aggressive as they got to the free-throw line 11 more times against what was then a very depth-shy Grizzlies bunch. With more bodies on hand, Memphis beat the Spurs in back-to-back games when they had 71 assists combined in the 2 games. Memphis also shot 49% and 50% from deep in those wins. Jaren Jackson Jr. missed all the games with the Spurs this season but he’s been a big part of the Memphis success. Jaren has averaged 14 points and 6 boards. |
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05-19-21 | Marlins +119 v. Phillies | 3-1 | Win | 119 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Marlins have won 5 of 8 Trevor Rogers starts and the lefty has allowed fewer hits than innings pitched in seven of his eight, plus one in which he allowed 6 hits and 0 runs in a 6-0 win. He enters tonight’s game with a 1.84 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Full disclosure: Rogers faced the Phillies one time as a rookie last season. He struck out five of the first seven batters, but then gave up 9 runs on 9 hits in his 3 innings. Young pitchers tend to make their biggest improvement in their second season and Rogers has certainly been on that path. Do the Phillies own him after that one try, or was it simply one of those days, which has since been followed by good ones? The Marlins have won four of Rogers’ last five starts, the only loss coming when he hooked Max Scherzer. Zach Eflin is not Max Scherzer and has allowed more hits than innings pitched in four of his last five starts. |
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05-19-21 | Rays v. Orioles UNDER 8 | 9-7 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Orioles have only 8 hits in 60 at-bats against Ryan Yarbrough of the Rays. The guys with the most at-bats against him — Trey Mancini and Pedro Severino — are hitting .143 and .167 against him. The Rays’ pen is the Ray’s pen — reliable. Baltimore starter John Means has been consistently good. Some guys follow up no-hitters by giving up 5 runs in 5 innings and losing. He followed up on his with 6 innings of shutout ball at the Mets. They’re giving him eight days in between starts just to be cautious with a guy they consider a #1 starter, who has three seasons remaining before he can be a free agent. His ERA is 1.21, his WHIP 0.71. He is striking out more than 1 batter per inning. The Rays strike out a lot. He beat them 2-1 here last September. |
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05-19-21 | Capitals v. Bruins OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 0 m | Show |
Rating: 10 Unit Total of the Week Consider that the over is 18-5-3 in Capitals last 26 games playing on 1 days rest and 6-2-1 in Capitals last 9 games as a road underdog. While the over is 4-1-1 in Bruins last 6 games as a home favorite and 4-1-1 in Bruins last 6 home games |
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05-19-21 | White Sox -118 v. Twins | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 2 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The long, black-bearded mediocrity called Matt Shoemaker is starting for the Twins, with his 6.62 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in his first seven starts for them. They tried to sneak him past us in the only early afternoon game on this beautiful day. Ah, nice try. His presence seems like a good reason to be on the other side. The guy can only pitch well against the Tigers. Who they playin’? Not the Tigers. Although the AL Central leading White Sox identity has been to hammer the heck out of left-handed starters into submission to the point where everybody and his brother knows about it, and Shoemaker throws with his right, last-place AL Central Minnesota has lost every game started by Shoemaker except his two against Detroit. The five losing scores of those games were 6-1, 11-3, 6-2, 7-0, 8-6. |
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05-18-21 | Wild v. Golden Knights -165 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 2 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Minnesota Wild and the Vegas Golden Knights meet in game two of their West division First round matchup. The Wild came away with a hard-fought 1-0 win in overtime in game one. They will look to get a 2-0 lead with a win tonight. Vegas outshot Minnesota 19-5 in the first period but couldn't find the back of the net. This is a must-win for the Knights and I like them to do just that in a big way. |
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05-18-21 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | 0-8 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Blue Jays are averaging 6.14 runs per game in their ‘home’ ballpark in Florida, and 9.43 hits per game. Both numbers are #1 in the American League. The Red Sox are averaging 5.0 runs per game on the road, #7 in MLB away from home. Toronto starter Hyun-Jin Ryu has a good reputation and good numbers after 7 starts, like his 2.95 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. But only one of his seven starts has been in this ballpark! And the Red Sox Bogaerts, Chavis, Martinez and Plawecki are hitting .400, .333, .308 and .400 against him. Meanwhile, Toronto’s Teoscar Hernandez should just put a leash around Eduardo Rodriguez and take him home as a pet: 5-for-14 (.357) with 3 home runs. |
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